AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1005 AM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT...ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT IS NOT THAT WELL-DEFINED IN THE               
SFC T/TD/WIND FIELDS...I THINK IT'S SAFE TO ASSUME THAT IT LIES NEAR            
THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD SHIELD.              
THIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG A KPGD-KOKE-KSUA LINE...CORRESPONDING TO WHERE            
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MINIMAL TO NIL AND WHERE HPC ANALYZED IT AT 12Z.           
12Z RAOBS FROM TBW/XMR SHOW HIGHEST PWATS (~1.75") LIE WITHIN THE               
SATURATED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE TO              
THE SOUTH EYW/MFL ARE ABOUT HALF AN INCH DRIER...MAINLY FROM THE MID            
LEVELS ON UP. MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWS UP ON THE RAOBS             
AND PROFILER DATA AS WELL AS THE RUC ANLYS FIELDS. ONLY ISOLD-SCT               
CELLULAR CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON THE KAMX 88D.               
FCST...BEST MOISTURE/FORCED ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM                
FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AS THE GOMEX LOW EDGES EWD              
TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE BY THE MID SHIFT TO TAPER                
POPS A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL WORK OUT NICELY...GIVEN                
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NO ZFP CHGS SEEMS TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILD RIDE CONTINUES ON THE ATLC WITH SUSTAINED WINDS                  
25-30KT GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40KT. GALE FORCE GUSTS NOTED EARLIER                 
OVERNIGHT AS FAR SOUTH AS SPGF1...WHICH IS STILL BLOWING SUSTAINED              
CLOSE TO 25KT. CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE...ONLY CHG WILL BE TO EXTEND             
THE GLW ACROSS THE SRN LEG INTO THE AFTN...AS THERE WILL PROBABLY               
BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH THRU MID AFTN.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO               
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM               
SOUTH TO NORTH BY THIS EVENING.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
  HIGH SURF ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER INLET.                               
  GALE WARNING FLAGLER BEACH-COCOA BEACH UNTIL 7PM.                             
  GALE WARNING COCOA BEACH-JUPITER INLET UNTIL 4PM.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CRISTALDI                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
820 PM CST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW               
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH             
FROM THIS LOW TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND A TROF EXTENDED NORTHWEST               
FROM THE LOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALOFT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW               
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SNOW/FLURRIES WILL RAPIDLY COME             
TO AN END AS THE SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEMS DEPART...LEAVING CLOUDS...               
LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIFTING SNOW AS THE MAIN                
OVERNIGHT CONCERNS.                                                             
DUE TO DIMINISHING SNOWS...WILL EXPIRE/CANCEL REMAINING ADVISORIES              
BY 9 PM.                                                                        
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN               
HIGHER WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...RESULTING IN SOME BLOWING               
AND DRIFTING OF THE DAY/S SNOW. THE WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY                   
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSIDENCE DIMINISHES...BUT                
WILL ADD A MENTION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING TO GRIDS/ZONES UNTIL THEN.               
THE WINDS WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT MORE THAN WOULD BE                
EXPECTED WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW                 
HOURS FOR TEMPERATURES TO CRASH LATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS SLACKEN               
AND THE REMAINING CLOUDS LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LOW DEPART.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE WITH EXISTING HEADLINES THIS EVENING AND             
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESP ACRS THE EAST...WITH LONGER TERM CONCERNS             
REVOLVING AROUND TROF FCST TO DROP SEWD INTO THE LAKES OVER THE                 
WEEKEND. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA BECOMING MORE             
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH SECONDARY SPEED MAX OF 140 KTS NOTED ON                  
PROFILERS ACR SRN MISSOURI. ILX RADAR INDICATING SEVERAL MESOSCALE              
SNOW BANDS PUSHING NORTH ACRS THE FCST AREA. ONE SUCH BAND NOW                  
PUSHING NE OF LINCOLN THRU BLOOMINGTON EAST THROUGH THE INTERSTATE              
57 CORRIDOR...WITH A SECONDARY BAND LOCATED JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD.           
WL KEEP HEADLINES GOING INTO THIS EVENING WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT                 
SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MAINLY OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF                    
INTERSTATE 55. NOT TOO MUCH TO ARGUE ABOUT MODEL-WISE...AT LEAST IN             
THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH WEEKEND SHORTWAVE             
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES.                                                  
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTING BEST 850-500 MB FORCING TO SHIFT INTO               
EXTREME EASTERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z. ETA MODEL INDICATING SOME WEAK PVU             
AND IMPRESSIVE QG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE TIME FRAME FROM 18Z-00Z FROM             
JUST EAST OF SPI THRU MTO AND SALEM WHERE SEVERAL MESOSCALE BANDS               
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. SNOWFALL REPORTS TO OUR WEST HAVE INDICATED              
AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF              
WE SEE A 4 INCH REPORT ACRS OUR EAST BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE              
FORCING SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE THIS EVENING HOWEVER                   
LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR IN 850 AND 500 MB THERMAL TROF THRU             
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. BIG PROBLEM WILL BE WITH DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP             
AND CLOUD SHIELD WHICH MODELS SUGGEST MAY SNEAK TO OUR NORTH AND                
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAKING A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOW              
TEMPS. CURRENT FCST HAS GONE WELL BELOW GUID AND WL MAKE ONLY MINOR             
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                              
QUIET WX RETURNS TO CNTRL IL FOR FRIDAY AND AT LEAST THE START OF               
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACRS THE SRN MIDWEST. 850 MB                
THERMAL TROF WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES                   
WARMING QUITE A BIT...AT LEAST ALOFT. WILL PROBABLY GO A CATEGORY               
OR TWO BELOW GUID ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE SUN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.              
SAME CAN BE SAID FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW              
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW GUID. TROF FCST TO DEEPEN IN AGAIN ACRS THE                 
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SVL SPOKES OF VORTICITY TRACKING             
ACRS THE FCST AREA. ABOUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES AND              
THAT IS ABOUT IT. SOME COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AT 850 MB BUT WE HAVE            
SEEN IT QUITE A BIT COLDER ACRS THE AREA IN THE PAST SVL DAYS. BUT              
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...STILL THINKING GUID IS TOO OPTIMISTIC SO              
WL CUT IT BACK A SEVERAL DEGREES.                                               
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                          
WL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THE LONGER TERM WITH THE            
GREAT LAKES TROF FCST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. STILL                
FEEL MEX GUID A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING NEXT WEEK AS                
FLOW FLATTENS OUT SOME ACRS THE MIDWEST. THAT WILL BE TEMPORARY AS              
ADDL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FCST TO TRACK SE OUT OF SW CANADA BY NEXT              
WED AND POSSIBLY INFLUENCE A SRN STREAM WAVE. THAT MAY BRING PRECIP             
BACK INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF               
THAT EVENT TOO MUCH IN DOUBT TO PUT IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAK/SMITH                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
215 PM CST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE WITH EXISTING HEADLINES THIS EVENING AND             
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESP ACRS THE EAST...WITH LONGER TERM CONCERNS             
REVOLVING AROUND TROF FCST TO DROP SEWD INTO THE LAKES OVER THE                 
WEEKEND. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA BECOMING MORE             
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH SECONDARY SPEED MAX OF 140 KTS NOTED ON                  
PROFILERS ACR SRN MISSOURI. ILX RADAR INDICATING SEVERAL MESOSCALE              
SNOW BANDS PUSHING NORTH ACRS THE FCST AREA. ONE SUCH BAND NOW                  
PUSHING NE OF LINCOLN THRU BLOOMINGTON EAST THROUGH THE INTERSTATE              
57 CORRIDOR...WITH A SECONDARY BAND LOCATED JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD.           
WL KEEP HEADLINES GOING INTO THIS EVENING WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT                 
SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MAINLY OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF                    
INTERSTATE 55. NOT TOO MUCH TO ARGUE ABOUT MODEL-WISE...AT LEAST IN             
THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH WEEKEND SHORTWAVE             
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES.                                                  
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTING BEST 850-500 MB FORCING TO SHIFT INTO               
EXTREME EASTERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z. ETA MODEL INDICATING SOME WEAK PVU             
AND IMPRESSIVE QG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE TIME FRAME FROM 18Z-00Z FROM             
JUST EAST OF SPI THRU MTO AND SALEM WHERE SEVERAL MESOSCALE BANDS               
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. SNOWFALL REPORTS TO OUR WEST HAVE INDICATED              
AROUND 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF              
WE SEE A 4 INCH REPORT ACRS OUR EAST BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE              
FORCING SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE THIS EVENING HOWEVER                   
LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR IN 850 AND 500 MB THERMAL TROF THRU             
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. BIG PROBLEM WILL BE WITH DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP             
AND CLOUD SHIELD WHICH MODELS SUGGEST MAY SNEAK TO OUR NORTH AND                
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAKING A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOW              
TEMPS. CURRENT FCST HAS GONE WELL BELOW GUID AND WL MAKE ONLY MINOR             
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                              
QUIET WX RETURNS TO CNTRL IL FOR FRIDAY AND AT LEAST THE START OF               
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACRS THE SRN MIDWEST. 850 MB                
THERMAL TROF WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES                   
WARMING QUITE A BIT...AT LEAST ALOFT. WILL PROBABLY GO A CATEGORY               
OR TWO BELOW GUID ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE SUN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.              
SAME CAN BE SAID FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW              
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW GUID. TROF FCST TO DEEPEN IN AGAIN ACRS THE                 
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SVL SPOKES OF VORTICITY TRACKING             
ACRS THE FCST AREA. ABOUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES AND              
THAT IS ABOUT IT. SOME COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AT 850 MB BUT WE HAVE            
SEEN IT QUITE A BIT COLDER ACRS THE AREA IN THE PAST SVL DAYS. BUT              
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...STILL THINKING GUID IS TOO OPTIMISTIC SO              
WL CUT IT BACK A SEVERAL DEGREES.                                               
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                          
WL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THE LONGER TERM WITH THE            
GREAT LAKES TROF FCST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. STILL                
FEEL MEX GUID A BIT TOO AGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING NEXT WEEK AS FLOW            
FLATTENS OUT SOME ACRS THE MIDWEST. THAT WILL BE TEMPORARY AS ADDL              
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FCST TO TRACK SE OUT OF SW CANADA BY NEXT WED               
AND POSSIBLY INFLUENCE A SRN STREAM WAVE. THAT MAY BRING PRECIP BACK            
INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF THAT               
EVENT TOO MUCH IN DOUBT TO PUT IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.                           
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM CST TODAY FOR KNOX...STARK...              
MARSHALL...FULTON...PEORIA...WOODFORD...TAZEWELL...MASON...MENARD               
SCHUYLER...CASS...SCOTT...MORGAN...SANGAMON AND LOGAN COUNTIES.                 
SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CST TODAY FOR CHRISTIAN...           
SHELBY...MACON...MOULTRIE...COLES...CLARK...CUMBERLAND...                       
EFFINGHAM...JASPER...CRAWFORD...CLAY...RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE                    
COUNTIES.                                                                       
SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO MIDNIGHT CST TODAY FOR                    
MCLEAN...DEWITT...PIATT...CHAMPAIGN...VERMILION...DOUGLAS AND                   
EDGAR COUNTIES.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
915 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPGRADE REMAINDER OF CWA TO HEAVY SNOW WARNING WITH 5-8                         
INCHES...MAYBE SPOT 9 INCHES IN SE CWA AS NNE-SSW MESOBANDING                   
INDICATED KIND 88-D. 3H JETLET SAMPLED AT KILN/160 KT. FEATURE                  
UNDERESTIMATED BY NAM12 AND RUC BY AROUND 30KTS. DEEP LAYER ASCENT              
ENHANCED IN REGION WHERE FAVORABLE 2-3 G/KG ON I285 SURFACE THROUGH             
FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 30-35 DBZ WITH BANDS LIFTING INTO SE FA               
WILL ADD TO ALREADY GENERAL 4-6 INCHES. 7H LOW NOW INTO NORTH                   
CENTRAL IL NEAR KPNT HAVE EXTENDED CAT SNOW POPS A FEW MORE HOURS               
WITH RAPID TAPER BY DAYBREAK.                                                   
UPDATE... (810 PM)                                                              
NORTHERN THIRD UPGRADED TO HEAVY SNOW WARNING. AMOUNTS AT LEAST IN              
NORTHWEST PART OF CWA IN 3-5 INCH RANGE ALREADY AND SNWFL RATES OF              
1.0-2.0 INCHES PER HOUR TO CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. BAND PIVOT POINT IN            
EXTREME NW INDIANA ATTM HIEGHTENING AMOUNTS THERE. TROWAL/I285 ISENT            
LIFT WITH 2-3G/KG TAP GENERATING MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS DESPITE                
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THOUGH BEGINNING TO DEEPEN MORE ACROSS                  
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH GREATER THAN 4MB/3HR FALLS INTO SOUTHERN CWA.              
DEFORMATION ZONE/7H TRACK SHOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS THE HIGHEST                
TOTALS AND HAVE UPPED TOTALS TO 6-9 WITH 4-7 IN REMAINDER OF                    
ADVISORY AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...                                                           
LATEST KIWX RADAR...AND RECENT OBSERVER REPORTS CONFIRM...LEADING               
EDGE OF SNOW NOW MOVING INTO SW CWA. MAIN FCST PROBLEM WAS IF ANY               
UPGRADE TO ADVISORY NEEDED. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW                  
MOVING ALONG IA/MO BORDER WITH PROFILER DATA INDICATING 130KT UPPER             
JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN MO. MODELS IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS            
COME IN TO PLACE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...MAIN LIMITING FACTOR               
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTING DURATION OF             
SNOW EVENT. SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING CWA ASSOCIATED WITH                 
850MB WAA. BY 00Z...700MB LOW EXPECTING TO BE ENTERING WEST CENTRAL             
ILLINOIS PLACING OUR AREA IN FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE FOR ANOTHER             
ROUND OF SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BOTH GFS             
AND NAM INDICATING AREAS OF K INDEX AROUND 15 THIS EVENING SO BRIEF             
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. CROSS SECTIONS OVER NORTHERN CWA                
ALSO INDICATING GOOD PLACEMENT OF OMEGA IN RELATION TO FAVORABLE                
TEMP RANGE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. HOWEVER...OVERALL PATTERN TO              
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ALREADY DROPPING DOWN            
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS SO RESULT SHOULD BE A STRONG BUT SHORT LIVED               
SNOW EVENT...SO CURRENT FCST OF GENERALLY 4-7 NORTH 3-6 INCHES                  
SOUTHEAST SEEMS REASONABLE SO WILL OPT TO CONTINUE ADVISORY AND HOLD            
OFF ON UPGRADE TO WARNING. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK RIGHT OVER               
THE CWA BY 06Z...THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT BEST DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH            
AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS            
SYSTEM EXITS WITH 925MB LOW OVER SE LAKE MICHIGAN AT 06Z. QUICK                 
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT AS DECENT NORTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS WITH               
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 4KFT AND MODEST DELTA T AROUND 15. SHOULD              
BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS FLOW BECOMES WEST/SOUTHWEST BY 18Z...SO               
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IN THE LAKE               
EFFECT AREA.                                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE              
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON THE LARGE SCALE...SEVERAL              
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR UPSTREAM...RIDING OVER            
TOP OF WESTERN RIDGE. FIRST SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT LONG TERM PERIODS              
IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND WYOMING. 12Z MODELS             
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING THIS WAVE INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION            
BY SATURDAY. DESPITE VIGOROUS LOOK IN THE 500MB HEIGHT AND VORT                 
FIELDS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS LACKING AND                   
CURRENT TRACK WOULD PLACE IT TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON               
OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT AS IT              
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WAVE IS                  
CURRENTLY TOPPING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FIRST               
WAVE...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR AND HELPING CARVE OUT               
DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NUMEROUS WEAKER SHORT WAVES WILL THEN                
MOVE THROUGH THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE             
FOR OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. UNCERTAINTY THEN LIES IN THE DAY 6                 
THROUGH 8 TIME FRAME AS MODELS HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING WESTERN RIDGE            
AND CUTOFF LOW THAT UNDERCUTS IT AND THE PHASING OF ANOTHER SHORT               
WAVE COMING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. MODELS TEND TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE              
WITH NORTHERN STREAM IN SUCH CASES...AS THEY WERE LAST WEEK WITH                
TODAYS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. TEND TO FAVOR SOMETHING CLOSER TO 12Z GFS             
WHICH DIGS SHORT WAVE ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOW LIFTING OUT OF              
SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A STRONGER AND SLOWER                           
SOLUTION. HAVE OPTED FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE DAY 7 TIME FRAME               
BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH OVERALL PATTERN BY THIS TIME.                         
IN THE DETAILS...HAVE KEPT SATURDAY DRY WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE            
DUE TO ITS POSITION WELL SOUTH OF US AND LACKING MOISTURE. LIGHT                
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY ARCTIC FRONT SAT NIGHT SUNDAY            
AS 100+ 300 MB JET DIVES SOUTHEAST AND PUTS THE AREA IN LEFT FRONT              
REGION. POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND                
DELTA T VALUES IN UPPER TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH SOME ACCUMS IN FAVORED            
LAKE EFFECT AREAS AND HIGH CHANCE POPS. THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND            
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY            
NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLE RIDGING MOVES IN TUE. KEPT TUE AND WED DRY FOR            
NOW AS RIDING TRIES TO HOLD AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE. ADDED               
POPS TO DAY 7 FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS UPSTREAM WAVE MOVING IN.              
LOWERED TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO TUE WITH             
LARGE SCALE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER AREA. ANY CLEARING DURING NIGHTIME            
HOURS WILL LEAD TO MORE SINGLE DIGIT OR COLDER LOWS GIVEN EXPECTED              
SNOW COVER. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN RIGHT NOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE            
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ANY CLEARING AND DECOUPLING. BEST CHANCE MAY BE            
FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES WHEN MODELS CLEAR OUT RH MOST LEVELS                 
AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IMPENDING WINTER STORM MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. NEXT                 
SEVERAL HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY AS INITIAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GOES                
INTO SATURATION OF DRY AIR MASS. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN             
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN SNOW                  
RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL            
QUICKLY DETERIORATE INTO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MODERATE TO            
HEAVY SNOW OVERSPREADS THE TAF SITES. RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT OF               
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.            
HOWEVER...BRIEF WINDOW OF NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL RESULT IN             
CONTINUATION OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS KSBN THROUGH 15Z.                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ017-INZ018.                
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR INZ003-            
     INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007-INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-INZ014-                   
     INZ016.                                                                    
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ013-INZ015-                
     INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-                   
     INZ033-INZ034.                                                             
MI...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-                
     MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.                                                      
OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ004-OHZ005-                
     OHZ015-OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.                                               
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ001-OHZ002.                
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM....14                                                                 
AVIATION...14                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
142 PM CST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
FOR THIS FORECAST...THE MAIN DECISION POINTS ARE TEMPERATURES.                  
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THROUGH 36            
HOURS...WITH CIRRUS SLIGHTLY ON THE INCREASE FROM 36-48 HOURS.                  
EXPECT THE WINDS WILL STAY UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN THE 7-            
12 KT RANGE.  THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A PURE                   
DIURNAL RATES.  DO NOT THINK THE SNOW COVER IS MUCH OF A FACTOR...              
EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE COLD AIR HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE 1-           
2 INCH BLANKET TODAY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MELTING GOING ON            
ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA TODAY...ESPECIALLY NOTABLE IN              
THE RIVER VALLEYS.                                                              
AS FOR TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL STICK PRETTY MUCH WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS            
SHIFT HAD...JUST A TAD COLDER IN THE NORTHEAST.  BASED ON WARMING               
OF THE WINTER SUN TODAY...BUMPED MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY A DEGREE OR TWO           
ACROSS THE BOARD.  IT COULD GET NEAR 40 IN THE EHA AND LBL AREAS...             
BUT FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE HAVE NOT WENT THAT HIGH.  WEST TO NORTHWEST            
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO MODERATE TO               
THE TEENS.  EVEN THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN ON SATURDAY...                 
STILL EXPECT MID 40S SOUTHWEST AND LOWER 40S NORTH.                             
MODELS INITIALIZE VERY WELL WITH EACH OTHER THIS MORNING AT 12Z.                
THE NGM AND GFS WERE NOT COLD ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE...AS GCK WAS -10            
AND TRB -14 AND MODELS STARTED THEM BOTH OFF AROUND -2.  LIKE THE               
COLDER ETA AND RUC.                                                             
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH TIMING OF S/W TROFS                
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW NEXT WEEK. ANY CASE STILL LOOKS LIKE             
A FAIRLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND AS FOR TEMPS IT LOOKS LIKE THEY                
WILL WARM SOME AHEAD OF EACH WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN. NO REAL            
COLD PUSH EVIDENT YET. BASED ON TIMING ISSUES HAVE OPTED NOT TO GET             
TOO DETAILED WITH THE WARMUP AND COOL DOWN WITH EACH OF THESE WEAK              
WAVES BUT THE EXCEPTION IS LATE WEEK WHERE ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT             
AGREEMENT WITH THIS 5H TROF.                                                    
WITH ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOMETHING CROSSING THE PLAINS               
MID WEEK AM UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES CURRENTLY IN             
THE GRIDS FOR WED. SIMILARLY BASED ON THE DISCREPANCIES CONFIDENCE              
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC   5  36  17  43 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK   4  37  16  44 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA   7  38  18  46 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL   5  38  17  46 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS   5  31  18  41 /   0   0   0   0                                           
P28   6  37  19  44 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN12/18                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
945 AM CST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THIS AFTERNOON...                                       
WILL BE REALIGNING THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER                  
ADVISORIES TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.              
WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE WABASH RIVER INTO SOUTHEAST            
ILLINOIS...WHILE WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF KY WILL            
BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY.                                                   
12Z PROFILER AND RUC DATA INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY             
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT WARM ADVECTION.                 
PRECIP TYPE IS MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND SE OF PAH TO              
EVV LINE. EVEN FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE REPORTED A MIX WITH               
ICE AND SLEET...SO WILL CHANGE SNOW ADVISORIES TO WINTER WEATHER                
ADVISORIES THERE.                                                               
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY              
EXPECTED DUE TO THE MIX...HOWEVER ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE IN MOST                
AREAS. WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING AND ROADS ARE STILL IN             
FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...WILL DOWNGRADE WARNING TO ADVISORY.                         
WILL BASE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAINLY ON RUC MODEL 925 AND              
850 MB WET BULB ZERO TEMPS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON LURKING JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH             
EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL MOSAIC SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF                      
PRECIPITATION MOVG STEADILY NE ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SNOW WAS                
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS WELL.                     
GFS AND NAM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES.             
MODELS SHIFT SUBSTANTIAL FORCING AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA                     
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY           
AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS               
WESTERN KENTUCKY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM AND GFS BOTH            
SHOW ALL PRECIP TYPES POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY...WITH GENERALLY            
SNOW ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO AND WABASH RIVERS. BOTH MODELS             
SUGGEST BEST QPF OVER WEST KENTUCKY AS WELL...WHICH LINES UP WELL               
WITH HPC GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE R/ZR/IP/S FOR COUNTIES BORDERING TN.               
WILL KEEP MORE SLEET AND SNOW WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE ZR NORTH OF             
THERE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THAT SAID...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO               
CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. SEE THE WWA SECTION BELOW FOR                  
DETAILS. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST GREATEST                     
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW MAY BE OVER EVV TRI STATE...WITH AN AXIS                   
EXTENDING SW CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER...AND ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE               
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. JUST SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...WHERE MORE OF A MIX IS            
POSSIBLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A                  
LITTLE LOWER AS WELL FROM PTNS OF SE MISSOURI INTO SW ILLINOIS.                 
OVERALL...STILL A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE CALL AT THIS POINT.                 
EXPECT A RAPID DEPARTURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...FIRST OVER SE                   
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION             
BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF HANGING BACK JUST A                   
TAD...THE PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING                  
DRIZZLE.                                                                        
DRY WX IS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MID            
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A BROAD TROF              
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD            
MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL.             
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.                      
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY                 
SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISONVILLE.                                                 
WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR PENNYRILE                 
REGION FROM MADISONVILLE NORTH AND EAST.                                        
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES TODAY.                            
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR EDWARDS...WABASH...WHITE AND GALLATIN             
COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.                                            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY.                        
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY/KES                                                                 
PREVIOUS...CN                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
325 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL               
FOR SNOW TONIGHT.                                                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM DEPICTS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER                    
SOUTHEAST IOWA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWEEPING AROUND THIS LOW IS OVER               
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SURFACE                    
ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW OVER INDIANA BORDERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER OTHER MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW IS            
OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.                
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING             
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO                  
GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                                     
THE LOW OVER INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO                   
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKE PUSH INTO             
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC             
STATES. THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE             
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN WILL MIGRATE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI            
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THE SURFACE               
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF THE WEST. LAKE-850MB DELTA-T'S WILL               
DECREASE TO AROUND 14C OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL                
FEED SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND                
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THE LOWEST INVERSION WILL LOWER TO               
925MB OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW GROWTH AND THE AMOUNT OF                
SNOW PRODUCED. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE BUT LIGHT AND SCATTERED.                    
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ITS                  
EASTWARD TREK ON FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE                
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE            
PUSHES INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE DEEPER              
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE WILL             
RELOCATE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A                   
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST                 
CANADA AND INTO THE LAKE WINNIPEG AREA. A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL             
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE GENERATED            
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. DELTA-T'S WILL BE BE AROUND 11C OVER THE              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BASE OF THE LOWEST INVERSION WILL BE                 
AROUND 900MB WILL SOME FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THIS LEVEL.               
SURFACE-900MB RH CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 90 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE            
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGHOUT THE            
DAY ON FRIDAY.                                                                  
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA WILL SWEEP INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND THE WESTERN U.P. FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO                
JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES              
INTO WESTERN U.P. AS THESE DO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT              
TO SEE SNOWS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.              
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON               
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO WHILE             
DRAWING THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN U.P. INSTABILITY                    
ASSOCIATED THIS TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND 90             
PERCENT OVER THE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING THROUGH SATURDAY.              
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY              
NIGHT. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER ONTARIO AND INCREASE             
THE DELTA-T'S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 20C BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THE            
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVER LAKE                
SUPERIOR...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND                  
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.                                                           
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL EDGE INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC             
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW            
WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO                
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...WHILE AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH STALLS            
OUT OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. MEAN RH IN A SURFACE TO 500MB LAYER WILL              
BE > 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T'S WILL BE            
16C TO 20C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GREATEST DELTA-T'S WILL BE OVER              
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE. THUS CONDITIONS LOOK FAVOR LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.               
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH THE WEAK                   
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MID LEVEL             
LOW WILL SLIDE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST DRAWING THE WEAK SHORTWAVES TO             
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE PUSHES INTO              
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO             
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST             
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERRUNNING OF THIS FRONT WILL                   
CONTINUE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP SNOW GOING OVER THE AERA. THE               
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1211 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY 00Z.             
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY 06Z. AHEAD OF              
THIS LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DTW AREA BY             
23Z AND THE MBS AREA AROUND 02Z. STORM DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE DURING            
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE               
REGION BY 03-06Z. THE LOW WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST OF THE REGION                 
AFTER 12Z...WITH MVFR CONDITION RETURNING TO THE REGION AFTER                   
13Z...AND SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 15Z WITH CIGS RISING TO            
020-025. WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 12KT OR LESS THROUGH THE              
PERIOD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...HOWEVER WIND DIRECTIONS                
WILL BE SHIFTING RAPIDLY BETWEEN 04-09Z AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM              
TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF DTW.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EARLY WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI                  
VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS               
MANIFESTING ITSELF IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INDIANA              
AND ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THE DEFORMATION AXIS IS BECOMING MUCH                
MORE DEFINED ACROSS THE ST LOUIS AREA...WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS                     
OCCURRING. 12Z SUITE OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A QUICK BUT               
INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE                
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MID TO                   
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS (INCLUDING VERY PRONOUNCED LEFT EXIT JET                   
DYNAMICS) AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL                          
DEFORMATION AXIS (TROWAL) PRODUCING DEEP LAYER LIFT (ON THE ORDER               
OF 15-20 UB/S IN THE ETA)...WEAK STABILITY ALOFT INTRODUCING THE                
PROSPECTS OF UPRIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE TROWAL AXIS...AND                    
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH MICROPHYSICS (BEST ASCENT OCCURRING IN THE                
-13 TO -18C RANGE) SUPPORTING INCREASED SNOW EFFICIENCY...WILL                  
GENERATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE LATE EVENING AND POST                
MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE                        
EXPECTED...AND COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER IF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY              
IS COMPLETELY REALIZED. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE              
ITS SHORT DURATION...WITH ESSENTIALLY 6 HOURS OF GOOD ACCUMULATING              
SNOW EXPECTED. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL DECREASE TO THE NORTH...WHERE THE           
FORCING AND OTHER EXTENUATING FACTORS WILL BE MORE LIMITED.                     
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 319 AM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE FIRST SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ARRIVES TONIGHT!             
RELATIVELY COMPACT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS              
APPEARS TO BE MAKING A BEELINE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PLACING THE             
REGION IN THE WELL DEVELOPED COMMA HEAD TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY            
IS CONCERNING...AS THERE IS A PINEAPPLE CONNECTION WITH THE MOISTURE            
STREAMING INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. 850 MB FLOW OVER THE LOWER                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BACKED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALREADY. 00Z               
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE                
OVER EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS. EVEN WITH LIMITED                 
MOISTURE ENTRAINED THUS FAR...THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED 8 INCHES                 
OF SNOW IN AND AROUND THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. MEANWHILE...A                 
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1040 MB) RESIDES OVER THE OHIO                    
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL                     
PROVIDE A NICE COLD DOME FOR THE TROWAL TO WORK OVER. TRYING TO PIN             
DOWN THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW ONE THE BIGGEST FORECAST DIFFICULTIES.            
MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MOVING THROUGH NW               
OHIO AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE ERIE (INDICATED BY THE NAM                 
YESTERDAY). NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DEEPER LOW...WITH THE RUC13             
THE DEEPEST AND FARTHEST NORTH (THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN). THAT               
WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE              
CWA. DON'T REALLY SEE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THAT FAR NORTH INTO              
THE COLD AIR ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. PREFERENCE OUT OF HPC IS                
WITH THE GFS...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ME. IN ANY EVENT...700              
MB LIFT FORECASTED BY THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH VERY IMPRESSIVE (10              
TO 20 -UBAR/S) OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...RIGHT IN THE IDEAL             
SNOW GROWTH REGION (AROUND -14 C PER GFS). THE PROBLEM WITH THIS                
EVENT IS THAT INTENSE LIFT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW.            
WITH HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (20-15 TO 1)...CAN EASILY BE LOOKING            
AT 1.5 INCH/HR RATES WHICH PLACES TOTALS RIGHT AT THE 12 HOUR                   
WARNING CRITERIA. VERY TOUGH CALL ON WHAT TO DO...WITH 4 TO 7 INCH              
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THE COBB TECHNIQUE BASED OFF THE GFS GIVES DETROIT            
5.7 INCHES AND THE FLINT AREA 5.1 INCHES. 12 HR QPF FORECAST FROM               
GFS WAS 0.32 INCHES OVER THE KANSAS CITY AREA (18-6Z)...KMCI CAME IN            
WITH 0.35 INCHES. GFS FORECASTS A 12 HR QPF BULLSEYE OF 0.34 INCHES             
MOVING INTO WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS 290 K SURFACE                  
INDICATES SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 3 G/KG TRYING TO SNEAK INTO               
THE CWA...ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY.                                                                         
WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO AHEAD AND                 
ISSUE A WATCH FROM I-69 SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST QPF LOOKS TO BE             
ACROSS THE SOUTH...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE MAXIMIZED FARTHER              
NORTH...AND THUS EXPECTED THE HEAVIEST TOTALS TO FALL ALONG OR JUST             
SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON COULD              
EVEN ENHANCE AMOUNTS AROUND PORT HURON...WITH UP TO 8 INCHES                    
POSSIBLE...AS THAT AREA ALSO CORRESPONDS TO THE BEST LIFT ADVERTISED            
BY THE GFS.                                                                     
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TIME SPENT ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE             
LONGWAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE THE SAME...WITH DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH            
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND                   
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND                  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH 00Z GFS/EUROPEAN INDICATING            
THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING (COLD               
FRONT)...DID RAISE POPS TO 40 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.               
ALSO LOWERED MAXES ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. OTHERWISE NO                 
CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...HEAVY SNOW WARNING...MIZ055-MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-            
     MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...6 PM THURSDAY                  
     TO 6 AM FRIDAY.                                                            
     SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054...6 PM                  
     THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY.                                                   
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MANN                                                               
AVIATION.....GSS                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
647 AM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VERY COLD MORNING TEMPS ARE RESULTING IN SOME MVFR VISIBILITY                   
OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND                  
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MVFR CEILING IN LAKE STRATUS                
WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER AROUND THE DETROIT TERMINALS BUT IT TOO               
WILL MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING.                               
LATER THIS MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT ALL SITES AND THEN DETERIORATE     
RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. VISIBILITY              
AND CEILING WILL DROP QUICKLY THROUGH MVFR AND IFR AFTER 00Z THIS               
EVENING, AND INTO LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL              
SPREAD FROM SW TO NE OVER THE AREA AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LATER                 
TIMING OF ONSET AROUND MBS.                                                     
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK FROM NEAR INDIANAPOLIS AT                    
SUNSET THIS EVENING, TO NEAR TOLEDO BY MIDNIGHT, AND THEN TOWARD                
THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL                   
DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 319 AM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE FIRST SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ARRIVES TONIGHT!             
RELATIVELY COMPACT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS              
APPEARS TO BE MAKING A BEELINE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PLACING THE             
REGION IN THE WELL DEVELOPED COMMA HEAD TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY            
IS CONCERNING...AS THERE IS A PINEAPPLE CONNECTION WITH THE MOISTURE            
STREAMING INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. 850 MB FLOW OVER THE LOWER                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BACKED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALREADY. 00Z               
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE                
OVER EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS. EVEN WITH LIMITED                 
MOISTURE ENTRAINED THUS FAR...THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED 8 INCHES                 
OF SNOW IN AND AROUND THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. MEANWHILE...A                 
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1040 MB) RESIDES OVER THE OHIO                    
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL                     
PROVIDE A NICE COLD DOME FOR THE TROWAL TO WORK OVER. TRYING TO PIN             
DOWN THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW ONE THE BIGGEST FORECAST DIFFICULTIES.            
MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MOVING THROUGH NW               
OHIO AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE ERIE (INDICATED BY THE NAM                 
YESTERDAY). NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DEEPER LOW...WITH THE RUC13             
THE DEEPEST AND FARTHEST NORTH (THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN). THAT               
WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE              
CWA. DON'T REALLY SEE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THAT FAR NORTH INTO              
THE COLD AIR ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. PREFERENCE OUT OF HPC IS                
WITH THE GFS...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ME. IN ANY EVENT...700              
MB LIFT FORECASTED BY THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH VERY IMPRESSIVE (10              
TO 20 -UBAR/S) OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...RIGHT IN THE IDEAL             
SNOW GROWTH REGION (AROUND -14 C PER GFS). THE PROBLEM WITH THIS                
EVENT IS THAT INTENSE LIFT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW.            
WITH HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (20-15 TO 1)...CAN EASILY BE LOOKING            
AT 1.5 INCH/HR RATES WHICH PLACES TOTALS RIGHT AT THE 12 HOUR                   
WARNING CRITERIA. VERY TOUGH CALL ON WHAT TO DO...WITH 4 TO 7 INCH              
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THE COBB TECHNIQUE BASED OFF THE GFS GIVES DETROIT            
5.7 INCHES AND THE FLINT AREA 5.1 INCHES. 12 HR QPF FORECAST FROM               
GFS WAS 0.32 INCHES OVER THE KANSAS CITY AREA (18-6Z)...KMCI CAME IN            
WITH 0.35 INCHES. GFS FORECASTS A 12 HR QPF BULLSEYE OF 0.34 INCHES             
MOVING INTO WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS 290 K SURFACE                  
INDICATES SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 3 G/KG TRYING TO SNEAK INTO               
THE CWA...ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY.                                                                         
WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO AHEAD AND                 
ISSUE A WATCH FROM I-69 SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST QPF LOOKS TO BE             
ACROSS THE SOUTH...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE MAXIMIZED FARTHER              
NORTH...AND THUS EXPECTED THE HEAVIEST TOTALS TO FALL ALONG OR JUST             
SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON COULD              
EVEN ENHANCE AMOUNTS AROUND PORT HURON...WITH UP TO 8 INCHES                    
POSSIBLE...AS THAT AREA ALSO CORRESPONDS TO THE BEST LIFT ADVERTISED            
BY THE GFS.                                                                     
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TIME SPENT ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE             
LONGWAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE THE SAME...WITH DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH            
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND                   
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND                  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH 00Z GFS/EUROPEAN INDICATING            
THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING (COLD               
FRONT)...DID RAISE POPS TO 40 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.               
ALSO LOWERED MAXES ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. OTHERWISE NO                 
CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
QUIET FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST...BUT THINGS GO DOWN HILL QUICKLY                
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ON THROUGH THE EVENING AS VERY DYNAMIC                
UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEPENING              
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. CONFIGURATION              
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY               
SNOW TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DTW/DET (AND FOR THE MOST PART FNT).              
WILL END VFR CONDITIONS IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...AND BRING ON                 
MVFR AND IFR WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE             
SNOW. THIS WILL CARRY THROUGH TO 06Z BEFORE BEST LIFT BEGINS TO                 
SPREAD EAST OF THE REGION.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH...MIZ055-MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-            
     MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...6 PM THURSDAY                  
     TO 6 AM FRIDAY.                                                            
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BT                                                                   
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1100 AM CST THU DEC 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT SHORTLY TO CANCEL SNOW ADVISORY ALONG AND             
WEST OF A MT. STERLING TO TROY MO TO UNION LINE...MAINLY BASED ON               
RADAR TRENDS.  THE CANCELLED AREAS HAVE OR WILL SHORTLY END THEIR               
ACCUMULATING SNOW.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE 2 TO 3 INCHES              
OVER CNTRL MO WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN NE MO/W CNTRL IL.  SPOTTER JUST             
CALLED FROM EWING IN LEWIS COUNTY MO WITH A TOTAL NEAR 7 INCHES.                
FARTHER SOUTHEST...MESOSCALE BANDING REMAINS IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR                
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW REPORTS COMMON OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS              
AT THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA OB SITES.  LATEST RUC STILL SHOWS THE               
DECENT COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND MID LEVEL                   
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SYSTEM TRANSLATING EWD INTO IL              
THROUGH 21Z.  AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY             
THIS AFTERNOON WITH S CNTRL IL LOCATIONS CONTINUING MOST OF THE                 
AFTERNOON.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 2-3 INCHES IN THE              
METRO AREA WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OVER NEAR VANDALIA AND SALEM IL.                 
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR JEFFERSON-                 
     ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-                       
IL...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN            
     IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-                  
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-                  
     ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRITT                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
913 AM CST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM CNTRL AND NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL CAME IN                  
WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES THIS MORNING. THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH              
WEST OF OF A FULTON TO QUINCY LINE...BUT AREAS TO THE EAST SHOULD               
STILL SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.                                        
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THAT SSW-NNE MESOSCALE              
BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI              
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. VIH IS ON THE TAIL END OF ONE OF THESE                  
BANDS AND IS STILL REPORTING 1/2SM SN. EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW WAS                 
LATE TO START THIS MORNING IN THE STL METRO AREA BECAUSE OF THE                 
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...THE REPORTING STATIONS ARE CURRENTLY AOB 1SM                
VISIBILITY. RADAR IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF +SN               
OUT THERE...AND THE LATEST RUC RUN INDICATES THAT THE COMBINATION               
OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING SHOLD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE                  
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE 2 TO 4 INCH FORECAST               
FROM AROUND THE STL METRO OVER TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL IL.                         
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FRANKLIN-                  
     JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE.                
     GENEVIEVE-WARREN.                                                          
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-             
     CALLAWAY-COLE-GASCONADE-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-                 
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.                                        
IL...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN            
     IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-                  
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-                  
     ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.                                                
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN             
     IL-PIKE IL.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRITT                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
940 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE AREA OF SNOW CURRENTLY ENTERING EXTREME                   
SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN ELONGATED AREA               
OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN                   
KENTUCKY. HEAVIEST SNOWS CURRENTLY IN AREA OF STRONG MID LEVEL                  
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST NORTH OF WEAK                  
SURFACE REFLECTION OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. LATEST RUC AND NAM                
SUGGESTING SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DEEPEN AND TAKE AN EAST NORTHEAST            
TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT 3 HOUR PRESSURE              
FALLS...THINK MODEL TRACK IS REASONABLE...THEREFORE KEEPING PRIMARY             
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/DEFORMATION ZONE JUST TO THE                    
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SHARP DRY SLOT SEEN ON WATER               
VAPOR LOOP CUTTING INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO TAKING AIM ON                
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE RUC AND                    
NAM...WHICH MODESTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS            
POINT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW END ADVISORY FOR THE AREA...BY EDGING                 
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA DOWN TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT.               
THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR SOME LINGERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS            
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS                
AWAY FROM THE AREA.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST                       
TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY              
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL                
BRING A WIDESPREAD AND STEADY SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA                  
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN EDGING THE               
SURFACE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EACH RUN...WHICH             
WOULD PLACE SOUTHWESTERN NY IN THE REGION OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL                 
FORCING AND WAA SNOW PATTERN. WE EXPECT A GENERAL SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 6            
INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE MAY BE GREATER                   
AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND OVER THE               
SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND                    
GFS...BOTH ARE SIMILAR IN TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT             
TENDED SNOW COVERAGE CLOSER TO GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE OFFERED BY             
GFS RATHER THAN THE WIDER RANGE OF SNOW AMOUNTS FROM NAM. THERE WILL            
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE F/A TONIGHT AND               
EARLY FRIDAY.                                                                   
FLAT RIDGING FOLLOWING THE LOW ON SATURDAY WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD              
ENOUGH FOR ONLY A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW                        
SHOWERS...IF AT ALL. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES              
WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER                
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
THE WINTRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE             
UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES                 
REGION. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND                
MINUS 15C THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THEN JUST A LITTLE WARMER                  
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE                 
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL              
LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ABRUPTLY DROP TO IFR IN SNOW LATE THIS EVENING              
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF NEW YORK AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST              
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT REACHING WATERTOWN AROUND 2 AM. THE SNOW IS                   
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY MIDDAY OVER WESTERN AREAS AND LATER            
IN THE DAY EAST BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT AND FOR                 
AWHILE FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED BY MID TO             
LATE MORNING ON THE EAST ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.                   
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...SNOW ADVISORY ALL ZONES THURS NT INTO FRIDAY.                             
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TMA                                                                    
SHORT TERM...HIBBERT                                                            
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SAGE                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION.                                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
955 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
...THE ADVISORY ENDING TIME WILL BE CHANGED TO RUN THROUGH 800 AM OR            
13Z/09 DECEMBER...                                                              
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES ALREADY IN EFFECT. QPF SHOULD BE             
MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...                                         
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CITY NJ (1037 MB) WAS OF             
ARCTIC ORIGIN BUT WAS SHIFTING EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THE              
HIGH LEFT RESIDUAL COLD DRY AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION...             
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVERNIGHT. THE                 
00Z/09 DECEMBER GREENSBORO RAOB PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES WERE                   
1304/1553 UP FROM THE 1293/1544 VALUES AT 18Z/08... INDICATING SOME             
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR NW-N PIEDMONT.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
...PROBLEMS OF THE NIGHT INCLUDE: THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION                   
(CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE QPF MAY ONLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND               
0.40)... DOWN FROM THE EARLIER PROJECTIONS)... AND HOW MUCH OF THIS             
WILL FREEZE AND ACCRUE ON EXPOSED OBJECTS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT                  
DAMMING REGION?...                                                              
...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE NOW... (RAIN... EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN               
OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH RAIN OVER THE NW PIEDMONT)...                           
FIRST THE PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF... (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON                
RECENT TRENDS). PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE            
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN (OUR NW TIER OF PIEDMONT COUNTIES) THIS                    
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE A LOWERING                     
OVERCAST AT GSO AND INT BUT NO PRECIPITATION AS OF 900 PM.                      
UPSTREAM... THERE REMAINS A DISCONNECT FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH                 
PRECIP EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA UP THE SC COAST... AND THE PRECIP                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE TN VALLEY AND OHIO              
VALLEY. A DEFINITE MINIMUM CONTINUED FROM ATLANTA TO GSP TO CLT AND             
GSO. THE MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE OVER FORECAST THE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC           
LIFT OVER THIS REGION... 35-40 KNOTS OF H8 WIND OBSERVED  AT 00Z/09             
AS OPPOSED TO 50-55 KNOTS MODEL FORECASTS. THUS... EVEN THOUGH THE              
RADAR INDICATED PRECIPITATION "FILLING IN" OVER THIS REGION SINCE               
800 PM... IT WAS STILL RATHER UNORGANIZED. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE             
THAT THE EVENTUAL PRECIP (QPF)... WILL END UP ONLY ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4             
OF OUR ORIGINAL FORECAST. THIS WOULD BRING A QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50                
STORM TOTAL BEFORE IT ENDS AROUND DAYBREAK.                                     
AS FOR P-TYPE... HIGH CONFIDENCE HERE. REASONING...                             
SEVERAL LARGE PATCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED NE ACROSS THE                 
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS SINCE 600 PM. PRECIPITATION BEGAN              
AS VERY LIGHT SNOW IN SURRY COUNTY (40 NW OF WINSTON-SALEM) AROUND              
700 PM... BUT QUICKLY BECAME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE TEMPERATURE AT            
THE ONSET OF PRECIP AT DOBSON WAS 32... AND THE 900 PM READING WAS              
29... INDICATING THE AFFECTS OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE HEART OF             
THE CURRENT DEVELOPING INSITU-DAMMING EVENT. HAVING THE                         
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN                    
FOOTHILLS INDICATES THE WARMING ALOFT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WAS                
WELL UNDERWAY. THIS STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST P-TYPE OF            
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE FAR NW PIEDMONT (STILL COULD BE MIXED WITH A              
LITTLE NUISANCE SLEET AT THE ONSET)... AND RAIN ELSEWHERE.                      
IN THE NEARBY PIEDMONT TRIAD CITIES OF WINSTON-SALEM AND                        
GREENSBORO... THE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 33-34 DEGREES               
WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S... INDICATING THAT WET BULB            
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL HOLDING IN THE 28 TO 31 RANGE. HAD                      
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MOVED IN EARLIER... THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN             
SOME GLAZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES ALREADY.                                       
00Z/09 DECEMBER GREENSBORO RAOB INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WARMING (7-9              
DEGREES F) AT 3-4K FEET WITH AN INCREASING SSE JET AT THAT LEVEL.               
UPSTREAM AT ATLANTA... THE TEMP AT 5K FEET HAD SURGED TO 50 DEGREES             
WITH A SW WIND AT 40 KNOTS. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE WARMER               
TEMPS NOTED OVER THE HIGHER SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NC (SW OF AVL)               
WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE 40S. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONTINUED TO                
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION              
FROM HICKORY TO STATESVILLE AND MOCKSVILLE.                                     
FREEZING RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL NC                  
ADVISORY AREA OF THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND OR NEAR 1200 AM. HOWEVER...             
THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY                  
SHALLOW... AS THE COLUMN WARMS FROM THE TOP DOWN LATER TONIGHT. THIS            
WILL LIMIT ACCRUAL OF GLAZE. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL GREATLY LIMIT             
ACCRUAL NEAR THE GROUND LEVEL WILL BE THE PAVEMENT TEMPS THAT WERE              
RUNNING IN THE MID 40S AT THE GSO AIRPORT AT MID EVENING. GROUND                
TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S... INDICATING THAT IT                 
WOULD TAKE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR SLEET TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT                
ACCUMULATIONS ON MAIN ROADS.                                                    
WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL STRESS THAT               
FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS            
TREE BRANCHES... GRASS BLADES... TRAILINGS... VEHICLE WINDSHIELD...             
SIDEWALKS... AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. GLAZING MAY              
ACCRUE TO BETWEEN A TENTH OR LOCALLY TWO TENTHS BEFORE ENDING. BASED            
ON THE CURRENT AND PROJECTED WET BULB TEMPS... THERE MAY BE A LITTLE            
LIGHT GLAZING OBSERVED  AS FAR EAST AND SOUTH AS PERSON... NORTHERN             
DURHAM.. NORTHWEST ORANGE AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES.\                     
RAIN IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS WET BULB TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY UP FROM             
32-35 RIGHT NOW.                                                                
PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DRY COLD               
WEATHER TO RETURN FRIDAY.                                                       
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.                                                        
BADGETT                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 245 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: QUESTION MARKS STILL REMAIN REGARDING THIS              
PRECIP EVENT. AS EXPECTED THE PARENT HIGH TO OUR NORTH HAS BROKEN               
FREE FROM THE MORE ARCTIC MIDWEST HIGH... ALTHOUGH OUR HIGH IS                  
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND THE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW            
DEGREES BELOW EARLIER FORECASTS... WHICH BRINGS ABOUT CONCERN WHEN              
ONE TRIES TO TAKE THE MODELS AT FACE VALUE. THE HIGH HAS SLID EAST              
TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE TRANSITORY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO THE            
1030S TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE... HOWEVER ITS STRENGTH IS STILL            
DECENT AND WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS AND LIKELY INSTIGATES AN                      
AGEOSTROPHIC SURFACE WIND ADJUSTMENT TO A MORE UNIFORM NNE                      
DIRECTION... THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AND               
COUPLED WITH A LITTLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE LOW LEVELS... JUST             
ENOUGH TO BUMP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST.              
THE 18Z GSO SOUNDING ARRIVED WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 5-9 METERS              
COLDER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. FINALLY... EVEN MODEL PROGS OF SURFACE             
WET BULB TEMPS ARE RUNNING COOLER BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE                 
LATEST RUNS... THE RUC INCLUDED. IN SUMMARY... GIVEN THE STRONGER               
DRIER HIGH AND COOLER OBSERVED THERMAL PROFILE ALONG WITH MODEL                 
PROGS TRENDING TO A COOLER SURFACE WET BULB... HAVE DECIDED TO                  
EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO GUILFORD... DAVIDSON... RANDOLPH... AND                  
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. A BIG ISSUE IS THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP... WHICH                
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS AND WHICH SHOULD KEEP ICE ACCRUAL            
LIGHT BEFORE THE MASSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES TOWARD                       
MIDNIGHT... AS 850 MB WINDS ACCELERATE UP TO 50-60 KTS. THIS STRONG             
WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE IN MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT              
EARLY ENOUGH SO THAT WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THERE... IT SHOULD BE              
ALL RAIN... THUS DID NOT EXPAND THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE VA BORDER               
COUNTIES OF THE NE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. IF ANY BIT OF ZR DOES                 
OCCUR... IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR... NORTH            
OF THE TRIANGLE. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE PAVEMENT TEMPS              
WHICH ARE REPORTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA...                
ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE VERY CAREFULLY DURING THIS                 
EVENING. ELEVATED SURFACES ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH COOLER HOWEVER.                
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT WET BULBS... AROUND 29             
TO 38. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT TREND OF PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE                  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING. PREFER THE COOLER MAV                   
GUIDANCE HIGHS WITH SKIES CLEARING AND A BLUSTERY NW WIND.                      
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WITH A PORTION OF THE SURFACE              
HIGH PARKED OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS DROPPING DOWN TO CALM...            
EXPECT CHILLY LOWS OF 19-27. LAST NIGHT'S LOWS BENEATH THIS AIR MASS            
WERE BELOW 0F SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE QUITE A FEW TEENS. A              
DAMPENING WAVE ZIPS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BUT HAS NO             
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND SHOULD BRING JUST A FEW CLOUDS AT MOST.               
WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COLUMN BUT THE SURFACE AIR              
MASS SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO MODIFY NOMINALLY... AND HIGH TEMPS                  
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY...  ABOUT 48-53. -GIH                       
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...                    
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD... CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE                
PERSISTENCE OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE             
PERIOD... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IN THE GFS AND            
ECMWF MODELS AND THEIR LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER BRING ABOUT            
MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. THE                
MORE CONSISTENT CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO BE AS GOOD A SOLUTION AS                
ANY... KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE WITH RIDGING HOLDING IN THE                  
WESTERN US AND PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA THROUGH NC INTO THE TROUGH                
BASE EVERY 2 DAYS OR SO. EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH              
SUCH A PATTERN... AND BARRING ANY PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS WAVES... THE            
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM                
EITHER A LITTLE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION ALOFT OR                  
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF HIGHER CLOUDS WITH A DEEP AND SPEEDY W TO             
NW FLOW UP THROUGH THE COLUMN. TEMPS ROUGHLY A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL            
EACH DAY. -GIH                                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
MID CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THIS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.             
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLY THIS EVENING.                 
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE FORM OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW            
HOURS EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY AT KINT AND KGSO. VISIBILITIES WILL                
DECREASE TO MVFR/IFR IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HOVER                  
AROUND 1 MILE FROM 06Z THROUGH SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO             
MVFR 00-04Z...THEN IFR OR LIFR 10-14Z WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT WEST TO            
EAST FRI MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.            
-RFG                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NCZ021>023-038-039 UNTIL 8 AM                       
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/LOCKLEAR/REU                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
955 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
...NO CHANGES IN THE ADVISORIES ALREADY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER... QPF               
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...                               
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CITY NJ (1037 MB) WAS OF             
ARCTIC ORIGIN BUT WAS SHIFTING EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THE              
HIGH LEFT RESIDUAL COLD DRY AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION...             
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVERNIGHT. THE                 
00Z/09 DECEMBER GREENSBORO RAOB PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES WERE                   
1304/1553 UP FROM THE 1293/1544 VALUES AT 18Z/08... INDICATING SOME             
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR NW-N PIEDMONT.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
...PROBLEMS OF THE NIGHT INCLUDE: THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION                   
(CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE QPF MAY ONLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND               
0.40)... DOWN FROM THE EARLIER PROJECTIONS)... AND HOW MUCH OF THIS             
WILL FREEZE AND ACCRUE ON EXPOSED OBJECTS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT                  
DAMMING REGION?...                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...                                                       
...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE NOW... (RAIN... EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN               
OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH RAIN OVER THE NW PIEDMONT)...                           
FIRST THE PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF... (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON                
RECENT TRENDS). PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE            
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN (OUR NW TIER OF PIEDMONT COUNTIES) THIS                    
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE A LOWERING                     
OVERCAST AT GSO AND INT BUT NO PRECIPITATION AS OF 900 PM.                      
UPSTREAM... THERE REMAINS A DISCONNECT FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH                 
PRECIP EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA UP THE SC COAST... AND THE PRECIP                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE TN VALLEY AND OHIO              
VALLEY. A DEFINITE MINIMUM CONTINUED FROM ATLANTA TO GSP TO CLT AND             
GSO. THE MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE OVER FORECAST THE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC           
LIFT OVER THIS REGION... 35-40 KNOTS OF H8 WIND OBSERVED  AT 00Z/09             
AS OPPOSED TO 50-55 KNOTS MODEL FORECASTS. THUS... EVEN THOUGH THE              
RADAR INDICATED PRECIPITATION "FILLING IN" OVER THIS REGION SINCE               
800 PM... IT WAS STILL RATHER UNORGANIZED. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE             
THAT THE EVENTUAL PRECIP (QPF)... WILL END UP ONLY ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4             
OF OUR ORIGINAL FORECAST. THIS WOULD BRING A QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50                
STORM TOTAL BEFORE IT ENDS AROUND DAYBREAK.                                     
AS FOR P-TYPE... HIGH CONFIDENCE HERE. REASONING...                             
SEVERAL LARGE PATCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED NE ACROSS THE                 
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS SINCE 600 PM. PRECIPITATION BEGAN              
AS VERY LIGHT SNOW IN SURRY COUNTY (40 NW OF WINSTON-SALEM) AROUND              
700 PM... BUT QUICKLY BECAME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE TEMPERATURE AT            
THE ONSET OF PRECIP AT DOBSON WAS 32... AND THE 900 PM READING WAS              
29... INDICATING THE AFFECTS OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE HEART OF             
THE CURRENT DEVELOPING INSITU-DAMMING EVENT. HAVING THE                         
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN                    
FOOTHILLS INDICATES THE WARMING ALOFT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WAS                
WELL UNDERWAY. THIS STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST P-TYPE OF            
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE FAR NW PIEDMONT (STILL COULD BE MIXED WITH A              
LITTLE NUISANCE SLEET AT THE ONSET)... AND RAIN ELSEWHERE.                      
IN THE NEARBY PIEDMONT TRIAD CITIES OF WINSTON-SALEM AND                        
GREENSBORO... THE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 33-34 DEGREES               
WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S... INDICATING THAT WET BULB            
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL HOLDING IN THE 28 TO 31 RANGE. HAD                      
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MOVED IN EARLIER... THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN             
SOME GLAZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES ALREADY.                                       
00Z/09 DECEMBER GREENSBORO RAOB INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WARMING (7-9              
DEGREES F) AT 3-4K FEET WITH AN INCREASING SSE JET AT THAT LEVEL.               
UPSTREAM AT ATLANTA... THE TEMP AT 5K FEET HAD SURGED TO 50 DEGREES             
WITH A SW WIND AT 40 KNOTS. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE WARMER               
TEMPS NOTED OVER THE HIGHER SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NC (SW OF AVL)               
WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE 40S. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONTINUED TO                
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION              
FROM HICKORY TO STATESVILLE AND MOCKSVILLE.                                     
FREEZING RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL NC                  
ADVISORY AREA OF THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND OR NEAR 1200 AM. HOWEVER...             
THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY                  
SHALLOW... AS THE COLUMN WARMS FROM THE TOP DOWN LATER TONIGHT. THIS            
WILL LIMIT ACCRUAL OF GLAZE. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL GREATLY LIMIT             
ACCRUAL NEAR THE GROUND LEVEL WILL BE THE PAVEMENT TEMPS THAT WERE              
RUNNING IN THE MID 40S AT THE GSO AIRPORT AT MID EVENING. GROUND                
TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S... INDICATING THAT IT                 
WOULD TAKE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR SLEET TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT                
ACCUMULATIONS ON MAIN ROADS.                                                    
WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL STRESS THAT               
FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS            
TREE BRANCHES... GRASS BLADES... TRAILINGS... VEHICLE WINDSHIELD...             
SIDEWALKS... AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. GLAZING MAY              
ACCRUE TO BETWEEN A TENTH OR LOCALLY TWO TENTHS BEFORE ENDING. BASED            
ON THE CURRENT AND PROJECTED WET BULB TEMPS... THERE MAY BE A LITTLE            
LIGHT GLAZING OBSERVED  AS FAR EAST AND SOUTH AS PERSON... NORTHERN             
DURHAM.. NORTHWEST ORANGE AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES.\                     
RAIN IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS WET BULB TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY UP FROM             
32-35 RIGHT NOW.                                                                
PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DRY COLD               
WEATHER TO RETURN FRIDAY.                                                       
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.                                                        
BADGETT                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 245 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: QUESTION MARKS STILL REMAIN REGARDING THIS              
PRECIP EVENT. AS EXPECTED THE PARENT HIGH TO OUR NORTH HAS BROKEN               
FREE FROM THE MORE ARCTIC MIDWEST HIGH... ALTHOUGH OUR HIGH IS                  
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND THE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW            
DEGREES BELOW EARLIER FORECASTS... WHICH BRINGS ABOUT CONCERN WHEN              
ONE TRIES TO TAKE THE MODELS AT FACE VALUE. THE HIGH HAS SLID EAST              
TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE TRANSITORY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO THE            
1030S TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE... HOWEVER ITS STRENGTH IS STILL            
DECENT AND WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS AND LIKELY INSTIGATES AN                      
AGEOSTROPHIC SURFACE WIND ADJUSTMENT TO A MORE UNIFORM NNE                      
DIRECTION... THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AND               
COUPLED WITH A LITTLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE LOW LEVELS... JUST             
ENOUGH TO BUMP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST.              
THE 18Z GSO SOUNDING ARRIVED WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 5-9 METERS              
COLDER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. FINALLY... EVEN MODEL PROGS OF SURFACE             
WET BULB TEMPS ARE RUNNING COOLER BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE                 
LATEST RUNS... THE RUC INCLUDED. IN SUMMARY... GIVEN THE STRONGER               
DRIER HIGH AND COOLER OBSERVED THERMAL PROFILE ALONG WITH MODEL                 
PROGS TRENDING TO A COOLER SURFACE WET BULB... HAVE DECIDED TO                  
EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO GUILFORD... DAVIDSON... RANDOLPH... AND                  
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. A BIG ISSUE IS THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP... WHICH                
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS AND WHICH SHOULD KEEP ICE ACCRUAL            
LIGHT BEFORE THE MASSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES TOWARD                       
MIDNIGHT... AS 850 MB WINDS ACCELERATE UP TO 50-60 KTS. THIS STRONG             
WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE IN MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT              
EARLY ENOUGH SO THAT WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THERE... IT SHOULD BE              
ALL RAIN... THUS DID NOT EXPAND THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE VA BORDER               
COUNTIES OF THE NE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. IF ANY BIT OF ZR DOES                 
OCCUR... IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR... NORTH            
OF THE TRIANGLE. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE PAVEMENT TEMPS              
WHICH ARE REPORTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA...                
ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE VERY CAREFULLY DURING THIS                 
EVENING. ELEVATED SURFACES ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH COOLER HOWEVER.                
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT WET BULBS... AROUND 29             
TO 38. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT TREND OF PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE                  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING. PREFER THE COOLER MAV                   
GUIDANCE HIGHS WITH SKIES CLEARING AND A BLUSTERY NW WIND.                      
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WITH A PORTION OF THE SURFACE              
HIGH PARKED OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS DROPPING DOWN TO CALM...            
EXPECT CHILLY LOWS OF 19-27. LAST NIGHT'S LOWS BENEATH THIS AIR MASS            
WERE BELOW 0F SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE QUITE A FEW TEENS. A              
DAMPENING WAVE ZIPS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BUT HAS NO             
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND SHOULD BRING JUST A FEW CLOUDS AT MOST.               
WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COLUMN BUT THE SURFACE AIR              
MASS SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO MODIFY NOMINALLY... AND HIGH TEMPS                  
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY...  ABOUT 48-53. -GIH                       
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...                    
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD... CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE                
PERSISTENCE OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE             
PERIOD... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IN THE GFS AND            
ECMWF MODELS AND THEIR LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER BRING ABOUT            
MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. THE                
MORE CONSISTENT CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO BE AS GOOD A SOLUTION AS                
ANY... KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE WITH RIDGING HOLDING IN THE                  
WESTERN US AND PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA THROUGH NC INTO THE TROUGH                
BASE EVERY 2 DAYS OR SO. EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH              
SUCH A PATTERN... AND BARRING ANY PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS WAVES... THE            
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM                
EITHER A LITTLE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION ALOFT OR                  
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF HIGHER CLOUDS WITH A DEEP AND SPEEDY W TO             
NW FLOW UP THROUGH THE COLUMN. TEMPS ROUGHLY A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL            
EACH DAY. -GIH                                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
MID CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THIS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.             
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLY THIS EVENING.                 
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE FORM OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW            
HOURS EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY AT KINT AND KGSO. VISIBILITIES WILL                
DECREASE TO MVFR/IFR IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HOVER                  
AROUND 1 MILE FROM 06Z THROUGH SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO             
MVFR 00-04Z...THEN IFR OR LIFR 10-14Z WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT WEST TO            
EAST FRI MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.            
-RFG                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NCZ021>023-038-039 UNTIL 4 AM                       
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/LOCKLEAR/REU                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
245 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                 
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: QUESTION MARKS STILL REMAIN REGARDING THIS              
PRECIP EVENT. AS EXPECTED THE PARENT HIGH TO OUR NORTH HAS BROKEN               
FREE FROM THE MORE ARCTIC MIDWEST HIGH... ALTHOUGH OUR HIGH IS                  
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND THE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW            
DEGREES BELOW EARLIER FORECASTS... WHICH BRINGS ABOUT CONCERN WHEN              
ONE TRIES TO TAKE THE MODELS AT FACE VALUE. THE HIGH HAS SLID EAST              
TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE TRANSITORY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO THE            
1030S TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE... HOWEVER ITS STRENGTH IS STILL            
DECENT AND WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS AND LIKELY INSTIGATES AN                      
AGEOSTROPHIC SURFACE WIND ADJUSTMENT TO A MORE UNIFORM NNE                      
DIRECTION... THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AND               
COUPLED WITH A LITTLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE LOW LEVELS... JUST             
ENOUGH TO BUMP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST.              
THE 18Z GSO SOUNDING ARRIVED WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 5-9 METERS              
COLDER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. FINALLY... EVEN MODEL PROGS OF SURFACE             
WET BULB TEMPS ARE RUNNING COOLER BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE                 
LATEST RUNS... THE RUC INCLUDED. IN SUMMARY... GIVEN THE STRONGER               
DRIER HIGH AND COOLER OBSERVED THERMAL PROFILE ALONG WITH MODEL                 
PROGS TRENDING TO A COOLER SURFACE WET BULB... HAVE DECIDED TO                  
EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO GUILFORD... DAVIDSON... RANDOLPH... AND                  
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. A BIG ISSUE IS THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP... WHICH                
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS AND WHICH SHOULD KEEP ICE ACCRUAL            
LIGHT BEFORE THE MASSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES TOWARD                       
MIDNIGHT... AS 850 MB WINDS ACCELERATE UP TO 50-60 KTS. THIS STRONG             
WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE IN MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT              
EARLY ENOUGH SO THAT WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THERE... IT SHOULD BE              
ALL RAIN... THUS DID NOT EXPAND THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE VA BORDER               
COUNTIES OF THE NE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. IF ANY BIT OF ZR DOES                 
OCCUR... IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR... NORTH            
OF THE TRIANGLE. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE PAVEMENT TEMPS              
WHICH ARE REPORTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA...                
ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE VERY CAREFULLY DURING THIS                 
EVENING. ELEVATED SURFACES ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH COOLER HOWEVER.                
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT WET BULBS... AROUND 29             
TO 38. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT TREND OF PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE                  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING. PREFER THE COOLER MAV                   
GUIDANCE HIGHS WITH SKIES CLEARING AND A BLUSTERY NW WIND.                      
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WITH A PORTION OF THE SURFACE              
HIGH PARKED OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS DROPPING DOWN TO CALM...            
EXPECT CHILLY LOWS OF 19-27. LAST NIGHT'S LOWS BENEATH THIS AIR MASS            
WERE BELOW 0F SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE QUITE A FEW TEENS. A              
DAMPENING WAVE ZIPS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BUT HAS NO             
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND SHOULD BRING JUST A FEW CLOUDS AT MOST.               
WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COLUMN BUT THE SURFACE AIR              
MASS SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO MODIFY NOMINALLY... AND HIGH TEMPS                  
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY...  ABOUT 48-53. -GIH                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...                    
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD... CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE                
PERSISTENCE OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE             
PERIOD... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IN THE GFS AND            
ECMWF MODELS AND THEIR LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER BRING ABOUT            
MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. THE                
MORE CONSISTENT CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO BE AS GOOD A SOLUTION AS                
ANY... KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE WITH RIDGING HOLDING IN THE                  
WESTERN US AND PASSAGE OF VORT MAXIMA THROUGH NC INTO THE TROUGH                
BASE EVERY 2 DAYS OR SO. EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH              
SUCH A PATTERN... AND BARRING ANY PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS WAVES... THE            
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM                
EITHER A LITTLE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION ALOFT OR                  
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF HIGHER CLOUDS WITH A DEEP AND SPEEDY W TO             
NW FLOW UP THROUGH THE COLUMN. TEMPS ROUGHLY A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL            
EACH DAY. -GIH                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THIS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.             
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLY THIS EVENING.                 
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE FORM OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW            
HOURS EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY AT KINT AND KGSO. VISIBILITIES WILL                
DECREASE TO MVFR/IFR IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HOVER                  
AROUND 1 MILE FROM 06Z THROUGH SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO             
MVFR 00-04Z...THEN IFR OR LIFR 10-14Z WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT WEST TO            
EAST FRI MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.            
-RFG                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NCZ021>023-038-039 FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO            
4 AM FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...RFG                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1110 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
HAVE UPDATED TO CLEAR HEADLINES FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN FCST AREA.               
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 928 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW NEAR KMIE. WINDS ON THE BACK               
SIDE OF THE LOW ARE GUSTING TO 30 MPH. KILN RADAR SHOWING RETURNS               
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT PULLS OFF TO THE                  
EAST. DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION IS NOW KICKING IN AND IS A BIT                  
LIGHTER. WARMER AIR HAS MOVED UP INTO THE TRI-STATE AND SOUTH                   
CENTRAL OHIO OHIO AS MANY PLACES ARE AROUND TO ABOVE FREEZING.                  
HAVE THROWN OUT AN UPDATE ALREADY TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE               
PMH AREA. WILL THROW OUT ANOTHER UPDATE TO BRING AN END TO THE                  
PRECIP SOONER. LATEST RUC SHOWING PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY AS DRY                  
SLOT PUSHES EAST QUICKLY. 700 MB DEFORMATION IS MOVING THROUGH                  
CURRENTLY AND IS WELL AHEAD OF 700 MB TROF.                                     
WILL LEAVE ALL HEADLINES WHERE THEY ARE AS SW WINDS ON THE                      
BACKSIDE OF LOW WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA                
AND MY CAUSE LIMBS AND POWER LINES TO BREAK CLOSER TO THE OHIO                  
RIVER. NIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE HEADLINES DOWN.                                    
TIPTON                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 733 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                                              
AVIATION (0Z-0Z)...                                                             
TRIED TO TIME IN THE DRY SLOT THAT WILL TURN OFF SNOW OVER THE OHIO             
VALLEY FROM SW-NE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ENOUGH LLVL                    
MOISTURE AROUND AFTER 6Z...BUT UPSTREAM SITES HAVE SKC WHICH MAY                
SNEAK INTO CVG/LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN TONIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE                    
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE...BUT LACK OF UPWARD MOTION AND WAA FROM THE            
6-12Z TIME FRAME AT H8 WOULD SUGGEST THAT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE VERY             
LOW CEILINGS MAY WORK INTO THESE TAFS. KDAY AND KCMH APPEAR TO BE IN            
THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THIS CLEARING...ONLY MENTIONED IT LATE             
TOMORROW BUT FEEL THAT IT COULD BE LESS CLOUDY THAN MODELS ARE                  
FORECASTING...ESP WITH WAA SETTING UP ALL DAY LONG AT H8.                       
FRANKS                                                                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING DOUBLE BARREL LOW FROM NASHVILLE               
TO SOUTH CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS WITH SELY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING. KILN                
RADAR SHOWS RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY              
ACROSS SW FORECAST AREA.                                                        
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING NORTHERN PART OF                   
SURFACE LOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN LOW JUMPS TO THE                
EAST COAST. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BETWEEN                 
MODELS. RUC IS THE COOLEST WITH NAM AND GFS BEING A BIT WARMER. AS              
A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE DECREASED                 
SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-71 CORRIDOR PER SOME MIX OF SLEET AND                   
FZRA. HAVE TRIED TO STICK WITH 1300 DM (1000-850 MB THICKNESS) AS               
A DELINEATION OF SNOW/MIX OFF RUC. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST               
FIT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. REASON FOR 1300 DM WAS WITH STRONG                 
LIFT FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS FIGURE DIABATIC COOLING WILL HELP TO                  
KEEP SNOW GOING AT A WARMER THICKNESSES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                  
USING GARCIA METHOD HAVE GONE WITH A 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE NORTH OF                 
I-71. RIGHT NOW THINK MAX SNOWFALL WILL BE IN A STRIP OF 10 TO 50               
MILES NORTH OF I-71 WITH 5 TO 6 INCHES BEING THE AVERAGE                        
MEASUREMENT.                                                                    
GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW GOES FROM                  
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE. THIS WILL CREATE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND                 
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.                                        
REST OF SHORT TERM FORECAST IS BENIGN. MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE                
CONSIDERING THE SPREAD FROM MET AND FWC. WILL GO WITH MET FOR                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEAR SKIES.               
IT SHOULD TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE SW WIND TO MIX IN.                        
TIPTON                                                                          
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
RATHER COLD UNSETTLED WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR OH VLY THRU                    
EXTENDED.  SFC LO TRACKING THRU GRT LKS TO BEGIN ON SUN.  TRAILING              
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THRU FCST AREA DURING DAY SUN USHERING IN                 
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO REGION.  BNDRY LYR THICKNESSES                
REMAIN COLD ENUF THAT ALL PCPN WILL FALL IN FORM OF -SN.  AT THIS               
POINT...PCPN LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL LK              
EFFECT -SHSN CONTINUING FOR SUN NIGHT.  A SECONDARY MID LVL S/WV                
EMBEDDED IN MEAN LONGWAVE TROF WILL DROP INTO FCST AREA FOR                     
MON...AND FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHSN.               
HI PRES THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR TUES AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING                 
DVLPS AHEAD OF NEXT S/WV MOVING OUT OF NRN PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE                
WILL TRACK INTO LWR GRT LKS FOR MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE ADDL CHANCES FOR            
PRIMARILY -SN.  THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE                   
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.  HAVE TRENDED WITH CONSENSUS SOLN OF                   
BRINGING S/WV THRU REGION ON WED...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS NOW DELAYING                
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL ERLY THURS.  WILL GO WITH 30 POPS WED...BUT HAVE              
LINGERED LO CHC POPS INTO THURS TO ACCOUNT FOR 12Z GFS SOLN.                    
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND LOWER THAN               
MEX/MEN GUID.  TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION POTENTIAL SNOW COVER FROM              
EVENT TONIGHT AND LARGE UPR LVL TROF FOR EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS               
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/PCPN IN EXTENDED...COLDER TEMPS CERTAINLY             
APPEAR MORE PLAUSIBLE.  HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN U20S/L30S THRU BULK             
OF EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                             
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-             
     070>072 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                                                 
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OHZ064-065-073-074 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
928 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW NEAR KMIE. WINDS ON THE BACK               
SIDE OF THE LOW ARE GUSTING TO 30 MPH. KILN RADAR SHOWING RETURNS               
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT PULLS OFF TO THE                  
EAST. DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION IS NOW KICKING IN AND IS A BIT                  
LIGHTER. WARMER AIR HAS MOVED UP INTO THE TRI-STATE AND SOUTH                   
CENTRAL OHIO OHIO AS MANY PLACES ARE AROUND TO ABOVE FREEZING.                  
HAVE THROWN OUT AN UPDATE ALREADY TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE               
PMH AREA. WILL THROW OUT ANOTHER UPDATE TO BRING AN END TO THE                  
PRECIP SOONER. LATEST RUC SHOWING PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY AS DRY                  
SLOT PUSHES EAST QUICKLY. 700 MB DEFORMATION IS MOVING THROUGH                  
CURRENTLY AND IS WELL AHEAD OF 700 MB TROF.                                     
WILL LEAVE ALL HEADLINES WHERE THEY ARE AS SW WINDS ON THE                      
BACKSIDE OF LOW WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA                
AND MY CAUSE LIMBS AND POWER LINES TO BREAK CLOSER TO THE OHIO                  
RIVER. NIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE HEADLINES DOWN.                                    
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 733 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                                              
AVIATION (0Z-0Z)...                                                             
TRIED TO TIME IN THE DRY SLOT THAT WILL TURN OFF SNOW OVER THE OHIO             
VALLEY FROM SW-NE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ENOUGH LLVL                    
MOISTURE AROUND AFTER 6Z...BUT UPSTREAM SITES HAVE SKC WHICH MAY                
SNEAK INTO CVG/LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN TONIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE                    
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE...BUT LACK OF UPWARD MOTION AND WAA FROM THE            
6-12Z TIME FRAME AT H8 WOULD SUGGEST THAT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE VERY             
LOW CEILINGS MAY WORK INTO THESE TAFS. KDAY AND KCMH APPEAR TO BE IN            
THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THIS CLEARING...ONLY MENTIONED IT LATE             
TOMORROW BUT FEEL THAT IT COULD BE LESS CLOUDY THAN MODELS ARE                  
FORECASTING...ESP WITH WAA SETTING UP ALL DAY LONG AT H8.                       
FRANKS                                                                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING DOUBLE BARREL LOW FROM NASHVILLE               
TO SOUTH CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS WITH SELY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING. KILN                
RADAR SHOWS RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY              
ACROSS SW FORECAST AREA.                                                        
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING NORTHERN PART OF                   
SURFACE LOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN LOW JUMPS TO THE                
EAST COAST. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BETWEEN                 
MODELS. RUC IS THE COOLEST WITH NAM AND GFS BEING A BIT WARMER. AS              
A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE DECREASED                 
SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-71 CORRIDOR PER SOME MIX OF SLEET AND                   
FZRA. HAVE TRIED TO STICK WITH 1300 DM (1000-850 MB THICKNESS) AS               
A DELINEATION OF SNOW/MIX OFF RUC. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST               
FIT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. REASON FOR 1300 DM WAS WITH STRONG                 
LIFT FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS FIGURE DIABATIC COOLING WILL HELP TO                  
KEEP SNOW GOING AT A WARMER THICKNESSES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                  
USING GARCIA METHOD HAVE GONE WITH A 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE NORTH OF                 
I-71. RIGHT NOW THINK MAX SNOWFALL WILL BE IN A STRIP OF 10 TO 50               
MILES NORTH OF I-71 WITH 5 TO 6 INCHES BEING THE AVERAGE                        
MEASUREMENT.                                                                    
GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW GOES FROM                  
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE. THIS WILL CREATE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND                 
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.                                        
REST OF SHORT TERM FORECAST IS BENIGN. MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE                
CONSIDERING THE SPREAD FROM MET AND FWC. WILL GO WITH MET FOR                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEAR SKIES.               
IT SHOULD TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE SW WIND TO MIX IN.                        
TIPTON                                                                          
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
RATHER COLD UNSETTLED WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR OH VLY THRU                    
EXTENDED.  SFC LO TRACKING THRU GRT LKS TO BEGIN ON SUN.  TRAILING              
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THRU FCST AREA DURING DAY SUN USHERING IN                 
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO REGION.  BNDRY LYR THICKNESSES                
REMAIN COLD ENUF THAT ALL PCPN WILL FALL IN FORM OF -SN.  AT THIS               
POINT...PCPN LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL LK              
EFFECT -SHSN CONTINUING FOR SUN NIGHT.  A SECONDARY MID LVL S/WV                
EMBEDDED IN MEAN LONGWAVE TROF WILL DROP INTO FCST AREA FOR                     
MON...AND FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHSN.               
HI PRES THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR TUES AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING                 
DVLPS AHEAD OF NEXT S/WV MOVING OUT OF NRN PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE                
WILL TRACK INTO LWR GRT LKS FOR MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE ADDL CHANCES FOR            
PRIMARILY -SN.  THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE                   
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.  HAVE TRENDED WITH CONSENSUS SOLN OF                   
BRINGING S/WV THRU REGION ON WED...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS NOW DELAYING                
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL ERLY THURS.  WILL GO WITH 30 POPS WED...BUT HAVE              
LINGERED LO CHC POPS INTO THURS TO ACCOUNT FOR 12Z GFS SOLN.                    
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND LOWER THAN               
MEX/MEN GUID.  TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION POTENTIAL SNOW COVER FROM              
EVENT TONIGHT AND LARGE UPR LVL TROF FOR EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS               
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/PCPN IN EXTENDED...COLDER TEMPS CERTAINLY             
APPEAR MORE PLAUSIBLE.  HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN U20S/L30S THRU BULK             
OF EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                             
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-             
     070>072-077 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                                             
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OHZ064-065-073-074-078>080 UNTIL 6 AM             
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OHZ081-082-088 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.              
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KYZ089-090-094>099 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.             
  ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR KYZ091>093 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                       
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KYZ100 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                      
IN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080 UNTIL 6              
     AM FRIDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
733 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION (0Z-0Z)...                                                            
TRIED TO TIME IN THE DRY SLOT THAT WILL TURN OFF SNOW OVER THE OHIO             
VALLEY FROM SW-NE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ENOUGH LLVL                    
MOISTURE AROUND AFTER 6Z...BUT UPSTREAM SITES HAVE SKC WHICH MAY                
SNEAK INTO CVG/LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN TONIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE                    
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE...BUT LACK OF UPWARD MOTION AND WAA FROM THE            
6-12Z TIME FRAME AT H8 WOULD SUGGEST THAT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE VERY             
LOW CEILINGS MAY WORK INTO THESE TAFS. KDAY AND KCMH APPEAR TO BE IN            
THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THIS CLEARING...ONLY MENTIONED IT LATE             
TOMORROW BUT FEEL THAT IT COULD BE LESS CLOUDY THAN MODELS ARE                  
FORECASTING...ESP WITH WAA SETTING UP ALL DAY LONG AT H8.                       
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING DOUBLE BARREL LOW FROM NASHVILLE               
TO SOUTH CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS WITH SELY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING. KILN                
RADAR SHOWS RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY              
ACROSS SW FORECAST AREA.                                                        
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING NORTHERN PART OF                   
SURFACE LOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN LOW JUMPS TO THE                
EAST COAST. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BETWEEN                 
MODELS. RUC IS THE COOLEST WITH NAM AND GFS BEING A BIT WARMER. AS              
A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE DECREASED                 
SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-71 CORRIDOR PER SOME MIX OF SLEET AND                   
FZRA. HAVE TRIED TO STICK WITH 1300 DM (1000-850 MB THICKNESS) AS               
A DELINEATION OF SNOW/MIX OFF RUC. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST               
FIT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. REASON FOR 1300 DM WAS WITH STRONG                 
LIFT FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS FIGURE DIABATIC COOLING WILL HELP TO                  
KEEP SNOW GOING AT A WARMER THICKNESSES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                  
USING GARCIA METHOD HAVE GONE WITH A 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE NORTH OF                 
I-71. RIGHT NOW THINK MAX SNOWFALL WILL BE IN A STRIP OF 10 TO 50               
MILES NORTH OF I-71 WITH 5 TO 6 INCHES BEING THE AVERAGE                        
MEASUREMENT.                                                                    
GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW GOES FROM                  
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE. THIS WILL CREATE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND                 
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.                                        
REST OF SHORT TERM FORECAST IS BENIGN. MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE                
CONSIDERING THE SPREAD FROM MET AND FWC. WILL GO WITH MET FOR                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEAR SKIES.               
IT SHOULD TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE SW WIND TO MIX IN.                        
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
RATHER COLD UNSETTLED WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR OH VLY THRU                    
EXTENDED.  SFC LO TRACKING THRU GRT LKS TO BEGIN ON SUN.  TRAILING              
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THRU FCST AREA DURING DAY SUN USHERING IN                 
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO REGION.  BNDRY LYR THICKNESSES                
REMAIN COLD ENUF THAT ALL PCPN WILL FALL IN FORM OF -SN.  AT THIS               
POINT...PCPN LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL LK              
EFFECT -SHSN CONTINUING FOR SUN NIGHT.  A SECONDARY MID LVL S/WV                
EMBEDDED IN MEAN LONGWAVE TROF WILL DROP INTO FCST AREA FOR                     
MON...AND FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHSN.               
HI PRES THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR TUES AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING                 
DVLPS AHEAD OF NEXT S/WV MOVING OUT OF NRN PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE                
WILL TRACK INTO LWR GRT LKS FOR MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE ADDL CHANCES FOR            
PRIMARILY -SN.  THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE                   
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.  HAVE TRENDED WITH CONSENSUS SOLN OF                   
BRINGING S/WV THRU REGION ON WED...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS NOW DELAYING                
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL ERLY THURS.  WILL GO WITH 30 POPS WED...BUT HAVE              
LINGERED LO CHC POPS INTO THURS TO ACCOUNT FOR 12Z GFS SOLN.                    
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND LOWER THAN               
MEX/MEN GUID.  TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION POTENTIAL SNOW COVER FROM              
EVENT TONIGHT AND LARGE UPR LVL TROF FOR EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS               
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/PCPN IN EXTENDED...COLDER TEMPS CERTAINLY             
APPEAR MORE PLAUSIBLE.  HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN U20S/L30S THRU BULK             
OF EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                             
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-             
     070>072-077 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                                             
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OHZ064-065-073-074-078>080 UNTIL 6 AM             
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OHZ081-082-088 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.              
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KYZ089-090-094>096 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.             
  ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR KYZ091>093 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                       
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KYZ097>099 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                     
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KYZ100 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                      
IN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080 UNTIL 6              
     AM FRIDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
412 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING DOUBLE BARREL LOW FROM NASHVILLE               
TO SOUTH CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS WITH SELY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING. KILN                
RADAR SHOWS RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY              
ACROSS SW FORECAST AREA.                                                        
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING NORTHERN PART OF                   
SURFACE LOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN LOW JUMPS TO THE                
EAST COAST. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BETWEEN                 
MODELS. RUC IS THE COOLEST WITH NAM AND GFS BEING A BIT WARMER. AS              
A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE DECREASED                 
SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-71 CORRIDOR PER SOME MIX OF SLEET AND                   
FZRA. HAVE TRIED TO STICK WITH 1300 DM (1000-850 MB THICKNESS) AS               
A DELINEATION OF SNOW/MIX OFF RUC. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST               
FIT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. REASON FOR 1300 DM WAS WITH STRONG                 
LIFT FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS FIGURE DIABATIC COOLING WILL HELP TO                  
KEEP SNOW GOING AT A WARMER THICKNESSES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                  
USING GARCIA METHOD HAVE GONE WITH A 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE NORTH OF                 
I-71. RIGHT NOW THINK MAX SNOWFALL WILL BE IN A STRIP OF 10 TO 50               
MILES NORTH OF I-71 WITH 5 TO 6 INCHES BEING THE AVERAGE                        
MEASUREMENT.                                                                    
GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW GOES FROM                  
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE. THIS WILL CREATE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND                 
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.                                        
REST OF SHORT TERM FORECAST IS BENIGN. MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE                
CONSIDERING THE SPREAD FROM MET AND FWC. WILL GO WITH MET FOR                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEAR SKIES.               
IT SHOULD TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE SW WIND TO MIX IN.                        
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
RATHER COLD UNSETTLED WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR OH VLY THRU                    
EXTENDED.  SFC LO TRACKING THRU GRT LKS TO BEGIN ON SUN.  TRAILING              
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THRU FCST AREA DURING DAY SUN USHERING IN                 
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO REGION.  BNDRY LYR THICKNESSES                
REMAIN COLD ENUF THAT ALL PCPN WILL FALL IN FORM OF -SN.  AT THIS               
POINT...PCPN LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL LK              
EFFECT -SHSN CONTINUING FOR SUN NIGHT.  A SECONDARY MID LVL S/WV                
EMBEDDED IN MEAN LONGWAVE TROF WILL DROP INTO FCST AREA FOR                     
MON...AND FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHSN.               
HI PRES THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR TUES AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING                 
DVLPS AHEAD OF NEXT S/WV MOVING OUT OF NRN PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE                
WILL TRACK INTO LWR GRT LKS FOR MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE ADDL CHANCES FOR            
PRIMARILY -SN.  THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE                   
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.  HAVE TRENDED WITH CONSENSUS SOLN OF                   
BRINGING S/WV THRU REGION ON WED...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS NOW DELAYING                
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL ERLY THURS.  WILL GO WITH 30 POPS WED...BUT HAVE              
LINGERED LO CHC POPS INTO THURS TO ACCOUNT FOR 12Z GFS SOLN.                    
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND LOWER THAN               
MEX/MEN GUID.  TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION POTENTIAL SNOW COVER FROM              
EVENT TONIGHT AND LARGE UPR LVL TROF FOR EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS               
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/PCPN IN EXTENDED...COLDER TEMPS CERTAINLY             
APPEAR MORE PLAUSIBLE.  HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN U20S/L30S THRU BULK             
OF EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                             
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 111 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS CWA TONIGHT. MIXED PRECIPITATION IN                 
ADVANCE OF LOW MOVING INTO CVG...LUK BY 20Z. LOOKING AT                         
THICKNESS VALUES SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTH INTO ILN...CMH AND LCK BY               
00Z. SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AT DAY. HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD CAUSE PRECIP                
TO RETURN TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING WITH CAA TONIGHT. MOISTURE CUTS              
OFF AROUND 03Z TO 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT LINGERING LOW                   
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED -SN THROUGH 12Z. CIGS WILL RISE FROM 12Z TO 18Z.           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-             
     070>072-077 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                                             
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OHZ064-065-073-074-078>080 UNTIL 6 AM             
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OHZ081-082-088 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.              
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KYZ089-090-094>096 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.             
  ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR KYZ091>093 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                       
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KYZ097>099 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                     
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KYZ100 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                      
IN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080 UNTIL 6              
     AM FRIDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1025 AM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
NO MAJOR MID COURSE CORRECTIONS PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT A DELAY              
IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY...GIVEN THE TRENDS ON              
AREA RADARS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE RUC AND THE 12Z ETA SUGGESTS IT                
WILL BE CLOSER TO MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR STEADY PRECIP TO DEVELOP               
OVER THE SW...AND CLOSER TO EARLY EVENING OVER THE NE...BASED ON                
UPGLIDE FORECAST ON 295K SURFACE AND HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO                   
SATURATE LOW LEVELS. ESSENTIALLY WHAT THIS DOES IS FORCE ABOUT A 3              
HOUR DELAY IN THE TIMING...WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE UPDATED               
GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADJUSTED A BIT AS WELL             
TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT DELAY IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.                              
OTHERWISE...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH COLLECTION OF WARNINGS AND                
ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING...AND WILL REVISIT THE ISSUE DURING               
THE MID AFTERNOON.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
ISSUED AT 432 AM.                                                               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
LATEST SFC OBS SHOWING WEDGE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NE GA. NE FLOW HAS PICKED UP OVER THE             
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH PRESSURE RISES AND INCREASING DWPT                      
DEPRESSIONS. BY SUNRISE...MOST OF NC AND NRN PORTIONS OF SC SHOULD              
HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THICK CLOUD COVER AND BL CAA            
SHOULD SLOW WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND THE            
GFS DELAY PRECIP MOVE NORTH OVER THE FA UNTIL 18Z THIS AFTERNOON.               
SINCE PRECIP ONSET IS RATHER LATE IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS              
THE FA WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION. THE UNCERTAINTY               
SURROUNDING PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE ALONG WITH CRITICAL                      
TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN AN EXTREMELY COMPLICATED WINTER WEATHER                 
FORECAST.                                                                       
BY 0Z FRI...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW CATE COVERAGE OF QPF. BASED ON            
THE WEDGE SIGNATURE...WET BULB TEMPERATURES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF              
THE ESCARPMENT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. PARTIAL                 
THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH NOMOGRAM YIELDS A WINTRY MIX. WARM NOSE               
AT H8 APPEARS WARM ENOUGH TO RULE OUT SN AND LIMIT PL AFTER 18Z                 
TODAY. MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE FZRA AND FZDZ.                    
GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM FROM THE SOUTH AND                         
EAST...SQUEEZING FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MTNS VALLEYS AND                
EASTERN UPSLOPE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PROLONG PERIODS OF FREEZING              
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND MTN VALLEYS.                          
BASED ON THE TOPOGRAPHY ORIENTATION...PRECIP TIMING...AND EXPECTED              
TEMPERATURES...ANY DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ISOLATED                
ACROSS THE CWA. SINCE 1998...ISOLATED DAMAGING ICE EVENTS FAVOR                 
CERTAIN AREAS ACROSS THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY HENDERSON AND MITCHELL               
COUNTIES. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE COUNTIES ALONG WITH AVERY COUNTY              
WITH A ICE STORM WARNING FOR DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE AN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR                 
THE ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...FRENCH BROAD RIVER COUNTIES...ALONG                 
WITH YANCEY COUNTY. THE AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISORY CAN EXPECT LESS               
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.                                               
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND SUNRISE               
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF NC AND PORTIONS OF SC WILL FALL             
BELOW FREEZING. IF ANY MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE ROADS...ESPECIALLY               
OVERPASSES...THEN ICY AREAS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...EVEN WHERE WINTER             
WEATHER DID NOT OCCUR. IN ADDITION...WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP            
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE MTNS AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH FRI AM. THESE              
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY SUNRISE...WITH GUSTS                
OVER 40 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD EASILY BREAK POWER LINES AND TREE                
LIMBS COVERED IN ICE. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO                 
COVER THESE CONCERNS.                                                           
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                   
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CLIPPER APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN                    
APPALACHIANS FROM THE NW SUN AND MON. AS THE DISTURBANCE                        
APPROACHES...MOISTURE AND NW FLOW WILL INCREASE ALONG THE TN/NC                 
STATE LINE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE                  
WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NC MTNS. I INCREASED POPS AND DECREASED               
TEMPS TO BETTER LINE UP WITH THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR                 
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS.                                        
NED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...ICE STORM WARNING FOR NCZ033-050-065 FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6               
     AM FRIDAY.                                                                 
  ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NCZ034-048-049-053>055-063-064-066-             
     067 FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY.                                     
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...MOORE                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1015 AM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPMENT FROM               
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST RUC EXPECT THE               
RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CSRA...MID AFTERNOON              
IN THE CENTRAL PART AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH PART.                  
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE                  
NORTH PART SO EXPECT IT WILL BE ALL RAIN. SOME DRY LAYERS ALOFT                 
AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD HELP CAUSE A LITTLE SLEET IN THE NORTH            
PART AT THE START BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS TOO LOW TO FORECAST AT                 
THIS TIME.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 339 AM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST             
TODAY AND OFF THE NE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL                  
BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH AND MID                
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WEAK                 
SFC LOW WILL GET BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE                    
FLORIDA WEST COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP ALONG                
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE NE ON FRIDAY AS IT              
RAPIDLY DEEPENS THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SFC                   
HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA AS               
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT NOT COLD                 
ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND                
INTO THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS                   
KEEPING A DRY LAYER AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET DEEP ACROSS THE AREA                 
AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BECOME              
DEEP ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS. WE DO NOT EXPECT                 
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN UNTIL AFTER 21Z THIS                     
AFTERNOON. A FEW PELLETS OF SLEET MY MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR                
MASS OVER NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY BY MIDDAY TODAY, BUT DO NOT                 
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OR ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.                                 
THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A LOW               
LEVEL JET AROUND 50 TO 60 KTS. WARM ATLANTIC AIR WILL LIFT OVER                 
THE COOL POOL OF AIR OVER THE MIDLANDS AND WILL CREATE A VERY                   
WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST                   
AREA. HAVE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. COULD                
SEE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA OF ONE TO TWO INCHES                 
FOR THE EVENT. RAIN WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY 12Z FRIDAY AND STRONG             
UPPER JET WILL DRY THINGS OUT VERY QUICKLY AS LOW EXITS FROM THE                
AREA.                                                                           
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY                  
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND ZONAL FLOW                
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD               
WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIP EXPECTED.                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...ALONG            
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY NORTHEAST FRIDAY.                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY                
AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SELY LOW LEVEL JET...30KTS PLUS...BECOMES              
SLY WITH SFC WINDS NELY AROUND 10 KTS. EXPECTING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN          
THIS MORNING BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING                  
OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AROUND 0000Z AS                 
RAINFALL BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
815 PM MST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF/WARM FRONT OVER                   
WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN                  
WYOMING. 00Z RUC/NAM SHOWS BEST LIFT TO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS            
EVENING...BUT VERY LITTLE SHOWING UP ON THE AREA RADARS. MID LEVEL              
CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHEAST                   
MONTANA...WITH AREA OF STRATUS MOVING SOUTH. WILL TRIM BACK POPS FOR            
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN                    
FORECAST AREA NEAR FORECAST LOWS. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY               
COMPONENT AND CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND                   
SLIGHTLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF                
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SNOW                
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING               
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
931 AM CST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS IN THE                 
NORTHEAST THROUGH 11 AM...WITH SOME AREAS COMING IN WITH                        
VISIBILITIES AT 1/4 MI. UPDATED GRIDS FOR LINGERING FOG...AND FOR               
HIGHS. WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME               
MIXING FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED...BELIEVE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO             
THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE AFTER COLD LOWS IN SOME SPOTS. NEW NAM12 AND             
RUC HAVE COME COOLER FOR TODAY...BUT SEEM TOO COLD. LOWERED HIGHS A             
FEW DEGREES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KNUTSVIG                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
856 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN HOLDING NEARLY                  
STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES               
WARMER THAN FORECAST. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO HIGH...MID 30S TO LOWER                
40S. THUS THE WET BULB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS WELL OUT OF OUR                  
AREA...ELIMINATING ANY POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. TEMPS WILL NOT             
DROP UNTIL A COLD FRONT NOW NEAR NASHVILLE PASSES THROUGH. BY THIS              
TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED. RUC SHOWS VERY DRY              
AIR MOVING IN FROM AROUND 850 MB AND HIGHER IN THE PLATEAU AROUND               
06Z AND IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 09Z. THE KMRX VWP DOES SHOW             
THAT WINDS ARE NOW BACKING WITH HEIGHT...INDICATING THAT COLD                   
ADVECTION HAS BEGUN ALOFT...AND ERODING THE WARM NOSE ALOFT. BUT                
GIVEN WARM TEMPS SURFACE COOLING WILL BE SLOW UNTIL THE FROPA.                  
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED FOR THE TN PLATEAU                  
COUNTIES AND LEE...SCOTT...AND WISE COUNTIES IN VA. HIGHER                      
ELEVATIONS IN SW VA AND NE TN STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME              
ACCUMULATION...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THERE. SPS WILL BE               
UPDATED TO SHIFT EMPHASIS TO BLACK ICE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE                   
MORNING...AND MENTION A POSSIBLE DUSTING OF SNOW FROM KNOXVILLE                 
NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                   
     CHEROKEE...AND CLAY.                                                       
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT            
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER                 
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...                   
     SOUTHEAST MONROE...AND UNICOI.                                             
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: JOHNSON...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...AND                 
     UNICOI.                                                                    
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: RUSSELL...AND WASHINGTON.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DGS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
328 PM CST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.                               
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS IL/S WI               
EARLY TONIGHT.                                                                  
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVENT. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP              
TO 2 G/KG AT 850 MB. AN AVERAGE RATIO OF 13 TO 1 IS EXPECTED.                   
HPC...COBB TECHNIQUE INDICATE BETWEEN 2 AND 4.5 INCHES OF                       
ACCUMULATION...WITH THE 4.5 INCH TOTALS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST                    
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOWS UPPER LOW              
OVER S IA WITH SOME INDICATIONS IT MAY TRACK A BIT FARTHER N.                   
MODERATE UPPER DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE CAUSING RADAR RETURNS TO BLOSSOM            
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A 3 TO 5 INCH TOTAL IN THE FAR                     
SOUTHEAST WITH A SNOW ADVISORY.                                                 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM UPPER LOW MAY STILL GENERATE LIGHT SNOW               
FLURRIES UNTIL AROUND 06 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.                                  
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE BUILDING EARLY FRIDAY THEN NEXT            
SHORTWAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.  NEXT UPSTREAM TROF TO               
AFFECT S WI SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.                               
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF  SUNDAY AND             
MONDAY. TIMING OF WHAT LITTLE DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO BE AVAILABLE             
IS UNCERTAIN. MOISTURE IS ALSO LIMITED. WILL MENTION ONLY SMALL POPS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.                                    
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER                    
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ070-WIZ071-                     
WIZ072.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HENTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
145 PM CST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS IL/S WI              
EARLY TONIGHT.                                                                  
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVENT. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP              
TO 2 G/KG AT 850 MB. AN AVERAGE RATIO OF 13 TO 1 IS EXPECTED.                   
HPC...COBB TECHNIQUE INDICATE BETWEEN 2 AND 4.5 INCHES OF                       
ACCUMULATION...WITH THE 4.5 INCH TOTALS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST                    
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOWS UPPER LOW              
OVER S IA WITH SOME INDICATIONS IT MAY TRACK A BIT FARTHER N.                   
MODERATE UPPER DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE CAUSING RADAR RETURNS TO BLOSSOM            
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN WE MAY NEED TO GO WITH A 3 TO 5 INCH               
TOTAL IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A SNOW ADVISORY.  WILL WAIT FOR 18Z             
NAM FOR A FINAL DECISION.  EARLIER UPDATE WILL WORK WELL FOR NOW.               
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM UPPER LOW MAY STILL GENERATE LIGHT SNOW               
FLURRIES UNTIL AROUND 06 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.                                  
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE BUILDING EARLY FRIDAY THEN NEXT            
SHORTWAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.  NEXT UPSTREAM TROF TO               
AFFECT S WI SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.                               
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF  SUNDAY AND             
MONDAY. TIMING OF WHAT LITTLE DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO BE AVAILABLE             
IS UNCERTAIN. MOISTURE IS ALSO LIMITED. WILL MENTION ONLY SMALL POPS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.                                    
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER                    
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HENTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
729 AM CST THU DEC 8 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC AND NAM HAD CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF              
50MB OR LESS FURTHER NORTHWARD TODAY. THUS...TRENDED SNOW A BIT                 
FURTHER NORTH THAN IN THE CURRENT DATA BASE. ZONES WERE UPDATED TO              
REFLECT THIS THINKING AT 1322Z. OTHERWISE...OVERALL FORECAST                    
SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AND AMOUNTS APPEARS REASONABLE.               
&&                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                            
MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH             
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH                
SATURDAY ARE ALSO A CONCERN.                                                    
AT 2 AM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                    
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WI. MEANWHILE...A              
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM EASTERN                    
NEBRASKA. RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW              
FALLING IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM             
KFSD ND-KCAV AND KCID IA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SNOW AREA WAS                
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR TOWARD SOUTHERN PORTIONS             
OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                           
00Z 08DEC05 MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWS GFS QPF PROG WITH THE EDGE AT            
06Z WHEN COMPARED AGAINST REAL-TIME RADAR/SURFACE OBS. NAM IS A BIT             
DRY GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING SIGNALS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW              
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS WITH                    
HANDLING OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                    
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHURN EASTWARD ACROSS IA TODAY AND                   
NORTHERN IL BY THIS EVENING. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST             
AREA ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT (AS EVIDENCED              
ON THE 275K SURFACE) AND STRONG/DEEP LAYERED QG-CONVERGENCE. RAPID              
SATURATION OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING IN            
STRONG FORCING. DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH SOUTH SET UP A FAIRLY                
SHARP N TO S PRECIPITATION VS. NO PRECIPITATION GRADIENT. SNOW                  
FALLING ACROSS IA HAD A 1:17 LIQUID-SNOW RATIO. FURTHER NORTH                   
ACROSS OUR AREA IT WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 1:20. BASED ON ALL                     
THIS...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP AND TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. KEPT             
LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS                  
DEFORMATION BAND SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO GET OUT OF HERE. WHEN ALL IS               
SAID AND DONE...LOOKS LIKE 2-2.5 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS               
PORTIONS OF GRANT COUNTY IN WI...AND CLAYTON/FAYETTE COUNTIES IN                
NORTHEAST IA....WITH RAPIDLY TAPERING AMOUNTS NORTH OF THIS. SNOW               
CHANCES SHOULD BE DONE BY 9PM AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST INTO                  
INDIANA.                                                                        
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRONG SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE               
AREA FROM CANADIAN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG                    
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA INDICATED ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT              
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH MN               
INTO NORTHWEST WI. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA...TEMPERATURES                
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TRIED TO REFLECT            
THIS IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                  
CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY SHOULD GENERATE               
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.                                                         
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
ECMWF/GFS/DGEX ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN            
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN               
THE FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES GOING. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WELL. NO              
CHANGES MADE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DAS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1225 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN THE INTENSITY OF            
SNOW ACRS NRN INDIANA...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST                  
ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS UNTIL ASSOCIATED 700 MB CLOSED LOW/DEFORMATION             
AXIS PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT             
BETWEEN SFC LOW OVER N CNTRL OHIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE              
ERN PLAINS WAS CREATING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACRS                   
CNTRL/SRN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.  SOME OF THESE GUSTS ARE                  
EXPECTED AT KFWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AND THESE GUSTS               
WILL HELP REDUCE VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW.                                         
FROM 12Z-18Z...MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE TAF SITES AS              
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO PULL AWAY...BEING SUPPLEMENTED BY              
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS               
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN.                  
THEREAFTER...850 MB TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE              
REGION TO SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT.                                             
TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE CLEARING CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE AFTN             
AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VLY.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPGRADE REMAINDER OF CWA TO HEAVY SNOW WARNING WITH 5-8                         
INCHES...MAYBE SPOT 9 INCHES IN SE CWA AS NNE-SSW MESOBANDING                   
INDICATED KIND 88-D. 3H JETLET SAMPLED AT KILN/160 KT. FEATURE                  
UNDERESTIMATED BY NAM12 AND RUC BY AROUND 30KTS. DEEP LAYER ASCENT              
ENHANCED IN REGION WHERE FAVORABLE 2-3 G/KG ON I285 SURFACE THROUGH             
FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 30-35 DBZ WITH BANDS LIFTING INTO SE FA               
WILL ADD TO ALREADY GENERAL 4-6 INCHES. 7H LOW NOW INTO NORTH                   
CENTRAL IL NEAR KPNT HAVE EXTENDED CAT SNOW POPS A FEW MORE HOURS               
WITH RAPID TAPER BY DAYBREAK.                                                   
UPDATE... (810 PM)                                                              
NORTHERN THIRD UPGRADED TO HEAVY SNOW WARNING. AMOUNTS AT LEAST IN              
NORTHWEST PART OF CWA IN 3-5 INCH RANGE ALREADY AND SNWFL RATES OF              
1.0-2.0 INCHES PER HOUR TO CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. BAND PIVOT POINT IN            
EXTREME NW INDIANA ATTM HEIGHTENING AMOUNTS THERE. TROWAL/I285 ISENT            
LIFT WITH 2-3G/KG TAP GENERATING MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS DESPITE                
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THOUGH BEGINNING TO DEEPEN MORE ACROSS                  
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH GREATER THAN 4MB/3HR FALLS INTO SOUTHERN CWA.              
DEFORMATION ZONE/7H TRACK SHOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS THE HIGHEST                
TOTALS AND HAVE UPPED TOTALS TO 6-9 WITH 4-7 IN REMAINDER OF                    
ADVISORY AREA.                                                                  
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...                                                           
LATEST KIWX RADAR...AND RECENT OBSERVER REPORTS CONFIRM...LEADING               
EDGE OF SNOW NOW MOVING INTO SW CWA. MAIN FCST PROBLEM WAS IF ANY               
UPGRADE TO ADVISORY NEEDED. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW                  
MOVING ALONG IA/MO BORDER WITH PROFILER DATA INDICATING 130KT UPPER             
JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN MO. MODELS IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS            
COME IN TO PLACE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...MAIN LIMITING FACTOR               
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTING DURATION OF             
SNOW EVENT. SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING CWA ASSOCIATED WITH                 
850MB WAA. BY 00Z...700MB LOW EXPECTING TO BE ENTERING WEST CENTRAL             
ILLINOIS PLACING OUR AREA IN FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE FOR ANOTHER             
ROUND OF SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BOTH GFS             
AND NAM INDICATING AREAS OF K INDEX AROUND 15 THIS EVENING SO BRIEF             
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. CROSS SECTIONS OVER NORTHERN CWA                
ALSO INDICATING GOOD PLACEMENT OF OMEGA IN RELATION TO FAVORABLE                
TEMP RANGE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. HOWEVER...OVERALL PATTERN TO              
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ALREADY DROPPING DOWN            
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS SO RESULT SHOULD BE A STRONG BUT SHORT LIVED               
SNOW EVENT...SO CURRENT FCST OF GENERALLY 4-7 NORTH 3-6 INCHES                  
SOUTHEAST SEEMS REASONABLE SO WILL OPT TO CONTINUE ADVISORY AND HOLD            
OFF ON UPGRADE TO WARNING. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK RIGHT OVER               
THE CWA BY 06Z...THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT BEST DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH            
AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS            
SYSTEM EXITS WITH 925MB LOW OVER SE LAKE MICHIGAN AT 06Z. QUICK                 
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT AS DECENT NORTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS WITH               
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 4KFT AND MODEST DELTA T AROUND 15. SHOULD              
BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS FLOW BECOMES WEST/SOUTHWEST BY 18Z...SO               
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IN THE LAKE               
EFFECT AREA.                                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE              
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON THE LARGE SCALE...SEVERAL              
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR UPSTREAM...RIDING OVER            
TOP OF WESTERN RIDGE. FIRST SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT LONG TERM PERIODS              
IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND WYOMING. 12Z MODELS             
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING THIS WAVE INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION            
BY SATURDAY. DESPITE VIGOROUS LOOK IN THE 500MB HEIGHT AND VORT                 
FIELDS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS LACKING AND                   
CURRENT TRACK WOULD PLACE IT TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON               
OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT AS IT              
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WAVE IS                  
CURRENTLY TOPPING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FIRST               
WAVE...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR AND HELPING CARVE OUT               
DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NUMEROUS WEAKER SHORT WAVES WILL THEN                
MOVE THROUGH THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE             
FOR OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. UNCERTAINTY THEN LIES IN THE DAY 6                 
THROUGH 8 TIME FRAME AS MODELS HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING WESTERN RIDGE            
AND CUTOFF LOW THAT UNDERCUTS IT AND THE PHASING OF ANOTHER SHORT               
WAVE COMING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. MODELS TEND TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE              
WITH NORTHERN STREAM IN SUCH CASES...AS THEY WERE LAST WEEK WITH                
TODAYS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. TEND TO FAVOR SOMETHING CLOSER TO 12Z GFS             
WHICH DIGS SHORT WAVE ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOW LIFTING OUT OF              
SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A STRONGER AND SLOWER                           
SOLUTION. HAVE OPTED FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE DAY 7 TIME FRAME               
BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH OVERALL PATTERN BY THIS TIME.                         
IN THE DETAILS...HAVE KEPT SATURDAY DRY WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE            
DUE TO ITS POSITION WELL SOUTH OF US AND LACKING MOISTURE. LIGHT                
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY ARCTIC FRONT SAT NIGHT SUNDAY            
AS 100+ 300 MB JET DIVES SOUTHEAST AND PUTS THE AREA IN LEFT FRONT              
REGION. POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND                
DELTA T VALUES IN UPPER TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH SOME ACCUMS IN FAVORED            
LAKE EFFECT AREAS AND HIGH CHANCE POPS. THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND            
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY            
NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLE RIDGING MOVES IN TUE. KEPT TUE AND WED DRY FOR            
NOW AS RIDING TRIES TO HOLD AHEAD OF DIGGING UPSTREAM WAVE. ADDED               
POPS TO DAY 7 FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS UPSTREAM WAVE MOVING IN.              
LOWERED TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO TUE WITH             
LARGE SCALE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER AREA. ANY CLEARING DURING                     
NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL LEAD TO MORE SINGLE DIGIT OR COLDER LOWS GIVEN             
EXPECTED SNOW COVER. TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN RIGHT NOW WITH THE              
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND TIMING OF ANY CLEARING AND DECOUPLING. BEST               
CHANCE MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES WHEN MODELS CLEAR OUT RH               
MOST LEVELS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE.                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ017-INZ018.                
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR INZ003-            
     INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007-INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-INZ014-                   
     INZ016.                                                                    
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ013-INZ015-                
     INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-                   
     INZ033-INZ034.                                                             
MI...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-                
     MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.                                                      
OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ004-OHZ005-                
     OHZ015-OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.                                               
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ001-OHZ002.                
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                              
SHORT TERM/UPDATE...MURPHY                                                      
LONG TERM....14                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
225 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                  
...VERY COLD OVER NEXT 24 HOURS...                                              
IN THE WAKE OF POTENT UPPER TROF BARRELING EASTWARD OVER IN/OH...               
WESTERLIES HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVER THE CWA...G25-30KTS COMMON DURING               
THE PAST FEW HOURS. WIND CHILLS INTO SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO                 
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY                
THIS MORNING PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.            
THERE WERE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES OVER INDIANA EARLIER...THOUGH               
WITH WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE FOR SRN              
INDIANA.                                                                        
LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS OF 06 UTC...SOME BREAKS             
ALONG/WEST OF I-65. EMBEDDED WITHIN...A RATHER PERSISTENT BAND OF               
-SHSN/FLURRIES HAS DEVELOPED FROM BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY OVER INTO THE             
FTK/LOU/FFT AREAS...PRODUCING SOME TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. BUFKIT                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES INTO THE -10              
TO -15C LEVEL PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE              
TO MENTION SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THERE HAVE BEEN                  
REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS DUE TO REFREEZE FROM YESTERDAYS PCPN...                    
SOMETHING THAT MORNING COMMUTERS WILL HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND...                   
ESPECIALLY IN PARKING LOTS AND UNTREATED SURFACES.                              
CLOUD FCST WILL BE CHALLENGING. RUC/NAM 925MB RH FIELDS DEPICT THE              
CURRENT CLOUD DISTRIBUTION WELL...AND INDICATE CLEARING FROM SW-NE              
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHALLOW            
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE. THOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SWITCHING              
FROM W TO N/NW TODAY...THAT MAY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF CLEARING                
SUCH THAT PARTS OF SE IND INTO LEX/BLUEGRASS COUNTIES MAY STAY                  
CLOUDY LONGER.                                                                  
TEMPERATURES ARE ANOTHER CONCERN. WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -10C PER RUC            
ANALYSIS AND SDF ACARS SOUNDINGS...A VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE                  
ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER. LEANED TOWARD RAW            
NAM/MOS NUMBERS. SNOWCOVER OVER SRN IND WILL HAVE A DOWNWARD                    
INFLUENCE ON TEMPS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS             
AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. WON'T              
GO AS COLD AS RAW NAM DATA TONIGHT...BUT SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGIT                
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SRN IND...WITH LOW/MIDDLE TEENS ELSEWHERE IN               
THE CWA. CS                                                                     
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-THURSDAY)...                                               
.SATURDAY...                                                                    
EXPECT A TRANQUIL DAY AS LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN                  
SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL PROVIDE              
SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...ALBEIT WITH STILL CHILLY                         
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IN               
THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH                 
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.                                          
.SUNDAY...                                                                      
AS A REX BLOCK SHARPENS ACROSS THE WEST COAST...TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY             
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS JET STREAM ENERGY DROPS SOUTHWARD               
ACROSS CENTRAL US. SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE                  
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD SURGE                
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY               
AND CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY AND SUNDAY              
NIGHT. CHANCES OF SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS AN ELEVATED FRONT EXPECTED TO                  
DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.                                                        
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                    
THIS PERIOD MAY BE THE START OF AN UPPER AIR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS             
REX BLOCK ACROSS WEST COAST BREAKS DOWN DUE TO WESTERLIES                       
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO                      
VALLEY...RUNNING AROUND 13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF DEC            
SO FAR...MAY MODERATE AS PERSISTENT COLD TROUGH EASES AND MOVES EAST            
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN MOVING EAST ACROSS               
THE PLAINS...THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS STORM FREE THIS PERIOD.                
WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK               
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS UPPER OHIO VALLEY. JSD                                 
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
500 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
MESO DISCUSSION AND 06Z MODEL UPDATE...                                         
SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO NYC AND JUST STARTED IN HARTFORD AS WELL AS               
BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS. KBOX RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF SNOW             
FROM MANCHESTER TO CAPE ANN AND OFFSHORE WHICH FOR MOST PART IS                 
ALOFT...BUT IT IS GIVING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN NH. YOU CAN           
SEE THE DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS VERY WELL ON KBOX RADAR TOO...                  
COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING             
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WE EXPECT SNOW TO REACH WORCESTER AND                  
PROVIDENCE BY 7 AM AND BOSTON AROUND 8 AM OR SO.                                
MODELS ARE TRENDING CLOSER WITH EACH RUN. 06Z NAM IS NOW A BIT                  
FARTHER S WITH ITS LOW TRACK...NOW FROM MONTAUK POINT TO CAPE COD               
BAY WITH GFS HOLDING FIRM ON ITS TRACK S OF NANTUCKET. OTHER                    
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 06Z RUC AND 06Z 10KM BOX ETA PREFER A                
TRACK CLOSER TO NAM...BUT THIS JUST SEEMS A BIT TOO FAR N TO US. ONE            
THING WE NOTICED IS NAM IS STILL A BIT SLOWER...AND BRINGS BEST LIFT            
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...SO              
WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY FOR              
HARTFORD TO WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE CORRIDOR WHERE SNOWFLAKE                     
PRODUCTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.                                                   
WE HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS STRONG LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE            
ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN BOSTON AREA. IT            
STILL APPEARS WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN IN PROVIDENCE AND SE             
MA. BOSTON MAY VERY WELL END UP SEEING MORE OF A MIX AS OPPOSED TO A            
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD NAM VERIFY...BUT A PROLONGED SE WIND USUALLY              
KILLS THE SNOWFLAKES IN BOSTON.                                                 
ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE SO FAR IS WHAT'S BEEN GOING ON               
UPSTREAM ACROSS MID ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FROM WASHINGTON DC INTO               
PA WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES AND             
EVEN THUNDER! THIS SHOULD ALL COME OUR WAY LATER THIS MORNING AND               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
JWD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 335 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
WE ARE KEEPING ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR SNOW TODAY...           
BUT WILL TRIM AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD             
SERVE AS OUR TRANSITION ZONE. TOTALS ACROSS INTERIOR LOOK GOOD. WE              
WILL ALSO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS TO           
A HIGH WIND WARNING.                                                            
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND                
EASTERN PA...NOTE HOW QUICKLY VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/2SM OR LESS AS             
SNOW BEGINS! ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO                    
OVERCOME...IT WON'T TAKE LONG TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SUCH A                
POTENT SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP. WE EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN CT VALLEY             
AROUND SUNRISE (PROBABLY 6 AM) AND QUICKLY HEAD TO E MA COAST DURING            
MORNING RUSH HOUR (8-9 AM)...PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.                         
00Z NAM STILL FARTHEST N OF MODELS THIS MORNING...BUT 00Z GFS                   
CONTINUES ITS TREND OF EDGING FARTHER N WITH EACH RUN...NOW TAKING              
SECONDARY LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET. IT AGREES WELL WITH ITS 00Z                 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MATCHES WELL WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE ALSO LOOKED            
AT 00Z NGM...AND IT ACTUALLY PRESENTS A DECENT SOLUTION. ITS SURFACE            
LOW IS SIMILAR TO GFS...BUT WE LIKE ITS 24HR QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00"               
WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN NAM/GFS. OFTEN WE LIKE TO SEE NGM ON BOARD             
WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF BEFORE JUMPING ON A BIG EVENT...AND SINCE WE               
HAVE HAD DOUBTS AS TO EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS SHOWN ON PAST RUNS OF               
NAM/GFS THIS LEADS MORE CREDENCE TO FACT THAT THOSE TWO MODELS ARE              
PROBABLY OVERDOING IT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS             
SYSTEM AS UPPER LOW DOES NOT CUTOFF UNTIL IT PASSES CAPE COD.                   
SO IF WE ADJUST OUR TRACK TO JUST INSIDE 40/70 BENCHMARK...IT WOULD             
PLACE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR FROM NORTHERN CT INTO              
CENTRAL/INTERIOR NE MA AND SW NH. CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW                     
TREMENDOUS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION WITH EXCELLENT                
POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION/MESOSCALE BANDING. THIS IS ALSO              
ZONE OF MAXIMUM SNOW GROWTH. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO MAKING THIS A              
BLOCKBUSTER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE SPEED OF SYSTEM...SO ALTHOUGH IT'S            
GOING TO SNOW HARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY                
AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2" PER HOUR...IT SHOULD NOT LAST               
LONG ENOUGH TO GIVE WIDESPREAD TOTALS OVER 10". WE'LL PROBABLY GET              
SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING REPORTS WITH THIS AS WELL.                               
CLOSER TO COAST...WE NEED TO DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WE HAVE            
NO BLOCKING HIGH TO NORTH TO KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED IN AT LOW LEVELS.             
WINDS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO TURN SE LATER THIS                               
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE MODELS SHOW 1000 MB AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS               
TURNING W...NOT A GOOD SIGN TO KEEP IT COLD. GFS CROSS SECTIONS MAY             
BE A LITTLE TOO WARM...INDICATING A CHANGE TO RAIN AS FAR INLAND AS             
I-495 IN EASTERN MA AND INTO NW RI. WE THINK IT IS MORE REALISTIC               
THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE (IE RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL END UP NEAR I-95               
BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE AND PROBABLY AS FAR N AS CAPE ANN. A              
COMPLETE CHANGE TO RAIN SEEMS MOST LIKELY WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE              
COAST FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...THEN ACROSS SE MA NEAR TAUNTON AND              
INTO PROVIDENCE.                                                                
THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL NUDGE STORM TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE             
LOCATIONS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SE MIDDLESEX AND W NORFOLK COUNTIES IN A           
LOW-END WINTER STORM WARNING AND THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...AS WE            
THINK PLACES ALONG ROUTE 128 FROM WOBURN AND BELMONT TO NEWTON AND              
DEDHAM WILL SEE THE 4-5" AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND SUCH AS           
LEXINGTON AND ESPECIALLY MEDWAY AND BELLINGHAM WILL SEE THE 6-8"                
TOTALS. IN THOSE ZONES WHERE WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WE             
WILL GENERALLY HAVE 2-4" TOTALS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN COASTAL            
ESSEX COUNTY MA (ZONE 7)...WHERE WE EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN TOTALS...            
FROM 2" ON COASTLINE TO AS MUCH AS 7-8" NEAR NH BORDER. BUT AVERAGE             
IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING THERE.                                  
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO MERRIMACK VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON           
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE BACK ACROSS CT VALLEY. STRONGEST LIFT             
IS HEADING QUICKLY FOR COAST BY MID AFTERNOON...SO WE THINK MANY                
LOCATIONS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 3 OR 4 PM EXCEPT FOR CAPE            
COD AND ISLANDS.                                                                
MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES WIND. SURFACE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF               
CAPE COD WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGHOUT ALL OF                 
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IF WE TAKE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR                
HYANNIS AND NANTUCKET AT FACE VALUE IT SHOWS A STRONG POTENTIAL OF              
50-60KT GUSTS AS THIS DEEPENING OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. WE THINK THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WE HAVE ENOUGH                
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WIND ADVISORY              
WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR S COAST...EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON 40KT              
GUSTS THERE IS LESS. ADVISORIES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR E MA             
COASTLINE BUT RIGHT NOW WE THINK WE WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA                 
THERE.                                                                          
CLEARING SHOULD WORK IN RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW             
RAPID DRYING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH               
GRADUALLY UNTIL SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE.                                  
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
OVERALL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST                  
THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION SATURDAY IN WAKE OF                     
DEPARTING STORM.  SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS                
BACK AS CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD             
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA            
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. COLD AIR            
ADVECTION ACROSS REGION COULD YIELD SHOWERS OVER OUTER WATERS                   
CLIPPING CAPE AND ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST               
FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND RESULTING N TO NW WINDS OVER CAPE COULD               
YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING                  
THROUGH THE COLUMN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...THEN REGION               
AWAITS NEXT POTENTIAL NOREASTER FOR FRIDAY.                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR FOR THE MOMENT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR NANTUCKET WHICH              
WILL SPREAD ONTO S COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL                    
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING TO IFR AS SNOW ARRIVES (THEN TO LIFR           
WITHIN 2 HOURS OF THAT)...CURRENTLY TIMED INTO CT VALLEY TOWARD                 
SUNRISE AND BEFORE MID MORNING ALONG E MA COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT           
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THEN WE                
EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PULLS              
OFF THE COAST.                                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
WE WILL EXPAND STORM WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE CAPE COD BAY            
AND NANTUCKET SOUND...AND MAINTAIN GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE AS WINDS             
INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION             
AS TO HOW FAST THE LOW WILL DEEPEN...IMPACTING WIND GUST POTENTIAL...           
BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY IT WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAPE COD RATHER             
THAN FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS              
SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER AWAY.                                                      
FOLLOWED WNA WAVE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER GIVEN PREVAILING WEST TO                   
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASED SEAS IN BUZZARDS                
BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR              
OUTER WATERS AND ALONG SOUTH COAST...ALL DUE TO WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS            
AND ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                      
CLIMATE...                                                                      
FYI...RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...                  
KBOS... 4.6 INCHES IN 1978                                                      
KPVD... 3.0 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
KORH... 8.0 INCHES IN 1903                                                      
KBDL... 4.2 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                       
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.               
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAZ005-006-013-014-026 UNTIL 5 PM                 
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-015>019 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.              
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ020-021 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY.            
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAZ022>024 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM                  
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ012-015 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                     
RI...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR RIZ001 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RIZ002>005 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                  
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ006>008 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY.            
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM               
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
  ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1             
     AM SATURDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE -SN CHANCES WITH THE SAT CLIPPER AND LES                 
POTENTIAL IN ITS WAKE.                                                          
WV IMAGERY...AND RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATED CONTINUATION              
OF PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RDG OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROFFING OVER               
THE EAST LEAVING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES.              
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WHICH BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWS FROM            
KS/MO INTO THE SRN GRT LAKES HAD MOVED TO NW OHIO. UPSTREAM...                  
COMBINATION OF 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A WEAK SHRTWV FROM  WRN                
ONTARIO INTO ND SUPPORTED LITTLE MORE THAN AREAS OF MID CLOUDS AND A            
FEW FLURRIES. HEALTHY LOOKING SHRTWV WHICH WILL BE FOCUS FOR SAT WAS            
JUST MOVING INTO BC. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER LK ERIE             
WHILE A RDG ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR DOMINATED THE CNTRL            
CONUS FROM TX TO THE UPR MS VALLEY. WINDS HAD VEERED AGAIN TO WRLY              
WHICH HAS BROUGHT LAKE CLOUDS BACK INTO THE KEWEENAW.                           
TODAY...EMP OF -12C NEAR THE 3K FT INVERSION...PER 04Z KCMX TAMDAR              
SNDG...WAS MARGINAL TO SUPPORT -SHSN ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY PRFL             
ON KHIB/CYQT SNDGS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCT FLURRIES OVER            
THE NRN HLF OF THE KEWEENAW AS WSW WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO SW BY THIS              
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BEFORE SCT-BKN MID               
CLOUDS MOVE IN...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MDLS 700-500 MB RH PROGS.             
ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH MDLS HANDLING OF THE BC SHRTWV              
AND MID LVL TROF MOVING INTO THE GRT LAKES. THE NAM REMAINED                    
SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE MID LVL TROF BY 00Z/SUN WITH THE STRONGEST             
SFC LOW. A BLEND OF THE GFS...SIMILAR IN TIMING TO THE NAM BUT                  
WEAKER...AND THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER UKMET WAS PREFERRED.                           
TONIGHT INTO SAT...AS THE CLIPPER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW                 
MOVES FROM MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT                      
...UPR LVL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 110 KT H3 JET INTO                    
NRN ONTARIO ALONG WITH MODEST QVECTOR CONV WILL BRING INCREASING                
CHANCES FOR -SN. WHILE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW IS                    
EXPECTED INTO THE SYSTEM...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD STILL            
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS FOR SMALL QPF (LESS THAN A                 
TENTH OF AN INCH). SO...EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AN INCH            
OR LESS.                                                                        
LATE SAT INTO SUN...AS THE SFC LOW/TROF MOVES FROM SE LK SUPERIOR               
TOWARD LK HURON...CAA WITH 20-30 KT NRLY 950-850 MB WINDS WILL BRING            
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FROM WEST UPR MI INTO N CNTRL UPR              
MI IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS H8 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -8C              
TO -12C RANGE BTWN 21Z-03Z. THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY                
DEPART OVERNIGHT WITH TRANSITION TO PURE LES. CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW                
WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN VCNTY OF KMQT AND                        
KIWD/ONTONAGON FOR GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS. SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAY               
ALSO IMPACT MID PORTION OF HOUGHTON COUNTY FROM ALSTON TO TWIN LAKES.           
SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE WITH SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF               
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN THE -12C TO -17C RANGE.  GIVEN REMAINING                   
UNCERTAINTY WITH EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WIND             
DIRECTIONS...WENT WITH RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE SNOWFALL FCST AMOUNTS            
OF 3-7 INCHES SAT NIGHT AND 2-4 INCHES SUN IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.            
IF MDLS REMAIN CONSISTENT...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR POTENTIAL OF 8            
INCHES IN BEST 12 HR WINDOW 00Z-12Z (WEST) OF 03Z-015Z(N CNTRL). 24             
HOUR AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LES SHOULD TAPER OFF            
TOWARD MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS INVERSION               
HGTS FALL AND SHEAR INCREASES WITH SFC RDG BUILDING INTO THE REGION.            
HOWEVER...THE SLOWER UKMET SCENARIO WOULD KEEP NRLY SFC-850 WINDS               
AND LES GOING OVER MOST OF NRN UPR MI THROUGH 00Z/MON.                          
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL             
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR -SN.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
346 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
AS OF THIS WRITING...THE SURFACE LOW PROVIDING US WITH OUR SNOW THIS            
MORNING IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. IN ADVANCE OF THIS                   
LOW...THE INITIAL BURST OF WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW HAS ALREADY ADVANCED             
CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NY INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NORTH                         
COUNTRY...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT NOW WORKING INTO FAR WESTERN               
NY/THE FINGER LAKES AS PER THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.              
BECAUSE OF THIS...MOST OF THE STEADY PCPN STILL UPSTREAM OF US IS               
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...IN THE MID            
AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE CURRENTLY LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN                
ONTARIO/LAKE HURON/LOWER MICHIGAN.                                              
THE MODELS ARE IN UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW                   
TODAY...WITH THE 00Z/06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND RUC ALL TRACKING THE               
SURFACE WAVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA/NIAGARA                     
COUNTY...AND INTO LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP             
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HEAVIER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW LARGELY TO             
OUR NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH BY THE SAME TOKEN THERE WILL STILL                  
LIKELY BE A 1-2 HOUR BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AS THE TRAILING COLD                 
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS             
TODAY...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW LOOK REASONABLE              
ACROSS THE AREA...OR A BIT LESS THAN OFFERED BY THE 00Z NAM. THE                
LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER              
LAKES REGION...WHILE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE                   
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OWING TO LIMITED                
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.                                            
BECAUSE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED SO FAR                    
(GENERALLY 1-2")...AND THE FACT THAT WE ARE EXPECTING A BIT LESS                
SNOW TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP             
THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THIS PACKAGE. THAT SAID...WHILE            
EVENT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN ADVISORY                  
CRITERIA...ANY UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL STILL BE SNOW COVERED AND                
EXTREMELY SLIPPERY THIS MORNING.                                                
ANY ONGOING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD HOLD ITS OWN             
UNTIL ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...THEN A CRASHING               
INVERSION/DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER/WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP END               
THE LAKE EFFECT...DURING THIS EVENING OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND BY MIDDAY            
SATURDAY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING            
THROUGH THOSE TIMES...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR...IF              
ANY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.                                               
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY               
DAY FOR THE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL ALSO TURN OUT TO BE RATHER WINDY              
AS A STIFF/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EVEN             
THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...IT WILL DEFINITELY               
NOT FEEL THAT WARM.                                                             
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH               
WILL GRADUALLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA...EVENTUALLY                 
SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A LIKELIHOOD              
OF SNOW SHOWERS. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS FROM            
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING...THEN HAVE GONE              
LIKELY EVERYWHERE THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FROPA.                       
ONE MESOSCALE FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS LATTER PERIOD: BOTH THE              
NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE -8C TO -10C             
RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A WEAKENING            
INVERSION/DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WITH            
A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR               
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REDEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATER SATURDAY            
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND             
THIS WOULD AFFECT THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS. FOR NOW...HAVE               
RAISED POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATER               
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY                   
MONITORED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
THE WINTRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE             
UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES                 
REGION. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND                
MINUS 15C THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THEN JUST A LITTLE WARMER                  
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE                 
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL              
LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE INITIAL BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW SWEPT ACROSS WESTERN NEW               
YORK BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AND EVEN              
LIFR AT TIMES. A SEMI DRY SLOT HAS FOLLOWED HOWEVER...SO CONDITIONS             
WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH 12Z IN PATCHY SNOW. KART              
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...ALBEIT DELAYED A FEW HOURS. A COLD                
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z WITH A              
BURST OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...BUT ALL WILL IMPROVE              
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY             
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FROPA.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WE WILL HAVE A VERY COMPLEX WIND SCENARIO EARLY THIS MORNING AS                 
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT AT 06Z MOVES EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO             
BY 12Z AND THEN WEAKENS...GIVING WAY TO A COASTAL STORM OFF NEW                 
JERSEY. THIS PATH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE             
ON THE LAKE ERIE WATERS BUT THEY WILL TEND EASTERLY OVER LAKE                   
ONTARIO. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE               
THIS MORNING AND LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                
BEFORE LIGHTENING UP ONLY SLIGHTLY EARLY SATURDAY. THE WESTERLY                 
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING SATURDAY AS DEEPENING LOW                   
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.                                         
WE WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR ALL                 
NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 4 PM SATURDAY...BEGINNING EARLY THIS                   
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN SHORE              
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER.                                         
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL NEARSHORES THROUGH SATURDAY               
           AFTERNOON.                                                           
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JJR                                                                
LONG TERM...SAGE                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...SFM                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
0108 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                          
STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE RAPIDLY                 
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN                      
OHIO...KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND             
GUSTY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SOUTHERN TAFS TOWARDS SUN RISE AND                 
NORTHERN TAFS A FEW HOURS LATER. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH              
MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT IFR VICINITY DAY MAINLY DUE TO BLOWING                
SNOW. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES              
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET WITH A LIGHT                
SOUTHWEST WIND.                                                                 
HAYDU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1110 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
HAVE UPDATED TO CLEAR HEADLINES FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN FCST AREA.               
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 928 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW NEAR KMIE. WINDS ON THE BACK               
SIDE OF THE LOW ARE GUSTING TO 30 MPH. KILN RADAR SHOWING RETURNS               
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT PULLS OFF TO THE                  
EAST. DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION IS NOW KICKING IN AND IS A BIT                  
LIGHTER. WARMER AIR HAS MOVED UP INTO THE TRI-STATE AND SOUTH                   
CENTRAL OHIO OHIO AS MANY PLACES ARE AROUND TO ABOVE FREEZING.                  
HAVE THROWN OUT AN UPDATE ALREADY TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE               
PMH AREA. WILL THROW OUT ANOTHER UPDATE TO BRING AN END TO THE                  
PRECIP SOONER. LATEST RUC SHOWING PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY AS DRY                  
SLOT PUSHES EAST QUICKLY. 700 MB DEFORMATION IS MOVING THROUGH                  
CURRENTLY AND IS WELL AHEAD OF 700 MB TROF.                                     
WILL LEAVE ALL HEADLINES WHERE THEY ARE AS SW WINDS ON THE                      
BACKSIDE OF LOW WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA                
AND MY CAUSE LIMBS AND POWER LINES TO BREAK CLOSER TO THE OHIO                  
RIVER. NIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE HEADLINES DOWN.                                    
TIPTON                                                                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING DOUBLE BARREL LOW FROM NASHVILLE               
TO SOUTH CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS WITH SELY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING. KILN                
RADAR SHOWS RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY              
ACROSS SW FORECAST AREA.                                                        
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING NORTHERN PART OF                   
SURFACE LOW UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN LOW JUMPS TO THE                
EAST COAST. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BETWEEN                 
MODELS. RUC IS THE COOLEST WITH NAM AND GFS BEING A BIT WARMER. AS              
A RESULT OF CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE DECREASED                 
SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-71 CORRIDOR PER SOME MIX OF SLEET AND                   
FZRA. HAVE TRIED TO STICK WITH 1300 DM (1000-850 MB THICKNESS) AS               
A DELINEATION OF SNOW/MIX OFF RUC. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST               
FIT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. REASON FOR 1300 DM WAS WITH STRONG                 
LIFT FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS FIGURE DIABATIC COOLING WILL HELP TO                  
KEEP SNOW GOING AT A WARMER THICKNESSES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                  
USING GARCIA METHOD HAVE GONE WITH A 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE NORTH OF                 
I-71. RIGHT NOW THINK MAX SNOWFALL WILL BE IN A STRIP OF 10 TO 50               
MILES NORTH OF I-71 WITH 5 TO 6 INCHES BEING THE AVERAGE                        
MEASUREMENT.                                                                    
GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW GOES FROM                  
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE. THIS WILL CREATE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND                 
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.                                        
REST OF SHORT TERM FORECAST IS BENIGN. MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE                
CONSIDERING THE SPREAD FROM MET AND FWC. WILL GO WITH MET FOR                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEAR SKIES.               
IT SHOULD TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE SW WIND TO MIX IN.                        
TIPTON                                                                          
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
RATHER COLD UNSETTLED WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR OH VLY THRU                    
EXTENDED.  SFC LO TRACKING THRU GRT LKS TO BEGIN ON SUN.  TRAILING              
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THRU FCST AREA DURING DAY SUN USHERING IN                 
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO REGION.  BNDRY LYR THICKNESSES                
REMAIN COLD ENUF THAT ALL PCPN WILL FALL IN FORM OF -SN.  AT THIS               
POINT...PCPN LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL LK              
EFFECT -SHSN CONTINUING FOR SUN NIGHT.  A SECONDARY MID LVL S/WV                
EMBEDDED IN MEAN LONGWAVE TROF WILL DROP INTO FCST AREA FOR                     
MON...AND FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHSN.               
HI PRES THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR TUES AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING                 
DVLPS AHEAD OF NEXT S/WV MOVING OUT OF NRN PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE                
WILL TRACK INTO LWR GRT LKS FOR MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE ADDL CHANCES FOR            
PRIMARILY -SN.  THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE                   
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.  HAVE TRENDED WITH CONSENSUS SOLN OF                   
BRINGING S/WV THRU REGION ON WED...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS NOW DELAYING                
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL ERLY THURS.  WILL GO WITH 30 POPS WED...BUT HAVE              
LINGERED LO CHC POPS INTO THURS TO ACCOUNT FOR 12Z GFS SOLN.                    
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND LOWER THAN               
MEX/MEN GUID.  TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION POTENTIAL SNOW COVER FROM              
EVENT TONIGHT AND LARGE UPR LVL TROF FOR EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS               
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/PCPN IN EXTENDED...COLDER TEMPS CERTAINLY             
APPEAR MORE PLAUSIBLE.  HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN U20S/L30S THRU BULK             
OF EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                             
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-             
     070>072 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                                                 
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OHZ064-065-073-074 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
255 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVR BULK OF CENTRAL PA IN              
ADVANCE OF UPPER LO ROTATING THRU OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY             
LL JET (70KTS ON KCCX VWP)...PRODUCING A 6-8HR PERIOD OF STRONG WAA             
EARLY THIS AM. HOWEVER...BACK EDGE OF SNOW ALREADY ENTERING WESTERN             
PA. LATEST RUC ENDS STEADY SNOW BEFORE DAWN ACROSS ALL BUT SUSQ                 
VALLEY. DESPITE THE DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...THE SNOW:WATER RATIO               
MEASURED AT PSU LAST HOUR WAS 8:1...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN                
THAT MAX OMEGA OCCURRING ARND -6C. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS FCST OF A                 
GENERAL 5-8 INCHES STILL SEEMS ON TRACK GIVEN SNOW REPORTS SO FAR               
AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS.                                                        
UPSLOPING FLOW WILL PRODUCE LINGERING SNOW SHWRS OVR THE MTNS.                  
HOWEVER...EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS AS INVERSION ONLY EXPECTED            
ARND 800 MB. THE LARGER ISSUE WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN              
OPEN AREAS LATER TODAY. AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS S OF NEW                        
ENGLAND...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BY AFTN WITH GUSTS LIKELY               
CLOSE TO 40MPH BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.                                        
LEANED TOWARD COLDER MET READINGS TONIGHT BASED ON FRESH SNOW COVER             
AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE TONIGHT AS HI PRES BUILDS IN. AFTER A                
COLD START...SW FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO               
RECOVER TO NR NORMAL READINGS BY SAT AFTN.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                 
A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING TO OUR NORTH NOT LIKELY TO             
BRING SIG PRECIP TO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...EACH SHOULD REINFORCE THE               
CHILL OVER OUR REGION. LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY BUT COLD FOR MOST OF                
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY                     
SNOW...TAPERING TO LIGHTER SNOW BY MID MORNING...FROM WEST TO EAST.             
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE MVFR IN SC...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED                
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDS NORTHWARD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR PAZ006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-                  
041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066 UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY.                     
SNOW ADVISORY FOR PAZ004-005 UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD                                                         
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD                                                          
AVIATION...MARTIN                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
605 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
POCKETS OF -SHSN/FLURRIES CONTINUE FROM ROUGHLY LOU/FTK AREA OVER IN            
LEX. STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 900MB (-14C LEVEL) SEEN IN 1040 UTC                
ACARS SOUNDING AT SDF...BUFKIT DATA SHOWS THIS ENVIRONMENT                      
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE -SHSN/FLURRIES.                 
COULD SEE SOME MINOR TRACE ACCUMULATIONS...SLICK SPOTS LIKELY FROM              
REFREEZE LAST NIGHT AS WELL (REFERENCE ONGOING SPS). REFINED CLOUD              
COVER GRIDS FOR NEXT 6-9 HOURS BASED ON ANTICIPATION THAT SECOND                
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER ERN IL/WRN IND WILL DROP INTO THE             
SRN IND/LOU/LEX ZONES THIS MORNING. WILL INCLUDE THIS TREND IN THE              
12 UTC TAF ISSUANCE. WITH SNOW COVER...IT HAS DROPPED TO 7 AT HNB               
LAST HOUR...WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE/UPPER TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND                  
CHILLS NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. CS               
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                  
...VERY COLD OVER NEXT 24 HOURS...                                              
IN THE WAKE OF POTENT UPPER TROF BARRELING EASTWARD OVER IN/OH...               
WESTERLIES HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVER THE CWA...G25-30KTS COMMON DURING               
THE PAST FEW HOURS. WIND CHILLS INTO SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO                 
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY                
THIS MORNING PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.            
THERE WERE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES OVER INDIANA EARLIER...THOUGH               
WITH WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE FOR SRN              
INDIANA.                                                                        
LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS OF 06 UTC...SOME BREAKS             
ALONG/WEST OF I-65. EMBEDDED WITHIN...A RATHER PERSISTENT BAND OF               
-SHSN/FLURRIES HAS DEVELOPED FROM BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY OVER INTO THE             
FTK/LOU/FFT AREAS...PRODUCING SOME TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. BUFKIT                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES INTO THE -10              
TO -15C LEVEL PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE              
TO MENTION SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THERE HAVE BEEN                  
REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS DUE TO REFREEZE FROM YESTERDAYS PCPN...                    
SOMETHING THAT MORNING COMMUTERS WILL HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND...                   
ESPECIALLY IN PARKING LOTS AND UNTREATED SURFACES.                              
CLOUD FCST WILL BE CHALLENGING. RUC/NAM 925MB RH FIELDS DEPICT THE              
CURRENT CLOUD DISTRIBUTION WELL...AND INDICATE CLEARING FROM SW-NE              
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHALLOW            
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE. THOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SWITCHING              
FROM W TO N/NW TODAY...THAT MAY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF CLEARING                
SUCH THAT PARTS OF SE IND INTO LEX/BLUEGRASS COUNTIES MAY STAY                  
CLOUDY LONGER.                                                                  
TEMPERATURES ARE ANOTHER CONCERN. WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -10C PER RUC            
ANALYSIS AND SDF ACARS SOUNDINGS...A VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE                  
ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER. LEANED TOWARD RAW            
NAM/MOS NUMBERS. SNOWCOVER OVER SRN IND WILL HAVE A DOWNWARD                    
INFLUENCE ON TEMPS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS             
AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. WON'T              
GO AS COLD AS RAW NAM DATA TONIGHT...BUT SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGIT                
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SRN IND...WITH LOW/MIDDLE TEENS ELSEWHERE IN               
THE CWA. CS                                                                     
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-THURSDAY)...                                               
.SATURDAY...                                                                    
EXPECT A TRANQUIL DAY AS LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN                  
SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL PROVIDE              
SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...ALBEIT WITH STILL CHILLY                         
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IN               
THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH                 
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.                                          
.SUNDAY...                                                                      
AS A REX BLOCK SHARPENS ACROSS THE WEST COAST...TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY             
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS JET STREAM ENERGY DROPS SOUTHWARD               
ACROSS CENTRAL US. SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE                  
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD SURGE                
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY               
AND CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY AND SUNDAY              
NIGHT. CHANCES OF SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS AN ELEVATED FRONT EXPECTED TO                  
DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.                                                        
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                    
THIS PERIOD MAY BE THE START OF AN UPPER AIR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS             
REX BLOCK ACROSS WEST COAST BREAKS DOWN DUE TO WESTERLIES                       
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO                      
VALLEY...RUNNING AROUND 13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF DEC            
SO FAR...MAY MODERATE AS PERSISTENT COLD TROUGH EASES AND MOVES EAST            
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN MOVING EAST ACROSS               
THE PLAINS...THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS STORM FREE THIS PERIOD.                
WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK               
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS UPPER OHIO VALLEY. JSD                                 
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1100 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                      
...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN LOWER CT VALLEY              
TO SOUTHERN NH...                                                               
.MESO/NEAR TERM UPDATE...                                                       
15Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING FROM ISLIP NY              
NORTHEAST ALONG LONG ISLAND...NEAR COASTAL RI...NORTHEAST TO NEW                
BEDFORD...NORTH TO BEVERLY. ALSO...A SURFACE TROF IS FORMING FROM               
THE LOW CENTER SOUTH OF ISLIP...NORTHWARD PAST NORTH ADAMS MA.  40              
KM NAM SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES FROM 15Z TO            
18Z...AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.                                                    
KALY RADAR SHOWING A DEVELOPING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH 30 TO EVEN              
40 DBZ REFLECTIVITY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BAND....UNDER SURFACE                
TROF AND WHERE SECONDARY BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WAS INDICATED.            
THUNDERSNOW REPORTED IN CHICOPEE AT 1050 AM...1/4SM S+ AT                       
HFD...BAF...CEF AND AQW. KEENE NH REPORTS 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SO              
FAR. AT THIS TIME...THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE                    
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE              
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN                
HOUR...AND ISOLATED 3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL...ARE EXPECTED UNDER 30            
TO 40 DBZ REFLECTIVITY.                                                         
FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KBOX RADAR PICKING UP ON BRIGHT              
BANDING...SOME MELTING OCCURRING ALOFT WITH REPORTS OF SLEET...RAIN             
...AND FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTH COASTAL MA AND COASTAL RI. MIX TO RAIN            
LINE WAS ALONG A KINGSTON...PVD...PYM TO NEAR BVY LINE. COASTAL                 
FRONT MAY PULL INLAND SOME OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MIX SUPPORTS                    
KEEPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE AT THIS TIME.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MSAS INDICATING RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF UP TO 9 MB IN 3                 
HOURS...AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT.  PLAN TO MENTION GUSTS TO 55 KT IN             
OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE STORM WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.              
NBELK                                                                           
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 920 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)...                                           
.MESO/SHORT TERM UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...                                      
COMPLEX WINTER SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS AM...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD                 
CANAL TO I95 CORRIDOR WHERE CSTL FNT BEGINNING TO DVLP. PARENT SFC              
LOW OVR LK ONTARIO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN/FILL...WHILE CSTL LOW JUST E             
OF NJ BEGINS TO INTENSIFY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRES FALLS CENTERED JUST             
S. OF MONTAUK ON THE ORDER OF -8 MBS DURING THE PAST 3 HRS. THESE               
PRES FALLS WL GRADUALLY BACK SFC WNDS TO N-NE OVR THE AREA AS THE               
MORNING PROGRESSES...WHICH WL RETARD THE N MVMNT OF THE CSTL FNT AND            
MIXED PRECIP LINE.                                                              
THIS IS APPARENT IN THE 14Z SFC OBS...WITH SE WND AT BID AND NE WND             
AT GON AND WST. THE RESULT HERE IS FOR SUBFREEZING SFC LYR TO BE                
DELAYED MVG NWD FM CAPE COD CANAL TO I95. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS             
AREA...IS THAT SUFFICIENT WARMING/MELTING IS OCCURRING ABV THE SFC              
LYR (PER STG SE INFLOW ON KBOX VAD WND PROFILE) ACRS THIS AREA FOR SN           
TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND OR FREEZING RN...AS WST AND GON RPTG -FZRA ANS           
SVRL SPOTTER RPTG SLEET. ALSO...KBOX COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY PICKING            
UP ON THIS WELL...WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY OVR NARRAGANSETT BAY                   
INDICATING SLEET.                                                               
SO CURRENT FCST OF RN-SN LINE TRAVERSING NWWD INTO I95 CORRIDOR AND             
PSSBLY AS FAR NW AS I495 LKS GD. HWR...GIVEN LATEST TRENDS/CSTL FNT             
DVLPMNT AND STG PRES FALLS...SUBFREEZING SFC LYR WL BE DELAYED MVG              
NWD AND WL YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX OF FZRA AND SLEET FM CAPE COD             
CANAL INTO I95. THUS...WL UPDATED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT MIXED PTYPE               
TRANSITION...RATHER THAN A CLEAN PTYPE CHANGE FM SN TO RN.                      
INLAND...ESPECIALLY N OF THE MASS TURNPIKE AND NW OF I495 IT IS                 
FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...WITH PTYPE REMAINING ALL SNOW.                        
NO CHANGES TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE MOMENT. ALTH...WL HV TO WATCH           
TRENDS OF CSTL FNT ALONG WITH STG PRES FALLS OFF THE S.CST. IF CSTL             
FNT REMAINS FARTHER S...BLYR WRMG MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A                     
CHANGEOVER AND STG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE             
VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC COOLING PROCESSES. THEREFORE...COULD HAVE            
LESS MIXING IN FROM I495 TO I95 YIELDING HIER SN TOTALS. WL JUST HV             
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND AWAIT 12Z MDL GUID.                                       
NOCERA                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 500 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
MESO DISCUSSION AND 06Z MODEL UPDATE...                                         
SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO NYC AND JUST STARTED IN HARTFORD AS WELL AS               
BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS. KBOX RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF SNOW             
FROM MANCHESTER TO CAPE ANN AND OFFSHORE WHICH FOR MOST PART IS                 
ALOFT...BUT IT IS GIVING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN NH. YOU CAN           
SEE THE DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS VERY WELL ON KBOX RADAR TOO...                  
COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING             
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WE EXPECT SNOW TO REACH WORCESTER AND                  
PROVIDENCE BY 7 AM AND BOSTON AROUND 8 AM OR SO.                                
MODELS ARE TRENDING CLOSER WITH EACH RUN. 06Z NAM IS NOW A BIT                  
FARTHER S WITH ITS LOW TRACK...NOW FROM MONTAUK POINT TO CAPE COD               
BAY WITH GFS HOLDING FIRM ON ITS TRACK S OF NANTUCKET. OTHER                    
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 06Z RUC AND 06Z 10KM BOX ETA PREFER A                
TRACK CLOSER TO NAM...BUT THIS JUST SEEMS A BIT TOO FAR N TO US. ONE            
THING WE NOTICED IS NAM IS STILL A BIT SLOWER...AND BRINGS BEST LIFT            
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...SO              
WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY FOR              
HARTFORD TO WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE CORRIDOR WHERE SNOWFLAKE                     
PRODUCTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.                                                   
WE HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS STRONG LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE            
ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN BOSTON AREA. IT            
STILL APPEARS WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN IN PROVIDENCE AND SE             
MA. BOSTON MAY VERY WELL END UP SEEING MORE OF A MIX AS OPPOSED TO A            
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD NAM VERIFY...BUT A PROLONGED SE WIND USUALLY              
KILLS THE SNOWFLAKES IN BOSTON.                                                 
ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE SO FAR IS WHAT'S BEEN GOING ON               
UPSTREAM ACROSS MID ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FROM WASHINGTON DC INTO               
PA WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES AND             
EVEN THUNDER! THIS SHOULD ALL COME OUR WAY LATER THIS MORNING AND               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
JWD                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 335 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
WE ARE KEEPING ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR SNOW TODAY...           
BUT WILL TRIM AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD             
SERVE AS OUR TRANSITION ZONE. TOTALS ACROSS INTERIOR LOOK GOOD. WE              
WILL ALSO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS TO           
A HIGH WIND WARNING.                                                            
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND                
EASTERN PA...NOTE HOW QUICKLY VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/2SM OR LESS AS             
SNOW BEGINS! ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO                    
OVERCOME...IT WON'T TAKE LONG TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SUCH A                
POTENT SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP. WE EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN CT VALLEY             
AROUND SUNRISE (PROBABLY 6 AM) AND QUICKLY HEAD TO E MA COAST DURING            
MORNING RUSH HOUR (8-9 AM)...PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.                         
00Z NAM STILL FARTHEST N OF MODELS THIS MORNING...BUT 00Z GFS                   
CONTINUES ITS TREND OF EDGING FARTHER N WITH EACH RUN...NOW TAKING              
SECONDARY LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET. IT AGREES WELL WITH ITS 00Z                 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MATCHES WELL WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE ALSO LOOKED            
AT 00Z NGM...AND IT ACTUALLY PRESENTS A DECENT SOLUTION. ITS SURFACE            
LOW IS SIMILAR TO GFS...BUT WE LIKE ITS 24HR QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00"               
WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN NAM/GFS. OFTEN WE LIKE TO SEE NGM ON BOARD             
WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF BEFORE JUMPING ON A BIG EVENT...AND SINCE WE               
HAVE HAD DOUBTS AS TO EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS SHOWN ON PAST RUNS OF               
NAM/GFS THIS LEADS MORE CREDENCE TO FACT THAT THOSE TWO MODELS ARE              
PROBABLY OVERDOING IT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS             
SYSTEM AS UPPER LOW DOES NOT CUTOFF UNTIL IT PASSES CAPE COD.                   
SO IF WE ADJUST OUR TRACK TO JUST INSIDE 40/70 BENCHMARK...IT WOULD             
PLACE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR FROM NORTHERN CT INTO              
CENTRAL/INTERIOR NE MA AND SW NH. CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW                     
TREMENDOUS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION WITH EXCELLENT                
POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION/MESOSCALE BANDING. THIS IS ALSO              
ZONE OF MAXIMUM SNOW GROWTH. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO MAKING THIS A              
BLOCKBUSTER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE SPEED OF SYSTEM...SO ALTHOUGH IT'S            
GOING TO SNOW HARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY                
AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2" PER HOUR...IT SHOULD NOT LAST               
LONG ENOUGH TO GIVE WIDESPREAD TOTALS OVER 10". WE'LL PROBABLY GET              
SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING REPORTS WITH THIS AS WELL.                               
CLOSER TO COAST...WE NEED TO DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WE HAVE            
NO BLOCKING HIGH TO NORTH TO KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED IN AT LOW LEVELS.             
WINDS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO TURN SE LATER THIS                               
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE MODELS SHOW 1000 MB AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS               
TURNING W...NOT A GOOD SIGN TO KEEP IT COLD. GFS CROSS SECTIONS MAY             
BE A LITTLE TOO WARM...INDICATING A CHANGE TO RAIN AS FAR INLAND AS             
I-495 IN EASTERN MA AND INTO NW RI. WE THINK IT IS MORE REALISTIC               
THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE (IE RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL END UP NEAR I-95               
BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE AND PROBABLY AS FAR N AS CAPE ANN. A              
COMPLETE CHANGE TO RAIN SEEMS MOST LIKELY WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE              
COAST FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...THEN ACROSS SE MA NEAR TAUNTON AND              
INTO PROVIDENCE.                                                                
THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL NUDGE STORM TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE             
LOCATIONS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SE MIDDLESEX AND W NORFOLK COUNTIES IN A           
LOW-END WINTER STORM WARNING AND THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...AS WE            
THINK PLACES ALONG ROUTE 128 FROM WOBURN AND BELMONT TO NEWTON AND              
DEDHAM WILL SEE THE 4-5" AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND SUCH AS           
LEXINGTON AND ESPECIALLY MEDWAY AND BELLINGHAM WILL SEE THE 6-8"                
TOTALS. IN THOSE ZONES WHERE WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WE             
WILL GENERALLY HAVE 2-4" TOTALS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN COASTAL            
ESSEX COUNTY MA (ZONE 7)...WHERE WE EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN TOTALS...            
FROM 2" ON COASTLINE TO AS MUCH AS 7-8" NEAR NH BORDER. BUT AVERAGE             
IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING THERE.                                  
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO MERRIMACK VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON           
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE BACK ACROSS CT VALLEY. STRONGEST LIFT             
IS HEADING QUICKLY FOR COAST BY MID AFTERNOON...SO WE THINK MANY                
LOCATIONS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 3 OR 4 PM EXCEPT FOR CAPE            
COD AND ISLANDS.                                                                
MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES WIND. SURFACE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF               
CAPE COD WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGHOUT ALL OF                 
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IF WE TAKE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR                
HYANNIS AND NANTUCKET AT FACE VALUE IT SHOWS A STRONG POTENTIAL OF              
50-60KT GUSTS AS THIS DEEPENING OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. WE THINK THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WE HAVE ENOUGH                
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WIND ADVISORY              
WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR S COAST...EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON 40KT              
GUSTS THERE IS LESS. ADVISORIES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR E MA             
COASTLINE BUT RIGHT NOW WE THINK WE WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA                 
THERE.                                                                          
CLEARING SHOULD WORK IN RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW             
RAPID DRYING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH               
GRADUALLY UNTIL SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE.                                  
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
OVERALL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST                  
THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION SATURDAY IN WAKE OF                     
DEPARTING STORM.  SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS                
BACK AS CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD             
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA            
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. COLD AIR            
ADVECTION ACROSS REGION COULD YIELD SHOWERS OVER OUTER WATERS                   
CLIPPING CAPE AND ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST               
FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND RESULTING N TO NW WINDS OVER CAPE COULD               
YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING                  
THROUGH THE COLUMN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...THEN REGION               
AWAITS NEXT POTENTIAL NOREASTER FOR FRIDAY.                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR FOR THE MOMENT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR NANTUCKET WHICH              
WILL SPREAD ONTO S COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL                    
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING TO IFR AS SNOW ARRIVES (THEN TO LIFR           
WITHIN 2 HOURS OF THAT)...CURRENTLY TIMED INTO CT VALLEY TOWARD                 
SUNRISE AND BEFORE MID MORNING ALONG E MA COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT           
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THEN WE                
EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PULLS              
OFF THE COAST.                                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
WE WILL EXPAND STORM WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE CAPE COD BAY            
AND NANTUCKET SOUND...AND MAINTAIN GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE AS WINDS             
INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION             
AS TO HOW FAST THE LOW WILL DEEPEN...IMPACTING WIND GUST POTENTIAL...           
BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY IT WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAPE COD RATHER             
THAN FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS              
SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER AWAY.                                                      
FOLLOWED WNA WAVE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER GIVEN PREVAILING WEST TO                   
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASED SEAS IN BUZZARDS                
BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR              
OUTER WATERS AND ALONG SOUTH COAST...ALL DUE TO WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS            
AND ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                      
CLIMATE...                                                                      
FYI...RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...                  
KBOS... 4.6 INCHES IN 1978                                                      
KPVD... 3.0 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
KORH... 8.0 INCHES IN 1903                                                      
KBDL... 4.2 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                       
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.               
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAZ005-006-013-014-026 UNTIL 5 PM                 
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-015>019 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.              
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ020-021 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY.            
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAZ022>024 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM                  
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ012-015 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                     
RI...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR RIZ001 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RIZ002>005 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                  
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ006>008 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY.            
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM               
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
  ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1             
     AM SATURDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NOCERA                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
920 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
...COMPACT-POTENT WINTER STORM IN PROGRESS...                                   
.MESO/SHORT TERM UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...                                      
COMPLEX WINTER SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS AM...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD CANAL TO        
I95 CORRIDOR WHERE CSTL FNT BEGINNING TO DVLP. PARENT SFC LOW OVR LK            
ONTARIO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN/FILL...WHILE CSTL LOW JUST E OF NJ BEGINS           
TO INTENSIFY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRES FALLS CENTERED JUST S. OF MONTAUK            
ON THE ORDER OF -8 MBS DURING THE PAST 3 HRS. THESE PRES FALLS WL               
GRADUALLY BACK SFC WNDS TO N-NE OVR THE AREA AS THE MORNING                     
PROGRESSES...WHICH WL RETARD THE N MVMNT OF THE CSTL FNT AND MIXED              
PRECIP LINE.                                                                    
THIS IS APPARENT IN THE 14Z SFC OBS...WITH SE WND AT BID AND NE WND             
AT GON AND WST. THE RESULT HERE IS FOR SUBFREEZING SFC LYR TO BE                
DELAYED MVG NWD FM CAPE COD CANAL TO I95. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS             
AREA...IS THAT SUFFICIENT WARMING/MELTING IS OCCURRING ABV THE SFC              
LYR (PER STG SE INFLOW ON KBOX VAD WND PROFILE) ACRS THIS AREA FOR SN           
TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND OR FREEZING RN...AS WST AND GON RPTG -FZRA ANS           
SVRL SPOTTER RPTG SLEET. ALSO...KBOX COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY PICKING UP ON      
THIS WELL...WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY OVR NARRAGANSETT BAY INDICATING              
SLEET.                                                                          
SO CURRENT FCST OF RN-SN LINE TRAVERSING NWWD INTO I95 CORRIDOR AND             
PSSBLY AS FAR NW AS I495 LKS GD. HWR...GIVEN LATEST TRENDS/CSTL FNT             
DVLPMNT AND STG PRES FALLS...SUBFREEZING SFC LYR WL BE DELAYED MVG              
NWD AND WL YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX OF FZRA AND SLEET FM CAPE COD             
CANAL INTO I95. THUS...WL UPDATED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT MIXED PTYPE               
TRANSITION...RATHER THAN A CLEAN PTYPE CHANGE FM SN TO RN.                      
INLAND...ESPECIALLY N OF THE MASS TURNPIKE AND NW OF I495 IT IS                 
FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...WITH PTYPE REMAINING ALL SNOW.                        
NO CHANGES TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE MOMENT. ALTH...WL HV TO WATCH           
TRENDS OF CSTL FNT ALONG WITH STG PRES FALLS OFF THE S.CST. IF CSTL             
FNT REMAINS FARTHER S...BLYR WRMG MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A                     
CHANGEOVER AND STG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE             
VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC COOLING PROCESSES. THEREFORE...COULD HAVE            
LESS MIXING IN FROM I495 TO I95 YIELDING HIER SN TOTALS. WL JUST HV             
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND AWAIT 12Z MDL GUID.                                       
NOCERA                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 500 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
MESO DISCUSSION AND 06Z MODEL UPDATE...                                         
SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO NYC AND JUST STARTED IN HARTFORD AS WELL AS               
BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS. KBOX RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF SNOW             
FROM MANCHESTER TO CAPE ANN AND OFFSHORE WHICH FOR MOST PART IS                 
ALOFT...BUT IT IS GIVING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN NH. YOU CAN           
SEE THE DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS VERY WELL ON KBOX RADAR TOO...                  
COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING             
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WE EXPECT SNOW TO REACH WORCESTER AND                  
PROVIDENCE BY 7 AM AND BOSTON AROUND 8 AM OR SO.                                
MODELS ARE TRENDING CLOSER WITH EACH RUN. 06Z NAM IS NOW A BIT                  
FARTHER S WITH ITS LOW TRACK...NOW FROM MONTAUK POINT TO CAPE COD               
BAY WITH GFS HOLDING FIRM ON ITS TRACK S OF NANTUCKET. OTHER                    
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 06Z RUC AND 06Z 10KM BOX ETA PREFER A                
TRACK CLOSER TO NAM...BUT THIS JUST SEEMS A BIT TOO FAR N TO US. ONE            
THING WE NOTICED IS NAM IS STILL A BIT SLOWER...AND BRINGS BEST LIFT            
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...SO              
WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY FOR              
HARTFORD TO WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE CORRIDOR WHERE SNOWFLAKE                     
PRODUCTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.                                                   
WE HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS STRONG LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE            
ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN BOSTON AREA. IT            
STILL APPEARS WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN IN PROVIDENCE AND SE             
MA. BOSTON MAY VERY WELL END UP SEEING MORE OF A MIX AS OPPOSED TO A            
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD NAM VERIFY...BUT A PROLONGED SE WIND USUALLY              
KILLS THE SNOWFLAKES IN BOSTON.                                                 
ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE SO FAR IS WHAT'S BEEN GOING ON               
UPSTREAM ACROSS MID ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FROM WASHINGTON DC INTO               
PA WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES AND             
EVEN THUNDER! THIS SHOULD ALL COME OUR WAY LATER THIS MORNING AND               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
JWD                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 335 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
WE ARE KEEPING ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR SNOW TODAY...           
BUT WILL TRIM AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD             
SERVE AS OUR TRANSITION ZONE. TOTALS ACROSS INTERIOR LOOK GOOD. WE              
WILL ALSO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS TO           
A HIGH WIND WARNING.                                                            
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND                
EASTERN PA...NOTE HOW QUICKLY VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/2SM OR LESS AS             
SNOW BEGINS! ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO                    
OVERCOME...IT WON'T TAKE LONG TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SUCH A                
POTENT SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP. WE EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN CT VALLEY             
AROUND SUNRISE (PROBABLY 6 AM) AND QUICKLY HEAD TO E MA COAST DURING            
MORNING RUSH HOUR (8-9 AM)...PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.                         
00Z NAM STILL FARTHEST N OF MODELS THIS MORNING...BUT 00Z GFS                   
CONTINUES ITS TREND OF EDGING FARTHER N WITH EACH RUN...NOW TAKING              
SECONDARY LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET. IT AGREES WELL WITH ITS 00Z                 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MATCHES WELL WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE ALSO LOOKED            
AT 00Z NGM...AND IT ACTUALLY PRESENTS A DECENT SOLUTION. ITS SURFACE            
LOW IS SIMILAR TO GFS...BUT WE LIKE ITS 24HR QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00"               
WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN NAM/GFS. OFTEN WE LIKE TO SEE NGM ON BOARD             
WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF BEFORE JUMPING ON A BIG EVENT...AND SINCE WE               
HAVE HAD DOUBTS AS TO EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS SHOWN ON PAST RUNS OF               
NAM/GFS THIS LEADS MORE CREDENCE TO FACT THAT THOSE TWO MODELS ARE              
PROBABLY OVERDOING IT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS             
SYSTEM AS UPPER LOW DOES NOT CUTOFF UNTIL IT PASSES CAPE COD.                   
SO IF WE ADJUST OUR TRACK TO JUST INSIDE 40/70 BENCHMARK...IT WOULD             
PLACE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR FROM NORTHERN CT INTO              
CENTRAL/INTERIOR NE MA AND SW NH. CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW                     
TREMENDOUS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION WITH EXCELLENT                
POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION/MESOSCALE BANDING. THIS IS ALSO              
ZONE OF MAXIMUM SNOW GROWTH. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO MAKING THIS A              
BLOCKBUSTER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE SPEED OF SYSTEM...SO ALTHOUGH IT'S            
GOING TO SNOW HARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY                
AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2" PER HOUR...IT SHOULD NOT LAST               
LONG ENOUGH TO GIVE WIDESPREAD TOTALS OVER 10". WE'LL PROBABLY GET              
SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING REPORTS WITH THIS AS WELL.                               
CLOSER TO COAST...WE NEED TO DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WE HAVE            
NO BLOCKING HIGH TO NORTH TO KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED IN AT LOW LEVELS.             
WINDS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO TURN SE LATER THIS                               
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE MODELS SHOW 1000 MB AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS               
TURNING W...NOT A GOOD SIGN TO KEEP IT COLD. GFS CROSS SECTIONS MAY             
BE A LITTLE TOO WARM...INDICATING A CHANGE TO RAIN AS FAR INLAND AS             
I-495 IN EASTERN MA AND INTO NW RI. WE THINK IT IS MORE REALISTIC               
THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE (IE RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL END UP NEAR I-95               
BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE AND PROBABLY AS FAR N AS CAPE ANN. A              
COMPLETE CHANGE TO RAIN SEEMS MOST LIKELY WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE              
COAST FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...THEN ACROSS SE MA NEAR TAUNTON AND              
INTO PROVIDENCE.                                                                
THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL NUDGE STORM TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE             
LOCATIONS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SE MIDDLESEX AND W NORFOLK COUNTIES IN A           
LOW-END WINTER STORM WARNING AND THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...AS WE            
THINK PLACES ALONG ROUTE 128 FROM WOBURN AND BELMONT TO NEWTON AND              
DEDHAM WILL SEE THE 4-5" AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND SUCH AS           
LEXINGTON AND ESPECIALLY MEDWAY AND BELLINGHAM WILL SEE THE 6-8"                
TOTALS. IN THOSE ZONES WHERE WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WE             
WILL GENERALLY HAVE 2-4" TOTALS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN COASTAL            
ESSEX COUNTY MA (ZONE 7)...WHERE WE EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN TOTALS...            
FROM 2" ON COASTLINE TO AS MUCH AS 7-8" NEAR NH BORDER. BUT AVERAGE             
IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING THERE.                                  
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO MERRIMACK VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON           
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE BACK ACROSS CT VALLEY. STRONGEST LIFT             
IS HEADING QUICKLY FOR COAST BY MID AFTERNOON...SO WE THINK MANY                
LOCATIONS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 3 OR 4 PM EXCEPT FOR CAPE            
COD AND ISLANDS.                                                                
MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES WIND. SURFACE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF               
CAPE COD WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGHOUT ALL OF                 
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IF WE TAKE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR                
HYANNIS AND NANTUCKET AT FACE VALUE IT SHOWS A STRONG POTENTIAL OF              
50-60KT GUSTS AS THIS DEEPENING OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. WE THINK THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WE HAVE ENOUGH                
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WIND ADVISORY              
WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR S COAST...EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON 40KT              
GUSTS THERE IS LESS. ADVISORIES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR E MA             
COASTLINE BUT RIGHT NOW WE THINK WE WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA                 
THERE.                                                                          
CLEARING SHOULD WORK IN RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW             
RAPID DRYING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH               
GRADUALLY UNTIL SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE.                                  
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
OVERALL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST                  
THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION SATURDAY IN WAKE OF                     
DEPARTING STORM.  SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS                
BACK AS CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD             
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA            
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. COLD AIR            
ADVECTION ACROSS REGION COULD YIELD SHOWERS OVER OUTER WATERS                   
CLIPPING CAPE AND ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST               
FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND RESULTING N TO NW WINDS OVER CAPE COULD               
YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING                  
THROUGH THE COLUMN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...THEN REGION               
AWAITS NEXT POTENTIAL NOREASTER FOR FRIDAY.                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR FOR THE MOMENT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR NANTUCKET WHICH              
WILL SPREAD ONTO S COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL                    
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING TO IFR AS SNOW ARRIVES (THEN TO LIFR           
WITHIN 2 HOURS OF THAT)...CURRENTLY TIMED INTO CT VALLEY TOWARD                 
SUNRISE AND BEFORE MID MORNING ALONG E MA COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT           
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THEN WE                
EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PULLS              
OFF THE COAST.                                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
WE WILL EXPAND STORM WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE CAPE COD BAY            
AND NANTUCKET SOUND...AND MAINTAIN GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE AS WINDS             
INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION             
AS TO HOW FAST THE LOW WILL DEEPEN...IMPACTING WIND GUST POTENTIAL...           
BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY IT WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAPE COD RATHER             
THAN FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS              
SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER AWAY.                                                      
FOLLOWED WNA WAVE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER GIVEN PREVAILING WEST TO                   
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASED SEAS IN BUZZARDS                
BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR              
OUTER WATERS AND ALONG SOUTH COAST...ALL DUE TO WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS            
AND ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                      
CLIMATE...                                                                      
FYI...RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...                  
KBOS... 4.6 INCHES IN 1978                                                      
KPVD... 3.0 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
KORH... 8.0 INCHES IN 1903                                                      
KBDL... 4.2 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                       
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.               
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAZ005-006-013-014-026 UNTIL 5 PM                 
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-015>019 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.              
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ020-021 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY.            
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAZ022>024 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM                  
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ012-015 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                     
RI...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR RIZ001 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RIZ002>005 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                  
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ006>008 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY.            
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM               
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
  ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1             
     AM SATURDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NOCERA                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
920 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILD MORNING AS THE NORTHERN LOW THAT PASSED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO              
CREATED STRONG WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THIS COUPLED WITH              
AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOW BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCED              
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. FORTUNATELY THE COASTAL LOW OFF NEW               
JERSEY WILL DEEPEN AND ZAP THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN LOW.                    
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED WEST AND AREAS TO THE EAST WILL NOT                   
EXPERIENCE THE SAME WIND STRENGTH AS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE              
DID. ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL THOUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TO               
THE EAST AND THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF BOTH              
LAKES INTO LATE AFTERNOON.                                                      
EARLIER DISCUSSION REMAINS BELOW IN ITS ENTIRETY.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
AS OF THIS WRITING...THE SURFACE LOW PROVIDING US WITH OUR SNOW THIS            
MORNING IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. IN ADVANCE OF THIS                   
LOW...THE INITIAL BURST OF WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW HAS ALREADY ADVANCED             
CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NY INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NORTH                         
COUNTRY...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT NOW WORKING INTO FAR WESTERN               
NY/THE FINGER LAKES AS PER THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.              
BECAUSE OF THIS...MOST OF THE STEADY PCPN STILL UPSTREAM OF US IS               
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...IN THE MID            
AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE CURRENTLY LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN                
ONTARIO/LAKE HURON/LOWER MICHIGAN.                                              
THE MODELS ARE IN UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW                   
TODAY...WITH THE 00Z/06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND RUC ALL TRACKING THE               
SURFACE WAVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA/NIAGARA                     
COUNTY...AND INTO LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. SUCH A TRACK WILL KEEP             
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HEAVIER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW LARGELY TO             
OUR NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH BY THE SAME TOKEN THERE WILL STILL                  
LIKELY BE A 1-2 HOUR BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AS THE TRAILING COLD                 
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS             
TODAY...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW LOOK REASONABLE              
ACROSS THE AREA...OR A BIT LESS THAN OFFERED BY THE 00Z NAM. THE                
LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER              
LAKES REGION...WHILE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE                   
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OWING TO LIMITED                
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.                                            
BECAUSE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED SO FAR                    
(GENERALLY 1-2")...AND THE FACT THAT WE ARE EXPECTING A BIT LESS                
SNOW TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP             
THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THIS PACKAGE. THAT SAID...WHILE            
EVENT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN ADVISORY                  
CRITERIA...ANY UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL STILL BE SNOW COVERED AND                
EXTREMELY SLIPPERY THIS MORNING.                                                
ANY ONGOING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD HOLD ITS OWN             
UNTIL ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...THEN A CRASHING               
INVERSION/DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER/WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP END               
THE LAKE EFFECT...DURING THIS EVENING OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND BY MIDDAY            
SATURDAY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING            
THROUGH THOSE TIMES...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR...IF              
ANY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.                                               
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY               
DAY FOR THE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL ALSO TURN OUT TO BE RATHER WINDY              
AS A STIFF/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EVEN             
THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...IT WILL DEFINITELY               
NOT FEEL THAT WARM.                                                             
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH               
WILL GRADUALLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA...EVENTUALLY                 
SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A LIKELIHOOD              
OF SNOW SHOWERS. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS FROM            
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING...THEN HAVE GONE              
LIKELY EVERYWHERE THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FROPA.                       
ONE MESOSCALE FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS LATTER PERIOD: BOTH THE              
NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE -8C TO -10C             
RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A WEAKENING            
INVERSION/DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WITH            
A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR               
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REDEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATER SATURDAY            
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND             
THIS WOULD AFFECT THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS. FOR NOW...HAVE               
RAISED POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATER               
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY                   
MONITORED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
THE WINTRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE             
UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES                 
REGION. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND                
MINUS 15C THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THEN JUST A LITTLE WARMER                  
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE                 
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL              
LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE INITIAL BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW SWEPT ACROSS WESTERN NEW               
YORK BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AND EVEN              
LIFR AT TIMES. A SEMI DRY SLOT HAS FOLLOWED HOWEVER...SO CONDITIONS             
WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH 12Z IN PATCHY SNOW. KART              
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...ALBEIT DELAYED A FEW HOURS. A COLD                
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z WITH A              
BURST OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...BUT ALL WILL IMPROVE              
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY             
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FROPA.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WE WILL HAVE A VERY COMPLEX WIND SCENARIO EARLY THIS MORNING AS                 
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT AT 06Z MOVES EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO             
BY 12Z AND THEN WEAKENS...GIVING WAY TO A COASTAL STORM OFF NEW                 
JERSEY. THIS PATH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE             
ON THE LAKE ERIE WATERS BUT THEY WILL TEND EASTERLY OVER LAKE                   
ONTARIO. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE               
THIS MORNING AND LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                
BEFORE LIGHTENING UP ONLY SLIGHTLY EARLY SATURDAY. THE WESTERLY                 
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING SATURDAY AS DEEPENING LOW                   
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.                                         
WE WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR ALL                 
NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 4 PM SATURDAY...BEGINNING EARLY THIS                   
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN SHORE              
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER.                                         
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL NEARSHORES THROUGH SATURDAY               
           AFTERNOON.                                                           
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...SAGE                                                                   
SHORT TERM...JJR                                                                
LONG TERM...SAGE                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...SFM                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1010 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                      
.UPDATE                                                                         
HIGHS TODAY STILL SEEM ON TRACK...MAY NOT SEE HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST             
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. RUC NOT                
SHOWING REAL GOOD WAA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST.               
FIXED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS DECK MOVING ACROSS CWA.                
CLEARING LINE CROSSING MISSOURI RIVER AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA             
TODAY. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST BUT HIGHER            
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SO SUNSHINE WILL BE              
LIMITED.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TMT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
933 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS.                  
CLOUD DECK AROUND 850 MB CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS                
SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IS NOW FLIRTING WITH MY SOUTHEAST                 
COUNTIES. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON IT AND                
WILL USE IT AS A ROUGH GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HAVE                     
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY KIMBLE...MASON...AND SAN              
SABA COUNTIES...AND LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THOSE SAME AREAS.                
IF CLOUD DECK HANGS IN TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY...INSTEAD OF COMING                
IN FOR AWHILE AND THEN BREAKING UP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAY               
HAVE TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN EVEN MORE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 516 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005)                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT                      
RANGE...TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24                   
HOURS.                                                                          
23/HUBER                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 306 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005)                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THIS MORNING...UPPER LOWS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND              
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. AFTER              
ANOTHER COLD START TO THE MORNING...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL AVERAGE                
AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER DISTURBANCE                      
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND                
WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...ONLY EFFECT ON OUR                  
WEATHER WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                                                             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER               
LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE                  
SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S.               
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE SHEARED INTO THE UPPER FLOW                   
MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON                
TUESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA                   
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD PREFRONTAL WARMING ON                      
WEDNESDAY WELL INTO THE 60S. AT THIS TIME...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE               
TO WORK WITH IN OUR AREA ANY RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK SLIM.                        
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1140 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FORECAST FOR CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. SATELLITE              
AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO            
OUR NORTH IS MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WERE             
ALSO ADVANCING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP CLOUDS              
AND A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.            
WILL BRING CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE              
ONLY AREA TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE                
SOUTHWEST NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF BWG.                                            
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING STARTED OUT COLD AND WITH CLOUDS HAVE                 
TRIMMED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST.                 
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.                                                           
SCHOLZ                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                  
...VERY COLD OVER NEXT 24 HOURS...                                              
IN THE WAKE OF POTENT UPPER TROF BARRELING EASTWARD OVER IN/OH...               
WESTERLIES HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVER THE CWA...G25-30KTS COMMON DURING               
THE PAST FEW HOURS. WIND CHILLS INTO SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO                 
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY                
THIS MORNING PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.            
THERE WERE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES OVER INDIANA EARLIER...THOUGH               
WITH WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE FOR SRN              
INDIANA.                                                                        
LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS OF 06 UTC...SOME BREAKS             
ALONG/WEST OF I-65. EMBEDDED WITHIN...A RATHER PERSISTENT BAND OF               
-SHSN/FLURRIES HAS DEVELOPED FROM BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY OVER INTO THE             
FTK/LOU/FFT AREAS...PRODUCING SOME TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. BUFKIT                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES INTO THE -10              
TO -15C LEVEL PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE              
TO MENTION SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THERE HAVE BEEN                  
REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS DUE TO REFREEZE FROM YESTERDAYS PCPN...                    
SOMETHING THAT MORNING COMMUTERS WILL HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND...                   
ESPECIALLY IN PARKING LOTS AND UNTREATED SURFACES.                              
CLOUD FCST WILL BE CHALLENGING. RUC/NAM 925MB RH FIELDS DEPICT THE              
CURRENT CLOUD DISTRIBUTION WELL...AND INDICATE CLEARING FROM SW-NE              
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHALLOW            
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE. THOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SWITCHING              
FROM W TO N/NW TODAY...THAT MAY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF CLEARING                
SUCH THAT PARTS OF SE IND INTO LEX/BLUEGRASS COUNTIES MAY STAY                  
CLOUDY LONGER.                                                                  
TEMPERATURES ARE ANOTHER CONCERN. WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR -10C PER RUC            
ANALYSIS AND SDF ACARS SOUNDINGS...A VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE                  
ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER. LEANED TOWARD RAW            
NAM/MOS NUMBERS. SNOWCOVER OVER SRN IND WILL HAVE A DOWNWARD                    
INFLUENCE ON TEMPS TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS             
AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. WON'T              
GO AS COLD AS RAW NAM DATA TONIGHT...BUT SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGIT                
READINGS POSSIBLE IN SRN IND...WITH LOW/MIDDLE TEENS ELSEWHERE IN               
THE CWA. CS                                                                     
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-THURSDAY)...                                               
.SATURDAY...                                                                    
EXPECT A TRANQUIL DAY AS LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN                  
SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL PROVIDE              
SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...ALBEIT WITH STILL CHILLY                         
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IN               
THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH                 
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.                                          
.SUNDAY...                                                                      
AS A REX BLOCK SHARPENS ACROSS THE WEST COAST...TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY             
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS JET STREAM ENERGY DROPS SOUTHWARD               
ACROSS CENTRAL US. SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE                  
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD SURGE                
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY               
AND CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY AND SUNDAY              
NIGHT. CHANCES OF SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS AN ELEVATED FRONT EXPECTED TO                  
DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.                                                        
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                    
THIS PERIOD MAY BE THE START OF AN UPPER AIR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS             
REX BLOCK ACROSS WEST COAST BREAKS DOWN DUE TO WESTERLIES                       
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO                      
VALLEY...RUNNING AROUND 13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF DEC            
SO FAR...MAY MODERATE AS PERSISTENT COLD TROUGH EASES AND MOVES EAST            
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN MOVING EAST ACROSS               
THE PLAINS...THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS STORM FREE THIS PERIOD.                
WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK               
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS UPPER OHIO VALLEY. JSD                                 
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1150 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES               
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. THE LOW                
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF                 
MAINE THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA                
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON                     
SATURDAY THEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREAS ON               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                           
CURRENT HEADLINES TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                
MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION           
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST          
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NEW 12Z QPF GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/GFS WHICH           
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 240 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES                
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. THE LOW                
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF                 
MAINE THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA                
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON                     
SATURDAY THEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREAS ON               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... STILL DIFFS BETWEEN THE NAM               
AND GFS THOUGH NAM HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT W/ GFS GRADUALLY                    
TRENDING FURTHER N LAST FEW RUNS... USED A BLEND FOR POPS/QPF                   
WHICH RESULTED IN MINIMAL WARNING CRITERIA COASTAL ZNS W/ ADV                   
CRITERIA FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST ZNS... SO HAVE A HVY SNW WRNG ZNS                
29/30 AND A SNW ADV ZNS 15>17 FOR THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. SYSTEM A                 
FAST MOVER WHICH SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY                
MDNGT SO NOT XPCTNG THIS TO BE A MAJOR STORM ATTM... LGT SNOWS                  
SHOULD REACH FAR NRN MAINE BUT GRADIENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP STILL                
XPCTD TO BE QUITE SHARP FROM DOWNEAST INTO CENTRAL ZNS SO ANY                   
ACCUMS UP N SHOULD BE QUITE LGT...                                              
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                    
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH                  
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SNOW               
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS               
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EAST...COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ON                 
SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST                  
COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT LOW TO REMAIN TO OUR EAST                
AS IT TRACKS THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA. LOOKING FARTHER OUT... STORM                  
TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH COLD DRY WEATHER THE RULE.                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR TO START AT ALL TAF SITES ERLY THIS AM W/ CONDS DETERIORATING               
TO IFR AT KBGR BY ERLY AFTN W/ MVFR XPCTD AT THE REMAINING SITES                
BY LATER AFTN...                                                                
&&                                                                              
MARINE...                                                                       
HAVE OPTED TO GO W/ A GLW FOR A PERIOD FROM THIS EVE TIL ERLY SAT               
AM BASED ON SLIGHTLY FURTHER N TRACK AND TO MATCH UP BETTER W/ GYX              
LONG TERM: POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF                 
COLD FRONT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MEZ029-030 UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY.                     
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MEZ015>017 UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY.                          
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ050 FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.             
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...FITZSIMMONS                                                            
SHORT TERM/MARINE...KHW                                                         
LONG TERM/MARINE...FOSTER                                                       
AVIATION...SMF/KHW                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
427 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
...BRIEF SEVERE STORM E MA RI IS ENDING RAPIDLY NOW...                          
M1...347 PM.                                                                    
GUSTS 69-72 KTS BUZ BAY TO 44029...CAPE WIND TOWER REPORTED                     
(UNOFFICIAL) WEST WIND 64KTG81KT AT 3PM.  WIND INSTRUMENT 20M                   
ELEVATED...ABV THE NORMAL 10M OFFICIAL.  SITING LIKENS TO A CMAN                
ELEVATED OB.  WE HAVE LITTLE DOUBT 55 TO 70 KT NEAR SFC WINDS                   
ALREADY OBSERVED. HEARING MOORINGS SEPARATING.                                  
M2...424 PM                                                                     
DANGEROUS CONDS QUITTING ABRUPTLY NEXT 1 HR.                                    
NEAR BLIZ ALREADY ENDED BOS.                                                    
HEARD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BUZ BAY EARLIER.  TIDES HAS 2-3FT               
SURGE FOR 1 HR IN EXCESSIVE PRES FALL/RIDE COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH 2            
HR WIDE FURY THAT DEVELOPED PER EXCT NCEP MODEL COMBO NAM/GFS                   
LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT.                                                       
MANY REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ON CAPE COD.                                         
FULL AFD FROM ELEANOR AND NEAL SHORTLY                                          
REMAINDER BLO 158 PM.                                                           
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
WILD WINTER WEATHER HERE IN SNE...WITH SFC LOW UNDERGOING BOMOGENESIS           
IN RI SND AT 130 PM. SFC LOW WL MV QUICKLY E WITH LATEST ANALYSIS               
INDICATING 17 MB PRES DROP IN PAST 3 HRS CENTERED OVR ACK SND!                  
SIGNIFICANT WND SHIFT BEHIND THIS LOW WITH WNDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH               
ACRS ERN LI AND INTO CSTL RI. IN ADDITION BUOY S OF LI GUSTING TO 58            
KTS! THUS...HV EXPANDED WND ADV EWD INTO EAST COASTAL MA...INCLUDING            
BOSTON...CAPE ANN AND PYM COUNTY. STGST WNDS RI CST...INCLUDING BID             
AND EWD ACRS S.CST OF MA.                                                       
IN ADDITION...VIGOROUS COMMA HEAD DEVELOPING OVR ERN CT/RI AND ERN              
MA IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WITH UPPER LOW. GOOD CSI             
BANDING HAS MATERIALIZED WITH SVRL RPTS OF THUNDER SNOW ACRS THIS               
AREA. THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL YIELD A QUICK 3-5 INCHES OF SNFL IN NE            
CT/NW RI AND E OF ORH IN MA...INCLUDING HILLSBORO CNTY. FARTHER SE              
INTO I95 CORRIDOR...MIXED PRECIP WL CHANGE TO SN WITH AN ADDITIONAL             
2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP MVS OFSHR.               
STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A CHANGEOVER OF SN TO YIELD NEAR                 
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS FROM NOW (2 PM) TIL 4-5 PM IN THE PVD-BOS                  
CORRIDOR AND LKLY TIL 6-7PM SE OF I95. WOW...WHAT A STORM!                      
NOCERA                                                                          
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1100 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                             
..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN LOWER CT VALLEY               
TO SOUTHERN NH...                                                               
MESO/NEAR TERM UPDATE...                                                        
15Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING FROM ISLIP NY              
NORTHEAST ALONG LONG ISLAND...NEAR COASTAL RI...NORTHEAST TO NEW                
BEDFORD...NORTH TO BEVERLY. ALSO...A SURFACE TROF IS FORMING FROM               
THE LOW CENTER SOUTH OF ISLIP...NORTHWARD PAST NORTH ADAMS MA.  40              
KM NAM SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES FROM 15Z TO            
18Z...AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.                                                    
KALY RADAR SHOWING A DEVELOPING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH 30 TO EVEN              
40 DBZ REFLECTIVITY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BAND....UNDER SURFACE                
TROF AND WHERE SECONDARY BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WAS INDICATED.            
THUNDERSNOW REPORTED IN CHICOPEE AT 1050 AM...1/4SM S+ AT                       
HFD...BAF...CEF AND AQW. KEENE NH REPORTS 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SO              
FAR. AT THIS TIME...THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE                    
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE              
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN                
HOUR...AND ISOLATED 3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL...ARE EXPECTED UNDER 30            
TO 40 DBZ REFLECTIVITY.                                                         
FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KBOX RADAR PICKING UP ON BRIGHT              
BANDING...SOME MELTING OCCURRING ALOFT WITH REPORTS OF SLEET...RAIN             
..AND FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTH COASTAL MA AND COASTAL RI. MIX TO RAIN             
LINE WAS ALONG A KINGSTON...PVD...PYM TO NEAR BVY LINE. COASTAL                 
FRONT MAY PULL INLAND SOME OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MIX SUPPORTS                    
KEEPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE AT THIS TIME.                     
MARINE...                                                                       
MSAS INDICATING RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF UP TO 9 MB IN 3                 
HOURS...AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT.  PLAN TO MENTION GUSTS TO 55 KT IN             
OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE STORM WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.              
NBELK                                                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 920 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)...                                           
MESO/SHORT TERM UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...                                       
COMPLEX WINTER SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS AM...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD                 
CANAL TO I95 CORRIDOR WHERE CSTL FNT BEGINNING TO DVLP. PARENT SFC              
LOW OVR LK ONTARIO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN/FILL...WHILE CSTL LOW JUST E             
OF NJ BEGINS TO INTENSIFY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRES FALLS CENTERED JUST             
S. OF MONTAUK ON THE ORDER OF -8 MBS DURING THE PAST 3 HRS. THESE               
PRES FALLS WL GRADUALLY BACK SFC WNDS TO N-NE OVR THE AREA AS THE               
MORNING PROGRESSES...WHICH WL RETARD THE N MVMNT OF THE CSTL FNT AND            
MIXED PRECIP LINE.                                                              
THIS IS APPARENT IN THE 14Z SFC OBS...WITH SE WND AT BID AND NE WND             
AT GON AND WST. THE RESULT HERE IS FOR SUBFREEZING SFC LYR TO BE                
DELAYED MVG NWD FM CAPE COD CANAL TO I95. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS             
AREA...IS THAT SUFFICIENT WARMING/MELTING IS OCCURRING ABV THE SFC              
LYR (PER STG SE INFLOW ON KBOX VAD WND PROFILE) ACRS THIS AREA FOR SN           
TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND OR FREEZING RN...AS WST AND GON RPTG -FZRA ANS           
SVRL SPOTTER RPTG SLEET. ALSO...KBOX COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY PICKING            
UP ON THIS WELL...WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY OVR NARRAGANSETT BAY                   
INDICATING SLEET.                                                               
SO CURRENT FCST OF RN-SN LINE TRAVERSING NWWD INTO I95 CORRIDOR AND             
PSSBLY AS FAR NW AS I495 LKS GD. HWR...GIVEN LATEST TRENDS/CSTL FNT             
DVLPMNT AND STG PRES FALLS...SUBFREEZING SFC LYR WL BE DELAYED MVG              
NWD AND WL YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX OF FZRA AND SLEET FM CAPE COD             
CANAL INTO I95. THUS...WL UPDATED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT MIXED PTYPE               
TRANSITION...RATHER THAN A CLEAN PTYPE CHANGE FM SN TO RN.                      
INLAND...ESPECIALLY N OF THE MASS TURNPIKE AND NW OF I495 IT IS                 
FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...WITH PTYPE REMAINING ALL SNOW.                        
NO CHANGES TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE MOMENT. ALTH...WL HV TO WATCH           
TRENDS OF CSTL FNT ALONG WITH STG PRES FALLS OFF THE S.CST. IF CSTL             
FNT REMAINS FARTHER S...BLYR WRMG MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A                     
CHANGEOVER AND STG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE             
VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC COOLING PROCESSES. THEREFORE...COULD HAVE            
LESS MIXING IN FROM I495 TO I95 YIELDING HIER SN TOTALS. WL JUST HV             
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND AWAIT 12Z MDL GUID.                                       
NOCERA                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 500 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
MESO DISCUSSION AND 06Z MODEL UPDATE...                                         
SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO NYC AND JUST STARTED IN HARTFORD AS WELL AS               
BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS. KBOX RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF SNOW             
FROM MANCHESTER TO CAPE ANN AND OFFSHORE WHICH FOR MOST PART IS                 
ALOFT...BUT IT IS GIVING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN NH. YOU CAN           
SEE THE DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS VERY WELL ON KBOX RADAR TOO...                  
COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING             
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WE EXPECT SNOW TO REACH WORCESTER AND                  
PROVIDENCE BY 7 AM AND BOSTON AROUND 8 AM OR SO.                                
MODELS ARE TRENDING CLOSER WITH EACH RUN. 06Z NAM IS NOW A BIT                  
FARTHER S WITH ITS LOW TRACK...NOW FROM MONTAUK POINT TO CAPE COD               
BAY WITH GFS HOLDING FIRM ON ITS TRACK S OF NANTUCKET. OTHER                    
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 06Z RUC AND 06Z 10KM BOX ETA PREFER A                
TRACK CLOSER TO NAM...BUT THIS JUST SEEMS A BIT TOO FAR N TO US. ONE            
THING WE NOTICED IS NAM IS STILL A BIT SLOWER...AND BRINGS BEST LIFT            
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...SO              
WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY FOR              
HARTFORD TO WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE CORRIDOR WHERE SNOWFLAKE                     
PRODUCTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.                                                   
WE HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS STRONG LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE            
ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN BOSTON AREA. IT            
STILL APPEARS WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN IN PROVIDENCE AND SE             
MA. BOSTON MAY VERY WELL END UP SEEING MORE OF A MIX AS OPPOSED TO A            
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD NAM VERIFY...BUT A PROLONGED SE WIND USUALLY              
KILLS THE SNOWFLAKES IN BOSTON.                                                 
ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE SO FAR IS WHAT'S BEEN GOING ON               
UPSTREAM ACROSS MID ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FROM WASHINGTON DC INTO               
PA WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES AND             
EVEN THUNDER! THIS SHOULD ALL COME OUR WAY LATER THIS MORNING AND               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
JWD                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 335 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
WE ARE KEEPING ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR SNOW TODAY...           
BUT WILL TRIM AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD             
SERVE AS OUR TRANSITION ZONE. TOTALS ACROSS INTERIOR LOOK GOOD. WE              
WILL ALSO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS TO           
A HIGH WIND WARNING.                                                            
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND                
EASTERN PA...NOTE HOW QUICKLY VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/2SM OR LESS AS             
SNOW BEGINS! ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO                    
OVERCOME...IT WON'T TAKE LONG TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SUCH A                
POTENT SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP. WE EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN CT VALLEY             
AROUND SUNRISE (PROBABLY 6 AM) AND QUICKLY HEAD TO E MA COAST DURING            
MORNING RUSH HOUR (8-9 AM)...PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.                         
00Z NAM STILL FARTHEST N OF MODELS THIS MORNING...BUT 00Z GFS                   
CONTINUES ITS TREND OF EDGING FARTHER N WITH EACH RUN...NOW TAKING              
SECONDARY LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET. IT AGREES WELL WITH ITS 00Z                 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MATCHES WELL WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE ALSO LOOKED            
AT 00Z NGM...AND IT ACTUALLY PRESENTS A DECENT SOLUTION. ITS SURFACE            
LOW IS SIMILAR TO GFS...BUT WE LIKE ITS 24HR QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00"               
WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN NAM/GFS. OFTEN WE LIKE TO SEE NGM ON BOARD             
WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF BEFORE JUMPING ON A BIG EVENT...AND SINCE WE               
HAVE HAD DOUBTS AS TO EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS SHOWN ON PAST RUNS OF               
NAM/GFS THIS LEADS MORE CREDENCE TO FACT THAT THOSE TWO MODELS ARE              
PROBABLY OVERDOING IT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS             
SYSTEM AS UPPER LOW DOES NOT CUTOFF UNTIL IT PASSES CAPE COD.                   
SO IF WE ADJUST OUR TRACK TO JUST INSIDE 40/70 BENCHMARK...IT WOULD             
PLACE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR FROM NORTHERN CT INTO              
CENTRAL/INTERIOR NE MA AND SW NH. CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW                     
TREMENDOUS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION WITH EXCELLENT                
POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION/MESOSCALE BANDING. THIS IS ALSO              
ZONE OF MAXIMUM SNOW GROWTH. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO MAKING THIS A              
BLOCKBUSTER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE SPEED OF SYSTEM...SO ALTHOUGH IT'S            
GOING TO SNOW HARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY                
AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2" PER HOUR...IT SHOULD NOT LAST               
LONG ENOUGH TO GIVE WIDESPREAD TOTALS OVER 10". WE'LL PROBABLY GET              
SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING REPORTS WITH THIS AS WELL.                               
CLOSER TO COAST...WE NEED TO DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WE HAVE            
NO BLOCKING HIGH TO NORTH TO KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED IN AT LOW LEVELS.             
WINDS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO TURN SE LATER THIS                               
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE MODELS SHOW 1000 MB AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS               
TURNING W...NOT A GOOD SIGN TO KEEP IT COLD. GFS CROSS SECTIONS MAY             
BE A LITTLE TOO WARM...INDICATING A CHANGE TO RAIN AS FAR INLAND AS             
I-495 IN EASTERN MA AND INTO NW RI. WE THINK IT IS MORE REALISTIC               
THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE (IE RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL END UP NEAR I-95               
BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE AND PROBABLY AS FAR N AS CAPE ANN. A              
COMPLETE CHANGE TO RAIN SEEMS MOST LIKELY WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE              
COAST FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...THEN ACROSS SE MA NEAR TAUNTON AND              
INTO PROVIDENCE.                                                                
THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL NUDGE STORM TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE             
LOCATIONS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SE MIDDLESEX AND W NORFOLK COUNTIES IN A           
LOW-END WINTER STORM WARNING AND THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...AS WE            
THINK PLACES ALONG ROUTE 128 FROM WOBURN AND BELMONT TO NEWTON AND              
DEDHAM WILL SEE THE 4-5" AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND SUCH AS           
LEXINGTON AND ESPECIALLY MEDWAY AND BELLINGHAM WILL SEE THE 6-8"                
TOTALS. IN THOSE ZONES WHERE WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WE             
WILL GENERALLY HAVE 2-4" TOTALS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN COASTAL            
ESSEX COUNTY MA (ZONE 7)...WHERE WE EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN TOTALS...            
FROM 2" ON COASTLINE TO AS MUCH AS 7-8" NEAR NH BORDER. BUT AVERAGE             
IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING THERE.                                  
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO MERRIMACK VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON           
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE BACK ACROSS CT VALLEY. STRONGEST LIFT             
IS HEADING QUICKLY FOR COAST BY MID AFTERNOON...SO WE THINK MANY                
LOCATIONS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 3 OR 4 PM EXCEPT FOR CAPE            
COD AND ISLANDS.                                                                
MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES WIND. SURFACE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF               
CAPE COD WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGHOUT ALL OF                 
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IF WE TAKE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR                
HYANNIS AND NANTUCKET AT FACE VALUE IT SHOWS A STRONG POTENTIAL OF              
50-60KT GUSTS AS THIS DEEPENING OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. WE THINK THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WE HAVE ENOUGH                
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WIND ADVISORY              
WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR S COAST...EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON 40KT              
GUSTS THERE IS LESS. ADVISORIES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR E MA             
COASTLINE BUT RIGHT NOW WE THINK WE WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA                 
THERE.                                                                          
CLEARING SHOULD WORK IN RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW             
RAPID DRYING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH               
GRADUALLY UNTIL SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE.                                  
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
OVERALL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST                  
THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION SATURDAY IN WAKE OF                     
DEPARTING STORM.  SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS                
BACK AS CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD             
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA            
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. COLD AIR            
ADVECTION ACROSS REGION COULD YIELD SHOWERS OVER OUTER WATERS                   
CLIPPING CAPE AND ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST               
FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND RESULTING N TO NW WINDS OVER CAPE COULD               
YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING                  
THROUGH THE COLUMN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...THEN REGION               
AWAITS NEXT POTENTIAL NOREASTER FOR FRIDAY.                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR FOR THE MOMENT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR NANTUCKET WHICH              
WILL SPREAD ONTO S COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL                    
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING TO IFR AS SNOW ARRIVES (THEN TO LIFR           
WITHIN 2 HOURS OF THAT)...CURRENTLY TIMED INTO CT VALLEY TOWARD                 
SUNRISE AND BEFORE MID MORNING ALONG E MA COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT           
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THEN WE                
EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PULLS              
OFF THE COAST.                                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
WE WILL EXPAND STORM WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE CAPE COD BAY            
AND NANTUCKET SOUND...AND MAINTAIN GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE AS WINDS             
INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION             
AS TO HOW FAST THE LOW WILL DEEPEN...IMPACTING WIND GUST POTENTIAL...           
BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY IT WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAPE COD RATHER             
THAN FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS              
SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER AWAY.                                                      
FOLLOWED WNA WAVE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER GIVEN PREVAILING WEST TO                   
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASED SEAS IN BUZZARDS                
BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR              
OUTER WATERS AND ALONG SOUTH COAST...ALL DUE TO WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS            
AND ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                      
CLIMATE...                                                                      
FYI...RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...                  
KBOS... 4.6 INCHES IN 1978                                                      
KPVD... 3.0 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
KORH... 8.0 INCHES IN 1903                                                      
KBDL... 4.2 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                       
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.               
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAZ005-006-013-014-026 UNTIL 5 PM                 
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019>021 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.              
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-015>019 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.              
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAZ022>024 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.                      
NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ012-015 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                     
RI...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR RIZ001 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RIZ002>005 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                  
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ006>008 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.                          
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.                   
  ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NOCERA/EVT/NMB                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
347 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
...BOMOGENESIS OCCURRING E OF CAPE COD ALNG WITH THUNDER SNOW IN                
BLOSSOMING COMMA HEAD MA COAST EASTWARD...                                      
M1...347 PM.                                                                    
GUSTS 69-72 KTS BUZ BAY TO 44029...CAPE WIND TOWER REPORTED                     
(UNOFFICIAL) WEST WIND 64KTG81KT AT 3PM.  WIND INSTRUMENT 20M                   
ELEVATED...ABV THE NORMAL 10M OFFICIAL.  SITING LIKENS TO A CMAN                
ELEVATED OB.  WE HAVE LITTLE DOUBT 55 TO 70 KT NEAR SFC WINDS                   
ALREADY OBSERVED. HEARING MOORINGS SEPARATING.                                  
DANGEROUS CONDS QUITTING ABRUPTLY NEXT 3 HRS. BRIEF BLIZ CONDS E MA             
COAST WILL END                                                                  
HEARD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BUZ BAY EARLIER.                                
REMAINDER BLO 158 PM.                                                           
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
WILD WINTER WEATHER HERE IN SNE...WITH SFC LOW UNDERGOING BOMOGENESIS           
IN RI SND AT 130 PM. SFC LOW WL MV QUICKLY E WITH LATEST ANALYSIS               
INDICATING 17 MB PRES DROP IN PAST 3 HRS CENTERED OVR ACK SND!                  
SIGNIFICANT WND SHIFT BEHIND THIS LOW WITH WNDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH               
ACRS ERN LI AND INTO CSTL RI. IN ADDITION BUOY S OF LI GUSTING TO 58            
KTS! THUS...HV EXPANDED WND ADV EWD INTO EAST COASTAL MA...INCLUDING            
BOSTON...CAPE ANN AND PYM COUNTY. STGST WNDS RI CST...INCLUDING BID             
AND EWD ACRS S.CST OF MA.                                                       
IN ADDITION...VIGOROUS COMMA HEAD DEVELOPING OVR ERN CT/RI AND ERN              
MA IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WITH UPPER LOW. GOOD CSI             
BANDING HAS MATERIALIZED WITH SVRL RPTS OF THUNDER SNOW ACRS THIS               
AREA. THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL YIELD A QUICK 3-5 INCHES OF SNFL IN NE            
CT/NW RI AND E OF ORH IN MA...INCLUDING HILLSBORO CNTY. FARTHER SE              
INTO I95 CORRIDOR...MIXED PRECIP WL CHANGE TO SN WITH AN ADDITIONAL             
2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP MVS OFSHR.               
STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A CHANGEOVER OF SN TO YIELD NEAR                 
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS FROM NOW (2 PM) TIL 4-5 PM IN THE PVD-BOS                  
CORRIDOR AND LKLY TIL 6-7PM SE OF I95. WOW...WHAT A STORM!                      
NOCERA                                                                          
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1100 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                             
..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN LOWER CT VALLEY               
TO SOUTHERN NH...                                                               
MESO/NEAR TERM UPDATE...                                                        
15Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING FROM ISLIP NY              
NORTHEAST ALONG LONG ISLAND...NEAR COASTAL RI...NORTHEAST TO NEW                
BEDFORD...NORTH TO BEVERLY. ALSO...A SURFACE TROF IS FORMING FROM               
THE LOW CENTER SOUTH OF ISLIP...NORTHWARD PAST NORTH ADAMS MA.  40              
KM NAM SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES FROM 15Z TO            
18Z...AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.                                                    
KALY RADAR SHOWING A DEVELOPING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH 30 TO EVEN              
40 DBZ REFLECTIVITY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BAND....UNDER SURFACE                
TROF AND WHERE SECONDARY BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WAS INDICATED.            
THUNDERSNOW REPORTED IN CHICOPEE AT 1050 AM...1/4SM S+ AT                       
HFD...BAF...CEF AND AQW. KEENE NH REPORTS 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SO              
FAR. AT THIS TIME...THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE                    
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE              
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN                
HOUR...AND ISOLATED 3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL...ARE EXPECTED UNDER 30            
TO 40 DBZ REFLECTIVITY.                                                         
FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KBOX RADAR PICKING UP ON BRIGHT              
BANDING...SOME MELTING OCCURRING ALOFT WITH REPORTS OF SLEET...RAIN             
..AND FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTH COASTAL MA AND COASTAL RI. MIX TO RAIN             
LINE WAS ALONG A KINGSTON...PVD...PYM TO NEAR BVY LINE. COASTAL                 
FRONT MAY PULL INLAND SOME OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MIX SUPPORTS                    
KEEPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE AT THIS TIME.                     
MARINE...                                                                       
MSAS INDICATING RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF UP TO 9 MB IN 3                 
HOURS...AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT.  PLAN TO MENTION GUSTS TO 55 KT IN             
OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE STORM WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.              
NBELK                                                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 920 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)...                                           
MESO/SHORT TERM UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...                                       
COMPLEX WINTER SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS AM...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD                 
CANAL TO I95 CORRIDOR WHERE CSTL FNT BEGINNING TO DVLP. PARENT SFC              
LOW OVR LK ONTARIO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN/FILL...WHILE CSTL LOW JUST E             
OF NJ BEGINS TO INTENSIFY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRES FALLS CENTERED JUST             
S. OF MONTAUK ON THE ORDER OF -8 MBS DURING THE PAST 3 HRS. THESE               
PRES FALLS WL GRADUALLY BACK SFC WNDS TO N-NE OVR THE AREA AS THE               
MORNING PROGRESSES...WHICH WL RETARD THE N MVMNT OF THE CSTL FNT AND            
MIXED PRECIP LINE.                                                              
THIS IS APPARENT IN THE 14Z SFC OBS...WITH SE WND AT BID AND NE WND             
AT GON AND WST. THE RESULT HERE IS FOR SUBFREEZING SFC LYR TO BE                
DELAYED MVG NWD FM CAPE COD CANAL TO I95. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS             
AREA...IS THAT SUFFICIENT WARMING/MELTING IS OCCURRING ABV THE SFC              
LYR (PER STG SE INFLOW ON KBOX VAD WND PROFILE) ACRS THIS AREA FOR SN           
TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND OR FREEZING RN...AS WST AND GON RPTG -FZRA ANS           
SVRL SPOTTER RPTG SLEET. ALSO...KBOX COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY PICKING            
UP ON THIS WELL...WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY OVR NARRAGANSETT BAY                   
INDICATING SLEET.                                                               
SO CURRENT FCST OF RN-SN LINE TRAVERSING NWWD INTO I95 CORRIDOR AND             
PSSBLY AS FAR NW AS I495 LKS GD. HWR...GIVEN LATEST TRENDS/CSTL FNT             
DVLPMNT AND STG PRES FALLS...SUBFREEZING SFC LYR WL BE DELAYED MVG              
NWD AND WL YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX OF FZRA AND SLEET FM CAPE COD             
CANAL INTO I95. THUS...WL UPDATED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT MIXED PTYPE               
TRANSITION...RATHER THAN A CLEAN PTYPE CHANGE FM SN TO RN.                      
INLAND...ESPECIALLY N OF THE MASS TURNPIKE AND NW OF I495 IT IS                 
FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...WITH PTYPE REMAINING ALL SNOW.                        
NO CHANGES TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE MOMENT. ALTH...WL HV TO WATCH           
TRENDS OF CSTL FNT ALONG WITH STG PRES FALLS OFF THE S.CST. IF CSTL             
FNT REMAINS FARTHER S...BLYR WRMG MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A                     
CHANGEOVER AND STG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE             
VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC COOLING PROCESSES. THEREFORE...COULD HAVE            
LESS MIXING IN FROM I495 TO I95 YIELDING HIER SN TOTALS. WL JUST HV             
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND AWAIT 12Z MDL GUID.                                       
NOCERA                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 500 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
MESO DISCUSSION AND 06Z MODEL UPDATE...                                         
SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO NYC AND JUST STARTED IN HARTFORD AS WELL AS               
BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS. KBOX RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF SNOW             
FROM MANCHESTER TO CAPE ANN AND OFFSHORE WHICH FOR MOST PART IS                 
ALOFT...BUT IT IS GIVING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN NH. YOU CAN           
SEE THE DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS VERY WELL ON KBOX RADAR TOO...                  
COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING             
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WE EXPECT SNOW TO REACH WORCESTER AND                  
PROVIDENCE BY 7 AM AND BOSTON AROUND 8 AM OR SO.                                
MODELS ARE TRENDING CLOSER WITH EACH RUN. 06Z NAM IS NOW A BIT                  
FARTHER S WITH ITS LOW TRACK...NOW FROM MONTAUK POINT TO CAPE COD               
BAY WITH GFS HOLDING FIRM ON ITS TRACK S OF NANTUCKET. OTHER                    
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 06Z RUC AND 06Z 10KM BOX ETA PREFER A                
TRACK CLOSER TO NAM...BUT THIS JUST SEEMS A BIT TOO FAR N TO US. ONE            
THING WE NOTICED IS NAM IS STILL A BIT SLOWER...AND BRINGS BEST LIFT            
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...SO              
WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY FOR              
HARTFORD TO WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE CORRIDOR WHERE SNOWFLAKE                     
PRODUCTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.                                                   
WE HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS STRONG LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE            
ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN BOSTON AREA. IT            
STILL APPEARS WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN IN PROVIDENCE AND SE             
MA. BOSTON MAY VERY WELL END UP SEEING MORE OF A MIX AS OPPOSED TO A            
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD NAM VERIFY...BUT A PROLONGED SE WIND USUALLY              
KILLS THE SNOWFLAKES IN BOSTON.                                                 
ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE SO FAR IS WHAT'S BEEN GOING ON               
UPSTREAM ACROSS MID ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FROM WASHINGTON DC INTO               
PA WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES AND             
EVEN THUNDER! THIS SHOULD ALL COME OUR WAY LATER THIS MORNING AND               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
JWD                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 335 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
WE ARE KEEPING ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR SNOW TODAY...           
BUT WILL TRIM AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD             
SERVE AS OUR TRANSITION ZONE. TOTALS ACROSS INTERIOR LOOK GOOD. WE              
WILL ALSO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS TO           
A HIGH WIND WARNING.                                                            
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND                
EASTERN PA...NOTE HOW QUICKLY VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/2SM OR LESS AS             
SNOW BEGINS! ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO                    
OVERCOME...IT WON'T TAKE LONG TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SUCH A                
POTENT SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP. WE EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN CT VALLEY             
AROUND SUNRISE (PROBABLY 6 AM) AND QUICKLY HEAD TO E MA COAST DURING            
MORNING RUSH HOUR (8-9 AM)...PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.                         
00Z NAM STILL FARTHEST N OF MODELS THIS MORNING...BUT 00Z GFS                   
CONTINUES ITS TREND OF EDGING FARTHER N WITH EACH RUN...NOW TAKING              
SECONDARY LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET. IT AGREES WELL WITH ITS 00Z                 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MATCHES WELL WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE ALSO LOOKED            
AT 00Z NGM...AND IT ACTUALLY PRESENTS A DECENT SOLUTION. ITS SURFACE            
LOW IS SIMILAR TO GFS...BUT WE LIKE ITS 24HR QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00"               
WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN NAM/GFS. OFTEN WE LIKE TO SEE NGM ON BOARD             
WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF BEFORE JUMPING ON A BIG EVENT...AND SINCE WE               
HAVE HAD DOUBTS AS TO EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS SHOWN ON PAST RUNS OF               
NAM/GFS THIS LEADS MORE CREDENCE TO FACT THAT THOSE TWO MODELS ARE              
PROBABLY OVERDOING IT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS             
SYSTEM AS UPPER LOW DOES NOT CUTOFF UNTIL IT PASSES CAPE COD.                   
SO IF WE ADJUST OUR TRACK TO JUST INSIDE 40/70 BENCHMARK...IT WOULD             
PLACE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR FROM NORTHERN CT INTO              
CENTRAL/INTERIOR NE MA AND SW NH. CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW                     
TREMENDOUS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION WITH EXCELLENT                
POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION/MESOSCALE BANDING. THIS IS ALSO              
ZONE OF MAXIMUM SNOW GROWTH. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO MAKING THIS A              
BLOCKBUSTER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE SPEED OF SYSTEM...SO ALTHOUGH IT'S            
GOING TO SNOW HARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY                
AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2" PER HOUR...IT SHOULD NOT LAST               
LONG ENOUGH TO GIVE WIDESPREAD TOTALS OVER 10". WE'LL PROBABLY GET              
SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING REPORTS WITH THIS AS WELL.                               
CLOSER TO COAST...WE NEED TO DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WE HAVE            
NO BLOCKING HIGH TO NORTH TO KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED IN AT LOW LEVELS.             
WINDS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO TURN SE LATER THIS                               
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE MODELS SHOW 1000 MB AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS               
TURNING W...NOT A GOOD SIGN TO KEEP IT COLD. GFS CROSS SECTIONS MAY             
BE A LITTLE TOO WARM...INDICATING A CHANGE TO RAIN AS FAR INLAND AS             
I-495 IN EASTERN MA AND INTO NW RI. WE THINK IT IS MORE REALISTIC               
THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE (IE RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL END UP NEAR I-95               
BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE AND PROBABLY AS FAR N AS CAPE ANN. A              
COMPLETE CHANGE TO RAIN SEEMS MOST LIKELY WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE              
COAST FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...THEN ACROSS SE MA NEAR TAUNTON AND              
INTO PROVIDENCE.                                                                
THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL NUDGE STORM TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE             
LOCATIONS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SE MIDDLESEX AND W NORFOLK COUNTIES IN A           
LOW-END WINTER STORM WARNING AND THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...AS WE            
THINK PLACES ALONG ROUTE 128 FROM WOBURN AND BELMONT TO NEWTON AND              
DEDHAM WILL SEE THE 4-5" AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND SUCH AS           
LEXINGTON AND ESPECIALLY MEDWAY AND BELLINGHAM WILL SEE THE 6-8"                
TOTALS. IN THOSE ZONES WHERE WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WE             
WILL GENERALLY HAVE 2-4" TOTALS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN COASTAL            
ESSEX COUNTY MA (ZONE 7)...WHERE WE EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN TOTALS...            
FROM 2" ON COASTLINE TO AS MUCH AS 7-8" NEAR NH BORDER. BUT AVERAGE             
IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING THERE.                                  
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO MERRIMACK VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON           
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE BACK ACROSS CT VALLEY. STRONGEST LIFT             
IS HEADING QUICKLY FOR COAST BY MID AFTERNOON...SO WE THINK MANY                
LOCATIONS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 3 OR 4 PM EXCEPT FOR CAPE            
COD AND ISLANDS.                                                                
MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES WIND. SURFACE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF               
CAPE COD WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGHOUT ALL OF                 
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IF WE TAKE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR                
HYANNIS AND NANTUCKET AT FACE VALUE IT SHOWS A STRONG POTENTIAL OF              
50-60KT GUSTS AS THIS DEEPENING OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. WE THINK THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WE HAVE ENOUGH                
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WIND ADVISORY              
WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR S COAST...EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON 40KT              
GUSTS THERE IS LESS. ADVISORIES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR E MA             
COASTLINE BUT RIGHT NOW WE THINK WE WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA                 
THERE.                                                                          
CLEARING SHOULD WORK IN RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW             
RAPID DRYING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH               
GRADUALLY UNTIL SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE.                                  
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
OVERALL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST                  
THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION SATURDAY IN WAKE OF                     
DEPARTING STORM.  SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS                
BACK AS CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD             
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA            
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. COLD AIR            
ADVECTION ACROSS REGION COULD YIELD SHOWERS OVER OUTER WATERS                   
CLIPPING CAPE AND ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST               
FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND RESULTING N TO NW WINDS OVER CAPE COULD               
YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING                  
THROUGH THE COLUMN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...THEN REGION               
AWAITS NEXT POTENTIAL NOREASTER FOR FRIDAY.                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR FOR THE MOMENT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR NANTUCKET WHICH              
WILL SPREAD ONTO S COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL                    
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING TO IFR AS SNOW ARRIVES (THEN TO LIFR           
WITHIN 2 HOURS OF THAT)...CURRENTLY TIMED INTO CT VALLEY TOWARD                 
SUNRISE AND BEFORE MID MORNING ALONG E MA COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT           
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THEN WE                
EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PULLS              
OFF THE COAST.                                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
WE WILL EXPAND STORM WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE CAPE COD BAY            
AND NANTUCKET SOUND...AND MAINTAIN GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE AS WINDS             
INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION             
AS TO HOW FAST THE LOW WILL DEEPEN...IMPACTING WIND GUST POTENTIAL...           
BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY IT WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAPE COD RATHER             
THAN FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS              
SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER AWAY.                                                      
FOLLOWED WNA WAVE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER GIVEN PREVAILING WEST TO                   
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASED SEAS IN BUZZARDS                
BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR              
OUTER WATERS AND ALONG SOUTH COAST...ALL DUE TO WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS            
AND ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                      
CLIMATE...                                                                      
FYI...RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...                  
KBOS... 4.6 INCHES IN 1978                                                      
KPVD... 3.0 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
KORH... 8.0 INCHES IN 1903                                                      
KBDL... 4.2 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                       
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.               
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAZ005-006-013-014-026 UNTIL 5 PM                 
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019>021 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.              
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-015>019 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.              
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAZ022>024 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.                      
NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ012-015 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                     
RI...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR RIZ001 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RIZ002>005 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                  
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ006>008 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.                          
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.                   
  ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NOCERA/EVT/NMB                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
158 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
...BOMOGENESIS OCCURRING IN RI SND ALNG WITH THUNDER SNOW IN                    
BLOSSOMING COMMA HEAD...                                                        
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
WILD WINTER WEATHER HERE IN SNE...WITH SFC LOW UNDERGOING BOMOGENESIS           
IN RI SND AT 130 PM. SFC LOW WL MV QUICKLY E WITH LATEST ANALYSIS               
INDICATING 17 MB PRES DROP IN PAST 3 HRS CENTERED OVR ACK SND!                  
SIGNIFICANT WND SHIFT BEHIND THIS LOW WITH WNDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH ACRS          
ERN LI AND INTO CSTL RI. IN ADDITION BUOY S OF LI GUSTING TO 58 KTS!            
THUS...HV EXPANDED WND ADV EWD INTO EAST COASTAL MA...INCLUDING                 
BOSTON...CAPE ANN AND PYM COUNTY. STGST WNDS RI CST...INCLUDING BID             
AND EWD ACRS S.CST OF MA.                                                       
IN ADDITION...VIGOROUS COMMA HEAD DEVELOPING OVR ERN CT/RI AND ERN MA IN        
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WITH UPPER LOW. GOOD CSI BANDING           
HAS MATERIALIZED WITH SVRL RPTS OF THUNDER SNOW ACRS THIS AREA.                 
THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WL YIELD A QUICK 3-5 INCHES OF SNFL IN NE CT/NW            
RI AND E OF ORH IN MA...INCLUDING HILLSBORO CNTY. FARTHER SE INTO I95           
CORRIDOR...MIXED PRECIP WL CHANGE TO SN WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES           
OF ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP MVS OFSHR. STRONG WINDS             
WILL COMBINE WITH A CHANGEOVER OF SN TO YIELD NEAR WHITE OUT                    
CONDITIONS FROM NOW (2 PM) TIL 4-5 PM IN THE PVD-BOS CORRIDOR AND               
LKLY TIL 6-7PM SE OF I95. WOW...WHAT A STORM!                                   
NOCERA                                                                          
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1100 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                             
..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN LOWER CT VALLEY               
TO SOUTHERN NH...                                                               
MESO/NEAR TERM UPDATE...                                                        
15Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING FROM ISLIP NY              
NORTHEAST ALONG LONG ISLAND...NEAR COASTAL RI...NORTHEAST TO NEW                
BEDFORD...NORTH TO BEVERLY. ALSO...A SURFACE TROF IS FORMING FROM               
THE LOW CENTER SOUTH OF ISLIP...NORTHWARD PAST NORTH ADAMS MA.  40              
KM NAM SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES FROM 15Z TO            
18Z...AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.                                                    
KALY RADAR SHOWING A DEVELOPING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH 30 TO EVEN              
40 DBZ REFLECTIVITY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BAND....UNDER SURFACE                
TROF AND WHERE SECONDARY BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WAS INDICATED.            
THUNDERSNOW REPORTED IN CHICOPEE AT 1050 AM...1/4SM S+ AT                       
HFD...BAF...CEF AND AQW. KEENE NH REPORTS 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SO              
FAR. AT THIS TIME...THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE                    
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE              
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN                
HOUR...AND ISOLATED 3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL...ARE EXPECTED UNDER 30            
TO 40 DBZ REFLECTIVITY.                                                         
FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KBOX RADAR PICKING UP ON BRIGHT              
BANDING...SOME MELTING OCCURRING ALOFT WITH REPORTS OF SLEET...RAIN             
..AND FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTH COASTAL MA AND COASTAL RI. MIX TO RAIN             
LINE WAS ALONG A KINGSTON...PVD...PYM TO NEAR BVY LINE. COASTAL                 
FRONT MAY PULL INLAND SOME OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MIX SUPPORTS                    
KEEPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE AT THIS TIME.                     
MARINE...                                                                       
MSAS INDICATING RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF UP TO 9 MB IN 3                 
HOURS...AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT.  PLAN TO MENTION GUSTS TO 55 KT IN             
OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WHERE STORM WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.              
NBELK                                                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 920 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)...                                           
MESO/SHORT TERM UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...                                       
COMPLEX WINTER SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS AM...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD                 
CANAL TO I95 CORRIDOR WHERE CSTL FNT BEGINNING TO DVLP. PARENT SFC              
LOW OVR LK ONTARIO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN/FILL...WHILE CSTL LOW JUST E             
OF NJ BEGINS TO INTENSIFY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRES FALLS CENTERED JUST             
S. OF MONTAUK ON THE ORDER OF -8 MBS DURING THE PAST 3 HRS. THESE               
PRES FALLS WL GRADUALLY BACK SFC WNDS TO N-NE OVR THE AREA AS THE               
MORNING PROGRESSES...WHICH WL RETARD THE N MVMNT OF THE CSTL FNT AND            
MIXED PRECIP LINE.                                                              
THIS IS APPARENT IN THE 14Z SFC OBS...WITH SE WND AT BID AND NE WND             
AT GON AND WST. THE RESULT HERE IS FOR SUBFREEZING SFC LYR TO BE                
DELAYED MVG NWD FM CAPE COD CANAL TO I95. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS             
AREA...IS THAT SUFFICIENT WARMING/MELTING IS OCCURRING ABV THE SFC              
LYR (PER STG SE INFLOW ON KBOX VAD WND PROFILE) ACRS THIS AREA FOR SN           
TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND OR FREEZING RN...AS WST AND GON RPTG -FZRA ANS           
SVRL SPOTTER RPTG SLEET. ALSO...KBOX COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY PICKING            
UP ON THIS WELL...WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY OVR NARRAGANSETT BAY                   
INDICATING SLEET.                                                               
SO CURRENT FCST OF RN-SN LINE TRAVERSING NWWD INTO I95 CORRIDOR AND             
PSSBLY AS FAR NW AS I495 LKS GD. HWR...GIVEN LATEST TRENDS/CSTL FNT             
DVLPMNT AND STG PRES FALLS...SUBFREEZING SFC LYR WL BE DELAYED MVG              
NWD AND WL YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX OF FZRA AND SLEET FM CAPE COD             
CANAL INTO I95. THUS...WL UPDATED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT MIXED PTYPE               
TRANSITION...RATHER THAN A CLEAN PTYPE CHANGE FM SN TO RN.                      
INLAND...ESPECIALLY N OF THE MASS TURNPIKE AND NW OF I495 IT IS                 
FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...WITH PTYPE REMAINING ALL SNOW.                        
NO CHANGES TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE MOMENT. ALTH...WL HV TO WATCH           
TRENDS OF CSTL FNT ALONG WITH STG PRES FALLS OFF THE S.CST. IF CSTL             
FNT REMAINS FARTHER S...BLYR WRMG MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A                     
CHANGEOVER AND STG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE             
VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC COOLING PROCESSES. THEREFORE...COULD HAVE            
LESS MIXING IN FROM I495 TO I95 YIELDING HIER SN TOTALS. WL JUST HV             
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND AWAIT 12Z MDL GUID.                                       
NOCERA                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 500 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
MESO DISCUSSION AND 06Z MODEL UPDATE...                                         
SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO NYC AND JUST STARTED IN HARTFORD AS WELL AS               
BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS. KBOX RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF SNOW             
FROM MANCHESTER TO CAPE ANN AND OFFSHORE WHICH FOR MOST PART IS                 
ALOFT...BUT IT IS GIVING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN NH. YOU CAN           
SEE THE DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS VERY WELL ON KBOX RADAR TOO...                  
COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING             
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WE EXPECT SNOW TO REACH WORCESTER AND                  
PROVIDENCE BY 7 AM AND BOSTON AROUND 8 AM OR SO.                                
MODELS ARE TRENDING CLOSER WITH EACH RUN. 06Z NAM IS NOW A BIT                  
FARTHER S WITH ITS LOW TRACK...NOW FROM MONTAUK POINT TO CAPE COD               
BAY WITH GFS HOLDING FIRM ON ITS TRACK S OF NANTUCKET. OTHER                    
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 06Z RUC AND 06Z 10KM BOX ETA PREFER A                
TRACK CLOSER TO NAM...BUT THIS JUST SEEMS A BIT TOO FAR N TO US. ONE            
THING WE NOTICED IS NAM IS STILL A BIT SLOWER...AND BRINGS BEST LIFT            
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...SO              
WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY FOR              
HARTFORD TO WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE CORRIDOR WHERE SNOWFLAKE                     
PRODUCTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.                                                   
WE HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS STRONG LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE            
ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN BOSTON AREA. IT            
STILL APPEARS WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN IN PROVIDENCE AND SE             
MA. BOSTON MAY VERY WELL END UP SEEING MORE OF A MIX AS OPPOSED TO A            
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD NAM VERIFY...BUT A PROLONGED SE WIND USUALLY              
KILLS THE SNOWFLAKES IN BOSTON.                                                 
ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE SO FAR IS WHAT'S BEEN GOING ON               
UPSTREAM ACROSS MID ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FROM WASHINGTON DC INTO               
PA WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES AND             
EVEN THUNDER! THIS SHOULD ALL COME OUR WAY LATER THIS MORNING AND               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
JWD                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 335 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
WE ARE KEEPING ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR SNOW TODAY...           
BUT WILL TRIM AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD             
SERVE AS OUR TRANSITION ZONE. TOTALS ACROSS INTERIOR LOOK GOOD. WE              
WILL ALSO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS TO           
A HIGH WIND WARNING.                                                            
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND                
EASTERN PA...NOTE HOW QUICKLY VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/2SM OR LESS AS             
SNOW BEGINS! ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO                    
OVERCOME...IT WON'T TAKE LONG TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SUCH A                
POTENT SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP. WE EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN CT VALLEY             
AROUND SUNRISE (PROBABLY 6 AM) AND QUICKLY HEAD TO E MA COAST DURING            
MORNING RUSH HOUR (8-9 AM)...PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.                         
00Z NAM STILL FARTHEST N OF MODELS THIS MORNING...BUT 00Z GFS                   
CONTINUES ITS TREND OF EDGING FARTHER N WITH EACH RUN...NOW TAKING              
SECONDARY LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET. IT AGREES WELL WITH ITS 00Z                 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MATCHES WELL WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE ALSO LOOKED            
AT 00Z NGM...AND IT ACTUALLY PRESENTS A DECENT SOLUTION. ITS SURFACE            
LOW IS SIMILAR TO GFS...BUT WE LIKE ITS 24HR QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00"               
WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN NAM/GFS. OFTEN WE LIKE TO SEE NGM ON BOARD             
WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF BEFORE JUMPING ON A BIG EVENT...AND SINCE WE               
HAVE HAD DOUBTS AS TO EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS SHOWN ON PAST RUNS OF               
NAM/GFS THIS LEADS MORE CREDENCE TO FACT THAT THOSE TWO MODELS ARE              
PROBABLY OVERDOING IT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS             
SYSTEM AS UPPER LOW DOES NOT CUTOFF UNTIL IT PASSES CAPE COD.                   
SO IF WE ADJUST OUR TRACK TO JUST INSIDE 40/70 BENCHMARK...IT WOULD             
PLACE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR FROM NORTHERN CT INTO              
CENTRAL/INTERIOR NE MA AND SW NH. CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW                     
TREMENDOUS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION WITH EXCELLENT                
POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION/MESOSCALE BANDING. THIS IS ALSO              
ZONE OF MAXIMUM SNOW GROWTH. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO MAKING THIS A              
BLOCKBUSTER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE SPEED OF SYSTEM...SO ALTHOUGH IT'S            
GOING TO SNOW HARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY                
AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2" PER HOUR...IT SHOULD NOT LAST               
LONG ENOUGH TO GIVE WIDESPREAD TOTALS OVER 10". WE'LL PROBABLY GET              
SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING REPORTS WITH THIS AS WELL.                               
CLOSER TO COAST...WE NEED TO DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WE HAVE            
NO BLOCKING HIGH TO NORTH TO KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED IN AT LOW LEVELS.             
WINDS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO TURN SE LATER THIS                               
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE MODELS SHOW 1000 MB AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS               
TURNING W...NOT A GOOD SIGN TO KEEP IT COLD. GFS CROSS SECTIONS MAY             
BE A LITTLE TOO WARM...INDICATING A CHANGE TO RAIN AS FAR INLAND AS             
I-495 IN EASTERN MA AND INTO NW RI. WE THINK IT IS MORE REALISTIC               
THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE (IE RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL END UP NEAR I-95               
BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE AND PROBABLY AS FAR N AS CAPE ANN. A              
COMPLETE CHANGE TO RAIN SEEMS MOST LIKELY WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE              
COAST FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...THEN ACROSS SE MA NEAR TAUNTON AND              
INTO PROVIDENCE.                                                                
THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL NUDGE STORM TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE             
LOCATIONS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SE MIDDLESEX AND W NORFOLK COUNTIES IN A           
LOW-END WINTER STORM WARNING AND THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...AS WE            
THINK PLACES ALONG ROUTE 128 FROM WOBURN AND BELMONT TO NEWTON AND              
DEDHAM WILL SEE THE 4-5" AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND SUCH AS           
LEXINGTON AND ESPECIALLY MEDWAY AND BELLINGHAM WILL SEE THE 6-8"                
TOTALS. IN THOSE ZONES WHERE WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WE             
WILL GENERALLY HAVE 2-4" TOTALS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN COASTAL            
ESSEX COUNTY MA (ZONE 7)...WHERE WE EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN TOTALS...            
FROM 2" ON COASTLINE TO AS MUCH AS 7-8" NEAR NH BORDER. BUT AVERAGE             
IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING THERE.                                  
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO MERRIMACK VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON           
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE BACK ACROSS CT VALLEY. STRONGEST LIFT             
IS HEADING QUICKLY FOR COAST BY MID AFTERNOON...SO WE THINK MANY                
LOCATIONS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 3 OR 4 PM EXCEPT FOR CAPE            
COD AND ISLANDS.                                                                
MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES WIND. SURFACE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF               
CAPE COD WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGHOUT ALL OF                 
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IF WE TAKE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR                
HYANNIS AND NANTUCKET AT FACE VALUE IT SHOWS A STRONG POTENTIAL OF              
50-60KT GUSTS AS THIS DEEPENING OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. WE THINK THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WE HAVE ENOUGH                
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WIND ADVISORY              
WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR S COAST...EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON 40KT              
GUSTS THERE IS LESS. ADVISORIES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR E MA             
COASTLINE BUT RIGHT NOW WE THINK WE WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA                 
THERE.                                                                          
CLEARING SHOULD WORK IN RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW             
RAPID DRYING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH               
GRADUALLY UNTIL SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE.                                  
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
OVERALL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST                  
THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION SATURDAY IN WAKE OF                     
DEPARTING STORM.  SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND WINDS                
BACK AS CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD             
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA            
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. COLD AIR            
ADVECTION ACROSS REGION COULD YIELD SHOWERS OVER OUTER WATERS                   
CLIPPING CAPE AND ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST               
FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND RESULTING N TO NW WINDS OVER CAPE COULD               
YIELD OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING                  
THROUGH THE COLUMN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...THEN REGION               
AWAITS NEXT POTENTIAL NOREASTER FOR FRIDAY.                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR FOR THE MOMENT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR NANTUCKET WHICH              
WILL SPREAD ONTO S COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL                    
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING TO IFR AS SNOW ARRIVES (THEN TO LIFR           
WITHIN 2 HOURS OF THAT)...CURRENTLY TIMED INTO CT VALLEY TOWARD                 
SUNRISE AND BEFORE MID MORNING ALONG E MA COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT           
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THEN WE                
EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PULLS              
OFF THE COAST.                                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
WE WILL EXPAND STORM WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE CAPE COD BAY            
AND NANTUCKET SOUND...AND MAINTAIN GALE WARNINGS ELSEWHERE AS WINDS             
INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION             
AS TO HOW FAST THE LOW WILL DEEPEN...IMPACTING WIND GUST POTENTIAL...           
BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY IT WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAPE COD RATHER             
THAN FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS              
SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER AWAY.                                                      
FOLLOWED WNA WAVE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER GIVEN PREVAILING WEST TO                   
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASED SEAS IN BUZZARDS                
BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR              
OUTER WATERS AND ALONG SOUTH COAST...ALL DUE TO WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS            
AND ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                      
CLIMATE...                                                                      
FYI...RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...                  
KBOS... 4.6 INCHES IN 1978                                                      
KPVD... 3.0 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
KORH... 8.0 INCHES IN 1903                                                      
KBDL... 4.2 INCHES IN 1995                                                      
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                       
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.               
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAZ005-006-013-014-026 UNTIL 5 PM                 
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019>021 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.              
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-015>019 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.              
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAZ022>024 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.                      
NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ012-015 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                     
RI...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR RIZ001 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                           
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RIZ002>005 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.                  
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ006>008 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.                          
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.                   
  ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NOCERA/EVT/NMB                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
359 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE -SN CHANCES WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SAT AND               
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LES IN ITS WAKE.                                            
WV IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS CONTINUES TO SHOW SAME                  
PATTERN WITH RDG OVER WRN NOAM AND TROFFING OVER THE EAST RESULTING             
IN A NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES. FEATURE OF               
INTEREST IS CLIPPER DIVING DOWN FROM ALBERTA WITH ASSOC SFC LOW OVER            
CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN. 285-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE            
SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO            
WITH PLENTY OF CLDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA BACK INTO THE NRN PLAINS                
STATES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG            
WHILE A HIGH PRES RDG IS CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS                
VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SW GRAD WINDS INCREASING INTO NRN                
PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES.                                                     
TONIGHT...AS THE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO SW ONTARIO              
LATER TONIGHT...SW GRAD WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN            
AS THICKER CLOUDS SPREAD IN FM ONTARIO IN THE EVENING. FCST OF LOW              
TEMPS IS A CHALLENGE AS TEMPS AFTER THE EVENING HRS MAY TEND TO HOLD            
STEADY OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASE IN CLDS AND WINDS.                
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA ARE STILL QUITE LOW (10 TO 15F               
RANGE) AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL SOME THIS EVENING                   
DESPITE THE WIND. FOR THIS REASON SHADED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO            
GFS GUIDANCE. SPREAD A CHC OF -S INTO MAINLY WEST AND CENTRAL                   
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK TO MODEST Q-VECT CONV AND DEEPENING                
MSTR.                                                                           
SAT...PREFER MORE WESTERLY ECMWF/GFS TRACK WITH SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS            
SYSTEM ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. UPR LVL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF             
110 KT H3 JET INTO NRN ONTARIO ALONG WITH MODEST QVECTOR CONV WILL              
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SN. WHILE MOISTURE INFLOW INTO SYSTEM             
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL...SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO              
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS FOR SMALL QPF (LESS THAN A TENTH OF              
AN INCH) SO...GENERALLY EXPECT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF INCH OR             
LESS MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE UP TO TWO INCHES OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES             
WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE A BIT BETTER INITIALLY.                            
LATE SAT INTO SUN...AS THE SFC LOW/TROF MOVES FROM ERN LK SUPERIOR              
INTO ACROSS LK HURON...CAA WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 20-30 KT             
NRLY 950-850 MB WINDS WILL BRING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FROM WEST UPR MI            
INTO N CNTRL UPR MI LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS H8 TEMPS DROP INTO            
THE -8C TO -12C RANGE BTWN 21Z-03Z. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART             
AFTER 06Z SUN WITH A TRANSITION TO PURE LES AT THAT TIME. CYCLONIC              
NRLY FLOW WILL FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER MQT AND WRN ALGER            
COUNTIES...GOGEBIC-ONTONAGON AND PORTIONS OF HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW              
COUNTIES FOR GREATEST STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW GROWTH                    
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE AS WELL WITH MUCH OF CONVECTIVE LYR WITHIN             
THE  -12C TO -17C RANGE.                                                        
GIVEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW HAVE DECIDED             
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES            
STARTING AT 18Z SAT....FOR SRN HOUGHTON...GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON                 
COUNTIES STARTING 21Z AND FOR MQT AND ALGER AT 23Z SAT FOLLOWING                
SOMEWHAT SLOWER TIMING OF GFS. WENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-8                
INCHES SAT NIGHT AND ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES SUN IN THE FAVORED                      
LOCATIONS. WILL WORD UP TO A FOOT OF STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION FOR               
FAVORED LOCATIONS LATE SAT INTO SUN IN WSW STATEMENT. LOOKING AT GFS            
AND NAM LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS INVERSION HGTS                 
LOWER BLO 5KFT AND SHEAR INCREASES IN CBL WITH SFC RDG BUILDING INTO            
THE REGION. HOWEVER...LES COULD LINGER LONGER IF UKMET/ECMWF                    
SCENARIO PANS OUT WHICH WOULD KEEP NWRLY SFC-850 FLOW GOING THROUGH             
00Z MON.                                                                        
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LOOK FOR LES TO BECOME SCT FROM THE WEST SUN               
EVENING BUT THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUN                
NIGHT INTO MON WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW.                        
EXTENDED (TUE-FRI)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN INDICATED BY                    
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES WITH SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO               
MOVE THROUGH UPPER GREAT LAKES IN NW FLOW. MODEL TIMING AND                     
POSITION OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS SKETCHY AT BEST SO WILL CONTINUE                
FCST OF CHC POPS FOR SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
       WINTER STORM WATCH SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN MORNING                        
        MIZ001-003.                                                             
       WINTER STORM WATCH LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN MORNING                   
        MIZ002-009-084.                                                         
       WINTER STORM WATCH SAT EVENING INTO SUN AFTERNOON                        
        MI005-006.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
311 PM MST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...                                          
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WESTERN                   
ZONES. SNOW LIKELY HAS LOST POWDERY CONSISTENCY AND WILL NO LONGER              
BLOW AROUND MUCH...SO HAVE CANCELLED BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR N                
SWEET GRASS...S WHEATLAND AND JUDITH GAP ZONES.                                 
RADAR LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED AN AREA OF                          
PRECIPITATION MOVING SE THROUGH NE MT THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP WAS A              
MIX OF SNOW AND FZRA AND WAS WEAKENING PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS.                 
EXTRAPOLATION BROUGHT PRECIP INTO FORECAST AREA JUST AFTER 23Z.                 
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS DUE TO WEAKENING RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC              
NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY               
WILL CONTINUE RIDING THROUGH THE E OVERNIGHT SO HAVE SPREAD LOW                 
POPS WEST TO KMLS. GFS INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER THAN NAM AT 850              
MB SO WENT WITH THIS MODEL. GFS TIME-HEIGHTS SUPPORTED A CHANCE OF              
PRECIP AS FAR W AS KMLS ALL NIGHT. WILL LEAVE OUT FZRA FOR NOW AS               
BUFKIT HAD TEMPS BELOW ZERO ALOFT OVER KBHK SO THERMAL PROFILE DID              
NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN.                                                      
GFS DID NOT SUPPORT A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IN THE E TONIGHT. 850                
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS STABLE AND PRESSURE RISES               
WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG. ALSO UVV WILL PREVAIL OVER THE E DUE TO                
THE SHORTWAVES. THUS WILL NOT NEED WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE E.                  
OVER GAP FLOW AREAS HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF NW-SE ORIENTED 700 MB                 
JET...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STABLE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE              
TO SUPPORT ADVISORY WINDS OVERNIGHT. KLVM HAS MET ADVISORY                      
CRITERIA MANY TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. SPORADIC REPORTS FROM                       
STILLWATER MINE INDICATED GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL LET              
ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 12Z SAT. AFTER 12Z...700 MB JET EXITS AREA                
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SO WOULD NOT EXPECT A CONTINUATION                
OF ADVISORY WINDS.                                                              
OTHERWISE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND                
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TO              
ACCENTUATE WARMING TREND. ARTHUR                                                
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...                           
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW                
SETTING UP BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL                  
PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER THE                 
RESULT FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN ARCTIC               
SHOT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL                
AGAIN EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST ALREADY UNDER CUTTING GUIDANCE                   
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE END FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS GOOD STILL              
SO MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS PACKAGE.                     
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ALSO BRING A SERIES OF WAVES THROUGH THE                
AREA DURING THE EXTENDED WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EVERY PERIOD                
FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON. THIS ALSO LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LEAVE POPS AS               
IS FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES RESULTING IN LOW                 
CONFIDENCE IN ADDING LIKELY POPS TO AREAS AT THIS TIME. MACZKO                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF KLVM AND THE LEE OF                 
THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED                 
BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT.                    
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA WILL RESULT IN               
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR                  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MACZKO                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 025/041 022/046 026/043 024/033 017/027 011/024 012/023                     
    00/N    00/N    00/B    03/S    33/S    23/S    33/S                        
LVM 025/044 023/047 021/043 023/033 014/025 012/023 010/022                     
    00/N    00/N    00/N    23/S    33/S    33/S    33/S                        
HDN 020/039 019/045 021/044 020/033 016/027 014/025 012/021                     
    00/B    00/U    00/B    03/S    33/S    23/S    33/S                        
MLS 018/037 017/040 017/038 015/031 013/026 009/022 006/018                     
    40/B    00/B    00/B    03/S    33/S    23/S    32/S                        
4BQ 022/039 016/042 019/044 017/033 013/027 010/021 008/022                     
    20/N    00/B    00/B    03/S    33/S    23/S    32/S                        
BHK 023/034 016/037 016/037 016/028 011/024 007/020 006/019                     
    41/M    00/N    00/B    03/S    33/S    23/S    32/S                        
SHR 017/040 016/044 016/041 016/034 012/029 010/025 008/024                     
    00/N    00/U    00/B    03/S    33/S    23/S    33/S                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES                  
      65-66.                                                                    
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
255 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PASS                  
JUST NE OF FA. MODELS HANDLE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM COMPARABLY BUT               
ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO CAUSE A HEADACHE. WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM FOR                
LOW LEVEL TEMPS...WHICH MAY EVEN BE TOO COOL WITH RUC INDICATING                
POCKET OF 925MB TEMPS ABOUT 3C WARMER THAN NAM...PUSHING FURTHER E              
THAN NAM IS INDICATING. GFS IS WAY TOO COOL AT LOW LEVELS...AS HAS              
BEEN THE THEME.                                                                 
CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONGER RETURNS N OF ND AHEAD OF                
500MB TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD FA BY THIS EVENING.                  
BEST PVA (LIFT) WILL BE ACROSS N FA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS              
POSSIBLE ACROSS ENTIRE FA AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. CONSIDERING      
CURRENT SFC TEMPS ACROSS W FA...EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND BEST                 
COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFT 12Z SFC TEMPS OVERNIGHT              
WILL BE AT OR NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND W OF VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO                
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. WILL GO COMBO -RA/FZDZ OR                      
-SN/FZDZ THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. E OF VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN ALL               
SNOW...BUT MONITORING PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE                 
NEEDED. NEXT CONCERN IS WIND POTENTIAL. BEST 850MB WIND SPEED CORE              
TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL ND INTO W FRINGE OF FA AROUND 06Z. WITH                    
THIS...W FA (W OF VALLEY) WILL SEE AROUND 30MPH SUSTAINED WINDS                 
AFT MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A QUICK SHOT OF STRONGER COLD AIR                    
ADVECTION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK               
AND DO NOT EXPECT DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH WITH 45 KTS TO               
MIX WILL BE WINDY. THUS EXPECTING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA                        
(30KT)...NOT MUCH MORE. BEST SNOW COVER SOUTH OF A BDE-GFK-JMS                  
LINE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN W OF VALLEY UNTIL TOMORROW                   
MORNING...AND WILL DEFER HEADLINES ALONG AND E OF VALLEY FOR NEXT               
SHIFT AS ANY ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFT 12Z. ACROSS DVL           
BASIN INTO EXTREME N VALLEY (WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR QPF                       
EXISTS)...WITH FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL/WINDY CONDITIONS/AND POSSIBLE          
BLOWING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SNOW WILL GO WINTER WX ADVISORY                     
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS AND W OF VALLEY...WILL GO BLOWING SNOW                   
ADVISORY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS BLOWING AROUND SNOW AND REDUCING VSBY.           
WINDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SAT AFTERNOON...DECREASING BY EVENING AS       
THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF. EXPECTED COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY MEAN FALLING              
TEMPS DURING THE DAY. A SIMILIAR SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION SUNDAY.              
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT SNOW CHANCES                
CONTINUING.                                                                     
.LONG TERM...COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO DOMINATE WEATHER OVER THE NOR
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG AMPLIFIED DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM JET        
IS EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT POTENT 500MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES       
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING DESCENT SHOT OF         
SNOW TO REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES ALONG WITH INCREASING          
PRESSURE GRADIENT I.E. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IN WAKE OF FEATURE            
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACTIVE WITH NEXT S/W TROUGH SLATED FOR FRIDAY             
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST                 
     SATURDAY FOR NDZ006-NDZ007-NDZ008-NDZ014-NDZ015-NDZ016-                    
     NDZ024-NDZ026-NDZ054.                                                      
     BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST                   
     SATURDAY FOR NDZ028-NDZ029-NDZ038-NDZ049-NDZ052.                           
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST                 
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ004-MNZ007.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG/BERG                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1220 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
BUSY WEATHER SITUATION WITH SYSTEM PASSING OUT OF STATE. SYSTEM                 
DROPPED AN AVERAGE OF 7-8 INCHES OVER MOST OF CWA BUT SOME REPORTS              
OF OVER 10 INCHES ALSO RECEIVED.                                                
AVIATION FORECASTS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY CHANGING THIS                   
MORNING AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW COMBINED              
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AT BOTH JST              
AND BFD BUT AREAS TO THE EAST ARE A BIT MORE STABLE. WIND GUSTS                 
HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 35KTS THUS BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN QUITE                     
SIGNIFICANT IN CWA. TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO THIS SNOW ARE POOR                 
DUE TO THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND THEIR RAPID CHANGES.                        
CURRENT FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AFTER EARLIER MORNING                          
UPDATE...THUS WILL LET IT RIDE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 255 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVR BULK OF CENTRAL PA IN              
ADVANCE OF UPPER LO ROTATING THRU OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY             
LL JET (70KTS ON KCCX VWP)...PRODUCING A 6-8HR PERIOD OF STRONG WAA             
EARLY THIS AM. HOWEVER...BACK EDGE OF SNOW ALREADY ENTERING WESTERN             
PA. LATEST RUC ENDS STEADY SNOW BEFORE DAWN ACROSS ALL BUT SUSQ                 
VALLEY. DESPITE THE DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...THE SNOW:WATER RATIO               
MEASURED AT PSU LAST HOUR WAS 8:1...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN                
THAT MAX OMEGA OCCURRING ARND -6C. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS FCST OF A                 
GENERAL 5-8 INCHES STILL SEEMS ON TRACK GIVEN SNOW REPORTS SO FAR               
AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS.                                                        
UPSLOPING FLOW WILL PRODUCE LINGERING SNOW SHWRS OVR THE MTNS.                  
HOWEVER...EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS AS INVERSION ONLY EXPECTED            
ARND 800 MB. THE LARGER ISSUE WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN              
OPEN AREAS LATER TODAY. AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS S OF NEW                        
ENGLAND...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BY AFTN WITH GUSTS LIKELY               
CLOSE TO 40MPH BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.                                        
LEANED TOWARD COLDER MET READINGS TONIGHT BASED ON FRESH SNOW COVER             
AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE TONIGHT AS HI PRES BUILDS IN. AFTER A                
COLD START...SW FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO               
RECOVER TO NR NORMAL READINGS BY SAT AFTN.                                      
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                  
A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING TO OUR NORTH NOT LIKELY TO             
BRING SIG PRECIP TO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...EACH SHOULD REINFORCE THE               
CHILL OVER OUR REGION. LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY BUT COLD FOR MOST OF                
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY                     
SNOW...TAPERING TO LIGHTER SNOW BY MID MORNING...FROM WEST TO EAST.             
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE MVFR IN SC...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED                
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDS NORTHWARD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ONDREJIK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
347 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                      
DIFFICULT SHORT TERM SETTING UP DURING NEXT 24 HRS AS WAVE                      
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SEEMS THAT NAM AND RUC HAVE A BETTER HANDLE             
ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS SO USED AS FORECAST BASIS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SAT            
NIGHT. MAJOR CONCERNS INCLUDE LOW TEMPS AND FREEZING PRECIP.                    
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD AIR             
BEING PUMPED INTO THE DAKOTAS. GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO COLD SO HAVE                 
FOLLOWED A MORE REASONABLE NAM AND RUC SOLUTION. FIRST OFF                      
TEMPS...FEEL THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH TONIGHT AT ALL FROM              
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING READINGS. RUC/NAM STILL SHOWING WAA                
INTO THE NIGHT HRS WITH THERMAL RIDGE SITTING ON TOP OF US STILL AT             
03Z. AS SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL KICK UP             
OUT OF THE WEST AND FEEL TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE A BIT                         
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE 30S. 8D3 WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME              
MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT ONCE SFC WINDS SWITCH MORE WESTERLY. TEMPS WILL            
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS EVENING. AS WEAK CAA KICKS IN BY              
MORNING SHOULD SEE TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES. SECONDLY...INSERTED                
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE THREAT ENDING                 
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER              
AROUND 850MB...ALTHOUGH NOT TOO MUCH MOISTURE PRESENT TO GET TOO                
EXCITED ABOUT. UPSTREAM OBS IN ND/MT SHOW GOOD AREAL COVERAGE OF                
PRECIP AND HAVE COME IN WITH LGT FRZ RAIN OR IP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.             
NAM IS SHOWING LIFT PRESENT AS 700MB WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. THOUGHT               
ABOUT BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR SAT BUT HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR            
RIGHT NOW. STILL EXPECTING QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW. SNOW IS            
STILL RATHER FLUFFY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD BLOW AROUND EASILY.             
ALSO WEIGHED FACTORS OF HOW OLD THE SNOW WAS AND TODAYS TEMPS. MANY             
LOCATIONS RECEIVED PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND TEMPS NEARING 30.               
THIS PROBABLY BEGAN TO MELT TOP LAYER OF SNOW JUST ENOUGH SO THAT               
AFTER SUNSET WHEN IT FREEZES AGAIN IT WILL HARDEN SOME. SO HAVE                 
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO               
EXAMINE LATER. REST OF SHORT TERM CHANGED LITTLE AS CWA REMAINS IN              
NW FLOW ALOFT AND TEMPS REACH NORMAL LEVELS.                                    
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A STATE OF DISAGREEMENT...WITH ONLY MINOR              
SIMILARITIES NOTED BETWEEN ANY OF THEM. THEY DO AGREE ON A STORM                
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY             
THURSDAY...BUT NO AGREEMENT AS TO EXACTLY WHERE OR HOW STRONG. FOR              
THIS REASON...HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED                  
PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH              
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE             
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DID RAISE POPS A BIT AROUND MID             
WEEK AS ANY SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT HAS PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON                 
WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES. STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE AS            
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SNOW COVER...BOTH THE             
STUFF ALREADY ON THE GROUND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE TO OCCUR                 
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TT/AP                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1117 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DECK AROUND 850MB CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH AND THEN EAST ACROSS                
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO               
THE SOUTHEAST OF KSJT AND KABI. OUR TAF SITES SHOULD SEE NOTHING                
MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE              
10 TO 14 KNOT RANGE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 933 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005)                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS.                  
CLOUD DECK AROUND 850 MB CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS                
SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IS NOW FLIRTING WITH MY SOUTHEAST                 
COUNTIES. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON IT AND                
WILL USE IT AS A ROUGH GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HAVE                     
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY KIMBLE...MASON...AND SAN              
SABA COUNTIES...AND LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THOSE SAME AREAS.                
IF CLOUD DECK HANGS IN TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY...INSTEAD OF COMING                
IN FOR AWHILE AND THEN BREAKING UP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAY               
HAVE TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN EVEN MORE.                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 516 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005)                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT                      
RANGE...TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24                   
HOURS.                                                                          
23/HUBER                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 306 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005)                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THIS MORNING...UPPER LOWS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND              
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. AFTER              
ANOTHER COLD START TO THE MORNING...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL AVERAGE                
AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER DISTURBANCE                      
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND                
WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...ONLY EFFECT ON OUR                  
WEATHER WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                                                             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER               
LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE                  
SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S.               
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE SHEARED INTO THE UPPER FLOW                   
MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON                
TUESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA                   
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD PREFRONTAL WARMING ON                      
WEDNESDAY WELL INTO THE 60S. AT THIS TIME...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE               
TO WORK WITH IN OUR AREA ANY RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK SLIM.                        
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx