FXUS04 KWBC 190602
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 19/1200 UTC THRU SEP 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
...PRELIM DAY 1...

WRN U.S EWD INTO THE PLAINS ...
MAIN WEATHER ACTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WRN U.S. THIS PD IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR TROF PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  SEVERAL EMBDD S/WV FEATURES SWINGING AROUND THE
UPR TROF WILL INTERACT WITH DECENT MSTR SURGE WORKING NEWD
FROM NRN MEX.  IN ADDITION..SOME MSTR REMAINING FROM RAPIDLY
SHEARING T.D. JAVIER NEAR THE CNTL BAJA PENINSULA WILL COME
INTO PLAY PRIMARILY ACRS THE SW U.S.  INITIAL S/WV FEATURE MOVING
THRU CA EARLY IN THE PD SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE PCPN AND SW
FLOW ACRS PORTIONS OF AZ INTO SE UT AND SWRN CO DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY..WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE SW FACING
UPSLOPE AREAS OF SW CO AND SE UT WHERE SUSPECT SOME 1 TO 2
INCH CNVTVLY ENHANCED RAINS WILL BE PSBL.  AS S/WV BEGINS TO LIFT
THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EXPECT AREA OF POST FRONTAL
RAINS TO EXPAND ACRS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.    PLACED PCPN
EMPHASIS ALONG FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS AND ALONG WEAK
DEFORMATION BAND EXPECTED AHEAD OF 7H TROF.  FARTHER
EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE ALONG ADVANCING
PAC COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT AS MSTR DEEPENS ALONG STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET.   THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE WAVE FCST TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE FRONT THRU THE
DAKOTAS..BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY IT APPEARS BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND FCST PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES.   

FL...
SHEARING MID LEVEL CENTER OFF THE MID ATLC COAST IS EXPECTED TO
GET CAUGHT IN THE ANTICYCLONIC ROTATING AROUND LARGE UPR HIGH
AND APCH THE EAST FL COAST LATE IN THE PD.  THE COMBINATION OF
THIS FEATURE AND NELY FLOW AROUND LARGE SFC HIGH COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT SHWRS INTO THE COAST.   GIVEN ONLY
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN QPF BETWEEN THE ETA AND GFS..WENT TOWARD
A MODEL BLEND.  

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 521192 522184 521178 516171 512169 508165 502161 497160 
      492160 485162 481168 480177 484193 480197 477199 470203 
      466205 462204 457206 455209 452209 451203 453195 455189 
      460182 462175 464172 469170 470166 473155 477148 478142 
      481140 486141 491140 493133 489126 488121 490120 493117 
      501112 509105 512102 513091 512085 506084 496082 486083 
      476082 467081 465076 464072 468065 474061 480058 488054 
      492052 496050 502045 506038 508034 509030 508028 502018 
      489019 482020 472022 465026 460027 455031 448032 438035 
      432036 429036 426034 420032 417030 415030 412027 406024 
      400023 397021 394021 388023 379025 371029 362032 356036 
      350041 346044 342045 332045 318039 307034 299033 294037 
      293042 295049 297052 300055 305059 311064 314065 315068 
      313069 302069 291069 283072 275070 270070 265071 261075 
      259079 261083 264089 266095 266099 264101 260106 260111 
      268117 276120 290125 305135 311140 315146 320151 329154 
      333155 337155 343151 349148 357148 359151 359156 361159 
      365157 370150 374147 378147 390134 393131 397130 401131 
      405132 403135 400136 393139 390142 389146 392150 392154 
      391157 388160 387163 387168 388170 393169 397173 399176 
      403182 410187 414188 419191 422194 426195 432191 437187 
      439188 440192 442202 442207 441211 432213 425216 420224 
      417225 416220 412216 408211 401205 387191 377185 380201 
      389214 391223 388227 384235 385239 404256 419269 426268 
      433266 445261 460255 466254 473253 482253 489251 492245 
      491238 488235 483233 480227 474225 479221 490224 493225 
      496223 499218 499214 499210 499206 500202 505196 517196 
      521192 
 0.01 449662 448658 445659 438665 422677 395700 381710 373717 
      365721 357724 352726 345731 340738 335749 331762 329769 
      330774 331778 335781 338783 344783 365762 379754 388749 
      396743 406733 418718 434690 442677 448668 449662 
 0.01 511923 510914 507905 503898 501893 498890 494886 490883 
      484881 477880 470879 464880 448884 437890 424901 416909 
      412916 410922 405927 404931 404935 407944 410947 414948 
      418949 426948 443945 448946 454947 464953 474961 484971 
      490974 496974 499972 500968 499961 497954 496943 494933 
      494927 500927 508927 511923 
 0.01 271800 271797 268796 265795 262794 259793 256795 251797 
      248800 245803 243806 241810 242815 242818 245820 249817 
      252814 256812 260808 263805 268803 271800 
 0.01 269992 270987 267980 268974 266969 263966 257962 252962 
      246964 241969 239972 238978 241987 244990 248992 255994 
      263996 267996 269992 
 0.25 502031 496028 487030 479033 473035 467038 459043 459048 
      463049 467048 473046 482044 490041 496039 500037 502031 
      502031 
 0.25 485214 486210 485209 483207 480207 478208 477208 473211 
      471214 473216 475217 478216 479216 482216 485214 485214 
 0.25 465239 464234 459230 450231 441232 431233 426234 420232 
      417232 412234 410238 412242 417249 422252 428251 435250 
      444246 452243 460241 465239 
 0.25 475133 474115 476107 474102 471100 467102 460105 447105 
      443105 439107 435108 432106 425107 420109 416110 412108 
      407103 405106 401107 397107 394110 371115 364114 356111 
      353110 353105 355098 355093 352087 343081 336078 333077 
      329078 321085 316084 310084 305086 299086 291087 286090 
      286095 287099 291103 299111 307117 315127 325135 332138 
      339139 347139 353139 367138 376139 379130 382126 386123 
      398120 404122 412122 417125 419127 422133 428130 431126 
      434120 438116 440117 442120 440125 438128 434137 433144 
      431155 430164 434164 440161 446161 454159 458155 462148 
      469139 475133 
 0.25 401079 403074 403069 400065 395065 389065 385064 381062 
      378060 380056 384050 379047 372045 367041 362041 358043 
      354047 352050 351054 354061 356063 358068 365079 369084 
      372093 375097 378097 381096 392090 398085 401079 
 0.25 333055 330054 327054 325055 327056 330057 333056 333055 
 0.50 443240 443238 440237 438238 439242 442241 443240 
 0.50 438243 436240 433240 431239 428237 425236 422235 419235 
      416235 416236 415239 415240 418243 420245 423247 426247 
      429246 432245 433244 436244 438243 
 0.50 386120 368118 357114 352111 349107 347102 347096 344092 
      341085 335081 329082 327088 324090 318088 315087 312088 
      310091 307092 303091 299091 300094 302104 303108 306110 
      309113 312117 315120 318123 325125 334129 342133 353134 
      362132 368131 374132 381123 386120 
 0.50 384079 384075 380072 378068 374065 369063 366065 367068 
      369072 372079 374083 376086 380086 382083 384079 
 0.50 367051 366050 365047 363046 361046 358047 357047 355050 
      355051 355052 358053 361053 364052 366051 367051 
 1.00 360125 361121 360120 356117 349111 343103 341094 339089 
      336085 333084 332088 330102 330108 328112 326115 329116 
      334116 338119 340123 343126 347128 353129 357128 360125 
 1.00 317108 317104 317101 316098 316096 313096 312098 312101 
      312104 312107 312108 315110 317108 
 1.50 354120 352117 351117 348116 346113 346112 343110 341113 
      342116 343117 344120 345122 348123 351123 354121 354120  
 
$$