FXUS61 KALY 221907
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
310 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2004
 

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... LOW CLOUDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND 
NE PA. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS TO EAST AND WEST.  WHILE NEW ENGLAND 
HEAVILY CLOUD SATELLITE INDICATES THEY HAVE THINNED IN EASTERN NEW 
YORK.  THE OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOIST LAYER 
SHRINKING.  HOWEVER JUST HOW MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER DEPARTS IS 
STILL IN QUESTION AS SOME MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION.  
EXPECT TREND OF DECREASING CLOUDS ALTHOUGH IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 
THEY MAY HANG ON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS KALB 
AND KPOU DROPPED TO 40 AND 42 RESPECTIVELY LAST NIGHT.  WITH ANY 
CLEARING, READINGS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30 AND MID 30S.  AS A RESULT 
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE FEW AREAS CONSIDERED TO 
REMAIN AGRICULTURALLY ACTIVE. ON SATURDAY LEFTOVER STRATOCU, EARLY 
AM FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND WE WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN TODAY.
 

&&
 
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... 
BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND CURRENT 
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE WEEK ON THE EAST SIDE 
OF A RIDGE RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.  OF COURSE SLIGHT 
RETROGRESSION OF RIDGE AND WE MAY BE AGAIN DEALING WITH ATLANTIC 
MOISTURE.

THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD.  THE 
BEST NOW LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT EVEN THAT IS ONLY IN THE 
MARGINAL.  SYSTEM APPROACHING FORM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WEAKENS 
AND TENDS TO SHEAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL COVERAGE SHRINKS 
AS SYSTEM RUNS INTO CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC LOW.  GFS HAS NOT BEEN 
VERY CONSISTENT IN SYSTEMS'S SPEED OR HOW FAR NORTHEAST 
PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS 
AT SOME SUNDAY NIGHT.  A SECOND WEAKER IMPULSE AND MOISTURE BAND 
APPROACHES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.  
 
00Z/06Z GFS, ECMWF AND DGEX IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE 
WEEK ALTHOUGH GFS HOLDS ATLANTIC UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE EAST 
COAST.  DIFFERENCES AMPLIFY BY END OF THE WEEK.  ECMWF MUCH ATLANTIC 
CLOSED LOW TO ALMOST NEW FOUNDLAND WHILE 06Z GFS HOLDS UPPER LOW A 
FEW HUNDRED MIES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.  DGEX HAS ATLANTIC UPPER LOW 
MERGING WITH SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINE. ALL 3 MODELS 
KEEP ATLANTIC PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST. 12Z GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS FAVOR KEEPING ATLANTIC SYSTEM TO THE EAST.


&&

.AVIATION...BKN STRATOCU WITH VFR AREAS MVFR CEILINGS.  CLOUDS WILL 
SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH LESS STRATOCU AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS 
SATURDAY.  PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.  
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DRY PERIOD COMING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUM 
PRECIP.  RIVER LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DROP.  NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. 

 
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY  (3 AM-8 AM)  NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-
VT...NONE.
&&

$$