FXUS04 KWBC 081936
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
335 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 10/0000 UTC THRU SEP 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY 1...

...MID ATLC STATES/UPR OH VLY NNEWD INTO NEW ENG...

ALL MODELS CONT TO TAKE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRANCES
FROM WRN WV TO WRN AND NRN NY STATE DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  HVY RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR
THE CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY
BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ERN OH AND PA TO PORTIONS OF NY
STATE.  TO THE EAST OF THE FRANCES CIRCULATION...A STRONG
INFLOW OF ATLC MOISTURE WITH A 50KT SLY 85H JET WILL BRING
INCREASING PW VALUES OF OVER 2 INCHES INTO PORTIONS OF NEW
ENG...WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL BNDRYS
EVIDENT ACROSS SRN NEW ENG.  IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ETA
FCST...EXPECTING GENERALIZED 2-3 INCH RAIN AMTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST FROM ERN OH TO MAINE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS ALONG THE TRACK OF FRANCES THROUGH WRN PA AND WRN
NY....AND ACROSS THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF NRN NY AND NEW ENG.
THE HIGHER GFS AMTS OVER NW PA AND WRN NY SEEM A LITTLE HIGH
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.  THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS ACROSS
MAINE WITH THE GFS FASTER TO SPREAD HVY AMTS ACROSS THE STATE
ON THURS ALONG INVERTED TROF EXTENDING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. 
USED A COMPROMISE AS THE ETA APPEARS SOMEWHAT SLOW TO
PROGRESS THE MOISTURE THRU MAINE IN THE STRONG WARM ADV
PATTERN.

...PAC NW...

PAC SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS B.C. WHERE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME LGT RNFL OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NRN CASCADES UNDER SOME
MODEST HGT FALLS AND 20+ KTS OF WLY LOW LVL ONSHORE FLO.

...FL...

AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES WITH PWS AROUND 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE
OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA AND REMAIN
NEARLY STNRY.  ISOLD HVY AMTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS.  
               
DAY 2...

...NORTHEASTERN U.S...

MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THE SLOWLY  WEAKENING
REMNANTS OF  FRANCES N...THEN NNE...JUST W OF THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL /NRN APLCNS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE RIGHT SHOULD COME DURING THE DAYTIME FRI AS FRANCES  COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER
OF FRANCES  WILL BE EXITING NRN NEW ENG EARLY FRI.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION ALONG A  TRAILING  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE N ATLANTIC COAST IS LIKELY
TO BE HEAVIER  THAN PORTRAYED BY EITHER THE ETA OR
GFS...CONSIDERING PRESENT RADAR IMAGERY. THE GFS SHOWS A LOW
LEVEL JET AND 2 IN PWS JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUPPORTING THIS REASONING.  

...S ATLANTIC COAST...

THE ETA AND GFS ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY 500MB  HEIGHT FALL IN
THIS REGION AS  THE SHORTWAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES
LIFTS NE FRI INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY.  ALSO...THEY SHOW THE WRN
ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE HANGING TOUGH. THEREFORE... HPC IS SLOWER
TO CLEAR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE  OUT OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THAN THE GFS.  WE EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF PCPN THRU THE
CAROLINAS...COASTAL GA...AND FL TO LOOK MORE LIKE THAT OF THE ETA 
 
BUT MORE CONCENTRATED THAN THE ETA ALONG THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS....EXTENDING SSW INTO W CENTRAL FL. 

...S TX COAST...

ETA/GFS   MOVE SOME MOISTURE INTO FAR S TX BUT GFS APPEARS
OVERDONE.   IN HINDSIGHT...MAN GRAPHIC IS PROBABLY TOO WET ALSO.  

....NRN PLAINS...

MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT THE
GFS PW FORECAST SUGGESTS ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING FOR SOME
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN ND INTO EXTREME
NW MN.  

...PAC NW...

GFS/ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE COASTAL RANGES OF WA FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
HVY PCPN.   MAN QPF LOOKS CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN THE  ETA IN THIS
AREA. 

HEDGE/FLOOD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 503696 500686 497678 491665 484652 480645 476642 473640 
      467641 460634 456632 454633 446639 439650 435655 432662 
      426671 414677 408680 400687 386703 379711 373717 368721 
      362727 351732 335740 325747 318752 308759 302767 296775 
      289781 270789 258800 251807 249812 248816 246824 244833 
      241846 239857 239860 240865 260862 266861 270859 274853 
      282839 288831 296820 310812 324806 338798 341797 345795 
      348796 352797 356802 358806 357812 354832 357836 361836 
      369836 387836 397836 401835 408835 413833 418829 426822 
      430818 434813 438809 441807 455792 463783 470778 479773 
      489763 494756 498751 501746 504735 506725 506715 504706 
      503696 
 0.01 535220 538212 539203 539194 538190 533178 529169 524160 
      517153 510147 508145 507138 504127 502122 499120 493121 
      492125 491132 491139 489145 487151 485157 482160 481169 
      483172 486173 489179 489188 492193 499195 504198 509202 
      515209 522227 524232 528233 531230 533225 535220 
 0.01 520269 521264 522259 520253 516243 506221 500209 497205 
      495204 492205 474207 471206 468209 464213 458215 455215 
      452219 455224 459226 462228 465227 464231 460233 455235 
      454239 457243 463245 474248 479252 482256 488265 494273 
      499278 505279 509278 514277 520269 
 0.01 266974 263971 261968 257967 249969 242972 237974 234976 
      233979 232983 238987 244989 249990 254988 254983 256979 
      261975 266974 
 0.25 491701 489692 485683 479673 473665 468660 465657 457654 
      452655 448657 434674 400700 384722 368745 347761 327779 
      314794 323794 338782 350774 365771 376778 377783 378791 
      382798 384802 386808 388816 393827 397828 401828 408826 
      413824 420818 427811 435802 442793 454778 462768 470759 
      479750 485742 489731 492720 492707 491701 
 0.25 533210 533200 532193 530189 527182 522174 516167 511165 
      509165 504169 503171 503178 506183 511190 516197 521206 
      524212 528216 531214 533210 
 0.25 514266 516262 515257 513252 512246 510241 505229 503224 
      500219 496215 491214 485214 481216 482219 487223 490225 
      493230 497241 501252 503258 506263 510266 514266 
 0.25 285811 284807 281807 275805 268805 263806 258809 254815 
      254823 255829 258834 261837 264837 272834 278830 281825 
      284818 286813 285811 
 0.50 483697 481690 478683 472674 467668 460663 453663 448666 
      444670 439676 431683 414694 408699 405703 401708 398715 
      395724 391739 389744 386750 384753 384758 388765 391776 
      397794 396802 393811 393814 395821 401824 405824 409822 
      414820 418816 425809 431802 441788 454773 465758 480741 
      484732 486724 486715 485706 483697 
 0.50 509255 510249 508242 505237 503232 501227 499222 494221 
      495227 497232 500237 502243 504248 507254 509255 
 0.50 277821 276818 275817 273816 272815 269814 268814 266814 
      263814 260815 258818 258822 258825 260827 262830 265831 
      267831 268831 270830 273829 274828 275827 277824 277822 
      277821 
 1.00 470688 467681 461675 456674 449677 427697 419703 414707 
      410714 408720 403736 401748 400755 401766 405781 406792 
      405799 399812 400817 403819 406818 413815 418811 429799 
      436789 441782 447775 454765 465751 475740 479734 482729 
      482723 479714 474705 470688 
 1.50 464744 468740 468733 467730 461729 457727 454717 455711 
      458708 462703 463693 462687 458683 452682 445686 438693 
      429707 423714 418718 415722 413726 411734 410740 413747 
      420752 422757 416770 414779 412787 408800 404809 404814 
      407814 414810 418805 429792 439779 449767 457754 464744 
 2.00 457689 453687 450688 447689 444692 442695 441697 440698 
      439703 443704 444704 446704 448702 451700 453698 454696 
      455694 457689 
 2.00 426737 429739 433745 437749 442745 443734 445730 441724 
      435718 425722 421724 420725 420731 421734 426737 
 2.00 444767 448758 447753 443752 440755 433763 431764 426769 
      422775 417786 413795 409804 408808 411809 415804 421797 
      426790 433782 440771 444767  
 
24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 514670 510649 500623 490606 485602 479599 465605 453617 
      434643 426653 419662 415668 407675 401682 393689 374709 
      370714 350736 329760 314777 300792 285798 268796 259794 
      252796 246800 242804 235815 233820 232824 232828 234831 
      237832 241831 251827 250849 248885 247920 253934 266926 
      270899 273886 276873 283850 287844 291844 292848 293858 
      292864 292878 292888 293894 298892 305884 307879 308873 
      310846 311838 315833 327823 336813 347799 362779 372769 
      377763 383763 389764 391768 393773 393783 389789 379798 
      372805 369807 368811 370817 374815 388808 402800 413792 
      430782 439778 447774 454769 461767 471762 480756 484750 
      491744 494741 496737 499730 506716 511698 513687 514677 
      514670 
 0.01 559891 560840 552805 545800 530818 516843 502877 488917 
      483935 479950 477957 477964 474982 469012 468020 468024 
      470029 471035 474042 477048 479056 483071 488085 492090 
      497094 500095 502095 505091 511079 512072 514062 515044 
      515033 517024 518015 521010 527998 532985 536977 538968 
      544955 549941 550933 553925 554917 557907 559891 
 0.01 536216 538207 538197 536191 533179 519155 504145 495147 
      488154 484162 483169 484174 488187 487192 480196 476198 
      472199 465205 460212 458214 454216 452218 451222 453228 
      453231 448233 443237 440239 440242 443245 447247 446254 
      445258 442261 439265 438272 439276 441281 446288 450292 
      453295 461300 464300 468298 472297 477297 494303 498304 
      502304 506301 509298 511290 514286 517277 525252 531231 
      534220 536216 
 0.01 278968 277960 271948 262946 252957 250972 259987 269989 
      275980 277975 278968 
 0.25 510675 507652 500630 494618 487610 484607 481606 476608 
      472610 465617 458625 451635 445644 438655 433661 429665 
      414681 406689 397697 377718 343755 326777 315789 310795 
      298806 293808 288810 279810 264810 261814 262820 265829 
      263844 268843 273839 279837 285836 301833 308828 316822 
      328810 340796 350782 366756 377744 388735 403728 411725 
      415724 418726 421729 422736 422741 420747 416754 414759 
      413767 417770 425770 435767 442764 451758 463754 474748 
      479744 485739 491731 496721 501712 506700 508691 510675 
 0.25 553823 551820 548814 542820 536829 531838 513875 508886 
      504896 498915 493938 491948 489961 482006 482014 482024 
      485034 487038 491041 494042 498041 500037 502028 503017 
      504010 505005 509994 513984 517978 527959 532949 536939 
      540931 550900 551900 555877 555857 555846 554831 553823 
 0.25 532209 533202 531195 529189 524178 520172 514166 508164 
      503163 501164 499170 501176 506183 511189 515195 519205 
      522211 525214 529213 532209 
 0.25 517263 516256 515252 516248 516243 514238 509226 502216 
      497208 491206 491205 482206 474211 470213 465221 468224 
      468228 464230 459232 456233 454235 452239 460246 462250 
      460257 455265 452272 453279 457284 461287 470285 479286 
      490289 499291 504291 508288 510284 511278 512270 517263 
 0.25 267978 270974 271968 267963 264962 262962 260963 259963 
      257966 257967 256970 256973 258975 259975 261978 263978 
      264978 267978 
 0.50 505657 504648 501639 495626 491620 487616 484613 480613 
      471619 463628 455637 450647 448652 446657 441665 432674 
      424682 393710 384719 382722 380725 381728 385728 390726 
      398723 409718 418713 425709 431709 434711 434717 434724 
      432734 428742 426752 426757 427761 435760 440757 442754 
      448747 452744 457743 464745 468745 473744 478739 487729 
      493720 498712 502702 506688 507678 507666 505657 
 0.50 551830 550825 549822 549826 549831 551831 551830 
 0.50 523944 529933 542904 549885 551847 549834 544834 534850 
      530859 522875 516888 513894 509904 504919 500940 496962 
      497986 501988 509973 515964 518958 521950 523944 
 0.50 514262 512256 510250 508237 504225 499216 496212 491210 
      482211 475216 478219 484222 483225 480227 476229 471230 
      467232 462233 458235 457239 462242 465247 466259 468266 
      470268 477265 483264 486264 490266 494272 498282 500286 
      503287 505286 508282 508276 507263 514262 
 0.50 500251 499246 498246 497245 498246 500251 500251 
 0.50 349771 349767 347766 342769 337777 325790 312803 305810 
      296817 288821 279821 272819 270820 273822 285832 292831 
      296829 301828 306825 314819 321813 328806 334798 340790 
      344783 348775 349771 
 1.00 502655 500646 497640 495634 493631 490629 484627 479630 
      474634 467644 462652 457661 449671 445679 449686 453692 
      455698 460711 462718 465723 471726 479726 483724 488720 
      493711 498701 500692 502681 503670 502659 502655 
 1.00 505277 504266 498255 492244 490239 488237 484237 480235 
      476233 473233 469236 468239 469242 476251 484256 490260 
      492263 496268 499274 501280 504281 505277 
 1.00 503238 503235 503233 501228 499223 499222 496220 493221 
      493226 494230 495231 497236 499239 502239 503238 
 1.50 496650 493645 491641 487637 482639 476646 470658 470667 
      473676 473691 472706 473711 476712 480716 484715 487713 
      490706 496691 500678 500669 500664 498659 496650 
 1.50 495258 494253 492247 488242 486241 484243 481241 478237 
      473237 472241 475244 477247 482251 487256 490258 495258 
 2.00 497669 496665 494663 490661 487663 485667 484672 483681 
      484687 484691 487694 491692 494688 496681 497675 497669 
 2.00 490252 489249 486247 483249 485251 488252 490252  
 
$$