AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
333 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                                           
WARM AND DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.             
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. RIVERS RESPONDING TO SNOW MELT                
INCREASE WITH RIO GRANDE AT DEL NORTE UP ABOUT 6 INCHES BUT STILL               
WELL BELOW ANY ACTION STAGE.                                                    
TONIGHT...WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW SHOWING UP ON WV             
IMAGERY. FEATURE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW AND SHOULD CROSS             
SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. RUC PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE WITH             
SMALL AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER PIKES PEAK REGION. NAM ALSO SEEING             
THIS BUT HAS LESS PRECIP. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED -TSRA                     
MENTIONED WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 20S MOST                
AREAS AND LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE IS AT MID LEVELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE             
INVERTED V SO EXPECT WORST CASE TO BE VIRGA AND PERHAPS ISOLATED                
WIND GUSTS. FEATURE TRAVELS TO KS BORDER BY 06S. EXPECT SNOWMELT TO             
CONTINUE WITH TEMPS REMAINING MILD OVERNIGHT.                                   
TUESDAY...WARM AGAIN WITH FORECASTED TEMPS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE                 
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDER PLAYING THE TEMPS PAST FEW             
DAYS SO LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.                
WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM TUESDAY BUT FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY                 
BELOW 9000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD FAVOR DIURNAL PATTERN. WARM               
TEMPS WILL ACCELERATE SNOW MELT SO LOOK FOR FLOW TO INCREASE                    
ESPECIALLY SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS FEEDING THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER            
ARKANSAS.    -FORTUNE-                                                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)                                             
LEFT THE ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY EVENING AS MODELS TRY               
TO HOLD ONTO SOME VERY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS.               
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY OVER                  
MOST OF THE AREA...AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN                 
AND DRYLINE SHARPENS UP OVER THE PLAINS. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE                 
DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE KS BORDER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GFS                   
TRENDING WESTWARD AS WELL. FOR NOW...KEPT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH                
IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE PLAINS...BUT MAY NEED TO TRIM THE EASTERN               
TIER OF COUNTIES OFF IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS KEEP CONTINUE TO                  
KEEP DEWPOINTS UP. TSRA CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE LOOK FAIRLY                   
LOW...AS MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND CONVERGENCE WEAK. 700 MB                  
TEMPS OF 14-16C AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAIRLY STOUT CAP               
AS WELL. WILL HOLD ON TO ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE OVER THE FAR                    
EAST...BUT KEEP I-25 CORRIDOR AND MOST EASTERN MOUNTAINS DRY WITH               
DEWPOINTS TANKING AND DOWNSLOPE DOMINATING. KEPT THE CHANCE OF                  
TSRA OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CLOSER TO THE UPPER                          
LOW...THROUGH WED. NOT SURE WHY GUIDANCE HAS COOLED WED MAX TEMPS               
BACK INTO THE 80S ON THE PLAINS...STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW TO MID 90S               
GIVEN 700MB TEMPS NEAR 16C.                                                     
FORECAST FOR THU AND BEYOND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON DRYLINE POSITION                
AND ANY EASTWARD WOBBLES OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. 12Z                     
NAM/GFS SHOVE THE DRYLINE WELL EAST INTO KANSAS THU                             
AFTERNOON...WHILE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST. STILL LIKE THE EC                      
SOLUTION BEST...BUT EVEN IT WOULD SUGGEST MAIN CHANCE OF TSRA                   
WOULD BE ONLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST                      
COLORADO. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS IF WE CAN                 
HOLD ON TO THE MOISTURE...WITH 0-6KM VALUES RUNNING OVER 70 KNOTS.              
DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT                
PLAINS...THUS REMOVED POPS FROM MOST EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE                  
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER                   
HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM A LITTLE MORE                     
OPTIMISTIC SPREADING PRECIP EASTWARD OVER THE CONTINENTAL                       
DIVIDE...WITH GFS MUCH DRIER...WILL KEEP JUST SCATTERED POPS IN                 
PLACE FOR NOW. MODEL 700MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...SO TRIMMED BACK                
MAX TEMP GRIDS JUST A TOUCH.                                                    
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL                              
UNSETTLED...WITH DRYLINE LURKING ON THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD               
AND VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN U.S. CUT-              
OFF. IN GENERAL...12Z MODELS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN 24 HOURS                   
AGO...LIFTING UPPER ENERGY TOO FAR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TO HELP                
MUCH WITH PRECIP GENERATION. IN FACT...12Z GFS KEEPS DRY SLOT                   
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN              
COLORADO EXCEPT OVER THE FAR EAST AND EXTREME WEST. SUPPOSE THIS                
WILL CHANGE TOMORROW...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS AND SLIGHTLY                   
COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE UNTIL THE DUST CLEARS.  --PETERSEN                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VCTS IN COS TAF BASED ON SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW.                 
FAIRLY DRY AT LOW LEVELS SO EXPECT MOSTLY VIRGA WITH ISOLATED WIND              
GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE VFR                
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                     
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-224>237.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/10                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
158 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER                        
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY RESULTING IN RAIN                
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE              
WILL RESULT IN COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE START                
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
AT 02Z...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVES ACROSS ERN NY AND              
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE H500 SHORTWAVE TIED THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING                
THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO                
BASED ON THE THE LATEST RUC13. THE LATEST RADAR/LTG OVERLAY SHOWS               
ALL THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRAS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF THE                  
DAYTIME HEATING. WE PLACES ISOLD/SCT SHRAS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND              
THEN WENT DRY THEREAFTER. WE HAVE NOTICED A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE               
0000 UTC ALY SOUNDING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE ECHOES ON THE RADAR           
BEING TOO HIGH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY /VIRGA EFFECT COUPLED WITH                  
ATTENUATION/.                                                                   
WE DID KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS BELOW 500 FT WHERE               
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE. A BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER               
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS.                     
TEMPS/DEWPTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE HOURLY TRENDS. THE CURRENT              
HOURLY TRENDS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
LONGWAVE TROUGH GETS REINFORCED OVER REGION KEEPING WEATHER COOL AND            
UNSETTLED. MORE ENERGY WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO TROUGH              
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER PA AND                
MOVE E-NE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER                
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE             
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. LOOKING AT A                   
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH             
500 MB TEMPS OF 27-29 CELSIUS. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE COOL INSTABILITY          
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SINCE IT IS SO COLD ALOFT.                                   
YET ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF               
CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY REINFORCING THE TROUGH.                
THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ENERGY             
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST JUST SOUTH OF DELMARVA.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
APPEARS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED                  
STATES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING REGION COOLER THAN                         
NORMAL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR               
FOR ALBANY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.                  
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING IN FROM WEST FRIDAY               
INTO SATURDAY IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
THE BACK EDGE OF FIRST CLOUD SHIELD WILL REACH HUDSON VALLEY IN                 
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN WAKE OF TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH                 
REGION. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE                   
MEASURABLE RAIN FELL AND WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE AGAIN               
IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS HAVE MVFR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT              
KGFL BTWN 08Z AND 11Z WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT/OR LESS THAN 3 KTS.                
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE FROM SW PA THIS MORNING INTO SOUTHERN              
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE                   
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO TAF SITES FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING AT               
KPOU AROUND 17Z...KALB AROUND 18Z AND KGFL AROUND 19Z WITH A                    
STEADY RAIN CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATING                   
LATER TONIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR CLOSE TO MVFR LEVELS            
BTWN 1700 UTC AND 2100 UTC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO                    
SOUTHWEST AT 6-10 KTS TODAY SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 4-6                
KTS THIS EVENING.                                                               
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS...BRISK WINDS...SCT -SHRA KALB NORTH.                    
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRAS ESPECIALLY LATE             
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY MORNING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER INTO MID WEEK AS REGION REMAINS UNDER                
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.                                            
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 95 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT              
AND DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE             
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY NIGHT AND              
DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 45 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR               
35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE LITCHFIELD               
HILLS.                                                                          
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO               
15 TO 20 MPH MONDAY MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY WITH GUSTY UP TO 35              
MPH. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT TO 5 TO 10 MPH AND BE 10              
TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY/S SYSTEM GENERALLY RANGED FROM                     
0.50-0.75 ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON                      
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS...AND NW CT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER                  
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES DID OCCUR. FURTHER N/W...RAINFALL                   
AMOUNTS SHARPLY DECLINED...WITH GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH            
N/W OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH             
IMMEDIATELY TO THE S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AMOUNTS WERE FAR              
LESS THAN INDICATED IN STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES FROM THE KENX                      
RADAR...AS SIGNIFICANT BRIGHT BANDING OCCURRED DUE TO A RELATIVELY              
LOW FREEZING LEVEL DURING THIS RAIN EVENT.                                      
SMALLER STREAMS/CREEKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND                     
SCHOHARIE BASIN EXPERIENCED MINOR RISES OF 1 FOOT OR LESS THUS FAR              
FROM THE RAINFALL. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH                 
EARLY TODAY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.                      
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...TO UP TO ONE              
QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER                      
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE                
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO                            
ADDITIONAL...MINOR RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH                  
MONDAY...WITH LARGER STEM RIVERS ALSO POTENTIALLY WITNESSING MINOR              
RISES AS WELL EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...11                                                                   
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
938 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...REST OF TODAY...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-850 MB             
CONFLUENT ZONE ALIGNED ALONG A CLOUD BAND THAT EXTENDED FROM THE                
GULF INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THE MODELS SHOW THIS CONFLUENT ZONE                 
WEAKENING BUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.                 
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST                
WITHIN THIS BAND AS DEEP LAYER FLOW IS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR THIS              
TIME OF YEAR...SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF                   
CONVECTION.                                                                     
THE POSITION OF THE JET TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WEAK            
DIVERGENCE ALOFT BUT ALSO THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS              
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  THEREFORE HEATING SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED               
AND DO NOT EXPECT THE JUMP TO THE MID 90S THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AS            
THE DEBRIS CLOUDS DISSIPATED.  WITH MORE LIMITED HEATING TODAY THE              
ATMOSPHERE WILL STRUGGLE TO DESTABILIZE SO THE CHANCE FOR STORMS                
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AND MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS IN THE                   
CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD SUFFICE.                                                
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...               
EXCEPT WHERE REPEATED CELLS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  A FEW SPOTS             
THAT ARE LUCKY MAY GET A HALF TO ONE INCH.  THE CURRENT POP                     
DISTRIBUTION...WHICH HAS 40 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND             
20 PERCENT ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE...LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COVER THE              
SITUATION.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE                  
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY FROM ORLANDO-CANAVERAL AND              
SOUTHWARD.  A FEW CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING                   
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.  DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH                
TONIGHT SO LOW STRATUS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO WIND/SEA CONCERNS THE REST OF THE DAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW             
WILL BE NO MORE THAN 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET NEAR                
SHORE AND 3-4 FEET AT 60 NM OFFSHORE.  BOATERS WILL HAVE TO BE AWARE            
OF SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD WHERE BRIEF                  
WIND/SEA INCREASES OCCUR ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING.                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WITH WEST WIND AND DEW POINTS             
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO THE UPPER            
40 AND LOW 50S MOST AREAS THROUGH MID WEEK. ISOLATED LIGHTNING                  
STORMS TODAY...WITH DECREASING THREAT OF AFTERNOON RAIN TUESDAY                 
THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LASCODY/WIMMER                                                                  
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
310 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE                  
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND                     
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND ANCHORED BY AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER            
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE              
MAIN FEATURE AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
TOWARD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTS. FURTHER UPSTREAM WE FIND            
AMPLIFIED RIDGING COVERING THE U.S PACIFIC COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST             
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. OVERHEAD OF OUR FORECAST AREA WE               
STILL FIND NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER              
THE FLOW WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST CONTINUES              
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE RIDING NORTH AND            
EAST AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY IS SPREADING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS OUR             
SKIES.                                                                          
AT THE SURFACE...GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW IS FOUND ALONG THE GULF COAST            
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE              
MAIN TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IS DROPPING INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND             
HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                           
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL               
CONTINUE EAST THROUGH TODAY WHILE MERGING/ABSORBING INTO THE                    
AMPLIFYING EAST COAST TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REALLY "ALL               
OVER THE PLACE" IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR              
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANIED SYNOPTIC SCALE                    
FORCING. LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGES FROM THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE ALL            
TRENDED DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THEIR QPF (SIGNIFICANTLY               
DRIER IN TERMS OF THE GFS...18Z MAV POP AT KTLH WAS 76% AND THE 00Z             
POP IS 27%) BUT ALL STILL DO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER                
MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE               
FORCING MECHANISMS...BROAD AREA OF MODEST DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR                   
CONVERGENCE IS UNANIMOUSLY PROGGED TO SPREAD EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE            
AXIS. ALSO WILL BE LOOKING AT A STRENGTHENING 300-250MB JET STREAK              
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CAN                
EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL FORCED ASSENT IN ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ                     
DIVERGENCE TO COMPLETE THE OVERALL DYNAMICS. THE FORCING WILL BE                
MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO                    
SURPRISE THAT THIS WILL WHERE THE GUIDANCE IS GENERATING ITS LIGHT              
QPF. THE DOWNFALL TO THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS THAT THE OVERALL AVAILABLE             
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. TO SUM IT ALL UP...WILL BE KEEPING                  
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE AREAS                     
DESCRIBED ABOVE BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT WANT TO IMPLY A WASHOUT OF A               
DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES GET GOING SHOULD BE NUISANCE WDLY SCT            
TO SCT IN NATURE...BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO                
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY FOR ALL. EVEN               
WITHOUT THE SHOWERS WILL BE GOING WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY            
REGIONWIDE WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN            
PART OF THE AREA. MORE IN THE WAY OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE                   
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE BEST MID/UPPER                
LEVEL DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES              
THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.                            
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AFTER TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET IN TERMS             
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY              
SKIES. GENERAL LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE              
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WITH OUR AREA FINDING ITSELF ON THE VERY            
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.                                          
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND             
THEN TENDS TO WASH OUT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE               
BOTHERING OUR AREA. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS               
FRONT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT DISSIPATING LONG BEFORE IT REACHES OUR               
NORTHERN ZONES. SEASONABLE LOWS TONIGHT WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S               
INLAND AND MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY THROUGH                
TUESDAY WILL FIND THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED            
TO OUR SOUTH WITH ITS AXIS RUNNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE              
FL PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP AN            
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GOING INTO OUR ZONES. AIRMASS             
CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING                  
BETWEEN 14 AND 16C MONDAY AND 16 TO 18C BY TUESDAY. THIS MEANS A                
RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO OR SLIGHT ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WITH MONDAY                    
AFTERNOON TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND TUESDAY                    
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90. DUE TO THE ONSHORE SW FLOW                  
CAN EXPECT COASTAL AREAS TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                  
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                  
WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE                
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY                 
AFTERNOON. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE                   
EAST...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS            
OVER GEORGIA ZONES. BY THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LOWS OVER NEW ENGLAND              
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FLANK A STRENGTHENING RIDGE EXTENDING                  
NORTHWEST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EURO AND GFS DISAGREE ON                   
STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE THURSDAY INTO                     
FRIDAY...WITH EURO MOVING STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTO WEAKER RIDGE. WILL            
PLAY MIDDLE OF ROAD FOR NOW AND KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR                
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP              
DEEPEN THE EASTERN UPPER LOW BY SATURDAY...WITH SOLID HIGH PRESSURE             
WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BACKDOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH               
THE DEEPENING EAST COAST TROUGH WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES              
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.                                                           
.FIRE WX...MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH                
APPROACHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE                 
CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY...KEEPING RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL                   
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL                   
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN                
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT                  
SHOWERS...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO HAVE              
GONE BACK TO PROB30S FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THESE SAME                     
TERMINALS MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. FOR THE             
MOST PART...CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE BKN040. ALONG WITH INCREASED                 
CLOUDINESS...WILL ALSO SEE INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS             
OVER 20KT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA                 
THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK               
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH CAUTIONARY              
LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL THEN BECOME             
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE             
WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY CRITERIA.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING               
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL                    
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A TOUCH DRIER WITH              
A DEEP MIXING LAYER. DISPERSIONS AND RH VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE               
TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED                
WITH DISPERSIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH FOR NOW.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  83  63  90  66  91 /  20  10  05   0  05                           
PANAMA CITY  81  68  85  69  85 /  20  10  05   0  05                           
DOTHAN       84  64  87  67  90 /  10  05  05   0  05                           
ALBANY       84  63  89  66  90 /  10  05  05   0  05                           
VALDOSTA     83  63  88  64  90 /  20  10  05   0  05                           
CROSS CITY   84  66  89  66  89 /  30  20  05   0  05                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/LONG TERM/FIRE WX...CAMP                                               
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
534 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                           
NORTH WINDS WILL DROP OFF VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 5-6 PM THIS EVENING...             
BECOMING LIGHT SELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH                 
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EWD AND A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM            
THE WRN DAKOTAS IN THE FAST NWLY FLOW. LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE VERY             
LOW DUE TO DEEP MIXING OF DRY AIR DOWN FROM ABOVE...SO IT WILL TAKE             
AWHILE FOR DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MODELS HAVE A VARYING IDEA OF HOW THINGS WILL                 
EVOLVE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT BY 09Z...ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD                    
SATURATE ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. BETTER CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH               
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 20-30 CORRIDOR AND THEN SEWD TOWARD DAYBREAK AS              
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW             
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE SHOWERS TRACK RAPIDLY                       
EWD...ENDING ALMOST TO I-35 BY 12Z OR SO AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN                
FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND              
LIGHT.                                                                          
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE                 
FORCING QUICKLY HEADS SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. BY EARLY MONDAY                
EVENING...A 100+KT JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH INTO IOWA                
WITH ENHANCED LF QUAD UVM. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALSO                
FORECAST TO DIP ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. DEEP LAYER...MAINLY                      
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM                           
ORGANIZATION...DESPITE ONLY MODEST MU CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.                    
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED PLENTY OF DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND               
DCAPE FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MEAN NW FLOW IS 40+ KTS AND            
THE IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD             
OF 7 TO 11 PM. WILL UPDATE HWO FOR ISOLD SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY                 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER AIR WILL                 
SPREAD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED NW              
FLOW.                                                                           
ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES WEDNESDAY WILL GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS ON                
OVERRUNNING SCENARIO...IMPACTING MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE               
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS             
REMAINS ELUSIVE IN THE LATER PERIODS. FOR SEVERAL RUNS IN A                     
ROW...THE ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND                   
CAPPING...SHUTTING OFF PRECIP OVER THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH THE                   
WEEKEND. THAT IS...UNTIL TODAY/S 12Z RUN...WHICH NOW BREAKS DOWN THE            
RIDGE AND BRINGS IOWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SW FLOW SHORT WAVE                 
TROUGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STARTING TO                 
TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...AND DRIER                    
CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA. FOR NOW...WILL STAY WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED             
SCENARIO AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS FRI-SUN BACK TO SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY              
MAINLY W/SW SECTIONS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...19/00Z                                                              
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS ACROSS                  
CENTRAL IOWA TERMINALS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SURFCAE RIDGE CONTINUES TO            
ENTER THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO STRONGER               
DECOUPLING BETWEEN 01 AND 02 PER CURRENT RUC SOUNDING FORECASTS                 
SHOWING STRONGER INVERSION...SO WILL HPOLD ONTO GUSTINESS IN                    
TERMINALS UNTIL 02 UTC. BOTH GFS AND NAM/WRF INDICATING SHOWERS                 
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY MONDAY MORNING SO WILL PLACE A                
-SHRA/SHRA PERIODS IN TERMINALS FROM AROUND 12 TO 16 UTC.                       
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JUNGBLUTH/71                                              
LONG TERM...KINNEY                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
219 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MOST OF PAH FA NOW IN WARM SECTOR...AWAITING ARRIVAL OF SURFACE                 
LOW ANALYZED AT 19Z NR/JUST SOUTH OF LSX. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT                  
SHOULD BE ENTERING NW REACHES OF FA BY 00Z AS LOW DIVES SSE...HOWEVER           
NOSE OF SURFACE TDS IS ONLY IN THE 50S AND IN FACT TDS ARE FALLING              
IN PAH FA THIS PM. SO DESPITE MOISTURE STARVING AT THE SURFACE/LOWEST           
LAYERS...BLOW OFF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AIDING CAPPING ENVIRO OVER MUCH               
OF NRN FA...WITH ONLY WAA -SHRA SO FAR. STILL IN SEE TEXT FOR                   
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE NEAR LOW CENTER...MAINLY SEMO/SWKY...IF               
CAP CAN BREAK. WILL CONTINUE CARRYING SMALL CHC POPS TIL FROPA                  
TONIGHT...WITH DRYING SOUNDINGS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP FROM WEST AFT 06Z.         
NAM/GFS BOTH SUPPORT TUE PM INSTABILITY CHC -SHRA AS PVA MAX ROTATES            
THRU BASE OF MEAN LONG WAVE TROF OVER MID-UPR OH VALLEY...SO                    
INSERTED 20 POP THERE TO CARRY. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MAINLY                     
DRIER/COOLER NWLYS PREVAILING THRU THU...WHEN NEXT STROBE OF                    
ENERGY INSERTS SMALL POPS FROM THE WEST...STILL CAUGHT UP IN                    
NWLYS. AFTERWARDS THE CHC SHRIVELS A BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARC HIGH                    
PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR WEST...WHICH ALLOWS SURFACE HIGH OVER GREAT               
LAKES TO PROVIDE WINDS FAVORABLE TO DRY THE PROFILE. THEREFORE                  
ANTICIPATE MAINLY DRY END OF WEEK THRU WEEKEND...F0LLOWING HPC                  
LEAD...WHICH GIVES A RETURN FLOW SMALL CHC POP BY DAY 7 OR 8.                   
TEMPS BUT PARTICULARLY TDS WERE TOUGH AS MODELLING OF COOLER                    
SURFACE TDS NOSING INTO FA IS FALLING SHORT. MAYBE NAM MET MOS/RUC              
HAS A BETTER HANDLE THAN OTHERS WHICH YIELDS A SLIGHTLY                         
COOLER/DRIER APPROACH AKIN TO THE FLOW PATTERN. SO WE USED THAT                 
APPROACH BUT BLENDED WITH THE GOING FORECAST/COLLAB PIC FOR FINAL               
NEAR TERM SOLUTION...WITH MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE NOS A GENERAL                    
HPC/MEX MOS ACCEPTANCE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GIVEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...LEANED STRONGLY TOWARD VFR            
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TUESDAY FOR ALL TAF              
SITES IN THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY LIMITED MENTION OF               
SHOWERS. FOR THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES...DROPPED MENTION OF SHOWERS               
SINCE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS                
WITHIN 10 STATUTE MILES OF THE AIRPORTS WILL BE LOW. IF A SHOWER                
DOES APPEAR TO MOVE TOWARD THESE AIRPORTS...WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.               
FOR THE KEVV/KOWB TAF SITES...THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THIS               
AFTERNOON AND TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS BETWEEN            
00-06Z TUESDAY WARRANTED AN INTERMITTENT /VIA TEMPO/ OR CATEGORICAL             
MENTION /VIA FROM GROUP/ THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z TUESDAY.                          
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME DECENT POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AND COLD              
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE KEVV/KOWB SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO INTRODUCED           
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CEILINGS FOR              
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE                
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CEILINGS...SO LATER FORECASTS MAY REQUIRE SOME             
REVISION.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUMPHREY/SMITH                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
139 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/                                             
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE RATHER             
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SMALL MU CAPES NEAR 100 J/KG REMAIN                 
ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL AS JUXTAPOSITION OF THE STEEPEST LOW AND               
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A MID LEVEL SW/V IS MOVING THROUGH THE OH              
VALLEY. SW PARTS OF THE CWA HAVE CLEARED OUT AND HAVE BECOME MOSTLY             
CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO. INTERPOLATION TAKES THE LAST SHOWER NOW             
OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY OUT OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 4Z AND ADDITIONAL           
ISOLATED -SHRA COULD STILL DEVELOP OVER THE SE SINCE HIGHER DEWPOINTS           
REMAIN THERE. DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST               
COUNTIES AND DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 ATTM. HEIGHTS WILL RISE LATER                
TONIGHT ONCE THE SW/V PASSES AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD              
IN AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY THE 6Z TO 9Z              
TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING IN THE ZFP. WE PLAN TO             
ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATE TO END ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR 4Z.                           
AS FOR FOG...CROSSOVER TEMPS MAY NOT BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS...WITH            
SEVERAL VALLEY AREAS LIKELY ONLY FALLING TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES                 
BELOW. WET GROUND IN MANY AREAS WILL ADD TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. THE              
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES MAY BE MORE FAVORED DUE TO SMALLER INITIAL                
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THE PREVIOUS HWO THAT HIGHLIGHTED LOCALLY DENSE           
FOG HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED AND DID NOT CHANGE.                          
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/                                                 
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE HAD NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THE            
STRONGER STORMS. LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE THE            
HAIL. LAPS AND RUC DATA SHOW CAPES AROUND 500 TO 750 J/KG...WITH LI/S           
-1 TO -3. THE LINE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 4 PM.            
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM                   
REDEVELOPING ALONG A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS               
HINT AT A SUBTLE FEATURE WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA THIS EVENING...SO WILL            
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.              
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...AND WILL           
LIKELY SEE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR                
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD DYNAMICS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS SYSTEM. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH BETWEEN THE WRF AND GFS.            
SIDED CLOSE TO THE STRONGER GFS...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE           
SREF AND NGM. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE             
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THOSE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY IS ALSO NOTED...AS SHOWALTERS DROP TO -1. IF THIS                   
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...THE STRONG SHEAR COULD RESULT IN STRONG               
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TUESDAY...AND WILL                
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROF              
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND           
WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.                 
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                         
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN THE           
LONG TERM. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE LONG WAVE TROFS OVER            
BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN              
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ON WEDNESDAY...A VORT MAX SHOULD BE MOVING JUST              
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE            
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR              
CWA. BY THURSDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE                  
NORTHERN SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER             
COLORADO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR              
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE             
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE EXITS AND H5 RIDGING STRENGTHENS.                
WITH THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND INSTABILITY                     
LACKING...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER. FROM LATER FRIDAY ON THROUGH                
SUNDAY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING                      
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING AT H5 AND THE SURFACE BUILDS IN. THE GFS IS             
FURTHER EAST WITH THE H5 RIDGING...AND BUILDS WARMER AIR IN QUICKER             
THAN THE ECMWF. THE TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER               
RETURN OF WARM AIR...AND WITH THE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF              
THE ECMWF...WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN GFS MOS. STARTED WITH HPC                 
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FROM THERE AGAIN                 
TODAY.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED                                              
SHRA ACTIVITY HAS ENDED FOR ERN KY. SKIES ARE CLEARING RAPIDLY WITH             
JUST ISOLATED MID LEVEL AC LINGERING. EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP OFF AND           
COULD GET NEAR DWPTS JUST BEFORE DAWN ALTHOUGH AT PRESENT THERE IS A            
6-9 DEG SPREAD. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR FOG JUST BEFORE DAWN             
AND WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL UPDATE. FOR NOW ENJOYING MILD TEMPS AND          
LIGHT WINDS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WJM/JP                                                             
LONG TERM....WJM                                                                
AVIATION...DUSTY                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1011 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE RATHER             
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SMALL MU CAPES NEAR 100 J/KG REMAIN                 
ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL AS JUXTAPOSITION OF THE STEEPEST LOW AND               
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A MID LEVEL SW/V IS MOVING THROUGH THE OH              
VALLEY. SW PARTS OF THE CWA HAVE CLEARED OUT AND HAVE BECOME MOSTLY             
CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO. INTERPOLATION TAKES THE LAST SHOWER NOW             
OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY OUT OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 4Z AND ADDITIONAL           
ISOLATED -SHRA COULD STILL DEVELOP OVER THE SE SINCE HIGHER DEWPOINTS           
REMAIN THERE. DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST               
COUNTIES AND DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 ATTM. HEIGHTS WILL RISE LATER                
TONIGHT ONCE THE SW/V PASSES AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD              
IN AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY THE 6Z TO 9Z              
TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING IN THE ZFP. WE PLAN TO             
ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATE TO END ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR 4Z.                           
AS FOR FOG...CROSSOVER TEMPS MAY NOT BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS...WITH            
SEVERAL VALLEY AREAS LIKELY ONLY FALLING TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES                 
BELOW. WET GROUND IN MANY AREAS WILL ADD TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. THE              
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES MAY BE MORE FAVORED DUE TO SMALLER INITIAL                
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THE PREVIOUS HWO THAT HIGHLIGHTED LOCALLY DENSE           
FOG HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED AND DID NOT CHANGE.                          
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/                                                 
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE HAD NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THE            
STRONGER STORMS. LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE THE            
HAIL. LAPS AND RUC DATA SHOW CAPES AROUND 500 TO 750 J/KG...WITH LI/S           
-1 TO -3. THE LINE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 4 PM.            
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM                   
REDEVELOPING ALONG A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS               
HINT AT A SUBTLE FEATURE WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA THIS EVENING...SO WILL            
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.              
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...AND WILL           
LIKELY SEE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR                
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD DYNAMICS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS SYSTEM. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH BETWEEN THE WRF AND GFS.            
SIDED CLOSE TO THE STRONGER GFS...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE           
SREF AND NGM. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE             
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THOSE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY IS ALSO NOTED...AS SHOWALTERS DROP TO -1. IF THIS                   
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...THE STRONG SHEAR COULD RESULT IN STRONG               
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TUESDAY...AND WILL                
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROF              
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND           
WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.                 
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                         
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN THE           
LONG TERM. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE LONG WAVE TROFS OVER            
BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN              
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ON WEDNESDAY...A VORT MAX SHOULD BE MOVING JUST              
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE            
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR              
CWA. BY THURSDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE                  
NORTHERN SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER             
COLORADO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR              
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE             
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE EXITS AND H5 RIDGING STRENGTHENS.                
WITH THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND INSTABILITY                     
LACKING...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER. FROM LATER FRIDAY ON THROUGH                
SUNDAY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING                      
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING AT H5 AND THE SURFACE BUILDS IN. THE GFS IS             
FURTHER EAST WITH THE H5 RIDGING...AND BUILDS WARMER AIR IN QUICKER             
THAN THE ECMWF. THE TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER               
RETURN OF WARM AIR...AND WITH THE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF              
THE ECMWF...WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN GFS MOS. STARTED WITH HPC                 
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FROM THERE AGAIN                 
TODAY.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FROM JKL NORTH FOR THE NEXT               
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND THE ATMOSPHERE                     
STABILIZES. OTHERWISE... FOG IS THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS ISSUANCE.            
DECIDED TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VSBYS/CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS               
RAINFALL WAS NOT THAT WIDESPREAD. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALSO              
ALLOWED THE LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT QUITE WELL. WITH THAT SAID... IFR             
VSBYS LATER TONIGHT REMAIN LIKELY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND FOR                  
LOCATIONS LIKE LOZ WHICH RECEIVED SOME GOOD RAINFALL EARLIER. NEXT              
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TOMORROW WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE SO BELIEVE A VCTS MENTION            
WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME.                                  
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WJM/JP                                                             
LONG TERM....WJM                                                                
AVIATION...ABE                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
734 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/                                   
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE HAD NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THE            
STRONGER STORMS. LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE THE            
HAIL. LAPS AND RUC DATA SHOW CAPES AROUND 500 TO 750 J/KG...WITH LI/S           
-1 TO -3. THE LINE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 4 PM.            
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM                   
REDEVELOPING ALONG A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS               
HINT AT A SUBTLE FEATURE WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA THIS EVENING...SO WILL            
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.              
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...AND WILL           
LIKELY SEE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR                
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD DYNAMICS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS SYSTEM. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH BETWEEN THE WRF AND GFS.            
SIDED CLOSE TO THE STRONGER GFS...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE           
SREF AND NGM. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE             
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THOSE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY IS ALSO NOTED...AS SHOWALTERS DROP TO -1. IF THIS                   
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...THE STRONG SHEAR COULD RESULT IN STRONG               
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TUESDAY...AND WILL                
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROF              
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND           
WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.                 
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                         
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN THE           
LONG TERM. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE LONG WAVE TROFS OVER            
BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN              
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ON WEDNESDAY...A VORT MAX SHOULD BE MOVING JUST              
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE            
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR              
CWA. BY THURSDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE                  
NORTHERN SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER             
COLORADO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR              
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE             
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE EXITS AND H5 RIDGING STRENGTHENS.                
WITH THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND INSTABILITY                     
LACKING...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER. FROM LATER FRIDAY ON THROUGH                
SUNDAY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING                      
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING AT H5 AND THE SURFACE BUILDS IN. THE GFS IS             
FURTHER EAST WITH THE H5 RIDGING...AND BUILDS WARMER AIR IN QUICKER             
THAN THE ECMWF. THE TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER               
RETURN OF WARM AIR...AND WITH THE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF              
THE ECMWF...WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN GFS MOS. STARTED WITH HPC                 
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FROM THERE AGAIN                 
TODAY.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED                                              
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FROM JKL NORTH FOR THE NEXT               
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND THE ATMOSPHERE                     
STABILIZES. OTHERWISE... FOG IS THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS ISSUANCE.            
DECIDED TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VSBYS/CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS               
RAINFALL WAS NOT THAT WIDESPREAD. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALSO              
ALLOWED THE LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT QUITE WELL. WITH THAT SAID... IFR             
VSBYS LATER TONIGHT REMAIN LIKELY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND FOR                  
LOCATIONS LIKE LOZ WHICH RECEIVED SOME GOOD RAINFALL EARLIER. NEXT              
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TOMORROW WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE SO BELIEVE A VCTS MENTION            
WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME.                                  
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WJM                                                                
LONG TERM....WJM                                                                
AVIATION...ABE                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
254 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED                         
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE HAD NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THE            
STRONGER STORMS. LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE THE            
HAIL. LAPS AND RUC DATA SHOW CAPES AROUND 500 TO 750 J/KG...WITH LI/S           
-1 TO -3. THE LINE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 4 PM.            
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM                   
REDEVELOPING ALONG A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS               
HINT AT A SUBTLE FEATURE WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA THIS EVENING...SO WILL            
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.              
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...AND WILL           
LIKELY SEE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR                
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD DYNAMICS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS SYSTEM. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH BETWEEN THE WRF AND GFS.            
SIDED CLOSE TO THE STRONGER GFS...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE           
SREF AND NGM. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE             
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THOSE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY IS ALSO NOTED...AS SHOWALTERS DROP TO -1. IF THIS                   
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...THE STRONG SHEAR COULD RESULT IN STRONG               
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TUESDAY...AND WILL                
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROF              
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND           
WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.                 
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED                               
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN THE           
LONG TERM. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE LONG WAVE TROFS OVER            
BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN              
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ON WEDNESDAY...A VORT MAX SHOULD BE MOVING JUST              
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE            
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR              
CWA. BY THURSDAY...MOISTURE TRIES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE                  
NORTHERN SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER             
COLORADO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR              
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE             
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE EXITS AND H5 RIDGING STRENGTHENS.                
WITH THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND INSTABILITY                     
LACKING...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER. FROM LATER FRIDAY ON THROUGH                
SUNDAY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING                      
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING AT H5 AND THE SURFACE BUILDS IN. THE GFS IS             
FURTHER EAST WITH THE H5 RIDGING...AND BUILDS WARMER AIR IN QUICKER             
THAN THE ECMWF. THE TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER               
RETURN OF WARM AIR...AND WITH THE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF              
THE ECMWF...WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN GFS MOS. STARTED WITH HPC                 
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FROM THERE AGAIN                 
TODAY.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/                                                        
THE ONLY WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM IS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DROPPING THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY JUST             
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THESE CIGS WILL POTENTIALLY DROP INTO             
MVFR ALONG WITH THE VIS FOR A BRIEF TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS            
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT                
VALLEY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE GROUND MOISTURE HELPS COALESCE                   
WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG...BELIEVE THE GRADIENT WINDS ON THE RIDGES                
WILL KEEP THEM CLEAR. THIS VALLEY FOG COULD GET DENSE FOR A TIME                
TOWARD DAWN. HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE TAFS FOR LOZ AND SME. THE FOG           
WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING BEFORE A DECK OF CLOUDS AT AROUND 4K FEET             
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT QUICK HITTING SYSTEM.           
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME              
INTO EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL DIE OFF AND BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT              
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THE WIND THEN PICKS UP               
AGAIN ON MONDAY TWISTING BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY                    
SOUTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WJM                                                                
LONG TERM...WJM                                                                 
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1222 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                 
DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN ON NW WINDS. DEW POINTS AND TEMPS ALL                 
OVER THE PLACE...WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WITHIN 15 TO 25 KTS OF               
FLOW SEEN ON LAPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS UP TO 750MB. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON            
CU MOVG SE ACROSS INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. A VORT PASSING JUST NE OF               
THE REGION ENHANCING THE CU...COULD RESULT IN WK ISOLD CONVECTION.              
THINK THE BETTER CHANCE IS OUT OF OUR CWFA TO OUR NE AND EAST...IF              
IT HAPPENS. EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO GO LIGHT...WITH                     
LINGERING AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE                
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WINDS QUICKLY RESPONDING SSE TO NEXT             
SYSTEM UPSTREAM TOWARD MORNING. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM NE KANSAS            
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM 12-18Z...WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER               
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR CHANCE                
POPS...ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA MONDAY...THEN                   
TRANSITION POPS SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE                   
SURFACE WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION THEN DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT                  
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF                   
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION UPON WEAK SURFACE              
RIDGING. GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THUS USED A                
BLEND OF BOTH MODELS FOR POPS/WX AND WINDS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WAS              
MOSTLY A BLEND OF MAV AND MET FOR TEMPS.                                        
FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS ALONG WITH THE              
00Z ECMWF...AND HPC/S SLANT TOWARD THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN. SEE THE              
PREEPD FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. IN A NUTSHELL...A GRADUAL LONGITUDINAL              
SHIFT EASTWARD IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED MID TROPOSPHERIC                
FLOW PATTERN. BY MID WEEK...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SET UP             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A DEVELOPING TROF/LOW OVER THE WEST                
U.S. AND A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EAST. THIS PATTERN FROM                     
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE ONCE IT                   
BECOMES ESTABLISHED...AS THE MODELS DIG THE WEST TROF INTO SOME                 
ASSEMBLANCE OF A CUTOFF LOW OR ELONGATED TROF...STRENGTHENING THE               
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MID              
LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TOP THE H7/H5 RIDGE AND ACT UPON SOME               
ELEVATED MOISTURE. THUS WE WILL LIKELY CARRY SOME POPS FOR                      
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THINK HPC AND THE ECMWF              
SHOWING A FARTHER SOUTH AXIS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IS MORE CORRECT            
THAN MOSGUIDE AND THE GFS...PLACING THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST                 
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                          
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE CENTRAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES                  
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO              
COVER MUCH OF THE EAST 1/2 OF THE CONUS. THE HIGH WILL DRIVE                    
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND SUPPRESS THE FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. WITH DRIER AIR TIED TO THE MID LEVEL                     
RIDGE...WE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT                    
THROUGH SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING FORECAST NUMBERS AND                   
LATEST HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...IN              
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY WITH                    
SUNSET...THEN TURN TO THE SSE AROUND 12Z. A FEW CU AND SOME HIGH                
CLOUDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ESSENTIALLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TODAY                
THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME MID CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL.               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1245 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                     
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CLEARING TRENDS AND EXITING                         
PRECIPITATION. A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WILL             
EXIT INTO TENNESSEE BY LATE MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS                  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.                             
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF              
THE PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW IT IS MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT LINE                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND            
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.                                   
CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR AT 700MB WILL             
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. WHILE SURFACE HEATING WILL WARM TEMPS              
THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. THE MESO-NAM REFLECTS                
THIS IN ITS FORECAST OF SURFACE BASED LI`S FALLING TO -2 OR -3.                 
EXPECT AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON...THAT CU WILL DEVELOP                      
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS.                
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACTUALLY FORM...WITH THE GREATEST                         
CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE OR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL            
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS             
TODAY. ONE BAND WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 0630Z                
WHILE THE SECOND BAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA BEFORE MORNING. THIRD             
BAND WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND                 
INDIANA AND HAD LIGHT SHOWERS WITH IT...MORE SPOTTY OVER ILLINOIS,              
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS MORNING IS WILL THIS NEXT BAND OF                 
SHOWERS/CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO              
VALLEY.                                                                         
NAM IS DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAD BEEN WITH THE TWO BANDS OF                
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE AREA NOW - BELIEVE NAM IS NOT PICKING UP ENOUGH            
ON THIS SYSTEM. RUC PICKS UP THE SECOND BAND OF PRECIPITATION BUT               
HAS LITTLE AFTER 12Z. GFS SHOWS THE MOST MOISTURE AND WILL LEAN                 
TOWARD A BLEND OF GFS AND RUC FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST.                       
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND BAND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL CLOSE            
TO 12Z...AND PAST 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE THIRD BAND IS THE DRIEST            
AND IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL                  
INSTABILITY FROM COLDER AIR ALOFT BUT THE AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS            
DRY. WILL MENTION SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN                   
DECREASING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST. THE HIGHER POPS WILL            
BE OVER EAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED IN THE WEST AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS              
ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.                                             
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE            
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THEN CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.                  
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN                 
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.                     
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...                                                             
A BROAD AND UNUSUALLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES                
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A                  
SERIES OF JET STREAKS WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH               
WILL SERVE TO SHARPEN IT UP AND BRING A SURFACE LOW OUT OF CENTRAL              
CANADA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT                   
FORECAST IS ON TRACK BUT WE WILL UP POPS FOR THE MONDAY AFTERNOON               
INTO TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO               
MENTION THUNDER ACROSS THIS AREA.                                               
THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER              
AND RAIN CHANCES.  A BACKING WIND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW             
WILL BRING A WARM WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.                                
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...                                                            
BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGING FINALLY REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A             
SFC LOW DEVELOPING THERE TOO. ENSEMBLES AND OPS GFS TRY TO GENERATE             
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THIS LOW OVER OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO              
FRIDAY. WITH THOSE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC...WENT AHEAD AND                
INCLUDED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE             
EURO DOES NOT KEEP THIS PRECIP OVER THE AREA...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH            
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                                        
THE WARM UP LOOKS TO BE DELAYED BECAUSE OF THE SLOW EASTWARD                    
MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SO WENT NEAR ENSEMBLE MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS               
AND LOWS LATE NEXT WEEK...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWS            
IN THE 50S. THINK THE MID 80 HIGHS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                         
COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE            
BY 19Z TO AROUND 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.                              
EXPECT WIDESPREAD CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS              
THE BLUEGRASS REGION. SKIES MAY BECOME BROKEN AT TIMES BETWEEN 20Z              
AND 00Z AT LEX. WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED                
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SDF AND LEX AFTER 21Z AS WELL. CIGS WILL STAY               
VFR EXCEPT WITHIN ONE OF THESE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.                        
SKIES WILL TREND TOWARDS CLEARING AFTER 02Z AND STAY MOSTLY CLEAR               
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL  DIMINISH QUITE            
A BIT TOWARDS 10Z...AND MAY BECOME NEARLY CALM BY 12Z.                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JSD                                                                
LONG TERM....MJ                                                                 
AVIATION.....JSD                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
724 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE OR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL            
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS             
TODAY. ONE BAND WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 0630Z                
WHILE THE SECOND BAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA BEFORE MORNING. THIRD             
BAND WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND                 
INDIANA AND HAD LIGHT SHOWERS WITH IT...MORE SPOTTY OVER ILLINOIS,              
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS MORNING IS WILL THIS NEXT BAND OF                 
SHOWERS/CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO              
VALLEY.                                                                         
NAM IS DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAD BEEN WITH THE TWO BANDS OF                
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE AREA NOW - BELIEVE NAM IS NOT PICKING UP ENOUGH            
ON THIS SYSTEM. RUC PICKS UP THE SECOND BAND OF PRECIPITATION BUT               
HAS LITTLE AFTER 12Z. GFS SHOWS THE MOST MOISTURE AND WILL LEAN                 
TOWARD A BLEND OF GFS AND RUC FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST.                       
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND BAND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL CLOSE            
TO 12Z...AND PAST 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE THIRD BAND IS THE DRIEST            
AND IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL                  
INSTABILITY FROM COLDER AIR ALOFT BUT THE AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS            
DRY. WILL MENTION SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN                   
DECREASING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST. THE HIGHER POPS WILL            
BE OVER EAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED IN THE WEST AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS              
ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.                                             
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE            
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THEN CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.                  
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN                 
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.                     
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...                                                             
A BROAD AND UNUSUALLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES                
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A                  
SERIES OF JET STREAKS WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH               
WILL SERVE TO SHARPEN IT UP AND BRING A SURFACE LOW OUT OF CENTRAL              
CANADA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT                   
FORECAST IS ON TRACK BUT WE WILL UP POPS FOR THE MONDAY AFTERNOON               
INTO TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO               
MENTION THUNDER ACROSS THIS AREA.                                               
THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER              
AND RAIN CHANCES.  A BACKING WIND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW             
WILL BRING A WARM WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.                                
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...                                                            
BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGING FINALLY REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A             
SFC LOW DEVELOPING THERE TOO. ENSEMBLES AND OPS GFS TRY TO GENERATE             
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THIS LOW OVER OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO              
FRIDAY. WITH THOSE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC...WENT AHEAD AND                
INCLUDED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE             
EURO DOES NOT KEEP THIS PRECIP OVER THE AREA...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH            
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                                        
THE WARM UP LOOKS TO BE DELAYED BECAUSE OF THE SLOW EASTWARD                    
MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SO WENT NEAR ENSEMBLE MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS               
AND LOWS LATE NEXT WEEK...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWS            
IN THE 50S. THINK THE MID 80 HIGHS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE                
PERIOD. THE LAST IN A SERIES OF BANDS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WAS                 
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT             
1030Z. THESE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT               
THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE SHOWERS WERE BECOMING                
MORE SPOTTY AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIE SOUTH OF SDF AND LEX BY            
12Z.                                                                            
AS COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY               
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP BUT THESE CLOUDS             
SHOULD BE ABOVE 3 THSD FT. EXCEPT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...VSBYS WILL BE            
UNRESTRICTED. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.                               
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE              
FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOLZ                                                             
LONG TERM....JA                                                                 
AVIATION.....SCHOLZ                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1110 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND               
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                    
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY                 
WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE                    
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE               
WILL BUILD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE A              
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH                   
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE SO FAR. LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS                  
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED EAST OF THE MTNS. ACCORDING TO 12Z KIAD RAOB                 
AND NCEP MODELS...ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR                 
TODAY BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. RUC AND NAM FORECAST THE BEST               
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MTNS...POSSIBLY UP TO 500 J/KG.              
COMBINED WITH SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE               
STORMS EAST OF THE MTNS. 12Z LWX WRF-ARW IMPLIES THIS IN ITS                    
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FIELDS...WITH LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLY                     
FORMING EAST OF THE MTNS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT                
WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH IF MORE INSTABILITY CAN                     
DEVELOP...THEN A SMALL HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL. HAVE ALREADY              
UPDATED GRIDS/PRODUCTS FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR/MODEL               
TRENDS. CHANGES WERE MINIMAL.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...                          
CDFNT WILL EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z-00Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND              
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND FROPA. SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR                
THE HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE...COOL OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT              
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
500MB NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC HEIGHT/ANOMALY FOR THE PAST 5 DAYS                   
INDICATES A PATTERN SHIFT...WITH A DEEP CENTRAL PACIFIC                         
TROUGH...WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...AND A DEVELOPING EASTERN CANADIAN                
TROUGH. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE NEXT WAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST OVER            
THE MIDWEST...AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.            
03Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS A 999MB SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL                            
ILLINOIS...ALONG THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                     
GUSTY WNW WINDS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS COLD              
FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                                
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY             
WITH THE NEXT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS                    
INDICATE ANOTHER CHANCE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE                  
BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY.                                          
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY NEXT WEEKEND...PRESENTING A               
WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
-SHRA AT KMRB THROUGH 18Z...THEN -SHRA/-TSRA AT REMAINING                       
TERMINALS FROM 17Z-21Z. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH                                
THEREAFTER...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS POST FROPA.                                    
GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MONDAY.               
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY WITH RAIN AS THE NEXT WAVE PASSES               
THROUGH.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THIS                       
AFTERNOON. SCA IN EFFECT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HIGHER WINDS /SMW              
CALIBER/ IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.                                       
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MONDAY              
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>537.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BPP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BPP                                                                 
SHORT TERM...LFR                                                                
LONG TERM...SJR                                                                 
AVIATION...BPP/SJR                                                              
MARINE...BPP/SJR                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
155 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE TEMPERATURE                  
POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN              
CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS            
OVER WESTERN U.P. OTHER SHORTWAVES SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF A                    
SOUTHWEST CANADA RIDGE ARE OVER MINNESOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.             
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEP LOW OVER QUEBEC...A RIDGE OVER THE              
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN ONTARIO. A PAIR OF LOWS              
ARE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS               
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN NORTHWEST INTO                
CENTRAL ALBERTA.                                                                
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC TODAY. THE WEAK                     
SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. THE SURFACE RIDGE            
WILL SLIDE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE NORTHERN PART                   
REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR IN THE LOW             
LEVELS WILL BLANKET THE AREA. THUS EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES                 
TO PREVAIL. UNDER AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA                         
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO AROUND 60 WEST AND MID 50S EAST               
AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS WILL               
LIMIT HEATING.                                                                  
A COUPLET OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL ROTATE WITHIN THE LONGWAVE               
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH            
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE            
SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH ALSO SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW OVER            
QUEBEC WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO               
SHOW THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE            
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE              
THROUGH TUESDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE DRY                   
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT...LIMITING LOW LEVEL MIXING.               
SINCE THERE WILL A LITTLE MORE SURFACE HEATING DURING THE DAY TODAY             
AND A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWEEP                  
THROUGH...CHANCES ARE THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL                
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR                
PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. IT IS QUESTIONABLE                  
WHETHER IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THUS               
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON AN ADVISORY AND SEE REEVALUATE LATER TODAY.            
THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY            
3. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY               
QUEBEC LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEP             
MOISTURE AREA WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.                     
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE THE RIDGE            
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONLY AREAS OVER THE FAR                
EAST COULD GET A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER            
PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN               
PART OF THE U.P. WILL CONTINUE TO BE VULNERABLE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE               
GOING. MEANWHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL CANADA             
RUNNING UP AGAINST THE STATION LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER QUEBEC. ANOTHER             
LOW WILL DIG OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BRITISH                    
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST END OF UPPER MICHIGAN                
WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT ONLY INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. DRY              
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH              
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PACKAGE. A BKN LAYER                  
AROUND 5-6 KFT THAT FORMED SOUTHWEST OF LAKE NIPIGON IS MOVING                  
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE KEWEENAW...EXPECT THIS DECK TO REACH CMX AROUND            
00Z AND SAW A BIT LATER AND THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE. LAKE                 
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS MOVED INTO SAW...THIS SHOULD LAST FOR THE              
NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS BEFORE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN AND                   
DIMINISH. WINDS WILL PICKUP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WEAK TROUGH PASSES            
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED                
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...EXPECT HIGH                
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF               
THE WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL GENERALLY BE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND             
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...PEARSON                                                              
MARINE...JV                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
110 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1009 AM)...                                                  
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW               
SHOWERS WHERE DENSE CLOUDS HAS SETTLED IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE                   
WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE TO              
ABOVE 38...WITH ONLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 1530Z.                         
KMQT 88D RADAR REMAINS DOWN...AS TECHNICIANS AWAIT A PART THAT WILL             
BE ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THIS TIME...THE RADAR IS EXPECTED TO            
BE BACK UP LATER TODAY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY               
AND CHANCE OF FROST TONIGHT.                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL              
ONTARIO EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A LARGE              
RIDGE IS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING DOWN             
THE LEE OF THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS            
DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER OHIO THROUGH THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS TO A LOW OVER ALBERTA. A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                                
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MANITOBA TODAY PUSHING               
AGAINST THE LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER EAST CENTRAL                  
ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. THE LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN                 
SASKATCHEWAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP            
OVER THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. BY NOON TODAY.  A                  
STRONG INVERSION AROUND 825MB WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY                    
PRECIPITATION FALLS FROM THE CU...IT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE LOW LEVEL            
DRY AIR AS THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG INVERTED V PATTERN EXCEPT             
OF THE EAST END OF THE CWA. THUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HEATING.              
TRAJECTORY FORECAST IS PULLING THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS LOOKING FOR COOLER CONDITIONS                
TODAY. MOS DOES FAIRLY WELL UNDER THESE CONDITIONS SO WILL FOLLOW               
GUIDANCE. THE INVERTED V WOULD ALSO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN             
TODAY.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT WHILE             
THE RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL START TO SHIFT INTO            
THE WESTERN U.P. DRY AIR WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE                 
EXPANDING INTO THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE             
AREA TONIGHT. THUS LOOKING FOR CLEARING. WINDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF.              
WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...LIGHTER             
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE...AND CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE              
FOR SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS TEMPERATURE WILL DROP TO              
AROUND 29F OVER THE WEST AND LOW 30S EAST. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN               
ORDER.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MANITOBA WILL BREAKDOWN ON MONDAY WHILE THE            
WEST END OF THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW               
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC. A SECONDARY LOW              
WILL DEVELOP AS A COUPLET WITH THE FIRST LOW AND WILL REACH JAMES               
BAY ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE            
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL REACH                
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH JUST             
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                               
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE INTO THE WEST END OF THE                
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE            
WILL SLIDE DOWN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE LOWER              
MICHIGAN. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW                  
CENTER WILL ALSO SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH               
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST END OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN               
ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS             
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND PUSH INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.                              
THE NORTHERN COUPLET THAT WAS OVER JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO EAST              
CENTRAL ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW            
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE            
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS                
PLAN TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES             
ONLY IN THE MORNING. AS DRY AIR MOVES BY LATE MORNING WILL LOW POPS             
FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY TUESDAY              
NIGHT WHILE DIRECTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER                     
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER LOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND            
SOUTHWEST CANADA.                                                               
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN ON                  
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN             
SPITE OF THE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA CONDITIONS WILL                
REMAIN DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THE SOUNDINGS            
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN            
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED AT CMX...WITH THE POSSIBILITY                   
REMAINING A LITTLE LONGER AT SAW UNDER BROKEN MVFR DECK.                        
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT BE SNOW DUE TO TEMPS NOW              
ABOVE 40. EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KTS TO DIMINISH            
TO AROUND 10KT OR LESS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE PICKING UP                 
AGAIN TO AROUND 20KT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. FEW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED             
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCT VARIETY AS SEEN UPSTREAM.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
CAA IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT WILL CAUSE            
DECREASED STABILITY TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 30 KT OVER              
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS            
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO               
THE AREA ON MON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
   FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT              
       /7AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>015-084-085.                         
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KF                                                                     
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1009 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW               
SHOWERS WHERE DENSE CLOUDS HAS SETTLED IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE                   
WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE TO              
ABOVE 38...WITH ONLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 1530Z.                         
KMQT 88D RADAR REMAINS DOWN...AS TECHNICIANS AWAIT A PART THAT WILL             
BE ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THIS TIME...THE RADAR IS EXPECTED TO            
BE BACK UP LATER TODAY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY               
AND CHANCE OF FROST TONIGHT.                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL              
ONTARIO EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A LARGE              
RIDGE IS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING DOWN             
THE LEE OF THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS            
DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER OHIO THROUGH THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS TO A LOW OVER ALBERTA. A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                                
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MANITOBA TODAY PUSHING               
AGAINST THE LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER EAST CENTRAL                  
ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. THE LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN                 
SASKATCHEWAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP            
OVER THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. BY NOON TODAY.  A                  
STRONG INVERSION AROUND 825MB WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY                    
PRECIPITATION FALLS FROM THE CU...IT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE LOW LEVEL            
DRY AIR AS THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG INVERTED V PATTERN EXCEPT             
OF THE EAST END OF THE CWA. THUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HEATING.              
TRAJECTORY FORECAST IS PULLING THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS LOOKING FOR COOLER CONDITIONS                
TODAY. MOS DOES FAIRLY WELL UNDER THESE CONDITIONS SO WILL FOLLOW               
GUIDANCE. THE INVERTED V WOULD ALSO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN             
TODAY.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT WHILE             
THE RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL START TO SHIFT INTO            
THE WESTERN U.P. DRY AIR WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE                 
EXPANDING INTO THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE             
AREA TONIGHT. THUS LOOKING FOR CLEARING. WINDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF.              
WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...LIGHTER             
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE...AND CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE              
FOR SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS TEMPERATURE WILL DROP TO              
AROUND 29F OVER THE WEST AND LOW 30S EAST. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN               
ORDER.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MANITOBA WILL BREAKDOWN ON MONDAY WHILE THE            
WEST END OF THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW               
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC. A SECONDARY LOW              
WILL DEVELOP AS A COUPLET WITH THE FIRST LOW AND WILL REACH JAMES               
BAY ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE            
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL REACH                
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH JUST             
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                               
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE INTO THE WEST END OF THE                
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE            
WILL SLIDE DOWN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE LOWER              
MICHIGAN. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW                  
CENTER WILL ALSO SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH               
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST END OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN               
ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS             
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND PUSH INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.                              
THE NORTHERN COUPLET THAT WAS OVER JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO EAST              
CENTRAL ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW            
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE            
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS                
PLAN TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES             
ONLY IN THE MORNING. AS DRY AIR MOVES BY LATE MORNING WILL LOW POPS             
FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY TUESDAY              
NIGHT WHILE DIRECTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER                     
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER LOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND            
SOUTHWEST CANADA.                                                               
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN ON                  
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN             
SPITE OF THE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA CONDITIONS WILL                
REMAIN DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THE SOUNDINGS            
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN            
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR DECK TO LIFT OR SCT OUT BY LATE MORNING AT BOTH              
TAF SITES. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS             
AROUND 25 KTS AT BOTH PLACES. EXPECT KSAW WINDS TO BE SLIGHTLY                  
STRONGER WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT THERE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BLO 10 KT             
BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL COMPONENT.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
CAA IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT WILL CAUSE            
DECREASED STABILITY TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 30 KT OVER              
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS            
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO               
THE AREA ON MON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
   FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT              
       /7AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>015-084-085.                         
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KF                                                                     
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
748 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY               
AND CHANCE OF FROST TONIGHT.                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL              
ONTARIO EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A LARGE              
RIDGE IS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING DOWN             
THE LEE OF THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS            
DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER OHIO THROUGH THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS TO A LOW OVER ALBERTA. A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                                
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MANITOBA TODAY PUSHING               
AGAINST THE LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER EAST CENTRAL                  
ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. THE LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN                 
SASKATCHEWAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP            
OVER THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. BY NOON TODAY.  A                  
STRONG INVERSION AROUND 825MB WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY                    
PRECIPITATION FALLS FROM THE CU...IT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE LOW LEVEL            
DRY AIR AS THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG INVERTED V PATTERN EXCEPT             
OF THE EAST END OF THE CWA. THUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HEATING.              
TRAJECTORY FORECAST IS PULLING THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS LOOKING FOR COOLER CONDITIONS                
TODAY. MOS DOES FAIRLY WELL UNDER THESE CONDITIONS SO WILL FOLLOW               
GUIDANCE. THE INVERTED V WOULD ALSO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN             
TODAY.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT WHILE             
THE RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL START TO SHIFT INTO            
THE WESTERN U.P. DRY AIR WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE                 
EXPANDING INTO THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE             
AREA TONIGHT. THUS LOOKING FOR CLEARING. WINDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF.              
WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...LIGHTER             
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE...AND CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE              
FOR SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS TEMPERATURE WILL DROP TO              
AROUND 29F OVER THE WEST AND LOW 30S EAST. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN               
ORDER.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MANITOBA WILL BREAKDOWN ON MONDAY WHILE THE            
WEST END OF THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW               
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC. A SECONDARY LOW              
WILL DEVELOP AS A COUPLET WITH THE FIRST LOW AND WILL REACH JAMES               
BAY ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE            
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL REACH                
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH JUST             
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                               
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE INTO THE WEST END OF THE                
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE            
WILL SLIDE DOWN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE LOWER              
MICHIGAN. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW                  
CENTER WILL ALSO SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH               
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST END OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN               
ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS             
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND PUSH INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.                              
THE NORTHERN COUPLET THAT WAS OVER JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO EAST              
CENTRAL ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW            
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE            
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS                
PLAN TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES             
ONLY IN THE MORNING. AS DRY AIR MOVES BY LATE MORNING WILL LOW POPS             
FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY TUESDAY              
NIGHT WHILE DIRECTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER                     
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER LOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND            
SOUTHWEST CANADA.                                                               
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN ON                  
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN             
SPITE OF THE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA CONDITIONS WILL                
REMAIN DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THE SOUNDINGS            
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN            
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR DECK TO LIFT OR SCT OUT BY LATE MORNING AT BOTH              
TAF SITES. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS             
AROUND 25 KTS AT BOTH PLACES. EXPECT KSAW WINDS TO BE SLIGHTLY                  
STRONGER WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT THERE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BLO 10 KT             
BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL COMPONENT.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
CAA IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT WILL CAUSE            
DECREASED STABILITY TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 30 KT OVER              
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS            
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO               
THE AREA ON MON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
   FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT              
       /7AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>015-084-085.                         
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY               
AND CHANCE OF FROST TONIGHT.                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL              
ONTARIO EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A LARGE              
RIDGE IS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING DOWN             
THE LEE OF THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS            
DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER OHIO THROUGH THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS TO A LOW OVER ALBERTA. A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                                
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MANITOBA TODAY PUSHING               
AGAINST THE LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER EAST CENTRAL                  
ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. THE LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN                 
SASKATCHEWAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP            
OVER THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. BY NOON TODAY.  A                  
STRONG INVERSION AROUND 825MB WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY                    
PRECIPITATION FALLS FROM THE CU...IT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE LOW LEVEL            
DRY AIR AS THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG INVERTED V PATTERN EXCEPT             
OF THE EAST END OF THE CWA. THUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HEATING.              
TRAJECTORY FORECAST IS PULLING THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS LOOKING FOR COOLER CONDITIONS                
TODAY. MOS DOES FAIRLY WELL UNDER THESE CONDITIONS SO WILL FOLLOW               
GUIDANCE. THE INVERTED V WOULD ALSO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN             
TODAY.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT WHILE             
THE RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL START TO SHIFT INTO            
THE WESTERN U.P. DRY AIR WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE                 
EXPANDING INTO THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE             
AREA TONIGHT. THUS LOOKING FOR CLEARING. WINDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF.              
WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...LIGHTER             
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE...AND CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE              
FOR SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS TEMPERATURE WILL DROP TO              
AROUND 29F OVER THE WEST AND LOW 30S EAST. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN               
ORDER.                                                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MANITOBA WILL BREAKDOWN ON MONDAY WHILE THE            
WEST END OF THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW               
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO QUEBEC. A SECONDARY LOW              
WILL DEVELOP AS A COUPLET WITH THE FIRST LOW AND WILL REACH JAMES               
BAY ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE            
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL REACH                
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH JUST             
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                               
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE INTO THE WEST END OF THE                
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE            
WILL SLIDE DOWN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE LOWER              
MICHIGAN. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW                  
CENTER WILL ALSO SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH               
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST END OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN               
ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS             
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND PUSH INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.                              
THE NORTHERN COUPLET THAT WAS OVER JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO EAST              
CENTRAL ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW            
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE            
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS                
PLAN TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES             
ONLY IN THE MORNING. AS DRY AIR MOVES BY LATE MORNING WILL LOW POPS             
FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY TUESDAY              
NIGHT WHILE DIRECTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER                     
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER LOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND            
SOUTHWEST CANADA.                                                               
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN ON                  
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN             
SPITE OF THE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA CONDITIONS WILL                
REMAIN DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THE SOUNDINGS            
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN            
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH PLACES. WIND            
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE AT KSAW OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS OFF            
THE SURFACE. BOTH PLACES WILL MIX DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE             
AS CONDITIONS BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
CAA IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT WILL CAUSE            
DECREASED STABILITY TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 30 KT OVER              
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS            
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO               
THE AREA ON MON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
   FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT              
       /7AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>015-084-085.                         
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
127 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN            
ONTARIO BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY LEAVING FAST CYCLONIC               
WNW FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHRA/TSRA            
WITH NMRS SMALL HAIL REPORTS HAD EXITED THE CWA TO NEAR THE STRAITS.            
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO (JUST NW OF CYQT) WAS PIVOTING                
TOWARD THE CWA. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED S OF JAMES BAY                
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST TO NEAR KINL. EVEN WITH DRY             
LOW LEVELS...SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 30S OR LOWER...SUFFICIENT               
SFC HEATING WITH COLD MID LEVELS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM             
LED TO MLCAPE VALUES TO 300-500 J/KG. THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH              
HAS SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER NE MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.             
VERY GUSTY WINDS AOA 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH EVEN THE NON                
TSTM SHOWERS OVER NE MN AND AT ROAM ON ISLE ROYALE AS DEEP (INVERTED            
V) WELL MIXED LAYER WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL HAS ALSO                    
PARTIALLY TAPPED 50 KT 5K FT WINDS...PER KDLH VAD WIND PRFL.                    
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI AS THE                     
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG                
WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE STRONGER            
SHRA OR TSRA DEVELOP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND HEATING                   
SUBSIDES THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH. ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL             
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY WEAK TRAILING SHORTWAVES. MODELS                 
SUGGEST THE COLD POOL AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE FAR               
ERN CWA LEAVING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF UPPER MI.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
FROST STILL LOOKS TO BE A CONCERNED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING            
OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND CLOUD EXIT AND COOLER AIR              
TAKES HOLD.                                                                     
ONE OF THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES INFLUENCING WAVES WILL            
EXIT THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  THE 17/00Z CANADIAN RUN IS            
TRYING TO ALLOW YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN                
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS IS LIKELY THE SAME WAVE THAT IS INDICATED              
BY THE NAM AND GFS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE SAME AREA.  WILL STAY CLOSE            
TO NAM AND GFS...WITH POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.                
RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND TROUGH IN THE EAST.  THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN            
TO CHANGE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE WEST                   
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.  AT THIS                   
TIME...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH LINGERING              
CLOUDS EAST HEADING OUT.  HOWEVER...WITH WINDS STILL FROM A                     
NORTHERLY DIRECTION WE WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN JUST AROUND NORMAL              
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.  LOWERED DEW POINTS QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY.           
THE CURRENT TREND OF THE MODELS IS TO THEN KEEP THIS RIDGE OVER THE             
CWA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH IF NOT DRY WEATHER...DRIER WEATHER THAN             
WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED AS OF LATE.  THIS IS A SLOWER SOLUTION                
THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WHEN THE GFS WAS INDICATING A QUICKER BREAKDOWN             
OF THIS RIDGE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH PLACES. WIND            
SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE AT KSAW OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS OFF            
THE SURFACE. BOTH PLACES WILL MIX DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE             
AS CONDITIONS BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A TROUGH OR SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR                
TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND INCREASING CAA. DECREASING STABILITY             
AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING             
NW TO N WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO             
THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
925 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.                            
BATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE                 
EVENING. ONE LARGE SCALE BATCH OF CLOUDS WAS MOVING ACROSS                      
KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTIES AS OF 9 PM. THIS                  
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.                   
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED FAIRLY QUICKLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE TEMPORARILY                
CLEARED OUT...SUCH AS NEAR BRAINERD AND AITKIN. HAVE UPDATED TO ADD             
PATCHY FROST TO ALL ZONES. MAY NEED TO UPDATE AGAIN TO ADD FROST                
ADVISORY. THE MAIN CAVEAT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST IS THE TIGHTENING                
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD KEEP SOME AREAS FROM RECEIVING                   
FROST...WHILE AREAS THAT SEE WINDS DECOUPLE MAY SEE THE FROST.                  
OTHER THAN THAT...WILL WORD ZONES WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVERALL                
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWING POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD              
THROUGH MN. RATHER ROBUST H85 - H70 FGEN FORCING AND UVV BEING                  
DEPICTED IN RUC CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS OUR SW ZONES. MOD RAIN HAS                
FALLEN IN A LINE FROM LONGVILLE TO AITKIN TO WEBSTER...WITH SOME                
SPRINKLES AS FAR NE AS CLOQUET EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. DRY LOLVL                
AIR FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND POINTS NW WITH TIGHT NW TO SE GRADIENT              
IN THE SHOWERS WILL PREVENT THE ACTIVITY FROM MOVING ANY FARTHER                
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA BY 00Z...TAKING WITH IT ANY                     
REMAINING SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR PINWHEELS SOUTH                     
AROUND MASSIVE VORTEX CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY...KEEPING TEMPS                   
COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY                  
FROST TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT              
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...TD DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE ON              
THE ORDER OF 5+ DEGREES OVERNIGHT. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO                   
MONITOR THIS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY               
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY.             
A BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST EXISTS OVERNIGHT TUES...AND WED MORNING               
AS WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT.                                                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN                      
CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS               
WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. H50 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS...WITH MOST              
AREAS INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY. LARGE TEMP GRADIENT MAY DEVELOP IN              
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR HOWEVER...KEEPING TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY                  
COOLER HERE. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES NOT UNTIL THE SECOND                 
HALF OF THE WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN                   
MINNESOTA PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT.  RAIN SHOWERS WILL            
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22-23 UTC ALONG A LINE FROM BEMIDJI AND PARK             
RAPIDS IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF HAYWARD IN               
THE SOUTHEAST.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL              
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS MAY            
BE POSSIBLE AT KBRD THROUGH 22 UTC. WINDS WILL BECOME                           
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR                           
OVERNIGHT...AND MORE SO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE A              
BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN             
THE DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH.                                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  37  59  35  57 /  10  10  10  10                                           
INL  36  58  33  57 /  10  10  10  10                                           
BRD  39  63  37  63 /  10  10  10  10                                           
HYR  36  61  32  61 /  10  10  10  10                                           
ASX  37  56  35  57 /  10  10  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
326 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWING POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD              
THROUGH MN. RATHER ROBUST H85 - H70 FGEN FORCING AND UVV BEING                  
DEPICTED IN RUC CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS OUR SW ZONES. MOD RAIN HAS                
FALLEN IN A LINE FROM LONGVILLE TO AITKIN TO WEBSTER...WITH SOME                
SPRINKLES AS FAR NE AS CLOQUET EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. DRY LOLVL                
AIR FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND POINTS NW WITH TIGHT NW TO SE GRADIENT              
IN THE SHOWERS WILL PREVENT THE ACTIVITY FROM MOVING ANY FARTHER                
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA BY 00Z...TAKING WITH IT ANY                     
REMAINING SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR PINWHEELS SOUTH                     
AROUND MASSIVE VORTEX CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY...KEEPING TEMPS                   
COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY                  
FROST TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT              
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...TD DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE ON              
THE ORDER OF 5+ DEGREES OVERNIGHT. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO                   
MONITOR THIS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY               
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY.             
A BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST EXISTS OVERNIGHT TUES...AND WED MORNING               
AS WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT.                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN                      
CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS               
WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. H50 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS...WITH MOST              
AREAS INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY. LARGE TEMP GRADIENT MAY DEVELOP IN              
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR HOWEVER...KEEPING TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY                  
COOLER HERE. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES NOT UNTIL THE SECOND                 
HALF OF THE WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN                   
MINNESOTA PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT.  RAIN SHOWERS WILL            
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22-23 UTC ALONG A LINE FROM BEMIDJI AND PARK             
RAPIDS IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF HAYWARD IN               
THE SOUTHEAST.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL              
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS MAY            
BE POSSIBLE AT KBRD THROUGH 22 UTC. WINDS WILL BECOME                           
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR                           
OVERNIGHT...AND MORE SO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE A              
BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN             
THE DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH.                                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  37  59  35  57 /  10  10  10  10                                           
INL  36  58  33  57 /  10  10  10  10                                           
BRD  39  63  37  63 /  20  10  10  10                                           
HYR  36  61  32  61 /  10  10  10  10                                           
ASX  37  56  35  57 /  10  10  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LONKA/DONOFRIO                                                                  
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
930 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPGRADED TO SCATTERED WORDING IN RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS               
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...AS RADAR TRENDS AND OBS SHOWING SHOWERS                
BEGINNING JUST WEST OF THE BRD AND CASS LAKES AREAS. LATEST RUC                 
SNDGS STILL SHOWING SIG DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE CWA                 
THIS AFTERNOON... SO SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO JUST THE                 
SRN AND WRN ZONES. TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD ATTM.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008/                         
UPDATE...CANCEL FROST ADVISORY                                                  
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.                 
LARGE T/TD SPREADS HAVE LIMITED FROST.                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CHILLY MORNING ACROSS CWA AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED INTO UPPER 20S ACROSS            
INTERIOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF RANGE/ARROWHEAD.                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED UNDER SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT                
WIND AND CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS APPROACHING                 
SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS TREK FROM CTRL SASK SOUTHEASTWARD.                          
TODAY/TONIGHT...INSPECTION OF MDL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED CONFIDENCE              
THAT A NARROW AREA OF FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER MAINLY SWRN CWA TODAY.            
CURRENT AREA OF MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH THE UVV SUPPLIED             
BY THE SHORTWAVE... NOT GENERATING MUCH PRECIP AT THIS TIME AS IT               
MOVES ACROSS ERN ND DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. RUC80 FCST OF             
THIS FRONTOGENESIS PUSHES IT ACROSS SWRN CWA MAINLY FROM CASS COUNTY            
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PINE COUNTY TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT LL BDRY TO ACT              
UPON TO DEEPEN CONVERGENCE ZONE. FCST UPPER JET CORE WITH LF UVV                
REGION IS POISED TO AFFECT MPX CWA MORE THAN DLH SO NOT ANTICIPATING            
A LOT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. SREF PROBABILITIES OF AMNTS                   
GREATER THAN .25" ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. LL DRY AIR SHOULD DO A              
GOOD JOB OF ELIMINATING/REDUCING CHANCES OF RAIN FARTHER EAST.                  
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SO EXPECT CLEARING TO PUSH              
ACROSS BY 12Z TUESDAY.                                                          
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT FORCING/PRECIP                
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY             
MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. EC IS AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING A LARGE AREA OF            
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ERN CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE USED               
MDL CONSENSUS ON KEEPING CLOUDS MAINLY EAST. GIVEN LARGE OMEGA BLOCK            
DEVELOPING...THIS MAY NEED UPDATING TO SIDE MORE WITH EC.                       
EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING                   
MDT/STRONG AGREEMENT ON PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL               
MODERATION IN SFC TEMPS THROUGH WEEK AND LITTLE/NO OPPORTUNITY FOR              
PRECIP. CWA UNDERNEATH LARGE MID LVL HIGH AS OMEGA BLOCK STRENGTHENS.           
CONSIDERABLE TEMP DIFFERENCES MAY DEVELOP AS LAKE BREEZE KEEPS                  
NEARSHORE COOLER THROUGH WEEK WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WARM. 85H TEMPS            
THIS WEEKEND ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO MAY SEE SOME SERIOUS WARMING.            
AVIATION...                                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                        
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN                   
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID              
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE              
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS           
SYSTEM PASSES. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL               
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS MAY            
BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING KBRD...FROM ROUGHLY                    
20Z-01Z. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS                   
THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  57  38  59  37 /  10  10  10  10                                           
INL  63  37  58  33 /  10  10  10  10                                           
BRD  56  40  62  38 /  50  20  10  10                                           
HYR  62  36  62  35 /  20  30  20  10                                           
ASX  59  37  57  36 /  10  10  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
TL/KD                                                                           
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
626 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...CANCEL FROST ADVISORY                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.                 
LARGE T/TD SPREADS HAVE LIMITED FROST.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CHILLY MORNING ACROSS CWA AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED INTO UPPER 20S ACROSS            
INTERIOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF RANGE/ARROWHEAD.                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED UNDER SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT                
WIND AND CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS APPROACHING                 
SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS TREK FROM CTRL SASK SOUTHEASTWARD.                          
TODAY/TONIGHT...INSPECTION OF MDL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED CONFIDENCE              
THAT A NARROW AREA OF FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER MAINLY SWRN CWA TODAY.            
CURRENT AREA OF MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH THE UVV SUPPLIED             
BY THE SHORTWAVE... NOT GENERATING MUCH PRECIP AT THIS TIME AS IT               
MOVES ACROSS ERN ND DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. RUC80 FCST OF             
THIS FRONTOGENESIS PUSHES IT ACROSS SWRN CWA MAINLY FROM CASS COUNTY            
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PINE COUNTY TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT LL BDRY TO ACT              
UPON TO DEEPEN CONVERGENCE ZONE. FCST UPPER JET CORE WITH LF UVV                
REGION IS POISED TO AFFECT MPX CWA MORE THAN DLH SO NOT ANTICIPATING            
A LOT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. SREF PROBABILITIES OF AMNTS                   
GREATER THAN .25" ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. LL DRY AIR SHOULD DO A              
GOOD JOB OF ELIMINATING/REDUCING CHANCES OF RAIN FARTHER EAST.                  
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SO EXPECT CLEARING TO PUSH              
ACROSS BY 12Z TUESDAY.                                                          
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT FORCING/PRECIP                
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY             
MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. EC IS AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING A LARGE AREA OF            
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ERN CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE USED               
MDL CONSENSUS ON KEEPING CLOUDS MAINLY EAST. GIVEN LARGE OMEGA BLOCK            
DEVELOPING...THIS MAY NEED UPDATING TO SIDE MORE WITH EC.                       
EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING                   
MDT/STRONG AGREEMENT ON PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL               
MODERATION IN SFC TEMPS THROUGH WEEK AND LITTLE/NO OPPORTUNITY FOR              
PRECIP. CWA UNDERNEATH LARGE MID LVL HIGH AS OMEGA BLOCK STRENGTHENS.           
CONSIDERABLE TEMP DIFFERENCES MAY DEVELOP AS LAKE BREEZE KEEPS                  
NEARSHORE COOLER THROUGH WEEK WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WARM. 85H TEMPS            
THIS WEEKEND ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO MAY SEE SOME SERIOUS WARMING.            
AVIATION...                                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                        
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN                   
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID              
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE              
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS           
SYSTEM PASSES. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL               
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS MAY            
BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING KBRD...FROM ROUGHLY                    
20Z-01Z. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS                   
THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  57  38  59  37 /  10  10  10  10                                           
INL  63  37  58  33 /  20  10  10  10                                           
BRD  56  40  62  38 /  50  20  10  10                                           
HYR  62  36  62  35 /  20  30  20  10                                           
ASX  59  37  57  36 /  10  10  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON/BETTWY                                                                   
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
326 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CHILLY MORNING ACROSS CWA AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED INTO UPPER 20S ACROSS            
INTERIOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF RANGE/ARROWHEAD.                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED UNDER SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT                
WIND AND CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS APPROACHING                 
SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS TREK FROM CTRL SASK SOUTHEASTWARD.                          
TODAY/TONIGHT...INSPECTION OF MDL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED CONFIDENCE              
THAT A NARROW AREA OF FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER MAINLY SWRN CWA TODAY.            
CURRENT AREA OF MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH THE UVV SUPPLIED             
BY THE SHORTWAVE... NOT GENERATING MUCH PRECIP AT THIS TIME AS IT               
MOVES ACROSS ERN ND DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. RUC80 FCST OF             
THIS FRONTOGENESIS PUSHES IT ACROSS SWRN CWA MAINLY FROM CASS COUNTY            
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PINE COUNTY TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT LL BDRY TO ACT              
UPON TO DEEPEN CONVERGENCE ZONE. FCST UPPER JET CORE WITH LF UVV                
REGION IS POISED TO AFFECT MPX CWA MORE THAN DLH SO NOT ANTICIPATING            
A LOT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. SREF PROBABILITIES OF AMNTS                   
GREATER THAN .25" ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. LL DRY AIR SHOULD DO A              
GOOD JOB OF ELIMINATING/REDUCING CHANCES OF RAIN FARTHER EAST.                  
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SO EXPECT CLEARING TO PUSH              
ACROSS BY 12Z TUESDAY.                                                          
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT FORCING/PRECIP                
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY             
MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. EC IS AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING A LARGE AREA OF            
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ERN CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE USED               
MDL CONSENSUS ON KEEPING CLOUDS MAINLY EAST. GIVEN LARGE OMEGA BLOCK            
DEVELOPING...THIS MAY NEED UPDATING TO SIDE MORE WITH EC.                       
EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING                   
MDT/STRONG AGREEMENT ON PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL               
MODERATION IN SFC TEMPS THROUGH WEEK AND LITTLE/NO OPPORTUNITY FOR              
PRECIP. CWA UNDERNEATH LARGE MID LVL HIGH AS OMEGA BLOCK STRENGTHENS.           
CONSIDERABLE TEMP DIFFERENCES MAY DEVELOP AS LAKE BREEZE KEEPS                  
NEARSHORE COOLER THROUGH WEEK WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WARM. 85H TEMPS            
THIS WEEKEND ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO MAY SEE SOME SERIOUS WARMING.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                        
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN                   
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID              
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE              
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS           
SYSTEM PASSES. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL               
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS MAY            
BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING KBRD...FROM ROUGHLY                    
20Z-01Z. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS                   
THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  57  38  59  37 /  10  10  10  10                                           
INL  63  37  58  33 /  20  10  10  10                                           
BRD  56  40  62  38 /  50  20  10  10                                           
HYR  62  36  62  35 /  20  30  20  10                                           
ASX  59  37  57  36 /  10  10  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN            
     ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-                   
     NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST.                   
     LOUIS-PINE-SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN                
     ITASCA-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                            
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-           
     BURNETT-DOUGLAS-IRON-PRICE-SAWYER-WASHBURN.                                
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON/BETTWY                                                                   
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1128 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
/904 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008/                                                    
UPDATED FORECAST TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE NRN CWA THROUGH                
07Z BASED ON AREA OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS               
SERN IA. THIS AREA CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE RUC/NAM 925-850MB                  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E DECPICTION WHICH FADES AFTER 06Z...SO              
HAVE KEPT SAME LOW CHC POP CONFINED TO THE ERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.                
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK                 
GOOD.                                                                           
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/341 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008/                                                    
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NWLY FLOW AT H500 THRU THURSDAY. ONLY A            
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES OF NOTE TO TRACK IN THIS FLOW...WITH THE                 
FIRST MOVING THRU TONIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS NOW                
MOVING THRU THE FA NOW. THE OTHER WILL BE A SHEARED VORTICITY MAX               
THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE NERN FA THRU TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LO             
PRES OVER THE SRN FA ATTM WILL TRACK EWD...AND DRAG A CDFNT ACROSS              
THE SRN FA EARLY THIS EVENING. TROFINESS IN THE ERN FA AND FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN FA WILL LINGER THRU TUESDAY. SFC HI PRES RIDGE            
WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ELY             
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SFC RIDGE                 
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY.                                                              
FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...MID 50S DEWPOINTS NOW HAVE PUSHED JUST                 
AHEAD OF SFC LO PRES...AND WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE NOTED...MAY BE               
ABLE TO POP A TSRA OR TWO OVER THE SERN FA BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY                 
EXITS.                                                                          
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE                  
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE NW...BUT FIRST SYSTEM THAT              
IS EXITING THE SRN FA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SCOUR THE LOWER AMS OF            
MOISTURE AND THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED. ONLY                
HAVE LOW POPS IN FOR PRIMARILY THE NERN FA...WHERE BEST LIFT WILL               
BE.                                                                             
FOR TUESDAY...NAM CONSISTENT IN KICKING PCPN OUT FOR THE CNTRL/ERN              
FA...BUT I AM SKEPTICAL ON THIS. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED AND MAIN            
LIFT...WHAT LITTLE THERE IS...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE SERN FA.              
STILL...NAM CONSISTENCY IS STILL BOTHERSOME. HAVE PLACED SLIGHT                 
CHANCES IN FOR THE ERN/SERN FA.                                                 
SHOULD THEN SEE A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE                 
GRADIENT OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO EDGE BACK INTO CNTRL/SERN MO BY                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. H850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WAA ALSO            
INCREASES IN THIS AREA AS FRONTAL ZONE DEEPENS...AND SO HAVE                    
THEREFORE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.                                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOB NORMAL THRU MID WEEK AS NLY AND ELY FLOW FROM             
FRONTS AND BUILDING SFC RIDGES KEEP THE HEAT AWAY.                              
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...MODELS REMAIN IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H500 HI-AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE                 
FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN IN                 
AMPLITUDE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS ADVERTISES THE GREATEST                  
BREAKDOWN IN THIS RIDGE...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS OF              
MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF HAS LEAD IN SHOWING THE RIDGE HANGING TOUGH              
THE LONGEST...AND THE GFS HAS FOLLOWED THIS LEAD ABOUT A DAY BEHIND.            
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG HI PRES WILL LINGER TO THE E OF THE FA FOR            
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...PROVIDING AN ELY FLOW...AND COUPLED WITH A                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SW...WILL KEEP THE HEAT LARGELY AT BAY             
DESPITE RATHER HIGH H500 HEIGHTS ABOVE US. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING               
THE BEGINNINGS OF THE RELEASE OF THE HEAT ON MONDAY...PUSHING IT                
BACK YET ANOTHER DAY. PLAN ON KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH THE                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SW AND AIR TOO DRY AT THE LO LEVELS FOR            
ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION...IT WILL ALL HAVE TO BE ELEVATED. ONLY                
REAL CHANCE APPEARS TO BE VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT            
AND POSSIBLY CARRYING INTO FRIDAY WHERE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE                   
FORCING MAY KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION. LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCES THERE             
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE AOB NORMAL UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY                 
WHERE THEY SHOULD EDGE ABOVE NORMAL.                                            
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/1109 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008/                                                   
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONT TO MOVE SEWD THRU UIN                
TIL ABOUT 06Z OR 07Z TUE AHD OF A NW FLOW SHRTWV TROF CNTRD OVER                
SERN IA ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO NEAR A SFC TROF EXTDG FM A                 
SFC LOW OVR WRN KY NW THRU N CNTRL MO. MAINLY JUST SOME CIRRUS                  
CLOUDS AT COU..STL AND SUS ATTM...BUT MID LVL CLOUDINESS FM IRK                 
TO UIN WILL ADVCT SEWD INTO CNTRL MO LT TGT AS SHRTWV TROF MOVES                
SEWD THRU PTNS OF CNTRL AND SRN IL. MAY INCLUDE VCTS OR VCSH IN                 
STL BTWN 07Z-10Z TUE DEPENDING ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...ALTHOUGH            
IT APRS THAT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA WILL PASS JUST E OF STL LT TGT.              
LARGE AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS OVER SRN MN AND NRN IA WILL LIKELY                 
MOVE SEWD INTO UIN TOWARDS THE EARLY MRNG HRS. MDL RH FCST                      
GUIDANCE AND MOS CLOUD CEILING HGT GUIDANCE FM ETA AND GFS DEPICT               
LOW LVL MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CLOUDINESS AT THE TAF SITES ON TUE.                
WILL INCLUDE SCT LOW LVL CLOUDS IN COU TUE...AND A BKN CEILING OF               
LOW LVL CLOUDS IN UIN...STL AND SUS ON TUE BUT WILL LEAVE IT IN                 
THE VFR CATAGORY. SFC WNDS WILL BE NWLY ON TUE AHD OF A SFC RDG                 
BLDG SEWD INTO MO. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLR OUT TUE EVNG WITH WKNG                 
W-NWLY SFC WNDS.                                                                
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1103 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
/925 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008/                                                    
GOING FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH CHANCES OF SHRA                      
INCREASING MAINLY AFTER 3 AM OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.                 
RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND                 
INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AS ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCES OF                 
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TEMPERATURE AND SKY TRENDS ALSO LOOK GOOD.               
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/348 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008/                                                    
NWP MODELS ALL AGREE ON NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW BEING THE RULE THRU                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE THEIR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACTLY WHAT THIS             
MEANS FOR THE MID MS VALLEY WRT PCPN CHANCES.  A SERIES OF                      
DISTURBANCES WILL MOV SEWD THRU THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND             
WILL INTERACT WITH...FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE THAT IS AOA NORMAL            
FOR LATE MAY.                                                                   
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A SHORTWAVE WITH ATTENDANT LO PRES THAT                
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. DECENT LIFT THRU THE COLUMN BY             
12Z OVER THE NWRN FA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCT SHRA BY DAYBREAK.               
THE BEST LIFT/PCPN CHCS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK SEWD THRU               
THE NERN HALF OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE EXPECTED             
SFC LO TRACK. HOWEVER...FORCING OVER CNTRL MO FROM H850 JET/WAA MAY             
TRIGGER SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THERE...AND AS THIS FORCING MOVES              
INTO SERN MO BY AFTN...IT WILL OPEN THE WAY FOR MORE SFC-BASED                  
CONVECTION. SHEAR WILL MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR TSRA WITH STRONG GUSTY              
WINDS OVER THE ERN OZARKS AND SRN IL. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT THE            
FAR SRN FA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.                                             
LOOK FOR A TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE LO PRES                 
TRACK SEPARATES CLOUDS/PCPN FROM PTSUNNY SKIES WITH MORE ISOLATED               
PCPN.                                                                           
THE NEXT SYSTEM...ADVERTISED AS A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM THAT WAS                  
EXPECTED TO MAINLY GO INTO THE GRTLKS REGION...IS NOW TRACKING A BIT            
MORE SE AND MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE NERN FA              
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. EDGED POPS UP A BIT THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.              
WEDNESDAY COULD BE RATHER COOL...ESP IN THE NERN HALF OF THE FA...              
WITH COOL START...WEAK SFC FLOW...AND INCRSG CLOUDINESS. EDGED DOWN             
FROM PREV FCST SEVERAL DEGS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS MOS SUGGESTS             
WHICH SEEMED TO BE TOO COOL.                                                    
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD             
AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL MASS FIELDS...WITH HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE                  
DOMINATING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH             
ITSELF ON THURSDAY...AND WITH A PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE ALREADY IN            
PLACE...THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE                
AREA. BUT ONCE RIDGE GETS MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WITH ITS LIGHT                
WIND REGIME AND NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW...SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER                   
PREVAIL. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER                 
BACKDOOR HI PRES FOR THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL TEND TO EXPAND THE                
FRONTAL ZONE PCPN A BIT FURTHER SWWD INTO CNTRL AND SERN MO FOR                 
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT ALSO KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND DEWPOINTS LOWER            
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WITH ITS PERSISTENT ELY FLOW. COULD BE A            
REAL NICE WEEKEND ON TAP... BUT IT IS STILL FAR OUT THERE. MAIN                 
MODEL DIFFS ARE A BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN CONUS BY                  
SUNDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME ENERGY TO BREAKOFF FROM DEEP TROF OVER              
THE W...BUT ECMWF HOLDS THIS FIRM AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES WELL TO THE            
W. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT SUNDAY DRY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE.                        
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008/                                                   
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LGT SFC WNDS LT THIS EVNG WILL BCM SELY BY EARLY             
MRNG AS A SFC LOW MOVES SEWD FM NEBRASKA INTO NERN KS AND AS A WK               
SFC RDG MOVES E OF THE TAF SITES. MID LVL CLOUDINESS WL DVLP AND                
SPREAD SEWD THRU THE CWA LT TGT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WK NW FLOW               
SHRTWV TROF...AND AS LOW-MID LVL WAA INCRS OVER THE CWA ON THE                  
NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ. THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD THRU THE AREA              
ON MON...TRACKING JUST S OF COU AND STL. SELY SFC WNDS AT UIN WL                
BACK ARND TO A MORE ELY FLOW ON MON WELL N OF THE PATH OF THE SFC               
LOW. S-SELY SFC WNDS IN COU...STL AND SUS MON MRNG WL SHIFT TO A                
N-NWLY DIRECTION BHND THE SFC LOW BY LT MON AFTN OR EARLY EVNG. WILL            
INCLUDE A CHC OF TSRA IN UIN LT MON MRNG WHERE MDLS DEPICT THE                  
BEST POTENTIAL OF QPF WELL LEFT OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.                    
ALTHOUGH CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER DURING THE DAY ON MON AT THE               
TAF SITES LOOKING AT THE MDL RH FCSTS...PLAN TO KEEP THE PREVAILING             
CEILING HGTS IN THE VFR CATAGORY THRU THE TAF FCST PD.                          
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
1105 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BAND OF ECHOES CONTINUES ON RADAR OVER LIBERTY AND NORTHEAST                    
CHOUTEAU COUNTIES. NOT SURE HOW MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND AS                  
EVENING INVERTED V UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM TFX SHOWING PLENTY OF                
DRY AIR SUB CLOUD. ALSO WHEN ECHOES WENT OVER ROCKY BOY RAWS NO                 
PRECIP WAS MEASURED. CANADIAN RADARS DO SHOW MORE ECHOES OVER                   
SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND CAN SEE CONTINUED                 
SHOWER THREAT OVER NE MT...POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST                      
COUNTIES...ALONG 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT. THINK 18Z GFS OVERDONE                
IN ENHANCING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT IN A BAND BUILDING              
IN FROM THE W...AS THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TAKING SHAPE OR                     
VERIFYING AT THIS POINT. MORE CONSERVATIVE NAM AND RUC LOOK MORE                
REALISTIC WITH JUST SPOTTY PRECIP EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.               
REILLY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 0505Z.                                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND                 
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL              
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE THE MAINLY HIGH                      
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.             
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH               
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND               
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL             
MONTANA ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE                  
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE               
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY (INCLUDING KHLN KGTF KLWT TERMINALS). THE            
AIRMASS WILL ALSO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY            
AFTERNOON FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE. HOWEVER...AM              
NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH OF A CHANCE (OR RESULTANT COVERAGE) TO MENTION             
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.  COULSTON                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 610 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008/                                             
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER              
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. FOR                
TONIGHT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING. FOR LATE                 
TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE                
NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE CENTRAL ZONES. THERE APPEARS THERE WILL BE               
SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO                
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS              
BAND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.                
ALSO EXPECT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO WILL MENTION THE THREAT OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE                 
MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF                   
PRECIPITATION TO END. THEN ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A HARBINGER OF A            
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE. AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE             
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED             
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A CUT BANK TO BUTTE LINE BY LATE              
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE                 
FRONT. HOWEVER THE MAIN MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DO                 
EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO              
MENTION A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. IN THE FAR EAST THE                  
AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY AND NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT                      
THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL REMOVE THEIR MENTION FROM THE FORECAST. BLANK             
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A RATHER UNSETTLED AND              
WET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT              
WEEK. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY                
TUESDAY EVENING...AS COOLER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM              
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE             
CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE                
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE                    
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A STEADY                
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS               
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS                    
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON                   
FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO               
RESIDE OVER THE REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO AFFECT                
MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. BRUSDA                                 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST MODELS INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE             
WESTERN STATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE             
REGION. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BE BELOW                  
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTH            
WEST MOUNTAINS. SAUCIER                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  59  73  55  79 /  20  20  10  20                                           
CTB  50  71  50  74 /  20  20  20  30                                           
HLN  58  80  54  81 /  10  10   0  20                                           
BZN  47  81  48  84 /   0  10   0  10                                           
WEY  38  70  41  71 /  10   0   0  10                                           
DLN  46  78  47  79 /   0   0   0  20                                           
HVR  47  74  48  80 /  20  10  30  10                                           
LWT  50  69  45  78 /  10  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...REILLY                                                             
LONG TERM...BRUSDA/SAUCIER                                                      
AVIATION...COULSTON                                                             
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
737 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN                
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WRAP AROUND BAND OF RAIN            
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.             
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND BE HEAVIEST              
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN                   
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL              
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN            
CANADA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONSIDERABLE             
CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. PERIODIC RAIN              
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT            
SIDE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...RATHER ROBUST RAIN BAND EXTENDING N-S                 
ACROSS FAR NERN NY AND THROUGHOUT THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AT 1815Z. THIS              
BAND IS LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE H5 LOW OVER FAR NERN VT.                
IT/S LIKELY THAT THE INVERSION EVIDENT IN GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS              
AFTN AT KBTV IS RESULTING IN BLOCKED FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT                   
BEING FELT UPSTREAM OF THE MTNS BY 15-20 KM ON THE VT SIDE OF THE               
VALLEY. 2-4KM FLOW IS WLY AT 30-40 KTS PER KCXX VAD...AND IS                    
CONTRIBUTING TO THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS BEING FELT IN THE CHAMPLAIN              
VALLEY. AT KBTV...RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 0.20"...AND ANOTHER ONE              
TO TWO TENTHS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. UPR TROUGH IS               
QUITE COLD...WITH 0HR RUC 850MB TEMPS OF -1 TO -2C OVER THE NORTH               
COUNTRY THIS AFTN. CONSIDERABLE BRIGHT BANDING IS EVIDENT ON KCXX               
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...AT A HGT OF 1900-2600 FT MSL. THUS...WE                
BELIEVE PCPN IS MIXING WITH WET SNOW ABOVE 1900 FT OR SO...AND MAY              
RESULT IN A MINIMUM SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM 2500 FT TO SUMMIT LVL                
OF UP TO 1 INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS MAIN 500MB VORT SHIFTS EWD                  
TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND BAND WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD AS WELL WITH                   
DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF PCPN AFTER 03Z. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY              
CLOUDY AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RANGE OF LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR TOMORROW MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE                    
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 40-42F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO THE MID              
TO UPR 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW              
2000 FT. ABOVE 2000 FT...LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE              
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS SHOWN ON THE NAM                
MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT MATERIALIZE WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS TODAY                
OWING TO STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PCPN. WLY GRADIENT FLOW IS                      
DECREASING ON THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE OVERNIGHT AND 10-M WINDS SHOULD                
GENERALLY BE SWLY AT 5-10 KTS MOST SECTIONS TONIGHT.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                   
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...THE BROAD MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN            
AS OUR CONTROLLING WX FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST                
PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RH LESSENS AND WRN PORTION OF UPR               
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH JUST              
WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE FACTORS                
POINT TO PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW /ALSO                      
SUPPORTED BY NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE                
OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO CHANCE              
POPS FOR -SHRA ACROSS MTN LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE                 
LIGHTER THAN OBSERVED TODAY. ALSO...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES                     
MODERATING TO NEAR +2C TOMORROW...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES               
REACH 60-62F IN THE KBTV AREA AND INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE 1-2 KFT               
ELEVATION BAND. SFC WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE SW AT                  
AROUND 10KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN HOURS. THIS WIND              
REGIME SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE                     
ADIRONDACKS /I.E...IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/ AND ALSO POINTS EAST                
OF THE GREENS IN ORANGE/WINDSOR COUNTIES.                                       
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE 12Z GFS                
SOLN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO GOOD TEMPORAL                      
CONTINUITY OF THE MODEL. WRN PORTION OF UPR TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING              
AND APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING DPVA INTO THE EASTERN             
GREAT LAKES AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT LIKELY POPS              
IN THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY                    
AFTN...WITH TIMING OF BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE IS             
SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT GULF OF                  
MEXICO OR SWRN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORT. THUS...HAVE KEPT QPF FOR THE             
PERIOD 06Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0.1-0.2" RANGE OVER THE              
NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN            
THE BLW AVG TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER               
30S TO LOW 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F IN THE VALLEYS.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE          
SOLNS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING SEASONABLY                   
COOL AND SHOWERY REGIME THU/FRI TO TRANSITION TO DRIER/WARMER WX                
BY LATER NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IDEA ALSO HAS                  
BROAD SUPPORT FROM LAST NIGHT/S EURO AND CANADIAN RUNS. WILL                    
ADVERTISE HIGHEST THREAT OF PCPN/SHRAS ON THURSDAY AS CORE OF ADDL              
UPPER LVL COOL POOL SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA...AND CONTINUE                   
THREAT OF SCT ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THOUGH TO A LESSER DEGREE              
AS SYSTEM EASES EAST/SOUTH OF AREA. DESPITE FAIRLY DECENT BNDRY                 
LYR MIXING...MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AVERAGING SOME              
8-12 DEG BELOW LATE MAY NORMALS.                                                
THEREAFTER...BROAD MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD              
ACROSS THE CONUS BY LATER NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS               
EXPECT AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BY             
SATURDAY...AND ESP BY SUN/MON TIME FRAME AS MID LVL TEMPS RESPOND               
NICELY TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AND BROAD-SCALE SUBSIDENCE.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE                 
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW DUMBBELLS ACROSS NRN NEW                 
ENGLAND/SRN CANADA. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN                     
ACROSS THE AREA BUT AFT MIDNIGHT AN ADDL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN                    
NICELY ON WV IMAGERY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY                   
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -RA AND/OR -SHRAS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES BY 6Z.           
CIGS WILL MOSTLY BE 030-040 THROUGH THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH THERE               
WILL BE A SMALL BREAK EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME SCT CLD DECKS.               
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ALL LOCALS HAVING CIGS AGAIN BY 03Z.              
AFT 18Z IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION                
WITH ALL LOCATIONS GOING VFR. WNDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST WITH                 
GUSTS TO 15 KTS...BEFORE THEY BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY                     
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY               
SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA.              
EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO MVFR DURING AFTERNOON RAIN                   
SHOWERS AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. BEST                    
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY              
AFTERNOON AS A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO                
MOVE OVER THE AREA. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE 020-040 AGL DURING                   
THIS PERIOD.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS                                                              
NEAR TERM...BANACOS                                                             
SHORT TERM...BANACOS                                                            
LONG TERM...JMG                                                                 
AVIATION...JMG/DUMONT                                                           
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
945 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH            
PRESSURE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                 
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE            
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 9 PM SUNDAY...A DEEP MIXED LAYER (6000-7000 FT DEEP) HAS                  
SUPPORTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF                   
HIGHWAY 76 THIS EVENING DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND                
50S. THE INVERTED-V SHAPE TO THE SOUNDINGS ARE TYPICAL OF THOSE IN              
THE WESTERN U.S. AND HAVE SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-45 MPH                 
RANGE NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY                 
DIMINISH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 A.M. WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO                 
INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.             
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES FROM JUST NORTH OF RALEIGH TO NEAR                  
GREENSBORO AND HICKORY AT 9 PM. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW SOME                      
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY REDEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. HOWEVER             
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST RUC AND 18Z NAM SHOW INCREASINGLY            
WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SUPPRESSING               
LAND-BASED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT               
CHANGES TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT...UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S AT            
THE COAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE MAIN AREAS OF LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE             
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS                 
FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AS               
ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW CREATE ADDITIONAL LIFT.               
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOWN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING            
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING INTO THE 60S...COUPLED W/ THE            
AFOREMENTIONED LIFT THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE              
TSTMS WILL EXIST. AFTER THE INITIAL INHIBITION ERODES DURING TUESDAY            
HAVE STEPPED POPS UP TO GOOD CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE             
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. DECREASED POPS THEREAFTER WITH THE FOCUS             
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT              
WINDY CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF MIXING WITH SHARP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE               
RATES EXPECTED...AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALSO LEANED TOWARD            
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN SOUTHWESTERLY VS FLOW OFF THE COOLER              
OCEAN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE TWO MAIN REGIMES.            
FIRST WILL LAST THROUGH FRI WITH COLD FRONT STALLED ALONG OR JUST S             
OF THE AREA. A COUPLE SFC WAVES...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK 5H                  
WAVES...WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTION.              
PRECIP COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE LOCALIZED WITH LOCATION DEPENDANT ON             
WHERE SFC BOUNDARY IS. GUIDANCE AND HPC ALL POINT TO FRONT STALLING             
JUST S OF THE CWA WHICH MAY RESULT IN ILM AREA GETTING VERY LITTLE              
IF ANY PRECIP. DID NOT CHOSE TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT POP                 
FORECAST...SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI.                           
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE REGION LATER FRI              
AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER TROF BUILDS S OVER OR               
JUST OFF THE E CONUS FRI DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. BOTH              
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST WITH SFC RIDGE IN              
PLACE. MAIN DIFFERENCE WOULD BE TEMPS...GFS KEEPS THE TROF AXIS                 
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND YIELDS COOLER TEMPS. FAVORED A BLEND OF THE             
GFS/ECMWF WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE HPC SOLUTION.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /0Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL REMAIN               
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT.  INLAND TERMINALS SUCH AS KFLO AND KLBT            
STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                
ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT.  ALL OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED             
TO THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN 8K AND 12K WITH VERY DRY AIR DOWN TO THE              
SURFACE.  ELSEWHERE THE STORY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN THE GUSTY WINDS             
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AN HOUR OR TWO                
AFTER SUNSET BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.  WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO               
THE WEST TO WEST NORTH-WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE.                                                                        
OUTLOOK MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWER PRESSURE TO AFFECT THE AREA             
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND COULD BRING AN                 
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 9 PM SUNDAY...THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS OF EARLIER TODAY ARE              
BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS BEGINS TO SET UP                
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTH               
CAROLINA WILL MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE AROUND DAYBREAK. UNTIL THEN              
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS. THE PRIMARY              
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THIS EVENING WHERE                 
MASSED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS TEMPORARILY TURNED WINDS NORTHERLY.               
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EASILY VISIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY AND COULD              
AFFECT LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT.                             
SEAS WILL REMAIN 6 FT OR GREATER AWAY FROM SHORE FOR THE NORTH                  
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...BUT HAVE LIKELY ALREADY DIMINISHED            
BELOW 6 FT FOR THE SC WATERS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE CHS                  
OFFICE WE WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE AS EARLIER                 
SCHEDULED...EXPIRING AT 6 AM MONDAY.                                            
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD WILL               
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN                 
DURING TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD                  
FRONT. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND TUESDAY WILL VEERING TO AN OFFSHORE            
DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT                 
MOVES INTO THE PICTURE AND STALLS. REEFCAST AND WNA OUTPUT SHOW SEAS            
EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS DURING TUESDAY...PEAKING IN THE                
EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WIND BECOMES             
OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS.                                                           
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY/REMAINS OF COLD FRONT                
WILL BE STALLED ACROSS OR JUST S OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST             
PERIOD. PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY KEEPS GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS                     
WEAK...BUT DOES POSE A PROBLEM WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION. ALONG            
AND S OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE W TO SW WHILE ON THE N SIDE OF              
THE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE NW TO N. SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE             
WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FT SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.                       
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-             
     254-256.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...TRA                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SRP                                                                
LONG TERM...III                                                                 
AVIATION...HEDEN                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
746 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  AN UPPER               
LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK                 
KEEPING THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
23Z SFC ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATES LOW PRES OVER SERN MO WITH A WARM FRONT            
EXTENDING E THRU ERN KY AND FAR WRN WV.  LOW PRES MOVES ENE TNGT                
SPREADING WDSPRD RA TO THE CWA.  RUC13/SREF/GEFS/NAM12 ALL AGREE ON             
CAT POPS OVERNIGHT THUS RAISED THEM TO 90-100%.  88D CONTS TO RUN               
HOT DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...SO BE CAUTIOUS WHEN SEEING HIGHER                   
RETURNS AND ASSOCIATED DOPPLER ESTIMATED RAIN RATES.  MEAN QPF FM               
AREA SREF PLUMES POINT TO A HALF TO ONE INCH BASIN RNFL.  THE MOST              
INTENSE QPF SHALL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF FROPA WHICH IS SCHEDULED                  
AROUND 12Z +/- 3HRS.  THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE STRONG H2 AGEO               
WIND DIV...H8 LLVL SPEED CONV...AND HIGHEST H10-H7 MSTR FLUX CONV.              
DID NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TRW...HWVR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE                 
MARGINAL AT BEST.  SHOWALTER INDEX DIPS TO 0C IN THE HEADWATERS OF              
THE TUG BASIN...SO ANY CHC OF THUNDER SHOULD OCCUR THERE.                       
NW WINDS AND SATURATED LLVLS TUES MRNG OWE TO -RA AND -DZ MOST OF               
THE MRNG.  BL DRIES OUT EVER SO SLIGHTLY TUES AFTN IN THE W ALLOWING            
SOME SUNSHINE.  MEANWHILE...IN THE MTNS LOOK FOR CLOUDS AND DZ TO               
PERSIST.                                                                        
GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WITH CLOUDS               
AND PRECIP ABOUND.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LOW PROVIDING A               
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WITH IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND IT.                           
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN THE TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES.                  
TIMING ON THESE IMPULSES ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CHANGING...THEREFORE WILL            
BE FAIRLY GENERIC WITH POPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY...AND                  
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND               
WARMING CONDITIONS...AS UPPER LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
PCPN CONTS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG AND S OF HTS-CRW-BKW.  THIS             
AREA SHIFTS N AND INCS IN AREAL CVRG DURING THE OVERNIGHT.  MVFR WX             
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THRU 8Z OR SO.              
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY MRNG BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR WX TO              
ALL TERMINALS.  EKN AND ESP BKW SHALL SEE IFR WX THRU TUES MRNG                 
BEFORE CONDS LIFT TO MVFR.  RA GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF TO DZ BEFORE                
ENDING FM W TO E IN THE AFTN.  IT IS QUITE PSBL FOR BKW TO BE                   
EXPERIENCING DZ 24HRS FM NOW.                                                   
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 0Z WED/...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.                           
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...29                                                                   
NEAR TERM...29/30                                                               
SHORT TERM...RPY                                                                
LONG TERM...RPY                                                                 
AVIATION...29                                                                   
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
132 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A CLIPPER SYSTEM                 
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER                     
UNDERNEATH A LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
ELONGATED AREA OF MID LVL ENERGY CONTS TO DROP S THRU THE OH VLY.               
TCU ARE VISIBLE OVER CNTRL KY AND SERN OH OWING TO RADAR RETURNS ON             
THE LATEST 88D MOSAIC.  RUC13/WRFNMM/SREF/NAM12 ALL ILLUSTRATE RW               
BREAKING OUT IN THE MTNS BTWN 1-4Z.  GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS                  
AFOREMENTIONED MDLS ARE VERIFYING RATHER WELL.  UPDATED POPS TO LKLY            
AND CAT FOR THE NRN AND CNTRL WV MTNS THIS EVNG.  FARTHER W...WITH              
DWPTS IN THE L-M 30S ATMS IS MORE STABLE...SO A DRY FCST HOLDS.                 
CLOUDS COLLAPSE IN LARGE PART AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING A CLEAR OR                 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.  THINK WE MAINTAIN ENOUGH WIND AT TOP OF BOUNDARY            
LAYER TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT INCLUDED SOME IN THE DEEPER               
EASTERN VALLEYS.  RAN CLOSER TO MAV IN GENERAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN            
THE EAST...CLOSER TO COOLER MET IN THE WEST WITH EARLIER CLEARING.              
MONDAY WILL DAWN WITH SUNSHINE AREAWIDE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE              
RIDGE PAYING THE BRIEFEST OF VISITS.  THE JUMPY WEATHER PATTERN                 
CONTINUES THOUGH...AS A CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE RACES DOWN THE BACK            
SIDE OF THE H500 TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY.  MODELS                   
ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.  SHOULD SEE                     
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON...AND THEN HAVE CHANCE               
POPS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF CWA BEFORE 00Z TUE FOR LIGHT                
QPF.  STAYED CLOSER TO MAV FOR HIGHS...EXCEPT WENT SOME 5-6 DEGREES             
ABOVE IN THE HTS VICINITY.  THINK MODEL IS OVERDOING THE INFLUENCE              
OF CLOUDS HERE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF S/W TROUGH                 
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC OVERNIGHT                  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW CONTINUES             
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CWA...WITH THE FOCUS OF THE MOST ORGANIZED                  
PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SW VA. TRIED            
TO TIME HIGHEST POPS WITH BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WHICH THE                
NAM12 SHOWS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CENTERED AROUND 06Z TUESDAY.              
SREF IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOCUSING BEST 6HR POP DURING THAT TIME              
FRAME. LEFT CHC POPS FROM ABOUT CRW NORTH.                                      
SYSTEM DEPARTS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GIVING A VERY BRIEF BREAK             
TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING YET ANOTHER S/W                   
TROUGH/VORT MAX THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.                  
FOLLOWED THE NAM12 FOR THIS FEATURE...WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER             
TROUGH THAN GFS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FAST NW FLOW. CARRIED             
ONLY SCHC POPS FOR MOST OF AREA WITH NOT MUCH FORCING DEPICTED.                 
FOR TEMPS...RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS                  
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR              
HIGHS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
ONE MORE WEAK LOW WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON THURSDAY AFFECTING            
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR THIS               
AREA WHILE KEEPING SE OHIO COUNTIES DRY.                                        
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE WX OVER THE EAST             
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO JUST OFF               
THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN OMEGA            
BLOCK OVER CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DEEP TROUGHS ALONG BOTH WEST            
AND EAST COASTS. CWA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE EAST COAST            
TROUGH KEEPING NW FLOW GOING...ALBEIT DRY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD              
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCK TRIES TO BREAK DOWN WITH BOTH                   
TROUGHS BEGINNING TO LIFT.                                                      
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GMOS/PREVIOUS FCST FOR MAXT THROUGH THE                      
EXTENDED...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD A DEGREE DAYS 6-7. RAISED MINT            
A FEW DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED/MAINLY SOUTH/ TO ACCOUNT FOR              
SOMEWHAT OF DEWPOINT GRADIENT OVER NE KY/SOUTHERN WV. THIS SEEMS                
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS OF AN                     
INFLUENCE ON THAT PART OF THE CWA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
REMAINDER OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE BKW AREA... SHOULD              
BE THE LAST ACTIVITY FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT...BUT              
WILL NOT GO CALM...SO FOG FORMATION SHOULD NOT OCCUR. THIS IS ALSO              
SUPPORTED BY PROBABILISTIC DATA. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY WITH               
GUSTS TO 20KT AREA WIDE. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED                 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                    
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 06Z TUESDAY/...IFR POSSIBLE IN TSRA TUES                
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CL/30                                                                
NEAR TERM...CL/29                                                               
SHORT TERM...30                                                                 
LONG TERM...30                                                                  
AVIATION...26                                                                   
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1112 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WAS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED AND HAD MOVED                 
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE               
NORTH BEHIND IT. MADE ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY. EXTENDED                
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES... CURRENTLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF               
THE CWA... INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RUC INDICATING THE WARM                 
NOSE AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO THIS AREA WITH HIGHS               
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MEANWHILE... LOWERED SOME OF                
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES               
DUE TO PRESENCE OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS... ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL              
STILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT                 
WILL PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.              
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY COME CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS...BUT AS A WHOLE...              
CURRENT FORECAST PUTS MOST LOCATIONS 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW TODAYS                
RECORD HIGHS. A FEW RECORDS: OKC/97...SPS/102...GAG/102...HBR/98                
AND PNC/95.                                                                     
SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND FRONT AND                         
INTRODUCTION OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR               
VERY HIGH- BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST TONIGHT                  
NORTH OF MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND               
WEDNESDAY AS SAID FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.                 
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR                
MID-LATE WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE              
BETTER AGREEMENT ON HANDLING OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA                   
REGION. AS THIS FEATURE GETS KICKED EAST AND NORTHEAST...IT WILL                
GET CAUGHT UP IN MEAN RIDGE POSITION BETWEEN DEVELOPING WESTERN                 
TROUGH AND LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE LOCATIONS                
NEAR AND SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CONCENTRATED                   
RAINFALL. CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS IS TO KEEP MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS                
SYSTEM SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST WORDED THAT               
WAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.                            
CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD OFF OF HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE              
PERIOD IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT IF                 
ANYTHING GETS GOING...IT WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER NORTHWARD                     
TRAJECTORY THAT EAST GIVEN DEEP LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW. WILL KEEP                
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN                  
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO EXACT LONGITUDE OF UPPER TROUGH AND MEAN RIDGE              
AXES AND INCREASING DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECM.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  62  90  63 /  10  10   0  10                              
HOBART OK         98  63  89  63 /   0   0   0  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  63  91  65 /   0   0   0  10                              
GAGE OK           96  58  88  61 /   0  10   0  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     92  62  88  62 /  10  20   0  20                              
DURANT OK         93  63  89  65 /   0  10   0  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
32/25                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
157 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S.               
WILL KEEP IT COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE STORM TODAY               
WILL MAKE RAIN...THEN ANOTHER ON TUESDAY WILL MAKE MORE RAIN. BUT               
MONDAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR MID-MAY...AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION               
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE COLDEST OF THE AIR MOVES              
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND               
FRIDAY AS THE DEEP TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES TO OUR EAST.                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...                                       
STRATIFORM RAIN AREA HAS CLEARED ALL BUT MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES              
AT PRESENT WITH COLD CORE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES AND              
SPAWNING A FEW LINES OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER                
AND SEVERAL PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTS ACCORDING TO CLE. NOT EXTREMELY              
CONCERNED FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF PEA SIZED HAIL                 
REPORTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WET BULB ZEROES                
IN THE 6-7K RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SWING INTO THE LAURELS...         
THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL. HAVE ISSUED A                  
QUICK UPDATE FOR THIS EVOLUTION AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SMALL               
HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                 
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...                            
BRIEF DRYING SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT...AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVES              
WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN PA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS IS A                  
MORE-TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW...AND HAVE CONFINED HIGHEST POPS TO                 
THE NORTHWEST. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS THE TEMPS - BOTH              
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE REALLY COLD FOR MID-MAY. WILL ALSO                 
MENTION SOME SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND IT COULD EVEN                 
BRIEFLY ACCUMULATE ON THE COLDER/GRASSY SURFACES AGAIN DURING                   
MONDAY MORNING IN THE NW. QUITE A MAY. /OR IS IT MARCH?/ THE TEMPS              
WILL BE COLDEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S IN THE                     
NORTH...TO NEAR 60 IN THE SE WHERE DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUNSHINE                  
WILL HELP THEM ATTAIN THOSE LOFTY NUMBERS. NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE               
GUSTY ON MONDAY.                                                                
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER STORM SHOULD MOVE IN                
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY TUES MORNING.                 
SO TUESDAY LOOKS WET AT THIS POINT...BUT TIMING THESE LITTLE                    
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW IS STILL NOT AN EASY THING AT DAY3. WILL MAKE               
A MOVE UP TO LIKELIES FROM CHC POPS AT THIS POINT. TUESDAY ALSO                 
LOOKS JUST A LITTLE BIT MILDER THAN MONDAY BUT STILL ~15 DEGS                   
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE                     
MAINLY IN THE 50S/L60S.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LAST NIGHT AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH              
GIVEN UP ON ANY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE EASTERN U.S. BEFORE                 
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OUR ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW IS MOST                  
LIKELY GOING TO STAY PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND                 
FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                            
A HOPE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPS AND LESS RAIN WILL COME MAINLY                  
FROM A MODIFICATION OF OUR CURRENT AIRMASS AND LESS DIRECT                      
INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR FROM CENT/NRN CANADA. THIS WOULD HELP OUR                
TEMPS MODERATE...AND A PERSISTENT NW FLOW WOULD BE A MORE-DRY                   
FLOW PATTERN THAN THE FLOW WE ARE IN NOW...WHICH KEEPS                          
TRANSPORTING SHOTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX EVERY 24-36 HRS. THE              
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE                  
CURRENT FLOW -- WITH THE UPPER LOW OPENING UP TO A LONGWAVE TROF                
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NOAM. THE                    
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD HELP USHER A SFC HIGH DOWN FROM CENTRAL              
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS - AGAIN -              
SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. BUT IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THE              
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /WED NIGHT-SAT/ DRY AT THIS                  
POINT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
PRECIP ROLLING INTO CENTRAL PA ATTM. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO                       
FREQUENTLY GO BTWN MVFR/IFR WITH PRECIP AND ABUNDANT LLVL                       
MOISTURE. FIRST SLUG OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE AT MOST TAF SITES PRIOR              
TO 15Z...WITH A BREAK IN PRECIP ON BACKSIDE BEFORE SECOND SLUG                  
ARRIVES LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN. IR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLEAR              
LINE OF CLOUDS PUNCHING INTO CENTRAL OH...CONFIDENCE IN THIS                    
ARRIVING IS MINIMAL TO CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS.                                    
RUC IS PROGGING STEADY SHRA TO ARRIVE ARND 16-21Z AT KBFD NORTH OF              
A WEAK SFC LOW TRACK. THIS SOLUTION ALSO FAVORS WRAPPING DRY AIR                
INTO KAOO/KUNV/KJST/KMDT MID/LATE AFTN FROM DRY WEDGE PRESENTLY                 
LOCATED IN CENTRAL OH. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST AIRFIELDS IN                 
CENTRAL PA UNTIL ARND 21-23Z WHEN PRECIP SHUD SLIDE EAST INTO THE               
SUSQ- VALLEY. AN ISO TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR FAR SE PA THIS                
AFTN. UPR LVL LOW SLIDES ACROSS SW QUEBEC...PROVIDING A                         
CHILLY/MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE MID- ATLANTI REGION LATE TONIGHT                  
INTO MON MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRFIELDS IN NW PA EARLY MON                   
COULD SEE LGT SHSN AS COLD AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND UPR LVL LOW.                     
MON AFTN THRU EARLY TUE SHUD REMAIN QUIET AND DRY WITH VFR CONDS.               
A WEAK SFC LOW DIVES SE TOWARDS KY/TN TUE MORNING...MAY PRODUCE                 
SOME CIRRUS ACROSS SW PA. WEAK SFC RIDGE TRIES TO POKE INTO                     
SOUTHERN GRT LKS WED...BUT MAY STAY WEST OF MID-ATLANTIC REGION                 
ENUF TO KEEP WEAK NW FLOW FOR CENTRAL PA INTO WED/THUR.                         
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO                                                              
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR                                                      
SHORT TERM...DANGELO                                                            
LONG TERM...DANGELO                                                             
AVIATION...BEACHLER                                                             
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
201 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER OUR                    
REGION FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 4-6 DAYS. AS THE DEEP TROUGH MOVES                  
OVER THE REGION A SURFACE STORM WILL DEVELOP AND PRODUCE SOME                   
RAIN SUNDAY AND IT WILL DRAG SOME UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER                    
PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE VERY COLD              
FOR MID-MAY. THE COLD AIR SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER UNTIL                     
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL               
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE DEEP TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES TO OUR EAST.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ITS WAY                    
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BETWEEN 930 PM AND 11 PM                   
THIS EVENING. A SECOND...SMALLER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE                
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS BETWEEN 930 AND 11 PM TOO. THE SECOND LINE                 
HAS MORE INTENSE CORES.                                                         
THE LOCAL MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN              
AFTER 11 PM AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE 2 AM. THE                 
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A SURGE OF WARMER AIR COULD SURGE                
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE STRONGER AND MORE               
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION             
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                                    
THE SREF SUGGEST RAIN SUNDAY MORNING LINGERING TO ABOUT MID DAY.                
THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS A SURGE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THIS                
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT-WAVE. ANY WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.         
THE SIMULATED RADAR FROM THE WORKSTATION WRF SHOWS RAIN IN WESTERN              
AREAS FROM JOHNSTOWN TO WARREN AROUND 6 AM. THIS AREA OF RAIN                   
BLOSSOMS AND SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AREAS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM. IT               
BECOMES FRAGMENTED AND SHOWERY AS THE AREA MOVES EASTWARD WITH                  
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT NOON SUNDAY.                                 
THE SREF AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN FOR                  
MOST AREAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.            
THOUGH THE RAIN SHOULD END AROUND NOON...IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY               
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE COOLER AIR. THE BEST              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND                
NORTHERN PA.                                                                    
IT WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY              
IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME AREAS IN THE NW MIGHT NOT REACH 50 SUNDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
THE TEMPS CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY...AS -2 TO -4C 8H AIR              
MOVES IN TO THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...AND NUMS CLOSE TO ZERO                     
REACH ALL THE WAY TO KMDT. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAXES ONLY IN THE                 
UPPER 40S AND 50S. THAT WOULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.                    
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD FOR MANY DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW OVER                    
EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG              
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED/SHOWERY PATTERN FOR               
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL                 
TEMPS PROGGED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO BUILD                
OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO               
A BIG UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A              
MODERATING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE DEEP CYCLONE OVER ERN                
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT HOW WARM                
IT GETS HERE.                                                                   
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE PA/NY                    
BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A MORE                        
ORGANIZED WAVE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF                 
SCT SHOWERS INTO EARLY MONDAY. HPC AND GMOS MINIMUM TEMPS MONDAY                
MORNING ARE IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED THE               
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE             
NORTH CENTRAL MTNS FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY MORNING THE 19TH OF                 
MAY!                                                                            
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SIMILAR IN ZIPPING ANOTHER SFC LOW                
THROUGH VA MON NIGHT/TUES. IT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY               
MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE REGION...BUT CHC POPS STILL LOOK GOOD -                
ESP FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER. WED MAY BE DRY...BUT WILL HOLD THOSE                 
POPS AT LOW CHCS...AND ALLOW NEWER HPC GUIDANCE TO HELP WITH THESE              
LATER PERIODS.                                                                  
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS OF THE                    
UPPER RIDGE FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE LATER HALF OF THE PD.                        
WHICH MEANS THAT ANY WARM UP FOR THU INTO FRI WOULD BE LESS THAN                
EXPECTED AS OUR AIRMASS MODIFIES SLOWLY OR IT COULD JUST BE                     
DELAYED A FEW DAYS. WHILE THE RIDGE POSITION MAY BE FARTHER                     
WEST...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ITS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH               
THE UPPER LOW AWAY FROM PA SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW A DECREASE IN                  
THE SHOWERY WEATHER. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER THURSDAY              
NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY VERY WELL RETURN DEPENDING HOW THE EVOLVING                
UPPER PATTERN IS RESOLVED BY THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
BREAK IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP PRIOR TO NEXT WAVE ARRIVING LATER THIS               
MORNING. IN WAKE OF SAT EVE PRECIP SHARP EROSION IN CLOUDS FROM A               
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT LOW/MID LVL ATMS COUPLED WITH DECOUPLED WINDS HAS              
RESULTED IN DECENT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND IFR/LIFR FOR               
A FEW AIRFIELDS IN CENTRAL PA. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL 12Z                 
WHEN BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR. IR IMAGERY INDICATED LEADING EDGE                
OF CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING EXTREME NW PA. RUC IS PROGGING PRECIP                
TO ARRIVE AT KBFD SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDS THRU MUCH OF              
THE DAY.                                                                        
SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR                 
CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST AIRFIELDS IN CENTRAL PA UNTIL ARND 21-23Z                
WHEN PRECIP SHUD SLIDE EAST INTO THE SUSQ-VALLEY. AN ISO TSRA                   
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR FAR SE PA THIS AFTN. UPR LVL LOW SLIDES                 
ACROSS SW QUEBEC...PROVIDING A CHILLY/MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE MID-               
ATLANTI REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN                    
AIRFIELDS IN NW PA EARLY MON COULD SEE LGT SHSN AS COLD AIR WRAPS               
IN BEHIND UPR LVL LOW.                                                          
MON AFTN THRU EARLY TUE SHUD REMAIN QUIET AND DRY WITH VFR CONDS.               
A WEAK SFC LOW DIVES SE TOWARDS KY/TN TUE MORNING...MAY PRODUCE                 
SOME CIRRUS ACROSS SW PA. WEAK SFC RIDGE TRIES TO POKE INTO                     
SOUTHERN GRT LKS WED...BUT MAY STAY WEST OF MID-ATLANTIC REGION                 
ENUF TO KEEP WEAK NW FLOW FOR CENTRAL PA INTO WED/THUR.                         
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM                                                                
NEAR TERM...GRUMM                                                               
SHORT TERM...GRUMM                                                              
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER/EVANEGO                                               
AVIATION...BEACHLER                                                             
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
909 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER WESTERN ND WITH                 
TROUGH TO CENTRAL NE. WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER MT ACTIVATING UP              
TO 500J/KG MLCAPE PER LATEST RUC FORECAST. SUSPECT ACTIVITY WILL                
BE DIURNAL IN NATURE PRIMARILY...SO LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION WILL               
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO DYE AROUND 06Z. WIND GUST POTENTIAL BEHIND                    
INITIAL BLAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED AS BOUNDARY LAYER                
DECOUPLES. WILL TWEAK CURRENT FORECAST FOR THESE THOUGHTS.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA               
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD UNTIL 06Z.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL ND                  
WITH TROUGH INTO WESTERN SD. CONVECTION FIRING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE               
IN MT PER WATER VAPOUR LOOP...IN CONCERT WITH PEAK HEATING AND UP               
TO 500J/KG MLCAPE. WILL UP POPS IN NORTHWEST SD GIVEN REGIONAL RADAR            
LOOP. GUSTY WINDS MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS. 46KTS AT K2WX AT 0031Z.             
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY                  
PASS THROUGH/NEAR KRAP THIS EVENING.                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER                   
EASTERN MONTANA MOVING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE               
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MONTANA. EXPECT A FEW                   
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND               
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN               
RUC FORECAST SOUNDING CAPE VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG AND MARGINAL                  
SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND RAP...DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF              
THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD                  
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE               
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA TOMORROW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS...AND                      
FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LOW OVER           
THE GREAT LAKES IS KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT                
THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND                
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO               
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE                
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EAST CENTRAL                  
WYOMING. GOOD MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGAN DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT               
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...BRINGING SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO               
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.                                                       
EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO            
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK...THEN CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT            
BASIN REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN THE            
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS AN OMEGA HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE             
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                    
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW SHOULD BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES              
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING THESE DISTURBANCES IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE            
AT THIS POINT...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH            
THIS PATTERN SETTING UP...SO WILL KEEP THE DAILY CHANCES FOR PCPN IN            
THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL                   
FLUCTUATE SOME OVER THE PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE              
AFTER MAIN COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.                                     
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.            
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.                          
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
656 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL ND                 
WITH TROUGH INTO WESTERN SD. CONVECTION FIRING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE               
IN MT PER WATER VAPOUR LOOP...IN CONCERT WITH PEAK HEATING AND UP               
TO 500J/KG MLCAPE. WILL UP POPS IN NORTHWEST SD GIVEN REGIONAL RADAR            
LOOP. GUSTY WINDS MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS. 46KTS AT K2WX AT 0031Z.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY                 
PASS THROUGH/NEAR KRAP THIS EVENING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER                   
EASTERN MONTANA MOVING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE               
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MONTANA. EXPECT A FEW                   
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND               
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN               
RUC FORECAST SOUNDING CAPE VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG AND MARGINAL                  
SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND RAP...DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF              
THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD                  
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE               
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA TOMORROW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS...AND                      
FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LOW OVER           
THE GREAT LAKES IS KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT                
THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND                
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO               
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE                
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EAST CENTRAL                  
WYOMING. GOOD MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGAN DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT               
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...BRINGING SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO               
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.                                                       
EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO            
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK...THEN CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT            
BASIN REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN THE            
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS AN OMEGA HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE             
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                    
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW SHOULD BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES              
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING THESE DISTURBANCES IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE            
AT THIS POINT...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH            
THIS PATTERN SETTING UP...SO WILL KEEP THE DAILY CHANCES FOR PCPN IN            
THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL                   
FLUCTUATE SOME OVER THE PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE              
AFTER MAIN COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.                                     
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.            
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.                          
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
207 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER                  
EASTERN MONTANA MOVING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE               
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MONTANA. EXPECT A FEW                   
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND               
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN               
RUC FORECAST SOUNDING CAPE VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG AND MARGINAL                  
SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND RAP...DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF              
THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD                  
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE               
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA TOMORROW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS...AND                      
FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LOW OVER           
THE GREAT LAKES IS KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT                
THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND                
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO               
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE                
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EAST CENTRAL                  
WYOMING. GOOD MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGAN DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT               
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...BRINGING SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO               
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.                                                       
EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO            
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK...THEN CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT            
BASIN REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN THE            
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS AN OMEGA HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE             
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                    
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW SHOULD BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES              
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING THESE DISTURBANCES IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE            
AT THIS POINT...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH            
THIS PATTERN SETTING UP...SO WILL KEEP THE DAILY CHANCES FOR PCPN IN            
THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL                   
FLUCTUATE SOME OVER THE PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE              
AFTER MAIN COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.           
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.                          
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
854 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO               
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
APPEARS MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY                     
TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MONITORING FOR                      
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF A                           
JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE.                                                
AT 845 PM CDT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED UNDER              
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN                
THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS WHILE              
A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS                       
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE CLOSEST                     
RAIN WAS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY NEAR OWENSBORO.                                  
REST OF TONIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE                    
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...BUT                  
AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IF ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP. LOCAL 00Z                     
SOUNDINGS INDICATED WARM DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 700 MB...ESPECIALLY              
LZK...THAT WOULD CAP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. PERHAPS...ELEVATED               
CONVECTION...WITH PARCELS AT OR ABOVE 700 MB...COULD OCCUR ALONG                
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE              
WHERE LOWER/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 700 AND 850 MB WILL BE               
A BIT COOLER. THE LATEST LOCAL RUC MODEL SUGGEST AT THIS                        
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.                                                           
IF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS...AREAS NORTHWEST OF A UNION CITY TN               
TO LEXINGTON TN LINE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING                        
AFFECTED...BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM CDT. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS               
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.                                                              
AT THIS TIME...THINK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNLIKELY AND              
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST LOW                   
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT WARM...BUT DO NOT PLAN ON MESSING WITH                
THEM AT THIS TIME AS VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WINDS MAY KEEP THEM                    
UP TONIGHT.                                                                     
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENTLY...A 997 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI               
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH IS PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTHWEST                      
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI                   
BOOTHEEL WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. SOME HIGH                
CLOUDINESS IS WORKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY              
INTO NORTHERN SECTION OF THE MID SOUTH OTRW SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.                
TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH.                
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST                  
MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND ACROSS KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND                     
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY SNEAK              
INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT THOUGH MOST                   
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH                   
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WEAKEN. AREAS ALONG THE                        
TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI BORDER SOUTHWARD MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR           
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE VERY               
MARGINAL AND AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. CLOUDINESS WILL                 
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPS WILL BE NOT QUITE AS WARM                 
BUT STILL IN 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE.                                             
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO                 
NEAR THE GULF COAST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER             
THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                      
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP EAST ON               
THURSDAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST TO                  
MOVE NORTH INTO THE MID SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE AND                      
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS                 
BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY A STRONG UPPER                  
LEVEL RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE OHIO AND                
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND THE MORE                
HUMID AIRMASS...ALONG WITH ANY RAIN CHANCES...TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF          
THE REGION.                                                                     
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE                
AREA WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.              
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE                       
COMFORTABLE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
MEM  67  86  60  81 /  10  20  10  10                                           
MKL  62  82  51  79 /  20  10  10  10                                           
JBR  64  83  56  79 /  20  10  10  10                                           
TUP  65  85  57  82 /  10  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MBS/SJM                                                                         
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
751 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT IS CLEARLY               
THE NGM. A CLOSER LOOK HOWEVER...REVEALS THAT THE NGM 6 HR QPF                  
ENDING AT 00Z IS USELESS. THUS...THAT MODEL CAN BE TOSSED.                      
LATEST 18Z RUC IS PRECIP FREE OVERNIGHT AND THE 18Z MESO SHOWS ONLY             
LIMITED AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH 12Z.            
IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT OVERALL...DEW POINTS ARE A FEW                
DEGREES LOWER THAN BOTH THE GRAPHIC AND NUMERIC PROGS.                          
I AM THEREFORE GOING TO REDUCE POPS BY 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD.             
WE WILL STILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH 12Z.                    
ALSO...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND AND AFTER 06Z.             
THEREFORE...I WILL NOT TOTALLY REMOVE POPS AT THIS TIME. WILL CHANGE            
WORDING AND REMOVE AREAL COVERAGE DESCRIPTIONS IN TERMS OF WX.                  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...TEMPS AND WINDS NEED NO CHANGING. 10            
TO 15 MPH WIND SPEEDS ARE OK GIVEN THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                  
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VRB WINDS TNGT WILL BECOME WLY BY MRNG AS SFC TROF AXIS DVLPS ACRS              
HIGH PLAINS. GENLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ONLY. TROF DPNS SUN EVE WITH              
SWLY TO SLY WINDS EXPECTED THRU SUN NGT.                                        
KRAMAR                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
ALL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF FCST AREA AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM SWRN           
ZONES REST OF TONIGHT. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.                              
ANDRADE                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL DECR AFTER SUNSET...WITH FORMING SFC TROF AXIS             
POSITION ACRS HIGH PLAINS TO AID IN DEVLPG WLY WINDS BY LATE TNGT. DECRG        
CLOUDS AS UPR TROF DEPARTS.                                                     
KRAMAR                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL TX.            
HAVE SEEN WIDELY SCT TSRA DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY ASSOCIATED              
WITH S/WV DROPPING SOUTH AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS             
EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG PRECIP HANGS AROUND THE PANHANDLES. SPC                
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES                  
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM.                   
WEAK LIFT IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW AND GIVEN THE ABOVE INSTABILITY               
PARAMETERS...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE                
FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.                         
EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS                    
OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATER                  
TONIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE           
CLEARING FURTHER UPSTRAM IN KS. LOW TEMSP TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN             
THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S IN TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS.                               
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA SUN AND WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED               
MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT            
OF THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SETUP WILL PROMOTE               
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND COUPLED WITH                       
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NIL                   
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY                      
ESPECIALLY MON WITH 850 HPA TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 30 DEG C AND                 
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH AND FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX WILL DIVE             
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MON AND WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD                 
FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE THROUGH THE AREA TUE. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL                   
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN                     
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TUE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS TEMPS            
REBOUND BACK WELL INTO THE 90S WED.                                             
THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF IN THE              
EXTENDED AS LARGE TROUGH SET TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST AND DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL               
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND CONTINUED SRLY FLOW AT THE SFC...              
RAISED TEMPS A LITTLE THU. GFS AND ECMWF START TO SUGGEST PRECIP                
CHANCES INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST             
FOR NOW.                                                                        
CLK                                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL FOR SOME TIME AS WINDS ARE            
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN              
HOT TEMPS AND DRYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER           
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE WED AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.                     
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
828 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A DECREASE IN AREAL                     
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS                 
WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE AREA              
AS INDICATED BY LATEST RUC. ARXRUCWRF ALSO INDICATED DECREASING                 
TREND IN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL AND                
SURFACE WAVE EXIT FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. IN ADDITION PER LATEST                 
RUC...STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL.                  
UPDATED DATA BASE WITH LATEST TRENDS AND ZONE FORECAST UPDATE WAS               
ISSUED AT 0120Z.                                                                
THOMPSON                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                    
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND FROST POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY NIGHT         
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH PART OF THE FORECAST.            
AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL                
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WAS GENERATING AN AREA            
OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE                   
19.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MODERATE           
TO STRONG 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS IT MOVES ACROSS                
OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...I RAISED THE PRECIPITATION                 
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY           
BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.                                      
ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WILL                  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER NEITHER                   
THE 19.12Z GFS OR NAM/WRF SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING.                    
MEANWHILE SEVERAL OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WERE GENERATING                       
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THEY APPEAR TO HAVE TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...I TRENDED WITH THE SURROUNDING WFOS TO GO               
DRY.                                                                            
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE A GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL         
COOLING. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.               
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE IN NORTH                 
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.                                                  
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY                                       
STRONG TROPICAL FORCING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS HELPING TO               
HOLD THE BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN PLACE. THIS                
ONLY MOVING A FEW DEGREES LONGITUDE A DAY. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER              
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA                 
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SLUGGISH TO MOVE EAST. MEANWHILE THERE ARE TWO              
OTHER STRONG TROPICAL FORCING ACROSS BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN               
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. BOTH OF THESE WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A               
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN ADDITION...               
THERE IS A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.           
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UNITED STATES            
CURRENTLY. ALL OF THIS STRONG TROPICAL FORCING CONTINUES TO PLAY                
HAVOC ON OUR MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THEY JUST WERE NOT DESIGNED TO                
HANDLE THIS.                                                                    
JUST LOOKING AT THE TROPICAL FORCING ALONE...WE SHOULD SEE                      
DEVELOPMENT AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOP ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. OUR                
AREA SHOULD BE LOCATED IN THE RIDGE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER               
WE WILL BE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WE WOULD                
SEE A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER                
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF WE REMAIN OF THE EAST SIDE...WE                 
WOULD STAY DRY. AT THIS TIME...IT REALLY IS UNCLEAR WHAT IS GOING               
TO TAKE PLACE. EVEN THOUGH I HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH                        
SUNDAY...I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE               
TO ADD PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO MORE OF THE UPCOMING                      
WEEKEND. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR THINGS THROUGH THE WEEK.                  
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                                                  
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST            
FLOW ALOFT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE BULK OF THE FORCING...LIFT AND            
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 850MB...WITH MOISTURE REMAINING LIMITED BELOW            
THIS LEVEL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MVFR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO A            
MINIMUM AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. SCT -SHRA ARE STILL EXPECTED AS THE              
SYSTEM PASSES MAINLY IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME WITH VSBYS GENERALLY             
AT OR ABOVE P6SM AND CIGS AT OR ABOVE 5K FT. ISOLD TSRA STILL APPEAR            
POSSIBLE WITH THE LIFT AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT. SYSTEM                  
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD VFR             
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z THRU TUE MORNING IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND             
THE SHORTWAVE. YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW MAY SPREAD ISOLD               
-SHRA AND SOME BKN050 CIGS ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUE AFTERNOON.                  
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT AND LONG TERM - BOYNE                                                     
AVIATION - RRS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
319 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE, MOVING QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, WILL BRING              
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.             
THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS BUT A COOL NORTHWEST                
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO               
TIME OVERNIGHT. A SECOND MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                
REGION ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAINTAINING A               
COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN               
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
STATUS QUO AS SHE GOES THIS MORNING. UPPER CYCLONE WILL PIVOT                   
NORTHEAST NEAR JAMES BAY AND ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO RAPIDLY SNEAK                
IN UNDER THE FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO               
RIVER THIS MORNING AND PUSH IT RAPIDLY ALONG TO THE DELMARVA BY                 
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AROUND 8 AM AND                 
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHERN PART OF CWA WILL SEE                  
MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION(MAYBE .25)WHILE SRN AREAS WILL HAVE A QPF               
STRIP OF .75 TO 1.00 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE IN A BAND FROM OUR                   
MARYLAND ZONES INTO CENTRAL DE AND SNJ BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.                  
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN NRN ZONES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND              
THE 80H JET IS CLIPPING ALONG AT 45 TO 50 KTS JUST SOUTH OF THE                 
LOW. MAY BE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WITH A NOSE OF 30 TO 32 K-VALUE              
AND POCKET OF -2 LI ACROSS MD/DE. FOR THIS REASON WILL INCLUDE A                
TSTM JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM SRN MD                    
ZONES- SNJ DE AND SNJ ZONES. AND...INCLUDE A GUSTY ONE AT THAT.                 
IF WE DON`T REACH OUR HIGH IN PHL OF 60 IT`LL BE THE SECOND TIME                
THAT HAPPENED THIS MONTH. WE REACHED 51 ON MAY 12TH. NORTHERN AREAS             
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S! THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY              
AND FULL CYCLE AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS US. MAX WINDS EXCEPT IN ANY             
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE EAR-MARKS OF             
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER ABSENT THE SNOW. IT`LL MOVE FAST AND ZIP OFFSHORE            
BY DAYS END. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING TO THE -62C RANGE AND THIS IS               
INDICATIVE OF TSTMS.                                                            
ONCE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AND COLD               
AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY SHOWERS AROUND BUT WIDELY                   
SCATTERED AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH A +2C AT 80H IN                
THE CENTER OF THE CWA.                                                          
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 AT THE SHORE.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                     
WHILE WE DO LOSE THE SURFACE FEATURE, THE UPPER AIR STILL                       
CONTROLLED BY THE ROTATING CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT              
LAKES. THE LOW DROPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND PULLS IN ANOTHER CORE OF                
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND ROTATE SOUTH AND INTO NORTHERN                          
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BY MORNING INSTABILITY SHOWERS                  
WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AGAIN. HIGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM                
53 TO 68 AND THAT CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES BELOW THE                     
NORMAL. AND THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT 33 TO 49. THE SHOWERS WILL                  
MOVE EAST AND WE STILL REMAIN PTCLDY TO MCLDY.                                  
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WE`RE STARTING              
TO SEE A BREAK IN THE STRANGLEHOLD OF THE UPPER LOW BY LATE FRIDAY.             
THE LOW TRACKS TO NOVA SCOTIA BUT HANGS A TROUGH BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA         
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LAST ATTEMPT AT BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS              
TO THE REGION MAY JUST HAPPEN AS THE TROUGHINESS EXTENDS DOWN TO                
NJ BEFORE DEPARTING THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS               
ARE THE CULPRIT AS THEY TRY TO PULL A POCKET OF COOL AIR RIGHT                  
DOWN THE BEACH BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEMS PULLS EAST. FOR NOW I`M                
GOING TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE                  
EVENING.                                                                        
NOW...THE GOOD NEWS...WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD MEMORIAL DAY                  
WEEKEND HOLIDAY IS SHAPING UP. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FROM HUDSONS                
BAY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS STATES CLEARS THINGS OUT QUITE                 
NICELY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST SLOWLY NUDGING THE LAST OF THE                
INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW AND THE AIR BEGINS TO DRY OUT BY                   
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN MONDAY. NOW...WE HAVE SEEN                
THE WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY TURN IN A HURRY AND BECOME CLOUDY AND              
DRIZZLY, BUT THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS QUITE STRONG AND COVER              
THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY                    
WEEKEND COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN                 
THE POCONOS...LOW TO UPPER 70S IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...AND 70S                
TO LOWER 80S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH THAT...IT MAY BE OK                
TO GET THE BEER...SODA AND PRETZELS!                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS                 
MOVING STEADILY ACROSS PA AND INTO NJ EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT               
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS AN AREA OF             
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS LOW              
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE VA COAST.  THERE            
ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO              
THE NWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND THE STARTING TIME.  THE GFS IS                 
FASTER (GENERALLY STARTING PRECIP BY 12Z OVER SRN AND WRN PORTIONS)             
AND SPREADS THE PRECIP FURTHER N DURING THE DAY.  THE NAM/WRF IS                
SLOWER BRINGING THE PRECIP IN, AND DOESN`T BRING IT AS FAR N. THE               
RUC IS MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE NAM/WRF WHILE THE ECMWF IS                   
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH TIMING, BUT SUPPORTS THE GFS WITH                  
RESPECT TO THE FURTHER N EXTENT.                                                
CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR, BUT WILL DROP TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE.             
AS THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN, IFR AND EVEN SOME LIFR               
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.  THE            
NAM IS ALSO FASTER ENDING THE PRECIP THAN THE GFS. BUT EVEN THE GFS             
SOLN HAS IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE SHOWERS WOULD                 
BECOME MORE SCATTERED, IF THEY LINGER IN THE FIRST PLACE.  BY THE               
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALL MODELS INDICATE A RETURN TO VFR.                     
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE GRTLKS TO NEW ENG ON WEDNESDAY               
AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR               
EVENING AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY TO NRN SECTIONS.               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THAN TAKE OVER AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HOWEVER,             
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EWD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP              
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATTM, IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL            
BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET.            
HOWEVER, A BRIEF GUST TO 25 KT OR SEAS BRIEFLY REACHING 5 FT CAN NOT            
BE RULED OUT.  LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A CDFNT THRU ON             
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME                
SHOWERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND, BRINGING RATHER               
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA WATERS IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE                                                             
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE                                                            
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE                                                           
LONG TERM...EBERWINE                                                            
AVIATION...NIERENBERG                                                           
MARINE...NIERENBERG                                                             
</pre> de                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
230 AM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS                  
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER.                          
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL PUSH               
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD              
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY 00Z THURSDAY. AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS                  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AND GRADUALLY              
INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING              
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST INCREASES. LOCAL                
WIND GUST PROGRAM AS WELL AS RUC AND MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS                   
SUGGEST BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL. QUITE A DISPARITY                     
BETWEEN 850 TEMPERATURES AND 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS                  
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODIFIED 850 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST MID/UPPER                 
80S TODAY AND LOW 90S WEDNESDAY...2M/MOS TEMPS SUGGEST 80 TODAY                 
AND LOW 80S WEDNESDAY. WITH AN UNFAVORABLE WIND FOR STRONG WARMING              
AND AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS I HAVE SPLIT THE               
TWO AND GONE WITH LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND MID 80S TO AROUND 90                 
WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM SHOW BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME                      
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE/CHEYENNE RIDGE/RATON RIDGE                 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NAM PERHAPS GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF                  
ACROSS A FLAGLER TO YUMA LINE AND POINTS WEST. HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT             
CHANCE POPS TO THAT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER/T-STORM                
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL EAST DIRECTION                           
TONIGHT...FEEDING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. GFS/NAM/RUC13 DO             
SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST                     
PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT QPF BEING                    
GENERATED. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THIS WELL SO LITTLE ADJUSTMENT                
TO BE MADE. AFTER A BREAK IN THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING NAM/GFS               
SHOW A DISTURBANCE PER 700-500 MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM               
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD BE WEAK ALLOWING               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE                
AREA WITH A FOCUS POSSIBLY ACROSS KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE NAM/GFS               
HAVE A SMALL 250 JET DIVERGENCE BULLSEYE.                                       
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHEAST              
COLORADO AS SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UTAH AREA WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT              
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL                  
MAKE IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN ANY PRECIP THAT LINGERS FROM                
EARLIER EVENING CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS POP FORECAST                 
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN REMOVE IT. THERE WILL BE A RAPID INCREASE IN              
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT AND SOME FOG/STRATUS IS           
POSSIBLE. WILL ADD IT ACCORDINGLY. DRYLINE PUSHES NORTH DURING THE              
DAY THURSDAY SHUNTING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA BY               
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE VERY DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SOUTH              
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CREATE                
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST TO               
EASTERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF THE AREA. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE HWO AT                 
PRESENT TIME BUT FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGREEMENT              
ON TIMING AND JUST HOW LOW THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE DEVELOPS.                      
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE                    
ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. ONLY CHANGE HERE WAS TO REMOVE              
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. WIND               
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL PER MOS GUIDANCE WINDS AND RUC 13              
WINDS.                                                                          
UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW OVER                
THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGE IN BETWEEN...MEANING LITTLE PROGRESS                    
EXPECTED IN ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. WITH VARIOUS DISTURBANCES                 
MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOW LEVEL JET IN THE AREA               
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SO HAVE LEFT IT IN BUT FOCUSED               
BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS A                 
LITTLE BETTER.                                                                  
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
12Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH               
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE               
TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.                   
LIGHT WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KGLD WHERE 15-20 KT                
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER DARK AS A              
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.                                                         
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES MAY NEEDED OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN                     
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS RH VALUES FALL                
AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GET INTO THE                
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THE VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD               
EAST REACHING ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST THURSDAY                       
AFTERNOON. HIGHLITES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED.                                       
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
412 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE                  
AREA WILL KEEP COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE              
WEEK. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEEN BY THE                     
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY NUDGES THE STORM SYSTEM              
OUT TO SEA AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
SFC LOW WAS ENTERING ERN KY AT THIS HOUR...WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD               
SO FAR SLIDING DUE EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE ENS                     
GUIDANCE HAS VERY WET POPS TODAY BUT AM SOMEWHAT DISHEARTENED BY                
THE LACK OF PRECIP BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. I CHOSE A PATH BETWEEN              
THE VERY HI POPS IN THE GUIDANCE AND SOMETHING LOWER SUGGESTED BY               
THE LACK OF NORTHWARD PROGRESS TO THE RAIN SHIELD. HAVE TO PLACE A              
CERTAIN AMOUNT OF FAITH IN THE IDEA THAT THE PRECIP WILL FILL IN                
AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS WE SEE THE UPPER TROF AXIS ROTATE              
THRU AND THE BEST WARM ADVECTION TRACK ACROSS. HAVE TAPERED                     
THINGS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE SECOND PART               
OF THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF.                                       
AT ANY RATE...SEEMS WE ARE LOOKING AT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A                   
LIGHT-MDT PRECIP EVENT WITH AMOUNTS UNDER .50" OVER MOST OF THE                 
FCST AREA. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL HUG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WITH              
AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH.                                      
AN ANOMALOUS CHILL WILL ALSO BE FELT TODAY WITH HIGHS ANYWHERE                  
FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE CHILL AND GUSTY WINDS              
YESTERDAY MORE REMINISCENT OF MARCH THAN LATE MAY...IT SEEMS KIND               
OF GROSS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...IN THIS FORECASTER`S OPINION OF                 
COURSE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                       
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW FOR THE COMPLETE                        
ELIMINATION OF THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SEEMS                  
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH                     
TERRAIN...VERY MUCH AS WE ARE ACCUSTOMED TO SEEING WITH A COLD                  
SEASON CYCLONE.                                                                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND PREV               
SHIFTS WORKED A MIX OF WET SNOW INTO THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS               
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE SNOW AND              
I JUST CANNOT BRING MYSELF TO MENTION THE WORD IN A FORECAST THIS               
LATE IN THE YEAR WITH VERY GOOD CAUSE. SOME CHILLY SHOWERS IS BAD               
ENOUGH I SUPPOSE AS PEOPLE START TO THINK MORE ABOUT PLANTING                   
GARDENS THAN SEEING WINTRY PRECIP THIS LATE IN THE YEAR.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH...2-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL...WILL CONTINUE               
TO SPIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE WEEK...BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING OFF                 
THE NERN COAST. WITH A SEEMING NEVER ENDING SUPPLY OF WEAK UPPER                
IMPULSES UNTIL THE LOW MOVES EAST...WE KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIP               
IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY              
TEMPS. THE PROMISE OF A RETURN TO NORMALCY IS SEEN IN THE EXTENDED              
AS THE GEFS SHUNTS THE LOW EAST AND PUSHES A HUGE RIDGE THRU THE                
GR LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN US. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR                  
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS ONLY TEMPORARY AS IT WANTS TO                       
REESTABLISH A TROF OVER SERN CANADA AND NERN US BY MID NEXT WEEK.               
FAR ENUF AWAY TO NOT WORRY TOO MUCH ABOUT AT THIS POINT...BUT                   
STILL I`D LIKE TO SEE A PATTERN THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE LATE MAY THAN              
MARCH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR CONDS AT ALL AIRFIELDS IN CENTRAL PA THRU 10Z. RUC ANALYSIS                 
INDICATED SFC LOW NEAR CENTRAL KY...EXPECTED TO SLIDE NE INTO                   
NORTH CENTRAL VA BY THIS AFTN. HIGH LVL MOISTURE NOT ASSOCIATED                 
WITH SFC FEATURE WAS PUSHING SCT/BKN DECK AT 10KFT INTO WESTERN PA              
AT 06Z. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO SLIDING              
EAST. EXPECT CONDS TO DETERIORATE SHORTLY AFT 10Z WITH VFR TEMPO                
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KIPT...WITH STEADIER SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH                    
RESULTING IN IFR CIGS FOR REMAINING TAF SITES.                                  
SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY SWING NE THRU DELMARVA BY TUE EVE...PULLING                
LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME RESIDUAL LOW CIGS AT                         
KJST/KAOO/KMDT/KIPT...WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR BY SUNRISE WED.              
UPPER LVL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL SLIDE SE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY                     
THUR/FRI...SENDING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS OHIO RVR                    
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE FROM THESE WAVES APPEARS               
TO BE LACKING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT THOUGH THAT VFR               
WILL PERSIST WED/THUR/FRI WITH JUST SCT -SHRA ALONG THE FAVORED                 
UPSLOPE AIRFIELDS OF KBFD/KJST. THIS MAY BE ENUF TO PRODUCE TEMPO               
MVFR CONDS AT THESE SITES AS WELL EACH DAY.                                     
CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST                    
FRI/SAT...PUSHING THE UPPER LVL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND EAST TOWARDS               
ATLANTIC. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE MINIMAL CLOUDS AND SOLID VFR SAT.                 
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ041-042.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE                                                              
NEAR TERM...LACORTE                                                             
SHORT TERM...LACORTE                                                            
LONG TERM...LACORTE                                                             
AVIATION...BEACHLER                                                             
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
156 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST               
U.S. WILL KEEP IT COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER A                  
CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL HEAD                     
SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. THIS              
WEATHER FEATURE WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS                   
MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                
MORE INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF              
INTERSTATE 80. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED                    
SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME WET SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLY              
MIXED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES          
MAY MODERATE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THE UPPER                 
LEVEL LOW WILL BE TOUGH TO DISPLACE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
SCT-BKN STRATO CU CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE                 
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH THE COLDEST 925-850 HPA AIR.                  
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF               
TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SW QUARTER OF THE STATE WHERE                  
BKN ALTO CU WILL OCCUR.                                                         
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY THIS EVENING WILL SLACKEN              
TO AROUND 5 KTS AS THEY BACK TO THE SOUTH/SW...AND EVEN BECOME                  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.                            
TEMPS WILL DIPPING INTO THE 30S OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF MY                   
FORECAST AREA. SULLIVAN AND NORTHERN LYCOMING COUNTIES WILL BE                  
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST AND SINCE THEIR GROWING SEASON HAS JUST                    
OFFICIALLY BEGUN...HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TONIGHT              
THROUGH 9AM TUE.                                                                
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 120 KT JET AT 250 HPA WILL              
DIVE SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT AND LINK UP WITH THE                   
THERMALLY DIRECT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SLOWLY LIFTING EAST/WEST            
JET MAX FROM NEPA TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. CLOUDS WILL                     
THICKEN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING                   
HOURS TUESDAY WITH A SHIELD OF RAIN SLOWLY EDGING TO THE NE ACROSS              
THE CWA. 15Z SREF AND 18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW A VERY            
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE                       
STATE...TO MAINLY HIGH 60-70 POPS FOR "LIGHT" RAIN JUST TO THE                  
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.                                                         
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE 290-300K THETA LAYER                       
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A SWRLY 40-45 JET WILL OCCUR BETWEEN                
11-16Z (ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW ZONES)...AND A FEW HRS LATER                  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.                                       
STORM TOTAL QPF BY TUESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM SEVERAL                      
HUNDREDTHS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF ROUTE 6 IN NRN PENN...TO                    
AROUND 0.25" JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AROUND 0.50" OF RAINFALL              
IS POSSIBLE ALONG PA/MD BORDER.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                                 
POPS WILL DECREASE TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND LAUREL              
HIGHLANDS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT (AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT                   
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES) AS ANOTHER COLD SURGE DROPS                    
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO               
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION                 
TWD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND THE AIR JUST A FEW KFT AGL WILL                    
BECOME COLD ENOUGH AGAIN TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS                 
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS UNTIL AROUND 14-15Z WED.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
ANOMOLOUS UPPER TROUGH /2SD BELOW NORMAL/ WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN                 
OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE WEEK...WEAKENING A LITTLE TUE BUT                         
RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY MIDWEEK AS SECOND WAVE ROTATES THROUGH.               
BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE U.S. WILL REINFORCE THE LOW OVER THE               
NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE WILL GAIN A BIT OF NEGATIVE TILT AT MIDWEEK                
BEFORE FINALLY BROADENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST FOR THE              
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA SLIDES THROUGH               
SOUTHERN PORTIONS MON INTO WED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM              
THE NW.                                                                         
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WORKWEEK BUT THEN                
AN IMPROVEMENT TO SOME AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE                
WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LINGER WED THANKS TO COLD AIR/INSTABILITY                 
ALOFT...BUT THEN A DRY WEEKEND IN STORE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR CONDS AT ALL AIRFIELDS IN CENTRAL PA THRU 10Z. RUC ANALYSIS                 
INDICATED SFC LOW NEAR CENTRAL KY...EXPECTED TO SLIDE NE INTO                   
NORTH CENTRAL VA BY THIS AFTN. HIGH LVL MOISTURE NOT ASSOCIATED                 
WITH SFC FEATURE WAS PUSHING SCT/BKN DECK AT 10KFT INTO WESTERN PA              
AT 06Z. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO SLIDING              
EAST. EXPECT CONDS TO DETERIORATE SHORTLY AFT 10Z WITH VFR TEMPO                
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KIPT...WITH STEADIER SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH                    
RESULTING IN IFR CIGS FOR REMAINING TAF SITES.                                  
SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY SWING NE THRU DELMARVA BY TUE EVE...PULLING                
LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME RESIDUAL LOW CIGS AT                         
KJST/KAOO/KMDT/KIPT...WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR BY SUNRISE WED.              
UPPER LVL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL SLIDE SE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY                     
THUR/FRI...SENDING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS OHIO RVR                    
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE FROM THESE WAVES APPEARS               
TO BE LACKING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT THOUGH THAT VFR               
WILL PERSIST WED/THUR/FRI WITH JUST SCT -SHRA ALONG THE FAVORED                 
UPSLOPE AIRFIELDS OF KBFD/KJST. THIS MAY BE ENUF TO PRODUCE TEMPO               
MVFR CONDS AT THESE SITES AS WELL EACH DAY.                                     
CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST                    
FRI/SAT...PUSHING THE UPPER LVL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND EAST TOWARDS               
ATLANTIC. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE MINIMAL CLOUDS AND SOLID VFR SAT.                 
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ041-042.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR                                                          
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT                                                      
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT                                                     
LONG TERM...RXR                                                                 
AVIATION...BEACHLER                                                             
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
525 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
9Z RUC 850-1000MB THICKNESS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE              
SW SUGGEST PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TOO COOL. HAVE             
BUMPED UP HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES IN THE SW ZONES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS              
NW TEXAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF YESTERDAY/S REMNANT THERMAL CYCLONE                
NOW LOCATED SW OF WICHITA FALLS. SOUTHWARD FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL                
BE AUGMENTED BY VEERING MID LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK                    
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AXIS OF                 
WARMEST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD FROM               
THE NW ZONES INTO THE SW ZONES DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...HIGHS                
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT A COUPLE               
DEGREES WARMER OVER THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WACO SHOULD                   
BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 95 LAST SET IN 1996. AN ISOLATED SHOWER              
OR STORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CIN               
MAY BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFTING SUPPORT                  
WARRANTS NO INCLUSION OF POPS IN THE WORDED FORECAST ATTM.                      
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS                     
EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN               
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION AND THEREFORE WEDNESDAY HIGH                  
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. A DEVELOPING LARGE AND DEEP UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO               
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW              
TEMPERATURES AND LATE NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS WILL BE THE RESULT.                 
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH                 
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                             
THE CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK RATHER LOW AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM FAILS                 
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE               
MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION                  
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR                   
CONVECTION...CIN WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER              
LEVEL LIFT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT ISOLATED                
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20                   
PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE THEREAFTER.               
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  66  92  74  92 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
WACO, TX              99  67  92  73  92 /   5   5  10  10  20                  
PARIS, TX             89  59  87  68  89 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
DENTON, TX            93  62  91  73  92 /  10   5   5   5  20                  
MCKINNEY, TX          91  61  90  72  90 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
DALLAS, TX            94  67  92  74  92 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
TERRELL, TX           92  62  90  72  91 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         94  64  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            97  68  92  72  92 /   5   5  10  10  20                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
1009 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT NEAR THE               
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE STATE-LINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S                  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN KENTUCKY. RUC                 
MODEL SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST               
AREA TODAY. LAPS DATA SHOWS AIR-MASS DESTABILIZING OVER THE REGION              
WITH CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FORECAST               
AREA BECOMING FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND             
LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF               
THE TENNESSEE VALEY. I EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP              
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT-WAVE               
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON.                             
THERE IS A CONCERN THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE                
GIVEN WET-BULB HEIGHTS OF 10500 FT AND MODERATELY STRONG BOUNDARY               
LAYER WINDS. ALSO...SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID WITH DOWNBURST              
POTENTIAL. WILL UPGRADE HWO WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER                
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERESTATE 40.                          
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM 850 TO              
700 MB LEVELS IS GENERATING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE OHIO             
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AT THIS TIME. THUS...                  
ONGOING CONVECTION IS HOLDING TOGETHER AND MOVING EAST ACROSS MOST              
OF SWRN VA AND PARTS OF NE TN...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED.             
ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS               
CONVECTION...THEN GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ALL AREAS FOR MID MORNING              
...AND THEN TRENDED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEW               
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THAT COVERAGE MAY            
STAY SCATTERED OR SO...BUT KEPT A SMALL POCKET OF LIKELY POPS FOR               
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS. GFS MOS MAX TEMPS RECOVERED                     
YESTERDAY AND PERFORMED QUITE WELL. CURRENT TEMPS WERE RUNNING VERY             
MILD WHERE GOOD MIXING WAS NOTED...SO OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO OR JUST              
ABOVE THE GFS MAXES FOR TODAY.                                                  
THE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LAKE WIND AND WIND                   
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM EDT. LOW LEVEL JET IS STRONGEST               
THIS MORNING...WITH AREA OBSERVATIONS (ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE              
2500 FEET) SHOWING STRONG SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND HIGHER GUSTS EASILY              
IN AVDISORY RANGE. I EXPECT THE STRONGER SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO OCCUR              
THROUGH 16Z TO 18Z TODAY...THEN SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN WINDS                  
EXCEPT WHERE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS. I WILL LET THE LAKE WIND AND                
WIND ADVISORIES RUN THROUGH 4PM EDT...BUT DAY SHIFT SHOULD BE ABLE              
TO END THESE ADVISORIES A LITTLE BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS ISSUED.            
FOR TONIGHT...MAY SEE LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE A GRADUAL CLEARING               
AND THIS IS GENERALLY WHAT CURRENT GRIDS INDICATED. THUS...LITTLE               
CHANGES MADE FOR TONIGHT WITH A MOS BLEND GOOD FOR MINS.                        
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH               
GREAT LAKES CYCLONE STILL HAVING EFFECTS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER             
AREA.  WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST               
PART OF CWA DUE TO MOIST AIR MASS AND BUSY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER                
THAT PART OF THE AREA...THINK THAT LITTLE IMPULSES PLUS DIURNAL                 
HEATING COULD GET SOME SHOWERS GOING.  FOR THURSDAY ALSO HAVE POPS              
SPREADING IN FROM SOUTHWEST AS STABLE LIFT OF MOIST AIR RIDES UP                
ISENTROPIC SURFACE.  THINK ALL PRECIP THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN.  BY                
FRIDAY...MOIST AIR ALOFT IS RICH ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME ELEVATED AND             
POSSIBLY SURFACE INSTABILITY...SO HAVE ISOLATED STORMS MENTIONED                
WHERE FOR MUCH OF AREA.  NORTHEAST AREAS LOOK TO HAVE LESS POPS                 
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON                  
FRIDAY AS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS PRETTY VIGOROUS...JUST LACKING TOO              
MUCH MOISTURE TO INCLUDE POPS THERE FOR NOW.                                    
GOOD DRY PUSH OF SURFACE AIR AS FRONT MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY                       
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM WEST.                   
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.  FOR TEMPS                
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WITH A LITTLE COOLER FOR HIGHS NEAR KCHA               
THURSDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED THICK CLOUD COVER.  ALSO...WENT A LITTLE            
COOLER FOR SATURDAY LOWS/HIGHS...JUST THINKING MODELS ARE                       
UNDERESTIMATING COOLNESS OF THIS AIR MASS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  55  76  52  78 /  40  20  10  10  40    
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  52  73  49  75 /  50  20  10  10  20    
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  51  74  49  74 /  50  20  10  10  20    
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              74  49  66  43  71 /  20  20  20  10  20    
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.                                                    
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...                   
     EAST POLK...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST                   
     CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.                     
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR            
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...                       
     CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...                    
     HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...                  
     MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...                      
     NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...                   
     NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...                 
     SULLIVAN...UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.                              
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: WISE.                                                               
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DH                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
933 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED NEAR THE RED RIVER AT THE PRESENT               
TIME. 12Z OUN AND FWD SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY SHALLOW SURFACE                  
MOISTURE...AND A LARGE DRY SLOT UP TO AROUND 15KFT. MID LEVEL                   
CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ALONG WITH WEAK ECHOES ACROSS                
OKLAHOMA. SURFACE OBS IN OKLAHOMA VERIFY THAT THESE MID LEVEL                   
ECHOES ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND PRESENTLY. THEREFORE...WILL NOT              
INTRODUCE ANY MENTION IN WEATHER GRIDS UNLESS TRENDS SIGNIFICANTLY              
CHANGE.                                                                         
IF WE DO MANAGE TO GET ISOLATED CONVECTION GOING BY MIDDAY...BRIEF              
GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO OUR SOUNDING PROFILE.                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.                     
AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER OUR SOUTHERN HALF...AS                  
850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 20S SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                 
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL BE TEMPERED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...                  
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS LOOK                 
REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.                      
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO FORECAST REQUIRING A ZONE UPDATE...BUT WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH MID LEVEL ECHOES.                               
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                         
AVIATION... /12Z UPDATE/                                                        
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO                
BECOME NORTHEAST BY 17Z. SOME SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS BY                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR A VERY ISOLATED                         
SHOWER/TSTM ALONG FRONT THIS AFTN BUT OTHERWISE NO SIG AVIATION                 
CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                         
91/DUNN                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                          
9Z RUC 850-1000MB THICKNESS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                  
THE SW SUGGEST PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TOO COOL.              
HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES IN THE SW ZONES.                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                          
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED                     
ACROSS NW TEXAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF YESTERDAY/S REMNANT THERMAL                 
CYCLONE NOW LOCATED SW OF WICHITA FALLS. SOUTHWARD FRONTAL                      
MOVEMENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY VEERING MID LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE                
TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE               
AXIS OF WARMEST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE SHUNTED                      
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NW ZONES INTO THE SW ZONES DURING THE DAY.                   
THEREFORE...HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN                
CWA...BUT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER OVER THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT. WACO SHOULD BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 95 LAST SET IN 1996.              
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS               
AFTERNOON WHEN CIN MAY BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL               
LIFTING SUPPORT WARRANTS NO INCLUSION OF POPS IN THE WORDED                     
FORECAST ATTM.                                                                  
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS                     
EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN               
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION AND THEREFORE WEDNESDAY HIGH                  
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. A DEVELOPING LARGE AND DEEP UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO               
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW              
TEMPERATURES AND LATE NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS WILL BE THE RESULT.                 
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH                 
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                             
THE CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK RATHER LOW AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM FAILS                 
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE               
MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION                  
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR                   
CONVECTION...CIN WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER              
LEVEL LIFT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT ISOLATED                
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20                   
PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE THEREAFTER.               
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  66  92  74  92 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
WACO, TX              99  67  92  73  92 /   5   5  10  10  20                  
PARIS, TX             89  59  87  68  89 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
DENTON, TX            93  62  91  73  92 /  10   5   5   5  20                  
MCKINNEY, TX          91  61  90  72  90 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
DALLAS, TX            94  67  92  74  92 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
TERRELL, TX           92  62  90  72  91 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         94  64  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            97  68  92  72  92 /   5   5  10  10  20                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
617 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                      
.AVIATION... /12Z UPDATE/                                                       
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO                
BECOME NORTHEAST BY 17Z. SOME SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS BY                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR A VERY ISOLATED                         
SHOWER/TSTM ALONG FRONT THIS AFTN BUT OTHERWISE NO SIG AVIATION                 
CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                         
91/DUNN                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                         
9Z RUC 850-1000MB THICKNESS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                  
THE SW SUGGEST PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TOO COOL.              
HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES IN THE SW ZONES.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                         
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED                     
ACROSS NW TEXAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF YESTERDAY/S REMNANT THERMAL                 
CYCLONE NOW LOCATED SW OF WICHITA FALLS. SOUTHWARD FRONTAL                      
MOVEMENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY VEERING MID LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE                
TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE               
AXIS OF WARMEST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE SHUNTED                      
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NW ZONES INTO THE SW ZONES DURING THE DAY.                   
THEREFORE...HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN                
CWA...BUT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER OVER THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT. WACO SHOULD BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 95 LAST SET IN 1996.              
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS               
AFTERNOON WHEN CIN MAY BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL               
LIFTING SUPPORT WARRANTS NO INCLUSION OF POPS IN THE WORDED                     
FORECAST ATTM.                                                                  
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS                     
EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN               
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION AND THEREFORE WEDNESDAY HIGH                  
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. A DEVELOPING LARGE AND DEEP UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO               
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW              
TEMPERATURES AND LATE NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS WILL BE THE RESULT.                 
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH                 
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                             
THE CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK RATHER LOW AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM FAILS                 
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE               
MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION                  
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR                   
CONVECTION...CIN WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER              
LEVEL LIFT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT ISOLATED                
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20                   
PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE THEREAFTER.               
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  66  92  74  92 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
WACO, TX              99  67  92  73  92 /   5   5  10  10  20                  
PARIS, TX             89  59  87  68  89 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
DENTON, TX            93  62  91  73  92 /  10   5   5   5  20                  
MCKINNEY, TX          91  61  90  72  90 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
DALLAS, TX            94  67  92  74  92 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
TERRELL, TX           92  62  90  72  91 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         94  64  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            97  68  92  72  92 /   5   5  10  10  20                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
92/91                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
322 PM PDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE WITH COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTH THROUGH LASSEN              
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES. NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA IS AT 10-12 MILLIBARS. USING THE 2PM OBSERVATIONS             
FROM LOVELOCK AND ALTURAS THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT                 
WAS NEARLY 40 DEGREES. WINDS ARE RESPONDING TO THIS WITH GUSTS                  
NEAR 45 MPH ALONG I-80 AND US-50. FARTHER SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN                 
SLOW TO RESPOND...BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE STRONG FRONT NEARS.                  
WILL KEEP THE GUSTS TO 50 MPH GOING...BUT WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY               
HIGHER AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.                                  
A COUPLE OF IMPRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT               
IN LASSEN COUNTY. STORMS HAD EXCELLENT ROTATION AND DEVELOPED VERY              
QUICKLY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE COMMON THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG               
THE FRONT...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE PLENTY              
OF SHEAR AVAILABLE TO THEM...AND ALSO MOVE VERY QUICKLY. STORM                  
MOTION CALCULATED OFF THE RUC13 IS NEAR 40 KTS.                                 
UNCERTAINLY REMAINS IN THE POSITION OF ENERGY THAT FILLS INTO THE               
TROUGH AS IT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE               
NEXT FEW DAYS. DOES APPEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESPOND TO                      
AFTERNOON HEATING AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE. STILL                
COULD SEE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE                 
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TOO DRY AND SUBSIDENT TO GET ANY SHOWERS.               
MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA ON                
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT ADD THUNDER YET AS MODELS CONTINUE TO                      
FLUCTUATE.                                                                      
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONT                   
PASSES AND SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY. COULD BE ENOUGH                  
FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE              
GRADIENT REMAINS...BUT THINKING IS WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW                 
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                    
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS                 
WITH THE COLD POOL AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING SURFACE HEATING. DID                
LEAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY.                   
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IF                 
SKIES CLEAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S...EXCEPT THE              
LARGE POPULATION CENTERS. IF YOU DO HAVE PLANTS OUTSIDE...BRING                 
THEM IN OR COVER TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COOL TEMPERATURES THE                 
NEXT 3 NIGHTS. BRONG                                                            
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                        
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  ON SATURDAY             
THE DEEP UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO STILL BE OVER THE WRN CONUS.  THE              
GFS HAS 500 MB HEIGHTS DROPPING TO 552 DAM OVER THE NRN SIERRA BY               
18Z SATURDAY.  THE HIGH SUN ANGLES THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL HELP THE              
LWR AIR MASS TO STAY WARM WITH AFTN HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER              
60S TO AROUND 70 IN WRN NEVADA VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW            
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.  HOWEVER THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO                   
INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY VALUES.  WILL                   
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ON              
SATURDAY.                                                                       
WITH NO SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST                     
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY.  SCT SHRA            
AND TSTMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.  ON MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF            
HAVE AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA.  A COLD FRONT IS              
PROGGED TO REACH THE OREGON COAST LATE ON MONDAY.  AN UPPER JET                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE LOW OVER THE                
GREAT BASIN AND FINALLY MOVE IT TO THE EAST.  COLD AIR WILL REMAIN              
ALOFT HOWEVER ON MONDAY AND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTRIBUTING                   
PVA...WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF             
SHRA AND TSTMS.                                                                 
BY TUESDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD SHARPLY AMPLIFY AS ANOTHER               
LOW DEEPENS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.  SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER               
TROUGH WILL BRING WAA TO THE WRN GREAT BASIN.  AFTN TEMPERATURES IN             
WRN NEVADA SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY WITH DRY                   
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.  O`HARA               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH COLD FRONTAL              
PASSAGE THIS EVENING LCL WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL                
05Z.  O`HARA                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RH VALUES HAVE REMAINED VERY LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                    
PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD             
FRONT. SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ZONES 453/459             
PER OBS AND RTMA. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT HOWEVER...RH VALUES             
WILL RECOVER QUICKLY. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS IN LASSEN-WASHOE                    
COUNTIES MAY SEE 24HR RH INCREASES OF 50% OR MORE COMPARED TO LAST              
NIGHT! STRONG SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING                
HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NW AND DECREASING            
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS REMAINING             
GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO                    
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20% WITHIN A COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS.           
CS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001-003-004.             
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002.                
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.                     
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ072.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO                                                         
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS EDGED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS             
AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH COOLING                 
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO            
MID 90S WITH EASTERLY WINDS...AS OPPOSED TO READINGS NEAR OR ABOVE              
100 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU/ALTOCU ARE                      
DEVELOPING MAINLY FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS             
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN NEGATIVE LI/S AND STEEP LAPSE                      
RATES...AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH            
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO RAIN WOULD OCCUR...BUT                  
OCCASIONAL DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE A               
POSSIBILITY IF A STORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP.                                      
AFTERNOON RUC 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                
AXIS NOSING ACROSS WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM...WITH THE CENTER OF THE            
UPPER HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MODEL                     
INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL              
BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS             
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO                  
INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH              
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY/DEEPEN ACROSS NV/UT/FOUR CORNERS REGION. DRY AIR              
AT THE SURFACE IS STILL EXPECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE                 
CWFA...WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AN INCREASING               
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING WINDY                  
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW               
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH HIGHS               
LIKELY EXCEEDING 100 F AGAIN OVER MANY LOCATIONS. WILL ALSO MENTION             
THAT ANOTHER HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE              
REALM OF POSSIBILITY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE               
REGION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO                
MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT DID KEEP TRIVIAL LOW POPS.                 
ALSO OF CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS            
THE GUADALUPE MTNS. MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH                  
STRONGER 700 MB WINDS...GENERALLY AROUND 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE                    
GUADALUPES. VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE MORE IN AGREEMENT ON A             
MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT...SO HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH                     
EFFECTIVE FROM 17Z TO 02Z.                                                      
ANOTHER WINDY AND DRY DAY LOOKS PROBABLE FOR THURSDAY. THE SURFACE              
LEE TROUGH WILL HOLD STRONG ACROSS WEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM...WITH                  
BREEZY S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL                   
RIDGING WILL LIKELY BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN...ALBEIT              
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE                  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A MORE               
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN BACK TO THE REGION                
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK TO             
A MORE S/SW DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY...AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS             
WITHIN THE FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                
STILL APPEAR REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE             
REGION. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK             
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. ONE CONCERN WILL BE A                     
WESTWARD  BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT                
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL PROGS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL                    
PRIMARILY REMAIN TO OUR EAST...WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND                      
INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA...SO ISOLATED                 
STORMS WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
FIRE WX CONCERNS CONTINUE TO ESCALATE ACRS THE AREA WITH NEAR RECORD            
TEMPS...INCREASING WINDS...AND SINGLE DIGIT RH. UNSEASONAL HOT SPELL            
HAS DEVELOPED ACRS W TX/SE NM IN RESPONSE TO PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL              
ANTICYCLONE AND WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. AIR HAS BEEN STAGNANT ACRS THE              
HIER ELEVATIONS OF THE SWRN STATES ALLOWING IT REALLY HEAT UP AT                
7H...14C AS FAR E AS MAF TDY. STILL HAVE LOW PROBABILITY CONCERNS               
FOR DRY LIGHTNING TDY WITH CU FIELD SHOWING SIGNS OF ENHANCEMENT IN             
SAC MTNS...NEAR ALPINE...AND GLASS MTNS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK             
DOWN QUICKLY WED AS SHARP MID LEVEL TROF NEARS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.            
AS SW MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES E OF SAID TROF THESE INCREDIBLY WARM             
7H TEMPS WILL BE ADVECTED E INTO SE NM/W TX WED WITH NAM DEPICTING              
7H THERMAL RIDGE OF 16C ALONG TX/NM BORDER. THIS IS A CRITICAL FIRE             
WX PATTERN...BREAK DOWN OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL INDUCE                
IMPRESSIVE 12HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 16MB. THIS ALONG WITH TIGHTENING              
MSLP GRADIENT AND MIXING OF 25-30KT 85H-7H WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT             
FOR SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ACRS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THESE MID TEEN              
7H TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND SINGLE DIGIT RH                
PROVIDING A REAL TEST FOR CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WITHIN THE SFC TROF             
AXIS ACRS PARTS OF THE TRANS PECOS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THOUGH AND             
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THOSE AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH/WARNING FOR NOW.             
SIMILAR OCCURRENCE THURS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS                 
BETTER 5H HGHT FALLS MOVE INTO AREA AND 7H TEMPS COOL. ATTP                     
CONFIDENCE IS HIER WITH THE WED FCST. THUR...5H TROF WILL BE CLOSE              
ENOUGH TO INCREASE MID LEVEL LIFT (SEE 7H OMEGA) AND INHIBIT OR                 
DELAY MIXING...AND MSLP GRADIENT WON/T BE AS GOOD. STILL 25KTS                  
85H-7H WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH. TEMPS             
IN M90S WILL ENUF FOR MIN RH/S TO FALL BLO 10 PCT AGAIN. WINDS WILL             
BE STRONGER FARTHER S AND WILL ISSUE FIRE WX WATCH FOR THURSDAY                 
THAT WILL ENCOMPASS A GREATER AREA...SOUTH TO THE RIO GRANDE.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              67 102  69  97  /   0  10  10  10                    
CARLSBAD NM                62 102  66  94  /   0   0  10   0                    
DRYDEN TX                  66 102  69  99  /   0  10  10  10                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           67 104  69  99  /   0  10  10  10                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  97  60  89  /   0   0  10   0                    
HOBBS NM                   63 103  64  93  /   0  10  10  10                    
MARFA TX                   54  96  52  90  /   0  10  10   0                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66 102  68  97  /   0  10  10  10                    
ODESSA TX                  67 102  69  97  /   0  10  10  10                    
WINK TX                    66 108  68 102  /   0  10  10  10                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...                 
     SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.                                          
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE                  
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...                 
     SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.                                          
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.                      
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /12 PM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM             
     MDT/ THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BIG BEND                 
     AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...                     
     DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...               
     HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...                      
     MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY                
     AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN                
     AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.                                  
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM              
     MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...               
     CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE                    
     MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...               
     REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...                   
     UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.                 
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
49/21                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1142 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
S/W IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IT PUSH SEWD ACROSS SE OK/NE-E               
TX THROUGH 00Z. AS IT DOES SO...CURRENT WK CD FNT DRAPED JUST W-N               
OF D/FW METRO SHOULD GET MOVING THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH N              
WNDS 5-10 KTS...GOING NE 10-14 KTS...WITH A FEW GSTS TO 18-20 KTS               
PSBLE WITH MIXING.                                                              
PATCHY ACCAS WITH SOME CC/CS CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTN WITH             
SOME ISOLD VIRGA PSBL AND AN ISOLD TS/CG STRIKE OR TWO PSBL ONCE MAX            
HEATING OCCURS BY 21Z. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH               
FOR MENTION IN D/FW AIRPORT TAFS ATTM. VFR TO RULE...THOUGH BRIEF               
MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY ARND 12Z WED KACT VCNTY.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
TEMPERATURES ON A SLOWER WARMING TREND THIS MORNING THAN THIS TIME              
YESTERDAY. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...IT APPEARS RATHER DIFFICULT                
FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES. AS             
A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.                        
SCHULTZ                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED NEAR THE RED RIVER AT THE PRESENT               
TIME. 12Z OUN AND FWD SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY SHALLOW SURFACE                  
MOISTURE...AND A LARGE DRY SLOT UP TO AROUND 15KFT. MID LEVEL                   
CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ALONG WITH WEAK ECHOES ACROSS                
OKLAHOMA. SURFACE OBS IN OKLAHOMA VERIFY THAT THESE MID LEVEL                   
ECHOES ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND PRESENTLY. THEREFORE...WILL NOT              
INTRODUCE ANY MENTION IN WEATHER GRIDS UNLESS TRENDS SIGNIFICANTLY              
CHANGE.                                                                         
IF WE DO MANAGE TO GET ISOLATED CONVECTION GOING BY MIDDAY...BRIEF              
GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO OUR SOUNDING PROFILE.                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.                     
AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER OUR SOUTHERN HALF...AS                  
850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 20S SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                 
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL BE TEMPERED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...                  
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS LOOK                 
REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.                      
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO FORECAST REQUIRING A ZONE UPDATE...BUT WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH MID LEVEL ECHOES.                               
SCHULTZ                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                          
AVIATION... /12Z UPDATE/                                                        
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO                
BECOME NORTHEAST BY 17Z. SOME SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS BY                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR A VERY ISOLATED                         
SHOWER/TSTM ALONG FRONT THIS AFTN BUT OTHERWISE NO SIG AVIATION                 
CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                         
91/DUNN                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                          
9Z RUC 850-1000MB THICKNESS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                  
THE SW SUGGEST PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TOO COOL.              
HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES IN THE SW ZONES.                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                          
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED                     
ACROSS NW TEXAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF YESTERDAY/S REMNANT THERMAL                 
CYCLONE NOW LOCATED SW OF WICHITA FALLS. SOUTHWARD FRONTAL                      
MOVEMENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY VEERING MID LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE                
TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE               
AXIS OF WARMEST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE SHUNTED                      
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NW ZONES INTO THE SW ZONES DURING THE DAY.                   
THEREFORE...HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN                
CWA...BUT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER OVER THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT. WACO SHOULD BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 95 LAST SET IN 1996.              
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS               
AFTERNOON WHEN CIN MAY BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL               
LIFTING SUPPORT WARRANTS NO INCLUSION OF POPS IN THE WORDED                     
FORECAST ATTM.                                                                  
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS                     
EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN               
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION AND THEREFORE WEDNESDAY HIGH                  
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. A DEVELOPING LARGE AND DEEP UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO               
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW              
TEMPERATURES AND LATE NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS WILL BE THE RESULT.                 
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH                 
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                             
THE CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK RATHER LOW AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM FAILS                 
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE               
MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION                  
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR                   
CONVECTION...CIN WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER              
LEVEL LIFT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT ISOLATED                
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20                   
PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE THEREAFTER.               
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  66  92  74  92 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
WACO, TX              95  67  92  73  92 /   5   5  10  10  20                  
PARIS, TX             89  59  87  68  89 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
DENTON, TX            93  62  91  73  92 /  10   5   5   5  20                  
MCKINNEY, TX          91  61  90  72  90 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
DALLAS, TX            93  67  92  74  92 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
TERRELL, TX           92  62  90  72  91 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         93  64  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  92  72  92 /   5   5  10  10  20                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/99/05                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1131 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TEMPERATURES ON A SLOWER WARMING TREND THIS MORNING THAN THIS TIME              
YESTERDAY. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...IT APPEARS RATHER DIFFICULT                
FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES. AS             
A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.                        
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED NEAR THE RED RIVER AT THE PRESENT               
TIME. 12Z OUN AND FWD SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY SHALLOW SURFACE                  
MOISTURE...AND A LARGE DRY SLOT UP TO AROUND 15KFT. MID LEVEL                   
CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ALONG WITH WEAK ECHOES ACROSS                
OKLAHOMA. SURFACE OBS IN OKLAHOMA VERIFY THAT THESE MID LEVEL                   
ECHOES ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND PRESENTLY. THEREFORE...WILL NOT              
INTRODUCE ANY MENTION IN WEATHER GRIDS UNLESS TRENDS SIGNIFICANTLY              
CHANGE.                                                                         
IF WE DO MANAGE TO GET ISOLATED CONVECTION GOING BY MIDDAY...BRIEF              
GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO OUR SOUNDING PROFILE.                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.                     
AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER OUR SOUTHERN HALF...AS                  
850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 20S SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                 
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL BE TEMPERED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...                  
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS LOOK                 
REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.                      
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO FORECAST REQUIRING A ZONE UPDATE...BUT WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH MID LEVEL ECHOES.                               
SCHULTZ                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                          
AVIATION... /12Z UPDATE/                                                        
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO                
BECOME NORTHEAST BY 17Z. SOME SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS BY                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR A VERY ISOLATED                         
SHOWER/TSTM ALONG FRONT THIS AFTN BUT OTHERWISE NO SIG AVIATION                 
CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                         
91/DUNN                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                          
9Z RUC 850-1000MB THICKNESS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                  
THE SW SUGGEST PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TOO COOL.              
HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES IN THE SW ZONES.                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/                          
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED                     
ACROSS NW TEXAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF YESTERDAY/S REMNANT THERMAL                 
CYCLONE NOW LOCATED SW OF WICHITA FALLS. SOUTHWARD FRONTAL                      
MOVEMENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY VEERING MID LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE                
TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE               
AXIS OF WARMEST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE SHUNTED                      
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NW ZONES INTO THE SW ZONES DURING THE DAY.                   
THEREFORE...HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN                
CWA...BUT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER OVER THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT. WACO SHOULD BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 95 LAST SET IN 1996.              
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS               
AFTERNOON WHEN CIN MAY BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL               
LIFTING SUPPORT WARRANTS NO INCLUSION OF POPS IN THE WORDED                     
FORECAST ATTM.                                                                  
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS                     
EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN               
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION AND THEREFORE WEDNESDAY HIGH                  
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. A DEVELOPING LARGE AND DEEP UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO               
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW              
TEMPERATURES AND LATE NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS WILL BE THE RESULT.                 
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH                 
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                             
THE CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK RATHER LOW AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM FAILS                 
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE               
MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION                  
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR                   
CONVECTION...CIN WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER              
LEVEL LIFT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT ISOLATED                
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20                   
PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE THEREAFTER.               
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  66  92  74  92 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
WACO, TX              95  67  92  73  92 /   5   5  10  10  20                  
PARIS, TX             89  59  87  68  89 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
DENTON, TX            93  62  91  73  92 /  10   5   5   5  20                  
MCKINNEY, TX          91  61  90  72  90 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
DALLAS, TX            93  67  92  74  92 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
TERRELL, TX           92  62  90  72  91 /  10  10   5   5  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         93  64  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  92  72  92 /   5   5  10  10  20                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx