FXUS61 KRLX 030740
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
340 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2003

SOME NE WIND FINALLY SHOWING UP ON 88D PROFILE HERE.  SO FRONTAL 
ZONE SOUTH OF CRW...RUNNING FROM NEAR RIC TO BKW TO SOUTHERN KY. 
HARD TO DETERMINE CLOUD COVER TODAY.  WILL NEED SOME VISUAL IMAGERY
TO HELP FINETUNE TEMPERATURES AND POPS BY LATE THIS MORNING.  

AT THIS UNCIVILIZED HOUR - DECIDED THAT COOLING ALOFT FROM UPPER AIR 
SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH TO MENTION CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ONLY MENTIONED T FOR 
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  CARRIED POPS INTO TONIGHT FOR SAME DISTURBANCE.

NO CHANGE ON TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.  DID INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR MONDAY AND INCREASED 
SOUTHEAST WINDS.  

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS BEYOND MONDAY.  INCREASED POPS TO 40 MONDAY 
NIGHT FOR CONTINUED WARM FRONTAL ACTION.  LITTLE RIPPLES MOVE ACROSS 
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE POPS.  00Z GFS RUN 
SHOWING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY.  NOT READY TO BUY THIS 
TOTALLY YET SO REDUCED POP TO SLIGHT CHANCE.  ALSO TWEAKED CLOUD 
GRIDS A BIT...NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ISC.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE. 
OH...NONE.

END / BATTY/CL

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905 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPARENTLY  
ORGANIZED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHES 
FROM CKB-HTS-LEX AT 9 PM. EXPECT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE 
SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN...WITH ANY OF THE ACTIVITY STILL 
LEFT BY MIDNIGHT TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  
OTHERWISE...JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS REDEVELOPING 
OVERNIGHT AS ANY NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE 
MAIN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. WINDS 
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME 
ENTRENCHING INTO AREA OTHER THAN THE FAR NORTH...SO THERE MAY BE 
POCKETS OF FOG WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...BUT 
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ZONES.

.END/JMV     

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245 PM EDT FRI MAY 2003

...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT DRAPPING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA KEEP 
COOL MOIST UNSTABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.  WILL NOT BE ABLE TO 
SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OUT OF CLOUDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT 
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.  THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT THE 
GFS HAD TRIED TO MAKE A CLOSED LOW OUT OF IN PREVIOUS DAYS.  

...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
ETA/GFS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH WEAKLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIVING 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA...BRINGING IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.  LOW CLOUDS 
ALSO LOOK AS IF THEY WILL HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER SATURDAY NIGHT AS 
WELL.  AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE LINGERED A 
LOW CHANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG MTNS.  

DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE 
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM FRONT 
PUSHING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ETA STILL 
FASTER THAN GFS.  BOTH MODELS GIVING QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF A HALF 
INCH OVER LARGE AREAS BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE WITH 
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE.  WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS 
AND INCREASE A BIT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO 40.  AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH 
MONDAY POPS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST.  SHOULD SEE A MIN IN POPS 
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...

KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  NEXT DRY PERIOD 
SEEMS TO BE ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

KF/HC/ELW

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1028 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003
...MORNING UPDATE DISCUSSION...

WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING IN FORECAST 
ZONES.  AS PREVIOUS ZONE ISSUANCE...KEPT THE MENTION OF 
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST ZONE GROUPING.  AT 
14Z...THE FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...ABOUT TO ENTER THE 
CWA.  WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY 
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.


.END/ KF

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