000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180248
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
700 PM PST FRI NOV 17 2006
 
AFTER BECOMING ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY...A NEW BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  IN LIGHT OF THIS RECENT TREND...SERGIO IS MAINTAINED
AS A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM.  WHILE THE CYCLONE COULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY/STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO
ULTIMATELY CAUSE WEAKENING. 
 
SERGIO HAS MADE AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/6. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES TOWARD THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW.  THIS TRACK IS IN BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM
MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 14.5N 103.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.1N 103.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.9N 104.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 106.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 17.0N 107.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
 

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180248
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
700 PM PST FRI NOV 17 2006
 
AFTER BECOMING ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY...A NEW BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  IN LIGHT OF THIS RECENT TREND...SERGIO IS MAINTAINED
AS A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM.  WHILE THE CYCLONE COULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY/STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO
ULTIMATELY CAUSE WEAKENING. 
 
SERGIO HAS MADE AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/6. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES TOWARD THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW.  THIS TRACK IS IN BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM
MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 14.5N 103.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.1N 103.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.9N 104.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 106.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 17.0N 107.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME