AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
925 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
00Z SURFACE PLOT SHOWED THE COLD FRONT JUST E OF AN ALBANY GA TO                
DESTIN FL LINE. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS TRYING TO KEEP ALIVE             
ALONG THE FRONT GENERALLY SW OF MARIANNA OUT INTO THE COASTAL                   
WATERS. SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE E OF                         
ALBANY...LIKELY THANKS TO GOOD DPVA ALOFT AHEAD OF THE WELL DEFINED             
UPPER VORT MAX OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE 08/00Z TAE SOUNDING               
WAS STILL VERY WET AT 2.25" PWAT...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF LARGE               
SCALE LIFT...AS LAPSE RATES HAD STEEPENED TO PROVIDE UNMODIFIED                 
CAPES AROUND 2800 J/KG.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                        
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY BEHIND             
THE FRONT. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR MOST AREAS BASED ON CURRENT                
RADAR PRESENTATION. EXPECT ACTIVITY OVER OUR NE CWFA WILL BE SHORT              
LIVED AS THE VORT MAX EJECTS NE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOADED LATEST RUC WINDS...WHICH STILL KEEP OUR FAR WRN WATERS AROUND            
15 KT BY DAYBREAK. SPEED AND LIMITED DURATION OF STRONGER WINDS                 
SHOULD KEEP SEAS FROM REACHING SCEC LEVELS. THUS...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE            
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
REMNANT SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE                
AROUND ABY BY 02Z. VLD COULD SEE 1-2 HOURS OF TSRA IN THE VICINITY.             
OVERNIGHT, WE SHOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN                
06-08Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT DHN. IFR CIGS AND MVFR                
VSBYS WERE INCLUDED IN TEMPO GROUPS AFTER 08Z AT ABY, VLD, AND TLH,             
BEHIND THE FRONT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON SAT                  
BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE 2ND 1/2 OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS             
IS BASED ON THE GFS SOLUTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...TJT                                                             
AVIATION...MAW                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1030 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY...                           
CURRENT...SFC OBS/SAT IMAGERY SHOW BROAD DEEP LAYER LOW CONTINUING              
TO SPIN OVER THE ERN GOMEX. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW...DEEP                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED SOUPY TROPICAL AIR MASS NWD ACROSS             
FL. MEAN PWATS THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY A TENTH EITHER SIDE OF               
2.4". MULTI-LAYERED CLDS RESULTING IN A BKN-OVC CONDS AREAWIDE. 88D             
MOSAIC SHOWS SCT LGT-MDT SHRA EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM AL/GA SWD              
THROUGH PENINSULAR FL ALL THE WAY TO (AND SOUTH OF) THE KEYS/STRAITS.           
LOOKING WWD OVER THE GOMEX...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC UPPER RH FIELDS            
SHOW LARGE SWATH OF STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING EDGING SLOWLY EWD             
ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX AND TWD WRN FL. A POS TILT TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED            
UPSTREAM...WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM LK SUPR SWWD ACROSS THE UPR             
MS VLY...AND INTO KS/OK/TX/NM.                                                  
TODAY/TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WELL UPSTREAM DIGS SEWD TWD THE             
OH/TN AND MID MS VLYS...IT WILL BEGIN TO EJECT THE GOMEX LOW E-ENE              
WITH IT'S MID-UPPER REFLECTION OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES             
OVER FL THRU TONIGHT.                                                           
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT VIA WIDESPREAD H25 DIVG/INCRSG H50 PVA WILL KEEP            
CWA SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS AND ALLOWING FOR REGENERATION OF SHRA/ISOLD           
TS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MID-UPPER WINDS SHIFTING TO SW WILL BEGIN TO             
ADVECT SHARP DRYING (ABOVE H60) INTO THE PENINSULA...RESULTING IN               
MUCH LOWER PWAT AIR BEGINNING TONIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MINIMAL CHGS TO THE CWF AS BUOY OBS STILL SUPPORT SCA SEAS            
EVERYWHERE...WITH MUCH STRONGER WINDS OVER THE 20-60NM LEG (20KT AT             
41010...SO 15-20 IS PROBABLY A SAFE BET THERE). MAY BE ABLE TO PARE             
OUTER LEGS BACK TO JUST AN ADV FOR SEAS TONIGHT.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE SCT MVFR SHRA BECMG NMRS WITH ISOLD IFR CIGS/            
VSBYS/TS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HRS.                                 
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET                   
   0-20 NM OFFSHORE.                                                            
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET                            
   20-60 NM OFFSHORE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI                                                          
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
625 PM EST FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTED AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS                
ACRS SRN MICHIGAN/NRN INDIANA/NW OHIO.  CLOUD HEIGHTS WERE GENERALLY            
AROUND 4500 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 850 MB LVL.  18Z NAM WAS               
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS MSTR...WHILE THE 18Z GFS AND THE LATEST RUC40            
WERE CAPTURING IT MUCH BETTER.  BELIEVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL                 
LINGER FOR AWHILE UNTIL A S/WV...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE                      
REGION...PASSES BY...AND HOPEFULLY BRINGS SOME SUBSIDENCE TO ERODE              
THE CLOUD DECK.  WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT                
KSBN UNTIL 06Z AND AT KFWA UNTIL 09Z.  AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL BE              
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 15Z...ALLOWING MID LVL RIDGING TO TAKE                 
PLACE IN ITS WAKE.  CUMULUS RULE DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY              
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...PROBABLY DUE IN PART THAT               
850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...EQUATING INTO A LESS STEEP              
LAPSE RATE (NOT AS UNSTABLE).  CLOSER EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS            
INDICATE THAT MSTR BETWEEN THE 925 MB AND 850 MB LAYER MAY GENERATE             
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET.  WILL ADD               
SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THE TAFS AROUND 14Z...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY                 
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS DUE TO MIXING.  WILL NOT GO BKN MVFR ATTM AS             
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT ON WHAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY                                                            
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE OHIO            
VALLEY YESTERDAY NOW WELL EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO WESTERN PA.               
ASSOCIATED SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE IS VERY SHALLOW HOWEVER WITH SW FLOW            
AS LOW AS 800MB CONTINUING OVER THE CWA TODAY. A PACKET OF ENERGY               
AND MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TS TAMMY IS BECOMING CAPTURED BY              
THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND IS MOVING NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS.                      
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOPING                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OHIO              
TODAY. EXPECT ANY RAIN TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH                   
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINING FROM CENTRAL OHIO EASTWARD.                 
OTHERWISE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD AND             
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED                
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. MEANWHILE OVER                
MUCH OF INDIANA NOT MUCH AT ALL IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CU HAVE FORMED            
TODAY DUE TO A STEEP AND SHALLOW INVERSION. NAM VERY AGGRESSIVE IN              
ADVECTING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD FIELD SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA              
TONIGHT UNDERNEATH THE STEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION. THE TYPICAL                
BIAS OF THE NAM IS TO BE TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL CARRY                
MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE             
LESS MOIST GFS AND GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION            
WILL BE OVER NW OHIO CLOSER TO THE THICKER FRONTAL CLOUD SHIELD                 
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WILL BE USED. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT              
REMAINS TONIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT THE SURFACE FROM FULLY                       
DECOUPLING. WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S MOST AREAS WITH A FEW              
UPPER 30S FROM KGSH TO KBEH.                                                    
QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN A DIFFICULT                
CLOUD FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CU FORMATION IN QUESTION. WILL GO WITH            
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING EVERYWHERE FOR NOW WITH HIGHEST CLOUD                     
PERCENTAGE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE OVER OHIO.             
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                                   
BLOCKY SPLIT FLW ACRS CONUS THIS PD W/DOMINANT SRN STREAM DICTATING             
SENSIBLE WX PATTN AND GENERAL DETACHMENT FM NRN STREAM ACRS ERN US              
KEEPING THINGS MILD. OF NOTE CONTS TO BE SFC RIDGING THRU THE GOMEX             
AND LACK OF RTN FLW DVLPMNT...ESPECIALLY INADV OF STG SW TROF OVER              
NE PAC WHICH DIGS INLAND INTO FOUR CORNERS EARLY ON AND WHICH THEN              
EJECTS OUT AND MINORS MID NXT WEEK. LEAD IMPULSE AHD OF THIS FTR                
LIFTING OUT OF SRN PLAINS MON LOOKS MSTR STARVED TOO W/LTL MORE THEN            
MID/HIGH CLD INCREASE THEN SO HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY AT THIS POINT.               
OTHERWISE...SLOW TEMP MODERATION ON TAP W/AOA READINGS XPCD BY TUE.             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN                                                       
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                          
LONG TERM....HOLSTEN                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1257 PM EST FRI OCT 7 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOWER MVFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE ERODED AWAY TODAY                
WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD STREAMING OVER NORTHERN                
INDIANA AND MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.                
THIS HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY ROBUST DIURNAL CU                      
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED SURFACE HEATING. MAIN                   
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DECK TO               
REFORM. NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING                 
TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT INTO                
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE GFS IS MUCH LEANER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
FIELDS. NAM TYPICALLY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SOME CREDENCE GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK             
UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL SCATTER CLOUDS OUT FOR               
THE OVERNIGHT BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF                
AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM MVFR STRATUS DECK FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN             
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ALL MENTION            
OF PRECIP. OVER NW OHIO SHIELD OF RAIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS A             
PIECE OF THE REMNANTS OF TS TAMMY ADVANCES UP THE MID LATITUDE COLD             
FRONT WHICH CROSSED OUR REGION YESTERDAY. DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL                  
ADVECTION PATTERN OVER OHIO PRODUCING A REGION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE            
ACROSS THE SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE. THE WESTERN MOST BAND OF PRECIP HAS            
NOW PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND EXPECT ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWER                
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF A KAOH TO KTOL LINE.                         
HAVE ALSO REMOVED MORNING LAKE EFFECT POPS FOR BERRIEN AND LAPORTE              
COUNTIES. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED NE AS EXPECTED WITH WEAK               
AND DISORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING OFFSHORE. AN                    
INTERESTING NON-EVENT LAKE EFFECT WISE LATE LAST NIGHT. LAKE INDUCED            
CAPE AROUND 500J/KG AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 6K               
FEET. NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE BUT WOULD STILL NORMALLY EXPECT MORE                  
ACTIVITY THAN WAS OBSERVED GIVEN WELL ALIGNED FLOW AND AMPLE                    
MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION. THINK THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WAS              
THE LACK OF FAVORABLE COLD CLOUD MICROPHYSICS WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT            
CLOUD PLUME. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER ONLY 0C TO             
-2C...NOT NEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THE BERGERON-FINDEISEN PROCESS                 
WHEREBY SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS DEPOSIT ON ICE CRYSTALS. THE MOST            
FAVORABLE CLOUD TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS -12C TO -18C.            
THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD LAYER IS TOO SHALLOW FOR               
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN CLOUD PROCESSES. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE               
20KM FSL DEVELOPMENT RUC...NORMALLY RELIABLE IN LAKE EFFECT                     
PRECIPITATION...PERFORMED VERY POORLY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY                     
DEVELOPED A RATHER POTENT LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND. AN INTERESTING                 
EVENT...OR NON-EVENT.                                                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE             
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH. JUST THE SLIGHTEST OF             
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN            
PART OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING AND ALSO LEFT THE SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN             
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS RADARS TO OUR EAST ARE              
SHOWING RAIN JUST TO OUR EAST MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...ALSO THERE IS              
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND MODELS            
SHOW QPF MOVING NORTHWARD UP THIS AND THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF              
OUR CWA IS JUST ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES. HAVING A SMALL               
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA ALSO                    
COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO             
HAS A SMALL POP FOR THERE. THEN THE SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE                   
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY MORE INTO THE AREA AND               
THE MOISTURE FIELD TO OUR EAST GETS PUSHED FURTHER EASTWARD. WITH               
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE             
COOL SIDE.                                                                      
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                    
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS OF CONCERN THAT MAY EVENTUALLY ALTER AN OTHERWISE             
DRY FORECAST. FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF TAMMY MOVING UP ALONG                   
APPLACIANS. AS IT DOES..HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER SOUTHEASTERN             
CANADA THAT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL             
SPREAD MOISTURE WESTWARD TOWARD OUR OHIO COUNTIES. HOWEVER...BEST               
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE APPLACIANS KEEPING THE                 
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO OUR EAST INITIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.            
UPPER TROUGH THEN KICKS OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TAKES ON NEGATIVE            
TILT AS IT MOVES UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SUSTAINING CLOUD COVER               
OVER THE AREA BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CLOSED LOW THEN PROGGED TO                
MOVE OUT OF FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONLY               
SFC REFLECTION FROM GFS ATTM IS INVERTED TROUGH. UPPER LOW OPENS UP             
AND SHEARS OUT AS IT TRIES TO CONTINUE EASTWARD PROVIDING ENOUGH                
UNCERTAINTY TO AGAIN STAY WITH DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT            
THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME            
OF YEAR.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...HITCHCOCK                                                     
SHORT TERM...BML                                                                
LONG TERM....JAL                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1016 AM EST FRI OCT 7 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ALL MENTION            
OF PRECIP. OVER NW OHIO SHIELD OF RAIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS A             
PIECE OF THE REMNANTS OF TS TAMMY ADVANCES UP THE MID LATITUDE COLD             
FRONT WHICH CROSSED OUR REGION YESTERDAY. DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL                  
ADVECTION PATTERN OVER OHIO PRODUCING A REGION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE            
ACROSS THE SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE. THE WESTERN MOST BAND OF PRECIP HAS            
NOW PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND EXPECT ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWER                
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF A KAOH TO KTOL LINE.                         
HAVE ALSO REMOVED MORNING LAKE EFFECT POPS FOR BERRIEN AND LAPORTE              
COUNTIES. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED NE AS EXPECTED WITH WEAK               
AND DISORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING OFFSHORE. AN                    
INTERESTING NON-EVENT LAKE EFFECT WISE LATE LAST NIGHT. LAKE INDUCED            
CAPE AROUND 500J/KG AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 6K               
FEET. NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE BUT WOULD STILL NORMALLY EXPECT MORE                  
ACTIVITY THAN WAS OBSERVED GIVEN WELL ALIGNED FLOW AND AMPLE                    
MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION. THINK THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WAS              
THE LACK OF FAVORABLE COLD CLOUD MICROPHYSICS WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT            
CLOUD PLUME. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER ONLY 0C TO             
-2C...NOT NEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THE BERGERON-FINDEISEN PROCESS                 
WHEREBY SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS DEPOSIT ON ICE CRYSTALS. THE MOST            
FAVORABLE CLOUD TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS -12C TO -18C.            
THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUD LAYER IS TOO SHALLOW FOR               
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN CLOUD PROCESSES. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE               
20KM FSL DEVELOPMENT RUC...NORMALLY RELIABLE IN LAKE EFFECT                     
PRECIPITATION...PERFORMED VERY POORLY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY                     
DEVELOPED A RATHER POTENT LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND. AN INTERESTING                 
EVENT...OR NON-EVENT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS OVER SBN AND TO THE WEST OF SBN WILL                  
CONTINUE THERE TODAY UNTIL THE HIGH WORKS ITS WAY MORE INTO THE                 
REGION THIS EVENING, PUSHING THEM EASTWARD. FWA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE            
PERIPHERY OF ANY CLOUD SHIELDS TODAY MAINTAINING MID AND HIGH LEVEL             
VFR CLOUDS AT FWA. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL              
KEEP THE WIND BLOWING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT               
ALONG WITH THE SUN'S ENERGY TODAY WILL INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS SOME            
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE             
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH. JUST THE SLIGHTEST OF             
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN            
PART OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING AND ALSO LEFT THE SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN             
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS RADARS TO OUR EAST ARE              
SHOWING RAIN JUST TO OUR EAST MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...ALSO THERE IS              
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND MODELS            
SHOW QPF MOVING NORTHWARD UP THIS AND THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF              
OUR CWA IS JUST ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES. HAVING A SMALL               
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA ALSO                    
COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO             
HAS A SMALL POP FOR THERE. THEN THE SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE                   
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY MORE INTO THE AREA AND               
THE MOISTURE FIELD TO OUR EAST GETS PUSHED FURTHER EASTWARD. WITH               
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE             
COOL SIDE.                                                                      
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                    
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS OF CONCERN THAT MAY EVENTUALLY ALTER AN OTHERWISE             
DRY FORECAST. FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF TAMMY MOVING UP ALONG                   
APPLACIANS. AS IT DOES..HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER SOUTHEASTERN             
CANADA THAT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL             
SPREAD MOISTURE WESTWARD TOWARD OUR OHIO COUNTIES. HOWEVER...BEST               
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE APPLACIANS KEEPING THE                 
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO OUR EAST INITIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.            
UPPER TROUGH THEN KICKS OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TAKES ON NEGATIVE            
TILT AS IT MOVES UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SUSTAINING CLOUD COVER               
OVER THE AREA BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CLOSED LOW THEN PROGGED TO                
MOVE OUT OF FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONLY               
SFC REFLECTION FROM GFS ATTM IS INVERTED TROUGH. UPPER LOW OPENS UP             
AND SHEARS OUT AS IT TRIES TO CONTINUE EASTWARD PROVIDING ENOUGH                
UNCERTAINTY TO AGAIN STAY WITH DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT            
THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME            
OF YEAR.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HITCHCOCK                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BML                                                       
LONG TERM....JAL                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1015 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                      
.EVENING UPDATE...                                                              
UPDATED FORECAST TO TAKE OUT THE EVENING WORDING AND MAKE A                     
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. LOW CLOUDS ARE HOLDING OVER THE FA              
WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE                 
CLOUDS. CLOUD BASES REMAIN HIGHER ALONG THE WESTERN SECTIONS...3-5              
THSD FT...WHILE LOWER CEILINGS...BELOW 1 THSD FT...AND DRIZZLE                  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA.  WILL CONTINUE TREND OF            
GRADUALLY SPREADING THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST AS THE NIGHT                    
PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR IN THE MORNING WITH SOME               
BREAKS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE             
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.  - SCHOLZ                                                 
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
SHORT TERM FCST STILL CENTERS ON CLOUD-CLEAR LINE AND RESULTANT                 
TEMPS FOR TNGT AND SATURDAY. LATEST VIS IMAGERY AT 1830 UTC SHOW                
SHARP CLOUD GRADIENT FROM S-CNTRL IN TO BARELY W OF SDF TO ABOUT                
MIDWAY BTWN HOP AND BWG (OR APPROACHING RUSSELLVILLE). TRENDS IN OBS            
DATA AND LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL DATA SUGGEST CLEARING LINE SHOULD             
MAKE IT TO OR JUST PAST SDF AND BWG LATE THIS AFTN CONTINUING INTO              
EARLY EVNG. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS             
AFTN ALONG AND W OF THIS LINE. FARTHER E...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SOCKED            
IN ALONG WITH PATCHY LGT RAIN LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG ASSOCD WITH               
UPR DEFORMATION ZONE...SO WILL CONT WITH MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS                 
THERE. ALSO...BNA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS                
OVER ERN TN MOVING NEWD AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL MOSTLY               
REMAIN E OF FCST AREA.                                                          
AS FOR LATER TNGT...ALL SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT CLEARING                
LINE WILL STOP ITS EWD PROGRESS AND LIKELY DRIFT WESTWARD AGAIN AS              
BNDRY-LAYER (E.G. 925 MB) WINDS BECOME MORE NELY. TIME-HT CROSS                 
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW SATURATED BNDRY LAYER                 
BENEATH INVERSION AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...SKY WILL REMAIN            
CLOUDY EASTERN AREAS AND SHOULD BECOME MSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY                   
WESTERN AREAS ALONG WITH PATCHY DRZL OVERNGT. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT             
FALL TOO MUCH UNDER THE CLOUD COVER. LOWEST TEMPS SHOULD BE IN WRN              
PART OF S-CNTRL IN WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT COME BACK UNTIL LATER TNGT.            
ON SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COOL NLY/NELY BNDRY LYR FLOW                  
SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER MOST OF FCST               
AREA. THIS ALSO WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP             
DIURNAL RISE LIMITED. THUS...FAVOR THE OVERALL LOWER MET GUIDANCE               
MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY VS. THE HIGHER NGM AND GFS BASED MOS. -TWF               
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
THE FIRST MAJOR PROBLEM IS DEALING WITH THE MIX OF CLOUDS AND                   
POSSIBLE R-/L- DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME.                
LATEST GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HT CROSS SECTIONS                   
INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL RH LINGERING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL             
OF FCST AREA DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME PERIOD. SO MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD LOOKS GOOD BUT WITH A TIGHT CLEAR              
TO CLOUD GRADIENT JUST TO THE WEST OF FCST AREA...MUCH LIKE TODAY.              
USING THE NAM AS MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY...IT FORECASTS A SHORT WAVE              
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE             
DEEPEST RH AND MOST LIFT TO THE EAST...WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF            
R- AND L- DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN              
THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. LOWERED MAXS AND RAISED MINS A FEW DEGS                 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.                    
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO                
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.                                                          
THE FINAL MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEM IS POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE IN THE                
NEXT WORK WEEK. WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO               
INDICATE A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE            
MID AND LATE TIME PERIOD NEXT WEEK...AND HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING                
SAME...WE DECIDED ON INTRODUCING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING               
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. BUT...THE                    
BASIC TEMP TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE                  
CURRENT FCST PROJECTIONS SO NOT MUCH CHANGES MADE THERE. --21                   
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
327 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NRN                
1/2 OF ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL                            
SCALE...SHORTWAVE UPPER LOW. THE 12KM NAM AND 40KM RUC ARE SLOWER               
WITH THE E-SEWD TRANSLATION OF THIS FEATURE TOWARD THE PAH                      
FORECAST AREA AND IS PREFERRED FOR CLOUD COVER FORECAST THIS                    
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THIS                                
SHORTWAVE/LOW...AGEOSTROPHIC WIND RESPONSE AND LOWERED MIXING                   
RATIOS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD INHIBIT THE PRODUCTION OF                 
ANY WIDESPREAD FROST IN THE PAH FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS ANY                  
DRIZZLE ON THE EASTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. ABOUT THE ONLY                 
ARE WHERE FROST MAY OCCUR WILL BE IN THE PROTECTED AREAS OF THE                 
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FOOTHILLS...MAINLY IN CARTER/WAYNE COUNTIES IN               
MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH A MARKED DROP OF 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AT WFO                 
PAH...SOIL TEMPERATURES WERE STILL RANGING BETWEEN 68-76 DEGREES                
TODAY...DEPENDING ON THE GROUND COVER. THE FLUX OF TERRESTRIAL                  
RADIATION SHOULD INHIBIT TOO MUCH COOLING OF GROUND SURFACE                     
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH                 
SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION THROUGH THE REGION. THE              
CLOUD COVER FORECAST MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY               
NEED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CATEGORY.                      
NAM/GFS GENERATE A CLOSED LOW OVER OK/ERN TX ON SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN              
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...THIS FEATURE WILL DO LITTLE                  
EXCEPT TO ADD A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY RETARD THE DIURNAL                      
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.                                                       
.LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN                     
U.S...AND SLOWLY BUILD A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST               
AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY IS                    
PROGGED BY THE NAM/GFS NUMERICAL MODELS TO TRANSLATE INTO THE                   
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WORKING TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF                        
MEXICO...THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL BE THAT PULLED WITH THE               
SYSTEM ITSELF.                                                                  
INTRODUCED A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS INTO PART OF                     
SOUTHWEST IL WEDNESDAY NIGHTA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES SEWD                 
(NW FLOW) AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW (WHICH MOVES                  
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES)...BUT VERY RELUCTANTLY. SUSPECT                  
THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL AT THIS TIME.                            
OTHERWISE...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH                  
NEXT WEEKEND...AS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED OVER THE CONTINENTAL                 
U.S. EAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
245 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
SHORT TERM FCST STILL CENTERS ON CLOUD-CLEAR LINE AND RESULTANT                 
TEMPS FOR TNGT AND SATURDAY. LATEST VIS IMAGERY AT 1830 UTC SHOW                
SHARP CLOUD GRADIENT FROM S-CNTRL IN TO BARELY W OF SDF TO ABOUT                
MIDWAY BTWN HOP AND BWG (OR APPROACHING RUSSELLVILLE). TRENDS IN OBS            
DATA AND LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL DATA SUGGEST CLEARING LINE SHOULD             
MAKE IT TO OR JUST PAST SDF AND BWG LATE THIS AFTN CONTINUING INTO              
EARLY EVNG. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS             
AFTN ALONG AND W OF THIS LINE. FARTHER E...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SOCKED            
IN ALONG WITH PATCHY LGT RAIN LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG ASSOCD WITH               
UPR DEFORMATION ZONE...SO WILL CONT WITH MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS                 
THERE. ALSO...BNA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS                
OVER ERN TN MOVING NEWD AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL MOSTLY               
REMAIN E OF FCST AREA.                                                          
AS FOR LATER TNGT...ALL SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT CLEARING                
LINE WILL STOP ITS EWD PROGRESS AND LIKELY DRIFT WESTWARD AGAIN AS              
BNDRY-LAYER (E.G. 925 MB) WINDS BECOME MORE NELY. TIME-HT CROSS                 
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW SATURATED BNDRY LAYER                 
BENEATH INVERSION AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...SKY WILL REMAIN            
CLOUDY EASTERN AREAS AND SHOULD BECOME MSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY                   
WESTERN AREAS ALONG WITH PATCHY DRZL OVERNGT. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT             
FALL TOO MUCH UNDER THE CLOUD COVER. LOWEST TEMPS SHOULD BE IN WRN              
PART OF S-CNTRL IN WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT COME BACK UNTIL LATER TNGT.            
ON SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COOL NLY/NELY BNDRY LYR FLOW                  
SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER MOST OF FCST               
AREA. THIS ALSO WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP             
DIURNAL RISE LIMITED. THUS...FAVOR THE OVERALL LOWER MET GUIDANCE               
MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY VS. THE HIGHER NGM AND GFS BASED MOS. -TWF               
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
THE FIRST MAJOR PROBLEM IS DEALING WITH THE MIX OF CLOUDS AND                   
POSSIBLE R-/L- DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME.                
LATEST GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HT CROSS SECTIONS                   
INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL RH LINGERING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL             
OF FCST AREA DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME PERIOD. SO MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD LOOKS GOOD BUT WITH A TIGHT CLEAR              
TO CLOUD GRADIENT JUST TO THE WEST OF FCST AREA...MUCH LIKE TODAY.              
USING THE NAM AS MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY...IT FORECASTS A SHORT WAVE              
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE             
DEEPEST RH AND MOST LIFT TO THE EAST...WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF            
R- AND L- DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN              
THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. LOWERED MAXS AND RAISED MINS A FEW DEGS                 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.                    
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO                
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.                                                          
THE FINAL MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEM IS POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE IN THE                
NEXT WORK WEEK. WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO               
INDICATE A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE            
MID AND LATE TIME PERIOD NEXT WEEK...AND HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING                
SAME...WE DECIDED ON INTRODUCING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING               
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. BUT...THE                    
BASIC TEMP TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE                  
CURRENT FCST PROJECTIONS SO NOT MUCH CHANGES MADE THERE. --21                   
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
956 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST THIS EVENING...AND                
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT SINCE SUNSET. WELL DEFINED                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PIVOTING SLOWLY SE INTO NW TX WILL MAKE VERY               
SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS N TX THROUGH THE NEXT 24                          
HRS...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT             
FROM THE E PACIFIC. OF MAIN CONCERN IS THE LOW AC DECK HANGING TOUGH            
ACROSS NE TX/EXTREME SW AR...WHICH APPEARS THE BE ALONG A WEAK                  
750-700MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO W LA.            
3 KM WINDS FROM DEQ PROFILER REMAIN VERY WEAK FROM THE N...WHICH                
HOLDS TRUE AS THE N EDGE OF THIS CLOUD BANK IS DRIFTING EVER SO                 
SLOWLY S. PSN WIND PROFILER INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE W            
WIND ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH AC DECK ABOUT TO MOVE INTO             
LFK. RUC/00Z NAM INDICATING CLOUD DECK MOVING VERY LITTLE                       
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS ENCOMPASSING REMAINDER OF DEEP E TX/EXTREME NW              
LA OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO WORD SKY CONDITIONS AS            
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH            
MIXING UNDERNEATH CLOUD BLANKET TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING                    
OUT...CURRENT FORECASTS APPEARED JUST A TAD TOO COOL...SO HAVE                  
RAISED MINS A TAD IN LOCATIONS UNDERNEATH CLOUD COVER. NEW NAM ALSO             
INDICATING CLOUDS HANGING ON OVER E TX AGAIN TOMORROW...WHICH COULD             
ALSO HOLD DOWN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO               
SKY CONDITIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR SATURDAY TO            
THE MID SHIFT PENDING ADDITIONAL MODEL INFO/GUIDANCE.                           
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  54  70  53  74 /   0   0   0   0                                           
MLU  53  69  55  71 /   0   0   0   0                                           
DEQ  45  72  44  71 /   0   0   0   0                                           
TXK  50  72  50  71 /   0   0   0   0                                           
ELD  48  70  50  71 /   0   0   0   0                                           
TYR  54  68  52  76 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GGG  54  71  52  76 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LFK  54  71  51  75 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
710 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRATUS FROM COLD NORTHEAST FLOW AND LAKE INFLUENCE WILL HAVE A TOUGH           
TIME BREAKING OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS. WILL                
HAVE TO MAINTAIN THE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED CLOUDS             
OUT AFTER DAYBREAK AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES AND DRIER AIR WORKS                
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT                       
A BLOCKY AND MESSY UPPER PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WITH TROPICAL REMNANTS             
PLAGUING THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND PACIFIC JET INFLUX ENTERING THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE, WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND            
NO RADAR RETURNS, WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WITH               
THE ASSISTANCE OF 100+ 300MB JET ENTRANCE REGION OVERHEAD PROVIDING             
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  ON THE MESOSCALE...BANDS OF                 
STRATUS UNDER THE AC/CS CONTINUE TO COME IN OFF OF LAKE HURON YET NO            
REPORTS OF PRECIP FROM SURROUNDING RADAR SITES AND OBSERVATIONS.                
COOL NORTHEAST GRADIENT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM               
PERIOD.                                                                         
FOR TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SETTING            
UP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND               
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK UP THE EASTERN STATE.  THIS WILL PROLONG            
THE EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE HURON WITH INVERSION             
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALLING THRU THE NIGHT.  YET MODELS TEND TO CRASH                
THESE HEIGHTS TOO SOON AND LOOKING CLOSER AT THE RUC13 AND OTHER                
EXPERIMENTAL RUNS OF THE RUC/WRF...CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT              
OVER LAKE HURON INTO SAGINAW BAY WITH EVEN SOME HINT OF LIGHT QPF               
DEVELOPING INTO THE TRI CITIES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE THUMB.                
THIS MIGHT BE THE RESULT OF A MORE CLEARING TREND UPSTREAM AND LAND             
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FIELDS SOMEWHAT.                      
THEREFORE, WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES FOR THOSE              
COUNTIES NORTH OF I69 AND EAST OF I75.  OTHERWISE, WITH IMPRESSIVE              
INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT, LAKE STRATUS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON                
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.  WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE                      
APPROACHING...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS              
EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY MENTION OF               
PRECIP.                                                                         
HEADING INTO SATURDAY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHORT                
WAVE BECOMES STRUNG OUT AND WEAKENS EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF            
THE STATE.  EITHER WAY, THIS SHOULD INCREASE SUBSIDENCE FURTHER AND             
DRIER AIR UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND             
ASSIST WITH THE BREAK UP OF LAKE STRATUS CLOUDS.  SO WE MIGHT START             
OFF WITH MORE CLOUDS BUT TRANSITION TOWARD MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE            
DAY...PTSUNNY FORECAST!  MET NUMBERS LOOK TOO LOW AND LIKELY DUE TO             
MODELS' HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND CLOUD COVER.  WE WILL               
SHADE CLOSER TO THE MAV/FWC NUMBERS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT               
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...                                          
SURFACE RIDGE OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PRETTY MUCH HELD AT               
BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING KEEPS REAFFIRMING ITSELF IN THE            
EAST. AT 500 MB...EARLIER WEAKENED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL WOBBLING              
AROUND VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST MI SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL                
CALLING FOR A RATHER TRANQUIL FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH               
LITTLE OR NO SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. 850 TO 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY               
RATHER DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE WORKING BACK IN            
SUNDAY NIGHT. 925 MB MOISTURE...IN MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...A LITTLE              
BETTER...THOUGH EVEN THIS INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN EXPECTED                
DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND                
WIND FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON...IT WILL DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANY                 
WIDESPREAD CLEARING OR FROST THIS WEEKEND.                                      
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                        
12Z RUNS CONTINUE TO DEPICT CONSENSUS OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGHING             
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN LAKES                
REGION BY MONDAY AHEAD OF CLOSED SOUTHWESTERN USA LOW...FOLLOWED BY             
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH SHOULD SET UP AHEAD OF WESTERN LOW/TROUGH               
COMPLEX AT LEAST BY WEDNESDAY...A LITTLE EARLIER VIA 00Z/12Z                    
WRFXX...06Z DGEX...00Z GLOBAL. THEN...THE WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES IN               
AFTER MID WEEK TO BRING UNSETTLEDNESS/MOISTURE TO FORECAST AREA.                
AT THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGHINESS CONTINUING TO PUNCH NORTHWARD             
INTO EASTERN LAKES REGION AND INTO BROAD RIDGE TO THE NORTH EARLY IN            
WEEK. SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR FRONT MOVING IN FOR LATTER PART OF WEEK            
AS PER MODEL CONSENSUS.                                                         
BY MONDAY...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IN            
PLACE...WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT...WEAK 850 TO 700 MB THETA             
E RIDGE BULGING INTO AT LEAST EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE                         
EAST/SOUTHEAST... MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A LITTLE UPPER                
LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO BOOT...AND WEAK 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH                 
LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.                                        
WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME             
EASTERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA...AND MAY HAVE TO LATER EXPAND                
WEST IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONFIRM RECENT TRENDS. AS BEFORE...CHANCE              
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH             
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN THE BALL PARK.                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN           
 TO PORT HURON AND ALSO FOR SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460...UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.            
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...UNTIL 6 AM             
   SUNDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
AVIATION.....DG                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
335 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY                                              
A BLOCKY AND MESSY UPPER PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WITH TROPICAL REMNANTS             
PLAGUING THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND PACIFIC JET INFLUX ENTERING THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE, WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND            
NO RADAR RETURNS, WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WITH               
THE ASSISTANCE OF 100+ 300MB JET ENTRANCE REGION OVERHEAD PROVIDING             
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  ON THE MESOSCALE...BANDS OF                 
STRATUS UNDER THE AC/CS CONTINUE TO COME IN OFF OF LAKE HURON YET NO            
REPORTS OF PRECIP FROM SURROUNDING RADAR SITES AND OBSERVATIONS.                
COOL NORTHEAST GRADIENT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM               
PERIOD.                                                                         
FOR TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SETTING            
UP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND               
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK UP THE EASTERN STATE.  THIS WILL PROLONG            
THE EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE HURON WITH INVERSION             
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALLING THRU THE NIGHT.  YET MODELS TEND TO CRASH                
THESE HEIGHTS TOO SOON AND LOOKING CLOSER AT THE RUC13 AND OTHER                
EXPERIMENTAL RUNS OF THE RUC/WRF...CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT              
OVER LAKE HURON INTO SAGINAW BAY WITH EVEN SOME HINT OF LIGHT QPF               
DEVELOPING INTO THE TRI CITIES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE THUMB.                
THIS MIGHT BE THE RESULT OF A MORE CLEARING TREND UPSTREAM AND LAND             
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FIELDS SOMEWHAT.                      
THEREFORE, WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES FOR THOSE              
COUNTIES NORTH OF I69 AND EAST OF I75.  OTHERWISE, WITH IMPRESSIVE              
INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT, LAKE STRATUS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON                
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.  WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE                      
APPROACHING...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS              
EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY MENTION OF               
PRECIP.                                                                         
HEADING INTO SATURDAY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHORT                
WAVE BECOMES STRUNG OUT AND WEAKENS EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF            
THE STATE.  EITHER WAY, THIS SHOULD INCREASE SUBSIDENCE FURTHER AND             
DRIER AIR UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND             
ASSIST WITH THE BREAK UP OF LAKE STRATUS CLOUDS.  SO WE MIGHT START             
OFF WITH MORE CLOUDS BUT TRANSITION TOWARD MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE            
DAY...PTSUNNY FORECAST!  MET NUMBERS LOOK TOO LOW AND LIKELY DUE TO             
MODELS' HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND CLOUD COVER.  WE WILL               
SHADE CLOSER TO THE MAV/FWC NUMBERS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                      
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...                                          
SURFACE RIDGE OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PRETTY MUCH HELD AT               
BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING KEEPS REAFFIRMING ITSELF IN THE            
EAST. AT 500 MB...EARLIER WEAKENED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL WOBBLING              
AROUND VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST MI SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL                
CALLING FOR A RATHER TRANQUIL FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH               
LITTLE OR NO SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. 850 TO 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY               
RATHER DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE WORKING BACK IN            
SUNDAY NIGHT. 925 MB MOISTURE...IN MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...A LITTLE              
BETTER...THOUGH EVEN THIS INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN EXPECTED                
DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND                
WIND FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON...IT WILL DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANY                 
WIDESPREAD CLEARING OR FROST THIS WEEKEND.                                      
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                        
12Z RUNS CONTINUE TO DEPICT CONSENSUS OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGHING             
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN LAKES                
REGION BY MONDAY AHEAD OF CLOSED SOUTHWESTERN USA LOW...FOLLOWED BY             
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH SHOULD SET UP AHEAD OF WESTERN LOW/TROUGH               
COMPLEX AT LEAST BY WEDNESDAY...A LITTLE EARLIER VIA 00Z/12Z                    
WRFXX...06Z DGEX...00Z GLOBAL. THEN...THE WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES IN               
AFTER MID WEEK TO BRING UNSETTLEDNESS/MOISTURE TO FORECAST AREA.                
AT THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGHINESS CONTINUING TO PUNCH NORTHWARD             
INTO EASTERN LAKES REGION AND INTO BROAD RIDGE TO THE NORTH EARLY IN            
WEEK. SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR FRONT MOVING IN FOR LATTER PART OF WEEK AS         
PER MODEL CONSENSUS.                                                            
BY MONDAY...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IN            
PLACE...WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT...WEAK 850 TO 700 MB THETA             
E RIDGE BULGING INTO AT LEAST EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...       
MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO              
BOOT...AND WEAK 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION               
PRESSURE DEFICITS.                                                              
WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME             
EASTERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA...AND MAY HAVE TO LATER EXPAND                
WEST IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONFIRM RECENT TRENDS. AS BEFORE...CHANCE              
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH             
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN THE BALL PARK.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 100 PM EDT FRI                                               
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKS TO COLD NORTHEAST FLOW AND LAKE             
STRATUS ALONG WITH DIURNAL COMPONENT TO KEEP THESE CEILINGS NEARLY              
CONSTANT.  AS NIGHTTIME APPROACHES...INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND WE               
JUST MIGHT KEEP THIS STRATUS LAYER GOING FOR A WHILE.  AS SOME                  
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD             
SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE DECREASES ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON.  NORTHEAST WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL              
PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.                                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN           
 TO PORT HURON AND ALSO FOR SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460...UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.            
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...UNTIL 6 AM             
   SUNDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST PROBLEM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS TONIGHT.                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WRLY FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC            
NW WITH A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE HEADING THRU SRN                        
SASKATCHEWAN. DOWNSTREAM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS OVER MANITOBA/WRN               
ONTARIO...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER WRN ONTARIO. RIDGE             
AXIS RUNS SSW FROM THERE TO NW IA AND CNTRL KS. MAJOR PROBLEM FOR               
TEMP FCST TONIGHT IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION             
BASED BTWN 915 AND 850MB PER 12Z CWPL/KINL/KGRB/KAPX SOUNDINGS. CWPL            
SOUNDING IS PROBABLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS THAT               
WILL BE ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY SW INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT JUST                 
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDING                 
INDICATED THE SATURATED LAYER TO BE ONLY ABOUT 700FT THICK JUST                 
BELOW BASE OF VERY SHARP INVERSION AT 875MB...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY             
SHOWS DAYTIME HEATING HAS HAD MINIMAL IMPACT ON MIXING                          
CLOUDS/MOISTURE OUT TODAY TO THE N AND NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOUDS              
HAVEN'T BECOME TOO CELLULAR IN APPEARANCE EITHER...SUGGESTING THEY              
MAY PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. THE ONLY AREA WHERE CLEARING HAS REALLY             
TAKEN HOLD IS JUST E OF WHITEFISH BAY AND OVER FAR ERN                          
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WHERE NRLY FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OFF HIGHER            
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...LAKE EFFECT PCPN HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN THRU THE            
AFTN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MODERATING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS/INCREASING              
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. BASED ON RECENT               
TRENDS...WILL NEED TO EXTEND A MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES INTO               
THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE EVENING.                                               
WILL BE A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AS ALLUDED             
TO ABOVE. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST SINCE TEMP AT BASE OF                 
INVERSION ONLY RISES TO -1 OR -2C...BUT SINCE FLOW WILL BE VEERING              
FROM NERLY NOW TO ERLY DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS             
TO IMPACT EVENTUALLY ONLY THE AREAS FROM THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO THE             
KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...THE MASS OF STRATOCU THAT REMAINS TRAPPED BLO               
INVERSION TO THE N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY EVEN              
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL            
FLOW CERTAINLY BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO             
WRN UPPER MI BY 12Z SAT...BUT THAT DOESN'T LOOK TO GUARANTEE CLEAR              
SKIES SINCE VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL AREAS OF SCT/BKN               
CLOUD COVER JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WHERE RIDGE AXIS WAS                
LOCATED. SEEMS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO CLEAR IS WHERE ERLY FLOW             
DOWNSLOPES. THAT WOULD FAVOR THE ERN FCST AREA (GENERALLY E OF A                
MUNISING TO ESCANABA LINE) AND AN AREA OVER FAR WRN UPPER MICHIGAN              
(WRN GOGEBIC COUNTY AND MOST OF ONTONAGON COUNTY). 950MB WINDS OVER             
THE E WILL RUN 15-20KT THRU THE NIGHT...SO COMPLETE DECOUPLING SEEMS            
UNLIKELY. DON'T EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL MUCH UNDER 30 IF AT ALL OVER               
THE INTERIOR E. THE FAR W WILL HAVE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO DECOUPLE                
COMPLETELY WITH ARRIVAL OF RIDGE AXIS. WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS THERE IN             
THE MID 20S. TEMPS OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL VARY GREATLY             
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING AT EACH LOCATION AND HOW LONG THE               
CLEARING LASTS. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH TEMPS ONLY AS LOW AS AROUND              
30 OVER THE INTERIOR CNTRL...BUT CAN EASILY SEE TEMPS STAYING ABOVE             
FREEZING OR PLUMMETING WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S DEPENDING ON CLOUD                
COVER. SO...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS THAT             
CURRENTLY HAVE A FREEZE WATCH GIVEN THE EASY POTENTIAL TO FALL BLO              
FREEZING WHERE CLOUDS DO BREAK. BY THE WAY... TONIGHT IS THE LAST               
NIGHT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR THIS             
SEASON.                                                                         
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE SAT THRU MON. SHORTWAVE HEADING THRU             
SASKATCHEWAN NOW WILL LIFT NE WELL TO THE NW OF HERE TONIGHT/SAT AS             
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE             
WEATHER HERE THRU MON. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN WITH MON FCST AS                  
ENERGY OVER THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIGHT LIFT INTO THE LWR                  
GREAT LAKES IN LARGER SCALE SSW FLOW TO THE E OF DEEPENING WRN TROF.            
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE SE WITH                  
SYSTEM...SO DRY FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THRU MON. TEMPS WILL TREND                
UPWARD EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SKY CONDITION TRENDING TOWARD             
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR. SAT WILL HAVE THE MOST CLOUD COVER OF THE NEXT 3            
DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS             
MOS GUIDANCE SAT/SUN GIVEN GFS AGREEMENT WITH UKMET ON MODERATION OF            
LOW-LEVELS. SAT NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF            
CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL                
KEEP TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS GUIDANCE SAT NIGHT.                         
TUE THRU FRI...CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF/GFS STILL REMAIN IN REASONABLE              
AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE               
PROGRESSION OF CUTOFF ENERGY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK             
THAT LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK...AND IMPACT OF NRN                  
STREAM SHORTWAVE ON ITS HEALS. DRY FCST FOR TUE IS IN GOOD SHAPE                
WITH RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE UPPER LAKES. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT             
ON PROGRESSION OF SW SYSTEM...PLAN TO STAY WITH GOING LOW CHC POPS              
LATER WED/WED NIGHT AS THIS WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY                    
ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR WHILE TRACKING NE INTO THE AREA. THEN THERE IS               
MORE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE AND                
WHAT KIND OF INTERACTION MAY TAKE PLACE WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING THRU            
THE GREAT LAKES. UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW SHARPER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE             
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z THU THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH 12Z UKMET HAS                
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN HPC PREFERENCE...WILL LEAN TOWARD                
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL CARRY THE LOW CHC POPS FROM WED NIGHT INTO             
THU AS MID LEVEL TROF PASSES. GFS INDICATES MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY               
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION ON FRI...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED             
BY GFS REFORECAST ENSEMBLE. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS ON             
FRI AS WELL. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE                          
NORMAL...GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN             
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
       FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1140 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LK EFFECT PCPN MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS                                
LARGE SWATH OF STRATOCU FM N ONTARIO INTO LK SUPERIOR AND INTO NW/N             
WI. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS THROUGH AROUND 5K FT PER 11Z TAMDAR                   
SOUNDING FM CMX AND 00Z RAOB LAST EVENING AT KINL. TEMPS GRADUALLY              
WARM BY VERY LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER BUT UNTIL THEN              
TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION NEAR -6C GIVE A LAKE-H8 DELTA T VALUE                 
AROUND 20C. DESPITE UNIDIRECTIONAL NE FLOW WITHIN MIXED LAYER NOT               
CHANGING MUCH IN LAST FEW HOURS...NOT MUCH IN WAY OF INDIVIDUAL LK              
PCPN BANDS. STILL...IN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN               
MAXIMIZED (MARQUETTE TO MUNISING AND AROUND IRONWOOD IN FAR WEST)               
PCPN COVERAGE HAS BEEN ENHANCED. SUB 1000 FT AGL TEMPS AND LOCATION             
ELEVATION HAS BEEN CRITICAL FOR PTYPE THUS FAR. MOST OF THE PCPN                
NEAR MQT-P53 IS RAIN WITH TEMPS BTWN 39-41F WHILE OVR THE INTERIOR              
PORTIONS OF MQT COUNTY INTO THE FAR WEST ITS BEEN MOSTLY SNOW AS                
TEMPS HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING (33-36F). 2 INCH SOIL TEMP STILL 54F            
HERE AT NWS OFFICE IN NEGAUNEE TWP...AND THIS IS PROHIBITING ANY                
ACCUM ON THE GROUND THUS FAR. DID RECEIVE REPORT AROUND IRONWOOD OF             
AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATING ON VEHICLES...BUT IT WAS HAVING A HARD             
TIME STICKING ON THE GROUND.                                                    
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DELAYED THE ENDING OF LK PCPN            
OVR THE TWO CONVERGENCE AREAS AS LOWER LAYERS REMAIN QUITE MOIST                
THROUGH THE AFTN. SC HAS FILLED IN OVR MOST AREAS. PERSISTENT N FLOW            
MAY HELP DOWNSLOPE INTO FAR SCNTRL AREAS. AS PCPN/CLOUDS HANG ON                
THROUGH MUCH OF AFTN TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE SINCE FLOW IS OFF LK                   
SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY TRY TO BOUNCE UP LATE TODAY AS RUC/NAM            
INDICATE RISING TEMPS IN THE 925-900MB LEVELS LATE AS HEIGHTS BEGIN             
RISING.                                                                         
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS EXTENT OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM. LATEST            
NAM INDICATED THAT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY              
SKIES MAY PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF NIGHT.                         
OBVIOUSLY...THIS WOULD HAVE BIG IMPACT ON GOING MINS FORECASTED FM              
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH TEMPS LIKELY AOA FREEZING IF MORE CLOUDS              
STICK AROUND. WILL BE FOCUSING ON THIS IN AFTN PACKAGE...BUT MADE NO            
CHANGES TO FREEZE WATCH ATTM.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THIS MORNING)...                         
UPR RDG FCST TO BLD OVER THE GRT LKS TNGT...WITH H925 FLOW BCMG                 
INCRSGLY ACYC AND VEERING TO MORE E BY 12Z AS SFC HI CENTER PROGGED             
TO MOVE TOWARD JAMES BAY BY 12Z WED. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR MORE             
LK CLD OVER THE KEWEENAW/SRN MNM COUNTY WHILE DSPTG ELSEWHERE AS                
DRIER DOWNSLOPED AIR OVER THE E OFF ONTARIO ADVECTS TO THE W.                   
ALTHOUGH THE LK AGGREGATE APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE INCOMING                       
AIRMASS...WITH PWAT FCST TNGT ARND 0.40 INCH VS 0.30 INCH OR SO                 
UPSTREAM...SETUP TNGT LOOKS IDEAL FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL HEAT                    
LOSS/WDSPRD FROST OR FREEZE AWAY FM LK MODERATION NR THE SHORES AND             
OVER THE KEWEENAW/SRN MNM COUNTY. HAVE OPTED TO POST A FREEZE WATCH             
FOR INLAND AREAS IN ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT KEWEENAW (THE SRN PART OF               
NORTHERN CMX COUNTY AND NRN MNM COUNTY WL SEE LTL LK MODERATION).               
BEST CHC TO SEE TMINS BLO MOS GUIDANCE WL BE OVER THE FAR W WHERE               
WIND SPEEDS WL BE LIGHTEST. CONCERNED THE PRES GRADIENT MIGHT REMAIN            
TIGHT ENUF TO MITIGATE TEMP DROP OVER THE E...BUT DAY SHIFT WL HAVE             
THE OPTION TO LOOK MORE CLOSELY AND NOT POST A WRNG IF NOT WARRANTED.           
SAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT FALL DAY UNDER BLDG UPR RDG/SFC RDG             
AXIS. ANY LINGERING LK SC WL DSPT WITH DAYTIME HTG/LOWERING INVRN.              
MIXING TO INVRN BASE AT H9 ON FCST GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS TMAX               
NOT FAR FM 50. MOS/PRESENT FCST TEMPS COMPARE FVRBLY...SO LTL CHG               
NECESSARY. THE SHARPENING UPR RDG OVER THE UPR GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF            
A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES WL BRING A TRANQUIL PD FOR SAT                
NGT/SUN AS WELL. PREFER THE FLATTER PRES GRADIENT SHOWN BY THE 00Z              
GFS/UKMET/CNDN MODEL OVER THE SOMEWHAT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT                    
DEPICTED BY THE NAM. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS WL ONCE             
AGAIN ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NGT. WL HEDGE TOWARD              
LWR GFS MOS FCST TEMPS FOR SAT NGT TMINS. MIXING TO INVRN BASE ARND             
H9 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS FOR SUN SHOWS HI TEMPS IN THE 55 TO 60                 
RANGE...VERY CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND GOING FCST.                                   
SOME UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO FCST FOR MON AS SOME MODELS SHOW AN UPR            
LO DRIFTING N THRU THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE LWR GRT LKS IN LARGER             
SCALE SSW FLOW TO THE E OF DEEPENING WRN TROF. BUT EVEN THIS                    
GUIDANCE SUGS THE DEEPER MSTR WL STAY TO THE SE OF THE FA...SO LTL              
CHC FOR PCPN. NO CHGS MADE TO FCST BEYOND SUN.                                  
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WATCH LATE TNGT/EARLY SAT           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLA                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION..KC                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
515 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR                     
SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.               
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING A VERY DRY LAYER EXISTS              
FROM ROUGHLY 900MB TO 750MB.  RUC AND NAM POINT SOUNDINGS DON'T                 
MOISTEN THIS LAYER UP MUCH THIS MORNING.  WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL              
KEEP GRIDS DRY FOR TODAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAY ADD SOME                  
SPRINKLES TO THE GRIDS SOUTHWEST OF SGF THIS MORNING.  SKIES SHOULD             
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON.  TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN              
THE GRIDS FOR TODAY WITH READINGS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER            
50S TO NEAR 60 WHICH TRENDS CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE.                         
NEXT CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL                
BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EDGES                
TOWARD EASTERN KANSAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.  GENERALLY GOING WITH MIDDLE             
30S ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED PATCHY FROST WORDING              
IN THE ZONES.  MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES BUT MODELS ARE            
HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST                
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR WEST                 
THESE CLOUDS WILL BE...ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TRENDS...DECIDED             
TO LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A POSSIBLE FROST ADVISORY            
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                                                         
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS               
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.  WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION                  
FINALLY KICKING BACK IN ON SUNDAY...LOWER 70S WILL RETURN TO EASTERN            
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI.  AS FOR FROST POTENTIAL EARLY                  
SUNDAY MORNING...RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF             
THE FORECAST AREA. AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS MAY BE OVER THIS AREA                  
THOUGH...SO FOR NOW DO NOT HAVE ANY FROST IN THE FORECAST WHICH                 
MESHES WELL WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.                                              
DIDN'T CHANGE MUCH WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HELD ON TO               
LOW POPS OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT              
AS A SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...DURING THIS PERIOD THE                
BETTER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LATER            
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ON WEDNESDAY IF THE LATEST GFS                 
VERIFIES...AS ITS SOLUTION BRING A SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH               
THROUGH THE REGION.                                                             
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SKY REMAINS OVERCAST BUT FAIRLY HIGH CEILINGS AT             
AROUND 9000 FEET AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE.  ECHOES SHOWING UP ON               
KSGF RADAR BUT MUCH OF THIS NOT REACHING THE GROUND OR FALLING AS               
SPRINKLES.  HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF 12Z            
TAFS.  AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...SKY SHOULD              
CLEAR FROM THE WEST.  WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS             
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SURFACE.                                        
LINDENBERG                                                                      
&&                                                                              
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
305 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY)                                           
COMPLEX HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDING WITH SFC COLD FRONT JUST INSIDE              
OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. UL JET POISED TO OUR NORTH...AND LLVL JET OF            
30-40 KTS SURGING DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS CNTRL PA AHEAD            
OF ENHANCED UL WAVE. RIGHT NOW...NAM/GFS AND RUC ARE IN DECENT                  
AGREEMENT ON SLIGHT SEWD MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL BNDRY TONIGHT WITH WAVE            
AND LLJ LIFTING OUT TO OUR NE. SLUG OF MDT TO HVY RAIN WILL TARGET              
OUR ZONES WEST OF I-81 WITH ABOUT 2" OF RAIN TONIGHT...WITH BULK OF             
THAT FALLING NOW THRU MIDNIGHT. REST OF AREA STILL STANDS TO PICK UP            
1-2".                                                                           
DISCREPANCIES IN MDL SOLUTIONS START TO SHOW UP SATURDAY...AND                  
PARTICULARLY INTO SAT NITE WITH GFS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING FRONT TO               
OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...WHILE NAM IS HOLDING BACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER             
WEST. CURRENTLY...WE FEEL THE NAM IS VERIFYING THE SYNOPTIC SETUP               
BEST THRU 18Z...AND OUR FCSTS WILL LEAN MORE WITH IT/S SCENARIO. A              
SSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SLOPED                   
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH RAIN THRU SAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT DOES                 
APPEAR THAT THE FOCUS FOR ANY KIND OF HEAVIER PCPN WILL SHIFT                   
SLIGHTLY TO OUR ZONES ALONG...SOUTH AND EAST OF I-81 AND I-88 WHERE             
BEST LLVL CONVG SETS UP. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY              
THESE AREAS. WEST ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BEHIND THE               
FRONT...STEADY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DWINDLE TO OCNL SHOWERS...AND              
UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN THRU THE DAY.                                        
TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY WITH GOOD GRADIENT ACROSS COLD FRONT. LOWS             
DIPPING TO THE UPR 40S-LOW 50S XTRM N-W PART OF AREA WITH LOW-MID               
60S POCONOS-WY/LACK VALLEYS OF NEPA TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL               
REBOUND SATURDAY. -JAB                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT NGT - SATURDAY)...                                              
STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SAT TO SUN PERIOD WITH GFS ALONE IN              
PUSHING COLD FRONT TO COAST. OTHER MODELS HAVE ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP            
THE COAST SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT KEEPING THE SOUTH TO NORTH FRONT OVER            
CWA. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS MAJOR REPERCUSSIONS IN ALL THE GRIDS. WE               
ARE GOING WITH THE CONSENSUS AND THE NAM. THIS MEANS THE START OF               
THE EXTENDED WILL BE WETTER AND WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND GRIDS.            
500 MB HEIGHTS SIMILAR WITH DIGGING WRN US TROF AND ERN US RIDGE.               
SHORT WAVE MOVES NE INTO OHIO VALLEY SUN NGT.                                   
NAM MOS HAS CATEGORICAL POPS SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT. WILL TAPER POPS              
OFF FROM CAT SAT NGT TO CHC SUN NGT. ALSO POPS TAPERED FROM LOW IN              
NW TO HIGH IN SE. PRECIP AMOUNTS ALSO TAPERED FROM LIGHT IN NW TO               
HEAVY IN SE. QPF LIGHTER THAN THE AMOUNTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                 
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FROM TUESDAY ON STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT MOVING MUCH TO THE SE. SLOW MOVING WAVES                   
CONTINUE ALONG FRONT. QUESTION ALSO HOW MUCH UL TROF IN WEST LIFTS              
AND FILLS AS IT MOVES E. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON UL HEIGHTS                   
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK TROF COULD BRING SOME               
SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP IT DRY FROM WEDNESDAY ON WITH            
FRONT TO COAST WED. FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE GONE WITH HPC GRIDS. -TAC              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (07/18Z - 08/18Z)...                                                  
FOR THE MOST PART...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IFR                 
CIG/VSBY THRU THE PERIOD WITH MDT TO HVY RAIN WITH OCNL FLUXES                  
BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR PSBL. WINDS GRDLY VEERING FROM E-SE TO                    
N-NW BY 13Z ACROSS THE AREA. LLVL WIND SHEAR PSBLY DVLPG...ESPLY AT             
AVP...THIS EVENING AS CORE OF 2000-4000 FT 30-40 KT WINDS MOVE OVER             
THE AREA. -JAB                                                                  
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
BASED ON THE PRESUMPTION THAT NAM RAIN FCSTS APPEAR MORE CORRECT                
THAN GFS...STORM RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS EXPECTED TO               
RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES ACROSS ALL BASINS. LOCAL SMALL STREAM AND                 
URBANIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MAIN             
STEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO ONLY SEE WITHIN BANK RISES. WITH ADDL HVY               
RAIN PSBL SAT NITE...HAVE EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH TO NOON SUNDAY. -JAB             
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...FLOOD WATCH...ALL COUNTIES...EXTENDED TONIGHT THRU NOON SUNDAY.           
.PA...FLOOD WATCH...ALL COUNTIES...EXTENDED TONIGHT THRU NOON SUNDAY.           
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
940 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT/FLOOD POTENTIAL)...                                      
NO ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THERE HAS BEEN A WELCOME                
RELATIVE LULL IN THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW                 
HOURS. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH THAT ONE MORE ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS IN            
STORE FOR THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LOW TO MID LEVEL             
JET IS ROUNDING THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE.                 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING CONVECTION TO             
BLOSSOM EAST OF FLORIDA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IT WILL BE HEADED               
RIGHT FOR THE CAPE FEAR REGION. GFS HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH              
THE MOISTURE AND TAKEN LITERALLY IT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE VERY BEST            
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS            
THE NC COASTAL COUNTIES MORESO THAN THE SC COUNTIES. FLOOD WATCH                
WILL STAY AS IS THOUGH SINCE THE GROUND IS SO SATURATED THAT EVEN A             
LITTLE RAINFALL INLAND COULD LEAD TO MORE FLOODING ISSUES. LOW LEVEL            
FLOW SHOULD BE BACKED ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO CHANNEL THE DEEP                   
MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY THE FLOOD WATCH            
WILL NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND ITS EXPIRATION TIME (ONCE                   
AGAIN...MAYBE IN THE NC COASTAL COUNTIES).                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HAVE LARGELY CARRIED ON TRENDS FROM TODAY IN AT LEAST THE COASTAL               
TERMINALS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE IN A DEEP AND JUICY             
SSE FEED. TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL POCKETS OF                       
PRECIP...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...SO I            
WENT WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO GO BETWEEN MVFR/VFR CIGS IN THE                       
BREAKS...TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIG AND VIS IN THE PRECIP.  SERIOUS             
DIPS INTO IFR WILL BE TOO BRIEF TO EVEN WARRANT A TEMPO.  WILL                  
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAFS...WITH KFLO EVEN            
IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE               
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROLL NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS               
THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OUTSIDE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY 15-20               
KT...BUT DOWNDRAFTS IN THE CONVECTION ARE LIKELY PRODUCING GUSTS                
UPWARD OF 30 KNOTS AT TIMES...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.                   
THE NAM AND RUC MODELS BOTH INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET ORGANIZING                 
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR AROUND                    
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH ALONG ONSLOW BAY EARLY             
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE             
ACTIVITY IN THIS JET...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE                
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 35 KNOTS               
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS LATER TONIGHT. IT IS                  
DEFINITELY NOT A NIGHT TO PLAN AN EXCURSION OFFSHORE.                           
BUOY 41013 MAY HAVE SUSTAINED DAMAGE TO ITS WAVE SENSOR AS IT HAS               
ONLY REPORTED SEA HEIGHT ONE HOUR OUT OF THE PAST 24. LATEST                    
WAVEWATCH FORECASTS AND DATA FROM BUOY 41004 (EAST OF CHS) INDICATE             
LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED TO OUR SEAS FORECAST TONIGHT...6 TO 9 FEET              
OFF SC AND 8 TO 11 FEET OFF NC - HIGHEST IN THE VICINITY OF FRYING              
PAN SHOALS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ087-096-097-099>101 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.                
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046 UNTIL 6 AM                  
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ250-252 UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY.                 
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ254-256 UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MBB                                                                
AVIATION...RAS                                                                  
MARINE...TRA                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1012 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...                                                      
SCT -SHRA DIMINISHING ACRS EASTERN 1/3 FCST AREA...AND EXPECT THIS              
TREND TO CONTINUE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS IS              
WEAKENING AND UPR JET OVER NRN OHIO IS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST                  
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICK SC DECK WILL HOLD ACRS MOST OF FCST                 
AREA THRU NIGHT. BACK EDGE OF SC HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY                 
OVER SE INDIANA SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON                
SAT SHWNG SC DECK STARTING TO SHIFT BACK WEST JUST A BIT. BNDRY                 
LYR FLO WILL REMAIN FROM NE OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT THIS TREND TO                 
CONTINUE. WILL KEEP PCPN IN FCST THRU 04-06Z ACRS EASTERN FCST                  
AREA...THEN DRY BEYOND. TEMPS ALSO NOT DROPPING AS FAST AS PREV                 
THOUGHT...SO BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEG ENTIRE FCST AREA.                    
UPDATE OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                           
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 726 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005)                                              
AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                           
SCT -SHRA CONTINUE ALONG MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE...AFFECTING                   
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-71. CIGS/VSBYS HAVE BEEN LOWER WITHIN                 
-SHRA/DZ. CURRENT RUC INDCG DEFORMATION WILL WEAKEN OVER NEXT FEW               
HOURS...AND LIKEWISE SHOULD SEE -SHRA DIMINISH AT EASTERN TAF                   
SITES BY 04Z. REMAINDER OF NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE DRY (OTHER THAN                 
SOME PATCHY DZ)...EVEN AS STRONG S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST. LARGE SC                
DECK REMAINS ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA WITH CLEAR SLOT JUST TO WEST                
OF KCVG/KDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH EROSION AT ALL TO SC DECK                      
OVERNIGHT AS BNDRY LYR FLO REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NE. RECENT          
SAT IMAGES INDCG SC HAS BUILT BACK TO WEST A LITTLE BIT...WITH SC               
ASSOCD WITH S/WV MOVING ACRS ILLINOIS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET CIGS               
INTO VFR CAT AT KDAY FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT..AND POSSIBLY EVEN AT               
KCVG/KLUK. FURTHER EAST...MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT. SC              
DECK WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ON SAT...BEING DELAYED UNTIL PASSAGE OF              
S/WV. DO NOT EXPECT A RISE TO VFR CIGS UNTIL LAST SIX HOURS OF                  
FCST PERIOD. OTHER THAN VSBY RESTRICTION ASSOCD WITH -SHRA THIS                 
EVNG...WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10KTS SHOULD RESTRICT ANY FOG DVPMNT                
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
RYAN                                                                            
(ISSUED 418 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                    
PCPN ALONG I-71 CORRIDOR FROM ILN-CMH APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH A                 
DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS LIFT WORKS SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND              
EXPECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HIGHEST                
POPS WILL BE IN CENTRAL OH...WHERE PCPN WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.                
WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE A LITTLE CLEARING TONIGHT...SO                       
MENTIONED PARTLY CLOUDY LATER,                                                  
H5 S/W SWINGS ACROSS THE FA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SPRINKLE AT ANY LOCATION.                   
CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY.               
H5 VORT FROM SAT REMAINS ACROSS THE FA AS IT IS CAUGHT BETWEEN                  
SYSTEMS. COULDN'T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE HERE OR THERE AGAIN ON                    
SUNDAY.                                                                         
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING PCPN INTO                    
SOUTHERN PART OF FA. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS MORE                      
DISORGANIZED AND JUST GIVES SCATTERED SHOWERS.                                  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.                  
SITES                                                                           
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
WITH UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ADDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY.             
KEPT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST.                   
INTRODUCED CHANCE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH                   
ARRIVAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH.                                     
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH NOT            
QUITE AS WARM AS THE OPTIMISTIC MEX GUIDANCE.                                   
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
726 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                          
SCT -SHRA CONTINUE ALONG MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE...AFFECTING                   
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-71. CIGS/VSBYS HAVE BEEN LOWER WITHIN                 
-SHRA/DZ. CURRENT RUC INDCG DEFORMATION WILL WEAKEN OVER NEXT FEW               
HOURS...AND LIKEWISE SHOULD SEE -SHRA DIMINISH AT EASTERN TAF                   
SITES BY 04Z. REMAINDER OF NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE DRY (OTHER THAN                 
SOME PATCHY DZ)...EVEN AS STRONG S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST. LARGE SC                
DECK REMAINS ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA WITH CLEAR SLOT JUST TO WEST                
OF KCVG/KDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH EROSION AT ALL TO SC DECK                      
OVERNIGHT AS BNDRY LYR FLO REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NE. RECENT          
SAT IMAGES INDCG SC HAS BUILT BACK TO WEST A LITTLE BIT...WITH SC               
ASSOCD WITH S/WV MOVING ACRS ILLINOIS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET CIGS               
INTO VFR CAT AT KDAY FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT..AND POSSIBLY EVEN AT               
KCVG/KLUK. FURTHER EAST...MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT. SC              
DECK WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ON SAT...BEING DELAYED UNTIL PASSAGE OF              
S/WV. DO NOT EXPECT A RISE TO VFR CIGS UNTIL LAST SIX HOURS OF                  
FCST PERIOD. OTHER THAN VSBY RESTRICTION ASSOCD WITH -SHRA THIS                 
EVNG...WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10KTS SHOULD RESTRICT ANY FOG DVPMNT                
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 418 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                    
PCPN ALONG I-71 CORRIDOR FROM ILN-CMH APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH A                 
DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS LIFT WORKS SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND              
EXPECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HIGHEST                
POPS WILL BE IN CENTRAL OH...WHERE PCPN WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.                
WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE A LITTLE CLEARING TONIGHT...SO                       
MENTIONED PARTLY CLOUDY LATER,                                                  
H5 S/W SWINGS ACROSS THE FA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SPRINKLE AT ANY LOCATION.                   
CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY.               
H5 VORT FROM SAT REMAINS ACROSS THE FA AS IT IS CAUGHT BETWEEN                  
SYSTEMS. COULDN'T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE HERE OR THERE AGAIN ON                    
SUNDAY.                                                                         
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING PCPN INTO                    
SOUTHERN PART OF FA. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS MORE                      
DISORGANIZED AND JUST GIVES SCATTERED SHOWERS.                                  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.                  
SITES                                                                           
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
WITH UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ADDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY.             
KEPT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST.                   
INTRODUCED CHANCE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH                   
ARRIVAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH.                                     
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH NOT            
QUITE AS WARM AS THE OPTIMISTIC MEX GUIDANCE.                                   
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
705 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.UPDATED PRODUCTS TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH.                                      
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                                 
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY /...                                        
COPIUS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWWARD ACROSS SE GA            
AND SE SC. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO SC AND WILL                  
INTERACT WITH AN OLD BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES.                
SATELLITE STARTING TO SHOW A MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.                    
AREA BECOMING A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE BASED ON LATEST RUC STABILITY              
PARAMETERS. CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT                 
SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL WE LOSE THE AFTN HEATING. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS             
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MY SC COUNTIES AND SCREVEN... EFFINGHAM...                 
CHATHAM AND BRYAN COUNTIES.                                                     
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE                 
AREA. IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS...MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 8              
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH A FEW PLACES MORE THAN 12 INCHES. IT WILL NOT             
TAKE MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD             
WATCH THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY             
APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO NEXT                 
WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE            
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP            
IT. EXPECT THE BEST CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST DURING THE                
PERIOD...THUS HAVE TAPERED CHANCE POPS FROM EAST TO WEST BASED ON               
THIS IDEA. HAVE BROUGHT MAX AND MIN TEMPS UP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH               
THE PERIOD DUE TO A MUCH SLOWER FROPA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...YET ANOTHER CRUNCHY TAF FCST TODAY. A SMALL SFC LOW IS              
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTH THROUGH ERN GA AND SRN SC. THIS FEATURE IS                
ENHANCING BANDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO                    
WRAPPING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE ERN FRINGE OF GA. WILL PROBABLY                
HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE                   
EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. CIGS WILL                
PROBABLY GO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING                
BEFORE ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW. HAVE TRIED TO             
TIME THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITHOUT GETTING TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPOS.            
EXPECT SOME LOW VSBYS AND CIGS SAT MORNING BUT WITH THE PRECIP                  
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SEAS ARE SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO FAIRLY WEAK             
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. SOME SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT                 
OUR NRN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL AS GA WATERS 20-60NM WHERE               
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN HIGHER. WILL TAKE DOWN THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS                
SEAS AMZ354 SINCE BUOY 41008 REALLY HAS NOT SHOWN SEAS HIGHER THAN              
5.5 FT FOR A FEW HRS. WILL LEAVE OTHER FLAGS UNCHANGED. WIND                    
DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY STARTING SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT                     
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT OVER THE WATERS              
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT HOWEVER.                           
&&                                                                              
.RIP CURRENTS...PLAN ON A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BOTH SC AND GA               
BEACHES ON SATURDAY. ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL IS DECREASING BY THE HOUR            
AND THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE 10-15 MPH SLIGHTLY ONSHORE. DO NOT SEE               
ANY FACTORS THAT WOULD REQUIRE A MODERATE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FLOOD WATCH GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.                            
SC...FLOOD WATCH SCZ040-042>045-047>051.                                        
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AMZ350-352-354-374.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
30/50                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
230 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY /...                                        
COPIUS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWWARD ACROSS SE GA            
AND SE SC. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO SC AND WILL                  
INTERACT WITH AN OLD BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES.                
SATELLITE STARTING TO SHOW A MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.                    
AREA BECOMING A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE BASED ON LATEST RUC STABILITY              
PARAMETERS. CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT                 
SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL WE LOSE THE AFTN HEATING. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS             
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MY SC COUNTIES AND SCREVEN... EFFINGHAM...                 
CHATHAM AND BRYAN COUNTIES.                                                     
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE                 
AREA. IN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS...MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 8              
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH A FEW PLACES MORE THAN 12 INCHES. IT WILL NOT             
TAKE MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD             
WATCH THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY             
APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO NEXT                 
WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE            
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP            
IT. EXPECT THE BEST CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST DURING THE                
PERIOD...THUS HAVE TAPERED CHANCE POPS FROM EAST TO WEST BASED ON               
THIS IDEA. HAVE BROUGHT MAX AND MIN TEMPS UP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH               
THE PERIOD DUE TO A MUCH SLOWER FROPA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...YET ANOTHER CRUNCHY TAF FCST TODAY. A SMALL SFC LOW IS              
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTH THROUGH ERN GA AND SRN SC. THIS FEATURE IS                
ENHANCING BANDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO                    
WRAPPING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE ERN FRINGE OF GA. WILL PROBABLY                
HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE                   
EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. CIGS WILL                
PROBABLY GO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING                
BEFORE ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW. HAVE TRIED TO             
TIME THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITHOUT GETTING TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPOS.            
EXPECT SOME LOW VSBYS AND CIGS SAT MORNING BUT WITH THE PRECIP                  
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SEAS ARE SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO FAIRLY WEAK             
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. SOME SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT                 
OUR NRN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL AS GA WATERS 20-60NM WHERE               
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN HIGHER. WILL TAKE DOWN THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS                
SEAS AMZ354 SINCE BUOY 41008 REALLY HAS NOT SHOWN SEAS HIGHER THAN              
5.5 FT FOR A FEW HRS. WILL LEAVE OTHER FLAGS UNCHANGED. WIND                    
DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY STARTING SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT                     
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT OVER THE WATERS              
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT HOWEVER.                           
&&                                                                              
.RIP CURRENTS...PLAN ON A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BOTH SC AND GA               
BEACHES ON SATURDAY. ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL IS DECREASING BY THE HOUR            
AND THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE 10-15 MPH SLIGHTLY ONSHORE. DO NOT SEE               
ANY FACTORS THAT WOULD REQUIRE A MODERATE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FLOOD WATCH GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.                            
     TORNADO WATCH GAC029-051-103-251.                                          
SC...FLOOD WATCH SCZ040-042>045-047>051.                                        
     TORNADO WATCH SCC005-013-015-019-029-035-049-053                           
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AMZ350-352-354-374.            
     TORNADO WATCH AMZ330-350-352-354                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
30/50                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
220 PM PDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CARVE A TROUGH                
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.                    
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE                   
WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DRYING TREND. ANOTHER WEAK                  
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY INTO                    
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE                
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO              
THE REGION. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE BACK               
OF THE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH IN A 120+ KT NORTHERLY JET. THIS                 
SCENARIO WAS INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER BY THE 12Z GFS THAN THE                
12Z NAM AND FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOLLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION.              
THE GFS IS INDICATING A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A            
WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM AND A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM RIDING THE           
JET MOVING INTO OREGON. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION              
OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN MONTANA AND IDAHO BY SATURDAY                
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON             
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM KNOCKING ON THE DOOR BY              
MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
TONIGHT...KOTX 88D INDICATING SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE            
SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE AND ARE NOW DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE                  
NORTHEAST ZONES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXCESSIVE BUT THE               
17Z RUC IS NOW SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 200J/KG                 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS                  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE ZONES THROUGH SUNSET. MEANWHILE A                
SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND COMBINED               
WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE                   
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS               
NEAR 5000 FEET WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGH                  
ELEVATION SNOW. EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT             
AND COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUT IN PATCHY               
FOG TO THE USUAL NORTHEAST VALLEY LOCATIONS.                                    
SATURDAY...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE HAVE KEPT OROGRAPHIC                         
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IDAHO PANAHNDLE AND THE CAMAS                 
PRAIRIE FOR SATURDAY. ALSO KEPT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE                   
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES AND SLOP OVER                     
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST. OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF               
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE DRYING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL                 
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD            
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY.              
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS IDAHO              
ZONE 4 IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...OTHERWISE CLEARING CONDITIONS ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AREAS OF FOG CAN BE                
EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.                
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY BUT REMAIN              
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT                 
UPSTREAM SYSTEM. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                    
CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR ZONE 42                        
ACCORDINGLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH            
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.               
/TOBIN                                                                          
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE              
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE INLAND                   
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR A SHOT OF               
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN                    
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DRYING CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE                  
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY ONWARD A BROAD              
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA PUTTING EASTERN WA AND NORTH              
ID IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE GETS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER                
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME                   
NORTHERN WA AND NORTH ID THROUGH FRIDAY.    /KOCH                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        38  57  35  59  36  64 /  10  10  10   0   0   0                 
COEUR D'ALENE  35  56  35  58  35  62 /  10  30  10   0   0   0                 
PULLMAN        36  57  36  60  37  64 /  20  40  10   0   0   0                 
LEWISTON       40  60  39  63  40  69 /  20  40  20   0   0   0                 
COLVILLE       33  55  34  59  35  64 /  20  10  10   0   0   0                 
SANDPOINT      34  53  33  55  33  62 /  20  20  10   0   0   0                 
KELLOGG        35  52  36  57  37  62 /  20  50  10   0   0   0                 
MOSES LAKE     38  61  37  64  38  68 /  10  10  10   0   0   0                 
WENATCHEE      40  63  40  65  41  67 /  10  10  10   0   0   0                 
OMAK           37  61  35  63  36  68 /  10  10  10   0   0  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
915 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SCT LAKE-EFFECT PCPN EXPECTED TO CONT TNGT. BOTH THE NAM          
AND RUC SHOWED CONVERGENCE BAND DEVELOPING NR THE WRN SHORE OF THE LAKE         
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN MOVING INLAND. THAT FIT WELL WITH THE TREND ON STLT        
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWED CLDS INCRG OVER THE LAKE. WOULD EXPECT CLDS AND SCT        
PCPN TO CONT OVER E-C WI OVERNIGHT.                                             
ACRS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...IT NOW APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WL NOT              
DISSIPATE AS CLEANLY AS PREV EXPECTED. THE AIR IS STILL COOL ENOUGH TO          
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MINS IN THE GOING FCST AS LONG AS THERE WL BE          
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES. THAT WL PROBABLY HAPPEN IN MOST AREAS.          
ALREADY UPDATED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO ADD THE LAKE-EFFECT IN E-C WI.        
WL UPDATE FCST PKG AGAIN TO INCR POPS FURTHER NR THE LAKE. UPDATED FCST         
SUITE WL BE OUT ASAP.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY                         
WIZ013-020-021-030-031-035>037-045-                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SKOWRONSKI                                                                      
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
345 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SURFACE RIDGE               
WEST OF THE STATE...WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL OF CENT AND SE             
IL. THE 3.9IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A STRATOCU DECK PERSISTENT ALONG            
AND WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING DOWN LAKE            
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DANVILLE.             
THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WITH SKY COVER AND                 
TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MET AND MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS            
NOT HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER WELL AT ALL...ALTHOUGH THE NAM                     
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS OFFER BETTER CLUES. THE NEXT            
ISSUE WILL BE MID-WEEK WITH THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER                  
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
WILL START OUT THE DAY MOSTLY CLOUDY IN WEST CENTRAL IL BASED ON                
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE 00Z NAM AND 06Z RUC 800-900 MB RH                 
FIELD WERE FAIRLY CLOSE IN DEPICTING THIS CLOUD COVER...AND INDICATE            
IT SHOULD STAY INTACT MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING.            
THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SE IL WILL START OUT THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY...            
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN                     
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF ECENT IL FROM CMI-DNV WHERE LAKE EFFECT                 
CLOUDS WILL MEANDER IN AND OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AFFECT ON                
TEMPS WILL BE TO HAVE VALUES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN                   
YESTERDAY IN THE 57 TO 62 RANGE. THE NEXT CLOUD COVER PROBLEM IS                
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN             
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. REMANANTS OF AN UPPER LOW                
LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NRN TX ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO AID IN             
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA. LOWS WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY               
ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                        
A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY            
AND TUESDAY...BUT THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE QUITE A BIT...GIVING              
US HIGHS NEAR 70 AND LOWS NEAR 50 WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.                     
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                         
BY MIDWEEK...THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT A CLOSED LOW FROM THE DESERT            
SOUTHWEST WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF AND               
UKMET ARE SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT AS QUICK AS THE GFS.              
NONE OF THE MODELS USUALLY DO A VERY GOOD JOB WITH CLOSED LOWS IN               
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....AND THEY ALMOST ALWAYS BRING THEM OUT TOO               
QUICKLY. THE LATEST GFSLR IS EVEN HINTING THAT THE PRECIP MAY HOLD              
OFF IN CENT/SE IL UNTIL LATER WED OR EVEN ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THE               
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED WILL LEAVE THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE            
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...AND AVOID POSSIBLE FORECAST FLIP-FLOPS BY              
TAKING IT OUT AND PUSHING IT BACK TO THURSDAY. REGARDLESS...NO BIG              
PLUNGE OF COLD AIR OR RETURN TO ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS IS                   
ANTICIPATED LATE NEXT WEEK...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH                    
SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
619 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF SUNSHINE TODAY              
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AROUND                 
MONROE COUNTY HAVE COMPLETELY FILLED IN. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF               
THE INVERSION... THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTH                   
AMERICA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE            
WEST COAST CARVES OUT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US BY SUN                    
MORNING. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO EASTERN OHIO TONIGHT...ALLOWING A             
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW            
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE WATER             
VAPOR SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE MID            
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST US. THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE                      
SOUTHEASTERN WAVE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH                   
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY... STRATUS               
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.                   
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 5K FEET.              
STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON HAS ALLOWED QUITE A BIT            
OF MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION... RESULTING            
IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW             
WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY. OF THE             
00Z MODEL SUITE...THE RUC WAS THE ONLY SOLUTION TO HAVE A REASONABLE            
HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE INVERSION. THE RUC HOWEVER              
SEEMS TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS TOO QUICKLY. GIVEN THERE WILL BE                
SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 850MB TODAY AND PERSISTENT                    
NORTHEAST FLOW AND INSTABILITY OFF LAKE HURON... THINK THESE CLOUDS             
ARE GOING TO TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME               
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MONROE COUNTY. WITH THE ONSET             
OF DAYTIME HEATING... THIS MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE                
ACROSS THE SOUTH. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADD SOME                   
DOWNSLOPE INTO WAYNE COUNTY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CLOUDS                
BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST                
AREA... WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL THUS                
SIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS...KEEPING MOST LOCALS IN              
THE 50S.                                                                        
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD             
FOCUS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NORTH OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN ACROSS LAKE            
HURON. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 925MB COUPLED WITH THE MID LEVEL            
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WEAKEN THE INVERSION TONIGHT. MUCH DRYER LOW LEVEL            
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK               
ITS WAY INTO SE MICHIGAN. SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CLEARING               
TREND TONIGHT. DESPITE THE CLEARING... ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT SHOULD              
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO NEAR              
FREEZING. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THUS LOOK                
REASONABLE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER                 
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY            
AIRMASS AND IS ESSENTIALLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT. THIS SHOULD                  
CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE ALONG THE             
EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                     
THE UPPER LOW WILL HEAD INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY                        
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST AS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER             
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE KEY TO THE FORECAST IS                 
DETERMINING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST...AS 500             
MB LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS                     
(GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/NOGAPS) FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK INTO THE            
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS IS IS PRETTY MUCH                
WHAT YESTERDAY'S WRFXX RUN HAD. ALTHOUGH...TONIGHT'S WRFXX RUN                  
STALLS THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY            
FATHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT 00Z NAM FORECASTED POSITION OVER                   
CHICAGO. WITH THE EASTERN TRACK FAVORED...TOUGH CALL WHETHER OR NOT             
PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP BACK THIS FAR WEST (ESPECIALLY WITH MODELS              
TRENDING FATHER EAST). NONE-THE-LESS...STILL WORTHY OF LOW CHANCE               
POPS CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA (MONDAY THROUGH             
TUESDAY)...PER CURRENT FORECAST. JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO                 
TEMPERATURES TO LOWER THE DIURNAL RANGE BASED ON THE CONSIDERABLE               
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.                                                           
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY                          
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE                  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON                
WEDNESDAY (PER EUROPEAN/GFS/CANADIAN). OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT A                
DONE DEAL JUST YET....AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY              
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM...WITH MUCH            
OF THE ENERGY LINGERING BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...BUT IT DOES                
LOOK LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...AS MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO            
INCREASE IN EARNEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN             
THE 2500-3500 FOOT AREA...SCATTERING OUT GRADUALLY IN THE 09Z TO 13Z            
TIMEFRAME. BY AND LARGE...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON             
SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL HOLD                
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO PUSH 20 KNOTS AGAIN MIDDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT                  
AUSTIN      TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.              
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.                     
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE                                                          
LONG TERM...SF                                                                  
AVIATION...DG                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
339 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTH                   
AMERICA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE            
WEST COAST CARVES OUT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US BY SUN                    
MORNING. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO EASTERN OHIO TONIGHT...ALLOWING A             
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW            
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE WATER             
VAPOR SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE MID            
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST US. THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE                      
SOUTHEASTERN WAVE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH                   
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY... STRATUS               
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.                   
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 5K FEET.              
STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON HAS ALLOWED QUITE A BIT            
OF MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION... RESULTING            
IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW             
WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY. OF THE             
00Z MODEL SUITE...THE RUC WAS THE ONLY SOLUTION TO HAVE A REASONABLE            
HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE INVERSION. THE RUC HOWEVER              
SEEMS TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS TOO QUICKLY. GIVEN THERE WILL BE                
SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 850MB TODAY AND PERSISTENT                    
NORTHEAST FLOW AND INSTABILITY OFF LAKE HURON... THINK THESE CLOUDS             
ARE GOING TO TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME               
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MONROE COUNTY. WITH THE ONSET             
OF DAYTIME HEATING... THIS MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE                
ACROSS THE SOUTH. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADD SOME                   
DOWNSLOPE INTO WAYNE COUNTY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CLOUDS                
BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST                
AREA... WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL THUS                
SIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS...KEEPING MOST LOCALS IN              
THE 50S.                                                                        
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD             
FOCUS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NORTH OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN ACROSS LAKE            
HURON. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 925MB COUPLED WITH THE MID LEVEL            
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WEAKEN THE INVERSION TONIGHT. MUCH DRYER LOW LEVEL            
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK               
ITS WAY INTO SE MICHIGAN. SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CLEARING               
TREND TONIGHT. DESPITE THE CLEARING... ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT SHOULD              
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO NEAR              
FREEZING. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THUS LOOK                
REASONABLE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER                 
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY            
AIRMASS AND IS ESSENTIALLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT. THIS SHOULD                  
CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE ALONG THE             
EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                     
THE UPPER LOW WILL HEAD INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY                        
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST AS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER             
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE KEY TO THE FORECAST IS                 
DETERMINING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST...AS 500             
MB LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS                     
(GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/NOGAPS) FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK INTO THE            
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS IS IS PRETTY MUCH                
WHAT YESTERDAY'S WRFXX RUN HAD. ALTHOUGH...TONIGHT'S WRFXX RUN                  
STALLS THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY            
FATHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT 00Z NAM FORECASTED POSITION OVER                   
CHICAGO. WITH THE EASTERN TRACK FAVORED...TOUGH CALL WHETHER OR NOT             
PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP BACK THIS FAR WEST (ESPECIALLY WITH MODELS              
TRENDING FATHER EAST). NONE-THE-LESS...STILL WORTHY OF LOW CHANCE               
POPS CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA (MONDAY THROUGH             
TUESDAY)...PER CURRENT FORECAST. JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO                 
TEMPERATURES TO LOWER THE DIURNAL RANGE BASED ON THE CONSIDERABLE               
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.                                                           
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY                          
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE                  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON                
WEDNESDAY (PER EUROPEAN/GFS/CANADIAN). OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT A                
DONE DEAL JUST YET....AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY              
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM...WITH MUCH            
OF THE ENERGY LINGERING BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...BUT IT DOES                
LOOK LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...AS MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO            
INCREASE IN EARNEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN             
THE 2500-3500 FOOT AREA...SCATTERING OUT GRADUALLY IN THE 09Z TO 13Z            
TIMEFRAME. BY AND LARGE...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON             
SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL HOLD                
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO PUSH 20 KNOTS AGAIN MIDDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN           
     TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.                     
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.                     
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE                                                          
LONG TERM...SF                                                                  
AVIATION...DG                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
235 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW ALF                  
STRETCHING FM THE PAC NW INTO SE CAN. SHRTWV RDG PRESENT FM THE UPR             
MS VALLEY INTO ONTARIO...AND 1030MB SFC HI PRES NOTED JUST W OF                 
JAMES BAY. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SFC HI AND VERY DRY AIR ALF SHOWN ON             
THE LOCAL RAOBS...QUITE A BIT OF SC LINGERING IN MOIST MIXED LYR                
UNDER SHARP INVRNS AT 00Z BTWN H9 AT APX/INL TO H825 AT GRB. SC MOST            
EXTENSIVE OVER THE CTNRL FA IN LLVL NE FLOW SHOWN ON THE MQT VWP AND            
STILL EVEN A FEW --SHRA...BUT CLR-PCLDY SKIES APRNT OVER THE FAR W              
AND OVER MOST OF THE E WHERE LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING. TEMPS AT 03Z             
HAVE FALLEN TO ARND 35 WHERE SKIES HAVE CLRD...BUT READINGS HOLDING             
UP MORE IN THE UPR 30S WHERE CLD HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. OTRW...A             
SHRTWV RIDING ENEWD THRU SCNTRL CAN...BUT AREA OF HIER CLD ON ITS               
SRN FLANK IS ONLY BRUSHING NRN MN/FAR NW LK SUP AND APPEARS ON TRACK            
TO STAY NW OF THE FA.                                                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE CLD TRENDS/TEMPS...THEN FOCUS INTO EARLY            
WEEK GENERALLY ON TEMPS WITH RDG FCST TO DOMINATE.                              
H925 FLOW FCST TO VEER FM NE TO MORE E OVERNGT...AND VWP/WINDS AT               
THE LK SUP BUOYS SHOW A SLOW TREND IN THIS DIRECTION. DISTRIBUTION              
OF PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET ALSO WOULD SUG A VEERING LLVL FLOW. THIS              
WSHFT SHOULD PROMOTE CLRG OVER ALL BUT THE NCNTRL-KEWEENAW AND SRN              
MNM COUNTY. WL LOOK AT STLT TO DETERMINE COVG OF LO CLD NR FCST                 
ISSUANCE AND PAINT GRIDS APPROPRIATELY. THEN FOR TDAY...SFC HI PRES             
RDG AXIS/ SHARP ACYC FLOW FCST TO PERSIST UNDER BLDG UPR HGTS. WITH             
H925 FLOW GRDLY TURNING MORE ESE DURING THE DAY UNDER INCRSG                    
INSOLATION/SLOWLY SINKING SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SC SHOULD GRDLY MIX                
OUT...LATEST OVER THE KEWEENAW. OTRW...SHRTWV OVER SCNTRL CAN WL                
TRACK MORE NE...SO ASSOCIATED CLD SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NW IN GOOD               
AGREEMENT WITH STLT TRENDS. GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUG HI TEMPS WL REACH            
50 TO 55 AT MOST SPOTS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOS/GOING FCST.                 
TNGT WL BE QUIET BUT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH SFC RDG AXIS REMAINING             
DOMINANT UNDER UPR RDG/PWAT ARND 0.35 INCH. A BIT CONCERNED NAM MOS             
HINTS AT DVLPMNT OF SOME LO CLD OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL FA WHERE FCST            
LGT ESE WIND WOULD UPSLOPE MSTR OVER LK MI (WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF            
LK CLD NOW) UNDER LO SUBSIDENCE INVRN IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL                
COOLING. GFS FCST SDNGS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE NAM'S...SO               
NOT YET READY TO GO WITH EXTENSIVE LO CLD DVLPMNT EVEN THOUGH COVG              
OF LO CLD TNGT IN THE AREA WARRANTS CONCERNS. WL ADD PTCHY FOG/ST               
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMP TO FALL THRU            
CROSS OVER DWPTS NOT FAR FM 30 EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WL GO BLO MOS                
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS AND MAINTAIN GOING NUMBERS.                              
EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT CU ON SUN...ANOTHER PLEASANT EARLY FALL DAY                  
APPEARS IN ORDER UNDER DOMINATING RDG FOLLOWING DISSIPATION OF ANY              
MRNG FOG/ST. WL HEDGE TOWARD HIER MAX TEMPS SHOWN BY THE GFS/NGM MOS            
PER MIXING TO INVRN BASE ARND H9 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS. GOING FCST              
NEEDS LTL CHG. QUIET WX WL LINGER SUN NGT...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW A             
BIT SHARPER NE GRADIENT FLOW DVLPG OVERNGT IN RESPONSE TO RISING                
MSLP IN ONTARIO UNDER SHARPENING RDG DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING WRN                
TROF. A BIT TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL AND FOG            
FORMATION AS TEMP WL HAVE A HARDER TIME FALLING THRU CROSS OVER                 
DEWPT FCST SUN AFTN. BUT WL STILL GO A BIT LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE              
FOR LO TEMPS AND MAKE FEW CHGS TO GOING FCST WITH PWAT REMAINING LO             
UNDER RDG.                                                                      
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR LO/DEEPER MSTR DRAWN N              
BY INCRS SSW FLOW ALF DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES             
WL REMAIN WELL SE OF THE FA ON MON. SO ANOTHER MOSUNNY DAY ON TAP               
WITH NE FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF BLDG HI PRES ACRS ONTARIO. SINCE NE            
FLOW WL DRAW DOWN SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR (GFS/UKMET FCST H85 TEMPS 1-2C            
LOWER THAN ON SUN)...HAVE ADJUSTED GOING HI TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES            
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH MIXING TO INVRN BASE ON GFS FCST SDNGS.                 
GOING DRY FCST INTO WED LOOKS ON TRACK. ALTHOUGH UPR HGTS FCST TO               
GRDLY FALL ON TUE...LTL IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SATURATE               
THE LO LVLS OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS. SO EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY AN INCRS            
IN HI CLD...NO PCPN EXPECTED. GOING FCST TEMPS FOR TUE APPEAR RSNBL             
AND MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES...SO NO CHGS ATTM.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
       FREEZE WARNING UNTIL MID MRNG MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
100 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN             
THE 2500-3500 FOOT AREA...SCATTERING OUT GRADUALLY IN THE 09Z TO 13Z            
TIMEFRAME. BY AND LARGE...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON             
SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL HOLD                
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO PUSH 20 KNOTS AGAIN MIDDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT                       
A BLOCKY AND MESSY UPPER PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WITH TROPICAL REMNANTS             
PLAGUING THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND PACIFIC JET INFLUX ENTERING THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE, WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND            
NO RADAR RETURNS, WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WITH               
THE ASSISTANCE OF 100+ 300MB JET ENTRANCE REGION OVERHEAD PROVIDING             
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  ON THE MESOSCALE...BANDS OF                 
STRATUS UNDER THE AC/CS CONTINUE TO COME IN OFF OF LAKE HURON YET NO            
REPORTS OF PRECIP FROM SURROUNDING RADAR SITES AND OBSERVATIONS.                
COOL NORTHEAST GRADIENT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM               
PERIOD.                                                                         
FOR TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SETTING            
UP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND               
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK UP THE EASTERN STATE.  THIS WILL PROLONG            
THE EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE HURON WITH INVERSION             
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALLING THRU THE NIGHT.  YET MODELS TEND TO CRASH                
THESE HEIGHTS TOO SOON AND LOOKING CLOSER AT THE RUC13 AND OTHER                
EXPERIMENTAL RUNS OF THE RUC/WRF...CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVERNIGHT              
OVER LAKE HURON INTO SAGINAW BAY WITH EVEN SOME HINT OF LIGHT QPF               
DEVELOPING INTO THE TRI CITIES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE THUMB.                
THIS MIGHT BE THE RESULT OF A MORE CLEARING TREND UPSTREAM AND LAND             
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FIELDS SOMEWHAT.                      
THEREFORE, WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES FOR THOSE              
COUNTIES NORTH OF I69 AND EAST OF I75.  OTHERWISE, WITH IMPRESSIVE              
INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT, LAKE STRATUS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON                
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.  WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE                      
APPROACHING...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS              
EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY MENTION OF               
PRECIP.                                                                         
HEADING INTO SATURDAY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHORT                
WAVE BECOMES STRUNG OUT AND WEAKENS EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF            
THE STATE.  EITHER WAY, THIS SHOULD INCREASE SUBSIDENCE FURTHER AND             
DRIER AIR UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND             
ASSIST WITH THE BREAK UP OF LAKE STRATUS CLOUDS.  SO WE MIGHT START             
OFF WITH MORE CLOUDS BUT TRANSITION TOWARD MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE            
DAY...PTSUNNY FORECAST!  MET NUMBERS LOOK TOO LOW AND LIKELY DUE TO             
MODELS' HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND CLOUD COVER.  WE WILL               
SHADE CLOSER TO THE MAV/FWC NUMBERS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT               
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...                                          
SURFACE RIDGE OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PRETTY MUCH HELD AT               
BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING KEEPS REAFFIRMING ITSELF IN THE            
EAST. AT 500 MB...EARLIER WEAKENED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL WOBBLING              
AROUND VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST MI SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL                
CALLING FOR A RATHER TRANQUIL FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH               
LITTLE OR NO SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. 850 TO 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY               
RATHER DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE WORKING BACK IN            
SUNDAY NIGHT. 925 MB MOISTURE...IN MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...A LITTLE              
BETTER...THOUGH EVEN THIS INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN EXPECTED                
DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND                
WIND FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON...IT WILL DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANY                 
WIDESPREAD CLEARING OR FROST THIS WEEKEND.                                      
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                        
12Z RUNS CONTINUE TO DEPICT CONSENSUS OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGHING             
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN LAKES                
REGION BY MONDAY AHEAD OF CLOSED SOUTHWESTERN USA LOW...FOLLOWED BY             
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH SHOULD SET UP AHEAD OF WESTERN LOW/TROUGH               
COMPLEX AT LEAST BY WEDNESDAY...A LITTLE EARLIER VIA 00Z/12Z                    
WRFXX...06Z DGEX...00Z GLOBAL. THEN...THE WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES IN               
AFTER MID WEEK TO BRING UNSETTLEDNESS/MOISTURE TO FORECAST AREA.                
AT THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGHINESS CONTINUING TO PUNCH NORTHWARD             
INTO EASTERN LAKES REGION AND INTO BROAD RIDGE TO THE NORTH EARLY IN            
WEEK. SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR FRONT MOVING IN FOR LATTER PART OF WEEK            
AS PER MODEL CONSENSUS.                                                         
BY MONDAY...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IN            
PLACE...WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT...WEAK 850 TO 700 MB THETA             
E RIDGE BULGING INTO AT LEAST EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE                         
EAST/SOUTHEAST... MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A LITTLE UPPER                
LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO BOOT...AND WEAK 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH                 
LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.                                        
WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME             
EASTERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA...AND MAY HAVE TO LATER EXPAND                
WEST IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONFIRM RECENT TRENDS. AS BEFORE...CHANCE              
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH             
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN THE BALL PARK.                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN           
 TO PORT HURON AND ALSO FOR SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460...UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.            
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...UNTIL 6 AM             
   SUNDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
AVIATION.....DG                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
340 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MDLS RMN IN GENL AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC TRENDS OVR REGION.   UPR               
RDG FCST TO BUILD INTO UPR MSVLY AND UPR GTLKS...WHILE CUTOFF LOW               
OVR N TX DRIFTS NE INTO OHIO VLY.  THIS WL KP STG SFC RDG THAT RUNS             
FROM THE GTLKS TO S PLAINS QSTNRY DURING THE WEEKEND.   THIS PTRN               
SHUD LEND ITSELF TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND LTL IN THE WAY OF              
PCPN.                                                                           
THE EXACT TEMP TRENDS WL RELY HEAVILY ON SKY COVER.  PINNING DOWN               
THESE SPECIFICS IS PROVING TO BE SMWHAT DFCLT AS CAN BE SEEN BY THE             
CHAOTIC CLD TRENDS DEPICTED BY THE STLT PICS OVRNGT.  WHILE THERE               
MAY BE SM EXPANSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVR THE NXT FEW                           
HRS...NAM...GFS...AND RUC SOUNDINGS DON'T LOCK A SGFNT AMT OF MSTR              
BLO INVERSION TDA...SO THINK THAT ONCE THE SUN BGNS WORKING ON THE              
ERY MRNG CLDS THEY SHUD SCT OUT...AND LACK OF CYC CRCLN SHUD KP ANY             
DIURNAL DVLPMT FROM BCMG A SGFNT CLD DECK.  SAT NGT CULD BE A REPEAT            
OF TNGT...WITH PATCHES OF SC FLOATING ACR AREA.  GOING TEMPS TDA AND            
TNGT LK GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW TWEEKS.                                            
ADDL CLDNS SHUD MV INTO AREA ON SUN AS MID CLDS ACCOMPANY THE NE                
MVMT OF THE UPR LO. THE NAM WANTS TO ADD TO THE CLD CVR BY ONCE                 
AGAIN SUGGESTING A THICK ST/SC LYR FORMING IN MOIST E LO LVL FLOW.              
THIS LWR CLD DECK SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR REASON FOR THE FOR THE                    
DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS BTWN MAV/MET MOS AT SM STATIONS FOR SUN.                
SINCE THE NAM APPEARED TO BE A BIT TOO ROBUST WITH THE LO LVL RH IN             
YSTDAS 00Z RUN WONT TOTALLY BUY INTO THIS MUCH LO CLDNS.  HWVR...DUE            
TO THE RTVLY COOL SFC RDG EVEN THE THICKENING MID CLDS MAY TRY TO               
CUT INTO TEMPS...SO HV MADE A SLGT DOWNWARD ADJ TO SUN TEMPS...MNLY             
IN S AREAS.                                                                     
INCRG PCPN CHCS BY MIDWK STLL LK GD AS UPR LO SPINS INTO PLAINS...SO            
NO CHGS RQRD TO MEDIUM RANGE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRUETT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
123 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.MARINE UPDATE...                                                               
WIDESPREAD 35-40 KT WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING AS JUST OBSERVED AT THE            
SEVERAL BEACHFRONT STATIONS AND BUOY 41013. SINCE THE WINDS DO NOT              
APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WILL UPGRADE            
TO A SHORT-FUSE GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER               
INLET THROUGH 10Z...6 AM EDT. THE LOW LEVEL JET CREATING THESE WINDS            
SHOULD PULL NORTH OF THE WATERS BY THIS TIME WITH WINDS SUBSIDING               
SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATER IN THE MORNING.                                          
UPDATE: TRA                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT/FLOOD POTENTIAL)...                                      
NO ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THERE HAS BEEN A WELCOME                
RELATIVE LULL IN THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW                 
HOURS. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH THAT ONE MORE ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS IN            
STORE FOR THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LOW TO MID LEVEL             
JET IS ROUNDING THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE.                 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING CONVECTION TO             
BLOSSOM EAST OF FLORIDA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IT WILL BE HEADED               
RIGHT FOR THE CAPE FEAR REGION. GFS HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH              
THE MOISTURE AND TAKEN LITERALLY IT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE VERY BEST            
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS            
THE NC COASTAL COUNTIES MORESO THAN THE SC COUNTIES. FLOOD WATCH                
WILL STAY AS IS THOUGH SINCE THE GROUND IS SO SATURATED THAT EVEN A             
LITTLE RAINFALL INLAND COULD LEAD TO MORE FLOODING ISSUES. LOW LEVEL            
FLOW SHOULD BE BACKED ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO CHANNEL THE DEEP                   
MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY THE FLOOD WATCH            
WILL NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND ITS EXPIRATION TIME (ONCE                   
AGAIN...MAYBE IN THE NC COASTAL COUNTIES).                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HAVE LARGELY CARRIED ON TRENDS FROM TODAY IN AT LEAST THE COASTAL               
TERMINALS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE IN A DEEP AND JUICY             
SSE FEED. TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL POCKETS OF                       
PRECIP...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...SO I            
WENT WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO GO BETWEEN MVFR/VFR CIGS IN THE                       
BREAKS...TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIG AND VIS IN THE PRECIP.  SERIOUS             
DIPS INTO IFR WILL BE TOO BRIEF TO EVEN WARRANT A TEMPO.  WILL                  
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAFS...WITH KFLO EVEN            
IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE               
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROLL NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS               
THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OUTSIDE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY 15-20               
KT...BUT DOWNDRAFTS IN THE CONVECTION ARE LIKELY PRODUCING GUSTS                
UPWARD OF 30 KNOTS AT TIMES...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.                   
THE NAM AND RUC MODELS BOTH INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET ORGANIZING                 
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR AROUND                    
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH ALONG ONSLOW BAY EARLY             
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE             
ACTIVITY IN THIS JET...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE                
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 35 KNOTS               
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS LATER TONIGHT. IT IS                  
DEFINITELY NOT A NIGHT TO PLAN AN EXCURSION OFFSHORE.                           
BUOY 41013 MAY HAVE SUSTAINED DAMAGE TO ITS WAVE SENSOR AS IT HAS               
ONLY REPORTED SEA HEIGHT ONE HOUR OUT OF THE PAST 24. LATEST                    
WAVEWATCH FORECASTS AND DATA FROM BUOY 41004 (EAST OF CHS) INDICATE             
LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED TO OUR SEAS FORECAST TONIGHT...6 TO 9 FEET              
OFF SC AND 8 TO 11 FEET OFF NC - HIGHEST IN THE VICINITY OF FRYING              
PAN SHOALS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL NC COUNTIES UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.                       
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL SC COUNTIES EXCEPT DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO             
     UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.                                                       
MARINE...GALE WARNING SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET THROUGH 6 AM              
      SATURDAY.                                                                 
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE                    
      RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.                                           
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET FROM              
      6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.                               
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MBB                                                                
AVIATION...RAS                                                                  
MARINE...TRA                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
421 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
11-3.9 SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS ENTRENCHED OVER THE                
SOUTHERN DAVIS MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU AND BIG BEND REGION. THE               
LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND LOW                
CLOUDS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND             
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT ACCORDING            
TO THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP AND RUC40 DATA WILL BE OVER                        
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND THE STOCKTON               
PLATEAU.  WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER             
THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS AS WELL AS ADD MORNING FOG TO MOST OTHER            
AREAS.                                                                          
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY             
SKIES OVER THE AREA AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN                
U.S. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW A              
LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO.               
THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SETUP OVER THE            
AREA BY MIDDAY. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND THUS                    
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY/S               
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 850MB THERMAL              
RIDGE... WE HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO FOR MOST                 
LOCATIONS TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE            
TONIGHT AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK MESO-LOW WILL DEVELOP              
OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION. TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL              
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL GIVEN SLOWLY INCREASING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE              
WINDS. FOR NOW...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT                     
TONIGHT... BUT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA               
PLATEAU REGION WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AFTER                       
MIDNIGHT. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG FOR THE REMAINDER              
OF THE REGION AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH                
RANGE...WHICH WILL HAMPER FOG FORMATION.                                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS THE TROUGH THAT                  
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND IS STILL FORECAST TO                
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.                        
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO                   
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNER AREA               
WITH A PACIFIC FRONT SLATED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH                 
GOOD UPPER FORCING SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS 10 PERCENT ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FURTHER INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.               
THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN TRANSLATE NORTHEAST SLOWLY THROUGH THE                  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.               
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY          
TOWARDS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN BOTH DAYS WHERE THE PACIFIC FRONT             
WILL SLOW MONDAY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A NORTHERN STREAM COOL FRONT TUESDAY.       
WOULD BE TEMPTING TO PULL POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN WITH            
THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TYPICALLY         
GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND THE SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN       
DUE TO TERRAIN AND LIGHTER MID LEVEL WINDS. SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS             
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE                
UPPER LOW BEFORE IT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH...DID NOT MENTION IN WEATHER           
GRID YET BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                                         
BEYOND TUESDAY MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE PASSED           
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW WILL LAG AS A            
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. WENT WITH ISOLATED TO                
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH TROUGH IN              
PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE WESTERN            
SECTIONS CLOSEST TO THE DISTURBANCE. LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW                    
BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY                   
POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DAYS           
IN THE EXTENDED BASED ON PROGGED 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES. TWEAKED             
LOW TEMPERATURES. POPULATED WIND GRIDS WITH THE MEXMAF. LOOKS LIKE              
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE GUADALUPES SUNDAY AND COLUMBUS DAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AREA TAF                
SITES THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREADS CONVERGE.               
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KINK AND POSSIBLY KCNM. THE                
10Z-15Z TIME FRAME WILL BE FAVORED FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.                      
DISSIPATION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE QUICKER WITH MOST AREAS               
INTO VFR RANGE AROUND 16Z. STRATUS DECK OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU AND              
BIG BEND REGION MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DISSIPATE AS THE                    
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEEPER IN THIS REGION.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              72  55  81  64 /   0   0  10  30                     
CARLSBAD NM                79  56  86  60 /   0   0  20  40                     
DRYDEN TX                  75  56  86  64 /   0   0   0  20                     
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  58  86  64 /   0   0  10  20                     
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  58  81  55 /   0   0  20  30                     
HOBBS NM                   77  55  86  62 /   0   0  20  40                     
MARFA TX                   75  48  83  55 /   0   0  20  20                     
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  55  82  63 /   0   0  10  40                     
ODESSA TX                  74  56  83  63 /   0   0  10  40                     
WINK TX                    80  56  88  65 /   0   0  20  40                     
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06/12/99                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1025 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS EDGING CLOSER TO                      
ILLINOIS...NOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO                        
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI.  12Z SOUNDINGS AT BOTH KILX AND KDVN                    
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR 850MB TRAPPED                   
BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  RUC 850MB RH FORECASTS SHOW MOISTURE               
SPREADING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KILX CWA THIS                  
MORNING...VERY SIMILAR TO LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP.  EARLY                 
OCTOBER SUN WILL LIKELY MIX A GOOD DEAL OF THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE OUT            
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO THINK SKIES WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY                    
OVERCAST.  NAM CU-RULE BACKS THIS UP...INDICATING ONLY SCT CU.  WILL            
UPDATE GRIDS FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WITH SKIES BECOMING                 
PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BOARD BY AFTERNOON.  TEMP FORECAST IS                   
RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO ZONE UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SURFACE RIDGE               
WEST OF THE STATE...WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL OF CENT AND SE             
IL. THE 3.9IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A STRATOCU DECK PERSISTENT ALONG            
AND WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER BAND COMING DOWN LAKE            
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DANVILLE.             
THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WITH SKY COVER AND                 
TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MET AND MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS            
NOT HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER WELL AT ALL...ALTHOUGH THE NAM                     
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS OFFER BETTER CLUES. THE NEXT            
ISSUE WILL BE MID-WEEK WITH THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING UPPER                  
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
WILL START OUT THE DAY MOSTLY CLOUDY IN WEST CENTRAL IL BASED ON                
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE 00Z NAM AND 06Z RUC 800-900 MB RH                 
FIELD WERE FAIRLY CLOSE IN DEPICTING THIS CLOUD COVER...AND INDICATE            
IT SHOULD STAY INTACT MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING.            
THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SE IL WILL START OUT THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY...            
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN                     
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF ECENT IL FROM CMI-DNV WHERE LAKE EFFECT                 
CLOUDS WILL MEANDER IN AND OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AFFECT ON                
TEMPS WILL BE TO HAVE VALUES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN                   
YESTERDAY IN THE 57 TO 62 RANGE. THE NEXT CLOUD COVER PROBLEM IS                
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN             
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW                 
LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NRN TX ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO AID IN             
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA. LOWS WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY               
ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                        
A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY            
AND TUESDAY...BUT THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE QUITE A BIT...GIVING              
US HIGHS NEAR 70 AND LOWS NEAR 50 WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.                     
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                         
BY MIDWEEK...THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT A CLOSED LOW FROM THE DESERT            
SOUTHWEST WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF AND               
UKMET ARE SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT AS QUICK AS THE GFS.              
NONE OF THE MODELS USUALLY DO A VERY GOOD JOB WITH CLOSED LOWS IN               
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....AND THEY ALMOST ALWAYS BRING THEM OUT TOO               
QUICKLY. THE LATEST GFSLR IS EVEN HINTING THAT THE PRECIP MAY HOLD              
OFF IN CENT/SE IL UNTIL LATER WED OR EVEN ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THE               
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED WILL LEAVE THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE            
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...AND AVOID POSSIBLE FORECAST FLIP-FLOPS BY              
TAKING IT OUT AND PUSHING IT BACK TO THURSDAY. REGARDLESS...NO BIG              
PLUNGE OF COLD AIR OR RETURN TO ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS IS                   
ANTICIPATED LATE NEXT WEEK...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH                    
SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BARNES/MILLER                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
615 AM EST SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTENSIVE 4KFT               
CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT                  
STRONG 850MB INVERSION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. NOW APPEARS                
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THIS INVERSION AND DO NOT EXPECT             
THIS TO MIX OUT SO WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS             
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LEAVING THE AREA THIS MORNING, WHILE              
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY              
AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT(THE VALUE OF THE ISOBARS OVER            
THE CWA WILL NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH TONIGHT). THE WIND TODAY AND                  
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH THE WIND WEAKENING                
SOME TONIGHT AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ISOBARS ARE NOT             
QUITE AS TIGHTLY PACKED TONIGHT AS THEY WILL BE TODAY. WITH THE AREA            
BEING IN THE SAME AIR MASS TODAY AS YESTERDAY...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE             
FAIRLY SIMILAR AND THE LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER WITH LESS                  
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT THAN THERE WAS THIS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE            
CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...WHICH COULD ALSO                
HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE TEMPS TODAY. WATCHING SATELLITE PICTURES YOU              
CAN SEE THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING OUR CLOUD COVER AND THE WIND                 
DIRECTION AND SPEED IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR TODAY. SO                
SEAMS THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE...HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ALSO               
SHOWING GOOD SUBSIDENCE TODAY WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE            
HIGH WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY...AND HOW MUCH IS THIS                   
SUBSIDENCE GOING TO AFFECT THINGS. THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO            
BE LEAVING THE AREA THIS MORNING...TAKING SOME OF THE HELP FOR                  
KEEPING THE CLOUDS HERE...AWAY. TRIED TO GO MAINLY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY            
SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE CWA BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS                     
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUDS THIS             
AFTERNOON THAN OUR SOUTHERN PART AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP IN             
OUR SOUTHERN PART.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STAYING WITH              
DRY FORECAST THROUGH DAY 7. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES                
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK BUT RETURN FLOW             
FROM GULF STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN CUT OFF AND LITTLE MORE THAN                  
INVERTED TROF SEEN IN SFC PATTERN WITH THESE SYSTEMS. SO WHILE IT IS            
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINT NEXT                    
WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR FEATURE WOULD SUGGEST               
AVOIDING POTENTIAL FOR FLIP-FLOP FORECAST AND STAY WITH PERSISTENCE             
FOR NOW. EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD GOING            
FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY TO A FEW ABOVE NORMAL BY              
MID-WEEK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-             
     LMZ046.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...98                                                                 
LONG TERM....04                                                                 
AVIATION...04                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1027 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH SATELLITE SHOWING LOW CLOUD                     
SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KY. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND              
LATEST RUC AND 06Z NAM SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE            
ACROSS EAST KY...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NEAR TERM GRIDS.               
WAS ALREADY OVERCAST TODAY IN THE GRIDS BUT HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER            
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET FOR                 
TODAY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO GRIDDED FORECAST.              
MOSTLY DRIZZLE TO FALL OUT OF SHALLOW CLOUD DECK TODAY...BUT HAVE               
LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MEASUREABLE LIGHT RAIN AS LOZ DID                   
MEASURE ONE-HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH WITH -RA THIS MORNING. UPDATED                 
PRODUCT FORECAST SUITE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING TRANSMITTED.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
520 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
SFC CHART THIS MORNING SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT                     
LAKES...AND WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYING ROUGHLY ALONG THE SPINE OF             
THE APPALACHIANS. SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE            
REGION AND WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING              
SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RADAR AND SFC OBS INDICATE A SWATH OF               
LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE              
IN ITS WAKE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FURTHER WEST ASSOCIATED WITH                 
SHORTWAVE.                                                                      
MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TWO MAIN SHORT WAVES TO CONTEND            
WITH. THE FIRST MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE SECOND PUSHES                 
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND             
MONDAY. BEST ESTIMATE WOULD PUT THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH EASTERN                   
KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO INCREASE MONDAYS                 
SLIGHT POPS TO LOW CHANCE WITH HIGHEST POPS SLATED FOR THE MID                  
MORNING PERIOD.                                                                 
NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT               
LEFT A SLIGHT POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE             
COMPLETES ITS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AXIS OF UPPER AIR TROUGH WILL            
HAVE MADE IT THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH                  
MAINLY MORNING TYPE WORDING FOR PRECIP IN THE ZONES. ALSO LEFT                  
HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST WITH SHOWERS STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR                  
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM TN AND VA.                                                
VERY CURIOUS AT HOW MOS GUIDANCE WAS SO DIFFERENT...WITH OVERALL                
FEATURES IN THE MODEL RUNS BEING QUITE SIMILAR. THIS MADE FOR A                 
DIFFICULT TEMP FORECAST. LOOKING OVER TIME HEIGHT SERIES AND FCST               
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO DRY OUT THE               
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS                  
AGREE ON A VERY MOIST AND CLOUDY BOUNDARY LAYER. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL              
HELP TO GUARANTEE THIS FOR AT LEAST MOST OF THE DAY. BUT CAN NOT                
RULE OUT A PEAK AT THE SUN IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.                     
CONSEQUENTLY WENT WITH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS THAN MAV MOS                      
ADVERTISED...BUT WARMER THAN WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MET MOS PRECIP              
COOLED TEMPS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS CLOUD             
COVER SHOULD STILL BE SUBSTANTIAL. THEREAFTER...LEANED TOWARDS MAV              
MOS TEMPS AS IT HAS RECENTLY BEEN PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE MET AND            
FWC MOS.                                                                        
955 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS             
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN REGION OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH            
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE NO MEASURABLE                        
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST              
AREA...ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 310K SFC IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER             
6Z AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MICHIGAN AND                    
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF APPROACH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS FOR THIS               
AREA...BUT WILL LOWER THEM. ALSO WILL KEEP MENTION OF DRIZZLE                   
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES...LOWERED POPS             
SATURDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO                     
TEMPS/WINDS/CLOUD COVER.                                                        
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM (SAT-MON)...MAIN CHALLENGES FOR SHORT TERM             
ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. WENT WITH A              
BLEND OF MAV AND FWC MOS TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MIN AND MAX                      
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY SUNDAY AND            
MONDAY. FELT WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT THIS             
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE...FELT MOS MIN TEMPERATURES               
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WERE A BIT TO COOL...SO WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE             
MOS FOR WEEKEND LOWS.                                                           
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN MOVING                    
WESTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A            
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO STILL DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN                 
KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STEADY FLUX IN MOISTURE FROM            
THE SOUTH INTERACTING WITH AND MOVING OVER THE FRONT. WITH AMPLE                
MOISTURE IN PLACE IN LOW AND MIDLEVELS...STILL FEEL LIKE ENOUGH                 
CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT TO ALLOW FOR AN              
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND               
TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING               
HOURS ON SATURDAY. WITH LACK OF JET SUPPORT...NOT ANTICIPATING                  
ANYMORE THAN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FA. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY                  
DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A CHANCE             
OF RAIN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE                
WEST.                                                                           
DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED...AND WINDS LOOKED GOOD AS                
WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.                                           
FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                         
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL PLACE KENTUCKY IN THE            
DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS OF A DEEP FOUR CORNERS LOW THAT OPENS UP BY                  
MIDWEEK AND LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ENERGY LEFT BEHIND IN              
THE DEEP SOUTH...BY OUR CURRENT NEIGHBORHOOD TROUGH...WILL COME                 
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...LINGERING AS A WEAK               
CLOSED LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL THEN OPEN UP IN TANDEM WITH               
THE FOUR CORNERS LOW LIFTING NORTH AS WELL. FOLLOWING THIS...WEAKER             
FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK               
WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH LEFTOVER ENERGY FROM THE            
FOUR CORNERS LOW...AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS             
IN A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT COULD THREATEN THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.            
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.            
FOR THE MOST PART...SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED...WILL FEATURE             
LINGERING LOW MOISTURE FROM THIS WEEKEND/S LOW AND SLOW MOVING                  
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT THE                   
MOISTURE...BUT WITH NO REAL PUSH FROM ALOFT THIS WILL BE A SLOW                 
PROCESS....AT BEST. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAISED LOWS             
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LEFT THE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL. THE                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO NONE               
RANGE DUE TO THE WEAK SFC FEATURES...WITH A SLIGHT DIURNAL TREND                
MIXED IN. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE QPF POTENTIAL LOW FOR NEXT WEEK.                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SBH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
719 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A 0930Z ACARS SOUNDING ON DECENT INTO DTW SHOWED A VERY STRONG                  
INVERSION NEAR 4700FT. A COLD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT               
LAKES HAS ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT STRATUS TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH              
THIS INVERSION. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND 11Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE               
THESE CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THE INVERSION SHOULD              
REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH PERSISTENT                         
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW... THESE CLOUDS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO                      
DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT            
LAKES TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOME DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR                
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO                 
BREAK UP AROUND DTW/DET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FLOW                
WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE               
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAKENING INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW              
THE CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT AROUND FNT AND MBS AFTER 00Z.                           
THE BASES OF THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2400 TO 3500 FT.                   
DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO ALLOW THE CLOUD BASES TO RISE ABOVE              
3K FT THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF SUNSHINE TODAY              
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AROUND                 
MONROE COUNTY HAVE COMPLETELY FILLED IN. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF               
THE INVERSION... THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTH                   
AMERICA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE            
WEST COAST CARVES OUT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US BY SUN                    
MORNING. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO EASTERN OHIO TONIGHT...ALLOWING A             
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW            
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE WATER             
VAPOR SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE MID            
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST US. THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE                      
SOUTHEASTERN WAVE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH                   
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY... STRATUS               
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.                   
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 5K FEET.              
STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON HAS ALLOWED QUITE A BIT            
OF MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION... RESULTING            
IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW             
WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY. OF THE             
00Z MODEL SUITE...THE RUC WAS THE ONLY SOLUTION TO HAVE A REASONABLE            
HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE INVERSION. THE RUC HOWEVER              
SEEMS TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS TOO QUICKLY. GIVEN THERE WILL BE                
SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 850MB TODAY AND PERSISTENT                    
NORTHEAST FLOW AND INSTABILITY OFF LAKE HURON... THINK THESE CLOUDS             
ARE GOING TO TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME               
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MONROE COUNTY. WITH THE ONSET             
OF DAYTIME HEATING... THIS MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE                
ACROSS THE SOUTH. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADD SOME                   
DOWNSLOPE INTO WAYNE COUNTY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CLOUDS                
BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST                
AREA... WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL THUS                
SIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS...KEEPING MOST LOCALS IN              
THE 50S.                                                                        
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD             
FOCUS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NORTH OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN ACROSS LAKE            
HURON. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 925MB COUPLED WITH THE MID LEVEL            
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WEAKEN THE INVERSION TONIGHT. MUCH DRYER LOW LEVEL            
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK               
ITS WAY INTO SE MICHIGAN. SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CLEARING               
TREND TONIGHT. DESPITE THE CLEARING... ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT SHOULD              
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO NEAR              
FREEZING. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THUS LOOK                
REASONABLE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER                 
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY            
AIRMASS AND IS ESSENTIALLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT. THIS SHOULD                  
CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE ALONG THE             
EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                     
THE UPPER LOW WILL HEAD INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY                        
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST AS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER             
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE KEY TO THE FORECAST IS                 
DETERMINING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST...AS 500             
MB LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS                     
(GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/NOGAPS) FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK INTO THE            
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS IS IS PRETTY MUCH                
WHAT YESTERDAY'S WRFXX RUN HAD. ALTHOUGH...TONIGHT'S WRFXX RUN                  
STALLS THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY            
FATHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT 00Z NAM FORECASTED POSITION OVER                   
CHICAGO. WITH THE EASTERN TRACK FAVORED...TOUGH CALL WHETHER OR NOT             
PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP BACK THIS FAR WEST (ESPECIALLY WITH MODELS              
TRENDING FATHER EAST). NONE-THE-LESS...STILL WORTHY OF LOW CHANCE               
POPS CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA (MONDAY THROUGH             
TUESDAY)...PER CURRENT FORECAST. JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO                 
TEMPERATURES TO LOWER THE DIURNAL RANGE BASED ON THE CONSIDERABLE               
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.                                                           
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY                          
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE                  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON                
WEDNESDAY (PER EUROPEAN/GFS/CANADIAN). OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT A                
DONE DEAL JUST YET....AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY              
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM...WITH MUCH            
OF THE ENERGY LINGERING BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...BUT IT DOES                
LOOK LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...AS MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO            
INCREASE IN EARNEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT                  
AUSTIN      TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.              
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.                     
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONSIDINE                                                 
LONG TERM...SF                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1115 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
DURING THE MORNING...ENHANCED RAINFALL...MAINLY JUST EAST OF THE                
RALEIGH COUNTY WARNING AREA...AIDED BY STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS            
NOTED ON MSAS ANALYSIS...AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AS OBSERVED ON             
THE 250MB UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS.  GOOD COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS ON IR                 
IMAGES OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING SHOWING SOME WARMING AS              
THE AFTERNOON APPROACHED...IN ADVANCE OF MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR               
HEADED NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER             
LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.                                           
COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST               
DURING THE DAY.  ANTICIPATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF            
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST            
AS UPPER DIVERGENCE WEAKENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THE RUC AND A              
40-50KT 500MB JET...DEPICTED ON THE KMHX RAOB AND SHOWN WELL ON THE             
RUC...SHIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST AS WELL.  K INDICES AND 850MB                   
THETA-E...DESPITE REMAINING HIGH...ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME                
THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COUNTIES BELOW VALUES OF THE MORNING.  FOR            
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALBEIT LIGHT...WEST THROUGH            
THE TRIANGLE AND THE TRIAD SHOULD ALSO BECOME MORE SCATTERED.                   
MSAS ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO BE             
LOCATED BASICALLY ACROSS BURLINGTON SOUTH THROUGH ROCKINGHAM.  THE              
FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  BY MID                    
AFTERNOON THE RUC FORECAST LIFTED INDICES BELOW ZERO MAINLY FROM                
U.S. EASTWARD...AND THIS GENERALLY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE HIGHER                 
MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR JUST A              
LITTLE MORE HEATING THAN ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY TOWARD FAYETTEVILLE               
AND CLINTON...WHERE 850MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY             
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODIFIED GSO SOUNDING FOR MID-TO-UPPER 70S               
AND SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE ALOFT SHOWS A CAPE NEAR 2000J/KG...            
IN LINE OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON RUC FORECAST                  
VALUES.  HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AND                 
SOUTHEAST ZONES.  ALTHOUGH LCL VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW...RUC MODEL               
SOUNDING HELICITY FORECASTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS                    
AFTERNOON...BELOW 100M2/S2 THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.                   
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH...MAINLY LOWER DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD               
COVER...WHICH SHOULD HANG TOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THROUGHOUT THE                
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS VERY HIGH.  COULD            
NOT LOWER TOO MUCH...THOUGH...AS HIGH DEW POINTS KEPT TEMPERATURES              
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH LAST NIGHT.  GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS                 
ALREADY ISSUED.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 210 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005)                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE                  
LOCATED OVER EASTERN GA MOVING NE WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE             
ENHANCING RAINFALL OVER THE MTNS. IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL FEED OF                   
MOISTURE CONTINUED TO FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC NNW ACROSS SC AND              
CENTRAL NC... AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MID LEVEL DRYING EXTENDED FROM            
NE GA... SSE TO NEAR CHS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A WEAK LOW             
(1003 MB) NEAR AUGUSTA NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC.                
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING NEAR             
THE SURFACE AND H85 TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF NC AND VA              
DURING FRIDAY EVENING... AND ALONG THE SE COAST. LIGHTER RAINS                  
CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...                
WITH SCATTERED HEAVY TROPICAL SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE              
PAST 3 HOURS HAVE AVERAGED AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SCATTERED             
AREAS RECEIVING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.                                       
STORM TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES EXCEPT             
2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE S-W PIEDMONT AND OVER THE                
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THE RAH 88D ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION                
ESTIMATES (IN TROPICAL ZR MOST OF THE EVENT)... HAVE BEEN ABOUT                 
50-60 PERCENT OF GROUND TRUTH REALITY. THE GROUND TRUTH AMOUNTS HAVE            
BEEN QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO THE TROPICAL CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE                
RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THE GFS HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON DEPICTING               
THE QPF MINIMUM OVER CENTRAL NC WITH THIS EVENT WITH MAXIMUMS ALONG             
THE BLUE RIDGE... AND ALONG THE SE COAST.                                       
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH BUT HAS LOWERED QUITE A BIT IN THE            
PAST 24 HOURS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HILLY TERRAIN OF FORSYTH COUNTY            
(WINSTON-SALEM) WHERE THEY WERE AT THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH             
1/3/6 HOUR VALUES AT AROUND 2/3/3.4 INCHES... LOWER IN THE URBAN                
CENTERS.                                                                        
ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE              
AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE            
BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME TO TRACK SW-NE THROUGH THE                 
REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE              
TROUGH AND WEAK LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY              
LOCALLY ENHANCING RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE                 
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING SW... AND INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST. QPF                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A              
HALF AND ONE INCH WITH LOCAL 2 INCH AMOUNTS.                                    
THE SOILS APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE EXPECTED QPF. HOWEVER...              
THE HILLY AREA AND URBAN AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TRIAD            
ARE BECOMING MORE VULNERABLE IF 1 TO 1.5 INCH HOURS RATES DEVELOP...            
OR IF TRAINING DEVELOPS. WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT              
TO ADDRESS THE THREAT AND WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THE CURRENT                 
TIME.                                                                           
FOR TODAY... EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN                    
TAPERING FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF             
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN                 
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                                     
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH              
MID LEVEL DRYING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NNE AS THE                   
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL BE                
OVERRUN BY A SSW FLOW ALOFT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF             
DRIZZLE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SLOW TO             
FALL IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (PREFER THE WARMER MET)... BUT                 
TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S NW TO 70S SE (CLOSER TO GFS).             
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... ENHANCED MOIST NE LOW LEVEL            
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY SW FLOW ALOFT. CHANCE OF             
MEASURABLE RAIN MAY INCREASE AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS A H5                   
CIRCULATION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... AND THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST            
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. NO BIG CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST EXCEPT             
TO LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.                
SOME DRYING EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW IS                   
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY.                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING IFR/LIFR CIG PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH               
DAYBREAK... AND VSBYS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY VARY BETWEEN P6SM            
AND 1SM TO 2SM IN MODERATE RAIN THROUGH 12Z. THE GFS'S SUPERIOR                 
INITIALIZATION OF THE MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE GA/AL BORDER &                  
BETTER DEPICTION OF CURRENT PRECIP MAKES IT THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.             
RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY MIDDAY AS SLIGHT MID-UPPER              
LEVEL DRYING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES IN SOUTH TO NORTH.              
WILL RAISE CIGS TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON... THEN DROP THEM BACK DOWN            
TOWARD IFR AS THE LOWER COLUMN STABILIZES IN THE EVENING. -GIH                  
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1009 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW IN MI...CUTOFF LOW IN                     
OK...AND TROUGH IN GA/FL. SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES NE TO SW                 
BETWEEN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AS EVIDENCED BY DEW POINT                      
GRADIENT THERE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN                    
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LEE OF MTS...WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW NOTED IN                
OBSEVATIONS.                                                                    
LOWERED SKY COVER PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO LOWERED POPS...                   
ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE LEE OF MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST DRYING OCCURRING.              
ADDED THUNDER EXTREME E WHERE MODEL CAPES REMAIN MARGINAL.                      
DICOUNTED MODEL CAPES UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY WHERE MODEL DEW POINTS              
REMAIN HIGHER THAN OBSERVED VALUES. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES IN                  
FOOTHILLS WHERE OBSERVATIONS ABOVE GUIDANCE...AND LOWERED                       
TEMPERATURES IN MOUNTAINS WHERE OBSERVATIONS BELOW GUIDANCE.                    
UPDATED DEW POINTS WITH OBSERVED VALUES THIS MORNING...HIGHER E                 
AND LOWER W. ADJUSTED MAV TOO MOIST MID MORNING...AND ADJUSTED MET              
EVEN MORE MOIST...SO JUST REDUCED OBSERVED MORING DEW POINT BY A                
DEGREE OR SO. BY MID DAY ADJUSTED MAV ON TRACK WITH STEADY DRYING               
THROUGH AFTERNOON. UPDATED WIND FROM RUC WHHICH MAINTAINS WEAK                  
DOWNSLOPE THROUGH DAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 548 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
WILL UPDATE PUBLIC PRODUCTS AND GRIDS TO ALLOW WATCH TO EXPIRE AND              
TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE FORMER WATCH AREA. WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW                
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH MOUNTAIN MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN WARM START.              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 307 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
SFC LOW CENTER ANALYZED JUST WEST OF CHARLOTTE AT 06Z THIS                      
MORNING...WITH RADAR SHOWING RAPIDLY DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE                
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT FFA FOR SW SECTIONS                  
THAT EXPERIENCED NO FLOODING FRIDAY...AND ALLOW REMAINDER OF                    
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 6 AM.                  
THE GFS SOLUTION WILL BE HEAVILY PREFERRED THROUGH THE                          
PERIOD...WITH BETTER MID LEVEL DRYING AS BOUNDARY VERY SLOWLY                   
SLIDES EAST AND NE GULF UPPER VORT TRANSLATES UP THE ERN SEABOARD.              
MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE NRN STREAM GREAT LAKES WAVE                   
STAYING N OF THE REGION...WHILE THE LOWER MS VALLEY WAVE OPENS UP               
AND BRUSHES THE NC MTNS ON MONDAY. IN THE INTERIM...LOW LEVELS                  
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...AND A WEAK 850 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO               
REDEVELOP SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE REGION TO BRING LIGHT UPGLIDE BACK              
IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE DIMINISHING...                 
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD               
BUT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS COULD REMAIN PERSISTENT. WILL ACCORDINGLY            
KEEP A FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS. SHOWER CHANCE MAY                   
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MTNS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS VORT                
LIFTS OUT.                                                                      
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
THE DEEPER CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND                 
LIFT NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEEK. LIMITED PRECIP                     
CHANCES UNDER WEAK SE RIDGING UNTIL LATE WEEK LOOKS VERY GOOD                   
STILL AND NO CHANGES EXPECTED.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH             
THREAT FOR RAINFALL AT TERMINALS RAPIDLY ENDING. THEREFORE...THE                
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG/                  
STRATUS POTENTIAL. KGSP VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES NORTHERLY FLOW IN            
THE LOWEST 6K FEET OR SO. CIGS AT THE UPSTATE TERMINALS AND KAVL                
HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IN CONSIDERATION            
OF THIS WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO STAY THERE              
FOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. WILL JUST INDICATE FEW-SCT                
CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE. AT KCLT...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE              
H8 TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST             
TEMPOS FOR IFR. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK MIXING (ESP                 
ACROSS THE WEST)...DO NOT EXPECT VISBY TO BE A BIG PROBLEM THIS                 
MORNING...AND WITH ALL 4 TERMINALS ALREADY WELL INTO THE VFR                    
RANGE...WILL LIMIT VISBY RESTRICTIONS TO THE UPPER END OF MVFR.                 
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAT                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION WITH MOISTURE            
TRAPPED BELOW 800 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AREEMENT WITH KEEPING LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION THROUGH SUNDAY                  
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE AS WELL. ALL THIS POINTS            
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WITH LOW LEVEL OVERCAST TO CONTINUE FEEL             
THE MAV AND MET MOS A LITTLE COOL ON LOWS TONIGHT AND HAVE OPTED TO             
KEEP GRIDDED FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT CLOSE TO WHAT WE                 
ALREADY HAD. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD AGAIN SUNDAY FEEL THAT MAV MOS             
MAXIMUMS ARE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER NOT AS COOL AS MET MOS WHICH HAS                 
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN EITHER THE FWC OR MAV.             
MET MOS LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL OVERALL WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. FOR              
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SKY                 
COVER...AND HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CLOSE TO THE CURRENT                    
FORECAST GRIDS.                                                                 
FOR WEATHER HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN SLIGHT              
CHANCE...BUT WILL LIKELY GO WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER EASTERN                    
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING. NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE            
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOWING UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE                  
IMAGERY OVER TEXAS. ALL MODELS...DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING             
AND STRENGTH BRING LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROF NORTHEAST. NAM AND GFS               
SHOW VERY LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE MAV MOS                 
REMAINS BELOW 20 PCT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH            
THE NAM ALSO SHOWS LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE THE MET MOS IS 30 TO               
40. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS LIMITED BUT WITH APPROACH OF                
MID/UPPER LOW DO NOT WANT TO DROP POPS TO LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.              
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CONTINUITY...AND WILL CONTINE WITH THE 20 TO              
30 POPS WE HAD IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                       
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                    
MODEL OF PREFERENCE WAS GFS. ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE TO                   
EXTENDED. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER...PRECIPITATION                        
PROBABILITY...AND WEATHER GRIDS PER LATEST MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS                 
FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AS WELL...SO NEW MODEL DATA WAS MASSAGED            
TO AGREE MORE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF                 
MODELS BRINGING A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH AMPLE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL                 
MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS...FELT                
CHANCE POPS WERE STILL WARRANTED FOR LATE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT            
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME NEXT SUNDAY. LOOK FOR             
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY            
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                           
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE NOT CHANGED. WINDS              
NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO BETTER REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF THE              
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1027 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                      
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH SATELLITE SHOWING LOW CLOUD                     
SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KY. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND              
LATEST RUC AND 06Z NAM SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE            
ACROSS EAST KY...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NEAR TERM GRIDS.               
WAS ALREADY OVERCAST TODAY IN THE GRIDS BUT HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER            
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET FOR                 
TODAY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO GRIDDED FORECAST.              
MOSTLY DRIZZLE TO FALL OUT OF SHALLOW CLOUD DECK TODAY...BUT HAVE               
LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MEASUREABLE LIGHT RAIN AS LOZ DID                   
MEASURE ONE-HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH WITH -RA THIS MORNING. UPDATED                 
PRODUCT FORECAST SUITE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING TRANSMITTED.                     
520 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
SFC CHART THIS MORNING SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT                     
LAKES...AND WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYING ROUGHLY ALONG THE SPINE OF             
THE APPALACHIANS. SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE            
REGION AND WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING              
SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RADAR AND SFC OBS INDICATE A SWATH OF               
LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE              
IN ITS WAKE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FURTHER WEST ASSOCIATED WITH                 
SHORTWAVE.                                                                      
MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TWO MAIN SHORT WAVES TO CONTEND            
WITH. THE FIRST MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE SECOND PUSHES                 
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND             
MONDAY. BEST ESTIMATE WOULD PUT THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH EASTERN                   
KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO INCREASE MONDAYS                 
SLIGHT POPS TO LOW CHANCE WITH HIGHEST POPS SLATED FOR THE MID                  
MORNING PERIOD.                                                                 
NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT               
LEFT A SLIGHT POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE             
COMPLETES ITS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AXIS OF UPPER AIR TROUGH WILL            
HAVE MADE IT THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH                  
MAINLY MORNING TYPE WORDING FOR PRECIP IN THE ZONES. ALSO LEFT                  
HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST WITH SHOWERS STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR                  
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM TN AND VA.                                                
VERY CURIOUS AT HOW MOS GUIDANCE WAS SO DIFFERENT...WITH OVERALL                
FEATURES IN THE MODEL RUNS BEING QUITE SIMILAR. THIS MADE FOR A                 
DIFFICULT TEMP FORECAST. LOOKING OVER TIME HEIGHT SERIES AND FCST               
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO DRY OUT THE               
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS                  
AGREE ON A VERY MOIST AND CLOUDY BOUNDARY LAYER. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL              
HELP TO GUARANTEE THIS FOR AT LEAST MOST OF THE DAY. BUT CAN NOT                
RULE OUT A PEAK AT THE SUN IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.                     
CONSEQUENTLY WENT WITH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS THAN MAV MOS                      
ADVERTISED...BUT WARMER THAN WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MET MOS PRECIP              
COOLED TEMPS. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS CLOUD             
COVER SHOULD STILL BE SUBSTANTIAL. THEREAFTER...LEANED TOWARDS MAV              
MOS TEMPS AS IT HAS RECENTLY BEEN PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE MET AND            
FWC MOS.                                                                        
955 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005                                                       
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS             
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN REGION OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH            
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE NO MEASURABLE                        
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST              
AREA...ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 310K SFC IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER             
6Z AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MICHIGAN AND                    
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF APPROACH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS FOR THIS               
AREA...BUT WILL LOWER THEM. ALSO WILL KEEP MENTION OF DRIZZLE                   
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES...LOWERED POPS             
SATURDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO                     
TEMPS/WINDS/CLOUD COVER.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SBH/RICHEY                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
328 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS GETTING UNDERWAY. MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL            
BE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT 12-24HRS UNTIL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES            
OUT AND TEMPS MODERATE ENOUGH TO END LAKE GENERATED CLOUDINESS.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO             
THE SWRN STATES WITH RIDGE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL                 
CONUS INTO ONTARIO. A MIDLEVEL LOW WAS OVER TX. VIS SATELLITE                   
IMAGERY SHOWED WIDESPREAD STRATOCU/STRATUS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT                
LAKES IN GENERAL ERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS              
EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI TO SW WI. 12Z KAPX               
SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY SHARP INVERSION BASED AT 895MB (3.6KFT MSL)              
WITH -4C TEMP AT BASE OF INVERSION PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT                
EXTENSIVE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ABOVE                     
INVERSION WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS INCREASING TO 22C AT 800MB AND TO               
39C AT 750MB. ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AT KGRB...SOUNDING SHOWED A                  
WARMER TEMP PROFILE WITH INVERSION BASED AT 825MB (5.7KFT MSL).                 
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS...AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS HAS BEEN               
RAPIDLY DECREASING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL TEMP MODERATION AND MIXING OUT              
OF MOISTURE INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE INVERSION BASE. ONLY AREAS              
IN UPPER MI STILL AFFECTED BY OVERLAKE TRAJECTORIES ARE LIMITED TO              
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY.                                      
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS                     
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...              
KEEPING SHORTWAVES WELL NW/N OF HERE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER TX TO               
THE S AS IT UNDERCUTS RIDGE. THIS LEAVES TEMPS/CLOUDS AS THE ONLY               
FCST ISSUES. GFS/NAM SHOW SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY            
TONIGHT...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE ESE             
OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS BRINGS CONCERN FOR STRATUS/STRATOCU                
EXPANDING INTO SCNTRL/SW FCST AREA. GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS OVER NRN             
LAKE MICHIGAN SHOW TEMP AT BASE OF INVERSION AROUND 5C TONIGHT...BUT            
THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH AS BOTH MODELS WERE 2C TOO WARM WITH TEMP            
AT INVERSION BASE OVER NCNTL LWR MI BASED ON 12Z KAPX SOUNDING. IN              
ANYCASE...WITH SFC WATER TEMP AROUND 16C...INSTABILITY WILL BE                  
SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED STRATUS/STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE. IN                      
ADDITION...JUST THE SIMPLE ACT OF UPSLOPING THE LAKE MODIFIED AIR               
INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI WOULD LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EVEN IF THE              
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WAS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. SO...WILL TREND              
SKY GRIDS TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA            
WHERE FLOW WILL BE UPSLOPING. TO THE W...FLOW VEERS MORE SRLY WHICH             
SHOULD BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW...             
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE VERY TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. WHERE SKIES ARE                    
EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR...HAVE KEPT MINS CLOSE TO GOING               
FCST WHICH IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE (REASONABLE               
FOR NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS). HAVE BUMPED UP                
MINS A LITTLE OVER THE S WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.                  
MODERATING TEMP PROFILE AND CONTINUAL MIXING OUT OF LOW-LEVEL                   
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE SUNDAY WHERE THE DAY                
STARTS OUT WITH SOME CLOUDS. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWS              
NO CU DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF AREAS WHERE LOW LEVELS ARE MOISTENED BY            
FLOW ACROSS ANY OF THE GREAT LAKES. SO EXPECT LITTLE OR NO CU                   
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FCST SOUNDINGS. MIXING TO                
AROUND 900MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER            
50S SUN...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO GOING FCST AND VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE.              
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE WIND MON NIGHT...HAVE FAVORED LOWER END             
OF MOS GUIDANCE.                                                                
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC HIGH PRES                
INTO WRN ONTARIO MON...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING NERLY FLOW.                   
APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT              
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU IN UPSLOPING FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE            
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH SINCE THE NAM SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR            
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...SINCE GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A              
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE MON...HIGHS INLAND SHOULD BE             
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SUN. NERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN                
HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME AS SUN FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.                       
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT/TUE...PROVIDING CONTINUED              
QUIET WEATHER WITH ERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS DUE TO SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED            
TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT MINS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S MON            
NIGHT WITH HIGHS TUE GENERALLY AROUND 60 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.              
WED THRU SAT...CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN                   
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN...BUT GFS/ECMWF ARE AGAIN MOST              
SIMILAR. PCPN POTENTIAL EARLY IN THIS PERIOD IS RELATED TO MIDLEVEL             
LOW OVER THE WRN PLAINS TUE THAT OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING             
NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED/THU. GIVEN GOOD MODEL RUN-TO-RUN                    
CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THIS SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN THE                 
GOING FCST OF CHC POPS LATER WED INTO THU AS SYSTEM CROSSES THE                 
AREA. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVBL TO THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM SUGGESTS              
IT VERY WELL COULD PASS THRU THE AREA WITH NO PCPN...THUS ONLY LOW              
END CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED. PREVIOUS GFS RUNS INCLUDING              
00Z/07 REFORECAST ENSEMBLES INDICATED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT              
DROPPING INTO THE AREA FRI. 00Z/08 GFS BACKED OFF ON THAT SHORTWAVE             
DROPPING AS FAR SE...BUT 06Z GFS TRENDED BACK TOWARD PREVIOUS RUNS.             
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT IT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE                 
MOVING THE PREVIOUS TROF EWD. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL TREND                  
TOWARD THE SLOWER PROGRESSION PER HPC DISCUSSION...AND WILL GO WITH             
A DRY DAY ON FRI. LEANING TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF PROGRESSION...NEXT                
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATER SAT. TEMPS THRU THE                
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE MID            
50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S.                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
326 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                                
PESKY LOW STRATUS AND UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION WITH              
RECENT TRENDS SEEN IN THE 1KM VISIBLE QUITE PROMISING BUT WILL TAKE             
THIS WITH CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM.  RADAR IMAGERY ALL DAY HAS SLOWLY SHOWN            
SOME SHOWERS INFILTRATING FROM KPHN-KTFF AND AS LONG AS THIS UPPER              
LOW REMAINS IN OUR VICINITY...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF               
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THOSE EASTERN                      
COUNTIES.  LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE IN THE IMMEDIATE            
SHORT TERM AND BY 10-11PM... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH                 
TOWARD KDET-KTTF THEN EITHER DISSIPATE OR BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY                
MIDNIGHT.  THEN WE ARE LEFT WHAT TO DO WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.                                                     
VARIETY OF NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL LOSE THE                  
STRATUS (AS CURRENTLY SEEN) WITH THE MAIN CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE              
TRI CITIES AND THUMB.  YET AS THIS UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES             
SOUTH...SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND NOCTURNAL INVERSION                
DEVELOPS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OFF THE LAKE BELOW THE INVERSION.               
SO COULD SEE STRATUS RE-DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MOST OF THE               
CWA OVERNIGHT.  WE WILL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 40F            
WITH THE WARMER VALUES NEAR DETROIT AND LAKE SHORES...COOLER WELL               
INLAND.                                                                         
SUNDAY...MODELS ATTEMPT TO FURTHER DECOMPOSE THE UPPER LOW WITH THE             
NAM MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE GFS/WRF.                  
GIVEN OUR RECENT TRENDS, WE WILL FAVOR CLOSER TO THE NAM BUT EITHER             
WAY...A DRY DAY.  EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS ARE             
QUITE SHALLOW AND WOULD SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE              
LOWER 60S.  NORTHEAST FLOW TRAJECTORY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE EAST                
WITH TIME TO ASSIST WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE AT             
THE LOWER LEVELS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE PREVAILING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES                 
THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL PUNCHES NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN               
STATES OF INVERTED TROUGHINESS. AT 500 MB...WEAKENED VORTICITY                  
LOBE/TROUGH VIA GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS GETTING PUSHED BACK NORTH                  
INTO/ACROSS FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WELL DEFINED                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER TX GETS            
NUDGED NORTHEAST ON UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN            
WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS THEN SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH RETREATING               
SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST...ALBEIT WITH MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN               
TIMING...AS BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SETS UP OVERHEAD IN ITS WAKE.               
LOW TO MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SHOW MOISTURE MAINLY                  
CONFINED TO EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT BEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                   
TUESDAY...WITH NAM MORE ROBUST WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE THAN GFS. AT            
925 MB...INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN              
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERN THETA E RIDGE              
NUDGES EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY WEEK...FOLLOWING THETA E                  
ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.                        
MODELS SHOW SLIGHT AT BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT             
AND MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY WEAK SUBSIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK 850              
TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WORKING BACK INTO FORECAST AREA BY                
MONDAY AND LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS WEAK 850 TO 700 MB                 
DEFORMATION OVER AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...AND MODELS SHOW SURFACE                  
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING EARLY PART OF WEEK BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE                 
EASTERN COUNTIES.                                                               
WILL CONTINUE FORECAST VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO EARLIER...KEEPING                 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH               
TUESDAY...AND WITH ALSO VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE              
FORECASTS.                                                                      
AFTER EARLY WEEK...SOME CONSENSUS SHOWING MORE IN WAY OF BROADENED              
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO FORECAST AREA            
BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE EXISTS GREAT                   
VARIATION IN DETAILS AMONG MODELS...INCLUDING RUN TO RUN                        
CHANGES...GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER MID WEEK...WESTERN MID LEVEL            
LOW OPENS UP AND ADVANCES INTO LAKES REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.            
LOTS OF MODEL VARIATION AS TO TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ON TO THE EAST              
AS WELL...BUT PREFER MODEL CONSENSUS OF DRY CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY.             
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOISTURE/TROUGH...WILL RETAIN CHANCE MENTION             
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GUIDANCE                       
TEMPERATURES IN THE BALL PARK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 115 PM EDT SAT                                               
VERY DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  H2O                 
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE WITH A SHARP            
MOISTURE GRADIENT SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS.  NORTHEAST SFC FLOW                
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE HURON WITH AMPLE LAKE                  
INDUCED STRATUS.  HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY              
SHOWING SOME OF THE DRIER AIR UPSTREAM FILTERING SOUTHWEST AND THIS             
MIGHT BE A SLOW PROGRESSING TREND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  NUMERICAL            
MODELS ARE NOT DOING WELL AS ALL OF THEM TOO QUICKLY ERODE THIS                 
STRATUS LAYER.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THESE MVFR CEILINGS WITH A BKN                
DECK AND ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY               
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE               
 WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.                     
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...UNTIL                  
 6PM SUNDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VERY DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  H2O                 
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE WITH A SHARP            
MOISTURE GRADIENT SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS.  NORTHEAST SFC FLOW                
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE HURON WITH AMPLE LAKE                  
INDUCED STRATUS.  HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY              
SHOWING SOME OF THE DRIER AIR UPSTREAM FILTERING SOUTHWEST AND THIS             
MIGHT BE A SLOW PROGRESSING TREND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  NUMERICAL            
MODELS ARE NOT DOING WELL AS ALL OF THEM TOO QUICKLY ERODE THIS                 
STRATUS LAYER.  WE WILL HOLD ONTO THESE MVFR CEILINGS WITH A BKN                
DECK AND ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY               
MORNING.                                                                        
BGM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...  ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT                                                
WILL ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF SUNSHINE TODAY              
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AROUND                 
MONROE COUNTY HAVE COMPLETELY FILLED IN. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF               
THE INVERSION... THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTH                   
AMERICA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE            
WEST COAST CARVES OUT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US BY SUN                    
MORNING. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO EASTERN OHIO TONIGHT...ALLOWING A             
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW            
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE WATER             
VAPOR SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE MID            
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST US. THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE                      
SOUTHEASTERN WAVE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH                   
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY... STRATUS               
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.                   
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 5K FEET.              
STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON HAS ALLOWED QUITE A BIT            
OF MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION... RESULTING            
IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW             
WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY. OF THE             
00Z MODEL SUITE...THE RUC WAS THE ONLY SOLUTION TO HAVE A REASONABLE            
HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE INVERSION. THE RUC HOWEVER              
SEEMS TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS TOO QUICKLY. GIVEN THERE WILL BE                
SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 850MB TODAY AND PERSISTENT                    
NORTHEAST FLOW AND INSTABILITY OFF LAKE HURON... THINK THESE CLOUDS             
ARE GOING TO TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME               
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MONROE COUNTY. WITH THE ONSET             
OF DAYTIME HEATING... THIS MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE                
ACROSS THE SOUTH. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADD SOME                   
DOWNSLOPE INTO WAYNE COUNTY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CLOUDS                
BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST                
AREA... WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL THUS                
SIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS...KEEPING MOST LOCALS IN              
THE 50S.                                                                        
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD             
FOCUS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NORTH OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN ACROSS LAKE            
HURON. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 925MB COUPLED WITH THE MID LEVEL            
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WEAKEN THE INVERSION TONIGHT. MUCH DRYER LOW LEVEL            
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK               
ITS WAY INTO SE MICHIGAN. SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CLEARING               
TREND TONIGHT. DESPITE THE CLEARING... ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT SHOULD              
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO NEAR              
FREEZING. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THUS LOOK                
REASONABLE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER                 
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY            
AIRMASS AND IS ESSENTIALLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT. THIS SHOULD                  
CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE ALONG THE             
EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                     
THE UPPER LOW WILL HEAD INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY                        
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST AS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER             
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE KEY TO THE FORECAST IS                 
DETERMINING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST...AS 500             
MB LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS                     
(GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/NOGAPS) FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK INTO THE            
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS IS IS PRETTY MUCH                
WHAT YESTERDAY'S WRFXX RUN HAD. ALTHOUGH...TONIGHT'S WRFXX RUN                  
STALLS THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY            
FATHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT 00Z NAM FORECASTED POSITION OVER                   
CHICAGO. WITH THE EASTERN TRACK FAVORED...TOUGH CALL WHETHER OR NOT             
PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP BACK THIS FAR WEST (ESPECIALLY WITH MODELS              
TRENDING FATHER EAST). NONE-THE-LESS...STILL WORTHY OF LOW CHANCE               
POPS CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA (MONDAY THROUGH             
TUESDAY)...PER CURRENT FORECAST. JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO                 
TEMPERATURES TO LOWER THE DIURNAL RANGE BASED ON THE CONSIDERABLE               
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.                                                           
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY                          
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE                  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON                
WEDNESDAY (PER EUROPEAN/GFS/CANADIAN). OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT A                
DONE DEAL JUST YET....AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY              
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM...WITH MUCH            
OF THE ENERGY LINGERING BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...BUT IT DOES                
LOOK LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...AS MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO            
INCREASE IN EARNEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT                  
AUSTIN      TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.              
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.                     
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONSIDINE                                                 
LONG TERM...SF                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
311 PM MDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
CORRECTED DAY OF THE WEEK IN SECOND PARAGRAPH.                                  
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS A TROUGH MOVES CLOSER AND                 
CLOSER TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. RUC80 ANALYSIS INDICATING AN                 
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH ERN AZ/WRN NM WITHIN                 
EXIT REGION OF TROUGH. THIS WAVE HAS INITIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS                
AND STORMS OVER THE WRN ZONES AS VERTICAL ASCENT INCREASES IN AN                
AREA OF 300MB DIVERGENCE. SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE A THREAT THIS                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER                 
SHEAR ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE                
HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL WORK EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO                
NUMEROUS POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES. VERY LIGHT SNOW                 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE                
CO BORDER. BEST THREAT WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS                 
AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.                                        
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH                
SUNDAY...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EJECTION SPEED AND HOW WRAP                 
AROUND PCPN AFFECTS THE REGION. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...HOWEVER                
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM AS CLOSED LOWS ARE TYPICALLY                
SLOW TO MOVE WITHOUT A KICKER. SIGNIFICANT SERIES OF VORT MAXES                 
WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CWFA...THUS SCATTERED/                
NUMEROUS POPS A GOOD CALL FOR SUN. HIGHEST VALUES SHOULD BE OVER                
THE NRN/NE ZONES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTS                
OF NRN/W CNTRL NM SUN NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE                
NRN MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY ABOVE 8500 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT WARNING                
CRITERIA TO OCCUR ATTM...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS ALONG THE CO BORDER                
COULD EXPERIENCE SOME ADVISORY SNOWFALL IF TEMPS CAN REMAIN COOL                
ENOUGH. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE                 
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND BRING                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE. LATE SUN NIGHT/               
EARLY MON MAY PROVE A BIT TRICKY FOR THE RATON PASS. A NORTHERLY                
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ON THE CO SIDE OF                
THE PASS.                                                                       
GFS STARTS TO PULL OUT THE UPPER LOW ON MON AS A DRY SLOT STARTS                
TO WORK INTO AZ/SW NM. INCREASED POP GRIDS ACROSS THE BOARD BY A                
FACTOR OF TEN PERCENT BANKING ON A SLOWER EJECTION. LATER SHIFTS                
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING MORE CLOSELY WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.                
NONETHELESS...WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NRN CWFA                
FOR MON/MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FOR THE EVENING AS A                
COOLER POCKET OF MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE STATE.                            
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS A                
THICK CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR MASS ALOFT AFFECTS THE REGION. IN                
ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NE CORNER OF NM AND               
CLEAR THE ERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON AN EAST                
CANYON WIND AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. LOW GRADE POPS               
LINGER IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE/WED AS UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW LINGERS               
AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES SET OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS.                        
DPORTER                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  49  63  42  61 /  60  50  30  20              
GALLUP..........................  44  63  36  60 /  50  40  20  20              
GRANTS..........................  45  62  37  59 /  60  50  30  20              
GLENWOOD........................  51  72  42  70 /  50  40  20  10              
CHAMA...........................  37  52  30  51 /  70  70  50  50              
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  58  36  54 /  60  60  40  40              
RED RIVER.......................  36  49  27  42 /  40  60  50  60              
TAOS............................  45  60  38  52 /  50  50  50  50              
SANTA FE........................  46  58  37  54 /  50  50  40  40              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  48  60  40  56 /  50  50  30  40              
ESPANOLA........................  47  63  40  58 /  60  60  40  40              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  66  47  63 /  50  50  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  50  67  47  65 /  50  50  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  50  65  43  63 /  50  50  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  51  68  44  65 /  50  50  30  30              
SOCORRO.........................  52  72  47  67 /  50  50  30  20              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  61  37  56 /  50  50  30  30              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  47  63  41  58 /  40  50  30  30              
CARRIZOZO.......................  51  70  46  65 /  40  50  30  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  48  62  40  58 /  30  50  30  20              
RATON...........................  44  67  38  51 /  20  40  60  60              
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  62  37  55 /  40  40  40  40              
ROY.............................  48  67  41  54 /  20  40  50  50              
CLAYTON.........................  50  71  44  54 /  20  30  60  50              
SANTA ROSA......................  51  71  45  64 /  20  40  40  30              
TUCUMCARI.......................  54  74  51  64 /  20  30  50  40              
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  75  49  66 /  20  30  40  30              
CLOVIS..........................  52  75  49  65 /  10  30  50  20              
PORTALES........................  52  76  50  68 /  10  30  50  20              
ROSWELL.........................  54  79  53  73 /  20  30  40  10              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
311 PM MDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS A TROUGH MOVES CLOSER AND                 
CLOSER TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. RUC80 ANALYSIS INDICATING AN                 
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH ERN AZ/WRN NM WITHIN                 
EXIT REGION OF TROUGH. THIS WAVE HAS INITIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS                
AND STORMS OVER THE WRN ZONES AS VERTICAL ASCENT INCREASES IN AN                
AREA OF 300MB DIVERGENCE. SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE A THREAT THIS                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER                 
SHEAR ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE                
HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL WORK EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO                
NUMEROUS POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES. VERY LIGHT SNOW                 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE                
CO BORDER. BEST THREAT WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS                 
AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.                                        
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH                
SUNDAY...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EJECTION SPEED AND HOW WRAP                 
AROUND PCPN AFFECTS THE REGION. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...HOWEVER                
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM AS CLOSED LOWS ARE TYPICALLY                
SLOW TO MOVE WITHOUT A KICKER. SIGNIFICANT SERIES OF VORT MAXES                 
WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CWFA...THUS SCATTERED/                
NUMEROUS POPS A GOOD CALL FOR SUN. HIGHEST VALUES SHOULD BE OVER                
THE NRN/NE ZONES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTS                
OF NRN/W CNTRL NM WED NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE                
NRN MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY ABOVE 8500 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT WARNING                
CRITERIA TO OCCUR ATTM...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS ALONG THE CO BORDER                
COULD EXPERIENCE SOME ADVISORY SNOWFALL IF TEMPS CAN REMAIN COOL                
ENOUGH. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE                 
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND BRING                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE. LATE SUN NIGHT/               
EARLY MON MAY PROVE A BIT TRICKY FOR THE RATON PASS. A NORTHERLY                
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ON THE CO SIDE OF                
THE PASS.                                                                       
GFS STARTS TO PULL OUT THE UPPER LOW ON MON AS A DRY SLOT STARTS                
TO WORK INTO AZ/SW NM. INCREASED POP GRIDS ACROSS THE BOARD BY A                
FACTOR OF TEN PERCENT BANKING ON A SLOWER EJECTION. LATER SHIFTS                
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING MORE CLOSELY WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.                
NONETHELESS...WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NRN CWFA                
FOR MON/MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FOR THE EVENING AS A                
COOLER POCKET OF MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE STATE.                            
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS A                
THICK CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR MASS ALOFT AFFECTS THE REGION. IN                
ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NE CORNER OF NM AND               
CLEAR THE ERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON AN EAST                
CANYON WIND AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. LOW GRADE POPS               
LINGER IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE/WED AS UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW LINGERS               
AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES SET OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS.                        
DPORTER                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  49  63  42  61 /  60  50  30  20              
GALLUP..........................  44  63  36  60 /  50  40  20  20              
GRANTS..........................  45  62  37  59 /  60  50  30  20              
GLENWOOD........................  51  72  42  70 /  50  40  20  10              
CHAMA...........................  37  52  30  51 /  70  70  50  50              
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  58  36  54 /  60  60  40  40              
RED RIVER.......................  36  49  27  42 /  40  60  50  60              
TAOS............................  45  60  38  52 /  50  50  50  50              
SANTA FE........................  46  58  37  54 /  50  50  40  40              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  48  60  40  56 /  50  50  30  40              
ESPANOLA........................  47  63  40  58 /  60  60  40  40              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  66  47  63 /  50  50  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  50  67  47  65 /  50  50  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  50  65  43  63 /  50  50  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  51  68  44  65 /  50  50  30  30              
SOCORRO.........................  52  72  47  67 /  50  50  30  20              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  61  37  56 /  50  50  30  30              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  47  63  41  58 /  40  50  30  30              
CARRIZOZO.......................  51  70  46  65 /  40  50  30  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  48  62  40  58 /  30  50  30  20              
RATON...........................  44  67  38  51 /  20  40  60  60              
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  62  37  55 /  40  40  40  40              
ROY.............................  48  67  41  54 /  20  40  50  50              
CLAYTON.........................  50  71  44  54 /  20  30  60  50              
SANTA ROSA......................  51  71  45  64 /  20  40  40  30              
TUCUMCARI.......................  54  74  51  64 /  20  30  50  40              
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  75  49  66 /  20  30  40  30              
CLOVIS..........................  52  75  49  65 /  10  30  50  20              
PORTALES........................  52  76  50  68 /  10  30  50  20              
ROSWELL.........................  54  79  53  73 /  20  30  40  10              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1246 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
UPDATING TO RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERTAURES LEE OF MTS AND ALONG BLUE                
RIDGE WHERE LACK OF CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1009 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW IN MI...CUTOFF LOW IN                     
OK...AND TROUGH IN GA/FL. SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES NE TO SW                 
BETWEEN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AS EVIDENCED BY DEW POINT                      
GRADIENT THERE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN                    
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LEE OF MTS...WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW NOTED IN                
OBSEVATIONS.                                                                    
LOWERED SKY COVER PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO LOWERED POPS...                   
ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATE LEE OF MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST DRYING OCCURRING.              
ADDED THUNDER EXTREME E WHERE MODEL CAPES REMAIN MARGINAL.                      
DICOUNTED MODEL CAPES UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY WHERE MODEL DEW POINTS              
REMAIN HIGHER THAN OBSERVED VALUES. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES IN                  
FOOTHILLS WHERE OBSERVATIONS ABOVE GUIDANCE...AND LOWERED                       
TEMPERATURES IN MOUNTAINS WHERE OBSERVATIONS BELOW GUIDANCE.                    
UPDATED DEW POINTS WITH OBSERVED VALUES THIS MORNING...HIGHER E                 
AND LOWER W. ADJUSTED MAV TOO MOIST MID MORNING...AND ADJUSTED MET              
EVEN MORE MOIST...SO JUST REDUCED OBSERVED MORING DEW POINT BY A                
DEGREE OR SO. BY MID DAY ADJUSTED MAV ON TRACK WITH STEADY DRYING               
THROUGH AFTERNOON. UPDATED WIND FROM RUC WHHICH MAINTAINS WEAK                  
DOWNSLOPE THROUGH DAY.                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 548 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
WILL UPDATE PUBLIC PRODUCTS AND GRIDS TO ALLOW WATCH TO EXPIRE AND              
TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE FORMER WATCH AREA. WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW                
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH MOUNTAIN MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN WARM START.              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 307 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
SFC LOW CENTER ANALYZED JUST WEST OF CHARLOTTE AT 06Z THIS                      
MORNING...WITH RADAR SHOWING RAPIDLY DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE                
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT FFA FOR SW SECTIONS                  
THAT EXPERIENCED NO FLOODING FRIDAY...AND ALLOW REMAINDER OF                    
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 6 AM.                  
THE GFS SOLUTION WILL BE HEAVILY PREFERRED THROUGH THE                          
PERIOD...WITH BETTER MID LEVEL DRYING AS BOUNDARY VERY SLOWLY                   
SLIDES EAST AND NE GULF UPPER VORT TRANSLATES UP THE ERN SEABOARD.              
MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE NRN STREAM GREAT LAKES WAVE                   
STAYING N OF THE REGION...WHILE THE LOWER MS VALLEY WAVE OPENS UP               
AND BRUSHES THE NC MTNS ON MONDAY. IN THE INTERIM...LOW LEVELS                  
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...AND A WEAK 850 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO               
REDEVELOP SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE REGION TO BRING LIGHT UPGLIDE BACK              
IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE DIMINISHING...                 
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD               
BUT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS COULD REMAIN PERSISTENT. WILL ACCORDINGLY            
KEEP A FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS. SHOWER CHANCE MAY                   
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MTNS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS VORT                
LIFTS OUT.                                                                      
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
THE DEEPER CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND                 
LIFT NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEEK. LIMITED PRECIP                     
CHANCES UNDER WEAK SE RIDGING UNTIL LATE WEEK LOOKS VERY GOOD                   
STILL AND NO CHANGES EXPECTED.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH             
THREAT FOR RAINFALL AT TERMINALS RAPIDLY ENDING. THEREFORE...THE                
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG/                  
STRATUS POTENTIAL. KGSP VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES NORTHERLY FLOW IN            
THE LOWEST 6K FEET OR SO. CIGS AT THE UPSTATE TERMINALS AND KAVL                
HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IN CONSIDERATION            
OF THIS WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO STAY THERE              
FOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. WILL JUST INDICATE FEW-SCT                
CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE. AT KCLT...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE              
H8 TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST             
TEMPOS FOR IFR. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK MIXING (ESP                 
ACROSS THE WEST)...DO NOT EXPECT VISBY TO BE A BIG PROBLEM THIS                 
MORNING...AND WITH ALL 4 TERMINALS ALREADY WELL INTO THE VFR                    
RANGE...WILL LIMIT VISBY RESTRICTIONS TO THE UPPER END OF MVFR.                 
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAT                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
305 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS                            
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE STILL              
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS STILL BLANKET ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA WITH SOME             
BREAKS ACROSS SW NC AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT              
HAS NOW MOVED ALMOST TO THE EAST COAST AT MID AFTERNOON. COLD AIR               
ADVECTION IS CONTINUING WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH OVER THE               
SOUTHERN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COOL AND RANGE FROM THE MID             
50S IN PARTS OF SW VA AND THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE                
LOWER AND MID 60S EXCEPT THE UPPER 60S SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LOWER 70S            
SW NC.                                                                          
CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES AND SHORT TERM RUC MODEL SHOWING UPPER               
LOW OVER OHIO BRINGING SOME LOW CLOUDS SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER.             
ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX IS ALREADY SPREADING                
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS NE INTO MIDDLE TN AND NORTH AL ABOVE THE              
LOW CLOUD DECK THAT IS STILL THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW               
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WEST TN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT               
AND SUNDAY THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND            
ITS AFFECT ON LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE GFS MODEL IS SCOURING              
OUT THE MOISTURE SOME TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THE GUIDANCE DROPS                 
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S...THEN SUNDAY WITH BREAKS WARMING               
MOST PLACES INTO THE 70S. WILL FOLLOW THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS TONIGHT            
IN THE LOWER 50S AND FOR SUNDAY A BLEND WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW                 
DEGREES BELOW MAV. CROSS SECTION RH DATA BELOW 850 MB STAYS ABOVE               
90 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                             
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MIDLEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST             
AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IN RESPONSE THE 850             
MB WINDS TURN TO A MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND INCREASE. LOW LEVEL               
WARM THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING BELOW 500 MB                           
COOLING...RESULTING IN 850-500 LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 7 C/KM. NAM ALSO             
SHOWS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE             
IN THE TN VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. THUS WILL ADD             
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP                   
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE GFS SHOWS VERY                   
LITTLE LIFT DESPITE A 28/S VORT MAX...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT A LOW                
CHANCE. HEIGHTS RISE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM                  
EXITS AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT                 
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.                
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUN MONDAY TO REACH 80 WHILE                  
CLOUDS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S. WITH MORE              
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.                
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER              
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.                 
THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE...AND AN                    
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE LIFT ON THURSDAY. MODELS                 
DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE DGEX              
SHOWING A SLOW CLOSED CIRCULATION AND THE GFS SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE             
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. GIVEN THESE DISPARITIES WILL NOT MAKE                 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE KEPT AS                
LOW CHANCES. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A LARGE RIDGE CROSSES THE EASTERN               
CONUS...GIVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  53  72  59  79 /  10  10  30  20                       
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  53  70  58  76 /  10  10  30  20            
OAK RIDGE, TN  52  70  57  75 /  10  10  30  20                                 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  50  69  55  71 /  10  10  20  30                        
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TD/DGS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tn