AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
915 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE FOR SOUTHWEST                    
COLORADO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED               
THIS EVENING SO THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN DIDN`T MATERIALIZE.                    
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU           
IN NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. DOPPLER INDICATING LOCAL HEAVY RAIN.                
THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND                 
AREA OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION PROJECTE BY RUC MODEL FOR THIS                     
EVENING...BUT DISPLACE NORTH OF AREA RUC PREDICTED.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                         
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA              
CONTINUES TO STREAM DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND           
WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN                
THE HEAT OF THE DAY WITH NUMEROUS STORMS FORMING OVER SAN JUAN                  
COUNTY UTAH AND ACROSS WESTERN MONTROSE COUNTY SOUTH INTO                       
MONTEZUMA COUNTY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR                    
CORNERS IS ENHANCING FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THIS WAVE                     
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH               
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS                
THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THE PAST             
24 HOURS WERE ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND WITH HEAVY RAIN                 
POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR                    
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. ENOUGH FLOW            
ALOFT TO MOVE STORMS ALONG BUT TRAINING STORMS WILL NEED TO BE                  
MONITORED FOR FLOODING.                                                         
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                       
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.                
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON              
AND AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING MOIST AND UNSTABLE.              
A TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL FURTHER SUPPRESS THE            
HIGH CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY BRING A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO              
EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION              
MAY INCREASE A LITTLE AS WELL SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LESS.             
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH MAX AND MIN              
TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.                                           
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                     
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE LITTLE CHANGE WITH A                   
FAIRLY MOIST PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW            
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA AS FLATTENED RIDGE REMAINS EAST OF THE               
CWA. HAVE KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH A            
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MID-            
WEEK...TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO OUR WEST ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE               
WEST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE           
CONTINUED TREND OF DECREASED POPS BY LATE WEEK. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL              
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA                     
RESULTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.                 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT            
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR DUE TO REDUCED                      
VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND             
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. ELSEWHERE...LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. TYPICAL GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM                  
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PLAGUE THE AREA AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS TO                   
DOMINATE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING                                   
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TAL/CJC                                                            
LONG TERM...MPM                                                                 
AVIATION...TAL                                                                  
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
229 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SAT)                                                               
...HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS...              
CURRENTLY...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE PER             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL ANALYSIS ANIMATION. HIGH PRESSURE             
IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH SW-WLY FLOW OVER THE             
CNTRL ROCKIES. VERY MOIST AIR MASS STILL REMAINS TRAPPED OVER CO                
WITH 12Z/03 SOUNDING DATA SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICES OF 150             
TO NEAR 200 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN                
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS SERN CO. ALSO...RELATIVELY MOIST SURFACE DEW             
POINTS ARE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS LEADVILLE...APPROX 10K FT MSL...HAD              
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THAT                     
ELEVATION. EARLY AFTN REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS             
DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WRN AND INTO N CNTRL CO...AND A FEW OVER THE              
OUR CWFA MOUNTAINS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR CWFA            
IS PRETTY LOW RIGHT NOW.                                                        
LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...MUCH LIKE YDA AFTN AND EVE...TOUGH                
TO LOCATE ANY FEATURE/TRIGGER IN SATELLITE/MODEL DATA TO ENHANCE                
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWFA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ENERGY            
JUST SITTING AROUND TO BE RELEASED. RUC40 AND MESOSCALE MODELS                  
SHOWING SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING              
E-NEWD INTO ADJACENT HIGH VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN AND               
TNGT. THE MAIN TSTM IMPACT WEATHER WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN H7-H5               
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 7-8 G/KG AND FREEZING LEVEL/WET BULB                
ZERO HEIGHTS OF 14K-17K FT MSL. SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH MORE                   
INTENSE TSTM UPDRAFTS...BUT MAINLY 1/2 INCH OR LESS IN DIAMETER.                
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE               
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY WITH CELL TRAINING OR                  
MERGERS. TSTM CELLS WILL BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER(10-15KTS)                    
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. SINCE THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO              
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE...WILL                  
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND                
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ALL OF OUR MOUNTAINS AND FREMONT COUNTY. ROCK              
AND MUD SLIDES HAVE OCCURRED IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES OVER THE              
PAST WEEKS. ACTUALLY...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25            
CORRIDOR COULD HAVE SERIOUS HEAVY RAIN ISSUES...BUT TOUGH TO                    
PINPOINT. OBVIOUSLY...WILDFIRE BURN SCARS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN TOO.            
WILL MAINTAIN HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN FORECAST FOR I-25 CORRIDOR AND              
WWD. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A             
MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM POSSIBLY IN NERN CO/WRN NE/NWR                      
KS...WHICH COULD START TO SHOVE A FEW WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS             
SERN CO LATE TNGT OR EARLY SAT AM.                                              
SAT...WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SRN PLAINS               
WITH SW-WLY FLOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR            
MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND               
EVE. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE THE                
MAIN TSTM IMPACT WEATHER GIVEN FREEZING LEVEL/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS             
OF 14K-17K FT MSL AND H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 6-8 G/KG.               
MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT                
OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND NOON AND THEN DRIFT EWD WITH THE MEAN              
CLOUD LAYER FLOW. THE SERN CO PLAINS WILL BE CHALLENGING GIVEN THE              
POTENTIAL OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WRF HAS           
THIS FEATURE...BUT THE GFS DOES NOT. AS USUAL...IT ALL DEPENDS WHERE            
AND HOW THE NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES TNGT. ELY             
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CO SAT AFTN WITH CONVECTIVE                   
PRECIPITATION BULLSEYES DEVELOPING AROUND TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES               
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. CERTAINLY IS DOABLE. WILL LET THE            
MIDNIGHT CREW RE-EVALUATE FOR A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SAT              
AFTN/EVE. MUCH OF THIS IMPACT WEATHER IS DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURE            
WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS. METZE                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN               
TO RUN IN THE EXTENDED PORTION WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING TO THE                
SOUTHEAST. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DEEP MOISTURE                   
PLUME THAT WILL SERVE UP DAILY CONVECTION. AT THE SAME TIME WITHIN              
THAT PLUME WILL BE THOSE PESKY IMPULSES THAT ARE TOUGH TO PREDICT.              
EACH ONE COULD ENHANCE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THAT WILL IN TURN LEAD               
TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS. GFS TRENDING TOWARD A PASSING                     
IMPULSE EVERY OTHER DAY WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE SAT...MON AND               
WED EVENINGS. RATHER THAN BOUNCE THE FORECAST AROUND STAYED CLOSE               
TO CURRENT FORECAST THAT IS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR POPS. TEMPS LEVEL                
OFF THROUGH THE WEEK AND HELD ON TO CURRENT MAX TEMP GRIDS.                     
-FORTUNE-                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS                  
THROUGH 06Z/03 TNGT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR-MVFR           
VIS/CIGS...ERRATIC WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 35KTS...AND PEA             
SIZE HAIL. METZE                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>068-                    
072>083-087.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/21                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
200 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                            
...HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS...              
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED                   
DIRECTLY OVER CO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND WITH 12Z/02 REGIONAL                
SOUNDING ANALYSES SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICES AROUND 150                 
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE               
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S GENERALLY UP AGAINST THE ERN CO              
MOUNTAINS...ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EWD.  TOUGH TO PICK OUT A               
FEATURE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY LOOKING FOR                 
PULSE TSTMS AND COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...LAUNCHING                    
ADDITIONAL PULSE TSTMS.  STORM SPOTTER REPORTS...RADAR ESTIMATES...             
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTED 2 TO 6 INCHES DID FALL AROUND THE            
WET AND SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WED EVE THROUGH EARLY THU                
AM...MORE IMPORTANTLY IN EXTREME WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND BEULAH. A             
STORM SPOTTER REPORTED 6.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL LAST WED EVE THROUGH             
EARLY THU AM. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALREADY SUPPORT THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. EARLY AFTN REGIONAL                
RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS TRYING TO GET GOING OVER THE               
PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA...BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES                
HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE SERN CO PLAINS TODAY.                          
LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT...NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN THE MIDDLE             
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. VERY TOUGH CALL EXACTLY WHERE STORMS              
WILL FORM...IF AT ALL. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE                  
TRIGGER/FEATURE TO ENHANCE PRE-STORM CONVECTION. RUC40 AND MESOSCALE            
MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS POPPING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTN                   
THROUGH THIS EVE. HARD TO TRULY PINPOINT THESE LOCATIONS IN PULSE               
TSTM ENVIRONMENTS. CONDITIONS ARE ALL IN PLACE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY            
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH CELL TRAINING AND MERGERS...MUCH LIKE                
LAST NIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO BEING IN A ROOM OF PING-PONG BALLS               
ON MOUSETRAPS...THROWING A PING-PONG BALL INTO THE ROOM OF                      
MOUSETRAPS AND TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHERE AND WHICH PING-PONG BALLS             
WILL BE SENT FLYING BY EACH OF THE MOUSETRAPS. ANYWAY... MIDLEVEL               
STEERING CURRENTS ARE <5KTS...H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 6-8            
G/KG...AND FREEZING LEVEL/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 14K-17K FT MSL              
ALL SUPPORT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR CO IN               
AUG. INTENSE TSTMS COULD BE QUITE PROLIFIC HEAVY RAINERS WITH 1-3               
INCHES PER HOUR.... ESPECIALLY IN TSTM MERGERS AND STORMS GETTING               
ANCHORED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOCATION HAVING THE GREATEST                   
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND PIKES                
PEAK THROUGH THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE                   
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN...COMPLEX TERRAIN...WILDFIRE BURN                     
SCARS...AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ACTUALLY...OTHER AREAS ACROSS                
CNTRL...S CNTRL...E CNTRL...AND SE CO COULD SEE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN            
AND POSSIBLY FLOODING. IT JUST DEPENDS WHERE THESE PULSE TSTMS                  
FORM...TRAVEL... AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL TSTMS. PLANNING TO KEEP                 
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR THE SAME AREA...AND THE MENTION             
OF HEAVY RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TNGT. TSTMS COULD END AROUND                
MIDNIGHT...BUT TOUGH CALL AND WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL AFTER                     
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
FRI...THERE IS A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL              
HIGH CENTERED OVER CO SHIFTS FURTHER E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.               
RELATIVELY DEEP S-SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER CO. MOISTURE AND                      
INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST            
TSTMS TO BREAKOUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON AND MOVE E-NEWD                
WITH THE FLOW. TSTM POTENTIAL IMPACT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE                
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS.  HEAVY RAIN              
CONTINUES TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT GIVEN H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY               
VALUES OF 6-8 G/KG OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FREEZING LEVEL/WET BULB               
ZERO HEIGHTS 14K-17K FT MSL. STORMS MIGHT BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER FRI         
AFTN GIVEN H7-H5 FLOW OF 15-20KTS. AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR               
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...SO WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE             
A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. METZE                                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
...WET MONSOONAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...                               
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LONG-TERM SYNOPSIS. MODELS IN                      
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS IN MAINTAINING THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE              
GULF AND S CENTRAL U.S.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FLOW OF MOISTURE UP               
FROM MEXICO AND INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE               
POPS OVER THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND LOWER/SLIGHT CHCE POPS OVR THE            
PLAINS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND CLIMO.                                 
FRIDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...PARTICULARLY OVER              
THE PALMER DVD...BUT SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT HAD IN                   
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE                 
ESPECIALLY WITH THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...HIGH PRECIP                     
H2O...AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. WILL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK ON SAT...AS            
THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND WE SEE A BIT              
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SHOULD BE FAIRLY                       
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS WILL SEE A RETURN OF MONSOONAL FLOW ON                 
SUNDAY. MONDAY MAY BE THE BEST BET FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AS CO FALLS             
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130+ KT JET STREAK OVER THE N PLAINS.               
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEEPEN SOMEWHERE INVOF THE SE PLAINS OR OK                  
PANHANDLE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR FRONTOGENESIS OVR SERN CO. ALONG              
WITH THE CONTINUED PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING TO THE N AND E THROUGH              
THE 4 CORNERS REGION...ALL THE INGREDIENTS MAY FALL IN PLACE FOR                
STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.                                                  
EC AND GFS NOW BOTH ON BOARD WITH IDEA OF CUTTING OFF THE BASE OF               
THE PACNW TROUGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FLOW OF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO            
CO THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MAY FINALLY SEE SOME            
SIGNIFICANT DRYING AS THIS W COAST TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EWD LATE IN             
THE WEEK. ROSE                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS                  
THROUGH 06Z/03 TNGT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR-MVFR           
VIS/CIGS...ERRATIC WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 35KTS...AND PEA             
SIZE HAIL. METZE                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>081-                  
083-087.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/44                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1030 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND                
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ONE MORE DAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY                
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE ALONG...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EARLY                     
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES             
ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY AIR FOR SATURDAY.  THE                 
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NICE EARLY AUGUST WEATHER INTO            
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY/...                                         
MINOR UPDATED THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER MADISON                
COUNTY NY AROUND 630 AM. THE RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SHORT                
WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK. THE STORMS FORMED              
IN A LINE AS THEY MOVED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH FREQUENT                    
LIGHTNING. THE STORMS HAVE WEAKEN SINCE 9 AM WITH NO OTHER ACTIVITY             
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT             
FOR EARLY CONVECTION. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER            
REFLECT OBSERVATIONS. THE THERMODYNAMICS CONTINUE TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE            
TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE KALB 12Z SOUNDING THIS               
MORNING IS LOADED WITH MUCAPE CAPE SITTING AT 2300 J/KG WITH A                  
FORECAST SURFACE CAPE UP TO AROUND 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 850-500            
MB LAPSE RATE IS STEEP WITH 7.1 C/KM AND THE WET-BULB HEIGHT HAS                
DROPPED TO 11 KFT. THE WET-BULB HEIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DROP EVEN                 
MORE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DOWN TO 8.5 TO 9 KFT. EVEN THOUGH THE              
DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS             
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION HAVE LIFT AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND                 
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN WX GRIDS AND ZONES              
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                   
WILL HAVE AN 18Z SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                               
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT             
KICK IN UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.  A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS LEFT               
BEHIND BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH A WEAK SFC WIND GRADIENT. WE PLACED SOME            
PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.                                             
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER GREAT             
LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH              
H850 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 15C BY 18Z AT KALB. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND            
EAST SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO 90F.  WE WENT 2-3 DEGREES                  
CLOSER TO THE GFSMOS VALUES. SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL             
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER                   
UPSTATE NY.  HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS              
IN THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M40S TO L50S IN THE HILLS AND MTNS.               
ANOTHER NICE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH SLIDING E/SE OFF THE ERN               
NEW ENGLAND COAST.  SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH LATE IN              
THE DAY...AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT N/NE FROM THE UPPER MID                
ATLANTIC REGION.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT...OVER RUNNING SHOWERS FROM A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE                 
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE TIMING VARIES                 
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. WE PLACED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN              
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS                 
NORTHEAST.  IT APPEARS THE FCST AREA WILL GET INTO A WARM SECTOR                
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND AN                     
APPROACHING WAVE IS TRICKY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE            
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY PM INTO THE               
EVENING WITH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  WE ARE                        
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DAY 4-8 GRAPHIC. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAY                  
BRIEFLY BUILD IN BY THE MID WEEK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND MONDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION  /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                      
PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT AREAS             
OF HAZE...BUT VSBYS SHOULD HOLD IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH EARLY                  
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR                 
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR                 
SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT              
RECEIVE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL.                                                    
AS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...LOOKS LIKE CHANCES INCREASE AFTER                       
17Z/FRI...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FROM KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL.               
THERE MAY BE 2 SEPARATE ROUNDS OF TSTMS...ONE WITH A PREFRONTAL                 
TROUGH...BETWEEN 17Z-22Z/FRI...THEN PERHAPS WITH THE ACTUAL COLD                
FRONT...BETWEEN 00Z-04Z/SAT. THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREAL COVERAGE                
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THUS...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A            
CB APPENDAGE IN 06Z/FRI TAF ISSUANCE. WILL THEN INCLUDE A VCSH AND              
CB APPENDAGE TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z/SAT...DUE TO POSSIBLE GREATER                 
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT.                                   
AS FOR WINDS...OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...EXPECT DIRECTION TO REMAIN 170-200            
THROUGH THE MORNING...AT 5-10 KT...THEN VEER SLIGHTLY INTO A 200-230            
DIRECTION AT 8-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME                     
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER 00Z/SAT...BEFORE BECOMING NW TO N AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT/SAT. WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY TSTMS MAY BE MUCH STRONGER IN               
GUSTS...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.                                              
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SAT AND SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR...MVFR POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS            
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL            
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID CONDITIONS                
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY INTO            
SUNDAY.                                                                         
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 40 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE THIS              
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES WITHIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE                 
HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER INTO THE 90 TO 100 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT.                 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL THEN FALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 35 TO            
45 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER             
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.                                                          
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 5              
TO 10 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE                    
SHIFTING INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS                    
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 MPH.                                 
HAINES INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 5 THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE             
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS IN            
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL               
LEVELS FOR EARLY AUGUST...SO THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY               
IMPACT ON THEM. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF                  
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR NUISANCE                 
FLOODING. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL WELL TO OUR SOUTH                
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL                 
FILTER INTO OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING               
IN. HOWEVER WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY                
NEXT WEEK AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                      
...FLOODING RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH                     
CAROLINA AND THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA...                                         
...TORNADO/WATERSPOUT RISK SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG THE CHARLESTON               
AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS...                                                   
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND                
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT                    
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN                   
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MEANDER BTWN VDI AND AMG THIS EVNG WITH                   
WMFNT EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH HINESVILLE TO TYBEE ISLAND THEN                    
TURNING SHARPLY E ACROSS THE WATERS OFF BEAUFORT COUNTY. THE NOSE               
OF A 30 KT LLJ IN THE 925-850MB LYR REMAINS ORTHOGONAL THE WMFNT                
OFF BEAUFORT COUNTY AND IS SUPPORTING A RATHER CONCENTRATED AREA                
OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST OFF THE FAR LWR SC COAST. SHORT               
TERM MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE A CONTINUED INTERACTION BTWN THE               
LLJ AND THE WMFNT UNDERNEATH A POCKET OF UPR LVL DIFLUENCE                      
THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS SUGGESTS THE RAIN AREA OFF BEAUFORT WL SLOWLY             
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NGT WITH A CONTINUED               
RISK FOR HVY RAIN. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUC AND                 
SREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.                                                         
WL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM FOR ALL SC COASTAL ZONES               
WHICH INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA. SUSPECT THE RISK FOR                  
HVY RAIN IS DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF SE GA WITH DRIER AIR                     
BEGINNING TO FILTER IN ALOFT...THUS WL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR               
MOST OF OUR GA ZONES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE INLAND/COASTAL                   
CHATHAM COUNTY WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH WL CONTINUE. WE ARE JUST NOT               
COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE RISK FOR HVY RAIN AND FLOODING HAS                
ENDED IN CHATHAM COUNTY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA              
IS PRONE TO SVR URBAN FLOODING.                                                 
THE CORE OF 0-1KM HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 IS SLOWLY                  
WORKING ITS WAY UP THE LWR SC COAST AS THE WMFNT BUCKLES N.                     
ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO/WATERSPOUT RISK IS DIMINISHING ACROSS                      
BEAUFORT COUNTY...ANOTHER ENHANCED TORNADO AREA COULD DVLP ALONG                
COASTAL COLLETON AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES OVR THE NXT FEW HRS AS A               
NOSE OF 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE NUDGES IN FROM THE SE. A TORNADO WRNG               
WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR BEAUFORT COUNTY WHERE TWO STRONG CYCLONIC                
COUPLETS WERE DETECTED BY THE KCLX RADAR NEAR HILTON HEAD ISLAND.               
NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED SO FAR PER A CONF CALL WITH BEAUFORT                
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.                                                       
WL UPDATE THE GRIDS SHORTLY CUT POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY              
FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR SE GA. WL MAINTAIN LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS                 
ELSEWHERE WITH THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS ACROSS CHARLESTON AND                   
COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUD                 
COVER WL BE MADE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                    
35 KT LLVL JET AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE JUST                
OFFSHORE SAT MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST OMEGA TO BE RIGHT ALONG               
THE COAST. ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF                
THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST WHERE                       
DIVERGENT JET REGION...850 MB JET...AND THETA-E TONGUE COINCIDE.                
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUD COVER SAT...ESPECIALLY WESTERN                
SECTIONS...THUS A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THAN TODAY.               
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE                 
STORMS...ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE                  
AGAIN TRICKY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. DROPPED TEMPS WELL                
BELOW MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND CLOSER TO THE                 
COAST. INLAND GA COULD REACH 90 IN A FEW SPOTS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                   
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE COAST                 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TAKING MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH              
IT. WHILE WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE                
UPCOMING WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM             
THE DEEP SOUTH.                                                                 
A MID-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND            
RISING THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING            
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE AND THICKNESS VALUES                 
WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY                
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE             
MOIST SOILS WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THOSE VALUES...AT LEAST                
EARLY ON IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN ARE HEAT              
INDEX VALUES...WHICH COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS             
MONDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN.                                                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING                
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL                
GENERALLY KEEP MOST AREAS FREE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AND             
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR                 
SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE                     
DEPARTING FRONT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD                 
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH                  
FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING                
AND INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS                   
ESPECIALLY AS THE RAIN IS OCCURRING. THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD END              
OVER THE SAV TERM BY LATE TONIGHT. THE CHS TERMINAL WILL SEE THE                
RAIN A BIT LONGER DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING SLOWLY TO              
THE NORTHEAST. MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT               
AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A                  
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD BREAK LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A SMALL                
WINDOW OF REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z FOR BOTH TERMINALS.                  
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC FROM RAINFALL                           
TODAY...REDUCED VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS BREAK. CONDITIONS                  
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING AS A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND               
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.                                        
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR OR                  
LOWER CONDITIONS IN/NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.                
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MIDDLE                
OF NEXT WEEK.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WL NEED TO MAKE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS                
EVNG...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR WNDS N OF THE WMFNT AND HIGHER THAN                
XPCTD WNDS S OF THE WMFNT. NO HEADLINES ARE XPCTD ATTM. THERE WL                
BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS ACROSS MAINLY THE SC WTRS OVR               
THE NXT FEW HRS.                                                                
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN              
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE             
WATERS AND 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. A WEAK PRESSURE            
GRADIENT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS UNDER 15            
KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
THE KCLX RADAR CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.                
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ118-119.                        
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ048>051.                        
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
758 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
...ENHANCED TORNADO/WATERSPOUT RISK FROM TYBEE ISLAND TO                        
BEAUFORT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND                
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT                    
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN                   
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                             
EARLY EVNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRES SPINNING BTWN VDI AND               
AMG WITH A WMFNT BISECTING SE GA AND XTNDG E INTO THE COASTAL WTRS              
OFF OF BEAUFORT COUNTY. THE INITIAL WAVE WHICH MOVED UP THE FNT                 
EARLIER IN THE AFTN HAS EXITED OFF THE MIDDLE SC COAST AND NLY FLOW             
BEHIND THE WAVE HAS PUSHED THE FNT S OF EDISTO BEACH AND ORIENTED IT            
MORE W-E. KCLX VWP SHOWS THE NOSE OF THE 925MB LLJ IS BECMG MORE                
ORTHOGONAL TO THE FNT WITH TIME WITH STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT            
NOTED IN THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. THUS ITS NO SURPRISE THAT NUMEROUS            
HEAVY CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DVLPD ALONG THE N GA COAST FROM            
SAVANNAH TROUGH THROUGH SAINT CATHERINES ISLAND...MAINLY IN RESPONSE            
TO THIS INTERACTION WITH THE LLJ AND THE SFC WMFNT.                             
0-1KM HELICITIES HAVE RECENTLY JUMPED TO 300-350 M2/S2 IN THE BEAUFORT          
AREA WITH SBCAPES AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NOSING IN FROM THE SE JUST               
OFF TYBEE ISLAND. WE ARE WATCHING CELLS DVLPG ALONG THE N GA COAST              
VERY CAREFULLY FOR SIGNS OF ROTATION AS CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE             
FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION. ANY WATERSPOUTS THAT DVLP JUST OFF THE                
COAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE INLAND AS TORNADOES THUS THERE WL              
BE AN ENHANCED TORNADO/WATERSPOUT RISK FROM TYBEE ISLAND UP                     
THROUGH BEAUFORT COUNTY FOR THE NXT FEW HRS.                                    
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A REASONABLY                
HIGH RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH NGT AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO                      
INTERACT WITH THE WMFNT NOW XTNDG W-E ACROSS SE GA WITH PWATS AS                
HIGH AS 2.50 INCHES. THE FLOOD WATCH WL CONTINUE.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                    
35 KT LLVL JET AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE JUST                
OFFSHORE SAT MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST OMEGA TO BE RIGHT ALONG               
THE COAST. ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF                
THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST WHERE                       
DIVERGENT JET REGION...850 MB JET...AND THETA-E TONGUE COINCIDE.                
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUD COVER SAT...ESPECIALLY WESTERN                
SECTIONS...THUS A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THAN TODAY.               
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE                 
STORMS...ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE                  
AGAIN TRICKY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. DROPPED TEMPS WELL                
BELOW MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND CLOSER TO THE                 
COAST. INLAND GA COULD REACH 90 IN A FEW SPOTS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                   
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE COAST                 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TAKING MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH              
IT. WHILE WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE                
UPCOMING WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM             
THE DEEP SOUTH.                                                                 
A MID-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND            
RISING THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING            
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE AND THICKNESS VALUES                 
WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY                
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE             
MOIST SOILS WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THOSE VALUES...AT LEAST                
EARLY ON IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN ARE HEAT              
INDEX VALUES...WHICH COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS             
MONDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN.                                                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING                
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL                
GENERALLY KEEP MOST AREAS FREE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AND             
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR                 
SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE                     
DEPARTING FRONT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD                 
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH                  
FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING                
AND INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS                   
ESPECIALLY AS THE RAIN IS OCCURRING. THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD END              
OVER THE SAV TERM BY LATE TONIGHT. THE CHS TERMINAL WILL SEE THE                
RAIN A BIT LONGER DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING SLOWLY TO              
THE NORTHEAST. MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT               
AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A                  
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD BREAK LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A SMALL                
WINDOW OF REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z FOR BOTH TERMINALS.                  
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC FROM RAINFALL                           
TODAY...REDUCED VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS BREAK. CONDITIONS                  
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING AS A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND               
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.                                        
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR OR                  
LOWER CONDITIONS IN/NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.                
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MIDDLE                
OF NEXT WEEK.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VARIABLE ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF                 
THE WATERS BUT SOLIDLY SE ACROSS SRN AREAS. WINDS HAVE SLOWLY                   
INCREASED AT 41008 THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS RESPONDING AS                       
WELL...WITH 3 FT NOW BEING REPORTED AT R2 TOWER AND 41008. WINDS                
SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS A BIT NORTH                 
WITH INCREASE IN SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST AS LLVL PRES GRADIENT                    
INCREASES. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY MIX SOME                   
20-25 KT WINDS GUSTS DOWN FROM THE LLVL JET.                                    
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN              
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE             
WATERS AND 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. A WEAK PRESSURE            
GRADIENT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS UNDER 15            
KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
THE KCLX RADAR CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.                
THIS MAY CHANGE NOW THAT DEEPER CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DVLP                 
OFF THE COAST. THERE ARE NO PLANS TO SWITCH TO A TROPICAL Z/R                   
RELATIONSHIP ATTM.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GAZ116>119-137>141.               
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR SCZ048>051.                       
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
REV/ST                                                                          
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1223 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]                                      
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON                  
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KS AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY MOIST                 
AND UNCAPPED. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL...DISSIPATING                     
TOWARD SUNSET. WILL CARRY VCTS AT THE TAF SITES TIL 02Z. HAZE MAY               
POSE SOME VISIBILITY PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON AT CNU FOR VFR/MVFR                
PILOTS.                                                                         
JMC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN FORECAST               
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. LATEST RUC/SURFACE DATA INDICATING                    
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING WEAKLY CAPPED ALREADY WITH CAPES OF NEAR 2,000              
J/KG. RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH                            
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS. PRECIPITABLE                  
WATER 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AREAWIDE AND WITH SLOW...ERRATIC STORM                    
MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.                
BASED ON PROJECTED DEWPOINTS/LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS...SOME LOCALES                
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COULD SEE HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 THIS PM.               
JMC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/                           
AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                             
PATCHY GROUND FOG (3-5SM) WAS IN PLACE ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE TAF                
SITES THIS MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD GIVE WAY FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER               
SUNRISE WITH MORE SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z AS THE                 
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET. COULD SEE MORE ISOLATED STORMS                   
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE OUTFLOWS WHERE THE CURRENT SHOWERS              
ARE DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH                
MORE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.                                               
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER               
SOUTH GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS                
HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE ALTOCUMULUS THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE                    
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING              
HOURS.                                                                          
SCHRECK                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MAINLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
TODAY-SUNDAY:                                                                   
AREA RADARS HAVE REMAINED QUIET SO FAR OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME               
ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS. THE NEAREST                     
PRECIPITATION IS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A                 
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THAT REGION. ASIDE FROM PATCHY GROUND                 
FOG AT MANY SITES ACROSS THE REGION...ALL REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET.                 
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN THE STORY LATELY WILL CONTINUE             
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW DAYS IF NOT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A BROAD             
UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE US WILL REMAIN INTACT...WITH SOME WEAK             
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FLOW AT TIMES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES            
TO BRING MOISTURE RIGHT THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS...AND CAPE VALUES                
INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY. SO IN GENERAL...IT SEEMS                
QUITE REASONABLE THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS EACH            
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BECOME A BIT DRIER               
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO LIKELY THE COVERAGE OF THESE                  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE EACH DAY.                                   
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...GETTING A SMIDGE                 
WARMER EACH DAY.                                                                
MONDAY-THURSDAY:                                                                
AGAIN...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GENERAL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH               
THE WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED            
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY                           
NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS               
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S                     
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH MILD NIGHTS.                                              
SCHRECK                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...DIURNAL COOLING COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND               
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE MVFR VISIBILITIES TOWARD MORNING ACROSS              
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED                         
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY                                    
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST                    
KANSAS WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY.                
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    93  72  94  74 /  20  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      92  71  95  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          93  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        93  71  93  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  72  94  74 /  20  20  10  10                                
RUSSELL         91  72  96  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      91  72  96  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
SALINA          92  72  95  74 /  20  20  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       92  71  95  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
CHANUTE         91  71  93  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
IOLA            91  71  93  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    93  71  94  72 /  20  20  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1107 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN FORECAST               
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. LATEST RUC/SURFACE DATA INDICATING                    
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING WEAKLY CAPPED ALREADY WITH CAPES OF NEAR 2,000              
J/KG. RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH                            
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS. PRECIPITABLE                  
WATER 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AREAWIDE AND WITH SLOW...ERRATIC STORM                    
MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.                
BASED ON PROJECTED DEWPOINTS/LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS...SOME LOCALES                
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COULD SEE HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 THIS PM.               
JMC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/                          
AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                             
PATCHY GROUND FOG (3-5SM) WAS IN PLACE ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE TAF                
SITES THIS MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD GIVE WAY FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER               
SUNRISE WITH MORE SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z AS THE                 
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET. COULD SEE MORE ISOLATED STORMS                   
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE OUTFLOWS WHERE THE CURRENT SHOWERS              
ARE DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH                
MORE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.                                               
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER               
SOUTH GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS                
HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE ALTOCUMULUS THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE                    
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING              
HOURS.                                                                          
SCHRECK                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MAINLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
TODAY-SUNDAY:                                                                   
AREA RADARS HAVE REMAINED QUIET SO FAR OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME               
ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS. THE NEAREST                     
PRECIPITATION IS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A                 
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THAT REGION. ASIDE FROM PATCHY GROUND                 
FOG AT MANY SITES ACROSS THE REGION...ALL REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET.                 
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN THE STORY LATELY WILL CONTINUE             
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW DAYS IF NOT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A BROAD             
UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE US WILL REMAIN INTACT...WITH SOME WEAK             
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FLOW AT TIMES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES            
TO BRING MOISTURE RIGHT THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS...AND CAPE VALUES                
INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY. SO IN GENERAL...IT SEEMS                
QUITE REASONABLE THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS EACH            
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BECOME A BIT DRIER               
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO LIKELY THE COVERAGE OF THESE                  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE EACH DAY.                                   
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...GETTING A SMIDGE                 
WARMER EACH DAY.                                                                
MONDAY-THURSDAY:                                                                
AGAIN...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GENERAL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH               
THE WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED            
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY                           
NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS               
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S                     
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH MILD NIGHTS.                                              
SCHRECK                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...DIURNAL COOLING COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND               
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE MVFR VISIBILITIES TOWARD MORNING ACROSS              
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED                         
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY                                    
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST                    
KANSAS WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY.                
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    93  72  94  74 /  20  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      92  71  95  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          93  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        93  71  93  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  72  94  74 /  20  20  10  10                                
RUSSELL         91  72  96  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      91  72  96  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
SALINA          92  72  95  74 /  20  20  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       92  71  95  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
CHANUTE         91  71  93  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
IOLA            91  71  93  73 /  20  20  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    93  71  94  72 /  20  20  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
344 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS             
THE CWA THIS MORNING. OTHER SMALL OUTFLOWS WERE NOTED ACROSS                    
REPUBLIC COUNTY AS WELL. AN MCV WAS STILL SPINNING OVER FAR                     
NORTHEAST KANSAS...SE NEBRASKA AND NW MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS               
HAS SUSTAINED CONVECTION IN THIS GENERAL AREA OVER THE PAST FEW                 
HOURS. THETA RIDGE LAY ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND RUC KEEPS IT             
IN PLACE. CONVECTION THAT LED TO FLASH FLOODING IN REPUBLIC COUNTY              
IS DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING                
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                  
MCV MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH THE                
MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT                  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL BROAD BRUSH THE POPS ACROSS             
THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST              
KANSAS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER TODAY. WILL KEEP THE                 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 18Z TODAY EVEN THROUGH CONVECTION IS            
DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN TREND OF THE PAST FEW            
DAYS WILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OF              
CONVECTION AND WITH VERY HIGH PWS EXPECT TO SEE RAINFALL RATES OF 2             
TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ALONG WITH VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS. CLOUDS             
WILL AGAIN PLAY A ROLE WITH HIGHS TODAY AND ADJUSTED PRIOR FORECAST             
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.                              
FOR TONIGHT WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE OUT OF MONTANA ACROSS NEBRASKA                  
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM CONVECTION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR              
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE              
POSSIBLE WITH 2 INCH PWS.                                                       
ON FRIDAY...NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH            
GOOD WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS KANSAS. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT            
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH               
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH                  
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON THE FRINGE OF POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND             
IOWA. RIDGE BUILDS THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.                      
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.                                                     
53                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TROPICAL TYPE CONVECTION BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN                   
SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY MORNING THUS FAR. NO LARGE SCALE              
FORCING PRESENT WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION COLD POOLS ENHANCING AND               
DEVELOPING NEW CONVECTION. SEVERAL DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE               
STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA AND NEW ISOLATED CONVECTION CERTAINLY                 
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT REGION. THIN MID/UPPER CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE                
AREA FROM DISSIPATED CONVECTION OVERHEAD WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING              
FROM 4 TO 6 MILES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY ANTICIPATED                
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. REFER TO SHORT TERM FORECAST             
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.                                              
BLAIR                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTHERN BORDER            
COUNTIES AND CLOUD COUNTY UNTIL 18Z TODAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
125 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT THU AUG 2)...                                     
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING EARLIER TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST HALF              
OF UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER COORDINATION WITH MICHIGAN DNR AND USFS.                
RHS MADE A VERY QUICK FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRECIPITABLE              
WATER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT                
COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING. 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAW LOOKED                  
EXTREMELY DRY WHILE MIXED UP TO 800MB. COORDINATION WITH USERS ALSO             
REVEALED QUITE A FEW SMALL FIRES DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...                    
INCLUDING ONE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND 3.9 UM                  
IMAGERY ABOUT 4 MILES SE OF PINE STUMP JUNCTION IN LUCE COUNTY. WITH            
THE SUN GOING DOWN...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STARTING TO CLIMB BACK             
UP AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...THUS THE EXPIRE TIME OF 8 PM EDT                 
LOOKS GOOD.                                                                     
IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED DEWPOINTS TOMORROW GIVEN THE FACT THAT               
THE AIRMASS UPSTREAM IS AS JUST AS DRY AS THAT OVER US NOW. GOING               
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY LOOKED OKAY...THUS THE AREA CURRENTLY              
EXPERIENCING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY SEE SIMILAR READINGS                   
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY ARE                    
TODAY...THUS THE RH VALUE SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER...AROUND THE RED               
FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT. AS FOR RED FLAG POTENTIAL TOMORROW...              
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THE WINDS WILL REACH CRITERIA. RIGHT NOW            
THEY LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER THE AREA THAT SEES THE LOWEST              
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH WOULD BE JUST UNDER CRITERIA. NAM                   
SOUNDINGS WOULD NOT SUGGEST MUCH GUSTING...THOUGH THE 13 KM RUC                 
SHOWS 20 KNOT GUSTS (SIMILAR TO TODAY) OVER THE LOW RELATIVE                    
HUMIDITY AREA. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MICHIGAN DNR AND USFS...HAVE             
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. IF WINDS LOOK LIKE THE 13              
KM RUC AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE CERTAIN TO FALL TO THE 25                
PERCENT LEVEL DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT...THE WATCH CAN BE UPGRADED             
TO A RED FLAG WARNING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN             
U.S. WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...A TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL             
CANADA DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN               
U.S. FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB CLOSED LOW ALONG THE HUDSON BAY SHORELINE             
OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO WITH STRONG CYCLONIC SPIN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR              
AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE HEADING SOUTHEAST.                                      
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IT THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PROBLEM IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS                 
AVAILABLE AS IT LOOKS LIKE WITH EXTRAPOLATION THAT THE WRAPAROUND               
MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE NORTH. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY              
INTO THE AREA AS DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS            
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. DRY AIR HAS MADE IT              
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IS HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ON THE LAKE                   
MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE FOR THE MOST PART AS CONVECTION TRIED TO GO TO             
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...QUIET                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING               
FORECAST TEMPERATURE WISE AS WHAT WE HAD IN THERE LOOKED GOOD. WENT             
CLOSE TO ADJMAV FOR LOWS AND HIGHS WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND             
THERE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MIXING 850 MB TEMPERATURES               
DOWN TO THE SFC FOR HIGHS WHICH GIVES ME CLOSE TO ADJMAV CONDITIONS.            
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED)...                                      
THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO TREK                         
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN SHIFT             
INTO MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN             
ON SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.               
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND               
SUNDAY. GFS TRIES TO KEEP THIS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS             
NAM/ECMWF/GEM MOVE THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE U.P. WILL FAVOR THE MAJOR             
SOLUTION AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                        
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC               
SUNDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO              
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL                
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT             
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITING FACTOR WILL THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE                     
MOISTURE. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. IN THE AFTERNOON                    
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO AROUND 80 WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE               
BREEZES CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE                 
SHOWERS. THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR NOW. A            
NEW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.                           
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT                    
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE FRONT               
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD INTO             
THE AREA WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.                                               
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT            
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE WHICH               
WILL MOVE INTO THE U P ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
VERY LIMITED. LAKE BREEZES SHOULD SET UP AND COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER             
A SHOWERS WITH THUNDER OR TWO...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING              
FOR NOW.                                                                        
MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF            
A HIGH LATE WEDNESDAY...SO WILL DROP EVEN A MENTION OF EVEN A SLIGHT            
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY                 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE             
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WINDS WILL PICK               
BACK UP AGAIN AT THE TAF SITES WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRI...BUT                
DEFINITELY NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...A LAKE BREEZE              
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ENTER SAW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS            
TO DIMINISH FRI EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OVERHEAD.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
10 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT AS A                    
SECONDARY COLD FRONT TIGHTENS GRADIENT OVR ENTIRE LAKE THIS EVENING             
INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. WINDS DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVENING AS             
HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES IN. DESPITE ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM/WARM FRONT            
AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS TO            
REMAIN BLO 20 KT AND NO GALES FORESEEN.                                         
$$                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                               
  MIZ001>005-009>013-084.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...AJ                                                            
SHORT TERM/MARINE...GM                                                          
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
743 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING EARLIER TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST HALF              
OF UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER COORDINATION WITH MICHIGAN DNR AND USFS.                
RHS MADE A VERY QUICK FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRECIPITABLE              
WATER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT                
COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING. 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAW LOOKED                  
EXTREMELY DRY WHILE MIXED UP TO 800MB. COORDINATION WITH USERS ALSO             
REVEALED QUITE A FEW SMALL FIRES DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...                    
INCLUDING ONE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND 3.9 UM                  
IMAGERY ABOUT 4 MILES SE OF PINE STUMP JUNCTION IN LUCE COUNTY. WITH            
THE SUN GOING DOWN...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STARTING TO CLIMB BACK             
UP AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...THUS THE EXPIRE TIME OF 8 PM EDT                 
LOOKS GOOD.                                                                     
IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED DEWPOINTS TOMORROW GIVEN THE FACT THAT               
THE AIRMASS UPSTREAM IS AS JUST AS DRY AS THAT OVER US NOW. GOING               
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY LOOKED OKAY...THUS THE AREA CURRENTLY              
EXPERIENCING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY SEE SIMILAR READINGS                   
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY ARE                    
TODAY...THUS THE RH VALUE SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER...AROUND THE RED               
FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT. AS FOR RED FLAG POTENTIAL TOMORROW...              
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THE WINDS WILL REACH CRITERIA. RIGHT NOW            
THEY LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER THE AREA THAT SEES THE LOWEST              
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH WOULD BE JUST UNDER CRITERIA. NAM                   
SOUNDINGS WOULD NOT SUGGEST MUCH GUSTING...THOUGH THE 13 KM RUC                 
SHOWS 20 KNOT GUSTS (SIMILAR TO TODAY) OVER THE LOW RELATIVE                    
HUMIDITY AREA. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MICHIGAN DNR AND USFS...HAVE             
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. IF WINDS LOOK LIKE THE 13              
KM RUC AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE CERTAIN TO FALL TO THE 25                
PERCENT LEVEL DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT...THE WATCH CAN BE UPGRADED             
TO A RED FLAG WARNING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN             
U.S. WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...A TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL             
CANADA DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN               
U.S. FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB CLOSED LOW ALONG THE HUDSON BAY SHORELINE             
OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO WITH STRONG CYCLONIC SPIN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR              
AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE HEADING SOUTHEAST.                                      
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IT THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PROBLEM IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS                 
AVAILABLE AS IT LOOKS LIKE WITH EXTRAPOLATION THAT THE WRAPAROUND               
MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE NORTH. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY              
INTO THE AREA AS DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS            
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. DRY AIR HAS MADE IT              
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IS HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ON THE LAKE                   
MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE FOR THE MOST PART AS CONVECTION TRIED TO GO TO             
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...QUIET                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING               
FORECAST TEMPERATURE WISE AS WHAT WE HAD IN THERE LOOKED GOOD. WENT             
CLOSE TO ADJMAV FOR LOWS AND HIGHS WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND             
THERE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MIXING 850 MB TEMPERATURES               
DOWN TO THE SFC FOR HIGHS WHICH GIVES ME CLOSE TO ADJMAV CONDITIONS.            
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED)...                                      
THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO TREK                         
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN SHIFT             
INTO MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN             
ON SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.               
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND               
SUNDAY. GFS TRIES TO KEEP THIS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS             
NAM/ECMWF/GEM MOVE THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE U.P. WILL FAVOR THE MAJOR             
SOLUTION AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                        
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC               
SUNDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO              
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL                
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT             
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITING FACTOR WILL THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE                     
MOISTURE. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. IN THE AFTERNOON                    
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO AROUND 80 WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE               
BREEZES CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE                 
SHOWERS. THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR NOW. A            
NEW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.                           
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT                    
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE FRONT               
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD INTO             
THE AREA WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.                                               
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT            
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE WHICH               
WILL MOVE INTO THE U P ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
VERY LIMITED. LAKE BREEZES SHOULD SET UP AND COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER             
A SHOWERS WITH THUNDER OR TWO...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING              
FOR NOW.                                                                        
MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF            
A HIGH LATE WEDNESDAY...SO WILL DROP EVEN A MENTION OF EVEN A SLIGHT            
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY                 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24              
HOURS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL END THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND KSAW DUE              
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AGAIN ON               
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY AS            
THEY WERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT CMX. A LAKE BREEZE MAY ENTER KSAW               
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...10 TO 20 KT                
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT AS A  SECONDARY COLD                
FRONT TIGHTENS GRADIENT OVR ENTIRE LAKE THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF               
FRIDAY. WINDS DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES                
RIDGE MOVES IN. DESPITE ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM/WARM FRONT AFFECTING            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN               
BLO 20 KT AND NO GALES FORESEEN.                                                
$$                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT) THIS EVENING                         
  MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084.                                                   
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING                             
  MIZ001>005-009>013-084.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SHORT TERM/MARINE...GM                                                          
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION...MRC                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
143 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...FINALLY SOME ACTUAL WX TO WORRY ABOUT. BUT...FOR THE                
MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.              
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMPLETELY CALM OVERNIGHT...AS A               
LIGHT WEST WIND HOLDS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC MAY            
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PARTICULARLY AT PLN AND                
TVC. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE WELL IN                   
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WI. THIS             
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MORNING THROUGH THE              
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS              
WITH IT. THIS CHANCE THOUGH IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH. WILL HAVE A                 
PROB30 FOR THUNDER ONLY AT APN...AWAY FROM THE LAKE MI SHADOW...AND             
WHERE SOME INSTABILITY CAN BUILD BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY/MID             
AFTERNOON. ONLY A VCSH AT PLN/TVC. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SOUTH            
OF APN.                                                                         
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 936 PM WED AUG 1.                                           
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WON/T STAY THAT WAY.             
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO FAR NW WI. VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING             
ALONG THE COAST OF NW UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY ONTONAGON AND VICINITY.             
WOW...ACTUAL WEATHER FOR ONCE. PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT ARE THE              
MAIN CONCERN.                                                                   
18Z NAM PRETTY MUCH NAILED THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND DEEP                     
CONVECTION TO THE WEST...AND WILL FOLLOW THE FLAVOR OF IT/S PROG.               
(BY COMPARISON...THE RUC IS MUCH TOO SLOW...WITH PRECIP STILL                   
OFFSHORE UPPER MI THRU 02Z.) BETWEEN THE NAM AND RADAR TRENDS...WILL            
SPEED UP PRECIP ONSET A BIT. LEADING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD REACH            
WHITEFISH PT JUST AFTER 06Z/2AM...1-2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND            
SLOWLY PUSHING INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. DON/T SEE ANY MAJOR PUSH INTO             
NORTHERN LOWER MI BY 12Z/8AM...BUT NORTHERN EMMET COUNTY (AND BEAVER            
ISLAND) COULD SEE A SHOWER/STORM VERY LATE.                                     
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT HEADS                
EAST. OBVIOUSLY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOST. WE DO               
HAVE A RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH 850MB WINDS NEARING 30KT.               
THOSE SW WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN                 
UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS VEER WSW TONIGHT...LARGELY PARALLEL             
TO THE FRONT...AND THUS ARE POORLY ALIGNED TO PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL               
ELEVATED INFLOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAN MAKE             
A RIGHT HAND TURN...BUT MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY...AND                    
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVIANT MOTION.            
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.                                                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM WED AUG 1...                                   
SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING VERY FLAT                
CUMULUS OUTSIDE DEVELOPING AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN INTERIOR               
NRN LOWER...UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE/CAPPED OFF HOT ATMOSPHERE. SFC              
TEMPS WERE RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS              
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. SFC TD`S HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT TO THE                 
UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCALES...BUT MOST AREAS WERE IN THE LOWER                    
60S...WHILE THE JUICIEST PLACES WERE ALONG THE LAKESHORES WHERE DEW             
POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 70S (WATER TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S).               
HEAT INDICES UNDER THESE TEMPS/DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM            
90F TO THE UPPER 90S. UPSTREAM COOL FRONT IS NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH            
SW ONTARIO AND INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                   
EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WAS DIMINISHING (FROM THIS                   
MORNING)...WHILE NEW CONVECTION IS NOW STARTING TO POP ALONG THE                
FRONTAL ZONE.                                                                   
TONIGHT...WITH ATMOSPHERE CAPPED OFF AROUND 750MB (CINH STILL                   
>50J/KG...AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF >100F NEEDED WITH A DEW POINT OF              
73F) EXPECT NO PRECIP THROUGH THE EVENING...WHILE THE FEW CUMULUS WE            
HAVE...ERODES TO CLEAR SKIES. COOL FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY              
PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS MN. THIS            
ACTIVITY WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF TO SOME DEGREE WITH WEAK/MODERATE H8-H5            
-DIVQ FROM UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO.             
THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES BY 12Z.              
ATTM...FORCING WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT                  
NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTERN UPPER WILL BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE                  
WEAKISH H8 LLJ (NOSE POINTING WELL EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN). WOULD                 
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS TRICKLING INTO              
CHIP/MACK OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE                        
CHANGED...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOURCE THAT             
GETS STRETCHED FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY TO THE EAST...THINNING OUT              
TO JUST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF H8-H7 THETA-E THAT LAYS OUT ALONG THE              
FRONT. MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IN            
THE LOW LEVELS/SFC. WITH DEW POINTS MIXING OUT THE WAY THEY DID TO              
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AGAIN TODAY....HAVE LOWERED MINS JUST A             
TOUCH INLAND AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST...MORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAISED            
LOWS ALONG THE LAKESHORES...ESPECIALLY LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WEAK SW              
FLOW AND WATER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL KEEP A RATHER WARM NIGHT             
FOR THOSE REGIMES.                                                              
THURSDAY...NARROW RIBBON OF H8-H7 THETA-E ALONG THE FRONT DRAGS                 
SLOWLY ACROSS NRN LOWER IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THE             
ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS WILL BE THE LIKELY BETTER                  
CHANCE FOR STORMS...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE            
TROUGH PULLS EVEN FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. H8-H5 -DIV Q CONTINUES              
TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DO NOT LOOK WEAK ENOUGH FOR              
LAKE BREEZES TO HELP INITIATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...BUT THE FRONT                
WILL AT LEAST HAVE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT            
JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SITUATION WHERE MANY AREAS CAN SEE RELIEF             
FROM THE RECENT DRY WEATHER. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES...STRONG                
HEATING PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY SE CWA BY               
THE SAG BAY) WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 90S. WITH            
HIGHER SFC TD`S POOLING ALONG THE FRONT IN TO THE MIDDLE AND                    
POSSIBLY UPPER 60S (LOW 70S DO NOT LOOK POSSIBLE WITH OFFSHORE                  
FLOW)...MLCAPES BY LATE AFTERNOON COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG. IT             
DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE             
ANYTHING CAN FIRE THOUGH WITHOUT ANY DECENT UPPER SUPPORT. THROW IN             
THE FACT THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING RIGHT AROUND MAX                      
HEATING...AND WE COULD SEE A SITUATION WHERE STORMS WILL NOT BE ABLE            
TO FIRE EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-72. WILL KEEP RIDING A SMALLISH             
CHANCE POP OF 25%...AND KEEP 30-35% CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST            
AREAS WHERE THE CAP CAN BE ERODED MORE EASILY. FREEZING LEVELS ARE              
IN THE 14KFT RANGE...BUT WET BULBS ARE AROUND 10.5KFT SO MAYBE SOME             
LOW END THREAT FOR THREE-QUARTER INCH HAIL IN ONE OF THE STRONGEST              
OF CELLS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AROUND 35-40KTS MAY POSE A LOW END              
THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT TOO...BUT THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS             
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL...MINIMAL CHANCES            
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF STORMS AND              
KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. DO NOT FEEL THAT THE HEAT                  
ADVISORY IS WARRANTED...IN LIGHT OF LOWER SFC TD`S EXPECTED (NOT                
WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...IF FRONT SLOWS DOWN A BIT...MAYBE                
THERE IS A CHANCE...BUT UPPER 90S HEAT INDICES LOOK OK FOR THE FAR              
SE CWA. THEREFORE...NO HEAT ADVISORY SEEN AT THIS TIME. BAND OF                 
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING THROUGH DOES NOT APPEAR TO HOLD ENOUGH                   
MOISTURE AT THE SFC TO RESULT IN MARINE FOG (WITH WATER TEMPS IN THE            
LOWER 70S).     SMD                                                             
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF            
EXCEEDINGLY WARM CONDITIONS (EVEN FOR LATE JULY/EARL AUGUST                     
STANDARDS)...LOOKS LIKE A RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE               
EXTENDED AS UPPER MIDWEST DOMINATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GETS             
SHUNTED SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING CENTRAL AND                  
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SETS UP A MORE ZONAL APPEARANCE TO THE MID                
LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LYING JUST SOUTH OF STRONGEST               
WESTERLIES. BESIDES SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES...HARD TO TIME                 
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE MID LEVELS COINCIDENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR              
SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING ACROSS THE            
AREA...SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL              
(LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN                   
DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WITH NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN            
EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT. WOULD EXPECT FURTHER EXPANSION AND               
STRENGTHENING OF DROUGHT WHEN UPDATED READINGS COME OUT TOMORROW).              
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CENTER ON AFOREMENTIONED                 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL                       
SHORTWAVES.                                                                     
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF                   
SHORTWAVE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE CROSSES             
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED COOL               
FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BY                   
EVENING...PUTTING AN END TO ANY SHOWER THREAT EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.             
AFTER SOME CONCERN EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT FRONT MAY HANG UP ACROSS              
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...IT APPEARS LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW                
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE UPPER OHIO                  
VALLEY ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN            
LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING LOW              
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO BUCKLE FRONT BACK NORTH AS HIGH                   
PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING              
DRY MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER DYNAMICS WEST OF THE AREA...FEEL               
ASSOCIATED SHOWER THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. THUS...WILL RUN            
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD (REMOVING CURRENT SATURDAY              
NIGHT POPS) UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALTHOUGH              
BY NO MEANS COOL...TEMPERATURES DO FALL OFF SOME BEHIND FRONTAL                 
PASSAGE...WITH LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID              
AND UPPER 50S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPROACHING 80 TO THE            
MID 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER...THE              
LOW TO MID 60S...WITH WEAK WAA OVERSPREADING THE LAKES AND SOME                 
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.                                                        
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME IN                  
STORE FOR THE AREA AS HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE ZONAL              
FLOW WORK IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE             
ADVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS              
OLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BOWS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...CROSSING               
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY                   
RETURNING AS A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN INHERENT TIMING                
ISSUES AT THIS POINT...AND FACT THAT OVERALL INTENSITY AND DYNAMICS             
OF SHORTWAVES REMAIN IN QUESTION...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POP THEME.              
DESPITE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND NOT WANTING TO SOUND TOO                 
OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HARD TO IGNORE DEEP MOISTURE            
PROFILES (PWATS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 2.00 INCHES) AND PRESENCE              
OF STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WENT            
AHEAD AND EXTENDED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO MONDAY.                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MANY QUESTIONS WITH REGARD TO                  
EVENTUALLY FRONTAL POSITION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST GFS SPINS UP            
A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SURFACE LOW MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS UPPER                    
MICHIGAN...WITH SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND SYSTEM HELPING                 
PROPEL A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. ON             
THE OTHER HAND...AND WHAT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN PROJECTED ZONAL            
FLOW...THE 00Z ECMWF HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN               
LAKES. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...TRIED TO FOLLOW HPC                          
GUIDANCE...USING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN GRIDS (WILL NOT EXPLICITLY               
SHOW UP IN ZONES AT THIS TIME) TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS FOR                
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SEASONALLY MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS TO                     
PREVAIL...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK GENERALLY RANGING FROM               
THE UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER            
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL               
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.                                         
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
142 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. START OUT THE TAF WITH PREVAILING VFR                      
CONDITIONS. MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...BUT MAIN                
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. START OUT                 
WITH PREVAILING SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH A TEMPO OF                  
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THEN AT 10Z WENT WITH                 
IFR AS THE CEILING IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO 800 FEET. RETURN TO VFR               
AT 15Z WITH A PROB GROUP FOR MVFR AND SHOWERS TOWARD LATE MORNING               
AND AFTERNOON AS VERY MOIST AIR HANGS AROUND.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS                         
NORTHWESTERN CWA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OFF ACROSS THIS AREA AND              
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TWO              
THIRDS OF THE CWA BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS.                          
THEREFORE...ALSO CANCELED THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHERN MOST                  
COUNTIES.                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007/                           
AVIATION...00Z TAF. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE KGRI                 
TERMINAL FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ADDITIONAL                       
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL              
WHETHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRACK                   
RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL...BUT THEY WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE                  
AREA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...WITH              
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.                 
BESIDES THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE OTHER CONCERN FOR                
THIS PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.               
WITH THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND WINDS BECOMING              
LIGHT NEAR THE FRONT...BELIEVE FOG AND ASSOCIATED REDUCED                       
VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE                     
PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007/                           
SHORT TERM...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON                     
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A STRONG                
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS SEEN RIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.                   
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS UNDER A VERY MOIST             
AND ACTIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. CURRENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE             
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM                    
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER                    
MIDWEST.  DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SEEN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT              
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  PAST MORNING UPPER AIR             
DATA ALONG WITH RUC INITIALIZATION DATA REVEALS PW VALUES AROUND 150            
TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  THE ATMOSPHERE UNDER THIS PATTERN IS                 
GENERALLY UNCAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEN            
NOT ONLY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT BUT WELL AHEAD IT AS WELL.                   
A VERY WET PERIOD IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA                
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO SLIDE SOUTH             
INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WITH THE TAIL END OF            
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AIDING THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH...DEEP               
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS VERY LIKELY TONIGHT INTO                 
TOMORROW.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WITH SLOW             
STORM MOTION ALONG WITH BACK BUILDING OF CONVECTION LOOKING VERY                
POSSIBLE AT TIME...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY.  GIVEN            
PREEXISTING FLOODING CONDITIONS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE                    
AREA...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.                      
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY             
NIGHT IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH. THE POTENTIAL DOES               
EXIST FOR FLOODING TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING               
HOURS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT SINKS.  MOST OF THE                 
MODELS ATTEMPT TO STALL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY                   
TOMORROW EVENING WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS MAY MEAN THE FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED              
TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 18Z AND MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO LOOK THIS             
OVER CLOSELY.                                                                   
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IDENTIFYING PERIODS FOR               
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS THE MAIN DIFFICULTY.                            
THERE APPEAR TO BE SEVERAL SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE                   
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT IDENTIFYING THE TIMING AND FAVORED LOCATIONS              
FOR THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINS DIFFICULT. MODEL-TO-MODEL AND                    
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN            
THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND BOUNDARIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP                 
CHANCES. THUS GENERALLY KEPT PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THOSE                   
PERIODS FOR WHICH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DISPLAYING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN             
CONSISTENCY AND ALSO RELIED HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLE DATA. WITH THIS                 
BEING SAID...ONE OF THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOKS TO COME ON                
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH ATTENDANT             
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WHILE A MID-LEVEL                     
SHORTWAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS ON              
FRIDAY AS THIS SHOULD GIVE US AN APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN GIVEN              
THE PATTERN OF LATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES PUSHING OFF TO THE                    
NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AND LIFTING FRONT FRIDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
AFTER COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND                   
POSSIBLE PRECIP...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND               
YIELDING WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE                
90S. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET SHUNTED                  
SOUTHEAST OPENING THE TRACK BACK UP FOR SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE              
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MCS ACTIVITY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF             
THE RIDGE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA HAVE            
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING SUCH EPISODES LATE SUNDAY INTO            
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO WILL CARRY POPS              
THESE PERIODS. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME POSSIBLE MCS                 
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON                 
PRECIP MENTION FOR THIS PERIOD UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY AND                
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT SHOWS UP...BUT OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT THIS              
POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK UNDER            
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AND LOWS AROUND            
70.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ041-048-049-              
     060>064-072>077-082>087.                                                   
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HEINLEIN                                                                        
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
300 AM MDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND PLOT EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL           
HIGH CENTER OVER KGUP...A 40-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE GREAT           
BASIN...AND A 20-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY JET OVER NE NM. WATER VAPOR LOOP         
SHOWS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING OVER WESTERN NM WHERE THE GOES           
SOUNDER HAS PICKED UP A FEW PWAT PIXELS AROUND 2.0 INCHES. LOWEST PWAT          
VALUES ARE OVER NE NM WHERE DRYING HAS BEEN DEVELOPING SINCE THURS EVE.         
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SFC LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NM             
BENEATH THIS MOISTURE PLUME WITH THE 08Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BEST          
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THIS AREA.                                  
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND WEST           
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE PER LATEST OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS...RUC            
ANALYSIS...AND THE GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z GFS/NOGAPS/NGM.            
RAISED POPS IN THIS AREA AND CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A             
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS             
AFTERNOON HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED COMPARED TO THURS SINCE            
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF             
THE STATE. STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SE AND          
SACRAMENTO MTNS AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER W TX SHIFTS SLOWLY             
WESTWARD TOWARD KELP. 06Z MREF/03Z SREF SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT             
THAT A 576DM H5 TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE NW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND              
WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF              
THE STATE AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAISED POPS OVER            
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND VALLEYS SAT AND SUN. MODELS THEN DISAGREE ON               
HOW FAR EAST THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SETS UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.              
LEFT EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS UNCHANGED TO AWAIT TRENDS               
FROM 12Z MODEL RUNS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  89  64  88  64 /  50  50  40  40              
GALLUP..........................  82  58  83  58 /  60  50  50  40              
GRANTS..........................  84  58  81  57 /  40  50  50  40              
GLENWOOD........................  84  63  84  62 /  50  60  50  40              
CHAMA...........................  81  53  77  50 /  60  60  50  40              
LOS ALAMOS......................  79  57  83  57 /  40  40  50  40              
RED RIVER.......................  77  47  72  46 /  50  40  50  30              
TAOS............................  82  54  82  54 /  30  30  50  30              
SANTA FE........................  81  57  81  59 /  40  30  50  30              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  83  59  83  60 /  30  30  40  30              
ESPANOLA........................  85  59  88  60 /  30  20  30  20              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  67  87  67 /  30  30  40  30              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  91  64  89  65 /  30  30  40  30              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  63  84  63 /  40  30  40  30              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  90  65  88  65 /  30  30  40  30              
SOCORRO.........................  89  64  88  63 /  30  30  40  30              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  55  79  57 /  40  30  50  30              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  57  85  58 /  30  30  40  20              
CARRIZOZO.......................  84  60  83  61 /  30  30  30  30              
RUIDOSO.........................  74  52  76  54 /  50  40  50  30              
RATON...........................  81  57  81  58 /  30  20  30  30              
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  56  78  56 /  20  20  30  30              
ROY.............................  80  61  86  63 /  10  20  20  20              
CLAYTON.........................  85  63  89  64 /  10  10  20  10              
SANTA ROSA......................  85  61  90  64 /  20  20  20  20              
TUCUMCARI.......................  87  66  92  68 /  20  10  10  10              
FORT SUMNER.....................  84  65  91  66 /  20  20  10  10              
CLOVIS..........................  81  64  88  65 /  30  20  10  10              
PORTALES........................  83  65  90  66 /  30  30  10  10              
ROSWELL.........................  84  66  90  68 /  50  30  20  10              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
42                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
300 AM MDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS 1017MB HIGH PRES OVER SE CO           
NOSING SW INTO NE NM. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS A 30-40 KNOT NW             
TO SE ORIENTED JET FROM KFMN SE ACROSS KROW INTO KMAF. RADAR TRENDS             
SHOW INCREASING ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS          
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER JET WILL         
TRANSLATE SE TOWARD W TX AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS          
AS THE 500-300MB UPPER HIGH MOVES WESTWARD INTO SW NM. RAISED POPS TO           
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY IN AREAS E OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FOR THIS             
MORNING SINCE CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSCD         
WITH EXITING UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE           
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E PLAINS AND             
SW MTNS AS GOES PWATS SHOW VALUES 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THESE AREAS.         
THETA E RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE SW HALF             
IS ADVERTISED TO BECOME MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED INTO FRIDAY WITH           
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FOLLOW. LEFT HIGHEST POPS             
OVER THE W HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH WEEKEND AS ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z           
NOGAPS/GFS/UKMET. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST            
COAST PUSHING THE UPPER HIGH EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS          
TREND INDICATES THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST          
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY ROUNDS SHOWERS AND STORMS.          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  92  64  91  65 /  30  30  40  40              
GALLUP..........................  85  56  83  56 /  30  30  40  40              
GRANTS..........................  87  57  85  56 /  20  30  40  40              
GLENWOOD........................  85  61  85  61 /  40  30  50  50              
CHAMA...........................  80  48  79  50 /  30  50  50  40              
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  56  82  56 /  40  50  40  40              
RED RIVER.......................  73  44  76  44 /  60  50  50  40              
TAOS............................  85  53  85  53 /  40  30  30  30              
SANTA FE........................  83  57  84  58 /  40  40  40  30              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  86  60  86  60 /  40  40  30  30              
ESPANOLA........................  90  61  89  59 /  20  30  20  30              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  89  66  89  65 /  30  40  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  64  91  63 /  30  40  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  62  87  62 /  30  40  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  91  64  90  65 /  30  40  30  30              
SOCORRO.........................  90  64  90  63 /  20  30  30  20              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  56  81  56 /  50  50  40  40              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  84  53  84  52 /  50  60  30  20              
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  61  84  61 /  40  60  30  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  75  55  75  55 /  60  60  50  20              
RATON...........................  85  55  86  57 /  50  50  20  20              
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  52  82  54 /  60  40  30  20              
ROY.............................  81  59  84  60 /  50  50  20  20              
CLAYTON.........................  85  61  87  62 /  40  30  20  10              
SANTA ROSA......................  87  62  87  63 /  60  50  20  20              
TUCUMCARI.......................  87  67  90  68 /  50  40  20  20              
FORT SUMNER.....................  87  65  89  66 /  60  50  20  20              
CLOVIS..........................  85  63  85  64 /  60  30  20  10              
PORTALES........................  88  64  87  65 /  60  30  20  10              
ROSWELL.........................  88  68  88  68 /  50  50  40  20              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
138 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS                       
EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                    
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT             
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN THE                 
WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH                    
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SRN ONTARIO PROVINCE SWD                
THRU LOWER MI AS OF MID MORNING. OBVIOUSLY A VERY WARM AND                      
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED BUF                    
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWING CAPES UP TO 2800 J/KG. THE MODEL                  
WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT RUC 500MB WINDS OF                   
30-35 KNTS OVER LOWER ONTARIO THIS MORNING IS HIGHER THAN MODELS.               
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THAT BEST S/W ENERGY IS MOVING EAST OF THE FA                 
THIS MORNING, BUT NAM HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE PSBLY MOVING                 
THRU THIS AFTN AND LOCAL WRF MODEL IS ALL FOR BLOWING UP                        
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR OVER MI MAY               
BE ABLE TO CAP OFF WESTERN ZONES AS IT MOVES EAST...SO COULD SEE                
THE BEST CHC FOR STORMS ACROSS SUSQUEHANNA REGION...EAST THRU THE               
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. AREA WILL BE UNDER THE                     
INFLUENCE OF RR QUAD OF UPPER JET THIS AFTN...AND WITH AMT OF CAPE              
AND WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION...THERE IS CHC FOR AT                  
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND               
LARGE HAIL.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                               
FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH WITH THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION              
CONTINUING. ACTIVITY WILL END ACROSS NYS BY EARLY EVENING AND                   
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE POCONOS AND WYOMING VALLEY. BEHIND FRONT                 
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES             
SLIDES EAST.                                                                    
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY CLEAR AS SFC                
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.                 
MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT                 
LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE.                          
SUNDAY WILL START MOSTLY SUNNY THEN INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST            
TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES PRODUCES               
MID LEVEL WAA. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST AS BEST ISENTROPIC               
LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF FA THROUGH 00Z MON. TEMPS                 
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE                      
NORTHERN U.S. THRU THE PERIOD WITH VARIOUS SFC FEATURES CROSSING                
SRN CANADA AND AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING         
OF THESE SYSTEMS THIS FAR IS NOT HIGH. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE               
BEST PRECIP CHCS ARE TO OCCUR SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON              
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INDICATED JUST LOW CHC POPS ATTM SINCE TIMING IS                
LIKELY TO CHANGE. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL               
WITH LOW TO MID 80S PREVAILING FOR MAXES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
NUMEROUS TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPVMNT               
LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVS OUT AND DIES DOWN. FOG LIKELY               
TNGT...MVFR MOST SPOTS BUT DENSER AT ELM WHERE IFR TO LIFR                      
CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD BETWEEN 08-12Z. VFR ALL SITES ON SAT. WINDS                
GNRLY WRLY 10-15 KTS THIS AFTN BUT G35 PSBL NEAR STRONGER TSRA. NW              
WINDS ARND 10 KTS ON SAT.                                                       
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER SUNDAY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AND                  
VISBY IN SHRA/TSRA.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RRM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JML                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RRM                                                                
LONG TERM...JML                                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
900 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE               
OVER PORTIONS OF SC TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK LOW               
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS            
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AN AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE                  
EASTERN CWA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN                
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SW GA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE DURING            
THE PD. MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS HOW FAR N INTO THE CWA THIS                
WILL MANAGE TO SPREAD PRECIP. RUC HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN                           
OVERFORECASTING THIS TREND BUT IS SEEMINGLY BECOMING BETTER                     
INTIALZIED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING NEAR THE SC/GA BORDER.             
NEWER RUNS KEEP ALL MEASUREABLE RAIN IN EXTREME SRN ZONES MUCH AS               
DEPICTED IN CONTINUITY. WILL STILL SHOW SOME SLGHT CHANCE POPS                  
FARTHER N ALONG THE COAST AS THE NAM AND GFS STILL SHOW A RATHER                
IMPRESSIVE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE SIGNAL JUST OFFSHORE...SOME OF WHICH            
MAY GLANCE THE COAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                     
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START OUT                 
THE PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES OF PCP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA EXTENDING INTO COASTAL WATERS. KEPT BEST               
CHC OF PCP ALONG THE COAST FOR TOMORROW. BY SUNDAY...WEAK SFC LOW               
DRIFTS OFF SHORE AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT...KEEPING AREA ON BACK              
END OF MID TO UPPER TROUGH AND LOWER CHC OF PCP. KEPT MAX TEMPS                 
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SAT WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN                          
AREA..ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 90S              
IN MOST PLACES ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALONG THE                    
COAST.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
5H RIDGE AND PIEDMONT TROF WILL REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURES                  
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP              
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO AND POPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. BOTH                    
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 850 TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE 20C.                 
GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE               
PERIOD BUT FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH THIS FEATURE WELL              
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND             
THURSDAY WHEN 5H RIDGE IS THE STRONGEST. THESE DAYS WILL ALSO HAVE              
THE LEAST LIKELY CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP DEVELOP...EVEN ALONG THE               
ANTICIPATED SEA BREEZE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
GIVEN THAT LBT WENT DOWN IN FOG LAST NIGHT...AND THE FACT THAT THERE            
WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER INLAND...COULD SEE SOME RADIATION MVFR/IFR             
FOG FOR LBT AND FLO...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.                           
BOUNDARY ON RADAR PASSED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS                      
EVENING...SUPPRESSING PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA. THINK PRECIP WILL                
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS AFFECTING            
MYR AND CRE JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE MOISTURE TRIES TO WAVE NORTH.             
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 15-17Z SHOULD ENHANCE                    
WHATEVER SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AROUND.                                        
ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY...SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH                
LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THIS PD STEMMING             
FROM THE LOW IN SW GA THAT WILL LIFT TO THE ENE. A GENERAL SRLY                 
DIRECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A BACKING FROM SW TO SE POSSIBLE.                
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY CAPPED AT 15 KTS. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A               
FEW KTS FROM PREV FCST AS KCLX VWP/INCREASED STORM STRUCTURE NEAR               
SC/GA BORDER AND OCP7 BOUY ALL SUGGEST THAT SOME COASTAL JETTING MAY            
BE OCCURRING.                                                                   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                           
THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BECOME TRICKY AS WRF                      
CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS GA INTO SC                   
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY                     
FLOW...BUT DEPENDING ON MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST ON               
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF ON SHORE WINDS SAT NIGHT                  
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS                      
BUILDING SEAS UP TO AROUND 4 FT IN OFF SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE                  
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.                                          
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH             
THE PERIOD WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE COAST AND PIEDMONT TROF INLAND.            
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RGZ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MBB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RGZ                                                                
LONG TERM...III                                                                 
AVIATION...DL                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
246 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO             
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST             
THIS WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR            
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA            
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK 1015MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE            
IN SOUTHERN GA. A SFC TROUGH ASSOC/W THE LOW EXTENDED NE ALONG THE              
SOUTHEAST COAST. A LEE TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL                     
NC...STRETCHING NNE INTO EASTERN PA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC                
RANGED FROM 60F IN THE TRIAD TO 70F IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN.                
ALOFT...A DEEP RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH               
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US. AT 250MB...A TROUGH              
WAS LOCATED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...                 
EXTENDING FROM WV SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN TN...NORTHERN GA...AL AND               
THE FL PANHANDLE. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER                   
IN/OH...FURTHER CONFIRMED BY RUC 250MB HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS WHICH SHOW A          
VORT MAX IN THIS LOCATION.                                                      
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS AFT/EVE...                                        
THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE...WITH A 1.33"               
PWAT (COMPARED TO 1.07" YESTERDAY). THE REASON FOR THIS CAN BE SEEN             
IN WV IMAGERY...WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMING N/NE INTO SC/NC            
FROM THE FL GULF COAST. THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING IS SIMILAR...WITH A                
1.50" PWAT TODAY COMPARED TO 1.04" YESTERDAY. OF NOTE IN THE GSO                
SOUNDING IS THE ABSENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION                   
EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDING YESTERDAY...WITH 650MB TEMPS ABOUT 3C COLDER            
TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AND FCST            
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW DEEP MIXING LIKELY AGAIN...WITH               
DEWPOINTS DROPPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER 60S. WITH TEMPS IN             
THE LOWER/MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...WEAK INSTABILITY             
IS FCST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000              
J/KG.                                                                           
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS AFT/EVE...                                        
SSE WINDS ON THE COAST AND ENE WINDS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN                       
INDICATE A SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR                  
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST              
SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC NEAR THE COAST. SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W THE            
LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR             
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH              
JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS PER 12Z RAOB DATA...AND RUC 250MB                    
HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS SHOW AN ELONGATED VORTMAX ASSOC/W THIS                       
FEATURE...HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL MOVE MUCH                 
DURING THE DAY ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM MODEL PROGS. THE RUC DOES                
SHOW THE VORTMAX ASSOC/W THE 250MB SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER            
IN/OH DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NC/VA LATER THIS EVENING...AND THIS               
COULD PROVIDE SOME BENEFICIAL DIFFERENTIAL PVA.                                 
SUMMARY FOR THIS AFT/EVE...                                                     
THE THERMODYNAMICS HAVE IMPROVED TODAY...WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND            
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. DIURNAL MIXING               
HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF                   
CENTRAL NC AGAIN (EXCEPT THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN)...AND THIS WILL              
SERVE TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO MARGINAL LEVELS THE                 
REMAINDER OF THIS AFT/EVE. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF MARGINAL                
INSTABILITY AND SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W THE LEE TROUGH AXIS HAS                 
APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...              
WITH LATEST RADAR/SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS                 
ALONG AND WEST OF US 1 THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL ADD A SLIGHT            
CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ENDING JUST BEFORE SUNSET. SHOWER                  
ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED...AND THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE               
WEST OF US 1 AND NORTH OF HWY 64. -VINCENT                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                           
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MIDWEST            
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC             
BECOMES NW OR WNW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS/NAM            
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN               
SOUTHERN GA...KEEPING THE LOW SOUTH OF NC AND TAKING IT EAST INTO               
THE ATLANTIC OFF THE GA/SC COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                           
SATURDAY...                                                                     
CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR VERY SLIM ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW                    
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...AND THAT`S ONLY IF              
THE MID-LEVELS DO NOT WARM UP AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND                 
PROVIDES A FOCUS IN THE FORM OF SFC CONVERGENCE...SIMILAR TO TODAY.             
A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND THICKNESSES IN THE 1430-1435M RANGE             
INDICATE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 94-98F RANGE...ABOUT 5-8F ABOVE NORMAL.              
SUNDAY...                                                                       
THE GFS/NAM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING IN REMNANT MCS                  
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG A BOUNDARY IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY               
AFT/EVE. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUN AFT/EVE...AND THIS MAY NEED            
TO BE INCREASED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS               
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUCH A SCENARIO OCCURRING. GFS/NAM THICKNESSES             
ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE 1430-1435M RANGE...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER               
ASSOC/W CONVECTION THAT WILL BE RIDING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY             
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN              
ON SAT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 93-96F RANGE.                 
MONDAY...                                                                       
THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BEGINS TO SHIFT FURTHER                   
EAST...WITH HEIGHTS RISING OVER CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. THE GFS                   
INDICATES NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. IT APPEARS THERE             
WILL BE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND MON AFTERNOON...AND THIS IN            
ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE               
AREA VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...             
PRIMARILY DURING THE NORMAL PEAK HEATING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS CONTINUED            
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S. -VINCENT                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AS THE                  
WESTERLIES HOLD PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTH. WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX ORIGINATING FROM UPPER              
MIDWEST MCS ACTIVITY AND DROPPING AROUND THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE              
MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PASSING NEAR AND JUST              
NORTHEAST OF NC. THIS FEATURE... IF IT COMES TO PASS... SHOULD BE               
OUT OF THE AREA PRIOR TO MONDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH LINGERING                     
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NC IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...               
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH              
FRIDAY WITH THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING VALUES 1-2 STANDARD              
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL INTO FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A              
PERSISTENT STABLE LAYER AT 700-400 MB... ALTHOUGH WITH THIS DEGREE              
OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER                    
VALUES... MARGINAL POTENTIAL BUOYANCY MAY STILL BE ACHIEVED...                  
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ISOLATED STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS               
CONTINUES TO SHOW A RETROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE                  
CENTER... PRODUCING A WEAKNESS DOWN THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE                  
PERIOD AND DROPPING A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. THE               
00Z/03 ECMWF WAS MUCH MORE EMPHATIC WITH THIS TROUGHING... A                    
DEPARTURE FROM THE HIGHER HEIGHTS OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND THE GFS...            
BUT IT DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN. THIS SORT OF ANOMALOUSLY            
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS FAR FROM A SURE             
BET... AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY RAISED SKY COVER A BIT ON FRIDAY WITH              
NO INCREASE IN POPS OR SHIFT IN WIND. THICKNESSES AND A DRY                     
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM STILL SUGGEST HIGHS ONE TO            
TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD... YIELDING HIGHS                
INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST                
DAYS... AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 100 DEGREE HIGHS IN             
CENTRAL NC EITHER DAY. IF THE GFS TREND OF INCREASING DEWPOINTS                 
PERSISTS AND APPEARS IMMINENT... HEAT INDICES COULD REACH ADVISORY              
LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS IN A ROW. -GIH                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
WILL AGAIN LARGELY FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.               
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY... A FEW SHOWERS              
HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MAY AFFECT KRDU...              
HOWEVER ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...                    
SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE OLD FRONT             
EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST                   
COAST... MID CLOUDS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT FAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING            
THE CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR FOG             
TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT... PARTICULARLY AT KRWI/KFAY WHERE IFR FOG              
IS POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL FOG/STRATUS FORECASTING SCHEME                
SUGGESTS THAT FOG WON`T BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. OF BIGGER CONCERN AT                
KFAY MAY BE THE STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY OVER GA/SC COASTAL SECTIONS             
WHICH IS POISED TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST NC TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.              
HAVE KEPT THIS JUST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED-BROKEN VFR CLOUDS FOR NOW             
BUT AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS CLOUDINESS               
NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF KFAY. ANY FOG SHOULD MIX OUT SATURDAY MORNING            
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAINING LARGELY DRY... AND JUST SCATTERED             
DAYTIME CUMULUS IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.                      
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK... ASIDE FROM            
AREAS OF PRIMARILY MVFR FOG AND HAZE LATE NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK                
EACH DAY... PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -GIH                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR                          
NCZ021>023-038-039.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...HARTFIELD                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
259 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN                  
U.S. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY                
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED                
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED                 
ALONG THE GULF COAST. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S                
ACROSS CENTRAL NC...AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.               
ALOFT...H25 ANALYSIS SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK CYCLONIC              
CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL VA. WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS...SHOWING A               
WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC SWIRL THAT DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH WV OVERNIGHT             
INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST VA THIS MORNING.                                      
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...                                      
THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING TODAY SHOWS A DRY AIRMASS...WITH A PWAT OF                 
1.07"...VERSUS 1.44" YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALSO OF NOTE THIS                  
MORNING IS A MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH TEMPS IN THE                 
600-700MB LAYER AS MUCH AS 4C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH                   
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL NC...               
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S DURING            
PEAK HEATING/MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SO BASICALLY...A DRY COLUMN WITH            
A MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FALLING SFC DEWPOINTS WILL                 
ALLOW ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.                        
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...                                      
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...THERE WILL BE NO            
REAL SURFACE LIFT OR FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...THERE IS A WELL              
DEFINED CYCLONIC SWIRL THAT SHOWS UP WELL IN WV IMAGERY AND IN H25              
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CENTRAL/SW               
VA. LOOKING AT THE LATEST WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWARD                 
PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE HAS STALLED IN VA...AND ALTHOUGH RUC/NAM12             
FCST HEIGHT AND VORTICITY FIELDS HAVE A TOUGH TIME PICKING UP ON                
IT...THEY DO SEEM TO SHOW ANY ENERGY OVER VA BEING KICKED OUT                   
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. EITHER                
WAY...THERE IS NO MOISTURE ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE AND IT APPEARS THE              
BETTER LIFT WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH IN VA.                                       
SUMMARY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...                                       
THE COMBINATION OF MEAGER INSTABILITY...A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC                  
COLUMN AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LARGELY PREVENT ANY                
CONVECTION OTHER THAN DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS            
AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE VA BORDER THAT ARE CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT              
ASSOC/W THE CYCLONIC SWIRL SEEN IN WV IMAGERY IN CENTRAL VA.                    
ENHANCED CU CAN BE SEEN IN VIS SAT IMAGERY IN THESE AREAS.                      
THEREFORE...TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR A VERY               
BRIEF AND ISOLATED SHOWER...WILL INTRODUCE A 10% CHANCE OF -SHRA IN             
NORTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE VA BORDER UNTIL 22-23Z...AND CONTINUE               
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH TEMPS             
STILL IN THE 92-95F RANGE. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW              
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. -VINCENT                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTS TOWARD THE MIDWEST               
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC             
BECOMES NW OR WNW. THE GFS/NAM ARE VERY DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY HANDLE            
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE GFS                
TAKES THE SYSTEM ALONG THE SE COAST JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OUT              
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND THE NAM KEEPS IT IN                    
SOUTHERN AL/GA. EITHER WAY IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY             
REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC TO PROVIDE ANY MOISTURE/LIFT FOR             
PRECIP.                                                                         
FRIDAY...                                                                       
BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THROUGH                      
CENTRAL NC SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. IF             
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...IT              
WOULD PROBABLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE WESTERN              
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...IT SEEMS LIKE THE TIMING OF               
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOC/W THE WAVE WILL MORE LIKELY BE AFTER            
SUNSET WHEN THE THERMODYNAMICS WOULD BE MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE. FCST              
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING FRIDAY                 
AFTERNOON...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AGAIN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND             
LOWER 60S DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL             
OPT TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES            
EXPECTED ON FRI MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU                
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND THICKNESSES             
INDICATE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 91-94F RANGE.                                        
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...                                                          
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SEEM TO CHANGE MUCH...WITH                   
GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY (500-1000              
J/KG OR LESS) WITH DEEP MIXING LAYERS AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALLOWING SFC            
DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S DURING PEAK            
HEATING. AS LONG AS THE LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF COAST STAYS                
SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR UPPER             
LEVEL LIFT ON SAT/SUN. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK                     
SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT TO RIPPLE INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER...AT              
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES WOULD BE              
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE WEAK                     
THERMODYNAMICS PROGGED IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS. THE GFS SHOWS MCS                 
ACTIVITY ASSOC/W A SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOP IN THE                 
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON SAT/SUN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT REMNANT MCS             
ACTIVITY OR AN MCV COULD ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE N/NW SUNDAY              
AFT/EVE...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP WELL NORTH             
OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE OF CONVECTION                  
ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFT/EVE DUE TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MCS/MCV                  
POSSIBILITY...WITH A REMINDER THAT THIS IS PROBABLY A LONG SHOT AND             
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR POPS THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE                  
NORMAL ON SAT/SUN...IN THE MID 90S. -VINCENT                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AS THE                  
WESTERLIES HOLD PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN                  
INDICATE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX ORIGINATING FROM                
UPPER MIDWEST MCS ACTIVITY AND DROPPING AROUND THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF            
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... MOST                  
LIKELY PASSING NEAR AND NORTH OF NC BASED ON THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER               
FLOW. THE OCCURRENCE... MOVEMENT... AND ULTIMATE EFFECTS OF ANY SUCH            
FEATURE REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE... AND WILL RETAIN                 
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. IF THE 06Z GFS             
TREND OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND BETTER MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN             
PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER FEW RUNS... POPS AND CLOUDS MAY NEED TO BE                 
INCREASED FURTHER. THEN MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... MID LEVEL HEIGHTS                
CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE REGION WITH THE GEFS STILL SHOWING VALUES             
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE               
FAIRLY STABLE AIR ALOFT... ALTHOUGH WITH THIS DEGREE OF BOUNDARY                
LAYER HEATING... MARGINAL POTENTIAL BUOYANCY MAY STILL BE                       
ACHIEVED... ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ISOLATED STORM CHANCES EACH                      
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RETROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE               
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER... PRODUCING A WEAKNESS DOWN THE EAST COAST              
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND DROPPING A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD THE NC/VA               
BORDER. THIS IS FAR FROM A SURE BET AND HAVE ONLY RAISED SKY COVER              
TO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW WITH NO INCREASE IN POPS OR SHIFT IN            
WIND. THICKNESSES AND A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE IN THE LOWEST 2-3              
KM SUGGEST HIGHS ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD... TYPICAL FOR THIS SORT OF PATTERN. -GIH                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
PERSISTENCE APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS.              
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE... EXPECT A                        
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY DRY COLUMN AND WARM STABLE AIR IN THE               
MID LEVELS. STRONG HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE MOISTURE              
IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR                 
CUMULUS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY            
CLEARING... AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY MVFR FOG AND HAZE                     
OVERNIGHT. POCKETS OF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT RWI AND FAY              
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER             
AS COMPARED TO INT/GSO/RDU... AND LOCAL INFLUENCES OF NEARBY CREEKS             
AT RWI COULD PRODUCE BANKS OF LIFR FOG THERE LATE TONIGHT.                      
VISIBILITIES SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER             
DAYBREAK... AND WILL AGAIN BE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO BROKEN                   
CUMULUS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT MAINLY               
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FOR FRIDAY...             
BUT REMAINING AT 8 KTS OR LESS AND LARGELY DIFFLUENT... HAMPERING               
ATTEMPTS OF DAYTIME HEATING TO INSTIGATE CONVECTION. OF INTEREST                
HOWEVER IS THE GFS WHICH BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN               
GULF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ENHANCING THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO PLACES             
LIKE FAY. HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING BROKEN VFR SKY HERE PRIOR TO               
18Z FRIDAY.                                                                     
LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK... ASIDE             
FROM AREAS OF PRIMARILY MVFR FOG AND HAZE LATE NIGHT THROUGH                    
DAYBREAK EACH DAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -GIH                          
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...HARTFIELD                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
855 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AT THIS TIME NO ADDITIONAL UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED. WATER VAPOR                   
SHOWS ONE LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA TO NRN                            
COLORADO/WYOMING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL VORT MAXES               
IN THIS FLOW SETTING OFF CLUSTERS OF TSTMS. LATER TONIGHT MODELS                
INSIST ON INCREASING 850 MB JET BUT VARY IN SPEED FROM 40 KTS FROM              
GFS TO 50 KTS ON THE RUC OVER CNTL/ERN SD. THIS SHOULD HELP                     
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WITH THE                 
RESULT BEING ONE LARGE COMPLEX OF HVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF SOUTH                   
DAKOTA. RUC INSISTS NRN EDGE OF DEVELOPMENT WILL REACH FAR SE ND                
AFTER 06Z SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS OVER MY SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY                 
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA  PEACE              
DISTRICT WEST OF EDMONTON WITH SRN EDGE OF MOISTURE AND 300 MB JET              
MOVING FROM ACROSS MONTANA INTO SASK. THIS WOULD PUT CNTRL/WRN ND               
IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THUS SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION              
THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT FROM FAR ERN MT INTO DVL REGION. MOVEMENT                 
HAS BEEN VERY VERY SLOW AND THUS LOCALLY HVY RAINS HAS OCCURRED.                
WOULD EXPECT STORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA TO CONTNUE TONIGHT BUT                      
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN TIME WITH SOUTH DAKOTA ACTIVITY TAKING OVER.                
NO 12Z OR 18Z MODELS/SREF HAD HANDLE ON ND CONVECTION SO                        
CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION IS NOT THAT GREAT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC               
POPS THRU 06Z FOR DVL REGION AND THEN LOWER CHANCES AFTERWARDS.                 
CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS INTO NRN RED RIVER VALLEY FOR ANYTHING THAT               
MAY MAKE IT EAST AND ACROSS MY SOUTH PER OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE TSTMS.              
CURRENT FCST LOW TEMPS/DEW PTS APPEAR FINE ATTM.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS IN DVL REGION AS NEW STORMS FIRING WEST OF              
AREA NR MINOT TO WILLISTON AND CONTINUED STORMS SITTING OVER WELLS              
COUNTY. STILL HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW TSTMS IN NRN ND WILL                  
EVOLVE OVERNIGHT BUT DEFINITE SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED THRU CNTRL ND                
FROM NR SIDNEY MT TO NORTH OF BISMARCK TO NR FARGO WITH GOOD                    
CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG BOUNDARY NOTED ATTM FROM NR SIDNEY MT TO                
NR GARRISON ND WHERE NEW TSTMS FIRING. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY               
TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT BUT AS 850 MB JET FOCUSES                   
SOUTHWARD INTO SD UNSURE IT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN A LOT OVERNIGHT                
OR CONTINUE. KEPT CHC POPS EASTWARD INTO GRAND FORKS AREA AND OVER              
SE ND/WCNTRL MN MAINLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS RUC WOULD STILL               
SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOP OF ELEVATED COMPLEX IN SOUTH DAKOTA                      
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MY SOUTHERN FCST AREA 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD.                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE                          
FORECAST...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF               
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF ELEVATED                   
STORMS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST IN 850-700MB MOIST ADVECTION AND                 
MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT                 
ENCOUNTERS MORE STABILITY FURTHER EAST. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON                
THE GFS SOLUTION FOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THIS NEXT EVENT                  
TONIGHT/SAT...SO WILL FOLLOW THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN SUPERIOR ALL                
SUMMER.                                                                         
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN ELEVATED BAND OF THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO                 
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE               
TO 700-850MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND 40KT OF AVAILABLE SHEAR.                  
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST SD AND                   
BRUSH SOUTHERN AREAS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND THE THREAT FOR SOME                
THUNDER.                                                                        
ON SAT...THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA                
AS STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW                  
WILL DEVELOP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.                  
BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING                 
THE AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING. IF THE REGION CAN HEAT                
OUT INTO THE MID 80S...DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR               
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.                                             
BY MONDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME               
THUNDER...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY.                                               
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE                 
(PLACING THE FA IN ZONAL FLOW). SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF PRECIP                    
ACTIVITY EVERY DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS                                 
PATTERN...TIMING/DETAILS WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR AWHILE. MODELS               
HINTING AT A STRONGER SIGNAL TOWARD PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND               
WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF THUNDER FOR TUE AND DRY FOR WED.               
BEYOND THAT...NO STRONG SIGNALS ARE APPARENT. WILL GO WITH LOW END              
POPS (AS PER HPC GUIDANCE) THU-FRI GIVEN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL                   
MOISTURE AND FLOW ALOFT TURNING A BIT MORE SW. TEMPERATURE NEAR TO              
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN LARGE SCALE PATTERN.                                
AVIATION...TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VSBY                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD               
LOWER CEILINGS (AROUND 5000 FT) UP TOWARD KFAR WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE            
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. KGFK AND KBJI SHOULD BE ENOUGH               
NORTH THAT PRECIP WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN TAF (PROBABILITY TOO LOW).            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
637 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS IN DVL REGION AS NEW STORMS FIRING WEST OF              
AREA NR MINOT TO WILLISTON AND CONTINUED STORMS SITTING OVER WELLS              
COUNTY. STILL HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW TSTMS IN NRN ND WILL                  
EVOLVE OVERNIGHT BUT DEFINITE SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED THRU CNTRL ND                
FROM NR SIDNEY MT TO NORTH OF BISMARCK TO NR FARGO WITH GOOD                    
CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG BOUNDARY NOTED ATTM FROM NR SIDNEY MT TO                
NR GARRISON ND WHERE NEW TSTMS FIRING. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY               
TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT BUT AS 850 MB JET FOCUSES                   
SOUTHWARD INTO SD UNSURE IT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN A LOT OVERNIGHT                
OR CONTINUE. KEPT CHC POPS EASTWARD INTO GRAND FORKS AREA AND OVER              
SE ND/WCNTRL MN MAINLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS RUC WOULD STILL               
SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOP OF ELEVATED COMPLEX IN SOUTH DAKOTA                      
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MY SOUTHERN FCST AREA 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE                          
FORECAST...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF               
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF ELEVATED                   
STORMS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST IN 850-700MB MOIST ADVECTION AND                 
MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT                 
ENCOUNTERS MORE STABILITY FURTHER EAST. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON                
THE GFS SOLUTION FOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THIS NEXT EVENT                  
TONIGHT/SAT...SO WILL FOLLOW THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN SUPERIOR ALL                
SUMMER.                                                                         
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN ELEVATED BAND OF THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO                 
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE               
TO 700-850MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND 40KT OF AVAILABLE SHEAR.                  
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST SD AND                   
BRUSH SOUTHERN AREAS WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND THE THREAT FOR SOME                
THUNDER.                                                                        
ON SAT...THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA                
AS STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW                  
WILL DEVELOP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.                  
BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING                 
THE AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING. IF THE REGION CAN HEAT                
OUT INTO THE MID 80S...DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR               
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.                                             
BY MONDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME               
THUNDER...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY.                                               
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE                 
(PLACING THE FA IN ZONAL FLOW). SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF PRECIP                    
ACTIVITY EVERY DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS                                 
PATTERN...TIMING/DETAILS WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR AWHILE. MODELS               
HINTING AT A STRONGER SIGNAL TOWARD PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND               
WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF THUNDER FOR TUE AND DRY FOR WED.               
BEYOND THAT...NO STRONG SIGNALS ARE APPARENT. WILL GO WITH LOW END              
POPS (AS PER HPC GUIDANCE) THU-FRI GIVEN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL                   
MOISTURE AND FLOW ALOFT TURNING A BIT MORE SW. TEMPERATURE NEAR TO              
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN LARGE SCALE PATTERN.                                
AVIATION...TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VSBY                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD               
LOWER CEILINGS (AROUND 5000 FT) UP TOWARD KFAR WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE            
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. KGFK AND KBJI SHOULD BE ENOUGH               
NORTH THAT PRECIP WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN TAF (PROBABILITY TOO LOW).            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1035 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH               
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.                  
THEN THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A                
WARM FRONT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTING FCST AREA ATTM. ISOLD CONVECTION HAD                  
FIRED ALONG BNDRY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR IN THE WHITEWATER                        
VLY...FROM PREBLE CO EAST INTO GREENE CO. APPEARS THAT SOME LO LVL              
CONV IS AIDING THE DVLPMNT. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MSTLY CLR ACRS                  
FCST AREA.                                                                      
HAVE READJUSTED 20 POPS FOR ISOLD TSTMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH               
OF I-70 AND EXTENDED THEM OUT THRU 1-2 AM. 00Z RUC INDCG LO LVL                 
CONV WILL WEAKEN AS FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH...WITH                
ANY REMAINING CONVECTION DYING OUT. MVFR HZ/BR WILL BE CONFINED TO              
SRN FCST AREA WHERE SFC DEWPTS WILL REMAIN HIGHER. MUCH DRIER                   
AIRMASS NORTH OF BNDRY (EVIDENCED BY DEWPTS IN M/U50S IN NW OHIO)               
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT. REST OF FCST LOOKED GOOD. ZONE                
AND GRID UPDATES OUT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON                      
SATURDAY. NOT MUCH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY              
FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.                     
THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV GUID NUMBERS.               
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AND EAST LATE SATURDAY                   
NIGHT. EXPECT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST AT                
NOSE OF THE LO LEVEL JET. WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE            
POSITION AND HAVE CHC POPS THERE WITH SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE SW. AT                
THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE SE DRY ON SAT NIGHT. AGAIN PREFER LOWS                  
A LTL WARMER THAN GUID.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE                  
CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW HOT WEATHER TO PERSIST.                                  
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY IN THE VICINITY OF             
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. A DRY PERIOD WILL FOLLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY            
AFTER THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAIL A SLOW MOVING              
COLD FRONT LYING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH                   
FRIDAY...WHICH WARRANTS LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.                      
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EACH DAY. THOUGH 1000-850              
MB THICKNESS STILL SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 90S...STAYED CONSERVATIVE              
AND KEPT CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE IN LOW TO MID 90S.                               
WITH THE HEAT AND INCREASING HUMIDITY BUILDING IN NEXT WEEK...HAVE              
A MENTION OF POTENTIAL HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN HWO                
NEXT MON AND TUE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
COLD FRONT SHWNG UP NICELY ON VIS SAT THIS EVNG...ROUGHLY LOCATED               
FROM NEAR KMFD W/SW TO NEAR KMIE AND NORTH OF KIND. ISOLD -TSRA                 
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ALONG BNDRY. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SOME PCPN                
WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK UNTIL THE                   
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS BY LATE EVNG...AND HAVE                   
MAINTAINED CB WORDING FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. FURTHER                          
SOUTH...ISOLD -TSRA HAVE DVLPD OFF TO SE OF KCVG/KLUK/KILN AND                  
WILL NOT IMPACT THESE TERMINALS. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN WAKE OF                  
FRNTL BNDRY WILL ADVECT INTO NRN FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...                      
RESULTING IN MSTLY CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. FURTHER SOUTH...SCT                 
MID LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. MUCH OF THE HZ               
HAS MIXED OUT ACRS SRN FCST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MIXED                
DOWN FROM THE MID LVLS. EXPECT MVFR HZ/BR TO REDVLP LATER TONIGHT               
WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK/KILN.                     
CI WILL DRIFT INTO REGION ON SAT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT APPCHG FROM                
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. WILL SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN              
BUT CI WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTN/ERLY                
EVNG. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AS SFC HI PRES                       
TRAVERSES GRT LKS...DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN WAY OF HZ DURING DAY               
SAT.                                                                            
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...AR                                                                 
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO                                                            
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1005 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND BUILDS OVER             
THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE            
GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUN...BUT                  
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                                
THE LATEST RUC HAS AN H5 SHORT WAVE BISECTING THE FA. THIS PLACES               
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN NVA...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY                   
CONVECTION THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING AHEAD OF THE            
WAVE EITHER...SO I/VE LOWERED ALL POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS. I                 
DECREASED SKY COVER IN THE GRIDS AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST             
PART...AND THE CI ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BAND TO OUR SOUTH             
HAS MADE LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE VERY FEW                
CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS.                                                      
GFS AND NAM BOTH KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY...AND THE WAVE TRACKING              
ALONG IT...S OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT. FCST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW               
WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAP CONVECTION OVER MTNS.            
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN-EVE POPS OVER MTNS WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE...            
AFTN HEATING AND CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES                    
BUILDING AND INCREASING THICKNESS OVER AREA. TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN            
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPPER 70S AND 80S IN THE MTNS.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
H5 RIDGE WILL BECOME A MORE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN                  
APPALACHIANS SUN AND MON. COVERAGE WITHIN THE CWA WILL REMAIN QUITE             
LOW ON SUNDAY DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND H6...LIKELY LIMITING        
CAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG. SREF/MOS POPS SUPPORT ONLY RIDGE TOP CHCS             
WITH LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARM LLVL                
THICKNESSES AND FAIR INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN SUN MAX TEMPS 3-7              
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY NW...POSSIBLY                
LEADING TO AN MCS PASSING OVER NRN NC/VIRGINA SUN EVENING...NORTH OF            
THE CWA.                                                                        
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONDAY. REMNANT NOCTURNAL                 
DEBRIS CLOUDS...WARM LLVL THICKNESS...AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY               
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUN. USING A BLEND             
OF MAINLY GMOS AND MEX...I EXPECT TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE MID               
90S EAST AND AROUND 90 IN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE TRIPLE DIGIT RECORD              
HIGHS FOR KGSP AND KCLT FOR THE 6TH OF AUGUST WILL NOT BE THREATENED.           
HOWEVER...THE RECORD AT KAVL IS 92 SET BACK IN 2002...THE CURRENT               
FORECAST IS 90. DWPTS SHOULD MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT              
INDEX VALUES WITHIN A 3 DEGREE SPREAD FROM THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE.              
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE A LITTLE                 
HIGHER OVER THE MTNS THAN ON SUNDAY. A WEAKER INVERSION...QUICKER STORM         
MOTIONS...AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT                   
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES. ISO CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED                 
WITHIN THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL COUNTIES...WITH LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE              
FURTHER EAST.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
CENTER OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST                  
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM TUES THROUGH THE            
END OF THE WEEK. A FEW S/W TROFS MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD WELL NORTH OF            
THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE                 
ACROSS THE FA. ONLY SURFACE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY               
FEATURED BY THE 06Z GFS THAT REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER                
MIDWEST AND WASHES OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN               
PLACE...AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...HOT             
AND DRY FORECAST APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE            
A BIT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS            
ARE FEATURED MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS WARM MID              
LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.                 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE               
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MVFR FOG AND HAZE EXPECTED AT A FEW SITES. AT                
KAVL THERE WAS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY LOW CIGS AND LOW VSBYS                
LAST NIGHT. THAT WAS A LITTLE SURPRISING. SEEING AS THE AIRPORT HAD             
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY...THEY SHOULD GO DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT...AND            
I HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS WITH EVEN WORSE                 
CONDITIONS IN A TEMP GROUP. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...BUT                   
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE SE                    
COAST...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL WIND DIRECTIONS TMRW.               
THE GFS TAKES THE FLOW NE ACROSS THE FA. I THINK THIS IS OVERDONE               
AND THAT THE LEE TROUGH WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE MASS FIELDS.            
THEREFORE I KEEP THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. EXPECT ISOLATED TSTMS              
AGAIN TMRW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.                                       
AVIATION OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG AND ISOLD AFTN-EVE              
SHWRS/TSTMS...MAINLY MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE             
OF NEXT WEEK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL HAVE            
TO BE WATCHED BUT LATEST FCST TRENDS KEEP MOST MOISTURE WITH THIS               
SYSTEM S AND E OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR                  
     NCZ036-057-069>072-082.                                                    
SC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR                  
     SCZ001>008-010>013-019.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RB                                                                   
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RB                                                           
SHORT TERM...NED                                                                
LONG TERM...BSH                                                                 
AVIATION...MCAVOY/RB                                                            
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1101 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING TO UP POPS               
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. FOR NOW HAVE NOT ADJUSTED TEMPS...BUT MAY                 
NEED TO IF CLOUDS HOLD IN LONGER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE LATEST                
MODEL RUN OF THE NAM DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY SURPRISES.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.                                         
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH IMPENDING PCPN                    
EVENT AND TIMING.                                                               
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT 5H WAVE TRAVERSING OVER               
THE TOP OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE...HELPING TO FLATTEN FEATURE. WATER              
VAP PIX SHOW FEATURE JUST NOW COMING INTO WRN WY WITH INCREASING                
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PRECEDING FEATURE. REGIONAL 88D MOSIAC SHOWS              
AREA OF -SHRA/EMBEDDED -TSRA MOVING INTO FAR SW SD WHERE AREA OF                
BEST WAA STILL EXISTS.                                                          
BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW INCREASING 7H THETA-E FORCING SETTING UP                  
THROUGH DAY...BUT BEST 85H THETA-E FORCING WAITS UNTIL LATER IN                 
THE AFTN. MODELS SHOW PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN CWA A BIT                  
LATER THAN INHERITED WX GRIDS HAD...WITH THE 06Z RUC WAITING UNTIL              
NEARLY 18Z BEFORE BRINGING PCPN INTO FAR WRN COUNTIES. HAVE SLOWED              
DOWN ONSET OF PCPN 3 TO 6 HOURS FOR MOST AREAS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS              
MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURNING VERY QUICKLY TO                 
AREA...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 60S DWPTS LOCATED ACROSS                 
PARTS OF WRN NEB. GIVEN STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH THAT SETS UP LATER               
TODAY...ADVECTING THESE HIGHER DWPTS INTO THE CWA MAKES SENSE.                  
ALSO NOTICED THAT BY 00Z SATURDAY BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING 2+ INCHES              
PWATS INTO AREA. NAM 310K LAYERS SHOWS SPEC HUMIDITY OF 12 G/KG                 
WITH THE GFS 10 TO 12 G/KG MOISTURE. BY 09Z SATURDAY...BUFKIT                   
SHOWS 2.28" PWATS FOR KABR. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF LIKELY TSRA               
AND ADDED MENTION OF HVY RAIN AS WELL. 50+ KT 85H JET SETS UP                   
TONIGHT HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. ENVISION                   
ISOLD CELLS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT              
LATE AFTERNOON...TREKING ACROSS NRN 1/2 OF SD THROUGH EARLY                     
MORNING HOURS.                                                                  
LINGERING 7H/85H THETA-E FORCING...KEEPS TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE                
EAST DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY. DOWNGLIDE FINALLY SETS IN BY 18Z              
SATURDAY 305-310K LAYERS...HELPING TO END THE RAINFALL CHANCES.                 
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM                  
REACHING TRUE POTENTIAL...AND LOWERED THEM A BIT MORE THAN WHAT                 
WAS INHERITED.                                                                  
DRY WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NEUTRAL/CAA REGIME               
SETTING IN AND LAYERS DRYING OUT.                                               
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS PINPOINTING BEST              
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH IN FAST UPPER LEVEL               
ZONAL FLOW. MODELS STILL SHOWING FLAT UPPER RIDGE STARTING OFF THE              
PERIOD ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO ZONAL FLOW WITH A                  
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST. MODELS SHOWING NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES                    
MOVING EAST WITHIN FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES DANCING                    
AROUND THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL BE HARD TO NAIL DOWN BEST CHANCES                
FOR PRECIP SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS WX/POP GRIDS THROUGH                
THE EXTENDED. DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY                  
AFTERNOON AS NAM AND GFS SHOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING                  
SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...AND GENERATING PRECIP ALONG IT.              
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM TO HOT SIDE WITH 80S AND 90S                   
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO SEE AN INCREASE              
IN HUMIDITY BY SUNDAY AS 60S DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA.                
WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK WAVES/SFC              
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY SEE A HANDFUL                
OF PRECIP EPISODES SCATTERED ABOUT THE DAKOTAS. BUT AS MENTIONED                
PREVIOUSLY...VERY HARD TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS IN TIMING/LOCATIONS               
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER                            
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...CIGS AND                
VSBYS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE KMBG/KPIR REGIONS                   
COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. &&                    
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TDK                                                                    
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...TMT                                                                 
AVIATION...TDK                                                                  
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
317 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.                                         
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH IMPENDING PCPN                    
EVENT AND TIMING.                                                               
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT 5H WAVE TRAVERSING OVER               
THE TOP OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE...HELPING TO FLATTEN FEATURE. WATER              
VAP PIX SHOW FEATURE JUST NOW COMING INTO WRN WY WITH INCREASING                
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PRECEDING FEATURE. REGIONAL 88D MOSIAC SHOWS              
AREA OF -SHRA/EMBEDDED -TSRA MOVING INTO FAR SW SD WHERE AREA OF                
BEST WAA STILL EXISTS.                                                          
BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW INCREASING 7H THETA-E FORCING SETTING UP                  
THROUGH DAY...BUT BEST 85H THETA-E FORCING WAITS UNTIL LATER IN                 
THE AFTN. MODELS SHOW PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN CWA A BIT                  
LATER THAN INHERITED WX GRIDS HAD...WITH THE 06Z RUC WAITING UNTIL              
NEARLY 18Z BEFORE BRINGING PCPN INTO FAR WRN COUNTIES. HAVE SLOWED              
DOWN ONSET OF PCPN 3 TO 6 HOURS FOR MOST AREAS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS              
MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURNING VERY QUICKLY TO                 
AREA...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 60S DWPTS LOCATED ACROSS                 
PARTS OF WRN NEB. GIVEN STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH THAT SETS UP LATER               
TODAY...ADVECTING THESE HIGHER DWPTS INTO THE CWA MAKES SENSE.                  
ALSO NOTICED THAT BY 00Z SATURDAY BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING 2+ INCHES              
PWATS INTO AREA. NAM 310K LAYERS SHOWS SPEC HUMIDITY OF 12 G/KG                 
WITH THE GFS 10 TO 12 G/KG MOISTURE. BY 09Z SATURDAY...BUFKIT                   
SHOWS 2.28" PWATS FOR KABR. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF LIKELY TSRA               
AND ADDED MENTION OF HVY RAIN AS WELL. 50+ KT 85H JET SETS UP                   
TONIGHT HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. ENVISION                   
ISOLD CELLS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT              
LATE AFTERNOON...TREKING ACROSS NRN 1/2 OF SD THROUGH EARLY                     
MORNING HOURS.                                                                  
LINGERING 7H/85H THETA-E FORCING...KEEPS TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE                
EAST DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY. DOWNGLIDE FINALLY SETS IN BY 18Z              
SATURDAY 305-310K LAYERS...HELPING TO END THE RAINFALL CHANCES.                 
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM                  
REACHING TRUE POTENTIAL...AND LOWERED THEM A BIT MORE THAN WHAT                 
WAS INHERITED.                                                                  
DRY WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NEUTRAL/CAA REGIME               
SETTING IN AND LAYERS DRYING OUT.                                               
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS PINPOINTING BEST              
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH IN FAST UPPER LEVEL               
ZONAL FLOW. MODELS STILL SHOWING FLAT UPPER RIDGE STARTING OFF THE              
PERIOD ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO ZONAL FLOW WITH A                  
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST. MODELS SHOWING NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES                    
MOVING EAST WITHIN FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES DANCING                    
AROUND THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL BE HARD TO NAIL DOWN BEST CHANCES                
FOR PRECIP SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS WX/POP GRIDS THROUGH                
THE EXTENDED. DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY                  
AFTERNOON AS NAM AND GFS SHOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING                  
SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...AND GENERATING PRECIP ALONG IT.              
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM TO HOT SIDE WITH 80S AND 90S                   
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ALSO SEE AN INCREASE              
IN HUMIDITY BY SUNDAY AS 60S DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA.                
WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK WAVES/SFC              
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY SEE A HANDFUL                
OF PRECIP EPISODES SCATTERED ABOUT THE DAKOTAS. BUT AS MENTIONED                
PREVIOUSLY...VERY HARD TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS IN TIMING/LOCATIONS               
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TAF/TWEB              
LOCATIONS. EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FT. AS AN                  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS                       
AFTERNOON...-TSRA/TSRAS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS               
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DROP                 
INTO MVFR WITHIN ANY TSRAS. THIS TSRA ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE              
EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...TMT                                                                 
AVIATION...TMT                                                                  
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1116 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADJUSTED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO BETTER REFLECT CLOUD COVER OVER SW                   
CWA. BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A HAIR OVER WESTERN CWA TO                     
ACCOUNT FOR WAA THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS OVER EASTERN CWA TO BETTER          
ACCOUNT FOR DAYTIME HEATING...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT              
WINDS. OTHERWISE...NO REAL CHANGES MADE AS HIGH PRESSURE                        
CURRENTLY SITS JUST NORTH OF CWA. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM                     
EARLIER THIS MORNING IN WESTERN STANLEY COUNTY HAVE                             
CEASED...LEAVING BEHIND SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                        
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY                  
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAN WHATS BEEN SEEN                
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S              
ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S. FARTHER WEST OVER WESTERN                 
SD...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND ISO SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER                
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS DECENT THETA E ADVECTION FROM 850-700 MB               
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. RUC/HI RES NAM SHOWING THIS PERSISTING                 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK INTO                 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD BUT WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.                           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING                
ALLOWING FOR FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH FAIRLY                  
LIGHT WINDS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST TO OUR                 
EAST...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A 25-30 KT LLJ ACROSS WESTERN SD.                
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF THETA E ADVECTION GOING ON ALSO...SO HAVE              
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.                            
ALTHOUGH...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON               
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN RESPONSE                
TO A STRONGER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. STILL                  
SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE WAVE AND WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR                  
PRECIP WILL BE. GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH BEST                     
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN SD...WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER NORTH. SREF               
MEMBERS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ALSO. GENERALLY LEFT               
WX/POP GRIDS AS IS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.                                            
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                         
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE                     
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS JUST SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO                
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW OVER                 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL...WITH A SERIES OF                     
SHORTWAVES TRACKING EASTWARD IN THE FLOW. A BROAD TROUGH OF                     
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS DURING THIS                    
TIME...KEEPING THE REGION IN A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN. A                      
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON                         
TUESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SLIDES OVER THE AREA ON                    
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVES ARE NOT REAL EASY TO TIME...BUT THE                   
MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                
WILL BE DRY. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP A SMALL POP GOING THROUGH                    
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF              
THE HIGH MOVING IN.                                                             
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON SATURDAY AS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER               
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE AREA. WILL THEN SEE                  
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN JUST A HINT OF               
A WARM UP BY WEDNESDAY UNDER MORE SUNSHINE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST SCT MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA.                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...GIONTA                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...DORN                                                                 
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
336 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                        
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY                  
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAN WHATS BEEN SEEN                
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S              
ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S. FARTHER WEST OVER WESTERN                 
SD...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AND ISO SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER                
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS DECENT THETA E ADVECTION FROM 850-700 MB               
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. RUC/HI RES NAM SHOWING THIS PERSISTING                 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK INTO                 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD BUT WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.                           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING                
ALLOWING FOR FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH FAIRLY                  
LIGHT WINDS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST TO OUR                 
EAST...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A 25-30 KT LLJ ACROSS WESTERN SD.                
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF THETA E ADVECTION GOING ON ALSO...SO HAVE              
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.                            
ALTHOUGH...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON               
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN RESPONSE                
TO A STRONGER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. STILL                  
SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE WAVE AND WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR                  
PRECIP WILL BE. GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH BEST                     
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN SD...WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER NORTH. SREF               
MEMBERS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ALSO. GENERALLY LEFT               
WX/POP GRIDS AS IS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.                                            
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                         
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE                     
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS JUST SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO                
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW OVER                 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL...WITH A SERIES OF                     
SHORTWAVES TRACKING EASTWARD IN THE FLOW. A BROAD TROUGH OF                     
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS DURING THIS                    
TIME...KEEPING THE REGION IN A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN. A                      
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON                         
TUESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SLIDES OVER THE AREA ON                    
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVES ARE NOT REAL EASY TO TIME...BUT THE                   
MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                
WILL BE DRY. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP A SMALL POP GOING THROUGH                    
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF              
THE HIGH MOVING IN.                                                             
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON SATURDAY AS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER               
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE AREA. WILL THEN SEE                  
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN JUST A HINT OF               
A WARM UP BY WEDNESDAY UNDER MORE SUNSHINE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A SCT-BKN                
DECK OF CLOUDS ABOVE 7000 ARE LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER                 
THROUGH 14Z...WITH THE REST OF THE REGION SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR                   
SKIES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
855 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 600 MB RUC/NAM STREAMLINES                    
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE COAST FROM THE                
EAST. ANTICIPATE THAT CONVECTION WL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER              
TROUGH AXIS MOVES WEST. WL RETAIN THE CURRENT FCST OF CONVECTION                
DEVELOPING AFT 06Z SAT OVR THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH ACTIVITY                   
APPROACHING THE COAST BY 12Z SAT. CURRENT SFC MIN TEMP FCST                     
REASONABLE BASED IN PART ON CURRENT SFC DEW POINTS. BASED ON                    
EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SCALE MSLP PATTERN OVERNIGHT...WIND/SEAS WL                   
REMAIN WELL BELOW SCEC CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH BRIEF GUSTY CONDITIONS               
PSBL NEAR CONVECTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST                        
WARRANTED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN MIST ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z-14Z              
WITH LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FOG FROM 10Z-13Z. ISOLATED TO                  
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 10Z               
ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AROUND             
20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  92  76  94  78  /  10  30  10  20  20                     
VICTORIA          75  93  76  93  77  /  20  30  10  20  20                     
LAREDO            78  97  79 101  80  /  20  20  10  10  10                     
ALICE             74  95  75  98  77  /  20  30  10  20  10                     
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  92  81  /  20  30  10  20  20                     
COTULLA           74  96  75  99  76  /  20  20  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        75  94  77  97  79  /  20  30  10  20  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  93  81  /  20  30  10  20  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WC/87...SHORT TERM                                                              
BB/85...AVIATION                                                                
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
715 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONVECTION DYING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS EVIDENCED BY MAJOR                     
REDUCTION IN RADAR RETURNS AND RAPID CLOUD TOP WARMING VIA IR                   
LOOP. LATEST RUNS OF NAM/RUC SUGGEST LINGERING ACTIVITY ON THE                  
CAPROCK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH NAM SUGGESTING SOME                     
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD SUNRISE                 
FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK IMPULSE MOVING WEST OVER THE REGION. OF               
COURSE...VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONVECTION                 
COULD STILL FORM WHEREVER ENOUGH FORCING OCCURS. WILL GO AHEAD AT               
LET FFW RUN UNTIL 8 PM...BUT DOUBT EXTENSION WILL BE NECESSARY AT               
THIS POINT. WILL LOWER POPS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE REMAINDER               
OF THE EVENING IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS EXPECTED.                
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE                   
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN RECENT RAINS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS              
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE NEAR CHILDRESS AND OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE                
EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
INTERESTING BUT NOT HIGHLY UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE OF LANDSPOUTS AND                 
FUNNELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS              
IN CLOUDS AROUND LUBBOCK AREA CREATED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR                 
BRIEF SPINUPS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND             
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY GENERATION VIA DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.             
REPORTS QUICKLY WANED ONCE DEVELOPING SHOWERS CREATED DOWNDRAFTS AND            
AIRMASS STABILIZED SOME WITH RECURRENCE OF THICK CLOUD COVER.                   
ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE              
STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES WWD. REPORTS            
CONFIRM REMOTE SENSING ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING THREE            
INCHES PER HOUR FROM CELL MERGERS AND HEAVIEST CORES. WITH                      
CONVECTION HEAVILY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE OUTFLOW AND CELL INTERACTIONS            
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FURTHER LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS                   
ESPECIALLY AS CORES MOVE OVER MORE HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS OF SOUTH             
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. AS A RESULT HAVE CONTEMPLATED SHORT FUSE             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH BACK EDGE OF             
PRECIPITATION STILL IN SW OK...ENDING TIME OF PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE             
ADJUSTED LATER AS WELL. 12Z NAM AND 18Z RUN SUPPORTED IDEA OF STRONG            
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MOVING INTO AREA THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD AID IN              
KEEPING COMPLEX GOING INTO THE NIGHT. SHRTWV ACROSS RED RIVER                   
OFFERING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR STORMS WILL ROTATE W OVERNIGHT                  
BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING AND               
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THIS FEATURE TO PRODUCE CHANCE              
OF PRECIP AGAIN ACROSS SW CORNER ON FRI. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING                  
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED BUT STILL COULD SEE TERRAIN DRIVEN                
STORMS ALONG THE CAPROCK AS WELL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH                    
DECREASING CLOUDS IN WAKE OF SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB            
INTO THE LOWER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY.                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
12Z MODEL SUITE AND GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH             
LITTLE CHANGES. AS THE LAST UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST INTO             
NM AND ARIZ...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST OVER TX/OKLA            
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THEN CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND SETTLE              
IN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF               
NEXT WEEK. WE MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN                
ZONES FRI NIGHT AND THEN IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR             
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP SAT MORN AS THE MID-UPR LVLS OF              
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. THIS POSSIBILITY MAY HINGE ON HOW              
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE            
THE WET SOILS.                                                                  
OTHERWISE...THE WELL ADVERTISED WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED.             
BUT WE DO EXPECT THIS TO TREND SLOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATED.              
BY MONDAY...AS WEST TEXAS BECOMES SITUATED MORE ON THE WESTERN                  
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH                 
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S....HEIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO                    
DECREASE. THE RESULTING DEEP SW FLOW AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS               
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS QUITE WARM THOUGH. THIS PATTERN WITH MORE                     
WIND FLOW NORMAL TO THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WILL ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME LEE-TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG             
THE TX/NM BORDER. AS INDICATED PREVIOUSLY...CONVERGENCE IN THE                  
TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING ANY AFTN             
OR EVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO GRIDS ATTM. IN                     
ADDITION...THE GFS INDICATES THAT A WEAK SHTWV TROUGH MOVING OUT OF             
THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE MAY DRIVE A COLD              
FRONT SOUTH...POSSIBLY INTO THE PANHANDLES TUE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH                  
EXPECT IT TO STALL OUR NORTH OF THE CWA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY            
PUSH FROM OUTFLOWS.                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
COULD SEE BRIEF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT IN WAKE OF CONVECTION ACROSS            
SOUTHERN PNHDL FRI MORNING. DEGREE OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN THIS                
AREA WILL FIGURE INTO HOW DENSE THE FOG GETS BUT IFR VSBYS NOT OUT              
OF THE QUESTION. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO ATTM TO ONLY HINT AT IN               
TAFS. EXPECT LOW CIGS NEAR 1K FEET BY 12Z FRI AT KLBB WITH MVFR CIGS            
POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING. TSTM CHCS WILL BE                    
DIMINISHING ON FRI HOWEVER ISOLATED EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN VCNTY              
KLBB NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        65  87  66  90  66 /  40  20  10  10  10                          
TULIA         67  89  67  91  67 /  40  20  10  10  10                          
PLAINVIEW     67  88  67  90  68 /  40  20  10  10  10                          
LEVELLAND     66  87  67  91  68 /  40  30  10  10  10                          
LUBBOCK       67  89  70  91  70 /  40  30  10  10  10                          
BROWNFIELD    68  87  68  91  69 /  50  30  20  10  10                          
CHILDRESS     71  92  72  95  71 /  30  10  10  10  10                          
SPUR          71  90  70  92  71 /  40  20  10  10  10                          
ASPERMONT     71  91  72  94  72 /  40  20  10  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
ZONES: TXZ029>032-035>038-041>044.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/13                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                                
MAIN CONVECTIVE SHOW IS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE TRACON RIGHT                     
NOW...BUT AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY                 
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.  WILL             
SHOW VCTS/TEMPO TSRA FOR METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON                  
HOURS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 23Z-0Z AND QUIET/VFR CONDITIONS             
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WILL SHOW A TEMPO FOR                
MVFR BR/HZ AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.                    
AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT DURING THE NEXT DAY...SO WILL HAVE NO                      
CONVECTION TOMORROW MORNING IN TAFS...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
WILL REMAIN FOR SOME MVFR CUMULUS IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.  TR.92             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1000 AM                                                                         
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 88 DEGREES...WELL WITHIN              
REACH BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR WHERE RAIN IS                 
CURRENTLY FALLING. HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO CHANCE FROM              
SLIGHT CHANCE BECAUSE OF INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...PACKAGE REMAINS               
SIMILAR.  84                                                                    
.AVIATION...                                                                    
710 AM                                                                          
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY                   
SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CEILINGS HAVE                
BEEN A HEADACHE...AS THEY HAVE GONE FROM SCT-BKN 004-010                        
OVERNIGHT. HAVE JUST PLACED SCT006 WITH A TEMPO 5SM BR BKN006 FOR               
THE 12-15Z PERIOD. WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WACO AREA                  
HAVE KEPT TEMPO SHRA AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PLACED CB IN                 
THE TAFS FOR THE 17-01Z PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007/                          
UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS MORNING                  
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ACTIVITY IS INCREASING TO THE WEST                
SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME               
MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS.                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007/                           
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH               
TEXAS...THEN MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS BUILD IN WITH MINIMAL                  
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE              
METROPLEX AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS                   
BARELY DISCERNIBLE...BUT BEST CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND                    
TIGHTER THETA-E GRADIENT RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA.                    
CURRENT ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY A WEAK               
S/W MOVING SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA AS INDICATED BY THE 7Z RUC WIND                
ANALYSIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. NEW                 
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE DRIVEN BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND ADDITIONAL              
BOUNDARY INTERACTION...SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGH...BUT NOT                     
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL              
DAYS. DO EXPECT HIGHEST CHANCES TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND                
WEST TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. PWS STILL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES            
AND STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS WILL MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND             
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE             
TRICKY WITH THE PRECIP/CLOUDS BUT LAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN TEMPS IN              
THE LO/MID 90S...SO SEE NO OVERWHELMING REASON TO DEVIATE DESPITE               
MOS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90.                                             
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN STRONGER ON FRIDAY WITH PWS COMING DOWN SO              
DONT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE                 
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM MAKING IT              
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO                  
RISE INTO NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE AOA 100 DEGREES                
MANY AREAS BY MONDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  97  76  98 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
WACO, TX              94  74  97  74  98 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             93  74  94  72  95 /  20  10  10  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            93  74  95  73  96 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  95  73  96 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            94  77  96  77  97 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           93  74  96  74  96 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  95  74  96 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  94  74  95 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
58/91/58                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1000 AM                                                                         
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 88 DEGREES...WELL WITHIN              
REACH BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR WHERE RAIN IS                 
CURRENTLY FALLING. HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO CHANCE FROM              
SLIGHT CHANCE BECAUSE OF INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...PACKAGE REMAINS               
SIMILAR.  84                                                                    
.AVIATION...                                                                    
710 AM                                                                          
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY                   
SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CEILINGS HAVE                
BEEN A HEADACHE...AS THEY HAVE GONE FROM SCT-BKN 004-010                        
OVERNIGHT. HAVE JUST PLACED SCT006 WITH A TEMPO 5SM BR BKN006 FOR               
THE 12-15Z PERIOD. WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WACO AREA                  
HAVE KEPT TEMPO SHRA AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PLACED CB IN                 
THE TAFS FOR THE 17-01Z PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007/                          
UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS MORNING                  
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ACTIVITY IS INCREASING TO THE WEST                
SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME               
MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS.                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007/                           
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH               
TEXAS...THEN MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS BUILD IN WITH MINIMAL                  
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE              
METROPLEX AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS                   
BARELY DISCERNIBLE...BUT BEST CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND                    
TIGHTER THETA-E GRADIENT RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA.                    
CURRENT ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY A WEAK               
S/W MOVING SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA AS INDICATED BY THE 7Z RUC WIND                
ANALYSIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. NEW                 
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE DRIVEN BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND ADDITIONAL              
BOUNDARY INTERACTION...SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGH...BUT NOT                     
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL              
DAYS. DO EXPECT HIGHEST CHANCES TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND                
WEST TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. PWS STILL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES            
AND STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS WILL MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND             
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE             
TRICKY WITH THE PRECIP/CLOUDS BUT LAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN TEMPS IN              
THE LO/MID 90S...SO SEE NO OVERWHELMING REASON TO DEVIATE DESPITE               
MOS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90.                                             
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN STRONGER ON FRIDAY WITH PWS COMING DOWN SO              
DONT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE                 
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM MAKING IT              
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO                  
RISE INTO NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE AOA 100 DEGREES                
MANY AREAS BY MONDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  97  76  98 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
WACO, TX              94  74  97  74  98 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             93  74  94  72  95 /  20  10  10  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            93  74  95  73  96 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  95  73  96 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            94  77  96  77  97 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           93  74  96  74  96 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  95  74  96 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  94  74  95 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
58/91/58                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
710 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY                   
SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CEILINGS HAVE                
BEEN A HEADACHE...AS THEY HAVE GONE FROM SCT-BKN 004-010                        
OVERNIGHT. HAVE JUST PLACED SCT006 WITH A TEMPO 5SM BR BKN006 FOR               
THE 12-15Z PERIOD. WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WACO AREA                  
HAVE KEPT TEMPO SHRA AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PLACED CB IN                 
THE TAFS FOR THE 17-01Z PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007/                          
UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS MORNING                  
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ACTIVITY IS INCREASING TO THE WEST                
SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME               
MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS.                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007/                           
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH               
TEXAS...THEN MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS BUILD IN WITH MINIMAL                  
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE              
METROPLEX AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS                   
BARELY DISCERNIBLE...BUT BEST CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND                    
TIGHTER THETA-E GRADIENT RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA.                    
CURRENT ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY A WEAK               
S/W MOVING SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA AS INDICATED BY THE 7Z RUC WIND                
ANALYSIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. NEW                 
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE DRIVEN BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND ADDITIONAL              
BOUNDARY INTERACTION...SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGH...BUT NOT                     
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL              
DAYS. DO EXPECT HIGHEST CHANCES TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND                
WEST TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. PWS STILL IN EXCESS OF 2                   
INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS WILL MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS              
AGAIN WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE PRECIP/CLOUDS BUT LAST FEW DAYS HAVE              
SEEN TEMPS IN THE LO/MID 90S...SO SEE NO OVERWHELMING REASON TO                 
DEVIATE DESPITE MOS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90.                             
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN STRONGER ON FRIDAY WITH PWS COMING DOWN SO              
DONT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE                 
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM MAKING IT              
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO                  
RISE INTO NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE AOA 100 DEGREES                
MANY AREAS BY MONDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  97  76  98 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
WACO, TX              94  74  97  74  98 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             93  74  94  72  95 /  20  10  10  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            93  74  95  73  96 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  95  73  96 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            94  77  96  77  97 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           93  74  96  74  96 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  95  74  96 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  94  74  95 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
58/91/58                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
616 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS MORNING                 
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ACTIVITY IS INCREASING TO THE WEST                
SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME               
MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007/                          
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH               
TEXAS...THEN MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS BUILD IN WITH MINIMAL                  
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE              
METROPLEX AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS                   
BARELY DISCERNIBLE...BUT BEST CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND                    
TIGHTER THETA-E GRADIENT RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA.                    
CURRENT ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY A WEAK               
S/W MOVING SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA AS INDICATED BY THE 7Z RUC WIND                
ANALYSIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. NEW                 
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE DRIVEN BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND ADDITIONAL              
BOUNDARY INTERACTION...SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGH...BUT NOT                     
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL              
DAYS. DO EXPECT HIGHEST CHANCES TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND                
WEST TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. PWS STILL IN EXCESS OF 2                   
INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS WILL MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS              
AGAIN WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE PRECIP/CLOUDS BUT LAST FEW DAYS HAVE              
SEEN TEMPS IN THE LO/MID 90S...SO SEE NO OVERWHELMING REASON TO                 
DEVIATE DESPITE MOS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90.                             
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN STRONGER ON FRIDAY WITH PWS COMING DOWN SO              
DONT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE                 
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM MAKING IT              
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO                  
RISE INTO NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE AOA 100 DEGREES                
MANY AREAS BY MONDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  97  76  98 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
WACO, TX              94  74  97  74  98 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             93  74  94  72  95 /  20  10  10  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            93  74  95  73  96 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  95  73  96 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            94  77  96  77  97 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           93  74  96  74  96 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  95  74  96 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  94  74  95 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DUNN                                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
320 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES              
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...THEN MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS BUILD IN WITH             
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. SCATTERED               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST             
OF THE METROPLEX AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY               
IS BARELY DISCERNIBLE...BUT BEST CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND                 
TIGHTER THETA-E GRADIENT RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA.                    
CURRENT ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY A WEAK               
S/W MOVING SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA AS INDICATED BY THE 7Z RUC WIND                
ANALYSIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.                     
NEW CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE DRIVEN BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND                     
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY INTERACTION...SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGH...BUT              
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST                  
SEVERAL DAYS. DO EXPECT HIGHEST CHANCES TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER                  
SOUTH AND WEST TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. PWS STILL IN EXCESS              
OF 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS WILL MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY              
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS              
AGAIN WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE PRECIP/CLOUDS BUT LAST FEW DAYS HAVE              
SEEN TEMPS IN THE LO/MID 90S...SO SEE NO OVERWHELMING REASON TO                 
DEVIATE DESPITE MOS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90.                             
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN STRONGER ON FRIDAY WITH PWS COMING DOWN SO              
DONT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE                 
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM MAKING IT              
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO                  
RISE INTO NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE AOA 100 DEGREES                
MANY AREAS BY MONDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  97  76  98 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
WACO, TX              94  74  97  74  98 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             93  74  94  72  95 /  20  10  10  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            93  74  95  73  96 /  40  20  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  95  73  96 /  30  20  10  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            94  77  96  77  97 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           93  74  96  74  96 /  40  20  20  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  95  74  96 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  94  74  95 /  50  20  20  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DUNN                                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
359 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND THEN              
ON A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT.                     
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW VCNTY SRN HUDSON BAY. THE                
COMMA TAIL EXTENDS SW ACRS NRN WI. CLEARLY THE BRUNT OF THE UPPER               
FORCING IS STAYING NORTH OF HERE...FROM LAKE SUPERIOR NEWD...AS                 
EVIDENCED BY WHERE THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUSTAINED. THE RUC DOES              
INDICATE ONLY A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY AND THIS IS PROGGD TO COME               
THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG AND ERLY THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE THE                
LOW LEVEL FORCING...ALBEIT WEAK...IS STILL INDICATED BY SUBTLE                  
WIND SHIFT AT H8 AND THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. INSTAB AND MOIST AXIS              
IN PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY. GFS AND LOCAL WRF DEVELOPS               
MORE FOCUSED CONVECTION ACRS THE NRN CWA ASSOC WITH LOW LEVEL                   
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOIST/UNSTBL ENVIRONMENT. SPEAKING               
OF INSTABILITY...SURFACE BASED CAPES OFF THE NAM BUFFY SOUNDINGS                
DONT LOOK TOO BAD...RUNNING AROUND 1600 J/KG AND THE DEW POINTS                 
LOOK REASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SO WHILE NOT MUCH HELP                 
FROM THE UPPER DYNAMICS...THE WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT AND INSTAB AXIS               
CERTAINLY SUGGESTS KEEPING GOING POPS. GUID POPS ARE ALL IN THE                 
SINGLE DIGITS BUT WILL PROB ADJUST THESE UP IN LINE WITH GOING                  
GRID FORECAST.                                                                  
FRIDAY STILL LOOKING QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                     
SETTLING ACRS WRN GRT LAKES. H8 TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGREES SO SOME                
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED.                                                  
FCST GETS MUDDIED HEADING INTO SATURDAY DEALING WITH RETURN FLOW.               
NAM HAS STRAYED FROM THE GFS SOLUTION AND DEVELOPED A NORTHERN                  
PLAINS LOW WITH MUCH OF THE WAA FOCUSED PCPN NORTHWEST OF HERE ON               
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH MORE OF A              
CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WITH FRONT DRAPED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE ECMWF               
AND CANADIAN REFLECT A COMPROMISE AND HPC HAS STEERED IN THIS                   
DIRECTION. OVERALL...APPEARS THE HIGH WILL HAVE A LINGERING                     
INFLUENCE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST H8 LOW LEVEL FORCING LARGELY              
TO THE WEST OF HERE. EVEN THE MORE ROBUST GFS SHOWS H8 MOIST                    
CONVERGENCE INTO ONLY THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUNDAY. SO                  
WHILE KEEPING A CHC IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WILL TREND THE HIGHER                 
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT FOR NOW BANKING ON INITIATION TO OUR               
WEST AND THEN ROLLING IN HERE LATE SATURDAY BUT MORE LIKELY SATURDAY            
NIGHT.                                                                          
FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING OF ANY RIPPLES WILL BE THE KEY IN                   
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME...FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE WELL COLLABORATED              
CHCY POP SCENARIO IN PLACE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD OFFSET                
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND KEEP SHALLOW GROUND FOG PATCHY THROUGH THE                 
EARLY MORNING...EXCEPT IN THE RVR VALLEYS.  VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED AS SFC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH KMSN AROUND 21Z              
AND KMKE AROUND 00Z.  ENUF INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLD TO WDLY               
SCT COVERAGE.  WL EITHER GO WITH VCNTY REMARK OR BRIEF 1-2 HR TEMPO             
PD OF LGT THUNDER. CEILINGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR PENDING AMOUNT OF               
CONVECTION COVERAGE DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL RH.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER              
THE GRT LKS BTWN SLOWLY RETREATING VORTEX IN NRN QUEBEC AND UPR RDG             
OVER THE PLAINS. SFC HI CENTER IS SITUATED NEARLY OVER THE CWA...AND            
ASSOCIATED AIRMASS IS PARTICULARLY DRY/STABLE AS SHOWN ON 00Z                   
INL/GRB SDNGS (PWAT/KINX 0.49 INCH/2 AND 0.58 INCH/1 RESPECTIVELY).             
SO SKIES GENERALLY CLR ATTM. HOWEVER...SOME HI CLDS TO THE E OF AREA            
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ND TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT/AHEAD OF H5 SHRTWV               
MOVING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS ARE SPILLING INTO THE UPR LKS. ANOTHER             
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA NOTED TO THE S OVER SD/NB.                                    
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE RELATED TO FIRE WX. FOCUS FOR TNGT/SUN              
TURNS TO PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH H85 WARM FNT NOW IN THE NRN                  
PLAINS.                                                                         
FOR TDAY...LATEST GFS/NAM SHOW CENTER OF HI PRES DRIFTING SLOWLY TO             
SE ONTARIO BY 00Z SUN. AREA OF LOWEST PWAT BLO 0.75 INCH PROGGED TO             
LINGER THRU THE DAY OVER THE E HALF. OTRW...00Z NAM F6 H85-7 FGEN               
FIELD CORRELATES WELL WITH OBSVD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA NOW IN ND. MODEL             
TENDS TO MOVE THIS FORCING MORE NE INTO NW ONTARIO. SO ALTHOUGH SOME            
HI CLD WL SPILL INTO THE WRN FA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT INCHING               
ABV 1 INCH...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSUNNY. MIXING TO H8 ON GFS/NAM FCST              
SDNGS YIELD HI TEMPS ARND 80-82 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. RETURN SLY               
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HI DRIFTING TO THE E WL TRANSPORT A BIT                
HIER LLVL MSTR INTO THE FA AS COMPARED TO YDAY. BUT SINCE LLVL DRY              
AIR HAS SPREAD FAIRLY FAR TO THE S...PREFER THE SOMEWHAT DRIER LLVLS            
OF THE GFS FCST SDNGS...WHICH WOULD SUG DWPTS WL MIX OUT AS LO AS 40            
TO 45 AGAIN AWAY FM MODERATING FLOW OFF THE LK. T/TD OF 80/45 WOULD             
LOWER RH TO JUST BLO 30 PCT...AND T/TD OF 80/40 WOULD YIELD 25 PCT.             
EVEN IF THE LOWER RH VALUES VERIFY...EXPECTED WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO            
LO FOR FIRE WX WATCH/WRNG. WL REISSUE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT              
TO HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED HIER RISK FOR WILDFIRES.                                 
NAM REMAINS THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS FOR TNGT SHOWING AN H85 SW                
WIND OF 40 KTS RETURNING QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR. NAM QPF ALG THE              
WI BORDER FCST TO ARPCH 0.35 INCH. GFS IS STILL ONE OF THE DRIER                
SCENARIOS AND SHOWS NO QPF. CONSIDERING MODELS SHOW MAIN H85 WARM               
FNT LINGERING TO THE S AND NAM IS TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE IMPULSE/             
LOWER WITH THE QPF...SEEMS THE GFS IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK.              
TEMPTED TO DISCOUNT THE NAM ALTOGETHER...BUT 00Z CNDN SHOWS QPF                 
FARTHER N TO AREA OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AT 12Z SUN ACRS THE NRN CWA               
AND MORE CONFLUENT H85 WINDS...ALSO WELL N OF THE SHARPER H85 FNT.              
RUC13 MODEL ALSO SHOWS PCPN SPREADING FARTHER TO THE N...SIMILAR TO             
AT LEAST SOME OF THE SREF MEMBERS. WITH H85 WARM FNT SO FAR TO THE S            
AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS SO DRY...STILL LIKE THE CONSISTENT GFS FCST              
DESPITE THE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT FOR A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE NAM.              
HOWEVER...OPTED TO SPREAD LO CHC POPS FARTHER N IN THE 06Z-12Z                  
TIMEFRAME THAN CURRENTLY FCST BASED ON THE ARRAY OF SUPPORT...AND               
USED CNDN MODEL SHARPER FGEN FCST AS THE LINE SO ADVANCE THE POP.               
WL END PCPN CHCS W-E ON SUN AS MODELS WHICH SUPPORT PCPN SHOW H85               
FLOW VEERING TO MORE W IN THE WAKE OF TROF. SINCE THE GFS/NAM                   
DIVERGE SO MUCH ON THE FCST TNGT...EACH PAINTS A VERY DIFFERENT                 
PICTURE OF WHAT WL HAPPEN ON SUN. NOT SURPRISINGLY...GFS SHOWS A                
MUCH DRIER LLVL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE E WITH MORE SUNSHINE/DWPTS ARND            
50 AT ERY THRU THE DAY. NAM HINTS DWPTS WOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WITH            
MORE CLD COVER. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN LLVL MSTR            
OVER THE W IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO TRACKING ACRS CNTRL CNA. TENDED                 
TOWARD THE GFS FCST SCENARIO GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE MINIMAL              
MSTR TRANSPORT TO THE NE TNGT.                                                  
COLD FROPA FCST SUN NGT ATTENDANT TO SFC LO TRACKING ACRS CNTRL CAN.            
NAM IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LO...EXHIBITING A STRONGER WNW            
FLOW IN ITS WAKE/FASTER COLD FROPA. TENDED TOWARD A COMPROMISE UKMET            
SCENARIO...WHICH SUGS BNDRY WL REACH NR ERY-MNM AT 12Z MON. SINCE               
ANY DEEPER MSTR EXITS DURING THE DAY ON SUN WITH SYS RESPONSIBLE FOR            
PCPN CHCS LATE TNGT/SUN AND FROPA WL BE IN ABSENCE OF ANY DIURNAL               
HTG...EXPECT THE FROPA WL BE DRY DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STEEP H85-5                
LAPSE RATES 7-7.5C/KM.                                                          
UKMET SHOWS SFC COLD FNT EDGING PAST THE SCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES                
EARLY ON MON MRNG AND GIVING WAY TO HI PRES BLDG IN FM ONTARIO.                 
EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN              
DVLPG NE FLOW TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S PER MIXING TO H75-8 ON GFS              
FCST SDNGS AND UKMET H85 TEMP FCST JUST BLO 20C. SINCE PREVIOUS FCST            
HAD A 30 POP OVER THE ENTIRE FA...MAINTAINED THOSE LO CHC POPS IN               
THE AFTN OVER THE SCNTRL GIVEN CONSIDERABLE SFC HTG AND POTENTIAL               
FOR LK BREEZE CNVGC...ESPECIALLY IF SFC COLD FNT HANGS UP JUST TO               
THE S.                                                                          
GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN SHOWING SFC LO APRCHG THE CNTRL GRT LKS MON                
NGT/TUE...WITH MOST MODELS TRENDING S OF THE GFS FCST...WHICH MAY BE            
SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND DVLPG LO TOO FAR TO THE N.                    
MAINTAINED GOING CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME. THEN WENT DRY ON WED TO             
REFLECT RDG BLDG IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV.                                    
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL TODAY AS              
DRY HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WX. WAVE OF LOW PRES AND A WARM             
FRONT OVER MN LATE SAT WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SW OF UPR MI. ANY PCPN WILL STAY OUT OF                    
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 06Z SUN.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.                    
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF CONCERN WHERE THE WINDS COULD GET            
CLOSE TO 20 KT. THE FIRST IS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN ON EASTERN LAKE              
SUPERIOR...DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN A TROUGH             
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE                 
MOVING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND IS ON ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS A RESULT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA              
MOVING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...TIGHTENING              
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
135 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA                     
WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MOVE EASTWARD...               
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                  
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH                  
TUESDAY...AND BECOME THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER             
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES THIS SUMMER SEASON               
WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEXT WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SW GA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE DURING            
THE PD. MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS HOW FAR N INTO THE CWA THIS                
WILL MANAGE TO SPREAD PRECIP. RUC HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN                           
OVERFORECASTING THIS TREND BUT IS SEEMINGLY BECOMING BETTER                     
INTIALZIED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING NEAR THE SC/GA BORDER.             
NEWER RUNS KEEP ALL MEASUREABLE RAIN IN EXTREME SRN ZONES MUCH AS               
DEPICTED IN CONTINUITY. WILL STILL SHOW SOME SLGHT CHANCE POPS                  
FARTHER N ALONG THE COAST AS THE NAM AND GFS STILL SHOW A RATHER                
IMPRESSIVE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE SIGNAL JUST OFFSHORE...SOME OF WHICH            
MAY GLANCE THE COAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                     
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START OUT                 
THE PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES OF PCP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA EXTENDING INTO COASTAL WATERS. KEPT BEST               
CHC OF PCP ALONG THE COAST FOR TOMORROW. BY SUNDAY...WEAK SFC LOW               
DRIFTS OFF SHORE AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT...KEEPING AREA ON BACK              
END OF MID TO UPPER TROUGH AND LOWER CHC OF PCP. KEPT MAX TEMPS                 
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SAT WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN                          
AREA..ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 90S              
IN MOST PLACES ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALONG THE                    
COAST.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
5H RIDGE AND PIEDMONT TROF WILL REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURES                  
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP              
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO AND POPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. BOTH                    
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 850 TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE 20C.                 
GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE               
PERIOD BUT FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH THIS FEATURE WELL              
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND             
THURSDAY WHEN 5H RIDGE IS THE STRONGEST. THESE DAYS WILL ALSO HAVE              
THE LEAST LIKELY CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP DEVELOP...EVEN ALONG THE               
ANTICIPATED SEA BREEZE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
THE LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS PROVIDED BY SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING...WILL LIKELY CURTAIL MUCH OF THE FOG POTENTIAL. AS A                   
RESULT...HAVE ONLY INDICATED TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND A 1-2 HR              
WINDOW CENTERED AT SUNRISE. WITH THE SFC LOW DEPICTED TO MOVE OFF               
THE SOUTHERN SC COAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY...MYR AND CRE WILL LIKELY              
BE THE TERMINALS UNDER THE GUN FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM                
CLOUDS AND WX AFFECTING VSBY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SFC            
PRESSURE PATTERN FROM DEPARTING SFC LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE              
THE FEATURES AFFECTING WINDS.                                                   
ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION            
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE                  
AFFECTING THE AREA.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THIS PD STEMMING             
FROM THE LOW IN SW GA THAT WILL LIFT TO THE ENE. A GENERAL SRLY                 
DIRECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A BACKING FROM SW TO SE POSSIBLE.                
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY CAPPED AT 15 KTS. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A               
FEW KTS FROM PREV FCST AS KCLX VWP/INCREASED STORM STRUCTURE NEAR               
SC/GA BORDER AND OCP7 BOUY ALL SUGGEST THAT SOME COASTAL JETTING MAY            
BE OCCURRING.                                                                   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                           
THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BECOME TRICKY AS WRF                      
CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS GA INTO SC                   
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY                     
FLOW...BUT DEPENDING ON MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST ON               
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF ON SHORE WINDS SAT NIGHT                  
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS                      
BUILDING SEAS UP TO AROUND 4 FT IN OFF SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE                  
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.                                          
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH             
THE PERIOD WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE COAST AND PIEDMONT TROF INLAND.            
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HOEHLER                                                              
NEAR TERM...MBB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RGZ                                                                
LONG TERM...III                                                                 
AVIATION...HOEHLER                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
430 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN  IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN US               
AND SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE              
WESTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY 84                  
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MB/SK WILL MOVE TO THE NEW                        
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUN NIGHT. EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER            
SD WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUN NIGHT. WATER VAPOR             
LOOP INDICATES SOME DRYING OVER WESTERN SD.                                     
RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON WIND FIELD FROM THE AREA VAD             
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST SITES HAVE VEERING WINDS EXCEPT              
UNR WITH BACKING FLOW. WILL USE THE GFS AND RUC.                                
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT. GFS INDICATING SOME NEGATIVE                
SHOWALTERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE LITTLE CIN AND MODEST CAPES IF                 
LIFTED FROM 850 HPA TONIGHT. WILL ADD CHANCE OF THUNDER IN NORTHWEST            
ZONES TONIGHT.                                                                  
NEXT UPPER WAVE OVER BC WILL SWEEP ACROSS MB AND ONTARIO SUN WITH A             
COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA SUN.                                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TEMPS TWEAKED.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOG LOOP AND SURFACE OBS SHOW MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS OVER THE                   
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WAS MOVING NORTH INTO ND. WILL BRING LOWER CIGS             
INTO FAR THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH GFK LATER THIS MORNING.             
OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SD AND SOUTHERN              
ND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HOPPES                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1112 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SURFACE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE. WEAK TROUGH OF LOW               
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL                   
THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. RUC SHOWS WIND MAINLY                    
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVERGENCE ALOFT.                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION.               
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPS OFF TO A WARM START...IN                 
THE LOW/MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. MIXING                  
SHOULD BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE TEMPS A              
DEGREE OR TWO. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO                      
DECREASED CLOUD COVER.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT              
EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM               
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS ALONG THE COAST                 
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. GFS APPEARS TO BE               
A LITTLE FASTER WITH MOVING THESE SYSTEMS EWD. AS RIDGING GRADUALLY             
PUSHES EWD...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIRMASS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY                
CAPPED THROUGH SUNDAY AND CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUE TO DECREASE.                
WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. MODEL CONSENSUS MAX TEMPS            
STILL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT EXPECT FORECAST MAX              
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER                  
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GFS SHOWS                     
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING EWD ACRS THE AREA EARLY              
NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. CHANCE FOR POPS LOOKS                
LOW WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE              
MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCE FOR PCPN. WITH                      
INCREASING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL RAISE                
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO                 
MONITOR FOR HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
STRATUS ACROSS THE SRN MIDLANDS DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED            
REST OF THE PERIOD AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.                          
AVIATION OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                 
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...10                                                                   
NEAR TERM...10                                                                  
AVIATION...07                                                                   
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA                  
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE                   
REGION INTO MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND                 
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS                
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...PUSHING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME                     
FARTHER OFF OUR COAST. ON VISIBLE...SFC LOW CAN BE EASILY SEEN                  
SPINNING JUST OFF THE CHS COAST...WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE                     
RETAINING A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA AND                    
SOUTHERN SC.                                                                    
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRED DURING THE LAST TWO HOURS ACROSS THE                  
TRI-COUNTY AREA...BUT QUICKLY FILLED IN WITH CU AS SFC TEMPS ROSE.              
SFC LOW SHOULD PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY                 
WHILE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEGINS. HOWEVER...DEPENDING UPON HOW                     
QUICKLY THE DOWNSLOPING BEGINS...CLOUD COVER COULD PERSIST FOR                  
SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL                           
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY. NAM AND RUC                  
SHOW DOWNSLOPE FLOW CRANKING UP BY 18Z WITH LLVL MOISTURE SHIFTING              
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AM THINKING THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE                   
THINNING BEFORE 18Z...WITH RAPID CLEARING DURING THE LATE                       
AFTERNOON DUE TO 850 MB SUBSIDENCE. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING COULD                 
HELP TEMPS RECOVER QUITE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT              
SEE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA MAKING IT TO 90 T0DAY. BUMPED                 
HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.                                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ALONG A WEAK                  
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND                
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PARED POPS              
BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...                          
ISOLATED CONVECTION PSBL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST VERY EARLY                   
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE                 
SOME MORE PTCHY FOG BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FORECAST AT THIS                      
JUNCTURE.                                                                       
SUNDAY WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WSW AND WE WILL                   
START TO SEE HEAT BUILDING IN EARNEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S                   
AT SOME AREAS INLAND...NEAR 90 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ISOLATED AFTN                
TSTMS PSBL S OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...BUT MOST AREAS DRY. HEAT                   
INDICES WILL PEAK 100-105 IN THE AFTN BETWEEN THE COAST AND WELL                
INLAND WHERE DEW POINTS FCST TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH             
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A ILL DEFINED AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE           
WILL PERSIST MAYBE BRINGING SOME SCT MID CLOUD AT TIMES BUT OVERALL             
WEAK LAPSE RATES THANKS TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST RNFL CHCS ON THE            
LOW END. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOT WEATHER ISSUES IN THE               
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER A                      
STRENGTHENING INVERSION THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES               
THE CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING BUT HAVE A TOUGH TIME                    
BURNING OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THIS TREND FOR               
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TAFS AT 12Z. LAYERED CLOUDS APPEAR A LITTLE                  
THICKER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THIS MAY EVEN FURTHER DELAY                    
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KSAV. BY THIS AFTN...CLOUDS BECOMING SCT                
BY MIDDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                                          
TOO MUCH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO MENTION CB AT EITHER TERM THIS                 
AFTN. TONIGHT...DRIER AIR AT H7 BUT NOT VERY DRY AT H85. WE THINK               
THIS SHOULD BE A DETERRENT FOR MUCH FOG FORMATION DESPITE WET                   
SOILS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT W WINDS.                                       
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...                                                    
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
BRIEF DENSE FOG EVENT IN THE HARBOR HAS BEEN DIMINISHING RAPIDLY                
OVER THE PAST HOUR BASED ON WEB CAM IMAGERY. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE                
SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW PUSHES FARTHER                   
OFFSHORE AND TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TO ITS EAST. WINDS ARE              
SLOWLY VEERING AT ALL BUOY LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS                 
15-20 KT OVER AMZ374. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF VEERING                  
WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS THROUGH THIS AFTN.                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA                   
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MUCH               
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                            
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID                                               
953 AM MDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...GRIDS UPDATED AND FORECAST TEXT/TABULAR PRODUCTS                  
ALREADY SENT. A WAVY MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SW IDAHO HAS A HINT OF                
A WAVE ACROSS SE OREGON/NW NV BEHIND IT. WAVE CROSSES THROUGH                   
BOISE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CAP IS LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND              
-40 J/KG PER NAM12 AND RUC. ALREADY HAD LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SW                 
OWYHEE COUNTY AND REMNANTS OF THAT CELL SHOW VIRGA EAST OF NWS WFO              
HEADED TOWARDS IDAHO CITY. UPPED POPS THIS MORNING AND EXPANDED                 
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS FEATURE THROUGH SW IDAHO. WEST                     
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING                
BUT MOIST AXIS ONLY NIPS AT HEELS OF SE VALLEY COUNTY. SATELLITE                
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SMOKE OVER LONG VALLEY SO UPDATED SHORT                
TERM GRIDS TO AREAS OF SMOKE OVER WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PATCHY                
SMOKE ELSEWHERE OVER SW IDAHO INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY IS                  
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT WELL BOTH HORIZONTALLY AND VERTICALLY AS HIGH               
MIXING HEIGHTS COMBINE WITH SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS IN THE                 
MIXED LAYER EACH AFTERNOON.                                                     
OVERNIGHT RUNS HAVE BROUGHT THE HEIGHTS DOWN FOR COOLEST TEMPS                  
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE               
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF SW OREGON DRIVE LOWER HEIGHTS INLAND.               
ANY LONGER TERM UPDATES WILL BE MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LIGHTNING ALREADY OCCURRING SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IDAHO WILL          
MOVE ENE INTO S CENTRAL IDAHO 18Z-00Z.  DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR               
MASS WEST OF MYL-BOI-WMC LINE.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TIL 18Z WILL                
BECOME WEST 5-15 KNOTS 18Z-00Z.  BETTER VISIBILITY TODAY AS MODERATE            
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT SMOKE FURTHER EAST.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...A SUBTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE                 
FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY WHEN COOLER             
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS             
THE REGION WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE FEATURE CROSSING NORTHERN                  
IDAHO.  THIS WILL LOWER THE HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES AND PUSH               
ANY REMAINING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.                 
WHAT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE IS A VERY DRY WEDGE OF AIR STREAMING UP               
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE                
WEST COAST.  HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY BUT EVEN             
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF PASSES THRU THE AREA.  A SMALL              
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROF             
ON SUNDAY BUT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN SPREAD SCATTERED TO BROKEN               
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN             
AREAS ADJACENT TO KMSO AND KPIH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY             
AFTERNOON.  AS TROF CROSSES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL...UPPER WINDS ARE            
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  COMBINED WITH THE              
VERY LOW RH/S...NOT A GOOD THING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT JUST             
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT IN                 
VALLEY AND BOISE COUNTIES BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL             
PUSH THIS SMOKE AWAY FROM THE TREASURE VALLEY OF SOUTHWEST                      
IDAHO.                                                                          
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE             
TREND OF A TROF TO REMAIN GENERALLY OVER THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON              
COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE TROF OFF            
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.  MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF THE PACIFIC               
NORTHWEST TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO ON                   
TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ZONES.                      
OTHERWISE WITH THIS PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE COUNTRY             
THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE                
FORECAST AREA.  THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY             
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MENTION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER                    
TERRAIN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
OR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE                                                               
DISCUSSION...VM                                                                 
AVIATION.....LC                                                                 
PREV SHORT TERM...GS                                                            
PREV LONG TERM....JA                                                            
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
712 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER              
THE GRT LKS BTWN SLOWLY RETREATING VORTEX IN NRN QUEBEC AND UPR RDG             
OVER THE PLAINS. SFC HI CENTER IS SITUATED NEARLY OVER THE CWA...AND            
ASSOCIATED AIRMASS IS PARTICULARLY DRY/STABLE AS SHOWN ON 00Z                   
INL/GRB SDNGS (PWAT/KINX 0.49 INCH/2 AND 0.58 INCH/1 RESPECTIVELY).             
SO SKIES GENERALLY CLR ATTM. HOWEVER...SOME HI CLDS TO THE E OF AREA            
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ND TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT/AHEAD OF H5 SHRTWV               
MOVING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS ARE SPILLING INTO THE UPR LKS. ANOTHER             
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA NOTED TO THE S OVER SD/NB.                                    
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE RELATED TO FIRE WX. FOCUS FOR TNGT/SUN              
TURNS TO PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH H85 WARM FNT NOW IN THE NRN                  
PLAINS.                                                                         
FOR TDAY...LATEST GFS/NAM SHOW CENTER OF HI PRES DRIFTING SLOWLY TO             
SE ONTARIO BY 00Z SUN. AREA OF LOWEST PWAT BLO 0.75 INCH PROGGED TO             
LINGER THRU THE DAY OVER THE E HALF. OTRW...00Z NAM F6 H85-7 FGEN               
FIELD CORRELATES WELL WITH OBSVD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA NOW IN ND. MODEL             
TENDS TO MOVE THIS FORCING MORE NE INTO NW ONTARIO. SO ALTHOUGH SOME            
HI CLD WL SPILL INTO THE WRN FA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT INCHING               
ABV 1 INCH...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSUNNY. MIXING TO H8 ON GFS/NAM FCST              
SDNGS YIELD HI TEMPS ARND 80-82 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. RETURN SLY               
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HI DRIFTING TO THE E WL TRANSPORT A BIT                
HIER LLVL MSTR INTO THE FA AS COMPARED TO YDAY. BUT SINCE LLVL DRY              
AIR HAS SPREAD FAIRLY FAR TO THE S...PREFER THE SOMEWHAT DRIER LLVLS            
OF THE GFS FCST SDNGS...WHICH WOULD SUG DWPTS WL MIX OUT AS LO AS 40            
TO 45 AGAIN AWAY FM MODERATING FLOW OFF THE LK. T/TD OF 80/45 WOULD             
LOWER RH TO JUST BLO 30 PCT...AND T/TD OF 80/40 WOULD YIELD 25 PCT.             
EVEN IF THE LOWER RH VALUES VERIFY...EXPECTED WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO            
LO FOR FIRE WX WATCH/WRNG. WL REISSUE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT              
TO HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED HIER RISK FOR WILDFIRES.                                 
NAM REMAINS THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS FOR TNGT SHOWING AN H85 SW                
WIND OF 40 KTS RETURNING QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR. NAM QPF ALG THE              
WI BORDER FCST TO ARPCH 0.35 INCH. GFS IS STILL ONE OF THE DRIER                
SCENARIOS AND SHOWS NO QPF. CONSIDERING MODELS SHOW MAIN H85 WARM               
FNT LINGERING TO THE S AND NAM IS TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE IMPULSE/             
LOWER WITH THE QPF...SEEMS THE GFS IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK.              
TEMPTED TO DISCOUNT THE NAM ALTOGETHER...BUT 00Z CNDN SHOWS QPF                 
FARTHER N TO AREA OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AT 12Z SUN ACRS THE NRN CWA               
AND MORE CONFLUENT H85 WINDS...ALSO WELL N OF THE SHARPER H85 FNT.              
RUC13 MODEL ALSO SHOWS PCPN SPREADING FARTHER TO THE N...SIMILAR TO             
AT LEAST SOME OF THE SREF MEMBERS. WITH H85 WARM FNT SO FAR TO THE S            
AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS SO DRY...STILL LIKE THE CONSISTENT GFS FCST              
DESPITE THE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT FOR A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE NAM.              
HOWEVER...OPTED TO SPREAD LO CHC POPS FARTHER N IN THE 06Z-12Z                  
TIMEFRAME THAN CURRENTLY FCST BASED ON THE ARRAY OF SUPPORT...AND               
USED CNDN MODEL SHARPER FGEN FCST AS THE LINE SO ADVANCE THE POP.               
WL END PCPN CHCS W-E ON SUN AS MODELS WHICH SUPPORT PCPN SHOW H85               
FLOW VEERING TO MORE W IN THE WAKE OF TROF. SINCE THE GFS/NAM                   
DIVERGE SO MUCH ON THE FCST TNGT...EACH PAINTS A VERY DIFFERENT                 
PICTURE OF WHAT WL HAPPEN ON SUN. NOT SURPRISINGLY...GFS SHOWS A                
MUCH DRIER LLVL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE E WITH MORE SUNSHINE/DWPTS ARND            
50 AT ERY THRU THE DAY. NAM HINTS DWPTS WOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WITH            
MORE CLD COVER. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN LLVL MSTR            
OVER THE W IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO TRACKING ACRS CNTRL CNA. TENDED                 
TOWARD THE GFS FCST SCENARIO GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE MINIMAL              
MSTR TRANSPORT TO THE NE TNGT.                                                  
COLD FROPA FCST SUN NGT ATTENDANT TO SFC LO TRACKING ACRS CNTRL CAN.            
NAM IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LO...EXHIBITING A STRONGER WNW            
FLOW IN ITS WAKE/FASTER COLD FROPA. TENDED TOWARD A COMPROMISE UKMET            
SCENARIO...WHICH SUGS BNDRY WL REACH NR ERY-MNM AT 12Z MON. SINCE               
ANY DEEPER MSTR EXITS DURING THE DAY ON SUN WITH SYS RESPONSIBLE FOR            
PCPN CHCS LATE TNGT/SUN AND FROPA WL BE IN ABSENCE OF ANY DIURNAL               
HTG...EXPECT THE FROPA WL BE DRY DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STEEP H85-5                
LAPSE RATES 7-7.5C/KM.                                                          
UKMET SHOWS SFC COLD FNT EDGING PAST THE SCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES                
EARLY ON MON MRNG AND GIVING WAY TO HI PRES BLDG IN FM ONTARIO.                 
EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN              
DVLPG NE FLOW TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S PER MIXING TO H75-8 ON GFS              
FCST SDNGS AND UKMET H85 TEMP FCST JUST BLO 20C. SINCE PREVIOUS FCST            
HAD A 30 POP OVER THE ENTIRE FA...MAINTAINED THOSE LO CHC POPS IN               
THE AFTN OVER THE SCNTRL GIVEN CONSIDERABLE SFC HTG AND POTENTIAL               
FOR LK BREEZE CNVGC...ESPECIALLY IF SFC COLD FNT HANGS UP JUST TO               
THE S.                                                                          
GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN SHOWING SFC LO APRCHG THE CNTRL GRT LKS MON                
NGT/TUE...WITH MOST MODELS TRENDING S OF THE GFS FCST...WHICH MAY BE            
SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND DVLPG LO TOO FAR TO THE N.                    
MAINTAINED GOING CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME. THEN WENT DRY ON WED TO             
REFLECT RDG BLDG IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV.                                    
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS               
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING TODAY AND MID CLOUDS INCREASING                 
TONIGHT. THESE MID CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRES            
AND PCPN OVER SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY MOVE            
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND TAF SITES...BUT NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER               
12Z SUN. EVEN THEN...MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE                 
SOUTH CENTRAL U.P..                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.                    
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF CONCERN WHERE THE WINDS COULD GET            
CLOSE TO 20 KT. THE FIRST IS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN ON EASTERN LAKE              
SUPERIOR...DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN A TROUGH             
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE                 
MOVING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND IS ON ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS A RESULT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA              
MOVING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...TIGHTENING              
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1046 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE AREA FROM THE             
MIDWEST AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BRINGING           
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR                          
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A 1015MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                   
LOCATED NEAR CHARLESTON SC...WITH A SFC TROF AXIS EXTENDING NORTH               
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST IN               
ASSOC/W LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST STATES. DEWPOINTS ACROSS                  
CENTRAL NC WERE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ALOFT...A TROUGH WAS               
ANALYZED AT 250MB OVER EASTERN NC/SC STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH               
SOUTHERN GA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN ANALYSIS OF WV IMAGERY AND            
RUC/NAM12 HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS DO NOT SHOW ANY VORT MAXES OR                      
SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM OF THE AREA.                                                
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...                                      
THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING WAS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S SOUNDING...WITH A PWAT             
VALUE OF 1.26" AND SIMILAR MID-LEVEL TEMPS. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A               
BIT MORE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THAN YESTERDAY. WITH TEMPS                   
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING                 
SHOULD ALLOW TO DEWPOINTS TO DROP ONCE AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING.               
HOWEVER...GIVEN WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST FEW DAYS...DEWPOINTS                 
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA                 
TODAY. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR A TEMP OF 93 AND A DEWPOINT            
OF 63 YIELDS A MEAN LAYER CAPE OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.               
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...                                      
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SFC TROF EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...             
AND IT SHOULD BECOME FURTHER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS                  
RISING WELL INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S. THE SFC CONVERGENCE            
ASSOC/W THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR             
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AFTER REVIEWING WV               
IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM12 MODEL DATA...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE             
ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO BENEFIT CONVECTIVE                      
DEVELOPMENT. RUC 250MB HEIGHT/DIVERGENCE FIELDS ACTUALLY SHOW SOME              
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE              
CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE EAST...WHICH COULD HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.             
SUMMARY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...                                                   
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AROUND              
18Z...AND WITH A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SETUP TODAY AND A BETTER                 
DEFINED SFC TROF OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACT AS A                       
FOCUS...WILL ADD A SMALL (10%) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS                 
AFTERNOON. BEST EDUCATED GUESS FOR WHERE THE TROF AXIS WILL SETUP               
APPEARS TO BE NEAR FAY-RDU-RZZ GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROF                
AXIS THIS MORNING AND RUC/NAM12 FCST MSLP FIELDS. SOME UPPER LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE 250MB SHORTWAVE PASSING            
TO THE EAST MAY HELP INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...THE             
POSITIVE FACTORS (1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W               
TROF AXIS) SEEM TO OUTWEIGH THIS POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR...AND                
THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.                 
HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH THICKNESSES               
AROUND 1440M. -VINCENT                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. SO                     
ANOTHER MILD...MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE              
MODELS FOR SUNDAY... WITH THE TRACKING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW                    
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS ALSO                 
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE... GFS BEING THE WETTER                   
MODEL. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE REFLECT IN THE PROJECTED HIGHS. MORE               
CLOUDS FROM THE GFS LEADS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES. I AM NOT SOLD ON               
ALL OF THE CLOUDS SO WILL GO WITH 95-97 OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE              
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST MONDAY THUS HEIGHTS WILL                    
CONTINUE TO RISE... HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. ONCE                 
AGAIN INCREASED MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD TO                     
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN             
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEAK BOUNDARIES              
AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES COULD LEAD TO            
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AT                
AROUND 7 KFT. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON                  
AFTER 18Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY REMAINING UNTIL 23-00Z.                        
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL BE SO LOW THAT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS             
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
AREAS OF PRIMARILY MVFR FOG AND HAZE LATE NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK                
INTO WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
LONG TERM...RHJ                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT/RLH                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1012 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND RESULTANT TEMPS               
FOR TODAY. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR WILL BE WEAK SFC LOW                    
ACROSS SD. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY WANDER E TODAY...KEEPING THE                
FA IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOW-CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF SD AND                
CENTRAL ND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE N/NE. CHALLENGE WILL BE               
HOW FAR N THE CLOUDS CAN MAKE IT. 12Z RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD                
HANDLE ON THESE CLOUDS (925-850MB RH)...SHOWING CLOUDS TO BE ALONG              
AND SOUTH OF A CANDO-GFK-BJI LINE BY AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE THAT                
WILL SCOUR OR MOVE THESE CLOUDS EAST WILL BE THE SFC TROUGH NOW                 
ENTERING W ND (PROPAGATE THROUGH TONIGHT). WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS                
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING. WILL ALSO LOWER MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY              
ACROSS THE S AND W FA WHERE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED. NO                    
CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPS ACROSS NE FA WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER                   
EXPECTED. THE HARDEST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHERE CLOUDS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO. WILL GENERALLY NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO                   
TEMPS HERE...THINKING THAT MORNING SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE                 
CLOSE TO FORECAST (MAYBE 1-2 DEGREES LOWER).                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL               
ND AND MOST OF SD. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL               
AFFECT FAR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY...AND MAY REACH GFK BY EARLY AFTERNOON.        
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SD AND ND THIS AFTERNOON               
AND TONIGHT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN US                
AND SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE              
WESTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY 84                  
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MB/SK WILL MOVE TO THE NEW                        
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUN NIGHT. EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH WAS                 
OVER SD WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUN NIGHT. WATER              
VAPOR LOOP INDICATES SOME DRYING OVER WESTERN SD.                               
RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON WIND FIELD FROM THE AREA VAD             
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST SITES HAVE VEERING WINDS EXCEPT              
UNR WITH BACKING FLOW. WILL USE THE GFS AND RUC.                                
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT. GFS INDICATING SOME NEGATIVE                
SHOWALTERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE LITTLE CIN AND MODEST CAPES IF                 
LIFTED FROM 850 HPA TONIGHT. WILL ADD CHANCE OF THUNDER IN NORTHWEST            
ZONES TONIGHT.                                                                  
NEXT UPPER WAVE OVER BC WILL SWEEP ACROSS MB AND ONTARIO SUN WITH A             
COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA SUN.                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TEMPS TWEAKED.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG/JH                                                                           
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
253 PM PDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE DISTRICT AS THE FLOW               
ALOFT WAS NOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SMOKE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA                
WAS ALSO PUSHED INTO THE DISTRICT...BUT WAS NOT THICK ENOUGH TO                 
PREVENT VALLEY TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE 100 DEG-F MARK.                   
FURTHERMORE...SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC80 UPPER AIR                      
ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHERN                        
CALIFORNIA COAST. WILL EXPECT THIS UPPER LOW TO TRACK EASTWARD AND              
TIMED TO HIT THE CENTRAL COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. MOREOVER...                   
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE MAY GET CAUGHT INTO THE                  
PREVAILING FLOW AND PUSHED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH MOST OF                
THE DYNAMIC LIFT CONFINED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL ONLY                    
MENTION CLOUD COVER FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.                     
OTHERWISE...THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL              
COOL DOWN ACROSS THE DISTRICT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG 850MB                    
TEMP/S NEAR 22 DEG-C...WHICH TRANSLATE INTO SURFACE TEMP/S OF MID               
TO UPPER 90S. THIS WILL BE A DROP OF SOME 10 DEG-F FROM TODAYS                  
READINGS. A POSSIBLE MARINE PUSH BEHIND THE TROF PASSAGE COULD                  
LOWER TEMP/S IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THEREFORE...MONDAY AND              
TUESDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD WITH THE COOLEST CONDITIONS BEFORE A                 
WARMING TREND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE TROF PASSAGE               
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES BLOWING ON                 
MONDAY.                                                                         
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS DO SLOWLY RAISE HEIGHTS TO                 
MAINTAIN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. YET...MEDIUM              
RANGE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE TROF PASSAGE BY FRIDAY.              
WHILE SOME WARMING WILL BE OBSERVED DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THE              
WEEK...ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.                  
YET...WILL KEEP THE DISTRICT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL PERSIST ABOVE 15 THOUSAND FEET                  
MAINLY SOUTH OF FRESNO COUNTY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR                 
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR                 
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS             
FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL...AND TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                         
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...MOLINA                                                                 
AVN/FW...JDB                                                                    
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
300 PM MDT SAT AUG 04 2007                                                      
SHORT TERM...DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRING             
OUT ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPR LVL HIGH PRES RIDGE NOW CENTERED            
OVER NWRN TEXAS. THE CLOUD BAND EXTENDING OVER THE CWFA THIS                    
AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH AT THE CENTER OF THIS PLUME. EVEN WITH ALL THE            
MOISTURE AROUND CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON              
ESPLY IN MTN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.            
LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AT POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER INDICATE A            
STRONG STABLE LAYER UP AROUND 550 MBS. SAME SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE             
5-15KT N/NWLY WINDS UP THROUGH 600 MBS AND 15-30KT SWLY FLOW ABOVE              
THAT. THOUGH THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER TODAY                 
STORM MOTIONS HAVE REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY FM A W-SWLY COMPONENT AT            
10-15KT. HIGHEST RUC CAPE VALUES ON THE PLAINS UP AROUND 2200 J/KG              
UP AROUND FORT COLLINS AND ACROSS WELD COUNTY WHERE LGT S-SELY                  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS ACCUMULATED AIR WITH NEAR 60F DEW POINTS. BUT             
STORMS HAVE YET TO FIRE IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE DEWPOINTS ON THE                
PLAINS HAVE SLOWLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LIGHT N-NWLY                 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING FOLLOWING PASSAGE            
OF A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WOULD EXPECT             
TO SEE WDLY SCT/SCT T-STORMS FORMING OVER MTNS...ALONG THE FRONT                
RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND POSSIBLY UP ALONG THE                   
CHEYENNE RIDGE AROUND FORT COLLINS. CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS               
LINCOLN COUNTY POSSIBLY ANOTHER AREA FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY               
EVENING STORM FORMATION...BUT SBCAPES AND MID-LEVEL STABILITY LESS              
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. BELIEVE HEAVY RAIN LESS             
OF A THREAT THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO STORMS AROUND PARK               
COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE PALMER               
DIVIDE MAY STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF INTENSE SHOWER.                                
OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION LINGERING IN THE HIGH                 
COUNTRY AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEARBY PLAINS. MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE              
AND VORT MAX IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANOTHER WEAKER MID-LEVEL            
IMPULSE PASSING OVER SRN IDAHO/NRN UTAH AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW               
THESE FEATURES MERGING OVER NERN COLORADO SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.              
MEANWHILE WIND FIELDS SHOW LOW-LEVELS WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A SELY            
COMPONENT WHICH SLOWLY ADVECTS HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK UP IN THE                 
CWFA. THEREFORE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/T-STORMS            
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND NEARBY PLAINS OVERNIGHT.                                
ON SUNDAY....MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE CWFA IN THE                  
MORNING WITH QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS INDICATING SINKING                     
MID/UPR-LEVEL AIR OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER BY THE AFTERNOON...MODELS              
SHOW S-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH                
INCREASES SFC DEWPOINTS AND THETA-E VALUES. ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL              
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS PROGGED TO                
SWING OUT OF ERN UTAH AND OVER NERN COLORADO BY 21Z/SUNDAY OR SO.               
ALTHOUGH SEE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES              
IN MTN AREAS. NEVERTHELESS SHOULD SEE STORMS BEGIN TO FIRE IN THE               
MTNS NOT LONG AFTER MIDDAY AND A FEW HOURS LATER ON THE NEARBY                  
PLAINS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY HIGH COUNTRY STORMS MAY BE              
NECESSARY TO INITIATE STORM DVLPMNT ON THE PLAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON            
WITH PW VALUES INCREASING ON THE PLAINS COULD SEE A FEW HEAVY RAIN              
PRODUCING STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS FAR            
ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ABOUT THE SAME AS              
TODAY.                                                                          
.LONG TERM...A WEAK MID LVL SHORTWAVE NOW OVR SRN AZ WL MOV THRU THE            
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE TSTM CHANCES TWD                   
EVENING.  THIS FEATURE HAS ITS ORIGINS WITHIN THE DEEP MONSOONAL                
FLOW OVR THE SOUTHWEST AND HIR PRECIP WATER WILL BE INVOF THE                   
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THRU THE CWA. THUS...TSTM COVERAGE LOOKS A BIT            
HIR MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. HWVR...STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND                 
FASTER STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT QPF AND FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE OF            
CONCERN.  TUESDAY...A WEAK UPR TROUGH WL MOV THRU MONTANA WITH AN               
ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSING THRU THE DISTRICT TUESDAY EVENING.  DUE TO            
THE WEAK ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ELECTED TO KEEP              
POPS GOING OVERNIGHT AS WE COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION LAST OVERNIGHT.            
LOOKING AHD...STG HIGH PRESSURE WL RMN STATIONARY OVER THE                      
SOUTHEAST CONUS.  HWVR...A SERIES OF TROUGHS FM THE PACIFIC NW WL               
GRADUALLY CAUSE THE FLOW ALF TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST ACRS OUR             
REGION.  MAIN PLUME OF MONSOONAL MSTR WL MOVE TO OUR EAST...BUT                 
CANNOT RULE OUT AFTN/EVENING STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THERE                
CONTINUE TO BE A THIN LYR OF MSTR IN THE MID LVLS.  PLAINS SHOULD               
DRY OUT AS THE STORMS AFT WED OR THURS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED.  TEMPS             
WL BE VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH 90 OR BETTER EACH DAY ON THE PLAINS.             
WARMED UP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACRS THE BOARD ON LONG TERM                     
FCST...BUT OTWS FEW CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLD/WDLY SCT TSRA IN THE DENVER VCNTY THRU 03Z. BRIEF             
HVY RAIN AND TSRA WND GUSTS TO 30KTS A POSSIBLITY. ISOLATED -TSRA               
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ASA WEAK UPR LVL WX DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO PASS             
OVERTHE AREA BTWN 06Z-09Z. VSBYS BRIEFLY MVFR WITH HVY RAINFALL WITH            
PASSING TSRA.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAKER/046                                                                       
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
148 PM MDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
...HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS...              
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTER OVER OK/TX WITH SWLY FLOW OVER THE            
CNTRL ROCKIES. MIDDLE AND UPPER MOISTURE PLUME STILL EXTENDS FROM               
THE DESERT SW INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. 12Z/04 SOUNDING DATA HAD                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICES OF 150-200 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...SO            
A PRETTY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE. REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED            
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING...PER CLIMATOLOGY...OVER THE CO                    
MOUNTAINS JUST AROUND NOON. A COUPLE OF MODERATE TO INTENSE CELLS               
HAVE GONE UP IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO/WET MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK               
EARLY THIS AFTN. A SHALLOW VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE                  
PALMER DIVIDE AREA JUST BEFORE NOON...AND IS JUST SOUTH OF                      
KCOS-KLIC-KITR. WINDS VEERING TO THE E-SE AT KCOS AS UPSLOPE FLOW               
STARTING TO INCREASE.                                                           
LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT...WELL...SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS OF                          
FUEL(MOISTURE) AND CONVECTIVE ENERGY ARE IN PLACE LIKE THE LAST FEW             
DAYS. MODELS WANT TO BREAK OUT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE                
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT IT TO NEARBY VALLEYS AND SERN CO PLAINS...OR                
FORM OVER THE SERN CO PLAINS NEAR THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.                  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS STILL THE MAIN TSTM IMPACT WEATHER GIVEN              
FREEZING LEVEL/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 14K-17K FT MSL AND H7-H5                
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 6-8 G/KG. STORM CELL MOTION WILL BE                 
TOWARDS THE E-NE AROUND 10KTS...SO STORMS WILL BE MOVING. THE ONLY              
POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FOR CELL TRAINING OR                   
MERGERS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AND COULD OCCUR             
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. GIVEN THE VERY LOCALIZED THREAT AND NOT WANTING            
TO CONTINUE BLANKETING THE ENTIRE CWFA IN FLASH FLOOD WATCHES LIKE              
THE PAST DAYS...PLAN TO NOT ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL                  
CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND MENTIONING FLASH             
FLOOD THREAT IN THE AFD AND HWO TEXT PRODUCTS. AS USUAL...OLD                   
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.  RAINFALL            
RATES COULD BE 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS AFTN AND EVE. ROCK AND MUD              
SLIDES COULD OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF                         
STEEP/COMPLEX TERRAIN WITH LOOSE GRAVEL...BOULDERS...ETC. HAIL UP TO            
1/2 INCH AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH                  
INTENSE TSTM UPDRAFTS THIS AFTN AND EVE. WRF MODEL WANTS EVOLVE THE             
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER             
SERN CO LATER TNGT...BUT HAVE SOME QUANDARIES ABOUT THIS                        
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER MILD AND MOIST NIGHT WILL BE IN THE OFFING.                
SUN...MORE OF THE SAME AND PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE A GOOD TOOL.                  
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT            
EWD INTO VALLEYS AND SERN CO PLAINS. THE MAIN TSTM IMPACT WEATHER               
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.                  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY AUG                           
AVERAGES.  METZE                                                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                 
WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION RELATIVELY BRIEF AS RATHER OCCUPIED                   
MONITORING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CWFA PROJECTED TO REMAIN UNDER                 
THE MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH LATEST MODELS                
INDICATING SOME DRYING INFILTRATING REGION FROM LATER WEDNESDAY                 
INTO NEXT SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS.                               
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR                   
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES DURING THE LONG TERM. GRADIENT WINDS              
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOMEWHAT FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT                  
WEEKEND.                                                                        
SO FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE PAINTED IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES                    
WITH WARM EARLY AUGUST TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS PRIMARILY AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY             
ISOLATED POPS THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE CWFA FROM THURSDAY                
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS                  
THROUGH 06Z/05 TNGT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR-MVFR           
VIS/CIGS...ERRATIC WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 35KTS...AND PEA             
SIZE HAIL. METZE                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
144 PM EDT SAT AUG  4 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE. WEAK TROUGH OF LOW                    
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL                   
THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. RUC SHOWS WIND MAINLY                    
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVERGENCE ALOFT.                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION.               
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPS OFF TO A WARM START...IN                 
THE LOW/MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. MIXING                  
SHOULD BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE TEMPS A              
DEGREE OR TWO. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO                      
DECREASED CLOUD COVER.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT              
EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM               
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS ALONG THE COAST                 
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. GFS APPEARS TO BE               
A LITTLE FASTER WITH MOVING THESE SYSTEMS EWD. AS RIDGING GRADUALLY             
PUSHES EWD...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIRMASS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY                
CAPPED THROUGH SUNDAY AND CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUE TO DECREASE.                
WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. MODEL CONSENSUS MAX TEMPS            
STILL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT EXPECT FORECAST MAX              
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER                  
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GFS SHOWS                     
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING EWD ACRS THE AREA EARLY              
NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. CHANCE FOR POPS LOOKS                
LOW WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE              
MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCE FOR PCPN. WITH                      
INCREASING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL RAISE                
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO                 
MONITOR FOR HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER AIR                  
DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID         
AND UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT SCT/BKN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON 5 TO 6                  
THOUSAND FEET TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER             
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE                     
PIEDMONT. AFTER SUNSET CLEAR SKIES. COULD GET MVFR FOG 08-12Z AT                
KAGS/KOGB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.                                  
AVIATION OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                 
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
256 PM MDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AGAIN CENTERS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS                 
THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD.                                                   
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE               
SOUTHERN U.S. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS CENTRAL                 
NEBRASKA PER LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS WITH A SFC LEE TROUGH NEAR THE                
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. RUC/GFS/NAM INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY             
SINK SOUTH TONIGHT. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...TSRA            
APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH FCST            
POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.50 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY        
RAIN REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION.                              
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE SUN AND MON ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN               
CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CONVERGENCE            
ALONG A PERSISTENT SFC LEE TROUGH ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK VORT MAXES            
ROTATING INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO                 
DAILY CHANCES OF TSRA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMALS AS              
850 HPA TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR THE 30 DEGREE C MARK YIELDING HIGHS WELL            
INTO THE 90S.                                                                   
FOR TUE...A DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY WILL HEAD INTO THE REGION WHILE A              
SFC LEE TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER.             
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN              
PLACE. GIVEN THE ABOVE...INSERTED CATEGORICAL POPS TUE EVENING                  
ESPECIALLY TO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED            
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY            
WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE AREA. WEAK SFC GRADIENT                
WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH WED              
EVENING OUT WEST AS MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW LIFT            
TO THE NORTHEAST. A 40 KT H85 JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST WED            
NIGHT...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION FURTHER EAST. DID HOLD ONTO            
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST OF FCST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF             
THETA-E ADVECTION. TEMPS BOTH TUE AND WED WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN                
WELL INTO THE 90S.                                                              
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEAST U.S.               
RIDGE RETROGRADING NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE END             
OF THE WEEK. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...TEMPS INCREASING A COUPLE OF                 
DEGREES MORE LOOKS PLAUSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ALSO APPEAR MINIMAL                
ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE SEVERAL ILL-DEFINED S/WV             
TROUGHS ROTATING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...                     
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILED TIMING SO LEFT EXTENDED DRY                   
ATTM.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                   
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE              
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS                
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY               
EXPECTED BUT IF A STORM MOVES OVER THE KGLD AND KMCK AIRPORTS                   
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS COULD QUICKLY DROP INTO THE MVFR OR IFR               
RANGE AS HEAVY RAIN OBSTRUCTS VISIBILITIES. THIS IS EXPECTED AFTER              
22Z OR SO AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS            
TONIGHT EXPECT CIRRUS OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN VARIETY THROUGH 18Z              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CLK/DDT                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1257 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER              
THE GRT LKS BTWN SLOWLY RETREATING VORTEX IN NRN QUEBEC AND UPR RDG             
OVER THE PLAINS. SFC HI CENTER IS SITUATED NEARLY OVER THE CWA...AND            
ASSOCIATED AIRMASS IS PARTICULARLY DRY/STABLE AS SHOWN ON 00Z                   
INL/GRB SDNGS (PWAT/KINX 0.49 INCH/2 AND 0.58 INCH/1 RESPECTIVELY).             
SO SKIES GENERALLY CLR ATTM. HOWEVER...SOME HI CLDS TO THE E OF AREA            
OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ND TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT/AHEAD OF H5 SHRTWV               
MOVING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS ARE SPILLING INTO THE UPR LKS. ANOTHER             
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA NOTED TO THE S OVER SD/NB.                                    
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE RELATED TO FIRE WX. FOCUS FOR TNGT/SUN              
TURNS TO PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH H85 WARM FNT NOW IN THE NRN                  
PLAINS.                                                                         
FOR TDAY...LATEST GFS/NAM SHOW CENTER OF HI PRES DRIFTING SLOWLY TO             
SE ONTARIO BY 00Z SUN. AREA OF LOWEST PWAT BLO 0.75 INCH PROGGED TO             
LINGER THRU THE DAY OVER THE E HALF. OTRW...00Z NAM F6 H85-7 FGEN               
FIELD CORRELATES WELL WITH OBSVD AREA OF SHRA/TSRA NOW IN ND. MODEL             
TENDS TO MOVE THIS FORCING MORE NE INTO NW ONTARIO. SO ALTHOUGH SOME            
HI CLD WL SPILL INTO THE WRN FA WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT INCHING               
ABV 1 INCH...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSUNNY. MIXING TO H8 ON GFS/NAM FCST              
SDNGS YIELD HI TEMPS ARND 80-82 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. RETURN SLY               
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HI DRIFTING TO THE E WL TRANSPORT A BIT                
HIER LLVL MSTR INTO THE FA AS COMPARED TO YDAY. BUT SINCE LLVL DRY              
AIR HAS SPREAD FAIRLY FAR TO THE S...PREFER THE SOMEWHAT DRIER LLVLS            
OF THE GFS FCST SDNGS...WHICH WOULD SUG DWPTS WL MIX OUT AS LO AS 40            
TO 45 AGAIN AWAY FM MODERATING FLOW OFF THE LK. T/TD OF 80/45 WOULD             
LOWER RH TO JUST BLO 30 PCT...AND T/TD OF 80/40 WOULD YIELD 25 PCT.             
EVEN IF THE LOWER RH VALUES VERIFY...EXPECTED WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO            
LO FOR FIRE WX WATCH/WRNG. WL REISSUE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT              
TO HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED HIER RISK FOR WILDFIRES.                                 
NAM REMAINS THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS FOR TNGT SHOWING AN H85 SW                
WIND OF 40 KTS RETURNING QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR. NAM QPF ALG THE              
WI BORDER FCST TO ARPCH 0.35 INCH. GFS IS STILL ONE OF THE DRIER                
SCENARIOS AND SHOWS NO QPF. CONSIDERING MODELS SHOW MAIN H85 WARM               
FNT LINGERING TO THE S AND NAM IS TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE IMPULSE/             
LOWER WITH THE QPF...SEEMS THE GFS IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK.              
TEMPTED TO DISCOUNT THE NAM ALTOGETHER...BUT 00Z CNDN SHOWS QPF                 
FARTHER N TO AREA OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AT 12Z SUN ACRS THE NRN CWA               
AND MORE CONFLUENT H85 WINDS...ALSO WELL N OF THE SHARPER H85 FNT.              
RUC13 MODEL ALSO SHOWS PCPN SPREADING FARTHER TO THE N...SIMILAR TO             
AT LEAST SOME OF THE SREF MEMBERS. WITH H85 WARM FNT SO FAR TO THE S            
AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS SO DRY...STILL LIKE THE CONSISTENT GFS FCST              
DESPITE THE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT FOR A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE NAM.              
HOWEVER...OPTED TO SPREAD LO CHC POPS FARTHER N IN THE 06Z-12Z                  
TIMEFRAME THAN CURRENTLY FCST BASED ON THE ARRAY OF SUPPORT...AND               
USED CNDN MODEL SHARPER FGEN FCST AS THE LINE SO ADVANCE THE POP.               
WL END PCPN CHCS W-E ON SUN AS MODELS WHICH SUPPORT PCPN SHOW H85               
FLOW VEERING TO MORE W IN THE WAKE OF TROF. SINCE THE GFS/NAM                   
DIVERGE SO MUCH ON THE FCST TNGT...EACH PAINTS A VERY DIFFERENT                 
PICTURE OF WHAT WL HAPPEN ON SUN. NOT SURPRISINGLY...GFS SHOWS A                
MUCH DRIER LLVL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE E WITH MORE SUNSHINE/DWPTS ARND            
50 AT ERY THRU THE DAY. NAM HINTS DWPTS WOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WITH            
MORE CLD COVER. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN LLVL MSTR            
OVER THE W IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO TRACKING ACRS CNTRL CNA. TENDED                 
TOWARD THE GFS FCST SCENARIO GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE MINIMAL              
MSTR TRANSPORT TO THE NE TNGT.                                                  
COLD FROPA FCST SUN NGT ATTENDANT TO SFC LO TRACKING ACRS CNTRL CAN.            
NAM IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LO...EXHIBITING A STRONGER WNW            
FLOW IN ITS WAKE/FASTER COLD FROPA. TENDED TOWARD A COMPROMISE UKMET            
SCENARIO...WHICH SUGS BNDRY WL REACH NR ERY-MNM AT 12Z MON. SINCE               
ANY DEEPER MSTR EXITS DURING THE DAY ON SUN WITH SYS RESPONSIBLE FOR            
PCPN CHCS LATE TNGT/SUN AND FROPA WL BE IN ABSENCE OF ANY DIURNAL               
HTG...EXPECT THE FROPA WL BE DRY DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STEEP H85-5                
LAPSE RATES 7-7.5C/KM.                                                          
UKMET SHOWS SFC COLD FNT EDGING PAST THE SCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES                
EARLY ON MON MRNG AND GIVING WAY TO HI PRES BLDG IN FM ONTARIO.                 
EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN              
DVLPG NE FLOW TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S PER MIXING TO H75-8 ON GFS              
FCST SDNGS AND UKMET H85 TEMP FCST JUST BLO 20C. SINCE PREVIOUS FCST            
HAD A 30 POP OVER THE ENTIRE FA...MAINTAINED THOSE LO CHC POPS IN               
THE AFTN OVER THE SCNTRL GIVEN CONSIDERABLE SFC HTG AND POTENTIAL               
FOR LK BREEZE CNVGC...ESPECIALLY IF SFC COLD FNT HANGS UP JUST TO               
THE S.                                                                          
GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN SHOWING SFC LO APRCHG THE CNTRL GRT LKS MON                
NGT/TUE...WITH MOST MODELS TRENDING S OF THE GFS FCST...WHICH MAY BE            
SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND DVLPG LO TOO FAR TO THE N.                    
MAINTAINED GOING CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME. THEN WENT DRY ON WED TO             
REFLECT RDG BLDG IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV.                                    
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS               
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THIS AFTERNOON AND MID CLOUDS                   
INCREASING TONIGHT. THESE MID CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE             
OF LOW PRES AND PCPN OVER SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SOME OF THIS              
PCPN MAY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUN.               
EVEN THEN...MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL            
U.P. AND CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO PUT INTO THE TAFS RIGHT NOW.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.                    
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF CONCERN WHERE THE WINDS COULD GET            
CLOSE TO 20 KT. THE FIRST IS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN ON EASTERN LAKE              
SUPERIOR...DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN A TROUGH             
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE                 
MOVING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND IS ON ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS A RESULT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA              
MOVING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...TIGHTENING              
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...MICHELS                                                              
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION... CORRECTED CLIMATE SECTION                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
459 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY... IS                   
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND               
MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY. A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT... CENTERED               
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY... WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL            
NORTH CAROLINA LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING VERY DRY             
AND HOT CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A 1016 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE               
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE SC...WITH A SFC TROF AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO            
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST IN ASSOC/W            
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST STATES. DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC               
WERE IN THE LOWER 60S (NW PIEDMONT) TO THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70F               
ELSEWHERE. ALOFT...A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED AT 250MB OVER COASTAL NC/SC            
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN GA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.             
AN ANALYSIS OF WV IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM12 HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS DO NOT               
SHOW ANY VORT MAXES OR SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM OF THE AREA.                         
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...                                      
THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING WAS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S SOUNDING...WITH A PWAT             
VALUE OF 1.26" AND SIMILAR MID-LEVEL TEMPS. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A               
BIT MORE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THAN YESTERDAY. WITH TEMPS                   
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING                 
SHOULD ALLOW TO DEWPOINTS TO DROP ONCE AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING.               
HOWEVER...GIVEN WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST FEW DAYS...DEWPOINTS                 
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND             
MID/UPPER 60S ALONG/EAST OF THE SFC TROF AXIS. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING             
MODIFIED FOR A TEMP OF 93 AND A DEWPOINT OF 63 YIELDS A MEAN LAYER              
CAPE OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG THIS AFT/EVE.                                           
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...                                      
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SFC TROF EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON              
WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W THE AXIS OF             
THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE                      
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AFTER REVIEWING WV IMAGERY AND              
RUC/NAM12 MODEL DATA...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY                     
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO BENEFIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.             
RUC 250MB HEIGHT/DIVERGENCE FIELDS ACTUALLY SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL               
CONVERGENCE...AND SOME MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WARMING/DRYING OVER THE             
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT PASSED TO THE EAST THIS             
MORNING...WHICH WILL ACT TO HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.                             
SUMMARY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...                                       
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AROUND              
18-19Z...AND WITH A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SETUP TODAY AND A BETTER              
DEFINED SFC TROF OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACT AS A                       
FOCUS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF A SMALL (10%) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED                  
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC TROF AXIS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG            
A LINE STRETCHING FROM LAURINBURG...TO CHAPEL HILL...TO HENDERSON.              
THIS IS WHERE ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD MOST LIKELY DEVELOP. SOME              
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WARMING/DRYING OVER            
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE 250MB SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE EAST WILL            
HELP INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...THE POSITIVE FACTORS            
(1000-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W TROF AXIS)                
SEEM TO OUTWEIGH THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING A            
SMALL  (10%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON              
UNTIL SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH            
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ACTIVITY IN                     
IL/WI/IA) WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE ALOFT RIDES NW FLOW               
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOW            
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE              
NW FLOW A TOP THIS RIDGE WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF               
CENTRAL NC. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST             
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z/04 AUGUST NAM/ECMWF/UKMET ARE FAVORED               
OVER THE GFS IN DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE                  
ACROSS WVA/VA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD INCREASE              
THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING.                                                                    
MOST MODELS DO DEPICT A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING             
TO HELP WITH A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE. EVEN THOUGH THERE               
WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE                   
SURFACE TROUGH... IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT               
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW... WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN TO ACCOUNT               
FOR THIS FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE              
COMPARABLE TO TODAY WITH SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT HIGHS            
OF 93-98 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                                              
THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF TO OUR NE SUNDAY NIGHT             
WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR            
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 70-75. MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS              
IN THE MID 90S. THE GRIDS WILL SHOW THE TYPICAL CLIMO DISTRIBUTION              
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE NW ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE SANDHILLS.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A BUILDING UPPER               
RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE                    
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE FAVORS VERY              
DRY AND HOT WEATHER FOR CENTRAL NC. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS                     
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF               
THE WESTERLIES A TOP THE UPPER RIDGE. NO POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.                
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CENTRAL NC WILL BE THE VERY DRY AND HOT WEATHER              
WITH WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAILY             
RECORD HIGHS. THE VERY DRY SOILS IN PLACE UNDER THIS RIDGE SUPPORT              
AT LEAST SOME RECORD HIGHS AROUND MID WEEK. SEE LIST OF RECORD HIGHS            
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.                                                         
THE HOTTEST WEATHER SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS                  
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 100... ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE                  
SANDHILLS. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND OF HIGH DEW POINTS AT NIGHT                
INTO THE EARLY MORNING... WITH SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO                 
THE SURFACE FROM THE MID LAYERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED.                   
THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS (MID 70S) SHOULD BE FOUND ESPECIALLY OVER                
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AT NIGHT INTO THE MID               
MORNING HOURS... MIXING OUT TO UPPER 60S AT PEAK HEATING. THIS                  
WOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE               
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS IN HAZE...AND PRIMARILY AT THE                 
INT/GSO TAF SITES...VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.              
FEW OR SCT070 DIURNAL CU WILL ABATE BY SUNSET...WITH SCT UPPER LEVEL            
CLOUD COVER ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST.               
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND                   
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. NORTHERN TAF            
SITES MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AND ASSOC LOW               
CIGS/VIS SUN AFT/EVE IF REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO RIDE NW FLOW            
ALOFT AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO NC...THIS IS A             
LONG SHOT THOUGH AND MOST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE              
AREA IN VA.                                                                     
VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS             
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. A CHANCE OF            
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE               
UPCOMING WEEK IF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT WEST AS THE                  
LATEST GFS RUN IS INDICATING...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER               
RESTRICTIONS (OTHER THAN MVFR HZ OR MVFR PRE-DAWN FOG) ARE EXPECTED             
DURING THE PERIOD. -VINCENT                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THE FORECAST OF THE EXPANSION OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD                 
FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS WEEK                      
GENERALLY MEANS VERY DRY AND HOT WEATHER FOR CENTRAL NORTH                      
CAROLINA. SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ESPECIALLY                 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (AUGUST 6-9). SEE THE LIST BELOW.                        
IN ADDITION... THE DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN. DAILY HIGHS                 
IN THE 95-100 RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL AND                 
VERY HIGH EVAPORATION RATES TO EXACERBATE THE CURRENT DROUGHT.                  
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR AUGUST 6-9 INCLUDE:                                      
                  AUGUST 6... AUGUST 7... AUGUST 8... AUGUST 9                  
RALEIGH-DURHAM... 97 (1999)...100(1999)...101 (1999)...100 (2001)               
GREENSBORO........97 (1977)... 99(1977)... 96 (1980)... 99 (1930)               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...BADGETT                                                            
LONG TERM...BADGETT                                                             
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
CLIMATE...BADGETT                                                               
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO                   
LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...CROSSING THE REGION                  
ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH                
THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
FORECAST DILEMMA OVER THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF                
CONVECTION THE REGION WILL RECEIVE.  WILL USE LATEST RUC40 AND 09Z              
SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM FORECAST.                        
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SERN IOWA...SE INTO W CNTRL                    
IL...SWRN INDIANA...THEN ALONG AND NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARD            
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN                     
RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT            
NE AS A WARM FRONT.  MOSAIC RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS             
SHOWING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
ACRS SE OHIO...NRN WEST VA...THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VLY             
ACRS FAR SRN OHIO... NRN KY AND SRN INDIANA.  MOST OF THIS                      
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AS IT IS BASICALLY               
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  FARTHER TO THE              
NW...SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACRS CNTRL INDIANA.  THIS                   
CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE SE INTO THE WHITEWATER/MIAMI RIVER VLY              
LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO                    
DIMINISH SOMETIME THIS EVENING. CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE                       
WEST...NEAR SE IOWA...IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT W CNTRL ILLINOIS AND                
SWRN INDIANA THIS EVENING. ALL IN ALL...WILL EMPLOY 20 TO 30 POPS               
IN THE AFFECTED REGIONS THROUGH 06Z. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER S/WV                  
WILL PIVOT TOWARD THE IOWA/NE NEBRASKA REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL                
COMBINE WITH AN INCREASING MOIST 925 MB-850 MB LOW LVL JET. THIS                
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN MCS ACRS THE IOWA...WRN WISCONSIN...SWRN               
MICHIGAN...NW INDIANA AND NRN ILLINOIS REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.              
IF THE CONVECTION CONGEALS INTO A SIZABLE MCS...THE 850 MB-300 MB               
THERMAL WIND SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL PROPAGATE FROM NNW TO A SSE                  
DIRECTION RIGHT INTO OUR FCST REGION. FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE POPS              
TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE WEST TOWARD MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL                   
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. &&                         
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
ON SUNDAY...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE             
TO SPREAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA.  HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE 09Z                
SREF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE NE            
TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...WITH CHC POPS FAR SOUTH AND WEST.  DUE            
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...AND A WARM             
FRONT THAT MAY BE SLOWED BECAUSE OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR...HAVE                  
CONTOURED HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER                 
90S SOUTHWEST. IT COULD END UP BEING MUCH COOLER IF CLOUDS AND                  
PCPN LINGER TOO LONG INTO MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING                 
FOR THE MID SHIFT TO CONSIDER AND THE DAY SHIFT ON SUNDAY.                      
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL               
LIFT NE OF THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY AN APCHING COLD FRONT FROM THE              
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  OPERATIONAL 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS CONTINUE TO               
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO ON MONDAY...WHILE               
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IN                 
ANY CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE REGION DUE TO THE                
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS WILL                  
INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FCST              
TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY               
APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEAT ADVISORIES                
YET AS THIS IS IN THE FOURTH PERIOD ATTM...BUT MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY               
HAVE TO CONSIDER IT.                                                            
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                      
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL LIFT NE AS A WARM                 
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING THE REGION IN A HOT...MOIST AIRMASS                
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE LOW CHC/S POPS THROUGH THE                        
PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS                   
WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO               
MID 90S.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE                  
CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW HOT WEATHER TO PERSIST. A SERIES OF SHORT                
WAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND EFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY            
REGION DURING THE MID AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. TIMING AND CHANCE             
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.                                 
AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL EFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WED            
THROUGH THURS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT SO              
SLGT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS CONTINUE IN FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.                    
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.                                                           
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 90S EACH DAY. SATURDAYS             
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.                     
CONTINUED CONSERVATIVE AND KEPT CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE IN LOW TO MID             
90S...MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH BY SAT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING IN BEHIND A FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO            
AND INDIANA. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR. SCT CU WILL DEVELOP AFTER              
15Z WITH ISOLD CB 19Z-02Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 10                  
KTS...DEPENDING ON PROXIMITY TO THE BNDRY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURNING             
SE AFTER 06Z.                                                                   
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT INTO REGION THROUGH 00Z...WITH MID CLOUDS                
00Z-03Z. THE NAM REMAINS SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH A S/W                    
MOVING ALONG THE BNDRY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN. LOOKING AT RUN TO RUN               
VARIABILITY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE                
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z                 
AND HAVE ADDED VCSH WITH CB 06Z-08Z WEST TO EAST.                               
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...PARKER                                                              
AVIATION...PARKER                                                               
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
145 PM MDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...VIS SAT SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS ERODED OVER            
MOST OF THE SD PLAINS...THOUGH THE DECK IS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTH              
CENTRAL SD. CU FIELD DEVELOPED QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE               
BLACK HILLS AND NE WY. SURFACE OBS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE               
EXTENDING ACROSS ACROSS THE WESTERN SD BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID             
TO UPPER 60S ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RUC AND NAM BOTH            
SHOW CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG ALONG THE DRY LINE...WITH THE HILLS             
REACHING OVER 2000 J/KG. THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE                
AREA...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST THAT HAD MORE CLOUD COVER THIS                  
MORNING WILL REMAIN CAPPED THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS             
OVER THE HILLS TO 30...AND ADDED 20 POPS ACROSS NE WY AND WRN SD.               
THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE               
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.                                               
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.               
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING AN ACTIVE                
PATTERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE              
CWA AIDING WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION TOMORROW. INSTABILITY IS NOT              
LACKING WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS TO            
2000 TO 3000 J/KG OVER THE HILLS. WITH A JET STREAK ACROSS ND                   
ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR...COULD SEE SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE                
AGAIN TOMORROW.                                                                 
EXTENDED...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST            
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE                         
AREA...CREATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER VARIOUS                   
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE               
WELL INTO THE 90S ON THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT TSTMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING               
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA                   
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/RICHARDS                                                               
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1100 AM MDT SAT AUG 4 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM            
ERN MT DOWN THROUGH ERN WY. WATER VAPOR SHOWING A SERIES OF SUBTLE              
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NRN WYOMING AND SRN IDAHO. VIS SAT SHOWING             
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...WHICH IS SLOWLY                   
DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. LATEST RUC AND NAM SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF             
INSTABILITY ACROSS NE WY AND ESPECIALLY THE BLACK HILLS THIS                    
AFTERNOON W/ CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. WITH THE PRESENT LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE...FORECAST PROFILES SHOW THE CAP ERODING BY EARLY                      
AFTERNOON. SAT SHOWING CU DECK QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HILLS                
ATTM...SO HAVE ADDED 30 POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND 20              
POPS ALONG THE WY-MT/SD BORDER. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW                 
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WIND BOTH BEING THREATS.                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [310 AM MDT]...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES             
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH               
SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL               
ANALYSIS INDICATING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY               
HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...BROAD AREA OF               
STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN INTO              
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.                                                           
FOR TODAY...LOW STRATUS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS MORNING GIVING WAY            
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE NOON HOUR. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP             
AS FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THIS AFTERNOON INTO                
TONIGHT...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST MAY                 
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NE WYO PUSHING INTO            
WRN SD IN THE EVENING. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH            
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S. A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH            
INTO THE AREA BY THE EVENING WHEN MODELS ARE INDICATING CAPE VALUES             
OF 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN CWFA. WITH THIS...HAVE UPPED POPS            
SLIGHTLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS EASTWARD. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO            
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.                      
EXTENDED...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.              
HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THERE ARE NO DISTINCT WAVES               
MOVING THROUGH...WITH A DECENT CAP IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE               
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL            
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY                     
AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN                        
WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN                                 
MONTANA...SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING             
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/RICHARDS                                                               
</pre> sd