AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1006 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION                       
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT                 
ACTIVITY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER            
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE                
LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE                     
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO            
THE REGION. ON MONDAY A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE               
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING MAINLY RAIN              
TO OUR REGION.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                                
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUING AND NOSING INTO CAPITOL REGION AND              
BERKSHIRES. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH IN               
NORTHWEST FLOW. UPDATED CLOUDS/POPS/WEATHER BASED ON SATELLITE AND              
RADAR TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH                   
OVERNIGHT AFTER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. ON SATURDAY TEMPS WILL                   
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH             
HIGHS MAINLY 35 TO 40 SOUTH AS 850MB TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT -10C ACROSS            
AREA. CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING                   
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                            
WHILE MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST                  
ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN ADVANCE OF                            
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON SATURDAY                     
NIGHT...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP LATE ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO                 
THIRDS OF FA AS CLOUDS DIMINISH. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT MODERATING                
TREND ON SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTHEAST OF FA. H8 TEMPS              
EXPECTED TO BE 3-5C WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH H10-H5 THICKNESS                  
VALUES RISING FROM 522-531 DECAMETERS SATURDAY EVENING TO 537-543               
DECAMETERS SUNDAY EVENING...THUS EXPECTING TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON               
8-10F WARMER ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT LOOKS            
AS IF PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR INTO                   
MONDAY AND THIS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO PCPN TYPE. BASED ON                  
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...IF PCPN ARRIVES                  
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON MONDAY PTYPE WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING RAIN.                   
CURRENTLY GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY                   
NIGHT SOUTH OF MOHAWK VALLEY AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS IN                
HWO.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
ON MONDAY...THE 850 TROF WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN                      
MISSOURI BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT                    
LAKES. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE TO THE                      
GREAT LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS ALONG                    
THE APPALACHIANS BRINGING WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH                     
EASTERN STATES INTO THE REGION OVER THE COLDER AIR REMAINING                    
FROM THE HIGH THE PAST WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF                       
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH                      
IT COULD BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN WITH 925-850 TEMPERATURES                       
PLUS 2 HERE AT ALBANY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST                   
OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR EARLY MONDAY...TURNING                    
TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING                        
FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S                      
TO THE MID 40S. THE LOW MOVES TO LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY EVENING                    
AND UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO SOUTH                        
EASTERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING AND IT CONTINUES TO LIFT                      
NORTHEAST. AS IT LIFTS OUT DRIER AIR WILL BE BROUGHT IN                         
FROM THE NATION/S MIDSECTION AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A                         
HIGH WHICH WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS                        
HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TUESDAY AND THE FIRST PART                       
OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI                      
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY                         
THURSDAY. IT CONTINUES INTO THE MARITIMES AS ANOTHER HIGH                       
BUILDS OVER THE REGION TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FRIDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH              
00Z SUNDAY.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT KALB THIS EVENING            
ALONG WITH A BROKEN CEILING AROUND 3500FT.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS            
WITH MVFR CIG/VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OVER THE                 
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS. TOO COLD AND DRY FOR            
NIGHTTIME FOG.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT THIS EVENING AND STAY              
LOW ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN. SATURDAY MAINLY CLEAR                   
EARLY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT             
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KGFL AND              
NORTH.                                                                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SAT TO SUN NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR KGFL AND NORTH IN LIGHT             
SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.                                                      
MON TO TUE...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN.                         
TUE NIGHT TO WED...BACK TO VFR.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE HEAVY RAIN THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK BASIN                
OVER THE HOLIDAY REMAINED NORTH...SO THE RIVER AT UTICA WILL                    
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 400 FOOT ELEVATION TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY                 
RECEDE ABOUT A FOOT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A RELEASE OF JUST                   
UNDER 1000 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND CONTINUES OUT OF LAKE DELTA TO                 
LOWER THE LAKE LEVEL. THE MOOSE RIVER CRESTED A LITTLE OVER 6                   
FEET AT MCKEEVER AND IT WILL RECEDE ABOUT TWO FEET OVER THE NEXT                
TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE RAIN ALSO CAUSED THE HUDSON RIVER AT                    
NORTH CREEK TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT SINCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT                    
WAS CRESTING THERE THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CREST A LITTLE                      
OVER 5 FEET AT HADLEY THIS EVENING. A RELEASE OF 4100 CFS                       
WILL CONTINUE FROM GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE. THIS WILL KEEP THE                     
HUDSON RIVER UP SLIGHTLY BETWEEN CORINTH AND WATERFORD. MODEL                   
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD GET ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF                  
RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.                 
THE STORM LATER NEXT WEEK COULD BRING ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN                   
INCH OF RAIN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...11                                                                   
NEAR TERM...SND                                                                 
SHORT TERM...11                                                                 
LONG TERM...KILPATRICK                                                          
AVIATION...SND                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...KILPATRICK                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1240 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER               
INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN AREA OF                 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. EARLY NEXT                   
WEEK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT                 
LAKES...BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THE AREA...AS THE                
STORM/S WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...                                              
AT 1800 UTC...THE 40KM RUC AND MSAS OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW PRESSURE              
PASSING BETWEEN KRME AND KALB.  THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE FALL/RISE                
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE COUPLET WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING ALONG THE                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 3-HR PRESSURE RISES  OVER W-CNTRL PA...ERN OH             
...AND NRN WV ARE 5-6 HPA.  LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL             
DISTRICT PUNCHED INTO THE WARM AIR...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S.             
KALB HAS STRUGGLED TO GET TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE PCPN SHIELD              
HAS SHRUNK WITH THE FRONT/WAVE QUITE A BIT OVER THEN PAST FEW                   
HOURS.  THE BEST UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIVERGENCE WENT WELL                
N/NE INTO CANADA.  UPSTATE NY IS IN THE UNFAVORABLE RIGHT FRONT                 
QUAD/RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.  THE THERMAL GRADIENT            
IS STILL VERY STRONG WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE            
BOUNDARY +10-+11C...AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY -9C TO -10C  OVER NEAR             
KBUF. WE SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT BAND OF SHRAS MOVE THROUGH THE                  
CAPITAL REGION 20Z-22Z WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST                    
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
OVERNIGHT...EARLY ON THIS EVENING WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS            
OVER THE E/SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL ABOUT 00Z.  THE WINDS              
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLUSTERY FROM THE W/NW AT 15-25 MPH WITH PERHAPS            
A FEW GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH.  THE SFC LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY              
AS IT MOVES NE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THE LOW LEVEL               
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A            
995 HPA LOW EAST OF MAINE BY 12Z FRI WILL KEEP THE CHILLY NW FLOW IN            
PLACE.  THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE OF THE                     
MULTIBAND VARIETY...WITH A PREDOMINANT 310 DEGREE TRAJECTORY WITH               
MODERATE INSTABILITY.  THE BEST CHANCES OF SHSNS WERE PLACED OVER               
SRN HERKIMER...SCHOHARIE...WRN GREENE AND WRN ULSTER COUNTIES.  WE              
ARE EXPECTING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO.  THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME              
WESTERLY UPSLOPE SHSNS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND WRN ADIRONDACKS EARLY            
ON...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  WE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS THERE.             
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS H850 TEMPS TO FALL TO -10C TO              
-15C FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY 1200 UTC. WE WENT CLOSE              
TO THE COLD GFSMOS TEMPS.                                                       
FRIDAY...A BRISK AND COLD SHOPPING DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP.  THE                 
BUFKIT PROFILES FOR KSYR SHOW THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DROP TO 5 KFT             
AROUND NOONTIME...WHICH SHOULD SQUASH ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE BANDS                
IMPACTING OUR FCST AREA.  THE LOW  LEVEL FLOW ALSO TURNS                        
ANTICYCLONIC...AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE OH VALLEY BY THE             
AFTERNOON.  WE TAPERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES.  DOWNSLOPING               
OFF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS SHOULD YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND CAPITAL DISTRICT.   WE             
WENT A TAD COLDER THAN THE GFSMOS VALUES ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE FRIGID            
850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE -12C TO -15C RANGE WITH THE CORE OF                   
COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD.  WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE             
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES OVER               
THE REST OF THE REGION.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                              
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE AND RISING SURFACE                     
PRESSURES SHOULD PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF RESIDUAL PRECIP CHANCES AND            
LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS.  IN FACT...THIS COULD BE QUITE A CHILLY             
NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH                  
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE DECIDED TO GO AT OR JUST BELOW            
GUIDANCE WITH MAINLY TEENS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND SINGLE DIGITS            
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW -10C               
WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE NCEP MODEL SUITE CONSENSUS.                               
SATURDAY...                                                                     
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST SATURDAY                    
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A RATHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE WITHIN THE                 
WESTERLIES WILL IMPACT THE REGION IN THE FORM OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL             
MOISTURE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS REFLECT A RATHER HIGH                
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 600-875MBS.  THE EXCEPTION COULD BE OFF            
OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND TRAJECTORY ALONG WITH            
THIS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR                    
PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SUNSHINE WILL             
BECOME MORE FILTERED THROUGH THE DAY AND HOLD OFF THE INSOLATION                
WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE THE MIDDLE 30S.           
SATURDAY NIGHT...                                                               
THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING               
BEHIND A RATHER CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS             
SHOULD PROVIDE A TRANQUIL NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE            
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE            
FOR A LITTLE SNOW.                                                              
SUNDAY...                                                                       
OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA REMAINS RATHER CLOSE TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS            
AND INCREASING BAROCLINICITY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY LOW POPS            
AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...BASED ON FORECAST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS               
BETWEEN 850-900MB WE SHOULD TAP OUT INTO THE 40S FOR HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.  COULD SEE FAVORABLE               
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON            
AS WELL WITH STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW.                                 
SUNDAY NIGHT...                                                                 
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS WE MONITOR THE UPPER WAVE NOW             
CROSSING NEVADA BECOMING NEARLY CUT OFF BEFORE BECOMING ENTRAINED               
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH  OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE                 
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THIS LEAVES THE              
CWA WITHIN A NULL REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NULL PRECIP               
FORECAST.  SKY COVER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BUT WILL FAVOR A MOCLR TO              
PTCLDY FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT INTO THE MIDDLE 20S            
WITH PERHAPS WARMING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THOSE                 
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE ALONG WITH NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT THE               
MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE EJECTING SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER                  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS HEIGHTS                   
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS BAHAMAS/FL/SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH THE MJO               
ENTERING PHASE 8 AT THIS TIME...TELECONNECTION POINT TOWARD A MORE              
EASTERN CONUS RIDGING AND A WELL AGREED UPON HEIGHT RISE                        
ALONG THE MID AND SE COAST SHOULD HAVE THIS LOW TRACK ALONG OR WEST             
OF THE REGION.  THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE BUT IT                
SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING WITH A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE EXPECTED               
CYCLONE.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE COLD ADVECTION MAY NOT               
HAVE A HUGE IMPACT AS PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD INDICATE.  HAVE REFLECTED             
THIS IDEA IN THE LATEST FORECAST/GRIDS WITH A WARMER SIDE OF THE                
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.  NEXT                  
SYSTEM TO APPROACH AND IMPACT THE AREA ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK.                
CONSENSUS FAVORS A FURTHER WEST AND COINCIDING WARMER SOLUTION FOR              
THE REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. COLD               
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH                     
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO UPSTATE NY AND NEW                 
ENGLAND.  BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS              
DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED SHSNS AND FLURRIES AND THE APPROACH OF THE                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.                                                             
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL PRIOR TO 12Z FRI.  THE MVFR                    
CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO CIGS IN THE 2-3 KFT AGL RANGE FROM TIME TO            
TIME FROM KALB NORTH TO KGFL.  CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE BKN035-045                
BTWN 12Z AND 22Z FRI.  THE BIGGER TAF ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE             
STRONG W/NW WINDS.  THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE 8-16 KTS WITH GUSTS IN             
THE 25-30 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB THIS MORNING.  THE BRISK NW             
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFTER 12Z FRI WITH 10-15 KTS AND A FEW GUSTS                
CLOSER TO 25 KTS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO              
VALLEY FRIDAY PM WITH THE SKIES CLEARING...AND THE WINDS DIMINISHING            
TO 5-10 KTS TOWARDS 00Z SAT.                                                    
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SAT TO MON PM...VFR.                                                            
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN MOVING IN.                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.  THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY HAS                   
RECEIVED LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THE MOHAWK RIVER            
VALLEY NEAR UTICA HAS RISEN VERY LITTLE AND NO PROBLEMS ARE                     
EXPECTED.  FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...UP TO AN                
INCH OF RAINFALL FELL. ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN WILL BE WITH THE FRONTAL             
PASSAGE LATE THIS PM/EARLY THIS EVENING.  A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS              
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY THRU               
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE            
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE MON INTO TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS A MIX             
BAG OF PCPN CHANGING TO RAINFALL.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS                                                               
NEAR TERM...TAW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM...BGM                                                                 
AVIATION...TAW                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...TAW                                                                 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1237 PM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HAPPY THANKSGIVING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG            
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE LOW WILL                
MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW              
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE WEATHER WILL BE VERY               
MILD. HOWEVER ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...A SHARP COLD                 
FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE               
USHERED IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT              
HEADS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SATURDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AT 15 UTC THE 40KM RUC SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST SW OF KELM.  A               
WARM FRONT IS RAPIDLY LIFTING N/NE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.  THE                
LATEST TEMPERATURE FROM THE HUDSON AWOS IN COLUMBIA IS 60F ! HERE AT            
KALB WE ARE SITTING AT 38F ! THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR IS              
VERY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING. WE ANTICIPATE A BRIEF JUMP UP            
IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH            
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND                  
PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND.  WE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TEMP                  
TRENDS IN THE HOURLY TRENDS.  WE DID CURTAIL ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OFF              
THE PREV MAX TEMPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST...SINCE               
THE MINS AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR WAS NOT CAPTURED WELL BY            
THE PREVIOUS MOS GUIDANCE.  850 MB TEMPS ARE A PALTRY +9-+11C IN                
ADVANCE OF THE SFC WAVE.                                                        
WE DO NOT THINK THE MIXED PCPN WILL BE AN ISSUE OVER THE SRN                    
ADIRONDACKS THE REST OF TODAY.  TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 34-36F               
RANGE IN NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FROM SOME OF THE               
NERON OBS SITES /OLD FORGE...INDIAN LAKE...AND NORTH CREEK/.  A                 
FAIRLY SHARP TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR IN THE LATE PM/EARLY PM            
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WE WE STILL KEPT LOW LIKELY POPS AS             
FAR SOUTH AS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE                 
PLACED AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS PRIOR TO 23Z.             
WE KEPT AN INCH OR SO IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE BRISK W/NW FLOW IN THE              
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE            
ONGOING. THE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND LOW PASSAGE            
ARE QUITE SIGNIFICANT OVER OHIO WITH 3 HR CHANGES IN EXCESS OF 6                
HPA.  ANY UPSLOPE SHSNS AND FLURRIES OFF THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN            
GREENS WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE AROUND 06Z.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                  
RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKENS AS LOW MOVES              
FARTHER AWAY FROM REGION. UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST IN            
THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL                
RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS             
FRIDAY BUT CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE FLOW             
BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC. THE SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR             
SOUTH AND WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY.             
ALOFT MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER REGION. IT WILL BE COLD WITH                 
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S WITH 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH FRIDAY            
AND SATURDAY. LOWS N THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
SHORT WAVE ZIPS THROUGH FLAT TROUGH OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT              
AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED TO AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO              
SHOW SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST               
AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER              
THE SOUTH DEEP IN RESPONSE. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD                
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE                     
DETAILS...TIMING AND TRACK...ARE UNCERTAININ. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE            
SOLUTIONS MORE SIMILAR THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL VERY               
DIFFERENT. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THE MISSISSIPPI                  
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE GFS               
TRACK FARTHER TO EAST AND A BIT SLOWER. EITHER WAY THERE IS THE                 
THREAT FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN              
OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES                
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE OT HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE               
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW PRESSURE NEAR KBGM                
CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE AT 17 UTC ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WARM             
FRONT EAST OF THE LOW HAS MADE IT VERY CLOSE TO KALB.  HOWEVER...IT             
DOES LOOK LIKE LLWS AND LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE               
HOURS /AROUND 22Z/ UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  WE ARE                  
EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS ERN                
NY.  THE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR IN            
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.  THE WINDS WILL BE FROM              
THE W/NW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUST APPROACHING 25 KTS.  THE WINDS             
MAY RELAX A LITTLE AFTER 05Z.  AFTER 12Z FRI...SCT-BKN CIGS AT                  
AROUND 4 KFT WITH BRISK NW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS             
WILL PREVAIL.                                                                   
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON              
RIVER VALLEY.                                                                   
SAT...VFR.                                                                      
SUN-MON PM...VFR.                                                               
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR BECOMING IFR AS RAIN/SNOW/POSSIBLY FZRA MOVES IN.           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.  THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY HAS                   
RECEIVED LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THE MOHAWK RIVER            
VALLEY NEAR UTICA HAS RISEN VERY LITTLE AND NO PROBLEMS ARE                     
EXPECTED.  FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...UP TO AN                
INCH OF RAINFALL FELL. ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN WILL BE WITH THE FRONTAL             
PASSAGE LATE THIS PM/EARLY THIS EVENING.  A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS              
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY THRU               
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE            
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE MON INTO TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS A MIX             
BAG OF PCPN CHANGING TO RAINFALL.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...TAW                                                                 
AVIATION...TAW                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...TAW                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
100 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE MID WEST...NORTHERN             
NEW YORK AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.  SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MILD                   
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE            
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.  THEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO              
RIVER VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A              
SHARP COLD FRONT THROUGH THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON.  WINDY AND COLDER              
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THOSE COLDER TEMPERATURES            
HOLDING ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                                
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE AND PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPS               
HAVE RISEN NICELY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM THE CAPITAL              
REGION AND POINTS SOUTH.  CURRENT H2O VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS REVEALS A             
DIGGING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH             
A NEARLY 130KT UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                
THIS LEAVES AN ENTRANCE REGION/ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE MID                     
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  FURTHERMORE...WIND PROFILERS UPSTREAM                
ALSO SHOW A JET STREAK NEAR 100KTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL ONLY              
ENHANCE LIFT.  LATEST NCEP NUMERICAL SUITE ALONG WITH RUC ANALYSIS              
ARE QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC  ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.                
THIS SHOULD RESULT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP SOUTH OF THE                
CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT AND WILL TAYLOR POPS ACCORDINGLY.                        
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE                 
OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION.                 
SURFACE WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ON THANKSGIVING WITH              
IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CWA.  IF SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO PEAK             
OUT...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TAKE A RUN TOWARD 60F IN THE VALLEYS!              
IN FACT...WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT             
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.  SHARP COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE            
DROP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  BUFKIT PROFILES DO SUGGEST A LITTLE                
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT NOT ENOUGH SO TO MENTION THUNDER              
AT THIS TIME.  850MB TEMPS WILL TUMBLE FROM AROUND +10C DURING THE              
MORNING TO ALMOST -10C BY EVENING!  WILL NEED TO WATCH THOSE MIXING             
HEIGHTS AND WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MOHAWK VALLEY CHANNELING.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                            
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH FA IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW                
PRESSURE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG VORT AXIS. DESPITE LIMITED               
MOISTURE IN WAKE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL                
SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                    
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIMITED LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY               
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY CONFINE ACTIVITY TO              
MOHAWK VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH AXIS LIFTING NORTH INTO WESTERN                    
ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE AXIS SHIFTS               
NORTH OF FA AND WEAKENS AS SHEAR INCREASES AND INSTABILITY                      
DECREASES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT                
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE                   
QUITE WINDY AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FA              
IN WAKE OF EXITING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING              
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE RIDGE OF              
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER FA ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING                   
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA               
COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY TURN FLOW BACK INTO WESTERN                  
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN                
SOME MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY DRY                 
AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS AVERAGING ABOUT 5               
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY.                     
NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM               
OHIO VALLEY AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. AT THIS              
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR FA AND THE LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD               
APPEAR TO SPLIT THE FA BETWEEN MIXED PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS              
OF FA AND MORE LIKELY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS ALTHOUGH ANY                
ATTEMPT TO PINPOINT TRACK THIS FAR OUT IN THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY               
TIME FRAME IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY                
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE BIG CONCERN AT THIS POINT               
BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY                 
MIX OF PCPN INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT                 
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE FREEZING RAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO                
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.                                       
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN                   
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR                        
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA                 
HAS RESULTED IN IFR OR NEAR IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. TO THE NORTH                 
IT IS A COMBINATION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK ALONG WITH AREAS OF                   
RAIN WHILE TO THE SOUTH A LARGE AREA OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF                  
2 MILES OR LESS WAS OVER MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF                     
ALBANY ALONG WITH ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. WINDS AT                   
THE SURFACE WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ALOFT LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE                 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS SO WE HAVE INCLUDED                    
LLWS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY TAFS.                                                 
IFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE                  
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST AIR HANGS OVER THE REGION                
WITH ITS STRATUS AND FOG. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE MOST OF THE RAIN             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND ARE                
ONLY FORECASTING VCSH AT KPOU FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THE                    
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN INCREASES AS ONE GOES NORTH. HOWEVER THE RAIN                
IS NOT LIKELY TO LOWER THE CEILING OR VISIBILITY AND IN FACT MAY                
EVEN RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER                 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON                     
AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.                   
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS.                       
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE                  
TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS EXCEPT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY                     
WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE RESULTING IN MVFR                       
CEILINGS. AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR LAKE                  
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS IN THE                     
ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CATSKILLS                
TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH AREAS OF IFR                   
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND SOUTH.                                        
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CATSKILLS NORTH                 
TO ADIRONDACKS.                                                                 
SAT...VFR.                                                                      
SUN...VFR.                                                                      
MON...VFR BECOMING IFR AS RAIN/SNOW/POSSIBLY FZRA MOVES IN.                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT...WITH THE AREA OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEING              
MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...IS THE MOHAWK RIVER                
IN THE UTICA AREA. WATER IS BEING RELEASED FROM LAKE DELTA TO                   
PROVIDE SOME STORAGE AND THAT HAS RAISED THE RIVER LEVEL ABOUT                  
TWO FEET. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE THE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVIEST                
RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE IMPOUNDED IN LAKE DELTA...WITH LESS RAIN OVER               
THE ORISKANY AND SAUQUOIT BASINS WHICH ARE UNCONTROLLED. THE                    
BEAVER AND MOOSE RIVER BASINS ARE ALSO IN THE HEAVY RAIN AREA                   
BUT NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THERE. SOME RUNOFF MAY ALSO BE                     
EXPECTED OVER THE HEADWATERS OF THE HUDSON...SACANDAGA...AND                    
SCHROON RIVERS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...11                                                                 
LONG TERM...11                                                                  
AVIATION...RCK                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
735 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY                     
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHARP RIDGING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE PACIFIC                 
COAST DIVES UPSTREAM INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                   
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY SHARP PIECE OF                     
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH                
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. FLOW THEN                  
BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN                  
STATES TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BEFORE DIVING INTO YET                 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.                                 
AT THE SURFACE OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY              
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FLOW AROUND THIS            
HIGH CONTINUES TO DELIVER A SUPPLY OF DRY AND COOL AIR FROM THE                 
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO FILL WITH MORE AND                
MORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. LOW                
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER               
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN...THE INCREASING HIGH             
CLOUDS LATE WILL SLOW THE TEMPERATURE FALL...HOWEVER THINK THE                  
THICKER CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.                            
CERTAINLY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY             
ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS OR            
LATER. GUIDANCES HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF BRINGING THE BEST LIFT              
AND MOISTURE FURTHER WEST WITH TIME. WHAT DID LOOK LIKE A PRETTY                
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO IS NOW            
IN JEOPARDY. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A WARM EXTENDING INTO               
OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN                  
GOMEX IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY OVER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES AND                    
WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOW LOOKS TO RECEIVE               
MUCH MORE SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH QPF AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS            
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A SURFACE LOW EJECTS            
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI                  
VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IT WILL DRAG THE WARM FRONT TO              
OUR NORTH AND BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN FREE AND WARM                       
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO               
THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY              
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ANOTHER SHOT AT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM            
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOLID CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL LEGS THIS               
EVENING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. AS THE HIGH            
TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WILL EXPECT TO SEE WINDS                
COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNRISE TOMORROW BUT                
REMAIN AT OR CLOSE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS. FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER                 
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM              
CHANCES RETURNING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCAL AREA               
TERMINALS, WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS EDGING NWD AND EWD ACROSS               
THE AREA. MID CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT DURING            
THE MORNING SAT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY WITH                    
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE BY AFTERNOON FOR TLH, PFN, AND VLD, AND              
3-4 KFT AT DHN AND ABY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE                
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD HOLD OFF                
UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SAT NIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
THE RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL 35 PERCENT LEVEL SATURDAY                 
AFTERNOON AS LOW LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  38  66  52  74  59 /   0  20  60  40  30                           
PANAMA CITY  43  65  55  74  61 /   0  20  80  50  40                           
DOTHAN       36  59  49  68  57 /   0  20  80  60  50                           
ALBANY       36  60  46  68  57 /   0  20  60  60  40                           
VALDOSTA     39  64  49  73  58 /   0  20  40  40  30                           
CROSS CITY   41  71  53  77  59 /   0  20  30  20  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GMZ750...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ755...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ770...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ775...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...WOOL                                                                 
FIRE WX...WATSON                                                                
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
943 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE 12 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT ACROSS                 
CENTRAL FL...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF FOR SEVERAL                  
HUNDRED MILES. THE 12 UTC KTAE SOUNDING SHOWED AN UNUSUALLY                     
SHALLOW CP AIRMASS...WITH THE COLD AIR ONLY EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT               
THE 950 MB LEVEL (2K FT). EVEN WITH A LOT OF SUN WE WILL NOT BREAK              
THE STRONG CAP ABOVE THIS COLD LAYER...SO AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE               
COOL AND A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 50S                
TO MID 60S). VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PROFILERS SHOW A SHORT                 
WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND THERE                 
ARE SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES)          
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. ALL OF THE                  
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY                       
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST BLEND OF THE GFS MOS...WRF...AND RUC YIELD                
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE THINK TEMPERATURES                 
WILL BE A LITTLE COOL TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE              
A FEW POCKETS OF 1 TO 2 HOURS NEAR 35 PERCENT.                                  
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS               
MORNING...DESPITE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE DROPPED THE              
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS BUT KEPT IT UP FOR               
OUR OUTER WATERS FOR MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH                     
SOUTHEAST AND WILL EXIT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND BY               
15-16Z. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF MIDDLE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN                    
ALABAMA WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD                  
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING             
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF              
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. ON SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH              
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH THE POSSIBILITY                
OF SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.                                     
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GMZ750...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ755...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ770...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.                                                  
GMZ775...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...WATSON                                                               
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
715 PM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN UNUSUALLY DOMINANT               
LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CONUS. EMBEDDED WITHIN              
THE LARGER TROUGH WE WEE SEVERAL DISTINCT PIECES OF SHORTWAVE                   
ENERGY...INCLUDING ONE SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE UPPER                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTH THROUGH              
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH.              
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD            
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS NOW RUNNING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL GA INTO             
THE WESTERN BIG BEND AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A THIN BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IS SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS              
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CAN             
NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES UNTIL THE                
FRONT PASSES. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH HAS OCCURRED                  
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE                  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE WIND SHIFT DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WITHIN A               
FEW HOURS FROM THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE UPPER 40S.            
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY 40S LATER            
TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE TIGHT                
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL                 
CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING ALL THAT RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT.            
A COOLER BUT DRIER DAY FOR FRIDAY AS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE             
TO DELIVER A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.              
HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ABOUT              
THE MOST WE CAN EXPECT.                                                         
THEREAFTER THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN             
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT            
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL EXTEND EAST INTO THE                    
NORTHEAST GULF BY LATE SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY             
GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING OFF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES UNTIL SATURDAY              
EVENING OR NIGHT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH...GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL                  
SHOWING STRONG DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300-310K                    
SURFACES WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN                  
SPREADING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL EARLY            
FOR DETAILS...THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR WIDESPREAD                   
BENEFICIAL RAIN. AS IS THE CASE WHEN ANY WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT                
APPROACHES THE COAST...WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF A            
FEW STRONGER ROTATING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL                        
WATERS AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND THE LOW            
LEVEL SHEAR AROUND THE FRONT ARE CERTAINLY SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH...                
HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY (AT LEAST FOR NOW) LOOKS TO BE LACKING EVEN             
AT THE COAST. LATEST SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN VERY GOOD                     
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE 500 J/KG CAPE CONTOUR SOUTH OF THE COAST               
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT THE LATEST PROBABILITY OF THE            
500 J/KG CAPE CONTOUR EVEN REACHING THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE IS ONLY             
AROUND 10%. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT A FEW STRONGER ROTATING STORMS TO               
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE MARINE LEGS SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE THE                
CHANCES FOR BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM                 
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS THE              
LOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS TO MAKE SURE THE BEST INSTABILITY DOES NOT                
BEGIN TO EDGE FURTHER NORTH.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THIS EVENING AND              
WILL BE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS            
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH                
WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ENDING. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COME             
DOWN JUST A BIT ON THE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND              
THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT SO            
WILL NOT DROP THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE               
NORTHEAST DURING FRIDAY WITH CAUTION TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS               
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO               
EAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE ERN BIG BEND AND SCNTRL GA               
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL ALTERNATE               
FROM MVFR/IFR AT MOST TAF SITES UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN                 
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN TERMINALS AND THEN DURING THE              
PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS ERN TERMINALS. BY SUNRISE VFR CONDS ACROSS                 
ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WE MAY SEE ONE TO THREE HOUR DURATIONS OF LOW RH ACROSS PORTIONS OF             
NORTH FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT            
SEVERAL DAYS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  47  62  41  62  54 /   0   0   0  50  80                           
PANAMA CITY  45  64  46  66  58 /   0   0   0  60  80                           
DOTHAN       42  61  39  58  52 /   0   0   0  40  80                           
ALBANY       43  63  42  58  51 /   0   0   0  30  80                           
VALDOSTA     49  63  43  62  54 /  15   0   0  30  80                           
CROSS CITY   50  67  46  71  59 /  20   0   0  40  70                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GMZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BLOCK                                                                
FIRE WX...BARRY                                                                 
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
303 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING             
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT                 
INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE                  
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION BY LATE SATURDAY AND                 
SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER                  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO                 
THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED                 
OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH                
TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADAR                   
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD                 
FRONT...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE                 
FRONT.                                                                          
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT                     
APPROACHES AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AS IT APPEARS                      
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE                  
LIGHT...MAYBE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.                                         
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD CURRENTLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10              
MPH ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN               
THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...AND WINDS                  
SHOULD INCREASE TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. A LAKE WIND              
ADVISORY IS ALREADY POSTED AND THAT LOOKS GOOD.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF I-20              
BUT SHOULD BE GONE BY 03Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT                
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.                    
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE                     
WEEKEND AS A COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES                 
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.                                    
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION               
ON FRIDAY...BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE TIMING AND                  
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS RESULTING IN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AND              
THEREFORE SENSIBLE WEATHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.              
IT DOES APPEAR THAT WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE               
PLACE SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND DURING THE DAY                         
SUNDAY...BUT THAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOT CHANGED THE               
POPS MUCH DURING THIS PERIOD TO CONTINUE WITH SOME PERSISTENCE                  
UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE                   
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION IS SHOWING                
SIGNS THAT WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME WEDGING BY SUNDAY...AND HAVE                
LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
SLIGHT BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ON SYSTEM EXITS UP THE             
EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WILL HOLD             
ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF EXITING               
SYSTEM.  NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES TOWARDS            
THE STATE MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WOULD APPEAR TO BE LATE             
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY                   
MORNING...WITH DRYING EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KT AT THE SURFACE WITH CONTINUE                   
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SPREAD                  
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA 06Z-13Z EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO             
BE 4-6 KFT WITH VSBYS 7 MILES. MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE                   
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS 1-2 KFT. BOTH NAM AND RUC FORECAST RAOBS             
ARE SHOWING WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 35 KT NEAR THE 1.5 KFT LEVEL            
BY 03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 13Z WHEN SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO                
15-20 KT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR                  
SURFACE-1.5 KT 03Z-12Z. AFTER 13Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS             
NEAR 4 KFT AND VSBYS 7 MILES. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE              
AREA 18Z-24Z TIME FRAME. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS              
18Z-24Z BUT GENERALLY VFR. COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST AS HIGH             
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER AREA 00Z-06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS...SCATTERED               
CLOUDS 4-5 KFT AND VSBYS 7 MILES OR BETTER.                                     
VFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT                 
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-               
     016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                                       
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-               
     063>065-077.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HC                                                                   
NEAR TERM...HC                                                                  
SHORT TERM...HC                                                                 
LONG TERM...HC                                                                  
AVIATION...CL                                                                   
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1223 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO                
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING                
THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD              
OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT COOLER                   
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                 
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION BY               
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH                  
MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS                   
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GA EXTENDING INTO SE AL. FEW SHOWERS                
ALSO NOTED OVER PARTS OF THE SC UPSTATE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS. FEW              
CHANGES TO ZONES OTHER THAN WORDING CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION                    
TRENDS OVERNIGHT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS SOMETIME DURING                 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY (18Z-21Z)...FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVOCATION         
ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH                
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT A                 
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL                       
GENERALLY BE AROUND .25 INCH OR LESS. RAINFALL WILL END ACROSS THE              
REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING THE                   
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLER                    
DROPPING INTO THE 40S.                                                          
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                
AND A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG. HIGHS               
ON FRIDAY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS              
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN               
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED              
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A TROFF IN                
THE WEST IS TRYING TO MAKE A CHANGE AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROFF              
CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TRIES TO SWING EAST                  
ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THIS CHANGE WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE OFF                
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BRINGING                 
WITH IT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN. HOWEVER                 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONFLICTED IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN               
GEM MODEL DEVELOPS IT OVER EASTERN TEXAS MONDAY MORNING AND MOVES               
IT TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE ECMWF                   
DEVELOPING IT OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVING IT                
TO WESTERN NEW YORK BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GFS DEVELOPING IT NEAR              
NEW ORLEANS AND MOVING IT TO CENTRAL OHIO BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS              
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW THEN THEN THE GEM OR THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD              
GIVE THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL.                
THE FORECAST WAS BASED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO LEAN TOWARD THE              
GFS SOLUTION AND IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH                 
UNCERTAINTY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KT AT THE SURFACE WITH CONTINUE                   
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SPREAD                  
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA 06Z-13Z EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO             
BE 4-6 KFT WITH VSBYS 7 MILES. MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE                   
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS 1-2 KFT. BOTH NAM AND RUC FORECAST RAOBS             
ARE SHOWING WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 35 KT NEAR THE 1.5 KFT LEVEL            
BY 03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 13Z WHEN SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO                
15-20 KT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR                  
SURFACE-1.5 KT 03Z-12Z. AFTER 13Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS             
NEAR 4 KFT AND VSBYS 7 MILES. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE              
AREA 18Z-24Z TIME FRAME. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS              
18Z-24Z BUT GENERALLY VFR. COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST AS HIGH             
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER AREA 00Z-06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS...SCATTERED               
CLOUDS 4-5 KFT AND VSBYS 7 MILES OR BETTER.                                     
VFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT                 
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST                
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-                 
     041.                                                                       
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST                
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
334 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 302 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                               
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS...WITH THE MIDWEST               
STILL IN NRLY FLOW BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM. SOME LLVL CLOUDS KEEPING              
THE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH                  
AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLEAR OUT ARE DROPPING TO THE LOWER                
20S THIS MORNING. LLVL CLOUDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ON                  
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS RELATIVELY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE                   
SHORT AND MID TERM WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE SHOWING UP EARLY IN                 
THE WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SW. MAIN              
DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT IS WITH THE TRACK. ALL MODELS HAVE SPED                
UP THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS BEYOND DAY 4 AS IT EXITS THE                      
REGION...BUT THE ARRIVAL TIME HAS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY. AT ANY                 
RATE...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND...WEIGHTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF.            
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...                                              
BECOMING MORE SUNNY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE LOW CLOUDS                    
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE A BIT OF AN ISSUE FOR                 
THE FORECAST AS CLOUDS WILL BE COMING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY             
ENDING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING CLOSER TO DAWN.                  
HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO MOS...BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER FOR UNCERTAINTY                
IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE. TOMORROW...SOUTHERLY WINDS EDGE UP THE                   
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM THE DAY BEFORE...BUT CLOUDS KEEP THE                 
MORNING RATHER COOL BEFORE NOON.                                                
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
ANOTHER TROF DIGS OUT OVER THE DESERT SW AND MOVES INTO THE SRN                 
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. COLD AND DRY CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND         
UNTIL THE WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS...MAKING ITS WAY TO                 
THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. PRECIP RETURNING TO THE                   
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE SFC LOW SLIDING BY              
LATE MONDAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE A                
DIFFERENCE IN TRACK...WITH THE CAN/GLOB NOW THE SRN OUTLIER                     
(PREVIOUSLY MORE MIDDLE)...AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINING ITS FURTHER                
TO THE NORTH TRACK...THOUGH SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF LAST 00Z RUN. THE                 
GFS AND THE NAM ARE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER...AND NOT               
FAR OFF FROM THE ECMWF. MODELS TRENDING TOGETHER GIVES A BIT MORE               
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FORECAST THAN THE LAST...AND BEST CHANCES FOR              
PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESP MONDAY. TUESDAY SEES A SLOW RETURN TO               
DRIER CONDITIONS.                                                               
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1144 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007...FOR THE 06Z TAFS                           
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO OUR EASTERN                
CWA...VERY CLOSE TO THE RUC FORECAST LOW LEVEL RH. A BAND OF 035                
TO 040 CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                 
CWA THROUGH MORNING. WILL TRY TO TEMPO AROUND THE CLEARING                      
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY CREEP TOWARD PIA AND SPI.                            
DEC...BMI...AND CMI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS              
OF CLEARING THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AND I TRIED TO PORTRAY THAT IN              
THE TIMING OF CLEARING CLOUDS.                                                  
CU RULE PLOTS SHOW CLEAR SKIES OR SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS OUR CWA               
TOMORROW. WILL NOT PUT ANY TEMPO BKN DECKS AS A RESULT.                         
NO MAJOR ISSUES FOR LOW VIS OR CIGS FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS                
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS WELL.                                                      
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1145 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 848 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                               
LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THE REST OF THE                      
NIGHT...BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATIONS. A STRONG H5 VORT              
MAX WILL AFFECT OUR CWA...AS THE AXIS OF THE H5 TROUGH PASSES                   
ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. THE DPVA WILL NOT BE AS               
EFFECTIVE AT GENERATING LIFT AS IT COULD BE...BECAUSE IT IS MORE                
CHANNELED THAN PRE TROUGH DPVA. THEREFORE...I ADJUSTED THE WEATHER              
GRIDS TO INCLUDE FLURRIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT.                                
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK...AS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED              
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN                
OUR NE CWA...AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE RUC RH                  
FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S IN A FEW              
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. THIS WAS ALREADY HANDLED WELL                
IN THE LOW TEMP GRID.                                                           
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS DOING WELL. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND                  
ZONES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.                                                    
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1144 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007...FOR THE 06Z TAFS                           
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO OUR EASTERN                
CWA...VERY CLOSE TO THE RUC FORECAST LOW LEVEL RH. A BAND OF 035                
TO 040 CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                 
CWA THROUGH MORNING. WILL TRY TO TEMPO AROUND THE CLEARING                      
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY CREEP TOWARD PIA AND SPI.                            
DEC...BMI...AND CMI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS              
OF CLEARING THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AND I TRIED TO PORTRAY THAT IN              
THE TIMING OF CLEARING CLOUDS.                                                  
CU RULE PLOTS SHOW CLEAR SKIES OR SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS OUR CWA               
TOMORROW. WILL NOT PUT ANY TEMPO BKN DECKS AS A RESULT.                         
NO MAJOR ISSUES FOR LOW VIS OR CIGS FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS                
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS WELL.                                                      
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 305 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                               
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                    
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WITH COOL/DRY                     
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WE                 
WILL BE IN THE BASE OF A RATHER FLAT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SET               
UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NORTH AMERICA... WHICH WILL                  
RESULT IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW... KEEPING THE COLDEST AIRMASS WELL TO               
OUR NORTH.                                                                      
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW TO HANDLE OVERNIGHT SKY                
CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPERATURES. BROAD VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER                  
IOWA WILL SLOWLY LUMBER ITS WAY ACROSS ILLINOIS THROUGH LATE                    
TONIGHT... BRINGING CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION ALOFT AND CYCLONIC                 
FLOW. THIS WOULD SUPPORT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING THROUGH THE                     
OVERNIGHT HOURS... HOWEVER THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS                  
PLENTY OF HOLES IN THE OVERCAST LAYER... ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARROW               
TONGUE OF DRY AIR EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO THE EASTERN               
HALF OF OUR CWA... WHERE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MORE CELLULAR AND                  
DIURNAL IN NATURE. HOWEVER... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS               
BACK ACROSS IOWA... AND THIS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER EVEN AFTER DARK.              
MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST SOME SCATTERING OUT WITHIN THE DRY TONGUE               
ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING... BUT THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTING                
FARTHER WEST. LATEST RUC IS VERY QUICK TO EXPAND CLEARING ACROSS                
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT... BUT PREFERENCE HERE IS FOR THE MORE                  
PESSIMISTIC 18Z NAM... WHICH SUGGESTS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING                     
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TOWARDS MORNING... AS THE                      
SHEARED-OUT VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL              
/925-850MB/ WINDS STILL EXHIBIT A MORE OF A NNW DIRECTION THROUGH               
12Z. USUALLY LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO REALLY                 
BRING IN THE CLEARING.                                                          
OVERALL... THE SKY GRIDS KEEP THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR               
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE                
SOME SCATTERING OUT. KEPT THINGS MORE OR LESS CLOUDY THROUGH 09Z                
OR SO IN THE WEST... WITH SOME SCATTERING OUT IN THE FAR NW                     
BETWEEN 09-12Z.                                                                 
COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE WEST THIS              
EVENING AS THE WEAK VORT MAX SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALREADY                    
SEEING THIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. LATEST              
RUC DOES INDICATE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THIS                   
AREA... SHIFTING SE AFTER 00Z. BUT GIVEN THE FAIRLY WEAK FORCING                
AND LACK OF MOISTURE... WILL FORGO ADDING POPS AND KEEP THE                     
MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.                                        
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES FRI-SAT... MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS THE                 
COMPACT UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS NEVADA CURRENTLY... WHICH                
IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE EJECTING                 
EASTWARD... AFFECTING OUR WX IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.                         
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
LONGER RANGE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF               
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. 12Z ECMWF                 
HAS TRENDED SLOWER... CLOSER TO THE GFS... WHICH HAS MAINTAINED                 
IMPRESSIVE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONSIDERING RECENT PERFORMANCE.               
STILL THINK THE GFS MAY BE A HAIR TOO QUICK IN KICKING OUT THE                  
CLOSED LOW... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODEL TENDENCY TO DIG THE LOW                
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. CONSIDERING                   
THIS... KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY                        
TIME FRAME... WITH A PRETTY SHARP NW-SE GRADIENT. LATEST GFS DOES               
BRING QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER               
DRY THE FARTHER NORTHWEST ONE GOES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.                        
BEST PRECIP CHANCES/QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE                   
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY... WHEN LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST                
WEAKLY COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.                              
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE AT THIS POINT STILL LOOKS TO BE RAIN. ASSUMING              
THE CLOSED LOW AND THE NORTHERN STREAM KICKER TROUGH REMAIN                     
UN-PHASED... THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COME TOO LATE AND WILL               
HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... AND THE COLD                 
AIR WILL FILTER IN AFTER PRECIP HAS CEASED.                                     
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
555 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 305 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                               
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                    
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WITH COOL/DRY                     
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WE                 
WILL BE IN THE BASE OF A RATHER FLAT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SET               
UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NORTH AMERICA... WHICH WILL                  
RESULT IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW... KEEPING THE COLDEST AIRMASS WELL TO               
OUR NORTH.                                                                      
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW TO HANDLE OVERNIGHT SKY                
CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPERATURES. BROAD VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER                  
IOWA WILL SLOWLY LUMBER ITS WAY ACROSS ILLINOIS THROUGH LATE                    
TONIGHT... BRINGING CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION ALOFT AND CYCLONIC                 
FLOW. THIS WOULD SUPPORT CLOUD COVER CONTINUING THROUGH THE                     
OVERNIGHT HOURS... HOWEVER THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS                  
PLENTY OF HOLES IN THE OVERCAST LAYER... ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARROW               
TONGUE OF DRY AIR EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO THE EASTERN               
HALF OF OUR CWA... WHERE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MORE CELLULAR AND                  
DIURNAL IN NATURE. HOWEVER... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS               
BACK ACROSS IOWA... AND THIS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER EVEN AFTER DARK.              
MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST SOME SCATTERING OUT WITHIN THE DRY TONGUE               
ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING... BUT THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTING                
FARTHER WEST. LATEST RUC IS VERY QUICK TO EXPAND CLEARING ACROSS                
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT... BUT PREFERENCE HERE IS FOR THE MORE                  
PESSIMISTIC 18Z NAM... WHICH SUGGESTS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING                     
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TOWARDS MORNING... AS THE                      
SHEARED-OUT VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL              
/925-850MB/ WINDS STILL EXHIBIT A MORE OF A NNW DIRECTION THROUGH               
12Z. USUALLY LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO REALLY                 
BRING IN THE CLEARING.                                                          
OVERALL... THE SKY GRIDS KEEP THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR               
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE                
SOME SCATTERING OUT. KEPT THINGS MORE OR LESS CLOUDY THROUGH 09Z                
OR SO IN THE WEST... WITH SOME SCATTERING OUT IN THE FAR NW                     
BETWEEN 09-12Z.                                                                 
COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE WEST THIS              
EVENING AS THE WEAK VORT MAX SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALREADY                    
SEEING THIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. LATEST              
RUC DOES INDICATE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THIS                   
AREA... SHIFTING SE AFTER 00Z. BUT GIVEN THE FAIRLY WEAK FORCING                
AND LACK OF MOISTURE... WILL FORGO ADDING POPS AND KEEP THE                     
MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.                                        
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES FRI-SAT... MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS THE                 
COMPACT UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS NEVADA CURRENTLY... WHICH                
IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE EJECTING                 
EASTWARD... AFFECTING OUR WX IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.                         
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
LONGER RANGE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF               
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. 12Z ECMWF                 
HAS TRENDED SLOWER... CLOSER TO THE GFS... WHICH HAS MAINTAINED                 
IMPRESSIVE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONSIDERING RECENT PERFORMANCE.               
STILL THINK THE GFS MAY BE A HAIR TOO QUICK IN KICKING OUT THE                  
CLOSED LOW... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODEL TENDENCY TO DIG THE LOW                
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. CONSIDERING                   
THIS... KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY                        
TIME FRAME... WITH A PRETTY SHARP NW-SE GRADIENT. LATEST GFS DOES               
BRING QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER               
DRY THE FARTHER NORTHWEST ONE GOES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.                        
BEST PRECIP CHANCES/QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE                   
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY... WHEN LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST                
WEAKLY COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.                              
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE AT THIS POINT STILL LOOKS TO BE RAIN. ASSUMING              
THE CLOSED LOW AND THE NORTHERN STREAM KICKER TROUGH REMAIN                     
UN-PHASED... THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COME TOO LATE AND WILL               
HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... AND THE COLD                 
AIR WILL FILTER IN AFTER PRECIP HAS CEASED.                                     
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 555 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007...FOR THE 00Z TAFS                            
STRATO CUMULUS WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING SPOTS THIS EVENING. MAKES                
FOR TOUGH TAF WRITING...AS THE SITES COULD GO FROM BKN035 TO SKC                
IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RUC RH FIELDS STILL SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD               
HANDLE ON THE RIBBONS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SLOTS AS SEEN ON SATELLITE.               
THE CURRENT THIN SPOT IN THE CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM PIA TO BMI TO                  
CMI. THE NEXT AREA OF CLEARING NORTH OF THAT IS IN SOUTHEAST                    
WISCONSIN. THE RUC FORECAST SHOWS THAT AREA OF CLEARING DROPPING                
SOUTH INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. WILL NOT TRY TO                
GET TOO CUTE WITH CLEARING TRENDS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS               
FOR PREVAILING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING...THEN BRING                  
SOME CLEARING SPOTS.                                                            
TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NO CEILINGS EXPECTED. RH                 
DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY...EVEN IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.                            
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
225 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
330 AM CST                                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS TODAY WILL CENTER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR EXTREME                
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.                                       
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH AIDED IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE              
FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING IS TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AT                
THIS TIME...HOWEVER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING STILL LINGERS BACK TO THE             
WEST WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH            
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW                    
CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE INTO WESTERN               
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO             
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY FAVOR LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA BY MID MORNING. WSR-88D HAS BEEN            
INDICATING SOME WEAKENING TRENDS IN RATHER BROAD DIFFUSE AREA OF                
PRECIP COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A            
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVING TRACKED EAST OF THE AREA.               
HOWEVER...ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN STARTING TO SEE PERHAPS MORE             
ORGANIZED SINGLE BAND DEVELOPING ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS. LOW                 
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS               
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH SHORT TERM RUC/WRF PROGS                      
INDICATING LAKE/850 HPA DELTA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 18 DEG               
CELS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. MODIFIED SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FORECAST                
SOUNDINGS FOR THESE WARMER LAKE TEMPS STILL SUGGESTING LAKE INDUCED             
CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG BY MID MORNING WITH EQUIL LEVELS RISING TO             
12-13K FT. RATHER IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT THE            
SAME FACTORS LEADING TO THESE IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS WILL POSE SOME              
QUESTION AS TO PRECIP TYPE GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST FLOW OFF THE             
LAKE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS AT LEAST INITIALLY THIS MORNING NEAR             
THE LAKESHORE. SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR SINGLE BANDED TYPE EVENT BY MID             
TO LATE MORNING...WHEN LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE                     
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS BAND ACROSS WESTERN LAKE COUNTY                              
INDIANA...SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
AT THIS TIME AM NOT PLANNING MANY CHANGES TO GOING LAKE EFFECT                  
HEADLINES. FAR EASTERN COOK AND WILL COUNTIES WILL HAVE A SHORT                 
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMS AS MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE             
RATES ARRIVE RIGHT AS WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. THUS...WILL DROP              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST COOK/EASTERN WILL                   
COUNTIES. WILL RANGE ACCUMS FROM AROUND AN INCH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST            
COOK/FAR EASTERN WILL COUNTY...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS LAKE CO IND              
AND PORTER COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO                 
EXPECTED SINGLE BANDED CONVECTIVE NATURE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALSO             
POSSIBLE TODAY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE ACROSS NORTHERN JASPER/NEWTON               
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD             
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM SHORT              
WAVES APPROACHING FROM IA/NRN MO WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. HIGHS            
IN THE MID 30S ALSO SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH              
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM MORNING READINGS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.                    
BY THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK NORTHWEST                 
WHICH SHOULD TAKE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT EAST OF PORTER COUNTY...SO            
02Z ENDING TIME TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT AS IS.            
LAST IN THE SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH            
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TREND            
OVERNIGHT AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING                
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUITE COLD TEMPS TONIGHT...FROM UPPER TEENS              
ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST              
INDIANA WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFIED FROM TODAY`S FLOW OFF THE               
LAKE. ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER                
VALLEY AND LACK OF ANY SIG THERMAL ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER             
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...ALTHOUGH WILL FINALLY             
GET INTO SOME SUNSHINE.                                                         
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM                   
SOUTHERN CANADA. UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTORS SUPPORT STRONGER UPPER                   
FORCING REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MAY HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES              
OR FLURRIES AS WEAK ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE               
REGION SATURDAY...BUT WILL KEEP DRY AT THIS TIME AND JUST NUDGE UP              
CLOUDS A BIT. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO DELAY            
TIMING OF NEXT PRECIP CHANCE...AS CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST              
US SHOULD GET REINGESTED IN THE WESTERLIES. NEW 00Z DATA WOULD                  
SUGGEST CHANCE OF -RA ON MONDAY...BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN                 
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW              
FOR THIS PERIOD.                                                                
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE                
TROUGH LIES FROM BENTON HARBOR MICHIGAN TO ROCKFALLS ILLINOIS AT                
1700 UTC. THIS IS WHERE A BAND OF SNOW IS OCCURRING. THERE WAS LIFR             
VISIBILITY AT MIDWAY FOR A SHORT TIME. THE LAKE HAS SOME INFLUENCE              
FOR THIS SNOW. THE SNOW WILL AFFECT MDW AND GYY.  THE TROUGH WILL               
MOVE SOUTH AND THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT            
A BROKEN CEILING OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.             
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED. AS A HIGH MOVES INTO THE            
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE               
WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NEW YORK               
TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS            
EXPECTED TO DECREASE. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SNOW             
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER AIR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT             
LAKES. THE WAVES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTH PORTION OF LAKE             
MICHIGAN WILL HAVE HIGHER WAVES THAN THE NORTH BECAUSE OF THE FETCH             
OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASE                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE HIGH AND A LOW OVER               
HUDSON BAY WILL GIVE A 25 TO 30 KNOTS SOUTHWEST WIND SATURDAY.  BY              
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT A LOW WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO WHILE A LOW DEVELOPS             
IN ARKANSAS. THIS LOW IN ARKANSAS WILL MOVE INTO LAKE ONTARIO BY                
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE                                                                       
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.             
     SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY                
     MORNING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1114 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 859 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007                                               
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF SNOW SET UP PRIMARILY ACROSS IOWA.                      
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS NOT AFFECTED OUR CWA TOO MUCH YET. A CALL TO              
THE KNOX COUNTY SHERIFF INDICATED LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION THERE                
TO THIS POINT. THERE WERE A FEW ACCIDENTS ON THE ROADS...SO SOME                
ICING MAY BE OCCURRING. THE CHANGE OF RAIN TO SNOW HAS BEEN                     
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.                            
THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...WITH THE                
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN               
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON. GALESBURG AND LACON                 
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A HALF INCH OF SNOW...WHILE PEORIA                
MOST LIKELY WILL SEE A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS. LITTLE                    
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO                     
WHATEVER STICKS ON THE GROUND UNTIL THEN WILL BE ALL FOR                        
MEASURABLE SNOW.                                                                
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO OHIO THE REST OF               
THE NIGHT...A REGION OF LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF OUR CWA.              
WE MAY SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM                 
EAST OF I-55. DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE SE OF I-55 UNTIL                 
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROGRESSES ACROSS THAT AREA AND PROVIDES                 
SOME ICE CRYSTALS FROM ABOVE TO DROP INTO THE LOW MOISTURE LAYER.               
THAT WILL HELP PRODUCE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...INSTEAD OF DRIZZLE.               
BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MAKING IT               
FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA ARE              
STILL IN THE 30S...SO OUR FORECAST LOWS OF LOW TO MID 30S LOOK                  
GOOD. SOME UPPER 20S MIGHT OCCUR IN KNOX COUNTY IF ANY CLEAR SPOTS              
DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.                                             
OVERALL...THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE TO THE WEATHER AND                 
POPS. THE REST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED INFORMATION ALREADY AVAILABLE.           
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1115 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007...FOR THE 06Z TAFS                           
THE DEFORMATION SNOW/RAIN BAND HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS OUR                 
CWA...WITH THE MAIN PRECIP NOW NORTH OF OUR CWA. A SMALL LINGERING              
BAND OR RAIN OVER OUR CWA IS ABOUT TO DEPART DEC AND AFFECT                     
CMI...OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS QUIETED DOWN AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.                 
THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE INDIANA...OHIO BORDER...AND               
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON ANY ADDITIONAL              
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE WILL MOST              
LIKELY BE ALL THAT REMAINS AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                            
LIFR LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY LIFTED UP TO IFR LEVELS FOR ALL                    
SITES EXCEPT CMI. CMI SHOULD CLIMB UP THERE SOON AS WELL. BY                    
MORNING...CIGS MAY LIFT TO MVFR OR VFR IN SPOTS. WILL TEMPO IN                  
SOME VFR CIGS FOR PIA AND SPI AT LEAST.                                         
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 MPH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER                
3 TO 4 HOURS. BY MORNING...GUSTS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED.                        
NO MAJOR VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST.                      
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 301 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007                                               
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                        
SHARP BUT WAVY COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH PARIS AND                     
EFFINGHAM...BUT IS NOT BREAKING ANY SPEED RECORDS. ONE WAVE ALONG               
THE FRONT IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF EFFINGHAM...WHILE ANOTHER ONE             
IS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST OF SALEM. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT               
CLEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 7PM THIS EVENING AS THE            
SALEM WAVE RIPPLES NORTHEASTWARD INTO INDIANA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN             
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-BASED               
LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO AT LWV AND STRONGER FURTHER SOUTHWEST.               
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AND COME INTO              
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO              
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE            
IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                                                    
MEANWHILE TO THE NORTHWEST...RAIN IS IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING TO A            
MIXTURE OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST            
COUNTIES UP AROUND GALESBURG. QUINCY/BURLINGTON/MACOMB ARE ALL                  
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW NOW. WITH THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT              
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN VERY SLOW. AS THE                 
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES INTO INDIANA...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK                
AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD START                     
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC40 MODEL              
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF A COUPLE HOURS DURING                    
TRANSITION TIME THAT A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER 2K-8K FT WILL BE BOUNCING              
RIGHT ALONG THE FREEZING LINE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF                 
LIGHT SLEET DURING PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGE. TEMPERATURES AT                  
GROUND LEVEL SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY                 
GETTING DOWN TO 32F AT GALESBURG BY MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD              
BE ENTIRELY SNOW UP THERE BY THEN. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...                
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET DOWN TO              
FREEZING...AND THUS MITIGATING THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/ICING.              
THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD ONLY PROGRESS TO THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR            
BY SUNRISE. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS             
SOUTH OF A TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE. EVERYONE NORTH OF THERE SHOULD            
BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 0.5-1.0 INCH FROM                  
MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON AND NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL                     
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL BE SWEEPING FROM EASTERN IOWA THROUGH                
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.                                                              
AFTER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT MAINLY              
DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIAL                  
STRONG NORTH WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WILL DECREASE AS THE              
SURFACE LOW DEPARTS THE MIDWEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BY            
MIDDAY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE TOO MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE ON              
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.                    
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON                 
SLOWING DOWN THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN EJECTING TOWARD ILLINOIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE              
UPPER LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH TEXAS AREA BY              
LATE SUNDAY...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z                   
MONDAY. THUS THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE                  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ALL             
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN ALL OF              
THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. IT COULD BE CLOSE IN THE                
NORTHWEST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RISK                 
APPEARS TOO SLIM TO MENTION THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.                                
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
115 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN FOCUS ON TIMING OF DEFORMATION ZONE COINCIDENT WITH INCREASED              
UVM SUFFICIENT FOR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW/TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS LWRG IN             
SN/BR AS IT SLIDES EWD THIS AM. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD BEAT ON                  
FEATURE AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY...AIR TEMP AT KIWX 35.2 DEGREES ATTM               
WITH SNOW JUST TO NORTH OF OFFICE. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK                    
SLIGHTLY AT KFWA NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS CHANGE TO SNOW CLOSE AT HAND.             
OTHER FACTOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT KSBN                
WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL. INITIALLY FETCH NRLY AND SINGLE             
BAND SHOULD SET UP WEST OF AIRFIELD...HOWEVER AS NIGHT PROGRESSES               
AND WINDS BACK FURTHER...BAND TO SHIFT/PERHAPS TRANSITION INTO                  
MULTIBANDED EVENT AS WELL AND LIKELY BRING LOWERING CONDITIONS                  
TOWARD END OF FCST PERIOD.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RAIN BEGINNING TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF CWA. THIS                
IS A LITTLE LATER THAN EARLIER FCSTS. THUS, HAVE UPDATED FCSTS TO               
LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT OVERNIGHT. CONTD WITH LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WATCH FOR THURSDAY AS APPEARS AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH                  
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW FOR A SINGLE BAND TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE                 
AREA SOUTH OF LM MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WIND FLOW GRDLY BACKING                   
CAUSING BANDS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND SW MI IN                 
THE AFTN.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM EST WED NOV 21 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
FCST GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK AS CONTD CAA SHOULD CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE               
OVER TO SNOW FM NW-SE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. UPDATED                   
ZONES JUST TO FRESHEN WORDING.                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EST WED NOV 21 2007/                          
MARINE...                                                                       
LOW OVER SWRN INDIANA DEEPENING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN INDICATED                 
BY RECENT MODEL RUNS. AS LOW MOVES NE THIS EVE...ISALLOBARIC                    
GRADIENT SHOULD ENHANCE WINDS OVER SRN LM. SUSTAINED WINDS                      
APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS INTO THE U30S AT 23Z. EXPECT                  
THIS TO CONT OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH 06Z THAN GRDLY DIMINISH               
LATE TONIGHT. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE NSH WATERS               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM EST WED NOV 21 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.                                    
A LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH CENTRAL                  
INDIANA AND ON DOWN TO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST COAST            
STATES TONIGHT AND FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW. ALSO TOMORROW             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE WEST AND AN UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE NORTH. THE UPPER                  
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...POSSIBLY ALTERING THE            
PATH OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE            
ADVANCES EVEN CLOSER. AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS BEEN ADVANCING             
EASTWARD TODAY...AREAS BEHIND IT HAVE SEEN DROPPING TEMPERATURES.               
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA HAS ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH                
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE LOWER 40S. AS MORE AND MORE OF THE COLDER AIR            
PUSHES INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS WILL SEE THE             
RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. DURING            
THIS CHANGE OVER THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF TIME OF SLEET...BUT IF               
SLEET DOES OCCUR...IT IS EXPECTED TO NOT LAST LONG. MODEL SOUNDINGS             
AND THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THAT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW            
AT SBN ROUGHLY AROUND 03-04Z AT SBN...07-08Z AT FWA...AND 08-10Z AT             
AOH. ABOUT ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA             
TONIGHT. BUT THERE IS ONE UNKNOWN ITEM WITH THE SNOW                            
ACCUMULATING...AND THAT IS THE WARM GROUND. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE            
GROUND IS STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND ALSO WITH THE GROUND SATURATED              
FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL...HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE SNOW TO BEGIN             
STICKING IS IN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT IS GOING TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT TONIGHT RESULTING IN A STRONG              
WIND OUT OF THE NORTH. THEN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS              
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS LEAVING THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART. WITH THE WIND OUT OF DUE              
NORTH TO START OUT TOMORROW MORNING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS                   
EXPECTED TO HIT DUE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN FIRST. BUT THEN AS THE               
WIND TURNS A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TOMORROW THROUGH                   
TOMORROW NIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE                  
SOUTHEASTERLY FROM THE LAKE. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LAKE EFFECT             
AREAS TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH LAKE MICHIGAN STILL BEING              
SO WARM WITH SUCH COLD AIR MOVING OVER IT...BUT LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE            
THE PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH THE WARM/WET GROUND IS GOING TO PLAY INTO               
THE SITUATION. SO THE LAKE EFFECT WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS A WATCH FOR             
NOW INSTEAD OF UPGRADING TO AN ADVISORY WITH THIS WARM GROUND GIVING            
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL. WITH THE OVERCAST SKIES TOMORROW AND               
THE SNOWFALL...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH                  
TOMORROW.                                                                       
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                           
FRI-SUN...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH                 
MODELS AGREEING ON A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A SFC HIGH TRANSLATING              
FROM THE OH VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE THU              
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH HEIGHT RISES AND 1000-700MB WINDS                   
BACKING TO THE WSW BY FRI AFTN. A NRN STREAM SHRTWV WILL TRACK THRU             
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATE SAT. EXPECT THIS SHRTWV TO               
COME THRU DRY AS BEST DYNAMICS STAY WELL NORTH. SUN WILL LIKELY                 
FEATURE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE WELL                      
ADVERTISED SRN STREAM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER              
MS VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL            
TEMPS BY SUNDAY.                                                                
MON-WED...MAIN CONCERN IS THE TRACK/STRENGTH/TIMING OF SRN STREAM               
UPPER LOW FCST TO IMPACT THE OH VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE SRN GREAT               
LAKES SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. THIS HINGES ON THE DEPTH AND                    
STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY PROGGED TO PROGRESS INTO THE              
NORTHWEST CONUS AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A POLAR VORTEX IN CENTRAL              
CANADA. EXPECT JUST RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO              
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WARMER THERMAL FIELDS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO                  
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE                     
TRACK/STRENGTH. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGER...FASTER...AND                   
FARTHER NW SOLUTION...PRODUCING DEFORMATION ZONE RAINS SUN NIGHT                
INTO MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE                    
OPERATIONAL GFS...MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...GEFS...AND CANADIAN               
WHICH HINT AT THE BEST CHC OF RAIN BEING DURING THE DAY ON MON. AS A            
RESULT...HAVE LOW CHC POPS ON MONDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS POSSIBLY            
NEEDING TO ADD POPS TO MONDAY EVENING. FOR TUE-WED...THINK THE 12Z              
ECMWF/GFS IS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH VORT LOBE UNDERCUTTING STRONG                   
UPPER-LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA...RESULTING IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT                 
LAKES BEING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS. PREFER                 
FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF ARCTIC AIRMASS SO WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO             
AND HPC GUIDANCE ON DAYS 6/7.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 6 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY             
     EVENING FOR INZ012.                                                        
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY                   
     THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ003-004.                                     
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY               
     MORNING FOR MIZ077.                                                        
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY              
     MORNING FOR MIZ078.                                                        
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR            
     LMZ043-046.                                                                
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOTHAMER                                                           
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL                                                          
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
MARINE...TAYLOR                                                                 
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
255 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER WILL BE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND             
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A SIGNIFICANT STORM                  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PART OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO              
MONDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM HERALDS THE START OF AN UNSETTLED WEATHER             
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...                                             
RUC HAS A MESOSCALE BAND OF FORCING REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD            
THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SAID FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FLURRIES              
AND -SN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME FLURRIES OR              
-SN INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING                
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING                
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME FLURRIES TO DEVELOP. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO             
SLOWLY CLEAR IN THE WEST 03Z-06Z WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS               
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z. TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH              
OR ACHIEVE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE DEEPER SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PART             
OF THE CWFA. QUIET WX FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS             
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5-7 DEGREES WARMER.   ...08...                 
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                  
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...SEASONABLY COLD WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM            
MONDAY AND AGAIN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  PREFER ECMWF AS MORE STABLE AND        
ACCURATE RUN-TO-RUN.                                                            
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER WITH SLOWLY MODERATING              
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH         
CLOUDS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF WESTERN US          
TROUGH DIGGING INTO TEXAS.  KEPT MIN TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH POTENTIAL         
FOR MIN TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW OR MORE...ESPECIALLY NW 1/3 WITH SNOW            
COVER IF CLOUDS CLEAR.                                                          
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOLUTIONS CONVERGING TO SOUTHERN            
PLAINS LOW TO LIFT NE OVER AT LEAST SE 1/2 AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHOT OF           
CANADIAN AIRMASS.  LARGE SCALE FORCING SUPPORTS UPPING POPS TO SLIGHT           
CHANCE NW AND CHANCE SE SECTIONS.  PREFER ECMWF THERMAL FIELDS WHICH            
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR GOOD EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO ALLOW FOR RAIN             
AND SNOW MIXTURE.  TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24                 
HOURS.  HAVE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE             
SEASONABLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS IN CASE ENOUGH COOLING POTENTIAL           
TO PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATIONS AS SFC LOW LIFTS NE AND COLDER AIR ALSO           
MOVES IN.  NOTABLE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER PAST THREE RUNS WITH LOWER            
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS.  TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH MIN/MAX TEMPS A                   
CATEGORY TOO LOW/HIGH IF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COME IN AS                    
SUGGESTED.                                                                      
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING MORE COLDER             
AIR IN WITH THERMAL FIELDS FROM ECMWF AND A LESSER EXTENT GFS/GEFS              
SUGGESTING MIN TEMPS NEED LOWERING AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 5 DEGREES              
AND MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF             
MORE SNOWFALL OCCURS.                                                           
DAYS 8-15.../NOV 29-DEC 7/...ALL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE EXTREMELY ACTIVE            
PATTERN WITH FAVORABLE REGIME FOR MAJOR STORMS PASS NEAR TO OVER                
UPPER MIDWEST WITH INTERVALS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR TO IMPACT AREA.                 
MODERATE TO STRONG SYSTEM SUPPORTED CIRCA NOV 29 WITH RISK OF                   
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...SOME TECHNIQUES              
SUGGEST TO BE STRONG TO EXTREMELY STRONG CIRCA DEC 1-3 PERIOD WITH              
LOTS OF SNOW AND/OR RAIN. APPEARS REGION TO REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE FOR              
INCREASINGLY COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS WELL INTO THE FIRST WEEK              
OF DECEMBER.  ..NICHOLS..                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
850-500MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL F VECTOR CONVERGENCE            
HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT BAND OF -SN/--SN AROUND THE KBRL AREA.             
18Z RUC SHOWS THIS FEATURE PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THUS              
WILL KEEP 2-3KFT CIGS GOING WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO 6SM OR BETTER               
STARTING AT 22Z. LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ALL OTHER              
TAF SITES TO STAY P6SM WITH CIGS JUST ABOVE 3KFT WITH SCATTERED                 
--SN. OTHER TAF SITES TO BREAK UP CLOUDS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z.   ...08...            
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/NICHOLS                                                                      
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
1106 AM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PERSISTENT BAND OF -SN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD IS ASSOCIATED WITH                
NICE 1000-850MB F VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS.               
15Z RUC SHOWS THIS FEATURE PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY             
ALONG HIGHWAY 30. WITH SEVERAL OB SITES REPORTING 3-5SM...HAVE                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION LIGHT SNOW.        ...08...                     
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/                                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AND CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS                  
MORNING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FOR             
TODAY.  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS...AND THIS             
WILL WORK TOWARDS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS YESTERDAY               
WERE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM MEMPHIS MO...TO                  
DAVENPORT...TO JO DAVIESS COUNTY ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY AXIS OF                  
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...3 TO 4.5 INCHES...IS FELL FROM NEAR BELLE PLAINE             
IOWA...THROUGH LINN...DELAWARE AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES. THIS WILL                  
ALMOST CERTAINLY LAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITHOUT MELTING...AND               
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AS A VORT                  
CENTER ROTATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS              
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL. TEMPERATURES             
SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 30S VERY SLOWLY TODAY...BUT OVER THE SNOW                
COVER...THEY MAY HOLD BETWEEN 30 AND 32 TODAY. TONIGHT...SKIES                  
SHOULD BECOME CLEAR...OR AT LEAST BECOME SCATTERED...AND WITH LIGHT             
WINDS...WE SHOULD GET VERY COLD.  MID TO UPPER TEENS SHOULD BE FOUND            
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE NEAR 20 IS LIKELY. OVER THE                  
REMAINING SNOWPACK...LOWS COULD REALLY TUMBLE DOWN.  FOR NOW...WILL             
GO WITH 10 TO 15 IN THESE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. ...ERVIN...                       
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                        
TEMPERATURES MAIN FOCUS EARLY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION                
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH DROPS SE OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS                   
PASSING TO SOUTH ON FRI WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED MIXING AND COLD             
START WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO MID 30S OVER REMNANTS OF CURRENT SNOW/WET             
GROUND OVER EAST CENTRAL IA WITH SW CWA POSSIBLY REACHING 40 WITH               
HELP OF LIGHT SW WINDS BY AFTERNOON. FRI NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD            
WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORTWAVE             
THAT PUSHES THROUGH SAT. FORCING AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH SAT                 
AFTERNOON MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLURRIES AND BROUGHT INTO                    
FORECAST KEEPING POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL            
CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO LATE NOV                 
CLIMO AVERAGES IN 40S.                                                          
BEYOND...MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON PATH OF H5 LOW THAT WILL BE OVER TX            
SUN NIGHT THAT EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO OPEN WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTEST SOLUTION WITH MOST NORTHERN                       
PATH...WITH UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW INTO LOWER MI MON                        
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST SE               
HALF CWA. GFS AND UKMET...NOT NEARLY AS PROGRESSIVE AND TAKE MORE               
SOUTHERLY ROUTE WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL HANDLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER              
HANDLE AND AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. EXTENDED MODELS DEPICT ACTIVE             
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ..SHEETS..                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500FT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT ALL TAF            
SITES...BUT FROM TIME TO TIME...THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A VFR MID                 
CLOUD DECK AROUND 8000FT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES              
ALL DAY...THOUGH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 PM.             
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LIGHT WINDS.                      
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ERVIN/SHEETS                                                                    
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
735 PM MST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE                 
AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF IT. VISIBILITIES REMAIN IN THE ONE                
TO FOUR MILE RANGE. HAVE STARTED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY ALONG AND               
BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD AND AS THE NIGHT GOES ON I EXPECT TO                   
CONTINUE CANCELLING IT BEFORE THE 12Z EXPIRATION CURRENTLY IN                   
EFFECT.                                                                         
CALLS TO ALL OF THE LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES AT 23Z SUGGEST                     
SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM A HALF INCH TO INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH TO                
ONE TO TWO INCHES ALONG INTERSTATE 70 TO ONE TO FOUR INCHES (FOUR               
IN HITCHCOCK COUNTY) IN NEBRASKA. CO-OP REPORTS WILL GIVE A BIT                 
MORE DETAIL AS FAR AS AMOUNTS IN THE MORNING.                                   
ADJUSTED TEMP/DP GRIDS WHICH GENERALLY SHOW HIGHER NUMBERS THAN                 
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SREF/NAM/RUC                      
FORECASTS AND MATCHES WELL TO CURRENT REAL DATA.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 00Z TAFS...PERIODS OF -SN TO SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE                   
EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AT THE TWO                  
TERMINALS AFTER 05Z...SLOWER TO END AT MCK. IFR CIGS AND VIS                    
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE A SLOW MIX OUT IN CIGS                     
STARTING AT 14/15 UTC. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD BECOME MVFR TO VFR                   
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ003-004-014>016-028-          
     029.                                                                       
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/05                                                                          
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
318 AM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE NOT NEEDED TO                
MAKE MANY CHANGES. 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MID LEVEL              
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTH             
THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE. A                  
COUPLE OTHER SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER THE WEST IN THE BROAD                   
CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A SECOND              
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC OBS AT 08Z SHOW RIDGE            
CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KS AND THE HIGH PLAINS.                                 
MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE              
00Z GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE CANADIAN...              
UKMET AND ECMWF. THESE MODELS HANDEL THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING             
DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SIMILARLY...AND EJECT IT OUT ACROSS THE              
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK WAA AND                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE GFS ALSO SHOWS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE                  
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. WHILE                   
MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT...MODELS DO SATURATE            
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE EXPECTED                          
FORCING...TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THERE            
IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE FORCING WILL FALL APART AS THE SHORTWAVE               
MOVES EAST AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ABSORBS THE SHORTWAVE. IN             
ANY CASE GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL            
TO BE LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.                                     
OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE               
SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEB WILL LIKELY BRING               
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO NORTHER KS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE EVEN            
SOME RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP ON KLBF WITHIN THE SC OVER WESTERN                
NEB. 06Z NAM AND RUC SHOW THIS CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES               
INTO NORTHEAST KS...BUT THE SC COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INTO THE            
CNK AREA. THIS COULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER               
THAN THEY WOULD OTHERWISE BE. THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART THERE                
SHOULD BE SOME DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO OFF             
SET THE WEAKENING CAA. THEREFORE HAVE TEMPS FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS             
NORTH CENTRAL KS WERE THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER...TO AROUND 40            
OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD PLUNGE INTO THE                
TEENS AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES BY CAUSING LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEAR                 
SKIES.                                                                          
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY. THERE IS              
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM EJECTING OUT FROM OLD MEXICO ON               
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH WHILE THE               
ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.                     
&&                                                                              
WOLTERS                                                                         
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW CLOUDS...1500-2000 FT...WRAPPING SOUTHEAST OVER FAR EASTERN                 
NEBRASKA AND A PERSISTENT BAND OF 3000=5000FT CLOUDS OVER                       
WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TRYING TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF NORTHCENTRAL                 
KANSAS AT 08Z. LATEST RUC/NAM12 SOUNDINGS/PLAN VIEW SHOWING INCREASE            
IN H925-H850MB RH 12Z-18Z THEN DECREASING IN AFTERNOON. AT THIS                 
POINT WILL ADD AT LEAST SOME SCT 2500-3000FT CLOUDS TO GOING TAFS               
AROUND 15-16Z WITH INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12KT                    
RANGE. EXPECTING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AFT 00Z WITH WINDS BECOMING              
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
PF                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
814 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH              
TONIGHT...DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS AND VEERING THE SURFACE WINDS             
TO SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...CLOUD COVER WILL                   
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW              
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK              
FOR THIS EVENING...SO WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON            
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.                                                           
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/                                                
THE COMBINATION OF A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE AND A STREAM OF                   
MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH           
IT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MANY INSTANCES OF SNOW FLURRIES. SOME OF             
THE FLURRIES GOT A LITTLE STRONGER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALSO            
DEVELOPED. AS THE SUN SETS TODAY AND THE WINDS START SHIFTING MORE TO           
THE NORTH...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GO AWAY. WITH THE WINDS SHIFT...DRIER             
AIR WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRIER          
AIR AND CLEARING SKIES...WILL COMBINE TO PUT A BIT OF FROST ON THE              
PUMPKIN TONIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS                     
REBOUNDING TO NEAR 50. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE STEADILY INCREASING                 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SOME CIRRUS AND HIGH CLOUDS START MOVING INTO             
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. MADE ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE                
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM MID SHIFT. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MOS BLEND.           
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/                                            
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM AIR            
ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST            
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE                   
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GENERALLY LIKE THE GFS/ECMWF            
SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER            
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF WILL DIG INTO THE           
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS           
OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM              
FRONT...WILL MOVE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH              
WESTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE WARM FRONT REACHING THE           
OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE                
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT           
INTO MONDAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL             
SHEAR...COULD LEAD TO A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR            
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...HOWEVER              
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE SEVERE WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR AND                
STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS A 70KT H8 JET MOVING                
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE            
WRF IS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE JET...BUT STILL SHOWS 60 KT. WENT               
CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND           
DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORM DO NOT                  
DEVELOP...THINK ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME                
GUSTY WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN INVERSION IN PLACE MAY             
HELP TO LIMIT MIXING OF WINDS INITIALLY...BUT LATER MONDAY MORNING              
THE LOWER LEVELS WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR NON CONVECTIVE MIXING AS              
WELL...WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO             
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW            
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT               
THROUGH THE AREA.                                                               
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES            
BY MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND H5 VORT MAX             
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. H8           
TEMPS REACH 0 TO -1 DEG C MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THICKNESS REMAIN               
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO KEPT PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HIGH                
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES           
AND DRY WEATHER. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST              
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER           
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE             
FRONT...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN AND A LACK OF                
MOISTURE...WILL NOT INCLUDE A POSSIBILITY OF ANY UPSLOPE SNOW                   
FLURRIES ATTM. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM IN THE              
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE INITIALLY IN               
SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS               
DIFFER. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MUCH LESS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER               
RUNS...AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE ECMWF TRENDED WEAKER ON               
ITS LATEST RUN...BUT STILL ALLOWS FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY.             
PREFER TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A           
H5 TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. COLDER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING             
NORTH OF THE REGION BEFORE ANY MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THIS                      
SYSTEM. UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ON SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GOOD COLD AIR              
ADVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND EXPECT CLEAR CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT.          
HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING MORE DOMINANT AND ALSO SLIDING FARTHER                
EAST. RUC SHOWS THAT 850 MB FLOW WILL BE DIRECTLY DOWNSLOPE OFF OF              
THE APPALACHIANS BY 09Z. A 700 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER SAT                  
AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE ELSE.                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JJ/SCHOETTMER                                                      
LONG TERM....WJM                                                                
AVIATION...GV                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
714 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/                                  
THE COMBINATION OF A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE AND A STREAM OF                   
MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH           
IT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MANY INSTANCES OF SNOW FLURRIES. SOME OF             
THE FLURRIES GOT A LITTLE STRONGER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALSO            
DEVELOPED. AS THE SUN SETS TODAY AND THE WINDS START SHIFTING MORE TO           
THE NORTH...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GO AWAY. WITH THE WINDS SHIFT...DRIER             
AIR WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRIER          
AIR AND CLEARING SKIES...WILL COMBINE TO PUT A BIT OF FROST ON THE              
PUMPKIN TONIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS                     
REBOUNDING TO NEAR 50. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE STEADILY INCREASING                 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SOME CIRRUS AND HIGH CLOUDS START MOVING INTO             
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. MADE ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE                
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM MID SHIFT. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MOS BLEND.           
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/                                            
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM AIR            
ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST            
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE                   
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GENERALLY LIKE THE GFS/ECMWF            
SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER            
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF WILL DIG INTO THE           
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS           
OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM              
FRONT...WILL MOVE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH              
WESTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE WARM FRONT REACHING THE           
OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE                
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT           
INTO MONDAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL             
SHEAR...COULD LEAD TO A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR            
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...HOWEVER              
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE SEVERE WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR AND                
STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS A 70KT H8 JET MOVING                
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE            
WRF IS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE JET...BUT STILL SHOWS 60 KT. WENT               
CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND           
DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORM DO NOT                  
DEVELOP...THINK ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME                
GUSTY WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN INVERSION IN PLACE MAY             
HELP TO LIMIT MIXING OF WINDS INITIALLY...BUT LATER MONDAY MORNING              
THE LOWER LEVELS WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR NON CONVECTIVE MIXING AS              
WELL...WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO             
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW            
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT               
THROUGH THE AREA.                                                               
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES            
BY MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND H5 VORT MAX             
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. H8           
TEMPS REACH 0 TO -1 DEG C MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THICKNESS REMAIN               
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO KEPT PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HIGH                
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES           
AND DRY WEATHER. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST              
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER           
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE             
FRONT...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN AND A LACK OF                
MOISTURE...WILL NOT INCLUDE A POSSIBILITY OF ANY UPSLOPE SNOW                   
FLURRIES ATTM. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM IN THE              
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE INITIALLY IN               
SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS               
DIFFER. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MUCH LESS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER               
RUNS...AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE ECMWF TRENDED WEAKER ON               
ITS LATEST RUN...BUT STILL ALLOWS FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY.             
PREFER TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A           
H5 TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. COLDER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING             
NORTH OF THE REGION BEFORE ANY MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THIS                      
SYSTEM. UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ON SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GOOD COLD AIR              
ADVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED                                              
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND EXPECT CLEAR CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT.          
HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING MORE DOMINANT AND ALSO SLIDING FARTHER                
EAST. RUC SHOWS THAT 850 MB FLOW WILL BE DIRECTLY DOWNSLOPE OFF OF              
THE APPALACHIANS BY 09Z. A 700 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER SAT                  
AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE ELSE.                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JJ                                                                 
LONG TERM....WJM                                                                
AVIATION...GV                                                                   
FIRE WEATHER...JJ                                                               
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1025 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE -SN AND POTENTIAL LES OVER THE KEWEENAW.                 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NW MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF             
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER NE MN INTO FAR NW WI WITH LOWEST VSBYS              
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE. S TO SW SFC WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS                
MOST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH NE MN. WITH                 
ADDITIONAL PRES FALLS EXPECTED N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD DAYBREAK               
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRES MOVING SE FROM MANITOBA...AND DEVELOPING              
LAND BREEZES...MAIN CONVERGENT ZONE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS                   
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE INTO SAT MORNING. SO...POPS WERE             
LOWERED OVER THE NRN KEWEENAW. OTHERWISE...280K-285 ISENTROPIC                  
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO UPPER              
MI. HOWEVER...WITH A SIGNIFICANT 850-700 DRY LAYER...PER 03Z KSAW               
TAMDAR SOUNDING...ONLY WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE                           
AVAILABLE...MAINLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO                      
ACCUMULATION.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
MAIN FCST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND LES.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST             
OF NAMERICA WITH THE DOWNSTREAM TROF DOMINATING MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN               
NAMERICA. IN THE NW FLOW...ONE SHORTWAVE IS OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH A             
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING TOWARD NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAA               
REGIME IN RESPONSE TO THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A BAND OF               
MID CLOUDS AND STRATOCU INTO UPPER MI TODAY. SOME FLURRIES HAVE ALSO            
OCCURRED OVER THE WRN FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW              
THAT HAS DEVELOPED HAS SHIFTED WHAT IS LEFT OF LES COMPLETELY                   
OFFSHORE OF UPPER MI. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A DOMINANT BAND                 
CLOSE TO THE N SHORE OF MN EXTENDING NE TO JUST N OF ISLE ROYALE. IT            
APPEARS MUCH OF THAT BAND HAS BROKEN UP. IT`S DIFFICULT TO TELL WHAT            
IS HAPPENING NOW AS HIGHER CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING LAKE EFFECT...BUT               
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT LES IS OCCURRING BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND                
ISLE ROYALE.                                                                    
WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING NO HIGHER THAN -9C TONIGHT...LES WILL                   
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY...AND ONGOING SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR               
THE POTENTIAL OF LONG FETCH SW-NE ORIENTED LES BANDS OVER WRN LAKE              
SUPERIOR. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NRN ONTARIO HEADS ESE...SFC TROF                    
NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR NW MN WILL SLIP OVER LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE...PROMOTING THE             
DEVELOPMENT OF A DOMINANT BAND ALONG THE TROF. ALL THE MODELS                   
SUGGEST THIS...BUT THE RUC13 AND LOCALLY RUN HIGH RES WRF-ARW ARE               
MUCH MORE WELL-DEFINED WITH THE BAND. SO THE QUESTION IS...WILL THE             
WINDS BECOME WRLY ENOUGH TO PUSH THIS BAND TO THE KEWEENAW.                     
CURRENTLY...PRES RISES BEHIND THE SFC TROF ARE WEAKENING TO THE                 
POINT THAT THERE ARE ALMOST NO RISES NOTED IN THE LAST 3HRS...AND               
PRES FALLS ARE ALREADY INCREASING AND SPREADING S INTO SCNTRL CANADA            
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING S IN NRN CANADA. THUS...IT             
WOULD APPEAR THE TROF/WIND SHIFT WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS             
ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP CHC                
POPS N OF HOUGHTON OVERNIGHT AND JUST BRUSH THE SHORE OF KEWEENAW               
COUNTY WITH LIKELY POPS AND ABOUT 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION. EVENING               
SHIFT WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO SHIFT HIGHER POPS OFFSHORE OF THE                
KEWEENAW IF UPSTREAM PRES FALLS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BEHIND TROF.            
AS FOR LES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...SW FLOW WILL HAVE ENOUGH WRLY                   
COMPONENT TO KEEP ANY LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN E OF THE FCST AREA. AWAY            
FROM THE POSSIBLE LES OVER THE KEWEENAW...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF               
SLIGHT CHC -SHSN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS SFC OBS/RADAR                
INDICATE SOME -SN/FLURRIES IN THE VCNTY OF SFC TROF.                            
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING TOWARD SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL REACH            
NRN ONTARIO SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE LITTLE FOR            
MOST OF SAT. SO...THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW REMAINS THE ONLY LOCATION             
FOR ANY LES CONCERNS. SINCE THERE IS A HINT THAT THE 850MB WINDS                
TAKE ON A MORE WRLY DIRECTION SAT AFTN...THE POTENTIAL FOR LES ON               
THE KEWEENAW SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY. IF LES DOES NOT REACH               
THAT AREA TONIGHT...IT SHOULD SAT AFTN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT            
SNOW AMOUNTS CONSERVATIVE WITH JUST 1 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES NORTH OF                
HOUGHTON.                                                                       
LONGER TERM...00Z SUN ONWARD...                                                 
NAM SHOWING 500 MB FLOW GETTING ZONAL ON SUN AFTER TROUGH AXIS                  
PASSES THROUGH EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH TROUGHING FOR MON. THERE IS A               
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ON THE I280K-I295K SURFACES ON THE NAM                
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SAT NIGHT THAT SHIFTS TO              
THE NORTH ON SUN. GFS SHOWS THIS AS WELL ON I280K-I300K SURFACES                
ALONG WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR                    
CONVERGENCE WHICH REMAINS ON SUN ACROSS THE CWA. WITH WEST WINDS ON             
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...THE KEWEENAW COULD SEE SOME DECENT              
SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM SETTING UP TO HELP THE             
SNOWFALL RATES ALONG. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR KCMX AND KP59 SHOW INVERSION            
HEIGHTS ABOUT 5000 FEET THEN AND THIS FALLS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN             
MORNING. PROBLEM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IS THERE IS WARMING            
AT 850 MB FROM -8C TO -10C TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z SUN AND THEN 850 MB             
TEMPERATURES WARM MORE AFTER THAT AND THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY BY               
18Z SUN. LAKE EFFECT COMBINED WITH THE NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IN             
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL GIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SAT            
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE            
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN CWA AT THAT TIME AND THIS WILL STILL NEED              
TO BE WATCHED AS THIS COULD BE ADVISORY AMOUNT SNOW OR JUST BELOW               
ADVISORY DEPENDING ON HOW AND WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND SETS UP            
AND IF IT MOVES BACK AND FORTH AT ALL. THIS IS THE ONLY SPOT THAT               
WOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THE LAKE EFFECT COMBINED WITH THE               
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE. WILL GO UNDERNEATH ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR              
NOW AS GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST LEVELS AGAIN HAVE AN INVERTED-V            
SOUNDING LOOK TO THEM WITH SOME DRY AIR AND THIS SHOULD CUT INTO                
AMOUNTS A BIT. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING             
FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO LIKELY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH THE               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AND THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AROUND. FOR                     
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES OR VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE            
GOING FORECAST.                                                                 
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW THE 500              
MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
00Z TUE WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AFFECTING THE AREA 00Z WED. ANOTHER              
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 00Z THU AND FOR 00Z FRI WITH RIDGING FOR 00Z                
SAT. WE END UP GETTING TWO STORMS WITH THE FIRST ON MON AND THE NEXT            
ON WED AND THU. THE ONE FOR WED AND THU COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW             
PRODUCER BEHIND IT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG NORTH TO                    
NORTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE WITH ITS TRACK ANYWAY.             
WENT CLOSE TO 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES             
LOOK TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED STARTING ON WED AND               
WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE                
MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES LATE IN THE NIGHT AND SAT MORNING...BUT NO              
VIS RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL              
WHILE AWAITING THE EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVER WRN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. IT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL VEER WRLY            
ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING TO BRING WHAT COULD BE A FAIRLY              
SIGNIFICANT DOMINANT SNOW BAND ONSHORE AS FAR S AS KCMX. WITH LOW               
CONFIDENCE...TENTATIVELY INCLUDED MVFR VIS IN -SHSN MID MORNING SAT             
BASED ON SUGGESTION FROM SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION FORECAST                 
MODELS THAT WINDS WILL VEER ENOUGH TO THE W. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN            
VFR OR DROP TO IFR DEPENDING ON VERY SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND                     
DIRECTION. WHETHER OR NOT SNOW DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME              
RATHER GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FCST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL OF GALES SAT/SAT                
NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF FCST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THINKING OF THE               
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WSW GALES WILL IN FACT OCCUR SAT                       
AFTN/EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF                 
DROPPING SE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE THUS ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR            
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SAT AFTN/NIGHT. BEFORE THE GALES               
BEGIN...STIFF SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING             
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS PROBABLY BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE.            
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES...THIS TIME N TO NW GALES...MAY OCCUR LATE               
WED AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING 1 PM SAT TO MIDNIGHT EST SAT NIGHT LSZ263-264.                    
 GALE WARNING 4 PM SAT TO 3 AM EST SUN LSZ265>267.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON/TAG                                                          
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
948 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) EXPERIENCED A LULL IN THE LATE                 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SINCE THEN...A DOMINANT BAND HAS TRIED TO              
REORGANIZE...FROM CROSS VILLAGE TO BOIS BLANC ISLAND...AND IS VERY              
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS IS NORTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW              
FELL DURING THE DAY. THIS BAND IS NOT YET ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS            
SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A            
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT HAS DEVELOPED                
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT...WITH MAINLY SOUTH WINDS OVER NORTHERN                
LOWER MI...AND WSW WINDS ON BEAVER ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN LK HURON             
BUOY.                                                                           
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE CONVERGENCE               
ZONE CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AHEAD OF             
THE MAIN COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. IF IT                  
CAN...1000-850MB CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN...AND SO SHOULD THE LES            
BAND. MIXED SIGNAL FROM THE SHORT-TERM MODELS. THE RUC STRENGTHENS              
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH TIME...BUT MAINLY BECAUSE ITS SURFACE                
WIND FIELDS ARE TOO WEAK IN THE HERE AND NOW (ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE              
MI). THE NAM IS INCLINED TO WEAKEN CONVERGENCE WITH TIME...BUT IT IS            
ALSO STRUGGLING WITH THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...WHICH ARE NOT BACKED             
ENOUGH OVER LAND.                                                               
AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY                  
BACKED OVER LAND AREAS THRU THE NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF MAIN LES                      
AREAS...CLOUD COVER IS PATCHY/THIN AND HAS HELPED IN KEEPING THE LOW            
LEVEL WINDS FROM FULLY COUPLING. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND...LES                
BAND SHOULD STRENGTHEN...THOUGH IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A               
BIT AS 1000-850MB WINDS SHIFT (SLIGHT BACKING THIS EVENING...SLIGHT             
VEERING OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST IF THE NAM IS TO BE BELIEVED).                     
OVERALL...HAVE DIMINISHED THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EMMET                 
COUNTY A BUT...WITH AROUND 4 INCHES OR SO IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE              
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWNSTREAM...IN FAR NORTHERN                
CHEBOYGAN COUNTY...AND OUT TOWARD DE TOUR/DRUMMOND. THESE CHANGES               
WILL PROMPT AN LES ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN CO...WHICH WILL              
RUN THRU 7 PM SATURDAY.                                                         
SPEAKING OF WHICH...WILL BUMP UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT FOR SATURDAY.               
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE (AT LEAST INITIALLY). BUT AS             
THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AT MIDDAY (STILL COINCIDENT WITH DELTA               
T/S AROUND 17C)...BANDED LES OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY                
STRONG TO LOWER SURFACE TEMPS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING.                          
ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...HAVE ALREADY LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT IN               
SOME SPOTS (LIKE GRAYLING). HOWEVER...WITH WINDS INCREASING WITH                
TIME...SUSPECT MOST PLACES ARE NEAR (OR HAVE ALREADY SEEN) THEIR                
LOWS FOR THE NIGHT.                                                             
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 625 PM FRI NOV 23...                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN WANING IN THE PLN AREA LATE TODAY. THIS               
RELATIVE LULL SHOULD CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE EVENING. AN UPTICK IS            
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE (8-10K CLOUD DECK OVER               
NORTHERN WI) MOVES OVERHEAD. THE PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL HELP                  
RETURN OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TO PLN LATE TONIGHT...WITH WEAKER              
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF TVC...AND LITTLE AT APN.                        
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY...AS             
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE                   
REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SW...RESULTING IN PREVAILING LIFR                
CONDITIONS AT PLN IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW...IFR AT TIMES AT                 
TVC...AND LOW-END MVFR LATE IN THE DAY AT APN.                                  
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 404 PM FRI NOV 23...                              
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LAKE                  
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND AMOUNTS...AND WHAT/IF ANY HEADLINES MAY            
BE NEEDED. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN            
ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISS             
VALLEY UP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE                
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY                  
DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL LOW LEVEL FLOW               
REGIME HAS BEEN IN TRANSIT THROUGH THE DAY...STARTING                           
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ENDING UP MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS OF 19Z...WITH A            
CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE WSW                  
FAVORED LOCATIONS. DESPITE RATHER SCANT 900-700MB MOISTURE                      
INITIALLY...LATEST RUC/SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPTICK IN                    
BOUNDARY LAYER RH GIVEN INCREASINGLY LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE                     
MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE BEEN RATHER                     
IMPRESSIVE IN A FEW SPOTS...NAMELY OWING TO PRONOUNCED STUBBORN LOW             
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SNUCK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH              
THE DAY. BIGGEST WINNERS SO FAR - CHARLEVOIX AND EMMET                          
COUNTIES...WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF 3 TO AS MUCH AS LOCALLY 5 INCHES            
HAVE BEEN NOTED...VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH LATEST KAPX RADAR STORM                
TOTAL SNOW GRAPHICS.                                                            
FOR TONIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN PROGGED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE AS                  
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT AHEAD OF                   
APPROACHING LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH. PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO            
WORK WITH (OBVIOUSLY GIVEN ONGOING SNOWS)...WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED              
TO "WARM" JUST SLIGHTLY TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z TOMORROW. 900-700MB RH            
ALSO QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR LES...WITH VALUES ON THE RISE TO 80 PERCENT            
OR BETTER OVERNIGHT PER CONTINUED LONG FETCH UP LAKE MICHIGAN.                  
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY REASON WHY SNOWS WON/T CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH              
OF THE NIGHT AS WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDS STATUS QUO...AND                      
INCREASING GRADIENT ACTS TO PREVENT ANY LAND BREEZES THAT COULD                 
POTENTIALLY TRY TO SHOVE ANY SNOW BANDS FARTHER OFFSHORE. USING THE             
15Z SREF POP MEAN AS GUIDANCE...WILL HANG THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS               
EMMET AND SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTIES (I.E. W/SW FLOW AREAS)...AND               
WILL RUN WITH A WARNING ACROSS EMMET (GIVEN ALREADY SNOWY CONDITIONS            
THIS AFTERNOON) AND AN ADVISORY FOR MACKINAC (WITH A HIGHER CRITERIA            
FOR WARNING).                                                                   
HEADING INTO TOMORROW...UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE                 
REGION BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z...WITH AXIS OF DECENT 700-500MB -DIVQ AND            
MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE (1000-500MB RH INCREASES TO BETTER                
THAN 90 PERCENT) ANNOUNCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT              
TO THE EVENT. CONTINUED WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOULD             
EASILY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION...HOWEVER            
WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME POSSIBLE PTYPE ISSUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE             
COAST GIVEN LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WITH FORECAST RAOBS                   
INDICATING FREEZING LEVELS ABOUT 1500 FT AGL. SOME QUESTION WHETHER             
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MELTING...AND PROBABLY DEPENDENT ON                 
INTENSITY OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL HOLD PRECIP ALL            
SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC             
SUPPORT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST              
TO EAST AS -DIVQ AXIS ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT                   
DOUBTFUL OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION GIVEN EXPECTED HIGHS IN             
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND              
OVERALL WEAK FORCING.                                                           
ON THE MARINE SIDE...INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES                
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY                  
TOMORROW MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE            
INSTABILITY-MIXED LAYER RUNNING ABOUT 35-40 KNOTS. COUPLED WITH                 
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD EASILY SEE GUSTS IN THE GALE RANGE...WITH            
GALE CONDITIONS SPREADING TO OTHER NEARSHORE AREAS BY EARLY                     
AFTERNOON AS CORE OF STRONGER 900-850MB WINDS SPREADS EAST.                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED             
TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF               
THE REGION.  850-700MB RH FALLS FROM 55-65 PCT AT 00Z SUN TO 45-55              
PCT BY 12Z AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER FROM AROUND 6KFT TO ABOUT                
3KFT OVER THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.  THIS ALL POINTS TO A DIMINISHING              
TREND OF LES ACTIVITY WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS ARRIVING DURING THE               
EVENING AND WILL GO UP TO A HALF INCH OVER SOUTHERN MACKINAC AND                
NORTHERN EMMET COUNTIES.  MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR               
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE BETWEEN -3C TO -6C              
IN THE MORNING TO NEAR 0C BY EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BELIEVE ANY                 
LINGERING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LES                 
ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.  MOISTURE              
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE NE INTO ONTARIO AS                
WILL MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE JET             
STREAM.  SO WITH THE DEPARTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                     
CWA...LOOKS LIKE SOME SUNSHINE WILL BE HAD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS                 
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.                              
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A MID-                 
LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK ALONG ITS WARM                   
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SW WINDS              
WILL BRING RELATIVELY WARM AIR (850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -3C AND 0C)                 
INTO MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE              
30S. DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE OUT                
TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A NE MOVING SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED                    
PACIFIC WAVE. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER                    
VALLEY BY MIDDAY TO CENTRAL OHIO BY 00Z TUE. NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF              
THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW STILL LOOKS TO CLIP              
COUNTIES NEAR SAGINAW BAY. STILL HARD TO SAY IF PRECIP WILL MAKE                
HERE SINCE INITIAL DRY AIRMASS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. WILL TAKE              
OUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MORNING DUE TO THIS REASON BUT WILL                  
LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN 850MB TEMPS                  
AROUND 0C AND SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40F. PASSAGE OF AN 850MB TROUGH              
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP SWITCH THE WINDS TO THE NW AND                   
ADVECT IN COOLER AIR...BUT NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP               
TO BE GENERATED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.                     
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE              
NEXT SW LOW DUE TO PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO               
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL HAVE THEIR                       
DIFFERENCES...SPECIFICALLY WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.  BEYOND                
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT MID TO            
LATE NEXT WEEK. PUT HIGHER FAITH IN THE ENSEMBLES THAN ANY ONE                  
PARTICULAR MODEL RUN.                                                           
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NE INTO             
NEW ENGLAND.  THE 06Z GFS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ENSEMBLE                   
MEMBERS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE QUICKER SIDE...SO TRIED TO                
TAKE A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK.  THIS WOULD PLACE THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON             
THE EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE MONDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH               
WILL EMANATE FROM THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SURFACE               
LOW PASSES TO OUR SE.  WINDS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL SWITCH TO THE              
NW AND BRING IN COLDER AIR WHICH HAS THE CHANCE TO START UP LAKE                
EFFECT PROCESSES.  06Z GFS IS ON THE COLDER EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND                
WILL TEMPER EXPECTATIONS ON HOW QUICK THE COLDER AIR MOVES                      
IN...ESPECIALLY SINCE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF            
THE COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.  BUT WITH THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL                   
CYCLONIC FLOW...AND QUESTION MARKS WITH LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...WILL            
LEAVE A GENERAL LOW CHANCE POP MONDAY NIGHT.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERN              
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL SKIRT BY TO THE             
NORTH WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT.  ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL              
SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE             
DAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY               
AIR WILL POUR INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SURFACE                  
LOW...AND DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE LAKE EFFECT EVENT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN            
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.                                                        
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE.                
ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE                  
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH SW ALOFT.  DRY LOW             
LEVELS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PRESENT WILL TRY TO KEEP THE AREA            
PRECIP FREE DESPITE 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C.  SO WILL GO WITH A DRY             
BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.                    
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL               
STEMMING FROM THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW AS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE              
EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES.  06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR            
A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE THAT WOULD PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT                
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE MUCH SUPPORT            
FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  WILL INCREASE POPS HEADING INTO                 
THURSDAY AS SOME SORT OF SURFACE FEATURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THEN             
KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS AS              
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND ANY SYSTEM.                                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR                      
     MIZ015-017.                                                                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016.               
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-            
     341-342-344>346.                                                           
LH...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LHZ345>349.                                                                
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-             
     322.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
625 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN WANING IN THE PLN AREA LATE               
TODAY. THIS RELATIVE LULL SHOULD CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE EVENING.             
AN UPTICK IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE (8-10K CLOUD            
DECK OVER NORTHERN WI) MOVES OVERHEAD. THE PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL             
HELP RETURN OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TO PLN LATE TONIGHT...WITH                
WEAKER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF TVC...AND LITTLE AT APN.                 
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY...AS             
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE                   
REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SW...RESULTING IN PREVAILING LIFR                
CONDITIONS AT PLN IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW...IFR AT TIMES AT                 
TVC...AND LOW-END MVFR LATE IN THE DAY AT APN.                                  
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 404 PM FRI NOV 23...                                       
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LAKE                  
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND AMOUNTS...AND WHAT/IF ANY HEADLINES MAY            
BE NEEDED. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN            
ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISS             
VALLEY UP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE                
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY                  
DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL LOW LEVEL FLOW               
REGIME HAS BEEN IN TRANSIT THROUGH THE DAY...STARTING                           
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ENDING UP MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS OF 19Z...WITH A            
CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE WSW                  
FAVORED LOCATIONS. DESPITE RATHER SCANT 900-700MB MOISTURE                      
INITIALLY...LATEST RUC/SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPTICK IN                    
BOUNDARY LAYER RH GIVEN INCREASINGLY LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE                     
MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE BEEN RATHER                     
IMPRESSIVE IN A FEW SPOTS...NAMELY OWING TO PRONOUNCED STUBBORN LOW             
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SNUCK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH              
THE DAY. BIGGEST WINNERS SO FAR - CHARLEVOIX AND EMMET                          
COUNTIES...WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF 3 TO AS MUCH AS LOCALLY 5 INCHES            
HAVE BEEN NOTED...VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH LATEST KAPX RADAR STORM                
TOTAL SNOW GRAPHICS.                                                            
FOR TONIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN PROGGED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE AS                  
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT AHEAD OF                   
APPROACHING LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH. PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO            
WORK WITH (OBVIOUSLY GIVEN ONGOING SNOWS)...WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED              
TO "WARM" JUST SLIGHTLY TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z TOMORROW. 900-700MB RH            
ALSO QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR LES...WITH VALUES ON THE RISE TO 80 PERCENT            
OR BETTER OVERNIGHT PER CONTINUED LONG FETCH UP LAKE MICHIGAN.                  
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY REASON WHY SNOWS WON/T CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH              
OF THE NIGHT AS WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDS STATUS QUO...AND                      
INCREASING GRADIENT ACTS TO PREVENT ANY LAND BREEZES THAT COULD                 
POTENTIALLY TRY TO SHOVE ANY SNOW BANDS FARTHER OFFSHORE. USING THE             
15Z SREF POP MEAN AS GUIDANCE...WILL HANG THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS               
EMMET AND SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTIES (I.E. W/SW FLOW AREAS)...AND               
WILL RUN WITH A WARNING ACROSS EMMET (GIVEN ALREADY SNOWY CONDITIONS            
THIS AFTERNOON) AND AN ADVISORY FOR MACKINAC (WITH A HIGHER CRITERIA            
FOR WARNING).                                                                   
HEADING INTO TOMORROW...UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE                 
REGION BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z...WITH AXIS OF DECENT 700-500MB -DIVQ AND            
MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE (1000-500MB RH INCREASES TO BETTER                
THAN 90 PERCENT) ANNOUNCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT              
TO THE EVENT. CONTINUED WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOULD             
EASILY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION...HOWEVER            
WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME POSSIBLE PTYPE ISSUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE             
COAST GIVEN LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WITH FORECAST RAOBS                   
INDICATING FREEZING LEVELS ABOUT 1500 FT AGL. SOME QUESTION WHETHER             
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MELTING...AND PROBABLY DEPENDENT ON                 
INTENSITY OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL HOLD PRECIP ALL            
SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC             
SUPPORT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST              
TO EAST AS -DIVQ AXIS ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT                   
DOUBTFUL OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION GIVEN EXPECTED HIGHS IN             
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND              
OVERALL WEAK FORCING.                                                           
ON THE MARINE SIDE...INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES                
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY                  
TOMORROW MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE            
INSTABILITY-MIXED LAYER RUNNING ABOUT 35-40 KNOTS. COUPLED WITH                 
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD EASILY SEE GUSTS IN THE GALE RANGE...WITH            
GALE CONDITIONS SPREADING TO OTHER NEARSHORE AREAS BY EARLY                     
AFTERNOON AS CORE OF STRONGER 900-850MB WINDS SPREADS EAST.                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED             
TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF               
THE REGION.  850-700MB RH FALLS FROM 55-65 PCT AT 00Z SUN TO 45-55              
PCT BY 12Z AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER FROM AROUND 6KFT TO ABOUT                
3KFT OVER THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.  THIS ALL POINTS TO A DIMINISHING              
TREND OF LES ACTIVITY WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS ARRIVING DURING THE               
EVENING AND WILL GO UP TO A HALF INCH OVER SOUTHERN MACKINAC AND                
NORTHERN EMMET COUNTIES.  MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR               
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE BETWEEN -3C TO -6C              
IN THE MORNING TO NEAR 0C BY EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BELIEVE ANY                 
LINGERING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LES                 
ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.  MOISTURE              
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE NE INTO ONTARIO AS                
WILL MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE JET             
STREAM.  SO WITH THE DEPARTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                     
CWA...LOOKS LIKE SOME SUNSHINE WILL BE HAD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS                 
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.                              
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A MID-                 
LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK ALONG ITS WARM                   
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SW WINDS              
WILL BRING RELATIVELY WARM AIR (850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -3C AND 0C)                 
INTO MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE              
30S. DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE OUT                
TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A NE MOVING SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED                    
PACIFIC WAVE. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER                    
VALLEY BY MIDDAY TO CENTRAL OHIO BY 00Z TUE. NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF              
THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW STILL LOOKS TO CLIP              
COUNTIES NEAR SAGINAW BAY. STILL HARD TO SAY IF PRECIP WILL MAKE                
HERE SINCE INITIAL DRY AIRMASS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. WILL TAKE              
OUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MORNING DUE TO THIS REASON BUT WILL                  
LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN 850MB TEMPS                  
AROUND 0C AND SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40F. PASSAGE OF AN 850MB TROUGH              
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP SWITCH THE WINDS TO THE NW AND                   
ADVECT IN COOLER AIR...BUT NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP               
TO BE GENERATED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.                     
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE              
NEXT SW LOW DUE TO PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO               
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL HAVE THEIR                       
DIFFERENCES...SPECIFICALLY WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.  BEYOND                
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT MID TO            
LATE NEXT WEEK. PUT HIGHER FAITH IN THE ENSEMBLES THAN ANY ONE                  
PARTICULAR MODEL RUN.                                                           
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NE INTO             
NEW ENGLAND.  THE 06Z GFS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ENSEMBLE                   
MEMBERS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE QUICKER SIDE...SO TRIED TO                
TAKE A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK.  THIS WOULD PLACE THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON             
THE EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE MONDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL          
EMANATE FROM THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW                
PASSES TO OUR SE.  WINDS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL SWITCH TO THE NW               
AND BRING IN COLDER AIR WHICH HAS THE CHANCE TO START UP LAKE EFFECT            
PROCESSES.  06Z GFS IS ON THE COLDER EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WILL                  
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS ON HOW QUICK THE COLDER AIR MOVES                           
IN...ESPECIALLY SINCE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF            
THE COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.  BUT WITH THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL                   
CYCLONIC FLOW...AND QUESTION MARKS WITH LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...WILL            
LEAVE A GENERAL LOW CHANCE POP MONDAY NIGHT.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERN              
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL SKIRT BY TO THE             
NORTH WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT.  ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL              
SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE             
DAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY               
AIR WILL POUR INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SURFACE                  
LOW...AND DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE LAKE EFFECT EVENT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN            
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.                                                        
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE.                
ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE                  
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH SW ALOFT.  DRY LOW             
LEVELS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PRESENT WILL TRY TO KEEP THE AREA            
PRECIP FREE DESPITE 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C.  SO WILL GO WITH A DRY             
BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.                    
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL               
STEMMING FROM THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW AS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE              
EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES.  06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR            
A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE THAT WOULD PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT                
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE MUCH SUPPORT            
FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  WILL INCREASE POPS HEADING INTO                 
THURSDAY AS SOME SORT OF SURFACE FEATURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THEN             
KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS AS              
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND ANY SYSTEM.                                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ015.              
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016.               
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-            
     341-342-344>346.                                                           
LH...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LHZ345>349.                                                                
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-             
     322.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
625 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION SECTION                                                
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
MAIN FCST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND LES.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST             
OF NAMERICA WITH THE DOWNSTREAM TROF DOMINATING MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN               
NAMERICA. IN THE NW FLOW...ONE SHORTWAVE IS OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH A             
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING TOWARD NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAA               
REGIME IN RESPONSE TO THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A BAND OF               
MID CLOUDS AND STRATOCU INTO UPPER MI TODAY. SOME FLURRIES HAVE ALSO            
OCCURRED OVER THE WRN FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW              
THAT HAS DEVELOPED HAS SHIFTED WHAT IS LEFT OF LES COMPLETELY                   
OFFSHORE OF UPPER MI. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A DOMINANT BAND                 
CLOSE TO THE N SHORE OF MN EXTENDING NE TO JUST N OF ISLE ROYALE. IT            
APPEARS MUCH OF THAT BAND HAS BROKEN UP. IT`S DIFFICULT TO TELL WHAT            
IS HAPPENING NOW AS HIGHER CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING LAKE EFFECT...BUT               
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT LES IS OCCURRING BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND                
ISLE ROYALE.                                                                    
WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING NO HIGHER THAN -9C TONIGHT...LES WILL                   
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY...AND ONGOING SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR               
THE POTENTIAL OF LONG FETCH SW-NE ORIENTED LES BANDS OVER WRN LAKE              
SUPERIOR. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NRN ONTARIO HEADS ESE...SFC TROF                    
NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR NW MN WILL SLIP OVER LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE...PROMOTING THE             
DEVELOPMENT OF A DOMINANT BAND ALONG THE TROF. ALL THE MODELS                   
SUGGEST THIS...BUT THE RUC13 AND LOCALLY RUN HIGH RES WRF-ARW ARE               
MUCH MORE WELL-DEFINED WITH THE BAND. SO THE QUESTION IS...WILL THE             
WINDS BECOME WRLY ENOUGH TO PUSH THIS BAND TO THE KEWEENAW.                     
CURRENTLY...PRES RISES BEHIND THE SFC TROF ARE WEAKENING TO THE                 
POINT THAT THERE ARE ALMOST NO RISES NOTED IN THE LAST 3HRS...AND               
PRES FALLS ARE ALREADY INCREASING AND SPREADING S INTO SCNTRL CANADA            
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING S IN NRN CANADA. THUS...IT             
WOULD APPEAR THE TROF/WIND SHIFT WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS             
ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP CHC                
POPS N OF HOUGHTON OVERNIGHT AND JUST BRUSH THE SHORE OF KEWEENAW               
COUNTY WITH LIKELY POPS AND ABOUT 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION. EVENING               
SHIFT WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO SHIFT HIGHER POPS OFFSHORE OF THE                
KEWEENAW IF UPSTREAM PRES FALLS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BEHIND TROF.            
AS FOR LES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...SW FLOW WILL HAVE ENOUGH WRLY                   
COMPONENT TO KEEP ANY LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN E OF THE FCST AREA. AWAY            
FROM THE POSSIBLE LES OVER THE KEWEENAW...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF               
SLIGHT CHC -SHSN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS SFC OBS/RADAR                
INDICATE SOME -SN/FLURRIES IN THE VCNTY OF SFC TROF.                            
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING TOWARD SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL REACH            
NRN ONTARIO SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE LITTLE FOR            
MOST OF SAT. SO...THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW REMAINS THE ONLY LOCATION             
FOR ANY LES CONCERNS. SINCE THERE IS A HINT THAT THE 850MB WINDS                
TAKE ON A MORE WRLY DIRECTION SAT AFTN...THE POTENTIAL FOR LES ON               
THE KEWEENAW SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY. IF LES DOES NOT REACH               
THAT AREA TONIGHT...IT SHOULD SAT AFTN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT            
SNOW AMOUNTS CONSERVATIVE WITH JUST 1 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES NORTH OF                
HOUGHTON.                                                                       
LONGER TERM...00Z SUN ONWARD...                                                 
NAM SHOWING 500 MB FLOW GETTING ZONAL ON SUN AFTER TROUGH AXIS                  
PASSES THROUGH EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH TROUGHING FOR MON. THERE IS A               
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ON THE I280K-I295K SURFACES ON THE NAM                
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SAT NIGHT THAT SHIFTS TO              
THE NORTH ON SUN. GFS SHOWS THIS AS WELL ON I280K-I300K SURFACES                
ALONG WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR                    
CONVERGENCE WHICH REMAINS ON SUN ACROSS THE CWA. WITH WEST WINDS ON             
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...THE KEWEENAW COULD SEE SOME DECENT              
SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM SETTING UP TO HELP THE             
SNOWFALL RATES ALONG. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR KCMX AND KP59 SHOW INVERSION            
HEIGHTS ABOUT 5000 FEET THEN AND THIS FALLS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN             
MORNING. PROBLEM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IS THERE IS WARMING            
AT 850 MB FROM -8C TO -10C TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z SUN AND THEN 850 MB             
TEMPERATURES WARM MORE AFTER THAT AND THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY BY               
18Z SUN. LAKE EFFECT COMBINED WITH THE NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IN             
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL GIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SAT            
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE            
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN CWA AT THAT TIME AND THIS WILL STILL NEED              
TO BE WATCHED AS THIS COULD BE ADVISORY AMOUNT SNOW OR JUST BELOW               
ADVISORY DEPENDING ON HOW AND WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND SETS UP            
AND IF IT MOVES BACK AND FORTH AT ALL. THIS IS THE ONLY SPOT THAT               
WOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THE LAKE EFFECT COMBINED WITH THE               
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE. WILL GO UNDERNEATH ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR              
NOW AS GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST LEVELS AGAIN HAVE AN INVERTED-V            
SOUNDING LOOK TO THEM WITH SOME DRY AIR AND THIS SHOULD CUT INTO                
AMOUNTS A BIT. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING             
FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO LIKELY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH THE               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AND THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AROUND. FOR                     
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES OR VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE            
GOING FORECAST.                                                                 
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW THE 500              
MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
00Z TUE WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AFFECTING THE AREA 00Z WED. ANOTHER              
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 00Z THU AND FOR 00Z FRI WITH RIDGING FOR 00Z                
SAT. WE END UP GETTING TWO STORMS WITH THE FIRST ON MON AND THE NEXT            
ON WED AND THU. THE ONE FOR WED AND THU COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW             
PRODUCER BEHIND IT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG NORTH TO                    
NORTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE WITH ITS TRACK ANYWAY.             
WENT CLOSE TO 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES             
LOOK TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED STARTING ON WED AND               
WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE                
MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES LATE IN THE NIGHT AND SAT MORNING...BUT NO              
VIS RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL              
WHILE AWAITING THE EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVER WRN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. IT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL VEER WRLY            
ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING TO BRING WHAT COULD BE A FAIRLY              
SIGNIFICANT DOMINANT SNOW BAND ONSHORE AS FAR S AS KCMX. WITH LOW               
CONFIDENCE...TENTATIVELY INCLUDED MVFR VIS IN -SHSN MID MORNING SAT             
BASED ON SUGGESTION FROM SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION FORECAST                 
MODELS THAT WINDS WILL VEER ENOUGH TO THE W. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN            
VFR OR DROP TO IFR DEPENDING ON VERY SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND                     
DIRECTION. WHETHER OR NOT SNOW DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME              
RATHER GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FCST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL OF GALES SAT/SAT                
NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF FCST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THINKING OF THE               
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WSW GALES WILL IN FACT OCCUR SAT                       
AFTN/EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF                 
DROPPING SE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE THUS ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR            
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SAT AFTN/NIGHT. BEFORE THE GALES               
BEGIN...STIFF SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING             
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS PROBABLY BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE.            
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES...THIS TIME N TO NW GALES...MAY OCCUR LATE               
WED AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING 1 PM SAT TO MIDNIGHT EST SAT NIGHT LSZ263-264.                    
 GALE WARNING 4 PM SAT TO 3 AM EST SUN LSZ265>267.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON/TAG                                                          
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
435 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
MAIN FCST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND LES.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST             
OF NAMERICA WITH THE DOWNSTREAM TROF DOMINATING MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN               
NAMERICA. IN THE NW FLOW...ONE SHORTWAVE IS OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH A             
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING TOWARD NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAA               
REGIME IN RESPONSE TO THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A BAND OF               
MID CLOUDS AND STRATOCU INTO UPPER MI TODAY. SOME FLURRIES HAVE ALSO            
OCCURRED OVER THE WRN FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW              
THAT HAS DEVELOPED HAS SHIFTED WHAT IS LEFT OF LES COMPLETELY                   
OFFSHORE OF UPPER MI. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A DOMINANT BAND                 
CLOSE TO THE N SHORE OF MN EXTENDING NE TO JUST N OF ISLE ROYALE. IT            
APPEARS MUCH OF THAT BAND HAS BROKEN UP. IT`S DIFFICULT TO TELL WHAT            
IS HAPPENING NOW AS HIGHER CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING LAKE EFFECT...BUT               
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT LES IS OCCURRING BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND                
ISLE ROYALE.                                                                    
WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING NO HIGHER THAN -9C TONIGHT...LES WILL                   
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY...AND ONGOING SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR               
THE POTENTIAL OF LONG FETCH SW-NE ORIENTED LES BANDS OVER WRN LAKE              
SUPERIOR. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NRN ONTARIO HEADS ESE...SFC TROF                    
NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR NW MN WILL SLIP OVER LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE...PROMOTING THE             
DEVELOPMENT OF A DOMINANT BAND ALONG THE TROF. ALL THE MODELS                   
SUGGEST THIS...BUT THE RUC13 AND LOCALLY RUN HIGH RES WRF-ARW ARE               
MUCH MORE WELL-DEFINED WITH THE BAND. SO THE QUESTION IS...WILL THE             
WINDS BECOME WRLY ENOUGH TO PUSH THIS BAND TO THE KEWEENAW.                     
CURRENTLY...PRES RISES BEHIND THE SFC TROF ARE WEAKENING TO THE                 
POINT THAT THERE ARE ALMOST NO RISES NOTED IN THE LAST 3HRS...AND               
PRES FALLS ARE ALREADY INCREASING AND SPREADING S INTO SCNTRL CANADA            
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING S IN NRN CANADA. THUS...IT             
WOULD APPEAR THE TROF/WIND SHIFT WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS             
ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP CHC                
POPS N OF HOUGHTON OVERNIGHT AND JUST BRUSH THE SHORE OF KEWEENAW               
COUNTY WITH LIKELY POPS AND ABOUT 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION. EVENING               
SHIFT WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO SHIFT HIGHER POPS OFFSHORE OF THE                
KEWEENAW IF UPSTREAM PRES FALLS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BEHIND TROF.            
AS FOR LES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...SW FLOW WILL HAVE ENOUGH WRLY                   
COMPONENT TO KEEP ANY LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN E OF THE FCST AREA. AWAY            
FROM THE POSSIBLE LES OVER THE KEWEENAW...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF               
SLIGHT CHC -SHSN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS SFC OBS/RADAR                
INDICATE SOME -SN/FLURRIES IN THE VCNTY OF SFC TROF.                            
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING TOWARD SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL REACH            
NRN ONTARIO SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE LITTLE FOR            
MOST OF SAT. SO...THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW REMAINS THE ONLY LOCATION             
FOR ANY LES CONCERNS. SINCE THERE IS A HINT THAT THE 850MB WINDS                
TAKE ON A MORE WRLY DIRECTION SAT AFTN...THE POTENTIAL FOR LES ON               
THE KEWEENAW SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY. IF LES DOES NOT REACH               
THAT AREA TONIGHT...IT SHOULD SAT AFTN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT            
SNOW AMOUNTS CONSERVATIVE WITH JUST 1 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES NORTH OF                
HOUGHTON.                                                                       
LONGER TERM...00Z SUN ONWARD...                                                 
NAM SHOWING 500 MB FLOW GETTING ZONAL ON SUN AFTER TROUGH AXIS                  
PASSES THROUGH EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH TROUGHING FOR MON. THERE IS A               
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ON THE I280K-I295K SURFACES ON THE NAM                
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SAT NIGHT THAT SHIFTS TO              
THE NORTH ON SUN. GFS SHOWS THIS AS WELL ON I280K-I300K SURFACES                
ALONG WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR                    
CONVERGENCE WHICH REMAINS ON SUN ACROSS THE CWA. WITH WEST WINDS ON             
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...THE KEWEENAW COULD SEE SOME DECENT              
SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM SETTING UP TO HELP THE             
SNOWFALL RATES ALONG. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR KCMX AND KP59 SHOW INVERSION            
HEIGHTS ABOUT 5000 FEET THEN AND THIS FALLS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN             
MORNING. PROBLEM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IS THERE IS WARMING            
AT 850 MB FROM -8C TO -10C TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z SUN AND THEN 850 MB             
TEMPERATURES WARM MORE AFTER THAT AND THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY BY               
18Z SUN. LAKE EFFECT COMBINED WITH THE NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IN             
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL GIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SAT            
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE            
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN CWA AT THAT TIME AND THIS WILL STILL NEED              
TO BE WATCHED AS THIS COULD BE ADVISORY AMOUNT SNOW OR JUST BELOW               
ADVISORY DEPENDING ON HOW AND WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND SETS UP            
AND IF IT MOVES BACK AND FORTH AT ALL. THIS IS THE ONLY SPOT THAT               
WOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THE LAKE EFFECT COMBINED WITH THE               
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE. WILL GO UNDERNEATH ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR              
NOW AS GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST LEVELS AGAIN HAVE AN INVERTED-V            
SOUNDING LOOK TO THEM WITH SOME DRY AIR AND THIS SHOULD CUT INTO                
AMOUNTS A BIT. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING             
FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO LIKELY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH THE               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AND THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AROUND. FOR                     
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES OR VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE            
GOING FORECAST.                                                                 
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW THE 500              
MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
00Z TUE WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AFFECTING THE AREA 00Z WED. ANOTHER              
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 00Z THU AND FOR 00Z FRI WITH RIDGING FOR 00Z                
SAT. WE END UP GETTING TWO STORMS WITH THE FIRST ON MON AND THE NEXT            
ON WED AND THU. THE ONE FOR WED AND THU COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW             
PRODUCER BEHIND IT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG NORTH TO                    
NORTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE WITH ITS TRACK ANYWAY.             
WENT CLOSE TO 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES             
LOOK TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED STARTING ON WED AND               
WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE                
MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES LATE IN THE NIGHT AND SAT MORNING...BUT NO              
VIS RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL              
WHILE AWAITING THE EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVER WRN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL VEER WRLY                 
ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING TO BRING WHAT COULD BE A FAIRLY              
SIGNIFICANT DOMINANT SNOW BAND ONSHORE AS FAR S AS KCMX. WITH LOW               
CONFIDENCE...TENTATIVELY INCLUDED MVFR VIS IN -SHSN MID MORNING SAT             
BASED ON SUGGESTION FROM SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION FORECAST                 
MODELS THAT WINDS WILL VEER ENOUGH TO THE W. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN            
VFR OR DROP TO IFR DEPENDING ON VERY SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND                     
DIRECTION.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FCST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL OF GALES SAT/SAT                
NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF FCST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THINKING OF THE               
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WSW GALES WILL IN FACT OCCUR SAT                       
AFTN/EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF                 
DROPPING SE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE THUS ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR            
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SAT AFTN/NIGHT. BEFORE THE GALES               
BEGIN...STIFF SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING             
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS PROBABLY BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE.            
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES...THIS TIME N TO NW GALES...MAY OCCUR LATE               
WED AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING 1 PM SAT TO MIDNIGHT EST SAT NIGHT LSZ263-264.                    
 GALE WARNING 4 PM SAT TO 3 AM EST SUN LSZ265>267.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
404 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS                 
REMAINS LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND AMOUNTS...AND WHAT/IF ANY             
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES MUCH OF                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING             
FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY UP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE                     
ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE            
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL             
LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN IN TRANSIT THROUGH THE DAY...STARTING            
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ENDING UP MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS OF 19Z...WITH A            
CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE WSW                  
FAVORED LOCATIONS. DESPITE RATHER SCANT 900-700MB MOISTURE                      
INITIALLY...LATEST RUC/SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPTICK IN                    
BOUNDARY LAYER RH GIVEN INCREASINGLY LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE                     
MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE BEEN RATHER                     
IMPRESSIVE IN A FEW SPOTS...NAMELY OWING TO PRONOUNCED STUBBORN LOW             
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SNUCK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH              
THE DAY. BIGGEST WINNERS SO FAR - CHARLEVOIX AND EMMET                          
COUNTIES...WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF 3 TO AS MUCH AS LOCALLY 5 INCHES            
HAVE BEEN NOTED...VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH LATEST KAPX RADAR STORM                
TOTAL SNOW GRAPHICS.                                                            
FOR TONIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN PROGGED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE AS                  
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT AHEAD OF                   
APPROACHING LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH. PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO            
WORK WITH (OBVIOUSLY GIVEN ONGOING SNOWS)...WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED              
TO "WARM" JUST SLIGHTLY TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z TOMORROW. 900-700MB RH            
ALSO QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR LES...WITH VALUES ON THE RISE TO 80 PERCENT            
OR BETTER OVERNIGHT PER CONTINUED LONG FETCH UP LAKE MICHIGAN.                  
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY REASON WHY SNOWS WON/T CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH              
OF THE NIGHT AS WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDS STATUS QUO...AND                      
INCREASING GRADIENT ACTS TO PREVENT ANY LAND BREEZES THAT COULD                 
POTENTIALLY TRY TO SHOVE ANY SNOW BANDS FARTHER OFFSHORE. USING THE             
15Z SREF POP MEAN AS GUIDANCE...WILL HANG THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS               
EMMET AND SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTIES (I.E. W/SW FLOW AREAS)...AND               
WILL RUN WITH A WARNING ACROSS EMMET (GIVEN ALREADY SNOWY CONDITIONS            
THIS AFTERNOON) AND AN ADVISORY FOR MACKINAC (WITH A HIGHER CRITERIA            
FOR WARNING).                                                                   
HEADING INTO TOMORROW...UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE                 
REGION BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z...WITH AXIS OF DECENT 700-500MB -DIVQ AND            
MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE (1000-500MB RH INCREASES TO BETTER                
THAN 90 PERCENT) ANNOUNCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT              
TO THE EVENT. CONTINUED WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOULD             
EASILY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION...HOWEVER            
WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME POSSIBLE PTYPE ISSUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE             
COAST GIVEN LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WITH FORECAST RAOBS                   
INDICATING FREEZING LEVELS ABOUT 1500 FT AGL. SOME QUESTION WHETHER             
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MELTING...AND PROBABLY DEPENDENT ON                 
INTENSITY OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL HOLD PRECIP ALL            
SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC             
SUPPORT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST              
TO EAST AS -DIVQ AXIS ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT                   
DOUBTFUL OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION GIVEN EXPECTED HIGHS IN             
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND              
OVERALL WEAK FORCING.                                                           
ON THE MARINE SIDE...INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES                
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY                  
TOMORROW MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE            
INSTABILITY-MIXED LAYER RUNNING ABOUT 35-40 KNOTS. COUPLED WITH                 
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD EASILY SEE GUSTS IN THE GALE RANGE...WITH            
GALE CONDITIONS SPREADING TO OTHER NEARSHORE AREAS BY EARLY                     
AFTERNOON AS CORE OF STRONGER 900-850MB WINDS SPREADS EAST.                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED             
TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF               
THE REGION.  850-700MB RH FALLS FROM 55-65 PCT AT 00Z SUN TO 45-55              
PCT BY 12Z AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER FROM AROUND 6KFT TO ABOUT                
3KFT OVER THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.  THIS ALL POINTS TO A DIMINISHING              
TREND OF LES ACTIVITY WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS ARRIVING DURING THE               
EVENING AND WILL GO UP TO A HALF INCH OVER SOUTHERN MACKINAC AND                
NORTHERN EMMET COUNTIES.  MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR               
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE BETWEEN -3C TO -6C              
IN THE MORNING TO NEAR 0C BY EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BELIEVE ANY                 
LINGERING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LES                 
ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.  MOISTURE              
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE NE INTO ONTARIO AS                
WILL MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE JET             
STREAM.  SO WITH THE DEPARTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                     
CWA...LOOKS LIKE SOME SUNSHINE WILL BE HAD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS                 
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.                              
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A MID-                 
LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK ALONG ITS WARM                   
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SW WINDS              
WILL BRING RELATIVELY WARM AIR (850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -3C AND 0C)                 
INTO MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE              
30S. DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE OUT                
TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A NE MOVING SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED                    
PACIFIC WAVE. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER                    
VALLEY BY MIDDAY TO CENTRAL OHIO BY 00Z TUE. NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF              
THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW STILL LOOKS TO CLIP              
COUNTIES NEAR SAGINAW BAY. STILL HARD TO SAY IF PRECIP WILL MAKE                
HERE SINCE INITIAL DRY AIRMASS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. WILL TAKE              
OUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MORNING DUE TO THIS REASON BUT WILL                  
LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN 850MB TEMPS                  
AROUND 0C AND SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40F. PASSAGE OF AN 850MB TROUGH              
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP SWITCH THE WINDS TO THE NW AND                   
ADVECT IN COOLER AIR...BUT NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP               
TO BE GENERATED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.                     
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE              
NEXT SW LOW DUE TO PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO               
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL HAVE THEIR                       
DIFFERENCES...SPECIFICALLY WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.  BEYOND                
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT MID TO            
LATE NEXT WEEK. PUT HIGHER FAITH IN THE ENSEMBLES THAN ANY ONE                  
PARTICULAR MODEL RUN.                                                           
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NE INTO             
NEW ENGLAND.  THE 06Z GFS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ENSEMBLE                   
MEMBERS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE QUICKER SIDE...SO TRIED TO                
TAKE A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK.  THIS WOULD PLACE THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON             
THE EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE MONDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL          
EMANATE FROM THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW                
PASSES TO OUR SE.  WINDS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL SWITCH TO THE NW               
AND BRING IN COLDER AIR WHICH HAS THE CHANCE TO START UP LAKE EFFECT            
PROCESSES.  06Z GFS IS ON THE COLDER EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WILL                  
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS ON HOW QUICK THE COLDER AIR MOVES                           
IN...ESPECIALLY SINCE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF            
THE COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.  BUT WITH THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL                   
CYCLONIC FLOW...AND QUESTION MARKS WITH LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...WILL            
LEAVE A GENERAL LOW CHANCE POP MONDAY NIGHT.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERN              
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL SKIRT BY TO THE             
NORTH WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT.  ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL              
SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE             
DAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY               
AIR WILL POUR INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SURFACE                  
LOW...AND DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE LAKE EFFECT EVENT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN            
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.                                                        
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE.                
ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE                  
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH SW ALOFT.  DRY LOW             
LEVELS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PRESENT WILL TRY TO KEEP THE AREA            
PRECIP FREE DESPITE 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C.  SO WILL GO WITH A DRY             
BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.                    
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL               
STEMMING FROM THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW AS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE              
EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES.  06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR            
A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE THAT WOULD PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT                
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE MUCH SUPPORT            
FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  WILL INCREASE POPS HEADING INTO                 
THURSDAY AS SOME SORT OF SURFACE FEATURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THEN             
KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS AS              
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND ANY SYSTEM.                                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007/                               
A VARIETY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED                      
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH KPLN LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE WORST OF THE               
WEATHER. ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM                  
KTVC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME MORE FOCUSED ON KPLN BY                 
LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH              
OF ANYTHING AROUND KAPN...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS              
(MAYBE A LITTLE STRATOCU EARLY TOO) THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE                
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WINDS              
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY                      
TOMORROW MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE                
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY                
12-15Z.                                                                         
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ015.              
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016.               
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-            
     341-342-344>346.                                                           
LH...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LHZ345>349.                                                                
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-             
     322.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1230 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                     
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION                                                  
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 308 AM EST)...                                             
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHLY                
AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM               
JUST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. INTO THE YUKON AND TROUGHING              
COVERING MUCH OF THE REST OF CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE              
U.S.. WITHIN THE TROUGH...THERE ARE THREE MAIN SHRTWVS TO NOTE. THE             
FIRST SHRTWV LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA CAN BE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY            
WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER NW ONTARIO AT THE SURFACE BY A COLD FRONT OVER            
CENTRAL MANITOBA. WARM ADVECTION SOUTH OF THIS SHRTWV IS SUPPORTING             
A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHICH HAS HAD SOME                
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SECOND SHRTWV IS COMING DOWN                   
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE            
LAST SHRTWV IS UP IN THE NUNAVUT REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR               
VORTEX. CLOSER TO HOME...A 1028MB SURFACE RIDGE HAS DROPPED SE INTO             
UPPER MI. DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z INL SOUNDING AND CLEAR SKIES                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED INLAND TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO             
1 ABOVE F AT WAKEFIELD AND IN LAND O LAKES (THE CHAMPION AREA IS                
PROBABLY JUST AS COLD GIVEN THAT WE ARE 7 ABOVE HERE). A FEW LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL MANAGING TO PERSIST OVER THE KEWEENAW             
PENINSULA AND EAST OF MARQUETTE...DESPITE THE DRY AIR. LOOK LIKE THE            
LAKE EFFECT IS BEING MAINTAINED MOSTLY BY LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE               
MECHANISMS...AND WITH LIGHT FLOW...MORE LAKE MOISTENING CAN TAKE                
PLACE. IN FACT...CMX DID GO DOWN TO A 1/2SM A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 308 AM EST)...                                           
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POSITION OF LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER WESTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                           
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA WILL DROP SE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY              
00Z...BRINGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN. SW FLOW            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA...                 
THOUGH WITH 00Z RAOBS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -12C AT                    
MPX...BIS AND ABR...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE. IN              
FACT...THE NAM/GFS ONLY SHOW 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO ABOUT -9 TO -11C            
BY 21Z WHICH WOULD BE AN INCREASE OF 2-3C FROM CURRENT. INITIAL                 
SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN MN LOOKS TO ENTER WESTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES EASTERN               
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FOR -SN IS MAINLY              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE            
SHRTWV...HOWEVER SOME MID CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO CROSS THE REST OF THE            
CWA. GIVEN THE COLD 850MB TEMPS...THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS LAKE               
EFFECT. SINCE LAKE EFFECT BANDS STILL PERSIST RIGHT NOW OVER WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR...THEY SHOULD REORIENT THEMSELVES WITH THE SW FLOW.               
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THEY SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OF THE KEWEENAW                  
PENINSULA...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE FOCUSED BETWEEN KEWEENAW             
COUNTY AND ISLE ROYALE. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE            
MORNING UP IN THE KEWEENAW AS WE WAIT FOR THE WINDS TO BACK SW...BUT            
IN THE AFTERNOON...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE. TEMPS             
TODAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT               
PROBABLY REACH AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR                     
SHORELINE (DOWNSLOPING) AND OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW OFF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE YUKON IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO                    
MANITOBA AND CONNECT WITH THE SHRTWV OVER THE NUNAVUT REGION...                 
BRINGING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NW ONTARIO. SW FLOW              
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH THE SHRTWV TODAY MOVING INTO                   
NORTHERN ONTARIO HEADING OFF INTO QUEBEC...SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW              
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN. THERE IS SOME             
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL MAKE INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA                
BEFORE 12Z. IF IT MOVES INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SUGGESTED BY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN...THEN THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF DECENT LAKE             
EFFECT SNOW DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                      
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST...WHICH            
RESULTS IN GENERAL SW FLOW...THUS HOLDING ANY LES CONVERGENT BAND               
OFFSHORE. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT              
OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT ALONE UNTIL A               
CLEARER PICTURE IS PRESENT TO EITHER UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE POPS. OVER            
THE REST OF THE CWA...MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW TO                     
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA IN SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF              
UPPER TROUGHING CROSSING MN. THE GFS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH                
THIS MOISTURE GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DPVA FORCING. WE COULD BE                   
DEALING WITH EITHER SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES... BUT GIVEN            
THE WEAK FORCING...NO MORE THAN 20 POPS ARE WARRANTED. WITH A SW                
BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER...BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE                
PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                              
SATURDAY...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN             
DURING THIS PERIOD...CAUSING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE             
NORTHERN U.S.. THUS...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FAIRLY               
STRONG...IT WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH             
THE POLAR VORTEX ONLY MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CHURCHILL MANITOBA.             
HOWEVER...THE FLOW TURNING WESTERLY ALOFT SHOULD HELP PROPEL THE                
COLD FRONT NEAR OR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS THE CWA.                   
THEREFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE KEWEENAW                
PENINSULA...MOST LIKELY HEAVIEST IN THE MORNING WITH CONVERGENCE                
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SPOT OF INTEREST FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
IS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LUCE AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW             
THE WINDS APPEAR TOO SW TO IMPACT THESE AREAS...BUT SOMETHING TO                
WATCH. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE             
MORNING AS MENTIONED IN THE TONIGHT DISCUSSION AS THE UPPER TROUGH              
OVER MN CROSSES THE CWA. COOL 850MB TEMPS REMAINING OVER THE AREA               
(-9 TO -10C) COMBINED WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP SURFACE              
TEMPS COOL BUT PROBABLY SIMILAR TO HIGHS OF TODAY.                              
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DROP             
SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA SAT NIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE              
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH              
INTO MONTANA IN RESPONSE OT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DROPPING INTO                
NORTHERN ALBERTA ON SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS SHUNTED SE              
TO SE MANITOBA BY 00Z MON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL HELP TO               
BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS                 
PROGGED TO CLIMB TO 0C BY 00Z MONDAY. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...THERE IS            
ONE CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING              
THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL BE HEADING OFF TOWARDS QUEBEC...THE COLD              
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE KEWEENAW            
PENINSULA. MAY HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DECENT              
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND            
WEAK LIFT OVERHEAD THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT. THIS ZONE OF            
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...MOSTLY CAUSED BY ISENTROPIC LIFTING IN THE WARM            
ADVECTION PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WILL             
REMAIN OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.             
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL HELP TO HOLD READINGS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT              
MAY PREVENT OUR HIGHS FROM GETTING AS WARM AS THEY COULD ON SUNDAY.             
TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE               
CLOUDS.                                                                         
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA            
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH...BUT STRONG PACIFIC FLOW                 
REDEVELOPING ON MONDAY WILL ALSO CAUSE MUCH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH TO             
GET SHUNTED EAST. AT 00Z TUE...ALL THE MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER                   
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NEAR THE MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO BORDER. WITH             
THE FLOW STAYING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THE LOW THAT WAS OVER SE                  
MANITOBA AT 00Z MON SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON                      
MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYSTEM LOOKS                
QUITE DRY...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TIED UP WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM            
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...THE ONLY WAY IT LOOKS             
LIKE WE CAN GET PCPN WOULD BE FROM LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE ECMWF                 
SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10C BY 00Z TUE.                          
HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT TO BEGIN                
WITH...GENERATING LAKE EFFECT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT. THEREFORE...HAVE              
LOWERED POPS TO 20 AND ONLY PUT THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NW FLOW               
AREAS. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARMER                   
AIRMASS MOVING IN AND SOMEWHAT OF A SW BREEZE SHOULD HELP HOLD                  
READINGS UP. ON MONDAY...SOME SUN DURING THE MORNING SHOULD HELP                
BOOST READINGS TO HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A             
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE            
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                           
BEYOND MONDAY...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON ANY COLD              
SHOT OF AIR COMING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 00Z              
GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING THE UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE                 
CWA...WHICH ALLOWS 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO -15 TO -19C BY 00Z.                   
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THAT UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSIVE...MOVING            
IT INTO QUEBEC BY 00Z WED. ALSO...THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICTS A LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS ON TUE...AND FRONTOGENESIS             
NORTH OF THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING THE CWA             
BY TUESDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH                       
WARMER...FROM -4C NEAR MNM TO -12C OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
GIVEN THIS DIFFERENCE AND CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WILL NOT                  
MODIFY THE FORECAST MUCH BEYOND MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN WHAT LOOKS              
TO BE STRONGER PACIFIC FLOW ON MONDAY NOW...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAY              
NOT BE TOO FAR-FETCHED. IF THE ECMWF DOES PAN OUT...THAT LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO MOVE UP INTO THE CWA ON WED...WHICH                 
COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC SNOW...PARTICULARLY ON THE               
NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE                
MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES LATE IN THE NIGHT AND SAT MORNING...BUT NO              
VIS RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL              
WHILE AWAITING THE EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVER WRN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL VEER WRLY                 
ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING TO BRING WHAT COULD BE A FAIRLY              
SIGNIFICANT DOMINANT SNOW BAND ONSHORE AS FAR S AS KCMX. WITH LOW               
CONFIDENCE...TENTATIVELY INCLUDED MVFR VIS IN -SHSN MID MORNING SAT             
BASED ON SUGGESTION FROM SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION FORECAST                 
MODELS THAT WINDS WILL VEER ENOUGH TO THE W. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN            
VFR OR DROP TO IFR DEPENDING ON VERY SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND                     
DIRECTION.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER THE WEEKEND.  OF              
GREATEST CONCERN IS THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND                            
EVENING..BASICALLY 21Z FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE TO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY                 
ACROSS THE EAST.  FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE CRITERIA STILL               
SEEM REALISTIC AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.                 
SUNDAY IS BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN...AND HAVE DECREASED WINDS AS A            
RESULT.  STILL...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THE POSITIONING AND             
STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT LOW.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
640 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION                                                  
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHLY                
AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM               
JUST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. INTO THE YUKON AND TROUGHING              
COVERING MUCH OF THE REST OF CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE              
U.S.. WITHIN THE TROUGH...THERE ARE THREE MAIN SHRTWVS TO NOTE. THE             
FIRST SHRTWV LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA CAN BE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY            
WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER NW ONTARIO AT THE SURFACE BY A COLD FRONT OVER            
CENTRAL MANITOBA. WARM ADVECTION SOUTH OF THIS SHRTWV IS SUPPORTING             
A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHICH HAS HAD SOME                
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SECOND SHRTWV IS COMING DOWN                   
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE            
LAST SHRTWV IS UP IN THE NUNAVUT REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR               
VORTEX. CLOSER TO HOME...A 1028MB SURFACE RIDGE HAS DROPPED SE INTO             
UPPER MI. DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z INL SOUNDING AND CLEAR SKIES                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED INLAND TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO             
1 ABOVE F AT WAKEFIELD AND IN LAND O LAKES (THE CHAMPION AREA IS                
PROBABLY JUST AS COLD GIVEN THAT WE ARE 7 ABOVE HERE). A FEW LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL MANAGING TO PERSIST OVER THE KEWEENAW             
PENINSULA AND EAST OF MARQUETTE...DESPITE THE DRY AIR. LOOK LIKE THE            
LAKE EFFECT IS BEING MAINTAINED MOSTLY BY LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE               
MECHANISMS...AND WITH LIGHT FLOW...MORE LAKE MOISTENING CAN TAKE                
PLACE. IN FACT...CMX DID GO DOWN TO A 1/2SM A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POSITION OF LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER WESTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                           
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA WILL DROP SE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY              
00Z...BRINGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN. SW FLOW            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA...                 
THOUGH WITH 00Z RAOBS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -12C AT                    
MPX...BIS AND ABR...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE. IN              
FACT...THE NAM/GFS ONLY SHOW 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO ABOUT -9 TO -11C            
BY 21Z WHICH WOULD BE AN INCREASE OF 2-3C FROM CURRENT. INITIAL                 
SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN MN LOOKS TO ENTER WESTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES EASTERN               
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FOR -SN IS MAINLY              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE            
SHRTWV...HOWEVER SOME MID CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO CROSS THE REST OF THE            
CWA. GIVEN THE COLD 850MB TEMPS...THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS LAKE               
EFFECT. SINCE LAKE EFFECT BANDS STILL PERSIST RIGHT NOW OVER WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR...THEY SHOULD REORIENT THEMSELVES WITH THE SW FLOW.               
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THEY SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OF THE KEWEENAW                  
PENINSULA...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE FOCUSED BETWEEN KEWEENAW             
COUNTY AND ISLE ROYALE. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE            
MORNING UP IN THE KEWEENAW AS WE WAIT FOR THE WINDS TO BACK SW...BUT            
IN THE AFTERNOON...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE. TEMPS             
TODAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT               
PROBABLY REACH AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR                     
SHORELINE (DOWNSLOPING) AND OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW OFF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE YUKON IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO                    
MANITOBA AND CONNECT WITH THE SHRTWV OVER THE NUNAVUT REGION...                 
BRINGING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NW ONTARIO. SW FLOW              
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH THE SHRTWV TODAY MOVING INTO                   
NORTHERN ONTARIO HEADING OFF INTO QUEBEC...SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW              
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN. THERE IS SOME             
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL MAKE INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA                
BEFORE 12Z. IF IT MOVES INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SUGGESTED BY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN...THEN THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF DECENT LAKE             
EFFECT SNOW DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                      
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST...WHICH            
RESULTS IN GENERAL SW FLOW...THUS HOLDING ANY LES CONVERGENT BAND               
OFFSHORE. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT              
OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT ALONE UNTIL A               
CLEARER PICTURE IS PRESENT TO EITHER UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE POPS. OVER            
THE REST OF THE CWA...MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW TO                     
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA IN SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF              
UPPER TROUGHING CROSSING MN. THE GFS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH                
THIS MOISTURE GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DPVA FORCING. WE COULD BE                   
DEALING WITH EITHER SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES... BUT GIVEN            
THE WEAK FORCING...NO MORE THAN 20 POPS ARE WARRANTED. WITH A SW                
BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER...BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE                
PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                              
SATURDAY...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN             
DURING THIS PERIOD...CAUSING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE             
NORTHERN U.S.. THUS...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FAIRLY               
STRONG...IT WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH             
THE POLAR VORTEX ONLY MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CHURCHILL MANITOBA.             
HOWEVER...THE FLOW TURNING WESTERLY ALOFT SHOULD HELP PROPEL THE                
COLD FRONT NEAR OR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS THE CWA.                   
THEREFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE KEWEENAW                
PENINSULA...MOST LIKELY HEAVIEST IN THE MORNING WITH CONVERGENCE                
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SPOT OF INTEREST FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
IS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LUCE AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW             
THE WINDS APPEAR TOO SW TO IMPACT THESE AREAS...BUT SOMETHING TO                
WATCH. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE             
MORNING AS MENTIONED IN THE TONIGHT DISCUSSION AS THE UPPER TROUGH              
OVER MN CROSSES THE CWA. COOL 850MB TEMPS REMAINING OVER THE AREA               
(-9 TO -10C) COMBINED WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP SURFACE              
TEMPS COOL BUT PROBABLY SIMILAR TO HIGHS OF TODAY.                              
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DROP             
SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA SAT NIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE              
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH              
INTO MONTANA IN RESPONSE OT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DROPPING INTO                
NORTHERN ALBERTA ON SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS SHUNTED SE              
TO SE MANITOBA BY 00Z MON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL HELP TO               
BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS                 
PROGGED TO CLIMB TO 0C BY 00Z MONDAY. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...THERE IS            
ONE CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING              
THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL BE HEADING OFF TOWARDS QUEBEC...THE COLD              
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE KEWEENAW            
PENINSULA. MAY HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DECENT              
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND            
WEAK LIFT OVERHEAD THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT. THIS ZONE OF            
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...MOSTLY CAUSED BY ISENTROPIC LIFTING IN THE WARM            
ADVECTION PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WILL             
REMAIN OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.             
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL HELP TO HOLD READINGS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT              
MAY PREVENT OUR HIGHS FROM GETTING AS WARM AS THEY COULD ON SUNDAY.             
TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE               
CLOUDS.                                                                         
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA            
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH...BUT STRONG PACIFIC FLOW                 
REDEVELOPING ON MONDAY WILL ALSO CAUSE MUCH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH TO             
GET SHUNTED EAST. AT 00Z TUE...ALL THE MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER                   
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NEAR THE MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO BORDER. WITH             
THE FLOW STAYING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THE LOW THAT WAS OVER SE                  
MANITOBA AT 00Z MON SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON                      
MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYSTEM LOOKS                
QUITE DRY...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TIED UP WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM            
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...THE ONLY WAY IT LOOKS             
LIKE WE CAN GET PCPN WOULD BE FROM LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE ECMWF                 
SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10C BY 00Z TUE.                          
HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT TO BEGIN                
WITH...GENERATING LAKE EFFECT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT. THEREFORE...HAVE              
LOWERED POPS TO 20 AND ONLY PUT THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NW FLOW               
AREAS. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARMER                   
AIRMASS MOVING IN AND SOMEWHAT OF A SW BREEZE SHOULD HELP HOLD                  
READINGS UP. ON MONDAY...SOME SUN DURING THE MORNING SHOULD HELP                
BOOST READINGS TO HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A             
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE            
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                           
BEYOND MONDAY...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON ANY COLD              
SHOT OF AIR COMING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 00Z              
GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING THE UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE                 
CWA...WHICH ALLOWS 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO -15 TO -19C BY 00Z.                   
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THAT UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSIVE...MOVING            
IT INTO QUEBEC BY 00Z WED. ALSO...THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICTS A LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS ON TUE...AND FRONTOGENESIS             
NORTH OF THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING THE CWA             
BY TUESDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH                       
WARMER...FROM -4C NEAR MNM TO -12C OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
GIVEN THIS DIFFERENCE AND CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WILL NOT                  
MODIFY THE FORECAST MUCH BEYOND MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN WHAT LOOKS              
TO BE STRONGER PACIFIC FLOW ON MONDAY NOW...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAY              
NOT BE TOO FAR-FETCHED. IF THE ECMWF DOES PAN OUT...THAT LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO MOVE UP INTO THE CWA ON WED...WHICH                 
COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC SNOW...PARTICULARLY ON THE               
NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY              
FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS IS CMX...BOTH EARLY AND LATE. PESKY                 
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONVERGING OVER THE KEWENAW HAS                  
BROUGHT ABOUT WIDELY VARYING VIS AND CIGS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.  THIS              
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE NEXT BAND OF                
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO SLIDE FAR ENOUGH ACROSS THE KEWENAW                 
PENINSULA TO BRING MVFR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE                
LAST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER THE WEEKEND.  OF              
GREATEST CONCERN IS THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND                            
EVENING..BASICALLY 21Z FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE TO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY                 
ACROSS THE EAST.  FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE CRITERIA STILL               
SEEM REALISTIC AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.                 
SUNDAY IS BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN...AND HAVE DECREASED WINDS AS A            
RESULT.  STILL...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THE POSITIONING AND             
STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT LOW.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
308 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHLY                
AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM               
JUST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. INTO THE YUKON AND TROUGHING              
COVERING MUCH OF THE REST OF CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE              
U.S.. WITHIN THE TROUGH...THERE ARE THREE MAIN SHRTWVS TO NOTE. THE             
FIRST SHRTWV LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA CAN BE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY            
WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER NW ONTARIO AT THE SURFACE BY A COLD FRONT OVER            
CENTRAL MANITOBA. WARM ADVECTION SOUTH OF THIS SHRTWV IS SUPPORTING             
A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHICH HAS HAD SOME                
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SECOND SHRTWV IS COMING DOWN                   
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE            
LAST SHRTWV IS UP IN THE NUNAVUT REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR               
VORTEX. CLOSER TO HOME...A 1028MB SURFACE RIDGE HAS DROPPED SE INTO             
UPPER MI. DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z INL SOUNDING AND CLEAR SKIES                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED INLAND TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO             
1 ABOVE F AT WAKEFIELD AND IN LAND O LAKES (THE CHAMPION AREA IS                
PROBABLY JUST AS COLD GIVEN THAT WE ARE 7 ABOVE HERE). A FEW LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL MANAGING TO PERSIST OVER THE KEWEENAW             
PENINSULA AND EAST OF MARQUETTE...DESPITE THE DRY AIR. LOOK LIKE THE            
LAKE EFFECT IS BEING MAINTAINED MOSTLY BY LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE               
MECHANISMS...AND WITH LIGHT FLOW...MORE LAKE MOISTENING CAN TAKE                
PLACE. IN FACT...CMX DID GO DOWN TO A 1/2SM A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POSITION OF LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER WESTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                           
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA WILL DROP SE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY              
00Z...BRINGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN. SW FLOW            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA...                 
THOUGH WITH 00Z RAOBS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -12C AT                    
MPX...BIS AND ABR...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE. IN              
FACT...THE NAM/GFS ONLY SHOW 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO ABOUT -9 TO -11C            
BY 21Z WHICH WOULD BE AN INCREASE OF 2-3C FROM CURRENT. INITIAL                 
SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN MN LOOKS TO ENTER WESTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES EASTERN               
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FOR -SN IS MAINLY              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE            
SHRTWV...HOWEVER SOME MID CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO CROSS THE REST OF THE            
CWA. GIVEN THE COLD 850MB TEMPS...THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS LAKE               
EFFECT. SINCE LAKE EFFECT BANDS STILL PERSIST RIGHT NOW OVER WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR...THEY SHOULD REORIENT THEMSELVES WITH THE SW FLOW.               
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THEY SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OF THE KEWEENAW                  
PENINSULA...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE FOCUSED BETWEEN KEWEENAW             
COUNTY AND ISLE ROYALE. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE            
MORNING UP IN THE KEWEENAW AS WE WAIT FOR THE WINDS TO BACK SW...BUT            
IN THE AFTERNOON...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE. TEMPS             
TODAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF...BUT               
PROBABLY REACH AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR                     
SHORELINE (DOWNSLOPING) AND OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW OFF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE YUKON IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO                    
MANITOBA AND CONNECT WITH THE SHRTWV OVER THE NUNAVUT REGION...                 
BRINGING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NW ONTARIO. SW FLOW              
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH THE SHRTWV TODAY MOVING INTO                   
NORTHERN ONTARIO HEADING OFF INTO QUEBEC...SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW              
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN. THERE IS SOME             
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL MAKE INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA                
BEFORE 12Z. IF IT MOVES INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SUGGESTED BY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN...THEN THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF DECENT LAKE             
EFFECT SNOW DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                      
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST...WHICH            
RESULTS IN GENERAL SW FLOW...THUS HOLDING ANY LES CONVERGENT BAND               
OFFSHORE. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT              
OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT ALONE UNTIL A               
CLEARER PICTURE IS PRESENT TO EITHER UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE POPS. OVER            
THE REST OF THE CWA...MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW TO                     
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA IN SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF              
UPPER TROUGHING CROSSING MN. THE GFS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH                
THIS MOISTURE GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DPVA FORCING. WE COULD BE                   
DEALING WITH EITHER SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES... BUT GIVEN            
THE WEAK FORCING...NO MORE THAN 20 POPS ARE WARRANTED. WITH A SW                
BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER...BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE                
PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                              
SATURDAY...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN             
DURING THIS PERIOD...CAUSING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE             
NORTHERN U.S.. THUS...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FAIRLY               
STRONG...IT WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH             
THE POLAR VORTEX ONLY MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CHURCHILL MANITOBA.             
HOWEVER...THE FLOW TURNING WESTERLY ALOFT SHOULD HELP PROPEL THE                
COLD FRONT NEAR OR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS THE CWA.                   
THEREFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE KEWEENAW                
PENINSULA...MOST LIKELY HEAVIEST IN THE MORNING WITH CONVERGENCE                
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SPOT OF INTEREST FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
IS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LUCE AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW             
THE WINDS APPEAR TOO SW TO IMPACT THESE AREAS...BUT SOMETHING TO                
WATCH. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE             
MORNING AS MENTIONED IN THE TONIGHT DISCUSSION AS THE UPPER TROUGH              
OVER MN CROSSES THE CWA. COOL 850MB TEMPS REMAINING OVER THE AREA               
(-9 TO -10C) COMBINED WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP SURFACE              
TEMPS COOL BUT PROBABLY SIMILAR TO HIGHS OF TODAY.                              
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DROP             
SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA SAT NIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE              
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH              
INTO MONTANA IN RESPONSE OT A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DROPPING INTO                
NORTHERN ALBERTA ON SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS SHUNTED SE              
TO SE MANITOBA BY 00Z MON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL HELP TO               
BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS                 
PROGGED TO CLIMB TO 0C BY 00Z MONDAY. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...THERE IS            
ONE CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING              
THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL BE HEADING OFF TOWARDS QUEBEC...THE COLD              
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE KEWEENAW            
PENINSULA. MAY HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DECENT              
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND            
WEAK LIFT OVERHEAD THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT. THIS ZONE OF            
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...MOSTLY CAUSED BY ISENTROPIC LIFTING IN THE WARM            
ADVECTION PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WILL             
REMAIN OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.             
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL HELP TO HOLD READINGS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT              
MAY PREVENT OUR HIGHS FROM GETTING AS WARM AS THEY COULD ON SUNDAY.             
TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE               
CLOUDS.                                                                         
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA            
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH...BUT STRONG PACIFIC FLOW                 
REDEVELOPING ON MONDAY WILL ALSO CAUSE MUCH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH TO             
GET SHUNTED EAST. AT 00Z TUE...ALL THE MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER                   
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NEAR THE MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO BORDER. WITH             
THE FLOW STAYING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THE LOW THAT WAS OVER SE                  
MANITOBA AT 00Z MON SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON                      
MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYSTEM LOOKS                
QUITE DRY...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TIED UP WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM            
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...THE ONLY WAY IT LOOKS             
LIKE WE CAN GET PCPN WOULD BE FROM LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE ECMWF                 
SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10C BY 00Z TUE.                          
HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT TO BEGIN                
WITH...GENERATING LAKE EFFECT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT. THEREFORE...HAVE              
LOWERED POPS TO 20 AND ONLY PUT THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NW FLOW               
AREAS. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARMER                   
AIRMASS MOVING IN AND SOMEWHAT OF A SW BREEZE SHOULD HELP HOLD                  
READINGS UP. ON MONDAY...SOME SUN DURING THE MORNING SHOULD HELP                
BOOST READINGS TO HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A             
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE            
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                           
BEYOND MONDAY...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON ANY COLD              
SHOT OF AIR COMING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 00Z              
GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING THE UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE                 
CWA...WHICH ALLOWS 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO -15 TO -19C BY 00Z.                   
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THAT UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSIVE...MOVING            
IT INTO QUEBEC BY 00Z WED. ALSO...THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICTS A LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS ON TUE...AND FRONTOGENESIS             
NORTH OF THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING THE CWA             
BY TUESDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH                       
WARMER...FROM -4C NEAR MNM TO -12C OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
GIVEN THIS DIFFERENCE AND CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WILL NOT                  
MODIFY THE FORECAST MUCH BEYOND MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN WHAT LOOKS              
TO BE STRONGER PACIFIC FLOW ON MONDAY NOW...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAY              
NOT BE TOO FAR-FETCHED. IF THE ECMWF DOES PAN OUT...THAT LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO MOVE UP INTO THE CWA ON WED...WHICH                 
COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC SNOW...PARTICULARLY ON THE               
NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUING BACKING TONIGHT...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AT                
KSAW BUT KEEPING FLURRIES GOING AT CMX THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO LEFT              
PRECIP IN THE TAF THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS BECOME SW...               
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW COMES BACK INTO CMX. ALTHOUGH CMX MAY FLIRT                
WITH MVFR CEILINGS EARLY...CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATIONS SHOULD                  
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE FRIDAY                 
EVENING MAY PUSH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO CMX.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER THE WEEKEND.  OF              
GREATEST CONCERN IS THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND                            
EVENING..BASICALLY 21Z FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE TO AROUND 06Z SUNDAY                 
ACROSS THE EAST.  FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE CRITERIA STILL               
SEEM REALISTIC AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.                 
SUNDAY IS BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN...AND HAVE DECREASED WINDS AS A            
RESULT.  STILL...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THE POSITIONING AND             
STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT LOW.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1230 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                     
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION SECTION                                                
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AND EVOLUTION OF LES.                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF DOMINATING CENTRAL             
NAMERICA BTWN RIDGES OVER THE W COAST AND JUST OFF THE E COAST. AT              
THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE WRN PLAINS WITH A              
RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO ONTARIO. AIRMASS FLOWING INTO UPPER MI ON               
THE NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE IS VERY DRY. SFC DWPTS UPWIND OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR ARE AROUND 0F...AND 12Z RAOBS FROM KINL/CWPL SHOWED               
MEAGER PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. IN THE CASE OF            
KINL...THAT IS 25PCT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE DRY AIR               
HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE IMPACT ON LES DESPITE 850MB TEMPS                
AROUND -15C (PER EARLY AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDINGS)...YIELDING A                      
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 20C. NOTHING MORE THAN -SHSN/FLURRIES HAVE            
BEEN NOTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION. LONG FETCH COMBINED WITH                         
PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE NIPIGON AND LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE INTO              
THUNDER BAY N OF ISLE ROYALE HAS LED TO MORE SIGNIFICANT LES                    
STREAMING S AND IMPACTING VERY SMALL AREAS OF FAR WRN                           
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. KIWD VCNTY HAS PICKED UP 3-4 INCHES OF              
SNOW TODAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE HAS BEEN LOCALLY MORE.               
AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION                  
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO A SW DIRECTION OVER WRN UPPER            
MI AND TO A WNW DIRECTION OVER ERN UPPER MI BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL               
SHIFT LINGERING LES N AND OUT OF GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. AT THIS            
POINT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION OVER THE WRN FCST AREA                  
TONIGHT DUE TO SHIFTING BANDS AND LOSS OF THE LAKE NIPIGON                      
CONNECTION. FETCH LENGTH WILL IMPROVE INTO THE KEWEENAW LATE TONIGHT            
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND BREEZES FOCUSING CONVERGENCE. EVEN                 
SO...UPSTREAM DRY AIRMASS AND LOW INVERSION AROUND 4KFT SHOULD KEEP             
LES IN CHECK WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH. TO THE E...THERE              
SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN LIGHT LES AS FETCH LENGTH INCREASES IN NW            
FLOW. AS FOR TEMPS...THERE WILL BE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS                
TO CRASH TONIGHT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING                 
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM. THEN                
ONCE SHARP SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS...RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY               
NOT DEVELOP DOWN TO THE SFC UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. MIN PRECIPITABLE               
WATER (ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR 25-35PCT OF NORMAL) PASSING OVERHEAD             
AT THE SAME TIME WILL ENHANCE THE COOLING POTENTIAL. LOCATIONS THAT             
HAVE A LIGHT SNOW COVER SHOULD SEE TEMPS TUMBLE TOWARD 0F. DECIDED              
TO LOWER TEMPS TO 0F AROUND THE TYPICAL COLD SPOT OF CHAMPION. WOULD            
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FAR W (KIWD TOWARD BERGLAND/MARENISCO)              
DROP JUST AS LOW WITH THE NEW FRESH SNOW COVER. HAVE ONLY GONE 5-10F            
IN THAT AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS THERE THIS EVENING.                     
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE THRU SCNTRL CANADA AND THE                   
DAKOTAS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT                   
REGIME. CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ARE HIGH...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE            
FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK DURING THE            
DAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LES SHOULD               
CONTINUE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH SW FLOW...LES WILL BE                 
MOSTLY BE OFFSHORE OF UPPER MI. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE TIP OF              
THE KEWEENAW WHERE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WRLY COMPONENT                 
-SHSN/FLURRIES TO CLIP THAT AREA.                                               
.LONG TERM (00Z SAT ONWARD)...                                                  
500 MB TROUGHING CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH            
NW FLOW BEFORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES IN TO THE AREA FOR SUN.             
NAM SHOWING SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH FRI             
NIGHT AND SAT WITH SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. NAM SHOWING SOME                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I285K SURFACES IN THE MID                 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FRI NIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE SAME THING ALONG              
WITH THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS                 
WELL. MOISTURE IS IN THE MID LEVELS HOWEVER...SO WILL GO SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE               
TIME TO SATURATE EXCEPT IN THE KEWEENAW WITH LAKE EFFECT GOING.                 
WHAT THIS WILL DO IS HELP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW BAND TO GET GOING AND COULD BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF            
THE LAKE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW SOMEWHERE NORTH OF HOUGHTON FRI NIGHT              
INTO SAT. A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM COULD SET UP WHICH WOULD HELP               
ACCUMULATIONS OUT. THE PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS WSW TO SW WHICH SHOULD            
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OFFSHORE OF THE                        
KEWEENAW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY SINCE IT COULD SNOW            
PRETTY HEAVILY FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM IN            
PLACE. COULD BE ADVISORY OR CLOSE TO IT...BUT THINK A SMALL ENOUGH              
AREA IS AFFECTED TO NOT GO WITH ANYTHING RIGHT NOW. THIS WILL HAVE              
TO BE WATCHED AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION. DID NOT                
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHERWISE. WENT CLOSE TO            
ADJMVR FOR TEMPERATURES.                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS 00Z MON WITH ZONAL FLOW                  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AT THAT TIME. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND                
AFFECTS THE CWA 00Z TUE. THE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA 00Z               
WED WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED. RIDGING                    
CONTINUES INTO 00Z THU AND 00Z FRI. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT               
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR                       
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. ALSO                
WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN EVERY PERIOD BUT SUN NIGHT AND WED                
WITH RIDGING FOR SUN NIGHT WITH FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND              
FOR WED WITH A SFC HIGH BUILDING IN AND LIGHT WINDS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUING BACKING TONIGHT...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AT                
KSAW BUT KEEPING FLURRIES GOING AT CMX THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO LEFT              
PRECIP IN THE TAF THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS BECOME                     
SW...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW COMES BACK INTO CMX. ALTHOUGH CMX MAY                 
FLIRT WITH MVFR CEILINGS EARLY...CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATIONS SHOULD            
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE FRIDAY                 
EVENING MAY PUSH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO CMX.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES SAT/SAT EVENING AS A               
TROF PASSES THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH AIRMASS STILL               
UNSTABLE OVER THE LAKE SHOULD SUPPORT LOW END GALES (AT A MINIMUM               
FREQUENT GALE GUSTS). ANOTHER LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W ON                
SUN COULD BOOST WINDS BACK TOWARD GALES AGAIN SUN AFTN/EVENING. HAVE            
ONLY INDICATED WINDS TO 30KT FOR NOW. NO GALES ARE FORESEEN FOR                 
THE REMAINDER OF THIS FCST PERIOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...TAG/JLB                                                              
MARINE..ROLFSON                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
630 PM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION SECTION                                                
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AND EVOLUTION OF LES.                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF DOMINATING CENTRAL             
NAMERICA BTWN RIDGES OVER THE W COAST AND JUST OFF THE E COAST. AT              
THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE WRN PLAINS WITH A              
RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO ONTARIO. AIRMASS FLOWING INTO UPPER MI ON               
THE NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE IS VERY DRY. SFC DWPTS UPWIND OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR ARE AROUND 0F...AND 12Z RAOBS FROM KINL/CWPL SHOWED               
MEAGER PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. IN THE CASE OF            
KINL...THAT IS 25PCT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE DRY AIR               
HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE IMPACT ON LES DESPITE 850MB TEMPS                
AROUND -15C (PER EARLY AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDINGS)...YIELDING A                      
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 20C. NOTHING MORE THAN -SHSN/FLURRIES HAVE            
BEEN NOTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION. LONG FETCH COMBINED WITH                         
PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE NIPIGON AND LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE INTO              
THUNDER BAY N OF ISLE ROYALE HAS LED TO MORE SIGNIFICANT LES                    
STREAMING S AND IMPACTING VERY SMALL AREAS OF FAR WRN                           
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. KIWD VCNTY HAS PICKED UP 3-4 INCHES OF              
SNOW TODAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE HAS BEEN LOCALLY MORE.               
AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION                  
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO A SW DIRECTION OVER WRN UPPER            
MI AND TO A WNW DIRECTION OVER ERN UPPER MI BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL               
SHIFT LINGERING LES N AND OUT OF GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. AT THIS            
POINT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION OVER THE WRN FCST AREA                  
TONIGHT DUE TO SHIFTING BANDS AND LOSS OF THE LAKE NIPIGON                      
CONNECTION. FETCH LENGTH WILL IMPROVE INTO THE KEWEENAW LATE TONIGHT            
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND BREEZES FOCUSING CONVERGENCE. EVEN                 
SO...UPSTREAM DRY AIRMASS AND LOW INVERSION AROUND 4KFT SHOULD KEEP             
LES IN CHECK WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH. TO THE E...THERE              
SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN LIGHT LES AS FETCH LENGTH INCREASES IN NW            
FLOW. AS FOR TEMPS...THERE WILL BE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS                
TO CRASH TONIGHT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING                 
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM. THEN                
ONCE SHARP SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS...RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY               
NOT DEVELOP DOWN TO THE SFC UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. MIN PRECIPITABLE               
WATER (ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR 25-35PCT OF NORMAL) PASSING OVERHEAD             
AT THE SAME TIME WILL ENHANCE THE COOLING POTENTIAL. LOCATIONS THAT             
HAVE A LIGHT SNOW COVER SHOULD SEE TEMPS TUMBLE TOWARD 0F. DECIDED              
TO LOWER TEMPS TO 0F AROUND THE TYPICAL COLD SPOT OF CHAMPION. WOULD            
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FAR W (KIWD TOWARD BERGLAND/MARENISCO)              
DROP JUST AS LOW WITH THE NEW FRESH SNOW COVER. HAVE ONLY GONE 5-10F            
IN THAT AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS THERE THIS EVENING.                     
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE THRU SCNTRL CANADA AND THE                   
DAKOTAS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT                   
REGIME. CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ARE HIGH...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE            
FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK DURING THE            
DAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LES SHOULD               
CONTINUE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH SW FLOW...LES WILL BE                 
MOSTLY BE OFFSHORE OF UPPER MI. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE TIP OF              
THE KEWEENAW WHERE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WRLY COMPONENT                 
-SHSN/FLURRIES TO CLIP THAT AREA.                                               
.LONG TERM (00Z SAT ONWARD)...                                                  
500 MB TROUGHING CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH            
NW FLOW BEFORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES IN TO THE AREA FOR SUN.             
NAM SHOWING SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH FRI             
NIGHT AND SAT WITH SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. NAM SHOWING SOME                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I285K SURFACES IN THE MID                 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FRI NIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE SAME THING ALONG              
WITH THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS                 
WELL. MOISTURE IS IN THE MID LEVELS HOWEVER...SO WILL GO SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE               
TIME TO SATURATE EXCEPT IN THE KEWEENAW WITH LAKE EFFECT GOING.                 
WHAT THIS WILL DO IS HELP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW BAND TO GET GOING AND COULD BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF            
THE LAKE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW SOMEWHERE NORTH OF HOUGHTON FRI NIGHT              
INTO SAT. A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM COULD SET UP WHICH WOULD HELP               
ACCUMULATIONS OUT. THE PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS WSW TO SW WHICH SHOULD            
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OFFSHORE OF THE                        
KEWEENAW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY SINCE IT COULD SNOW            
PRETTY HEAVILY FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM IN            
PLACE. COULD BE ADVISORY OR CLOSE TO IT...BUT THINK A SMALL ENOUGH              
AREA IS AFFECTED TO NOT GO WITH ANYTHING RIGHT NOW. THIS WILL HAVE              
TO BE WATCHED AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION. DID NOT                
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHERWISE. WENT CLOSE TO            
ADJMVR FOR TEMPERATURES.                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS 00Z MON WITH ZONAL FLOW                  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AT THAT TIME. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND                
AFFECTS THE CWA 00Z TUE. THE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA 00Z               
WED WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED. RIDGING                    
CONTINUES INTO 00Z THU AND 00Z FRI. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT               
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR                       
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. ALSO                
WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN EVERY PERIOD BUT SUN NIGHT AND WED                
WITH RIDGING FOR SUN NIGHT WITH FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND              
FOR WED WITH A SFC HIGH BUILDING IN AND LIGHT WINDS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUING BACKING TONIGHT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW NEAR KSAW. FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE AT CMX THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO             
LEFT PRECIP IN THE TAF THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS BECOME                
SW...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW COMES BACK INTO CMX. ALTHOUGH CMX MAY                 
FLIRT WITH MVFR CEILINGS EARLY...CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATIONS SHOULD            
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES SAT/SAT EVENING AS A               
TROF PASSES THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH AIRMASS STILL               
UNSTABLE OVER THE LAKE SHOULD SUPPORT LOW END GALES (AT A MINIMUM               
FREQUENT GALE GUSTS). ANOTHER LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W ON                
SUN COULD BOOST WINDS BACK TOWARD GALES AGAIN SUN AFTN/EVENING. HAVE            
ONLY INDICATED WINDS TO 30KT FOR NOW. NO GALES ARE FORESEEN FOR                 
THE REMAINDER OF THIS FCST PERIOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...TAG                                                                  
MARINE..ROLFSON                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
440 PM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AND EVOLUTION OF LES.                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF DOMINATING CENTRAL             
NAMERICA BTWN RIDGES OVER THE W COAST AND JUST OFF THE E COAST. AT              
THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE WRN PLAINS WITH A              
RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO ONTARIO. AIRMASS FLOWING INTO UPPER MI ON               
THE NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE IS VERY DRY. SFC DWPTS UPWIND OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR ARE AROUND 0F...AND 12Z RAOBS FROM KINL/CWPL SHOWED               
MEAGER PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. IN THE CASE OF            
KINL...THAT IS 25PCT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE DRY AIR               
HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE IMPACT ON LES DESPITE 850MB TEMPS                
AROUND -15C (PER EARLY AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDINGS)...YIELDING A                      
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 20C. NOTHING MORE THAN -SHSN/FLURRIES HAVE            
BEEN NOTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION. LONG FETCH COMBINED WITH                         
PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE NIPIGON AND LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE INTO              
THUNDER BAY N OF ISLE ROYALE HAS LED TO MORE SIGNIFICANT LES                    
STREAMING S AND IMPACTING VERY SMALL AREAS OF FAR WRN                           
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. KIWD VCNTY HAS PICKED UP 3-4 INCHES OF              
SNOW TODAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE HAS BEEN LOCALLY MORE.               
AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION                  
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO A SW DIRECTION OVER WRN UPPER            
MI AND TO A WNW DIRECTION OVER ERN UPPER MI BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL               
SHIFT LINGERING LES N AND OUT OF GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. AT THIS            
POINT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION OVER THE WRN FCST AREA                  
TONIGHT DUE TO SHIFTING BANDS AND LOSS OF THE LAKE NIPIGON                      
CONNECTION. FETCH LENGTH WILL IMPROVE INTO THE KEWEENAW LATE TONIGHT            
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND BREEZES FOCUSING CONVERGENCE. EVEN                 
SO...UPSTREAM DRY AIRMASS AND LOW INVERSION AROUND 4KFT SHOULD KEEP             
LES IN CHECK WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH. TO THE E...THERE              
SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN LIGHT LES AS FETCH LENGTH INCREASES IN NW            
FLOW. AS FOR TEMPS...THERE WILL BE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS                
TO CRASH TONIGHT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING                 
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM. THEN                
ONCE SHARP SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS...RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY               
NOT DEVELOP DOWN TO THE SFC UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. MIN PRECIPITABLE               
WATER (ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR 25-35PCT OF NORMAL) PASSING OVERHEAD             
AT THE SAME TIME WILL ENHANCE THE COOLING POTENTIAL. LOCATIONS THAT             
HAVE A LIGHT SNOW COVER SHOULD SEE TEMPS TUMBLE TOWARD 0F. DECIDED              
TO LOWER TEMPS TO 0F AROUND THE TYPICAL COLD SPOT OF CHAMPION. WOULD            
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FAR W (KIWD TOWARD BERGLAND/MARENISCO)              
DROP JUST AS LOW WITH THE NEW FRESH SNOW COVER. HAVE ONLY GONE 5-10F            
IN THAT AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS THERE THIS EVENING.                     
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE THRU SCNTRL CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS           
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME.                   
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ARE HIGH...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR                
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK DURING THE                
DAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LES SHOULD               
CONTINUE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH SW FLOW...LES WILL BE                 
MOSTLY BE OFFSHORE OF UPPER MI. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE TIP OF              
THE KEWEENAW WHERE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WRLY COMPONENT                 
-SHSN/FLURRIES TO CLIP THAT AREA.                                               
.LONG TERM (00Z SAT ONWARD)...                                                  
500 MB TROUGHING CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH            
NW FLOW BEFORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES IN TO THE AREA FOR SUN.             
NAM SHOWING SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH FRI             
NIGHT AND SAT WITH SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. NAM SHOWING SOME                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I285K SURFACES IN THE MID                 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FRI NIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE SAME THING ALONG              
WITH THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS                 
WELL. MOISTURE IS IN THE MID LEVELS HOWEVER...SO WILL GO SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE               
TIME TO SATURATE EXCEPT IN THE KEWEENAW WITH LAKE EFFECT GOING.                 
WHAT THIS WILL DO IS HELP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW BAND TO GET GOING AND COULD BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF            
THE LAKE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW SOMEWHERE NORTH OF HOUGHTON FRI NIGHT              
INTO SAT. A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM COULD SET UP WHICH WOULD HELP               
ACCUMULATIONS OUT. THE PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS WSW TO SW WHICH SHOULD            
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OFFSHORE OF THE                        
KEWEENAW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY SINCE IT COULD SNOW            
PRETTY HEAVILY FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM IN            
PLACE. COULD BE ADVISORY OR CLOSE TO IT...BUT THINK A SMALL ENOUGH              
AREA IS AFFECTED TO NOT GO WITH ANYTHING RIGHT NOW. THIS WILL HAVE              
TO BE WATCHED AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION. DID NOT                
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHERWISE. WENT CLOSE TO            
ADJMVR FOR TEMPERATURES.                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS 00Z MON WITH ZONAL FLOW                  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AT THAT TIME. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND                
AFFECTS THE CWA 00Z TUE. THE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA 00Z               
WED WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED. RIDGING                    
CONTINUES INTO 00Z THU AND 00Z FRI. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT               
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR                       
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. ALSO                
WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN EVERY PERIOD BUT SUN NIGHT AND WED                
WITH RIDGING FOR SUN NIGHT WITH FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND              
FOR WED WITH A SFC HIGH BUILDING IN AND LIGHT WINDS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO ONTARIO WILL MOVE E...               
CROSSING UPPER MI TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK              
LATE THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT TO A SW DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL            
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES OVER TIME. WILL CARRY FLURRIES                
WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING AROUND 3KFT AT KCMX UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE FRI.             
IT IS AROUND THAT TIME WHEN WINDS WILL FINALLY TAKE ON ENOUGH SW                
COMPONENT TO SHIFT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES N OF THAT AREA. AT               
KSAW...EXPECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS EVENING AS                
WINDS BECOME NW. BOTH SITES WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS ONCE               
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXIT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES SAT/SAT EVENING AS A               
TROF PASSES THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH AIRMASS STILL               
UNSTABLE OVER THE LAKE SHOULD SUPPORT LOW END GALES (AT A MINIMUM               
FREQUENT GALE GUSTS). ANOTHER LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W ON                
SUN COULD BOOST WINDS BACK TOWARD GALES AGAIN SUN AFTN/EVENING. HAVE            
ONLY INDICATED WINDS TO 30KT FOR NOW. NO GALES ARE FORESEEN FOR                 
THE REMAINDER OF THIS FCST PERIOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE..ROLFSON                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1236 PM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                     
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 400 AM EST)...                                           
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF            
IN CNTRL NAMERICA SANDWICHED BTWN RDG OFF THE W COAST AND OVER THE              
E. SHRTWVS ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF IN THE PLAINS/MS                  
VALLEY ARE CAUSING LO PRES OVER THE OH VALLEY...BUT THIS SYS IS                 
MOVING ENEWD WITH FORCING TO THE S OF THE CWA. FA IS DOMINATED BY               
COLD NNE FLOW BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN AND THIS LO PRES.             
ALTHOUGH THE NNE FLOW OVER THE UPR LKS/H85 TEMPS OF -12C/-13C OVER              
THE LK IS FVRBL FOR LES OVER THE SN BELTS OF THE NCNTRL...THE                   
INFUSION OF VERY DRY AIR OVER ONTARIO (SFC DWPTS BLO 0F) AS SHOWN ON            
THE 00Z YPL SDNG AND LACK OF CYC FLOW/LLVL CNVGC HAS SGNFTLY LIMITED            
LES AMTS EVEN OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. 00Z PWAT BLO 0.10                
INCH AT YQD/YPL...SO UPSTREAM AIRMASS UNDER THE ARCTIC HI IS QUITE              
DRY.                                                                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS AND TEMPS.             
FOR TDAY...SFC HI PRES RDG FM OVER SCNTRL CAN PROGGED TO BLD INTO               
THE UPR GRT LKS BY 00Z FRI...CAUSING LLVL FLOW TO BACK FM NNE THIS              
MRNG TO MORE NNW THIS AFTN. ARRIVAL OF EVEN DRIER AIR AS EVIDENCED              
BY INCRSG H925-85 DWPT DEPRESSION THIS AFTN AS WELL AS MORE ACYC                
FLOW/FALLING INVRN HGT (FCST TO 2K FT AT IWD BY 00Z) WL PRETTY MUCH             
END THE LES OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE DAY EVEN THOUGH H85 THERMAL               
RDG (-13C TO -14C) IS NEARLY OVHD AT 00Z. THE LONGER FETCH/NEARLY               
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE MIXED LYR OVER ERN LK SUP WL TEND TO             
MITIGATE THE DRYING A BIT...BUT FCST SDNGS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY EVEN            
AS LES SHIFTS ITS FOCUS TO AREAS E OF MQT BY 00Z. VARIOUS MOS FCST              
TEMPS ARE SIMILAR AND SEEM RSNBL FOR HI TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S              
TO THE LO 30S OVER THE SCNTRL. WHERE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES...WL TEND            
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE PER MIXING TO INVRN BASE ON GFS FCST              
SDNGS.                                                                          
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES FCST TO DRIFT INTO THE CWA TNGT. CONSIDERING             
THE DRYNESS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS THERE             
NOW...ELECTED TO GO BLO MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF AS                
THIS AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR REALLY LGT WINDS CLOSER TO THE HI            
CENTER FCST TO BLD INTO MO BY 12Z FRI. SOME LGT LES/MORE SC WL                  
PERSIST E OF MQT WITH LLVL FLOW SLOWLY BACKING FM NNW TO WNW DURING             
THE NGT. INFLUX OF DRY AIR/LO INVRN HGT IN THE 3-5K FT RANGE/                   
SHIFTING WINDS WL SGNFTLY LIMIT ANY ACCUM. MAINTAINED 30 POP OVER               
THE KEWEENAW AFT MIDNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCRSG MSTR/FVRBL CNVGC IN               
THE WLY FLOW OVER WRN LK SUP. BUT DRY AIRMASS WL NEGATIVELY IMPACT              
THIS BAND AS WELL.                                                              
ON FRI...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF DROPPING THRU SCNTRL CAN WL             
REACH NW ONTARIO/MN BY 00Z SAT. AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHRTWV IS            
TOO DRY FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...BUT APRCH OF SYS/DPVA/H85-5                 
QVECTOR CNVGC LATER IN THE AFTN MAY LIFT INVRN BASE OVER LES BAND               
OVER WRN LK SUP. BUT LLVL FLOW MAY ALSO BACK ENUF FOR BAND TO DRIFT             
AWAY FM ALL BUT THE NW CORNER OF THE KEWEENAW. ANY LINGERING LES                
OVER THE E WL END EARLY WITH BACKING LLVL FLOW. OTRW...THERE WL BE              
AN INCRS IN HI/MID CLD ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW IN THE AFTN. FCST                 
SDNGS SUG MAX TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO FRZG AT MOST INTERIOR SPOTS EXCEPT            
OVER THE SCNTRL AND E WITH SW FLOW ENDING LK SUP MODERATION.                    
SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF FCST TO SWING INTO THE UPR LKS FRI NGT...               
WITH VEERING LLVL FLOW SHOWN AFT MIDNGT. SO EXPECT LES BAND OVER                
MAINLY THE OPEN WATERS OF WRN LK SUP FRI AFTN/EVNG TO DRIFT ONSHORE             
DURING THE NGT...IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS N OF CMX WITH MORE 250-260              
FLOW. OTRW...ADDED 20 POPS TO THE REST OF THE FA AFT MIDNGT WITH GFS            
FCST SDNGS SHOWING SGNFT MOISTENING/UPR DVGC DESPITE LACK OF                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN DRY AIRMASS IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE (FCST PWAT ONLY             
ARND 0.33 INCH). SOME CONCERN FLOW MIGHT BACK ENUF TO ALLOW SOME                
MOISTENING OFF LK MI INTO THE ERN ZNS...BUT H925 FLOW PROGGED TO                
BACK NO MORE THAN 240 OR SO AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...NOT ENUF TO                   
WARRANT MENTION OF LES OFF LK MI.                                               
RISING HGTS/DVLPMNT OF MORE ACYC FLOW IN WAKE OF SHRTWV ON SAT WL               
ALLOW FOR DCRSG CLDS IN MOST PLACES W-E AFT LINGERING MRNG 20-30                
POPS. BUT SOME LES WL PERSIST ALL DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW IN EXPECTED             
WLY FLOW. NOT OUT OF QUESTION AN LES ADVY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AT                
LEAST KEWEENAW COUNTY FOR FRI NGT THRU AT LEAST SAT MRNG BEFORE                 
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/SINKING INVRN BASE/MID LVL DRYING                  
NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES THERE. THESE SHSN WL GRDLY END SAT NGT AS COLD            
AIR RETREATS INTO ONTARIO AND LK INSTABILITY WANES IN WAD REGIME.               
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO ONTARIO WILL MOVE E...               
CROSSING UPPER MI TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK              
LATE THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT TO A SW DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL            
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES OVER TIME. WILL CARRY FLURRIES                
WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING AROUND 3KFT AT KCMX UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE FRI.             
IT IS AROUND THAT TIME WHEN WINDS WILL FINALLY TAKE ON ENOUGH SW                
COMPONENT TO SHIFT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES N OF THAT AREA. AT               
KSAW...EXPECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS EVENING AS                
WINDS BECOME NW. BOTH SITES WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS ONCE               
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXIT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NO GALES FORESEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND REMAINS IN CONTROL              
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON                 
MONDAY.  STILL...WINDS TO ABOUT 30 KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE                 
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THAT NEXT TROUGH.  FOR             
THIS ISSUANCE THE MAIN CHANGE INCLUDED INCREASING AND TURNING THE               
WINDS MORE WESTERLY FOR SATURDAY EVENING.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
608 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSSION...                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF            
IN CNTRL NAMERICA SANDWICHED BTWN RDG OFF THE W COAST AND OVER THE              
E. SHRTWVS ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF IN THE PLAINS/MS                  
VALLEY ARE CAUSING LO PRES OVER THE OH VALLEY...BUT THIS SYS IS                 
MOVING ENEWD WITH FORCING TO THE S OF THE CWA. FA IS DOMINATED BY               
COLD NNE FLOW BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN AND THIS LO PRES.             
ALTHOUGH THE NNE FLOW OVER THE UPR LKS/H85 TEMPS OF -12C/-13C OVER              
THE LK IS FVRBL FOR LES OVER THE SN BELTS OF THE NCNTRL...THE                   
INFUSION OF VERY DRY AIR OVER ONTARIO (SFC DWPTS BLO 0F) AS SHOWN ON            
THE 00Z YPL SDNG AND LACK OF CYC FLOW/LLVL CNVGC HAS SGNFTLY LIMITED            
LES AMTS EVEN OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. 00Z PWAT BLO 0.10                
INCH AT YQD/YPL...SO UPSTREAM AIRMASS UNDER THE ARCTIC HI IS QUITE              
DRY.                                                                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS AND TEMPS.             
FOR TDAY...SFC HI PRES RDG FM OVER SCNTRL CAN PROGGED TO BLD INTO               
THE UPR GRT LKS BY 00Z FRI...CAUSING LLVL FLOW TO BACK FM NNE THIS              
MRNG TO MORE NNW THIS AFTN. ARRIVAL OF EVEN DRIER AIR AS EVIDENCED              
BY INCRSG H925-85 DWPT DEPRESSION THIS AFTN AS WELL AS MORE ACYC                
FLOW/FALLING INVRN HGT (FCST TO 2K FT AT IWD BY 00Z) WL PRETTY MUCH             
END THE LES OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE DAY EVEN THOUGH H85 THERMAL               
RDG (-13C TO -14C) IS NEARLY OVHD AT 00Z. THE LONGER FETCH/NEARLY               
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE MIXED LYR OVER ERN LK SUP WL TEND TO             
MITIGATE THE DRYING A BIT...BUT FCST SDNGS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY EVEN            
AS LES SHIFTS ITS FOCUS TO AREAS E OF MQT BY 00Z. VARIOUS MOS FCST              
TEMPS ARE SIMILAR AND SEEM RSNBL FOR HI TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S              
TO THE LO 30S OVER THE SCNTRL. WHERE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES...WL TEND            
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE PER MIXING TO INVRN BASE ON GFS FCST              
SDNGS.                                                                          
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES FCST TO DRIFT INTO THE CWA TNGT. CONSIDERING             
THE DRYNESS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS THERE             
NOW...ELECTED TO GO BLO MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF AS                
THIS AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR REALLY LGT WINDS CLOSER TO THE HI            
CENTER FCST TO BLD INTO MO BY 12Z FRI. SOME LGT LES/MORE SC WL                  
PERSIST E OF MQT WITH LLVL FLOW SLOWLY BACKING FM NNW TO WNW DURING             
THE NGT. INFLUX OF DRY AIR/LO INVRN HGT IN THE 3-5K FT RANGE/                   
SHIFTING WINDS WL SGNFTLY LIMIT ANY ACCUM. MAINTAINED 30 POP OVER               
THE KEWEENAW AFT MIDNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCRSG MSTR/FVRBL CNVGC IN               
THE WLY FLOW OVER WRN LK SUP. BUT DRY AIRMASS WL NEGATIVELY IMPACT              
THIS BAND AS WELL.                                                              
ON FRI...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF DROPPING THRU SCNTRL CAN WL             
REACH NW ONTARIO/MN BY 00Z SAT. AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHRTWV IS            
TOO DRY FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...BUT APRCH OF SYS/DPVA/H85-5                 
QVECTOR CNVGC LATER IN THE AFTN MAY LIFT INVRN BASE OVER LES BAND               
OVER WRN LK SUP. BUT LLVL FLOW MAY ALSO BACK ENUF FOR BAND TO DRIFT             
AWAY FM ALL BUT THE NW CORNER OF THE KEWEENAW. ANY LINGERING LES                
OVER THE E WL END EARLY WITH BACKING LLVL FLOW. OTRW...THERE WL BE              
AN INCRS IN HI/MID CLD ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW IN THE AFTN. FCST                 
SDNGS SUG MAX TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO FRZG AT MOST INTERIOR SPOTS EXCEPT            
OVER THE SCNTRL AND E WITH SW FLOW ENDING LK SUP MODERATION.                    
SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF FCST TO SWING INTO THE UPR LKS FRI NGT...               
WITH VEERING LLVL FLOW SHOWN AFT MIDNGT. SO EXPECT LES BAND OVER                
MAINLY THE OPEN WATERS OF WRN LK SUP FRI AFTN/EVNG TO DRIFT ONSHORE             
DURING THE NGT...IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS N OF CMX WITH MORE 250-260              
FLOW. OTRW...ADDED 20 POPS TO THE REST OF THE FA AFT MIDNGT WITH GFS            
FCST SDNGS SHOWING SGNFT MOISTENING/UPR DVGC DESPITE LACK OF                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN DRY AIRMASS IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE (FCST PWAT ONLY             
ARND 0.33 INCH). SOME CONCERN FLOW MIGHT BACK ENUF TO ALLOW SOME                
MOISTENING OFF LK MI INTO THE ERN ZNS...BUT H925 FLOW PROGGED TO                
BACK NO MORE THAN 240 OR SO AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...NOT ENUF TO                   
WARRANT MENTION OF LES OFF LK MI.                                               
RISING HGTS/DVLPMNT OF MORE ACYC FLOW IN WAKE OF SHRTWV ON SAT WL               
ALLOW FOR DCRSG CLDS IN MOST PLACES W-E AFT LINGERING MRNG 20-30                
POPS. BUT SOME LES WL PERSIST ALL DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW IN EXPECTED             
WLY FLOW. NOT OUT OF QUESTION AN LES ADVY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AT                
LEAST KEWEENAW COUNTY FOR FRI NGT THRU AT LEAST SAT MRNG BEFORE                 
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/SINKING INVRN BASE/MID LVL DRYING                  
NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES THERE. THESE SHSN WL GRDLY END SAT NGT AS COLD            
AIR RETREATS INTO ONTARIO AND LK INSTABILITY WANES IN WAD REGIME.               
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
500MB TROUGH WILL BE TEMPORARILY REPLACED WITH SOME RIDGING TOWARDS             
THE END OF THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT.  DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY               
WORK INTO BOTH CMX AND SAW...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE                
FROM TEMPORARY HIGH MVFR TO VFR.  STILL FIGURE DAYTIME HEATING TO               
COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS AT CMX                  
AROUND 21Z. SAW SHOULD SEE CLEARING TOO...MORE LIKELY AFTER THE                 
WINDS TURN NW WHICH LOOK TO OCCUR AROUND 01Z.                                   
MODEL WISE...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SEEMS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT                   
SCOURING OUT THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS.  HOWEVER THE MID DECK IS A                 
LITTLE DIFFERENT...WITH THE GFS CONTAINING MUCH MORE MOISTURE                   
BETWEEN 300 AND 500MB.  LOOKING UPSTREAM IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS IS A             
LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN THE LATEST SOUNDINGS FROM UPSTREAM...SO HAVE              
SIDED CLOSER TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NO GALES FORESEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND REMAINS IN CONTROL              
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON                 
MONDAY.  STILL...WINDS TO ABOUT 30 KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE                 
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THAT NEXT TROUGH.  FOR             
THIS ISSUANCE THE MAIN CHANGE INCLUDED INCREASING AND TURNING THE               
WINDS MORE WESTERLY FOR SATURDAY EVENING.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF            
IN CNTRL NAMERICA SANDWICHED BTWN RDG OFF THE W COAST AND OVER THE              
E. SHRTWVS ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF IN THE PLAINS/MS                  
VALLEY ARE CAUSING LO PRES OVER THE OH VALLEY...BUT THIS SYS IS                 
MOVING ENEWD WITH FORCING TO THE S OF THE CWA. FA IS DOMINATED BY               
COLD NNE FLOW BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN AND THIS LO PRES.             
ALTHOUGH THE NNE FLOW OVER THE UPR LKS/H85 TEMPS OF -12C/-13C OVER              
THE LK IS FVRBL FOR LES OVER THE SN BELTS OF THE NCNTRL...THE                   
INFUSION OF VERY DRY AIR OVER ONTARIO (SFC DWPTS BLO 0F) AS SHOWN ON            
THE 00Z YPL SDNG AND LACK OF CYC FLOW/LLVL CNVGC HAS SGNFTLY LIMITED            
LES AMTS EVEN OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. 00Z PWAT BLO 0.10                
INCH AT YQD/YPL...SO UPSTREAM AIRMASS UNDER THE ARCTIC HI IS QUITE              
DRY.                                                                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS AND TEMPS.             
FOR TDAY...SFC HI PRES RDG FM OVER SCNTRL CAN PROGGED TO BLD INTO               
THE UPR GRT LKS BY 00Z FRI...CAUSING LLVL FLOW TO BACK FM NNE THIS              
MRNG TO MORE NNW THIS AFTN. ARRIVAL OF EVEN DRIER AIR AS EVIDENCED              
BY INCRSG H925-85 DWPT DEPRESSION THIS AFTN AS WELL AS MORE ACYC                
FLOW/FALLING INVRN HGT (FCST TO 2K FT AT IWD BY 00Z) WL PRETTY MUCH             
END THE LES OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE DAY EVEN THOUGH H85 THERMAL               
RDG (-13C TO -14C) IS NEARLY OVHD AT 00Z. THE LONGER FETCH/NEARLY               
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE MIXED LYR OVER ERN LK SUP WL TEND TO             
MITIGATE THE DRYING A BIT...BUT FCST SDNGS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY EVEN            
AS LES SHIFTS ITS FOCUS TO AREAS E OF MQT BY 00Z. VARIOUS MOS FCST              
TEMPS ARE SIMILAR AND SEEM RSNBL FOR HI TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S              
TO THE LO 30S OVER THE SCNTRL. WHERE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES...WL TEND            
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE PER MIXING TO INVRN BASE ON GFS FCST              
SDNGS.                                                                          
SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES FCST TO DRIFT INTO THE CWA TNGT. CONSIDERING             
THE DRYNESS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS AND QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS THERE             
NOW...ELECTED TO GO BLO MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF AS                
THIS AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR REALLY LGT WINDS CLOSER TO THE HI            
CENTER FCST TO BLD INTO MO BY 12Z FRI. SOME LGT LES/MORE SC WL                  
PERSIST E OF MQT WITH LLVL FLOW SLOWLY BACKING FM NNW TO WNW DURING             
THE NGT. INFLUX OF DRY AIR/LO INVRN HGT IN THE 3-5K FT RANGE/                   
SHIFTING WINDS WL SGNFTLY LIMIT ANY ACCUM. MAINTAINED 30 POP OVER               
THE KEWEENAW AFT MIDNGT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCRSG MSTR/FVRBL CNVGC IN               
THE WLY FLOW OVER WRN LK SUP. BUT DRY AIRMASS WL NEGATIVELY IMPACT              
THIS BAND AS WELL.                                                              
ON FRI...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF DROPPING THRU SCNTRL CAN WL             
REACH NW ONTARIO/MN BY 00Z SAT. AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHRTWV IS            
TOO DRY FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...BUT APRCH OF SYS/DPVA/H85-5                 
QVECTOR CNVGC LATER IN THE AFTN MAY LIFT INVRN BASE OVER LES BAND               
OVER WRN LK SUP. BUT LLVL FLOW MAY ALSO BACK ENUF FOR BAND TO DRIFT             
AWAY FM ALL BUT THE NW CORNER OF THE KEWEENAW. ANY LINGERING LES                
OVER THE E WL END EARLY WITH BACKING LLVL FLOW. OTRW...THERE WL BE              
AN INCRS IN HI/MID CLD ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW IN THE AFTN. FCST                 
SDNGS SUG MAX TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO FRZG AT MOST INTERIOR SPOTS EXCEPT            
OVER THE SCNTRL AND E WITH SW FLOW ENDING LK SUP MODERATION.                    
SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES TROF FCST TO SWING INTO THE UPR LKS FRI NGT...               
WITH VEERING LLVL FLOW SHOWN AFT MIDNGT. SO EXPECT LES BAND OVER                
MAINLY THE OPEN WATERS OF WRN LK SUP FRI AFTN/EVNG TO DRIFT ONSHORE             
DURING THE NGT...IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS N OF CMX WITH MORE 250-260              
FLOW. OTRW...ADDED 20 POPS TO THE REST OF THE FA AFT MIDNGT WITH GFS            
FCST SDNGS SHOWING SGNFT MOISTENING/UPR DVGC DESPITE LACK OF                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN DRY AIRMASS IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE (FCST PWAT ONLY             
ARND 0.33 INCH). SOME CONCERN FLOW MIGHT BACK ENUF TO ALLOW SOME                
MOISTENING OFF LK MI INTO THE ERN ZNS...BUT H925 FLOW PROGGED TO                
BACK NO MORE THAN 240 OR SO AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...NOT ENUF TO                   
WARRANT MENTION OF LES OFF LK MI.                                               
RISING HGTS/DVLPMNT OF MORE ACYC FLOW IN WAKE OF SHRTWV ON SAT WL               
ALLOW FOR DCRSG CLDS IN MOST PLACES W-E AFT LINGERING MRNG 20-30                
POPS. BUT SOME LES WL PERSIST ALL DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW IN EXPECTED             
WLY FLOW. NOT OUT OF QUESTION AN LES ADVY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AT                
LEAST KEWEENAW COUNTY FOR FRI NGT THRU AT LEAST SAT MRNG BEFORE                 
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/SINKING INVRN BASE/MID LVL DRYING                  
NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES THERE. THESE SHSN WL GRDLY END SAT NGT AS COLD            
AIR RETREATS INTO ONTARIO AND LK INSTABILITY WANES IN WAD REGIME.               
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA CONTINUES TO DRIVE            
DRY AIR SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS DRY AIR               
HAS HELPED KEPT VISIBILITIES VFR AND CEILINGS HIGH MVFR TO VFR FROM             
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS MORE DRY AIR IS PULLED SOUTH ACROSS LAKE               
SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. IN                 
FACT...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR TO HELP                  
SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS AT CMX AROUND 21Z. SAW SHOULD SEE CLEARING               
TOO...MORE LIKELY AFTER THE WINDS TURN NW WHICH LOOK TO OCCUR AROUND            
01Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NO GALES FORESEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND REMAINS IN CONTROL              
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON                 
MONDAY.  STILL...WINDS TO ABOUT 30 KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE                 
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THAT NEXT TROUGH.  FOR             
THIS ISSUANCE THE MAIN CHANGE INCLUDED INCREASING AND TURNING THE               
WINDS MORE WESTERLY FOR SATURDAY EVENING.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
551 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TROUGH AXIS NOW MOVING ACROSS CNTRL ND. PLENTY OF RADAR ECHOES IN               
THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT THEY ARE MOSTLY ALOFT UNTIL ONE                
GETS FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE LOW SATURATION IS BETTER. STILL...A                 
FEW FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH EMANATING FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.                 
AS THE TROUGH MOVES SE...LATEST RUC BRINGS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL                
SATURATION TO AN RNH-RWF LINE BY 06Z...AND NAM BRINGS IT ACROSS                 
ALL BUT SC MN BY 12Z. SIMILAR CONSIDERATIONS AS IN PREVIOUS                     
DISCUSSION SUGGEST KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WELL A                     
COATING OF SNOW... MAINLY FROM WC MN ACROSS TO WC WISC.                         
ONCE TROUGH GOES BY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR                   
ABOUT THREE MORE DAYS. WITH BROAD WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AXIS TO OUR               
NORTH... AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST... MN AND WI WILL               
BE IN A PACIFIC FLOW PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED                
TO MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND WESTERLY        
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER MILD DAY. WOULD NOT                
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS IN WC/SW MN REACHING 50 DEGREES.                
REST OF AREA WILL BE INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. THE MAIN QUESTION IS               
EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.                                                
NEXT SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE WEDNESDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS               
DEPICT LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE                 
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...AT THE SAME TIME AS CANADIAN                
LOW SWINGS A TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. 12Z ECMWF IS A                 
LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 00Z VERSION WAS...AND THE 12Z RUN ALSO SHOWS           
A HINT OF POSSIBLE PHASING. ECMWF 850 MB LOW IS STRONGER AND A BIT              
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. INTERESTINGLY... THE 12Z                
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS THE 850 LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN THE                      
OPERATIONAL GFS DOES. HAVE CONTINUED POPS FOR MIDWEEK. SPAGHETTI                
CHARTS SOME SOME DISTRIBUTION IN THEIR SOLUTIONS BUT NOT AS MUCH                
AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN UPPER               
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS MINNESOTA. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH TO                 
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS               
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR                
CLOUD DECK...WITH LOWER END VFR CLOUDS ON ITS LEADING EDGE... MAKING            
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.                  
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO BEING OBSERVED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF KAXN              
AND KSTC WITH LOWEST VISBYS DOWN BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES AND LOWEST               
CIGS TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO TRANSLATE                   
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND AFFECT MINNESOTA SITES AND              
KRNH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN                     
CHALLENGE. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE LATER IN THE                    
EVENING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BUT PERIODIC REDUCTION IN SNOW                 
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE POSSIBLE.                 
MVFR CLOUDS MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR AS KEAU. SOME LIGHT SNOW                     
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT SHOULD              
NOT AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A DUSTING OR A TENTH OR 2. MVFR CLOUDS ARE              
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DECREASING                      
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE                
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS                  
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE AFTERNOON.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDK/MDB                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
548 AM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 AM CST THU NOV 22 2007/                               
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...IS THE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES AND                 
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS               
SHOWED CLOUDS HAD CLEARED OVER THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE STATE.             
850 MB TEMPS OF -15 DEG CELSIUS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE             
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WARM WATERS AND LARGE AREA LAKES OVER EASTERN               
HALF OF MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE               
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES              
OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA INTO LATE AFTERNOON.                                 
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH               
120 HOURS. THE UPPER AIRFLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST THRU SUNDAY                  
MRNG...THEN TURN MORE ZONAL AFTERWARDS.                                         
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40                 
DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                    
BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS KEEPS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST            
DRY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE                 
OVERALL FORECAST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
THE MORNING LOW CLOUD SCENARIO IS CAPTURE WELL BY THE 06Z NAM AND               
03Z RUC 900MB RH PROGS...WHICH REMAIN SATURATED THROUGH 18Z. THEREFORE          
EXPECT MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS TO PERSIST ACROSS TAF SITES INTO                
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL ALSO LINGER THIS                         
MORNING...ALTHOUGH NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.                    
NORTHERLY MORNING WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY THIS                    
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
505 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) LATEST                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE                   
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO STILL MOVING STEADILY SEWD WHILE A 1035MB                
HIGH CENTER IN SERN KS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS. CURRENT               
RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SHRA ALONG              
THE I-20 CORRIDOR RACING EAST AT 45 MPH AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                
CROSSES THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE             
OF REPORTS OF BRIEF WET SLEET MELTING ON CONTACT. WILL KEEP MENTION             
OF SPRINKLES ACROSS SRN MS THROUGH MID MORNING AS RUC/WRF SHOW THE              
PRECIP QUICKLY DRYING UP. EVEN SO...CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH            
MIDDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DRYING UP FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON.                   
SURFACE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE U30S TO L40S WITH WETBULBS HOLDING            
ABOVE FREEZING AS CAA SLOWED A LITTLE BY THE EXTRA PRECIPITATION.               
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BETTER DOWNGLIDE PREVAILS ALLOWING CLOUDS TO                
BREAK UP AS THE SURFACE HIGH(1034MB) BUILDS INTO SERN MO TOWARD THE             
OH VALLEY. SOME ADDITIONAL CIRRUS SHOULD STREAK TOWARD THE LOWER MS             
VALLEY UNDER A W TO E 120-130KT 200MB JET AXIS SET UP ACROSS THE                
GULF STATES BY TONIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY               
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINNING IN THE 300-315K LAYERS MAINLY                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT RAINS              
BREAKING OUT FROM SW CWFA TOWARD THE NE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                 
TIMING AND THICKNESS OF THESE CLOUDS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW              
COLD WE COULD GET SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM MAV MOS AS YET.                 
ON SATURDAY...UPGLIDE INCREASES WITH WIDESPREAD CONDENSATION                    
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF LESS THAN 2MB IN THE 305-315K LAYERS ACROSS THE            
ENTIRE CWFA. EXPECT STEADY RAINS OVER AT LEAST THE SW HALF OF THE               
CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE BOOSTED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM            
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF             
SHORTWAVES PROVIDING PERIODIC ENHANCEMENT OF UVV. WE COULD SEE NEAR             
1 INCH QPF AMOUNTS BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH            
MORE TO FOLLOW. /40/                                                            
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT STILL ON TAP FOR                
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...                                                      
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE LIKELY THAT SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY                  
RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND PERSIST                 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS OVER              
THE ENTIRE AREA...WHILE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE                       
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.              
WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT NOW WITH THESE AREAL DESIGNATIONS...BUT SEVERE            
WEATHER STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.                         
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE AND 06Z GFS ARE IN GOOD              
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW                        
CIRCULATION...TRACKING IT NEWD ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE SUNDAY NIGHT.            
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND SEE NO                 
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM IT AT THIS POINT. AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE                
TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY (850MB FROM 20KT TO 50KT AND               
850MB THETAE FROM ~320 TO 330+ DEG K) UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE                 
REGION OF A 120KT UPPER JET. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY MORNING                
(SHOWALTER INDICES ~ -2 DEG C) WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO                     
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGES NORTHWARD (BL LI -2             
TO -3 DEG C) ACROSS SRN AND ERN MS. WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION                  
SHOULD DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE               
MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR DISCRETE SFC-BASED TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON             
IN THE HBG-LAUREL AREA AS ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR BECOMES VERY                      
IMPRESSIVE (0-1KM 35-40KTS, 0-6KM ~45KTS). HOWEVER...EXPECT THE                 
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BECOME ORGANIZED AND LINEAR. WHILE 2-8             
KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO BE NORMAL TO THE APPROACHING COLD              
FRONT SUGGESTING CELLULAR CONVECTION...THEY ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE             
QUITE WEAK (< 8KTS). THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL            
CONVERGENCE IMPLIES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM               
COMPRISED OF OCCASIONAL BOWS AND LEWPS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GIVEN            
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...EXPECT THAT SIGNIFICANT             
WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MS WITH THE                  
GREATEST RISK BEING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR FORM HBG TO                
MEI...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER RISK NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ                 
TRACE. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS                
PORTRAYAL.                                                                      
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO               
FOUR INCHES EXPECTED AREA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MS              
RIVER APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GET LOCALLY HEAVIER              
TOTALS WHERE DEEP CONVECTION CAN PERSIST LONGEST. THE PROGRESSIVE               
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE AREA FROM EXPERIENCING                     
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE RAINFALL WILL WE WILL               
HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CONVEY                 
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN RISKS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICAL                    
PRODUCTS.                                                                       
BEYOND MONDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE                  
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS STRENGTHENED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE               
ENERGY DIVING SWD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF                
HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST DETAILS...SHOWING THE NEXT                
FRONTAL RAIN/TSTM EVENT SETTING UP IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME...AND              
THEN AGAIN DURING THE WEEK`S END. TEMPERATURES MAY FLUCTUATE QUITE A            
BIT...MORE THAN INDICATED BY MEX MOS GUIDANCE...GIVEN THE                       
OSCILLATING POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND VERY            
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL              
IS RECEIVED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN              
IN THIS SORT OF TROUGH-TO-RIDGE PATTERN.  HAVE THEIR OWN IDEAS ABOUT            
THE FORECAST DETAILS WITH THE GFS HOLDING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF             
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AND THE ECMWF INSISTING ON AN EARLIER ARRIVAL. IN            
ANY CASE...WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORMY TROUGH-TO-RIDGE             
PATTERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. /EC/                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOST AREAS CAN COUNT ON AT LEAST VFR MID LEVEL CEILINGS OF 6-9K FEET            
WITH LIGHT RAIN STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN THIRD OF MS THROUGH 15Z.              
THE SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE 16Z WITH CLOUDS                  
SLOWLY BREAKING FROM N TO S BY 20Z. N SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT             
10-15KTS MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. TEMPORARY                 
CLEARING OF CLOUDS FROM N TO S EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH NE WINDS              
5-10KTS. MORE CIRRUS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. /40/                           
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: 40                                                                  
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
344 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PERSISTENT STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN                
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...IT                
LOOKS LIKE FORECAST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE              
CWFA WILL BE SPOT ON.  CLOUDS SHOULD STICK IN MOST AREAS THROUGH                
06Z...THEN CLEAR OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH                 
12-15Z FRIDAY.  COOL AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE                 
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS             
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRAVERSES THE               
MIDWEST.                                                                        
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY INTERESTING AS A 500MB               
CUTOFF LOW EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
AND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO               
PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...SPREADING            
A LARGE AREA OF QPF OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI            
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA ON                  
MONDAY.  I HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THOSE PERIODS SINCE THE                
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT...BUT THE 22/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE            
RUN STILL HOLDS THE STORM BACK A BIT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SO I              
HAVEN`T INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS YET.  WOULD LIKE TO LET THE NAM                
CHEW ON THIS SYSTEM FOR A CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE RAISING POPS INTO                 
LIKELY CATEGORY.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE INDICATING THAT THE                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE CWFA...POSSIBLY ENDING              
AS SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  BUT WE`RE PRETTY CLOSE TO            
THE LINE.  WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS                   
FLIP-FLOP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW A FEW TIMES              
BEFORE THE STORM HITS.  KEPT PRECIP TYPE ALL RAIN FOR THIS PACKAGE              
SINCE THAT`S WHAT THE DATA INDICATES.                                           
AFTER THE STORM EXITS THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AND                  
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER COOL HIGH PRESSURE                    
SYSTEM.  THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE MID-MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY COULD AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT MIDRANGE                
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ONCE AGAIN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THIS                
SECOND SYSTEM SO HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.                                
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...AFTER CONSULTATION WITH OTHER OFFICES AND CWSU               
LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WIL HOLD ON LONGER THE EARLIER FORECAST. RUC              
KEEPS HIGH 850 MOISTURE OVR THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH 03Z                
WITH IT MOVING SOUTH. COU SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPORVE WITH VFR               
POSSIBLE BY 03S. HAVE KEPT MVFR CLOUD DECK FOR UIN UNTIL 06Z AND                
STL AND SUS UNTIL 06Z.                                                          
JPK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1225 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE 00Z SHORT-TERM MODELS (TIL SUNDAY)...ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT                
ON MASS FIELDS THRU THE NEXT 36HRS...BUT THEN DIVERGE ON HANDLING               
OF BREAKAWAY ENERGY FROM NEW SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN CONUS...AND HOW               
IT WILL MERGE WITH/BECOME IN-PHASE WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY. FURTHER              
DIFFERENCES ARISE...PRIMARILY WITH TIMING...ON STRONG SYSTEM TO                 
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SWRN CONUS SYSTEM EJECTS               
NEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. IN THE MEANTIME...LONGWAVE                
H500 TROF DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS THANKSGIVING DAY 2007               
WILL PERSIST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24-36HRS AND THEN RECEDE WHILE                   
SHIFTING EWD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A TRANSITIONAL...YET                   
ACTIVE...PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEK. AT THE                     
SURFACE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY RESULTING IN GRADUAL              
ABATEMENT OF THE WIND SPEEDS WHILE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES                   
ANTI-CYCLONIC THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH OR END THE                   
FLURRIES.                                                                       
P-TYPE THIS MORNING AFTER 12Z...IF ANY FALLS...SHOULD BE                        
OVERWHELMINGLY FLURRIES WITH CLOUD TOPS EXPECTED TO REACH TO -10C               
AND BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME ICE NUCLEI. THIS IS IN LIEU OF                     
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL THOUGH...PCPN COVERAGE WILL                
BECOME MORE AND MORE SPARSE AS ANTI- CYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN FROM               
STRONG CANADIAN HI PRES. TEMP RECOVERY TODAY WILL BE RATHER MEAGER              
GIVEN EXTENSIVE LO CLOUD ALREADY IN PLACE...AND REINFORCEMENTS ARE              
MOVING S FROM IA. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS ABOUT 5F. THIS                     
SUPPORTS FORECASTING AOB THE COOLEST MOS...AND SEEMS REASONABLE.                
STRENGTH OF COLD AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SUPPORTS                
A MIN TEMP FORECAST AOB THE COLDEST MOS...ESPECIALLY WITH CLEARING              
SKIES EXPECTED.                                                                 
MODELS DIVERGE ON HANDLING OF SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...WITH ITS TWO                 
DISTINCT PARTS. THE FIRST PART WILL BE A BREAKAWAY PIECE OF THE                 
SWRN CONUS SYSTEM THAT WILL TEMPORARILY BE CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN                 
FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...LATE FRIDAY NIGHT                
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS ONLY WITH THE MODELS THAT               
SHOW THIS PIECE OF ENERGY...NOT ALL DO. TWO SHORTWAVES WILL HELP                
TO CREATE CUTOFF LO OVER THE SWRN CONUS INITIALLY...AND GFS                     
HANDLING OF BREAKWAY ENERGY WITH THE FIRST PIECE SEEMS MORE                     
REASONABLE...AND NOTICED THAT THE 06Z NAM HAS COME MORE ON BOARD                
WITH THE GFS WHEREAS THE 00Z DID NOT. TWO MAIN FORCING MECHS TO                 
CONSIDER...WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH LEFT EXIT OF H300                   
SPEED MAX AND MID-LEVEL Q-VEC CONVERGENCE...BUT THESE BECOME OUT                
OF PHASE BEFORE THEY MOVE TO FAR INTO MO FROM THE W. AND BECAUSE                
OF THIS...THE ASSOCIATED LIGHT PCPN WITH THIS WILL FALL APART                   
BEFORE IT GETS TO THE FA AS DRY AIR ENTRENCHED AT THE LO LEVELS                 
WILL DELIVER THE FINAL BLOW. CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT A SNOW FLURRY                
OR SPRINKLE...BUT LOW ENOUGH PROB TO NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.                  
SECOND PART OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE MERGING OF NRN STREAM                
ENERGY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF                    
APPEARANCE OF ANOTHER SHOT OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT                 
ENTRANCE REGION OF H300 SPEED MAX AND ANOTHER AREA OF MID LEVEL                 
Q-VEC CONVERGENCE...BUT THE RAPIDLY EWD MOVING FORCING MECHS AND                
THE DRY AIR UNDERLYING THEM SHOULD PREVENT NEW PCPN DEVELOPMENT...              
ALTHOUGH AGAIN A SPRINKLE COULD NOT FULLY BE RULED OUT...GENERALLY              
S OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.                                                         
MOS BLEND USED ON MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...AND FAVORED THE COOLER                 
END OF MOS FOR SATURDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.                              
ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM...TO IMPACT THE AREA SOME TIME                   
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SWRN CONUS CUTOFF GETS EJECTED THRU THE                
SRN PLAINS AND THEN TURNS NEWD THRU THE LWR-MID MS VALLEY. TIMING               
ISSUES ABOUND...WITH A ROUGH CENTERING ON MONDAY. P-TYPE EXPECTED               
TO BE LIQUID WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                  
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...AFTER CONSULTATION WITH OTHER OFFICES AND CWSU               
LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WIL HOLD ON LONGER THE EARLIER FORECAST. RUC              
KEEPS HIGH 850 MOISTURE OVR THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH 03Z                
WITH IT MOVING SOUTH. COU SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPORVE WITH VFR               
POSSIBLE BY 03S. HAVE KEPT MVFR CLOUD DECK FOR UIN UNTIL 06Z AND                
STL AND SUS UNTIL 06Z.                                                          
JPK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ST LOUIS        39  26  42  30 /   5   0   0   5                                
QUINCY          35  20  40  25 /   5   0   0   5                                
COLUMBIA        37  20  41  27 /   0   0   0  10                                
JEFFERSON CITY  38  20  41  27 /   0   0   0  10                                
SALEM           39  24  42  25 /  10   5   0   5                                
FARMINGTON      39  21  40  24 /   5   0   0  10                                
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
959 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WITH IT               
SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY              
FROM THE REGION...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN...CHANGING ANY                 
REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS                 
CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH A FEW FLAKES POSSIBLE INTO NORTHEAST                    
PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP                     
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, AND BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO                     
UPSTATE NY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
HAVE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVE LACK OF                       
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED              
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE PRIMARY BATCH OF               
SHOWERS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...COLLOCATED WITH A                
GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FN CONVERGENCE. SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY                 
LOCATED NEAR BRADFORD AND SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS ELMIRA BY                        
NOON...AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS COOPERSTOWN BY MID AFTERNOON.                 
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE                        
CWA...WITH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY BEING THE CLOSEST TO ANY PTYPE                
ISSUES AT THE MOMENT. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM KITH TO                  
KSYR TO KRME HAVE BEEN STEADY THIS MORNING...AND SEE NO REASON FOR              
MUCH COOLING TO OCCUR UNTIL THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF YOUR LATITUDE.              
THEREFORE...HAVE DELAYED CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH ALL LOCATIONS                
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM. AFTER THIS                          
POINT...EXPECT THE CHANGE TO SNOW TO REACH AN ELM-ITH-RME LINE BY               
ABOUT 3-4 PM...BGM NEAR OR A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...AND AVP DURING               
THE EVENING.                                                                    
THE OTHER QUESTION TODAY WILL BE...IS THERE ANY PRECIP LEFT WHEN                
IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW. REGIONAL RADAR SUGGESTS VERY                    
LITTLE BEHIND THE DEVELOPING LOW...INCLUDING LOCATIONS LIKE                     
KBUF...WHICH ARE NEARING FREEZING AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...FEEL                
THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH NOT MUCH QPF TO SPEAK OF. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS                  
NORTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT THIS FRONT              
WILL BE GETTING A GOOD BOOST FROM STRENGTHENING UPPER DYNAMICS AS               
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER OVERHEAD.                         
HOWEVER...HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SCATTERED OVER NE PA AND HAVE A                 
FEELING THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY MAKE IT THROUGH THE DAY DRY.                    
HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW HOURLY TEMP DEPICTION OF OUR LOCAL                     
WORKSTATION WRF RUN...BUT HAVE NUDGED IT TO THE LATEST RUC                      
GUIDANCE WHICH HOLDS OFF THE COLD AIR JUST A BIT LONGER.                        
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS ARE ON THE STREET.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                 
310-FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A MODEST SNOW GROWTH                    
LAYER, DECENT LAKE CAPE, AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. WE EXPECT A BAND TO               
FORM AND EXTEND INTO ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES, WITH                        
PERIPHERAL ACTIVITY IN THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES. DIRECTLY UNDER                 
THE BAND, A 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY.               
THE FLOW SHIFTS A BIT ON FRIDAY TO A MORE 320-TYPE FLOW. OUR                    
SIMILAR SOUNDINGS DATABASE SHOWS THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS TO WIDEN               
OUT THE ACTIVITY, AND LESSEN THE INTENSITY TOO, DUE TO A POOR                   
FETCH. THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF THE FINGER                   
LAKES. A GENERALIZED INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH                 
OF UPSTATE NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. AS HIGH PRESSURE                     
APPROACHES, THE FLOW WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT LIGHT ACTIVITY INTO                     
NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY,                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL END THE LAKE ACTIVITY AND BRING FAIR WEATHER.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
SHRT WV LIFTS NEWRD IN THE SW FLOW AND PUSHES PCPN INTO THE AREA                
LATE MON OR EARLY TUE. TEMPS MRGNL BUT IT COULD BE COLD ENUF FOR                
SOME MIXED PCPN AT NGT...OTRW GNRLY LOOKING AT A WET SCENARIO WITH              
THIS SRN SYSTEM. GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR BHD THE SYSTEM BEGINNING                 
WED WITH SCT LE SNOWS SURE TO FOLLOW.                                           
GMOS TEMP GUID WAS CONSISITENT SO WAS FLWD. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE              
MADE TO THE OTR FIELDS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
FNTL BNDRY CUTS THRU THE FCST AREA THIS MRNG WITH VAST DFRNCS IN                
WX AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS. IN THE COLD AIR...STATIONS GNRLY IFR OR               
LIFR WITH STATIONS IN THE WRM SECTOR VFR. BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO                   
PUNGE SOUTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FLWG A WV MVG NEWRD AND WILL BRING              
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS COLDER AIR WILL GNRLY BE DRYER              
AND ALLOW CIGS TO RISE...XCPT IN SCT SNOW SHWRS. LE SNOW SHWRS AND              
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CUD LINGER THRU THE NGT IN ALL STATION OTR                  
THAN AVP.                                                                       
XTNDD PD WILL BRING GNRL VFR CONDS WITH HIPRES.                                 
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMA                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...DGM                                                                 
AVIATION...DGM                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1235 PM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON                
FROM WEST TO EAST REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY                   
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE                      
SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES              
SHAPE WHICH SHOULD AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY...FIRST LIGHT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS                    
DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND ANOTHER VERY LIGHT                 
PATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF COUNTY WARNING                
AREA. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND                  
NORTHERN FLORIDA HAS HINDERED THE MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR               
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A OPEN SLOT FOR MOISTURE BEHIND THIS                     
CONVECTION AND THE 13 UTC RUC IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS              
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS              
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RUC INDICATES THE LIFT WILL SHIFT               
TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON SO THIS MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF                   
RAIN. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE              
LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS FRONT MAKING IT TO THE COAST BY 06 UTC.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY          
WITH COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL               
BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN A BRISK                       
NORTHERLY WIND. THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THIS WEEK WILL PREVAIL FRI               
NIGHT WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK. SATURDAY WILL               
START OUT COLD...BUT BY SAT EVENING A TRANSITION WILL OCCUR AS                  
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT LOW LEVELS BRINGING IN WARMER                
MOISTER AIR THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS                 
LATE SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHC OF PCP. PCP WATER VALUES WILL              
BOTTOM OUT EARLY SAT AT LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT WILL               
RISE RATHER RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY REACHING AROUND AN INCH BY                  
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC               
COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP KEEPING A              
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC..BUT A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT                   
LOWER LEVELS BRINGING GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY BACK INTO THE LOCAL                 
AREA...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE GULF. LOW LEVEL                 
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS. THE LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTH                    
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE               
AREA ON MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO              
WED. OVERALL CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND                    
REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHC OF PCP AND                   
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DESCENT QPF UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY.              
WITH COASTAL TROUGH TO THE EAST AND COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO              
THE WEST ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY. FOR NOW WENT WITH                    
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WITH WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND               
60 AND COOLER TEMPS INLAND...REMAINING IN THE LOWER 50S.                        
COASTAL TROF PROGGED TO PUSH INLAND SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE                   
TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH MUCH WARMER AIR FOR                     
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED.                    
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK AS STRONG HIGH                
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS               
THE INLAND TAF SITES AROUND 01 UTC AND APPROACH THE COASTAL SITES               
AROUND 14 UTC. CEILING AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LOWER TO           
MVFR CONDITIONS.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL               
PASSAGE WITH A QUICK WIND SHIFT.                                                
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A            
GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM AND A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL LEAD            
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY INTO                
MONDAY. IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FOR SUNDAY             
AND MONDAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SOUTHWEST                
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS NEAR 20 KTS. SEAS ARE                  
RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT AT THE ONSLOW BAY BUOYS WITH 5.5 FT REPORTED AT               
FRYING PAN SHOALS. STILL HAVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COAST            
AROUND 06 UTC. LATEST RUC 10 METER WINDS INDICATES A LINE OF                    
INCREASED WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO              
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND GUST                
OF 25 TO 30 TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS LATEST RUN THE WIND SPEEDS ARE              
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS SO               
HAVE ADDED MARINE ZONE FROM MURRELLS INLET TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER            
IN THIS UPDATE.                                                                 
SHORT TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KNOCK DOWN SEAS TO BELOW SIX FEET      
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SEAS TO BELOW SCA. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-20              
KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH              
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.                                        
LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                             
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP ON SUNDAY INTO                     
MONDAY. FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE COASTAL                
TROF...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NE THROUGH SUNDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL              
FRONT/TROF LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND                
TO THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO                
BUMP SEAS UP MONDAY INTO POSSIBLE SCA.                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY          
     FOR AMZ254-256.                                                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RGZ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS                                                             
SHORT TERM...RGZ                                                                
LONG TERM...RGZ                                                                 
AVIATION...HAWKINS                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
313 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ...                 
CROSSING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNSET. BELOW NORMAL                         
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
THE 07Z RUC MODEL IS INDICATING A SUBTLE JET STREAM LEVEL SHORT                 
WAVE WITH SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION AREA. THIS               
AREA LIFTS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. A QUICK TENTH INCH               
OF RAIN POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGH 49 IN THE WEST PIEDMONT AND NORTH OF              
HIGHWAY 64 IN THE EAST...WITH GENERALLY LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH.                   
THERE HAS BEEN A RARE CLAP OF THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS.                       
ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT THIS                 
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT               
AT AROUND ONE TENTH INCH. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN EAST OF                   
INTERSTATE 95 AFTER SUNSET...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY.                        
TEMPERATURES EITHER HOLDING STEADY BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING OR               
MAKING A SLOW RISE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND STEADY SOUTHWEST BREEZE               
CONTINUES. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON                
HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY. A TEN DEGREE RISE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST                   
LOOKS CLOSE.                                                                    
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PLUNGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE              
CURRENT FORECAST OF 35 TO 45 DEGREES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STILL               
LOOKS GOOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS LARGELY UNCHANGED. SURFACE HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT AND SETTLE OVER                
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH                         
TEMPERATURES OF 45 TO 55 ARE FORECAST WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BELOW              
FREEZING.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH COLD               
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO                     
SETTING UP AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH WITH BROAD                     
CONFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF AND THE ATLANTIC. THIS LEADS              
TO LARGE SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF SATURATION               
AT VARIOUS TIMES AND LEVELS. POPS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR                    
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY            
NIGHT. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH           
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S MEANS SIGNIFICANT DIABATIC COOLING                  
POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FORECAST COLDER THAN GUIDANCE              
FOR MAXIMUMS...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT 34              
TO 40 AND HIGHS SUNDAY 41 TO 50. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEARLY                
STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                            
ON MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARD TO MOVEMENT OF DEEPENING LOW              
PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND DEGREE OF EROSION OF               
THE COLD AIR DAMMING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE FORECAST                  
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY IN KEEPING COLDER                   
MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND ONLY MODEST EROSION IN                
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE                 
MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES TO A MODERATE DEGREE WITH A              
SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST LIKELY NEAR THE SURFACE AND ASSOCIATED               
WIND SHEAR NEAR A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN                 
SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MAXIMUM                     
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST MONDAY MAY STRETCH FROM 50 NORTHWEST TO NEAR               
70 SOUTHEAST.                                                                   
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT            
FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS BENEATH A RIDGING PATTERN                
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN KEPT NEAR                         
CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE                
PATTERN BY DAYS 6 AND 7. BUT CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN WOULD                
FAVOR TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT                   
WEEK. -RFG                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY               
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING REACHING INT AND GSO AFTER             
09Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO              
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ABOUT 4SM. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY                
APPROACH MVFR THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SKIES BECOME                    
BKN-OVC030. THE MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH              
RDU AND POINTS EAST AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT RDU...RWI AND FAY                
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AFTER DAYBREAK AS             
30 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.            
ALSO EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON         
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING COLD               
FRONT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD AND            
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY              
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH                 
CAROLINA FROM 18Z TO 00Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR                      
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS.                    
DRIER AIR WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME MID             
AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ABOVE 5000 FEET. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                
IN ON FRI AND SAT SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.                                        
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL                   
PUSH MOISTURE NORTH OVERRIDING THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE                    
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS BY                  
SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY               
AND EVEN INTO MONDAY AS PERIODS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH ALL OF                     
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JO                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
904 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE                  
MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND PULLING MUCH COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.                
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE                
AREA ON FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ESE ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS             
TIME. CHANGE NEAR CLE AND MFD AND SHOULD SPREAD RAPIDLY OVER THE                
REST OF THE AREA THROUGH NOON.  DRIER PUNCH OF AIR AT MID LEVELS HAS            
CUT OFF MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP            
CURRENTLY IS LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF MAINLY SNOW MOVING ESE ACROSS                
NORTH CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  WILL USE UPDATE TO ADJUST                    
FORECAST TO BACK OFF ON LIKELY OUTSIDE OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SNOW                
BELT COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  REMAIN ON THE BUBBLE AS TO                   
WHETHER A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT GIVEN MAINLY LATE             
DAY AND TONIGHT EVENT INTO FRI MORNING CAN WAIT TIL 330 PM FORECAST             
TO ISSUE IF THINK ONE IS NEEDED.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...                             
FOR TONIGHT HAVE CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST                
AREA. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO LES DEVELOPING AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY                
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. ALSO WITH FALLING TEMPS ANY SNOW THAT IS                 
FALLING AFTER SUNSET WILL BEGIN TO STICK TO SURFACES AND IT IS AT               
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BEGIN. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT               
WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AND                      
SUGGESTING THAT ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY ON MIGHT BE MORE                     
WIDESPREAD BUT DO NOT THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL GET OUT OF CONTROL.              
FOCUS WILL BECOME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS                    
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LK HURON FETCH SETTING UP BRINGING SOME LE              
SNOWBANDS INTO PORTIONS OF NE OH AND THEN SHIFTING THEM INTO NW PA              
LATER ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ADVISORY                 
CRITERIA. SOME GOOD POINT ARE THE COLD H850S BUILDING OVER THE                  
AREA BUT AT SAME TIME PLENTY OF DRY AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA                  
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME SEE                  
SOME POSITIVES BUT ALSO QUITE A FEW NEGATIVES WHICH WOULD LIMIT                 
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF AN AT LEAST ADVISORY EVENT. THERE IS                 
THE CHC OF SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SEEING ADVISORY                
CRITERIA BUT DO NOT SEE ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL                 
ALSO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS SITUATION.                                       
AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY                
WOUND DOWN LES ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. BY THEN HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER OHIO VALLEY AND CONDITIONS WILL BE               
IMPROVING.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE                
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL                
AGREEMENT...LOCATION OF THE LOW ISSUES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD             
BE ALL RAIN. TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUESDAY BUT SOME                       
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN THE EXTREME EAST. IT TRIES TO GET COLD            
ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH ALOT OF RIDGING WILL TRY TO KEEP THE SNOW BELT            
AND THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.               
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
THE LOW IS NEAR YNG AT 12Z AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. USING                  
THE 1300 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FOR THE SWITCH TO SNOW FROM THE RUC              
MODEL. THE PRECIPITATION IS REALLY LIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA                  
EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE LOW. SO ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL               
BE LIGHT RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A             
LITTLE SLEET COULD OCCUR EAST OF TOL AND FDY THIS AM BUT IT WILL                
ONLY LAST FOR LESS THAN 30 MINUTES. THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN THE               
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND                 
NOT A REAL STRONG SHORTWAVE. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT               
TONIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE EAST. MVFR              
OR LOWER THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME VFR TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE              
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONTINUING EAST AND IFR IN                 
SNOW SHOWERS.                                                                   
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FRIDAY AND SOME                  
LAKE EFFECT WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST                
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE VFR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE                
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FOR EARLY IN THE                
WORK. THE WEEKEND WILL BE VFR WITH SOME NON VFR CONDITIONS                      
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEY             
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW GALE AND WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE THE SMALL               
CRAFT ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS SHOULD NOT GET HIGH ENOUGH IN THE NE               
FLOW THIS MORNING FOR ANY HIGH WATER CONCERNS ON THE WEST END OF THE            
LAKE.                                                                           
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL DECREASE. AS THE                   
HIGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AS              
THE LOW MOVES UP FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM             
THE WEST AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>149.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ABE                                                                  
NEAR TERM...ABE                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ADAMS                                                              
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
MARINE...KIELTYKA                                                               
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
707 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING               
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ONCE LOW PRESSURE                  
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES                   
EAST OF THE AREA MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGH               
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA                
ON FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
QUITE A VARIATION IN WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE                      
FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF                    
WOOSTER ACCORDING TO 09Z ANALYSIS. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME JUST               
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE LOWER 60S WHILE TEMPS JUST                   
BEHIND THE LOW AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS MARION IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST               
GUIDANCE ON REASONABLE TRACK AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BE JUST A BIT                 
FAST IN MOVING LOW INTO WESTERN PA OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.                 
THE TIMING IS RATHER CRITICAL AS ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING QUICK CAA               
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS LOW LATER THIS MORNING WITH H850 TEMPS                
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO. TEMPS ACROSS NW ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING              
ALREADY IN UPPER 30S AT TOL AND FDY.                                            
RADAR SHOWING SWATH OF RAIN FROM BJJ TO MFD SW TO CMH AT THIS                   
TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER               
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THAT KEPT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS              
EASTERN AREAS TO GET RAIN OUT OF THE AREA. OTHER AREA OF PRECIP IS              
ACROSS MI AND NRN IN AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT NW                  
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING SO CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS OUT WEST                 
ALSO. HOWEVER ONCE DEFORMATION PRECIP MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON                 
BROUGHT POPS DOWN TO CHC ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.                                  
FOR THE VARIOUS PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WORDED ZONES TO MENTION THE              
RAIN THIS MORNING CHANGING TO MIX RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THEN JUST               
SNOW SHOWERS ONCE COLDER AIR SETTLES OVERHEAD LATER THIS                        
AFTERNOON. ALSO JUST MENTIONED TEMPS FALLING TODAY ACROSS AREA AS               
MT VERNON LAST HOUR WAS IN LOW 60S WHILE MARION WITH IN UPPER 40S.              
SIMPLY PUT TREND WILL BE FOR FALLING TEMPS TODAY AREAWIDE.                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...                             
FOR TONIGHT HAVE CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST                
AREA. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO LES DEVELOPING AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY                
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. ALSO WITH FALLING TEMPS ANY SNOW THAT IS                 
FALLING AFTER SUNSET WILL BEGIN TO STICK TO SURFACES AND IT IS AT               
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BEGIN. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT               
WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AND                      
SUGGESTING THAT ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY ON MIGHT BE MORE                     
WIDESPREAD BUT DO NOT THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL GET OUT OF CONTROL.              
FOCUS WILL BECOME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS                    
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LK HURON FETCH SETTING UP BRINGING SOME LE              
SNOWBANDS INTO PORTIONS OF NE OH AND THEN SHIFTING THEM INTO NW PA              
LATER ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ADVISORY                 
CRITERIA. SOME GOOD POINT ARE THE COLD H850S BUILDING OVER THE                  
AREA BUT AT SAME TIME PLENTY OF DRY AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA                  
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME SEE                  
SOME POSITIVES BUT ALSO QUITE A FEW NEGATIVES WHICH WOULD LIMIT                 
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF AN AT LEAST ADVISORY EVENT. THERE IS                 
THE CHC OF SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SEEING ADVISORY                
CRITERIA BUT DO NOT SEE ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL                 
ALSO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS SITUATION.                                       
AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY                
WOUND DOWN LES ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. BY THEN HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER OHIO VALLEY AND CONDITIONS WILL BE               
IMPROVING.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE                
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL                
AGREEMENT...LOCATION OF THE LOW ISSUES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD             
BE ALL RAIN. TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUESDAY BUT SOME                       
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN THE EXTREME EAST. IT TRIES TO GET COLD            
ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH ALOT OF RIDGING WILL TRY TO KEEP THE SNOW BELT            
AND THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.               
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
THE LOW IS NEAR YNG AT 12Z AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. USING                  
THE 1300 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FOR THE SWITCH TO SNOW FROM THE RUC              
MODEL. THE PRECIPITATION IS REALLY LIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA                  
EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE LOW. SO ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL               
BE LIGHT RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A             
LITTLE SLEET COULD OCCUR EAST OF TOL AND FDY THIS AM BUT IT WILL                
ONLY LAST FOR LESS THAN 30 MINUTES. THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN THE               
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND                 
NOT A REAL STRONG SHORTWAVE. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT               
TONIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE EAST. MVFR              
OR LOWER THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME VFR TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE              
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONTINUING EAST AND IFR IN                 
SNOW SHOWERS.                                                                   
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FRIDAY AND SOME                  
LAKE EFFECT WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST                
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE VFR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE                
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FOR EARLY IN THE                
WORK. THE WEEKEND WILL BE VFR WITH SOME NON VFR CONDITIONS                      
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEY             
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW GALE AND WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE THE SMALL               
CRAFT ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS SHOULD NOT GET HIGH ENOUGH IN THE NE               
FLOW THIS MORNING FOR ANY HIGH WATER CONCERNS ON THE WEST END OF THE            
LAKE.                                                                           
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL DECREASE. AS THE                   
HIGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AS              
THE LOW MOVES UP FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM             
THE WEST AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>149.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ABE                                                                  
NEAR TERM...ABE                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ABE                                                                
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
MARINE...KIELTYKA                                                               
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1023 AM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT              
WAVE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST                   
TEXAS. LOW LEVELS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL               
ZONES STILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION...AND WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED                  
UPWARD MOTION AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN                 
THICKNESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE DROPPED                   
FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO NORTH                  
TEXAS.                                                                          
ALSO...RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR AREAS JUST SOUTH OF               
WICHITA FALLS AND VERNON. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST A               
FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH OF A LUBBOCK TO ABILENE                 
LINE...SPREADING EAST AND SLIGHTLY NORTH. NAM AND RUC MODELS ARE                
VERY SIMILAR IN BRINGING SATURATION DOWN TO AROUND 3 KM                         
AGL...SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 287. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GET LIGHT              
PRECIP TO THE GROUND. MAJORITY OF IT MAY FALL AS SNOW...BUT COULD               
SEE SOME WATER COATED SNOW GRAINS OR RAIN DROPS AS NEAR GROUND                  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  28  46  31 /   0  10  10  30                              
HOBART OK         43  27  45  31 /   0  10  20  30                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  30  48  35 /  20  20  10  20                              
GAGE OK           44  21  37  26 /   0  10  30  50                              
PONCA CITY OK     42  26  42  31 /   0   0  20  40                              
DURANT OK         46  35  51  34 /   0  10  10  20                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
933 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC H5 HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT                    
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS                         
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WHILE                       
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO PINCH OFF ACROSS                      
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION AS EXPECTED                   
COURTESY OF 90-100 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS                       
UTAH/NEVADA. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM                  
SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS EVIDENCED BY INCREASING                   
PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THIS LIFT SHOULD               
BE INCREASING FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW              
MEXICO PLAINS AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE               
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE DECIDED TO                  
INCREASE OVERNIGHT POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                    
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS...BETTER IN LINE WITH THE                  
CURRENT WSW PRODUCT. ALSO INCREASED POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH              
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE 12Z.                                                
WE HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST. COLD               
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE               
DAY...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE                     
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER LOW                 
DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO                
LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
INITIALLY SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE                   
MORNING...BUT DO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ACROSS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT DETERMINE IF A SNOW                
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT ONE MAY BE                  
NECESSARY FROM THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR TO THE PERMIAN BASIN                       
TOMORROW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED                   
AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES LOOK PROBABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO                 
AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS BY TOMORROW EVENING IN THE WINTER                   
STORM WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD               
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST                 
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA                       
     COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY                  
     COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.                        
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR              
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...                          
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...                   
     GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...               
     PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...                    
     SCURRY...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...                
     WINKLER.                                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST                 
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE                         
     MOUNTAINS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
751 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADDED BEAVER...OCHILTREE AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES TO THE SNOW ADVISORY.            
CALLS UP TO BEAVER REVEAL THAT THERE IS 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE                 
GROUND NOW. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT MORE SNOW IS                
HEADED TOWARD THIS AREA...THEREFORE THE SNOW ADVISORY.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE           
SAME AREA. SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE               
SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH THE           
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAM MOVING OVER SHOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL           
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. 1 TO 3 INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE              
EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND                  
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO             
ADRIAN.                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO                
GENERATED BY A S/WV TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXPECT THIS            
AREA OF SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. THUS INSERTED PREVAILING        
LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS INITIALLY. APPEARS THE BEST                
FRONTOGENICAL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES                
WHERE CIGS CAN DETERIORATE TO IFR. DID ALSO MENTION IFR CIGS AT KAMA IN         
A TEMPO GROUP DUE TO A 90 KT JET STREAK THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE                
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. POINT FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A              
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF FREEZING           
FOG ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER 12Z...EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END            
AS THE S/WV PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE LIFT DIMINISHES. CONFIDENCE IN           
CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY IS RATHER LOW...SO HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS             
FROM 13Z ON.                                                                    
CLK                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FEW HOUR           
WINDOW WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW FALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.             
WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO           
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES...WITH ABQ RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW MOVING            
EAST ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN TO END THE                
PRECIP OVER THE PANHANDLES...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR DRIER             
AIR TO PREVAIL AFTER 00Z. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THE BAND OF            
SNOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS ABLE TO TRAVEL BEFORE BEING CONFIDENT           
IN EXTENDING THE SNOW ADVISORY. MODELS INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT             
WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE              
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. FRONT MAY ACT AS A NEW SOURCE FOR LIFT...BUT                
AIRMASS IS DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT ADVISORY           
TO PLAY OUT UNTIL 00Z...AND WILL NOT EXTEND IN TIME FOR NOW. COULD              
STILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SO LEFT THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS IN               
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.                                                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND SFC MOISTURE. APPEARS             
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WHILE DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY            
DECREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST             
PANHANDLES BY 12Z...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. SO            
LIKEWISE KEPT THE LOWEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NW. INSERTED MENTION OF               
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBS HAVE             
PERIODICALLY REPORTED FOG AND THINKING THE AIRMASS WILL NEAR                    
SATURATION AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DECREASE. NOT CONFIDENT ON DENSE                  
FOG HOWEVER. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z           
SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO SAMPLE THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH THE SNOW            
AND CLOUD CONTAMINATION TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT                
THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE SOME WHAT TOMORROW AND WIND SPEEDS           
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT AT 10 TO 15KT. SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR IF           
NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TOMORROW. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR           
SNOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EARLY                   
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. MODELS STILL A BIT UNSURE ON THE SOUTHERLY            
PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...BUT THE GFS AND NAM DO HINT AT              
LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 18Z. INSERTED A THIN ROW OF SLIGHT             
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHER TEXAS PANHANDLE. AFTER THAT...THE                 
MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH THE 12Z                   
RUNS...THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER SHOWING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND WESTERN            
TRACK. IN ADDITION...THE NAM PAINTS SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO THE            
EASTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE GFS/EURO/AND UKMET PULL            
THE LOW MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO...DECIDED TO INSERT NON                  
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE EAST BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE NAM.               
A WARMING TREND COULD THEN BE IN THE WORKS FOR MONDAY AND                       
TUESDAY...IF MID 50S ARE CONSIDERED WARM. NONETHELESS...WITH THE                
UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST...AND THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE              
PANHANDLES...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS               
INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. UPPER FLOW             
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED                
PROVIDING SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW. MEX WAS SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR                     
60. FELT THAT MIGHT BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC SO WENT WITH MID 50S AREA               
WIDE. A STRONGER FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.             
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT TO BE DRY...SO BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE               
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR. APPEAR THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTH OUT OF             
THE GULF OF ALASKA. SO AT THIS POINT...DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE MEX            
AS IT HAD REASONABLE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE THURSDAY FRIDAY TIME FRAME.             
LAST MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE THE POPS FROM THURSDAY. MODELS ARE              
COMING IN DRY WITH THE LATEST RUNS...AND SEEM TO BE PUSHING THE                 
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BACK WITH EACH RUN. SO INSERTED SOME 10 POPS FOR             
THE DAY 7 AND 8 TIME FRAME...AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE NEXT RUN             
HAS IN STORE.                                                                   
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...                     
     HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...                     
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.                                       
OK...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
649 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE           
SAME AREA. SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE               
SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH THE           
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAM MOVING OVER SHOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL           
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. 1 TO 3 INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE              
EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND                  
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO             
ADRIAN.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO                
GENERATED BY A S/WV TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXPECT THIS            
AREA OF SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. THUS INSERTED PREVAILING        
LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS INITIALLY. APPEARS THE BEST                
FRONTOGENICAL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES                
WHERE CIGS CAN DETERIORATE TO IFR. DID ALSO MENTION IFR CIGS AT KAMA IN         
A TEMPO GROUP DUE TO A 90 KT JET STREAK THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE                
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. POINT FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A              
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF FREEZING           
FOG ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER 12Z...EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END            
AS THE S/WV PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE LIFT DIMINISHES. CONFIDENCE IN           
CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY IS RATHER LOW...SO HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS             
FROM 13Z ON.                                                                    
CLK                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FEW HOUR           
WINDOW WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW FALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.             
WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO           
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES...WITH ABQ RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW MOVING            
EAST ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN TO END THE                
PRECIP OVER THE PANHANDLES...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR DRIER             
AIR TO PREVAIL AFTER 00Z. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THE BAND OF            
SNOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS ABLE TO TRAVEL BEFORE BEING CONFIDENT           
IN EXTENDING THE SNOW ADVISORY. MODELS INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT             
WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE              
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. FRONT MAY ACT AS A NEW SOURCE FOR LIFT...BUT                
AIRMASS IS DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT ADVISORY           
TO PLAY OUT UNTIL 00Z...AND WILL NOT EXTEND IN TIME FOR NOW. COULD              
STILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SO LEFT THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS IN               
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.                                                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND SFC MOISTURE. APPEARS             
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WHILE DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY            
DECREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST             
PANHANDLES BY 12Z...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. SO            
LIKEWISE KEPT THE LOWEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NW. INSERTED MENTION OF               
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBS HAVE             
PERIODICALLY REPORTED FOG AND THINKING THE AIRMASS WILL NEAR                    
SATURATION AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DECREASE. NOT CONFIDENT ON DENSE                  
FOG HOWEVER. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z           
SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO SAMPLE THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH THE SNOW            
AND CLOUD CONTAMINATION TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT                
THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE SOME WHAT TOMORROW AND WIND SPEEDS           
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT AT 10 TO 15KT. SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR IF           
NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TOMORROW. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR           
SNOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EARLY                   
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. MODELS STILL A BIT UNSURE ON THE SOUTHERLY            
PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...BUT THE GFS AND NAM DO HINT AT              
LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 18Z. INSERTED A THIN ROW OF SLIGHT             
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHER TEXAS PANHANDLE. AFTER THAT...THE                 
MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH THE 12Z                   
RUNS...THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER SHOWING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND WESTERN            
TRACK. IN ADDITION...THE NAM PAINTS SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO THE            
EASTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE GFS/EURO/AND UKMET PULL            
THE LOW MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO...DECIDED TO INSERT NON                  
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE EAST BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE NAM.               
A WARMING TREND COULD THEN BE IN THE WORKS FOR MONDAY AND                       
TUESDAY...IF MID 50S ARE CONSIDERED WARM. NONETHELESS...WITH THE                
UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST...AND THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE              
PANHANDLES...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS               
INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. UPPER FLOW             
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED                
PROVIDING SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW. MEX WAS SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR                     
60. FELT THAT MIGHT BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC SO WENT WITH MID 50S AREA               
WIDE. A STRONGER FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.             
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT TO BE DRY...SO BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE               
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR. APPEAR THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTH OUT OF             
THE GULF OF ALASKA. SO AT THIS POINT...DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE MEX            
AS IT HAD REASONABLE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE THURSDAY FRIDAY TIME FRAME.             
LAST MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE THE POPS FROM THURSDAY. MODELS ARE              
COMING IN DRY WITH THE LATEST RUNS...AND SEEM TO BE PUSHING THE                 
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BACK WITH EACH RUN. SO INSERTED SOME 10 POPS FOR             
THE DAY 7 AND 8 TIME FRAME...AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE NEXT RUN             
HAS IN STORE.                                                                   
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...                     
     HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...                
     SHERMAN.                                                                   
OK...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
616 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO                
GENERATED BY A S/WV TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXPECT THIS            
AREA OF SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. THUS INSERTED PREVAILING        
LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS INITIALLY. APPEARS THE BEST                
FRONTOGENICAL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES                
WHERE CIGS CAN DETERIORATE TO IFR. DID ALSO MENTION IFR CIGS AT KAMA IN         
A TEMPO GROUP DUE TO A 90 KT JET STREAK THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE                
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. POINT FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A              
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF FREEZING           
FOG ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER 12Z...EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END            
AS THE S/WV PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE LIFT DIMINISHES. CONFIDENCE IN           
CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY IS RATHER LOW...SO HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS             
FROM 13Z ON.                                                                    
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FEW HOUR           
WINDOW WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW FALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.             
WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO           
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES...WITH ABQ RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW MOVING            
EAST ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN TO END THE                
PRECIP OVER THE PANHANDLES...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR DRIER             
AIR TO PREVAIL AFTER 00Z. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THE BAND OF            
SNOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS ABLE TO TRAVEL BEFORE BEING CONFIDENT           
IN EXTENDING THE SNOW ADVISORY. MODELS INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT             
WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE              
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. FRONT MAY ACT AS A NEW SOURCE FOR LIFT...BUT                
AIRMASS IS DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT ADVISORY           
TO PLAY OUT UNTIL 00Z...AND WILL NOT EXTEND IN TIME FOR NOW. COULD              
STILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SO LEFT THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS IN               
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.                                                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND SFC MOISTURE. APPEARS             
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WHILE DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY            
DECREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST             
PANHANDLES BY 12Z...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. SO            
LIKEWISE KEPT THE LOWEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NW. INSERTED MENTION OF               
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBS HAVE             
PERIODICALLY REPORTED FOG AND THINKING THE AIRMASS WILL NEAR                    
SATURATION AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DECREASE. NOT CONFIDENT ON DENSE                  
FOG HOWEVER. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z           
SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO SAMPLE THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH THE SNOW            
AND CLOUD CONTAMINATION TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT                
THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE SOME WHAT TOMORROW AND WIND SPEEDS           
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT AT 10 TO 15KT. SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR IF           
NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TOMORROW. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR           
SNOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EARLY                   
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. MODELS STILL A BIT UNSURE ON THE SOUTHERLY            
PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...BUT THE GFS AND NAM DO HINT AT              
LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 18Z. INSERTED A THIN ROW OF SLIGHT             
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHER TEXAS PANHANDLE. AFTER THAT...THE                 
MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH THE 12Z                   
RUNS...THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER SHOWING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND WESTERN            
TRACK. IN ADDITION...THE NAM PAINTS SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO THE            
EASTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE GFS/EURO/AND UKMET PULL            
THE LOW MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO...DECIDED TO INSERT NON                  
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE EAST BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE NAM.               
A WARMING TREND COULD THEN BE IN THE WORKS FOR MONDAY AND                       
TUESDAY...IF MID 50S ARE CONSIDERED WARM. NONETHELESS...WITH THE                
UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST...AND THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE              
PANHANDLES...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS               
INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. UPPER FLOW             
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED                
PROVIDING SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW. MEX WAS SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR                     
60. FELT THAT MIGHT BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC SO WENT WITH MID 50S AREA               
WIDE. A STRONGER FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.             
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT TO BE DRY...SO BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE               
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR. APPEAR THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTH OUT OF             
THE GULF OF ALASKA. SO AT THIS POINT...DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE MEX            
AS IT HAD REASONABLE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE THURSDAY FRIDAY TIME FRAME.             
LAST MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE THE POPS FROM THURSDAY. MODELS ARE              
COMING IN DRY WITH THE LATEST RUNS...AND SEEM TO BE PUSHING THE                 
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BACK WITH EACH RUN. SO INSERTED SOME 10 POPS FOR             
THE DAY 7 AND 8 TIME FRAME...AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE NEXT RUN             
HAS IN STORE.                                                                   
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...                     
     HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...                
     SHERMAN.                                                                   
OK...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
349 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FEW HOUR           
WINDOW WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW FALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.             
WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO           
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES...WITH ABQ RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW MOVING            
EAST ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN TO END THE                
PRECIP OVER THE PANHANDLES...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR DRIER             
AIR TO PREVAIL AFTER 00Z. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THE BAND OF            
SNOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS ABLE TO TRAVEL BEFORE BEING CONFIDENT           
IN EXTENDING THE SNOW ADVISORY. MODELS INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT             
WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE              
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. FRONT MAY ACT AS A NEW SOURCE FOR LIFT...BUT                
AIRMASS IS DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT ADVISORY           
TO PLAY OUT UNTIL 00Z...AND WILL NOT EXTEND IN TIME FOR NOW. COULD              
STILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SO LEFT THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS IN               
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.                                                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND SFC MOISTURE. APPEARS             
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WHILE DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY            
DECREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST             
PANHANDLES BY 12Z...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. SO            
LIKEWISE KEPT THE LOWEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NW. INSERTED MENTION OF               
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBS HAVE             
PERIODICALLY REPORTED FOG AND THINKING THE AIRMASS WILL NEAR                    
SATURATION AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DECREASE. NOT CONFIDENT ON DENSE                  
FOG HOWEVER. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z           
SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO SAMPLE THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH THE SNOW            
AND CLOUD CONTAMINATION TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT                
THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE SOME WHAT TOMORROW AND WIND SPEEDS           
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT AT 10 TO 15KT. SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR IF           
NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TOMORROW. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR           
SNOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EARLY                   
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. MODELS STILL A BIT UNSURE ON THE SOUTHERLY            
PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...BUT THE GFS AND NAM DO HINT AT              
LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 18Z. INSERTED A THIN ROW OF SLIGHT             
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHER TEXAS PANHANDLE. AFTER THAT...THE                 
MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH THE 12Z                   
RUNS...THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER SHOWING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND WESTERN            
TRACK. IN ADDITION...THE NAM PAINTS SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO THE            
EASTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE GFS/EURO/AND UKMET PULL            
THE LOW MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO...DECIDED TO INSERT NON                  
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE EAST BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE NAM.               
A WARMING TREND COULD THEN BE IN THE WORKS FOR MONDAY AND                       
TUESDAY...IF MID 50S ARE CONSIDERED WARM. NONETHELESS...WITH THE                
UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST...AND THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE              
PANHANDLES...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS               
INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. UPPER FLOW             
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED                
PROVIDING SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW. MEX WAS SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR                     
60. FELT THAT MIGHT BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC SO WENT WITH MID 50S AREA               
WIDE. A STRONGER FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.             
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT TO BE DRY...SO BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE               
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR. APPEAR THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTH OUT OF             
THE GULF OF ALASKA. SO AT THIS POINT...DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE MEX            
AS IT HAD REASONABLE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE THURSDAY FRIDAY TIME FRAME.             
LAST MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE THE POPS FROM THURSDAY. MODELS ARE              
COMING IN DRY WITH THE LATEST RUNS...AND SEEM TO BE PUSHING THE                 
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BACK WITH EACH RUN. SO INSERTED SOME 10 POPS FOR             
THE DAY 7 AND 8 TIME FRAME...AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE NEXT RUN             
HAS IN STORE.                                                                   
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                22  34  23  40  26 /  40  30   0   0   0             
BEAVER OK                  22  37  25  44  24 /  50  10   5   5   0             
BOISE CITY OK              19  34  19  46  25 /  40  10   0   0   0             
BORGER TX                  25  37  25  44  29 /  40  20   0   0   0             
BOYS RANCH TX              24  35  19  45  23 /  40  20   0   0   0             
CANYON TX                  23  35  21  43  25 /  50  30   0   0   0             
CLARENDON TX               24  34  27  41  31 /  40  30  10  10   5             
DALHART TX                 21  35  18  44  22 /  40  10   0   0   0             
GUYMON OK                  21  34  19  48  23 /  50  10   0   0   0             
HEREFORD TX                24  35  20  45  26 /  50  30   0   0   0             
LIPSCOMB TX                24  38  25  43  23 /  50  10  10  10  10             
PAMPA TX                   23  34  26  41  30 /  40  20   5   5   5             
SHAMROCK TX                25  36  27  43  27 /  40  20  10  10  10             
WELLINGTON TX              26  36  28  42  28 /  40  20  10  10  10             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...                         
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...               
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.                                                         
OK...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1154 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW HAS SLID              
SOUTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD              
AHEAD OF THE S/WV TROUGH THAT IS GENERATING -SN ACROSS PRTNS OF NEW             
MEXICO. LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERNIGHT AND ENTER             
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES FRI MORNING. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE           
TO INDICATE THE COLUMN MOISTENING BY THE AFTERNOON SO INSERTED -SN AT           
ALL THREE TERMINALS. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS AS MODELS                
SHOWING THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL                 
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND          
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY FRI AFTERNOON.                                   
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH            
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS DISTURBANCE HAVE EXITED THE                 
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MORE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE           
WEST SHORTLY AS OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. DRY AIR AND THE                
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP VERY            
QUICKLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN              
THE LOW 20S IN SEVERAL SPOTS. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT            
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE             
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. FEEL THE COLDEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE                
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES AROUND BEAVER AND LIPSCOMB AS THIS WILL BE              
THE LAST AREA TO BEGIN CLOUDING OVER AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS FURTHER               
WEST WILL NOT GET AS COLD AND MAY REACH THE FORECAST LOWS WITHIN THE            
NEXT FEW HOURS AND HOLD STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS             
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO MOVE IN. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO              
CLOUD COVER AS WELL. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.             
KIMBLE/GOEHRING                                                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS FCST IS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW               
OVER THE PANHANDLES FRI. CURRENT WV IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS UPPER LOW             
OVER NEVADA WHILE RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A S/WV TROUGH MOVING             
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN             
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. KEPT -SHSN OUT            
OF THE THREE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS THE LLVLS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.             
HOWEVER BY FRI MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL HEAD INTO THE FOUR                  
CORNERS REGION. ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS                
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRI AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL           
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...INCREASING THE MOISTURE RETURN IN THE            
LLVLS ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP             
SLOWLY. REGARDLESS FEEL ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND GIVEN               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...INSERTED PROB GROUPS FOR -SHSN AT ALL THREE                 
TERMINALS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.                                
CLK                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT A WHITE THANKSGIVING WILL            
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR. ALTHOUGH SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE            
THAT COULD REACH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE MIDNIGHT SO LEFT THE                
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TONIGHT. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE STILL                 
LINGERING WITH DEW POINTS GENLY IN THE TEENS. SO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD            
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.                       
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE NEVADA AND              
CALIFORNIA BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE                 
ENERGY FROM THIS LOW WILL DISLODGE FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND MOVE INTO           
THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW MORNING. A BIT CONCERNED WITH SFC MOISTURE              
VALUES AND WORRIED THAT MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY           
THOUGHT. NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ABOVE THE               
SURFACE THAT WILL MIX DOWN SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS             
THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME WILL HOLD THE             
BEST SHOT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STARTING TO               
DRAG THE UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH. SO THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL RELY             
HEAVILY ON THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES                 
FRIDAY. NAM IS STILL A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS/EURO...BUT NOW PAINTS             
BORDERLINE ADVISORY SNOWFALL FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.           
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE A SIMILAR ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ON               
FRIDAY. SO STILL FEEL THAT 40 TO 50 POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BUT HESITANT TO          
GO MUCH HIGHER. WILL ONCE AGAIN GO WITH AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SNOW                
AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...AND HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY BASED            
ON THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ADVISORY SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE.           
THE NAM FAVORS THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE GFS LEANS TOWARD             
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA...AND THE EURO PAINTS A BULLSEYE ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...TRENDED WITH A BLEND OF THE           
MAV GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR THE TEMP GRIDS.                             
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GFS AND EURO ARE NOW TAKING THE LOW FURTHER                
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COULD MEAN A MORE ABRUPT END TO THE              
PRECIP THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CURRENT GRIDS LINGER PRECIP INTO                
SATURDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. WITH              
THE DEEPER AND SLOWER TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...ANY UPPER RIDGING WILL           
BE BRIEF. IN FACT...GFS NOW INDICATES ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND COOL AIR           
DUMP INTO THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. COOLED OFF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY A              
FEW DEGREES AND CONTINUED THE COOLER TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE              
WEEK. GFS AND EURO BOTH SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPING FOR THE DAY           
6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. MODELS TAKE THE LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND STILL             
PAINT PRECIP OVER THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. SO BIGGEST CHANGE TO              
THE PACKAGE WAS TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.             
HAPPY THANKSGIVING.                                                             
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
804 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH            
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS DISTURBANCE HAVE EXITED THE                 
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MORE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE           
WEST SHORTLY AS OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. DRY AIR AND THE                
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP VERY            
QUICKLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN              
THE LOW 20S IN SEVERAL SPOTS. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT            
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE             
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. FEEL THE COLDEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE                
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES AROUND BEAVER AND LIPSCOMB AS THIS WILL BE              
THE LAST AREA TO BEGIN CLOUDING OVER AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS FURTHER               
WEST WILL NOT GET AS COLD AND MAY REACH THE FORECAST LOWS WITHIN THE            
NEXT FEW HOURS AND HOLD STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS             
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO MOVE IN. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO              
CLOUD COVER AS WELL. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.             
KIMBLE/GOEHRING                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS FCST IS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW               
OVER THE PANHANDLES FRI. CURRENT WV IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS UPPER LOW             
OVER NEVADA WHILE RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A S/WV TROUGH MOVING             
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN             
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. KEPT -SHSN OUT            
OF THE THREE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS THE LLVLS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.             
HOWEVER BY FRI MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL HEAD INTO THE FOUR                  
CORNERS REGION. ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS                
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRI AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL           
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...INCREASING THE MOISTURE RETURN IN THE            
LLVLS ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP             
SLOWLY. REGARDLESS FEEL ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND GIVEN               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...INSERTED PROB GROUPS FOR -SHSN AT ALL THREE                 
TERMINALS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.                                
CLK                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT A WHITE THANKSGIVING WILL            
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR. ALTHOUGH SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE            
THAT COULD REACH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE MIDNIGHT SO LEFT THE                
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TONIGHT. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE STILL                 
LINGERING WITH DEW POINTS GENLY IN THE TEENS. SO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD            
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.                       
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE NEVADA AND              
CALIFORNIA BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE                 
ENERGY FROM THIS LOW WILL DISLODGE FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND MOVE INTO           
THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW MORNING. A BIT CONCERNED WITH SFC MOISTURE              
VALUES AND WORRIED THAT MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY           
THOUGHT. NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ABOVE THE               
SURFACE THAT WILL MIX DOWN SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS             
THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME WILL HOLD THE             
BEST SHOT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STARTING TO               
DRAG THE UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH. SO THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL RELY             
HEAVILY ON THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES                 
FRIDAY. NAM IS STILL A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS/EURO...BUT NOW PAINTS             
BORDERLINE ADVISORY SNOWFALL FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.           
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE A SIMILAR ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ON               
FRIDAY. SO STILL FEEL THAT 40 TO 50 POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BUT HESITANT TO          
GO MUCH HIGHER. WILL ONCE AGAIN GO WITH AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SNOW                
AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...AND HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY BASED            
ON THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ADVISORY SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE.           
THE NAM FAVORS THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE GFS LEANS TOWARD             
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA...AND THE EURO PAINTS A BULLSEYE ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...TRENDED WITH A BLEND OF THE           
MAV GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR THE TEMP GRIDS.                             
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GFS AND EURO ARE NOW TAKING THE LOW FURTHER                
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COULD MEAN A MORE ABRUPT END TO THE              
PRECIP THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CURRENT GRIDS LINGER PRECIP INTO                
SATURDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. WITH              
THE DEEPER AND SLOWER TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...ANY UPPER RIDGING WILL           
BE BRIEF. IN FACT...GFS NOW INDICATES ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND COOL AIR           
DUMP INTO THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. COOLED OFF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY A              
FEW DEGREES AND CONTINUED THE COOLER TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE              
WEEK. GFS AND EURO BOTH SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPING FOR THE DAY           
6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. MODELS TAKE THE LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND STILL             
PAINT PRECIP OVER THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. SO BIGGEST CHANGE TO              
THE PACKAGE WAS TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.             
HAPPY THANKSGIVING.                                                             
JJB                                                                             
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
624 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS FCST IS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW               
OVER THE PANHANDLES FRI. CURRENT WV IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS UPPER LOW             
OVER NEVADA WHILE RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A S/WV TROUGH MOVING             
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN             
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. KEPT -SHSN OUT            
OF THE THREE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS THE LLVLS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.             
HOWEVER BY FRI MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL HEAD INTO THE FOUR                  
CORNERS REGION. ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS                
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRI AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL           
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...INCREASING THE MOISTURE RETURN IN THE            
LLVLS ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP             
SLOWLY. REGARDLESS FEEL ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND GIVEN               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...INSERTED PROB GROUPS FOR -SHSN AT ALL THREE                 
TERMINALS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.                                
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT A WHITE THANKSGIVING WILL            
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR. ALTHOUGH SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE            
THAT COULD REACH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE MIDNIGHT SO LEFT THE                
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TONIGHT. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE STILL                 
LINGERING WITH DEW POINTS GENLY IN THE TEENS. SO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD            
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.                       
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE NEVADA AND              
CALIFORNIA BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE                 
ENERGY FROM THIS LOW WILL DISLODGE FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND MOVE INTO           
THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW MORNING. A BIT CONCERNED WITH SFC MOISTURE              
VALUES AND WORRIED THAT MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY           
THOUGHT. NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ABOVE THE               
SURFACE THAT WILL MIX DOWN SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS             
THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME WILL HOLD THE             
BEST SHOT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STARTING TO               
DRAG THE UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH. SO THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL RELY             
HEAVILY ON THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES                 
FRIDAY. NAM IS STILL A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS/EURO...BUT NOW PAINTS             
BORDERLINE ADVISORY SNOWFALL FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.           
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE A SIMILAR ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ON               
FRIDAY. SO STILL FEEL THAT 40 TO 50 POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BUT HESITANT TO          
GO MUCH HIGHER. WILL ONCE AGAIN GO WITH AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING SNOW                
AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...AND HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY BASED            
ON THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ADVISORY SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE.           
THE NAM FAVORS THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE GFS LEANS TOWARD             
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA...AND THE EURO PAINTS A BULLSEYE ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...TRENDED WITH A BLEND OF THE           
MAV GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR THE TEMP GRIDS.                             
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GFS AND EURO ARE NOW TAKING THE LOW FURTHER                
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COULD MEAN A MORE ABRUPT END TO THE              
PRECIP THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CURRENT GRIDS LINGER PRECIP INTO                
SATURDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. WITH              
THE DEEPER AND SLOWER TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...ANY UPPER RIDGING WILL           
BE BRIEF. IN FACT...GFS NOW INDICATES ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND COOL AIR           
DUMP INTO THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. COOLED OFF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY A              
FEW DEGREES AND CONTINUED THE COOLER TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE              
WEEK. GFS AND EURO BOTH SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPING FOR THE DAY           
6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. MODELS TAKE THE LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND STILL             
PAINT PRECIP OVER THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. SO BIGGEST CHANGE TO              
THE PACKAGE WAS TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.             
HAPPY THANKSGIVING.                                                             
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
323 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING AND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH                
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST               
CONCERNS.                                                                       
AT 3 AM...A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN                    
KANSAS. DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW                 
SOME FLURRIES FROM CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE SNOW              
SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB               
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. ADDITIONAL FLURRIES              
WERE BEING REPORTED AND INDICATED ON THE KMPX RADAR BETWEEN                     
LITCHFIELD AND MORA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS                      
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE RUC                       
INDICATES THAT THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND               
MOVE GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATES 90 AND 94 THIS MORNING. DUE TO              
THIS...I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL FLURRIES               
ACROSS WABASHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUFFALO AND                      
TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...JACKSON COUNTY IN              
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL              
WISCONSIN.                                                                      
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA                
WILL SEE WEAK TO MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A 500 MB                  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON                     
SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT                       
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT               
TONIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...I KEPT THE 20 PERCENT                  
CHANCE OF SNOW GOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ELSEWHERE                  
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES. IN                 
ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES                 
COOL THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. AS A                
RESULT...I DID NOT GO WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE                 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING.                                       
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW               
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE                   
ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM                  
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY EVENING TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON                
MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW                 
WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DUE              
TO THE CONTINUED WIDE MODEL SPREAD...I LEFT THE CURRENT THE                     
FORECAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND                  
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON MONDAY ALONE.                                            
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                
MOVING THROUGH THE THE REGION ON EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE              
GFS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SNOW STORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST                      
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER IT IS NOW MOVING                 
THROUGH THE REGION 24 HOURS FASTER THAN ITS NOVEMBER 22ND 12Z                   
MODEL RUN. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR TIMING...BUT THE                 
TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE RAIN.                  
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY AND VERY POOR TELECONNECTION VERIFICATION                 
LATELY IN THIS TIME FRAME...I HAVE OPTED NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES                
TO THE EXISTING FORECAST.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                   
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS IS ON CLOUD COVER. VFR STRATO-CU               
AND SOME FLURRIES OVER WI SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT...LOOKS                
TO NO LONGER BE A CONCERN TO THE TAF LOCATIONS...BUT COULD IMPACT               
LIGHTS EAST TOWARD KMSN-KMKE-KGRB. COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY                     
PROVIDING SOME FROST ON AIRCRAFT SURFACES WHICH WERE PARKED                     
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER CLOUD DECK AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ASSOCIATED                 
WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION SEEN ACROSS MN. MODELS SUPPORT THIS MOVING             
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOES NOT                   
APPEAR TO IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS EITHER...BUT MAY IMPACT FLIGHTS                  
NORTH TOWARD KMSP-KDLH. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH                
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT AND LONG TERM - BOYNE                                                     
AVIATION - MW                                                                   
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
430 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT...                                                                      
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SRN PENINSULA AS OF 08Z. 3.9UM               
SHOWS PLENTY OF MARINE SC UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC...ALTHOUGH KMLB                
INDICATES NIL PRECIP EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. ALSO...RUC ANLYS             
AND IR IMAGERY SHOW INCRSG H25 DIVG OVER THE ERN GOMEX FL ACSD WITH             
BROAD JET STREAK UPSTREAM. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN CI/CS               
OVHD. INTERESTING TEMP DISTRIBUTION ALONG THE EAST COAST BTWN SITES             
WHERE BLYR HAS DECOUPLED (MLB/56F FPR-TIX/57F) VS. SITES WHERE FLOW             
IS STILL NNE AROUND 10KT (DAB/65F VRB/69F X59/72F). SUSPECT THIS IS             
DEPENDENT ON DISTANCE BTWN AIRPORT CTRFIELD AND THE COAST...OR                  
PERHAPS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.                                              
TODAY/TONIGHT...                                                                
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPR HGHTS RISING SOME AS NERN CONUS SHORT            
WAVE TROUGH ZIPS EWD INTO THE NWRN ATLC WHILST SWRN CONUS CUTOFF LOW            
DIGS SEWD INTO OLD MEX. LARGE COLD ERN CONUS SFC HIGH PUSHES RAPIDLY            
OFFSHORE IN ZONAL WSW-ESE MID/UPPER FLOW...WHICH ALLOW SFC FLOW TO              
VEER QUICKLY AROUND TO EAST TODAY AND ESE/SE BY TONIGHT. WHILE                  
MODELS INCREASE MEAN PWAT SOME OVER THE NEXT H24...OTHER THAN A FEW             
COASTAL SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF THE SHOREWARD MOVG MARINE SC                   
DECK...THERE IS NIL LOW-MID LEVEL FORCED ASCENT...AND THE MEAGER H25            
JET DIVG WILL DO LITTLE ELSE THAN KEEP HIGH CLOUDS OVHD. HAVE                   
REMOVED PRECIP CHCS TODAY/TONIGHT...AND BUMPED UP CLOUD A BIT FOR               
TODAY.                                                                          
SUN/SUN NIGHT...                                                                
PUSHED BY A STRONG DLM WRLY FLOW...THE SFC-H70 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE              
MIDWEST WILL PUSH WELL OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK SUN.                    
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE DESERT SW WILL KICK AN H85-H50            
RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE WRN ATLC.  THESE TWO RIDGING               
FEATURES WILL MERGE INTO A POTENT DLM ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WRN N                
ATLC...WHICH WILL GENERATE A STRONG S/SERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE              
STATE.  THE FLOW WILL PUSH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER S FL               
BACK TO THE N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT.                                             
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE              
LOW/MID LVL WINDS VEER TO THE S/SE...SUGGESTING SOME FORM OF                    
STRATIFORM PRECIP EVENT ON SUN.  HOWEVER...DLM MOISTURE WITHIN THE              
VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS RATHER LIMITED:  PW OFF THE 00Z KMFL                   
SOUNDING WERE 1.5"...MOST OF WHICH IS SANDWICHED WITHIN THE H90-H70             
LYR.  BEHIND THE FRONT...PW VALUES DROP TO 0.7"-0.8".                           
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN THE FCST FOR THE CENTRAL/SRN CWA AS THE                 
FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE N...BUT WITH A LIMITED MOISTURE FIELD                   
BUILDING INTO SUCH A LOW MOISTURE FIELD...PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL HAVE A            
LOW IMPACT...GENERALLY AOB 0.10".  STEADY S/SERLY FLOW WILL KEEP                
TEMPS ~10F DEG ABV CLIMO.                                                       
MON-TUE...                                                                      
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROF WILL SPIN UP A BROAD SFC LOW OVER            
NRN MEX INTO A WELL DEVELOPED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY             
BY DAYBREAK MON.  HOWEVER...IN DOING SO THE TROF WILL SHIFT FROM A              
DIGGING TO A LIFTING ORIENTATION...JUST AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER               
THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC.  GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE NOW LEANING TO A             
COLD FROPA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY LATE TUE NIGHT...BUT                
WITH THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING AWAY...IT WILL ABANDON SRN                 
EXTENSION OF THE FRONT.  THIS PATTERN WOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE              
FROPA THAT JUST TRANSPIRED...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT LA NINA WX                   
PATTERN...IT SEEMS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE.  WILL CAP POPS AT 20% WITH NO            
MENTION OF THUNDER.  CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP MAX-MIN TEMPS                
~10F DEG ABV CLIMO THRU TUE MORNING.  WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND            
THE FROPA MAY BE ABLE TO RETURN MAX TEMPS TO WITHIN ~5F DEG OF CLIMO            
TUE/TUE NIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR COOL DOWN.                                         
WED-FRI...                                                                      
MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG H85-H50 RIDGING OVER               
THE GOMEX/SW ATLC REGION THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS WOULD LIMIT              
MOISTURE RETURN AND VERTICAL MOTION...AS WELL A POSING A FORMIDABLE             
BARRIER FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE STATE.  EVEN IF            
ONE WERE TO OCCUR...IT TOO...WOULD LOSE MOST OF ITS STRENGTH AS IT              
"RUNS THE GAUNTLET".  INDEED...GFS EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A            
LATE WEEK COOL DOWN OF 5-10F DEG WITH NEGLIGIBLE POPS.  AT THE RISK             
OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...IT`S HARD TO ARGUE THIS SOLUTION             
IN A LA NINA YEAR.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THINK COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW OF UPSTREAM MARINE SC AND DIURNAL             
HEATING WILL CAUSE PREVAILING VFR BKN SC CIGS AT MOST SITES FROM                
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN ONWARD TODAY...ESPEC NR THE COAST. CAVEAT               
HERE IS THAT BKN HIGH LVL CIGS COULD INHIBITING INSOLATION ENOUGH TO            
KEEP LOWER CLDS SCT. MAV MOS IS PRETTY GUNG-HO ON MVFR TO LCL IFR               
CONDS IN MIST/FOG LATE TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO THROW IN SOME MVFR VSBYS            
INTO THE NORMALLY PRONE TAF SITES FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...THOUGH NOT              
SURE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN ENOUGH FOR CONDS TO DROP BELOW MVFR.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
IT`S CLEAR NOW THAT WNAWAVE GUIDANCE HAS OVERDONE EXTENT OF THIS                
EVENT. NRN MARINE ZONES WERE FCST TO BE NEAR OR AT SCA CONDS BY                 
NOW...YET BUOYS 009/010 HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15KT/5FT AFTER THE                   
INITIAL POST-FRONTAL WIND SURGE. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RISE            
IN WINDS/SEAS WITH PSBL SECONDARY ENE/E WIND INCREASE...BUT NOTHING             
ABOVE 15KT OR SO AND 6FT WELL OFFSHORE. NO CHOICE BUT TO DISCONTINUE            
SCA GIVEN CURRENT CONDS.                                                        
PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE-TROF-RIDGE             
PATTERN OVER THE SERN U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  RIDGE              
AXIS BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL GENERATE A FRESH TO                   
MODERATE E/SE FLOW OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS ON SUN.  THESE WILL                 
SHIFT TO THE S/SE MON/MON NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO              
THE PANHANDLE. FROPA ON TUE WILL ALLOW SW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE                  
NW...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL GENERATE CHOPPY              
SEAS OVER THE OPEN ATLC.  RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST            
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE E/NE BY MIDDAY             
WED.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  73  64  80  68 /  10  10  20  10                                           
MCO  78  62  83  66 /  10  10  20  10                                           
MLB  79  68  81  71 /  10  10  20  10                                           
VRB  79  68  81  71 /  10  10  20  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI                                                 
LONG TERM....BRAGAW                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
325 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SNOW TODAY.                                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA              
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS            
TO A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. A STEEP RIDGE IS OVER THE                   
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER              
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE TROUGH ARE                
OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHER                  
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN.                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE HIGH OVER EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC                
STATES WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY                
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A DEEP LOW IS OVER WESTERN            
HUDSON BAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA              
AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK TROUGH WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF THE            
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND                  
EASTERN NEBRASKA.                                                               
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS                
WILL THE SURFACE REFLECTION. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN               
ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.              
HOWEVER...THE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T WILL STILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE            
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE              
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SUPPORT BRING SOME SNOW TO THE              
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT IT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY ABOVE               
850MB AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO WHAT COMES               
FROM THE LAKE. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OUT OF THE               
SOUTHWEST SO MOST OF THE LES WILL OCCUR ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 280K ISENTROPIC WINDS               
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY THUS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD                
STILL GET SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD ONLY              
RECEIVE LIGHT AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. A 40 KNOTS LOW                 
LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE                
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTS MIXING THE WINDS TO SURFACE...WHICH WILL            
REACH GALE FORCE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.                                            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT                  
SETTING UP MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. MID LEVEL                
INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL ACROSS               
WESTERN CONUS IN THE ZONAL FLOW AND REACH NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST            
MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH INTO             
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE                 
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT                      
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE A MORE SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF             
THE FRONT. THE CRITICAL FACTOR HERE WILL THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.            
THE LOCALLY GENERATE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF CONTINUES TO PLACE THE                 
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE FIELD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE                    
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN IS SUPPORTING THIS                    
SCENARIO AS WELL WHILE THE NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL POSITION               
BUT IS A LITTLE DRIER. THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT              
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL              
WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.                                                   
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN PART OF             
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL            
MOVE TO NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT               
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL                   
SYSTEM. LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO               
HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR            
WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PER NAM/GFS/GEM. ONE            
BRANCH OF THE LOW JET WILL BE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WHILE THE OTHER              
IS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS OVER THE LAKE              
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.                                                           
THE SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE               
THE SURFACE LOW RELOCATES OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE FRONT WILL             
CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A             
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI                   
CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE                   
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE                 
NORTHWEST OVER THE LAKE AND THE 850MB DELTA-T WILL BE AROUND 14C.               
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE FORECAST             
BY SUNRISE.                                                                     
GEM/GFS/ECMWF WILL BRING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT            
6 HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS SHOWN FOR MONDAY. THUS WILL MOVE UP               
THE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY 6 HOURS. THE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL            
SHOW WHERE THE FAVORED AREAS OF HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL              
OCCUR.                                                                          
A MID LEVEL LOW WILL SWING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS ONTARIO                 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. THE COOLEST AREA              
(-22C) OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO LATE               
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO                     
INCREASE. WINDS WILL FAVOR SOME LES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WITH THE             
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A              
FEW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DUE TO            
THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THE ONTARIO.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE                
MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES INTO SAT MORNING...BUT NO VIS RESTRICTION IS            
EXPECTED. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WHILE AWAITING THE              
EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. IT REMAINS               
VERY UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL VEER WRLY ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT             
OR SAT MORNING TO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONSHORE AS FAR S AS              
KCMX. SO ONLY PROB30 INCLUDED FOR MVFR VIS IN -SHSN FROM MID MORNING            
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN VFR OR DROP               
TO IFR DEPENDING ON VERY SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION. WHETHER              
OR NOT SNOW DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME RATHER GUSTY IN THE             
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST WINDS WILL VEER MORE WRLY BY LATE                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MAY STILL HAVE ENOUGH S COMPONENT TO KEEP             
ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL LES BANDS OFFSHORE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 30 KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THANKS TO THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH NOW               
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS                     
MORNING...HOWEVER LURKING TO THE NW IS A STRONGER TROUGH OVER                   
CENTRAL MANITOBA. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO                     
GALES...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 KT OVER THE TYPICAL SW FLOW HIGH              
WIND AREA OF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND            
BECOMES STATIONARY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SE            
SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.              
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...NORTH WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 25 KT                  
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR               
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...THE WIND FORECAST IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...WITH            
THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK ARCTIC AIR SHOT ON TUESDAY MORNING. IF               
THIS PANS OUT...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A BRIEF NW GALE ALONG                  
WITH FREEZING SPRAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.                     
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA IS SHOWN TO MOVE UP INTO THE              
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT                 
TRACK...ANOTHER N TO NW GALE COULD OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE                
HIGH. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD THIS WOULD OCCUR             
WOULD BE LATE WEDNESDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING 1 PM SAT TO MIDNIGHT EST SAT NIGHT LSZ162-263-264.                
 GALE WARNING 4 PM SAT TO 3 AM EST SUN LSZ265>267.                              
 GALE WARNING 4 PM SAT TO 1 AM EST SUN LSZ243-244.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1234 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE -SN AND POTENTIAL LES OVER THE KEWEENAW.                 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NW MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF             
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER NE MN INTO FAR NW WI WITH LOWEST VSBYS              
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE. S TO SW SFC WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS                
MOST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH NE MN. WITH                 
ADDITIONAL PRES FALLS EXPECTED N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD DAYBREAK               
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRES MOVING SE FROM MANITOBA...AND DEVELOPING              
LAND BREEZES...MAIN CONVERGENT ZONE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS                   
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE INTO SAT MORNING. SO...POPS WERE             
LOWERED OVER THE NRN KEWEENAW. OTHERWISE...280K-285 ISENTROPIC                  
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO UPPER              
MI. HOWEVER...WITH A SIGNIFICANT 850-700 DRY LAYER...PER 03Z KSAW               
TAMDAR SOUNDING...ONLY WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE                           
AVAILABLE...MAINLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO                      
ACCUMULATION.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
MAIN FCST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND LES.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST             
OF NAMERICA WITH THE DOWNSTREAM TROF DOMINATING MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN               
NAMERICA. IN THE NW FLOW...ONE SHORTWAVE IS OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH A             
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING TOWARD NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WAA               
REGIME IN RESPONSE TO THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A BAND OF               
MID CLOUDS AND STRATOCU INTO UPPER MI TODAY. SOME FLURRIES HAVE ALSO            
OCCURRED OVER THE WRN FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW              
THAT HAS DEVELOPED HAS SHIFTED WHAT IS LEFT OF LES COMPLETELY                   
OFFSHORE OF UPPER MI. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A DOMINANT BAND                 
CLOSE TO THE N SHORE OF MN EXTENDING NE TO JUST N OF ISLE ROYALE. IT            
APPEARS MUCH OF THAT BAND HAS BROKEN UP. IT`S DIFFICULT TO TELL WHAT            
IS HAPPENING NOW AS HIGHER CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING LAKE EFFECT...BUT               
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT LES IS OCCURRING BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND                
ISLE ROYALE.                                                                    
WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING NO HIGHER THAN -9C TONIGHT...LES WILL                   
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY...AND ONGOING SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR               
THE POTENTIAL OF LONG FETCH SW-NE ORIENTED LES BANDS OVER WRN LAKE              
SUPERIOR. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NRN ONTARIO HEADS ESE...SFC TROF                    
NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR NW MN WILL SLIP OVER LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE...PROMOTING THE             
DEVELOPMENT OF A DOMINANT BAND ALONG THE TROF. ALL THE MODELS                   
SUGGEST THIS...BUT THE RUC13 AND LOCALLY RUN HIGH RES WRF-ARW ARE               
MUCH MORE WELL-DEFINED WITH THE BAND. SO THE QUESTION IS...WILL THE             
WINDS BECOME WRLY ENOUGH TO PUSH THIS BAND TO THE KEWEENAW.                     
CURRENTLY...PRES RISES BEHIND THE SFC TROF ARE WEAKENING TO THE                 
POINT THAT THERE ARE ALMOST NO RISES NOTED IN THE LAST 3HRS...AND               
PRES FALLS ARE ALREADY INCREASING AND SPREADING S INTO SCNTRL CANADA            
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING S IN NRN CANADA. THUS...IT             
WOULD APPEAR THE TROF/WIND SHIFT WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS             
ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP CHC                
POPS N OF HOUGHTON OVERNIGHT AND JUST BRUSH THE SHORE OF KEWEENAW               
COUNTY WITH LIKELY POPS AND ABOUT 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION. EVENING               
SHIFT WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO SHIFT HIGHER POPS OFFSHORE OF THE                
KEWEENAW IF UPSTREAM PRES FALLS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BEHIND TROF.            
AS FOR LES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...SW FLOW WILL HAVE ENOUGH WRLY                   
COMPONENT TO KEEP ANY LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN E OF THE FCST AREA. AWAY            
FROM THE POSSIBLE LES OVER THE KEWEENAW...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF               
SLIGHT CHC -SHSN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS SFC OBS/RADAR                
INDICATE SOME -SN/FLURRIES IN THE VCNTY OF SFC TROF.                            
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING TOWARD SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL REACH            
NRN ONTARIO SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE LITTLE FOR            
MOST OF SAT. SO...THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW REMAINS THE ONLY LOCATION             
FOR ANY LES CONCERNS. SINCE THERE IS A HINT THAT THE 850MB WINDS                
TAKE ON A MORE WRLY DIRECTION SAT AFTN...THE POTENTIAL FOR LES ON               
THE KEWEENAW SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY. IF LES DOES NOT REACH               
THAT AREA TONIGHT...IT SHOULD SAT AFTN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT            
SNOW AMOUNTS CONSERVATIVE WITH JUST 1 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES NORTH OF                
HOUGHTON.                                                                       
LONGER TERM...00Z SUN ONWARD...                                                 
NAM SHOWING 500 MB FLOW GETTING ZONAL ON SUN AFTER TROUGH AXIS                  
PASSES THROUGH EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH TROUGHING FOR MON. THERE IS A               
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ON THE I280K-I295K SURFACES ON THE NAM                
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SAT NIGHT THAT SHIFTS TO              
THE NORTH ON SUN. GFS SHOWS THIS AS WELL ON I280K-I300K SURFACES                
ALONG WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR                    
CONVERGENCE WHICH REMAINS ON SUN ACROSS THE CWA. WITH WEST WINDS ON             
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...THE KEWEENAW COULD SEE SOME DECENT              
SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM SETTING UP TO HELP THE             
SNOWFALL RATES ALONG. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR KCMX AND KP59 SHOW INVERSION            
HEIGHTS ABOUT 5000 FEET THEN AND THIS FALLS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN             
MORNING. PROBLEM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IS THERE IS WARMING            
AT 850 MB FROM -8C TO -10C TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z SUN AND THEN 850 MB             
TEMPERATURES WARM MORE AFTER THAT AND THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY BY               
18Z SUN. LAKE EFFECT COMBINED WITH THE NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IN             
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL GIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SAT            
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE            
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN CWA AT THAT TIME AND THIS WILL STILL NEED              
TO BE WATCHED AS THIS COULD BE ADVISORY AMOUNT SNOW OR JUST BELOW               
ADVISORY DEPENDING ON HOW AND WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND SETS UP            
AND IF IT MOVES BACK AND FORTH AT ALL. THIS IS THE ONLY SPOT THAT               
WOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THE LAKE EFFECT COMBINED WITH THE               
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE. WILL GO UNDERNEATH ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR              
NOW AS GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST LEVELS AGAIN HAVE AN INVERTED-V            
SOUNDING LOOK TO THEM WITH SOME DRY AIR AND THIS SHOULD CUT INTO                
AMOUNTS A BIT. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING             
FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO LIKELY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH THE               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AND THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AROUND. FOR                     
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES OR VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE            
GOING FORECAST.                                                                 
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW THE 500              
MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
00Z TUE WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AFFECTING THE AREA 00Z WED. ANOTHER              
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 00Z THU AND FOR 00Z FRI WITH RIDGING FOR 00Z                
SAT. WE END UP GETTING TWO STORMS WITH THE FIRST ON MON AND THE NEXT            
ON WED AND THU. THE ONE FOR WED AND THU COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW             
PRODUCER BEHIND IT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG NORTH TO                    
NORTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE WITH ITS TRACK ANYWAY.             
WENT CLOSE TO 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES             
LOOK TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED STARTING ON WED AND               
WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE                
MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES INTO SAT MORNING...BUT NO VIS RESTRICTION IS            
EXPECTED. AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WHILE AWAITING THE              
EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. IT REMAINS               
VERY UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE WINDS WILL VEER WRLY ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT             
OR SAT MORNING TO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONSHORE AS FAR S AS              
KCMX. SO ONLY PROB30 INCLUDED FOR MVFR VIS IN -SHSN FROM MID MORNING            
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN VFR OR DROP               
TO IFR DEPENDING ON VERY SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION. WHETHER              
OR NOT SNOW DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME RATHER GUSTY IN THE             
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST WINDS WILL VEER MORE WRLY BY LATE                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MAY STILL HAVE ENOUGH S COMPONENT TO KEEP             
ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL LES BANDS OFFSHORE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FCST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL OF GALES SAT/SAT                
NIGHT. LATEST ROUND OF FCST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THINKING OF THE               
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WSW GALES WILL IN FACT OCCUR SAT                       
AFTN/EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF                 
DROPPING SE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE THUS ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR            
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SAT AFTN/NIGHT. BEFORE THE GALES               
BEGIN...STIFF SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING             
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS PROBABLY BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE.            
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES...THIS TIME N TO NW GALES...MAY OCCUR LATE               
WED AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING 1 PM SAT TO MIDNIGHT EST SAT NIGHT LSZ263-264.                    
 GALE WARNING 4 PM SAT TO 3 AM EST SUN LSZ265>267.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1202 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...WITH PERSISTENT SW LOW LEVEL WINDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A NUISANCE OF ITSELF NEAR PLN...WITH FEWER                
ISSUES AT TVC/APN. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOULD BE AT MIDDAY                
SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS MUCH MORE MOISTURE              
TO THE REGION. STILL HAVE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD               
TODAY AT PLN. WITH NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS...THIS SNOW WILL BE              
SOMEHWTA HEAVIER/SLUSHIER THAN WE/VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.              
AT TVC/APN...MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH                   
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO HIGH-END IFR AT TVC FOR A TIME...AND                     
OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO LOW-END MVFR AT APN. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...                 
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AT TVC/APN AS THE UPPER                       
DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY. PLN WILL STILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE             
MI...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS DURING THE DAY.                                  
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 948 PM FRI NOV 23...                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) EXPERIENCED A LULL IN THE LATE                           
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SINCE THEN...A DOMINANT BAND HAS TRIED TO              
REORGANIZE...FROM CROSS VILLAGE TO BOIS BLANC ISLAND...AND IS VERY              
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS IS NORTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW              
FELL DURING THE DAY. THIS BAND IS NOT YET ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS            
SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A            
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT HAS DEVELOPED                
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT...WITH MAINLY SOUTH WINDS OVER NORTHERN                
LOWER MI...AND WSW WINDS ON BEAVER ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN LK HURON             
BUOY.                                                                           
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE CONVERGENCE               
ZONE CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AHEAD OF             
THE MAIN COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. IF IT                  
CAN...1000-850MB CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN...AND SO SHOULD THE LES            
BAND. MIXED SIGNAL FROM THE SHORT-TERM MODELS. THE RUC STRENGTHENS              
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH TIME...BUT MAINLY BECAUSE ITS SURFACE                
WIND FIELDS ARE TOO WEAK IN THE HERE AND NOW (ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE              
MI). THE NAM IS INCLINED TO WEAKEN CONVERGENCE WITH TIME...BUT IT IS            
ALSO STRUGGLING WITH THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS...WHICH ARE NOT BACKED             
ENOUGH OVER LAND.                                                               
AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY                  
BACKED OVER LAND AREAS THRU THE NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF MAIN LES                      
AREAS...CLOUD COVER IS PATCHY/THIN AND HAS HELPED IN KEEPING THE LOW            
LEVEL WINDS FROM FULLY COUPLING. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND...LES                
BAND SHOULD STRENGTHEN...THOUGH IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A               
BIT AS 1000-850MB WINDS SHIFT (SLIGHT BACKING THIS EVENING...SLIGHT             
VEERING OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST IF THE NAM IS TO BE BELIEVED).                     
OVERALL...HAVE DIMINISHED THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EMMET                 
COUNTY A BUT...WITH AROUND 4 INCHES OR SO IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE              
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWNSTREAM...IN FAR NORTHERN                
CHEBOYGAN COUNTY...AND OUT TOWARD DE TOUR/DRUMMOND. THESE CHANGES               
WILL PROMPT AN LES ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN CO...WHICH WILL              
RUN THRU 7 PM SATURDAY.                                                         
SPEAKING OF WHICH...WILL BUMP UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT FOR SATURDAY.               
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE (AT LEAST INITIALLY). BUT AS             
THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AT MIDDAY (STILL COINCIDENT WITH DELTA               
T/S AROUND 17C)...BANDED LES OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY                
STRONG TO LOWER SURFACE TEMPS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING.                          
ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...HAVE ALREADY LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT IN               
SOME SPOTS (LIKE GRAYLING). HOWEVER...WITH WINDS INCREASING WITH                
TIME...SUSPECT MOST PLACES ARE NEAR (OR HAVE ALREADY SEEN) THEIR                
LOWS FOR THE NIGHT.                                                             
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 404 PM FRI NOV 23...                              
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LAKE                  
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND AMOUNTS...AND WHAT/IF ANY HEADLINES MAY            
BE NEEDED. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN            
ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISS             
VALLEY UP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE                
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY                  
DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL LOW LEVEL FLOW               
REGIME HAS BEEN IN TRANSIT THROUGH THE DAY...STARTING                           
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ENDING UP MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS OF 19Z...WITH A            
CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE WSW                  
FAVORED LOCATIONS. DESPITE RATHER SCANT 900-700MB MOISTURE                      
INITIALLY...LATEST RUC/SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPTICK IN                    
BOUNDARY LAYER RH GIVEN INCREASINGLY LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE                     
MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE BEEN RATHER                     
IMPRESSIVE IN A FEW SPOTS...NAMELY OWING TO PRONOUNCED STUBBORN LOW             
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SNUCK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH              
THE DAY. BIGGEST WINNERS SO FAR - CHARLEVOIX AND EMMET                          
COUNTIES...WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF 3 TO AS MUCH AS LOCALLY 5 INCHES            
HAVE BEEN NOTED...VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH LATEST KAPX RADAR STORM                
TOTAL SNOW GRAPHICS.                                                            
FOR TONIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN PROGGED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE AS                  
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT AHEAD OF                   
APPROACHING LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH. PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY TO            
WORK WITH (OBVIOUSLY GIVEN ONGOING SNOWS)...WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED              
TO "WARM" JUST SLIGHTLY TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z TOMORROW. 900-700MB RH            
ALSO QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR LES...WITH VALUES ON THE RISE TO 80 PERCENT            
OR BETTER OVERNIGHT PER CONTINUED LONG FETCH UP LAKE MICHIGAN.                  
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY REASON WHY SNOWS WON/T CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH              
OF THE NIGHT AS WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDS STATUS QUO...AND                      
INCREASING GRADIENT ACTS TO PREVENT ANY LAND BREEZES THAT COULD                 
POTENTIALLY TRY TO SHOVE ANY SNOW BANDS FARTHER OFFSHORE. USING THE             
15Z SREF POP MEAN AS GUIDANCE...WILL HANG THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS               
EMMET AND SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTIES (I.E. W/SW FLOW AREAS)...AND               
WILL RUN WITH A WARNING ACROSS EMMET (GIVEN ALREADY SNOWY CONDITIONS            
THIS AFTERNOON) AND AN ADVISORY FOR MACKINAC (WITH A HIGHER CRITERIA            
FOR WARNING).                                                                   
HEADING INTO TOMORROW...UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE                 
REGION BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z...WITH AXIS OF DECENT 700-500MB -DIVQ AND            
MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE (1000-500MB RH INCREASES TO BETTER                
THAN 90 PERCENT) ANNOUNCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT              
TO THE EVENT. CONTINUED WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOULD             
EASILY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION...HOWEVER            
WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME POSSIBLE PTYPE ISSUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE             
COAST GIVEN LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WITH FORECAST RAOBS                   
INDICATING FREEZING LEVELS ABOUT 1500 FT AGL. SOME QUESTION WHETHER             
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MELTING...AND PROBABLY DEPENDENT ON                 
INTENSITY OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL HOLD PRECIP ALL            
SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC             
SUPPORT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST              
TO EAST AS -DIVQ AXIS ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT                   
DOUBTFUL OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION GIVEN EXPECTED HIGHS IN             
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND              
OVERALL WEAK FORCING.                                                           
ON THE MARINE SIDE...INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES                
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY                  
TOMORROW MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE            
INSTABILITY-MIXED LAYER RUNNING ABOUT 35-40 KNOTS. COUPLED WITH                 
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD EASILY SEE GUSTS IN THE GALE RANGE...WITH            
GALE CONDITIONS SPREADING TO OTHER NEARSHORE AREAS BY EARLY                     
AFTERNOON AS CORE OF STRONGER 900-850MB WINDS SPREADS EAST.                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED             
TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF               
THE REGION.  850-700MB RH FALLS FROM 55-65 PCT AT 00Z SUN TO 45-55              
PCT BY 12Z AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER FROM AROUND 6KFT TO ABOUT                
3KFT OVER THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.  THIS ALL POINTS TO A DIMINISHING              
TREND OF LES ACTIVITY WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS ARRIVING DURING THE               
EVENING AND WILL GO UP TO A HALF INCH OVER SOUTHERN MACKINAC AND                
NORTHERN EMMET COUNTIES.  MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR               
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE BETWEEN -3C TO -6C              
IN THE MORNING TO NEAR 0C BY EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BELIEVE ANY                 
LINGERING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LES                 
ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.  MOISTURE              
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE NE INTO ONTARIO AS                
WILL MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE JET             
STREAM.  SO WITH THE DEPARTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                     
CWA...LOOKS LIKE SOME SUNSHINE WILL BE HAD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS                 
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.                              
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A MID-                 
LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK ALONG ITS WARM                   
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SW WINDS              
WILL BRING RELATIVELY WARM AIR (850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -3C AND 0C)                 
INTO MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE              
30S. DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE OUT                
TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A NE MOVING SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED                    
PACIFIC WAVE. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER                    
VALLEY BY MIDDAY TO CENTRAL OHIO BY 00Z TUE. NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF              
THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW STILL LOOKS TO CLIP              
COUNTIES NEAR SAGINAW BAY. STILL HARD TO SAY IF PRECIP WILL MAKE                
HERE SINCE INITIAL DRY AIRMASS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. WILL TAKE              
OUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MORNING DUE TO THIS REASON BUT WILL                  
LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN 850MB TEMPS                  
AROUND 0C AND SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 40F. PASSAGE OF AN 850MB TROUGH              
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP SWITCH THE WINDS TO THE NW AND                   
ADVECT IN COOLER AIR...BUT NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP               
TO BE GENERATED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.                     
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE              
NEXT SW LOW DUE TO PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO               
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL HAVE THEIR                       
DIFFERENCES...SPECIFICALLY WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.  BEYOND                
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT MID TO            
LATE NEXT WEEK. PUT HIGHER FAITH IN THE ENSEMBLES THAN ANY ONE                  
PARTICULAR MODEL RUN.                                                           
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NE INTO             
NEW ENGLAND.  THE 06Z GFS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ENSEMBLE                   
MEMBERS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE QUICKER SIDE...SO TRIED TO                
TAKE A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK.  THIS WOULD PLACE THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON             
THE EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE MONDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH               
WILL EMANATE FROM THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SURFACE               
LOW PASSES TO OUR SE.  WINDS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL SWITCH TO THE              
NW AND BRING IN COLDER AIR WHICH HAS THE CHANCE TO START UP LAKE                
EFFECT PROCESSES.  06Z GFS IS ON THE COLDER EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND                
WILL TEMPER EXPECTATIONS ON HOW QUICK THE COLDER AIR MOVES                      
IN...ESPECIALLY SINCE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF            
THE COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.  BUT WITH THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL                   
CYCLONIC FLOW...AND QUESTION MARKS WITH LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...WILL            
LEAVE A GENERAL LOW CHANCE POP MONDAY NIGHT.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERN              
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL SKIRT BY TO THE             
NORTH WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT.  ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL              
SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE             
DAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY               
AIR WILL POUR INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SURFACE                  
LOW...AND DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE LAKE EFFECT EVENT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN            
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.                                                        
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE.                
ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE                  
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH SW ALOFT.  DRY LOW             
LEVELS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PRESENT WILL TRY TO KEEP THE AREA            
PRECIP FREE DESPITE 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C.  SO WILL GO WITH A DRY             
BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.                    
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL               
STEMMING FROM THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW AS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE              
EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES.  06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR            
A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE THAT WOULD PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT                
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE MUCH SUPPORT            
FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  WILL INCREASE POPS HEADING INTO                 
THURSDAY AS SOME SORT OF SURFACE FEATURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THEN             
KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS AS              
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND ANY SYSTEM.                                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR                      
     MIZ015-017.                                                                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016.               
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-            
     341-342-344>346.                                                           
LH...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LHZ345>349.                                                                
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-             
     322.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
412 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND SNOW CHANCES               
DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.                                  
0930Z SAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS                   
PUSHING ACROSS MN. ATTENDANT STRATUS DECK...WHICH MODELS HAVE A                 
VERY POOR HANDLE ON...EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MN BACK TOWARD THE                   
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SNOW SHOWERS CORRELATE WITH THE 20-25 DBZ ECHOES               
ON THE MPX RADAR...AND RUC/NAM/GFS PROGGED LIFT BETWEEN 850-700MB.              
WHILE THIS WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE               
STILL EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN                 
AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...NO MODEL IS CAPTURING                
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ADEQUATELY THIS MORNING. MORE                   
SPECIFICALLY...THE 00Z/24 GFS PROGGED 925MB LEVEL RH VALUES OF 45               
PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 06Z...WHERE AN OVERCAST                  
DECK CIRCA 3K FEET WAS REALIZED. ALTHOUGH THE RH PROG WAS TOO                   
DRY...THE 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL ON SATELLITE WAS BEGINNING TO SHOW              
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRY WEDGE EXPANDING INTO EASTERN NORTH                     
DAKOTA. THEREFORE...THINK THAT THE GFS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING...AND              
MAY SEE MORE CLEARING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE AS                       
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE STILL               
GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE SKY COVER FOR TODAY...WITH CLOUDY TO               
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD                 
COVER CONCERNS...AND PERSISTENCE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE              
ALSO UNDERCUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE                  
MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED.                                                         
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE               
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO +4                     
CELSIUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.               
ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE CWA TO WARM IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ON                      
SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                     
YIELDING DECENT MIXING POTENTIAL. A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE NOT              
OUT OF THE QUESTION.                                                            
BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS FEATURE A SHORTWAVE DIPPING DOWN FROM CANADA              
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE                    
AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE TRACK/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE                
MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATIVE/SUPPORTIVE              
OF 30 POPS FOR SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
VARIABLE CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AT 05Z WITH SEVERAL LAYERS IN THE 4               
TO 9 KFT RANGE. EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOWER CLOUD COVER MAKING GRADUAL              
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. UPPER WAVE SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS                 
INTO MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
AND DECREASING RETURNS ON RADAR. A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND             
KAXN AND FURTHER NORTH BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. AREA OF HIGH AND MID                  
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN                 
MAY HELP SEED LOWER CLOUDS AS THEY MOVE UNDERNEATH ALLOWING                     
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP. THUS WILL CONTINUE                
TO CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BUT HAVE KEPT VIS                          
RESTRICTIONS TO 5 OR 6 MILES. CIGS WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING.                    
UPSTREAM OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO                
CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MAY STAY JUST                 
NORTH OF KRWF WHERE LOWER END VFR CIGS SHOULD BE DOMINANT. EXPECT               
THE MVFR CIGS TO LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK WHEN WINDS IN THE CLOUD                  
BEARING LAYER BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND HELP TO ERODE THE REAR                   
FLANK. CLOUD COVER MAY LAST MORE TOWARDS MIDDAY IN WEST CENTRAL                 
WISCONSIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON                  
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO                    
AROUND 25 KTS FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE AFTERNOON.                                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/MDB                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1038 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NEW TEXT PRODUCTS AND GRIDS SENT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINOR TWEAKS FOR                    
EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT. UPPER THROUGH MOVING THROUGH                 
THE REGION WITH 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ALONG WITH A 90KT                   
30MB JET WILL PUSH PRECIP NOW OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL                    
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OUR CWFA. DRY WEDGE AT                   
700MB SHOULD LIMIT NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE THE PRECIP...ALTHOUGH                
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF FLURRIES NORTH OF I80 AS SOME MID LEVEL              
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. COBB FORECAST METHOD SUGGESTS               
A LITTLE OVER AN INCH IN OUR FAR SWRN CWFA FROM SEWARD TO FAIRBURY              
TO BEATRICE. DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT FROM NAM/GFS/RUC ALL IN SIMILIAR               
RANGE...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST FROM                 
THIS POINT. THUS UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER TO 2              
INCHES...AND DID TAPER THE SNOW BACK A BIT IN THE KOMA VICINITY                 
AND ACROSS SWRN IOWA.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BEST SNOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TAF FORECAST SITES WITH KLNK HAVING              
THE BEST PROBABILITY FOR SEEING ANY TYPE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.            
DON`T THINK ANY SNOW WILL AFFECT KOFK WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES            
AFFECTING KOMA...THUS LITTLE IF ANY VSBY RESTRICTION HERE.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                             
SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE                   
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.                                                  
INITIAL PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON TIMING OF A COUPLE OF                
UPPER LEVEL WAVES. ONE COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND              
THE SECOND OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE SWRN SYSTEM WHERE REGIONAL RADARS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW                 
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SHORT RANGE MODELS            
HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTION IN MOVING THE SNOW EAST TONIGHT AS PIECE OF               
ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM SHEARS OFF ACROSS KANSAS. BOTH NAM AND GFS              
DIG SWRN WAVE SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO             
ON SATURDAY WHILE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND             
WEAKENS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT TEMPORAL AND SPACIAL EXTENT OF               
SNOW TO 03Z-12Z TONIGHT AND ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA              
WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA            
BORDER TO A TRACE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER AND SOUTH OF I-80 IN                   
WESTERN IOWA. AS SOUTHERN SYSTEM INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY AND                    
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH...MID LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES CUT             
OFF ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAPID END TO THE SNOW. LOW LEVEL MOISURE               
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY IN               
THE FAR SOUTH. THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LIMIT               
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE.                   
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A CONCERN LATE SUNDAY INTO               
MONDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD MISSOURI WITH FAR SOUTHEAST                 
NEBRASKA ON THE NORTH EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT             
POPS FOR NOW FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA.                      
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE               
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THEN RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS WITH            
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY.                                       
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                         
GFS AND PARTICULARLY ECMWF SHOWING LOUSY CONSISTENCY IN THE EXTENDED            
PERIODS. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW. FOLLOWING ALONG WITH             
HPC GUID...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE SNOW BEGINNING TUESDAY AND INTO             
WEDNESDAY. ALL THIS HINGES UPON TIMING OF PACIFIC NW WAVE THAT                  
EVENTUALLY MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING            
DPVA WITH MID LAYER WAA COMBINE TO INCREASE LIFT THRU THE DAY ON                
TUESDAY AS WESTERN CONUS TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD THRU THE GREAT                     
BASIN...RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS INVOF WESTERN KS. SLY LLVL FLOW               
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW HELPS PULL SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PLAINS              
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.             
THE GFS SHOWS NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOW EVENTUALLY PHASING LATE WED               
ALLOWING A QUICK EXIT OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL CONSISTENCY TOTALLY                  
BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THE GFS ADVERTISES                 
BROAD TROF COVERING THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS WHILE THE ECMWF PLACES A                
WELL AMPLIFIED TROF FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SW CONUS. AT THIS POINT             
THINK ITS BEST TO JUST GO WITH TOKEN POPS FRIDAY UNTIL MODELS BECOME            
MORE CLEAR.                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
A PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHEAR OUT              
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 12Z SAT AS IT LIFTS NEWD AND MERGES WITH A             
NRN STREAM TROUGH.  THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS            
THAT COULD DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE AFT 06Z IN SERN                              
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE LNK VCNTY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS OMA.                
VSBYS IN THE LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 3 MILES. ALTHOUGH                
SNOW CHCS SHOULD END BEFORE 18Z...LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER UNTIL AFT             
18Z IN ERN NEBRASKA AND SWRN IA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEWALD                                                                          
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
254 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING COLD                 
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...AND HELPING TO END ANY REMAINING                   
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE               
REGION ON SATURDAY...AND BRING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS TO                  
MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH                      
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A MODERATING                
TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER BRINGING                 
RAIN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE STILL ONGOING...THEIR INTENSITY HAS              
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.                 
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z SHOW A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...A                
LOWERING INVERSION BASE...AND INCREASED SHEAR. ALL OF THIS HAS                  
TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE EARLIER LAKE SNOW BANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST              
RUC MODEL GUIDANCE...THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SHOULD BE PASSING                 
CENTRAL NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...SO WE EXPECT FLURRIES TO PERSIST                  
ABOUT UNTIL THAT TIME...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION                     
ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOULD END ALTOGETHER AFTER SUNRISE.                          
ONCE AGAIN...WE MASSAGED THE SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
NOT A BAD DAY ON SATURDAY...ALBEIT A BIT CHILLY. HOWEVER...LOW                  
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SPARK SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT                  
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS BEING THE RESULT.              
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE COOL...AND HAVE UNDERCUT THE                 
GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES AS WE PROBABLY WONT SEE FULL MIXING.                  
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 30S.                                              
SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR BACK OUT...BUT WITH GOOD WARM                 
ADVECTION UNDERWAY...WILL SEE LOWS A GOOD 5-7F WARMER THAN THE                  
NIGHT BEFORE...IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.                                           
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.                   
UNDER MSUNNY SKIES...T925 AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SHOULD YIELD                 
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.                                                    
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW                    
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVES              
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER BY ABOUT 6 HOURS ON               
PRECIP ARRIVAL WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER. THIS WILL END UP BEING                
PRETTY IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH ON                  
MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME FREEZING              
RAIN. THE MREFS ARE IN THE GFS CAMP WHILE THE SREFS ARE SLOWER AND              
MORE LIKE THE NAM. HAVE BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS BY MONDAY                        
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY                    
MORNING. INCLUDED A SCHC OF ZR EARLY MONDAY IN THE GRIDS...BUT                  
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING IS QUITE LOW.                               
ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL WEST                
OF THE CWA...SO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE NO MORE PTYPE                   
ISSUES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT... WITH THE               
BULK OF THE RAIN ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A FEW LIGHT                  
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE STORM WITH SOME              
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON                         
WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON THURSDAY                    
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO                
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT                 
SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL.                             
WENT WITH GMOS FOR TEMPERATURES... AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO                
GMOS POPS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
SCT AREAS OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ITH/RME/SYR WILL DISSIPATE                  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.                
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS PATCHES OF HIGH                   
CLOUD MOVE OVER THE AREA... BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE                 
VFR THRESHOLD.                                                                  
OUTLOOK...BEST POTNL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBY/S WILL COME MON/MON              
NGT, AND AGAIN ON THU AS S/WV`S AND ASSCD FNTL SYSTEMS MOV THRU.                
POTNL FOR SOME LES IN THE WAKE OF BOTH SYSTEMS, PRIMARILY                       
AFFECTING SYR/RME WITH POTNL FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS.                             
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PVB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PVB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PVB                                                                
LONG TERM...MSE                                                                 
AVIATION...MSE                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1159 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO                     
ACCORDING TO AREA RADARS...WHILE 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS                 
STRATUS CLOUDS EXPANDING/DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND                       
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT CIGS TO DROP BELOW               
MVFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES AFTER 12Z...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR AND                
LIFR CONDITIONS IN SN/BR THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC H5 HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT                    
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS                         
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WHILE                       
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO PINCH OFF ACROSS                      
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION AS EXPECTED                   
COURTESY OF 90-100 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS                       
UTAH/NEVADA. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM                  
SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS EVIDENCED BY INCREASING                   
PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THIS LIFT SHOULD               
BE INCREASING FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW              
MEXICO PLAINS AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE               
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE DECIDED TO                  
INCREASE OVERNIGHT POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                    
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS...BETTER IN LINE WITH THE                  
CURRENT WSW PRODUCT. ALSO INCREASED POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH              
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE 12Z.                                                
WE HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST. COLD               
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE               
DAY...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE                     
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER LOW                 
DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO                
LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
INITIALLY SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE                   
MORNING...BUT DO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ACROSS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT DETERMINE IF A SNOW                
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT ONE MAY BE                  
NECESSARY FROM THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR TO THE PERMIAN BASIN                       
TOMORROW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED                   
AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES LOOK PROBABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO                 
AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS BY TOMORROW EVENING IN THE WINTER                   
STORM WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD               
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST                 
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA                       
     COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY                  
     COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.                        
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR              
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...                          
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...                   
     GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...               
     PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...                    
     SCURRY...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...                
     WINKLER.                                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST                 
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE                         
     MOUNTAINS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1155 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SNOW CONTINUES IN EARNEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ALTHOUGH CURRENT                
WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WEST OF            
TUCUMCARI. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT                 
TRENDED TOWARD IFR CIGS AND VISBYS IN THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR              
THE LAST BAND TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO              
DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATES AMPLE BOUNDARY            
LAYER MOISTURE. FROPA SLATED TO PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AROUND              
EARLY SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE              
AREA...SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR BY AROUND           
16-18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WILL BECOME                
NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY             
REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS SAT AND DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE END            
OF THE FCST.                                                                    
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
ADDED BEAVER...OCHILTREE AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES TO THE SNOW ADVISORY.            
CALLS UP TO BEAVER REVEAL THAT THERE IS 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE                 
GROUND NOW. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT MORE SNOW IS                
HEADED TOWARD THIS AREA...THEREFORE THE SNOW ADVISORY.                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE           
SAME AREA. SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE               
SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH THE           
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAM MOVING OVER SHOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL           
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. 1 TO 3 INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE              
EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND                  
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO             
ADRIAN.                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO                
GENERATED BY A S/WV TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXPECT THIS            
AREA OF SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. THUS INSERTED PREVAILING        
LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS INITIALLY. APPEARS THE BEST                
FRONTOGENICAL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES                
WHERE CIGS CAN DETERIORATE TO IFR. DID ALSO MENTION IFR CIGS AT KAMA IN         
A TEMPO GROUP DUE TO A 90 KT JET STREAK THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE                
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. POINT FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A              
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF FREEZING           
FOG ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER 12Z...EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END            
AS THE S/WV PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE LIFT DIMINISHES. CONFIDENCE IN           
CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY IS RATHER LOW...SO HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS             
FROM 13Z ON.                                                                    
CLK                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FEW HOUR           
WINDOW WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW FALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.             
WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO           
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES...WITH ABQ RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW MOVING            
EAST ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE. MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN TO END THE                
PRECIP OVER THE PANHANDLES...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR DRIER             
AIR TO PREVAIL AFTER 00Z. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THE BAND OF            
SNOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS ABLE TO TRAVEL BEFORE BEING CONFIDENT           
IN EXTENDING THE SNOW ADVISORY. MODELS INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT             
WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE              
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. FRONT MAY ACT AS A NEW SOURCE FOR LIFT...BUT                
AIRMASS IS DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT ADVISORY           
TO PLAY OUT UNTIL 00Z...AND WILL NOT EXTEND IN TIME FOR NOW. COULD              
STILL SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SO LEFT THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS IN               
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.                                                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND SFC MOISTURE. APPEARS             
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WHILE DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY            
DECREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST             
PANHANDLES BY 12Z...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. SO            
LIKEWISE KEPT THE LOWEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NW. INSERTED MENTION OF               
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBS HAVE             
PERIODICALLY REPORTED FOG AND THINKING THE AIRMASS WILL NEAR                    
SATURATION AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DECREASE. NOT CONFIDENT ON DENSE                  
FOG HOWEVER. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z           
SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO SAMPLE THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH THE SNOW            
AND CLOUD CONTAMINATION TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT                
THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE SOME WHAT TOMORROW AND WIND SPEEDS           
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT AT 10 TO 15KT. SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR IF           
NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TOMORROW. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR           
SNOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EARLY                   
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. MODELS STILL A BIT UNSURE ON THE SOUTHERLY            
PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...BUT THE GFS AND NAM DO HINT AT              
LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 18Z. INSERTED A THIN ROW OF SLIGHT             
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHER TEXAS PANHANDLE. AFTER THAT...THE                 
MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH THE 12Z                   
RUNS...THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER SHOWING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND WESTERN            
TRACK. IN ADDITION...THE NAM PAINTS SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO THE            
EASTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE GFS/EURO/AND UKMET PULL            
THE LOW MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO...DECIDED TO INSERT NON                  
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE EAST BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE NAM.               
A WARMING TREND COULD THEN BE IN THE WORKS FOR MONDAY AND                       
TUESDAY...IF MID 50S ARE CONSIDERED WARM. NONETHELESS...WITH THE                
UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST...AND THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE              
PANHANDLES...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS               
INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. UPPER FLOW             
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED                
PROVIDING SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW. MEX WAS SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR                     
60. FELT THAT MIGHT BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC SO WENT WITH MID 50S AREA               
WIDE. A STRONGER FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.             
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT TO BE DRY...SO BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE               
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR. APPEAR THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTH OUT OF             
THE GULF OF ALASKA. SO AT THIS POINT...DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE MEX            
AS IT HAD REASONABLE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE THURSDAY FRIDAY TIME FRAME.             
LAST MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE THE POPS FROM THURSDAY. MODELS ARE              
COMING IN DRY WITH THE LATEST RUNS...AND SEEM TO BE PUSHING THE                 
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BACK WITH EACH RUN. SO INSERTED SOME 10 POPS FOR             
THE DAY 7 AND 8 TIME FRAME...AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE NEXT RUN             
HAS IN STORE.                                                                   
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
TX...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...                     
     HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...                     
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.                                       
OK...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                                 
$$                                                                              
05/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
932 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1034MB HIGH CENTERED              
NEAR ROANOKE VA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING FROM WESTERN NEW              
ENGLAND DOWN INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. VERY TIGHT DEWPOINT                   
GRADIENT IS NOTED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST...BUT THE            
ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT IS ANALYZED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY                 
ABOUT 25N...WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP A SLIGHT                   
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING                 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF             
MEXICO. THE 500 MB PATTERN AT 12 UTC ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS                      
DOMINATED BY A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WHOSE AXIS EXTENDS FROM             
A NEAR CUT OFF LOW NEAR TUCSON NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.              
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROF WILL                 
DEPHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN END LATER TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN END               
BECOMING A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.                                   
INTERESTING SET UP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH QUITE A BIT OF            
WEATHER TO DISCUSS. WITH THE MORE RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHERN                       
STREAM...OUR WEATHER WILL BE DERIVED FROM THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER                   
SOUTHERN STREAM. AS THE TROF DEPHASES AND THE SOUTHERN END CUTS OFF             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN            
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS               
FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND STEADY TODAY...WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE                 
ALREADY BEGINNING TO ARRIVE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 12 UTC               
SOUNDING AT KTAE WAS ONLY UP 0.08 INCHES (TO 0.79 INCHES) FROM THE              
LAUNCH JUST 12 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALREADY SEEING UPPER                 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CONVECTION IN THE              
SOUTHWEST GULF. EXPECT TO SEE MOISTURE LEVELS...MAINLY IN THE MID               
AND UPPER LEVELS...RISE THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFTING              
WILL BE ONGOING FROM MID AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE MOIST LIFTING WILL             
INITIALLY BE ELEVATED (305 K SURFACE AND HIGHER). THE 300K AND 295K             
ANALYSES SHOW PARCELS NEEDING TO BE LIFTED 150MB TO 200MB FROM THEIR            
INITIAL POSITIONS TO BECOME SATURATED THROUGH MIDDAY. GIVEN                     
THIS...AND THE ONLY GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE SURFACE LAYER...WILL              
LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 00Z AS CURRENTLY                
INDICATED. WITH CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...AND               
ARRIVING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES                  
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.                                                          
CURRENT ZONE FORECAST HAS PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BOARD. GIVEN THAT            
THE FIRST BATCH OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER IS LARGELY TRANSPARENT (BASED             
ON EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY)...WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS               
TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL ONLY UPDATE            
THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. HAVE A GREAT            
DAY!                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT ALL                  
TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM 25K FT THIS             
MORNING...TO MVFR LEVELS (2-3K FT) LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY TO                
IFR/LIFR LATE TONIGHT. JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL BE TRICKY.             
THE NAM/WRF/RUC HOLD OFF THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT (AND LOWER CIGS)              
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHILE THE GFS (AND MOS) BRING IT IN THIS                     
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR JUST BEFORE            
SUNRISE AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS...BUT THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS             
RAPIDLY MIXING OUT SO LLWS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS ARE AT SCEC CRITERIA AND               
DON`T EXPECT THEM TO LOWER ANY TIME SOON. WILL MONITOR FOR SCA                  
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON THE CURRENT AND FUTURE PRESSURE                       
GRADIENT...DON`T EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE               
THE WESTERN WATERS TO AN ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO            
MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS (AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS)               
TODAY WILL OFFSET THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND KEEP RELATIVE            
HUMIDITY VALUES FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                             
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1038 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...12Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOW            
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LYING BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                  
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.  WEAK               
MID-LEVEL WAVE IS CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND             
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN                            
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN U.P./AND LOWER MICHIGAN IN A POCKET OF WEAK                  
-DIVQ.  12Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST PROFILE ABOVE 700MB WITH                 
SUBTLE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS IN A WAA REGIME THAT HAS HELPED                
850MB TEMPS WARM TO -9C.  UPSTREAM 12Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWS A SIMILAR             
TALE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C AND A MOIST PROFILE            
ABOVE 900MB.  THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 17C AND              
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6KFT HAS ALLOWED SW BAND OF LES TO CONTINUE            
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE FROM NORTHPORT TO PELLSTON              
WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.                           
MEANWHILE...WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE...WIND GUSTS AT THE                
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BUOY HAVE BEEN SLOWING INCREASING INTO THE               
UPPER 20S THIS MORNING.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE             
AROUND LAKE EFFECT AND MARINE HEADLINES.                                        
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST IN RESPECT TO                  
HEADLINES.  MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE REST OF THE             
DAY WITH 850-700MB RH REMAINING ABOVE 90 PCT AHEAD OF IT WHILE                  
INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-9KFT WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE               
JUDGING BY UPSTREAM ACARS DATA OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  DELTA T`S               
MAY TAKE A SLIGHT HIT TODAY BY A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE                 
850MB TEMPS AROUND -7 TO -8C AND DELTA T`S APPROX. 16-17C. THESE                
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT LES ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATUS QUO               
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH 1000-850MB WINDS REMAINING ABOUT 240                 
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD TARGET CHARLEVOIX...EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...AND               
SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTIES.  THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT                   
WARMING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON COULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS                          
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE.  SURFACE TEMPS AT              
AT HARBOR SPRINGS IS AT 34 DEGREES AT 9 AM WHILE LOCAL GUIDANCE                 
SUGGESTS PRECIP TYPE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C AND LAKE TEMP AT 9C            
RIGHT AROUND THE SNOW/MIX LINE.  HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS WILL BE                 
OFFSET BY THE RECENT SNOW PACK AND DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE BL WHICH              
WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY AND SNOWFALL TO                       
ACCUMULATE.  CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 3-5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON FROM                  
CHARLEVOIX TO EMMET TO MACKINAC COUNTIES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO                
LOOK GOOD.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON NW CHARLEVOIX COUNTY FOR                
POTENTIAL HEADLINE UPGRADE IF THE CURRENT BAND DOES NOT MOVE TOO                
MUCH.  WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW PACK FROM MANISTEE UP TO                
LEELANAU COUNTIES...HAVE PLACE A MIX ALONG THE LAKE SHORES IN                   
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 34-36F RANGE.                     
MARINE...WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS                
AFTERNOON INTO THE 35-45 KT RANGE WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT.              
WITH THE CURRENT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE...BELIEVE GALE               
FORCE GUST WILL BE ACHIEVED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  GALES MAY                
VERY WELL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT WILL MAKE THOSE                  
DECISIONS IN THE 4PM ISSUANCE.                                                  
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                              
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007/                         
AVIATION...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SW FLOW COUPLED WITH A SHORT WAVE               
AND SURFACE RESPONSE MOVING THRU NRN MICHIGAN WILL PRODUCE LAKE                 
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST             
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL WILL TARGET THE STRAITS AREA AND THE FAR                    
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE (KPLN). IFR AND AT TIMES LIFR                
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KPLN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH                    
PERIODIC HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE REST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN            
(KAPN AND KTVC) WILL RECEIVE SCT/NMRS SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAINLY VFR            
AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DRIER AIR AND BUILDING SUBSIDENCE WILL            
GRADUALLY ERODE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN                        
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPLN AND VFR                  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KAPN AND KTVC.                                           
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM EST SAT                                              
SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD              
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE STRAITS AREA...BUT HAS SHOWS A              
DOWNWARD TREND IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS A QUICK                  
SHOT OF DRIER AIR SWEEPS THRU THE REGION. DOWNWARD TREND WILL BE                
SHORT-LIVED AS DEEP MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT APPROACHES OUR CWA               
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE RESPONSE.                   
IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE ONGOING SW FLOW LAKE                   
EFFECT EVENT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24                    
HOURS...SPECIFICALLY REGARDING POPS AND ADDITIONAL SNOW                         
ACCUMULATIONS. LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A BREAK IN                 
THE ACTION AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.                       
TODAY AND TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA             
THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE AFTERNOON. LAST COUPLE              
OF IMAGES FROM KAPX 88D INDICATES THE INITIAL STAGES OF MID LEVEL               
MOISTENING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. ENHANCED MID LEVEL                    
MOISTURE EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK THRU WRN UPPER MICHIGAN AND MUCH              
OF WISCONSIN PER UPSTREAM RADARS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGES. SW FLOW               
LAKE EFFECT EVENT IS QUICKLY BECOMING ENHANCED BY INCREASING                    
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. DELTA T`S            
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THRU THIS EVENING. 1000-500 MB RH              
INCREASES TO AROUND 95 PCT BY 18Z TODAY...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB            
TO AROUND 10 KFT. MAX 700-500 MB DIV-Q WILL BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED                 
TOWARD EVENING...AT WHICH TIME RH WILL BE DECREASING AND LOW LEVEL              
WAA WILL BEGIN TO ERODE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT            
THE STRAITS AREA AND FAR NW LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS WILL SEE              
AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AND               
MOST PERSISTENT SNOW FALLING ACROSS EMMET...CHEBOYGAN AND MACKINAC              
COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING HEADLINES FOR THESE COUNTIES. WILL              
ALSO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR CHARLEVOIX COUNTY FOR TODAY AS WRN                   
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. HAVE               
REWORKED GRIDS FOR TODAY TO INCREASE POPS AND EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS.            
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVEN             
INTO THIS EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE-BASED WARM LAYER              
WILL TRY TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 2 KFT BY EVENING. HOWEVER...THINK DYNAMIC            
COOLER AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIP MAY OFFSET ANY LOW LEVEL WAA            
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. DRY AIR...SUBSIDENCE...            
FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL WAA/DIMINISHING OVER-LAKE               
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR TONIGHT FOR W/SW FLOW                 
AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINING AOB AN INCH. FOR            
MARINE INTERESTS...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL NEARSHORE                
ZONES AS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 35 TO 40            
KTS.                                                                            
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING...DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL               
WAA WILL BRING AN END TO ALL REMAINING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP BY 12Z                
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH                   
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM                
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S COURTESY OF ONGOING WAA. LOW            
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.             
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PAR FOR THE COURSE WHEN YOU HAVE SUCH                
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...WITH POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH                 
NORTHEAST EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...A CHALLENGING AND QUESTION            
RIDDLED FORECAST. EARLY MORNING NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR                
IMAGERY SHOWS PRIMARY PLAYERS OF INTEREST...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN              
THE EXTENDED...AS A SHARP NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE            
NUNAVUT REGION OF CANADA AND DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST             
SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN DECENT                   
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AS AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN                 
STREAM WAVE DIVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH            
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SEPARATION OF THESE SYSTEMS TO PREVENT PHASING             
UNTIL WELL EAST OF THE REGION...THUS FAVORING A FARTHER SOUTH                   
TRAJECTORY OF THE SOUTHERN LOW UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.            
THIS FAVORS CURRENT CHANCE POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY                    
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE QUICKLY GOES DOWNHILL BEYOND MONDAY...                    
ESPECIALLY WITH AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE             
FEATURES...AS IT CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. LATEST ECMWF A                 
LITTLE MORE AMBITIOUS IN THIS REGARD THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...SHOWING              
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER WESTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH GRADUALLY FILLS AS IT PIVOT SOUTHEAST.              
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH                  
INTERMOUNTAIN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION LEADING TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS              
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS SIGHTS SET ON THE                  
NORTHERN LAKES FOR THURSDAY. EXACT TIMING...STRENGTH... AND                     
PLACEMENT YET TO BE DETERMINED SO WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL FORECAST                
CONTINUITY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ADDING WELL AGREED UPON WAA LIGHT            
SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.                                     
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-          
     017-019.                                                                   
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016.           
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.            
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.                        
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
647 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SNOW TODAY.                                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA              
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS            
TO A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. A STEEP RIDGE IS OVER THE                   
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER              
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE TROUGH ARE                
OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHER                  
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN.                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE HIGH OVER EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC                
STATES WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY                
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A DEEP LOW IS OVER WESTERN            
HUDSON BAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA              
AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK TROUGH WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF THE            
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND                  
EASTERN NEBRASKA.                                                               
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS                
WILL THE SURFACE REFLECTION. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN               
ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.              
HOWEVER...THE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T WILL STILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE            
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE              
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SUPPORT BRING SOME SNOW TO THE              
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT IT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY ABOVE               
850MB AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO WHAT COMES               
FROM THE LAKE. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OUT OF THE               
SOUTHWEST SO MOST OF THE LES WILL OCCUR ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 280K ISENTROPIC WINDS               
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY THUS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD                
STILL GET SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD ONLY              
RECEIVE LIGHT AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. A 40 KNOTS LOW                 
LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE                
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTS MIXING THE WINDS TO SURFACE...WHICH WILL            
REACH GALE FORCE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.                                            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT                  
SETTING UP MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. MID LEVEL                
INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EAST AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL ACROSS               
WESTERN CONUS IN THE ZONAL FLOW AND REACH NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST            
MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH INTO             
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE                 
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT                      
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE A MORE SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF             
THE FRONT. THE CRITICAL FACTOR HERE WILL THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.            
THE LOCALLY GENERATE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF CONTINUES TO PLACE THE                 
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE FIELD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE                    
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN IS SUPPORTING THIS                    
SCENARIO AS WELL WHILE THE NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL POSITION               
BUT IS A LITTLE DRIER. THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT              
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL              
WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.                                                   
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN PART OF             
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL            
MOVE TO NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT               
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL                   
SYSTEM. LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO               
HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR            
WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PER NAM/GFS/GEM. ONE            
BRANCH OF THE LOW JET WILL BE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WHILE THE OTHER              
IS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS OVER THE LAKE              
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.                                                           
THE SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE               
THE SURFACE LOW RELOCATES OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE FRONT WILL             
CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A             
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI                   
CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE                   
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE                 
NORTHWEST OVER THE LAKE AND THE 850MB DELTA-T WILL BE AROUND 14C.               
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE FORECAST             
BY SUNRISE.                                                                     
GEM/GFS/ECMWF WILL BRING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT            
6 HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS SHOWN FOR MONDAY. THUS WILL MOVE UP               
THE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY 6 HOURS. THE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL            
SHOW WHERE THE FAVORED AREAS OF HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL              
OCCUR.                                                                          
A MID LEVEL LOW WILL SWING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS ONTARIO                 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. THE COOLEST AREA              
(-22C) OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO LATE               
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO                     
INCREASE. WINDS WILL FAVOR SOME LES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WITH THE             
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A              
FEW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DUE TO            
THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THE ONTARIO.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTHERN WI                
INTO UPPER MI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.            
BOTH TAF SITES HAVE EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO             
MVFR (OR LESS IN THE CASE OF CMX) AND CEILINGS OF MVFR. THIS SHOULD             
CONTINUE AT BOTH SITES UNTIL THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHES EAST. THE            
NEXT CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER WESTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR MOVING INTO CMX THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER TONIGHT.               
ONE SHIP ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 5 AM EST REPORTED 1/8SM                    
VISIBILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHERE A LAKE EFFECT BAND WOULD BE             
EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING WESTERLY SHOULD BRING THE TROUGH AND BAND               
INTO THE KEWEENAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CONVERGENCE                   
PROGGED TO WEAKEN ALONG THE TROUGH...THE BAND MAY NOT BE AS STRONG.             
THUS ONLY INDICATED VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 3SM. ANOTHER COLD FRONT              
DROPPING SOUTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE               
ANOTHER WEST TO EAST LAKE EFFECT BAND. THIS BAND...IF IT WOULD DROP             
INTO CMX...SHOULD LOWER VISIBILITIES AT LEAST TO IFR OR LOWER ALONG             
WITH RAMPING UP THE WINDS...AND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST FOLLOWS                
THIS IDEA. THE BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH LATE TONIGHT. VFR                
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES                
EXIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 30 KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THANKS TO THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH NOW               
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS                     
MORNING...HOWEVER LURKING TO THE NW IS A STRONGER TROUGH OVER                   
CENTRAL MANITOBA. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO                     
GALES...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 KT OVER THE TYPICAL SW FLOW HIGH              
WIND AREA OF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND            
BECOMES STATIONARY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SE            
SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.              
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...NORTH WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 25 KT                  
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR               
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...THE WIND FORECAST IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...WITH            
THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK ARCTIC AIR SHOT ON TUESDAY MORNING. IF               
THIS PANS OUT...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A BRIEF NW GALE ALONG                  
WITH FREEZING SPRAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.                     
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA IS SHOWN TO MOVE UP INTO THE              
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT                 
TRACK...ANOTHER N TO NW GALE COULD OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE                
HIGH. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD THIS WOULD OCCUR             
WOULD BE LATE WEDNESDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
 GALE WARNING 1 PM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT LSZ162-263-264.                
 GALE WARNING 4 PM TODAY TO 3 AM EST SUN LSZ265>267.                            
 GALE WARNING 4 PM TODAY TO 1 AM EST SUN LSZ243-244.                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
 GALE WARNING 4 PM TODAY TO 1 AM EST SUN LMZ248-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
529 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
VFR LOW CLOUD CEILINGS PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES ATTM.                   
MVFR CEILINGS VICINITY OF KAXN...AS WELL AS TO THE WEST AND                     
NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL WASH OUT TODAY                
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.            
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CEILINGS A LITTLE MORE THAN A THIRD OF THE                 
WAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BEING HANDLED POORLY BY MODEL RH AND                 
MOS GUIDANCE. BREAKS WEST OF KHON...BETWEEN KABR AND KFAR AND WEST              
OF KHCO EXPECTED TO BECOME BIGGER DURING THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL               
RIDGING REPLACES WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. THEREFORE PUSHED CLEARING                  
INTO KAXN AND KRWF AROUND NOON AND INTO KMSP BY MID AFTERNOON AND               
TOWARD EVENING AT KEAU. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING TODAY              
WITH GUSTS TO 18 TO 22 KNOTS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                
MN TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND A SW WIND AT 7-9 KNOTS EXPECTED                
FOR TONIGHT.                                                                    
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007/                         
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND SNOW CHANCES               
DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.                                  
0930Z SAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS                   
PUSHING ACROSS MN. ATTENDANT STRATUS DECK...WHICH MODELS HAVE A                 
VERY POOR HANDLE ON...EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MN BACK TOWARD THE                   
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SNOW SHOWERS CORRELATE WITH THE 20-25 DBZ ECHOES               
ON THE MPX RADAR...AND RUC/NAM/GFS PROGGED LIFT BETWEEN 850-700MB.              
WHILE THIS WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE               
STILL EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN                 
AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...NO MODEL IS CAPTURING                
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ADEQUATELY THIS MORNING. MORE                   
SPECIFICALLY...THE 00Z/24 GFS PROGGED 925MB LEVEL RH VALUES OF 45               
PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 06Z...WHERE AN OVERCAST                  
DECK CIRCA 3K FEET WAS REALIZED. ALTHOUGH THE RH PROG WAS TOO                   
DRY...THE 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL ON SATELLITE WAS BEGINNING TO SHOW              
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRY WEDGE EXPANDING INTO EASTERN NORTH                     
DAKOTA. THEREFORE...THINK THAT THE GFS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING...AND              
MAY SEE MORE CLEARING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE AS                       
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE STILL               
GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE SKY COVER FOR TODAY...WITH CLOUDY TO               
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD                 
COVER CONCERNS...AND PERSISTENCE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE              
ALSO UNDERCUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE                  
MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED.                                                         
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE               
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO +4                     
CELSIUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.               
ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE CWA TO WARM IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ON                      
SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                     
YIELDING DECENT MIXING POTENTIAL. A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE NOT              
OUT OF THE QUESTION.                                                            
BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS FEATURE A SHORTWAVE DIPPING DOWN FROM CANADA              
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE                    
AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE TRACK/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE                
MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATIVE/SUPPORTIVE              
OF 30 POPS FOR SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
534 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS WILL TREND INTO IFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY              
AND REMAIN FOR THE MOST IFR...POSSIBLE GOING LIFR...THROUGH 12Z                 
SUNDAY.  STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH               
TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER                     
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP WITH TIME...LOWERING CIGS THROUGH MVFR TO            
IFR AROUND MIDDAY. AS THE PRECIPITATION GEARS UP LATER TODAY...CIGS             
AND VIS WILL FALL...AND SOMETIMES GO LIFR DURING THE AFTERNOON OR               
DEFINITELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                                          
FLIGHTS TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL               
FIND IFR CIGS/VIS AND SNOW OR SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN TODAY                       
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY SNOW TONIGHT. AREAS NORTH THROUGH EAST AND              
SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TAF CONDITIONS OF KACT OR               
KDFW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
452 AM CST.                                                                     
COMPLEX FORECAST...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN DEALING WITH                     
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER IN TEXAS. OVERNIGHT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE                
TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER...AND LATEST RUC FORECASTS AND ACARS DATA               
SHOW TEMPS RIGHT AT FREEZING FROM 900 TO 700 MB OVER DFW...WITH A               
GRADUAL WARM-UP OCCURRING NEAR 850 MB DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.                    
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT AN 850 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP                
TODAY AND BISECT THE CWA. ON THE SOUTHERN/WARM SIDE...TREMENDOUS                
WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS FLOW STRENGTHENS TO               
40KT. THIS AIR WILL BE FORCED UP AND OVER THE COLD LAYER AT THE                 
SURFACE AND ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.               
SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN THE SE ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE               
OVER AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ON THE NORTHERN/COLD SIDE                
OF THE 850 TROUGH...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND KEEP LOW-              
MID LEVEL TEMPS MUCH COOLER AND FLIRTING WITH FREEZING. A WINTRY                
MIX IS POSSIBLE TODAY GENERALLY NW OF A SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE.               
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND NO SNOW/ICE               
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED.                          
MODELS SUGGEST AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER /OR WARM NOSE/ WILL DEVELOP              
AND ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE                  
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...                
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEVELOPING                   
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AFTER SUNSET. THIS PRECIPITATION                   
WILL BE ALL SNOW IN THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING                 
THE SURFACE DUE TO THE LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER...                
THE MELTING OF FROZEN HYDROMETEORS OVER TIME WILL FORCE THE                     
TEMPERATURE TO FREEZING AS LATENT HEAT IS ABSORBED. THIS IS                     
LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNDER BANDS OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE               
MODELS DO INDICATE OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MODEL                   
SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS SHOWS A RAIN/SNOW MIX NW               
OF A COMANCHE TO BOWIE LINE TONIGHT. HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW COULD                 
OCCUR AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE              
GROUND. THEREFORE...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM               
9 PM TO 9 AM FOR THE NW COUNTIES AS TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED FOR A              
FEW HOURS. GROUND TEMPS ARE WARM AND COLD ADVECTION IS LACKING SO               
WOULD EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO GRADUALLY MELT AWAY SUNDAY. HAVE               
INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE CENTRAL ZONES EARLY SUNDAY              
AS THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES THAT SURVIVE THE TRIP DOWN...BUT             
WARM LAYER SHOULD BE MORE STOUT. SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE CENTRAL                 
ZONES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.                 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF THE              
CWA WILL GET DRY SLOTTED WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS ENDING SUNDAY                   
MORNING AND HAVE DIALED DOWN THE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF               
SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING RIGHT OVER NW ZONES SUNDAY EVENING                
AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING FORCED VIA DYNAMIC LIFTING...A                     
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE NW OF A SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE.                
THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF WRAPAROUND SNOW AS THE UPPER               
LOW EXITS. STILL 36-48 HOURS AWAY...SO WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE.               
AFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS WE WILL SEE A QUICK WARM UP WITH SW FLOW              
IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A                   
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A COOL DOWN. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL                    
RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW.                     
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  43  37  43  36  60 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
WACO, TX              44  38  45  38  60 / 100 100  50  20  10                  
PARIS, TX             43  37  43  37  55 / 100 100  80  60  10                  
DENTON, TX            42  36  42  35  60 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          42  37  43  36  58 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
DALLAS, TX            43  37  43  37  59 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
TERRELL, TX           43  38  44  39  59 / 100 100  60  50  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         43  39  45  37  60 / 100 100  60  30  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            44  38  45  36  61 / 100 100  50  20  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST                      
SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
92/75                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
452 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMPLEX FORECAST...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN DEALING WITH                     
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER IN TEXAS. OVERNIGHT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE                
TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER...AND LATEST RUC FORECASTS AND ACARS DATA               
SHOW TEMPS RIGHT AT FREEZING FROM 900 TO 700 MB OVER DFW...WITH A               
GRADUAL WARM-UP OCCURRING NEAR 850 MB DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.                    
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT AN 850 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP                
TODAY AND BISECT THE CWA. ON THE SOUTHERN/WARM SIDE...TREMENDOUS                
WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS FLOW STRENGTHENS TO               
40KT. THIS AIR WILL BE FORCED UP AND OVER THE COLD LAYER AT THE                 
SURFACE AND ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.               
SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN THE SE ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE               
OVER AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ON THE NORTHERN/COLD SIDE                
OF THE 850 TROUGH...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND KEEP LOW-              
MID LEVEL TEMPS MUCH COOLER AND FLIRTING WITH FREEZING. A WINTRY                
MIX IS POSSIBLE TODAY GENERALLY NW OF A SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE.               
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND NO SNOW/ICE               
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED.                          
MODELS SUGGEST AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER /OR WARM NOSE/ WILL DEVELOP              
AND ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE                  
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...                
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEVELOPING                   
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AFTER SUNSET. THIS PRECIPITATION                   
WILL BE ALL SNOW IN THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING                 
THE SURFACE DUE TO THE LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER...                
THE MELTING OF FROZEN HYDROMETEORS OVER TIME WILL FORCE THE                     
TEMPERATURE TO FREEZING AS LATENT HEAT IS ABSORBED. THIS IS                     
LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNDER BANDS OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE               
MODELS DO INDICATE OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MODEL                   
SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS SHOWS A RAIN/SNOW MIX NW               
OF A COMANCHE TO BOWIE LINE TONIGHT. HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW COULD                 
OCCUR AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE              
GROUND. THEREFORE...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM               
9 PM TO 9 AM FOR THE NW COUNTIES AS TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED FOR A              
FEW HOURS. GROUND TEMPS ARE WARM AND COLD ADVECTION IS LACKING SO               
WOULD EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO GRADUALLY MELT AWAY SUNDAY. HAVE               
INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE CENTRAL ZONES EARLY SUNDAY              
AS THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES THAT SURVIVE THE TRIP DOWN...BUT             
WARM LAYER SHOULD BE MORE STOUT. SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE CENTRAL                 
ZONES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.                 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF THE              
CWA WILL GET DRY SLOTTED WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS ENDING SUNDAY                   
MORNING AND HAVE DIALED DOWN THE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF               
SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING RIGHT OVER NW ZONES SUNDAY EVENING                
AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING FORCED VIA DYNAMIC LIFTING...A                     
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE NW OF A SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE.                
THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF WRAPAROUND SNOW AS THE UPPER               
LOW EXITS. STILL 36-48 HOURS AWAY...SO WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE.               
AFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS WE WILL SEE A QUICK WARM UP WITH SW FLOW              
IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A                   
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A COOL DOWN. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL                    
RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW.                     
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  43  37  43  36  60 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
WACO, TX              44  38  45  38  60 / 100 100  50  20  10                  
PARIS, TX             43  37  43  37  55 / 100 100  80  60  10                  
DENTON, TX            42  36  42  35  60 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          42  37  43  36  58 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
DALLAS, TX            43  37  43  37  59 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
TERRELL, TX           43  38  44  39  59 / 100 100  60  50  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         43  39  45  37  60 / 100 100  60  30  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            44  38  45  36  61 / 100 100  50  20  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST                      
SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
92/75                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
404 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A            
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE CWA ATTM WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL                 
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST.  SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN                  
SURGING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND                    
CREATING A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER             
OF THE CWA.  BUT THE MAIN SHOW HAS BEEN THE SW LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER            
MICHIGAN.  SNOW REPORTS ACROSS EMMETT...CHEBOYGAN...AND MACKINAC                
COUNTIES INDICATED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING            
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOCATED WITHIN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN HARBOR                 
SPRINGS AND LEVERING.  EM IN MACKINAC COUNTY REVEALED NUMEROUS                  
ACCIDENTS ALONG M-134 NEAR CEDARVILLE WHERE 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS            
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.  AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE                     
EXITS...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN ARE IN THE PROCESS OF             
CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  ACARS SOUNDINGS REVEAL INVERSION              
HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 9KFT BUT LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NORTH                  
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4KFT.  MEANWHILE...VARIOUS SHIP REPORTS              
AND BUOYS INDICATE AN OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUST IS OCCURRING OVER              
THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.  LAKE EFFECT AND MARINE              
HEADLINES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.                      
TONIGHT...WEAK SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION               
AND WILL DRAG ALL THE MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT.  850-700MB RH            
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL DECREASE FROM 45-65 PCT EARLY THIS             
EVENING TO 35-45 PCT BY OVERNIGHT WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH FROM            
8KFT TO UNDER 3KFT...WITH MOST OF THE CRASHING OCCURRING DURING THE             
EVENING.  850MB TEMPS ALSO MODERATE FROM THEIR NEAR -8C LEVELS THIS             
AFTERNOON TO ABOUT -4C BY 12Z.  THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A                      
DIMINISHING TREND IN LES ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY                   
SHUTTING OFF BY 12Z.  WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE NOW             
REACHING WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION               
WHETHER TO EXTEND HEADLINES THROUGH THE EVENING.  EITHER WAY...WILL             
BUMP UP SNOW CHANCES TO NUMEROUS ACROSS EMMET/CHEBOYGAN AND EASTERN             
CHIP COUNTIES THROUGH MID-EVENING...BEFORE TRIMMING TO FLURRIES                 
OVERNIGHT.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO AN INCH MOSTLY               
BETWEEN HARBOR SPRINGS AND LEVERING.  ELSEWHERE...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING                 
BEFORE EXITING BY 12Z SUN.  MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SKIRT BY THE            
AREA TO THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH OF THE               
STRAITS THE ENTIRE NIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.             
TOMORROW...SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL GET SHEARED APART AS            
IT MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING A COLD FRONT                
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  TO THE SOUTH              
OF THE COLD FRONT...SW WINDS AND WAA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UP 850MB            
TEMPS TO THE -3C TO 0C RANGE DURING THE DAY.  MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS            
BROUGHT IN BY THE JET STREAM WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE NORTH WHILE             
THE 850-700MB RH FALLS BETWEEN 25-35 PCT BY THE END OF THE DAY.  LOW            
LEVEL INSTABILITY PROBABLY IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS             
ACROSS SW FLOW REGIMES IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR            
AND DIURNAL MIXING CAUSE THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH.  THEREFORE...A               
GENERAL DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND WILL BE OBSERVED AND WILL KEEP              
DRY CONDITIONS GOING...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S               
SW.                                                                             
MPC                                                                             
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER LOOKS ON TAP FOR              
THIS PERIOD. INITIAL FOCUS COMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY            
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL                   
RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO SHOVE A WEAK FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE            
TO WORK WITH...BUT PRONOUNCED AREA OF 900-800MB FRONTOGENESIS GIVEN             
VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE (READINGS LIKELY IN THE LOWER              
TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO) WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO                   
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS PROVIDE AN INCREASE             
IN CLOUDS. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A HALF BAD DAY             
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS AREA FALLS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS - FRONT TO THE              
NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UPPER WAVE OVER              
FAR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON KICKING OUT THROUGH THE                  
PLAINS. TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS FAIRLY "WARM" WITH H85 TEMPS                   
MODERATING TO AROUND -1C UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND WITH              
AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S A            
PRETTY GOOD BET. THINGS HEAD DOWNHILL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE              
AFTERNOON AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE OHIO                      
VALLEY...WITH INCREASING 700-500MB -DIVQ AXIS AND MID LEVEL BAND OF             
FRONTOGENESIS ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. STILL A FEW                 
QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY JUST WHERE WILL              
PRECIP END UP AND WHAT TYPE WILL IT BE? GIVEN NATURE OF PRECIP                  
DRIVEN BY FGEN...WOULD OBVIOUSLY EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF...AND                    
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING 15Z SREF) HAS BEEN ADAMANT ABOUT JUST             
BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH THE SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVE PRECIP.                  
FORECAST RAOBS AND EXPECTED WARMISH START LEAD TO A CONTINUED                   
MENTION OF RAIN WITH THE LOWEST 2KFT PROGGED ABOVE FREEZING.                    
HOWEVER...COLD AIR NOT FAR AWAY (REFERENCE ABOVE) AND WOULD EXPECT              
ANYTHING THAT CONTINUES TO CHANGE TO SNOW QUITE QUICKLY. SYSTEM                 
LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURED LAST WEEK...ONLY MORE SUPPRESSED BUT              
STILL SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.                                          
BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP FOR MORE OF THE REGION APPEARS TO COME ON                 
TUESDAY AS SECONDARY PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PROGGED TO DIVE            
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ECMWF HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH             
THIS TREND...AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE 00/12Z GEFS MEAN. IN                    
TYPICALLY CLIPPER FASHION...THIS ONE MAY TURN OUT TO BE A BIT OF A              
NUISANCE GIVEN PROGGED DECENT 850-700MB FRONTOGENETICAL AXIS SETTING            
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE AREA...WHILE LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMES INTO PLAY             
PER H85 TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT -13C OR SO. THAT IS...ASSUMING THE ECMWF            
IS ONTO THE RIGHT IDEA...AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A MUCH FLATTER                
WAVE PASSING HARMLESSLY TO THE NORTH. THE KEY APPEARS TO BE THE                 
DEGREE OF RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC/CANADIAN                        
NORTHWEST...WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST WILL BE            
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PENETRATE FARTHER             
SOUTH. GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES...PREFER TO HOLD WITH                 
SMALL POPS AT THIS JUNCTURE.                                                    
LATER PERIODS (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ANOTHER CHALLENGING            
FORECAST IN THE WORKS FOR THE EXTENDED...WITH QUESTIONS ABOUNDING               
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL AS DAILY TEMPERATURES.                   
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY AN                 
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LURKS NOT TOO             
FAR AWAY. INITIAL CHALLENGE COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH            
PACIFIC ENERGY PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...                   
INCITING LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW IS             
THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT              
AS FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PER                 
DEVELOPING STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA. MODEL                  
SOLUTIONS QUITE VARIED WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY HOW THIS WHOLE THING             
WILL PLAY OUT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A WEAK SURFACE FEATURES WHILE            
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEYS IN ON A MUCH MORE PHASED/AMPLIFIED UPPER                
SYSTEM...AND A MORE PRONOUNCED ACCOMPANYING SURFACE SYSTEM. LIKELY              
STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WOULD CERTAINLY ARGUE TO A MORE WOUND UP                
SYSTEM...AND ALONG THE LINES OF HPC...PREFER TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF             
THIS GO AROUND. EITHER WAY...HOWEVER...THE END RESULT WILL BE                   
HEIGHTENED CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT REVVS UP LATE                
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER FORCING CATCHES UP ON THURSDAY TO SHOVE WHAT                
SHOULD BE A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. PER                    
FORECAST RAOBS OF EITHER SCENARIO...PTYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY                    
SNOW...THOUGH PENDING EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...COULD FORESEE            
SOME RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO SNEAK IN AHEAD            
OF THE COLD FRONT.                                                              
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...APPEARS THE LAKE             
EFFECT MACHINE WILL BE GOING FULL FORCE AS INITIAL SHOT OF QUITE                
COLD AIR (H85 TEMPS PROGGED -16C TO -18C) DROPS INTO THE REGION PER             
BRIEF CROSS-POLAR SETUP WITH POLAR VORTEX DROPPING ACROSS HUDSON BAY            
WHILE STRONG ALASKA RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. SETUP NOT OVERLY STABLE...                
HOWEVER...AS ENERGY PROGGED TO BRIEFLY DISRUPT THE OVERALL MEAN                 
RIDGE OVER ALASKA...WHILE SECONDARY ENERGY DROPS INTO THE WESTERN               
CONUS...EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE INTIAL SHOT OF COLD EAST. THAT                 
SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MENTION                   
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LOCATIONS AS                  
OVERLL CYCLONE FLOW REGIME PERSISTS AND MOISTURE REMAINS                        
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP (900-700MB RH GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT). AS FOR                
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WILL SHOW FALLING TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON              
AS PLENTIFUL COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY...WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 20S            
ON FRIDAY UNDER CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS. LOOKING AHEAD JUST BIT                     
MORE...PERHAPS AN EVEN BIGGER STORY LOOMS JUST AFTER THE CURERNT                
FORECAST PERIOD ENDS...WITH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINING IN VERY                
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING REDEVELOPMENT (AND BETTER SUSTAINMENT) OF              
CROSS POLAR FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AS VERY STRONG              
RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS THROUGH ALASKA...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY            
COLD AIR MAKING AN APPEARANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.                    
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2007/                        
AVIATION...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SW FLOW COUPLED WITH A SHORT WAVE               
AND SURFACE RESPONSE MOVING THRU NRN MICHIGAN WILL PRODUCE LAKE                 
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST             
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL WILL TARGET THE STRAITS AREA AND THE FAR                    
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE (KPLN). IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS               
CAN BE EXPECTED AT KPLN THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODIC HEAVY              
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DROP VSBYS TO A 1/2SM OR LESS. TVC WILL                
ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN LESS PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WHILE             
APN LOOKS VFR THROUGH THE DAY.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS                
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST            
THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                 
     MIZ015-017-019.                                                            
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016.          
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.            
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.                        
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1215 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                     
AVIATION...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SW FLOW COUPLED WITH A SHORT WAVE               
AND SURFACE RESPONSE MOVING THRU NRN MICHIGAN WILL PRODUCE LAKE                 
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST             
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL WILL TARGET THE STRAITS AREA AND THE FAR                    
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE (KPLN). IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS               
CAN BE EXPECTED AT KPLN THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODIC HEAVY              
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DROP VSBYS TO A 1/2SM OR LESS. TVC WILL                
ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN LESS PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WHILE             
APN LOOKS VFR THROUGH THE DAY.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS                
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST            
THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST SAT                                             
12Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHERN             
MICHIGAN LYING BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC              
STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.  WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE             
IS CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND MID-UPPER LEVEL            
MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN U.P./AND                
LOWER MICHIGAN IN A POCKET OF WEAK -DIVQ.  12Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS A             
MOIST PROFILE ABOVE 700MB WITH SUBTLE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS IN A            
WAA REGIME THAT HAS HELPED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -9C.  UPSTREAM 12Z               
GRB SOUNDING SHOWS A SIMILAR TALE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB TEMPS              
AROUND -7C AND A MOIST PROFILE ABOVE 900MB.  THIS MOISTURE COMBINED             
WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 17C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6KFT HAS                 
ALLOWED SW BAND OF LES TO CONTINUE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN                
SHORELINE FROM NORTHPORT TO PELLSTON WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN                    
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.  MEANWHILE...WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT              
IN PLACE...WIND GUSTS AT THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BUOY HAVE BEEN              
SLOWING INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 20S THIS MORNING.  MAIN FORECAST              
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND LAKE EFFECT AND MARINE HEADLINES.           
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST IN RESPECT TO                  
HEADLINES.  MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE REST OF THE             
DAY WITH 850-700MB RH REMAINING ABOVE 90 PCT AHEAD OF IT WHILE                  
INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-9KFT WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE               
JUDGING BY UPSTREAM ACARS DATA OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  DELTA T`S               
MAY TAKE A SLIGHT HIT TODAY BY A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE                 
850MB TEMPS AROUND -7 TO -8C AND DELTA T`S APPROX. 16-17C. THESE                
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT LES ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATUS QUO               
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH 1000-850MB WINDS REMAINING ABOUT 240                 
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD TARGET CHARLEVOIX...EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...AND               
SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTIES.  THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT                   
WARMING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON COULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS                          
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE.  SURFACE TEMPS AT              
AT HARBOR SPRINGS IS AT 34 DEGREES AT 9 AM WHILE LOCAL GUIDANCE                 
SUGGESTS PRECIP TYPE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C AND LAKE TEMP AT 9C            
RIGHT AROUND THE SNOW/MIX LINE.  HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS WILL BE                 
OFFSET BY THE RECENT SNOW PACK AND DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE BL WHICH              
WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY AND SNOWFALL TO                       
ACCUMULATE.  CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 3-5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON FROM                  
CHARLEVOIX TO EMMET TO MACKINAC COUNTIES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO                
LOOK GOOD.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON NW CHARLEVOIX COUNTY FOR                
POTENTIAL HEADLINE UPGRADE IF THE CURRENT BAND DOES NOT MOVE TOO                
MUCH.  WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW PACK FROM MANISTEE UP TO                
LEELANAU COUNTIES...HAVE PLACE A MIX ALONG THE LAKE SHORES IN                   
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 34-36F RANGE.                     
MARINE...WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS                
AFTERNOON INTO THE 35-45 KT RANGE WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT.              
WITH THE CURRENT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE...BELIEVE GALE               
FORCE GUST WILL BE ACHIEVED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  GALES MAY                
VERY WELL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT WILL MAKE THOSE                  
DECISIONS IN THE 4PM ISSUANCE.                                                  
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                              
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM EST SAT                                             
SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD              
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE STRAITS AREA...BUT HAS SHOWS A              
DOWNWARD TREND IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS A QUICK                  
SHOT OF DRIER AIR SWEEPS THRU THE REGION. DOWNWARD TREND WILL BE                
SHORT-LIVED AS DEEP MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT APPROACHES OUR CWA               
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE RESPONSE.                   
IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE ONGOING SW FLOW LAKE                   
EFFECT EVENT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24                    
HOURS...SPECIFICALLY REGARDING POPS AND ADDITIONAL SNOW                         
ACCUMULATIONS. LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A BREAK IN                 
THE ACTION AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.                       
TODAY AND TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA             
THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE AFTERNOON. LAST COUPLE              
OF IMAGES FROM KAPX 88D INDICATES THE INITIAL STAGES OF MID LEVEL               
MOISTENING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. ENHANCED MID LEVEL                    
MOISTURE EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK THRU WRN UPPER MICHIGAN AND MUCH              
OF WISCONSIN PER UPSTREAM RADARS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGES. SW FLOW               
LAKE EFFECT EVENT IS QUICKLY BECOMING ENHANCED BY INCREASING                    
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. DELTA T`S            
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THRU THIS EVENING. 1000-500 MB RH              
INCREASES TO AROUND 95 PCT BY 18Z TODAY...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB            
TO AROUND 10 KFT. MAX 700-500 MB DIV-Q WILL BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED                 
TOWARD EVENING...AT WHICH TIME RH WILL BE DECREASING AND LOW LEVEL              
WAA WILL BEGIN TO ERODE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT            
THE STRAITS AREA AND FAR NW LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS WILL SEE              
AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AND               
MOST PERSISTENT SNOW FALLING ACROSS EMMET...CHEBOYGAN AND MACKINAC              
COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING HEADLINES FOR THESE COUNTIES. WILL              
ALSO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR CHARLEVOIX COUNTY FOR TODAY AS WRN                   
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. HAVE               
REWORKED GRIDS FOR TODAY TO INCREASE POPS AND EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS.            
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVEN             
INTO THIS EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE-BASED WARM LAYER              
WILL TRY TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 2 KFT BY EVENING. HOWEVER...THINK DYNAMIC            
COOLER AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIP MAY OFFSET ANY LOW LEVEL WAA            
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. DRY AIR...SUBSIDENCE...            
FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL WAA/DIMINISHING OVER-LAKE               
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR TONIGHT FOR W/SW FLOW                 
AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINING AOB AN INCH. FOR            
MARINE INTERESTS...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL NEARSHORE                
ZONES AS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 35 TO 40            
KTS.                                                                            
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING...DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL               
WAA WILL BRING AN END TO ALL REMAINING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP BY 12Z                
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH                   
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM                
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S COURTESY OF ONGOING WAA. LOW            
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.             
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PAR FOR THE COURSE WHEN YOU HAVE SUCH                
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...WITH POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH                 
NORTHEAST EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...A CHALLENGING AND QUESTION            
RIDDLED FORECAST. EARLY MORNING NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR                
IMAGERY SHOWS PRIMARY PLAYERS OF INTEREST...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN              
THE EXTENDED...AS A SHARP NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE            
NUNAVUT REGION OF CANADA AND DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST             
SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN DECENT                   
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AS AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN                 
STREAM WAVE DIVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH            
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SEPARATION OF THESE SYSTEMS TO PREVENT PHASING             
UNTIL WELL EAST OF THE REGION...THUS FAVORING A FARTHER SOUTH                   
TRAJECTORY OF THE SOUTHERN LOW UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.            
THIS FAVORS CURRENT CHANCE POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY                    
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE QUICKLY GOES DOWNHILL BEYOND MONDAY...                    
ESPECIALLY WITH AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE             
FEATURES...AS IT CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. LATEST ECMWF A                 
LITTLE MORE AMBITIOUS IN THIS REGARD THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...SHOWING              
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER WESTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH GRADUALLY FILLS AS IT PIVOT SOUTHEAST.              
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH                  
INTERMOUNTAIN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION LEADING TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS              
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS SIGHTS SET ON THE                  
NORTHERN LAKES FOR THURSDAY. EXACT TIMING...STRENGTH... AND                     
PLACEMENT YET TO BE DETERMINED SO WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL FORECAST                
CONTINUITY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ADDING WELL AGREED UPON WAA LIGHT            
SNOW CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.                                     
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-          
     017-019.                                                                   
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016.           
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.            
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.                        
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
338 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOW CLOUDS HAVE JUST ABOUT CLEARED OUT OF CWA...AND FAIRLY DRY                  
COLUMN SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL                  
PROBLEM IS IF LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO SEND SOME OF THE LOW               
CLOUDS OVER IA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. SREF AND RUC HINT               
AT THIS SOMEWHAT BUT WILL ONLY INCREASE SKY GRID LEVELS A SMALL                 
AMOUNT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A MILD AFTERNOOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA                
ON SUNDAY. MIXING FROM AROUND 900 MB ON WRF-NAM YIELDS NEAR 50                  
OVER PART OF SW MN. GFS SOMEWHAT LESS BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO              
CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME FROM NORTH TO                  
SOUTH AS UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS IN                     
CENTRAL MN. SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED OF COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN ON              
TUESDAY WITH NAM SLOWEST. WILL GO MORE ALONG WITH GFS/ECMWF WITH                
OUR AREA BEING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF               
THE PATTERN LATELY. CHANCES FOR SNOW STILL A QUESTION. HAS NOT                  
BEEN MUCH TENDENCY IN THE MODELS TO MERGE THE THE NORTHERN AND                  
SOUTHERN STREAM...SO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW DOES NOT SEEM TO BE IN THE              
CARDS. GFS ENSEMBLE POP TRENDS SEEM TO BE FAVORING EAST CENTRAL MN              
ON INTO NORTHERN OR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH..GFS HINTING               
AT SOME FRONTOGENESIS ON WED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WILL                     
MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS ON WEDNESDAY.                                          
TRENDS TO COLDER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST BY VARIOUS MODELS              
FOR END OF WEEK. SHOULD BE SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AT LEAST IN                   
CENTRAL MN...AND IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW COVER...THEN A REVISION                 
DOWNWARD WOULD BE IN ORDER...POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO. LOOKING LIKE A                
TREND TOWARD A COLD HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
BANK OF MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING/MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST THIS                  
MORNING.  SHOULD SEE VFR AT ALL TAF SITE BY 19-20Z. THEN EXPECT                 
STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE EAST OUT OF WI AREA BY 22Z.  JUST SOME HIGH               
CLOUDS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.  W-SW WINDS             
WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLACK OFF AFTER 23Z.                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/DWE                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1120 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                     
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
BANK OF MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING/MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST THIS                  
MORNING.  SHOULD SEE VFR AT ALL TAF SITE BY 19-20Z. THEN EXPECT                 
STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE EAST OUT OF WI AREA BY 22Z.  JUST SOME HIGH               
CLOUDS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.  W-SW WINDS             
WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLACK OFF AFTER 23Z.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007/                         
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND SNOW CHANCES               
DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.                                  
0930Z SAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS                   
PUSHING ACROSS MN. ATTENDANT STRATUS DECK...WHICH MODELS HAVE A                 
VERY POOR HANDLE ON...EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MN BACK TOWARD THE                   
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SNOW SHOWERS CORRELATE WITH THE 20-25 DBZ ECHOES               
ON THE MPX RADAR...AND RUC/NAM/GFS PROGGED LIFT BETWEEN 850-700MB.              
WHILE THIS WEAKENS SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE               
STILL EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN                 
AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...NO MODEL IS CAPTURING                
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ADEQUATELY THIS MORNING. MORE                   
SPECIFICALLY...THE 00Z/24 GFS PROGGED 925MB LEVEL RH VALUES OF 45               
PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 06Z...WHERE AN OVERCAST                  
DECK CIRCA 3K FEET WAS REALIZED. ALTHOUGH THE RH PROG WAS TOO                   
DRY...THE 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL ON SATELLITE WAS BEGINNING TO SHOW              
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRY WEDGE EXPANDING INTO EASTERN NORTH                     
DAKOTA. THEREFORE...THINK THAT THE GFS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING...AND              
MAY SEE MORE CLEARING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE AS                       
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE STILL               
GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE SKY COVER FOR TODAY...WITH CLOUDY TO               
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD                 
COVER CONCERNS...AND PERSISTENCE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE              
ALSO UNDERCUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE                  
MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED.                                                         
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE               
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO +4                     
CELSIUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.               
ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE CWA TO WARM IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ON                      
SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                     
YIELDING DECENT MIXING POTENTIAL. A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE NOT              
OUT OF THE QUESTION.                                                            
BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS FEATURE A SHORTWAVE DIPPING DOWN FROM CANADA              
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE                    
AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE TRACK/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE                
MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATIVE/SUPPORTIVE              
OF 30 POPS FOR SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1134 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAF DISCUSSION                                                              
LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF                 
THE STATE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND               
EAST TEXAS. RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN BEGINNING TO THIN OUT ACROSS THE               
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS BUT STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF ON-AND-OFF              
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEN SEE A BREAK IN THE                
PRECIPITATION FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE                          
PRECIPITATION STARTS UP AGAIN AROUND 04Z. THIS NEW WAVE OF                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND IS EXPECTED TO              
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BE SHIFTING             
TO THE EAST AND ENDING AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO                   
GROUP FOR LIGHT SNOW BASED ON LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AND MODEL                  
DATA WHICH SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE SURFACE RAPIDLY COOLING                
TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING VALUES. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE                       
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...EXPECT                  
SNOW TO MELT ON IMPACT AND NOT CREATE ANY HAZARDS AT THE SURFACE.               
CEILINGS CURRENTLY REMAIN IN MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FEW IFR SPOTS.                
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO LOWER INTO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL                  
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LIFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE A SLIGHT                          
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY AT KACT                                                
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS                
MORNING.  WE ARE SEEING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ACROSS THE               
NORTHWEST ZONES AS EXPECTED.  WE ARE GETTING A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH            
THE LOSS OF THE WARM NOSE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AS INDICATED ON THE            
LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR DFW AIRPORT. WE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN              
AND SNOW NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER              
EAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL BE SENDING UP AN 18Z                  
SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT              
SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATIONS OR            
TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.                                                
FOR THIS UPDATE WE WILL ADD THE MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX A LITTLE                
FURTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.  WILL ALSO ADJUST              
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY.                                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
534 AM                                                                          
ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS WILL TREND INTO IFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY              
AND REMAIN FOR THE MOST IFR...POSSIBLE GOING LIFR...THROUGH 12Z                 
SUNDAY.  STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH               
TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER                     
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP WITH TIME...LOWERING CIGS THROUGH MVFR TO            
IFR AROUND MIDDAY. AS THE PRECIPITATION GEARS UP LATER TODAY...CIGS             
AND VIS WILL FALL...AND SOMETIMES GO LIFR DURING THE AFTERNOON OR               
DEFINITELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                                          
FLIGHTS TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL               
FIND IFR CIGS/VIS AND SNOW OR SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN TODAY                       
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY SNOW TONIGHT. AREAS NORTH THROUGH EAST AND              
SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TAF CONDITIONS OF KACT OR               
KDFW.                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
452 AM CST.                                                                     
COMPLEX FORECAST...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN DEALING WITH                     
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER IN TEXAS. OVERNIGHT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE                
TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER...AND LATEST RUC FORECASTS AND ACARS DATA               
SHOW TEMPS RIGHT AT FREEZING FROM 900 TO 700 MB OVER DFW...WITH A               
GRADUAL WARM-UP OCCURRING NEAR 850 MB DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.                    
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT AN 850 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP                
TODAY AND BISECT THE CWA. ON THE SOUTHERN/WARM SIDE...TREMENDOUS                
WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS FLOW STRENGTHENS TO               
40KT. THIS AIR WILL BE FORCED UP AND OVER THE COLD LAYER AT THE                 
SURFACE AND ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.               
SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN THE SE ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE               
OVER AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ON THE NORTHERN/COLD SIDE                
OF THE 850 TROUGH...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND KEEP LOW-              
MID LEVEL TEMPS MUCH COOLER AND FLIRTING WITH FREEZING. A WINTRY                
MIX IS POSSIBLE TODAY GENERALLY NW OF A SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE.               
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND NO SNOW/ICE               
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED.                          
MODELS SUGGEST AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER /OR WARM NOSE/ WILL DEVELOP              
AND ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE                  
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...                
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEVELOPING                   
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AFTER SUNSET. THIS PRECIPITATION                   
WILL BE ALL SNOW IN THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING                 
THE SURFACE DUE TO THE LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER...                
THE MELTING OF FROZEN HYDROMETEORS OVER TIME WILL FORCE THE                     
TEMPERATURE TO FREEZING AS LATENT HEAT IS ABSORBED. THIS IS                     
LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNDER BANDS OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE               
MODELS DO INDICATE OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MODEL                   
SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS SHOWS A RAIN/SNOW MIX NW               
OF A COMANCHE TO BOWIE LINE TONIGHT. HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW COULD                 
OCCUR AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE              
GROUND. THEREFORE...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM               
9 PM TO 9 AM FOR THE NW COUNTIES AS TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED FOR A              
FEW HOURS. GROUND TEMPS ARE WARM AND COLD ADVECTION IS LACKING SO               
WOULD EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO GRADUALLY MELT AWAY SUNDAY. HAVE               
INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE CENTRAL ZONES EARLY SUNDAY              
AS THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES THAT SURVIVE THE TRIP DOWN...BUT             
WARM LAYER SHOULD BE MORE STOUT. SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE CENTRAL                 
ZONES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.                 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF THE              
CWA WILL GET DRY SLOTTED WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS ENDING SUNDAY                   
MORNING AND HAVE DIALED DOWN THE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF               
SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING RIGHT OVER NW ZONES SUNDAY EVENING                
AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING FORCED VIA DYNAMIC LIFTING...A                     
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE NW OF A SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE.                
THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF WRAPAROUND SNOW AS THE UPPER               
LOW EXITS. STILL 36-48 HOURS AWAY...SO WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE.               
AFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS WE WILL SEE A QUICK WARM UP WITH SW FLOW              
IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A                   
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A COOL DOWN. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL                    
RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW.                     
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  43  37  43  36  60 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
WACO, TX              44  38  45  38  60 / 100 100  50  20  10                  
PARIS, TX             43  37  43  37  55 / 100 100  80  60  10                  
DENTON, TX            42  36  42  35  60 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          42  37  43  36  58 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
DALLAS, TX            43  37  43  37  59 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
TERRELL, TX           43  38  44  39  59 / 100 100  60  50  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         43  39  45  37  60 / 100 100  60  30  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            44  38  45  36  61 / 100 100  50  20  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST                      
SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
82/75                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1045 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS                
MORNING.  WE ARE SEEING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ACROSS THE               
NORTHWEST ZONES AS EXPECTED.  WE ARE GETTING A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH            
THE LOSS OF THE WARM NOSE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AS INDICATED ON THE            
LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR DFW AIRPORT. WE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN              
AND SNOW NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER              
EAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL BE SENDING UP AN 18Z                  
SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT              
SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATIONS OR            
TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.                                                
FOR THIS UPDATE WE WILL ADD THE MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX A LITTLE                
FURTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.  WILL ALSO ADJUST              
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
534 AM                                                                          
ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS WILL TREND INTO IFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY              
AND REMAIN FOR THE MOST IFR...POSSIBLE GOING LIFR...THROUGH 12Z                 
SUNDAY.  STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH               
TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER                     
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP WITH TIME...LOWERING CIGS THROUGH MVFR TO            
IFR AROUND MIDDAY. AS THE PRECIPITATION GEARS UP LATER TODAY...CIGS             
AND VIS WILL FALL...AND SOMETIMES GO LIFR DURING THE AFTERNOON OR               
DEFINITELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                                          
FLIGHTS TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL               
FIND IFR CIGS/VIS AND SNOW OR SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN TODAY                       
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY SNOW TONIGHT. AREAS NORTH THROUGH EAST AND              
SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TAF CONDITIONS OF KACT OR               
KDFW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
452 AM CST.                                                                     
COMPLEX FORECAST...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN DEALING WITH                     
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER IN TEXAS. OVERNIGHT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE                
TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER...AND LATEST RUC FORECASTS AND ACARS DATA               
SHOW TEMPS RIGHT AT FREEZING FROM 900 TO 700 MB OVER DFW...WITH A               
GRADUAL WARM-UP OCCURRING NEAR 850 MB DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.                    
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT AN 850 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP                
TODAY AND BISECT THE CWA. ON THE SOUTHERN/WARM SIDE...TREMENDOUS                
WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS FLOW STRENGTHENS TO               
40KT. THIS AIR WILL BE FORCED UP AND OVER THE COLD LAYER AT THE                 
SURFACE AND ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.               
SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN THE SE ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE               
OVER AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ON THE NORTHERN/COLD SIDE                
OF THE 850 TROUGH...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND KEEP LOW-              
MID LEVEL TEMPS MUCH COOLER AND FLIRTING WITH FREEZING. A WINTRY                
MIX IS POSSIBLE TODAY GENERALLY NW OF A SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE.               
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND NO SNOW/ICE               
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED.                          
MODELS SUGGEST AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER /OR WARM NOSE/ WILL DEVELOP              
AND ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE                  
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...                
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEVELOPING                   
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AFTER SUNSET. THIS PRECIPITATION                   
WILL BE ALL SNOW IN THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING                 
THE SURFACE DUE TO THE LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER...                
THE MELTING OF FROZEN HYDROMETEORS OVER TIME WILL FORCE THE                     
TEMPERATURE TO FREEZING AS LATENT HEAT IS ABSORBED. THIS IS                     
LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNDER BANDS OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE               
MODELS DO INDICATE OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MODEL                   
SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS SHOWS A RAIN/SNOW MIX NW               
OF A COMANCHE TO BOWIE LINE TONIGHT. HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW COULD                 
OCCUR AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON THE              
GROUND. THEREFORE...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM               
9 PM TO 9 AM FOR THE NW COUNTIES AS TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED FOR A              
FEW HOURS. GROUND TEMPS ARE WARM AND COLD ADVECTION IS LACKING SO               
WOULD EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO GRADUALLY MELT AWAY SUNDAY. HAVE               
INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE CENTRAL ZONES EARLY SUNDAY              
AS THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES THAT SURVIVE THE TRIP DOWN...BUT             
WARM LAYER SHOULD BE MORE STOUT. SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE CENTRAL                 
ZONES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.                 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF THE              
CWA WILL GET DRY SLOTTED WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS ENDING SUNDAY                   
MORNING AND HAVE DIALED DOWN THE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF               
SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING RIGHT OVER NW ZONES SUNDAY EVENING                
AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING FORCED VIA DYNAMIC LIFTING...A                     
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE NW OF A SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE.                
THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF WRAPAROUND SNOW AS THE UPPER               
LOW EXITS. STILL 36-48 HOURS AWAY...SO WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE.               
AFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS WE WILL SEE A QUICK WARM UP WITH SW FLOW              
IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A                   
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A COOL DOWN. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL                    
RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW.                     
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  43  37  43  36  60 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
WACO, TX              44  38  45  38  60 / 100 100  50  20  10                  
PARIS, TX             43  37  43  37  55 / 100 100  80  60  10                  
DENTON, TX            42  36  42  35  60 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          42  37  43  36  58 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
DALLAS, TX            43  37  43  37  59 / 100 100  50  50  10                  
TERRELL, TX           43  38  44  39  59 / 100 100  60  50  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         43  39  45  37  60 / 100 100  60  30  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            44  38  45  36  61 / 100 100  50  20  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST                      
SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
92/75                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
259 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE               
PERIOD.                                                                         
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH              
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM KANSAS INTO WISCONSIN ON ITS                 
BACK SIDE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS FIELD OVER THE             
REMAINING SNOWPACK IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.                    
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THESE CLOUDS WORKING NORTHEAST ON THE SOUTHWEST            
LOW LEVEL WIND...BUT HAVE BEEN ERODING ON THEIR NORTHERN EDGE AS                
THEY APPROACH NORTHEAST IOWA. FARTHER NORTH...MORE STRATO-CUMULUS               
HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH                
ITS BACK EDGE PUSHING STEADILY EASTWARD.                                        
12Z NAM/WRF AND GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS AFTER WHICH            
DIFFERENCES APPEAR WITH RESPECT TO THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND                  
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS OVER THE PLAINS AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS                   
ACROSS THE WEST.                                                                
IN THE NEAR TERM...BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE ON NORTHEAST EXTENT OF              
STRATUS FIELD ACROSS IOWA. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RUC 925MB RELATIVE                
HUMIDITY FIELDS SHOWS THIS AREA CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD              
ACROSS THE REMAINING SNOWFIELD INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.                
WITH SATELLITE TRENDS OF EROSION ON THE NORTH SIDE HAVE OPTED FOR               
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. FARTHER NORTH THE BACK            
EDGE OF THE STRATO CUMULUS DECK NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST              
MINNESOTA AND MODELS CONTINUE THIS WESTWARD TREND THIS EVENING.                 
WITH GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT TONIGHT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP A                
LITTLE AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL                 
HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT AND DID GO A LITTLE ABOVE                  
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.                                                              
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT                       
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO                
AROUND +2 CELSIUS. ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND WITH THE             
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES                
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                     
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH                
ONLY SOME WEAK 850-700MB QG CONVERGENCE. WITH THIS LACK OF MOISTURE             
AND WEAK FORCING EXPECT A DRY PASSAGE WITH ONLY PERHAPS A FEW HIGH              
CLOUDS. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL DROP                      
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE QUIET WEATHER                   
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE                     
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY             
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.                    
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVING TROUBLE IN HANDLING THE NORTHERN AND                
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON DAY 4(WEDNESDAY). ECMWF...WHICH WAS THE               
FAR NORTHERN SOLUTION YESTERDAY IS NOW THE MORE SOUTHERN WITH ITS               
00Z RUN. DPROG/DT OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BIT MORE                     
CONSISTENCY WITH THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND PER NCEP                      
DISCUSSION THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL               
MODELS. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE              
GRIDDED DATABASE. DID ADD THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE                    
SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR FILTER IN            
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH                 
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...                 
OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                   
A MILDER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BLOWING ACROSS A MELTING SNOWPACK               
ACROSS IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI WILL ADVECT A FEW STRATOCUMULUS IN THE              
3000-4000 FT RANGE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS            
WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI INTO FAR SOUTHWEST                    
WI...CLOSER TO THE SNOWPACK. KRST SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF             
THIS CLOUD ADVECTION. HOWEVER...KLSE MAY SEE A FEW STRATOCUMULUS                
FROM TIME TO TIME. HAVE ADDED THIS IN THE KLSE TAF SITE.                        
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS              
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. ONLY A FEW                  
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE KLSE/KRST TAF SITES SUNDAY                
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT AND LONG TERM - JLR                                                       
AVIATION - DAS                                                                  
</pre> wi