AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
346 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                                            
CURRENTLY...SNOW HAD COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY               
AFTN AS OF 3 PM...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BEING                     
REALIZED. IN FACT...THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS WELL AS THE SLV               
WAS BORDERING ON MOSTLY SUNNY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET LAY ACROSS             
NORTHERN NM AS PER THE RUC ANALYSIS. THE COLD FRONT THAT CAME                   
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING USHERED IN SOME VERY COLD AIR...AND TEMPS            
THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE VERY GRADUALLY DROPPED. HOWEVER...THE                   
DEMARCATION LINE LURKED...WITH THE TEMP LANDSCAPE RANGING FROM 11 F             
IN COS...12 F IN PUB...17 F IN TAD...AND 35 F IN RATON.                         
TONIGHT...AS NAM AND GFS MODELS HAD INDICATED...TONIGHT WILL IN                 
ESSENCE BE A RELOADING PERIOD FOR THE UPPER PATTERN. THE LARGE UPPER            
LOW REMAINS JUST OFF THE OR AND CA COAST...WITH DEEP W-SW FLOW ALOFT            
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE              
STATE BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL...AND THE ATMOS FOR THE MOST PART DRIES              
OUT FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS OR SO. STILL...ISOLATED PCPN ALONG THE                  
CONTDVD CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SO LEFT SOME POPS THERE.                           
ELSEWHERE...CUT POPS DRASTICALLY WHILE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH CLOUD             
COVER. PATCHES OF CLEARING RIGHT NOW SEEMS TO INDICATE CONTINUED                
CLEARING TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT. COOLED            
MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT...THOUGH PREVIOUS THINKING WAS ON               
THE RIGHT TRACK AND VERY CLOSE. ALSO INCLUDED SOME AREAS OF FOG                 
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SLV...EL PASO COUNTY AND ALONG THE                
LOWER ARKANSAS. FINALLY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PINPOINT SPOTS OVER             
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WIND CHILL CRITERIA IS MET. HOWEVER...THIS             
OCCURS FOR 2 OT 3 HRS AT MOST AND IS SO ISOLATED DID NOT FEEL A                 
HIGHLIGHT WAS NECESSARY TONIGHT.                                                
TOMORROW...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH THE                
UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST AND THE FLOW                
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING TO A MORE SW DIRECTION. THIS WILL              
ONCE AGAIN DRAW A HEALTHY MOISTURE FEED UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND             
INTO WESTERN CO. THE TIMING OF THE PCPN SWITCH TURNING BACK ON IS               
ALWAYS A QUESTION...BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST                 
RIGHT AROUND MIDDAY IS WHEN THINGS START CRANKING UP AGAIN...WHICH              
THEN CONTINUES TO PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FOCUS AREA WILL BE            
ALONG THE CONTDVD ONCE AGAIN...AND WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE               
BEEN HOISTED FOR THAT AREA BEGINNING AT NOON. SNOW SHOULD SPREAD                
EAST ACROSS THE SLV AND E MTS TO THE I25 CORRIDOR THRU THE AFTN AND             
EVE AS WELL...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADV                    
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER JET SLIDES NORTH AS WELL...UP                  
ACROSS THE CWA...SO GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR THE               
HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WENT WITH THE AVG OF             
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BUT OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW             
MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE PCPN RESUMES. MOORE                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)                                              
NEXT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY HEADS ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY             
NIGHT...WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN                    
COLORADO. STRONG UPPER JET AND 50-60 KNOT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700 MB              
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST             
MOUNTAINS...WITH AMOUNTS PUSHING 3 FEET AROUND WOLF CREEK PASS                  
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UPGRADED CURRENT WATCH TO A MIX OF                   
WARNING/ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST                                
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS SET OF FORECAST GRIDS LOOKED OK AND              
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. SOME CONCERN ABOUT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL             
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS               
NOSE OF THE UPPER JET MOVES EAST ALONG THE NM BORDER AND FAIRLY                 
STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST SNOW                     
AMOUNTS OVER THE SANGRES JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL                 
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP               
OVER THE PLAINS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH                  
DOWNSLOPE DRYING REDUCING SATURATION AT 700 MB AND ABOVE...MAY NOT              
SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. CURRENT                  
POPS MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGH OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR ON TUES...BUT                
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP FROM CHANGING THINGS MUCH AT THIS              
POINT. SUSPECT MODELS ARE ERODING COLD AIR TOO QUICK OVER THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...SO WILL RUN WITH MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE                     
NUMBERS. HIGHLIGHTS END TUESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH WESTERN TROUGH               
SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING...SNOW MAY               
NOT COMPLETELY SHUT OFF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN JUANS. COLD AIR               
SLOSHES BACK SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER                 
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SO LITTLE/NO WARMING OVER MUCH OF THE EAST               
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON...DESPITE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAJOR                
PIECE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY CROSSES THE STATE WED NIGHT                 
AND THURSDAY...WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF AT LAST ALONG THE                     
DIVIDE BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE...SLIGHTLY BETTER               
MIXING SHOULD ERODE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE               
ARCTIC AIR...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE SANGRES AND                 
RATON MESA WARMING SOMEWHAT...THOUGH AGAIN SHADED COOLER THAN                   
GUIDANCE. GFS NOW QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THE ARCTIC FRONT              
BACK SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EUROPEAN HOLDING IT BACK UNTIL               
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE GFS UPPER PATTERN IS PROBABLY TOO                           
PROGRESSIVE...FASTER IS USUALLY BETTER WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF           
ARCTIC AIR MASSES...SO WILL TEMPER WARM-UP ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY               
AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. COLD AIR LOCKED INTO THE AREA                
BOTH SAT AND SUN...THOUGH SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW                   
FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE DIVIDE.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE REGION WILL BE THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE SKIES CLEAR. BEST CHANCE FOR               
FOG WILL BE AT KALS AND KCOS...SO WILL INCLUDE IFR POTENTIAL IN                 
THE TAFS. SNOW ONCE AGAIN WILL BEGIN ALONG THE CONTDVD BY 19Z                   
MONDAY...WITH W-SW WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCREASING                   
AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE                 
ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.                      
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR                   
COZ058>061-065>068.                                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR                
COZ062>064.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/10                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
845 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.830PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OCCURRING NORTH OF THE ROAN                 
TAVAPUTS WITH HIGHWAY 40 CLOSED FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING...HIGHWAY               
13 REPORTED CLOSED AT 8PM BETWEEN RIFLE AND MEEKER. 6 INCHES                    
REPORTED IN MEEKER AT 8PM. VERNAL HAS YET TO REPORT ANY SNOWFALL...             
BUT ENHANCEMENT IS APPROACHING THE UINTA BASIN. THE FRONT IS SLOW TO            
PUSH SOUTH OF THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS...SURPRISING CONSIDERING ITS STRENGTH           
AND DEPTH. FRONT PASSED GRAND JUNCTION AT 730 WITH SNOW STARTING AT             
830. RIFLE TOO HAD A BIT OF DELAY BUT THEN G52MPH AND SNOW OCCURRED             
AT 820. THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING GATEWAY TO MONTROSE WITH                  
LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED SOUTH OF UNAWEEP CANYON. FRONTOGENETICAL             
FORCING IN THE 00Z RUC INDICATES THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO SE UTAH            
FASTER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION IN NW                    
COLORADO. BY MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM KREMMLING SW TO THE NW           
SAN JUAN MTNS. THEN IT IS PROGGED TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST BY 3AM WITH              
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN DURANGO-PAGOSA BY 5-6AM. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS               
WILL HAVE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE MOST MTNS               
WILL ACCUMULATE SNOW THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO                
TRY TO REFLECT THIS SITUATION.                                                  
&&                                                                              
...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...                  
...ANOTHER STRONG STORM ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                         
SNOW MACHINE IS TURNING ON THE GUNS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND                 
EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM DROPS ACROSS              
THE GREAT BASIN. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD               
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL OF THE LOWER VALLEYS TOPPING 50             
DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF RAIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR            
ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT LATER THE EVENING.                                       
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND                    
INTENSITY THIS EVENING...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA BECOMING ALL SNOW BY               
10 PM.  STRONG H3 JET WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE                    
FORECAST AREA AS ENERGY DIVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE                     
PACNW. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING OVER THE REGION                    
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MAIN TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH               
VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLING IN. CONDITIONS STABILIZE SOMEWHAT                    
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SO INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE               
ALONG WITH COVERAGE DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE                        
AFTERNOON ROLLS ON. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN WELL PLACED AND                   
AMOUNTS REMAIN REASONABLE...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS STORM              
WITH MOUNTAINS AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 FEET AND VALLEYS RANGING FROM 2              
TO 12 INCHES.  WILL MAKE SPECIAL NOTE THAT SEVERAL OF OUR SPOTTERS              
HAVE CALLED IN TODAY COMMENTING ABOUT PRESSURE READINGS BEING SOME              
OF THE LOWEST THEY HAVE RECORDED...WHICH FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE                 
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.                                             
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH                   
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE                 
SEASON SO FAR. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW US TO DROP WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS             
WE BRACE FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM SCHEDULED TO ROLL IN MONDAY AFTERNOON.             
THIS NEXT SYSTEM BEING ACCOMPANIED BY A 160+ KT JET WITH DEEP                   
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. TARGETED AREA WILL BE OVER            
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH                
THIS SOLUTION AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. AS A RESULT...            
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN                     
MOUNTAINS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY              
AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.                        
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                   
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL BROAD EXTENDS               
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE TRACKS            
THROUGH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET OF 170KTS AT 250 MB OVER            
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACCORDING TO THE GFS. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE           
AS THE JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND CAUSE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE             
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN             
MOUNTAINS OF UTAH. FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT HELPING             
TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AS THE LOW PINCHES OFF. THE NORTHERN               
PORTION EXITS EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY WED. THE SOUTHERN           
PORTION CUTS OFF AND DIGS SOUTHWEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN OUT           
ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS LOW WILL REVISIT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION               
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME            
PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING. SHOWERS LINGER               
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT                  
REMAINS TIGHT AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE             
MODELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE THROUGH TONIGHT AS 10,000 FOOT             
WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. EXPECT FAIRLY                        
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 03Z                      
THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE IMPROVING UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.  EXPECT               
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VSBYS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND                    
EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG STORM                 
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW AND WIND TO THE            
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOUNTAIN                  
       ZONES 3/4/9/10/12/13/17/18/19 AND VALLEY ZONES 2/5.                      
      WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE                     
       INTERSTATE-70 CORRIDOR EAST OF NEW CASTLE...AND THE                      
       UPPER GUNNISON VALLEY...ZONES 8 AND 14.                                  
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE                  
       LOWER COLORADO VALLEYS...ZONES 1/6/7/11/20/21/22.                        
      WINTER STORM WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
       FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ZONES                          
       9/12/17/18/19.                                                           
.UT...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOUNTAIN                  
       ZONES 23/25 AND 28.                                                      
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE                  
       EASTERN UINTA BASIN...ZONE 24.                                           
      WINTER STORM WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
       FOR THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...ZONE 28.                            
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.........JOE                                                              
SHORT TERM.....JDC                                                              
LONG TERM......AS                                                               
AVIATION.......JDC                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
904 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO START ALL HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT                
AWAY INSTEAD OF WAITING TO 18Z. 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY               
BEEN REPORTED AT WOLF CREEK AND MONARCH SKI AREAS.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
..COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                  
..HIGH RISK OF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...                   
..WINDY TO VERY WINDY MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO TODAY...                              
CURRENTLY...PUB RADAR SHOWING "WIND SIGNATURE" ALONG THE LEE OF THE             
RAMPART RANGE...PIKES PEAK...WET MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE             
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND EVENT BEGINNING TO TAKE                    
SHAPE...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE SEVERITY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE                
BEEN GUSTING TO 45-55KT ALONG THE RAMPART RANGE PER AIR FORCE                   
ACADEMY SENSORS...BUT AIR FORCE ACADEMY AIRPORT IS LIGHT EASTERLY               
ALONG WITH THE COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT. MOUNTAIN WAVE ROTOR LIKELY             
GIVEN THE EASTERLY WINDS THAT DEVELOP FROM THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND            
COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT. MEANWHILE...FROM LA VETA PASS TO                      
WALSENBURG(GAP FLOW) INCLUDING THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE                
CRISTO MOUNTAINS(MOUNTAIN WAVE)...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO                    
30-40KTS.  FURTHERMORE...THE HIGH TERRAIN MONARCH AWOS SENSOR HAS               
BEEN SUSTAINED AROUND 40KTS AND GUSTING 60KTS. QUITE THE TEMPERATURE            
CONTRAST IN THE WINDY AND NON-WINDY AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PUEBLO            
COUNTY...MID 20S AT PUEBLO AIRPORT AND 40S NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  NOT             
MUCH SNOW ACROSS WESTERN CO...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY SOON CHANGE.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED THE NEXT            
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHS/MOISTURE DRIVING                  
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND TAKING AIR ON CO EARLY THIS MORNING.              
TODAY...WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL 100-140KTS JET STREAK TO MOVE               
INTO CO LATER TODAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS            
SOUTHEASTERN WY WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CO              
PLAINS. THE BULLSEYE FOR QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS/POPS APPEARS TO BE AROUND             
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE                  
ASCENT AND FAVORED WEST-SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW LATER THIS                    
AFTERNOON. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP                
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...EAST OF               
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL                    
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY. HAVE WIND GUSTS JUST               
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NON-MOUNTAINS GENERALLY            
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND ALOFT               
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50KTS              
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND WEST OF THE                 
I-25. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR TODAY GIVEN THE              
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.                                                          
TONIGHT...RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM TO REMAIN OVER               
MUCH OF CO. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF                
SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT...WHICH MAKES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERY             
PROBLEMATIC. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND 14Z/15Z                  
TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH COULD TURN OUT TO BE TOMORROW`S HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES. THUS...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR            
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO. PERIODS OF SNOW               
AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE CONTINENTAL                  
DIVIDE. WILL ADD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 61/62/63/64/67.            
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS TO DROP INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST                
CENTRAL CO AROUND 09Z-12Z/14. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE QPF LATE TONIGHT            
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO WILL              
ADJUST FORECAST BASED ON THIS AND BOU`S ADJUSTMENTS FOR A FASTER                
SYSTEM. 17                                                                      
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS                 
THE WESTERN MTNS/HIGH VALLEYS AS DYNAMICS ASSOC WITH UPPER JET                  
MOVING ACROSS NRN NM/SRN CO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES                  
STILL FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE MTS AND EXPECT CAA TO CONTINUE                    
THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTN...BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PINNED              
UP ALONG THE CONTDVD IN WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW TO KEEP HIGHER                 
MTS ALONG THE CONTDVD SOCKED IN ALL DAY. ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS                
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL SURGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY                
SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE SAME AS                 
THE LOW TEMPS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE (OCCURRING AROUND 15Z) WITH                 
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTN. C51ENGE WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DURING THE MORNING                   
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS              
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WITH BEST POTENTIAL LINGERING ALONG THE                  
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS IN S51OW POST                
FRONTAL UPSLOPE LAYER. FOR NOW...DO NOT THINK SNOWFALL WILL BE                  
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS AS                    
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NEUTRAL BECOMING DOWNGLIDE BY THE                  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND A BRIEF SHOT OF                
DYNAMICS IN THE MORNING AND WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH              
THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES -12 TO -18C RANGE...A FEW                  
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE                   
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
FOR THE EASTERN MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS                   
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE SE                   
PLAINS WITH WINTER MAKING A RATHER BRUTAL RE-APPEARANCE.                        
TROF RELOADS IN THE WEST AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.              
THIS KEEPS COLD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR                    
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE              
WESTERN US MEAN TROF LATE MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW                    
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE WRN MTS ONCE AGAIN. ANTICIPATE THAT WE                  
WILL NEED ANOTHER WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT               
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS. MID LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AS UPPER              
JET APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND SE PLAINS COMES UNDER A PERIOD OF               
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS               
THE EASTERN PLAINS MON NIGHT. WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL LOOKS FAIRLY BRIEF AS         
ENERGY SHOOTS OFF INT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUES                          
MORNING...SO NOT EXPECTING A HEAVY SNOW EVENT...BUT AGAIN WITH                  
FAVORABLE TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER...COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES              
OF FLUFFY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY                    
NIGHT.                                                                          
UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CEN CO ON TUES WITH GFS                    
SUGGESTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE                 
DAY. SRN I-25 CORRIDOR COULD WARM BACK UP BUT THINK THE COLD AIR                
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HAVE A TOUGHER TIME ERODING BACK                         
NORTH...EVEN BENEATH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMP GRIDS           
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NOW.                                                  
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH                      
GFS/ECMWF KEEP TROF OVER THE WRN US. GFS IS QUICKEST TO WEAKEN THE              
TROF AND MOVE IT ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HANGS ENERGY           
BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA ON                   
THURSDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO WESTERLY                  
FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD MEAN A TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND                
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC LIGHT SNOWS POSSIBLE ALONG THE                  
CONTDVD REGION. -KT                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL                 
LIKELY DEVELOP FOR ALL TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS LATER THIS MORNING              
AND AFTERNOON. APPARENT ROTOR WILL BE AROUND KCOS THIS MORNING WITH             
THE WIND EXTREMELY VARIABLE SWITCHING FROM EASTERLY TO PERIOD                   
WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS BACK TO EASTERLY. 17                                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061>064-               
067.                                                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-                  
068.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/10                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
436 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                 
...HIGH RISK OF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...                  
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO TODAY...                             
CURRENTLY...PUB RADAR SHOWING "WIND SIGNATURE" ALONG THE LEE OF THE             
RAMPART RANGE...PIKES PEAK...WET MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE             
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND EVENT BEGINNING TO TAKE                    
SHAPE...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE SEVERITY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE                
BEEN GUSTING TO 45-55KT ALONG THE RAMPART RANGE PER AIR FORCE                   
ACADEMY SENSORS...BUT AIR FORCE ACADEMY AIRPORT IS LIGHT EASTERLY               
ALONG WITH THE COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT. MOUNTAIN WAVE ROTOR LIKELY             
GIVEN THE EASTERLY WINDS THAT DEVELOP FROM THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND            
COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT. MEANWHILE...FROM LA VETA PASS TO                      
WALSENBURG(GAP FLOW) INCLUDING THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE                
CRISTO MOUNTAINS(MOUNTAIN WAVE)...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO                    
30-40KTS.  FURTHERMORE...THE HIGH TERRAIN MONARCH AWOS SENSOR HAS               
BEEN SUSTAINED AROUND 40KTS AND GUSTING 60KTS. QUITE THE TEMPERATURE            
CONTRAST IN THE WINDY AND NON-WINDY AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PUEBLO            
COUNTY...MID 20S AT PUEBLO AIRPORT AND 40S NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  NOT             
MUCH SNOW ACROSS WESTERN CO...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY SOON CHANGE.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED THE NEXT            
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHS/MOISTURE DRIVING                  
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND TAKING AIR ON CO EARLY THIS MORNING.              
TODAY...WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL 100-140KTS JET STREAK TO MOVE               
INTO CO LATER TODAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS            
SOUTHEASTERN WY WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CO              
PLAINS. THE BULLSEYE FOR QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS/POPS APPEARS TO BE AROUND             
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE                  
ASCENT AND FAVORED WEST-SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW LATER THIS                    
AFTERNOON. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP                
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...EAST OF               
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL                    
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY. HAVE WIND GUSTS JUST               
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NON-MOUNTAINS GENERALLY            
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND ALOFT               
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50KTS              
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND WEST OF THE                 
I-25. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR TODAY GIVEN THE              
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.                                                          
TONIGHT...RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM TO REMAIN OVER               
MUCH OF CO. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF                
SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT...WHICH MAKES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERY             
PROBLEMATIC. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND 14Z/15Z                  
TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH COULD TURN OUT TO BE TOMORROW`S HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES. THUS...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR            
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO. PERIODS OF SNOW               
AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE CONTINENTAL                  
DIVIDE. WILL ADD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 61/62/63/64/67.            
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS TO DROP INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST                
CENTRAL CO AROUND 09Z-12Z/14. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE QPF LATE TONIGHT            
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO WILL              
ADJUST FORECAST BASED ON THIS AND BOU`S ADJUSTMENTS FOR A FASTER                
SYSTEM. METZE                                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS                 
THE WESTERN MTNS/HIGH VALLEYS AS DYNAMICS ASSOC WITH UPPER JET                  
MOVING ACROSS NRN NM/SRN CO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES                  
STILL FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE MTS AND EXPECT CAA TO CONTINUE                    
THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTN...BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PINNED              
UP ALONG THE CONTDVD IN WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW TO KEEP HIGHER                 
MTS ALONG THE CONTDVD SOCKED IN ALL DAY. ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS                
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL SURGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY                
SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE SAME AS                 
THE LOW TEMPS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE (OCCURRING AROUND 15Z) WITH                 
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTN. CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL                
ACROSS THE PLAINS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DURING THE MORNING                   
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS              
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WITH BEST POTENTIAL LINGERING ALONG THE                  
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS IN SHALLOW POST              
FRONTAL UPSLOPE LAYER. FOR NOW...DO NOT THINK SNOWFALL WILL BE                  
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS AS                    
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NEUTRAL BECOMING DOWNGLIDE BY THE                  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND A BRIEF SHOT OF                
DYNAMICS IN THE MORNING AND WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH              
THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES -12 TO -18C RANGE...A FEW                  
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE                   
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
FOR THE EASTERN MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS                   
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE SE                   
PLAINS WITH WINTER MAKING A RATHER BRUTAL RE-APPEARANCE.                        
TROF RELOADS IN THE WEST AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.              
THIS KEEPS COLD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR                    
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE              
WESTERN US MEAN TROF LATE MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW                    
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE WRN MTS ONCE AGAIN. ANTICIPATE THAT WE                  
WILL NEED ANOTHER WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT               
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS. MID LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AS UPPER              
JET APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND SE PLAINS COMES UNDER A PERIOD OF               
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS               
THE EASTERN PLAINS MON NIGHT. WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL LOOKS FAIRLY BRIEF AS         
ENERGY SHOOTS OFF INT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUES                          
MORNING...SO NOT EXPECTING A HEAVY SNOW EVENT...BUT AGAIN WITH                  
FAVORABLE TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER...COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES              
OF FLUFFY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY                    
NIGHT.                                                                          
UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CEN CO ON TUES WITH GFS                    
SUGGESTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE                 
DAY. SRN I-25 CORRIDOR COULD WARM BACK UP BUT THINK THE COLD AIR                
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HAVE A TOUGHER TIME ERODING BACK                         
NORTH...EVEN BENEATH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMP GRIDS           
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NOW.                                                  
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH                      
GFS/ECMWF KEEP TROF OVER THE WRN US. GFS IS QUICKEST TO WEAKEN THE              
TROF AND MOVE IT ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HANGS ENERGY           
BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA ON                   
THURSDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO WESTERLY                  
FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD MEAN A TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND                
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC LIGHT SNOWS POSSIBLE ALONG THE                  
CONTDVD REGION. -KT                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL                 
LIKELY DEVELOP FOR ALL TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS LATER THIS MORNING              
AND AFTERNOON. APPARENT ROTOR WILL BE AROUND KCOS THIS MORNING WITH             
THE WIND EXTREMELY VARIABLE SWITCHING FROM EASTERLY TO PERIOD                   
WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS BACK TO EASTERLY. METZE                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST                     
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061>064-067.                                                  
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY                 
FOR COZ058-060-066-068.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/31                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1032 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT            
WILL HEAD INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE COAST                  
TUESDAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND                  
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECOND LOW MAY FOLLOW FOR               
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
A 4000 FOOT CLOUD LAYER SPREAD ACROSS CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS THIS                 
EVENING WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST ALTOCU ABOVE IT. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS            
TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOWER DECK POSSIBLY SPREADING              
NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS.                                         
RADAR ECHOES ARE MAINLY MOVING FROM NORTHERN NY INTO VT-NH AND                  
STAYING NORTH OF US. SO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DRY FORECAST IN THE CARDS FOR           
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.                                                     
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND WINDS FROM THE 02Z RUC AND              
00Z NAM...BUT THE OVERALL SONG REMAINS THE SAME FROM PAST EDITIONS.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A CHANCE OF                 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.                        
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.             
OTHERWISE A MILD DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. A WIND                  
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY AFTERNOON WHERE              
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM THRESHOLD OF 27 KT.                
MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE                 
REGION. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR BEFORE                  
PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED BUT THEN DIVERGE                    
SIGNIFICANTLY BY END OF WEEK. SO CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY              
IN PERIOD...THEN DROPS CONSIDERABLY BY FRI AND NEXT WEEKEND.                    
BEYOND TUE...TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...             
* LIGHT SNOW/ICING POSSIBLE INLAND WED MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN          
* ANOTHER WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE INLAND LATE THU INTO FRI                          
TUE - WED...                                                                    
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE TUE. 12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER THAN             
12Z NAM IN ENDING PRECIPITATION TUE AFTERNOON FROM N TO S...AND IT              
ALSO FARTHER S WITH FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS A            
BIT STRONGER. DESPITE BEING PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND PRESENCE OF              
RIDGE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST...WE PREFER FASTER GFS SOLUTION WHICH              
HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH SREFS AND GEFS. THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN                
HIGHEST POPS TUE MORNING BEFORE INDICATING DRYING TREND LATER IN DAY.           
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SW NH BY DAYS           
END.                                                                            
PTYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE NORTH OF MASS PIKE AS COLDER AIR FILTERS              
IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ICING FROM SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...BUT                
COLUMN SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE IF             
ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH.                                            
BASED UPON GFS AND SREF/GEFS...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUE                
NIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AS FLOW            
SHIFTS TO NE...BUT THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE COLDER AIR AT LOW LEVELS.           
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS IN TOWARD WED MORNING ACROSS CT VALLEY BUT                  
ENSEMBLES SAY WE WILL REMAIN DRY PRIOR TO 12Z WED.                              
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD REGION WED MORNING. PLENTY OF             
WARMING OCCURS ALOFT WITH BROAD SW FLOW...HOWEVER WITH NE FLOW IN               
PLACE AT SURFACE IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR COLD TO ERODE...                    
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM COAST. SREF DATA IS NOT HITTING FREEZING RAIN              
POTENTIAL VERY HARD INLAND...ASIDE FROM FAR WESTERN MA AND FAR SW NH            
BUT EVEN THERE PROBABILITIES ARE RELATIVELY LOW. WE THINK THERE WILL            
BE A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WED...STARTING FIRST             
ALONG COASTAL PLAIN IN MORNING THEN INLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT              
LOOKING FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING AT THIS POINT BUT SOME LIGHT ICING IS             
POSSIBLE /UNDER 0.25 INCH/. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO AT            
MOST.                                                                           
EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN WED EVENING AS SYSTEM HEADS OFFSHORE.                     
THU - SAT...                                                                    
RELIED HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES PER HPC REASONING. 12Z GFS REMAINS WAY              
TOO FAST IN BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NORTHEAST AND WE PREFER                
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. ONCE PREVIOUS SYSTEM HEADS OFFSHORE THU...NEXT                
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES FRI MORNING             
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE REACHING              
MARITIMES SAT.                                                                  
THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS...               
ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT...BUT AGAIN WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE           
ENOUGH COLD TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS INTERIOR TO SUPPORT SNOW OR            
A WINTRY MIX AT ONSET LATE THU/EARLY FRI. SINCE LOW SHOULD TRACK TO             
OUR N FRI...WARMER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AND FORCE A CHANGE             
TO RAIN IN ALL LOCATIONS. IN FACT GMOS SHOWS TEMPERATURES CLIMBING              
WELL INTO 40S AND 50S FRI AFTERNOON.                                            
FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEAN...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT              
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT            
FOR STORMINESS ADVERTISED ON 12Z GFS FOR NEXT SUN.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
OVERNIGHT...3000 TO 4000 FOOT CEILINGS EXPECTED ALONG/SOUTH OF BAF-             
ORH-BOS OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS SEEM LESS LIKELY AND WILL BE SCALED BACK.           
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS KBDL/KBAF/KORH/KMHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS               
AFTER 20Z. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR KBOS/KPVD/KFMH/KHYA/KACK BEFORE              
LOWERING BACK TO MVFR AFTER 22Z. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT MON                
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR S COAST. ALTHOUGH NOT MEETING               
LLWS CRITERIA...VERY STRONG SW WINDS /45-50KT/ EXPECTED NEAR 2KFT               
MOST OF DAY.                                                                    
MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS             
IN -SHRA.                                                                       
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                             
TUE...IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR FROM N-S            
DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                           
TUE NIGHT-WED...CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF             
RAIN AND SNOW. POSSIBLE FZRA/PL INTERIOR WED MORNING...THEN AGAIN               
WED EVENING BEFORE ENDING.                                                      
THU AND FRI...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX           
POSSIBLE INLAND AT START.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN                  
ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO               
GUST TO 25 TO 30 KT PARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS COULD             
APPROACH 35 KT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.                                            
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                             
TUE...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. EXPECT WIND SHIFT TO              
N-NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.                       
TUE NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KT ON             
THE OUTER WATERS.                                                               
WED...WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AS WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GUSTS            
UP TO 25 KT CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL WATERS.                          
THU AND FRI...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED             
TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
MOST MAINSTEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND WILL FALL SLOWLY THROUGH MON.             
THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER IS CRESTING OVERNIGHT NEAR FLOOD STAGE. WE           
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS...BUT THE CREST             
DOES NOT SEEM HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WARNING.                                 
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD AND MIDDLETOWN WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD               
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING. ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA IS FORECAST           
TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER TONIGHT.                                        
RAINFALL LATE MON INTO TUE WILL AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH. THIS WOULD           
NOT CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RATHER SLOW              
THE RATE OF RECESSION.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
DUE TO CONTINUED POWER OUTAGE AT WORCESTER THROUGH LATE SATURDAY                
MORNING...PART OF THE DAYS OBSERVATIONS WERE MISSING.  SINCE WE HAVE            
NO BACKUP DATA AT THAT LOCATION...WE WENT WITH MISSING DATA FOR                 
TEMPS AND WINDS ON THE DAILY CLIMATE REPORT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE                 
OVERHEAD TODAY AND ALL OTHER STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION REPORTING NO            
PRECIP...LEFT A ZERO READING THERE AS WELL AS ZERO SNOW FOR 12/13.              
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-        
     254-255.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...STRAUSS/JWD                                                          
NEAR TERM...WTB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...WTB/STRAUSS                                                        
LONG TERM...JWD                                                                 
AVIATION...STRAUSS/JWD                                                          
MARINE...STRAUSS/JWD                                                            
HYDROLOGY...WTB                                                                 
CLIMATE...                                                                      
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
305 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
...UPDATED FOR CHANGE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STATUS...                         
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING            
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN                
SEABOARD. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WE FIND A SERIES              
OF STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION            
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE                  
LEADING IMPULSE WE ARE FINDING A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                    
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT               
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.               
MUCH OF WISCONSIN CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE                
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE LOCATIONS BACK ACROSS MN ARE SEEING            
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO WITH             
STRONG NORTH FLOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UNDERWAY.                             
CLOSER TO HOME...SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS RIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS                
MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. NO LACK OF UPPER                
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FLOW. WE WILL             
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH PERIODS              
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN            
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM WEATHER WILL              
REMAIN FAR TO OUR NORTH.                                                        
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN REGION OF SOUTHEAST                
FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A                
STRONG COLD FRONT RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE              
COUNTRY. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST.                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                   
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLOUDS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB OF BREAKING UP TO                 
PRODUCE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH               
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS PULLING BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE                 
APALACHICOLA RIVER. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH OF THIS            
LOWER TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD REDEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE              
WEST. THIS IS A TRICKY SKY FORECAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH THE            
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE...WILL ONCE AGAIN GO WITH THE STRATUS                   
DEVELOPMENT EVEN FOR PLACES THAT HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SUN THIS                  
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OUR WEST HAS RESULTED            
IN A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY OVER TOWARD MOBILE. AS A WEAK                  
MID-LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE PROGGED BY THE GFS/NAM APPROACHES             
LATER TONIGHT THESE SCT SHOWERS MAY TRY TO MOVE A BIT FURTHER EAST              
AND HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PANAMA               
CITY TO DOTHAN AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                  
TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS             
UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT RUNS INTO A            
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.                
THIS FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR WESTERN                
AND NORTHERN ZONES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW            
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONT              
COMBINES WITH THE CONTINUED SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING THE             
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE ORIENTATION OF THE IMPULSES SUGGEST THE BEST               
CHANCES TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS WALTON COUNTY            
INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG                
DEAL WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AND WILL KEEP POPS             
LOW. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TYPE OF RAINFALL THAT WOULD HAVE AN                   
ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON THE RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR FLOOD             
STAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES.                                        
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE WATCHING A STRONG PIECE OF UPPER           
LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL              
RESULT IN AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. IN                      
RESPONSE...SHOULD SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO              
OUR SOUTH UP INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST. OLD FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH INTO THE                 
TENNESSEE VALLEY...TAKING THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS              
WITH IT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF AND OUR FORECAST AREA              
BY THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS TAKING ON ALMOST A                       
SUMMER-LIKE APPEARANCE WITH A STRONG 590DM H5 RIDGE BUILDING                    
OVERHEAD AND SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF              
OF THE FL PENINSULA.                                                            
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.            
TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND THE                
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND                 
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EVEN EDGE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FAR                 
NORTHWEST AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE. ONLY OTHER                     
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF FRANKLIN AND                   
WAKULLA COUNTIES WHERE THE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF             
APALACHEE BAY WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD                 
MIDDLE 70S ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM                 
THE COAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE                
THE MAIN WX PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE            
AMPLIFIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DRY OUT AND                
WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AWAY FROM             
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.                                                            
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH                  
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PUSHING A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT THROUGH THE                  
REGION SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS                
WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING             
BACK BELOW CLIMO.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT                  
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING            
FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING               
ACROSS THE WESTERN MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER SEAS ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND            
AND WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN LEGS INTO              
THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...BOATERS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE               
CAUTION ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES AS WIND AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED                
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING            
MONDAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO BEGIN TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE WINDS AND            
SEAS FALL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA DURING MONDAY...AND THEN REMAIN               
LOW INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT AS MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMS IN FROM            
THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING AND IFR CIGS AND                
VISBY BY EARLY MORNING ALL TERMINALS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THERE WILL             
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP RH LEVELS WELL               
OUT OF CRITICAL RANGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE               
SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE MANY SWOLLEN RIVERS ACROSS THE WESTERN               
AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RIVERS AND            
LAKES AHPS WEB PAGE (HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE) FOR            
THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS. THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND            
FLOOD STATEMENTS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT THIS SITE AND ON NOAA WEATHER             
RADIO.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  52  74  55  75  56 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
PANAMA CITY  58  72  59  73  61 /  10  25  10  10  10                           
DOTHAN       52  70  55  74  58 /  20  30  10  20  20                           
ALBANY       50  72  54  75  57 /  10  20  10  10  10                           
VALDOSTA     52  74  54  75  55 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
CROSS CITY   52  77  54  78  55 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL             
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60            
     NM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GOREE                                                   
LONG TERM...CAMP                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
305 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING            
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN                
SEABOARD. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WE FIND A SERIES              
OF STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION            
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE                  
LEADING IMPULSE WE ARE FINDING A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                    
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT               
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.               
MUCH OF WISCONSIN CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE                
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE LOCATIONS BACK ACROSS MN ARE SEEING            
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO WITH             
STRONG NORTH FLOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UNDERWAY.                             
CLOSER TO HOME...SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS RIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS                
MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. NO LACK OF UPPER                
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FLOW. WE WILL             
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH PERIODS              
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN            
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM WEATHER WILL              
REMAIN FAR TO OUR NORTH.                                                        
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN REGION OF SOUTHEAST                
FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A                
STRONG COLD FRONT RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE              
COUNTRY. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST.                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                   
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLOUDS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB OF BREAKING UP TO                 
PRODUCE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH               
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS PULLING BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE                 
APALACHICOLA RIVER. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH OF THIS            
LOWER TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD REDEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE              
WEST. THIS IS A TRICKY SKY FORECAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH THE            
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE...WILL ONCE AGAIN GO WITH THE STRATUS                   
DEVELOPMENT EVEN FOR PLACES THAT HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SUN THIS                  
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OUR WEST HAS RESULTED            
IN A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY OVER TOWARD MOBILE. AS A WEAK                  
MID-LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE PROGGED BY THE GFS/NAM APPROACHES             
LATER TONIGHT THESE SCT SHOWERS MAY TRY TO MOVE A BIT FURTHER EAST              
AND HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PANAMA               
CITY TO DOTHAN AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                  
TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS             
UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT RUNS INTO A            
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.                
THIS FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR WESTERN                
AND NORTHERN ZONES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW            
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONT              
COMBINES WITH THE CONTINUED SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING THE             
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE ORIENTATION OF THE IMPULSES SUGGEST THE BEST               
CHANCES TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS WALTON COUNTY            
INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG                
DEAL WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AND WILL KEEP POPS             
LOW. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TYPE OF RAINFALL THAT WOULD HAVE AN                   
ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON THE RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR FLOOD             
STAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES.                                        
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE WATCHING A STRONG PIECE OF UPPER           
LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL              
RESULT IN AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. IN                      
RESPONSE...SHOULD SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO              
OUR SOUTH UP INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST. OLD FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH INTO THE                 
TENNESSEE VALLEY...TAKING THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS              
WITH IT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF AND OUR FORECAST AREA              
BY THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS TAKING ON ALMOST A                       
SUMMER-LIKE APPEARANCE WITH A STRONG 590DM H5 RIDGE BUILDING                    
OVERHEAD AND SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF              
OF THE FL PENINSULA.                                                            
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.            
TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND THE                
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND                 
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EVEN EDGE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FAR                 
NORTHWEST AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE. ONLY OTHER                     
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF FRANKLIN AND                   
WAKULLA COUNTIES WHERE THE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF             
APALACHEE BAY WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD                 
MIDDLE 70S ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM                 
THE COAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE                
THE MAIN WX PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE            
AMPLIFIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DRY OUT AND                
WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AWAY FROM             
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.                                                            
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH                  
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PUSHING A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT THROUGH THE                  
REGION SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS                
WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING             
BACK BELOW CLIMO.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT                  
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING            
FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY                
SUBSIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN MARINE ZONES AND WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT            
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM. HOWEVER...BOATERS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE             
CAUTION ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES AS WIND AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED                
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING            
MONDAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO BEGIN TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE WINDS AND            
SEAS FALL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA DURING MONDAY...AND THEN REMAIN               
LOW INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT AS MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMS IN FROM            
THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING AND IFR CIGS AND                
VISBY BY EARLY MORNING ALL TERMINALS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THERE WILL             
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP RH LEVELS WELL               
OUT OF CRITICAL RANGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE               
SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE MANY SWOLLEN RIVERS ACROSS THE WESTERN               
AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RIVERS AND            
LAKES AHPS WEB PAGE (HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE) FOR            
THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS. THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND            
FLOOD STATEMENTS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT THIS SITE AND ON NOAA WEATHER             
RADIO.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  52  74  55  75  56 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
PANAMA CITY  58  72  59  73  61 /  10  25  10  10  10                           
DOTHAN       52  70  55  74  58 /  20  30  10  20  20                           
ALBANY       50  72  54  75  57 /  10  20  10  10  10                           
VALDOSTA     52  74  54  75  55 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
CROSS CITY   52  77  54  78  55 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GOREE                                                   
LONG TERM...CAMP                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1045 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL LONGWAVE                      
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH LONGWAVE                   
RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN WESTERN            
TROUGH WE FIND A SERIES OF STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF            
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING IMPULSE WE ARE FINDING A POTENT AREA OF             
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. IMPRESSIVE                      
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST. SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA CURRENTLY RISING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S             
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE             
STATE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW ZERO WITH STRONG NORTH FLOW            
AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UNDERWAY.                                               
CLOSER TO HOME...SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS RIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS                
MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING. NO LACK            
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FLOW.            
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH              
ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM WEATHER REMAINING FAR TO OUR NORTH.             
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW             
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE SYSTEM            
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE              
INTO TONIGHT BRINGING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE                     
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
LATEST 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED             
UNDER 800MB RESULTING IN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 5 AND 7              
KFT. ABOVE 800MB THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE. DIFFICULT TO              
SAY JUST HOW MUCH DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS WE WILL SEE THROUGH               
THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN INTO THE             
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAKER DECEMBER SUN               
AND THE CONTINUED SUPPLY OF MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF              
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW              
WITH SOME LIFT FROM A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS RESULTING             
IN A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA TO MOBILE. NOT                
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR                 
PANHANDLE ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH REALLY NO IMPACT TO               
ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED. NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS              
TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS YET...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HOLD THROUGH THE               
DAY MAY COME UP A FEW DEGREES SHORT ON HIGHS.                                   
TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE              
IS UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST            
AND THEN STALLING THE FRONT JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN            
ZONES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS                 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONT COMBINES             
WITH THE CONTINUED SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING THE SOUTHERN             
STREAM. HOWEVER...THESE WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL WITH VERY LITTLE IN              
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW. CERTAINLY NOT                   
EXPECTING ENOUGH TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE RIVERS NEAR OR AT FLOOD               
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
EASTERN ZONES...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY                   
LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES LATE THIS MORNING.                       
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION             
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW                   
HEADLINE CRITERIA MONDAY.                                                       
WESTERN ZONES...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO CAUTIONARY                
LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE            
ANTICIPATED TO HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WELL                 
OFFSHORE. FOR THESE REASONS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN            
MARINE ZONES HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.                   
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SMALL                      
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS ELEVATED                 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
12Z TLH SOUNDING MEASURED SOUTHEAST WIND WIND FROM SURFACE TO 6 KFT             
WITH CLOUD DECK AT BASE OF INVERSION AT 6KFT. THIS INVERSION SHOULD             
LOWER WITH TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR                 
CRITERIA ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH IFR CIG            
AND VIS POSSIBLE DURING EARLY MORNING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER            
SUNRISE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL                 
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE MANY SWOLLEN RIVERS ACROSS THE WESTERN               
AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RIVERS AND            
LAKES AHPS WEB PAGE (HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE) FOR            
THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS. THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND            
FLOOD STATEMENTS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT THIS SITE AND ON NOAA WEATHER             
RADIO.                                                                          
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  66  51  74  57  76 /  10  10  20  20  20                           
PANAMA CITY  68  56  74  60  76 /  10  10  20  20  20                           
DOTHAN       63  53  69  57  75 /  10  10  30  20  20                           
ALBANY       62  51  72  54  76 /  10  10  20  20  20                           
VALDOSTA     64  51  74  55  76 /  10  10  20  20  20                           
CROSS CITY   72  52  77  55  78 /  10  10  20  20  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN                
     FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM                  
     20 TO 60 NM.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...MROCZKA                                                       
AVIATION...GOREE                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
225 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
...WARMING TREND IN STORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...                               
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING MAINLY ZONAL AND QUIET              
WEATHER ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THINGS ARE NOT AS QUIET                  
ELSEWHERE IN THE NATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DIGGING AND                   
EVOLVING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WV                 
IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DIGGING ACROSS            
IDAHO...MONTANA AND WYOMING. THIS IS A RATHER ENERGETIC SYSTEM WITH             
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP EARLIER TODAY NEAR NEAR SALT            
LAKE CITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL                
EJECT ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. VERY                 
LARGE AREA OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF AN TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE              
NOW UNDER WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD WARNINGS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WE              
FIND A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEEN                    
STREAMING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR SKIES TODAY.                         
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST                
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH RIDGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA             
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE                   
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT            
HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER NUDGES EASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.                
CURRENT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RISING SLOWLY THROUGH THE LOWER             
AND MIDDLE 50S UNDER THE FILTERED SUNSHINE.                                     
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                   
SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO              
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOVEMENT AND LOW PRESSURE               
ARRIVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER OUR               
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.                                               
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL                  
EJECT RAPIDLY EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER BEHIND                
THIS FEATURE WILL SEE A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES RIDING               
NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS/NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY.                 
STILL EXPECTING COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER NOT NEARLY AS               
COLD AS THIS PAST MORNING. SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE ARRIVING ON               
THE EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL                 
CIRRUS SHOULD PREVENT EVEN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS FROM APPROACHING               
THE FREEZING MARK. EVEN LEANING TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV                  
NUMBERS WILL RESULTS IN LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND            
40 INLAND AND MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.                             
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST AREA-WIDE FOR SUNDAY WITH A                    
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AT LEAST COMPARED TO                
TODAY). ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LEADING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE PASSING             
TO OUR NORTHWEST...WOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO                 
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. AS THIS IMPULSE             
PASSES BY WILL SEE A BROAD AREA OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDING                
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. LOOKING AT A WEST-EAST CROSS-SECTION OF THE             
AREA...GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT BELOW 500MB WITH THE                  
FORCING...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS STILL VERY DRY BETWEEN 850MB AND               
500MB. MOST GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT             
QPF ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT EVEN THESE               
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BE OVERDONE. BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES (DEEPER                  
MOISTURE) IS FURTHER WEST OVER TOWARD PENSACOLA/MOBILE THROUGH THE              
AFTERNOON AND WOULD EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS TO              
BE CONFINED TO THESE AREAS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW RAINDROPS                    
(SPRINKLES) INTO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE...HOWEVER IMPACTS WOULD               
BE VERY LIMITED OR NONE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WARMING TEMPERATURES            
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR CLIMO READING IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE            
60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. BIT COOLER TEMPS                    
(HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 60S) CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WAKULLA AND               
FRANKLIN COUNTY COASTS WITH THE STEADY FLOW OFF THE COOLER SHELF                
WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY.                                                        
PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MID-DECEMBER ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE               
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT              
IN LOW TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 50 FOR THE COLDEST INLAND                  
LOCATIONS AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.               
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND                  
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AGAIN ONLY A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ROLLING              
INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OFF THE GULF WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR                 
PASSING SHOWERS REMAINING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                            
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR MID-DEC                
ANTICIPATED. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL            
THROUGH THE DAY. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THIS FRONT STALLING NEAR OR JUST             
OUTSIDE OF OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. BY THIS                 
TIME...MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HAVE BEEN ERODED. THE                 
ADDED LOW LEVEL FOCUS FROM THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE MORE                  
FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL                 
BRING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS (SCT SHOWERS) BACK TO THE                   
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD BE GENERALLY                
OF THE LIGHT VARIETY WITH SMALL ACCUMULATIONS AND LIMITED IMPACTS               
TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE AIRMASS POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY WILL BE                 
QUITE WARM...AND WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THROUGH THE DAY             
TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY FAIL TO DROP                 
BELOW THE MIDDLE 50S FOR EVEN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED TO BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THAT             
OF THE LAST MONTH. THE MEAN EASTERN TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE              
WESTERN STATES WITH A GENERALLY FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE                
GULF OF MEXICO.                                                                 
TUESDAY WILL SEE A STRONG SFC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC                    
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE CWA. MAY SEE A             
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVEL                 
FLOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS.                          
BY WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE                
AMPLIFIES A BIT. THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE              
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE KEEPING FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED TO             
THE NORTH.                                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE              
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FORECAST WATERS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE                  
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF                
MEXICO. SEEING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER              
SOLID CAUTIONARY LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESUME THIS EVENING                 
AS FLOW CONTINUES TO SWING AROUND TO THE EAST. AS IS OFTEN                      
THE CASE WITH EASTERLY FLOW...EXPECTING A SLIGHT NOCTURNAL SURGE IN             
THE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A                 
TIME INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...                  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN LEGS. THEREAFTER ANTICIPATING A                     
CONTINUED PERIOD OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH                
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND THEN VEERS            
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND               
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY            
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AT AROUND 3 TO             
4 THOUSAND FEET SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TRI STATE                
AREA...WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AND            
GRADUALLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN EAST TO                
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. BY DAYBREAK...AREAS OF FOG AND MVFR                
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST                      
ALABAMA...SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.               
LOOKING AHEAD...A WARMER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE THE                   
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE NIGHT AND              
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE COMING WEEK.               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
INCREASING CLOUD COVER LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RED FLAG                 
WARNING FOR OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES WAS CANCELLED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.            
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN THE               
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA              
DURING THE COMING WEEK...AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED               
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  41  68  53  73  57 /  05  10  10  20  20                           
PANAMA CITY  47  68  59  70  61 /  10  10  20  30  20                           
DOTHAN       40  65  55  69  56 /  10  10  10  30  20                           
ALBANY       37  65  50  73  55 /  05  10  10  20  20                           
VALDOSTA     39  68  51  74  56 /  05  10  10  20  20                           
CROSS CITY   42  72  52  76  55 /  05  10  10  20  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST                  
     SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE            
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM                
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE                 
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DUVAL                                                   
LONG TERM...CAMP                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
...WARMING TREND IN STORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...                               
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING ZONAL AND QUIET WEATHER             
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING. THINGS ARE NOT AS QUIET             
ELSEWHERE IN THE NATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DIGGING AND                   
EVOLVING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WV                 
IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DIGGING                   
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/IDAHO AND MONTANA. THIS IS A RATHER                
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP NEAR              
SALT LAKE CITY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
TONIGHT. VERY LARGE AREA OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF AN TO THE NORTH OF             
THIS FEATURE NOW UNDER WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD WARNINGS. FURTHER               
DOWNSTREAM WE FIND A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF NEW             
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS             
STREAMING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL INVADE OUR SKIES INTO TONIGHT              
AND WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.                  
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES            
TO RIDGE BACK OVER OUR AREA. THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER               
THE RIDGE ALLOWED FOR MANY INLAND SPOTS TO REACH OR DROP A FEW                  
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. CURRENT                     
TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 AM ARE REBOUNDING BACK THROUGH THE 40S ON THEIR            
WAY TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NORTH AND UPPER              
50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE FOLLOWING ARE LOW TEMPS FROM A FEW                  
SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA:                                               
TALLAHASSEE...28 F                                                              
VALDOSTA...28 F                                                                 
ALBANY...28 F                                                                   
CROSS CITY...31 F                                                               
DOTHAN...31 F                                                                   
MARIANNA...31 F                                                                 
PERRY...32 F                                                                    
PANAMA CITY...36 F                                                              
APALACHICOLA...37 F                                                             
AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL BE LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY BUT                    
FILTERED SKIES THROUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE             
WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO              
SLIDE EAST REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING...AND THEN OFF              
THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH MOVING EAST              
AND LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLOWLY TURN              
OUR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24            
HOURS. WHILE STILL LOOKING AT VERY DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH             
THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR                 
SUNDAY WITH THE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY REGIME.                                  
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES RIDING NORTHEAST                 
ALONG THE TEXAS/NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL             
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO FINISH OFF               
THE WEEKEND. THIS PAST MORNING REPRESENTS THAT LAST SIGNIFICANT COLD            
AIR FOR A WHILE WITH A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS                 
BRINGING TEMPS BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER. LOW                     
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING REGION-WIDE WITH              
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 COMMON INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ALONG              
THE COAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND                
CLIMO WITH MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. THE              
TREND ONLY GETS WARMER INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FORECAST WATERS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGE              
EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.                   
CAUTIONARY LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST BY                
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH EASTERLY                
FLOW...EXPECTING A SLIGHT NOCTURNAL SURGE IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT                
AND APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME INTO SUNDAY MORNING.                 
THEREAFTER ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW                
INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE                                
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM              
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE            
EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST DURING               
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS             
TO REMAIN 3 TO 5 KNOTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE                    
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN              
TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN              
AN INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 4                  
THOUSAND FEET... THOUGH PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY                
AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY LEADING TO RED FLAG             
CONDITIONS OVER FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG              
WARNING. THEREAFTER...INCREASING MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW               
WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  59 40 67 53 72/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
PANAMA CITY  60 46 69 57 73/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
DOTHAN       55 40 65 52 71/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
ALBANY       57 37 64 51 72/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
VALDOSTA     58 39 67 52 73/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
CROSS CITY   62 42 74 54 75/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ UNTIL 6 PM EST                  
     /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL ZONES.                                   
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...MROCZKA                                                       
AVIATION...DUVAL                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID                                           
916 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...CENTER OF VERY DEEP COMPLEX LOW NEAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER              
OF FCST AREA THIS MORNING PER WV SAT IMAGERY. IR SHOWS DRAMATIC                 
DRY SLOW WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FCST AREA THROUGH CENTRAL MTNS                
ANT INTO THE EDGES OF THE SNAKE VALLEY. INSTABILITY CLOUDS/SHOWERS              
WORKING INTO CENTRAL MTNS BEHIND THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...DEEPER               
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN EDGES OF FCST AREA KEEPING SNOW IN PLACE                  
ALONG EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. SFC OBS                
SHOW WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER              
40 MPH PER MESOWEST DATA. THE SNOW THAT HAD FALLEN EARLIER                      
PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING PER AREA WEBCAMS. GIVEN                     
COMPLEX SCENARIO HAVE MADE THE FOLLOWING HEADLINE/GRID UPDATES.                 
HAVE DROPPED THE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES AND                     
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY. SHOULD SEE MAINLY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THERE               
TODAY WITH WINDS STICKING TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR THE SNAKE               
VALLEY...HAVE CHANGED WINTER WX ADVISORY TO SIMPLY A WIND                       
ADVISORY. WILL MENTION BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG INTERSTATE 15 WHERE               
MOST OF THE SNOW APPEARED TO HAVE FALLEN OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT REST              
OF THE MOUNTAIN ZONES IN WINTER STORM WARNINGS. THE EASTERN                     
HIGHLANDS CONTINUE TO SEE BOTH SNOW AND WIND TODAY...BUT THE ONLY               
STICKLER IS ZONE 22. SNOW HAS STOPPED AND THEY WILL BE DRY SLOTTED              
BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THERE WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW A HAZARD                    
PARTICULARLY FOR INTERSTATE 84. TEXT PRODUCT UPDATES FORTHCOMING. DMH           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS                  
ENTERED IDAHO AND IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. WEBCAMS                 
AROUND THE AREA SHOW SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR              
FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL             
MTNS THROUGH 5PM THIS EVENING AND ERN AND SRN HIGHLANDS CONTINUE                
THROUGH 5AM TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION...WINTER WX ADVISORY                  
WILL CONTINUE FOR SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THROUGH 11PM TONIGHT. LATEST                
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING FROM SW TO               
NE OVER BURLEY UP TO IDAHO FALLS PRODUCING SOME HEAVIER SNOW AND                
RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM-12 MODELS HIGHLIGHTING CHANGE IN               
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AS MOST OF MOISTURE PROGGED TO AFFECT ERN              
AND SRN HIGHLANDS WITH LESS SNOW AMTS OVER CENTRAL MTNS. UPPER                  
LEVEL LOW IS STILL OVER OR/WA BORDER...HOWEVER...AND WILL PRODUCE               
MORE SNOW FOR THE MTNS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES OFF TO THE E.                 
SNOW AMTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH 6 TO 12" OVER ALL MTN REGIONS              
AND 2 TO 4" ACROSS SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL USHER IN                
THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND ABOVE...MAX                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A               
NOSEDIVE ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS SEVERAL SITES INDICATED 10                 
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE OVER 1 HR PERIOD AFTER FROTNAL                       
PASSAGE...A STRONG FRONT TO SAY THE LEAST.                                      
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALL MODELS SHOWING               
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH SOME MODEST              
ASSOCIATED AREAS OF PRECIP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIKELY                
UNDER THESE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES. RENWICK                                  
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECM SHOW                  
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON                  
COAST AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO FORECAST                
AREA. FORECAST FOLLOWS TIMING OF THESE MODELS. NAM TIMING IS MUCH               
SLOWER. CONFIDENCE RUNNING HIGHER AND POPS WERE PUSHED A BIT                    
HIGHER...PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT ARCTIC                
DISTURBANCE DROPS OVER THE RIDGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO IDAHO BY                    
THURSDAY. THE 13/00Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH               
THE GFS DROPPING THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY              
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AND POPS               
WERE RAISED SOME HERE AS WELL. GFS 700 MB WINDS AND TEMPERATURES                
BRING FAIRLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO IDAHO TOO. DETAILS OF COLD BOX CAR              
AIR MASS MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO STILL A LITTLE FUZZY. HAVE              
NUDGED FORECAST TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN CONSERVATIVE                 
FASHION. RS                                                                     
AVIATION...AT 13/10Z SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST WEST OF KBYI WITH A             
FEW GUSTS TO THE MID 40 MPH RANGE NOTED ON MESONET SITES. FRONT                 
EXPECTED TO REACH KPIH BETWEEN 1100-1130Z. LATEST RUC UPDATE ENDS               
SNOW AT KIDA AND KPIH AFTER 15Z...ABOUT 3 HOURS QUICKER THAN                    
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST               
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z...BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT               
DECREASES PER THE NAM12. WINDS COULD HANG IN THERE A BIT LONGER AS              
THE SURFACE LOW HAS NOT MOVED EAST OF WYOMING JUST YET. PERSISTENT              
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER NIGHT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. NEXT                 
DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY                
AFTERNOON. RS                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-020-021.                   
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ019-023-               
025.                                                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ022-024.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID                                           
342 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS                 
ENTERED IDAHO AND IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. WEBCAMS                 
AROUND THE AREA SHOW SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR              
FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL             
MTNS THROUGH 5PM THIS EVENING AND ERN AND SRN HIGHLANDS CONTINUE                
THROUGH 5AM TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION...WINTER WX ADVISORY                  
WILL CONTINUE FOR SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THROUGH 11PM TONIGHT. LATEST                
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING FROM SW TO               
NE OVER BURLEY UP TO IDAHO FALLS PRODUCING SOME HEAVIER SNOW AND                
RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM-12 MODELS HIGHLIGHTING CHANGE IN               
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AS MOST OF MOISTURE PROGGED TO AFFECT ERN              
AND SRN HIGHLANDS WITH LESS SNOW AMTS OVER CENTRAL MTNS. UPPER                  
LEVEL LOW IS STILL OVER OR/WA BORDER...HOWEVER...AND WILL PRODUCE               
MORE SNOW FOR THE MTNS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES OFF TO THE E.                 
SNOW AMTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH 6 TO 12" OVER ALL MTN REGIONS              
AND 2 TO 4" ACROSS SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL USHER IN                
THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND ABOVE...MAX                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A               
NOSEDIVE ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS SEVERAL SITES INDICATED 10                 
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE OVER 1 HR PERIOD AFTER FROTNAL                       
PASSAGE...A STRONG FRONT TO SAY THE LEAST.                                      
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALL MODELS SHOWING               
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH SOME MODEST              
ASSOCIATED AREAS OF PRECIP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIKELY                
UNDER THESE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES. RENWICK                                  
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECM SHOW                 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON                  
COAST AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO FORECAST                
AREA. FORECAST FOLLOWS TIMING OF THESE MODELS. NAM TIMING IS MUCH               
SLOWER. CONFIDENCE RUNNING HIGHER AND POPS WERE PUSHED A BIT                    
HIGHER...PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT ARCTIC                
DISTURBANCE DROPS OVER THE RIDGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO IDAHO BY                    
THURSDAY. THE 13/00Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH               
THE GFS DROPPING THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY              
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AND POPS               
WERE RAISED SOME HERE AS WELL. GFS 700 MB WINDS AND TEMPERATURES                
BRING FAIRLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO IDAHO TOO. DETAILS OF COLD BOX CAR              
AIR MASS MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO STILL A LITTLE FUZZY. HAVE              
NUDGED FORECAST TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN CONSERVATIVE                 
FASHION. RS                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AT 13/10Z SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST WEST OF KBYI WITH A            
FEW GUSTS TO THE MID 40 MPH RANGE NOTED ON MESONET SITES. FRONT                 
EXPECTED TO REACH KPIH BETWEEN 1100-1130Z. LATEST RUC UPDATE ENDS               
SNOW AT KIDA AND KPIH AFTER 15Z...ABOUT 3 HOURS QUICKER THAN                    
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST               
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z...BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT               
DECREASES PER THE NAM12. WINDS COULD HANG IN THERE A BIT LONGER AS              
THE SURFACE LOW HAS NOT MOVED EAST OF WYOMING JUST YET. PERSISTENT              
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER NIGHT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. NEXT                 
DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY                
AFTERNOON. RS                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-                
020-021.                                                                        
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR IDZ019-023-025.                  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ022-024.               
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IDZ018-                  
031-032.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
205 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 130 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                               
ARCTIC COLD FRONT RACING EWD ACRS EAST CNTRL IOWA EARLY THIS AFTN               
AND THAT WILL BE OUR WX MAKER...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH               
PRECIP CHANCES...TYPES AND AMOUNTS TNT THE MAIN CONCERN. TEMPERATURES           
DROP OFF RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY             
TO BE SOME 25 TO 35 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. ALREADY SEEING AN                
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT              
IN NRN MO AND ERN IOWA...INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASING TREND IN                   
700-500 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS TREND WL CONTINUE INTO                 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR EAST AFTR MIDNIGHT.              
CONCERN ON MONDAY WL BE JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP ENDS...ESP IN               
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOME.                    
NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WL BE WITH SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN AMTS               
WITH TUESDAYS SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER SOUTHWEST WAVE PUSHING IN LATER             
ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDL PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE END               
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                          
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND LOCAL ARW MODEL WITH THE TIMING                
OF THE COLD FRONT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SO FAR...THE             
ARW MODEL HAS BEEN THE QUICKEST AND HAS BEEN VERIFYING THRU EARLY               
THIS AFTN. WITH THE INCRG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND            
THE ARCTIC BNDRY...EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS WELL               
AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING          
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES AS WELL...ESP ACRS THE SOUTHEAST LATER                  
THIS EVENING WITH HI RES MODELS SUGGESTING SOME BANDING OF THE                  
PRECIP PSBL EARLY THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER WITH               
THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...ESP ACRS              
THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR GETS                 
INTO THE AREA. BASED ON TIMING OF THE CURRENT POSITION (18Z) OF                 
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS START TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY IN THE                
WEST ARND 00Z AND NEAR THE I-55 CORRIDOR ARND 03Z WITH COUNTIES                 
ACRS THE SOUTHEAST SEEING THE BNDRY ENTER THEIR AREA JUST AFTR                  
06Z. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE              
THE RAIN GOES OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...AND THEN TO SLEET AND SNOW                
BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LATE THIS               
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING FOR AROUND A TENTH OF AN              
INCH OF ICE WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SE BY DAWN MONDAY WITH NEAR               
OR SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WEST OF I-55. QUITE A CHANGE IN 24 HOURS!                
BASED ON THE EXPECTED FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT              
INTO THE MONDAY MRNG RUSH HOUR...HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER                
ADVSY FOR LIGHT ICING THAT WILL EXTEND INTO MONDAY MRNG.                        
MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING               
A TOUGH TIME GETTING OUT OF THE TEENS IN THE NW. HAVE TRENDED TWDS              
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW. MODELS INSIST THE PRECIP                  
SHIELD SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TMRW AFTN BUT IT WL               
BE CLOSE FOR OUR I-70 COUNTIES. HOWEVER...BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING            
WITH THE FRONTAL MOVMENT THIS AFTN OUT TO OUR WEST...FEEL THE ARW               
SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE NAM DOES BRING ANOTHER            
WAVE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW INTO SE IL BY LATE TMRW AFTN AND EVE.            
FOR NOW WL KEEP THE PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING.           
NEXT WAVE WL TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN               
TO SWING NE INTO THE MIDWEST. IMPRESSIVE ISENT LIFT NOTED ON THE                
295K SFC WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 4 TO 6 G/KG UPSTREAM FROM OUR AREA.              
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM SPEED WL HELP TO CUT BACK ON THE                
SNOW AMTS ACRS OUR NORTH AND NW...WHILE WARMER THERMAL PROFILES TO              
THE SOUTH SUGGEST MORE OF A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN               
ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TUE EVENING. SNOWFALL AMTS               
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT...MAINLY NORTH OF                
A RUSHVILLE TO PEORIA TO LACON LINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN                  
TRENDING A BIT WARMER OVR THE PAST FEW RUNS...ESP ACRS THE CNTRL                
AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED MORE TWDS A MIX                    
RATHER THAN STRAIGHT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS.                                       
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
ACTIVE WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WITH                       
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE PERIOD. NEXT SOUTHWEST WAVE              
WL AFFECT OUR AREA THU AND FRIDAY WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP AT                 
THE ONSET...WITH MODELS TRENDING WARMER WITH THE SFC LOW FCST                   
TO TRACK RIGHT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATING              
+10 850 TEMPS ACRS OUR SOUTH BY THU AFTN AND EVENING. DEPENDING                 
ON HOW QUICKLY THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS                  
WEEK WL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SIGNIFICANT ICING OR JUST               
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...WL INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN DURING                
THE MORNING...AND THEN GRDLY TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO                   
NORTH DURING THE DAY BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF SFC LOW TRACK.                   
AFTER THE THU AND FRI SYSTEM...ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE                 
WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND                
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH GUID                 
INDICATING -15 TO -20 DEG C AT 850 MB LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1135 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                              
TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND/WEATHER IS THE                  
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE 18Z TAFS.                                                   
FRONT HAS PICKED UP SPEED THIS MORNING AND WAS ALREADY MOVING                   
INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AWIPS TIME-OF-                    
ARRIVAL TOOL HAS IT REACHING KPIA AROUND 00Z...KSPI/KBMI AROUND                 
02Z...KDEC 04Z AND KCMI 05Z. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE RUC AND              
ARW-20 MODELS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL START OUT AS              
SOME DRIZZLE...THEN PICK UP IN INTENSITY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING                 
SLIGHTLY. RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN               
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR                 
2-3 HOURS...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. WESTERN TERMINALS OF                       
KSPI/KPIA SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LARGELY TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE.                     
KEPT MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.                  
PIREP FROM KMLI AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM KBMI STILL INDICATE                  
WINDS OF 60-70 KNOTS ONLY ABOUT 2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE                  
FULL EFFECTS OF THIS HAVENT BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN WITH THE                      
INVERSION STILL IN PLACE...BUT SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KNOT                  
RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY              
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD                      
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.                                                             
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST                      
MONDAY FOR ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.                                          
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ILZ038-042>046-                   
051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.                                                
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST                      
MONDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050.                                  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST                      
MONDAY FOR ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1138 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1104 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                              
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO                 
MONDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW                  
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING FASTER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED...HAVING            
ALREADY PASSED DES MOINES AND KANSAS CITY BY 10 AM. FRONT SHOULD                
BE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD SUNSET...REACHING              
I-55 AROUND 00Z AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AROUND 08Z. UPSTREAM OBS              
SHOWING CURRENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS              
AND TEENS...WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE              
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH SOME TWEAKING              
OF THE MONDAY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT THE                  
HOULRY TRENDS.                                                                  
LATEST NAM-12 MODEL SHOWING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE MOST                   
WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT WEST              
OF I-55. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A TRANSITION TO FREEZING                 
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HOURS BETWEEN THE                    
LIQUID RAIN AND THE SNOW. AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND                 
LOWER 50S TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE GROUND LARGELY WARM ENOUGH FROM                 
ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN ON THE GROUND                 
FROM EARLIER WILL QUICKLY FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN                      
PLUNGING 20-30 DEGREES WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1135 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                              
TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND/WEATHER IS THE                  
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE 18Z TAFS.                                                   
FRONT HAS PICKED UP SPEED THIS MORNING AND WAS ALREADY MOVING                   
INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AWIPS TIME-OF-                    
ARRIVAL TOOL HAS IT REACHING KPIA AROUND 00Z...KSPI/KBMI AROUND                 
02Z...KDEC 04Z AND KCMI 05Z. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE RUC AND              
ARW-20 MODELS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL START OUT AS              
SOME DRIZZLE...THEN PICK UP IN INTENSITY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING                 
SLIGHTLY. RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN               
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR                 
2-3 HOURS...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. WESTERN TERMINALS OF                       
KSPI/KPIA SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LARGELY TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE.                     
KEPT MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.                  
PIREP FROM KMLI AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM KBMI STILL INDICATE                  
WINDS OF 60-70 KNOTS ONLY ABOUT 2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE                  
FULL EFFECTS OF THIS HAVENT BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN WITH THE                      
INVERSION STILL IN PLACE...BUT SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KNOT                  
RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY              
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD                      
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.                                                             
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ILZ038-042>046-                   
051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
831 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN CONCERN ATTM IS PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WHICH OCCURRED               
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER ERN IA/NW IL THIS EVE. FORCING FOR POST                   
FRONTAL PRECIP APPEARS TO BE A WK SHRTWV OVER NE FROM NEB/WRN IA                
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO WI OVERNIGHT PROVIDING LESS POST              
FRONTAL PRECIP IN OUR AREA. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY 18Z NAM AND              
21Z RUC WHICH BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS HEAVY POST FRONTAL PRECIP                  
WILL NOT TRANSLATE EWD INTO OUR CWA. STILL GIVEN ONGOING ZR                     
OCCURRING BEHIND FRONT...FELT IT WAS WORTH ADDING A MENTION IN THE              
ZFP/GRIDS FOR WRN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS WINDS WHICH              
HAVE BEEN BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT SO FAR. TEMPS                 
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER MIXING OVERNIGHT             
THAN OCCURRED TODAY. FROPA SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE MIXING AND WITH              
WOLCOTT PROFILER SHOWING 65KT IN LOWEST GATE AT 01Z AM RELUCTANT                
TO DROP ADVISORY AND RATHER OPTED TO CONT IT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS                 
MADE TO TEMPS FOR CONTD SLOW RISING TREND UNTIL FROPA WHEN IN A PD              
OF 3-6HRS TEMPS SHOULD CRASH FROM U40S/L50S TO M-U20S.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. A STRONG CDFNT WAS MOVING                  
INTO WRN IL THIS EVE. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS                  
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SFC GUSTS TO 35KT AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH                  
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF                
THE FRONT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT...WITH                
OCNL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN ADVANCE OF THAT. CDFNT EXPECTED TO                
MOVE THROUGH SBN AROUND 09Z AND FWA 12Z. SOME FREEZING RAIN AND                 
SLEET BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER ERN IA ATTM. MODELS                  
INDICATING LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO                   
PREVENT ZR BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS INTO NRN INDIANA...JUST                   
CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF A PD OF POST FRONTAL SLEET AND SNOW                   
ATTM. LITTLE SNOW ACCUM EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN RAPIDLY                  
AND DID IMPROVE VSBYS A LITTLE QUICKER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN                    
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE...THOUGH MVFR STRATO CU DECK WILL LIKELY LINGER               
THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE                
INVERSION IN SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS.                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                   
STRONG COLD FRONT...NOW EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTH                  
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND                   
SHOULD REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY               
MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH              
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RE- DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF              
THE FRONT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE EXPECTED FROM THE                      
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW                     
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY LOWER                 
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.                                                       
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE WILL BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH THIS             
FORECAST. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A                  
TRANSITION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. RAIN HAS BRIEFLY CHANGED             
TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. THIS TREND              
SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...            
WE SHOULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO WINDOW WHERE THERE IS SOME FREEZING                
RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. AT THIS             
TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION            
.SO NO ADVISORY IS NEEDED. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR                   
LATER TRENDS.                                                                   
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN A LITTLE            
BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN BACK UP AS THE FRONT                 
APPROACHES. WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. ALSO...THERE COULD            
BE A TIME OF BLOWING SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE GRADIENT                  
RELAXES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                         
.WINTRY MIX LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...                                  
AT THIS POINT NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO LONG TERM GRIDS WITH ACTIVE               
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON               
THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF THE LONG TERM. FAST MOVING WAVE WILL                
MOVE ARRIVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP LIKELY RAPIDLY               
INCREASING TOWARDS EVENING. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT AND EXPANDED                
TO COVER THIS TREND. HAVE LEFT MIX BAG IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT               
INTO EARLY WEDS. MODELS ALL SHOW A TONGUE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING              
IN TO AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SE QUARTER TO THIRD.                
SOME TRENDS OF MODELS SUGGESTING THAT WARM AIR MAY SNEAK FURTHER                
NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE 9Z SREF MEMBERS HAS TRANSITION AREA                  
FROM PERU TO WARSAW TO SOUTH OF HILLSDALE WHERE A BIT OF                        
EVERYTHING MAY OCCUR...MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR              
HEADLINE SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SE. AT THIS POINT ENOUGH                
GOING ON PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW THIS               
EVOLVES SO WILL MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE HWO TO INCREASE AWARENESS              
A BIT MORE.                                                                     
AFTER THIS PERIOD THINGS BECOME EVEN MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH NEXT                
WAVE TO ARRIVE LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS AND THURS NGT. MODELS VARY              
EVEN MORE THAN WITH FIRST MENTIONED SYSTEM WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING               
FROM SNOW FOR THE AREA...TO A MIXED BAG TO TEMPS WELL ABOVE                     
FREEZING AND RAIN FOR THE AREA. AS A RESULT NO CHANGES MADE IN                  
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM.                                                         
YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST MAY ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD                   
RESULTING A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT                    
PRECIP. WITH THE PATTERN SO CHAOTIC RIGHT NOW...FELT HOLDING A                  
DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WAS IN ORDER.                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-            
     012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                               
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>081.                       
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-           
     016-024-025.                                                               
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...REHBEIN                                                            
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                               
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1135 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.UPDATE /TODAY/...                                                              
COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKER THAN SCHEDULED THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS               
RESULTED IN A COUPLE OF UPDATE CYCLES THIS MORNING. THE LEADING                 
EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS NOW FROM NEAR MASON CITY TO MARSHALLTOWN              
TO CORYDON. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND              
STRATUS FILLS IN. FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS                
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH                 
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 25 TO 30 DEGREES IN THE HOUR               
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THEN CONTINUE A SLOWER DROP THROUGH                    
TONIGHT. DUE TO FASTER ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
NORTHWEST IOWA...HAD TO MAKE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT EARLIER              
THAN PREVIOUS HEADLINE INDICATED. HAVE GONE WITH A START TIME OF                
NOON FOR NORTHWEST TIER...AND 6 PM FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE                
EAST OF THAT. ALL OTHER HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
EVOLUTION OF TEMPS/DEWPOINT...WIND AND PRECIP POTENTIAL OBVIOUSLY               
MAIN QUESTIONS TODAY.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS OF THIS                
STRENGTH...MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING TEMP GRADIENT WELL ON EITHER END            
OF THE EXTREME.  NAM AND ESPECIALLY RUC ARE DOING THE BEST AND WILL             
BE FOLLOWED.  THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY                      
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF FROPA...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREA                    
15-21Z...AND COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND.  WITH SHARPLY                      
INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC MAX BEHIND SYSTEM...EXPECT             
WINDS TO JUST ECLIPSE SUSTAINED 30 MPH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EARLY EVE SO WIND ADVY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SMALL PARTS OF WRN/NW              
SECTIONS.  WITH COLD AIR SURGE AND MIXED LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW /500M/            
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT WITH GUSTS.                                   
MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SPITTING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THIS MUST BE FROM SHALLOW MOISTURE AS                  
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE ABOVE 2KM.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN                 
HOWEVER BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN EMPHATIC DEVELOPING THIS LOW                   
STRATUS BUT NO SIGNS YET...CIGS STILL 2500FT OR HIGHER.  CONSIDERING            
40+ DEWPOINTS ARE SURGING INTO IA...STILL EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN BUT             
MAY TAKE LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THUS STILL HAVE CHANCE/LOW END             
LIKELY POPS...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MEASURABLE DRIZZLE MORE THAN            
RAIN.  P-TYPE MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT FRZG RAIN OR FRZG DRZL BEHIND                 
FROPA AND THEN POSSIBLY TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS DENDRITIC MOISTURE            
INCREASES BEHIND FRONT.  DGZ WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...NO HIGHER THAN             
1.5KM BY LATE AFTERNOON.  QPF VERY MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT                    
CONCERNS OR HEADLINES IN THAT REGARD.                                           
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TO BE NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT              
BUT PLENTY OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT AS IT PASSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO              
HINT AT A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH                
SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN H750-H600. FORCING AND QPF                 
COMBINED SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH                
OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS              
ALREADY PICKING UP BY THEN...SO WILL BE LOOKING AT RATHER POOR                  
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME THERE WITH LOW VSBYS AND BLOWING SNOW.              
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR POTENTIAL NOW GIVEN THE NUMBER OF              
OTHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...DAY SHIFT WILL              
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE LATER                
TODAY. NEXT CONCERN IS THE WIND CHILL FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SETTLING              
IN ON COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH H850 TEMPS BRUSHING -20C ACROSS                
THE FAR NORTH/EURO AND EVEN COLDER/GFS. UPSTREAM READINGS OF -10F               
OR LOWER TONIGHT WHERE -20C WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS               
LATE LAST NIGHT. FEEL MORE CONFIDENT WITH MINS OF NEARLY -10F                   
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND NEARING ZERO CENTRAL. WINDS WILL MIX               
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS AND SUSTAINED 25              
TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL PULL WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -20F OR LOWER FROM                
HIGHWAY 92 NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY. NORTH OF HIGHWAY                  
20...AM EXPECTING WIND CHILL READINGS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA                  
MOST OF MONDAY AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY THERE ALL DAY.                      
SUBSIDENCE RATHER STRONG AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN                   
CLEARING MOST AREAS AS HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS               
MONDAY WILL MIX BUT DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE RIDGE FILES                  
THROUGH THE AREA. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE VERY COLD...ONLY IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED                 
MONDAY NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL CAP                   
DROP-OFF WEST AND SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW                  
PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS WAVES               
PROPAGATING EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A DECENT                         
OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR TUESDAY FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS.                   
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE WITH QUICK MOVING H500 WAVE AND                 
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H850 WITH 20 TO 25KT WINDS WILL                    
PROMOTE A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY. CURRENT                   
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR                 
ISSUE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY NEG EPV VALUES ARE FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH              
THAT...SNOWFALL RATIOS OF 17:20:1 AND MODEST LIFT IN THE SNOW                   
GROWTH ZONE DURING THE DAY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE MODERATE TO                      
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN EARLY AM HOURS                    
SOUTHWEST...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.                     
MOISTURE AMOUNTS POINTING TOWARD .25 TO                                         
.40 MAX...SO SNOWFALL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. THE EURO HAS BEEN MOST                
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST TWO DAYS. WIND DOES NOT LOOK              
TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR NOW...BUT MAY IMPACT BLOWING TO SOME                   
DEGREE. IF THIS ISNT ENOUGH FOR NOW ...MODELS EJECT ANOTHER SYSTEM              
TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY MIDWEEK THE DEEP COLD AIR MASS OVER             
THE REGION HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOMEWHAT NORTH. THIS WILL SET THE                 
STAGE FOR A MIXED EVENT ON THURSDAY. EURO IS STILL COLDER THAN THE              
GFS WHICH MAY BE SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH THE DISPLACEMENT            
OF THE COLD AIR. BOTH GFS AND EURO SUGGEST STRONG H850 MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT WITH THE GULF PRETTY MUCH WIDE OPEN. TOO EARLY TO WORRY               
ABOUT AMOUNTS...BUT THE SOUTH MAY EXPERIENCE A FZRA/SN MIX WHILE                
CENTRAL AND AREAS NORTH APPEAR TO BE ALL SNOW. EURO A BIT MORE                  
GENEROUS ON QPF WITH .50 TO .75 FOR THE 14/00Z RUN WHILE THE GFS IS             
CLOSER TO .25 TO .50 AT 14/00Z. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE              
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE STRENGTH              
OF THE WIND FIELD. PLENTY OF TIME TO TRACK THIS EVENT LATER...BUT               
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT. INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER SHOT              
OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL            
FORECAST AIRMASS...WEEKEND MAX AND MINS WILL PROBABLY NEED MODEST               
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ONCE SNOW COVER IS REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA              
AND DEPTH BECOMES REALIZED BY REPORTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...14/12Z                                                              
AVIATION CONCERNS NOW TURN TO STRONG WINDS...AND SECONDARILY THE                
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. COLD FRONT WILL BE THRU ALO AND OTM               
RIGHT AROUND 18Z. ALL TAF SITES WILL THEN BE IN STRONG WNW FLOW WITH            
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS AND GUSTS 28 TO 35 KTS THRU                
12Z. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT AND FINE                   
SNOWFALL...EXCEPT AT KOTM WHERE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF 4 TO 5                
HOURS THIS EVENING AS FORCING INCREASES ENOUGH TO LIKELY PRODUCE                
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LOW             
CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL BE IN THIS SNOW. HAVE LEFT THEM IN MVFR FOR              
NOW. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 11Z WITH DIMINISHING WIND.                             
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST MONDAY                   
FOR ADAIR-BLACK HAWK-CASS-DALLAS-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-                  
MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN.                       
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUDUBON-CALHOUN-                  
CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-                         
POCAHONTAS-SAC.                                                                 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST MONDAY                  
FOR AUDUBON-BOONE-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-WEBSTER.                              
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR EMMET-PALO ALTO-                  
POCAHONTAS.                                                                     
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY                   
FOR CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-                    
WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                                   
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR                
BREMER-BUTLER.                                                                  
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-                 
CRAWFORD-SAC.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MOYER                                                                  
SHORT TERM...SMALL                                                              
LONG TERM...REV                                                                 
AVIATION...MOYER                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1052 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.UPDATE /TODAY/...                                                              
COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKER THAN SCHEDULED THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS               
RESULTED IN A COUPLE OF UPDATE CYCLES THIS MORNING. THE LEADING                 
EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS NOW FROM NEAR MASON CITY TO MARSHALLTOWN              
TO CORYDON. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND              
STRATUS FILLS IN. FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS                
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH                 
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 25 TO 30 DEGREES IN THE HOUR               
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THEN CONTINUE A SLOWER DROP THROUGH                    
TONIGHT. DUE TO FASTER ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
NORTHWEST IOWA...HAD TO MAKE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT EARLIER              
THAN PREVIOUS HEADLINE INDICATED. HAVE GONE WITH A START TIME OF                
NOON FOR NORTHWEST TIER...AND 6 PM FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE                
EAST OF THAT. ALL OTHER HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
EVOLUTION OF TEMPS/DEWPOINT...WIND AND PRECIP POTENTIAL OBVIOUSLY               
MAIN QUESTIONS TODAY.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS OF THIS                
STRENGTH...MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING TEMP GRADIENT WELL ON EITHER END            
OF THE EXTREME.  NAM AND ESPECIALLY RUC ARE DOING THE BEST AND WILL             
BE FOLLOWED.  THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY                      
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF FROPA...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREA                    
15-21Z...AND COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND.  WITH SHARPLY                      
INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC MAX BEHIND SYSTEM...EXPECT             
WINDS TO JUST ECLIPSE SUSTAINED 30 MPH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EARLY EVE SO WIND ADVY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SMALL PARTS OF WRN/NW              
SECTIONS.  WITH COLD AIR SURGE AND MIXED LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW /500M/            
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT WITH GUSTS.                                   
MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SPITTING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THIS MUST BE FROM SHALLOW MOISTURE AS                  
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE ABOVE 2KM.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN                 
HOWEVER BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN EMPHATIC DEVELOPING THIS LOW                   
STRATUS BUT NO SIGNS YET...CIGS STILL 2500FT OR HIGHER.  CONSIDERING            
40+ DEWPOINTS ARE SURGING INTO IA...STILL EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN BUT             
MAY TAKE LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THUS STILL HAVE CHANCE/LOW END             
LIKELY POPS...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MEASURABLE DRIZZLE MORE THAN            
RAIN.  P-TYPE MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT FRZG RAIN OR FRZG DRZL BEHIND                 
FROPA AND THEN POSSIBLY TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS DENDRITIC MOISTURE            
INCREASES BEHIND FRONT.  DGZ WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...NO HIGHER THAN             
1.5KM BY LATE AFTERNOON.  QPF VERY MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT                    
CONCERNS OR HEADLINES IN THAT REGARD.                                           
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TO BE NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT              
BUT PLENTY OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT AS IT PASSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO              
HINT AT A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH                
SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN H750-H600. FORCING AND QPF                 
COMBINED SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH                
OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS              
ALREADY PICKING UP BY THEN...SO WILL BE LOOKING AT RATHER POOR                  
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME THERE WITH LOW VSBYS AND BLOWING SNOW.              
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR POTENTIAL NOW GIVEN THE NUMBER OF              
OTHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...DAY SHIFT WILL              
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE LATER                
TODAY. NEXT CONCERN IS THE WIND CHILL FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SETTLING              
IN ON COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH H850 TEMPS BRUSHING -20C ACROSS                
THE FAR NORTH/EURO AND EVEN COLDER/GFS. UPSTREAM READINGS OF -10F               
OR LOWER TONIGHT WHERE -20C WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS               
LATE LAST NIGHT. FEEL MORE CONFIDENT WITH MINS OF NEARLY -10F                   
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND NEARING ZERO CENTRAL. WINDS WILL MIX               
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS AND SUSTAINED 25              
TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL PULL WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -20F OR LOWER FROM                
HIGHWAY 92 NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY. NORTH OF HIGHWAY                  
20...AM EXPECTING WIND CHILL READINGS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA                  
MOST OF MONDAY AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY THERE ALL DAY.                      
SUBSIDENCE RATHER STRONG AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN                   
CLEARING MOST AREAS AS HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS               
MONDAY WILL MIX BUT DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE RIDGE FILES                  
THROUGH THE AREA. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE VERY COLD...ONLY IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED                 
MONDAY NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL CAP                   
DROP-OFF WEST AND SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW                  
PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS WAVES               
PROPAGATING EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A DECENT                         
OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR TUESDAY FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS.                   
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE WITH QUICK MOVING H500 WAVE AND                 
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H850 WITH 20 TO 25KT WINDS WILL                    
PROMOTE A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY. CURRENT                   
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR                 
ISSUE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY NEG EPV VALUES ARE FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH              
THAT...SNOWFALL RATIOS OF 17:20:1 AND MODEST LIFT IN THE SNOW                   
GROWTH ZONE DURING THE DAY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE MODERATE TO                      
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN EARLY AM HOURS                    
SOUTHWEST...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.                     
MOISTURE AMOUNTS POINTING TOWARD .25 TO                                         
.40 MAX...SO SNOWFALL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. THE EURO HAS BEEN MOST                
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST TWO DAYS. WIND DOES NOT LOOK              
TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR NOW...BUT MAY IMPACT BLOWING TO SOME                   
DEGREE. IF THIS ISNT ENOUGH FOR NOW ...MODELS EJECT ANOTHER SYSTEM              
TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY MIDWEEK THE DEEP COLD AIR MASS OVER             
THE REGION HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOMEWHAT NORTH. THIS WILL SET THE                 
STAGE FOR A MIXED EVENT ON THURSDAY. EURO IS STILL COLDER THAN THE              
GFS WHICH MAY BE SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH THE DISPLACEMENT            
OF THE COLD AIR. BOTH GFS AND EURO SUGGEST STRONG H850 MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT WITH THE GULF PRETTY MUCH WIDE OPEN. TOO EARLY TO WORRY               
ABOUT AMOUNTS...BUT THE SOUTH MAY EXPERIENCE A FZRA/SN MIX WHILE                
CENTRAL AND AREAS NORTH APPEAR TO BE ALL SNOW. EURO A BIT MORE                  
GENEROUS ON QPF WITH .50 TO .75 FOR THE 14/00Z RUN WHILE THE GFS IS             
CLOSER TO .25 TO .50 AT 14/00Z. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE              
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE STRENGTH              
OF THE WIND FIELD. PLENTY OF TIME TO TRACK THIS EVENT LATER...BUT               
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT. INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER SHOT              
OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL            
FORECAST AIRMASS...WEEKEND MAX AND MINS WILL PROBABLY NEED MODEST               
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ONCE SNOW COVER IS REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA              
AND DEPTH BECOMES REALIZED BY REPORTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...14/12Z                                                              
VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.  MVFR CIGS SHOULD                     
GRADUALLY LOWER IN SLY FLOW WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO GO IFR BUT THAT              
IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.  PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY              
OCCUR AS WELL.  STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN AFFECT SITES 14-19Z WITH            
WINDS BECOMING NWLY AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20KTS.  IFR                  
CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH COLD AIR SURGE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO            
MVFR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.  INCREASING CROSSWINDS...20KTS OR                  
MORE...MAY OCCUR MAINLY AT SW-NE RUNWAYS.  FLURRIES MAY OCCUR WELL              
BEHIND THE FRONT TOO AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FREEZING             
DRIZZLE...BUT THREAT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST MONDAY                   
FOR ADAIR-BLACK HAWK-CASS-DALLAS-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-                  
MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN.                       
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUDUBON-CALHOUN-                  
CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-                         
POCAHONTAS-SAC.                                                                 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST MONDAY                  
FOR AUDUBON-BOONE-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-WEBSTER.                              
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR EMMET-PALO ALTO-                  
POCAHONTAS.                                                                     
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY                   
FOR CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-                    
WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                                   
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR                
BREMER-BUTLER.                                                                  
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-                 
CRAWFORD-SAC.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MOYER                                                                  
SHORT TERM...SMALL                                                              
LONG TERM...REV                                                                 
AVIATION...SMALL                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
602 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SFC LOW BETWEEN HSI-LNK WITH TRAILING COLD                 
FRONT ACROSS KS INTO CO.  WRMFNT EXTENDS FROM LOW INTO SRN MN AND WI            
WITH ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MN APPROACHING FSD.  STRONG CAA AND             
PRES RISES BEHIND SYSTEM WITH NEARLY 40F CHANGE ACROSS FRONT BETWEEN            
ONL-FNB.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVES NOTED IN SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF ROCKIES               
TROUGH...BUT GLANCING US TO THE NW WITH MUCH OF FORCING FROM                    
SIOUXLAND AREA W AND N.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
EVOLUTION OF TEMPS/DEWPOINT...WIND AND PRECIP POTENTIAL OBVIOUSLY               
MAIN QUESTIONS TODAY.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS OF THIS                
STRENGTH...MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING TEMP GRADIENT WELL ON EITHER END            
OF THE EXTREME.  NAM AND ESPECIALLY RUC ARE DOING THE BEST AND WILL             
BE FOLLOWED.  THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY                      
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF FROPA...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREA                    
15-21Z...AND COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND.  WITH SHARPLY                      
INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC MAX BEHIND SYSTEM...EXPECT             
WINDS TO JUST ECLIPSE SUSTAINED 30 MPH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EARLY EVE SO WIND ADVY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SMALL PARTS OF WRN/NW              
SECTIONS.  WITH COLD AIR SURGE AND MIXED LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW /500M/            
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT WITH GUSTS.                                   
MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SPITTING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THIS MUST BE FROM SHALLOW MOISTURE AS                  
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE ABOVE 2KM.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN                 
HOWEVER BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN EMPHATIC DEVELOPING THIS LOW                   
STRATUS BUT NO SIGNS YET...CIGS STILL 2500FT OR HIGHER.  CONSIDERING            
40+ DEWPOINTS ARE SURGING INTO IA...STILL EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN BUT             
MAY TAKE LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THUS STILL HAVE CHANCE/LOW END             
LIKELY POPS...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MEASURABLE DRIZZLE MORE THAN            
RAIN.  P-TYPE MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT FRZG RAIN OR FRZG DRZL BEHIND                 
FROPA AND THEN POSSIBLY TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS DENDRITIC MOISTURE            
INCREASES BEHIND FRONT.  DGZ WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...NO HIGHER THAN             
1.5KM BY LATE AFTERNOON.  QPF VERY MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT                    
CONCERNS OR HEADLINES IN THAT REGARD.                                           
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TO BE NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT              
BUT PLENTY OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT AS IT PASSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO              
HINT AT A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME           
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN H750-H600. FORCING AND QPF COMBINED             
SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS ALREADY              
PICKING UP BY THEN...SO WILL BE LOOKING AT RATHER POOR CONDITIONS               
FOR A BRIEF TIME THERE WITH LOW VSBYS AND BLOWING SNOW. WILL NOT                
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR POTENTIAL NOW GIVEN THE NUMBER OF OTHER                 
CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO            
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE LATER TODAY. NEXT            
CONCERN IS THE WIND CHILL FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SETTLING IN ON COLDER             
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH H850 TEMPS BRUSHING -20C ACROSS THE FAR                     
NORTH/EURO AND EVEN COLDER/GFS. UPSTREAM READINGS OF -10F OR LOWER              
TONIGHT WHERE -20C WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS LATE LAST              
NIGHT. FEEL MORE CONFIDENT WITH MINS OF NEARLY -10F ACROSS THE NORTH            
TONIGHT AND NEARING ZERO CENTRAL. WINDS WILL MIX AS THE EVENING                 
PROGRESSES WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS AND SUSTAINED 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS             
WILL PULL WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -20F OR LOWER FROM HIGHWAY 92 NORTH               
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20...AM EXPECTING WIND            
CHILL READINGS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA MOST OF MONDAY AND WILL                 
EXTEND THE ADVISORY THERE ALL DAY. SUBSIDENCE RATHER STRONG AS                  
TONIGHT PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN CLEARING MOST AREAS AS HIGH BUILDS            
IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MONDAY WILL MIX BUT DIMINISH DURING              
THE DAY AS THE RIDGE FILES THROUGH THE AREA. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE             
VERY COLD...ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. ANOTHER VERY                
COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER FROM APPROACHING            
SYSTEM WILL CAP DROP-OFF WEST AND SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                    
CONTINUES TO SHOW PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH            
NUMEROUS WAVES PROPAGATING EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A                 
DECENT OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR TUESDAY FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS.            
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE WITH QUICK MOVING H500 WAVE AND                 
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H850 WITH 20 TO 25KT WINDS WILL PROMOTE            
A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS               
ARE THAT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE...THOUGH              
SLIGHTLY NEG EPV VALUES ARE FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT...SNOWFALL             
RATIOS OF 17:20:1 AND MODEST LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE DURING THE            
DAY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOWFALL                     
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN EARLY AM HOURS SOUTHWEST...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL            
SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AMOUNTS POINTING TOWARD .25 TO             
.40 MAX...SO SNOWFALL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. THE EURO HAS BEEN MOST                
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST TWO DAYS. WIND DOES NOT LOOK              
TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR NOW...BUT MAY IMPACT BLOWING TO SOME                   
DEGREE. IF THIS ISNT ENOUGH FOR NOW ...MODELS EJECT ANOTHER SYSTEM              
TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY MIDWEEK THE DEEP COLD AIR MASS OVER             
THE REGION HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOMEWHAT NORTH. THIS WILL SET THE                 
STAGE FOR A MIXED EVENT ON THURSDAY. EURO IS STILL COLDER THAN THE              
GFS WHICH MAY BE SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH THE DISPLACEMENT            
OF THE COLD AIR. BOTH GFS AND EURO SUGGEST STRONG H850 MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT WITH THE GULF PRETTY MUCH WIDE OPEN. TOO EARLY TO WORRY               
ABOUT AMOUNTS...BUT THE SOUTH MAY EXPERIENCE A FZRA/SN MIX WHILE                
CENTRAL AND AREAS NORTH APPEAR TO BE ALL SNOW. EURO A BIT MORE                  
GENEROUS ON QPF WITH .50 TO .75 FOR THE 14/00Z RUN WHILE THE GFS IS             
CLOSER TO .25 TO .50 AT 14/00Z. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE              
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE STRENGTH              
OF THE WIND FIELD. PLENTY OF TIME TO TRACK THIS EVENT LATER...BUT               
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT. INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER SHOT              
OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL            
FORECAST AIRMASS...WEEKEND MAX AND MINS WILL PROBABLY NEED MODEST               
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ONCE SNOW COVER IS REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA              
AND DEPTH BECOMES REALIZED BY REPORTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...14/12Z                                                              
VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.  MVFR CIGS SHOULD                     
GRADUALLY LOWER IN SLY FLOW WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO GO IFR BUT THAT              
IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.  PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY              
OCCUR AS WELL.  STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN AFFECT SITES 14-19Z WITH            
WINDS BECOMING NWLY AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20KTS.  IFR                  
CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH COLD AIR SURGE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO            
MVFR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.  INCREASING CROSSWINDS...20KTS OR                  
MORE...MAY OCCUR MAINLY AT SW-NE RUNWAYS.  FLURRIES MAY OCCUR WELL              
BEHIND THE FRONT TOO AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FREEZING             
DRIZZLE...BUT THREAT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE /18Z-03Z/                                      
CASS-AUDUBON-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-SAC-CALHOUN-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-                  
PALO ALTO-KOSSUTH-EMMET.                                                        
WIND CHILL ADVY TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY /06Z-18Z MONDAY/                  
SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-                 
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-                
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA.                 
WIND CHILL ADVY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON /06Z-00Z TUESDAY/              
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO                           
GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BSS                                                       
LONG TERM...REV                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
913 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATING TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN AND TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR               
CENTRAL KS.                                                                     
POCKETS OF SLEET HAVE MOVED OFF INTO MO WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT               
SNOW/FLURRIES LEFT OVER SE KS. UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY             
COLD WITH WINDS STAYING UP OVER THE AREA. AFTER UPDATING TEMPS AND              
WINDS...WIND CHILL GRIDS NOW HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF -15 TEMPS OVER               
CENTRAL KS. THEREFORE WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING               
OFFICES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY THROUGH 14Z.                                      
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES OVER SE KS AND TO DECREASE OVER              
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.                                                   
PRECIP HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SE KS. WE HAVE              
RECIEVED A COUPLE REPORTS OF THUNDER SLEET OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH              
SOME SNOW LIKELY MIXED IN. PROFILERS INDICATE THAT THE 850MB FRONT              
IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SE KS WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION ALSO             
INDICATED AT 700MB. IN ADDITION WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING               
SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS              
ACTIVITY IS ON THE MOVE AND SHOULD EXIT SE KS BY AROUND 9 PM. TOOK              
OUT POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF 135 AND JUST WENT WITH SOME            
FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z.                                                           
LAWSON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
AVIATION...Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                      
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE FIRE FEW               
HOURS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS.                                        
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW...MIXING BRIEFLY WITH LIGHT                      
SLEET...AFFECTING LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. THIS             
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND BE OUT OF SE KS BY                
AROUND 03Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE WITH ABOVE MVFR                 
HEIGHTS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KCNU WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS            
WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND 03Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY                   
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH.                    
LAWSON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE WIND                    
CHILL VALUES TONIGHT AND SNOW CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY              
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE FREEZING                
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY               
MORNING.                                                                        
TONIGHT:                                                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY             
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. LATEST PROFILERS/RUC WERE ALSO                 
SHOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND 700MB NEAR THAT AREA. LATEST RADAR             
LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING SOME NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING                
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE                    
INSTABILITY BANDS OF SNOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES               
ABOVE 750MB. THESE BANDS APPEARS TO FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL               
LIMIT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED                  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF INCH OR LESS THIS EVENING.                   
MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR             
POURING INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A             
COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES                
COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND               
CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT IN              
RUSSELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING              
FORECAST OFFICES...WE HAVE ELECTED NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL                       
ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED CONSIDER THIS DEPENDING              
IF TEMPERATURES DROP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                           
MONDAY:                                                                         
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.             
HOWEVER...THE POLAR AIR MASS WILL NOT BUDGE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO            
GET OUT OF THE TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                           
ANOTHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THROUGH                 
NORTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD            
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT            
BETWEEN 290-295K MAINLY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE                    
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS                
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS                 
EXPECTED IN RUSSELL...LINCOLN AND SALINE COUNTIES.                              
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT:                                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH            
WILL PROVIDE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN               
QUESTION WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. RIGHT            
NOW WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ON THE TIMING OF            
THE FEATURES MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF             
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A WAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.               
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL JUST HELP SHOVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A SHOT OF                    
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE GFS              
ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/UKMET ARE PICKING UP ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT              
OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING              
ON PLACING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.              
THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT IF THIS PANS OUT.                
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...PLACES THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH                  
BISECTING CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE FAVORING THE                    
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WHILE                    
CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS TIMEFRAME WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH LATER RUNS.                                             
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                  
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A 1042MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER ALASKA             
WHICH MAY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS            
A RESULT...MORE COLD WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND.                    
COX                                                                             
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH TO                 
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
AREA INTO THE EVENING. A NARROW AND TRANSIENT BAND OF LIFT IS                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                 
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO                 
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW              
OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE               
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.                                     
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT     6  19  13  26 /  10  10  20  20                                
HUTCHINSON       5  18  11  24 /  10  10  30  20                                
NEWTON           6  17  13  24 /  10  10  30  30                                
ELDORADO         8  18  13  25 /  20  10  20  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  20  15  29 /  10  10  20  20                                
RUSSELL          0  15   6  20 /  10  10  50  50                                
GREAT BEND       4  16   9  23 /  10  10  40  20                                
SALINA           2  16   8  22 /  10  10  40  50                                
MCPHERSON        5  17  10  24 /  10  10  30  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     12  24  15  30 /  70  10  20  30                                
CHANUTE         10  20  14  27 /  60  10  20  40                                
IOLA             9  19  13  26 /  60  10  20  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    11  22  14  29 /  70  10  20  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
708 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES OVER SE KS AND TO DECREASE OVER              
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.                                                   
PRECIP HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SE KS. WE HAVE              
RECIEVED A COUPLE REPORTS OF THUNDER SLEET OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH              
SOME SNOW LIKELY MIXED IN. PROFILERS INDICATE THAT THE 850MB FRONT              
IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SE KS WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION ALSO             
INDICATED AT 700MB. IN ADDITION WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING               
SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS              
ACTIVITY IS ON THE MOVE AND SHOULD EXIT SE KS BY AROUND 9 PM. TOOK              
OUT POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF 135 AND JUST WENT WITH SOME            
FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z.                                                           
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
AVIATION...Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                      
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE FIRE FEW               
HOURS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS.                                        
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW...MIXING BRIEFLY WITH LIGHT                      
SLEET...AFFECTING LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. THIS             
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND BE OUT OF SE KS BY                
AROUND 03Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE WITH ABOVE MVFR                 
HEIGHTS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KCNU WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS            
WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND 03Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY                   
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH.                    
LAWSON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE WIND                    
CHILL VALUES TONIGHT AND SNOW CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY              
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE FREEZING                
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY               
MORNING.                                                                        
TONIGHT:                                                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY             
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. LATEST PROFILERS/RUC WERE ALSO                 
SHOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND 700MB NEAR THAT AREA. LATEST RADAR             
LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING SOME NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING                
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE                    
INSTABILITY BANDS OF SNOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES               
ABOVE 750MB. THESE BANDS APPEARS TO FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL               
LIMIT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED                  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF INCH OR LESS THIS EVENING.                   
MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR             
POURING INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A             
COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES                
COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND               
CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT IN              
RUSSELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING              
FORECAST OFFICES...WE HAVE ELECTED NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL                       
ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED CONSIDER THIS DEPENDING              
IF TEMPERATURES DROP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                           
MONDAY:                                                                         
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.             
HOWEVER...THE POLAR AIR MASS WILL NOT BUDGE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO            
GET OUT OF THE TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                           
ANOTHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THROUGH                 
NORTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD            
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT            
BETWEEN 290-295K MAINLY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE                    
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS                
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS                 
EXPECTED IN RUSSELL...LINCOLN AND SALINE COUNTIES.                              
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT:                                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH            
WILL PROVIDE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN               
QUESTION WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. RIGHT            
NOW WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ON THE TIMING OF            
THE FEATURES MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF             
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A WAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.               
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL JUST HELP SHOVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A SHOT OF                    
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE GFS              
ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/UKMET ARE PICKING UP ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT              
OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING              
ON PLACING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.              
THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT IF THIS PANS OUT.                
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...PLACES THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH                  
BISECTING CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE FAVORING THE                    
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WHILE                    
CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS TIMEFRAME WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH LATER RUNS.                                             
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                  
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A 1042MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER ALASKA             
WHICH MAY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS            
A RESULT...MORE COLD WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND.                    
COX                                                                             
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH TO                 
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
AREA INTO THE EVENING. A NARROW AND TRANSIENT BAND OF LIFT IS                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                 
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO                 
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW              
OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE               
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.                                     
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT     8  19  13  26 /  10  10  20  20                                
HUTCHINSON       7  18  11  24 /  10  10  30  20                                
NEWTON           7  17  13  24 /  10  10  30  30                                
ELDORADO         8  18  13  25 /  20  10  20  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  20  15  29 /  10  10  20  20                                
RUSSELL          0  15   6  20 /  10  10  50  50                                
GREAT BEND       4  16   9  23 /  10  10  40  20                                
SALINA           4  16   8  22 /  10  10  40  50                                
MCPHERSON        6  17  10  24 /  10  10  30  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     12  24  15  30 /  70  10  20  30                                
CHANUTE         10  20  14  27 /  60  10  20  40                                
IOLA             9  19  13  26 /  60  10  20  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    11  22  14  29 /  70  10  20  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
543 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                     
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE FIRE FEW               
HOURS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS.                                        
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW...MIXING BRIEFLY WITH LIGHT                      
SLEET...AFFECTING LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. THIS             
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND BE OUT OF SE KS BY                
AROUND 03Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE WITH ABOVE MVFR                 
HEIGHTS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KCNU WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS            
WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND 03Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY                   
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH.                    
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE WIND                    
CHILL VALUES TONIGHT AND SNOW CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY              
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE FREEZING                
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY               
MORNING.                                                                        
TONIGHT:                                                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY             
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. LATEST PROFILERS/RUC WERE ALSO                 
SHOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND 700MB NEAR THAT AREA. LATEST RADAR             
LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING SOME NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING                
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE                    
INSTABILITY BANDS OF SNOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES               
ABOVE 750MB. THESE BANDS APPEARS TO FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL               
LIMIT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED                  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF INCH OR LESS THIS EVENING.                   
MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR             
POURING INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A             
COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES                
COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND               
CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT IN              
RUSSELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING              
FORECAST OFFICES...WE HAVE ELECTED NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL                       
ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED CONSIDER THIS DEPENDING              
IF TEMPERATURES DROP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                           
MONDAY:                                                                         
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.             
HOWEVER...THE POLAR AIR MASS WILL NOT BUDGE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO            
GET OUT OF THE TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                           
ANOTHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THROUGH                 
NORTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD            
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT            
BETWEEN 290-295K MAINLY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE                    
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS                
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS                 
EXPECTED IN RUSSELL...LINCOLN AND SALINE COUNTIES.                              
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT:                                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH            
WILL PROVIDE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN               
QUESTION WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. RIGHT            
NOW WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ON THE TIMING OF            
THE FEATURES MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF             
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A WAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.               
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL JUST HELP SHOVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A SHOT OF                    
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE GFS              
ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/UKMET ARE PICKING UP ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT              
OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING              
ON PLACING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.              
THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT IF THIS PANS OUT.                
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...PLACES THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH                  
BISECTING CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE FAVORING THE                    
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WHILE                    
CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS TIMEFRAME WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH LATER RUNS.                                             
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                  
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A 1042MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER ALASKA             
WHICH MAY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS            
A RESULT...MORE COLD WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND.                    
COX                                                                             
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH TO                 
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
AREA INTO THE EVENING. A NARROW AND TRANSIENT BAND OF LIFT IS                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                 
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO                 
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW              
OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE               
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.                                     
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT     8  19  13  26 /  40  10  20  20                                
HUTCHINSON       7  18  11  24 /  40  10  30  20                                
NEWTON           7  17  13  24 /  40  10  30  30                                
ELDORADO         8  18  13  25 /  40  10  20  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  20  15  29 /  30  10  20  20                                
RUSSELL          0  15   6  20 /  20  10  50  50                                
GREAT BEND       4  16   9  23 /  30  10  40  20                                
SALINA           4  16   8  22 /  30  10  40  50                                
MCPHERSON        6  17  10  24 /  40  10  30  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     12  24  15  30 /  40  10  20  30                                
CHANUTE         10  20  14  27 /  40  10  20  40                                
IOLA             9  19  13  26 /  40  10  20  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    11  22  14  29 /  40  10  20  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
332 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE WIND                    
CHILL VALUES TONIGHT AND SNOW CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY              
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE FREEZING                
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY               
MORNING.                                                                        
TONIGHT:                                                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY             
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. LATEST PROFILERS/RUC WERE ALSO                 
SHOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND 700MB NEAR THAT AREA. LATEST RADAR             
LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING SOME NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING                
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE                    
INSTABILITY BANDS OF SNOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES               
ABOVE 750MB. THESE BANDS APPEARS TO FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL               
LIMIT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED                  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF INCH OR LESS THIS EVENING.                   
MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR             
POURING INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A             
COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES                
COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND               
CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT IN              
RUSSELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING              
FORECAST OFFICES...WE HAVE ELECTED NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL                       
ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED CONSIDER THIS DEPENDING              
IF TEMPERATURES DROP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                           
MONDAY:                                                                         
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.             
HOWEVER...THE POLAR AIR MASS WILL NOT BUDGE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO            
GET OUT OF THE TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                           
ANOTHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THROUGH                 
NORTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD            
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT            
BETWEEN 290-295K MAINLY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE                    
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS                
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS                 
EXPECTED IN RUSSELL...LINCOLN AND SALINE COUNTIES.                              
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT:                                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH            
WILL PROVIDE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN               
QUESTION WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. RIGHT            
NOW WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ON THE TIMING OF            
THE FEATURES MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF             
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A WAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.               
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL JUST HELP SHOVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A SHOT OF                    
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE GFS              
ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/UKMET ARE PICKING UP ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT              
OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING              
ON PLACING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.              
THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT IF THIS PANS OUT.                
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...PLACES THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH                  
BISECTING CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE FAVORING THE                    
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WHILE                    
CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS TIMEFRAME WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH LATER RUNS.                                             
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                  
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A 1042MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER ALASKA             
WHICH MAY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS            
A RESULT...MORE COLD WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND.                    
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                   
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH TO                 
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
AREA INTO THE EVENING. A NARROW AND TRANSIENT BAND OF LIFT IS                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                 
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO                 
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW              
OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE               
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.                                     
KED                                                                             
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT     8  19  13  26 /  40  10  20  20                                
HUTCHINSON       7  18  11  24 /  40  10  30  20                                
NEWTON           7  17  13  24 /  40  10  30  30                                
ELDORADO         8  18  13  25 /  40  10  20  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  20  15  29 /  30  10  20  20                                
RUSSELL          0  15   6  20 /  20  10  50  50                                
GREAT BEND       4  16   9  23 /  30  10  40  20                                
SALINA           4  16   8  22 /  30  10  40  50                                
MCPHERSON        6  17  10  24 /  40  10  30  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     12  24  15  30 /  40  10  20  30                                
CHANUTE         10  20  14  27 /  40  10  20  40                                
IOLA             9  19  13  26 /  40  10  20  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    11  22  14  29 /  40  10  20  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
420 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
224 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SLIDING              
EAST ACROSS WYOMING...WITH RUC TROP ANALYSIS INDICATING ANOTHER                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ARIZONA. AT THE SFC...ARCTIC COLD FRONT            
MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LEADING EDGE              
ALREADY THROUGH YUMA AROUND 4Z. LARGE AREA OF SUB ZERO TEMPS                    
OBSERVED ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE NAM AND            
GFS OVERALL INITIALIZED DECENT ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE            
VARIOUS ERRORS IN THE H7 AND H85 THERMAL FIELD WITH RESPECT TO THE              
FRONT.                                                                          
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL CHANCES             
BEHIND TODAYS ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AND                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SEEM DIVIDED ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY               
AND ARE DIVIDED BETWEEN THE FAIRLY DRY NAM AND WETTER GFS. FORCING              
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALSO REMAIN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS RUN               
WITH PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT BEING STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS              
MAINLY BETWEEN H7-H6. H5-H3 DIV Q FIELDS SUGGEST SOME UPPER LEVEL               
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS 145KT JET STREAK MOVES INTO SW KANSAS. IT                 
APPEARS THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FORCING             
WILL BE SUFFICENT TO SATURATE LAYER ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH                
WOULD ALLOW AVAILABLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO BE RELEASED. IF                
FORCING IS NOT SUFFICENT (AS NAM SUGGESTS) PRECIP PROCESSES WILL                
LIKELY BE VERY SHALLOW AND RESULTING PRECIP MORE OF THE FLURRY                  
VARIETY. IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...WOULD EXPECT A DECENT BAND OF             
SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF               
THE FRONTAL ZONE...BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT...AND TIME IT              
WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LEVEL IMMEDIATELY ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE WILL                 
LIKELY LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN UNDER BEST CIRCUMSTANCES. WELL              
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING FORECAST BUT FOR THE TIME             
BEING PLAN TO LIMIT HIGHER POPS/QPF TO WESTERN ZONES AS A COMPROMISE            
BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE             
ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z...BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES. 06Z NAM             
NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS...WITH LATEST PRECIP FIELDS LINING UP              
WELL WITH EXPECTED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PLAN ON UPPING POPS TO              
THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST POPS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS YUMA               
COUNTY. AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.                  
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS AND WIND CHILLS AS COLD              
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT WIND CHILLS ALREADY NEAR -10 AT                
YMA...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DOUBT THAT                    
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND              
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL              
WINDS DECOUPLE...BUT WITH STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR THINK THERE IS               
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DECOUPLING SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN WIND                    
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT IS LOW. WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW AT -15F AND            
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ISSUE A SMALL WINTER WX ADVISORY            
FOR YUMA COUNTY. WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE STRONG AROUND 12Z...WITH              
SEVERAL SPOTS LIKELY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BASED ON               
PATTERN THINK THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO A BRIEF PERIOD AS STRONGEST              
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE               
ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL MONITOR THE WINDS AND MAKE A FINAL             
CALL BY SUNRISE.                                                                
MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH            
THE DAY...WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING TEMPS. WITH STRONG WESTERLY JET               
OVERHEAD...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT TEMPS WILL REALLY STRUGGLE TO             
WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE OBSERVED MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR             
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN           
AGREEMENT LAST NIGHT WITH THIS PERIOD...NAM AND GFS HAVE STARTED TO             
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NAM                    
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME WITH SLOWER...MORE AGGRESSIVE            
SOLUTION AND FOR THE TIME BEING WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS             
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN...UKMET AND SREF MEAN. STRONG WAA            
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA H3 JET AXIS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH.                    
DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION APPEARS SUFFICENT TO RESULT IN SOME                 
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT QUALITY OF MOISTURE              
RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF SUCH A STRONG COLD FRONT. CONCERNS            
ASIDE...ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO UP CHANCES IN THE EASTERN             
CWA. ACTUALLY MAY HAVE SOME PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS AS GFS SUGGESTING A            
WARM LAYER DEVELOPS ACRS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY MORNING. COULD               
SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO -FZDZ BEFORE ENDING BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS            
PRECIP WILL END BEFORE THIS LAYER DEVELOPS. JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE            
TO LINGER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH CWA COMING UNDER THE                    
INFLUENCE OF ENTRANCE REGION OVERNIGHT. GFS INDICATING A FAIRLY                 
STRONG RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...WITH A DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL                   
CIRCULATION (H8-H6) DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL ADD SOME LOW                
POPS TO THE PERIOD FOR NOW...BUT WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY BEFORE                
THIS POINT DO NOT WANT TO PLACE TO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THIS ONE MODEL              
RUN.                                                                            
WED-SAT...NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                      
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
420 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z OR SO IN                      
STRATUS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 23Z CIGS                 
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BAND OF LIGHT               
TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER 15Z AT BOTH                 
SITES CONTINUING THROUGH 20-21Z WITH VIS BEING REDUCED TO A FEW                 
MILES...POSSIBLY CREATING IFR CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS OF 35KTS OR                
SO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BELOW 15KTS               
BY 23Z AT BOTH SITES AS WELL.                                                   
07                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002.          
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     NEZ079>081.                                                                
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ091.              
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
225 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
224 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SLIDING              
EAST ACROSS WYOMING...WITH RUC TROP ANALYSIS INDICATING ANOTHER                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ARIZONA. AT THE SFC...ARCTIC COLD FRONT            
MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LEADING EDGE              
ALREADY THROUGH YUMA AROUND 4Z. LARGE AREA OF SUB ZERO TEMPS                    
OBSERVED ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE NAM AND            
GFS OVERALL INITIALIZED DECENT ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE            
VARIOUS ERRORS IN THE H7 AND H85 THERMAL FIELD WITH RESPECT TO THE              
FRONT.                                                                          
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL CHANCES             
BEHIND TODAYS ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AND                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SEEM DIVIDED ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY               
AND ARE DIVIDED BETWEEN THE FAIRLY DRY NAM AND WETTER GFS. FORCING              
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALSO REMAIN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS RUN               
WITH PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT BEING STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS              
MAINLY BETWEEN H7-H6. H5-H3 DIV Q FIELDS SUGGEST SOME UPPER LEVEL               
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS 145KT JET STREAK MOVES INTO SW KANSAS. IT                 
APPEARS THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FORCING             
WILL BE SUFFICENT TO SATURATE LAYER ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH                
WOULD ALLOW AVAILABLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO BE RELEASED. IF                
FORCING IS NOT SUFFICENT (AS NAM SUGGESTS) PRECIP PROCESSES WILL                
LIKELY BE VERY SHALLOW AND RESULTING PRECIP MORE OF THE FLURRY                  
VARIETY. IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...WOULD EXPECT A DECENT BAND OF             
SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF               
THE FRONTAL ZONE...BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT...AND TIME IT              
WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LEVEL IMMEDIATELY ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE WILL                 
LIKELY LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN UNDER BEST CIRCUMSTANCES. WELL              
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING FORECAST BUT FOR THE TIME             
BEING PLAN TO LIMIT HIGHER POPS/QPF TO WESTERN ZONES AS A COMPROMISE            
BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE             
ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z...BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES. 06Z NAM             
NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS...WITH LATEST PRECIP FIELDS LINING UP              
WELL WITH EXPECTED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PLAN ON UPPING POPS TO              
THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST POPS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS YUMA               
COUNTY. AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.                  
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS AND WIND CHILLS AS COLD              
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT WIND CHILLS ALREADY NEAR -10 AT                
YMA...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DOUBT THAT                    
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND              
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL              
WINDS DECOUPLE...BUT WITH STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR THINK THERE IS               
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DECOUPLING SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN WIND                    
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT IS LOW. WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW AT -15F AND            
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ISSUE A SMALL WINTER WX ADVISORY            
FOR YUMA COUNTY. WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE STRONG AROUND 12Z...WITH              
SEVERAL SPOTS LIKELY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BASED ON               
PATTERN THINK THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO A BRIEF PERIOD AS STRONGEST              
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE               
ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL MONITOR THE WINDS AND MAKE A FINAL             
CALL BY SUNRISE.                                                                
MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH            
THE DAY...WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING TEMPS. WITH STRONG WESTERLY JET               
OVERHEAD...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT TEMPS WILL REALLY STRUGGLE TO             
WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE OBSERVED MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR             
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN           
AGREEMENT LAST NIGHT WITH THIS PERIOD...NAM AND GFS HAVE STARTED TO             
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NAM                    
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME WITH SLOWER...MORE AGGRESSIVE            
SOLUTION AND FOR THE TIME BEING WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS             
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN...UKMET AND SREF MEAN. STRONG WAA            
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA H3 JET AXIS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH.                    
DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION APPEARS SUFFICENT TO RESULT IN SOME                 
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT QUALITY OF MOISTURE              
RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF SUCH A STRONG COLD FRONT. CONCERNS            
ASIDE...ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO UP CHANCES IN THE EASTERN             
CWA. ACTUALLY MAY HAVE SOME PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS AS GFS SUGGESTING A            
WARM LAYER DEVELOPS ACRS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY MORNING. COULD               
SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO -FZDZ BEFORE ENDING BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS            
PRECIP WILL END BEFORE THIS LAYER DEVELOPS. JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE            
TO LINGER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH CWA COMING UNDER THE                    
INFLUENCE OF ENTRANCE REGION OVERNIGHT. GFS INDICATING A FAIRLY                 
STRONG RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...WITH A DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL                   
CIRCULATION (H8-H6) DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL ADD SOME LOW                
POPS TO THE PERIOD FOR NOW...BUT WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY BEFORE                
THIS POINT DO NOT WANT TO PLACE TO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THIS ONE MODEL              
RUN.                                                                            
WED-SAT...NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                      
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS...COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS              
THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE FORECAST                   
PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE                    
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD/KMCK WITH LIGHT SNOW AROUND                   
10Z-12Z...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY                  
DROP TO IFR. NORTH WINDS WITH FRONT WILL BE NORTH AT 20-35 KNOTS                
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
259 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT COMING DOWN,                 
HOW FAST TEMPS FALL, WHAT THE WINDS WILL DO, AND IF WE GET ANY PRECIP.          
00Z UPPER AIR OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE              
WESTERN CONUS WITH 200-230 M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB. THE SFC LOW                 
HAS BEEN DEEPENING ACROSS WY THIS MORNING, WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY                  
WINDS CONTINUING OVER WESTERN KS. GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED IN ALL BUT              
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR                   
THERE GOING UNTIL 00Z BUT HAVE CANCELED THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WARM              
POCKET AT 850MB CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH TEMPS AT               
12Z AROUND 10 C. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR IS JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH               
THE ARCTIC FRONT ALREADY DOWN INTO SD AND WY AS OF 20Z. THE FRONT               
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTH TONIGHT, MOVING INTO OUR FAR                    
NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. THINK THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF                
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP READINGS TONIGHT FAIRLY MILD, SO CONTINUED                
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.                                                   
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING,                  
PASSING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF OUR COUNTIES BY 18Z. GOING                      
FORECAST HAD FALLING TEMPS AFTER THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, AND THIS              
CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME                  
FAIRLY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH WITH THE 850MB TROUGH                  
AXIS OVERHEAD THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET.              
NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE ONLY 20 TO 25 KTS OFF THE DECK DURING THE                 
PEAK PERIOD OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALLY                 
FAIRLY WINDY RUC ALSO KEEPS THE HIGHEST WINDS TO OUR NORTHEAST.                 
THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS RIGHT               
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW.                       
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS                   
SHOULD ALSO HELP BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT                   
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH, AND              
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. STILL, THERE IS A                 
DECENT MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADED DOWN INTO THE CWA BY                    
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD                   
SATURATED LAYER FROM 600MB DOWN CLOSE TO THE SFC. CANNOT                        
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT, SO WILL                 
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHAT                    
LITTLE MOISTURE WE HAVE DISAPPEARS AFTER 06Z, SO ANYTHING THAT IS               
GOING SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THEN.                                                 
THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD                  
INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE REST OF IT REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN                  
CONUS. THE ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE PLAINS BY                   
TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WE SHOULD GET DOWN INTO              
THE SINGLE DIGITS DESPITE CLOUDS. THE COLD SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN              
PLACE FOR MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE KEEPING MUCH OF OUR CLOUDS AROUND,                
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850MB TEMPS WILL              
BE AROUND -10 C, AND NOT MUCH MIXING WILL BE GOING ON. WILL                     
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS F IN THE NORTH                
TO THE LOW 20S IN THE FAR SOUTH.                                                
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A WEEK MARKED              
BY PERIODS OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PERIODS OF               
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET              
AND CANADIAN ALL INDICATE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS SHIFTED WEST                
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS IS ALLOWING THE               
MEAN TROUGH POSITION TO SET UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH                   
AMERICA. OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THE UPPER FLOW WILL HAVE A                      
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.                                                        
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WERE PUSHING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN                 
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH SOUTH AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE             
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE HI-RES ECMWF            
AND GFS BOTH SHOW THIS SIGNAL.  THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WEAK WAVE            
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY AND THEN SHOW A CLOSED                 
UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF            
BOTH WAVE WITH ABOVE FREEZING 850 MB TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO              
SW KANSAS. THIS FAR OUT IS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THESE FINER            
DETAILS IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE             
FLOW WILL CAUSE THE ARCTIC AIR TO UNDULATE BACK AND FORTH. THE                  
MODELS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON             
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE BUT THERE IS A LOT OF                       
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IN THE                
LOWER LEVELS.  ONE CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO            
THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.                
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY                       
SHALLOW...ONLY UP TO ABOUT 850 MB. WARM ADVECTION IN THE SATURATED              
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD            
OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AN ARCTIC              
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING             
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  42  45   6  18 /   0  20  20   0                                           
GCK  35  37   4  18 /   0  20  10   0                                           
EHA  40  43   9  23 /   0  10  10   0                                           
LBL  41  45   9  21 /   0  10  10   0                                           
HYS  34  34   3  15 /   0  20  10   0                                           
P28  46  55   7  20 /   0  20  20   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ046-065-066-                 
079>081-089-090.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN26/02/02                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1232 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/THOUGHTS AND AFTER COLLABORATION...HAVE                 
UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS                 
AND THE FLINT HILLS UNTIL 6 PM. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 50 MPH HAVE                   
BEEN OCCURRING...WITH INCREASED SUN/MIXING RESULTING IN POTENTIAL               
FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.                             
ALSO EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE REST OF SOUTHEAST                    
KANSAS AS WELL.                                                                 
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE               
EVENING. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE OFF THE RUC/GFS ALONE                
SUPPORT THE GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH ADDED CONTRIBUTION OF LOW                
LEVEL MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAKING FOR HIGH END EVENT FOR AREAS              
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE TRENDS DO                 
SUGGEST A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE FLINT HILLS                
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SO HAVE CONTEMPLATED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN                 
UPGRADE TO HEADLINE. ALREADY HAVE SEEN GUST TO 55 MPH AT CFV AT                 
17Z...WITH THE PROFILER AT NEODESHA SHOWING 55-60KTS AT 750                     
METERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THRU 18Z AND COLLABORATE                
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES ON ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE OF WIND HEADLINE.                 
KED                                                                             
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST                 
VALID PERIOD...BEFORE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIND                 
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME CHANCE                
FOR MVFR CIGS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS/KCNU TAF TONIGHT INTO                  
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                        
KED                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                          
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON                
HOURS...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER SOUTH               
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER                  
30KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45KTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF                  
SITES EXCEPT FOR RSL TAF SITE WHERE WIND SPEEDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY               
LOWER BUT STILL GUSTY NONE THE LESS. MVFR CIGS WILL MATERIALIZE OVER            
CNU TAF SITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                         
INCREASES...SOUTHEAST KANSAS COULD EVEN SEE SOME IFR CIGS EARLY                 
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
JAKUB                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TODAY:                                                                          
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNDERWAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                   
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING..WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY                  
BEING MET PRIOR TO GOING ADVISORY AND WILL RAMP IT UP SOONER.                   
FORECAST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDS COULD                   
FLIRT WITH WARNING CRITERIA WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING. WHERE GRADIENT              
IS TIGHTEST...COMBO OF CLOUDS/ROUGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KS AND               
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR HOLDING OFF ON A HIGH WIND WARNING. RAPID               
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS 0000 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS               
COULD LEAD TO STRAY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. GIVEN MODEL                      
PROPENSITY TO BE FAST WITH MOISTURE AND INITIAL DRY AIR...WILL                  
KEEP AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY AND START PRECIPITATION AT 0000 UTC.                
WILL ALSO EXPAND RED FLAG WARNING A BIT BASED ON LATEST FIRE                    
DANGER GRIDS.                                                                   
TONIGHT:                                                                        
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.               
SUSPECT DAY SHIFT WILL EXTEND THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEAST                 
KS...GIVEN STOUT GRADIENT. STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BALMY               
MINIMUMS FOR MOST AREAS. FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THROUGH RSL AT 1200               
UTC AND COULD BE CLOSE TO SLN/GBD BY THEN IF FASTER EUROPEAN                    
CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL VERIFIES. GIVEN                 
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR...THAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.                     
SUN-SUN NIGHT:                                                                  
LATEST NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL RATHER                 
CLOSE WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY...BUT ARE BOTH              
SLOWER THAN THE 1200 UTC EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER               
FORECASTS MODEL. SUSPECT SOMETHING IN BETWEEN IS PROBABLY THE BEST              
BET AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND                 
FRONT AS COLD/DRY AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES               
ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY IN MOISTURE AHEAD FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO                
BE SHIFTING EAST. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SUN NIGHT IN WARM                 
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ELEVATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION TYPE                  
WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX DURING THE EVENING                      
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING OR                  
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DUE              
TO RAPID FREEZING OF MOISTURE ON ROADS FROM LIGHT RAIN AND/OR                   
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT               
IN SOUTHEAST KS. STARTED TRENDING DOWN DEWPOINTS...BUT LIKELY NOT               
FAR ENOUGH GIVEN READINGS UPSTREAM.                                             
MON-TUE:                                                                        
NIXED RESIDUAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON                       
MON...BUT BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR                 
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL SHOWING RETURN FLOW                        
DEVELOPING WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF OVERRUNNING OVER THE ENTIRE                  
AREA. INTIALLY IT SHOULD BE SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT AS                  
LEVELS WARM...MAY SEE SWITCH TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER                 
SOUTHEAST KS TUE AFTERNOON.                                                     
WED-FRI:                                                                        
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    61  50  56  12 /  10  10  10  20                                
HUTCHINSON      61  45  50   9 /   0  10  10  20                                
NEWTON          60  48  56   9 /  10  10  10  20                                
ELDORADO        59  51  56  11 /  10  10  10  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  52  59  14 /  10  10  10  30                                
RUSSELL         63  33  33   4 /   0  10  20  20                                
GREAT BEND      63  37  37   4 /   0  10  20  20                                
SALINA          61  39  41   8 /   0  10  10  20                                
MCPHERSON       60  43  48   8 /   0  10  10  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     59  54  63  22 /  10  10  20  50                                
CHANUTE         58  52  61  15 /  10  10  20  40                                
IOLA            58  52  62  13 /  10  10  20  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    58  53  62  21 /  10  10  20  40                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ072-                     
093>096-098>100.                                                                
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ049>053-                  
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                                
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR                
KSZ072-093>096-098>100.                                                         
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ047>052-067-068-               
082-083-091-092.                                                                
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ053-069>071.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1132 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE               
EVENING. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE OFF THE RUC/GFS ALONE                
SUPPORT THE GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH ADDED CONTRIBUTION OF LOW                
LEVEL MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAKING FOR HIGH END EVENT FOR AREAS              
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE TRENDS DO                 
SUGGEST A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE FLINT HILLS                
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SO HAVE CONTEMPLATED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN                 
UPGRADE TO HEADLINE. ALREADY HAVE SEEN GUST TO 55 MPH AT CFV AT                 
17Z...WITH THE PROFILER AT NEODESHA SHOWING 55-60KTS AT 750                     
METERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THRU 18Z AND COLLABORATE                
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES ON ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE OF WIND HEADLINE.                 
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                   
VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST                 
VALID PERIOD...BEFORE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIND                 
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME CHANCE                
FOR MVFR CIGS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS/KCNU TAF TONIGHT INTO                  
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                        
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                         
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON                
HOURS...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER SOUTH               
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER                  
30KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45KTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF                  
SITES EXCEPT FOR RSL TAF SITE WHERE WIND SPEEDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY               
LOWER BUT STILL GUSTY NONE THE LESS. MVFR CIGS WILL MATERIALIZE OVER            
CNU TAF SITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                         
INCREASES...SOUTHEAST KANSAS COULD EVEN SEE SOME IFR CIGS EARLY                 
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
JAKUB                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TODAY:                                                                          
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNDERWAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                   
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING..WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY                  
BEING MET PRIOR TO GOING ADVISORY AND WILL RAMP IT UP SOONER.                   
FORECAST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDS COULD                   
FLIRT WITH WARNING CRITERIA WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING. WHERE GRADIENT              
IS TIGHTEST...COMBO OF CLOUDS/ROUGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KS AND               
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR HOLDING OFF ON A HIGH WIND WARNING. RAPID               
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS 0000 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS               
COULD LEAD TO STRAY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. GIVEN MODEL                      
PROPENSITY TO BE FAST WITH MOISTURE AND INITIAL DRY AIR...WILL                  
KEEP AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY AND START PRECIPITATION AT 0000 UTC.                
WILL ALSO EXPAND RED FLAG WARNING A BIT BASED ON LATEST FIRE                    
DANGER GRIDS.                                                                   
TONIGHT:                                                                        
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.               
SUSPECT DAY SHIFT WILL EXTEND THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEAST                 
KS...GIVEN STOUT GRADIENT. STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BALMY               
MINIMUMS FOR MOST AREAS. FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THROUGH RSL AT 1200               
UTC AND COULD BE CLOSE TO SLN/GBD BY THEN IF FASTER EUROPEAN                    
CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL VERIFIES. GIVEN                 
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR...THAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.                     
SUN-SUN NIGHT:                                                                  
LATEST NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL RATHER                 
CLOSE WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY...BUT ARE BOTH              
SLOWER THAN THE 1200 UTC EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER               
FORECASTS MODEL. SUSPECT SOMETHING IN BETWEEN IS PROBABLY THE BEST              
BET AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND                 
FRONT AS COLD/DRY AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES               
ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY IN MOISTURE AHEAD FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO                
BE SHIFTING EAST. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SUN NIGHT IN WARM                 
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ELEVATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION TYPE                  
WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX DURING THE EVENING                      
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING OR                  
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DUE              
TO RAPID FREEZING OF MOISTURE ON ROADS FROM LIGHT RAIN AND/OR                   
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT               
IN SOUTHEAST KS. STARTED TRENDING DOWN DEWPOINTS...BUT LIKELY NOT               
FAR ENOUGH GIVEN READINGS UPSTREAM.                                             
MON-TUE:                                                                        
NIXED RESIDUAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON                       
MON...BUT BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR                 
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL SHOWING RETURN FLOW                        
DEVELOPING WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF OVERRUNNING OVER THE ENTIRE                  
AREA. INTIALLY IT SHOULD BE SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT AS                  
LEVELS WARM...MAY SEE SWITCH TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER                 
SOUTHEAST KS TUE AFTERNOON.                                                     
WED-FRI:                                                                        
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    61  50  56  12 /  10  10  10  20                                
HUTCHINSON      61  45  50   9 /   0  10  10  20                                
NEWTON          60  48  56   9 /  10  10  10  20                                
ELDORADO        59  51  56  11 /  10  10  10  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  52  59  14 /  10  10  10  30                                
RUSSELL         63  33  33   4 /   0  10  20  20                                
GREAT BEND      63  37  37   4 /   0  10  20  20                                
SALINA          61  39  41   8 /   0  10  10  20                                
MCPHERSON       60  43  48   8 /   0  10  10  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     59  54  63  22 /  10  20  20  50                                
CHANUTE         58  52  61  15 /  10  20  20  40                                
IOLA            58  52  62  13 /  10  20  20  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    58  53  62  21 /  10  20  20  40                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ053-069>072-                    
093>096-098>100.                                                                
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ049>053-                  
067>072-082-083-091>094-098.                                                    
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ047>052-067-068-               
082-083-091-092.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE              
GRADIENT...AND WINDS ALOFT BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE           
ALREADY HAD SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH           
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND                   
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER             
LINES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...             
WHERE AC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT SATELLITE                
IMAGES AND RUC13 MOISTURE FIELDS...THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST              
THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER CAN BE                  
EXPECTED. OTHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTHWEST...WILL GO WITH              
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING TODAY FOR AN AVERAGE SKY COVER AS MID AND HIGH             
CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN THE           
COLDEST VALLEYS RAPIDLY REACHING THE 40S SO FAR. TWEAKED AFTERNOON              
HIGHS SOME BASED ON THE LATEST UPPER AIR DATA AND CURRENT TRENDS.               
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS OUT SOON.                                             
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                                         
WAA ALREADY EVIDENT WITH SRLY FLOW AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER           
30S ATTM. GUSTY WINDS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOP OBS IN TN              
AND ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...WINDS GUSTY FROM MIE TO SDF          
TO BWG TO MKL. NOTHING YET TO MEET NPW (WIND ADV) CRITERIA YET BUT              
THIS SHOULD CHANGE AFTER SUNRISE. STILL HAVE SOME SNOW IN OUR CNTRL             
ZONES TO GET RID OF SO TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB BUT SHOULD MAKE IT           
TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S IN OUR SNOW BELT ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE DAN           
BOONE NAT FOREST. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY. HAVE              
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE BEEN OUT OF TOUCH              
WITH CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS. WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS TODAY I AM             
ALSO EXPECTING OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT AS THE                 
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BE LATE TO ESTABLISH ...IF AT ALL.             
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                          
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY             
OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD           
ON OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE NORTHEAST ALONG             
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES DURING THE BREADTH OF THIS                
PERIOD. IT WILL BE NUDGED AND BUFFETED FROM THE NORTHWEST BY A                  
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF SHORTWAVES RUNNING FROM THE BASE OF THE             
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST IN FAST AND BROAD               
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP INTO THE OHIO            
VALLEY AND THEN TO EASTERN CANADA. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THESE WAVES               
ARE ILL TIMED AND DEFINED AMONGST THE MODELS. A BLENDED SOLUTION WAS            
FOLLOWED...THOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE FAR LESS IMPORTANT TO               
THIS FORECAST THAN IT NORMAL IS...GIVEN THE DETERMINATIVE ARCTIC AIR            
AIR MASS SLOSHING AROUND IN OUR NEIGHBORHOOD BENEATH THE UPPER                  
PATTERN. TO THAT END...THE DAY TO DAY EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE COLD           
AIR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A CRITICAL FACTOR            
IN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FAIRLY WET           
FORECAST. EARLY ON...A BLEND OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NAM12             
WAS FOLLOWED BEFORE MORE OF A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GFS AND 12Z ECMWF           
WAS PREFERRED FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH SATURDAY. INITIALLY...THIS                
RESULTED IN A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED BY THE              
INHERITED GRIDS AND THE GFS. FOLLOWING THAT...LATER IN THE WEEK...THE           
SLOSHING OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE BASED MORE ON THE SFC PRESSURE               
FEATURES AND THE RESULTING PATTERN. ACCORDINGLY...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF           
THE HPC PATTERN AND THE MID RANGE MODELS.                                       
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN EXTREME OSCILLATION OF COLD AIR AND            
ITS RESULTS ON THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN PERIODS OF WARMTH AS LOW               
PRESSURE WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA...RUNNING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC             
ZONE. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WET PERIOD WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FEEDING            
MOISTURE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD AND FAST...DEEP LAYER...SOUTHWEST           
FLOW. SPECIFICALLY...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL PRESS INTO THE CWA FROM THE            
NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY AS SHOWERS STREAM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE                 
FRONT. THE UNDERCUTTING COLD WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF MIXED               
PRECIPITATION OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...                   
LINGERING INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE THEN SENDS WARMER             
AIR BACK NORTH LATER TUESDAY WHILE THE CHANCE FOR LIQUID PCPN                   
CONTINUES. THIS WAVE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING THE COLD AIR AND              
ANOTHER THREAT FOR LINGERING MIXED PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY           
MORNING. FOR THURSDAY PROPER...THE NEXT SFC WAVE SENDS WARM AIR BACK            
NORTH...LASTING INTO THE NIGHT WITH COLD AIR PUSHING BACK INTO THE              
REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH...AT THIS POINT FOR               
MIXED PCPN FROM THE OVER RUNNING PCPN THAT WILL WORK BACK OVER THE              
AREA ON SATURDAY...ALL THE WHILE BRINGING THE NEXT BRIEF SURGE OF               
WARM AIR NORTHWARD. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MIXED             
PCPN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LESSER THREAT             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN                
GOING FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                
GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR AFFECTING US EARLY ON...FOLLOWED             
MORE OF A TEMPERATURE CURVE AND SPECIFIC VALUES FROM THE RAW NAM12.             
THIS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT RATHER            
THAN THE MAV. LATER ON...BLENDED THE RAW ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS                    
RESULTING IN MORE MODERATED MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THAT PART OF THE               
EXTENDED THAN THE MEX NUMBERS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH MORE OF A            
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG RANGE AND           
THEN NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MEX THROUGH SATURDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE             
GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A COLD FRONT              
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40            
KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH                 
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SURFACE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE              
VALLEYS TONIGHT...BUT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE STRENGTHEN SOME. WILL             
INCLUDE WIND SHEAR FOR LOZ AND SME...BUT WILL KEEP GUSTS TO AROUND 25           
KT AT JKL ON THE RIDGE TOP. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AS            
THE FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE            
EXPECTED...WITH STRATOCU AND A FEW -SHRA MOVING IN AFTER 15Z.                   
EXPECTING LOWER CIGS AND VIS AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-                  
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DUSTY/WJM                                                          
LONG TERM....GREIF                                                              
AVIATION...WJM                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1044 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE              
GRADIENT...AND WINDS ALOFT BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE           
ALREADY HAD SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH           
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND                   
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER             
LINES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...             
WHERE AC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT SATELLITE                
IMAGES AND RUC13 MOISTURE FIELDS...THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST              
THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER CAN BE                  
EXPECTED. OTHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTHWEST...WILL GO WITH              
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING TODAY FOR AN AVERAGE SKY COVER AS MID AND HIGH             
CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN THE           
COLDEST VALLEYS RAPIDLY REACHING THE 40S SO FAR. TWEAKED AFTERNOON              
HIGHS SOME BASED ON THE LATEST UPPER AIR DATA AND CURRENT TRENDS.               
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS OUT SOON.                                             
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                                         
WAA ALREADY EVIDENT WITH SRLY FLOW AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER           
30S ATTM. GUSTY WINDS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOP OBS IN TN              
AND ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...WINDS GUSTY FROM MIE TO SDF          
TO BWG TO MKL. NOTHING YET TO MEET NPW (WIND ADV) CRITERIA YET BUT              
THIS SHOULD CHANGE AFTER SUNRISE. STILL HAVE SOME SNOW IN OUR CNTRL             
ZONES TO GET RID OF SO TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB BUT SHOULD MAKE IT           
TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S IN OUR SNOW BELT ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE DAN           
BOONE NAT FOREST. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY. HAVE              
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE BEEN OUT OF TOUCH              
WITH CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS. WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS TODAY I AM             
ALSO EXPECTING OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT AS THE                 
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BE LATE TO ESTABLISH ...IF AT ALL.             
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                          
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY             
OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD           
ON OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE NORTHEAST ALONG             
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES DURING THE BREADTH OF THIS                
PERIOD. IT WILL BE NUDGED AND BUFFETED FROM THE NORTHWEST BY A                  
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF SHORTWAVES RUNNING FROM THE BASE OF THE             
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST IN FAST AND BROAD               
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP INTO THE OHIO            
VALLEY AND THEN TO EASTERN CANADA. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THESE WAVES               
ARE ILL TIMED AND DEFINED AMONGST THE MODELS. A BLENDED SOLUTION WAS            
FOLLOWED...THOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE FAR LESS IMPORTANT TO               
THIS FORECAST THAN IT NORMAL IS...GIVEN THE DETERMINATIVE ARCTIC AIR            
AIR MASS SLOSHING AROUND IN OUR NEIGHBORHOOD BENEATH THE UPPER                  
PATTERN. TO THAT END...THE DAY TO DAY EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE COLD           
AIR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A CRITICAL FACTOR            
IN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FAIRLY WET           
FORECAST. EARLY ON...A BLEND OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NAM12             
WAS FOLLOWED BEFORE MORE OF A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GFS AND 12Z ECMWF           
WAS PREFERRED FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH SATURDAY. INITIALLY...THIS                
RESULTED IN A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED BY THE              
INHERITED GRIDS AND THE GFS. FOLLOWING THAT...LATER IN THE WEEK...THE           
SLOSHING OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE BASED MORE ON THE SFC PRESSURE               
FEATURES AND THE RESULTING PATTERN. ACCORDINGLY...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF           
THE HPC PATTERN AND THE MID RANGE MODELS.                                       
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN EXTREME OSCILLATION OF COLD AIR AND            
ITS RESULTS ON THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN PERIODS OF WARMTH AS LOW               
PRESSURE WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA...RUNNING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC             
ZONE. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WET PERIOD WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FEEDING            
MOISTURE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD AND FAST...DEEP LAYER...SOUTHWEST           
FLOW. SPECIFICALLY...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL PRESS INTO THE CWA FROM THE            
NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY AS SHOWERS STREAM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE                 
FRONT. THE UNDERCUTTING COLD WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF MIXED               
PRECIPITATION OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...                   
LINGERING INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE THEN SENDS WARMER             
AIR BACK NORTH LATER TUESDAY WHILE THE CHANCE FOR LIQUID PCPN                   
CONTINUES. THIS WAVE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING THE COLD AIR AND              
ANOTHER THREAT FOR LINGERING MIXED PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY           
MORNING. FOR THURSDAY PROPER...THE NEXT SFC WAVE SENDS WARM AIR BACK            
NORTH...LASTING INTO THE NIGHT WITH COLD AIR PUSHING BACK INTO THE              
REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH...AT THIS POINT FOR               
MIXED PCPN FROM THE OVER RUNNING PCPN THAT WILL WORK BACK OVER THE              
AREA ON SATURDAY...ALL THE WHILE BRINGING THE NEXT BRIEF SURGE OF               
WARM AIR NORTHWARD. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MIXED             
PCPN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LESSER THREAT             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN                
GOING FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                
GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR AFFECTING US EARLY ON...FOLLOWED             
MORE OF A TEMPERATURE CURVE AND SPECIFIC VALUES FROM THE RAW NAM12.             
THIS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT RATHER            
THAN THE MAV. LATER ON...BLENDED THE RAW ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS                    
RESULTING IN MORE MODERATED MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THAT PART OF THE               
EXTENDED THAN THE MEX NUMBERS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH MORE OF A            
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG RANGE AND           
THEN NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MEX THROUGH SATURDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM            
THAT IS BREWING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES           
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE           
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.              
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF              
PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE             
WINDS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL           
BE AN ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A                  
DESCENDING LAYER OF 35-45KT WINDS BEGINNING AT 8Z. THE 15/0Z 850 HPA            
CHART SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...WITH A DISTINCT 55-70 KT LOW             
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ ARE           
IN THE 30-50 KT RANGE...AND AGAIN SUPPORT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR              
MENTIONED IN THE 6Z TAF. WINDS WILL BE CRITICAL DURING THE DAY TODAY            
AS WELL...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z...AS              
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND              
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE APPROACHING            
LOW BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. IN FACT...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO             
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY. ANY PRECIPITATION           
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS STORM...WILL NOT MAKE            
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-                  
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DUSTY/WJM                                                          
LONG TERM....GREIF                                                              
AVIATION...AR                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
933 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR                   
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY                 
INTO MONDAY WHILE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A                
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING EAST LATER TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                                  
SEE MARINE SECTION.                                                             
UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZFP TONIGHT FOR TEMPS TO DROP THEM BACK ESP                   
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS. LATEST RUC13 SFC TEMPS SPOT ON FOR               
THE MOST PART W/READINGS ACROSS THE N AND W ALREADY DROPPING BELOW              
ZERO. DOWNEAST AND THE COAST FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS                  
ATTM AND STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MORE DROP TO HAPPEN.                          
THEREFORE...WENT W/10-15 BELOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND W ESP SAINT                 
JOHN VALLEY...HOULTON AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE COLD                 
AIR DRAINAGE WILL OCCUR. 10 TO 15 BELOW IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NOT              
OUT OF THE QUESTION. DECIDED ON SINGLE NUMBERS W/SOME AREAS SEEING              
AROUND ZERO FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. CLOUDS MOVING              
IN FROM THE W WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF ACROSS THE W AND NW BY              
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
CONVECTIVE STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL              
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECREASE IN SOLAR RADIATION.                
COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES BEFORE CLOUDS DISSIPATE.              
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WILL                 
ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO                  
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH SINGLE                    
DIGITS FOR DOWNEAST. PREFER THE COLDER FWC GUIDANCE AS MET AND MAV              
HAVE BEEN TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES               
EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL                    
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY               
BOMBING OVER EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE                    
SUNDAY CREATING A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST DAY. A WEAK                         
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LIGHT                
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE                  
VERY LIGHT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW                      
PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN              
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION. ACROSS              
NORTHERN AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO               
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING                      
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW WILL                   
TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE REGION MONDAY...DRAWING A COLD FRONT TOWARD              
WESTERN MAINE LATE. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS                     
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL              
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH INCREASING                
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING                 
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY                  
NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH              
THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE              
COLD FRONT. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS                  
NORTHERN AREAS...NOT REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST UNTIL LATE. SNOW               
SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER THEN                      
DIMINISHING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO                  
INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING              
SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE ACROSS                   
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL               
BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL                       
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FINDS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD                      
GENERAL AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE RIDGED ACROSS                 
THE REGION. BY MIDDAY ON WED THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE E.                 
THE MODELS ARE A BIT AT ODDS WITH POSITION OF THE LOW THE GFS HAS               
THE LOW OVER THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS...THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW               
TRACKING E ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. BY THUR MORNING THE LOW WILL               
BE E OF THE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH THE FRONT                   
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE S GULF OF MAINE WATERS. THE MODELS ARE                
AGAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT THE TIMING IS A BIT OFF ABOUT 6                
HRS OUT OF PHASE. THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA FRI MORN                
ACCORDING TO THE GFS...FRI AFTERNOON ECMWF. OTHER THAN TIMING                   
ISSUES THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT ARE SIMILAR. BY 06Z SAT THE LOW                
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGHER PRESS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD                 
ACROSS THE AREA. LOADED THE GMOS AND ADJUSTED SKY AND POPS TO                   
BETTER SUPPORT ONE ANOTHER. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THE                
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE                 
GFS TRACK WOULD BRING THE PRECIP BAND FARTHER N INTO CTRL                       
ME...WERE THE ECMWF`S TRACK WOULD TAKE IT FARTHER S CONFINING THE               
PRECIP TO THE COASTAL AREA.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH           
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS               
WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS TO                  
REMAIN VFR. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS                   
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR                   
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. OCCASIONAL MVFR                       
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY...WITH                       
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR                        
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING               
THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS TUESDAY.                      
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH              
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 10Z FOR OUTER MARINE ZONES PER                
COLLABORATION W/GYX. WINDS/SEAS HOLDING AOA SCA LEVELS. THE                     
GUIDANCE IS TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE CONDITIONS DOWN PER 00Z OBS.               
CONDITIONS IN THE INLETS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA SO WILL                
DROP SCA FOR ANZ052 WITH THIS ISSUANCE. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS                 
AND NAM12 FOR WINDS AND A BLEND OF THE WNAWAVE AND SWAN FOR SEAS.               
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT                     
ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SEAS                  
REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL                
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH                   
THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON              
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS                                                           
LONG TERM...NORTON                                                              
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS                                                        
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1235 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                 
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF COLD                    
FRONTS AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION                   
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
HI PRES WILL BLD TO JUST W OF THE AREA TNGT. UNDR A CLR OR MSTLY                
CLR SKY...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 20S TO LWR 30S.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
QUIET WX IN STORE FOR THE WKND THRU MON...AS HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS              
THE REGION ON SAT...THEN SLIDE INTO THE ATLC FOR SUN AND MON.                   
DESPITE A SNY SKY...IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS                     
RANGING FM THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S. MSTLY CLR AND COLD SAT NGT WITH              
MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS (SBY) TO THE LWR 30S.                        
TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NR NORMAL ON SUN...WITH THE HI OFFSHR                     
PROVIDING SE OR S WNDS. UNDR A PRTLY TO MSTLY SNY SKY...MAX TEMPS               
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. MILD CONDS THEN EXPECTED ON               
MON...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HI PRES OVR THE ATLC AND AN                     
APPROACHING FRNT FM THE W PROVIDING SSW WNDS INTO THE REGION.                   
PRTLY SNY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 60S...CUD END UP WRMER.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A SERIES OF LOW PRES                
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT             
THRU WED NIGHT...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS (25-40%) DURING THAT                
TIME. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID PRECIP WITH TEMPS                
REMAINING ABOVE FRZ. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S MON                 
NIGHT...THEN NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50 TUE NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S                 
TO MID 60S ON BOTH TUE AND WED.                                                 
BEYOND WED NIGHT THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS BRINING               
ANOTHER LOW UP THRU THE REGION FROM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE                  
WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY THU                
THRU FRI. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND FOLLOW CLOSE              
TO HPC GUIDANCE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) FOR THE END OF             
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS THU WILL BE NEAR 50 TO NEAR 60...WITH LOWS IN THE              
UPR 20S TO UPR 30S THU NIGHT.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
SCT TO BKN SC DECK ARND 5K FT AND SOME GUSTY N-NW WNDS WILL CONT                
NXT SVRL HRS AS AN UPR LVL TROF CROSSES AREA NXT. XPCT THE STRNGR               
GUSTS (20-25KTS) ACROSS SERN TAF SITES. OTW...HIGH PRS BLDS INTO                
RGN THRU MONDAY RESULTING IN ONLY SCT CLDS AND LGHTR WNDS.                      
A SERIES OF FRONTS & LOW PRESSURE SYSTMS WILL BRING SCT SHWRS &                 
PSBL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TUE & WED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
N-NW SURGE CRNTLY ONGOING ERLY THIS AM WITH GUSTS BTWN 25-30 KTS                
ATTM. RUC KEEPS THESE WNDS GOING FOR SVRL MORE HRS B4 DMNSHG LATER              
THIS AM. SEAS STILL RANGING BTWN 5-6 FT. THUS...HAVE CONTD SCA ALL              
AREAS WITH 1 AM UPDATE. XPCT WNDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA LVLS                
AFTR SR. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND              
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE ON SUN.                      
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR HEADLINES (MARGINAL SCA`S AT THIS POINT) WOULD              
OCCUR MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE INCREASING S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE            
NEXT COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU               
THE WATERS TUE THRU WED.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ON AVERAGE...A GENERAL SWATH OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED OVER             
THE REGION FROM THIS PAST SYSTEM (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4                 
INCHES WERE RECORDED OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE). RUNOFF WILL                     
PRODUCE RIVER RISES WELL INTO THE THREE-QUARTER BANKFULL RANGE                  
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.                                                   
AS OF 3PM THE MEHERRIN RIVER LEVEL AT LAWRENCEVILLE WAS 15.23 FT                
AND RISING. IT IS FORECAST TO CREST TONIGHT AROUND 1AM JUST SHY OF              
16 FT...ONE FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WARNING IS OUT FOR                  
BRUNSWICK COUNTY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLWAKQ AND                                
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AKQ (CLICK ON RIVERS & LAKES AHPS) FOR FURTHER                  
INFORMATION AND UPDATES.                                                        
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR             
     ANZ630>633-656-658.                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-              
     652-654.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TMG                                                                  
NEAR TERM...TMG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMG                                                                
LONG TERM...JRL                                                                 
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...JRL/MPR                                                                
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1205 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR VORTEX IN THE VCNTY             
OF NW HUDSON BAY. ONE TROF EXTENDS S THRU INTO THE ERN CONUS WHILE              
ANOTHER TROF EXTENDS SW TO BRITISH COLUMIBA/PACIFIC NW. SHORTWAVE               
CURRENTLY SLAMMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL BE THE NEXT                 
IMPORTANT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE FCST AREA AS IT DROPS SE AND              
THEN LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT               
THE CURRENT TIME...NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE                
BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN/SRN                 
MANITOBA WILL PASS OVER THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT BEFORE FLOW BACKS SW            
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO THE ROCKIES.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/SAT)...                                                    
AS SHORTWAVE STREAKS INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG               
PUSH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER 285K SFC (AROUND 700MB) SPREADS ACROSS            
THE AREA. 18Z NAM NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA MATCHES UP WELL                
WITH WHERE HIGHER RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ARE NOW SHOWING UP IN NRN MN.            
MIXING RATIOS OF 1-2G/KG ARE AVBL...SUGGESTING 6HR SNOW                         
ACCUMULATIONS OF ROUGHLY 1-2 INCHES. HOWEVER...QUICK MOVEMENT WILL              
LIMIT AMOUNTS. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH ACROSS THE SW                  
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE N. LOW-LEVEL              
WINDS MAY HAVE ENOUGH OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO ADD A LITTLE LAKE                  
ENHANCMENT OVER PORTIONS OF SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE...BUT WINDS A BIT                  
HIGHER UP AROUND 850MB HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WRLY COMPONENT. SO ANY                
LAKE ENHANCMENT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO NO MORE             
THAN 2 INCHES IN THAT AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND               
WILL BE AT OR JUST A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN CURRENT TEMPS. EXPECT A               
STEADY RISING TREND DURING THE NIGHT UNDER THICKENING CLOUDS/WAA AND            
MOISTURE ADVECTION.                                                             
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES THRU THE DAY SAT...BUT ASCENT IS                
LESS FOCUSED THAN WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT. IT SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC             
-SN...BUT PTYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT                
ENOUGH DRYING MAY OCCUR ABOVE THE LOW-LEVELS THAT MOISTURE MAY NO               
LONGER EXTEND TO THE -10C ISOTHERM. HAVE THUS INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC             
MENTION OF -FZDZ EXCEPT IN THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT                    
DOWNSLOPE WITH SRLY WINDS.                                                      
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                                   
PERIOD BEGINS WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SW FLOW              
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. AT THE SFC...BROAD INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHES              
NE...ACROSS MN...WRN WI...AND WRN LK SUP...FROM 988MB LOW IN THE LEE            
OF THE ROCKIES. BROAD AREA OF WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280-285K               
SFC AS SWRLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT PCPN ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE AREA ON SAT NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER LK SUP AND ERN            
HALF OF THE CWA. LK SUP IS UNDER TIGHTENING H850-700 THERMAL                    
GRADIENT ALONG INVERTED TROUGH AND BEST H500-300 Q-VECT CONV...WHILE            
ERN HALF HAS BEST 280-290K LIFT AND COND PRES DEF. IN                           
ADDITION...EXPECT FAR ERN PART OF CWA TO HAVE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT               
OFF LK MI WITH MARGINAL DELTA T VALUES...AROUND 8-10C. EXPECT THIS              
ENHANCEMENT TO MAINLY BE DURING THE THE EVENING HOURS...AS H850                 
TEMPS GRADUALLY RISE TOWARDS -3C BY 12Z. EXPECT PCPN TO REMAIN SNOW             
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEP            
TEMP PROFILE BELOW ZERO. THERE IS A HINT OF SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR              
OVER THE CWA BETWEEN PCPN WAVES...WHICH MAY LIMIT ICE IN THE CLOUDS             
AND PRODUCE SOME FZDZ...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE....IT LOOKS             
LIKE RAIN MAY START TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE LK MI                     
SHORELINE AFTER 06Z...AS WBZ VALUES APPROACH 1.2-1.5KFT. THUS...HAVE            
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.                                   
FOR SUN...THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WNW SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS             
UPPER MI. 12Z NAM STRONGEST AND FARTHEST NW...AROUND 992MB AND                  
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SEND              
THE MID 990S LOW BETWEEN LANSE AND MQT. LATEST 12Z ECMWF CAME IN                
THIS AFTN AND SHIFTED THE LOW AND COLDER AIR SLIGHTLY TO THE                    
EAST...WITH THE LOW LOCATED AROUND IRON RIVER AT 00Z MON...COMPARED             
TO MARENISCO/WATERSMEET AREA ON 00Z RUN. LOW TRACK AND WARM AIR                 
WRAPPING AROUND WILL HAVE THE LARGEST EFFECT ON PCPN TYPE OVER FAR              
WRN UP. LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST               
NOW...BASED ON 12Z LOCAL REGWRF AND 12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AS               
ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND 0C STRETCHES FROM THE SFC TO H800 AT KIWD.              
12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...WITH TEMPS WARMING TO 2-3C                
BETWEEN SFC AND H800. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER SW                
PART OF CWA AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.                   
KEWEENAW WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF RAIN/SNOW...AS WARM AIR ATTEMPTS TO             
WRAP UP ON SUN. LATEST LOCAL REGWRF / GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT CMX               
HINT AT A LONGER RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SITUATION LATE SUN               
AFTN/EVENING. ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF FZRA OVER THE W CNTRL PART              
OF THE CWA SUN MORN. SFC TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...BUT              
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON SFC TEMPS FOR AMOUNT OF FZRA. WITH             
TEMPS NEARLY STEADY ON SAT NIGHT AND THEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS                
BRINGING MORE WARM AIR N...DO NOT SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SFC TO             
HAVE WIDESPREAD FZRA...EVEN THOUGH SNOW COVER AND RECENT COLD TEMPS             
HAVE GROUND TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO FINE            
TUNE PCPN TYPE WITH FUTURE SHIFTS. STILL EXPECTING A FAIRLY STRONG              
AREA OF PCPN TO MOVE FROM S TO N ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN MORN INTO                
EARLY AFTN...AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130KT JET PUSHES INTO NRN WI AND            
PWAT VALUES PEAK AROUND 0.6-0.8IN. STRONG MID LVL LAPSE RATES                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AROUND 7C/KM BETWEEN H700-500 MAY BE ENOUGH              
TO GENERATE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHOWALTERS ARE STILL                      
MARGINAL...2C...SO CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT THUNDER. NO HEADLINES AT              
THIS TIME...BUT THINKING THAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT            
ALONG THE WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...DUE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND THE            
MIX OF PCPN AT TIME...MAKING ROADS A LITTLE SLICK.                              
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS ON SUN NIGHT...AS DRIER AIR MOVES             
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THE LES STARTS TO KICK IN. BIGGEST ITEM            
OF NOTE IS THE RAPID DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED FROM W TO E ACROSS THE              
CWA. AFTER THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPS ON SUN...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE W             
TO DROP FROM AROUND FREEZING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY                 
DAYBREAK MON. THE CNTRL CWA WILL ALSO SEE A DROP...BUT NOT AS                   
SUBSTANTIAL AS THE W...WHILE THE E IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH                 
UNTIL MON. THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY FREEZE ANY WATER/MOISTURE ON THE                 
ROADWAYS AND MAKE FOR A VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL PERIOD SUN NIGHT INTO             
MON. EXPECT A GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ON MON...WITH               
THE DAYS HIGHS OCCURRING AROUND DAYBREAK. LES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE             
W ON SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUES...AS H850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE             
LOW -20S. WITH A WNW WIND...EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL LES AREAS OVER               
THE WEST AND NEAR LK SUP E OF MQT TO SEE THE MOST SNOW. STRONG WINDS            
ON MON SHOULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW OVER THE              
W...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LK SUP SHORELINE. KEWEENAW SHOULD SEE THE              
STRONGEST WINDS ON MON...WITH GUSTS TOWARDS 40MPH...AS THE LOW EXITS            
AND PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LES               
ACCUMULATION OVER THE W...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW BEING PLATE/COLUMN              
TYPE...AS DGZ DROPS TO THE SFC WITH THE CAA AND STRONG WINDS BREAK              
UP ANY OF THE LARGER FLAKES. ;ES WILL START TO SHIFT OVER LK SUP ON             
MON NIGHT AND TUES...AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW AHEAD OF A HIGH SLIDING            
OUT OF THE PLAINS.                                                              
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST DAY 4...AS MODELS HAVE SOME            
DIFFERENCES IN THEIR UPR LVL AND SFC SOLNS. BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF                  
SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE CWA                    
SOMETIME ON TUES NIGHT OR WED...WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE SRN               
GREAT LKS OR OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT            
TIME PERIOD FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. BEHIND THE WAVE...HIGH                 
PRESS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL GIVE US NW FLOW OFF LK              
SUP. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE LOW -20C RANGE...HAVE CHANCE POPS IN                
TRADITIONAL NW WIND LES LOCATIONS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT.            
WINDS BEGIN TO BACK A LITTLE MORE WRLY ON FRI...SO HAVE TRANSITIONED            
POPS TO BE MAINLY OVER W AND KEWEENAW. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW            
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND SOME                      
MODERATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH -SN AS MOISTURE AND                  
WARMER AIR STREAM NE INTO THE UPPER LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A                 
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AFTER PASSAGE OF                     
DISTURBANCE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX SAT MORNING                
UNDER CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARMER/MOIST AIR. IN THE                           
AFTERNOON...LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL BE COMING IN WITH A LOWER                   
STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG WITH THIS AS WELL AS WAA OUT                 
AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN. DOWNSLOPE COMES INTO               
PLAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE EVENING...SO CONDITIONS COULD GO              
BACK TO MVFR AT KCMX WITH A SE WIND CAUSED BY DOWNSLOPE OFF THE                 
HURON MOUNTAINS.                                                                
AT KSAW...CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS WITH PASSING              
DISTURBANCE. UNDER CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARMER/MOIST AIR...MVFR               
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING AFTER -SN ENDS. ALSO...INCREASING               
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN LLWS OVERNIGHT THRU MID MORNING SAT.             
IN THE AFTERNOON...LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL BE COMING IN WITH A LOWER            
STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG WITH THIS AS WELL AS WAA OUT                 
AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS             
HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES E OF THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER            
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE                
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SOME SAT AS PRES                    
GRADIENT SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRES WILL            
THEN TRACK NE...CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE                  
LOW...SRLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-30KT SAT NIGHT OVER ERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR. INCREASE IN WINDS WILL HOLD OFF OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR                
UNTIL SUN WHEN NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON THE BACKSIDE             
OF A SW-NE ORIENTED TROF BISECTING THE LAKE. LOW WILL TRACK ALONG               
THE TROF SUN NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...EXPECT GALE FORCE W TO             
NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN NIGHT/MON UNDER                  
INTENSE CAA REGIME.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
    GALE WARNING 5 AM SAT TO 1 PM EST MON LMZ248-250.                           
    GALE WATCH SUN AFTN THRU MON AFTN LMZ221.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...SRF                                                                 
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
410 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES ATTM. AT 4 PM...THE SFC LOW WAS SE OF               
SIREN...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND 12 DEGREES AT MOOSE LAKE...AND 41              
DEGREES AND A SOUTH WIND AT LADYSMITH. HEAVY SNOW AND WIDESPREAD                
HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE                         
EVENING...GRADUALLY IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH                    
COLDER AIR WILL BLAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THE                         
COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH NOON ON                     
MONDAY.                                                                         
AS SFC LOW PUSHES INTO NRN WIS...TRANSITIONS ZONE HAS PIVOTED NOW               
INTO THE SE ZONES...GENERALLY FROM ASKOV IN PINE COUNTY...TO                    
HAYWARD...AND NE HURLEY. THE SFC LOW HAS TAKEN A SLIGHTLY FURTHER               
WEST TRACK THAN PREV ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE RA/FZRA                  
ZONE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST...INTO PINE COUNTY. THE                     
FREEZING PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH              
8 PM...AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND TEMPERATURES DRASTICALLY FALL              
15-20 DEGREES F IN A VERY SHORT TIME.                                           
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING... IT IS LIKELY THAT               
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE INT THE TWIN PORTS REGION.                     
HOWEVER...WINDS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE                
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO PERSIST INTO                  
MONDAY MORNING.                                                                 
INCREASED POPS AND SN AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR                
ON MONDAY WHERE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND TRAJECTORIES IS EXPECTED              
TO BRING ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES TO THE SNOW BELT REGION OF NORTHERN              
WISCONSIN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF +SN OVER THE NRN HALF              
OF MN. MOST SNOWFALL OBSERVERS IN NE MN ARE REPORTING 5-7 INCHES                
OF SN ACCUMULATIONS AS OF 1 PM WITH +SN CONTINUING. SEVERAL                     
SPOTTERS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE MEASURED 1.5-2 INCHES PER HR                 
RATES. THE GREATEST STORM TOTAL ATTM...IS 9 INCHES IN WEST                      
DULUTH. THE STRONG WINDS AND DRIFTING ARE PROVING TO MAKE ACCURATE              
SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS DIFFICULT.                                                
A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DEPICTED IN THE 19Z SFC                        
OBS. TEMPS RANGING FROM 8F BELOW ZERO AT BAUDETTE MN...18F ABOVE                
ZERO AT THE DULUTH AP...AND 36F WITH RA AT PHILLIPS WI. THE TIGHT               
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN STRONG WINDS WITH MOST                   
LOCATIONS IN NRN MN GUSTING AROUND 30KT. THE WX STATIONS AT                     
KDYT/DULM5 CONTINUE TO REPORT A SUSTAINED 30-35 KT WIND WITH GUSTS              
AROUND 45 KT. WIDESPREAD WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WITH VSBYS OF 1/4SM               
OR LESS PERSIST IN THE TWIN PORTS REGION.                                       
TURNING TO RA/SN TRANSITION ZONE IN NW WIS. THE ASOS AT KHYR IS                 
CURRENTLY REPORTING 30F AND FZRA...WHILE JUST TO THE ESE AT KPBH                
THE SFC STATION IS REPORTING 36F AND RA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH                
THE CURRENT FCST SO NO SIG CHANGES MADE. THIS ZONE WILL SLOWLY                  
SHIFT EAST AS IT PIVOTS BACK TO THE NW...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO                 
BUILD FURTHER W. ONCE WINDS BACK TO THE N THEN NW...STRONG CAA                  
WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY FOR ALL SN.                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS IN FCST TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT                   
OBSERVATIONS. FOR PAST SEVERAL HRS KDYT AND DULM5 HAVE BEEN                     
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS. AT 1530Z KDYT                
HAD A GUST TO 45 KT. EXPECTED THESE WINDS TO PERSIST...OR BECOME                
STRONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN WIS.               
UP T0 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE               
DULUTH/SUPERIOR HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
AREA OF +SN AND 1/2SM OR LESS VSBY CONTINUING GOOD PACE LIFTING                 
NWRD...WITH LEADING EDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE TWIN PORTS IN THE                
NEXT 30 MIN.                                                                    
WATCHING SOUTH SHORE ZONES FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD                   
WARNING. THE SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY GUSTING AROUND 25KT...BUT                
WILL KEEP IN CONTACT WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN                              
BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES IN CASE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS BECOME              
WIDESPREAD.                                                                     
ALSO KEEPING CLOSE WATCH ON RA/SN TRANSITION ZONE THAT IS                       
CURRENTLY SET UP ALONG THE DLH/MPX CWA BORDER IN NRN WISCONSIN.                 
LATEST SFC OBS ARE REPORTING RA FROM OSCEOLA...TO RICE LAKE AND                 
LADYSMITH...AND JUST SN JUST TO THE NORTH FROM CAMBRIDGE...TO                   
SIREN...AND PHILLIPS.                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION.                 
DOME OF COLD AIR IN SFC/85H LAYER HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF ACROSS NW               
WIS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATION OF RUC13 THERMAL/WIND FIELDS IN               
BDRY LAYER INDICATE THAT COLDER AIR IS UNDERCUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. 925H WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTH TO EAST ALONG A RZN TO                
HYR TO PBH LINE. THIS HAS PUSHED MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LOW                   
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH TO ERN PART OF MPX CWA. BAYFIELD PENINSULA                 
APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING ENHANCED PRECIP FROM LONG TRAJECTORY                 
DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST MSAS SHOWS WELL DEFINED SFC INVERTED                 
TROUGH FROM LOW OVER ERN NEB TO EAX TO HOUGHTON IN UP OF MI. 3HR                
PRESSRR OVER SERN PART OF CWA CURRENTLY. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS               
LARGE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF              
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF. STRONG UPPER JETS POISED                 
OVER ONTARIO... WITH NRN BRANCH... AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF SRN                  
PLAINS JET TRANSLATING NE INTO SRN MN/WI.                                       
TODAY/TONIGHT...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO EXISTING FCST WAS TO UPGRADE         
BURNETT/WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES TO WSW. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE              
EXISTING THERMAL BDRY IN LOW LAYERS AND UNDERCUTTING OF COLD AIR                
SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM. FSCT                   
SNDGS ALSO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
STILL EXPECTED TODAY ALONG HEAD OF LAKE AS FUNNELING OF HIGHER                  
SPEED AIR OCCURS. DYT ALREADY GUSTING TO ABOUT 40MPH. MAJOR                     
FORCING FACTORS STILL IN PLAY. A LARGE AREA OF MDT/STRONG                       
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPPER TROF ADVECTS EAST TODAY.                
COUPLED JETS WILL ADD TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. SOME MIX OF                     
SN/IP/FZRA ACROSS EXTREME ERN CWA AS SFC LOW GETS CLOSER THIS                   
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND SATURATION OCCURING               
IN DEEP LAYER SUSPECT THAT POPTYP MAY BE MORE A WET SNOW OR SLEET               
VS COLD RAIN IN THIS AREA. WINDCHILL VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED                     
ADVISORY CATEGORY TONIGHT BUT DID NOT WANT TO ADD ANOTHER ADVISORY              
TO BUSY SLATE. WILL VERBALIZE THE THREAT IN THE WSW AND HWO                     
PRODUCTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE                    
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW ZERO PERHAPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED AS GUSTY WINDS PUSH                  
FLUFFY LOW DENSITY FLAKES ALL OVER THE PLACE.                                   
MONDAY...STORM LOOSENS ITS GRIP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER CWA.                   
SN/BS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING MOST AREAS. WITH 85/70H RH                 
STILL ABOVE 60 PERCENT MOST OF DAY...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW                 
FOR SNOWBELT WITH VERY HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND              
WARNING IN THAT AREA.                                                           
EXTENDED....TUE THRU SAT...                                                     
SEVERAL S/WVS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION...REQUIRING AT LEAST SOME LOW             
POPS. THE DRY ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT ANY                   
POTENTIAL PRECIP. THE MOST LIKELY DRY PD WILL BE WED/THU UNDER WK               
RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHO SRN ZONES MAY RECEIVE SOME PRECIP BEING ON THE            
NRN FRINGES OF A SFC SYSTEM MOVG UP THE OH VLY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF              
SHOW THIS SYSTEM...ALTHO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SN/FG/BLSN WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PD             
AS MAJ WINT STORM MOVES FROM NEB TO LK SUP BY MON MRNG. AT THAT TIME            
CONDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY.                  
STRONG NE WINDS WILL SIFT TO THE NW AS THE STORM PASSES...THEN                  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MON.                                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH -10  -5 -25  -7 / 100  30  10  20                                           
INL -11  -6 -33  -9 / 100  30  10  10                                           
BRD  -9  -4 -25  -3 / 100  20  10  30                                           
HYR  -4   1 -25  -1 /  80  30  10  30                                           
ASX  -2   3 -20   0 /  90  60  10  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR CROW WING-PINE-             
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL ST.                
     LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                   
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN                           
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST.           
     LOUIS.                                                                     
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR BURNETT-SAWYER-             
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-          
     IRON.                                                                      
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR DOUGLAS.                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR PRICE.                   
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR             
     LSZ121-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                               
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-LSZ145-               
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     LSZ144-LSZ145.                                                             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-             
     LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                             
$$                                                                              
GRANING/EOM                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
151 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF +SN OVER THE NRN HALF              
OF MN. MOST SNOWFALL OBSERVERS IN NE MN ARE REPORTING 5-7 INCHES                
OF SN ACCUMULATIONS AS OF 1 PM WITH +SN CONTINUING. SEVERAL                     
SPOTTERS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE MEASURED 1.5-2 INCHES PER HR                 
RATES. THE GREATEST STORM TOTAL ATTM...IS 9 INCHES IN WEST                      
DULUTH. THE STRONG WINDS AND DRIFTING ARE PROVING TO MAKE ACCURATE              
SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS DIFFICULT.                                                
A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DEPICTED IN THE 19Z SFC                        
OBS. TEMPS RANGING FROM 8F BELOW ZERO AT BAUDETTE MN...18F ABOVE                
ZERO AT THE DULUTH AP...AND 36F WITH RA AT PHILLIPS WI. THE TIGHT               
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN STRONG WINDS WITH MOST                   
LOCATIONS IN NRN MN GUSTING AROUND 30KT. THE WX STATIONS AT                     
KDYT/DULM5 CONTINUE TO REPORT A SUSTAINED 30-35 KT WIND WITH GUSTS              
AROUND 45 KT. WIDESPREAD WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WITH VSBYS OF 1/4SM               
OR LESS PERSIST IN THE TWIN PORTS REGION.                                       
TURNING TO RA/SN TRANSITION ZONE IN NW WIS. THE ASOS AT KHYR IS                 
CURRENTLY REPORTING 30F AND FZRA...WHILE JUST TO THE ESE AT KPBH                
THE SFC STATION IS REPORTING 36F AND RA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH                
THE CURRENT FCST SO NO SIG CHANGES MADE. THIS ZONE WILL SLOWLY                  
SHIFT EAST AS IT PIVOTS BACK TO THE NW...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO                 
BUILD FURTHER W. ONCE WINDS BACK TO THE N THEN NW...STRONG CAA                  
WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY FOR ALL SN.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS IN FCST TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT                   
OBSERVATIONS. FOR PAST SEVERAL HRS KDYT AND DULM5 HAVE BEEN                     
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS. AT 1530Z KDYT                
HAD A GUST TO 45 KT. EXPECTED THESE WINDS TO PERSIST...OR BECOME                
STRONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN WIS.               
UP T0 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE               
DULUTH/SUPERIOR HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
AREA OF +SN AND 1/2SM OR LESS VSBY CONTINUING GOOD PACE LIFTING                 
NWRD...WITH LEADING EDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE TWIN PORTS IN THE                
NEXT 30 MIN.                                                                    
WATCHING SOUTH SHORE ZONES FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD                   
WARNING. THE SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY GUSTING AROUND 25KT...BUT                
WILL KEEP IN CONTACT WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN                              
BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES IN CASE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS BECOME              
WIDESPREAD.                                                                     
ALSO KEEPING CLOSE WATCH ON RA/SN TRANSITION ZONE THAT IS                       
CURRENTLY SET UP ALONG THE DLH/MPX CWA BORDER IN NRN WISCONSIN.                 
LATEST SFC OBS ARE REPORTING RA FROM OSCEOLA...TO RICE LAKE AND                 
LADYSMITH...AND JUST SN JUST TO THE NORTH FROM CAMBRIDGE...TO                   
SIREN...AND PHILLIPS.                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION.                 
DOME OF COLD AIR IN SFC/85H LAYER HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF ACROSS NW               
WIS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATION OF RUC13 THERMAL/WIND FIELDS IN               
BDRY LAYER INDICATE THAT COLDER AIR IS UNDERCUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. 925H WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTH TO EAST ALONG A RZN TO                
HYR TO PBH LINE. THIS HAS PUSHED MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LOW                   
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH TO ERN PART OF MPX CWA. BAYFIELD PENINSULA                 
APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING ENHANCED PRECIP FROM LONG TRAJECTORY                 
DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST MSAS SHOWS WELL DEFINED SFC INVERTED                 
TROUGH FROM LOW OVER ERN NEB TO EAX TO HOUGHTON IN UP OF MI. 3HR                
PRESSRR OVER SERN PART OF CWA CURRENTLY. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS               
LARGE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF              
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF. STRONG UPPER JETS POISED                 
OVER ONTARIO... WITH NRN BRANCH... AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF SRN                  
PLAINS JET TRANSLATING NE INTO SRN MN/WI.                                       
TODAY/TONIGHT...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO EXISTING FCST WAS TO UPGRADE         
BURNETT/WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES TO WSW. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE              
EXISTING THERMAL BDRY IN LOW LAYERS AND UNDERCUTTING OF COLD AIR                
SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM. FSCT                   
SNDGS ALSO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
STILL EXPECTED TODAY ALONG HEAD OF LAKE AS FUNNELING OF HIGHER                  
SPEED AIR OCCURS. DYT ALREADY GUSTING TO ABOUT 40MPH. MAJOR                     
FORCING FACTORS STILL IN PLAY. A LARGE AREA OF MDT/STRONG                       
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPPER TROF ADVECTS EAST TODAY.                
COUPLED JETS WILL ADD TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. SOME MIX OF                     
SN/IP/FZRA ACROSS EXTREME ERN CWA AS SFC LOW GETS CLOSER THIS                   
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND SATURATION OCCURING               
IN DEEP LAYER SUSPECT THAT POPTYP MAY BE MORE A WET SNOW OR SLEET               
VS COLD RAIN IN THIS AREA. WINDCHILL VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED                     
ADVISORY CATEGORY TONIGHT BUT DID NOT WANT TO ADD ANOTHER ADVISORY              
TO BUSY SLATE. WILL VERBALIZE THE THREAT IN THE WSW AND HWO                     
PRODUCTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE                    
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW ZERO PERHAPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED AS GUSTY WINDS PUSH                  
FLUFFY LOW DENSITY FLAKES ALL OVER THE PLACE.                                   
MONDAY...STORM LOOSENS ITS GRIP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER CWA.                   
SN/BS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING MOST AREAS. WITH 85/70H RH                 
STILL ABOVE 60 PERCENT MOST OF DAY...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW                 
FOR SNOWBELT WITH VERY HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND              
WARNING IN THAT AREA.                                                           
EXTENDED....TUE THRU SAT...                                                     
SEVERAL S/WVS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION...REQUIRING AT LEAST SOME LOW             
POPS. THE DRY ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT ANY                   
POTENTIAL PRECIP. THE MOST LIKELY DRY PD WILL BE WED/THU UNDER WK               
RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHO SRN ZONES MAY RECEIVE SOME PRECIP BEING ON THE            
NRN FRINGES OF A SFC SYSTEM MOVG UP THE OH VLY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF              
SHOW THIS SYSTEM...ALTHO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SN/FG/BLSN WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PD             
AS MAJ WINT STORM MOVES FROM NEB TO LK SUP BY MON MRNG. AT THAT TIME            
CONDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY.                  
STRONG NE WINDS WILL SIFT TO THE NW AS THE STORM PASSES...THEN                  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MON.                                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH -10  -5 -21   0 /  80  40  10  20                                           
INL -11  -6 -28  -5 /  80  40  10  20                                           
BRD  -9  -4 -18   1 /  80  20  10  20                                           
HYR  -4   1 -19   2 /  80  30  10  20                                           
ASX  -2   3 -14   5 /  80  50  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR CROW WING-PINE-             
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL ST.                
     LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                   
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN                           
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST.           
     LOUIS.                                                                     
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR BURNETT-SAWYER-             
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-          
     IRON.                                                                      
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR DOUGLAS.                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR PRICE.                   
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     LSZ121-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                               
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-LSZ145-               
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ144-              
     LSZ145.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-              
     LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                             
$$                                                                              
GRANING/EOM                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1218 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD. SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSP AND WILL               
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND               
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE LOW... CHANGES PCPN TO SNOW               
IN MOST OF THAT AREA. NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN              
ABOVE FREEZING... HOWEVER AS COLD AIR ARRIVES NEAR AND SOUTH OF                 
THE LOW THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT                    
FREEZING PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF               
SUPERCOOLED DROPS IN THE LOW LEVELS. IN GENERAL... THESE                        
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE                  
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS EVENING... WITH ANY PCPN EXPECTED TO               
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT ALL LOCATIONS... WITH KMSP... KRNH...                 
AND KEAU BEING THE ONLY SITES WITH ANY REAL PCPN TYPE ISSUES FROM               
18Z THROUGH 00Z. VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW OVER THE WEST               
WHERE FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL HOLD THEM BELOW 1/2 MILE AND                
BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE... VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY               
VARY FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS ACROSS THE                  
AREA WILL BE IFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD... IMPROVING TO MVFR                    
OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS                
WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...                      
SUSTAINED NEAR 20KT AND GUSTING ABOVE 30KT FOR MUCH OF THE                      
NIGHT... BEFORE WINDING DOWN ON MONDAY. THANKS TO CWSU ZMP FOR                  
COLLABORATION ON KMSP CONDITIONS... THEIR FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE                 
INCLUDED BELOW.                                                                 
INPUT FROM CWSU ZMP... CURRENTLY WE HAVE A LOW OVR NE IA... A WRM               
AND QS FNT N OF MSP AND THRU THE U.P. MICH... AND A COLD FNT DOWN               
OVR ERN NE. LOW IS XPCTD TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVS THRU SE MN... INCRSG              
THE SFC PRES GRAD... AND THEN BEGIN TO OCLD AS LOW MOVS OVR THE U.P.            
AT THE 24-HR POINT. LOCAL SFC TEMPS ARE XPCTD TO DROP AT A RATE OF              
5 F DEGREES PER HR WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FNT AFT 12Z. WITH ATMOS                 
COLUMN DROPPING ENTIRELY BLO FZG BY 20Z... PCPN WILL TURN OVR TO SN.            
ALTHOUGH THE MDLS ARE LESS DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS TODAY...                
ONCE AGAIN NO ONE MDL SEEMS TO HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS. I BELIEVE MM5              
IS BETTER HANDLING THE CLDS... WHILE NAM HAS A MORE REASONABLE PCPN             
OUTLOOK. I`D START THE CLDS AT BKN005 OVC010... DROPPING TO OVC005              
FROM 21Z THRU 01Z. AFTER THAT THE CIGS RISE TO 015 THRU 06Z... THEN             
025 THRU 18Z. THE MM5 WOULD LEAD ONE TO XPCT CIGS NEAR THE SFC                  
TOMMOROW AM... BUT THE GUSTY SFC WNDS AND LOWERING BNDRY LYR                    
ABSOLUTE HUM CONVINCE ME THAT THAT WON/T HAPPEN. I/M FINE WITH THE              
VIS TREND AS FCSTD IN THE 18Z TAF. THE LOWERING VIS TONIGHT ARE                 
MORE A RESULT OF GUSTY WNDS BLOWING THE SN AROUND THAN THE ACTUAL               
SN RATE; NO MDL SEEMS TO ACCOUNT FOR BLSN. I ALSO AGREE WITH                    
ENDING THE SN BY 12Z. THE WNDS ARE ALMOST A STRAIGHT-FORWARD FCST               
COMPARED TO EVERYTHING ELSE. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR RIGHT AT TAF                    
TIME... SWITCHING THE DIR TO 290-300. STEADY SPDS COULD BE ABV                  
20KT BY 21Z... RISING TO 24KT BY 06Z. AFT 06Z SPDS DROP STEADILY                
TO 10KT BY 00Z AND 5KT BY END OF TAF.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 930 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                                             
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF PCPN LIFTING NORTH AND                       
BEGINNING TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. PCPN TYPE GOES FROM RAIN TO SNOW              
AS YOU MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PCPN AREA... WITH               
SOME SLEET IN THE TRANSITION ZONE. THERE IS SOME FZDZ AND FREEZING              
RAIN AROUND... ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY IN THE LIGHTER                  
PCPN SOUTH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN... PRIMARILY FROM NEAR                      
LITCHFIELD SOUTHWEST TO REDWOOD FALLS. THINKING IS THAT THIS AREA               
IS SEEING THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT AS THE PCPN MOVES NORTH...               
AND HAS AN ENTIRE SUB-FREEZING SOUNDING... BUT IS NOT COLD ENOUGH               
TO GET ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM IN THE SATURATED LAYER. THIS COULD                  
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT OF A HEADACHE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL               
AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR                
SURGES IN... BUT THE MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS LIMITED... SO THERE                 
CONTINUES TO BE A NEED TO MENTION SOME FZRA/FZDZ IN THE FORECAST.               
DEEPER MOISTURE DOES EVENTUALLY ARRIVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE                  
SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVE THROUGH THE METRO NORTHEAST INTO                         
WISCONSIN... WHICH WILL WORK TO TAKE CARE OF THIS ISSUE. THE RUC                
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES... WIND                 
FIELDS... AND LOW POSITION... AND FAVOR ITS DEPICTION OF THINGS                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY... WHICH LINES UP REASONABLY WELL              
WITH THE PREVIOUS NAM FORECASTS. WITH THAT SAID... THE CURRENT                  
HEADLINES LOOK OK FOR THE MOMENT... BUT THERE MAY BE SOME NEED TO               
EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTHEAST IF THERE IS                  
MORE IN THE WAY OF FZDZ/FZRA IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF MID-                 
LEVEL DRYING. THE REMAINS ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS STILL LOOK ON                 
TRACK... WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW/PCPN LIKELY                 
ANCHORING ITSELF VERY SOON BEFORE PIVOTING THEN LIFTING                         
NORTHEAST... KEEPING THE SAME AREAS WITHIN THE ZONE OF FAVORABLE                
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR AN EXTENDED                    
PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS THE                      
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THIS MAIN PCPN BAND WILL ANCHOR FROM NEAR                     
GRANITE FALLS NORTHEAST THROUGH ST CLOUD TO MORA... WITH AREAS                  
NORTH OF THAT SEEING THE GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL... WHICH LINES UP              
WELL WITH CURRENT WARNINGS. STRONGEST WINDS OWING TO THE PRESSURE               
GRADIENT... ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTIONS... AND SURFACE ROUGHNESS                  
ISSUES WILL BE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE              
FORECAST AREA... WITH THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS LOOKING OK                  
WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THOSE STRONG WINDS MESH WITH EXPECTED                     
SNOWFALL. THE METRO AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH SOME FZDZ/FZRA POSSIBLE TOWARD MID                
AFTERNOON AS THE SOUNDING COOLS BELOW FREEZING YET THE MID LEVELS               
REMAIN TOO DRY TO SEED THINGS WITH ICE NUCLEI. ONCE AGAIN... WILL               
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL WITH RESPECT TO EXTENDING                 
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REGARDLESS... THE COLD AIR WILL                    
ARRIVE IN EARNEST ON THE HEELS OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AROUND AND              
AFTER 3PM IN THE METRO... WHICH COULD WORK TO QUICKLY ICE UP THE                
CURRENTLY WET SURFACES EVEN IF FREEZING PCPN DOESN/T MATERIALIZE.               
WILL BE WORKING ON SOME UPDATES... WITH UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE                  
FORECAST COMING... ALTHOUGH CHANGES SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST MONDAY              
     FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-                  
     DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC                  
     QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MORRISON-NICOLLET-                 
     POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-                  
     STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-                       
     WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                                           
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-          
     LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                          
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BENTON-                
     KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-STEARNS-TODD.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CHISAGO-            
     ISANTI-MEEKER-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT.                           
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-             
     POLK-RUSK.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/PDP                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
950 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS IN FCST TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT                   
OBSERVATIONS. FOR PAST SEVERAL HRS KDYT AND DULM5 HAVE BEEN                     
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS. AT 1530Z KDYT                
HAD A GUST TO 45 KT. EXPECTED THESE WINDS TO PERSIST...OR BECOME                
STRONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN WIS.               
UP T0 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE               
DULUTH/SUPERIOR HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
AREA OF +SN AND 1/2SM OR LESS VSBY CONTINUING GOOD PACE LIFTING                 
NWRD...WITH LEADING EDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE TWIN PORTS IN THE                
NEXT 30 MIN.                                                                    
WATCHING SOUTH SHORE ZONES FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD                   
WARNING. THE SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY GUSTING AROUND 25KT...BUT                
WILL KEEP IN CONTACT WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN                              
BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES IN CASE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS BECOME              
WIDESPREAD.                                                                     
ALSO KEEPING CLOSE WATCH ON RA/SN TRANSITION ZONE THAT IS                       
CURRENTLY SET UP ALONG THE DLH/MPX CWA BORDER IN NRN WISCONSIN.                 
LATEST SFC OBS ARE REPORTING RA FROM OSCEOLA...TO RICE LAKE AND                 
LADYSMITH...AND JUST SN JUST TO THE NORTH FROM CAMBRIDGE...TO                   
SIREN...AND PHILLIPS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
..MAJOR STORM AIMING FOR NORTHLAND...                                           
..SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...                                    
...DRAMATIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND TODAY...                           
....WINTER STORM WARNING NOW INCLUDES MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...            
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION.                 
DOME OF COLD AIR IN SFC/85H LAYER HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF ACROSS NW               
WIS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATION OF RUC13 THERMAL/WIND FIELDS IN               
BDRY LAYER INDICATE THAT COLDER AIR IS UNDERCUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. 925H WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTH TO EAST ALONG A RZN TO                
HYR TO PBH LINE. THIS HAS PUSHED MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LOW                   
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH TO ERN PART OF MPX CWA. BAYFIELD PENINSULA                 
APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING ENHANCED PRECIP FROM LONG TRAJECTORY                 
DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST MSAS SHOWS WELL DEFINED SFC INVERTED                 
TROUGH FROM LOW OVER ERN NEB TO EAX TO HOUGHTON IN UP OF MI. 3HR                
PRESSRR OVER SERN PART OF CWA CURRENTLY. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS               
LARGE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF              
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF. STRONG UPPER JETS POISED                 
OVER ONTARIO... WITH NRN BRANCH... AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF SRN                  
PLAINS JET TRANSLATING NE INTO SRN MN/WI.                                       
TODAY/TONIGHT...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO EXISTING FCST WAS TO UPGRADE         
BURNETT/WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES TO WSW. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE              
EXISTING THERMAL BDRY IN LOW LAYERS AND UNDERCUTTING OF COLD AIR                
SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM. FSCT                   
SNDGS ALSO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
STILL EXPECTED TODAY ALONG HEAD OF LAKE AS FUNNELING OF HIGHER                  
SPEED AIR OCCURS. DYT ALREADY GUSTING TO ABOUT 40MPH. MAJOR                     
FORCING FACTORS STILL IN PLAY. A LARGE AREA OF MDT/STRONG                       
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPPER TROF ADVECTS EAST TODAY.                
COUPLED JETS WILL ADD TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. SOME MIX OF                     
SN/IP/FZRA ACROSS EXTREME ERN CWA AS SFC LOW GETS CLOSER THIS                   
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND SATURATION OCCURING               
IN DEEP LAYER SUSPECT THAT POPTYP MAY BE MORE A WET SNOW OR SLEET               
VS COLD RAIN IN THIS AREA. WINDCHILL VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED                     
ADVISORY CATEGORY TONIGHT BUT DID NOT WANT TO ADD ANOTHER ADVISORY              
TO BUSY SLATE. WILL VERBALIZE THE THREAT IN THE WSW AND HWO                     
PRODUCTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE                    
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW ZERO PERHAPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED AS GUSTY WINDS PUSH                  
FLUFFY LOW DENSITY FLAKES ALL OVER THE PLACE.                                   
MONDAY...STORM LOOSENS ITS GRIP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER CWA.                   
SN/BS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING MOST AREAS. WITH 85/70H RH                 
STILL ABOVE 60 PERCENT MOST OF DAY...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW                 
FOR SNOWBELT WITH VERY HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND              
WARNING IN THAT AREA.                                                           
EXTENDED....TUE THRU SAT...                                                     
SEVERAL S/WVS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION...REQUIRING AT LEAST SOME LOW             
POPS. THE DRY ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT ANY                   
POTENTIAL PRECIP. THE MOST LIKELY DRY PD WILL BE WED/THU UNDER WK               
RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHO SRN ZONES MAY RECEIVE SOME PRECIP BEING ON THE            
NRN FRINGES OF A SFC SYSTEM MOVG UP THE OH VLY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF              
SHOW THIS SYSTEM...ALTHO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SN/FG/BLSN WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PD             
AS MAJ WINT STORM MOVES FROM NEB TO LK SUP BY MON MRNG. AT THAT TIME            
CONDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY.                  
STRONG NE WINDS WILL SIFT TO THE NW AS THE STORM PASSES...THEN                  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MON.                                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  21 -10  -5 -21 / 100  80  40  10                                           
INL  -1 -11  -6 -28 / 100  80  40  10                                           
BRD  17  -9  -4 -18 / 100  80  20  10                                           
HYR  30  -4   1 -19 / 100  80  30  10                                           
ASX  26  -2   3 -14 / 100  80  50  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR CROW WING-PINE-             
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL ST.                
     LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                   
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN                           
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST.           
     LOUIS.                                                                     
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR BURNETT-SAWYER-             
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-          
     IRON.                                                                      
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR DOUGLAS.                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR PRICE.                   
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     LSZ121-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                               
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-LSZ145-               
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ144-              
     LSZ145.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-              
     LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                             
$$                                                                              
GRANING/EOM                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
930 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF PCPN LIFTING NORTH AND                       
BEGINNING TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. PCPN TYPE GOES FROM RAIN TO SNOW              
AS YOU MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PCPN AREA... WITH               
SOME SLEET IN THE TRANSITION ZONE. THERE IS SOME FZDZ AND FREEZING              
RAIN AROUND... ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY IN THE LIGHTER                  
PCPN SOUTH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN... PRIMARILY FROM NEAR                      
LITCHFIELD SOUTHWEST TO REDWOOD FALLS. THINKING IS THAT THIS AREA               
IS SEEING THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT AS THE PCPN MOVES NORTH...               
AND HAS AN ENTIRE SUB-FREEZING SOUNDING... BUT IS NOT COLD ENOUGH               
TO GET ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM IN THE SATURATED LAYER. THIS COULD                  
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT OF A HEADACHE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH                       
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE                 
COLD AIR SURGES IN... BUT THE MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS LIMITED... SO              
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A NEED TO MENTION SOME FZRA/FZDZ IN THE                   
FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE DOES EVENTUALLY ARRIVE ON THE BACK SIDE               
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVE THROUGH THE METRO NORTHEAST INTO                  
WISCONSIN... WHICH WILL WORK TO TAKE CARE OF THIS ISSUE. THE RUC                
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES... WIND                 
FIELDS... AND LOW POSITION... AND FAVOR ITS DEPICTION OF THINGS                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY... WHICH LINES UP REASONABLY WELL              
WITH THE PREVIOUS NAM FORECASTS. WITH THAT SAID... THE CURRENT                  
HEADLINES LOOK OK FOR THE MOMENT... BUT THERE MAY BE SOME NEED TO               
EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTHEAST IF THERE IS                  
MORE IN THE WAY OF FZDZ/FZRA IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF MID-                 
LEVEL DRYING. THE REMAINS ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS STILL LOOK ON                 
TRACK... WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW/PCPN LIKELY                 
ANCHORING ITSELF VERY SOON BEFORE PIVOTING THEN LIFTING                         
NORTHEAST... KEEPING THE SAME AREAS WITHIN THE ZONE OF FAVORABLE                
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR AN EXTENDED                    
PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS THE                      
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THIS MAIN PCPN BAND WILL ANCHOR FROM NEAR                     
GRANITE FALLS NORTHEAST THROUGH ST CLOUD TO MORA... WITH AREAS                  
NORTH OF THAT SEEING THE GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL... WHICH LINES UP              
WELL WITH CURRENT WARNINGS. STRONGEST WINDS OWING TO THE PRESSURE               
GRADIENT... ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTIONS... AND SURFACE ROUGHNESS                  
ISSUES WILL BE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE              
FORECAST AREA... WITH THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS LOOKING OK                  
WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THOSE STRONG WINDS MESH WITH EXPECTED                     
SNOWFALL. THE METRO AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH SOME FZDZ/FZRA POSSIBLE TOWARD MID                
AFTERNOON AS THE SOUNDING COOLS BELOW FREEZING YET THE MID LEVELS               
REMAIN TOO DRY TO SEED THINGS WITH ICE NUCLEI. ONCE AGAIN... WILL               
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL WITH RESPECT TO EXTENDING                 
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REGARDLESS... THE COLD AIR WILL                    
ARRIVE IN EARNEST ON THE HEELS OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AROUND AND              
AFTER 3PM IN THE METRO... WHICH COULD WORK TO QUICKLY ICE UP THE                
CURRENTLY WET SURFACES EVEN IF FREEZING PCPN DOESN/T MATERIALIZE.               
WILL BE WORKING ON SOME UPDATES... WITH UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE                  
FORECAST COMING... ALTHOUGH CHANGES SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
WRMFNT EXTENDING FM SFC LOW ANCHORED IN NE CO THEN ACRS S MN. -SN               
HAS BEEN SHWG SM EXPANSION ACRS CNTL MN DRNG EVE WITH FAIRLY                    
WDSPRD VSBYS 1-3SM. STG UVV MVS INTO W MN BY 12Z SPRDG RPDLY EWRD               
ACRS CNTRL MN DRNG MRNG AS UPR LOW APRCHS. THIS WL RPDLY DVLP MDT/HVY           
SNW ESP AT AXN BUT ALSO AT STC. INCRSG LOW LVL FLOW/WAA OVERNITE                
MAY DVLP -RA OVER WC WI OVERNITE PERHAPS INTO MSP. SMALL THREAT OF              
-FZRA BUT WITH SFC DWPTS GNRLY AOA 32 DEGREES SHUD BE MAINLY -RA.               
BIG DIFFERENCE IN QPF OUTPUT ACRS N AND CNTL WI BTWN 12Z AND 18Z WITH           
00Z GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE AS 850MB INCRS TO 50 KTS AND SIGNIFICANT                
TIGHTENING OF THERMAL GRADIENT. CONCERN FOR MANY HRS OF BLSN AT                 
AXN DVLPG SUN MRNG AND CONTG INTO SUNDAY EVE WITH NRLY WINDS ON                 
BACKSIDE OF SFC LOW. -RA SHUD RPDLY CHG TO -SN AT RWF SUN MRNG AND              
BY ARND 18Z AT MSP AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
DELAY IN DISCUSSION DUE TO COMPLEX YET EXCITING FORECAST.                       
CHALLENGES CENTER ON BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TODAY IN WEST CTRL                     
MN...WITH BLIZZARD-LIKE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY COMING IN FROM                     
MADISON MN AT 630 AM. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE SHARP DROP IN                     
TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN JUST 24 HOURS /7 AM MONDAY/ TO BE 35 TO                
45 DEGREES COLDER.                                                              
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXHIBITING COLD FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS                 
WRN MN WITH COLD BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERCUTTING FORCING AND                        
INSTABILITY FOR SNOW ALOFT. SATELLITE REVEALS AN AREA OF IDEAL                  
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND SHORT TERM MODEL              
AND SIMPLY RADAR TRENDS ARE PORTRAYING VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR                  
BANDING SNOW IN WEST CTRL MN THROUGH TODAY. COBB TECHNIQUE FROM                 
NAM/GFS MODELS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN WHAT WILL BE A RAPIDLY                    
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WITH THE SNOW THANKS TO THE COLD AIR              
ADVECTION. SO FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COME OUT TO 5 TO 12 INCHES              
ACROSS WRN AND CTRL MN. THE FOCUS FOR BANDING AND JUST THE                      
PROLONGED DURATION OF SNOW WOULD HIGHLIGHT                                      
MORRIS...ALEXANDRIA...AND LONG PRAIRIE TO SEE 9 TO 12 INCH AMOUNTS              
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GIVEN BANDING. THESE                      
FORECAST GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FALL OUT WELL WITH EMPIRICAL                  
TECHNIQUES AS WELL. GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MASS FIELD               
PLACEMENT...AND THIS HEAVY SNOW AXIS LIES BETWEEN THE H8 AND H7                 
LOWS AND HELPS LEND EVEN MORE CONFIDENCE. TO THE EAST...MIXED                   
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT IN THE AFTN...MAY STAY MIXED UNTIL VERY LATE              
IN THE DAY. SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIGHT                 
H9-H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE /U.S. HIGHWAY 8 CORRIDOR OF WRN WI/ WHERE                 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP ENOUGH NEAR-SURFACE COLD LAYER TO                
PROMOTE FREEZING RAIN. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO HIGHLIGHT THAT                   
AREA.                                                                           
WINDS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALREADY SETTING IN. WHILE NOT THE                 
GREATEST SETUP FOR WESTERN MINNESOTA...THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL PRESSURE           
GRADIENT FORCE IS SO STRONG THAT WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH                
THROUGHOUT TODAY. SIMILAR PRESSURE GRADIENT SPACING LED TO SUCH                 
WINDS IN THE DAKOTAS AND THE SIMILARITIES IN TOPOGRAPHY OF WEST                 
CTRL MN TO THE DAKOTAS WILL HELP. ALREADY GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH HAVE               
BEEN OBSERVED IN LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY. BEST ISALLOBARIC                         
COUPLET/COLD AIR ADVECTION/1000-850MB DIVERGENCE MOVES FROM WEST                
TO EAST ACROSS SRN MN THIS AFTN. THIS AREA WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH               
FRESH SNOW...BUT THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME                 
BLOWING SNOW OF WHAT REMAINS. GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE VERY                    
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.                                                     
WIND CHILLS PLUMMET THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS                    
CONTINUING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WELL. TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL                 
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE CLIMBING ONLY SLIGHTLY                   
DURING THE AFTN. FORECAST WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -35 ACROSS THE MN               
CWA...THE NATURE IN WHICH IT ARRIVES...AND BEING THE FIRST DOSE OF              
SUCH AIR THIS WINTER...IT ALL WARRANTED WIND CHILL ADVISORY                     
ISSUANCE BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT. MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH                 
MON AFTN.                                                                       
MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT LOOK TO BE -20F OR BELOW IN THE AREA THAT SEES              
THE MOST FRESH SNOW. WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH...THE MSLP AND H8 TEMPS               
WITH FRESH SNOW...IT ALL DOES FAVOR MIN TEMPS OF THAT MAGNITUDE LOOKING         
AT SOME LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY.                                                      
BEYOND...TUES SYSTEM LOOKING MORE INTERESTING WITH SHARP H7 TROUGH              
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE                   
FAVORED WITH THIS SETUP ON TUES AFTN AND NIGHT. WILL NEED TO FOCUS              
ON MORE AS WE GET INTO THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST MONDAY              
     FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-                  
     DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC                  
     QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MORRISON-NICOLLET-                 
     POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-                  
     STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-                       
     WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                                           
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-          
     LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                          
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BENTON-                
     KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-STEARNS-TODD.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CHISAGO-            
     ISANTI-MEEKER-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT.                           
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-             
     POLK-RUSK.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/RAH/MTF                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
522 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
...MAJOR STORM AIMING FOR NORTHLAND...                                          
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...                                   
....DRAMATIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND TODAY...                          
.....WINTER STORM WARNING NOW INCLUDES MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...           
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION.                 
DOME OF COLD AIR IN SFC/85H LAYER HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF ACROSS NW               
WIS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATION OF RUC13 THERMAL/WIND FIELDS IN               
BDRY LAYER INDICATE THAT COLDER AIR IS UNDERCUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. 925H WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTH TO EAST ALONG A RZN TO                
HYR TO PBH LINE. THIS HAS PUSHED MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LOW                   
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH TO ERN PART OF MPX CWA. BAYFIELD PENINSULA                 
APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING ENHANCED PRECIP FROM LONG TRAJECTORY                 
DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST MSAS SHOWS WELL DEFINED SFC INVERTED                 
TROUGH FROM LOW OVER ERN NEB TO EAX TO HOUGHTON IN UP OF MI. 3HR                
PRESSRR OVER SERN PART OF CWA CURRENTLY. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS               
LARGE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF              
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF. STRONG UPPER JETS POISED                 
OVER ONTARIO... WITH NRN BRANCH... AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF SRN                  
PLAINS JET TRANSLATING NE INTO SRN MN/WI.                                       
TODAY/TONIGHT...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO EXISTING FCST WAS TO UPGRADE         
BURNETT/WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES TO WSW. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE              
EXISTING THERMAL BDRY IN LOW LAYERS AND UNDERCUTTING OF COLD AIR                
SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM. FSCT                   
SNDGS ALSO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
STILL EXPECTED TODAY ALONG HEAD OF LAKE AS FUNNELING OF HIGHER                  
SPEED AIR OCCURS. DYT ALREADY GUSTING TO ABOUT 40MPH. MAJOR                     
FORCING FACTORS STILL IN PLAY. A LARGE AREA OF MDT/STRONG                       
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPPER TROF ADVECTS EAST TODAY.                
COUPLED JETS WILL ADD TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. SOME MIX OF                     
SN/IP/FZRA ACROSS EXTREME ERN CWA AS SFC LOW GETS CLOSER THIS                   
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND SATURATION OCCURING               
IN DEEP LAYER SUSPECT THAT POPTYP MAY BE MORE A WET SNOW OR SLEET               
VS COLD RAIN IN THIS AREA. WINDCHILL VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED                     
ADVISORY CATEGORY TONIGHT BUT DID NOT WANT TO ADD ANOTHER ADVISORY              
TO BUSY SLATE. WILL VERBALIZE THE THREAT IN THE WSW AND HWO                     
PRODUCTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE                    
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW ZERO PERHAPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED AS GUSTY WINDS PUSH                  
FLUFFY LOW DENSITY FLAKES ALL OVER THE PLACE.                                   
MONDAY...STORM LOOSENS ITS GRIP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER CWA.                   
SN/BS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING MOST AREAS. WITH 85/70H RH                 
STILL ABOVE 60 PERCENT MOST OF DAY...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW                 
FOR SNOWBELT WITH VERY HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND              
WARNING IN THAT AREA.                                                           
EXTENDED....TUE THRU SAT...                                                     
SEVERAL S/WVS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION...REQUIRING AT LEAST SOME LOW             
POPS. THE DRY ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT ANY                   
POTENTIAL PRECIP. THE MOST LIKELY DRY PD WILL BE WED/THU UNDER WK               
RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHO SRN ZONES MAY RECEIVE SOME PRECIP BEING ON THE            
NRN FRINGES OF A SFC SYSTEM MOVG UP THE OH VLY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF              
SHOW THIS SYSTEM...ALTHO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SN/FG/BLSN WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PD             
AS MAJ WINT STORM MOVES FROM NEB TO LK SUP BY MON MRNG. AT THAT TIME            
CONDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY.                  
STRONG NE WINDS WILL SIFT TO THE NW AS THE STORM PASSES...THEN                  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MON.                                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  21 -10  -5 -21 / 100  80  40  10                                           
INL  -1 -11  -6 -28 / 100  80  40  10                                           
BRD  17  -9  -4 -18 / 100  80  20  10                                           
HYR  30  -4   1 -19 / 100  80  30  10                                           
ASX  26  -2   3 -14 / 100  80  50  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR CROW WING-PINE-             
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL ST.                
     LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                   
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN                           
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST.           
     LOUIS.                                                                     
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-          
     IRON.                                                                      
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR DOUGLAS.                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR BURNETT-SAWYER-             
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4AM CST MONDAY FOR PRICE.                    
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     LSZ121-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                               
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-LSZ145-               
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ144-              
     LSZ145.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-              
     LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                             
$$                                                                              
CANNON/04                                                                       
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
356 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...OUR STRING OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL BE COMING            
TO AN END THIS WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN                
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH              
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOMING CENTERED              
OVER NJ/DE/MD. AS THIS MOVES OFF...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND            
SFC LOW OVER COLORADO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST. THIS IS CREATING A            
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY GUSTY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS               
INTO TEXAS. DENSE CIRRUS HAS COVERED MOST OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS               
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ONLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AREAS              
THAT HAVE SEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 50S.                  
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OUT WEST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK                 
EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS AHEAD OF THE               
ASSOCIATED FRONT AND CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OVER MAINLY THE NW PORTIONS              
OF THE CWA. WITH THIS SAID...HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE LAKE WIND               
ADVISORY TO COVER GENERALLY THE AREAS BOUNDED BY INTERSTATE 55 AND              
INTERSTATE 20. THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE THE GREATEST WINDS                    
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SOME WARM                
ADVECTION RAIN TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF THE MS               
RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                           
SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERN STREAM 120KT 200MB JET MOVES OVER THE CWA...AND            
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.            
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MS DELTA AND AR COUNTIES.               
WITH THIS SAID HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY AT             
LEAST BRIEFLY REACH CRITERIA. THE REST OF THE CWA...WITH EXCEPTION              
OF GENERALLY THE I-59 CORRIDOR...HAVE GONE WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY.             
WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE               
NORTHEAST AS RETURN FLOW STEADILY BRINGS PWATS INTO THE 1-1.15                  
RANGE.                                                                          
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME. WARM ADVECTION            
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS MOISTURE STREAMS                
INTO REGION AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE REGION.              
ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT               
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THERE IS               
LIMITED INSTABILITY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER. LOOKS LIKE THE            
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY                           
MIDNIGHT...LEAVING LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF             
MS AND LA.                                                                      
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WARM                    
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S              
DURING THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RANGE OF            
TEMPS AND BRING WARMER LOWS FOR THE CWA THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN                  
SEEING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.                                           
AS FOR POPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH GUI POPS. DID RAISE POPS ON MON               
NIGHT/TUES MORNING AS GUI CAME IN MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT WAS                      
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BUMPED UP VALUES TO BLEND A LITTLE MORE WITH               
PREVIOUS IN THE THINKING THERE MIGHT BE SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN.                 
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL STANDS FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.              
/28/                                                                            
THE GFS/GFES/ECMWF AND UKMET ALL INDICATE THE CP BOUNDARY WILL AT               
LEAST REACH THE ARKLAMISS AND STALL IN THE VICINITY TUESDAY. THE                
ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL PERTURBATIONS WILL                
BUCKLE THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE              
RAINFALL AND WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGES. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS             
TO AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. DO NOT SEE ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS            
FAR AS SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE CONCERNED.                           
OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MILDER THAN EXPECTED THIS             
TIME OF THE YEAR. /EC/17/                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW              
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15               
KTS TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25KTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE               
STRONGEST AND GUSTIEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DELTA REGION.                
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE WEST TODAY BUT VFR CONDITIONS               
PREVAILED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR              
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A LAYER OF STRATUS              
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED              
TO DEVELOP FROM WEST LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A              
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       47  67  58  68 /  12  15  37  40                                  
MERIDIAN      41  63  56  69 /   5  10  53  43                                  
VICKSBURG     50  70  58  65 /  24  22  26  42                                  
HATTIESBURG   44  67  58  73 /   9  15  38  25                                  
NATCHEZ       53  69  60  70 /  22  21  17  31                                  
GREENVILLE    48  67  55  55 /  23  26  45  53                                  
GREENWOOD     48  65  56  60 /   9  19  51  54                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ029>033-            
     037>039-043>045-047>051-053>056-059>063.                                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ040>042.                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ025>028-035-036.           
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-                 
     025>028-034>036.                                                           
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-034.               
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ015-016-            
     023>026.                                                                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009.                   
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.                 
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
28/22/17/EC                                                                     
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
334 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.                                          
WE HAVE A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS TO CONSIDER IN THE SHORT TERM.                
HEADLINES...MIXED PRECIP...SNOW AMTS...AND WIND WILL ALL BE OF                  
CONCERN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LOW WIND CHILLS              
MONDAY MORNING.                                                                 
THE UA CHARTS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A 160KT JET DIVING SOUTHWARD                
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A TROF OVR THE PACIFIC OCEAN TOWARD CA. 220M HT              
FALLS WERE NOTED OVR OREGON AND SRN ID WITH COLD -35 DEG TEMPS AT               
H5. AT H7 STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NOTED AHEAD OF THE MID               
LEVEL TROF. AT H85 A 70 KT JET WAS REPORTED AT TOPEKA. BY                       
20Z...THE RUC WAS SHOWING A 120-140KT JET OVR CO AND THIS WAS                   
AIDING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ACRS THE PLAINS. THE GFS DID A BETTER                
JOB WITH THE PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED OVR MO WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN              
AND STRONG WAA.                                                                 
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE TIGHTEST SFC PRES GRADIENT OVR MO               
AND VERY WARM TEMPS IN OUR CWA IN THE 40S AND 50S. SFC LOW PRES                 
WAS ORGANIZING OVR WY/CO. THE CDFNT WAS SOUTH OF PIR SD AND                     
STRETCHED EASTWARD TO AROUND ST. CLOUD MN. IN OUR AREA...WE HAVE A              
PSEUDO WRMFNT NORTH OF TQE AND NR DENISON...SOUTH OF THIS                       
BOUNDARY...THERE IS GOOD MIXING WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND NORTH OF              
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS.                     
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT MIDNIGHT               
FOR THE FOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY                
START OUT AS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE                     
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. THE TIMING OF THE START OF THE                          
PRECIPITATION IS STILL BTWN 06-09Z WITH THE CD AIR BARRELING IN TO              
THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 09-12Z THEN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FOR THE                
REST OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...THE LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW                  
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. THE SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE LIGHT AND                
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES AND WILL MENTION 1 TO AS HIGH AS 2 OR              
3 NEAR THE SD BORDER. THERE IS A GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IN               
THE NORTH ALONG WITH UVV AND FRONTOGENSIS. Q-VECTO FORCING IS                   
BETTER NORTH AND THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO REMAIN IN               
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...THEN TRIES TO DEVELOP OVR SE NEB                    
DURING THE EVENING...BUT IS BETTER ORGANIZED OVR KS AND MO. WITH                
THE 20-30KT WINDS AND GUSTS 35 TO 40KT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR               
SUNDAY ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA. THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG INTO THE               
EVENING. LEFT SNOWSHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN DURING THE EVENING. THE               
SOUTHERN SNOWBAND THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH                
OF THE CWA. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURE AND STRONG WINDS MONDAY                   
MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET.                           
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS              
POTENT AND A BETTER SNOW PRODUCER. STRONG H85 WAA SETS UP AND WITH              
CD AIR IN PLACE AND STRONG LIFT AND BETTER PV SIGNALS...INCREASED               
POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND ADDED QPF/SNOWAMTS OF 1-4 INCHES.               
TEMPS STILL 10 TO 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL BOTH MON AND TUESDAY.                     
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                    
12Z GFS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH BOTH 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF                  
CONSIDERING THE RATHER LARGE UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT IN A PATTERN OF             
SW FLOW ALOFT.  THESE ARISE FROM SHORT WAVES IN BOTH BRANCHES OF                
PARTIALLY SPLIT FLOW.  SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES TAP INTO GOOD MOISTURE             
SOURCE TO THE SOUTH...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM PRODUCES NEW SURGES OF              
ARCTIC AIR.  THUS...THE DETAILS OF TIMING THESE WAVES CAN BE                    
EXPECTED TO GO WRONG DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THERE              
IS BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW COVER WILL EXIST OVER MOST OR ALL OF             
THE AREA...HELPING TO KEEP NEAR SURFACE AIR WELL REFRIGERATED                   
DESPITE OCCASIONAL WARMING ALOFT.                                               
EXPECT SEVERAL PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR...LIKELY ONGOING EARLY                      
WED...THEN AGAIN NEXT FRI OR SAT.  IN BETWEEN...WARM ADVECTION WILL             
SET UP A CHC OF PRECIP MOSTLY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  BOTH GFS             
AND ECMWF WARM UP THICKNESSES AND TEMPS ALOFT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THAT            
THERE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF                
NEBRASKA AND SW IA DURING THE DAY THU...AS SFC AIR TEMPS ARE NOT                
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  FLURRIES ARE ALSO LIKELY EARLY WED            
NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES...AND WITH ANY OTHER LATER SURGE.                
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND               
32...BUT COULD EASILY GO COLDER IF TIMING ALLOWS GOOD RADIATION SOME            
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK THROUGH 14/18Z.                                    
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SWD INTO CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE PD. AT             
THIS POINT...STRONG WIND THREAT AND CROSS WIND ACTIVITY IS THE MAIN             
CONCERN ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL                     
FROPA...AROUND 08Z AT KOFK/13Z KLNK/14Z KOMA. CROSS WIND ACTIVITY               
WITH GUSTS 30KT OR GREATER WILL BE DEFINITE FACTOR ALL SITES                    
GENERALLY 2 HOURS LEADING UP TO FROPA. OTHERWISE...CHANCE FOR -SN               
MAINLY AT KOFK BTW 14/12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. WILL OPT TO NOT INCLUDE               
-FZRASN MIX FOR KOFK AT THIS TIME...AND WILL REEVALUATE AT NEXT TAF             
ISSUANCE 14/00Z.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-             
     067-068-089>093.                                                           
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ015-018-                 
     030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088.                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY           
     FOR NEZ011-012-016-017.                                                    
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-             
     069-079-080-090-091.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY/POLLACK/DEE                                                           
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
1018 PM PST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE DESERT                    
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH COLDER            
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. THE SNOW LEVEL              
WILL BE UNUSUALLY LOW AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW POTENTIALLY                
DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOORS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.                          
.905 PM PST UPDATE...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN                
HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AS OF 9 PM PST. ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMED                
EARLIER ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT HAS ENDED. SECONDARY                   
MOISTURE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST INYO COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN                 
NEVADA WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED                
SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF LAS VEGAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.            
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE WIND. CURRENT WIND                 
ADVISORIES EXPIRE AS OF 10 PM PST AND ATTM THAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD              
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL BE                  
UPDATING ZONES LATER TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORIES AND TO REMOVE EVENING            
WORDING...BUT OVERALL CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO               
FURTHER UPDATES PLANNED FOR TONIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND                  
SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE AFT 08Z. CIGS                
AROUND 8K FEET UNTIL 08Z THEN BCMG SCT CLOUD DECKS THROUGH SUNDAY.              
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AND             
SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE...              
LOWERING VSBY BLO 3SM THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT             
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS AND ANOTHER                 
CHANCE FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW.                                                     
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST             
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA                    
OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 15KT AFT 08Z SUNDAY.             
CIGS NEAR 8K FEET WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY MORMON MESA TO                 
KLAS TO BAKER LINE SOUTH...THROUGH 08Z SUNDAY THEN BECOMING SCT                 
CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOMING                
SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE                
AREA WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AND                  
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN             
OBSCURATIONS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR THE DESERT                 
FLOORS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER                  
CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.                
&&                                                                              
.608 PM PST UPDATE...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS              
LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT NO ADDITIONAL              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED...THUS HAVE ALLOWED THE SNOW ADVISORY            
TO EXPIRE. COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH SLIGHT FASTER THAN EARLIER                 
THOUGHT WITH FRONT CROSSING OVER THE KLAS VALLEY AS OF 02Z. WINDS               
REMAIN A PROBLEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THE                
ADVISORIES STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. &&                             
.420 PM PST DISCUSSION...PREFRONTAL WINDS WERE STRONG ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS            
WERE INDICATING A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND. HIGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON              
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS DECREASED AFTER 21Z AND WILL            
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY                
WILL REPLACE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS...WESTERN              
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE SURFACE                
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS STILL 14-15 MB BETWEEN LAX AND LAS BUT THE                
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CLARK COUNTY BY 03Z AND WINDS WILL                 
DIMINISH BEHIND IT. THE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC INDICATE THE FRONT               
WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH NO STRONG PUSH OF NORTH WINDS            
MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA. SNOW SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY            
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. THE BROAD UPPER               
LOW SETTLES IN AND ZONAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY AND               
COLD SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS                 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA MONDAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE               
PLUME WILL BE PULLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE LATEST GFS AND              
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND                 
MOISTURE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT BUT                
SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE 2500-3000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA MONDAY            
MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE SHOT WILL BE RATHER               
QUICK...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FOR THE VALLEYS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE             
MORE PROLONGED OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIP. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS               
WHICH WOULD WARRANT A WATCH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO TERRAIN ABOVE 4000            
FEET. HOWEVER...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON               
GRASSY SURFACES...ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY               
STILL LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET. THE GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A            
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN THE NAM                         
BUFR...INDICATING HIGHER WET BULB ZEROS AND SNOW LEVELS CLOSER TO               
3000 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING            
AS THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ENTIRELY INTO ARIZONA.                              
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORCAL BY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE             
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE RIGHT ACROSS SOCAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA            
AND NORTHERN AZ. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LEFT REAR QUAD A 130 KT+              
JETSTREAK WILL BE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF            
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD PUT THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE REGION TO             
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE                
UPPER LOW SINKS FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY WEDNESDAY             
AFTERNOON THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS A PLUME OF                  
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE            
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR...AND POSSIBLY MORE A STEADIER                     
STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MOJAVE DESERT. WITH                  
PLENTY OF CHILL AIR ACROSS THE REGION SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE             
LOW ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO FALL IN AREAS THAT DO NOT OFTEN SEE IT. ONE            
ISSUE REMAINS JUST HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME GETS AS            
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWFA MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP. IN LAS              
VEGAS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR SNOW OR A                   
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDNESDAY AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST                  
P-TYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE. AGAIN THE ISSUE OF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING              
COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL ENHANCING THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW OR A              
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF               
THE AREA AS THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT                       
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN AT LEAST THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE                 
DESERT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND             
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR THURSDAY. THE GENERAL                     
CONSENSUS FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES WERE IN                 
DECENT AGREEMENT TO SUPPORT LOWERING POPS SHARPLY AND BRIGHTENING               
SKIES SOME BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH A SUBTLE                
RISE IN TEMPS. NEVERTHELESS WE SHOULD CATCH A BREAK FROM THE CLOUDS             
AND SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DROP DOWN FROM THE            
NORTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH JUST               
HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS OR WHEN IT MAY EVEN SHOW UP.                              
&&                                                                              
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE                     
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR NVZ018-019.                                               
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JENSEN/ADAIR/STACHELSKI                                                         
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS                                                     
</pre> nv                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
608 PM PST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE DESERT                    
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL                 
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY                  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW. THE              
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE UNUSUALLY LOW AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SNOW MAY              
FALL DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOORS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS LINCOLN                 
COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT NO ADDITIONAL SNOW                 
ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED...THUS HAVE ALLOWED THE SNOW ADVISORY TO              
EXPIRE. COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH SLIGHT FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT            
WITH FRONT CROSSING OVER THE KLAS VALLEY AS OF 02Z. WINDS REMAIN A              
PROBLEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THE ADVISORIES              
STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE KLAS VALLEY             
AT 02Z WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR WESTERLY            
FLOW ACROSS KLAS THROUGH 03Z...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST THROUGH             
05Z...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND THEN BECOMING                  
VARIABLE AFT 08Z. CIGS TO LOWER TO NEAR 80KT FT THROUGH 08Z THEN                
BECOMING SCT CLOUD DECKS THROUGH SUNDAY. DUST WILL SLOWLY SETTLE                
WITHIN THE AREA...BUT VSBY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6SM THROUGH THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR            
CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY WITH A MIX             
RAIN/SNOW PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...LOWERING VSBY BLO 3SM.                       
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER                  
CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS...WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW              
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...420 PM PST SHORT TERM...PREFRONTAL WINDS WERE                
STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THE              
LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND. HIGH             
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS DECREASED            
AFTER 21Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.             
A WIND ADVISORY WILL REPLACE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE SPRING                  
MOUNTAINS...WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA                
SLOPES. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS STILL 14-15 MB BETWEEN LAX            
AND LAS BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CLARK COUNTY BY 03Z AND            
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND IT. THE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC INDICATE              
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH NO STRONG PUSH OF              
NORTH WINDS MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA. SNOW SHOWERS OVER               
LINCOLN COUNTY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY              
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. THE                 
BROAD UPPER LOW SETTLES IN AND ZONAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE AREA                  
MAINLY DRY AND COLD SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE               
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA MONDAY. THE NORTHERN              
EDGE OF THE PLUME WILL BE PULLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE                 
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE                
UPPER LOW AND MOISTURE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING            
ALOFT BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE 2500-3000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN                
NEVADA MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE SHOT                
WILL BE RATHER QUICK...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FOR THE VALLEYS. THE                 
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MORE PROLONGED OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIP.               
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WHICH WOULD WARRANT A WATCH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO            
TERRAIN ABOVE 4000 FEET. HOWEVER...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW                         
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...ALONG THE FOOTHILLS              
AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY STILL LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET. THE GFS               
BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOUTHERLY             
WINDS THAN THE NAM BUFR...INDICATING HIGHER WET BULB ZEROS AND SNOW             
LEVELS CLOSER TO 3000 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ENTIRELY INTO                 
ARIZONA.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORCAL BY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE             
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE RIGHT ACROSS SOCAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA            
AND NORTHERN AZ. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LEFT REAR QUAD A 130 KT+              
JETSTREAK WILL BE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF            
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD PUT THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE REGION TO             
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE                
UPPER LOW SINKS FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY WEDNESDAY             
AFTERNOON THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS A PLUME OF                  
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE            
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR...AND POSSIBLY MORE A STEADIER                     
STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MOJAVE DESERT. WITH                  
PLENTY OF CHILL AIR ACROSS THE REGION SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE             
LOW ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO FALL IN AREAS THAT DO NOT OFTEN SEE IT. ONE            
ISSUE REMAINS JUST HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME GETS AS            
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWFA MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP. IN LAS              
VEGAS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR SNOW OR A                   
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDNESDAY AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST                  
P-TYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE. AGAIN THE ISSUE OF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING              
COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL ENHANCING THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW OR A              
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF               
THE AREA AS THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT                       
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN AT LEAST THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE                 
DESERT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND             
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR THURSDAY. THE GENERAL                     
CONSENSUS FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES WERE IN                 
DECENT AGREEMENT TO SUPPORT LOWERING POPS SHARPLY AND BRIGHTENING               
SKIES SOME BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH A SUBTLE                
RISE IN TEMPS. NEVERTHELESS WE SHOULD CATCH A BREAK FROM THE CLOUDS             
AND SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DROP DOWN FROM THE            
NORTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH JUST               
HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS OR WHEN IT MAY EVEN SHOW UP.                              
&&                                                                              
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST             
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WITH MECHANICAL                
TURBULENCE DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL            
WILL EXIST TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS. IN THE OWENS VALLEY...GUSTY                 
NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING OF 30-40 KTS WILL LESSEN BY AROUND 6Z SUN.             
IN THE MOJAVE DESERT...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35            
KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KTS. BLOWING               
DUST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND REDUCE VSBY.                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN AREAWIDE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST            
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SHSN                   
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LINCOLN AND                
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL                
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM               
WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AND SHOWERS TO            
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN                        
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE LOW ALLOWING            
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO                
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS WITH             
YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MANY LOW ELEVATIONS TO SEE SNOW. &&                      
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE                     
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR NVZ018-019.                                               
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR NVZ016-017-020>022.           
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ001>003-036.                    
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CAZ524>527.                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ520. &&                   
$$                                                                              
JENSEN/ADAIR/STACHELSKI                                                         
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS                                                     
</pre> nv                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
733 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING HEADLINES. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE                 
DETAILS FOR WINTER STORM TONIGHT AND WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO                 
USED OPPORTUNITY TO TWEAK MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
WEDNESDAY BY RAISING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THE LATEST                 
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING                
THE NW PLATEAU WITH THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS FOLLOWING SUIT.                
THE NEWEST 00Z NAM/RUC SHOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AFTER 1 AM                
ACROSS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CHUSKAS...SAN JUANS...JEMEZ...AND                 
SANGRES THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING               
TO SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES                 
LOOK ON TARGET OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ADVISORY LEVELS               
OVER NMZ001-003-008-010-014. WINDS WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC OVER                
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION              
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SUNDAY. UTILIZED THE METMOS               
TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE               
DAY ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 BEFORE TEMPS TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.                
THIS FIRST SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST AN APPETIZER BEFORE A                
POSSIBLE MAJOR SNOW EVENT DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.                                                      
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...304 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008...                                
A 150 KT JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO THE                    
WESTERN COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE                         
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. SPEEDS AROUND THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE ARE                 
UPWARDS OF 125 KT INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE WHITE SANDS                
AND TUCUMCARI WIND PROFILERS REVEAL SPEEDS AOA 50 KT AT H7 AND                  
ABOVE. SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING THAT WINDS ARE JUST A FEW KNOTS               
SHY OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA ACROSS SOME CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN                    
LOCALES...BUT IT IS QUITE WINDY NONETHELESS. ONLY A FEW RADAR                   
ECHOES ARE EVIDENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...BUT               
THIS WILL CHANGE AND INCREASE AS APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS FORCES                 
ENERGY INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.               
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSENSUS FOR THE MOST                
PART...THUS FOCUS HAS BEEN ON HIGHLIGHTS/HAZARDS AND GENERAL                    
IMPACTS OF THIS FIRST STORM THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUBSEQUENT                       
AFTERSHOCK STORMS TRAILING INTO THE FIRST AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE               
WORK WEEK. BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET ACROSS              
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE                
WIDESPREAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM ROUGHLY 7500 FEET DOWN TO               
VALLEY FLOORS BY EARLY MORNING...THEREFORE ZONES 001 AND 003 WILL KEEP          
ADVISORIES POSTED FOR GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY                
LATE SUNDAY. OTHER WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY SEGMENTS WILL              
ALSO REMAIN IN TACT AS IS. OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED DYNAMICS STILL               
LOOK TO FAVOR WESTERN SLOPES OF NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH               
SANGRES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS FOR WARNING.                 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN H7 WIND FLOW...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP                
THINGS INTERESTING WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL BE                    
STRONGEST MOSTLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN AREAS OF                
THE STATE...HOWEVER LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER MIXING WILL KEEP                
THINGS WINDY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE                
RECONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLY TOMORROW DUE TO CLOUD                 
COVER AND LESS MIXING...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD QUICKLY               
TRANSFER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL LET NEXT                      
SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL.                                                      
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS TURNS MORE OROGRAPHIC AS INITIAL PULSE                
EXITS THE AREA. THINGS QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP BY MID DAY MONDAY AS                
NEXT TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE BROADER FEATURE. THIS POSES                
AN INTERESTING DILEMMA REGARDING THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WINTER              
STORM ADVISORY/WARNING. GUT FEELING IS THAT THE BEST AND LEAST                  
CONFUSING METHOD WILL BE TO ALLOW THE CURRENT WSW PRODUCT TO                    
EXPIRE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT                    
ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT IN HIGHEST TERRAIN...A NEW               
AND SEPARATE HAZARD PRODUCT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR                 
SECOND UPCOMING STORM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.                                  
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MOSTLY IN                
THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOME. UNSETTLED                   
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A QUICK LIVED DRIER              
SLUG OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP. BY NEXT SUNDAY ADDITIONAL              
ENERGY MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES RETURNING.                                                              
52                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...MORE OFTEN THAN                
NOT...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT             
CHAIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER BUT STILL BRISK WINDS WEST OF THE                   
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SOME MT WAVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE HIGHER RANGES OF THE              
STATE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE MOST PRONOUNCED TO THE EAST OF THE                   
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO NEARLY 40 KTS            
WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 KTS...EVEN STRONGER ALOFT...SHOULD            
BE JUST TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO MID EVE OR SO...THEN            
IT MAY SUBSIDE A LITTLE ONLY TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A MORE               
SPOTTY AND ERRATIC FASHION COMPARED WITH THIS AFTN. DURING THE LATE             
MORN AND AFTN SUNDAY...THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE                    
WIDESPREAD AGAIN. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE W AND             
NW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE                
REST OF N AND W WITH SOME OF IT MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST            
NM. CIGS WILL FREQUENTLY BE IN THE IFR AND MVFR RANGE VERY LATE                 
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN SUNDAY W OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY             
KRTN TO SOCORRO...WHILE ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE                
THOUGH SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY TO THE E OF THE CENTRAL MT            
CHAIN.                                                                          
43                                                                              
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 43                                  
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...THOUGH             
A 2 OR 3 DAY BREAK IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRI AND SUN OF NEXT WEEK.                
MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER                     
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY W AND N NM...WHERE 1 1/2 TO POSSIBLY 3 OR 4 FT             
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO                
HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE CO AND AZ STATE LINE. WIND WILL BE THE OTHER              
STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM               
THIS LATE AFTN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTN                 
CHAIN AND POINTS JUST TO THE EAST. GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 MPH WILL             
BE POSSIBLE THERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL TREND HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND              
MONDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.                           
43                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...                                         
FARMINGTON......................  31  32  20  35 /  60  60  10  40              
GALLUP..........................  29  31  18  35 /  60  70  20  50              
GRANTS..........................  30  34  17  37 /  50  60  10  30              
GLENWOOD........................  35  46  27  48 /  20  60  20  20              
CHAMA...........................  24  26   1  27 /  90  80  20  50              
LOS ALAMOS......................  27  33  17  35 /  30  50  20  50              
RED RIVER.......................  23  24   3  23 /  70  90  20  30              
TAOS............................  27  30  13  31 /  50  60  10  30              
SANTA FE........................  31  35  18  38 /  20  40  10  50              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  30  37  20  37 /  20  40  10  50              
ESPANOLA........................  24  41  19  41 /  30  40  10  30              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  36  43  29  43 /  10  20  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  32  44  24  46 /  10  20  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  33  42  24  42 /  10  20  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  33  44  25  47 /  10  20  10  40              
SOCORRO.........................  31  56  27  49 /   5  20   5  10              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  27  36  17  38 /  10  30  10  50              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  26  42  21  40 /  10  30  10  40              
CARRIZOZO.......................  40  55  30  44 /   5  20   5  10              
RUIDOSO.........................  35  48  28  42 /   5  20   5  20              
RATON...........................  31  42  11  30 /  10  20  10  20              
LAS VEGAS.......................  34  39  14  32 /  10  20  10  30              
ROY.............................  34  43  18  31 /  10  20   5  20              
CLAYTON.........................  35  42  13  28 /   5  10   5  10              
SANTA ROSA......................  39  54  23  43 /   5  20   5  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  43  53  20  36 /   0  10   5  10              
FORT SUMNER.....................  37  59  23  41 /   5  10   5   5              
CLOVIS..........................  42  60  20  37 /   0   5   5   5              
PORTALES........................  40  61  19  40 /   0   5   5   5              
ROSWELL.........................  43  67  34  46 /   0   0   5   5              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY              
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-003.                                           
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                    
ZONES...NMZ002-004.                                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...                  
NMZ006-007-009-013-015-018>021.                                                 
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...              
NMZ005-010>012-016-017-026.                                                     
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
ZONES...NMZ008-014.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1255 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RECENTLY DEPARTED SURFACE HIGH              
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA                  
THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND A               
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...                                                         
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING             
TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE                        
MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MOISTURE AT 850MB GRADUALLY             
MOVING NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH KGSO AT 12Z               
WAS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR AT THAT LEVEL.              
THE AIR MASS WAS DRY ABOVE 850MB OVERALL...WITH HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE             
MOVING OVER THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE. AMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM KRDU            
SHOWED GRADUAL WARM-AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE FROM 850MB THROUGH               
700MB.                                                                          
ISENTROPIC DESCENT ON THE 295K SURFACE THIS MORNING WILL                        
TRANSITION TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST BY                
THE LATEST NAM...WITH GOOD 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION TODAY                        
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A                  
300MB 85-100KT JET THAT MOVES NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE IN               
THE DAY. MID-LEVELS STAY DRY...AND THOUGH LOW-LEVEL DIVERGENCE                  
REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDES               
FOR MODEST LIFT MAINLY IN WESTERN ZONES AS FORECAST BY BOTH THE                 
NAM AND THE RUC LATE TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE APPEARS LIMITED               
BASED ON THE LACK OF APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BUT WILL                    
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IT LATE IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES                
BASED ON THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.                       
ELSEWHERE...WHILE SKIES SHOULD BECOME RATHER CLOUDY IN THE WEST                 
DURING THE DAY AND BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHES OF SUN CENTRAL...              
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH A MIX OF                      
STRATOCU AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY               
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAKE HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY EVEN WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...           
BUT WITH THE SLOW MORNING RISE AND AVAILABLE CLOUD COVER PRESENT                
OPTED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                     
TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE                
AREA AS SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW STRATUS ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION                
PERSISTS...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMS INTO THE AREA                
VIA WSW/SW FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN...THE OVERCAST LOW STRATUS SHOULD                  
REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH                    
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW STRATUS ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY              
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE               
OF DRIZZLE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD THE TRIANGLE/FAY AREA THROUGH                  
SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED...A HUNDREDTH                
OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE TRIAD. WITH EXTENSIVE              
CLOUD COVER...IN ADDITION TO ONGOING WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT                    
RELATIVELY MILD LOWS TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S IN                
THE TRIAD...NOT MUCH OF A DEPARTURE FROM EXPECTED TEMPERATURES                  
LATE IN THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE EAST/SE                  
COASTAL PLAIN.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                 
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...                                                          
UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD IS A GENERAL W TO SW FLOW AT MID AND              
UPPER LEVELS WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINE NORTH OF THE AREA AND                   
CENTRAL NC ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. MAIN               
WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE            
APPALACHIANS ON MON NIGHT. LATEST NAM/GFS/SREF GUIDANCE IS                      
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC AROUND DAYBREAK              
ON TUESDAY AND THEN STALLING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NC ON TUESDAY AFTN              
AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING IT RAPIDLY NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.                 
MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW              
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. CHANCES OF                
RAIN INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY AS BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE            
RIDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD SUNSET.              
WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE W MON AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE                 
EAST. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE             
WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WILL RANGE IN THE                 
LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL                 
PLAIN. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY            
SKIES AND A LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. THE COLD FRONT MOVES               
INTO THE TRIAD AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT RECENT STUDIES INDICATE THAT             
LOW TEMPS ARE USUALLY WARMER THEN EXPECTED WITH NOCTURNAL COLD                  
FRONTAL PASSAGES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE                  
TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE COLD FRONT                
WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT.             
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE              
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKER.                           
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS RATHER SHALLOW AND THERE IS NOT A              
GREAT SOUTHWARD PUSH WITH THE COLD AIR AS THE PARENT HIGH IS                    
TRANSIENT AND WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS               
NORTH OF US 64...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. WHILE THE LOW                
LEVELS COOL NOTICEABLY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES JUST A FEW              
THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE            
OF LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST                 
AREA.                                                                           
WILL INCLUDE A NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE ON TUESDAY AS COLD AIR MOVES              
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OR            
FALL SLIGHTLY ON TUES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 50S NEAR              
THE VA BORDER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN              
COASTAL PLAIN. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT             
WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT             
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S             
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...                                                          
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD            
WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT. HPC GUIDE NOTES THAT THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST             
IN BRINING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS ON              
FRI/SAT...THEY PREFER A SLOWER MORE ECMWF LIKE SOLUTION.                        
THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPS THAT AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING              
MOST OF THE PERIOD. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY               
SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY ON THURSDAY                
WITH NO POPS INCLUDED ON FRI AND SAT. TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD              
AIR SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY BE COLDER THEN CURRENT FORECAST BUT             
WILL HOLD OFF MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...                                                         
VFR CEILINGS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS...WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO            
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CEILINGS IN THE TRIAD AND MVFR ELSEWHERE IN GOOD              
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR                 
TONIGHT...CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE MORE DIFFICULT TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI                 
WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION             
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE TRIAD. THERE COULD             
BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT KFAY...BUT CURRENTLY                  
BELIEVE THE PREDOMINANT CHARACTER OF CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR OVERNIGHT            
THERE.                                                                          
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA SUGGEST            
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR LLWS BUT BASIC THRESHOLDS ARE MET EXCEPT AT             
KFAY...WHERE THE 925MB WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW               
FORECAST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT AT 1500FT OR SO OVERNIGHT. LLWS                   
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH AT REMAINDER OF TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING             
AS 925MB WINDS RELAX...TO 20-25KT BY 18Z MONDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION              
SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND THOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR                   
SPRINKLE ANY PLACE IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BEST CHANCES FOR THIS            
WILL BE TOWARD THE TRIAD. TAFS THERE SHOW LENGTHY PERIOD OF -SHRA               
BUT BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EARLY AND AGAIN LATER IN THE             
FM GROUP COINCIDENT WITH PERIODS OF BETTER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS                
FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS.                                                    
BEYOND THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...IN THE MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A PAIR OF COLD            
FRONTS...PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. MOST WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD            
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE            
WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH...              
COINCIDENT WITH AN INITIAL FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH AND WEAKENS.                
A STRONGER COLD FRONT FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT                                                         
SHORT TERM...BLAES                                                              
LONG TERM...BLAES                                                               
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1225 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS                      
AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...A SOUTHERLY             
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD               
COVER...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...                                               
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...                                                       
CHANGES NEARLY INSIGNIFICANT THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE               
HAS MIGRATED NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE ALABAMA...WITH SURFACE WINDS OVER            
THE NC BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.  THE 12Z RAOB FROM GSO FEATURED A               
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH ITS BASE JUST ABOVE 850MB.  VERY               
DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION WAS QUITE DRIER THAN FORECAST IN               
BUFR SOUNDINGS.  THE CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE            
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE                   
APPALACHIANS.                                                                   
ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS AN DEWPOINTS JUST A TAD.  THE               
12Z OBSERVED THICKNESS AT GSO WAS 1284M...3 METERS LOWER THAN                   
FORECAST...WHICH SUGGEST HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN                      
FORECAST.  WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CAA (ALTHOUGH                        
WEAKENING)...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.  WILL ALSO LOWER DEWPOINTS                  
MINIMALLY...SINCE MUCH DRIER AIR THAN FORECAST ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE             
INVERSION SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THROUGH               
DAYTIME MIXING. -SMITH                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER            
ALABAMA...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY.             
A SFC TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ALOFT...            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL DATA SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                 
TRAVERSING THE AREA.                                                            
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HELP SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST OVER THE              
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ~1030 MB SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE               
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC AT ROUGHLY 18Z...MOVING OFFSHORE              
THE MID-ATLANTIC BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE AT THE SFC AND                  
ALOFT...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT                
SUNSHINE WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG...HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE             
ASSOC/W A DEEPENING SFC LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES STREAMS                   
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS VIA A 75-100 KT WESTERLY JET. FCST                
SOUNDINGS SHOW BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE AREA BY ROUGHLY 00Z THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL SHOW                
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z...WITH MOSTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES FROM SUNSET THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS              
HINT AT SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL SHOW A DECREASE TO              
PARTLY CLOUDY FROM MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.                                         
FOR TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE AGREES PRETTY WELL (ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES               
HIGHER) WITH THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES OFF THE GFS/NAM...AND WILL             
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND THE THICKNESSES AND SHOW A RANGE            
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN TO THE UPPER 40S TO             
AROUND 50F IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF                     
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE               
WEST...THIS MAY BE TOO WARM IN THE WEST BY A DEGREE OR TWO. LOWS                
TONIGHT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT WITH PERVASIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD                 
COVER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWS               
WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON WHICH LOCATIONS HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO                 
RADIATE WELL FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...WILL              
BLEND CLOSE TO WHAT MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...WITH A RANGE OF                
27-30F ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ASSOC/W             
THE SFC HIGH. -VINCENT                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
SUNDAY:                                                                         
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY              
SUNDAY...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                 
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CAUSE WARM ADVECTION TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE                
AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT FOR            
LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP. WHILE GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AGREE THAT THE             
WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST IN LOW STRATUS BY                  
15-18Z...THEY ARE MORE AMBIGUOUS TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AND NORTHEAST              
COASTAL PLAIN. WILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST IN            
THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE AN UPSLOPE                    
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT IN            
VICINITY OF THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER               
(PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY) ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY IN ASSOC/W                  
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION. A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT HIGH TEMP FORECAST              
THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES              
START OUT AROUND 1310-1320M 12Z SUN...INCREASING TO 1340-1350M BY               
00Z. WITH FULL SUN...THESE THICKNESSES WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE                 
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...               
HIGHS WOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD               
MOS GUIDANCE...SHOWING A RANGE FROM AROUND 49-50F IN THE TRIAD TO               
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. WOULD NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS BUST 3-5F...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD             
COVER ACROSS THE AREA. W/REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...BOTH THE GFS/NAM            
SHOW LIGHT QPF IN ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT                
AND FOOTHILLS FROM NOON THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS                
SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH SATURATION NOT EVEN EXTENDING UP              
TO THE 0C ISOTHERM. IT WOULD BE TOUGH TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP IN               
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THOSE TYPE OF THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES...            
AND HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF A SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE OF                 
MEASURABLE RAIN AND REPLACE IT WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN THE FAR              
WESTERN PIEDMONT BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE FOR A              
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FURTHER WEST IN THE FOOTHILLS /            
BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT.                                
SUNDAY NIGHT:                                                                   
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW / WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT             
AS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN STRONG             
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE            
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT            
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CANNOT RULE             
OUT SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS...TRIANGLE             
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER SATURATION IS EXPECTED. FCST              
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH SATURATION NOT                
EVEN EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C ISOTHERM...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR               
KEEPING MEASURABLE POPS OUT OF THE FCST. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD                 
COVER AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT MUCH MORE MODERATE LOWS             
THAN SAT NIGHT...AND WILL TREND CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS              
RANGING FROM 44-50F FROM NW TO SE.                                              
MONDAY:                                                                         
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES            
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONT ASSOC/W LOW                
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES CROSSES INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY AND             
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 00Z TUE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW            
A RATHER CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CAP FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE DAY                   
MONDAY...SO ALTHOUGH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM BY               
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SUBSTANTIAL (HEAVY) SHOWER              
ACTIVITY GIVEN THAT THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL SHOULD BE ONLY 8-10 KFT               
AGL. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS                
DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP POPS ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN NO              
(OR VERY LITTLE) UPPER LEVEL HELP. HIGH TEMPS LOOK WAY ABOVE NORMAL             
WITH RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...IN FACT...GFS/NAM FCST            
SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 30 KT FLOW AT 925 MB...AND 35-40 KT FLOW AT               
850 MB. WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOWER              
70S EAST/SE. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW                 
MIXING EVEN IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT AGL IT COULD BE RATHER BREEZY MON             
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW 10-15 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS             
UP TO 25 MPH.                                                                   
MONDAY NIGHT:                                                                   
THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND                    
POSSIBLY THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT.             
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT ON MON NIGHT...VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE             
UPPER LEVELS...AND ONLY VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER            
LEVELS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM TRY AND SHOW               
LIGHT QPF OVER THE ARE MON NIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE BOUNDARY...SO HAVE              
DECIDED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MONDAY              
NIGHT. DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...WILL FCST              
MILD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR             
THIS TIME OF YEAR! THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO THE MEX MOS GUIDANCE               
NUMBERS. -VINCENT                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...                
STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A                 
CHANCE FOR RAIN... THE MOIST LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW... SO RAIN TOTALS            
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW.                                                       
ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND               
LINGERS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER THURSDAY... UNTIL A            
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WORKS ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST                 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE              
FROM THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SLOW             
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL WELL INTO               
THE DAY FRIDAY. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE FRIDAY TIME                
PERIOD.                                                                         
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S... FALLING INTO THE              
50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL            
BE IN THE 40S... THEN RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S             
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. -RHJ                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 1225 PM SATURDAY...                                                       
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.                
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE              
WEST WILL LEAD TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.                       
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OFF AWAY FROM               
THE AREA...BUT RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA.                   
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...A GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY              
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PULLING MOISTURE                  
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT.  STRATUS WITH CEILINGS               
AROUND 2K FEET SHOULD DEVELOP AT GSO/INT BY THE END OF THE VALID TAF            
PERIOD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT SPREAD               
VERY FAR EASTWARD UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS FURTHER.                     
THUS...EXPECT FAY AND RDU TO BE ONLY THE EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS.             
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH            
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OUT JUST WEST OF THE              
AREA BY MON NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.             
IN ADDITION... COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT                
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS WINDS AT 2KT FEET APPROACH                   
35-40KT BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/SMITH                                                       
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...RHJ                                                                 
AVIATION...SMITH                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
309 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...            
THEN SETTLE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...                                               
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER            
ALABAMA...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY.             
A SFC TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ALOFT...            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL DATA SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                 
TRAVERSING THE AREA.                                                            
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HELP SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST OVER THE              
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ~1030 MB SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE               
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC AT ROUGHLY 18Z...MOVING OFFSHORE              
THE MID-ATLANTIC BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE AT THE SFC AND                  
ALOFT...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT                
SUNSHINE WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG...HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE             
ASSOC/W A DEEPENING SFC LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES STREAMS                   
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS VIA A 75-100 KT WESTERLY JET. FCST                
SOUNDINGS SHOW BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE AREA BY ROUGHLY 00Z THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL SHOW                
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z...WITH MOSTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES FROM SUNSET THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS              
HINT AT SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL SHOW A DECREASE TO              
PARTLY CLOUDY FROM MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.                                         
FOR TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE AGREES PRETTY WELL (ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES               
HIGHER) WITH THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES OFF THE GFS/NAM...AND WILL             
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND THE THICKNESSES AND SHOW A RANGE            
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN TO THE UPPER 40S TO             
AROUND 50F IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF                     
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE               
WEST...THIS MAY BE TOO WARM IN THE WEST BY A DEGREE OR TWO. LOWS                
TONIGHT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT WITH PERVASIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD                 
COVER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWS               
WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON WHICH LOCATIONS HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO                 
RADIATE WELL FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...WILL              
BLEND CLOSE TO WHAT MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...WITH A RANGE OF                
27-30F ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ASSOC/W             
THE SFC HIGH. -VINCENT                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
SUNDAY:                                                                         
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY              
SUNDAY...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                 
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CAUSE WARM ADVECTION TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE                
AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT FOR            
LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP. WHILE GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AGREE THAT THE             
WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST IN LOW STRATUS BY                  
15-18Z...THEY ARE MORE AMBIGUOUS TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AND NORTHEAST              
COASTAL PLAIN. WILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST IN            
THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE AN UPSLOPE                    
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT IN            
VICINITY OF THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER               
(PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY) ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY IN ASSOC/W                  
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION. A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT HIGH TEMP FORECAST              
THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES              
START OUT AROUND 1310-1320M 12Z SUN...INCREASING TO 1340-1350M BY               
00Z. WITH FULL SUN...THESE THICKNESSES WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE                 
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...               
HIGHS WOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD               
MOS GUIDANCE...SHOWING A RANGE FROM AROUND 49-50F IN THE TRIAD TO               
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. WOULD NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS BUST 3-5F...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD             
COVER ACROSS THE AREA. W/REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...BOTH THE GFS/NAM            
SHOW LIGHT QPF IN ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT                
AND FOOTHILLS FROM NOON THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS                
SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH SATURATION NOT EVEN EXTENDING UP              
TO THE 0C ISOTHERM. IT WOULD BE TOUGH TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP IN               
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THOSE TYPE OF THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES...            
AND HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF A SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE OF                 
MEASURABLE RAIN AND REPLACE IT WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN THE FAR              
WESTERN PIEDMONT BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE FOR A              
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FURTHER WEST IN THE FOOTHILLS /            
BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT.                                
SUNDAY NIGHT:                                                                   
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW / WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT             
AS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN STRONG             
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE            
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT            
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CANNOT RULE             
OUT SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS...TRIANGLE             
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER SATURATION IS EXPECTED. FCST              
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH SATURATION NOT                
EVEN EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C ISOTHERM...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR               
KEEPING MEASURABLE POPS OUT OF THE FCST. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD                 
COVER AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT MUCH MORE MODERATE LOWS             
THAN SAT NIGHT...AND WILL TREND CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS              
RANGING FROM 44-50F FROM NW TO SE.                                              
MONDAY:                                                                         
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES            
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONT ASSOC/W LOW                
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES CROSSES INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY AND             
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 00Z TUE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW            
A RATHER CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CAP FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE DAY                   
MONDAY...SO ALTHOUGH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM BY               
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SUBSTANTIAL (HEAVY) SHOWER              
ACTIVITY GIVEN THAT THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL SHOULD BE ONLY 8-10 KFT               
AGL. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS                
DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP POPS ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN NO              
(OR VERY LITTLE) UPPER LEVEL HELP. HIGH TEMPS LOOK WAY ABOVE NORMAL             
WITH RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...IN FACT...GFS/NAM FCST            
SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 30 KT FLOW AT 925 MB...AND 35-40 KT FLOW AT               
850 MB. WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOWER              
70S EAST/SE. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW                 
MIXING EVEN IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT AGL IT COULD BE RATHER BREEZY MON             
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW 10-15 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS             
UP TO 25 MPH.                                                                   
MONDAY NIGHT:                                                                   
THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND                    
POSSIBLY THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT.             
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT ON MON NIGHT...VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE             
UPPER LEVELS...AND ONLY VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER            
LEVELS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM TRY AND SHOW               
LIGHT QPF OVER THE ARE MON NIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE BOUNDARY...SO HAVE              
DECIDED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MONDAY              
NIGHT. DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...WILL FCST              
MILD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR             
THIS TIME OF YEAR! THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO THE MEX MOS GUIDANCE               
NUMBERS. -VINCENT                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...                
STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A                 
CHANCE FOR RAIN... THE MOIST LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW... SO RAIN TOTALS            
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW.                                                       
ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND               
LINGERS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER THURSDAY... UNTIL A            
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WORKS ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST                 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE              
FROM THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SLOW             
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL WELL INTO               
THE DAY FRIDAY. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE FRIDAY TIME                
PERIOD.                                                                         
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S... FALLING INTO THE              
50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL            
BE IN THE 40S... THEN RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S             
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. -RHJ                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...                                                       
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 06-09Z THIS                    
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST            
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR OR                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BKN VFR              
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY (AS OF 05Z) LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE              
TRIAD IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/ MOUNTAINS...DO NOT EXPECT THIS CLOUD                 
COVER TO AFFECT THE KINT/KGSO TAF SITES. EVEN IF IT DID...IT WOULD              
BE FOR JUST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...AND CEILINGS WOULD BE VFR IN             
THE 4-5 KFT RANGE. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR                 
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AT KINT/KGSO/KRDU...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT               
EXISTS TO ALLOW SOME GUSTINESS AT KFAY/KRWI TAF SITES THROUGH                   
ROUGHLY 07-09Z...AFTER WHICH THOSE TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME                      
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT ~5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL                  
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BY 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH               
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD.                                             
LOOKING BEYOND THIS EVENING...MVFR OR IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS ARE                 
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS OFFSHORE            
AND RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST ENSUES. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE                 
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AT FAY AND SPREAD OVER THE REST OF                
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS MAY              
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NC BUT THEN                
STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST INTO MIDWEEK. WE WILL ALSO SEE RAIN                
CHANCES FROM LATE SUNDAY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY AT               
INT/GSO...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT. -VINCENT                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...RHJ                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
830 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
SHORT TERM...CHALLENGES FOR UPDATE INVOLVE ONGOING HEADLINES AND                
TEMPERATURES. SO FAR EARLY IN THE EVENT NO BIG SURPRISES. SNOW AREA             
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA IN AREA OF BEST                
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 290K SURFACE.                     
CURRENTLY ENHANCED SNOW BAND ROUGHLY ALONG I94/HIGHWAY 10 CORRIDOR              
FROM CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO DTL. SURFACE LOW TO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST               
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TIGHTENING OF                 
SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE. AS                
SNOW GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY VISIBILITIES                    
BEGINNING TO DROP WITH SOME LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ADVISING NO TRAVEL            
DUE TO ZERO VSBY. OVER FAR SE FA PRETTY QUIET AS YET HOWEVER KABR               
RADAR INDICATING ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW LIFTING NE AND RUC CONTINUES             
IN AGREEMENT OF LIFTING ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW THROUGH SE THIRD OF FA            
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A RESULT FEEL CURRENT HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE AND            
WILL KEEP TIMING AND BLIZZARD/WINTER STORM COVERAGE GOING FOR NOW.              
TEMPERATURES BEHIND BAROCLINIC RIBBON DROPPING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER             
THAN CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM MINIMUMS SHOULD               
NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. WILL ONLY BE MAKING MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT                 
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REMAIN ACROSS FA OVERNIGHT              
AND EXPECT VSBYS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED            
OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH WIND SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY BLO 1 MILE LATE            
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ024-026>030-038-             
     039-049-052.                                                               
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     NDZ053.                                                                    
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-             
     054.                                                                       
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>003-005-007-             
     008-013>015-022.                                                           
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     MNZ027-029-030-040.                                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-016-             
     017-023-024-028.                                                           
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ004.                         
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY              
     FOR MNZ031-032.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1033 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...SYSTEM IS UNFOLDING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED SO FAR.               
RADAR IMAGERY IS INDICATING -SN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NW ND WITH                 
RETURNS BEGINNING TO FILL IN TO THE SOUTH. AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO               
EVOLVE WOULD EXPECT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO STRENGTHEN AND GRADUALLY                 
MOVE INTO THIS FA. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LOW-LEVEL                
(925MB) COLD AIR ADVECTION IS A BIT STRONGER AS SFC TEMPS ACROSS                
THE NW FA CONTINUE TO FALL. 12Z RUC/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW 925MB COLD AIR             
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS                  
(STEADY OR FALLING) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                        
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ONSET OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WITH DECENT                  
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT QUICKER THAN              
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. MUCH WILL DEPEND UPON FALLING SNOW INTENSITY.               
STILL A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...AND THINK 00Z START TIME FOR               
MUCH OF THE BLIZZARD AREA STILL REASONABLE (CONSIDERING EXPECTED                
SNOW INTENSITY AND WIND SPEEDS). WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND SPEEDS                
AND SNOW INTENSITY...BUT DO NOT FORESEE NEEDING TO BEGIN BLIZZARD               
ANY EARLIER.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO                 
15 TO 25 MPH TODAY AND TO 20 TO 35 MPH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PATCHY               
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY MVFR CIGS TODAY. THEN                
INCREASINGLY LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT                
INTO SUNDAY CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TOUGH FCST THIS MORNING...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT                 
BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE SLIGHT BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN SNOW                   
AREA. GFS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH SFC LOW MORE OVER                
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA THEN TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN....NAM               
A BIT FARTHER NORTH MORE FROM SIOUX FALLS-BROOKINGS TO NORTHWEST                
WISCONSIN AND THIS IS SIMILAR TO CANADIAN. SOME WRF AND MM5 MODELS              
ON THE WEB VIA UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN AND WFO DETROIT INDICATE                 
SFC LOW FARTHER NORTH FROM WATERTOWN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THIS               
ALMOST FITS THE RUC BETTER. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN                   
IMPACT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS FALL SUNDAY.                                 
FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD AND ALREADY                  
SEEING EVIDENCE OF 5-10 DEGREE TEMP FALL ALONG MB/ND BORDER SINCE               
06Z. HOW FAST THIS WILL DROP SOUTH WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPS                    
TODAY...BUT FOR MOST AREAS THEY WILL FALL FROM 12Z READINGS EXCEPT              
FOR FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN. LIGHT SNOW WILL STREAK EAST ALONG                      
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND THIS HAS BEEN IN AGREEMENT IN PAST MODEL              
RUNS. AREA OF SNOW CAUSED BY 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE OVERRUNING     
THE COLD AIRMASS.                                                               
TONIGHT WILL START TO SEE THE AFFECTS OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC                 
LOW TAKE OVER. MODEL DATA SHOWS STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION WITH               
EAST WINDS AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA OVER A COOLING SFC-925 MB                    
LAYER. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AT 850 MB AND TIME HEIGHT               
CROSS SECTIONS AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS ALL SHOW DEEP VERTICAL                  
MOTION UP TO 300 MB 06Z SUN THRU 00Z MON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER               
THE AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW -11 TO -14C AIR IN THE 700 MB               
LAYER AND IN AREA OF MAX VERTICAL MOTION SO SNOW GROWTH WILL BE                 
EFFICIENT. ANOTHER THING IS JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL THERE BE AS                  
TEMPS DROP BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE VERY HIGH              
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. ALL IN ALL WOULD APPEAR TO A GOOD SET UP FOR              
HVY SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MAX QPF VALUES FROM THIS EVENT OVER NRN MN               
AND BEST THREAT FOR 12+ WOULD BE IN THE BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREAS               
WITH A BIT LESS SNOWFALL FARTHER WEST INTO ERN ND. SREF MODEL                   
WOULD INDICATE HIGHEST AMTS NRN ND INTO NRN MN WITH A SHARP CUTOFF              
INTO NRN SD WHILE GFS WOULD HAVE HVY QPF INTO SD.                               
AS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WINDS IN THE 925 MB TO SFC LAYER TO                
GET PRETTY STRONG UP TO NR 40 KTS ON SUNDAY AND THEY DO TURN                    
NORTHERLY OVER ERN ND AND THE VALLEY. 850 MB WINDS NEVER REALLY                 
LINK UP BUT THE SFC GRADIENT IS PRETTY TIGHT WHICH USUALLY                      
OVERCOMES ANY LACK OF A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER. THUS WOULD EXPECT                 
925 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KTS TO MIX DOWN FOR GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED                  
VALUES CLOSER TO 25-30 KTS MOSTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.             
THESE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH                    
FALLING SNOW. ANOTHER PLUS IS THAT TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS                 
WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW. SO ALL IN ALL LOOKS PRETTY CONFIDENT FOR               
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVEN IF SOME               
AREAS MAY NOT SEE HUGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW.                                         
LONG TERM...                                                                    
NO CHANGES MADE.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR              
     NDZ049-052-053.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.                                
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR              
     MNZ029-030-040.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027.                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY             
     FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028.                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY              
     FOR MNZ031-032.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
430 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TOUGH FCST THIS MORNING...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT                 
BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE SLIGHT BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN SNOW                   
AREA. GFS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH SFC LOW MORE OVER                
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA THEN TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN....NAM               
A BIT FARTHER NORTH MORE FROM SIOUX FALLS-BROOKINGS TO NORTHWEST                
WISCONSIN AND THIS IS SIMILAR TO CANADIAN. SOME WRF AND MM5 MODELS              
ON THE WEB VIA UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN AND WFO DETROIT INDICATE                 
SFC LOW FARTHER NORTH FROM WATERTOWN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THIS               
ALMOST FITS THE RUC BETTER. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN                   
IMPACT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS FALL SUNDAY.                                 
FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD AND ALREADY                  
SEEING EVIDENCE OF 5-10 DEGREE TEMP FALL ALONG MB/ND BORDER SINCE               
06Z. HOW FAST THIS WILL DROP SOUTH WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPS                    
TODAY...BUT FOR MOST AREAS THEY WILL FALL FROM 12Z READINGS EXCEPT              
FOR FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN. LIGHT SNOW WILL STREAK EAST ALONG                      
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND THIS HAS BEEN IN AGREEMENT IN PAST MODEL              
RUNS. AREA OF SNOW CAUSED BY 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE OVERRUNING     
THE COLD AIRMASS.                                                               
TONIGHT WILL START TO SEE THE AFFECTS OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC                 
LOW TAKE OVER. MODEL DATA SHOWS STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION WITH               
EAST WINDS AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA OVER A COOLING SFC-925 MB                    
LAYER. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AT 850 MB AND TIME HEIGHT               
CROSS SECTIONS AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS ALL SHOW DEEP VERTICAL                  
MOTION UP TO 300 MB 06Z SUN THRU 00Z MON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER               
THE AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW -11 TO -14C AIR IN THE 700 MB               
LAYER AND IN AREA OF MAX VERTICAL MOTION SO SNOW GROWTH WILL BE                 
EFFICIENT. ANOTHER THING IS JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL THERE BE AS                  
TEMPS DROP BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE VERY HIGH              
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. ALL IN ALL WOULD APPEAR TO A GOOD SET UP FOR              
HVY SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MAX QPF VALUES FROM THIS EVENT OVER NRN MN               
AND BEST THREAT FOR 12+ WOULD BE IN THE BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREAS               
WITH A BIT LESS SNOWFALL FARTHER WEST INTO ERN ND. SREF MODEL                   
WOULD INDICATE HIGHEST AMTS NRN ND INTO NRN MN WITH A SHARP CUTOFF              
INTO NRN SD WHILE GFS WOULD HAVE HVY QPF INTO SD.                               
AS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WINDS IN THE 925 MB TO SFC LAYER TO                
GET PRETTY STRONG UP TO NR 40 KTS ON SUNDAY AND THEY DO TURN                    
NORTHERLY OVER ERN ND AND THE VALLEY. 850 MB WINDS NEVER REALLY                 
LINK UP BUT THE SFC GRADIENT IS PRETTY TIGHT WHICH USUALLY                      
OVERCOMES ANY LACK OF A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER. THUS WOULD EXPECT                 
925 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KTS TO MIX DOWN FOR GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED                  
VALUES CLOSER TO 25-30 KTS MOSTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.             
THESE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH                    
FALLING SNOW. ANOTHER PLUS IS THAT TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS                 
WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW. SO ALL IN ALL LOOKS PRETTY CONFIDENT FOR               
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVEN IF SOME               
AREAS MAY NOT SEE HUGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW.                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NO CHANGES MADE.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH                
TODAY AND TO 20 TO 35 MPH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS                 
AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY MVFR CIGS TODAY. THEN INCREASINGLY              
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY                 
CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR              
     NDZ049-052-053.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.                                
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR              
     MNZ029-030-040.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027.                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY             
     FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028.                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY              
     FOR MNZ031-032.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1251 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW                      
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. RAIN WILL                
BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT                   
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON              
MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
FLO HAS BECOME SRLY THIS MRNG AS SFC LO BEGINS TO GET ITS ACT                   
TOGETHER IN THE SRN PLAINS. WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO                 
NORTHWEST OF REGION SPREADING MID LVL CLOUDS INTO FCST AREA. ADDL               
MID/HI LVL CLOUDS OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VLY POISED TO OVERSPREAD                 
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS INDCG CROSS-              
CONTOUR ISENT LIFT AND LO LVL WAA BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY MID AFTN               
IN THE MID LVLS (300-305K LEVELS)...AND THAT WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE              
TO MSTLY CLDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. CANNOT COMPLETELY                
RULE OUT A FLURRY LATER THIS AFTN ACRS WEST CNTRL OH BUT MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS INDCG SUCH A DRY BNDRY LYR THAT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY                    
MENTION ATTM. WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN THIS AFTN...HAVE LOWERED FCST              
HIGHS A FEW DEG DESPITE DVLPG WAA. EXPECT AFTN HIGHS WILL RISE                  
MAINLY INTO THE 30S...WITH POTENTIAL AT L40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE              
OHIO RIVER.                                                                     
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY SENT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS EVENING...AS FA REMAINS                     
BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH AND LOW OVER THE PLAINS. GFS CONTINUES TO               
TRY AND BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN ACRS THE N/NW TONIGHT. IT IS THE                  
OUTLIER...NOT SUPPORTED BY THE NAM/ECMWF OR THE SREF. KEPT FA DRY               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
CDFNT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW...MOVES INTO THE WRN OH VLY BY                  
LATE SUNDAY. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND P DEFS REMAINS ACRS THE WRN               
HALF OF THE FA. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW                           
LEVELS...SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN CHC CONFINED TO THE W ON SUNDAY.                  
PCPN CHCS WILL INCREASE AS SUNDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES AS CDFNT MOVES               
E UP THE OH VLY. AHEAD OF FNT...H8 JET OF 40-50 KTS WILL AFFECT                 
THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE                  
ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. AREA COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 KTS. FOR                       
NOW...THINK THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT                
WILL MENTION THE WINDS IN THE HWO.                                              
FNT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPS MAY RAISE FOR A FEW HOURS             
IN THE MORNING...BUT THEN WILL FALL DURING THE AFTN AS THE COLD                 
AIR WORKS IN.                                                                   
TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV LOW TEMPS GUIDANCE FOR                           
TONIGHT...THEN THE ME GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY...SINCE WENT DRIER THAN                
THE GFS. WITH THE WIND AND RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WENT WITH THE              
WARMER MET TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL IN THE FA BEHIND THE CDFNT MONDAY                
NIGHT...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FRONT STALLS               
IN KY/WV LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A WAV                
ON FRONT FOR TUE...WITH THICKNESSES PUSHING BACK TO THE N.                      
THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENUF FOR PCPN TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN IN THE S              
AND A SN/RA MIX IN THE N. GFS IS STRONGER WITH SFC LOW THAT PUSHES              
ACRS THE REGION TUE NGT. WENT CLOSER TO THE WEAKER ECMWF. GFS                   
TRIES TO PUSH ANOTHER WAV N ON WED. STAYED WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION              
OF A STRONGER HIGH OVER THE OH VLY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 18Z SUNDAY. MID/HI LVL CLOUDS                      
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN AS ISENT LIFT AND               
LO LVL WAA BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACRS THE REGION. INITIAL SHOT OF                 
MID LVL CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG WITH                  
ONLY SCT CLOUDS AS DRIER AIR BRIEFLY ADVECTS INTO OH VLY WITH SFC               
HI PRES ANCHORED THRU THE CAROLINAS. 50KT 850 LLJ ROTATES AHEAD OF              
DEEP SFC LO MOVING THRU CNTRL PLAINS AND ACRS REGION LATE TONIGHT.              
SRLY WINDS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT ENUF FOR SVRL HOURS TO ALLOW FOR                  
LLWS CRITERIA TO BE MET AS BNDRY LYR WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A SW                 
DIR. ALL OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD DROP BELOW LLWS CRIT AFTER                     
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS INCREASE ABV 15KTS. DEEPER LO LVL                  
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA SUN MRNG WITH CIGS LOWERING              
INTO AN OVC SC DECK. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SRLY WINDS GUSTING TO                
30-35KTS BY LATE SUN MRNG AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. COULD SEE A              
FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLD -SHRA AT WESTERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE FCST              
PERIOD...BUT CHANCE REMAINS LOW ENUF TO KEEP OUT OF TERMINALS                   
ATTM.                                                                           
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND                 
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SITES                                                                
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...SITES                                                              
LONG TERM...SITES                                                               
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD                   
FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS GOING SCATTERED IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.                 
COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE TULSA AREA AROUND 21Z...THEN SE TO KMLC-              
KXNA NEAR 00Z AND THROUGH FSM BY 04Z. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND                
FRONT MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LIGHT -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER NW ARKANSAS              
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING              
RAIN OR DRIZZLE MENTIONED AT KXNA/KFYV BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUM.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ARCTIC FRONT BARRELING SOUTH AND AT 8 AM WAS THROUGH WICHITA AND                
EXTENDED BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE IT MAY SLOW A                
LITTLE DURING THE DAY IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD              
OF SCHEDULE AND IS EVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN LOCAL WRF AND RUC13.               
WILL BE ISSUING UPDATES AS NECESSARY THIS MORNING TO REFLECT                    
TIMING. PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO                
FAR NE OKLAHOMA THROUGH NW ARKANSAS.                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN NEAR THE TUL/RVS AREA AND EXTEND                              
SE TO NEAR FSM.  CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY BECOME                                  
SCATTERED BY MID MORNING/RISING ABOVE 3KFT. GUSTY                               
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF STRONG COLD                                  
FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TUL                                  
AREA AROUND 400 PM. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY                               
REMAIN OVER NW ARK THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                              
HOURS ALONG THE FRONT AND IS COVERED WITH A                                     
PROB30 GROUP.                                                                   
AVIATION=12                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
WILD SWINGS AND OSCILLATIONS OF THE WEATHER PENDULUM                            
COMING UP.  UNSEASONABLY MILD  (AT OR NEAR RECORDS)                             
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 20 GUSTING TO ABOUT 40.  NOT                             
QUITE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY.  10Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS                             
ARCTIC FRONT NOW HALF WAY THROUGH KANSAS. NORTHWEST                             
KANSAS IN THE TEENS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS 60.                            
MODELS HAVE BEEN  CONSISTENT WITH THIS ARCTIC FRONT                             
PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE VERY CLOSE                             
TO INTERSTATE 44 AXIS @ 5PM. COLD AIR COMING FASTER                             
THAN MODELS SIGNAL.  PRECIP ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE                             
THE COLD DRY AIR RUSHES IN SO FAST. A WINTRY MIX OF                             
PRECIP CHANGING FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN FREEZING                             
DRIZZLE OR SLEET.  CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LESS                             
THAN 50 PERCENT AT MOST EASTERN OKLAHOMA ZONES WITH                             
A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.                               
LITTLE CHANCE RESIDUAL PRECIP MONDAY EXCEPT EXTREME                             
SOUTHEAST.   MONDAY WILL BE AS UNSEASONABLY COLD AS                             
TODAY IS UNSEASONABLY WARM.                                                     
LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL FORECAST TUESDAY - THURSDAY AS                             
BOUNDARY BETWEEN ATTIC AIR AND MUCH WARMER AIR JUST                             
SOUTH OSCILLATES NORTH INTO... OR NEAR OUR FORECAST                             
AREA..THEN EVENTUAL BACK SOUTH. MODEL SURFACE TEMPS                             
VARY BY GREATER  THAN 25 DEGREES FOR FORECAST TEMPS                             
VALID AT THE SAME TIME. ARCTIC AIR ONCE IN PLACE IS                             
OFTEN DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE SO LEANED HEAVILY COLD.                             
MODELS (GFS ECMWF GLOBAL) DO AGREE THAT ANOTHER SHOT                            
OF VERY COLD WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.   GW                             
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-           
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-                   
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-                   
     OKZ074.                                                                    
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...99                                                                 
LONG TERM....99                                                                 
AVIATION...14                                                                   
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
829 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ARCTIC FRONT BARRELING SOUTH AND AT 8 AM WAS THROUGH WICHITA AND                
EXTENDED BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE IT MAY SLOW A                
LITTLE DURING THE DAY IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD              
OF SCHEDULE AND IS EVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN LOCAL WRF AND RUC13.               
WILL BE ISSUING UPDATES AS NECESSARY THIS MORNING TO REFLECT                    
TIMING. PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO                
FAR NE OKLAHOMA THROUGH NW ARKANSAS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN NEAR THE TUL/RVS AREA AND EXTEND                              
SE TO NEAR FSM.  CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY BECOME                                  
SCATTERED BY MID MORNING/RISING ABOVE 3KFT. GUSTY                               
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF STRONG COLD                                  
FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TUL                                  
AREA AROUND 400 PM. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY                               
REMAIN OVER NW ARK THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                              
HOURS ALONG THE FRONT AND IS COVERED WITH A                                     
PROB30 GROUP.                                                                   
AVIATION=12                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
WILD SWINGS AND OSCILLATIONS OF THE WEATHER PENDULUM                            
COMING UP.  UNSEASONABLY MILD  (AT OR NEAR RECORDS)                             
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 20 GUSTING TO ABOUT 40.  NOT                             
QUITE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY.  10Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS                             
ARCTIC FRONT NOW HALF WAY THROUGH KANSAS. NORTHWEST                             
KANSAS IN THE TEENS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS 60.                            
MODELS HAVE BEEN  CONSISTENT WITH THIS ARCTIC FRONT                             
PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE VERY CLOSE                             
TO INTERSTATE 44 AXIS @ 5PM. COLD AIR COMING FASTER                             
THAN MODELS SIGNAL.  PRECIP ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE                             
THE COLD DRY AIR RUSHES IN SO FAST. A WINTRY MIX OF                             
PRECIP CHANGING FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN FREEZING                             
DRIZZLE OR SLEET.  CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LESS                             
THAN 50 PERCENT AT MOST EASTERN OKLAHOMA ZONES WITH                             
A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.                               
LITTLE CHANCE RESIDUAL PRECIP MONDAY EXCEPT EXTREME                             
SOUTHEAST.   MONDAY WILL BE AS UNSEASONABLY COLD AS                             
TODAY IS UNSEASONABLY WARM.                                                     
LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL FORECAST TUESDAY - THURSDAY AS                             
BOUNDARY BETWEEN ATTIC AIR AND MUCH WARMER AIR JUST                             
SOUTH OSCILLATES NORTH INTO... OR NEAR OUR FORECAST                             
AREA..THEN EVENTUAL BACK SOUTH. MODEL SURFACE TEMPS                             
VARY BY GREATER  THAN 25 DEGREES FOR FORECAST TEMPS                             
VALID AT THE SAME TIME. ARCTIC AIR ONCE IN PLACE IS                             
OFTEN DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE SO LEANED HEAVILY COLD.                             
MODELS (GFS ECMWF GLOBAL) DO AGREE THAT ANOTHER SHOT                            
OF VERY COLD WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.   GW                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   72  21  28  20 /  10  30  10  20                                          
FSM   73  31  33  29 /  30  70  10  30                                          
MLC   74  25  32  27 /  10  40  10  20                                          
BVO   68  18  25  20 /  10  30  10  20                                          
FYV   67  22  28  25 /  30  60  10  30                                          
BYV   65  22  25  21 /  40  70  10  30                                          
MKO   72  24  28  21 /  20  30  10  20                                          
MIO   68  20  26  19 /  20  50  10  20                                          
F10   73  24  29  21 /  10  30  10  20                                          
HHW   73  33  37  31 /  20  40  20  40                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-           
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-                   
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-                   
     OKZ074.                                                                    
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...14                                                                 
LONG TERM....15                                                                 
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
459 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAS TAKEN A LITTLE WHILE FOR PRECIP TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN CWA THIS           
MORNING...AS MID LEVEL FRONT REMAINED WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL UPPER              
LEVEL WAVE BEGAN TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF WYOMING. SURFACE             
OBSERVATIONS IN THE WEST BEGAN REPORTING BLOWING SNOW EVEN IN ADVANCE           
OF THE FALLING PRECIP THOUGH...EVIDENCE OF THE POWERFUL WINDS BEHIND            
THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS LOCATED BETWEEN KSUX-KCKP IN NORTHWEST               
IOWA AS OF 10Z. VERY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE                 
SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH 10Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 20-25F SPREAD                  
BETWEEN I-29 CORRIDOR AND JAMES VALLEY. RUC AND NAM 2 METER TEMPS               
SEEMED TO HAVE TO BEST HANDLE ON THE SHARP GRADIENT SO FAR...AND                
HAVE USED THEM AS A GUIDE FOR PUSHING THE COLD AIR THROUGH EASTERN              
CWA THIS MORNING.                                                               
BACK TO THE PRECIP...ECHOES HAVE EXPANDED WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER IN            
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...AND GENERAL IDEA OF LIFTING HEAVIEST OF PRECIP           
ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS VERY              
REASONABLE GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND FOCUS OF DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT IN           
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE IN THESE AREAS. WEAKLY STABLE PROFILE ABOVE           
THE MID LEVEL FRONT COULD IN FACT ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND HAVE           
BUMPED TOTALS UP TO A MAX AROUND 8 INCHES OR A LITTLE MORE ALONG AND            
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14 IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHER                  
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING               
WINTER HEADLINES. WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING IN AREA WHERE                
GREATEST SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH WINTER WEATHER            
ADVISORY MAINLY FOR BLOWING SNOW THREAT FARTHER SOUTHEAST WHERE SNOW            
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE LIMITED. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES           
AT THIS POINT WAS TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME TO             
MATCH UP WITH BLIZZARD WARNING EXPIRATION AT 06Z TONIGHT. THOUGH SNOW           
WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE WAVE             
LIFTS NORTHEAST...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW            
THREAT INTO THE EVENING. WINDS STRONG ENOUGH...IN FACT...THAT EVEN              
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA WILL GET IN ON THE HEADLINES THOUGH...WITH A              
WIND ADVISORY FROM SOUTHEAST OF A KSUX-KSPW LINE INTO THE EARLY                 
EVENING.                                                                        
FOCUS OF CONCERN SHIFTS TO ARCTIC AIR AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS                 
VALUES OVERNIGHT AND REALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE SURFACE               
RIDGE MOVES IN AND ALLOWS WINDS TO DROP OFF. GOING LOW TEMPS IN THE             
10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE NORTH OF I-90 TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT           
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL LIKELY FORCE WIND CHILLS INTO              
WARNING RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH BLIZZARD            
JUST STARTING TO CRANK UP ACROSS THE AREA...DID NOT WANT TO MUDDLE              
HEADLINES BY ADDING IN WIND CHILL HEADLINE JUST YET. WILL HIGHLIGHT             
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE FORECAST/HWO FOR NOW.                          
STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY AS                  
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE.                
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH            
2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND IFR-LIFR VSBYS           
EXPECTED IN SN/BLSN TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
WITH SFC WNDS 30-40KTS AND VLIFR VSBYS IN SN/BLSN WILL BE MOST                  
PREVALENT NORTHWEST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMWM LINE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH               
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT              
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND SURFACE                
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ001-             
     012-020.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-             
     003-013.                                                                   
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING             
     FOR IAZ014-021-022-031-032.                                                
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ080-             
     089-097-098.                                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ081-             
     090.                                                                       
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072.                
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ013.             
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING             
     FOR NEZ014.                                                                
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ061-             
     062-065>071.                                                               
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ038>040-050-            
     052>060-063-064.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH                                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
656 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL CO.              
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAD 130KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CO WITH                 
STRONG LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION. STRONG LIFT IMPACTING AREA OF                  
STEEP LAPSE ABOVE ARCTIC AIR WHICH HAS SLIPPED INTO NE. FEW                     
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED EARLIER. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED                     
CONVECTION SN MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 00Z RUC HAS BAND              
OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FROM EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD THROUGH                 
09Z. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND                   
SHIFT EAST. ANOTHER PUSH OF LIFT WILL BE FURTHER EAST OVER THE CWA              
LATER TONIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH                    
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. BITTER COLD/WIND CHILLS               
CONTINUE UNABATED INTO THE AREA.                                                
BLIZZARD WARNING LOOKS GOOD. ADDED CUSTER/FALL RIVER TO THE WINTER              
STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SN/BLSN.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT STRETCHING              
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH                        
DAKOTA...WITH LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS                  
PLACES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AS UPPER TROF WITH AXIS               
STRETCHING FROM FAR WESTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO                     
CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING BROAD AREA OF              
SNOWFALL OVER EASTERN MONTANA STRETCHING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND             
NUDGING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DIVE                
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE PROGRESSING FRONT...WITH READINGS AROUND             
0 ALREADY NOTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SOME             
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT MARCHES                
THROUGH...THOUGH SHOULD SWITCH TO SNOW QUICKLY.                                 
FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD              
SLIDE WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW              
WILL SWING INTO NEBRASKA WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. WINDS               
WILL INCREASE GREATLY THIS EVENING BRINGING IN THE VERY COLD AIR.               
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHERN              
INTO THE CENTRAL BLACK HILLS. THE SECOND AREA OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS            
IS EXPECTED TO BE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT              
WHERE TIGHT GRADIENT OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOTED. GFS TENDS TO             
PUT THIS FEATURE FURTHER EAST WITH NAM KEEPING IT OVER OUR AREA.                
WITH THE NAMS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE PUT               
MORE VALUE INTO IT.                                                             
FOR SUNDAY...STORM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WHILE UPPER TROF              
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH...WITH AXIS SLIDING INTO WESTERN                    
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE EVENING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO            
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WINDS STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER               
OFF. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY OVER THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL            
BECOME DANGEROUSLY LOW OVERNIGHT.                                               
ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THOUGH SOME WARMER             
AIR WILL WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK                 
HILLS. WITH THE OVERRUNNING FROM THIS...HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF              
SNOW OVER THE WEST EARLY...PUSHING EAST LATER IN THE EVENING.                   
EXTENDED...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX ON               
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY. OVERRUNNING             
WARM AIR WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH              
SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPS MODERATE MAINLY INTO 20S...SOME TEENS IN FAR            
NRN SD. WED SHOULD BE DRY WITH A CHC OF SNOW OVER SRN AREAS LATE WED            
NITE INTO THURS AS A SYSTEM MVS SOUTH OF REGION. NEXT CHC OF PCPN               
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER                 
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW.            
AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU 20Z...THEN                   
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH IFR CONDS IN SNOW/BLSN/LOW            
CIGS LIKELY BY 03Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE                
FCST PERIOD.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL BLACK               
     HILLS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.                                                
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST /10 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR BENNETT-            
     MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP.                                                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR FALL RIVER-                 
     SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS.                                  
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR BUTTE-CUSTER CO                 
     PLAINS-HAAKON-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-NORTHERN                  
     FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-                  
     PERKINS-RAPID CITY-SHANNON-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-                       
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-ZIEBACH.                                       
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYOMING BLACK               
     HILLS.                                                                     
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK-             
     NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
748 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR FRONTAL POSITION. AT                
740 PM THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CISCO TO MINERAL WELLS TO                    
GAINESVILLE AND IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON KFWS 88D...MOVING TO THE                  
SOUTH AT AROUND 24 KTS. THIS WILL PUT IT AT DENTON AROUND 815                   
PM... DOWNTOWN FORT WORTH AROUND 850 PM...DFW AT 905 PM...AND                   
DOWNTOWN DALLAS AROUND 930 PM. ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH              
GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS NOT                    
EXPECTED TO LAST TOO LONG...SO WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS MUCH AS 30-35 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT                
AND ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF               
THE CWA.                                                                        
CURRENT UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES              
ACROSS THE NORTH BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND ADJUST TIMING OF FRONT               
IN THE HOURLY GRIDS MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE.                  
SOME LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BUT NO OBS SITES              
REPORTING ANY PRECIP. WILL LIKELY BE MAKING SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES               
TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION.             
91/DUNN                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF AN ADA OK                        
/KADA/...FREDERICK OK /KFDR/...LUBBOCK TX /KLBB/ LINE AS OF                     
23Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ACCELERATE AFTER                  
SUNSET. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX 02-03Z...                   
AND INTO THE WACO AREA AROUND 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS OF              
20 KNOTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF I-35. RAIN CHANCES             
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO              
30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING....WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED            
TO DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS  DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY                        
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY WILL BE LIGHT...BUT               
TEMPERATURES IN THE METROPLEX WILL BE NEAR FREEZING. HAVE HELD OFF              
FOR NOW ON MENTIONING ANY -DZ OR -FZDZ IN THE KDFW TAF FOR THE 24-36            
HOUR PERIOD.                                                                    
58                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE               
AND OKLAHOMA AND WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE              
FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD                
ACCELERATE AFTER SUNSET. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER                   
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 830 PM                
AND 10 PM...AND MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE 4 AM. FROPA              
WILL BE VERY ABRUPT WITH A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A              
QUICK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST.                       
TEMPERATURES JUST PRIOR TO FROPA WILL BE WARMER THAN THE HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                           
A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING                
NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE EAST                
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. SOME POST-FRONTAL SPRINKLES               
OR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF              
NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECIP AREA SHOULD BE ABOVE                    
FREEZING SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.                        
HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD               
SEE BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY.                                        
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND                
TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN               
WEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH. THE NORTHWEST         
ZONES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SO              
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM                  
ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SEEM TO                  
AGREE THAT THIS BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BEGINNING            
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. BOTH THE                 
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS             
THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE 84 HOUR NAM SOLUTION SHOWS THE                
FRONT LAYING UP NORTH OF THE RIVER. WILL FOLLOW THIS GENERAL                    
SCENARIO BUT WILL STILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS AS THE EXCESSIVE                   
WARMUP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEARS UNREALISTIC.                                 
THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE NEXT               
WEEKEND. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN ON DAY 7 BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON                    
INTRODUCING ANY POPS.                                                           
79                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  31  35  32  40  40 /  10  20  30  30  20                  
WACO, TX              36  42  33  44  44 /  10  20  30  30  20                  
PARIS, TX             29  38  31  36  33 /  20  20  30  40  20                  
DENTON, TX            28  33  31  39  36 /  10  20  20  30  20                  
MCKINNEY, TX          30  36  31  38  37 /  20  20  30  40  20                  
DALLAS, TX            32  37  33  40  40 /  20  20  30  30  20                  
TERRELL, TX           34  40  33  39  39 /  20  20  30  40  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         38  42  34  40  40 /  20  20  30  30  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            36  44  34  47  46 /  10  20  30  30  20                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
609 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH THE KCDS AND KLBB                 
TERMINALS. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE WILL                  
USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...INCLUDING THE                   
ONSET OF SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.                   
WHILE IT REMAINS LIKELY THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY                      
DEVELOP...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT TIMING FOR LOWER CEILINGS.               
CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST BKN CEILINGS MAY REMAINAT/ABOVE 4KFT THROUGH              
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 16/00Z. LOWERING CIGS WILL BE MORE LIKELY              
THEREAFTER.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
RUC APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE               
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL THUS TREND TOWARD ITS                      
SOLUTION. THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO MY NORTHERN ZONES AT                   
AROUND 4 PM TO LUBBOCK BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM AND THROUGH THE SOUTH                 
PLAINS BY 8 PM. STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY TEXAS                  
MESONET SITES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS WILL                   
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL LET                
WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED               
TO INCREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE                   
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND THUS CANNOT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT                 
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A FEW FLURRIES...                 
WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS.                   
ARCTIC AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE                    
REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR                
HIGHS.                                                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO BE WHAT TEMPERATURES               
WILL DO. CONTINUED PREV FCST WHICH KEEPS COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS               
THE NORTHEAST AND AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN                
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S                   
STARTING TUESDAY. SHOULD FINALLY SEE THE AIRMASS MODIFY BY THURSDAY             
THANKS TO CONTINUED SWLY FLOW FINALLY HELPING TO MIX OUT THE COLD               
AIR...AND TEMPS AREA WIDE SHOULD FINALLY GET BACK INTO THE MID TO               
UPPER 50S BY FRI.                                                               
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER DUMP OF COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVING                  
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMINGS HAVE SWITCHED. THE                 
GFS IS NOW THE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES                 
WILL ONCE AGAIN GO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO               
THE WEEKEND. CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DRY                  
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                                                             
JORDAN                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        17  29  19  51  23 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
TULIA         16  28  17  40  24 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     18  29  18  44  25 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     22  32  21  53  29 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       22  30  20  49  28 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   25  35  23  55  37 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    25  32  22  53  33 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     19  25  17  35  24 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
SPUR          24  29  18  42  29 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     24  28  17  42  31 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
20/99/99                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
RUC APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE               
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL THUS TREND TOWARD ITS                      
SOLUTION. THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO MY NORTHERN ZONES AT                   
AROUND 4 PM TO LUBBOCK BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM AND THROUGH THE SOUTH                 
PLAINS BY 8 PM. STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY TEXAS                  
MESONET SITES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS WILL                   
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL LET                
WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED               
TO INCREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE                   
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND THUS CANNOT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT                 
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A FEW FLURRIES...                 
WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS.                   
ARCTIC AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE                    
REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR                
HIGHS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO BE WHAT TEMPERATURES               
WILL DO. CONTINUED PREV FCST WHICH KEEPS COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS               
THE NORTHEAST AND AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN                
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S                   
STARTING TUESDAY. SHOULD FINALLY SEE THE AIRMASS MODIFY BY THURSDAY             
THANKS TO CONTINUED SWLY FLOW FINALLY HELPING TO MIX OUT THE COLD               
AIR...AND TEMPS AREA WIDE SHOULD FINALLY GET BACK INTO THE MID TO               
UPPER 50S BY FRI.                                                               
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER DUMP OF COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVING                  
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMINGS HAVE SWITCHED. THE                 
GFS IS NOW THE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES                 
WILL ONCE AGAIN GO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO               
THE WEEKEND. CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DRY                  
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                                                             
JORDAN                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        17  29  19  51  23 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
TULIA         16  28  17  40  24 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     18  29  18  44  25 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     22  32  21  53  29 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       22  30  20  49  28 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   25  35  23  55  37 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    25  32  22  53  33 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     19  25  17  35  24 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
SPUR          24  29  18  42  29 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     24  28  17  42  31 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                         
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027-033>035-039-040.                                        
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES: TXZ021>024-028>030-036-041-042.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
232 AM PST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING                      
SNOW...BITING NORTH WINDS...AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND              
NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW AND DANGEROUSLY COLD                 
WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH                 
SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN YEARS.                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL FEEL THE IMPACT OF THE                        
VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE              
REGION. CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE HAS SLIPPED                  
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IS NEAR WENATCHEE...WHERE WINDS AND                    
PRECIPITATION ARE LIGHT. THE LOW IS SLOWLY FILLING AND WILL TAKE                
A SSE PATH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DEPICTED BY THE 6Z RUC AND NAM.                 
EACH MODEL IS PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE               
MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY IS DUE TO THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT                
WHICH WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTH AND OOZING SOME FRIGID AIR INTO THE                
NORTHERN VALLEYS TODAY. CURRENTLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE                
MILD...IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...AS THE FORECAST AREA WAS                   
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THESE READINGS WILL               
MOST LIKELY BE THE LOWS FOR THE NIGHT...AND THE HIGHS FOR                       
SATURDAY. ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION...ANTICIPATE                   
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST                
WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 KTS. RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW SNOW                    
RETURNS REDEVELOPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN                        
WASHINGTON AND ANTICIPATE MORE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOW                      
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW TO              
WATER RATIOS WILL JUMP FROM AROUND 12 TO 1 TO ALMOST 20 TO 1...MAKING           
THE SNOW DRY AND FLUFFY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED WINDS WILL             
LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN MOST EXPOSED LOCATIONS.                    
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST               
ZONES BY THIS EVENING...KEEPING NORTH TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE                  
REGION. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS                     
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -20C UNDER                
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND THE                      
PERSISTENT WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO              
-20 DEGREES INTO THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT                 
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH MORE STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS                      
PENETRATING THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLD                 
FIRM INTO SUNDAY DESPITE THE FORCE OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW ROLLING               
DOWN THE WA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW                   
ALOFT...YET THE STABLE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WEDGE WILL REMAIN UN-                 
BUDGED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND                   
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.                    
ANTICIPATE SOME RATHER LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE               
RECOVERY ANTICIPATED. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL                    
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY. /RFOX.                          
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AN AREA OF LOW                    
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE                    
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST KEEPING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR                      
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE BLUE MTS WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM THE             
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.                 
MODEL QPF IS LIGHT BUT A GENEROUS SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO OF 20 TO 1               
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SUNDAY                 
NIGHT IN BLUE MTS BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                  
THE BIG STORY IS THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK            
AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. AS THE LOW DROPS            
SOUTH...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTHEAST              
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL DRAG VERY COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.            
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST VALLEYS              
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE DEEP FREEZE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH                 
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY.               
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS TO                 
CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE                   
WORKWEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT BY WEDNESDAY               
BUT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO            
PERSIST.                                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE              
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS            
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS SNOW TO LIQUID             
RATIOS WILL REMAIN HIGH. /KELCH                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES ATTM.                 
MAIN AREA OF SNOW REMAINS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND               
NORTH IDAHO. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL LINGER NEAR KMWH UNTIL                  
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE AREA TOWARD 12Z. AREAS OF SNOW               
WILL INCREASE ACROSS KEAT AND KOMK...SPREADING TO KMWH BY 12Z SAT.              
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO               
HEAVY SNOW IN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SAT INTO KGEG-KCOE-                
KPUW...AND FINALLY REACHING KLWS AFTER 18Z. ANTICIPATE LIFR                     
CONDITION WITH SNOW AND BLSN WITH NE WINDS 15G25KTS. CIGS WILL                  
IMPROVE ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                        
EVENING...AS SKIES CLEAR AND BLSN DECREASES AFTER 0Z SUN. /RFOX.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        29   1   6  -8   2 -13 / 100  50  30  20  10  10                 
COEUR D`ALENE  30   1   8  -9   2 -11 / 100  50  30  20  10  10                 
PULLMAN        33  10  13  -1   7  -3 / 100  70  50  30  20  10                 
LEWISTON       36  15  20   6  15   3 /  80  90  50  30  20  10                 
COLVILLE       26   0  10  -9   3 -10 /  90  20  20  10  10  10                 
SANDPOINT      23  -3   6 -11   0 -12 /  80  40  20  10  10  10                 
KELLOGG        25  -1   5  -9   0 -10 / 100  70  40  20  20  10                 
MOSES LAKE     28   8  12  -3   9  -6 /  90  50  40  20  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      26   8  14  -3  10  -3 /  80  50  40  20  10  10                 
OMAK           23   8  12  -6   7  -9 / 100  30  30  20  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN             
     PANHANDLE.                                                                 
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR IDAHO PALOUSE.             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COEUR D`ALENE               
     AREA.                                                                      
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR LEWIS AND               
     SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES...LEWISTON AREA.                               
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE           
     MOUNTAINS.                                                                 
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST            
     MOUNTAINS...OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS...OKANOGAN VALLEY.                          
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST BLUE             
     MOUNTAINS.                                                                 
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD             
     AND ASOTIN COUNTIES...WASHINGTON PALOUSE.                                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR SPOKANE AREA...             
     UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.                                                      
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR MOSES             
     LAKE AREA.                                                                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR                   
     WENATCHEE AREA.                                                            
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR EAST SLOPES                 
     NORTHERN CASCADES.                                                         
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WATERVILLE           
     PLATEAU.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
402 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
...DENSE SEA FOG LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...               
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO                       
TUESDAY...STALLING OUT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT               
WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY                
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE COASTAL TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED WITH             
ONLY A SUBTLE INVERTED KINK NOTED IN THE ISOBARS JUST INLAND FROM               
THE COAST. HOWEVER ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION              
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS MUCH              
OF THE REGION WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 7000 FT. THE KCLX RADAR            
IS EVEN PICKING UP ON SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE                  
ATLANTIC CENTERED ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUNTING ISLAND. ONE OR               
TWO OF THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN OSSABAW SOUND AND               
SULLIVANS ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN             
DRY THROUGH SUNRISE.                                                            
THE WEAK INSITU WEDGE THAT IS PLACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WILL                    
STEADILY DECAY THIS MORNING AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SHIFTS               
EVEN FARTHER OUT IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC. MODELS SUGGEST SOME WEAK                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290-300K SURFACES WILL PERSIST THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB SHOULD                  
KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED. WILL KEEP                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT                    
CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS                 
LOW GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE MOISTURE PARAMETERS THAT ARE IN               
PLACE.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY                    
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S              
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS LOWER TO                
MID 50 WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE BEACHES CONSIDERABLY                    
COOLER. SHOULD SEE PATCHES OF DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE                  
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS OVER THE ATLANTIC RISE INTO THE              
MID 60S. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD IMPACT THE BEACHES LATE IN THE                  
AFTERNOON IN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                         
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE SEA FOG TO              
MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE               
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.               
SATELLITE DERIVED AND OBSERVED SEA SURFACE DATA INDICATE WATER                  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE SURF ZONE OUT TO              
AT LEAST 20 NM AND AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THESE                
COOL NEARSHORE WATERS EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO MATERIALIZE. ANY             
FOG BANKS THAT FORM SHOULD ADVECT SLOWLY INLAND THIS EVENING UNDER              
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ITS A TOUCH CALL ON EXACTLY HOW            
FAR INLAND THE FOG WILL MIGRATE BUT 03Z SREF VISIBILITY GUIDANCE AS             
WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS MOS PACKAGES ALL SUGGEST THE FOG WILL                   
PENETRATE INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WILL KEEP                
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST INLAND BUT INTRODUCE DENSE FOG WORDING             
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT VISIBILITIES              
TO DROP TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE               
DENSE FOG WORDING MUCH FARTHER INLAND PENDING 12Z AND 18Z MODEL                 
TRENDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF            
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE RELAYED IN THE MORNING               
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                                      
ANY LINGERING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN HALF OF               
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH INTO               
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT               
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER               
50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 AT THE BEACHES.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE COLD FRONT                      
BECOMING STALLED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON                  
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RIDGES NORTHWARD. LACKING ANY                  
STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS...RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY ON TUESDAY.                  
HAVE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MARINE               
ZONES AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...CLOSEST TO THE                     
SAGGING FRONT AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WATERS.                                
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT                     
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SURFACE                 
FLOW AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SREF VISIBILITIES CONFIRM A                 
DIURNAL PATTERN OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND AND SEA AT NIGHT...THEN            
LINGERING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE                
MAINTAINED FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION                
OF DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                        
THE LINGERING FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE                
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                 
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE REGION WILL THUS REMAIN WITHIN               
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE                 
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID              
TO UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                            
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE                         
WEEKEND...ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM               
THE NORTHWEST. GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT RIDGING COULD BE                   
SUFFICIENT TO STALL THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AGAIN. HOWEVER BOTH                  
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS INDICATE A STRONGER SECOND FRONT PUSHING               
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT                 
COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HAVE               
THUS INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A COOLING TREND SATURDAY AND              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH               
KCHS AND KSAV. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF                  
CLEARING THAT OCCURS AROUND THE KSAV TERMINAL JUST PRIOR TO                     
SUNRISE. SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD                
CANOPY ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC...SO THE                
RUC MAY VERY WELL BE ON TO SOMETHING. FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE                 
UNDER THE CURRENT LIGHT WIND REGIME SHOULD THIS CLEARING                        
MATERIALIZE. WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUND FOR 4SM BR BETWEEN 10-13Z            
AT KSAV TO HELP COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY CLEARING THAT DOES OCCUR            
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPING TO FILL THE               
CLOUD DECKS BACK IN LATER THIS MORNING.                                         
STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT             
AS AREAS OF SEA FOG MOVE INLAND. WILL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT                        
DETERIORATION AT KSAV WHERE MODELS HIT LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH                
06Z BUT LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE INTRODUCED TO BOTH               
TAF SITES WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.                                               
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR OR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY                   
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF SEA FOG AND/OR              
RADIATION FOG DEVELOPS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS HAVE FINALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA               
NOW THAT THE COASTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND AND DISSIPATED.                    
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY                
VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. REGIONAL BUOYS INDICATE                  
EASTERLY SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS ARE KEEPING SEAS                    
FAIRLY ENHANCED WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 4-6 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE               
WATERS AND 5-7 FT ACROSS THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG. WW4 KEEPS THESE              
SWELLS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL                
BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL BUT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.                                
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL              
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE SEA FOG. LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ADVECTING               
OVER WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SUGGEST THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS RATHER HIGH. COULD SEE               
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS AS EARLY AS THIS                  
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT              
AS THE FOG BANK SPREADS INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MENTION OF AREAS OF              
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4NM OR LESS. A MARINE DENSE FOG                   
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS INCLUDING               
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR TONIGHT.                                              
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE LIGHT                   
TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK...AS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK              
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE OUTER                  
GEORGIA WATERS WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH                        
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEA FOG. LIGHT SURFACE              
FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE COOL WATERS WILL CREATE AN                   
IDEAL FOG ENVIRONMENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL                     
DEVELOPMENT PATTERN...WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING               
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. FOG COULD                  
BECOME DENSE AND CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS. WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MENTION SEA FOG IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...AS                 
WELL AS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY...SETTING           
UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH                 
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW                
ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF               
MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH               
FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE OHOOPEE RIVER AT REIDSVILLE HAS SURPASSED ACTION STAGE AND IS               
ABOUT 1/2 FT BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE OF 11 FT. THE STAGE AT 215 AM WAS            
10.48 FT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RIVER FORECAST RECEIVED FROM               
THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER. DEPENDING ON TRENDS OVER THE               
NEXT FEW HOURS...WE MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO ISSUE A RIVER FLOOD                   
WARNING. WILL COORDINATE WITH THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER               
LATER THIS MORNING.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
TIDES ARE RUNNING VERY NEAR PREDICTED LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.                
THE GFS-BASED EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE DATA SUGGESTS TIDES WILL                
FALL JUST SHORT OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE              
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW NOTED ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA               
COAST SUSPECT THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING TIDE LEVELS NEAR                 
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD                
ADVISORY FROM 8 AM UNTIL NOON FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA                     
COASTAL ZONES. ATTM WE BELIEVE TIDES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY                 
THRESHOLDS ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST                  
     TODAY FOR SCZ048>051.                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST                
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352.                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST                    
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1233 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND                  
DISSIPATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST                 
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...STALL OUT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT                 
THEN LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR                      
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVER                 
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
COASTAL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING INLAND QUITE NICELY THIS EVENING                  
BASED ON SFC ANALYSIS. WINDS OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS INCLUDING                
FOLLY BEACH ARE NOW REPORTING E TO SE WINDS HOWEVER INLAND OBS                  
HAVE YET TO TURN. DEWPOINTS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT              
AS THE COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND. CLOUD               
COVER WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...                   
PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT FOG CONCERNS. HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS STILL                
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...                           
A POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL APPROACH                
THE APPALACHIANS MON WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES. THOUGH                
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT ON SHORT TERM MODEL PROGS...IT IS               
BARELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW-                
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLGT CHC POPS IN THE MORNING.              
THE CLOSING PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION ATMOSPHERIC                  
LIFT TO A PRE-FRONTAL NATURE BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE BETTER                    
COVERAGE W OF THE CHS CWFA. HAVE NUDGED UP POPS INTO LOW CHC                    
CATEGORY IN THE AFTN WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WARM               
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ITS STRONG HOLD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF              
THE FRONT...RAISING MAX TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY MON NIGHT              
THEN STALL BEFORE COMPLETELY CROSSING THE RANGE TUE. THE FRONT                  
WILL THEN BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS DEEP LAYERED                     
RIDGING FROM THE GOMEX BULGES N AND KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED WITH                
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE DEEP RIDGE TAPPING IN GULF MOISTURE              
DUE TO IT SW-NE FLOW ACRS THE AREA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                    
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH                      
PRE-FRONTAL LIFT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS                
COULD FORM AND DRIFT FROM TIME TO TIME SO HAVE MAINTAINED A 20/30               
POP SCHEME THROUGH TUE NIGHT. STARTING WED...THE FRONT WILL LIFT                
OFF TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEP THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE WARM              
BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DEEP RIDGE WILL SHIFT               
OFF TO THE E AND BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING ANOTHER                 
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ATTM...HAVE NOT GONE TOO HIGH WITH POPS BUT                
DID INTRODUCE SLGT CHC POPS TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FROPA.                     
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE                         
WORKWEEK...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE               
MID 50S. OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ANOTHER                
ROUND OF COOLER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT NOTHING TOO                 
DRASTIC SO HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.                  
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM TIME-FRAME WILL BE                      
NIGHTTIME FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WEAK LLVL FLOW AND INCREASING                  
LLVL MOISTURE. FOG LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...ESP NEAR THE                   
COAST...WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER SOIL                 
TEMPS FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS                 
OF FOG WORDING WITH A 1SM QUALIFIER BUT WILL ALSO HAVE MENTION OF               
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. THERE IS A CHC                 
THIS COULD ALSO PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW                 
THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS GO.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH               
KCHS AND KSAV. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF                  
CLEARING THAT OCCURS AROUND THE KSAV TERMINAL JUST PRIOR TO                     
SUNRISE. SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD                
CANOPY ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC...SO THE                
RUC MAY VERY WELL BE ON TO SOMETHING. FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE                 
UNDER THE CURRENT LIGHT WIND REGIME SHOULD THIS CLEARING MATERIALIZE.           
WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUND FOR 4SM BR BETWEEN 10-13Z AT KSAV TO              
HELP COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY CLEARING THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE               
SHORT LIVED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPING TO FILL THE CLOUD                 
DECKS BACK IN LATER THIS MORNING.                                               
STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT             
AS AREAS OF SEA FOG MOVE INLAND. WILL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT                        
DETERIORATION AT KSAV WHERE MODELS HIT LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH                
06Z BUT LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE INTRODUCED TO BOTH               
TAF SITES WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.                                               
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR OR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY                   
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF SEA FOG AND/OR              
RADIATION FOG DEVELOPS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS HAVE TURNED E-SE AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE                 
COASTAL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS HAVE                     
INCREASED A BIT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS...INCLUDING BUOY 41004 AND                
M2R6. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING HIGHER SEAS INTO INLAND                            
PORTIONS...THUS THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL REGIONS STILL                   
LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                                 
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE                 
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ATLC RIDGE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A             
BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS PREVAILS OVER THE GULF               
AND SW ATLC. WHILE THE RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT DOES WEAKEN               
SOME THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...THE BLOCKING               
PATTERN WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY COLD             
FRONT FROM PENETRATING THIS FAR SE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE END             
RESULT WILL BE FOR A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF THE WARMER                
MONTHS OF THE YEAR...SE TO SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH TO             
SW THEREAFTER. WIND FIELDS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15 KT FOR MUCH OF               
MONDAY...THEN MAINLY 10 OR 10-15 KT AND LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF               
THE WEEK.                                                                       
SEAS WILL TRANSITION FROM A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WAVE             
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TO MORE OF A SWELL WAVE MONDAY NIGHT                   
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE            
FETCH THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED...ENOUGH SO THAT SCA/S WILL                  
CONTINUE FOR AMZ350-352-354 FOR SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OUT NEAR 20 NM OFF             
THE COAST INTO TUESDAY...AND ALSO SCA FOR AMZ374 WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT            
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.                                                           
SEA FOG...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG FORMATION MONDAY              
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT...WARM AND               
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS              
OF THE ATLC. AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S               
DURING THIS TIME IT WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THAT ARE IN THE MID                 
AND UPPER 50S...LEADING TO THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF DENSE SEA FOG.             
AS A RESULT...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE              
MARINE AREA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK.                      
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
TIDE LEVELS HAVE BEEN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS              
SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS IN SPITE OF THE OFFSHORE FETCH              
MUCH OF THIS TIME. IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSING INLAND TONIGHT A               
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN TIME FOR THE HIGH TIDE            
CYCLE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 930 TO 1030 AM. THE GFS EXTRATROPICAL               
WATER LEVEL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT TIDE LEVELS WILL FALL SHORT OF               
ANY SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THAT HIGH TIDE...BUT                 
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAREFULLY              
MONITORED. DEPARTURES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING NEED TO REACH                
ONLY 0.5 FT MLLW ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AT CHARLESTON MONDAY MORNING            
/WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE/. BUT DEPARTURES NEED TO BE 0.8 FT MLLW ABOVE             
AT FORT PULASKI/SAVANNAH...WHICH AT PRESENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.             
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1258 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MINOR CHANGES TO PREV TAFS. SPED UP FROPA A COUPLE HOURS BASED ON               
EXTRAPOLATION OF FRONT ACROSS NRN IL AND 00Z NAM GUIDANCE. RAIN                 
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOWERING FLYING CONDITIONS GENERALLY               
INTO MVFR RANGE. OBS UPSTREAM ALSO SUGGEST THAT A SHORT PD OF                   
-FZRASNPL IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF TO                 
FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH            
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVE AS MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH              
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN ATTM IS PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WHICH OCCURRED               
BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER ERN IA/NW IL THIS EVE. FORCING FOR POST                   
FRONTAL PRECIP APPEARS TO BE A WK SHRTWV OVER NE FROM NEB/WRN IA                
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO WI OVERNIGHT PROVIDING LESS POST              
FRONTAL PRECIP IN OUR AREA. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY 18Z NAM AND              
21Z RUC WHICH BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS HEAVY POST FRONTAL PRECIP                  
WILL NOT TRANSLATE EWD INTO OUR CWA. STILL GIVEN ONGOING ZR                     
OCCURRING BEHIND FRONT...FELT IT WAS WORTH ADDING A MENTION IN THE              
ZFP/GRIDS FOR WRN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS WINDS WHICH              
HAVE BEEN BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT SO FAR. TEMPS                 
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER MIXING OVERNIGHT             
THAN OCCURRED TODAY. FROPA SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE MIXING AND WITH              
WOLCOTT PROFILER SHOWING 65KT IN LOWEST GATE AT 01Z AM RELUCTANT                
TO DROP ADVISORY AND RATHER OPTED TO CONT IT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS                 
MADE TO TEMPS FOR CONTD SLOW RISING TREND UNTIL FROPA WHEN IN A PD              
OF 3-6HRS TEMPS SHOULD CRASH FROM U40S/L50S TO M-U20S.                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                   
STRONG COLD FRONT...NOW EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTH                  
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND                   
SHOULD REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY               
MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH              
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RE- DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF              
THE FRONT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE EXPECTED FROM THE                      
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW                     
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY LOWER                 
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.                                                       
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE WILL BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH THIS             
FORECAST. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A                  
TRANSITION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. RAIN HAS BRIEFLY CHANGED             
TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. THIS TREND              
SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...            
WE SHOULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO WINDOW WHERE THERE IS SOME FREEZING                
RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. AT THIS             
TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION            
SO NO ADVISORY IS NEEDED. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR                    
LATER TRENDS.                                                                   
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN A LITTLE            
BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN BACK UP AS THE FRONT                 
APPROACHES. WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. ALSO...THERE COULD            
BE A TIME OF BLOWING SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE GRADIENT                  
RELAXES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                         
WINTRY MIX LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...                                   
AT THIS POINT NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO LONG TERM GRIDS WITH ACTIVE               
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON               
THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF THE LONG TERM. FAST MOVING WAVE WILL                
MOVE ARRIVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP LIKELY RAPIDLY               
INCREASING TOWARDS EVENING. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT AND EXPANDED                
TO COVER THIS TREND. HAVE LEFT MIX BAG IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT               
INTO EARLY WEDS. MODELS ALL SHOW A TONGUE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING              
IN TO AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SE QUARTER TO THIRD.                
SOME TRENDS OF MODELS SUGGESTING THAT WARM AIR MAY SNEAK FURTHER                
NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE 9Z SREF MEMBERS HAS TRANSITION AREA                  
FROM PERU TO WARSAW TO SOUTH OF HILLSDALE WHERE A BIT OF                        
EVERYTHING MAY OCCUR...MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR              
HEADLINE SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SE. AT THIS POINT ENOUGH                
GOING ON PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW THIS               
EVOLVES SO WILL MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE HWO TO INCREASE AWARENESS              
A BIT MORE.                                                                     
AFTER THIS PERIOD THINGS BECOME EVEN MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH NEXT                
WAVE TO ARRIVE LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS AND THURS NGT. MODELS VARY              
EVEN MORE THAN WITH FIRST MENTIONED SYSTEM WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING               
FROM SNOW FOR THE AREA...TO A MIXED BAG TO TEMPS WELL ABOVE                     
FREEZING AND RAIN FOR THE AREA. AS A RESULT NO CHANGES MADE IN                  
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM.                                                         
YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST MAY ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD                   
RESULTING A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT                    
PRECIP. WITH THE PATTERN SO CHAOTIC RIGHT NOW...FELT HOLDING A                  
DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WAS IN ORDER.                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR                  
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.                 
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-             
     005-015-016-024-025.                                                       
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...REHBEIN                                                            
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
AVIATION...TAYLOR/SKIPPER                                                       
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
320 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
TEMP AND WIND TRENDS MAIN CONCERN TODAY.  LATEST RUC/NAM RAW TEMPS              
ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO REALITY THIS MORNING WHILE GFS IS TOO WARM.                 
HAVE FOLLOWED RUC/NAM GIVING LITTLE REBOUND TODAY...AND HIGHS ONLY              
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.  NAM MOS PLUS A FEW                  
DEGREES.  07Z SFC ANLYS STILL SHOWS ANOTHER ISALLOBARIC MAX PASSAGE             
THROUGH IA SO EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN CONSISTENT EARLY THIS                      
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY.  HOWEVER WITH OUR                 
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE IT WILL KEEP US IN WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALL              
BUT SERN SECTIONS TIL NOON...AND NRN THREE TIERS TIL MIDNIGHT.  THUS            
WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE...BUT EXTEND NRN ONE TIL 06Z.              
VSBYS HAVE BEEN A MILE OR LESS AT KEST THIS MORNING...AND OFTEN DOWN            
TO 1/4SM IN BLOWING SNOW...SO HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WX ADVY FOR                  
BLOWING SNOW TIL 8AM.  DOT ROAD REPORTS STILL SHOW LIMITED VSBYS IN             
THESE AREAS.                                                                    
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS AS WELL AS MANUAL OBSERVATIONS WOULD                 
INDICATE THAT AWOS/ASOS CIGS ARE TOO BULLISH ACROSS IA THIS MORNING             
LIKELY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND ELEVATED ICE CRYSTALS.  THUS WILL GO             
WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN NEPHANLYS WOULD EXPECT.                                 
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER GIVES WAY TO RATHER STRONG OVERRUNNING            
EVENT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H850 FLOW LIFTING OVER A THE                  
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR TUESDAY FOR A BROAD UPGLIDE...WITH H300            
JET MAX OF 150 KTS ALSO AIDING BROAD AREA OF LIFT DURING THE DAYTIME            
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT FAIRLY UNIFORM CONDITIONS WILL             
TRANSLATE FROM SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH TO EASTERN SECTIONS BY EVENING.             
QUESTION OF THE DAY IS NOT SO MUCH THE SNOW:WATER RATIO...BUT THE               
AMOUNT OF QPF IS THE KEY. SO FAR THE EURO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH              
PAST 4 OR MORE RUNS WITH NEARLY .40 TO .45 OF QPF. GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN            
SLIGHTLY LESS RELIABLE FROM RUN TO RUN BUT CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT              
LESS IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE 00Z UKMET IS NEARER .30 TOTAL AS                
WELL. IN ANY EVENT IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY HIGH END ADVISORY FOR THE             
SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF                   
BREACHING 6+ INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF OF HIGHWAY 30. TIME                
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE               
FOR THE EVENT WHICH SHOULD LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS ONCE IT BEGINS.              
THIS TRACKS FAIRLY WELL WITH ABOUT 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.              
AFTER SOME DELIBERATION HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR TUESDAY             
FROM 12Z THROUGH 06Z WED. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER WEST PRIOR              
TO 21Z BUT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS EAST. THOUGH                  
BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM SNOWFALL OF EVEN 4 TO 5 INCHES               
DURING THE DAY WILL CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS FOR AREA TRAVELERS. NEWEST              
06Z NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z RUN...BUT TRENDS REMAIN                       
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME. THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THE                
EVENING HOURS AND SOME CLEARING EXPECTED BY MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED               
MINS WEST SECTIONS BASED ON THIS THINKING. QUICK BREAK FOR WED                  
BEFORE THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION FOR LATER ON                   
THURSDAY. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE                
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR GETTING INTO THE SYSTEM. GFS MUCH WARMER THAN THE            
EURO...AND STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS MUCH DIFFERENT...FARTHER NORTH            
AND TRACK IS ALSO DIFFERENT. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO GOING            
PTYPE AND POP GIVEN CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. THE EURO MAINTAINS A MORE              
SOUTHERLY TRACK AND IS ALSO A TOUCH SLOWER. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER               
SYSTEM BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR             
ON THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS STILL AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN            
IN THIS REGARD.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...15/06Z                                                              
MAIN SHORT WAVES HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME -SHSN              
ACTIVTY AROUND...BUT NOTHING REAL SIG.  MVFR CIGS THRU MUCH OF THE              
NGT WILL IMPV GRDLY FRM THE SW AS UPR SYS LIFTS OUT.  GRAD WEAKENING            
MON AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA WITH DECENT VFR CONDS CONT INTO               
MON NGT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
...WIND CHILL ADVY TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY /-18Z MONDAY/                  
SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-                 
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-                
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA                  
ADAIR-ADAMS-CLARKE-DECATUR-LUCAS-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.                         
...WIND CHILL ADVY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING /-06Z TUESDAY/               
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO                           
GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER.                        
...WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING /12Z              
TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...FOR GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-               
TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON            
-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR           
-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BSS                                                                
LONG TERM...REV                                                                 
AVIATION...MS DEC 08/BSS                                                        
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1132 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                   
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24                 
HOURS.                                                                          
EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE AREA.                 
WHILE NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS               
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. THEY WILL THEN SLOWLY              
VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON                
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE MVFR WITH KRSL            
AND KSLN REMAINING CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. A MID                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AS ISENTROPIC                
LIFT INCREASES.                                                                 
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATING TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN AND TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR               
CENTRAL KS.                                                                     
POCKETS OF SLEET HAVE MOVED OFF INTO MO WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT               
SNOW/FLURRIES LEFT OVER SE KS. UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY             
COLD WITH WINDS STAYING UP OVER THE AREA. AFTER UPDATING TEMPS AND              
WINDS...WIND CHILL GRIDS NOW HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF -15 TEMPS OVER               
CENTRAL KS. THEREFORE WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING               
OFFICES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY THROUGH 14Z.                                      
LAWSON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES OVER SE KS AND TO DECREASE OVER              
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.                                                   
PRECIP HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SE KS. WE HAVE              
RECIEVED A COUPLE REPORTS OF THUNDER SLEET OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH              
SOME SNOW LIKELY MIXED IN. PROFILERS INDICATE THAT THE 850MB FRONT              
IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SE KS WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION ALSO             
INDICATED AT 700MB. IN ADDITION WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING               
SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS              
ACTIVITY IS ON THE MOVE AND SHOULD EXIT SE KS BY AROUND 9 PM. TOOK              
OUT POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF 135 AND JUST WENT WITH SOME            
FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z.                                                           
LAWSON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE FIRE FEW               
HOURS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS.                                        
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW...MIXING BRIEFLY WITH LIGHT                      
SLEET...AFFECTING LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. THIS             
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND BE OUT OF SE KS BY                
AROUND 03Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE WITH ABOVE MVFR                 
HEIGHTS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KCNU WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS            
WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND 03Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY                   
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH.                    
LAWSON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE WIND                    
CHILL VALUES TONIGHT AND SNOW CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY              
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE FREEZING                
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY               
MORNING.                                                                        
TONIGHT:                                                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY             
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. LATEST PROFILERS/RUC WERE ALSO                 
SHOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND 700MB NEAR THAT AREA. LATEST RADAR             
LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING SOME NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING                
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE                    
INSTABILITY BANDS OF SNOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES               
ABOVE 750MB. THESE BANDS APPEARS TO FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL               
LIMIT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED                  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF INCH OR LESS THIS EVENING.                   
MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR             
POURING INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A             
COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES                
COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND               
CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT IN              
RUSSELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING              
FORECAST OFFICES...WE HAVE ELECTED NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL                       
ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED CONSIDER THIS DEPENDING              
IF TEMPERATURES DROP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                           
MONDAY:                                                                         
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.             
HOWEVER...THE POLAR AIR MASS WILL NOT BUDGE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO            
GET OUT OF THE TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                           
ANOTHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THROUGH                 
NORTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD            
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT            
BETWEEN 290-295K MAINLY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE                    
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS                
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS                 
EXPECTED IN RUSSELL...LINCOLN AND SALINE COUNTIES.                              
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT:                                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH            
WILL PROVIDE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN               
QUESTION WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. RIGHT            
NOW WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ON THE TIMING OF            
THE FEATURES MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF             
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A WAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.               
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL JUST HELP SHOVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A SHOT OF                    
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE GFS              
ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/UKMET ARE PICKING UP ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT              
OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING              
ON PLACING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.              
THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT IF THIS PANS OUT.                
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...PLACES THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH                  
BISECTING CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE FAVORING THE                    
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WHILE                    
CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS TIMEFRAME WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH LATER RUNS.                                             
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                  
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A 1042MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER ALASKA             
WHICH MAY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS            
A RESULT...MORE COLD WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND.                    
COX                                                                             
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH TO                 
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
AREA INTO THE EVENING. A NARROW AND TRANSIENT BAND OF LIFT IS                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                 
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO                 
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW              
OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE               
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.                                     
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT     6  19  13  26 /  10  10  20  20                                
HUTCHINSON       5  18  11  24 /  10  10  30  20                                
NEWTON           6  17  13  24 /  10  10  30  30                                
ELDORADO         8  18  13  25 /  20  10  20  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  20  15  29 /  10  10  20  20                                
RUSSELL          0  15   6  20 /  10  10  50  50                                
GREAT BEND       4  16   9  23 /  10  10  40  20                                
SALINA           2  16   8  22 /  10  10  40  50                                
MCPHERSON        5  17  10  24 /  10  10  30  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     12  24  15  30 /  70  10  20  30                                
CHANUTE         10  20  14  27 /  60  10  20  40                                
IOLA             9  19  13  26 /  60  10  20  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    11  22  14  29 /  70  10  20  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
412 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER ON WIND CHILLS THE NEXT 18                       
HOURS...THOUGH ATTENTION IN FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE TURNING TO                    
TUES/TUES EVE SNOW EVENT AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE ONE FOR THU.                 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS 993MB LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO                
CENTRAL ONTARIO. NEARLY 50MB DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND                
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXPANDING OVER THE CTRL PLAINS.                     
RESULTANT WINDS CONTINUE SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING                 
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH                 
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS TO THE                 
START THE DAY IN WEST CTRL MN. WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 25                 
AND 40 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE                 
EARLY MORNING. OVERALL...AIR TEMPS ARE 35 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER                  
ACROSS THE AREA THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO! WHAT A CLASSIC EARLY                    
WINTER CYCLONE.                                                                 
CURRENT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE NEARLY THE SAME IN SPEED AND GUST                 
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AREA AND UPSTREAM WIND PROFILERS                       
MEASURING 925MB WINDS AT 30 KTS AND RUC SOUNDINGS DIAGNOSING                    
CONTINUED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE WINDS WILL VERY                    
GRADUALLY EASE THIS AFTN AND WITH THAT THE BLOWING SNOW SHOULD                  
TOO. 1000-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO PROGGED TO ACCORDINGLY                  
DIMINISH GRADUALLY. SO TEMPS ARE THOUGHT TO BE NEARLY STEADY THIS               
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLIMBING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES THIS AFTN. WIND               
CHILLS THIS ENTIRE TIME THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA               
WITH WARNING CRITERIA CONTINUING ACROSS THE WEST. SO HAVE EXTENDED              
HEADLINES. WRN WI LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH WIND INTO THIS EVE UNDER              
DEPARTING MSLP GRADIENT SO HAVE ADVISORY GOING TO MIDNIGHT IN THAT              
AREA.                                                                           
AIR TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB                
MAGNITUDE MOVES OVER THE SRN CWA. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS IN                    
MN...CLEAR SKIES CWA WIDE...AND FRESH SNOW COVER IN MANY PLACES                 
WILL RESULT IN AN IDEAL SETUP FOR PLUNGING TEMPS BETWEEN 7 PM AND               
9 PM. NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
MN CWA BY 9 PM. FRESH SNOW COVER EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERAL DEGREE              
IMPACT. RECENT LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL RESEARCH WITH A NIGHT AFTER A               
FRESH SNOW AND THESE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS WOULD INDICATE                 
NEAR -18F AT MSP. HAVE GONE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT WITH SOME                  
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS EXPECTED VERY LATE. AREAS OF WEST CTRL MN WITH              
DEEP FRESH SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO -23 TO -28. RECORD LOW MIN              
TEMP AT ST CLOUD FOR TUES MORNING IS -21 IN 1963 WHICH WILL BE IN               
GREAT JEOPARDY.                                                                 
ON THE IMMEDIATE HEALS OF THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL COME A POTENT MID-              
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTHEAST WITHIN THE POWERFUL STATIONARY                
UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR SOUTH ON TUES AND TUES NIGHT. VORT                       
ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG AND FOCUSED                
AHEAD OF THIS. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE POTENT                  
WITH THIS...BUT BOTH THESE...THE 00Z GFS...AND 21Z SREF FAVOR AT                
LEAST SRN MN TO WRN WI TO BE UNDER A CORRIDOR OF SNOW DURING TUES               
AFTN AND EVE. WITH THE SNOW FALLING INTO A VERY COLD AIR                        
MASS...RATIOS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 17:1 IF NOT CONSIDERABLY                
HIGHER. FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES RIGHT NOW WOULD               
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AS TIME APPROACHES AND THE IMMEDIATE WIND                   
CHILL CONCERNS END. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS                   
FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR STATIONARY BANDING MAY ENTER THE CWA AND                 
INCREASE THOSE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALBERT LEA...TO RED WING...TO              
EAU CLAIRE. ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORY AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE                  
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES...BUT AT THIS TIME                   
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. ONE OF THOSE IS A WAVE ON THE POLAR JET TO                
OUR NORTH WHICH DOES MOVE IN DURING THE EVE. THE INFLUENCE THIS                 
HAS ON THE SRN SHORT WAVE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH DURING              
THE LATE AFTN AND EVE. HAVE FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW               
IN THE ENVELOPE OF MOST CONFIDENCE WHICH CONTINUES TO INCREASE.                 
AFTER THAT...A SYSTEM ON THU IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY                       
POTENTIALLY KEEPS OUR ONE SYSTEM-EVERY-36-HOUR PATTERN GOING                    
STRONG. THIS SYSTEM IS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE NOW CLOSED                 
LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS               
HANDLE THIS CONSISTENTLY THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN                    
DIVERGE MID-WEEK IN THE RESPONSIVE LEE-CYCLOGENESIS. 00Z GFS WAS                
AN OUTLIER...BRINGING A LOW ON A VERY INTERESTING PATH FAVORING                 
GOOD SNOW HERE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH               
BRINGING THE LOW INTO SRN IL AND GIVING US BASICALLY NOTHING.                   
ENSEMBLE LEANS TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AT                   
KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE THE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR                  
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BUT TOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GET A              
GOOD HANDLE ON THE GUIDANCE WITH THAT SYSTEM. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT               
THINGS AS IS WITH THE FORECAST DURING THU.                                      
OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH                   
ANOTHER COLD SHOT OF A POTENTIAL SIMILAR MAGNITUDE AS THIS                      
CURRENT ONE BECOMING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
VIGOROUS S/WV LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS NOW...WITH LIFR AND BRIEF            
+SN.  THIS SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN AREAS AFTER 08Z OR              
SO.  SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS ACROSS THE AREA...REMAINING            
MVFR IN CIGS/BLSN AT LEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THEN DRIER                   
ARCTIC AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST.  THIS                   
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH NWLY SFC WNDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 23Z.            
SKC/VFR BEFORE NEXT SHOT OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR TUE                   
AFTN.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR              
     ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-                     
     DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-                 
     KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-                    
     MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-                   
     RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-               
     SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW                        
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-               
     BENTON-BLUE EARTH-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-                
     GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-                    
     MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-                  
     SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.                            
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-                
     CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-POPE-                      
     REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-YELLOW                        
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR              
     BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST.                 
     CROIX.                                                                     
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-                 
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/DWE                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
351 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
...WINTER STORM WINDS DOWN WITH LIGHT SNOW...                                   
.....EXCESSIVE COLD EXPECTED THIS WEEK...                                       
......WIND CHILL ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                  
.DISCUSSION...SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO SRN ONTARIO WITH CWA LEFT                  
UNDER MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. A SECONDARY                   
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MID LVL TROF HAS EJECTED NORTHEAST THIS               
MORNING SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT/MDT SNOW FROM THE TWIN                 
PORTS INTO THE ARROWHEAD. IT APPEARS ONE MORE SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING              
ACROSS ERN SD INTO SW MN ACCORDING TO LATEST 11U/3.9U IMAGERY.                  
LATEST RUC80 FCST OF THIS FEATURE SWINGS IT ACROSS CWA BY 18Z.                  
WILL LET WSW CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH                  
GUSTY WINDS/BLOWING SNOW. AFTER WSW EXPIRES...WIND CHILL ADVISORY               
WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. WINDCHILL VALUES ALREADY AT              
30 TO 35 BELOW ACROSS MOST OF MN ZONES AND 15 TO 25 BELOW ACROSS                
WISC. MAIN STORY WILL BE COLD AIR AND WINDCHILLS THROUGH THE WEEK.              
MAY NEED TO UPGRADE WCA TO WIND CHILL WARNING TONIGHT ACROSS                    
RANGE/ARROWHEAD. MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM SO FAR WITH THIS                
OUTBREAK AND THIS TYPICALLY IS THE CASE. MET NUMBERS A BIT BETTER.              
SUSPECT CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT HOWEVER RADIATIONAL COOLING                 
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OPTIMAL. WINDS IN SFC/925 LAYER STILL BRISK                  
WITH LINGERING PRESS GRADIENT. ALSO...WITH LACK OF SHARP RIDGE                  
AXIS ALOFT MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS SNEAKING IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS.                 
REGARDLESS...STILL EXPECT TONIGH TO BE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS                    
SEASON SO FAR. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO REGION              
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA. GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON               
THIS SYSTEM WITH 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL EXPECTED.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MED RANGE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER MID WEEK...WITH GFS BRINGING A STRONG            
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRES INTO SRN WI ON THURS. GFS LACKS SUPPORT              
OF BOTH ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HOWEVER...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SOUTH INTO            
THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO WRN ONT.            
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTION...BACKING POPS TO THE               
LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THUR/THUR NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW BY FRI               
NIGHT INTO SAT AS FLOW BECOMES SWRLY AHEAD OF BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH            
EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW                
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL ARCTIC              
OUTBREAK BY THE WEEKEND.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING                          
DUE TO BLSN AND -SN...WHILE CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR                  
RANGE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND BACK THIS                        
AFTERNOON... PUTTING AN END TO THE BLSN...EXCEPT IN KDLH...WHERE                
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.                        
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  -5 -23  -7  -8 /  50  10  20  70                                           
INL  -4 -31  -9 -11 /  60  10  10  60                                           
BRD  -7 -22  -3 -10 /  20  10  30  60                                           
HYR  -4 -23  -1  -9 /  30  10  50  70                                           
ASX   1 -18   2  -1 /  70  10  20  70                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CROW            
     WING-PINE-SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                   
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CROW WING-PINE-             
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN             
     ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-                   
     NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-                 
     NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-                
     SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                   
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR                
     CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-                  
     NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-                 
     NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-                
     SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                   
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR                 
     BURNETT-SAWYER-WASHBURN.                                                   
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BURNETT-PRICE-              
     SAWYER-WASHBURN.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-            
     DOUGLAS-IRON.                                                              
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR                
     ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-DOUGLAS-IRON.                                             
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR              
     PRICE.                                                                     
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-              
     LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CST                 
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ146-LSZ147.                                                 
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-LSZ147.              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-             
     LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON/TL                                                                       
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
950 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...                                                         
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL                 
PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW HAS DUG            
A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND INTO THE              
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TREMENDOUS COLD AIR HAS              
SPILLED OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL            
U.S. WITH THIS TROUGH. CURRENT AIR TEMPS FROM MONTANA TO COLORADO               
EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND NORTH TO THE WESTERN GREAT                 
LAKES ARE WELL BELOW ZERO WITH MANY SPOTS 15 TO 25 DEGREES INTO THE             
NEGATIVE. THIS DOES NOT EVEN TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WIND CHILL WHICH IS              
DIPPING DOWN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 BELOW IN SPOTS (BRRRR!). CONDITIONS              
ARE RADICALLY DIFFERENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH LONGWAVE                  
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE REST OF THE             
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW RUNNING NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO AND               
ACROSS AL/GA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.             
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW                
PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD             
FRONT CHARGING SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN MS VALLEYS.             
THIS COLD FRONT IS THE DIVIDE BETWEEN THE BALMY AIRMASS IN PLACE                
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND THE FRIGID ARCTIC AIR TO THE                 
NORTHWEST. PRETTY INCREDIBLE TEMPERATURE DROPS BEING OBSERVED THIS              
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. STATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE              
SITTING IN THE LOWER 60S EARLIER THIS MORNING AND JUST A FEW HOURS              
LATER ARE PLUNGING THROUGH THE TEENS WITH SNOW FALLING! ALTHOUGH IT             
IS A BIT SCARY TO SEE THIS FRONT STILL CHARGING SOUTHEAST...IT WILL             
NEVER REACH OUR AREA. STRONG RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH IS UNANIMOUSLY                
PROGGED BY GUIDANCE TO STALL THE FRONT IN ITS TRACKS LATER TODAY AND            
TONIGHT JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT              
WE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RISING THROUGH THE UPPER             
50S AND 60S. SKIES ARE ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE ACROSS TH WEST AND             
NORTH WITH A BAND OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE                    
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.                                                          
SKY COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VARIABLE WITH A              
TENDENCY TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                
WEST. COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO CENTRAL MS/NORTHERN AL DURING            
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS COMBINING WITH            
DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK SYNOPTIC                 
SUPPORT FROM A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES TO SUPPORT A                  
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS ACROSS AL THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT EDGES                
CLOSER WE MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING THE EASTERN FL                
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...              
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WEAK             
SURFACE TROUGH FROM OUR EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ACROSS NORTHEAST                 
FLORIDA IS ALSO SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. ONE OR TWO OF                
THESE MAY REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON            
BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH VERY LIMITED IMPACT TO ANY                   
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.                                                             
COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A FEW WIDELY               
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN STILL NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE               
AND SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT            
DURATIONS SHOULD BE SHORT AND ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT.  VERY WARM NIGHT             
FOR MID-DECEMBER IS STORE WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S COMMON INLAND               
AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT THE COAST.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN BELOW EXERCISE                   
CAUTION CONDITIONS AND WILL TAKE THE HEADLINE OUT OF THE WESTERN                
LEGS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THIS GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN FURTHER                 
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS.               
A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE BALANCE               
OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF              
OF MEXICO.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIS MORNINGS FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND CEILINGS ARE IN VFR CATEGORY                
WITH BROKEN LAYERS BETWEEN 6KFT AND 9KFT. VFR THROUGH DAY AND                   
EVENING THEN SOME IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT TLH VLD AND ABY BY                   
MORNING AS SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN             
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  75  55  77  56  79 /  10  05  05  05  05                           
PANAMA CITY  74  60  75  60  77 /  20  05  10  05  05                           
DOTHAN       67  57  75  57  77 /  30  05  10  10  05                           
ALBANY       70  56  75  56  77 /  30  05  10  10  05                           
VALDOSTA     75  55  76  54  79 /  10  05  05  05  05                           
CROSS CITY   78  57  78  53  80 /  10  05  05  05  05                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GOREE                                                                
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD                                                            
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
538 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO                       
TUESDAY...STALLING OUT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT               
WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY                
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE COASTAL TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED WITH             
ONLY A SUBTLE INVERTED KINK NOTED IN THE ISOBARS JUST INLAND FROM               
THE COAST. HOWEVER ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION              
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS MUCH              
OF THE REGION WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 7000 FT. THE KCLX RADAR            
IS EVEN PICKING UP ON SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE                  
ATLANTIC CENTERED ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUNTING ISLAND. ONE OR               
TWO OF THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN OSSABAW SOUND AND               
SULLIVANS ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN             
DRY THROUGH SUNRISE.                                                            
THE WEAK INSITU WEDGE THAT IS PLACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WILL                    
STEADILY DECAY THIS MORNING AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SHIFTS               
EVEN FARTHER OUT IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC. MODELS SUGGEST SOME WEAK                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290-300K SURFACES WILL PERSIST THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB SHOULD                  
KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED. WILL KEEP                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT                    
CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS                 
LOW GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE MOISTURE PARAMETERS THAT ARE IN               
PLACE.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY                    
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S              
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS LOWER TO                
MID 50 WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE BEACHES CONSIDERABLY                    
COOLER. SHOULD SEE PATCHES OF DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE                  
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS OVER THE ATLANTIC RISE INTO THE              
MID 60S. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD IMPACT THE BEACHES LATE IN THE                  
AFTERNOON IN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                         
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE SEA FOG TO              
MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE               
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.               
SATELLITE DERIVED AND OBSERVED SEA SURFACE DATA INDICATE WATER                  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE SURF ZONE OUT TO              
AT LEAST 20 NM AND AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THESE                
COOL NEARSHORE WATERS EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO MATERIALIZE. ANY             
FOG BANKS THAT FORM SHOULD ADVECT SLOWLY INLAND THIS EVENING UNDER              
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ITS A TOUCH CALL ON EXACTLY HOW            
FAR INLAND THE FOG WILL MIGRATE BUT 03Z SREF VISIBILITY GUIDANCE AS             
WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS MOS PACKAGES ALL SUGGEST THE FOG WILL                   
PENETRATE INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WILL KEEP                
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST INLAND BUT INTRODUCE DENSE FOG WORDING             
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT VISIBILITIES              
TO DROP TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE               
DENSE FOG WORDING MUCH FARTHER INLAND PENDING 12Z AND 18Z MODEL                 
TRENDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF            
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE RELAYED IN THE MORNING               
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                                      
ANY LINGERING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN HALF OF               
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH INTO               
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT               
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER               
50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 AT THE BEACHES.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE COLD FRONT                      
BECOMING STALLED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON                  
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RIDGES NORTHWARD. LACKING ANY                  
STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS...RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY ON TUESDAY.                  
HAVE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MARINE               
ZONES AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...CLOSEST TO THE                     
SAGGING FRONT AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WATERS.                                
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT                     
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SURFACE                 
FLOW AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SREF VISIBILITIES CONFIRM A                 
DIURNAL PATTERN OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND AND SEA AT NIGHT...THEN            
LINGERING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE                
MAINTAINED FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION                
OF DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                        
THE LINGERING FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE                
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                 
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE REGION WILL THUS REMAIN WITHIN               
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE                 
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID              
TO UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                            
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE                         
WEEKEND...ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM               
THE NORTHWEST. GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT RIDGING COULD BE                   
SUFFICIENT TO STALL THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AGAIN. HOWEVER BOTH                  
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS INDICATE A STRONGER SECOND FRONT PUSHING               
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT                 
COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HAVE               
THUS INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A COOLING TREND SATURDAY AND              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH               
KCHS AND KSAV. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF                  
CLEARING THAT OCCURS AROUND THE KSAV TERMINAL JUST PRIOR TO                     
SUNRISE. SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD                
CANOPY ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC...SO THE                
RUC MAY VERY WELL BE ON TO SOMETHING. FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE                 
UNDER THE CURRENT LIGHT WIND REGIME SHOULD THIS CLEARING                        
MATERIALIZE. WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUND FOR 4SM BR BETWEEN 10-13Z            
AT KSAV TO HELP COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY CLEARING THAT DOES OCCUR            
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPING TO FILL THE               
CLOUD DECKS BACK IN LATER THIS MORNING.                                         
STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT             
AS AREAS OF SEA FOG MOVE INLAND. WILL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT                        
DETERIORATION AT KSAV WHERE MODELS HIT LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH                
06Z BUT LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE INTRODUCED TO BOTH               
TAF SITES WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.                                               
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR OR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY                   
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF SEA FOG AND/OR              
RADIATION FOG DEVELOPS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS HAVE FINALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA               
NOW THAT THE COASTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND AND DISSIPATED.                    
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY                
VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. REGIONAL BUOYS INDICATE                  
EASTERLY SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS ARE KEEPING SEAS                    
FAIRLY ENHANCED WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 4-6 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE               
WATERS AND 5-7 FT ACROSS THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG. WW4 KEEPS THESE              
SWELLS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL                
BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL BUT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.                                
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL              
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE SEA FOG. LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ADVECTING               
OVER WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SUGGEST THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS RATHER HIGH. COULD SEE               
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS AS EARLY AS THIS                  
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT              
AS THE FOG BANK SPREADS INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MENTION OF AREAS OF              
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4NM OR LESS. A MARINE DENSE FOG                   
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS INCLUDING               
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR TONIGHT.                                              
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE LIGHT                   
TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK...AS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK              
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE OUTER                  
GEORGIA WATERS WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH                        
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEA FOG. LIGHT SURFACE              
FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE COOL WATERS WILL CREATE AN                   
IDEAL FOG ENVIRONMENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL                     
DEVELOPMENT PATTERN...WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING               
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. FOG COULD                  
BECOME DENSE AND CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS. WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MENTION SEA FOG IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...AS                 
WELL AS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY...SETTING           
UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH                 
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW                
ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF               
MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH               
FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE OHOOPEE                
RIVER AT REIDSVILLE. AT 515 AM THE STAGE WAS 10.75 FT AND RISING.               
CURRENT PROJECTIONS TAKE THE RIVER INTO FLOOD AROUND SUNRISE                    
/FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FT/. HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE SOUTHEAST RIVER              
FORECAST CENTER/S FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY EVENING TO FIT               
OUR CURRENT THINKING. THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER DOES NOT              
OPEN UNTIL 6 AM SO WILL COORDINATE WITH THEM THEN.                              
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
TIDES ARE RUNNING VERY NEAR PREDICTED LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.                
THE GFS-BASED EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE DATA SUGGESTS TIDES WILL                
FALL JUST SHORT OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE              
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW NOTED ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA               
COAST SUSPECT THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING TIDE LEVELS NEAR                 
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD                
ADVISORY FROM 8 AM UNTIL NOON FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA                     
COASTAL ZONES. ATTM WE BELIEVE TIDES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY                 
THRESHOLDS ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ048>051.                
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST                
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352.                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST                    
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1014 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                              
ZONES/GRIDS WERE UPDATED AGAIN RECENTLY TO END THE WINTER WEATHER               
ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT.           
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY                   
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND                    
FLURRIES WERE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF                 
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.                                                             
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND MET MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPERATURES                   
GOING NOWHERE FAST TODAY...MAYBE ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES. NEWLY                   
ARRIVED GFS MOS TOO WARM RIGHT OFF THE BAT AND WAS DISCOUNTED. KEPT             
SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...ALTHOUGH IT              
SHOULD GENERALLY BE TRACE AMOUNTS.                                              
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 515 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                               
PRECIPITATION FROM DEPARTING WINTER STORM HAS ENDED OR WILL END                 
SHORTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL              
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD ONCE LINGERING              
SNOWS END AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTY          
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING                 
SYSTEM...BUT WILL DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE LATER                 
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.                                  
BAK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 343 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                               
WINTRY PRECIP HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST                 
AREA THIS MORNING. CLEARING IS MOVING IN RATHER QUICKLY AS COLD                 
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND SNOW                
IS STILL OCCURRING IN THE SE WHERE THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED                  
THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DRASTIC TEMPERATURE DROPS FROM              
THE LOW 50S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. WINTER WX               
ADVISORY IN THE WRN HALF OF THE FA IS GOING TO BE DROPPED AT                    
FORECAST ISSUANCE AS PRECIP IS ENDING. MANY ISSUES FOR THIS                     
FORECAST RUN...NEXT SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY WITH A PRECIP TYPE                       
PROBLEM...AND THE SAME FOR THURSDAY. TIMING CONSISTENCY IN THE                  
MODELS FOR THE THURSDAY SYSTEM IS NON EXISTENT. CURRENT FORECAST                
IS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF THE NAM/WRF AND THE ECMWF.                           
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                               
BITTERLY COLD DAY...WITH EASTERN AREAS SEEING THEIR HIGH TEMP THIS              
MORNING.  PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS QUICKLY...SHOULD                
BECOME ALL SNOW BY MID DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH               
LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER THOUGH MODELS DO                
LINGER PRECIP UNTIL 00Z SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 72....ENSEMBLES                     
HINTING AT SOME LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH IN THE OVERNIGHT                       
HOURS...ENHANCING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP A BIT FURTHER BACK THAN THE               
OPERATIONAL MODELS. HAVE PUT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT                   
HOURS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THIS WILL BE ALL SNOW...AND                       
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH.                  
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
REST OF THE WEEK A BIT OF A MESS AS WELL. TUESDAY SYSTEM SHOWING                
UP A BIT EARLIER IN THE FORECAST. MODELS SHIFTING THE WAVE                      
SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH...AND KEEPING A LOT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WELL              
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TOTALS IN THE FORECAST               
AND BY HPC ARE NOT QUITE REACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. EVEN                  
THOUGH HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED TO THE NORTH...WILL WITHHOLD ANY                 
HEADLINE AS MODELS ARE STILL TRENDING HEAVIER SNOW AWAY FROM ILX.               
THAT BEING SAID...AS THE WARMER AIR ALSO SHIFTS FURTHER                         
NORTH...SIGNALS ARE SHOWING UP FOR ANOTHER GLAZING OF ICE FOR                   
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WHAT MAY START AS SNOW TUESDAY...MAY END UP WITH              
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ICE CRYSTALS DISAPPEAR                   
FROM THE COLUMN.                                                                
BRIEF RESPITE ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES UP FROM THE                 
DESERT SW INTO THE MIDWEST. MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS               
THE GFS FAR MORE EXPLOSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT...WIDESPREAD AND                
MORE INTENSE. NAM HOLDS BACK BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS. GFS IS ALSO                   
SOMEWHAT WARMER...AND THE PRECIP TYPE TROUBLE ZONE IN THE MIDWEST               
IS PARKED RIGHT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX               
YET AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE VERY FEW DAYS IN THE FORECAST              
WITHOUT A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE                
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION COLLIDING WITH VERY COLD SURFACE AIR                
DRAINING INTO THE MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST VERY                    
DYNAMIC WITH MANY ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF                 
DAYS.                                                                           
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1012 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WHERE LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS PERSIST. AROUND AN INCH              
OF NEW SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THE                 
MAIN THREAT IS LOW TO ZERO VISIBILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY                
2. SFC STATIONS AT ASX/IWD REPORT RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES OF 2 SM               
OR LESS. HWY 2 WEST OF ASHLAND REMAINS CLOSED ATTM...BUT TRAFFIC                
IS BEING DETOURED. ANTICIPATE WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT               
NOON...WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL TAKES ITS PLACE.                        
CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NE MN                                     
GO...AND HAD A WIND CHILL ADVISORY GO RIGHT INTO EFFECT. UPGRADED               
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR MOST AREAS                  
OVERNIGHT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 AM TUES MORNING.                     
ATTM...KEPT THE SRN TIER OF ZONES /BRD TO HYR AND PBH/ AS ADVISORY              
OVERNIGHT SINCE GRADIENT SPREADS SWRD AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER                 
BUT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THIS AREA TO WIND CHILL WARNING IF WINDS                
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THRESHOLD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008/                         
..WINTER STORM WINDS DOWN WITH LIGHT SNOW...                                    
....EXCESSIVE COLD EXPECTED THIS WEEK...                                        
.....WIND CHILL ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                   
DISCUSSION...SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO SRN ONTARIO WITH CWA LEFT                   
UNDER MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. A SECONDARY                   
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MID LVL TROF HAS EJECTED NORTHEAST THIS               
MORNING SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT/MDT SNOW FROM THE TWIN                 
PORTS INTO THE ARROWHEAD. IT APPEARS ONE MORE SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING              
ACROSS ERN SD INTO SW MN ACCORDING TO LATEST 11U/3.9U IMAGERY.                  
LATEST RUC80 FCST OF THIS FEATURE SWINGS IT ACROSS CWA BY 18Z.                  
WILL LET WSW CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH                  
GUSTY WINDS/BLOWING SNOW. AFTER WSW EXPIRES...WIND CHILL ADVISORY               
WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES ALREADY AT             
30 TO 35 BELOW ACROSS MOST OF MN ZONES AND 15 TO 25 BELOW ACROSS                
WISC. MAIN STORY WILL BE COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE WEEK.             
MAY NEED TO UPGRADE WCA TO WIND CHILL WARNING TONIGHT ACROSS                    
RANGE/ARROWHEAD. MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM SO FAR WITH THIS                
OUTBREAK AND THIS TYPICALLY IS THE CASE. MET NUMBERS A BIT BETTER.              
SUSPECT CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT HOWEVER RADIATIONAL COOLING                 
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OPTIMAL. WINDS IN SFC/925 LAYER STILL BRISK                  
WITH LINGERING PRESS GRADIENT. ALSO...WITH LACK OF SHARP RIDGE                  
AXIS ALOFT MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS SNEAKING IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS.                 
REGARDLESS...STILL EXPECT TONIGH TO BE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS                    
SEASON SO FAR. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO REGION              
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA. GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON               
THIS SYSTEM WITH 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL EXPECTED.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MED RANGE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER MID WEEK...WITH GFS BRINGING A STRONG            
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRES INTO SRN WI ON THURS. GFS LACKS SUPPORT              
OF BOTH ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HOWEVER...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SOUTH INTO            
THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO WRN ONT.            
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTION...BACKING POPS TO THE               
LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THUR/THUR NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW BY FRI               
NIGHT INTO SAT AS FLOW BECOMES SWRLY AHEAD OF BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH            
EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW                
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL ARCTIC              
OUTBREAK BY THE WEEKEND.                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING                          
DUE TO BLSN AND -SN...WHILE CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR                  
RANGE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND BACK THIS                        
AFTERNOON... PUTTING AN END TO THE BLSN...EXCEPT IN KDLH...WHERE                
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.                        
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  -5 -20  -1  -8 /  10  10  20  70                                           
INL  -4 -28  -9 -11 /  10  10  10  60                                           
BRD  -7 -25  -1 -10 /  10  10  30  60                                           
HYR  -4 -20   3  -9 /  10  10  50  70                                           
ASX   1 -18   1  -1 /  70  10  20  70                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY              
     FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-                          
     KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                         
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN                           
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                      
     CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-                  
     NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-                 
     NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-                
     SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                   
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CROW WING-PINE-             
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                             
WI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY              
     FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-DOUGLAS-IRON.                                         
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DOUGLAS.             
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BURNETT-PRICE-              
     SAWYER-WASHBURN.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-            
     IRON.                                                                      
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ASHLAND-             
     BAYFIELD-IRON.                                                             
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-              
     LSZ148.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ146-LSZ147.            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-             
     LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING/GSF                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN BLSN TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS              
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LSUP MOVES NORTHEAST AND ARCTIC HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SD. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE                   
DAY WITH NO REAL RELIEF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WEST AND                    
EVENING EAST. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH VFR                 
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. THE TRANQUILITY WILL NOT LAST LONG AS               
STRONG UPGLIDE AND SATURATION DEVELOPS FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY                
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPING                
TUESDAY MORNING AT KRWF AND AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES IN THE                 
AFTERNOON. KRWF...KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU LOOK TO BE IN LINE FOR 2 TO              
3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT KSTC AND KAXN.                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008/                              
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER ON WIND CHILLS THE NEXT 18                       
HOURS...THOUGH ATTENTION IN FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE TURNING TO                    
TUES/TUES EVE SNOW EVENT AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE ONE FOR THU.                 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS 993MB LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO                
CENTRAL ONTARIO. NEARLY 50MB DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND                
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXPANDING OVER THE CTRL PLAINS.                     
RESULTANT WINDS CONTINUE SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING                 
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH                 
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS TO THE                 
START THE DAY IN WEST CTRL MN. WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 25                 
AND 40 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE                 
EARLY MORNING. OVERALL...AIR TEMPS ARE 35 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER                  
ACROSS THE AREA THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO! WHAT A CLASSIC EARLY                    
WINTER CYCLONE.                                                                 
CURRENT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE NEARLY THE SAME IN SPEED AND GUST                 
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AREA AND UPSTREAM WIND PROFILERS                       
MEASURING 925MB WINDS AT 30 KTS AND RUC SOUNDINGS DIAGNOSING                    
CONTINUED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE WINDS WILL VERY                    
GRADUALLY EASE THIS AFTN AND WITH THAT THE BLOWING SNOW SHOULD                  
TOO. 1000-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO PROGGED TO ACCORDINGLY                  
DIMINISH GRADUALLY. SO TEMPS ARE THOUGHT TO BE NEARLY STEADY THIS               
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLIMBING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES THIS AFTN. WIND               
CHILLS THIS ENTIRE TIME THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA               
WITH WARNING CRITERIA CONTINUING ACROSS THE WEST. SO HAVE EXTENDED              
HEADLINES. WRN WI LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH WIND INTO THIS EVE UNDER              
DEPARTING MSLP GRADIENT SO HAVE ADVISORY GOING TO MIDNIGHT IN THAT              
AREA.                                                                           
AIR TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB                
MAGNITUDE MOVES OVER THE SRN CWA. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS IN                    
MN...CLEAR SKIES CWA WIDE...AND FRESH SNOW COVER IN MANY PLACES                 
WILL RESULT IN AN IDEAL SETUP FOR PLUNGING TEMPS BETWEEN 7 PM AND               
9 PM. NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
MN CWA BY 9 PM. FRESH SNOW COVER EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERAL DEGREE              
IMPACT. RECENT LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL RESEARCH WITH A NIGHT AFTER A               
FRESH SNOW AND THESE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS WOULD INDICATE                 
NEAR -18F AT MSP. HAVE GONE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT WITH SOME                  
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS EXPECTED VERY LATE. AREAS OF WEST CTRL MN WITH              
DEEP FRESH SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO -23 TO -28. RECORD LOW MIN              
TEMP AT ST CLOUD FOR TUES MORNING IS -21 IN 1963 WHICH WILL BE IN               
GREAT JEOPARDY.                                                                 
ON THE IMMEDIATE HEALS OF THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL COME A POTENT MID-              
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTHEAST WITHIN THE POWERFUL STATIONARY                
UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR SOUTH ON TUES AND TUES NIGHT. VORT                       
ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG AND FOCUSED                
AHEAD OF THIS. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE POTENT                  
WITH THIS...BUT BOTH THESE...THE 00Z GFS...AND 21Z SREF FAVOR AT                
LEAST SRN MN TO WRN WI TO BE UNDER A CORRIDOR OF SNOW DURING TUES               
AFTN AND EVE. WITH THE SNOW FALLING INTO A VERY COLD AIR                        
MASS...RATIOS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 17:1 IF NOT CONSIDERABLY                
HIGHER. FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES RIGHT NOW WOULD               
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AS TIME APPROACHES AND THE IMMEDIATE WIND                   
CHILL CONCERNS END. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS                   
FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR STATIONARY BANDING MAY ENTER THE CWA AND                 
INCREASE THOSE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALBERT LEA...TO RED WING...TO              
EAU CLAIRE. ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORY AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE                  
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES...BUT AT THIS TIME                   
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. ONE OF THOSE IS A WAVE ON THE POLAR JET TO                
OUR NORTH WHICH DOES MOVE IN DURING THE EVE. THE INFLUENCE THIS                 
HAS ON THE SRN SHORT WAVE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH DURING              
THE LATE AFTN AND EVE. HAVE FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW               
IN THE ENVELOPE OF MOST CONFIDENCE WHICH CONTINUES TO INCREASE.                 
AFTER THAT...A SYSTEM ON THU IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY                       
POTENTIALLY KEEPS OUR ONE SYSTEM-EVERY-36-HOUR PATTERN GOING                    
STRONG. THIS SYSTEM IS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE NOW CLOSED                 
LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS               
HANDLE THIS CONSISTENTLY THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN                    
DIVERGE MID-WEEK IN THE RESPONSIVE LEE-CYCLOGENESIS. 00Z GFS WAS                
AN OUTLIER...BRINGING A LOW ON A VERY INTERESTING PATH FAVORING                 
GOOD SNOW HERE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH               
BRINGING THE LOW INTO SRN IL AND GIVING US BASICALLY NOTHING.                   
ENSEMBLE LEANS TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AT                   
KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE THE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR                  
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BUT TOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GET A              
GOOD HANDLE ON THE GUIDANCE WITH THAT SYSTEM. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT               
THINGS AS IS WITH THE FORECAST DURING THU.                                      
OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH                   
ANOTHER COLD SHOT OF A POTENTIAL SIMILAR MAGNITUDE AS THIS                      
CURRENT ONE BECOMING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR              
     ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-                     
     DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-                 
     KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-                    
     MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-                   
     RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-               
     SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW                        
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-               
     BENTON-BLUE EARTH-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-                
     GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-                    
     MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-                  
     SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.                            
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-                
     CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-POPE-                      
     REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-YELLOW                        
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR              
     BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST.                 
     CROIX.                                                                     
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-                 
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
350 AM PST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A VERY COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH               
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND                
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. A DRYING TREND IS                
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL                 
PERSIST.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND AREA RADAR LOOPS SHOW BROAD ASCENT                  
OCCURRING OVER MOST OF OUR CWFA...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND                      
THICKENING AND RADAR RETURNS SLOWLY INCREASING. THIS IS IN EXCELLENT            
ALIGNMENT WITH THE RUC MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH SUGGESTED PRECIP                 
BREAKING OUT IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN 3 AM AND 5 AM. SURFACE             
OBS SHOW SNOW OCCURRING AT KBIH AND KDRA AS OF 3 AM. USING AN                   
APPROXIMATION FROM DRY BULB AND DEWPOINT...3 AM WET BULB                        
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT 31F AT KLAS...34F AT KDAG...35F AT                      
KNXP...AND 27F AT KIGM. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONFIGURATION OF THE                  
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAKE             
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS A DRY PERIOD TONIGHT AND            
TUESDAY BETWEEN IMPULSES...BUT THE GFS HOLDS ON TO MORE MOISTURE.               
TRIED TO BLEND THE TWO SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND              
IN POPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT NOT NEARLY AS DRY AS THE NAM12.              
WILL WORRY MORE ABOUT LATER TIME PERIODS AFTER THIS FIRST STORM IS              
OVER.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE THE AREA IN DRYING                    
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. NEXT                
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO AREA               
SATURDAY. SO FAR MODELS DEPICT THIS AS A PRIMARILY DRY EVENT WITH               
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. MAIN ELEMENTS TO             
WATCH ARE THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. DID RAISE WIND SPEEDS IN                  
GRIDDED DATABASE BUT NOT TO THE BREEZY LEVEL OR HIGHER WITH THE                 
EXCEPTION BEING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE BREEZY SHOWS              
UP IN TEXT. OTHER ACTION TAKEN WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7                 
DEGREES ON AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SATURDAY FRONT IS                 
DEPICTED VERY WELL IN THE THICKNESS RIBBON AND GUIDANCE POINTS THAT             
WAY AS WELL. LOOKING FURTHER MODELS HAVE ANOTHER STRONG AND MOIST               
LOW DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT PORTENTS TO BE VERY ACTIVE              
THE TWO DAYS PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS              
MORNING BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN                    
THE TIMING OF EVENTS IN THE 12Z TAF IS LOW AS LOW CIGS/VSBY/SNOW IS             
A NOT A COMMON EVENT. A 13 TO 15Z ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL               
LIKELY WITH IT BEGINNING AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. BY LATE MORNING             
IT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AND THEN TURN BACK TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN              
THE LATE AFTERNOON ONWARDS. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH IS                   
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MELT            
THE SNOW. THE 12Z TAF REPRESENTS BEST ESTIMATE OF HOW LOW CIGS AND              
VSBY WILL DROP IN THE SNOW. STILL LOOK FOR QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN                 
CONDITIONS AROUND AND AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM                   
BRINGING THE WEATHER TO THE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO                 
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW...LOW CIGS AND VSBY THEN. THE BRUNT OF               
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF KLAS IN                     
ARIZONA.                                                                        
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST             
CALIFORNIA...CEILINGS ARE LOWERING THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST               
AS MOIST AIR FLOWS IN FROM THE WEST OVER COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER               
THE REGION. EXPECT VERY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TODAY AND THE                  
ATTENDANT LOW CIGS AND VSBY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR             
A CONSIDERABLE TIME TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST THIS             
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION OVER WITH IN ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT.                  
ANOTHER STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY             
AND AGAIN BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN...SNOW AND LOW CIGS AND VSBY.                   
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...WITH SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR LAS VEGAS HERE ARE SOME                
STATISTICS ON SNOW. DATA ARE FOR THE OFFICIAL SNOWFALL REPORTING                
SITE FOR LAS VEGAS...WHICH WAS AT MCCARRAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT                
FROM 1937 THROUGH JANUARY 31 1996...AND THEN 2 MILES SOUTHWEST AT               
THE NWS OFFICE ON DEAN MARTIN ROAD SINCE FEBRUARY 1 1996.                       
THE LAST TIME SNOW OFFICIALLY FELL IN LAS VEGAS WAS ON DECEMBER 22ND            
2006 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW WAS MIXED IN WITH RAIN.                               
THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE SNOW OFFICIALLY FELL IN LAS VEGAS WAS ON               
DECEMBER 30TH 2003 WHEN 1.3 INCHES FELL.                                        
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IN LAS VEGAS WAS IN               
1967...WHEN 2.0 INCHES FELL. COINCIDENTALLY...THAT SNOW ALSO FELL ON            
DECEMBER 15TH.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST TODAY FOR NVZ018-019-022.             
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST TODAY FOR NVZ015>017-020.           
AZ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TODAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR               
     AZZ001-003.                                                                
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST TODAY FOR CAZ524.                     
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST TODAY FOR CAZ519.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MORGAN/JACQUES                                                                  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS                                                     
</pre> nv                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
854 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.                     
AS COLD AIR SPILLS BEHIND IT...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL               
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THE RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO                
SLICK CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.                
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SHOOT OR PRECIPITATION                  
TONIGHT...BEFORE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE FRONT TUESDAY              
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT ON KILN RADAR PLOWING THRU FCST AREA.                   
FRONT HAS PASSED THRU ILN AND CMH METRO WITHIN THE LAST THIRTY                  
MINS. TEMPS FALLS ARE THEN FAST AND FURIOUS IN THE WAKE OF THE                  
FROPA...AND THAT IS REQUIRING SOME CHANGES TO FCST FOR TODAY. RUC               
MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A REALLY NICE HANDLE ON THE TEMP FALLS AND                  
HAVE UTILIZED ITS SOLN FOR TEMPS PRIMARILY INTO THE AFTN HOURS.                 
ANALYSIS OF OBS TO OUR WEST INDCG THAT IT IS TAKING ABOUT THREE                 
HOURS OR SO FRO TEMPS TO FALL TO THE FREEZING LEVEL AFTER FROPA.                
HAVE THEREFORE...GONE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TEMP FALLS FOR THE              
REST OF THE DAY...WITH LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 20S TO L30S                   
(MAYBE EVEN LOWER THAN THAT).                                                   
MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS IMPACT TEMP FALLS WILL                
HAVE ACRS THE REGION. PCPN CHANGING FROM -RA TO -FZRA/PL AND                    
EVENTUALLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO REGION.               
HOWEVER...PCPN IS LIGHT ENUF THAT IT IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE                     
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS AS IT CHANGES TO -FZRA/PL/-SHSN. OF MUCH                   
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE ON                          
ROADS/EXPOSED SURFACES DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT NATURE OF THE TEMP                
FALLS. ESSENTIALLY...THE TEMPERATURE WILL FALL SO QUICKLY THAT                  
WATER ON THE ROADS AND EXPOSED SURFACES STAND A GREATER CHANCE TO               
FREEZE RAPIDLY CAUSING POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE AND SLICK ROADS.                 
INTEND TO HANDLE THIS WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT OUT               
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...BEGINNING IMMEDIATELY ACRS NW 1/2 FCST                    
AREA AND BY 16Z FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP                  
THINGS SIMPLE AND NOT CONFUSE THE PUBLIC...FELT BEST COURSE OF                  
ACTION WAS TO MERGE THE ADVISORIES WE HAD UP FOR THIS MRNG ACRS                 
WEST CNTRL OH AND TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-71 INTO ONE                      
PRODUCT WITH TWO SEGMENTS. THE ADVISORY FOR WINTRY PCPN TONIGHT                 
WILL NOW BEGIN AT 16Z TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FREEZING                   
CONDITIONS THIS AFTN. THE ADVISORY WILL THEN CONTINUE IN ITS PREV               
STATE TONIGHT FOR THE EXPECTED WINTRY PCPN. THE REMAINDER OF THE                
FCST AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-71 WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY FOR FLASH              
FREEZE POTENTIAL NOW THRU 22Z. WILL BE ISSUING UPDATED ADVISORY                 
AND HWO MOMENTARILY...ALONG WITH A NEW ZONE FCST.                               
WILL REEVALUATE THIS LATER THIS MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN FOR ANY                  
POTENTIAL UPDATES. MORE THAN LIKELY THOUGH...THIS WILL NOT BE THE               
ONLY FCST UPDATE IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING WX SCENARIO. ZONE AND GRID               
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                      
MODELS EJECT A H/5 VORT OUT TONIGHT. THIS CAUSES A DEFORMATION                  
BEND TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FA TONIGHT...RUNNING                
ALONG A SDF-CVG-CHILLICOTHE LINE.THICKNESSES SHOULD COLD ENUF FOR               
SNOW...EXCEPT IN KY...WHERE SOME PL IS POSSIBLE.                                
MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT DIFFERENCES...MAINLY IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF             
PRODUCED. THE NAM IS DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW COUNTIES..WHILE               
THE NGM AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WETTER. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE A NICE                   
COMPROMISE...SO LEANED TOWARDS IS SNOW AND QPF. WENT WITH A 2-4                 
INCH SNOW SWATH SURROUNDED BY A 1-3. WENT A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR              
THE SRN 2/3 OF FA.                                                              
THAT ENERGY SLIDES NE OF THE REGION FOR TUE. THERE IS STILL SOME                
LINGERING OVERRUNNING LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE S ON TUE...BUT ONLY              
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNT S EXPECTED.                                                   
THEN NEXT AND STRONGER H5 VORT KICKS OUT OF THE MS VALLEY TUE                   
NIGHT...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. WITH ARCTIC AIR IN                        
PLACE...SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER H8 TEMPS WILL                 
RISE QUICKLY ABOVE 0 C AND WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. NAM AND                   
GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL FEATURES...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE               
DEEPER WITH THE LOW. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS...SO LOOKS LIKE A                   
PERIOD OF FZRA UNTIL SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE NW WILL                 
PROBABLY SEE SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET...SINCE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER              
UP THERE. THERE IS ENUF THREAT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR                
TUE NGT.                                                                        
LOW PASSES TO THE E LATE TUE NGT INTO WED. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL                
BE SOME LINGERING PCPN EARLY WED....BUT IT SHOULD END BY NOON.                  
GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW IN THE PLAINS WITH A WRMFNT IN                 
THE OH VLY. THE OLD ECMWF WASNT AS STRONG...SO DISCOUNT THE 00Z GFS             
FOR WED NGT.                                                                    
GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO MAV...SINCE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE               
TRENDED THE FORECAST SOLN CLOSER TO OPERATIONAL ECMWF WITH A HIGH               
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WX                   
SYSTEMS.                                                                        
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS WITH A DEEPENING LOW EJECTING NE FROM THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.                 
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW. THE GFS               
IS QUICKER AND FURTHER N WITH THE LOW. HAVE FOLLOWED THE COLDER AND             
SLOWER ECMWF SOLN BUT OPTED FOR A LTL QUICKER RETURN OF MOISTURE.               
HAVE SPREAD OVERRUNNING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO                   
THURSDAY. THIS PRECIP WL LIKELY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE                    
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN LATE THUR NIGHT AND              
EARLY FRI PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE HI TO PROVIDE DRY                   
WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ARCTIC FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THRU             
LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD TEMPS AND DRY WX EXPECTED NEXT SUNDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF AND BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING                  
VSBYS TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. FROPA WILL BE ON                
THE WESTERN TAF SITES BORDER AT 12Z AND WORK QUICKLY                            
EAST...THROUGH CMH AND ILN BY 1330Z THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL HANG                
ON FOR A BIT BEHIND FROPA BUT SFC TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW                      
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. CIGS WILL DROP TO THE              
MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT SEE A FEW UPWARD                   
PEEKS WHERE THE LOW SC DECK IS OCCASIONALLY SCT UNDER A BKN                     
6-10KFT DECK.                                                                   
WEST WIND SHIFT WILL ANNOTATE FROPA THIS MORNING. BY EVENING...AN               
UPPER VORT WILL WRING OUT SOME SNOW ALONG AND ESP SE OF I-71                    
CORRIDOR. AM NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF THIS SNOW              
IS BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS COULD ALLOW LOWER SC DECK               
FROM 1-2KFT TO BREAK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESP TO THE NW.                     
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>053-060-061.                                    
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY               
     NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-                  
     077>082-088.                                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ054>056-             
     062>065-070>074-077>082-088.                                               
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY               
     NIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.                                                      
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     INZ050-058-059-066.                                                        
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY               
     NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.                                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ073>075-             
     080.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RYAN                                                                 
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...SITES                                                              
LONG TERM...AR                                                                  
AVIATION...FRANKS                                                               
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
300 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL                 
PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW HAS DUG A                       
SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND INTO THE                
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TREMENDOUS COLD AIR HAS              
SPILLED OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL            
U.S. WITH THIS TROUGH. AIR TEMPS FROM MONTANA TO COLORADO                       
EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND NORTH TO THE WESTERN GREAT                 
LAKES WERE WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING WITH MANY SPOTS 15 TO 25                
DEGREES INTO THE NEGATIVE. CURRENT AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NOT MUCH                 
BETTER WITH MANY LOCATIONS FAILING TO GET ABOVE ZERO (BRRRR!).                  
CONDITIONS ARE RADICALLY DIFFERENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH                
LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE                
REST OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW RUNNING                  
NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO AND ACROSS AL/GA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ABUNDANT            
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.                                                        
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW                
PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD             
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN MS VALLEYS.            
THIS COLD FRONT IS THE DIVIDE BETWEEN THE BALMY AIRMASS IN PLACE                
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND THE FRIGID ARCTIC AIR TO THE                 
NORTHWEST. HARD TO BELIEVE WITH OUR CURRENT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO               
MIDDLE 70S THAT READINGS ARE DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AS                  
CLOSE AS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.                                                  
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN MS/CENTRAL AL               
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A BIT SCARY TO SEE THIS                
FRONT AND THE LARGE TEMPERATURE DROPS IN ITS WAKE STILL CHARGING                
SOUTHEAST...IT SHOULD NEVER REACH OUR AREA. STRONG RIDGING TO OUR               
SOUTH IS UNANIMOUSLY PROGGED BY GUIDANCE TO STALL THE FRONT IN ITS              
TRACKS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR                 
WESTERN AND NW ZONES. FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE             
NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH               
OCCASIONAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM A SERIES OF PASSING SOUTHERN STREAM            
IMPULSES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS ACROSS AL INTO            
WEST-CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT EDGES CLOSER THROUGH THE EVENING THE              
CHANCE WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REACH OUR WESTERN             
AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. MAINLY LOOKING AT CHANCE RANGE POPS NORTH               
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM AROUND ALBANY TO PANAMA CITY. HOWEVER...                
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.            
FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ONLY                
LOOKING FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF                  
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. VERY WARM NIGHT FOR MID-DECEMBER IN STORE WITH             
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S COMMON. DUE TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF              
THE COASTAL WATERS...TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DROPPING OUT OF THE            
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST FROM WAKULLA COUNTY WESTWARD. DIFFICULT               
FORECAST FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF            
FOG IN THE GRIDS HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST SREF              
ENSEMBLES ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.                                      
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF                
TUESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAINS STALLED JUST TO OUR             
NORTHWEST. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED                
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA.             
AGAIN MAINLY LOOKING AT AN AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO PANAMA            
CITY FOR THESE SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH              
AFTER THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS EDGING                  
SLOWLY BACK NORTH LATE IN THE DAY TAKING THE BEST WARM AIR/MOISTURE             
ADVECTION WITH IT. EXPECT THAT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH                
WE SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON            
HOURS. WITH 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12C AND 13C REGION-WIDE WILL BE                 
EXPECTING TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE AND PERHAPS UPPER 70S. WITH             
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON WOULD NOT EVEN BE                
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOP. IF IT DOES            
OCCUR THEN TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE                
TOWARD 70 FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.                              
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE SHAPING UP TO BE QUIET                
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WEATHER                   
PATTERN TAKES ON AN APPEARANCE MORE SUMMER-LIKE THAN ONE APPROACHING            
THE FIRST DAYS OF WINTER. STRONG PIECE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY                
WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AMPLIFYING THE                 
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. IN RESPONSE WILL SEE THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS             
THE GULF OF MEXICO AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OUR                    
FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE ENJOYING STACKED SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL PUSH THE OLD             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH RAIN CHANCES               
REMAINING LOW THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590DM AND            
850MB TEMPS OF 13-14C SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY              
INTO THE UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH A FEW SPOTS               
LIKELY REACHING 80. ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LOOKING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR            
A WEAK SEABREEZE TO KEEP THINGS COOLER AT THE BEACHES DURING THE                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY).                                           
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES               
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT SHOULD HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CWA              
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK... BEFORE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH AN              
ARCTIC SFC RIDGE BEHIND IT APPROACH THE AREA BY THE LATTER HALF OF              
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF ARE             
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT             
(IN THE SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING TIME FRAME)...ALONG WITH IT BEING A               
LOW POP EVENT WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT PASSING WELL            
TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SCENARIO IS QUITE FAR INTO THE               
FUTURE...DO NOT WANT TO WRITE OFF TSTMS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY              
AFTER WHAT WILL BE AN UNUSUALLY LONG PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MOISTURE.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO             
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST             
WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE               
MID-WEEK PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE                  
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINING WORK WEEK                
KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. VERY WARM             
INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY            
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FEEBLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH                
AFTERNOON AND TURN NEAR SHORE FLOW ONSHORE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WARM MOIST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR FOG                  
FORMATION ACROSS THE ARE TONIGHT. HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING                    
DISTRIBUTION OF LOW VISBY AND CIGS. BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR LIFR                   
CONDITIONS AT TAE WITH IFR AT VLD ABY AND DHN.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DESPITE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS..A                 
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES                 
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE                        
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME.                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA            
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO                
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA                  
RIVERS AND STREAM. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE MANY SWOLLEN RIVERS               
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO                
MONITOR THE RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS WEB PAGE:                                     
(HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE) FOR THE LATEST RIVER               
STAGES AND FORECASTS. THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS            
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT THIS SITE AND ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  56  76  55  78  54 /  10  10  05   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  62  74  61  75  58 /  20  20  10   0   0                           
DOTHAN       58  74  58  78  57 /  45  35  10  05   0                           
ALBANY       56  75  58  78  56 /  25  25  10  05   0                           
VALDOSTA     54  77  55  79  54 /  10  10   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   54  78  53  81  52 /  10  10   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GOREE                                                   
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...MROCZKA                                  
LONG TERM...GOULD                                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1117 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
TEMP AND WIND TRENDS MAIN CONCERN TODAY.  LATEST RUC/NAM RAW TEMPS              
ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO REALITY THIS MORNING WHILE GFS IS TOO WARM.                 
HAVE FOLLOWED RUC/NAM GIVING LITTLE REBOUND TODAY...AND HIGHS ONLY              
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.  NAM MOS PLUS A FEW                  
DEGREES.  07Z SFC ANLYS STILL SHOWS ANOTHER ISALLOBARIC MAX PASSAGE             
THROUGH IA SO EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN CONSISTENT EARLY THIS                      
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY.  HOWEVER WITH OUR                 
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE IT WILL KEEP US IN WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALL              
BUT SERN SECTIONS TIL NOON...AND NRN THREE TIERS TIL MIDNIGHT.  THUS            
WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE...BUT EXTEND NRN ONE TIL 06Z.              
VSBYS HAVE BEEN A MILE OR LESS AT KEST THIS MORNING...AND OFTEN DOWN            
TO 1/4SM IN BLOWING SNOW...SO HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WX ADVY FOR                  
BLOWING SNOW TIL 8AM.  DOT ROAD REPORTS STILL SHOW LIMITED VSBYS IN             
THESE AREAS.                                                                    
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS AS WELL AS MANUAL OBSERVATIONS WOULD                 
INDICATE THAT AWOS/ASOS CIGS ARE TOO BULLISH ACROSS IA THIS MORNING             
LIKELY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND ELEVATED ICE CRYSTALS.  THUS WILL GO             
WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN NEPHANLYS WOULD EXPECT.                                 
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER GIVES WAY TO RATHER STRONG OVERRUNNING            
EVENT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H850 FLOW LIFTING OVER A THE                  
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR TUESDAY FOR A BROAD UPGLIDE...WITH H300            
JET MAX OF 150 KTS ALSO AIDING BROAD AREA OF LIFT DURING THE DAYTIME            
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT FAIRLY UNIFORM CONDITIONS WILL             
TRANSLATE FROM SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH TO EASTERN SECTIONS BY EVENING.             
QUESTION OF THE DAY IS NOT SO MUCH THE SNOW:WATER RATIO...BUT THE               
AMOUNT OF QPF IS THE KEY. SO FAR THE EURO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH              
PAST 4 OR MORE RUNS WITH NEARLY .40 TO .45 OF QPF. GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN            
SLIGHTLY LESS RELIABLE FROM RUN TO RUN BUT CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT              
LESS IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE 00Z UKMET IS NEARER .30 TOTAL AS                
WELL. IN ANY EVENT IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY HIGH END ADVISORY FOR THE             
SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF                   
BREACHING 6+ INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF OF HIGHWAY 30. TIME                
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE               
FOR THE EVENT WHICH SHOULD LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS ONCE IT BEGINS.              
THIS TRACKS FAIRLY WELL WITH ABOUT 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.              
AFTER SOME DELIBERATION HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR TUESDAY             
FROM 12Z THROUGH 06Z WED. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER WEST PRIOR              
TO 21Z BUT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS EAST. THOUGH                  
BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM SNOWFALL OF EVEN 4 TO 5 INCHES               
DURING THE DAY WILL CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS FOR AREA TRAVELERS. NEWEST              
06Z NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z RUN...BUT TRENDS REMAIN                       
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME. THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THE                
EVENING HOURS AND SOME CLEARING EXPECTED BY MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED               
MINS WEST SECTIONS BASED ON THIS THINKING. QUICK BREAK FOR WED                  
BEFORE THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION FOR LATER ON                   
THURSDAY. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE                
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR GETTING INTO THE SYSTEM. GFS MUCH WARMER THAN THE            
EURO...AND STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS MUCH DIFFERENT...FARTHER NORTH            
AND TRACK IS ALSO DIFFERENT. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO GOING            
PTYPE AND POP GIVEN CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. THE EURO MAINTAINS A MORE              
SOUTHERLY TRACK AND IS ALSO A TOUCH SLOWER. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER               
SYSTEM BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR             
ON THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS STILL AGREE ON OVERALL PATTERN            
IN THIS REGARD.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...15/18Z                                                              
DIMINISHING WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY VSBY ISSUES AT KMCW THIS AFTN.             
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z OR BEYOND. SNOW WILL BE                  
DEVELOPING AFT 14Z TUESDAY...WITH CIELINGS AND VSBY COMING DOWN                 
ACCORDINGLY WEST TO EAST THRU 18Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF INTENSITY              
BEFORE 18Z...HAVE ONLY BROUGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO HIGH END IFR AT               
WESTERN SITES...AND MVFR AT EASTERN SITES.                                      
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVY TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY /18Z MONDAY/                      
SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-                 
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-                
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA                  
ADAIR-ADAMS-CLARKE-DECATUR-LUCAS-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.                         
WIND CHILL ADVY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING /06Z TUESDAY/                   
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO                           
GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER.                        
WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING /12Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...FOR GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-               
TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON            
-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR           
-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BSS                                                                
LONG TERM...REV                                                                 
AVIATION...MOYER                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1043 AM MST MON DEC 15 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1000 AM MST MON DEC 15 2008                                                     
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMEPRATURES             
FOR THE DAY. AREAS RECEIVING SUN ARE STILL VERY SLOW TO RECOVER.                
DO ONLY HAVE A THIN LAYER OF SNOW BUT CURRENT 4 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURE           
IS BETWEEN 30 AND 31 DEGREES. DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE SOUTHEAST                
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH A PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK DUE TO MID/UPPER                 
LEVEL JET IN THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN AND EVEN SPREAD                  
NORTH DURING THE DAY.                                                           
RUC 2 METER/NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS ARE ALL SIMILAR AND                    
SUPPORT GOING COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WHERE THE                  
COLD AIR IS DEEPEST. SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO              
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED                   
TRENDS. WINDS ARE CLOSE BUT JUST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST              
RUC/CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TRENDS ON                        
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.                                                     
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES/WINDS/WIND CHILL               
READINGS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.                           
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE REACHED IN YUMA COUNTY LAST NIGHT AND              
AGAIN THIS MORNING (-14F AS OF 2 AM MST). BURLINGTON COLORADO HAS               
BROKEN THEIR RECORD THIS MORNING AS WELL AND GOODLAND IS WITHIN                 
ONE DEGREE OF TYING THEIRS. STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED A BIT LATER               
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AHEAD OF               
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING THE WESTERN 1/3-1/4 OF THE WESTERN PART                
OF THE COUNTRY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE                  
WEST/SOUTHWEST. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS. ONCE THIS                  
SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AND                    
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A WELL              
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH COLORADO. TOTAL SNOW WITH THIS               
SYSTEM WELL BELOW AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.                                      
WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST                 
WINDS REMAIN ABOVE 10 MPH AND TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE SINGLE                   
DIGITS. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE 12Z MODELS AND FINE                
TUNE THE WINDS AND TEMPS. WILL MENTION WIND CHILLS APPROACHING                  
-15F IN THE HWO AS A HEADS UP.                                                  
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS                 
GIVEN DISAGREEMENTS IN 850 TEMPS...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND                    
SURFACE FEATURE POSITIONS. TRIED NOT TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM CURRENT              
FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE                         
TEENS...COLDEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WHERE WINDS LIGHTEST              
AND PROXIMITY TO ARCTIC HIGH THE CLOSEST. MINS TONIGHT AROUND ZERO              
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE...COULD BE A TAD ON THE              
COLD SIDE IF CLOUDINESS IMPACTS LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.                    
FOR TUESDAY TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM CLOSE TO 20 ACROSS THE                     
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST               
AND WEST. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FOR WEDNESDAY                
WARMED TEMPS UP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES WITH LOW 20S EAST/NORTHEAST                 
AND LOW 30S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST.                                                 
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...NO CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.                              
07                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1034 AM MST MON DEC 15 2008                                                     
FOR THE 18 TAF CYCLE...FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO                
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS               
WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO LOWER LEVEL CEILINGS BY ABOUT 06Z.                    
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z MVFR CEILINGS MAY IMPACT KGLD...BUT WAS NOT                 
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT A CEILING IN A PREVAILING TAF LINE.                 
BETWEEN 06Z AND ABOUT 17Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST              
TO AROUND THE 13G23KT RANGE. AFTER 17Z...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO                 
AROUND 10KT FROM THE SOUTH UNDER VFR CEILINGS. FOR KMCK...VFR                   
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW SEEM MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z AS                 
WINDS ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND THE 12G19KT                    
RANGE. AFTER 16Z...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH TO AROUND                 
10KT AS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW LESSENS AND MVFR CEILINGS RAISE UP TO               
VFR CEILINGS.                                                                   
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
411 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH                 
OVER HUDSON BAY. A CLOSED OVER WESTERN OREGON IS SWINGING THROUGH               
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS ONE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH              
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER IS               
SWEEPING INTO THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER WEST                
CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH NEW YORK                  
STATE. A LARGE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST TO A              
LARGE HIGH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO                
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CAUSE WINDS TO GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER THE                   
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. A THERMAL TROUGH WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE            
LOW CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURE AT 850MB TO -24C WHICH IS                     
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LES OVER WESTERN U.P. AND NEAR LAKE               
SUPERIOR EAST OF MUNISING. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY WHICH            
STILL LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.                                            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE            
SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER SOUTH                   
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH WEAKER SHORTWAVES SLIDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT            
LAKES AND SOUTHEAST QUEBEC. A LOW CENTER...WHICH IS PART OF THE                 
LONGWAVE TROUGH...WILL DEEPENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE                  
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND BLANKET MUCH OF              
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND -21C              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS DRY AIR INVADES THE FORECAST AREA WITH            
THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT CAUSED THE                
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS F OVER THE U.P. THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW READINGS INTO THE NEGATIVE VALUES OVER THE FAR             
WEST WILL DIP TO AROUND 15F BELOW TONIGHT OVER THE WEST AND TO                  
AROUND ZERO OVER THE EASTERN U.P. ADVISORY HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED               
FOR TONIGHT TO COVER COMBINATION OF CONTINUED LES/BLOWING SNOW AND              
FALLING WIND CHILLS. MESOSCALE MODEL QPF AND ASSOC SNOW/WATER RATIOS            
SUGGEST TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE            
AREAS BEFORE BACKING WINDS SHIFT LES BANDS OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR               
LATE TONIGHT. INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND WINDS BACKING WEST             
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW                
PENINSULA BY LATE THIS EVENING. WITH THE WEAK SURFACE WINDS THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS WILL            
LOWER INTO THE 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THUS WIND CHILL ADVISORIES            
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE             
TONIGHT INCLUDING DELTA COUNTY WHICH WILL ALSO BE EXPOSED TO COLD               
ADVECTION AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN A WESTERLY FLOW.                          
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS WILL STILL WARRANT ADVISORIES INTO TUESDAY              
MORNING BUT LES AND BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF OVER THE                
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE LATE TUESDAY ALONG THE            
WISCONSIN BORDER FOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW AHEAD            
OF SYSTEM. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A             
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO WISCONSIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG            
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK THROUGH              
THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL                  
INCREASE TO -18C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE                 
SOUTHWEST AFTER THE HIGH MOVES EAST KILLING OFF OF THE LES.                     
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                    
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THIS PERIOD IS                         
DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA. THE                       
CORRESPONDING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN STATES               
WILL MOVE A REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS SEEN ON THE 285K                     
SFC...INTO THE FA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT SOME PARTS OF THE                   
INHERITED FORECAST WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EAST. DECIDED TO                
INCREASE POPS ELSEWHERE. WHILE I DO NOT THINK AREAS WEST OF                     
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES WILL SEE MUCH SNOW/QPF...THINK                 
THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR             
TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS. FOR NOW HAVE A GENERAL 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR                
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM BARAGA TO                        
MARENISCO...AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. AREAS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND            
IN LUCE COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OR CLOSE TO ADVISORY            
CRITERIA. AS FAR AS THE DETAILS GO...PER BUFKIT GUIDANCE...MOISTURE             
PROFILES W.R.T ICE ARE FAIRLY DEEP AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLUMN                
TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN -15...ICE WILL BE DOMINANT IN THE                     
CLOUD...ALSO THE DGZ IS AROUND 10KFT DEEP SO THINK SLR COULD PUSH               
25:1. MODEL DERIVED SLR WOULD SUGGEST RATIOS EVEN                               
HIGHER...30/40:1. HARD TO GO THIS HIGH IN A SYNOPTIC                            
ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP 25:1 FOR NOW. MOISTURE/LIFT/LOW CPD/S WITH              
THIS FEATURE QUICKLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. LES                    
PROCESSES WILL ALLOW FOR -SHSN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND              
AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT                    
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED GIVEN INVERSION HEIGHT BLO 5KFT. HEAVIER LES             
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CANADIAN SHORELINES OF LAKE SUPERIOR.           
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY...BY THURSDAY AFTN...THE                        
STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW/EASTERN CANADA TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE             
NEW FOUNDLAND/CANADIAN MARITIES THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL                      
GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OUT OF THE U.S. CENTRAL PRAIRIES. FOR              
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THAT THIS LOW WILL            
TRACK OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WOULD YIELD A HIGH IMPACT               
HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR THE UPPER PENINSULA. THESE RUNS HAD BEEN                   
THOUGHT TO BE OUTLIERS...AND PERHAPS STILL ARE...THOUGH BOTH THE 12Z            
ECMWF/GLBL-GEM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGH IMPACT GFS                         
SOLUTION...OPTED TO TREND POP UPWARDS...TO 50%...AS A RESULT OF                 
THESE MODEL TRENDS. LITTLE CHANGES MADE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS             
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO AN LES REGIME IN THE WAKE OF                  
WHEREVER THE FRIDAY SYSTEM PASSES.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT CMX...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AS STRONG WESTERLY             
WINDS AND COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR CREATE PLENTY OF LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SNOW SHOULD BLOW AROUND WITH BLIZZARD                 
CONDITIONS OFF AND ON...MAINLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                          
SAW WILL NOT BE NOT BE AS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.             
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS SHOULD STILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW              
AND REDUCE VIS FROM 1 TO 3 SM FROM AT TIME THIS AFTERNOON.                      
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING...AS LAKE            
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS END AND CEILINGS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
GALES WILL CONTINUE...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST                   
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND LOW LEAVES. FREEZING                
SPRAY  WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY                       
MORNING...AS PLENTY OF COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY            
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD QUICKLY SWING                
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY...             
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...AND THE LOWER GREAT                 
LAKES THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS                  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EAST               
COAST FRIDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AGAIN WINDS WILL INCREASE             
TO GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-               
     004-084.                                                                   
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 12               
     PM EST /11 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-011>013-084.                 
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MIZ009-010.                   
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ265-               
     267.                                                                       
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                           
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.               
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265.                         
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY                
     FOR LSZ162-263-264.                                                        
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-263-264.             
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     LSZ245-246.                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-               
     242-243.                                                                   
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM                 
     EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ247>251.                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-249.                    
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY               
     FOR LSZ240>244.                                                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ250.                         
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251.                               
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     LMZ221-248-250.                                                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1236 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON               
BAY. A CLOSED OVER WESTERN OREGON IS SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF               
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE               
LONGWAVE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY                
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER                   
VALLEY. A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTHEAST THROUGH               
KANSAS. TIGHT GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THIS LOW IS                  
CAUSING WINDS TO GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. A               
THERMAL TROUGH WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE LOW CAUSING                      
TEMPERATURE AT 850MB TO DROP TO -24C WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO             
PRODUCE LES OVER WESTERN U.P. AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EASTER OF                  
MUNISING. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY WHICH LIMITS THE                  
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.                                                             
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND -21C OVER WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND TO -19C OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE THERMAL            
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK             
ENHANCEMENT SHOULD EQUATE TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE               
WESTERN COUNTIES FAVORED IN A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE THE                  
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTING             
SYSTEM. STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BOOSTED BY 4-6 MB 3 HR PRESSURE             
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE              
ALMOST A CERTAINTY OVR KEWEENAW PENINSULA TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION             
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS F OVER THE U.P.              
WITH A FEW READINGS INTO THE NEGATIVE VALUES OVER THE FAR WEST. THE             
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND AND LOW TEMPERATURES               
ARE CAUSING BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.               
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT AND LATER                                                  
BLIZZARD CRITERIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ADVISORY               
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT TO COVER COMBINATION OF CONTINUED            
LES/BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING WIND CHILLS. MESOSCALE MODEL QPF AND               
ASSOC SNOW/WATER RATIOS SUGGEST TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES            
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BACKING WINDS SHIFT LES BANDS              
OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON NIGHT.                                          
WIND CHILLS WILL FINAL ISSUE TO DEAL WITH AS TEMPERATURES WILL                  
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE               
HEELS OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND               
WINDS BACKING WEST SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR ALL              
BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BY LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS OF               
10-15 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPS                   
FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15F RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO                
LOWER INTO THE 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE. ISSUED WIND CHILL                     
ADVISORIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER                         
MICHIGAN...EVEN INCLUDING DELTA COUNTY WHICH WILL ALSO BE EXPOSED TO            
COLD ADVECTION AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN A WESTERLY FLOW.                     
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS WILL STILL WARRANT ADVISORIES INTO TUESDAY              
MORNING BUT LES AND BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF OVER THE                
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. 00Z MODELS TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MAYBE                
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE TUE INTO              
TUE NIGHT. TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE TUESDAY ALONG THE            
WISCONSIN BORDER FOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF WAA SNOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM.                
KEPT IN CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY               
NIGHT IN PROXIMITY TO BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH SYSTEM AND                  
TAPERED BACK POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE WEST. LINGERING COLD              
AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -18C AND SLOW REBOUND FROM                  
TONIGHT`S BITTER COLD LOWS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS            
ABV ZERO WEST TO BARELY CRACKING 10F OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.                     
SYSTEM DEPARTS FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST BY WED LEAVING ONLY SOME                     
LINGERING LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW IN THE FAR EAST AND LINGERING LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR IN A W-SW               
CONVERGENT FLOW AND STILL FAIRLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C               
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT CMX...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AS STRONG WESTERLY             
WINDS AND COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR CREATE PLENTY OF LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SNOW SHOULD BLOW AROUND WITH BLIZZARD                 
CONDITIONS OFF AND ON...MAINLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                          
SAW WILL NOT BE NOT BE AS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.             
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS SHOULD STILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW              
AND REDUCE VIS FROM 1 TO 3 SM FROM AT TIME THIS AFTERNOON.                      
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING...AS LAKE            
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS END AND CEILINGS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
GALES WILL CONTINUE...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST                   
TONIGHT. A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS...TO 50 KTS...MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE            
EAST TODAY. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AND REMAIN SO                   
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AS PLENTY OF COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE                
REGION.                                                                         
AT 12Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL               
CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...TO NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE                   
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM WESTERN CANADA TODAY. IT SHOULD THEN SHIFT              
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING TO THE NEW ENGLAND                 
STATES TUESDAY EVENING. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A LOW                 
PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD QUICKLY SWING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI                 
VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES                  
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY EVENING. LOW              
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SHIFT              
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST FRIDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-               
     004-084.                                                                   
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 12               
     PM EST /11 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-011>013-084.                 
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MIZ009-010.                   
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ265-               
     267.                                                                       
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                           
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.               
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265.                         
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY                
     FOR LSZ162-263-264.                                                        
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-263-264.             
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     LSZ245-246.                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-               
     242-243.                                                                   
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM                 
     EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ247>251.                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-249.                    
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY               
     FOR LSZ240>244.                                                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ250.                         
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251.                               
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     LMZ221-248-250.                                                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...VOSS                                                                
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1159 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW...                                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER ON WIND CHILLS THE NEXT 18                       
HOURS...THOUGH ATTENTION IN FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE TURNING TO                    
TUES/TUES EVE SNOW EVENT AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE ONE FOR THU.                 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS 993MB LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO                
CENTRAL ONTARIO. NEARLY 50MB DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND                
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXPANDING OVER THE CTRL PLAINS.                     
RESULTANT WINDS CONTINUE SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING                 
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH                 
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS TO THE                 
START THE DAY IN WEST CTRL MN. WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 25                 
AND 40 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE                 
EARLY MORNING. OVERALL...AIR TEMPS ARE 35 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER                  
ACROSS THE AREA THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO! WHAT A CLASSIC EARLY                    
WINTER CYCLONE.                                                                 
CURRENT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE NEARLY THE SAME IN SPEED AND GUST                 
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AREA AND UPSTREAM WIND PROFILERS                       
MEASURING 925MB WINDS AT 30 KTS AND RUC SOUNDINGS DIAGNOSING                    
CONTINUED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE WINDS WILL VERY                    
GRADUALLY EASE THIS AFTN AND WITH THAT THE BLOWING SNOW SHOULD                  
TOO. 1000-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO PROGGED TO ACCORDINGLY                  
DIMINISH GRADUALLY. SO TEMPS ARE THOUGHT TO BE NEARLY STEADY THIS               
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLIMBING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES THIS AFTN. WIND               
CHILLS THIS ENTIRE TIME THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA               
WITH WARNING CRITERIA CONTINUING ACROSS THE WEST. SO HAVE EXTENDED              
HEADLINES. WRN WI LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH WIND INTO THIS EVE UNDER              
DEPARTING MSLP GRADIENT SO HAVE ADVISORY GOING TO MIDNIGHT IN THAT              
AREA.                                                                           
AIR TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB                
MAGNITUDE MOVES OVER THE SRN CWA. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS IN                    
MN...CLEAR SKIES CWA WIDE...AND FRESH SNOW COVER IN MANY PLACES                 
WILL RESULT IN AN IDEAL SETUP FOR PLUNGING TEMPS BETWEEN 7 PM AND               
9 PM. NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
MN CWA BY 9 PM. FRESH SNOW COVER EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERAL DEGREE              
IMPACT. RECENT LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL RESEARCH WITH A NIGHT AFTER A               
FRESH SNOW AND THESE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS WOULD INDICATE                 
NEAR -18F AT MSP. HAVE GONE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT WITH SOME                  
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS EXPECTED VERY LATE. AREAS OF WEST CTRL MN WITH              
DEEP FRESH SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO -23 TO -28. RECORD LOW MIN              
TEMP AT ST CLOUD FOR TUES MORNING IS -21 IN 1963 WHICH WILL BE IN               
GREAT JEOPARDY.                                                                 
ON THE IMMEDIATE HEALS OF THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL COME A POTENT MID-              
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTHEAST WITHIN THE POWERFUL STATIONARY                
UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR SOUTH ON TUES AND TUES NIGHT. VORT                       
ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG AND FOCUSED                
AHEAD OF THIS. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE POTENT                  
WITH THIS...BUT BOTH THESE...THE 00Z GFS...AND 21Z SREF FAVOR AT                
LEAST SRN MN TO WRN WI TO BE UNDER A CORRIDOR OF SNOW DURING TUES               
AFTN AND EVE. WITH THE SNOW FALLING INTO A VERY COLD AIR                        
MASS...RATIOS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 17:1 IF NOT CONSIDERABLY                
HIGHER. FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES RIGHT NOW WOULD               
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AS TIME APPROACHES AND THE IMMEDIATE WIND                   
CHILL CONCERNS END. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS                   
FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR STATIONARY BANDING MAY ENTER THE CWA AND                 
INCREASE THOSE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALBERT LEA...TO RED WING...TO              
EAU CLAIRE. ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORY AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE                  
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES...BUT AT THIS TIME                   
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. ONE OF THOSE IS A WAVE ON THE POLAR JET TO                
OUR NORTH WHICH DOES MOVE IN DURING THE EVE. THE INFLUENCE THIS                 
HAS ON THE SRN SHORT WAVE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH DURING              
THE LATE AFTN AND EVE. HAVE FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW               
IN THE ENVELOPE OF MOST CONFIDENCE WHICH CONTINUES TO INCREASE.                 
AFTER THAT...A SYSTEM ON THU IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY                       
POTENTIALLY KEEPS OUR ONE SYSTEM-EVERY-36-HOUR PATTERN GOING                    
STRONG. THIS SYSTEM IS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE NOW CLOSED                 
LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS               
HANDLE THIS CONSISTENTLY THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN                    
DIVERGE MID-WEEK IN THE RESPONSIVE LEE-CYCLOGENESIS. 00Z GFS WAS                
AN OUTLIER...BRINGING A LOW ON A VERY INTERESTING PATH FAVORING                 
GOOD SNOW HERE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH               
BRINGING THE LOW INTO SRN IL AND GIVING US BASICALLY NOTHING.                   
ENSEMBLE LEANS TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AT                   
KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE THE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR                  
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BUT TOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GET A              
GOOD HANDLE ON THE GUIDANCE WITH THAT SYSTEM. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT               
THINGS AS IS WITH THE FORECAST DURING THU.                                      
OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH                   
ANOTHER COLD SHOT OF A POTENTIAL SIMILAR MAGNITUDE AS THIS                      
CURRENT ONE BECOMING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SKY COVERAGE DECREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WEST-NORTHWEST                 
WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG WITH 10 TO 15 KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF             
20 TO 25 KTS CONTINUING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM                
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY                       
SCATTERED BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WITH A FEW BROKEN PERIODS IN                 
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI THROUGH                 
MID AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FOUND THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH               
CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE TO 6 KTS OR                  
LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE                  
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 6 TO                
10 KTS ACROSS WEST CENT MN BY EARLY MORNING AND THE REMAINING                   
AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL LOWER                    
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE                
SOUTHWEST. SNOW IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                  
STILL A FEW MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH NORTHWEST EXTENT OF BETTER                 
SNOWFALL BUT PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF KRWF/KMSP/KEAU/KRNH                  
SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT                    
KSTC/KAXN. SNOW SHOULD START AT KRWF DURING THE MORNING AND EXPAND              
NORTHEASTWARD TO KMSP/KRNH/KEAU BY MIDDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END                
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW BUT PERIODS OF CEILINGS              
OF LESS THAN 1000 FT AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 SM ARE LOOKING POSSIBLE                
AT KRWF/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.              
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE SITES BY EARLY/MID EVENING. THANKS TO CWSU         
ZMP FOR THE COORDINATION. ZMP FORECAST THOUGHTS INCLUDED BELOW...               
FROM CWSU ZMP...SYNOPTICALLY WE HAVE AN OCLDD LOW CENTERED N OF                 
LAKE HURON AND A COLD FNTL BNDRY STRETCHING S THRU OH/KY/W TN/SE                
AR/E TX. HI PRES IS RDGG INTO WRN ZMP. THRU TOMORROW THE RDG SHIFT              
RAPIDLY INTO ERN ZMP, ALLOWING A DISTURBANCE TO MOV IN UNDER THE                
RDG AND INTO IA/SRN MN BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.                           
NAM/GFS/MM5 REACHING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS (FINALLY!), WITH NAM LAGGING             
BEHIND THE OTHER TWO SLIGHTLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE               
NEXT SYS. START THE TAF WITH SCT018, THEN GO SKC AFT 00Z. WE SHOULD             
BE SCT200 BY 10Z, AND SCT120 BKN200 BY 12Z. BY 15Z GO BKN100, THEN              
DROP TO SCT020 BKN030 BY 18Z. OVC015-020 SHOULD OCCUR BY 21Z AND                
PERSIST THRU THE WORSE PART OF THE STORM THRU 03Z. AFT THAT WE MIGHT            
EVEN SCT OUT AT THE 020 AND 050 LVLS. SNOW SHOULD START AROUND 17Z              
AND END AT 02Z. ACCUM SHOULD BE 2-3 INCHES. VIS SHOULD STAY AT 3SM              
OR GREATER AS BLSN WON`T HAPPEN WITH THE XPCTD WND SPDS AND LOW                 
ABSOLUTE HUM PROG SHOWS ADDITION OF BR UNLIKELY. WNDS WILL BE                   
280-290 THRU 00Z, THEN GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 12Z AND SSE-LY BY          
00Z. WND SPDS WILL STEADILY DROP THRU 12Z, WHEN THEY`LL BE AT 5 KTS,            
THEN INCRS SLIGHTLY TO 10KT BY 21Z. AFT 21Z THEY GRADUALLY DROP                 
AGAIN TO <5KTS BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.                                   
...MDB/PDP..                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-               
     BENTON-BLUE EARTH-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-                
     GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-                    
     MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-                  
     SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.                            
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-                
     CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-POPE-                      
     REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-YELLOW                        
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-                 
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/MDB/PDP                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
414 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS SNOW               
AMOUNTS WITH QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT                
INTO TUESDAY.                                                                   
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE                  
STRUGGLED TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NE ZONES WITH A FEW             
SITES MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS IN NORTH CENTRAL KS.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1042 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY                    
CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO EASTERN NE. LATEST WATER VAPOR                   
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN OR/NORTHERN CA               
COAST...WITH RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DATA SHOWING NOSE OF 140 KT                 
UPPER JET STREAK COMING INTO SOUTHERN CA AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES            
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THIS FEATURE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL                
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS               
FEATURE.                                                                        
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN              
THE 285-290K LAYER INCREASING AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE                
HIGH. MEANWHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED H3 JET STREAK COMING INTO                    
SOUTHERN CA WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST...WITH THE LEFT EXIT                
REGION OF THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST                   
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z /ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/.               
THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE ENHANCED PURELY DYNAMICAL LIFT PER THE               
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...BUT ALSO GENERATE SOME ENHANCED MID-LEVEL                    
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MOST EVIDENT IN THE H7-H6 LAYER. THE LOWER              
BRANCH OF THE INDIRECT CIRCULATION IN THE EXIT REGION ALSO ENHANCES             
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...WITH THIS ENHANCED FORCING ALL IMPACTING THE              
CWA FROM ROUGHLY 06Z TONIGHT TO 18-21Z TUESDAY. THINK ALL OF THE CWA            
WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW...BUT THE TOUGHEST PART IS NAILING                
DOWN AMOUNTS. THE EASTERN CWA LOOKS TO BE MOST FAVORED FOR THE                  
HEAVIER AMOUNTS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU WORK WEST. QPF AMOUNTS             
WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT SNOW TO LIQUID            
RATIOS WILL BE HIGH. USED A 15-20:1 RATIO IN LINE WITH COBB DATA                
WHICH RESULTS IN TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH IN THE                    
SOUTHWEST TO 3-4 INCHES IN THE EAST. HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER              
ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE ACCUMULATIONS            
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE FORECAST. THE SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND POWDERY             
GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND              
THUS BLOWING/DRIFTING SHOULDN/T BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM. THE SNOW                  
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS            
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY EVENING.                                                   
THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS COLD WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH             
NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL                 
RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE SOUTH TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE                 
NORTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND             
CHILL HEADLINES GIVEN MARGINAL APPARENT TEMPS AND ALSO MARGINAL                 
WINDS WHICH WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD IN THE NORTH              
WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON             
MONDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY BUT                 
STILL VERY COLD AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN ROUGHLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW               
ZERO. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THEN IN STORE AGAIN               
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LOWS.                                                         
.LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH     
TEMPERATURES...AND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID WEEK AND FIRST                
PART OF THE WEEKEND.                                                            
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF QUIET AND DRY...AS LATEST SYSTEM HAS                 
MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS ARE IN                
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ZONAL/SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE               
REGION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING NEAR THE COAST OF CA.  AT             
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA IN THE MORNING...THEN            
GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.  AS IT                
SLIDES EAST...SO DOES THE COLDEST AIR.  AND WHILE STILL CHILLY AND              
BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS WILL FEEL BETTER...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS            
OF THE CWA...AS THEY REACH INTO THE MID TEENS NORTH/LOWER 20S                   
SOUTH.                                                                          
THINGS BECOME MORE INTERESTING DURING THE WED NIGHT/THURSDAY                    
PERIOD...AND WILL STATE RIGHT OFF THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMEFRAME             
AND BEYOND IS LOW.  ONE ASPECT THAT THERE IS A BIT MORE CERTAINTY               
WITH IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WAS OF THE COAST OF CA                
GETS KICKED OUT INTO THE ROCKIES AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE            
PAC NW REGION.  BUT THE TIMING...STRENGTH...PATH...AND ASSOCIATED               
PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPE AS IT MOVES THROUGH ALL CONTINUE TO HAVE                 
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS.  FORECAST IS A BLEND...AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A            
MORE OPEN...QUICKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...VS OTHERS WHICH REMAINS                
CLOSED OFF A BIT LONGER AND THUS SLOWER.  HAVE PRECIP CHANCES MOVING            
IN STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS LIFT AHEAD            
OF THE SYSTEM INCREASES...AIDED BY A 140+KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO              
THE REGION.  HAVE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP COMING DURING THE DAYTIME             
HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF...BUT SOME MODELS HAVE STARTED            
TO TREND EVEN SLOWER...SHOWING PRECIP LINGERING AROUND INTO THE                 
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.  WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT               
BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES.  ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN              
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE.  THERE REMAINS                     
QUESTIONS WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH BY                
THURSDAY EVENING RANGES ANYWHERE FROM A SLOWER/SOUTHWESTERN KS                  
SOLUTION TO A FASTER/NC NEB SOLUTION. MODELS DO AGREE THAT WARMER               
LOWER LEVEL AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE GETS PULLED NORTH THANKS TO                
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH PRESENTS AN ISSUE WITH PRECIP                  
TYPE...BUT QUESTIONS EXIST WITH HOW FAR NORTH THIS WARMER AIR GETS.             
INTRODUCED MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR KS COUNTIES...WHICH              
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE...AT THIS POINT...TO SEE VARYING                  
PRECIP TYPES.  KEPT MENTION OF ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH.  STILL A LOT              
OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE UPCOMING                  
SHIFTS.                                                                         
KEPT FRIDAY DRY...AS THE REGION SITS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  YET                   
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO             
THE LOWER 20S NORTH/NEAR 30 SOUTH.                                              
ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA THIS                
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.                 
THIS IS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...WHICH PUSHES A SFC COLD FRONT             
THROUGH BY SAT MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR QUICK TO BUILD            
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN                
BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MID TEENS                   
SOUTH.  AT THIS POINT...PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW...AND NOT                   
SIGNIFICANT IN REGARD TO AMOUNTS.  MONDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD AS            
CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE             
LOWER/MID TEENS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS TO START THE PERIOD WILL                   
STEADILY WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO                   
EARLY EVENING AROUND SURFACE HIGH. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE                
EARLY EVENING BEFORE SOME MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF                
NEXT FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER              
MIDNIGHT BEFORE LOWER CIGS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AND SNOW MOVE               
IN AROUND 08-09Z. SNOW WILL THEN LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST               
OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE               
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST                  
     TUESDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-063-064-076-077-086-087.                        
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST                  
     TUESDAY FOR KSZ007-019.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1133 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN                 
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE OHIO                    
VALLEY TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SHOT OR                 
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE              
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
BUSY MRNG CONTINUES ON THE FCST DESK. SECOND MRNG UPDATE AS FRNTL               
BNDRY HAS NOW CLEARED EASTERN FCST AREA BORDER. TEMPS HAVE                      
PLUMMETED ALL MRNG...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF A CINCY-                
SPRINGFIELD- MARION LINE NOW NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. MUCH OF THE                
HEAVIER PCPN REMAINS IN WARM ENUF BNDRY LYR THAT IT IS FALLING AS               
RAIN...AND IS NOW LARGELY CONFINED TO ERN 1/3 FCST AREA. PCPN MUCH              
MORE SPOTTY BEHIND MAIN PCPN AREA...BUT ARCTIC AIR HAS RUSHED IN                
SO QUICKLY THAT MUCH OF THIS IS MOST LIKELY FALLING AS SOME FORM                
OF A WINTRY MIX (-FZRA/PL). WHILE PCPN WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT                
PROBLEM THIS AFTN...STILL CONTEST THAT RAPIDITY TO TEMP DROP COULD              
CREATE SOME PROBS ON ROADS/EXPOSED SURFACES FOR FLASH FREEZING.                 
THEREFORE...CHANGES TO HEADLINES THAT WERE INITIATED THIS MRNG                  
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTN (SEE NEXT PARAGRAPH FOR MORE INFO ON                 
THAT). CONTINUE TO LIKE HOW RUC IS HANDLING THE TEMP FALLS THIS                 
MRNG AND HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON IT FOR HOW FAR TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BY              
LATE AFTN. DESPITE MORE AGGRESSIVE TEMP DROP FOR THE AFTN                       
FCST...SHOULD TEMPS FALL FASTER THAN FCST (AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLY                
THAT THEY DO WITH CURRENT TEMPS OVER CNTRL INDIANA AROUND 20 DEG).              
HAVE READJUSTED GRIDS FOR AFTN HOURS...AND THAT REQUIRED TEMP                   
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE EVNG AS WELL.                                              
QUICK GLANCE AT 12Z MODELS SHWNG PLENTY OF VARIABILITY OVER NEXT                
48 HOURS...INCLUDING DIFFERENCES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER SE 1/2                
FCST AREA TONIGHT (NAM MORE ROBUST...GFS WOULD SUGGEST LESS SNOW).              
WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SECOND WAVE TO AFFECT               
REGION TUES NIGHT. AS STATED ABV...NO CHANGES ATTM TO WINTER WX                 
ADV LOCATION AND TIMING OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO AGREE ON A SLOWER                  
ONSET TO ANY DEFORMATION FORCED PCPN OVERNIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT               
WINTRY PCPN HAVING GREATEST IMPACT BTWN MIDNIGHT AND MID MRNG                   
TUES. 12Z OP GFS APPEARS TO SHOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WINNING OUT AND                 
SUPPRESSING PCPN TO SOME EXTENT AS A RESULT. WILL BE LOOKING AT                 
THIS IN MUCH GREATER DETAIL FOR AFTN FCST PACKAGE.                              
ADVISORY INFO FOR AFTN (FROM 854 AM DISCUSSION)...OF MUCH GREATER               
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE ON ROADS/EXPOSED                    
SURFACES DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT NATURE OF THE TEMP FALLS.                       
ESSENTIALLY...THE TEMPERATURE WILL FALL SO QUICKLY THAT WATER ON                
THE ROADS AND EXPOSED SURFACES STAND A GREATER CHANCE TO FREEZE                 
RAPIDLY CAUSING POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE AND SLICK ROADS. INTEND TO              
HANDLE THIS WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT OUT FOR THE                 
ENTIRE AREA...BEGINNING IMMEDIATELY ACRS NW 1/2 FCST AREA AND BY                
16Z FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE                
AND NOT CONFUSE THE PUBLIC...FELT BEST COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO                  
MERGE THE ADVISORIES WE HAD UP FOR THIS MRNG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH                 
AND TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-71 INTO ONE PRODUCT WITH TWO                   
SEGMENTS. THE ADVISORY FOR WINTRY PCPN TONIGHT WILL NOW BEGIN AT                
16Z TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS THIS AFTN.               
THE ADVISORY WILL THEN CONTINUE IN ITS PREV STATE TONIGHT FOR THE               
EXPECTED WINTRY PCPN. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA TO THE                     
NORTHWEST OF I-71 WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY FOR FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL              
NOW THRU 22Z.                                                                   
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                      
MODELS EJECT A H/5 VORT OUT TONIGHT. THIS CAUSES A DEFORMATION                  
BEND TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FA TONIGHT...RUNNING                
ALONG A SDF-CVG-CHILLICOTHE LINE.THICKNESSES SHOULD COLD ENUF FOR               
SNOW...EXCEPT IN KY...WHERE SOME PL IS POSSIBLE.                                
MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT DIFFERENCES...MAINLY IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF             
PRODUCED. THE NAM IS DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW COUNTIES..WHILE               
THE NGM AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WETTER. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE A NICE                   
COMPROMISE...SO LEANED TOWARDS IS SNOW AND QPF. WENT WITH A 2-4                 
INCH SNOW SWATH SURROUNDED BY A 1-3. WENT A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR              
THE SRN 2/3 OF FA.                                                              
THAT ENERGY SLIDES NE OF THE REGION FOR TUE. THERE IS STILL SOME                
LINGERING OVERRUNNING LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE S ON TUE...BUT ONLY              
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNT S EXPECTED.                                                   
THEN NEXT AND STRONGER H5 VORT KICKS OUT OF THE MS VALLEY TUE                   
NIGHT...CAUSING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. WITH ARCTIC AIR IN                        
PLACE...SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER H8 TEMPS WILL                 
RISE QUICKLY ABOVE 0 C AND WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. NAM AND                   
GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL FEATURES...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE               
DEEPER WITH THE LOW. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS...SO LOOKS LIKE A                   
PERIOD OF FZRA UNTIL SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE NW WILL                 
PROBABLY SEE SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET...SINCE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER              
UP THERE. THERE IS ENUF THREAT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR                
TUE NGT.                                                                        
LOW PASSES TO THE E LATE TUE NGT INTO WED. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL                
BE SOME LINGERING PCPN EARLY WED....BUT IT SHOULD END BY NOON.                  
GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW IN THE PLAINS WITH A WRMFNT IN                 
THE OH VLY. THE OLD ECMWF WASNT AS STRONG...SO DISCOUNT THE 00Z GFS             
FOR WED NGT.                                                                    
GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO MAV...SINCE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE               
TRENDED THE FORECAST SOLN CLOSER TO OPERATIONAL ECMWF WITH A HIGH               
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WX                   
SYSTEMS.                                                                        
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS WITH A DEEPENING LOW EJECTING NE FROM THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.                 
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW. THE GFS               
IS QUICKER AND FURTHER N WITH THE LOW. HAVE FOLLOWED THE COLDER AND             
SLOWER ECMWF SOLN BUT OPTED FOR A LTL QUICKER RETURN OF MOISTURE.               
HAVE SPREAD OVERRUNNING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE WED NIGHT INTO                   
THURSDAY. THIS PRECIP WL LIKELY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE                    
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN LATE THUR NIGHT AND              
EARLY FRI PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE HI TO PROVIDE DRY                   
WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ARCTIC FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THRU             
LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD TEMPS AND DRY WX EXPECTED NEXT SUNDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF AND BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING                  
VSBYS TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. FROPA WILL BE ON                
THE WESTERN TAF SITES BORDER AT 12Z AND WORK QUICKLY                            
EAST...THROUGH CMH AND ILN BY 1330Z THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL HANG                
ON FOR A BIT BEHIND FROPA BUT SFC TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW                      
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. CIGS WILL DROP TO THE              
MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT SEE A FEW UPWARD                   
PEEKS WHERE THE LOW SC DECK IS OCCASIONALLY SCT UNDER A BKN                     
6-10KFT DECK.                                                                   
WEST WIND SHIFT WILL ANNOTATE FROPA THIS MORNING. BY EVENING...AN               
UPPER VORT WILL WRING OUT SOME SNOW ALONG AND ESP SE OF I-71                    
CORRIDOR. AM NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF THIS SNOW              
IS BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS COULD ALLOW LOWER SC DECK               
FROM 1-2KFT TO BREAK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESP TO THE NW.                     
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>053-060-061.                                    
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY               
     NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-                  
     077>082-088.                                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ054>056-             
     062>065-070>074-077>082-088.                                               
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY               
     NIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.                                                      
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     INZ050-058-059-066.                                                        
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY               
     NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.                                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ073>075-             
     080.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RYAN                                                                 
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...SITES                                                              
LONG TERM...AR                                                                  
AVIATION...FRANKS                                                               
</pre> oh