FXUS04 KWBC 050647
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
246 AM EDT SAT JUN 05 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 05/1200 UTC THRU JUN 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 


MID ATL/NERN U.S...

UPR LOW VCNTY OF THE CNTL APLCNS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT LIFTS NEWD ACRS THE NRN MID ATLC AND TOWARD SRN NEW
ENGLAND.  THE ETA IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT THE
OVERALL TREND OF THE MODELS IS THE SAME..WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS OF .25 TO .50 INCH OR SO OCCURRING EARLY IN
THE PD ACRS WRN MD INTO PA AND SRN NY CLOSE TO AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER.. WITH INFLOW AND GENL UPR
SUPPORT WEAKENING RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z SUN.  

UPR MS VALLEY SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

COMPLICATED FCST ACRS THIS AREA AS NUMEROUS WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN NW FLOW INTERACT WITH WELL ESTABLISHED RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF WEAK FRONT/LEE TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY.
PATRN REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY WITH VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDS..BUT LACK OF WELL DEFINED SYNOPTIC
FEATURES MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT WHERE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE.  OVERALL LACK OF
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN QPFS AND VORT DETAILS ALONG WITH
THE EVER PRESENT GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES..ARGUES FOR TAKING
MORE OF A BLEND APPROACH MOST AREAS.  CONFIDENCE IS GENLY
LOW.  ACRS ERN TX/LA..DESPITE THE FEEDBACK BULLS EYE..THINK
GFS MAY HAVE BETTER IDEA OF POTNL FOR HEAVIER RAINS THAT AREA 
WITH LINGERING BNDRY ACRS THE REGION AND REMNANTS OF CURRENT
MCS OVER NW TX LIKELY TO TRACK TOWARD ERN TX/LA LATE MRNG OR
AFTN.  

NW U.S...

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING
OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACRS THE PAC NW INTO THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.  BEHIND THE
FRONT..CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW CONDS WILL KEEP RISK OF MDT
SHOWERS ACRS COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF WA AND NRN OR. 
OVERALL..DID NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE MODELS HERE GIVEN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.
  
SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 532814 530805 527801 521801 517802 508810 503816 500819 
      496818 491814 486811 481809 477810 470812 462819 456823 
      451828 448832 445838 442850 438860 434870 430880 429892 
      426905 421915 416920 413921 410920 409918 411915 413910 
      414906 412901 409896 403889 394881 387875 375876 368877 
      364879 362880 359884 354892 348912 348917 346923 343934 
      343938 338936 331930 324923 319916 315902 311887 308873 
      311861 313840 321824 325815 328810 331808 337806 342803 
      349796 354786 356774 358765 362754 361752 356751 354745 
      358742 364739 369737 375736 380736 384738 387742 390748 
      390755 388764 384773 380782 377794 378806 381812 385818 
      388821 392823 398822 402824 418807 424798 429787 431774 
      433760 434748 432739 432734 434729 431726 427720 425713 
      418698 415691 411687 404683 397681 384689 374691 364698 
      353707 346715 339720 329730 325735 320738 316744 312746 
      309751 303755 297760 292764 290766 274782 262794 253801 
      251803 248807 245811 245816 245821 246825 259840 266844 
      274848 282851 291857 297862 300866 299872 297881 294890 
      288908 289920 289933 289943 291958 293967 294974 297979 
      300983 305985 315988 333996 334002 336007 341015 347023 
      346030 347034 349037 355040 364044 369045 372050 375055 
      378059 383061 386061 391060 398057 406053 410051 411049 
      409046 400041 389038 381030 377027 375025 374022 376016 
      379013 383008 386005 391003 396003 402004 407003 415002 
      424997 427996 429993 433988 441980 457967 467961 477955 
      483951 487948 490946 493942 495940 502930 508920 519901 
      523888 528873 530867 530861 531852 532843 532826 532814 
 0.01 548143 549135 548128 545122 540112 536106 531099 527091 
      523084 517077 513072 508067 503062 496056 490053 483050 
      470045 466044 463047 463053 465059 468078 459089 456096 
      454099 453105 452122 454128 453136 449143 445150 445157 
      446163 445182 445189 446193 450195 454193 465182 469178 
      474183 479190 484195 482200 476203 470206 463208 437215 
      431220 424221 424226 427228 432233 431236 427236 421238 
      418240 418243 419246 424247 431248 447253 473272 478277 
      483282 491287 500289 505291 509290 513284 517273 520259 
      522250 526237 529227 532219 536203 538190 538184 537176 
      532166 532161 534157 537156 541153 544148 548143 
 0.25 518847 517839 514837 508844 503850 495858 490865 483870 
      475875 473875 471872 470868 463862 464855 466851 470844 
      472840 471837 469836 464838 461842 455848 447862 443871 
      441879 439887 437898 438910 439918 444923 444933 442943 
      438951 435958 436962 442961 447961 451958 457952 469942 
      475937 484931 490928 496921 498917 500911 502901 509885 
      513874 515864 518847 
 0.25 511265 513257 512251 510241 507229 504220 500209 497205 
      492205 476209 461216 454217 451220 451223 456225 460228 
      462231 461235 456234 452235 449236 447237 448240 458243 
      468247 482258 488266 494272 498277 503280 508277 508269 
      511265 
 0.25 520191 520185 519179 517172 515164 513157 509151 506148 
      503147 499146 496148 495158 489160 482157 471150 469154 
      470158 476161 479163 479166 480174 483182 488187 496196 
      501193 506193 516195 520191 
 0.25 513128 508112 511109 504104 498086 496076 494071 491069 
      488072 486077 485090 486097 488102 491103 485112 481120 
      469123 470132 470139 474141 483141 489139 495135 504133 
      509132 513128 
 0.25 502109 502107 499106 496105 494108 496109 499109 502109 
      502109 
 0.25 486232 485232 484227 483226 480225 477224 474224 471228 
      474229 475229 477227 480228 481231 481235 482236 484236 
      485234 486232 
 0.25 422728 418726 413726 407727 403728 402724 402734 403748 
      404753 402756 399763 394774 393781 395785 398787 402787 
      409783 413779 416774 419768 421761 422747 422732 422728 
 0.25 477107 476104 476102 473101 470099 468102 468106 468111 
      469115 469119 471115 473114 475111 476109 477107 
 0.25 421982 422976 421970 417963 409949 407942 404938 401935 
      394922 391912 387904 385898 379894 373894 367897 363902 
      359909 353939 350947 350950 348954 346959 344962 340963 
      334960 331961 331966 332968 337973 341980 345986 349990 
      355992 361991 364987 364983 368979 372976 376976 389982 
      395986 400989 406989 415991 419990 421982 
 0.25 301814 300808 297804 292798 288795 285794 283796 272800 
      263805 258809 258812 263816 270821 278824 286825 295824 
      297822 300818 301814 
 0.25 324959 324950 322942 318930 313918 309905 305904 302906 
      301911 299917 298923 297935 297943 297950 299958 301965 
      304969 310971 316967 321963 324959 
 0.50 507862 505861 502863 501865 500867 498871 498873 497876 
      499879 502878 504873 506868 506867 507862 
 0.50 503276 503271 501263 496254 490243 487240 484241 481239 
      479234 476232 473233 470236 466240 474247 483254 490261 
      497270 503276 
 0.50 509250 505240 503233 499223 496215 492213 488213 479211 
      473214 472216 475218 484221 489226 494233 498241 504248 
      505250 509250 
 0.50 502178 501174 498175 497176 498178 501178 502178 
 0.50 506123 505120 502119 499118 498118 496117 493117 490120 
      489121 490125 490126 493127 495127 498127 501127 503127 
      504127 506123 
 0.50 495185 494180 492178 489177 486179 489181 491184 494186 
      495185 
 0.50 478888 474886 470888 465893 460901 458900 458897 458891 
      453884 451883 449888 447895 447901 449904 451908 455908 
      457905 459906 461908 467904 472898 477892 478888 
 0.50 463225 466222 463219 460219 459219 459224 459225 462225 
      463225 
 0.50 452871 449871 448873 447876 446878 448880 451880 451876 
      452872 452871 
 0.50 415754 415750 415745 412745 412748 412752 415754 415754 
 0.50 406772 404769 405772 406772 406772 
 0.50 410976 409971 408967 406961 403955 399949 391941 389938 
      388934 384917 381903 375900 372901 370903 366915 364921 
      363927 360941 359947 357953 354957 355960 355964 353965 
      347968 343970 345976 349980 354982 358980 360973 362967 
      365962 368957 374956 379958 381959 382963 381966 384973 
      388976 394978 398980 405980 410976 
 0.50 293807 291805 286804 282804 277804 274805 269807 264810 
      270809 273810 278809 282810 286814 289814 291812 293807 
 0.50 317950 316940 314931 312925 309915 307912 304912 303919 
      301926 300934 300940 301950 303959 307963 312959 314954 
      317950 
 1.00 309942 310938 310935 309932 308929 307928 307929 306932 
      305934 304936 303940 304943 304945 306946 307946 307945 
      309942 309942  
 
$$