AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
836 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE                  
LOWER MS VALLEY AREA. A NW FLOW ALOFT NOTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER                
LAYER BASED ON 00Z SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DUE TO A                    
MID-UPPER TROUGH JUST MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST.                
LITTLE TO NO CIRRUS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COLDER AIRMASS AND DRY CONDS              
WILL ALLOW FOR COLD TEMPS TONIGHT WITH AROUND 30 INLAND AND UPPER               
30S AT THE COAST. AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED DUE TO FAIRLY MOIST                   
GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS. IN LOOKING AT RUC...LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER               
WINDS FROM THE NW WILL HELP TO NOT ENSURE A PERFECT RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING NIGHT SO HAVE NOT GONE UNDER GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...RECENT             
COLD EVENTS INDICATE MODELS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR MIN                 
TEMPS ESPECIALLY THE MAV GUIDANCE. STILL APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT               
DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPS OVER INLAND NE FL ZONES TO WARRANT THE               
FREEZE WARNING. NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER                
20S. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE MINOR.                          
A PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID                 
60S WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT SFC AND ALOFT DOMINATING THE                    
REGION. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE                
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR W.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
IN CONTROL.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...W TO NW FLOW INDICATED IN THE OBS AT THIS TIME DUE TO A               
WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM JAX NWD INTO THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AS THIS               
WEAKENS NEXT FEW HOURS ANTICIPATE WINDS TO VEER TO NLY TONIGHT                  
AND INCREASE AS DEPICTED IN NAM AND RUC. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE               
ADJUSTED FOR TRENDS. IT APPEARS SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS LOOKS GOOD              
TO LET EXPIRE AT 10 PM AND MAY NEED TO REPLACE WITH SCEC HEADLINE.              
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-          
     BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.                
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-             
     BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION.                       
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-DUVAL-NASSAU-PUTNAM.          
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA             
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-                   
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-               
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/LETRO/KEEGAN                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
628 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. 18Z               
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE AFTER            
COLD FRONT PASSES. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 40KT POSSIBLE TUE             
EVENING. RUC13 SFC PROGS SHOWING SUSTAINED 35KT...AND 18Z MAV                   
SHOWING SUSTAINED 30KT WINDS. THUS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO                     
ISSUE AT THIS TIME.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.                                                        
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS                     
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...LIKELY TO               
BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS JUST 2KFT ABOVE THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE                
THE MENTION OF WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOST OF                
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SURFACE. SOME LIGHT                  
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK THEIR WAY IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND               
WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR AS THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE                 
SCATTERED. BY 12Z THEY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND SO WILL GO               
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. ALSO THINK THAT WIND SHEAR WILL              
END BY AROUND 12Z AS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO BE PRESENT...AS                
WELL AS BETTER MIXING TO THE SURFACE CREATING LESS OF A SHEAR.                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALL DAY TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE                
MVFR CATEGORY CIGS ALL DAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE                 
SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND AFTER 22Z WILL BECOME SUSTAINED                
BETWEEN 16-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KTS AT THIS TIME. ALSO A                  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL JUST MENTION               
CB FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND HOW FAR AWAY IT STILL IS.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
VIS SAT SHOWS OVC SKIES ACRS THE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 40S WITH             
DEWPTS IN THE MID 20S AND WINDS OUT OF THE SSW AROUND 15KTS GUSTING             
TO AROUND 25KTS. RADAR SHOWS SPRINKLES AND VIRGA OVR THE FA AS WELL.            
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS...WINDS...AND SVR POTENTIAL WITH FRONTAL              
SYSTEM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST             
PART IN THE SHORT TERM SO WL USE A BLEND.                                       
TONIGHT...WAA AND CLOUD CVR WL KEEP LOWS UP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S               
RIGHT WITH GUIDANCE. CHCS FOR POPS SHUD INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS            
A S/W MVS THRU AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES. DO NOT EXPECT GREAT               
AMOUNTS BUT ENUF FORCING TO KEEP LIKELY RAIN. WHILE PRES GRADIENT               
STRENGTHENS ACRS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT INVERSION IS STRONG ENUF             
TO KEEP THE STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SFC.                            
TUESDAY...NAM HAS SLOWED FROPA FROM YESTERDAYS RUN AND NOW IS ABOUT             
MIDWAY THRU THE FA BY 0Z AND AGREES WELL WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.            
NOT A LOT OF SFC INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BUT THERE IS WILL BE ELEVATED            
INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. WITH 50+KT LLJ MVING ACRS THE AREA AFTER               
18Z AND INVERSION ERODING SHUD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS TO MIX            
DOWN TO THE SFC WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. MOST OF THE FA             
IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUE                        
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.              
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OF ADVISORY              
CRITERIA WILL JUST AFTER FROPA...WHICH WOULD PUT THEM STARTING UP               
ACRS THE FA AFTER 21Z AND PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 0Z. BUFKIT GUSTS              
DURING THIS TIME ARE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH             
OTHER OFFICES AND NOTING THIS WOULD BE IN THE THIRD PERIOD HAVE                 
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ISSUANCE OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NEXT FCST                   
PACKAGE...BUT DEFINITELY THINK ONE WILL BE NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY                
NIGHT.                                                                          
TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED STRONG WINDS ABOVE. COLD FNT             
WILL FINISH MVING ACRS THE AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER OVR AT                 
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU 3Z. BRING POPS DOWN FROM W TO E             
IN 3 HR INCREMENTS AND SHUD SEE CHANGE OVR TO SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS            
BEFORE WED MORNING BUT THE SNOW SHUD BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE                 
ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD FNT SHUD SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE.               
BOTH MODELS SHOW COLD AIR PLUNGING DOWN AFTER FROPA BUT NAM SEEMS A             
LITTLE OVERZEALOUS WITH ITS H8 TEMPS AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL            
DROPPING THINGS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BASED ON WHAT LOW TEMPS ARE              
LIKE IN THE NRN PLAINS RIGHT NOW.                                               
WED AND WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE BLDS IN AND THINGS ARE DRY. WED WL BE            
COLD BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD AIR SPILLING DOWN SO              
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S. WED NT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND              
TO THE S BUT WITH NOT MUCH CLOUD CVR EVEN WITH THE WAA WL STILL SEE             
LOWS IN THE TEENS.                                                              
EXTENDED...EXTENDED EMPHASIS IS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM.                
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FCST TRACK OF SFC LOW THU                   
NT/FRI. ECMWF MVS THE LOW THRU IL AND KEEPS THE FA IN ALL RAIN WITH             
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW. GFS TRACKS THE LOW ALONG THE              
OH RVR AND HAS NRN AND CENTRAL FA ALL SNOW WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR              
ICE IN THE S. WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT GO OUT QUITE FAR ENUF                      
YET...IT/S SFC LOW HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER S. WITH SYSTEMS THUS               
FAR THIS WINTER THE NAM AND GFS HAVE HAD A BIAS TOWARD THE SE WITH              
THEIR SFC LOWS AND GIVEN THAT AM MORE INCLINED TO LEAN ON THE WARMER            
NW SOLN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THE CURRENT DISAGREEMENT THO AM NOT GOING            
TO PULL THE SNOW...INSTEAD WILL INCLUDE A MIX FOR MOST OF THE STORM             
AND WL TRY TO NAIL DOWN A LITTLE BETTER AS /HOPEFULLY/ MODELS COME              
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.                                                          
A WEAK FNT WL MV THRU ON SAT NT/SUN BUT ASSOC FORCING STAYS WELL N              
OF THE AREA SO WL KEEP A DRY FCST. MON A WARM FNT WL APPROACH FROM              
THE S AND SO HAVE BROUGHT IN CHC POPS. TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE SO WL               
INCLUDE A RAIN SNOW MIX.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS 7PM TUE              
TO 7AM WED.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JOHNSON                                                              
UPDATE...CS                                                                     
PUBLIC...CP                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
842 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...00Z H85 ANALYSIS SHOWING A LARGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR                  
PLUNGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE 02Z              
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS                   
ALREADY APPROACHING THE I-80 CORRIDOR. GIVEN SUCH COLD                          
TEMPERATURES (-32C AT KGGW AT H85) AND RAPID TEMPERATURE DROPS                  
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL TREND LOWS               
DOWN TONIGHT. THE COLD AIRMASS APPEARS TO HAVE A FAVORABLE                      
TRAJECTORY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE              
OF MODIFICATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE MIXING                
WILL BE MORE LIKELY. WILL LOWER HIGHS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES              
WHERE REACHING 20 MAY BE A STRUGGLE ON TUESDAY. A SECONDARY                     
CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILL READINGS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE                
DAY ON TUESDAY.                                                                 
LITTLE CHANGES IN POP ORIENTATION EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SNOW                  
SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE                 
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. DID RAISE POPS INTO THE MID RANGE WEIGHTED               
IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS                  
JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN                   
09-13Z. WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES ALSO APPEAR ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGE             
PLANNED.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
.AVIATION...LATEST METARS INDICATE SOUTHWEST WIND DECREASING LATE               
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE LULL BEFORE                
WIND INCREASES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT AROUND 08-09Z.                 
NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 30+ KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z                
WED. MID CLOUDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME LOWER CIGS AT               
KMCK. BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD AND KMCK INDICATE THAT THERE              
IS A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SLIGHTLY REDUCED                     
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 09-12Z TUE. SOME MVFR                        
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.              
OTHERWISE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AFTER 15Z TUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE TWO SHORT WAVE                
TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF THE CWA. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL                 
COLORADO AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA.             
ANOTHER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO NEVADA AND UTAH AND                
WILL BE PRIMARY WX MAKER TONIGHT/TOMORROW.                                      
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN/DECOUPLE DURING THE EVENING              
AS DEEP MIXING COMES TO AN END...AND WILL LET CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS                
CONTINUE. MAIN CONCERNS AFTER THAT WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS GET                 
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEATHER OR NOT ANY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AS            
WELL. NAM/GFS/GEM ALL SUPPORT PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS               
THE CWA AFTER 06Z. POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE            
INCREASE TO OVER 40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT            
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE            
FRONT. ALTHOUGH TIME OF NIGHT IS NOT NORMALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG              
WIND...MINIMAL INVERSION COUPLED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND CAA             
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. GFS              
ACTUALLY COMES CLOSE TO LOW END WARNING CRITERIA...BUT OTHER MODELS             
ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THINK AN ADVISORY WILL BE THE WAY TO GO                    
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING.                  
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN FALL AS FRONT                    
PASSES...WHICH WILL MAY CAUSE EVEN MORE PROBLEMS WITH THE WIND.                 
GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM              
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION BEHIND FRONT DURING                
THE MORNING HOURS. CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE FRONTAL SURFACE SHOWS             
A POCKET OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE...WITH             
ENVIRONMENT NEARLY SATURATED. FRONTOGENESIS AT H7...H65 ALSO LINE UP            
WELL WITH H7-H5 AND H5-H3 DIV Q FORCING FOR ASCENT. ONLY CONCERN IS             
IF SATURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING SHOULD MOVE BY FAIRLY                 
QUICKLY...AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL                 
DRYING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS SYSTEM. OBSERVED LAPSE              
RATES...AND OBSERVED NATURE OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA                         
CURRENTLY...SUGGEST STABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW. IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP               
WITH THE WIND...WILL LIKELY NEED SOME KIND OF SNOW/BLSN                         
HIGHLIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL REMAINS BELOW                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. WILL UP POPS OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDE             
BLSN IN FORECAST BUT FOR NOW WILL LIKELY GO WITH JUST A WIND                    
ADVISORY.                                                                       
TOMORROW NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE            
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF TUESDAY EVENING LEADING            
TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN            
FAIRLY QUICKLY HOWEVER AS H7 TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND            
12Z WED. FAIRLY STRONG WAA INDICATED AT H7 AS WELL. POINT SOUNDINGS             
INDICATE A VERY THICK...DRY LAYER BELOW THIS REGION AND WITH FAIRLY             
HIGH STABILITY DO NOT THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE               
GROUND BY 12Z WED. MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED              
BY Q VECTOR FIELDS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE                    
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FORCING DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR THAT             
FOCUSED...AND GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS IS DRIER AND FURTHER                  
SOUTH. AM GOING TO TRIM BACK POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR THE TIME                     
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD ON TO SOME LOW               
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.                          
THURS-SATURDAY...OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER IN BOTH                  
POSITION AND SPEED OF H5 TROUGH...AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS SLOWER MORE             
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TAKING THE SLOWER/MORE                  
SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST GLANCES THE            
CWA...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NOT            
TO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL                   
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY SHOULD BE THE                
NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION. OTHER CONCERN THROUGH THE            
PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS...WITH BIGGEST CONCERN BEING HOW MUCH OF A WARM            
UP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS/ECMWF AND GFS             
ENS MEAN WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY WARM TEMPS DEVELOPING...AND THIS                  
SOLUTION LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT GOING TOO            
WARM AS THIS AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE OVER CWA ONLY A BRIEF TIME BEFORE            
NEXT FRONT COMES THROUGH...AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS FRONT                 
COULD HAMPER WARM UP.                                                           
SUNDAY & MONDAY...H5 LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS                 
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ON                
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD                
FRONT.  IF THE FRONT PICKS UP MOMENTUM THAN MONDAYS HIGH                        
TEMPERATURES MY NEED ADJUSTED DOWN...AS A DECENT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR             
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT COMES IN             
AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS MONDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN                       
SEASONABLE-UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LATEST METARS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KGLD INDICATE                    
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 30+ KT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT SAME                
WIND SPEEDS AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT             
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 30+ KTS TONIGHT WITH                   
FRONTAL PASSAGE (AROUND 08-09Z) AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TUE. MID               
CLOUD WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME SCATTERED LOWER                  
CLOUDS AT KMCK. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT              
BOTH SITES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-          
     013.                                                                       
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ TO 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/            
     TUESDAY FOR KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.                                    
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.          
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090-091.                      
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ092.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
451 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...LATEST METARS INDICATE SOUTHWEST WIND DECREASING LATE               
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE LULL BEFORE                
WIND INCREASES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT AROUND 08-09Z.                 
NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 30+ KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z                
WED. MID CLOUDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME LOWER CIGS AT               
KMCK. BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD AND KMCK INDICATE THAT THERE              
IS A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SLIGHTLY REDUCED                     
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 09-12Z TUE. SOME MVFR                        
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.              
OTHERWISE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AFTER 15Z TUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE TWO SHORT WAVE                
TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF THE CWA. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL                 
COLORADO AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA.             
ANOTHER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO NEVADA AND UTAH AND                
WILL BE PRIMARY WX MAKER TONIGHT/TOMORROW.                                      
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN/DECOUPLE DURING THE EVENING              
AS DEEP MIXING COMES TO AN END...AND WILL LET CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS                
CONTINUE. MAIN CONCERNS AFTER THAT WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS GET                 
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEATHER OR NOT ANY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AS            
WELL. NAM/GFS/GEM ALL SUPPORT PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS               
THE CWA AFTER 06Z. POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE            
INCREASE TO OVER 40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT            
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE            
FRONT. ALTHOUGH TIME OF NIGHT IS NOT NORMALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG              
WIND...MINIMAL INVERSION COUPLED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND CAA             
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. GFS              
ACTUALLY COMES CLOSE TO LOW END WARNING CRITERIA...BUT OTHER MODELS             
ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THINK AN ADVISORY WILL BE THE WAY TO GO                    
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING.                  
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN FALL AS FRONT                    
PASSES...WHICH WILL MAY CAUSE EVEN MORE PROBLEMS WITH THE WIND.                 
GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM              
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION BEHIND FRONT DURING                
THE MORNING HOURS. CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE FRONTAL SURFACE SHOWS             
A POCKET OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE...WITH             
ENVIRONMENT NEARLY SATURATED. FRONTOGENESIS AT H7...H65 ALSO LINE UP            
WELL WITH H7-H5 AND H5-H3 DIV Q FORCING FOR ASCENT. ONLY CONCERN IS             
IF SATURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING SHOULD MOVE BY FAIRLY                 
QUICKLY...AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL                 
DRYING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS SYSTEM. OBSERVED LAPSE              
RATES...AND OBSERVED NATURE OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA                         
CURRENTLY...SUGGEST STABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW. IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP               
WITH THE WIND...WILL LIKELY NEED SOME KIND OF SNOW/BLSN                         
HIGHLIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL REMAINS BELOW                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. WILL UP POPS OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDE             
BLSN IN FORECAST BUT FOR NOW WILL LIKELY GO WITH JUST A WIND                    
ADVISORY.                                                                       
TOMORROW NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE            
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF TUESDAY EVENING LEADING            
TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN            
FAIRLY QUICKLY HOWEVER AS H7 TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND            
12Z WED. FAIRLY STRONG WAA INDICATED AT H7 AS WELL. POINT SOUNDINGS             
INDICATE A VERY THICK...DRY LAYER BELOW THIS REGION AND WITH FAIRLY             
HIGH STABILITY DO NOT THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE               
GROUND BY 12Z WED. MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED              
BY Q VECTOR FIELDS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE                    
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FORCING DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR THAT             
FOCUSED...AND GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS IS DRIER AND FURTHER                  
SOUTH. AM GOING TO TRIM BACK POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR THE TIME                     
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD ON TO SOME LOW               
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.                          
THURS-SATURDAY...OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER IN BOTH                  
POSITION AND SPEED OF H5 TROUGH...AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS SLOWER MORE             
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TAKING THE SLOWER/MORE                  
SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST GLANCES THE            
CWA...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NOT            
TO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL                   
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY SHOULD BE THE                
NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION. OTHER CONCERN THROUGH THE            
PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS...WITH BIGGEST CONCERN BEING HOW MUCH OF A WARM            
UP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS/ECMWF AND GFS             
ENS MEAN WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY WARM TEMPS DEVELOPING...AND THIS                  
SOLUTION LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT GOING TOO            
WARM AS THIS AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE OVER CWA ONLY A BRIEF TIME BEFORE            
NEXT FRONT COMES THROUGH...AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS FRONT                 
COULD HAMPER WARM UP.                                                           
SUNDAY & MONDAY...H5 LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS                 
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ON                
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD                
FRONT.  IF THE FRONT PICKS UP MOMENTUM THAN MONDAYS HIGH                        
TEMPERATURES MY NEED ADJUSTED DOWN...AS A DECENT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR             
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT COMES IN             
AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS MONDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN                       
SEASONABLE-UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LATEST METARS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KGLD INDICATE                    
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 30+ KT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT SAME                
WIND SPEEDS AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT             
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 30+ KTS TONIGHT WITH                   
FRONTAL PASSAGE (AROUND 08-09Z) AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TUE. MID               
CLOUD WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME SCATTERED LOWER                  
CLOUDS AT KMCK. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT              
BOTH SITES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11             
     AM MST /12 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013.                             
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
     KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.                                                
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.                                                
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ TO 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/            
     TUESDAY FOR KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.                                    
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11             
     AM MST /12 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.                                 
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR             
     COZ090-091.                                                                
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.             
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ091-092.                
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ092.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/KJ/FS                                                                       
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
211 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE TWO SHORT WAVE                
TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF THE CWA. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL                 
COLORADO AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA.             
ANOTHER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO NEVADA AND UTAH AND                
WILL BE PRIMARY WX MAKER TONIGHT/TOMORROW.                                      
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN/DECOUPLE DURING THE EVENING              
AS DEEP MIXING COMES TO AN END...AND WILL LET CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS                
CONTINUE. MAIN CONCERNS AFTER THAT WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS GET                 
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEATHER OR NOT ANY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AS            
WELL. NAM/GFS/GEM ALL SUPPORT PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS               
THE CWA AFTER 06Z. POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE            
INCREASE TO OVER 40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT            
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE            
FRONT. ALTHOUGH TIME OF NIGHT IS NOT NORMALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG              
WIND...MINIMAL INVERSION COUPLED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND CAA             
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. GFS              
ACTUALLY COMES CLOSE TO LOW END WARNING CRITERIA...BUT OTHER MODELS             
ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THINK AN ADVISORY WILL BE THE WAY TO GO                    
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING.                  
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN FALL AS FRONT                    
PASSES...WHICH WILL MAY CAUSE EVEN MORE PROBLEMS WITH THE WIND.                 
GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM              
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION BEHIND FRONT DURING                
THE MORNING HOURS. CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE FRONTAL SURFACE SHOWS             
A POCKET OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE...WITH             
ENVIRONMENT NEARLY SATURATED. FRONTOGENESIS AT H7...H65 ALSO LINE UP            
WELL WITH H7-H5 AND H5-H3 DIV Q FORCING FOR ASCENT. ONLY CONCERN IS             
IF SATURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING SHOULD MOVE BY FAIRLY                 
QUICKLY...AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL                 
DRYING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS SYSTEM. OBSERVED LAPSE              
RATES...AND OBSERVED NATURE OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA                         
CURRENTLY...SUGGEST STABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW. IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP               
WITH THE WIND...WILL LIKELY NEED SOME KIND OF SNOW/BLSN                         
HIGHLIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL REMAINS BELOW                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. WILL UP POPS OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDE             
BLSN IN FORECAST BUT FOR NOW WILL LIKELY GO WITH JUST A WIND                    
ADVISORY.                                                                       
TOMORROW NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE            
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF TUESDAY EVENING LEADING            
TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN            
FAIRLY QUICKLY HOWEVER AS H7 TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND            
12Z WED. FAIRLY STRONG WAA INDICATED AT H7 AS WELL. POINT SOUNDINGS             
INDICATE A VERY THICK...DRY LAYER BELOW THIS REGION AND WITH FAIRLY             
HIGH STABILITY DO NOT THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE               
GROUND BY 12Z WED. MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED              
BY Q VECTOR FIELDS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE                    
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FORCING DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR THAT             
FOCUSED...AND GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS IS DRIER AND FURTHER                  
SOUTH. AM GOING TO TRIM BACK POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR THE TIME                     
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD ON TO SOME LOW               
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.                          
THURS-SATURDAY...OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER IN BOTH                  
POSITION AND SPEED OF H5 TROUGH...AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS SLOWER MORE             
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TAKING THE SLOWER/MORE                  
SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST GLANCES THE            
CWA...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NOT            
TO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL                   
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY SHOULD BE THE                
NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION. OTHER CONCERN THROUGH THE            
PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS...WITH BIGGEST CONCERN BEING HOW MUCH OF A WARM            
UP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS/ECMWF AND GFS             
ENS MEAN WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY WARM TEMPS DEVELOPING...AND THIS                  
SOLUTION LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT GOING TOO            
WARM AS THIS AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE OVER CWA ONLY A BRIEF TIME BEFORE            
NEXT FRONT COMES THROUGH...AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS FRONT                 
COULD HAMPER WARM UP.                                                           
SUNDAY & MONDAY...H5 LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS                 
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ON                
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD                
FRONT.  IF THE FRONT PICKS UP MOMENTUM THAN MONDAYS HIGH                        
TEMPERATURES MY NEED ADJUSTED DOWN...AS A DECENT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR             
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT COMES IN             
AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS MONDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN                       
SEASONABLE-UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LATEST METARS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KGLD INDICATE                    
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 30+ KT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT SAME                
WIND SPEEDS AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT             
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 30+ KTS TONIGHT WITH                   
FRONTAL PASSAGE (AROUND 08-09Z) AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TUE. MID               
CLOUD WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME SCATTERED LOWER                  
CLOUDS AT KMCK. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT              
BOTH SITES.                                                                     
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11             
     AM MST /12 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013.                             
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
     KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.                                                
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.                                                
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ TO 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/            
     TUESDAY FOR KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.                                    
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11             
     AM MST /12 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.                                 
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR             
     COZ090-091.                                                                
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.             
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ091-092.                
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ092.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/FS/KJ                                                                       
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
248 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,              
WITH A 140 KT JET ON THE FRONT SIDE OF IT AND 500MB TEMPS DOWN IN               
THE -30S C OVER THE PAC NW. 500MB CHART ALSO HAD 140 M HEIGHT                   
FALLS OVER THE ROCKIES, AND WV LOOP SHOWS A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE                 
EJECTING OUT TOWARDS THE PLAINS. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH THE SFC                   
TROUGH AXIS/WEAK PACIFIC FRONT OUT INTO THE CWA. THE TRUE COLD AIR              
IS STILL UP OVER MT, WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE -20S C. LATEST 19Z                 
SFC OBS HAVE THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER SD, WITH 54 F REPORTED AT              
RAP, WHILE READINGS AROUND AROUND 11 F IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF                 
THE STATE AND BELOW ZERO BACK IN MT.                                            
THE STRONG WINDS WE HAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO TAPER OFF                 
FOR A BIT TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE                   
PLAINS AND THE SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER KS. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM               
SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN COMPARISON TO                   
OBSERVATIONS, WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A BIT FAST. FRONT SHOULD                      
PROBABLY COME BLASTING THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z,                     
POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING. STRONG                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH BOTH THE NAM AND               
RUC SHOWING AREAS OF 25-30KTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO SHOW OVER                
40 PERCENT FOR SFC WINDS GREATER THAN 25 KTS. MAY HAVE TO HOLD OFF              
ON ISSUANCE UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR VTEC COMPLICATIONS, BUT EXPECT               
THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN                
12 AND 18Z. THE MODELS ALL HAVE GOOD DYNAMIC LIFT AS THE UPPER                  
SYSTEM COMES OUT INTO THE PLAINS, AND THE NAM HAS SOME DECENT                   
700MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LAYER BECOMING MORE               
SATURATED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, THINK THAT              
AS FAST AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT AND NOT              
A LOT OF ACCUMULATION. KEPT THE 20 POPS WE HAD GOING, WITH LESS                 
THAN A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED.                                                   
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY, WITH FLOW                
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH              
SHOULD START TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT              
SHOULD BRING DOWN ARCTIC AIR INTO THE PLAINS, BUT WITH THE                      
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THAT COLD AIR SHOULD QUICKLY BE                
SHUNTED EAST. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEE                 
TROUGHING WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS, WITH QUIET AND               
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.                                                           
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY UP FOR A WHILE BUT                  
THEN DROP OFF AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. CONTINUED WITH READINGS               
IN THE 20S. LOWERED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY A BIT, PARTICULARLY IN THE                
NORTHEAST WHERE 850MB TEMPS WILL GET DOWN WELL BELOW ZERO. BEST                 
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST, BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE                    
ENOUGH TO DROP HIGHS IN THE 30S. CLEARING SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT                
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, AND LOWS SHOULD                  
HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE DROPPING OFF INTO THE TEENS. HIGHS ON                       
WEDNESDAY SHOULD RETURN TO THE 40S AND EVEN AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH              
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HELP BRING 850MB                
TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE ZERO C.                                                     
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE LINING UP FROM THE WESTERN            
CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC EARLIER TODAY. OUR NEXT MORE                    
SIGNIFICANT S/W TROF IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BY ALL THE MODELS TO MOVE             
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO NM...THEN WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY            
EARLY THURSDAY. AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS A COLD FRONT               
WILL CROSS WESTERN KS LATE WED. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOISTURE DOES                
RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS TX INTO OK BUT IT APPEARS THE AREA WHO WILL             
HAVE THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR FAR E/SE.               
MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH 85H-7H FGEN DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST OF             
OUR SFC LOW SUPPORTS AT LEAST KEEPING CHC POPS GOING IN THE EAST.               
DID HOWEVER RAISE CHC POPS TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA LATE            
WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE LIFT PROGGED FROM THE FGEN               
AND APPROACHING VORT LOBE. LEFT SLT CHC POPS GOING IN THE WEST GIVEN            
THE MEAN RH AND UPSLOPE FLOW BUT AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC WEST OF GCK              
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND             
ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 40S WITH SOME               
50S POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM            
THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS THIS TIME ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TRACK AND               
TIMING BUT ALL DO SEEM TO HINT AT A DECENT PERIOD OF TIME FOR                   
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS A RESULT DID BUMP UP                 
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS 30 TO 40F DEWPTS RETURN TO THE AREA AND WINDS             
REMAIN UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING                 
PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALSO INSERTED SOME SMALL                
POPS IN ON MONDAY BUT TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR PCPN THAT FAR OUT.            
-BURGERT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARDS SUNSET BUT                  
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.            
MAIN CHALLENGE TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.               
MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING WITH THE GFS SEEMING MORE OF A COMPROMISE            
BETWEEN THE SLOWER NAM AND FASTER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH EITHER             
WAY SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS ON TIMING OF FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT            
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS OVER SW KS AFTER FROPA SO LOOK FOR ANOTHER VERY             
WINDY DAY AS NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  27  37  17  47 /   0  20   0   0                                           
GCK  24  37  16  46 /   0  20   0   0                                           
EHA  27  42  19  51 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  27  39  19  51 /   0  20   0   0                                           
HYS  24  31  13  42 /   0  20   0   0                                           
P28  33  39  19  49 /   0  20   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.                                         
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                      
KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN26/18/18                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1015 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DENSE MID LEVEL OVERCAST IS HINDERING TEMPERATURE RISES TODAY.                  
UPSTREAM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MID MORNING.               
THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL            
KEEP TEMPS COOLER. USED 12Z RUC AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE. 09Z SREF 2                 
METER TEMPS WERE EVEN COOLER. ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE                
NORTH WHERE RADAR SHOWED QUITE A CONCENTRATION OF 20 TO 30 DBZ                  
RETURNS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /235 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008/...                            
LATEST SFC MAPS INDICATE A HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH                   
APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE EASTWARD AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS JUST              
EAST OF THE ROCKIES.                                                            
PESKY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL JUST NOT LEAVE US ALONE. SHORTLY BEFORE               
03Z...LOW CLOUDS BEGAN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND                   
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. OTHER THAN THAT...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS                     
SPILLING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.                                           
FOR TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD              
THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW OUT OF SOUTH BUT                   
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE                  
LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. AS WE WAIT FOR              
THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL                             
PLAINS...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN ACROSS THE                
AREA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WARMING WE WILL SEE GIVEN ALL THESE CLOUDS.             
THE GFS IS STILL HINTING AT A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION                
ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS             
TO BE DUE TO SOME MINOR SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE                         
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM FAILS TO INDICATE ANY QPF BUT THE             
ECMWF DOES HINT AT A LITTLE SOMETHING. STILL THINK IT IS TOO SMALL A            
CHANCE TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. THE ONE THING THAT MAKES ME                    
WARY...IS THE STRONG LLJ THAT DEVELOPS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN                    
COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY. THIS COULD AID IN SOME                       
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SINCE MODELS DO NOT SEE THE CURRENT LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.                      
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TONIGHT...AS A                         
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION...AND WE GET INTO THE                  
WARM SECTOR. THE ENERGY SEEMS TO BE CHANNELED WITHIN THE UPPER                  
FLOW AND THE SHORTWAVE DOES WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE AREA. QPF                  
AMTS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE                      
INCREASE. ACTUALLY...LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHTS...IF ANY                       
PRECIPITATION WERE GOING TO DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF                 
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS SEEM HIGH GIVEN QPF VALUES                  
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY SPLIT TONIGHTS POP/WX GRID SO                  
THAT WE ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER POPS               
AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                                 
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING               
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE                  
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 18Z                       
TUESDAY...AND THEN SWIFTLY BARRELS ON THROUGH...EXITING THE AREA                
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO                 
NOT COINCIDE WITH THE FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WOULD               
SEEM THAT WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL HAVE THE BEST                
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. PARAMETERS STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR                          
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL JUST LEAVE WHAT IS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN               
THE FORECAST. WIND FIELDS IMPRESSIVE WITH 50 KTS AT H85...100 KTS               
AT H50 AND 130-140 KTS AT H30. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP                
STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH SFC DEWS REACHING                
NEAR 50 IN SOME PLACES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY                   
STILL LACKING...SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS                   
TIME.                                                                           
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE TUESDAY EVENING AS WINDS                   
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY STRONG. MOS GUIDANCE AT                  
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE AREA SHOW 25 TO 27 KTS BTWN 00-03Z                     
WED...WHICH IS THE HIGHEST I HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. WILL BE QUITE A              
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE              
FEW HOURS. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND                  
POSSIBLY A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.                                           
STILL UNSURE OF THE CHANGEOVER TO FLURRIES OR FREEZING                          
DRIZZLE TUESDAY EARLY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT PUSHES                     
THROUGH SO QUICKLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BEFORE               
THE COLDER AIR REACHES US. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THAT              
COLD AIR GETS HERE. THE NAM IS QUICKER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE                 
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EVV TRI STATE                    
REGION AND PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY BY 00Z WED...WHILE                 
THE GFS IS STILL MUCH WARMER AT THAT TIME. WILL NOT STRAY TOO MUCH              
FROM GOING WEATHER GRID AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY END PRECIP SOONER                
WEST OF THE LAKES AND ALSO IN ILLINOIS.                                         
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...VERY COLD AIR COMES IN WITH A VENGEANCE                   
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH H85 TEMPS BTWN -8 AND -12 DEG C BY 06Z                   
WED...AFTER THEY WERE BTWN 8 TO 10 DEG ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY                       
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR DOES NOT STICK AROUND              
LONG...AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON                        
WEDNESDAY. ACTUALLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACTUALLY STARTS UP LATE                
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.                                            
00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY IS GOING               
TO BE WET...THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW DOES DIFFER. STILL              
LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY HAVE THE BEST                   
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP ON THURSDAY GIVEN BOTH MODEL SOLUTION.                    
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...IF GETS IFFY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL                  
HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WILL NOT GET TOO CRAZY                 
WITH POPS BUT AT LEAST WILL INCREASE THEM IN AREAS WE ARE MORE                  
CONFIDENT. LOOKS LIKE ALL LIQUID ESPECIALLY SOUTH. FURTHER                      
NORTH...IT COULD BE EVEN FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON HOW SFC TEMPS               
WORK OUT. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS INDICATES COLD AIR                    
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT SKIRTS NORTHEAST OVER THE                
AREA. THEREFORE...WE COULD SEE RAIN OR SNOW IN OUR WESTERN                      
COUNTIES...WITH RAIN IN THE EAST. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE                
THIS HANDLED FINE.                                                              
MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS EVOLUTION OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE             
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE OF                  
ABSOLUTELY NO HELP THIS MORNING...BUT GENERALLY FEEL THAT IT WILL               
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND POSSIBLY EAST               
SOME INTO THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT                
REACH KEVV...KOWB OR KHOP. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE             
IN THOSE AREAS. THE LIFR CLOUDS ARE VERY SHALLOW AND...WITH GOOD                
MIXING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE                  
RAPIDLY BY 15-16Z. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG                
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KTS.                                                  
THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE            
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY OVERNIGHT...THE GUSTY SOUTH            
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A             
PASSING LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...CW                                                                   
AVIATION...DRS                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1209 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                     
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...                                                         
SKIES HAVE BECOME SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT IN               
THE SOUTHEAST...BUT CLOUDS THERE ARE BREAKING UP TOO AND THE BULK OF            
THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THERE AS WELL. A FEW SLIGHT            
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT DATA AND                        
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.                             
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...                                                        
PESKY STRATUS HAS BEEN SWELLING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW                     
SATELLITE FRAMES INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.            
A FEW BREAKS HAVE BEEN FOUND OVER THE BLUE GRASS BUT THEY HAVE                  
GENERALLY BEEN TRANSIENT. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE                
GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS DO LOOK RATHER THIN THOUGH AND             
THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN GETS TO WORK ON THEM             
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS CERTAINLY LOW STRATUS(HOW               
LONG IT WILL LINGER OVER OUR FA THIS MORNING) AND ITS AFFECT ON                 
TEMPS.                                                                          
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS WITH A SLOW SEWD DRIFT AS WINDS AT              
THAT LEVEL BECOME LIGHT NW. A WEAK TROF IS MOVG SEWD OVER SCNTRL                
INDIANA ATTM AND SHUD BE THROUGH OUR FA BY SUNRISE WITH SOMEWHAT                
DRIER AIR(LOWER DEWPOINTS) BEHIND IT. HIGH RESOLUTION NAM APPEARS TO            
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON MOVEMENT OF CLOUDS BASED ON ITS FORECAST OF             
975 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS...WHEREAS THE RUC IS SLOWER MOVG             
CLOUDS OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MOST OF SOUTHERN INDIANA IS CLEAR ATTM                
WITH SCT TO BKN STRATUS NEAR THE OH RIVER. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS             
FOG/ADDITIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT. WILL                
MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON CLOUD TERM TODAY BASED ON SATELLITE              
TRENDS. OF COURSE...CLOUDS WILL AFFECT TEMPS TDA...MOS GUIDANCE IS              
CLEAR FOR LOUISVILLE AT 12Z WHILE KEEPING CLOUDS AT LEXINGTON INTO              
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                   
ONCE STRATUS DEPARTS THIS MORNING...WE SHUD BE CLR OR MOSTLY CLR THE            
REST OF TDA AND TONIGHT AS PLAINS UPR LEVEL RIDGE REACHES THE OH VLY            
BY 12Z MON AND SFC HIGH (SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY ATTM) EXTENDS NEWD               
INTO THE TN/LWR OH VLYS TDA AND CONTS SLOWLY EWD TNGT.                          
WITH WLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT LEAST              
INTO THE 40S OVER OUR WRN FA AS THEY DID ACRS MO AND SRN IL SAT.                
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                     
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START OFF FAIRLY TRANQUIL AT THE BEGINNING OF               
THIS FCST PD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE             
ATLANTIC.  CREST OF H5 RIDGE IS FCST TO DRIFT OVERHEAD AS                       
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  CLOUDS               
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING                
OVERCAST BY EVENING.  DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE               
HIGH WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS                   
REACHING THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE                  
SOUTH.  BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS FCST TO EJECT EAST             
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP             
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY INCR LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING FROM THE SW                  
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  THUS...AM                 
GOING TO KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  STRONG               
WIND FIELDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOW TO              
MID 40S.                                                                        
BY TUESDAY...DEEPENING AND POTENT H5 WAVE ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE              
GREAT LAKES.  SFC CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES WITH A VERY STRONG AND SHARP COLD FRONT HEADING EAST INTO THE             
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  SURGE OF GULF AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO            
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO             
START FIRING WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  TIME-HEIGHT             
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR WILL INITIALLY KEEP              
INSTABILITY DOWN. HOWEVER...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND FORCED ASCENT             
ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION              
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.  WHILE BULK SHEAR IS STRONG FOR                   
POSSIBLE SVR CONVECTION...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL REVOLVES AROUND               
THE FCST INSTABILITY.  ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE                
WATCHED CLOSELY AS H85 WINDS OF 55-60KTS MAY BE ABLE TO WORK DOWN               
WITHIN THE STORMS AND PRESENT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.                           
STRONG FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z WED                
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS TUE WILL LIKELY             
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING               
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  IN FACT...COLD SURGE MAY BE QUICK ENOUGH TO             
SEE SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.  OVERALL                      
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT...GIVEN CURRENT                  
FORECAST DATA.  THOUGH SOMETHING TO WATCH HOWEVER.  QUICK CLEARING              
TREND LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE EARLY WED WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR            
BY SUNRISE.  MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE              
MID 30S IN THE NORTH FOR WED WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE            
SOUTH.                                                                          
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                             
A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE WX PATTERN LOOKS IN THE OFFING FOR WED               
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS.  SFC HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S. DURING THE PD                   
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT LOOK TO DROP            
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE               
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON THU AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM GATHERS                   
STRENGTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A GRADIENT OF TEMPS LOOKS GOOD            
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH WITH MID TO               
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHERN KY.                         
THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER                
WITH THE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WEATHER SYSTEM.  WHILE EARLIER RUNS OF            
THESE MODELS HINTED MORE AT A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM TYPE EVENT...THE            
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE STRONG NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF AIR            
AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR              
THE REGION.                                                                     
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS EJECT A DEEP H5 LOW INTO THE                    
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THU AND EARLY FRIDAY.  BOTH MODELS SHOW             
THE TROF TAKING ON A NEG TILT WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER MOVEMENT AND            
THE ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND                 
WEST.  IN FACT...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW GOING RIGHT THROUGH               
THE STATE.  GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA...WE HAVE                 
DECIDED TO REMOVE THE R/S MIX AT THIS TIME AND GO WITH SIMPLY PURE              
RAIN.  RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THU NIGHT AND DURING THE               
DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS             
SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA...WITH THE EURO SHOWING              
SIMILAR AMOUNTS.  THIS QPF WOULD LIKELY BE EXCESSIVE FOR THE                    
AREA...AND HYDRO ISSUES COULD BE THE END RESULT.  SOMETHING TO WATCH            
IN THE COMING DAYS. LOWS THU MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO               
UPPER 30S WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY ON               
FRIDAY.  GENERALLY TRENDED TEMPS CLOSER TO THE 2M RAW NUMBERS HERE              
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.                                   
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FCST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                         
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE             
GULF STATES WITH RIDGING REACHING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. WEST WINDS             
NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN COME OUT OF THE               
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW.                                         
&&                                                                              
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...13                                                                 
LONG TERM....MJ                                                                 
AVIATION.....13                                                                 
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
741 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...                                                        
PESKY STRATUS HAS BEEN SWELLING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW                     
SATELLITE FRAMES INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.            
A FEW BREAKS HAVE BEEN FOUND OVER THE BLUE GRASS BUT THEY HAVE                  
GENERALLY BEEN TRANSIENT. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE                
GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS DO LOOK RATHER THIN THOUGH AND             
THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN GETS TO WORK ON THEM             
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS CERTAINLY LOW STRATUS(HOW               
LONG IT WILL LINGER OVER OUR FA THIS MORNING) AND ITS AFFECT ON                 
TEMPS.                                                                          
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS WITH A SLOW SEWD DRIFT AS WINDS AT              
THAT LEVEL BECOME LIGHT NW. A WEAK TROF IS MOVG SEWD OVER SCNTRL                
INDIANA ATTM AND SHUD BE THROUGH OUR FA BY SUNRISE WITH SOMEWHAT                
DRIER AIR(LOWER DEWPOINTS) BEHIND IT. HIGH RESOLUTION NAM APPEARS TO            
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON MOVEMENT OF CLOUDS BASED ON ITS FORECAST OF             
975 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS...WHEREAS THE RUC IS SLOWER MOVG             
CLOUDS OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MOST OF SOUTHERN INDIANA IS CLEAR ATTM                
WITH SCT TO BKN STRATUS NEAR THE OH RIVER. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS             
FOG/ADDITIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT. WILL                
MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON CLOUD TERM TODAY BASED ON SATELLITE              
TRENDS. OF COURSE...CLOUDS WILL AFFECT TEMPS TDA...MOS GUIDANCE IS              
CLEAR FOR LOUISVILLE AT 12Z WHILE KEEPING CLOUDS AT LEXINGTON INTO              
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                   
ONCE STRATUS DEPARTS THIS MORNING...WE SHUD BE CLR OR MOSTLY CLR THE            
REST OF TDA AND TONIGHT AS PLAINS UPR LEVEL RIDGE REACHES THE OH VLY            
BY 12Z MON AND SFC HIGH (SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY ATTM) EXTENDS NEWD               
INTO THE TN/LWR OH VLYS TDA AND CONTS SLOWLY EWD TNGT.                          
WITH WLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT LEAST              
INTO THE 40S OVER OUR WRN FA AS THEY DID ACRS MO AND SRN IL SAT.                
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                     
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START OFF FAIRLY TRANQUIL AT THE BEGINNING OF               
THIS FCST PD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE             
ATLANTIC.  CREST OF H5 RIDGE IS FCST TO DRIFT OVERHEAD AS                       
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  CLOUDS               
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING                
OVERCAST BY EVENING.  DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE               
HIGH WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS                   
REACHING THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE                  
SOUTH.  BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS FCST TO EJECT EAST             
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP             
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY INCR LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING FROM THE SW                  
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  THUS...AM                 
GOING TO KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  STRONG               
WIND FIELDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOW TO              
MID 40S.                                                                        
BY TUESDAY...DEEPENING AND POTENT H5 WAVE ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE              
GREAT LAKES.  SFC CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES WITH A VERY STRONG AND SHARP COLD FRONT HEADING EAST INTO THE             
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  SURGE OF GULF AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO            
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO             
START FIRING WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  TIME-HEIGHT             
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR WILL INITIALLY KEEP              
INSTABILITY DOWN. HOWEVER...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND FORCED ASCENT             
ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION              
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.  WHILE BULK SHEAR IS STRONG FOR                   
POSSIBLE SVR CONVECTION...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL REVOLVES AROUND               
THE FCST INSTABILITY.  ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE                
WATCHED CLOSELY AS H85 WINDS OF 55-60KTS MAY BE ABLE TO WORK DOWN               
WITHIN THE STORMS AND PRESENT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.                           
STRONG FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z WED                
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS TUE WILL LIKELY             
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING               
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  IN FACT...COLD SURGE MAY BE QUICK ENOUGH TO             
SEE SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.  OVERALL                      
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT...GIVEN CURRENT                  
FORECAST DATA.  THOUGH SOMETHING TO WATCH HOWEVER.  QUICK CLEARING              
TREND LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE EARLY WED WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR            
BY SUNRISE.  MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE              
MID 30S IN THE NORTH FOR WED WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE            
SOUTH.                                                                          
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                             
A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE WX PATTERN LOOKS IN THE OFFING FOR WED               
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS.  SFC HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S. DURING THE PD                   
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT LOOK TO DROP            
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE               
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON THU AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM GATHERS                   
STRENGTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A GRADIENT OF TEMPS LOOKS GOOD            
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH WITH MID TO               
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHERN KY.                         
THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER                
WITH THE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WEATHER SYSTEM.  WHILE EARLIER RUNS OF            
THESE MODELS HINTED MORE AT A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM TYPE EVENT...THE            
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE STRONG NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF AIR            
AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR              
THE REGION.                                                                     
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS EJECT A DEEP H5 LOW INTO THE                    
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THU AND EARLY FRIDAY.  BOTH MODELS SHOW             
THE TROF TAKING ON A NEG TILT WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER MOVEMENT AND            
THE ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND                 
WEST.  IN FACT...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW GOING RIGHT THROUGH               
THE STATE.  GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA...WE HAVE                 
DECIDED TO REMOVE THE R/S MIX AT THIS TIME AND GO WITH SIMPLY PURE              
RAIN.  RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THU NIGHT AND DURING THE               
DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS             
SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA...WITH THE EURO SHOWING              
SIMILAR AMOUNTS.  THIS QPF WOULD LIKELY BE EXCESSIVE FOR THE                    
AREA...AND HYDRO ISSUES COULD BE THE END RESULT.  SOMETHING TO WATCH            
IN THE COMING DAYS. LOWS THU MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO               
UPPER 30S WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY ON               
FRIDAY.  GENERALLY TRENDED TEMPS CLOSER TO THE 2M RAW NUMBERS HERE              
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.                                   
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FCST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING TIL ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z IN              
STRATUS AS WELL AS MVFR VSBY IN FOG...PRIMARILY AT KBWG. SKIES SHUD             
BECOME CLR BY THE AFTN AND CONTINUE SO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE            
OF HI PRES MOVES NEWD FROM THE LWR MS/TN VLYS.                                  
&&                                                                              
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...13                                                                 
LONG TERM....MJ                                                                 
AVIATION.....11                                                                 
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
630 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS CERTAINLY LOW STRATUS(HOW               
LONG IT WILL LINGER OVER OUR FA THIS MORNING) AND ITS AFFECT ON                 
TEMPS.                                                                          
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS WITH A SLOW SEWD DRIFT AS WINDS AT              
THAT LEVEL BECOME LIGHT NW. A WEAK TROF IS MOVG SEWD OVER SCNTRL                
INDIANA ATTM AND SHUD BE THROUGH OUR FA BY SUNRISE WITH SOMEWHAT                
DRIER AIR(LOWER DEWPOINTS) BEHIND IT. HIGH RESOLUTION NAM APPEARS TO            
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON MOVEMENT OF CLOUDS BASED ON ITS FORECAST OF             
975 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS...WHEREAS THE RUC IS SLOWER MOVG             
CLOUDS OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MOST OF SOUTHERN INDIANA IS CLEAR ATTM                
WITH SCT TO BKN STRATUS NEAR THE OH RIVER. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS             
FOG/ADDITIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT. WILL                
MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON CLOUD TERM TODAY BASED ON SATELLITE              
TRENDS. OF COURSE...CLOUDS WILL AFFECT TEMPS TDA...MOS GUIDANCE IS              
CLEAR FOR LOUISVILLE AT 12Z WHILE KEEPING CLOUDS AT LEXINGTON INTO              
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                   
ONCE STRATUS DEPARTS THIS MORNING...WE SHUD BE CLR OR MOSTLY CLR THE            
REST OF TDA AND TONIGHT AS PLAINS UPR LEVEL RIDGE REACHES THE OH VLY            
BY 12Z MON AND SFC HIGH (SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY ATTM) EXTENDS NEWD               
INTO THE TN/LWR OH VLYS TDA AND CONTS SLOWLY EWD TNGT.                          
WITH WLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT LEAST              
INTO THE 40S OVER OUR WRN FA AS THEY DID ACRS MO AND SRN IL SAT.                
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                     
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START OFF FAIRLY TRANQUIL AT THE BEGINNING OF               
THIS FCST PD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE             
ATLANTIC.  CREST OF H5 RIDGE IS FCST TO DRIFT OVER HEAD AS                      
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  CLOUDS               
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING                
OVERCAST BY EVENING.  DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE               
HIGH WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS                   
REACHING THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE                  
SOUTH.  BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS FCST TO EJECT EAST             
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP             
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY INCR LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING FROM THE SW                  
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  THUS...AM                 
GOING TO KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  STRONG               
WIND FIELDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOW TO              
MID 40S.                                                                        
BY TUESDAY...DEEPENING AND POTENT H5 WAVE ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE              
GREAT LAKES.  SFC CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES WITH A VERY STRONG AND SHARP COLD FRONT HEADING EAST INTO THE             
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  SURGE OF GULF AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO            
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO             
START FIRING WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  TIME-HEIGHT             
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR WILL INITIALLY KEEP              
INSTABILITY DOWN. HOWEVER...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND FORCED ASCENT             
ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION              
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.  WHILE BULK SHEAR IS STRONG FOR                   
POSSIBLE SVR CONVECTION...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL REVOLVES AROUND               
THE FCST INSTABILITY.  ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE                
WATCHED CLOSELY AS H85 WINDS OF 55-60KTS MAY BE ABLE TO WORK DOWN               
WITHIN THE STORMS AND PRESENT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.                           
STRONG FRONT WILL LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z               
WED WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS TUE WILL                
LIKELY WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY                
FALLING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  IN FACT...COLD SURGE MAY BE QUICK               
ENOUGH TO SEE SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.  OVERALL            
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT...GIVEN CURRENT                  
FORECAST DATA.  THOUGH SOMETHING TO WATCH HOWEVER.  QUICK CLEARING              
TREND LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE EARLY WED WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR            
BY SUNRISE.  MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE              
MID 30S IN THE NORTH FOR WED WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE            
SOUTH.                                                                          
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                             
A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE WX PATTERN LOOKS IN THE OFFING FOR WED               
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS.  SFC HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S. DURING THE PD                   
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT LOOK TO DROP            
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE               
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON THU AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM GATHERS                   
STRENGTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A GRADIENT OF TEMPS LOOKS GOOD            
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH WITH MID TO               
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHERN KY.                         
THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER                
WITH THE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WEATHER SYSTEM.  WHILE EARLIER RUNS OF            
THESE MODELS HINTED MORE AT A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM TYPE EVENT...THE            
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE STRONG NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF AIR            
AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR              
THE REGION.                                                                     
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS EJECT A DEEP H5 LOW INTO THE                    
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THU AND EARLY FRIDAY.  BOTH MODELS SHOW             
THE TROF TAKING ON A NEG TILT WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER MOVEMENT AND            
THE ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND                 
WEST.  IN FACT...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW GOING RIGHT THROUGH               
THE STATE.  GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA...WE HAVE                 
DECIDED TO REMOVE THE R/S MIX AT THIS TIME AND GO WITH SIMPLY PURE              
RAIN.  RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THU NIGHT AND DURING THE               
DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS             
SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA...WITH THE EURO SHOWING              
SIMILAR AMOUNTS.  THIS QPF WOULD LIKELY BE EXCESSIVE FOR THE                    
AREA...AND HYDRO ISSUES COULD BE THE END RESULT.  SOMETHING TO WATCH            
IN THE COMING DAYS. LOWS THU MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO               
UPPER 30S WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY ON               
FRIDAY.  GENERALLY TRENDED TEMPS CLOSER TO THE 2M RAW NUMBERS HERE              
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.                                   
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FCST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING TIL ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z IN              
STRATUS AS WELL AS MVFR VSBY IN FOG...PRIMARILY AT KBWG. SKIES SHUD             
BECOME CLR BY THE AFTN AND CONTINUE SO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE            
OF HI PRES MOVES NEWD FROM THE LWR MS/TN VLYS.                                  
&&                                                                              
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DK                                                                 
LONG TERM....MJ                                                                 
AVIATION.....11                                                                 
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
1156 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF               
SW AR/NW/NCNTRL LA UNTIL 16Z MONDAY. SFC OBS/CALL TO LOCAL S/O`S                
HAVE VERIFIED PEA SOUP FOG GRADUALLY EXPANDING W ACROSS SW AR/NW                
LA. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY/AREAS OF FG FOR E TX...AS VERY LOW          
STRATUS FIELD HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN VC OF CXO/IAH...WITH 2-3SM              
VISBIES...SURGING N TOWARDS E TX. HOWEVER...15-20 KT BNDRY LYR                  
FLOW...AND PRESENCE OF 40KTS SRLY LLJ ACROSS CNTRL TX TONIGHT                   
SHOULD KEEP THE AIR WELL ENOUGH MIXED SUCH THAT THE FOG SHOULD NOT              
GET TOO DENSE ACROSS MUCH OF E TX. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO                      
ADJUST/EXPAND CURRENT DENSE FG ADV. AS NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.               
ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT.                                                    
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2008/                         
TOUGH ZONE UPDATE THIS EVENING...AS FOR A 3RD STRAIGHT EVENING...WILL           
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH STEEP TEMPERATURE              
INVERSION OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA. PRIOR TO SUNSET...LOW CLOUDS WERE               
MIXING WELL ENOUGH E CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE CENTER...BUT CLOUDS NOW            
HAVE ACTUALLY SPILLED BACK WNW IN THE BNDRY LYR FLOW AROUND THE SFC             
RIDGE...AND SO THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE 1.) HOW FAR W WILL THE                 
STRATUS REACH BEFORE RETURNING MORE NRLY? 2.) WILL THEY REACH SHV/TXK?          
3.) SHOULD THEY EXIT MLU AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOW MUCH WILL THE TEMP                
CRATER...AND HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE FG BECOME?                                  
CIRRUS SHIELD SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE HAS THINNED IN RECENT                   
HOURS...ALLOWING TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO FALL NEAR/BELOW                 
FORECAST MIN TEMPS. HAVE LOWERED NUMBERS A BIT AREAWIDE...BUT BELIEVE           
WRN SECTIONS OF E TX WILL KEEP SOME WIND OVERNIGHT...THUS REDUCING              
THEIR TEMP. FALL. BELIEVE GREATEST AREAS FOR FG WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE          
SFC RIDGE CENTER/WEAKER BNDRY LYR FLOW...OVER SW AR/N LA. WILL MENTION          
AREAS OF DENSE FG MAINLY E OF A MAGNOLIA AR...TO ARCADIA AND MANY LA            
LINE...AS PATCHY FG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MANY OF THESE AREAS AWAY          
FROM THE STRATUS SHIELD. LATEST RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS                  
INITIALIZED WELL ON THE STRATUS DECK OVER OUR REGION...WHICH QUICKLY            
SHUNTS THE CLOUDS N AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BNDRY LYR FLOW VEERS MORE             
SRLY. THIS SEEMS FEASABLE...AND BELIEVE SOME AREAS OF NCNTRL LA WILL            
BE ABLE TO CLEAR...THUS ENABLING MORE FG TO QUICKLY DEVELOP. FORECAST           
MIN TEMPS ARE ANYONE/S GUESS...AM CONCERNED THAT SHOULD CLOUDS CLEAR            
MLU/ELD...FZFG WILL BE A CONCERN AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY. PATCHY           
FG WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF                    
SE OK/SW AR...AS WELL AS EXTREME ERN TX/NW LA.                                  
UPDATED PRELIM NUMBERS ARE LISTED BELOW. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE OUT                
SHORTLY.                                                                        
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WELL...WE ONLY THOUGHT WE WERE THROUGH WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND LOW              
VISIBILITIES. AFTERNOON SUN DRIED OUT ALL BUT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF              
IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NOW WITH THE                
SETTING OF THE SUN...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IS HELPING TO            
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE BACK AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEST. CEILINGS FALLING              
RAPIDLY WITH LIFR ALREADY AT ELD TERMINAL AND VISIBILITIES AT ELD AND           
MLU TERMINALS LIKELY FOLLOWING SUITE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE             
THIS MOISTURE MAKE IT BACK INTO TXK AND SHV TERMINAL LATER TONIGHT              
BUT WILL KEEP THESE AND NE TX TERMINALS VFR UNTIL THEN. SOUTHEAST               
WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS                 
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LA TAF SITES BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO              
BECOME DENSE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID CLOUD DECK                
EXPANDING FROM THE WEST. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS FOR                 
MONDAY AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.                  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON              
MONDAY AND AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING GUSTS MOST OF THE            
DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX TERMINALS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS            
30KTS POSSIBLE. /13/                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  34  66  61  71 /   0  20  40  40                                           
MLU  33  64  58  73 /   0  10  40  60                                           
DEQ  32  63  54  66 /   0  20  40  20                                           
TXK  37  64  61  68 /   0  20  40  40                                           
ELD  33  63  59  69 /   0  10  40  40                                           
TYR  44  67  63  71 /   0  20  40  40                                           
GGG  39  66  60  70 /   0  20  40  40                                           
LFK  38  68  61  71 /   0  20  40  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE RIVER...                
     MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER...AND UNION AR.                                   
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...                      
     DE SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA SALLE...LINCOLN...                          
     NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...              
     WEBSTER...AND WINN.                                                        
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/13                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1012 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...THINNING CIRRUS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL                  
BELOW FORECAST MINS...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES                
ALL AREAS. HAVE ALSO SEEN VISIBILITIES FALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND               
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND RUC MODEL FORECASTS ARE HITTING FOG PRETTY              
HARD OVERNIGHT. THINK AN ADVISORY WOULD BE PREMATURE AT THIS POINT              
WITH READINGS BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AN INSERT               
PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AREAS THEREAFTER...AND ENHANCE BOTH              
OF THESE WITH DENSE WORDING I-10 AND SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE TO                
MONITOR OBS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. UPDATED PRODUCTS                   
ALREADY SENT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE THAT STRATUS                
CLEARED OUT MAYBE A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BUT              
THATS NOT ALL BAD AS AT LEAST MOST OF THE AREA GOT TO FINALLY SEE               
SOME SUN. LONE HOLDOUTS IN THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE A SMALL AREA                 
FROM EUNICE TO CROWLEY TO WRN VERMILION PARISH...BUT SATELLITE                  
TRENDS INDICATE THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SHORTLY. TEMPS HAVE                  
REBOUNDED NICELY IN THE SUNSHINE AND READINGS SHOULD FINALLY GET                
UP TO EXPECTED MAXES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE SUNDOWN.                   
SHOULD BE A DECENT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER                    
AFFECTS THE AREA. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM AGAIN                  
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT TO TODAYS EXTENT. HIGH PRESSURE WHICH               
WAS CENTERED OVER NRN LA EARLIER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST               
THROUGH THE EVENING ALLOWING LOW-LVL RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER                 
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING...                     
SPREADING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE SFC LOW IS PROGGED               
TO DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW FURTHER INCREASING SRLY FLOW                 
OVER THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.2               
TO 1.3 INCHES BY 00Z TUESDAY. WEAK VORT CROSSING THE LONE STAR                  
STATE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE               
AFTERNOON MONDAY SO INCLUDED A 20 POP FOR THE WRN ZONES TO                      
ACCOUNT. MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET               
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM               
THE W/NW. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR THE NRN ZONES MONDAY                   
NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE/BETTER PROXIMITY TO UPPER JET               
DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL LIFT/SFC CONVERGENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED WITH FROPA ON TUESDAY...NRN ZONES MAY                 
SEE BETTER COVERAGE ALTHOUGH FOR NOW KEPT ENTIRE AREA AT 50                     
PERCENT. COULD BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL BUT TOO EARLY TO PIN              
DOWN LIKELIHOODS ATTM. HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR               
THE SERN 1/2 OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY EVENING AS FRONT DEPARTS THE               
REGION.                                                                         
WEDNESDAY LOOKS FINE AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE              
REGION. HOWEVER SFC RETURN FLOW AND SRLY LOW-LVL JETTING QUICKLY                
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE                    
CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS NEXT FRONT               
CROSSES THE AREA. DRY WEATHER LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF                 
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW                    
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEXT SUNDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER THE                 
PLAINS.                                                                         
AVIATION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS. EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO REFORM              
THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL IFR VIS IN FOG FOR S CEN LA TERMINALS LFT              
AND ARA. CIGS SHOULD BURN OFF EARLIER THAN TODAY ON MONDAY AS                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.                                                       
11                                                                              
MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SRLY WINDS                  
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM                     
SYSTEM. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING                   
WITH STRONG NRLY FLOW...AND LIKELY AN ADVISORY...LEFT IN ITS WAKE.              
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ONSET OF NEXT                   
ROUND OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDING THURSDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  39  65  60  73 /  10  10  20  50                                          
KBPT  41  67  59  74 /  10  20  20  50                                          
KAEX  38  67  58  72 /  10  10  30  50                                          
KLFT  39  66  57  73 /  10  10  20  50                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...05                                                                     
MARINE....05                                                                    
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
944 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TOUGH ZONE UPDATE THIS EVENING...AS FOR A 3RD STRAIGHT EVENING...WILL           
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH STEEP TEMPERATURE              
INVERSION OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA. PRIOR TO SUNSET...LOW CLOUDS WERE               
MIXING WELL ENOUGH E CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE CENTER...BUT CLOUDS NOW            
HAVE ACTUALLY SPILLED BACK WNW IN THE BNDRY LYR FLOW AROUND THE SFC             
RIDGE...AND SO THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE 1.) HOW FAR W WILL THE                 
STRATUS REACH BEFORE RETURNING MORE NRLY? 2.) WILL THEY REACH SHV/TXK?          
3.) SHOULD THEY EXIT MLU AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOW MUCH WILL THE TEMP                
CRATER...AND HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE FG BECOME?                                  
CIRRUS SHIELD SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE HAS THINNED IN RECENT                   
HOURS...ALLOWING TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO FALL NEAR/BELOW                 
FORECAST MIN TEMPS. HAVE LOWERED NUMBERS A BIT AREAWIDE...BUT BELIEVE           
WRN SECTIONS OF E TX WILL KEEP SOME WIND OVERNIGHT...THUS REDUCING              
THEIR TEMP. FALL. BELIEVE GREATEST AREAS FOR FG WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE          
SFC RIDGE CENTER/WEAKER BNDRY LYR FLOW...OVER SW AR/N LA. WILL MENTION          
AREAS OF DENSE FG MAINLY E OF A MAGNOLIA AR...TO ARCADIA AND MANY LA            
LINE...AS PATCHY FG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MANY OF THESE AREAS AWAY          
FROM THE STRATUS SHIELD. LATEST RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS                  
INITIALIZED WELL ON THE STRATUS DECK OVER OUR REGION...WHICH QUICKLY            
SHUNTS THE CLOUDS N AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BNDRY LYR FLOW VEERS MORE             
SRLY. THIS SEEMS FEASABLE...AND BELIEVE SOME AREAS OF NCNTRL LA WILL            
BE ABLE TO CLEAR...THUS ENABLING MORE FG TO QUICKLY DEVELOP. FORECAST           
MIN TEMPS ARE ANYONE/S GUESS...AM CONCERNED THAT SHOULD CLOUDS CLEAR            
MLU/ELD...FZFG WILL BE A CONCERN AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY. PATCHY           
FG WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF                    
SE OK/SW AR...AS WELL AS EXTREME ERN TX/NW LA.                                  
UPDATED PRELIM NUMBERS ARE LISTED BELOW. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE OUT                
SHORTLY.                                                                        
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WELL...WE ONLY THOUGHT WE WERE THROUGH WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND LOW              
VISIBILITIES. AFTERNOON SUN DRIED OUT ALL BUT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF              
IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NOW WITH THE                
SETTING OF THE SUN...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IS HELPING TO            
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE BACK AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEST. CEILINGS FALLING              
RAPIDLY WITH LIFR ALREADY AT ELD TERMINAL AND VISIBILITIES AT ELD AND           
MLU TERMINALS LIKELY FOLLOWING SUITE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE             
THIS MOISTURE MAKE IT BACK INTO TXK AND SHV TERMINAL LATER TONIGHT              
BUT WILL KEEP THESE AND NE TX TERMINALS VFR UNTIL THEN. SOUTHEAST               
WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS                 
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LA TAF SITES BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO              
BECOME DENSE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID CLOUD DECK                
EXPANDING FROM THE WEST. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS FOR                 
MONDAY AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.                  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON              
MONDAY AND AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING GUSTS MOST OF THE            
DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX TERMINALS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS            
30KTS POSSIBLE. /13/                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  35  66  61  71 /   0  20  40  40                                           
MLU  34  64  58  73 /   0  10  40  60                                           
DEQ  32  63  54  66 /   0  20  40  20                                           
TXK  37  64  61  68 /   0  20  40  40                                           
ELD  33  63  59  69 /   0  10  40  40                                           
TYR  45  67  63  71 /   0  20  40  40                                           
GGG  39  66  60  70 /   0  20  40  40                                           
LFK  38  68  61  71 /   0  20  40  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/13                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1257 AM EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS IT                        
ACCELERATES NORTHEAST...FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS                
FEATURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT                 
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH                    
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MIDWEEK....WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM                    
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY LATER THURSDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
AREAS IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TRYING                
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS LEAD TO MORE MOISTURE TO BE                  
TRAPPED BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS AT 6K FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE                 
ERN THIRD OF VA/MD AWAY FROM THE COAST. REG SAT FOG PROD 11U-3.9U               
PICKING SHOWS AREA OF CLOUD CVR NICELY. LATEST NAM12 DOING A VERY               
GOOD JOB ON PICKING UP THIS FEATURE AT H92-85 LVLS (RH) AND KEEPS               
A CHUNK OF THE ERN SECTIONS OF MD/VA RGN IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE                  
OVERNIGHT AND SHOWS CLOUD DECK SPILLING INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN                
SHORE TWRDS SUNRISE. RUC13/NAM12 ALSO SHOW DECENT Q-VECTOR                      
CONVERGENCE AT H85 LVLS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE/WILL DVLP. HAVE INCRSD                
CLD CVR/MIN TEMPS WHERE NEEDED.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
RELATIVELY BENIGN WX DAY MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES                       
OVERHEAD AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.                                       
IN TERMS OF CLDS...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM OF LTL IF ANY CLDS                 
THRU TMRW AFTN WITH DRY SW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.                    
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. APPEARS THAT               
NEARLY FULL SUN WL ALLOW MAX T TMRW TO RISE INTO THE LWR 50S ACRS               
THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL/SOUTHSIDE VA. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN                
THE M/U40S ACRS NORTHERN NECK AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN SHORE.                    
09Z SREF APPEARS TO BE A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND                 
SLOWER NAM...AND SREF GFS BLEND WAS THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST                 
PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE BY LATE MON NGT/ERY                 
TUESDAY. CLOUDS WL SLOWLY INCREASE...AS MID/HIGH CLDS PUSH INTO                 
THE REGION AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO              
REMAIN NRLY STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT TMRW NGT.                                     
STRONG WAA TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DESPITE THE INCREASING                   
CLDS...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND (RATHER WEAK                 
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE) WL KEEP US DRY THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY.              
FRNT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EWRD TOWARD                
THE MID ATLC REGION. AGAIN...TUESDAY LOOKS WARM WITH STRONG SW                  
FLOW...ESP ACRS SE VA/NC WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LOW LVL               
THICKNESSES SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S/NEAR 60F...WITH 50-55 ERN                 
SHORE AND NW ZONES. IF FRNT IS INDEED A LITTLE SLOWER TO                        
ARRIVE...MAX T VALUES OVER THE WEST MAY HV TO COME UP A DEGREE OR               
TWO.                                                                            
WL KEEP POPS FOR TUE AFTN...BUT HV PUSHED THEM BACK UNTIL LATE                  
AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR I-95 W...WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR (PROBABLY                 
SCT) SHRAS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES. POPS TAPER TO SLGT CHC OVER                 
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ERY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SREF STILL                    
PICKING UP ON QUICK DRYING WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LLVL LOW                
TURNS WEST (DOWNSLOPE) AFTER 09Z...WITH EXPECTATION THAT POPS                   
SHUTOFF VERY QUICKLY THEREAFTER AREAWIDE. RATHER WARM LOWS TUE                  
NGT/WED MRNG WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG ON                       
WED...AND WENT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABV MOS GUIDANCE AS A RESULT OF                
THIS.                                                                           
DID NOTICE THAT LATEST ECMWF/UKMET DID SLOW DOWN FROPA WEDNESDAY                
MORNING. FOR NOW...WL KEEP FRONTAL TIMING AS IS...WITH THE IDEA                 
THAT WE CAN PUSH BACK TIMING LATER IF NECESSARY. EITHER WAY...QPF               
FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS RATHER MEAGER AT BEST. SREF PLUMES HINTING AT              
<0.05 IN QPF FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING LESS                 
THAN 0.50 OF QPF. MOST MODELS SEEM TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER END                
OF THAT SCALE...AND HV TRENDED QPF FORECAST THAT WAY PENDING                    
CONVINCING EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY.                                            
WHILE DEGREE OF CLEARING REMAINS TO BE SEEN...SKIES SHOULD CLR                  
OUT WED MORNING. GENLY ACCEPTED A MEX BASED BLEND FOR HIGHS                     
WEDNESDAY. AS HAS OCCURRED WITH NUMEROUS WEAK FROPAS EARLIER THIS               
SEASON...BLV THAT CLEARING SKIES...GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND SLOW              
TO ARRIVE COOL AIR WL COMBINE FOR ANOTHER WARMER THAN CLIMO AFTN.               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
AFT RECENT BOUT OF COLD AIR...TYPICAL OF LA NINAS (ESP                          
MOD/STRNG)...TEMPS FLIPPING BACK TO AVGG ABV NRML DURG THE XTNDD                
PD. PTRN ALOFT WL BE TROUGH OUT W...FLAT RDG ACRS SE CONUS -                    
RESULTING STM TRACK FM CNTRL/SRN PLNS THROUGH OH VLY/LAKES STATES.              
SFC HI PRES SLIDES ACRS FA THU...THEN OFFSHR THU NGT. APRS TO BE                
PTNTL FOR SHORT PD OF LLVL CAD INLAND THU NGT INTO FRI W/ HI PRES               
EXITING THE CST...AND NEXT STM TRACKING W OF MTNS. SFC WRMFNT TO                
PUSH NWD ON FRI AS THE LO MVS THROUGH ERN LAKES RGN. TMG OF PCPN                
ARRIVAL THU NGT...AND XTNT OF PCPN CVRG/QPF ON FRI (WL BULK OF                  
PCPN LIFT N OF FA BY AFTN HRS?) RMN PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT. HV                
HUNG ONTO LLVL CAD OVR PDMNT THROUGH FRI (KPG TEMPS IN THE 40S WNW              
OF RIC)...WHL WRM SCTR NUDGES NWD UP THE CSTL PLN AND PSBL INTO                 
THE I95 CORRIDOR. CDFNT PUSHES OFF THE CST FRI EVE...THEN HI PRES               
RETURNS W/ DRY WX FOR NEXT WKND.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
SC DECK ARND 6K FT CONTS TO WRAPARND CSTL LOW PULLING FRTHR AWAY.               
XPCT THIS CLD DECK TO SLOWLY BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT BY 12Z. OTW...             
VFR THRU FCST PRD. CUD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT LATER TDY ALONG                 
THE COAST.                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVERHEAD THRU TUE WITH VFR CONDS. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS          
MAY BE SEEN WITH SHRA ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED AM.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
N-NW WNDS SLOWLY INCRG INTO SCA RANGE ERLY THIS AM. XPCT THIS CAA               
TO CONT KPG LO END SCAS ALL AREAS THROUGH MON AFTN/ERY EVE...THEN               
ON THE NRN WTRS (FOR LINGERING SEAS ARND 5 FT) MON NGT. HI PRES                 
MVS QUIKLY OVR THE WTRS DURG TUE...THEN OFFSHR. NEXT CDFNT PUSHES               
ACRS THE WTRS TUE NGT. AHD OF THE FNT...PTNTTLY MOD LLVL FLO FM SW              
DRCTN...WHICH SHIFTS TO WLY ON WED IN WAKE OF FNTL PASSAGE.                     
ANOTHER PD OF ONSHR LLVL FLO (PSBL SCAS) THU INTO ERY FRI AHD OF                
DVLPG/INTENSIFYING STM HEADING NE FM THE MID MS VLY TO THE ERN                  
LAKES. XPCTG WNDSHIFT TO SSW FRI AFTN...FOLLOWED BY WLY FLO BEHIND              
THE CDFNTL PASSAGE BY LT FRI NGT/SAT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     ANZ630>633-656-658.                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MAM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CCW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BKH/MAM                                                            
LONG TERM...ALB                                                                 
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...ALB/MPR                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
738 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH              
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...A TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN                     
WEST...AND RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE                
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALSO WITHIN THE WESTERN TROUGH TO NOTE FOR THE             
SHORT TERM IS A SHRTWV IN NW KANSAS. SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND             
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO               
THE CWA...NOTED BY EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SUN WAS              
ABLE TO PENETRATE THROUGH TO COMBINE WITH THE BREEZY SW FLOW AND                
WARM 850MB TEMPS (6C AT GRB AND 12C AT MPX) TO BRING TEMPS UP CLOSE             
TO RECORD LEVELS. THE HIGH TEMP REACHED 41F AT THE OFFICE...JUST 2              
DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD. MORE THICKER CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON                   
VISIBLE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE CWA FROM TWO DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS...            
AND THESE WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS            
TO THE SOUTH...STRETCHING FROM SOTUEHRN LAKE MICHGIAN DOWN INTO THE             
OHIO VALLEY. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN TOO WITH            
THESE CLOUDS. THIS AREA IS BEING SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC LIFTING                
THROUGH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...NOTED BY 850MB WINDS OF             
50-70KT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM LATEST                
PROFILERS. THE OTHER AREA OF THICK CLOUDS IS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO              
MN...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DPVA AHEAD OF THE NW KANSAS SHRTWV...              
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100-120KT JET                
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT                 
REGION OF A 100-120 KT JET EXTENDING FORM NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN               
NEBRASKA. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED OUT OF THESE                   
CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 982MB LOW IS LOCATED IN NE SOUTH DAKOTA.             
VERY CHILLY AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND THE LOW...NOTED BY SURFACE TEMPS              
IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO OVER ALBERTA...SASKATCHEWAN AND                 
EASTERN MONTANA (850MB TEMPS ARE BELOW -30C). LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS              
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH IN                 
NEVADA...WHICH IS NOTED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER UTAH.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...              
LIKELY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUING TO MARCH            
SE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW. THIS PROGRESSION COMES INTO PLAY A BIT               
MORE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.                                  
FOR TONIGHT...FOCUS IS ON THE TWO FEATURES MENTIONED IN THE                     
SYNOPSIS...THE SHRTWV LIFTING NE OUT OF NW KANSAS...AND THE AREA OF             
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING UP THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. SHRTWV                
LIFTING OUT OF NW KANSAS SHOULD MOVE INTO WI BY 06Z...THEN INTO NE              
ONTARIO BY 12Z. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV...COMBINED WITH SOME JET              
COUPLING FROM THE TWO JET AREAS ALSO LIFTING NE...SHOULD BRING SOME             
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. PCPN MAY CHANGE TO                
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN...THOUGH AFTER 06Z THE               
DYNAMICAL FORCING BEGINS TO WANE...SO SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS                 
POINT LOOKS MINIMAL. OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AREA OF ISENTROPICALLY              
LIFTED RAIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING...THEN ALSO EXIT                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL U.P. IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO                  
FEATURES...AND IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT VERY LITTLE MAY HAPPEN              
OTHER THAN DRIZZLE ONCE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP. THEREFORE...HIGHEST               
POPS ARE CONCENTRATED FOR THE WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN CWA...AND                 
BEFORE 06Z. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD                
FRONT APPROACH. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND SOME WIND...COMBINED WITH             
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS UP UNTIL THE                
FRONT PASSES THROUGH (FRONT PROGGED TO BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL                
U.P. AT 12Z TUE). ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO LOWS.                         
FOR TUE...THE MORNING LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET PCPN WISE AS THE AREA IS               
PUT IN OVERALL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...CAUSED BY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN              
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHRTWV AND COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AS THE                 
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS. THE COLD ADVECTION AT THIS POINT                
DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH IN THE MORNING TO GENERATE ANY LAKE EFFECT            
OFF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FOCUS OF ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE                
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.. DPVA AHEAD OF THE            
SHRTWV AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD GENERATE A LOW ALONG THE                
COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS                 
PROGGED TO LIFT WITH THE SHRTWV FROM SE KANSAS AT 12Z UP INTO SW                
LOWER MI BY 00Z WED. DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...IN CONJUNTION WITH              
DPVA FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN               
MN...AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED TO MOVE IN SHOULD HELP               
EXPAND SNOW INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE                 
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN U.P....WHERE THE COLD AIR IS NOW COLD ENOUGH            
(850MB TEMPS DROP TO -16 TO -21C BY 00Z) TO GENERATE LAKE                       
EFFECT...AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE DPVA FORCING IS                   
MAXIMIZED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE SEEM               
REASONABLE...GREATEST IN THE FAR WEST WITH LAKE ENHANCMENT AND FAR              
SOUTH CENTRAL CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK. NEW 18Z NAM MIGHT SUGGEST                
MORE FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL...AND GIVEN THE UPCOMING WINDS AND SNOW              
FOR TUE NIGHT...A WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN             
SCHOOLCRAFT. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE              
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE              
DIGITS NEAR IWD BY SUNSET.                                                      
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THRU MON)...                                              
DANGEROUS WINTER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHAPING UP FOR PORTIONS OF             
THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FIRST UP...SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH               
SHORTWAVE/SFC WAVE AND A BAND OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MIDLEVEL                     
FRONTOGENESIS WILL STREAK NNE THRU THE FCST AREA TUE EVENING...                 
ESPECIALLY CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT              
WITH REGARD TO SNOW AMOUNTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE                   
STRENGTH OF SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO MORE SNOW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.               
NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH PCPN AMOUNTS. IN FACT...18Z RUN              
HAS 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF PCPN OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FCST AREA. WINDS/BLSN             
WILL ALSO BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. IN LIGHT OF THE NAM SOLUTIONS...            
HAVE OPTED TO CARRY A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MENOMINEE TO SRN                   
SCHOOLCRAFT THRU TUE NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE                  
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/BLSN. LATER SHIFTS CAN THEN ADJUST TO SNOW/BLSN                
ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING IF THE NAM IS ACTUALLY ONTO SOMETHING.               
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS LAKE                
SUPERIOR. LES WILL SWING INTO HIGH GEAR AS ARCTIC SURGES OVER THE               
UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG/INTENSE CAA (850MB                
TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -25C...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -30C BY 12Z                   
WED)...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR FAVORABLE DENDRITIC                
SNOW GROWTH BEFORE THE COLUMN BECOMES TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. SO...             
DO NOT EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO GET OUT OF HAND...ESPECIALLY                
OVER THE W WHERE SHORT FETCH/STRONG WINDS WILL MINIMIZE HEATING OF              
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LAKE WHICH WOULD IMPROVE SNOW GROWTH.               
SHOULD ONLY SEE ADVY AMOUNTS THERE. LONGER FETCH/WARMING INTO THE NE            
FCST AREA MAY OFFER BETTER SNOW GROWTH...SO AMOUNTS MIGHT REACH                 
WARNING CRITERIA THERE. THE BIG COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE                 
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND VERY UNSTABLE TEMP PROFILE OVER THE             
LAKE ENSURING EFFICIENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD                 
REACH 35 TO 50KT (HIGHEST OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR)...                  
PROVIDING AN INDICATION OF POSSIBLE GUST SPEEDS. WITH SNOWFLAKE SIZE            
BECOMING VERY SMALL AND MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VSBY...                 
STRONG WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLIZZARD               
CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING FOR THE KEWEENAW            
TO ONTONAGON AND MUNISING EWD. HAVE THUS CHANGED WINTER STORM WATCH             
TO BLIZZARD WATCH TO PROVIDE INCREASED AWARENESS OF THE POTENTIAL               
FOR LONG DURATION LOW VIS IN SNOW/BLSN.                                         
EXPECT ADVY HEADLINES FOR SNOW/BLSN AND/OR WIND CHILLS FOR THE                  
REMAINING COUNTIES NOT UNDER WATCHES. LES WILL CONTINUE WED...BUT               
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE DAY. DUE TO VERY COLD/DRY                   
AIRMASS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 1-4INCH RANGE IN             
THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...FAVORED THE LOWER END OF                  
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT AND FOR MAX TEMPS WED GIVEN THE                
VERY COLD AIR CURRENTLY OBSERVED UPSTREAM WITHIN THE AIRMASS. WITH              
LATE AFTN SFC TEMPS IN ALBERTA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND ERN MT RANGING              
FROM -10F TO -25F...IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE TEMPS REFLECTED IN THIS FCST            
ISSUANCE MAY BE TOO HIGH.                                                       
THU THRU MON...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE              
STORM TRACK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND AND                   
BEYOND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROP SE THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA                
INTO THE WRN STATES AND THEN LIFT E OR NE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN              
CONUS. SYSTEMS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCERS WITH STRONG GULF              
OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONNECTIONS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FCST                   
PERIOD...ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN                 
PLAINS. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT TODAY IN WHAT THE TRACK             
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AS IT HEADS NE. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND                 
GLOBAL CANADIAN ARE INDICATING SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY PASS A LITTLE               
TOO FAR TO THE SE TO HAVE A BIG AFFECT ON THE WEATHER HERE.                     
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUED ITS NW TREND (LAST 4 RUNS THRU 00Z                
RUN...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE SE A LITTLE) AND THE              
UKMET PROVIDES SUPPORT. THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD PROVIDE A POSSIBLE                
ADVY SNOWFALL OVER THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA. SO IN THE END...               
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH...AND BEST COURSE OF                 
ACTION WILL BE TO STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST WHICH DID BRING CHC               
POPS TO MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN FCST AREA FRI WITH ASSUMPTION THAT THE            
NW FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM MIGHT REACH THE AREA. THERE IS REASONABLE               
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE TAKING A MORE NRN ROUTE WILL             
PASS THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT. CHC POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ARE                
WARRANTED FOR THIS FEATURE. NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE             
WRN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT INTO THE WRN                
PLAINS MON. RECENT ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE HAD A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS             
TO BE A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE             
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEADING EDGE OF EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD              
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MON. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND TRACK            
OF SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE MIXED PCPN ISSUES...BUT ONLY SNOW WILL BE            
MENTIONED FOR NOW. AFTER THU...DAILY TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE             
NORMAL THRU MON (NORMALS ARE ROUGHLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO            
FOR MINS AND MD 20S FOR MAXES).                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TIMING ONSET OF LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS IR                  
SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS JUST STARTING TO FORM                 
UPSTREAM OVER WRN WI.                                                           
FOR CMX...AS DISTURBANCE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS LIFTS NE IT SHOULD                
DRAW MOISTURE UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING             
TO GENERATE SOME -RA OR -SN BY 03Z. KEPT IDEA OF PREV FCST WITH                 
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS BY 03Z AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR SOME LOWER               
VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF NIGHT. A COLD FRONT              
MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT EARLY TUE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THE WINDS                
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...BUT AIR COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 18Z. BY 19Z...CONBINATION OF LES AND             
SHOULD LOWER PREVAILING VBSY DOWN TO 1/2SM. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP              
20-24Z FOR 1/4SM IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WITH IFR CIGS.                            
AT SAW...INCREASING MOISTURE IN A WARM SRLY FLOW OVER THE COLDER                
AIRMASS AND SNOWPACK OVER UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LOWER               
IFR DECK TO FORM BY 03Z. LOOK FOR MIST/DRIZZLE CONDITIONS TO BRING              
VSBYS DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TUE             
MORNING SHOULD RAISE CEILINGS BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ARRIVAL OF              
ARCTIC AIR AND WAVE MOVING UP BACKSIDE OF COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT              
IN PREVAILING MVFR SNOW BY 21Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP 21-24Z FOR IFR                
CONDITIONS IN SNOW.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SOUTHERLY GALES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALES            
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NE SOUTH DAKOTA LIFTS INTO             
NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT IN            
THE WAKE OF THE LOWS COLD FRONT...WITH 30 KT SPEEDS LIKELY ON TUE               
AS ARCTIC AIR FLOWS IN. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE            
COLD FRONT AND LIFT TOWARDS FAR EASTERN UPPER MI TUE NIGHT.                     
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR NORTHWEST STORM             
FORCE WINDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ANY             
EVENT...GALES LOOK LIKE TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH SLOWLY ON WED AND THEN MORE SO WED NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. BEYOND WED NIGHT...THE ONLY                 
SYSTEM OF INTEREST TO BRING POTENTIALLY HIGHER WINDS IS ON FRIDAY               
WHEN A LOW LIFTS UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE                  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. RIGHT NOW...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KT AS            
THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                             
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR FLOWING IN ON TUESDAY...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY                
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE...BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR                    
WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST TUE NIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL                 
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS RELAX WITH THE INCOMING HIGH                  
PRESSURE RIDGE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...                                                                     
  BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                       
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003.                                                  
  BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING                 
     FOR MIZ006-007-085.                                                        
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                   
     MORNING FOR MIZ012>014.                                                    
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                           
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST                    
    THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                                                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AJ                                                                 
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1248 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY WITH                
REGARDS TO PCPN POTENTIAL.                                                      
15Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED GENERAL               
UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW...BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A              
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. PLENTY             
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR...WHICH VISIBLE SATELLITE             
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATES IS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH                 
CLOUDS. BELOW THESE HIGH CLOUDS...12Z RAOB AND TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ARE             
QUITE DRY...WITH 10-20C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE REGION                  
BETWEEN 900-500MB. THE SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN              
900-850MB THANKS TO 850MB TEMPS OF 3C AT APX...7C AT GRB AND 12C AT             
MPX. NORMALLY THIS INVERSION WOULD MEAN TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS OVER THE             
AREA. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MOST SURFACE OBS (EXCLUDING SAW)            
SHOW VERY FEW IF ANY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES.              
THIS APPEARS MOSTLY DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH              
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY ON THE WAY UP NOW WITH MOST READINGS IN THE             
25 TO 30 F RANGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS...NEAR 40...ARE MOVING NORTHEAST             
THROUGH KS INTO SW IA ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. 850MB WINDS ARE SW             
AT 60-65 KT AT PROFILERS ACROSS KS INTO NORTHERN MO. AT THE                     
SURFACE...A 987MB LOW IS SITUATED NEAR BISMARCK...WITH ALL OF THE               
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WARM SECTOR.               
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...AM            
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON ANY PCPN OCCURRING TODAY. FOLLOWED THE DRIER                
NAM/RUC SCENARIO OVER THE GFS AS THEY SEEM TO BE DOING BETTER WITH              
RESPECT TO MOISTURE IN CURRENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. PLUS...                        
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THE WARM SECTOR OF A SYSTEM IN WINTER IS              
NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN BECAUSE MOISTURE IS HARDER TO COME BY.              
THEREFORE MADE A SOMEWHAT DRASTIC CHANGE AND WENT COMPLETELY DRY FOR            
TODAY. RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY GIVEN CURRENT READINGS ARE NEAR                    
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TEMPER READINGS FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH.              
AS FAR AS TONIGHT GOES...WANTED TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT            
THERE IS A BIT MORE DYNAMICAL FORCING TAKING PLACE. OVER THE WESTERN            
U.P....MODELS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND POSSIBLE JET            
COUPLING TAKING PLACE...WHICH COULD FORCE SATURATION AND PCPN. IN               
THE FAR EASTERN U.P....ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING UP THROUGH MISSOURI               
INTO ILLINOIS (NOTED BY THICK MID-CLOUDS THERE) HEADS NORTHEAST AND             
COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCPN. THE CENTRAL U.P. GETS STUCK                      
IN-BETWEEN PERHAPS INTO A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL SOMEWHAT               
HEDGE THE GOING FORECAST TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO...WITH MORE CHANGES              
FORTHCOMING ONCE THE 12Z GFS COMES IN TO SEE IF IT HANDLES THE                  
MOISTURE BETTER.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE STORM POTENTIAL              
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE                  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A FLATTEN RIDGE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION. A                
CLOSED LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK               
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...NORTH DAKOTA...AND WYOMING.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT              
LEADING IT STRETCHING INTO ILLINOIS. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS             
FROM WINNIPEG EAST TO JAMES BAY. AN ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHES FROM              
GEORGIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THERE IS SOME FOG OVER THE              
EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.                            
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS TODAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WORKS                
NORTHEAST. THE SHORTWAVE CLIMBING THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY STAY                 
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING                 
WHICH WILL RACE UP THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.             
THE NOSE OF A 100+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN U.P.            
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW OVER MONTANA WILL CATCH UP WITH              
THE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MERGE AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN                   
MINNESOTA. THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN.               
THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST APPEARS TO BE STEERING                      
EVERYTHING NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT               
THE EASTERN CONUS DRAWING WARM AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS            
SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE U.P.               
TODAY. THE INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD             
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERATE                    
PRECIPITATION. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY              
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILE            
AND WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MIX OF             
RAIN AND SNOW. A 50KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA TODAY. THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO MIX SOME OF              
THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.                                                     
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES WITH THE NAM ONLY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE                   
CONSENSUS AND THE UKMET SLIGHTLY SLOWER. AS SUGGESTED BY HPC WILL GO            
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE                
DAKOTA AND CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF              
THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL            
MOVE OUT OF MINNESOTA AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MIDNIGHT DRAGGING             
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS AT                
THAT TIME WILL BEGIN TO VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST. ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WARM MOISTURE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RAINS            
OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...COLD             
AIR WILL ADVECT IN AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN U.P.            
THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA. A SECONDARY             
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL WORK NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT             
AND REACH EASTERN IOWA BY SUNRISE.                                              
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH MINNESOTA AND EASTERN MANITOBA BY                
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL                
SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO                 
NORTHEAST ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THE             
SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE FRONT AND WILL REACH NORTHERN LOWER                   
MICHIGAN BY LATE TUESDAY. A -32C 850MB THERMAL WILL SHIFT INTO                  
MINNESOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE COLD               
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW             
BY LATE MORNING. THE TIGHT GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE             
THE WINDS OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW BY LATE            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.             
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD            
FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR. A 40KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST             
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE MIXING SOME            
OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL             
GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND BLOWING SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WEST                
END. A WINTER STORMS WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED. WIND CHILLS COULD REACH            
ADVISORY CATEGORY LATE. SINCE IT COULD BE AN ADVISORY WILL HOLD OFF             
ON ISSUING IT AT THIS TIME.                                                     
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN               
QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKEWISE SWING INTO QUEBEC            
WHILE THE RIDGE PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                  
VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT            
LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS WELL. THE                   
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LAKE EFFECT               
SNOWS. THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SO EXPECT TO SEE              
MORE BLOWING SNOW. WITH THE TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS IT WILL                     
BE...EXPECT TO SEE FINER FLAKES WHICH WITH THE WINDS WILL REDUCE                
VISIBILITY GREATLY. THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN             
PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO SIGNIFICANT LES                
OVER THE LUCE...ALGER AND EVEN NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TAF FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARDS TO CEILINGS             
GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE               
GREAT LAKES HAS NO LOW CLOUDS AT ALL AS OF 1730Z.                               
FOR CMX...CLOUD COVER OVER THE DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO BECOME THICKER              
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SE COLORADO. AS THIS                   
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE AND BRINGS MOISTURE UP FROM THE CENTRAL                    
PLAINS...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE             
SOME -RA OR -SN AFTER 02Z. FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A LOWERING TO MVFR            
AND PROB30S FOR POSSIBLY SOME LOWER VSBYS AND CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT            
SLOWLY PASSING TOMORROW MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THE                       
WINDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH AIR TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS NOT                  
INDICATED UNTIL 17/18Z...AND THUS HAVE LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW.                   
AT SAW...THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED AT CMX IS A BIT TOO FAR WEST TO              
PROVIDE MUCH FORCING FOR PCPN. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT BRINGING UP             
OF MOISTURE FROM KANSAS INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN             
(THANKS ALSO IN PART FROM SNOWPACK MELTING)...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN             
SOME LOW CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHERE AROUND 03Z              
THIS SHOULD FORM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME IFR MIST/DRIZZLE                
CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TUE MORNING COULD ACTUALLY                 
CLEAR THE SKIES UP SOME...AND AT THE MINIMUM RAISE CEILINGS. HAVE               
DONE THIS BY SHOWING AN MVFR BKN DECK. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE                   
SURPRISED IF SKIES SCATTER OUT...BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING NEAR THE            
COLD FRONT NOW BETWEEN RAPID CITY AND BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LO PRES DVLPG IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MRNG TO MOVE INTO              
MN THIS EVENING AND THEN ONTARIO ON TUE MRNG WHILE DEEPENING. SLY               
GALES HAVE DVLPD AS FCST OVER ECNTRL LK SUP...AND THESE WL CONTINUE             
INTO TNGT BEFORE PRES GRADIENT GRDLY EASES LATE TNGT. A STRONG                  
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE AS THE LO MOVES TO            
NEAR JAMES BAY IN THE EVNG. ANOTHER LO PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ON THE             
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUE AND MOVE INTO SE              
CAN AND INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. GALE TO STORM FORCE W TO NW WINDS               
AND HEAVY FRZG SPRAY WL DVLP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FNT AND THE                
DVLPG LO ON THIS BNDRY AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES OVER LK SUP. PLAN ON THE            
STRONGEST WINDS FM THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE TO THE E. AS THE LO             
CONTINUES NE ON THU...A HI PRES RDG WL BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT             
LAKES. ON FRI...A DEVELOPING LO OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS                    
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...                                                                     
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY MIZ001>003.             
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY                         
   MIZ006>007-085.                                                              
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY LSZ266-267.                 
LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY LMZ248-250.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1243 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                       
IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN                 
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
STATES TODAY TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THIS                  
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.             
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER AND               
VERY WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1235 PM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                    
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)                                             
MADE TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS AS SOME LOW TO MID 40S OCCURRING ACROSS THE            
WESTERN CWA AND TEMPS SHOULD REACH 40S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON               
BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES. WILL PROBABLY BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES            
FOR TUESDAY WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE...BUT WINDS               
AND SNOW TUESDAY EVENING WILL NEED HEADLINES. REST OF PREVIOUS                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                                    
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS             
A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY             
12Z TUE. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT                
NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. HOWEVER 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND 13KM             
RUC PROGGED SFC WIND GUSTS SUGGEST GUSTS AND CERTAINLY SUSTAINED                
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADV CRITERIA.                                     
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL COME TUE AND TUE NIGHT. WE               
EXPECT A BAND OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO RACE                  
ACROSS OUR CWFA BETWEEN AROUND 20Z TUE AND 00Z WED. AN NCFR IS                  
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THAT TIME FRAME WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE                 
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN KINEMATIC PROFILES AT THAT TIME.                      
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT.             
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. HIGH WIND GUSTS            
OF AT LEAST 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWFA TUE NIGHT WITH            
HIGHEST GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 65 MPH ALONG THE LAKE MI                     
SHORELINE.                                                                      
WE ALREADY STRONGLY CONSIDERED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR OUR CWFA FOR               
TUE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY FOR OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES). ULTIMATELY AFTER             
COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE FELT IT WAS A BIT EARLY FOR THIS              
HEADLINE. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO CONSIDER THIS AND               
MONITOR FUTURE GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSELY.                                         
VERY STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RAPID                    
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE              
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY IF THE SECONDARY              
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPS AS 00Z GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. I BELIEVE              
THAT THIS SNOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND PLUMMETING             
SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIPPERY TO ICY ROAD CONDITIONS AND             
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.                                 
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN SPITE              
OF THE VERY STRONG CAA AND PLUMMETING 850 MB TEMPS. THE VERY STRONG             
WINDS WILL REALLY LIMIT AIRMASS RESIDENCE TIME OVER LAKE MI AND                 
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CRASH WHICH WILL REALLY INHIBIT LES                      
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE ACHIEVED AT 05Z WED. WE WILL INDICATE STEADY              
TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE NDFD TEMP STRINGS FOR WED WITH                   
APPARENT TEMP VALUES FALLING TO NEAR TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO BY                 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                      
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE STORM                          
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  RATHER LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST                     
THE MODELS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF THIS STORM.  THE LATEST                      
ECMWF HAS THE STORM TRACKING THROUGH SW LOWER MI AND THE TRACK                  
OF THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE SUGGEST A MIX POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH                    
CENTRAL LOWER MI.  THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH OH...WITH A                   
SOLUTION THAT FAVORS SNOW.  THE GLOBAL GEM SHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO              
TO THE GFS.  AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN THE SNOW SCENARIO FOR THIS             
EVENT.  PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AND WILL RAISE POPS ON                 
FRI.                                                                            
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WED NIGHT FORECAST.  THE LATEST NAM SHOWS A            
WEAK WAVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.               
TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.  THE GFS...GLOBAL GEM               
AND ECMWF DO NOT HAVE THIS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1243 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                       
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS                
WILL THEN LOWER AND THICKEN GOING INTO THE EVENING... WITH SOME RAIN            
ARRIVING BY 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR BETWEEN 00Z AND                
03Z. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE AFTER 00Z. THIS MAY LEAD TO             
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                         
GALE WARNING DELAYED (WILL NOT GO INTO EFFECT UNTIL 18Z THIS AFTN               
RATHER THAN 12Z) AND EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z WED AFTER COORD W/LOT AND             
IWX.  GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. WE                 
BELIEVE A LULL IN WIND SPEEDS IS PROBABLE TUE MORNING/AFTN UNTIL                
FROPA. HOWEVER GALES WILL RETURN IN FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE            
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH STORM FORCE TUE NIGHT. FUTURE SHIFTS            
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND MODEL TRENDS REGARDING WIND                       
SPEEDS/GUSTS CLOSELY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                      
SOME ICE JAMMING WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON VARIOUS RIVERS IN OUR              
HSA. HIGH STAGES AND/OR SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS ARE            
POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDWEEK DUE TO ICE JAM ISSUES. WARM TEMPS AND                 
RAINFALL WILL MELT SOME SNOW COVER AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGHER             
RIVER LEVELS MID TO LATE WEEK.                                                  
HOWEVER THIS SITUATION WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WITH THE MUCH                
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WE HAD SEVERAL WEEKS AGO. WE DO NOT                     
ANTICIPATE NEARLY AS RAPID A SNOW MELT SINCE THIS TIME TEMPS                    
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S... WITH LOWER DEW POINTS             
TOO. FURTHERMORE BASIN AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY AVG AROUND AN INCH OR             
LESS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO             
MONITOR ALL THIS VERY CLOSELY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING ST JOE TO MANISTEE 18Z THIS AFTN TO 12Z WED.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:   LAURENS                                                             
SHORT TERM: LAURENS/OSTUNO                                                      
LONG TERM:  MJS                                                                 
AVIATION:   IOD                                                                 
MARINE:     LAURENS                                                             
HYDROLOGY:  LAURENS                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1235 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...                                                   
.SYNOPSIS...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                       
IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN                 
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
STATES TODAY TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THIS                  
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.             
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER AND               
VERY WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1235 PM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                    
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)                                             
MADE TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS AS SOME LOW TO MID 40S OCCURRING ACROSS THE            
WESTERN CWA AND TEMPS SHOULD REACH 40S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON               
BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES. WILL PROBABLY BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES            
FOR TUESDAY WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE...BUT WINDS               
AND SNOW TUESDAY EVENING WILL NEED HEADLINES. REST OF PREVIOUS                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                                    
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS             
A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY             
12Z TUE. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT                
NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. HOWEVER 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND 13KM             
RUC PROGGED SFC WIND GUSTS SUGGEST GUSTS AND CERTAINLY SUSTAINED                
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADV CRITERIA.                                     
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL COME TUE AND TUE NIGHT. WE               
EXPECT A BAND OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO RACE                  
ACROSS OUR CWFA BETWEEN AROUND 20Z TUE AND 00Z WED. AN NCFR IS                  
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THAT TIME FRAME WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE                 
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN KINEMATIC PROFILES AT THAT TIME.                      
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT.             
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. HIGH WIND GUSTS            
OF AT LEAST 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWFA TUE NIGHT WITH            
HIGHEST GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 65 MPH ALONG THE LAKE MI                     
SHORELINE.                                                                      
WE ALREADY STRONGLY CONSIDERED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR OUR CWFA FOR               
TUE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY FOR OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES). ULTIMATELY AFTER             
COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE FELT IT WAS A BIT EARLY FOR THIS              
HEADLINE. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO CONSIDER THIS AND               
MONITOR FUTURE GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSELY.                                         
VERY STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RAPID                    
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE              
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY IF THE SECONDARY              
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPS AS 00Z GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. I BELIEVE              
THAT THIS SNOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND PLUMMETING             
SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIPPERY TO ICY ROAD CONDITIONS AND             
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.                                 
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN SPITE              
OF THE VERY STRONG CAA AND PLUMMETING 850 MB TEMPS. THE VERY STRONG             
WINDS WILL REALLY LIMIT AIRMASS RESIDENCE TIME OVER LAKE MI AND                 
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CRASH WHICH WILL REALLY INHIBIT LES                      
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE ACHIEVED AT 05Z WED. WE WILL INDICATE STEADY              
TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE NDFD TEMP STRINGS FOR WED WITH                   
APPARENT TEMP VALUES FALLING TO NEAR TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO BY                 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                      
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE STORM                          
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  RATHER LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST                     
THE MODELS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF THIS STORM.  THE LATEST                      
ECMWF HAS THE STORM TRACKING THROUGH SW LOWER MI AND THE TRACK                  
OF THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE SUGGEST A MIX POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH                    
CENTRAL LOWER MI.  THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH OH...WITH A                   
SOLUTION THAT FAVORS SNOW.  THE GLOBAL GEM SHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO              
TO THE GFS.  AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN THE SNOW SCENARIO FOR THIS             
EVENT.  PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AND WILL RAISE POPS ON                 
FRI.                                                                            
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WED NIGHT FORECAST.  THE LATEST NAM SHOWS A            
WEAK WAVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.               
TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.  THE GFS...GLOBAL GEM               
AND ECMWF DO NOT HAVE THIS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(630 AM EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                        
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SOME              
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND NOON.  CLOUDS WILL THEN                 
LOWER AND THICKEN GOING INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING              
BY 00Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR BETWEEN 00Z AND               
06Z. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE AFT 00Z.  THIS MAY LEAD TO              
SOME WIND SHEAR.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                         
GALE WARNING DELAYED (WILL NOT GO INTO EFFECT UNTIL 18Z THIS AFTN               
RATHER THAN 12Z) AND EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z WED AFTER COORD W/LOT AND             
IWX.  GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. WE                 
BELIEVE A LULL IN WIND SPEEDS IS PROBABLE TUE MORNING/AFTN UNTIL                
FROPA. HOWEVER GALES WILL RETURN IN FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE            
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH STORM FORCE TUE NIGHT. FUTURE SHIFTS            
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND MODEL TRENDS REGARDING WIND                       
SPEEDS/GUSTS CLOSELY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                      
SOME ICE JAMMING WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON VARIOUS RIVERS IN OUR              
HSA. HIGH STAGES AND/OR SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS ARE            
POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDWEEK DUE TO ICE JAM ISSUES. WARM TEMPS AND                 
RAINFALL WILL MELT SOME SNOW COVER AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGHER             
RIVER LEVELS MID TO LATE WEEK.                                                  
HOWEVER THIS SITUATION WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WITH THE MUCH                
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WE HAD SEVERAL WEEKS AGO. WE DO NOT                     
ANTICIPATE NEARLY AS RAPID A SNOW MELT SINCE THIS TIME TEMPS                    
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S... WITH LOWER DEW POINTS             
TOO. FURTHERMORE BASIN AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY AVG AROUND AN INCH OR             
LESS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO             
MONITOR ALL THIS VERY CLOSELY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING ST JOE TO MANISTEE 18Z THIS AFTN TO 12Z WED.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:   LAURENS                                                             
SHORT TERM: LAURENS/OSTUNO                                                      
LONG TERM:  MJS                                                                 
AVIATION:   MJS                                                                 
MARINE:     LAURENS                                                             
HYDROLOGY:  LAURENS                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1125 AM EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY WITH                
REGARDS TO PCPN POTENTIAL.                                                      
15Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED GENERAL               
UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW...BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A              
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. PLENTY             
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR...WHICH VISIBLE SATELLITE             
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATES IS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH                 
CLOUDS. BELOW THESE HIGH CLOUDS...12Z RAOB AND TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ARE             
QUITE DRY...WITH 10-20C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE REGION                  
BETWEEN 900-500MB. THE SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN              
900-850MB THANKS TO 850MB TEMPS OF 3C AT APX...7C AT GRB AND 12C AT             
MPX. NORMALLY THIS INVERSION WOULD MEAN TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS OVER THE             
AREA. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MOST SURFACE OBS (EXCLUDING SAW)            
SHOW VERY FEW IF ANY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES.              
THIS APPEARS MOSTLY DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH              
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY ON THE WAY UP NOW WITH MOST READINGS IN THE             
25 TO 30 F RANGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS...NEAR 40...ARE MOVING NORTHEAST             
THROUGH KS INTO SW IA ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. 850MB WINDS ARE SW             
AT 60-65 KT AT PROFILERS ACROSS KS INTO NORTHERN MO. AT THE                     
SURFACE...A 987MB LOW IS SITUATED NEAR BISMARCK...WITH ALL OF THE               
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WARM SECTOR.               
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...AM            
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON ANY PCPN OCCURRING TODAY. FOLLOWED THE DRIER                
NAM/RUC SCENARIO OVER THE GFS AS THEY SEEM TO BE DOING BETTER WITH              
RESPECT TO MOISTURE IN CURRENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. PLUS...                        
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THE WARM SECTOR OF A SYSTEM IN WINTER IS              
NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN BECAUSE MOISTURE IS HARDER TO COME BY.              
THEREFORE MADE A SOMEWHAT DRASTIC CHANGE AND WENT COMPLETELY DRY FOR            
TODAY. RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY GIVEN CURRENT READINGS ARE NEAR                    
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TEMPER READINGS FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH.              
AS FAR AS TONIGHT GOES...WANTED TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT            
THERE IS A BIT MORE DYNAMICAL FORCING TAKING PLACE. OVER THE WESTERN            
U.P....MODELS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND POSSIBLE JET            
COUPLING TAKING PLACE...WHICH COULD FORCE SATURATION AND PCPN. IN               
THE FAR EASTERN U.P....ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING UP THROUGH MISSOURI               
INTO ILLINOIS (NOTED BY THICK MID-CLOUDS THERE) HEADS NORTHEAST AND             
COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCPN. THE CENTRAL U.P. GETS STUCK                      
IN-BETWEEN PERHAPS INTO A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL SOMEWHAT               
HEDGE THE GOING FORECAST TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO...WITH MORE CHANGES              
FORTHCOMING ONCE THE 12Z GFS COMES IN TO SEE IF IT HANDLES THE                  
MOISTURE BETTER.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE STORM POTENTIAL              
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE                  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A FLATTEN RIDGE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION. A                
CLOSED LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK               
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...NORTH DAKOTA...AND WYOMING.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT              
LEADING IT STRETCHING INTO ILLINOIS. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS             
FROM WINNIPEG EAST TO JAMES BAY. AN ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHES FROM              
GEORGIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THERE IS SOME FOG OVER THE              
EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.                            
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS TODAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WORKS                
NORTHEAST. THE SHORTWAVE CLIMBING THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY STAY                 
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING                 
WHICH WILL RACE UP THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.             
THE NOSE OF A 100+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN U.P.            
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW OVER MONTANA WILL CATCH UP WITH              
THE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MERGE AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN                   
MINNESOTA. THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN.               
THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST APPEARS TO BE STEERING                      
EVERYTHING NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT               
THE EASTERN CONUS DRAWING WARM AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS            
SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE U.P.               
TODAY. THE INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD             
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERATE                    
PRECIPITATION. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY              
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILE            
AND WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MIX OF             
RAIN AND SNOW. A 50KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA TODAY. THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO MIX SOME OF              
THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.                                                     
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES WITH THE NAM ONLY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE                   
CONSENSUS AND THE UKMET SLIGHTLY SLOWER. AS SUGGESTED BY HPC WILL GO            
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE                
DAKOTA AND CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF              
THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL            
MOVE OUT OF MINNESOTA AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MIDNIGHT DRAGGING             
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS AT                
THAT TIME WILL BEGIN TO VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST. ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WARM MOISTURE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RAINS            
OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...COLD             
AIR WILL ADVECT IN AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN U.P.            
THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA. A SECONDARY             
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL WORK NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT             
AND REACH EASTERN IOWA BY SUNRISE.                                              
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH MINNESOTA AND EASTERN MANITOBA BY                
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL                
SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO                 
NORTHEAST ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THE             
SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE FRONT AND WILL REACH NORTHERN LOWER                   
MICHIGAN BY LATE TUESDAY. A -32C 850MB THERMAL WILL SHIFT INTO                  
MINNESOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE COLD               
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW             
BY LATE MORNING. THE TIGHT GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE             
THE WINDS OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW BY LATE            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.             
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD            
FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR. A 40KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST             
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE MIXING SOME            
OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL             
GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND BLOWING SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WEST                
END. A WINTER STORMS WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED. WIND CHILLS COULD REACH            
ADVISORY CATEGORY LATE. SINCE IT COULD BE AN ADVISORY WILL HOLD OFF             
ON ISSUING IT AT THIS TIME.                                                     
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN               
QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKEWISE SWING INTO QUEBEC            
WHILE THE RIDGE PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                  
VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT            
LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS WELL. THE                   
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LAKE EFFECT               
SNOWS. THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SO EXPECT TO SEE              
MORE BLOWING SNOW. WITH THE TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS IT WILL                     
BE...EXPECT TO SEE FINER FLAKES WHICH WITH THE WINDS WILL REDUCE                
VISIBILITY GREATLY. THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN             
PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO SIGNIFICANT LES                
OVER THE LUCE...ALGER AND EVEN NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
UPDATE FOR SAW...AMENDED THE TAF AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE COMPLETELY                  
DISSIPATED. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND AREA TAMDARS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR               
EVEN IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY               
WIND HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT. HAVE STILL FOLLOWED THE             
IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS COMING IN...BUT NOT UNTIL 01Z. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE            
A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC. MORE DETAILS COMING WITH THE 18Z TAF                  
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                 
TRICKY FCST FOR SAW WITH SHALLOW INVRN AND SOME LO CLD/FOG UPSTREAM             
TO THE S. TENDED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH LO CLD AS UPSLOPE SLY             
FLOW THERE WL TEND TO MAINTAIN HI RH IN SHALLOW COLD WEDGE THAT                 
MIGHT HAVE DIFFICULTY MIXING OUT COMPLETELY. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF              
PCPN IS LIKELY LATE TDAY/THIS EVNG AS SOMEWHAT HIER MSTR IS                     
STREAMING NEWD FM THE SRN PLAINS...BUT PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LGT                
SIDE WITH PERSISTENT DRY MID LVLS TRYING TO HANG ON. COOLING OF                 
LLVLS TNGT WL MAINTAIN MORE LO CLD/FOG AND PSBLY SOME FZDZ AT SAW.              
THE FCST FOR CMX IS A BIT MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD AS UPSRTREAM AIRMASS            
TO THE SSW IS WARMED/DRIED BY DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIER TERRAIN.                 
SO... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THERE THRU THE DAY. APRCH            
OF LO PRES TO THE NW OF LK SUP TNGT MAY RESULT IN A PD OF                       
RASN...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS LLVLS BEGIN TO MOISTEN.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LO PRES DVLPG IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MRNG TO MOVE INTO              
MN THIS EVENING AND THEN ONTARIO ON TUE MRNG WHILE DEEPENING. SLY               
GALES HAVE DVLPD AS FCST OVER ECNTRL LK SUP...AND THESE WL CONTINUE             
INTO TNGT BEFORE PRES GRADIENT GRDLY EASES LATE TNGT. A STRONG                  
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE AS THE LO MOVES TO            
NEAR JAMES BAY IN THE EVNG. ANOTHER LO PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ON THE             
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUE AND MOVE INTO SE              
CAN AND INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. GALE TO STORM FORCE W TO NW WINDS               
AND HEAVY FRZG SPRAY WL DVLP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FNT AND THE                
DVLPG LO ON THIS BNDRY AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES OVER LK SUP. PLAN ON THE            
STRONGEST WINDS FM THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE TO THE E. AS THE LO             
CONTINUES NE ON THU...A HI PRES RDG WL BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT             
LAKES. ON FRI...A DEVELOPING LO OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS                    
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY               
     FOR MIZ001>003.                                                            
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY               
     FOR MIZ006>007-085.                                                        
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.             
LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST                
TUESDAY FOR      LMZ248-250.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC/AJ                                                                
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
650 AM EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                                            
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE STORM POTENTIAL              
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE                  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A FLATTEN RIDGE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION. A                
CLOSED LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK               
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...NORTH DAKOTA...AND WYOMING.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT              
LEADING IT STRETCHING INTO ILLINOIS. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS             
FROM WINNIPEG EAST TO JAMES BAY. AN ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHES FROM              
GEORGIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THERE IS SOME FOG OVER THE              
EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.                            
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS TODAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WORKS                
NORTHEAST. THE SHORTWAVE CLIMBING THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY STAY                 
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING                 
WHICH WILL RACE UP THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.             
THE NOSE OF A 100+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN U.P.            
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW OVER MONTANA WILL CATCH UP WITH              
THE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MERGE AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN                   
MINNESOTA. THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN.               
THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST APPEARS TO BE STEERING                      
EVERYTHING NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT               
THE EASTERN CONUS DRAWING WARM AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS            
SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE U.P.               
TODAY. THE INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD             
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERATE                    
PRECIPITATION. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY              
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILE            
AND WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MIX OF             
RAIN AND SNOW. A 50KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA TODAY. THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO MIX SOME OF              
THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.                                                     
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES WITH THE NAM ONLY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE                   
CONSENSUS AND THE UKMET SLIGHTLY SLOWER. AS SUGGESTED BY HPC WILL GO            
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE                
DAKOTA AND CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF              
THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL            
MOVE OUT OF MINNESOTA AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MIDNIGHT DRAGGING             
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS AT                
THAT TIME WILL BEGIN TO VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST. ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WARM MOISTURE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RAINS            
OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...COLD             
AIR WILL ADVECT IN AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN U.P.            
THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA. A SECONDARY             
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL WORK NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT             
AND REACH EASTERN IOWA BY SUNRISE.                                              
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH MINNESOTA AND EASTERN MANITOBA BY                
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL                
SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO                 
NORTHEAST ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THE             
SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE FRONT AND WILL REACH NORTHERN LOWER                   
MICHIGAN BY LATE TUESDAY. A -32C 850MB THERMAL WILL SHIFT INTO                  
MINNESOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE COLD               
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW             
BY LATE MORNING. THE TIGHT GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE             
THE WINDS OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW BY LATE            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.             
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD            
FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR. A 40KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST             
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE MIXING SOME            
OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL             
GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND BLOWING SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WEST                
END. A WINTER STORMS WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED. WIND CHILLS COULD REACH            
ADVISORY CATEGORY LATE. SINCE IT COULD BE AN ADVISORY WILL HOLD OFF             
ON ISSUING IT AT THIS TIME.                                                     
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN               
QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKEWISE SWING INTO QUEBEC            
WHILE THE RIDGE PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                  
VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT            
LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS WELL. THE                   
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LAKE EFFECT               
SNOWS. THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SO EXPECT TO SEE              
MORE BLOWING SNOW. WITH THE TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS IT WILL                     
BE...EXPECT TO SEE FINER FLAKES WHICH WITH THE WINDS WILL REDUCE                
VISIBILITY GREATLY. THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN             
PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO SIGNIFICANT LES                
OVER THE LUCE...ALGER AND EVEN NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TRICKY FCST FOR SAW WITH SHALLOW INVRN AND SOME LO CLD/FOG UPSTREAM             
TO THE S. TENDED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH LO CLD AS UPSLOPE SLY             
FLOW THERE WL TEND TO MAINTAIN HI RH IN SHALLOW COLD WEDGE THAT                 
MIGHT HAVE DIFFICULTY MIXING OUT COMPLETELY. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF              
PCPN IS LIKELY LATE TDAY/THIS EVNG AS SOMEWHAT HIER MSTR IS                     
STREAMING NEWD FM THE SRN PLAINS...BUT PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LGT                
SIDE WITH PERSISTENT DRY MID LVLS TRYING TO HANG ON. COOLING OF                 
LLVLS TNGT WL MAINTAIN MORE LO CLD/FOG AND PSBLY SOME FZDZ AT SAW.              
THE FCST FOR CMX IS A BIT MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD AS UPSRTREAM AIRMASS            
TO THE SSW IS WARMED/DRIED BY DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIER TERRAIN.                 
SO... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THERE THRU THE DAY. APRCH            
OF LO PRES TO THE NW OF LK SUP TNGT MAY RESULT IN A PD OF                       
RASN...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS LLVLS BEGIN TO MOISTEN.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LO PRES DVLPG IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MRNG TO MOVE INTO              
MN THIS EVENING AND THEN ONTARIO ON TUE MRNG WHILE DEEPENING. SLY               
GALES HAVE DVLPD AS FCST OVER ECNTRL LK SUP...AND THESE WL CONTINUE             
INTO TNGT BEFORE PRES GRADIENT GRDLY EASES LATE TNGT. A STRONG                  
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE AS THE LO MOVES TO            
NEAR JAMES BAY IN THE EVNG. ANOTHER LO PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ON THE             
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUE AND MOVE INTO SE              
CAN AND INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. GALE TO STORM FORCE W TO NW WINDS               
AND HEAVY FRZG SPRAY WL DVLP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FNT AND THE                
DVLPG LO ON THIS BNDRY AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES OVER LK SUP. PLAN ON THE            
STRONGEST WINDS FM THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE TO THE E. AS THE LO             
CONTINUES NE ON THU...A HI PRES RDG WL BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT             
LAKES. ON FRI...A DEVELOPING LO OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS                    
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY               
     FOR MIZ001>003.                                                            
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY               
     FOR MIZ006>007-085.                                                        
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.             
LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST                
TUESDAY FOR      LMZ248-250.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
443 AM EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE STORM POTENTIAL              
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE                  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A FLATTEN RIDGE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION. A                
CLOSED LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK               
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...NORTH DAKOTA...AND WYOMING.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT              
LEADING IT STRETCHING INTO ILLINOIS. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS             
FROM WINNIPEG EAST TO JAMES BAY. AN ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHES FROM              
GEORGIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THERE IS SOME FOG OVER THE              
EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.                            
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS TODAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WORKS                
NORTHEAST. THE SHORTWAVE CLIMBING THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY STAY                 
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING                 
WHICH WILL RACE UP THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.             
THE NOSE OF A 100+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN U.P.            
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW OVER MONTANA WILL CATCH UP WITH              
THE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MERGE AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN                   
MINNESOTA. THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN.               
THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST APPEARS TO BE STEERING                      
EVERYTHING NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT               
THE EASTERN CONUS DRAWING WARM AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS            
SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE U.P.               
TODAY. THE INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD             
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERATE                    
PRECIPITATION. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY              
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILE            
AND WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MIX OF             
RAIN AND SNOW. A 50KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA TODAY. THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO MIX SOME OF              
THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.                                                     
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES WITH THE NAM ONLY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE                   
CONSENSUS AND THE UKMET SLIGHTLY SLOWER. AS SUGGESTED BY HPC WILL GO            
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE                
DAKOTA AND CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF              
THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL            
MOVE OUT OF MINNESOTA AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MIDNIGHT DRAGGING             
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS AT                
THAT TIME WILL BEGIN TO VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST. ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WARM MOISTURE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RAINS            
OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...COLD             
AIR WILL ADVECT IN AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN U.P.            
THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA. A SECONDARY             
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL WORK NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT             
AND REACH EASTERN IOWA BY SUNRISE.                                              
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH MINNESOTA AND EASTERN MANITOBA BY                
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL                
SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO                 
NORTHEAST ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THE             
SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE FRONT AND WILL REACH NORTHERN LOWER                   
MICHIGAN BY LATE TUESDAY. A -32C 850MB THERMAL WILL SHIFT INTO                  
MINNESOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE COLD               
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW             
BY LATE MORNING. THE TIGHT GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE             
THE WINDS OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW BY LATE            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.             
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD            
FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR. A 40KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST             
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE MIXING SOME            
OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL             
GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND BLOWING SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WEST                
END. A WINTER STORMS WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED. WIND CHILLS COULD REACH            
ADVISORY CATEGORY LATE. SINCE IT COULD BE AN ADVISORY WILL HOLD OFF             
ON ISSUING IT AT THIS TIME.                                                     
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN               
QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKEWISE SWING INTO QUEBEC            
WHILE THE RIDGE PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                  
VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT            
LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS WELL. THE                   
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LAKE EFFECT               
SNOWS. THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SO EXPECT TO SEE              
MORE BLOWING SNOW. WITH THE TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS IT WILL                     
BE...EXPECT TO SEE FINER FLAKES WHICH WITH THE WINDS WILL REDUCE                
VISIBILITY GREATLY. THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN             
PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO SIGNIFICANT LES                
OVER THE LUCE...ALGER AND EVEN NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LLJ MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT BOTH TAF SITES                  
THROUGH MID MORNING AT WHICH TIME DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD HELP BRING              
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST                 
UNTIL MID-LATE MON AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES. BY 21Z...LOW TO MID             
LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATE WITH INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF NORTHERN PLAINS             
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LOW PRES SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP            
AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT PRECIP BEGINNING.  WARMER LOW-LEVELS OF                 
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN AS PREDOMINANT PCPN              
TYPE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE            
COOLING TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FM 21-24Z FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW               
AND MVFR VSBYS. BY EVENING...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE IFR              
CATEGORY AS ARRIVAL OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES TROUGH BRING            
A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LO PRES DVLPG IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MRNG TO MOVE INTO              
MN THIS EVENING AND THEN ONTARIO ON TUE MRNG WHILE DEEPENING. SLY               
GALES HAVE DVLPD AS FCST OVER ECNTRL LK SUP...AND THESE WL CONTINUE             
INTO TNGT BEFORE PRES GRADIENT GRDLY EASES LATE TNGT. A STRONG                  
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE AS THE LO MOVES TO            
NEAR JAMES BAY IN THE EVNG. ANOTHER LO PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ON THE             
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE ON TUE AND MOVE INTO SE              
CAN AND INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. GALE TO STORM FORCE W TO NW WINDS               
AND HEAVY FRZG SPRAY WL DVLP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FNT AND THE                
DVLPG LO ON THIS BNDRY AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES OVER LK SUP. PLAN ON THE            
STRONGEST WINDS FM THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE TO THE E. AS THE LO             
CONTINUES NE ON THU...A HI PRES RDG WL BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT             
LAKES. ON FRI...A DEVELOPING LO OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS                    
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY               
     FOR MIZ001>003.                                                            
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY               
     FOR MIZ006>007-085.                                                        
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.             
LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST                
TUESDAY FOR      LMZ248-250.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...ALL EXCEPT AVIATION...                                          
.SYNOPSIS...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                       
IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN                 
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
STATES TODAY TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THIS                  
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.             
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER AND               
VERY WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                     
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)                                             
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS             
A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY             
12Z TUE. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT                
NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. HOWEVER 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND 13KM             
RUC PROGGED SFC WIND GUSTS SUGGEST GUSTS AND CERTAINLY SUSTAINED                
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADV CRITERIA.                                     
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL COME TUE AND TUE NIGHT. WE               
EXPECT A BAND OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO RACE                  
ACROSS OUR CWFA BETWEEN AROUND 20Z TUE AND 00Z WED. AN NCFR IS                  
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THAT TIME FRAME WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE                 
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN KINEMATIC PROFILES AT THAT TIME.                      
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT.             
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. HIGH WIND GUSTS            
OF AT LEAST 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWFA TUE NIGHT WITH            
HIGHEST GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 65 MPH ALONG THE LAKE MI                     
SHORELINE.                                                                      
WE ALREADY STRONGLY CONSIDERED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR OUR CWFA FOR               
TUE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY FOR OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES). ULTIMATELY AFTER             
COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE FELT IT WAS A BIT EARLY FOR THIS              
HEADLINE. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO CONSIDER THIS AND               
MONITOR FUTURE GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSELY.                                         
VERY STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RAPID                    
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE              
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY IF THE SECONDARY              
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPS AS 00Z GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. I BELIEVE              
THAT THIS SNOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND PLUMMETING             
SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIPPERY TO ICY ROAD CONDITIONS AND             
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.                                 
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN SPITE              
OF THE VERY STRONG CAA AND PLUMMETING 850 MB TEMPS. THE VERY STRONG             
WINDS WILL REALLY LIMIT AIRMASS RESIDENCE TIME OVER LAKE MI AND                 
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CRASH WHICH WILL REALLY INHIBIT LES                      
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE ACHIEVED AT 05Z WED. WE WILL INDICATE STEADY              
TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE NDFD TEMP STRINGS FOR WED WITH                   
APPARENT TEMP VALUES FALLING TO NEAR TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO BY                 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                      
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE STORM                          
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  RATHER LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST                     
THE MODELS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF THIS STORM.  THE LATEST                      
ECMWF HAS THE STORM TRACKING THROUGH SW LOWER MI AND THE TRACK                  
OF THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE SUGGEST A MIX POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH                    
CENTRAL LOWER MI.  THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH OH...WITH A                   
SOLUTION THAT FAVORS SNOW.  THE GLOBAL GEM SHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO              
TO THE GFS.  AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN THE SNOW SCENARIO FOR THIS             
EVENT.  PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AND WILL RAISE POPS ON                 
FRI.                                                                            
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WED NIGHT FORECAST.  THE LATEST NAM SHOWS A            
WEAK WAVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.               
TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.  THE GFS...GLOBAL GEM               
AND ECMWF DO NOT HAVE THIS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1134 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2008)                                       
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GRR CWA              
AS OF 11 PM.  SEEMS THE LOW LEVEL "JET" ABOVE THE DISCONNECTED AIR              
BELOW RADIATION INVERSION HAS INCREASED WINDS NEAR 1500 AGL TO NEAR             
20 KNOTS...BASED ON THE LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOCAL AREA.            
THAT HAS KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. DEW POINTS DOWN TO I-80 AT 11             
PM WERE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. THAT AIR IS NOT MOIST ENOUGH TO                 
RESULT IN ADVECTION FOG. BOTTOM LINE IS 3 TO 5 MILE VIS INTO MID                
MORNING WITH JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES.                             
THE WARM ADVECTION RAIN EVENT BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 4 PM.               
CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES. MONDAY WILL BE WINDY AS THE            
925 MB WIND IS 50 KNOTS BY 18Z. THUS THE TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOUTH              
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS BY MID DAY MONDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                         
GALE WARNING DELAYED (WILL NOT GO INTO EFFECT UNTIL 18Z THIS AFTN               
RATHER THAN 12Z) AND EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z WED AFTER COORD W/LOT AND             
IWX.  GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. WE                 
BELIEVE A LULL IN WIND SPEEDS IS PROBABLE TUE MORNING/AFTN UNTIL                
FROPA. HOWEVER GALES WILL RETURN IN FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE            
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH STORM FORCE TUE NIGHT. FUTURE SHIFTS            
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND MODEL TRENDS REGARDING WIND                       
SPEEDS/GUSTS CLOSELY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(400 AM  EST MON JAN 28 2008)                                      
SOME ICE JAMMING WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON VARIOUS RIVERS IN OUR              
HSA. HIGH STAGES AND/OR SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS ARE            
POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDWEEK DUE TO ICE JAM ISSUES. WARM TEMPS AND                 
RAINFALL WILL MELT SOME SNOW COVER AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGHER             
RIVER LEVELS MID TO LATE WEEK.                                                  
HOWEVER THIS SITUATION WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WITH THE MUCH                
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WE HAD SEVERAL WEEKS AGO. WE DO NOT                     
ANTICIPATE NEARLY AS RAPID A SNOW MELT SINCE THIS TIME TEMPS                    
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S... WITH LOWER DEW POINTS             
TOO. FURTHERMORE BASIN AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY AVG AROUND AN INCH OR             
LESS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO             
MONITOR ALL THIS VERY CLOSELY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING ST JOE TO MANISTEE 18Z THIS AFTN TO 12Z WED.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:   LAURENS                                                             
SHORT TERM: LAURENS                                                             
LONG TERM:  MJS                                                                 
AVIATION:   WDM                                                                 
MARINE:     LAURENS                                                             
HYDROLOGY:  LAURENS                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1237 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION                                                  
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER...AS WE WERE WAY TOO            
HIGH EARLY ON TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MADE CLOUD CHANGES THROUGH                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOR THE NEAR            
TERM.  MAY HAVE NOT GONE LOW ENOUGH...BUT TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE              
SLOWLY ERODING FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                
OTHERWISE...INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FAR SOUTH AND SLOWED DOWN THE              
APPROACH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST.  WILL            
REVISIT THIS WITH THE FULL AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE PRECIPITATION AND            
WIND POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE                   
WEST COAST...A BROAD RIDGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND ANOTHER                 
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE OVER                     
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE            
OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A LOW TROUGH THROUGH THE                  
EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MICHIGAN...AND A LOW OVER                   
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE                 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. FOG AND SNOW IS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO             
RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.                          
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. A BROAD RIDGE            
WILL FOLLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL                
RACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA REACHING SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN BY                 
LATE AFTERNOON WHILE PUSHING A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT INTO WESTERN              
WISCONSIN. A SOUTHWEST FLOW NORTH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY HIGH WILL HELP BRING THE TEMPERATURES UP TODAY TO AROUND 30.             
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE AIR MASS             
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF             
PICKING UP SOME CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SOME LOW CLOUDS.                  
AS HPC SUGGEST THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR             
THE SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS LED SOLUTION                 
BECOMES THE PREFERRED.                                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK            
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK               
EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST. THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL SETTLE                    
SOUTHWARD INTO MONTANA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WEST OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE             
WILL CONTINUE TO POUR WARMER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER SPARSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS            
SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY            
OVER THE WEST...AND MID LEVEL CLOUD AS WELL. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING             
A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 2K FEET AND VERY DRY FROM THERE TO 500MB.             
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST COAST WHILE A WEST COAST              
LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON                    
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND                 
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG                    
INVERSION AROUND 850MB...AND NEARLY SATURATED BELOW THIS LEVEL AND              
DRY FROM 850 TO 600MB. TEMPERATURES AROUND 750MB WILL BE 3C TO                  
7C...WHILE THOSE AT 900MB WILL BE -2C TO -4C. WHILE SURFACE                     
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND ZERO. THUS CONDITIONS STILL LOOK                  
FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME FOG.                             
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT             
PUSHING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL             
LIFT INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA THEN INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR            
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND               
WESTERN WISCONSIN. WARM AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE              
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE            
REGION FEEDING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST              
TO JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE               
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL                  
SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL PUSH              
-26C TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL              
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXPERIENCE SOME ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. SOME OF THE A LOW LEVEL JET SWEEPING                
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL MIX TO SURFACE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
PRODUCING SOME GALES OVER THE LAKE AND ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. INLAND             
CAN STILL EXPERIENCE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.                                       
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST INTO QUEBEC AND             
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN.              
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT                
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. HOWEVER...THE DELTA-T`S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
WILL REMAIN AROUND 26C...WHICH WILL CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE             
LOW LEVELS TO KEEP LES GOING. THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST            
CAUSING LES OVER AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN                
U.P. ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SLOWED DOWN THE APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                
KEPT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LLWS WITH THE DEVELOPING LLJ TONIGHT INTO            
MID MORNING BEFORE HIGHER WINDS ABOVE SFC ARE TAPPED.                           
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION MAY STILL HOLD OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE            
END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE AT CMX...AS LOW             
TO MID LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATE...SO HAVE ADDED PRECIP FOR 17Z.  HAVE             
ALSO HINTED AT MORNING BR BEFORE STRONGER WINDS TAKE EFFECT.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A WEAK HI PRES RDG TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS TDAY                  
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY MON. MEANWHILE...A LO             
PRES SYS WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE NRN PLAINS ON MON AND MOVE INTO MN              
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LO WL BE DEEP ENUF TO CAUSE S GALES OVER THE E            
HALF OF LK SUP LATE TNGT THRU MON NGT...SO ISSUED GALE WRNG FOR                 
THOSE AREAS WHERE S GALES ARE ALMOST CERTAIN. LOOK FOR THE LO TO                
MOVE INTO ONTARIO ON TUE AND DRIVE A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS LK                 
SUP...WITH WNW GALES IN ITS WAKE AS H85 THERMAL TROF DRIVES OVHD                
COINCIDENT WITH SHARP PRES GRADIENT. HEAVY FRZG SPRAY WL RETURN. AS             
THIS LO SLIDES INTO QUEBEC ON WED AND DEEPENS...A HI PRES RDG WL BLD            
INTO THE NRN PLAINS THRU THU.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY               
FOR LSZ266-267.                                                                 
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KF                                                                     
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1048 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER...AS WE WERE WAY TOO            
HIGH EARLY ON TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MADE CLOUD CHANGES THROUGH                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOR THE NEAR            
TERM.  MAY HAVE NOT GONE LOW ENOUGH...BUT TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE              
SLOWLY ERODING FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                
OTHERWISE...INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FAR SOUTH AND SLOWED DOWN THE              
APPROACH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY MORNING CENTRAL AND EAST.  WILL            
REVISIT THIS WITH THE FULL AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE PRECIPITATION AND            
WIND POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE                   
WEST COAST...A BROAD RIDGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND ANOTHER                 
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE OVER                     
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE            
OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A LOW TROUGH THROUGH THE                  
EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MICHIGAN...AND A LOW OVER                   
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE                 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. FOG AND SNOW IS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO             
RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.                          
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. A BROAD RIDGE            
WILL FOLLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL                
RACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA REACHING SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN BY                 
LATE AFTERNOON WHILE PUSHING A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT INTO WESTERN              
WISCONSIN. A SOUTHWEST FLOW NORTH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY HIGH WILL HELP BRING THE TEMPERATURES UP TODAY TO AROUND 30.             
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE AIR MASS             
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF             
PICKING UP SOME CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SOME LOW CLOUDS.                  
AS HPC SUGGEST THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR             
THE SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS LED SOLUTION                 
BECOMES THE PREFERRED.                                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK            
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK               
EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST. THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL SETTLE                    
SOUTHWARD INTO MONTANA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WEST OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE             
WILL CONTINUE TO POUR WARMER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER SPARSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS            
SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY            
OVER THE WEST...AND MID LEVEL CLOUD AS WELL. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING             
A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 2K FEET AND VERY DRY FROM THERE TO 500MB.             
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST COAST WHILE A WEST COAST              
LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON                    
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND                 
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG                    
INVERSION AROUND 850MB...AND NEARLY SATURATED BELOW THIS LEVEL AND              
DRY FROM 850 TO 600MB. TEMPERATURES AROUND 750MB WILL BE 3C TO                  
7C...WHILE THOSE AT 900MB WILL BE -2C TO -4C. WHILE SURFACE                     
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND ZERO. THUS CONDITIONS STILL LOOK                  
FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME FOG.                             
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT             
PUSHING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL             
LIFT INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA THEN INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR            
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND               
WESTERN WISCONSIN. WARM AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE              
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE            
REGION FEEDING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST              
TO JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE               
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL                  
SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL PUSH              
-26C TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL              
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXPERIENCE SOME ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. SOME OF THE A LOW LEVEL JET SWEEPING                
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL MIX TO SURFACE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
PRODUCING SOME GALES OVER THE LAKE AND ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. INLAND             
CAN STILL EXPERIENCE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.                                       
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST INTO QUEBEC AND             
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN.              
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT                
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. HOWEVER...THE DELTA-T`S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
WILL REMAIN AROUND 26C...WHICH WILL CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE             
LOW LEVELS TO KEEP LES GOING. THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST            
CAUSING LES OVER AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN                
U.P. ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT LO CLDS TO GRDLY DSPT AT CMX/SAW THIS MRNG WITH LOWERING                 
SUBSIDENCE INVRN. THERE WL BE PLENTY OF HI CLD THRU THE AFTN...BUT              
UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY DRY IN THE LO LVLS FOR VFR                     
CONDITIONS. DVLPG LLJ TNGT TO THE E OF DVLPG LO PRES IN THE NRN                 
PLAINS WL CAUSE LLWS AT BOTH TAF SITES BY LATE THIS EVNG.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A WEAK HI PRES RDG TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS TDAY                  
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY MON. MEANWHILE...A LO             
PRES SYS WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE NRN PLAINS ON MON AND MOVE INTO MN              
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LO WL BE DEEP ENUF TO CAUSE S GALES OVER THE E            
HALF OF LK SUP LATE TNGT THRU MON NGT...SO ISSUED GALE WRNG FOR                 
THOSE AREAS WHERE S GALES ARE ALMOST CERTAIN. LOOK FOR THE LO TO                
MOVE INTO ONTARIO ON TUE AND DRIVE A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS LK                 
SUP...WITH WNW GALES IN ITS WAKE AS H85 THERMAL TROF DRIVES OVHD                
COINCIDENT WITH SHARP PRES GRADIENT. HEAVY FRZG SPRAY WL RETURN. AS             
THIS LO SLIDES INTO QUEBEC ON WED AND DEEPENS...A HI PRES RDG WL BLD            
INTO THE NRN PLAINS THRU THU.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY               
FOR LSZ266-267.                                                                 
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KF                                                                     
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
337 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE PRECIPITATION AND            
WIND POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE                   
WEST COAST...A BROAD RIDGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND ANOTHER                 
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE OVER                     
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE            
OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A LOW TROUGH THROUGH THE                  
EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MICHIGAN...AND A LOW OVER                   
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE                 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. FOG AND SNOW IS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO             
RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.                          
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. A BROAD RIDGE            
WILL FOLLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL                
RACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA REACHING SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN BY                 
LATE AFTERNOON WHILE PUSHING A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT INTO WESTERN              
WISCONSIN. A SOUTHWEST FLOW NORTH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY HIGH WILL HELP BRING THE TEMPERATURES UP TODAY TO AROUND 30.             
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE AIR MASS             
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF             
PICKING UP SOME CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SOME LOW CLOUDS.                  
AS HPC SUGGEST THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR             
THE SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS LED SOLUTION                 
BECOMES THE PREFERRED.                                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK            
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK               
EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST. THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL SETTLE                    
SOUTHWARD INTO MONTANA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WEST OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE             
WILL CONTINUE TO POUR WARMER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER SPARSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS            
SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY            
OVER THE WEST...AND MID LEVEL CLOUD AS WELL. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING             
A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 2K FEET AND VERY DRY FROM THERE TO 500MB.             
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST COAST WHILE A WEST COAST              
LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON                    
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND                 
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG                    
INVERSION AROUND 850MB...AND NEARLY SATURATED BELOW THIS LEVEL AND              
DRY FROM 850 TO 600MB. TEMPERATURES AROUND 750MB WILL BE 3C TO                  
7C...WHILE THOSE AT 900MB WILL BE -2C TO -4C. WHILE SURFACE                     
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND ZERO. THUS CONDITIONS STILL LOOK                  
FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME FOG.                             
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT             
PUSHING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL             
LIFT INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA THEN INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR            
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND               
WESTERN WISCONSIN. WARM AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE              
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE            
REGION FEEDING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST              
TO JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE               
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL                  
SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL PUSH              
-26C TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL              
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXPERIENCE SOME ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. SOME OF THE A LOW LEVEL JET SWEEPING                
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL MIX TO SURFACE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
PRODUCING SOME GALES OVER THE LAKE AND ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. INLAND             
CAN STILL EXPERIENCE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.                                       
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST INTO QUEBEC AND             
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN.              
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT                
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. HOWEVER...THE DELTA-T`S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
WILL REMAIN AROUND 26C...WHICH WILL CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE             
LOW LEVELS TO KEEP LES GOING. THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST            
CAUSING LES OVER AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN                
U.P. ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CIG AT CMX INTO SUN MRNG WITH LOWERING                   
SUBSIDENCE INVRN TRAPPING LO SC DECK. VFR CIG AT SAW AT TAF ISSUANCE            
WL GRDLY TRANSITION TO AN MVFR CIG EARLY THIS MRNG WITH ARRIVAL OF              
SUBSIDENCE/LOWER INVRN BASE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD            
OF AN ADVANCING NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE SHOULD HELP BREAK OUT THE SC              
ACROSS UPR MI LATER THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL JET MAX RIDING UP THE               
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS COULD BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO             
BOTH TAF SITES BY LATE SUN EVENING.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A WEAK HI PRES RDG TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS TDAY                  
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY MON. MEANWHILE...A LO             
PRES SYS WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE NRN PLAINS ON MON AND MOVE INTO MN              
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LO WL BE DEEP ENUF TO CAUSE S GALES OVER THE E            
HALF OF LK SUP LATE TNGT THRU MON NGT...SO ISSUED GALE WRNG FOR                 
THOSE AREAS WHERE S GALES ARE ALMOST CERTAIN. LOOK FOR THE LO TO                
MOVE INTO ONTARIO ON TUE AND DRIVE A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS LK                 
SUP...WITH WNW GALES IN ITS WAKE AS H85 THERMAL TROF DRIVES OVHD                
COINCIDENT WITH SHARP PRES GRADIENT. HEAVY FRZG SPRAY WL RETURN. AS             
THIS LO SLIDES INTO QUEBEC ON WED AND DEEPENS...A HI PRES RDG WL BLD            
INTO THE NRN PLAINS THRU THU.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY               
FOR LSZ266-267.                                                                 
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1230 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW CONTINUING                 
ACROSS NAMERICA. FLOW IS GENERALLY ZONAL. SO AT LEAST FOR THE SHORT             
TERM...ARCTIC AIR IS NOW BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE N HALF OF CANADA. A              
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING ESE ACROSS SRN LWR MI. -SN OVER             
UPPER MI ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ENDING                 
DURING THE AFTN. HOWEVER...MORE PERSISTENT -SN IS OCCURRING OVER                
PORTIONS OF THE ERN FCST AREA AS SRLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS              
PROVIDING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. OBS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE...AND VIS IMAGERY                  
SUGGESTS A MIDLAKE CONVERGENCE BAND OF SNOW IS PRESENT EXTENDING N              
INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. IN FACT...KGRB RADAR HAS BEEN ABLE TO PICK             
UP SOME OF THIS BAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS OVER NW WI. RADARS/SFC              
OBS INDICATE FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                             
ENDING OF -SN OVER THE E AND CLOUDS/TEMPS TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FCST             
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.                                                     
LOCALLY RUN HIGH RES WRF-ARW HAS DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB DEPICTING THE            
MIDLAKE CONVERGENCE BAND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH WEAKENING                     
CONVERGENCE THRU THE EVENING AND A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE                     
CONVERGENCE AXIS...NOTHING MORE THAN SCT -SHSN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT             
FOR THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH.             
SINCE FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NW WI HAVE               
BEEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AFTER 00Z.                
OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT WAS OVER MUCH OF ERN                     
MN/WI/UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING UP. VIS                    
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS QUITE THIN              
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES AND LAKES FAINTLY VISIBLE THRU THE CLOUDS.                
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STEADY DECREASE IN              
CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT. THERE IS A RISK THAT LOWERING SUBSIDENCE               
INVERSION COULD TRAP A LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT AFTN SATELLITE TRENDS             
SUGGEST LEANING TOWARD AN OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK. WITH EXPECTATION OF               
SOME CLEARING...WILL GO BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT...EXCEPT              
OVER THE E WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND SLOWER              
CLOUD DEPARTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS UP.                                             
QUIET DAY EXPECTED SUN. OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY LATER            
IN THE DAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE...PROVIDED A            
STRATUS DECK DOESN`T GET TRAPPED TONIGHT. GOING FCST HIGHS LOOKED               
FINE...RISING JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE FAR W AS WAA REGIME                  
STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY (850MB TEMPS REACH 2C OVER THE W BY                  
EVENING). COOLEST TEMPS (MID 20S) SHOULD BE IN DELTA COUNTY...                  
DOWNWIND OF THE SOLIDLY ICE COVERED BAY OF GREEN BAY. ELSEWHERE...              
TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 30F.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT                      
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND END UP OFF THE MARYLAND COAST AT THE START OF               
THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE             
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.                        
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY FOR              
OUR EASTERN MOST COUNTIES...AS THEY COULD PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER                
TEENS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER                     
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COME INTO PLAY.  WILL GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR             
NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE INVADING MOISTURE.                                   
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BECOME PINCHED TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY...AS A                
MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO MONTANA             
AND THE DAKOTAS.  AT THIS POINT...MODELS BECOME A LITTLE MORE VARIED            
IN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH.  AT THE                             
SURFACE...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN              
EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST WARM AIR TO                
SURGE IN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH                  
BEFORE AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE...FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK              
FOR MOST.  AS FOR SPECIFICS...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO HOVER             
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ON MONDAY...WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME                 
PINPOINTING ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS A MIXED BAG OF WINTER TYPE                
WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION ACROSS THE U.P.            
SECONDARY WAVE SLIDING ACROSS 00Z WED CONTINUES TO WREAK HAVOC ON               
THE FORECAST.  IT SHOWED UP AGAIN ON THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...AND             
WAS NOT AS EVIDENT ON THE 12Z GFS.  WHAT THIS DOES...IS SLOWS DOWN              
ANY COLD AIR FROM SLIDING IN.  THE GFS WOULD HAVE MAX TEMPS ACROSS              
THE ENTIRE CWA AT OR PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY.  ACCOUNTING FOR THIS                 
ADDITIONAL WAVE AND ATTEMPTING TO PRODUCE LESS FLIP FLOPPING...AND              
REMAINED CLOSER TO ECMWF THINKING WITH COLD AIR SLIDING IN                      
TUESDAY...USED THE SERP TOOL TO BRING WARMEST AIR W AT 12Z...CENTRAL            
AT AROUND 15Z...AND EAST AT 18Z.                                                
UTILIZED HPC GUIDANCE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE FAR EXTENDED...DAYS                 
4/WEDNESDAY THROUGH 7/SATURDAY.  THIS WAS A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS            
AND ECMWF...WITH A LITTLE VARIATION.  THIS MEANT A CHANGE TO                    
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES...AND               
THURSDAY OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...COLDER.                                          
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO KEEP STRONGER WINDS IN THE                    
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF JUST THE DAYTIME HOURS            
WEDNESDAY. ALSO KEPT NW WINDS LONGER...BY ABOUT 18 HOURS OR NOW                 
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CIG AT CMX INTO SUN MRNG WITH LOWERING                   
SUBSIDENCE INVRN TRAPPING LO SC DECK. VFR CIG AT SAW AT TAF ISSUANCE            
WL GRDLY TRANSITION TO AN MVFR CIG EARLY THIS MRNG WITH ARRIVAL OF              
SUBSIDENCE/LOWER INVRN BASE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD            
OF AN ADVANCING NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE SHOULD HELP BREAK OUT THE SC              
ACROSS UPR MI LATER THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL JET MAX RIDING UP THE               
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS COULD BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO             
BOTH TAF SITES BY LATE SUN EVENING.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A VERY STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING                
FROM THE NRN PLAINS MON MORNING TO ONTARIO BY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM               
WILL EASILY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SRLY GALES OVER THE E HALF              
OF LAKE SUPERIOR MON. THERE WILL BE A SWITCH TO W TO NW GALES TUE               
AFTN INTO WED OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR               
SURGES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEEP LOW.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
345 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...WARMER AND DRIER IN THE SHORT              
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA TODAY              
AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA MONDAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE               
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS                 
SUGGESTS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE                 
RIDGES MOVE OVER OUR REGION TODAY THE PERSISTENT STRATUS THAT HAS               
BEEN OVER OUR CWFA SINCE FRIDAY WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE AND ALLOW FOR            
SOME SUNSHINE. THE GFS IS LIKELY STILL A LITTLE TOO FAST IN BREAKING            
OUT SUNSHINE OVER OUR AREA. WL KEEP AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN             
UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY. THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD            
HELP US REACH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY             
ACCEPTED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW            
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY. AS BOTH RIDGES SHIFT EAST TONIGHT             
AND MONDAY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT            
IN COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...DOWN NEAR                
FREEZING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING MID             
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS              
WILL HELP MAKE FOR AN EVEN WARMER DAY. MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN               
THE MIDDLE 60S. /22/                                                            
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS (GFS/EURO/CAN) ARE             
ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TWO SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE                   
ARKLAMISS THIS WEEK. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS EXCEPT THE                
TUESDAY SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE TUESDAY               
SYSTEM CONTINUES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE STRONG WIND FIELDS...BUT               
AGAIN THE INSTABILITY LOOKS A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE WITH 200-400 J/KG             
OF ML CAPE. LIKE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD THE SLOWER SOLUTION              
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE INSTABILITY BUT IT WILL STILL BE MARGINAL.                
LOOKING AT THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WONT BE            
MUCH OF A CAP...SO A FEW DISCRETE CELLS LOOK POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF              
THE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION STRONG TO               
SEVERE IN THE HWO WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                             
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL             
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ONCE AGAIN WE                 
RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS               
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AND THIS                
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE AREA THURSDAY               
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE                  
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE EURO ACTUALLY DEVELOPS THE SURFACE              
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND THIS WOULD KEEP             
MOST OF THE SEVERE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE LAST                  
COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE INDICATED THIS...BUT THE GFS/CAN CONTINUES TO               
KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THINK THE EURO COULD            
HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN                 
TOWARDS THE GFS/CAN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM             
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS                   
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOPING            
BY SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.                                         
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPS THIS MORNING MOSTLY ON            
TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUE TO BUMP POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE AS ALL OF THE                
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACROSS               
THEA AREA. H925/H850 TEMPS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS                 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SO HAVE RAISED HIGHS A BIT. STUCK CLOSE TO              
GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ONE EXCEPTION. EVEN               
WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE                   
SURFACE LOW THURSDAY EVENING THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP IS                        
SIMILAR...SO WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE THURSDAY                   
NIGHT./15/                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER RANGING FROM 200FT IN THE DELTA            
TO NEAR 1000FT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF             
THE MORNING. INSULATION/MIXING WILL FINALLY START TO WORK ON THE                
STRATUS AND RESULT IN EROSION AND SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.             
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE BY 21Z AND LAST                 
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. /22/                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       59  33  67  55 /   0   0   0  13                                  
MERIDIAN      59  28  64  49 /   0   0   0  10                                  
VICKSBURG     58  38  69  56 /   0   0   0  17                                  
HATTIESBURG   61  30  68  50 /   0   0   0   9                                  
NATCHEZ       60  38  67  58 /   0   0   0  12                                  
GREENVILLE    57  38  64  56 /   0   0   4  33                                  
GREENWOOD     58  35  63  55 /   0   0   3  31                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22/15                                                                           
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1022 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO BRING AN EARLIER START TO WIND ADVISORY IN NORTHEAST                 
NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY                  
THOUGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT WAS SLAMMING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING WITH               
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS PER A COOP OBSERVER NORTH OF NORFOLK.                   
WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AT NORFOLK JUST AFTER 9 PM AND WAS               
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH ON THE 10 PM OBSERVATION. THIS IS A BIT                     
QUICKER THAN EARLIER GRIDS SHOWED...SO THEY WERE UPDATED TO                     
REFLECT THIS.                                                                   
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM                  
ENTERING THE REGION. 190M 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WERE NOTED AT OMAHA                
WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 850MB FROM NORTH                     
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. 850 TEMPS RANGED FROM 10C                
AT NORTH PLATTE TO 32 BELOW AT GLASGOW. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS              
SUB 30C BELOW AIR OOZING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS                
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IT IS NOW SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS. AND COLD AIR ALWAYS SEEMS TO HAVE A MIND OF ITS OWN...SO                
INITIAL FEELING IS THAT COLDER NAM MODEL AND ETA MOS IS PROBABLY                
WORTH CONSIDERING.                                                              
PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS MINIMAL RIGHT NOW...BUT                    
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID LEVEL VORT                
MAX AND ASSOCIATED COUPLED JET MOVE INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH                     
DAKOTA. LATEST NAM FORECAST BEARS THIS OUT...AS DOES 00Z RUC. SO                
FOR THE MOST PART GOING GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                   
HIGH QPF IS STILL PAINTED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE AN INCH OR              
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AND ALONG WITH THE STRONG                              
WINDS...EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW THERE. WILL LIKELY SEE                
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT                  
ONLY FOR SHORT PERIODS. MIDNIGHT CREW WILL BE SURE TO EVALUATE THE              
SNOW SITUATION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.                                         
DERGAN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL ITEMS OF CONCERN                 
FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDING SHARP ARCTIC FRONT WITH FALLING                       
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...              
AND THEN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN SHIELD WILL SPREAD AS AN UPPER                      
TROUGH/LOW SWINGS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.                                    
STLT IMAGERY AND UA ANLYS SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS                  
LIFTING NEWD AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH. ONE WAVE WAS                 
LIFTING INTO WRN KS AS OF 19Z WITH AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND                
SOME RADAR RETURNS SPREADING INTO NERN NEBR. WL INCLUDE SCT                     
RW-/RW-- THIS EVENING BASED ON TRENDS BEFORE PRODUCT ISSUANCE.                  
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WAS LIFTING TWD NCNTRL SD...WITH THE                    
ARCTIC CDFNT SURGING SEWD BEHIND IT. AT 19Z CDFNT HAD PUSHED INTO               
NWRN SD AND WAS APPROACHING GILLETTE IN NERN WY. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS           
DIDN/T LOOK TOO BAD FOR FRONTAL TIMING...BRINGING FRONT NEAR A                  
LCG-OLU LINE BY 06Z AND THEN THROUGH THE CWA AROUND 12Z...LOOKING               
AT CURRENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND FRONT...LEANED MORE TOWARD ETA MOS               
FOR ACTUAL 12/13Z TEMPS. WL THEN ADJUST HOURLIES TO REFLECT                     
FALLING TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE CWA INTO MIDDAY TUE BEFORE THEY                
LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS GO UP A BIT. LOOKS LIKE A 3-6 HOUR PD OF                   
LIFT...PARTIALLY FRONTOGENETIC...POST FRONTAL WITH LIGHT SNOW                   
ACCUMULATIONS. INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF LIKELY POPS FAR NE LATE              
TNGT THEN ROUGHLY NE OF LCG-OMA-ICL LINE IN 12Z-18Z PD TUE.                     
ALTHOUGH NEW SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 1 INCH...TROUBLE               
IS THAT ANY SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS                 
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. OPTED FOR A WIND ADVSRY FOR THE TIME BEING               
MOST OF THE CWA AS RECENT MILD SPELL HAS MELTED OR CRUSTED CURRENT              
SNOW PACK AND NEW SNOW AMOUNTS PROBABLY WON/T BE ENOUGH TO LOWER                
VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. HOWEVER...DID ISSUE A                 
WINTER WEATHER ADVSRY FAR NRN ZONES WHERE WIND CHILLS MAY DROP TO               
20 BELOW OR COLDER BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW.                  
WINTER WX ADVSRY MAY NEED EXPANDING LATER IF ACCUMULATING SNOW                  
APPEARS IT WILL LAST MORE THAN SVRL HOURS FARTHER SE.                           
BASED TUE NGT/WED FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH ETA MOS AND NAM WIND               
FIELDS...WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTDG SWD NEAR MO RVR BY 12Z WED. THINK            
GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK IN SHIFTING RIDGE E. THUS LOWERED                    
TEMPERATURES TUE NGT...BUT IF CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE                 
THEY MAY BE TOO COOL. ALSO TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A BIT CNTRL/N ON WED              
DUE TO COLDER START AND THE FACT THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BE INCREASING               
BY THEN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. ALSO INCLUDED SLGT CHC OF SNOW               
NERN ZONES AFT MID AFTN AS H7 TROUGH/LOW DVLPS CNTRL NEBR. GFS                  
REMAINED PERSISTENT IN DVLPG QPF BY 00Z THU AND EVEN 12Z ECMWF AND              
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS IT NOW. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY                  
STILL EXISTS FOR SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY WITH OPERATIONAL GFS                     
CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST BULLISH FOR SERN NEBRASKA...WITH 00Z                  
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING SUPPORT WHILE NAM/SREF SHOWED LTL/MUCH LESS.              
EVEN 12Z GEM AND ECMWF QPF FIELDS HAVE SHIFTED MOSTLY/ALL SE OF                 
THE CWA. OPTED TO LEAVE POPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREV FORECAST DUE TO               
UNCERTAINTIES...WHICH WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FAR SE. MADE A FEW               
MINOR DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS SINCE CORE OF COLD AIRMASS               
CURRENTLY PLUNGING SEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS WON/T BE DISPLACED TOO                
FAR OR MODERATED GREATLY BEFORE THEN.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                  
SEVERAL ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDING SHARP ARCTIC                 
FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT                  
INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY... AND THEN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN SHIELD WILL                  
SPREAD AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW SWINGS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.                 
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                      
TAIL END OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE                  
SOUTHEAST THE FIRST PART OF THU NIGHT.  WENT FOR CONTINUITY FROM THE            
SHORT TERM WITH LINGERING CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST.                   
EXPECT A LOT OF CLEARING BY FRI MORNING...AND THERE WILL BE DECENT              
RADIATION DURING PART OF THE NIGHT.  NW COUNTIES SHOULD NOT RECEIVE             
ADDITIONAL SNOW AND WOULD NOT RADIATE OUT AS WELL AS IN RECENT DAYS.            
 SOUTHEAST MAY WELL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE            
MUCH CLEARING UNTIL LATE.                                                       
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR                   
SEASONAL NORMS.  MODELS DEPICT A WEAK TROUGH WITH LIFT PASSING                  
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.           
A STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL            
STATES AROUND MONDAY.  FOLLOWED HPC TIMING FAIRLY CLOSELY...AND THIS            
REFLECTS THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  12Z GFS IS A LOT FASTER...AND              
THUS COLDER FOR OUR AREA.  12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SFC                
SYSTEM.  WARM ADVECTION PCPN COULD BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY                 
NIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MONDAY.  IF WE ARE            
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND            
SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BECOME ALL RAIN ON                  
MONDAY IN THE SOUTH.  12Z GFS SOLUTION SO FAR IS AN OUTLIER IN                  
DEPICTING A MAJOR WINTER STORM...AND WAS NOT FOLLOWED.                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR TAF SITES OMA/LNK/OFK. VALID THRU 18Z 1/30                                  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT...ARND 06Z AT               
KOFK AND 09Z AT KLNK AND KOMA. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH                  
STRONG NW WINDS AND PERIODS OF S-/IP- THRU 18Z.                                 
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-044-045-            
     050>053-065>067-078-088-089.                                               
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ068-090>093.            
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ032-033-042-043.               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ011-          
     012-015>018-030-031.                                                       
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030-           
     031.                                                                       
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-            
     069.                                                                       
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-            
     091.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
208 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING DRY                       
CONDITIONS AND MILD AIR. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH                
SLOWLY EAST AND PUSH LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY                  
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING COLDER                
AIR BACK INTO REGION.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
UPDATED AT 950 AM...SFC HI PRES RDG CNTRD OVER WRN NY WITH XTNSV                
LOW CLD DECK OVER MUCH OF THE BGM CWA. SOME CLEARING ACRS FAR ERN               
ZONES BUT CLDS HOLDING TUFF ALONG AND W OF I-81. ACARS DATA FROM                
ASCENDING BGM FLIGHT THIS MRNG SHOWED NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS               
TO JUST BLO 850 MB (SIMILAR TO 12Z BUF SNDG). WITH RDG AXIS OVERHEAD            
AND LGT WINDS, THINK CLDS WILL HOLD FIRM OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND              
CNTRL SRN TIER WELL INTO THE AFTN. CLDS MAY EVEN WORK BACK INTO                 
THE WRN MOHAWK VLY AND CATSKILLS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER, THINK OVERALL              
TREND WIL BE FOR IMPVNG CONDITIONS AND WILL INDICATE PC SKIES BY                
MID/LATE AFTN MOST AREAS, AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RUC PROFILES.                  
PREV BLO...                                                                     
LOPRES SPINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE A SHARP RDG BUILDS OVER                
THE FCST AREA. AS USUAL...LGT NLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN AN XTNSV SC              
CVR OVRNGT EVEN WHILE CI DUMPS OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG. BACK EDGE               
OF THE SC MAKING STEADY PROGRESS OVER WRN PA. LWR DEW PTS IN THE                
CNTRL AND ERN ZONES MAY HELP ERODE THE CLDS SO WILL SIMPLY FCST                 
PTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY AS THE BACK EDGE WORKS EAST AND THE ERN              
CLDS ERODE IN THE DRY AIR.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
LOPRES IS OVER NW MN 00Z TUE AS THE MODELS CONT THEIR TREND OF                  
TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST. UA LOW CLOSES OFF LTR TUE AS THE              
SYSTEM GOES NEG. REALL NO FRCG MECHANISM FOR PCPN OVER THE FCST                 
AREA UNTIL THE COLD FNT PUSHES THRU 06Z TO 12Z WED. OPERATIONAL                 
GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE EARLY QPF AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE                
NAM FOR ANY PREFNTL PCPN. STILL...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DOP SOME                 
LGT PCPN OVER THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY TUE...AND IF IT                          
FALLS...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME LGT FRZG PCPN. SO WHILE I              
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS SMALL...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN               
THE WEST FOR NOW.                                                               
SOME LGT PCPN IS PSBL DURING TUE DAYLIGHT HRS BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE              
IS LTL TO FORCE THE PCPN. WILL STICK WITH CONTNUITY AND KEEP THE                
LGT PCPN DURING TUE.                                                            
NEG TILT UA TROF ACCOMPANIES THE COLD FNT EARLY WED AND FINALLY                 
SOME LIFT FOR PCPN. DEEPER...FURTHER WEST LOW HAS DELAYED THE                   
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FNT AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR SO IN TURN HAS              
DELAYED THE CHG OVER TO SNOW UNTIL LTR. VERY DRY AIR BHD THE FNT                
WILL LIMT THE LES ACTIVITY BUT IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH THE FLOW                  
WILL BE FVRBL FOR SOME LES OVER THE NRN ZONES...ESP LTR WED AS THE              
COLD AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED. GOOD GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES ON               
WED WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDS BHD THE FNT.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
MAIN SYSTEM DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM FORECAST TO PULL NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY,             
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR              
PRECIP TO START AFTER 06Z FRIDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.                   
ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START AS SNOW, THEN MIX DURING FRIDAY               
MORNING, WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST                  
AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MIXED PRECIP MAY WELL HOLD ON FOR MOST              
OF THE EVENT ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE COLD AIR              
REMAINS ENTRENCHED. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER IN THE DAY, A                
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.                 
SOME LINGERING SHSN ACROSS LAKE EFFECT AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT              
OTHERWISE QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG THE                      
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THRU THE MORNING, WITH ONLY                
KRME MAKING IT OUT OF THE CLDS THUS FAR. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL               
CONTINUE THIS AFTN, WITH NAM 925 MOISTURE SHOWING MOST AREAS                    
LOSING THE CLD COVER BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. AFTER THAT...VFR THRU                 
THE NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LGT SE. CLDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN               
TUESDAY MRNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT...TO PERHAPS MVFR WITH         
CHC FOR SHRA BY ABT 15Z.                                                        
OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FROM TUES INTO TUES NGT WITH                 
CDFNT. GUSTY WINDS WILL PRECEDE AND FOLLOW THIS FNT. RAPID                      
CLEARING WITH VFR BY WED AFTN...PERSISTING THRU THURSDAY. SRN                   
STREAM SYSTEM APRCHS THU NGT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
SHORT TERM...DGM                                                                
LONG TERM...JML                                                                 
AVIATION...DJP/JML                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1002 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA               
THIS AFTERNOON, AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF                  
THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE START TO                 
LOSE MOISTURE FROM ALOFT AS SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING LOW PRESSURE                 
DEEPENING OFF THE EAST COAST DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. HAVE SEEN CLOUDS                
BREAK IN EASTERN ZONES...WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS FURTHER                
WEST. THIS IS SHOWN PRETTY WELL WITH SHORT TERM RUC                             
GUIDANCE...BOTH THE LLEVEL RH PROGS AS WELL AS LLEVEL ISENTROPIC                
DESCENT. BELIEVE WE/LL SEE THE MOST SUN THIS AFTERNOON OVER                     
EASTERN ZONES...BUT EVERYWHERE COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS. FLURRIES                 
SHOULD END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER                          
SUPPORT/MOISTURE. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.                                          
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS ARE ON THE STREET.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
ENTERING A QUIET WX PD AS HGTS BLD. SHRP RDG DVLPS OVER THE AREA                
AS THE CSTL LOW DEEPENS EAST OF NJ AND BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE               
WLYS. NARROW RDG HOLDS INTO TUE BEFORE HGTS BEGIN TO FALL IN                    
ADVANCE OF THE LRG UA LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS                 
DIFFER WITH THE APRCHG SYSTEM IN THAT THE NAM GENERATES LTL PCPN                
AHD OF THE COLD FNT. BELIEVE THE DRIER NAM MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE                
LACK OF ANY REAL UPPER SUPPORT OR LIFT FOR PCPN OUTSIDE OF THE                  
FNTL BNDRY. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WELL BACK WITH THE CLSD LOW                 
OVER NRN MN. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AND LGT QPF FOR THE                
SYSTEM.                                                                         
TEMPS WILL RISE ABV NRML WITH THE RDG AND WAA AND ANY PCPN THAT                 
FALLS TUE WILL BE LIQUID. DELAY IN START OF PCPN UNTIL AFTER                    
DAYLIGHT WILL LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR ANY FRZG RAIN. AFTER THE COLD               
FNT PASSES TUE NGT...SOME LGT SNOW SHWRS PSBL LATE IN THE CAA.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
EXTNDD PORTION OF FCST BEGINS WITH DEPARTING CDFNT WED MRNG. LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVR FAR NRN AREAS ON WED AS H8 TEMPS               
DROP TO ARND -16C AND WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST. BRIEF                      
RIDGING WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE THE           
NEXT SYSTEM MVS THRU THE PLAINS AND INDUCES A SFC LOW OVR LOWER MS              
VALLEY ON THUR. THIS LOW FCST TO RIDE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD PCPN                 
ACROSS CWA ON FRIDAY. EXACT PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN                     
QUESTION...ALTHO MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN WARMER AND FURTHER                  
WEST WITH SOLN. MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING LOW TO OUR WEST                 
WITH A FEW TRACKING IT RIGHT OVRHD. 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER                  
WITH H5 SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS EJECTING TOWARD THE NE WITH A CLOSED               
LOW DEVELOPING. THUS IT IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE SFC                 
LOW AND IS LEADING TO A WRMR SOLN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON                    
THERMAL FIELDS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHO SIGNS ARE STARTING               
TO POINT TO MORE OF A LIQUID PCPN EVENT. GFS BUFKIT PROFILES                    
INDICATE A SNOW/SLEET MIX POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN               
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVR TO RAIN DRG THE AFTN. POTENT CDFNT IS               
THEN PROGGED TO MV THRU FRI NIGHT AND SWITCH PCPN BACK OVR TO                   
SNOW. WITH POSSIBLY COLD AIR BEING LOCKED UP ACROSS THE EAST AS                 
HIGH SITS OVR ERN CANADA...MAY SEE SOME FRZG RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM              
AS WELL. HAVE OPTED TO LV OUT THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MOMENT AS                   
THREE PTYPES ARE PLENTY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. DEPARTING SYSTEM                   
RESULTS IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT FOR THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE              
NORTH.                                                                          
TRENDED MOSTLY TOWARD GMOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PD WITH MINOR TWEAKS                
TO THE POPS FOR TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT ISSUES AND ALSO TO SHOW                     
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FOR LATE THUR NIGHT.               
ONLY OTHER CHG TO PVS FCST WAS TO RAISE TEMPS APPROX 2-4 DEGREES                
FROM WHAT WAS BEING ADVERTISED. THIS IS A FEW DEGREES BLO WHAT 00Z              
GMOS NUMBERS SHOW. BASICALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF PVS FCST TEMPS                
AND LATEST GMOS GUIDANCE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
OCNL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE MRNG HRS WITH CLD BASES                
ARND 2500FT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ELM/AVP WHERE CONDS WILL RMN                
VFR. CUD SEE BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS AT ELM BUT RETURNING CLD CVR                
WILL ALLOW FOR IMPRVG CONDS BY ARND 13Z. PASSING UPPER LEVEL                    
DISTURBANCE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOWER CEILINGS THRU ABOUT 16Z               
THIS MRNG...BEFORE DRIER AIR LEADS TO BETTER MIXING AND CLDS BCMG               
MORE SCATTERED THRU THE AFTN. EXPECT VFR FROM ARND 16Z-03Z MONDAY.              
EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM SHORE...BUT NW WINDS                    
BEHIND IT WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM LK ONTARIO AND LEAD TO BKN CIGS               
OVRNGT WITH BASES NR 4KFT.                                                      
SE WINDS FROM 5-10KTS BCM VRB FOR A TIME THIS AFTN BEFORE TURNING               
TO THE NORTH THIS EVNG.                                                         
FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...VFR CONDITIONS                
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY SOME                
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS.                
BY WEDNESDAY MRNG A POTENT COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WITH MVFR/IFR              
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS...QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW                  
SHOWERS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS FRONT...IMPROVEMENT TO               
VFR LOOKS PROBABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT              
PERHAPS AT KRME WHERE SOME LES IS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS.              
VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTN.                                  
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMA                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DGM                                                                
LONG TERM...PVB                                                                 
AVIATION...PVB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
310 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY              
FROM THE COAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY... WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL                     
DISTURBANCE PASSES QUICKLY OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY... AND            
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH             
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                           
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY... LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.            
THE STREAK OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA ASSOCIATED WITH               
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA             
BY MORNING. CURRENT RUC BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES INDICATE SOME OF             
THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER N AND CNTRL VA COULD WORK SE INTO THE                    
NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING... BUT EVEN SO THESE CLOUDS SHOULD                   
QUICKLY MIX OUT WITH DEEP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMMENCING AS THE                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE JUST             
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT FOR A FEW FLAT CUMULUS THIS              
AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH OF              
THE CLOUDINESS WITH THE NEXT WEAK VORTICITY MAX NOW OVER THE OH                 
VALLEY HOLDING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. OUR LOCAL HIGH TEMP TECHNIQUE             
USING A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE GIVES                
HIGHS OF 48-56... REASONABLE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW                
LEVEL THICKNESSES ADJUSTED FOR CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE SHORTWAVE             
TROUGH CLOSES OFF JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TODAY                
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN EAST OF             
NJ. MODEL-DEPICTED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY                 
BELOW 10 KTS BUT WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COLD AIR ADVECTION                 
AUGMENTED BY THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH THE DEEPENING LOW... THESE               
WINDS MAY EXCEED 10 KTS TODAY WITH SPORADIC GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN                 
NORTHEAST NC. THEN TONIGHT... STACKED RIDGING BUILDS INTO NC FROM               
THE WEST... AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS                  
SUGGEST A SUBSIDING COLUMN AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.            
HAVE GONE A BIT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... 23-28. -GIH                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY... THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD DURING            
MONDDAY WITH THE RATHER HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LAGGING             
JUST SLIGHTLY BEHIND. WITH DRY AND SINKING AIR PERSISTING... THERE              
SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS. THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TROUGH DROPS               
THROUGH NE NC DURING THE DAY BUT THEY BEGIN TO REBOUND QUICKLY FROM             
THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH HIGHS MONDAY OF 50 NE TO 57             
SW. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND TO OUR EAST                 
MONDAY NIGHT... TRAJECTORIES INDICATE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS NOW                  
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES/W TX/NRN MEXICO WILL STREAM INTO              
THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FORECAST THERMAL AND WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE             
FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THIS CLOUDINESS... EXPECT THESE CLOUDS            
TO THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE RAISED             
LOWS SLIGHTLY TO 29-34. -GIH                                                    
TWO EASTPAC VORTICES... ONE NOW NEAR JUNEAU AK AND THE OTHER WEST OF            
CENTRAL CA... ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE                 
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH HEADING THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY             
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FAST-MOVING SURFACE FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND             
APPROACH WRN NC LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE              
ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP... AND THEY ARE NOW             
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED                
PRIOR TO SUNDOWN TUESDAY... AND WILL STICK WITH ISOLATED POPS LATE              
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NW ONLY AS THE 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW              
LEVEL JET NOSES IN. DESPITE THE MOSTLY BROKEN SKY COVER ESPECIALLY              
IN THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM              
AIR ADVECTION AND 925 MB TEMPS LIKELY TO EXCEED 9-10C... WILL GO                
WITH HIGHS OF 58 NW TO 65 SE. AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SORT OF               
RAPID STEERING FLOW... THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY... REACHING              
THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS               
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT... AMOUNTS ARE THE BIG QUESTION. MUCH OF THE             
DYNAMIC FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD TO OUR NW AS THE TAIL END OF             
THE POSITIVELY TILTING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST GLANCES NW NC...              
AND THE INCOMING 130+ KT UPPER JET IS NOT IN A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION            
TO PROVIDE CONCENTRATED LIFT OVER NC. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXISTS ONLY            
IN A BRIEF WINDOW... AND MUCH OF THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE               
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL CARRY 40-50% POPS BUT EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE            
LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH IN GENERAL. EXPECT MILD LOWS OF                 
38-45. DEEP DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH               
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. THICKNESSES DROP BACK TO NEAR              
NORMAL WEST TO EAST... AND WILL HAVE HIGHS OF 50-58. -GIH                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILDS IN                     
FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY... AND MOSTLY CLEAR            
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW                
NORMAL AND THESE CORRESPOND TO HIGHS OF 46-53... AFTER LOWS OF                  
27-34. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.                 
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR NE THURSDAY AFTERNOON            
AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH THE             
FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING 850-700 MB FLOW SHOULD            
BRING IN A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH              
PRECIP COVERAGE FOR MID RANGE CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. LAYER                 
THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ALL LIQUID EVENT... DESPITE THE              
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON A LIKELY MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS               
PATTERN DEVELOPING. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL BETWEEN THIS WARM FRONTAL              
PRECIP AND RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                  
NIGHT. MODEL DISAGREEMENT CROPS UP WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING OFF A                 
VORTEX OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT A                      
PROGRESSIVE OPEN TROUGH... A SOLUTION THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT               
WITH. EITHER WAY THE TROUGH AGAIN HITS THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC              
AND DAMPENS OUT AS IT TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THERE SHOULD BE                  
ENOUGH PUSH HOWEVER TO GET THE COLD FRONT THROUGH NC BY SATURDAY                
MORNING AND WILL DROP POPS OFF THEN. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO                  
CURRENT POPS ARE NEEDED... MAINLY TO SHOW RELATIVE MAXIMA IN                    
PROBABILITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.                  
CURRENT TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK GOOD BUT WILL RAISE HIGHS                 
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AS THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE                  
NORMAL. -GIH                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA             
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST             
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... RETURNING CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA. THE              
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY... PRODUCING A BRISK            
NORTHERLY FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10                
KNOTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDING DATA INDICATES THERE                 
COULD BE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3500 TO 5000 FEET            
FROM 18Z TO 00Z MONDAY.                                                         
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
EARLY WEDNESDAY... CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO MVFR WITH INCREASING               
MOISTURE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR             
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY.                                    
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE            
MOVING NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH                
CENTRAL U.S. WILL COME TOGETHER TO GIVE US A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION            
LATE IN THE DAY. -RHJ                                                           
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD                                                            
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...RHJ                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
940 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MT              
TO SOUTHERN NV MOVING EAST ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO                
INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IA MOVING NORTHEAST. RAIN WAS               
OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MN WITH THIS FEATURE.                                    
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR INL AND IS FORECAST TO MODESTLY DEEPEN AND            
MOVE NEAR LS BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN BC WILL ALSO               
INTENSIFY A BIT AND MOVE ALONG THE BC/AB BORDER BY MORNING. GOOD                
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEL                   
SOUNDINGS AND AN EAST WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES A NEARLY ADIABATIC           
LOW LEVEL LAYER FOR TONIGHT AND SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD MIXING AND                 
MAINTAINING WINDY CONDITIONS.                                                   
RADAR INDICATED LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ND MOVING EAST ABOUT            
15 KNOTS. SNOW WAS OCCURRING ALONG A COLD FRONT ALOFT. WINDS HAVE               
INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN ND WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT DVL. EXPECT               
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE WITH ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST                
AREA TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION BAND SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.                      
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOWEST MIXING RATIOS WERE MOVING               
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRESSURE RISE CENTER OVER MT WAS MOVING               
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SD. RUC AND NAM HANDLED WITH THE PRESSURE                
RISES BEST. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NAM WAS A LITTLE COLDER AND               
WAS BETTER WITH LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELD THAN THE RUC OR THE GFS. WILL              
USE THE RUC AND NAM FOR TONIGHT. GOING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS LOOK             
GOOD. WILL UPDATE ZONES.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 245 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008/                      
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHAT TO TRANSITION TO WITH OUR WINTER                
STORM WATCH HEADLINE. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS              
SYSTEM...TRENDING DRIER BUT STILL WITH PLENTY OF COLD/WIND. WILL                
STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL TREND BACK FROM             
THE 12Z GFS RUNS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.                                            
TONIGHT/TUE...SFC LOW AT 20Z IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KJMS AND KABR.                
KFAR/KJMS HAVE SWITCHED FROM SOUTH WINDS TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.              
COLD PUSH AND STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF ND                
AND WILL PUSH INTO THE FA TONIGHT. BATCH OF MOSTLY MID LEVEL                    
ECHOES ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN...AND THERE                  
HAVE BEEN SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS. THIS WILL                
NOT AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST FA AT ALL...SO WILL NOT HAVE TO WORRY                  
ABOUT ANY FREEZING OR LIQUID PCPN FOR THIS EVENT. THERE IS ANOTHER              
BATCH OF ECHOES ON RADAR IN WESTERN ND...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE               
TO PUSH EAST AND GIVE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO OUR FA. AS FAR AS HOW              
TO TRANSITION FROM OUR CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH...HAVE ELECTED                
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT FIRST. WILL HAVE THE                    
COMBINATION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING TEMPS...                
LEADING TO SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES. ALL THESE PARAMETERS SHOULD                  
STAY IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE                 
SOME LOWER VSBYS INITIALLY...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING A DURATION OF                 
VSBYS LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE. AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE                
KDVL REGION TOWARD MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES START TO GET INTO                
WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A DOUBLE                      
HEADLINE PRODUCT AND TRANSITION FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY                
TO A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA TOWARD MORNING.                  
WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES VALID UNTIL 00Z WED.                                    
TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME YET INTO TUE NIGHT                  
WHERE WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL STILL BE NEEDED. WILL HOLD OFF ON               
EXTENDING THE PLANNED HEADLINES FOR NOW TO KEEP THINGS FROM                     
GETTING TOO CONFUSING. WILL LEAVE THIS FOR LATER SHIFTS.                        
WED/THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE FA FOR A PORTION OF WED...              
BUT THIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON THU. FORECAST CHALLENGE                  
WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY TEMPS...AND THESE GREATLY AFFECTED BY                 
CLOUD TRENDS.                                                                   
.LONG TERM [FRI-MON]...                                                         
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS WITH POSITION/SPEED            
OF SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT               
MORNING. BIGGEST CHALLENGE I SEE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES IS TEMPS THU              
NIGHT AND FRI. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY 00Z FRIDAY...I                 
INCREASED MIN TEMPS FOR THU NIGHT. MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A               
BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS SRN CANADA AND JUST INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES.              
WITH H850 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 20 F IN THE NORTHEAST...COUPLED            
WITH FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US        
FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW NEG 10 F...PROBABLY WARMER. MEX GUIDANCE               
KEEPS MOST OF FA IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THUS STILL WELL BELOW             
GUIDANCE...BUT ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS SHOWED AND                
WARMER THAN MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF             
LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN ACROSS NORTHEAST ND THIS EVENING. EXPECT             
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BECOME IFR FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT GFK AND               
FAR AS WINDS INCREASE AND BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE               
RED RIVER VALLEY. CIGS MAY RISE TO VFR/MVFR EARLY TUE MORNING THEN              
FALL BACK INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUE. EXPECT                
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT BJI BUT A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND GFK AND FAR.                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ008-                 
     016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.                                           
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ008-016-           
     027-029-030-039-049-052-053.                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-             
     014-015-024-026-028-038-054.                                               
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-           
     014-015-024-026-028-038-054.                                               
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>004-             
     007-029.                                                                   
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>004-           
     007-029.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ005-008-             
     013>015-022-027-030-031-040.                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ006-          
     009-016-017-023-024-028-032.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HOPPES                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
723 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...BOUNDARY NOW SITTING ACROSS THE NW FA. THIS A BIT                     
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING. 09Z RUC13 KEEPS THIS                
BOUNDARY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY...MAYBE PUSHES IT A BIT                     
FURTHER SOUTH. WILL LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE LANGDON...CANDO AREA                 
FOR TODAY AS A RESULT. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL RISE                        
CONSIDERING CURRENT FOG THAT HAS FORMED WITH THIS COOLER AIRMASS.               
WILL ADD AREAS FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THIS AREA.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN                       
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.                   
STRONG WINDS...REDUCED VSBY...AND LOWER CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW PRESSURE                    
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 00Z MODELS                  
REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL FOLLOW GFS FOR                    
DETAILS...ALTHOUGH GFS/NAM/ECMWF VERY CLOSE.                                    
TODAY...MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARM AIR MASS                 
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS W ND/E              
MONTANA WITH STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS E ND. MODELS SHOW                  
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL ND BY 18Z...AND ACROSS THE                   
VALLEY BY 00Z. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FZRA...BUT                  
CHANCES LOOK LESS AND LESS EACH MODEL RUN.                                      
TONIGHT-TUE...MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO CONSIDER AFTER THIS SYSTEM                    
PASSES THROUGH.                                                                 
FIRST...REDUCED VSBY IN FALLING SNOW. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL                 
BRING VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-                
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH INITIAL COLD SURGE TO PRODUCE A BRIEF              
PERIOD OF SNOW. THIS FALLING SNOW SHOULD OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH              
STRONG WINDS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GREATLY REDUCED              
VSBY. SNOWFALL AMTS LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS MODELS                     
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF. THUS...BLOWING SNOW PROBABLY                  
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.                                                          
SECOND...HOW STRONG WILL WIND SPEEDS BE? STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION              
AND 12MB-15MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION. 900MB-               
850MB WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE 38KTS-43KTS. VERY EFFICIENT MIXING             
SHOULD MEAN WIND SPEEDS 30-40MPH TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE                  
VALLEY. EAST OF THE VALLEY...IN THE TREES...WIND SIGNALS ARE                    
WEAKER...SO 20-35MPH SPEEDS LIKELY HERE. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE                    
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 50KTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY               
WITH INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER COULD               
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS. ON TUE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...BUT               
850MB WIND SPEEDS LESS.                                                         
THIRD...WIND CHILL VALUES. VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS          
SYSTEM. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS WILL              
PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND              
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA (LESS THAN -40F) WILL BE MET ALONG AND WEST              
OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORY                    
CRITERIA (LESS THAN -25F BUT GREATER THAN -40F) WILL BE MET EAST                
OF THE VALLEY.                                                                  
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND              
WEST OF THE VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL                
FALL...AND HOW INTENSE IT WILL BE. THIS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR                  
KEEPING THE WATCH. FIGURE NEXT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO GATHER                     
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS...AND WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO SEE THE                  
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND ACROSS W ND AS IT APPROACHES. IF THIS                
BAND IS INTENSE ENOUGH...COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR BLIZZARD               
CONDITIONS. ALSO...EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH THROUGH THE                  
DAY ON TUESDAY AS WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...AND                
IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS BLOWING SNOW COULD BE A PROBLEM (ALTHOUGH                  
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE AT THIS TIME).                              
ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY. INITIAL                 
SURGE OF COLD AIR AND SNOWFALL WILL CREATE REDUCED VSBY.                        
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS THINK THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR ANY               
SORT OF WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS              
LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING ON TUESDAY AS                        
WELL...THUS MULTIPLE ADVISORY CONDITIONS LEADS TO WINTER WX                     
ADVISORY. SNOWFALL AND REDUCED VSBY MAY LAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON AS              
WELL ACROSS THIS AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REDUCE TO BELOW 10 MPH                
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE SFC RIDGE IS A BIT SLOWER TO BUILD INTO              
THE REGION...WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTEND.                        
CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT MOSTLY                   
DRY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
     FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.                                
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY              
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.                      
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
     FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029>031-040.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST                  
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028-032.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1231 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TODAY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGH                
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN MONDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  A               
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TOWARD            
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
LATEST RUC13 AND LCL WRF SHOW THE EXITING S/W TAKING A FEW HRS                  
LONGER TO VACATE THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT.  IFR -SHSN HAVE BEEN                   
REPORTED THE PAST FEW HRS AT EKN/W22 AND NOW CKB.  WITH THAT IN                 
MIND...CARRIED LKLY POPS THROUGH LATE MRNG THEN TAPER OFF TO SW--               
THIS AFTN.  CONTD FLURRY MENTION ON THROUGH MDNGT IN THE EKN VCNTY              
AS ANOTHER UPR AIR IMPULSE PASSES.  DO NOT NEED TO ADJ TEMPS FOR TDY            
SINCE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW GUID.                                           
SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MRNG MATCH WHAT WAS FCST YDY WITH A SKIFF OF              
SN /< 1.0/ OVER NRN WV WITH 1-2 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.                    
THE 00Z AND 6Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT RIGHT AT THE TOP OF THE                
CLOUD LAYER THAT COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 6Z TONIGHT.             
THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THAT CLOUD DECK. AFTER 6Z...BEGIN TO SEE             
SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND 925 MB WHICH SHOULD INDICATE WHEN THE                
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AND THE CLEAR SHOULD FINALLY MOVING                  
ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT REACH THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL               
MONDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE GONE ON THE WARM                             
SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST.            
FURTHER WEST...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE NUMBERS AS THE CLEARING SKY            
AND LIGHT WIND COULD ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP MORE.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND A SIGNIFICANT               
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH                 
RETURNING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY...AS COMPARED WITH THE NAM. THIS MAY              
BE VALID HOWEVER...AS OVER RUNNING TENDS TO RUN FASTER THAN THE                 
MODELS NORMALLY SHOW. POPS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A GOOD COLD            
FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED DECENTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS                
SHOWING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM THEN                
ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BIG WARM AIR SURGE SHOULD KEEP               
ALL PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS THE                  
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE                    
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ON BOTH MODELS...GFS DEPICTION SEEMS MUCH                
MORE REALISTIC.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
CLOUDS CONT TO RAPIDLY BREAK WITH NO CIGS BEING REPORTED FM RZT TO              
CRW TO BKW AND POINTS S.  CLDS CONT TO LIFT NE AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS             
IN FM THE W.  CLR OUR PKB AND CKB AROUND 0Z...BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL            
MON MRNG BEFORE EKN GOES VFR.  ONCE THE STRATUS AT AN AIRPORT                   
DEPARTS CAVU THE BALANCE OF THE PD.                                             
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 18Z MONDAY/...IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT                
WITH A COLD FRONT...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS IN SNOW SHOWERS ON                     
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY                                                              
NEAR TERM...29/ESS                                                              
SHORT TERM...RPY                                                                
LONG TERM...RPY                                                                 
AVIATION...29                                                                   
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
618 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE              
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE            
REBUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH               
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
NAM AND RUC STILL SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING UPSLOPE ALONG NC N               
MTNS AND SAT LOOPS SHOW MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT ALONG NW FACING                    
ESCARPMENT. WITH INCREASING NW WINDS AT 850MB AND THE SHALLOW                   
MOISTURE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC N MTNS               
UNTIL 12Z...THEN CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W                 
TODAY. USED MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S S TO LOW             
50S N...MAINLY 40S MTNS WITH A FEW LOW 50S MTN VALLEYS.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...WARMER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT             
TERM...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPS              
SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS               
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER VIGOROUS                
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE                 
DETAILS...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING DEEP LAYER            
MOISTURE/PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING             
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS. ALTHOUGH               
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IN THE MTN VALLEYS TUE                  
MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN LATE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE              
ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS AT ONSET.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE                 
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING TUES               
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT                
LAKES WILL BE CROSSING THE FA. GFS SHOWS BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE               
AND OMEGA MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IN THE 00-06Z             
TIME FRAME. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FA WITH               
HIGH CHANCE TO THE EAST. COULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR CAT POPS BUT                
WILL GO WITH LIKELY FOR NOW. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY AS            
THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ON WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH               
WED NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE OLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY               
ALONG THE GULF COAST.                                                           
ON THURS...HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS UP CAD              
REGIME ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TEXAS               
PANHANDLE THURS NIGHT AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT               
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. CARRY SOLID CHC POPS THURS NIGHT                
INTO FRI MORNING AS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPGLIDE FLOW ARE IN             
PLACE. FRI IS WHERE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER...MAINLY WITH THE UPPER                
LEVEL PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY SHARP AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH             
TOWARDS THE FA. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF CREATES A BOWLING BALL              
UPPER LOW THAT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LIKELY               
POPS IN PLACE ON FRI AS BOTH MODELS TRACK A SURFACE LOW                         
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF. OBVIOUSLY THE ECMWF IS THE              
MORE WRAPPED UP SOLUTION BUT AT ANY RATE BOTH MODELS KEEP THINGS WET            
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT            
BOTH MODELS SCOUR OUT THE WEDGE ON FRI WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.             
GFS FAILS TO GENERATE MUCH CAPE ACROSS THE FA BUT THIS WILL REQUIRE             
FURTHER WATCHING AS THE TIME DRAWS CLOSER. COULD BE AN INTERESTING              
EVENT WITH SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP THURS                   
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A WARM SECTOR SCENARIO ON FRIDAY.              
AS USUAL...PLENTY OF UNKNOWN FACTORS AT THIS POINT.                             
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SAT AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO            
PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL...TEMPS RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE             
NORMAL ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR WITH MCLR SKIES             
UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LEE SFC TROUGH EXPECTED IN                  
DOWNSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTN...ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK W TO SW ACROSS THE            
PIEDMONT AROUND 10KTS. N WINDS 12G20KT AT KAVL MOST OF DAY.                     
AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MON. GULF MOISTURE WILL                
REACH CWA WITH A COLD FRONT TUE BRINGING CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS...                
PRECIP AND GUSTY WINDS. AREA DRIES OUT EARLY WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE             
BUILDING IN FROM THE W. GULF MOISTURE SURGES N OVER AREA AS RIDGE OF            
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF AREA THU...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CIG/VIS               
RESTRICTIONS AND PRECIP FOR LATE WEEK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RB                                                                   
NEAR TERM...RB                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JDL                                                                
LONG TERM...BSH                                                                 
AVIATION...RB                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
835 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...STRONG SW WINDS CONTINUE ACRS NERN WY INTO THE BLKHLS             
THIS EVENING.  HIGHEST RECORDED SPEED THUS FAR HAS BEEN 101 MPH NEAR            
CROW PEAK WEST OF SPEARFISH...WITH MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ABOVE 60 MPH            
FOR PEAK WINDS. SEE NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM THE STRONG WINDS                    
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH 00Z NAM/RUC SUGGESTING 50-55KT BL WINDS ACRS               
THE BLKHLS INTO THE ERN FOOTHILLS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY              
BE ABLE TO MAKE IT AT LEAST PART WAY DOWN THE ERN FOOTHILLS TOWARDS             
THE WRN PORTIONS OF RAPID CITY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT MUCH FURTHER             
EAST. THUS...WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE. MIDNIGHT SHIFT               
WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TO SEE IF THE HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE            
EXTENDED IN TIME...ESPECIALLY NERN WY INTO THE BLKHLS.                          
AS EXPECTED...TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING MUCH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HILLS            
WEST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS EAST OF THE HILLS ALLOWING TEMPS TO                
COOL...ALBEIT SLOWLY. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN               
MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.                                          
ALSO...HAVE RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MONDAY ACRS SWRN AND               
SCNTRL SD. WITH WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS...SHOULD NOT TAKE                
LONG FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND MONDAY MRNG AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC               
BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY PUSHING THRU NCNTRL MT).                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                
VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE BLACK HILLS              
AREA WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL                
RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AT GCC. LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONT AND               
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z MONDAY FOR GCC              
AND RAP.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-          
     NORTHERN FOOT HILLS.                                                       
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-           
     HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-                        
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.                                               
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN CAMPBELL-             
     SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JOHNSON                                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
223 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN                     
SASKATCHEWAN WITH TROF EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN                
WYOMING. ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE INTO MONTANA NEXT                
FEW HOURS. FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH HIGH WINDS THROUGH                       
TONIGHT...AND TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT MONDAY.                                    
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN          
BLACK HILLS/FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND OF 82 MPH HAS                
BEEN MEASURED NEAR CROW PEAK WEST OF SPEARFISH. 18Z WRF/RUC POINT               
TO STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG              
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH BEST PRESSURE FALLS MOVING TO THE                
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING                    
850-700MB FLOW...HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO                       
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS ALONG WITH STURGIS/RAPID CITY/HERMOSA              
FOOTHILLS. NEWCASTLE/STURGIS GRADIENT ALONG WITH 50-65 KNOT                     
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUPPORT LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS. BIGGEST UNKNOWN              
IS WHERE INVERSION HEIGHT WILL SET UP...THUS THE ELEVATION OF THE               
STRONGER WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST WEST OF                  
SPEARFISH...WHERE CROW PEAK AREA MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH 90                
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME                       
LOCATIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS STAYING IN THE 40S.                               
18Z WRF SIMILAR TO 12Z WRF/GFS IN SLOWING ARCTIC FRONT DOWN. WITH               
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WOULD PUT THE                
ARCTIC FRONT INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY             
AFTERNOON...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING.               
TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES                
AS THERE WILL BE A SHARP DROP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CURRENT               
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO.              
WITH STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES BEHIND ARCTIC                    
FRONT...WILL LIKELY HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS               
AFTER FROPA. BAND OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENISIS/MOISTURE FOLLOWS                   
SURFACE FRONT...AND WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.                
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS              
WHERE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. WINDS/ARCTIC AIR                
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 40 BELOW ZERO MONDAY                  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK              
HILLS.                                                                          
ARCTIC HIGH STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS               
ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. WRF/GFS TRY TO KEEP THE               
ARCTIC BOUNDARY ALONG SOUTHWESTERN BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BASED               
ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...WOULD NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.                          
EXTENDED...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL                
HANG ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING                
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS OVER               
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE             
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...AS                 
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO              
NORTHEAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SOME WEAK ENERGY IN               
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO                   
TIME...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK PRETTY LOW...SO WILL KEEP                
REST OF EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                
VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE BLACK HILLS              
AREA WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL                
RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AT GCC. LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONT AND               
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z MONDAY FOR GCC              
AND RAP.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-          
     NORTHERN FOOT HILLS.                                                       
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-           
     HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-                        
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.                                               
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN CAMPBELL-             
     SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC/ST                                                                           
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
340 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAYS STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET MOST AREAS AS                  
SHALLOW DECOUPLING OCCURS. THE LATEST RUC RUN SUGGESTS DECOUPLING               
MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY ACROSS HIGHER WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE               
MORE UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRYING AND DOWNWARD FORCING...AND THIS MAY              
REQUIRE A SLIGHT EXTENSION BY AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE WIND ADVISORY.              
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO PONDER. OTHERWISE...STRONG             
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING TREND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A                
BREEZY NIGHT TONIGHT AND A CLEAR AND VERY WIND DAY TUESDAY. PACIFIC             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO EXPECTED TO PASS LATER TONIGHT AND MAY CAUSE              
BRIEF HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS AS IT PASSES ALTHOUGH NOT CONVINCED                
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AFTERWORDS DURING THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT                  
HOURS. BUT ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO RAPID MIXING ON TUESDAY LEADING             
TO ANOTHER VERY WINDY DAY. WE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE             
BECAUSE OF THE LOCAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS. ADDED AREAS OF                  
BLOWING DUST TUESDAY MOST AREAS AS WELL.   MCQUEEN                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING EITHER A CLOSED              
LOW OR SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND                    
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY. TODAYS 12Z AND 18Z RUNS CONTINUE TO                
SHOW THE SYSTEM AS A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA 12Z                
THURSDAY. AS SUCH...WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND               
FOLLOWING FORECAST SOUNDINGS CHANGED THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO               
ALL SNOW. SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY                 
DRY AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY...WE HAVE KEPT                   
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. FOR NOW...WE HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES                
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.                                                  
BEYOND THURSDAYS SYSTEM WE CAN EXPECT FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER                 
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE               
AREA NEXT MONDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET AND MAY              
BE SLOW TO DO SO IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS              
WE ARE SATISFIED RETAINING THE CURRENT RFW UNTIL 1800 ONLY.                     
CASTRO...PARMER...AND BAILEY COUNTIES OFFER BEST CHANCE OF PERHAPS              
BRIEFLY REACHING HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.                 
TUESDAY...COOLER AIR FOLLOWING PACIFIC FRONT TOMORROW EARLY...BUT               
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE VERY DRY AND MAYBE NOT QUITE AS COOL AS             
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD            
EASILY REACH 20 MPH OR GREATER AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL WITH SURFACE                
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND               
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. MIXING MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE            
DAY BUT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY NOT ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO DROP                
UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH VALID FROM             
1100 UNTIL 1700.  MCQUEEN                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        34  50  21  57  25 /   0   0   0   0  30                          
TULIA         36  51  22  57  26 /   0   0   0   0  30                          
PLAINVIEW     37  51  24  57  27 /   0   0   0   0  30                          
LEVELLAND     39  53  25  60  27 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
LUBBOCK       39  53  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
DENVER CITY   39  54  29  60  30 /   0   0   0   0  10                          
BROWNFIELD    40  53  27  60  29 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
CHILDRESS     48  57  25  60  30 /   0   0   0   0  30                          
SPUR          48  56  25  59  31 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
ASPERMONT     51  59  28  60  37 /   0   0   0   0  10                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY                         
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026-029>032-034>044.                  
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>029-033-034-039.                                          
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>036-039>041.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/04                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1202 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR                 
40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL AROUND                   
SUNSET THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...WHERE THE SURFACE                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST...LOOK FOR SOUTH TO                     
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS THROUGH                 
SUNSET. THUS...AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600                
PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE ABILENE REGIONAL AIRPORT.                           
MEANWHILE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO                 
2500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID                            
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO TO                       
BROWNWOOD. AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO              
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEST                    
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME MORE                         
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...THE                 
FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ALL FLIGHT                  
PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW ACROSS WEST                
CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY TO REPLACE                      
CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY... ALREADY SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE BIG                
COUNTRY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. KEPT LAKE WIND ADVISORY                
FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEARTLAND WHERE WINDS ARE A LITTLE LIGHTER.. WILL 
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS OUT SHORTLY.                                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
RAPID GULF MOISTURE RETURN HAS OCCURRED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS              
ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE              
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS                 
THIS MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN IN THE MVFR RANGE, ALTHOUGH RECENTLY               
TERMINALS DOWN SOUTH (KSOA, KJCT) HAVE EITHER DROPPED INTO THE IFR              
CAT OR ARE TRENDING THAT WAY. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT                  
THIS NOTION AS WELL. WILL THROW IN TEMPO IFR CIGS FOR ALL                       
TERMINALS EXCEPT KABI WHICH BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY                  
STAY MVFR. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK BY AROUND 16 OR 17Z FROM WEST               
TO EAST. AFTER STRATUS SCATTERS OUT AT THE TERMINALS LATER ON, THE              
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. FOR WINDS, WENT             
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP NORTH AT KABI FOR TODAY AS THEY WILL                
APPROACH 20-25KTS BY AFTERNOON.                                                 
LACY                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WIND WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE...               
AS WELL AS FIRE WEATHER DANGER ON TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS                    
OCCURRING TONIGHT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY...IN                 
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL JET. A SURGE IN DEWPOINTS IS ALSO OCCURRING               
WITH READINGS QUICKLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S.                                 
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TODAY WITH THE                
HIGHEST SPEEDS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA. ON                
THE FENCE AS TO WHETHER TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG                    
COUNTRY. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EXPECTED TO THICKEN HOWEVER...              
THIS SHOULD LIMIT SLIGHTLY THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...SO AT THIS                    
TIME THINK THAT THE SPEEDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WILL                  
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL APPLICABLE                
COUNTIES. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT                    
LIMITATION ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO GOING WITH HIGHS A FEW                 
DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING EFFECTS WILL HELP TO KEEP                  
THE WINDS UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST-CENTRAL                   
TEXAS.                                                                          
ON TUESDAY...STRONG WINDS AND AN INTRUSION OF VERY DRY AIR                      
WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR OUR REGION.                      
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY                     
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT                    
PASSES. WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR                      
COUNTIES TUESDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS...                 
GIVEN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND INTRUSION OF VERY DRY AIR                       
THAT IS EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AT                       
LEAST OUR NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL COUNTIES. DESPITE                       
A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TUESDAY...THE COLD AIR                    
ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TO AROUND 7-14                     
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS.                                                 
SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT                     
WILL BRING A SHORT-LIVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINDS TUESDAY                        
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE                       
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND LEE                        
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO                     
SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES                        
ACROSS TEXAS. THE ECMWF STILL MAINTAINS CLOSED LOW                              
DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD                          
TRACK ACROS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS TRENDS HAVE AN                         
OPEN WAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTH TX. WITH THE FORECAST                      
SYSTEM TRACK AND LIMITED TIME WINDOW FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE                    
RETURN...IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE                        
FOCUSED NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. RATHER GUSTY                        
NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH                        
THIS NEXT SYSTEM.                                                               
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY                        
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW                            
ALOFT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  74  53  60  35 /  10  10   0   0                                       
SAN ANGELO  74  53  64  32 /  10  10   0   0                                    
JUNCTION  71  54  68  30 /  10  10   0   0                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-                   
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-                
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-                 
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.                                  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                            
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-COKE-                
COLEMAN-CONCHO-MCCULLOCH-RUNNELS-TOM GREEN.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/23/23                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1119 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE ZFP SINCE THE FOG DISSIPATED. WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WINDS FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THE               
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...SEE BELOW.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 915 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008...ON THE                   
FENCE OF ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND RUC40              
925 TO 1000MB WINDS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN                 
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. VAD WINDS FROM KBRO AND 12Z MORNING                      
SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED 25 TO 30KTS AT SAME LEVELS. NAM AND GFS                 
GUIDANCE INDICATES SFC WINDS JUST BELOW LOCAL WIND ADVISORY                     
CRITERIA...GREATER THAN 30KTS SUSTAINED. LOW TO MID LEVEL CU FIELD              
AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSOLATION TODAY THUS                   
MIXING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL              
MAINTAIN THE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE ZONES WITH THE STRONGEST                   
PERIOD LIKLEY FROM 1 TO 6 PM. AS FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN                    
HIDALGO...STARR...ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...THE FOG SHOULD                 
BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND 11 AM AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.                      
AVIATION...AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG...BREEZY WINDS WITH MOSTLY                   
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TRIO OF REGIONAL AIRPORTS LATER              
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.                                     
MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 17 KNOTS                    
GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 4 FEET WITH A                
PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 08 CST/14 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN              
EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS WINDS OF 20             
KNOTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THERE. THE SMALL CRAFT                 
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO                 
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND              
SEAS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER             
TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS              
ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE               
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY                  
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF              
FRIDAY.                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 355 CST MON JAN 28 2008...500 MB                       
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST IN THE              
SHORT TERM AS 500 MB TROFFING AFFECTS THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF               
THE U.S. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST TOWARDS                
THE CENTRAL U.S. EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER MISS RIVER                
VALLEY BY LATE TUES. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE AS THE               
LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH INCREASES. AS THIS                 
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUES...A COLD FRONT WILL               
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUES NIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER DEEP                   
SOUTH TEXAS REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS SO                  
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS FOR TODAY AND TUES. ANOTHER               
MORE SOUTHWARD POSITIONED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG INTO THE                  
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WED INTO THURS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF              
THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL NOT BE MUCH BETTER AND WILL HANDLE THIS                  
WITH ONLY SOME SLGT CHC POPS. FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS AND POPS...THE               
MAV AND MET NUMBERS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE                     
WARMEST TEMPS FOR THIS WEEK EXPECTED TUES. WILL MENTION THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE THIRD PERIOD AS THE                
RECORDS OF BRO...HRL AND MFE ARE 86...87 AND 90 RESPECTIVELY.                   
AFTER THIS NEXT 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATE THUR                
INTO FRI...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO WEAK RIDGING               
THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH PRETTY LOW POPS AND NEAR TO ABOVE              
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE                   
GFS...ECMWF AND THE NAM LOOKS DECENT WHILE THE RUN TO RUN                       
CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS MEX IS PRETTY STABLE. SO WILL STICK PRETTY               
CLOSE TO THE MEX TEMPS/POPS FOR THE 3 TO 7 DAY RANGE.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  67  82  61 /  10   0   0   0                           
BROWNSVILLE          79  67  84  61 /  10   0   0   0                           
HARLINGEN            81  66  86  58 /  10   0   0   0                           
MCALLEN              81  65  88  57 /   0   0   0   0                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  64  85  56 /  10   0   0   0                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  79  61 /  10   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-             
     132-135.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
59/66                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1115 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY TO REPLACE                      
CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY... ALREADY SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE BIG                
COUNTRY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. KEPT LAKE WIND ADVISORY                
FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEARTLAND WHERE WINDS ARE A LITTLE LIGHTER.. WILL 
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS OUT SHORTLY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
RAPID GULF MOISTURE RETURN HAS OCCURRED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS              
ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE              
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS                 
THIS MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN IN THE MVFR RANGE, ALTHOUGH RECENTLY               
TERMINALS DOWN SOUTH (KSOA, KJCT) HAVE EITHER DROPPED INTO THE IFR              
CAT OR ARE TRENDING THAT WAY. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT                  
THIS NOTION AS WELL. WILL THROW IN TEMPO IFR CIGS FOR ALL                       
TERMINALS EXCEPT KABI WHICH BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY                  
STAY MVFR. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK BY AROUND 16 OR 17Z FROM WEST               
TO EAST. AFTER STRATUS SCATTERS OUT AT THE TERMINALS LATER ON, THE              
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. FOR WINDS, WENT             
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP NORTH AT KABI FOR TODAY AS THEY WILL                
APPROACH 20-25KTS BY AFTERNOON.                                                 
LACY                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WIND WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE...               
AS WELL AS FIRE WEATHER DANGER ON TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS                    
OCCURRING TONIGHT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY...IN                 
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL JET. A SURGE IN DEWPOINTS IS ALSO OCCURRING               
WITH READINGS QUICKLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S.                                 
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TODAY WITH THE                
HIGHEST SPEEDS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA. ON                
THE FENCE AS TO WHETHER TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG                    
COUNTRY. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EXPECTED TO THICKEN HOWEVER...              
THIS SHOULD LIMIT SLIGHTLY THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...SO AT THIS                    
TIME THINK THAT THE SPEEDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WILL                  
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL APPLICABLE                
COUNTIES. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT                    
LIMITATION ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO GOING WITH HIGHS A FEW                 
DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING EFFECTS WILL HELP TO KEEP                  
THE WINDS UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST-CENTRAL                   
TEXAS.                                                                          
ON TUESDAY...STRONG WINDS AND AN INTRUSION OF VERY DRY AIR                      
WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR OUR REGION.                      
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY                     
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT                    
PASSES. WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR                      
COUNTIES TUESDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS...                 
GIVEN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND INTRUSION OF VERY DRY AIR                       
THAT IS EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AT                       
LEAST OUR NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL COUNTIES. DESPITE                       
A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TUESDAY...THE COLD AIR                    
ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TO AROUND 7-14                     
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS.                                                 
SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT                     
WILL BRING A SHORT-LIVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINDS TUESDAY                        
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE                       
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND LEE                        
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO                     
SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES                        
ACROSS TEXAS. THE ECMWF STILL MAINTAINS CLOSED LOW                              
DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD                          
TRACK ACROS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS TRENDS HAVE AN                         
OPEN WAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTH TX. WITH THE FORECAST                      
SYSTEM TRACK AND LIMITED TIME WINDOW FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE                    
RETURN...IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE                        
FOCUSED NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. RATHER GUSTY                        
NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH                        
THIS NEXT SYSTEM.                                                               
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY                        
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW                            
ALOFT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  74  53  60  35 /  10  10   0   0                                       
SAN ANGELO  74  53  64  32 /  10  10   0   0                                    
JUNCTION  71  54  68  30 /  10  10   0   0                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-                   
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-                
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-                 
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.                                  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                            
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-COKE-                
COLEMAN-CONCHO-MCCULLOCH-RUNNELS-TOM GREEN.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/28                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
915 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...ON THE FENCE OF ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS                  
AFTERNOON. NAM AND RUC40 925 TO 1000MB WINDS RANGING FROM 25 TO                 
35KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. VAD WINDS FROM                  
KBRO AND 12Z MORNING SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED 25 TO 30KTS AT SAME                
LEVELS. NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES SFC WINDS JUST BELOW LOCAL               
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...GREATER THAN 30KTS SUSTAINED. LOW TO MID               
LEVEL CU FIELD AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSOLATION               
TODAY THUS MIXING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE IS NOT                  
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE ZONES WITH THE              
STRONGEST PERIOD LIKLEY FROM 1 TO 6 PM. AS FOR THE PATCHY DENSE                 
FOG IN HIDALGO...STARR...ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...THE FOG                 
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND 11 AM AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG...BREEZY WINDS WITH MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TRIO OF REGIONAL AIRPORTS LATER              
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 17 KNOTS                   
GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 4 FEET WITH A                
PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 08 CST/14 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN              
EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS WINDS OF 20             
KNOTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THERE. THE SMALL CRAFT                 
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO                 
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND              
SEAS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER             
TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS              
ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE               
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY                  
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF              
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 355 CST MON JAN 28 2008...500 MB                      
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST IN THE              
SHORT TERM AS 500 MB TROFFING AFFECTS THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF               
THE U.S. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST TOWARDS                
THE CENTRAL U.S. EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER MISS RIVER                
VALLEY BY LATE TUES. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE AS THE               
LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH INCREASES. AS THIS                 
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUES...A COLD FRONT WILL               
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUES NIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER DEEP                   
SOUTH TEXAS REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS SO                  
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS FOR TODAY AND TUES. ANOTHER               
MORE SOUTHWARD POSITIONED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG INTO THE                  
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WED INTO THURS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF              
THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL NOT BE MUCH BETTER AND WILL HANDLE THIS                  
WITH ONLY SOME SLGT CHC POPS. FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS AND POPS...THE               
MAV AND MET NUMBERS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE                     
WARMEST TEMPS FOR THIS WEEK EXPECTED TUES. WILL MENTION THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE THIRD PERIOD AS THE                
RECORDS OF BRO...HRL AND MFE ARE 86...87 AND 90 RESPECTIVELY.                   
AFTER THIS NEXT 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATE THUR                
INTO FRI...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO WEAK RIDGING               
THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH PRETTY LOW POPS AND NEAR TO ABOVE              
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE                   
GFS...ECMWF AND THE NAM LOOKS DECENT WHILE THE RUN TO RUN                       
CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS MEX IS PRETTY STABLE. SO WILL STICK PRETTY               
CLOSE TO THE MEX TEMPS/POPS FOR THE 3 TO 7 DAY RANGE.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  67  82  61 /  10   0   0   0                           
BROWNSVILLE          79  67  84  61 /  10   0   0   0                           
HARLINGEN            81  66  86  58 /  10   0   0   0                           
MCALLEN              81  65  88  57 /   0   0   0   0                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  64  85  56 /  10   0   0   0                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  79  61 /  10   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-             
     132-135.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
59/66                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
521 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RAPID GULF MOISTURE RETURN HAS OCCURRED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS              
ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE              
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS                 
THIS MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN IN THE MVFR RANGE, ALTHOUGH RECENTLY               
TERMINALS DOWN SOUTH (KSOA, KJCT) HAVE EITHER DROPPED INTO THE IFR              
CAT OR ARE TRENDING THAT WAY. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT                  
THIS NOTION AS WELL. WILL THROW IN TEMPO IFR CIGS FOR ALL                       
TERMINALS EXCEPT KABI WHICH BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY                  
STAY MVFR. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK BY AROUND 16 OR 17Z FROM WEST               
TO EAST. AFTER STRATUS SCATTERS OUT AT THE TERMINALS LATER ON, THE              
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. FOR WINDS, WENT             
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP NORTH AT KABI FOR TODAY AS THEY WILL                
APPROACH 20-25KTS BY AFTERNOON.                                                 
LACY                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WIND WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE...               
AS WELL AS FIRE WEATHER DANGER ON TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS                    
OCCURRING TONIGHT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY...IN                 
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL JET. A SURGE IN DEWPOINTS IS ALSO OCCURRING               
WITH READINGS QUICKLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE 40S.                                 
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TODAY WITH THE                
HIGHEST SPEEDS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA. ON                
THE FENCE AS TO WHETHER TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG                    
COUNTRY. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EXPECTED TO THICKEN HOWEVER...              
THIS SHOULD LIMIT SLIGHTLY THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...SO AT THIS                    
TIME THINK THAT THE SPEEDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WILL                  
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL APPLICABLE                
COUNTIES. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT                    
LIMITATION ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO GOING WITH HIGHS A FEW                 
DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING EFFECTS WILL HELP TO KEEP                  
THE WINDS UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST-CENTRAL                   
TEXAS.                                                                          
ON TUESDAY...STRONG WINDS AND AN INTRUSION OF VERY DRY AIR                      
WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR OUR REGION.                      
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY                     
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT                    
PASSES. WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR                      
COUNTIES TUESDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS...                 
GIVEN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND INTRUSION OF VERY DRY AIR                       
THAT IS EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AT                       
LEAST OUR NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL COUNTIES. DESPITE                       
A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TUESDAY...THE COLD AIR                    
ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TO AROUND 7-14                     
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS.                                                 
SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT                     
WILL BRING A SHORT-LIVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WINDS TUESDAY                        
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE                       
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND LEE                        
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO                     
SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES                        
ACROSS TEXAS. THE ECMWF STILL MAINTAINS CLOSED LOW                              
DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD                          
TRACK ACROS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS TRENDS HAVE AN                         
OPEN WAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTH TX. WITH THE FORECAST                      
SYSTEM TRACK AND LIMITED TIME WINDOW FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE                    
RETURN...IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE                        
FOCUSED NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. RATHER GUSTY                        
NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH                        
THIS NEXT SYSTEM.                                                               
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY                        
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW                            
ALOFT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  74  53  60  35 /  10  10   0   0                                       
SAN ANGELO  74  53  64  32 /  10  10   0   0                                    
JUNCTION  71  54  68  30 /  10  10   0   0                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-COKE-                
COLEMAN-CONCHO-HASKELL-JONES-MCCULLOCH-NOLAN-RUNNELS-TAYLOR-TOM                 
GREEN.                                                                          
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-                   
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-                
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-                 
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/30                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
836 AM PST SUN JAN 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD AND UNSETTLED DEEP WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE                  
TODAY AND WELL INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH A NEW STORM SYSTEM                   
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY 36 TO 48 HOURS THROUGH NEXT                    
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 836 AM...                                                                
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC BAND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON               
HAS BECOME REFOCUSED ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AGAIN THIS MORNING                 
AFTER DIPPING SOUTH OF THE SPOKANE METRO BRIEFLY PRIOR TO SUNRISE.              
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO                  
DIG...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE FRONT TO BACK UP A BIT THIS MORNING.                
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING              
TO DROP SOUTH...WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN                  
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE RADAR AT THE LATEST RUC...AN                  
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR                 
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE REISSUED FOR THE               
SPOKANE AREA...AS WELL AS THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN. FOR THE                     
BASIN...THE ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH                
OF I-90. STATEMENTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /GKOCH                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG A MID LEVEL COLD FRONT THAT             
IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL            
FALL ALONG A LINE FROM MOSES LAKE TO SPOKANE THROUGH 21Z. BETWEEN               
21Z AND 03Z...THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND WILL BE FOCUSED                
INTO THE PULLMAN AND LEWISON ARES. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST                         
ATMOSPHERE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY               
FOR MOST AIRPORTS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. /GKOCH                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        33  20  24  18  25  13 / 100  40  60  40  80  30                 
COEUR D`ALENE  34  22  26  18  25  16 / 100  40  60  40  80  40                 
PULLMAN        34  24  28  22  28  19 / 100  70  60  50  80  40                 
LEWISTON       40  29  33  25  36  25 /  90  70  50  40  70  30                 
COLVILLE       31  18  25  16  25  12 /  40  30  50  40  60  30                 
SANDPOINT      32  22  26  17  22  12 /  90  50  60  40  70  50                 
KELLOGG        32  23  27  20  26  15 / 100  90  70  60  80  50                 
MOSES LAKE     26  17  29  21  29  16 /  40  20  20  30  60  10                 
WENATCHEE      26  15  28  21  27  16 /  20  20  20  30  60  10                 
OMAK           25   7  22  10  22  10 /  20  20  20  30  60  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IDAHO PALOUSE...      
     LEWISTON AREA.                                                             
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LEWIS AND              
     SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES.                                               
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COEUR                 
     D`ALENE AREA.                                                              
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL                
     PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN PANHANDLE.                                  
WA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SPOKANE AREA...            
     UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.                                                      
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOWER GARFIELD             
     AND ASOTIN COUNTIES...WASHINGTON PALOUSE.                                  
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST             
     BLUE MOUNTAINS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1206 AM EST TUE JAN 29 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.                                        
A VERY ACTIVE AND DIFFICULT FORECAST UPCOMING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE            
IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT. MVFR                
CIGS AND VSBY HEADED THIS WAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE BY 12Z. SCATTERED               
SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY TOMORROW...REMAINING IN              
THE MVFR CATEGORY. ADDED CB MENTION AFTER 21Z FOR SCATTERED                     
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY. THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR AT HUF AND LAF              
FIRST AROUND 00-01Z AND THEN OTHER SITES BY 03Z. AFTER FROPA A WIND             
SHIFT AND DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE              
25 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER              
03Z. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS               
WILL CONTINUE.                                                                  
.PREV UPDATE...                                                                 
HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. 18Z               
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE AFTER            
COLD FRONT PASSES. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 40KT POSSIBLE TUE             
EVENING. RUC13 SFC PROGS SHOWING SUSTAINED 35KT...AND 18Z MAV                   
SHOWING SUSTAINED 30KT WINDS. THUS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO                     
ISSUE AT THIS TIME.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
VIS SAT SHOWS OVC SKIES ACRS THE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 40S WITH             
DEWPTS IN THE MID 20S AND WINDS OUT OF THE SSW AROUND 15KTS GUSTING             
TO AROUND 25KTS. RADAR SHOWS SPRINKLES AND VIRGA OVR THE FA AS WELL.            
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS...WINDS...AND SVR POTENTIAL WITH FRONTAL              
SYSTEM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST             
PART IN THE SHORT TERM SO WL USE A BLEND.                                       
TONIGHT...WAA AND CLOUD CVR WL KEEP LOWS UP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S               
RIGHT WITH GUIDANCE. CHCS FOR POPS SHUD INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS            
A S/W MVS THRU AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES. DO NOT EXPECT GREAT               
AMOUNTS BUT ENUF FORCING TO KEEP LIKELY RAIN. WHILE PRES GRADIENT               
STRENGTHENS ACRS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT INVERSION IS STRONG ENUF             
TO KEEP THE STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SFC.                            
TUESDAY...NAM HAS SLOWED FROPA FROM YESTERDAYS RUN AND NOW IS ABOUT             
MIDWAY THRU THE FA BY 0Z AND AGREES WELL WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.            
NOT A LOT OF SFC INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BUT THERE IS WILL BE ELEVATED            
INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. WITH 50+KT LLJ MVING ACRS THE AREA AFTER               
18Z AND INVERSION ERODING SHUD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS TO MIX            
DOWN TO THE SFC WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. MOST OF THE FA             
IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUE                        
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.              
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OF ADVISORY              
CRITERIA WILL JUST AFTER FROPA...WHICH WOULD PUT THEM STARTING UP               
ACRS THE FA AFTER 21Z AND PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 0Z. BUFKIT GUSTS              
DURING THIS TIME ARE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH             
OTHER OFFICES AND NOTING THIS WOULD BE IN THE THIRD PERIOD HAVE                 
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ISSUANCE OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NEXT FCST                   
PACKAGE...BUT DEFINITELY THINK ONE WILL BE NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY                
NIGHT.                                                                          
TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED STRONG WINDS ABOVE. COLD FNT             
WILL FINISH MVING ACRS THE AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER OVR AT                 
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU 3Z. BRING POPS DOWN FROM W TO E             
IN 3 HR INCREMENTS AND SHUD SEE CHANGE OVR TO SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS            
BEFORE WED MORNING BUT THE SNOW SHUD BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE                 
ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD FNT SHUD SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE.               
BOTH MODELS SHOW COLD AIR PLUNGING DOWN AFTER FROPA BUT NAM SEEMS A             
LITTLE OVERZEALOUS WITH ITS H8 TEMPS AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL            
DROPPING THINGS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BASED ON WHAT LOW TEMPS ARE              
LIKE IN THE NRN PLAINS RIGHT NOW.                                               
WED AND WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE BLDS IN AND THINGS ARE DRY. WED WL BE            
COLD BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD AIR SPILLING DOWN SO              
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S. WED NT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND              
TO THE S BUT WITH NOT MUCH CLOUD CVR EVEN WITH THE WAA WL STILL SEE             
LOWS IN THE TEENS.                                                              
EXTENDED...EXTENDED EMPHASIS IS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM.                
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FCST TRACK OF SFC LOW THU                   
NT/FRI. ECMWF MVS THE LOW THRU IL AND KEEPS THE FA IN ALL RAIN WITH             
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW. GFS TRACKS THE LOW ALONG THE              
OH RVR AND HAS NRN AND CENTRAL FA ALL SNOW WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR              
ICE IN THE S. WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT GO OUT QUITE FAR ENUF                      
YET...IT/S SFC LOW HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER S. WITH SYSTEMS THUS               
FAR THIS WINTER THE NAM AND GFS HAVE HAD A BIAS TOWARD THE SE WITH              
THEIR SFC LOWS AND GIVEN THAT AM MORE INCLINED TO LEAN ON THE WARMER            
NW SOLN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THE CURRENT DISAGREEMENT THO AM NOT GOING            
TO PULL THE SNOW...INSTEAD WILL INCLUDE A MIX FOR MOST OF THE STORM             
AND WL TRY TO NAIL DOWN A LITTLE BETTER AS /HOPEFULLY/ MODELS COME              
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.                                                          
A WEAK FNT WL MV THRU ON SAT NT/SUN BUT ASSOC FORCING STAYS WELL N              
OF THE AREA SO WL KEEP A DRY FCST. MON A WARM FNT WL APPROACH FROM              
THE S AND SO HAVE BROUGHT IN CHC POPS. TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE SO WL               
INCLUDE A RAIN SNOW MIX.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS 7PM TUE              
TO 7AM WED.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...LAJ                                                                  
UPDATE...CS                                                                     
PUBLIC...CP                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1046 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UPDATE FOR THE 06Z TAFS...COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE                 
HAS ALREADY REACHED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. SURFACE                       
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 WITH AND                    
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC COLD                           
FRONT...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH IN             
LIGHT BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. BY 15Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS     
TO RETURN TO VFR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
.UPDATE...00Z H85 ANALYSIS SHOWING A LARGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR                  
PLUNGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE 02Z              
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS                   
ALREADY APPROACHING THE I-80 CORRIDOR. GIVEN SUCH COLD                          
TEMPERATURES (-32C AT KGGW AT H85) AND RAPID TEMPERATURE DROPS                  
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WILL TREND LOWS               
DOWN TONIGHT. THE COLD AIRMASS APPEARS TO HAVE A FAVORABLE                      
TRAJECTORY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE              
OF MODIFICATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE MIXING                
WILL BE MORE LIKELY. WILL LOWER HIGHS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES              
WHERE REACHING 20 MAY BE A STRUGGLE ON TUESDAY. A SECONDARY                     
CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILL READINGS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE                
DAY ON TUESDAY.                                                                 
LITTLE CHANGES IN POP ORIENTATION EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SNOW                  
SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE                 
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. DID RAISE POPS INTO THE MID RANGE WEIGHTED               
IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS                  
JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN                   
09-13Z. WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES ALSO APPEAR ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGE             
PLANNED.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE TWO SHORT WAVE                
TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF THE CWA. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL                 
COLORADO AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA.             
ANOTHER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO NEVADA AND UTAH AND                
WILL BE PRIMARY WX MAKER TONIGHT/TOMORROW.                                      
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN/DECOUPLE DURING THE EVENING              
AS DEEP MIXING COMES TO AN END...AND WILL LET CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS                
CONTINUE. MAIN CONCERNS AFTER THAT WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS GET                 
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEATHER OR NOT ANY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AS            
WELL. NAM/GFS/GEM ALL SUPPORT PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS               
THE CWA AFTER 06Z. POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE            
INCREASE TO OVER 40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT            
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE            
FRONT. ALTHOUGH TIME OF NIGHT IS NOT NORMALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG              
WIND...MINIMAL INVERSION COUPLED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND CAA             
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. GFS              
ACTUALLY COMES CLOSE TO LOW END WARNING CRITERIA...BUT OTHER MODELS             
ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THINK AN ADVISORY WILL BE THE WAY TO GO                    
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING.                  
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN FALL AS FRONT                    
PASSES...WHICH WILL MAY CAUSE EVEN MORE PROBLEMS WITH THE WIND.                 
GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM              
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION BEHIND FRONT DURING                
THE MORNING HOURS. CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE FRONTAL SURFACE SHOWS             
A POCKET OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE...WITH             
ENVIRONMENT NEARLY SATURATED. FRONTOGENESIS AT H7...H65 ALSO LINE UP            
WELL WITH H7-H5 AND H5-H3 DIV Q FORCING FOR ASCENT. ONLY CONCERN IS             
IF SATURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING SHOULD MOVE BY FAIRLY                 
QUICKLY...AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL                 
DRYING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS SYSTEM. OBSERVED LAPSE              
RATES...AND OBSERVED NATURE OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA                         
CURRENTLY...SUGGEST STABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW. IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP               
WITH THE WIND...WILL LIKELY NEED SOME KIND OF SNOW/BLSN                         
HIGHLIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL REMAINS BELOW                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. WILL UP POPS OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDE             
BLSN IN FORECAST BUT FOR NOW WILL LIKELY GO WITH JUST A WIND                    
ADVISORY.                                                                       
TOMORROW NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE            
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF TUESDAY EVENING LEADING            
TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN            
FAIRLY QUICKLY HOWEVER AS H7 TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND            
12Z WED. FAIRLY STRONG WAA INDICATED AT H7 AS WELL. POINT SOUNDINGS             
INDICATE A VERY THICK...DRY LAYER BELOW THIS REGION AND WITH FAIRLY             
HIGH STABILITY DO NOT THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE               
GROUND BY 12Z WED. MORE WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED              
BY Q VECTOR FIELDS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE                    
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FORCING DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR THAT             
FOCUSED...AND GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS IS DRIER AND FURTHER                  
SOUTH. AM GOING TO TRIM BACK POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR THE TIME                     
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD ON TO SOME LOW               
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.                          
THURS-SATURDAY...OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER IN BOTH                  
POSITION AND SPEED OF H5 TROUGH...AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS SLOWER MORE             
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TAKING THE SLOWER/MORE                  
SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST GLANCES THE            
CWA...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NOT            
TO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL                   
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY SHOULD BE THE                
NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION. OTHER CONCERN THROUGH THE            
PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS...WITH BIGGEST CONCERN BEING HOW MUCH OF A WARM            
UP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS/ECMWF AND GFS             
ENS MEAN WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY WARM TEMPS DEVELOPING...AND THIS                  
SOLUTION LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT GOING TOO            
WARM AS THIS AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE OVER CWA ONLY A BRIEF TIME BEFORE            
NEXT FRONT COMES THROUGH...AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS FRONT                 
COULD HAMPER WARM UP.                                                           
SUNDAY & MONDAY...H5 LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS                 
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ON                
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD                
FRONT.  IF THE FRONT PICKS UP MOMENTUM THAN MONDAYS HIGH                        
TEMPERATURES MY NEED ADJUSTED DOWN...AS A DECENT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR             
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT COMES IN             
AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS MONDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN                       
SEASONABLE-UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S                                               
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-          
     013.                                                                       
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ TO 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/            
     TUESDAY FOR KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.                                    
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.          
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090-091.                      
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ092.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCGUIRE/JRM/BLM                                                                 
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
346 AM EST TUE JAN 29 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF A               
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM              
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                  
BACK OVER THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...                                                
SDGS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AT H85 TO OVERCOME ON 00Z SNDGS                 
BEFORE ANY PRECIP COULD MITIGATE ITSELF IN THE BL (ESP GSO). BAND               
OF PRECIP EARLIER MOVD OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT AND ALTHOUGH AT                    
FIRST PRECIP HAD A HARD TIME PUSHING THROUGH...SOME OBS OVER THE                
PAST FEW HRS HAVE REPORTED VERY -RA/UP BUT NOT MORE THAN A TRACE                
WAS REPORTED. THIS IS ASSOC WITH A BAND OF WEAK H92 OMEGA SHOWN ON              
NAM/RUC AND LOCAL WRF. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABV FRG WHERE MID/HIGH               
LVL RETURNS ON RADAR ARE PRESENT AND THERFORE WILL ADD MENTION OF               
DZ/SPRINKLES TO MORNING PACKAGE AND TREK IT TO E-NE BEFORE THREAT               
ENDS BY LATE AM AS FORCING MOVES OFFSHORE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A                
TRACE OR LESS...BUT A FEW TENTHS MAY BE POSSIBLE.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                             
LOOK FOR TEMPS TO STILL RECOVER THIS AFTN WITH MAXS IN THE MID                  
50S N (EVEN WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER) TO THE LOW 60S S.                           
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE AND WILL PICK              
UP AFTER DARK AS DECENT H92 JET AXIS (60-70 KTS) MVNG OVRHD. PRECIP             
LOOKS TO DVLP LATE EVE/TWRDS MIDNIGHT...AT FIRST WILL BE STRATIFORM             
(LIGHT). MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVRNT HRS BUT PRECIP           
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING            
AT A QUICK PACE (BUFKIT SUGGESTS 50-60 KTS) AND LACK OF                         
OMEGA/FORCING PRESENT.                                                          
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR A BRIEF TIME WITH ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL             
PASS (06-12Z). TWRDS 12Z WED MORE LIFT/FORCING IS PRESENT OVER FAR              
SE CWA (MAINLY NE NC). THIS COULD AID TO MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP                 
POTENTIAL...BUT STILL FAIRLY LOW (AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH                   
POSSIBLE). BULK OF PRECIP LOOKS TO FIRE/DVLP OFFSHORE OF NC (SOUTH              
AND EAST OF THE CWA). H85 TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION 13-17Z                  
(NW/SE) ENDING ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL BEHIND IT. WRLY FLOW WILL AID IN            
TEMPS RECOVERING LATE AM/EARLY PM BEFORE TEMPS FALL AFTER SUNSET.               
WINDS DIE OFF WED NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 20S              
(UPPER TEENS SBY AREA).                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR A CAA DAMMING SITUATION TO DVLP              
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY STAGES OF FRI AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH               
INITIAL START OF PRECIP STILL IN QUESTION FRI AM...BUFKIT SNDGS                 
SUGGEST WET BULB HEIGHTS AT 500-800FT FOR A TIME BEFORE HEIGHTS                 
QUICKLY RISE TO 8-10K FT AS NOSE OF WARM AIR MOVES IN AT H85. HAVE              
DECIDED TO ADD A SLGHT/LOW CHC OF -RA/FRZ RA TO FAR NW SECTIONS OF              
THE CWA WITH LOW LVL CAA WEDGE HOLDING TEMPERATURES BLO/AT/NEAR FRZG.           
IF PRECIP IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY FRZG                  
PRECIP DECREASES.                                                               
LOOK FOR CHCS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRI AND BREEZY                
CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN DVLP (STILL THINK BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE              
TO THE W/NW OF THE CWA. SYS WILL PUSH NE OF THE FA FRI                          
NIGHT...WITH ONLY A SLGHT CHC OF SHWRS REMAINING OVER THE ERN SHORE             
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTM THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY QUIET...WITH CLIMO             
ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. (LOWS IN THE 30S.) NEXT SYS                   
PROGGED FOR LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
SOME PTCHY BR DVLPNG ALONG THE COAST DUE TO MAINLY SKC / LGT WNDS.              
XPCT ANY FOG TO REMAIN ABV 3SM AS SW WNDS PICK UP AS NITE PROGRESSES.           
OTW...VFR THRU 00Z WITH CLD DECK GRDNLY LWRS FROM 15K FT TO 8K FT.              
PUSHED BACK ANY SHWRS UNTIL AFTR 00Z FROM RIC-SBY. DON`T SEE MUCH               
IF ANY PCPN AT SERN TAF SITES DUE TO SE RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. SW              
GRDNT INCRS AFTR 21Z OR SO WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KT XPCTD. LWR CIGS/VSBYS           
MAY BE SEEN WITH SHRA ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED AM.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING THIS AM AND JUST WENT BLO SCA AS OF 3 AM.                 
SO WILL LOWER SHORT TERM SCA WITH THIS PACKAGE. XPCT A BRIEF LULL               
FROM HEADLINES TDY AS SERN RIDGE KEEPS WNDS AOB 15 KT. P-GRDNT INCRS            
AFTR 21Z AHEAD OF NXT FRNT. WNDS INCRS DRAMATICALLY TONITE WITH                 
IMPRESSIVE 50+ KT H92 JET PROGGED AFTR MIDNITE. FOR NOW...WILL CAP              
GUSTS AT 30 KT ACROSS WTRS TONITE. THNKG IS THAT ANY 35 KT WNDS WUD             
BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...WHICH WUD BE HANDLED WITH MWS/SMW`S.                  
DESPITE DECENT ADVECTION BEHIND BNDRY WED...H85 TMP DROP NOT THAT               
IMPRESSIVE. THAT BEING SAID...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO GALE              
FORCE ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS & MOUTH OF BAY WITH FROPA WED AM...BUT               
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A WDSPRD GALE WRNG ATTM. SO WILL            
CAP WNDS JUST BLO GALES FOR NOW.                                                
QUICK MOVG SYSTMS CONT THIS WEEK AS YET ANTHR CHC FOR SCA FLAGS COMES           
LATE THU NITE AND FRI AS SE WNDS INCRS AHEAD OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO              
DEEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE ALONG MTS. TRAILING CDFRNT CROSSES WTRS FRI              
NITE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST                
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CCW                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CCW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CCW                                                                
LONG TERM...CCW/SMF                                                             
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...MPR                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1225 AM EST TUE JAN 29 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                                            
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH              
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...A TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN                     
WEST...AND RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE                
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALSO WITHIN THE WESTERN TROUGH TO NOTE FOR THE             
SHORT TERM IS A SHRTWV IN NW KANSAS. SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND             
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO               
THE CWA...NOTED BY EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SUN WAS              
ABLE TO PENETRATE THROUGH TO COMBINE WITH THE BREEZY SW FLOW AND                
WARM 850MB TEMPS (6C AT GRB AND 12C AT MPX) TO BRING TEMPS UP CLOSE             
TO RECORD LEVELS. THE HIGH TEMP REACHED 41F AT THE OFFICE...JUST 2              
DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD. MORE THICKER CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON                   
VISIBLE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE CWA FROM TWO DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS...            
AND THESE WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS            
TO THE SOUTH...STRETCHING FROM SOTUEHRN LAKE MICHGIAN DOWN INTO THE             
OHIO VALLEY. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN TOO WITH            
THESE CLOUDS. THIS AREA IS BEING SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC LIFTING                
THROUGH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...NOTED BY 850MB WINDS OF             
50-70KT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM LATEST                
PROFILERS. THE OTHER AREA OF THICK CLOUDS IS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO              
MN...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DPVA AHEAD OF THE NW KANSAS SHRTWV...              
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100-120KT JET                
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT                 
REGION OF A 100-120 KT JET EXTENDING FORM NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN               
NEBRASKA. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED OUT OF THESE                   
CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 982MB LOW IS LOCATED IN NE SOUTH DAKOTA.             
VERY CHILLY AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND THE LOW...NOTED BY SURFACE TEMPS              
IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO OVER ALBERTA...SASKATCHEWAN AND                 
EASTERN MONTANA (850MB TEMPS ARE BELOW -30C). LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS              
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH IN                 
NEVADA...WHICH IS NOTED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER UTAH.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...              
LIKELY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUING TO MARCH            
SE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW. THIS PROGRESSION COMES INTO PLAY A BIT               
MORE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.                                  
FOR TONIGHT...FOCUS IS ON THE TWO FEATURES MENTIONED IN THE                     
SYNOPSIS...THE SHRTWV LIFTING NE OUT OF NW KANSAS...AND THE AREA OF             
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING UP THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. SHRTWV                
LIFTING OUT OF NW KANSAS SHOULD MOVE INTO WI BY 06Z...THEN INTO NE              
ONTARIO BY 12Z. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV...COMBINED WITH SOME JET              
COUPLING FROM THE TWO JET AREAS ALSO LIFTING NE...SHOULD BRING SOME             
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. PCPN MAY CHANGE TO                
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN...THOUGH AFTER 06Z THE               
DYNAMICAL FORCING BEGINS TO WANE...SO SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS                 
POINT LOOKS MINIMAL. OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AREA OF ISENTROPICALLY              
LIFTED RAIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING...THEN ALSO EXIT                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL U.P. IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO                  
FEATURES...AND IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT VERY LITTLE MAY HAPPEN              
OTHER THAN DRIZZLE ONCE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP. THEREFORE...HIGHEST               
POPS ARE CONCENTRATED FOR THE WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN CWA...AND                 
BEFORE 06Z. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD                
FRONT APPROACH. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND SOME WIND...COMBINED WITH             
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS UP UNTIL THE                
FRONT PASSES THROUGH (FRONT PROGGED TO BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL                
U.P. AT 12Z TUE). ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO LOWS.                         
FOR TUE...THE MORNING LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET PCPN WISE AS THE AREA IS               
PUT IN OVERALL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...CAUSED BY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN              
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHRTWV AND COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AS THE                 
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS. THE COLD ADVECTION AT THIS POINT                
DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH IN THE MORNING TO GENERATE ANY LAKE EFFECT            
OFF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FOCUS OF ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE                
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.. DPVA AHEAD OF THE            
SHRTWV AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD GENERATE A LOW ALONG THE                
COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS                 
PROGGED TO LIFT WITH THE SHRTWV FROM SE KANSAS AT 12Z UP INTO SW                
LOWER MI BY 00Z WED. DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...IN CONJUNTION WITH              
DPVA FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN               
MN...AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED TO MOVE IN SHOULD HELP               
EXPAND SNOW INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE                 
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN U.P....WHERE THE COLD AIR IS NOW COLD ENOUGH            
(850MB TEMPS DROP TO -16 TO -21C BY 00Z) TO GENERATE LAKE                       
EFFECT...AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE DPVA FORCING IS                   
MAXIMIZED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE SEEM               
REASONABLE...GREATEST IN THE FAR WEST WITH LAKE ENHANCMENT AND FAR              
SOUTH CENTRAL CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK. NEW 18Z NAM MIGHT SUGGEST                
MORE FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL...AND GIVEN THE UPCOMING WINDS AND SNOW              
FOR TUE NIGHT...A WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN             
SCHOOLCRAFT. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE              
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE              
DIGITS NEAR IWD BY SUNSET.                                                      
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THRU MON)...                                              
DANGEROUS WINTER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHAPING UP FOR PORTIONS OF             
THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FIRST UP...SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH               
SHORTWAVE/SFC WAVE AND A BAND OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MIDLEVEL                     
FRONTOGENESIS WILL STREAK NNE THRU THE FCST AREA TUE EVENING...                 
ESPECIALLY CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT              
WITH REGARD TO SNOW AMOUNTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE                   
STRENGTH OF SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO MORE SNOW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.               
NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH PCPN AMOUNTS. IN FACT...18Z RUN              
HAS 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF PCPN OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FCST AREA. WINDS/BLSN             
WILL ALSO BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. IN LIGHT OF THE NAM SOLUTIONS...            
HAVE OPTED TO CARRY A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MENOMINEE TO SRN                   
SCHOOLCRAFT THRU TUE NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE                  
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/BLSN. LATER SHIFTS CAN THEN ADJUST TO SNOW/BLSN                
ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING IF THE NAM IS ACTUALLY ONTO SOMETHING.               
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS LAKE                
SUPERIOR. LES WILL SWING INTO HIGH GEAR AS ARCTIC SURGES OVER THE               
UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG/INTENSE CAA (850MB                
TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -25C...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -30C BY 12Z                   
WED)...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR FAVORABLE DENDRITIC                
SNOW GROWTH BEFORE THE COLUMN BECOMES TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. SO...             
DO NOT EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO GET OUT OF HAND...ESPECIALLY                
OVER THE W WHERE SHORT FETCH/STRONG WINDS WILL MINIMIZE HEATING OF              
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LAKE WHICH WOULD IMPROVE SNOW GROWTH.               
SHOULD ONLY SEE ADVY AMOUNTS THERE. LONGER FETCH/WARMING INTO THE NE            
FCST AREA MAY OFFER BETTER SNOW GROWTH...SO AMOUNTS MIGHT REACH                 
WARNING CRITERIA THERE. THE BIG COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE                 
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND VERY UNSTABLE TEMP PROFILE OVER THE             
LAKE ENSURING EFFICIENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD                 
REACH 35 TO 50KT (HIGHEST OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR)...                  
PROVIDING AN INDICATION OF POSSIBLE GUST SPEEDS. WITH SNOWFLAKE SIZE            
BECOMING VERY SMALL AND MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VSBY...                 
STRONG WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLIZZARD               
CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING FOR THE KEWEENAW            
TO ONTONAGON AND MUNISING EWD. HAVE THUS CHANGED WINTER STORM WATCH             
TO BLIZZARD WATCH TO PROVIDE INCREASED AWARENESS OF THE POTENTIAL               
FOR LONG DURATION LOW VIS IN SNOW/BLSN.                                         
EXPECT ADVY HEADLINES FOR SNOW/BLSN AND/OR WIND CHILLS FOR THE                  
REMAINING COUNTIES NOT UNDER WATCHES. LES WILL CONTINUE WED...BUT               
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE DAY. DUE TO VERY COLD/DRY                   
AIRMASS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 1-4INCH RANGE IN             
THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...FAVORED THE LOWER END OF                  
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT AND FOR MAX TEMPS WED GIVEN THE                
VERY COLD AIR CURRENTLY OBSERVED UPSTREAM WITHIN THE AIRMASS. WITH              
LATE AFTN SFC TEMPS IN ALBERTA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND ERN MT RANGING              
FROM -10F TO -25F...IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE TEMPS REFLECTED IN THIS FCST            
ISSUANCE MAY BE TOO HIGH.                                                       
THU THRU MON...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE              
STORM TRACK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND AND                   
BEYOND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROP SE THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA                
INTO THE WRN STATES AND THEN LIFT E OR NE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN              
CONUS. SYSTEMS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCERS WITH STRONG GULF              
OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONNECTIONS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FCST                   
PERIOD...ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN                 
PLAINS. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT TODAY IN WHAT THE TRACK             
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AS IT HEADS NE. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND                 
GLOBAL CANADIAN ARE INDICATING SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY PASS A LITTLE               
TOO FAR TO THE SE TO HAVE A BIG AFFECT ON THE WEATHER HERE.                     
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUED ITS NW TREND (LAST 4 RUNS THRU 00Z                
RUN...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE SE A LITTLE) AND THE              
UKMET PROVIDES SUPPORT. THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD PROVIDE A POSSIBLE                
ADVY SNOWFALL OVER THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA. SO IN THE END...               
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH...AND BEST COURSE OF                 
ACTION WILL BE TO STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST WHICH DID BRING CHC               
POPS TO MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN FCST AREA FRI WITH ASSUMPTION THAT THE            
NW FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM MIGHT REACH THE AREA. THERE IS REASONABLE               
AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE TAKING A MORE NRN ROUTE WILL             
PASS THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT. CHC POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ARE                
WARRANTED FOR THIS FEATURE. NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE             
WRN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT INTO THE WRN                
PLAINS MON. RECENT ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE HAD A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS             
TO BE A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE             
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEADING EDGE OF EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD              
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MON. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND TRACK            
OF SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE MIXED PCPN ISSUES...BUT ONLY SNOW WILL BE            
MENTIONED FOR NOW. AFTER THU...DAILY TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE             
NORMAL THRU MON (NORMALS ARE ROUGHLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO            
FOR MINS AND MD 20S FOR MAXES).                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LOW CLOUDS TAKING SHAPE AT BOTH TAF SITES AS PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE              
AREA THIS EVENING.                                                              
FOR CMX...PREVAILING PCPN TYPE BY 06Z MAY BE MORE SNOW AS COLDER AIR            
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL DEPART NE              
OF AREA BY LATE TONIGHT SO EXPECT PCPN TO END TOWARD 12Z. UNTIL THEN            
KEPT IN PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WITH A TEMPO GROUP             
FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FM 06-10Z. A COLD FRONT              
MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THE WRLY                 
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY SUNRISE...BUT AIR COLD ENOUGH TO                   
PRODUCE LAKE  EFFECT SNOW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 18Z. BY                     
19Z...CONBINATION OF LES AND SHOULD LOWER PREVAILING VBSY DOWN TO               
2SM. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP 20-24Z FOR 1/4SM IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW               
WITH IFR CIGS. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z IN SNOW AND BLOWING                
SNOW.                                                                           
AT SAW...WARM MOIST FLOW MOVING OVER SNOWPACK SHOULD ALLOW FOR                  
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS PERHAPS BORDERING ON IFR LATE              
TONIGHT UNDER DZ SCENARIO. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TUE MORNING                 
SHOULD RAISE CEILINGS BACK INTO THE HIGH MVFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING.            
ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR AND WAVE MOVING UP BACKSIDE OF COLD FRONT                 
SHOULD RESULT IN PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW BY 21Z WITH A TEMPO              
GROUP 21-24Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG                
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY EVENING WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS WITH VSBYS              
AROUND 4SM IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SOUTHERLY GALES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALES            
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NE SOUTH DAKOTA LIFTS INTO             
NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT IN            
THE WAKE OF THE LOWS COLD FRONT...WITH 30 KT SPEEDS LIKELY ON TUE               
AS ARCTIC AIR FLOWS IN. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE            
COLD FRONT AND LIFT TOWARDS FAR EASTERN UPPER MI TUE NIGHT.                     
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR NORTHWEST STORM             
FORCE WINDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ANY             
EVENT...GALES LOOK LIKE TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH SLOWLY ON WED AND THEN MORE SO WED NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. BEYOND WED NIGHT...THE ONLY                 
SYSTEM OF INTEREST TO BRING POTENTIALLY HIGHER WINDS IS ON FRIDAY               
WHEN A LOW LIFTS UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE                  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. RIGHT NOW...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KT AS            
THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                             
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR FLOWING IN ON TUESDAY...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY                
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE...BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR                    
WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST TUE NIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL                 
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS RELAX WITH THE INCOMING HIGH                  
PRESSURE RIDGE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...                                                                     
  BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                       
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003.                                                  
  BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING                 
     FOR MIZ006-007-085.                                                        
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                   
     MORNING FOR MIZ012>014.                                                    
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                           
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST                    
    THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                                                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AJ                                                                 
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA                                             
930 PM PST MON JAN 28 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS WILL CHANGE OVER TO                 
RAIN BY LATE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY              
WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW WILL             
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL                
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA ON                    
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A COOL AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE                  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MODERATE WAA HAS CHANGED THE SNOW OVER TO A CHILLY RAIN OR A RAIN/              
SNOW MIX AT MOST LOCALES. THERE WERE POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS               
THE N COAST AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW              
OCCURRING OVER WRN WHATCOM COUNTY. THE SNOW OVER THE N COAST AND THE            
STRAIT WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY LATE TONIGHT.             
HOWEVER SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WRN WHATCOM COUNTY WHERE THE                 
DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR WAS DEEPER. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL THE SNOW                
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT WRN WHATCOM COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...WHERE             
THERE WERE POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NEAR AN INCH OR            
LESS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS.                                                      
MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS CDFNT OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST LATE             
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE. EXPECT INCREASING SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS                 
FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS IN THE NW INTERIOR WHERE               
SPEEDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW               
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE OLYMPICS AND                    
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUE.                                       
ANTICIPATE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERY WEATHER TUE NIGHT. A PUGET SOUND                
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY TUE NIGHT. THE AIR MASS              
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME CHILLY...SO DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME              
SNOW OVER SRN SNOHOMISH COUNTY TUE NIGHT WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE                 
ZONE. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON WED FOR MORE                
RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW.                                             
.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE            
RIDGING WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 155W AND 160W THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND             
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP SE BETWEEN OUR AREA AND CENTRAL OREGON.            
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND WET...AND PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION IN THE              
FORM OF SNOW AT TIMES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MOUNTAIN                  
SNOWPACK WILL BUILD NICELY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PATTERN              
BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF SYSTEMS. FORECASTS WILL                 
GENERALLY BE BROAD BRUSHED. ALBRECHT                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION....MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED                 
SPOTS OF IFR. EXPECTING TO SCALE BACK ON MENTION OF SNOW IN THE                 
UPCOMING TAF PACKAGE. MOST RECENT RUN OF RUC MODEL PUTS FREEZING                
LEVEL NEAR 1500 FEET AT 06Z. KSEW PROFILER DATA AT 03Z SUGGESTS                 
FREEZING LEVEL IS ALREADY AT LEAST THAT HIGH. COMBINE THIS WITH                 
DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE AND MANY DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE             
FREEZING...AND SNOW CHANCES DECREASE. WILL MENTION POSSIBLE RAIN AND            
SNOW MIX EARLY AT MOST INTERIOR TERMINALS...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL              
BE TOWARD STRAIGHT RAIN BY 09Z OR SO. THE ONLY TERMINAL WHICH WILL              
BE ALL SNOW WILL BE BELLINGHAM UNTIL 10 OR 12Z...WHEN SOUTHERLIES               
SCOUR OUT COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. MESOSCALE MODELS BRING WINDS NEAR            
5000 FT UP TO 50 KNOTS OUT OF THE S AND SW NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF               
FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WINDS ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY              
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY             
FAVOR RAIN SHADOWING AT SOME OF THE PUGET SOUND TERMINALS AND A                 
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS.                                               
FOR KSEA...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AS ALL SNOW. A              
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 09Z...BUT IT SHOULD BE             
ALL RAIN THEREAFTER. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS                
TIME. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY                   
MENTIONED...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5000 FT WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS                   
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z NEAR AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE WINDS                
WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY                   
TUESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KNOTS OR SO AT TIMES. 27                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL BE KEEPING EXISTING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR NOW.             
POST FRONTAL WINDS OVER INTERIOR WATERS...NAMELY PUGET SOUND...MAY              
APPROACH GALE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK FOR THE            
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. 27                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVALANCHE...AVALANCHE WARNING FOR WASHINGTON CASCADES, OLYMPICS AND            
MT HOOD AREA FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                   
NUMEROUS WEAK LAYERS IN PLACE AS WELL AS FIRM UNDERLYING CRUSTS TO              
PROVIDE SLIDING SURFACES. INCOMING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY LOADING               
WILL TIP THE BALANCE AND MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD AVALANCHES TUESDAY. SEE            
NWAC.US FOR FORECAST DETAILS. KK                                                
&&                                                                              
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE                        
     OLYMPICS AND CASCADES.                                                     
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST TUESDAY FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.           
     AVALANCHE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES TUE.             
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.                
     GALE WARNING STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-COASTAL WATERS.                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.                                     
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV                                                                     
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
309 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED                    
WEATHER.                                                                        
MODELS INDICATE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CWA                    
TODAY...BEGINNING IN THE MORNING FAR WEST AND REACHING THE EAST BY              
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF QPF AMOUNTS TO BE                 
MORE IN LINE WITH HPC..GFS AND ECMWF. TOTAL AMOUNTS NOW EXPECTED                
TO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. VERY DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW A FEW HOURS              
BEHIND THE H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL SHUT DOWN ACCUMULATING               
SNOW. MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH BRINGING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS                
BEHIND THE FRONT. H850 WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50KT AROUND 00Z.                
HOWEVER...BEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE DIVING TOWARD OKLAHOMA AT              
THIS TIME ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC WITH AGREES WITH NAM                          
GUIDANCE...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HEAD SOUTH WITH THE                   
PRESSURE FALLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING FROM EARLY MORNING                 
HIGHS IN THE WEST...AND LATE MORNING IN THE EAST.                               
THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...STRONG WINDS...PLUNGING                
TEMPERATURES...REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND DANGEROUS WIND          
CHILLS HAS PR OPTED THE WINTER STORM WARNING RATHER THAN ANY SINGLE             
ELEMENT. IN ADDITION...THESE EVENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT A TIME OF              
HEAVIER TRAFFIC.                                                                
IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING.                   
HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL                    
CONTINUE. WIND CHILLS WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.                             
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE START OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL              
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW               
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                   
HOWEVER...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF                      
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IS BASICALLY ALONE IN              
GENERATING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.              
AMOUNTS IF ANY OCCUR WILL BE LESS THAN 3 INCHES.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE                  
SUPERIOR WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS DROP             
FURTHER TO NEAR 1000 FT TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR LIFR                      
CONDITIONS BY TUE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.                  
EXPECT ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIX BEFORE               
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THE PRECIPITATION                  
SHOULD INCREASE AS A SECONDARY LOW MOVES UP THE FRONT LATER THIS                
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25                 
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO OVER 40 KNOTS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SLACKENING THIS MORNING AHEAD            
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS               
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME              
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.  BITTERLY COLD AIR TO POUR             
IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO TUESDAY            
NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY                 
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST              
     TONIGHT FOR WIZ046-047-051-056>058-062>064-067>069.                        
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST                    
     WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.                          
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST              
     TONIGHT FOR WIZ052-059-060-065-066-070>072.                                
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST            
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.                                                  
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...35/06                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE...06                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
926 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FIRST OF I AM SURE MANY UPDATES COMING OUT SHORTLY...WITH NEAR                  
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NOW EXPECTED ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN                
MISSOURI AS SKY HAS CLEARED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                                 
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT KSTL IS 67 (1988).                                     
THIS WILL ALSO YIELD SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 700              
J/KG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS MORE THAN               
ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SUCH STRONG FORCING                 
WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEARING                       
75KTS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN                    
THREAT BEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS.                                                 
OTHERWISE FRONT ON TRACK TO CLEAR QUINCY AREA WITHIN NEXT HOUR AND              
COLUMBIA/JEFFERSON CITY BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON. THE ST. LOUIS                   
METROPOLITAN AREA WILL SEE FROPA BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM.                            
CVKING                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN WX STORY WILL REVOLVE AROUND TWO ITEMS. THE FIRST IS SYSTEM                
TO AFFECT THE AREA PRIMARILY TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CARRY A BIT                
INTO THIS EVENING. A VERY STRONG CDFNT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA                 
TODAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND RESULT IN AN ENORMOUS TEMP               
DROP WHEN IT PASSES THRU...OF 30-40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...MOSTLY                 
WITHIN THE SPAN OF ABOUT 4 HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE                    
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR...WITH TEMPS FROM 55 TO 60...AND                
DEWPOINTS FROM 50 TO 55. ADD IN THE VERY SHARP CDFNT...A STRONG                 
MID LEVEL TROF...A LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 160KT H300 JET BY                      
MIDDAY...AND ONE HAS THE INGREDIENTS FOR EXPLOSIVE PCPN                         
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST THRU THE KUIN AND KCOU AREAS BY THAT               
TIME. P-TYPE WILL BE SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHERE ENOUGH                
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND DEEP LIFT. HIGH                 
WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND...WHERE KMDH HAD 47KT GUSTS JUST FROM A               
LIGHT SHOWER...WILL ENABLE ANY CONVECTION TO NOT HAVE TO WORK TOO               
HARD TO MIX DOWN SEVERE CRITERIA GUSTS...THUS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR               
SVR STMS IS JUSTIFIED FOR AREAS AROUND THE STL METRO AREA AND PTS               
TO THE S AND E. NOT FAR BEHIND THE FRONT...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO                  
SNOW...AND PERHAPS SLEET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR               
UNDERCUTS AIR THAT IS NOT COOLING AS RAPIDLY...CREATING A BRIEF                 
PERIOD WHERE A WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST. SNOW AMOUNTS                 
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE                  
NWRN FA...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE ELSWHERE. SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME              
TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.                                                   
OTHER BIG ITEM TODAY IS WIND. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30MPH WILL BE                
COMMON...AND ONCE CDFNT PUSHES THRU...SHEAR STRENGTH OF CAA AND                 
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45MPH.                  
WINDS WILL TAKE ALL NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING...BUT NOT BEFORE                   
PUSHING WIND CHILL VALUES TO 10 BELOW IN THE NRN FA LATE TONIGHT.               
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SNOW STORM SLATED FOR LATE THIS WEEK.               
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TRACKS...WHILE               
THE SYSTEM ITSELF IS STILL OVER THE NRN PACIFIC. THEREFORE...ANY                
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE CONSERVATIVE IN NATURE UNTIL              
THE NOAM UPPER AIR NETWORK CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS. THE                 
MODEL TRENDS ARE THUS...THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST S ON               
TRACK...WITH THE GFS CONT TO SLOLY TREND MORE SLY ON ITS TRACK.                 
NAM/GFS REMAIN THE FASTEST ON FORWARD SPEED...BUT THE ECWMF...BY                
FAR THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL              
DAYS...HAS SPED UP ITS FORWARD SPEED AS WELL TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH              
THE NAM/GFS. THESE TRENDS ALL SUGGEST THAT MODELS ARE COMING MORE               
CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE MORE SLY NAM TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE                 
BULK OF THE GOOD SNOW CHANCES TO THE S...AND LIMIT WHAT SNOW CAN                
LINGER THRU FRIDAY...BUT THE 00Z ECWMF STILL STUBBORNLY SUGGESTS                
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE CNTRL/SRN FA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AND               
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE IT WEIGHT IN THE FORECAST.                                
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ST/SC IN WRM SECTOR THAT WAS WDSPRD ERYR IN THE              
NGT BREAKING UP ATTM. HWVR...THINK THIS WL BE A TEMPORARY                       
CONDITION IN MOST AREAS...AND EXPECTED A SCT-BKN DECK ARND 3KFT TO              
PREVAIL AHD OF THE FRONT FROM LTR THIS MRNG TIL FROPA.  HV TIMED                
FROPA AT EACH LOCATION WITH A COMBO OF EXTRAPOLATION AND RUC                    
DATA...AND ONCE FROPA OCRS LO MVFR CIGS SHUD QUICKLY MOVE INTO                  
TERMINAL AREA AND NW WNDS WL JUMP RAPIDLY. BLV CNVTN WL FIRE AFT                
FRONT PASSES BOTH UIN AND COU...SO HV KEPT TS OUT OF THE FCSTS FOR              
THESE AREAS. FEEL THAT CNVTV THRT ALG FRNT WL BCM MORE ENHANCED                 
JUST ABT THE TIME THE IT ENTERS THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA...AND SINCE             
CVG OF STORMS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT AT THAT TIME HV USED                 
VC TO HIGHLIGHT TSRA THRT AT BOTH STL AND SUS. IF STORMS DO DVLP                
SOONER IMPACT...AND INTENSITY...OF THE STORMS WL LIKELY BE MUCH                 
GRTR. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RPD MVMT OF THE FRONT WL MEAN                   
ONLY A VRY SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR TS TO IMPACT TERMINAL POINTS.                  
TRUETT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-               
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-                  
     KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-                         
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST.                
     FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-                   
     WASHINGTON.                                                                
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-            
     BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY                 
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-               
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
649 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN WX STORY WILL REVOLVE AROUND TWO ITEMS. THE FIRST IS SYSTEM                
TO AFFECT THE AREA PRIMARILY TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CARRY A BIT                
INTO THIS EVENING. A VERY STRONG CDFNT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA                 
TODAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND RESULT IN AN ENORMOUS TEMP               
DROP WHEN IT PASSES THRU...OF 30-40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...MOSTLY                 
WITHIN THE SPAN OF ABOUT 4 HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE                    
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR...WITH TEMPS FROM 55 TO 60...AND                
DEWPOINTS FROM 50 TO 55. ADD IN THE VERY SHARP CDFNT...A STRONG                 
MID LEVEL TROF...A LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 160KT H300 JET BY                      
MIDDAY...AND ONE HAS THE INGREDIENTS FOR EXPLOSIVE PCPN                         
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST THRU THE KUIN AND KCOU AREAS BY THAT               
TIME. P-TYPE WILL BE SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHERE ENOUGH                
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND DEEP LIFT. HIGH                 
WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND...WHERE KMDH HAD 47KT GUSTS JUST FROM A               
LIGHT SHOWER...WILL ENABLE ANY CONVECTION TO NOT HAVE TO WORK TOO               
HARD TO MIX DOWN SEVERE CRITERIA GUSTS...THUS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR               
SVR STMS IS JUSTIFIED FOR AREAS AROUND THE STL METRO AREA AND PTS               
TO THE S AND E. NOT FAR BEHIND THE FRONT...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO                  
SNOW...AND PERHAPS SLEET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR               
UNDERCUTS AIR THAT IS NOT COOLING AS RAPIDLY...CREATING A BRIEF                 
PERIOD WHERE A WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST. SNOW AMOUNTS                 
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE                  
NWRN FA...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE ELSWHERE. SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME              
TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING.                                                   
OTHER BIG ITEM TODAY IS WIND. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30MPH WILL BE                
COMMON...AND ONCE CDFNT PUSHES THRU...SHEAR STRENGTH OF CAA AND                 
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45MPH.                  
WINDS WILL TAKE ALL NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING...BUT NOT BEFORE                   
PUSHING WIND CHILL VALUES TO 10 BELOW IN THE NRN FA LATE TONIGHT.               
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SNOW STORM SLATED FOR LATE THIS WEEK.               
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TRACKS...WHILE               
THE SYSTEM ITSELF IS STILL OVER THE NRN PACIFIC. THEREFORE...ANY                
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE CONSERVATIVE IN NATURE UNTIL              
THE NOAM UPPER AIR NETWORK CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS. THE                 
MODEL TRENDS ARE THUS...THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST S ON               
TRACK...WITH THE GFS CONT TO SLOLY TREND MORE SLY ON ITS TRACK.                 
NAM/GFS REMAIN THE FASTEST ON FORWARD SPEED...BUT THE ECWMF...BY                
FAR THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL              
DAYS...HAS SPED UP ITS FORWARD SPEED AS WELL TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH              
THE NAM/GFS. THESE TRENDS ALL SUGGEST THAT MODELS ARE COMING MORE               
CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE MORE SLY NAM TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP THE                 
BULK OF THE GOOD SNOW CHANCES TO THE S...AND LIMIT WHAT SNOW CAN                
LINGER THRU FRIDAY...BUT THE 00Z ECWMF STILL STUBBORNLY SUGGESTS                
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE CNTRL/SRN FA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AND               
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE IT WEIGHT IN THE FORECAST.                                
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ST/SC IN WRM SECTOR THAT WAS WDSPRD ERYR IN THE              
NGT BREAKING UP ATTM. HWVR...THINK THIS WL BE A TEMPORARY                       
CONDITION IN MOST AREAS...AND EXPECTED A SCT-BKN DECK ARND 3KFT TO              
PREVAIL AHD OF THE FRONT FROM LTR THIS MRNG TIL FROPA.  HV TIMED                
FROPA AT EACH LOCATION WITH A COMBO OF EXTRAPOLATION AND RUC                    
DATA...AND ONCE FROPA OCRS LO MVFR CIGS SHUD QUICKLY MOVE INTO                  
TERMINAL AREA AND NW WNDS WL JUMP RAPIDLY. BLV CNVTN WL FIRE AFT                
FRONT PASSES BOTH UIN AND COU...SO HV KEPT TS OUT OF THE FCSTS FOR              
THESE AREAS. FEEL THAT CNVTV THRT ALG FRNT WL BCM MORE ENHANCED                 
JUST ABT THE TIME THE IT ENTERS THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA...AND SINCE             
CVG OF STORMS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT AT THAT TIME HV USED                 
VC TO HIGHLIGHT TSRA THRT AT BOTH STL AND SUS. IF STORMS DO DVLP                
SOONER IMPACT...AND INTENSITY...OF THE STORMS WL LIKELY BE MUCH                 
GRTR. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RPD MVMT OF THE FRONT WL MEAN                   
ONLY A VRY SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR TS TO IMPACT TERMINAL POINTS.                  
TRUETT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR                 
     AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-                   
     IRON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-MONITEAU-                 
     MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST.                     
     CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE.                         
     GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.                                               
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS           
     IL-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE                
     IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-                   
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON                  
     IL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
255 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)...                            
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW TONIGHT...                     
STRONG COLD FRONT POISED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS                        
EVENING...WITH BIG CHANGES IN-STORE FOR THE AREA. SFC LOW JUST NORTH            
OF CHICAGO AS OF 2PM EST...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE              
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CHICAGO AND ON FURTHER TOWARDS STL INTO THE            
LITTLE ROCK AREA AND ON INTO EAST TX. DRASTIC TEMPERATURE GRADIENT              
ACROSS THE FRONT...WITH 20-25 DEGREE FALLS IN TEMPS WITHIN AN HOUR              
OR SO OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE USED OB TRENDS BLENDED WITH THE RUC13            
RUNS TO CAPTURE SOME DETAIL TO THE FRONTAL POSITION AND RAPID TEMP              
FALLS...WITH A SLIGHT BLEND OF THE GFS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.              
WAS SUSPECT OF THE NAM12...WHICH USUALLY DOES WELL IN THE VERY NEAR             
TERM...BUT IT INITIALIZED MORE THAN 7-10 DEGREES TOO COOL AND                   
CONTINUED TO BE AT OR MORE THAN 10 DEGREES TOO COOL THRU THE DAY.               
BAD THERMAL FIELDS WITH P-TYPE QUESTIONS AT HAND ARE NEVER A GOOD               
THING SO STAYED AWAY FROM THE MODEL FOR THE MOST PART.                          
AS THE SFC LOW STARTS TO PULL FURTHER NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES                
REGION AND MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL              
START TO MAKE ITS WAY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                     
EVENING...COMPLETELY PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN               
INTO NORTHCENTRAL OH BY MIDNIGHT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE                
REGION IT WILL PROVIDE BETTER FOCUSING OF THE PRECIP...WITH                     
SCTD/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MOST LIKELY A THIN               
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.               
WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SO QUICK ACROSS THE REGION THE RAINFALL                  
AMOUNTS WILL BE NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT...WITH A LIQUID TOTAL OF AROUND             
.25 LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF            
SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM...AND MUCAPES NEAR 200-300 J/KG...STRONG WINDS IN            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT              
IS THROUGH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL AS WELL. ANOTHER FACTOR                 
WILL BE AS THE DRY SLOT SEEN ON THE WV IMAGERY STARTS TO DRIFT EAST             
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A STRONG 160KT JET MAX PUSHING                     
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ONLY               
ADD SOME CREDENCE TO THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE                           
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
THEN THE NEXT TWO FEATURES WILL COME TO PLAY ACROSS THE                         
REGION...FIRST THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND INTENSE            
PUSHING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...TEMPS WILL DROP BY 20-25              
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FIRST 60-120 MINUTES AFTER FRONTAL              
PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S VERY QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR              
FAST FREEZING OF THE ROADWAYS AND MAY ALLOW FOR VERY HAZARDOUS                  
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY. THE WINDS IN COMBINATION               
WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIR DRIVEN TEMPS TO OR JUST UNDER 10 BY                    
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH CREATE APPARENT TEMPS AS LOW AS -15 OR -20              
DEGREES. THE SECOND PUNCH WILL BE THE MINOR SNOW ACCUMS FOR MUCH OF             
THE AREA...THIS FALLING ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE BLACK ICE WILL ONLY              
WORSEN ROADWAYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BETTER ACCUMS NEARING             
2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE             
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE DEFORMATION AREA AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT.              
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL FALL UNDER THE DAMPENING POWER OF               
THE DRY SLOT AND NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOWFALL WITH MOST GETTING                 
AROUND OR LESS THAN AN INCH.                                                    
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE WINDS WILL HAVE LESSENED SLIGHTLY...BUT               
THE CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE WESTERLY OR              
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. COMBO OF CLOUD COVER MUCH OF               
THE DAY..AND THE CAA WILL NOT ALLOW THE HIGHS TO CLIMB MUCH MORE                
THAN INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NORTHERN                    
PORTIONS OF THE AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH 15. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY            
PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH              
THE AFTER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA JUST EAST OF THE LAKE WHERE            
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY LINGER AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN               
THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                                 
...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY...                                        
SW UPPER MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT A VERY              
ACTIVE PATTERN. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE EASTERN                
PACIFIC WILL DIVE SOUTH AROUND MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN                  
CONUS...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO               
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH AMPLE COLD AIR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION                   
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...STRONG                  
BAROCLINICITY WILL BE FAVORED.                                                  
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENT             
WINTER STORM STORM SYSTEM TAKING AIM AT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT               
INTO FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENCY IS INCREASING FROM RUN TO               
RUN...AS A SFC CYCLONE TRACK EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH OH IS                   
FAVORED. GEFS MEAN ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH                   
TRACKING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WESTERN OH...A SOLUTION THAT IS ALSO               
FAVORED BY THE LATEST NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AND GEM. WITH THE OVERALL             
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER                 
JET/INTENSIFYING SFC CYCLONE/AMPLE GULF MOISTURE/SHALLOW COLD                   
AIR/MAX OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HEAVY ACCUMULATING            
SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WHERE              
CSI WOULD BE PRESENT UNDER INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THERE IS            
LITTLE DOUBT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES DURING                
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONLY QUESTION STILL REMAINING IS PRECIP TYPE              
PER SFC LOW TRACK. EARLY RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WAVERED ON              
THE TRACK FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                 
EVEN THOUGH A TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL OH LOOKS FAVORED...THERE IS                 
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...STEMMING PRIMARILY FROM THE INTENSITY AND              
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX. AS FOR NOW...HAVE SHIFTED THE             
ZR/IP/SN MENTION TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE BUFFER                     
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERIOD OF MIX PRECIP AT LIMA OH.               
THINGS QUIET DOWN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WHERE HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER...SAVE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE                
PROGGED SAT/SAT NIGHT WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL IN MAINLY NORTHERN              
PORTIONS OF THE FA. ANOTHER POTENT SYSTEM STILL IS IN THE WORKS FOR             
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS                  
AMPLIFIES. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRESENT IN THE                   
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ONE THING THAT CONTINUES TO BE                  
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS THE FA WILL BE IN THE WARM                
SECTOR WITH THIS STORM. HOWEVER...GIVEN POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW                    
FRIDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SIG WARMUP IN THE EXTENDED. HAVE                  
INTRODUCED RAIN/SNOW WORDING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROGGED               
SYSTEM.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                         
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND NEARLY AREAWIDE...LOWER CIGS THE MAIN                  
REASON..THOUGH SOME SCTD AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS                
THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON               
AND EARLY EVENING...MAYBE EVEN A TSRA. BORDERLINE LLWS ISSUE AT                 
TIME WITH 40KTS AROUND 2.0 K FT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD START TO                  
INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO LESSEN THIS ISSUE. CIGS WILL                  
REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 2 K FT RANGE...WITH SCTD SHRA THROUGH THE                    
EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF.                  
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST                 
AND WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGHS AS 35-40KTS.              
RAIN WILL TURN TO /SLEET THEN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AN HOUR OR SO              
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT. CIGS MAY LIFT TO               
2-2.5 K FT BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRECIP COMING TO AN               
END ACROSS MUCH/MOST OF THE REGION.                                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR            
     INZ007>009-013-015>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO           
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ003>006-012-014.                     
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR            
     MIZ081.                                                                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST                
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ080.                                                      
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST                   
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077>079.                                                  
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR            
     OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                                        
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST            
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                                                  
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                         
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1235 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRONG UPPER LOW SEEN OVER IA ON LATEST GOES WV LOOP HAS DEVELOPED              
TIGHT FRONTOGENETIC FORCED BAND ON ITS MOIST UPGLIDE. RUC                       
PARAMETERS ON CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE SNOW BAND INDICATE                     
INSTABILITY ALOFT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WHICH THEN RAPIDLY                    
DECREASES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE                 
REGION. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS FALLING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER                    
ARCTIC AIR MASS AND TOGETHER WITH THE LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW              
HAS LED TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ALBERTA LEA AND NEARBY                        
COMMUNITIES. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE HAS BEEN DISPLACEMENT               
OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE GREATEST ECHOS ON RADAR DUE               
TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS. SO HAVE REALLY CUT BACK                
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM...INCLUDING OVER THE TWIN CITIES              
THIS AFTN. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 40               
BELOW RANGE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. SOME ISOLATED -40 TO -45 WIND                  
CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HIGHER GROUNDS NEAR ALEXANDRIA.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 530 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008/                                             
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF              
THE NATION TDA. A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH FAST                  
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE                
NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PLUMMET AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND                  
TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE              
DAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL COMMENCES OVER WESTERN HALF OF OUR               
CWA BEFORE NOON WITH NEW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.                
BEST FORCING OCCURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN                
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE                   
ANYWHERE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME CONSIDERABLY            
BLOWING SNOW...NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN OPEN AREAS. WL CONTINUE              
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...THEN GO WITH            
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHERE               
WIND CHILL WILL LOWER TO 28-39 BELOW ZERO.                                      
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE  GREAT LAKES              
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING               
WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO NEAR MORRIS AND ALEXANDRIA WITH               
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE RIVER                
VALLEYS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.                                            
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER            
THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  700 MB OMEGA FIELD SHOWED AN                   
INCREASE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS INTO THE            
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SNOW.                                                       
LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE                
WORK WEEK...AS UPPER AIR FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN            
TIER OF CONUS.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE                
INTO THE 20S AS MORE MODIFY PACIFIC AIR FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST                
AREAS THIS WEEKEND.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
TIGHT BAND OF SNOW ROTATING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND              
WEST CTRL WI EARLY THIS AFTN. EAU LOOKS TO FEEL THE BRUNT OF                    
THIS...WITH SOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW THROUGH                         
MID-AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO THIS                   
AREA AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND THIS AFTN. MVFR VISBYS HAVE                  
EXISTED OUTSIDE OF THE ACTUAL SNOWFALL WHERE BLOWING SNOW IS                    
OCCURRING. TRENDS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AND NOT MANY SITES WERE TOO               
LOW TO BEGIN WITH...LIKELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER NOT BEING FRESH.               
GRADIENT MAINTAINS ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SURFACE                  
PRESSURE RISE AXIS HAVING PASSED...SO WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD              
BE FAIRLY CONSTANT. THESE SHOULD DECREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE                  
EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY                 
WORK THEIR WAY TO SKC TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE DEEP DRY ARCTIC AIR                
MASS BUILDS IN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-           
     BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-                    
     DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI                
     PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-                   
     NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-                
     SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-                       
     WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                                           
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST                    
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-               
     CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-                
     ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-                    
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-                    
     REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-               
     STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW                
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FREEBORN-               
     GOODHUE-STEELE.                                                            
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BARRON-          
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                 
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST                    
     WEDNESDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-                
     POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
222 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
FOCUS ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT MIN                         
TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED WIND CHILL INDICES. AS OF                 
19Z...STILL ABOUT A 10 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG              
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SINKS IN FROM               
THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPS STEADILY DECLINE.                                       
GENERALLY TRANSITIONED FROM RUC TO NAM GUIDANCE FOR WINDS THROUGH               
TOMORROW MORNING...AS BOTH MODELS FORECAST WINDS HAVE PERFORMED                 
WELL SO FAR TODAY. IN GENERAL...NAM WINDS REMAIN ABOVE 10 MPH                   
THROUGH 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS              
DROPPING INTO THE NEG 20S TONIGHT...WITH RESULTING WIND CHILL                   
INDICES REMAINING IN WARNING CRITERIA /LESS THAN NEG 35/ THROUGH                
6 AM. WHILE WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE NEG 25 TO NEG 35 RANGE               
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT AFT 6 AM.                       
THEREFORE...LEFT EXPIRATION TIME FOR WARNING AT 6 AM.                           
FOCUS FOR MID PART OF SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPS. BOTH GFS AND                 
NAM HAVE A VORT MAX PUSH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL DAKOTAS WED                      
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT IN FROM                 
THE WEST...WITH THE NAM SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER. I LIKE THE IDEA              
THAT THE NAM DRIES OUT THE COLUMN AS THE CLOUDS PUSH EAST INTO OUR              
FA...WHERE THE CENTER OF AN ARCTIC HIGH IS SET UP AROUND 06Z THU.               
GFS KEEPS RH VALUES HIGHER AND I BELIEVE OVERDOES CLOUD COVERAGE.               
THUS...COULD SEE SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR WEST...WHICH COULD                 
IMPACT WED NIGHT LOWS.                                                          
BY FRIDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS              
SRN CANADA. NAM IS MUCH DRIER THAN GFS IN THE QPF                               
FIELD...GENERATING MOST PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS               
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER CONDENSATION                      
PRESSURE DEFICITS DONT DROP MUCH BELOW 10...THEREFORE DONT BELIEVE              
THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP. DID KEEP POPS IN IN                 
THE NORTHEAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR SATURATION...BUT              
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN A PRECIP EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.            
.LONG TERM... /SAT TO TUE/                                                      
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER                                      
THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO A 500 MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH                
SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z AND 06Z RUNS WERE BULLISH WITH A LOW AND LOTS OF              
PCPN...WHICH SEEMED SUSPECT AS MAIN UPPER JET AT 250 MB WOULD SEND              
MOST SHORT WAVES TO OUR SOUTH AROUND ERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE. 12Z               
GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON SUNDAY SYTEM AND SHOWS 500 MB TROUGH PASSAGE              
BUT MAIN VORT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAKER SHORT WAVE AND SFC                 
LOW THRU SD INTO MN. AGREE WITH THIS SCENERIO AND IN HAVING LOW                 
20-30 POPS FOR THIS EVENT SUN AFTN-SUN NIGHT...EXTENDED IT INTO                 
MONDAY PER HPC. NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND SYSTEM                
FOR MON NIGHT-TUES...BUT DISAGREEMENT EXISTS ON HOW COLD WITH 00Z               
ECMWF NOT AS COLD AS GFS AND CANADIAN. HPC TEMPS SEEMED TOO WARM                
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWERED HIGHS ACCORDINGLY MUCH MORE TOWARD               
THE 12Z MEX GUIDANCE WHICH FIT THE 00Z ENSEMBLE GFS MOS WELL.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN CLEARING PROGRESSING EASTWARD...BUT AS IS USUAL WITH VERY COLD             
ARCTIC AIR OVERHEAD GETTING SOME RESIDUAL THIN BROKEN LAYERS OF                 
STRATOCU AROUND 2000 FT AGL WHICH ARE PICKED UP BY AWOS/ASOS                    
CEILOMETERS.  MAY TAKE PAST 00Z FOR RESIDUAL THIN STRATOCU TO GO                
AWAY.  OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  WINDS SLOWLY              
DIMINISHING THRU THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS TAPERING OFF BY 03Z.                      
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-                
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.                                   
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-        
     022>024-027>032-040.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPEICHER/HOMANN/RIDDLE                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
334 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM WAS IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AT 20Z AS IT CONTINUED TO MOVE                 
NORTH ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE FRONT EXITED THE CWA EARLY THIS                
AFTERNOON...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE RAPIDLY. MORNING                     
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S HAD ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN THE                
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA BY 20Z. FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET                    
CHANGED TO SNOW OVER MOST OF EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 21Z. RADAR                    
MOSAIC SHOWED SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DURING               
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WAS HEAVIER IN THE WESTERN CWA WHERE                        
VISIBILITIES WERE LESS THAN A MILE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE                   
SNOW STARTED DURING THE LATE MORNING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND                   
WINDS WERE STARTING TO INCREASE IN THAT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.               
WINDS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT                
CAUSING PERIODS OF NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE               
WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT AN THE RUC WAS LOOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THE               
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THEN ATTEMPTED MOSTLY WENT WITH THE                    
COLDEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND ATTEMPTED TO MESH WITH ADJACENT                    
FORECASTS. LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS                   
EVENING...WITH SOME SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN DOOR COUNTY UNTIL                    
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING TO AVOID              
MAKING THINGS MORE COMPLICATED...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CANCELED         
EARLY...ONCE THE SNOW WINDS DOWN...AND REPLACED WITH A WIND CHILL               
ADVISORY OR WARNING AS COLD TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS                   
RESULT IN BITTER COLD WIND CHILL READINGS.                                      
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.                              
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGES DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK WAA ALONG THE                   
WEST TO EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WI MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN               
OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO                  
THURSDAY. MDM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE NEXT SYSTEM SOUTH              
OF THE STATE TOWARD FRIDAY...PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING THE SOUTH HALF               
WITH MINOR ACCUM. EAST FETCH AND MARGINAL DELTA T/S CONTINUE TO                 
SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SO WILL                   
CONTINUE TO PLACE HIGHER POPS THERE.                                            
FOR THE WEEKEND...MDM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A                  
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOISTURE                  
APPEARS MARGINAL SO WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING. NEXT WEEK MONDAY              
INTO TUESDAY SYSTEM NOW TRENDING COLDER...BUT STILL HAS SOME                    
POTENTIAL OF A MIX FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACKING TO LOWER                    
MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO                
TUESDAY AS THE PROGGED UPPER TROF STILL ROTATING THROUGH.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS DURING           
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SNOW. VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD               
IMPROVE AS SNOW ENDS AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-               
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MG/TDH                                                                          
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