AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
639 PM PDT MON APR 14 2008                                                      
.MESO UPDATE...                                                                 
DAMAGING WIND EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                 
PER LATEST LOCAL WRF AND RUC PRESSURE GRADIENT/700MB WIND                       
DATA...WE EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE WINDS TO PERSIST IN THE RENO                  
AREA THROUGH 8-9 PM PDT...WITH STRONG WINDS INCREASING ACROSS                   
MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES THROUGH LATE EVENING. HAVE ISSUED AN                      
UPDATED HW.W AND SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. WE ARE RECEIVING              
REPORTS OF DAMAGE DUE TO THE WIND IN THE RENO AREA...SEE LSR REPORTS            
FOR DETAILS. ALSO GETTING REPORTS OF ZERO VSBY IN BLOWING DUST IN               
WRN NV.                                                                         
WE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN                
LASSEN COUNTY UP INTO THE SURPRISE VALLEY. LIFT ASSOC WITH STRONG               
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 4Z PER THE                   
LATEST RUC. KAAT CHECKED IN WITH 1/4SM IN HEAVY SNOW LAST HOUR.                 
WE WILL MENTION SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.                           
FORECAST UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                                   
CS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                  
ONGOING WIND EVENT IS THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY.               
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE OREGON COAST AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT              
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN               
OREGON AND REACHING I-5 IN FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE                  
FRONT...COLD UNSTABLE AIR WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF                  
I-80 TONIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH               
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.                                                    
BACK TO THE WINDS...SPEEDS IN MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO                 
COME UP INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA...GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. THIS IS                 
MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE DOMINATE SOUTH-NORTH SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH              
IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS. THE EAST-WEST GRADIENT              
WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH                     
APPROACHES AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. THIS                
IS ALSO THE TIME THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA AND MODELS SHOW THE              
BEST MOUNTAIN WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE WINDS. SO                  
EXPECTING MAX WINDS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM MOST AREAS...THUS EXTENDED           
THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS NORTH OF US-50 THROUGH 10PM.                        
SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED LOW VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES               
DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS...ALL ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA                
AND OUT TO LOVELOCK AND FALLON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE               
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO ALL                 
ZONES BUT TAHOE.                                                                
BEYOND TONIGHT...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTH AND MUCH COLDER.                   
HIGHS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES COLDER TOMORROW THEN SLOWLY REBOUND                 
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.  BRONG                   
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT                 
SIGNIFICANT LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND BRINGING ANOTHER                 
ROUND OF MUCH COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER              
BEYOND SUNDAY THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT DEVELOPING...MAINLY WITH               
THE EUROPEAN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE                     
OFF THE SRN CA COAST MOVING EAST AND GETTING ABSORBED BY THE MAIN               
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE               
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT TO BRING SOME                 
POSSIBLE CLOUDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AS HEIGHTS LOWER.                  
THE MAIN STORY IS STILL THE COLD CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE             
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LOW DROPPING OVER WA ON            
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH EXACT LOW                  
LOCATION WHETHER IT BE INLAND OR CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE EUROPEAN              
AND CANADIAN KEEP THE MAIN LOW OVER COASTAL PAC NW THROUGH SUNDAY               
WITH SHORT WAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR AREA USHERING IN THE               
COOLER AIR AND SOME PRECIP. THE GFS DRIVES THE LOW SOUTH INTO NRN NV            
ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.                                   
BEYOND SUNDAY MORNING THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE                          
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE LOW SOUTH INTO               
CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE -36 C 500 MB COLD POOL                 
DROPPING RIGHT OVER WRN NV. 700 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -16 C ON                
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. WITH SUCH A COLD                               
CORE...INSTABILITY SHOWERS WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS COLD AIR WOULD                 
DROP SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY FLOORS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS                      
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS COOLER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL               
MODEL MAY BE STILL TOO COLD.                                                    
THE EUROPEAN ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEEN TRYING TO DIVERGE FROM                  
THIS SOLUTION SINCE THE 00Z RUN. IT FAVORS THE MAIN LOW STAYING                 
FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE UNDERCUTTING OF THE ALASKA RIDGE HELPING                
TO FLATTEN FLOW AND PUSH FIRST WAVE EAST OF AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
WITH THE FIRST WAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY THEN A ZONAL               
WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS                 
WOULD SUGGEST WARMING TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY.                                   
TELECONNECTIONS FOCUSING ON THE STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY IN THE BAY              
OF ALASKA NEXT WEEK WOULD SUGGEST A COOLER AND SHOWERY PATTERN FOR              
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONTINUES               
TO FOLLOW THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS FOR NOW AND STAYS WITH A                   
COOLER PATTERN...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS SUGGESTS.                      
WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHES                 
THROUGH THE AREA...SO EXPECT GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ONCE AGAIN.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BEGIN ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S             
IN WRN NV...THEN DROP TO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY             
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. GMCGUIRE                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST/REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE              
BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING KLOL/KNFL THIS AFTERNOON. WIND WILL BE THE            
MAIN ISSUE WITH RIDGE TOP WINDS 80-90 KTS AND VALLEY WINDS 20-30 KTS            
WITH GUSTS OVER 45 KTS THROUGH 03Z...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH            
06Z. SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS DIMINISHED AS WINDS HAVE               
MIXED DOWN...HOWEVER SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL STILL EXIST THROUGH            
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KRNO/KTVL/KTRK AS SURFACE WINDS ARE S-SSW AND               
WINDS 1-2K FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE WSW-W. THEREFORE TURBULENCE               
WILL STILL EXIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS              
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS                  
PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. GMCGUIRE                                               
&&                                                                              
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004-005.                 
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001>003.             
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ070-071.                 
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ072-073.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO                                                         
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
140 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
MUCH COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD AS NORTHERLY FLOW                 
REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH MONDAY.  THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD                 
OBSERVE A LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN              
DRY.  THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /INTO THE OVERNIGHT/...                                              
MOST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION END.                     
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UPSLOPE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND             
SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENS. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC...WITH               
SOME MOISTURE REMAINING (ALTHOUGH OUR RAOB WAS INCOMPLETE).                     
RUC AND NAM DATA SUPPORT A SLOW DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT SO WILL                  
CONTINUE THAT IDEA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF               
CLOUDS UPSTREAM AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE.                                      
WAS TEMPTED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD...BUT BELIEVE THE CLOUDS              
WILL PARTIALLY ERODE AWAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IF THE AREA                        
DECOUPLES...TEMPERATURES WOULD DROP QUITE A BIT.                                
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS AS IS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                 
THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE                  
PROLONGED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -10C AND EVEN             
COLDER ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY WITH BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING               
OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL CU WHICH WILL BE MORE                    
CONCENTRATED INTO THE MOUNTAINS.  HERE IS WHERE THE LOW POPS WILL               
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP            
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT DRY AND FEWER CLOUDS TO             
CONTEND WITH IN THE SHORT TERM.                                                 
TEMPERATURES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR WILL REMAIN BELOW                 
NORMAL WITH EVEN COLDER VALUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR IDEAL                     
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON THIS IDEA               
AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST/GRID.  THEN LET             
THE WARM UP BEGIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                    
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A                
CUTOFF STORM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT                  
NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA WHILE YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING CUT OFF                  
BARRELS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO                 
FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR              
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH                
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS              
TUESDAY WILL START OUT AROUND 6-8 DEGREES C...BUT WILL GRADUALLY                
WARM TO 8-10 DEGREES C BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR               
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP IN AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MOHAWK            
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS            
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL REACH THE 60S...ALLOWING FOR MUCH OF            
THE REMAINING SNOW PACK TO MELT. THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A            
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA FOR THE FRIDAY TO                  
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS                    
FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS...WITH             
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER            
AND ALLOW THE 850 TEMPS TO DROP SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR              
THE WEEKEND AS WELL. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS             
WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT                     
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT OUR REGION...IF AT                   
ALL...IS STILL LOW. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF             
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF               
THE CWA.                                                                        
IN GENERAL...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE BELOW             
NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF               
THE TAF PERIOD (06Z TUESDAY). UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE REGION WILL             
PRODUCE SCT-BKN CU/SC CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT CIGS              
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET...THEN CLOUDS WILL BE CLEAR MONDAY                
NIGHT.                                                                          
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH                  
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO             
15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KALB. AFTER 23Z THE              
SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS...WITH LIGHT AND                
VARIABLE WINDS AFTER ABOUT 03Z.                                                 
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
LATE MON NIGHT-FRI. VFR. NO SIG WX.                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
ONE MORE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON            
MONDAY KEEPING A CHILLY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY                 
NIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MUCH WARMER               
WEATHER EXPECTED BEGINNING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                       
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT                         
TONIGHT...FALL TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RECOVER TO 80 TO 100             
PERCENT MONDAY NIGHT...AND FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.                 
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...NORTHWEST AT 10            
TO 20 MPH ON MONDAY...NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...AND              
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO                  
MONDAY AND THEN DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY                  
NIGHT. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL THUS RECEDE IN MOST AREAS...                     
EXCEPT FOR THOSE IMPACTED BY SNOW MELT. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE              
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY TO SEASONABLE LEVELS...FOLLOWED              
BY WARM WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL MELT MUCH            
IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW PACK.                                   
STILL HAVE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOME NORTHERN RIVERS AND CREEKS.              
PLEASE REFER TO AHPS GRAPHICS ON THE WEB FOR MORE DETAIL ON SPECIFIC            
RIVERS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HWJIV                                                               
LONG TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
AVIATION...FRUGIS                                                               
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
120 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW                 
ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME             
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF             
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALSO MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY TUESDAY WITH                  
SUNSHINE AND A MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE                  
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...                                                
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AS AN UPPER              
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC VIA THE 07Z RUC13 OUTPUT                 
SHOWS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH              
HAS FOCUSED SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER CNTRL AND NRN NY.               
THE KENX RADAR AND REGIONAL MOSAIC SHOWS MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERY            
ACTIVITY.  THE BEST FORCING PRODUCING THE SHOWERS WILL BE DRIVEN BY             
THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...WHICH WILL TEND TO BE FROM THE               
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.                           
THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS               
CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE NRN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND            
BERKSHIRES THIS MORNING.  THIS TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE...AS THE                
TROUGH SAGS SOUTHEAST.  WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW             
SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT COATING TO QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE              
OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACK REGION.                                                 
AFTER NOONTIME...THE SCT SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED               
TERRAIN WHERE THE STEEPEST LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL                   
EXIST.  WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE HUDSON               
RIVER VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE...AND WITH SOME DOWN             
SLOPING IN THE NW FLOW OFF THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.                       
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...AND A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES COOLER              
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE M40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND              
M30S TO L40S ACROSS THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS...AS WEAK COLD AIR                  
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW 850 HPA TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND            
-6C OVER THE CAPITAL REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                              
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER            
LEVEL LOW DRIFTS OVER UPSTATE NY.  500 HPA TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSE TO             
-30C OVER THE ADIRONDACK REGION AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  850 HPA TEMPS            
WILL FALL TO -10C OR SO AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.  THE                 
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL LIKELY HOLD UP FROM THE N/NW AT AROUND 10             
KTS.  SOME ISOLD SHSNS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  THE                 
ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL SEE LOWS BELOW FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 20S.                
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES ACROSS NY AND NEW            
ENGLAND VIA THE GFS/NAM/CAN REG WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS...AND SOME                 
ISOLD-SCT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS IN THE FCST AREA. TEMPS            
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS /EXCEPT NEAR KPOU             
WHERE 50F IS POSSIBLE/...AND U30S TO L40S IN THE HILLS AND MTNS.                
CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SOME SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                               
MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW                 
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC              
RIDGING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...TEENS ARE POSSIBLE             
IN THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.                                        
TUE-TUE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID APRIL                
WITH RIDGING OCCURRING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.  HEIGHTS WILL BE                   
RAPIDLY RISING AT H500 FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW              
WILL BE REPLACING THE STUBBORN CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
CURRENT LONGWAVE TROUGH.  THE MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS...AND                  
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL                    
MODERATE BY MID WEEK AS 850 MB WARMS CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS              
IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY WITH 70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY NOSING INTO              
THE UPPER HUDSON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT                     
WAVE/TROUGH RIDES OVER TOP OF RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT SWINGING COLD FRONT            
THROUGH REGION BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. A COOLER AIR WILL BE            
USHERED IN...HOWEVER REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE             
50S AND 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. NORMAL FOR ALBANY THIS WEEK ARE HIGHS             
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINING WITH MID APRIL SUNSHINE HAS                 
RESULTED IN RATHER VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND SHOWERS.  IN FACT...SEVERAL            
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE HEAVIER CELLS. WILL TEMPO A GROUP              
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH A BKN MVFR DECK AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOSS              
OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL                 
DISSIPATE TO A FEW-SCT DECK WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE            
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...ADDITIONAL CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH            
MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL REMAIN VFR.                                            
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON PM-THU...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.                
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A COOL AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW                   
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO            
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND             
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT THIS                     
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL THEN RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY                   
MORNING...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.                        
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY AND MONDAY...AND              
WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
LOOKING AT A DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK SO MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL              
RECEDE...EXCEPT FOR THOSE IMPACTED BY SNOW MELT. IT WILL BE COOL THE            
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE SNOW MELT DURING THE DAY.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THEN WARM               
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE DIURNAL MELTING OF SNOW.             
STILL HAVE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOME NORTHERN RIVERS AND CREEKS.              
PLEASE REFER TO AHPS GRAPHICS ON THE WEB FOR MORE DETAIL ON SPECIFIC            
RIVERS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
145 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT               
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.  MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY            
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  HOWEVER...WARMER             
AND DRIER AIR IS SET FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6AM SUNDAY/...                                                
UPDATE THE ZONES MAINLY TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER NOW THAT               
THE FRONT HAS CROSSED THE ENTIRE REGION.                                        
THE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE ENTIRE REGION AND COOLING HAS BEGUN.             
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWS CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND             
A COLD POOL ALOFT SLOWLY SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN REGIONS FROM               
THE CD NORTHWARD. RADAR INDICATES NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES             
COMING OUT OF THE CLOUD DECK...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.                   
WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS (OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) WOULD             
BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SO WE RAISED POPS TO THE                
LIKELY THRESHOLD IN THAT REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND...WE LOWERED THEM            
A TAD FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...WHERE WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF               
SPRINKLES (NON-MEASURABLE SHOWERS) WILL FALL.                                   
WE BLENDED THE LATEST RUC/NAM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH FOR THE                
MOST PART...MEANT VERY MINOR (IF ANY) CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS                 
PACKAGE.                                                                        
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODELS AND              
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH SECONDARY COLD                 
FRONT SLIDING SOUTH AS MAIN UPPER LOW PIVOTS                                    
/RETROGRADES/ ACROSS QUEBEC AND ONTARIO.  A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT                
RADAR RETURNS WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY...LAKE                  
ONTARIO AND INTO NIAGARA FALLS.  THERE IS A NARROW REGION OF                    
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RADAR RETURN AND WILL                 
SLIDE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.  WILL INTRODUCE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH               
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY LIGHT QPF/S EXPECTED.  THIS             
WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS TO SWOLLEN RIVERS AND STREAMS.  WITH A             
WARMER START TO TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WILL               
GO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS /CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS/.             
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS CHICAGO AREA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE             
CWA SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE             
REGION UNIMPEDED AND TAKE THE LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH OF THE REGION BY               
SUNSET SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A            
GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.                   
THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS                 
AROUND -10C AND EVEN COLDER ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY WITH BASE OF THE               
UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL CU WHICH            
WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED INTO THE MOUNTAINS.  HERE IS WHERE THE LOW            
POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.                                              
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BECOME DOMINANT MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING                
SKIES AND NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TEMPERATURES            
TO DIP BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY             
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
VERY LITTLE TO DISCUSS IN THE LONG TERM AS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE               
ENTIRE PERIOD MAY BE DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE A            
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE FA THROUGH            
AT LEAST FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH FA FRIDAY               
NIGHT OR SATURDAY...BUT ECMWF BRINGS FRONT THROUGH MAINLY DRY AND IS            
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS WHICH WOULD BRING COLD FRONT                 
THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WILL OPT TO KEEP                   
FORECAST DRY UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF            
SHOWERS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED HIGHS WILL RISE FROM UPPER               
40S TO MID 50S ON TUESDAY TO 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY            
AND THEN DROP TO UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. SINCE MAINLY                 
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL                 
OCCUR RESULTING IN COOL NIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT                
BEFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING. HAVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK COVERING ABOUT THE            
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. KALB ON THE EDGE AT THIS TIME.              
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE              
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS              
MORNING. CLOUD COVER MAY GO SCATTERED FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON               
BUT BROKEN TO OVERCAST RETURN THIS EVENING. NW-NE WIND FLOW WITH                
GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH             
MVFR AT KGFL FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.                                     
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON-THU...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT              
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON            
ON SUNDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.                     
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT                         
TONIGHT...FALL TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...RECOVER TO 75 TO 100             
PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY.                  
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...NORTHWEST AT 10            
TO 20 MPH ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND               
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON MONDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...MORE SNOW MELT OCCURRED            
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHICH PRODUCED INCREASED RUNOFF INTO            
THE UPPER HUDSON. THEREFORE...WE REISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR             
FLOODING TO IMPACT BOTH HADLEY AND FORT EDWARD.                                 
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY               
BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT.            
RAINFALL FRIDAY AND LAST NIGHT WAS GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO            
AN INCH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES DID               
HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS.                                     
THE GOOD NEWS...LITTLE IF ANY QPF IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK              
AND AS A RESULT MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL RECEDE...EXCEPT FOR                
THOSE IMPACTED BY SNOW MELT. AS OF LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FLOODING             
REMAINED ALONG PARTS OF THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN MECHANICVILLE AND              
SCHUYLERVILLE...THE SCHROON RIVER NEAR RIVERBANK...THE WEST CANADA              
CREEK BELOW THE HINCKLEY DAM...THE EAST CANADA CREEK NEAR DOLGEVILLE            
AND THE MOHAWK RIVER NEAR LAKE DELTA. SNOW MELT WILL SLOW DOWN LATER            
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.                                  
PLEASE REFER TO AHPS GRAPHICS FOR MORE DETAIL ON SPECIFIC RIVERS.               
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
726 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT               
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY                
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY                   
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR. FROST IS LIKELY LATE               
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                   
SLOWLY MODIFY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND.                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS 15 TO 23 MPH AND GUST TO 30                 
MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO                      
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SO HAVE EXTENDED LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH              
9 PM. ALSO. STRONG SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CAROLINA PRODUCING A                 
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. RUC MODEL                     
SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS BY 03Z.                             
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN SPREADING               
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS/NAM              
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                      
PRETTY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS TO TOUCH OFF ANY                  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWER LAYER REMAINS STABLE WITH NAM LIS +8/+12               
AND CAPES NEAR ZERO. LIKE THE MOS GUIDANCE POPS 30-40 PERCENT FOR               
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST                   
MONDAY EVENING AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER AREA. SO WILL DROP CHANCES              
FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES               
STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60 TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BARELY BREAK 60 IN MOST                
LOCATIONS. WHICH GIVES THE PROBLEM OF COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY                 
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES IN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CAE HAS              
ADVERTISED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST                
THIS PERIOD. THIS ASSESSMENT IS STILL VALID. STILL A BIT EARLY FOR              
ANY WATCHES...WARNINGS OR STATEMENT SINCE IN THE FIFTH PERIOD. BUT              
WILL PROBABLY BE ADDRESSED DURING DAY SHIFT MONDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
AGREE WITH GFS SOLUTION. STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST BY                      
WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH                  
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EAST.               
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND CONTINUE               
FRIDAY. NICE SPRINGLIKE WEATHER WITH A WARM UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES               
IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASE TO THE LOWER 80S BY                    
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM              
IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS                      
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY END OF               
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.                 
EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AFTER SUNDOWN. LIFT             
FROM A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF MID LEVEL             
CLOUD COVER...WITH ASSOCIATED VIRGA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MANAGING TO             
REACH THE GROUND DESPITE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR....MAINLY JUST NE OF OUR             
FORECAST AREA. PIREP OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ALOFT JUST EAST OF CLT             
AT 2230Z...AND OTHER PIREPS IN THAT AREA REPORTING MODERATE MID                 
LEVEL TURBULENCE. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO THE               
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES THIS EVENING. DESPITE                      
APPEARANCE THAT WINDS COULD DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS              
DAYBREAK MONDAY...FOG NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND              
ALSO POSSIBLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT MAY STREAM IN LATE. MVFR           
CIGS AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY                      
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A                      
SURFACE TROUGH COME THROUGH...BUT THINK THIS WILL BE MAINLY AFTER               
00Z TUESDAY.                                                                    
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY                 
THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-             
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                                           
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-                 
     063>065-077.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DCM                                                                  
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CURRENT TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST IN                   
HOURLY GRIDS. ALSO DEW POINTS RUNNING UP TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN              
FORECAST IN GRIDS. WILL THEREFORE MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR               
THE ABOVE. ALSO...STRATO CU DECK OVER TENNESSEE HAVING A HARD TIME              
PUSHING SOUTH AND FEEL THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL THE H5 VORT MAX               
MOVES TO OUR EAST WHICH WONT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                  
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE RUC. WILL THEREFORE KEEP ALL BUT THE                   
EXTREME NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY. THE EXTREME NORTH WILL SOME SOME OF                 
THE STRATO CU BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ALTHOUGH THERE              
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT OVER                  
MOST OF CENTRAL GA. PLUS SUSTAINED WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO NEAR 20              
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURES ARE DROPPING AND SHOULD              
BE BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTH GA                  
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS                
AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NORTH GA WHERE TEMPS WILL BE LOWER                
KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 25 PERCENT AND WINDS WILL ALSO                
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.                                                 
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                  
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...                   
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...                
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...                    
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...                     
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...               
HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...                     
JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...                           
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...                
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...                 
POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...                   
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...                   
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...                
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...                    
WILKINSON.                                                                      
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                     
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...                   
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...                        
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...               
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...                   
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...                       
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...                       
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...                          
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...                      
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...                  
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...                  
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...                        
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...               
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...                    
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...                   
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...                    
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1210 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CHANGES MADE FOR PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE IN PRECIPITATION WORDING...LOWER                          
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS...AND ADJUSTING WIND               
TRENDS DOWNWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.                                       
ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE..WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE               
06/12Z SUNDAY GFS AND THE 15Z 13KM RUC...MISSED THE MINOR VORT                  
CENTER/SMALL LOW OVER SWRN IN...BUT DEPICTED THE LOW IN OHIO VERY               
WELL. GIVEN THIS DEFICIENCY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL                  
LIFT/COOLING THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERED TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT               
AND CHANGED PRECIPITATION TO CATEGORICAL WORDING. THE INTRODUCTION              
OF THE INTERMITTENT WORDING TO PARTS OF SERN MO/PURCHASE AREA OF                
WEST KENTUCKY WAS INTENDED TO HANDLE THE WEAKER LIFT IN THIS AREA.              
FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE...IT WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE               
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE TROUGH IN THE                     
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WERE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED FROM THE                
SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER                    
TRANSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW IN THE NEAR TERM AND MAY INHIBIT THE               
PROGRESSION OF CLOUD COVER FROM THE WFO PAH CWA...LIMITING THE                  
POTENTIAL OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO                
WAIT AND SEE HOW THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLES THE UPPER TROUGH                
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND ITS EFFECT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE COUNTRY...EAST OF THE              
ROCKIES AT THIS TIME...WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER                         
INDIANA/OHIO AND ANOTHER LOW OVER QUEBEC. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER                 
AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS                      
FEATURE. SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SAME TYPE OF WEATHER TODAY AS THE               
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH. SO CLOUDY...COOL...BREEZY              
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. COULD SEE A FEW                  
SNOWFLAKES EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. TAMDAR                       
SOUNDING OUT OF KPAH AT 0139Z SUNDAY...SHOWED 2500 FT OF WARM AIR               
SO NOT AS CONFIDENT OF SEEING ANY SNOWFLAKES THIS FAR                           
SOUTH...UNLESS WE COOL A LITTLE MORE TOWARD SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE              
WITH THE LIKELIES IN THE EAST...AS DEEPEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE               
CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS                         
SUSPECTED...TEMPERATURES DID NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM THE MORNING                 
LOW...AND AM AFRAID THE SAME WILL HAPPEN TODAY. WITH CURRENT                    
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40...CAN ONLY BE HOPEFUL                
THAT WE WILL SEE LOW TO MID 40S EVERYWHERE FOR HIGHS TODAY.                     
FOR TONIGHT...GFS STILL INDICATING A SECONDARY WAVE ROTATING DOWN               
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL QPF. THE NAM HAS FINALLY COME                 
AROUND AS WELL AND NOW SHOWS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL...MINUS THE QPF              
THOUGH. BOTH MODELS REALLY SHUT OFF THE REALLY DEEP MOISTURE AFTER              
ABOUT 03Z MONDAY. BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO                
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN                
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                  
STILL UNSURE ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPS FOR LATE                   
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS WANTS TO ADVECT                 
SOME EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM                
DOES NOT. HOWEVER...THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER WITH               
REGARDS TO 850MB TEMPS. THE GFS PICKED UP ON SOME -8 TO -9 DEG C                
H85 TEMPS UP IN MN AND WI (VIA THE UPPER AIR PLOTS)...AND THE NAM DID           
NOT. THAT COLD AIR IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN HERE LATER                   
TONIGHT. LOOKING AT THE GFS MOS...APPEARS THAT JUST THE FAR                     
NORTHERN AREAS MIGHT GET TO THE FREEZING MARK OR SLIGHTLY                       
BELOW...MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. OVERCAST SKIES AND A                 
SLIGHT WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST FORMATION HOWEVER. DUE TO                 
SUCH A CLOSE CALL...WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE LAST LOOK AND DECIDE            
IF A FREEZE WARNING IS WARRANTED FOR TONIGHT.                                   
WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR                    
MONDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LINGER                
SOME MOISTURE AROUND IN THE EAST SINCE IT STILL ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE               
OFF A LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE REST OF THE AREA                
SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. STILL PLENTY OF                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...SO WILL STILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS TO                   
DEAL WITH...BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE SUN BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY                 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.                    
HOWEVER...THE GFS PAINTS A MORE GLOOMY PICTURE AS FAR AS CLOUDS                 
ARE CONCERNED FOR MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA               
ON MONDAY...WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO KEEP CLOUDS IN                            
PLACE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.                                        
ON MONDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PULLING                
EAST OF THE AREA AND HEIGHTS RISING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD                   
BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR                  
FAIRLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FROST AND EVEN A LIGHT FREEZE. LATEST               
GUIDANCE TEMPS INDICATE MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S                
SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS TIME            
PERIOD. WILL USE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE                   
THREAT FOR NOW.                                                                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS                     
OVERHEAD AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS                     
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING AS A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                 
PATTERN SETS UP. DIFFERENCES STILL LIE IN THE EXTENDED WITH                     
REGARDS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF GREATLY DIFFER AS TO              
HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO                
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SPRINKLES. THROUGH THE MID                
MORNING HOURS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS            
AROUND 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY MIDDAY...THEN                    
DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SMITH/CN                                                           
LONG TERM....CN                                                                 
AVIATION...SMITH                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 PM EDT MON APR 14 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AFTER A BUSY WEEK LAST WEEK WITH WINTER WEATHER...THIS WEEK LOOKS A             
LOT QUIETER AND WARMER. 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT               
ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING BUILDING UP               
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING OVER            
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. DESPITE THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN                     
U.S...THE RIDGE IS MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP EASTWARD. CURRENTLY UPPER              
MI LIES IN-BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE             
SURFACE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR EXISTS UNDER THIS RIDGE...AS NOTED BOTH            
BY CLEAR SKIES AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM CWPL AND INL. IT SHOULD ALSO              
BE NOTED THAT THOSE SOUNDINGS MIXED UP TO AT LEAST 800MB.                       
UPSTREAM...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE              
UPPER RIDGE. MUCH OF THIS CIRRUS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT TRIES TO            
CROSS EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...LIKELY DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE               
OCCURRING ON THE EAST SIDE. UNDERNEATH THIS CIRRUS SHIELD ON THE                
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...THOUGH...850MB TEMPS ARE                       
CLIMBING...WITH 00Z READINGS OF 3C AT BIS...7C AT THE PAS AND 12C AT            
GGW. COMPARE THIS TO THE -6C READINGS OVER UPPER MI. LOOKING AT                 
HIGHS YESTERDAY...THERE WERE PLENTY OF 70S HIGH TEMPS IN                        
MONTANA...SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH EVEN A              
FEW LOW 80S MIXED IN.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS...AND PCPN CHANCES FOR WED THROUGH THU.                                    
TODAY THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL               
AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH TUE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS              
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO LATE              
TODAY...OVER UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE AND THEN TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z                  
WED...AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW MOVES INLAND INTO THE WESTERN            
U.S.. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE                
MOVES SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH UPPER MI MOVES TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE                
RIDGE AXIS ON TUE...AND IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE               
SURFACE RIDGE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF              
THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT EITHER                 
THROUGH TUE...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS NEAR THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS              
CROSSING UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TUE MORNING. THEREFORE...              
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS GOING TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING DURING            
THE DAY. MIXING WILL BE ENHANCED EVEN MORE BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT              
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE             
DEPARTING HIGH...AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS (LOW OF 987MB PROGGED NEAR PIERRE AT 00Z WED).                  
HAVING A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ALSO HELPS FOR DEEP MIXING...AND THIS             
WAS SEEN AT BOTH CWPL AND INL. REGARDING TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD...             
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...LAKE BREEZES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THESE WILL KEEP THE SHORELINE AREAS              
COOLER. HOWEVER...INLAND AREAS WITH A LIGHT SW WIND SHOULD BE ABLE              
TO MIX UP TO 800MB....RESULTING IN READINGS IN THE LOW 50S. FOR                 
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY BE ABLE TO COOL QUICKLY IN THE INLAND AREAS              
OF THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI BEFORE SOUTH WINDS STRENGTHEN. WILL                
FOLLOW GUIDANCE WITH MID 20S. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THEN                
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM            
DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUE AS A PLUME OF AROUND 8C 850MB TEMPS SPREADS              
INTO UPPER MI FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...MIXING SHOULD BE                
MAXIMIZED WITH THE DRY AIR...SUNSHINE AND BREEZY SSW WINDS IN PLACE             
(GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH). VERY SURPRISED MODEL SOUNDINGS CANNOT MIX UP              
HIGHER THAN 850MB. GIVEN THE WARMTH UPSTREAM IN MONTANA...WILL GO               
INTO THE LOW 70S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. MID APRIL 2002 PROVES HOW WARM             
WE CAN GET WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND...WHICH IS DUE TO ALL THE CONIFER            
TREES WE HAVE HERE. MUCH COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LAKE                
MICHIGAN...THOUGH...DUE TO THE SW WIND BRINGING COLDER MARINE AIR               
INLAND. THANKFULLY THE AIRMASS IS DRY OR WE WOULD HAVE VERY RAPID               
SNOWMELT...THOUGH GIVEN THE WARMTH AND WIND...AT LEAST MODERATE                 
SNOWMELT IS LIKELY.                                                             
TUE NIGHT AND WED...MODELS INDICATE BUILDING RIDGING THROUGH THE NE             
PACIFIC WHICH IN TURN HELPS TO PUSH THE WESTERN TROUGH EASTWARD.                
HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILT UP OVER THE EASTERN                         
U.S....ESPECIALLY BY WED...THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO PEEL APART              
INTO TWO PIECES. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS MORE                     
IMPORTANT TO OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN             
PLAINS AROUND 00Z THU. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED OVER THE DAKOTAS ON             
TUE FOLLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AND GETS LIFTED NE...REACHING NW                   
ONTARIO BY 00Z THU. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT                  
PROGRESSES...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF...00Z UKMET/NAM AND TRENDS IN THE 00Z            
GFS FROM YESTERDAY SUGGEST A SLOWER FRONT...AND THIS MAKE SENSE                 
GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST...             
REACHING IWD BY 00Z THU. PREFER THE NAM/UKMET WHICH KEEP IT CLOSER              
TO DLH. THIS MEANS CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH BREEZY                  
CONDITIONS INTO WED. GIVEN THE WARM TUE AND BREEZY TUE NIGHT...                 
ADJUSTED LOWS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ON                 
WEDNESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC IS                  
BROUGHT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS MAY HAMPER             
MIXING SOME ON WED...THUS THE GOING FORECAST OF JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER             
TEMPS COMPARED TO TUE SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM DOES               
PAN OUT...MAY HAVE BUMP TEMPS UP AS IT INDICATES A BIT MORE SUN.                
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND TO THE FRONT...AND DRY SOUNDINGS...HAVE                  
REMOVED PCPN CHANCES OVER LAND FOR WED.                                         
WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED            
BY MODELS TO LIFT INTO NW ONTARIO LATE THU. AHEAD OF THE                        
TROUGH...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE OTHER              
TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING UP ACROSS UPPER MI                 
DURING THE DAY THU. THIS SHRTWV IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP IN PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH HERE.              
IN ADDITION...THE SHRTWV WOULD GENERATE DPVA NORTH OF THE FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY AND LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. BOTH             
THE ECMWF AND GFS GENERATE PCPN FROM THIS SHRTWV IN THE AREA OF                 
CURRENT GOING POPS (SE U.P. ON THU) AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. STILL                  
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES                     
THROUGH...BUT AGAIN FEELING IS OVERALL A DRY NIGHT. GIVEN THE                   
FRONTAL PASSAGE...A COOLING TREND IS IN ORDER. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS            
BEING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...RAISED             
LOW TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN U.P..                               
BEYOND THU...NO CHANGES MADE. LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER GOING INTO               
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS OVER UPPER MI...WITH                
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER NE ONTARIO. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF             
THE HIGH...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR               
SHORELINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL              
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM 2C ON THU AND FRI TO 4C ON SAT AND 8C ON              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATE THE REGION.                 
LLWS DEVELOPS AT BOTH SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRONG SWRLY              
GRADIENT FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND                
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER INVERSION BREAKS             
BTWN 12Z AND 14Z TUE...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING OVR 30KT AT BOTH                 
SITES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS               
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO                  
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO LAKE               
ERIE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GALE FORCE               
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.             
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY                 
DIMINISH BLO 25 KNOTS BY THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE              
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AREA BEHIND              
THE FRONT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
728 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AFTER A BUSY WEEK LAST WEEK WITH WINTER WEATHER...THIS WEEK LOOKS A             
LOT QUIETER AND WARMER. 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT               
ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING BUILDING UP               
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING OVER            
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. DESPITE THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN                     
U.S...THE RIDGE IS MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP EASTWARD. CURRENTLY UPPER              
MI LIES IN-BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE             
SURFACE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR EXISTS UNDER THIS RIDGE...AS NOTED BOTH            
BY CLEAR SKIES AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM CWPL AND INL. IT SHOULD ALSO              
BE NOTED THAT THOSE SOUNDINGS MIXED UP TO AT LEAST 800MB.                       
UPSTREAM...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE              
UPPER RIDGE. MUCH OF THIS CIRRUS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT TRIES TO            
CROSS EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...LIKELY DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE               
OCCURRING ON THE EAST SIDE. UNDERNEATH THIS CIRRUS SHIELD ON THE                
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...THOUGH...850MB TEMPS ARE                       
CLIMBING...WITH 00Z READINGS OF 3C AT BIS...7C AT THE PAS AND 12C AT            
GGW. COMPARE THIS TO THE -6C READINGS OVER UPPER MI. LOOKING AT                 
HIGHS YESTERDAY...THERE WERE PLENTY OF 70S HIGH TEMPS IN                        
MONTANA...SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH EVEN A              
FEW LOW 80S MIXED IN.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS...AND PCPN CHANCES FOR WED THROUGH THU.                                    
TODAY THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL               
AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH TUE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS              
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO LATE              
TODAY...OVER UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE AND THEN TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z                  
WED...AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW MOVES INLAND INTO THE WESTERN            
U.S.. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE                
MOVES SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH UPPER MI MOVES TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE                
RIDGE AXIS ON TUE...AND IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE               
SURFACE RIDGE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF              
THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT EITHER                 
THROUGH TUE...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS NEAR THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS              
CROSSING UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TUE MORNING. THEREFORE...              
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS GOING TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING DURING            
THE DAY. MIXING WILL BE ENHANCED EVEN MORE BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT              
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE             
DEPARTING HIGH...AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS (LOW OF 987MB PROGGED NEAR PIERRE AT 00Z WED).                  
HAVING A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ALSO HELPS FOR DEEP MIXING...AND THIS             
WAS SEEN AT BOTH CWPL AND INL. REGARDING TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD...             
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...LAKE BREEZES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THESE WILL KEEP THE SHORELINE AREAS              
COOLER. HOWEVER...INLAND AREAS WITH A LIGHT SW WIND SHOULD BE ABLE              
TO MIX UP TO 800MB....RESULTING IN READINGS IN THE LOW 50S. FOR                 
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY BE ABLE TO COOL QUICKLY IN THE INLAND AREAS              
OF THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI BEFORE SOUTH WINDS STRENGTHEN. WILL                
FOLLOW GUIDANCE WITH MID 20S. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THEN                
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM            
DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUE AS A PLUME OF AROUND 8C 850MB TEMPS SPREADS              
INTO UPPER MI FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...MIXING SHOULD BE                
MAXIMIZED WITH THE DRY AIR...SUNSHINE AND BREEZY SSW WINDS IN PLACE             
(GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH). VERY SURPRISED MODEL SOUNDINGS CANNOT MIX UP              
HIGHER THAN 850MB. GIVEN THE WARMTH UPSTREAM IN MONTANA...WILL GO               
INTO THE LOW 70S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. MID APRIL 2002 PROVES HOW WARM             
WE CAN GET WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND...WHICH IS DUE TO ALL THE CONIFER            
TREES WE HAVE HERE. MUCH COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LAKE                
MICHIGAN...THOUGH...DUE TO THE SW WIND BRINGING COLDER MARINE AIR               
INLAND. THANKFULLY THE AIRMASS IS DRY OR WE WOULD HAVE VERY RAPID               
SNOWMELT...THOUGH GIVEN THE WARMTH AND WIND...AT LEAST MODERATE                 
SNOWMELT IS LIKELY.                                                             
TUE NIGHT AND WED...MODELS INDICATE BUILDING RIDGING THROUGH THE NE             
PACIFIC WHICH IN TURN HELPS TO PUSH THE WESTERN TROUGH EASTWARD.                
HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILT UP OVER THE EASTERN                         
U.S....ESPECIALLY BY WED...THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO PEEL APART              
INTO TWO PIECES. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS MORE                     
IMPORTANT TO OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN             
PLAINS AROUND 00Z THU. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED OVER THE DAKOTAS ON             
TUE FOLLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AND GETS LIFTED NE...REACHING NW                   
ONTARIO BY 00Z THU. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT                  
PROGRESSES...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF...00Z UKMET/NAM AND TRENDS IN THE 00Z            
GFS FROM YESTERDAY SUGGEST A SLOWER FRONT...AND THIS MAKE SENSE                 
GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST...             
REACHING IWD BY 00Z THU. PREFER THE NAM/UKMET WHICH KEEP IT CLOSER              
TO DLH. THIS MEANS CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH BREEZY                  
CONDITIONS INTO WED. GIVEN THE WARM TUE AND BREEZY TUE NIGHT...                 
ADJUSTED LOWS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ON                 
WEDNESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC IS                  
BROUGHT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS MAY HAMPER             
MIXING SOME ON WED...THUS THE GOING FORECAST OF JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER             
TEMPS COMPARED TO TUE SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM DOES               
PAN OUT...MAY HAVE BUMP TEMPS UP AS IT INDICATES A BIT MORE SUN.                
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND TO THE FRONT...AND DRY SOUNDINGS...HAVE                  
REMOVED PCPN CHANCES OVER LAND FOR WED.                                         
WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED            
BY MODELS TO LIFT INTO NW ONTARIO LATE THU. AHEAD OF THE                        
TROUGH...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE OTHER              
TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING UP ACROSS UPPER MI                 
DURING THE DAY THU. THIS SHRTWV IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP IN PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH HERE.              
IN ADDITION...THE SHRTWV WOULD GENERATE DPVA NORTH OF THE FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY AND LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. BOTH             
THE ECMWF AND GFS GENERATE PCPN FROM THIS SHRTWV IN THE AREA OF                 
CURRENT GOING POPS (SE U.P. ON THU) AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. STILL                  
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES                     
THROUGH...BUT AGAIN FEELING IS OVERALL A DRY NIGHT. GIVEN THE                   
FRONTAL PASSAGE...A COOLING TREND IS IN ORDER. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS            
BEING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...RAISED             
LOW TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN U.P..                               
BEYOND THU...NO CHANGES MADE. LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER GOING INTO               
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS OVER UPPER MI...WITH                
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER NE ONTARIO. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF             
THE HIGH...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR               
SHORELINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL              
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM 2C ON THU AND FRI TO 4C ON SAT AND 8C ON              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLWS AT BOTH TAF               
SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRONG SWRLY GRAD DEVELOPS BETWEEN              
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS               
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO                  
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO LAKE               
ERIE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GALE FORCE               
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.             
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY                 
DIMINISH BLO 25 KNOTS BY THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE              
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AREA BEHIND              
THE FRONT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION/MARINE...VOSS                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
429 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AFTER A BUSY WEEK LAST WEEK WITH WINTER WEATHER...THIS WEEK LOOKS A             
LOT QUIETER AND WARMER. 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT               
ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING BUILDING UP               
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING OVER            
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. DESPITE THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN                     
U.S...THE RIDGE IS MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP EASTWARD. CURRENTLY UPPER              
MI LIES IN-BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE             
SURFACE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR EXISTS UNDER THIS RIDGE...AS NOTED BOTH            
BY CLEAR SKIES AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM CWPL AND INL. IT SHOULD ALSO              
BE NOTED THAT THOSE SOUNDINGS MIXED UP TO AT LEAST 800MB.                       
UPSTREAM...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE              
UPPER RIDGE. MUCH OF THIS CIRRUS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT TRIES TO            
CROSS EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...LIKELY DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE               
OCCURRING ON THE EAST SIDE. UNDERNEATH THIS CIRRUS SHIELD ON THE                
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...THOUGH...850MB TEMPS ARE                       
CLIMBING...WITH 00Z READINGS OF 3C AT BIS...7C AT THE PAS AND 12C AT            
GGW. COMPARE THIS TO THE -6C READINGS OVER UPPER MI. LOOKING AT                 
HIGHS YESTERDAY...THERE WERE PLENTY OF 70S HIGH TEMPS IN                        
MONTANA...SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH EVEN A              
FEW LOW 80S MIXED IN.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS...AND PCPN CHANCES FOR WED THROUGH THU.                                    
TODAY THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL               
AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH TUE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS              
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO LATE              
TODAY...OVER UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE AND THEN TO LAKE HURON BY 00Z                  
WED...AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW MOVES INLAND INTO THE WESTERN            
U.S.. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE                
MOVES SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH UPPER MI MOVES TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE                
RIDGE AXIS ON TUE...AND IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE               
SURFACE RIDGE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF              
THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT EITHER                 
THROUGH TUE...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS NEAR THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS              
CROSSING UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TUE MORNING. THEREFORE...              
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS GOING TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING DURING            
THE DAY. MIXING WILL BE ENHANCED EVEN MORE BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT              
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE             
DEPARTING HIGH...AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS (LOW OF 987MB PROGGED NEAR PIERRE AT 00Z WED).                  
HAVING A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ALSO HELPS FOR DEEP MIXING...AND THIS             
WAS SEEN AT BOTH CWPL AND INL. REGARDING TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD...             
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...LAKE BREEZES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THESE WILL KEEP THE SHORELINE AREAS              
COOLER. HOWEVER...INLAND AREAS WITH A LIGHT SW WIND SHOULD BE ABLE              
TO MIX UP TO 800MB....RESULTING IN READINGS IN THE LOW 50S. FOR                 
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY BE ABLE TO COOL QUICKLY IN THE INLAND AREAS              
OF THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI BEFORE SOUTH WINDS STRENGTHEN. WILL                
FOLLOW GUIDANCE WITH MID 20S. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THEN                
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM            
DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUE AS A PLUME OF AROUND 8C 850MB TEMPS SPREADS              
INTO UPPER MI FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...MIXING SHOULD BE                
MAXIMIZED WITH THE DRY AIR...SUNSHINE AND BREEZY SSW WINDS IN PLACE             
(GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH). VERY SURPRISED MODEL SOUNDINGS CANNOT MIX UP              
HIGHER THAN 850MB. GIVEN THE WARMTH UPSTREAM IN MONTANA...WILL GO               
INTO THE LOW 70S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. MID APRIL 2002 PROVES HOW WARM             
WE CAN GET WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND...WHICH IS DUE TO ALL THE CONIFER            
TREES WE HAVE HERE. MUCH COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LAKE                
MICHIGAN...THOUGH...DUE TO THE SW WIND BRINGING COLDER MARINE AIR               
INLAND. THANKFULLY THE AIRMASS IS DRY OR WE WOULD HAVE VERY RAPID               
SNOWMELT...THOUGH GIVEN THE WARMTH AND WIND...AT LEAST MODERATE                 
SNOWMELT IS LIKELY.                                                             
TUE NIGHT AND WED...MODELS INDICATE BUILDING RIDGING THROUGH THE NE             
PACIFIC WHICH IN TURN HELPS TO PUSH THE WESTERN TROUGH EASTWARD.                
HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILT UP OVER THE EASTERN                         
U.S....ESPECIALLY BY WED...THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO PEEL APART              
INTO TWO PIECES. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS MORE                     
IMPORTANT TO OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN             
PLAINS AROUND 00Z THU. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED OVER THE DAKOTAS ON             
TUE FOLLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AND GETS LIFTED NE...REACHING NW                   
ONTARIO BY 00Z THU. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT                  
PROGRESSES...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF...00Z UKMET/NAM AND TRENDS IN THE 00Z            
GFS FROM YESTERDAY SUGGEST A SLOWER FRONT...AND THIS MAKE SENSE                 
GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST...             
REACHING IWD BY 00Z THU. PREFER THE NAM/UKMET WHICH KEEP IT CLOSER              
TO DLH. THIS MEANS CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH BREEZY                  
CONDITIONS INTO WED. GIVEN THE WARM TUE AND BREEZY TUE NIGHT...                 
ADJUSTED LOWS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ON                 
WEDNESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC IS                  
BROUGHT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS MAY HAMPER             
MIXING SOME ON WED...THUS THE GOING FORECAST OF JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER             
TEMPS COMPARED TO TUE SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM DOES               
PAN OUT...MAY HAVE BUMP TEMPS UP AS IT INDICATES A BIT MORE SUN.                
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND TO THE FRONT...AND DRY SOUNDINGS...HAVE                  
REMOVED PCPN CHANCES OVER LAND FOR WED.                                         
WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED            
BY MODELS TO LIFT INTO NW ONTARIO LATE THU. AHEAD OF THE                        
TROUGH...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE OTHER              
TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING UP ACROSS UPPER MI                 
DURING THE DAY THU. THIS SHRTWV IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP IN PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH HERE.              
IN ADDITION...THE SHRTWV WOULD GENERATE DPVA NORTH OF THE FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY AND LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. BOTH             
THE ECMWF AND GFS GENERATE PCPN FROM THIS SHRTWV IN THE AREA OF                 
CURRENT GOING POPS (SE U.P. ON THU) AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. STILL                  
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES                     
THROUGH...BUT AGAIN FEELING IS OVERALL A DRY NIGHT. GIVEN THE                   
FRONTAL PASSAGE...A COOLING TREND IS IN ORDER. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS            
BEING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...RAISED             
LOW TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN U.P..                               
BEYOND THU...NO CHANGES MADE. LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER GOING INTO               
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS OVER UPPER MI...WITH                
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER NE ONTARIO. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF             
THE HIGH...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR               
SHORELINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL              
AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM 2C ON THU AND FRI TO 4C ON SAT AND 8C ON              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                   
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THE CLEAR SKY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR             
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS 20Z MONDAY THROUGH MAINLY 15Z TUESDAY.  IF THESE             
POTENTIAL CLOUDS COME TO FRUITION...THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
WARM FRONT OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUR WAY. THIS                
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP WINDS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW                
10KT FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW               
WAS OVER ALBERTA...STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS               
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO                  
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO LAKE               
ERIE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GALE FORCE               
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.             
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY                 
DIMINISH BLO 25 KNOTS BY THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE              
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AREA BEHIND              
THE FRONT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION/MARINE...VOSS                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
403 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE               
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TWO LOW CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED IN                  
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND THEY ARE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND              
EASTERN OHIO. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH            
IS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA PRODUCING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD              
OF IT. A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH                 
CENTRAL CANADA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE RIDGE IS OVER             
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE BROAD RIDGE              
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STRETCHING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                             
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO EASTERN                
MANITOBA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE             
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE              
AND ALOFT...QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA                   
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIRMASS ALSO SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE                 
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WITH            
THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT                
...THERE SHOULD BE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT             
WINDS AND SNOW COVER FROM RECENT STORM. PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH A               
MINIMUM OF 0.10 INCH OR LESS TO ENHANCE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD FALL             
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION. WENT AS LOW AS 11F ACROSS                 
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE              
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WITH RIDGE CROSSING             
THE AREA ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. LAKE BREEZES             
SHOULD THEN OCCUR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AWAY FROM LAKE                          
INFLUENCE...MIXING TOWARD 800MB UNDER DRY AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD                  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.                           
.LONG TERM... (MON NIGHT THRU SUN)                                              
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY               
MON EVENING WILL MOVE E...EXTENDING FROM THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
TO THE LWR GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH             
PRES RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES MON EVENING              
WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH WILL BE                
SHIFTING E OF THE AREA...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY SINCE THERE IS            
NO RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INITIALLY. AS A RESULT...DRY              
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRU WED MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS.               
WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH RAPIDLY INCREASING JUST ABOVE              
INVERSION...MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN                
TONIGHT. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMP FALL WILL BE OVER THE ERN FCST               
AREA AS SFC HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE IN THE VCNTY EARLY IN THE                   
EVENING. SO...MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST E AND SE (MID/UPPER 20S) AND            
WARMEST FAR W (LOW/MID 30S) WHERE INCREASING WINDS WILL ASSIST IN               
LIMITING TEMP FALL.                                                             
VERY DRY COLUMN AND FULL SUNSHINE TUE ARGUES FOR DEEP MIXING WHICH              
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR. SNOW COVER WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT            
MIXING/HEATING DUE TO LWR ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI.                  
CONSERVATIVELY MIXING TO ONLY 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX                
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. WOULD LIKE TO SEE LOW-LEVEL FLOW            
HAVE MORE OF WRLY COMPONENT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING TEMPS             
OVER 70F. SO...WILL KEEP THE HIGH END OF MAX TEMPS IN THE 65-70F                
RANGE (ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE) W AND CNTRL FCST AREA. SRLY FLOW/MARINE              
LAYER OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL WORK TO LIMIT MIXING DEPTH OVER THE                
E...SO WILL RANGE TEMPS FROM THE 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE                  
LWR/MID 50S TOWARD THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. SFC DWPTS COULD CRASH               
LWR THAN WHAT THIS FCST REFLECTS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT              
COULD MIX DOWN. IN ANYCASE...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP TO                 
LIMIT SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE OCCUR WITH THESE                
WARM TEMPS. WITH 30-40KT IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT WILL BE A BREEZY               
DAY. SHOULD SEE GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH IN MOST AREAS.                                
SINCE PRES GRADIENT DOES NOT EASE TUE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP             
AS WINDS FAIL TO DECOUPLE COMPLETELY. AS A RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT               
TEMPS TO FALL ANY LWR THAN THE LOW/MID 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN              
OF THE W AND NCNTRL AND IN THE AREAS THAT DOWNSLOPE NEAR LAKE                   
SUPERIOR UNDER SRLY WINDS. COOLEST READINGS (MID/UPPER 30S) WILL BE             
OVER THE SCNTRL AND E.                                                          
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WED. SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN            
MAY OCCUR BY THEN UNDER PERSISTENT S TO SW WINDS...SO TEMPS MAY NOT             
BE AS WARM AS TUE. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL                    
MOISTENING...BUT THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. IN FACT...THE PCPN IT                     
GENERATES DURING WED MORNING IN ITS OVERDONE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS             
UNREALISTIC. IF THE DRIER NAM IS CORRECT...MAX TEMPS WED COULD BE               
2-5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUE. FOR NOW...WENT WITH MAX TEMPS SIMILAR              
TO TUE.                                                                         
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON LOW POPS FOR -SHRA WED AFTN OVER THE W AHEAD             
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE...WOULD NOT BE                 
SURPRISED IF -SHRA ARE TIED CLOSELY TO ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH              
WILL NOT REACH WRN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CARRIED              
LOW POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.              
THU THRU SUN...ECMWF/GLOBAL CANADIAN AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT              
ON THE PATTERN THRU THIS TIME PERIOD. IN GENERAL...PATTERN WILL                 
FEATURE A TROF OVER WRN CANADA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. WITH            
TIME...RIDGE WILL TEND TO BUILD AND EXPAND WWD. OVERALL...THIS                  
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER HERE WITH NO                      
SIGNIFICANT PCPN. ON THU...GFS SHOWS A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS             
THE UPPER LAKES. AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...IT ALSO CARRIES A STREAK OF              
PCPN UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. ECMWF IS WEAKER                
WITH THE JET AND FARTHER SE. AT THIS POINT...WILL JUST MAINTAIN LOW             
POPS ACROSS THE SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA PER PREVIOUS FCST. MODELS HAVE              
TRENDED WEAKER/FARTHER N WITH SHORTWAVE THAT WAS TO AFFECT THE UPPER            
LAKES FRI AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. AS A                    
RESULT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR N TO GENERATE ANY -SHRA OVER               
THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH THAT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS WELL N...THE                   
GFS/ECMWF CUT OFF A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS FRI...A NEW                
FEATURE NOT SEEN IN YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. THAT LOW THEN DRIFTS ENE             
THRU BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW TRACKS            
IS UNCERTAIN. IT COULD HEAD NE AROUND BUILDING RIDGE TOWARD THE                 
UPPER LAKES OR DRIFT FARTHER S UNDERNEATH THE MORE SHARPLY RISING               
HEIGHTS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS SE CANADA. GFS ENSEMBLES DON`T PROVIDE A            
CLEAR ANSWER. AT THIS POINT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BUILDING                 
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SFC HIGH PRES ROUGHLY OVER NE                      
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC REGION. WITH AT LEAST A PARTIAL FEED OF               
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH...ODDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR DRY                  
WEATHER PREVAILING UNLESS SHORTWAVE OR MID LEVEL LOW ACTUALLY TRACKS            
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FCST FRI THRU            
SUN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD WITH                 
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EACH AFTN AWAY FROM COOLING NEAR THE                 
GREAT LAKES. SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHRINK.                          
FORTUNATELY...NO MAJOR PCPN EVENTS ARE FORESEEN TO RAISE RIVER                  
LEVELS MORE THAN JUST WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOWMELT. STILL...               
ALL RIVER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH BY THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CEIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                  
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THE CLEAR SKY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR             
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH MAINLY 15Z TUESDAY.  IF THESE            
POTENTIAL CLOUDS COME TO FRUITION...THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
WARM FRONT OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUR WAY. THIS                
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP WINDS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW                
10KT FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY.  THE LOW WAS OVER            
ALBERTA...STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 25 KNOTS TODAY AS            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT                
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THRU MONDAY AS THE HIGH CROSSES. LOOK FOR               
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS               
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO LAKE ERIE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TUE EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE             
TWO SYSTEMS. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED AND DRAGS            
A FRONT ACROSS...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN                
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AREA BEHIND THE            
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
610 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE               
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TWO LOW CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED IN                  
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND THEY ARE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND              
EASTERN OHIO. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH            
IS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA PRODUCING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD              
OF IT. A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH                 
CENTRAL CANADA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE RIDGE IS OVER             
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE BROAD RIDGE              
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STRETCHING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                             
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO EASTERN                
MANITOBA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE             
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE              
AND ALOFT...QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA                   
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIRMASS ALSO SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE                 
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WITH            
THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT                
...THERE SHOULD BE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT             
WINDS AND SNOW COVER FROM RECENT STORM. PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH A               
MINIMUM OF 0.10 INCH OR LESS TO ENHANCE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD FALL             
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION. WENT AS LOW AS 11F ACROSS                 
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE              
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WITH RIDGE CROSSING             
THE AREA ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. LAKE BREEZES             
SHOULD THEN OCCUR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AWAY FROM LAKE                          
INFLUENCE...MIXING TOWARD 800MB UNDER DRY AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD                  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.                           
.LONG TERM... (MON NIGHT THRU SUN)                                              
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY               
MON EVENING WILL MOVE E...EXTENDING FROM THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
TO THE LWR GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH             
PRES RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES MON EVENING              
WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH WILL BE                
SHIFTING E OF THE AREA...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY SINCE THERE IS            
NO RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INITIALLY. AS A RESULT...DRY              
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRU WED MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS.               
WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH RAPIDLY INCREASING JUST ABOVE              
INVERSION...MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN                
TONIGHT. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMP FALL WILL BE OVER THE ERN FCST               
AREA AS SFC HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE IN THE VCNTY EARLY IN THE                   
EVENING. SO...MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST E AND SE (MID/UPPER 20S) AND            
WARMEST FAR W (LOW/MID 30S) WHERE INCREASING WINDS WILL ASSIST IN               
LIMITING TEMP FALL.                                                             
VERY DRY COLUMN AND FULL SUNSHINE TUE ARGUES FOR DEEP MIXING WHICH              
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR. SNOW COVER WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT            
MIXING/HEATING DUE TO LWR ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI.                  
CONSERVATIVELY MIXING TO ONLY 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX                
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. WOULD LIKE TO SEE LOW-LEVEL FLOW            
HAVE MORE OF WRLY COMPONENT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING TEMPS             
OVER 70F. SO...WILL KEEP THE HIGH END OF MAX TEMPS IN THE 65-70F                
RANGE (ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE) W AND CNTRL FCST AREA. SRLY FLOW/MARINE              
LAYER OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL WORK TO LIMIT MIXING DEPTH OVER THE                
E...SO WILL RANGE TEMPS FROM THE 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE                  
LWR/MID 50S TOWARD THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. SFC DWPTS COULD CRASH               
LWR THAN WHAT THIS FCST REFLECTS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT              
COULD MIX DOWN. IN ANYCASE...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP TO                 
LIMIT SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE OCCUR WITH THESE                
WARM TEMPS. WITH 30-40KT IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT WILL BE A BREEZY               
DAY. SHOULD SEE GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH IN MOST AREAS.                                
SINCE PRES GRADIENT DOES NOT EASE TUE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP             
AS WINDS FAIL TO DECOUPLE COMPLETELY. AS A RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT               
TEMPS TO FALL ANY LWR THAN THE LOW/MID 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN              
OF THE W AND NCNTRL AND IN THE AREAS THAT DOWNSLOPE NEAR LAKE                   
SUPERIOR UNDER SRLY WINDS. COOLEST READINGS (MID/UPPER 30S) WILL BE             
OVER THE SCNTRL AND E.                                                          
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WED. SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN            
MAY OCCUR BY THEN UNDER PERSISTENT S TO SW WINDS...SO TEMPS MAY NOT             
BE AS WARM AS TUE. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL                    
MOISTENING...BUT THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. IN FACT...THE PCPN IT                     
GENERATES DURING WED MORNING IN ITS OVERDONE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS             
UNREALISTIC. IF THE DRIER NAM IS CORRECT...MAX TEMPS WED COULD BE               
2-5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUE. FOR NOW...WENT WITH MAX TEMPS SIMILAR              
TO TUE.                                                                         
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON LOW POPS FOR -SHRA WED AFTN OVER THE W AHEAD             
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE...WOULD NOT BE                 
SURPRISED IF -SHRA ARE TIED CLOSELY TO ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH              
WILL NOT REACH WRN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CARRIED              
LOW POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.              
THU THRU SUN...ECMWF/GLOBAL CANADIAN AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT              
ON THE PATTERN THRU THIS TIME PERIOD. IN GENERAL...PATTERN WILL                 
FEATURE A TROF OVER WRN CANADA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. WITH            
TIME...RIDGE WILL TEND TO BUILD AND EXPAND WWD. OVERALL...THIS                  
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER HERE WITH NO                      
SIGNIFICANT PCPN. ON THU...GFS SHOWS A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS             
THE UPPER LAKES. AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...IT ALSO CARRIES A STREAK OF              
PCPN UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. ECMWF IS WEAKER                
WITH THE JET AND FARTHER SE. AT THIS POINT...WILL JUST MAINTAIN LOW             
POPS ACROSS THE SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA PER PREVIOUS FCST. MODELS HAVE              
TRENDED WEAKER/FARTHER N WITH SHORTWAVE THAT WAS TO AFFECT THE UPPER            
LAKES FRI AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. AS A                    
RESULT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR N TO GENERATE ANY -SHRA OVER               
THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH THAT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS WELL N...THE                   
GFS/ECMWF CUT OFF A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS FRI...A NEW                
FEATURE NOT SEEN IN YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. THAT LOW THEN DRIFTS ENE             
THRU BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW TRACKS            
IS UNCERTAIN. IT COULD HEAD NE AROUND BUILDING RIDGE TOWARD THE                 
UPPER LAKES OR DRIFT FARTHER S UNDERNEATH THE MORE SHARPLY RISING               
HEIGHTS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS SE CANADA. GFS ENSEMBLES DON`T PROVIDE A            
CLEAR ANSWER. AT THIS POINT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BUILDING                 
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SFC HIGH PRES ROUGHLY OVER NE                      
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC REGION. WITH AT LEAST A PARTIAL FEED OF               
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH...ODDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR DRY                  
WEATHER PREVAILING UNLESS SHORTWAVE OR MID LEVEL LOW ACTUALLY TRACKS            
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FCST FRI THRU            
SUN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD WITH                 
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EACH AFTN AWAY FROM COOLING NEAR THE                 
GREAT LAKES. SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHRINK.                          
FORTUNATELY...NO MAJOR PCPN EVENTS ARE FORESEEN TO RAISE RIVER                  
LEVELS MORE THAN JUST WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOWMELT. STILL...               
ALL RIVER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH BY THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CEIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                  
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THE CLEAR SKY...OTHER THAN EARLY...WILL             
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH MAINLY              
15Z TUESDAY.  IF THESE POTENTIAL CLOUDS COME TO FRUITION...THEY WILL            
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
HEADING OUR WAY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP WINDS AT OR              
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW 10KT FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO                   
TUESDAY.  THE LOW WAS OVER ALBERTA...STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH                    
WASHINGTON AND OREGON.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 25 KNOTS TODAY AS            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT                
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THRU MONDAY AS THE HIGH CROSSES. LOOK FOR               
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS               
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO LAKE ERIE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TUE EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE             
TWO SYSTEMS. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED AND DRAGS            
A FRONT ACROSS...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN                
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AREA BEHIND THE            
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
428 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE               
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TWO LOW CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED IN                  
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND THEY ARE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND              
EASTERN OHIO. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH            
IS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA PRODUCING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD              
OF IT. A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH                 
CENTRAL CANADA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE RIDGE IS OVER             
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE BROAD RIDGE              
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STRETCHING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                             
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO EASTERN                
MANITOBA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE             
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE              
AND ALOFT...QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA                   
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIRMASS ALSO SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LITTLE          
IF ANY CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WITH THE               
ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT                    
...THERE SHOULD BE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT             
WINDS AND SNOW COVER FROM RECENT STORM. PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH A               
MINIMUM OF 0.10 INCH OR LESS TO ENHANCE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD FALL             
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION. WENT AS LOW AS 11F ACROSS                 
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE              
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WITH RIDGE CROSSING             
THE AREA ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. LAKE BREEZES             
SHOULD THEN OCCUR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AWAY FROM LAKE                          
INFLUENCE...MIXING TOWARD 800MB UNDER DRY AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD                  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.                           
.LONG TERM... (MON NIGHT THRU SUN)                                              
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY               
MON EVENING WILL MOVE E...EXTENDING FROM THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
TO THE LWR GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH             
PRES RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES MON EVENING              
WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH WILL BE                
SHIFTING E OF THE AREA...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY SINCE THERE IS            
NO RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INITIALLY. AS A RESULT...DRY              
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRU WED MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS.               
WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH RAPIDLY INCREASING JUST ABOVE              
INVERSION...MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN                
TONIGHT. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMP FALL WILL BE OVER THE ERN FCST               
AREA AS SFC HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE IN THE VCNTY EARLY IN THE                   
EVENING. SO...MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST E AND SE (MID/UPPER 20S) AND            
WARMEST FAR W (LOW/MID 30S) WHERE INCREASING WINDS WILL ASSIST IN               
LIMITING TEMP FALL.                                                             
VERY DRY COLUMN AND FULL SUNSHINE TUE ARGUES FOR DEEP MIXING WHICH              
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR. SNOW COVER WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT            
MIXING/HEATING DUE TO LWR ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI.                  
CONSERVATIVELY MIXING TO ONLY 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX                
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. WOULD LIKE TO SEE LOW-LEVEL FLOW            
HAVE MORE OF WRLY COMPONENT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING TEMPS             
OVER 70F. SO...WILL KEEP THE HIGH END OF MAX TEMPS IN THE 65-70F                
RANGE (ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE) W AND CNTRL FCST AREA. SRLY FLOW/MARINE              
LAYER OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL WORK TO LIMIT MIXING DEPTH OVER THE                
E...SO WILL RANGE TEMPS FROM THE 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE                  
LWR/MID 50S TOWARD THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. SFC DWPTS COULD CRASH               
LWR THAN WHAT THIS FCST REFLECTS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT              
COULD MIX DOWN. IN ANYCASE...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP TO                 
LIMIT SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE OCCUR WITH THESE                
WARM TEMPS. WITH 30-40KT IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT WILL BE A BREEZY               
DAY. SHOULD SEE GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH IN MOST AREAS.                                
SINCE PRES GRADIENT DOES NOT EASE TUE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP             
AS WINDS FAIL TO DECOUPLE COMPLETELY. AS A RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT               
TEMPS TO FALL ANY LWR THAN THE LOW/MID 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN              
OF THE W AND NCNTRL AND IN THE AREAS THAT DOWNSLOPE NEAR LAKE                   
SUPERIOR UNDER SRLY WINDS. COOLEST READINGS (MID/UPPER 30S) WILL BE             
OVER THE SCNTRL AND E.                                                          
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WED. SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN            
MAY OCCUR BY THEN UNDER PERSISTENT S TO SW WINDS...SO TEMPS MAY NOT             
BE AS WARM AS TUE. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL                    
MOISTENING...BUT THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. IN FACT...THE PCPN IT                     
GENERATES DURING WED MORNING IN ITS OVERDONE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS             
UNREALISTIC. IF THE DRIER NAM IS CORRECT...MAX TEMPS WED COULD BE               
2-5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUE. FOR NOW...WENT WITH MAX TEMPS SIMILAR              
TO TUE.                                                                         
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON LOW POPS FOR -SHRA WED AFTN OVER THE W AHEAD             
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE...WOULD NOT BE                 
SURPRISED IF -SHRA ARE TIED CLOSELY TO ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH              
WILL NOT REACH WRN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CARRIED              
LOW POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.              
THU THRU SUN...ECMWF/GLOBAL CANADIAN AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT              
ON THE PATTERN THRU THIS TIME PERIOD. IN GENERAL...PATTERN WILL                 
FEATURE A TROF OVER WRN CANADA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. WITH            
TIME...RIDGE WILL TEND TO BUILD AND EXPAND WWD. OVERALL...THIS                  
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER HERE WITH NO                      
SIGNIFICANT PCPN. ON THU...GFS SHOWS A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS             
THE UPPER LAKES. AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...IT ALSO CARRIES A STREAK OF              
PCPN UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. ECMWF IS WEAKER                
WITH THE JET AND FARTHER SE. AT THIS POINT...WILL JUST MAINTAIN LOW             
POPS ACROSS THE SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA PER PREVIOUS FCST. MODELS HAVE              
TRENDED WEAKER/FARTHER N WITH SHORTWAVE THAT WAS TO AFFECT THE UPPER            
LAKES FRI AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. AS A                    
RESULT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR N TO GENERATE ANY -SHRA OVER               
THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH THAT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS WELL N...THE                   
GFS/ECMWF CUT OFF A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS FRI...A NEW                
FEATURE NOT SEEN IN YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. THAT LOW THEN DRIFTS ENE             
THRU BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW TRACKS            
IS UNCERTAIN. IT COULD HEAD NE AROUND BUILDING RIDGE TOWARD THE                 
UPPER LAKES OR DRIFT FARTHER S UNDERNEATH THE MORE SHARPLY RISING               
HEIGHTS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS SE CANADA. GFS ENSEMBLES DON`T PROVIDE A            
CLEAR ANSWER. AT THIS POINT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BUILDING                 
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SFC HIGH PRES ROUGHLY OVER NE                      
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC REGION. WITH AT LEAST A PARTIAL FEED OF               
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH...ODDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR DRY                  
WEATHER PREVAILING UNLESS SHORTWAVE OR MID LEVEL LOW ACTUALLY TRACKS            
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FCST FRI THRU            
SUN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD WITH                 
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EACH AFTN AWAY FROM COOLING NEAR THE                 
GREAT LAKES. SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHRINK.                          
FORTUNATELY...NO MAJOR PCPN EVENTS ARE FORESEEN TO RAISE RIVER                  
LEVELS MORE THAN JUST WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOWMELT. STILL...               
ALL RIVER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH BY THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH              
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER                   
NORTHWEST ONTARIO SINKS SOUTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. BUFKIT AND IR                
SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME SC CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                  
AFTERNOON. SAW OBS PICKING UP ON THIS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD                    
DISSIPATE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THIS WILL DRY AIR WILL PERSIST                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 25 KNOTS TODAY AS            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT                
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THRU MONDAY AS THE HIGH CROSSES. LOOK FOR               
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS               
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO LAKE ERIE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TUE EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE             
TWO SYSTEMS. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED AND DRAGS            
A FRONT ACROSS...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN                
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AREA BEHIND THE            
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
727 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT               
HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS NOTED ON                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE WAKE OF STORM...A SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 17.5            
INCHES WAS RECORDED AT THE MQT NWS WITH A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF              
13.6 INCHES ON THE 11TH. THE SNOW DEPTH OF 32 INCHES RECORDED                   
YESTERDAY WAS THE MOST EVER FOR THE DATE EXCEEDING THE 26 INCHES                
MEASURED IN 1972. ALSO...WE NOW HAVE THE THIRD SNOWIEST APRIL ON                
RECORD HERE AT THE MQT NWS.                                                     
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN            
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING SLOWLY THROUGH THE              
ERN GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE                  
ROCKIES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC PROGGED BY MODELS TO                 
ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE CONUS REACHING THE UPR GREAT LAKES WED               
NIGHT AND THU.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES TODAY BETWEEN THE               
ROCKIES RIDGE AND ERN CONUS TROF. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NW             
FLOW HAS PRODUCED AREA OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO AND NRN MN            
AND THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY                
WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE. BUT AGAIN SINCE THESE CLOUDS WILL BE              
FAIRLY TRANSPARENT THEY SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS.              
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -5C/-6C MIXING TO THE SFC...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS             
TO REACH THE LOW 40S FOR AREAS ALONG THE WI BDR AND LAKE MI. CLOSER             
TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ONSHORE NRLY WINDS 10-20 KT WILL KEEP READINGS IN            
THE MID-UPR 30S.                                                                
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE FROM THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES CENTERED OVER UPR MI BY MON. WITH HIGH PRES             
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER OVER THE FCST               
AREA TONIGHT THRU TUE. DRY AIRMASS ALSO SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE                  
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CI AT TIMES.                     
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT               
...THERE SHOULD BE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT             
WINDS AND SNOW COVER FROM RECENT STORM. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER MIN             
OF 0.10 INCH OR LESS TO ENHANCE COOLING...EXCEPT TEMPS TO FALL BLO              
MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION. WENT AS LOW AS 10F ACROSS TYPICAL               
COLD SPOTS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO             
SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.                                              
WITH SFC RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA MON...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD OCCUR                
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCE...MIXING TOWARD                  
800MB UNDER DRY AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F PER FCST                
SOUNDINGS. MINS MON NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S)              
AND WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING BEFORE SRLY GRADIENT WINDS                 
ENSUE ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE AND AHEAD OF ADVANCING PAC COAST TROF.               
DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE               
LOWER 30S. MUCH WARMER DAY EXPECTED TUE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.               
MIXING TO AROUND 850MB WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID               
60S OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. S TO SW WINDS OF AT            
LEAST 30KT AVBL IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY.                 
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF PCPN WED AS ALL MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH                  
ARRIVAL OF PAC COAST SHORTWAVE. THUS...ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC OF            
SHOWER OVER WEST HALF MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED CHC POPS               
ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH              
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER                   
NORTHWEST ONTARIO SINKS SOUTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 25 KNOTS TODAY AS            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT                
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THRU MONDAY AS THE HIGH CROSSES. LOOK FOR               
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS               
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO LAKE ERIE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TUE EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE             
TWO SYSTEMS. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED AND DRAGS            
A FRONT ACROSS...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN                
CONTINUE INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS BEHIND THE FRONT.               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
535 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT               
HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS NOTED ON                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE WAKE OF STORM...A SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 17.5            
INCHES WAS RECORDED AT THE MQT NWS WITH A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF              
13.6 INCHES ON THE 11TH. THE SNOW DEPTH OF 32 INCHES RECORDED                   
YESTERDAY WAS THE MOST EVER FOR THE DATE EXCEEDING THE 26 INCHES                
MEASURED IN 1972. ALSO...WE NOW HAVE THE THIRD SNOWIEST APRIL ON                
RECORD HERE AT THE MQT NWS.                                                     
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN            
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING SLOWLY THROUGH THE              
ERN GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE                  
ROCKIES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC PROGGED BY MODELS TO                 
ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE CONUS REACHING THE UPR GREAT LAKES WED               
NIGHT AND THU.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES TODAY BETWEEN THE               
ROCKIES RIDGE AND ERN CONUS TROF. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NW             
FLOW HAS PRODUCED AREA OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO AND NRN MN            
AND THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY                
WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE. BUT AGAIN SINCE THESE CLOUDS WILL BE              
FAIRLY TRANSPARENT THEY SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS.              
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -5C/-6C MIXING TO THE SFC...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS             
TO REACH THE LOW 40S FOR AREAS ALONG THE WI BDR AND LAKE MI. CLOSER             
TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ONSHORE NRLY WINDS 10-20 KT WILL KEEP READINGS IN            
THE MID-UPR 30S.                                                                
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE FROM THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES CENTERED OVER UPR MI BY MON. WITH HIGH PRES             
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER OVER THE FCST               
AREA TONIGHT THRU TUE. DRY AIRMASS ALSO SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE                  
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CI AT TIMES.                     
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT               
...THERE SHOULD BE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS GIVEN LIGHT             
WINDS AND SNOW COVER FROM RECENT STORM. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER MIN             
OF 0.10 INCH OR LESS TO ENHANCE COOLING...EXCEPT TEMPS TO FALL BLO              
MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION. WENT AS LOW AS 10F ACROSS TYPICAL               
COLD SPOTS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO             
SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.                                              
WITH SFC RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA MON...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD OCCUR                
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCE...MIXING TOWARD                  
800MB UNDER DRY AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F PER FCST                
SOUNDINGS. MINS MON NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL (MID-UPR 20S)              
AND WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING BEFORE SRLY GRADIENT WINDS                 
ENSUE ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE AND AHEAD OF ADVANCING PAC COAST TROF.               
DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE               
LOWER 30S. MUCH WARMER DAY EXPECTED TUE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.               
MIXING TO AROUND 850MB WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID               
60S OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. S TO SW WINDS OF AT            
LEAST 30KT AVBL IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY.                 
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF PCPN WED AS ALL MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH                  
ARRIVAL OF PAC COAST SHORTWAVE. THUS...ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC OF            
SHOWER OVER WEST HALF MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED CHC POPS               
ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH               
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER                   
NORTHWEST ONTARIO SINKS SOUTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 25 KNOTS TODAY AS            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT                
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THRU MONDAY AS THE HIGH CROSSES. LOOK FOR               
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS               
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO LAKE ERIE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TUE EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE             
TWO SYSTEMS. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED AND DRAGS            
A FRONT ACROSS...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN                
CONTINUE INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS BEHIND THE FRONT.               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
141 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE              
MICHIGAN EBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS OVER EASTERN CANADA               
AND THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF              
THIS TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS                  
DEPICTS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN LOW TO A            
DEEPER LOW OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE. A HIGH IS OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN                
ACCOMPANYING RIDGE DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL               
HIGH PLAINS. DRY AIR IS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER                            
MICHIGAN AS THE LOW TREKS EAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                             
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION                 
TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS. IT WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS IT SHIFTS INTO               
THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN ALSO AS             
IT SHIFT EAST TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. DRY AIR                
WILL CONTINUE SWEEP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS                
APPEAR TOO MOIST IN LOW-LEVELS... ESPECIALLY THE GFS...WHICH POORLY             
INITIALIZED VERY DRY LOW-LVLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AS NOTED ON             
00Z CWPL SNDG. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS            
THE FCST AREA. MIXING FROM NORTHERLY GRADIENT WIND SHOULD KEEP                  
TEMPERATURES FROM LOWERING TOO MUCH DESPITE FRESH SNOW COVER.                   
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVE RTHE NORTHERN PLAINS              
TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING                
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -5C SHOULD                    
ALLOW FOR INLAND READINGS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO REACH TO              
AROUND 40. UPSLOPE AREAS CLOSER TO THE SHORE WILL SEE READINGS IN               
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.                                                           
.LONG TERM... (SUN NIGHT THRU SAT)                                              
AN INITIALLY SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN                 
ROCKIES TO HUDSON BAY SUN NIGHT WILL DRIFT E...EXTENDING FROM THE               
LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO QUEBEC BY TUE EVENING. AT THE SFC...                  
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SUN NIGHT WILL MOVE             
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING AT THE SFC             
AND ALOFT...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER OVER THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT THRU              
TUE. IN ADDITION...DRY AIRMASS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY             
CLOUD COVER (PROBABLY ONLY SOME CI AT TIMES).                                   
WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER WRN UPPER MI SUN NIGHT...              
STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR A COLD NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM...              
ESPECIALLY WHERE DEEP SNOW COVER REMAINS. EVEN WHERE SNOW COVER                 
TODAY IS ONLY SEVERAL INCHES...ENOUGH SNOW COVER SHOULD STILL REMAIN            
SUN NIGHT TO AID COOLING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER MIN OF 0.10 TO                
0.20 INCHES (ROUGHLY 25-50PCT OF NORMAL) TO ENHANCE COOLING...WILL              
GO BLO MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COLD                 
SPOTS THAT HAVE DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS              
ABOVE ZERO.                                                                     
SW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY MON AND WILL BE LOCKED IN BY TUE.            
SO STEADY WARMING WILL OCCUR MON THRU TUE. WITH SFC RIDGE CROSSING              
THE AREA MON...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE RULE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.            
AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCE...MIXING UPWARDS OF 800MB UNDER DRY AIRMASS            
SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F PER FCST SOUNDINGS. MINS MON NIGHT              
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN SUN NIGHT AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO                  
NORMAL. MUCH WARMER DAY EXPECTED TUE UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.                  
MIXING TO AROUND 800MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH S TO             
SW WINDS OF AT LEAST 30KT AVBL IN THE MIXED LAYER...IT WILL BE A                
BREEZY DAY. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS TO AROUND 30MPH WITH THIS FCST                  
ISSUANCE...BUT COULD EASILY SEE HIGHER GUSTS.                                   
WED THRU SAT...00Z ECMWF/GLOBAL CANADIAN AND 06Z GFS ARE IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN THRU THIS TIME PERIOD...EVEN WITH TIMING OF            
SHORTWAVES. IN GENERAL...PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE AND               
FEATURE A TROF OVER WRN CANADA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS.                 
OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH PROBABLY NO                   
SIGNIFICANT PCPN. TWO SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU THE TROF WILL AFFECT             
THE FCST AREA DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST WILL BE               
WED AND THE SECOND FRI. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A THIRD SYSTEM JUST              
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. NOTHING MORE THAN CHC POPS FOR -SHRA ARE               
NEEDED AT THIS POINT WITH EACH SYSTEM. TROF OVER WRN CANADA AND                 
RIDGE TO THE E WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH 50S GENERALLY               
THE RULE EACH AFTN AWAY FROM COOLING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL            
VARY FROM DAY TO DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LWR 60S AS WELL. SNOWPACK            
WILL SHRINK SIGNIFICANTLY. FORTUNATELY...NO MAJOR PCPN EVENTS ARE               
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS MORE THAN JUST WHAT WILL            
OCCUR WITH THE SNOWMELT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH               
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER                   
NORTHWEST ONTARIO SINKS SOUTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO            
SO THROUGH TONIGHT...DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE               
LOW MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT HIGH WAVES ON SUPERIOR WILL ALSO             
WEAKEN. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO LESS THAN            
25 KNTOS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE RIDGE MOVE OUT THE REGION AND            
LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT                 
LAKES BRINGING WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOT BY LATE TUESDAY. RIGHT                   
NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...BUT             
THE PATTERN OF A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS                
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE                
OVER THE APPALACHIANS FAVORS A POSSIBLE GALE EVENT.                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
935 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER FOR EXPIRATION OF LAKE WIND              
ADVISORY. LARGE SURFACE HIGH NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS STILL             
PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWFA FOR A FEW               
GUSTS OVER THE DELTA AND CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS               
OVER REMAINDER OF AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS                  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER              
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER THE MID                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATER              
TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWFA            
CURRENTLY BUT REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WESTERN                 
TENNESSEE THAT MAY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES              
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS COVERED BY CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED               
CLOUD COVER FOR TRENDS BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FREEZE            
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS SOME NEAR RECORD LOWS AROUND              
FREEZING ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES. /22/                    
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...CLOUD DECKS BUILDING INTO THE               
AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF             
THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE SWD PROGRESSION OF THE                 
HEAVIER CLOUD COVER IS A BIT SLOWER THAT INDICATED BY THE MODELS AND            
MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS                  
SUGGESTS. WILL LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER                   
WCENTRAL AND SRN ZONES AND WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FEW SPRINKLES               
NRN ZONES AS THE NEXT WAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS            
THE ARKLAMISS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NWLY WIND WILL CONTINUE             
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. WILL ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO                
STAND THROUGH 7PM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT BEST.                  
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. WILL SEE THE                
COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OF THIS EPISODE AS THE LOW LEVEL                   
TEMPERATURE TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL                  
DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS MIXES BUT WILL HOLD            
OFF ON ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY. SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD              
IN TO OUR WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX A BIT              
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.                                                 
THE PRIMARY WEATHER QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL            
FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS             
TEMPS FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AFTER INCREASING MOS LOWS OVER             
ECENTRAL MS FROM THE UPPER 20S BACK NEAR 30 DEGREES. WILL SEE                   
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AT 925/850MB MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE            
TEMPERATURE TROUGH AS IT MOVES E OF THE BORDER BUT SHOULD SEE SKIN              
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY            
MORNING. CLOUD COVER PERSISTS MONDAY EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO                 
CLEAR FROM THE WEST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. ADDING TO THE QUESTION OF               
OVERNIGHT COOLING IS THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE EDGES NEAR OR              
JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER 12Z TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A LIGHT BUT                 
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ERN ZONES UNTIL LATE IN             
THE PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR COOLING                    
OCCURRING OVER WRN AREAS WITH THE GREATER CHANCE OF IMPAIRMENTS TO              
COOLING OCCURRING OVER WHAT SHOULD BE COOLER ERN ZONES. HAVE ISSUED             
A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FOR TUESDAY MORNING.              
/03/                                                                            
LONG TERM...FCST WILL BE QUIET IN THE EXTENDED. WE START OFF ON THE             
COOL SIDE TUE AND THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE WED WITH THE NEXT CHANCE               
FOR RAIN LOOKING LIKE FRI AND INTO FRI EVENING. OVERALL THE MDLS                
HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH SO I WILL NOT BE MAKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF                 
CHANGES.                                                                        
TUE WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MOST EVERYONE WAKING UP TO             
TEMPS JUST BELOW OR NEAR FREEZING BUT WITH SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING FULL            
SUN DURING THE DAY THERE SHOULD BE A NICE WARM UP. H85 TEMPS WILL BE            
AROUND 3-5C AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO                
UPPER 60S. AFTER TUE THE FCST REMAINS THE SAME AND WITH THAT I WILL             
APPEND THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST DISCUSSION. /CAB/             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E FOR WED AND RETURN FLOW WILL STEADILY                
INCREASE WED AND THU. MOISTURE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RETURN...THUS             
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND EACH DAY TO              
MORE SEASONAL READINGS. LATEST GUID TEMPS WERE REAL GOOD AND FIT                
PREV FORECAST VALUES.                                                           
FRI IS ABOUT THE TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE AND LATEST GUID SHOWS                
SOME VARIATION OF A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA. THE GFS/EURO HAVE                
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS                 
RATHER LOW. AT THIS TIME...WILL STICK WITH THE 00Z GFS GUID WHICH               
OFFERS A MIX OF 20-40% POPS FROM FRI INTO SAT. THE GFS IS NOT                   
ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT THE EURO/CANADIAN              
DO. LETS HOPE THE WETTER SOLUTIONS PAN OUT B/C BY THE END OF NEXT               
WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE REACHING THE 2ND FULL WEEK WITHOUT             
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. /CME/                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UPDATED...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR LIMITS FOR ALL BUT THE                 
NORTHEAST. CLOUD BASES IN THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW              
3000 FT TOWARD 10Z BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. A FEW                
SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST BUT VFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED              
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AREAWIDE. /22/                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       39  56  34  66 /  10   9   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      34  55  30  66 /  11  13   1   0                                  
VICKSBURG     40  57  35  68 /   9   6   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   37  59  33  67 /   6   4   4   0                                  
NATCHEZ       38  59  33  67 /   6   2   4   0                                  
GREENVILLE    38  55  33  66 /  14   5   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     38  53  33  64 /  17   7   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR            
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.                                                
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/CAB                                                                          
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1139 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRES                  
WILL DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATER MON INTO TUE...THEN               
LIFT NE ON WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W THU AND                      
FRI...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SAT. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH FROM THE W                
SUN.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AREA OF -SHRA MOVING ASSCTD WITH UPR SHRT WV MOVING INTO ERN NC FROM            
W THIS EVE AND UPDATED WX AND SKY CONDITION TO INCLUDE THIS. 18Z                
NAM12 AND LATEST RUC13 PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND HOLD IT                   
TOGETHER OVER CWA OVERNIGHT...THUS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UP POPS TO              
60% OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL BUT NO                  
CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
UPR TRF WILL SHARPEN AND CUTOFF NEAR THE COAST MON INTO TUE. THIS               
WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. WENT WITH CHC POPS MON                
AFTN AND EVENING AS UPR TRF CROSSES AND MDLS SHOW BEST                          
MOISTURE/QPF. BY EARLY TUE HAVE SMALL POP CST THEN EXPECT                       
MOISTURE TO SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW                
NORMAL WITH THE DEEP TRF ALONG THE CST. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN                 
THE 50S MON AND TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S. GUSTY              
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE SFC                 
LOW DEVELOPS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
DEEP UPR TRF ALONG THE CST TUE NIGHT WILL GRAD SLIDE NE WITH                    
BUILDING HGTS LATE IN THE WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE DOMINANT                  
FEATURE WED INTO FRI WITH MSUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. WITH WINDS            
DECREASING TUE NIGHT COULD HAVE SOME FROST DEVELOP WITH LOW TEMPS               
IN THE MID 30S INLAND. SHLD BE IN THE 60S WED WITH AROUND 80                    
EXPECTED INLAND BY FRI. HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.              
MDLS DIFFERING A BIT ON POSS OF ANOTHER CUTOFF SYSTEM CROSSING                  
SUN...FOR NOW WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT POP SUN BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY                
HAVE TO INCREASE IF GFS TRACK OF SFC/UPR LOW IS CORRECT.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING TROUGH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN             
STATES HAS INITIATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SE VA. THESE                 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS ERN NC THROUGH ABOUT 08Z BUT             
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR              
OVERNIGHT. A SERIES OF SFC BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE                
REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THE FIRST BOUNDARY JUST ABOUT TO            
PUSH OFFSHORE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW-NLY ACROSS MOST OF THE                 
REGION. A SECOND BOUNDARY WILL SAG S ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW                 
AFTERNOON BRINGING NELY WINDS ACROSS RTES AND...WITH THE AXIS OF THE            
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGING STEEP LAPSE RATES                  
ALOFT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS RTES.                
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW                
EVENING AS WELL BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER                 
SHOWERS DEVELOP.                                                                
OUTLOOK...OVERCAST/BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS A             
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR                     
CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS TUE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE            
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS CURRENTLY ARE N/NW NORTH OF HATTERAS               
AND W/SW HATTERAS SOUTHWARD...WINDS WILL BE VEERING AND SHOULD ALL              
BE N/NW BY 06Z. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT FROM HATTERAS SOUTHWARD                      
A FEW HOURS AGO AS WINDS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GOOD                 
CAA...AND WITH DIAMOND REACHING 9 FT. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY             
OVER THE PAST HOUR BUT HAVE SMALL CRAFT GOING UNTIL 09Z.                        
MAIN STORY AFTER THIS BRIEF SURGE WILL BE THE LOW OFF OF THE COAST              
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING STRONG SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLE               
GALES. LONG N/NE FETCH WITH COASTAL LOW THIS WEEK WILL GENERATE SOME            
HIGHER SWELLS/SURF CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG E FACING BEACHES. LOW                
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD            
BACK INTO THE REGION.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
150 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AERA BY DAYBEREAK.               
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW             
TONIGHT AND PASS OVERHEAD ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE              
AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TUE AND WED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...                                                        
THE EARLIER UPDATE CLEARED OUT POPS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN                
CWA... AND THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY. THE LATEST SURFACE            
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST BUT THE               
PRIMARY COLD FRONT... DELINEATED BY A DROP IN DEW POINTS FROM THE               
50S INTO THE 20S/30S... IS STILL JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE             
UPPER JET CORE ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW AND             
MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE BRISK FROM THE SW... AND THIS SHOULD             
KEEP AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER THE CWA                    
OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT. HAVE                   
UPDATED THE SKY COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT LONGER-LIVED              
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE STEERING FLOW             
STILL ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT... THE MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD BE            
HELD BACK WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY                    
MORNING. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S... NEAR OR                   
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. -GIH                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...                                                        
SERIES OF S/WS WILL DIG AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SE                   
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY. LEADING S/W PROGGED TO CROSS                 
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUN               
MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS              
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN GEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY FALL             
IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. COULD SEE               
AN ISOLATED SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BUT                        
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.                             
CHILLY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MIXING AND                   
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL PREVENT AIR MASS NEAR SURFACE TO REALIZE FULL               
COOLING POTENTIAL. LOWS 37-42.                                                  
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...CORE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS FORECAST               
AREA MON/MON EVENING. RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT FAIRLY THICK MOIST               
LAYER (APPROX. 10K FT THICK). HEATING ALONG WITH 1000-700MB LAPSE               
RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS.                    
FREEZING LEVELS 3000-4000FT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR                   
GRAUPEL WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. OVERCAST SKIES...SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WELL BELOW                   
NORMAL. CURRENTLY FORECASTING MAX TEMPS MON IN THE 50-55 DEGREES                
RANGE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER              
40S IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.                                                   
SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MON NIGHT AS STRING CYCLONIC FLOW                   
WILL PERSIST OVER REGION. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND STEADY NLY FLOW             
NEAR SURFACE WILL HELP TO PREVENT TEMP FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER             
30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S...MIXING SHOULD                     
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FROST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
AS OF 405 PM SATURDAY...                                                        
EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN              
OVER THE WESTERN U.S WILL CONVERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL              
KEEP MAIN STORM TRACK WELL W-NW OF REGION. MEANWHILE CLOSED UPPER               
LEVEL LOW OFF THE NC COAST WILL TRACK SLOWLY NE TUESDAY-THU. THE                
COMBINATION OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND                  
THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL INDUCE RIDGING OVER               
THE SE U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER WITH                          
MODERATING TEMPS. A BLEND OF MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT                
TEMPS ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES WARMER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FRI.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...                                                          
A COLD FRONT OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT EAST OF             
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK.  DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE ON WESTERLY WINDS                    
MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH TODAY AND INTO               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE OHIO TO TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL DRIFT SE            
THROUGH MON.  THIS WILL BE REFLECTED BY A TROUGH OR SECONDARY COLD              
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE DURING MON ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE            
IN MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS               
CAUSED BY VERY COLD AIR ALOFT.  STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES 3-5 THSD FT            
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY                   
LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK MON.  CLOUDS WILL BECOME                  
VERTICALLY ENHANCED MON WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CIGS EXPECTED              
ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN                
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN ARRIVE MON NIGHT ON NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS                
PUSHED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS AREA OF HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO A POSITION ALONG THE EAST COAST              
WED THROUGH FRI.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC              
FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH THU.  -RFG                                          
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RFG                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
SHORT TERM...WSS                                                                
LONG TERM...WSS                                                                 
AVIATION...RFG                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
811 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND                      
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE              
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
QUICK UPDATE FOR A SPRINKLE/FLURRY RATHER THAN MEASURABLE PRECIP                
OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
RUC SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA WHILE                
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL WV.  NORTHERN EDGE            
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE LATTER AND CONTINUES TO               
WORK SLOWLY S.  PRECIPITATION WAS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AS A                 
RESULT EVEN S OF THE FRONT.                                                     
THE FRONT...AND NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...SHOULD MAKE IT             
INTO SOUTHERN WV THIS MORNING.  SHARP DECREASE IN LOW-MOD LEVEL                 
MOISTURE FOLLOWS SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THIS...MOVING SE THROUGH                  
FORECAST AREA TODAY.  KEYING IN ON THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT FOR THE               
MOST APPRECIABLE CLEARING THROUGH THIS MORNING.                                 
SWD PROGRESS WILL BE SORT OF INTERRUPTED BY DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH               
WILL TEND TO REINVIGORATE SCT SHOWERS TO A DEGREE FAR S PORTION OF              
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS S ONLY INVITE            
MORE CU TO BILLOW UP IN A DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH HIGH BASES.  CU                 
WILL ALSO FORM N INCREASING OVERALL CLOUD COVER AGAIN BUT NOT AS                
MUCH AS FARTHER S...AND THE CU N WILL BE FLATTER WITH HIGH BASES AS             
WELL AND AND INCAPABLE OF PRECIPITATING.                                        
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE MON...ASSOCIATED                
WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE GRADIENT...THIS ONE CONFINED TO THE LOW                   
LEVELS.  THIS MAY SOMEWHAT DELAY DISSIPATION OF THE CU WITH SUNSET              
BUT WE WILL LOSE THE CLOUDS ALTOGETHER N TO S ON THIS FINAL PUSH OF             
DRY AIR.  FOG MAY FORM IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN BUT A BIT OF A N              
PUFF WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED DRY ADVECTION SHOULD                    
PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.                                                             
ROLLED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.  BOTH               
WERE ON TRACK INITIALLY AND THEY ONLY DIVERGE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES            
THEREAFTER...THE MAV BEING THE HIGHER OF THE TWO.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                 
A TRANSITION INTO A WARMER REGIME WITH LONG ANTICIPATED HIGH                    
PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE CWA WILL COMMENCE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS            
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH IS                   
ASSISTING STUBBORN 850HPA TEMPERATURES IN KEEPING SURFACE                       
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE IS SCARCE AT ALL LEVELS AT THIS             
POINT...SO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A              
GOOD REBOUND EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY LOCATION PUSHING               
70F. THIS HIGH PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A 500HPA RIDGE AXIS                      
STRETCHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO                 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC KEEPS THE REST OF THE WEEK LARGELY CLOUD            
FREE AND NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GO                
MODEST WITH MAX T VALUES...MOST LIKELY DUE TO 850HPA TEMPERATURES               
THAT ARE SLOW TO WARM. WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL               
COOLING...A HEALTHY DIURNAL RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING INTO THE                
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM AFTER FRIDAY                
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE SIGNALING            
THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY. THE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BECOME            
PART OF THE WARM SECTOR IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A WARM FRONT WILL              
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT NOT DIRECTLY                  
PASSING THROUGH. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND DELAY            
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL UNTIL SATURDAY...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE                 
AFTER THIS POINT WITH THE GFS TAKING THE LOW ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY            
TRACK...AND THE ECMWF TAKING IT DUE EAST INTO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...                                                  
IFR MOUNTAINS...MVFR LOWLANDS...SLOWLY IMPROVING BY 16Z TO MVFR                 
MOUNTAINS AND VFR LOWLANDS. BY 19Z VFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE. BECOMING             
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z LOWLANDS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BY 04Z                
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.                                                             
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z TUE/...NO SIG WX XPCTD.                             
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ037-038-046-             
     047.                                                                       
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-             
     076-083>085.                                                               
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...26/TRM                                                               
NEAR TERM...JMV                                                                 
SHORT TERM...26                                                                 
LONG TERM...26                                                                  
AVIATION...JMV                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
255 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY MOVES EAST                            
TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY.  ONCE                     
HERE...THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK...UNTIL THE NEXT                  
SYSTEM APPROACHES.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
RUC SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA WHILE                
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL WV.  NORTHERN EDGE            
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE LATTER AND CONTINUES TO               
WORK SLOWLY S.  PRECIPITATION WAS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AS A                 
RESULT EVEN S OF THE FRONT.                                                     
THE FRONT...AND NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...SHOULD MAKE IT             
INTO SOUTHERN WV THIS MORNING.  SHARP DECREASE IN LOW-MOD LEVEL                 
MOISTURE FOLLOWS SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THIS...MOVING SE THROUGH                  
FORECAST AREA TODAY.  KEYING IN ON THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT FOR THE               
MOST APPRECIABLE CLEARING THROUGH THIS MORNING.                                 
SWD PROGRESS WILL BE SORT OF INTERRUPTED BY DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH               
WILL TEND TO REINVIGORATE SCT SHOWERS TO A DEGREE FAR S PORTION OF              
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS S ONLY INVITE            
MORE CU TO BILLOW UP IN A DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH HIGH BASES.  CU                 
WILL ALSO FORM N INCREASING OVERALL CLOUD COVER AGAIN BUT NOT AS                
MUCH AS FARTHER S...AND THE CU N WILL BE FLATTER WITH HIGH BASES AS             
WELL AND AND INCAPABLE OF PRECIPITATING.                                        
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE MON...ASSOCIATED                
WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE GRADIENT...THIS ONE CONFINED TO THE LOW                   
LEVELS.  THIS MAY SOMEWHAT DELAY DISSIPATION OF THE CU WITH SUNSET              
BUT WE WILL LOSE THE CLOUDS ALTOGETHER N TO S ON THIS FINAL PUSH OF             
DRY AIR.  FOG MAY FORM IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN BUT A BIT OF A N              
PUFF WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED DRY ADVECTION SHOULD                    
PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.                                                             
ROLLED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.  BOTH               
WERE ON TRACK INITIALLY AND THEY ONLY DIVERGE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES            
THEREAFTER...THE MAV BEING THE HIGHER OF THE TWO.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                 
A TRANSITION INTO A WARMER REGIME WITH LONG ANTICIPATED HIGH                    
PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE CWA WILL COMMENCE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS            
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH IS                   
ASSISTING STUBBORN 850HPA TEMPERATURES IN KEEPING SURFACE                       
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE IS SCARCE AT ALL LEVELS AT THIS             
POINT...SO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A              
GOOD REBOUND EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY LOCATION PUSHING               
70F. THIS HIGH PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A 500HPA RIDGE AXIS                      
STRETCHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO                 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC KEEPS THE REST OF THE WEEK LARGELY CLOUD            
FREE AND NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GO                
MODEST WITH MAX T VALUES...MOST LIKELY DUE TO 850HPA TEMPERATURES               
THAT ARE SLOW TO WARM. WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL               
COOLING...A HEALTHY DIURNAL RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING INTO THE                
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM AFTER FRIDAY                
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE SIGNALING            
THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY. THE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BECOME            
PART OF THE WARM SECTOR IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A WARM FRONT WILL              
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT NOT DIRECTLY                  
PASSING THROUGH. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND DELAY            
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL UNTIL SATURDAY...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE                 
AFTER THIS POINT WITH THE GFS TAKING THE LOW ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY            
TRACK...AND THE ECMWF TAKING IT DUE EAST INTO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD...MOIST NW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN            
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS AND              
MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.  PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME                            
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH WET SNOW            
FOR THE LOWLANDS.                                                               
THE EXCEPTION IS ON PKB...WHERE A SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVING FROM THE            
N HAS ALREADY PUSHED DRIER AIR IN...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THAT            
WILL PROBABLY PREVAIL THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.  AS IT CLEARS                   
ALTOGETHER THERE TOWARD DAWN...MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE.                           
THE TREND WILL WORK SE DURING THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO             
THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS MON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES E OF THE            
AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES S...TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW             
MORE NORTHERLY.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE N FLOW USHERS IN                
DRIER AIR.                                                                      
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING AT PKB WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SEWD THRU              
MON MORNING...BUT AFTERNOON CU ARE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE.  THE CU              
BASES SHOULD MIX UP TO 4KFT OR BETTER FOR THE AFTERNOON AREA WIDE.              
IT WILL BE DEEPEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD S...AND A BIT FLATTER AND                
MORE SCT N.                                                                     
AFTER THE DIURNAL INTERRUPTION...CLEARING WILL RESUME N TO S MON                
EVE...WITH ALL SITES CLEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                            
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 06Z TUE/...NO SIG WX XPCTD.                             
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ037-038-046-             
     047.                                                                       
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-             
     076-083>085.                                                               
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TRM/26                                                               
NEAR TERM...TRM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...26                                                                 
LONG TERM...26                                                                  
AVIATION...TRM                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
1001 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
TROUGH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE                       
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER                
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO               
VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER                
THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. VERY LIGHT                   
PRECIP STILL HANGING ON FROM MARION TO CANTON BUT IT IS QUICKLY                 
MOVING SOUTHWARD AND AM EXPECTING IT TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS                    
OVERNIGHT. WHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAS YET               
TO SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...THIS SHOULD ONLY YIELD SOME                
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                    
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND WILL INFLUENCE THE               
AREA`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE                   
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS CROSSING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY                 
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLOW WARMUP. TEMPERATURES                    
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD CLIMB               
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID              
50S. THEN ABOVE NORMAL CLIMBING INTO HE LOW TO MID 60S FOR                      
WEDNESDAY. LAKE BREEZE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE                 
LAKESHORE AREA COOLER.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH PREVENTS            
QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO PUSH RAPIDLY THRU THE AREA. BY LATE             
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE            
WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY THRU                     
SATURDAY. DRYING CONDS WILL START TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY. SOME                    
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.                             
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY                
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...THEN THEY             
FALL BACK JUST A LITTLE SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.            
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED            
THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CEILINGS ARE LIFTING THE                         
PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUING TO DECREASE. SOME LIGHT AREAS OF                    
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND AFFECT THE FORECAST               
AREA THROUGH 03Z. THE NAM AND GFS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS TRIES TO                 
INDICATE SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT               
AND LASTING INTO MID MORNING. THE RUC DOESN`T SHOW THIS AND THE                 
SREF HINTS AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 12Z MAINLY IN NORTH                     
CENTRAL OHIO...MFD TAF. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE              
AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 11C...10C IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE               
EFFECT CLOUDS. FOR MOST PLACES HINTED AT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS                  
DEVELOPING AROUND 2000 FEET BEFORE 10Z...EXCEPT WENT BROKEN IN THE              
MFD AREA. BY 17Z JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS.                                         
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY EVE THROUGH                       
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AN               
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE              
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH A THREAT OF NON VFR CONDITIONS.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TROUGH NOW SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD RESULTING             
IN A NE FLOW. THE NE FLOW AT 10 TO 20 KTS WILL RESULT IN SOME                   
PRETTY  GOOD WAVE ACTION. SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR                      
LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH                   
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT                
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS              
ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND BRING A                  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL                                                               
NEAR TERM...LEINS/RANDEL                                                        
SHORT TERM...RANDEL                                                             
LONG TERM...BC                                                                  
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
MARINE...BC                                                                     
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1042 AM CDT MON APR 14 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WARMER IS THE OPERATIVE WORD TODAY ACRS THE AREA AS WE BATTLE THE               
REMAINING SNOWCOVER FROM PORTIONS OF S CNTRL SD INTO SWRN MN...                 
WITH GREATEST CONCERNS EVOLVING IN THE FIRE DANGER REALM FOR THE                
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAPID PRESSURE FALLS THRU HIGH PLAINS WL ACT TO            
INTENSIFY LOW LVL GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY...NIGHT...AND INTO THE               
DAY ON TUESDAY.  EXPECT WNDS TO REMAIN BLO ADVY LVLS THRU FIRST PART            
OF TONIGHT...AS THERE IS SOME TENDENCY FOR NEGATIVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER           
WITH MIXING THRU TDA AS ADIABATIC LYR BUILDS INTO LOWER MOMENTUM AIR            
ALFT. COULD BECOME A DIFFERENT STORY BY LATER NIGHT THRU HIGHER                 
ELEVATION SITES OF ERN SD/SW MN...WITH 50-60KTS OF WIND 1-1.5 KFT AGL.          
MAY BE TYPICALLY OVERDONE WINDS WITHIN UPPER INVERSION...BUT MARGIN             
OF ERROR TO GET WIND ADVY THERE.  TOMORROW SEEMS PRETTY MUCH A NO               
DOUBTER ON WIND ADVISORY...AND CAN EXPECT TO ISSUE WITH AFTN PACKAGE.           
OTHERWISE FOR TDA...CURRENT INDICATIONS BASED ON MORINING                       
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS 12Z NAM/RUC INDICATE TMPS ON FULL MIXING WL              
COME UP A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF EXPECTED HIGHS. ALSO...WITH DECENT               
SNOWFIELD REMAINING ALG NRN BUFFALO RIDGE...WL LOCALLY UNDERCUT TMPS            
WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF THE SNOWFIELD.  DWPTS A REAL             
CHALLENGE AS WELL...WITH NUMBERS REFLECTING INVERSION AND TRAPPED               
MOISTENING THRU MID MORNING...BUT OAX/LBF RAOBS LOOKING MORE IN THE             
20S REALM FOR AFTN ONCE GET SOME LIMITED MIXING...PERHAPS UPPER                 
TEENS IN FAR E HIER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE FIRE WX               
INDICES MAY BE A BIT OVERZEALOUS CONSIDERING THE RECOVERY TIME FROM             
RECENT PCPN AND AREAS OF REMAINING SNOWCOVER... BUT WITH DRY AIR THE            
1HR FUELS SHOULD REACT FAIRLY QUICKLY. MAINTAINED AREAS OF VERY HIGH            
FIRE DANGER...WITH CAVEAT OF BEING THOSE AREAS AWAY FROM SNOWCOVER.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG SLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP              
FOR KFSD AND KHON AREAS THRU AFTN. WITH INCREASED GRADIENT...WNDS               
SHUD STAY MIXED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT SHELTERED LOCATIONS WOULD                
BE SUSCEPTABLE TO LLWS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ARND 1KFT...WITH                  
KSUX AREA TO BE WATCHED.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY               
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE            
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE EAST DUE TO             
THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MODELS NOT                
HANDLING THIS MOISTURE ALL THAT WELL...BUT THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW             
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER               
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA REALLY TIGHTENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AM                  
EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT.            
SPEAKING OF MIXING...WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS               
DOWN...AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE VALUES WITH GULF CUT OFF AND                  
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME FIRE                
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND                      
RELATIVELY DRY AIR.  WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S...WILL                
KEEP HIGH AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE RANGE LAND STATEMENT.                
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS                     
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE EVEN FURTHER.  WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKS            
TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD BET...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80                  
DEGREES IN WESTERN CWA FIRE DANGER LOOKS TO BE EXTREME.  WITH THE               
GULF OPEN...WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH              
TO KEEP WESTERN CWA ABOVE THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED RED FLAG CONDITIONS             
OF 20 PERCENT RH.                                                               
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                 
WEDNESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF             
THE FRONT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE. SOME                   
QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS TO WHETHER ANY POTENTIAL                     
CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. ANY                 
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE CONTAINED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND ELEVATED                 
INVERSION LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WOULD SUPPRESS ANY TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT.            
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL EAST OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND            
ACT AS A WARM FRONT FOR FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING                   
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVES SLIDE                     
NORTHEAST...MAY BE ABLE TO GET SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE               
VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. CLOUDS SHOULD DO THEIR PART            
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON THURSDAY...AND WITH COLLABORATIVE                  
EFFORT WITH DMX...LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS                   
EASTERN CWA.   BT                                                               
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1008 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO PLANS TO CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST TODAY. DID REFRESH                  
HOURLY GRIDS AND RE-RUN THE APPARENT TEMP AND RH GRIDS. RELATIVE                
HUMIDITIES UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL DROP               
DOWN TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CORSON AND CAMPBELL              
COUNTIES. TOMORROW /AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY/ STILL LOOK MORE LIKE                  
CRITICAL FIRE CONCERN DAYS WITH IT STILL BEING QUITE DRY AND BROWN              
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PLUS FACTOR IN THE SOUTH WINDS               
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH /SUSTAINED/ WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY MONDAY              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS              
THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN                    
UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE                   
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT WILL BRING IN                 
MUCH WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES. WILL               
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON INCREASING FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY AND                    
TUESDAY AS VERY DRY AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS              
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...AND GUSTY. DAY SHIFT MAY                 
EVEN WANT TO CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE                  
AREA FOR MONDAY. MORE SPECIFICALLY...NORTH CENTRAL SD AS CURRENT                
RH FORECAST HAS VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.                
THIS MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO HIGH AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE                   
LIKELY TO MIX DOWN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO...FUEL STATUS PAGE                  
INDICATES FAVORABLE FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD AND THE              
EASTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH THE EAST WILL BE HARDER TO REACH RH                      
CRITERIA. OUR FAR SOUTHWEST FIRE WX ZONES SHOW NO FAVORABLE FIRE                
GROWTH ACCORDING TO FUEL STATUS PAGE. AGAIN...WILL LET DAY SHIFT                
TAKE A LITTLE CLOSER LOOK AS IT IS STILL A FEW PERIODS OUT AND                  
INCREASED DANGER WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN RFD AND HWO. WILL ALSO                  
HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND NEW RH CRITERIA OF 20 PERCENT FOR JAMES RIVER              
FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST.                                                      
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CURRENT FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK AND               
MADE LITTLE CHANGE. DID BUMP UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY                 
AND GENERALLY LEFT HIGHS ALONE ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE                  
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS IMPRESSIVE THERMAL RIDGE OF 850 MB                   
TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS AND CLOSE TO 20 MOVE ACROSS THE AREA                  
DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOULD EASILY SEE 70S FROM THE JAMES VALLEY                
AND POINTS WEST.                                                                
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE PLAINS               
AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MONTANA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.              
THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...REACHING THE WESTERN                 
PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH THEN SPLITS WITH THE                 
NORTHERN PORTION CONTINUING A STEADY EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE                  
GREAT LAKES...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION BECOMING CLOSED OFF OVER                 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW REMAINS CLOSED ON FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS               
NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI...THEN TO JUST                 
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.                                           
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS              
TUESDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST.                 
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO LEFT              
DRY CONDITIONS GOING FOR THE TIME BEING. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO                  
PUSH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. LOW                     
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY                         
NIGHT...THEN TRACKS TO EASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHEASTERN                              
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY CARRYING SOME              
LOW POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WRAPPING                
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP                  
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO                
THE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN TO                
GO FARTHER SOUTH. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS                 
IOWA ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES              
ON SATURDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAA                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE CWA.                                   
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE                
PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SHOULD                   
BEGIN TO SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD              
AS THE STRONG WAA DEVELOPS...AND IS HINTED AT BY FORECAST GFS H85               
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT              
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DORN                                                                   
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...DORN                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
319 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS              
THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN                    
UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE                   
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT WILL BRING IN                 
MUCH WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES. WILL               
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON INCREASING FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY AND                    
TUESDAY AS VERY DRY AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS              
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...AND GUSTY. DAY SHIFT MAY                 
EVEN WANT TO CONSIDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE                  
AREA FOR MONDAY. MORE SPECIFICALLY...NORTH CENTRAL SD AS CURRENT                
RH FORECAST HAS VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.                
THIS MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO HIGH AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE                   
LIKELY TO MIX DOWN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO...FUEL STATUS PAGE                  
INDICATES FAVORABLE FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD AND THE              
EASTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH THE EAST WILL BE HARDER TO REACH RH                      
CRITERIA. OUR FAR SOUTHWEST FIRE WX ZONES SHOW NO FAVORABLE FIRE                
GROWTH ACCORDING TO FUEL STATUS PAGE. AGAIN...WILL LET DAY SHIFT                
TAKE A LITTLE CLOSER LOOK AS IT IS STILL A FEW PERIODS OUT AND                  
INCREASED DANGER WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN RFD AND HWO. WILL ALSO                  
HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND NEW RH CRITERIA OF 20 PERCENT FOR JAMES RIVER              
FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST.                                                      
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CURRENT FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK AND               
MADE LITTLE CHANGES. DID BUMP UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY                
AND GENERALLY LEFT HIGHS ALONE ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE                  
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS IMPRESSIVE THERMAL RIDGE OF 850 MB                   
TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS AND CLOSE TO 20 MOVE ACROSS THE AREA                  
DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOULD EASILY SEE 70S FROM THE JAMES VALLEY                
AND POINTS WEST.                                                                
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE PLAINS               
AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MONTANA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.              
THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...REACHING THE WESTERN                 
PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH THEN SPLITS WITH THE                 
NORTHERN PORTION CONTINUING A STEADY EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE                  
GREAT LAKES...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION BECOMING CLOSED OFF OVER                 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW REMAINS CLOSED ON FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS               
NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI...THEN TO JUST                 
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.                                           
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS              
TUESDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST.                 
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO LEFT              
DRY CONDITIONS GOING FOR THE TIME BEING. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO                  
PUSH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. LOW                     
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY                         
NIGHT...THEN TRACKS TO EASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHEASTERN                              
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY CARRYING SOME              
LOW POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WRAPPING                
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP                  
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO                
THE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN TO                
GO FARTHER SOUTH. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS                 
IOWA ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES              
ON SATURDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAA                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE CWA.                                   
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE                
PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SHOULD                   
BEGIN TO SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD              
AS THE STRONG WAA DEVELOPS...AND IS HINTED AT BY FORECAST GFS H85               
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 4SM MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z               
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING KATY.                             
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY                   
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
414 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                              
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH`S TODAY AND            
ITS AFFECTS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN US               
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD CAUSING FLOW ALOFT TO INCREASE              
AS 110+ KT UPPER JET BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WRN CO BY 00Z.  LEE TROF               
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT             
20 TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A                
PRETTY RESPECTABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH H7 WINDS INCREASING             
TO 20-35 KTS...AND H6 WINDS INCREASING TO 30-50 IN THE LATE                     
AFTERNOON.  YESTERDAY`S LAPSE SOUNDINGS MIXED UP TO AROUND 550                  
MB...AND WITH DEEP MIXING ONCE AGAIN TODAY...COULD SEE GUSTS TO                 
AROUND 40 KTS OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  AREAS ALONG THE                   
EASTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WILL MIX OUT QUICKEST...WITH            
WINDS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO INCREASE IN THE SFC TROF AXIS.                  
HOWEVER RUC13 SUGGESTS ALL AREAS SHOULD BE GUSTING BY 18Z...AND ITS             
TRACK RECORD HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD OF LATE.  H7 TEMPS WARM A COUPLE              
DEGREES OVER THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND WITH LOWER 80S HIT YESTERDAY              
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS...MID TO EVEN UPPER 80S LOOK                   
DOABLE.  SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND                  
LOWER TEENS (IN FACT...AS OF 3 AM...LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS          
ALREADY HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH              
RHS AROUND 15-20%) SO IT SHOULD TAKE LONG THIS MORNING BEFORE RHS               
DROP BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 15%.  COMBINE THESE FACTORS                
WITH THE DRY FUELS...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY              
WILD FIRE STARTS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE            
COLORADO BELOW 8000 FEET.  DAY SHIFT ALREADY HOISTED THE RED FLAG               
WARNING...AND THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.                                       
FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL START SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL MTS            
AFTER 06Z AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE                
STATE.  LEADING 110 KT UPPER JET TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MT           
TOP WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS IN BOTH THE GFS/NAM.  MODEL               
SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR A MTN WAVE HIGH WIND            
EVENT...BUT COULD SEE SOME BRUTE FORCE WINDS/GAP FLOWS DEVELOP AFTER            
06Z AS MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES ACROSS.  FOR NOW APPEARS THAT              
WIND GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA...BUT REGARDLESS...MTN TOP        
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY STRONG (GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH                       
POSSIBLE).  COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AREA AFTER               
09Z WITH NAM SUGGESTING SOME MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST              
OF THE PALMER DVD BY EARLY MORNING. -KT                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WED-MON)                                                                       
...MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...                     
...SNOW WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET WED NITE/THU MORNING...           
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL                
AFFECT THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TIME PD. THIS SHORT WAVE              
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WED WITH A GOOD                 
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE PARCHED PLAINS.                                        
AS DISCUSSED YDAY ATTM...WE WILL SEE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES ON WED.               
THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE US-50 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z                   
TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL REACH DOWN TO THE RATON MESA BY 18Z...THE             
2ND AND MUCH STRONGER FRONT SHOULD REACH THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MID               
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE PUB-SPD AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY...AND ACROSS              
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. STRONG NNE WINDS WILL FOLLOW                 
BEHIND THIS 2ND FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                
TEMPERATURES TODAY (TUES)...WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO                
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE REPLACED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE             
MID 40S (N EL PASO COUNTY) TO UPPER 60S (CO/NM BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY.            
ATTM...I AM QUITE CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE              
PIKES PEAK REGION ON WED...BUT AREAS ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER (RATON              
MESA REGION) WILL BE QUITE TRICKY. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THINGS                 
WARMER THAN THE NAM...BUT GIVEN THE NATIONAL DISCUSSIONS AND                    
SURROUNDING CONSENSUS...BELEIEVE WE WILL SEE COOLER WX ON WED.                  
AS FOR PRECIP...I CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE EARLY PART OF                     
WED...BUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL                 
RAPIDLY INCREASE GENERALLY ACROSS THE N1/3RD OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE              
STRONG CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL              
SEE A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER...AND HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE GRIDDED            
DATABASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS THUNDER WILL BE DURING THE 21Z-03Z            
TIME FRAME.                                                                     
AS FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...IT WILL START OUT AS               
RAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE               
OVER TO SNOW BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE COULD SEE 1-3"            
OF SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY               
LATE WED EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL MAINLY BE ON GRASSY AREAS GIVEN THE            
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE TODAY.                           
THIS PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY WORK SWD ALONG THE I-25/S MTN CORRIDOR            
AS STRONG NE WINDS SLAM UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH NE 700              
MB WINDS OF 20-30 KNTS AND GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING...WE SHOULD SEE 1-6"            
OF SNOW ON THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER             
AMOUNTS FOR THE S SANGRE MTNS. WINTER WX HILITES MAY BE NECESSARY.              
REGARDING THE MODELS...THE GFS...NAM AND EC ALL HAVE A POTENT                   
SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS. THE EC IS MOST INTENSE WITH A FULL CLOSED              
500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS WHILE THE NAM IS WEAKEST WITH A SHARP                  
TROUGH MOVING BY. FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH.            
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS IMPRESSIVE NE 700 MB FLOW OF THE S MTNS/ADJ             
PLAINS.                                                                         
FROM FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BIG TROUGH IS FCST TO SET UP OVER             
THE NW CONUS. THIS WX SYSTEM IS NOT REALLY FCST TO MAKE MUCH                    
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP US IN RATHER DRY            
SW FLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PD...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY INCREASE ONCE              
AGAIN FOR THE S MTNS/PLAINS. THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH             
PRECIP WE GET WED NITE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOPEFULLY...WE WILL GET             
ANOTHER FROPA BY MONDAY. /HODANISH                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TODAY...WITH                               
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 KTS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE             
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  MTN TOP WINDS INCREASE TO 50-60 KTS                   
TONIGHT AS UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  SOME IFR CIGS AND SNOW             
SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA AFTER 06Z.               
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH                
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KCOS/KPUB BETWEEN 09-12Z.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING                
FOR COZ222-224>237.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/34                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
240 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW IS SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT             
AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH              
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MISSOURI                 
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE KS/CO                  
BORDER TODAY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL            
PUSH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                     
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES DEAL WITH WIND POTENTIAL TODAY AS WELL AS              
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. POPS AND WEATHER ARE UPCOMING FOR WED/THU.             
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH TUESDAY              
NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY UP TO 18Z THERE SHOULD BE            
ADEQUATE MOISTURE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE               
SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS              
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING.                 
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH                  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT WEATHER AND POPS LOOK REASONABLE AND DO            
NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                              
THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS WHETHER THERE IS A NEED FOR A WIND                
ADVISORY.                                                                       
THE RUC INDICATES THAT RH WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS                 
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THE 00Z               
GFS SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING BELOW              
15 PERCENT RH AND THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY ONLY GET TO 15 PERCENT IN              
THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AREA...THE RUC                 
SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUPPORTING WIND WILL BE IN EASTERN                    
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE KS/CO BORDER IT MAY BE MORE                
DIFFICULT TO GET A GUST GREATER THAN 25KTS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE             
POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.  PLAN TO KEEP THE CURRENT RED FLAG              
WARNING WITH NO CHANGES.                                                        
WIND WILL PROBABLY BE AT OR JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THIS                
AFTERNOON. THE VWP SHOWING 50 KTS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE MCK                 
PROFILER SHOWING 40KTS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING WITH                        
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW WINDS             
IN EXCESS OF 30KTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES THIS                  
AFTERNOON. PLAN A WIND ADVISORY OVER THAT AREA FROM 18Z TO 02Z                  
TODAY.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 80S WITH MILD                
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 40S AND 850                       
TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 C. A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER 850 TEMPERATURES ON             
WEDNESDAY BACK TO JUST BELOW 10 C. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THERE               
THROUGH THURSDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO               
THE LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY MID 50S ON THURSDAY. MIN                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT BUT FALL TO THE LOWER 30S               
WED NIGHT/THU NIGHT.                                                            
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
222 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                      
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE              
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS. WIND                
DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND                      
SOUTHWEST. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15KT.                   
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO              
30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. FROM 18Z TO 00Z...WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST              
OF THE DAY AT 25 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AFTER                       
00Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS.                           
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM MDT /8             
     PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.               
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-029.                                                
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM MDT /8             
     PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.                                       
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR NEZ081.                                                                
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR              
     COZ252>254.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
441 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER              
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NW            
ONTARIO...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. SINCE UPPER MI IS NOW            
CLOSE TO THE RIDGE AXIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE              
SOUTH FROM LOWER MI TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEREFORE IN                 
RETURN FLOW. THE RETURN FLOW IS NOT THAT STRONG YET...NOTED BY A                
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER UPPER MI COMPARED TO THAT OVER THE                
DAKOTAS AND MN...WHICH ARE CLOSER TO 991MB LOW PRESSURE IN NE                   
MONTANA. RETURN FLOW DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE SINCE THE HIGH                 
PRESSURE AREA EXTENDS INTO THE GULF. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF               
THE PLAINS AND  MIDWEST DEPICT THE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THEIR PROFILE.            
HOWEVER... PLENTY OF WARM AIR IS PRESENT...WITH 850MB TEMPS AT 00Z              
OF 0C AT INL AND CWPL...AND THEN RAPIDLY RISE TO 12C AT ABR...13C AT            
BIS AND 22C AT UNR. HIGH TEMPS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
REFLECT THE WARM 850MB TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S              
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.                 
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ONLY CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK            
OF ARE HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH ENCOMPASS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL                      
CANADA...NORTH DAKOTA...NRN MN AND NW ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS ARE                 
ASSOCIATED WITH A STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE                        
PACIFIC...WHICH RIDES UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BETWEEN THE                  
PACIFIC NW UPPER TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE.                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS THROUGH WED NIGHT AND SNOWMELT.                
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO CROSSES UPPER              
MI THIS MORNING...THEN THE AREA IS PLACED UNDER SW FLOW THROUGH                 
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES INTO THE                  
ROCKIES. AS NOTED IN THE SYNOPSIS...AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.             
IS VERY DRY...SO NO CONCERN EXISTS FOR PCPN. MAIN CONCERNS IS HOW               
BREEZY IT WILL BECOME TODAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS ARE. TIGHT PRESSURE              
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CURRENTLY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER            
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS GET A BIT TIGHTER AS THE LOW IN            
NE MONTANA SHIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND DEEPENS TO AROUND 988MB.                
MODELS REFLECT THIS BY SHOWING 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO 35-40 KT BY            
21Z...AND EVEN 45-50KT OVER THE WESTERN U.P.. NEXT QUESTION THEN IS             
HOW MUCH SUN DO WE SEE TO HELP MIX THESE DOWN. MODELS DEPICT THE                
CIRRUS DECK TO OUR NW SPREADING IN HERE ATTM DISSIPATING THROUGH THE            
DAY WEST TO EAST. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN WILL BE               
REALIZED. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SW                    
DIRECTION AND PLENTY OF SUN...IT WOULD SEEM A STRONG MIXING DAY IS              
IN ORDER. MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL SEEM TO HAVE A HARD TIME BRINGING              
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 850MB...WHICH MAY HAVE SOME CREDIT SEEING THE 00Z             
SOUNDING FROM BIS ONLY MIXING TO 870MB. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE                  
CIRRUS IS HAVING SOME IMPACT. LOOKING BACK AT APRIL 15 2002...WHEN              
WE HIT OUR RECORD HIGH OF 76...THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR THE 16TH AT GRB             
MIXED UP TO 875MB WHEN EVEN WARMER TEMPS ADVECTED IN TO STRENGTHEN              
THE INVERSION (00Z 850MB TEMP WAS 18C). OUR 850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY                
PROGGED TO REACH 6 TO 12C...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE                    
DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN U.P.. GIVEN THE TWO SOUNDINGS                    
DESCRIBED...DECIDED TO USE A GENERAL MIXING HEIGHT OF 875MB TODAY.              
THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.               
GIVEN THE MIXING HEIGHTS...CONCERN EXISTS OF REACHING WIND ADVISORY             
CRITERIA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WITH THE RUC 13                
SHOWING GUSTS AROUND 40 KT FOR BARAGA...MARQUETTE...ONTONAGON AND               
GOGEBIC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY              
FOR THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE MIXING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD CRASH. THUS A              
GOOD SETUP IS IN PLACE FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR A FAIRLY            
THICK SNOWPACK. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN...THE LOWER DEWPOINTS             
SHOULD HELP PREVENT A QUICK SNOWPACK MELT. FOR TONIGHT...THE                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN BREEZY                 
CONDITIONS AND LIMIT TEMP FALL. SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO            
DROP MUCH BELOW 50F.                                                            
WED AND WED NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO            
SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE              
EASTERN U.S.. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME UPPER            
FORCING FOR PCPN IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV INDICATED OVER SOUTHERN              
WYOMING AT 12Z WED. THIS SHRTWV MOVES NE INTO NRN MN BY 00Z                     
THU...BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NE MN.            
ALTHOUGH THE LOW`S COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING...WHICH DOES HELP TO               
BRING MORE MOISTURE UP INTO THE CWA AS INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE                
WATERS RISING TO 0.75 IN...CAPPING EXISTS ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THE              
OVERALL AIRMASS IS STILL FAIRLY DRY...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY PCPN AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED NIGHT...CARRIED SOME LOW                 
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS DPVA FROM THE SHRTWV APPROACHES. NOT              
VERY IMPRESSED BY THIS EITHER SINCE A LOT OF THE FORCING HEADS                  
NORTH. THEREFORE REDUCED POPS TO 20 AND THESE OVER UPPER MI COULD BE            
REMOVED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST. TEMPS FOR WED ARE SOMEWHAT                      
INTERESTING. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED CURRENTLY STREAMING ON THE               
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE APPEARS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CWA                   
THROUGH THE DAY...MEANING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WEST TO             
EAST. HOWEVER...WITH A BREEZY SW FLOW CONTINUING BUT NOT AS STRONG              
AS TODAY...WARMER TEMPS TO START OFF AND STILL QUITE A BIT OF                   
SUNSHINE...THINK SOME DECENT MIXING SHOULD OCCUR. IN FACT...MODEL               
SOUNDINGS DEPICT HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS...PERHAPS UP TO 825MB.                   
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD...THINK WED WILL PROBABLY              
BE THE WARMEST DAY AND MORE CONFIDENT OF 70F OCCURRING IN BARAGA AND            
MARQUETTE. LOOKING BACK AT THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR GRB ON APRIL 17 2002            
(WE HIT 83 ON THE 16TH)...THE SOUNDING MIXED UP TO 800MB DESPITE                
HAVING MORE MOISTURE...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND TO WHAT IS PROGGED             
FOR THIS YEAR`S 15TH AND 16TH. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX                    
SOME...BUT SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. SINCE SNOWPACK                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY AT 32F... CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR            
THE SNOW TO MELT QUICKLY. IN ADDITION...KEPT FAIRLY WARM TEMPS IN               
FOR WED NIGHT (MOSTLY 40S) WITH A SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH MEANS            
MELTING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH RIVER                
LEVELS AS WE GET INTO WED NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU.                             
THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH              
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...EVENTUALLY CROSSING              
THE CWA SOME POINT ON FRI. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHERN                
PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE              
CENTRAL PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW. FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS             
OF ATTENTION IS THE DPVA FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE               
UPPER TROUGH...AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BEHIND            
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT. THESE TWO                
MECHANISMS WILL HELP TO GENERATE A BAND OF PCPN...WHICH MODEL                   
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FROM NE IA INTO SE UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MI BY                
LATE THU...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH                 
MOVES INTO THE CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THE CONSENSUS            
AXIS. FOR FRI...THE GFS WANTS TO TAKE THE UPPER LOW NORTHWARD...                
WHICH RESULTS IN PCPN INTO THE EASTERN CWA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.                  
PREFER THE MORE SUPPRESSED IDEA OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN...              
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH                 
WHICH RESULTS IN CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...WILL            
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE             
CLOUD COVER OVERALL DURING THIS PERIOD AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW...IN               
ADDITION TO 850MB TEMPS COOLING TO 0-2C ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE             
A BIT COOLER. GOING FORECAST TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.                             
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRI NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO DROP            
DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON SAT WHICH WILL PUSH MORE UPPER RIDGING              
OVER THE CWA...AND THEREFORE WARMER AIR. WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS                 
UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING...PARTICULARLY WITH              
THE 00Z ECMWF AND FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASICALLY THE               
NEW ECMWF CREATES A 998MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AT 12Z                  
TUE...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BELOW IT ADVECTING 850MB TEMPS OF -12C                 
EASTWARD TO INL. THIS COLD AIR STAYS AWAY FROM HERE THROUGH THE REST            
OF ITS RUN...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MID-UPR HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE                   
DOMINATING. CONTINUED MENTION OF LLWS AT BOTH SITES UNTIL 14Z AS                
STRONG SWRLY GRADIENT FLOW DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE SFC BETWEEN                    
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 14Z TUE...EXPECT SRLY            
WINDS TO GUST OVR 30 KT AT BOTH SITES...AND MAY EVEN APPROACH 40 KT             
AT KSAW WITH FAVORABLE SRLY FLOW. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME THIS            
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING...BUT KSAW SHOULD STILL GUST TO             
25 KT. INCLUDED LLWS AT KCMX WITH WINDS TO 40 KT AROUND 1KFT AS AXIS            
OF LOW-LVL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN HIGH                    
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVR PLAINS. WARM AIR                      
OVERRIDING COLD LAKE TEMPS WILL CREATE A STABLE PROFILE AND PROHIBIT            
A WIDESPREAD GALE EVENT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ON               
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE EVENING. SUSTAINED 30 KNOT WINDS WILL                 
CONTINUE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY                
WINDS 35-40 KT...GALE WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD OVER ERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR NEARSHORE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALSO                  
POSTED A GALE WARNING FOR SAXON HARBOR TO ONTONAGON NEARSHORE AREAS             
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY             
DIMINISH TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS BY THIS TIME. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS                   
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE            
WAKE OF THE FRONT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING               
     FOR MIZ004-005.                                                            
  WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM               
     CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-009.                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM                
     CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ240-241.                                          
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING               
     FOR LSZ250-251.                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION/MARINE...VOSS                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
950 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES               
AND WIND.                                                                       
COLD FRONT THROUGH FAR NW ND AND WILL APPROACH NW TIP OF FORECAST               
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF BOUNDARY STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE              
THROUGH MOST OF VALLEY REGION EASTWARD. MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON              
NOT REAL DEEP (AOB 900MB) HOWEVER RUC SHOWING 30 TO 40KTS TO MIX AS             
FAR NORTH AS GFK WITH LESS WINDS TO MIX AS YOU APPROACH CANADIAN                
BORDER. FOR THIS WILL EXTEND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY NORTHWARD THROUGH            
GRAND FORKS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH WEST MINNESOTA EXCLUDING             
COUNTIES ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER             
FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH MIXING STILL EXPECT                    
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. SNOW FIELD ERODING RAPIDLY AND                 
MASKED SOMEWHAT BY CIRRUS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HOWEVER WILL KEEP                  
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER LAKES REGION. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR                     
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS            
AGAIN FROM VALLEY REGION INTO NW MN. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE              
AREA THIS EVENING AND MAY BRING MVFR CIGS POST FRONTAL.                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR                              
NDZ016-027>030-038-039-049-052-053.                                             
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR                              
MNZ001>003-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1024 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO RAISE WINDS AND ISSUE A                   
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY. KSWW-KABI-KDYS ALL REPORTING                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT 15Z AND BASED ON LATEST RUC/NAM                      
GUIDANCE...THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.              
LACY                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR                 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LLJ OVER THE NORTHERN AREA WILL RESULT IN A                
40 TO 50 KNOT LLWS AT KABI AND KSJT THROUGH MID MORNING. STRONG                 
SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING ACROSS ALL OF WEST                      
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND              
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH                   
SOMEWHAT BUT MAINTAIN GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN                
TERMINALS WHILE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED OVER THE               
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008/                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
THIS MORNING A SFC FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS FROM C CANADA INTO ID TO              
THE PACIFIC COAST. SRLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WC TX AS A LEE               
SIDE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING. THIS WILL INCREASE SFC GRADIENTS OVER               
THE AREA WITH BREEZY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND WED AS THE               
TROUGH WILL STAY PERSISTENT WITH A DRY LINE DEVELOPING ACROSS W TX              
ON WED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES TODAY                
AND WED...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLE BY LATE WED INTO EARLY              
THU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY THU.                 
HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY                  
SLOTTED WITH THIS EVENT WITH ONLY LOW POPS EXPECTED FOR THU/THU NT              
FOR EXTREME E AND S/SE FOR THE EVENT. FRI/SAT HOLD HIGH PRESS/DRY               
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.                                                        
A SECOND DRY LINE EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE                  
WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME E              
SECTIONS...BUT RIGHT NOW TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS DRY              
SLOTTING IS AGAIN LIKELY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE CHANGES                 
FOR THE WEEKEND.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  79  57  80  59 /   0   0   0  10                                       
SAN ANGELO  81  58  83  60 /   0   0   0   0                                    
JUNCTION  78  54  80  60 /   0   0   0  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                  
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1150 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1136 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                     
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED VERY QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FEW              
LOCATIONS ALREADY AT 80 BEFORE NOON...AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES              
SEVERAL DEGREES. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT A VERY SHARP DROP              
IN TD VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM               
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED RH VALUES TO AROUND 5 PERCENT IN THE WEST                    
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STARTED RED FLAG WARNING SOONER TO ACCOUNT                
FOR THIS AND ALSO EXPANDED IT SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVENING AS                 
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE VERY WELL MIXED AND SLOW TO RECOVER. EXPECTED              
D MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS OVERDONE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND MAY                 
HAVE TO CONSIDER EXPANDING WARNING TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY ONCE                
STRONGER WINDS SET IN..BUT CURRENT THINKING IS RH WILL STAY JUST                
ABOVE CRITERIA.                                                                 
FOR WIND ADVISORY...GENERAL TREND IN MODELS IS TO SLOW THE ONSET                
OF STRONGER WINDS...BUT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL GET GOING BETWEEN                
21-00Z. FARTHER WEST...40KTS APPEARS POSSIBLE ATOP THE VERY DEEPLY              
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT CONDITION APPEAR MARGINAL. ALREADY SEEING              
ONE OB NEAR KIT CARSON NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS                  
TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. WILL EXPAND               
ADVISORY IF THIS LOOKS MORE WIDESPREAD.                                         
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW IS SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT             
AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH              
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MISSOURI                 
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE KS/CO                  
BORDER TODAY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL            
PUSH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                     
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES DEAL WITH WIND POTENTIAL TODAY AS WELL AS              
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. POPS AND WEATHER ARE UPCOMING FOR WED/THU.             
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH TUESDAY              
NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY UP TO 18Z THERE SHOULD BE            
ADEQUATE MOISTURE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE               
SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS              
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING.                 
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH                  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT WEATHER AND POPS LOOK REASONABLE AND DO            
NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                              
THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS WHETHER THERE IS A NEED FOR A WIND                
ADVISORY.                                                                       
THE RUC INDICATES THAT RH WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS                 
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THE 00Z               
GFS SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING BELOW              
15 PERCENT RH AND THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY ONLY GET TO 15 PERCENT IN              
THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AREA...THE RUC                 
SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUPPORTING WIND WILL BE IN EASTERN                    
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE KS/CO BORDER IT MAY BE MORE                
DIFFICULT TO GET A GUST GREATER THAN 25KTS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE             
POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.  PLAN TO KEEP THE CURRENT RED FLAG              
WARNING WITH NO CHANGES.                                                        
WIND WILL PROBABLY BE AT OR JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THIS                
AFTERNOON. THE VWP SHOWING 50 KTS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE MCK                 
PROFILER SHOWING 40KTS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING WITH                        
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW WINDS             
IN EXCESS OF 30KTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES THIS                  
AFTERNOON. PLAN A WIND ADVISORY OVER THAT AREA FROM 18Z TO 02Z                  
TODAY.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 80S WITH MILD                
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 40S AND 850                       
TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 C. A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER 850 TEMPERATURES ON             
WEDNESDAY BACK TO JUST BELOW 10 C. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THERE               
THROUGH THURSDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO               
THE LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY MID 50S ON THURSDAY. MIN                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT BUT FALL TO THE LOWER 30S               
WED NIGHT/THU NIGHT.                                                            
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1136 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                     
VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY                 
WINDS DECREASING AFTER 02Z. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT AREA                  
BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z...WITH WINDS BECONMING NORTHWEST 17-23KT.                    
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     KSZ001-013-027-041.                                                        
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002-014-028-          
     042.                                                                       
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-          
     029.                                                                       
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.                   
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080.                  
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.                      
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS               
AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE                  
SFC...A TIGHT GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY INTO              
THE NRN LAKES BTWN A 987 MB LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND A RIDGE OVER              
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE WAA PATTERN HAS BROUGHT A LARGE PATCHY OF              
HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI WHICH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO REDUCE INSOLATION            
AND MIXING DEPTH. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHT TO 900-875              
MB AT KRHI/KCMX/KSAW. WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING TEMPS HAD NOT                   
CLIMBED BEYOND THE MID 50S AND WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED               
AOB 40 MPH.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                           
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH TO PERSIST LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE 45 TO 55 KT 925-850 MB WIND             
MAX OVER MN INTO NW WI SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING.                            
HOWEVER...DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AT MOST                
LOCATIONS BY AROUND 00Z. DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS THAT OFTEN DO NOT                  
DECOUPLE SUCH AS LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR                             
IRONWOOD/ONTONAGON AND MARQUETTE COULD SEE CONTINUE STRONG GUSTS                
INTO THE LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN ONLY LCL EFFECTS THE ADVISORY            
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO 23Z. WINDS/MIXING WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS WELL                
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS TO AROUND 40 INLAND AND THE MID AND UPPER            
40S IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.                                  
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES UPPER MICHIGAN. SINCE THE             
SIGNIFICANT 800-600 MB FGEN REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA THE FCST CONTINUES          
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.            
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OUT WARMER ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND             
BREEZY SSW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO              
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS SOME RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD              
STAGE THOUGH ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. DID COORDINATE WITH               
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER THIS MORNING...THEIR LATEST FORECAST                  
INDICATES THE TAHQUAMENON...PRESQUE ISLE AND MIDDLE BRANCH OF THE               
ESCANABA RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND. OTHER               
RIVERS TO WATCH ARE THE MICHIGAMME...FORD AND STURGEON RIVER NEAR               
ALSTON. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IN THE FORECAST...THE SNOWMELT IS               
NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARM               
TODAY...SNOWMELT WILL NOT BE DRAMATIC DUE TO SNOWPACK                           
TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE WEST HALF...REMAINING JUST BELOW 32                   
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WILL ALLOW FOR                
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT TO TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE             
IN THE 60S...DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND WINDS WILL REMAIN             
STRONG. AS A RESULT...SHOULD START SEEING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES               
STARTING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...                            
MAIN CONCERN IS IF THERE WILL BE ANY PCPN.                                      
SFC FRONT CLOSES IN ON FAR WESTERN UPR MI BY 00Z THU. DRY AIRMASS               
AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRE FRONTAL PCPN. FOR THE MOST               
PART EXPECT PCPN ON WED EVENING TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OVR ONTARIO           
WHERE MORE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/H3               
DIVERGENCE ARE MAXIMIZED. AFTER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BETTER                   
DYNAMICS PUSH ACROSS CWA LATER WED NIGHT. CONCENTRATED DEEPER                   
MOISTURE IS LACKING SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN. COULD BE SOME               
SHOWERS JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THOUGH. ALTHOUGH SFC FRONT                
SHIFTS TO FAR EASTERN UPR MI BY 12Z THU...THREAT OF SOME RAIN HANGS             
IN OVR EAST HALF OF CWA AS H85-H7 MOISTURE STREAMS UP ALONG                     
LINGERING H85 FRONT. SINCE TROUGH IS STILL OVERHEAD...H3 JET LIFTS              
OUT OF CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HELPS ENHANCE LIFTING                 
ALONG THE H85 FRONT. AT THIS POINT...MODELS DIVERGE WITH HANDLING OF            
THE H85 FRONT AND RESULTANT STRIPE OF MODERATE QPF. NAM/GFS KEEP THE            
PCPN OVR ERN CWA WHILE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN KEEP QPF OVR WI AND LWR             
MI THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SINCE SIGNAL FOR PCPN IS PRESENT ON ALL                  
MODELS ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT IS DIFFERENT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN            
IN OVR SE CWA THU NIGHT.                                                        
UPR LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN              
FEATURE IMPACTING UPR MI IS TROUGHING FM CNTRL CANADA INTO WESTERN              
CONUS. OVERALL...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT             
WEEK...ESPECIALLY INLAND AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY DIP BLO NORMAL AS                
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY. BY FRI...PREVAILING WIND IS FM THE ESE AS                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FM HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC WHILE A SFC TROUGH               
PERSISTS OVR THE PLAINS. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH OVR WESTERN CONUS              
WILL EDGE EAST AND BRING A FRONT INTO UPR LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                
OUTSIDE OF THIS FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE              
THAT COULD BRING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN TO UPR LAKES IS A CUTOFF LOW              
THAT FORMS OVR OHIO VALLEY ON FRI. LATEST GFS AND NAM NOW TRENDING              
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPR LOW...AND NOW BOTH ARE BRINGING A SFC                
TROUGH INTO UPR LAKES FOR SAT. LATEST ECMWF BUCKS ITS PREVIOUS RUNS             
BY INDICATING QPF OVR MOST OF UPR MI FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. NOT QUITE              
CONVINCED YET AS THIS REPRESENTS A SUDDEN CHANGE FM PREVIOUS ECWMF.             
LET THE DRY FORECAST GO FOR NOW...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUDS FRI NIGHT             
AND SAT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING.             
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BTWN              
LOW PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND THE DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE                    
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME THIS EVENING                
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING...BUT KSAW SHOULD STILL GUST TO 25 KT.              
INCLUDED LLWS AT KCMX WITH WINDS TO 40 KT AROUND 1KFT AS AXIS OF                
LOW-LVL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STIFF SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING GALE STRENGTH WILL CONTINUE THIS              
EVENING WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN AN APPROACHING LOW PRES AND             
HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...WARM AIR OVERRIDING COLD            
LAKE TEMPS WILL CREATE A STABLE PROFILE AND PROHIBIT A WIDESPREAD               
GALE EVENT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SUSTAINED 30 KNOT            
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING             
SOUTHERLY WINDS 35-40 KT...GALE WARNING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK OVER               
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEARSHORE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                   
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY             
DIMINISH TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS BY THIS TIME. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS                   
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE            
WAKE OF THE FRONT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING MIZ002-004-005-009.                 
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING LSZ240-241.               
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING LSZ250-251.                         
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
HYDROLOGY...DJP                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...JLB                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1219 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL                        
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO OPERATIONS                  
WITH OBSERVED WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 30                  
KTS. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND                  
INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AT ABOUT 2KFT AGL WHICH WILL PRODUCE LLWS                
CONDITIONS. I INSERTED A WIND SHEAR GROUP TO COVER FOR THE                      
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIM...ACTUALLY VERY SLIM...CHANCE OF              
MVFR LOW CLOUDS RETURNING AS FAR WEST AS KJCT BY WEDNESDAY                      
MORNING. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN CLEANED OUT BY A FRONT WHICH               
HAS PUSHED CLEAR INTO THE CARRIBEAN SEA. SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME              
FOR THIS MOISTURE TO RETURN BEFORE WE SEE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN              
THE MORNING.                                                                    
LACY                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO RAISE WINDS AND ISSUE A                   
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY. KSWW-KABI-KDYS ALL REPORTING                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT 15Z AND BASED ON LATEST RUC/NAM                      
GUIDANCE...THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.              
LACY                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR                 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LLJ OVER THE NORTHERN AREA WILL RESULT IN A                
40 TO 50 KNOT LLWS AT KABI AND KSJT THROUGH MID MORNING. STRONG                 
SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING ACROSS ALL OF WEST                      
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND              
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH                   
SOMEWHAT BUT MAINTAIN GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN                
TERMINALS WHILE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED OVER THE               
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008/                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
THIS MORNING A SFC FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS FROM C CANADA INTO ID TO              
THE PACIFIC COAST. SRLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WC TX AS A LEE               
SIDE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING. THIS WILL INCREASE SFC GRADIENTS OVER               
THE AREA WITH BREEZY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND WED AS THE               
TROUGH WILL STAY PERSISTENT WITH A DRY LINE DEVELOPING ACROSS W TX              
ON WED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES TODAY                
AND WED...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLE BY LATE WED INTO EARLY              
THU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY THU.                 
HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY                  
SLOTTED WITH THIS EVENT WITH ONLY LOW POPS EXPECTED FOR THU/THU NT              
FOR EXTREME E AND S/SE FOR THE EVENT. FRI/SAT HOLD HIGH PRESS/DRY               
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.                                                        
A SECOND DRY LINE EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE                  
WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME E              
SECTIONS...BUT RIGHT NOW TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS DRY              
SLOTTING IS AGAIN LIKELY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE CHANGES                 
FOR THE WEEKEND.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  57  80  59  71 /   0   0  10  10                                       
SAN ANGELO  58  83  60  76 /   0   0   0  10                                    
JUNCTION  54  80  60  78 /   0   0  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                  
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/30                                                                        
</pre> tx