FXUS04 KWBC 090659
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
258 AM EDT FRI JUL 09 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 09/1200 UTC THRU JUL 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 


...DAY 1...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

SOMEWHAT OF A QPF NIGHTMARE HERE.   A STG LVL SLY FLOW IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TO SUPPORT CNVCTV DVLPMNT HERE. 
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL QPFS ARE NOT MUCH HELP IN THIS
REGARD AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL INITIALLY FIRE THE ACTVTY
WHICH WILL BE MESOSCALE DRIVEN AFTER THAT PT IN TIME.  
TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST TO BRING THE PCPN IS ALSO
DIFFICULT GIVEN UNKNOWN INTERACTION OF MESOSCALE FORCING AND
THE CAP.  CURRENT SCENARIO IS FOR THE ACTVTY NOW OVR THE
CNTRL PLAINS TO DVLP SEWD/SWD WITH TIME AS IT ADVANCES INTO
THE MOIST LLVL SLY FLOW.   ADNL CNVCTV DVLPMNT IS AGAIN
LIKELY BY THIS EVNG OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SHOULD AGAIN
TAKE A SWD PATH.   HOW LONG THESE AREAS OF CNVCTN WILL BE
MAINTAINED...WHETHER OR NOT THEY GO THRU OSCILLATIONS...AND
WHETHER THEIR ASOCTD MESOSCALE FORCING INFLUENCES LATER
ACTVTY ARE ALL UNKNOWNS.

...MIDWEST...

AN E/W BNDRY WILL BE LYING ACROSS THIS AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR STG LLVL MSTR CNVGNC AS SLY FLOW IMPINGES ON THE
FEATURE.   BOTH MODELS INDC A WV MOVG ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF
THE WLYS WILL BE AVBL TO FIRE THE ACTVTY WHICH WILL THEN BE
AIDED BY FVBL RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.   THE GFS
APPEARS TO HAVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS CONCERNING THIS DVLPMNT AND
FOR THIS REASON LEANED STGLY TOWARDS THE ETAS MASS FIELD
FCSTS FOR PLACEMENT DETAILS.

...CNTRL HI PLAINS...

LIKE THE ETAS IDEA OF A PIECE OF SHRTWV ENERGY WORKING AROUND
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SRN STATES UPPER HI CELL TO TRIGGER
CNVCTN IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATER IN THE FCST PD. 
HOWEVER...PREFER TO BRING THE ACTVTY A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY
EWD GIVEN MESOSCALE CONSIDERATIONS.  

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...

A UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP FIRE SHWRS ACROSS THE REGION.

...TN VLY...

AN OLD FRONTAL BAND...HI PWS...FVBL DIV ALOFT NEAR THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED ALONG AN 
AXIS OF MID LVL CYCLONIC SHEAR WILL HELP TO FIRE SHWRS THIS
AREA THIS AFTN AND EVNG.

...SWRN U.S./NAME AREA...

OVR THE SOUTHWEST...SHRTWV ENERGY LIFTING NWD ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SRN STATES UPPER HI CELL WILL TAP RATHER
MEAGER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHWRS OVR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
SW.

LCLY HVY RAINS AREA AGAIN EXPECTED OVR THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG HOURS.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



                                   
 
24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 224065 229067 233070 240078 247085 251087 258087 267090 
      276093 285098 293104 300111 306118 316142 319148 324153 
      330156 331156 334151 332144 330139 329135 329130 330125 
      331119 335119 339123 344128 347129 349127 355126 360124 
      364126 368125 370122 368119 366116 359116 355112 349103 
      346094 344086 341081 335078 332077 330079 327083 327088 
      324087 318084 316079 318073 321068 328068 332068 335065 
      338061 344058 347058 352061 361061 363062 364064 368070 
      369072 370076 375086 375098 378101 383099 389099 394098 
      393118 399121 404127 405133 399132 393130 389135 389140 
      392142 399143 400147 397150 393153 388157 386163 386168 
      387171 389175 392176 396176 401172 409160 411158 415158 
      420154 431127 434125 438124 443123 449123 452124 455122 
      460119 462113 461106 451096 443095 435093 431091 427084 
      424077 424069 426064 433061 442052 444050 449049 457047 
      462047 467048 476047 481044 486038 489032 491026 496018 
      500017 505012 513002 512985 510980 510974 512969 512963 
      510953 506944 501940 495937 488937 481940 475942 471944 
      467948 462953 452964 447969 443971 441963 442957 444950 
      447945 451939 456934 467926 473921 477918 485913 489909 
      491906 491897 490888 485885 474886 462888 454892 445893 
      438894 435891 434888 428872 420856 414845 411839 407833 
      398819 389810 386808 382808 379815 375827 373840 372847 
      370852 365856 360858 353861 348859 344856 342849 340842 
      339834 339826 343814 351789 355778 356764 356758 356751 
      355745 351744 344751 336762 331773 322795 320799 316803 
      309806 303808 299808 295807 287804 279799 271797 260794 
      253796 247800 243805 241811 242820 244823 247824 250821 
      255822 265828 286834 290838 292844 294857 295864 296872 
      295880 289900 288914 287924 285935 283940 279947 272958 
      266969 266975 271978 276979 279980 283980 296981 311979 
      315978 318979 320982 323990 326992 326995 331019 338024 
      335028 331031 324035 317038 304043 296050 286057 277059 
      272057 269053 267050 263047 258044 250042 244040 239038 
      234033 230028 
 0.01 498674 497668 496663 492655 487652 482647 478638 474634 
      469629 464626 454628 449626 442625 440627 439633 438640 
      440649 443663 444672 441678 435690 432697 429704 426716 
      424723 423731 425736 428737 442733 451738 456738 463735 
      476727 482719 485713 497686 498674 
 0.01 537216 538211 537207 535201 532187 530174 528171 525169 
      519170 514166 511162 505160 499163 497167 496172 497177 
      503186 505191 511194 516201 523211 528221 531222 533220 
      537216 
 0.01 518268 519259 518256 515253 510245 503234 498224 494212 
      492211 486210 482213 480217 481222 486226 489229 493235 
      498245 501247 503252 508264 510268 512269 515270 518268 
 0.01 505281 505277 505276 504272 504267 503267 501262 499261 
      496259 494255 492257 491261 492265 492267 494270 497273 
      499278 500279 501281 504282 505281 
 0.01 408129 408128 406125 405124 403125 405128 405129 408130 
      408129 
 0.01 404095 405091 406087 404083 401086 400087 399091 398093 
      397094 398098 401097 404095 404095 
 0.01 388912 388907 387904 382899 378898 375900 369905 359913 
      351916 348919 346921 343927 341935 336949 335952 336954 
      345952 350950 355945 360939 365935 371932 374928 378926 
      383922 387917 388912 
 0.01 386201 386200 385197 384196 381193 380192 379191 376189 
      374187 371190 373193 374195 375195 378197 380200 381200 
      383201 386202 386201 
 0.01 375061 373057 372057 369057 367058 366058 365061 367062 
      367061 369060 371061 372061 375061 375061 
 0.01 368011 365010 362011 359012 362013 365014 368012 368011 
 0.01 361093 362089 361086 358085 355086 354089 354093 355096 
      358096 361094 361093 
 0.01 361068 362065 361064 359065 361068 361068 
 0.25 226057 233058 242060 256069 258075 260077 264080 267081 
      276082 285087 292090 302094 307094 310092 308088 306085 
      296072 292068 289067 277066 270063 264058 256055 252054 
      248051 242047 234044 228040 
 0.25 488673 487667 485664 480659 471653 465653 460656 456661 
      455668 454683 453690 450698 445711 446717 451717 463715 
      469713 475711 478706 482698 486692 487689 487683 488673 
 0.25 428921 428910 427901 425893 422886 417871 410857 402846 
      395841 391843 389847 389851 389858 390866 391881 392886 
      395893 398902 398911 398921 397929 392933 386936 378941 
      357956 349965 344972 342978 340987 340991 341000 344004 
      349003 355996 360991 364989 369986 374987 377988 379991 
      379000 379008 381015 383020 387027 389032 391042 394048 
      398051 404053 410051 415048 419043 424038 427037 429033 
      430026 430021 430016 427012 422010 412003 401998 398997 
      396995 395990 395986 400976 407965 411960 415956 420952 
      422948 425942 427935 428930 428921 
 0.25 341790 340788 337789 336792 335793 333796 333797 331799 
      331802 330805 330806 331809 331808 333804 335801 336799 
      337797 339795 339794 341791 341790 
 0.25 352886 345881 343879 339873 335863 334860 330858 328859 
      326863 323874 321884 319893 317896 317900 318903 320907 
      324905 328901 330899 335896 341894 349891 352886 
 0.25 317947 313941 311935 310930 307926 304929 303933 300939 
      297944 294950 291955 291958 295959 301959 305961 309961 
      314956 316950 317947 
 0.50 482673 476668 471667 463672 461676 461681 460688 456697 
      456701 459704 462705 466704 472703 476697 480688 482678 
      482673 
 0.50 421895 418884 413873 411867 408864 405861 402860 400863 
      399875 399886 401901 406915 410926 414936 416940 418939 
      421935 424922 423915 422907 421895 
 0.50 397967 396958 393953 390948 387946 384946 373951 363957 
      359960 355964 351968 347975 345986 346993 349995 352992 
      355989 360985 364983 371982 376982 383984 386985 389979 
      396970 397967 
 0.50 269072 269071 269069 266066 266065 264064 261066 260069 
      260072 261073 264075 266074 269072 269072 
 1.00 417908 417904 416901 415898 415897 412894 411892 410894 
      409899 409903 410906 411910 413913 415914 416912 417909 
      417908 
 1.00 410883 409879 408876 408879 409883 410886 410883 
 1.00 385973 385965 381962 377961 372963 366965 361966 358967 
      354971 354974 356977 360977 365976 370975 376975 382976 
      385973  
 
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