000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021446
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS WEAKENING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
NOW EXPOSED UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY CONCENTRATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS ROTATED
CYCLONICALLY TOWARD THE EAST AND WHILE SOME SLIGHT INWARD WRAPPING
HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WE EXPECT CONTINUED WEAKENING AND FORECAST
DISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS.

KRISTY IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND OUR
FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE OPEN U TURN THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH DISSIPATION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM'S
CURRENT POSITION.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHALLOW BAM AND CONSENSUS
ALL PREDICT A FASTER U TURN IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASED WESTERLIES.  OUR SLOWER MOTION IS BASED ON
FASTER DISSIPATION THAN IN THE MODELS...BUT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 18.8N 118.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.6N 118.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 118.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 18.3N 118.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/1200Z...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021446
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS WEAKENING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
NOW EXPOSED UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY CONCENTRATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS ROTATED
CYCLONICALLY TOWARD THE EAST AND WHILE SOME SLIGHT INWARD WRAPPING
HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WE EXPECT CONTINUED WEAKENING AND FORECAST
DISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS.

KRISTY IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND OUR
FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE OPEN U TURN THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH DISSIPATION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM'S
CURRENT POSITION.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHALLOW BAM AND CONSENSUS
ALL PREDICT A FASTER U TURN IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASED WESTERLIES.  OUR SLOWER MOTION IS BASED ON
FASTER DISSIPATION THAN IN THE MODELS...BUT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 18.8N 118.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.6N 118.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 118.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 18.3N 118.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/1200Z...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA