FXUS04 KWBC 180651 PAA
QPFPFD

 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
250 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 19/1200 UTC THRU SEP 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...PRELIM DAY 1...

...NERN U.S...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING REMNANTS OF IVAN
..WHICH HAS TRANSLATED TO A WAVE ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL
BNDRY...TO THE EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HRS.  HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE PD IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FM NJ
NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ONE REMAINING STG FEEDER
BAND CONTAINING AXIS OF VERY HIGH PWS AND LOW LEVEL JET
BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KTS WILL INTERSECT NE TO SW ORIENTED FRONTAL
BNDRY.  WENT CLOSE TO MDL QPFS HERE OF .50 TO 1 INCH PLUS
AMOUNTS GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT..THOUGH SUSPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES THAT MAY
RESULT IN SOME ISOLD HIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES OR SO OVER
SRN NEW ENGLAND. 

...FL...
SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS XPCD ALONG TAIL END OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS ASSOCD WITH REMNANTS OF IVAN.   THIS COULD
SUPPORT SOME GREATER THAN .25 INCH AMOUNTS OVER SRN FL. 

...LWR MO VLY/CNTRL PLNS...
CONVECTION CONTS TO FIRE ACRS PARTS OF NRN MO WITH MOIST LOW
LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BACK OF THE COMPLEX RESULTING IN
CONTINUED REGENERATION OF CELLS.  MODELS MAINTAIN WARM
ADVECTION PATRN EARLY IN THE PD ACRS THIS REGION BEFORE LOW
LEVEL JET BACKS TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION LATER SAT.  ADDITIONAL .25
TO .50 INCH AREAL AMOUNTS ARE PSBL ACRS PARTS OF MO..THOUGH
ISOLD HIER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY.

...SWRN U.S...
THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPENING UPR TROF ALONG THE WEST
COAST..AND NEWD MOVEMENT OF HURCN JAVIER OFF THE BAJA
COAST..WILL ALLOW FOR A NWD SURGE OF DEEPER MSTR FROM THE
GULF OF CA INTO THE SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING RISK OF SHOWER/TSTMS SPREADING NWD OVER THE SW
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.   THE GFS STANDS ALONE WITH ITS 1 INCH PLUS
AMOUNTS OVER NW AZ BY 24 HRS.  ITS HARD TO SEE THIS DVLPG THAT
QUICKLY GIVEN DPS CURRENTLY IN THE 20S/30S OVER THAT REGION
ALONG WITH INTIAL MID/UPR LEVEL DRY AIR..SO TONED DOWN AMOUNTS
CONSIDERABLY.  OTHERWISE..EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO DVLP
BETWEEN 24 TO 36 HRS AND BEYOND AS LOW LEVEL MSTR ADVECTION
CONTS TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE REGION WITH AN EMPHASIS TOWARD
SRN/SWRN FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF AZ/SRN UT AND SRN
NM..WHERE HAVE DEPICTED .25 TO .50 INCH PLUS AREAL AVGS.

...PAC NW/NRN CA/NRN ROCKIES...
MDLS AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF
AMPLIFYING UPR TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST.  DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH SEVERAL S/WV IMPULSES WILL TAKE AIM AT THE
OR/NRN CA COAST.  SOME DECENT INSTABILITY LIKELY TO DVLP ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH APCHG COLD POOL ALOFT..SO THINK ETA AND
GFS MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE WITH AMOUNTS HERE.  FARTHER
INLAND...MOIST SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT PDS OF RAIN AND HIER ELEV
POST FRONTAL SNOWS OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.    

DAY 2...

JAVIER WILL BE WEAKENING BUT PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO
THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING THE MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LATITUDE RIDGE OVER MEXICO
BUT BY DAY 2 THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SHOULD HAVE MOVED
INTO POSITION TO PICK UP ON THE MOISTURE FROM JAVIER...FORECAST
TO BE CROSSING GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND FEEDING INTO AZ.
MEANWHILE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WHICH HAS BEEN FEEDING INTO
MEXICO WILL BE CONVERGING INTO THE SW AS WELL INTO THE APPCHG
TROUGH. ETA IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS MOVING THE TROUGH INTO
THE SW FROM THE OFFSHORE BUT BY 60 HOURS THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR. 
QPF IS SIMILAR IN EITHER CASE. WE WILL INCREASE THE QPF RELATIVE
THE MODELS AS THEY DO NOT MAINTAIN THE INTEGRITY OF THE
CIRCULATION AND MAY BE WEAK ON PCPN. LOOK FOR LARGE SCALE
AVERAGE OF 0.50"...AND MORE THAN 1.5" IN SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOCAL
AMOUNTS 3 INCHES IN TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES.

GREAT BASIN...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NORTHERN ROCKIES...VIGOROUS
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM PACIFIC. SATELLITE SHOWS IMPULSES
COMING FROM GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WILL ROTATE INTO AREA DAY 2.
PW IS LOW BUT GOOD DYNAMICS WITH JET CORE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT SUBSTANTIAL
COVERAGE OF MORE THAN 0.25".

UPPER MS VALLEY...GOOD 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONSISTENT IN
THE VARIOUS MODELS. CURRENTLY THIS LEVEL ADVECTING FROM GLFMEX
INTO MEXICO BUT WITH THE APPCHG TROF INTENSIFYING THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE MIDWEST HIGH WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND PCPN INTO MN LATE DAY 2. MASS FIELDS LOOK SIMILAR.
WE WILL GO HEAVIER THAN THE ETA IN THIS AREA...UP TO 0.50" ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER.

EASTERN US...IVAN LEAVES...JEANNE NOT A FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT.

SULLIVAN/KELLY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 467615 465610 463608 457607 452606 449608 445615 439623 
      430635 413657 409660 406665 402669 391675 385676 378680 
      374681 369684 354694 349698 348702 345704 338714 333723 
      330730 328737 330739 334739 331761 334771 340772 344774 
      343781 345786 350787 354790 357793 360796 363797 370797 
      373797 370802 364813 363816 364819 367820 372816 378810 
      386800 391796 397791 401787 406784 412778 418773 424761 
      432748 434742 438738 442731 445722 450708 454695 457689 
      460682 464675 466668 466659 464651 465641 466632 467615 
 0.01 535191 535185 533180 527173 520153 516145 512142 504140 
      495137 488131 486129 489124 496118 499113 500105 500098 
      497095 493094 485094 484093 484085 474082 471081 467081 
      460082 451084 438086 430084 425080 426066 425063 423061 
      420059 407051 389049 372046 361044 352044 345044 339045 
      331046 324045 321045 318052 312056 306058 301058 296057 
      292056 286054 279052 274052 269051 265046 261038 256033 
      250030 244027 240026 237027 231036 228040 229046 233064 
      236071 239076 255101 263112 272121 277122 281124 278127 
      276131 277138 281143 287145 302142 310139 314140 317142 
      320145 321149 320155 321161 322164 325164 330163 337161 
      345158 350157 363156 369154 375150 378147 381142 384134 
      388128 394124 401122 411125 414129 414134 409141 398155 
      394162 392166 391168 392170 396172 400172 405170 412166 
      417162 423158 422166 427170 432171 437169 445170 453167 
      455169 454175 450180 447187 449189 451189 453188 456189 
      454192 449199 441207 438210 434212 428207 426206 422209 
      422217 417217 411212 407211 402212 397216 398223 393225 
      388222 383221 380225 380229 381232 383235 389240 396247 
      400253 402259 403268 405276 408281 413285 417287 428289 
      435287 440282 446275 452269 465261 472258 475256 479256 
      488256 492255 494253 495247 492238 486228 491230 493233 
      499241 503247 508249 511246 511241 509235 509228 509220 
      509216 512213 518209 528201 535191 
 0.01 512955 511948 508942 505939 501936 492933 483934 478937 
      475940 469948 466953 465958 465963 468965 471965 483961 
      494957 506956 512955 
 0.01 411945 412937 410930 404921 398917 394915 388913 385911 
      381911 376910 370910 368914 368917 370925 373930 375934 
      377937 380944 385951 388956 392957 397958 403957 406956 
      407954 409949 411945 
 0.01 390202 389201 387199 386197 384194 382193 381192 379191 
      377191 378195 378196 381198 383200 386202 389202 390202 
 0.01 276801 275799 271797 267796 267792 264792 259794 249798 
      242804 241807 240813 240816 241822 244826 246826 248823 
      252817 255816 260818 264819 267818 274815 278811 277804 
      276801 
 0.01 300005 299001 296001 290001 287000 283993 280985 278975 
      276967 273958 269952 264952 261954 257961 250972 246978 
      244986 244992 247995 253999 259000 264002 267005 270008 
      278012 285014 292015 295015 297011 300005 
 0.25 459634 456626 452625 446630 432647 420662 408677 403686 
      397694 390700 381706 372712 369716 368719 366729 357733 
      352741 347746 344751 344756 348760 352760 360760 362761 
      366764 367771 370773 377775 381776 386774 392772 403769 
      410766 416760 421754 427746 432737 439721 447702 452684 
      455674 457665 458648 459638 459634 
 0.25 521187 521180 519175 515171 510167 505165 499168 498172 
      498177 500184 500191 499200 501203 504203 507202 513199 
      517196 519191 521187 
 0.25 480239 476233 472233 468231 466227 467221 468217 466215 
      461215 454215 446217 439219 431224 425229 420228 415225 
      408227 402233 400235 400238 401241 405250 410256 418260 
      426263 432261 449255 455252 462247 467243 472242 477243 
      480239 
 0.25 480213 479210 476209 473210 472210 470212 468214 469218 
      472217 476216 479214 480213 
 0.25 447154 450150 450146 448144 445143 442143 439143 438145 
      439148 439149 438149 437153 438154 441156 444155 447154 
      447154 
 0.25 447133 445131 444129 443126 442129 440131 438132 436136 
      436137 439139 442139 444137 445136 447133 
 0.25 394934 391932 390931 388930 386932 388935 389936 392938 
      394934 
 0.25 396087 395083 392082 385083 378086 375091 371097 369106 
      366111 360114 355115 352113 348110 341097 335094 328094 
      321091 317089 313089 304089 298090 291092 285095 284098 
      285101 288106 297116 304119 310120 314124 318127 322127 
      326125 328122 332122 336128 339134 341137 344139 352139 
      359137 367137 373135 377130 381123 385116 381108 384102 
      395091 396087 
 0.25 347065 349062 347058 344056 338056 333056 327057 324062 
      323065 324070 327072 330071 335071 338072 342072 345068 
      347065 
 0.25 270807 269806 267805 265805 263805 260806 258808 258809 
      261810 262810 264810 267810 270809 270807 
 0.50 455652 454646 452644 448648 437659 426670 416680 406691 
      399702 396709 397713 402715 404718 406722 405729 403735 
      396746 390751 388755 385758 384762 390765 392766 396765 
      401761 415753 421747 424744 432730 437719 443705 452679 
      454667 455652 
 0.50 516190 516186 515181 512181 509182 508184 506188 505190 
      505192 505193 508197 511196 513194 514193 516190 
 0.50 460241 462236 461233 457232 446233 443232 438231 432232 
      425234 417231 413232 408237 407242 407246 412250 417252 
      424258 427259 432257 441252 451247 456244 460241 
 0.50 384744 383740 382740 380742 378743 377743 375745 374745 
      372748 370748 369748 369752 371753 373751 377751 377752 
      379751 381750 382749 383744 384744 
 0.50 365129 364121 361119 357120 355122 353123 351121 348116 
      343110 339111 337113 337120 340126 345133 348134 354131 
      356127 359128 365131 365129 
 0.50 320115 322108 323105 321102 318101 315102 310102 307101 
      304096 299094 294097 292100 294103 298107 301109 304111 
      309113 315113 318115 320115 
 1.00 448668 448667 445668 443672 442672 441675 439678 438680 
      441683 441684 444685 445685 446684 447682 449678 449677 
      449672 448668 448668 
 1.00 434715 431708 428708 425710 424714 423719 421724 419729 
      418734 419739 421738 424734 427729 430724 432721 434715 
 1.00 452239 451238 449237 446237 448240 451239 452239 
 1.00 447241 446237 443237 440237 437238 433239 431240 430241 
      427242 426243 426247 428248 429248 432249 435249 438247 
      439247 441245 443244 445242 447241  
 
24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 232005 240007 248008 256004 263999 271995 274993 274989 
      274976 267971 260968 252965 244963 237959 231954 231953 
 0.01 224064 237069 250074 258081 263095 271103 275108 276113 
      276118 278122 282126 291133 297136 303141 312143 322144 
      330144 337143 351144 366140 371137 375131 377124 379122 
      383121 387121 391122 399124 406127 409129 408134 402140 
      398147 396154 396164 396173 395183 375198 368212 365219 
      365222 368226 376236 382241 392245 401250 406253 420260 
      427263 434262 447258 461255 467253 473250 480248 487248 
      490244 491240 491236 493233 497232 502227 504221 504214 
      503206 505196 506184 506180 504175 502172 497171 493170 
      492166 495158 497148 500141 502132 500121 503112 507101 
      512093 515086 520081 529068 540053 543047 548039 551030 
      551024 549018 548016 542011 536007 527005 520002 522990 
      534956 539937 541927 543916 544896 542885 540877 536868 
      533865 528865 523868 518871 513878 508882 504888 492901 
      473926 459955 452957 446957 428955 424956 420958 414962 
      410966 406972 401977 396981 385988 371996 358000 350003 
      344003 336002 328001 321000 315003 312008 312013 310016 
      306020 299024 287025 279024 273026 267026 260028 252030 
      245030 228028 
 0.01 485187 485183 483179 480178 474178 471180 467185 464190 
      461193 457195 455198 454201 458207 460207 465204 469201 
      472198 475196 479195 482191 485187 
 0.01 446203 446199 444198 440197 437194 436186 436177 433164 
      432155 430148 431137 428135 428147 427157 425163 422172 
      422174 422184 420193 416208 423214 435211 441210 444207 
      446203 
 0.01 452064 444059 441056 436056 429060 424064 422068 418079 
      415088 415094 418096 421095 424091 430083 436075 439072 
      444069 452064 
 0.01 380701 378698 372699 365707 352719 340731 334738 327744 
      316756 310762 302766 285771 273777 264783 261789 259795 
      260805 262810 266815 270819 276821 282822 288821 293819 
      301815 310811 316807 322800 327794 336781 338776 341774 
      349769 355764 359760 360757 364754 366750 371743 376736 
      380728 382720 382714 380701 
 0.25 523938 523923 522917 520910 514904 512903 509904 498917 
      487925 483933 480941 476951 474960 472969 474982 476986 
      479989 485989 494988 503986 508981 513974 517968 520958 
      522948 523938 
 0.25 527048 528043 527038 523034 518034 516035 511038 505038 
      504035 505033 508028 511024 511021 509021 501013 498013 
      493014 487020 478028 470033 467038 476043 488045 489051 
      487056 484061 482064 473068 463074 460077 457081 456087 
      453091 450093 444095 440097 438103 438108 440113 441117 
      440125 439129 438136 437145 437154 441162 445167 443174 
      442182 444187 450189 454188 459186 462183 464177 462170 
      461164 464158 470149 477145 480142 483136 483133 482125 
      483115 485109 491100 503085 510075 515067 527048 
 0.25 496213 496206 495200 494198 491195 481204 470209 464212