AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
555 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES               
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE            
DESERTS THIS EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE               
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHEAST              
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR SUNSHINE AND WARMER               
WEATHER. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR             
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                    
WINDS HAVE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY INVOF COLD FRONT OVER FAR WRN                
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO             
INCLUDE ALL OF CA ZONES AND NRN PTN OF LOWER CO RIVER ZONE IN AZ.               
SEE AWIPS PRODUCT PHXNWPPSR...WMO ID WWUS75 KPSR NPWPSR...FOR LATEST            
DETAILS.                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
STILL PLENTY OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND            
COLD FRONT NOW INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH THERES NOT AS MUCH              
LIFT FOR OUR CWA COMPARED TO NORTHERN AZ...AN APPROACHING VORT MAX              
WAS BEGINNING TO AFFECT OUR AREA. IN FACT...LATEST RUC DEPICTED A               
VORT LOBE STRETCHED OUT FROM NEAR NEEDLES TO LOS ANGELES. SLIGHT                
INCREASES IN DEW POINTS ARE ALSO LIKELY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE                 
INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF THE                 
METRO AREA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LESS               
THAN EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENTS NOW APPROACHING            
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR                  
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK INTO THIS EVENING.                                    
UPPER RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GFS            
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWING HIGHER HEIGHTS THAN LATEST ECMWF.             
WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT            
IN THE MODELS...WITH SOME SPOTS EXPECTING THE FIRST 80F MAX TEMP OF             
THE MONTH.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                               
MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN A SPLIT FLOW                
PATTERN NEAR THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS QUITE             
RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND PREFER TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE                
SOLUTION AND A WEAKER TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA BY FRIDAY               
MORNING. THUS...A DRY WEEK IS STILL EXPECTED FOR ALL ZONES...AND                
EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS...LOOK FOR NO                     
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FEBRUARY 25 0055 UTC (FEBRUARY 24 1755 MST)                                     
SURFACE FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY             
UNDERWAY OVER KIPL...30-40KTS...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT              
03-04Z. LESSER WINDS AT KBLH AND KYUM...20-35KTS...WITH THESE                   
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WELL THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...KPHX/KIWA                
WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING...MOSTLY LESS THAN              
10KTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ANTICIPATED...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 20K              
MSL. MOSTLY CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH            
LESS WIND AT WRN TAF SITES.                                                     
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
FEBRUARY 25 0055Z UTC (FEBRUARY 24 1755 MST)                                    
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND NORTHERN AZ             
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THRU TONIGHT...WITH              
LOCAL GUSTS 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE THRU 03Z. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT                   
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WX THRESHOLDS FROM BEING            
SURPASSED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ020.                      
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030>033.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
SHORT TERM...ESTLE/SIPPLE                                                       
LONG TERM...SIPPLE                                                              
AVIATION...ESTLE                                                                
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
155 PM PST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN             
VALLEY AT NOON /20Z/ WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN 20Z               
SUNDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT ALONG THE EAST SIDE AND                
SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...THE AIRMASS                
SHOULD COOL TO SATURATION IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH AREAS OF FOG               
DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE                   
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM 09-17Z WITH THE                    
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                     
SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING             
ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE             
CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE IN A LOW-LEVEL           
NORTH FLOW OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY...WHICH IS PRODUCING A              
WEAK EDDY IN WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY NEAR COALINGA WHERE THE ANTICLINE            
RIDGE SEPARATES PLEASANT VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.            
ALOFT...THE RUC-40 HAS A +8.8 VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHWESTERN               
FRESNO COUNTY AT 21Z WHICH IS RE-ENFORCING THE SURFACE EDDY AS WELL             
AS HELPING DRAW CLOUDS FROM THE EAST SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTH END. THIS            
HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND DUE TO DECREASED SOLAR                   
HEATING.                                                                        
THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST THE STOCKTON-BAKERSFIELD AND SAN FRANCISCO-            
LAS VEGAS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BEGIN RELAXING AFTER 00Z                
TUESDAY...AND THE RUC-40 FORECASTS THE 500-MB VORTICITY TO MOVE                 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THIS MAY ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO SLIDE EAST               
INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...BUT ALSO WILL REDUCE SUPPORT FOR THESE            
CLOUDS SO EXPECT SOME DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT.                                    
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EAST PACIFIC                  
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO                  
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE                
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR RISING TO AROUND 5820 METERS BY 00Z                 
WEDNESDAY. 850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO WARM             
4-6 C...AND 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES TO RISE ABOUT 50 METERS. THIS               
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TUESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.              
THE MODELS BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST                 
WEDNESDAY AND OVER CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A CLOSED UPPER-            
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THURSDAY. CIRCULATION            
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HANFORD            
WARNING/FORECAST AREA...AND THIS SHOULD OFFSET ANY COOLING FROM                 
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. BOTH THE GFS AND DGEX CONTINUE TO             
SHOW LIMITED MID-LEVEL /700-500-MB/ MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH SO                
EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS.                                                   
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REBOUNDS INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY             
MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH             
DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE                
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND DGEX FASTER THAN THE               
ECMWF...AS WELL AS SHALLOWER. CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH THE FASTER                
TIMING AND WEAKER SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF             
OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY                  
LIMITED TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS...LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH                
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AS A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINATE              
FEATURE OVER THE WEST COAST...EXPECT A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR                 
CONDITIONS IN FOG TONIGHT. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED               
AFTER SUNSET...WILL NOT EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 08Z.             
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE VALLEY UNTIL AFTER 18Z                  
TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24                
HOURS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                          
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL                
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SANGER/MOLINA                                                                   
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
240 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC H5 COMPOSITE SHOWS A ZONAL FLOW              
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ALONG THE SRN TIER OF THE CONUS. THE NEXT               
WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION WILL BE THE DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH            
EMERGING OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK                   
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AREAS EAST OF THE MS                   
RIVER...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER KS. WINDS ARE VARIABLE LESS             
THAN 10 MPH...EXCEPT FOR ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE COAST. AMPLE                    
SUNSHINE AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL CLOSE OUT THE AFTERNOON.             
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE SLOWLY VEERING AROUND TO                    
ONSHORE...AND SHOULD PICK UP IN SPEED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE               
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...12Z NUMERICAL MODEL SUITE IS IN               
GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY             
AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE               
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP SWD AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM                 
TROUGH...RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROUGH.               
MEANWHILE...THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT            
MOVES ENEWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC/NERN STATES              
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. TIMING OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT                  
THROUGH THE SERN STATES ON TUESDAY HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DURING THE               
PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...WITH THE GFS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM.              
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER OUR FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL ZONES                    
MID-LATE MORNING...SWRN GA/WRN FL BIG BEND EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND            
S/CENTRAL GA/ERN FL BIG BEND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE                 
ENTIRE CWFA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK PER THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK. A            
STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT 65-70 DEG DEW POINT AIR INTO              
THE REGION...UNDER FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL                
RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG...WITH VALUES AS HIGH AS 2000              
J/KG (PER GFS) CONCENTRATED OVER OUR ERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.               
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR                           
PROFILES...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM                 
(I.E. SQUALL LINE) WITH ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS PRECEDING THE COLD            
FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW            
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF                  
BOWING SEGMENTS AND INVOF BOOKEND VORTICIES. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS             
THE CWFA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.               
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE BRISK                  
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE             
SYSTEM USHERS IN A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS. A COLD AIR                   
ADVECTION LIGHT FREEZE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE NWRN HALF OF             
THE CWFA...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S. FAVOR THE GFS               
MOS FOR POPS AND TEMPS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE             
SETTLES ON TOP OF THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IDEAL                     
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS IS A VERY COLD...DRY AIRMASS               
AND THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID            
20S MOST INLAND AREAS. WILL STAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR               
NOW. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS AS             
WINDS VEER TO BECOME ONSHORE. HOWEVER...A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE              
OVER A PORTION OF OUR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT                
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT                
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSSING OUR CWA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY             
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE             
WEEKEND RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT            
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A CLOSED                
UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND                    
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE            
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A POTENT SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD                 
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS MAY MEAN ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER            
THREAT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.                                                  
.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES            
WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL            
MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUESDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS               
AND SEAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THIS COLD                  
FRONT...WITH EVEN STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL                
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...             
WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                
WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AS INCREASINGLY MOIST RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP OFF              
THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD               
FRONT...FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR             
CONCERN AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE              
AND MODEL CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS INDICATE A GOOD                 
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY IN            
THE FORM OF LOW CIGS WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG AS WELL.                      
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 06Z...AND                 
SHOULD LAST THROUGH 12-14Z. ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE            
POSSIBLE AT KDHN AND KPFN AS EARLY AS 13-14Z...AND TAF SITES FURTHER            
EAST AT 15-16Z.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...BRIEF DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 35             
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN FL BIG BEND. NO              
CONCERNS ON TUE WITH MOISTURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RED FLAG              
CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET BOTH WED AND THU.                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...SEVERAL OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS REMAIN IN FLOOD AS            
A RESULT OF LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINS. BOTH VALDOSTA AND THOMASVILLE              
HAVE CRESTED...WHILE HAVANA IS BEGINNING TO CREST WITH MODERATE                 
FLOODING IMPACTING STATE ROAD 12. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO OCCURRING              
AT BLOUNTSTOWN AND MARIANNA. FOR MORE DETAILS...CONSULT LOCAL FLOOD             
WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR RIVER CREST FORECASTS AND                     
POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS. LATEST QPF FROM HPC PREDICTS BASIN                  
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED              
HIGHER AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD            
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE CURRENT FLOODING SITUATION...BUT WILL                
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR CHANGES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  54  72  35  55  26 /  20  60  10   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  61  69  39  56  32 /  30  60  10   0   0                           
DOTHAN       56  64  32  53  28 /  30  70  10   0   0                           
ALBANY       53  68  34  53  25 /  20  70  10   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     53  73  38  54  26 /  10  60  20   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   53  76  41  57  26 /  10  60  40   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                                  
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...                    
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...                   
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...                      
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...                 
     TURNER...WORTH.                                                            
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...                  
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...                        
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY               
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM              
     KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL                
     WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20                 
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT                
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT                  
     20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM                 
     20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20                
     TO 60 NM.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAMSKI/GOULD                                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
915 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC H5 COMPOSITE SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE            
TROUGH EXITING SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE NEXT               
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE             
TWO SYSTEMS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THIS               
MORNING. THE LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A SHALLOW INVERSION JUST               
ABOVE THE SURFACE...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONE NEAR 750 MB. AT THE             
SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED AREAS FROM THE MS             
RIVER EWD. EXPECT ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE DAY WITH AMPLE               
SUNSHINE AND WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...CURRENT OBS SHOW NLY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH LOW SEAS.              
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST                 
UPDATE...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS             
LIKE AN IDEAL DAY FOR BOATING BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EVENING AT TERMINALS.             
THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WITH               
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT KTLH AND KVLD. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO                 
GROUPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AT KDHN AND KABY AFTER 09Z TUE.                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...BRIEF DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 35             
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN FL BIG BEND. NO              
CONCERNS ON TUE WITH MOISTURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RED FLAG              
CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET BOTH WED AND THU.                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...SEVERAL OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE IN FLOOD AS A             
RESULT OF LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINS. BOTH VALDOSTA AND THOMASVILLE                
HAVE CRESTED...WHILE HAVANA IS BEGINNING TO CREST WITH MODERATE                 
FLOODING IMPACTING STATE ROAD 12. FOR DETAILS...CONSULT LOCAL FLOOD             
WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR RIVER CREST FORECASTS AND                     
POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  75  55  70  37  54 /  00  20  80  20  00                           
PANAMA CITY  71  61  69  39  53 /  05  30  70  10  00                           
DOTHAN       71  56  62  34  52 /  05  50  70  10  00                           
ALBANY       73  55  65  32  52 /  00  40  80  10  00                           
VALDOSTA     74  54  70  37  52 /  00  20  80  20  00                           
CROSS CITY   76  56  74  41  54 /  00  10  80  30  00                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAMSKI/DUVAL                                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
833 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS EXTENSIVE DRYING             
ALOFT BEHIND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.                   
COAST.  CANAVERAL WIND PROFILER SHOWING WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW                
LEVELS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL             
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS LOWER THETA E                   
VALUES PUSHING GRADUALLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN                
LITTLE CLOUD COVER.  THE CHANCES FOR FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BE LOWER                
THAN 24 HOURS AGO DUE TO THE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER               
WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 KNOTS...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN            
THE FORECAST.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD AS WEAK COLD              
FRONT GETS NUDGED SOUTH OF THE AREA.  LAMP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED                 
UPWARD ON VISIBILITIES...SO WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON IFR CONDITIONS.              
THE DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWEST TO REACH SOUTHERN SECTIONS...SO ANY               
FOG/CEILING PROBLEMS WOULD BE THERE. MONDAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT              
NORTHWEST WINDS AND A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHEAST             
TONIGHT AND VEER THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  SPEEDS SHOULD BE 15               
KNOTS OR LESS BUT THE FLOW MAY BE 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE                        
NORTH/OFFSHORE WATERS MON MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON.            
STILL THE SEA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OK CLOSE TO THE COAST DUE TO A               
WIND TRAJECTORY OFF THE LAND...BUT MAY BE 3-4 FEET BEYOND 20NM.                 
NOTE TO MARINERS: BUOY 41009 IS ADRIFT AND DATA IS NOT                          
REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS 20 MILES EAST OF PORT CANAVERAL.                   
THEREFORE THE DATA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM OUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO                 
BROADCAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY                                                   
LONG TERM....GLITTO                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
718 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE                                                    
710 PM CST                                                                      
RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS EVENING. UPPER              
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHWEST                  
MISSOURI THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND CONTINUES TO                
SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCED REFLECTIVITIES             
NOW SETTING UP FROM NEAR THE QUAD CITIES THROUGH THE WESTERN                    
SUBURBS OF CHICAGO INTO THE DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AREA WHERE REPORTS OF              
MODERATE SNOW ARE CURRENTLY BEING RECEIVED. REPORTS FROM FAR                    
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INDICATE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW HAS                  
FALLEN THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS INDICATED SOUTHWARD                 
EXPANSION OF REFLECTIVITIES INTO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR LIKELY              
IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SOUTH OF THE STRONGER              
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. SHORT TERM RUC/WRF PROGS TAKE THIS                     
STRONGER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY AROUND                    
03Z...AND EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. CONCERN IS THAT WITH                      
STRONGER MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SAGGING SOUTHWARD...AND                   
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHIFTING EASTWARD...COUNTIES ADJACENT TO                     
ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATELINE MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING                 
WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE                   
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 88 CORRIDOR...SPOTTER REPORTS HAVE BEEN              
RECEIVED OF SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN ASSOCIATION                   
WITH FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. WILL GRADUALLY SEE FAVORED AREA OF                  
HEAVY SNOW SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT               
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. IT DOES APPEAR                  
POSSIBLE THAT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING MAY END UP WITH BELOW               
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL...ALTHOUGH GIVEN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING                
NATURE AND LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES...ALONG WITH INCREASING               
NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING...WILL             
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO GOING WINTER STORM WARNING HEADLINE AT                  
THIS TIME.                                                                      
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
556 PM CDT...                                                                   
0000 UTC TAFS...FOCUS REMAINS WITH SFC LOW SLIPPING EAST ACROSS                 
THE MS VLY SOUTH ST LOUIS THIS EVENING AND ALONG THE OH RVR VLY                 
THRU TUESDAY. WRAPAROUND MSTR INUNDATING AREA WITH RAIN AND SLEET               
EARLIER TODAY SHUD BE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS COLD AIR IS PULLED               
DOWN INTO NRN IL/INDY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. IFR CIGS AND FRQ                
IFR VSBLY IN SNOW WILL DOMINATE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS                   
CONTINUING TO BACK TO NORTH AFTER MIDNGT AND SPEEDS PICKING UP TO               
25 KTS AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUING TO BUILDS GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BY               
MRNG. DEEPER WRAPAROUND MSTR PULLING OUT TO THE EAST AROUND                     
DAYBREAK AND SNOWFALL LESSENING TO FLURRIES BFR NOON. HOWEVER NORTH             
WINDS TO 35 KTS LIKELY ALL DAY TUESDAY WITH BLOWING SNOW MORE THAN              
SNOWFALL BEING A VSBY PROBLEM. CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE MRNG                 
AND EVEN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT VSBY BLO 3 MI EXPECTED UNTIL                
NOONTIME IN BLOWING SNOW AND FINALLY LIFTING TO VFR LATE IN THE                 
AFTN WHEN WINDS SUBSIDE TO 25 KTS TOWARD EVENING.                               
RLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
203 PM CST                                                                      
SOME DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ABOUT                   
EXPIRATION OF GALE WARNING A LITTLE EARLIER TUESDAY EVENING...BUT               
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SFC AND BLYR WINDS AND               
GUSTS DO DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING AS PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF RIGDE BUILDING IN THE PLAINS. IN THE                  
MEANTIME...WINDS HAVE STARTED TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS                     
AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUENCE OF SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM EASTERN                
KANSAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING               
AND THEN TO THE NORTH BY MORNING AS THEY INCREASE TO GALE                       
STRENGTH. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE                 
AREA AND BRING LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND REDUCED CLOUDINESS BEFORE              
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY.                                  
LENNING                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ILZ003>006-008-           
     010>014-019>023-032.                                                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ILZ033-039.                
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST /5 PM EST/ TUESDAY FOR                 
     INZ001-002-010-011-019.                                                    
LM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT           
     FOR LMZ740>745-777-779.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1200 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1045 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                              
UPDATED THE FORECAST DURING MID MORNING TO REMOVE THE FREEZING FOG              
ADVISORY OVER CHAMPAIGN AND VERMILION COUNTIES THAT EXPIRED AT 9                
AM. ALSO INCREASED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SOUTH OF I-72 THIS MORNING                
WITH LIKELY CHANCES FROM I-70 SOUTH WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW                 
POSSIBLE. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AGAIN AROUND NOON TO REMOVE                  
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF I-72 AS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE                 
DRY. WILL COOL HIGHS A BIT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE LOW               
CLOUDS LINGER.                                                                  
552 DM 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MOVING EAST. THIS SYSTEM            
PRODUCED SOME LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF I-72 AS FAR NORTH AS TAYLORVILLE              
AND PARIS THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW HAD DIMINISHED BY LATE MORNING BUT           
STILL GETTING REPORTS OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS 1 TO 3 MILES                
FROM CHARLESTON/MATTOON SE WITH LAWRENCEVILLE GETTING 1/2 MILE IN               
MODERATE SNOW AT 10 AM. HAD REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH              
OF I-70 THIS MORNING WITH FLORA GETTING 2 INCHES AT 830 AM. DENSE               
FREEZING FOG LIFTED AROUND 8 AM IN CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE BUT                   
STILL GETING A LIGHT FOG/HAZE WITH VSBYS 3 TO 5 MILES FROM I-72                 
SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH OF                  
I-72. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S EXCEPT LOWER 20S                
BY CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE WHERE THERE WAS DENSE FREEZING FOG                    
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS WERE LIGHT YET...EITHER CALM OR LIGHT               
EAST TO SOUTH.                                                                  
16Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN                 
OHIO AND RIDGING WEST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL/MO AND HELPING TO                
KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT. RUC13...WRF12 AND SHEF MODELS WEAKEN UPPER                
LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO SE OHIO BY                
SUNSET. SURAFCE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE STATES WHILE                  
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 1000 MB OVER WESTERN KS BY 12Z/MON. SSW                  
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IL ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH                  
PRESSURE. BUT ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS FROM I-72 SOUTH TO KEEP TEMPS                 
FROM WARMING UP AS MUCH. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS BROKEN TO OVERCAST                
LOW CLOUDS DRIFTING ENE INTO CENTRAL IL SO SKEPTICAL IF SKIES WILL              
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH OF I-72 THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE HIGHS               
IN THE UPPER 30S AND GALESBURG MAY BE THE MILD SPOT TODAY SEEING                
THE MOST SUNSHINE.                                                              
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1155 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                              
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OF 1.5 TO 3K FT FROM I-72 SOUTH MAY SCATTER OUT               
FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ALONG I-72. BUT INCREASING SSW FLOW                   
AROUND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SE                
STATES TONIGHT WILL LIFT LOW CLOUDS BACK NORTH EARLY THIS                       
EVENING...REACHING I-74 AROUND 03Z WITH CEILINGS LOWING TO 1 TO 2K              
FT OVERNIGHT. CMI AND DEC STILL SEEING SOME FOG WITH VSBYS 2 TO 4               
MILES AND THIS SHOULD LIFT BY 20Z. LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN TO              
CENTRAL IL TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND VSBYS COULD GET TO 1 TO               
3 MILES AT DEC...BMI AND CMI OVERNIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE                  
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN KS BY 12Z MON AND DEEPENS TO NEAR 997 MB                  
OVER CENTRAL KS BY 18Z/MON. THIS INCREASES SOUTH WINDS TO 10 TO 15              
KTS OVER CENTRAL IL. RAIN SHOULD STAY WEST OF CENTRAL IL TAF SITES              
THROUGH 18Z/MON AND ARRIVING FROM THE WEST DURING MON AFTERNOON.                
WRF MODELS LIFTS LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF I-74 BY 18Z/MON BUT THIS                   
MIGHT BE A BIT QUICK AND KEPT BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OF 1                
TO 2K FT IN AREA.                                                               
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 253 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                               
MAIN SHORT-TERM ISSUE WILL BE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN KILX             
CWA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SKIRTS BY JUST TO THE                 
SOUTH. IN THE LONGER-TERM...MAIN SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE                 
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.                                                            
08Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO                    
VALLEY...WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.                   
MEANWHILE...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING TOWARD THE MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF MISSOURI AND               
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. ALOFT...ACTIVE PATTERN NOTED ACROSS THE                      
CONUS...WITH POTENT SHORT-WAVE OVER MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA AND CLOSED LOW            
SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.                                  
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                              
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW LIFTING                
N/NE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD THE SE KILX CWA. NORTHERN                  
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND...AS IT                  
ENCOUNTERS A DRY ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH. BASED ON SURFACE                     
OBS...SNOW HAS NOW REACHED A SAINT LOUIS TO EVANSVILLE LINE AND                 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.                   
RUC/NAM-WRF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE QPF FIELD AT THIS               
POINT...AND BOTH MODELS BRING LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS AN                     
EFFINGHAM TO ROBINSON LINE THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CARRY 30                
POPS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH NOON...BEFORE THE SYSTEM               
QUICKLY DEPARTS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE AROUND CENTRAL                        
ILLINOIS...A PERSISTENT AREA OF DENSE FOG AROUND CHAMPAIGN/DANVILLE             
WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY               
SKIES. WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES            
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE                   
NUMBERS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...YIELDING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER             
30S ACROSS THE REGION.                                                          
AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE                 
INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY                
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 00Z 24 FEB MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT              
CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...EXCEPT FOR THE                
NAM-WRF...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH. FOLLOWING THE               
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK               
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS BY MONDAY EVENING...THEN                
INTO SOUTHERN OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR WILL BE               
PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIP WILL             
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE FOR             
RAIN/SNOW DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WITH RAIN                 
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK            
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA...WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH.            
DECENT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING            
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THIS...COUPLED WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE                 
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH                    
APPROACHING WAVE...MAY SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH              
OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SE CWA. MEANWHILE...FURTHER NORTH ACROSS            
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE                  
EVENING. AS COLDER AIR IS GRADUALLY DRAWN SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE            
OF THE SYSTEM...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO                  
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL                
ILLINOIS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A                 
QUINCY TO CHAMPAIGN LINE. BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS...A LIGHT                        
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST              
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD PICK UP BETWEEN ONE             
AND TWO INCHES...WITH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO                   
BLOOMINGTON LINE RECEIVING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. BLUSTERY AND                 
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS                     
STRUGGLING TO RISE MUCH ABOVE EARLY MORNING LOWS.                               
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
CHILLY WEATHER WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE REGION              
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. NEXT             
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL SLATED TO IMPACT ILLINOIS LATE THURSDAY INTO               
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE SIMILAR WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE...HOWEVER            
ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND KEEPS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LARGELY DRY.            
MEANWHILE...GFS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS            
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT MAKE             
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH A              
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.                                           
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1043 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
...WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS TO BE POTENT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...              
...INTERNET ISSUES HOPING TO BE RESOLVED SOON...                                
TWO MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WITH THE UPDATE...ONE THE MUCH FASTER                 
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. TWO...SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL               
CIRCULATION...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF                 
COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CREATE                       
CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSNOW.                                                
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS GREAT AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL RATES                  
HAVE REALLY STARTING TO SHOOT UP AS THE BETTER FORCING ENTERS THE               
REGION. ACARS SOUNDING FROM 0207Z FROM INDY SHOWS THAT THE WARM                 
LAYER WAS FAIRLY SHALLOW THERE...WOULD EXPECT WITH DYNAMICAL                    
COOLING THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE A REVERT BACK TO LIQUID PRECIP.                   
RATES NEARING MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS AS               
PER REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS.                                                      
LATEST RUC AND NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG FRONTO FORCING                    
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND               
INTO THE MORNING. BUFKIT SHOWING OMEGAS BULLSEYED IN THE SNOW                   
GROWTH REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. TIME HEIGHT SERIES               
SHOWS SOLID AMOUNTS OF NEG EPV ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE                       
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUES MORN...WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES THE                      
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSNOW IS AT LEAST IN THE CHC CATEGORY(30-50                 
PERCENT THAT IT WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA). EVEN IF THAT                
IS NOT THE CASE...ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN PLAY FOR                        
SIGNIFICANT BANDING TO CONTINUE. HAVE RAISED THE LOCALLY HIGHER                 
AMOUNTS IN WSW TO 10 TO 12 INCHES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL                  
NEED TO RAISE AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FOR TOTAL               
SNOWFALL...HAVE HELD WHAT WAS INHERITED BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT              
IS NOT ENOUGH GIVEN CURRRENT SNOWFALL RATES. THE OVERNIGHT CREW                 
MAY NEED TO BUMP THE ADVISORY COUNTIES INTO FULL BLOWN WINTER                   
WARNINGS...THOUGH A BRIEF LULL THERE MAY OCCUR AS THE WAA PRECIP                
TRANSITS EAST AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL                      
CIRCULATION/TROWAL WORKS EAST INTO THE REGION.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...                                                          
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO                  
TUESDAY. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AT THIS                
TIME...NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP WILL                  
BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH BRIEF                      
SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE...BUT ALL SNOW LIKELY BY 02-04Z.                   
VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE LOW WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/2SM AT                 
TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...AND CIGS AS               
LOW AS 200-400 FEET. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN AS WINDS START              
TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS WE APPROACH 10-12Z...AND WILL                     
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                                            
MODEL TRENDS FAVORING A FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK. SOME FAVORING OF                
NAM/SREF WITH RESPECT TO MORE PLAUSIBLE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ECMWF                
TAKING SFC LOW STRAIGHT THROUGH WV APPALACHIA NOT LIKELY GIVEN                  
CURRENT THERMAL GRADIENT PARALLEL TO TOPOGRAPHIC ISOPLETHS. LATEST              
GFS A RESPECTABLE MIDDLE OF ROAD TRACK. MOISTURE LADEN WAVE OVER                
NATION MIDSECTION TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND BE FURTHER ENERGIZED                
BY NRN STREAM WAVE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY QUICKLY DIVING                 
SSE THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AS MID/UL HGHTS CONTINUE TO STRONG BUILD                 
WITH 120-140M/12 HR 5H HEIGHT RISES OVER CA/OR TODAY/TONIGHT.                   
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FURTHER SOUTH TRACK APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS                    
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. BY 06-08 UTC TREMENDOUS LIFT/DYNAMIC              
COOLING ACROSS CWA SHOULD COOL COLUMN TO SHIFT PRECIP TO SNOW.                  
I290K ISENT UPGLIDE INTO SRN IN TREMENDOUS 06-09 UTC FOLLOWED BY                
NEAR 2 G/KG THROUGH STRONG SW-NE ORIENTED MID LEVEL INTO SRN/SERN               
CWA THROUGH DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD DELIVER SNOWFALL                  
RATES OF 1-2 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH SW 2/3RD OF CWA WITH FAR                     
SRN/SERN ZONES CLOSEST TO 7H LOW TRACK WITH HIEST AMOUNTS...SHOULD              
EARLY CHANGEOVER INDEED OCCUR PAN OUT. BLSN ALSO A FACTOR AS NRLY               
WINDS INCREASE...FAR NORTH CWA SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH                
THROUGH THE EVENT...ELSEWHERE LOW RATIOS 8-1 OR LESS INCREASING TO              
15-1 BY END OF EVENT TO GIVE VARYING DEGREE OF BLSN IMPACT.                     
UPGRADE OF WATCH TO SN/BLSN ADVISORY IN FAR NWRN ZONES WITH LESSER              
AMOUNTS/MORE ACCUSTOMED TO MAJOR SNOW EVENTS...WINTER STORM                     
WARNING REMAINDER OF CWA.                                                       
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD LIES WITH LES POTENTIAL TUE NITE THRU                  
THU MORNING. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM AND               
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. NAM              
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING IMPRESSIVE SINGLE BAND OVR                
WRN CWA SETTING UP BTW 00Z-06Z WED AND LASTING UNTIL NEARLY 18Z                 
BEFORE MOVING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REORGANIZING IN SRN LOWER MI                  
AFTER 00Z THU. AS USUAL, GREATEST CONCERN IN LAPORTE...ST JOSEPH,               
IN...AND BERRIEN COUNTIES BUT ALSO WORRIED ERN STARKE AND MARSHALL              
WILL GET INTO THE ACTION IF A DOMINANT SINGLE BAND DOES SET UP. NO              
SIG LIMITING FACTORS TO BE SEEN WITH DELTA T/S NEAR                             
20C...INVERSION HTS AOA 5KFT...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BELOW 40 KTS AT              
350 DEG FOR A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF TIME VEERING TO 290 BY END OF               
EVENT...GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE BLO INVERSION...AND THE                    
POSSIBILITY OF A LK SUPERIOR CONNECTION TO BOOT. BIG Q IS TOTAL                 
ACCUMS AND EXTENT SOUTH THE BAND COMES INLAND. FOR NOW...WILL                   
HOIST LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH 05Z-22Z WED IN LAPORTE...ST JOE,                   
IN...AND BERRIEN WITH 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE. TOYED WITH ALSO THROWING              
MARSHALL COUNTY IN AS THIS IS THE TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN THAT CAN                 
BURY THEM BUT CLIMO ODDS AGAINST 6+ INCHES. WITH WWD BIAS OF NAM                
IN DEVELOPING SINGLE BAND...WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CASS,              
MI...ELKHART...AND KOSCIUSKO AS WELL. LAKE EFFECT WILL FINALLY                  
CEASE ON THU AS H85 RIDGE BUILDS IN AND LL WINDS BEGIN TO BACK.                 
AFTER A QUICK BREAK THU AFTERNOON...A CLIPPER WILL MOVE SE INTO THE             
AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  MODELS INDICATING WAA TO RESULT IN MIXED              
PRECIP BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE KEPT JUST COOL ENOUGH BY                
SNOWPACK TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET.               
TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY ACCUMS BUT EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW                  
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUMPED LOWS UP A TAD FRI MORNING WITH WAA              
APPEARING TO HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO KEEP LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER EVEN                
WITH EXPECTED SNOWPACK.                                                         
AGAIN STAYED CONSERVATIVE W/WARMUP THIS WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS ONLY             
INTO THE 40S THOUGH H85 WAA WILL TAKE PLACE IN EARNEST. THIS TREND              
ALSO BEING NOTICED IN MODELS WITH MEX NUMBERS NOW ONLY IN THE 30S ON            
SUNDAY.  THOUGH ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATING BEST            
FORCING FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF TO THE WEST...ADDED POPS SUNDAY TO               
FILL HOLE IN GRIDS.                                                             
STG SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH                 
POSSIBLE IMPACTS RANGING FM HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO SIGNIFICANT              
SNOWS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ006>009-017-            
     018-025>027-032>034.                                                       
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY           
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ003-004.                                                  
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY           
     FOR INZ003-004.                                                            
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR                 
     INZ005-012>016-020-022>024.                                                
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY           
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077.                                                      
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR                  
     MIZ077>079.                                                                
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-            
     005-015-016-024-025.                                                       
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...SIMPSON                                                             
AVIATION/UPDATE...SCHOTT                                                        
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1240 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW STRATUS DECK MOVING NORTH AND ENGULFING TAF SITES. SATELLITE                
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST SO EXPECT LITTLE                  
IMPROVEMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST MVFR AND EVEN IFR VIS                   
POSSIBLE SO LEFT THAT IN FORECAST. POTENT WINTER STORM APPROACHES               
LATE TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE PCPN BEGIN LATE AFTERNOON            
WITH HEAVIER PCPN AND LOW VIS COMING TOWARD VERY END OF THIS TAF                
PERIOD AND MORE SO IN NEXT 6 HOURS BEYOND. HAVE TRENDED VIS AND CIG             
DOWN WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX AT ONSET. SHOULD SEE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW             
NEAR 03Z AT KSBN AND NEAR OR AFTER 06Z AT KFWA.                                 
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AND A TWEAK TO              
THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS PER REGIONAL COLLABORATION. IN THE SHORT              
TERM HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION                 
WITH STRATUS DECK CREEPING UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IN               
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. LIGHT SNOW PACK ACROSS AND JUST SOUTH OF              
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR               
A DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE TO PUSH MOIST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR                  
INTO THE REGION...FOR THIS REASON HAVE RAISED TEMPS A BIT AND                   
ADDED MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.                   
LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF THIS ACROSS THE                  
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM                   
COLDWATER TO FORT WAYNE TO LIMA.                                                
RECENT MODEL TRENDS FROM THE 00Z/24 RUN TO THE 00Z/25 RUNS SHOWS                
INCREASING THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM EVENT TO EXTEND ACROSS            
MUCH OF THE REGION...COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICE TONIGHT              
HAS LEAD TO THE ADDITION OF A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN THE                          
WATCH...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA                 
IN WESTERN INDIANA...ALONG WITH THIS ADDITION ADDED A TIER OF                   
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH IN EASTERN INDIANA...INCLUDING ALLEN COUNTY               
INDIANA AND THE CITY OF FORT WAYNE...WITH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR TO              
BE IMPACTED TUESDAY MORNING...AND AT THE LOW END...WINTER                       
ADVISORY CRITERIA MET...THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ADD AT THIS TIME                  
ALONG WITH THE OTHER COUNTIES. CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS                         
UNTOUCHED...WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE ANY CHANGE THERE...BUT                
ALL THE WATCH COUNTIES HAVE AT LEAST 4 INCHES FORECAST BY TUESDAY               
AFTN. STILL ANTICIPATING HEAVY BAND IN THE TROWAL THAT SHOULD BE                
PRESENT...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA               
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL              
FORCING FOUND THRU AT LEAST 15-18Z TUESDAY...WITH NEG EPV PRESENT               
IN TIME SERIES THRU 09-15Z ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL                   
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY....                                             
WEAK AND DAMPENING SHORTWAVE OVER ERN KY LAYING OUT SOME RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE ACRS SRN CWA AND LWR OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL SERVE AS                    
SOURCE FOR STRATUS AS BL BECOMES MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF               
925MB JET AXIS. FAR WRN/NWRN ZONES MAY ALSO REACH LFC WITH                      
SMALL/TRACE AMOUNTS OF FZDZ IN 25-30KT MIXED STRATUS DECK MONDAY                
AM. DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT WITH NON-DIURNAL                        
TREND/EARLY MIN PRIOR TO STRATUS FORMATION THEN SLOW RISE. MAX                  
TEMPS MON LOWERED SLIGHTLY ON EARLIER UPDATE ACCOUNTING FOR THICK               
ST COUNTERING WARM THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM.                
EXTREME SYSTEM TO COME TO FRUITION AS EPAC WAVE NOW ENTERING NRN                
CA PHASES BEAUTIFULLY WITH NRN STREAM SASK WAVE BEYOND F36. BY                  
MONDAY EVENING THOUGH AS WEST COAST/MOISTURE LADEN WAVE ENTERS                  
CENTRAL MSVLY...INITIAL WAVE OF I290K LIFT/3-4 G/KG MIDLVL                      
MOISTURE TO PROVIDE AN INITIAL PASSING SHOT OF LIGHT RAFL AHEAD OF              
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM...RAISED POPS LATE MONDAY AFTN GIVEN                    
MOISTURE/LIFT SIGNALS.                                                          
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                      
MAIN FOCUS ON POTENT UPR LOW MOVING INTO WRN US ATTM BREAKING DOWN              
WRN US RIDGING. EXPECT THIS S/W TO TRAVERSE ROCKIES AND PROMOTE                 
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVR NE CO LATER TODAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO              
CEN/SRN INDIANA BY 12Z TUE LEAVING CWA IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR                    
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. BUMPED POPS UP MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING TO                     
REFLECT FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT. GREAT COLLOCATION OF BEST                
OMEGA IN DGZ SHOULD PROMOTE PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW EARLY TUE                      
MORNING. THINKING NOW IS NORTH OF A KNOX/WARSAW/DEFIANCE LINE HAS               
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOWS AS TEMP PROFILES S OF THIS LINE                     
SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW EARLY FOLLOWED BY HIGH DENSITY SNOW THAT WILL BE              
TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE DUE TO COMPACTION, ETC. AS ALWAYS, EXACT TRACK              
OF LOW WILL HAVE GREAT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. HOISTED WINTER                
STORM WATCH FM 00Z TUE - 06Z WED. MODELS INDICATING MOST SYNOPTIC               
SNOW TO BE OVER BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN THE WRN CWA...BUT LAST FEW               
RUNS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER W/SYSTEM AND LE WORRIES JUSTIFY                  
LATER EXPIRATION TIME. COBB ALGORITHM PRINTS OUT OVER A FOOT AT                 
BOTH KSBN AND KFWA BUT IS COUNTERED BY AROUND 5 INCHES FROM COOK                
METHOD AND 6-8 GARCIA METHOD. OVERALL...4-8 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS                
LIKELY IN WATCH AREA WITH INDICATIONS OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS                 
BEING POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND POSSIBLY INCLUDED              
IN LATER UPGRADES.                                                              
COLD AIR WL FILTER IN BEHIND SYSTEM WITH AFOREMENTIONED LE                      
POSSIBILITIES AND AN APPARENT RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS/LOW 20S               
HIGHS. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 30S THU AHEAD OF NEXT NW FLOW              
WAVE. THIS CLIPPER WL MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER             
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW. SOME CONCERN ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD CREEP INTO               
THE SRN CWA TO ALLOW SN TO MIX W/RA BUT MODELS NOT LIKELY ACCOUNTING            
FOR EXPECTED SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACT ON SFC TEMPS SO WILL NOT                   
INTRODUCE MIX WORDING ATTM.                                                     
ANOTHER WAVE IN NW FLOW WILL SKIRT US FRI NITE...HOWEVER FORCING                
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO                   
ELECTED TO LEAVE FRI NITE DRY.                                                  
UPR LVL TROUGHING WILL DIG INTO THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY WITH RESULTANT            
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALLOWING SW FLOW TO PUMP INTO AREA SUN INTO MON.             
ELECTED TO STAY FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE W/TEMPS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED                
SNOW COVER AND DAY 7 TIMEFRAME. A QUICK PEEK PAST 7 DAYS HAS ECMWF              
AND GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATING YET ANOTHER POTENT SYSTEM TO BE                    
WATCHED FOR NEXT WEEK.                                                          
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008/                         
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...                                                          
MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE TREND                       
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN HALF                
OF THE AREA UNDER CIGS AROUND 2.5 K FT...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE AND TRAPPING INVERSION SOME STRATUS/FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP               
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS IN THE .6 TO 1K FT RANGE. THE LOW CIGS WILL                 
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIFT SLIGHTLY TOWARDS                   
AFTERNOON. VSBYS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE 4-6 SM RANGE. VERY LATE              
IN THE PERIOD (AFT 22Z) AS THE WINTER STORM APPROACHES A CHC FOR                
PRECIP WILL BEGIN...BIGGEST ISSUE HERE WILL BE HOW LONG IT TAKES                
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS BEFORE IT STARTS TO REACH THE                       
GROUND...WOULD BE MOSTLY SN NORTH WITH SNRA MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS                 
THE SOUTH.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY                
     NIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>024.                                  
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY                
     NIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.                                                      
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY                
     NIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005.                                              
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...SIMPSON                                                             
AVIATION/UPDATE...SCHOTT/LASHLEY                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1033 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AND A TWEAK TO              
THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS PER REGIONAL COLLABORATION. IN THE SHORT              
TERM HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION                 
WITH STRATUS DECK CREEPING UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IN               
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. LIGHT SNOW PACK ACROSS AND JUST SOUTH OF              
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR               
A DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE TO PUSH MOIST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR                  
INTO THE REGION...FOR THIS REASON HAVE RAISED TEMPS A BIT AND                   
ADDED MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.                   
LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF THIS ACROSS THE                  
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM                   
COLDWATER TO FORT WAYNE TO LIMA.                                                
RECENT MODEL TRENDS FROM THE 00Z/24 RUN TO THE 00Z/25 RUNS SHOWS                
INCREASING THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM EVENT TO EXTEND ACROSS            
MUCH OF THE REGION...COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICE TONIGHT              
HAS LEAD TO THE ADDITION OF A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN THE                          
WATCH...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA                 
IN WESTERN INDIANA...ALONG WITH THIS ADDITION ADDED A TIER OF                   
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH IN EASTERN INDIANA...INCLUDING ALLEN COUNTY               
INDIANA AND THE CITY OF FORT WAYNE...WITH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR TO              
BE IMPACTED TUESDAY MORNING...AND AT THE LOW END...WINTER                       
ADVISORY CRITERIA MET...THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ADD AT THIS TIME                  
ALONG WITH THE OTHER COUNTIES. CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS                         
UNTOUCHED...WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE ANY CHANGE THERE...BUT                
ALL THE WATCH COUNTIES HAVE AT LEAST 4 INCHES FORECAST BY TUESDAY               
AFTN. STILL ANTICIPATING HEAVY BAND IN THE TROWAL THAT SHOULD BE                
PRESENT...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA               
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL              
FORCING FOUND THRU AT LEAST 15-18Z TUESDAY...WITH NEG EPV PRESENT               
IN TIME SERIES THRU 09-15Z ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL                   
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY....                                             
WEAK AND DAMPENING SHORTWAVE OVER ERN KY LAYING OUT SOME RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE ACRS SRN CWA AND LWR OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL SERVE AS                    
SOURCE FOR STRATUS AS BL BECOMES MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF               
925MB JET AXIS. FAR WRN/NWRN ZONES MAY ALSO REACH LFC WITH                      
SMALL/TRACE AMOUNTS OF FZDZ IN 25-30KT MIXED STRATUS DECK MONDAY                
AM. DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT WITH NON-DIURNAL                        
TREND/EARLY MIN PRIOR TO STRATUS FORMATION THEN SLOW RISE. MAX                  
TEMPS MON LOWERED SLIGHTLY ON EARLIER UPDATE ACCOUNTING FOR THICK               
ST COUNTERING WARM THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM.                
EXTREME SYSTEM TO COME TO FRUITION AS EPAC WAVE NOW ENTERING NRN                
CA PHASES BEAUTIFULLY WITH NRN STREAM SASK WAVE BEYOND F36. BY                  
MONDAY EVENING THOUGH AS WEST COAST/MOISTURE LADEN WAVE ENTERS                  
CENTRAL MSVLY...INITIAL WAVE OF I290K LIFT/3-4 G/KG MIDLVL                      
MOISTURE TO PROVIDE AN INITIAL PASSING SHOT OF LIGHT RAFL AHEAD OF              
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM...RAISED POPS LATE MONDAY AFTN GIVEN                    
MOISTURE/LIFT SIGNALS.                                                          
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                      
MAIN FOCUS ON POTENT UPR LOW MOVING INTO WRN US ATTM BREAKING DOWN              
WRN US RIDGING. EXPECT THIS S/W TO TRAVERSE ROCKIES AND PROMOTE                 
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVR NE CO LATER TODAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO              
CEN/SRN INDIANA BY 12Z TUE LEAVING CWA IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR                    
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. BUMPED POPS UP MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING TO                     
REFLECT FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT. GREAT COLLOCATION OF BEST                
OMEGA IN DGZ SHOULD PROMOTE PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW EARLY TUE                      
MORNING. THINKING NOW IS NORTH OF A KNOX/WARSAW/DEFIANCE LINE HAS               
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOWS AS TEMP PROFILES S OF THIS LINE                     
SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW EARLY FOLLOWED BY HIGH DENSITY SNOW THAT WILL BE              
TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE DUE TO COMPACTION, ETC. AS ALWAYS, EXACT TRACK              
OF LOW WILL HAVE GREAT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. HOISTED WINTER                
STORM WATCH FM 00Z TUE - 06Z WED. MODELS INDICATING MOST SYNOPTIC               
SNOW TO BE OVER BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN THE WRN CWA...BUT LAST FEW               
RUNS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER W/SYSTEM AND LE WORRIES JUSTIFY                  
LATER EXPIRATION TIME. COBB ALGORITHM PRINTS OUT OVER A FOOT AT                 
BOTH KSBN AND KFWA BUT IS COUNTERED BY AROUND 5 INCHES FROM COOK                
METHOD AND 6-8 GARCIA METHOD. OVERALL...4-8 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS                
LIKELY IN WATCH AREA WITH INDICATIONS OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS                 
BEING POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND POSSIBLY INCLUDED              
IN LATER UPGRADES.                                                              
COLD AIR WL FILTER IN BEHIND SYSTEM WITH AFOREMENTIONED LE                      
POSSIBILITIES AND AN APPARENT RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS/LOW 20S               
HIGHS. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 30S THU AHEAD OF NEXT NW FLOW              
WAVE. THIS CLIPPER WL MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER             
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW. SOME CONCERN ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD CREEP INTO               
THE SRN CWA TO ALLOW SN TO MIX W/RA BUT MODELS NOT LIKELY ACCOUNTING            
FOR EXPECTED SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACT ON SFC TEMPS SO WILL NOT                   
INTRODUCE MIX WORDING ATTM.                                                     
ANOTHER WAVE IN NW FLOW WILL SKIRT US FRI NITE...HOWEVER FORCING                
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO                   
ELECTED TO LEAVE FRI NITE DRY.                                                  
UPR LVL TROUGHING WILL DIG INTO THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY WITH RESULTANT            
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALLOWING SW FLOW TO PUMP INTO AREA SUN INTO MON.             
ELECTED TO STAY FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE W/TEMPS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED                
SNOW COVER AND DAY 7 TIMEFRAME. A QUICK PEEK PAST 7 DAYS HAS ECMWF              
AND GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATING YET ANOTHER POTENT SYSTEM TO BE                    
WATCHED FOR NEXT WEEK.                                                          
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008/                         
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...                                                          
MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE TREND                       
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN HALF                
OF THE AREA UNDER CIGS AROUND 2.5 K FT...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE AND TRAPPING INVERSION SOME STRATUS/FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP               
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS IN THE .6 TO 1K FT RANGE. THE LOW CIGS WILL                 
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIFT SLIGHTLY TOWARDS                   
AFTERNOON. VSBYS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE 4-6 SM RANGE. VERY LATE              
IN THE PERIOD (AFT 22Z) AS THE WINTER STORM APPROACHES A CHC FOR                
PRECIP WILL BEGIN...BIGGEST ISSUE HERE WILL BE HOW LONG IT TAKES                
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS BEFORE IT STARTS TO REACH THE                       
GROUND...WOULD BE MOSTLY SN NORTH WITH SNRA MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS                 
THE SOUTH.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY                
     NIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>024.                                  
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY                
     NIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.                                                      
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY                
     NIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005.                                              
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...SIMPSON                                                             
AVIATION/UPDATE...SCHOTT                                                        
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1150 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AT BMG AS SNOW GRADUALLY             
ENDS. MVFR VIS/CIGS WILL THEN PREVAIL AS A SLOW CLEARING TREND TAKES            
PLACE THROUGH 06Z. CIGS MAY BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT LAF/HUF FOR A                
TIME TONIGHT AND THIS COULD LEAD TO IFR VIS CONDS GIVEN THE WET                 
GROUND AND CONDS PRESENT SUN MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SSW AT 5            
TO 10KTS WHICH COULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG. AT THIS TIME...SEE A               
SCENARIO THAT INCLUDES SOME CLEARING AND A RISK OF IFR VIS AFTER                
06Z. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285-295K (LOWEST 3KFT) MAY ALSO ACT            
TO SATURATE THE MIXING LAYER BELOW THE DEVELOPING INVERSION TONIGHT.            
THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK               
ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z MON.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIP TODAY AND THEN AGAIN MON-WED.           
AT 08Z A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WAS ACROSS MO AND MOVING E. AREA OF               
-SN WAS ACROSS MO INTO FAR SWRN IN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE                  
WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /FA/.                                              
MOST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT OPERATIONAL NAM STILL LOOKS               
TOO FAR N WITH SFC LOW MON NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/PARALLEL NAM               
ARE ALL FARTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CONSENSUS.                      
NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER              
WAVE ALREADY BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...STILL A                
GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIP OUT THERE. ALTHOUGH AIR IS DRIER ACROSS THE FA            
THAN ACROSS MO...STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT SOME PRECIP MIGHT MAKE IT                
INTO THE SWRN FA THIS MORNING. 06Z NAM/RUC BACKS THIS IDEA UP. THUS             
WILL ADD CHANCE POPS TO FAR SRN FA THRU 18Z...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS              
JUST TO THE N. BELIEVE WEAKENING SYSTEM COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR                 
SHOULD KEEP REMAINDER OF SRN HALF OF FA DRY.                                    
NRN FA STARTED OUT QUITE COLD THIS MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW              
COVER ALLOWED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOS DID NOT CATCH THIS WELL             
SO WILL CUT MOS HIGHS ACROSS AREAS WITH SNOW. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL             
KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREV EXPECTED...AND A BLEND OF                  
MET/MAV REFLECTS THIS WELL.                                                     
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED               
WELL TO OUR W. MET/MAV LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY              
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE FA ON MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE                 
ACROSS THE FA. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT             
00Z. POPS ARE ALREADY IN FORECAST AND DO NOT WANT TO FLIP-FLOP...SO             
KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR THE AFTN. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON             
MON NIGHT...DECENT FORCING WILL OCCUR /AS CAN BE SEEN IN QVECTOR                
PROGS/. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN            
BEHIND THE LOW OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE PTYPE TO SNOW IN            
THE WRN FA.                                                                     
ON TUE ALL MODELS SHOWING OR HINTING AT A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING              
UP ACROSS FA. CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WITH COLDER AIR             
MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE FA.            
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUE NIGHT/WED FROM W TO E              
AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CO                                                                   
PUBLIC...CS                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
625 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                             
MVFR SC DECK STARTING TO FROM AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE            
TAF PD BASED ON LOW LVL MOISTURE PROGS AND MODEL TIME SECS.                     
ALSO...AREA OF SN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS HUF AND BMG THIS MRNG                 
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND QPF PROGS. VBSYS ALSO MAINLY MVFR THROUGH             
THE MRNG THERE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIP TODAY AND THEN AGAIN MON-WED.           
AT 08Z A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WAS ACROSS MO AND MOVING E. AREA OF               
-SN WAS ACROSS MO INTO FAR SWRN IN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE                  
WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /FA/.                                              
MOST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT OPERATIONAL NAM STILL LOOKS               
TOO FAR N WITH SFC LOW MON NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/PARALLEL NAM               
ARE ALL FARTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CONSENSUS.                      
NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER              
WAVE ALREADY BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...STILL A                
GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIP OUT THERE. ALTHOUGH AIR IS DRIER ACROSS THE FA            
THAN ACROSS MO...STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT SOME PRECIP MIGHT MAKE IT                
INTO THE SWRN FA THIS MORNING. 06Z NAM/RUC BACKS THIS IDEA UP. THUS             
WILL ADD CHANCE POPS TO FAR SRN FA THRU 18Z...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS              
JUST TO THE N. BELIEVE WEAKENING SYSTEM COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR                 
SHOULD KEEP REMAINDER OF SRN HALF OF FA DRY.                                    
NRN FA STARTED OUT QUITE COLD THIS MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW              
COVER ALLOWED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOS DID NOT CATCH THIS WELL             
SO WILL CUT MOS HIGHS ACROSS AREAS WITH SNOW. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL             
KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREV EXPECTED...AND A BLEND OF                  
MET/MAV REFLECTS THIS WELL.                                                     
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED               
WELL TO OUR W. MET/MAV LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY              
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE FA ON MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE                 
ACROSS THE FA. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT             
00Z. POPS ARE ALREADY IN FORECAST AND DO NOT WANT TO FLIP-FLOP...SO             
KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR THE AFTN. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON             
MON NIGHT...DECENT FORCING WILL OCCUR /AS CAN BE SEEN IN QVECTOR                
PROGS/. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN            
BEHIND THE LOW OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE PTYPE TO SNOW IN            
THE WRN FA.                                                                     
ON TUE ALL MODELS SHOWING OR HINTING AT A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING              
UP ACROSS FA. CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WITH COLDER AIR             
MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE FA.            
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUE NIGHT/WED FROM W TO E              
AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...MK                                                                   
PUBLIC...CS                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
320 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIP TODAY AND THEN AGAIN MON-WED.           
AT 08Z A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WAS ACROSS MO AND MOVING E. AREA OF               
-SN WAS ACROSS MO INTO FAR SWRN IN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE                  
WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /FA/.                                              
MOST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT OPERATIONAL NAM STILL LOOKS               
TOO FAR N WITH SFC LOW MON NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/PARALLEL NAM               
ARE ALL FARTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CONSENSUS.                      
NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER              
WAVE ALREADY BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...STILL A                
GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIP OUT THERE. ALTHOUGH AIR IS DRIER ACROSS THE FA            
THAN ACROSS MO...STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT SOME PRECIP MIGHT MAKE IT                
INTO THE SWRN FA THIS MORNING. 06Z NAM/RUC BACKS THIS IDEA UP. THUS             
WILL ADD CHANCE POPS TO FAR SRN FA THRU 18Z...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS              
JUST TO THE N. BELIEVE WEAKENING SYSTEM COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR                 
SHOULD KEEP REMAINDER OF SRN HALF OF FA DRY.                                    
NRN FA STARTED OUT QUITE COLD THIS MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW              
COVER ALLOWED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOS DID NOT CATCH THIS WELL             
SO WILL CUT MOS HIGHS ACROSS AREAS WITH SNOW. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL             
KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREV EXPECTED...AND A BLEND OF                  
MET/MAV REFLECTS THIS WELL.                                                     
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED               
WELL TO OUR W. MET/MAV LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY              
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE FA ON MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE                 
ACROSS THE FA. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT             
00Z. POPS ARE ALREADY IN FORECAST AND DO NOT WANT TO FLIP-FLOP...SO             
KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR THE AFTN. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON             
MON NIGHT...DECENT FORCING WILL OCCUR /AS CAN BE SEEN IN QVECTOR                
PROGS/. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN            
BEHIND THE LOW OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE PTYPE TO SNOW IN            
THE WRN FA.                                                                     
ON TUE ALL MODELS SHOWING OR HINTING AT A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING              
UP ACROSS FA. CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WITH COLDER AIR             
MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE FA.            
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUE NIGHT/WED FROM W TO E              
AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST THROUGH                   
FORCAST PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS                    
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                                       
CIGS MOSTLY AOA 35 HUNDRED FEET FOR THE PERIOD. AREAS OF MVFR                   
CIGS SOUTH OF INDIANAPOLIS BECAUSE OF PROXIMITY OF LOW. MOST VSBYS              
VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TONIGHT INTO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.              
CLOUDS WILL REDUCE FOG DENSITY OVERNIGHT BUT ALSO DELAY ITS                     
DISSIPITATION SUNDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VRBL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CROSSES            
AREA. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH LESS THAN 10 KTS SUNDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JK                                                                   
PUBLIC...CS                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
925 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE TO FORECAST AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                  
SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AS              
SFC LOW SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO WESTERN                  
KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS. AREA OF CLEARING PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS ERN SD/WRN MN            
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT. ALSO               
SEEING TEMPS FALL FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN CLEARING AREA...SO HAVE               
LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CWA. ALSO WITH                 
SYSTEM SLIDING EASTWARD...AND PRECIP TAPERING OFF EXPECT MUCH OF THE            
PRECIP TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT                 
LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT NEAR OTTUMWA/BLOOMFIELD AREAS. HAVE                     
MINIMIZED AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO                        
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE SNOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.             
BLOWING SNOW THREAT SEEMS TO BE MINIMIZED DUE TO THE SNOW BEING                 
HEAVY AND WET.                                                                  
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER IS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.                 
CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM NEAR                        
ATLANTIC...THROUGH AMES...TO WATERLOO. OVERALL...NORTHWARD PUSH OF              
WARMER AIR HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND THIS HAS                 
RESULTED IN A LATER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MANY ROADS NORTH AND EAST              
OF THE DES MOINES AREA ON PARTLY TO MOSTLY SNOW COVERED...WITH                  
MAINLY WET ROADS SOUTH AND EAST OF DES MOINES. AS COLDER AIR FROM               
THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT...PRECIPITATION            
WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RUC FN VECTOR            
CONVERGENCE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER HAS BEEN MODELING THE BAND WELL              
TODAY...AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS               
EVENING. A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF DES MOINES HAVE RECEIVED             
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR...BUT THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING                      
RELATIVELY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW NEAR            
AND SE OF DES MOINES IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIMITED BY THE               
LATE TRANSITION...AND SHOULD BE DIMINISHED TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR                
FLURRIES BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL                
AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SO              
HAVE OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER            
ADVISORY. OTHER CHANGES WERE TO TRIM HEADLINES OVER NW/W                        
COUNTIES...AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE              
COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...RATHER THAN               
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS                 
EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS             
AROUND 35 MPH OR SO. THE WINDS SHOULD LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE HIGHER            
INTENSITY SNOW. ALSO...DUE TO THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW...AND                
VISIBILITY TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...DON/T BELIEVE BLOWING SNOW WILL              
BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF             
PATCHY BLSN...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT SHOULD BE SHALLOW DRIFTING OVER               
ROADS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER TUESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT            
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO WEDNESDAY.                                      
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE THE                
HIGHEST IMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF IOWA WITH LIGHT TO                    
POSSIBLY MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO             
ZONAL FLOW WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE              
OF PRECIP WILL COME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.                                         
.AVIATION...26/00Z                                                              
SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...EXPECT SNOW TO END            
WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR AT KDSM...AND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT            
KOTM. WHERE SNOW IF FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF                        
CWA...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW VSBYS/CIGS IN THE SNOW. MVFR            
CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE                           
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY KALO. KMCW/KFOD MAY SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS                  
TOWARD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS CLEARING AREA ACROSS ERN             
SD/WRN MN MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE CIGS TO              
RETURN TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA                    
BRINGING SCATTERED FLURRIES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR                          
APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-                            
MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-TAMA-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...KINNEY/MOYER                                                           
UPDATE/AVIATION...ALBRECHT                                                      
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
926 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A SNOW AND BLOWING                 
SNOW ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT               
FOR WHITESIDE...HENRY...BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. SNOWFALL                    
TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN UP TO 3 INCHES EXPECT FOR A FEW 4 INCH                  
REPORTS IN NW IL. RADAR TRENDS THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN               
THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY/S DIMINISHING AS WELL AS IR IMAGES SHOWING              
CLOUD TOPS WARMING OVER ERN IA AND NW IL ALL SUGGESTING THAT THE                
BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO                   
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM/RUC SHOWING THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL AS              
SYNOPTIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE              
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THE SNOWFALL EVENT IS WINDING                  
DOWN HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER STORM WARNING BACK TO AN ADVISORY                  
WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. THE WARNING WAS KEPT IN PLACE              
FOR A FEW COUNTIES EAST OF THE RIVER WHERE SOME 4 INCH AMOUNTS                  
HAVE BEEN REPORTED. ALSO A BAND OF STRONGER REFLECTIVITY/S                      
EXTENDING EAST FROM KMLI WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW FOR A WHILE THE                
REST OF THIS EVENING. THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF              
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.                                                           
NW WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN WRN IA SHOULD SPREAD E                
THROUGH THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND                  
DRIFTING TUESDAY MORNING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR                 
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-                 
     HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-                  
     LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.                          
IL...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR                 
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK                 
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN.                                                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-HENRY IL-          
     PUTNAM-WHITESIDE.                                                          
MO...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-          
     SCOTLAND.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLF                                                                             
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
315 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER IS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.                 
CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM NEAR                        
ATLANTIC...THROUGH AMES...TO WATERLOO. OVERALL...NORTHWARD PUSH OF              
WARMER AIR HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND THIS HAS                 
RESULTED IN A LATER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MANY ROADS NORTH AND EAST              
OF THE DES MOINES AREA ON PARTLY TO MOSTLY SNOW COVERED...WITH                  
MAINLY WET ROADS SOUTH AND EAST OF DES MOINES. AS COLDER AIR FROM               
THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT...PRECIPITATION            
WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RUC FN VECTOR            
CONVERGENCE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER HAS BEEN MODELING THE BAND WELL              
TODAY...AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS               
EVENING. A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF DES MOINES HAVE RECEIVED             
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR...BUT THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING                      
RELATIVELY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW NEAR            
AND SE OF DES MOINES IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIMITED BY THE               
LATE TRANSITION...AND SHOULD BE DIMINISHED TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR                
FLURRIES BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL                
AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SO              
HAVE OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER            
ADVISORY. OTHER CHANGES WERE TO TRIM HEADLINES OVER NW/W                        
COUNTIES...AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE              
COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...RATHER THAN               
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS                 
EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS             
AROUND 35 MPH OR SO. THE WINDS SHOULD LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE HIGHER            
INTENSITY SNOW. ALSO...DUE TO THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW...AND                
VISIBILITY TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...DON/T BELIEVE BLOWING SNOW WILL              
BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF             
PATCHY BLSN...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT SHOULD BE SHALLOW DRIFTING OVER               
ROADS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER TUESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT            
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO WEDNESDAY.                                      
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE THE                
HIGHEST IMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF IOWA WITH LIGHT TO                    
POSSIBLY MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO             
ZONAL FLOW WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE              
OF PRECIP WILL COME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.                                         
.AVIATION...25/18Z                                                              
LOW PRES TRACKING ESE FROM NE KS TO CENT MO THROUGH 00Z WITH                    
DEFORMATION AXIS OF PRECIP TO ROTATE THROUGH CENTRAL IA. GENERALLY              
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z...WITH LIFR AT TIMES DUE TO LOW             
CEILINGS AND OR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER TO                
SNOW IN NW IA...WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AT MCW AND ALO             
CONTINUING FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. TRANSITION TO SNOW GOES FROM             
NW TO SE THROUGH 00Z...WITH A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO                 
HEAVY SNOW TO FOLLOW THE TRANSITION. SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS                 
EVENING. MEANWHILE...NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30KT FOR THE            
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL VSBY REDUCING               
BLOWING SNOW DUE TO THE WETNESS OF THE SNOWFALL...BUT WILL MONITOR.             
CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISE AFT 06Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST             
PLACES AFT 12Z.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ADAIR-                   
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-                   
DECATUR-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-                  
LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-                    
STORY-TAMA-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...KINNEY                                                                 
AVIATION...MOYER                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1039 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAF...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD                 
WILL BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOLLOWED BY            
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS                 
INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA                   
AFTER ABOUT 15Z MONDAY FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. COULD EASILY SEE                 
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50KTS...AFTER 15Z.                  
STONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 00Z TUESDAY BEFORE                   
SUBSIDING QUICKLY. OPTED TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE KMCK TAF AS                 
CONFIDENCE IN CARRYING A PREVAILING PRECIP GROUP IS LOW AT THIS                 
TIME BUT FUTURE SHIFTS SHOULD MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2008/                         
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS (TONIGHT AND                    
MONDAY) FOR ALL PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND                     
ADVISORY.                                                                       
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE AND LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM BASED OFF THE NAM               
STRONGLY FAVOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS BOTH SUSTAINED AND IN GUSTS              
STARTING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z MONDAY. PER                      
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED                
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                                 
OTHER CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE FOR PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME ELEVATED                 
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. 18Z NAM AND 00Z               
SWODY1 WERE INDICATING AN AREA OF INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE                 
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING JET                     
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND RUC SHOW IT               
ACROSS THE NORTH AND BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FURTHER NORTH                
YET. THROUGH 06Z NOTHING EXPECTED BUT THROUGH 12Z MOISTURE WILL                 
INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES ARENT ALL THAT BAD AND MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME VERY                
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE LEFT IT IN BUT                  
CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO IT SO HAVE PULLED IT. BASED               
ON THE 00Z DATA THE THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO BE OUT OF OUR AREA.               
HAVE TWEAKED THE 3 HOURLY TEMP/DP GRIDS AS WELL AS ITS QUITE WARM               
FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT IN LATE FEBRUARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD BE                
WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                    
THAT SHOULD ABOUT DO IT FOR NOW. THANKS LBF/GID/DDC FOR                         
COORDINATION ON THE ADVISORY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/              
     MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/              
     MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.                                                     
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOLTZ/DDT                                                                       
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
945 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS (TONIGHT AND                    
MONDAY) FOR ALL PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND                     
ADVISORY.                                                                       
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE AND LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM BASED OFF THE NAM               
STRONGLY FAVOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS BOTH SUSTAINED AND IN GUSTS              
STARTING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z MONDAY. PER                      
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED                
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                                 
OTHER CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE FOR PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME ELEVATED                 
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. 18Z NAM AND 00Z               
SWODY1 WERE INDICATING AN AREA OF INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE                 
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING JET                     
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND RUC SHOW IT               
ACROSS THE NORTH AND BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FURTHER NORTH                
YET. THROUGH 06Z NOTHING EXPECTED BUT THROUGH 12Z MOISTURE WILL                 
INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES ARENT ALL THAT BAD AND MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME VERY                
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE LEFT IT IN BUT                  
CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO IT SO HAVE PULLED IT. BASED               
ON THE 00Z DATA THE THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO BE OUT OF OUR AREA.               
HAVE TWEAKED THE 3 HOURLY TEMP/DP GRIDS AS WELL AS ITS QUITE WARM               
FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT IN LATE FEBRUARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD BE                
WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                    
THAT SHOULD ABOUT DO IT FOR NOW. THANKS LBF/GID/DDC FOR                         
COORDINATION ON THE ADVISORY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/              
     MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/              
     MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.                                                     
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
447 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...UPDATE FOR THE 00Z TAFS. AVAIATION FORECAST CONCERNS                
FOCUS ON THE TIMING OF THE INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS AFTER THE COLD             
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. FAIRLY GOOD CONCENSUS             
THAT WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR KGLD FROM 15Z UNTIL               
23Z AND FOR KMCK FROM 18Z UNTIL 23Z. ALSO DURING THIS SAME                      
TIME...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK                 
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. PREVIOUS TO THIS...VFR CONDITIONS            
SHOULD PREVAIL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW FOR            
KGLD FROM 06Z UNTIL 12Z...AND FROM 06Z THROUGH 18Z FOR KMCK. I WILL             
LET NEXT SHIFT AND PRECIP DETAILS WHEN THAT TIME APPROACHES THE                 
FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2008/                         
.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS              
TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. NORTHWEST               
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST             
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP OVER NORTHWEST               
KANSAS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING.             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                     
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS/WX FOR TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND               
WIND ON MONDAY.                                                                 
A TROUGH COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE                
BEST MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO THE                
NAM. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 06Z SO PLAN TO MAKE POPS              
SILENT FOR THIS EVENING EXCEPT IN EASTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE PLAN              
ON KEEP CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH               
PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST              
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE MIXED WITH RA/SN. THE            
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE. THE CURRENT                  
FORECAST HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN                
COLORADO.  AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE NO FORCING ASSOCIATED               
WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING BUT IN NORTHWEST FLOW            
TIMING SHORTWAVES CAN BE TOUGH. THE BEST MOISTURE IS WEST OF THE                
FORECAST AREA SO IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT IS LIKELY TO BE                 
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP HIGH                 
SILENT POPS IN THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES.                                      
WIND IS THE NEXT ISSUE FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE                
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP GOOD MONDAY MORNING. THE RUC              
IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WIND AROUND 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS. THE NAM             
ALSO SUPPORTS THIS WITH BUFKIT SHOWING 40KTS ABLE TO BE MIXED DOWN.             
THE RUC ALSO INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.            
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FOR A WIND ADVISORY EVENT ON MONDAY AM              
HESITANT TO ISSUE FOR A 2ND PERIOD WHICH AGREES WITH COORDINATION               
FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES.                                                       
850 TEMPERATURES FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES               
MORE ON TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH              
COOLER ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEDNESDAYS             
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. MIN                 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE             
MID/UPPER 30S FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR THE REMAINING                 
NIGHTS.                                                                         
IN THE EXTENDED...(DAYS 4 AND 5)...THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER FLOW IS              
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN             
COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS                  
THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOME             
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ARE AVAILABLE WITH THE FRONT FOR SOME R-/S-.                  
BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE PROFILE SATURATES                  
BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06-12Z FRIDAY. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE            
POPS FOR THIS EVENT. SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE WAVE ON FRIDAY             
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT             
AND THEN COOL 6-8 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE              
IN THE LOWER/MID 50S ON THURSDAY COOLING TO THE UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.            
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN            
THE UPPER 20S.                                                                  
(DAYS 6 AND 7)...FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND BEGIN TO            
DIVERGE THIS PERIOD ON TIMING OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL             
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF...AND              
AS A RESULT MODELS MUCH DIFFERENT WITH TEMPS DUE TO LARGE                       
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SFC FEATURES. GFS ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD TEND             
TO SUPPORT SLOWER SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY 00Z CYCLE AND AT THIS POINT             
WILL GENERALLY TRY TO KEEP FORECAST IN MIDDLE OF ECMWF AND GFS                  
SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT WARMED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY AS ENS            
MEAN DATA HAS H85 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 10-15C RANGE. ECMWF IS                 
NOTABLY COOLER...BUT THIS APPEARS DUE TO IT BEING SLOWER MOVING OUT             
SFC RIDGE FROM THE AREA AND AT THIS TIME RANGE THINK STAYING CLOSER             
TO MEAN DATA WILL BE THE WAY TO GO. ALSO WILL ADD POPS FOR SHORT                
WAVE TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE AREA IN THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME            
FRAME. STILL TO MUCH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND TEMPS            
TO GO TO HIGH ON POPS OR BE VERY CONFIDENT PRECIP TYPE.                         
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BLM/FS/JRM                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
237 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS              
TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. NORTHWEST               
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST             
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP OVER NORTHWEST               
KANSAS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING.             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                     
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS/WX FOR TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND               
WIND ON MONDAY.                                                                 
A TROUGH COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE                
BEST MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO THE                
NAM. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 06Z SO PLAN TO MAKE POPS              
SILENT FOR THIS EVENING EXCEPT IN EASTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE PLAN              
ON KEEP CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH               
PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST              
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE MIXED WITH RA/SN. THE            
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE. THE CURRENT                  
FORECAST HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN                
COLORADO.  AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE NO FORCING ASSOCIATED               
WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING BUT IN NORTHWEST FLOW            
TIMING SHORTWAVES CAN BE TOUGH. THE BEST MOISTURE IS WEST OF THE                
FORECAST AREA SO IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT IS LIKELY TO BE                 
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP HIGH                 
SILENT POPS IN THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES.                                      
WIND IS THE NEXT ISSUE FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE                
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP GOOD MONDAY MORNING. THE RUC              
IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WIND AROUND 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS. THE NAM             
ALSO SUPPORTS THIS WITH BUFKIT SHOWING 40KTS ABLE TO BE MIXED DOWN.             
THE RUC ALSO INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.            
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FOR A WIND ADVISORY EVENT ON MONDAY AM              
HESITANT TO ISSUE FOR A 2ND PERIOD WHICH AGREES WITH COORDINATION               
FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES.                                                       
850 TEMPERATURES FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES               
MORE ON TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH              
COOLER ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEDNESDAYS             
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. MIN                 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE             
MID/UPPER 30S FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR THE REMAINING                 
NIGHTS.                                                                         
IN THE EXTENDED...(DAYS 4 AND 5)...THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER FLOW IS              
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN             
COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS                  
THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOME             
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ARE AVAILABLE WITH THE FRONT FOR SOME R-/S-.                  
BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE PROFILE SATURATES                  
BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06-12Z FRIDAY. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE            
POPS FOR THIS EVENT. SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE WAVE ON FRIDAY             
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT             
AND THEN COOL 6-8 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE              
IN THE LOWER/MID 50S ON THURSDAY COOLING TO THE UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.            
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN            
THE UPPER 20S.                                                                  
(DAYS 6 AND 7)...FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND BEGIN TO            
DIVERGE THIS PERIOD ON TIMING OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL             
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF...AND              
AS A RESULT MODELS MUCH DIFFERENT WITH TEMPS DUE TO LARGE                       
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SFC FEATURES. GFS ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD TEND             
TO SUPPORT SLOWER SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY 00Z CYCLE AND AT THIS POINT             
WILL GENERALLY TRY TO KEEP FORECAST IN MIDDLE OF ECMWF AND GFS                  
SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT WARMED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY AS ENS            
MEAN DATA HAS H85 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 10-15C RANGE. ECMWF IS                 
NOTABLY COOLER...BUT THIS APPEARS DUE TO IT BEING SLOWER MOVING OUT             
SFC RIDGE FROM THE AREA AND AT THIS TIME RANGE THINK STAYING CLOSER             
TO MEAN DATA WILL BE THE WAY TO GO. ALSO WILL ADD POPS FOR SHORT                
WAVE TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE AREA IN THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME            
FRAME. STILL TO MUCH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND TEMPS            
TO GO TO HIGH ON POPS OR BE VERY CONFIDENT PRECIP TYPE.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE 18Z             
TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH...AFTER 15Z...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KMCK A            
LITTLE MORE THAN KGLD WITH A LOWER LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVING OVER             
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME               
LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE                
MENTION OF THAT OUT OF THE TAFS. NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO INCLUDE                 
MENTION OF PRECIP AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES THE FIRST SIX HOURS             
OF THE TAF.                                                                     
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND                
SHEAR MAY BE A BRIEF CONCERN FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. BEHIND THE                 
FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO 20 TO 30            
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40 MPH.                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FS/JRM/BLM                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
242 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
WINDS TOMORROW AND CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE NORTH WILL BE THE              
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.                                                          
500MB HEIGHT RISES OF 120 TO 160 METERS WERE FOUND ACROSS ACROSS                
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND TX AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE                
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT OUR SNOW YESTERDAY WAS QUICKLY MOVING EAST,                 
AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ONTO THE COAST. WV LOOP HAS THE                   
SYSTEM HEADING INTO NV, WITH A 110 KT JET ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF               
IT. WARM 850MB TEMPS WERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN               
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE WARMED                    
NICELY INTO 50S AND 60S EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW COVERED AREAS IN THE                
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
THE SHORTWAVE OVER NV WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE PLAINS                      
TONIGHT, WITH THE SFC TROUGH DEEPENING IN RESPONSE. SAT LOOP SHOWS              
CIRRUS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, WHICH                     
MATCHES WELL WITH MODEL RH AT HIGH LEVELS. THINK THAT INCREASING                
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP US FROM                   
GETTING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT`S FOG. THE WINDS AND CIRRUS SHOULD               
ALSO KEEP READINGS FROM RADIATING OUT TOO MUCH, SO CONTINUED WITH               
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE                
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING               
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND A HAIR DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT, BUT SOME GOOD MID LEVEL RH IS              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP               
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, BUT NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE HYS               
AREA HAVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SATURATING DOWN. GFS AND UKMET ALSO                
SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR NORTH, AND THE 15Z SREF HAS SOME                 
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN. AM NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED, BUT CAN`T                
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND, SO PUT IN                
SOME VERY LOW POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                            
THE SFC LOW WILL BE EAST OF US BY AFTERNOON, WITH GOOD COLD AIR                 
ADVECTION AND A STRONG GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RUC              
AND NAM HAVE SPEEDS GETTING ABOVE 25 KTS, AND SREF HAS SOME LOW                 
PROBABILITIES OF THE SAME. ON THE OTHER HAND, 850MB WINDS ARE NOT               
AS HIGH AS THEY COULD BE, AND THE UKMET IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE               
SFC WINDS. AFTER CONSULTING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL HOLD                 
OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE THE WINDY WORDING.                  
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.                      
SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 50S AS THE                   
FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THERE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THE                      
NORTHEAST, PARTICULARLY WHERE THERE IS CLOUD COVER, WILL NOT GET                
OUT OF THE 40S WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY.                     
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH                
DIGS INTO THE MS VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT                 
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS, ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT STAYS              
FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE                  
THROUGH CO ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH, BUT THINK THAT ANY               
SNOW PRODUCTION WILL STAY TO OUR WEST.  NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD                  
CONTINUE, AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S. NORTH TO NORTHWEST                
FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE               
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COLD AIR GETS REINFORCED. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE,                
THINK THAT OUR NORTHEAST WILL HAVE TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF THE 30S,              
WITH WARMER TEMPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST.                                             
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CNTL PLAINS TUESDAY                 
WITH NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNING TO WRN KS BY MID WEEK. BASED ON RUN            
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND 85H TEMP PROGS SEE LITTLE REASON TO DISAGREE             
WITH THE WARMING TREND CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS WHICH                  
INCLUDES HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.                                          
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES REMAIN ARE PROGGED TO                 
CROSS THE CWA LATE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE               
AREA BY FRIDAY. ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT HOWEVER WILL BE                 
BRIEF AS A S/W RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED QUICKLY CROSSES THE ROCKIES              
INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT MORE SIG UPPER LVL TROF IS THEN           
PROGGED TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST LATE FRIDAY AND THEN DIG                    
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE ENSEMBLES               
AND MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TIMING AND TRACK THEY ALL ARE STILL IN                
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE              
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. AS A RESULT WILL BE FOLLOWING              
HPC GUIDANCE AND INTRODUCING SLT CHC POPS INTO DAY 7. CONFIDENCE                
HOWEVER REMAINS LOW ON WHERE OUT COLD FRONT WILL BE AND TIMING/TRACK            
OF THIS NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM SO WILL BE VERY GENERAL IN BOTH POPS AND            
TEMPS.                                                                          
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS SFC           
PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO OUR NEXT            
UPPER S/W TROF. WITH BETTER MIXING THINK FOG/ST POTENTIAL WILL BE               
LESS LIKELY TOMORROW THAN EARLIER TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND            
GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP WINDS             
AT LEAST IN THE WINDY CAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  37  53  25  43 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK  36  54  24  43 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  37  55  25  46 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  38  55  25  45 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  34  45  22  38 /   0  20  10   0                                           
P28  40  53  28  42 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN26/18/18                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
310 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST             
TONIGHT. A COLD FROM WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST                 
TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY. LOW                   
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO                
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE TUESDAY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG THE                   
DOWNEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER                      
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA                   
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND ANOTHER                  
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY       
NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A                   
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. EXPECT                
THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER              
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. ALL GUIDANCE FOR              
SKY AND POPS NEXT 24 HOURS LOOKS OVER DONE. LOOKS LIKE MIDDLE AND               
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FROM NEAR JAMES BAY                    
ARRIVING IN NORTH THIS EVENING. WILL PLAY DOWN LOW MODEL POPS                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL LATER MONDAY THEN INTRODUCE LOW               
NUMBERS IN NORTHWEST. WILL USE GMOS FOR WINDS...TEMPERATURE AND                 
DEW POINT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                           
MAIN FOCUS THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE ON THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS                 
XPCTD TO AFFECT OUR FA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED... LOOKING MORE                
AND MORE LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE NXT MAJOR WNTR STORM TO                   
AFFECT OUR REGION AFTER A SHORT BREAK... IN THE MEANTIME...XPCT A               
COLD FRONT TO SAG SEWRD INTO NRN AREAS MON NGT THEN SAG SLOWLY                  
SWRD INTO CENTRAL AREAS BY ERLY TUE. THIS FRONT LIKELY TO SPARK                 
AND INCRS IN SW- ACTIVITY N AND W MON NGT REACHING CENTRAL AREAS                
ON TUE. STEADIER PRECIP ASSOCIATED W/ THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM                  
SYSTEM THEN XPCTD TO SPREAD NEWRD ALONG THIS FRONT AND INTO THE FA              
FROM SW TO NE LATER TUE.                                                        
THEREAFTER...CONCERNING THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...12Z MODEL                   
SUITE INCLUDING THE CANADIAN/ECMWF/SREF/NAM AND GFS ALL TAKE THE                
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MON AND                   
TRACK IT ENE TO A POSN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST BY WED AM. UKMET                
IS THE OUTLIER TAKING THIS SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER S AND HAS BEEN                   
THROWN OUT... NAM IS CHARACTERISTICALLY A LITTLE SLOWER BUT                     
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK AND SCENARIO AS THE REST OF THE MODELS...               
MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS .75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID TO THE FA FROM              
LATE TUESDAY THRU WED W/ CRITICAL THCKNS VALS SUPPORTING ALL SNOW               
FOR CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS W/ A MIX DOWNEAST. UPSTREAM OFFICES ARE               
HOLDING OFF ON WATCHES ATTM AND WILL DO THE SAME HERE AS IT WOULD               
BE A 5TH PERIOD WATCH FOR US BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD               
RECOMMEND OUR OFFICE GO W/ WATCHES FOR CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS ON                 
THE MDNGT SHIFT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FIND THE GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD                
AGREEMENT ON CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA                
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING                
IN BEHIND. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME TROUGHING               
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. FRIDAY EVENING THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT. THE               
GFS INDICATES THAT THE HIGH WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA...THE                 
ECMWF HAS THE HIGH EAST OF THE AREA WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                  
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SATURDAY MORNING THE MODELS ARE IN               
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFER ON POSITION AND TIMING OF THE               
LOW. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE CANADIAN                 
MARITIMES BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SLOW THE SYSTEM...MOVES IT                
OFF THE DOWNEAST COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN INTO EASTERN NEW                 
BRUNSWICK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GMOS SUPPORTS A BLENDED APPROACH               
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE                
INTO NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...HOWEVER                      
CEILING EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.                                                 
VFR XPCTD SRN SITES W/ VFR/MVFR IN SW- N MON NGT INTO TUE. XPCT                 
DETERIORATING CONDS ALL TAF SITES BY LATE TUE W/ THE APPROACH OF                
THE NXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION                  
ABOVE... PREDOM IFR/LIFR CONDS XPCTD LATE TUE THRU WED W/ SLOW                  
IMPROVEMENT WED NGT INTO THU. VFR CONDS AGAIN XPCTD BY FRI AT ALL               
TAF SITES AS COLD DRY HGH PRES SETTLES OVR THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY UPDATING USING COMPROMISE BETWEEN RUC13 AND                
CARWRF. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE LIGHTER RUC13 SPEEDS APPEAR MORE               
REASONABLE SO HAVE UPDATE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON USING RUC13.               
BEYOND RUC13 RANGE HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND THE                 
GFS40 OUT TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: NO OBSERVATIONS                  
AVAILABLE FROM 44027 BUT BASED ON OBS FROM 44034 WAVE MODEL                     
NUMBERS STILL RUNNING 1 FOOT TOO LOW. SPECTRAL DATA AT CAR01                    
SUGGESTS PRIMARY WAVE GROUPS ARE SOUTHERLY SWELL AND SOUTHWEST                  
WIND WAVE. APPEARS SWELL FIELD FROM MODEL TOO LOW BUT OFFSET BY                 
WIND WAVE GROUP THAT IS CURRENTLY TOO HIGH. CURRENT OBS 4 TO 5                  
FEET PRIMARILY FROM SWELL FIELD...HOWEVER EXPECT INCREASE BACK TO               
5 TO 6 FEET LATER THIS EVENING AS WIND FIELD INCREASES. SO WILL                 
KEEP SCA.                                                                       
SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS XPCT TO REMAIN BLO SCA UNTIL TUE NGT WHEN                 
AT LEAST CONDS XPCTD TO DEVELOP W/ TH APPROACH OF THE STORM SYSTEM              
FROM THE SW...                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY          
     FOR ANZ050-051.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE                                                             
SHORT TERM...KHW                                                                
LONG TERM...NORTON                                                              
AVIATION...MIGNONE                                                              
MARINE...MIGNONE/KHW                                                            
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
840 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO GO WITH PCLDY SKIES IN THE EVNG ACRS THE KEWEENAW AS DRY             
AIR OVER MN/SRN ONTARIO AS SHOWN ON 00Z INL RAOB/RECENT TAMDAR SDNG             
FM YQT HAS INVADED NRN LK SUP AND CAUSED SC TO BREAK UP THERE WITH              
UNFVRBL NLY FLOW AND ACYC FLOW AT H85. OTRW...CONTINUED INFLUX OF               
COLDER AIR ACRS LK SUP (00Z H85 TEMP -4C AT GRB...-13C AT INL...THEN            
-19C AT YPL) WL CAUSE LES TO DVLP OVERNGT. BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AS            
WELL AS ICE COVER OVER WRN LK SUP AND BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND MQT WL              
TEND TO LIMIT AMTS. MORE MSTR NOTED NW OF INL/YPL. ARRIVAL OF THIS              
MSTR ON TUE MRNG IN CONCERT WITH DPVA/HGT FALLS ACCOMPANYING DIGGING            
SHRTWV NR LK WINNIPEG MAY RESULT IN A BIT MORE LES TMRW.                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AS NOTED ON WATER                 
VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. MEAN RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH             
A BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN 2/3RD OF CANADA AND UPR GREAT LAKES AND NE            
U.S. SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS                     
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUE AND WILL              
NOT A SYNOPTIC IMPACT OUR UPR MI WX EXCEPT TO TIGHTEN NRLY GRADIENT             
OVER THE REGION ON BACK SIDE OF LOW. COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATE                  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MANITOBA WILL            
HELP GENERATE LES FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NRLY                 
FLOW.                                                                           
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR LES BANDS TO             
DEVELOP AS COLDEST AIR DOESN`T MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE                  
TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SRN MANITOBA.                    
INITIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING 850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO              
BE -10C TO -11C WHICH MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LES. GIVEN             
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS FOR EVEN ICE IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE DECIDED TO              
THROW IN SOME PATCHY FZDZ FOR WEST AND NCNTRL COUNTIES IN NRLY                  
UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH APPROACH OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT...MODELS             
THEN SHOW 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -16 TO -18 LATE TONIGHT WHICH                
SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME LES.                                                  
SO GIVEN THE SLOWER ADVANCE OF COLD AIR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY            
TRIMMED BACK ACCUMS TONIGHT TO INCH OR LESS OVER THE FAVORED NRLY               
UPSLOPE AREAS IN WEST AND NCNTRL ZONES...BUT KEPT IN LIKELY POPS FOR            
THE OVERNIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES.                                                
BY TUE...THE COLDEST AIR IS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES WITH 850 MB                
TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -19C. HOWEVER...SFC-850 MB FLOW IS ALSO                
BECOMING SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC BY THIS TIME WITH DRY AIR AT                      
LOW-LEVELS ADVECTING IN FROM ONTARIO. THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH                 
INCREASED SUN ANGLE/DIURNAL HEATING THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAY DISRUPT             
LES BANDS A BIT DURING THE DAY. FOR THESE REASONS ALSO TRIMMED BACK             
ACCUMS TO AROUND AN INCH FOR WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES IN UPSLOPE NRLY             
FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (AROUND 2 INCHES)              
BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING WHERE MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
THURSDAY.                                                                       
SEVERAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A DOMINANT BAND                   
FORMING NEAR MUNISING TUESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY             
MORNING. REGIONAL GEM...NAM...AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF-ARW ALL SHOW THIS            
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH IT ISN`T PRESENT IN THE GFS. WILL GO AHEAD AND               
INCREASE QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS GENERAL AREA...AND IF THIS FEATURE            
CONTINUES TO APPEAR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...A HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED             
FOR ALGER COUNTY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR                          
SHORELINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT LES CONTINUING FROM            
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL                  
REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT...ALTHOUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE INVERSION LIES                
WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO            
AN END DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO               
THE REGION AND WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL              
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN                  
SHORELINE WITH S-SW WINDS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS              
MATCHING AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
CONFIDENCE THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD DECREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS                 
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A              
LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE             
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR               
SATURDAY. ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE             
PERIOD...AND IS THEN BLENDED WITH 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z                
CANADIAN GLOBAL SOLUTIONS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN               
PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. RELIED HEAVILY ON               
HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WHEN MODELS WERE DIVERGENT. MAIN                  
CHANGE THAT USING HPC GUIDANCE CAUSED WAS AN ADDITION OF CHANCE POPS            
TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE LOW ENTERING THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR IN NRN MN/SRN ONTARIO AS SHOWN ON RECENT TAMDAR             
SDNGS FM INL/YQT NOW BREAKING UP THE CLD OVER NRN LK SUP WL RESULT              
IN PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT CMX THRU THIS EVNG WITH UNFVRBL N              
FLOW. THE VSBY WL ALSO IMPROVE AT SAW...BUT EXPECT SC MVFR CIGS TO              
LINGER FOR THE MOST PART WITH LONGER FETCH AND FVRBL UPSLOPE NLY                
FLOW. WITH WEAKENING DRY ADVECTION LATER TNGT...SUSPECT MVFR CIG WL             
DVLP AT CMX WHILE STEADIER SHSN THAT RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR RANGE                
COMMENCE AT SAW. BEST CHC FOR MORE FREQUENT SHSN AND LOWER VSBY...              
MVFR AT CMX/IFR AT SAW...WL BE TUE MRNG INTO THE AFTN WHEN DIGGING              
SHRTWV DRAGS COLDER LLVL AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND INVRN BASE LIFTS              
TO 5-6K FT. ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS             
AT TIMES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN INCREASING               
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY              
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO 30 KT FROM            
TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO                   
EXPECTED TUE INTO WED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. AS THE LOW MOVES E ON             
WED THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS WINDS QUICKLY DIE DOWN               
BLO 20 KT BY LATE WED. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT BY               
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NRN             
PLAINS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
NONE.                                                                           
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
NONE.                                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST                    
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SHORT TERM...VOSS                                                               
LONG TERM...TAG                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
625 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AS NOTED ON WATER                 
VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. MEAN RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH             
A BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN 2/3RD OF CANADA AND UPR GREAT LAKES AND NE            
U.S. SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS                     
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUE AND WILL              
NOT A SYNOPTIC IMPACT OUR UPR MI WX EXCEPT TO TIGHTEN NRLY GRADIENT             
OVER THE REGION ON BACK SIDE OF LOW. COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATE                  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MANITOBA WILL            
HELP GENERATE LES FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NRLY                 
FLOW.                                                                           
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR LES BANDS TO             
DEVELOP AS COLDEST AIR DOESN`T MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE                  
TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SRN MANITOBA.                    
INITIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING 850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO              
BE -10C TO -11C WHICH MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LES. GIVEN             
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS FOR EVEN ICE IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE DECIDED TO              
THROW IN SOME PATCHY FZDZ FOR WEST AND NCNTRL COUNTIES IN NRLY                  
UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH APPROACH OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT...MODELS             
THEN SHOW 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -16 TO -18 LATE TONIGHT WHICH                
SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME LES.                                                  
SO GIVEN THE SLOWER ADVANCE OF COLD AIR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY            
TRIMMED BACK ACCUMS TONIGHT TO INCH OR LESS OVER THE FAVORED NRLY               
UPSLOPE AREAS IN WEST AND NCNTRL ZONES...BUT KEPT IN LIKELY POPS FOR            
THE OVERNIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES.                                                
BY TUE...THE COLDEST AIR IS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES WITH 850 MB                
TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -19C. HOWEVER...SFC-850 MB FLOW IS ALSO                
BECOMING SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC BY THIS TIME WITH DRY AIR AT                      
LOW-LEVELS ADVECTING IN FROM ONTARIO. THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH                 
INCREASED SUN ANGLE/DIURNAL HEATING THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAY DISRUPT             
LES BANDS A BIT DURING THE DAY. FOR THESE REASONS ALSO TRIMMED BACK             
ACCUMS TO AROUND AN INCH FOR WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES IN UPSLOPE NRLY             
FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (AROUND 2 INCHES)              
BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING WHERE MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
THURSDAY.                                                                       
SEVERAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A DOMINANT BAND                   
FORMING NEAR MUNISING TUESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY             
MORNING. REGIONAL GEM...NAM...AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF-ARW ALL SHOW THIS            
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH IT ISN`T PRESENT IN THE GFS. WILL GO AHEAD AND               
INCREASE QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS GENERAL AREA...AND IF THIS FEATURE            
CONTINUES TO APPEAR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...A HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED             
FOR ALGER COUNTY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR                          
SHORELINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT LES CONTINUING FROM            
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL                  
REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT...ALTHOUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE INVERSION LIES                
WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO            
AN END DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO               
THE REGION AND WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL              
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN                  
SHORELINE WITH S-SW WINDS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS              
MATCHING AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
CONFIDENCE THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD DECREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS                 
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A              
LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE             
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR               
SATURDAY. ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE             
PERIOD...AND IS THEN BLENDED WITH 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z                
CANADIAN GLOBAL SOLUTIONS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN               
PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. RELIED HEAVILY ON               
HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WHEN MODELS WERE DIVERGENT. MAIN                  
CHANGE THAT USING HPC GUIDANCE CAUSED WAS AN ADDITION OF CHANCE POPS            
TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE LOW ENTERING THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR IN NRN MN/SRN ONTARIO AS SHOWN ON RECENT TAMDAR             
SDNGS FM INL/YQT NOW BREAKING UP THE CLD OVER NRN LK SUP WL RESULT              
IN PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT CMX THRU THIS EVNG WITH UNFVRBL N              
FLOW. THE VSBY WL ALSO IMPROVE AT SAW...BUT EXPECT SC MVFR CIGS TO              
LINGER FOR THE MOST PART WITH LONGER FETCH AND FVRBL UPSLOPE NLY                
FLOW. WITH WEAKENING DRY ADVECTION LATER TNGT...SUSPECT MVFR CIG WL             
DVLP AT CMX WHILE STEADIER SHSN THAT RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR RANGE                
COMMENCE AT SAW. BEST CHC FOR MORE FREQUENT SHSN AND LOWER VSBY...              
MVFR AT CMX/IFR AT SAW...WL BE TUE MRNG INTO THE AFTN WHEN DIGGING              
SHRTWV DRAGS COLDER LLVL AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND INVRN BASE LIFTS              
TO 5-6K FT. ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS             
AT TIMES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN INCREASING               
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY              
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO 30 KT FROM            
TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO                   
EXPECTED TUE INTO WED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. AS THE LOW MOVES E ON             
WED THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS WINDS QUICKLY DIE DOWN               
BLO 20 KT BY LATE WED. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT BY               
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NRN             
PLAINS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...VOSS                                                               
LONG TERM...TAG                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AS NOTED ON WATER                 
VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. MEAN RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH             
A BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN 2/3RD OF CANADA AND UPR GREAT LAKES AND NE            
U.S. SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS                     
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUE AND WILL              
NOT A SYNOPTIC IMPACT OUR UPR MI WX EXCEPT TO TIGHTEN NRLY GRADIENT             
OVER THE REGION ON BACK SIDE OF LOW. COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATE                  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MANITOBA WILL            
HELP GENERATE LES FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NRLY                 
FLOW.                                                                           
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR LES BANDS TO             
DEVELOP AS COLDEST AIR DOESN`T MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE                  
TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SRN MANITOBA.                    
INITIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING 850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO              
BE -10C TO -11C WHICH MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LES. GIVEN             
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS FOR EVEN ICE IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE DECIDED TO              
THROW IN SOME PATCHY FZDZ FOR WEST AND NCNTRL COUNTIES IN NRLY                  
UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH APPROACH OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT...MODELS             
THEN SHOW 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -16 TO -18 LATE TONIGHT WHICH                
SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME LES.                                                  
SO GIVEN THE SLOWER ADVANCE OF COLD AIR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY            
TRIMMED BACK ACCUMS TONIGHT TO INCH OR LESS OVER THE FAVORED NRLY               
UPSLOPE AREAS IN WEST AND NCNTRL ZONES...BUT KEPT IN LIKELY POPS FOR            
THE OVERNIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES.                                                
BY TUE...THE COLDEST AIR IS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES WITH 850 MB                
TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -19C. HOWEVER...SFC-850 MB FLOW IS ALSO                
BECOMING SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC BY THIS TIME WITH DRY AIR AT                      
LOW-LEVELS ADVECTING IN FROM ONTARIO. THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH                 
INCREASED SUN ANGLE/DIURNAL HEATING THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAY DISRUPT             
LES BANDS A BIT DURING THE DAY. FOR THESE REASONS ALSO TRIMMED BACK             
ACCUMS TO AROUND AN INCH FOR WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES IN UPSLOPE NRLY             
FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (AROUND 2 INCHES)              
BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING WHERE MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
THURSDAY.                                                                       
SEVERAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A DOMINANT BAND                   
FORMING NEAR MUNISING TUESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY             
MORNING. REGIONAL GEM...NAM...AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF-ARW ALL SHOW THIS            
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH IT ISN`T PRESENT IN THE GFS. WILL GO AHEAD AND               
INCREASE QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS GENERAL AREA...AND IF THIS FEATURE            
CONTINUES TO APPEAR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...A HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED             
FOR ALGER COUNTY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR                          
SHORELINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT LES CONTINUING FROM            
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL                  
REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT...ALTHOUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE INVERSION LIES                
WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO            
AN END DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO               
THE REGION AND WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL              
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN                  
SHORELINE WITH S-SW WINDS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS              
MATCHING AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
CONFIDENCE THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD DECREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS                 
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A              
LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE             
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR               
SATURDAY. ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE             
PERIOD...AND IS THEN BLENDED WITH 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z                
CANADIAN GLOBAL SOLUTIONS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN               
PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. RELIED HEAVILY ON               
HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WHEN MODELS WERE DIVERGENT. MAIN                  
CHANGE THAT USING HPC GUIDANCE CAUSED WAS AN ADDITION OF CHANCE POPS            
TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE LOW ENTERING THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA...AND WINDS HAVE TURNED                           
NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER THE              
CIGS REMAIN AT OR NEAR IFR. AT SAW...THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW              
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT                   
NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR. COULD SEE               
SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS                
SOME BR MIXED IN WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE             
THRU TUESDAY. AS FOR CMX...THE IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN            
THE NE FLOW SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS            
SHIFT NORTH. WITH THE WINDS STAYING N-NW TONIGHT INTO                           
TUE...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR IFR VSBYS OR CIGS AT CMX.            
AS THE OH VLY LOW DEEPENS TONIGHT INTO TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY            
AT BOTH SITES ON TUESDAY MORNING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN INCREASING               
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY              
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO 30 KT FROM            
TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO                   
EXPECTED TUE INTO WED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. AS THE LOW MOVES E ON             
WED THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS WINDS QUICKLY DIE DOWN               
BLO 20 KT BY LATE WED. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT BY               
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NRN             
PLAINS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...VOSS                                                               
LONG TERM...TAG                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS            
SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT IS THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN AND                  
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS QUITE                
WEAK INITIALLY...SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT SUFFER TOO MUCH DESPITE THE                
AREA BEING POST FRONTAL. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP                  
WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC CLOUDS OUT OF THE PICTURE...HOWEVER INCREASING              
UPSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS                      
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE DAY GOES ON. IN ADDITION...THE             
NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL AFFECT INLAND AREAS THIS                
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY               
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY THIS                   
MORNING.                                                                        
THE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS ARE PLAYING HAVOC ON TEMPS WITH SOME AREAS             
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WITH OTHERS STILL IN THE TEENS.              
THE LEAST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME ARE IN INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THESE SITES WOULD SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO            
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY. IN FACT...MNN IS ALREADY IN THE LOWER              
30S. WILL NOT TWEAK TEMPS MUCH TODAY WITH SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN               
LIKELY IN THE MID 30S WITH OTHER AREAS AROUND 30S OR THE LOWER 30S.             
WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                 
ACROSS THE WEST...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR                 
MOVES INTO THE REGION.                                                          
GRIDDED AND ZFP UPDATE OUT BY 11 AM.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN              
CANADA AND A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE            
STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN                  
WISCONSIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE HIGH BLANKETING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN               
STATES...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONNECTS VIA A WEAK SURFACE              
TROUGH TO ANOTHER LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM             
WINNIPEG ACROSS ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...TO A LOW IN             
THE CANADIAN MARITIME. PATCHY FOG IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                
MODELS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4. A PORTION OF               
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL CANADA TODAY. A WEAK               
LOW WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA IN THIS FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE              
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROCEED             
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE LOW               
LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...WITH THE SNOW MELT OVER THE            
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND EXPECTED MORE MELTING TODAY...THERE MAY             
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SNOWS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.                
THUS WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT MENTION OF SNOW TODAY AND AREAS OF FOG               
EARLY. THE WINDS WILL VEER NORTH FOLLOWING THE FROPA BRINGING COOLER            
AIR INTO THE AREA.                                                              
THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN               
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE RIDGE OVER            
THE ROCKIES BUILDS. THE SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL PROCEED TO               
SOUTHERN OHIO AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHIFT INTO               
LOWER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN               
HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE               
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 13C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT            
THE START OF SOME ENHANCE LES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST            
AREA. MODIS SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE AREAS OF ICE ON             
LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL LIMIT LES DEVELOPMENT. THUS WILL KEEP ONLY             
A CHANCE OF LES GOING OVER AREAS PRONE TO LES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.              
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.              
THE DELTA-T`S WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 21C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE INCREASE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT              
INCREASED LES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. ICE OVER THE LAKE             
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT FETCH TIME OVER THE LAKE. SO LES WILL BE MORE            
WIDESPREAD WITH A ONLY FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.                                     
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TREK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT.               
THE DELTA-T`S WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE LAKE AROUND 21C. 925MB              
WINDS SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WILL                          
CONTINUE...KEEPING LES IN THE GRID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ICE AND               
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF HEAVY LES.              
THESE SAME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY THING IS            
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES CASUING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND START BACKING               
WEST.                                                                           
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
THE LES WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LOST OF A NORTHWEST FLOW             
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH THE               
DELTA-T`S. ON THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE TRACKS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...             
A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL KILL OFF ANY REMAINING LES.              
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF ALBERTA AND INTO THE NORTHERN                  
MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY TAKING AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                     
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT              
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THE LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHEREAS             
THE GFS PREFERS A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE U.P. IN                 
EITHER CASE THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOW MUCH            
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE WHICH SOLUTION PANS            
OUT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA...AND WINDS HAVE TURNED                           
NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER THE              
CIGS REMAIN AT OR NEAR IFR. AT SAW...THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW              
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT                   
NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR. COULD SEE               
SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS                
SOME BR MIXED IN WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE             
THRU TUESDAY. AS FOR CMX...THE IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN            
THE NE FLOW SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS            
SHIFT NORTH. WITH THE WINDS STAYING N-NW TONIGHT INTO                           
TUE...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR IFR VSBYS OR CIGS AT CMX.            
AS THE OH VLY LOW DEEPENS TONIGHT INTO TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY            
AT BOTH SITES ON TUESDAY MORNING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO VEER NORTHERLY TODAY AS             
A TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN                   
DOMINATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN               
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO 30 KT FROM TUE              
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED              
TUE INTO WED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MRD                                                                    
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
645 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION                                                  
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN              
CANADA AND A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE            
STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN                  
WISCONSIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE HIGH BLANKETING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN               
STATES...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONNECTS VIA A WEAK SURFACE              
TROUGH TO ANOTHER LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM             
WINNIPEG ACROSS ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...TO A LOW IN             
THE CANADIAN MARITIME. PATCHY FOG IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                
MODELS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4. A PORTION OF               
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL CANADA TODAY. A WEAK               
LOW WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA IN THIS FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE              
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROCEED             
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE LOW               
LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...WITH THE SNOW MELT OVER THE            
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND EXPECTED MORE MELTING TODAY...THERE MAY             
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SNOWS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.                
THUS WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT MENTION OF SNOW TODAY AND AREAS OF FOG               
EARLY. THE WINDS WILL VEER NORTH FOLLOWING THE FROPA BRINGING COOLER            
AIR INTO THE AREA.                                                              
THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN               
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE RIDGE OVER            
THE ROCKIES BUILDS. THE SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL PROCEED TO               
SOUTHERN OHIO AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHIFT INTO               
LOWER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN               
HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE               
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 13C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT            
THE START OF SOME ENHANCE LES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST            
AREA. MODIS SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE AREAS OF ICE ON             
LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL LIMIT LES DEVELOPMENT. THUS WILL KEEP ONLY             
A CHANCE OF LES GOING OVER AREAS PRONE TO LES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.              
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.              
THE DELTA-T`S WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 21C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE INCREASE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT              
INCREASED LES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. ICE OVER THE LAKE             
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT FETCH TIME OVER THE LAKE. SO LES WILL BE MORE            
WIDESPREAD WITH A ONLY FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.                                     
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TREK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT.               
THE DELTA-T`S WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE LAKE AROUND 21C. 925MB              
WINDS SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WILL                          
CONTINUE...KEEPING LES IN THE GRID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ICE AND               
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF HEAVY LES.              
THESE SAME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY THING IS            
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES CASUING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND START BACKING               
WEST.                                                                           
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
THE LES WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LOST OF A NORTHWEST FLOW             
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH THE               
DELTA-T`S. ON THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE TRACKS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...             
A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL KILL OFF ANY REMAINING LES.              
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF ALBERTA AND INTO THE NORTHERN                  
MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY TAKING AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                     
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT              
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THE LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHEREAS             
THE GFS PREFERS A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE U.P. IN                 
EITHER CASE THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOW MUCH            
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE WHICH SOLUTION PANS            
OUT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO                  
PERSIST AT KCMX THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KSAW            
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN MVFR SC DECK BY LATE THIS MORNING. EVENTUAL               
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY BREAK UP THE CLOUDS AT KCMX LATE               
TODAY... BUT NOT AT KSAW WHERE LONGER FETCH AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE N             
FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE SC DECK FOR A LONGER TIME. LITTLE OR NO             
LES IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FROPA DUE TO MARGINAL COLD               
AIR AND LOW INVERSION BASE. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY                  
ARRIVE THIS EVENING...SO WILL DRIER AIR. SO EXPECT NO VSBY                      
RESTRICTION EVEN AT KSAW WHERE FETCH/UPSLOPE MORE FVRBL. CAA WILL               
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ENOUGH COOLING FOR SOME LIGHT LES OVERNIGHT                
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSAW. NRLY FLOW WILL NOT FAVOR KCMX             
FOR LES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO VEER NORTHERLY TODAY AS             
A TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN                   
DOMINATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN               
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO 30 KT FROM TUE              
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED              
TUE INTO WED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
MARINE/AVIATION...JLB                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN              
CANADA AND A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE            
STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN                  
WISCONSIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE HIGH BLANKETING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN               
STATES...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONNECTS VIA A WEAK SURFACE              
TROUGH TO ANOTHER LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM             
WINNIPEG ACROSS ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...TO A LOW IN             
THE CANADIAN MARITIME. PATCHY FOG IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                
MODELS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4. A PORTION OF               
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL CANADA TODAY. A WEAK               
LOW WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA IN THIS FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE              
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROCEED             
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE LOW               
LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...WITH THE SNOW MELT OVER THE            
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND EXPECTED MORE MELTING TODAY...THERE MAY             
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SNOWS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.                
THUS WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT MENTION OF SNOW TODAY AND AREAS OF FOG               
EARLY. THE WINDS WILL VEER NORTH FOLLOWING THE FROPA BRINGING COOLER            
AIR INTO THE AREA.                                                              
THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN               
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE RIDGE OVER            
THE ROCKIES BUILDS. THE SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL PROCEED TO               
SOUTHERN OHIO AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHIFT INTO               
LOWER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN               
HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE               
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 13C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT            
THE START OF SOME ENHANCE LES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST            
AREA. MODIS SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE AREAS OF ICE ON             
LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL LIMIT LES DEVELOPMENT. THUS WILL KEEP ONLY             
A CHANCE OF LES GOING OVER AREAS PRONE TO LES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.              
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.              
THE DELTA-T`S WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 21C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE INCREASE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT              
INCREASED LES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. ICE OVER THE LAKE             
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT FETCH TIME OVER THE LAKE. SO LES WILL BE MORE            
WIDESPREAD WITH A ONLY FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.                                     
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TREK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT.               
THE DELTA-T`S WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE LAKE AROUND 21C. 925MB              
WINDS SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WILL                          
CONTINUE...KEEPING LES IN THE GRID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ICE AND               
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF HEAVY LES.              
THESE SAME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY THING IS            
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES CASUING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND START BACKING               
WEST.                                                                           
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
THE LES WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LOST OF A NORTHWEST FLOW             
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH THE               
DELTA-T`S. ON THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE TRACKS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...             
A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL KILL OFF ANY REMAINING LES.              
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF ALBERTA AND INTO THE NORTHERN                  
MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY TAKING AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                     
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT              
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THE LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHEREAS             
THE GFS PREFERS A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE U.P. IN                 
EITHER CASE THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOW MUCH            
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE WHICH SOLUTION PANS            
OUT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ALTHOUGH NEAR SFC WIND IS SW...FLOW ABV THE SFC APPEARS TO BE MORE              
WNW...WHICH HAS PREVENTED LO CLD MASS TO THE SW FM ADVANCING TOWARD             
CMX/SAW. SO ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW FOG/MVFR VSBY THRU               
THE NGT...LOOK FOR CLR-PCLDY SKIES WITH LLVL FLOW LIKELY TO VEER                
SLOWLY THRU THE NGT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FNT TO THE N SINKING SLOWLY              
SWD. BEST CHC FOR LO CIG TO DVLP WL BE AT CMX...WHERE THIS WNW FLOW             
WL UPSLOPE. TIMING OF COLD FROPA FM THE N APPEARS TO BE A BIT                   
SLOWER...SO PUSHED BACK ONSET OF PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS ACCOMPANYING             
THE LLVL CAD/STEEPENING SFC-H85 LAPSE RATES BEHIND THIS FEATURE.                
EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE CLD AT CMX LATE            
TDAY... BUT NOT AT SAW WHERE LONGER FETCH/FVRBL UPSLOPE N FLOW WL               
MAINTAIN SC DECK FOR A LONGER TIME. ANY LES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE              
FROPA WL BE MINIMAL DUE TO MARGINAL CHILL/LO INVRN BASE. ALTHOUGH               
COLDER AIR WL GRDLY ARRIVE THIS EVNG...SO WL DRIER AIR. SO EXPECT NO            
VSBY RESTRICTION EVEN AT SAW WHERE FETCH/UPSLOPE MORE FVRBL.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT WINDS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO VEER NORTHERLY TODAY AS             
A TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN                   
DOMINATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN               
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO 30 KT FROM TUE              
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED              
TUE INTO WED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1227 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/DISCUSSION                                         
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS THROUGH DAY 2.  IN THE               
NEAR TERM THIS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEAR SKY AND HAZE OVER MUCH              
OF THE AREA...AND FOG OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CREEPING SOUTHEASTWARD            
ACROSS THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER.  ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE WEATHER.             
ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE APPROACH OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS INVADING FROM THE            
NORTH TONIGHT.                                                                  
HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WAS WAY TOO WARM...EVEN 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE            
GFS ENSEMBLE HIGH GUIDANCE VALUES.  MAY MAKE OTHER SMALLER                      
ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE ARE THE MAIN POINTS FOR NOW.               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 431 AM)...                                               
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE UPPER                 
GREAT LAKES REGION...WEAK TROUGHS ARE OVER MARYLAND AND                         
MISSOURI...AND ANOTHE RIDGE IS OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.             
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS TRYING TO COME ASHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.            
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LARGE HIGHS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND             
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOSED LOWS ARE OVER SOUTHERN                  
HUDSON BAY AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COLD                
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND             
NORTHERN MANITOBA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE THE AREA FROM SOUTH              
CENTRAL CANADA.                                                                 
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 WITH ONLY MINOR             
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH. THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL              
SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WEAKENING SETTING UP A ZONAL FLOW                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVES CAUGHT IN THE ZONAL FLOW             
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY TODAY. A RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.            
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPREAD OUT TODAY...WHILE A             
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. THE ANTI-CYCLONIC             
FLOW BEHIND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARMER             
AIR FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE 850MB                 
TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE ABOUT SAME AS YESTERDAY OVER THE AREA.                    
TRAJECTORY PROGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH              
WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.            
THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO...JUST NORTH            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD               
PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADD SOME              
CLOUDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.                                                   
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALBERTA TONIGHT. A               
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EDGE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. FORECAST SOUNDINGS               
SUGGEST A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900MB BY MIDNIGHT AND FAIRLY DRY              
ABOVE THIS POINT...AND MOIST BELOW. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TOO DRY               
AND WARM FOR LES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. VERY LITTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS               
OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK. THUS WILL KEEP THE                
FORECAST DRY.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN ALBERTA ON MONDAY               
CAUSING A TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE              
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RELOCATE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER              
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA.                         
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK. SO WILL ADD                  
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND AREAS OF A              
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE NAM/GFS SOLUTION TO IDENTIFY                  
AREAS.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT             
ALONG WITH INCREASED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE                
ACROSS THE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REACH CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. AN               
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA INCREASING THE            
DELTA-T`S TO AROUND 20C. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LES TO DEVELOP             
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
A DEEPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT                
INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE NORTHERN AND             
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL               
CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION CAUSING THE                    
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 23C...MORE THAN                      
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP LES GOING OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN                 
FAVORED AREAS WITH A NORTH WIND.                                                
THE TROUGH WILL DEPART THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC LATE. THE SURFACE RIDGE               
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTIVELY CAUSING THE LES TO               
END LATE. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS.                                                                         
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SWING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN             
WISCONSIN ON THUSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                
SPREAD OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW.                 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP              
GENERATE SNOWS OVER THE AREA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CEIGS AND VIS WILL START THE PERIOD...AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM            
THE NORTH.  MVFR CEIGS AND VIS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 06Z            
TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE VICINITY.  THIS FRONT WILL              
ALSO ACT TO SWING WESTERLY WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY                            
DIRECTION...ASSISTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLOUD COVER THROUGH             
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING                
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG              
THE WEST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW PENSINSULA. NORTH WINDS TO              
30 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE OVER CENTRAL              
AND EAST UPPER MI AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE                 
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A HIGH BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS              
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING IN COLDER AIR             
WITH FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KF                                                                     
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
855 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS THROUGH DAY 2.  IN THE               
NEAR TERM THIS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEAR SKY AND HAZE OVER MUCH              
OF THE AREA...AND FOG OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CREEPING SOUTHEASTWARD            
ACROSS THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER.  ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE WEATHER.             
ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE APPROACH OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS INVADING FROM THE            
NORTH TONIGHT.                                                                  
HIGH TEMPERATURE TUESDAY WAS WAY TOO WARM...EVEN 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE            
GFS ENSEMBLE HIGH GUIDANCE VALUES.  MAY MAKE OTHER SMALLER                      
ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE ARE THE MAIN POINTS FOR NOW.               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 431 AM)...                                               
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE UPPER                 
GREAT LAKES REGION...WEAK TROUGHS ARE OVER MARYLAND AND                         
MISSOURI...AND ANOTHE RIDGE IS OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.             
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS TRYING TO COME ASHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.            
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LARGE HIGHS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND             
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOSED LOWS ARE OVER SOUTHERN                  
HUDSON BAY AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COLD                
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND             
NORTHERN MANITOBA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE THE AREA FROM SOUTH              
CENTRAL CANADA.                                                                 
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 WITH ONLY MINOR             
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH. THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL              
SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WEAKENING SETTING UP A ZONAL FLOW                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVES CAUGHT IN THE ZONAL FLOW             
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY TODAY. A RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.            
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPREAD OUT TODAY...WHILE A             
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. THE ANTI-CYCLONIC             
FLOW BEHIND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARMER             
AIR FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE 850MB                 
TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE ABOUT SAME AS YESTERDAY OVER THE AREA.                    
TRAJECTORY PROGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH              
WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.            
THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO...JUST NORTH            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD               
PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADD SOME              
CLOUDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.                                                   
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALBERTA TONIGHT. A               
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EDGE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. FORECAST SOUNDINGS               
SUGGEST A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900MB BY MIDNIGHT AND FAIRLY DRY              
ABOVE THIS POINT...AND MOIST BELOW. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TOO DRY               
AND WARM FOR LES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. VERY LITTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS               
OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK. THUS WILL KEEP THE                
FORECAST DRY.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN ALBERTA ON MONDAY               
CAUSING A TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE              
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RELOCATE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER              
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA.                         
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK. SO WILL ADD                  
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND AREAS OF A              
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE NAM/GFS SOLUTION TO IDENTIFY                  
AREAS.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT             
ALONG WITH INCREASED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE                
ACROSS THE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REACH CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. AN               
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA INCREASING THE            
DELTA-T`S TO AROUND 20C. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LES TO DEVELOP             
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
A DEEPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT                
INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE NORTHERN AND             
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL               
CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION CAUSING THE                    
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 23C...MORE THAN                      
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP LES GOING OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN                 
FAVORED AREAS WITH A NORTH WIND.                                                
THE TROUGH WILL DEPART THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC LATE. THE SURFACE RIDGE               
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTIVELY CAUSING THE LES TO               
END LATE. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS.                                                                         
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SWING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN             
WISCONSIN ON THUSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                
SPREAD OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW.                 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP              
GENERATE SNOWS OVER THE AREA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT DRY AIR MASS TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PD AT BOTH            
TAF SITES WITH MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES IN THE            
OH VALLEY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING                
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG              
THE WEST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW PENSINSULA. NORTH WINDS TO              
30 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE OVER CENTRAL              
AND EAST UPPER MI AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE                 
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A HIGH BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS              
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING IN COLDER AIR             
WITH FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KF                                                                     
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
431 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE UPPER                 
GREAT LAKES REGION...WEAK TROUGHS ARE OVER MARYLAND AND                         
MISSOURI...AND ANOTHE RIDGE IS OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.             
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS TRYING TO COME ASHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.            
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LARGE HIGHS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND             
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOSED LOWS ARE OVER SOUTHERN                  
HUDSON BAY AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COLD                
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND             
NORTHERN MANITOBA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE THE AREA FROM SOUTH              
CENTRAL CANADA.                                                                 
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 WITH ONLY MINOR             
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH. THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL              
SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WEAKENING SETTING UP A ZONAL FLOW                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVES CAUGHT IN THE ZONAL FLOW             
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY TODAY. A RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.            
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPREAD OUT TODAY...WHILE A             
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. THE ANTI-CYCLONIC             
FLOW BEHIND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARMER             
AIR FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE 850MB                 
TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE ABOUT SAME AS YESTERDAY OVER THE AREA.                    
TRAJECTORY PROGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH              
WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.            
THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO...JUST NORTH            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD               
PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADD SOME              
CLOUDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.                                                   
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALBERTA TONIGHT. A               
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EDGE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. FORECAST SOUNDINGS               
SUGGEST A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900MB BY MIDNIGHT AND FAIRLY DRY              
ABOVE THIS POINT...AND MOIST BELOW. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TOO DRY               
AND WARM FOR LES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. VERY LITTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS               
OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK. THUS WILL KEEP THE                
FORECAST DRY.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN ALBERTA ON MONDAY               
CAUSING A TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE              
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RELOCATE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER              
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA.                         
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK. SO WILL ADD                  
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND AREAS OF A              
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE NAM/GFS SOLUTION TO IDENTIFY                  
AREAS.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT             
ALONG WITH INCREASED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE                
ACROSS THE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REACH CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. AN               
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA INCREASING THE            
DELTA-T`S TO AROUND 20C. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LES TO DEVELOP             
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
A DEEPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT                
INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE NORTHERN AND             
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL               
CONTINUE TO DRAW COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION CAUSING THE                    
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 23C...MORE THAN                      
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP LES GOING OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN                 
FAVORED AREAS WITH A NORTH WIND.                                                
THE TROUGH WILL DEPART THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC LATE. THE SURFACE RIDGE               
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTIVELY CAUSING THE LES TO               
END LATE. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS.                                                                         
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SWING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN             
WISCONSIN ON THUSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                
SPREAD OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW.                 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP              
GENERATE SNOWS OVER THE AREA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT DRY AIR MASS TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PD AT BOTH            
TAF SITES WITH MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES IN THE            
OH VALLEY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING                
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG              
THE WEST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW PENSINSULA. NORTH WINDS TO              
30 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE OVER CENTRAL              
AND EAST UPPER MI AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE                 
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A HIGH BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS              
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING IN COLDER AIR             
WITH FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1015 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...AND TRIM                
DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR TODAY.  WEAK FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY  OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST               
OVER WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MN TODAY.  SFC LOW OVR EAST CENTRAL               
KANSAS...WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST OVR CNTRL MO DURING THE PERIOD.              
PRECIP OCCURRING OVR FAR SOUTH HAS BEEN A MIXTURE OF LIGHT SNOW OR              
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND SNOWFALL                  
AMOUNTS FOR TODAY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH.                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 256 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                               
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FEATURED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA                  
THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED RETURNS ON RADAR                
CORRELATE WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE RUC 290K SURFACE. THIS                 
AREA IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA                    
TODAY...WHICH CONCURS WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF PROGGED 700MB LOW                   
TRACK FROM SWRN SD ACROSS ERN NE AND SRN IA. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL                
POTENTIAL IS THEREFORE RESTRICTED TO EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...WITH                 
MAX AMOUNTS IN THE CWA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE                      
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. TRACE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED                     
ELSEWHERE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE INHIBITED BY THE                 
FACT THAT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS                     
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING...WHERE                 
08Z TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. NAM/GFS/RUC BUFKIT                  
SOUNDINGS FOR REDWOOD FALLS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE FREEZING PRECIP               
POTENTIAL...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW COMMON BETWEEN 10 AND NOON.               
QPF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IS LIGHT HOWEVER...SO MINIMAL ICE                     
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.                                                  
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DENSE FOG THAT IS PLAGUING                
THE MIDSECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE WIDESPREAD METARS ARE               
REPORTING SUB-QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES. WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE                 
ADVISORY INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS                           
MORNING...WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN                 
THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVERSELY...WILL BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW COUNTIES               
OVER WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES IS                     
OCCURRING DUE TO THE SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASE IN               
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.                                                          
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE DIURNAL WARMING                         
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO                 
NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS BETWEEN 28 AND 34 DEGREES.                                    
A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE WILL PLUMMET ACROSS MN/WI ON TUESDAY...WHICH              
MAY GENERATE SOME FLURRIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10               
AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH                     
READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 DEGREES.                                      
A MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM                
CANADA ON THURSDAY. 800MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS SPREADS ACROSS THE                
CWA ON THURSDAY. GFS COBB OUTPUT GENERALLY INDICATES SNOWFALL                   
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES FOR THE THURSDAY                     
EVENT...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE TAF SITES DURING THE            
PERIOD. STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS              
OVR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH EARLY                     
AFTERNOON. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VSBL SLOWLY                 
LIFTING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.                  
CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  DRY LOW LEVEL              
AIRFLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURG             
THE PERIOD.  SFC LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTRY PRECIP...CONTINUE TO            
DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. SOME LIGHT SNOW                     
DEVELOPING OVR THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90                
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     BLUE EARTH-FARIBAULT-MARTIN-WATONWAN.                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/BAP/JVM                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
632 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL                  
MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBS AND REPORTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST               
MN INDICATE THAT FREEZING RAIN IS THE INITIAL PRECIP TYPE AT                    
ONSET. WITH SUB-FREEZING SURFACE OBS AND A SIMILAR LOW LEVEL                    
PROFILE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN...EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE                         
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SINCE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE            
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SNOW /1 TO 3 INCHES/...ELECTED TO GO WITH               
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.                                                      
ALSO TRIMMED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...AS                    
SURFACE VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE                    
MILES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 256 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                               
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FEATURED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA                  
THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED RETURNS ON RADAR                
CORRELATE WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE RUC 290K SURFACE. THIS                 
AREA IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA                    
TODAY...WHICH CONCURS WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF PROGGED 700MB LOW                   
TRACK FROM SWRN SD ACROSS ERN NE AND SRN IA. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL                
POTENTIAL IS THEREFORE RESTRICTED TO EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...WITH                 
MAX AMOUNTS IN THE CWA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE                      
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. TRACE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED                     
ELSEWHERE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE INHIBITED BY THE                 
FACT THAT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS                     
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING...WHERE                 
08Z TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. NAM/GFS/RUC BUFKIT                  
SOUNDINGS FOR REDWOOD FALLS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE FREEZING PRECIP               
POTENTIAL...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW COMMON BETWEEN 10 AND NOON.               
QPF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IS LIGHT HOWEVER...SO MINIMAL ICE                     
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.                                                  
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DENSE FOG THAT IS PLAGUING                
THE MIDSECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE WIDESPREAD METARS ARE               
REPORTING SUB-QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES. WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE                 
ADVISORY INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS                           
MORNING...WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN                 
THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVERSELY...WILL BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW COUNTIES               
OVER WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES IS                     
OCCURRING DUE TO THE SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASE IN               
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.                                                          
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE DIURNAL WARMING                         
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO                 
NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS BETWEEN 28 AND 34 DEGREES.                                    
A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE WILL PLUMMET ACROSS MN/WI ON TUESDAY...WHICH              
MAY GENERATE SOME FLURRIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10               
AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH                     
READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 DEGREES.                                      
A MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM                
CANADA ON THURSDAY. 800MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS SPREADS ACROSS THE                
CWA ON THURSDAY. GFS COBB OUTPUT GENERALLY INDICATES SNOWFALL                   
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES FOR THE THURSDAY                     
EVENT...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
MAIN CONCERN NEXT SVRL HRS IS WDSPRD DNS FOG EC AND SE MN. PASSAGE              
OF WK CDFNT WHICH AT 10Z RAN FROM NR CBG TO HCD TO MML WL IMPV                  
VSBY AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES IN. VSBYS WL LIKELY RMN AOB 1/4SM AT              
MSP TIL 14Z TO 15Z AND RWF BY TAF ISSUE TIME. OTHER CONCERN IS A                
SML CHC OF -FZRA SW MN NEXT FEW HRS...MADE A MENTION AT RWF TAF                 
FOR A COUPLE HRS...BUT MAIN THREAT WL BE S OF RWF. AS WK CDFNT MVS              
THRU TEMPS IN LWR FEW THOUSAND FEET WL COOL ENUF FOR ANY PCPN TO                
CHG TO -SN.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BLUE              
     EARTH-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-                    
     HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-                   
     RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLUE             
     EARTH-FARIBAULT-MARTIN-WATONWAN.                                           
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-POLK.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/BAP                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
628 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DROPPING DFA OVER SWRN CWA. VISIBILTY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS                   
LAYER OF CAA BEGINS TO DEEPEN. TWEKED POPS AS WELL OVER CWA AS                  
VERY LITTLE PRECIP OCCURING WITH SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM MANITOBA.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS CWA. TWO NOTEWORTHY                 
ITEMS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN SHORT TERM... AND               
CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW THURSDAY/FRIDAY.                                  
TODAY...MSAS ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK SFC LOW OVER WRN SUPERIOR LOSING             
IDENTITY...PHASING INTO A SFC TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN EDGE OF CWA.               
LATEST RUC13 INDICATES TRANSIENT AREA OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR 85H IS             
WORKING EAST ALONG SRN EDGE OF CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS             
OCCURRING BENEATH THIS ENHANCED INVERSION. SUSPECT THAT WRN EDGE                
OF DFA WILL ERODE QUICKLY AS COOLING OCCURS BEHIND 925/85H SHIFT                
TO NW WIND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS...MAY NEED TO DROP DFA EARLIER               
OVER SW CWA. OTHERWISE..NW MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP FAIR AMOUNT OF                
CLOUD COVER ACROSS REGION EARLY BEFORE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP BY                   
AFTERNOON OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF DEEPER LAYER DRYING PER EC/GFS.              
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS IS ON DEVELOPING LES. FAVORED PARAMETERS           
INCLUDE SFC/85H MINIMAL SHEAR...SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE RH...FCST             
OMEGA WITHIN FAVORED DENDRITE ZONE AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF LES                  
POTENTIAL. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE MORE ICE COVER ON LAKE ALONG                
FCST TRAJECTORY AND INVERSION HEIGHT OF 3/4K. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT               
DECIDE IF ENOUGH CONFIDENCE PREVAILS TO ISSUE LES ADVISORY. SUSPECT             
THAT WE WILL HAVE A EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS                     
INCREASING TUESDAY EVENING WITH ADDITION OF ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED              
BY DIGGING SHORTWAVE.                                                           
EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID LVL HEIGHTS INCREASE                
OVER REGION SOMEWHAT HOWEVER NWRLY FLOW PREVAILS. WITH MEAN RIDGE               
ALONG WRN PART OF CONUS..ANY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING PACNW WILL AMPLIFY            
AS IT HEADS FROM WRN CANADA INTO UPPER MIDWEST. FAIRLY DECENT MDL               
CONSENSUS WITH  EC/GFS/CMC PUSHING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF CWA THURSDAY             
INTO FRIDAY.                                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED                        
THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBRD              
TO KHIB TO KBFW...INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE WERE HIGH                
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD...LEADING TO VARIABILITY IN BOTH VSBYS AND              
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. THE FOG AND LOW DECK SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE             
DAY TODAY...AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. AN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS OVER                
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH                 
TODAY. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE SNOW               
SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS.             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  29  12  20   4 /  20  20  10  10                                           
INL  25   5  17   2 /  10  10  10  10                                           
BRD  33  13  23   7 /  20  10  10  10                                           
HYR  33  13  22   3 /  30  30  20  10                                           
ASX  31  15  20   5 /  30  30  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR PINE.                   
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BURNETT-                
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
CANNON/MELDE                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
451 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 256 AM CST                                              
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FEATURED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA                  
THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED RETURNS ON RADAR                
CORRELATE WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE RUC 290K SURFACE. THIS                 
AREA IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA                    
TODAY...WHICH CONCURS WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF PROGGED 700MB LOW                   
TRACK FROM SWRN SD ACROSS ERN NE AND SRN IA. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL                
POTENTIAL IS THEREFORE RESTRICTED TO EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...WITH                 
MAX AMOUNTS IN THE CWA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE                      
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. TRACE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED                     
ELSEWHERE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE INHIBITED BY THE                 
FACT THAT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS                     
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING...WHERE                 
08Z TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. NAM/GFS/RUC BUFKIT                  
SOUNDINGS FOR REDWOOD FALLS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE FREEZING PRECIP               
POTENTIAL...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW COMMON BETWEEN 10 AND NOON.               
QPF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IS LIGHT HOWEVER...SO MINIMAL ICE                     
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.                                                  
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DENSE FOG THAT IS PLAGUING                
THE MIDSECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE WIDESPREAD METARS ARE               
REPORTING SUB-QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES. WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE                 
ADVISORY INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS                           
MORNING...WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN                 
THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVERSELY...WILL BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW COUNTIES               
OVER WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES IS                     
OCCURRING DUE TO THE SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASE IN               
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.                                                          
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE DIURNAL WARMING                         
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO                 
NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS BETWEEN 28 AND 34 DEGREES.                                    
A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE WILL PLUMMET ACROSS MN/WI ON TUESDAY...WHICH              
MAY GENERATE SOME FLURRIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10               
AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH                     
READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 DEGREES.                                      
A MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM                
CANADA ON THURSDAY. 800MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS SPREADS ACROSS THE                
CWA ON THURSDAY. GFS COBB OUTPUT GENERALLY INDICATES SNOWFALL                   
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES FOR THE THURSDAY                     
EVENT...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
MAIN CONCERN NEXT SVRL HRS IS WDSPRD DNS FOG EC AND SE MN. PASSAGE              
OF WK CDFNT WHICH AT 10Z RAN FROM NR CBG TO HCD TO MML WL IMPV                  
VSBY AS DRIER AIR INFLITRATES IN. VSBYS WL LIKELY RMN AOB 1/4SM AT              
MSP TIL 14Z TO 15Z AND RWF BY TAF ISSUE TIME. OTHER CONCERN IS A                
SML CHC OF -FZRA SW MN NEXT FEW HRS...MADE A MENTION AT RWF TAF                 
FOR A COUPLE HRS...BUT MAIN THREAT WL BE S OF RWF. AS WK CDFNT MVS              
THRU TEMPS IN LWR FEW THOUSAND FEET WL COOL ENUF FOR ANY PCPN TO                
CHG TO -SN.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-           
     BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-                 
     GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-                    
     MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-                  
     SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.                           
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-POLK.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAP/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
334 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS CWA. TWO NOTEWORTHY                 
ITEMS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN SHORT TERM... AND               
CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW THURSDAY/FRIDAY.                                  
TODAY...MSAS ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK SFC LOW OVER WRN SUPERIOR LOSING             
IDENTITY...PHASING INTO A SFC TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN EDGE OF CWA.               
LATEST RUC13 INDICATES TRANSIENT AREA OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR 85H IS             
WORKING EAST ALONG SRN EDGE OF CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS             
OCCURRING BENEATH THIS ENHANCED INVERSION. SUSPECT THAT WRN EDGE                
OF DFA WILL ERODE QUICKLY AS COOLING OCCURS BEHIND 925/85H SHIFT                
TO NW WIND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS...MAY NEED TO DROP DFA EARLIER               
OVER SW CWA. OTHERWISE..NW MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP FAIR AMOUNT OF                
CLOUD COVER ACROSS REGION EARLY BEFORE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP BY                   
AFTERNOON OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF DEEPER LAYER DRYING PER EC/GFS.              
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS IS ON DEVELOPING LES. FAVORED PARAMETERS           
INCLUDE SFC/85H MINIMAL SHEAR...SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE RH...FCST             
OMEGA WITHIN FAVORED DENDRITE ZONE AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF LES                  
POTENTIAL. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE MORE ICE COVER ON LAKE ALONG                
FCST TRAJECTORY AND INVERSION HEIGHT OF 3/4K. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT               
DECIDE IF ENOUGH CONFIDENCE PREVAILS TO ISSUE LES ADVISORY. SUSPECT             
THAT WE WILL HAVE A EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS                     
INCREASING TUESDAY EVENING WITH ADDITION OF ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED              
BY DIGGING SHORTWAVE.                                                           
EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID LVL HEIGHTS INCREASE                
OVER REGION SOMEWHAT HOWEVER NWRLY FLOW PREVAILS. WITH MEAN RIDGE               
ALONG WRN PART OF CONUS..ANY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING PACNW WILL AMPLIFY            
AS IT HEADS FROM WRN CANADA INTO UPPER MIDWEST. FAIRLY DECENT MDL               
CONSENSUS WITH  EC/GFS/CMC PUSHING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF CWA THURSDAY             
INTO FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED                        
THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBRD              
TO KHIB TO KBFW...INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE WERE HIGH                
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD...LEADING TO VARIABILITY IN BOTH VSBYS AND              
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. THE FOG AND LOW DECK SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE             
DAY TODAY...AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. AN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS OVER                
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH                 
TODAY. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE SNOW               
SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS.             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  28  12  20   4 /  20  20  10  10                                           
INL  24   5  17   2 /  10  10  10  10                                           
BRD  32  13  23   7 /  20  10  10  10                                           
HYR  32  13  22   3 /  40  30  20  10                                           
ASX  30  15  20   5 /  30  30  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CROW WING-              
     PINE-SOUTHERN AITKIN.                                                      
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BURNETT-                
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
CANNON/MELDE                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
256 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FEATURED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA                  
THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED RETURNS ON RADAR                
CORRELATE WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE RUC 290K SURFACE. THIS                 
AREA IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA                    
TODAY...WHICH CONCURS WITH THE NAM/GFS/SREF PROGGED 700MB LOW                   
TRACK FROM SWRN SD ACROSS ERN NE AND SRN IA. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL                
POTENTIAL IS THEREFORE RESTRICTED TO EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...WITH                 
MAX AMOUNTS IN THE CWA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE                      
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. TRACE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED                     
ELSEWHERE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE INHIBITED BY THE                 
FACT THAT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS                     
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING...WHERE                 
08Z TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. NAM/GFS/RUC BUFKIT                  
SOUNDINGS FOR REDWOOD FALLS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE FREEZING PRECIP               
POTENTIAL...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW COMMON BETWEEN 10 AND NOON.               
QPF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IS LIGHT HOWEVER...SO MINIMAL ICE                     
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.                                                  
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DENSE FOG THAT IS PLAGUING                
THE MIDSECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE WIDESPREAD METARS ARE               
REPORTING SUB-QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES. WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE                 
ADVISORY INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS                           
MORNING...WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN                 
THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVERSELY...WILL BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW COUNTIES               
OVER WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES IS                     
OCCURRING DUE TO THE SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASE IN               
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.                                                          
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE DIURNAL WARMING                         
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO                 
NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS BETWEEN 28 AND 34 DEGREES.                                    
A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE WILL PLUMMET ACROSS MN/WI ON TUESDAY...WHICH              
MAY GENERATE SOME FLURRIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10               
AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH                     
READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 DEGREES.                                      
A MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM                
CANADA ON THURSDAY. 800MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS SPREADS ACROSS THE                
CWA ON THURSDAY. GFS COBB OUTPUT GENERALLY INDICATES SNOWFALL                   
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES FOR THE THURSDAY                     
EVENT...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SPLIT WINDOW SATELLITE PICS (11-3.9 MICRON) SHOW A WELL DEFINED                 
AREA OF LOW STATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN                      
WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND SMALLER AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KDLH. TO               
THE WEST OF THIS AREA...IFR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON FROM GROUND FOG               
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. WE HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN OUR VERY                      
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IN STATUS AND FOG OVER                 
OUR EASTERNMOST MN TAF SITES ALONG WITH OUR WISCONSIN SITES. SLOW               
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT              
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY BY LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS                       
NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE                     
SURFACE LOW CROSSING IOWA. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN              
MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-           
     BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-                  
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-               
     MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-                    
     RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-                 
     SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.                              
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/WET                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1037 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS                
ADVISORY...WITH SAINT JAMES/FAIRMONT DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AT                  
THIS TIME. MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE MINNESOTA PART                
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW FREE AREA ALONG THE                  
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. NAM/GFS/RUC BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF               
FOG ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL...SO WITH              
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SAID MODEL DATA...ELECTED TO                   
EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. EXPECTATION IS THAT THE FOG SHOULD               
IMPROVE BY 15Z...WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING DUE TO THE DEEPENING              
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI                   
VALLEY.                                                                         
THANKS FOR THE COORD ARX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SPLIT WINDOW SATELLITE PICS (11-3.9 MICRON) SHOW A WELL DEFINED                 
AREA OF LOW STATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN                      
WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND SMALLER AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KDLH. TO               
THE WEST OF THIS AREA...IFR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON FROM GROUND FOG               
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. WE HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN OUR VERY                      
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IN STATUS AND FOG OVER                 
OUR EASTERNMOST MN TAF SITES ALONG WITH OUR WISCONSIN SITES. SLOW               
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT              
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY BY LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS                       
NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE                     
SURFACE LOW CROSSING IOWA. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN              
MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE             
     EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-                       
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-               
     MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-                    
     RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-                 
     SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.                              
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/99                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
521 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 300 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008/                               
IN THE NEAR TERM MAIN ISSUE IS WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRATUS AND              
FOG ACROSS CENTRAL MN. SOME VSBYS ON S PERIPHERY OF STRATUS HAVE                
DROPPED TO 1/2SM OR LESS.  SOME DEVELOPING STRATUS HAS EVEN BEGUN TO            
SHOW IN E SODAK WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. RUC HAS CAPTURED THIS TO SOME             
EXTENT AND TRIES TO LIFT IT NE IN SWLY FLOW...BUT LOOKING LIKE MUCH             
OF CENTRAL MN WILL REMAIN UNDER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG THRU MUCH OF                
MORNING.                                                                        
REMAINDER OF AREA SHOUD SEE HAZY SUNSHINE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES               
AGAIN UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY WITH RELATIVELY MILD EARLY MORNING                
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP FROM.                                                      
SOME CONCERN THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN COMING NIGHT MAINLY                
CENTRAL MN INTO WI IF CLOUDS DON`T THICKEN SOON ENOUGH. WILL LEAVE              
THIS TO DAY SHIFT TO ADD FOG IF NECESSARY.                                      
GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY SIMILAR ON QPF OUTPUT FROM SYSTEM DIVING ACROSS            
IOWA ON MONDAY BRINGING QUARTER INCH QPF JUST INTO SC MN WHILE NAM              
BRINGS IT AS FAR NORTH AS MKT AND MVE AREA.  EVEN WITH PWATS                    
INCREASING ABOVE 1/2 INCH MONDAY MORNING QPF OUTPUT ON NAM SEEMS TOO            
HIGH.  IT DOES BRING ISENTROPIC LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO MN...BUT                
SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS BRIEF. DIFFICULT TO BUCK THE TREND OF LAST TWO              
MONTHS WITH SNOW TRACK REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 CORRIDOR IN               
OUR CWA. THE 2-4 INCH SNOW NOW IN GRIDS FOR SC MN FOR MONDAY/MONDAY             
EVENING LOOK REASONABLE AND DIDN`T CHANGE THEM.  STILL LOOKS LIKE               
PRECIP COULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AS A MIX IN SW/SC MN WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT NOSE ABOVE FREEZING ON GFS/NAM PROGGED SOUNDINGS.                   
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN GFS               
AND ECMWF.  BUMPED UP POPS A BIT...MAINLY NORTHERN CWA.                         
STILL NO REAL COLD AIR TO TAP FOR COMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES                 
REMAINING MILD WELL ABOVE 60 DEGREE NORTH LATITUDE. LOOKS LIKE                  
FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE FEBRUARY READINGS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
EXPECT THE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF                    
CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING...WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KAXN/KSTC                    
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 18Z. EXPECT KRWF/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU TO EXPERIENCE              
MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT                
TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE AREA OF                
STRATUS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO                  
AFFECT KEAU THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE BROUGHT IN A PERIOD OF               
SCATTERED CLOUDS CIRCA 2K FEET. MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE                
ON THIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS.                         
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED                
THIS EVENING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN               
MN AND IOWA. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 06Z                     
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT MAY EXPERIENCE SNOW                    
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD IS KRWF.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-                
     CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MILLE LACS-               
     MORRISON-POPE-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD.                        
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAP/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
300 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IN THE NEAR TERM MAIN ISSUE IS WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRATUS AND              
FOG ACROSS CENTRAL MN. SOME VSBYS ON S PERIPHERY OF STRATUS HAVE                
DROPPED TO 1/2SM OR LESS.  SOME DEVELOPING STRATUS HAS EVEN BEGUN TO            
SHOW IN E SODAK WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. RUC HAS CAPTURED THIS TO SOME             
EXTENT AND TRIES TO LIFT IT NE IN SWLY FLOW...BUT LOOKING LIKE MUCH             
OF CENTRAL MN WILL REMAIN UNDER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG THRU MUCH OF                
MORNING.                                                                        
REMAINDER OF AREA SHOUD SEE HAZY SUNSHINE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES               
AGAIN UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY WITH RELATIVELY MILD EARLY MORNING                
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP FROM.                                                      
SOME CONCERN THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN COMING NIGHT MAINLY                
CENTRAL MN INTO WI IF CLOUDS DON`T THICKEN SOON ENOUGH. WILL LEAVE              
THIS TO DAY SHIFT TO ADD FOG IF NECESSARY.                                      
GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY SIMILAR ON QPF OUTPUT FROM SYSTEM DIVING ACROSS            
IOWA ON MONDAY BRINGING QUARTER INCH QPF JUST INTO SC MN WHILE NAM              
BRINGS IT AS FAR NORTH AS MKT AND MVE AREA.  EVEN WITH PWATS                    
INCREASING ABOVE 1/2 INCH MONDAY MORNING QPF OUTPUT ON NAM SEEMS TOO            
HIGH.  IT DOES BRING ISENTROPIC LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO MN...BUT                
SIGNIFANT LIFT IS BRIEF. DIFFICULT TO BUCK THE TREND OF LAST TWO                
MONTHS WITH SNOW TRACK REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 CORRIDOR IN               
OUR CWA. THE 2-4 INCH SNOW NOW IN GRIDS FOR SC MN FOR MONDAY/MONDAY             
EVENING LOOK REASONABLE AND DIDN`T CHANGE THEM.  STILL LOOKS LIKE               
PRECIP COULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AS A MIX IN SW/SC MN WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT NOSE ABOVE FREEZING ON GFS/NAM PROGGED SOUNDINGS.                   
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN GFS               
AND ECMWF.  BUMPED UP POPS A BIT...MAINLY NORTHERN CWA.                         
STILL NO REAL COLD AIR TO TAP FOR COMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES                 
REMAINING MILD WELL ABOVE 60 DEGREE NORTH LATITUDE. LOOKS LIKE                  
FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE FEBRUARY READINGS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
MOISTURE FROM THE SNOWMELT THAT OCCURRED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...AND                
ADJACENT AREAS SOUTH AND WEST DURG THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A             
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRFLOW(WITH DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING 20 DEGREES)...WILL             
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS               
DUE TO FOG OVR THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  LIGHT                 
SOUTHEAST-SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE                
SNOW COVERED AND CONDENSE JUST NORTH OF SNOW FIELD. VISIBILITIES                
BETWEEN 3-5 MILES IN FOG WILL BE COMMON THRU 17Z UTC SUNDAY MORNING.            
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED TO            
BROKEN CEILING UNDER ONE THOUSAND FEET AGL IN STRATUS BEFORE                    
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAKUP AND DISSIPATE              
BY LATE MORNING.  MEANWHILE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD               
EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH            
PLAINS.  VFR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF            
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAP/JVM                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
930 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FROM 03Z SUGGESTS THE SFC LOW IS LOCATED                
JUST ENE OF KJEF ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS IS A BIT FUTHER                 
NORTH THAN EVEN THE NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION IN                     
ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM SECTOR REMAINS MORE SCATTERED IN                
NATURE AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED INTO IL. THE                    
DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH LOOKED PRETTY ROBUST LATE THIS AFTERNOON                 
ACROSS IA HAS WEAKENED IN OVERALL INTENSITY BUT IS STILL PRODUCING              
SOME MESOSCALE BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW FROM CENTRAL IA INTO NRN                  
IL...BUT ONLY LIGHT SNOW FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO KS. ITS                
MAJOR AXIS HAS SHIFTED SEWD OVER THE LAST 4-5 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION              
WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE PLAINS SHRTWV/VORT MAX. RAIN HAS                   
CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE LAST HR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS                
OF KNOX AND LEWIS COUNTY.  STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35-40 MPH                  
HAVE BEEN OCCURING FROM NW MO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE               
OF THE SFC LOW.                                                                 
THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z NAM/RUC HAVE BACKED OFF THE                  
INTENSITY OF THE MESOSCALE FORCING AND VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE AS IT SWINGS SEWD ACROSS THE AREA                     
TONIGHT. ACCORDINGLY THERE IS LESS QPF AS WELL. GIVEN THE LOCATION              
OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN WEST CENTRAL IL ATTM AND LACK OF                
UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION...THIS APPREARS REASONABLE. I THINK THERE                
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND SOME SNOW...BUT UNLESS THE DEF ZONE                    
REDEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES...THE TRENDS TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE                
NEWEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUR CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE A BIT ON THE              
HIGH SIDE. OUTSIDE OF A SNOW BURST OR TWO THE PROBABILITY OF                    
GETTING VSBYS WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OF 1/4SM OR LESS LOOK                  
PRETTY LOW AS WELL. I`M NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THE HEADLINES NOW                
AS I WAS EARLIER WHEN I SAW THE 18Z RUC AND CGEM...HOWEVER I`M A                
BIT HESITANT TO DROP THE ADVSRY ALL TOGETHER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED              
POTENTIAL FOR A BURST...WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE MORNING RUSH HR IN              
THE STL AREA. ATTM MY PLANS ARE TO LOWER THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                 
EXCEPT FOR NE MO/WEST CENTRAL IL AND TONE THE WORDING DOWN A BIT.               
THE MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EVALUATE THE NEED FOR CONTINUING             
THE HEADLINES.                                                                  
GLASS                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OBVIOUSLY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS UPCOMING WX TRENDS               
FOR TNGT AND TUE. AS WAS FEARED YSTDA...EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN               
CONTS TO TREND A BIT FURTHER S WITH THE LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY                
JUST EAST OF MKC. AS THE LOW TRACKS JUST S OF STL THIS EVENING                  
LARGE BAND OF PCPN OCRG N OF THE LOW FROM SE NE INTO S IA WL ALSO               
DROP SE...WITH ADDITIONAL DVLPMT OCRG OVR THE AREA AS INITIALLY                 
DRY LO LVLS IS FCST TO SATURATE QUICKLY. AS FAR AS THE CHGOVR TO                
SNOW IS CONCERNED...OUR THINKING IS THAT SNW WL BGN ERH THIS                    
EVENING ARND UIN...ABT MIDN NR COU...WITH A RPD CHGOVR OCRG FROM                
STL AND SE IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME.                                           
ONCE THE CHGOVR TO SNOW OCCCURS..CONSENSUS QPF FROM MODELS SUGGESTS             
THAT ACCUM IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TUE                
ALG AND E OF A MEXICO...WARRENTON...NASHVILLE IL LN...WITH THE                  
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVR CNTRL IL SECTION OF OUR FA. STG NW WNDS               
GUSTING TO ARND 40 MPH WL BE CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND                 
THINK THAT ONCE THE CHGOVR TO SNOW OCRS CONDS WL DETERIORATE                    
QUICKLY. HV OPTED TO ISSUE A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR                 
THE ABV AREAS DUE TO THIS THRT...WITH THE ONSET OF THE ADVSRY TIED              
TO THE START TIMES OF THE SNOW AS GIVEN IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF               
THE AFD.                                                                        
CERTAINLY...THE SGFNT PCPN WL BE WINDING DOWN TMRW AFTN...WITH                  
WNDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING DURG THE LT AFTN AND EVENING HRS AS SFC RDG               
PUSHES E AND GRADIENT OVR REGION BGNS TO RELAX.                                 
TEMPS WL BGN DROPPING TNGT IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...AND SHUD                
CONTINUE THEIR DROP MOST OF THE DAY TUE AND INTO TUE NGT.                       
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FCST PKG...WED-SUN...GOING TRENDS WL                  
GENLY REMAIN UNCHGD AS MODEL SOLNS CONT TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN                 
CONSISTENCY. HV KEPT MAX TEMPS TWD THE LO SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON                   
WED...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO NR OR SLGLTLY ABV NORMAL THU-SUN. A THRT           
OF PCPN WL CONT THU NGT AND FRI WITH NXT SYS...BUT WITH MOST OF                 
THE DYNAMICS RMNG WELL N OF AREA THINK POPS WL BE LO. AND COOLING               
BHND SYSTEM JUST CLIPPING AREA NO BIG CHG IS TEMPS IS EXPECTED                  
WITH PASSAGE OF FNT. STGR SYSTEM DOES APR IN THE OFFING BY                      
MONDAY...WITH A DROP IN TEMPS AT THAT TIME.                                     
TRUETT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...                                                             
A WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS TONIGHT. SYSTEM                 
MOVING FROM GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                     
TONIGHT WILL SPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH                
POSSIBLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST/WEST SIDE OF THE                
LOW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-30KTS...PERHAPS WITH EVEN HIGHER               
GUSTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE                  
VALLEY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL                         
FALL TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ISN`T AS ROBUST WITH THE SNOWFALL AS              
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT NOT QUITE READY TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO                
THE FORECAST BASED ON ONE RUN OF THE MODELS. WILL CONTINUE TO                   
MONITOR AND REEVALUATE AS NECESSARY AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES THIS                  
EVENING.                                                                        
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM              
     CST TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN-LINCOLN-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-                    
     RALLS.                                                                     
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST TUESDAY              
     FOR FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-               
     WARREN.                                                                    
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR KNOX-           
     LEWIS-MARION-SHELBY.                                                       
IL...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM              
     CST TUESDAY FOR PIKE IL.                                                   
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST TUESDAY              
     FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-                    
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-                      
     MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.                      
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ADAMS           
     IL-BROWN IL.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1140 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2008                                                     
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MESOSCALE FEATURES NOT BEING HANDLED PARTICULARLY WELL AS RADAR                 
LOOPS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX OVER CENTRAL KS WEST OF HUT AND ANOTHER              
ALONG THE CENTRAL OK/KS BORDER. MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AHEAD             
OF BOTH FEATURES. APPEARS 21Z RUC BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE              
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE POCKET OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED            
WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION. BANDED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS              
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS 1-2             
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET...JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT SLIPPERY TO WARRANT A             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL BE ISSUING ONE SHORTLY.                           
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/339 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2008/                                                    
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                    
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE                   
TONIGHT. MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS KANSAS            
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THINKING THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THIS                 
SYSTEM HEADS INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING              
SHOULD HELP TO COOL COLUMN IN THE 900 TO 800 MB RANGE ENOUGH TO                 
PROMOTE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SURFACE                   
TEMPERATURES TODAY IN AREAS SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY WERE IN THE                    
MIDDLE 30S...SO GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME COLD RAIN                  
INITIALLY. WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE MAINLY              
ANTICIPATING A WET SNOW OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT IF             
ICING STARTS TO OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO GO WITH SOME HEADLINES.                  
18Z RUC AND WRF MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR                 
HOLDING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WITH A STEEP GRADIENT             
AS YOU GO SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WILL LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF            
ANY POPS BASED ON THIS. GREATEST SATURATION...WILL STAY IN AREAS                
ALONG AND SOUTH OF 50 HIGHWAY. 12Z GFS WAS LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH            
IS RH FIELDS...SO WILL HEDGE AND LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS               
FAR NORTH AS AN ATCHISON KANSAS TO CARROLLTON TO FAYETTE LINE BUT               
KEEP CHANCE AND HIGHER POPS TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LEAVENWORTH                     
KANSAS TO BOONVILLE LINE.                                                       
OTHER CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH SOME SNOW MELT                
NORTH TODAY...SEEING THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE              
20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT                    
TONIGHT...AND IF SKIES CAN CLEAR IN THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LIGHT             
WINDS EXPECTED...MAY SEE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG.  FURTHER SOUTH...IF              
DRIER AIR CAN WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE AND HELP TO CLEAR THE SKIES              
LATE TONIGHT IN EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...FOG                       
DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.                                             
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW BY SUNDAY EVENING.            
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON                         
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER. SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH               
SHOULD BE PRETTY MILD. FOG SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN WITH THIS WARM AIR             
OVERRUNNING THE COLD WET GROUND...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO                   
WARRANT MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.                            
PC                                                                              
MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY-SATURDAY)...                                               
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE BEGINNING OF               
THE WEEK AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.                  
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY               
MORNING WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA. WITH                  
SOUTHWESTERLY H85 WINDS OF 50KTS WARMING H85 TEMPS TO 5-10C BY                  
MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW...EXPECTING             
SFC TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER             
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN               
TRICKY AS SFC BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL BARREL THROUGH THE AREA                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WEAK TO MODERATE               
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AS              
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES SUGGEST ALL RAIN TO START OUT WITH THE AREA                
INITIALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.                                                   
AS THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...STRONG CAA SHOULD TAKE             
SHAPE ON THE BACK SIDE AS NORTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL ADVECT IN MUCH                
COLDER TEMPS. IN ADDITION...COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL HELP COOL               
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SO THAT A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOULD              
TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY. RAISED                
POPS THROUGH THE EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE                 
CWA...HOWEVER KEPT WORDING IN THE CHC CATEGORY WITH DIFFERENCES                 
CONTINUING AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. APPEARS BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL               
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS IOWA SO HAVE KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS                  
CONSERVATIVE FOR THE TIME BEING.                                                
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF                  
COLDER AIR TUESDAY AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN DEVELOPING             
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW. STOUT UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED                
ACROSS THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER               
SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD. UPPER FLOW PATTERN GRADUALLY             
FLATTENS A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP              
MODERATE TEMPS. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF               
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR               
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.                  
DEROCHE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAF A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT THE MKC TAF                
THROUGH 08Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG                     
DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS UPSTREAM OVER NORTH CENTRAL             
KS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE AFTER 10Z. THESE LOW             
CEILINGS WILL BE STUBBORN TO GET RID OF AND COULD LAST THROUGH THE              
MORNING HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE                   
SOUTHWEST AND MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED              
TO PERSIST AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.                          
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR MOZ043-MOZ044-               
     MOZ045-MOZ053-MOZ054.                                                      
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ060.               
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL BE SENDING OUT ANOTHER UPDATE SOON. LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST BAND               
OF SNOW SETTING UP AND WILL BE CENTERED ALONG A VIENNA TO DE SOTO               
TO SPARTA LINE OR JUST A TAD NORTH. ALONG THAT AXIS AND 20NM OR SO              
EITHER SIDE I THINK 2-3 INCHES IS A GOOD BET WITH SOME ISOLD 4                  
INCH AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AMOUNTS ACROSS THE STL METRO              
COULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH NORTH TO 2 INCHES SOUTH. WILL BE EXPANDING            
THE ADVSRY A BIT NORTH.                                                         
GLASS                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE EVENING UA DATA ALONG WITH SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                
SHOW THE PLAINS SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED            
WITH CLOSED LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION                   
SHIELD IS WELL DEVELOPED AND QUITE EXPANSIVE WITH A NICE COMMA                  
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 18Z                  
MODEL RUNS AND NEW 00Z RUC AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL                
PEAK IN INTENSITY BTWN 06-09Z AND THEN BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING.                  
PROGGED SYSTEM MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 6-9H AND EXTRAPOLATION WOULD              
BRING THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN JUST SOUTH OF AN AXIS FROM                      
CALIFORNIA TO UNION TO WATERLOO WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE                
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW NOW EXPECTED NORTH OF               
I-70. PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WARM AIR ALOFT              
WAS PRESENT ACROSS SRN MO AND EVEN A 0130Z ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF                
LAMBERT SHOWED A NARROW WARM WEDGE ALOFT PEAKING AT +2 DEGC                     
CENTERED NEAR 800 MB. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF SOME                   
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE OZARKS AND SLEET HAS BEEN NOTED IN               
WEST CENTRAL MO AS WELL. THESE ISSUES WILL PERSIST UNTIL                        
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WINS OUT LATER TONIGHT. AROUND ST LOUIS EAST                
AND NORTHEAST I THINK THEY WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE ALTHO THERE                 
CUD BE SOME SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH THE                
LONGER PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN HAS PROMPTED AN ADVSRY THRU 12Z. POPS               
WERE INCREASED INVOF OF I-70 SWD TO CATEGORICAL. FURTHER UPDATES                
MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE THE EVENING IS DONE. KUDOS TO THE CANADIAN                 
MODEL WHOSE QPF HAS NAILED THE LAST 2 SYSTEMS.                                  
GLASS                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...                                                             
COMMA SHAPED AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KCOU AND METRO TAF                   
SITES OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS                
OF SNOW. SNOW TAPERS OFF BY 12Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
CVKING                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-           
     MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.                   
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR RANDOLPH IL.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1117 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE EVENING UA DATA ALONG WITH SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                
SHOW THE PLAINS SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED            
WITH CLOSED LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION                   
SHIELD IS WELL DEVELOPED AND QUITE EXPANSIVE WITH A NICE COMMA                  
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 18Z                  
MODEL RUNS AND NEW 00Z RUC AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL                
PEAK IN INTENSITY BTWN 06-09Z AND THEN BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING.                  
PROGGED SYSTEM MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 6-9H AND EXTRAPOLATION WOULD              
BRING THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN JUST SOUTH OF AN AXIS FROM                      
CALIFORNIA TO UNION TO WATERLOO WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE                
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW NOW EXPECTED NORTH OF               
I-70. PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WARM AIR ALOFT              
WAS PRESENT ACROSS SRN MO AND EVEN A 0130Z ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF                
LAMBERT SHOWED A NARROW WARM WEDGE ALOFT PEAKING AT +2 DEGC                     
CENTERED NEAR 800 MB. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF SOME                   
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE OZARKS AND SLEET HAS BEEN NOTED IN               
WEST CENTRAL MO AS WELL. THESE ISSUES WILL PERSIST UNTIL                        
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WINS OUT LATER TONIGHT. AROUND ST LOUIS EAST                
AND NORTHEAST I THINK THEY WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE ALTHO THERE                 
CUD BE SOME SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH THE                
LONGER PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN HAS PROMPTED AN ADVSRY THRU 12Z. POPS               
WERE INCREASED INVOF OF I-70 SWD TO CATEGORICAL. FURTHER UPDATES                
MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE THE EVENING IS DONE. KUDOS TO THE CANADIAN                 
MODEL WHOSE QPF HAS NAILED THE LAST 2 SYSTEMS.                                  
GLASS                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...                                                             
COMMA SHAPED AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KCOU AND METRO TAF                   
SITES OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS                
OF SNOW. SNOW TAPERS OFF BY 12Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
CVKING                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-           
     MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.                   
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR RANDOLPH IL.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
1108 AM MST MON FEB 25 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TODAY...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE                
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROF              
MOVES EAST INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LEAVES THE ZONES BENEATH NORTHWEST            
FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN INTEREST FOR TODAY IS A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH            
THIS FLOW...ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. SOME             
GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD BURST OF SNOW AS THIS              
FEATURE MOVES SOUTHWARD BUT IT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY AND THE HEAVIEST               
SNOW SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. TO THE NORTH...UPSLOPE FLOW IS WEAK AND             
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  HAVE DROPPED POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE THE                    
ADVISORY IN PLACE BUT PLAN ON ALLOWING IT TO EXPIRE AT NOON. ZELZER             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM MST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
FORECAST PACKAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE BEING UPDATED                
TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST                  
MONTANA...AS SNOW BANDS WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A                 
FAST-MOVING...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA                
FOR THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES               
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE VALLEYS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE                       
MOUNTAINS. COHEN/BRUSDA                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 1800Z.                                                                  
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD                 
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THOUGHT TOMORROW. SNOW WILL               
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SW MT THROUGH THIS                          
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM KHLN TO KBZN AND SOUTH. NORTH OF                        
THIS...EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING CONTINUED LOW               
CEILINGS AND FOG. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO THESE AREAS THIS                   
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING. CLEARING TONIGHT LOW            
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. HOENISCH             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM MST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO                
PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY...AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER              
THE REGION. CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A             
RATHER COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING                        
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO. MODELS PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE            
WELL...AND TAKE IT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF MONTANA THIS                   
MORNING. WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN                       
PLACE...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW             
SOUTH OF A CHOTEAU-GREAT FALLS-LEWISTOWN LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS             
LINE...RUC AND OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE...IF                        
ANY...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY               
RIDES SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS. THUS...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SNOW            
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...WITH THE REST OF THE SNOW ADVISORY               
REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY. SOUTH OF THE CHOTEAU-GREAT            
FALLS-LEWISTOWN LINE...UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE               
OVER THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE                      
MOUNTAINS...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING. FOR THIS                         
AFTERNOON...THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE                
SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND             
IN THE EVENING. BY LATE EVENING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PROMOTE FOG                              
DEVELOPMENT...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP BY                            
MIDNIGHT...WHICH WOULD SCOUR OUT THE FOG POTENTIAL RATHER FAST. WILL            
LET LATER FORECASTS RE-EVALUATE THIS FOG POTENTIAL. ALSO...LOW TEMPS            
TONIGHT ARE TRICKY...AS ENOUGH CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS WOULD                  
SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES...BUT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD               
PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL MODERATING EFFECT. TEMPS COULD FALL FAST BY               
LATE EVENING...AND THEN STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE                 
NIGHT. FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...I WENT WITH A COMPROMISE...GOING                 
UNDER GUIDANCE A BIT...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR FOG THIS MORNING...THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS            
OF THE CWA COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING..                  
THEN ON TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                         
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING              
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND                         
WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE                 
ACROSS THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH                
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE             
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME PRECIP IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD             
GET GOING OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS ON                   
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE            
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE                 
BUILDING IN...ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA               
SUPPORTING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. COHEN                                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH             
PRESSURE WILL COLLAPSE OVER MONTANA DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER            
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF ALBERTA TOWARDS CENTRAL                
MONTANA. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SNOW              
WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH              
CENTRAL MONTANA. BY THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                 
MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR                
THURSDAY FROM CUT BANK...TO GREAT FALLS...TO LEWISTOWN.                         
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION             
FROM COOL AIR TO VERY MILD AIR...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE              
REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES                            
THROUGH...EXPECT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON                            
FRIDAY...HELPING TO USHER IN THE WARMER AIR. RIGHT NOW...WIND SPEEDS            
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE                 
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON               
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS               
THE REGION.                                                                     
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ANOTHER               
CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT                 
ANOTHER QUICK CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING                
COLDER AND FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT ANOTHER             
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE COLD             
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BRUSDA                                                     
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE              
THROUGH THE REGION. A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE                  
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SAUCIER                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  32  19  46  27 / 100   0   0   0                                           
CTB  31  16  44  24 /  40   0   0  10                                           
HLN  33  20  44  23 / 100  20  10   0                                           
BZN  35  13  42  16 / 100  40  10   0                                           
WEY  29   4  30   8 / 100  50  10  10                                           
DLN  32  16  40  21 / 100  40   0   0                                           
HVR  30  13  42  20 /  20   0   0   0                                           
LWT  31  18  42  22 / 100  10   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR MTZ012>014-048>051-054.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
912 AM MST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TODAY...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE                
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROF              
MOVES EAST INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LEAVES THE ZONES BENEATH NORTHWEST            
FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN INTEREST FOR TODAY IS A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH            
THIS FLOW...ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. SOME             
GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD BURST OF SNOW AS THIS              
FEATURE MOVES SOUTHWARD BUT IT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY AND THE HEAVIEST               
SNOW SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. TO THE NORTH...UPSLOPE FLOW IS WEAK AND             
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  HAVE DROPPED POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE THE                    
ADVISORY IN PLACE BUT PLAN ON ALLOWING IT TO EXPIRE AT NOON. ZELZER             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM MST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
FORECAST PACKAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE BEING UPDATED                
TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST                  
MONTANA...AS SNOW BANDS WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A                 
FAST-MOVING...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA                
FOR THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES               
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE VALLEYS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE                       
MOUNTAINS. COHEN/BRUSDA                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 1200Z.                                                                  
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD                  
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH                
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL               
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 18Z. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN              
BE EXPECTED FROM 19Z THROUGH 23Z ACROSS THE REGION. MOUNTAINS WILL              
BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE                
REGION AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND FOR              
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD                   
DEVELOP IF THE AIRMASS COOLS QUICKLY ENOUGH THIS EVENING. SOME                  
LOCATIONS THAT COULD HAVE VLIFR FOG (M1/4SM)...CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z             
TUESDAY INCLUDE GREAT FALLS...HELENA...BOZEMAN AND CUT BANK...AND               
THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY. THUS DENSE FOG COULD            
BE ADDED TO THE TAFS IN LATER UPDATES SHOULD THE DENSE FOG LOOK MORE            
LIKELY TO OCCUR. BRUSDA                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM MST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO                
PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY...AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER              
THE REGION. CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A             
RATHER COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING                        
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO. MODELS PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE            
WELL...AND TAKE IT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF MONTANA THIS                   
MORNING. WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN                       
PLACE...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW             
SOUTH OF A CHOTEAU-GREAT FALLS-LEWISTOWN LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS             
LINE...RUC AND OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE...IF                        
ANY...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY               
RIDES SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS. THUS...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SNOW            
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...WITH THE REST OF THE SNOW ADVISORY               
REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY. SOUTH OF THE CHOTEAU-GREAT            
FALLS-LEWISTOWN LINE...UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE               
OVER THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE                      
MOUNTAINS...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING. FOR THIS                         
AFTERNOON...THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE                
SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND             
IN THE EVENING. BY LATE EVENING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PROMOTE FOG                              
DEVELOPMENT...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP BY                            
MIDNIGHT...WHICH WOULD SCOUR OUT THE FOG POTENTIAL RATHER FAST. WILL            
LET LATER FORECASTS RE-EVALUATE THIS FOG POTENTIAL. ALSO...LOW TEMPS            
TONIGHT ARE TRICKY...AS ENOUGH CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS WOULD                  
SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES...BUT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD               
PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL MODERATING EFFECT. TEMPS COULD FALL FAST BY               
LATE EVENING...AND THEN STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE                 
NIGHT. FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...I WENT WITH A COMPROMISE...GOING                 
UNDER GUIDANCE A BIT...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR FOG THIS MORNING...THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS            
OF THE CWA COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING..                  
THEN ON TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                         
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING              
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND                         
WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE                 
ACROSS THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH                
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE             
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME PRECIP IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD             
GET GOING OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS ON                   
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE            
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE                 
BUILDING IN...ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA               
SUPPORTING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. COHEN                                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH             
PRESSURE WILL COLLAPSE OVER MONTANA DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER            
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF ALBERTA TOWARDS CENTRAL                
MONTANA. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SNOW              
WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH              
CENTRAL MONTANA. BY THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                 
MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR                
THURSDAY FROM CUT BANK...TO GREAT FALLS...TO LEWISTOWN.                         
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION             
FROM COOL AIR TO VERY MILD AIR...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE              
REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES                            
THROUGH...EXPECT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON                            
FRIDAY...HELPING TO USHER IN THE WARMER AIR. RIGHT NOW...WIND SPEEDS            
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE                 
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON               
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS               
THE REGION.                                                                     
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ANOTHER               
CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT                 
ANOTHER QUICK CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING                
COLDER AND FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT ANOTHER             
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE COLD             
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BRUSDA                                                     
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE              
THROUGH THE REGION. A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE                  
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SAUCIER                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  32  19  46  27 / 100   0   0   0                                           
CTB  31  16  44  24 /  40   0   0  10                                           
HLN  33  20  44  23 / 100  20  10   0                                           
BZN  35  13  42  16 / 100  40  10   0                                           
WEY  29   4  30   8 / 100  50  10  10                                           
DLN  32  16  40  21 / 100  40   0   0                                           
HVR  30  13  42  20 /  20   0   0   0                                           
LWT  31  18  42  22 / 100  10   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR MTZ012>014-048>051-054.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
606 AM MST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST PACKAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE BEING UPDATED                
TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST                  
MONTANA...AS SNOW BANDS WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A                 
FAST-MOVING...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA                
FOR THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES               
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE VALLEYS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE                       
MOUNTAINS. COHEN/BRUSDA                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 1200Z.                                                                  
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD                  
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH                
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL               
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 18Z. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN              
BE EXPECTED FROM 19Z THROUGH 23Z ACROSS THE REGION. MOUNTAINS WILL              
BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE                
REGION AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND FOR              
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD                   
DEVELOP IF THE AIRMASS COOLS QUICKLY ENOUGH THIS EVENING. SOME                  
LOCATIONS THAT COULD HAVE VLIFR FOG (M1/4SM)...CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z             
TUESDAY INCLUDE GREAT FALLS...HELENA...BOZEMAN AND CUT BANK...AND               
THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY. THUS DENSE FOG COULD            
BE ADDED TO THE TAFS IN LATER UPDATES SHOULD THE DENSE FOG LOOK MORE            
LIKELY TO OCCUR. BRUSDA                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM MST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO                
PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY...AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER              
THE REGION. CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A             
RATHER COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING                        
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO. MODELS PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE            
WELL...AND TAKE IT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF MONTANA THIS                   
MORNING. WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN                       
PLACE...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW             
SOUTH OF A CHOTEAU-GREAT FALLS-LEWISTOWN LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS             
LINE...RUC AND OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE...IF                        
ANY...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY               
RIDES SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS. THUS...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SNOW            
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...WITH THE REST OF THE SNOW ADVISORY               
REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY. SOUTH OF THE CHOTEAU-GREAT            
FALLS-LEWISTOWN LINE...UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE               
OVER THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE                      
MOUNTAINS...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING. FOR THIS                         
AFTERNOON...THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE                
SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND             
IN THE EVENING. BY LATE EVENING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PROMOTE FOG                              
DEVELOPMENT...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP BY                            
MIDNIGHT...WHICH WOULD SCOUR OUT THE FOG POTENTIAL RATHER FAST. WILL            
LET LATER FORECASTS RE-EVALUATE THIS FOG POTENTIAL. ALSO...LOW TEMPS            
TONIGHT ARE TRICKY...AS ENOUGH CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS WOULD                  
SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES...BUT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD               
PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL MODERATING EFFECT. TEMPS COULD FALL FAST BY               
LATE EVENING...AND THEN STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE                 
NIGHT. FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...I WENT WITH A COMPROMISE...GOING                 
UNDER GUIDANCE A BIT...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR FOG THIS MORNING...THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS            
OF THE CWA COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING..                  
THEN ON TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                         
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING              
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND                         
WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE                 
ACROSS THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH                
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE             
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME PRECIP IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD             
GET GOING OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS ON                   
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE            
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE                 
BUILDING IN...ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA               
SUPPORTING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. COHEN                                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH             
PRESSURE WILL COLLAPSE OVER MONTANA DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER            
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF ALBERTA TOWARDS CENTRAL                
MONTANA. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SNOW              
WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH              
CENTRAL MONTANA. BY THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                 
MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR                
THURSDAY FROM CUT BANK...TO GREAT FALLS...TO LEWISTOWN.                         
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION             
FROM COOL AIR TO VERY MILD AIR...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE              
REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES                            
THROUGH...EXPECT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON                            
FRIDAY...HELPING TO USHER IN THE WARMER AIR. RIGHT NOW...WIND SPEEDS            
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE                 
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON               
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS               
THE REGION.                                                                     
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ANOTHER               
CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT                 
ANOTHER QUICK CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING                
COLDER AND FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT ANOTHER             
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE COLD             
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BRUSDA                                                     
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE              
THROUGH THE REGION. A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE                  
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SAUCIER                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  32  19  46  27 / 100   0   0   0                                           
CTB  31  16  44  24 /  70   0   0  10                                           
HLN  33  20  44  23 / 100  20  10   0                                           
BZN  35  13  42  16 / 100  40  10   0                                           
WEY  29   4  30   8 / 100  50  10  10                                           
DLN  32  16  40  21 / 100  40   0   0                                           
HVR  30  13  42  20 /  40   0   0   0                                           
LWT  31  18  42  22 / 100  10   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR MTZ012>014-048>051-054.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...COHEN/BRUSDA                                                           
SHORT TERM...COHEN                                                              
LONG TERM....BRUSDA/SAUCIER                                                     
AVIATION...BRUSDA                                                               
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
500 AM MST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY                                                   
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO                
PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY...AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER              
THE REGION. CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A             
RATHER COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING                        
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO. MODELS PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE            
WELL...AND TAKE IT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF MONTANA THIS                   
MORNING. WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN                       
PLACE...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW             
SOUTH OF A CHOTEAU-GREAT FALLS-LEWISTOWN LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS             
LINE...RUC AND OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE...IF                        
ANY...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY               
RIDES SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS. THUS...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SNOW            
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...WITH THE REST OF THE SNOW ADVISORY               
REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY. SOUTH OF THE CHOTEAU-GREAT            
FALLS-LEWISTOWN LINE...UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE               
OVER THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE                      
MOUNTAINS...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING. FOR THIS                         
AFTERNOON...THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE                
SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND             
IN THE EVENING. BY LATE EVENING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PROMOTE FOG                              
DEVELOPMENT...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP BY                            
MIDNIGHT...WHICH WOULD SCOUR OUT THE FOG POTENTIAL RATHER FAST. WILL            
LET LATER FORECASTS RE-EVALUATE THIS FOG POTENTIAL. ALSO...LOW TEMPS            
TONIGHT ARE TRICKY...AS ENOUGH CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS WOULD                  
SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES...BUT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD               
PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL MODERATING EFFECT. TEMPS COULD FALL FAST BY               
LATE EVENING...AND THEN STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE                 
NIGHT. FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...I WENT WITH A COMPROMISE...GOING                 
UNDER GUIDANCE A BIT...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR FOG THIS MORNING...THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS            
OF THE CWA COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING..                  
THEN ON TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                         
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING              
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND                         
WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE                 
ACROSS THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH                
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE             
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME PRECIP IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD             
GET GOING OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS ON                   
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE            
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE                 
BUILDING IN...ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA               
SUPPORTING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. COHEN                                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH             
PRESSURE WILL COLLAPSE OVER MONTANA DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER            
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF ALBERTA TOWARDS CENTRAL                
MONTANA. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SNOW              
WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH              
CENTRAL MONTANA. BY THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                 
MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR                
THURSDAY FROM CUT BANK...TO GREAT FALLS...TO LEWISTOWN.                         
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION             
FROM COOL AIR TO VERY MILD AIR...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE              
REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES                            
THROUGH...EXPECT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON                            
FRIDAY...HELPING TO USHER IN THE WARMER AIR. RIGHT NOW...WIND SPEEDS            
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE                 
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON               
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS               
THE REGION.                                                                     
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ANOTHER               
CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT                 
ANOTHER QUICK CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING                
COLDER AND FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT ANOTHER             
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE COLD             
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BRUSDA                                                     
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE              
THROUGH THE REGION. A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE                  
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SAUCIER                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 1200Z.                                                                  
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD                  
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH                
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL               
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 18Z. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN              
BE EXPECTED FROM 19Z THROUGH 23Z ACROSS THE REGION. MOUNTAINS WILL              
BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE                
REGION AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND FOR              
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD                   
DEVELOP IF THE AIRMASS COOLS QUICKLY ENOUGH THIS EVENING. SOME                  
LOCATIONS THAT COULD HAVE VLIFR FOG (M1/4SM)...CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z             
TUESDAY INCLUDE GREAT FALLS...HELENA...BOZEMAN AND CUT BANK...AND               
THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY. THUS DENSE FOG COULD            
BE ADDED TO THE TAFS IN LATER UPDATES SHOULD THE DENSE FOG LOOK MORE            
LIKELY TO OCCUR. BRUSDA                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  32  19  46  27 / 100   0   0   0                                           
CTB  31  16  44  24 /  70   0   0  10                                           
HLN  33  20  44  23 /  80  20  10   0                                           
BZN  35  13  42  16 /  90  40  10   0                                           
WEY  29   4  30   8 /  90  50  10  10                                           
DLN  32  16  40  21 /  90  40   0   0                                           
HVR  30  13  42  20 /  40   0   0   0                                           
LWT  31  18  42  22 / 100  10   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR MTZ012>014-048>051-054.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...COHEN                                                              
LONG TERM....BRUSDA/SAUCIER                                                     
AVIATION...BRUSDA                                                               
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
332 AM MST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO                
PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY...AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE          
REGION. CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A                 
RATHER COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING                        
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO. MODELS PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE            
WELL...AND TAKE IT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF MONTANA THIS                   
MORNING. WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN                       
PLACE...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF                  
SNOW SOUTH OF A CHOTEAU-GREAT FALLS-LEWISTOWN LINE. TO THE NORTH                
OF THIS LINE...RUC AND OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE...IF                
ANY...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY               
RIDES SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS. THUS...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                 
SNOW ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...WITH THE REST OF THE SNOW                   
ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY. SOUTH OF THE                 
CHOTEAU-GREAT FALLS-LEWISTOWN LINE...UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW                  
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES              
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING. FOR THIS                
AFTERNOON...THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE                
SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
AROUND IN THE EVENING. BY LATE EVENING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS              
MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PROMOTE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP BY                            
MIDNIGHT...WHICH WOULD SCOUR OUT THE FOG POTENTIAL RATHER FAST.                 
WILL LET LATER FORECASTS RE-EVALUATE THIS FOG POTENTIAL.                        
ALSO...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY...AS ENOUGH CLEARING WITH                   
LIGHT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES...BUT THE                   
SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL MODERATING EFFECT.                  
TEMPS COULD FALL FAST BY LATE EVENING...AND THEN STAY STEADY OR                 
SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT. FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...I WENT                  
WITH A COMPROMISE...GOING UNDER GUIDANCE A BIT...WITH LOW TEMPS                 
TONIGHT IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS FOR FOG THIS                   
MORNING...THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA COULD EXPERIENCE                  
PATCHY FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING..                                              
THEN ON TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                         
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING              
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND                         
WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE                 
ACROSS THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH                
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE             
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME PRECIP IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD             
GET GOING OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER      
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.                      
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE                 
SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING              
IN...ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA                        
SUPPORTING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. COHEN                                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH             
PRESSURE WILL COLLAPSE OVER MONTANA DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER            
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF ALBERTA TOWARDS CENTRAL                
MONTANA. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SNOW              
WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH              
CENTRAL MONTANA. BY THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                 
MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR                
THURSDAY FROM CUT BANK...TO GREAT FALLS...TO LEWISTOWN.                         
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION             
FROM COOL AIR TO VERY MILD AIR...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE              
REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES                            
THROUGH...EXPECT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON                            
FRIDAY...HELPING TO USHER IN THE WARMER AIR. RIGHT NOW...WIND SPEEDS            
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE                 
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON               
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS               
THE REGION.                                                                     
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ANOTHER               
CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT                 
ANOTHER QUICK CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING                
COLDER AND FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT ANOTHER             
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE COLD             
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BRUSDA                                                     
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE              
THROUGH THE REGION. A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE                  
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SAUCIER                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 0555Z.                                                                  
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS            
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND                  
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT SNOW AND                
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH               
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED             
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LINGER SOUTHWEST MONTANA                 
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF                  
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT THROUGH                  
MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE ENHANCED SNOW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD            
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 09Z IN            
THE NORTH SPREADING SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW               
WILL DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF THE                    
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULSTON                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  32  19  46  27 / 100   0   0   0                                           
CTB  31  16  44  24 /  70   0   0  10                                           
HLN  33  20  44  23 /  80  20  10   0                                           
BZN  35  13  42  16 /  90  40  10   0                                           
WEY  29   4  30   8 /  90  50  10  10                                           
DLN  32  16  40  21 /  90  40   0   0                                           
HVR  30  13  42  20 /  40   0   0   0                                           
LWT  31  18  42  22 / 100  10   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR MTZ012>014-048>051-054.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...COHEN                                                              
LONG TERM....BRUSDA/SAUCIER                                                     
AVIATION...COULSTON                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1121 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...06 TAF. AN AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS ADVECTING NORTH                
FROM KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA ATTM WITH IFR CLOUD HEIGHTS AND               
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG. AS SURFACE WINDS                     
TRANSITION MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL SHIFT                  
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2008/                         
UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE ENDING OF THE                     
PRECIPITATION AND ADJUSTED THE PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG              
INSTEAD. AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DROP IN                   
AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST               
00Z NAM/WRF SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASING               
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE             
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF                   
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN                 
DROPPING IN FOG/FREEZING FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND               
WE MAY NEED A FREEZING FOG TYPE HEADLINE IF VISIBILITIES CONTINUE               
TO FALL.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2008/                          
UPDATE...SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST TO INCREASE                  
POPS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE FAR SOUTH. RAIN/SNOW SHOULD                      
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL                           
KANSAS...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST LIFT                   
SHUTS DOWN ACROSS THAT AREA QUICKLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. AFTER                  
CALLING A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IT APPEARS THE                  
RAIN IS CHANGING TO SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HUNTER KANSAS PICKED              
UP A QUICK HALF INCH OF SNOW IN AN HOUR...SO THINK THAT A FEW                   
SPOTS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. A LITTLE               
SLEET IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THUS FAR REPORTS HAVE               
NOT BROUGHT IT INTO OUR CWA YET.                                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. NUMEROUS FORECAST                     
CONCERNS WITH THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM OVER KANSAS AS WELL AS WITH              
OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.             
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF                   
CENTRAL KANSAS INCLUDING OUR KANSAS ZONES. AS OF EARLY THIS                     
AFTERNOON...MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING IN THE FORM OF               
RAIN...BUT THERE WAS SOME SNOW BEGINNING TO MIX IN AT A FEW                     
LOCATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION IS A RESULT OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER                
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS KANSAS THAT IS SLOWING FILLING               
AND BECOMING WEAKER WITH TIME. THERE IS A LOT OF WARM AIR AROUND THE            
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND 60             
DEGREES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL AREA OF             
LOW PRESSURE ARE MUCH COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.              
CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS AN UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE CONTRAST OF AROUND 25            
DEGREES ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH OUR SOUTHERN KANSAS ZONES            
ACTUALLY BEING THE COLD SPOT AND ORD IN OUR NORTH BEING THE WARMEST             
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE UPPER LOW HAS ENOUGH COLD AIR                      
ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE WET SNOW...AND RAIN MAY GRADUALLY MIX             
WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING             
AS THE THERMAL PROFILE SATURATES AND COOLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.             
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW BURSTS OF SNOW OVER OUR KANSAS                       
ZONES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH DUE             
TO SFC TEMPERATURES HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAKING IT HARD                 
FOR THE SNOW TO STICK. UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PULL OUT            
OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION.               
A WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY               
MAKING FOR A VERY NICE DAY ALL ACROSS OUR CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY             
SUNNY WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S...WITH                  
WESTERN ZONES POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S.                        
THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED WARM UP AS A VERY QUICK MOVING STORM                 
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY A             
VERY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING STORM SYSTEM ON SATELLITE AND IS STILL                  
CHURNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE              
CURRENT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THAT WE ARE IN WILL QUICKLY TAKE THIS                
SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON              
MONDAY. THE ROCKIES WILL LIKELY STRIP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF               
THE SYSTEM AND ITS FAST PACE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH OF A            
FEED OUT OF THE GULF AFTER EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...IT IS            
CURRENTLY A STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM THAT ONE WOULD EXPECT IT TO EMERGE             
FROM THE ROCKIES AS A STILL FORMIDABLE SYSTEM DESPITE THE BEATING               
THAT THE ROCKIES PUT ON IT. IN ADDITION...DECENT MOISTURE WITH                  
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA              
AREA AND COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY TAPPED INTO. CURRENT MODEL                 
FORECASTS HAVE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS BEEN PROJECTING A STORM TRACK              
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE DAY ON                 
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT ENTERS THE PLAINS AND THE                      
QUESTION BECOMES HOW QUICKLY CAN IT DEEPEN. IF IT                               
DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS FAST ENOUGH IT COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS WEATHER                 
RELATED PROBLEMS ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT IF IT IS SLOW TO                          
RESTRENGTHEN THEN LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST LIKE EASTERN NEBRASKA AND              
IOWA WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS                
NOT EVEN COME ASHORE YET...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE                  
EXACT STORM TRACK. ONE THING THAT SEEMS MOST CERTAIN IS THAT A                  
COLD FRONT WILL RIP THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTH                 
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER THE FRONT                  
PASSES. THIS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED                 
VISIBILITIES IF THE SNOW MATERIALIZES AS SOME FORECAST MODELS                   
INDICATE. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE COMPUTER MODEL THAT MOST                   
FAVORS ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. PEOPLE WITH                   
TRAVEL PLANS AROUND THE AREA ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH              
THE LATEST FORECAST.                                                            
LONG TERM...00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON                   
TEMPERATURES WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE             
PERIOD.                                                                         
LINGERING SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BE COMING              
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS ENTIRE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL EAST OF             
THE REGION. ANY ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY EVENING WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ON            
THE ORDER OF FLURRIES TO A DUSTING. SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LIGHT SNOW. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST              
FLOW ALOFT THEN PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH               
CONTINUING ITS MARCH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND AN              
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND              
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BENEATH THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON               
TUESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE              
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER JET               
STREAK DIVES DOWN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT                 
BASED ON PROGGED POSITION OF LEFT EXIT REGION AND ASSOCIATED                    
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BELIEVE ANY CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR                 
LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH            
LEVEL CLOUDS RESULTING FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.             
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH                  
SHIFTS EAST AND H85 TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES UNDER RISING HEIGHTS               
ALOFT AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD. WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND              
THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO DEVELOP LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE             
PREVIOUS NIGHT.                                                                 
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A GLANCING SHOT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR                
SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON THURSDAY. OVERALL CHANCES LOOK PRETTY              
LOW AT THIS POINT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES REMAINING NORTHEAST...BUT             
WILL HANG ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR NOW.              
THIS CLIPPER WAVE SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH BUT THE TRAILING              
SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES EAST ON FRIDAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING                  
BEGINS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST...SO THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD                  
RECOVER TO HIGHS CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND MAYBE EVEN             
WARMER IN THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WHILE A STRONG RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE                 
SURFACE LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. WILL AIM HIGHS IN THE UPPER             
40S TO MID 50S FOR NOW.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
255 PM MST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1023MB HIGH PRES CENTER OVER E AZ AND A                
1002MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER N CENTRAL TX. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND               
PLOT SUPPORTED BY AZTEC AND TUCUMCARI PROFILER DATA SHOWS A 110-140             
KNOT JET ACROSS NM WITHIN THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER                 
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL                
WIND FIELD RESPONSIBLE FOR GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WITH                   
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE E PLAINS. RUC13/NAM20 GUIDANCE SHOWS 700MB               
SPEED MAX OF 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY EJECT EAST                  
INTO W TX THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A                    
LIGHTNING STRIKE WERE NOTED OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS ON THE LATEST                 
RADAR LOOP.                                                                     
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AFTER DARK WITH 1034MB HIGH PRES CENTER              
BUILDING OVER NW NM/SW CO. SHOULD SEE DECENT INVERSIONS IN PLACE                
OVERNIGHT OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW               
SEASONAL AVERAGES. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WEST AND REMAIN PARTLY               
CLOUDY OVER THE EAST AS ANOTHER QUICK HITTING UPPER DISTURBANCE                 
SLIDES SE ACROSS THE NE CORNER OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN             
CO ARE REPORTING PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO LEFT ISOLD POPS                 
OVER THE FAR NE THRU TUESDAY TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE               
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT THAT WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT.                     
A RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO NM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPS              
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A TROUGH                
AXIS MOVES ONSHORE THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPLITS INTO               
TWO PIECES OF ENERGY. ONE PIECE MOVES SE INTO THE BAJA AS A DRY                 
CUT OFF LOW AND THE OTHER RACES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS                   
STATES FRIDAY. EFFECT ACROSS NM WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE                  
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.                                                          
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE FRONT PLOWING DOWN EASTERN PLAINS...VCNTY KLVS-KLBB LINE AT             
21Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD BEFORE 01Z.                   
ISOLATED CONVECTION/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS             
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...BUT EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO             
DISSIPATE 01-03Z.  OTRW...EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 25            
TO 40 KTS PRODUCING ISOLD VSBY OBSCURATIONS IN BLDU TO DIMINISH BY              
06Z.                                                                            
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  26  51  24  54 /   0   0   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  18  50  18  58 /   0   0   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  18  51  18  57 /   0   0   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  29  66  28  70 /   0   0   0   0              
CHAMA...........................  12  42  12  45 /  10   0   0   0              
LOS ALAMOS......................  22  46  24  50 /   0   0   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................  12  37  10  41 /  10   5   0   0              
TAOS............................  14  45  13  50 /   0   0   0   0              
SANTA FE........................  24  49  24  54 /   0   0   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  23  48  23  56 /   0   0   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  20  48  19  59 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  30  55  32  60 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  26  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  30  56  29  60 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  27  56  29  60 /   0   0   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  29  60  28  65 /   0   0   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  45  20  56 /   0   0   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  24  51  20  58 /   0   0   0   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  27  58  30  62 /   0   0   0   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  25  52  27  58 /   0   0   0   0              
RATON...........................  19  47  15  57 /   5  10   0   0              
LAS VEGAS.......................  18  45  21  56 /   5  10   0   0              
ROY.............................  23  47  25  58 /   5  10   0   0              
CLAYTON.........................  25  49  28  60 /   5  10   0   0              
SANTA ROSA......................  30  55  28  67 /   0   5   0   0              
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  54  27  66 /   0  10   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  30  57  29  67 /   0   5   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  30  52  30  64 /   0   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  29  53  29  66 /   0   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  35  59  30  71 /   0   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER/99                                                                        
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
711 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT OFF            
THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING            
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO              
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND             
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE REGION FROM WEST              
TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY             
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW              
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH A LITTLE SLEET OR RAIN            
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE                
LINE...BUT OTHERWISE THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW.              
ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH            
SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL              
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FROM                    
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY                   
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO PUT IN SOME FLURRIES THIS EVENING ACROSS               
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BASED ON KTYX RADAR. ALSO BROUGHT IN            
CHANCE POPS A BIT EARLIER (AFT 06Z) ACROSS THE WESTERN PTNS OF THE              
SOUTHERN TIER BASED ON LATEST RUC, AND 18Z NAM/GFS. AGREE WITH                  
DISCUSSION BELOW ABT GFS OVEREXTENDING AREAL PRECIP COVERAGE OF .01             
QPF LINE BUT 18Z NAM AND THE RUC SUPPORT BRINGING IN CHC POPS TO                
WESTERN PTNS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.               
EARLIER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                   
THE QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF            
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD             
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN             
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO AREA HAS             
BEEN LOCKED UNDER A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT STRATUS ALL DAY...AND THIS             
IS NOW BEING REINFORCED WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS                    
SPREADING INTO WESTERN NY AT 1930Z. SAME STORY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO             
WITH A PLUME OF LOW LAKE EFFECT STRATUS IN PLACE. ALL AREAS WILL                
BECOME OVERCAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS OFF THE EAST            
COAST AND MOISTURE SPREADS EAST FROM THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE               
MIDWEST.                                                                        
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL.               
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WIDESPREAD RETURNS AS FAR EAST AS                 
NORTHWEST INDIANA...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS SHOW NONE OF THIS REACHING              
THE GROUND DUE TO A WELL DEFINED DRY LAYER ALOFT. THE GFS IS MUCH               
FASTER THAN THE NAM AND BRINGS SNOW INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY                
AFTER ABOUT 09Z. THE GFS OFTEN PLACES TOO LARGE OF A FOOTPRINT ON               
ITS QPF OWING TO ITS LOWER RESOLUTION...AND SUSPECT THIS IS THE CASE            
FOR LATER TONIGHT. CANADIAN GEM TIMING IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND                   
NAM...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. WILL REDUCE POPS             
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR LATE                
TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN NY AND             
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHICH IS INTO THE START OF THE 2ND                  
FORECAST PERIOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                          
WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE                    
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY               
FOR A LONG DURATION MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW EVENT.                              
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND ANOTHER                     
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL            
DEFINED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PULLING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL                   
PLAINS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS ARE NOTED ROUNDING THE BASE             
OF THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHICH WILL MOVE ENE AROUND THE               
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND AID IN               
DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. NAM/GFS STILL AT ODDS            
WITH RESPECT TO SOME OF THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM... MOST NOTABLY              
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE               
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. BELIEVE THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK HOLDS              
SOME MERIT...GIVEN THAT THE UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AT 12Z SHOW A                
SLIGHTLY DEEPER/SHARPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAN EITHER             
THE GFS OR NAM INITIALIZATIONS. ALSO...THE TREND THIS ENTIRE WINTER             
HAS BEEN FOR THESE SYSTEMS TO TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST                 
24-36 HOURS OUT. GIVEN THIS...FAVOR THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF               
THE NAM...ALTHOUGH ITS DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO QPF FIELDS ARE                   
SUSPECT GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS TO BE DOING A POOR JOB OF ATTEMPTING              
TO RESOLVE SOME MESOSCALE DETAILS.                                              
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT DETAILS...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN PLACES THE            
BUFFALO CWA WITHIN THE TARGET ZONE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH              
THE 700MB CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKING FROM NW PA TO NEAR LAKE                   
CHAMPLAIN. THERE ARE A MULTITUDE OF FORCING MECHANISMS COMING INTO              
PLAY DURING THE COURSE OF THIS EVENT. FIRST...A SURGE OF                        
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SURGE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM.               
THIS WILL HAVE SOME SUPPORT ALOFT AS WELL WITH AN AREA OF UPPER                 
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT.             
DECENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THIS FIRST STAGE OF THE EVENT WITH             
AROUND 3G/KG ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. WITH THE ISENTROPIC                
UPGLIDE LASTING FOR AN 8-10 HOUR PERIOD...THE GARCIA METHOD WOULD               
SUGGEST AN AVERAGE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION               
PORTION OF THIS STORM.                                                          
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE 700MB CIRCULATION CENTER WILL               
PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL            
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE                   
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE              
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AXIS OF STRETCHING DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTH AND            
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE 700MB LOW...MARKED BY A RIBBON OF                    
ENHANCED 2-D FRONTOGENESIS. NAM-WRF PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO               
THE NY/PA STATE LINE WHERE THETA-E SURFACES BECOME NEARLY VERTICAL              
AND SOME LOW LEVEL NEGATIVE EPV BEGINS TO DEVELOP...BOTH SUGGESTING             
LOW STATIC STABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE             
ELEMENTS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMULATING             
SNOW WITH A LARGE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE ALOFT AND A DEEP                
NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BELOW IN THE FAVORED TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR               
RIMING. GIVEN THE QUALITY OF FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE...THE BEST               
PERIOD FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE TUESDAY                     
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                         
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY WEDNESDAY...BUT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS              
INTO THE SYSTEM THE CHANCES FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL INCREASE ALONG            
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY                  
NIGHT ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO START UP SOME LAKE                    
ENHANCEMENT ON NNE FLOW FROM ROCHESTER TO NIAGARA COUNTY. ON                    
WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NNW AND                
THEN NW WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT SPREADING EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY.                  
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GOOD CLOUD MICROPHYSICS               
THROUGH THE DAY...FURTHER ADDING CREDENCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE             
ENHANCEMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ADD SEVERAL                 
INCHES TO THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.            
36 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9 INCHES IN THE                  
BUFFALO METRO AREA...WHICH WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE LOWEST TOTALS IN              
THIS EVENT...UP TO THE 12-14 INCH RANGE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF                
LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ALSO HAVE 10-12 INCHES FOR THE            
SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO ZONES WHERE             
THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED.                                    
AFTER THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR ATTENTION            
THEN TURNS BACK TO THE MESOSCALE. A NW OR WNW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR             
ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER               
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWING A MODERATE               
COLLIER INDEX AND WELL ALIGNED FLOW. MOST LIKELY TARGET WOULD BE                
FROM NORTHEAST WAYNE INTO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. GIVEN THE                   
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE HAVE JUST KEPT LIKELY POPS              
FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
TWO UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL BRING WEATHER CHANGES THIS PERIOD. THE               
FIRST WILL BRING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES AND NORTH OF            
LAKE ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND ON TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SATURDAY.            
IT WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH WARM ADVECTION ON FRONT SIDE BRINGING A             
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE KEPT IT ALL               
SNOW AND 50 POPS.  WITH PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 1-3 INCH               
RANGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND              
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, WITH                
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE NEXT RIDGE                
BUILDS QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.                                
A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO            
NEAR ZERO LATER IN DAY...SO TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO 35 TO 40 MOST                  
AREAS.                                                                          
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT              
AHEAD OF IT, SPREADING MOISTURE IN DURING MONDAY.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH            
WARMER THAN THE GFS, BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH              
FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE DURING THE DAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
A BROAD AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES             
WEST OF ROCHESTER THIS EVENING...WITH SOME AREAS BREAKING OUT TO                
UNLIMITED AT TIMES. SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND LOWER                   
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO IFR DURING THE MORNING...BUT NOT REACHING            
WATERTOWN UNTIL MID DAY TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE              
IN SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, LOWERING AT TIMES TO LIFR IN MODERATE            
SNOW.                                                                           
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING                   
STORM.                                                                          
THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR/IFR RESTRICTION SE OF LAKE              
ONTARIO IN SNOW SHOWERS.                                                        
FRIDAY...GENERAL SNOWFALL FOR ENTIRE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR                       
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR IFR IN                
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SATURDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THEY BACK TO                 
EAST TO NORTHEAST.  THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS LOW                    
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS MARYLAND. SMALL CRAFT                
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL               
BACK TO NORTH AND INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS GALE FORCE                  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND AND               
DEEPENS. THEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL                  
REMAIN BRISK UNTIL THE NEXT RIDGE APPROACHES THURSDAY.                          
NOTE...SINCE LAKE ERIE IS ALMOST ENTIRELY MOSTLY ICE COVERED...WAVES            
HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE NEARSHORE FORECAST.                                  
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY              
     FOR NYZ004>008.                                                            
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY              
     FOR NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085.                                        
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK                                                            
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJP                                                       
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                          
LONG TERM...APB                                                                 
AVIATION...TMA                                                                  
MARINE...APB                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
646 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT                 
AND REACH SOUTHERN MAINE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE                   
WILL TRY TO RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE QUIET BUT AFTER THAT ALL BETS ARE OFF.                
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND PRECIP SHOULD ROLL IN                
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WRF MODEL AND LATEST RUC DON`T HAVE              
PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES TILL AFT 03Z AND THIS SEEMS                    
REASONABLE. PRECIP WILL BARELY REACH NW PA BY LATE TONIGHT.                     
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE E TO NE OVERNIGHT SO IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL               
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE              
FAR SE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY TRY TO MIX IN. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A              
LITTLE FROM EARLIER FORECAST. HAVE HOISTED WARNINGS FOR ALL BUT                 
FAR SERN ZONES WHICH WILL GET AN ADVISORY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE TO THE S OF KCVG AT 12Z AND THEN QUICKLY                  
MOVE NE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREA WILL BE UNDER LEFT FRONT                  
QUAD OF 140 KNOT 300 MB JET TOMORROW MORNING SO PRECIP SHOULD                   
REALLY GET GOING. BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ALONG LINE               
FROM KMNN TO KMFD TO KYNG DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT HEAVIEST              
PRECIP ALONG THIS AREA. ALTHO MODELS NOW FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH LOW                
TRACK APPEARS NAM IS BRING TOO MUCH PRECIP N. SO...WILL FOLLOW                  
SOMEWHAT DRIER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BUT STILL SHOULD BE ABLE                 
TO MAKE WARNING CRITERIA MOST AREAS. HAVE CONCERN BUT DEPTH OF                  
COLD AIR. DOESN`T APPEAR REALLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE TILL                 
LATE IN THE DAY SO MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING DENDRITES NEEDED                
FOR VERY HEAVY SNOW. ALSO WORRY ABOUT LOW LEVEL TEMPS. SE ZONES                 
COULD GET WARM ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR                
RAIN THUS HAVE GONE WITH AN ADVISORY AS SNOW TOTALS MAY BE HELD                 
DOWN A BIT. SNOW WILL TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC TO LAKE ENHANCED                 
TUESDAY EVENING. WILL END WARNING IN THE WEST AT 03Z WED BUT WILL               
HANG ON TO IT IN THE EAST. MORE LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY INTO                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO NEG 18 DEG. FROZEN LAKE            
ERIE MAY HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS EXCEPT WHERE LAKE HURON FETCH GETS SET               
UP. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU ON THURSDAY FINALLY ENDING PRECIP              
THREAT. BY THAT TIME...NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.                
GUID TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART LOOK OK.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE              
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE INTO THE AREA. THEN CHANCE              
OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND              
SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR MOVES IN IN ADVANCE OF THE            
COLD FRONT. WITH THE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA NOT LOOKING FOR              
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE              
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS NE. LINGERING SNOW                
SHOWERS NE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS            
IN. FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY WITH HIGH MOVING JUST TO THE EAST. NEXT COLD            
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. FOR THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT                 
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO ECMWF MODEL VS. GFS WHICH WHICH WAS ABOUT 12                 
HOURS FASTER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO SPREAD IN AND                 
LOOKING FOR JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSE              
TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
IT IS ONLY DOWNHILL FROM HERE. MVFR STRATUS AND/OR HAZE HAS                     
PERSISTED ALL DAY AT MOST SITES. FAR NE OHIO/NW PA HAS SCATTERED                
OUT BOTH AND ARE SITTING VFR...BUT WITH TIME THIS EVENING THEY                  
WILL REJOIN THE REST IN MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY. LOW PRESSURE OVER                   
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY 12Z TUESDAY. SNOW               
WILL START SPREADING INTO WESTERN AREAS ABOUT 03Z SPREADING INTO                
THE EAST BY ABOUT 08Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED WHEN SNOW FIRST              
BEGINS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER WHICH SHOULD THEN LINGER               
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...00Z WEDNESDAY. PRECIP TYPE                 
OTHER THAN SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING CAK/YNG                
TUE MORNING...BUT BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW A                   
TRANSITION THROUGH FZRA TO RAIN A POSSIBLE SCENARIO. BEGIN TO PICK              
UP THE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LATE IN TUESDAY. STORM              
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 IN PLUS LIKELY ACROSS MOST AREAS. WHILE                
IT WILL BE MODERATELY SNOWING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AREA                   
LOOKS BEST POSITIONED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LIFR SNOW.                 
.OUTLOOK...LOW THEN MOVES ENE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY                   
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR OR AT BEST LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBY LIKELY                  
WITH SNOW TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE                   
NIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.              
ON WEDNESDAY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THOUGH                    
THEY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS IN THE NE WHERE TRANSITION TO LAKE                   
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE. VFR LIKELY THURSDAY WITH HIGH              
PRESSURE MOVING IN. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW                    
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH MVFR/IFR                 
CONDITION POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON                 
SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MOVING THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM             
NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY.  WINDS             
INCREASE TO GALE OR NEAR GALE FORCE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR                 
MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE.  WINDS DROP BELOW GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY.                   
THURSDAY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTH...AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE WEST LAKE FRIDAY              
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY               
     FOR OHZ010>014-020>023-031-089.                                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST                      
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ032-033-038.                                              
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST                  
     TUESDAY FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.                    
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY               
     FOR PAZ001>003.                                                            
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA                                                               
NEAR TERM...KUBINA                                                              
SHORT TERM...KUBINA                                                             
LONG TERM...RANDEL                                                              
AVIATION...OUDEMAN                                                              
MARINE...DJB                                                                    
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
102 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
BRIEF BREAK TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT STRONG FRONT COMES WITH              
RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR AND             
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MADE A FEW CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. KEPT OVC SKIES GOING                
THROUGH 18Z...AS LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH...WITH LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION. MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE CLOUDS LIFT              
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH. HOWEVER, SKIES SHOULD STILL          
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM                         
WEST...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.                                            
ALSO LOWERED MAXT SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE LOWLANDS...WITH LOW                    
CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                    
BIGGEST CHANGE TO FORECAST IN NEAR TERM WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY                    
INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...BECAUSE OF EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL                 
STRATUS DECK THAT EXTENDS ACROSS A MUCH LARGER AREA THAN MODELS                 
HAD FORECAST. AS OF 4AM...THESE CLOUDS COVER WESTWARD ALL THE WAY               
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL OHIO AND                    
NORTHERN INDIANA. THE RUC MODEL HAS DONE THE BEST JOB OF KEEPING                
UP WITH THE COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND USED ITS 900MB RELATIVE              
HUMIDITY DEPICTION TO FORECAST CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z. WITH WARM AIR                
ADVECTION ALOFT...AND EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TODAY...I STILL              
FIGURE THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERING OUT OF LOW                   
CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AT THE SAME TIME HIGH               
CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. FORECAST HIGH                 
TEMPERATURES LEAN STRONGLY ON COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WITH FURTHER                
ADJUSTING DOWNWARD IN SPOTS.                                                    
FOR EVOLUTION OF INCOMING SYSTEM...I WENT ALONG WITH HPC PREFERENCE             
OF GFS VERSUS THE SLOWER NAM. THIS PLACES MAIN FRONTAL RAIN SHOWER              
BAND ALREADY TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...WITH A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT                
ALREADY COMING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AT THAT TIME. WITH HIGH                   
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN...I HAVE 80 TO 90 PERCENT POPS AREA-WIDE LATE               
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NON-DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH RISE TOWARDS             
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL RAIN TONIGHT.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
OTHER THAN GOING WITH THE FASTER GFS IN PUSHING COLD FRONT ACROSS               
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT ON THE               
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW             
IN THE LOWLANDS TO AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY             
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE A DEEP...COLD...MOIST               
CYCLONIC FLOW UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A NORTHWEST OFF THE GREAT             
LAKES. ALSO...IMPORTANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE LOWLANDS...IS              
THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                  
MORNING WHEN A VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. BY                   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL MAINLY BE AN UPSLOPE EVENT WITH STILL             
RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. TEMPS            
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE              
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT                 
LAKES AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT                 
ACROSS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT PRECEDES THIS COLD FRONT                   
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY              
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE                
MILDEST DAY IN THIS PERIOD AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDES THE                
COLD FRONT.  LOOK FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE COLD                      
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WITH DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THIS UPPER                
TROUGH PAYS ONLY A BRIEF VISIT. GENERAL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER            
OF THE NATION WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...LEADING A WARMER AND MORE                
UNSETTLED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE                 
INVERSION HAS KEPT TAF SITES IN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH                           
MIDDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT                 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.                  
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MVFR                   
CEILINGS/OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES/ IN SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONTAL              
PASSAGE TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD.                                               
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z TUESDAY/...                                         
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT               
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.                      
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV                                                              
NEAR TERM...MDP/30                                                              
SHORT TERM...JMV                                                                
LONG TERM...JMV                                                                 
AVIATION...30                                                                   
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1057 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED TO CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA FOR LATER                  
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE               
LOWER LAYERS AND PRESENT INDICATIONS IN KANSAS SUPPORT THIS. OVER               
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THE ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED. DEWPOINT                     
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS IN WEST TEXAS               
AND RUC FORECASTS FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  33  48  27 /  10  10  10   0                              
HOBART OK         74  34  50  28 /  10  10  10   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  36  54  29 /  10  10  10   0                              
GAGE OK           65  27  50  23 /  10  10  10   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     65  28  43  23 /  10  10  10   0                              
DURANT OK         72  38  52  29 /  20  10  10   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CST THIS EVENING           
     FOR OKZ013-019-020-023>031-033>040-044.                                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>012-014>018-          
     021-022.                                                                   
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ033>038-             
     044.                                                                       
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CST THIS EVENING           
     FOR TXZ083>086.                                                            
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
345 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ST AND FOG CONTS TO DCRS E OF FSD AND CIGS SHUD STILL GO NEXT CPL               
HRS. SOME REDVLPMNT OF FOG PSBL THIS EVE BUT WITH HIR CLDS FROM                 
APPCHG SYS ALREADY ADVANCNG TWRDS AREA...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE MORE            
THAN A LTL AVIATION PRBLM. OTRW CLDS WILL CONT TO SLWLY INCRS FROM              
THE W/SW ERY TNGT. NEW NAM12 AND LATEST RUC BOTH CONFIRM DECENT LIFT            
WITH INCRG MID LVL MOISTURE AND INSTBLTY. WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR PCPN            
TO DVLP WELL ENUF TO REACH SFC BUT THE PROCESS WILL BE RAPID AND                
START LATE THIS EVE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF LGT RAIN CHC W OF JAMES              
RVR LATE EVE FROM 9PM TO MDNGHT. TEMPS WILL COOL STEADILY FOR A                 
WHILE THIS EVE BUT THRU MIDNGT THIS INITIAL CHC OF PCPN SHUD BE                 
WHERE SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABV FRZG.                                                
PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z AS MID LEVEL FRONT                     
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT                 
STILL POINTS TO GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF               
OF THE FA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-90...WITH PRECIP TYPE/TRANSITION               
TIMING CRITICAL TO NEED FOR HEADLINES. TEMPS ALOFT WARM ENOUGH LATE             
TONIGHT FOR LIQUID PRECIP THROUGH MOST OF THE FA...WITH A MIX OR                
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURRING IN THE FAR NORTH AND FAR WEST VERY LATE                
IN THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS               
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SNOW EXPECTED OVER MOST OF OUR             
SD/MN COUNTIES BY 15Z WHILE LIQUID PRECIP REMAINS MORE DOMINANT IN              
NE/IA THROUGH 18Z. GREATEST OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM                
HUTCHINSON AND BON HOMME COUNTIES...EAST THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST               
IOWA...WHERE LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES NEAR 0.50 INCH POSSIBLE.                  
TRANSITION TIMING WILL BE KEY TO RESULTANT ICE VS SNOW AMOUNTS. BUT             
GIVEN CURRENT THINKING...END UP WITH 3-5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WITH LESS            
THAN 0.10 INCH ICE IN FAR SOUTHEAST SD COUNTIES AND DIXON COUNTY NE.            
WITH LATER TRANSITION TIME IN NORTHWEST IOWA...HAVE ICE AMOUNTS                 
NEARING 0.20 INCH THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...TOPPED BY 1-3 INCHES OF               
SNOW. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT             
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO THE MIX OF PRECIP TYPES. ADVISORY WILL            
BE SOUTH OF I-90 COUNTIES WHERE OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE                  
LIGHTER...AND NORTH OF SIOUX CITY WHERE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WARMER            
SURFACE TEMPS TO KEEP ICING ISSUES AT BAY.                                      
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST               
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE                
AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR            
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                      
PERSISTANT PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE              
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE NRN PLAINS UNDER GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW. A              
COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER             
HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST IS WEAKER AND MOVES IN             
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS                 
LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTHEAST OF OUR FA AT THIS TIME...BUT             
COULD BRUSH OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP. SECOND IS A LITTLE                 
STRONGER...CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT             
AND SPREADING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR AREA WITH ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH              
TROUGH ON SUNDAY. PRECIP TYPE COULD AGAIN BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH               
EACH OF THESE WAVES...AS MILD WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS SHOTS OF WARMER              
AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF EACH WAVE. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL             
LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF LATE FEBRUARY/EARLY                 
MARCH NORMALS...WITH EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS             
POTENTIAL FOR READINGS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ST AND FOG SHUD CONT TO DSIPT REST OF THIS                
AFTN. MVFR VSBYS IN LGT FOG/HAZE WILL PRBLY PERSIST THRU THE EVE                
SEVRL AREAS. AFT 06Z CUGS AND VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO LWR IN PCPN FROM              
THE W WITH CONDS PRBLY QUICKLY GOING TO MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS             
09Z-15Z. AREA OF MORE WDSPRD IFR SHUD DVLP OVER SRN PART OF AREA BY             
15Z. AFT 18Z THRU 00Z VSBYS WILL SLWLY IMPRV FROM THE W AS PCPN DCRS            
WITH CIGS GRDLY GOING BACK TO MVFR FROM THE WDSPRD IFR.                         
WORTH NOTING THAT BESIDES THE FCST OF ANY FZRA IN TAFS...ICING                  
UPSTAIRS IN PCPN WILL CERTAINLY BE A BIG PRBLM AS WELL.                         
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 3 AM TO 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ065>071.            
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR                        
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022.                                                
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 3 AM TO 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH/WILLIAMS                                                                    
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
935 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE WAS              
MOVING E-NE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...AFFECTING PARTS OF THE              
TN AND OHIO VALLEYS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH 12Z OHX SOUNDING                  
SHOWING VERY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700 MBS...AND 12Z RNK SOUNDING IS                
EVEN MORE DRY BELOW 600 MBS. THUS...THESE INITIAL RADAR RETURNS                 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE FOR THE REST OF THE            
MORNING...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VIRGA ALL QUADS FROM CHA                     
OBSERVATION. I AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE THREAT OF SNOW TODAY...             
EVEN FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SWRN VA...IS EXTREMELY MINIMAL.              
SURFACE TEMPS ARE RUNNING MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TEMPS              
ALOFT GENERALLY 1 TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS PER LATEST RUC MODEL AND 12Z             
UPPER AIR PLOTS.                                                                
I WILL RECONSIDER LIGHT SNOW FOR HIGHEST PARTS OF SWRN VA AND                   
PERHAPS NE TIP OF TN IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HOWEVER...I HAVE                 
VIEWED 00Z AND 06Z MODEL DATA...AND AM NOT CERTAIN THAT THERE IS                
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OR LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT             
SNOWFALL BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.                   
FOR NOW...WILL ADJUST FORECAST GRIDS AND WEB PRODUCTS AS NEEDED...              
BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND HOURLY CONDITIONS.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN    51  34  63  46  52 /  20  10   0  60  80             
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN      49  33  60  44  54 /  30  10   0  60  70             
OAK RIDGE, TN              49  33  60  44  53 /  30  10   0  60  80             
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN     45  32  56  42  50 /  30  20   0  60  60             
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
945 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF              
SMITHVILLE TO GONZALES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION SEVERE                   
STORMS POSSIBLE FOR FAYETTE AND LAVACA COUNTIES.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
AT 8 PM CDT...COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH AND                     
EXTENDED ALONG A ROCKDALE TO AUSTIN TO BOERNE TO UVALDE TO EAGLE                
PASS LINE AT 8 PM. SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT                      
NORTHEAST OF TAYLOR. THE RUC HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE               
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER TO WEST, THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE I-35                  
CORRIDOR. ALSO, TEMPERATURES SHOWED LITTLE DROP OFF BEHIND THE                  
FRONT WITH A DROP OFF NOTED BEHIND A SECOND BOUNDARY ALONG A WACO               
TO BRADY TO OZONA TO FORT STOCKTON LINE. WILL SLOW TEMPERATURE AND              
DEWPOINT FALL BASED ON EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS                
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND PROFILES OVER              
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS SHOW 45 MPH IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL                
HOLD OFF FOR NOW, HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE WIND                   
ADVISORIES FOR ALL OR PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.                              
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY LOOKS ON TRACK.               
NOT MUCH RECOVERY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS WILL BE REPLACED WITH DRY                 
NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A STRONG COLD               
FRONT PLOWS THROUGH TEXAS. THE BLUSTERY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH              
00Z TOMORROW. SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SCT CIRRUS                    
CLOUDS.                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WINDY...HOT...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING                 
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST TO                 
NORTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN            
NEAR 20 MPH. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY           
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL            
REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL            
FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH               
HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY`S. CLEAR              
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL              
COOLING LEADING TO TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL                  
COUNTRY...AND NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.                        
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING           
SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD BE            
EVIDENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED             
IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.      
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ENABLE A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH THE          
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.                                      
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.          
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE HAD MORE TIME TO DEEPEN AND A TROUGH               
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME               
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ATTM...LOW-END CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MODELS            
ARE STILL INDICATING A POLAR COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND            
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF            
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS          
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND BRING EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE ENTIRE REGION.            
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE      
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY          
VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR               
THE SPREAD OF FIRE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  66  37  70  41 /  -    0   0   0   0         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  49  62  32  65  33 /  -    0   0   0   0         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  73  38  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  69  34  69  38 /  -    0   0   0   0         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:             
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...            
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...              
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...               
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...            
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/06                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
833 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AT 8 PM CDT...COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH AND                     
EXTENDED ALONG A ROCKDALE TO AUSTIN TO BOERNE TO UVALDE TO EAGLE                
PASS LINE AT 8 PM. SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT                      
NORTHEAST OF TAYLOR. THE RUC HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE               
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER TO WEST, THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE I-35                  
CORRIDOR. ALSO, TEMPERATURES SHOWED LITTLE DROP OFF BEHIND THE                  
FRONT WITH A DROP OFF NOTED BEHIND A SECOND BOUNDARY ALONG A WACO               
TO BRADY TO OZONA TO FORT STOCKTON LINE. WILL SLOW TEMPERATURE AND              
DEWPOINT FALL BASED ON EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS                
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND PROFILES OVER              
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS SHOW 45 MPH IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL                
HOLD OFF FOR NOW, HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE WIND                   
ADVISORIES FOR ALL OR PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.                              
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY LOOKS ON TRACK.               
NOT MUCH RECOVERY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS WILL BE REPLACED WITH DRY                 
NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A STRONG COLD               
FRONT PLOWS THROUGH TEXAS. THE BLUSTERY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH              
00Z TOMORROW. SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SCT CIRRUS                    
CLOUDS.                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WINDY...HOT...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING                 
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST TO                 
NORTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN            
NEAR 20 MPH. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY           
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL            
REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL            
FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH               
HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY`S. CLEAR              
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL              
COOLING LEADING TO TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL                  
COUNTRY...AND NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.                        
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING           
SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD BE            
EVIDENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED             
IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.      
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ENABLE A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH THE          
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.                                      
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.          
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE HAD MORE TIME TO DEEPEN AND A TROUGH               
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME               
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ATTM...LOW-END CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MODELS            
ARE STILL INDICATING A POLAR COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND            
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF            
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS          
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND BRING EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE ENTIRE REGION.            
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE      
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY          
VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR               
THE SPREAD OF FIRE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  47  66  37  70 /   0  -    0   0   0         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  89  49  62  32  65 /   0  -    0   0   0         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  53  73  38  69 /   0   0   0   0   0         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  48  69  34  69 /   0  -    0   0   0         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:             
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...            
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...              
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...               
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...            
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/06                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
943 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
POST-10Z DENSE FOG DECK THAT QUICKLY EXPANDED INLAND FROM THE                   
SOUTHWEST IS STILL AN ISSUE AT 1530Z. THERE IS A DENSE FOG                      
ADVISORY FOR THE CWA`S SOUTHERN 1/3RD (INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY)                 
THROUGH NOON. VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR UNDER OCCURRING OVER                  
GALVESTON BAY AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES WILL LINGER WELL ON                   
THROUGH NOON AS THE SUN EATS AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE              
DECK. HIGHER SW BREEZES TOWARDS THE MATAGORDA BAY REGION HAVE                   
ALREADY MIXED OUT DENSE FOG...THOUGH FEEL THE GALVESTON BAY AREA                
WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THE SUNSHINE. AFTER INSPECTING THE LOCAL                
AREA SOUNDINGS AND MOS NUMBERS...THEY ALL SUPPORT AFTERNOON                     
MAXIMUMS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.                                              
THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIGHT FOG...OR HAZE...DOES EXIST ACROSS                 
THE SOUTHERN 1/3 COASTAL COUNTIES AND OVER GALVESTON BAY THE ENTIRE             
DAY. TONIGHT`S FROPA IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE CWA FROM                
TUESDAY 06-12Z WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE OF A FOG DISPERSER THAN A                
RAIN MAKER. 31                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS HOUR. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE                  
INCREASED TO AROUND 60 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE WIDESPREAD                   
DENSE FOG HAS ADVECTED INLAND. DRIER AIRMASS HAS PRECLUDED FOG                  
DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE FOG COULD ADVECT               
AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW HAVE REMOVED THE                    
ADVISORY FOR THE NRN COUNTIES. WILL ASSESS IT AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF              
HOURS AND MAYBE TRIM A FEW MORE COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD                   
QUICKLY IMPROVE OVER LAND AREAS BY 14-15Z AS THE SFC WINDS                      
INCREASE...BUT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO RECOVER OVER THE WATERS.                
FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE BAYS/WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS               
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT CROSSES.                                               
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTH                
REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST               
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO 18-20C AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. WITH               
LOTS OF SUN...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 80S MOST INLAND AREAS.              
THE FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX 02-08Z TONIGHT...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE                
WATERS BY SUNRISE. GIVEN THE SPARSE MOISTURE AND STRONG CAPPING...              
LIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL ONLY GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE A             
FEW ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA. CLEAR...BREEZY...COOLER CONDITIONS                    
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. 1030 MB SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER CWA TUE NIGHT               
WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT. EXPECTING A LIGHT FREEZE (29-32                
DEG) FOR RURAL LOCATIONS OVER OUR NRN HALF. DRY/COOL WEATHER WILL               
CONTINUE WED/WED NIGHT...THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD WED                 
NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND              
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED                
OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA                 
FRI/SAT. GFS STILL PUSHES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...                
AND STILL FORECASTS PWS OF 1.1-1.3 INCHES...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP               
20/30 POPS GOING. BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A VIGOROUS TROUGH              
TO CARVE OUT OVER TX BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG               
FROPA ON MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATTER PART                
OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE                
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                        
35                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
ADVECTION/RADIATION FOG SPREADING ACROSS COASTAL ZONES AFFECTING                
GLS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LBX. LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM SGR TO HOU NORTHWARD       
MAY DELAY FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK. OBSERVATIONS THE LAST            
SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THICK LAYER FOG NEARSHORE AND COASTAL                    
ZONES. TAF SITES FARTHER INLAND SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP SHALLOW FOG            
BUT BECOMING THICKER JUST SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. LATEST RUC PROGGED            
VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE FOG LIFTING INTO STRATUS LAYER BY MID MORNING        
AND SHOULD THIN OUT DISSIPATING BEFORE MID DAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING      
TIGHTER AS DAY PROGRESSES WITH WIND DIRECTION PREVAILING FROM SOUTH BY          
LATE MORNING TO NOON.  37                                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM SOUTH TODAY AS            
PRESSURES START TO FALL RAPIDLY OVER NW TX/OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO              
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WINDS PICKING UP TO CAUTION LEVELS             
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SCA FOR 20-60 NM REGION             
TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT        
AND WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW TO                 
20-30 KTS COASTAL WATERS (20-25 KTS BAYS). WAVE HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY            
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE          
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.  37                                                     
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO SE TX IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S              
COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RH VALUES OF 25-30 PCT             
MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER THE NRN/WRN COUNTIES TUE             
AFTN. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT ASSESS THE NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH              
FOR THESE AREAS FOR TUE AFTN. THE LOW RH VALUES WILL PERSIST ON                 
WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.  35/37                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  47  61  33  62 /   0  20   0   0   0             
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  52  63  36  61 /   0  20   0   0   0             
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  55  64  44  59 /   0  20   0   0   0             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:           
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...                    
     LIBERTY.                                                                   
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:           
     GALVESTON BAY.                                                             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP                
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT                
     20 NM.                                                                     
     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON           
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM                  
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS                  
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                       
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH                   
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.                                            
     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO            
     8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM                 
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...                   
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...31                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO ADD FIRE WX                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
353 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS HOUR. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE                  
INCREASED TO AROUND 60 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE WIDESPREAD                   
DENSE FOG HAS ADVECTED INLAND. DRIER AIRMASS HAS PRECLUDED FOG                  
DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE FOG COULD ADVECT               
AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW HAVE REMOVED THE                    
ADVISORY FOR THE NRN COUNTIES. WILL ASSESS IT AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF              
HOURS AND MAYBE TRIM A FEW MORE COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD                   
QUICKLY IMPROVE OVER LAND AREAS BY 14-15Z AS THE SFC WINDS                      
INCREASE...BUT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO RECOVER OVER THE WATERS.                
FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE BAYS/WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS               
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT CROSSES.                                               
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTH                
REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST               
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO 18-20C AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. WITH               
LOTS OF SUN...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 80S MOST INLAND AREAS.              
THE FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX 02-08Z TONIGHT...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE                
WATERS BY SUNRISE. GIVEN THE SPARSE MOISTURE AND STRONG CAPPING...              
LIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL ONLY GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE A             
FEW ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA. CLEAR...BREEZY...COOLER CONDITIONS                    
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. 1030 MB SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER CWA TUE NIGHT               
WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT. EXPECTING A LIGHT FREEZE (29-32                
DEG) FOR RURAL LOCATIONS OVER OUR NRN HALF. DRY/COOL WEATHER WILL               
CONTINUE WED/WED NIGHT...THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD WED                 
NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND              
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED                
OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA                 
FRI/SAT. GFS STILL PUSHES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...                
AND STILL FORECASTS PWS OF 1.1-1.3 INCHES...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP               
20/30 POPS GOING. BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A VIGOROUS TROUGH              
TO CARVE OUT OVER TX BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG               
FROPA ON MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATTER PART                
OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE                
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                        
35                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ADVECTION/RADIATION FOG SPREADING ACROSS COASTAL ZONES AFFECTING                
GLS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LBX. LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM SGR TO HOU NORTHWARD       
MAY DELAY FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK. OBSERVATIONS THE LAST            
SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THICK LAYER FOG NEARSHORE AND COASTAL                    
ZONES. TAF SITES FARTHER INLAND SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP SHALLOW FOG            
BUT BECOMING THICKER JUST SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. LATEST RUC PROGGED            
VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE FOG LIFTING INTO STRATUS LAYER BY MID MORNING        
AND SHOULD THIN OUT DISSIPATING BEFORE MID DAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING      
TIGHTER AS DAY PROGRESSES WITH WIND DIRECTION PREVAILING FROM SOUTH BY          
LATE MORNING TO NOON.  37                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM SOUTH TODAY AS            
PRESSURES START TO FALL RAPIDLY OVER NW TX/OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO              
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WINDS PICKING UP TO CAUTION LEVELS             
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SCA FOR 20-60 NM REGION             
TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT        
AND WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW TO                 
20-30 KTS COASTAL WATERS (20-25 KTS BAYS). WAVE HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY            
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE          
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.  37                                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO SE TX IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S              
COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RH VALUES OF 25-30 PCT             
MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER THE NRN/WRN COUNTIES TUE             
AFTN. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT ASSESS THE NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH              
FOR THESE AREAS FOR TUE AFTN. THE LOW RH VALUES WILL PERSIST ON                 
WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.  35/37                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  47  61  33  62 /   0  20   0   0   0             
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  52  63  36  61 /   0  20   0   0   0             
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  55  64  44  59 /   0  20   0   0   0             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE                    
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...                
     FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...                    
     WALLER...WHARTON.                                                          
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE                    
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS                    
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...                   
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP                
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT                
     20 NM.                                                                     
     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON           
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM                  
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS                  
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                       
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH                   
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.                                            
     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON           
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM                  
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...                   
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...35                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...37                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1213 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND              
EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ARE SLOWLY BREAKING UP. HAVE                    
SENT THE UPDATES PRIMARILY FOR SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE             
TRENDS. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE FOR MONDAY.                 
#58                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008/                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD             
DECK NORTHWEST-EAST OF THE METROPLEX ERODING AWAY. WINDS BECOME                 
SOUTHERLY 5-10KT TONIGHT AS NEXT LEE-SIDE LOW DEEPENS. EXPECT SOUTH             
WINDS 15G28KT TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN WESTERLY IN             
THE AFTERNOONAS DRYLINE/COLD FRONT APPROACHES. 75                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008/                          
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
621 AM CST.                                                                     
GUSTY SOUTH...THEN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RH(S) BELOW 30%                 
MONDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY HIGH GRASS FIRE               
DANGER OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF N TX. TUES (DUE TO LOW RH(S) AGAIN AND               
GOOD MIXING OF NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER                 
POSSIBLE RED FLAG DAY. BUT FOR NOW...THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ONLY FOR              
MONDAY AFTN/EVE FOR THE WRN N TX(SEE ADVISORY LINE BELOW FOR                    
DETAILS).                                                                       
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO INVESTIGATE ANY UPGRADING FOR MONDAY TO A                 
WARNING AND ANY EXTENSION OF THE FIRE WX WATCH INTO TUES (POST-                 
FRONTAL).                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
545 AM CST                                                                      
ALL AIRPORTS NOW IN NORTH FLOW. WINDS BEHIND WEAK FRONT WILL                    
GRADUALLY SLACKEN AND VEER THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING S/SE THIS                  
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR...BUT COLD AIR STRATUS IN               
OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY CLIP METRO TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING.                   
SYNOPTIC MODELS NOT IMPRESSED WITH STRATUS. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON            
CURRENT EVOLUTION...PROJECTING CLOUD BANK TO SLOWLY LIFT AND                    
THIN...PASSING EAST OF THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDDAY. 25                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
342 AM CST                                                                      
SHORT TERM/THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                  
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SWD ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY            
THIS A.M AND SHOULD WASH OUT OVER SRN COUNTIES TODAY...AS PRESSURE              
FALLS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OCCUR RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING TO               
THE NW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE WRN CONUS.               
SOME STRATUS NOTED ON FOG IR OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND MODELS SHOW              
THAT THIS MAY ENCOMPASS AREAS N OF I-20 A GOOD PART OF THE                      
DAY...THUS KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS VALUES OVER THIS REGION...THEN            
WARMER S OF I-20...AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
OTHERWISE...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR SYSTEM/COLD FRONT              
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH FRONT ARRIVING INTO NW PARTS OF N TX BY              
MON EVENING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL VERY WARM COMPARED TO TODAY...DUE TO             
PRE-FRONTAL VEERING OF THE WIND AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. SOME                 
VALUES IN THE 80S EXPECTED W OF I-35 CORRIDOR...70 ELSEWHERE. MODELS            
INDICATE A SLIVER OF PWAT NEAR 1 INCH WILL EXIST OVER FAR ERN                   
COUNTIES WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THUS HAVE SOME LOW                 
CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF N TX LATE MON AFTN/MON             
EVE...LINGERING OVER FAR SE COUNTIES INTO MON A.M. NOTHING                      
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL OR WITH ANY STORMS.                          
OTHERWISE...WINDY AND COLDER LATER MON NIGHT INTO EARLY                         
TUESDAY...WITH FIRE DANGER LIKELY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.                        
LONG TERM/TUES EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/...                                 
DRY FCST EXPECTED MID WEEK WITH A CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS SFC             
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY           
WILL ONLY CREEP INTO THE 50S AND FEEL COLDER THAN THAT DUE TO THE               
GUSTY N/NW WINDS.                                                               
S/W RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS N TX              
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LONG-WAVE PATTERN TRANSFORMS INTO             
A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME...THUS A WARM UP BACK INTO 60S/70S EXPECTED                 
THURS/FRI. WE LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS IN THE LONG TERM PD            
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH/AND MORE                  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE SCENARIO WITH A BRIEF SHOT FOR SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE DRYING OUT SAT NIGHT/SUN...THEN MAYBE                
ANOTHER SHOT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE DEFINITELY DIVERGENT WITH              
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS FAR OUT...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS                  
PRETTY LOW ON STORM SYSTEM EVOLUTION. 05                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  79  42  58  31 /   0   5   5   0   0                  
WACO, TX              52  79  44  60  32 /   0   5  10   5   0                  
PARIS, TX             45  74  39  53  28 /   5  20  10   0   0                  
DENTON, TX            48  77  39  56  30 /   0   5   5   0   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          47  76  40  55  28 /   0  10   5   0   0                  
DALLAS, TX            53  77  42  57  32 /   0   5   5   0   0                  
TERRELL, TX           48  74  42  56  31 /   0  10  20   0   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         48  78  45  59  31 /   0  10  30   5   0                  
TEMPLE, TX            49  80  45  61  31 /   0   5  10   5   0                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING                   
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                                                        
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
58/58                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1130 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD             
DECK NORTHWEST-EAST OF THE METROPLEX ERODING AWAY. WINDS BECOME                 
SOUTHERLY 5-10KT TONIGHT AS NEXT LEE-SIDE LOW DEEPENS. EXPECT SOUTH             
WINDS 15G28KT TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN WESTERLY IN             
THE AFTERNOONAS DRYLINE/COLD FRONT APPROACHES. 75                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008/                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
621 AM CST.                                                                     
GUSTY SOUTH...THEN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RH(S) BELOW 30%                 
MONDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY HIGH GRASS FIRE               
DANGER OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF N TX. TUES (DUE TO LOW RH(S) AGAIN AND               
GOOD MIXING OF NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER                 
POSSIBLE RED FLAG DAY. BUT FOR NOW...THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ONLY FOR              
MONDAY AFTN/EVE FOR THE WRN N TX(SEE ADVISORY LINE BELOW FOR                    
DETAILS).                                                                       
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO INVESTIGATE ANY UPGRADING FOR MONDAY TO A                 
WARNING AND ANY EXTENSION OF THE FIRE WX WATCH INTO TUES (POST-                 
FRONTAL).                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
545 AM CST                                                                      
ALL AIRPORTS NOW IN NORTH FLOW. WINDS BEHIND WEAK FRONT WILL                    
GRADUALLY SLACKEN AND VEER THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING S/SE THIS                  
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR...BUT COLD AIR STRATUS IN               
OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY CLIP METRO TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING.                   
SYNOPTIC MODELS NOT IMPRESSED WITH STRATUS. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON            
CURRENT EVOLUTION...PROJECTING CLOUD BANK TO SLOWLY LIFT AND                    
THIN...PASSING EAST OF THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDDAY. 25                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
342 AM CST                                                                      
SHORT TERM/THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                  
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SWD ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY            
THIS A.M AND SHOULD WASH OUT OVER SRN COUNTIES TODAY...AS PRESSURE              
FALLS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OCCUR RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING TO               
THE NW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE WRN CONUS.               
SOME STRATUS NOTED ON FOG IR OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND MODELS SHOW              
THAT THIS MAY ENCOMPASS AREAS N OF I-20 A GOOD PART OF THE                      
DAY...THUS KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS VALUES OVER THIS REGION...THEN            
WARMER S OF I-20...AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
OTHERWISE...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR SYSTEM/COLD FRONT              
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH FRONT ARRIVING INTO NW PARTS OF N TX BY              
MON EVENING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL VERY WARM COMPARED TO TODAY...DUE TO             
PRE-FRONTAL VEERING OF THE WIND AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. SOME                 
VALUES IN THE 80S EXPECTED W OF I-35 CORRIDOR...70 ELSEWHERE. MODELS            
INDICATE A SLIVER OF PWAT NEAR 1 INCH WILL EXIST OVER FAR ERN                   
COUNTIES WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THUS HAVE SOME LOW                 
CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF N TX LATE MON AFTN/MON             
EVE...LINGERING OVER FAR SE COUNTIES INTO MON A.M. NOTHING                      
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL OR WITH ANY STORMS.                          
OTHERWISE...WINDY AND COLDER LATER MON NIGHT INTO EARLY                         
TUESDAY...WITH FIRE DANGER LIKELY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.                        
LONG TERM/TUES EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/...                                 
DRY FCST EXPECTED MID WEEK WITH A CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS SFC             
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY           
WILL ONLY CREEP INTO THE 50S AND FEEL COLDER THAN THAT DUE TO THE               
GUSTY N/NW WINDS.                                                               
S/W RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS N TX              
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LONG-WAVE PATTERN TRANSFORMS INTO             
A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME...THUS A WARM UP BACK INTO 60S/70S EXPECTED                 
THURS/FRI. WE LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS IN THE LONG TERM PD            
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH/AND MORE                  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE SCENARIO WITH A BRIEF SHOT FOR SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE DRYING OUT SAT NIGHT/SUN...THEN MAYBE                
ANOTHER SHOT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE DEFINITELY DIVERGENT WITH              
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS FAR OUT...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS                  
PRETTY LOW ON STORM SYSTEM EVOLUTION. 05                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  51  79  42  58 /   0   0   5   5   0                  
WACO, TX              71  52  79  44  60 /   0   0   5  10   5                  
PARIS, TX             57  45  74  39  53 /   5   5  20  10   0                  
DENTON, TX            62  48  77  39  56 /   0   0   5   5   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          61  47  76  40  55 /   0   0  10   5   0                  
DALLAS, TX            66  53  77  42  57 /   0   0   5   5   0                  
TERRELL, TX           65  48  74  42  56 /   0   0  10  20   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         69  48  78  45  59 /   0   0  10  30   5                  
TEMPLE, TX            74  49  80  45  61 /   0   0   5  10   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING                   
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                                                        
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
621 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
GUSTY SOUTH...THEN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RH(S) BELOW 30%                 
MONDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY HIGH GRASS FIRE               
DANGER OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF N TX. TUES (DUE TO LOW RH(S) AGAIN AND               
GOOD MIXING OF NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER                 
POSSIBLE RED FLAG DAY. BUT FOR NOW...THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ONLY FOR              
MONDAY AFTN/EVE FOR THE WRN N TX(SEE ADVISORY LINE BELOW FOR DETAILS).          
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO INVESTIGATE ANY UPGRADING FOR MONDAY TO A                 
WARNING AND ANY EXTENSION OF THE FIRE WX WATCH INTO TUES (POST-                 
FRONTAL).                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
545 AM CST                                                                      
ALL AIRPORTS NOW IN NORTH FLOW. WINDS BEHIND WEAK FRONT WILL                    
GRADUALLY SLACKEN AND VEER THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING S/SE THIS                  
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR...BUT COLD AIR STRATUS IN               
OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY CLIP METRO TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING.                   
SYNOPTIC MODELS NOT IMPRESSED WITH STRATUS. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON            
CURRENT EVOLUTION...PROJECTING CLOUD BANK TO SLOWLY LIFT AND THIN...            
PASSING EAST OF THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDDAY. 25                                 
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
342 AM CST                                                                      
SHORT TERM/THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                  
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SWD ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY            
THIS A.M AND SHOULD WASH OUT OVER SRN COUNTIES TODAY...AS PRESSURE              
FALLS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OCCUR RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING TO               
THE NW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE WRN CONUS.               
SOME STRATUS NOTED ON FOG IR OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND MODELS SHOW              
THAT THIS MAY ENCOMPASS AREAS N OF I-20 A GOOD PART OF THE                      
DAY...THUS KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS VALUES OVER THIS REGION...THEN            
WARMER S OF I-20...AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
OTHERWISE...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR SYSTEM/COLD FRONT              
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH FRONT ARRIVING INTO NW PARTS OF N TX BY              
MON EVENING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL VERY WARM COMPARED TO TODAY...DUE TO             
PRE-FRONTAL VEERING OF THE WIND AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. SOME                 
VALUES IN THE 80S EXPECTED W OF I-35 CORRIDOR...70 ELSEWHERE. MODELS            
INDICATE A SLIVER OF PWAT NEAR 1 INCH WILL EXIST OVER FAR ERN                   
COUNTIES WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THUS HAVE SOME LOW                 
CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF N TX LATE MON AFTN/MON             
EVE...LINGERING OVER FAR SE COUNTIES INTO MON A.M. NOTHING                      
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL OR WITH ANY STORMS.                          
OTHERWISE...WINDY AND COLDER LATER MON NIGHT INTO EARLY                         
TUESDAY...WITH FIRE DANGER LIKELY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.                        
LONG TERM/TUES EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/...                                 
DRY FCST EXPECTED MID WEEK WITH A CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS SFC             
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY           
WILL ONLY CREEP INTO THE 50S AND FEEL COLDER THAN THAT DUE TO THE               
GUSTY N/NW WINDS.                                                               
S/W RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS N TX              
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LONG-WAVE PATTERN TRANSFORMS INTO             
A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME...THUS A WARM UP BACK INTO 60S/70S EXPECTED                 
THURS/FRI. WE LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS IN THE LONG TERM PD            
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH/AND MORE                  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE SCENARIO WITH A BRIEF SHOT FOR SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE DRYING OUT SAT NIGHT/SUN...THEN MAYBE                
ANOTHER SHOT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE DEFINITELY DIVERGENT WITH              
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS FAR OUT...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS                  
PRETTY LOW ON STORM SYSTEM EVOLUTION. 05                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  51  79  42  58 /   0   0   5   5   0                  
WACO, TX              71  52  79  44  60 /   0   0   5  10   5                  
PARIS, TX             57  45  74  39  53 /   5   5  20  10   0                  
DENTON, TX            62  48  77  39  56 /   0   0   5   5   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          61  47  76  40  55 /   0   0  10   5   0                  
DALLAS, TX            66  53  77  42  57 /   0   0   5   5   0                  
TERRELL, TX           65  48  74  42  56 /   0   0  10  20   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         69  48  78  45  59 /   0   0  10  30   5                  
TEMPLE, TX            74  49  80  45  61 /   0   0   5  10   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING                   
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                                                        
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
545 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
545 AM CST                                                                      
ALL AIRPORTS NOW IN NORTH FLOW. WINDS BEHIND WEAK FRONT WILL                    
GRADUALLY SLACKEN AND VEER THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING S/SE THIS                  
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR...BUT COLD AIR STRATUS IN               
OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY CLIP METRO TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING.                   
SYNOPTIC MODELS NOT IMPRESSED WITH STRATUS. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON            
CURRENT EVOLUTION...PROJECTING CLOUD BANK TO SLOWLY LIFT AND THIN...            
PASSING EAST OF THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDDAY. 25                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
342 AM CST                                                                      
SHORT TERM/THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                  
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SWD ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY            
THIS A.M AND SHOULD WASH OUT OVER SRN COUNTIES TODAY...AS PRESSURE              
FALLS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OCCUR RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING TO               
THE NW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE WRN CONUS.               
SOME STRATUS NOTED ON FOG IR OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND MODELS SHOW              
THAT THIS MAY ENCOMPASS AREAS N OF I-20 A GOOD PART OF THE                      
DAY...THUS KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS VALUES OVER THIS REGION...THEN            
WARMER S OF I-20...AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
OTHERWISE...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR SYSTEM/COLD FRONT              
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH FRONT ARRIVING INTO NW PARTS OF N TX BY              
MON EVENING. TEMPS MONDAY WILL VERY WARM COMPARED TO TODAY...DUE TO             
PRE-FRONTAL VEERING OF THE WIND AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. SOME                 
VALUES IN THE 80S EXPECTED W OF I-35 CORRIDOR...70 ELSEWHERE. MODELS            
INDICATE A SLIVER OF PWAT NEAR 1 INCH WILL EXIST OVER FAR ERN                   
COUNTIES WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THUS HAVE SOME LOW                 
CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF N TX LATE MON AFTN/MON             
EVE...LINGERING OVER FAR SE COUNTIES INTO MON A.M. NOTHING                      
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL OR WITH ANY STORMS.                          
OTHERWISE...WINDY AND COLDER LATER MON NIGHT INTO EARLY                         
TUESDAY...WITH FIRE DANGER LIKELY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.                        
.LONG TERM/TUES EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/...                                
DRY FCST EXPECTED MID WEEK WITH A CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS SFC             
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY           
WILL ONLY CREEP INTO THE 50S AND FEEL COLDER THAN THAT DUE TO THE               
GUSTY N/NW WINDS.                                                               
S/W RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS N TX              
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LONG-WAVE PATTERN TRANSFORMS INTO             
A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME...THUS A WARM UP BACK INTO 60S/70S EXPECTED                 
THURS/FRI. WE LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS IN THE LONG TERM PD            
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH/AND MORE                  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE SCENARIO WITH A BRIEF SHOT FOR SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE DRYING OUT SAT NIGHT/SUN...THEN MAYBE                
ANOTHER SHOT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE DEFINITELY DIVERGENT WITH              
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS FAR OUT...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS                  
PRETTY LOW ON STORM SYSTEM EVOLUTION. 05                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  51  79  42  58 /   0   0   5   5   0                  
WACO, TX              71  52  79  44  60 /   0   0   5  10   5                  
PARIS, TX             57  45  74  39  53 /   5   5  20  10   0                  
DENTON, TX            62  48  77  39  56 /   0   0   5   5   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          61  47  76  40  55 /   0   0  10   5   0                  
DALLAS, TX            66  53  77  42  57 /   0   0   5   5   0                  
TERRELL, TX           65  48  74  42  56 /   0   0  10  20   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         69  48  78  45  59 /   0   0  10  30   5                  
TEMPLE, TX            74  49  80  45  61 /   0   0   5  10   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/25/85                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
337 AM PST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN                 
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO TODAY...BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL               
FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND                   
NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD INTO              
THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE                     
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED                
WEATHER WEDNESDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TONIGHT...TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION           
EVIDENT IN REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING. FIRST AREA IS LOCATED ACROSS            
PARTS OF EC/SE WA AND THE NEIGHBORING CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE WHERE                
FAIRLY WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA HAS SUSTAINED A                  
BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ALONG AND              
SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS               
THE PALOUSE AND INTO AREAS AROUND ST MARIES. SNOW ACCUMULATION                  
LEVELS HERE APPEAR TO BE NEAR 4000 FT MSL BASED ON AVAILABLE                    
SENSOR DATA...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID/UPR 30S.                    
THE SECOND AREA...WHICH WILL BE THE MORE IMPORTANT ONE TO EVOLVE                
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING....WAS BEGINNING TO EXPAND                 
OVER NERN WA AND NORTH ID. THIS PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING IN REGION OF              
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A COMPACT/STRENGTHENING                    
VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BC/WA               
BORDER. LATEST GFS/NAM/RUC INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE REASONABLY                  
WELL...AT LEAST ITS PLACEMENT WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCE ON                     
STRENGTH.                                                                       
AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS/SHARPENS...IT WILL FORCE THE                       
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX TO ACCELERATE SEWD TRACKING ACROSS EC WA                
AROUND MID-MORNING...THE CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY BEFORE               
EXITING OUR AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS VORT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY             
A COMPACT BUT IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE               
-30C TO -32C RANGE. AS THIS COLDER AIR ALOFT SLIDES SEWD ALONG AND              
JUST WEST OF THE ID/MT BORDER IT WILL NOT ONLY SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE           
RATES CONSIDERABLY BUT IT WILL ALSO FORCE SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD.                 
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...WOULD NOT BE                 
SURPRISED TO SEE BURSTS OF SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS            
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS NEAR AND ABOVE             
3000 FEET. MEANWHILE...FIRST AREA OF PRECIP SHOWING A SHARP BACK                
EDGE NOW AND MODELS SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM            
WEST TO EAST WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE FROM                
ABOUT DAYBREAK ON. FOR TONIGHT...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST            
BUT IT WILL BE A DIRTY ONE WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE              
LOWER LEVELS. NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING ACROSS             
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND IF WE DO SEE CLEARING LATE                     
TODAY/EARLY EVENING...STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY TO MAKE A QUICK RETURN.            
/KJ                                                                             
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ON TUESDAY A MID LEVEL RIDGE                  
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS            
AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS                 
FORMATION IN THE NORTHEAST VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY NIGHT            
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT                     
COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP               
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.               
ALONG WITH FRONTAL LIFT THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM             
A JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE REGION. NOT A LOT OF QPF WITH THIS                   
SYSTEM. THE CASCADE CREST WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT              
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OTHER MOUNTAIN ZONES.                                         
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE                   
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AFTER A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK             
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION            
SATURDAY. AFTER A BREAK ON SUNDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE             
REGION ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE               
SEASONAL NORMALS. /KELCH                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UNSETTLED WX PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH                
IDAHO TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD                
FROM JUST WEST OF CYCG AT 12Z TO NEAR KGEG AT 18Z AND TO GRANGEVILLE            
AREA BY 00Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES              
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID THROUGH AT LEAST                         
18Z...INCLUDING THE SPOKANE AND COEUR D`ALENE AREA TERMINALS. THE               
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND                
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS AND FOG OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON              
AND NORTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS                
AFTER 06Z. /KJ                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        41  29  45  30  46  31 /  50   0   0  10  40  20                 
COEUR D`ALENE  42  29  44  29  45  32 /  50   0   0  10  50  20                 
PULLMAN        44  33  48  33  48  33 /  60   0   0   0  30  10                 
LEWISTON       49  36  53  36  54  37 /  50   0   0   0  20  10                 
COLVILLE       43  26  46  28  45  28 /  40   0  10  20  50  20                 
SANDPOINT      41  28  44  27  45  29 /  60   0  10  10  60  20                 
KELLOGG        40  30  45  32  44  31 /  70  10  10  10  50  30                 
MOSES LAKE     45  31  48  30  53  29 /  10   0   0  10  30  10                 
WENATCHEE      47  32  49  33  51  32 /  10   0  10  10  40  10                 
OMAK           42  25  44  26  47  23 /  20   0  10  30  40  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR NORTHERN                  
     PANHANDLE.                                                                 
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR EAST SLOPES               
     NORTHERN CASCADES...NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...OKANOGAN                         
     HIGHLANDS...OKANOGAN VALLEY...SPOKANE AREA...WENATCHEE AREA.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
855 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...LATEST RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED                  
SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SNOW ADVISORY AREAS IN              
SOUTHERN MOST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON LATEST RUC                 
AND NAM/WRF...APPEARS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SIGNAL SHOULD EXIT                  
AFOREMENTIONED AREA BY 04Z THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD END BULK OF              
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. AS A RESULT...WE ARE PLANNING TO CANCEL                   
SNOW ADVISORY BY 04Z THIS EVENING.                                              
ZONE UPDATES AND ACCOMPANYING UPDATES TO GRAPHICS...WEB                         
STORIES...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ETC. WILL BE FORTHCOMING                  
BETWEEN 03Z-04Z THIS EVENING.                                                   
THOMPSON                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY                                                   
ONGOING WINTER EVENT GRAZING OUR SOUTH TODAY/TONIGHT THE MAIN                   
CONCERN IN THE FORECAST. SECONDARY CONCERN IS STRONG SHORTWAVE/LOW              
PRESSURE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT.                               
BEEN A TOUGH CALL TODAY ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS AS ARX FORECAST AREA              
HAS BEEN VERY PRECIPITOUSLY HANGING ON NRN FRINGE OF SOME PRETTY                
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER DMX/DVN FORECAST AREA. HAS NOT                         
PRECIPITATED AT ALL NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSAGE TO PRAIRIE DU                    
CHIEN...AND PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY BEEN RELEGATED TO THE                     
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR BOTTOM TIER OF COUNTIES...OR ALONG A LINE                  
FROM CHARLES CITY TO LANCASTER. LAPS SOUNDINGS AND RUC SOUNDINGS                
THROUGH THE DAY CONFIRM A STUBBORN WARM LAYER IN OUR FAR SOUTH TO               
THE POINT WHERE BULK OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS FALLEN...HAS BEEN                
PL/FZRA...WITH SOME SNOW...AND EVEN RAIN MIXING IN AS BOUNDARY                  
LAYER TEMPERATURES ALSO ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 31-34 DEGREE RANGE.              
SINCE NOON...HAVE SEEN A NICE FRONTOGENESIS BAND SHIFT NORTH AND                
STALL ON OUR FAR SRN BORDER WITH SNOW BECOMING HEAVIER VIA SPOTTER              
REPORTS WITH LARGER FLAKES...BUT ROADS FINE GIVEN WARM BOUNDARY                 
LAYER. LARGER SCALE RADAR LOOPS...HOWEVER...INDICATE /AND THIS                  
CONFIRMED IN RUC 600MB FGEN FIELDS/ THAT THIS BAND OF HEAVIER ECHO              
IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST NOW AS MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SWRN IA                 
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HENCE...OUR IDEA IS TO                    
REMOVE THE ADVISORY COMPLETELY WHERE LITTLE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET                 
FELL...AND ONLY MARGINAL ICY PATCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WE WILL                
TRANSITION WINTER STORM WARNING TO A SNOW ADVISORY FOR A 4 TO 6                 
HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW RATE OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR SOUTHERN               
THREE COUNTIES THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH TOTAL                   
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THERE. LATEST ADVISORY LAYOUT                    
ATTACHED IN CODING AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRODUCT.                               
REGARDING THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME...EXPECT FAIRLY                 
QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLURRIES IN COLD               
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS AND BRISK WINDS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT                
WILL ALSO SEE SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW               
NORMAL AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. 25.12Z           
GFS HINTING AT WEAK NWLY FLOW WAVE ON WEDNESDAY BUT LITTLE SUPPORT              
ELSEWHERE FOR THIS FEATURE...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED MORE               
FOR CLOUD/SUN PERSPECTIVE AND NOT PRECIPITATION.                                
STRONG WAVE THURSDAYHAS GOOD CONSISTENCY/AGREEMENT OUTSIDE THE                  
25.12Z NAM-WRF WHICH IS DECIDEDLY SLOW. STRONG Q/G FORCING AND WARM             
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                     
INCREASED POPS MORE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN BRUNT OF THE FORCING MOVES              
THROUGH. MAY VERY WELL SEE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS                  
SYSTEM...1-3 INCHES AS A START BUT WITH UPSIDE IF SYSTEM DIGS FAR               
ENOUGH SOUTH AND CAN GET IN SOME DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS. MAY VERY            
WELL LEAD TO MORE ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT JURY STILL OUT ON           
THAT.                                                                           
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                               
NOT MUCH TIME SPENT ON THIS GIVEN CURRENT WINTER STORM. SAW LITTLE              
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM HPC THINKING ON                                     
WEATHER/TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE NEARING BACK TO NORMAL AS                  
RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGRESSIVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.                
ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY               
WITH NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW. THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS FOR A              
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH                
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.                                                
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                                                  
NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA             
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO            
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA. WITH              
THE LOW TRACKING THAT FAR SOUTH...-SN NO LONGER EXPECTED AT                     
KRST/KLSE SITES. THE INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND SOME DRIER BOUNDARY             
LAYER AIR WILL ALLOW VSBYS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY IMPROVE THRU THE                  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LESS CERTAIN IS DECREASE OF                  
IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECKS OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT/TUE. MODEL                      
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE PLENTY MOISTURE IN SFC-850MB LAYER            
TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THRU TUE. HOWEVER...HOLES/CLEAR AREAS IN THE            
LOW CLOUD DECKS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI WITH MORE LOW            
CLOUD CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST MN. GENERALLY CARRIED BKN MVFR CLOUD              
DECKS FOR LATER  TONIGHT/TUE FOR NOW. LATER CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO               
SCATTER THESE CLOUDS OUT IF THE DECREASING TREND OVER NORTHWEST MN              
CONTINUES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ061.                       
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ029-IAZ030.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RRS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
223 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY                                                  
ONGOING WINTER EVENT GRAZING OUR SOUTH TODAY/TONIGHT THE MAIN                   
CONCERN IN THE FORECAST. SECONDARY CONCERN IS STRONG SHORTWAVE/LOW              
PRESSURE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT.                               
BEEN A TOUGH CALL TODAY ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS AS ARX FORECAST AREA              
HAS BEEN VERY PRECIPITOUSLY HANGING ON NRN FRINGE OF SOME PRETTY                
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER DMX/DVN FORECAST AREA. HAS NOT                         
PRECIPITATED AT ALL NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSAGE TO PRAIRIE DU                    
CHIEN...AND PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY BEEN RELEGATED TO THE                     
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR BOTTOM TIER OF COUNTIES...OR ALONG A LINE                  
FROM CHARLES CITY TO LANCASTER. LAPS SOUNDINGS AND RUC SOUNDINGS                
THROUGH THE DAY CONFIRM A STUBBORN WARM LAYER IN OUR FAR SOUTH TO               
THE POINT WHERE BULK OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS FALLEN...HAS BEEN                
PL/FZRA...WITH SOME SNOW...AND EVEN RAIN MIXING IN AS BOUNDARY                  
LAYER TEMPERATURES ALSO ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 31-34 DEGREE RANGE.              
SINCE NOON...HAVE SEEN A NICE FRONTOGENESIS BAND SHIFT NORTH AND                
STALL ON OUR FAR SRN BORDER WITH SNOW BECOMING HEAVIER VIA SPOTTER              
REPORTS WITH LARGER FLAKES...BUT ROADS FINE GIVEN WARM BOUNDARY                 
LAYER. LARGER SCALE RADAR LOOPS...HOWEVER...INDICATE /AND THIS                  
CONFIRMED IN RUC 600MB FGEN FIELDS/ THAT THIS BAND OF HEAVIER ECHO              
IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST NOW AS MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SWRN IA                 
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HENCE...OUR IDEA IS TO                    
REMOVE THE ADVISORY COMPLETELY WHERE LITTLE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET                 
FELL...AND ONLY MARGINAL ICY PATCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WE WILL                
TRANSITION WINTER STORM WARNING TO A SNOW ADVISORY FOR A 4 TO 6                 
HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW RATE OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR SOUTHERN               
THREE COUNTIES THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH TOTAL                   
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THERE. LATEST ADVISORY LAYOUT                    
ATTACHED IN CODING AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRODUCT.                               
REGARDING THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME...EXPECT FAIRLY                 
QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLURRIES IN COLD               
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS AND BRISK WINDS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...BUT                
WILL ALSO SEE SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW               
NORMAL AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. 25.12Z           
GFS HINTING AT WEAK NWLY FLOW WAVE ON WEDNESDAY BUT LITTLE SUPPORT              
ELSEWHERE FOR THIS FEATURE...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED MORE               
FOR CLOUD/SUN PERSPECTIVE AND NOT PRECIPITATION.                                
STRONG WAVE THURSDAYHAS GOOD CONSISTENCY/AGREEMENT OUTSIDE THE                  
25.12Z NAM-WRF WHICH IS DECIDEDLY SLOW. STRONG Q/G FORCING AND WARM             
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                     
INCREASED POPS MORE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN BRUNT OF THE FORCING MOVES              
THROUGH. MAY VERY WELL SEE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS                  
SYSTEM...1-3 INCHES AS A START BUT WITH UPSIDE IF SYSTEM DIGS FAR               
ENOUGH SOUTH AND CAN GET IN SOME DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS. MAY VERY            
WELL LEAD TO MORE ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT JURY STILL OUT ON           
THAT.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
NOT MUCH TIME SPENT ON THIS GIVEN CURRENT WINTER STORM. SAW LITTLE              
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM HPC THINKING ON                                     
WEATHER/TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE NEARING BACK TO NORMAL AS                  
RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGRESSIVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.                
ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY               
WITH NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW. THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS FOR A              
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH                
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                                                 
NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA             
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO            
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA. WITH              
THE LOW TRACKING THAT FAR SOUTH...-SN NO LONGER EXPECTED AT                     
KRST/KLSE SITES. THE INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND SOME DRIER BOUNDARY             
LAYER AIR WILL ALLOW VSBYS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY IMPROVE THRU THE                  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LESS CERTAIN IS DECREASE OF                  
IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECKS OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT/TUE. MODEL                      
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE PLENTY MOISTURE IN SFC-850MB LAYER            
TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THRU TUE. HOWEVER...HOLES/CLEAR AREAS IN THE            
LOW CLOUD DECKS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI WITH MORE LOW            
CLOUD CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST MN. GENERALLY CARRIED BKN MVFR CLOUD              
DECKS FOR LATER  TONIGHT/TUE FOR NOW. LATER CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO               
SCATTER THESE CLOUDS OUT IF THE DECREASING TREND OVER NORTHWEST MN              
CONTINUES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ061.                       
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ029-IAZ030.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RRS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1155 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                     
.UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AS              
SFC LOW SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO WESTERN                  
KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS. AREA OF CLEARING PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS ERN SD/WRN MN            
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT. ALSO               
SEEING TEMPS FALL FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN CLEARING AREA...SO HAVE               
LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CWA. ALSO WITH                 
SYSTEM SLIDING EASTWARD...AND PRECIP TAPERING OFF EXPECT MUCH OF THE            
PRECIP TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT                 
LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT NEAR OTTUMWA/BLOOMFIELD AREAS. HAVE                     
MINIMIZED AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO                        
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WHERE SNOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.             
BLOWING SNOW THREAT SEEMS TO BE MINIMIZED DUE TO THE SNOW BEING                 
HEAVY AND WET.                                                                  
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER IS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.                 
CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM NEAR                        
ATLANTIC...THROUGH AMES...TO WATERLOO. OVERALL...NORTHWARD PUSH OF              
WARMER AIR HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND THIS HAS                 
RESULTED IN A LATER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MANY ROADS NORTH AND EAST              
OF THE DES MOINES AREA ON PARTLY TO MOSTLY SNOW COVERED...WITH                  
MAINLY WET ROADS SOUTH AND EAST OF DES MOINES. AS COLDER AIR FROM               
THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT...PRECIPITATION            
WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RUC FN VECTOR            
CONVERGENCE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER HAS BEEN MODELING THE BAND WELL              
TODAY...AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS               
EVENING. A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF DES MOINES HAVE RECEIVED             
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR...BUT THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING                      
RELATIVELY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW NEAR            
AND SE OF DES MOINES IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIMITED BY THE               
LATE TRANSITION...AND SHOULD BE DIMINISHED TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR                
FLURRIES BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL                
AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SO              
HAVE OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER            
ADVISORY. OTHER CHANGES WERE TO TRIM HEADLINES OVER NW/W                        
COUNTIES...AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE              
COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...RATHER THAN               
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS                 
EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS             
AROUND 35 MPH OR SO. THE WINDS SHOULD LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE HIGHER            
INTENSITY SNOW. ALSO...DUE TO THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW...AND                
VISIBILITY TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...DON/T BELIEVE BLOWING SNOW WILL              
BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF             
PATCHY BLSN...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT SHOULD BE SHALLOW DRIFTING OVER               
ROADS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER TUESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT            
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO WEDNESDAY.                                      
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE THE                
HIGHEST IMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF IOWA WITH LIGHT TO                    
POSSIBLY MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO             
ZONAL FLOW WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE              
OF PRECIP WILL COME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.                                         
.AVIATION...26/06Z                                                              
SNOW EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF KOTM WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH            
LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.              
KFOD...KMCW...AND KALO ALL EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MVFR TO VFR                    
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO               
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST...AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.                 
NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST                    
PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY              
TUESDAY. WEAK WAVE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...CURRENTLY                   
LOOKING QUITE DRY...AND MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES. WILL HAVE TO               
MONITOR AS MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THIS               
WAVE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...KINNEY/MOYER                                                           
UPDATE/AVIATION...ALBRECHT                                                      
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1235 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO GO WITH PCLDY SKIES IN THE EVNG ACRS THE KEWEENAW AS DRY             
AIR OVER MN/SRN ONTARIO AS SHOWN ON 00Z INL RAOB/RECENT TAMDAR SDNG             
FM YQT HAS INVADED NRN LK SUP AND CAUSED SC TO BREAK UP THERE WITH              
UNFVRBL NLY FLOW AND ACYC FLOW AT H85. OTRW...CONTINUED INFLUX OF               
COLDER AIR ACRS LK SUP (00Z H85 TEMP -4C AT GRB...-13C AT INL...THEN            
-19C AT YPL) WL CAUSE LES TO DVLP OVERNGT. BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AS            
WELL AS ICE COVER OVER WRN LK SUP AND BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND MQT WL              
TEND TO LIMIT AMTS. MORE MSTR NOTED NW OF INL/YPL. ARRIVAL OF THIS              
MSTR ON TUE MRNG IN CONCERT WITH DPVA/HGT FALLS ACCOMPANYING DIGGING            
SHRTWV NR LK WINNIPEG MAY RESULT IN A BIT MORE LES TMRW.                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AS NOTED ON WATER                 
VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. MEAN RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH             
A BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN 2/3RD OF CANADA AND UPR GREAT LAKES AND NE            
U.S. SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS                     
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUE AND WILL              
NOT A SYNOPTIC IMPACT OUR UPR MI WX EXCEPT TO TIGHTEN NRLY GRADIENT             
OVER THE REGION ON BACK SIDE OF LOW. COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATE                  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MANITOBA WILL            
HELP GENERATE LES FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NRLY                 
FLOW.                                                                           
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR LES BANDS TO             
DEVELOP AS COLDEST AIR DOESN`T MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE                  
TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SRN MANITOBA.                    
INITIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING 850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO              
BE -10C TO -11C WHICH MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LES. GIVEN             
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS FOR EVEN ICE IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE DECIDED TO              
THROW IN SOME PATCHY FZDZ FOR WEST AND NCNTRL COUNTIES IN NRLY                  
UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH APPROACH OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT...MODELS             
THEN SHOW 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -16 TO -18 LATE TONIGHT WHICH                
SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME LES.                                                  
SO GIVEN THE SLOWER ADVANCE OF COLD AIR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY            
TRIMMED BACK ACCUMS TONIGHT TO INCH OR LESS OVER THE FAVORED NRLY               
UPSLOPE AREAS IN WEST AND NCNTRL ZONES...BUT KEPT IN LIKELY POPS FOR            
THE OVERNIGHT IN THESE COUNTIES.                                                
BY TUE...THE COLDEST AIR IS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES WITH 850 MB                
TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -19C. HOWEVER...SFC-850 MB FLOW IS ALSO                
BECOMING SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC BY THIS TIME WITH DRY AIR AT                      
LOW-LEVELS ADVECTING IN FROM ONTARIO. THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH                 
INCREASED SUN ANGLE/DIURNAL HEATING THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAY DISRUPT             
LES BANDS A BIT DURING THE DAY. FOR THESE REASONS ALSO TRIMMED BACK             
ACCUMS TO AROUND AN INCH FOR WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES IN UPSLOPE NRLY             
FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (AROUND 2 INCHES)              
BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING WHERE MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
THURSDAY.                                                                       
SEVERAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A DOMINANT BAND                   
FORMING NEAR MUNISING TUESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY             
MORNING. REGIONAL GEM...NAM...AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF-ARW ALL SHOW THIS            
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH IT ISN`T PRESENT IN THE GFS. WILL GO AHEAD AND               
INCREASE QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS GENERAL AREA...AND IF THIS FEATURE            
CONTINUES TO APPEAR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...A HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED             
FOR ALGER COUNTY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR                          
SHORELINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT LES CONTINUING FROM            
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL                  
REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT...ALTHOUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE INVERSION LIES                
WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO            
AN END DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO               
THE REGION AND WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL              
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN                  
SHORELINE WITH S-SW WINDS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS              
MATCHING AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
CONFIDENCE THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD DECREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS                 
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A              
LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE             
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR               
SATURDAY. ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE             
PERIOD...AND IS THEN BLENDED WITH 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z                
CANADIAN GLOBAL SOLUTIONS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN               
PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. RELIED HEAVILY ON               
HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WHEN MODELS WERE DIVERGENT. MAIN                  
CHANGE THAT USING HPC GUIDANCE CAUSED WAS AN ADDITION OF CHANCE POPS            
TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE LOW ENTERING THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR IN NRN MN/SRN ONTARIO AS SHOWN ON 00Z INL RAOB/             
RECENT TAMDAR SDNG FM YQT AS WELL AS ACYC FLOW AT H85 HAS CAUSED VFR            
CONDITIONS AT CMX INTO THE OVERNGT. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...LONGER            
FETCH/FVRBL NLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PERSISTED THE SC MVFR CIG AT SAW.              
WITH WEAKENING DRY ADVECTION LATER TNGT...SUSPECT MVFR CIG WL DVLP              
AT CMX WHILE STEADIER SHSN THAT RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR RANGE COMMENCE            
AT SAW. BEST CHC FOR MORE FREQUENT SHSN AND LOWER VSBY... MVFR AT               
CMX/IFR AT SAW...WL BE TUE MRNG INTO THE AFTN WHEN DIGGING SHRTWV               
DRAGS COLDER LLVL AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AND INVRN BASE LIFTS TO 5-6K             
FT. ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AT                  
TIMES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN INCREASING               
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY              
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO 30 KT FROM            
TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO                   
EXPECTED TUE INTO WED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. AS THE LOW MOVES E ON             
WED THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS WINDS QUICKLY DIE DOWN               
BLO 20 KT BY LATE WED. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT BY               
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NRN             
PLAINS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
NONE.                                                                           
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
NONE.                                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST                    
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SHORT TERM...VOSS                                                               
LONG TERM...TAG                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
321 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS FORCING MECHANISMS ARE                  
WEAK... OR NON EXISTENT. SFC PATTERN REFLECTS CWA IN GRADIENT                   
BETWEEN DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY SFC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN                
HIGH PLAINS. AN AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF...WITH A POCKET OF -35C AT              
50H...IS PUSHING INTO THE NWRN CWA THIS MORNING. FLURRIES ARE BEING             
SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MOISTENING COLUMN AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN                    
TEMPORARILY. THIS SCENARIO WILL SPREAD SE TODAY ACROSS CWA WITH NO              
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. BOTH LATEST RUC AND GFS HINT AT A SECONDARY             
SHORTWAVE MIGRATING SOUTH TODAY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH PERHAPS SOME                
ADDITIONAL FLURRIES POSSIBLE.                                                   
STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LES OVER ERN WI ZONES HOWEVER                     
SUMMATION OF LES PARAMETERS INDICATES SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS NOT             
LIKELY. EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AS MID LVL                   
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THERMAL/MOISTURE PROPERTIES OF SYNOPTIC                    
BACKGROUND. HOWEVER...OVERALL FETCH NOT VERY FAVORABLE AS 85H                   
TRAJECTORY MAINTAINS TOO MUCH NW VS NRLY FLOW. THERE MAY BE JUST TOO            
MUCH ICE COVER ON SUPERIOR TO ALLOW ENOUGH MSTR FLUX INTO BL AIR.               
EVEN NORMALLY EXCITABLE HI RES 4KM NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY                   
PRODUCT NOT SUGGESTING ORGANIZED EVENT. BUFKIT PROFILES...BOTH                  
GFS/NAM...RATHER MEAGER WITH PRODUCTION OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE/EQ                 
LEVEL AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN NEAR 4/5K. LES POTENTIAL SHOULD               
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY LESSENS AND            
DEEP LAYER OF DRYING MOVES IN.                                                  
EXTENDED...THUR THROUGH SUNDAY... MEAN MID LVL RIDGE REMAINS OVER               
WRN CONUS WITH  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AMPLIFYING OVER CWA. FIRST ONE               
OCCURS THUR/FRI. MDL CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THIS FAR OUT  WITH                
REGARD TO OVERALL FCST OF SNOWFALL SPREADING EAST THURSDAY. MDL                 
TIMING VARIES FROM FASTEST..ECMWF..TO SLOWER NAM/GFS/CMC...WITH UKM             
IN BETWEEN. BOTH EC/GFS SUGGEST THAT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF MID LVL              
FLOW BY FRIDAY WILL KEEP SYSTEM MOVING EAST... LIMITING SIGNIFICANT             
SNOWFALL. OF COURSE...WITH THIS LACKLUSTER SNOW SEASON AS OF                    
LATE....2 INCHES MIGHT SEEM SIGNIFICANT TO SOME. ANOTHER CHANCE OF              
SNOW SAT/SUN WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE. EC/GFS HAVE SOME TIMING                 
DIFFERENCES BOTH BOTH FOCUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION OVER FAR NRN            
CWA.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...AS WELL AS A                                
SHORTWAVE...WILL LEAD TO MVFR OR LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY. AREAS OF               
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 3            
TO 5 MILES IN SPOTS DURING THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE A BIT                   
HEAVIER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE                               
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KASX...TOWARD KIWD.                               
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  20   4  19   3 /  10  10  10  10                                           
INL  21   0  18  -3 /  10  10  10  20                                           
BRD  28   6  23   7 /  10  10  10  20                                           
HYR  23   3  21  -3 /  10  10  10  10                                           
ASX  24   7  19   3 /  20  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON/MELDE                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
402 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT ENTERING NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. RUC...NAM12            
AND GFS INDICATE QUITE STRONG WINDS SURFACE TO 850 MB LAYER BEHIND              
FRONT. ALSO...PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT ALREADY TIGHTENING. WE             
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR CWFA FOR TODAY INDICATING 20-25 MPH              
INLAND AREAS AND 25-30 MPH NEAR THE COAST. LINGERING CONVECTION                 
NOTED EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF CWFA DUE TO REGION BEING UNDER RR                 
QUAD OF UPPER JET CORE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE MID LEVELS. THIS                     
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF REGION BEFORE SUNRISE. WE WILL               
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THAT PORTION FOR EARLY MORNING                     
PERIOD ONLY (FOR ZFPHGX). PW VALUES DROPPING OVER REGION AS PER                 
GOES SOUNDER LOOP. NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWFA APPROACHING HALF AN INCH           
BUT STILL MOIST SOUTHEAST REGION PROBABLY NEAR AN INCH. STRONG                  
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S LATER TONIGHT              
INLAND AREAS WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FAR                  
NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTH                 
TEXAS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA                       
DECREASING QUITE A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. UPPER              
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS              
DUE TO HIGH SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST CONUS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL              
INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEKDAY WITH SUSTAINED                  
ONSHORE FLOW. WE SHALL SEE A WARM UP THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND              
ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. WE DID CONTINUE TO MENTION               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS END OF WEEK AND CHANCE (30 PERCENT) WEEKEND.                 
VERTICAL PROFILES WOULD INDICATE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING                  
THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST OLD                
MEXICO BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER FLOW OVER TEXAS BECOMING MORE                       
SOUTHWESTERLY. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE               
TO THE EASTERLY PORTION OF CONUS SATURDAY MAKING THE FLOW ACROSS                
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF MORE EASTERLY. GFS INDICATE                
UPPER LOW OVER OLD MEXICO WILL WEAKEN...OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST LATE              
IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A DEVELOPING LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS INDICATED               
...EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS              
SYSTEM WILL USHER A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR REGION MONDAY. 37                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOME SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED GENERALLY FROM THE CONROE-HUNTSVILLE AREA              
AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA. EXPECT THIS              
STUFF TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SOME TIME BEFORE OR RIGHT AROUND                  
SUNRISE. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY UP NORTH)            
WILL SEE A BKN DECK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. ALL              
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE ON OUT SOME TIME LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN                 
TODAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS INLAND AND 20 TO 30 KNOT            
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS. GRADIENT             
RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND AND LATE THIS                  
EVENING ALONG THE COAST. SKC TONIGHT.  42                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 6 PM            
AND FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS                 
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE TODAY`S SEAS INCREASING TO 5 TO 7            
FEET NEARSHORE AND 7 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL              
RELAX TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WE`LL PROBABLY NEED SOME KIND OF                   
CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR               
GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST                  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY                
FLAGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THIS ONSHORE FLOW                   
STRENGTHENS. 42                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WILL DROP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE              
STRONG AND THE GROUND REMAINS DRY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS               
AFTERNOON ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO A 20% TO 25% RANGE.  42              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  32  64  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0             
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  35  63  42  70 /   0   0   0   0   0             
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  44  59  48  67 /  10   0   0   0   0             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...                 
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...                      
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...                       
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...                      
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.                                             
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE                    
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP                
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                       
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND                 
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO                       
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
37/42                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
1141 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND HAS TAKEN                 
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST              
WHERE MENTIONED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS                     
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS                    
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN AS SUNSET APPROACHES.                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF              
SMITHVILLE TO GONZALES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION SEVERE                   
STORMS POSSIBLE FOR FAYETTE AND LAVACA COUNTIES.                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
AT 8 PM CDT...COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH AND                     
EXTENDED ALONG A ROCKDALE TO AUSTIN TO BOERNE TO UVALDE TO EAGLE                
PASS LINE AT 8 PM. SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT                      
NORTHEAST OF TAYLOR. THE RUC HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE               
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER TO WEST, THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE I-35                  
CORRIDOR. ALSO, TEMPERATURES SHOWED LITTLE DROP OFF BEHIND THE                  
FRONT WITH A DROP OFF NOTED BEHIND A SECOND BOUNDARY ALONG A WACO               
TO BRADY TO OZONA TO FORT STOCKTON LINE. WILL SLOW TEMPERATURE AND              
DEWPOINT FALL BASED ON EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS                
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND PROFILES OVER              
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS SHOW 45 MPH IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL                
HOLD OFF FOR NOW, HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE WIND                   
ADVISORIES FOR ALL OR PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.                              
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY LOOKS ON TRACK.               
NOT MUCH RECOVERY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS WILL BE REPLACED WITH DRY                 
NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A STRONG COLD               
FRONT PLOWS THROUGH TEXAS. THE BLUSTERY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH              
00Z TOMORROW. SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SCT CIRRUS                    
CLOUDS.                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WINDY...HOT...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING                 
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST TO                 
NORTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN            
NEAR 20 MPH. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY           
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL            
REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL            
FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH               
HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY`S. CLEAR              
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL              
COOLING LEADING TO TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL                  
COUNTRY...AND NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.                        
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING           
SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD BE            
EVIDENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED             
IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.      
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ENABLE A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH THE          
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.                                      
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.          
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE HAD MORE TIME TO DEEPEN AND A TROUGH               
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME               
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ATTM...LOW-END CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MODELS            
ARE STILL INDICATING A POLAR COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND            
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF            
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS          
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND BRING EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE ENTIRE REGION.            
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE      
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY          
VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR               
THE SPREAD OF FIRE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  66  37  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  49  62  32  65  33 /   0   0   0   0   0         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  73  38  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  69  34  69  38 /   0   0   0   0   0         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:             
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...            
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...              
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...               
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...            
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/06                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
1130 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS                    
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN AS SUNSET APPROACHES.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF              
SMITHVILLE TO GONZALES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION SEVERE                   
STORMS POSSIBLE FOR FAYETTE AND LAVACA COUNTIES.                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
AT 8 PM CDT...COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH AND                     
EXTENDED ALONG A ROCKDALE TO AUSTIN TO BOERNE TO UVALDE TO EAGLE                
PASS LINE AT 8 PM. SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT                      
NORTHEAST OF TAYLOR. THE RUC HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE               
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER TO WEST, THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE I-35                  
CORRIDOR. ALSO, TEMPERATURES SHOWED LITTLE DROP OFF BEHIND THE                  
FRONT WITH A DROP OFF NOTED BEHIND A SECOND BOUNDARY ALONG A WACO               
TO BRADY TO OZONA TO FORT STOCKTON LINE. WILL SLOW TEMPERATURE AND              
DEWPOINT FALL BASED ON EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS                
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND PROFILES OVER              
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS SHOW 45 MPH IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL                
HOLD OFF FOR NOW, HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE WIND                   
ADVISORIES FOR ALL OR PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.                              
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY LOOKS ON TRACK.               
NOT MUCH RECOVERY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS WILL BE REPLACED WITH DRY                 
NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A STRONG COLD               
FRONT PLOWS THROUGH TEXAS. THE BLUSTERY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH              
00Z TOMORROW. SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SCT CIRRUS                    
CLOUDS.                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WINDY...HOT...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING                 
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST TO                 
NORTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN            
NEAR 20 MPH. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY           
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL            
REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL            
FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH               
HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY`S. CLEAR              
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL              
COOLING LEADING TO TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL                  
COUNTRY...AND NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.                        
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING           
SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD BE            
EVIDENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED             
IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.      
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ENABLE A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH THE          
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.                                      
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.          
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE HAD MORE TIME TO DEEPEN AND A TROUGH               
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME               
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ATTM...LOW-END CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MODELS            
ARE STILL INDICATING A POLAR COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND            
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF            
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS          
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND BRING EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE ENTIRE REGION.            
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE      
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY          
VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR               
THE SPREAD OF FIRE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  66  37  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  49  62  32  65  33 /   0   0   0   0   0         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  73  38  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  69  34  69  38 /   0   0   0   0   0         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:             
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...            
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...              
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...               
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...            
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/06                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
850 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                      
...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH                  
WEDNESDAY...                                                                    
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                            
.UPDATE...LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC H5 COMPOSITE SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT            
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN OH/TN VALLEYS. A 40-50 KT WSW LOW               
LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE                 
TROUGH IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN AL TO ERN LA WITH A                 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN GA TO THE              
WRN FL PANHANDLE. A SQUALL LINE IS ORIENTED ALONG THIS SURFACE                  
TROUGH AND IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MID              
60F DEW POINTS SURGING NWD INTO SERN AL/ERN FL PANHANDLE). THIS                 
SQUALL LINE IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD (50-60 KTS)...AND WILL                 
AFFECT OUR WRN ZONES BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z...AND AREAS TO THE EAST                
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE SPC...AND A SVR TSTM              
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWFA UNTIL 20Z.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BUOY 42039 AND                
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO ADVISORY CRITERION LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS               
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE COULD EASILY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS             
AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND                   
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL NOT DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY            
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VIS ARE STILL AFFECTING MOST OF               
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING QUICKLY AT            
DHN OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. THESE IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE                    
SHORT-LIVED...AS THE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS                 
APPROACH THE AREA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR             
GREATER...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THESE                  
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING              
HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY IMPACT ALL OF THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE.               
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...MARIANNA CRESTED A FEW FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...WITH               
THE FLOOD WAVE TRAVELING DOWNSTREAM AND FLOODING ALTHA TODAY AND                
LASTING INTO FRIDAY. BLOXHAM SHOULD BE CRESTING TODAY A FEW FEET                
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HAVANA HAS CRESTED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO                    
EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AREAL                 
FLOODING CONTINUES IN SRN LEON COUNTY DUE TO MUNSON SLOUGH DRAINAGE.            
TODAY`S CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS EWD AT A DECENT CLIP...SO BASIN              
AVERAGE QPF SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE                
RIVERINE FLOODING...SEE THE NWS TALLAHASSEE WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST             
FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FORECASTS PROVIDED THROUGH OUR LOCAL AHPS              
SITE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  71  40  53  24  58 /  80  20  00  00  00                           
PANAMA CITY  70  41  53  35  60 /  90  10  00  00  00                           
DOTHAN       66  34  51  29  59 /  90  10  00  00  00                           
ALBANY       68  35  51  28  57 /  90  10  00  00  00                           
VALDOSTA     72  39  52  28  57 /  80  20  00  00  00                           
CROSS CITY   77  42  54  27  59 /  80  60  00  00  00                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...LAKE WIND ADVY ALL ZONES 15-23Z TODAY.                                     
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                                  
GA...LAKE WIND ADVY ALL ZONES 15-23Z TODAY.                                     
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...                    
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...                   
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...                      
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...                 
     TURNER...WORTH.                                                            
FL...LAKE WIND ADVY ALL ZONES 15-23Z TODAY.                                     
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                  
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...                  
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...              
     TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                             
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TODAY TO 7 PM EST WED ALL LEGS.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAMSKI/GOULD                                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
636 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO GOING GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS...TRENDS AND               
CONSISTENCY. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. -HOWERTON                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONCERN IS MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA.              
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE EITHER CLUELESS OR SERIOUSLY STRUGGLING                  
WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. RUC SORT OF HINTED AT IT AND THE                  
GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL BUFR SOUNDING VALID AT 1500 UTC AT                 
KRSL SORT OF HINTED AT IT AS WELL. MM5 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST                  
HANDLE WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KS               
AT THIS TIME AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA. IT            
SHOWS THE MOISTURE IN NEBRASKA ADVECTING ACROSS NE KS WITH                      
GRAZING SHOT AT KSLN. OPTED TO NOT CUT IT THAT CLOSE AND INCLUDE                
TEMPO GROUP AT KRSL AS WELL GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TREND.                      
OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS                   
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND               
VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. -HOWERTON                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
A DISCERNIBLE 500-MB SHORTWAVE...MOVING S/SE OVER ERN ND @ 12                   
MIDNIGHT WILL RACE S/SE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY...CROSSING THE              
KS/MO BORDER ~12 NOON...THEN THE LWR MS VALLEY ~6PM THIS EVENING.               
THIS FEATURE WILL OPERATE IN TANDEM WITH AN ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE                
MID-UPR RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TO INDUCE A FAST NW               
FLOW REGIME THAT PREVAILS THRU EARLY THU MORNING. AT THAT TIME A 2ND            
500-MB SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE E OVER THE PACIFIC COAST UPR RIDGE TO                
INDUCE DEAMPLIFICATION LATE WED NIGHT. THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE THEN                
SPRINTS SE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...INDUCING SFC-700MB TROFFING                 
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THU MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A WARMING                 
TREND THAT`LL OCCUR WED & THU BEFORE A COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN             
SWEEPS SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.                                           
TODAY:                                                                          
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER MID-MS VALLEY EARLY THIS                   
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ALLOWING              
SKIES TO CLEAR IN GENERAL W-E MANNER OVER THE KICT CWFA.                        
HOWEVER...NLY SFC-850MB FLOW REMAINS QUITE STRONG THRU                          
MID-AFTERNOON...SO BRISK N/NW WINDS TO PERSIST THRU LATE AFTERNOON.             
MOREOVER THE LACKING OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL KEEP PREVENT                 
SIGNIFICANT WARMING...SO HAVE HELD MAXES TO ~40F WITH SE KS ON                  
COOLER SIDE OF FENCE.                                                           
TONIGHT:                                                                        
A VERY WEAK SFC TROF DRIFTS E ACROSS NRN PLAINS TO INDUCE LWR-DECK              
FLOW TO BACK TO A LIGHT WLY COMP. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT                
MINS INTACT WITH LWR 20S ASSIGNED TO ALL AREAS.                                 
WED-THU:                                                                        
WARMING TREND SLATED ALL AREAS FOR REASONS STATED IN "SYNOPSIS"                 
HOWEVER EASED UP ON "DEGREE" OF WARMUP ON THU AS 500-MB SHORTWAVE               
WILL SPREAD CONSIDERABLE CIRROSTRATUS SE ACROSS KS. AS SUCH LOWERED             
MAXES ALL AREAS TO MID/UPR 50S WITH NE CORRIDOR ON COOLER END OF                
THIS THERMAL SPECTRUM.                                                          
THU NIGHT:                                                                      
STRENGTHENING 500-MB SHORTWAVE SURGING E/SE ACROSS FAR NRN PLAINS               
WILL SWEEP A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. AIRMASS DRY...SO             
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO INDUCE NO MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. DUE TO COLD                
FRONT`S LATE ARRIVAL...HAVE RAISED MINS ACROSS SC & SE KS TO 35-40F.            
THIS WEEKEND:                                                                   
FAST ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS FOR MOST OF PERIOD & WITH DEEP SW/WLY FLOW             
OVER THE PLAINS...SAT TO BE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS                  
FLIRTING WITH 70F ALONG WRN CORRIDOR. LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY               
MORNING A STRONGER & DEEPENING POSITIVELY-TILTED UPR-DECK TROF                  
SPRINTS E/SE ACROSS NRN & C PLAINS THAT`LL FORCE FAIRLY POTENT COLD             
FRONT SE ACROSS THE KICT CWFA LATE SAT NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE             
BOUNDARY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO INTRO ~20% -SHRA TO SE KS LATE SAT               
NIGHT. WITH UPR-DECK TROF CONTINUING TO DEEPEN ON SUNDAY...HAVE                 
INTRODUCED EMBEDDED TSRA TO ALL AREAS ON SUN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    41  23  53  31 /   0   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      40  22  53  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          39  22  52  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        39  22  51  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  24  53  31 /   0   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         41  22  53  27 /   0   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      41  23  54  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
SALINA          41  23  51  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       40  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     40  22  53  30 /   0   0   0   0                                
CHANUTE         38  21  51  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
IOLA            37  21  51  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    39  21  52  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
613 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONCERN IS MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA.              
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE EITHER CLUELESS OR SERIOUSLY STRUGGLING                  
WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. RUC SORT OF HINTED AT IT AND THE                  
GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL BUFR SOUNDING VALID AT 1500 UTC AT                 
KRSL SORT OF HINTED AT IT AS WELL. MM5 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST                  
HANDLE WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KS               
AT THIS TIME AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA. IT            
SHOWS THE MOISTURE IN NEBRASKA ADVECTING ACROSS NE KS WITH                      
GRAZING SHOT AT KSLN. OPTED TO NOT CUT IT THAT CLOSE AND INCLUDE                
TEMPO GROUP AT KRSL AS WELL GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TREND.                      
OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS                   
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND               
VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. -HOWERTON                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONCERN IS MVFRR ACROSS WESTERN KS AND MUCH OF               
NEBRASKA. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE EITHER CLUELESS OR SERIOUSLY                   
STRUGGLING WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. RUC SORT OF HINTED AT IT               
AND THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL BUFR SOUNDING AT 1500 UTC AT               
KRSL SORT OF HINTED AT IT AS WELL. MM5 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST                  
HANDLE WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KS               
AT THIS TIME. IT SHOWS THAT THE MOISTURE IN NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY BE             
SHUNTED ACROSS NE KS WITH GRAZING SHOT AT KSLN. OPTED TO NOT CUT IT             
THAT CLOSE AND INCLUDE TEMPORARY GROUP AT KRSL AS WELL GIVEN                    
SATELLITE TREND. OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE               
AREA...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND                   
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. -HOWERTON                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
A DISCERNIBLE 500-MB SHORTWAVE...MOVING S/SE OVER ERN ND @ 12 MIDNIGHT          
WILL RACE S/SE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY...CROSSING THE KS/MO BORDER          
~12 NOON...THEN THE LWR MS VALLEY ~6PM THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL          
OPERATE IN TANDEM WITH AN ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPR RIDGE POSITIONED         
ALONG THE WEST COAST TO INDUCE A FAST NW FLOW REGIME THAT PREVAILS THRU         
EARLY THU MORNING. AT THAT TIME A 2ND 500-MB SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE E OVER         
THE PACIFIC COAST UPR RIDGE TO INDUCE DEAMPLIFICATION LATE WED NIGHT.           
THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE THEN SPRINTS SE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...INDUCING          
SFC-700MB TROFFING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THU MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE        
A WARMING TREND THAT`LL OCCUR WED & THU BEFORE A COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC          
ORIGIN SWEEPS SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.                                    
TODAY:                                                                          
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER MID-MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...        
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR         
IN GENERAL W-E MANNER OVER THE KICT CWFA. HOWEVER...NLY SFC-850MB FLOW          
REMAINS QUITE STRONG THRU MID-AFTERNOON...SO BRISK N/NW WINDS TO PERSIST        
THRU LATE AFTERNOON. MOREOVER THE LACKING OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL         
KEEP PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WARMING...SO HAVE HELD MAXES TO ~40F WITH SE KS        
ON COOLER SIDE OF FENCE.                                                        
TONIGHT:                                                                        
A VERY WEAK SFC TROF DRIFTS E ACROSS NRN PLAINS TO INDUCE LWR-DECK FLOW         
TO BACK TO A LIGHT WLY COMP. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT MINS INTACT         
WITH LWR 20S ASSIGNED TO ALL AREAS.                                             
WED-THU:                                                                        
WARMING TREND SLATED ALL AREAS FOR REASONS STATED IN "SYNOPSIS" HOWEVER         
EASED UP ON "DEGREE" OF WARMUP ON THU AS 500-MB SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD           
CONSIDERABLE CIRROSTRATUS SE ACROSS KS. AS SUCH LOWERED MAXES ALL AREAS         
TO MID/UPR 50S WITH NE CORRIDOR ON COOLER END OF THIS THERMAL SPECTRUM.         
THU NIGHT:                                                                      
STRENGTHENING 500-MB SHORTWAVE SURGING E/SE ACROSS FAR NRN PLAINS WILL          
SWEEP A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. AIRMASS DRY...SO FRONTAL          
PASSAGE TO INDUCE NO MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. DUE TO COLD FRONT`S LATE           
ARRIVAL...HAVE RAISED MINS ACROSS SC & SE KS TO 35-40F.                         
THIS WEEKEND:                                                                   
FAST ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS FOR MOST OF PERIOD & WITH DEEP SW/WLY FLOW OVER        
THE PLAINS...SAT TO BE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS FLIRTING WITH         
70F ALONG WRN CORRIDOR. LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A STRONGER &        
DEEPENING POSITIVELY-TILTED UPR-DECK TROF SPRINTS E/SE ACROSS NRN & C           
PLAINS THAT`LL FORCE FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE KICT CWFA           
LATE SAT NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO            
INTRO ~20% -SHRA TO SE KS LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH UPR-DECK TROF CONTINUING         
TO DEEPEN ON SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED EMBEDDED TSRA TO ALL AREAS ON SUN.        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    41  23  53  31 /   0   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      40  22  53  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          39  22  52  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        39  22  51  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  24  53  31 /   0   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         41  22  53  27 /   0   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      41  23  54  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
SALINA          41  23  51  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       40  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     40  22  53  30 /   0   0   0   0                                
CHANUTE         38  21  51  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
IOLA            37  21  51  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    39  21  52  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
536 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLDER AIR WAS ONCE AGAIN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON GUSTY NORTHWEST            
WINDS FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW AND                
FLURRIES WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING JUST               
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY REGIONAL PROFILERS.                
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING STRATUS TEMPERATURES               
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TODAY. READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S AND               
WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS. FLURRIES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE                 
THROUGH THE MORNING.                                                            
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE                    
SHIFTS EAST INTO MISSOURI. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR RETURN               
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES                
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT MAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL REBOUND                    
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE SOUTHERLY                
WINDS RETURN EARLIER IN THE DAY.                                                
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE                  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN                
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST                 
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE NORTH FROM                  
NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKS              
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD                 
COVER AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SHOWERS. IF                 
THICKER CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS                 
PROGGED.                                                                        
THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OZARKS EARLY FRIDAY AS A                    
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED               
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT ADVANCES INTO FAR SOUTHERN                     
MISSOURI FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS FOLLOWING                 
THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND                 
BACK INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY.                                                  
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT TAKING SHAPE               
TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF                   
SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS               
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SWEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF THE              
AREA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE                 
POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY WEATHER ON MONDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS               
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.                                                
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A VERY DEEP COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD                
AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING.  MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND ASSOCIATED            
SHARP LOCAL RISES IN POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACES BROUGHT LIGHT               
SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS.                                       
A SHARP MID LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST HAS CAUSED A              
LARGE SURGE OF DOWNWARD MOVING PARCELS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS                
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  ULTIMATELY PRESSURE ADVECTION                   
CAUSING STRONG DOWNGLIDE HAS TAKEN OVER VERTICAL MOTIONS...AND                  
CLEARING HAS SPED UP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.              
AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE DISTANCE SPEED ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RUC                
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR              
THROUGH THE JOPLIN AIRPORT BY 8AM AND SPRINGFIELD AT 10AM.  MAV                 
GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO THE STRATUS THROUGH THE INITIAL 6 HOUR                     
FORECAST...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RUC SUGGESTIONS DUE TO ONGOING                   
SATELLITE TRENDS.                                                               
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN WITHIN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE                       
MORNING...HOWEVER THINK THAT VFR VISIBILITIES WILL UNFOLD THROUGH               
THE REST OF THE MORNING.  AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...SPRINGFIELD WAS UP             
TO 6SM AND JOPLIN WAS AT 8SM.                                                   
PERHAPS THE MOST CHALLENGING ELEMENT TO PILOTS AND THE AVIATION                 
COMMUNITY TODAY REGARDS STRONG / GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.  THESE WINDS            
WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AT OR AROUND 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30               
KNOTS.  BY THIS EVENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND             
SPEEDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT.  A NORTHWEST DIRECTION WILL PERSIST INTO               
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
935 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE EASTERN            
CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A             
HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL                
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON                  
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 9 AM...COLD FRONT NOW SITTING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS IN                   
EASTERN TENNESSEE/WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. LINE OF CONVECTION...AT               
LEAST THE STRONGER SEGMENTS SEEM TO BE BREAKING UP INTO TWO DISTINCT            
CAMPS. THE NORTHERN PART...ALIGNED WITH A VORT MAX...MOVING RAPIDLY             
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 KNOTS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREA HAS A MORE               
EASTERLY COMPONENT ADVECTING TOWARD THE RICHER THETA-E AXIS TOWARD              
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE TRENDS.                  
OVERALL FOR OUR AREA...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED...THE SEVERE THREAT                 
REMAINS THE SAME WITH A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT UNFOLDING. SPC NOW            
HAS THE ENTER AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...FOR OUR                
AREA IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. MCS TO             
THE SOUTH COULD LIMIT VALUES. DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LIMIT HEATING AS              
WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT A LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON             
TIMEFRAME FOR THE WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS RESPECTIVELY.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...COLD ADVECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE                
PERIOD WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY HOLDING TEMPS IN               
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. BY 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL HAVE 850 TEMPS               
BETWEEN -8 AND -10 AND SUB 530 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. STRONG COLD               
ADVECTION AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS                
DURING THE DAY ON WED AS GOOD MIXING BRINGS MOST OF THE 20 TO 25 KT             
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.                                                         
COLD NIGHT ON TAP WED NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW -10 AND               
THICKNESS VALUES AT OR BELOW 520. THESE VALUES WOULD NORMALLY                   
SUGGEST LOWS IN THE TEENS BUT ANTICIPATE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING             
WITH SFC GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING                 
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS MAY DROP TO NEAR 20...BUT               
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.                                     
SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA THU BEFORE SHIFTING N AND E THU              
NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ON THU SIMILAR TO            
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED...EVEN WITH FULL SUN. DO NOT REALLY SEE            
ANY RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE PERIOD ENDS...BUT THU NIGHT WILL PROBABLY            
NOT END UP BEING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WARM FRONT EXTENDING            
S THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL BRUSH THE AREA THU NIGHT                     
SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.             
SFC COLD POOL REMAINS IN PLACE WITH VERY LITTLE EROSION...BUT LACK              
OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIMIT LOWS TO UPPER 20S TO AROUND            
30 VS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NE OF THE REGION FRI             
WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD AND LOW             
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS ON FRI A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.                
THINK GUIDANCE MAY BE TO QUICK TO WARM UP TEMPS AS SHALLOW COLD AIR             
TENDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN GUIDANCE EXPECTS. WENT UNDER GUIDANCE               
FOR FRI BUT MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH. EVEN 850 TEMPS FRI AFTN REMAIN              
BELOW 0.                                                                        
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE N FRI NIGHT INTO SAT CROSSING THE                  
CAROLINA AROUND 12Z. NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES WITH            
BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO THE N AND LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 700              
MB. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO INHERITED SILENT POPS.                          
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT               
CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SAT AND SUN WITH READINGS            
ABOVE CLIMO. FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH IS             
SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE TN                 
VALLEY ON MON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE                
PERIOD WITH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. TRIED TO NARROW               
THE TIMING OF CONVECTION...BASED ON A NICE LINE OF OMEGA BARRELING              
EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT               
ARE MOVING TO THE SURFACE...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO                      
UNRESTRICTED SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE             
TOWARDS MIDDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. GFS MODEL NOT AS                       
ENTHUSIASTIC AS NAM IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD             
THE NAM GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON AND HIGH SHEAR.             
FRONT BLOWS OFF THE COAST BY 00Z...WITH CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT             
IMPROVING RAPIDLY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...BUT                  
REMAIN STRONG FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING. VFR 00Z THROUGH THE            
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.               
NO AVIATION CONCERNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 9 AM...WINDS STILL A LITTLE SLOW TO GET CRANKING THIS MORNING             
ACROSS THE WATERS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER SMALL/WEAK            
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD TIGHTEN UP                  
SHORTLY AND WILL SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS. TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND            
OBSERVATIONS SHOULD CATCH UP WITH FORECAST. NO CHANGES.                         
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                
AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...SFC GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH WED AND            
INTO WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W.                       
COMBINATION OF GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN                
WIND SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF WED. OFFSHORE                
COMPONENT WILL HELP KEEP SEAS  6 FT OR LESS...THOUGH OUT NEAR 20 NM             
SLIGHTLY HIGH SEAS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED.                                          
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY THU AS CENTER OF HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE             
WATERS AND THEN NE OF THE WATERS THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. WEAK                
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND DIRECTION TUE AFTN/NIGHT HIGHLY                         
VARIABLE...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS            
2 TO 4 FT.                                                                      
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...SRLY FLOW ON FRI WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE              
DURING LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE                   
NW...PINCHING THE GRADIENT. SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT LATE FRI INTO             
SAT BUT DURATION MAY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS ABOVE SCA                  
THRESHOLDS. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE            
AND NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION            
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LAX WITH SPEEDS 15 KT              
OR LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST                
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SHK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...SHK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...III                                                                
LONG TERM...III                                                                 
AVIATION...DL                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1005 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VAD WINDS STILL SUPPORT A WINDY DAY                    
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE                      
CREATING A 12MB SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN TO GULF COAST...WINDS                
OVER KHGX AOA 30 KNOTS AT 2K FT. SE TX PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY              
TAUNT THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON WARMTH BRINGING DOWN THOSE                 
NEAR 30 KNOT NORTHERLIES.                                                       
LCH/CRP RAOBS DEPICT A MODERATELY STRONG POST-FROPA DRY CAP UNDER               
THIS MORNING`S SOUTHEASTERN CWA`S STRATO CU DECK...UPSTREAM DEW                 
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. 12Z NAM12/GFS40 MODELING SIGNIFICANT              
BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SO...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INITIAL                      
CONDITIONS...FEEL AS IF THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE SPENT IN                  
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE                 
EXPERIENCED IN NEARLY A MONTH...12Z SUB-FREEZING TEMPS NORTH AND                
ALONG A BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON LINE. THE 40 F ISOTHERM                 
WILL NEARLY REACH THE COAST LINE.                                               
31                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
COLD FRONT ENTERING NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. RUC...NAM12            
AND GFS INDICATE QUITE STRONG WINDS SURFACE TO 850 MB LAYER BEHIND              
FRONT. ALSO...PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT ALREADY TIGHTENING. WE             
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR CWFA FOR TODAY INDICATING 20-25 MPH              
INLAND AREAS AND 25-30 MPH NEAR THE COAST. LINGERING CONVECTION                 
NOTED EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF CWFA DUE TO REGION BEING UNDER RR                 
QUAD OF UPPER JET CORE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE MID LEVELS. THIS                     
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF REGION BEFORE SUNRISE. WE WILL               
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THAT PORTION FOR EARLY MORNING                     
PERIOD ONLY (FOR ZFPHGX). PW VALUES DROPPING OVER REGION AS PER                 
GOES SOUNDER LOOP. NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWFA APPROACHING HALF AN INCH           
BUT STILL MOIST SOUTHEAST REGION PROBABLY NEAR AN INCH. STRONG                  
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S LATER TONIGHT              
INLAND AREAS WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FAR                  
NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTH                 
TEXAS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA                       
DECREASING QUITE A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. UPPER              
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS              
DUE TO HIGH SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST CONUS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL              
INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEKDAY WITH SUSTAINED                  
ONSHORE FLOW. WE SHALL SEE A WARM UP THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND              
ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. WE DID CONTINUE TO MENTION               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS END OF WEEK AND CHANCE (30 PERCENT) WEEKEND.                 
VERTICAL PROFILES WOULD INDICATE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING                  
THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST OLD                
MEXICO BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER FLOW OVER TEXAS BECOMING MORE                       
SOUTHWESTERLY. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE               
TO THE EASTERLY PORTION OF CONUS SATURDAY MAKING THE FLOW ACROSS                
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF MORE EASTERLY. GFS INDICATE                
UPPER LOW OVER OLD MEXICO WILL WEAKEN...OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST LATE              
IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A DEVELOPING LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS INDICATED               
..EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS               
SYSTEM WILL USHER A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR REGION MONDAY. 37                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
SOME SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED GENERALLY FROM THE CONROE-HUNTSVILLE AREA              
AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA. EXPECT THIS              
STUFF TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SOME TIME BEFORE OR RIGHT AROUND                  
SUNRISE. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY UP NORTH)            
WILL SEE A BKN DECK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. ALL              
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE ON OUT SOME TIME LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN                 
TODAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS INLAND AND 20 TO 30 KNOT            
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS. GRADIENT             
RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND AND LATE THIS                  
EVENING ALONG THE COAST. SKC TONIGHT.  42                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 6 PM            
AND FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS                 
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE TODAY`S SEAS INCREASING TO 5 TO 7            
FEET NEARSHORE AND 7 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL              
RELAX TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WE`LL PROBABLY NEED SOME KIND OF                   
CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR               
GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST                  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY                
FLAGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THIS ONSHORE FLOW                   
STRENGTHENS. 42                                                                 
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
WILL DROP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE              
STRONG AND THE GROUND REMAINS DRY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS               
AFTERNOON ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO A 20% TO 25% RANGE.  42              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  32  63  42  71 /  10   0   0   0   0             
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  35  61  42  70 /  10   0   0   0   0             
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  43  59  48  67 /  10   0   0   0   0             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...                 
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...                      
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...                       
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...                      
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.                                             
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE                    
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP                
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                       
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND                 
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO                       
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...31                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1238 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE                
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS IN THE EAST PART OF               
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE                 
EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS JUST               
UPSTREAM SUPPORT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. SATELLITE AND THE LATEST               
RUC INDICATE AT LEAST SOME UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUING                    
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT                
OVERNIGHT...EVEN MORE SO OVER THE AREA LAKES SO WILL KEEP LWA IN                
EFFECT. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOW TO RELAX SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON              
WEDNESDAY EXPECT SFC WINDS TO BE CLOSE TO LWA CRITERIA SO WILL                  
KEEP LWA IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED               
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND                   
THURSDAY. WITH STRONG CAA EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER               
TO MIDDLE 50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY FALL              
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S AS PER MODEL CONSENSUS.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD                    
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED. WILL              
KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER                
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE               
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE              
WEST ON MONDAY SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AT THAT TIME.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDINESS                   
SHIFTING EAST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT               
ENOUGH DRYING AND MIXING FOR VFR BEGINNING AROUND 20Z. IT WILL BE               
BREEZY. USED THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE WIND FORECAST.                           
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                     
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-            
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                                               
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-            
     077.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JL                                                                   
NEAR TERM...JL                                                                  
AVIATION...JL                                                                   
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1128 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH                 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID-              
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.                              
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO GOING GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS...TRENDS AND               
CONSISTENCY. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. -HOWERTON                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONCERN IS MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA.              
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE EITHER CLUELESS OR SERIOUSLY STRUGGLING                  
WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. RUC SORT OF HINTED AT IT AND THE                  
GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL BUFR SOUNDING VALID AT 1500 UTC AT                 
KRSL SORT OF HINTED AT IT AS WELL. MM5 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST                  
HANDLE WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KS               
AT THIS TIME AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA. IT            
SHOWS THE MOISTURE IN NEBRASKA ADVECTING ACROSS NE KS WITH                      
GRAZING SHOT AT KSLN. OPTED TO NOT CUT IT THAT CLOSE AND INCLUDE                
TEMPO GROUP AT KRSL AS WELL GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TREND.                      
OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS                   
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND               
VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. -HOWERTON                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
A DISCERNIBLE 500-MB SHORTWAVE...MOVING S/SE OVER ERN ND @ 12                   
MIDNIGHT WILL RACE S/SE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY...CROSSING THE              
KS/MO BORDER ~12 NOON...THEN THE LWR MS VALLEY ~6PM THIS EVENING.               
THIS FEATURE WILL OPERATE IN TANDEM WITH AN ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE                
MID-UPR RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TO INDUCE A FAST NW               
FLOW REGIME THAT PREVAILS THRU EARLY THU MORNING. AT THAT TIME A 2ND            
500-MB SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE E OVER THE PACIFIC COAST UPR RIDGE TO                
INDUCE DEAMPLIFICATION LATE WED NIGHT. THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE THEN                
SPRINTS SE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...INDUCING SFC-700MB TROFFING                 
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THU MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A WARMING                 
TREND THAT`LL OCCUR WED & THU BEFORE A COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN             
SWEEPS SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.                                           
TODAY:                                                                          
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER MID-MS VALLEY EARLY THIS                   
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ALLOWING              
SKIES TO CLEAR IN GENERAL W-E MANNER OVER THE KICT CWFA.                        
HOWEVER...NLY SFC-850MB FLOW REMAINS QUITE STRONG THRU                          
MID-AFTERNOON...SO BRISK N/NW WINDS TO PERSIST THRU LATE AFTERNOON.             
MOREOVER THE LACKING OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL KEEP PREVENT                 
SIGNIFICANT WARMING...SO HAVE HELD MAXES TO ~40F WITH SE KS ON                  
COOLER SIDE OF FENCE.                                                           
TONIGHT:                                                                        
A VERY WEAK SFC TROF DRIFTS E ACROSS NRN PLAINS TO INDUCE LWR-DECK              
FLOW TO BACK TO A LIGHT WLY COMP. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT                
MINS INTACT WITH LWR 20S ASSIGNED TO ALL AREAS.                                 
WED-THU:                                                                        
WARMING TREND SLATED ALL AREAS FOR REASONS STATED IN "SYNOPSIS"                 
HOWEVER EASED UP ON "DEGREE" OF WARMUP ON THU AS 500-MB SHORTWAVE               
WILL SPREAD CONSIDERABLE CIRROSTRATUS SE ACROSS KS. AS SUCH LOWERED             
MAXES ALL AREAS TO MID/UPR 50S WITH NE CORRIDOR ON COOLER END OF                
THIS THERMAL SPECTRUM.                                                          
THU NIGHT:                                                                      
STRENGTHENING 500-MB SHORTWAVE SURGING E/SE ACROSS FAR NRN PLAINS               
WILL SWEEP A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. AIRMASS DRY...SO             
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO INDUCE NO MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. DUE TO COLD                
FRONT`S LATE ARRIVAL...HAVE RAISED MINS ACROSS SC & SE KS TO 35-40F.            
THIS WEEKEND:                                                                   
FAST ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS FOR MOST OF PERIOD & WITH DEEP SW/WLY FLOW             
OVER THE PLAINS...SAT TO BE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS                  
FLIRTING WITH 70F ALONG WRN CORRIDOR. LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY               
MORNING A STRONGER & DEEPENING POSITIVELY-TILTED UPR-DECK TROF                  
SPRINTS E/SE ACROSS NRN & C PLAINS THAT`LL FORCE FAIRLY POTENT COLD             
FRONT SE ACROSS THE KICT CWFA LATE SAT NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE             
BOUNDARY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO INTRO ~20% -SHRA TO SE KS LATE SAT               
NIGHT. WITH UPR-DECK TROF CONTINUING TO DEEPEN ON SUNDAY...HAVE                 
INTRODUCED EMBEDDED TSRA TO ALL AREAS ON SUN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    41  23  53  31 /   0   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      40  22  53  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          39  22  52  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        39  22  51  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  24  53  31 /   0   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         41  22  53  27 /   0   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      41  23  54  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
SALINA          41  23  51  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       40  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     40  22  53  30 /   0   0   0   0                                
CHANUTE         38  21  51  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
IOLA            37  21  51  28 /   0   0   0   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    39  21  52  29 /   0   0   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1030 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...EXPANDED SCATTERED POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR                
TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH UPPER TROUGH. THE               
FEW LES SHOWERS REMAIN LIGHT ATTM...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS               
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WITH COLD POOL ALOFT STILL WORKING ITS WAYS               
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SNOW                
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH SFC               
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CAA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS FORCING MECHANISMS ARE                  
WEAK... OR NON EXISTENT. SFC PATTERN REFLECTS CWA IN GRADIENT                   
BETWEEN DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY SFC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN                
HIGH PLAINS. AN AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF...WITH A POCKET OF -35C AT              
50H...IS PUSHING INTO THE NWRN CWA THIS MORNING. FLURRIES ARE BEING             
SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MOISTENING COLUMN AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN                    
TEMPORARILY. THIS SCENARIO WILL SPREAD SE TODAY ACROSS CWA WITH NO              
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. BOTH LATEST RUC AND GFS HINT AT A SECONDARY             
SHORTWAVE MIGRATING SOUTH TODAY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH PERHAPS SOME                
ADDITIONAL FLURRIES POSSIBLE.                                                   
STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LES OVER ERN WI ZONES HOWEVER                     
SUMMATION OF LES PARAMETERS INDICATES SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS NOT             
LIKELY. EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AS MID LVL                   
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THERMAL/MOISTURE PROPERTIES OF SYNOPTIC                    
BACKGROUND. HOWEVER...OVERALL FETCH NOT VERY FAVORABLE AS 85H                   
TRAJECTORY MAINTAINS TOO MUCH NW VS NRLY FLOW. THERE MAY BE JUST TOO            
MUCH ICE COVER ON SUPERIOR TO ALLOW ENOUGH MSTR FLUX INTO BL AIR.               
EVEN NORMALLY EXCITABLE HI RES 4KM NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY                   
PRODUCT NOT SUGGESTING ORGANIZED EVENT. BUFKIT PROFILES...BOTH                  
GFS/NAM...RATHER MEAGER WITH PRODUCTION OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE/EQ                 
LEVEL AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN NEAR 4/5K. LES POTENTIAL SHOULD               
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY LESSENS AND            
DEEP LAYER OF DRYING MOVES IN.                                                  
EXTENDED...THUR THROUGH SUNDAY... MEAN MID LVL RIDGE REMAINS OVER               
WRN CONUS WITH  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AMPLIFYING OVER CWA. FIRST ONE               
OCCURS THUR/FRI. MDL CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THIS FAR OUT  WITH                
REGARD TO OVERALL FCST OF SNOWFALL SPREADING EAST THURSDAY. MDL                 
TIMING VARIES FROM FASTEST..ECMWF..TO SLOWER NAM/GFS/CMC...WITH UKM             
IN BETWEEN. BOTH EC/GFS SUGGEST THAT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF MID LVL              
FLOW BY FRIDAY WILL KEEP SYSTEM MOVING EAST... LIMITING SIGNIFICANT             
SNOWFALL. OF COURSE...WITH THIS LACKLUSTER SNOW SEASON AS OF                    
LATE....2 INCHES MIGHT SEEM SIGNIFICANT TO SOME. ANOTHER CHANCE OF              
SNOW SAT/SUN WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE. EC/GFS HAVE SOME TIMING                 
DIFFERENCES BOTH BOTH FOCUS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION OVER FAR NRN            
CWA.                                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...AS WELL AS A                               
SHORTWAVE...WILL LEAD TO MVFR OR LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY. AREAS OF               
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 3            
TO 5 MILES IN SPOTS DURING THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE A BIT                   
HEAVIER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE                               
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KASX...TOWARD KIWD.                               
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  22   4  19   3 /  20  10  10  10                                           
INL  17   0  18  -3 /  20  10  10  20                                           
BRD  26   6  23   7 /  20  10  10  20                                           
HYR  26   3  21  -3 /  30  10  10  10                                           
ASX  24   7  19   3 /  50  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LILES                                                                           
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
243 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE THE CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM LATE             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND            
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z THIS MORNING INDICATED A MID TROPOSPHERIC             
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO TEXAS...A RIDGE OVER THE                
WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN CANADA...AND MORE COMPLEX TROUGHING OVER              
THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 130 W AND 150 W. STRONG SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR                
37 N 138 W WAS IMPRESSIVE. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY BE THE FEATURE              
THAT THE 12Z GFS MODEL BRINGS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY.             
MORE ON THAT LATER. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 20Z SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE                
EXTENDING FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT              
IN OUR AREA HAS BEEN DECREASING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE               
LOOP STILL SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE               
AREA...BUT IT WAS MOVING EASTWARD AND STARTING TO BECOME BROKEN                 
RATHER THAN OVERCAST IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE                  
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME FLURRIES COULD STILL FALL FROM THESE               
CLOUDS THIS EVENING.                                                            
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SHIFT EAST OF              
THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH LOWS GENERALLY COLDER THAN                
BOTH THE GFS AND ETA MOS GUIDANCE...BASED ON DECREASING CLOUDINESS              
AND LIGHT WINDS. MOS DID NOT SEEM TO BAD ON WEDNESDAY...SINCE MORE              
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MOST SPOTS SHOULD HIT 35 TO 40...WITH MUCH                
OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE LOWER OR MID 40S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS               
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW                 
BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THEN AND TREND FOR THICKENING CLOUDINESS.                 
DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE                   
NORTH WHERE MODELS INDICATED A DECENT COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND               
LIFT. PCPN TYPE WAS BASED ON BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ANY PCPN                
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THEN JUST              
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT                
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES BASED ON TWO AREAS OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION              
FORECAST BY THE 12Z GFS. FIRST WAS CENTERED AROUND 18Z THURSDAY                 
IN THE 600 MB TO 300 MB LAYER. THE SECOND WAS MORE BETWEEN 850 MB               
AND 700 MB CLOSER TO 00Z FRIDAY. THIS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
FEATURE THAT WAS OUT OVER THE PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR                
PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SEEMED MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES BOTH                
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 40S MOST AREAS.                       
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                        
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS CONSIST OF TRANSITION FROM                   
RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS DAYS 4/5...TO A COOL DOWN DAY 6 WITH                 
POSSIBLE PCPN...THEN MODEST TEMP REBOUND DAY 7. UPPER SHORT WAVE                
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT KICKS THE                
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER                  
TROF ENERGY SEPARATES WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOWING ACROSS THE               
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PIECE SINKS INTO THE                  
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. EASTWARD MIGRATING NORTHERN TROF SPINS UP                  
SURFACE LOW IN ALBERTA BY 12Z SAT WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT                    
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN MT TO IA. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY               
THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE BULK OF GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTED THE GFS 12Z RUN HAS                 
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS COMPARED TO THE              
06Z RUN. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN CHANCES LOOK REASONABLE STARTING                   
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE                  
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE PLAINS. APPEARS FROM CRITICAL THKNS/850 TEMP               
PROGS THAT PCPN TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN EARLY ON WITH A TRANSITION TO               
RAIN/SNOW MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. FROPA                  
THROUGH THE CWA SHOULD BE COMPLETE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE               
POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA VIA UPPER                  
DEFORMATION ZONE. DRY AND A BIT WARMER THEN ON DAY 7.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.                                             
AN AREA OF STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WITH FLURRIES MOVED INTO THE                   
FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY                    
EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...HAVE THE TRANSITION FROM STRATUS TO                    
HIGHER CLDS FM 00Z TO 03Z. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM THE NEW RUC                
THAT THESE LOW CLDS MAY HANG ON LONGER...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE                
MONITORED. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE               
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IN NORTHWEST               
FLOW WILL BRING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH               
SOME LOWER AND MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY               
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER...THERE MAY BE SOME                     
PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS 3-5SM FM AROUND 13 TO 15Z.                                
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MILLER                                                             
LONG TERM...DEE                                                                 
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY                                                            
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1120 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS ARE               
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE INLAND BETWEEN 01-04Z. 43                                  
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VAD WINDS STILL SUPPORT A WINDY DAY                    
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE                      
CREATING A 12MB SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN TO GULF COAST...WINDS                
OVER KHGX AOA 30 KNOTS AT 2K FT. SE TX PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY              
TAUNT THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON WARMTH BRINGING DOWN THOSE                 
NEAR 30 KNOT NORTHERLIES.                                                       
LCH/CRP RAOBS DEPICT A MODERATELY STRONG POST-FROPA DRY CAP UNDER               
THIS MORNING`S SOUTHEASTERN CWA`S STRATO CU DECK...UPSTREAM DEW                 
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. 12Z NAM12/GFS40 MODELING SIGNIFICANT              
BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SO...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INITIAL                      
CONDITIONS...FEEL AS IF THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE SPENT IN                  
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE                 
EXPERIENCED IN NEARLY A MONTH...12Z SUB-FREEZING TEMPS NORTH AND                
ALONG A BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON LINE. THE 40 F ISOTHERM                 
WILL NEARLY REACH THE COAST LINE.                                               
31                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
COLD FRONT ENTERING NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. RUC...NAM12            
AND GFS INDICATE QUITE STRONG WINDS SURFACE TO 850 MB LAYER BEHIND              
FRONT. ALSO...PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT ALREADY TIGHTENING. WE             
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR CWFA FOR TODAY INDICATING 20-25 MPH              
INLAND AREAS AND 25-30 MPH NEAR THE COAST. LINGERING CONVECTION                 
NOTED EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF CWFA DUE TO REGION BEING UNDER RR                 
QUAD OF UPPER JET CORE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE MID LEVELS. THIS                     
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF REGION BEFORE SUNRISE. WE WILL               
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THAT PORTION FOR EARLY MORNING                     
PERIOD ONLY (FOR ZFPHGX). PW VALUES DROPPING OVER REGION AS PER                 
GOES SOUNDER LOOP. NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWFA APPROACHING HALF AN INCH           
BUT STILL MOIST SOUTHEAST REGION PROBABLY NEAR AN INCH. STRONG                  
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S LATER TONIGHT              
INLAND AREAS WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FAR                  
NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER FAR SOUTH                 
TEXAS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS ACROSS OUR CWFA                       
DECREASING QUITE A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. UPPER              
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS              
DUE TO HIGH SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST CONUS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL              
INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEKDAY WITH SUSTAINED                  
ONSHORE FLOW. WE SHALL SEE A WARM UP THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND              
ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. WE DID CONTINUE TO MENTION               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS END OF WEEK AND CHANCE (30 PERCENT) WEEKEND.                 
VERTICAL PROFILES WOULD INDICATE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING                  
THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST OLD                
MEXICO BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER FLOW OVER TEXAS BECOMING MORE                       
SOUTHWESTERLY. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE               
TO THE EASTERLY PORTION OF CONUS SATURDAY MAKING THE FLOW ACROSS                
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF MORE EASTERLY. GFS INDICATE                
UPPER LOW OVER OLD MEXICO WILL WEAKEN...OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST LATE              
IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A DEVELOPING LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS INDICATED               
..EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS               
SYSTEM WILL USHER A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR REGION MONDAY. 37                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
SOME SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED GENERALLY FROM THE CONROE-HUNTSVILLE AREA              
AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA. EXPECT THIS              
STUFF TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SOME TIME BEFORE OR RIGHT AROUND                  
SUNRISE. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY UP NORTH)            
WILL SEE A BKN DECK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. ALL              
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE ON OUT SOME TIME LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN                 
TODAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS INLAND AND 20 TO 30 KNOT            
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS. GRADIENT             
RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND AND LATE THIS                  
EVENING ALONG THE COAST. SKC TONIGHT.  42                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 6 PM            
AND FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS                 
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. HAVE TODAY`S SEAS INCREASING TO 5 TO 7            
FEET NEARSHORE AND 7 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL              
RELAX TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WE`LL PROBABLY NEED SOME KIND OF                   
CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR               
GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST                  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY                
FLAGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THIS ONSHORE FLOW                   
STRENGTHENS. 42                                                                 
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
WILL DROP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE              
STRONG AND THE GROUND REMAINS DRY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS               
AFTERNOON ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO A 20% TO 25% RANGE.  42              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  32  63  42  71 /  10   0   0   0   0             
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  35  61  42  70 /  10   0   0   0   0             
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  43  59  48  67 /  10   0   0   0   0             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...                 
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...                      
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...                       
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...                      
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.                                             
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE                    
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP                
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                       
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND                 
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO                       
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...31                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
301 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                              
FOCUS TODAY WAS ADDING DETAIL TO YET ANOTHER ACCUMULATING SNOW                  
EVENT HEADED FOR THE AREA THURS AFTN/EVENING...AND RATHER                       
INSIGNIFICANT CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS TONIGHT/WED.                             
CURRENTLY...GOES 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SHOWING TWO LARGE STRATUS                
FIELDS IN COLD ADVECTION/NORTHERLY FLOW. ONE OVER MUCH OF                       
WISCONSIN...THE OTHER OVER MUCH OF SRN/WRN MN...AND THIS ONE HAS                
MANY FLURRIES. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT DOWN THE MS              
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE ARX FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES MOVING                 
LITTLE TODAY...WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 20S...WELL BELOW NORMAL.              
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN RUC/LAPS SOUNDINGS OWING TO THE GUSTY                      
WINDS/MIXING WITH LOW DEWPOINTS /SINGLE DIGITS/ OVER THE AREA.                  
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WITH                            
CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES THE FOCUS. WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS CURRENTLY               
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS OVER THE DAKOTAS CURRENTLY...HAVE               
CONCERNS THAT MAY SEE REMNANTS OF THIS STRATUS FIELD WELL INTO                  
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF                      
SUPERIOR OVER NCNTL WISCONSIN. A COUPLE MORE WEAK WAVES                         
TONIGHT/WED WILL ENHANCE WEAK LIFT/CYCLONIC FLOW BEFORE THINGS                  
BREAK OUT FOR GOOD WED NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY TRICKY                  
GIVEN POCKETS OF CLEARING. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS...ANYONE THAT CLEARS              
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW GOING FORECAST.              
BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGES...HARD TO GO TOO LOW         
ON MIN TEMPS. WEDNESDAY VERY SIMILAR...IN TERMS OF THERMAL                      
STRUCTURE AND LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATE. MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN AND                     
FLURRIES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SHOULD                
SEE MORE CLEARING WED NIGHT WITH A BETTER DROP ON                               
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.                                         
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFY INTO THE                   
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING                  
IMPACTING WEATHER TO FORECAST AREA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW A                   
SOLID BET. OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT IN NUMEROUS RUNS OF                            
GFS/GEFS/SREF/NAM/ECMWF...THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL                  
DAYS NOW...SO TOOK POPS CATEGORICAL. 285-295K LAYER SHOWS STRONG                
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH A               
NOTICEABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL IN THIS DATA...RIGHT INTO THE              
FORECAST AREA. 26.12Z GFS SHOWING TWO CENTERS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL                
Q/G FORCING WHICH WILL BOTH FOCUS ON FORECAST AREA...AND THERE HAS              
BEEN GOOD EVIDENCE IN PROBABILITIES ON QPF IN THE SREFS/GEFS THAT               
AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT THE HIGHEST                 
SNOW TOTALS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OFF TO                
THE EAST AS IT DEEPENS...SO THIS MAKES SENSE TO SEE HIGHER TOTALS               
EAST. REGARDLESS...A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                
IN MOST AREAS WITH 4-6 HRS OF STRONG ASCENT AND MODERATE SNOW.                  
WILL LIKELY SEE A NARROWER STRIPE OF 3-4 INCH SNOWS WHERE LIFT                  
DURATION IS LONGER /EAST OF RIVER/...BUT THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL WILL              
COME IN FUTURE SHIFTS. GOOD THING...A TRANSIENT SYSTEM...AS                     
MENTIONED ABOVE AS IT WILL SNOW AT A GOOD CLIP AS IT MOVES                      
THROUGH. SNOW RATIOS START OUT HIGH...BUT WILL DECREASE ON THE                  
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION DECREASES                 
RATIOS. TEMPERATURES FALL LITTLE WITH THE STRONG WARM                           
ADVECTION...AND THEN MOVE LITTLE ON FRIDAY AS COLD ADVECTION                    
INCREASES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.                                  
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                           
BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD THAT IT WILL BE                    
UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WITH A POTENTIALLY LARGE MOISTURE LADEN STORM                  
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY/MONDAY. MILD /NEAR NORMAL/              
FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD GO INTO MELTING A FEW INCHES OFF THE               
DEEP SNOWPACK OVER THE AREA. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH              
DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THIS WARMING. MAY BE                   
DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARM                      
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW AREAS OF                
RAIN TO BREAK OUT AS NRN STREAM ENERGY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN              
CANADA...DRIVING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.                 
NEED TO WATCH STRONG SRN STREAM ENERGY LAGGING BACK WHICH MAY                   
INDUCE DEEP CYCLONE ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY LATE IN THE                     
WEEKEND...AND WHAT WILL BECOME A VERY WET SYSTEM ESPECIALLY SOUTH.              
IF NRN STREAM CAN PUSH THROUGH FAST ENOUGH...BRINGING IN COLDER                 
AIR...WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY                 
OR EVEN INTO MONDAY IF A DEEP ENOUGH SFC LOW CAN DEVELOP. SOME                  
SUBTLE HINTS AT THIS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /GEFS/ AND NEW 26.12Z              
ECMWF. LOOKS LIKE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COME OUT BELOW NORMAL AGAIN              
IN TEMPS AS LARGE ERN PACIFIC RIDGE ALLOWS TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE               
HEIGHT/TEMP ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CLOUD DECK //1-3KFT// SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                         
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH SATURATED LOW LAYERS AND A 500 MB                      
SHORTWAVE. THERE IS A BREAK AHEAD OF THIS DECK THOUGH...BASICALLY               
RUNNING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RH FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT               
THIS PARTLY CLOUDY AREA MAY HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SOME                  
FLURRIES/-SN ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CLOUD DECK...THANKS TO               
GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. GENERALLY NO VSBY                    
RESTRICTION WITH THE LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF 4SM            
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT THE SNOW TO             
MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS TONIGHT ARE PROBLEMATIC...WITH               
THAT MVFR DECK JUST WEST OF THE RIVER...AND SCATTERED CONDITIONS TO             
THE EAST. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION...PER THE                 
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DOES NOT WORK INTO THE                
REGION UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HOLD BACK ON CLEARING OF THE              
LOW CLOUDS UNTIL LATER WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS THAT              
THE LOW DECK MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR EAST AS PREVIOUS THOUGH.                    
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE CLOUDS TRENDS AT THE MOMENT...BUT WILL            
STAY WITH A MORE CLOUDY TREND THROUGHOUT TONIGHT FOR BOTH KRST AND              
KLSE. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR MORE SCT CLOUDS FOR KLSE                 
TONIGHT...AND THE BREAKUP OF THE MVFR DECK MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED              
UNTIL LATE WED MORNING.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RIECK                                                                
</pre> wi