AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
837 PM MDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
00Z/17 NAM12 COMING IN THROUGH MON EVENING. LATEST WATER VAPOR                  
IMAGERY/RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED THE NEXT WEATHER                    
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CRITICAL                 
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET ACROSS MUCH OF S CNTRL AND                  
SERN CO MON LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING...AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM                
APPROACHES THE CNTRL ROCKIES MON AFTN AND NGT. THE ONLY PLACE                   
THAT MAY BE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS. THE                    
WIND/WIND GUSTS PART OF CRITERIA MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MEET.                      
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 22-                    
26KTS...WHICH WOULD MEET THE WIND GUST PART OF THE RED FLAG                     
CRITERIA. ACTUALLY...THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WINDS                
JUST OFF THE GROUND IN SERN CO COMPARED TO THE NAM PER MODEL                    
SOUNDINGS. LOOKING AT THE SFC OBS ACROSS AZ AND UT TODAY...THERE                
HAVE BEEN ALMOST WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20-40KTS JUST AHEAD OF                
THE WEATHER SYSTEM. REACHING THE LOW HUMIDITY PART OF THE CRITERIA              
WILL BE NO PROBLEM IN THE WARNING AREA WITH VALUES OF 10 PERCENT                
OR LESS...JUST LIKE TODAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE POOR               
ALONG OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS ERN SLOPES AND SERN CO PLAINS.                       
TEMPERATURES DURING PEAK HEATING WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE                 
AVERAGE READINGS FOR MIDDLE APRIL. THE HAINES STABILITY INDICE WILL             
BE 5 AND 6 ACROSS S CNTRL AND SERN CO...AND OF COURSE MUCH OF SRN               
CO IS IN A MODERATE-EXTREME DROUGHT. THE 1 HOUR TO 100 HOUR FUELS               
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT ALREADY AND ITS ONLY APRIL. FOR               
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS...AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY              
THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE 11AM-9PM MDT.                  
HOWEVER...THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS MIGHT BE MORE LIKE 3PM-9PM MDT                 
FOR ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO COME TOGETHER. I WILL LEAVE THE                   
CURRENT TIME FRAME OF 11AM-9PM MDT FOR ALL THE RED FLAG AREA DUE                
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE ACTUAL START TIME IN THE FAR SERN CO                 
PLAINS. METZE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 324 PM MDT SUN APR 16 2006)                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)                                                          
CURRENTLY...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ON THE                 
PLAINS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...50S AND 60S MTN                  
VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S MTNS. SAT PIX SHOWS YDAYS WIND STORM JUST             
TO THE W OF THE GREAT LAKES. OUR NEXT WX SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING             
ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST.                                                       
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECIDED FOR NOW            
TO LEAVE THE FIRE WEATHER HILITE AS A WATCH FOR TOMORROW. I AM                  
PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT FIRE WX WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET IN THE               
SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT I AM NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THE PLAINS. REASON FOR            
THIS IS THE LEE TROUGH IS FCST TO BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE             
MORNING...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.                
ATTM...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WINDS MAY NOT REACH FIRE WX                  
WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AT ALL TOMORROW....WITH A BETTER         
CHANCE OF REACHING CRITERIA ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR ONCE THE TROUGH             
MOVES EAST. IF THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE NOW IS A BIT                           
SLOWER...THEN WIND CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET ON THE PLAINS AT ALL.                
SINCE WE HAVE 4 MORE GUIDANCE RUNS TO LOOK AT...LEFT WATCH AS IS                
AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE TO UPGRADE OR REMOVE IT.                       
OTHERWISE FOR TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE HI CLOUDS OVER              
MOST OF THE AREA. THE POPS THAT WE HAD IN THE C MTNS FOR LATE                   
TOMORROW REMAIN AS IS...BUT TWEAKED LOCATION/POP AMOUNTS JUST A BIT             
TO REFLECT LATEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL...ANOTHER NICE DAY TOMORROW.                
\/HODANISH                                                                      
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE EXTENT OF MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND                   
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/PLAINS WINDS WITH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NRN CO               
MON NIGHT/TUES...                                                               
NAM12/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...THOUGH                
GFS IS A TOUCH DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE TROF WHICH MOVES ACROSS               
NORTHERN CO MONDAY NIGHT. AS TROF APPROACHES...SNOW SHOULD                      
INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...AND                
GET HEAVIER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES                    
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE                
NRN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF CWA...PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE ADJACENT                
PLAINS NORTH OF WALSENBURG AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BORA COLD FRONT MOVES              
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY STILL BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR                   
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TO SPREAD INTO THE LOWER                  
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS AROUND                 
MIDNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AID IN                         
TRANSPORTING STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SFC AS LOW LVLS REMAIN              
QUITE DRY INITIALLY.  HOWEVER...NORTHERLY COLD FRONT QUICKLY                    
ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF THE SE PLAINS BY 12Z...WHICH                  
CUTS OFF THE OPPORTUNITY FOR POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS BY EARLY                      
MORNING. GIVEN THE BREVITY WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGH WIND                         
HIGHLIGHTS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOKS MUCH COOLER ON                  
TUESDAY THAN RUNS I SAW YESTERDAY. MID SHIFT ALREADY LOWERED TUES               
MAXT GRIDS AND I CONTINUED THE TREND. OTHER CHANGES WERE TO                     
INCREASE POPS FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION. GFS/NAM12 STILL DIFFER                 
WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH               
FAIRLY DEEP COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH...PALMER DVD REGION SHOULD SEE                
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING. EVEN AFTER TROF                 
PASSAGE...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET SOME SNOW                    
DURING THE DAY AIDED BY NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.               
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE HIGHER                   
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES.                                  
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FOR BY TUES NIGHT AND WITH H7                   
TEMPS RANGING FROM -4 TO -7C...SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT ACROSS               
THE SE PLAINS IN A WHILE...WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING TO AROUND OR BELOW           
FREEZING. COOLED OFF MINT GRID SEVERAL DEGREES...AND LATER SHIFTS               
MAY NEED TO DROP THEM FURTHER.                                                  
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH FRI WITH                   
TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                     
GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HOLDS THE NEXT                 
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING IT                
INLAND ON SUNDAY. GFS STILL OPENS UP THE GULF AND SPREADS LOW LVL               
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SE COLORADO BEGINNING SATURDAY AND                      
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL KEEP THE SILENT POPS ACROSS THE                 
EAST UNTIL SUN WHEN THE UPPER LOW MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST                    
ENHANCING LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. -KT                     
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ221-COZ222-               
COZ224-COZ225-COZ226-COZ227-COZ228-COZ229-COZ230-COZ231-COZ232-                 
COZ233-COZ234-COZ235-COZ236-COZ237.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1211 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER MAIN CONCERN. ALREADY SPINNING UP FOR TOR                
WATCH 193...SO WILL KEEP THIS SHORT.                                            
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...                                      
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND UPPER H5 TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS           
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS INCREASED THE DAY ONE TOR GRAPHIC TO             
15% IN RESPONSE TO SHEAR PROFILES AND DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE              
ACROSS THE C IL. RUC AND ETA 12 INDICATE STORMS ERUPTING EARLY THIS             
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE EVENING. SEVERAL LINES OF                 
STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ROTATING SUPERCELLS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE             
STRONG TORNADOES. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE IS INDICATING THE BEST                  
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PEORIA TO                   
EFFINGHAM...ESPECIALLY IN THE SPRINGFIELD AND JACKSONVILLE AREA                 
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES INTO C IL BY              
00Z... WE WILL SEE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPAND EASTWARD               
INTO THE BLOOMINGTON...CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE AREAS.                            
THE SEVERE STORMS WILL LAST UNTIL 10 PM IN OUR EASTERN AREAS...BUT              
SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN THE LOW WILL BE                
INTO INDIANA...AND OUR AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY AND COOL AND ALL               
LEVELS. KEPT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE GRIDS UNTIL                 
MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THE                  
ILLINOIS RIVER AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.                                      
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                          
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON               
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO MOVE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE TIMING               
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS MODELS...AND I PULLED             
PRECIP FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LOWERED THE CHANCES TUESDAY                 
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE PRE FRONTAL PRECIP WILL REACH OUR W CWA                 
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE             
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE FRONT SHEARS OUT AND SLOWS DOWN.                
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER TO OUR NW OVER THE SD/IA BORDER                
UNTIL THURSDAY...SO I KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS IN PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN            
PORTION OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER IN THE                   
CENTRAL EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD            
IL. HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE SURFACE             
RIDGE PROVIDES ENOUGH DRY AIR IN ILLINOIS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHIMON                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
945 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TOR WATCH 195 WAS CANCELED AT 930 PM EDT. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER             
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SEVERE                
STORM IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT OVERALL RISK NOT ENOUGH TO HOLD            
ONTO THE WATCH.                                                                 
LARGE AREA OF WARM TOPPED CONVECTION COVERING THE SW HALF OF THE                
FORECAST AREA. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOL THUNDER AFFECTING              
NE THIRD OF SO OF THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN            
SHIELD OF PRECIP MAY HAVE REACHED ITS NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT. MAIN                
CONCERN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL LIKELY BE HYDRO AS SEVERAL ROUND              
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTH AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN                
AFFECTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO WARM TOPPED CONVECTION              
CAN BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IN TERMS OF POPS AND                  
WX...PREVIOUS GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CAT POPS SW HALF OR SO.             
HAVE WENT FOR A SCT WORDING IN NE AREAS WITH ONGOING PRECIP.                    
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW                 
CENTER NOW ROTATING ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS. POPS MAY NEED TO BE                
EXTENDED IN THE SOUTH...BUT FOR NOW WILL LET CURRENT GRIDS                      
RIDE...ENDING PRECIP AT 2 AM.                                                   
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LINE OF STORMS WENT THROUGH SBN EARLIER...BUT THE RAIN/STORMS                 
HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING TO REACH SBN AND FWA. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS                 
ARE HEADING TOWARDS SBN WITH SOME SCATTERED T-STORMS. TIMED THE                 
RAIN AND STORMS AT FWA FOR A LITTLE BIT LATER WITH THE SLOW                     
MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. ON SATELLITE AND LIGHTENING                      
OBSERVATIONS..CAN SEE A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SOUTH                
AND EASTWARD. SO FORECASTING THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER TO BE                  
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN/STORMS AND THEN MOVE                 
SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. A LITTLE                
BIT LATER TIMING FOR FWA WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM                   
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...BUT ROUGHLY AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OVER AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ACCORDING              
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME HEIGHTS...THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FOR                
TOMORROW...SO LEFT THE SKC ALONE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 234 PM EDT)                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
QUITE CONCERNED W/ONGOING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN ABSENCE OF CLD             
CVR DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE CIRCULATION DRIFTING OUT OF IA. WARM FNT              
CONTS TO MIX RAPIDLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND STG WAA AHD              
OF SFC LOW OVR WRN IL. 12Z GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP W/PLACEMENT OF KEY            
SYNOPTIC FTRS W/ONGOING NOD GIVEN TO SHORT TERM RUC W/HAS                       
CONSISTENTLY BEEN BTR OVERALL. GIVEN BURGEONING DESTABILIZATION NOW             
EVIDENT ACRS WARM SECTOR AND STEEP EML IN PLACE ALOFT W/MODEST DEEP             
LYR SHEAR...SVR OUTBREAK W/DISCRETE TORNADO RISK LOOKING MORE LIKELY            
ACRS SWRN CWA (INDIANA COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...W/CONV CLUSTER OVR              
CNTRL IL GOING UPSCALE AND POSSIBLE ADDNL DVLPMNT EASTWARD OVR                  
CNTRL/NRN INDIANA N OF WARM FNT. WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHGS TO                    
PRIMARILY WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GOING POPS LOOK IN                 
LINE.                                                                           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY TIME FRAME                
IS CURRENTLY DRY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TIME BEING.                 
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE TWO                    
DIFFERENT TIMES THAT IT COULD PRECIPITATE. GFS AND THE GEM ARE                  
BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LATEST RUN OF              
THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH (WHICH IS                      
ATTACHED TO A LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA) THAN PAST RUNS                   
HAVE. THE DGEX IS ALSO BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH...BUT IS                 
ABOUT ONE TO TWO FORECAST PERIODS LATER WITH THE RAIN. MODELS ARE               
ALSO SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT THIS SHOT OF               
RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THE MOMENT.                  
ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER TIME THERE MIGHT HAVE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN               
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                    
FRIDAY...WHEN THAT SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES                     
THROUGH. ONE THING GOING TO MAKE ME KEEP THIS TIME FRAME ALSO DRY               
FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT THE GFS OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS MOVED                 
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES CLOSER AND IS                     
INTRODUCING QPF QUICKER NOW THAN PREVIOUSLY. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING               
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME TO BE THE               
MAIN WEATHER MAKER...AND AT 18Z FRIDAY FOR EXAMPLE...MOVES THIS                 
UPPER LOW QUITE A HUGE DISTANCE. NOT GOING TO ADD IN RAIN YET WITH              
NO CONSISTENCY YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES                  
EITHER...TEMPS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE                                                                          
SHORT TERM...66                                                                 
LONG TERM....98                                                                 
AVIATION...98                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
741 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LINE OF STORMS WENT THROUGH SBN EARLIER...BUT THE RAIN/STORMS                 
HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING TO REACH SBN AND FWA. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS                 
ARE HEADING TOWARDS SBN WITH SOME SCATTERED T-STORMS. TIMED THE                 
RAIN AND STORMS AT FWA FOR A LITTLE BIT LATER WITH THE SLOW                     
MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. ON SATELLITE AND LIGHTENING                      
OBSERVATIONS..CAN SEE A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SOUTH                
AND EASTWARD. SO FORECASTING THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER TO BE                  
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN/STORMS AND THEN MOVE                 
SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. A LITTLE                
BIT LATER TIMING FOR FWA WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM                   
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...BUT ROUGHLY AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OVER AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ACCORDING              
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME HEIGHTS...THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FOR                
TOMORROW...SO LEFT THE SKC ALONE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 234 PM EDT)                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
QUITE CONCERNED W/ONGOING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN ABSENCE OF CLD             
CVR DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE CIRCULATION DRIFTING OUT OF IA. WARM FNT              
CONTS TO MIX RAPIDLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND STG WAA AHD              
OF SFC LOW OVR WRN IL. 12Z GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP W/PLACEMENT OF KEY            
SYNOPTIC FTRS W/ONGOING NOD GIVEN TO SHORT TERM RUC W/HAS                       
CONSISTENTLY BEEN BTR OVERALL. GIVEN BURGEONING DESTABILIZATION NOW             
EVIDENT ACRS WARM SECTOR AND STEEP EML IN PLACE ALOFT W/MODEST DEEP             
LYR SHEAR...SVR OUTBREAK W/DISCRETE TORNADO RISK LOOKING MORE LIKELY            
ACRS SWRN CWA (INDIANA COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...W/CONV CLUSTER OVR              
CNTRL IL GOING UPSCALE AND POSSIBLE ADDNL DVLPMNT EASTWARD OVR                  
CNTRL/NRN INDIANA N OF WARM FNT. WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHGS TO                    
PRIMARILY WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GOING POPS LOOK IN                 
LINE.                                                                           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY TIME FRAME                
IS CURRENTLY DRY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TIME BEING.                 
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE TWO                    
DIFFERENT TIMES THAT IT COULD PRECIPITATE. GFS AND THE GEM ARE                  
BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LATEST RUN OF              
THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH (WHICH IS                      
ATTACHED TO A LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA) THAN PAST RUNS                   
HAVE. THE DGEX IS ALSO BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH...BUT IS                 
ABOUT ONE TO TWO FORECAST PERIODS LATER WITH THE RAIN. MODELS ARE               
ALSO SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT THIS SHOT OF               
RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THE MOMENT.                  
ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER TIME THERE MIGHT HAVE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN               
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                    
FRIDAY...WHEN THAT SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES                     
THROUGH. ONE THING GOING TO MAKE ME KEEP THIS TIME FRAME ALSO DRY               
FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT THE GFS OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS MOVED                 
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES CLOSER AND IS                     
INTRODUCING QPF QUICKER NOW THAN PREVIOUSLY. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING               
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME TO BE THE               
MAIN WEATHER MAKER...AND AT 18Z FRIDAY FOR EXAMPLE...MOVES THIS                 
UPPER LOW QUITE A HUGE DISTANCE. NOT GOING TO ADD IN RAIN YET WITH              
NO CONSISTENCY YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES                  
EITHER...TEMPS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...66                                                                 
LONG TERM....98                                                                 
AVIATION...98                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
234 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
QUITE CONCERNED W/ONGOING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN ABSENCE OF CLD             
CVR DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE CIRCULATION DRIFTING OUT OF IA. WARM FNT              
CONTS TO MIX RAPIDLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND STG WAA AHD              
OF SFC LOW OVR WRN IL. 12Z GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP W/PLACEMENT OF KEY            
SYNOPTIC FTRS W/ONGOING NOD GIVEN TO SHRT TERM RUC W/HAS                        
CONSISTENTLY BEEN BTR OVERALL. GIVEN BURGEONING DESTABILIZATION NOW             
EVIDENT ACRS WARM SECTOR AND STEEP EML IN PLACE ALOFT W/MODEST DEEP             
LYR SHEAR...SVR OUTBREAK W/DISCRETE TORNADO RISK LOOKING MORE LIKELY            
ACRS SWRN CWA (INDIANA COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...W/CONV CLUSTER OVR              
CNTRL IL GOING UPSCALE AND POSSIBLE ADDNL DVLPMNT EASTWARD OVR                  
CNTRL/NRN INDIANA N OF WARM FNT. WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHGS TO                    
PRIMARILY WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GOING POPS LOOK IN                 
LINE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY TIME FRAME IS             
CURRENTLY DRY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TIME BEING.                    
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE TWO                    
DIFFERENT TIMES THAT IT COULD PRECIPITATE. GFS AND THE GEM ARE                  
BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LATEST RUN OF              
THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH (WHICH IS ATTACHED             
TO A LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA) THAN PAST RUNS HAVE. THE DGEX             
IS ALSO BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH...BUT IS ABOUT ONE TO TWO               
FORECAST PERIODS LATER WITH THE RAIN. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN                
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT THIS SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE                  
WORKING AGAINST. SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THE MOMENT. ABOUT THE ONLY                
OTHER TIME THERE MIGHT HAVE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN INTRODUCED INTO              
THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THAT                 
SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH. ONE THING GOING TO            
MAKE ME KEEP THIS TIME FRAME ALSO DRY FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT THE            
GFS OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS MOVED THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT            
150 MILES CLOSER AND IS INTRODUCING QPF QUICKER NOW THAN PREVIOUSLY.            
GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT              
THIS TIME TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER...AND AT 18Z FRIDAY FOR                  
EXAMPLE...MOVES THIS UPPER LOW QUITE A HUGE DISTANCE. NOT GOING TO              
ADD IN RAIN YET WITH NO CONSISTENCY YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE             
TO TEMPERATURES EITHER...TEMPS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
ELEVATED CONV WANING THIS AFTN W/LL FOCUS SHIFTING BACK WWD INADV OF            
EJECTING STG MID LVL CIRC AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW OUT OF IA. LACK OF              
COHERENT CLD CVR DOWNSTREAM AND INSOLATION DRIVING STG DIURNAL                  
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACRS GROWING WARM SECTOR W/850MB WARM               
FNT CLEARLY DEFINED BOTH ON KIWX RADAR AND VIS SAT IMAGERY. SFC WARM            
FNT NOT FAR BEHIND AND ALREADY WELL NORTH INTO CNTRL IL/IN AND AHD              
OF 12Z MODEL EXPECTATIONS. THIS WILL BE FURTHER RECONCILED                      
W/UPCOMING AFTN PACKAGE BUT SHORT AND NARROW SUGGESTS ENHANCED SVR              
THREAT TAKING SHAPE ACRS SW HALF CWA LT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.            
AS FOR AVIATION...HAVE INTRODUCED CB MENTION AT SBN/FWA FOR THIS                
AFTN/EVE. STILL LOOKS LIKE VFR PENDING PLACEMENT OF LIKELY UPSCALE              
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION W/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE THEN. ALTHOUGH REMAINS               
TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT TO MENTION.                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                            
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1108 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE BACKED OFF ON WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT              
THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS                 
ISSUANCE. REMOVED EVENING WORDING FROM THE ZFP.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
703 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY                  
TONIGHT/MONDAY IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO             
REFLECT SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THE SW...WHILE MAINTAINING                       
CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR NE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD              
COVER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IN ALL              
AREAS...HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                
CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED.                                                    
350 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM                
SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS TEASED BY RAIN                  
CHANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATED SETUP OVER THE                
EASTERN CONUS PRESENTLY WITH A FILLING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER              
IOWA TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO           
ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN                
KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE           
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 80S JUST TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF STORMS            
WHICH FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER               
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT DIED AS IT ENTERED OUR              
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DOME OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR VISIBLE ON THE              
KOHX AND KFFC 12Z/16 SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN MIXED             
DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT KLOZ EARLIER.                 
STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES            
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET                 
INCREASES AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY            
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. EARLIER               
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HELD TEMPS DOWN SO                     
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL PRESENTLY BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO            
DECENT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SPEED OF             
THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 50-KTS COMPARED            
TO 35 TO 40-KTS ON THE GFS. LATE PANELS OF THE RUC HINT TOWARD THE              
NAM SCENARIO AND WITH SUCH SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT            
AS WELL...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS JUSTIFIED.                                  
THE LOW TRACK...SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD KEEP THE             
MOST PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL              
POPS IN THIS AREA EXPECTING OVER A HALF INCH OF TOTAL QPF. EXPECT               
POPS AND QPF TO TAPER DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY AROUND A                
TENTH OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHWEST OF I-75. THE RAIN WILL                   
GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES             
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.               
MAV NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE            
LOWER 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND               
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DEPEND           
GREATLY ON HOW FAST SKIES CLEAR BUT EXPECT A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT            
WITH LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                          
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE               
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGE ALIGNED FROM EAST TEXAS                 
NORTH TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET AND DRY                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS               
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SQUASHING THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE             
00Z/16 ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST AS GFS HAS                 
SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL           
FRONT SENT EAST BY THE PLAINS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH               
BLOCKED PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN                     
SEABOARD...IT/S DOUBTFUL FRONT WILL BE SO QUICK. ECMWF/NCEP                     
ENSEMBLES TRACK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT OUT OVER           
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BLOCKS IT/S                
PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE              
AREA BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE            
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND               
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW               
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH              
SATURDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO            
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FOR THE           
END OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY AND MILD SUNDAY FOR NOW.               
MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER                   
EXPECTED MAX VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE LOWERED SOME                 
TOWARD CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. KEPT BASICALLY WITH           
PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS.                                                      
1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT            
TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT             
A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY            
WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE                  
DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST                  
FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                             
1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART             
OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA            
OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN              
PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL                  
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT               
OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION                 
FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN             
NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS            
TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.                 
BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS               
GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER                   
MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND              
CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES             
AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL              
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                                                              
321 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE            
CWA. INTENSE PLAINS LOW IS MARCHING EAST AND STIRRING UP SOME                   
OVERRUNNING ECHOES AS MOISTURE DRAW INCREASES FROM THE GULF. WILL               
COVER ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM                  
PUSHES ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS             
EXCEPT HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY WAFFLING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.             
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS LOW DAMPENING AS IT COMES EAST...            
INITIATING AN MCS OVER IL/IN AND THEN BRINGING IT ESE ACROSS THE                
AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM               
WILL BE UNDER WEAKER FORCING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT               
WIND AND HAIL AS BEING THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER              
POTENTIAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE BOUNDARY                 
STAYS PUT...SOME TRAINING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL                  
MENTION ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS WELL.                             
MONDAY WILL START OUT WET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND             
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOKS            
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GFS AND EVEN THE TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN IS                 
SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN.                 
LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE PATTERN. WILL                 
AGAIN LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.              
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HAL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
703 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY                  
TONIGHT/MONDAY IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO             
REFLECT SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THE SW...WHILE MAINTAINING                       
CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR NE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD              
COVER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IN ALL              
AREAS...HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                
CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
350 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM                
SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS TEASED BY RAIN                  
CHANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATED SETUP OVER THE                
EASTERN CONUS PRESENTLY WITH A FILLING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER              
IOWA TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO           
ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN                
KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE           
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 80S JUST TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF STORMS            
WHICH FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER               
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT DIED AS IT ENTERED OUR              
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DOME OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR VISIBLE ON THE              
KOHX AND KFFC 12Z/16 SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN MIXED             
DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT KLOZ EARLIER.                 
STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES            
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET                 
INCREASES AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY            
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. EARLIER               
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HELD TEMPS DOWN SO                     
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL PRESENTLY BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO            
DECENT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SPEED OF             
THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 50-KTS COMPARED            
TO 35 TO 40-KTS ON THE GFS. LATE PANELS OF THE RUC HINT TOWARD THE              
NAM SCENARIO AND WITH SUCH SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT            
AS WELL...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS JUSTIFIED.                                  
THE LOW TRACK...SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD KEEP THE             
MOST PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL              
POPS IN THIS AREA EXPECTING OVER A HALF INCH OF TOTAL QPF. EXPECT               
POPS AND QPF TO TAPER DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY AROUND A                
TENTH OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHWEST OF I-75. THE RAIN WILL                   
GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES             
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.               
MAV NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE            
LOWER 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND               
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DEPEND           
GREATLY ON HOW FAST SKIES CLEAR BUT EXPECT A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT            
WITH LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                          
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE               
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGE ALIGNED FROM EAST TEXAS                 
NORTH TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET AND DRY                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS               
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SQUASHING THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE             
00Z/16 ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST AS GFS HAS                 
SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL           
FRONT SENT EAST BY THE PLAINS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH               
BLOCKED PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN                     
SEABOARD...IT/S DOUBTFUL FRONT WILL BE SO QUICK. ECMWF/NCEP                     
ENSEMBLES TRACK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT OUT OVER           
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BLOCKS IT/S                
PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE              
AREA BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE            
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND               
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW               
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH              
SATURDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO            
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FOR THE           
END OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY AND MILD SUNDAY FOR NOW.               
MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER                   
EXPECTED MAX VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE LOWERED SOME                 
TOWARD CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. KEPT BASICALLY WITH           
PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS.                                                      
1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT            
TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT             
A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY            
WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE                  
DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST                  
FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                             
1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART             
OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA            
OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN              
PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL                  
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT               
OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION                 
FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN             
NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS            
TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.                 
BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS               
GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER                   
MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND              
CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES             
AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL              
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                                                              
321 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE            
CWA. INTENSE PLAINS LOW IS MARCHING EAST AND STIRRING UP SOME                   
OVERRUNNING ECHOES AS MOISTURE DRAW INCREASES FROM THE GULF. WILL               
COVER ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM                  
PUSHES ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS             
EXCEPT HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY WAFFLING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.             
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS LOW DAMPENING AS IT COMES EAST...            
INITIATING AN MCS OVER IL/IN AND THEN BRINGING IT ESE ACROSS THE                
AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM               
WILL BE UNDER WEAKER FORCING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT               
WIND AND HAIL AS BEING THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER              
POTENTIAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE BOUNDARY                 
STAYS PUT...SOME TRAINING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL                  
MENTION ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS WELL.                             
MONDAY WILL START OUT WET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND             
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOKS            
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GFS AND EVEN THE TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN IS                 
SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN.                 
LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE PATTERN. WILL                 
AGAIN LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.              
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HAL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
350 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM                
SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS TEASED BY RAIN                  
CHANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATED SETUP OVER THE                
EASTERN CONUS PRESENTLY WITH A FILLING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER              
IOWA TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO           
ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN                
KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE           
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 80S JUST TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF STORMS            
WHICH FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER               
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT DIED AS IT ENTERED OUR              
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DOME OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR VISIBLE ON THE              
KOHX AND KFFC 12Z/16 SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN MIXED             
DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT KLOZ EARLIER.                 
STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES            
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET                 
INCREASES AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY            
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. EARLIER               
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HELD TEMPS DOWN SO                     
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL PRESENTLY BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO            
DECENT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SPEED OF             
THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 50-KTS COMPARED            
TO 35 TO 40-KTS ON THE GFS. LATE PANELS OF THE RUC HINT TOWARD THE              
NAM SCENARIO AND WITH SUCH SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT            
AS WELL...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS JUSTIFIED.                                  
THE LOW TRACK...SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD KEEP THE             
MOST PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL              
POPS IN THIS AREA EXPECTING OVER A HALF INCH OF TOTAL QPF. EXPECT               
POPS AND QPF TO TAPER DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY AROUND A                
TENTH OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHWEST OF I-75. THE RAIN WILL                   
GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES             
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.               
MAV NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE            
LOWER 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND               
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DEPEND           
GREATLY ON HOW FAST SKIES CLEAR BUT EXPECT A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT            
WITH LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                          
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE               
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGE ALIGNED FROM EAST TEXAS                 
NORTH TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET AND DRY                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS               
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SQUASHING THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE             
00Z/16 ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST AS GFS HAS                 
SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL           
FRONT SENT EAST BY THE PLAINS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH               
BLOCKED PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN                     
SEABOARD...IT/S DOUBTFUL FRONT WILL BE SO QUICK. ECMWF/NCEP                     
ENSEMBLES TRACK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT OUT OVER           
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BLOCKS IT/S                
PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE              
AREA BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE            
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER          
THE WEEKEND AND THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW WILL               
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH                   
SATURDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO            
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FOR THE           
END OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY AND MILD SUNDAY FOR NOW.               
MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER                   
EXPECTED MAX VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE LOWERED SOME                 
TOWARD CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. KEPT BASICALLY WITH           
PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT            
TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT             
A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY            
WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE                  
DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST                  
FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                             
1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART             
OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA            
OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN              
PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL                  
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT               
OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION                 
FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN             
NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS            
TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.                 
BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS               
GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER                   
MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND              
CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES             
AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL              
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                                                              
321 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE            
CWA. INTENSE PLAINS LOW IS MARCHING EAST AND STIRRING UP SOME                   
OVERRUNNING ECHOES AS MOISTURE DRAW INCREASES FROM THE GULF. WILL               
COVER ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM                  
PUSHES ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS             
EXCEPT HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY WAFFLING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.             
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS LOW DAMPENING AS IT COMES EAST...            
INITIATING AN MCS OVER IL/IN AND THEN BRINGING IT ESE ACROSS THE                
AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM               
WILL BE UNDER WEAKER FORCING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT               
WIND AND HAIL AS BEING THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER              
POTENTIAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE BOUNDARY                 
STAYS PUT...SOME TRAINING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL                  
MENTION ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS WELL.                             
MONDAY WILL START OUT WET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND             
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOKS            
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GFS AND EVEN THE TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN IS                 
SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN.                 
LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE PATTERN. WILL                 
AGAIN LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.              
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ABE                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT            
TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT             
A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY            
WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE                  
DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST                  
FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART             
OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA            
OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN              
PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL                  
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT               
OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION                 
FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN             
NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS            
TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.                 
BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS               
GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER                   
MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND              
CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES             
AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL              
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                                                              
321 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE            
CWA. INTENSE PLAINS LOW IS MARCHING EAST AND STIRRING UP SOME                   
OVERRUNNING ECHOES AS MOISTURE DRAW INCREASES FROM THE GULF. WILL               
COVER ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM                  
PUSHES ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS             
EXCEPT HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY WAFFLING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.             
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS LOW DAMPENING AS IT COMES EAST...            
INITIATING AN MCS OVER IL/IN AND THEN BRINGING IT ESE ACROSS THE                
AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM               
WILL BE UNDER WEAKER FORCING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT               
WIND AND HAIL AS BEING THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER              
POTENTIAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE BOUNDARY                 
STAYS PUT...SOME TRAINING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL                  
MENTION ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS WELL.                             
MONDAY WILL START OUT WET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND             
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOKS            
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GFS AND EVEN THE TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN IS                 
SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN.                 
LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE PATTERN. WILL                 
AGAIN LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.              
1055 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006                                                     
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS             
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP             
ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS                      
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AS THE             
RUC SHOWS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.                                        
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                 
TEMPERATURES WITH VALLEYS RUNNING 5 DEGREES COOLER ATTM OVER THE                
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OPENED UP THE LOWS TO A 5 DEGREE              
RANGE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                
324 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED            
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AT MID AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SAG SLOWLY TO THE              
SOUTH. SOME DOUBT AS TO HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH IT WILL GET BUT MODELS             
SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.             
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SOME SIGN OF MOISTURE POOLING OVER             
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SAGGING BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING               
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE ATMOSPHERE IS CAPPED.             
CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SOUTH HAS LIKELY CUT INTO INSTABILITY THERE AS           
IT HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN A TAD. AFTER HOW THINGS PANNED OUT LAST NIGHT            
(OR DIDN/T PAN OUT) AM A LITTLE APPREHENSIVE ABOUT RAISING POPS ANY             
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS UP NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO               
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST.                                       
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TOMORROW LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN RATHER           
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STRONG CAP DEVELOPS AGAIN OVER THE AREA              
WITH NO TRIGGERS AROUND TO HELP A PARCEL BUST THROUGH SO HAVE LOWERED           
AND IN SOME AREAS TAKEN OUT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF                   
SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS SOAR ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH             
MID 80S EXPECTED. RECORDS TOMORROW ARE 87F AT KJKL AND 86F AT KLOZ              
BOTH SET IN 2002.                                                               
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS IS FORCED SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY           
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND BLOCKS ITS                
ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE WITH A VEERING WIND            
PROFILE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MCS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE LOW            
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE            
AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THE FACT              
THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING AND THE TIME OF DAY ARE POSSIBLE              
LIMITING FACTORS FOR OUR AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER             
OFF BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH                     
DECREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT.                                                 
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND USED A           
BLEND OF THE FAIRLY WIDELY SPREAD GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT             
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...REGION WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE             
ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WHEN               
COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND WILL FILTER IN ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WITH            
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD                  
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRY            
AIRMASS IN PLACE...HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR                  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LITTLE WARMER            
DURING THE DAYTIME.                                                             
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND DEEPEN           
RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT                 
LAKES AND CUT-OFF LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL FORCE A FRONTAL                  
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HAVE DELAYED POPS BY 24 HOURS FROM            
YESTERDAY/S THINKING NOW AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL             
MOVEMENT. AFTER THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS TO GET               
HUNG UP ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK BY A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH BECOMES FIRMLY           
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. PICTURE BECOMES CLOUDIER BOTH           
LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT           
IN THE VICINITY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP AND             
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR NOW. STAYED                
CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE               
NORMAL TEMPS PORTRAYED SEEM REASONABLE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SBH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART             
OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA            
OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN              
PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL                  
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT               
OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION                 
FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN             
NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS            
TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.                 
BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS               
GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER                   
MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND              
CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES             
AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL              
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
321 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE            
CWA. INTENSE PLAINS LOW IS MARCHING EAST AND STIRRING UP SOME                   
OVERRUNNING ECHOES AS MOISTURE DRAW INCREASES FROM THE GULF. WILL               
COVER ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM                  
PUSHES ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS             
EXCEPT HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY WAFFLING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.             
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS LOW DAMPENING AS IT COMES EAST...            
INITIATING AN MCS OVER IL/IN AND THEN BRINGING IT ESE ACROSS THE                
AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM               
WILL BE UNDER WEAKER FORCING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT               
WIND AND HAIL AS BEING THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER              
POTENTIAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE BOUNDARY                 
STAYS PUT...SOME TRAINING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL                  
MENTION ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS WELL.                             
MONDAY WILL START OUT WET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND             
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOKS            
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GFS AND EVEN THE TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN IS                 
SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN.                 
LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE PATTERN. WILL                 
AGAIN LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.              
1055 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006                                                     
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS             
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP             
ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS                      
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AS THE             
RUC SHOWS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.                                        
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                 
TEMPERATURES WITH VALLEYS RUNNING 5 DEGREES COOLER ATTM OVER THE                
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OPENED UP THE LOWS TO A 5 DEGREE              
RANGE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                
324 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED            
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AT MID AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SAG SLOWLY TO THE              
SOUTH. SOME DOUBT AS TO HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH IT WILL GET BUT MODELS             
SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.             
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SOME SIGN OF MOISTURE POOLING OVER             
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SAGGING BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING               
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE ATMOSPHERE IS CAPPED.             
CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SOUTH HAS LIKELY CUT INTO INSTABILITY THERE AS           
IT HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN A TAD. AFTER HOW THINGS PANNED OUT LAST NIGHT            
(OR DIDN/T PAN OUT) AM A LITTLE APPREHENSIVE ABOUT RAISING POPS ANY             
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS UP NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO               
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST.                                       
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TOMORROW LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN RATHER           
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STRONG CAP DEVELOPS AGAIN OVER THE AREA              
WITH NO TRIGGERS AROUND TO HELP A PARCEL BUST THROUGH SO HAVE LOWERED           
AND IN SOME AREAS TAKEN OUT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF                   
SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS SOAR ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH             
MID 80S EXPECTED. RECORDS TOMORROW ARE 87F AT KJKL AND 86F AT KLOZ              
BOTH SET IN 2002.                                                               
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS IS FORCED SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY           
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND BLOCKS ITS                
ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE WITH A VEERING WIND            
PROFILE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MCS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE LOW            
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE            
AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THE FACT              
THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING AND THE TIME OF DAY ARE POSSIBLE              
LIMITING FACTORS FOR OUR AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER             
OFF BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH                     
DECREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT.                                                 
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND USED A           
BLEND OF THE FAIRLY WIDELY SPREAD GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT             
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...REGION WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE             
ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WHEN               
COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND WILL FILTER IN ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WITH            
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD                  
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRY            
AIRMASS IN PLACE...HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR                  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LITTLE WARMER            
DURING THE DAYTIME.                                                             
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND DEEPEN           
RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT                 
LAKES AND CUT-OFF LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL FORCE A FRONTAL                  
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HAVE DELAYED POPS BY 24 HOURS FROM            
YESTERDAY/S THINKING NOW AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL             
MOVEMENT. AFTER THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS TO GET               
HUNG UP ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK BY A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH BECOMES FIRMLY           
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. PICTURE BECOMES CLOUDIER BOTH           
LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT           
IN THE VICINITY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP AND             
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR NOW. STAYED                
CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE               
NORMAL TEMPS PORTRAYED SEEM REASONABLE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SBH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
323 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS...THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST                
PACKAGE ARE WITH TONIGHT AND MONDAYS TEMPERATURES.                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER MAINE...A             
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE                  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A CLOSED LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDDLE                  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRIGGERING NUMEROUS STORMS OVER OVER                   
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES EAST FROM               
THE LOW OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER                  
VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN WYOMING. OTHER            
WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND WEST CENTRAL                  
SASKATCHEWAN. THE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THIS LOW MOVING EAST.            
THE MISSOURI LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTH KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WHILE THE              
WYOMING LOW SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE RIDGE                
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND              
CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY AND THE WINDS LIGHT            
OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL WORK ITS WAY             
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATES                
CIRRUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG SURFACE BASED                      
INVERSION. THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SO LOOKING FOR                     
TEMPERATURES TO BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS                    
MORNING'S OVER THE U.P.                                                         
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL                
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL                 
SOUTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN                
PLACE. WARMER MOIST AIR WILL WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST                
AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS WINDS            
WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST ON MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT               
CHANGE IN AIR MASS...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.                          
THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER             
MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO START TO GENERATE              
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS OVER WISCONSIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON              
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN U.P.                           
IN THE EXTENDED...00Z ECMWF BETTER IN LINE WITH THE GFS THAN THE                
15/12Z RUN WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS ON                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS HAS HAD THE BEST            
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WHILE THE GLOBAL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE                  
LATEST RUN OVER THE GLOBAL ALSO COMING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION               
AND IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION. PLAN TO FOLLOW A             
COMPROMISE OF GFS/GLOBAL THROUGH DAY 5...AS THINK THE GFS MAY BE                
MOVING A LITTLE FAST BECAUSE THE RIDGE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD                 
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. BY DAY 6...THE GFS STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHERN             
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR 48 HOURS...WHILE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAIN A CONSTANT                
TREK EAST. WITH THE NCEP MEAN ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE FASTER MOVEMENT AT             
THIS POINT...THUS WILL FAVOR THE FASTER MOTION SUCH AS A BLEND OF               
GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.                                    
THE EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RIDGE OVER THE ONTARIO SHOULD SLOW THE               
EASTWARD PROGRESS A LITTLE BEFORE DIVERTING THE SYSTEM SOUTH INTO               
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN                
SATURDAY NIGHT REACHING NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE               
LOW WILL HAVE A SIMILAR TRACK...BUT WILL BECOME LESS DEFINED ON                 
FRIDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH THIS OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY              
AND SUNDAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1146 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND FORECASTS AS LWA CRITERIA SPREADING ACROSS            
THE ADVISORY LOCATIONS INCLUDING ASHLEY COUNTY AND MOREHOUSE PARISH.            
12-15Z RUC KEEPS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 5-6MB IN PLACE THROUGH            
23Z BEFORE RELAXING AND BECOMING MORE WSW. VAD WIND AND PROFILERS               
SHOW AT LEAST 25KT GUSTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS            
AS THE 994MB LOW CENTER IN SERN IA MOVES ACROSS SRN IL.                         
VERY IMPRESSIVE 900-800MB THERMAL CAP IN PLACE WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AT           
LEAST A TEMP/DWPT OF 93F/75F TO BREAK. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL BURN              
OFF COMPLETELY HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROGRESS AS               
FAR S AS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE                  
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS WELL N OF OUR CWFA             
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AND UPDATES ON THE WAY.           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       86  67  87  64 /  10   8   9   5                                  
MERIDIAN      88  64  88  62 /   9  10  11   4                                  
VICKSBURG     88  68  89  64 /  10   8   6   5                                  
HATTIESBURG   88  69  88  65 /   6   4   6   3                                  
NATCHEZ       85  68  89  65 /   7   5   4   3                                  
GREENVILLE    86  68  89  65 /  10   8   5   5                                  
GREENWOOD     85  67  87  63 /  10  10   6   4                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-               
     MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-                   
     MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-                   
     MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ047-MSZ048-                   
     MSZ049-MSZ053-MSZ059-MSZ060.                                               
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007-               
     LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.                   
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-               
     ARZ075.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
40                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1050 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH HOW QUICKLY TSRA WILL EXIT THE               
AREA TONIGHT...AND CHANCES OF TSRA AGAIN WITH COLD FRONT THAT WILL              
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  GFS/NAM ARE IN             
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER IA               
EASTWARD AND PHASING IT WITH THE LARGER UPPER LOW OFF THE NERN U.S.             
COAST.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH NOW ENTERING NW PAC COAST WILL MOVE            
EWD THRU THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE N CNTRL CONUS            
BY TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                               
AREAL CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER            
FAR ERN MO AND OVER IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LATEST               
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CONTINUING TO                   
INCREASE ALONG SFC COLD FRONT AT THE SAME TIME MLCAPES HAVE                     
INCREASED >1,000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH ALONG THE FRONT.  DEEP LAYER             
SHEAR IS CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  RUC SHOWS THAT THIS              
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ERN PART OF THE CWA BY MID EVENING...SO WILL GO            
DRY OVERNIGHT.  WILL THEN BE DRY FOR MONDAY INTO MOST OF TUESDAY AS             
RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  CHC OF TSRA WILL RETURN             
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE               
AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION CAUSED BY UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH              
MO/IL.  INTENSE TSRA LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP OVR ERN KS AND WRN            
MO ON TUE AFTN/EVENING AND MOVE EWD...AND FORECAST INSTABILITY                  
DEPICTED BY NAM HAS MUCAPES (MAINLY ELEVATED PARCELS) IN THE                    
400-2,000J/KG RANGE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF POTENTIAL SEVERE IN THE               
HWO.                                                                            
TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND.                
IN THE EXTENDED (THU-SUN)...HAVE NOT MADE TOO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH               
NEXT WEEKEND.  SAME IDEA AS YESTERDAY THAT CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE                 
NEWD...AND BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA            
ONCE THE MIDWEEK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DID GO WITH THE SLOWER IDEA               
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH LIKE THE ECMWF WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE                 
WITH A CLOSED LOW. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AS THE LOW MOVES                   
EWD...ALLOWING FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO BE DRY.                                      
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY                
SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MO AS OF 0330Z. SO LOOK FOR CIGS TO BEGIN                   
FALLING AS LO LEVEL WINDS EVENTUALLY GAIN A NLY COMPONENT AND ARE               
ABLE TO DRAW IN THE LOWER CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS IA. EXPECT               
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z FOR ALL LOCATIONS. A SLOWER RECOVERY              
IN CIGS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS MORNING WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT                    
IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON.                                                       
BYRD                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
910 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT               
AS DRY AIR STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST. A HOST OF BOUNDARIES ARE                   
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING A SEA BREEZE FROM                 
THE COAST AND A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST. ANALYSES               
PLACE THE FRONT IN THE RALEIGH VICINITY. DWPTS OVER NORTHEASTERN                
NC ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CENTRAL NC. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD             
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL                   
UPDATES FORECAST WITH CHANGES TO CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND WILL              
TWEAK TEMPS A LITTLE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 327 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
BACKDOOR FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN AND NORTHEAST               
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA APPEARS TO BE HUNG UP WITH NO              
REAL FORCING TO BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SFC              
LOW AND H5 TROF APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IMPRESSIVE DENSITY GRADIENT             
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING 25 DEGREES                
FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO THE               
MID AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA. DEWPOINTS ALSO DROP 15 TO                
20 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA.                  
A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY ALONG/ADJACENT TO THE SFC               
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR                 
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THE PAST FEW                    
HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA ACTIVITY TO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN                     
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL                
HEATING IN VCNTY OF SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT. CHANCES               
FOR -SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/VA                  
BORDER OVERNIGHT...MOVING SOUTH DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON                    
TOMORROW AS SFC LOW AND H5 TROF APPROACH THE AREA AND BACKDOOR                  
FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS                  
CENTRAL NC TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA                   
WHERE BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON             
AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER.                                                       
PRECIP ASSOC WITH BACKDOOR FRONT WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY                
06Z TUES...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY INTO               
THE UPPER 60S AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.                 
LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
ONLY CHANGE TO EXTENDED GRIDS WILL BE TO LOWER MAX/MIN TEMPS DAYS               
4-7 W/LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY COMING IN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN           
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONCE BACKDOOR FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE              
AREA TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD                   
AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THE REST           
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH                   
00Z...WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS DIFFICULT DUE TO NEARBY SURFACE                
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS                     
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LEANED TOWARD THE RUC FORECAST OF SURFACE               
WIND DIRECTION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 00Z WITH MSAS                
TRENDS SUPPORTING THE MORE EASTERLY RUC WIND DIRECTION IN MANY                  
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM INT TO GSB...GIVEN THE                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR                    
THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF CENTRAL              
NORTH CAROLINA...MENTIONED ONLY LIGHT RESIDUAL SHOWERS AT KRWI                  
FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EVENING. SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF                     
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF                
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD KRWI LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE                
SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.                               
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT LITTLE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER               
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH              
THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM...BOTH HAVE A TREND OF                  
BRINGING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY INCREASING                
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.  AS THE                
SURFACE FRONT CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID-MORNING                 
MONDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS TO GO MVFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KFAY...                 
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE UPPER END OF IFR AT KRWI. PRIOR TO THE MVFR                
CEILINGS...FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT                              
KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY DUE TO DEW POINT FORECAST OVERNIGHT                      
COMPARED TO TEMPERATURE.                                                        
NAM AND GFS BOTH FORECAST 925MB WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT                
FROM AROUND KFAY SOUTH AROUND 06Z.  MARGINAL LLWS BUT OPTED TO                  
INCLUDE IT AS THE INCREASE IN WIND AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED            
BUT RAPID ONSET AND DIMINISHING.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE             
AT THE END AND BEYOND THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.                                       
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JO                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
327 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
BACKDOOR FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN AND NORTHEAST               
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA APPEARS TO BE HUNG UP WITH NO              
REAL FORCING TO BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SFC              
LOW AND H5 TROF APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IMPRESSIVE DENSITY GRADIENT             
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING 25 DEGREES                
FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO THE               
MID AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA. DEWPOINTS ALSO DROP 15 TO                
20 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA.                  
A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY ALONG/ADJACENT TO THE SFC               
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR                 
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THE PAST FEW                    
HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA ACTIVITY TO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN                     
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL                
HEATING IN VCNTY OF SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT. CHANCES               
FOR -SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/VA                  
BORDER OVERNIGHT...MOVING SOUTH DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON                    
TOMORROW AS SFC LOW AND H5 TROF APPROACH THE AREA AND BACKDOOR                  
FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS                  
CENTRAL NC TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA                   
WHERE BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON             
AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER.                                                       
PRECIP ASSOC WITH BACKDOOR FRONT WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY                
06Z TUES...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY INTO               
THE UPPER 60S AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.                 
LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
ONLY CHANGE TO EXTENDED GRIDS WILL BE TO LOWER MAX/MIN TEMPS DAYS               
4-7 W/LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY COMING IN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN           
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONCE BACKDOOR FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE              
AREA TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD                   
AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THE REST           
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH                   
00Z...WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS DIFFICULT DUE TO NEARBY SURFACE                
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS                     
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LEANED TOWARD THE RUC FORECAST OF SURFACE               
WIND DIRECTION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 00Z WITH MSAS                
TRENDS SUPPORTING THE MORE EASTERLY RUC WIND DIRECTION IN MANY                  
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM INT TO GSB...GIVEN THE                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR                    
THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF CENTRAL              
NORTH CAROLINA...MENTIONED ONLY LIGHT RESIDUAL SHOWERS AT KRWI                  
FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EVENING. SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF                     
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF                
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD KRWI LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE                
SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.                               
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT LITTLE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER               
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH              
THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM...BOTH HAVE A TREND OF                  
BRINGING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY INCREASING                
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.  AS THE                
SURFACE FRONT CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID-MORNING                 
MONDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS TO GO MVFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KFAY...                 
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE UPPER END OF IFR AT KRWI. PRIOR TO THE MVFR                
CEILINGS...FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT                              
KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY DUE TO DEW POINT FORECAST OVERNIGHT                      
COMPARED TO TEMPERATURE.                                                        
NAM AND GFS BOTH FORECAST 925MB WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT                
FROM AROUND KFAY SOUTH AROUND 06Z.  MARGINAL LLWS BUT OPTED TO                  
INCLUDE IT AS THE INCREASE IN WIND AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED            
BUT RAPID ONSET AND DIMINISHING.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE             
AT THE END AND BEYOND THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.                                       
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...VINCENT                                                             
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
SURFACE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST                    
VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARY HAVING PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE.                 
ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY INSTABILITY AND DEW POINTS HAVE POOLED...              
WITH MSAS SHOWING LIFTED INDICES NEAR 0C AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID              
TO UPPER 50S. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING...DO NOT EXPECT THE WEAK                    
BOUNDARY TO MAKE ANY FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTH...BUT IT COULD SERVE                
AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.                
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TENNESSEE COULD ASSIST IN THIS...WHICH IS               
FORECAST BY THE NAM TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE                  
THIS AFTERNOON. NEITHER THE NAM NOR THE RUC HAVE VERY MUCH IN THE               
WAY OF QPF AT ALL FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND               
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CIN ON THE MODIFIED 12Z GSO SOUNDING FOR UPPER              
80S OVER UPPER 50S...THAT FORECAST MAKES SENSE. IF NOT FOR THE                  
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD                
SEEM AWFULLY REMOTE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE                      
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST...CONTINUED ISOLATED                    
CHANCES OVER ESSENTIALLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA ARE PRUDENT.                
SCATTERED CHANCES WERE INTRODUCED IN NORTHEAST ZONES...IN PART DUE              
TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...BUT ALSO BECAUSE THAT AREA SHOULD HAVE                
THE HIGHER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS...BETTER SURFACE AND 850MB                      
CONVERGENCE...AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS               
TO MOVE IN FROM VIRGINIA EAST OF THE 700MB RIDGE AXIS.                          
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL BE A              
WARM ONE ONCE AGAIN WITH MANY UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MAXES                      
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO RECORDS AT GSO AND RDU. WINDS         
WILL BE LESS THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB WINDS UNDER 10KT              
AND 850MB WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 10-15KT BY 21Z. GRIDDED AND                 
WORDED FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED. WILL LIKELY UPDATE DIGITAL               
AND WORDED INFORMATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO REFRESH.                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z GSO SOUNDING SUGGESTS MIXING                   
HEIGHTS WILL BE AT LEAST NEAR 8000FT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST ZONES              
AROUND ALBEMARLE...ROCKINGHAM...AND RAEFORD. LOWERED SURFACE DEW                
POINT FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS A TOUCH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON                   
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE FORECAST BY THE RUC...WHICH                
APPEARS BETTER THAN THE FORECAST OF THE NAM. THE FORMER LOWERS DEW              
POINTS INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHILE               
THE NAM MAINTAINS DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 50S THERE...WHICH SEEMS              
SIMPLY TOO HIGH. WITH TEMPERATURES...THIS PUSHES MINIMUM RELATIVE               
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...              
BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN GENERAL. WILL CONTINUE                   
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING FIRE DANGER...AND EVEN MENTION THE                       
NORTHEAST WHERE...DESPITE HIGHER DEW POINTS TODAY AND LIGHTER                   
WINDS...DRY WEATHER OF LATE HAS RESULTED IN FUEL MOISTURE NO                    
BETTER THAN ANY OTHER LOCATION IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND FIRE               
DANGER CLASS IS AT OR WORSE THAN THE REST OF THE REGION.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 315 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                      
TODAY...MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE             
NORTHERN TIER AND ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BATTLE                   
THE WESTERLY DRY FLOW TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COVERAGE ACROSS             
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA. UP TO THIS POINT...THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN               
THE VICTOR WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVER            
THE PAST 48 HRS. MODEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES WARMER              
THAN CURRENT SUITE OF 00Z MOS GUIDANCE. THE NAM VERIFIED BEST WITH              
THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH OF SATURDAY...THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS           
NAM MODEL THICKNESSES NEAR 1420M...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER              
80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND COASTAL PLAIN.           
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE            
AND A DROP IN THICKNESSES OF ABOUT 20M.                                         
TONIGHT...CLOSED CYCLONIC CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL                   
WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND WILL BE THE KICKER FOR BACKDOOR                    
FRONT ON MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE               
NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT STARTS TO DRIFT DOWN.                   
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH.              
LOWS 60 TO 65.                                                                  
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...TIMING OF ACTUAL BACKDOOR ANAFRONT STILL              
QUESTIONABLE. FORECAST MODELS REALLY PLUNGE THE COOLER AIR AHEAD                
OF ACTUAL PRECIP. THE FACT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS FINALLY INCREASED             
INCREASED WITH N/NE 925H WINDS OF 25KTS BY 18Z MAKES IT A LITTLE                
MORE BELIEVABLE. THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR REALLY                     
STABILIZES NORTHERN SECTIONS. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A DIFFERENTIAL              
HEATING BOUNDARY EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SHARP TEMPERATURE                 
GRADIENT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS...COOLER AIR AND PRECIP.            
MODELS INDICATING MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED                     
THUNDER.  RAISED POPS TO LIKELY (60%) WITH MODELS INDICATING DECENT             
AIRMASS/DENSITY CHANGE WITH FROPA AND PW'S ~ 1.4". POPS TAPER OFF               
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WITH NO PRECIP BEYOND 12Z.                  
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES            
PLANNED.                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT A STEADY FLUX OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID LEVEL               
CLOUDINESS AROUND 15000-18000 FEET... THICKEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
TAF SITES. SCATTERED HIGH-BASE CUMULUS WITH HEATING IS ALSO POSSIBLE            
BUT THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE SURFACE-BASED MIXED                
LAYER WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING BROKEN. TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION            
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BUT ISOLATED               
STORM CHANCES LOOK MOST LIKELY NEAREST THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW                    
BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM IT... AT RDU/RWI... HOWEVER DUE TO                    
EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THESE OUTFLOWS             
AND THE APPROACHING FRONT ALSO MAKE WIND FORECASTS MESSY... AND HAVE            
GONE WITH LIGHT MAINLY WEST WINDS TO START AT ALL TAF SITES...                  
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS... THEN PREDOMINANTLY                    
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YET STILL LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ALL             
VISIBILITIES VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VALUES SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD             
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.                                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY WITH HOT AND              
DRY CONDITIONS AS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE               
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                   
INDICATE ANOTHER WELL MIXED DEEP DRY ADIABATIC LAYER TO DEVELOP THIS            
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER DEWPOINT AIR TO MIX DOWN TO            
THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN                    
PIEDMONT WHERE DRIER ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PROMINENT. THIS               
WOULD RESULT IN RH BETWEEN 25 TO 30%. MOISTURE POOLING NEAR AND                 
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN             
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WITH RH BETWEEN 30 TO 35. WINDS WILL BE MUCH            
LIGHTER AS 850-700 RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. EXTREME DRYNESS OF               
FINE FUELS IS THE BIG STORY HERE...WORSENING WITH EACH PASSING DAY              
OF NO RAINFALL. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY THIS               
AFTERNOON WILL OFFER LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE             
SPS FOR HIGH FIRE THREAT WITH THIS PACKAGE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...DJF                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1015 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)...                                                 
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE                   
OVERRUNNING / LIMITED CAPE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVG.  NORTHERLY                     
PROGRESSION IS LIMITED BY A REINFORCING NELY FLOW DRY AIR WITH                  
DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. NAM12 SHOWS THE NELY FLOW OF DRY               
AIR DEEPENING ACRS THE AREA AFTER THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND THUS               
SHIFTS THE CONVECTION/OVRRNG RAIN SOUTH.  SINCE LOW LVLS NOW                    
SATURATED ACRS THE SE HAVE UPDATED TO JUST GO WITH CATIGORICAL                  
WORDING INITIALLY AND THEN WORD IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS LATE AS THE            
DRY AIR MOVES IN.  NO OTHER CHGS ATTM.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                          
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM SW ILLINOIS.  CURRENT TRACK OF LOW WILL MOVE IT INTO            
NRN KY TONIGHT TAKING MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SE.  THERE IS            
A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER OHIO...BUT AIRMASS IS SO            
DRY THAT DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO POP UP ACROSS              
OHIO TONIGHT.  ONLY PART OF FORECAST AREA THAT COULD POSSIBLY HEAR A            
STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT IS SOUTH OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE.            
RADAR LOOKS IMPRESSIVE OVER OHIO...IN REALITY ONLY A FEW LIGHT                  
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR TOLEDO.  LITTLE ELSE ON THE RADAR IS ACTUALLY                 
REACHING THE GROUND.                                                            
MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTH              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  AS IT DOES THE SKIES WILL CLEAR                      
OUT...EXCEPT A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.  EXPECT A            
BREEZY NE FLOW TOMORROW...BUT LITTLE ELSE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...                                               
LOW-MID LVLS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS NELY FLOW AT 850MB               
CONTINUES. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN RETURNS ALL DAY ACROSS NRN                    
OH...BUT NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND DUE TO RH VALUES AT 850MB               
LESS THAN 30 PCT. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SET UP FROM THE SFC              
LOW IN IOWA ACROSS IN/IL AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. IT IS VERY               
STABLE N OF THE FRONT WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LI/S WELL                 
ABOVE ZERO...WHILE S OF THE FRONT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY                   
UNSTABLE WITH LI/S WELL BELOW ZERO. THE GOING FCST CONTINUES TO BE              
ON TRACK. DESPITE THE FACT THAT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPWARD MOTION                 
INCREASES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA              
TONIGHT...LOWEST 5000 FT REMAINS VERY DRY IN THE NELY FLOW. EVEN                
THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT DAYTON                
WITH THE LOW TRACK OVR SRN OH...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A VERY SHARP NRN CUTOFF TO PCPN TONIGHT. WL THEREFORE CONTINUE               
WITH CHC POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A TOL TO CAK LINE                              
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN             
WILL BE SOUTH/WEST OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE WHERE 850MB FLOW TRIES            
TO TURN SWLY PERHAPS ALLOWING JUST ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SNEAK             
IN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ALSO NOT TOTALLY                    
SURPRISE ME IF THE WHOLE AREA STAYS DRY TONIGHT BUT WITH THE                    
UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NRN IL/SRN WI AND EVEN INTO NRN IN IT WOULD            
NOT BE WISE TO REMOVE POPS AS THE NRN EDGE OF AN MCS COULD CLIP THE             
FAR S. AS FOR THE CLE AREA...WL GO WITH A CHC OF EVENING SPRINKLES              
INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SIMPLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR. WL ALSO             
CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER AS WELL TONIGHT FROM FDY TO MT VERNON.             
ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NIL... MID LVL LAPSE RATES DO RISE            
TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND THE 15Z RUC DOES SUGGEST ABOUT 500 J/KG                  
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AT FDY THIS EVENING. DOUBTFUL ANY STORM WILL               
BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE SW AS THE DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM IN             
CHECK.                                                                          
THE GFS AND NAM...AS WELL AS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SKIES BECOMING SUNNY            
TMRW MRNG. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE NR LAKE ERIE WHERE NELY             
FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS.             
HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE TO BE SCT AT MOST WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO            
MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD STILL WORK. ALTHOUGH THE NELY FLOW AND COLD                 
850MB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD                
HELP OUT DESPITE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WL GO WITH THE LOWER END OF             
GUIDANCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...IT IS               
POSSIBLE FOR SOME FROST MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NW PA AND IN                    
INTERIOR SHELTEED LOCATIONS OF N-CENTRAL OH. CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY             
TUE AND PROBABLY WED...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NEXT                  
SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID-UPR                  
60S...WITH EVEN A FEW 70S SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C BY               
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...                                                 
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING IN PCPN LATE WED NIGHT...BUT WITH THE              
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER WRN PA AT               
12Z THU...AM THINKING THAT ANY PCPN WL BE DELAYED UNTIL THU AND EVEN            
THAT PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING            
INTO VERY DRY AIR. BEST PCPN CHANCES MAY BE FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY              
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE LAKES. IN GENERAL...HPC LIKES THE            
ECMWF NORTHERN SOLN WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKING                   
PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE AT LEAST THRU THU. WILL             
RAISE POPS TO 40 PCT FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS               
LIKE THE UPR LOW WILL CAMP OUT OVER THE EAST FOR THE WKND. ALTHOUGH             
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ALL WKND RAIN EVENT TO SAY THE LEAST...IT              
WOULD SEEM THAT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL            
NEED AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THRU THE WKND. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED            
FCST WILL FEATURE CHC POPS EACH DAY...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE               
PERIODS OF DRY WX. JUST TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THOSE PERIODS RIGHT               
NOW.                                                                            
WL GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN GFSX MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM 850MB              
TEMPS FROM THE EC MODEL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...TK                                                          
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
745 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                          
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM SW ILLINOIS.  CURRENT TRACK OF LOW WILL MOVE IT INTO            
NRN KY TONIGHT TAKING MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SE.  THERE IS            
A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER OHIO...BUT AIRMASS IS SO            
DRY THAT DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO POP UP ACROSS              
OHIO TONIGHT.  ONLY PART OF FORECAST AREA THAT COULD POSSIBLY HEAR A            
STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT IS SOUTH OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE.            
RADAR LOOKS IMPRESSIVE OVER OHIO...IN REALITY ONLY A FEW LIGHT                  
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR TOLEDO.  LITTLE ELSE ON THE RADAR IS ACTUALLY                 
REACHING THE GROUND.                                                            
MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTH              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  AS IT DOES THE SKIES WILL CLEAR                      
OUT...EXCEPT A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.  EXPECT A            
BREEZY NE FLOW TOMORROW...BUT LITTLE ELSE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...                                               
LOW-MID LVLS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS NELY FLOW AT 850MB               
CONTINUES. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN RETURNS ALL DAY ACROSS NRN                    
OH...BUT NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND DUE TO RH VALUES AT 850MB               
LESS THAN 30 PCT. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SET UP FROM THE SFC              
LOW IN IOWA ACROSS IN/IL AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. IT IS VERY               
STABLE N OF THE FRONT WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LI/S WELL                 
ABOVE ZERO...WHILE S OF THE FRONT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY                   
UNSTABLE WITH LI/S WELL BELOW ZERO. THE GOING FCST CONTINUES TO BE              
ON TRACK. DESPITE THE FACT THAT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPWARD MOTION                 
INCREASES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA              
TONIGHT...LOWEST 5000 FT REMAINS VERY DRY IN THE NELY FLOW. EVEN                
THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT DAYTON                
WITH THE LOW TRACK OVR SRN OH...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A VERY SHARP NRN CUTOFF TO PCPN TONIGHT. WL THEREFORE CONTINUE               
WITH CHC POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A TOL TO CAK LINE                              
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN             
WILL BE SOUTH/WEST OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE WHERE 850MB FLOW TRIES            
TO TURN SWLY PERHAPS ALLOWING JUST ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SNEAK             
IN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ALSO NOT TOTALLY                    
SURPRISE ME IF THE WHOLE AREA STAYS DRY TONIGHT BUT WITH THE                    
UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NRN IL/SRN WI AND EVEN INTO NRN IN IT WOULD            
NOT BE WISE TO REMOVE POPS AS THE NRN EDGE OF AN MCS COULD CLIP THE             
FAR S. AS FOR THE CLE AREA...WL GO WITH A CHC OF EVENING SPRINKLES              
INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SIMPLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR. WL ALSO             
CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER AS WELL TONIGHT FROM FDY TO MT VERNON.             
ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NIL... MID LVL LAPSE RATES DO RISE            
TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND THE 15Z RUC DOES SUGGEST ABOUT 500 J/KG                  
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AT FDY THIS EVENING. DOUBTFUL ANY STORM WILL               
BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE SW AS THE DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM IN             
CHECK.                                                                          
THE GFS AND NAM...AS WELL AS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SKIES BECOMING SUNNY            
TMRW MRNG. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE NR LAKE ERIE WHERE NELY             
FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS.             
HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE TO BE SCT AT MOST WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO            
MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD STILL WORK. ALTHOUGH THE NELY FLOW AND COLD                 
850MB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD                
HELP OUT DESPITE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WL GO WITH THE LOWER END OF             
GUIDANCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...IT IS               
POSSIBLE FOR SOME FROST MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NW PA AND IN                    
INTERIOR SHELTEED LOCATIONS OF N-CENTRAL OH. CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY             
TUE AND PROBABLY WED...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NEXT                  
SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID-UPR                  
60S...WITH EVEN A FEW 70S SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C BY               
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...                                                 
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING IN PCPN LATE WED NIGHT...BUT WITH THE              
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER WRN PA AT               
12Z THU...AM THINKING THAT ANY PCPN WL BE DELAYED UNTIL THU AND EVEN            
THAT PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING            
INTO VERY DRY AIR. BEST PCPN CHANCES MAY BE FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY              
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE LAKES. IN GENERAL...HPC LIKES THE            
ECMWF NORTHERN SOLN WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKING                   
PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE AT LEAST THRU THU. WILL             
RAISE POPS TO 40 PCT FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS               
LIKE THE UPR LOW WILL CAMP OUT OVER THE EAST FOR THE WKND. ALTHOUGH             
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ALL WKND RAIN EVENT TO SAY THE LEAST...IT              
WOULD SEEM THAT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL            
NEED AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THRU THE WKND. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED            
FCST WILL FEATURE CHC POPS EACH DAY...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE               
PERIODS OF DRY WX. JUST TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THOSE PERIODS RIGHT               
NOW.                                                                            
WL GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN GFSX MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM 850MB              
TEMPS FROM THE EC MODEL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
325 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...                                               
LOW-MID LVLS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS NELY FLOW AT 850MB               
CONTINUES. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN RETURNS ALL DAY ACROSS NRN                    
OH...BUT NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND DUE TO RH VALUES AT 850MB               
LESS THAN 30 PCT. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SET UP FROM THE SFC              
LOW IN IOWA ACROSS IN/IL AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. IT IS VERY               
STABLE N OF THE FRONT WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LI/S WELL                 
ABOVE ZERO...WHILE S OF THE FRONT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY                   
UNSTABLE WITH LI/S WELL BELOW ZERO. THE GOING FCST CONTINUES TO BE              
ON TRACK. DESPITE THE FACT THAT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPWARD MOTION                 
INCREASES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA              
TONIGHT...LOWEST 5000 FT REMAINS VERY DRY IN THE NELY FLOW. EVEN                
THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT DAYTON                
WITH THE LOW TRACK OVR SRN OH...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A VERY SHARP NRN CUTOFF TO PCPN TONIGHT. WL THEREFORE CONTINUE               
WITH CHC POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A TOL TO CAK LINE                              
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN             
WILL BE SOUTH/WEST OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE WHERE 850MB FLOW TRIES            
TO TURN SWLY PERHAPS ALLOWING JUST ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SNEAK             
IN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ALSO NOT TOTALLY                    
SURPRISE ME IF THE WHOLE AREA STAYS DRY TONIGHT BUT WITH THE                    
UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NRN IL/SRN WI AND EVEN INTO NRN IN IT WOULD            
NOT BE WISE TO REMOVE POPS AS THE NRN EDGE OF AN MCS COULD CLIP THE             
FAR S. AS FOR THE CLE AREA...WL GO WITH A CHC OF EVENING SPRINKLES              
INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SIMPLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR. WL ALSO             
CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER AS WELL TONIGHT FROM FDY TO MT VERNON.             
ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NIL... MID LVL LAPSE RATES DO RISE            
TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND THE 15Z RUC DOES SUGGEST ABOUT 500 J/KG                  
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AT FDY THIS EVENING. DOUBTFUL ANY STORM WILL               
BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE SW AS THE DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM IN             
CHECK.                                                                          
THE GFS AND NAM...AS WELL AS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SKIES BECOMING SUNNY            
TMRW MRNG. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE NR LAKE ERIE WHERE NELY             
FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS.             
HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE TO BE SCT AT MOST WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO            
MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD STILL WORK. ALTHOUGH THE NELY FLOW AND COLD                 
850MB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD                
HELP OUT DESPITE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WL GO WITH THE LOWER END OF             
GUIDANCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...IT IS               
POSSIBLE FOR SOME FROST MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NW PA AND IN                    
INTERIOR SHELTEED LOCATIONS OF N-CENTRAL OH. CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY             
TUE AND PROBABLY WED...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NEXT                  
SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID-UPR                  
60S...WITH EVEN A FEW 70S SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C BY               
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...                                                 
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING IN PCPN LATE WED NIGHT...BUT WITH THE              
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER WRN PA AT               
12Z THU...AM THINKING THAT ANY PCPN WL BE DELAYED UNTIL THU AND EVEN            
THAT PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING            
INTO VERY DRY AIR. BEST PCPN CHANCES MAY BE FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY              
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE LAKES. IN GENERAL...HPC LIKES THE            
ECMWF NORTHERN SOLN WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKING                   
PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE AT LEAST THRU THU. WILL             
RAISE POPS TO 40 PCT FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS               
LIKE THE UPR LOW WILL CAMP OUT OVER THE EAST FOR THE WKND. ALTHOUGH             
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ALL WKND RAIN EVENT TO SAY THE LEAST...IT              
WOULD SEEM THAT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL            
NEED AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THRU THE WKND. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED            
FCST WILL FEATURE CHC POPS EACH DAY...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE               
PERIODS OF DRY WX. JUST TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THOSE PERIODS RIGHT               
NOW.                                                                            
WL GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN GFSX MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM 850MB              
TEMPS FROM THE EC MODEL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
DRY NELY FLOW SHUD KP LWR CLDS AND MOST PRECIP SW OF TAF SITES ALTHO            
A FEW SHRA MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT FDY FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN. MOST OTHER             
SHRA WL FIND IT HARD TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENUF AS THEY PUSH NE INTO            
THE DRIER AMS NE OF THE STNRY FNT OVR IL...SRN INDY INTO KY. SHUD BE            
AREAS OF MAINLY MID LVL CLDS INTO TNGT THEN EVEN THESE CLDS WL GET              
PUSHED INTO SRN OH LATER TNGT INTO MON MORN. CUD SEE SOME LK EFCT               
CLDS LATE TNGT INTO MON MORN BUT WITH GNL HI PRES RDGG INTO AREA FM             
THE N SHUD BE ONLY SCT AT MOST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...ADAMS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
300 PM MDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGE WITH               
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. VIS SAT                   
SHOWING AN EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PARTS OF THE FA WHERE LOW                
DECK HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY KEEPING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER              
60S. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CWA ATTM WITH               
KSFD STILL IN NRLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THESE WINDS WILL                  
BECOME MORE SERLY THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WHICH                
WILL HELP PUSH THE LOW DECK FARTHER INTO THE SD PLAINS. THE                     
GFS/ETA/AND RUC ALL SUGGESTING THIS COULD BE A CLOUDY NIGHT AND AS A            
RESULT HAVE UPPED MIN TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS. LARGE UPPER TROUGH WEST             
WILL CONTINUE ITS APPROACH TONIGHT. SHRA HAVE ALREADY BEGUN                     
DEVELOPING ACROSS MT/ND AS SMALL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE SW                 
FLOW. HAVE KEPT IN CHC POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS NE WY/NW SD AS THESE            
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS THE CWA BORDER BEFORE MIDNIGHT. JUST                 
EXPANDED AREA OF CHC POPS FROM 06Z-12Z AS TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. WILL             
LET EVENING SHIFT LOOK AT TIMING OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS TO SEE IF                
POPS NEED TO BE RAISED OR REMOVED.                                              
TOMORROW BAROCLINIC TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE WRN BORDER OF THE              
CWA AS ENERGY MOVES UP IN THE UPPER FLOW. RAIN WILL BEGIN MAKING ITS            
WAY THROUGH THE CWA IN THE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN              
THE AFTERNOON FIRST ACROSS THE PLAINS JUST EAST OF THE BLACK                    
HILLS...AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.            
ETA20 SHOWING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY                  
EVENING. SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. BIGGEST                  
SEVERE WX THREAT TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE HAIL. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST             
STORMS WILL BE MORE TOWARD CENTRAL SD WHERE THE BEST                            
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED IN THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL             
THEN PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES AS THE                 
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.                                                           
BIG DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL RUNS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE             
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW. 06Z GFS PLACED THE             
TRACK OF THE H50 LOW ACROSS ND RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION              
AND MUCH LESS SNOW AMOUNTS. THE 12Z RUN HAS NOW THE TRACK ACROSS THE            
SD/NE BORDER BRINGING A LOT OF SNOW TO THE SD PLAINS AND BLACK                  
HILLS. THIS SOLUTION HAS THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE ETA...BUT THE ETA              
HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT WITH WITH MUCH LESS QPF ON THE                  
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO NOT TO MAKE ANY                
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...SO THERE IS LITTLE                  
CHANGE TO POPS/WX/SNOW QPF. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO             
STICK WITH HPC (WWD) GUIDANCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO                
WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD OF 4-8" SNOW ACROSS WESTERN SD AND               
THE HILLS.                                                                      
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING DRY              
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF WEEK INTO NEXT               
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW                   
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. MVFR CIGS              
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE              
KRAP-KPIR TWEB ROUTE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS BOUNDARY LAYER               
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SD PLAINS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/HELGESON                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1107 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE THE GOING FCST FOR A FEW CHANGES TO THE FIRST              
TWO PERIODS.                                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION THRU TONITE. CYCLONIC               
FLOW TO PERSIST ACRS THE FA TODAY. UPR TROF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA            
THRU TONITE AS WELL.                                                            
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                  
09-11Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE 40S-L50S TODAY WITH N-NW            
SFC WINDS AT 10-15G20-25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 50F TODAY. FEW             
TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET               
OBS. RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SOME MTN                
-SHRA.                                                                          
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THRU TONITE. H85 TEMPS TO STAY             
NEGATIVE ACRS THE FA THRU TONITE. 1151Z AMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING OUT OF            
KBTV SHOWED THE FREEZING LVL AT AROUND 3.0 KFT. H925 WET-BULB TEMPS             
TO GO NEGATIVE ACRS THE FA BETWEEN 06Z TONITE AND 12Z MON. LOW-LVL              
MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA THRU TONITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI            
ACRS THE FA TODAY. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FA               
TONITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.2-0.5" TODAY AND TONITE.             
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW RETURNS ACRS THE FA ATTM. THERE STILL             
MAY BE SOME POCKETS OF ISOLATED -SHSN ACRS THE FA ATTM...BUT HAVE               
LEFT ANY PCPN MENTIONED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS POSSIBLE -SHRA. WILL           
CONT TO TAPER POPS OFF ACRS THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST (HIGHEST ACRS              
MUCH OF NE/NC VT) TODAY AND TONITE. P-TYPE STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT              
BACK OVER TO -SHSN BY LATER TONITE ACRS THE HIGHEST TRRN. REST OF               
CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST COSMETIC.                                             
ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...                                     
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
24-QPE (THRU 13-14Z TODAY) ACRS THE FA LOOKED TO BE AOB 0.25". ONLY A           
FEW PORTIONS OF THE NRN FA HAVE RECEIVED WIDESPREAD 0.25" OR HIGHER             
AMTS OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS.                                                      
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 250 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006/                                            
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS              
WITH ONE CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE NE UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER ONE           
ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A BLOCKING PATTERN IS DEVELOPING WITH RIDGE            
ACRS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH OVER LOW ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS            
ATTM. THIS WL PROVIDE OUR CWA WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF NW FLOW AND              
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH.                                              
OTHERWISE...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT 5H BASED ON UA OBS AND LATEST            
WATER VAPOR TRENDS...BUT NOTICED NAM A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH CLOSED            
CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ME ATTM. BOTH NAM/GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH           
85H/5H TEMPS...MOISTURE FIELDS...AND INDIVIDUAL S/W'S ROTATING AROUND           
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE WL USE A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR              
THIS FCST PACKAGE AND LOCAL WS-ETA FOR MESOSCALE FEATURES LIKE                  
POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP TODAY/MONDAY.                                      
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL CONT ACRS THE NE CONUS THRU               
MONDAY WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORT PASSING OVER OUR FA. THIS                  
ENHANCED LIFT COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLW...STEEP 1000-700MB LAPSE           
RATES...AND PLENTY OF 1000-850MB MOISTURE WL KEEP WX PATTERN                    
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BEST LLVL FORCING AND MOISTURE            
WL BE ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR             
UPSLOPE PRECIP IS LLVL FLW <30KTS AND THE NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT.             
WL USE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM TO DEPICT BEST POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE                 
PRECIP TODAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH WL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WESTERN           
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. IN ADDITION...               
1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES...ALONG WITH PROGGED 85H              
TEMPS NEAR -4C SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES...                    
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1500FT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SFC               
HEATING WARMS THE BL TOO MUCH. OTHERWISE...BASED ON NORTHERLY SFC FLW           
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR 50F BTV TO M/U40S FOR SLK.           
FEEL VSF WL WARM INTO THE L/M 50S BASED ON DOWNSLOPING WARMING FROM             
NW FLOW OFF THE GREENS. TONIGHT...CLOUDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND             
TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. MONDAY...ANOTHER 5H VORT DROPS ACRS            
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS...WHERE THE BEST 1000-500MB RH VALUES WL BE.            
WL MENTION SCHC POPS CPV TO CHC POPS NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS AND KEEP SLV            
DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN                    
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND 50 AGAIN.                                    
TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS NORTHERN PLAINS               
RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA. LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES AND DRY                       
AIR/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS OUR FA. WL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF                 
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LVLS...BASED ON PROGGED           
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U50S TO LWR 60S.            
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM                  
CENTRAL CANADA WL DOMINATE OUR WX FOR WEDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE WL             
SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LVLS. WL            
HAVE TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF BACKDOOR FRNT LATE FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY...BASED ON SFC WINDS AND LLVL THICKNESS PATTERN...ESPECIALLY           
IF HIGH PRES DEVELOPS ACRS CENTRAL ME. WITH ABOVE NORMAL FCSTER                 
CONFIDENCE AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTING PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 6-8C             
FOR THURS/FRI WL ADJUST OUR EXTENDED GRIDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.                  
OTHERWISE...CLOUD/PRECIP GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
OVERALL...CHANGES IN AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT                
24 HOURS WILL BE RATHER MINOR. CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ON SWRN           
PERIPHERY OF SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW...AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL             
MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN BKN TO OVC CEILINGS AT TAF SITES THRU THE              
PERIOD ENDING 12Z MONDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE FROM MVFR RANGE TO VFR           
RANGE OWING TO MARGINAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/LOW-LEVEL              
MIXING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER BACK TO            
MVFR RANGE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.            
MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED -SHRA ACTIVITY LATE           
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SWWD MOVING           
REGION OF DPVA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY               
SHOULD BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE                 
LIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED APPROPRIATE TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT            
FOR -SHRA WITHOUT VSBY RESTRICTION /23-03Z AT KBTV AND KSLK...AND               
SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT KMPV/. NWLY SFC WINDS OF 10-14 KT...WITH LOCALLY            
HIGHER DAYTIME GUSTS /UP TO 20 KT/...SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO NLY BY            
LATE THIS EVENING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.                   
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATED SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
800 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                         
QUICK FCST UPDATE SENT TO ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING                
NORTH OF RIC EARLY THIS EVE. THIS PCPN IS ASSOCD WITH JET STREAK                
EJECTING WELL OUT AHEAD MAIN UPR LOW OVR IOWA/ILLINOIS BRDR. IR/WATER           
VAPOR SATL LOOPS SUGG A PERIOD OF CLEARING AFTER JET STREAK MOVES               
THROUGH LATER THIS EVE. ADDITIONAL PCPN SHUD BE MOVG IN LATER                   
TNGT/EARLY MONDAY AS UPR MIDWEST CUTOFF BECOMES ABSORBED IN LARGE               
SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPR LOW MOVING UP INTO MARITIMES. THIS               
WILL AID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG SFC BNDRY DRAPED ACRS CNTRL MID ATLC                
REGION AND ENHANCE PCPN CHCS ON MONDAY.                                         
WILL NEED TO MASSAGE GRIDS TO REFLECT ABV TRENDS BUT GIST OF FCST               
UNCHANGED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 355 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING BOUNDARY LOCATED S OF THE FA...EXTENDING FROM              
EWN TO NR RAH...AND MTV. NORTH AND EAST OF THAT BOUNDARY...WINDS                
WERE MAINLY NE...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...WITH DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 30S.                
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE                       
80S...WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S.                                                   
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW ONE AREA OF SHOWERS...ASSOC WITH WEAK                     
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST UPPER LOW...NOW CROSSING THE              
COAST...AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. NO THUNDER INDICATED WITH THIS                   
FIRST BATCH...AS AMS STABLE...AND WITH A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AS                
INCIDATED BY RUC SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH KY       
AND SRN WV...ASSOC WITH SFC WAVE...AND LOW LEVEL WAA. THIS SECOND               
SYSTEM PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. RIGHT                          
NOW...ONGOING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT BOTH           
GFS AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY                  
DEVELOPING N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING COULD SEE COME                    
EXPANSION OF AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP E OF THE MTNS.                            
AGAIN...THINKING MAINLY SHOWERS...IF ANYTHING...WITH THIS BATCH OF              
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER FAR                
S AND SW ZONES.                                                                 
MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM...NOW CENTERED OVER IA...PROGGED TO                      
ACCELERATE SEWD TONIGHT...AS IT ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN FLANK OF                
NORTHEAST UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT                 
AND MONDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND              
AGAIN CHANCES OF EMBEDDED THUNDER...DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION                  
OVER SW SECTIONS. MODEL QPF SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OF                  
RAIN WHERE THE BAND OF RAIN SETS UP...WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD                 
QUARTER TO HALF IN INCH A GOOD BET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD                
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW               
MUCH...IF ANY...MD ERN SHORE COUNTIES WILL GET...AS...WITH THIS                 
TYPE OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LIKELY RAIN WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN        
CUT OFF...AND THIS MAY BE SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS. FORCING...AND                   
ASSOC PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY EVENING.           
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN TUE AND WED...WITH DRIER...COOLER AMS ADVECTING             
IN. THU...RIDGE SHIFTS E...AND SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS               
FRONT/TROUGH LNIGERS OVER THE FA FRI...WITH COLD FROPA SAT...THEN               
MAYBE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT ON SUN. OVERALL...THU                     
THROUGH SAT PERIOD APPEAR A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED...AND WARRANT                 
LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...AS TIMING OF FEATURES...AND                     
STRENGTH OF FRONT AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT UNCERTAIN.                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR TO START FCST PRD WITH ONLY SCT LGT PCPN ARND RGN THIS EVE.                 
EPCT LOWERING CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS BY 12Z AS WDSPRD PCPN OVRSPRDS              
RGN IN LGT NE WND FLOW. CIGS CONT TO LWR TO NEAR IFR BTWN 15-18Z                
MON IN RAIN AND MIST.                                                           
MARINE...                                                                       
NO FLAGS IN SHORT TERM AS FLOW REMAINS LGT. INCRG GRDNT MON AS LOW              
PRS TRACKS S OF RGN RESULTS IN SCA FOR MOST MARINE AREAS. WNDS &                
SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX MON EVE...BUT THEN INCRS AGAIN BY 12Z TUE.                  
THUS...SCA WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE IN THE SRN CHES BAY / CURRITUCK                  
SND...BUT CONT SCA CSTL WTRS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) THRU 12Z TUE.                    
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ632 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM               
     MONDAY.                                                                    
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ633 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT               
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658 FROM 8 AM                  
     MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...CULLEN                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
355 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                   
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING BOUNDARY LOCATED S OF THE FA...EXTENDING FROM              
EWN TO NR RAH...AND MTV. NORTH AND EAST OF THAT BOUNDARY...WINDS                
WERE MAINLY NE...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...WITH DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 30S.                
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE                       
80S...WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S.                                                   
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW ONE AREA OF SHOWERS...ASSOC WITH WEAK                     
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST UPPER LOW...NOW CROSSING THE              
COAST...AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. NO THUNDER INDICATED WITH THIS                   
FIRST BATCH...AS AMS STABLE...AND WITH A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AS                
INCIDATED BY RUC SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH KY       
AND SRN WV...ASSOC WITH SFC WAVE...AND LOW LEVEL WAA. THIS SECOND               
SYSTEM PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. RIGHT                          
NOW...ONGOING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT BOTH           
GFS AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY                  
DEVELOPING N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING COULD SEE COME                    
EXPANSION OF AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP E OF THE MTNS.                            
AGAIN...THINKING MAINLY SHOWERS...IF ANYTHING...WITH THIS BATCH OF              
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER FAR                
S AND SW ZONES.                                                                 
MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM...NOW CENTERED OVER IA...PROGGED TO                      
ACCELERATE SEWD TONIGHT...AS IT ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN FLANK OF                
NORTHEAST UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT                 
AND MONDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND              
AGAIN CHANCES OF EMBEDDED THUNDER...DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION                  
OVER SW SECTIONS. MODEL QPF SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OF                  
RAIN WHERE THE BAND OF RAIN SETS UP...WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD                 
QUARTER TO HALF IN INCH A GOOD BET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD                
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW               
MUCH...IF ANY...MD ERN SHORE COUNTIES WILL GET...AS...WITH THIS                 
TYPE OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LIKELY RAIN WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN        
CUT OFF...AND THIS MAY BE SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS. FORCING...AND                   
ASSOC PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY EVENING.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN TUE AND WED...WITH DRIER...COOLER AMS ADVECTING             
IN. THU...RIDGE SHIFTS E...AND SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS               
FRONT/TROUGH LNIGERS OVER THE FA FRI...WITH COLD FROPA SAT...THEN               
MAYBE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT ON SUN. OVERALL...THU                     
THROUGH SAT PERIOD APPEAR A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED...AND WARRANT                 
LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...AS TIMING OF FEATURES...AND                     
STRENGTH OF FRONT AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT UNCERTAIN.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR TO START FCST PRD WITH ONLY SCT LGT PCPN ARND RGN THIS EVE.                 
EPCT LOWERING CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS BY 12Z AS WDSPRD PCPN OVRSPRDS              
RGN IN LGT NE WND FLOW. CIGS CONT TO LWR TO NEAR IFR BTWN 15-18Z                
MON IN RAIN AND MIST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO FLAGS IN SHORT TERM AS FLOW REMAINS LGT. INCRG GRDNT MON AS LOW              
PRS TRACKS S OF RGN RESULTS IN SCA FOR MOST MARINE AREAS. WNDS &                
SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX MON EVE...BUT THEN INCRS AGAIN BY 12Z TUE.                  
THUS...SCA WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE IN THE SRN CHES BAY / CURRITUCK                  
SND...BUT CONT SCA CSTL WTRS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) THRU 12Z TUE.                    
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ632 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM               
     MONDAY.                                                                    
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ633 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT               
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658 FROM 8 AM                  
     MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...REILLY                                                             
LONG TERM...REILLY                                                              
AVIATION/MARINE...44                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
128 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES AT BOTH SITES.            
MDT RAIN APPEARS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO KFWA CLOSER TO BETTER MSTR            
AND BOUNDARY. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO               
HAVE WENT PREDOMINATE PRECIP. HOWEVER...CIGS/VSBY DO NOT APPEAR TO              
BE IMPACTED INTO THE MVFR RANGE SO WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING ANY LOWER.            
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS MVFR/IFR CIGS SEEN UPSTREAM...BUT                
WITH LOW TRACKING MORE SE THAN EAST...THINK KSBN WILL SKIRT THE                 
LOWEST CIGS. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL AT KFWA. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF            
KFWA BUT LEFT CB MENTION IN AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER CAN/T RULE OUT            
A BRIEF STORM. CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY                   
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH SLOWER PROGRESS OF SYSTEM...THINK CLEARING              
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET IN SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLEARING AN HOUR            
OR 2. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ANOTHER UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST POPS AND ENDING OF PRECIP BASED ON                
CURRENT TRENDS. DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM             
NOW BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS SETTING UP EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM                 
BENTON HARBOR TO WARSAW TO VAN WERT. WHILE RADAR RETURNS HAVE                   
DIMINISHED IN SOME AREAS...NAM12 HOLD ONTO DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH             
AT LEAST 12Z MON. ALSO AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER              
EAST OF UPPER LOW. WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION STILL SHOWING ON WATER              
VAPOR AND GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT...WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE.                
WHILE THE PRECIP MAY BE MORE SCT IN NATURE IN FAR SW PARTS...SUSPECT            
RADAR MAY FILL IN SOMEWHAT AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER. ALSO AS BAND OF            
RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK MI INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES               
BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...MANY AREAS NOT SEEING               
RAIN SHOULD SEE IT RETURN. AS A RESULT...HAVE WENT WITH PERIODS OF              
SHOWERS AND ISOL THUNDER IN SW 2/3RDS OF CWA. IN NE 1/3RD OR                    
SO...SHOWERS/RAIN HAS ENDED WITH HILLSDALE AND COLDWATER NOW SHOWING            
AT BEST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. HAVE WENT WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO CHC POPS             
AND THEN DRY FOR THESE AREAS.                                                   
WITH RAIN/CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER AND UPSTREAM TEMPS...HAVE RAISED              
OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR 2 IN SW COUNTIES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 234 PM EDT)                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
QUITE CONCERNED W/ONGOING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN ABSENCE OF CLD             
CVR DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE CIRCULATION DRIFTING OUT OF IA. WARM FNT              
CONTS TO MIX RAPIDLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND STG WAA AHD              
OF SFC LOW OVR WRN IL. 12Z GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP W/PLACEMENT OF KEY            
SYNOPTIC FTRS W/ONGOING NOD GIVEN TO SHORT TERM RUC W/HAS                       
CONSISTENTLY BEEN BTR OVERALL. GIVEN BURGEONING DESTABILIZATION NOW             
EVIDENT ACRS WARM SECTOR AND STEEP EML IN PLACE ALOFT W/MODEST DEEP             
LYR SHEAR...SVR OUTBREAK W/DISCRETE TORNADO RISK LOOKING MORE LIKELY            
ACRS SWRN CWA (INDIANA COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...W/CONV CLUSTER OVR              
CNTRL IL GOING UPSCALE AND POSSIBLE ADDNL DVLPMNT EASTWARD OVR                  
CNTRL/NRN INDIANA N OF WARM FNT. WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHGS TO                    
PRIMARILY WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GOING POPS LOOK IN                 
LINE.                                                                           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY TIME FRAME                
IS CURRENTLY DRY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TIME BEING.                 
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE TWO                    
DIFFERENT TIMES THAT IT COULD PRECIPITATE. GFS AND THE GEM ARE                  
BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LATEST RUN OF              
THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH (WHICH IS                      
ATTACHED TO A LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA) THAN PAST RUNS                   
HAVE. THE DGEX IS ALSO BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH...BUT IS                 
ABOUT ONE TO TWO FORECAST PERIODS LATER WITH THE RAIN. MODELS ARE               
ALSO SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT THIS SHOT OF               
RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THE MOMENT.                  
ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER TIME THERE MIGHT HAVE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN               
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                    
FRIDAY...WHEN THAT SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES                     
THROUGH. ONE THING GOING TO MAKE ME KEEP THIS TIME FRAME ALSO DRY               
FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT THE GFS OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS MOVED                 
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES CLOSER AND IS                     
INTRODUCING QPF QUICKER NOW THAN PREVIOUSLY. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING               
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME TO BE THE               
MAIN WEATHER MAKER...AND AT 18Z FRIDAY FOR EXAMPLE...MOVES THIS                 
UPPER LOW QUITE A HUGE DISTANCE. NOT GOING TO ADD IN RAIN YET WITH              
NO CONSISTENCY YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES                  
EITHER...TEMPS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...FISHER                                                        
SHORT TERM...66                                                                 
LONG TERM....98                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1239 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ANOTHER UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST POPS AND ENDING OF PRECIP BASED ON                
CURRENT TRENDS. DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM             
NOW BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS SETTING UP EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM                 
BENTON HARBOR TO WARSAW TO VAN WERT. WHILE RADAR RETURNS HAVE                   
DIMINISHED IN SOME AREAS...NAM12 HOLD ONTO DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH             
AT LEAST 12Z MON. ALSO AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER              
EAST OF UPPER LOW. WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION STILL SHOWING ON WATER              
VAPOR AND GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT...WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE.                
WHILE THE PRECIP MAY BE MORE SCT IN NATURE IN FAR SW PARTS...SUSPECT            
RADAR MAY FILL IN SOMEWHAT AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER. ALSO AS BAND OF            
RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK MI INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES               
BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...MANY AREAS NOT SEEING               
RAIN SHOULD SEE IT RETURN. AS A RESULT...HAVE WENT WITH PERIODS OF              
SHOWERS AND ISOL THUNDER IN SW 2/3RDS OF CWA. IN NE 1/3RD OR                    
SO...SHOWERS/RAIN HAS ENDED WITH HILLSDALE AND COLDWATER NOW SHOWING            
AT BEST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. HAVE WENT WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO CHC POPS             
AND THEN DRY FOR THESE AREAS.                                                   
WITH RAIN/CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER AND UPSTREAM TEMPS...HAVE RAISED              
OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR 2 IN SW COUNTIES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LINE OF STORMS WENT THROUGH SBN EARLIER...BUT THE RAIN/STORMS                 
HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING TO REACH SBN AND FWA. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS                 
ARE HEADING TOWARDS SBN WITH SOME SCATTERED T-STORMS. TIMED THE                 
RAIN AND STORMS AT FWA FOR A LITTLE BIT LATER WITH THE SLOW                     
MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. ON SATELLITE AND LIGHTENING                      
OBSERVATIONS..CAN SEE A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SOUTH                
AND EASTWARD. SO FORECASTING THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER TO BE                  
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN/STORMS AND THEN MOVE                 
SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. A LITTLE                
BIT LATER TIMING FOR FWA WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM                   
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...BUT ROUGHLY AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OVER AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ACCORDING              
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME HEIGHTS...THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FOR                
TOMORROW...SO LEFT THE SKC ALONE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 234 PM EDT)                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
QUITE CONCERNED W/ONGOING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN ABSENCE OF CLD             
CVR DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE CIRCULATION DRIFTING OUT OF IA. WARM FNT              
CONTS TO MIX RAPIDLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND STG WAA AHD              
OF SFC LOW OVR WRN IL. 12Z GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP W/PLACEMENT OF KEY            
SYNOPTIC FTRS W/ONGOING NOD GIVEN TO SHORT TERM RUC W/HAS                       
CONSISTENTLY BEEN BTR OVERALL. GIVEN BURGEONING DESTABILIZATION NOW             
EVIDENT ACRS WARM SECTOR AND STEEP EML IN PLACE ALOFT W/MODEST DEEP             
LYR SHEAR...SVR OUTBREAK W/DISCRETE TORNADO RISK LOOKING MORE LIKELY            
ACRS SWRN CWA (INDIANA COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...W/CONV CLUSTER OVR              
CNTRL IL GOING UPSCALE AND POSSIBLE ADDNL DVLPMNT EASTWARD OVR                  
CNTRL/NRN INDIANA N OF WARM FNT. WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHGS TO                    
PRIMARILY WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GOING POPS LOOK IN                 
LINE.                                                                           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY TIME FRAME                
IS CURRENTLY DRY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TIME BEING.                 
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE TWO                    
DIFFERENT TIMES THAT IT COULD PRECIPITATE. GFS AND THE GEM ARE                  
BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LATEST RUN OF              
THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH (WHICH IS                      
ATTACHED TO A LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA) THAN PAST RUNS                   
HAVE. THE DGEX IS ALSO BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH...BUT IS                 
ABOUT ONE TO TWO FORECAST PERIODS LATER WITH THE RAIN. MODELS ARE               
ALSO SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT THIS SHOT OF               
RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THE MOMENT.                  
ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER TIME THERE MIGHT HAVE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN               
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                    
FRIDAY...WHEN THAT SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES                     
THROUGH. ONE THING GOING TO MAKE ME KEEP THIS TIME FRAME ALSO DRY               
FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT THE GFS OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS MOVED                 
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES CLOSER AND IS                     
INTRODUCING QPF QUICKER NOW THAN PREVIOUSLY. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING               
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME TO BE THE               
MAIN WEATHER MAKER...AND AT 18Z FRIDAY FOR EXAMPLE...MOVES THIS                 
UPPER LOW QUITE A HUGE DISTANCE. NOT GOING TO ADD IN RAIN YET WITH              
NO CONSISTENCY YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES                  
EITHER...TEMPS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...FISHER                                                                 
SHORT TERM...66                                                                 
LONG TERM....98                                                                 
AVIATION...98                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
240 AM MDT MON APR 17 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH                    
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND WINDS               
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FROM THE                 
PACIFIC THROUGH MOST OF NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...UPPER FLOW STARTS              
SLOWING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST AS A RESULT OF A STUBBORN TROUGH.               
INCOMING WESTERN TROUGH LOOKING A BIT DISORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL                 
PIECES IN AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.                                         
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG WITH SPEEDS ON THE WEST            
SIDE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. BASED ON THE RENO NEVADA 250 MB WINDS...           
THE GFS IS CATCHING THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE BOTTOM/SOUTHEAST                 
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.              
AT MID LEVELS...THROUGH 06Z MODELS HAVING THEIR DIFFICULTIES WITH               
INCOMING TROUGH. BASED ON SATELLITE...MODELS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE TOO            
FAR SOUTH WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SATELLITE              
SHOWED THAT RUC AND ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT. OTHER                 
MODELS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE NAM THE WORST. HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS              
THAT THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. WITH               
TIME THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE SYSTEM GOES.             
IN GENERAL WITH TIME...THE ECMWF/NAM ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN            
THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN. OF THOSE THREE THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH...              
THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE AND THE UKMET SLOWER AND FURTHER                  
SOUTH.                                                                          
CONSIDERING THAT THE EASTERN RIDGE/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND              
BE FAIRLY STRONG AND GOING BY EXPECTED JET STRUCTURE...WOULD BELIEVE            
THAT THE ECMWF/NAM ARE TOO FAST AND TOO FAR SOUTH. LIKE THE                     
COMBINATION OF THE FURTHER NORTH GFS AND SLOWER UKMET. AT LOW                   
LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO DIFFERENT. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL WITH            
TEMPERATURES WITH THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF THE BEST. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE           
REASONING...ANALYSIS...AND BIASES...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS             
AND UKMET FOR THE MOST PART.                                                    
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS/FOG WILL               
MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME             
DO NOT EXPECT TO MOVE TOO FAR TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR               
AS LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKE A DECISION ON CLOUD COVER/FOG IN THE            
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS            
UPSTREAM PER SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS.                                  
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUN...AND AM WONDERING HOW MUCH THE SOUTH TO                
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES.               
WILL TEND TO GRADIENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMEST SOUTHWEST TO COOLEST            
NORTHEAST CONSIDERING THE SURFACE WIND DIRECTION.                               
STRONGEST JET WINDS WORK UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND               
WILL HAVE THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR THE NORTHWEST                 
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE TOO            
DRY FOR ANYTHING TOO HAPPEN. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STAYS OVER THE NORTH           
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THEN JET SEGMENT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE                
WESTERN THIRD BY 12Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT DO NOT COINCIDE WITH MOST OF            
THE AREA GETTING DRY SLOTTED. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE              
IN YUMA COUNTY AND PULLED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE BACK INTO THAT               
AREA.                                                                           
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...JET AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE            
DAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST JET LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE             
THE UKMET BRINGS IT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN             
NOT SURE THAT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY AT               
THE SURFACE. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY SLOTTED ALOFT BUT                 
HAVE PRETTY STRONG DYNAMICS/COLD POOL ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH. ONCE               
AGAIN PULLED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE              
AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE IS...LOOKS TO BE            
DONE BY THE NIGHT.                                                              
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCUR...                  
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE WEST. GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO               
SLIGHLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD SAY BEST CHANCE RIGHT               
NOW WOULD BE IN THE WEST. THE MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT           
HAVE GOOD FEEL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOOK TO HAVE SOME SUN BY                  
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS COUNTERACTING THE COLD AIR                
ADVECTION. WILL PROBABLY STICK CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.                           
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED                 
CAREFULLY WITH A COUPLE OF UNCERTAINTIES. FIRST...GFS BLOWS UP THE              
JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES DURING THE DAY WITH A DECENT           
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. ALSO SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER COLD POOL IS NEAR              
THIS AREA AS WELL. WILL LEAVE DRY BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL HAVE             
CLOUDS AROUND THAT COULD MESS UP THE TEMPERATURES. ALSO THE MET/NAM             
HAVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AGAIN DURING THE DAY WITH THE                 
OTHER MODELS ARE LESS. SINCE BELIEVE THE NAM IS DOING THE POOREST               
ALOFT WILL DISCOUNT THIS STRONGER WIND SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.             
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT WILL PROBABLY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN              
SINCE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE THAT VERY FAR AWAY. WILL HAVE THE SAME                 
BALANCE OF DOWNSLOPE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION AGAIN WITH SOME CLOUD               
COVER. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE.                     
NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
449 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STACKED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IN CONTINUES TO CHURN TO THE              
ESE. SPAWNED MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WANED CONSIDERABLY AS IT                  
ENTERED OUR CWA. CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR            
WERE SPARED COMPLETELY FROM THE RAIN. HAVE LARGE GRADIENT OF POPS TO            
COVER THIS ACTIVITY EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A LARGE                   
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS TN                 
BORDER COUNTIES STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY                
SKIES...WILL SEE AT LEAST UPPER 70S IF NOT LOWER 80S...WHILE THE                
BLUEGRASS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS CLOUDS STICK                  
AROUND AND NORTHERLY WINDS ENGAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.            
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE                       
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK             
AS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. GFS HAS WAFFLED THE               
MOST WITH TIMING THE PRECIP...HOWEVER WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS                 
CONTINUING TO SHOW A GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY...DECIDED TO             
INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP AS A COMPROMISE. LEFT THE REST OF            
THE FORECAST INTACT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1108 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
HAVE BACKED OFF ON WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT              
THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS                 
ISSUANCE. REMOVED EVENING WORDING FROM THE ZFP.                                 
703 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY                  
TONIGHT/MONDAY IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO             
REFLECT SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THE SW...WHILE MAINTAINING                       
CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR NE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD              
COVER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IN ALL              
AREAS...HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                
CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED.                                                    
350 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM                
SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS TEASED BY RAIN                  
CHANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATED SETUP OVER THE                
EASTERN CONUS PRESENTLY WITH A FILLING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER              
IOWA TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO           
ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN                
KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE           
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 80S JUST TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF STORMS            
WHICH FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER               
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT DIED AS IT ENTERED OUR              
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DOME OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR VISIBLE ON THE              
KOHX AND KFFC 12Z/16 SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN MIXED             
DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT KLOZ EARLIER.                 
STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES            
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET                 
INCREASES AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY            
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. EARLIER               
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HELD TEMPS DOWN SO                     
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL PRESENTLY BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO            
DECENT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SPEED OF             
THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 50-KTS COMPARED            
TO 35 TO 40-KTS ON THE GFS. LATE PANELS OF THE RUC HINT TOWARD THE              
NAM SCENARIO AND WITH SUCH SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT            
AS WELL...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS JUSTIFIED.                                  
THE LOW TRACK...SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD KEEP THE             
MOST PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL              
POPS IN THIS AREA EXPECTING OVER A HALF INCH OF TOTAL QPF. EXPECT               
POPS AND QPF TO TAPER DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY AROUND A                
TENTH OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHWEST OF I-75. THE RAIN WILL                   
GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES             
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.               
MAV NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE            
LOWER 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND               
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DEPEND           
GREATLY ON HOW FAST SKIES CLEAR BUT EXPECT A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT            
WITH LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                          
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE               
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGE ALIGNED FROM EAST TEXAS                 
NORTH TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET AND DRY                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS               
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SQUASHING THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE             
00Z/16 ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST AS GFS HAS                 
SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL           
FRONT SENT EAST BY THE PLAINS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH               
BLOCKED PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN                     
SEABOARD...IT/S DOUBTFUL FRONT WILL BE SO QUICK. ECMWF/NCEP                     
ENSEMBLES TRACK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT OUT OVER           
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BLOCKS IT/S                
PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE              
AREA BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE            
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND               
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW               
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH              
SATURDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO            
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FOR THE           
END OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY AND MILD SUNDAY FOR NOW.               
MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER                   
EXPECTED MAX VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE LOWERED SOME                 
TOWARD CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. KEPT BASICALLY WITH           
PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS.                                                      
1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT            
TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT             
A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY            
WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE                  
DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST                  
FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                             
1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART             
OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA            
OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN              
PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL                  
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT               
OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION                 
FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN             
NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS            
TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.                 
BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS               
GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER                   
MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND              
CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES             
AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL              
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GEOGERIAN                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
220 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED             
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER EARLY             
THIS MORNING WITH RH FIELDS ACTUALLY INCREASING BEHIND IT. LOW                  
CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA            
MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH A PERIOD OF             
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE            
THE COOLEST WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THIS             
IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT NOT AS WARM              
AS PREVIOUS DAYS.                                                               
VERY INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS ANOTHER POTENT            
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO            
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE                  
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...DEEPER                  
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER CHANCE               
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY                 
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.                          
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN BEARS WATCHING AS MID 60S DEW POINTS                
ALREADY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RETURN FLOW BY THE LATEST RUC INDICATES                
THAT 60 DEW POINTS WILL BE AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY LATER               
TODAY. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS MOVING           
INTO THE OZARKS THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DEEP               
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS...LOWER 60S IS A GOOD BIT LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY                 
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR                
MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 2000~3000 J/KG BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF                
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE NUMBERS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER IF UPPER              
60S DEW POINTS MANAGE TO SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS.                                
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY STRONG IN TERMS OF SHEAR                   
PARAMETERS. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEE LATEST SPC DY2.               
WILL HIGHLIGHT MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THE LATEST            
SPC GUIDANCE AND 06Z MODEL DATA.                                                
ONCE THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST                     
KANSAS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS REGION RAIN            
FREE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK REMAINS                 
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT MOVES...WHERE               
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TRANSLATES EASTWARD...AND HOW            
ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.            
MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SCALE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN            
WELL SOUTH OF THE OZARKS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.                         
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL              
LIKELY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT IF WE GET A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                    
RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JLT                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 06Z TAFS...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE FORECAST              
PERIOD. LOWER CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER                
EASTERN ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KSGF AND KJLN TAF              
SITES AS ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER            
LEVEL RIDGE. LEFT 6SM VISIBILITY IN AT KSGF AS TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS               
TIGHTEN UP TO JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                                         
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
603 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...TSTMS MVS THRU NERN                  
SXNS LT LAST EVE. FRNT APPRS TO BE LCTD S OF HAT THRU S OF ISO ARND             
MIDNGT. FNT WL MEANDER ARND THE CWA THRU THE NGTTM HRS. NOT TOO MUCH            
UPR SPPRT OR OMEGA EVIDENT ON RUC OR PNAM THRU AM HRS. BY MIDDAY UPR            
WV WL DROP THRU UPR TROF INTO NC...PUSHG FRNT S. MAX ENERGY ON PNAM             
AND ETA12 IS TO OUR W ASSCTD WI SFC WV. ACTVTY WL BE N OF FRNT WI               
MAX LIFT AND UPR LVL ENERGY. NAM NOT SHOWG TOO MUCH INSTABILITY IN              
MHX CWA...GFS A LTL MR XCITD ABT THUNDER PROB. SPC HAS US IN SLGT               
RISK. FCST SNDGS SHOWG DECENT SPEED AND DIR SHEAR...WBZ ARND 10000              
FT. WND RIGHT OFF SFC NOT TOO IMPRSV BUT STRGR WND HIER UP HV THE               
POTENTIAL TO MIX DWN. WL CONT LIKELY PROBABILITY WI FROPA...BUT WL              
REWORD WX TO HV SHWRS WI SCTD TSTMS. FRNT AND WX DROP S OF AREA AFT             
SS TNGT WI NLY WND OVR CWA AND NW FLO ALFT. TEMPS TO BE TRICKY TDY              
AS THEY DEPEND ON FRONTAL POSN. PNAM PUTS FRNT THRU MOST OF THE CWA             
WI XCPT OF CRYSTAL CST BY 18Z. GFS HAS IT MR ARND HAT AND STRUNG TO             
THE W AT 18Z. MDL COMPS SHOWGS COMPARABLE INITIALIZATIONS WI ALL 3              
MDLS. WL USE LAMP AS GUIDANCE ON TEMPS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...NLY FLO AT SFC AND NW FLO ALFT            
WL CONT OVR AREA TUE AS RDGS BLD. MDLS SHWG SFC SYS DROPG INTO SRN              
STRM WED...INTO 5H RDG. GFS SHOWG SFC BNDRY INTO CWA THU...BUT AGAIN            
IN 5H RDG PATTERN AND SFC FLO NOT BRINGG MSTR INTO AREA. NXT BEST               
SHOT OF PCPN WL BE LT FRI OR EARLY SAT AS UPR SYS RIDES UP THE BACK             
SIDE OF THE UPR RDG...WI GFS SHOWG FROPA SUN MORN. WL HOLD OFF ON               
ANY PCPN MNTN IN XTND TIL LT FRI OR EARLY SAT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH TDY WL BE NO LWR THAN 40. WND WL BE FAIRLY               
LGT. SHWR ACTVTY IN N LAST EVE HV DAMPENED FUELS. SHWR ACTVTY XPCTD             
TDY WL ALSO DAMPEN FUELS. WL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE STATEMENTS.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AN               
E-W STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF EASTERN                
NORTH CAROLINA WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A S/W               
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE             
BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY OVER THE                
TERMINALS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AND               
THEN NORTH BY EVENING. ADDED MENTION OF WIND SHEAR TO TERMINALS                 
THROUGH 09Z THIS MORNING AS SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10KT WITH 30-35 KT              
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 1500 FT AS PER MHX VAD.                         
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WITH                 
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE TERMINALS AFT 19Z WITH MVFR/IFR                     
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR            
CIGS WITH -RA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY            
EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE EVENING AS               
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING               
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE SOUNDS              
WILL DROP OUT OF THE ADVISORY AROUND 06Z TUE. EARLY THIS MORNING AN             
AN E-W STATIONARY BISECTS THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR CAPE HATTERAS.                
WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE E/NE 10 TO 15 KT WHILE SOUTH OF THE             
BOUNDARY WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. A S/W              
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SFC               
WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC BY MIDDAY. THE             
SFC WAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING                      
N/NE OVER THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND             
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS 20 TO 25KT AREAWIDE BY LATE                
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD 6-8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN                 
WATERS WITH 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS. IMPROVING                   
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUE AS GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS WITH             
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.                                           
OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED WED AND THU WITH WINDS AOB 15 KT. A                      
PERSISTENT NE LONG PERIOD SWELL ON BACK SIDE OF DEEP SFC LOW EAST OF            
NOVA SCOTIA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF             
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4-5 FT OVER CENTRAL AND                  
NORTHERN WATERS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS WED AND THU            
WITH LIGHTER SEAS ON FRI.                                                       
WILL GO WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF HATTERAS FOR                  
TODAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTH OF HATTERAS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS               
WILL INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN                   
WATERS. THIS COMBINED WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL COMPONENT (2FT/9SEC)               
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG RIPS ALONG AREA BEACHES.               
ALTHOUGH AREA BEACHES SOUTH OF HATTERAS WILL SEE LOW RISK CRITERIA              
MOST OF THE DAY...A SHORT WINDOW WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
MODERATE RIPS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE 15 TO 20 KT PRIOR TO                  
WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130-135 FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM           
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156 FROM 6 PM MONDAY               
     TO 2 PM TUESDAY.                                                           
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM                   
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
  ...HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS FOR NCZ103 FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM              
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GC                                                                 
LONG TERM...GC                                                                  
AVIATION...WINGENROTH                                                           
MARINE...WINGENROTH                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
0140 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                     
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                          
LOW PRES MOVING INTO SRN IN WL SHIFT TO WV ARND 12Z.  REGIONAL RADAR            
CONTINUING TO SHOW A BAND OF SHRA OVER ROUGHLY SRN 1/2 OF AREA.                 
PRECIP HAS BEEN DIMINISHING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND KFDY AND KMFD              
NOW BOTH VFR.  EXPECT SHRA TO CONTINUE DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS             
IN FROM THE NE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS VERY DRY AFTER DAYBREAK AND SKIES              
SHOULD BE SKC BY MID MORNING.  BIG STORY LATER IN PERIOD WILL BE                
WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)...                                                 
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE                   
OVERRUNNING / LIMITED CAPE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVG.  NORTHERLY                     
PROGRESSION IS LIMITED BY A REINFORCING NELY FLOW DRY AIR WITH                  
DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. NAM12 SHOWS THE NELY FLOW OF DRY               
AIR DEEPENING ACRS THE AREA AFTER THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND THUS               
SHIFTS THE CONVECTION/OVRRNG RAIN SOUTH.  SINCE LOW LVLS NOW                    
SATURATED ACRS THE SE HAVE UPDATED TO JUST GO WITH CATIGORICAL                  
WORDING INITIALLY AND THEN WORD IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS LATE AS THE            
DRY AIR MOVES IN.  NO OTHER CHGS ATTM.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...                                               
LOW-MID LVLS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS NELY FLOW AT 850MB               
CONTINUES. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN RETURNS ALL DAY ACROSS NRN                    
OH...BUT NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND DUE TO RH VALUES AT 850MB               
LESS THAN 30 PCT. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SET UP FROM THE SFC              
LOW IN IOWA ACROSS IN/IL AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. IT IS VERY               
STABLE N OF THE FRONT WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LI/S WELL                 
ABOVE ZERO...WHILE S OF THE FRONT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY                   
UNSTABLE WITH LI/S WELL BELOW ZERO. THE GOING FCST CONTINUES TO BE              
ON TRACK. DESPITE THE FACT THAT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPWARD MOTION                 
INCREASES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA              
TONIGHT...LOWEST 5000 FT REMAINS VERY DRY IN THE NELY FLOW. EVEN                
THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT DAYTON                
WITH THE LOW TRACK OVR SRN OH...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A VERY SHARP NRN CUTOFF TO PCPN TONIGHT. WL THEREFORE CONTINUE               
WITH CHC POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A TOL TO CAK LINE                              
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN             
WILL BE SOUTH/WEST OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE WHERE 850MB FLOW TRIES            
TO TURN SWLY PERHAPS ALLOWING JUST ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SNEAK             
IN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ALSO NOT TOTALLY                    
SURPRISE ME IF THE WHOLE AREA STAYS DRY TONIGHT BUT WITH THE                    
UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NRN IL/SRN WI AND EVEN INTO NRN IN IT WOULD            
NOT BE WISE TO REMOVE POPS AS THE NRN EDGE OF AN MCS COULD CLIP THE             
FAR S. AS FOR THE CLE AREA...WL GO WITH A CHC OF EVENING SPRINKLES              
INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SIMPLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR. WL ALSO             
CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER AS WELL TONIGHT FROM FDY TO MT VERNON.             
ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NIL... MID LVL LAPSE RATES DO RISE            
TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND THE 15Z RUC DOES SUGGEST ABOUT 500 J/KG                  
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AT FDY THIS EVENING. DOUBTFUL ANY STORM WILL               
BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE SW AS THE DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM IN             
CHECK.                                                                          
THE GFS AND NAM...AS WELL AS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SKIES BECOMING SUNNY            
TMRW MRNG. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE NR LAKE ERIE WHERE NELY             
FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS.             
HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE TO BE SCT AT MOST WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO            
MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD STILL WORK. ALTHOUGH THE NELY FLOW AND COLD                 
850MB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD                
HELP OUT DESPITE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WL GO WITH THE LOWER END OF             
GUIDANCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...IT IS               
POSSIBLE FOR SOME FROST MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NW PA AND IN                    
INTERIOR SHELTEED LOCATIONS OF N-CENTRAL OH. CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY             
TUE AND PROBABLY WED...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NEXT                  
SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID-UPR                  
60S...WITH EVEN A FEW 70S SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C BY               
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...                                                 
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING IN PCPN LATE WED NIGHT...BUT WITH THE              
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER WRN PA AT               
12Z THU...AM THINKING THAT ANY PCPN WL BE DELAYED UNTIL THU AND EVEN            
THAT PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING            
INTO VERY DRY AIR. BEST PCPN CHANCES MAY BE FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY              
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE LAKES. IN GENERAL...HPC LIKES THE            
ECMWF NORTHERN SOLN WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKING                   
PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE AT LEAST THRU THU. WILL             
RAISE POPS TO 40 PCT FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS               
LIKE THE UPR LOW WILL CAMP OUT OVER THE EAST FOR THE WKND. ALTHOUGH             
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ALL WKND RAIN EVENT TO SAY THE LEAST...IT              
WOULD SEEM THAT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL            
NEED AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THRU THE WKND. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED            
FCST WILL FEATURE CHC POPS EACH DAY...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE               
PERIODS OF DRY WX. JUST TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THOSE PERIODS RIGHT               
NOW.                                                                            
WL GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN GFSX MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM 850MB              
TEMPS FROM THE EC MODEL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...TK                                                          
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...KUBINA                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
251 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE VORT MAX               
ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING.  THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING IT              
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE            
MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING             
THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SOUTH OF THE            
ADVANCING FRONT AND CAPES ABOVE 1000 OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH             
OF INTERSTATE 85.  SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR OUR               
FAR EASTERN ZONES...GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 FOR                
STORM COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA.  WITH WET BULB                
ZERO BEING IN THE 8500 TO 9500 RANGE...HAIL IS A CONCERN AS WELL AS             
DELTA THETA-E SHOWING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH EXPECTED ORGANIZED               
CONVECTION.  AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...THE                     
ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AND MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE              
MOVING OFF THE COAST AT THE DAY.  THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT OVER               
FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON TUESDAY MORNING.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED                  
TUESDAY AND INTO AT LEAST MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT.                                
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON POPS AND WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY                 
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS A GREATER CHANCE IS                     
WARRENTED AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN AREAS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION            
TO NEW ENGLAND THU THROUGH SUN. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGER              
SCALE VORTEX WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LEAD               
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU SHOULD WASH OUT WITH               
LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE DECAYING BOUNDARY. THE MOST PROMINENT                
SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION DAYTIME SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH            
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE                    
REFLECTION. A STRONG 850 MB JETLET COULD TRAVERSE THE REGION ON                 
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD               
RESULT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY               
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER LAYER DRYING               
ALREADY IN PLACE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.               
WINDS ARE ABOUT 30 KTS FROM 240 DEGREES 1000 FEET OFF THE GROUND                
AND 40 KTS FROM 260 DEGREES AT 2000 FEET. HOWEVER...MOST SITES                  
REMAIN MIXED AT THE SURFACE...SO THE ABSOLUTE WIND CHANGE IS NOT                
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GROUP.                                 
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OF OF THE WEST TODAY...THEN QUICKLY TURN OUT          
OF THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS            
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SO WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF CROSS WINDS             
BY MID AFTERNOON AT MANY TAF SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY DEEP                
MIXING LATER IN THE DAY...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A            
FEW CROSSWIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE UPSTATE               
TAF SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOKS AS IF KCLT              
WL SEE A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 22         
UTC WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.                                                
AS FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTION...THE NAM DEVELOPS A NARROW RIBBON              
OF HIGH INSTABILITY RIGHT ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA DURING THE            
AFTERNOON. HAVE A CB GROUP IN THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THE             
POTENTIAL EXITS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF KCLT             
FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BEGINNING AROUND 17 UTC. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH               
AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION OVER THE UPSTATE...BUT KAVL MAY            
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING.                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DEO                                                                
LONG TERM...BPM                                                                 
AVIATION...BPM                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
315 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY/TONIGHT/TUESDAY. HUDSON HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL           
DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER TODAY WITH CLEAR DRY CONDITIONS.  MAIN             
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOWER HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOONS        
AND AMOUNT OF WIND MIXING DOWN FOR GUSTS.                                       
GUID MODEL DEWPONTS INITIALIZING A BIT HIGH...AND TEMPS A BIT LOW DUE TO        
WINDS STAYING UP EARLY THIS AM.  DO NOTE RUC H8 MODEL WINDS TO 25 KTS AT        
18Z TODAY SO WILL MENTION SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN SUBSIDENT AIR MASS.          
WILL NOT NEED A COOLER BY THE LAKE PHRASE SINCE EASTERLY FLOW WILL              
PENETRATE WELL INTO THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES.  SUNDAYS HIGHTS RANGED           
FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S           
OVER C AND NC WI.  EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW.             
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NITE THRU SUNDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE           
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                      
THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON NO PRECIP ENTERING THE CWA ON TUESDAY NITE AS A         
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN              
MODELS STILL SEEM TOO FAST BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE THE NAM SEEMS          
MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH.                                 
ONCE THE LOW MOVES IN THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A COLD UPPER LOW AS STEEP        
LAPSE RATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON         
SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE GFS RUN          
INDICATES THE LOW WILL HANG OUT OVER THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD            
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THRU SATURDAY NITE. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND             
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM         
BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS AT THIS          
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDH/KURIMSKI                                                                    
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1208 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...                     
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. MAINLY            
PULSE ACTIVITY WITH SMALL HAIL...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STORMS EXCEEDED             
SEVERE THRESHOLDS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS.                        
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH AFTERNOON...SO TAPERED POPS OFF INTO             
EARLY EVENING.                                                                  
DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.                         
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA HAS KEPT                
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...SO LOWERED AFTERNOON             
HIGHS SOME IN THIS REGION.                                                      
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
449 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                      
STACKED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IN CONTINUES TO CHURN TO THE              
ESE. SPAWNED MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WANED CONSIDERABLY AS IT                  
ENTERED OUR CWA. CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR            
WERE SPARED COMPLETELY FROM THE RAIN. HAVE LARGE GRADIENT OF POPS TO            
COVER THIS ACTIVITY EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A LARGE                   
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS TN                 
BORDER COUNTIES STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY                
SKIES...WILL SEE AT LEAST UPPER 70S IF NOT LOWER 80S...WHILE THE                
BLUEGRASS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS CLOUDS STICK                  
AROUND AND NORTHERLY WINDS ENGAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.            
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE                       
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK             
AS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. GFS HAS WAFFLED THE               
MOST WITH TIMING THE PRECIP...HOWEVER WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS                 
CONTINUING TO SHOW A GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY...DECIDED TO             
INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP AS A COMPROMISE. LEFT THE REST OF            
THE FORECAST INTACT.                                                            
1108 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
HAVE BACKED OFF ON WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT              
THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS                 
ISSUANCE. REMOVED EVENING WORDING FROM THE ZFP.                                 
703 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY                  
TONIGHT/MONDAY IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO             
REFLECT SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THE SW...WHILE MAINTAINING                       
CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR NE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD              
COVER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IN ALL              
AREAS...HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                
CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED.                                                    
350 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM                
SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS TEASED BY RAIN                  
CHANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATED SETUP OVER THE                
EASTERN CONUS PRESENTLY WITH A FILLING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER              
IOWA TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO           
ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN                
KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE           
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 80S JUST TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF STORMS            
WHICH FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER               
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT DIED AS IT ENTERED OUR              
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DOME OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR VISIBLE ON THE              
KOHX AND KFFC 12Z/16 SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN MIXED             
DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT KLOZ EARLIER.                 
STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES            
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET                 
INCREASES AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY            
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. EARLIER               
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HELD TEMPS DOWN SO                     
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL PRESENTLY BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO            
DECENT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SPEED OF             
THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 50-KTS COMPARED            
TO 35 TO 40-KTS ON THE GFS. LATE PANELS OF THE RUC HINT TOWARD THE              
NAM SCENARIO AND WITH SUCH SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT            
AS WELL...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS JUSTIFIED.                                  
THE LOW TRACK...SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD KEEP THE             
MOST PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL              
POPS IN THIS AREA EXPECTING OVER A HALF INCH OF TOTAL QPF. EXPECT               
POPS AND QPF TO TAPER DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY AROUND A                
TENTH OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHWEST OF I-75. THE RAIN WILL                   
GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES             
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.               
MAV NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE            
LOWER 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND               
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DEPEND           
GREATLY ON HOW FAST SKIES CLEAR BUT EXPECT A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT            
WITH LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                          
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE               
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGE ALIGNED FROM EAST TEXAS                 
NORTH TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET AND DRY                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS               
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SQUASHING THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE             
00Z/16 ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST AS GFS HAS                 
SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL           
FRONT SENT EAST BY THE PLAINS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH               
BLOCKED PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN                     
SEABOARD...IT/S DOUBTFUL FRONT WILL BE SO QUICK. ECMWF/NCEP                     
ENSEMBLES TRACK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT OUT OVER           
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BLOCKS IT/S                
PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE              
AREA BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE            
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND               
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW               
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH              
SATURDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO            
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FOR THE           
END OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY AND MILD SUNDAY FOR NOW.               
MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER                   
EXPECTED MAX VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE LOWERED SOME                 
TOWARD CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. KEPT BASICALLY WITH           
PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS.                                                      
1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006                                                     
CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT            
TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT             
A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY            
WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE                  
DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST                  
FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCLANE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1118 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                     
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
WELL...THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH                  
HALF OF THE CWA HAS MOVED INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD                   
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH THE CWA...WHERE                
LOW STRATO-CU CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN BEHIND IT. ASSOCIATED UPPER                 
LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN KY ATTM...WHERE LOBE OF SHORTWAVE                
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE JACKSON AREA TO TERRE HAUTE INDIANA. A SFC              
TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RESIDE ALONG THE SAME AXIS. PER                  
RECENT LAPS SOUNDING...APPEARS AS THOUGH DEEP SHEAR IS PRETTY                   
WEAK...WITH ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES ARE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM WITH              
THIS YET STILL WELL ABOVE ZERO. THIS AXIS OF ENERGY SEEMS TO BE                 
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE                
OF HOURS...WHICH A FEW HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.              
SO KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR NERN TWO-THIRDS OF                  
CWA.                                                                            
NAM/RUC MODEL RH FIELDS SEEM TO DISSIPATE THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS              
BY THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN ALL DAY.                
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BEHIND THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY...AS TEMPS              
ARE AROUND 50 IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND IN THE LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN                 
INDIANA. SO FELT THAT HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED FOR THE MOST              
PART ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE STEADY OR FALLING                   
TEMPS IN THOSE ZONES.                                                           
HAVE ALREADY MADE THESE ADJUSTMENTS...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT.            
AL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DEALING WITH THE DIMINISHING PCPN THREAT               
THIS MORNING. THEN THE OVERALL CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...                
AND THEIR RESULTING IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE MINS TONIGHT.             
WITH THE WEAKENING TROF EXITING THE AREA DURING THIS MORNING...AND              
WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST NOW DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WILL            
KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF TRW-/RW- IN FA FOR THIS MORNING. THEN PARTLY TO           
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT CLEARING FROM THE NORTH                  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.                                         
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP TRENDS FROM THE CURRENT FCST.                    
21                                                                              
LONG TERM (TUESDAY-MONDAY)...                                                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...                                                        
ONGOING FORECAST ONLY REQUIRED A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...SMALL MODEL                 
DIFFERENCES FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO TO SLIGHTLY             
PUSH PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY ONLY. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE              
WILL ROLL EAST FROM THE NEAR THE OZARKS TUESDAY EVENING AND ON                  
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY NEAR THE TN AND KY BORDER WEDNESDAY...SYSTEM               
WEAKENS AS ENERGY STAYS MORE TOWARDS THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE UPPER              
MS VALLEY. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS AS SCTD SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY             
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHCS LOOKS TO END DURING THE NIGHTTIME                 
HOURS WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY.                      
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                                      
HAVE FOLLOWED A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST            
AS WELL...THOUGH SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY DEALING WITH THE             
PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS SHOWING ANOMALOUS LOOKING             
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
STATES. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD AS                     
WELL.                                                                           
THINKING THE CUT OFF LOW IS OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF              
YEAR...THOUGH A MUCH WEAKER LOW IS PLAUSIBLE. SO HAVE TAKEN THE LOW             
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY...TOWARDS THE GREAT             
LAKES WITH RIDGING NEAR THE EAST COAST SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION                  
SOME...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE LOW WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST              
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE ATLC                    
SEABOARD. SFC RIDGING WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE               
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE              
SLIDES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE MENTIONED PRECIP CHANCES WITH                 
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY              
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. DRYING AND CLEARING             
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AMPLE SUNSHINE TO START NEXT WEEK.                 
SCHOTT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1009 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRATUS DECK MEANDERED INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING             
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ISNT REALLY SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF IT               
BREAKING UP IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE. PIREPS FROM AIZ/STL AS WELL                
KSTL 88D VWP INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK IS ROUGHLY 2000FT THICK             
SO IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE THE BETTER PART OF THE MORNING AND EARLY               
AFTERNOON TO MIX THIS CLOUDINESS OUT. ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT STILL              
GOING TO PLAN ON A QUICK JUMP IN TEMPERATURES BUT EVEN THAT MAY NOT             
BE ENOUGH TO GET TEMPS UP TO GOING HIGHS IN GRIDS...SO HAVE NUDGED              
TEMPS DOWN A HAIR FOR NOW. FURTHER TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS ARE                  
PROBABLY IMPENDING.                                                             
KSGF VWP INDICATES THAT THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO            
MIX OUT WITH WINDS 700FT AGL SWINGING BACK AROUND TO SE. WITH THE               
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE OUR FULL MAX TEMP                
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SW OF THE STRATUS DECK. IF THE KSGF             
VWP IS ANY INDICATION OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION HAVING MIXED OUT THEN            
OUR HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL FROM OUR MORNING SOUNDING WOULD BE MID 80S              
HERE...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO LET GOING TEMPS RIDE FOR NOW                
OVER MAJORITY OF CWA.                                                           
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...//PREV DISCUSSION FROM 640 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006//               
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED             
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER EARLY             
THIS MORNING WITH RH FIELDS ACTUALLY INCREASING BEHIND IT. LOW                  
CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA            
MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH A PERIOD OF             
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE            
THE COOLEST WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THIS             
IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT NOT AS WARM              
AS PREVIOUS DAYS.                                                               
VERY INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS ANOTHER POTENT            
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO            
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE                  
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...DEEPER                  
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER CHANCE               
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY                 
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.                          
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN BEARS WATCHING AS MID 60S DEW POINTS                
ALREADY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RETURN FLOW BY THE LATEST RUC INDICATES                
THAT 60 DEW POINTS WILL BE AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY LATER               
TODAY. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS                  
MOVING INTO THE OZARKS THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...HOWEVER DUE TO THE             
DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN             
PLAINS...LOWER 60S IS A GOOD BIT LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY                 
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR                
MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 2000~3000 J/KG BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF                
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE NUMBERS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER IF UPPER              
60S DEW POINTS MANAGE TO SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS.                                
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY STRONG IN TERMS OF SHEAR                   
PARAMETERS. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEE LATEST SPC DY2.               
WILL HIGHLIGHT MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THE LATEST            
SPC GUIDANCE AND 06Z MODEL DATA.                                                
ONCE THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST                     
KANSAS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS REGION RAIN            
FREE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK REMAINS                 
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT MOVES...WHERE               
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TRANSLATES EASTWARD...AND HOW            
ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.            
MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SCALE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN            
WELL SOUTH OF THE OZARKS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.                         
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL              
LIKELY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT IF WE GET A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                    
RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JLT                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOWER CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW              
OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND CURRENTLY EXTEND               
FROM OLATHE TO HERMITAGE TO SALEM. RUC 925 RH FIELD HAS A PRETTY                
DECENT LOCK ON WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD DECK. FOLLOWING FORECAST TRENDS            
ON 925 RH AND APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST...WILL OPT TO KEEP             
MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AT KSGF SO              
CLOUD TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.                                 
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE               
TAF PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z AS LEE             
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.                                           
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1217 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM               
WATCH 196...IN EFFECT UNTIL 21Z. LINE OF CONVECTION ORGANIZING IN               
EAST TENNESSEE MARCHING STEADILY TOWARD OUR WESTERN ZONES.                      
THERE WAS INITIAL CONFUSION OVER THE COUNTIES ORIGINALLY SLATED TO              
BE IN THE WATCH. WE RECENTLY ISSUED A CORRECTED WATCH COORDINATION              
MESSAGE...UNDER THE PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST HEADER CAEWCNGSP...WITH              
THE PROPER COUNTIES AND REMOVING COUNTIES INADVERTENTLY INCLUDED                
THE FIRST TIME.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1100 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006/                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES A WAVY-TYPE                    
FRONTAL FEATURE STRETCHING FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH               
CAROLINA...WEST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...THEN BACK TO THE               
NORTHWEST TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KENTUCKY COAL FIELDS.                
THE PART OF THIS COMPLEX FRONTAL ALIGNMENT OVER NORTHEAST PART OF               
THE TAR HEEL STATE IS SINKING TO THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW OVER                
KENTUCKY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE                        
ALOFT...IS PROJECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.       
ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS INDICATES DEWPOINTS ALREADY BEGINNNING TO                
MIX OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS MORE TO DO              
WITH A DRY POCKET OR INITIAL DIURNAL MIXING THAN WITH DRYING                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF.                                               
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION ALREADY ORGANIZING AHEAD OF              
THE KENTUCKY SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. THIS CLUSTER                
HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEPER SURFACE DEWPOINT              
AXIS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THIS ONGOING                
CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ENCOUNTERS THE MUCH                 
DRIER AIR INVADING OUR NORTHERN AREAS FROM THE NORTHEAST.                       
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE ALREADY UNSTABLE. PROJECTED                
SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE TO MID LEVEL THETA-E 25 TO 30. MOISTURE HAS              
CREPT WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION                   
CENTER MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR TODAY A TAD TO THE WEST                
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE KEY                 
WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE VORT AND ASSOCIATED                  
STEEPER LAPSE RATES; THERE IS A POINT...SOMEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS              
OR THE UPSTATE...WHERE THE ATMOPSHERE WILL BE TOO CAPPED TO                     
SUPPORT CONVECTION TODAY. THAT LOCATION APPEARS TO BE...THIS                    
MORNING ANYWAY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.                  
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THE STRONGER WINDS PROJECTED ON                      
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES STILL PRETTY MUCH CLEAR...IT WOULD                
NOT BE MUCH OF A STRETCH TO TAP THOSE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT.                       
CERTAINLY...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS WINDY...AT HIGHER TERRAIN                       
LOCATIONS AND ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND                
THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. WE DECIDED TO HOIST A LAKE WIND                    
ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS TIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.                               
FINALLY...WE RAISED MAXES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTHERN                       
AREAS...AND KEPT COOLER MAXES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TODAY. WE                
TOOK CHANCE OF RAIN DOWN TO 40% FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HIGHEST               
IN AN ARC FRM NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...DOWN               
TO 30% OR SO FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE EASTERN UPSTATE. WE              
TOOK CHANCE OF RAIN TO ISOLATED FROM SCATTERED FOR THE GREENVILLE               
SPARTANBURG METRO AREA.                                                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
MIXING HEIGHTS COULD END UP A TAD HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTED                 
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS...INCHING TOWARD 9000 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 251 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE VORT MAX               
ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING.  THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING IT              
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE            
MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING             
THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SOUTH OF THE            
ADVANCING FRONT AND CAPES ABOVE 1000 OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH             
OF INTERSTATE 85.  SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR OUR               
FAR EASTERN ZONES...GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 FOR                
STORM COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA.  WITH WET BULB                
ZERO BEING IN THE 8500 TO 9500 RANGE...HAIL IS A CONCERN AS WELL AS             
DELTA THETA-E SHOWING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH EXPECTED ORGANIZED               
CONVECTION.  AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...THE                     
ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AND MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE              
MOVING OFF THE COAST AT THE DAY.  THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT OVER               
FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON TUESDAY MORNING.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED                  
TUESDAY AND INTO AT LEAST MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT.                                
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON POPS AND WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY                 
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS A GREATER CHANCE IS                     
WARRENTED AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN AREAS.                                       
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION            
TO NEW ENGLAND THU THROUGH SUN. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGER              
SCALE VORTEX WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LEAD               
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU SHOULD WASH OUT WITH               
LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE DECAYING BOUNDARY. THE MOST PROMINENT                
SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION DAYTIME SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH            
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE                    
REFLECTION. A STRONG 850 MB JETLET COULD TRAVERSE THE REGION ON                 
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD               
RESULT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY               
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER LAYER DRYING               
ALREADY IN PLACE.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.               
WINDS ARE ABOUT 30 KTS FROM 240 DEGREES 1000 FEET OFF THE GROUND                
AND 40 KTS FROM 260 DEGREES AT 2000 FEET. HOWEVER...MOST SITES                  
REMAIN MIXED AT THE SURFACE...SO THE ABSOLUTE WIND CHANGE IS NOT                
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GROUP.                                 
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OF OF THE WEST TODAY...THEN QUICKLY TURN OUT          
OF THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS            
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SO WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF CROSS WINDS             
BY MID AFTERNOON AT MANY TAF SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY DEEP                
MIXING LATER IN THE DAY...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A            
FEW CROSSWIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE UPSTATE               
TAF SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOKS AS IF KCLT              
WL SEE A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 22         
UTC WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.                                                
AS FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTION...THE NAM DEVELOPS A NARROW RIBBON              
OF HIGH INSTABILITY RIGHT ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA DURING THE            
AFTERNOON. HAVE A CB GROUP IN THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THE             
POTENTIAL EXITS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF KCLT             
FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BEGINNING AROUND 17 UTC. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH               
AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION OVER THE UPSTATE...BUT KAVL MAY            
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING.                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 7 PM               
     MONDAY.                                                                    
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082 UNTIL 7              
     PM MONDAY.                                                                 
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1100 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES A WAVY-TYPE                    
FRONTAL FEATURE STRETCHING FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH               
CAROLINA...WEST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...THEN BACK TO THE               
NORTHWEST TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KENTUCKY COAL FIELDS.                
THE PART OF THIS COMPLEX FRONTAL ALIGNMENT OVER NORTHEAST PART OF               
THE TAR HEEL STATE IS SINKING TO THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW OVER                
KENTUCKY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE                        
ALOFT...IS PROJECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.       
ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS INDICATES DEWPOINTS ALREADY BEGINNNING TO                
MIX OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS MORE TO DO              
WITH A DRY POCKET OR INITIAL DIURNAL MIXING THAN WITH DRYING                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF.                                               
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION ALREADY ORGANIZING AHEAD OF              
THE KENTUCKY SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. THIS CLUSTER                
HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEPER SURFACE DEWPOINT              
AXIS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THIS ONGOING                
CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ENCOUNTERS THE MUCH                 
DRIER AIR INVADING OUR NORTHERN AREAS FROM THE NORTHEAST.                       
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE ALREADY UNSTABLE. PROJECTED                
SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE TO MID LEVEL THETA-E 25 TO 30. MOISTURE HAS              
CREPT WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION                   
CENTER MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR TODAY A TAD TO THE WEST                
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE KEY                 
WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE VORT AND ASSOCIATED                  
STEEPER LAPSE RATES; THERE IS A POINT...SOMEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS              
OR THE UPSTATE...WHERE THE ATMOPSHERE WILL BE TOO CAPPED TO                     
SUPPORT CONVECTION TODAY. THAT LOCATION APPEARS TO BE...THIS                    
MORNING ANYWAY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.                  
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THE STRONGER WINDS PROJECTED ON                      
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES STILL PRETTY MUCH CLEAR...IT WOULD                
NOT BE MUCH OF A STRETCH TO TAP THOSE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT.                       
CERTAINLY...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS WINDY...AT HIGHER TERRAIN                       
LOCATIONS AND ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND                
THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. WE DECIDED TO HOIST A LAKE WIND                    
ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS TIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.                               
FINALLY...WE RAISED MAXES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTHERN                       
AREAS...AND KEPT COOLER MAXES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TODAY. WE                
TOOK CHANCE OF RAIN DOWN TO 40% FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HIGHEST               
IN AN ARC FRM NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...DOWN               
TO 30% OR SO FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE EASTERN UPSTATE. WE              
TOOK CHANCE OF RAIN TO ISOLATED FROM SCATTERED FOR THE GREENVILLE               
SPARTANBURG METRO AREA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MIXING HEIGHTS COULD END UP A TAD HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTED                 
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS...INCHING TOWARD 9000 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 251 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE VORT MAX               
ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING.  THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING IT              
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE            
MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING             
THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SOUTH OF THE            
ADVANCING FRONT AND CAPES ABOVE 1000 OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH             
OF INTERSTATE 85.  SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR OUR               
FAR EASTERN ZONES...GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 FOR                
STORM COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA.  WITH WET BULB                
ZERO BEING IN THE 8500 TO 9500 RANGE...HAIL IS A CONCERN AS WELL AS             
DELTA THETA-E SHOWING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH EXPECTED ORGANIZED               
CONVECTION.  AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...THE                     
ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AND MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE              
MOVING OFF THE COAST AT THE DAY.  THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT OVER               
FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON TUESDAY MORNING.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED                  
TUESDAY AND INTO AT LEAST MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT.                                
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON POPS AND WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY                 
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS A GREATER CHANCE IS                     
WARRENTED AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN AREAS.                                       
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION            
TO NEW ENGLAND THU THROUGH SUN. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGER              
SCALE VORTEX WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LEAD               
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU SHOULD WASH OUT WITH               
LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE DECAYING BOUNDARY. THE MOST PROMINENT                
SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION DAYTIME SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH            
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE                    
REFLECTION. A STRONG 850 MB JETLET COULD TRAVERSE THE REGION ON                 
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD               
RESULT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY               
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER LAYER DRYING               
ALREADY IN PLACE.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.               
WINDS ARE ABOUT 30 KTS FROM 240 DEGREES 1000 FEET OFF THE GROUND                
AND 40 KTS FROM 260 DEGREES AT 2000 FEET. HOWEVER...MOST SITES                  
REMAIN MIXED AT THE SURFACE...SO THE ABSOLUTE WIND CHANGE IS NOT                
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GROUP.                                 
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OF OF THE WEST TODAY...THEN QUICKLY TURN OUT          
OF THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS            
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SO WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF CROSS WINDS             
BY MID AFTERNOON AT MANY TAF SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY DEEP                
MIXING LATER IN THE DAY...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A            
FEW CROSSWIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE UPSTATE               
TAF SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOKS AS IF KCLT              
WL SEE A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 22         
UTC WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.                                                
AS FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTION...THE NAM DEVELOPS A NARROW RIBBON              
OF HIGH INSTABILITY RIGHT ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA DURING THE            
AFTERNOON. HAVE A CB GROUP IN THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THE             
POTENTIAL EXITS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF KCLT             
FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BEGINNING AROUND 17 UTC. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH               
AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION OVER THE UPSTATE...BUT KAVL MAY            
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING.                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 7 PM               
     MONDAY.                                                                    
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082 UNTIL 7              
     PM MONDAY.                                                                 
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SAB                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   sc