AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
339 PM MDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TNGT AND SAT)                                                                  
TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE MAIN CHALLENGE LATE THIS AFTN AND               
EVE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS/FOG                
ACROSS THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY LATE TNGT-SAT MORNING.                         
CURRENTLY...LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HAND-ANALYZED SURFACE CHART                 
SHOWED OLD STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALONG THE ERN CO                     
MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING INTO NERN NM AND PANHANDLES OF OK/TX. SURFACE            
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/60S ACROSS ERN CO...AS THE BKN-OVC IFR-MVFR               
STRATUS/FOG BURNED OFF BY MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF                
SERN CO....BUT IS STILL HANGING ON NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTN.             
RATHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE              
CNTRL ROCKIES PER H5-H3 LAYER VORTICITY AND H3-H2 POTENTIAL                     
VORTICITY POSITIVE VALUE LOBE RUC ANALYSES. MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR             
AXIS WAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON. SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE            
FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DRYING               
ALOFT AND VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DATA BARELY SHOWING ANY CLOUD            
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CO MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS...EXCEPT            
FOR FEW-SCT CU OVER THE SWRN MOUNTAINS. LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW...               
EARLY THIS AFTN...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CU FORMING OVER OUR ERN                 
MOUNTAINS...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH IS VERY LIMITED AND LENDING MORE                 
TOWARDS STRATO-CU. MODERATE TO TOWERING CU DEVELOPMENT IS WAY BEHIND            
CLIMATOLOGY RIGHT NOW...SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH SHOWER/TSTM WILL FORM              
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT AROUND THE NM-CO BORDER. STILL...THERE              
IS RESPECTABLE SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE            
AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WINNING OUT ACROSS THE SERN CO              
PLAINS DESPITE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. AROUND 1950Z...                
FIRST CELL WENT UP JUST NE OF KTAD IN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.                        
LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6-12                
HOURS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING ERN CO BY            
EARLY THIS EVE WITH SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER MUCH OF CO TNGT. MY FEELING             
IS THE GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE JUST N OF            
THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS ACROSS NERN NM-OK/TX PANHANDLES.                  
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA FORMING OVER NERN NM AND             
THIS IS PROBABLY THE INITIATION-ZONE...ALONG NM/CO BORDER AND SWD.              
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS TO GO ACROSS EXTREME               
SERN CO...IF THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN BY THE               
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. CONVECTIVE               
PARAMETERS STILL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS               
ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. IF ALL CONDITIONS CAN COME                 
TOGETHER AND TSTM CELLS GET ANCHORED ON A BOUNDARY...THERE COULD BE             
A TORNADO ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES GIVEN THE LAPS AND                
NAM12 LAYER SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE POINTING TOWARDS ERN             
LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES FOR A NEAR TERM TORNADO THREAT AREA.               
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO EVOLVE INTO A NOCTURNAL                
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO-NERN NM-OK/TX                
PANHANDLES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK(15-20KTS) H85-H8 LOW LEVEL            
JET STREAK DEVELOPING AND MOISTURE/THERMAL POSITIVE ADVECTION                   
PROCESSES LEADING TO LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ON THE N SIDE OF THE              
STATIONARY FRONT.  STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO CELLS TO FORM            
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT THE PROBABILITY LOOKS                
PRETTY LOW.  MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF                 
IFR-MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO FORM OVER THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY AFTER               
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS.  SFC-PBL LAYER HUMIDITIES ARE                
PROGGED TO BE 85-100 PERCENT. THINK THE THERMAL/TERRAIN DRAINAGE                
WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD KEEP ANY STRATUS OUT OF THE                  
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...BUT COULD FORM/ADVECT INTO THE PUEBLO AREA              
JUST AROUND SUNRISE.                                                            
SAT...SCT-BKN IFR-MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY BE ACROSS THE SERN CO PLAINS             
AND SHOULD BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...IF IT FORMS. HARD PRESSED TO                
FIND A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE DIURNAL                 
CONVECTIVE ENERGY AVAILABLE SAT AFTN. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT                  
SOMETHING FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFTING INTO THE ADJACENT             
VALLEYS/PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG NM/CO BORDER. SPC DAY 2 HAS MUCH              
OF SERN CO OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THE NW FLOW ALOFT                    
JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE               
GIVEN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR...CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL                  
ENERGY OF 1K-3K J/KG...AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT               
WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE POSSIBLE ROTATING            
STORMS. METZE                                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                 
STILL LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS PREVIOUS RUNS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL           
BUILD OVER COLORADO BRIEFLY THIS WEEKEND TO BRING BRIEF WARMING/DRYING.         
STORMS WILL TEND TO BE ISOLATED SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY.              
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ON              
THE PLAINS (HOT). THEN...AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES...SUBTROPICAL                     
MOISTURE WILL WORK UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE...WRAPPING INTO                 
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONSEQUENTLY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                
WILL GO UP AGAIN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A LITTLE                     
(ALTHOUGH REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE). THIS PATTERN PERSISTS INTO                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
NEXT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO COME THROUGH LOOKS TO ARRIVE                
TUESDAY NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING/DRYING               
STARTS AGAIN. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF SUBTROPICAL                
MOISTURE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE COLLIDING WITH A PASSING                 
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...INTERACTS              
WITH THE NORTHERN SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION AND SEND              
IT SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE EASTERN PLAINS THEN REMAIN                  
UNDER MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEHIND THE FRONT.                    
SO...IF ALL THIS PANS OUT...WE MAY END UP WITH A COUPLE MORE DAYS               
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINS. ADDITIONALLY...DEPENDING ON                     
FRONTAL INTENSITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES...COULD BE LOOKING AT                 
MORE SEVERE WEATHER TOO. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED. LW                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD AFFECT KALS...KCOS...AND KPUB AIRPORT                 
TERMINAL AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS...BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO                      
35KTS/ERRATIC WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL UNTIL 02Z...BUT THE PROBABILITY            
IS PRETTY LOW(5-15 PERCENT).  KALS AND KCOS WILL HAVE NEARLY VFR                
CLEAR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES             
IN ALOFT AND KCOS THERMAL/TERRAIN NELY DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOP AFTER             
MIDNIGHT. SOME IFR-MVFR STATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE KPUB                
TERMINAL AREA...AND SERN CO PLAINS BETWEEN 06Z/25-17Z/25. METZE                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/50                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
222 PM MDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED BEHIND DEPARTING COLORADO TROUGH.  SHALLOW              
CONVECTION NOTED ON THE 1930Z VISIBLE IMAGERY...BUT THESE CLOUDS                
ARE CAPPED FROM DRY SUBSIDENT AIR.  THE LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES A            
FEW SHOWERS WILL FORM NEAR THE DIVIDE INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN                    
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED              
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR WILL END            
AT SUNSET AS THERE IS NO UPPER AIR SUPPORT.                                     
SATURDAY...SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA              
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MEANING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS               
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY.  THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL             
CAP AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE SAN             
JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER FOR POP AND DROP               
ISOLATED STORMS.                                                                
CHANGES WILL BE UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY AS EASTERLY WAVES (INCLUDING                 
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT WAS HURRICANE DEAN) CIRCULATE AROUND                 
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH INTO ARIZONA.  MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL BE                   
SPREADING FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE 12Z MODEL DATA               
DID NOT INDICATE MUCH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN             
SPITE OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE            
INCH OVER SE UTAH.  THE DEEPER MOISTURE HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER THE               
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  THE FORECAST GRIDS WILL INDICATE AN INCREASE OF             
CLOUD COVER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.                     
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                     
MAIN AREA FOR FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB                  
TROPICAL MOISTURE...REMNANTS FROM DEAN...BEING PULLED OVER EASTERN              
UT AND WESTERN CO. SLIGHT VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE MOISTURE PUSH              
BETWEEN MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE BEST CONSENSUS                
BEING SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO FLOW OVER THE                   
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY             
TO TREND TOWARD THIS INFLUX BUT NOT READY TO JUMP CATEGORIES YET.               
ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY PERIOD.              
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES                 
ALSO ROTATE OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR            
CORNERS REGION TUESDAY WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE HELPING WITH AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST            
WITH THE CENTER SETTING UP SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA...WHICH WILL LEAVE              
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW                
ALOFT BY MID WEEK. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH DIURNAL                   
CONVECTION FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OF                  
WESTERN COLORADO UNTIL 03Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY               
CLEAR CONDITIONS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...PF                                                                 
LONG TERM...AS                                                                  
AVIATION...PF                                                                   
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
322 PM MDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                            
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING INTO NW CO ATTM WITH ASSOC 70 KT UPPER            
JET EXTENDING ACROSS NRN CO.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL LYING                   
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO            
FIRE ALONG THE NRN FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF THE TROF...AND ALONG THE                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.  SFC DEW POINTS HAVE             
BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SE CO BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH VALUES                  
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WITH SHORTWAVE TROF                     
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BOTH NAM AND RUC (WHICH DIDN/T                      
INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION IN 12Z RUNS) BOTH INDICATE            
FALLING SFC PRESSURES ALONG THE SRN BORDER...WITH FRONT LIFTING BACK            
TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTN AND STALLING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY            
LATE AFTN.  LATEST MSAS PRESSURE CHANGE CHARTS ARE STARTING TO                  
INDICATE SOME FALLING SFC PRESSURES SOUTH OF PUEBLO...SO THIS MAY               
INDEED BE OCCURRING...BUT THINK THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL END UP               
BEING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z NAM12 AND RUC RUNS SUGGESTED.             
18Z RUC4/NAM12 RUNS SEEM TO HAVE FINALLY LATCHED ON TO FARTHER                  
SOUTH FRONTAL POSITION KEEPING IT ALONG THE SRN TIER COUNTIES                   
THROUGH THE AFTN WHICH LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.  NORTH OF THIS                    
BOUNDARY SBCAPES ARE 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF 40-55             
KTS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL               
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.  LATEST 18Z RUNS SUGGEST MORE               
CIN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED...BUT              
WITH APPROACHING TROF...UPPER LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE            
CAP EVENTUALLY...THOUGH TIMING OF UPPER TROF WOULD SUGGEST A LATER              
START TO CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL FARTHER EAST.   SO SVR THREAT              
WILL INITIALLY START OUT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS AND             
ALONG THE SRN BORDER AFTER 21Z...THEN SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT                  
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WITH LOW LVL WINDS                   
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY...0-1KM HELICITIES MAY APPROACH AROUND 80-120            
M2/S2 ACCORDING TO 18Z RUC AND NAM ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE              
SE MTS. SO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESP ALONG THE PALMER            
DVD WHERE T/TD SPREADS MAY BE AROUND 20-25 DEGREES OR LESS.                     
HOWEVER...TORNADO THREAT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.                      
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS ACROSS EC CO AFTER 03Z WHICH MOVES            
EASTWARD INTO KANSAS AFT MIDNIGHT.  WITH UPPER TROF TRAILING ACROSS             
CO OVERNIGHT...KEPT POPS GOING THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE             
AREA.  BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE SE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.                  
FOR FRIDAY...UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...WITH                  
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY CAPPED ACROSS             
THE FAR SE PLAINS...AND AM HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY SHORTWAVES TO               
PROVIDE MUCH FORCING.  HOWEVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...DEW POINTS             
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...YIELD SOME HEALTHY CAPES OF 2000-3000             
J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS.  0-6 KM SHEARS STILL               
AROUND 30-35 KTS...SO ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS                
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MTS/ADJACENT                
PLAINS.  HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE SCT CATEGORY FOR THESE AREAS.             
FARTHER EAST CAP IS STRONGER...AND WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW                   
QUICKLY STRATUS BREAKS FRI MORNING...AND HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN BE            
REALIZED.  FOR NOW...KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS FOR THE EASTERN                    
COUNTIES.  AIRMASS DRIES OUT FARTHER WEST...SO THUNDERSTORM THREAT              
SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER. -KT                                                       
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
IN A NUTSHELL...WEAK UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER COLORADO                 
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT STILL              
NOT VOID OF ALL THUNDERSTORMS.  LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL BREAK                
OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY                  
SPREADING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT                
APPEARS THAT A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE (REMNANTS OF DEAN?)                 
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING                 
PRECIP ODDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND IN ALL AREAS              
ON MONDAY. TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AGAIN...FOR A                  
WARMER AND DRIER DAY. THEN...IF THE GFS40 PROVES CORRECT...A                    
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY                  
NIGHT...FOR A RETURN TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS AGAIN                      
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALL OF THIS IS A LONG WAY OFF AND VERY                  
UNCERTAIN...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. TEMPERATURES WILL                  
LIKELY RANGE FROM NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS                  
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LW                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN TAF SITES (KCOS               
AND KPUB) AFTER 22Z...WITH SLOWER START TO THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED            
DUE TO SLOWER WARM UP.  HOWEVER...HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN                        
DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH                     
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO           
A COMPLEX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO AND MOVE INTO KS OVERNIGHT.                    
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE PLAINS AS STRATUS            
BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.  STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF ON FRI            
BY 17-18Z...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE              
EASTERN MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS.  LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN                
DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH                     
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FRI AFTN.                   
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/50                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
329 AM MDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE EVENING DROVE A COOL           
FRONT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACCORDING TO             
LATEST RUC ANALYSES. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED                
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO             
THE NORTHERNMOST REACHES OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.                        
MODELS INDICATED THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.              
CONSEQUENTLY...CAN EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LIFT             
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES FOCUSED ALONG SURFACE               
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF COLORADO AND                 
UTAH THROUGH MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ROLL ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL WARMING IN                 
COMBINATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL YIELD INCREASED ACTIVITY...              
STILL MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. SURFACE MOISTURE LIMITING              
FACTOR FOR MORE ENERGETIC STORMS...THOUGH DESPITE THIS SHORTCOMING              
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES NEARING 1000 JOULES/KG WITH DECENT STRAIGHT LINE           
SHEAR. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO LONG-LIVED STRONG STORMS.             
TROF DEEPENS IN THE EVENING SPREADING CONVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN              
PORTION OF THE CWFA...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF             
THE DIVIDE FRIDAY MORNING FURTHER DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.              
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS                
ALONG THE DIVIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS             
TO RETURN.                                                                      
TEMPERATURES LARGELY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY WHILE READINGS           
COOLING ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ACROSS THE NORTH. NEAR                
PERSISTENCE ON FRIDAY...THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH. OVERNIGHT                 
LOWS WILL RUN COOLER TONIGHT...MODERATING SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT.             
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                      
W-NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SAT. TEMPS TO            
REBOUND FROM FRI.                                                               
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WHEN...AND HOW MUCH...MOISTURE               
MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO               
BRING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DEAN UP AROUND THE WEST END OF A BROAD              
E-W RIDGE...AND ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO SUN NIGHT AND MON. HARD TO                 
IGNORE THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...THOUGH             
APPEARS MODEL TREND MAY BE TO TAKE REMNANTS FARTHER WEST BEFORE                 
SWINGING THEM BACK NE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND EXTRAPOLATING                
CURRENT TRACK OF DEAN ON IR/WVAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS MIGHT SUGGEST THAT           
THE BULK OF MOISTURE CONTINUES OUT INTO PAC. STILL...SOME NORTHWARD             
SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEMS REASONABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW                
WEAKENS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION THIS WEEKEND. MADE LITTLE                
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS AS A RESULT...KEEPING  LOW-END                 
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT-MON. MON TEMPS ESPECIALLY            
LOOK COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.                                     
UPPER LEVEL HIGH VACILLATES OVER THE SWRN U.S. TUE-WED WITH SOME                
MOISTURE PERSISTING IN W-SW FLOW. BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION                 
TOWARD MIDWEEK WILL BE REALIZED WITH SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES...WHICH           
AT THIS TIME REMAIN UNRESOLVED. SO WILL BROAD BRUSH FOR SCATTERED MTN           
POPS AND A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO                
SEASONAL NORMALS OR ABOVE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING NORTH OF             
THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MORE WIDESPREAD IN              
THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. STORMS             
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL. A            
FEW STORMS MAY GENERATE LARGE HAIL. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EXPECT           
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IN THE                 
EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL              
DIVIDE BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TOWARD THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER.            
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NL                                                                 
LONG TERM...JAD                                                                 
AVIATION...NL                                                                   
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
710 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL            
RIDGE BREAK DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES                  
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO THE               
WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS              
REMAINS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES                  
KEEPING LOW LEVEL FLOW RATHER LIGHT.                                            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                   
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN                     
REDEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN                     
FLORIDA BIG BEND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME THE STORMS WERE ON             
THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE WITH SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL             
REPORTS. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY THE EARLIER                    
CONVECTION AND HAVE SEEN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION               
REALLY DROP OFF IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO HOURS. AREAS OF CONCERN                  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE SOUTH-CENTRAL GA AND               
THE EASTERN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. THESE AREAS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY               
CONVECTION FREE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HENCE HAVE NOT STABILIZED AS            
MUCH AS OTHER AREAS. ALSO WILL SEE COLLISION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY             
FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND THE EAST COAST                      
SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS. LIKELY             
WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW STORMS GO UP AS A RESULT OF THIS                        
COLLISION...BUT THE GENERAL TREND FROM THIS POINT ON SHOULD BE FOR A            
CONTINUED DECREASE IN CONVECTION. ALSO WATCHING A LINE OF STRONG                
STORMS UP TOWARD THE ATLANTA AREA SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH AND                      
SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS QUITE A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE REACHING OUR             
ZONES AND THE GOING FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THESE STORMS TO                     
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR NORTHERN GA ZONES.                                
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SEA-BREEZE                
CONVECTION FROM EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR MOST                               
TERMINALS ACROSS THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE VLD AND ABY WHERE                   
BOUNDARY COLLISION DURING NEXT FEW HOURS LIKELY TO TRIGGER SOME                 
NEARBY TSRA. WILL KEEP AT LEAST VCTS IN FOR THESE SITES FOR A FEW               
HOURS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE MOST             
OF THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY BY                
MORNING ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS                     
AFTERNOON. BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE                
LIKELY TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
AROUND.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM               
LINGERING ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES. WILL STILL RUN THE RISK OF A FEW                 
SHOWERS/STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE FROM THE BIG BEND INTO APALACHEE              
BAY THIS EVENING. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS MAY                 
BRIEFLY GUSTS UP ABOVE 20 KNOTS...AND OF COURSE LIGHTNING WILL                  
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. AFTER MIDNIGHT WOULD EXPECT MORE SCATTERED             
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST                  
WATERS AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE                    
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. SCATTERED MORNING CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY                 
DIMINISH. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.              
LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL LAND BASED SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN TO MIGRATE             
INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING                
HOURS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  73  92  73  91  74 /  20  60  30  50  40                           
PANAMA CITY  78  91  77  91  78 /  20  50  30  50  40                           
DOTHAN       74  93  74  93  75 /  20  50  30  40  40                           
ALBANY       75  94  74  93  74 /  20  60  30  40  40                           
VALDOSTA     73  92  73  92  73 /  30  60  30  50  40                           
CROSS CITY   73  91  73  92  74 /  30  60  30  60  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MROCZKA/CAMP                                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
705 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE              
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH AN AXIS RUNNING FROM             
NORTHWEST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SURFACE RIDGE IS FIRMLY            
IN CONTROL NOSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE WESTERN                 
ATLANTIC.                                                                       
DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY                
FROM THE BIG BEND UP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ARE SEEING SOME             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME.              
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND ARE GENERALLY               
FIRING ACROSS THE REGION NOT EFFECTED AND SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY                
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING`S MCS THAT EFFECTED OUR NORTHERN AND                
WESTERN ZONES. A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE                 
BECOMING RATHER STRONG AND MAY HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE ISSUES ACROSS               
OUR EASTERN GA/BIG BEND ZONES THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH              
THINGS VERY CLOSELY AS INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE HIGH AND THE UPPER             
RIDGE RETREATING SLOWLY WEST IS MINIMIZING THE CONVECTIVE                       
SUPPRESSION. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WE ARE LOOKING AT                
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOW THAT THE LINGERING HIGH LEVEL                 
DEBRIS FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE                 
WEST. THIS CLOUD KEPT TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY BELOW EXPECTATIONS              
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER READINGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REBOUND THE            
PAST FEW HOURS INTO THE UPPER 80S.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WDLY SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE...                 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...             
AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF            
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS BOTH FOR THE                       
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALSO FOR AREAS OF MIST OF FOG THAT WILL DEVELOP             
BEFORE SUNRISE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE               
RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL              
AREAS AFTER SUNRISE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RUNNING FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST              
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AWAY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW CLOSE TO THE            
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE. SEAS RUNNING                    
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. SHOULD SEE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE            
EAST AND NORTHEAST ALL AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED                     
SHOWERS/STORMS SEEN OFF THE PANHANDLE COASTLINE WILL BECOME MORE                
SCATTERED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY                
MORNING HOURS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MROCZKA/DUVAL                                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
837 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE              
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG COASTAL                  
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW REMAINING OFF                 
THE ATLANTIC. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF POP FARTHER INLAND ALTHOUGH                
WILL BE WATCHING CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR               
AUGUSTA TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH IT MOVES. RUC SHOWS THE CONVECTION                 
HOLDING OVER INTERIOR GA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOVEMENT TOWARD              
THE COAST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID                
70S ACROSS MOST LOCALES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                   
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE                    
FORECAST AREA. WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EARLY             
AND PUSH INLAND QUICKLY MUCH LIKE TODAY. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS                
GOING DURING THE MORNING FOR COASTAL AND FIRST TIER OF INTERIOR                 
ZONES...AND KEEP EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA RAIN FREE. IN              
THE AFTERNOON WILL CARRY CHC POPS MOST ZONES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE            
COAST/BEACHES WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.                           
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND FAST SEA BREEZE PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SHOULD             
ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE ONE              
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHERE AN                   
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM CAN/T BE RULED OUT WITH STEERING FLOW REMAINING              
OFF THE ATLANTIC. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO                 
TODAY...MAXING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. A HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS                    
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME AS HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105                   
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE               
70S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHILE MODELS                   
INDICATE A WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE WASHING OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.            
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REINTENSIFIES JUST WEST OF THE AREA                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE             
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AND THE INTERACTION WITH                 
THE SEA BREEZE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A TEMPO MENTIONED FOR                 
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES BY THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOULD SEE A REPEAT                
OF SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH CB MENTIONED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.       
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH                 
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED                              
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT                 
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KT                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE              
PERIOD. WILL DROP THE SCEC FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AND MAINTAIN 4               
FT FOR THAT ZONE. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE               
THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                              
MARINE ZONES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH               
MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS A0B 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET.              
WINDS AND SEAS MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE SLIGHT NOCTURNAL SURGING OVER THE                
COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.                                    
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PY                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
344 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD                  
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TREK SOUTHWARD ACROSS              
OUR NRN SC ZONES THIS MORNING. MORE ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE                    
DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS              
AND STORMS ARE DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY                   
RESIDING ABOVE A THETA-E RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE CONVERGENT FLOW.              
BOTH THE RUC AND THE NAM-12 EARLIER SHOWED AN AREA OF CONVECTION                
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS SEEMS TO BE                          
MATERIALIZING. MORE STORMS REMAIN N OF THE AREA ACROSS NE                       
SC...SLOWLY PUSHING S. 00Z KCHS SOUNDING SHOWED -6.5C 500 MB TEMP               
AND A 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF 6.1 C/KM. MORE CONVECTION WILL                   
LIKELY FIRE ALONG EXTENSIVE BOUNDARIES...BE THEY ACTIVE OR                      
REMNANT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH 12Z.                         
A LULL IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING BUT ANOTHER                   
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK                  
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA...WHILE LOW-                   
LEVELS STAY MOIST WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ROBUST SEABREEZE DEVELOPS IN              
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AROUND 850                 
MB. EXPECT TODAY/S CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE SIMILAR TO WED WITH                 
SCATTERED CELLS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPANDING IN                    
COVERAGE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE COME INTO PLAY.                
WILL CARRY SOLID CHANCE POPS TODAY MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE                     
IMMEDIATE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM TODAY                     
DESPITE THE DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE 70S. LOWER THICKNESSES SHOULD               
YIELD HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY/S READINGS...KEEPING                
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...                          
FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT A TAD E WHILE THE                  
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS W. ANOTHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED               
WITH 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS               
BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL BE WARMER WITH STRONGER                
CAPPING...STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO              
DEVELOP. TEMPS TO BE COMPARABLE TO THU WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN                  
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL               
BE FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA SEVERAL DAYS...MAINLY FAR                    
INLAND ZONES WHERE HIGHEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. COOL FRONT TO                    
APPROACH FROM THE N LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER STRONG RIDGING IN              
PLACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT IT FROM MAKING IT AS FAR S AS OUR AREA                
BEFORE WASHING OUT. CLIMO POPS/TEMPS MON THROUGH WED.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
MUCH OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TODAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE               
CONVECTIVE DAY AROUND BOTH OF OUR MAJOR AIRPORTS. MAIN PROBLEM AT               
THE CURRENT TIME IS THE SELECTION OF A MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME                   
WINDOW. STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH THE CHS TERM ALTHOUGH              
THE STRONGEST CORES HAVE GONE TO THE W. CONTINUED BUILDING ALONG                
AN EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW MAY WELL BRING TSRA THROUGH CHS TERM IN THE                
NEXT TWO HOURS. TEMPO/D TSRA THROUGH 09Z. KSAV MAY SEE STORMS                   
DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE                
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION INTERACTS.                                   
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH                 
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLD AFTN/EVNG SHOWER              
OR TSTM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TSTMS JUST INLAND APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPETUS FOR YANKING                
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING.                
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON COASTAL WINDS THIS                  
MORNING WITH LIGHT S AND SW FLOW CURRENTLY...SHIFTING ONSHORE                   
QUICKLY TODAY. WE TEND TO LIKE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER SURGES DISPLAYED             
BY THE NAM.                                                                     
SEAS AND SWELL COMPONENT GRADUALLY BUILDING TODAY INTO TONIGHT                  
BUT THE SEAS LIKELY TO STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA UNLESS MORE SURGING                
THAN FORECAST OCCURS. MOST OF THE TRENDS FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS                
WERE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST.                                                  
RIP CURRENTS...WITH INCREASING AFTN ONSHORE FLOW AND SWELLS ALSO ON             
THE INCREASE WITH AN ADDED GROUND SWELL...WE HAVE INDICATED A                   
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTN OR                   
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE TIDE HEADED OUT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL/24                                                                          
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FLOODED AREA IN NRN IL APPEAR TO GET A REPRIEVE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.            
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS YDA HAVE SWEPT BOUNDARY SWD THRU AREA. THIS                 
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SBN TO BMI WHERE TSTMS HAVE BEGUN FIRING.              
CONTD CLOUDY CONDS NORTH OF THERE HAVE SUBDUED DAYTIME HEATING BLO              
CONVECTIVE TEMP AROUND 80. TEMPS SOUTH OF CLOUD COVER AND BOUNDARY              
REACHING MID 90S. SO FAR SO GOOD. FIRST UPR WAVE MOVING NE FROM STL             
LIKELY TO FOLLOW PATH OF CURRENT CONVECTION IN IROQUOIS AND BENTON              
COUNTIES IN FAR SRN CWA. SVR TSTM WATCH JUST GOING OUT FOR FORD TO              
JASPER COUNTIES IN SERN PART OF CWA. MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AFTER             
6PM REST OF CWA TO THE NORTH...BUT THINK THAT SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN            
SOUTH.                                                                          
FLOODING IS NEXT ISSUE. COUNTIES IN WATCH CAN HANDLE MORE PCPN THAN             
NORTH SO THINGS ARE WORKING OUT WELL SO FAR. HOWEVER NOT TAKING MUCH            
TO RETURN FLOODING OR SUBDUE WATER RETREAT IN ALREADY SATURATED                 
NORTH SECTIONS. LATEST UPDATES FOR EXCESS RAINFALL HAS REMOVED HIGH             
RISK OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THE MAP AND REDUCED TO MODERATE WHILE                   
SHIFTING AXIS FROM CHICAGO TO LASALLE TO GARY TO LACON. WAUKEGAN TO             
ROCKFORD ON NORTH NOW OUT OF EVEN SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAIN.                    
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE NOW DROPPED SOUTH AS WELL...CLEARING THE                
MAJORITY OF NE IL WITH NRN EXTENT OF MODERATE THREAT FROM SBN TO                
BMI. AREAS NORTH OF CHI TO LASALLE LINE EVEN OUT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR             
SEVERE.                                                                         
COLD FNT IN WISCONSIN WAITING TO DROP DOWN INTO IL OVERNIGHT. THIS              
AWAITING MAIN UPR TROF MOVG INTO MS VLY ERY SAT MRNG. SECOND WAVE OF            
STORMS MOVING INTO NRN IL AHEAD OF UPR TROF NEAR MDNGT BUT SHUD BE              
SUBDUED ENUF TO LOSE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT MAY DROP A QTR TO               
HALF INCH OF RAIN EVEN IN NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. SHUD SEE END OF               
STRONG CONVECTION WITH FROPA BUT STILL LEAVING RISK OF SHOWERS SAT              
UNTIL UPR TROF CROSSES THRU FCST AREA SAT EVENING. SFC HI PRESSURE              
BLDG IN SAT NGT AND DROPPING WINDS TO L/V WHILE CLEARING SKIES. WITH            
GROUND MSTR ABUNDANT AND CLR SKIES...SHUD LIKELY SEE FOG DEVELOP.               
POST FRONTAL DEWPTS ONLY LOWERING INTO UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...SO                  
HUMIDITY HOVERING NEAR THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE.                                 
NEXT THREAT OF RAIN LATE TUE NGT OR WED...SO HAVE A FEW DAYS TO DRY             
OUT BEFORE NEXT ONSLAUGHT.                                                      
RLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
100 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN AVIATION FOCUS WILL BE ON CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND              
THEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.                 
COMBINATION OF GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND MOIST LOW LEVELS HAVE               
ALLOWED MVFR CIGS TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EXPECTING             
THESE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...BUT WITH             
DIURNAL WARNING SHOULD TEND TO SEE THESE CIGS LIFT TO HIGHER END                
MVFR IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES/MCV`S WILL NEED TO            
BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST OF            
THESE SHORT WAVES IS ENTERING FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AT THIS TIME WITH              
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THUNDER HAS BEEN                    
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AS THIS SHORT WAVE ENTERS A                  
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SPC RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS               
INDICATE AN AXIS OF MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM                  
EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY INSTABILITY             
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS                     
AFTERNOON...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND MID/UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE            
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH             
MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY                 
SATURDAY MORNING WILL HOLD ONTO SHOWER MENTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE              
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY               
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD. ON            
SATURDAY...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS             
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.                                                  
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
250 PM CDT                                                                      
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT               
LAKES REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN               
HALF OF THE LAKE TO SHIFT WESTERLY THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST                   
OVERNIGHT. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY             
MORNING...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE                
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH                 
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WINDS              
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS                
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAY GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY GIVEN NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.               
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE                
EAST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.              
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.              
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING FROM WAVE AFTER WAVE             
AFTER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE SEEN A GENERAL                    
WEAKENING TREND IN CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AND             
A DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER               
CONVECTION CONTINUES NONETHELESS. PROFILER DATA SHOWS 40 TO 50 KNOT             
850 JET FROM TX AND OK ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO AND IL. GFS HAS THE 850            
JET WEAKENING AND TURNING MORE WLY INTO CENTRAL IL AND IN THIS                  
MORNING. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER NRN IL              
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER WRN NE               
AND KS. THIS IS APPARENTLY FIRING LINEAR MCS FROM NE KS AND NW MO               
INTO SRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ENE INTO CENTRAL IL AND THE              
SOUTHERN PART OF CWA TODAY. MODELS BRING SHORT WAVE THROUGH IL BY               
EVENING. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL              
FALL BUT WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OUTFLOW DOWN               
INTO CENTRAL IL AND CURRENT TRENDS OF RADAR...WOULD EXPECT THE FOCUS            
FOR HEAVIEST RAIN AND BEST SEVERE THREAT TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PART             
OF CWA GENERALLY SOUTH OF A PIA TO CHICAGO LINE. AXIS OF HIGHER                 
THETA E ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS WELL. HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER              
STILL AROUND 2 INCHES OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND ALREADY SOGGY             
GROUND...WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH                
TONIGHT.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES COULD GO ANYWHERE. CLOUDS AND REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE               
CARCASS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE AND HEATING...BUT SOME BREAKS COULD                 
ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO MID OR UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN                
PART OF CWA. BUT EXPECT MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.            
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE             
REGION. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AS ADVERTISED BY MOS FOR THE                 
WEEKEND WOULD BE DELIGHTFUL...BUT LOTS OF STANDING WATER EVERYWHERE             
MAY KEEP HUMIDITY UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL IT SHOULD BE                    
CONSIDERABLY MORE PLEASANT THAN ITS BEEN. BRING ON THE MOSQUITOES.              
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.                                                    
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
100 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN AVIATION FOCUS WILL BE ON CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND              
THEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.                 
COMBINATION OF GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND MOIST LOW LEVELS HAVE               
ALLOWED MVFR CIGS TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EXPECTING             
THESE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...BUT WITH             
DIURNAL WARNING SHOULD TEND TO SEE THESE CIGS LIFT TO HIGHER END                
MVFR IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES/MCV`S WILL NEED TO            
BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST OF            
THESE SHORT WAVES IS ENTERING FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AT THIS TIME WITH              
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THUNDER HAS BEEN                    
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AS THIS SHORT WAVE ENTERS A                  
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SPC RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS               
INDICATE AN AXIS OF MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM                  
EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY INSTABILITY             
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS                     
AFTERNOON...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND MID/UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE            
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH             
MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY                 
SATURDAY MORNING WILL HOLD ONTO SHOWER MENTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE              
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY               
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD. ON            
SATURDAY...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS             
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.                                                  
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
1015 PM CDT                                                                     
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM               
EASTERN LAKE HURON...THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN SOUTHWEST            
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN                   
TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP THIS EVENING. A SURGE OF COOLER               
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRIVE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS...                      
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 25KT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  PERIODS OF STRONG            
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEED THE FRONT...OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE            
LAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING            
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY THEN             
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS                    
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND MOVE OUT            
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW                    
PRESSURE OF 29.6 INCHES DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                      
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.              
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.              
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
750 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED EASTWARD OF FWA. JUST OFF AND ON RAIN              
SHOWERS IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE FOR FWA. LOOKING AT RADARS...THERE              
ARE SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MOVING                      
NORTHEASTWARD...SO MADE THE TEMPO GROUP FOR FWA FOUR HOURS LONG.                
THE RAIN SHOWERS AT FWA COULD DROP CONDITIONS OFF AND ON DOWN INTO              
MVFR. HARD TO SAY YET AT THE MOMENT IF ANY MORE CONVECTIVE                      
ACTIVITY FOR LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING SOME                 
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THE RUC DOES NOT MOVE THIS                 
INTO SBN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WITHOUT THE FRONT BEING TO                
THE EAST OF THE AREA...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR               
LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADARS FOR ANY FURTHER                  
DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY AMENDMENTS TO THE TAFS. WITH THE FRONT                      
PROGGED TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST TOMORROW...THE WIND WILL BE TURNING              
TO THE NORTHWEST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.                                              
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE AROUND TIL THAT FRONT                   
FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE CWA TOMORROW. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON                 
INTO THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH                  
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL                 
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS              
UP IN THE TWO TO TWO AND A HALF INCH RANGE. CAPE VALUES ARE UP TO               
2000 J/KG. LIFTED INDEX VALUES DOWN TO NEGATIVE SIX. TOTAL TOTAL                
VALUES UP TO 55. SWEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 445. SO THE ATMOSPHERE                
IS DEFINITELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE WIND FIELD                
FROM THE SURFACE UP IS FAIRLY UNIFORM IN TERMS OF DIRECTION BUT                 
THERE IS DEFINITELY A DIFFERENCE IN SPEED. MID LEVELS ARE PROGGED               
TO BE UP TO AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH JUST ABOVE THAT AROUND 60 TO 70                
KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TO KEEP ANY               
STORMS GOING. THEN ROUGHLY AFTER MIDNIGHT RAIN CHANCES DECREASE                 
SOME...BUT LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE...UNTIL THAT FRONT MOVES ON TO THE              
EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT                   
FRONT HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL THIS PAST WEEK IN GIVING US SHOWERS                 
AND STORMS. BY 12Z SATURDAY A LOW IS PROGGED TO BE JUST NORTHEAST               
OF DETROIT WITH THE FRONT RIGHT THROUGH OUR CWA. THEN BY 00Z                    
SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE                    
MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. WITH THE EXPECTED LARGE                   
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS                         
EVENING...ADDING TO THE FLOODING PROBLEMS ALREADY IN THE CWA...THE              
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED INTO TONIGHT.                               
LONG TERM...TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.                                      
BREAK IN HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND RAIN TO BEGIN EXTENDED PERIOD. SFC               
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE SUNNY             
DAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO              
EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN GRADUAL WARMING            
TREND WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90F RANGE BY TUE. NEXT FRONT TO ARRIVE             
ON WED BRINGING CHANCE OF SH/TSRA TO THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS              
INDICATING BONAFIDE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS TO COME IN BEHIND THIS                
SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WX AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION AS 850MB            
TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 10C BY NEXT FRIDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR                   
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ077>081.                  
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-          
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOTHAMER                                                           
LONG TERM....LOGSDON                                                            
AVIATION...LOTHAMER                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
705 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 0Z TAFS.                                             
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND APPROACH OF MID LVL WAVE OVR W              
IL WL CONT TO FORCE TSRA ACRS THE AREA. CHALLENGE WL BE TIMING OFF              
AND ON. MAIN UPR WAVE AND COLD FRONT WON/T MOVE THRU TIL LATE                   
TOMORROW MORNING SO THESE COULD SPAWN MORE TSRA DURING THE                      
OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. WL TIME IN CURRENT TSRA AND TAKE A SHOT AT             
THOSE STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE ST LOUIS AREA BUT ONLY PUT IN SHRA FOR            
TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG AROUND NEAR/AFTER FROPA.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DAYTIME/...                                   
KIND 88D IS QUIET FOR THE MOMENT.  A FEW TSRA WERE POPPING UP OVER              
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITHIN THE WATCH BOX THERE.  TSRA TIMING AND FROPA            
ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS.                                             
LAPS DATA SHOWS LIS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WHILE SBCAPES HAVE                    
INCREASED TO 1500-3200 J/KG.  A 17Z ACARS OB SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL                
INVERSION HAS ERODED BUT H7 TEMPS STILL REMAIN WARM AROUND 11C.  SPC            
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS GENERALLY DECREASING CIN BUT STILL SOME                 
LINGERING AT 18Z.  A FEW STORMS IN ILLINOIS CLOSE TO THE INDIANA                
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED LIKELY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS.             
THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER ON THIS                 
EVENING.  WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE CWA BEFORE 21Z.  AFTER               
THAT A LINE OF STORMS WILL PASS THROUGH WITH DAMAGING WIND AND VERY             
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.                                                     
A COLD FRONT WAS OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS              
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  WILL MOSTLY LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RUC FOR FROPA             
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT             
AND INTO SATURDAY.  THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BY LATE                
SATURDAY EVENING AND END MOST OF THE RAINFALL.                                  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WITH RAIN EXPECTED.               
ON SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED TEMPS WILL STAY                
UNDER 90 FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                   
WL KEEP SLGT CHC OF TRW`S IN SATURDAY EVE AS THE UPR TROF MOVES ACRS            
AND THE CD FNT SETTLES S OF THE OH RVR. AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE A                
PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WX AS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE ERN CONUS               
WITH RIDGING ALOFT MOVING ACRS THE OH VLY AND A DRY COLUMN WITH MN              
LVL RH FM 30-40% THROUGH TUE. CHC OF TRW`S AGAIN BY WED IN NW FLOW              
REGIME. WL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS SEEN IN                 
CURRENT POST FRONTAL SFC OBS. MOS NUMBERS REFLECT THIS WELL AND ARE             
PRETTY CLOSE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648                
UNTIL 11 PM EDT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CP                                                                   
SHORT TERM...SALLY                                                              
LONG TERM...MK                                                                  
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
245 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DAYTIME/...                                   
KIND 88D IS QUIET FOR THE MOMENT.  A FEW TSRA WERE POPPING UP OVER              
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITHIN THE WATCH BOX THERE.  TSRA TIMING AND FROPA            
ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS.                                             
LAPS DATA SHOWS LIS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WHILE SBCAPES HAVE                    
INCREASED TO 1500-3200 J/KG.  A 17Z ACARS OB SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL                
INVERSION HAS ERODED BUT H7 TEMPS STILL REMAIN WARM AROUND 11C.  SPC            
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS GENERALLY DECREASING CIN BUT STILL SOME                 
LINGERING AT 18Z.  A FEW STORMS IN ILLINOIS CLOSE TO THE INDIANA                
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED LIKELY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS.             
THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER ON THIS                 
EVENING.  WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE CWA BEFORE 21Z.  AFTER               
THAT A LINE OF STORMS WILL PASS THROUGH WITH DAMAGING WIND AND VERY             
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.                                                     
A COLD FRONT WAS OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS              
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  WILL MOSTLY LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RUC FOR FROPA             
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT             
AND INTO SATURDAY.  THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BY LATE                
SATURDAY EVENING AND END MOST OF THE RAINFALL.                                  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WITH RAIN EXPECTED.               
ON SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED TEMPS WILL STAY                
UNDER 90 FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                   
WL KEEP SLGT CHC OF TRW`S IN SATURDAY EVE AS THE UPR TROF MOVES ACRS            
AND THE CD FNT SETTLES S OF THE OH RVR. AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE A                
PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WX AS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE ERN CONUS               
WITH RIDGING ALOFT MOVING ACRS THE OH VLY AND A DRY COLUMN WITH MN              
LVL RH FM 30-40% THROUGH TUE. CHC OF TRW`S AGAIN BY WED IN NW FLOW              
REGIME. WL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS SEEN IN                 
CURRENT POST FRONTAL SFC OBS. MOS NUMBERS REFLECT THIS WELL AND ARE             
PRETTY CLOSE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PD WILL BE            
DRY BUT TSRA WILL MOVE INTO LAF...HUF...IND AND EVENTUALLY BMG IN               
THAT ORDER.  A FEW THINGS ARE WORKING AGAINST EARLY AFTERNOON                   
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THAT IS CURRENT ACARS DATA SHOW AN                   
INVERSION HANGING ON AROUND 900-950MB...CIRRUS OVERHEAD SEEMS TO BE             
THICKENING KEEPING SOMEWHAT OF A LID ON INSTABILITY AND 700MB TEMPS             
ARE ANYWHERE FROM 11C-12C WHICH IS WARM FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT.  THE              
RUC SEEMS TO BE CATCHING THE BITS OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN                   
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL USE THAT AS A GUIDE FOR TIMING                  
CONVECTION INTO THE TAF SITES.                                                  
THE RUC FORECASTS CAP EROSION NEAR LAF BY 21Z SO WOULD EXPECT TSRA              
TO BE IN THE AREA BY THEN.  AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER AND MORE              
CAP EROSION OCCURS WILL INCLUDE TSRA IN HUF AND IND BY 23Z-24Z AND              
INTO BMG BY 01Z.  AFTER 01Z TIMING WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT AND                   
AMENDMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY TO UPDATE ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND                
MOVEMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTION.                                                 
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO               
THE DAYTIME.  FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF            
THIS TAF VALID PD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALLY                                                     
LONG TERM...MK                                                                  
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
120 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
MOSTLY VFR FORECAST IN STORE EXCEPT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH.            
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PD WILL BE            
DRY BUT TSRA WILL MOVE INTO LAF...HUF...IND AND EVENTUALLY BMG IN               
THAT ORDER.  A FEW THINGS ARE WORKING AGAINST EARLY AFTERNOON                   
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THAT IS CURRENT ACARS DATA SHOW AN                   
INVERSION HANGING ON AROUND 900-950MB...CIRRUS OVERHEAD SEEMS TO BE             
THICKENING KEEPING SOMEWHAT OF A LID ON INSTABILITY AND 700MB TEMPS             
ARE ANYWHERE FROM 11C-12C WHICH IS WARM FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT.  THE              
RUC SEEMS TO BE CATCHING THE BITS OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN                   
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL USE THAT AS A GUIDE FOR TIMING                  
CONVECTION INTO THE TAF SITES.                                                  
THE RUC FORECASTS CAP EROSION NEAR LAF BY 21Z SO WOULD EXPECT TSRA              
TO BE IN THE AREA BY THEN.  AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER AND MORE              
CAP EROSION OCCURS WILL INCLUDE TSRA IN HUF AND IND BY 23Z-24Z AND              
INTO BMG BY 01Z.  AFTER 01Z TIMING WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT AND                   
AMENDMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY TO UPDATE ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND                
MOVEMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTION.                                                 
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO               
THE DAYTIME.  FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF            
THIS TAF VALID PD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS TODAY AND POPS INTO SATURDAY.                        
AT 06Z AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS CUTTING THE FORECAST AREA /FA/ IN                
HALF WITH MODIFIED AIR TO THE N. TSRA WERE DEVELOPING IN WARM                   
ADVECTION ABOVE THE MODIFIED AIR ACROSS NWRN FA. TSRA WERE ALSO                 
STRUNG OUT FROM KS NE INTO IL. UPPER WAVE WAS ACROSS ERN CO.                    
MODELS STRUGGLING WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT LATELY AND EACH SUFFER FROM             
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THUS MODELS ARE UNRELIABLE FOR DETAILS.             
WILL USE A GENERAL BLEND OF MAJOR FEATURES BUT RELY ON NO SPECIFIC              
MODEL FOR FORECAST.                                                             
UPPER WAVE ACROSS CO WILL MOVE NE DURING THE DAY TODAY. UPPER WINDS             
SHOULD BACK THIS MORNING AND CAUSE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT              
NORTH FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER...BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT TSRA TO SHIFT             
SE ONCE AGAIN AS WAVE GETS CLOSER AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO               
MOVE SE AS WELL. THUS PLAN TO HAVE POPS ALL DAY ACROSS NWRN FA AND              
SLOWLY INTRODUCE THEM SE DURING THE DAY...COVERING ROUGHLY THE NWRN             
HALF OF THE FA BY 00Z. VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP            
KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY ACROSS SERN FA. THE POPS END UP BEING HIGHER             
THAN MAV FOR NWRN FA. COULD BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NRN FA PER            
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN WILL              
ALSO BE A THREAT WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES AS WELL.                  
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIER TODAY AS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST              
MAY HELP SLOW TEMP RISE TODAY. HOWEVER ANY SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST                
TEMPS QUICKLY...SO WILL KEEP HOT FORECAST TODAY. WILL GO FROM LOWER             
90S NWRN FA TO NEAR 100 ACROSS FAR SRN FA...SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S               
READINGS. THESE ARE SIMILAR TO MAV/MET NUMBERS MOST AREAS. DEWPOINTS            
WILL AGAIN BE LOWER ACROSS SRN FA DUE IN PART TO CONTINUED DRY                  
CONDITIONS THERE. THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW                   
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH NO HEADLINES BUT WILL                     
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO/SPS.                                                           
ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND KEEP THREAT FOR             
TSRA ACROSS ENTIRE FA. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS NWRN FA AS TSRA SHOULD             
BE NUMEROUS ALONG FRONT LIKE TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD                     
ELSEWHERE DUE TO TIMING OF FRONT/S ARRIVAL. WENT A LITTLE WARMER                
THAN MAV WITH CLOUDS AROUND AND NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS.                      
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE FA ON SATURDAY...SO WENT CHANCE POPS              
ALL AREAS. WITH FRONT AND RAIN AROUND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. MAV               
LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN FRONT AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO WENT A            
LITTLE COOLER.                                                                  
NOT SURE THAT SAT EVENING WILL BE DRY ACROSS SRN FA...BUT CONFIDENCE            
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD POPS IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF                  
FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SFC              
HI PRESSURE IN CONTROL.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...SALLY                                                                
PUBLIC...CS                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1019 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAINLY UPDATED TO KEEP THE WORDING FRESH. THE THUNDERSTORM                      
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THE TIME                  
BEING AND NOT TOO MUCH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING ON AT                 
THE MOMENT ON RADARS TO THE WEST. WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE                   
AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO                    
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. STORMS                  
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOSE ARE                 
THE TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 701 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007/                                
DIFFICULT SHRT TERM FCST. MCS TRAIN STRETCHING FM NW MO INTO NRN                
IN DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. HWVR STOUT SW TROUGH EJECTING              
OUT OF KS WILL REACH SRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. DEEPENING SFC                
WAVE PASSING NORTHWEST OF TAF SITES SUGGESTS RAPID DESTABILIZATION              
SHLD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTN PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION UPSTREAM              
ACRS IL. BEST GUESS AT TIMING INTO KSBN LOOKS TO BE NR 21Z AND BY               
23Z AT KFWA PER 09Z RUC/NSSL 4KM WRF. UPSTREAM MID LVL SPEED MAX                
UNSEASONABLY STG AND GIVEN DEGREE OF ASCENT AHD OF UPR TROUGH AND               
XPCD INSTABILITY WILL TEMPO PD OF MVFR IN +TSRA LT AFTN/EVENING                 
W/PREVAILING MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THEN VFR LOOKS TO in                   

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
701 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DIFFICULT SHRT TERM FCST. MCS TRAIN STRETCHING FM NW MO INTO NRN IN             
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. HWVR STOUT SW TROUGH EJECTING OUT             
OF KS WILL REACH SRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. DEEPENING SFC WAVE               
PASSING NORTHWEST OF TAF SITES SUGGESTS RAPID DESTABILIZATION SHLD              
OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTN PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION UPSTREAM ACRS              
IL. BEST GUESS AT TIMING INTO KSBN LOOKS TO BE NR 21Z AND BY 23Z AT             
KFWA PER 09Z RUC/NSSL 4KM WRF. UPSTREAM MID LVL SPEED MAX                       
UNSEASONABLY STG AND GIVEN DEGREE OF ASCENT AHD OF UPR TROUGH AND               
XPCD INSTABILITY WILL TEMPO PD OF MVFR IN +TSRA LT AFTN/EVENING                 
W/PREVAILING MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THEN VFR LOOKS TO SUFFICE. in          

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
150 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS WILL BE SHRT/WV OVER IOWA AND ASSOCIATED                    
CONVECTION ON THE IL/IA BORDER AT 1730Z.  GFS AND NMM WRF MODELS                
BOTH PROG CONVECTION TO MOVE NE THROUGH NRN IL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN              
DESPITE BEST THETA E AND DEWPOINT AXIS WITH A MORE W-E ORIENTATION              
OVER NRN IL AND NRN IN.  BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY                          
TRENDS...BELIEVE CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO AT LEAST CLIP SBN SO              
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN TAF STARTING AT 23Z.  PUT CB IN BOTH SBN AND              
FWA AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE NEARBY.  IF DEVELOPING LINE OF T-STORMS             
OVER IA TRACKS MORE ERLY OVER RICHER INSTABILITY...WILL NEED TO ADD             
THUNDER TO FWA.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  OTHER THAN THAT...ADDED             
GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGHER WINDS TO              
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE TO TAKE MORNING WORDING OUT AND REMOVE ALL POPS                          
TILL THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FROM MCS THIS MORNING HAS MOVED               
WELL NE.  STARTED POPS A FEW HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AS RUC40              
HINTING AT CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z AND BELIEVE THIS IS POSSIBLE              
WITH GOOD SKY CLEARING THIS MORNING ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO HEAT             
AND DESTABILIZE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SKY GRIDS TWEAKED DOWN A               
BIT ALSO AS ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING AROUND.               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY FOCUS ON TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT. PAIR OF MCS TO AFFECT                    
PRIMARILY NRN CWA THIS AM. FIRST STRONGEST ACRS NERN CWA                        
ASSOCIATED WITH 5H MID LVL SPEED MAX AROUND 55KT PER KIWX                       
VWP...FURTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITH KLOT                
8-5H PROFILE SLIGHTLY BACKED/STRENGTHENED FLOW. FURTHER SOUTHEAST               
DEVELOPMENT ON FLANK/TAIL OF LEAD MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE                          
VORTICITY...HOWEVER WITH STABILIZATION OF BL IN WAKE OF FIRST                   
SYSTEM AND MINIMAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS ANY TSRA TO                
REMAIN WELL BLO SEVERE LIMITS. THEN A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF NO                  
DISCERNIBLE LOW/MID LVL FOCUS FOR TSRA UNTIL STRONG ENERGY DIGGING              
ACRS INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO WESTERNMOST PORTION OF BROAD 5H                 
TROF EXTENDING ENE TO WRN GRTLKS BECOMES FOCUS FOR UPSTREAM TSRA                
GENERATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL                
AXIS INTO OHIO VALLEY TO PUSH NWD AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY                
FROM MET GUIDANCE IN LWR 90S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTHERN CWA...MAV                
SHOWING TYPICAL WARM BIAS OF LATE. SOAKED GROUND/STRONG                         
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC DPS ALREADY IN                  
UPPER 60S/LWR 70S TO PUSH HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100 SOUTHERN                     
CWA...AND WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO/WEBSTORY. LATER TONIGHT WITH                      
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BACKED/STRONG 8H JET TO FOCUS                    
STORM INITIATION ACRS IA/NRN IL LATE AFTERNOON. THEN INTO CWA                   
LATER IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ENEWD MID                   
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 55KTS ACRS SWRN MI. WITH STRONG           
HELICAL HODO COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE POOL OF DOWNSTREAM CAPE IN                 
EXCESS OF 3KJ/KG...CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS ACRS NRN CWA LATE                  
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NO MENTION OF SEVERE AND LESSER POPS FURTHER                 
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT WEAKER DEEP LAYER                    
SHEAR...FURTHER REMOVED FROM LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/POOL AHEAD                 
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NORTHWEST AND REMOVED FROM MID LEVEL                     
HEIGHT FALLS FOR FOCUSED ASCENT. SINGLED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A                 
BIT HIR POPS GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND YET ANOTHER                
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MS VLY MEAN TROF.                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
`                                                                               
UPDATE/AVIATION...LAMMERS                                                       
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM....MURPHY                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1040 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE TO TAKE MORNING WORDING OUT AND REMOVE ALL POPS                          
TILL THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FROM MCS THIS MORNING HAS MOVED               
WELL NE.  STARTED POPS A FEW HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AS RUC40              
HINTING AT CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z AND BELIEVE THIS IS POSSIBLE              
WITH GOOD SKY CLEARING THIS MORNING ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO HEAT             
AND DESTABILIZE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SKY GRIDS TWEAKED DOWN A               
BIT ALSO AS ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING AROUND.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STG LL WAA OVERTOP POST OUTFLW BUBBLE CONTS TO SPRT RENEWED                     
CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT OVR NW/NRN INDIANA ALG NRN EDGE OF TIGHT LL                  
THETA-E GRADIENT. 09Z RUC GOES AGAINST 00Z MODEL SUITE IN KEEPING               
STG LLJ IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN AND KINDLING STG CONVECTIVE                  
DVLPMNT AGAIN BY 18Z ACRS NW INDIANA AGAIN. BACKDROP SYNOPTIC PATTN             
REMAINS FVRBL ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY AUGMENTED BY LARGE CONVECTIVE                  
OUTFLW FM TWO EARLIER MCS/S AND ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL                
CONT TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS UPSTREAM OF WHETHER OR NOT TO CONT             
A TSRA/CB MENTION AT KSBN. DOUBT KFWA WILL SEE ANYTHING THIS MORNING            
ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NOT HOLD BY THIS AFTN. SO ATTM WILL PLAY IT                   
OPTIMISTIC AND GO W/VFR CONDS AT BOTH SITES FM 12Z YET HOLD OFF ON              
ANY POTENTIAL MVFR TSRA MENTION FOR THE AFTN GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY.            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY FOCUS ON TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT. PAIR OF MCS TO AFFECT                    
PRIMARILY NRN CWA THIS AM. FIRST STRONGEST ACRS NERN CWA                        
ASSOCIATED WITH 5H MID LVL SPEED MAX AROUND 55KT PER KIWX                       
VWP...FURTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITH KLOT                
8-5H PROFILE SLIGHTLY BACKED/STRENGTHENED FLOW. FURTHER SOUTHEAST               
DEVELOPMENT ON FLANK/TAIL OF LEAD MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE                          
VORTICITY...HOWEVER WITH STABILIZATION OF BL IN WAKE OF FIRST                   
SYSTEM AND MINIMAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS ANY TSRA TO                
REMAIN WELL BLO SEVERE LIMITS. THEN A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF NO                  
DISCERNIBLE LOW/MID LVL FOCUS FOR TSRA UNTIL STRONG ENERGY DIGGING              
ACRS INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO WESTERNMOST PORTION OF BROAD 5H                 
TROF EXTENDING ENE TO WRN GRTLKS BECOMES FOCUS FOR UPSTREAM TSRA                
GENERATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL                
AXIS INTO OHIO VALLEY TO PUSH NWD AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY                
FROM MET GUIDANCE IN LWR 90S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTHERN CWA...MAV                
SHOWING TYPICAL WARM BIAS OF LATE. SOAKED GROUND/STRONG                         
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC DPS ALREADY IN                  
UPPER 60S/LWR 70S TO PUSH HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100 SOUTHERN                     
CWA...AND WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO/WEBSTORY. LATER TONIGHT WITH                      
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BACKED/STRONG 8H JET TO FOCUS                    
STORM INITIATION ACRS IA/NRN IL LATE AFTERNOON. THEN INTO CWA                   
LATER IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ENEWD MID                   
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 55KTS ACRS SWRN MI. WITH STRONG           
HELICAL HODO COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE POOL OF DOWNSTREAM CAPE IN                 
EXCESS OF 3KJ/KG...CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS ACRS NRN CWA LATE                  
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NO MENTION OF SEVERE AND LESSER POPS FURTHER                 
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT WEAKER DEEP LAYER                    
SHEAR...FURTHER REMOVED FROM LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/POOL AHEAD                 
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NORTHWEST AND REMOVED FROM MID LEVEL                     
HEIGHT FALLS FOR FOCUSED ASCENT. SINGLED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A                 
BIT HIR POPS GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND YET ANOTHER                
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MS VLY MEAN TROF.                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
`                                                                               
UPDATE...LAMMERS                                                                
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM....MURPHY                                                             
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
702 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STG LL WAA OVERTOP POST OUTFLW BUBBLE CONTS TO SPRT RENEWED                     
CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT OVR NW/NRN INDIANA ALG NRN EDGE OF TIGHT LL                  
THETA-E GRADIENT. 09Z RUC GOES AGAINST 00Z MODEL SUITE IN KEEPING               
STG LLJ IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN AND KINDLING STG CONVECTIVE                  
DVLPMNT AGAIN BY 18Z ACRS NW INDIANA AGAIN. BACKDROP SYNOPTIC PATTN             
REMAINS FVRBL ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY AUGMENTED BY LARGE CONVECTIVE                  
OUTFLW FM TWO EARLIER MCS/S AND ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL                
CONT TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS UPSTREAM OF WHETHER OR NOT TO CONT             
A TSRA/CB MENTION AT KSBN. DOUBT KFWA WILL SEE ANYTHING THIS MORNING            
ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NOT HOLD BY THIS AFTN. SO ATTM WILL PLAY IT                   
OPTIMISTIC AND GO W/VFR CONDS AT BOTH SITES FM 12Z YET HOLD OFF ON              
ANY POTENTIAL MVFR TSRA MENTION FOR THE AFTN GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY.            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY FOCUS ON TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT. PAIR OF MCS TO AFFECT                    
PRIMARILY NRN CWA THIS AM. FIRST STRONGEST ACRS NERN CWA                        
ASSOCIATED WITH 5H MID LVL SPEED MAX AROUND 55KT PER KIWX                       
VWP...FURTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITH KLOT                
8-5H PROFILE SLIGHTLY BACKED/STRENGTHENED FLOW. FURTHER SOUTHEAST               
DEVELOPMENT ON FLANK/TAIL OF LEAD MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE                          
VORTICITY...HOWEVER WITH STABILIZATION OF BL IN WAKE OF FIRST                   
SYSTEM AND MINIMAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS ANY TSRA TO                
REMAIN WELL BLO SEVERE LIMITS. THEN A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF NO                  
DISCERNIBLE LOW/MID LVL FOCUS FOR TSRA UNTIL STRONG ENERGY DIGGING              
ACRS INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO WESTERNMOST PORTION OF BROAD 5H                 
TROF EXTENDING ENE TO WRN GRTLKS BECOMES FOCUS FOR UPSTREAM TSRA                
GENERATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL                
AXIS INTO OHIO VALLEY TO PUSH NWD AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY                
FROM MET GUIDANCE IN LWR 90S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTHERN CWA...MAV                
SHOWING TYPICAL WARM BIAS OF LATE. SOAKED GROUND/STRONG                         
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC DPS ALREADY IN                  
UPPER 60S/LWR 70S TO PUSH HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100 SOUTHERN                     
CWA...AND WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO/WEBSTORY. LATER TONIGHT WITH                      
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BACKED/STRONG 8H JET TO FOCUS                    
STORM INITIATION ACRS IA/NRN IL LATE AFTERNOON. THEN INTO CWA                   
LATER IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ENEWD MID                   
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 55KTS ACRS SWRN MI. WITH STRONG           
HELICAL HODO COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE POOL OF DOWNSTREAM CAPE IN                 
EXCESS OF 3KJ/KG...CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS ACRS NRN CWA LATE                  
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NO MENTION OF SEVERE AND LESSER POPS FURTHER                 
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT WEAKER DEEP LAYER                    
SHEAR...FURTHER REMOVED FROM LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/POOL AHEAD                 
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NORTHWEST AND REMOVED FROM MID LEVEL                     
HEIGHT FALLS FOR FOCUSED ASCENT. SINGLED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A                 
BIT HIR POPS GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND YET ANOTHER                
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MS VLY MEAN TROF.                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM....MURPHY                                                             
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                 
341 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AT 3 PM...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO                 
EAST CENTRAL IOWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT.             
LOOKING FURTHER TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAS                
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH            
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
BOTH SPC MESO ANALYSIS TOOL AND AWIPS LAPS DATA...CONTINUE TO SHOW              
THAT A MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AXIS IS STILL LOCATED ALONG A                         
KORD-KSTL-KSGF LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE             
LESS THAN 500 J/KG. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE MOST UNSTABLE            
CAPES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE 18Z RUC FORECASTS SUGGESTS              
THAT THIS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE BEST            
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.                
WITH THE SOILS SATURATED AND RIVERS EITHER FLOODING OR HIGH...I KEPT            
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THOUGH TONIGHT.                                        
ON SATURDAY...ALL OF THE AUGUST 24TH 12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD                
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN                   
IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. EVEN THOUGH                  
THIS IS THE CASE...THEY DO DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION                  
WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE THE GFS DRYING THE SURFACE                
DEW POINTS TO AROUND 60F. ITS 0-3 KM CAPES REMAIN GENERALLY LESS                
THAN 500 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE NAM/WRF STILL HAS DEW POINTS IN THE                
MID 60S. THIS RESULTS IN THE 0-3KM CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 1000 TO              
2000 J/KG RANGE. CONSIDERING THE WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND THE AMOUNT              
OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST              
COUPLE OF WEEKS...I AM MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE NAM/WRF DEW                 
POINTS AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A 20 TO                  
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH                 
SUBSIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY                   
CLEAR. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN 13 AND 15C...                   
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS               
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE                
80S ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI.                                                  
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
ALL OF THE AUGUST 24TH 12Z ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST                  
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE BACK OF THE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED              
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND                  
MONDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION TYPICALLY RESULTS IN THE                        
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND               
EARLY MORNING. I CONSIDERED ADDING A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION              
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA...BUT SINCE IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW               
FAR EAST THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GET I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY                
FOR NOW. BESIDES THIS PERIOD...THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION                 
LOOKS TO BE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT                
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE                
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA                   
THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE                  
SOUTHEAST.  PREVAILING CIGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 FT                
WITH VSBYS P6SM.  THESE WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO AROUND 700 FT WITH            
VSBYS AROUND 1SM IN SHRA/TSRA. CID AND DBQ WILL BE FIRST AREA TO SEE            
PCPN END...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK             
AND FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.  ..14..                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY                                                                      
TODAY HAS BEEN A TRULY INCREDIBLE DAY OF HYDRO ACROSS THE CWA.  A 5             
TO 7 INCH RAINFALL EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM TODAY.              
THIS ON TOP OF VERY SATURATED GROUND HAS PRODUCED FLASH                         
FLOODING...AND FLASH FLOOD RESPONSES ON SOME AREA RIVERS. RIVER                 
RISES SKYROCKETED TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE DES            
MOINES RIVER...AND LATER ON THE FOX RIVER.  LEVELS PEAKED QUICKLY IN            
SOME CASES...LIKE IN KEOSAUQUA...AND ARE NOW CRESTING BELOW RECORD              
VALUES. MOST OTHER RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING MINOR TO MODERATE                    
FLOODING...WITH SOME MAJOR FLOODING ON THE ROCK AND LOWER                       
MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING BURLINGTON. MOST RIVERS SHOULD CREST BETWEEN            
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE REFERENCE INDIVIDUAL POINT             
FORECASTS ON THE AHPS/RIVER INFO SECTION ON THE WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN            
WEB PAGE. ..ERVIN..                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES               
     MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-                  
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.                                      
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-                 
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-                    
     WARREN-WHITESIDE.                                                          
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAUMGARDT/BOYNE/14/ERVIN                                                        
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1119 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 320K LAYER HAS LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED SHRA                
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.  DID NOTE A FEW LIGHTNING              
STRIKES AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME TSRA.                
LATEST SHORT TERM RUC MODEL SHOWS THIS AREA OF LIFT SLOWLY MOVING TO            
THE EAST AND WEAKENING DURING THE MIDDAY. SO EXPECT THIS AREA OF                
SHRA/TSRA TO DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH A RETURN OF              
SOME SUNSHINE.                                                                  
AFTER SUNSHINE RETURNS THE SURAFCE WINDS COULD GET RATHER                       
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS 40-45KT 850H                  
WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY              
IN THIS AREA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE               
AOBVE MENTIONED BOUNDARIES GUSTING TO 45 KT AS WELL...BUT WILL                  
NOT EXPAND ADVISORY YET.                                                        
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS EVENING...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND                  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANTS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  THE MID-MORNING CLOUDS AND             
SHRA...WILL ACT TO KEEP CONVECTION CHANCES AT BAY FOR MOST OF THE               
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG THE             
BOUNDARIES. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL             
KANSAS BECOMES UNCAPPED BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO EXPECT                  
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 22-00Z JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF                   
CENTRAL KS.  0-3KM SHEAR VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL KS OF 25-35KTS                   
SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT...WITH NAM FORECAST                     
SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURST                 
WINDS.  SO LIKELY POPS AND SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS WARRANTED. EXPECT              
THIS CONVECTION TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO MOST OF CEN KS LATE THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAF SUITE.                                                              
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA HAS LEAD TO AN LARGE EXPANSE OF                 
ALTO-CU ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALSO LEAD              
SOME VCTS NEAR KHUT AND KICT. SO MAY HAVE TO CARRY SOME VCTS FOR                
THIS AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS (FROM 18-20Z). EXPECT VFR                       
CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE VCTS CHANCE AS THE CLOUD DECK IS 8-10K                 
FEET.                                                                           
 TSRA CHANCES THEN WILL SHIFT TO CEN KS THIS EVENING NEAR KRSL                  
INITIALLY AND THEN TO KSLN AND KHUT/KICT. SO WILL KEEP VCTS AND TSRA            
GOING IN KRSL TAF SITES...BUT FEEL THAT SOME VCTS SHOULD BE ADDED TO            
KSLN/KICT AND KHUT AS WELL AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO PROPAGATE                    
SOUTHEAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES.  COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR                
CEILINGS IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION.                                            
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
12Z TAF SET: [KRSL/KHUT/KSLN/KICT/KCNU]                                         
WITH SFC LOW STRENGTHENING OVER SE CO SOUTHERLY LWR-LEVEL WINDS TO              
INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS SC KS WHERE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT                 
THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ~30KTS WITH GUSTS ~40KTS ARE LIKELY            
AT KICT & KHUT FROM 17Z-02Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 22G35KTS ARE LIKELY             
AT KRSL & KSLN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON @ KRSL WHERE CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD            
FRONT IS DRAWING CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) HIGH            
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY AT KRSL) 2) TIMING OF WIND SHIFT &             
3) POTENTIAL FOR SPREADING OF MVFR CEILINGS & VISIBILITIES INTO KRSL            
~05Z. TSRA SHOULD SPREAD SE TOWARD KHUT & KSLN EARLY FRI MORNING BUT            
UNTIL ARRIVAL TIME OF COLD FRONT COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS HAVE LEFT              
"TSRA" DESCRIPTOR OUT OF THESE TERMINALS FOR TIME BEING.                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW               
DAYS AND STRONG WINDS TODAY.                                                    
TODAY-TONIGHT:                                                                  
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAIRLY DIFFUSE AT 06Z WITH IMPACTS FROM               
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM VARIOUS T-STORM CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER            
IT LOOKS TO EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM NW KS INTO SERN NE. A LEAD SHORTWAVE            
CAN READILY BE SEEN EARLY THIS AM (VIA WIND PROFILERS/SATELLITE)                
LIFTING OUT ACROSS WESTERN NE/WESTERN KS AND IS AIDING A T-STORM                
CLUSTER OVER N-CENTRAL KS. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS NEWD TO IOWA/N MISSOURI           
BY LATE THIS PM...THE FRONT SHOULD GET A SOUTHWARD NUDGE REACHING               
CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN KS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE NAM-                  
WRF/GFS AGREE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP OVER SOUTHERN               
KS WITH VERY STEEP 1000-850 LAPSE RATES AIDING STRONG MIXING.                   
CURRENT AREA PROFILERS AND PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER-850 WINDS ARE                 
SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTHERLY WINDS IN SOUTH              
CENTRAL KS. HAVE COORDINATED WITH WFO`S DDC/OUN ON A WIND ADVISORY              
RUNNING FROM 17Z-00Z FOR S-CNTRL KS. THINKING CURRENT T-STORM                   
CLUSTER MOVING INTO N-CENTRAL KS SHOULD AFFECT SOME OF OUR CENTRAL KS           
COUNTIES EARLY-MID MORNING. STRONG HEATING/INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE              
NEAR THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF T-STORMS               
THIS PM IN CENTRAL KS. ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A REMNANT                        
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT WHICH                   
COULD PLAY A MESOSCALE ROLE THIS PM. STRONG INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM               
SHEAR OF 35-45KT SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN                 
CENTRAL KS LATE THIS PM/EVE. SEVERAL FACTORS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT                
MCS DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OVER THE NW HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT: A              
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 50 KT LOW- LEVEL JET WITH VERY STRONG MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET...AND 850 FN CONVERGENCE               
ALONG THE FRONT. HIGHEST POPS TARGET CENTRAL KS IN OUR AREA                     
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHO MAY NOT                 
GET ANY RAIN TONIGHT.                                                           
FRIDAY-SATURDAY:                                                                
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS AM...WILL               
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVING              
THE COLD FRONT YET ANOTHER SURGE. THE MODELS PUSH THE BOUNDARY TO               
ABOUT THE KS/OK BORDER BY 12Z SATURDAY BEFORE THEY STALL IT OUT.                
GIVEN CONCERNS ABOUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY IMPACTING                 
HEATING IN PART DUE TO MCS DEBRIS...ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL                     
CLOUDS...NOT PLANNING TO CARRY ABOVE 50% POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA              
FRI-FRI NIGHT. ALSO...THE UPPER SUPPORT FRI NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS              
GOOD AS TONIGHT. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS REASONABLE             
SATURDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN KS COUNTIES WITH THE STALLED FRONT IN THE              
AREA AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY/MOISTURE POOLING PROGGED. HIGHS FRI                
STILL LOOK PROBLEMATIC WITH A DECENT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST POSSIBLE              
WITH THE FRONT IN OUR AREA. WILL SHOOT FOR LOWER 80S BEHIND FRONT IN            
CENTRAL KS...TO MID 90S IN THE FAR SE.                                          
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                               
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THESE PERIODS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT               
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRY TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE                
AREA LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. NEXT FRONT DUE INTO THE AREA                
LATE TUES INTO WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROF LIFTING FROM               
THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE T-STORMS               
LOOKING VERY REASONABLE IN OUR AREA WITH THIS FRONT.                            
JMC                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR 06Z TAFS...IN THE SHORT TERM MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS                  
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL KS. THE STORMS OVER NE KS HAVE HAD            
TROUBLE WORKING WEST. THEREFORE IT APPEARS THE BEST SHOT AT STORMS              
OVER CENTRAL KS WILL COME FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT WEST AND WORK            
INTO THE AREA. WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE HIGH              
PLAINS...STORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING ACROSS GLD`S FORECAST AREA AND               
ARE TRACKING EAST. THEREFORE JUST KEPT THE VCTS IN AT RSL WITH JUST             
A MENTION OF CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP AT SLN. THE MAIN STORY DURING THE            
DAY THU WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SW                
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND              
35 MPH. ICT...HUT AND SLN HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING WINDS CLOSE              
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THU AFTERNOON.                                             
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT...THAT HAS              
BROUGHT NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NEBRASKA...SAGS SOUTH INTO NORTH                   
CENTRAL KS. THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE RSL AND SLN WILL HAVE A SHOT AT             
STORMS FIRST THU NIGHT WITH CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH INTO FRI MORNING.           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    93  74  88  70 /  20  30  40  50                                
HUTCHINSON      94  72  87  67 /  20  40  50  40                                
NEWTON          93  74  87  67 /  20  30  50  40                                
ELDORADO        93  74  88  70 /  20  30  40  50                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  75  90  71 /  10  20  40  50                                
RUSSELL         96  65  82  65 /  40  60  60  20                                
GREAT BEND      96  66  83  66 /  30  50  60  20                                
SALINA          94  68  84  66 /  40  50  60  20                                
MCPHERSON       94  71  85  67 /  30  40  50  30                                
COFFEYVILLE     94  74  93  71 /  10  20  30  50                                
CHANUTE         94  74  90  70 /  10  20  40  50                                
IOLA            94  73  89  69 /  10  20  40  50                                
PARSONS-KPPF    94  74  92  71 /  10  20  40  50                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ067>069-082-083-               
091>093.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1125 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO ADD ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE FAR SCNTRL AS RADAR SHOWS SOME              
-SHRA HAVE DVLPD OVER MARINETTE COUNTY IN WI. THESE SHRA APPEAR                 
FAIRLY SHALLOW...HAVING DVPLD IN MOIST LYR TO H725 AS SHOWN ON 00Z              
GRB SDNG. SINCE THE STEERING FLOW IN THIS LYR IS NNE... THINK THE               
ONLY PLACE IN THE CWA THAT MIGHT BE IMPACTED WOULD BE SRN MNM COUNTY            
IF THE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE NW LATER AS FCST BY RECENT RUC. ALSO                
BUMPED UP FCST LO TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MORE            
RESILIENT MSTR AND TREND ON STLT IMAGERY FOR BACK EDGE OF LINGERING             
CLD TO SLOW RETREAT TO THE S.                                                   
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
KC                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...FGEN RAIN BAND OVER CENTRAL WI SHOWING SIGNS OF                     
WEAKENING AS NOTED ON RADAR LOOP. ISOLD SHRA FROM THIS BAND STILL               
ADVECTING OVER MNM COUNTY WITH EVENING SCT SPRINKLES NOTED OVER                 
ALGER-DELTA COUNTY EASTWARD. EXPECT THESE LIGHT SHOWERS TO END BY               
00Z WITH LOSS OF FGEN FORCING PER 18Z RUC. INSOLATION OVER WRN                  
COUNTIES HAS LEAD TO DIURNAL CU FORMATION AS NOTED ON VISIBLE                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AFTER             
SUNSET.                                                                         
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IS DUE             
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SAT.                                    
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
CONCERNS FOCUS ON CLOUDS/TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR ANY               
PCPN ON SAT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS.                           
EXPECT CLEARING LINE FROM FGEN CLOUDS/PCPN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY             
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS FGEN BAND SAGS E.               
ANY CLEARING MAY BE TEMPORARY THOUGH AS CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF                    
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.                
USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. EXPECT THEIR            
WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING/RAD COOLING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS              
EVENING TO DROP A FEW LOCATIONS INTO THE MID-UPR 40S. THE REST OF               
THE CWA SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.                                      
THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE              
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UKMET AND REGIONAL CANADIAN APPEAR TO             
BE QUICKEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE...MOVING IT THROUGH UPR MI IN THE                
MORNING HRS. THE SLOWER NAM SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IN               
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE             
TIMING COULD BE CRITICAL ON ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA ON SAT. IF            
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON                
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA.             
NAM AND GFS SNDGS INDICATE AROUND 100 J/KG CAPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON              
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S BUT IF THE UKMET AND REG CANADIAN               
VERIFY THEN THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED. FOR                  
NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO TREND TOWARD AN INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE                    
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HRS BUT LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. BOTH GFS AND            
NAM SHOW GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE            
SHORTWAVE.                                                                      
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                      
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES SHAPE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. CLEARING                  
SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORT MOS MINS INTO THE LOWER               
40S SAT NIGHT. LIKE THE IDEA FM PREVIOUS SHIFT OF LOWERING TEMPS                
TOWARD COOP MOS. THESE GRIDS ALONG WITH GFS BIAS ADJUSTED GRIDS                 
POINT TO LOWS IN UPR 30S/AROUND 40 IN THE COOLEST INTERIOR SPOTS.               
MAX TEMPS STEADILY RISE FM COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. H85 WINDS BACK            
MORE SW LATER SUN INTO MON ALLOWING WARMER AIR OVER BUILDING OVER               
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND TO                
MOVE INTO UPR LAKES. OUTSIDE OF GFS PROGS SHOWING +20C H85 TEMPS                
OVR CWA ON MON...MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SETTLES ON H85 TEMPS AROUND                
+16C...WHICH RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS MONDAY INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.                  
BELIEVE GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING...PROBABLY DUE TO MUCH               
MORE WRAPPED UP SFC LOW IT SHOWS RIDING NE ALONG SFC FRONT.                     
ZONAL FLOW PROCEEDS TO PROPEL THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES            
BY WED. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL UNCERTAIN. GFS/CANADIAN INDICATES             
FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH CWA BY 00Z WED. MEANWHILE...GFS ENSEMBLE               
AND OPERATIONAL 00Z/12Z ECMWF ARE 6-12 HR SLOWER...DUE IN PART TO               
A MORE INVERTED TROUGH LOOK. AT THIS POINT...PREFER THE SLOWER                  
SOLUTION WHICH IS ALSO MORE IN STEP WITH LATEST HPC PROGS. BETTER               
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TUE ARE JUST TO THE WEST INTO THE WEST HALF             
OF CWA. STILL...SLIGHTLY BETTER PCPN CHANCES WILL EVEN MAKE IT INTO             
EAST CWA BY TUE NIGHT. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z WED. THEN                 
...MORE DRY WEATHER RIGHT INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH             
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THU/FRI. GUIDANCE/HPC HIGHS LOOKED FINE                
AFTER THE FROPA BUT DID LOWER AFTN DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH            
THE EXPECTED DRY AIRMASS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PD WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE              
WNW AS SHOWN ON RECENT TAMDAR SDNG FM DLH STREAMING INTO THE FA.                
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE SW LATE TNGT/SAT IN MORE SW FLOW ALF WL CAUSE              
QUITE A BIT OF SC...BUT EXPECT NO PCPN OR CIGS LESS THAN 3000 FT                
ATTM WITH RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUN MORNING                
(REALLY NOTHING OVER 20KT). WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER SUN THROUGH             
MON NIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW                  
ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                  
SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY 15-25KT WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR SUN EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE               
LIGHTER OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE AS THEY COMMONLY ARE IN A                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE LATE               
TUE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...VOSS                                               
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
740 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...FGEN RAIN BAND OVER CENTRAL WI SHOWING SIGNS OF                     
WEAKENING AS NOTED ON RADAR LOOP. ISOLD SHRA FROM THIS BAND STILL               
ADVECTING OVER MNM COUNTY WITH EVENING SCT SPRINKLES NOTED OVER                 
ALGER-DELTA COUNTY EASTWARD. EXPECT THESE LIGHT SHOWERS TO END BY               
00Z WITH LOSS OF FGEN FORCING PER 18Z RUC. INSOLATION OVER WRN                  
COUNTIES HAS LEAD TO DIURNAL CU FORMATION AS NOTED ON VISIBLE                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AFTER             
SUNSET.                                                                         
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IS DUE             
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SAT.                                    
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
CONCERNS FOCUS ON CLOUDS/TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR ANY               
PCPN ON SAT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS.                           
EXPECT CLEARING LINE FROM FGEN CLOUDS/PCPN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY             
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS FGEN BAND SAGS E.               
ANY CLEARING MAY BE TEMPORARY THOUGH AS CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF                    
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.                
USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. EXPECT THEIR            
WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING/RAD COOLING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS              
EVENING TO DROP A FEW LOCATIONS INTO THE MID-UPR 40S. THE REST OF               
THE CWA SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.                                      
THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE              
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UKMET AND REGIONAL CANADIAN APPEAR TO             
BE QUICKEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE...MOVING IT THROUGH UPR MI IN THE                
MORNING HRS. THE SLOWER NAM SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IN               
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE             
TIMING COULD BE CRITICAL ON ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA ON SAT. IF            
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON                
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA.             
NAM AND GFS SNDGS INDICATE AROUND 100 J/KG CAPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON              
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S BUT IF THE UKMET AND REG CANADIAN               
VERIFY THEN THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED. FOR                  
NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO TREND TOWARD AN INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE                    
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HRS BUT LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. BOTH GFS AND            
NAM SHOW GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE            
SHORTWAVE.                                                                      
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                      
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES SHAPE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. CLEARING                  
SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORT MOS MINS INTO THE LOWER               
40S SAT NIGHT. LIKE THE IDEA FM PREVIOUS SHIFT OF LOWERING TEMPS                
TOWARD COOP MOS. THESE GRIDS ALONG WITH GFS BIAS ADJUSTED GRIDS                 
POINT TO LOWS IN UPR 30S/AROUND 40 IN THE COOLEST INTERIOR SPOTS.               
MAX TEMPS STEADILY RISE FM COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. H85 WINDS BACK            
MORE SW LATER SUN INTO MON ALLOWING WARMER AIR OVER BUILDING OVER               
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND TO                
MOVE INTO UPR LAKES. OUTSIDE OF GFS PROGS SHOWING +20C H85 TEMPS                
OVR CWA ON MON...MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SETTLES ON H85 TEMPS AROUND                
+16C...WHICH RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS MONDAY INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.                  
BELIEVE GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING...PROBABLY DUE TO MUCH               
MORE WRAPPED UP SFC LOW IT SHOWS RIDING NE ALONG SFC FRONT.                     
ZONAL FLOW PROCEEDS TO PROPEL THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES            
BY WED. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL UNCERTAIN. GFS/CANADIAN INDICATES             
FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH CWA BY 00Z WED. MEANWHILE...GFS ENSEMBLE               
AND OPERATIONAL 00Z/12Z ECMWF ARE 6-12 HR SLOWER...DUE IN PART TO               
A MORE INVERTED TROUGH LOOK. AT THIS POINT...PREFER THE SLOWER                  
SOLUTION WHICH IS ALSO MORE IN STEP WITH LATEST HPC PROGS. BETTER               
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TUE ARE JUST TO THE WEST INTO THE WEST HALF             
OF CWA. STILL...SLIGHTLY BETTER PCPN CHANCES WILL EVEN MAKE IT INTO             
EAST CWA BY TUE NIGHT. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z WED. THEN                 
...MORE DRY WEATHER RIGHT INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH             
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THU/FRI. GUIDANCE/HPC HIGHS LOOKED FINE                
AFTER THE FROPA BUT DID LOWER AFTN DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH            
THE EXPECTED DRY AIRMASS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PD WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE              
WNW AS SHOWN ON RECENT TAMDAR SDNG FM DLH STREAMING INTO THE FA.                
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE SW LATE TNGT/SAT IN MORE SW FLOW ALF WL CAUSE              
QUITE A BIT OF SC...BUT EXPECT NO PCPN OR CIGS LESS THAN 3000 FT                
ATTM WITH RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUN MORNING                
(REALLY NOTHING OVER 20KT). WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER SUN THROUGH             
MON NIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW                  
ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                  
SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY 15-25KT WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR SUN EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE               
LIGHTER OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE AS THEY COMMONLY ARE IN A                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE LATE               
TUE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...VOSS                                               
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
128 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON              
FOR MNM COUNTY. SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL WI HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO SRN            
MNM COUNTY...PER RADAR LOOP. 800-600 MB FGEN FORCING FROM 12Z RUC               
SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHRA COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS            
OVER MNM COUNTY.                                                                
REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT)...                                           
ALL IN ALL THE GOING FCST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. DEBATED ON WHETHER OR              
NOT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR TODAY. GIVEN CURRENT LOCATION OF PRECIP.                
OVER SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...DRY AIR FILTERING INTO FCST              
AREA FROM THE NW AND VEERING WINDS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...OPTED              
TO LEAVE WX GRIDS FOR TODAY AS IS...DRY. GFS CONTINUES TO TRY AND               
GIVE THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF CWA A BIT OF RAIN...BUT GIVEN                  
CURRENT TRENDS THIS IS A HARD SELL. ON SAT 400MB TROUGH CURRENTLY               
NOTED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO PASSES THROUGH MIDDAY...HOWEVER WITH               
WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW...MOISTURE STAYS WELL                
SOUTH KEEPING FA DRY FOR SAT. DID TWEAK A FEW OF THE TEMP GRIDS.                
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A COOL NIGHT AS PWAT MIN ALONG WITH                  
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS IN LINE               
WITH COOP GUIDANCE. WARMING TREND LOOKS TO STILL BE A GOOD BET FOR              
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THIS WEEKENDS HIGH PRESSURE                 
LOOKS TO USHER IN WARMER TEMPS FOR MONDAY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS            
THE EAST HALF ON MONDAY AS WARMER 850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE               
TYPICALLY WARMER WEST HALF OF THE CWA. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER                  
DIFFERENT FRONTAL TIMING FOR THE TUES/WED PRECIP CHANCES. WITH THE              
LATTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THE FORMER                
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY 18Z TUES. THIS TIME FRAME WILL              
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR AWHILE. ON A CLIMATE                   
NOTE...SO FAR THE AUGUST PRECIP. TOTAL IS 0.22 FOR THE NWS OFFICE.              
THIS VALUE IS FLIRTING WITH THE MINIMUM RECORD FOR OUR SITE. CURRENT            
MIN AUGUST PRECIP. TOTAL IS 0.56 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1970. WITH HIGH              
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM               
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DRIER AIR ADVANCING FROM THE NW SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH            
TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS              
WHETHER SOME OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NW OF THE LAKE MAY WORK                
INTO KCMX THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS                       
POSSIBILITY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUN MORNING              
(REALLY NOTHING OVER 15KT). WINDS WILL RAMP UP LATER SUN THROUGH MON            
AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A              
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE                     
SOUTHERLY 15-25KT WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN            
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER               
THE W PORTION OF THE LAKE AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE IN SOUTHERLY WIND               
REGIMES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL               
PASS...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO TIMING ITS PASSAGE IN LATER             
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE LATE              
TUE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
DISCUSSION...PEARSON                                                            
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1203 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON              
FOR MNM COUNTY. SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL WI HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO SRN            
MNM COUNTY...PER RADAR LOOP. 800-600 MB FGEN FORCING FROM 12Z RUC               
SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHRA COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS            
OVER MNM COUNTY.                                                                
REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT)...                                           
ALL IN ALL THE GOING FCST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. DEBATED ON WHETHER OR              
NOT TO INCLUDE POPS FOR TODAY. GIVEN CURRENT LOCATION OF PRECIP.                
OVER SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...DRY AIR FILTERING INTO FCST              
AREA FROM THE NW AND VEERING WINDS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...OPTED              
TO LEAVE WX GRIDS FOR TODAY AS IS...DRY. GFS CONTINUES TO TRY AND               
GIVE THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF CWA A BIT OF RAIN...BUT GIVEN                  
CURRENT TRENDS THIS IS A HARD SELL. ON SAT 400MB TROUGH CURRENTLY               
NOTED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO PASSES THROUGH MIDDAY...HOWEVER WITH               
WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW...MOISTURE STAYS WELL                
SOUTH KEEPING FA DRY FOR SAT. DID TWEAK A FEW OF THE TEMP GRIDS.                
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A COOL NIGHT AS PWAT MIN ALONG WITH                  
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS IN LINE               
WITH COOP GUIDANCE. WARMING TREND LOOKS TO STILL BE A GOOD BET FOR              
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THIS WEEKENDS HIGH PRESSURE                 
LOOKS TO USHER IN WARMER TEMPS FOR MONDAY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS            
THE EAST HALF ON MONDAY AS WARMER 850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE               
TYPICALLY WARMER WEST HALF OF THE CWA. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER                  
DIFFERENT FRONTAL TIMING FOR THE TUES/WED PRECIP CHANCES. WITH THE              
LATTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THE FORMER                
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY 18Z TUES. THIS TIME FRAME WILL              
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR AWHILE. ON A CLIMATE                   
NOTE...SO FAR THE AUGUST PRECIP. TOTAL IS 0.22 FOR THE NWS OFFICE.              
THIS VALUE IS FLIRTING WITH THE MINIMUM RECORD FOR OUR SITE. CURRENT            
MIN AUGUST PRECIP. TOTAL IS 0.56 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1970. WITH HIGH              
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM               
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...AND THIS             
WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KCMX/KSAW. IN FACT...VFR             
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD AT BOTH SITES.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUN MORNING              
(REALLY NOTHING OVER 15KT). WINDS WILL RAMP UP LATER SUN THROUGH MON            
AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A              
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE                     
SOUTHERLY 15-25KT WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN            
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER               
THE W PORTION OF THE LAKE AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE IN SOUTHERLY WIND               
REGIMES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL               
PASS...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO TIMING ITS PASSAGE IN LATER             
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE LATE              
TUE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
DISCUSSION...PEARSON                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...ROLFSON                                                       
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.UPDATE (ISSUED 921 PM EDT THU AUG 23)...                                       
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CONTINUE THIS            
EVENING...SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION            
OF A 110 KT JET BETWEEN WAWA ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. AS THIS UPPER               
JET CONTINUES OFF TO THE NE...SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE CWA. LINEAR                 
EXTRAPOLATION SUPPORTS AN ENDING TIMING ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER             
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT             
FOR THE SPEED. REGARDING AMOUNTS...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH                  
CENTRAL U.P. MANAGED TO PICK UP BETWEEN A 0.50 INCH AND AN INCH OF              
RAIN...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES EVEN SUGGESTING A LITTLE HIGHER. SEE THE            
LATEST ARBRTPMQT FOR A FULL LIST OF AMOUNTS.                                    
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A FEW                
DEGREES GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THE FOG              
OFF THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND IN                 
GENERAL DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MN (SEE              
INL SOUNDING). HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE EASTERN U.P./EASTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUPPORT KEEPING THE PATCHY FOG                 
MENTION THERE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU AUG 23)...                
MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG                         
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
STRONG ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND BOW ECHO STRUCTURE LOOKS LIKE IT                
WILL STAY WELL SOUTH THIS EVENING OVER SRN WI/NRN IL. A SECONDARY               
AREA OF LIGHT -SHRA FARTHER NORTH OVER MN AND NW WI HAS MOVED INTO              
WRN UPR MI IN THE PAST HR OR TWO. THESE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY A              
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN MN AND WEAK UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100+ KT              
3H IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. WEAK INSTABILITY OF A COUPLE HUNDRED               
J/KG AND ABSENCE OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN NO               
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH ANY OF THESE SHRA.                                       
FOLLOWING LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL TRENDS ALONG WITH UPSTREAM RADAR             
TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FOR THE WEST                
HALF OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS              
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM SHRA. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLD SHRA               
FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH               
DRIER WEDGE OF AIR FROM 850-700 MB AS NOTED ON LATEST TAMDAR SNDGS              
MAY HELP DISSIPATE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. LOSS OF              
UPR DIV BY LATE EVENING WILL ALSO WORK TO DISSIPATE SHOWERS BY THE              
OVERNIGHT HRS.                                                                  
KEPT IN PATCHY FOG OVER ERN HALF COUNTIES TONIGHT AS DEWPOINT                   
DEPRESSION REMAIN LESS THAN 5F OVER MANY LOCATIONS AND ONSHORE SRLY             
FLOW WILL PERSIST OFF LAKE MI THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.                          
FOR FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ANY MCS/S THAT FORM IN WSW                
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL            
EXCEPTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS A HUGE BLOB OF CONVECTIVE PCPN MOVING            
INTO SCNTRL AND ERN UPR MI IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY             
CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THOUGH SO HAVE IGNORED THIS SOLN            
AND DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. EXPECT DRIER              
AIR TO GRADUALLY WORK FROM NW BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES AREA               
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE WRN                
HALF OF FCST AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO                
SLIGHTLY ABV MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS AS EXPECT A BIT MORE MIXING AND               
SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR 11-13C TEMPS TO MIX TO SFC. EXPECT INLAND                 
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.                              
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU)...                                      
ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. FAR               
EAST ZONES DO STAY ON EDGE OF HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND H85-H7              
FRONTOGENESIS BUT CONSIDERING MODELS LATELY ARE VERIFYING TOO FAR               
NORTH WITH QPF...AND SINCE SFC BOUNDARY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS TO THE EAST...EXPECT ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SAT                
NIGHT. BY LATE SUN...H85 WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST AND                    
SOUTHWEST WHICH BRINGS IN MUCH WARMER AIR AT H85. SOUNDINGS INDICATE            
NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO DESPITE GFS INDICATING LIGHT                   
QPF...KEPT GRIDS DRY SUN NIGHT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. NOT            
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THE THICKENING               
MID CLOUD. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PCPN ON MON SHOULD BE TO THE NW OF LK              
SUPERIOR ON NOSE OF H85 JET/MAXIMUM H85 THETA-E AND CLOSER TO                   
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. CUT                
POPS ON MON EXCEPT FOR ISLE ROYALE. SFC FRONT MOVES INTO MN LATE                
MON. GFS INDICATES SW WINDS FM H95-H85 NEARING 30KT. H85 TEMPS ALSO             
ON THE RISE...TO NEAR +19C BY LATE DAY IN THE WEST. POTENTIAL IS                
THERE FOR A WARM AND BREEZY MON WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE               
80S. DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S WHICH                 
COULD RESULT IN LOW RH VALUES AND MAKE FIRE WEATHER BIGGER CONCERN.             
ECMWF/GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE GENERAL ZONAL FLOW STAYS IN               
PLACE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMES WHEN THE FLOW BUCKLES SOME AS MORE             
TROFFINESS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SFC FRONT OVR MN ON MON                     
PROJECTED THROUGH UPR MI ON TUE AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE                 
CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. OTHER THAN THE WARM UP ON               
MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE             
REST OF DAYS 4-7.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY AIR               
FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS KEEPING                
TEMPERATURES UP HAS PREVENTED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT CMX. HOWEVER...THIS            
DRY AIR HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE AT SAW...PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE              
WIND DIRECTION CURRENTLY AT NNE. THESE WINDS ARE UPSLOPING INTO                 
SAW...AND COMBINED WITH THE LITTLE RAIN THAT MOVED ACROSS LAST                  
EVENING...LIFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBY HAVE DEVELOPED. HOWEVER...IN THE             
LAST HR...LIFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD TURN            
TO THE NW BETWEEN 08 AND 09Z...WHICH SHOULD BOTH END THE UPSLOPE AND            
BRING DRIER AIR IN. THUS HAVE DISSIPATED THE FOG AROUND 09Z FOR THE             
SAW TAF. BEYOND 09Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES             
AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO LINGER            
OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE                       
DISSIPATING WITH DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL                    
GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY                   
APPROACH 25 KT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE MON INTO TUE IN ADVANCE            
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SHORT TERM...VOSS                                                               
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...VOSS/AJ                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
921 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CONTINUE THIS            
EVENING...SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION            
OF A 110 KT JET BETWEEN WAWA ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. AS THIS UPPER               
JET CONTINUES OFF TO THE NE...SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE CWA. LINEAR                 
EXTRAPOLATION SUPPORTS AN ENDING TIMING ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER             
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT             
FOR THE SPEED. REGARDING AMOUNTS...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH                  
CENTRAL U.P. MANAGED TO PICK UP BETWEEN A 0.50 INCH AND AN INCH OF              
RAIN...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES EVEN SUGGESTING A LITTLE HIGHER. SEE THE            
LATEST ARBRTPMQT FOR A FULL LIST OF AMOUNTS.                                    
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A FEW                
DEGREES GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION...REMOVED THE FOG              
OFF THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND IN                 
GENERAL DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MN (SEE              
INL SOUNDING). HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE EASTERN U.P./EASTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUPPORT KEEPING THE PATCHY FOG                 
MENTION THERE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG                         
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
STRONG ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND BOW ECHO STRUCTURE LOOKS LIKE IT                
WILL STAY WELL SOUTH THIS EVENING OVER SRN WI/NRN IL. A SECONDARY               
AREA OF LIGHT -SHRA FARTHER NORTH OVER MN AND NW WI HAS MOVED INTO              
WRN UPR MI IN THE PAST HR OR TWO. THESE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY A              
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN MN AND WEAK UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100+ KT              
3H IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. WEAK INSTABILITY OF A COUPLE HUNDRED               
J/KG AND ABSENCE OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN NO               
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH ANY OF THESE SHRA.                                       
FOLLOWING LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL TRENDS ALONG WITH UPSTREAM RADAR             
TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FOR THE WEST                
HALF OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS              
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM SHRA. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLD SHRA               
FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH               
DRIER WEDGE OF AIR FROM 850-700 MB AS NOTED ON LATEST TAMDAR SNDGS              
MAY HELP DISSIPATE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. LOSS OF              
UPR DIV BY LATE EVENING WILL ALSO WORK TO DISSIPATE SHOWERS BY THE              
OVERNIGHT HRS.                                                                  
KEPT IN PATCHY FOG OVER ERN HALF COUNTIES TONIGHT AS DEWPOINT                   
DEPRESSION REMAIN LESS THAN 5F OVER MANY LOCATIONS AND ONSHORE SRLY             
FLOW WILL PERSIST OFF LAKE MI THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.                          
FOR FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ANY MCS/S THAT FORM IN WSW                
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL            
EXCEPTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS A HUGE BLOB OF CONVECTIVE PCPN MOVING            
INTO SCNTRL AND ERN UPR MI IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY             
CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THOUGH SO HAVE IGNORED THIS SOLN            
AND DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. EXPECT DRIER              
AIR TO GRADUALLY WORK FROM NW BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES AREA               
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE WRN                
HALF OF FCST AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO                
SLIGHTLY ABV MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS AS EXPECT A BIT MORE MIXING AND               
SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR 11-13C TEMPS TO MIX TO SFC. EXPECT INLAND                 
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.                              
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU)...                                      
ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. FAR               
EAST ZONES DO STAY ON EDGE OF HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND H85-H7              
FRONTOGENESIS BUT CONSIDERING MODELS LATELY ARE VERIFYING TOO FAR               
NORTH WITH QPF...AND SINCE SFC BOUNDARY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS TO THE EAST...EXPECT ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SAT                
NIGHT. BY LATE SUN...H85 WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST AND                    
SOUTHWEST WHICH BRINGS IN MUCH WARMER AIR AT H85. SOUNDINGS INDICATE            
NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO DESPITE GFS INDICATING LIGHT                   
QPF...KEPT GRIDS DRY SUN NIGHT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. NOT            
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THE THICKENING               
MID CLOUD. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PCPN ON MON SHOULD BE TO THE NW OF LK              
SUPERIOR ON NOSE OF H85 JET/MAXIMUM H85 THETA-E AND CLOSER TO                   
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. CUT                
POPS ON MON EXCEPT FOR ISLE ROYALE. SFC FRONT MOVES INTO MN LATE                
MON. GFS INDICATES SW WINDS FM H95-H85 NEARING 30KT. H85 TEMPS ALSO             
ON THE RISE...TO NEAR +19C BY LATE DAY IN THE WEST. POTENTIAL IS                
THERE FOR A WARM AND BREEZY MON WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE               
80S. DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S WHICH                 
COULD RESULT IN LOW RH VALUES AND MAKE FIRE WEATHER BIGGER CONCERN.             
ECMWF/GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE GENERAL ZONAL FLOW STAYS IN               
PLACE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMES WHEN THE FLOW BUCKLES SOME AS MORE             
TROFFINESS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SFC FRONT OVR MN ON MON                     
PROJECTED THROUGH UPR MI ON TUE AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE                 
CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. OTHER THAN THE WARM UP ON               
MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE             
REST OF DAYS 4-7.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES VERY EARLY IN THE            
PERIOD WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD MENTION OF LOW MVFR                   
CEILINGS ALONG WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SOME FOG. AM UNSURE NOW IF THAT            
WILL OCCUR WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS HEADING E FROM NORTHERN MN...WHILE              
AN OVERCAST MID-CLOUD DECK PREVAILS THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING                   
TEMPERATURES UP. IN ADDITION...THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RID ANY             
FOG THAT MIGHT BE ON LAKE SUPERIOR...REDUCING THE CHANCE OF UPSLOPE             
FOG INTO CMX. THUS HAVE REMOVED THE LOWER CEILINGS AND TEMPO GROUPS             
FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO LINGER            
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE FRI BEFORE              
DISSIPATING WITH DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL                    
GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY                   
APPROACH 25 KT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE MON INTO TUE IN ADVANCE            
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SHORT TERM...VOSS                                                               
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
726 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG                         
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
STRONG ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND BOW ECHO STRUCTURE LOOKS LIKE IT                
WILL STAY WELL SOUTH THIS EVENING OVER SRN WI/NRN IL. A SECONDARY               
AREA OF LIGHT -SHRA FARTHER NORTH OVER MN AND NW WI HAS MOVED INTO              
WRN UPR MI IN THE PAST HR OR TWO. THESE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY A              
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN MN AND WEAK UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100+ KT              
3H IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. WEAK INSTABILITY OF A COUPLE HUNDRED               
J/KG AND ABSENCE OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN NO               
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH ANY OF THESE SHRA.                                       
FOLLOWING LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL TRENDS ALONG WITH UPSTREAM RADAR             
TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FOR THE WEST                
HALF OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS              
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM SHRA. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLD SHRA               
FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH               
DRIER WEDGE OF AIR FROM 850-700 MB AS NOTED ON LATEST TAMDAR SNDGS              
MAY HELP DISSIPATE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. LOSS OF              
UPR DIV BY LATE EVENING WILL ALSO WORK TO DISSIPATE SHOWERS BY THE              
OVERNIGHT HRS.                                                                  
KEPT IN PATCHY FOG OVER ERN HALF COUNTIES TONIGHT AS DEWPOINT                   
DEPRESSION REMAIN LESS THAN 5F OVER MANY LOCATIONS AND ONSHORE SRLY             
FLOW WILL PERSIST OFF LAKE MI THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.                          
FOR FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ANY MCS/S THAT FORM IN WSW                
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL            
EXCEPTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS A HUGE BLOB OF CONVECTIVE PCPN MOVING            
INTO SCNTRL AND ERN UPR MI IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY             
CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THOUGH SO HAVE IGNORED THIS SOLN            
AND DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. EXPECT DRIER              
AIR TO GRADUALLY WORK FROM NW BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES AREA               
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE WRN                
HALF OF FCST AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO                
SLIGHTLY ABV MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS AS EXPECT A BIT MORE MIXING AND               
SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR 11-13C TEMPS TO MIX TO SFC. EXPECT INLAND                 
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.                              
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU)...                                      
ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. FAR               
EAST ZONES DO STAY ON EDGE OF HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND H85-H7              
FRONTOGENESIS BUT CONSIDERING MODELS LATELY ARE VERIFYING TOO FAR               
NORTH WITH QPF...AND SINCE SFC BOUNDARY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS TO THE EAST...EXPECT ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SAT                
NIGHT. BY LATE SUN...H85 WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST AND                    
SOUTHWEST WHICH BRINGS IN MUCH WARMER AIR AT H85. SOUNDINGS INDICATE            
NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO DESPITE GFS INDICATING LIGHT                   
QPF...KEPT GRIDS DRY SUN NIGHT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. NOT            
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THE THICKENING               
MID CLOUD. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PCPN ON MON SHOULD BE TO THE NW OF LK              
SUPERIOR ON NOSE OF H85 JET/MAXIMUM H85 THETA-E AND CLOSER TO                   
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. CUT                
POPS ON MON EXCEPT FOR ISLE ROYALE. SFC FRONT MOVES INTO MN LATE                
MON. GFS INDICATES SW WINDS FM H95-H85 NEARING 30KT. H85 TEMPS ALSO             
ON THE RISE...TO NEAR +19C BY LATE DAY IN THE WEST. POTENTIAL IS                
THERE FOR A WARM AND BREEZY MON WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE               
80S. DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S WHICH                 
COULD RESULT IN LOW RH VALUES AND MAKE FIRE WEATHER BIGGER CONCERN.             
ECMWF/GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE GENERAL ZONAL FLOW STAYS IN               
PLACE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMES WHEN THE FLOW BUCKLES SOME AS MORE             
TROFFINESS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SFC FRONT OVR MN ON MON                     
PROJECTED THROUGH UPR MI ON TUE AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE                 
CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. OTHER THAN THE WARM UP ON               
MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE             
REST OF DAYS 4-7.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES VERY EARLY IN THE            
PERIOD WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD MENTION OF LOW MVFR                   
CEILINGS ALONG WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SOME FOG. AM UNSURE NOW IF THAT            
WILL OCCUR WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS HEADING E FROM NORTHERN MN...WHILE              
AN OVERCAST MID-CLOUD DECK PREVAILS THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING                   
TEMPERATURES UP. IN ADDITION...THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RID ANY             
FOG THAT MIGHT BE ON LAKE SUPERIOR...REDUCING THE CHANCE OF UPSLOPE             
FOG INTO CMX. THUS HAVE REMOVED THE LOWER CEILINGS AND TEMPO GROUPS             
FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO LINGER            
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE FRI BEFORE              
DISSIPATING WITH DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL                    
GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY                   
APPROACH 25 KT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE MON INTO TUE IN ADVANCE            
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...VOSS                                                               
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG                         
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
STRONG ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND BOW ECHO STRUCTURE LOOKS LIKE IT                
WILL STAY WELL SOUTH THIS EVENING OVER SRN WI/NRN IL. A SECONDARY               
AREA OF LIGHT -SHRA FARTHER NORTH OVER MN AND NW WI HAS MOVED INTO              
WRN UPR MI IN THE PAST HR OR TWO. THESE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY A              
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN MN AND WEAK UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100+ KT              
3H IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. WEAK INSTABILITY OF A COUPLE HUNDRED               
J/KG AND ABSENCE OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN NO               
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH ANY OF THESE SHRA.                                       
FOLLOWING LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL TRENDS ALONG WITH UPSTREAM RADAR             
TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FOR THE WEST                
HALF OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS              
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM SHRA. ALSO INCLUDED ISOLD SHRA               
FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH               
DRIER WEDGE OF AIR FROM 850-700 MB AS NOTED ON LATEST TAMDAR SNDGS              
MAY HELP DISSIPATE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. LOSS OF              
UPR DIV BY LATE EVENING WILL ALSO WORK TO DISSIPATE SHOWERS BY THE              
OVERNIGHT HRS.                                                                  
KEPT IN PATCHY FOG OVER ERN HALF COUNTIES TONIGHT AS DEWPOINT                   
DEPRESSION REMAIN LESS THAN 5F OVER MANY LOCATIONS AND ONSHORE SRLY             
FLOW WILL PERSIST OFF LAKE MI THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.                          
FOR FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ANY MCS/S THAT FORM IN WSW                
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL            
EXCEPTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS A HUGE BLOB OF CONVECTIVE PCPN MOVING            
INTO SCNTRL AND ERN UPR MI IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY             
CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THOUGH SO HAVE IGNORED THIS SOLN            
AND DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. EXPECT DRIER              
AIR TO GRADUALLY WORK FROM NW BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES AREA               
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE WRN                
HALF OF FCST AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO                
SLIGHTLY ABV MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS AS EXPECT A BIT MORE MIXING AND               
SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR 11-13C TEMPS TO MIX TO SFC. EXPECT INLAND                 
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.                              
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU)...                                      
ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. FAR               
EAST ZONES DO STAY ON EDGE OF HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND H85-H7              
FRONTOGENESIS BUT CONSIDERING MODELS LATELY ARE VERIFYING TOO FAR               
NORTH WITH QPF...AND SINCE SFC BOUNDARY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS TO THE EAST...EXPECT ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SAT                
NIGHT. BY LATE SUN...H85 WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST AND                    
SOUTHWEST WHICH BRINGS IN MUCH WARMER AIR AT H85. SOUNDINGS INDICATE            
NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO DESPITE GFS INDICATING LIGHT                   
QPF...KEPT GRIDS DRY SUN NIGHT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. NOT            
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THE THICKENING               
MID CLOUD. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PCPN ON MON SHOULD BE TO THE NW OF LK              
SUPERIOR ON NOSE OF H85 JET/MAXIMUM H85 THETA-E AND CLOSER TO                   
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. CUT                
POPS ON MON EXCEPT FOR ISLE ROYALE. SFC FRONT MOVES INTO MN LATE                
MON. GFS INDICATES SW WINDS FM H95-H85 NEARING 30KT. H85 TEMPS ALSO             
ON THE RISE...TO NEAR +19C BY LATE DAY IN THE WEST. POTENTIAL IS                
THERE FOR A WARM AND BREEZY MON WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE               
80S. DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S WHICH                 
COULD RESULT IN LOW RH VALUES AND MAKE FIRE WEATHER BIGGER CONCERN.             
ECMWF/GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE GENERAL ZONAL FLOW STAYS IN               
PLACE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMES WHEN THE FLOW BUCKLES SOME AS MORE             
TROFFINESS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SFC FRONT OVR MN ON MON                     
PROJECTED THROUGH UPR MI ON TUE AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE                 
CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. OTHER THAN THE WARM UP ON               
MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE             
REST OF DAYS 4-7.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST             
PD. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT               
BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 06-12Z IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A               
COLD FRONT SO DID INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.                 
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE FRI                  
MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVANCES BEHIND THE FRONT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO LINGER            
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE FRI BEFORE              
DISSIPATING WITH DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL                    
GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY                   
APPROACH 25 KT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE MON INTO TUE IN ADVANCE            
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...VOSS                                               
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
130 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
AVIATION...MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE THINNED AT TIMES THROUGH THE             
MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...BUT ADVANCEMENT NORTHEAST OF A SHORTWAVE             
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING ABOUT A            
RETURN TO MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 015-030KFT. NOT MUCH SUN            
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AND THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN NOT MUCH            
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED                 
SHOWERS WILL BE HANGING AROUND THE TAF LOCALES...AND WILL RIDE VCSH             
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT             
WORKING THROUGH IOWA...AND WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND              
INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL                   
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUT TO OUR                  
WEST...THEN ARRIVE AT TVC AROUND 00Z...PLN/APN AROUND 01-03Z. MUCH              
MORE INSTABILITY WEST OF HERE...BUT WE ARE EXPECTED TO GAIN                     
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY INTO THE EVENING...THAT MIGHT HELP SUSTAIN               
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS FOR A POSSIBLE SHOT AT STRONG WIND                  
GUSTS. WILL BE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR            
POTENTIAL TAF UPDATES. AM EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO EXIT BY            
07Z OR SO...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.    SMD                         
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...SKIES CLEARED AHEAD OF MCV NOW RUNNING TOWARD CENTRAL LAKE            
MICHIGAN...WITH THE FOG LONG GONE FROM EASTERN UPPER...BUT LOW                  
CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN. BIG QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WAS WHETHER             
OR NOT WE WOULD GET ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOOKING AT                 
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV...AND AREA OF                
SHOWERS RUNNING THROUGH MANISTEE AREA...THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO                   
HAPPEN. WOULD ONLY EXPECT THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE                
PRESSING THROUGH NRN LOWER...WITH POSSIBLY SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.            
THUNDER WAS NOT WITH THIS SYSTEM...NOR IS IT ANTICIPATED. THE ONLY              
CHANCE FOR THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY APPEARS TO BE NEAR              
THE SAG BAY...IF THEY CAN CLEAR...AND AGAIN...THIS NOT SO MUCH THE              
EXPECTATION.                                                                    
UPSTREAM...BETTER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE IOWA REGION...AND             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS                 
FEATURE. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SUSTAINING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME            
STORMS...AND AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL               
FIRE...IN MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN IOWA/NRN IL/SRN WI.                 
TRACKING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION BRINGS IT INTO THE MANISTEE AREA            
AROUND 23Z...AND THROUGH ALPENA BY 03Z. DURATION OF THIS                        
PRECIPITATION IS TOUGH TO DISCERN...BUT PINPOINTING BETWEEN 00Z AND             
07Z.                                                                            
SEVERE CHANCES...NOT SO MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHOUT                 
DESTABILIZATION/HEATING. FOR THE NIGHT...HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH                   
DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR WITH STORMS AHEAD OF THE                    
STRONGER WAVE. RIGHT NOW...SEVERE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO 60              
MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED...BUT PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN LOWER. THERE IS A             
SMALL CHANCE THAT AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 IN NRN LOWER COULD SEE SOME               
ACTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STORM ORGANIZATION UPSTREAM TO SEE            
HOW FAR NORTH THIS THREAT WILL GO.    SMD                                       
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ISSUED 433 AM                                                      
EARLY MORNING SURFACE/MOSAIC RADAR/UPPER AIR/SATELLITE AND RUC                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION...STRETCHING FROM EXTREME             
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ONCE                 
AGAIN CONVOLUTING SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS OVER THE LAKES REGION.                
WHILE RATHER DIFFUSE AT THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS OUTFLOW FROM                    
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN PROCESS OF REESTABLISHING STATIONARY FRONT                 
(AFTER PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM                
FRONT) BACK SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEST INTO THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH LIKE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WARM MOIST ASCENT ON              
NOSE OF MODEST 850MB LOW LEVEL JET (850MB PROFILE DATA SHOWING 25 TO            
35 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS) PERPENDICULARLY                     
BISECTING THIS EAST/WEST BOUNDARY...COINCIDENT WITH SOME LOW                    
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...ONCE             
AGAIN SERVING AS THE IMPETUS FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.              
AS FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER...BESIDES AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN              
EXTENT OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN MCS SKIMMING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...REST OF            
AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COMBINATION OF HIGH               
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS WELL AS SOME LOW OVERCAST AS MOISTURE                
GETS TRAPPED BELOW STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION. BIGGEST                   
CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WEATHER RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN             
WHERE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED             
TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG. RATHER MILD NIGHT...EVEN BY LATE AUGUST                  
STANDARDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST               
CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE WHEN/IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
WILL ADVANCE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SEVERE ASSESSMENT WILL ALSO HAVE              
TO BE ADDRESSED AS SPC GRAPHICS MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF              
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                           
TODAY...RIGHT OFF THE BAT WOULD LIKE TO STATE THIS IS A VERY                    
CHALLENGING...AND SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE              
OUTFLOWS HIGHLY DICTATE EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND AS                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOTH PROPER INITIATION (MOST HAVE              
NO SEMBLANCE OF EXTENT OF ONGOING CONVECTION) AND CONVECTIVE                    
FEEDBACK ISSUES. LIKE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS                  
DETERMINING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF WARM FRONTAL PUSH AS NEXT IN SERIES             
OF SHORTWAVES...SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL                
KANSAS...GLIDES NORTHEAST INTO THE LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. WITH              
MODELS STRUGGLING AS SUCH...WILL RELY HIGHLY ON PATTERN RECOGNITION             
AND RECENT PAST HISTORY TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.               
GUT FEELING IS WITH MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THAT ACTIVE            
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO THE AREA.                   
THUS...WILL TREND FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS                                
DIRECTION...TAPERING POPS SOUTH TO NORTH AND KEEPING EVERYTHING IN              
CHANCE CATEGORY. WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND                  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY (ALBEIT STAYING SCATTERED) AS             
DESTABILIZATION (THINKING WE WILL AT LEAST GET SOME BREAKS IN THE               
OVERCAST) AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED                
KANSAS SHORTWAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...IF              
MODEL DERIVED POINT SOUNDINGS CAN BE BELIEVED THROUGH THEIR VERTICAL            
STRUCTURE (A BIG IF)...ML CAPE OVER NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING APPROACHES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH                     
INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT APPROACHES 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS 40 TO             
50 KNOT 500MB SPEED MAX CUT ACROSS THE AREA...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A               
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY              
CONCERN WOULD BE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60MPH AS LARGE HAIL THREAT              
WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN HIGH (14.5KFT) FREEZING HEIGHTS. HEAVY RAIN              
ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH PWATS ON THE              
ORDER OF 1.90 INCHES AND DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH. LIKE                          
YESTERDAY...HIGH BUST POTENTIAL ON TEMPERATURES OWNING TO AMOUNT OF             
SUNSHINE. WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER END OF                
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S             
SOUTH.                                                                          
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS                
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH             
THE NIGHT. FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT POSSIBLE SEVERE                 
THREAT FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY                   
MORNING HOURS...PER SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK. GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF                  
CONFIDENCE ON LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PLACEMENTS AND STRENGTH OF MID                 
LEVEL WAVES...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED LIKELY WORDING TO CHANCE              
CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD. MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LOWS ONLY                
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. TENTATIVELY NOT EXPECTING A                   
SIMILAR FOG SCENARIO AS SEEN TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH             
TO PREVENT GOOD FOG FORMATION.                                                  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO BELIEVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING MIGHT BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN AS                 
MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE OF THE BUNCH...DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC                    
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...CUTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD              
LEAD TO DECENT WAVE DEVELOPMENT ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF                            
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LAKES INTO THE               
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH THEN SHOULD RIDE NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD EXPECT A DECENT SLUG OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS TO FOLLOW SUITE...WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY CLEARING THE              
AREA BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THREAT WOULD ALSO RAMP UP IN THE             
WARM SECTOR (WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE PARTS OR ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER                
MICHIGAN) AS SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE WAVE.                 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW             
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.                             
MSB                                                                             
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT               
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME                     
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RESIDUAL LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE               
CWA. DRY WX WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH               
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN SETTLE INTO THE REGION. DRY WX             
WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EVEN THRU MONDAY              
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE            
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TALE END OF A WARM FRONT               
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPS              
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS                
WILL INCREASE FROM THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY              
AND THEN INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL WARM FROM                 
AROUND 50 SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE MID               
AND UPPER 50S BY MONDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-015.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
110 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...SKIES CLEARED AHEAD OF MCV NOW RUNNING TOWARD CENTRAL LAKE            
MICHIGAN...WITH THE FOG LONG GONE FROM EASTERN UPPER...BUT LOW                  
CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN. BIG QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WAS WHETHER             
OR NOT WE WOULD GET ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOOKING AT                 
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV...AND AREA OF                
SHOWERS RUNNING THROUGH MANISTEE AREA...THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO                   
HAPPEN. WOULD ONLY EXPECT THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE                
PRESSING THROUGH NRN LOWER...WITH POSSIBLY SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.            
THUNDER WAS NOT WITH THIS SYSTEM...NOR IS IT ANTICIPATED. THE ONLY              
CHANCE FOR THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY APPEARS TO BE NEAR              
THE SAG BAY...IF THEY CAN CLEAR...AND AGAIN...THIS NOT SO MUCH THE              
EXPECTATION.                                                                    
UPSTREAM...BETTER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE IOWA REGION...AND             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS                 
FEATURE. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SUSTAINING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME            
STORMS...AND AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL               
FIRE...IN MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN IOWA/NRN IL/SRN WI.                 
TRACKING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION BRINGS IT INTO THE MANISTEE AREA            
AROUND 23Z...AND THROUGH ALPENA BY 03Z. DURATION OF THIS                        
PRECIPITATION IS TOUGH TO DISCERN...BUT PINPOINTING BETWEEN 00Z AND             
07Z.                                                                            
SEVERE CHANCES...NOT SO MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHOUT                 
DESTABILIZATION/HEATING. FOR THE NIGHT...HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH                   
DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR WITH STORMS AHEAD OF THE                    
STRONGER WAVE. RIGHT NOW...SEVERE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO 60              
MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED...BUT PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN LOWER. THERE IS A             
SMALL CHANCE THAT AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 IN NRN LOWER COULD SEE SOME               
ACTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STORM ORGANIZATION UPSTREAM TO SEE            
HOW FAR NORTH THIS THREAT WILL GO.    SMD                                       
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...CHALLENGING TAF CYCLE AS DISORGANIZED SURFACE BOUNDARY               
HOVERS OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO POSSIBLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM              
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS              
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF             
UNTIL THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL                 
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AT THIS JUNCTURE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...SO WILL               
COVER WITH A LONG DURATION VCTS GROUP AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT.                 
IF/WHEN STORMS AFFECT TAF SITES...PERIODS OF MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS             
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS            
TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT SOUTH              
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.                                                              
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 433 AM                                                     
EARLY MORNING SURFACE/MOSAIC RADAR/UPPER AIR/SATELLITE AND RUC                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION...STRETCHING FROM EXTREME             
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ONCE                 
AGAIN CONVOLUTING SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS OVER THE LAKES REGION.                
WHILE RATHER DIFFUSE AT THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS OUTFLOW FROM                    
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN PROCESS OF REESTABLISHING STATIONARY FRONT                 
(AFTER PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM                
FRONT) BACK SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEST INTO THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH LIKE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WARM MOIST ASCENT ON              
NOSE OF MODEST 850MB LOW LEVEL JET (850MB PROFILE DATA SHOWING 25 TO            
35 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS) PERPENDICULARLY                     
BISECTING THIS EAST/WEST BOUNDARY...COINCIDENT WITH SOME LOW                    
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...ONCE             
AGAIN SERVING AS THE IMPETUS FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.              
AS FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER...BESIDES AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN              
EXTENT OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN MCS SKIMMING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...REST OF            
AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COMBINATION OF HIGH               
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS WELL AS SOME LOW OVERCAST AS MOISTURE                
GETS TRAPPED BELOW STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION. BIGGEST                   
CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WEATHER RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN             
WHERE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED             
TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG. RATHER MILD NIGHT...EVEN BY LATE AUGUST                  
STANDARDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST               
CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE WHEN/IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
WILL ADVANCE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SEVERE ASSESSMENT WILL ALSO HAVE              
TO BE ADDRESSED AS SPC GRAPHICS MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF              
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                           
TODAY...RIGHT OFF THE BAT WOULD LIKE TO STATE THIS IS A VERY                    
CHALLENGING...AND SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE              
OUTFLOWS HIGHLY DICTATE EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND AS                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOTH PROPER INITIATION (MOST HAVE              
NO SEMBLANCE OF EXTENT OF ONGOING CONVECTION) AND CONVECTIVE                    
FEEDBACK ISSUES. LIKE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS                  
DETERMINING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF WARM FRONTAL PUSH AS NEXT IN SERIES             
OF SHORTWAVES...SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL                
KANSAS...GLIDES NORTHEAST INTO THE LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. WITH              
MODELS STRUGGLING AS SUCH...WILL RELY HIGHLY ON PATTERN RECOGNITION             
AND RECENT PAST HISTORY TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.               
GUT FEELING IS WITH MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THAT ACTIVE            
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO THE AREA.                   
THUS...WILL TREND FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS                                
DIRECTION...TAPERING POPS SOUTH TO NORTH AND KEEPING EVERYTHING IN              
CHANCE CATEGORY. WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND                  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY (ALBEIT STAYING SCATTERED) AS             
DESTABILIZATION (THINKING WE WILL AT LEAST GET SOME BREAKS IN THE               
OVERCAST) AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED                
KANSAS SHORTWAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...IF              
MODEL DERIVED POINT SOUNDINGS CAN BE BELIEVED THROUGH THEIR VERTICAL            
STRUCTURE (A BIG IF)...ML CAPE OVER NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING APPROACHES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH                     
INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT APPROACHES 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS 40 TO             
50 KNOT 500MB SPEED MAX CUT ACROSS THE AREA...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A               
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY              
CONCERN WOULD BE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60MPH AS LARGE HAIL THREAT              
WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN HIGH (14.5KFT) FREEZING HEIGHTS. HEAVY RAIN              
ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH PWATS ON THE              
ORDER OF 1.90 INCHES AND DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH. LIKE                          
YESTERDAY...HIGH BUST POTENTIAL ON TEMPERATURES OWNING TO AMOUNT OF             
SUNSHINE. WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER END OF                
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S             
SOUTH.                                                                          
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS                
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH             
THE NIGHT. FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT POSSIBLE SEVERE                 
THREAT FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY                   
MORNING HOURS...PER SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK. GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF                  
CONFIDENCE ON LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PLACEMENTS AND STRENGTH OF MID                 
LEVEL WAVES...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED LIKELY WORDING TO CHANCE              
CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD. MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LOWS ONLY                
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. TENTATIVELY NOT EXPECTING A                   
SIMILAR FOG SCENARIO AS SEEN TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH             
TO PREVENT GOOD FOG FORMATION.                                                  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO BELIEVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING MIGHT BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN AS                 
MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE OF THE BUNCH...DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC                    
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...CUTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD              
LEAD TO DECENT WAVE DEVELOPMENT ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF                            
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LAKES INTO THE               
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH THEN SHOULD RIDE NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD EXPECT A DECENT SLUG OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS TO FOLLOW SUITE...WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY CLEARING THE              
AREA BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THREAT WOULD ALSO RAMP UP IN THE             
WARM SECTOR (WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE PARTS OR ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER                
MICHIGAN) AS SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE WAVE.                 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW             
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.                             
MSB                                                                             
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT               
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME                     
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RESIDUAL LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE               
CWA. DRY WX WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH               
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN SETTLE INTO THE REGION. DRY WX             
WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EVEN THRU MONDAY              
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE            
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TALE END OF A WARM FRONT               
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPS              
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS                
WILL INCREASE FROM THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY              
AND THEN INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL WARM FROM                 
AROUND 50 SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE MID               
AND UPPER 50S BY MONDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-015.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1230 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHCS AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.                             
ORGANIZED CONVECTION/BOWING STRUCTURE OVER ERN IA ASSOCIATED WITH               
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ERN NEBRASKA. 12Z RUC AND NAM INDICATE A               
JUICY ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OVER SRN WI AND NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES               
ARE FCST TO BE 1000-1500 J/KG. EXPECT MCS/BOW ECHO TO PROPAGATE                 
ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SPC IS CONTEMPLATING A SVR              
TSTM WATCH.                                                                     
I AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THIS ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURE                        
MAY ROB DEEP MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO FORM OVER UPR MI THIS AFTERNOON.            
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND ERN UPR MI MAY ALSO LIMIT                     
HEATING/INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE MID-UPR 60S DEWPOINTS.               
MODIFIED MODEL SNDGS AND FCST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALSO SEEM TO               
SUGGEST MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AT BEST FOR CONVECTION TO                          
OCCUR.                                                                          
GIVEN THAT MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS BOTH SUGGEST A DRIER FCST THIS                
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE DECIDED TO             
TRIM BACK RAIN CHCS TO JUST THE SCNTRL SECTIONS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS               
(UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F) COULD ALLOW NRN FRINGE OF MCS TO CLIP THESE               
AREAS AND BRING IN SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL               
KEEP LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN THERE. EXPECT THE REST OF THE CWA TO STAY            
DRY.                                                                            
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP. CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT                  
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS...DECIDED TO SIGNIFICANTLY               
MODIFY THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. 850MB ISOTHERMAL GRADIENT...CURRENTLY            
SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND INTO LOWER MI WILL SHIFT NORTH                   
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT AS THIS HAPPENS DRY AIR FROM THE WEST            
WILL INHIBIT BOTH ITS MOVEMENT NORTH AND MOISTENING OF THE LOWER                
LEVELS OVER OUR CWA. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN              
JUST DOES NOT LOOK GOOD AT ALL. TRIMMED BACK WEATHER GRIDS AND KEPT             
PRECIP. CHANCES ONLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL THEN EASTWARD. EVEN THESE             
AREAS DON`T APPEAR TO BE GOOD CANDIDATES FOR RAIN. EACH                         
MODEL...GFS...NAM...GEM...UKMET HAVE BEEN RESOLVING THIS ISSUE                  
BETTER OVER EACH CONSECUTIVE RUN AND HAVE KEPT PRECIP CONFINED                  
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MOST NOTABLY WITH THE NAM WHICH IS NO             
LONGER TRYING TO PUT 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH                  
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE PRECIP...THOUGH IT REALLY DOESN`T LOOK GOOD FOR            
RAIN TODAY. USED HPC IDEA FOR PRECIP. TODAY...JUST TRIMMED DOWN THE             
VALUES.                                                                         
BY THIS EVENING A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WILL SLIDE                   
EAST AND LOOKS TO HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO                  
PRODUCE PRECIP. TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.                          
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DECENT AS WEAK SURFACE                 
RIDGING UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. 500MB             
VORT SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY BUT LACKS ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE MOMENT            
TO ALLOW FOR POPS ON SATURDAY.                                                  
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...FLOW BECOMES             
ZONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. S/W            
PASSING OVER THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE YIELD NICE SETUP FOR PRECIP.                 
POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY. NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE WX GRIDS DURING             
THIS TIME FRAME.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VLIFR CIGS AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER AT KSAW             
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY WITH MIXING FROM            
DIURNAL HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AT               
KSAW. KCMX WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR AS WELL. TOOK CHANCE OF RAIN OUT              
OF TAFS AS APPEARS VERY LOW NOW WITH BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH                 
WHICH WILL ROB AREA OF MOISTURE. CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW ENOUGH TO                
KEEP OUT OF TAFS AND LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO             
BE PUT BACK IN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FOG WILL CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING                  
BEFORE MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE            
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KT ON THE LAKE                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON FRI AS A FRONT MOVES            
THROUGH. NO GALES FORESEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
DISCUSSION...PEARSON                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...GM                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
735 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...CHALLENGING TAF CYCLE AS DISORGANIZED SURFACE BOUNDARY              
HOVERS OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO POSSIBLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM              
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS              
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF             
UNTIL THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL                 
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AT THIS JUNCTURE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...SO WILL               
COVER WITH A LONG DURATION VCTS GROUP AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT.                 
IF/WHEN STORMS AFFECT TAF SITES...PERIODS OF MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS             
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS            
TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT SOUTH              
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.                                                              
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 433 AM                                                     
EARLY MORNING SURFACE/MOSAIC RADAR/UPPER AIR/SATELLITE AND RUC                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION...STRETCHING FROM EXTREME             
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ONCE                 
AGAIN CONVOLUTING SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS OVER THE LAKES REGION.                
WHILE RATHER DIFFUSE AT THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS OUTFLOW FROM                    
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN PROCESS OF REESTABLISHING STATIONARY FRONT                 
(AFTER PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM                
FRONT) BACK SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEST INTO THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH LIKE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WARM MOIST ASCENT ON              
NOSE OF MODEST 850MB LOW LEVEL JET (850MB PROFILE DATA SHOWING 25 TO            
35 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS) PERPENDICULARLY                     
BISECTING THIS EAST/WEST BOUNDARY...COINCIDENT WITH SOME LOW                    
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...ONCE             
AGAIN SERVING AS THE IMPETUS FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.              
AS FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER...BESIDES AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN              
EXTENT OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN MCS SKIMMING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...REST OF            
AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COMBINATION OF HIGH               
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS WELL AS SOME LOW OVERCAST AS MOISTURE                
GETS TRAPPED BELOW STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION. BIGGEST                   
CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WEATHER RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN             
WHERE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED             
TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG. RATHER MILD NIGHT...EVEN BY LATE AUGUST                  
STANDARDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST               
CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE WHEN/IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
WILL ADVANCE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SEVERE ASSESSMENT WILL ALSO HAVE              
TO BE ADDRESSED AS SPC GRAPHICS MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF              
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                           
TODAY...RIGHT OFF THE BAT WOULD LIKE TO STATE THIS IS A VERY                    
CHALLENGING...AND SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE              
OUTFLOWS HIGHLY DICTATE EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND AS                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOTH PROPER INITIATION (MOST HAVE              
NO SEMBLANCE OF EXTENT OF ONGOING CONVECTION) AND CONVECTIVE                    
FEEDBACK ISSUES. LIKE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS                  
DETERMINING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF WARM FRONTAL PUSH AS NEXT IN SERIES             
OF SHORTWAVES...SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL                
KANSAS...GLIDES NORTHEAST INTO THE LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. WITH              
MODELS STRUGGLING AS SUCH...WILL RELY HIGHLY ON PATTERN RECOGNITION             
AND RECENT PAST HISTORY TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.               
GUT FEELING IS WITH MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THAT ACTIVE            
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO THE AREA.                   
THUS...WILL TREND FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS                                
DIRECTION...TAPERING POPS SOUTH TO NORTH AND KEEPING EVERYTHING IN              
CHANCE CATEGORY. WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND                  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY (ALBEIT STAYING SCATTERED) AS             
DESTABILIZATION (THINKING WE WILL AT LEAST GET SOME BREAKS IN THE               
OVERCAST) AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED                
KANSAS SHORTWAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...IF              
MODEL DERIVED POINT SOUNDINGS CAN BE BELIEVED THROUGH THEIR VERTICAL            
STRUCTURE (A BIG IF)...ML CAPE OVER NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING APPROACHES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH                     
INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT APPROACHES 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS 40 TO             
50 KNOT 500MB SPEED MAX CUT ACROSS THE AREA...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A               
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY              
CONCERN WOULD BE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60MPH AS LARGE HAIL THREAT              
WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN HIGH (14.5KFT) FREEZING HEIGHTS. HEAVY RAIN              
ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH PWATS ON THE              
ORDER OF 1.90 INCHES AND DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH. LIKE                          
YESTERDAY...HIGH BUST POTENTIAL ON TEMPERATURES OWNING TO AMOUNT OF             
SUNSHINE. WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER END OF                
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S             
SOUTH.                                                                          
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS                
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH             
THE NIGHT. FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT POSSIBLE SEVERE                 
THREAT FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY                   
MORNING HOURS...PER SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK. GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF                  
CONFIDENCE ON LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PLACEMENTS AND STRENGTH OF MID                 
LEVEL WAVES...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED LIKELY WORDING TO CHANCE              
CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD. MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LOWS ONLY                
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. TENTATIVELY NOT EXPECTING A                   
SIMILAR FOG SCENARIO AS SEEN TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH             
TO PREVENT GOOD FOG FORMATION.                                                  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO BELIEVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING MIGHT BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN AS                 
MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE OF THE BUNCH...DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC                    
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...CUTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD              
LEAD TO DECENT WAVE DEVELOPMENT ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF                            
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LAKES INTO THE               
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH THEN SHOULD RIDE NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD EXPECT A DECENT SLUG OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS TO FOLLOW SUITE...WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY CLEARING THE              
AREA BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THREAT WOULD ALSO RAMP UP IN THE             
WARM SECTOR (WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE PARTS OR ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER                
MICHIGAN) AS SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE WAVE.                 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW             
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.                             
MSB                                                                             
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT               
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME                     
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RESIDUAL LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE               
CWA. DRY WX WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH               
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN SETTLE INTO THE REGION. DRY WX             
WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EVEN THRU MONDAY              
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE            
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TALE END OF A WARM FRONT               
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPS              
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS                
WILL INCREASE FROM THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY              
AND THEN INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL WARM FROM                 
AROUND 50 SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE MID               
AND UPPER 50S BY MONDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-015.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
433 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SURFACE/MOSAIC RADAR/UPPER AIR/SATELLITE            
AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION...STRETCHING FROM             
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN                       
KANSAS...ONCE AGAIN CONVOLUTING SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS OVER THE                
LAKES REGION. WHILE RATHER DIFFUSE AT THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS                   
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION HAS BEGUN PROCESS OF REESTABLISHING                     
STATIONARY FRONT (AFTER PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS                   
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT) BACK SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN            
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH LIKE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WARM                
MOIST ASCENT ON NOSE OF MODEST 850MB LOW LEVEL JET (850MB PROFILE               
DATA SHOWING 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS)                  
PERPENDICULARLY BISECTING THIS EAST/WEST BOUNDARY...COINCIDENT WITH             
SOME LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST                
FLOW...ONCE AGAIN SERVING AS THE IMPETUS FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE             
COMPLEXES. AS FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER...BESIDES AFOREMENTIONED            
NORTHERN EXTENT OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN MCS SKIMMING OUR SOUTHERN                   
ZONES...REST OF AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A                   
COMBINATION OF HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS WELL AS SOME LOW                 
OVERCAST AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL                 
INVERSION. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WEATHER RESIDES ACROSS                 
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND INCREASING LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG. RATHER MILD                       
NIGHT...EVEN BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID            
60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE WHEN/IF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SEVERE              
ASSESSMENT WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED AS SPC GRAPHICS MAINTAIN              
A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO                 
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
TODAY...RIGHT OFF THE BAT WOULD LIKE TO STATE THIS IS A VERY                    
CHALLENGING...AND SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE              
OUTFLOWS HIGHLY DICTATE EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND AS                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOTH PROPER INITIATION (MOST HAVE              
NO SEMBLANCE OF EXTENT OF ONGOING CONVECTION) AND CONVECTIVE                    
FEEDBACK ISSUES. LIKE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS                  
DETERMINING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF WARM FRONTAL PUSH AS NEXT IN SERIES             
OF SHORTWAVES...SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL                
KANSAS...GLIDES NORTHEAST INTO THE LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. WITH              
MODELS STRUGGLING AS SUCH...WILL RELY HIGHLY ON PATTERN RECOGNITION             
AND RECENT PAST HISTORY TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.               
GUT FEELING IS WITH MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THAT ACTIVE            
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO THE AREA.                   
THUS...WILL TREND FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS                                
DIRECTION...TAPERING POPS SOUTH TO NORTH AND KEEPING EVERYTHING IN              
CHANCE CATEGORY. WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND                  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY (ALBEIT STAYING SCATTERED) AS             
DESTABILIZATION (THINKING WE WILL AT LEAST GET SOME BREAKS IN THE               
OVERCAST) AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED                
KANSAS SHORTWAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...IF              
MODEL DERIVED POINT SOUNDINGS CAN BE BELIEVED THROUGH THEIR VERTICAL            
STRUCTURE (A BIG IF)...ML CAPE OVER NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING APPROACHES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH                     
INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT APPROACHES 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS 40 TO             
50 KNOT 500MB SPEED MAX CUT ACROSS THE AREA...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A               
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY              
CONCERN WOULD BE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60MPH AS LARGE HAIL THREAT              
WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN HIGH (14.5KFT) FREEZING HEIGHTS. HEAVY RAIN              
ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH PWATS ON THE              
ORDER OF 1.90 INCHES AND DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH. LIKE                          
YESTERDAY...HIGH BUST POTENTIAL ON TEMPERATURES OWNING TO AMOUNT OF             
SUNSHINE. WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER END OF                
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S             
SOUTH.                                                                          
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS                
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH             
THE NIGHT. FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT POSSIBLE SEVERE                 
THREAT FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY                   
MORNING HOURS...PER SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK. GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF                  
CONFIDENCE ON LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PLACEMENTS AND STRENGTH OF MID                 
LEVEL WAVES...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED LIKELY WORDING TO CHANCE              
CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD. MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LOWS ONLY                
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. TENTATIVELY NOT EXPECTING A                   
SIMILAR FOG SCENARIO AS SEEN TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH             
TO PREVENT GOOD FOG FORMATION.                                                  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO BELIEVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING MIGHT BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN AS                 
MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE OF THE BUNCH...DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC                    
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...CUTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD              
LEAD TO DECENT WAVE DEVELOPMENT ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF                            
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LAKES INTO THE               
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH THEN SHOULD RIDE NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD EXPECT A DECENT SLUG OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS TO FOLLOW SUITE...WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY CLEARING THE              
AREA BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THREAT WOULD ALSO RAMP UP IN THE             
WARM SECTOR (WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE PARTS OR ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER                
MICHIGAN) AS SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE WAVE.                 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW             
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.                             
MSB                                                                             
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT               
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME                     
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RESIDUAL LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE               
CWA. DRY WX WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH               
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN SETTLE INTO THE REGION. DRY WX             
WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EVEN THRU MONDAY              
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE            
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TALE END OF A WARM FRONT               
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPS              
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS                
WILL INCREASE FROM THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY              
AND THEN INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL WARM FROM                 
AROUND 50 SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE MID               
AND UPPER 50S BY MONDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 104 AM                                                       
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 3 AM. IN               
THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE                      
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70. WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING                
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT            
TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE DEWPOINTS. IN                
TERMS OF TAF SITES...THE ONLY SITE TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE                      
KPLN...WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO AROUND A MILE BY MORNING.                 
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 9 TO            
12 HOURS. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH                    
TOMORROW...SPAWNING SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT            
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL COVER THIS               
POSSIBILITY WITH VICINITY WORDING.                                              
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-015.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
117 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TRIMMED BACK POPS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR S CNTRL AS RECENT TAMDAR                  
SDNGS/ RAOBS SHOW DRIER AIR ABV SHALLOW MSTR FM MN INTO THE NW                  
ZNS...WHICH LATEST RUC/UKMET SHOW SPREADING ENEWD OVERNGT. LOWERED              
FCST TEMPS A BIT OVER THE FAR W TO ACCOUNT FOR INFLUX OF THIS DRIER             
AIR (THE MIXING OF WHICH CAUSED THE DWPT TO FALL AS LOW AS THE UPR              
40S AT CMX LATE IN THE AFTN)...BUT CONSIDERABLE HI CLD BLOWING OFF              
CNVCTN WELL TO THE S WL LIKELY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL DESPITE              
LGT WINDS. EVEN THOUGH THE DRY AIR WL BE MOVING IN ALF...MORE                   
STUBBORN LLVL MSTR...ESPECIALLY NR LK MI/BAY OF GREEN BAY...WL                  
RESULT IN FOG FORMATION MAINLY OVER THE E HALF. 02Z VSBY AT ISQ DOWN            
TO 3/4SM IN LGT SLY FLOW OFF THE LK WATERS. WENT WITH ADVISORY IN               
THE EAST AS VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR MORE AT MOST SITES.                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS UPPER LOW OVER NRN                    
MANITOBA WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE            
RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL HELP LIFT A                
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION              
ON THU. MORNING STRATUS HAS GENERALLY BURNED OFF OVER THE WRN HALF              
OF THE CWA AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT LOW CLOUDS               
STILL PERSIST OVER SCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES.                                     
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THU)...                                                 
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON FOG POTENTIAL AND THEN TIMING OF            
CONVECTION INTO CWFA LATE TONIGHT INTO THU.                                     
LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS (LOW TO MID 60S) ALONG WITH MID-LVL                   
SUBSIDENCE THIS EVENING COULD LEAD TO MORE STRATUS/FOG FORMATION                
TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL LIKELY BE OVER ERN HALF COUNTIES              
WHERE DEVELOPING LIGHT SSE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD AID                     
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING. LOOK FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS TO LINGER INTO THU               
MORNING AS THICKENING MID CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING SRN ROCKIES                   
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.                                         
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF S/WV ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SRN               
ROCKIES. NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WHILE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER AND                
MORE OPEN WAVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...FOLLOWED ALONG NCEP IDEA OF                 
COMPROMISE SOLN BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GFS. ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS SOLN/QPF            
FIELDS SUGGEST A MUCH DRIER FCST FOR UPR MI...BELIEVE FAVORABLE                 
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM 120+ KT               
250 MB JET MAX ALONG WITH ASSOC FGEN FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT            
RAINFALL...PERHAPS EXCEEDING A HALF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN            
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WHILE THE RAIN WILL NOT BE A DROUGHT BUSTER IT            
WILL AID WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS. KEPT IN GOING LIKELY POPS FOR            
THU AFTERNOON PER PREVIOUS FCST. SPC HAS SRN MNM COUNTY IN SLIGHT               
RISK FOR DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BUT SINCE MODELS SUGGEST BEST                
INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF FCST AREA AND FACT THAT            
CLOUDS COULD FURTHER STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE...AVOIDED MENTION OF                  
POTENTIAL SVR IN HWO FOR THU.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CWA WILL BE EXITING TO THE                
EAST BY 09Z FRIDAY.  THE 06Z NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z             
CANADIAN BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS WILL PLAY A                
SIGNIFICANT ROLL IN THE TIMING OF THE EXITING PRECIPITATION.  THE               
500MB FEATURE ARE REFLECTED BY A SIMILAR TIMING ISSUE AT THE                    
SURFACE.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS WOULD PLACE THE WEAKER SURFACE LOW              
JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON BY 06Z FRIDAY...WHILE            
THE NAM WOULD PLACE IT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  INITIAL                    
FEELINGS ON THIS IS TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN OUTPUT.              
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO NOT GO STRAIGHT WITH ITS OUTPUT EITHER...AS             
THE GFS PLACES A PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN                    
MENOMINEE COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT VERIFY.  THE GFS SOLUTION                
ALSO SEEMS BE BE BACKED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.            
WITH THE LARGE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CANADIAN                  
PROVINCES...LARGER SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE                 
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH ZONAL TO                 
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FIGURED THEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE             
OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS THE 500MB LOW DIVES FARTHER SOUTHWARD AND            
THE RIDGE GAINS STRENGTH AND PUSHES TO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND                  
ATLANTIC STATES.                                                                
SO...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR                    
RECEIVING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.                 
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM MAY BE TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH TO BRING                      
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE UPPER PENINUSLA.                        
ONCE AGAIN THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS ON TRACKING THE SURFACE               
LOW UP FROM NORTHERN TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON             
AND TO LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SATURDAY.                 
THIS TIME THE NAM IS ABOUT 9 HOURS SLOWER...AND AS WITH THE THURSDAY            
EVENING LOW REMAINS STRONGER.                                                   
HPC PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN.                      
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE...BUT STILL CUT BACK AND TRIED              
TO GET A LITTLE BETTER TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR             
THE TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.                                                        
GRID WISE...SOME OF THE LARGER SCALE CHANGES INCLUDED...                        
ADDING FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASED                
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE                
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.                                                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE                
WEST AND STILL A SOUTHERLY PUFF AND WARMER AIR ALOFT EAST...WILL                
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST AND COOL THINGS OFF A LITTLE              
MORE WEST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SINCE HI CLD HAS THINNED...OPTED TO GO WITH PREDOMINANT IFR                     
VSBYS/CIGS AT SAW WITH UPR DRYING OVER STUBBORN LLVL MOISTURE TNGT.             
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID MRNG ON THU WITH ONSET OF                   
DIURNAL HTG/MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR ABV SHALLOW MOIST LYR. DRY AIR               
SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX/INL SDNGS WL BE MORE DOMINANT AT CMX...SO FCST             
NO RADIATION FOG THERE AS DWPT MIXED OUT INTO THE MID-UPR 40S AT CMX            
YDAY AFTN. WITH LLVL DRY AIR PERSISTING AT CMX THRU THE DAY ON                  
THU...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. BROUGHT A CHC OF -SHRA AT BOTH             
SITES TNGT WITH UPR DISTURBANCE RIDING NEWD...BUT LLVL DRY AIR                  
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KT THROUGH THE FCST PD OVER THE WEST HALF            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND               
THEN AGAIN ON SAT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER             
GREAT LAKES. LINGERING MOIST DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON            
THU WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE NEXT             
24-36 HOURS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY MIZ006-007-012>014-085 UNTIL 12Z THU.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JV                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...JV                                                                     
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
104 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY            
3 AM. IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE             
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70. WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING                
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT            
TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE DEWPOINTS. IN                
TERMS OF TAF SITES...THE ONLY SITE TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE                      
KPLN...WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO AROUND A MILE BY MORNING.                 
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 9 TO            
12 HOURS. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH                    
TOMORROW...SPAWNING SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT            
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL COVER THIS               
POSSIBILITY WITH VICINITY WORDING.                                              
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1009 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007/                                 
LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS AN                   
INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER                     
MICHIGAN...STRETCHING BACK INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE WARM FRONT               
WHICH HAD EARLIER PUSHED ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND THE STRAITS IS NOW            
VERY ILL DEFINED THANKS TO THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH. BY THE              
TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE...EXPECT THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY TO BE                
REDEFINED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. RADAR TRENDS              
SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL STAY OUT OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE                   
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...JUST MISSING GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES.              
STRATIFORM PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE ACTION DOWN SOUTH HAS CREPT               
INTO AREAS BETWEEN MANISTEE AND TRAVERSE CITY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS              
TO LIKELY SOUTH OF M-72 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM RAIN THIS                 
EVENING. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT AFTER 2 AM...WITH JUST              
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF M-55 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.            
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK...FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER                   
60S...WITH A FEW SPOTS FAILING TO FALL BELOW 70...MAINLY NEAR THE               
LAKES.                                                                          
THAT TAKES US INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT IS              
NOW SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SHOWER               
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                
HOWEVER...WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING OFF TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN             
WISCONSIN...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD HELP TO AGAIN            
PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK OK                
ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH AROUND                         
MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUED LIKELY POPS WITH THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS             
SHORTWAVE TOMORROW EVENING. CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS IN THE                      
FORECAST...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...WHERE IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO              
SEE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                        
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007/                         
A TOUGH FORECAST WITH THE UPCOMING NIGHT INTO THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
DAYS AS A SFC TROUGH/WARM/STATIONARY/COLD FRONT IS SETTLING IN                  
ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS MESS SEEMS TO HAVE            
RIDDEN IN PRETTY QUICKLY ON THE CLOUD COVER HOLES THAT HAVE ALLOWED             
THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS HAVE                
BEEN RISING FAST WELL WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND A FEW                 
AROUND 70F. THE 500 MB RIDGE IS NOW EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE                 
TROUGH NOW TO THE WEST. THIS BRINGS A FLAT TO CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE              
JET PATTERN OVER N LOWER. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR               
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                            
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...CURRENTLY, WITH THE TROUGH BEING A LITTLE MORE               
DEFINED NEAR ANJ, THE SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED MAINLY OVER WESTERN                
CHIPPEWA AND LUCE COUNTIES AS WELL AS WHITEFISH BAY. WITH THE                   
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC, NAM, AND GFS BEING CAPPED OR NEUTRAL, NONE              
OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN REALIZED SO WOULD EXPECT THAT NOTHING               
HAPPENS EARLY, AND THAT THE MAIN ACTION HAPPENS WITH THE GROWING MCS            
OUT WEST IN IOWA/WISCONSIN ALONG THE NOW STALLED COLD FRONT. SO IN              
THE GRIDS WILL HAVE SOME SORT OF ESCALATING POPS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS            
BEING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE QUITE CONFUSING AT THE                 
MOMENT WITH THEM INSISTING THAT IT RAINS FOR ALMOST 48 HOURS. THE               
GFS HAS FEEDBACK BOMBS AND THE NAM LOOKS TO TRY TO WRING OUT ANY                
INSTABILITY WITH THE BMJ PARAMETERIZATION, LEADING TO ITS OWN                   
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS, ALTHOUGH IN THE QPF FIELD THE BOMBS LOOK SMALLER.            
HOWEVER, THE GFS AND NAM TOGETHER ARE POINTING TO SOMETHING LATE                
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THAT WOULD COME THROUGH, SO HAVE THE            
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME.                                          
LUTZ                                                                            
LONGER TERM...COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO PANNING OUT. SFC                         
TROUGHS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVOLUTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN OVER            
THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS AND WILL BE KEY FOR FORECASTING WHO GETS                   
RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY...A GOOD SOAKING. WARMTH AND MOISTURE SURGE              
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN IS THE FIRST SIGN THAT WILL             
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE (CONTAINING THE DEEPER               
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR SOUTH) BECOMING DRAPED            
ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION AND WAFFLING OVER NRN MICHIGAN OVER THE               
NEXT 60-72 HOURS. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LAY DOWN THE TRACK FOR 3               
SEPARATE SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT WILL BRING A SUCCESSION OF MODERATE              
TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS.                                                     
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL PREFACE THIS DISCUSSION              
WITH THE FACT THAT EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IS PARAMOUNT.             
THESE DETAILS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO EVOLUTION OF                  
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS THAT COULD DRIVE THE BOUNDARY                 
FURTHER IN AND OUT OF NRN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...AS FOR NOW...CURRENT              
FRONTAL ZONE IS ALREADY SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO NRN                
LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME PRETTY MUCH                
ALIGNED WITH THIS BOUNDARY FROM SW TO NE...WITH A SERIES OF                     
SHORTWAVES SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ONE OTHER CAVEAT HERE IS             
THAT FEEDBACK ISSUES ARE GREAT WITH BOTH MODELS...SO THE INTENSITY              
OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE MOSTLY DISREGARDED. HOWEVER...THE FACT                
THAT THEY ARE THERE IS AT LEAST MORE BELIEVABLE. THEREFORE...THE                
FIRST OF THESE WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT             
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BE CLOSE ON IT`S HEELS. NAM SUGGESTS THAT             
THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE MAYBE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...              
WHILE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS SUGGESTS THURSDAY EVENING. THE THIRD              
WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE                   
INDIVIDUAL WAVES WILL BE MORE THAN DIFFICULT TO TIME AS WELL...AND              
WILL ALSO SERVE TO WAVER THE FRONTAL ZONE AROUND NRN MICHIGAN.                  
SEVERE WEATHER WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES IS A POSSIBILITY AND WILL            
RESIDE AROUND AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE (WHICH...               
AGAIN...EXACT LOCATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN) WHERE THE                  
REGION WILL BE AFFECTED BY RIGHT REAR QUADS OF WEAKISH 100KT UPPER              
JET...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 35-40KTS AND H7-H5                
LAPSE RATES LIKELY STEEPENING TO NEAR 6.5C/KM WITH EACH WAVE. ACTUAL            
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS KEY TOO...AND ATTM...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING            
ALOT OF MUCAPE AT NIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON SBCAPE THAT COULD RISE TO              
NEAR 1500-2000J/KG (OF COURSE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON CLOUDS/AMOUNT OF              
HEATING...NOT TO MENTION THIS IS LIKELY THE MOST DIFFICULT PARAMETER            
TO ASSESS IN THIS SCENARIO). ALL-IN-ALL...WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH THE            
FORECAST AND KEEP SOME SORT OF CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE             
FORECAST EACH PERIOD...FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY             
NIGHT. I WILL TRY...RELUCTANTLY...TO NAIL DOWN THE LIKELY TIMES                 
WHICH SEEM TO BE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY                     
EVENING...AND AGAIN VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (WILL KEEP               
THE LATTER IN 40% CHANCE ZONE RIGHT NOW THOUGH). WITH PRECIPITABLE              
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 INCHES OVER THIS PERIOD OF TIME...A FEW            
REGIONS MAY GET HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS              
WILL RANGING FROM THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S IN EASTERN UPPER TO THE             
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S NEAR THE SAG BAY. LOWS SHOULD WIND UP BEING IN            
THE 60S BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RATHER MUGGY.                
STAY TUNED...DETAILS WILL COME WITH LATER FORECASTS.                            
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WITH            
LATEST DATA FOR SATURDAY...WHICH HAS THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE            
SAGINAW BAY AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE FOR                  
PRECIP IN FOR SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY               
AIR MOVE IN...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST                 
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE              
REGION...BUT THIS DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE A STRONG FROPA AND              
AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED. WILL LEAVE CHANCES               
FOR RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM...UNTIL THINGS LOOK MORE CONDUCIVE            
TO RAIN.   SMD                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
100 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATED FOR AVIATION 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                  
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW               
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE WAVES                  
ARE AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN SD/NE.                        
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NAM/GFS PROGGED 305K SURFACE               
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A                
HEALTHY AREA OF 700MB/850MB THETA E ADVECTION. AREA ALSO REMAINS                
IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET TODAY.                  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH                
CENTRAL MN...WHERE PWATS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES. EXPECT EXTENSIVE                  
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TO HINDER WARMING TODAY...SO HAVE                 
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY                 
BETWEEN 70 AND 75. H85 FRONT SHOULD STILL BE HUNG UP OVER THE                   
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z FRI...WITH                     
UPSTREAM LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH                  
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                          
NAM/GFS/UKMET MODELS ALL DEPICT SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH                
CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...DURING WHICH A DRY FORECAST AND                
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE              
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH               
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD               
FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...DURING                
WHICH GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIP PROBS ARE ON THE INCREASE. PREVIOUS                   
FORECAST HANDLED THIS WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS INTRODUCED BETWEEN                
00Z-12Z TUESDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../FOR 18Z TAFS/                                                      
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING ACROSS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS            
UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. MVFR CIG/VSBYS WITH THE            
RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS AREA...ENDING BY 20Z AT AXN AND LASTLY AT               
EAU. CLEARING DURING THE EVENING AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM AGAIN MAINLY AFTER 08Z.  MENTION                
IFR/LIFR CIG/VSBY IN FOG AT STC/RNH/EAU. WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST SKY            
BREAKS/CLEAR.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION AFD                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
658 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW               
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE WAVES                  
ARE AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN SD/NE.                        
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NAM/GFS PROGGED 305K SURFACE               
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A                
HEALTHY AREA OF 700MB/850MB THETA E ADVECTION. AREA ALSO REMAINS                
IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET TODAY.                  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH                
CENTRAL MN...WHERE PWATS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES. EXPECT EXTENSIVE                  
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TO HINDER WARMING TODAY...SO HAVE                 
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY                 
BETWEEN 70 AND 75. H85 FRONT SHOULD STILL BE HUNG UP OVER THE                   
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z FRI...WITH                     
UPSTREAM LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH                  
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                          
NAM/GFS/UKMET MODELS ALL DEPICT SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH                
CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...DURING WHICH A DRY FORECAST AND                
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE              
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH               
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD               
FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...DURING                
WHICH GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIP PROBS ARE ON THE INCREASE. PREVIOUS                   
FORECAST HANDLED THIS WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS INTRODUCED BETWEEN                
00Z-12Z TUESDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../FOR 12Z TAFS/                                                      
EARLY ON VFR CIG AND VSBYS AS PER DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT             
TAKEOFFS AND ARRIVALS AT ALL TAF SITES SAVE RWF. INCOMING -SHRA                 
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE SHIELD                   
DISSOLVING FOG AT THIS LOCATION LIKE ACID. VFR VSBYS WILL BE SEEN               
AT ALL TAF LOCALES BY 15Z...WITH MVFR TO VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO                 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GFS40 310K ISENTROPIC ANAL PRETTY MUCH NAILING             
DISTRIBUTION AND INTENSIFY OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTM ACROSS CWA DURING                
NEXT 12 HOURS. LI`S INDICATING A MAINLY CONVECTIVE SHOWER EVENT                 
WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS JUST SOUTH OF EAU BY 18Z. THIS COINCIDES             
WITH STRONGEST COUPLET PER NAM 250MB DIVERGENCE. DRY AIR WILL FILTER            
INTO AXN AND RWF BY LATE MORNING...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF PRECIP               
CHANCES. REMAINDER OF MN TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BY MID                
-AFTERNOON AND THE REMAINDER OF WI TAFS BY 02Z. LEFT OVER HIGH                  
CLOUD CONVECTIVE SHIELD WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS ENTIRE REGION             
BY 04Z...PROVIDING EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT FLYING CONDITIONS.                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-           
     BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-                   
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-                        
     KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE                
     LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-                  
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-                  
     WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE                          
     COUNTIES.                                                                  
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-               
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RICE-                  
     STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN COUNTIES.                                           
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-                 
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX                  
     COUNTIES.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/JVM                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH HALF AS                    
FOCUS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA.                               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 17Z WITH LINE               
OF CONVECTION IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. EXTENSIVE LOW           
CLOUDS NORTH WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
DIFFICULT FORECAST ON TAP TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SPECIFICALLY             
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PCPN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A            
NUMBER OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROF              
ACROSS THE NW CONUS...AND INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER DIVG/IMPULSES HAVE             
HELP KICK OFF LINE OF COMPLEXES FROM SD/WRN NEB/NE CO INVOF A                   
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT SRN SD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.              
MEANWHILE...VORT MAX/LLVL JET/MOIST CONVG OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA                   
RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH               
ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NRN KS/SC              
NEB. GIVEN TRENDS OF REGIONAL 88D LOOP...FAIRLY CONFIDENT CWA SHOULD            
SEE PCPN ACTIVITY THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.              
CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR TILL FROPA LATER DAY...WITH RUC                  
SHOWING MLCAPES INCREASING THROUGH 12Z-18Z TO 1500 J/KG...SUGGESTING            
APPROACHING ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN              
ITSELF. SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AS             
UPPER TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST. BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY STALLS FROM ERN IA           
TO SW KS FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THE                   
BOUNDARY EARLY ON BEFORE THE LLVL JET BEGINS SWINGING FROM S TO SW.             
WILL THEREFORE FOCUS HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND              
FRIDAY WHERE LIFT WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. NEXT DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN           
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INDUCING               
LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS              
AND LAYS PATCH OF QPF INVOF THE NRN CWA FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL ADD            
TOKEN POPS JUST IN CASE. FINALLY...MILD AND DRY SATURDAY AND                    
SUNDAY.                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WCNTRL IA SHOULD               
CONT TILL AROUND 12Z WITH OTHER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
INTO AND ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A LULL              
IN THE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING...AN INCREASE IN                 
CONVECTION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT AS A FRONT PUSHES               
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS LEFT LOW CLOUDS SCT ACROSS            
THE AREA WITH CIGS MOSTLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BUT OCNLY                 
DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.  APPEARS THERE WL BE ENOUGH CLOUD               
COVER/MIXING TO KEEP WDSPRD VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM OCCURRING THIS               
MORNING...OUTSIDE OF PCPN AREAS ANYWAY.  HOWEVER...SOME ISOLD 3SM BR            
IS POSSIBLE FOR SVRL HOURS THIS MORNING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOBERT                                                                          
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
417 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DIFFICULT FORECAST ON TAP TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SPECIFICALLY             
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PCPN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A            
NUMBER OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROF              
ACROSS THE NW CONUS...AND INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER DIVG/IMPULSES HAVE             
HELP KICK OFF LINE OF COMPLEXES FROM SD/WRN NEB/NE CO INVOF A                   
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT SRN SD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.              
MEANWHILE...VORT MAX/LLVL JET/MOIST CONVG OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA                   
RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH               
ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NRN KS/SC              
NEB. GIVEN TRENDS OF REGIONAL 88D LOOP...FAIRLY CONFIDENT CWA SHOULD            
SEE PCPN ACTIVITY THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.              
CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR TILL FROPA LATER DAY...WITH RUC                  
SHOWING MLCAPES INCREASING THROUGH 12Z-18Z TO 1500 J/KG...SUGGESTING            
APPROACHING ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN              
ITSELF. SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AS             
UPPER TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST. BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY STALLS FROM ERN IA           
TO SW KS FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THE                   
BOUNDARY EARLY ON BEFORE THE LLVL JET BEGINS SWINGING FROM S TO SW.             
WILL THEREFORE FOCUS HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND              
FRIDAY WHERE LIFT WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. NEXT DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN           
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INDUCING               
LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS              
AND LAYS PATCH OF QPF INVOF THE NRN CWA FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL ADD            
TOKEN POPS JUST IN CASE. FINALLY...MILD AND DRY SATURDAY AND                    
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WCNTRL IA SHOULD               
CONT TILL AROUND 12Z WITH OTHER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
INTO AND ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A LULL              
IN THE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING...AN INCREASE IN                 
CONVECTION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT AS A FRONT PUSHES               
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS LEFT LOW CLOUDS SCT ACROSS            
THE AREA WITH CIGS MOSTLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BUT OCNLY                 
DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.  APPEARS THERE WL BE ENOUGH CLOUD               
COVER/MIXING TO KEEP WDSPRD VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM OCCURRING THIS               
MORNING...OUTSIDE OF PCPN AREAS ANYWAY.  HOWEVER...SOME ISOLD 3SM BR            
IS POSSIBLE FOR SVRL HOURS THIS MORNING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING                           
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.                                        
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING                           
     IAZ043-055-056.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEE/CHERMOK                                                                     
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE WILL LIFT NORTH                   
OVERNIGHT. A WARM MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD         
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED                
BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER              
OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT                   
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
A BIT OF A DILEMMA FOR NW OHIO. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAS SKIRTED               
BY TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS ARE NOT DUE UNTIL ABOUT               
MIDNIGHT IN THE TOLEDO AREA. SEVERE THUNDERTORM WATCH 642 WILL                  
EXPIRE BEFORE THS STORMS ARRIVE. BEING AS THERE WILL BE NO                      
ACTIVITY BY 11 PM...HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE TSTORM BOX 642 FOR MY 4               
COUNTIES IN NW OH. TSTORM COMPLEX ROLLING ACROSS NW INDIANA IS                  
WEAKENING BUT LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST JUST ENOUGH THAT              
I AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THE STORMS WILL END. THE SEVERE ASPECT OF               
THE STORMS WILL END BUT THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                  
RAIN IF TRAINING DEVELOPS AS THE LINE OF STORMS GETS STRUNG OUT                 
WEST TO EAST. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING ALL WEEK AND THERE IS A                   
BETTER LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT BUT LESS DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SINCE              
WE ARE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE NOW. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH                   
RAIN. NONE OF THEIR SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY SGNIFICANT RAIN GETTING               
INTO NW OHIO. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED PREVIOUS EVENTS WELL THOUGH.              
DO NOT ANTICPATE THE COPIUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE SAW EARLIER IN THE               
WEEK BUT WE CANNOT HANDLE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS NW OHIO.                  
THINK THE RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF BUCYRUS AND UPPER SANDUSKY BUT                
MAY GET CLOSE TO FINDLAY. BETTER CHANCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARD                    
TOLEDO AND PORT CLINTON. WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 PM                    
FRIDAY.                                                                         
ELSEWHERE...THE SMATTERING OF STORMS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA IS                      
TAPERING OFF. RUC SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY PERSISTING                   
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF                          
SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN FCST. SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH FROM MOUNT                 
VERNON TO WOOSTER AND YTOWN.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                        
ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN WARM MOIST AIRMASS UNTIL FRONT MOVES                     
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MAV MOS GUIDANCE POPS LOW          
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREA BELOW THRESHOLD OR SLIGHT                    
CHANCE TOMORROW. BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR                
BOTH OF THE PERIODS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM TOMORROW SHOULD COME                  
FROM ANY BOUNDARIES THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MCS PASSING                
NORTH OF THE AREA. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                     
SATURDAY WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A FEW               
DAYS OF DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST            
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MOVING                
THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS APPEAR TOO FAST WITH THIS                
FRONT. HPC MANUAL PROGS FOLLOWING SLOWER GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN AND                 
ECMWF.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
TRAINING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM              
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO...LAKE ERIE...AND NORTHWEST                         
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION               
MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKE SHORE AREAS BUT I WILL LEAVE IT OUT               
OF THOSE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE IT MAY BE SO WIDELY SCATTERED AND                   
THEY MAY QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER FORMATION.                                     
OTHER PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH IS REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT ERIE AND                  
YOUNGSTOWN AS HAZE AND MIST OCCUR. DROPPED VISIBILITIES THIS                    
MORNING ACCORDINGLY.                                                            
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST                 
PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.                                                      
OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE                   
THROUGH OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND                          
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED               
ON SATURDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS BY SUNDAY.                
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL REMAIN IN              
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE               
BEEN DEVELOPING IN PLACES ALONG THIS FRONT AND THEREFORE THE CHANCE             
FOR SHRA/TS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE SSW               
PICKING UP TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS                   
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL                
LAKES...INCREASING THE GRADIENT.                                                
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE COLD             
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS             
POSSIBLE ON SAT EAST HALF...BUT BY SUNDAY WIND/WAVES SHOULD BE                  
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE LAKES.                          
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019.             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL                                                               
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK                                                             
SHORT TERM...RANDEL                                                             
LONG TERM...RANDEL                                                              
AVIATION...LOMBARDY                                                             
MARINE...OUDEMAN                                                                
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1115 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END                   
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE                  
REGION AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE                  
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS OF 11 AM...WITH SOME            
CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOME THE WESTERN MTNS AND ACROSS THE               
UPSTATE. THE STALLED BOUNDARY THAT IS BISECTING NC ALONG I-77 MAY               
HELP INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. ALSO...A                
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SHOULD HELP               
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BY MID AFTN. MADE                
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP...MAINLY INCREASING TO SOLID CHC ACROSS THE            
I-77 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE COUNTIES...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL                
HEATING BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. BASED ON 12Z GSO SOUNDING AND RUC/NAM12            
DATA...SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN LOOKS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER                     
THINKING. SO FEEL HWOGSP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.                                      
OTHERWISE...TEMP/DEWPOINTS/WINDS ALL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF              
TODAY. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NE                      
ZONES...TO MID 90S ACROSS THE UPSTATE.                                          
SHRA AND TSRA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND DEBRIS CLOUDS            
SHOULD LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY              
QUIET AND DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRI AM SHOULD FALL IN THE LOW TO MID            
70S BY SUNRISE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AXIS OF THE H5 RIDGE WILL EXTEND NE TO SW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA              
ON FRIDAY. SO DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE ABSENT. HOWEVER...LLVL                 
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE             
HIGH TERRAIN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A MODERATE AMOUNT OF CAPE               
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH            
LESS INSTABILITY OVER OVER THE PIEDMONT. PLAN TO CARRY 30/40 POPS               
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND 20 POPS FARTHER EAST. LLVL THICKNESSES ARE UP            
AROUND 1340 ON THE NAM AND 1335 ON THE GFS. THIS IS CERTAINLY GOOD              
FOR 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AND WITH HIGHER                         
DEWPOINTS...IT WILL STILL ABOUT AS BAD AS IT DID ON THOSE DAYS WE               
HIT TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OF LATE.                                                 
A NORTHERN STREAM LONG WAVE TROF DIMPLES THE WESTERLIES ON SATURDAY.            
IT LOOKS WEAKER THAN IT DID ON PREVIOUS RUNS...WHICH HAS BEEN PAR               
FOR THE COURSE FOR THIS SUMMER. THE H5 RIDGE AXIS...DESPITE                     
WEAKENING A LITTLE...WILL STILL EXTEND FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE                 
MOUNTAINS. SO ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER               
LEVEL FORCING. THE LLVL FLOW WILL BE EVEN WEAKER ON SATURDAY...BUT I            
SUSPECT WINDS IN THE 1000-850 LAYER WILL TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY                     
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE OVER ERN                     
TN...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE GOOD CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.               
THE NAM DOES THIS AND DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER THE               
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE LEE AS A RESULT...AND I/LL KEEP SOLID                  
CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.            
IF THE NAMS/S 1450+ METER THICKNESS VERIFY ON SAT...WE MAY BE                   
LOOKING AT HIGHS APPROACHING 100 AGAIN IN THE LEE.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
LATEST GFS TAKES A SURFACE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS THE NC MTNS               
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAX TEMPS            
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE WELL IN THE 90S. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH                  
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...I RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. I KEPT IN               
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME                     
CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT AND A WEAK H5 SHORT WAVE...BUT I WOULDN/T             
EXPECT COVERAGE WL BE ANY GREATER THAN IN THE TWO PRECEDING DAYS.               
HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN NEXT WEEK...AND I NOTICE THAT THE GFS LAYER RH/S             
IN THIS RUN ARE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN PAST RUNS IN THE                   
MON-WED TIME RANGE. I DIDN/T CHANGE ANYTHING BEYOND SUNDAY WITH THIS            
PACKAGE...BUT I WOULD LOOK FOR A DRIER AND WARMER TREND IN THE                  
FORECAST AS THE RIDGE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONGER...             
DRIER AND FARTHER WEST THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
STILL SOME MVFR CIGS AT HKY...BUT LOOK TO MIX OUT TO 6000 OR MORE FT            
BY 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR THIS AFTN WITH SCT TS ACROSS THE REGION (SEE            
BELOW).                                                                         
THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE PUSHES WEST...ALLOWING A            
WEAK VORT TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. MODERATE                 
INSTABILITY...WEAK LIFT...AND INVERTED PIEDMONT TROF SHOULD YIELD               
SOME DEEP CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS                   
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z. I            
WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH OR VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS                    
AFTERNOON. I WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR ALL TERMINALS (SAVE KCLT) FROM                 
20-02. NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS              
THROUGH THE PERIOD...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS.                                
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND LIGHT MORNING             
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY             
IN THE MTNS. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...            
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY                                                               
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED                                                             
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY                                                             
LONG TERM...ARK/MCAVOY                                                          
AVIATION...ARK/JDL/NED                                                          
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
938 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO               
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST                
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING. THIS GIVING MUCH OF OUR                
FORECAST AREA A BREAK FOR THE EVENING...AND UPDATED TO DRAMATICALLY             
REDUCE OR PULL EVENING PRECIP CHANCES MOST AREAS. STILL HAD SOME                
ANVIL PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...SO MAINTAINED SOME            
HIGHER POPS THERE...THOUGH PULLED BACK QPF QUITE A BIT PRIOR TO 06Z.            
QUESTION NOW IS HOW WELL PRECIP NOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS              
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT TRANSLATES EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE.               
00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION               
SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 06Z...WITH STRONG 850MB MOISTURE            
TRANSPORT AND INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO AREAS SOUTH OF               
I-90 BY 12Z. THINK THIS ALONG WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL AID IN                
MAINTAINING TSRA INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG            
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH 09Z...THEN SLIDING THROUGH THE              
I-29 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 09Z.            
SIMILAR RETURN OF MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN ON 00Z RUC             
SO WILL HOLD ONTO GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER                
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF ERN SD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN             
MINNESOTA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ONCE SHOWERS AND STORMS                     
DEVELOP...HOWEVER WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CEILINGS MAY DROP            
AS LOW AS 1500 FT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY EXIT ERN SD             
LATE THU MORNING. IFR CEILING ARE POSSIBLE AT LOCAL TAF SITE MUCH OF            
THE DAY THU AS ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN OVER               
THE AREA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS BEGINNING TO NUDGE NEWD AGAIN INTO THE MO RIVER              
VALLEY AREAS...AND ALSO LINGERING FURTHER EWD IN THE STORM LAKE AND             
SPENCER IA AREAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE                
AFTERNOON AS A SECOND AREA OF SHRA/TS IN N CENTRAL NEB LIFTS E AND              
SLIGHTLY NEWD. ATTM...DO NOT SPREAD WIDESPREAD HVY RAIN IN NW IA                
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER              
WEST AROUND BON HOMME AND YANKTON COUNTIES...AND POINTS IMMEDIATELY             
ADJACENT TO THOSE AREAS. ONGOING NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS LIKELY                 
SUPPRESSED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE EXTREME                 
UPDRAFTS WL LIMIT THE SVR WX THREAT THIS EVENING TO S OF THE FSD                
FA...POSSIBLY SOME MARGINAL SEVERE IN OUR FAR S. THE AREA TO WATCH              
FOR WILL BE WY/WESTERN SD AS AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG            
UPPER LEVEL WAVE...THEN PROGRESS EAST. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY CLEARLY             
EVIDENT IN WRN WY THIS AFTN. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THIS             
WAVE WILL PROGRESS ON WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE 700-750MB                         
BOUNDARY/FORCING AS NE/IA CONVECTION DOMINATES. LLJ FORCING REALLY              
PEGS FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA LATE TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE            
LIFTS ENE WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN ERN CO/WRN KS. WILL DECREASE POPS               
SOME TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA UNTIL LATE. AFTER 5 TO 10                 
INCHES OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF NW IA AND SW MN OVER THE LAST 48                   
HOURS...WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.                                        
ON THUR...DECIDED TO EXTEND FFA UNTIL ABOUT 11 AM WITH THE WY WAVE              
HAVING MOVED INTO CENTRAL/WRN SD THUR MORNING. THIS WAVE INTERACTS              
WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN ERN CO/WRN KS TO                  
PRODUCE SOME MORE POSSIBLE LOCALLY HVY RAIN IN OUR ERN FA BEFORE IT             
DEPARTS BY NOON. THE H7 FRONT IS EXTREMELY STRONG THUR MORNING AS IT            
INCHES INTO THIS FA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TAILED BACK SOME HIGHER              
QPF AMOUNTS TO OUR NWRN FA THUR MORNING TOWARD HURON IN A SUBTLE                
FEED WITH THE SD WAVE...BUT SOME OVERALL DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE                  
UNDERCUTTING ALL OF THIS IN OUR FAR SWRN FA THUR MORNING AND EWD                
TOWARD YANKTON. THEREFORE THE LOWEST POPS ARE WARRANTED IN GREGORY              
CO EARLY THUR. THUR AFTN...THE SFC BOUNDARY FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH              
SWD DEEPER IN NEB AND IA WHICH WL PRODUCE ONLY LIGHTER TS/SHRA IN               
OUR SERN HALF JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LVL FRONT.                                  
DISCREPANCY EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS THUR NIGHT...AS THE GFS              
BRINGS ONE MORE STRONG WAVE ENE THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WAVE              
SCRAPES THE SE SECTION OF OUR FA...WHEREAS THE NAM HAS IT FURTHER S.            
WITH THE NAM TENDENCY TO PUSH BOUNDARIES A BIT TOO FAR SWD...OPTED              
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO ATTM...SIMILAR TO SREF OUTPUT AND KEEP            
SOME SCT POPS GOING FM SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE...BUT ELIMINATING               
THE POPS RAPIDLY HEADING N OF THERE. MORE DISCREPANCY IS NOTED ON               
FRIDAY. BUT IN GENERAL...BROAD MID LVL TROFFINESS HANGS AROUND                  
LINGERING SOME FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AROUND IN THIS AREA. MOST OF THE            
WAVE INTERACTION IS IN CENTRAL AND WRN SD ON FRIDAY WHERE THE RETURN            
LLJ IS...HOWEVER ATTM OPTED TO LEAVE OUR FAR WRN FA DRY BUT JUST                
UNDER ISOLD POPS. THIS BROAD WAVE DEPARTS FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN...WE              
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FURTURE SHIFTS OF ANY LIGHT SHRA                    
POTENTIAL MOVG EWD WITH IT. FOR TEMPS...COOLED OFF READINGS WITH THE            
CLOUD COVER ON THU AND FRI COUPLED WITH THE FAIRLY COOL NRN PLAINS              
ANTICYCLONE DOMINATING THIS AREA WITH A N TO NE FETCH OF SFC AIR.               
SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AND DID NOT ALTER OUR GOING FCST            
TEMPS FOR THAT DAY AS THE SFC WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SE.                      
IN THE EXTENDED...CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER GEM/ECMWF WITH THE             
NEXT MAJOR FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH OCCURS IN THIS FA TUE AND TUE                  
NIGHT. GUIDANCES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP READINGS IN THE SUN AND               
MON TIMEFRAME AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ALREADY HAD                
GOING...SO ALTERED MAX/MINS VERY LITTLE. THIS FRONT HAS SOME GOOD               
PUSH BEHIND IT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 11 AM THURSDAY FOR                               
     IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032.                                        
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 11 AM THURSDAY FOR                               
     MNZ080-081-089-090.                                                        
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 11 AM THURSDAY FOR                               
     NEZ013-014.                                                                
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 11 AM THURSDAY FOR                               
     SDZ068>071.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH/SL                                                                          
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
909 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES                    
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS EAST TEXAS TONIGHT. NOT                  
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THE NORTHWEST                 
GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE                  
IMAGES AND RUC80 200MB WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TUTT                
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTING WESTWARD.                          
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA SINCE                  
YESTERDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES                    
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF APPROACHES THE CWA                
FROM THE EAST. WILL UPDATE GRIDS/ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD              
SO NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. 32                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007/                         
AVIATION...SETX TAF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALY VFR FOR THE                
NEXT 24 HOURS. RURAL TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY EARLY                 
MORNING MIFG...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD HAZARD.              
TAF LOCATIONS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR                  
CONDITIONS EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF SEA BREEZE. USED                 
PROB30 GROUP TO ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE ACTIVITY IN                                 
LBX...SGR...HOU...AND IAH TAFS. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR                        
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. 44                                 
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007/                           
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING                 
ACROSS LCH THIS AFTN. WHILE THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTEN-                 
SITY SOMEWHAT THESE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...STILL CONCERNED WITH                 
ITS PERSISTENT WWD TRACK AND THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT OF TSRAS                 
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS HELD US IN GOOD                 
STEAD TODAY MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WOLVES AT BAY FOR THE                 
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY                 
IMMINENT. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE SHORT                 
TERM. OTHERWISE PROGS ARE KEEPING WITH THE GENERAL SCRIPT OF IN-                
CREASING POPS THIS WEEKEND AS THIS FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE GOES                 
ASHORE. THE INITIAL 1.8"-1.9" PWS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME                 
SCT TSRA WITH THE SEABREEZE/AFTN HEATING AGAIN ON SAT/SUN...BUT                 
MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON MONDAY AS THE TUTT LOW APPROACHES THE TX                 
BEACHES. PWS FCST TO SPIKE AOA 2.3" AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS A                 
SLOW BREAKDOWN. THE MOISTURE/UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER                 
THROUGH MID WEEK OR SO. AS FOR THE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND THAT                 
THE GFS HAS BEEN TEASING US WITH...THE 12Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF                 
WITH REGARD TO A FROPA FOR E/SE TX. HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE PAT-                
TERN STILL INDICATING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH                 
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SO...WILL OPT TO KEEP OUR FINGERS                 
CROSSED AS VISIONS OF LOWER DEWPOINTS DANCE THROUGH OUR HEADS.                  
PREV MARINE.../ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007/                               
SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED AND SEAS DOWN TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS               
THIS AFTN. TYPICAL LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW/LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS THROUGH            
THE FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE NIGHT (10 TO 15             
KTS) AND WEAKEST IN THE AFTNS (5 TO 10 KTS). SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT.             
WINDS COULD BE A BIT STRONGER AND MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A              
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO WRN GULF.  35                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  76  95  76 /  10  20  20  30  30             
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  76  94  76 /  10  30  30  40  40             
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  82  90  82 /  10  30  30  40  40             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...32                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...44                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
322 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007                                                      
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A SERIES OF UPPER               
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                  
ALOFT. FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA            
AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST                  
KARX RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS OVER FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN                    
RESPONSE TO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE AT 850-                   
700MB LAYER OUT AHEAD OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER THE LATEST RUC.             
12Z THURSDAY GFS AND NAM INITIALIZE OVERALL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY               
FLOW ALOFT WELL PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTH                  
MODELS INITIALIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND                   
WESTERN IOWA WELL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT            
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE               
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION            
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 12Z THURSDAY NAM IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH               
AND EAST THAN GFS. WILL TAKE A MODEL BLEND FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.             
BOTH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE                
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.                      
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN                 
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES                  
REGION TONIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z THURSDAY GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG               
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA                  
TONIGHT. THOUGH...BOTH MODELS AT THIS TIME NOT HANDLING SURFACE                 
FEATURES/FORCING AT LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED                   
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST RUC INDICATES STRONGEST MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 03Z           
FRIDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST RUC TONIGHT AND REDUCE PRECIPITATION             
CHANCES ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE            
ROCKY MOUNTAINS EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 18Z FRIDAY.               
THE 12Z THURSDAY GFS FARTHER NORTH WITH SURFACE FEATURES/MOISTURE               
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE THAN NAM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FORECAST               
FOR FRIDAY...DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCY IN PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT             
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING. WILL TAKE A MODEL BLEND AND DECREASE                    
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.                              
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. BOTH THE                 
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FILTERING COOLER AIR ALOFT INTO THE                 
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH                  
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT...DRIER WEATHER AND             
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS FORECAST AREA.                              
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO                    
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE 00Z THURSDAY GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT            
WITH FAST WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES               
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN DIFFERENCES IS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH              
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 00Z             
THURSDAY GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN ECMWF. THE 00Z THURSDAY GFS                   
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE              
TROUGH...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO A GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF                      
SOLUTION. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT               
LAKES REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z THURSDAY GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE               
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN FORECAST                 
AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SURFACE WARM FRONT NORTH OF            
FORECAST AREA AND FORECAST AREA CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS            
DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z THURSDAY GFS            
AND ECMWF MEAN INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO FORECAST AREA            
MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES                   
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z THURSDAY ECMWF INDICATING                
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND             
00Z THURSDAY GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATING 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY              
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO                     
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY             
INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE MODELS BUILD SURFACE RIDGE OVER CANADA INTO            
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. COOLER AIR WILL              
ADVECT INTO FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS AND                
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS FORECAST              
AREA.                                                                           
.AVIATION...                                                                    
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
SHORT-LONG TERM...DTJ                                                           
AVIATION..........BOYNE                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.                                            
OCCASIONAL MVFR IN PRECIP WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF                 
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY                
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND                   
VARIABLE. ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD MVFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING TOWARD            
12Z AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA. GREATEST CHC FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL            
PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG WITH CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP. SFC               
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AFTER 21Z AT ALL SITES HOWEVER REMNANT SFC              
MOISTURE MAY GIVE RISE TO MORE MVFR VIS AT HUF/BMG AFTER 00Z SUN.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DAYTIME/...                                   
KIND 88D IS QUIET FOR THE MOMENT.  A FEW TSRA WERE POPPING UP OVER              
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITHIN THE WATCH BOX THERE.  TSRA TIMING AND FROPA            
ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS.                                             
LAPS DATA SHOWS LIS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WHILE SBCAPES HAVE                    
INCREASED TO 1500-3200 J/KG.  A 17Z ACARS OB SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL                
INVERSION HAS ERODED BUT H7 TEMPS STILL REMAIN WARM AROUND 11C.  SPC            
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS GENERALLY DECREASING CIN BUT STILL SOME                 
LINGERING AT 18Z.  A FEW STORMS IN ILLINOIS CLOSE TO THE INDIANA                
BORDER HAVE DISSIPATED LIKELY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS.             
THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER ON THIS                 
EVENING.  WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE CWA BEFORE 21Z.  AFTER               
THAT A LINE OF STORMS WILL PASS THROUGH WITH DAMAGING WIND AND VERY             
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.                                                     
A COLD FRONT WAS OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS              
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  WILL MOSTLY LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RUC FOR FROPA             
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT             
AND INTO SATURDAY.  THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BY LATE                
SATURDAY EVENING AND END MOST OF THE RAINFALL.                                  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WITH RAIN EXPECTED.               
ON SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED TEMPS WILL STAY                
UNDER 90 FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                   
WL KEEP SLGT CHC OF TRW`S IN SATURDAY EVE AS THE UPR TROF MOVES ACRS            
AND THE CD FNT SETTLES S OF THE OH RVR. AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE A                
PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WX AS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE ERN CONUS               
WITH RIDGING ALOFT MOVING ACRS THE OH VLY AND A DRY COLUMN WITH MN              
LVL RH FM 30-40% THROUGH TUE. CHC OF TRW`S AGAIN BY WED IN NW FLOW              
REGIME. WL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS SEEN IN                 
CURRENT POST FRONTAL SFC OBS. MOS NUMBERS REFLECT THIS WELL AND ARE             
PRETTY CLOSE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648                
UNTIL 11 PM EDT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CO                                                                   
SHORT TERM...SALLY                                                              
LONG TERM...MK                                                                  
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HEAT                  
ADVISORY...                                                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
240 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                      
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
MAIN CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS FOR THE FEW HOURS AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF               
THUNDER ALONG/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                     
THE RUC 40 CAPTURED THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING PRECIP                 
ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. IT ACCURATELY                   
FORECAST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLED MOISTURE. THIS CONVECTION             
DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING AIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM                   
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP             
IS QUITE WIDESPREAD CURRENTLY ACROSS A FEW OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN                  
COUNTIES. THE RUC HAS THIS PRECIP GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAWN.            
FOR NOW...FEEL THAT CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL ERODE NEAR OR SHORTLY              
AFTER SUNRISE.                                                                  
ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT SHOWS TWO                    
MAXIMA...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND THE OTHER IN INDIANA. A               
RELATIVE MINIMUM STRETCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE               
CHANCES OF MORNING PRECIP MOVING NORTHEAST OF A BOWLING GREEN TO                
LEXINGTON LINE IS VERY SMALL.                                                   
CURRENTLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR DETROIT WITH A DIFFUSE COLD                 
FRONT LYING FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS              
WILL MOVE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES            
BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND                  
SLIGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS            
INDIANA BY EARLIER AFTERNOON...BUT LESSENS THE COVERAGE AS IT MOVES             
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE             
MODELS MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT TOWARDS 00Z...THE LACK OF ANY               
UPPER FORCING OR SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE             
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY                  
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL              
PART OF THE STATE BY LATE EVENING.                                              
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT DO EXPECT              
MID 90S AGAIN.                                                                  
JSD                                                                             
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
AFTER THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY                       
EVENING...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH             
WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE A DRY                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
WE MAY STILL SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OVER THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY WITH            
THE UPPER TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND MODELS SUGGESTING AN INVERTED                 
SURFACE TROF FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BLUE GRASS. MOISTURE IS MINIMAL              
HOWEVER AND ANY FORCING WILL BE WEAK.                                           
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...ALBEIT NOT A LARGE CHANCE...WILL COME AS A            
VERY WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA AND                    
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE A                 
ROBUST WEATHER MAKER AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH            
IT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MID/LATE WEEK.              
NO MORE 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK             
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.                    
13                                                                              
&&                                                                              
AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAFS)...                                                      
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                   
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10Z ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY               
AND THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT BWG. FROM 06Z                 
THROUGH 07Z...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL APPROACH KLEX. WILL PLACE              
VCTS THROUGH 07Z FOR KLEX...AS IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT AN                      
INDIVIDUAL CELL WILL MOVE OVER THE AIRPORT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL               
END BY 12Z.                                                                     
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING BY             
TOMORROW ACROSS SDF AND LEX...OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL               
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW                             
AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO THOSE WINDS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.                         
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SDF AND             
LEX AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARILY IFR CONDITIONS.                                 
JSD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
240 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                      
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
MAIN CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS FOR THE FEW HOURS AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF               
THUNDER ALONG/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                     
THE RUC 40 CAPTURED THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING PRECIP                 
ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. IT ACCURATELY                   
FORECAST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLED MOISTURE. THIS CONVECTION             
DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING AIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM                   
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP             
IS QUITE WIDESPREAD CURRENTLY ACROSS A FEW OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN                  
COUNTIES. THE RUC HAS THIS PRECIP GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAWN.            
FOR NOW...FEEL THAT CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL ERODE NEAR OR SHORTLY              
AFTER SUNRISE.                                                                  
ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT SHOWS TWO                    
MAXIMA...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND THE OTHER IN INDIANA. A               
RELATIVE MINIMUM STRETCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE               
CHANCES OF MORNING PRECIP MOVING NORTHEAST OF A BOWLING GREEN TO                
LEXINGTON LINE IS VERY SMALL.                                                   
CURRENTLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR DETROIT WITH A DIFFUSE COLD                 
FRONT LYING FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS              
WILL MOVE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES            
BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND                  
SLIGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS            
INDIANA BY EARLIER AFTERNOON...BUT LESSENS THE COVERAGE AS IT MOVES             
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE             
MODELS MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT TOWARDS 00Z...THE LACK OF ANY               
UPPER FORCING OR SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE             
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY                  
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL              
PART OF THE STATE BY LATE EVENING.                                              
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT DO EXPECT              
MID 90S AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE OUR HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN                 
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. JSD                                                    
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
AFTER THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY                       
EVENING...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH             
WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE A DRY                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
WE MAY STILL SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OVER THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY WITH            
THE UPPER TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND MODELS SUGGESTING AN INVERTED                 
SURFACE TROF FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BLUE GRASS. MOISTURE IS MINIMAL              
HOWEVER AND ANY FORCING WILL BE WEAK.                                           
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...ALBEIT NOT A LARGE CHANCE...WILL COME AS A            
VERY WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA AND                    
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE A                 
ROBUST WEATHER MAKER AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH            
IT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MID/LATE WEEK.              
NO MORE 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK             
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.                    
13                                                                              
&&                                                                              
AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAFS)...                                                      
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                   
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10Z ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY               
AND THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT BWG. FROM 06Z                 
THROUGH 07Z...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL APPROACH KLEX. WILL PLACE              
VCTS THROUGH 07Z FOR KLEX...AS IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT AN                      
INDIVIDUAL CELL WILL MOVE OVER THE AIRPORT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL               
END BY 12Z.                                                                     
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING BY             
TOMORROW ACROSS SDF AND LEX...OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL               
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW                             
AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO THOSE WINDS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.                         
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SDF AND             
LEX AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARILY IFR CONDITIONS.                                 
JSD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
436 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT RADAR/WV IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE ISOLTD SHOWERS CURRENTLY               
OVER CENTRAL WI OVER TIME WILL TRACK CLOSE TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN            
SHORELINE...EXTENDED CURRENT WEATHER GRID EASTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR               
THIS. ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK TOWARDS U.P. AND            
BE NEAR IWD BY 12Z OR SO.                                                       
OPTED TO ADD IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY. 500MB TROUGH PASSES                 
THROUGH CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. PREVIOUS THINKING            
WAS THIS PASSAGE WOULD BE TOO EARLY TO TAP INTO A HEATING                       
CONTRIBUTION. ALSO BETTER DYNAMICS ARE OUT OF THE FA BY THIS TIME.              
DESPITE THIS...ENOUGH MID LEVEL COOLING LOOKS TO OCCUR TO AT LEAST              
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR NOW COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE WEST            
AND CENTRAL AS SOUNDINGS OUT EAST STILL LOOK TOO DRY. THIS FEATURE              
LOOKS TO BE OUT OF HERE BY 00Z. ALSO GIVEN APPEARANCE OF QPF IN                 
NAM/GFS/RUC DURING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAKES IT EVEN HARDER              
TO KEEP FCST DRY.                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN BY SAT EVENING...THIS ALONG WITH              
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS IN THE LOW             
40S ARE LIKELY. RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS ALONG             
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. BRIEF CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD ALLOW               
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN             
STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET RADIATIONAL INFLUENCES. ALSO INCREASING                 
MOISTURE AHEAD OF TUESDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT COOLING AT                
LEAST IN THE WEST. WILL RAISE LOWS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND              
IN GUIDANCE.                                                                    
SOME INDICATIONS THAT CWA MONDAY MORNING/AFTN COULD SEE PRECIP IN               
THE WEST. LATEST GUIDANCE...UKMET/GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF RUNS/GFS                    
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME PRECIP. OCCURING IN THE EARLY                    
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN AXIS REMAINING OVER MN. DISCUSSED WITH                
SURROUNDING OFFICES PUTTING IN PRECIP. BUT OPTED TO WAIT. MON                   
MORN/AFTN LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH A STRONG WARM LAYER NOTED AROUND              
800-700MB LAYER PER BUFKIT GFS/NAM SOUNDING. STREGHTENING 850MB JET             
OF 35KT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTN               
PER 00Z GFS RUN AND THEN STREGHTENS A BIT MORE BY EARLY EVENING.                
TIMING OF LOW LEVEL JET ISN`T IDEAL AS ITS PASSING LATER IN THE                 
EVENING MIGHT BE MORE IDEAL. SO IF ANY PRECIP. OCCURS ON MONDAY IT              
WOULD BE ELEVATED...BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD HAS BASES AROUND 750MB.             
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW TO ADD IN PRECIP BUT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS             
AS IT IS THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR SURE.                                 
TIMING OF FRONT ON TUESDAY IS STILL IFFY. DPROG/DT FOR THE ECMWF                
SHOWS THE A FASTER TREND FROM THE LAST RUN...ALSO THE FRONT IS MORE             
OF AN OPEN WAVE AS OPPOSED TO THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE 00Z RUN                
FROM YESTERDAY. THE GFS IF ANYTHING THE PAST FOUR RUNS HAS BEEN                 
CONSISTENT WITH ITS TIMING...BRINING THE FRONT TO MID LAKE SUPERIOR             
BY 6Z TUES AND THRU THE CWA SOMETIME AFTER 12Z. GOOD RUN TO RUN                 
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS IS HARD TO IGNORE. THINK THE FINAL SOLUTION            
CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. IN THE END THOUGH THINK A              
FASTER SOLUTION MAY BE REALIZED. SURROUNDING OFFICES NOTED A SIMILAR            
THINKING. SEE 12PLANET LOG.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT AN INCRS IN CLD COVER LATE TNGT/EARLY SAT IN ADVANCE OF                  
SHRTWV OVER SD MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS IN SW FLOW ALF. THERE             
MAY BE SOME LGT -SHRA AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV ON SAT...BUT DRYNESS OF              
LLVLS UPSTREAM IN MN AS EVIDENCED BY RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS/RAOBS SUG              
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR AND ANY PCPN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE. LOOK FOR                 
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER ON SAT FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV/              
INFLUX OF LK MODIFIED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20KT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUN             
MORNING. THE STRONGER WINDS TODAY (AT TIMES IN THE 15-20KT RANGE)               
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SE                
PART OF THE LAKE AS WINDS BECOME NW DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL                 
STRENGTHEN SUN AFTN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS                 
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY 15-25KT WINDS DEVELOP OVER            
THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUN EVENING AND PERSIST THRU MON              
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND 20KT FOR THE            
MOST PART...THERE SHOULD BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT...                    
ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER OBSERVING PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER             
OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE AS THEY COMMONLY ARE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.             
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE A LITTLE SOONER ON TUE THAN INDICATED            
IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WINDS               
WILL EXCEED 20KT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...PEARSON                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...ROLFSON                                                       
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
430 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER               
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MN MOVING EAST.                
GFS NAM AND CANADIAN ARE SIMILAR WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST.                      
COMPARING THE RADAR VAD WINDS TO THE MODELS THE GFS AND RUC HANDLED             
LOW LEVEL WINDS BELOW 850 HPA THE BEST COMPARED TO THE NAM. SO THE              
GFS WILL BE USED. POCKET OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND 800 HPA OVER             
NORTHERN MN WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO SHIFT EAST.                            
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG CAP EXPECTED AROUND 800 HPA ON SUN            
EVEN THOUGH CAPES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES                
INTO THE REGION MON. WILL NEED LIFT AROUND 800 TO 700 HPA TO                    
OVERCOME INHIBITION MON AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN ZONES.                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TEMPS TWEAKED. SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TUE. WILL ADD A              
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. THE            
CLOUDS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON              
BEFORE SHIFT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.                             
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HOPPES                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
1032 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS OFF            
TO THE WEST...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOIST AIR.               
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY                      
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL STALL...KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE                
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH...WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANG TOUGH NEAR THE COAST AND FURTHER EAST.                  
SOME EVIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS BURNING OFF LATE THIS MORNING...AND               
DO EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL MOST AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY              
SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN               
PLACE...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT                     
ADVISORY. THE TOUGH CALL IS TEMPERATURES AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN.                  
ONCE THEY DO BURN OFF THOUGH...BELIEVE LAV NUMBERS AND TEMPS                    
SHOULD RISE RATHER QUICKLY AND GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.               
COULD BE SOME MID 90S IN PORTIONS OF NE NJ.                                     
OTHERWISE...LAPS SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS THIS                      
MORNING INDICATE PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND AREA REMAINS                    
CAPPED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS                    
AFTERNOON ONCE TEMPS CLIMB...BUT HARD TO IGNORE MODEL QPF                       
OUTPUT...WITH LITTLE ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INHIBITION               
ALONG WITH LACK OF TRIGGER TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.                      
COULD BE ISOLATED CELLS...AND ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON         
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN 1000 J/KG CAPES...BUT FEEL             
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND WEST.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND                   
OVERNIGHT NIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
EARLY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING TOO FAR OFFSHORE                 
SUNDAY. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END                             
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WE            
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. STUCK CLOSE TO THE MOS            
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.                      
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO PICKING UP ON SIMILAR SCENARIO AS WE HAD               
SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH REGARD TO MONDAY. ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW             
COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AS SPOTTY LIGHT                
RAIN. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP TEMPS MUCH LOWER THAN MAVS ARE                     
ADVERTISING. I DID WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT WAS                
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TO JUST BELOW 80. WE COULD HOWEVER SEE COOLER             
AIR IN HERE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK UNDER CLOUD COVER.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW              
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE             
IF A SIMILAR SITUATION SETS UP AS EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH PERSISTENT             
EASTERLY FLOW...AND FRONT REMAINING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BECAUSE OF               
THIS POSSIBILITY...AND WE CAN SEE THIS WITH MORE CONFIDENCE AS THIS             
TIME FRAME APPROACHES...WILL UNDERCUT TEMPS SLIGHTLY...JUST UNDER 80.           
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN              
IF SIMILAR SCENARIO PANS OUT. KEEPING IT DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL            
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT POSSIBILITY.                                        
THEN THE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER                  
TROUGH WILL STEEP NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS               
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS.              
LOOKS LIKE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS STRONG HIGH                    
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BUILDS TO THE NORTH.                  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP IN SPEED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND              
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
IFR AND LIFR SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. CLIMO FOR                   
SIMILAR SCENARIOS AT AREA AIRPORTS DOES SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT                
THROUGH THE MORNING...TO MVFR/VFR BY AROUND 16Z TO 17Z. INCREASED               
MOISTURE BENEATH LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN SOME                
AFTERNOON HAZE...MAINLY LOW END VFR VSBY AS S-SW FLOW WILL BE                   
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT...BUT WITH MVFR VSBY IN SPOTS MAINLY AT                  
KHPN/KBDR/KGON NEAR LONG ISLAND SOUND. COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT MAY              
HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT AT KJFK AFTER 18Z.                
AN ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE W TO NYC TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH             
LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONG WINDS              
WOULD BE MAIN THREAT.                                                           
CONVECTION WILL BE A THREAT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS                
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRATUS AND FOG MAY                 
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR SETUP CONCERNING LIGHTENING             
SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS. IFR               
CIGS...AND VSBYS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.                                           
LLWS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE SAT EVENING                
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH SW TURNING W LOW LEVEL JET            
OF 35KT JUST ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF THE INVERSION...1500-2000 FT. THE              
WIND PROFILE THEN WEAKENS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO             
THE REGION.                                                                     
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...VERY UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK AT THIS                
POINT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES APPEAR TO SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA             
BY LATE SUN. UNTIL IT DOES THERE COULD BE A THREAT OF A SHRA OR                 
TSRA. THEREAFTER...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST               
WEEK WITH A FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST OR              
EAST...THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY MID-WEEK.                   
DEPENDING ON EXACT POSITION OF THE HIGH...AND RH LEVELS OF ITS                  
AIRMASS...WE COULD EITHER BE LOOKING AT VFR THROUGHOUT (NOT                     
LIKELY)...NOCTURNAL LOW STRATUS AND FOG (LIKELY)...OR A PERSISTENT              
LOW OVERCAST LIKE THIS PAST WED-THU (POSSIBLE).                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN AN              
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLIDES             
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT                  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS              
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL               
SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD                
FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.                                         
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS FROM FIRE ISLAND TO MONTAUK POINT AS             
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...                
INCREASING SEAS TO MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. OTHERWISE...NO FLAGS ARE                
ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.               
AS ALWAYS...LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER                 
CONVECTION.. AT THIS TIME...NO WIDESPREAD JUMPS IN AREA RIVERS AND              
STREAMS ARE EXPECTED.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ072>076.                
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ003>006-011.            
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS                 
     AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM/AVIATION UPDATE...PW                                                  
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1110 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                     
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
AT 15Z A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDEDD FROM ST LOUIS NORTHEAST                
INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURING ALONG              
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND                  
NORTHERN INDIANA. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE WHICH                  
STRETCHED FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWEST TO BOWLING GREEN. WE EXPECT THIS            
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND                
THIS MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL             
KENTUCKY. WITH THIS IN MIND WE WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS              
ALL THE FORECAST AREA. IT STILL MAY BE A FEW HOURS BEFORE                       
STORMS DEVELOP AS THE LATEST BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A               
CAP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  WE WILL ALSO ADJUST TEMPERATURES UP                  
SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE LACK OF THICK CLOUD                   
COVER.  FORECAST OUT BY 11:15AM.  --JA                                          
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING POPS FROM SOUTHEASTERN                 
COUNTIES. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN INDIANA. DEPENDING ON EXTENT AND TIMING OF THESE                       
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE KEPT DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN                     
COUNTIES...AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITHIN THE GRIDS...HOLDING TEMPS             
IN DUBOIS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES DOWN IN THE MID 80S.                            
JSD                                                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
MAIN CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS FOR THE FEW HOURS AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF               
THUNDER ALONG/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                     
THE RUC 40 CAPTURED THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING PRECIP                 
ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. IT ACCURATELY                   
FORECAST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLED MOISTURE. THIS CONVECTION             
DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING AIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM                   
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP             
IS QUITE WIDESPREAD CURRENTLY ACROSS A FEW OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN                  
COUNTIES. THE RUC HAS THIS PRECIP GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAWN.            
FOR NOW...FEEL THAT CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL ERODE NEAR OR SHORTLY              
AFTER SUNRISE.                                                                  
ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT SHOWS TWO                    
MAXIMA...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND THE OTHER IN INDIANA. A               
RELATIVE MINIMUM STRETCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE               
CHANCES OF MORNING PRECIP MOVING NORTHEAST OF A BOWLING GREEN TO                
LEXINGTON LINE IS VERY SMALL.                                                   
CURRENTLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR DETROIT WITH A DIFFUSE COLD                 
FRONT LYING FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS              
WILL MOVE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES            
BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND                  
SLIGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS            
INDIANA BY EARLIER AFTERNOON...BUT LESSENS THE COVERAGE AS IT MOVES             
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE             
MODELS MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT TOWARDS 00Z...THE LACK OF ANY               
UPPER FORCING OR SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE             
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY                  
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL              
PART OF THE STATE BY LATE EVENING.                                              
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT DO EXPECT              
MID 90S AGAIN.                                                                  
JSD                                                                             
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
AFTER THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY                       
EVENING...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH             
WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE A DRY                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
WE MAY STILL SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OVER THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY WITH            
THE UPPER TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND MODELS SUGGESTING AN INVERTED                 
SURFACE TROF FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BLUE GRASS. MOISTURE IS MINIMAL              
HOWEVER AND ANY FORCING WILL BE WEAK.                                           
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...ALBEIT NOT A LARGE CHANCE...WILL COME AS A            
VERY WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA AND                    
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE A                 
ROBUST WEATHER MAKER AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH            
IT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MID/LATE WEEK.              
NO MORE 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK             
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.                    
13                                                                              
AVIATION (FOR 12Z TAFS)...                                                      
ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT LEX AND BWG THROUGH EARLY               
AFTERNOON. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING SCATTERED THUNDER            
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 20Z.                                                          
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT SDF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED             
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY 17Z. CIGS MAY             
GO OVERCAST AS SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS (OUTSIDE OF ANY             
STORMS) SHOULD STAY VFR. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO             
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.                                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TOMORROW MORNING AS WIND SHIFT TO             
THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES.                                                
JSD                                                                             
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
630 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                      
AVIATION (FOR 12Z TAFS)...                                                      
ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT LEX AND BWG THROUGH EARLY               
AFTERNOON. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING SCATTERED THUNDER            
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 20Z.                                                          
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT SDF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED             
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY 17Z. CIGS MAY             
GO OVERCAST AS SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS (OUTSIDE OF ANY             
STORMS) SHOULD STAY VFR. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO             
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.                                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TOMORROW MORNING AS WIND SHIFT TO             
THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES.                                                
JSD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING POPS FROM SOUTHEASTERN                 
COUNTIES. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN INDIANA. DEPENDING ON EXTENT AND TIMING OF THESE                       
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE KEPT DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN                     
COUNTIES...AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITHIN THE GRIDS...HOLDING TEMPS             
IN DUBOIS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES DOWN IN THE MID 80S.                            
JSD                                                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
MAIN CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS FOR THE FEW HOURS AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF               
THUNDER ALONG/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                     
THE RUC 40 CAPTURED THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING PRECIP                 
ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. IT ACCURATELY                   
FORECAST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLED MOISTURE. THIS CONVECTION             
DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING AIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM                   
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP             
IS QUITE WIDESPREAD CURRENTLY ACROSS A FEW OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN                  
COUNTIES. THE RUC HAS THIS PRECIP GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAWN.            
FOR NOW...FEEL THAT CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL ERODE NEAR OR SHORTLY              
AFTER SUNRISE.                                                                  
ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT SHOWS TWO                    
MAXIMA...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND THE OTHER IN INDIANA. A               
RELATIVE MINIMUM STRETCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE               
CHANCES OF MORNING PRECIP MOVING NORTHEAST OF A BOWLING GREEN TO                
LEXINGTON LINE IS VERY SMALL.                                                   
CURRENTLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR DETROIT WITH A DIFFUSE COLD                 
FRONT LYING FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS              
WILL MOVE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES            
BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND                  
SLIGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS            
INDIANA BY EARLIER AFTERNOON...BUT LESSENS THE COVERAGE AS IT MOVES             
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE             
MODELS MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT TOWARDS 00Z...THE LACK OF ANY               
UPPER FORCING OR SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE             
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY                  
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL              
PART OF THE STATE BY LATE EVENING.                                              
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT DO EXPECT              
MID 90S AGAIN.                                                                  
JSD                                                                             
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
AFTER THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY                       
EVENING...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH             
WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE A DRY                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
WE MAY STILL SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OVER THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY WITH            
THE UPPER TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND MODELS SUGGESTING AN INVERTED                 
SURFACE TROF FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BLUE GRASS. MOISTURE IS MINIMAL              
HOWEVER AND ANY FORCING WILL BE WEAK.                                           
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...ALBEIT NOT A LARGE CHANCE...WILL COME AS A            
VERY WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA AND                    
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE A                 
ROBUST WEATHER MAKER AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH            
IT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MID/LATE WEEK.              
NO MORE 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK             
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.                    
13                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT)...                                           
CURRENT RADAR/WV IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE ISOLTD SHOWERS CURRENTLY               
OVER CENTRAL WI OVER TIME WILL TRACK CLOSE TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN            
SHORELINE...EXTENDED CURRENT WEATHER GRID EASTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR               
THIS. ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK TOWARDS U.P. AND            
BE NEAR IWD BY 12Z OR SO.                                                       
OPTED TO ADD IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY. 500MB TROUGH PASSES                 
THROUGH CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. PREVIOUS THINKING            
WAS THIS PASSAGE WOULD BE TOO EARLY TO TAP INTO A HEATING                       
CONTRIBUTION. ALSO BETTER DYNAMICS ARE OUT OF THE FA BY THIS TIME.              
DESPITE THIS...ENOUGH MID LEVEL COOLING LOOKS TO OCCUR TO AT LEAST              
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR NOW COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE WEST            
AND CENTRAL AS SOUNDINGS OUT EAST STILL LOOK TOO DRY. THIS FEATURE              
LOOKS TO BE OUT OF HERE BY 00Z. ALSO GIVEN APPEARANCE OF QPF IN                 
NAM/GFS/RUC DURING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAKES IT EVEN HARDER              
TO KEEP FCST DRY.                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN BY SAT EVENING...THIS ALONG WITH              
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS IN THE LOW             
40S ARE LIKELY. RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS ALONG             
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. BRIEF CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD ALLOW               
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN             
STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET RADIATIONAL INFLUENCES. ALSO INCREASING                 
MOISTURE AHEAD OF TUESDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT COOLING AT                
LEAST IN THE WEST. WILL RAISE LOWS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND              
IN GUIDANCE.                                                                    
SOME INDICATIONS THAT CWA MONDAY MORNING/AFTN COULD SEE PRECIP IN               
THE WEST. LATEST GUIDANCE...UKMET/GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF RUNS/GFS                    
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME PRECIP. OCCURING IN THE EARLY                    
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN AXIS REMAINING OVER MN. DISCUSSED WITH                
SURROUNDING OFFICES PUTTING IN PRECIP. BUT OPTED TO WAIT. MON                   
MORN/AFTN LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH A STRONG WARM LAYER NOTED AROUND              
800-700MB LAYER PER BUFKIT GFS/NAM SOUNDING. STREGHTENING 850MB JET             
OF 35KT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTN               
PER 00Z GFS RUN AND THEN STREGHTENS A BIT MORE BY EARLY EVENING.                
TIMING OF LOW LEVEL JET ISN`T IDEAL AS ITS PASSING LATER IN THE                 
EVENING MIGHT BE MORE IDEAL. SO IF ANY PRECIP. OCCURS ON MONDAY IT              
WOULD BE ELEVATED...BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD HAS BASES AROUND 750MB.             
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW TO ADD IN PRECIP BUT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS             
AS IT IS THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR SURE.                                 
TIMING OF FRONT ON TUESDAY IS STILL IFFY. DPROG/DT FOR THE ECMWF                
SHOWS THE A FASTER TREND FROM THE LAST RUN...ALSO THE FRONT IS MORE             
OF AN OPEN WAVE AS OPPOSED TO THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE 00Z RUN                
FROM YESTERDAY. THE GFS IF ANYTHING THE PAST FOUR RUNS HAS BEEN                 
CONSISTENT WITH ITS TIMING...BRINING THE FRONT TO MID LAKE SUPERIOR             
BY 6Z TUES AND THRU THE CWA SOMETIME AFTER 12Z. GOOD RUN TO RUN                 
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS IS HARD TO IGNORE. THINK THE FINAL SOLUTION            
CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. IN THE END THOUGH THINK A              
FASTER SOLUTION MAY BE REALIZED. SURROUNDING OFFICES NOTED A SIMILAR            
THINKING. SEE 12PLANET LOG.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING ENE THRU              
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS UNEVENTFULLY THIS                 
MORNING. SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING SOME SCT -SHRA UPSTREAM EARLIER THIS              
MORNING...BUT THOSE -SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED. A COUPLE OF -SHRA OR                 
SPRINKLES STILL CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT`S NOT               
WORTH A MENTION AT EITHER KCMX/KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR            
THIS ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20KT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUN             
MORNING. THE STRONGER WINDS TODAY (AT TIMES IN THE 15-20KT RANGE)               
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SE                
PART OF THE LAKE AS WINDS BECOME NW DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL                 
STRENGTHEN SUN AFTN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS                 
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY 15-25KT WINDS DEVELOP OVER            
THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUN EVENING AND PERSIST THRU MON              
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND 20KT FOR THE            
MOST PART...THERE SHOULD BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT...                    
ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER OBSERVING PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER             
OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE AS THEY COMMONLY ARE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.             
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE A LITTLE SOONER ON TUE THAN INDICATED            
IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WINDS               
WILL EXCEED 20KT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...PEARSON                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...ROLFSON                                                       
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ONE MINOR               
CHANGE ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THE NORTHEAST FA MOSTLY               
CLOUDY TODAY WHERE CLOUDS ARE MOVING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. WILL                   
THEREFORE LOWER CLOUD AMOUNTS A BIT IN THIS AREA TODAY (LOOKS                   
LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE A LOT OF SUN). STARTING A LITTLE                
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN                 
NORTH DAKOTA. WILL REALLY NOT SEE MUCH RETURN FLOW UNTIL LATE...                
SO WINDS WILL STAY RATHER LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE DAY (VERY WEAK                  
WARM ADVECTION). THEREFORE WILL DEPEND MOSTLY ON THE POWER OF THE               
SUN FOR HEATING TODAY. WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER                 
THAN FRIDAY...WHICH IS WHAT THE FORECAST HAD GOING.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER               
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MN MOVING EAST.                
GFS NAM AND CANADIAN ARE SIMILAR WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST.                      
COMPARING THE RADAR VAD WINDS TO THE MODELS THE GFS AND RUC HANDLED             
LOW LEVEL WINDS BELOW 850 HPA THE BEST COMPARED TO THE NAM. SO THE              
GFS WILL BE USED. POCKET OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND 800 HPA OVER             
NORTHERN MN WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO SHIFT EAST.                            
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG CAP EXPECTED AROUND 800 HPA ON SUN            
EVEN THOUGH CAPES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES                
INTO THE REGION MON. WILL NEED LIFT AROUND 800 TO 700 HPA TO                    
OVERCOME INHIBITION MON AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN ZONES.                         
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TEMPS TWEAKED. SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TUE. WILL ADD A              
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE.                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. THE            
CLOUDS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON              
BEFORE SHIFT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.                             
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GODON                                                                           
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
1018 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING MAINLY TO ADJUST                
CLOUDS/POPS. WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR                  
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EWD...WITH 12Z RAOB 500/300MB PLOTS SHOWING                  
NICE HEIGHT FALL/RISE COUPLET OVER THE MIDWEST. RUC/GFS/NAM ALL                 
INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE /AND IMPLIED SUBIDENCE/                 
SPREADING INTO AREA BY AFTERNOON. GOES PRECIP WATER SOUNDER ALSO                
SHOWING DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING AND              
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RUC SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A              
NARROW WINDOW OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST FROM 17Z-                   
21Z WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 200-300 J/KG. LOCAL 4KM WRF-ARW                     
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO BEAR THIS OUT...WITH WEAK SIMULATED ECHOES                
INDICATED IN THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THUS WILL HOLD ONTO ISOLATED RAIN              
CHANCES BASICALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO WATERTOWN TO               
JANESVILLE. OTHEWISE...EXPECT MAINLY JUST FLAT CU WEST AS                       
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPS ACTIVITY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOWLE                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
322 PM MDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TNGT AND SUN)                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS                
THIS AFTN THROUGH EVE...AND STRATUS/FOG ACROSS ERN CO AGAIN LATE                
TNGT-EARLY SUN MORNING.                                                         
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED A RELATIVELY FLAT NWLY FLOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...AND HARD            
TO DISCERN A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. RUC40 DOES            
HINT AT A H3-H2 PV POSITIVE LOBE MOVING THROUGH SRN CO...WHICH COULD            
HELP TRIGGER MOIST CONVECTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED              
MUCH OF THE LIFR-MVFR STRATUS/FOG ACROSS WRN CO HAS DISSIPATED BY               
LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. PLENTY OF                     
CONVECTIVE JUICE IN THE ATMOSPHERE GIVEN LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS            
ERN CO.  LAPS DATA HAS SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-3K                      
J/KG...BUT WITH CAPPING INVERSION STILL IN PLACE. LIFTED INDICES                
RUNNING AROUND -2C TO -4C. VERTICAL SHEAR NOT TOO BAD WITH 0-6KM                
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-40KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW            
JUXTAPOSED WITH MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW.  VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE             
IMAGERY ANIMATION SHOWED CU/TCU DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE SWRN CO              
MOUNTAINS...SO FAR. FIRST CELL WENT UP JUST EAST OF KRTN ALONG CO/NM            
BORDER.                                                                         
LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT...BIG CHALLENGES WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER             
THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. ALL THERMAL INGREDIENTS ARE IN-PLACE...BUT JUST             
WAITING FOR THE TRIGGER. RUC40 IS ALREADY A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH                
BREAKING OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN CO AND THIS MAY BE A RESULT OF            
A FAIRLY MOIST SFC-PBL LAYER. NAM12 WANTS TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION            
OVER THE SWRN CO MOUNTAINS AND SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO                             
MOUNTAINS/SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS LATER THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO THE              
ADJACENT VALLEYS/PLAINS THROUGH THE EVE. THERE IS A HINT OF A CELL              
OR TWO DEVELOPING OVER PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE...TOO. PLAN TO                  
MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS/WX THROUGH THIS EVE.  THE NEXT CHALLENGE              
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS/FOG ACROSS ERN CO AGAIN TNGT.                
GIVEN SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH              
DEVELOPS OVER ERN CO AND A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS              
EXTREME ERN CO AND WRN KS. THERE MIGHT BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR                     
RADIATIONAL STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP. THE DEEPER SFC-H8 MOISTURE                  
SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN KS WHERE ADVECTION STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.                
THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE OR IN THE               
LOW LEVEL JET STREAK FOR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CO                  
PLAINS...BUT I GUESS THERE IS STILL A VERY LOW POTENTIAL OUT AROUND             
KLHX/KLAA AND NEARBY.                                                           
SUN...MORE WEAK H3-H2 PV POSITIVE LOBES MIGRATE THROUGH THE CNTRL               
ROCKIES DURING PEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE              
PROGGED TO DRY OUT A LITTLE. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS/WX               
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO              
GROUND LIGHTNING DURING THE AFTN. METZE                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                 
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO             
INCREASE IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS PAC NW              
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE                     
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.                
MODELS KEEPING BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE REGION THOUGH DO                 
INDICATE SOME UVV TO WORK WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO KEEP                  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY              
WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DVD. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS             
THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT PROGGED TO MOVE AROUND THE KANSAS               
BORDER MONDAY WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE TO MOVE TO                
NEAR THE PALMER DVD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND STALLS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH             
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER MONDAY EVENING. LATEST NAM ALLOWS FOR SOME                
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE                  
PLAINS TO WORK WITH WEAK UVV FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MONDAY              
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT             
SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY. LATEST NAM A TAD FASTER              
WITH FRONT WHICH HAS FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY                   
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEREAS GFS A TAD SLOWER. AT ANY RATE...HAVE GONE             
WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION...KEEPING BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE            
EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOIST LOW             
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...COULD              
SEE STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD KEEP THE PLAINS TOO STABLE FOR ANY              
PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND...I TRIMMED POPS A TAD            
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING BEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS            
AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS.                                                  
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS INDICATING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW            
ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE            
DESERT SW BUILDS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODELS ALSO                      
INDICATING HARD TO TIME SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT                  
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....KEEP GENERALLY            
COOL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE             
KEPT TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AT OR                
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH              
GENERALLY ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  -MW                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT THE KALS...KCOS...AND KPUB                       
TERMINAL AREAS...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE                   
TAFS. ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND OR                    
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY THROUGH                   
18Z/26. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR-MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP              
IN THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS BETWEEN 06Z/26-17Z/26. METZE                          
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/23                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
250 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION                                                                     
MAJOR RAINS HAVE DEPARTED AND ARE ENTERING INTO NEW AIR MASS. UPR               
TROF STILL NOT QUITE THRU WITH SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER MOST OF             
AREA. RUC INDICATING VORT MAX STRETCHING FROM UGN TO ERN IA AND                 
WORKING SE THRU NRN IL THIS AFTN. POST-VORT SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON            
VIS SATL ENTERING NW IL. BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AFTN HEATING               
OCNLY POPPING BRIEF SMALL SHOWERS. HAVE TAKEN RAIN OUT FOR NOW BUT              
WILL PROBLY RE-INSERT AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR EARLY EVENING IN SOUTH            
AND SOUTHEAST. ENHANCED BREEZE FROM LAKE IS STEADILY RACING WEST                
THRU OHARE TO JOT AND DPA BY 400 PM. WILL NOT BE BOTHERING WITH RAIN            
CHANCES BEHIND THIS FEATURE.                                                    
RUC SHOWING SLIGHT TROFING IN UPR FLOW MOVING INTO NW IL AFTER DARK             
THIS EVENING AND PROBLY DIVING SE IN WRN SECTIONS OF FCST AREA. THIS            
SLIGHTLY REFLECTED IN OTHER MODELS BUT SHUD HAVE NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT              
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRYING IN MID LVLS.                  
RADIATIVE DECOUPLING IN LOWER LVL WILL WEAKEN WINDS TO NEAR CALM AND            
WITH SO MUCH SFC MSTR BEING TRAPPED...WILL LIKELY BE FOGGING UP. UPS            
FOG PRGM OUTPUTS AN INDEX OF 0.5 AND A -4 CROSSOVER...SUGGESTING                
AREAS LESS THAN 1/2 MI OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY             
NOW BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH AND HOW SOON FOG STARTS DROPPING THIS                 
EVENING TO ASCERTAIN A BETTER FEEL ON FOG INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.                  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BLDG OVER AREA SUNDAY AND UNDER COMPLETE                     
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.                 
RIDGING MOVING EAST ACRS THE LAKES WILL PERMIT SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN             
AND ADVECT CI/AC UP MS VLY INTO NRN IL. MAY HAVE MORE AREAS OF FOG              
SUN NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT WILL NOT PUT              
IN FCST FOR NOW. APPEARS NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE TUES              
NGT AND WED. MODELS ATTEMPTING TO SWING WEAK UPR TROF THRU MON NGT              
BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO INSERT RAIN CHANCES AT THAT POINT.                
AFTER WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE WEEK DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS             
AND SLIGHTLY SUBNORMAL LOWS.                                                    
RLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
115 PM CDT                                                                      
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN                 
ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU HAS                    
DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND IS ENHANCED WEST OF THE LAKE                    
MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS A BIT STRONGER.               
FORECAST/ACARS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE 100-200 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE             
ALONG FOR SOME VERTICAL EXTENT WITH THE CU FIELD. MAIN UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGH AXIS ALSO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS                
LIKELY AIDING IN CU COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD                
SHOWERS DEVELOP GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE               
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TERMINALS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS              
SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING IN SYNOPTIC SCALE               
SUBSIDENCE. SUBSIDENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING TOWARD EVENING SHOULD                
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10              
KNOTS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD VEER NORTHEAST LATE THIS                         
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND LESSEN IN SPEEDS WITH DECOUPLING               
THIS EVENING...AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.               
MAIN CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION. WITH            
RELATIVELY SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTHS THIS AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS            
ARE STILL UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COMBINATION OF CLEARING                   
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WET SOILS...AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO             
CARRY IFR VSBYS AT RFD/DPA LATE TONIGHT AND MVFR VSBYS ACROSS                   
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z                  
SUNDAY WITH CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.              
BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES...BASES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE               
FAIRLY LOW INITIALLY LOW...IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE. HOWEVER BY                
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING CU TO BECOME HIGHER BASED WITH A DEEPER MIXED             
LAYER TOMORROW.                                                                 
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
235 PM CDT                                                                      
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.             
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE              
HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST. NEXT PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL RACE ACROSS              
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW              
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORT WAVE MONDAY WITH                
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND SHIFT WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
IN TERMS OF THE NEARSHORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN             
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WINDS              
AND WAVES ARE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING                      
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
125 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007                                                      
AVIATION (FOR 18Z TAFS)...                                                      
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THIS                 
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS              
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT               
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS              
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. --JA                                         
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
AT 15Z A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM ST LOUIS NORTHEAST                 
INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURING ALONG              
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND                  
NORTHERN INDIANA. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE WHICH                  
STRETCHED FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWEST TO BOWLING GREEN. WE EXPECT THIS            
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND                
THIS MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL             
KENTUCKY. WITH THIS IN MIND WE WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS              
ALL THE FORECAST AREA. IT STILL MAY BE A FEW HOURS BEFORE                       
STORMS DEVELOP AS THE LATEST BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A               
CAP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  WE WILL ALSO ADJUST TEMPERATURES UP                  
SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE LACK OF THICK CLOUD                   
COVER.  FORECAST OUT BY 11:15AM.  --JA                                          
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING POPS FROM SOUTHEASTERN                 
COUNTIES. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN INDIANA. DEPENDING ON EXTENT AND TIMING OF THESE                       
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE KEPT DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN                     
COUNTIES...AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITHIN THE GRIDS...HOLDING TEMPS             
IN DUBOIS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES DOWN IN THE MID 80S.                            
JSD                                                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
MAIN CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS FOR THE FEW HOURS AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF               
THUNDER ALONG/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                     
THE RUC 40 CAPTURED THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING PRECIP                 
ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. IT ACCURATELY                   
FORECAST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLED MOISTURE. THIS CONVECTION             
DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING AIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM                   
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP             
IS QUITE WIDESPREAD CURRENTLY ACROSS A FEW OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN                  
COUNTIES. THE RUC HAS THIS PRECIP GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAWN.            
FOR NOW...FEEL THAT CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL ERODE NEAR OR SHORTLY              
AFTER SUNRISE.                                                                  
ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT SHOWS TWO                    
MAXIMA...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND THE OTHER IN INDIANA. A               
RELATIVE MINIMUM STRETCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE               
CHANCES OF MORNING PRECIP MOVING NORTHEAST OF A BOWLING GREEN TO                
LEXINGTON LINE IS VERY SMALL.                                                   
CURRENTLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR DETROIT WITH A DIFFUSE COLD                 
FRONT LYING FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS              
WILL MOVE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES            
BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND                  
SLIGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS            
INDIANA BY EARLIER AFTERNOON...BUT LESSENS THE COVERAGE AS IT MOVES             
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE             
MODELS MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT TOWARDS 00Z...THE LACK OF ANY               
UPPER FORCING OR SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE             
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY                  
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL              
PART OF THE STATE BY LATE EVENING.                                              
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT DO EXPECT              
MID 90S AGAIN.                                                                  
JSD                                                                             
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
AFTER THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY                       
EVENING...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH             
WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE A DRY                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
WE MAY STILL SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OVER THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY WITH            
THE UPPER TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND MODELS SUGGESTING AN INVERTED                 
SURFACE TROF FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BLUE GRASS. MOISTURE IS MINIMAL              
HOWEVER AND ANY FORCING WILL BE WEAK.                                           
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...ALBEIT NOT A LARGE CHANCE...WILL COME AS A            
VERY WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA AND                    
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE A                 
ROBUST WEATHER MAKER AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH            
IT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MID/LATE WEEK.              
NO MORE 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK             
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.                    
13                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky