AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
909 AM PDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BRRRRRR!!!! OK THAT`S A LITTLE BIT OF AN EXAGGERATION...BUT I DID               
BREAK OUT THE LONG SLEEVES TODAY. TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE                 
MID 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PARTS OF THE SJV THIS MORNING WITH                  
LOWS IN THE 50S IN MORE URBAN AREAS. THIS COLD PUSH INTO THE AREA               
TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WEST              
COAST. LATEST NCEP ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC FRONT ALREADY HAS PASSED THROUGH          
THE CWFA AND WAS OVER SOCAL. THERE ARE ACTUALLY TWO POCKETS OF POST             
FRONTAL INSTABILITY THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH TODAY. THE MAIN                
POOL WAS OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA. A SECOND COLD POOL ALOFT                 
WAS OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS             
OVER PARTS OF THE SIERRA WITH A FEW DROPS IN THE FOOTHILLS.                     
MESONET/CO-OP DATA INDICATED SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 6500 FEET. HAD               
TWO REPORTS OF SNOW THIS MORNING...ONE EARLIER OF A FEW SNOW                    
GRAINS AT HUME LAKE AND OUR CO-OP OBSERVER AT GRANT GROVE REPORTED              
0.1 INCH OF NEW SNOW. AS FOR PRECIP IN THE VALLEY...IT WILL BE OF               
THE HIT AND MISS VARIETY. RADAR SHOWED SOME SHOWERS WORKING INTO                
STANISLAUS COUNTY...AND THESE COULD CERTAINLY MAKE IT INTO MERCED               
COUNTY SHORTLY. GIVEN ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE           
HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING THE FOOTHILLS SO FAR WHERE THERE HAVE                  
BEEN SHOWERS...WOULD EXPECT QPF IN THE SJV TO BE GENERALLY A FEW                
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST IN SOME SPOTS. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC40 SHOW THE               
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH                   
LI/S PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND -2 TO -4 OVER THE SJV BY 18Z TODAY.              
SO CURRENT MENTION OF SJV TSTMS LOOKS OK UNLESS WE REALLY CLOUD UP              
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
CONCERNING TEMPS...YOU WOULD HAVE TO GO BACK TO MAY 4TH OF THIS                 
YEAR FOR THE LAST TIME FRESNO HAD A HIGH IN THE 60S AND TO MAY 3RD              
FOR BAKERSFIELD. PREVIOUS SHIFT UNDERCUT MOS AND GFS RAW 2 METER                
TEMPS WERE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 64 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH                     
ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND AND PROVIDING WE GET BL WINDS OF AT LEAST 10               
KTS TO KEEP THINGS MIXED GOOD...TEMPS LOOK OK. SPEAKING OF                      
WINDS...HAVE A WIND ADVISORY UP IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND                
DESERTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONLY A FEW SPOTS HAVE BEEN                    
MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AS OF NOW BUT WITH THE FRONT JUST MOVING              
OUT OF THE AREA AND THE SFO-LAS GRADIENT REMAINING AROUND 13 MB                 
TODAY...SHOULD SEE THE ADVISORY WORK OUT IN MOST SPOTS WHERE WE                 
HAVE IT UP.                                                                     
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A DRY              
WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUDS                 
LINGER ON EAST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF SJV WITH MOISTURE SHOWN TO BE              
BANKED UP AGAINST HIGHER TERRAIN. SO NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN           
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.                
WHILE THE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORY TODAY...OVER              
THE SIERRA NEVADA...MOUNTAINS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED TODAY DUE TO CLOUD            
OBSCURATION AND PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT OF                      
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH                
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                          
NONE                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ095-098-099.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...STACHELSKI                                                             
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GREISS                                                       
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
337 PM MDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS AND WINDS WITH INCOMING SYSTEM...                
CURRENTLY...ELONGATED UPPER LOW STILL BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH            
100+ KT UPPER JET TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  NICE                   
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SFC LOW              
ACROSS CEN/ERN CO.  HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SOME GUSTS TO NEAR/AROUND 50            
MPH AT PLACES LIKE KLHX...PINION CANYON RAWS...PUEBLO WEST...AND                
COLORADO CITY RAWS. THIS HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO TANK ALONG THE               
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS LOW            
LVL MOISTURE MIXED OUT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO       
AROUND 15 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY NAM12 AND RUC40 DID A POOR JOB WITH             
DEW POINTS IN THIS REGION.  HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING AROUND 1030              
THIS MORNING...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE VERIFYING...SO WILL STAY THE                
COURSE THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.  FARTHER EAST...SRLY WINDS HAVE               
ADVECTED LOWER 50 DEW POINTS INTO THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES AND AM            
WATCHING A LINE OF CUMULUS DEVELOP IN THIS REGION IN VIS SAT PICS.              
MEANWHILE...OUT WEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHALLOW PCPN ONGOING AHEAD OF            
UPPER TROF.  JUST FOR CONTRAST...21Z TEMP AT WOLF CREEK PASS SENSOR IS          
37...WHILE KPUB...KLHX...KLAA ARE ALL SITTING AT AROUND 90!                     
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE UPPER             
LOW EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH.               
SECONDARY ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT APPEARS              
MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WILL STAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE                 
NORTH.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE                         
EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER AREAS...WITH                
45-50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  COULD SEE A FEW                    
THUNDERSTORMS POP ALONG THE DRY LINE/SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS THE                   
EASTERN PLAINS.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR                       
SVR...CAPES MAY BE MARGINALLY SO. MAY SEE CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1200             
J/KG WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO            
AROUND 60 MPH...AND HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER THE MAIN                  
THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.                                              
AS TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD...SFC FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST                 
PLAINS AFTER 06Z.  NEITHER NAM12/GFS HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF                    
MOISTURE ACROSS CWA...WHICH IS A MUCH DRIER SOLN THAN PAST COUPLE               
DAYS HAD SUGGESTED.  THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN THE POP                  
GRIDS.  BEST POP POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER AREAS OF THE               
SAWATCH/MOSQUITO RANGES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS MAY BE                
DRYING IT OUT TOO QUICKLY ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD AFTER 06Z...AND             
HAVE HUNG ON TO SOME ISOLATED TO SCT POPS FOR THIS REGION.  FOR THE             
EASTERN PLAINS...MAY HAVE TO BANK ON THE FRONT TO HELP BREAK OUT                
PCPN.  FOR NOW THINK THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AND HAVE DROPPED              
BACK POPS A CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN.                                   
SUN WILL BE COOLER FOR ALL AREAS...WITH STRATUS SPREADING IN ACROSS             
THE SE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE LOOKS VERY               
SHALLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THINK WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS AND               
LITTLE/NO PCPN.  HAVE TRENDED THE POPS BACK...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY              
BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THEIR             
TRENDS.  OTHERWISE...SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE                 
PLAINS WITH FROPA...BEFORE DECREASING BY AFTN AS THEY SWING AROUND              
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.  DRYING EXPECTED OUT WEST ON SUN AS TROF            
GRADUALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.  -KT                                             
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                 
...SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING...COLD MONDAY MORNING...A       
WEAK DISTURBANCE TUESDAY...OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET FALL WEATHER OVERALL...       
SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT BASED       
ON MODEL TRENDS...NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT. IN                 
FACT...18Z RUN OF THE NAM12 HAS NO POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED         
FOR SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW POPS OVER THE EAST             
FOR NOW.                                                                        
COOL POST-FRONTAL AIR...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD                   
SET THE STAGE FOR SOME COOL FALL TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING.                   
DEFINITELY A HARD FREEZE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME PATCHY                    
FROST POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS.                                                   
A LITTLE BIT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD INTO               
SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY...BUT NOT LOOKING REAL PROMISING. STILL...            
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME LOW...MAINLY MOUNTAIN POPS FOR TUESDAY.                  
AFTER TUESDAY...PRETTY TRANQUIL PATTERN. GENERALLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW              
OR WEAK RIDGING OVER COLORADO...FOR GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER THAN               
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MODELS SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH RIDGING WEDNESDAY              
AND THURSDAY TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS EASTERLY.  THIS MAY HELP TO                  
KEEP AFTERNOON MAXES DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE...AS OPPOSED TO WESTERLY            
SURFACE FLOW. COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW                   
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS                
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH. LW                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES              
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO DROP SFC                 
PRESSURES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS.  100+ KT UPPER JET            
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT LEADING TO                   
WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE ALOFT TO THE LEE OF THE MTS.  BROAD AREA OF               
SHALLOW PCPN WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE             
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS MAINLY               
WEST OF KCOS/KPUB TAF SITES.  COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE                  
KPUB/KCOS TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS             
THE EASTERN SLOPES AROUND SUNRISE SUN.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-222-                    
225>230.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/50                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
915 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...CONTINUATION OF MOIST NE TO E LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH                 
UPPER LEVEL TROF PARKED RIGHT OVER THE AREA. DRIER AIR ALOFT REMAINS            
OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONGOING                 
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS EXTEND FROM OFFSHORE SE GA ACROSS NE FL LAND            
AREAS. RUC APPEARS TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH PRECIP...ALTHO IT                
SHOWS LITTLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY                
EXPAND OVER LAND...AND FOR PRECIP OVER THE ATLC TO EVENTUALLY MAKE              
ITS WAY ONSHORE THE NE FL AND SE FL COAST. FCST APPEARS TO BE IN                
GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGES TO ZFP WILL BE TO POSSIBLE BUMP POPS                   
ANOTHER 10% OVER THE E COAST AND INTERIOR NE FL AND TO RAISE TEMPS A            
FEW DEGREES IN THE NW.                                                          
MUCH THANKS TO TAE FOR PROVIDING BACKUP OVERNIGHT! VERIZON TECHS ARE            
CURRENTLY WORKING ON COMMS PROBLEMS TO MOODY AFB (KVAX) RADAR...AND             
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY REMAINING COMMS ISSUE WE HAVE.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS               
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MAY INDICATED NE-E WIND DIRECTION.             
HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO MERGE INTO FEWER ZONE GROUPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.HYDRO...APPEARS THAT BLACK CREEK HAS CRESTED ABOUT 1.5 FEET BELOW              
FCST. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY IF ANY            
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS SET UP OVER THE BASIN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUE FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND                     
     GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 60 NM.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARROLL/ZIBURA/KERNS/ENYEDI                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
900 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...LOW LVL RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW LVL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS              
S. FL AT THE MOMENT WITH INCREASED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE              
AXIS (I.E. EAST COAST/ATLC WATERS). DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS EARLIER                 
STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...IS NOW WELL WEST OF KEY                 
WEST...WHILE OVERLAND MOST CONVECTION IS NOW OVER EAST COAST. WILL              
EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL KEEP LIKELY               
POPS FOR THE ERN METRO/COASTAL ZONES. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY INDICATE              
ISOLD TSTMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND MAINLY RAPID BRIEF SHOWERS. THESE            
SHOWERS DISSIPATE AS SOON AS THEY MOVE INLAND WITH ONLY FEW REACHING            
INLAND AREAS, AND EVEN LESS REACHING THE WEST COAST. DUE TO THIS,               
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS OVER INTERIOR AND WEST TO ONLY A LOW CHANCE(              
30 TO 40) AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER GULF WATERS. A FEW OF THE               
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30              
TO 40 MPH RANGE.                                                                
AVIATION...EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE EAST             
COAST TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE            
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE                
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE                  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WILL KEEP THE VCSH AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES              
OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 4Z AT ALL THE EAST            
COAST TAF SITES (EXCEPT TMB) FOR VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE            
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE SHOWERS.             
THE APF TAF SITE SHOULD ALSO SEE SHOWERS OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT..BUT              
THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST. SO WILL CONTINUE            
THE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT APF TAF SITE.                                             
THE WINDS SHOULD THEN PICK UP INTO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT ALL OF              
THE TAF SITES LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG               
WITH THE VC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL SHOW THIS IN THE              
SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY.                                  
RGH/BNB                                                                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A WEAK/INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH            
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT                 
GRADUALLY INCREASING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS APPROACHING FEATURE. AS A             
RESULT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE               
DEEP MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND WILL                
CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                
AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY                 
MORNING PERIOD.  WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE             
PENINSULA AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH THIS IN MIND...AND TAPER POPS TO             
CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST...AS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE              
EFFECTS OF DIABATIC COOLING AS IT MOVES INLAND.                                 
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS FORECAST BY MOST OF            
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TO MOVE STEADILY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...AS                
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION EXPANDS NORTHWARD            
IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKY                       
MOUNTAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...                
COMBINED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL                  
AIRMASS CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF                
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LOW TO MID                  
LEVEL WIND FIELDS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING                  
TODAY. WILL UNDERCUT MAV MOS POP NUMBERS...AND FOLLOW FWC/MET MOS               
POPS MORE CLOSELY TO REFLECT THIS.                                              
OTHERWISE...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH             
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON MAINTAINING A WEAK SURFACE                  
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH THE GREATEST                      
CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WILL                   
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS EFFECTS OF LOW-                
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SIMILAR BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE                    
SHOULD BE LESS...AND PWATS WILL HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO CLIMB BACK                 
ABOVE 2 INCHES BY THIS TIME. NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION ON BOTH                    
SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE                      
ATLANTIC COAST AND FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. CONCERNING                
TEMPERATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS               
MOS VALUES ALL LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...WILL RAISE MAXIMUM                    
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER                 
AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.                                                     
WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...             
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES ADVERTISE THE WEAK SURFACE                   
TROUGH OVER THE STRAITS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH                     
FLORIDA...IN RESPONSE TO A POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD                   
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL MAINTAIN BOTH POPS AND TEMPS                
NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO COME OFF THE                 
ATLANTIC WATERS AND OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL ZONES...WITH ISOLATED              
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN IT...BUT MAINLY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AS               
A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTY.                       
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PENETRATED AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN COLLIER                
COUNTY AND NAPLES. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT                
ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE PASSAGE OF               
THESE SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE                   
ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT THE NEAR SHORE GULF ZONES THROUGH              
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. THIS FLOW WILL                   
CREATE SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 FEET ACROSS THE GULF STREAM                     
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS RISING TO THIS               
LEVEL BY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS IN ALL AREAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE                
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4 FEET                   
GIVEN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. WILL HEADLINE SCEC FOR ALL               
AFFECTED WATERS IN THE CWFMFL...WITH CONDITIONS LOOKING TO FALL                 
JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN BY              
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE              
LOCAL AREA.                                                                     
EXPECT A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO CONTINUE ALONG                
THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH                 
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL ONLY INTO THE 50-60                
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A                 
DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END                  
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  79  89  79  88 / 60 30 30 40                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  89  80  88 / 60 30 30 40                                   
MIAMI            79  89  80  89 / 60 30 30 40                                   
NAPLES           77  92  77  92 / 50 30 20 40                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...70/DD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
914 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY. HIGH                      
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY                   
NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY                        
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET. SKIES MOSTLY                   
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE              
LOW-COUNTRY THIS EVENING. APPEARS THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVED                      
INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN                     
MIDLANDS AND SAVANNAH RIVER AREA SOUTH/EAST OF AGS. RUC AND WRF                 
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE MIDLANDS FROM THE              
EAST OVERNIGHT. SO...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD             
INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD SEE SOME FOG FOR THE                
PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH NEAR                
CALM WIND AND PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S               
TO LOWER 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
SREF AND LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MORE CLOUDINESS SUNDAY                   
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN. BOTH GFS/WRF                 
SHOW WEAK SURFACE TO 850MB TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST                  
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES SLIGHTLY...                  
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS WEAK                     
THOUGH. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP SOUTH FROM NORTH                   
CAROLINA ENHANCING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP               
SUNDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE               
WEST OF THE REGION WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND                    
MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND                    
MOISTURE FLUX WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST MONDAY.                 
WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO BE              
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...MOS IS IN THE MID 90...SEEMS A                    
LITTLE HIGH...SO AROUND 90 FORECAST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING STRENGTHENING NORTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW                      
DRIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BREAKING DOWN UPPER RIDGE              
IN THE EAST. CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY                 
EAST OR SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL              
DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.                    
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT SO WILL FORECAST SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POPS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION                 
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY BY                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH                   
SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT. NO                   
SHOWER ACTIVITY...LESS CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND DRIER                 
DWPTS DUE TO MORE MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER                    
CHANCES FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG VS                   
STRATUS WITH LESS WIND ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. EXPECT MVFR               
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z-08Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE UNTIL                  
13Z- 14Z. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AROUND THE 11Z-12Z TIME FRAME.                
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR AFTER 14Z-15Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH                   
LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY                   
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                      
AVIATION OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS            
TO AVIATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.                                              
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...10                                                                  
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
700 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
700 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON UNSEASONABLY WARM                 
TEMPERATURES AND THEN INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL BY MONDAY.                    
IN MUCH THE SAME MANNER AS YESTERDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE                    
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.            
INSTABILITY DERIVED FROM ACARS/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING INSTABILITY             
MAGNITUDES THAT ARE COMPARABLE TO THAT OF YESTERDAY. SPC RUC                    
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING SB CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500            
J/KG WITH ML CAPES AROUND 500-750 J/KG. NO CLEAR MID/UPPER LEVEL                
FORCING MECHANISM IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/PROFILER                    
ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DIURNAL                
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A                 
THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE              
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS BEST PROSPECTS FOR THIS ISOLATED PRECIPITATION               
WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE BREEZE ANCHORED NEAR THE             
SHORELINE MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS                  
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.             
WILL LIKELY SEE A REPEAT OF LIGHT FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AS             
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT               
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME.                                      
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR TOMORROW WITH THE FORECAST AREA              
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN BROAD WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFIED                  
WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS HIGHLIGHTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE              
SECTION...RECORD HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE A BIT LOWER AND APPEAR TO             
BE WELL WITHIN REACH. FROM A THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE...ONLY                   
DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO TODAY IS SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVELS AS A MID             
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER              
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY              
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ANY LOW POPS INCLUSION FOR            
TOMORROW GIVEN THESE INSTABILITY CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD ONCE                
AGAIN SEE GOOD CU COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DEW PTS                   
CONTINUING TO RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.                                      
BIG QUESTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CENTERS AROUND THE               
EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.                      
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO RATHER             
STRONG AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW            
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE                   
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DOES REMAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WITH             
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER MON/TUE...BUT NEITHER OF THESE                
MODELS ARE AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRF/NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NORTH                
OUTLIER. SREF ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEM TO LEND SUPPORT MORE TO A                     
ECMWF/GFS TYPE SOLUTION AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF                  
06Z/12Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THIS THINKING WOULD TEND TO                
SPEED UP PRECIP TIMING A SHADE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON                 
MONDAY. DESPITE DECENT UPPER FORCING INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROGS LOOK               
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL IN TERMS OF A SEVERE THREAT. INCREASED POPS A BIT             
ON MONDAY FOR TSRA GIVEN SOME INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON                  
FRONTAL TIMING MONDAY.                                                          
DRY SLOT AFFECTS CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR            
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AS SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD             
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS FOR WED-FRI SOME 20 TO              
25 DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND..GENERALLY IN              
THE LOW TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...THIS MAY END UP BEING A BIT TOO WARM              
FOR THIS PERIOD BASED ON LATEST 12Z DATA. INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE               
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN A POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT              
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY.                             
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
00Z TAFS...VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE AVIATION FORECAST THIS                    
EVENING. NORTHERN ILLINOIS REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY SFC GRADIENT BETWEEN            
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A TROUGH OF             
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS             
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO TOMORROW WITH MODELS                 
GIVING SOME INDICATIONS OF THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CREEPING                 
SLIGHTLY BACK WESTWARD TOMORROW AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS             
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOMORROW DOES              
NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS             
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BE                
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO AFFECT ORD/MDW/GYY LATE TOMORROW            
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN QUESTIONS AS TO STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VERY LATE TIMING OF POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE...WILL              
OMIT ANY INCLUSION FROM THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WILL ALSO KEEP A DRY                 
FORECAST GOING DESPITE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST                  
SOUNDINGS TOMORROW WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL            
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.  OTHERWISE...MAY HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS AGAIN               
WITH LIGHT FOG ESPECIALLY AT RFD/DPA IN THE 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME IN               
MUCH THE SAME MANNER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW                     
MORNINGS.                                                                       
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE MID ATLANTIC             
REGION ARE SEPARATED BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE              
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TO A LOW                   
PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.  BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE            
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...THE COLORADO LOW              
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH              
AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO               
THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS.  THIS WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE GRADIENT WILL             
REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE             
EXPECTED FOR EARLY AUTUMN.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE               
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER              
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS SECOND LOW WILL TRACK EAST            
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE THE                    
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.  AS THE FRONT                
MOVES ACOSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM PREVAILING                 
SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY.  BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS                    
EXPECTED TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.             
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY              
WHICH WILL PUT SOME RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS              
AND RECORD WARM LOWS AT THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS...                        
          SATURDAY     SUNDAY      MONDAY                                       
            10/6        10/7        10/8                                        
CHICAGO                                                                         
  HIGH    94(1963)    86(1947)    88(1997)                                      
  LOW     70(1879)    66(1914)    68(1939)                                      
ROCKFORD                                                                        
  HIGH    90(1963)    88(1916)    88(1916)                                      
  LOW     64(1990)    61(1997)    65(1949)                                      
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
310 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
310 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON UNSEASONABLY WARM                 
TEMPERATURES AND THEN INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL BY MONDAY.                    
IN MUCH THE SAME MANNER AS YESTERDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE                    
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.            
INSTABILITY DERIVED FROM ACARS/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING INSTABILITY             
MAGNITUDES THAT ARE COMPARABLE TO THAT OF YESTERDAY. SPC RUC                    
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING SB CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500            
J/KG WITH ML CAPES AROUND 500-750 J/KG. NO CLEAR MID/UPPER LEVEL                
FORCING MECHANISM IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/PROFILER                    
ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DIURNAL                
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A                 
THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE              
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS BEST PROSPECTS FOR THIS ISOLATED PRECIPITATION               
WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE BREEZE ANCHORED NEAR THE             
SHORELINE MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS                  
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.             
WILL LIKELY SEE A REPEAT OF LIGHT FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AS             
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT               
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME.                                      
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR TOMORROW WITH THE FORECAST AREA              
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN BROAD WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFIED                  
WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS HIGHLIGHTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE              
SECTION...RECORD HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE A BIT LOWER AND APPEAR TO             
BE WELL WITHIN REACH. FROM A THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE...ONLY                   
DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO TODAY IS SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVELS AS A MID             
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER              
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY              
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ANY LOW POPS INCLUSION FOR            
TOMORROW GIVEN THESE INSTABILITY CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD ONCE                
AGAIN SEE GOOD CU COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DEW PTS                   
CONTINUING TO RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.                                      
BIG QUESTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CENTERS AROUND THE               
EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.                      
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO RATHER             
STRONG AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW            
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE                   
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DOES REMAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WITH             
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER MON/TUE...BUT NEITHER OF THESE                
MODELS ARE AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRF/NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NORTH                
OUTLIER. SREF ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEM TO LEND SUPPORT MORE TO A                     
ECMWF/GFS TYPE SOLUTION AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF                  
06Z/12Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THIS THINKING WOULD TEND TO                
SPEED UP PRECIP TIMING A SHADE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON                 
MONDAY. DESPITE DECENT UPPER FORCING INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROGS LOOK               
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL IN TERMS OF A SEVERE THREAT. INCREASED POPS A BIT             
ON MONDAY FOR TSRA GIVEN SOME INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON                  
FRONTAL TIMING MONDAY.                                                          
DRY SLOT AFFECTS CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR            
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AS SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD             
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS FOR WED-FRI SOME 20 TO              
25 DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND..GENERALLY IN              
THE LOW TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...THIS MAY END UP BEING A BIT TOO WARM              
FOR THIS PERIOD BASED ON LATEST 12Z DATA. INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE               
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN A POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT              
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY.                             
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS...QUIET WEATHER FOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE                  
LATEST TAF PERIOD.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOKING AT             
VFR SKIES/VIS.  THE RESIDUAL BR/HZ HAS DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME                  
MIXING/WARMING AND THE CLEAR SKIES ARE RAPIDLY GIVING WAY TO                    
DEVELOPING CU.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A DENSER            
CU FIELD AND ISOLD SHRA WELL TO THE EAST OVER INDIANA AND                       
OHIO...WITH GENERALLY ONLY SCT CU OVER THE LOCAL TAF REGION.  EXPECT            
THIS TO CONTINUE AND WILL KEEP JUST SCT CU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF             
THE DAYTIME HOURS.  THE CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN AND              
WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ERN CONUS...ONLY EXPECT SOME              
CI OVERNIGHT.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING                  
TROUGH TO THE WEST...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A SOUTHERLY                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH             
SLOWLY MOVES EWD TOMORROW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SWLY TWD            
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...ONLY EXPECT SOME              
OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR DPA/RFD.  THE PRESSURE                
GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS STRONG TO PRECLUDE ANY              
SGFNT VIS REDUCTIONS AT ORD/MDW.  THUS HAVE GONE WITH A FEW HOURS OF            
TEMPO MVFR VIS AT RFD/DPA AND WILL KEEP ORD/MDW/GYY UNRESTRICTED.               
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE MID ATLANTIC             
REGION ARE SEPARATED BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE              
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TO A LOW                   
PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.  BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE            
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...THE COLORADO LOW              
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH              
AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO               
THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS.  THIS WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE GRADIENT WILL             
REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE             
EXPECTED FOR EARLY AUTUMN.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE               
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER              
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS SECOND LOW WILL TRACK EAST            
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE THE                    
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.  AS THE FRONT                
MOVES ACOSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM PREVAILING                 
SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY.  BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS                    
EXPECTED TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.             
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY              
WHICH WILL PUT SOME RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS              
AND RECORD WARM LOWS AT THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS...                        
          SATURDAY     SUNDAY      MONDAY                                       
            10/6        10/7        10/8                                        
CHICAGO                                                                         
  HIGH    94(1963)    86(1947)    88(1997)                                      
  LOW     70(1879)    66(1914)    68(1939)                                      
ROCKFORD                                                                        
  HIGH    90(1963)    88(1916)    88(1916)                                      
  LOW     64(1990)    61(1997)    65(1949)                                      
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
150 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
301 PM CDT                                                                      
LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND BROAD            
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. SERIES OF SMALLER AMPLITUDE RIPPLES                
LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL                        
PLAINS...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS MID MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND SIOUX CITY              
IA THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SUBTLE FEATURE FARTHER EAST ACROSS FORECAST             
AREA LIFTING INTO WI WHICH AIDED IN ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE                
DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY. 88D INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL             
TRYING TO DEVELOP...THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ORGANIZED                    
CONVERGENCE LACKING DESPITE RUC DERIVED MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. A             
FEW LOCATIONS MAY YET SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED RW THRU LATE                         
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE LIMITED AND AREAL                
COVERAGE PRETTY LOW. ANY FURTHER SHOWERS SHOULD FADE BY SUNSET.                 
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING OF 5920 METER              
500 HPA UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES                 
TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES BOTH MIN/MAX. LOW                
LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT MID/UPPER 80S...THOUGH 850 HPA                
TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +17 C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RECORD BREAKING             
MAV NUMBERS IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH UNSEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVELS                   
PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AND SUGGEST PERHAPS A FEW DEGS COOLER A            
LITTLE MORE LIKELY. HAVE BUMPED A DEGREE OR SO FROM GOING                       
FORECAST...WHICH ROUGHLY RESULTS IN BLEND OF COOLER FWC/MET AND                 
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. NEAR/AT RECORD WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS              
NEAR 90 AND LOWS UPPER 60S/NEAR 70. UPPER RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO DRIFT            
EAST AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY...AS WESTERN TROUGH PROGRESSES                  
SLOWLY EAST. SIMILAR THERMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH                
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS INDICATE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE AND                
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING            
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...950 HPA WIND FIELD WEAKENS DURING THE                     
DAY...SUGGESTING PERHAPS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE FOR                   
NORTHERN CHICAGO SUBURBS. STILL...RECORDS FOR THE 7TH A FEW DEGREES             
COOLER THAN FOR THE 6TH...SO LIKELY STILL NEAR RECORD TEMPS SUNDAY.             
SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF DISCUSSION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGHS/LOWS NEXT              
FEW DAYS.                                                                       
PRECIP CHANCES THEN INCREASE MONDAY-TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH                     
APPROACHES. STILL QUITE MILD WITH WARM/MOIST LOW LEVELS THOUGH CLOUD            
COVER LIKELY KEEPING US FROM RECORD TERRITORY MONDAY. WRF/GFS/UKMET             
IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TAKING OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WI WITH             
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.                             
MID/LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THEN SHOWING LOWER CONFIDENCE BY MID/END              
OF NEXT WEEK. NCEP ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN               
HANDLING OF TROUGH AS IT SLOWS/WEAKENS ACROSS MIDWEST/WESTERN                   
LAKES...WHILE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH SYSTEM MOVING             
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. HPC IDEA OF USING NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERS            
PERHAPS BEST CONTINUITY...THOUGH DOES IMPLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF                  
TROUGH AND PERHAPS LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDLE OF             
THE WEEK. COOLER...BUT LIKELY STILL AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND                  
ACCEPTED AS WELL FOR NOW...GIVEN RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONGER                
TERM EVOLUTION.                                                                 
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAFS...PERSISTENCE APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE THIS MORNING WITH               
FEW CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED AWAY FROM DENSE                   
FOG...FROM 24 HRS AGO...AND EXPECT SOME 3-5SM VIS POSSIBLE BY                   
SUNRISE. SSW WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO                 
10-15KTS BY LATE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING AND TURNING BACK SSE AFTER            
SUNSET. PASSING CIRRUS THRU THE PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME CU TODAY.                
ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH            
OF THE TERMINALS. CMS                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
150 AM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY             
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER SE WYOMING WEAKENS AND              
FORMS A TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL            
SLOWLY MOVE EAST UNTIL NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN               
LAKES MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT              
AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP              
OVER THE FAR NORTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN...KEEPING WINDS MORE EAST OR            
SE THERE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.                
ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN                
CANADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CMS                                               
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY              
WHICH WILL PUT SOME RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS              
AND RECORD WARM LOWS AT THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS...                        
          SATURDAY     SUNDAY      MONDAY                                       
            10/6        10/7        10/8                                        
CHICAGO                                                                         
  HIGH    94(1963)    86(1947)    88(1997)                                      
  LOW     70(1879)    66(1914)    68(1939)                                      
ROCKFORD                                                                        
  HIGH    90(1963)    88(1916)    88(1916)                                      
  LOW     64(1990)    61(1997)    65(1949)                                      
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
555 PM MDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER FEW HOURS FOR                 
COUNTIES EITHER SIDE OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ALLOWED IT TO EXPIRE FOR              
THE COUNTIES EAST OF THIS LINE. CURRENT OBS FROM FAR EASTERN                    
COLORADO STILL SHOWING GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WITH HIGHEST WINDS OF THE              
DAY IN WESTERN KANSAS AT PRESENT TIME.                                          
800 MB WINDS FROM THE RUC SHOWING SPEEDS MATCHING THE CURRENT OBS               
AND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE              
45 KTS. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY MIX DOWN AS WE LOSE                  
SOME HEATING BUT RIGHT NOW ITS WELL OVER BORDERLINE CRITERIA SO                 
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT JUST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.                          
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDE USING THE 21Z RUC/18Z NAM 3 HOURLY                    
TEMP/DP GRIDS THROUGH FROPA. WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING               
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WONT BE HAVING A NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE SO                  
THESE PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AS WELL. WILL WAIT A BIT ON                 
POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS ONCE THE FRONT STARTS                  
GETTING CLOSER TO THE AREA AND SEE HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIP CAN GET.                
FURTHER UPDATES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-           
     013-027-041.                                                               
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.                      
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
414 AM MDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. SATELLITE            
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. FLOW TRANISITIONS TO A             
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST               
THE STRONG AND AT THIS TIME CUTOFF UPPER SYSTEM OVER UTAH AND                   
NEVADA. SYSTEM IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC                  
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. STRONGEST JET WINDS ARE ON THE                  
FRONT SIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE HIGHEST HEIGHT              
FALLS. LATEST SATELLITE INDICATES THAT SYSTEM HAS STOPPED MOVING                
SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST KICKS IT OUT.                              
LOOKS TO BE DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH 700 MB THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.               
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER IS IN PLACE ABOVE THIS. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE             
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS LOOKED TO              
INITIAL OKAY WITH THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING UPPER                  
TROUGH. IF ANYTHING THEY MAY BE A TAD TOO FAR EAST WITH JET AXIS                
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WINDS           
AT THE BASE AND ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH.                                
AT MID LEVELS...BASED ON SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE RUC AND           
UKMET NAILED THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NEVADA. THE GFS WAS               
SLIGHTLY TOO FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE             
SECONDARY CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NORTH THE BEST. BASED ON THE                
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...THE MODELS DID NOT HAVE THE TROUGH DEEP ENOUGH             
ON ITS SOUTHWEST EDGE. THE UKMET DID SLIGHTLY BETTER IN THIS                    
RESPECT. THE NAM MISSED THE BOAT ON THE ANALYSIS.                               
AT LOW LEVELS...NAM AND UKMET WERE HANDLING THE SURFACE PRESSURE AND            
WIND FIELD THE BEST. THE UKMET IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE...THE GFS THE FASTEST...WITH THE NAM IN BETWEEN. BASED ON               
FLOW ALOFT WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF UKMET IS RIGHT. HOWEVER...THE               
NAM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL BE GOING WITH A BLEND OF MAINLY THE              
UKMET AND THE GFS WITH A TILT TOWARD THE GFS WITH TIME SINCE BELIEVE            
THE UKMET IS TOO SLOW IN KICKING OUT THE UPPER LOW BASED ON JET                 
FORECASTS. THE NAM WILL BE LEANED ON A LITTLE MORE ON THE SURFACE               
WINDS.                                                                          
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM...GRADIENT AND PRESSURE                 
FALLS EXPECTED...AND CURRENT SURFACE WINDS POINT TO HAVING A WIND               
ADVISORY HOISTED FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE               
LATEST RUC HAS BACKED OFF OF IT SOME. WILL PUT A WIND ADVISORY OUT              
FOR THE WESTERN HALF PLUS RED WILLOW. WAS ALSO DEBATING A FIRE                  
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...LATEST RUC...AND              
A FURTHER WEST/STRONGER LEE TROUGH BELIEVE THE DEWPOINTS WILL STAY              
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE COLORADO COUNTIES WHICH WAS THE                
POINT OF CONCERN. BELIEVE THE GFS/MAV IS TOO LOW WITH DEWPOINTS. SO             
WILL NOT HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH WIND                 
CRITERIA WILL BE MET. HOWEVER...UNDER MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER THE             
COLORADO COUNTIES YESTERDAY...A FIRE DID START IN KIT CARSON COUNTY.            
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE MORE TIME BEFORE I LEAVE THIS MORNING.             
THE GFS BRINGS A SECONDARY MAX OF JET WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY             
WHICH IF RIGHT WOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN A TOUCH. HOWEVER THE OTHER            
MODELS DEFINITELY HAVE THE STRONGEST JET WINDS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF             
THE TROUGH. THE JET AXIS STAYS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE           
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT GETTING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE                 
FORECAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. SO WITHOUT ANY LIFT ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY               
PLUS STAYING CAPPED WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO               
WATCH FOR ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE.                         
THE 700 MB SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST HALF TONIGHT. THE              
MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM TONIGHT WILL BE THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT DOES            
NOT PROGRESS AS FAST AS EXPECTED THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND ENOUGH LIFT              
PRESENT DEPITE THE MAIN LIFT GOING TO THE NORTHWEST...WILL KEEP IN              
CHANCE POPS ALTHOUGH HAVE TONED IT DOWN A LITTLE.                               
MAXES WILL BE VERY WARM TODAY...AND MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE             
TO UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                      
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE UKMET/NAM             
BUT THEY ALL BRING THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE                  
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE              
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING            
THE EVENING HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE             
MORNING THEN A BREAK BEFORE THE JET AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
ARRIVES. ALSO HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS LEFT ALOFT WILL BE A QUESTION.               
WANTED TO HAVE LOWER POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT WAS CORNERED IN               
BY SURROUNDING OFFICES. SO WILL CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE TIME THROUGH             
06Z WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. AM NOT SURE HOW             
MUCH SUN WILL SEE BUT NEW GUIDANCE WAS IN THE BALLPARK. IF HAVE                 
MORE SUN...THESE MAXES WILL BE TOO COOL.                                        
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SUN AND SOME DOWNSLOPE. WARMED UP               
MAXES A LITTLE. DEPENDING HOW WARM IT GETS DURING THE DAY...                    
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET RATHER COOL                
MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.                                  
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.              
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED           
AT 25-35 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS           
WILL BE NEAR KGLD BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF               
PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SHIFTING THE             
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH             
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM              
     MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-                  
     028-041-042.                                                               
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM              
     MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.                              
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS                     
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER/KJ                                                                       
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
228 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
HOW TO HANDLE THE UPPER LOW COMING OUT AND THE PRECIP IT BRINGS                 
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION.                                             
00Z UPPER AIR OBS AND WV LOOP SHOW THAT THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED              
ONSHORE, AND IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING INTO NV THIS MORNING.                     
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,              
WITH A LEE SFC TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. WE SHOULD AGAIN HAVE                
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. THE RUC HAS THE WEST GETTING UP TO                
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOT NEARLY AS STRONG.                
THE SREF IS ALSO SLOWER AND DOES NOT HAVE ANY PROBABILITIES FOR                 
WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION                
TO YESTERDAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND SOME               
LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST BEFORE SUNSET. WILL              
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.        
WE SHOULD STAY CAPPED OFF FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,                
BUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER              
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN WY. THIS SHOULD HELP MOVE THE SFC                
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER EAST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN INTO NW                
KS. WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS C AND SFC IN THE 50S TO LOW               
60S F, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GET CONVECTION               
GOING ALONG THE FRONT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE BEST                    
CHANCES FOR SOMETHING WITH THE BETTER UVV IN THAT AREA. CONTINUED               
THE TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH WITH LOWER POPS IN THE               
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.                                                                
THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD START TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON                 
SUNDAY, WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.                
CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS IN OUR EAST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                 
WHILE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD, THINK THAT SEVERITY              
WILL BE LIMITED WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING INSTABILITY DOWN. SOME                 
ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND REPORTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,                     
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, MODELS START TO                 
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE VORT MAX ON THE SOUTH              
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM BREAKS OFF THE ENERGY OVER                    
SOUTHWESTERN KS, AND HAS AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER US THROUGH                   
MONDAY. THE GFS HAS A DECENT ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH                 
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE UKMET AND ECMWF                 
ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EVEN THE GFS, AND THE CANADIAN IS                
MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES IN WHICH THE               
NAM IS A MEMBER LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION,                     
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, DON`T                  
WANT TO MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER, EVEN THE              
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SLOWS THINGS DOWN AND HAS QUITE A BIT OF QPF               
IN OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DURING THAT PERIOD.              
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS               
TODAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP US FROM SETTING RECORDS AGAIN. HIGHS                    
SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY TOASTY THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW                
20S C, SO KEPT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SOUTHERLY                
WINDS AND GOOD DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP LOWS TONIGHT FROM FALLING TOO              
MUCH, SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70 THAT                
WE HAD GOING. SUNDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AS THE FRONT COMES                  
DOWN AND CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD BE A FACTOR. HIGHS IN THE                
WEST WILL HOVER AROUND 70 WITH 850MB TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE              
DIGITS AND CLOUDS LIMITING THE SUN. THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD STAY A                 
BIT WARMER WITH THE FRONT NOT COMING DOWN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.                 
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.                 
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE START OF              
THIS PERIOD. DOES APPEAR AS SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER MONDAY             
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN FA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF              
PRECIPITATION MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN FA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE                 
WEAKENING AFTER 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND DECREASING             
LIFT, WILL END ANY POPS BY 14Z MON. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL                
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD              
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY, SKIES WILL BEING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO            
EAST. H85 TEMPERATURES START TO WARM BACK INTO THE TEENS DURING THE             
DAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL                
NORMALS. BY TUESDAY MORNING, UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR GREAT LAKES              
REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A LEE              
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS A            
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO             
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FA. GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER PACIFIC               
FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE FA BY WEEKS END. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED               
DURING THIS PERIOD, WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY AT THIS                 
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AVIATION CONCERNS FOCUS ON GUSTY WINDS AT THE SITES ONCE AGAIN                  
TODAY. AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS NORTHEAST CO, WINDS WILL               
INCREASE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 40MPH WILL BE LIKELY BY               
MIDDAY. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AS             
WELL. AFTERNOON CU WILL DEVELOP BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING                
THIS TIME. TOWARD END OF PERIOD, CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH CONDITIONS            
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE IFR RANGE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  90  64  74  49 /  10  30  50  50                                           
GCK  90  59  71  45 /  10  30  50  40                                           
EHA  90  55  69  46 /  10  30  50  30                                           
LBL  91  60  74  48 /  10  30  40  30                                           
HYS  89  64  73  46 /  10  40  60  60                                           
P28  88  70  82  55 /  10  30  60  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN26/30/30                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
354 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST            
GULF OF MEXICO ON THE HEELS OF THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVED              
ASHORE LAST NIGHT AND WAS LOCATED NEAR CONROE TEXAS. VAD WIND PROFILE           
CONTINUES TO SHOW BRISK WINDS ALOFT ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO           
STREAM IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LA.                              
IR SATELLITE SHOWED COOLER CLOUD TOPS NOW SPREADING OUT OF THE IMMEDIATE        
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AREA. THEREFORE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WEST OF THE COUNTY       
WARNING AREA BUT WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AND         
SLIGHTLY LOWER INTO LOUISIANA. RUC40 MODEL CLEARLY SHOWING SOME DRY AIR         
MOVING INTO THE MID LEVELS FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON SO NOT CONFIDENT    
IN GOING ANY HIGHER POPS THAN 50 PERCENT SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO 40 PERCENT          
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
ON MONDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS TRAVERSES ACROSS THE     
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO FLATTERN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOME.    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO TEXAS ALLOWING FOR A NORTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP    
IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COOL FRONT      
MEANDERS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE   
COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND     
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION.                                     
TIDE GAGES AT CALCASIEU PASS AND CAMERON SHOW ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL  
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. HIGH TIDE OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE 2 AM SO SHOULD SEE  
THE TIDE LEVEL READINGS COME DOWN AS LOW TIDE IS EXPECTED A LITTLE AFTER 8 AM.  
WILL LET COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM.                                 
BUOY 42035 HIGH ISLAND STILL SHOWS 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS NEAR  
3 FEET OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AT 2 AM. MARSH ISLAND MUCH       
IMPROVED AND BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA.                
STILL BELIEVE WE MIGHT HAVE A FEW HOURS AFTER 7 AM WITH SCEC IN THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS SO WILL CONTINUE SCEC THERE THIS MORNING.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR THIS     
AFTERNOON EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING IN THE WESTERN 
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AS HIGH  
ISLAND BUOY REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS CALMING DOWN NOW BELOW SCEC. SEAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN COMING DOWN    
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING SUBSIDING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  88  72  89  73 /  40  20  40  20                                          
KBPT  87  72  89  73 /  50  20  40  20                                          
KAEX  88  71  89  71 /  40  20  40  20                                          
KLFT  88  73  89  73 /  40  20  40  20                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SCEC GMZ450 AND GMZ472.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
543 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...UPDATED THE GRIDS AND CWF TO INCLUDE A SMALL CRAFT                    
ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH 21Z. RECEIVED REPORTS FROM              
OFFSHORE PLATFORMS OF SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WINDS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007/                          
SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WAS APPROXIMATELY 170 MILES                 
SOUTH OF LCH AS OF 07Z. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICABLE ABSENCE OF                   
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...BUT LOW LEVEL MSAS ANALYSES AND RUC                
SHOW GOOD THTE ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE SE PART OF THE CWA                  
THIS MORNING. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2                 
INCHES TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH               
POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN                  
SECTIONS OF CWA. LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD               
WILL PROVIDE MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY                   
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL               
SUPPORT DIURNAL POPS THROUGH MONDAY. SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS PROGGED              
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. WILL STILL HAVE                 
LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF                         
SURGE...BUT WILL HAVE POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS WEDNESDAY THRU                    
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ACROSS               
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 70 THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY                   
MORNING.                                                                        
AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BRING OCNL                 
MVFR CONDITIONS.  MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MORE FREQUENT AT ARA AND                 
LFT.                                                                            
MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW             
TO THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT            
WILL KEEP SCEC OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES FOR TODAY. WILL INCREASE THE             
WINDS ON TUESDAY AS DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE                  
SOUTHWEST GULF STRENGTHENS A LITTLE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  85  74  88  73 /  60  30  40  20                                          
KBPT  87  74  87  74 /  50  30  40  20                                          
KAEX  88  72  88  71 /  50  30  30  20                                          
KLFT  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM                  
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO                      
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM                
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING                 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AP                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
327 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WAS APPROXIMATELY 170 MILES                
SOUTH OF LCH AS OF 07Z. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICABLE ABSENCE OF                   
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...BUT LOW LEVEL MSAS ANALYSES AND RUC                
SHOW GOOD THTE ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE SE PART OF THE CWA                  
THIS MORNING. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2                 
INCHES TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH               
POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN                  
SECTIONS OF CWA. LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD               
WILL PROVIDE MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY                   
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL               
SUPPORT DIURNAL POPS THROUGH MONDAY. SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS PROGGED              
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. WILL STILL HAVE                 
LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF                         
SURGE...BUT WILL HAVE POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS WEDNESDAY THRU                    
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ACROSS               
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 70 THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY                   
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BRING OCNL                
MVFR CONDITIONS.  MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MORE FREQUENT AT ARA AND                 
LFT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW            
TO THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT            
WILL KEEP SCEC OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES FOR TODAY. WILL INCREASE THE             
WINDS ON TUESDAY AS DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE                  
SOUTHWEST GULF STRENGTHENS A LITTLE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  85  74  88  73 /  60  30  40  20                                          
KBPT  87  74  87  74 /  50  30  40  20                                          
KAEX  88  72  88  71 /  50  30  30  20                                          
KLFT  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AP                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1010 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED               
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. A             
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY MID WEEK BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE           
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE CWFA. THIS AXIS SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR                
TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.                                      
EARLIER STRATO CU DECK HAS DISSIPATED...SO SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE             
CWFA. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...WILL BE JUST A QUESTION             
OF HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL BE. THE MAJOR FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE             
THE WINDS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE LIGHT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE                
CWFA. SOME WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SE...SOME ARE                                   
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY. IF THE WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SW...THIS             
WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.                                                     
THE NAM...GFS AND RUC MODELS ALL TURN THE WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW                 
OVERNIGHT. THE LOCAL RUN OF THE WRF-ARW ALSO HAS THE WINDS TURNING              
FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW OVERNIGHT...SOMETIME AFTER 03Z. FLOW WILL BE            
LIGHT...WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE VERY SOUTHERN CWFA NEAR                
KCHO. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR                  
STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES KEEPS THE ANY               
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.                                  
NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AS IN                
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THERE ARE TWO AREAS THAT HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL               
FOR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...THE PIEDMONT OVER TO LOWER SOUTHERN                   
MARYLAND AND THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. STILL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF               
LIGHT SW FLOW...NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD             
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. SO AT THIS TIME...WILL MENTION                 
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND PIEDMONT AREAS OVER THE LOWER               
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE...WITH VSBYS 1 TO 2 SM                
LIKELY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...                        
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES/AND EVEN HI RES ECMWF               
THAT BACKDOOR CDFNT WL SLIP THRU TMRW AFTN. TOO WK W/ TOO LTL                   
FORCING FOR ANY POPS. BUT...WHAT IT WL DO IS TURN WNDS WLY AND OF               
IT...PROVIDING A DRIER DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO MORE EFFECTIVELY NIBBLE              
AWAY AT ANY LOW CLD/FOG THAT DOES DVLP. SO...WL FCST A QUICKER                  
IMPVMNT THAN TDA. SINCE MORE INSOLATION COMBINED W/ COMPRESSIONAL               
WARMING...WL GO CLOSER TO MIDPACK ON TEMPS...WHICH IS ALMOST                    
IDENTICAL TO PERSISTENCE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
FOR MON...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE              
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS               
THRE AREA. VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON...WITH MAIN AREAS               
OF HIGH MOISTURE STILL WELL NORTH INCREDIABLY AS SHOWN BY THE 09Z               
SREF PRECIP WATER FIELDS.                                                       
BY TUE...THE UPR LVL HIGH STARTS LOSING TO THE VIGOROUS UPR LEVEL               
LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT. THIS UPR                 
LOW WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TRAILING A DECENT COLD WITH               
ITS ATTENDENT SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT               
LAKES REGION ON TUE AND WED. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE TIMING                      
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES.           
THIS FRONT REPRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NEXT WEEK TO GET ANY               
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE FAR                
WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS                 
THE AREA MOST LIKELY ON WED...THEN DRIER AND COOLER (MORE                       
SEASONABLE) ARE ARRIVE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
CURRENTLY...THE OBS ARE SHOWING ALL AREAS AT VFR. THE MAIN FORECAST             
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE            
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING VSBYS/CIGS BELOW THE IFR RANGE             
TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE CHANGE OF SURFACE FLOW FROM             
THE SE TO THE S/SW OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...LOW CONFIDENCE ON             
THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT VSBYS             
IN THE IFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. KCHO SHOULD               
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT..AS THEY TEND TO GO              
CALM.                                                                           
WNDS WL BECOME WLY TMRW...WHICH WL AIDE IN ERODING LOW DECK MORE                
RAPIDLY. SHUD SEE VFR CONDS BY MID MRNG.                                        
FOR THE EXTENDED POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MON AND TUE                 
DUE TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CEILING AROUND SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION               
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE TUE THROUGH WED COULD PRODUCE SOME               
MVFR AND TEMP IFR CONDITIONS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS LIGHT ON THE BAY TONIGHT AND SUN. FOG IS THE ONLY ISSUE ON                
THE WATERS TONIGHT.                                                             
WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH TUE...THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON                
WED BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.       
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
MARINE...                                                                       
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
200 AM PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                    
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW WITH MOIST ELY FLOW TO N OF              
WARM FRONT CAUSING WDSPRD VSBY AOB 1/4SM OVER THE HIER TERRAIN. THIS            
UPSLOPE ELY FLOW WL CONTINUE IN SHALLOW COOL WEDGE N OF SFC WARM FNT            
THRU THE NGT AND INTO AT LEAST SAT MRNG...SO EXTENDING THE ADVY                 
UNTIL MID MRNG ON SAT WITH LTL HOPE FOR SGNFT IMPROVEMENT THRU THAT             
TIME. MAY NEED TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVYS ESPECIALLY OVER              
THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF LLVL MSTR               
AND INCRSGLY SHALLOW COOL WEDGE TNGT AS H85 WARM FNT PASSES TO THE N.           
ALSO UPDATED TO DROP POPS AFT 06Z OVER THE NW. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS               
APRNT SHRTWV MOVING NEWD FM SRN MN...AND 00Z MPX SDNG HINTS AT DVLPG            
CAPPING INVRN ARND H7 IN ITS WAKE. SUSPECT BEST CHC OF SHRA/ISOLD TS            
WL BE IN THE 02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS THIS SHRTWV INTERACTS WITH H85                
WARM FNT/BETTER H85-7 FGEN AS FCST BY 18Z GFS BEFORE SHRTWV WOULD               
MOVE TO THE NE AND CAPPING INVRN WOULD OVERSPREAD THE FA. BUT 21Z               
RUC HINTS THAT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SD MIGHT INFLUENCE THE WX HERE            
AFT 06Z...SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS EVEN THOUGH GFS FCSTS WEAKENING H85            
LLJ/BETTER FGEN SHIFTING TO THE N WITH H85 WARM FNT AT THAT TIME.               
KC                                                                              
$$                                                                              
.PREVIOUS FCST (ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT)...                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. WITH WV AND               
RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING IN             
THE EAST. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL S/WVS ARE EMBEDDED IN                
THIS FAST FLOW WITH ONE NOW MOVING INTO NW WI. THIS PARTICULAR S/WV             
COMBINED WITH DECENT THETA-S ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLIER              
TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NRN WI...ERN MN...AND               
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. SOME LOCALES OUT WEST HAVE SEEN UPWARDS             
OF 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. PRECIP HAS BECOME A BIT MORE                    
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS CONTINUE TO                        
DEVELOPING INVOF THE S/WV AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE            
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.                                                     
AT THE SFC...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT               
HAS STALLED OUT RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SW            
TO A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NE. STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH OVER NW                 
ONTARIO IS CONTINUING TO FEED DRIER AIR ON NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DOWN             
ACROSS LAKE SUPER NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIGHT PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...COOL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE               
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE KEPT TEMPS INT THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST.                    
THINNING IN THE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TEMPS IN THE EAST CLIMB INTO THE             
70S AGAIN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
SCT SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT              
S/WV. BEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF             
THE AREA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER S/WV CURRENTLY MOVE THROUGH            
NE WILL MOVE UP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH                     
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WITH            
THE BRUNT OF IT ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.            
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING SATURDAY AS S/WV PASSES.                 
FRONT OVER THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD                
DURING THE DAY BU IT WILL BE SLOW. COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC HIGH             
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL FIGHT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.             
SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR IMT AND MENOMINEE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND            
TEMPS COULD APPROACH 80 THERE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL HANG ON IN THE               
KEWEENAW WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING              
TO 60.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                       
CONCERNS FOCUS ON SORTING OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF WRN              
CONUS TROF INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                        
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER NRN PORTIONS OF UPR MI SAT EVENING              
IS PROGGED TO PUSH NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SUN. SO BELIEVE                
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL GENERALLY END OVERNIGHT OVER UPR MI WITH MAYBE             
A FEW STORMS LINGERING OVER THE LAKE. MOIST DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE             
TO LEAD TO FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY FOR NEARSHORE AREAS UPSTREAM OF             
GREAT LAKES.                                                                    
WITH GFS AND UKMET INDICATING WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF AREA...LOOK              
FOR SUNDAY TO BE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPS                  
16-17C...AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE SUN...LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO GFS               
MOS GUIDANCE (IN THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F) WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER                
READINGS FOR ERN LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI.                               
DECIDED TO GENERALLY FOLLOW ALONG WITH LATEST GFS SOLN AS IT HAS                
BEEN SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT (THAN OTHER MODELS) IN RECENT RUNS                
WITH TIMING OF WRN CONUS TROF AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED LOW WHICH IT            
BRINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE INTO WED.            
AS TROF SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY                  
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF SPREADING            
HIGHER CHC POPS EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                  
850 MB WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINS TO PICK UP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO             
MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING NEG-TILT MID-UPR TROF AND ASSOC 40-50 KT               
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECIDED TO BUMP            
UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON               
WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE...700-500 MB DEFORMATION AND FGEN                   
FORCING ORIENTED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN VERY MOIST                       
CONDITIONS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE                         
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES.                     
LOOK FOR UPR DIFLUENCE TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT              
AHEAD OF THE MID-UPR TROF/CLOSED LOW. AS SFC TROF/BOUNDARY MOVES                
ACROSS THE CWA WILL SPREAD LIKELY POPS INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA             
AS WELL.                                                                        
EXPECT LINGERING SCT SHRA TO PERSIST TUE WITH PROXIMITY OF CLOSED               
LOW AND THEN SHRA COVERAGE WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST BY WED  AS              
CLOSED BEGINS TO EXIT E THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. WENT WITH A DRY                
FCST THU ALL FOR BUT THE FAR SE-E PORTION OF THE CWA THEN DRY FOR               
THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRI AS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF                
SUPPORT RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE U.P. WILL BE THE FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LIFR CEILINGS            
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHALLOW               
COOL WEDGE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THERE WILL BE ONLY SLOW               
IMPROVEMENT WITH SOME HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT MAKES            
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF                 
SHRA/ISOLD TS AT BOTH SITES WILL BE 06Z-10Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH                 
APPROACHING SHORTHWAVE FROM MINNESOTA.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH OVER NW ONTARIO             
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE              
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD                
MAKE SOME PROGRESS NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING               
UP AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH                 
TIMING AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT              
WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE               
AREA ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. NORTHEASTERLY AND                 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MON-WED PD AS THE STORM                
PASSES BY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 DENSE FOG ADVY MIZ001-003 TIL 14Z SAT.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MZ                                                        
MARINE...MZ                                                                     
LONG TERM...JV                                                                  
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
418 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. WITH WV AND               
RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING IN             
THE EAST. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL S/WVS ARE EMBEDDED IN                
THIS FAST FLOW WITH ONE NOW MOVING INTO NW WI. THIS PARTICULAR S/WV             
COMBINED WITH DECENT THETA-S ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLIER              
TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NRN WI...ERN MN...AND               
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. SOME LOCALES OUT WEST HAVE SEEN UPWARDS             
OF 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. PRECIP HAS BECOME A BIT MORE                    
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS CONTINUE TO                        
DEVELOPING INVOF THE S/WV AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE            
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.                                                     
AT THE SFC...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT               
HAS STALLED OUT RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SW            
TO A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NE. STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH OVER NW                 
ONTARIO IS CONTINUING TO FEED DRIER AIR ON NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DOWN             
ACROSS LAKE SUPER NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIGHT PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...COOL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE               
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE KEPT TEMPS INT THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST. THINNING           
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TEMPS IN THE EAST CLIMB INTO THE 70S AGAIN.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
SCT SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT              
S/WV. BEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF             
THE AREA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER S/WV CURRENTLY MOVE THROUGH            
NE WILL MOVE UP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH                     
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WITH            
THE BRUNT OF IT ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.            
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING SATURDAY AS S/WV PASSES.                 
FRONT OVER THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD                
DURING THE DAY BU IT WILL BE SLOW. COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC HIGH             
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL FIGHT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.             
SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR IMT AND MENOMINEE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND            
TEMPS COULD APPROACH 80 THERE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL HANG ON IN THE               
KEWEENAW WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING              
TO 60.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                       
CONCERNS FOCUS ON SORTING OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF WRN              
CONUS TROF INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                        
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER NRN PORTIONS OF UPR MI SAT EVENING              
IS PROGGED TO PUSH NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SUN. SO BELIEVE                
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL GENERALLY END OVERNIGHT OVER UPR MI WITH MAYBE             
A FEW STORMS LINGERING OVER THE LAKE. MOIST DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE             
TO LEAD TO FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY FOR NEARSHORE AREAS UPSTREAM OF             
GREAT LAKES.                                                                    
WITH GFS AND UKMET INDICATING WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF AREA...LOOK              
FOR SUNDAY TO BE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPS                  
16-17C...AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE SUN...LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO GFS               
MOS GUIDANCE (IN THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F) WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER                
READINGS FOR ERN LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI.                               
DECIDED TO GENERALLY FOLLOW ALONG WITH LATEST GFS SOLN AS IT HAS                
BEEN SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT (THAN OTHER MODELS) IN RECENT RUNS                
WITH TIMING OF WRN CONUS TROF AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED LOW WHICH IT            
BRINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE INTO WED.            
AS TROF SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY                  
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF SPREADING            
HIGHER CHC POPS EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                  
850 MB WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINS TO PICK UP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO             
MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING NEG-TILT MID-UPR TROF AND ASSOC 40-50 KT               
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECIDED TO BUMP            
UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON               
WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE...700-500 MB DEFORMATION AND FGEN                   
FORCING ORIENTED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN VERY MOIST                       
CONDITIONS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE                         
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES.                     
LOOK FOR UPR DIFLUENCE TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT              
AHEAD OF THE MID-UPR TROF/CLOSED LOW. AS SFC TROF/BOUNDARY MOVES                
ACROSS THE CWA WILL SPREAD LIKELY POPS INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA             
AS WELL.                                                                        
EXPECT LINGERING SCT SHRA TO PERSIST TUE WITH PROXIMITY OF CLOSED               
LOW AND THEN SHRA COVERAGE WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST BY WED  AS              
CLOSED BEGINS TO EXIT E THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. WENT WITH A DRY                
FCST THU ALL FOR BUT THE FAR SE-E PORTION OF THE CWA THEN DRY FOR               
THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRI AS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF                
SUPPORT RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CIGS HAVE ALREADY GONE DOWN TO LIFR AT CMX AND THIS WILL PROBABLY               
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD. CIGS AT SAW WILL ALSO FALL              
INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE BY LATER THIS EVENING.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH OVER NW ONTARIO             
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE              
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD                
MAKE SOME PROGRESS NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING               
UP AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH                 
TIMING AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT              
WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE               
AREA ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. NORTHEASTERLY AND                 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MON-WED PD AS THE STORM                
PASSES BY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MZ                                                        
AVIATION/MARINE...MZ                                                            
LONG TERM...JV                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1000 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
S/WV OVER MN CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD THIS MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED            
S/WV COMBINED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION                 
HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE               
RAIN ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF FA INTO NW WI AND EASTERN MN. A FEW             
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED WITHIN THE RAIN AREA WITH ELEVATED CAPES                
BETWEEN 500 AND 100 J/KG ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF RAIN AREA.            
RAIN MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS MQT THIS AFTERNOON BUT BEST FORCING             
WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                      
STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO IS CONTINUING TO FEED              
DRIER AIR ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON NERLY WINDS AND RAIN WILL             
HAVE TO OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE               
COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING HIGH AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM               
THE RAIN INTO THE DRIER AIR WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY                  
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMITS ITS MOVEMENT NORTHWARD.  CURRENT              
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. WITH RAIN EXPECTED            
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEST AND EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WILL NEED TO              
LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.                              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH             
SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH               
INTO THE WRN CONUS AND A DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE E. AT              
THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH WRN UPPER MI AND              
SW MN TO LOW PRES OVER ERN CO. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH            
OVER NEBRASKA AND 40 KT SRLY INFLOW (STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION)                  
TOWARD THE 850 MB WARM FRONT WITH STRONG 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT              
SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA FROM SW MN THROUGH ERN MN INTO              
NW WI. A WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CO.                         
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER MI WERE GIVING WAY TO AN              
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SW...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS.                  
TODAY...EXPECT NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD INTO W UPPER MI...THE FOCUS             
OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION...THIS MORNING               
AND INTO CNTRL PORTIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE LIFTS            
TOWARD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ADVANCES                  
NORTHWARD. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES              
OF 30-35 KT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH             
SMALL HAIL.                                                                     
TONIGHT...THE 00Z NAM WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE GFS AND                  
CANADIAN REGIONAL EVEN THOUGH THE THE 850 MB FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD              
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET ALSO                   
SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE...FCST KEEPS HIGHER POPS GOING...ESPECIALLY            
OVER THE NORTH. AGAIN...THE MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE               
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF                 
PRODUCING MORE THAN SMALL HAIL. WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE AREAS OF FOG            
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.                                                        
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STALL THE SURFACE           
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI WITH PERSISTENT LOW             
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRES A BUILDING 1035 MB HIGH OVER NRN             
ONTARIO. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN OVER THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER            
OVER THE SOUTH. IF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN THICK ENOUGH OVER THE NORTH              
MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO LOWERED FURTHER. SHRA/TSRA PROB WILL DROP OFF            
TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE MORNING AS FOCUS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT               
WILL BE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND                 
GREATER CAPPING WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OR NEAR             
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID                    
60S...EXPECT GREATER FOG COVERAGE AND MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL             
AVERAGES.                                                                       
SUNDAY INTO MON...WITH GREATER MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE MID                 
LEVEL LOW...THE ECMWF/UKMET WERE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH                  
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/CMC...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS             
FCST. SO...THE FCST WILL CONTINUE LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SCENARIO. A               
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ITS             
WAKE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WIL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER              
GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVES IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL            
LOW SHOULD HELP TRIGEER ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL THROUGH TONIGHT AT BOTH TAF               
SITES...DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP               
ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN                      
WISCONSIN. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PASS ACROSS CMX OVER THE                
NEXT FEW HOURS...REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE. A STRONGER AREA            
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA OVER CENTRAL MN WILL LIFT NE ACROSS                
CMX...ENOUGH THAT IT WAS WARRANTED TO INCLUDE A TS MENTION IN A                 
TEMPO GROUP. SOME OF THE OUTER EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND TSRA ARE               
EXPECTED TO CLIP SAW...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION TS. RAIN            
FALLING INTO COOL AIR NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ENFORCED BY               
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO BECOME IFR TO            
LIFR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT FLOWING            
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GENERATION OF MORE             
SHOWERS AND TSRA THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE                   
GENERATION AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AS THE FRONTAL INVERSION                   
LOWERS. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR              
DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE EASTERLY FLOW             
UPSLOPES. HAVE WENT MOST PESSIMISTIC AT CMX THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF              
FCST BECAUSE OF BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND THE EASTERLY                  
UPSLOPE FLOW.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NE                   
COLORADO ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH                     
SAT...WITH SOME DRIFTING NORTH OR SOUTH. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...               
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS              
IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SAT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT              
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN NE COLORADO LIFTING INTO THE                   
DAKOTAS WILL RESULT IN WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KT ON WESTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM THIS                   
EVENING WHERE THE NE WINDS REACH GALE FORCE. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A             
MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS...SINCE THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR              
ON THE HIGHER PLATFORMS. LATER SHIFTS TODAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE               
WATCHING FOR THE NEED OF A GALE WARNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW                 
LIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CAUSE SE WINDS TO                    
STRENGTHEN ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PERHAPS UP TO 30 KT. LOOK FOR             
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON SUNDAY             
AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW ONTARIO LOW MOVES INTO LAKE              
SUPERIOR. BEYOND SUN...THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH ANOTHER            
POSSIBLE STRONG LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOR MON AND/OR               
TUE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
UPDATE...MZ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
759 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.                                  
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.                              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH             
SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH               
INTO THE WRN CONUS AND A DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE E. AT              
THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH WRN UPPER MI AND              
SW MN TO LOW PRES OVER ERN CO. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH            
OVER NEBRASKA AND 40 KT SRLY INFLOW (STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION)                  
TOWARD THE 850 MB WARM FRONT WITH STRONG 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT              
SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA FROM SW MN THROUGH ERN MN INTO              
NW WI. A WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CO.                         
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER MI WERE GIVING WAY TO AN              
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SW...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS.                  
TODAY...EXPECT NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD INTO W UPPER MI...THE FOCUS             
OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION...THIS MORNING               
AND INTO CNTRL PORTIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE LIFTS            
TOWARD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ADVANCES                  
NORTHWARD. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES              
OF 30-35 KT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH             
SMALL HAIL.                                                                     
TONIGHT...THE 00Z NAM WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE GFS AND                  
CANADIAN REGIONAL EVEN THOUGH THE THE 850 MB FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD              
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET ALSO                   
SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE...FCST KEEPS HIGHER POPS GOING...ESPECIALLY            
OVER THE NORTH. AGAIN...THE MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE               
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF                 
PRODUCING MORE THAN SMALL HAIL. WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE AREAS OF FOG            
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.                                                        
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STALL THE SURFACE           
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI WITH PERSISTENT LOW             
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRES A BUILDING 1035 MB HIGH OVER NRN             
ONTARIO. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN OVER THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER            
OVER THE SOUTH. IF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN THICK ENOUGH OVER THE NORTH              
MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO LOWERED FURTHER. SHRA/TSRA PROB WILL DROP OFF            
TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE MORNING AS FOCUS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT               
WILL BE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND                 
GREATER CAPPING WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OR NEAR             
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID                    
60S...EXPECT GREATER FOG COVERAGE AND MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL             
AVERAGES.                                                                       
SUNDAY INTO MON...WITH GREATER MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE MID                 
LEVEL LOW...THE ECMWF/UKMET WERE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH                  
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/CMC...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS             
FCST. SO...THE FCST WILL CONTINUE LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SCENARIO. A               
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ITS             
WAKE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WIL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER              
GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVES IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL            
LOW SHOULD HELP TRIGEER ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL THROUGH TONIGHT AT BOTH TAF               
SITES...DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP               
ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN                      
WISCONSIN. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PASS ACROSS CMX OVER THE                
NEXT FEW HOURS...REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE. A STRONGER AREA            
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA OVER CENTRAL MN WILL LIFT NE ACROSS                
CMX...ENOUGH THAT IT WAS WARRANTED TO INCLUDE A TS MENTION IN A                 
TEMPO GROUP. SOME OF THE OUTER EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND TSRA ARE               
EXPECTED TO CLIP SAW...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION TS. RAIN            
FALLING INTO COOL AIR NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ENFORCED BY               
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO BECOME IFR TO            
LIFR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT FLOWING            
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GENERATION OF MORE             
SHOWERS AND TSRA THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE                   
GENERATION AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AS THE FRONTAL INVERSION                   
LOWERS. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR              
DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE EASTERLY FLOW             
UPSLOPES. HAVE WENT MOST PESSIMISTIC AT CMX THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF              
FCST BECAUSE OF BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND THE EASTERLY                  
UPSLOPE FLOW.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NE                   
COLORADO ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH                     
SAT...WITH SOME DRIFTING NORTH OR SOUTH. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...               
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS              
IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SAT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT              
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN NE COLORADO LIFTING INTO THE                   
DAKOTAS WILL RESULT IN WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KT ON WESTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM THIS                   
EVENING WHERE THE NE WINDS REACH GALE FORCE. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A             
MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS...SINCE THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR              
ON THE HIGHER PLATFORMS. LATER SHIFTS TODAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE               
WATCHING FOR THE NEED OF A GALE WARNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW                 
LIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CAUSE SE WINDS TO                    
STRENGTHEN ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PERHAPS UP TO 30 KT. LOOK FOR             
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON SUNDAY             
AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW ONTARIO LOW MOVES INTO LAKE              
SUPERIOR. BEYOND SUN...THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH ANOTHER            
POSSIBLE STRONG LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOR MON AND/OR               
TUE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.                              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH             
SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH               
INTO THE WRN CONUS AND A DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE E. AT              
THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH WRN UPPER MI AND              
SW MN TO LOW PRES OVER ERN CO. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH            
OVER NEBRASKA AND 40 KT SRLY INFLOW (STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION)                  
TOWARD THE 850 MB WARM FRONT WITH STRONG 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT              
SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA FROM SW MN THROUGH ERN MN INTO              
NW WI. A WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CO.                         
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER MI WERE GIVING WAY TO AN              
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SW...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS.                  
TODAY...EXPECT NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD INTO W UPPER MI...THE FOCUS             
OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION...THIS MORNING               
AND INTO CNTRL PORTIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE LIFTS            
TOWARD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ADVANCES                  
NORTHWARD. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES              
OF 30-35 KT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH             
SMALL HAIL.                                                                     
TONIGHT...THE 00Z NAM WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE GFS AND                  
CANADIAN REGIONAL EVEN THOUGH THE THE 850 MB FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD              
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET ALSO                   
SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE...FCST KEEPS HIGHER POPS GOING...ESPECIALLY            
OVER THE NORTH. AGAIN...THE MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE               
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF                 
PRODUCING MORE THAN SMALL HAIL. WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE AREAS OF FOG            
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.                                                        
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STALL THE SURFACE           
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI WITH PERSISTENT LOW             
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRES A BUILDING 1035 MB HIGH OVER NRN             
ONTARIO. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN OVER THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER            
OVER THE SOUTH. IF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN THICK ENOUGH OVER THE NORTH              
MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO LOWERED FURTHER. SHRA/TSRA PROB WILL DROP OFF            
TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE MORNING AS FOCUS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT               
WILL BE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND                 
GREATER CAPPING WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OR NEAR             
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID                    
60S...EXPECT GREATER FOG COVERAGE AND MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL             
AVERAGES.                                                                       
SUNDAY INTO MON...WITH GREATER MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE MID                 
LEVEL LOW...THE ECMWF/UKMET WERE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH                  
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/CMC...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS             
FCST. SO...THE FCST WILL CONTINUE LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SCENARIO. A               
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ITS             
WAKE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WIL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER              
GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVES IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL            
LOW SHOULD HELP TRIGEER ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TNGT FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOME LLVL DRY AIR             
SHOWN TO THE NW ON 00Z RAOBS/RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS (SFC DWPTS IN THE              
30S OVER NE MN) SEEPING INTO CWA BEHIND WEAK COLD FNT. HOWEVER...               
SOME FOG STILL PSBL AT SAW FARTHER FM CORE OF THIS DRY AIR AND WHERE            
LLVL N FLOW BEHIND THE FNT UPSLOPES. OTRW...PERSISTENT SW FLOW ABV              
SHALLOW FNTL BNDRY WL ALLOW SC AREA TO THE SW TO ADVECT INTO THE FA.            
SINCE MSTR IS FAIRLY ELEVATED...EXPECT ANY CIGS TO BE IN THE VFR                
RANGE. FNT WL STALL TO THE S EARLY FRI...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N AS               
SHRTWV OVER THE PLAINS MOVES NEWD. INTERACTION BTWN THIS SHRTWV AND             
RETURNING MSTR/FNT WL CAUSE INCRSD SHRA CHCS BY FRI AFTN...                     
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W AT NOSE OF SHARPER H85 LLJ. HOWEVER...MODELS              
HAVE TRENDED SHARPER WITH DRY ADVCTN BEHIND THE FNT PASSING THRU THE            
FA TNGT...SO SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF LOWER IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS RELATIVE            
TO PREVIOUS FCST. BUT THOSE POORER CONDITIONS STILL SEEM LIKELY BY              
FRI EVNG AS SFC WARM FNT APRCHS AND SFC BASED COOLER AIR BECOMES                
INCRSGLY SHALLOW.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NE                   
COLORADO ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH                     
SAT...WITH SOME DRIFTING NORTH OR SOUTH. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...               
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS              
IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SAT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT              
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN NE COLORADO LIFTING INTO THE                   
DAKOTAS WILL RESULT IN WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KT ON WESTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM THIS                   
EVENING WHERE THE NE WINDS REACH GALE FORCE. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A             
MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS...SINCE THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR              
ON THE HIGHER PLATFORMS. LATER SHIFTS TODAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE               
WATCHING FOR THE NEED OF A GALE WARNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW                 
LIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CAUSE SE WINDS TO                    
STRENGTHEN ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PERHAPS UP TO 30 KT. LOOK FOR             
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON SUNDAY             
AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW ONTARIO LOW MOVES INTO LAKE              
SUPERIOR. BEYOND SUN...THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH ANOTHER            
POSSIBLE STRONG LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOR MON AND/OR               
TUE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONLY SOME MINOR CHGS TO GOING FCST. TENDED TO LIMIT FOG COVG A BIT              
FM PREVIOUS FCST OVER THE CNTRL AS GFS SHOWS RETURNING MSTR ON THE              
300K ISENTROPIC SFC (ARND H85) AFT MIDNGT IN WSW H85 FLOW...WHICH               
WOULD RESULT IN A SC DECK PER GFS FCST SDNGS. IN FACT...STLT IMAGERY            
DOES SHOW SOME CLD DVLPG OVER NW WI. DVLPMNT OF THIS CLD WOULD TEND             
TO RESTRICT DIURNAL COOLING AND FOG COVG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W                
HALF WITH SOME WEAK NR SFC DRY ADVCTN BEHIND WEAK COLD FNT DRIFTING             
SE ACRS THE FA. BETTER CHC OF MORE WDSPRD FOG SHOULD BE OVER THE ERN            
ZNS...WHERE THIS 300K MSTR WL ARRIVE LATEST AND NR SFC FLOW WL                  
REMAIN SW LONGER TO DRAW HIER SFC DWPTS INTO THIS AREA.                         
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS                
ONTARIO AND CURRENTLY APPROACHING FAR WEST LAKE SUPERIOR. MAINLY                
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED                 
TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S AT                 
MANY LOCATIONS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC 50H ANALYSIS SHOWING SHOWING S/WV            
ENERGY HELPING TO CARVER OUT A TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER            
RIDGING IN THE EAST.  IN BETWEEN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW                 
EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND STALL OUT            
ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO TIME S/WVS WILL LIFT             
NORTHWEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH               
TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT BUT             
NOSE OF THE JET WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AND THAT IS WHERE THE              
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIP WILL EXIST LATER TONIGHT.             
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT               
BUT MOST OF IT WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AND CONFINED BELOW 85H.                    
THUS...EXPECT A STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FRONT DOES STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA WEAK                    
CONVERGENT FLOW COMBINED WITH AT LEAST SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE            
WIND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES FOR              
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO ALLOW AREAS              
OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT.                 
A S/WV WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL JET AXIS               
WILL SHIFT A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA            
AND WITH THE AIDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE             
AREA EXPECT SHRAS AND A FEW TSRAS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS BY                 
MIDDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL AREA AND LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON.  FORCING WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE EAST AND WILL ONLY             
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS THERE VS. THE LIKELIES IN THE WEST.               
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE HELD               
DOWN A FEW DEGREES BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  IF ANY BREAKS DO               
DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL INTO THE 70S.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU)                                       
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART OF NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRI EVENING                
WHICH MAY BRING A LULL IN PCPN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. YET WITH                   
LOW-LVL JET OF 30-35 KT NOSING INTO THE WEST ALONG WITH MLCAPES                 
600-800 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT THERE COULD BE A FEW              
ISOLD SVR STORMS OVER FAR WRN UPR MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI                 
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.             
CONCERN FRI NIGHT IS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STALL OUT OVER THE             
NRN UPR MI/SRN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES               
OVER IT S ADVERTISED BY UKMET/ECMWF SOLNS. THIS IN TURN COULD BRING             
ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION...SO WILL CONTINUE THE GOING CHC POPS               
OVER THE WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE            
KEWEENAW. SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOK FINE FOR SCNTRL COUNTIES FARTHER AWAY            
FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. LOOK FOR MORE FOG             
TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE                 
LOWER 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 1.5 INCHES (GREATER              
THAN 250PCT OF NORMAL). THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN               
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...UNSEASONABLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE                 
YEAR.                                                                           
MODELS INDICATE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY ON SAT OR                
PERHAPS MOVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER N SAT. WITH RISING 5H HEIGHTS PROGGED             
AND NO SHORTWAVE NOTED FOR ADDED FORCING WOULD EXPECT A DECREASED               
THREAT OF PCPN. HOWEVER...FEEL COMPELLED TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS            
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN PRESENCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS             
S OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WITH                
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WITH DWPTS INTO THE LWR 60S. EXPECT COOLER              
TEMPS OF 65 TO 70F OVER THE KEWEENAW CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL                      
BOUNDARY...AND ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE AREA.                                
ALL MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING FARTHER             
N OF AREA BY SAT NIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS ONLY OVER THE FAR NRN              
AND WRN PORTIONS OF CWFA...BUT REMOVED POPS ELSEWHERE. AGAIN...IT               
WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM NIGHT SAT NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS              
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. CONTINUED MOIST DEWPOINTS AND LOW DP                     
DEPRESSIONS WILL RESULT IN MORE FOG.                                            
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER PER YESTERDAY`S GFS RUNS WITH MOVEMENT OF            
WRN CONUS TROF ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW THE PLAINS COLD FRONT                 
MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN FCST AREA BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. WITH                   
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT...AND AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVING OVER             
THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL KEEP GOING CHC POPS WITH HIGHEST              
POPS (40 PCT) WEST.                                                             
AS COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA AND BECOMES STALLED OUT SUN NIGHT             
INTO MON NIGHT EXPECT BETTER CHCS OF RAINFALL AS A SERIES OF                    
SHORTWAVES RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER               
VALUES (EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES) AND NEG SHOWALTER VALUES EXPECT SCT               
TSRA TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.              
BEST DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT INTO             
TUE AS NEG TILT WRN CONUS TROF FINALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.            
INCREASING DPVA...DEEP Q-VECT CONV AND UPR DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF TROF              
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND                 
WOULD ANTICIPATE POPS WILL NEED TO BE BEEFED UP TO LIKELY OR                    
CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT.                                                      
WITH CLOSED LOW HANGING AROUND THE AREA AND LINGERING CYCLONIC                  
FLOW...KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR SHRA INTO WED ACROSS THE CFWA THEN                  
TAPERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC OVER WRN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WED NIGHT              
INTO THU.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TNGT FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOME LLVL DRY AIR             
SHOWN TO THE NW ON 00Z RAOBS/RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS (SFC DWPTS IN THE              
30S OVER NE MN) SEEPING INTO CWA BEHIND WEAK COLD FNT. HOWEVER...               
SOME FOG STILL PSBL AT SAW FARTHER FM CORE OF THIS DRY AIR AND WHERE            
LLVL N FLOW BEHIND THE FNT UPSLOPES. OTRW...PERSISTENT SW FLOW ABV              
SHALLOW FNTL BNDRY WL ALLOW SC AREA TO THE SW TO ADVECT INTO THE FA.            
SINCE MSTR IS FAIRLY ELEVATED...EXPECT ANY CIGS TO BE IN THE VFR                
RANGE. FNT WL STALL TO THE S EARLY FRI...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N AS               
SHRTWV OVER THE PLAINS MOVES NEWD. INTERACTION BTWN THIS SHRTWV AND             
RETURNING MSTR/FNT WL CAUSE INCRSD SHRA CHCS BY FRI AFTN...                     
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W AT NOSE OF SHARPER H85 LLJ. HOWEVER...MODELS              
HAVE TRENDED SHARPER WITH DRY ADVCTN BEHIND THE FNT PASSING THRU THE            
FA TNGT...SO SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF LOWER IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS RELATIVE            
TO PREVIOUS FCST. BUT THOSE POORER CONDITIONS STILL SEEM LIKELY BY              
FRI EVNG AS SFC WARM FNT APRCHS AND SFC BASED COOLER AIR BECOMES                
INCRSGLY SHALLOW.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTH                
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOK             
FOR ENE WINDS TO INCREASE ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BECAUSE OF THE               
DEEPENING OF THE PRESSURE AREAS...WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE            
ON FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE              
FORCE WINDS SINCE WIND SPEEDS RIGHT ABOVE THE COLDER SURFACE ARE                
PROGGED AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NE INTO                 
SOUTH DAKOTA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BELOW             
20 KNOTS...LIKELY BY SAT MORNING. WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE THEN                 
PLANNED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NW                 
ONTARIO AND WEAKENS. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR...SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERLIES EXPECTED FOR SAT                 
NIGHT AND SUN BACK AROUND TO THE NW THEN NE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/SYNOPSIS...MZ                                                        
LONG TERM...JV                                                                  
MARINE...MZ                                                                     
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
235 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
...UPDATED AVIATION...                                                          
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL BE SPREADING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF               
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. CAP WILL BE A FACTOR              
IN GETTING INITIATION GOING...BUT CAN NOT IGNORE THE MOISTURE                   
RAPIDLY STREAMING NORTHWARD AND THE POTENTIAL OF SURFACE HEATING                
REALIZING CAPES IN THE 1200 TO 1800 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  RUC                  
SHOWING CAP SHOULD DISSOLVE FOR MUCH OF FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT                  
WESTERN FRINGES. NEW WRF SHOWING THE LOSS OF THE CAP A LITTLE                   
FURTHER WEST. THINK ONE PROBLEM FOR EXTREME WESTERN AREA IS LACK OF             
SOME SURFACE HEATING DUE TO CLOUD COVER MOVING IN.  WILL SCALE BACK             
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AREAS DUE TO             
THE INCREASING CLOUDS...AND GO WITH WHERE THINK CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN             
THE UPPER 80S MAY MORE LIKELY BE REALIZED.                                      
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/320 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007/                                                     
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CHURNING FROM SRN NEVADA TOWARDS THE                
CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE END OF THE             
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HEIGHT FALLS OVER               
THE HIGH PLAINS HAS INDUCED LEE PRESSURE FALLS...CAUSING INCREASED              
LOW LEVEL SLY WINDS DRAWING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI             
RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY            
TO A MORE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS                
RAPID DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES IN A MORE LATE SPRING/SUMMERLIKE                
WEATHER PATTERN. HAVE FOLLOWED A NEAR PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE                   
FORECAST TODAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MID/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES                   
GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL MAY BE OFFSET                   
SOMEWHAT BY THE PREVALENT CU. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS              
ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK                
HEATING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY WEAK CAPPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT             
CHARACTERIZED BY LITTLE FORCING...YET WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS                     
CONTAINING 15 G/KG OF MOISTURE. BOTH GFS AND LOCAL ARW-WRF MODELS               
SUPPORT ISOLATED CELLS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...QUICKLY                 
DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.                                                          
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER WAVE AS               
IT CROSSES INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE A                   
DISTINCT OUTLIER IN SPLITTING WAVE ENERGY...AND HOLDING A                       
SIGNIFICANT PORTION BACK TO THE SW. SREF MEMBERS SHOW QUITE A LARGE             
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF H5 50DM SPREAD                 
AMONG ITS MEMBERS. INTERESTINGLY...SREF MEAN FORECASTS SUPPORT A                
MORE SINGULAR WAVE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF.                        
THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IN THIS             
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.                                         
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...SFC FRONT SHOULD BE EXTENDED FROM NEAR A               
KOAX-KCNK LINE WITH A MODEST SLY LLJ AIDING IN THETA-E ADVECTION AND            
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL                
MOST LIKELY BE EJECTED AHEAD OF THE MAIN ENERGY PACKET...AND                    
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND RATHER DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE             
COULD LEAD TO SOME SCT PREFRONTAL DEEPER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MAIN             
SHOW SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ENTERS FAR NWRN MISSOURI SUNDAY            
AFTERNOON AS MORE SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY AND UVV OVERSPREADS THE                
AREA. WITH THE MAIN WAVE REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT                   
SUNDAY...TRUE SYNOPTIC SFC FRONT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS                    
EWD...ALTHOUGH WIND PERTURBATIONS ON THE MESOSCALE ARE QUITE LIKELY             
WITH SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE               
FORECAST AREA. SUBJECTIVE MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW SEVERE                   
PROBABILITIES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN              
VERY POOR...AND WIND FIELDS NECESSARY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER              
LAG THE SFC FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG               
THE STAGNANT LOW LEVEL FRONT WITH A FEED OF PWATS AOA 2.00 INCHES               
FROM THE SOUTH. THE POSSIBLE SAVING GRACE AGAINST A WIDESPREAD                  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT IS THE RELATIVELY HIGH FFG VALUES AND LACK             
OF ANTECEDENT RAINFALL NECESSARY TO SATURATE SOILS. WILL BEGIN TO               
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE MORNING HWO.                                  
UPPER WAVE SHOULD FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON                       
MONDAY...CLEARING THE ERN PARTS OF MISSOURI BY THE AFTERNOON.                   
AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL WITH CAA                  
ALOFT...AND SEE ONLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION AS A THREAT.                       
REGARDLESS...VERY STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE QUITE AN EXTENSIVE             
AREA OF PRECIP...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH               
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY CUT BACK ON POPS PAST MONDAY                     
MORNING...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO CUT EARLIER AND FURTHER WITH FUTURE                
MODEL RUNS IF THEY CONTINUE THE TREND OF QUICKER CLEARING. ONLY                 
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON                 
MONDAY ARE VERY UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND               
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL CAA.                                                     
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS              
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED...BUT SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.                
CEILINGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOWER                 
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1029 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL BE SPREADING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF               
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. CAP WILL BE A FACTOR              
IN GETTING INITIATION GOING...BUT CAN NOT IGNORE THE MOISTURE                   
RAPIDLY STREAMING NORTHWARD AND THE POTENTIAL OF SURFACE HEATING                
REALIZING CAPES IN THE 1200 TO 1800 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  RUC                  
SHOWING CAP SHOULD DISSOLVE FOR MUCH OF FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT                  
WESTERN FRINGES. NEW WRF SHOWING THE LOSS OF THE CAP A LITTLE                   
FURTHER WEST. THINK ONE PROBLEM FOR EXTREME WESTERN AREA IS LACK OF             
SOME SURFACE HEATING DUE TO CLOUD COVER MOVING IN.  WILL SCALE BACK             
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AREAS DUE TO             
THE INCREASING CLOUDS...AND GO WITH WHERE THINK CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN             
THE UPPER 80S MAY MORE LIKELY BE REALIZED.                                      
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/320 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007/                                                     
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CHURNING FROM SRN NEVADA TOWARDS THE                
CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE END OF THE             
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HEIGHT FALLS OVER               
THE HIGH PLAINS HAS INDUCED LEE PRESSURE FALLS...CAUSING INCREASED              
LOW LEVEL SLY WINDS DRAWING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI             
RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY            
TO A MORE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS                
RAPID DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES IN A MORE LATE SPRING/SUMMERLIKE                
WEATHER PATTERN. HAVE FOLLOWED A NEAR PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE                   
FORECAST TODAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MID/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES                   
GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL MAY BE OFFSET                   
SOMEWHAT BY THE PREVALENT CU. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS              
ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK                
HEATING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY WEAK CAPPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT             
CHARACTERIZED BY LITTLE FORCING...YET WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS                     
CONTAINING 15 G/KG OF MOISTURE. BOTH GFS AND LOCAL ARW-WRF MODELS               
SUPPORT ISOLATED CELLS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...QUICKLY                 
DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.                                                          
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER WAVE AS               
IT CROSSES INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE A                   
DISTINCT OUTLIER IN SPLITTING WAVE ENERGY...AND HOLDING A                       
SIGNIFICANT PORTION BACK TO THE SW. SREF MEMBERS SHOW QUITE A LARGE             
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF H5 50DM SPREAD                 
AMONG ITS MEMBERS. INTERESTINGLY...SREF MEAN FORECASTS SUPPORT A                
MORE SINGULAR WAVE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF.                        
THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IN THIS             
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.                                         
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...SFC FRONT SHOULD BE EXTENDED FROM NEAR A               
KOAX-KCNK LINE WITH A MODEST SLY LLJ AIDING IN THETA-E ADVECTION AND            
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL                
MOST LIKELY BE EJECTED AHEAD OF THE MAIN ENERGY PACKET...AND                    
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND RATHER DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE             
COULD LEAD TO SOME SCT PREFRONTAL DEEPER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MAIN             
SHOW SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ENTERS FAR NWRN MISSOURI SUNDAY            
AFTERNOON AS MORE SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY AND UVV OVERSPREADS THE                
AREA. WITH THE MAIN WAVE REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT                   
SUNDAY...TRUE SYNOPTIC SFC FRONT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS                    
EWD...ALTHOUGH WIND PERTURBATIONS ON THE MESOSCALE ARE QUITE LIKELY             
WITH SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE               
FORECAST AREA. SUBJECTIVE MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW SEVERE                   
PROBABILITIES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN              
VERY POOR...AND WIND FIELDS NECESSARY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER              
LAG THE SFC FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG               
THE STAGNANT LOW LEVEL FRONT WITH A FEED OF PWATS AOA 2.00 INCHES               
FROM THE SOUTH. THE POSSIBLE SAVING GRACE AGAINST A WIDESPREAD                  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT IS THE RELATIVELY HIGH FFG VALUES AND LACK             
OF ANTECEDENT RAINFALL NECESSARY TO SATURATE SOILS. WILL BEGIN TO               
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE MORNING HWO.                                  
UPPER WAVE SHOULD FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON                       
MONDAY...CLEARING THE ERN PARTS OF MISSOURI BY THE AFTERNOON.                   
AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL WITH CAA                  
ALOFT...AND SEE ONLY SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION AS A THREAT.                       
REGARDLESS...VERY STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE QUITE AN EXTENSIVE             
AREA OF PRECIP...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH               
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY CUT BACK ON POPS PAST MONDAY                     
MORNING...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO CUT EARLIER AND FURTHER WITH FUTURE                
MODEL RUNS IF THEY CONTINUE THE TREND OF QUICKER CLEARING. ONLY                 
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON                 
MONDAY ARE VERY UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND               
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL CAA.                                                     
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS               
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CU             
FORMING AROUND 3-4K FT. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                       
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
841 PM MDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...                                          
UPDATE FOR ZONES THIS EVENING. NO UPDATE FOR AFP. UPPER TROUGH                  
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MONTANA SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA THIS EVENING                
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW                
ABOVE 6500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN                   
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND CLOSING IT OFF AS IT                
APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGES TO GRIDS               
TONIGHT WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FROM COOKE CITY                     
NORTHEAST THROUGH BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP. RUC40 IS SHOWING STRONG                 
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THIS AREA WHICH WILL REMAIN THERE                  
MOST OF THE NIGHT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TREASURE COUNTY WEST              
TO PARK COUNTY. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS NORTH                     
CENTRAL WYOMING AS LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM AND UPPER DIFFLUENT                
FLOW INCREASING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUSTER                    
COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.                                            
WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.               
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BUT WILL BE                
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD POCKET WITH UPPER LOW MOVES IN.               
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE                     
PLAINS AND ONLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE               
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT BUT                   
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. RICHMOND                            
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...                           
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF                 
THE EXTENDED WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                
LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                     
WEEKEND IS PROGGGED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE STATE OVER THE                       
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY ALLOWING               
FOR RIDGING TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER STORM               
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY AND                        
PROGRESSES EAST BUT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH                    
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CAN BE                      
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS                     
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR A                   
850MB RIDGE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN                   
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.                                                       
ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO                     
WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWER CHANCES. WILL KEEP POPS                      
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS               
MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS AND EXPAND THEM TO THE EAST AS WELL.                  
RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS                
AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. HOOLEY                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS...DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EXPECTED              
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING              
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                                                          
CURRENTLY PRECIPITATION ...VIA SEVERAL MODES...PREVAILS ACROSS                  
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING                  
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM LVM AREA WILL FILL IN EASTWARD THIS                     
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                                                          
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY                              
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL HAS DEVELOPED EAST AND                      
NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO                    
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.                                                       
ADDITIONALLY...A LINE OF THUNDERSHOWERS EXTENDS SOUTH FROM AROUND MILES         
CITY INTO WYOMING.                                                              
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND                     
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A SNOW...RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE                  
FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE LVM AREA AFTER               
MIDNIGHT. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS ARE                    
EXPECTED IN THE BEARTOOTH AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND                  
INTO THE MORNING HOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND OBSCURING THE                  
MOUNTAINS. GILSTAD                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 039/044 034/059 039/069 042/073 044/073 044/067 044/066                     
    +7/O    20/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    00/B    00/B                        
LVM 034/041 028/054 037/065 038/071 041/070 039/064 040/063                     
    +6/O    20/U    00/B    00/B    02/W    00/B    00/B                        
HDN 043/047 035/059 034/069 039/075 040/074 040/071 040/068                     
    96/R    20/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    00/B    00/B                        
MLS 042/048 035/059 036/068 039/072 043/073 039/069 039/068                     
    76/R    20/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B                        
4BQ 046/051 038/057 033/066 037/073 040/075 040/070 039/069                     
    55/R    51/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B                        
BHK 043/048 035/055 032/062 036/068 036/070 036/065 036/064                     
    55/R    52/R    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B                        
SHR 044/048 035/054 031/066 037/073 036/074 036/069 034/066                     
    66/R    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR                 
      ZONE 67.                                                                  
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
318 PM MDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...                                          
12Z RUN OF SHORT TERM MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT OVER                   
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS ON EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND                    
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL               
WIND FIELDS WHICH MAY PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE. WILL BASE DETAILS OF               
STORM EVENT ON RUC AND NAM WHICH ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST                
WINDS WHICH IS OPPOSED TO GFS FIELDS WHICH ARE NORTHERLY ORIENTED.              
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE               
EAST TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE FEATURE IS THE 150KT UPPER JET ROUNDING                
SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP BRING DEEP MOISTURE FETCH INTO OUR REGION                
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE FETCH QUITE OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.               
GOOD EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM AS                   
WELL WHICH IS INDICATED BY UNSTABLE SIGNATURE OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM                
AND SOME LIGHTNING OVER WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
BULK OF MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES                 
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST                   
THIS EVENING TO DROP SNOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...WILL UPGRADE                    
WINTER STORM WATCH TO WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVIEST                
SNOW WILL HIT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE TROUGH AXIS                    
MOVES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TURNS WINDS TO NORTHWEST                        
EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF ANY HEAVIER SNOW RATES. WILL MENTION                   
GUSTY WINDS WITH SYSTEM TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS                   
CONDITIONS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.                                                
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW.                       
EXCEPTION MAY BE LIVINGSTON WHERE COLDER AIR DEEPENS TONIGHT SO                 
WILL MENTION CHANCE OF SOME LOW ACCUMULATION THERE. RED LODGE                   
MAY SEE MIX LATE TONIGHT TURNING TO SNOW SATURDAY MORNING AS SNOW               
LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 6000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.                                 
AS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY COLD AIR...SOME DYNAMICS AND BRIEF               
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW WILL PRODUCE DECENT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS               
OF BIG HORNS. WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY...AND                
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AS SYSTEM FURTHER                
DEVELOPS.                                                                       
THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO DROP SOME PRETTY LARGE PRECIPITATION               
TOTALS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DEPENDING ON WHERE MOST                   
FAVORABLE BANDING SETS UP UNDER JET. TOTAL PRECIPITATION FROM 0.25              
TO 0.50 MAY BE COMMON WITH AROUND AN INCH LOCALLY POSSIBLE.                     
WILL BE UNDERCUTTING TEMPS SATURDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD                   
COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WILL UNDERCUT IN EAST SUNDAY AS                        
ANTICIPATE SYSTEM TAKING ITS TIME MOVING OUT. BT                                
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...                           
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF                 
THE EXTENDED WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                
LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                     
WEEKEND IS PROGGGED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE STATE OVER THE                       
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY ALLOWING               
FOR RIDGING TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER STORM               
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY AND                        
PROGRESSES EAST BUT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH                    
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CAN BE                      
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS                     
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR A                   
850MB RIDGE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN                   
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.                                                       
ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO                     
WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWER CHANCES. WILL KEEP POPS                      
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS               
MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS AND EXPAND THEM TO THE EAST AS WELL.                  
RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS                
AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. HOOLEY                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO THE                 
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE                  
KLVM VICINITY WILL FILL IN EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                 
SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NEAR THE BEARTOOTH                
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE KLVM AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT HIGHER                     
ELEVATIONS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING               
HOURS IN THE BEARTOOTH AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS REDUCING                          
VISIBILITIES AND OBSCURING MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY                  
IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STOPPKOTTE                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 039/044 034/059 039/069 042/073 044/073 044/067 044/066                     
    97/R    20/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    00/B    00/B                        
LVM 034/040 028/054 037/065 038/071 041/070 039/064 040/063                     
    86/O    20/U    00/B    00/B    02/W    00/B    00/B                        
HDN 043/047 035/059 034/069 039/075 040/074 040/071 040/068                     
    86/R    20/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    00/B    00/B                        
MLS 042/048 035/059 036/068 039/072 043/073 039/069 039/068                     
    66/R    20/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B                        
4BQ 046/049 038/057 033/066 037/073 040/075 040/070 039/069                     
    35/R    51/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B                        
BHK 043/048 035/055 032/062 036/068 036/070 036/065 036/064                     
    45/R    52/R    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B                        
SHR 044/049 035/054 031/066 037/073 036/074 036/069 034/066                     
    56/R    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR                 
      ZONE 67.                                                                  
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
230 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE WITH APPROACHING              
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS...                                             
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WESTERN US            
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEVADA...WITH STRONGEST 300 MB WINDS AHEAD OF             
THE LOW AT 125 KNOTS COMPARED TO 115 KNOT WINDS ON BACK SIDE.                   
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST                 
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.  SURFACE WARM                
FRONT HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WAS ANALYZED              
IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 06Z.                          
THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE             
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS NOW MUCH               
LESS AGREEMENT WITH NWP SOLUTIONS THAN WHAT EARLIER RUNS WERE                   
SHOWING.  ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY...AND THE SREF             
PROBABILITIES OF VARIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAS DECREASED.  THERE IS              
SLIGHT AGREEMENT THAT THE MORE CONCENTRATED ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF SHORTWAVE VORTICITY                
LEFT IN THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF TO MEANDER EAST ON MONDAY.  THE            
OBSERVED TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LOWERING            
WITH TIME BASED ON THE 2.0 POTENTIAL VORTICITY UNIT HAVING LOWERED              
FROM 425 MB 24 HOURS AGO TO 570 MB AT 06Z.  THEREFORE STILL EXPECT              
RESPONDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE SYSTEM                
SPINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY                
STRONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING DUE TO THEIR CONFUSION WITH HOW THE            
SHORTWAVE VORTICITY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE                  
PLAINS.  ESSENTIALLY THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE GOING HIGH POPS              
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH THE INCREASING MODEL SOLUTION                   
SPREAD...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MAKING SIGNIFICANT                       
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...WHICH SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.                 
THE TWO PERIODS OF GREATER UNPREDICTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE FROM 00Z            
SUNDAY TO 12Z SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN DURING THE DRY SLOT PROGRESSION               
WHICH TAKES PLACE IN THIS AREA ON MONDAY.  SATURDAY NIGHT STILL                 
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE            
FRONT AS DISCUSSED IN SWODY1...THEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET             
AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT               
MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  THIS                   
SCENARIO IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GOING FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN                
THAT IDEA.                                                                      
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THE EVENTUAL            
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS FAR AS A WIDENING RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.             
IF INDEED THE LOW MOVES AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS PREDICT AND THE             
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FASTER...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD END UP                
FAIRLY DRY.  HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER POPS MONDAY AND               
TREND TOWARDS A DRIER PERIOD...HOWEVER WILL WAIT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT            
CHANGES UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OCCURS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.                                             
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS               
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING SURFACE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN             
HIGH PLAINS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NIETFELD/FOBERT                                                                 
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1044 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH               
OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM FLORIDA TO JUST OFFSHORE THE                    
CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR OVER                      
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
SFC ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE                    
DELMARVA COAST...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH              
WESTERN VA/NC INTO GA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC RANGED FROM THE              
MID 60S IN THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. 00Z RAOB                
ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AT 250MB...            
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER COASTAL NC/SC/GA              
AND NORTHERN FL (NOTE THE WIND DIRECTIONS AT GSO/MHX AND TAL/JAX                
RAOB SITES).                                                                    
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS              
SINCE DISSIPATED. THE ENHANCED PRECIP COVERAGE OBSERVED EARLIER THIS            
AFTERNOON AROUND THE TRIANGLE/FAY/RWI AREA WAS THE RESULT OF SEVERAL            
FACTORS. FIRST...PWAT VALUES WERE UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF               
YEAR...BETWEEN 1.50-2.00"...RESULTING IN SFC BASED CAPE VALUES IN               
THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE EVEN WITH PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS               
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. SECOND...A 250 MB SHORTWAVE RODE AROUND THE               
RIDGE (CENTERED IN MS/AL) STRAIGHT INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS                      
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SERVED AS THE PRIMARY CATALYST FOR SHOWER                  
DEVELOPMENT. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON RUC 250MB                       
HEIGHT/VORT FIELDS AS AN ELONGATED 20/S VORTMAX STRETCHING SOUTH                
FROM PA ALL THE WAY TO THE FL GULF COAST.                                       
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST                   
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AND CONTINUED                   
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WITH LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP IN                 
REGIONAL RADAR ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT TEMPS ARE NOW              
IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE BOARD AND GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW               
BARELY IF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY NOW               
THAT THE 250MB TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG/EAST OF CENTRAL NC...WOULD NOT              
BE TOO SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE.               
HAVE ADDED DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST            
OF HIGHWAY 1 (THIS INCLUDES THE TRIANGLE/FAY/RWI AREAS). MANY                   
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER THIS                
AFTERNOON...AND AS OF 02Z...MOST OB SITES HAD TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS             
LESS THAN 2F. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS WHETHER OR NOT A               
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN OR TRIANGLE              
IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE              
MID 60S (NW PIEDMONT) TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                     
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BUFFER SOUNDING DATA              
STILL INDICATES PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES... SO               
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK UPPER              
LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN                 
PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.                            
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD               
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS              
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... DRIER AIR MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO FILTER               
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE CAN EXPECT A DECREASE IN                 
CLOUDINESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REGION.                      
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 80S... WARMING TO THE MID 80S SUNDAY.               
LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 60S. -RHJ                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
EARLY EXTENDED WILL FEATURE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGING AS IT            
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD MONDAY AND                 
TUESDAY WITH VERY WARM THICKNESSES INDICATIVE OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS              
IN THE UPPER 80S.                                                               
THERE IS A LOT OF TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS               
THE RIDGING DAMPENS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST                   
WEDNESDAY. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND THE                  
MOISTURE ADVECTION NEARLY NON-EXISTENT...WORTHY OF SMALL CHANCE POPS            
AT BEST. THE ECMWF REALLY RACES THE FRONT THROUGH...WHILE THE GFS               
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.            
NO USE GETTING FANCY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ABOVE...IT LOOKS PRETTY            
DRY REGARDLESS OF THE FINE DETAILS. WILL STAY THE LINE WITH                     
SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN                
THE FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...THICKNESSES SUPPORT 75 TO              
80 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. -MLM                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE TAF FORECAST.               
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TO SEE EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG AT THE                   
TERMINAL SITES... WITH IFR AND LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KRDU... KFAY...             
AND KRWI AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT KGSO AND KINT. LOW               
STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON                 
ALLOWING ALL TAF SITES TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. HAVE INTRODUCED             
MVFR CEILINGS AT KRDU... KFAY... AND KRWI AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS                  
SHOWING AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL              
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY            
ONE.                                                                            
EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...OTHERWISE NO            
WIDESPREAD AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
LONG TERM...MLM                                                                 
AVIATION...RLH                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
920 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN PROBLEM DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT             
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND TH EOVERALL EXTENT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. SFC            
FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH A KROX-KFAR-KABR AXIS BY 00Z...WITH SOME               
WEAK CONVECTION STILL FORMING AHEAD OF IT INTO NRN MN. APPEARS THAT             
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ANCHORED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH CNTRL SD             
AND IS FORMING INTO ELEVATED ZONE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS            
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS NORTEASTWARD INTO              
ERN ND THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD                
INTO WRN MN DURING EARLY MORNING TO FORENOON PERIOD ON SUNDAY.                  
TIMING OF GFS HAS BEEN BEST SO FAR...THOUGH DRIER NAM AND RUC ARE               
FARING BETTER ON QPF.                                                           
THREAT FOR SEVERE WX HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL               
AND WITH MOST CONVECTION IN ELEVATED ZONE. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR             
SOME ISOLATED LARGER HAIL IN THE MIX OVERNIGHT.                                 
OVERALL...DEEP 500MB TROF OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT              
INTO THE WRN DKTAS FOR SUNDAY. THEN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO            
WRN ONT BY LATE ON MONDAY. THIS KEEP THE FGF CWA IN A GENERALLY DAMP            
AND COOL PATTERN FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.                                     
.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...                                                         
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL LIKE                
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. BY THURSDAY...A LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN             
CANADA AND RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL SET UP AND BRING A SLIGHT            
CHANCE OF POPS TO THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES KEEP THE PRECIP MAINLY NORTH           
OF THE BORDER...HOWEVER PREVIOUS 12Z RUN BROUGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE              
FORECAST AREA. STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE MODEL             
RUNS SO WENT WITH 18 POPS FOR NOW. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE              
FAIRLY DRY WITH SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT               
AND MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON                 
ACROSS NCNTRL MN. MVFR VSBYS WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH -RA AND             
ISOLD -TSRA ACTIVITY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUST/HOPKINS                                                                    
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL                      
TONIGHT. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT EARLY ON WHILE THERE                    
CONTINUES TO BE MORE DISAGREEMENT AFTER ABOUT 42 HOURS (06Z MON).               
WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM                
FORECAST.                                                                       
TONIGHT...RUC DID A FAIR JOB ON NAILING TEMPS AND THE CLEARING                  
LINE TODAY. KFAR SEEMS TO BE THE HOT SPOT IN THE FA AT 84F AT 2                 
PM (RECORD TODAY IS 90F). MEANWHILE...TEMPS UP BY ROLLA...CANDO AND             
LANGDON ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SFC WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM              
WEST OF KABR (SD) TO NEAR ADA (MN) TO NORTH OF KPKD (MN). SOMEWHAT              
OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS UP INTO THE NORTHERN RED                 
RIVER VALLEY WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH WEST OF KJMS NORTHWEST                
TOWARD KMOT. BY 00Z SUN...LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE               
TO LIFT NORTH...WHILE THE NORTHERN VALLEY INVERTED TROUGH HOLDS IN              
PLACE. THRU 06Z THE FRONT MAY EITHER BECOME STATIONARY OR BECOME                
A COLD FRONT AND SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. WITH THE UPPER FLOW               
NEARLY PARALLELING THE SFC BOUNDARY THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH                    
EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT. THAT WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY DRAPED                
OVER OUR FA FOR ALL OF TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE 12Z               
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE EVEN TOO FAST TRYING TO MOVE THIS BOUNDARY               
EAST TONIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE                     
BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. EASTERN AREAS WILL              
ALSO HAVE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS WITH NOT AS MUCH FORCING AS AREAS              
ALONG OR BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. MAIN INGREDIENT MISSING FOR GOOD              
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL TONIGHT IS LIFT. SINCE UPPER FLOW PARALLELS               
THE SFC BOUNDARY...IT IS NOT A GOOD STRONG COLD FRONT. UPPER JET                
STAYS WELL BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY AS WELL AND THE LOW LEVEL JET                
APPEARS TO FOCUS EAST OF THE FA AREA TONIGHT. NOT SAYING THERE                  
WILL NOT BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...BUT ALL THE COMPONENTS                 
ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER. WILL HIT HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES BEHIND THE               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. GFS HAS A BIG BULLSEYE OF QPF BY 12Z                  
SUN...BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE...UNLESS A GOOD TSTM COMPLEX CAN               
GET GOING.                                                                      
SUN/SUN NIGHT...SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND              
WILL TAKE PCPN CHANCES WITH IT. THEREFORE SCALED BACK PCPN                      
CHANCES IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN AND MUCH COOLER                 
TEMPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE              
NAM MUCH DRIER AND FASTER WITH THE 500MB SYSTEM. GFS TRIES TO                   
BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN TO WEST CENTRAL MN. HARD TO HAVE                 
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION...AS THE NAM AND GFS LOOK 180                
DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY SHOWED YESTERDAY. WILL KEEP SOME               
LOW PCPN CHANCES...ANY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST FA.                              
MON/TUE...AGAIN...DEALING WITH WHAT MODEL TO FOLLOW DURING THIS                 
TIME PERIOD. CANADIAN MODEL LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS (MORE PCPN)                 
AND THE UKMET LOOKS MORE LIKE THE NAM (LESS PCPN). WILL MAINTAIN                
PCPN CHANCES LIKE CONTINUITY...BUT DECREASE THEM JUST A BIT. WILL               
SEE IF THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR LATER FORECASTS.                     
.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...                                                         
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL LIKE                
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. BY THURSDAY...A LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN             
CANADA AND RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL SET UP AND BRING A SLIGHT            
CHANCE OF POPS TO THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES KEEP THE PRECIP MAINLY NORTH           
OF THE BORDER...HOWEVER PREVIOUS 12Z RUN BROUGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE              
FORECAST AREA. STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE MODEL             
RUNS SO WENT WITH 18 POPS FOR NOW. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE              
FAIRLY DRY WITH SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.           
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH MOST                
ASSOCIATED PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.                
EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...           
WITH LOWER CIGS EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FURTHER EAST AT              
BEMIDJI.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GODON/SPEICHER                                                                  
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
754 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND              
BUT BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP                
CLOSED UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH IT WILL COME              
A CHANGE FROM SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS TO MORE TYPICAL FALL-LIKE                  
WEATHER.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                                  
UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND                   
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE               
UPPER 60S THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MOST UNSTABLE AIR SHOWN BY SATELLITE                
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE REACHED FIRST.                  
CAPES FORECAST ON NAM12 500 TO 1000 J/KG. RUC ALSO SHOWED THE                   
DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE LATE THIS                     
EVENING. WILL COVER ALL THIS WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR THE EVENING.                 
GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASINGLY LONG OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL              
ADD AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AS WELL. OTHERWISE NAM AND GFS                 
SHOWS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE                       
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. BOTH MODELS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TEMPS AND RH              
SUGGEST IT GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT CONVINCINGLY MOVE INTO THE AREA              
BEFORE LIFTING ENE ON SUNDAY. WILL BRING IN LOW CHC POPS FOR                    
SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OH TO COVER THIS                 
APCHG BOUNRARY. CAPE DEVELOPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WITH UPPER HIGH               
OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA BY BOTH GFS AND                
NAM WILL LEAVE POPS OUT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                              
UPPER HIGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A                
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT               
SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WILL BRING IN THUNDER                      
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
BIG CHANGE BEGINS TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE                      
NORTHWEST. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH              
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT SELF DESTRUCT SUN AT BEST WITH                    
MOSTLY CLOUDY THE MOST LIKELY SKY CONDITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE                 
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE                   
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE...BUT A FEW                
POPCORN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON RADAR FROM NORTHERN OHIO                 
BACK INTO IND WHERE ON SATELLITE ENHANCED CUMULUS ARE VISIBLE.                  
LEFT ALL TAF SITES DRY ALTHOUGH NOTE THAT THOSE RANDOM SHOWERS ARE              
DEVELOPING AND A TS IS POSSIBLE TOO...CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.                     
OTHERWISE ALL OF THIS TO WRAP UP BY EARLY EVE AS THE WINDOW OF                  
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TYPE OF AFTN SHRA/TS IS GETTING SMALLER...IN               
OCT. LAKE BREEZE TO RELAX BY EVE TOO.                                           
SPEAKING OF OCTOBER...DEWPOINTS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH AND THAT                  
BRINGS OUT THE CONCERN FOR FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT. MVFR IS A                 
GIVEN. GUIDANCE IS COMING UP WITH VSBYS LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE                 
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE WEST. THINK TOL/FDY COULD BE THE WORST               
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS. BROUGHT THEM DOWN                
TO IFR. EASTERN SITES WILL BE DEALING WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT                
WHICH SHOULD BRING IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AND AN              
ATTEMPT AT A WIND SHIFT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST/SW THE FRONT                  
MAKES IT.                                                                       
UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY. DAYBREAK BR/FG STILL                  
POSSIBLE UNTIL WE GET RID OF THIS AIRMASS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED                  
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WEATHER THAT RESEMBLES THIS TIME OF               
YEAR. THE UPPER LOW SWINGS RIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES KEEPING               
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THURSDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. GRADIENT IS LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT                
AND WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HIGH (70F AT TOL LAST                 
HOUR!) FOG AND HAZE WILL DEVELOP. AREAS THAT DECOUPLE (TOL FDY AND              
MAYBE MFD) SHOULD RADIATE WELL AND VSBY WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR                 
TOWARD DAYBREAK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DROP TO THE EAST                
END OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ERIE               
BUT ODDS FAVOR A DRY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS.              
NOT SURE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS ERIE ON               
SUNDAY. IT COULD. I HAVE A FEELING THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL STAY                   
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIE BUT AS PRESSURES RISE TO THE                      
NORTHEAST A WIND SHIFT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG THE LAKESHORE              
ANYWAY. WIND SHOULD COME AROUND MORE FROM THE NORTH NEAR LAKE ERIE              
AND WNW INLAND.                                                                 
MORNING FOG AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL STRONGER COLD FRONT COMES              
THROUGH. MODELS MORE IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH FROPA MONDAY                   
NIGHT OR TUE MORN. FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE BUT THERE WILL              
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTORM. TROUGH ALOFT PROGGED                
TO DEEPEN OVER GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEK AND WHILE DRIER AIR                  
WILL FILTER BACK IN DURING MID WEEK IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE               
UNSTABLE AND WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK              
ESPECIALLY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WITH A GENERAL NNW FLOW.                         
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TK                                                                   
NEAR TERM...TK                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TK                                                                 
LONG TERM...TK                                                                  
AVIATION...KOSARIK                                                              
MARINE...OUDEMAN                                                                
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
157 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE               
THE WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS FOR THE FIRST               
HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.                
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND                
DAILY/MORNING STRATUS/FOG WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST. NO                         
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN EXISTS IN CENTRAL PA UNTIL TUES OR                  
WED.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
RADIATIONAL COOLING...COMBINED WITH MOIST SE FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW                
STRATUS DECK OVER NEW JERSEY/DELAWARE TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.             
LATEST RUC BYR RH DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT TO THE                  
SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS OF PA. WILL ALSO ADD FOG TO THE FCST BTWN 08Z-               
14Z...MUCH AS OCCURRED EARLIER TDY. FOR MINS...TOOK THIS MORNING/S              
LOWS AND ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY BASED ON SREF 2METER TEMP PLUMES.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                        
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...STARTING OUT WITH PATCHY LOW                  
CLOUDS/FOG...MAINLY IN THE EAST...FOLLOWED BY MSUNNY AND VERY WARM              
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL 850 TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME AS                 
TODAY...SO HAVE COPIED TODAY/S HIGHS INTO TOMORROW/S GRIDS. LOW TO              
MIDDLE 80S WILL BE SEEN BY MANY WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 80S                    
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A STRETCH                  
GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ANOTHER CLEAR START AND CLOUDY END...AS LOW               
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SRLY. TEMPS STAY MILD.                                       
590 DM HIGH AT 500 MB WILL HOLD TOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE                       
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL AN UPPER TROF/STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST          
INTO THE RIDGE SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...A TROUGH AXIS CENTERED          
FROM CENTRAL ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL STEER SYSTEMS                 
NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD 15 TO 20                
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK UNTIL               
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM BRINGS CLOUDS...RAIN AND COOLER                 
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS STAND TO                
BE TIED OR BROKEN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE.                  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP LOW                   
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC DEWPOINTS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS WELL.                  
THIS WILL KEEP IT HUMID WITH MUGGY NIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL                      
NIGHTTIME MINIMUM TEMPS. DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...KEPT VERY LOW POPS          
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.                            
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING AN UPPER TROF/CLOSED               
LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK AND AT LEAST TEMPORARILY                   
BREAKING DOWN THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS TROF WILL                      
SUPPORT THE ABOVE MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF                  
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN WESTERN                       
SECTIONS ON TUESDAY. WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS FOR WED AND                      
THURSDAY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME RANGE ALOT CAN CHANGE... ESPECIALLY              
IF THE MOTIONS IS SLOWER THEN FORECAST...AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE               
TYPES OF SYSTEMS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
WHEN I WORKED LAST NIGHT...I THOUGHT FOG WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD               
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER ON THU...SO FOG                
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED STILL. HOWEVER...SOME FOG AT BFD.                           
THE OTHER PROBLEM IS LOWER SC ACROSS SE PA. EXPECT THIS TO REACH                
MDT IN A FEW MORE HOURS.                                                        
OTHERWISE...MOST OF TODAY WILL BE VFR AFTER MID MORNING.                        
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL               
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.              
SOME CLDS NOW AND THEN...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT LESS IN                 
THE WAY OF FOG AFTER THIS MORNING...AS WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE               
S-SW.                                                                           
STILL HAVE TO WATCH BACKDOOR FRONT THIS WEEKEND...INTO EARLY NEXT               
WEEK...BUT THINK THIS WILL STAY MAINLY STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA.                   
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO                                                              
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD                                                          
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER                                                     
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN                                                        
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1232 AM MDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF                 
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN WYOMING MOVING              
SLOWLY EAST...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH                 
MID MORNING. 00Z NAM/03Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORT DENSE FOG THROUGH                
16Z. FORECAST UPDATED FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIFR VIS/CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST             
WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 16Z...WITH A GRADUAL                       
IMPROVEMENT AFTERWARD. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO               
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR BUTTE-CUSTER           
     CO PLAINS-HAAKON-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-NORTHERN FOOT                  
     HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-               
     RAPID CITY-SHANNON-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-                               
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-ZIEBACH.                                       
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN           
     CROOK.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
809 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 8 PM FOR THE NORTHEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OK             
PANHANDLE. WILL UPDATE ZONES AND CLEAN UP WORDING REGARDING WINDS.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WELL INTO EVENING HOURS AS A TROUGH REMAINS                 
STATIONED IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MIDDLE DECK OF CLOUDS              
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT            
WILL PULL UP NEAR STATIONARY IN THE OK PANHANDLE AROUND MIDDAY...               
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT GUY AND DHT.              
WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AT GUY AND DHT.                  
FRONTAL EFFECTS WILL BE DELAYED AT AMA TILL LATER IN THE DAY. CB                
NOTED AT ALL POINTS LATE SUNDAY.                                                
WYNNE                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SURFACE TROUGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ACT AS A FOCUS              
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. INSERTED SOME LOW               
POPS FOR THE ISOLATED STORMS AND KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING THROUGH           
01Z FOR THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH           
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TOMORROW. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSH INTO THE           
NORTHERN PANHANDLES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL OUT                 
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE                
TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. SO HIGH TEMP GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM             
THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST CWA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN            
TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ONCE AGAIN SLOWED THE UPPER               
TROUGH WITH THE GFS EVEN INDICATING A DRY SLOT POTENTIAL AND LIMITED            
PRECIP. HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WET OVER THE PAST             
FEW DAYS...AND THE NAM 12 STILL PAINTS PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
MONDAY MORNING...SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS. ALSO PUSHED            
POPS BACK THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. RUC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY                 
STRONGER UPPER JET ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SO WAS NOT                  
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP CHANCES AFTER 12Z MONDAY  AS THE UPPER TROUGH               
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE STEADILY EAST. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM 12 DOES            
PAINT SOME PRECIP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL             
BE COOLER THAN RECENT CLIMO WITH NORTHERLY LL FLOW VEERING TO AN                
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN             
BY TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES. WARMER AIR WILL            
ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 80S.            
A SECOND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.             
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS KEPT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY...BUT THE LATEST GFS           
IS NOW SUGGESTING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN CWA. GFS ALSO           
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND OVER           
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER               
SHORT WAVE BUT PAINTS PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. SO DECIDED TO            
INSERT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL INCREASE IF MODEL            
CONSISTENCY BECOME EVIDENT WITH FUTURE RUNS. NOW APPEARS THE RIDGE              
WILL HOLD UP OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SO HELD CLOSE            
TO GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE EXTENDED DRY.                                          
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/09                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
657 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WELL INTO EVENING HOURS AS A TROUGH REMAINS                 
STATIONED IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MIDDLE DECK OF CLOUDS              
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT            
WILL PULL UP NEAR STATIONARY IN THE OK PANHANDLE AROUND MIDDAY...               
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT GUY AND DHT.              
WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AT GUY AND DHT.                  
FRONTAL EFFECTS WILL BE DELAYED AT AMA TILL LATER IN THE DAY. CB                
NOTED AT ALL POINTS LATE SUNDAY.                                                
WYNNE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SURFACE TROUGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ACT AS A FOCUS              
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. INSERTED SOME LOW               
POPS FOR THE ISOLATED STORMS AND KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING THROUGH           
01Z FOR THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH           
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TOMORROW. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSH INTO THE           
NORTHERN PANHANDLES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL OUT                 
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE                
TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. SO HIGH TEMP GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM             
THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST CWA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN            
TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ONCE AGAIN SLOWED THE UPPER               
TROUGH WITH THE GFS EVEN INDICATING A DRY SLOT POTENTIAL AND LIMITED            
PRECIP. HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WET OVER THE PAST             
FEW DAYS...AND THE NAM 12 STILL PAINTS PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
MONDAY MORNING...SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS. ALSO PUSHED            
POPS BACK THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. RUC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY                 
STRONGER UPPER JET ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SO WAS NOT                  
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP CHANCES AFTER 12Z MONDAY  AS THE UPPER TROUGH               
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE STEADILY EAST. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM 12 DOES            
PAINT SOME PRECIP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL             
BE COOLER THAN RECENT CLIMO WITH NORTHERLY LL FLOW VEERING TO AN                
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN             
BY TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES. WARMER AIR WILL            
ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 80S.            
A SECOND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.             
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS KEPT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY...BUT THE LATEST GFS           
IS NOW SUGGESTING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN CWA. GFS ALSO           
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND OVER           
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER               
SHORT WAVE BUT PAINTS PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. SO DECIDED TO            
INSERT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL INCREASE IF MODEL            
CONSISTENCY BECOME EVIDENT WITH FUTURE RUNS. NOW APPEARS THE RIDGE              
WILL HOLD UP OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SO HELD CLOSE            
TO GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE EXTENDED DRY.                                          
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.                                                   
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/09                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
351 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE TROUGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ACT AS A FOCUS              
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. INSERTED SOME LOW               
POPS FOR THE ISOLATED STORMS AND KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING THROUGH           
01Z FOR THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH           
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TOMORROW. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSH INTO THE           
NORTHERN PANHANDLES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL OUT                 
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE                
TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. SO HIGH TEMP GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM             
THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST CWA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN            
TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ONCE AGAIN SLOWED THE UPPER               
TROUGH WITH THE GFS EVEN INDICATING A DRY SLOT POTENTIAL AND LIMITED            
PRECIP. HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WET OVER THE PAST             
FEW DAYS...AND THE NAM 12 STILL PAINTS PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
MONDAY MORNING...SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS. ALSO PUSHED            
POPS BACK THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. RUC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY                 
STRONGER UPPER JET ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SO WAS NOT                  
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP CHANCES AFTER 12Z MONDAY  AS THE UPPER TROUGH               
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE STEADILY EAST. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM 12 DOES            
PAINT SOME PRECIP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL             
BE COOLER THAN RECENT CLIMO WITH NORTHERLY LL FLOW VEERING TO AN                
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN             
BY TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES. WARMER AIR WILL            
ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 80S.            
A SECOND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.             
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS KEPT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY...BUT THE LATEST GFS           
IS NOW SUGGESTING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN CWA. GFS ALSO           
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND OVER           
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER               
SHORT WAVE BUT PAINTS PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. SO DECIDED TO            
INSERT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL INCREASE IF MODEL            
CONSISTENCY BECOME EVIDENT WITH FUTURE RUNS. NOW APPEARS THE RIDGE              
WILL HOLD UP OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SO HELD CLOSE            
TO GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE EXTENDED DRY.                                          
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                61  87  50  77  50 /  10  20  40  10   0             
BEAVER OK                  66  81  51  73  46 /  10  30  40  10   0             
BOISE CITY OK              54  68  44  72  45 /  10  20  20  10   0             
BORGER TX                  67  85  53  78  53 /  10  30  40  10   0             
BOYS RANCH TX              61  88  50  79  50 /  10  20  40  10   0             
CANYON TX                  60  90  50  78  48 /  10  20  40  10   0             
CLARENDON TX               64  86  55  78  54 /  10  20  40  10   0             
DALHART TX                 55  77  44  76  45 /  10  20  30  10   0             
GUYMON OK                  61  75  48  72  48 /  10  30  40  10   0             
HEREFORD TX                60  89  47  76  46 /  10  20  40  10   0             
LIPSCOMB TX                68  84  52  75  46 /  10  30  40  10   0             
PAMPA TX                   66  81  52  74  54 /  10  30  40  10   0             
SHAMROCK TX                67  86  56  80  53 /  10  30  40  10   0             
WELLINGTON TX              67  89  58  81  55 /  10  20  40  10   0             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.                                                   
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
311 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS SHARP DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN US WITH                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS               
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND              
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.                         
UPPER JET APPEARS TO HAVE ROUNDED BASE OF UPPER TROF...SO MODEL                 
TRENDS IN FINALLY MOVING IS SLOWLY EAST SHOULD BEGIN.                           
SURFACE TO 850 MB IS MORE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE                  
MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THIS SEEN IN CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN             
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LITTLE CAP...BUT RATHER DRY MID LAYERS WITH              
MODERATE CU DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR                 
LAKE BREEZE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.                                              
LACK OF A TRIGGER STILL BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY...AS          
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY.                                                             
STILL CONCERN FOR MORE FOG WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS COMING                    
ACROSS THE COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. MODIS STILL SHOWING                     
SHORELINE AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SOME MID 50S JUST TO THE                  
EAST. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MUCH OF THE FOG/STRATUS OFF SHORE HAS               
DIMINISHED...BUT WAS STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF MILWAUKEE TO NEAR                 
SHEBOYGAN...BUT NOT AS THICK AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LAKE FOG TO                   
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADIENT PREVENTS MUCH INLAND PENETRATION.              
WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS               
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT                                               
GFS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. CRAS                      
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTH. THIS SEEMS MORE                   
REASONABLE THAN UPPER LOW GETTING CAUGHT IN MORE NORTH JET.                     
AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ADVANCING TROF/UPPER LOW                    
SHOULD MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT NOW MAY MOVE OFF TO                
THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CUT OFF SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS               
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.                                                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WITH GFS MORE IN LINE WITH PROGRESSIVE ECMWF...IT NOW APPEARS                   
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE DRY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WARM SECTOR TO DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY. VFR CU FIELD WILL              
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR FOG/HAZE                  
TNGT/ERLY SUN. LEADING EDGE OF THICKER FOG/STRATUS NOTED 5-10 MILES             
OFFSHORE OF MKE COUNTY. SOME PUSH WNW NOTED...ESP TOWARDS NRN                   
MKE AND OZA COUNTY...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF.                          
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HENTZ/COLLAR                                                                    
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TITLE FOR AVIATION SECTION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
600 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN US WITH                   
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE LAKE               
SUPERIOR REGION. IN RESPONSE...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO                 
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                   
SURFACE AND 850 MB FLOW HAS BECOME MORE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN                
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS SEEN IN CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN                     
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED                  
NORTH WITH WEAK VORT MAX.                                                       
LACK OF A TRIGGER WILL BE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR SATURDAY AND                        
SUNDAY...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG WITH DECENT                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,                                                             
WARM AND MOIST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH                     
REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. CONCERN IS THERE FOR FOG WITH THE                     
HIGHER DEW POINTS COMING ACROSS THE COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS.                
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FOG/STRATUS OFF SHORE NORTH OF                            
MILWAUKEE...AND FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.             
WILL MENTION AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE FORECAST AREA BOTH LATE               
TONIGHT AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                
ECMWF NO LONGER IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS. GFS SLOWER WITH UPPER LOW.               
EITHER WAY THINGS LOOK UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY INTO MAYBE THURSDAY                
MORNING AS CUT OFF SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT                 
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
AS UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...A NORTHERN                   
STREAM TROUGH CATCHES UP TO IT...AND PULLS UPPER LOW BACK TOWARDS               
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS NOW MORE                         
PROGRESSIVE. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR NOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WARM AND MOIST SLY FLOW CONTINUES RIGHT INTO SATURDAY.                          
ISOLD CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE LOSS OF HEATING. MOS OVER              
FORECAST FOG LAST NIGHT AND ALL SOLUTIONS ARE TAKING IT WAY DOWN                
AGAIN TNGT. WILL NOT BUY INTO IT ATTM. LEANING TOWARDS GOING WITH               
JUST MVFR FOG WITH ENUF LOW LEVEL STIRRING AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF               
WIND JUST OFF THE DECK TO INHIBIT DENSE FOG. LAKE CONTRIBUTION OF               
MOIST/LLVL RH NOT ANTICIPATED.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HENTZ                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
225 AM MDT SUN OCT 7 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION                 
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COOL DOES IT GET TODAY...HOW COLD ARE THE                 
MINS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...AND HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM UP ON MONDAY AND           
TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC                  
THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. UPPER SYSTEM OVER WYOMING MOVING STEADILY                
NORTHEAST AS STRONG RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WYOMING SYSTEM                 
HAS SLOWED A LITTLE DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING                     
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF IT. STRONG RIDGING IS BEING HELPED BY NEXT           
STRONG SYSTEM MOVING AND DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG COLD           
FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. AIR MASS              
DRIES OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.                                             
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS LOOK REASONABLY INITIALIZED. AT MID LEVELS...             
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN BRINGING IN THE RIDGING BEHIND THE               
EXITING NORTHERN SYSTEM. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THAT             
THE GFS HAS THE BEST POSITION OF THE WYOMING SYSTEM AND HAS THE                 
STRENGTH THE BEST. THE GFS IS ALSO DOING BETTER ON THE SOUTHERN                 
PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO UTAH AND COLORADO. GFS WAS              
DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE ECWMF FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET.                     
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS WERE STILL SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE ON THE                   
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW.                                                      
AT LOW LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER ON 850 MB                     
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NAM AND RUC WERE DOING WELL WITH             
THE FRONTAL POSITION. WILL CHOSE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FAVORING THE             
GFS A LITTLE MORE WITH MID AND UPPER LIFT BUT BLENDING IN SOME                  
UKMET. WILL USE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE ON THE WINDS AND THE GFS/UKMET            
ON THE TEMPERATURES.                                                            
TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY. VERY MOIST               
AIR IN PLACE THROUGH 700 MB OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST            
AREA. LATEST RUC SHOWED THAT DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION RIGHT ON THE EAST           
AND SOUTHEAST FRINGE AND THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THIS            
LINE QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA BY 15Z. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS                
HAVE ONLY INITIATED IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST                    
AREA. NAM/GFS GENERATE SOME STORMS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH                 
BELIEVE WILL HAPPEN. FRONT IS COMING THROUGH FAIRLY FAST. NAM/RUC               
HAVE THE FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AT 12Z. AND              
BASED ON THAT COMPARED WITH REALITY...BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE THIS              
MORNING WILL BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF MY AREA. WILL HAVE A SHORT               
LIVED SLIGHT CHANCE ON MY EASTERN FRINGES THIS MORNING.                         
QUESTION THEN BE IF AND WHEN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE                  
FRONT. DECENT LIFT ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS            
AFTERNOON AND REALLY GETTING IT ACT TOGETHER THIS EVENING. AIR MASS             
DRIES OUT PRETTY GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST HALF WITH THE SOUTHERN AND               
EASTERN AREAS HAVING THE BEST MOISTURE. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE                   
MODELS YESTERDAY AS WELL. SO LAYED OUT THIS EVENINGS POPS IN THAT               
MANNER. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER FOR A LITTLE BIT AFTER 06Z BUT                 
SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z.                                            
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND A WHILE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BETWEEN             
CLOUDS AND DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL DAY               
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE. 2 METER GUIDANCE SHOWING VERY LITTLE                  
RISE EVERYPLACE...ESPECIALLY AT HILL CITY WHICH STAYS STEADY OR                 
SLOWLY FALLS ALL DAY LONG. WILL SHOOT FOR BELOW GUIDANCE.                       
HOW MUCH CLOUD CLOVER AROUND WILL DETERMINE THE MINS. THE NAM HOLDS             
ONTO MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...PLAN ON GOING CLOSER TO            
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.                                                            
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...LOOK TO HAVE PLENTY OF SUN THE WHOLE DAY DUE              
TO RIDGING ALOFT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS...MAINLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE           
OF THE DAY. PLAN ON GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. NEXT                 
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR DO MINS DROP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LOW                
DEWPOINTS...AND LITTLE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS NIGHT WILL HAVE TO            
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. AGAIN PLAN ON GOING CLOSER TO THE COOLER                    
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A LOT OF SUN WITH                   
RIDGING ALOFT. WINDS START OUT LIGHT DOWNSLOPE EARLY THEN SHIFT TO A            
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WHICH IS NOT THE BEST WARM UP...             
AND MOST LIKELY WILL BE BRING IN RECYCLED COOL AIR. MAV LOOKS A                 
LITTLE WARM AND WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW IT.                                      
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS AROUND                   
3000 TO 6000 FT. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY           
00Z TONIGHT. KMCK WILL SEE -TSRA BEFORE 18Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF               
MVFR UNDER THESE THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH KGLD AND KMCK MAY SEE -SHRA IN             
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WRAPPING UP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                 
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER/KJ                                                                       
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
300 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007                                                       
...RECORDS SET FOR WARMTH ON SATURDAY...                                        
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 91               
SET IN 1993.  AND A NEW OCTOBER HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT NORTH            
PLATTE AIRPORT...69 DEGREES AT MIDNIGHT PRIOR TO COLD FRONT/S                   
ARRIVAL...                                                                      
...MAIN FOCUS FOCUS CLOUDS AND PCPN TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY            
AND MONDAY NIGHT..                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...                                                       
COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT             
LOW CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE FILLED IN. WINDS MUCH BELOW                 
YESTERDAY/S VALUES...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SATURDAY/S WIND GUSTS              
SEE OMAPNSLBF.                                                                  
NAM QUICKER THAN GFS IN PUSHING THE MOISTURE EAST BUT BOTH SIMILAR IN           
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTION NOT AS                      
WIDESPREAD AS SHOWN IN MODELS BUT HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE            
PAST HOUR. LATEST RUC SHOWS THE PCPN SLIPPING EAST OF LBF CWA JUST              
AFTER 12Z. THE RUC SOLUTION IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCALLY RUN              
WORKSTATION ETA WHICH SHOWS PCPN MOVING EAST JUST AFTER 12Z AND THEN            
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE AREA.             
SO WILL HOLD WITH LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE ONEILL AREA AND JUST EAST              
OF BROKEN BOW. KEPT POPS IN BROADLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY GIVEN                 
CURRENT RADAR BUT TRIMMED THE WESTERN EDGE OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES            
DUE TO DECREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY.                                     
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GOING TO BE SHOCKINGLY COOLER...GOING FROM               
AROUND 90 TO AROUND 60.  850 TEMPERATURES GO FROM THE 20S TO AROUND             
10. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH AROUND 20 MPH AND MAKE            
FOR A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.                                                  
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER               
30S NEAR 40... WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  THERE IS                   
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE COLDER SO LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO WATCH.            
BELIEVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 30S AS THE SOURCE                 
REGION FOR THIS AIR WAS IN THE UPPER 30S LAST NIGHT AND DEW POINTS              
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THIS RANGE.  AFTER DISCUSSION THIS PAST               
WEEK... NO FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO SO LATE INTO             
THE SEASON. NORTH PLATTE IS ALREADY WELL PAST THE MEAN END OF                   
GROWING SEASON. HOWEVER THOSE WISHING TO CONTINUE FLOWERING AND                 
GARDEN PLANTS ONLY NEED KEEP THEM PROTECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT            
TO ENSURE THOSE TENDER PLANTS SURVIVE DEEP INTO MID OCTOBER.                    
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...                                                        
THE UPPER LOW BECOMES THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK            
AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND SWEEPS IN A COOL WET AIR             
MASS FOR THE NORTHEAST US.  THE RESULT FOR US IS RIDGING BUILDS IN              
OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND THIS AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK                  
CREATING RIDGING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL BRING             
A DRY PATTERN INTO MID OCTOBER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO                
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL                              
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA              
BY AROUND 12Z. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.              
SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS BUT THE ATMOSPHERE                 
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER FEATURES SUCH AS STRONG             
WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SFC AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.                          
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY A                
STRONG CAPPING MECHANISM. INDICATIONS ARE THIS CAP WILL LIKELY                  
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST THIS MORNING. THUS THE FCST IS FOR              
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83            
THROUGH 12Z.                                                                    
WEST OF THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH               
POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOPING AS COLD AIR STRATUS FORMS AND DISSIPATES             
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND SFC HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THE FCST IS FOR             
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY              
EVENING PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR. THIS FCST IS CONDITIONAL AND BASED             
ON THE ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT. IF THE FRONT IS FAR              
ENOUGH EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THIS              
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
NOTE...FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NO ADVISORY WILL             
BE ISSUED AS WE ARE WELL PAST THE END OF THE MEAN GROWING SEASON.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CDC/HIRSCH                                                                      
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT GUY AND DHT AHEAD OF TROUGH BUT SHOULD TAPER             
OFF AS TROUGH DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE                   
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PARK NEAR GUY/DHT DURING THE LATE MORNING          
HOURS BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE PANHANDLES UNTIL                
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN            
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT FINALLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE            
DAY. WITH THE TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN FOR AMA...JUST INCLUDED CB                 
REMARK FOR LATER SUNDAY.                                                        
WYNNE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 8 PM FOR THE NORTHEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OK             
PANHANDLE. WILL UPDATE ZONES AND CLEAN UP WORDING REGARDING WINDS.              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007/                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WELL INTO EVENING HOURS AS A TROUGH REMAINS                 
STATIONED IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MIDDLE DECK OF CLOUDS              
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT            
WILL PULL UP NEAR STATIONARY IN THE OK PANHANDLE AROUND MIDDAY...               
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT GUY AND DHT.              
WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AT GUY AND DHT.                  
FRONTAL EFFECTS WILL BE DELAYED AT AMA TILL LATER IN THE DAY. CB                
NOTED AT ALL POINTS LATE SUNDAY.                                                
WYNNE                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SURFACE TROUGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ACT AS A FOCUS              
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. INSERTED SOME LOW               
POPS FOR THE ISOLATED STORMS AND KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING THROUGH           
01Z FOR THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH           
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TOMORROW. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSH INTO THE           
NORTHERN PANHANDLES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL OUT                 
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE                
TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. SO HIGH TEMP GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM             
THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST CWA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN            
TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ONCE AGAIN SLOWED THE UPPER               
TROUGH WITH THE GFS EVEN INDICATING A DRY SLOT POTENTIAL AND LIMITED            
PRECIP. HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WET OVER THE PAST             
FEW DAYS...AND THE NAM 12 STILL PAINTS PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
MONDAY MORNING...SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS. ALSO PUSHED            
POPS BACK THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. RUC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY                 
STRONGER UPPER JET ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SO WAS NOT                  
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP CHANCES AFTER 12Z MONDAY  AS THE UPPER TROUGH               
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE STEADILY EAST. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM 12 DOES            
PAINT SOME PRECIP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL             
BE COOLER THAN RECENT CLIMO WITH NORTHERLY LL FLOW VEERING TO AN                
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN             
BY TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES. WARMER AIR WILL            
ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 80S.            
A SECOND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.             
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS KEPT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY...BUT THE LATEST GFS           
IS NOW SUGGESTING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN CWA. GFS ALSO           
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND OVER           
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER               
SHORT WAVE BUT PAINTS PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. SO DECIDED TO            
INSERT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL INCREASE IF MODEL            
CONSISTENCY BECOME EVIDENT WITH FUTURE RUNS. NOW APPEARS THE RIDGE              
WILL HOLD UP OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SO HELD CLOSE            
TO GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE EXTENDED DRY.                                          
JJB                                                                             
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
21/09                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
256 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.              
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN                   
ONTARIO SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING               
SHOW THAT THE RAIN IS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH              
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA.                                    
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER                
LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND HOW IT COMES OUT AND                 
CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...                       
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME IS INCREASING AND HAVE MADE                  
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BACK TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION.                         
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EMERGE OUT OF             
THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO                     
TONIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK                 
CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST OR SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE TURNING TO                 
THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS ANOTHER STRONG                    
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.                                   
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND THE RUC SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH                 
OVER EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING THAT IS GENERATING A LITTLE                    
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE GFS HAS RESOLVED THIS FEATURE BRINGING IT              
ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM                 
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK              
FORCING THIS MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED                      
ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON...THE                  
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DECENT...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE...          
LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRONT WITH THE GFS SHOWING              
WEAK TO MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000 TO 850 MB LAYER AND                  
THETA-E CONVERGENCE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRENDED              
POPS DOWN A LITTLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT DID MAINTAIN LIKELY               
ACROSS THE WEST WITH JUST LOW END CHANCE IN THE EAST.                           
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING THE              
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH IT. AS THE PUSH OF COLD AIR CATCHES UP TO                
THE FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE                 
AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALL INCREASE TO MODERATE OR STRONG IN                   
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS DOES NOT BRING THE BEST                  
FORCING INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z SO HAVE LOWERED POPS                      
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EVENING WITH JUST LIKELY IN THE WEST AND                  
LOW END CHANCE IN THE EAST. AFTER 06Z...MAINTAINED THE CATEGORICAL              
OUT WEST WITH HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST.                                  
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE                
UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500 TO 300 MB LAYER IS              
EXPECTED WITH THE GFS SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 40 PVU/S WHICH ALSO                  
RESULTS IN STRONG QG CONVERGENCE. WITH THE FRONT PUSHING EAST OF                
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...THE MLCAPE DROPS TO LESS THAN 250 J/KG                
SO ONLY INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE MORNING. DID MAINTAIN                 
THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING BUT SHIFTED THEM TO THE                 
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE STRONG PV ADVECTION/QG                    
CONVERGENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR MONDAY                      
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME WRAP AROUND                  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS.                    
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS              
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE               
AREA OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES                  
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTER              
MOUNTAIN WEST. CURRENT DATABASE IS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH                    
SATURDAY AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS AT THIS TIME.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF              
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF             
SHRA/TS INTO THE VICINITY BOTH KRST AND KLSE TAF SITES BY 17Z. IN               
ADDITION...WITH THE SHRA/TS ACTIVITY AROUND...BROKEN MVFR                       
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT. VISIBILITIES              
WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATE INTO MVFR              
CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING WITH SHRA/TS/BR.                                  
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...04                                                            
AVIATION...DAS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
945 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS CHANCES MOST OF FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED               
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EAST WHERE WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE              
IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT THOUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE TWEAKED TEMPS                
DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST AS WELL. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON                
TRACK.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
KAR                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007/                          
..RECORDS SET FOR WARMTH ON SATURDAY...                                         
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 91               
SET IN 1993.  AND A NEW OCTOBER HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT NORTH            
PLATTE AIRPORT...69 DEGREES AT MIDNIGHT PRIOR TO COLD FRONT/S                   
ARRIVAL...                                                                      
..MAIN FOCUS FOCUS CLOUDS AND PCPN TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY             
AND MONDAY NIGHT..                                                              
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...                                                        
COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT             
LOW CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE FILLED IN. WINDS MUCH BELOW                 
YESTERDAY/S VALUES...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SATURDAY/S WIND GUSTS              
SEE OMAPNSLBF.                                                                  
NAM QUICKER THAN GFS IN PUSHING THE MOISTURE EAST BUT BOTH SIMILAR IN           
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTION NOT AS                      
WIDESPREAD AS SHOWN IN MODELS BUT HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE            
PAST HOUR. LATEST RUC SHOWS THE PCPN SLIPPING EAST OF LBF CWA JUST              
AFTER 12Z. THE RUC SOLUTION IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCALLY RUN              
WORKSTATION ETA WHICH SHOWS PCPN MOVING EAST JUST AFTER 12Z AND THEN            
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE AREA.             
SO WILL HOLD WITH LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE ONEILL AREA AND JUST EAST              
OF BROKEN BOW. KEPT POPS IN BROADLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY GIVEN                 
CURRENT RADAR BUT TRIMMED THE WESTERN EDGE OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES            
DUE TO DECREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY.                                     
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GOING TO BE SHOCKINGLY COOLER...GOING FROM               
AROUND 90 TO AROUND 60.  850 TEMPERATURES GO FROM THE 20S TO AROUND             
10. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH AROUND 20 MPH AND MAKE            
FOR A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.                                                  
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER               
30S NEAR 40... WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  THERE IS                   
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE COLDER SO LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO WATCH.            
BELIEVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 30S AS THE SOURCE                 
REGION FOR THIS AIR WAS IN THE UPPER 30S LAST NIGHT AND DEW POINTS              
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THIS RANGE.  AFTER DISCUSSION THIS PAST               
WEEK... NO FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO SO LATE INTO             
THE SEASON. NORTH PLATTE IS ALREADY WELL PAST THE MEAN END OF                   
GROWING SEASON. HOWEVER THOSE WISHING TO CONTINUE FLOWERING AND                 
GARDEN PLANTS ONLY NEED KEEP THEM PROTECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT            
TO ENSURE THOSE TENDER PLANTS SURVIVE DEEP INTO MID OCTOBER.                    
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE UPPER LOW BECOMES THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK            
AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND SWEEPS IN A COOL WET AIR             
MASS FOR THE NORTHEAST US.  THE RESULT FOR US IS RIDGING BUILDS IN              
OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND THIS AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK                  
CREATING RIDGING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL BRING             
A DRY PATTERN INTO MID OCTOBER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO                
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED.                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL                              
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA              
BY AROUND 12Z. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.              
SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS BUT THE ATMOSPHERE                 
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER FEATURES SUCH AS STRONG             
WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SFC AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.                          
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY A                
STRONG CAPPING MECHANISM. INDICATIONS ARE THIS CAP WILL LIKELY                  
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST THIS MORNING. THUS THE FCST IS FOR              
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83            
THROUGH 12Z.                                                                    
WEST OF THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH               
POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOPING AS COLD AIR STRATUS FORMS AND DISSIPATES             
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND SFC HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THE FCST IS FOR             
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY              
EVENING PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR. THIS FCST IS CONDITIONAL AND BASED             
ON THE ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT. IF THE FRONT IS FAR              
ENOUGH EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THIS              
AREA.                                                                           
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
NOTE...FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NO ADVISORY WILL             
BE ISSUED AS WE ARE WELL PAST THE END OF THE MEAN GROWING SEASON.               
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
55/55                                                                           
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1024 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CURRENTLY WATCHING STORM IN SOUTHERN DEUEL COUNTY/BROOKINGS COUNTY              
MOVE TO THE NE. APPEARS TO BE FIRING ON NOSE OF ENHANCED 7H                     
THETA-E FORCING. ATTM REAMINS JUST BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT                  
CLOSE. 50DBZ TO 30.5KT AGL BUT NO REPORTS OTHER THAN HEAVY RAIN.                
FURTHER WEST...APPEARS THAT DRY AIR IS HELPING TO REDUCE PCPN                   
POTENTIAL...AND LATEST RUC/NAM12 SHOW THAT ANY PCPN WILL BE WEST                
OF OUR CWA...CLOSER TO UPPER LOW CENTER. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS                 
ACROSS THE WEST FOR TODAY...FOCUSING MORE ON THE FAR EAST. STILL                
LOOKS THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA FOR FAR EASTERN CWA                  
LATER THIS AFTN AS NEXT SHOT OF ENHANCED 7H THETA-E FORCING                     
ADVECTS IN.                                                                     
TEMP WISE...HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT ALL AREAS AS CLOUDS/PCPN              
POSE A PROBLEM IN REACHING FCSTD HIGHS. UPDATED ZONES SENT EARLIER              
TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED PCPN COVERAGE.                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH                
IN THE SHORT FORECAST ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND PCPN CHANCES              
THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN               
SOME SIX HOURS...REFLECTING SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX GRIDS.                  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS              
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE DAKOTAS BY MID                  
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
HAVE BEEN ON GOING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...STRETCHING SW                 
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS COINCIDES NICELY WITH UPPER LEVEL JET               
SUPPORT WHERE MAX WINDS ARE 100+KTS. A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST WEST OF              
THIS JET MAX...WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL WYOMING                 
TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS POSITION THE LOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH                 
DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING. SOME 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENSIS SETS UP IN              
EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MINNESOTA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY                 
MORNING. HAVE CATERER WX/POPS IN THAT AREA. MAIN PORTION OF THIS                
SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...LEAVING BEHIND LOW                  
CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREA OF THIS CWA.                                    
TEMP WISE...WILL SEE A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ONLY A               
FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS OF LOWER 50S. THE BIGGEST               
FALL WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT HAS NOT PASSED THROUGH YET.            
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
NOT MUCH GOING ON DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE MODELS AND                     
ENSEMBLES AGREE WELL THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE                 
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH               
PRESSURE AREA WILL EVER SO SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY                   
WHILE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OUT WEST. THUS...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY               
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL                
SLOWLY TURN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE. HIGHS AND LOWS                
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                 
WITH THE DRY AIR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT                  
COULD SEE SOME FROST EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE THE                  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CLOSE BY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 21Z...ALONG               
WITH SCT-OCNL -TSRA/-SHRA. MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF                 
THE STRONGEST STORMS. FURTHER WEST...EXPECT IFR CIGS TO LIFT TO                 
MVFR CATEGORY AFT 18Z...WITH LOW VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFT 00Z.                    
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.                              
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...SD                                                                 
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1012 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE MOST OF THE                   
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.                
WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGES AND RUC80 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATED                
A WEAK LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS LIFTING NORTHWARD. PRECIPITABLE               
WATER VALUES WERE BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST                   
TX. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS                
EAST TX TODAY AND EVEN THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE MORE                 
CONFLUENT THAN DIFFLUENT...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEEMS                     
BETTER THAN THE EASTERN PORTIONS. SO WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER                    
POPS EAST BUT RAISE POPS WEST. ALSO...WILL NEED TO LOWER MAX                    
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MAINLY WEST TODAY. 32                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007/                          
AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL                  
WATERS WITH ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVING INLAND. WE SHALL KEEP CB CLOUD              
GROUP FOR IAH/HOU SOUTHWARD WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS FOR FAST MOVING               
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NOTED CXO              
NORTHWARD WHERE THERE IS LESS VERTICAL MIXING AND NEARLY CALM                   
WINDS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH                
CONVECTION TAPERING DOWN. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO               
INCREASE AGAIN BY MID DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. 37                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007/                           
KHGX RADAR SHOWS GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM                                
HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS                
HOUR. GOES PLOT SHOWS PWS OF 1.8-2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH VALUES OF ONLY 1.4-1.6 INCHES WESTERN                    
THIRD. THIS MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA                  
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SWATH OF HIGH PWS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST                  
MONDAY. LOW AT 300 MB EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN              
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARDS                 
THE AREA RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIFFLUENCE                           
TODAY/MONDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIS OF -4 TO -6...NO                
CAP...AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY/MONDAY.                  
EXPECTING GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA BOTH DAYS ACROSS CWA.                      
CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DEVELOPING OVER WATERS AND                
COASTAL ZONES IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...SPREADING                   
INLAND BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD BE                 
EAST OF I-45 AND HAVE BLANKETED LIKELY POPS OVER THIS AREA.                     
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH...WITH                
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BOTH TODAY/MONDAY. SOME BRIEF                  
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.                             
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS                    
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS                   
COMING WEEK. UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER SE TX AT THE SAME                   
TIME WHICH WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO SLOW AND BECOME MORE                      
DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX TUESDAY. CAPPING REMAINS WEAK...FLOW             
ALOFT DIFFLUENT...AND PWS LINGER AROUND 1.8-2.0 INCHES AREAWIDE                 
TUESDAY. HAVE BLANKETED 40 POPS ACROSS CWA. EXPECTING FRONT TO                  
INITIALLY STALL NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.                 
FINALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY FRONT GETS SHOVED OFFSHORE AND CWA                   
DRIES OUT AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE                  
AREA. HAVE KEPT 20-30 POPS GOING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY...               
BUT KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SE                
TX FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER                  
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER              
RIDGE GETS ERODED DURING THIS TIME SO DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD COOL                 
DOWN AS WELL. YES IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE              
SHOULD HAVE SOME ACTUAL FALL WEATHER.                                           
35                                                                              
MARINE...                                                                       
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A               
PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE             
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEGINNING LATE                
TONIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. MODELS            
INDICATE A PERSISTENT AND LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER YUCATAN               
PENINSULA THIS COMING WEEK. THIS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR                  
REGION.  37                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  73  91  73  89 /  50  30  50  30  40             
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  74  90  74  89 /  40  30  50  30  40             
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  88  78  88 /  40  30  40  30  40             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...32                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...43                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1011 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AFTER FIRST LOOK AT 07.12 RUC/WRF AND VARIOUS OTHER HI-RES WRF                  
RUNS...GOING FORECAST LARGELY IN FINE SHAPE FOR THIS AFTN INTO                  
TONIGHT. GOES WATER VAPOR/RAOBS SHOWING DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER                   
TROUGH OVER WYOMING AWAITING LAST BOUT OF ENERGY IN BASE OF TROUGH              
OVER CO/NM TO EJECT NORTHEAST AROUND ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER INDIANA               
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS TO 592DM. THIS SHOULD SWING ENTIRE CLOSED                    
SYSTEM INTO MN ON MON AS IT DEEPENS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED              
FROM INTL FALLS TO SIOUX FALLS TO LINCOLN WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE                 
THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING...MAYBE ABOUT 100NM DUE TO WEAK HEIGHT                
FALLS /10-30M ON 12Z RAOBS/ ON LEADING EDGE OF CLOSED SYSTEM AS IT              
AWAITS SWRN CONUS ENERGY. AS HAS BEEN WELL                                      
ADVERTISED...ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES               
IN PLACE AND TO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH PWAT ON LATEST                         
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES TO APPROACH 4.0 STANDARD                   
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL /2.0 INCHES -- CONFIRMED ON SRN PLAINS                  
RAOBS/. THIS VERY MOIST FLOW AND VERY WEAK ENERGY IN SWLY FLOW                  
ALOFT TO CONTINUE TO IGNITE BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH                     
AFTN/EVENING...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING RATHER ANEMIC AND                     
LOOSELY ORGANIZED. FRONTAL FORCING /FN CONVERGENCE/ WELL WEST OF                
AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SO BANDS OF RAIN/STORMS EXPECTED TO BE                 
RATHER NEBULOUS AND ERRATIC IN DEVELOPMENT/LONGEVITY. PLENTY OF                 
INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR -- ALREADY 400 J/KG                  
MLCAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1250 J/KG BY AFTN -- SO EXPECT A                 
GRADUAL UPTICK IN RAINFALL RATES/STORM INTENSITY THROUGH AFTN. NO               
DEEP SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...BUT STILL EXPECT A MID/LATE AFTN STORM TO              
BE STRONG IF POCKET OF HIGHER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH A LOW END               
WIND THREAT. THIS COVERED VERY WELL BY SPC AND SREF SEVERE                      
PROBABILITIES WHICH MAXIMIZE IN WRN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN.                    
MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECISION TO REDUCE HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKING GREAT               
RIGHT NOW...AS SLOWING TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE NOW PLACES BEST                  
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING STORMS ALONG/BEHIND FRONT...TO MAINLY AFFECT              
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. GIVEN ANOMALOUS PWATS...THOUGH...ANY               
STORM CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES/HR.               
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT/MONDAY                
MORNING WHEN MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY                                                    
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.              
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN                   
ONTARIO SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING               
SHOW THAT THE RAIN IS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH              
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA.                                    
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER                
LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND HOW IT COMES OUT AND                 
CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...                       
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME IS INCREASING AND HAVE MADE                  
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BACK TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION.                         
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EMERGE OUT OF             
THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO                     
TONIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK                 
CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST OR SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE TURNING TO                 
THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS ANOTHER STRONG                    
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.                                   
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND THE RUC SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH                 
OVER EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING THAT IS GENERATING A LITTLE                    
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE GFS HAS RESOLVED THIS FEATURE BRINGING IT              
ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM                 
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK              
FORCING THIS MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED                      
ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON...THE                  
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DECENT...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE...          
LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRONT WITH THE GFS SHOWING              
WEAK TO MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000 TO 850 MB LAYER AND                  
THETA-E CONVERGENCE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRENDED              
POPS DOWN A LITTLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT DID MAINTAIN LIKELY               
ACROSS THE WEST WITH JUST LOW END CHANCE IN THE EAST.                           
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING THE              
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH IT. AS THE PUSH OF COLD AIR CATCHES UP TO                
THE FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE                 
AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALL INCREASE TO MODERATE OR STRONG IN                   
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS DOES NOT BRING THE BEST                  
FORCING INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z SO HAVE LOWERED POPS                      
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EVENING WITH JUST LIKELY IN THE WEST AND                  
LOW END CHANCE IN THE EAST. AFTER 06Z...MAINTAINED THE CATEGORICAL              
OUT WEST WITH HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST.                                  
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE                
UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500 TO 300 MB LAYER IS              
EXPECTED WITH THE GFS SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 40 PVU/S WHICH ALSO                  
RESULTS IN STRONG QG CONVERGENCE. WITH THE FRONT PUSHING EAST OF                
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...THE MLCAPE DROPS TO LESS THAN 250 J/KG                
SO ONLY INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE MORNING. DID MAINTAIN                 
THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING BUT SHIFTED THEM TO THE                 
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE STRONG PV ADVECTION/QG                    
CONVERGENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR MONDAY                      
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME WRAP AROUND                  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS.                    
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS              
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE               
AREA OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES                  
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTER              
MOUNTAIN WEST. CURRENT DATABASE IS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH                    
SATURDAY AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS AT THIS TIME.                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF              
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF             
SHRA/TS INTO THE VICINITY BOTH KRST AND KLSE TAF SITES BY 17Z. IN               
ADDITION...WITH THE SHRA/TS ACTIVITY AROUND...BROKEN MVFR                       
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT. VISIBILITIES              
WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATE INTO MVFR              
CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING WITH SHRA/TS/BR.                                  
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...04                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
247 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER                
NEBRASKA RIDGING SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE                   
SHOWING CLOUDS THINNING OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST               
AREA. KGLD RADAR INDICATING RETURNS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA.            
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING.                       
MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT. AS THE LOW            
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY A RIDGE WILL MOVE               
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS BY            
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS                 
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                         
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TIMING THE END OF PRECIPITATION AND                
CHANCES FOR FROST TONIGHT.                                                      
MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN               
ZONES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SUBSIDENCE                
MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE               
RIDGE TAKES OVER.                                                               
THE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION             
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER FROST WILL BE MORE                
WIDESPREAD. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO MID 30S IN WESTERN                  
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES              
THAT DEWPOINTS COULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION             
OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER 30S FURTHER TO THE EAST WILL LIMIT FROST            
FORMATION. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE TO             
FROST FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND             
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.               
THANKS TO THE BOULDER OFFICE FOR COORDINATION.                                  
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE                  
MID/UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST                
TONIGHT IN THE WEST WITH MID 40S IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL HELP             
HOLD UP TEMPERATURES SOME. LOWS SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD IN THE WEST               
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THERE WITH LOWER            
40S EAST. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 40S.                         
IN THE EXTENDED...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF               
THIS FORECAST. THERE IS A LOW THAT IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO MOVE                
INTO NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE             
WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND                  
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLAN TO KEEP NIL POPS THROUGH THIS                   
FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAISING SILENT POPS FOR SATURDAY                 
NIGHT/SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE             
MID 70S AND THEN COOL TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES                  
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE           
TERMINALS. CURRENT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME BINOV ACROSS PRTNS OF         
WRN KS/ERN CO/SWRN NE. HOWEVER HELD ONTO BKN-OVC VFR CIGS AT BOTH KGLD          
AND KMCK UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINING NORTHWEST         
OF BOTH TERMINALS. SOME ISOLD SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KMCK ALONG A          
WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH...DECIDED TO         
INSERT VCSH ONLY AT KMCK TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY STRAY SHOWER THAT MIGHT POP         
UP THERE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FROM ABOUT 06-08Z AS SFC HIGH         
BUILDS INTO THE RGN.                                                            
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FROPA WILL DIMINISH TO VRB OVERNIGHT WITH          
WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR                
     COZ090>092.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FS/CLK                                                                          
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1100 AM MDT SUN OCT 7 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE                  
CWA THROUGH 00Z MON. CURRENT WV IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW                     
SPINNING OVER WYOMING WITH DRY AIR OVERSPREADING THE HIGH PLAINS.               
A S/WV TROUGH...ALSO EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY IS PUSHING AHEAD OF                  
THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GIVEN THIS                
AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR...REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF              
THE CWA. DID LEAVE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES                 
ALTHOUGH LOWERED POPS THERE BELOW CATEGORICAL.                                  
OTHER REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME                 
BINOV WERE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...VIS                       
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLOUDS FILLING IN UPSTREAM. GIVEN THIS                
AND GOOD CAA...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. ZONES                
ALREADY SENT.                                                                   
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 7 2007/                          
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION                 
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOW COOL DOES IT GET TODAY...HOW COLD ARE THE                 
MINS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...AND HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM UP ON MONDAY AND           
TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC                  
THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. UPPER SYSTEM OVER WYOMING MOVING STEADILY                
NORTHEAST AS STRONG RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WYOMING SYSTEM                 
HAS SLOWED A LITTLE DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING                     
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF IT. STRONG RIDGING IS BEING HELPED BY NEXT           
STRONG SYSTEM MOVING AND DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG COLD           
FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. AIR MASS              
DRIES OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.                                             
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS LOOK REASONABLY INITIALIZED. AT MID LEVELS...             
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN BRINGING IN THE RIDGING BEHIND THE               
EXITING NORTHERN SYSTEM. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THAT             
THE GFS HAS THE BEST POSITION OF THE WYOMING SYSTEM AND HAS THE                 
STRENGTH THE BEST. THE GFS IS ALSO DOING BETTER ON THE SOUTHERN                 
PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO UTAH AND COLORADO. GFS WAS              
DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE ECWMF FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET.                     
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS WERE STILL SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE ON THE                   
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW.                                                      
AT LOW LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER ON 850 MB                     
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NAM AND RUC WERE DOING WELL WITH             
THE FRONTAL POSITION. WILL CHOSE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FAVORING THE             
GFS A LITTLE MORE WITH MID AND UPPER LIFT BUT BLENDING IN SOME                  
UKMET. WILL USE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE ON THE WINDS AND THE GFS/UKMET            
ON THE TEMPERATURES.                                                            
TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY. VERY MOIST               
AIR IN PLACE THROUGH 700 MB OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST            
AREA. LATEST RUC SHOWED THAT DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION RIGHT ON THE EAST           
AND SOUTHEAST FRINGE AND THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THIS            
LINE QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA BY 15Z. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS                
HAVE ONLY INITIATED IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST                    
AREA. NAM/GFS GENERATE SOME STORMS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH                 
BELIEVE WILL HAPPEN. FRONT IS COMING THROUGH FAIRLY FAST. NAM/RUC               
HAVE THE FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AT 12Z. AND              
BASED ON THAT COMPARED WITH REALITY...BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE THIS              
MORNING WILL BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF MY AREA. WILL HAVE A SHORT               
LIVED SLIGHT CHANCE ON MY EASTERN FRINGES THIS MORNING.                         
QUESTION THEN BE IF AND WHEN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE                  
FRONT. DECENT LIFT ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS            
AFTERNOON AND REALLY GETTING IT ACT TOGETHER THIS EVENING. AIR MASS             
DRIES OUT PRETTY GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST HALF WITH THE SOUTHERN AND               
EASTERN AREAS HAVING THE BEST MOISTURE. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE                   
MODELS YESTERDAY AS WELL. SO LAYED OUT THIS EVENINGS POPS IN THAT               
MANNER. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER FOR A LITTLE BIT AFTER 06Z BUT                 
SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z.                                            
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND A WHILE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BETWEEN             
CLOUDS AND DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL DAY               
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE. 2 METER GUIDANCE SHOWING VERY LITTLE                  
RISE EVERYPLACE...ESPECIALLY AT HILL CITY WHICH STAYS STEADY OR                 
SLOWLY FALLS ALL DAY LONG. WILL SHOOT FOR BELOW GUIDANCE.                       
HOW MUCH CLOUD CLOVER AROUND WILL DETERMINE THE MINS. THE NAM HOLDS             
ONTO MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...PLAN ON GOING CLOSER TO            
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.                                                            
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...LOOK TO HAVE PLENTY OF SUN THE WHOLE DAY DUE              
TO RIDGING ALOFT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS...MAINLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE           
OF THE DAY. PLAN ON GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. NEXT                 
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR DO MINS DROP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LOW                
DEWPOINTS...AND LITTLE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS NIGHT WILL HAVE TO            
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. AGAIN PLAN ON GOING CLOSER TO THE COOLER                    
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A LOT OF SUN WITH                   
RIDGING ALOFT. WINDS START OUT LIGHT DOWNSLOPE EARLY THEN SHIFT TO A            
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WHICH IS NOT THE BEST WARM UP...             
AND MOST LIKELY WILL BE BRING IN RECYCLED COOL AIR. MAV LOOKS A                 
LITTLE WARM AND WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW IT.                                      
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS AROUND                   
3000 TO 6000 FT. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY           
00Z TONIGHT. KMCK WILL SEE -TSRA BEFORE 18Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF               
MVFR UNDER THESE THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH KGLD AND KMCK MAY SEE -SHRA IN             
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WRAPPING UP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                 
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
322 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS SHARP DEEP NORTH TO SOUTH TROF OVER THE                   
ROCKIES WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PLAINS TO JUST NORTH OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN            
GREAT LAKES REGION.                                                             
UPPER JET NOW WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER           
TROF...SO TROF SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD.                             
SURFACE TO 700 MB MOIST WITH MODIS DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES            
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. TCU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN GENERATED SOME            
ISOLATED SHOWERS. RUC HAS CAP AROUND 600 MB WITH CAPE AROUND 700                
J/KG. CURRENT RUC FORECAST MIXES THE SURFACE TO 700 MB LAYER.                   
APPEARS THIS IS HAPPENING AS CU MORE FAIR WEATHER TYPE. STILL ENOUGH            
CAPE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                         
STILL CONCERN FOR FOG WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS COMING ACROSS THE              
COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. MODIS SHOWING SHORELINE AREAS IN THE               
UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 50S JUST TO THE EAST. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW             
A SMALL PATCH OF FOG/STRATUS OFF SHORE OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY AREA.                
LIFT FROM UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO EJECT WILL INCREASE CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MADISON TONIGHT.                     
NAM SHOWS SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES             
ABOVE 950 MB.  AS SUCH THUNDER THREAT WILL REMAIN LATE TONIGHT.                 
GFS AND RUC FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GFS JUST A                 
BIT SLOWER WITH EVENTUAL UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA TO NEAR              
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MEANS BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO             
MONDAY EVENING EAST...UNTIL DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.            
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES. WITH UPPER TROUGH BECOMING             
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT...IN TIME OF MAX HEATING...SOME SEVERE                   
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST.                                                      
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS TRACK AND SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER            
WEST...WITH UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE ECMWF IS MORE                 
PROGRESSIVE AND OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.                                 
WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF DUE TO UPSTREAM KICKER...BUT HANG THE               
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR EAST.                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY. NOT WILLING TO PUSH               
SHORTWAVE EAST AS QUICK AS GFS FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH                 
UPPER RIDGE. PREFER THIS SO WILL GO DRY INTO SUNDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR AC CIGS DIMINISHING ACRS SC WI...MEANWHILE SCT-BKN              
VFR CU BUILDUP IN SE HAS RESULTED IN ISOLD CONVECTION. WILL PLAN ON             
THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER KEEPING AN              
EYE ON MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HEADING TOWARDS SW WI FROM NE IA.              
MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL STAY WEST OF KMSN TNGT...BUT WILL MONITOR.             
THINK WE WILL SEE MORE OF THE MVFR FOG AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING.                   
DECIDED TO KEEP DYNAMICS RELATED CONVECTION OUT OF KMSN THRU 18Z...             
FOLLOWING QPF SOLUTIONS MORE FROM THE GFS AND LOCAL WRF20 RATHER                
THAN THE NAM.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CORRECTED WORDING IN A FEW SPOTS                                                
HENTZ/COLLAR                                                                    
</pre> wi