AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
817 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE CWA AS                 
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ITS LEADING EDGE NEAR TALLAHASSEE                 
EXTENDING NWD TO ALBANY AND FURTHER INTO NRN GA. WINDS HAVE BEEN                
SRLY AND GUSTY TO 25 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE A WRLY WIND                 
SHIFT IS VISIBLE BEHIND IT. MSAS OBS INDICATE A TIGHT DEW POINT                 
GRADIENT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS DEW PTS ARE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO               
THE LOWER 50S IN SRN ALABAMA.                                                   
H5 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SE                      
ARKANSAS...WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE                
NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO RIDGING OVER              
THE WRN ATLANTIC. WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR AT THE MID-               
LEVELS...MOVING TO THE EAST FROM SRN TX INTO LA.                                
AS THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CWA THIS                      
EVENING...A THIN LINE OF WEAK...LOW TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO                  
PROPAGATE EWD ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE                     
ORGANIZED INTO SW GA...WITH THE LINE THINNING AND WEAKENING                     
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT ISOLATED STRATIFORM PRECIP             
EXTENDS WELL INTO SRN ALABAMA.                                                  
OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS                 
THE CWA. LOW TEMP SPREAD WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SE ALABAMA               
TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS                 
WILL LEAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA                
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN              
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED TO              
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE               
BRIEF AND COULD BRIEFLY DROP VSBYS. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE                   
...LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR CIGS            
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST WATERS INTO EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR 20                
KNOTS...AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH INCREASING SEAS...A SMALL                   
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE OFFSHORE LEG UNTIL           
00Z THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE                 
WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A FEW                     
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN BEHIND IT.                 
THE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT OVERNIGHT KEEPING WINDS AND                 
SEAS UP. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER               
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF FOR THE                 
END OF THE WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  63  67  51  73  55 /  40  40  20  20  20                           
PANAMA CITY  59  66  55  72  59 /  40  40  20  20  20                           
DOTHAN       55  64  51  69  52 /  40  40  40  30  20                           
ALBANY       62  67  53  70  53 /  40  40  40  20  20                           
VALDOSTA     65  70  54  75  57 /  50  40  30  20  20                           
CROSS CITY   69  75  58  78  60 /  50  50  20  20  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GMZ...SCA APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN 20-60NM OUT.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CAMP/GIBBS/WOODRUM                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL3                                        
400 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY                     
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER               
THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RIDGING ALONG BOTH THE ATLANTIC               
AND PACIFIC COASTS. LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING IN THE              
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA             
OF LOW STRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WEST OF OUR               
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS PUSHING EAST WITH              
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                  
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT              
THIS TIME RUNNING FROM EASTERN AL INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN FLORIDA              
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIN STRIP OF SHOWERS AND                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS NOT AS ORGANIZED AS DURING            
THIS PAST MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH THE              
FRONT AND GIVE MOST AREAS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR                
STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE              
BEEN TRYING TO FORM FURTHER EAST WITHIN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY                      
FLOW...HOWEVER THESE HAVE REMAINED WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.                  
FAIRLY DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS ACROSS THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.            
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA            
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT            
TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING             
BACK TO MORE COMFORTABLE 50S.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                 
UPPER AND DOMINANT LOW MOVES FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS                      
EVENING TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TOWARD SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE            
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO REACH                 
WESTERN GA/WESTERN FL BIG BEND THIS EVENING AND THEN PUSH TO EASTERN            
GA/NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. AS THE BEST DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE            
FRONT DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS              
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN WITH TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS             
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT HEAVY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE                
FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY MISSING THE               
RAIN ALL TOGETHER. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF                      
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH A             
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FURTHER WEST ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND COOL POOL DYNAMICS OF              
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL SEE THE LOW STRATUS DECK AND COOLER               
TEMPS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PUSH EAST THROUGH             
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
FOR WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT STALL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA             
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALSO TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST 12Z             
GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN AL AND THE             
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. THIS IS NOW THE CLOSEST               
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHOWN. EVEN IF            
THE UPPER LOW DOESN`T MAKE IT QUITE THIS FAR SOUTH AND EAST (WHICH              
IT STILL MIGHT)...THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR               
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY              
TO THE WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN              
ONE OF THE COOLEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHERE            
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S IN SPOTS UNDER                 
STRATUS AND CONTINUES LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS             
COOL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST COLD AIR                
ADVECTION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE. STILL WILL SEE AT LEAST A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EVEN HERE...BUT THE STRATUS WILL             
NOT BE AS PREVALENT ALLOWING FOR MORE BREAKS OF SUN. WITH THE                   
CONTINUED TREND SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE TO DROP             
TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL. NOT GOING TO GO QUITE AS LOW AS            
THE MAV NUMBERS AT THIS TIME WHICH SHOW UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALL THE            
WAY TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT GRIDS ARE SHOWING UPPER               
70S TO NEAR 80 IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS AND WILL BE TAKING ABOUT 5              
DEGREES OF THESE NUMBERS AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TREND DOWN             
EVEN FURTHER IF NEEDED.                                                         
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY PULL BACK NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR              
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS THE GFS IS SHOWING MID-LEVEL DRYING TRYING             
TO COME BACK INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST Q-G FORCING                    
PIVOTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND                    
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES SHOULD LARGELY COME TO AN END             
AS WELL. A COOL NIGHT IN STORE THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING                 
BACK THROUGH THE 50S REGIONWIDE. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS LOOK TO REACH            
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND EAST AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH            
AND WEST.                                                                       
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRICKY DAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOSE                
INFLUENCE OF THE REGION. QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE               
SEE DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COOL                 
POOL. GFS HAS HAD A LONG BIAS OF HOLDING ON TO THE STRENGTH OF COLD             
POOLS FOR A BIT TOO LONG. THE ECMWF MAY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE AND              
IS RUNNING ON AVERAGE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER. EVEN THROUGH THE BEST                 
DYNAMICS HAVE LIFTED NORTH FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY WOULD NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES               
STILL HANGING AROUND THE AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE                 
DEGREE OF AFTERNOON STRATACU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A BIT BETTER                  
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON THAN WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH                 
STILL SOME BREAKS OF SUN. ADDED A FEW DEGREES TO THE VERY COOL MAV              
NUMBERS TO ARRIVE AT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) THE GFS AND ECMWF STALL THE FRONT JUST EAST            
OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION NEAR A               
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE. LATEST INDICATION ARE THAT THIS BAROCLINIC               
ZONE MAY SET UP A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND HAVE                
DROPPED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY INTO THE             
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (COORD WITH JAX/JAX/FFC/HPC). A SECONDARY PUSH              
IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL EAST BY EARLY            
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF COOLER DRIER AIR.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY             
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE CAUTIONARY                 
LEVEL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY                     
CONDITIONS ONCE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND              
THE BOUNDARY. WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT. GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND                  
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS AT OR JUST BELOW            
CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS              
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS WE MAY SEE THEM APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR             
A TIME ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD            
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE TAE FORECAST             
AREA...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z THIS               
EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KTS...ARE                
OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A NEARLY CONTINUOUS THIN                     
NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH THE EASTERN               
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT IN THE WARM MOIST             
AIRMASS EAST OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND            
SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR WITH CIGS TO DROP TO IFR TO MVFR. EXPECT THESE             
CIGS TO OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                              
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS. COOLER TEMPS...ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND CONTINUED            
SHOWER CHANCES WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS             
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  63  67  51  73  55 /  40  40  20  20  20                           
PANAMA CITY  59  66  55  72  59 /  40  40  20  20  20                           
DOTHAN       55  64  51  69  52 /  40  40  40  30  20                           
ALBANY       62  67  53  70  53 /  40  40  40  20  20                           
VALDOSTA     65  70  54  75  57 /  50  40  30  20  20                           
CROSS CITY   69  75  58  78  60 /  50  50  20  20  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WATSON                                                       
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
LONG TERM...FOURNIER/MROCZKA                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1245 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
304 PM CDT                                                                      
ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST CLEARING SOUTHEAST                   
COUNTIES OF CWA AT 19Z...WHILE VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC INITIALIZATION                 
INDICATES MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY FROM THE WEST. PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ASSOCIATED              
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL THERMAL                   
GRADIENT WEST OF THE CWA...WHILE SOMEWHAT MORE IMPRESSIVE RADAR                 
RETURNS INDICATED FROM CENTRAL IL/IND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA CLOSER              
TO SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM            
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LATEST RADAR MOSAICS DO INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS               
ATTEMPTING TO FILL THE SPACES IN BETWEEN...ACROSS FORECAST                      
AREA...THOUGH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING MAGNITUDE            
OF MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING              
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THUS               
APPEARS TO BE A LOW QPF/RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF                          
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA               
WHILE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF INDIANA BORDER TO SEE GREATER CHANCE OF               
MEASURABLE RAIN AS SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THAT AREA THIS             
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY                  
MORNING...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN                 
WI/EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL AND CLEARING SKIES FROM THE                      
NORTHWEST. WITH RIDGE MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND                 
ROCKFORD BY SUNRISE...LOW 30S DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR BEST                 
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST DEVELOPMENT. WITH MID 30S EXPECTED IN             
COOLEST SPOTS THERE WILL BE ISSUING FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL            
IL COUNTIES FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.                                          
PRECIP THEN CLEARS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE              
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PULLING SURFACE                 
RIDGE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND CLEARING SKIES. GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS               
AROUND 60/LOW 60S WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN LACK OF CLOUD                  
COVER...WITH COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FAVORED TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST               
FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE TUES/TUES NIGHT WHICH                 
BRINGS REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH BY                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL TSECTS INDICATE LITTLE IN WAY OF MOISTURE              
WITH THIS...SO MAIN EFFECT JUST TO MAINTAIN COOL TEMPS DESPITE GOOD             
DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.                                                  
WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST COAST...LOWER PORTION OF                   
CURRENT LONG WAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEDIUM               
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO EVENTUAL              
MINOR RETROGRESSION AND THEN OPENING/KICKING OUT WITH THIS                      
SYSTEM...THOUGH 00/06/12Z RUNS OF GFS IN ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO OFFER A            
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN                
IL/IN THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST GUIDANCE POPS CLUSTERED ABOUT THE            
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE DETAILS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE                
WITH TIME...HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THURS NGT/FRI AS            
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER DIGS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. SPOTTY PRECIP               
COULD POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT AS THIS                    
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES...THOUGH BETTER             
CHANCE APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THEN. STRONG HIGH            
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN ITS WAKE SATURDAY                    
NIGHT/SUNDAY.                                                                   
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION REGARDING 06Z TAFS...                                    
1245 AM CDT                                                                     
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW LINGERING BANDS OF VERY LIGHT PCPN CONTG              
TO FORM OVR NERN MO/W CNTRL IL AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS IL/IN...GENLY E             
OF A BRL-VYS-UGN LN.  CIGS GENLY VFR ALG/W OF THIS LN...WITH OCNL               
LOW RANGE MVFR CONDS TO THE E.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK                   
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LVLS.  THIS IMPULSE SHOWS UP ON SATLT IMAGERY            
OVR E CNTRL MO...JUST NW OF STL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ZIP NEWD AND             
DAMPEN OUT THRU 10Z.  IN ITS WAKE...OCNL LGT RAIN WILL END LEAVING              
VFR CIGS ACRS ENTR TERMINAL AREA.  LARGER MID LVL TROF FROM CNTRL               
ONTARIO TO LWR MO VLY IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD.  AS THIS WAVE MOVES               
ACROSS UPR GRTLKS TDY...SKIES WILL CLR FROM W-E BY 16Z.  SOME HI                
BASED DIURNAL CU LIKELY LATE MRNG-MID AFTN BUT NO CIG EXPECTED.                 
NLY WINDS ARND 10 KT TO CONTINUE TIL ARND 17Z...THEN BACK INTO WSW              
BY 23Z AS SFC HI PRES RIDGE DROPS SEWD ACRS AREA THIS AFTN.  WINDS              
TO DMNSH TO LGT SW THIS EVENING.                                                
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR 3AM ISSUANCE...                            
1250 AM CDT                                                                     
A WEAK LOW PRESURE AREA INCHES WAS LOCATED OVER QUEBEC WITH A FRONT             
TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW ASSOCIATED            
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING.                    
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST                          
MANITOBA WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE                      
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED                
WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN INCRESE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO             
WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WINDS BEHIND THIS NEXT COLD               
FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT CONDITIONS WILL HAVE              
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY.                                                  
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...FROST ADVISORY NORTH CENTRAL IL EARLY TUES.                                
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT                   
     WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND.                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY                  
     MORNING NORTHERLY ISLAND TO MICHIGAN CITY.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
210 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS TODAY AND                          
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                           
FIRST ITEM TO ADDRESS IS THE FROST ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR               
NORTON...GRAHAM...SHERIDAN AND GOVE COUNTIES. AT PRESENT TIME                   
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 38 IN NORTON...31 IN HILL CITY...36 IN                  
HOXIE AND 30 IN GOVE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES                
MAY FALL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY IN EASTERN                   
COLORADO AND ALONG THE KS/NE LINE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEARLY                        
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNRISE SO IT WONT HELP BRING TEMPS UP OVER THE              
EAST ANY TIME SOON.                                                             
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY OVER                     
NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD                    
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN CANADA. MODELS ALL HAVE A FAIR HANDLING OF                 
THIS FEATURE THROUGH 60 HOURS IN THAT IT WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF               
THE AREA. IN THE 60-84 HOUR PERIOD (12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY)                 
THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD WEST                
OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST IN THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PUSH OUR UPPER LOW A BIT TOWARD THE                
NORTHWEST. GFS HAS THE LOW OVER ARKANSAS WHILE THE NAM HAS IT OVER              
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOOKING AT THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS               
A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE NAM WITH THE PLACEMENT. THE 12Z                   
ECMWF WAS IN BETWEEN THE TWO WHILE THE 00Z RUN IS NEARLY SPOT ON                
WITH THE GFS/UKMET. WILL WEIGHT THE LATTER PARTS OF THE FORECAST                
ON THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS AS THE NAM SEEMS AN                  
OUTLIER ALTHOUGH NOT BY FAR. ONLY IMPACT FROM THE NAM WOULD HAVE                
BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLOUDS.                
TEMPERATURES SHOW A NICE WARMUP TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER                
60S TO LOW 70S. FOR WEDNESDAY 850/2M/MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS SHOW                    
LITTLE CHANGE WITH MID/UPPER 60S WEST TO NEAR 70 ACROSS FAR                     
EASTERN COLORADO AS JUST A TOUCH OF COOLER AIR WITH THE LOW STARTS              
TO IMPACT THE AREA. FOR THURSDAY WENT MID 60S EAST TO LOW 70S                   
WEST. AGAIN...WITH THE LOW RETROGRADING TOWARD THE AREA COOLER AIR              
WILL IMPACT THE EAST THE MOST...LESS OVER THE WEST.                             
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY                
AS 800 MB WINDS REACH THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. HAVE UPPED THE WINDS               
AS A RESULT WHICH ALSO MATCHES WELL WITH 03Z RUC WIND FORECASTS.                
AFTER TODAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AT RATHER                
LOW SPEEDS AS WE START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE UPPER LOW. HAVE               
TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND POPULATED THE GRIDS WITH ITS                
WINDS.                                                                          
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...                                                   
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DROPPING AFTERNOON                   
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD 60 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS NOW                
FORECAST TO BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI PER              
GFS/ECWMF AND CANADIAN FORECASTS. POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.                     
GFS/CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE WITH              
GFS 850 TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 0-2C RANGE. HAVE ADDED SOME               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS TIL 06Z THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND               
SNOW SHOWERS FROM 06Z-12Z.                                                      
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE                       
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHTS PRECIP SHOULD PUSH WESTWARD. MAY HAVE                 
SOME POPS EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BUT FOR NOW HAVE                 
KEPT IT DRY. TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT                  
WITH READINGS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE WEST TO MID 50S EAST...A BIT                 
LOWER THEN PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                   
SUNDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS                       
GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPS SHOW HIGHS IN THE 60-63 RANGE.                              
MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WITH                     
WARMING THINGS UP FURTHER AS LATEST GFS SHOWING 850 TEMPS                       
SUPPORTING READINGS AROUND 70 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. CURRENT GRIDS MAY             
NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.               
LOOKS DRY AS WELL.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN                    
COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CURRENT LLWS             
NEAR GLD WILL END AS WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.                 
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLOUDS WILL IMPACT KGLD AND EASTERN COLORADO IN              
THE MORNING...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR GENERALLY AROUND 7000FT.                 
OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE              
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND                 
INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 39KTS AT TIMES.                 
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED                
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ004-015-016-029.              
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/DDT/JRM                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
145 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEST 48 HOURS WILL BE                    
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE RUC...NAM...GFS AND HIRES               
ECMWF...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER OVER DAYS ONE                
AND TWO.  WITH THAT SAID...DO PLAN TO KEEP THE EXISTING FROST                   
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...FOR ALL BUT COMANCHE AND              
BARBER COUNTIES.  THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING AS                  
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WIND TREND DOWNWARD TO LESS THAN 7KTS.  ADDED            
AREAS OF FROST TO THE WX GRIDS...WHICH WERE AN OVERSIGHT OF THE                 
PREVIOUS SHIFT.                                                                 
AS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...SUNSHINE SHOULD COMBAT THE COOL                 
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO END UP WITH UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCALS.              
THE WEST MAY APPROACH 70F...BUT STAYED JUST SHY OF THIS DUE TO THE              
SLOWER START TO WARMING UP.  PER THE RUC GUIDANCE...NORTHWEST WINDS             
EARLY WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BY NOON AND RUN IN THE 18-21KT                  
RANGE.  THIS SHOULD THWART FULL SOLAR HEATING AND SLOW DOWN THE MID             
AFTERNOON WARM UP NORMALLY ENCOUNTERED THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WINDS                
WILL BE SLACKING OFF AROUND SUNDOWN AND DECREASE TO NORTHWEST AT 5              
TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.  THINK THE WINDS AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL                
FILTER IN BY MIDNIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL TUESDAY              
NIGHT.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.  SURROUNDING OFFICES SEEM TO                 
AGREE..BUT STILL THINK A FEW LOCALS COULD EASILY DROP INTO THE 30S...           
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.                                            
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...NO MID OR                  
LOWER CLOUDS SEEN ON THE HORIZON.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE                    
NORTHEAST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...PREVENTING ANY GREAT WARM UP.              
WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH MY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES                   
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S.  MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO             
THE UPPER 30S WEST TO AROUND 40 EAST.  WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER              
NIGHT...BUT DECOUPLE AND SPEEDS AVERAGE LESS THAN 8 KNOTS UNTIL                 
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.                                                         
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE EXT FCST THIS MORNING.                 
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN AT +120H (00Z              
SUN) WITH THE STUBBORN CUT-OFF LOW BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE POLAR               
WESTERLY FLOW AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  LARGE SURFACE              
ANTICYCLONE WILL GRIP THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES                
SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT ESCAPE THE 50S OVER MUCH OF             
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH LOW LEVEL NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THERE             
WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT             
JUST POLEWARD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE                   
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND                  
ABSENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AVIATION FCST LOOKS VERY TRANQUIL THROUGH 12Z WED.  PREVAILING WIND             
DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 330-360 DEGREES WITH SOME GUSTS IN             
THE 20-25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  NO VISIBILITY OR LOW CEILING                
CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WED.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  69  42  69  40 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK  69  40  71  39 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  69  43  71  39 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  69  42  71  40 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  69  42  69  40 /   0   0   0   0                                           
P28  68  43  67  43 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-               
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>088.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN12/25/25                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
725 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THU)...                                                
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING NORTHEAST              
ACROSS THE LAKE HURON TO A LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC. A RIDGE IS             
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A                    
SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN U.P. ANOTHER             
TROUGH IS CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE ANALYSIS                 
DEPICTS A LOW OVER GEORGIA...AND A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE              
CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. TO THE            
WEST A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN             
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CALIFORNIA. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH            
RUNS FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING A LAKE-850MB             
DELTA-T TO AROUND 10C. THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE               
AND DELTA-T`S IS JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES                
GOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST U.P. AT THIS TIME.                     
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE                 
PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM A LOW             
OVER CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE                   
SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TO THE               
WEST...A COLD FRONT DRAPES FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWEST INTO                
NORTHERN MONTANA. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND THE WINDS               
WILL BACK SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH WHICH WILL KILL OFF                   
ANY CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAINS AND CAUSE SOME SKIES TO CLEAR. THE              
DRIER AIR...LIGHT WINDS DUE TO THE HIGH...AND CLEARING SKIES WILL               
ENCOURAGE SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WILL KEEP                       
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE.                                           
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING A MOSTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH                  
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 50S.                                                   
.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THRU WED)...                                              
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT...AND WITH MIN               
PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS OF 1/4 TO 1/3RD OF AN INCH OVER THE AREA FOR            
A PORTION OF THE NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ENHANCED. WHILE            
THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE S LATE...STILL EXPECT             
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GO AT OR BLO THE COOLER GFS MOS               
GUIDANCE IN MANY AREAS. UPPER 20S/LWR 30S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE               
INTERIOR.                                                                       
FRI INTO SAT...FCST REVOLVES AROUND EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW            
OVER THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT IS PICKED UP BY SHORTWAVE                 
TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE            
LOW SHOULD DRIFT TO THE LWR OHIO VALLEY BY FRI EVENING AND THEN UP              
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SAT IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRACK E            
TO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT AFTN. WITH TRACK OF MIDLEVEL LOW WELL S OF            
HERE...THE GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE             
E HALF OF THE FCST AREA FRI...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THERE IS NO                
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WHILE THERE IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MOISTENTING OF             
THE COLUMN...OVERALL FORCING IS VERY WEAK. PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS                   
CONSIDERING TRIMMING BACK POPS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH                 
EVIDENCE TO GO IN THAT DIRECTION NOW. WILL MAINTAIN 30 POPS OVER THE            
FAR SE WITH A BUFFER OF 20 POPS...BUT REMOVE PCPN FOR THE W HALF OF             
THE FCST AREA FRI. WILL CARRY THAT THEME INTO FRI EVENING AS WE                 
AWAIT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WNW. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS              
SAT. DECENT 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UPWARDS OF 100M IN 12HR OVER THE NRN             
FCST AREA SUGGEST PCPN MENTION IS NEEDED. SINCE DEEP LAYER FORCING              
IS RATHER WEAK...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE THE CHC CATEGORY BEGINNING               
OVERNIGHT FRI. FAIRLY STRONG CAA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL SEND            
850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -6 TO -8C BY SAT EVENING. SO...NW FLOW LAKE                 
EFFECT PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.              
1000-850MB THICKNESS FALLING BLO 1300M SUGGESTS -SHRA MIXING                    
WITH/CHANGING TO -SHSN OVER THE W AND NCNTRL DURING THE AFTN AS                 
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS FALL THRU THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS             
CHANGEOVER. LAKE EFFECT REGIME WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN                 
MORNING...BUT WITH GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERTED-V LOOK AT             
THE LOWEST LEVELS...PCPN WILL BE LIGHT AND SCT.                                 
SUN THRU WED...ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET/GFS ARE ACTUALLY IN QUITE GOOD              
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE                 
AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW (MAINLY THE CANADIAN WHICH IS MUCH MORE                   
AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER MODELS)...BUT OVERALL PATTERN AND TIMING OF            
SHORTWAVES IS GOOD FOR THE 4-7DAY PERIOD. TWO SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT            
THE WEATHER HERE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE FIRST MON AND THE                 
SECOND WED. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN                
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WNW...LOW END CHC POPS            
ARE WARRANTED MON WITH THE BEST CHC OF SEEING PCPN OVER THE N AND E             
WHERE THERE IS A BETTER COMBINATION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND                
HEIGHT FALLS. GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT              
PCPN BEHIND SYSTEM AS THEY SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8C. ECWMF              
SHOWS A MORE MODERATE -3C. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND -5C WHICH                
WOULD BE JUST SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFECT                      
-SHRA/-SHSN IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND SHORTWAVE. WILL CARRY POPS MON                
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN 30-40PCT GIVEN                   
MARGINAL OVERWATER INSTABILITY AND OVERALL DRY AIRMASS INDICATED.               
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING WED...ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE RETURN             
WILL BE LIMITED. NONETHELESS...AS WITH THE SHORTWAVE MON...LOW END              
CHC POPS ARE REASONABLE. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO               
NORMAL ON THE WHOLE....BUT COULD FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DAY TO DAY               
DEPENDING ON AMPLITUDE OF THE 2 SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE AREA.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SC TO DISSOLVE THIS EVNG AT BOTH SITES AS HI               
PRES RDG/DRIER AIRMASS/LOWER INVRN BASE OVER WRN LK SUP/NE MN CONTS             
TO THE E. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREDOMINATE WITH RDG IN CONTROL                
THRU THU.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THIS EVENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS APART AS HIGH BUILDS FIRMLY                
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AND REMAIN BELOW 20                 
KNOTS INTO LATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY GALE              
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS            
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN PLAINS HIGH AND DEEPENING LOW                
OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT                
INTO SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
138 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...AFTER SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS              
EARLY THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL                  
QUICKLY DRY THINGS OUT AND CLEAR THE SKIES. IN ADDITION...GUSTY                 
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO DIMINISH EARLY                
THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE            
HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW...EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHEAST              
FLOW TO DEVELOP. DESPITE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...EXPECT CLEAR                 
SKIED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.                                             
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 959 AM                                                         
A DAY MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...                     
WINDY...COOL...AND RATHER DAMP. NORTHWEST FLOW CAA CONTINUES BEHIND             
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB                    
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -6C OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO -3C OVER            
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS...COMBINED WITH LAKE SUPERIOR AND                  
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT 14C AND 10C                
RESPECTIVELY (PER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BUOY AND GREAT LAKES                   
SURFACE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS)...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ON            
THE ORDER OF 6.5KFT...AND 900MB TO 700MB RH PERCENTAGES >70                     
PERCENT...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS             
OVER TYPICAL NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. SHOWERS EVEN              
APPEAR TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BOOST FROM SUBTLE LAKE INDUCED SURFACE            
TROUGH HANGING BACK WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS REGION.                      
FORTUNATELY (OR UNFORTUNATELY...DEPENDING ON YOUR POINT OF VIEW)                
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MAKING SURE ALL PRECIPITATION                
STAYS IN THE LIQUID VARIETY. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF             
THE DAY CENTER ON GRADUALLY DEMISE OF LAKE SHOWERS AND WHAT TO DO               
WITH CURRENT MARINE HEADLINES UNDER GUSTY MORNING WIND REGIME.                  
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND              
INTENSITY AS UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS CONFIRM LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE             
THAT BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PEEL OFF THROUGH THE                
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL               
CONTINUE TO LOWER. HOWEVER...DESPITE LOSS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY                 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...DELTA T/S REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS SHOULD            
KEEP THE LAKE STRATO CU GENERATION GOING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY             
SKIES OVER FAVORED NNW FLOW AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND PARTLY                  
CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SUN (ESPECIALLY ACROSS            
NORTHWEST LOWER) AND CONTINUING CAA SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S TO             
LOWER 50S (WARMEST NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS).               
MARINE...AFTER GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND NEAR GALES              
OVER WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP ANY WIND GUSTS              
BELOW GALE CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH                
BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWING GUST POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS AND THE             
STILL CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (NORTHERN BUOY WAVES                 
RUNNING AT 6FT)...WILL REPLACE ALL GALES WITH SCA/S. ELSEWHERE...               
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES.                                               
UPDATED GRIDS/NEARSHORES/ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                     
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE                
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT COMING ONSHORE FROM               
LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY COLD               
AIR (H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C TO -6C PER UPSTREAM RAOBS) LIGHTING              
UP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LIKELY SOON TO OCCUR            
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH               
THE SHORT TERM IS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AS WELL AS             
TEMPERATURES/WINDS.                                                             
INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE HEADED OUT OF THE PICTURE PRIOR TO               
12Z AS BEST DEEP LAYER (700-300MB) QG SUPPORT SLIPS EAST WITH THE               
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS INDICATIVE OF            
WHAT`S IN STORE THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH DROPS OVER THE                
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE OBVIOUSLY             
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (SFC-850MB            
DELTA T/S IN EXCESS OF 16C)...WITH TRAJECTORIES SLOWLY TRANSLATING              
FROM NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND                     
15Z...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW               
LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE WESTERN U.P. IN TYPICAL               
LAKE EFFECT FASHION...MID/UPPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE EARLY              
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXCELLENT AS 925-800MB RH             
HOLDS AROUND 90% THROUGH 18Z...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 6500            
FEET. THUS...ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS               
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS COLDEST OF THE AIR DROPS OVERHEAD...             
BEFORE A RATHER ABRUPT END TO ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS              
FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AND INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH/                  
MOISTURE SHALLOWS WITH APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS TODAY                 
RATHER IFFY PENDING PLACEMENT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...BUT WITH                  
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FORESEE MANY                     
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE            
40S.                                                                            
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP             
LAYER RIDGING TAKING HOLD AS HEIGHTS REBOUND TO THE NORTH OF CLOSED             
VORTEX MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DEEP               
DRYING (900-300MB RH FALLS THROUGH THE FLOOR AT 15% OR LESS)...A                
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES CERTAINLY LOOKS IN THE WORKS. GIVEN PLACEMENT             
OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...APPEARS TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE QUITE COLD - PERHAPS THE COLDEST YET THIS SEASON - WITH                 
READINGS WELL INTO THE 20S FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS GIVEN                
ALREADY COOL START EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON             
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD               
LEAD TO QUITE THE SEASONABLE DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S IF              
NOT NEAR 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.                                                     
MARINE ISSUES...AS ANTICIPATED...SEEING A QUICK UPTICK IN WINDS OVER            
THE LAKES AS COLD ADVECTION ENSUES AND CORE OF STRONGEST 900-800MB              
WINDS ADVANCES THROUGH INCREASINGLY MIXED LAYER. PER UPSTREAM VAD               
WIND PLOTS AND 06Z RUC ANALYSIS...APPEARS STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS               
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...DIMINISHING                 
RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER. SOME QUESTION ABOUT ACHIEVABILITY OF                 
GALES THIS MORNING FOR WHITEFISH BAY/LAKE MICHIGAN...NAMELY GIVEN               
ROUGHLY 35 KNOTS (MAYBE BRIEFLY HIGHER) THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS              
BEST CORE WINDS SLIDES BY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER MID LAKE BUOY IN                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALREADY PEAKING AROUND 33 KNOTS...SO WILL                     
OBVIOUSLY LEAVE GOING MENTION IN PLACE AS THINGS SHOULD TREND UP                
JUST A BIT THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS A NEAR               
CERTAINTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON (INCLUDING LOCATIONS WHERE CURRENT             
GALES ALREADY UP)...WITH WINDS ALL LOCATIONS DIMINISHING RATHER                 
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.                               
LATER PERIODS (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODEL GUIDANCE                  
CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO LOCK ONTO A SOLUTION REGARDING THE SOUTHERN             
CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND              
WEATHER OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/CANADIAN              
AND 12Z ECMWF REMAIN IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A GRADUAL                
SHIFT OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AS                
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES               
YIELDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENT TO "CATCH" THE               
SYSTEM. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO OCCUR...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT MID                 
LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH AMPLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING                  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS TONGUE OF WARM ADVECTION WRAPS NORTH AHEAD OF             
THE GYRE WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.                
CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY SUPPORTS CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH               
SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AND THIS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES.             
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1723 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS                                           
.DISCUSSION (1030 AM EDT)...                                                    
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR            
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND             
THE HIGH ARE WEAKENING AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES THE U.P. COLD AIR                
ADVECTION ASSOICATED INSTABILITY ALSO GENERATING LAKE EFFECT RAIN               
SHOWERS WITH BEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WILL                   
DIMINISH AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM WEST AND FLOW BECOMES               
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL            
BUT THREE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE LONGER FETCH OVER THE LAKE COULD               
STILL SUSTAIN SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL SNDGS ALSO SHOW             
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING TO 4KFT OR LESS WITH INCREASINGLY DRIER              
AIR BELOW THE INVERSION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CLOUDS            
TO BREAK UP OVER WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH INCREASING                      
SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO HAPPEN. PLAN TO UPDATE THE              
FORECAST MAINLY TO UPDATE THE WORDING.                                          
.EXTENDED...                                                                    
TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH SFC RDG MOVING OVER            
AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR FAVORED                 
INLAND COLD SPOTS. BOUNDARY LYR WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER               
THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT COULD TEMPER COOLING SOMEWHAT BY DAYBREAK.               
THU...WITH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RDG STILL OVER THE REGION WOULD                
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO 900 MB TEMPS                  
AROUND 5C SHOULD PUSH MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER                    
50S...PER GFS MOS GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.                                  
THU NIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLD FIRM OVER THE AREA SO AGAIN EXPECT              
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE            
READINGS SHOULD LOWER TOWARD GFS MOS GUIDANCE (AROUND 30F). BACKED              
OFF ON INCREASING CLOUDS SOME AS MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH ADVANCE            
OF SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY.                                           
FRI INTO SAT...FOLLOWING THE NCEP PREFERRED 12Z ECMWF SOLN WHICH HAS            
THE SUPPORT OF MODEL ENSEMBLES...BACKED OFF SOME ON TIMING OF                   
INCREASING CLOUDS FOR FRI AS ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER NOW THAN 00Z              
GFS WITH ADVANCE OF LOWER MISS VALLEY SYSTEM. STILL KEPT IN CHC OF              
RAIN FOR COUNTIES ALONG LAKE MI WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE BY FRI                
AFTERNOON. ALSO CONTINUED GOING FCST OF CHC OF RAIN FRI NIGHT ACROSS            
THE CWA...BUT COULD EASILY SEE POPS BEING TRIMMED BACK IF ECMWF                 
CONTINUES EASTWARD TREND WITH SYSTEM THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ERN            
GREAT LAKES. ALSO CHCS FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN FOR SAT COULD BE                    
DIMINISHED AS WELL WITH ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD MORE ANTICYCLONIC NRLY            
FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH GREATER INFLUENCE OF NRN PLAINS RIDGE.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK LAKE                 
EFFECT SHOWERS IN PLACE. ENOUGH COOL AIR IS ALLOWING SNOW TO MIX                
WITH RAIN AT KCMX. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS REMAIN ISOLATED WITH DRY AIR                
JUST ABOVE CLOUD BASE...EXPECT A FEW PERIODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OF            
MVFR CEILIGNS IN LIGHT SHOWERS. ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO LIFT                
CEILINGS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD COMPLETELY CLEAR                
THIS EVENING. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG                  
FORMATION TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR INCREASING THE MIXING LAYER WINDS TO 20 KNOTS...SO EXPECT              
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO KCMX ON THURSDAY MORNING AT KCMX.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
GALES TO 45 KNOTS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT LATE LAST EVENING.            
GALES EXPECTED EARLY TODAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING               
BETWEEN PLAINS HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO.             
PRESSURE RISE OF 6 MB/3 HR WILL ALSO SWING ACROSS THE LAKE TO HELP              
KEEP GALES GOING. BY THIS EVENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS APART AS              
HIGH BUILDS FIRMLY INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AND              
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS INTO LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER BOUT OF                  
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT             
INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN PLAINS HIGH AND                
DEEPENING LOW OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS DIMINISH LATER SAT NIGHT            
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
EXTENDED...VOSS                                                                 
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1025 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS                                           
.DISCUSSION (530 AM EDT)...                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR            
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND             
THE HIGH ARE WEAKENING AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES THE U.P. COLD AIR                
ADVECTION ASSOICATED INSTABILITY ALSO GENERATING LAKE EFFECT RAIN               
SHOWERS WITH BEST COVERAGE AT THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WILL                   
DIMINISH AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM WEST AND FLOW BECOMES               
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL            
BUT THREE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE LONGER FETCH OVER THE LAKE COULD               
STILL SUSTAIN SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL SNDGS ALSO SHOW             
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING TO 4KFT OR LESS WITH INCREASINGLY DRIER              
AIR BELOW THE INVERSION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CLOUDS            
TO BREAK UP OVER WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH INCREASING                      
SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO HAPPEN. PLAN TO UPDATE THE              
FORECAST MAINLY TO UPDATE THE WORDING.                                          
.EXTENDED...                                                                    
TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH SFC RDG MOVING OVER            
AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR FAVORED                 
INLAND COLD SPOTS. BOUNDARY LYR WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER               
THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT COULD TEMPER COOLING SOMEWHAT BY DAYBREAK.               
THU...WITH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RDG STILL OVER THE REGION WOULD                
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO 900 MB TEMPS                  
AROUND 5C SHOULD PUSH MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER                    
50S...PER GFS MOS GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.                                  
THU NIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLD FIRM OVER THE AREA SO AGAIN EXPECT              
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE            
READINGS SHOULD LOWER TOWARD GFS MOS GUIDANCE (AROUND 30F). BACKED              
OFF ON INCREASING CLOUDS SOME AS MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH ADVANCE            
OF SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY.                                           
FRI INTO SAT...FOLLOWING THE NCEP PREFERRED 12Z ECMWF SOLN WHICH HAS            
THE SUPPORT OF MODEL ENSEMBLES...BACKED OFF SOME ON TIMING OF                   
INCREASING CLOUDS FOR FRI AS ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER NOW THAN 00Z              
GFS WITH ADVANCE OF LOWER MISS VALLEY SYSTEM. STILL KEPT IN CHC OF              
RAIN FOR COUNTIES ALONG LAKE MI WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE BY FRI                
AFTERNOON. ALSO CONTINUED GOING FCST OF CHC OF RAIN FRI NIGHT ACROSS            
THE CWA...BUT COULD EASILY SEE POPS BEING TRIMMED BACK IF ECMWF                 
CONTINUES EASTWARD TREND WITH SYSTEM THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ERN            
GREAT LAKES. ALSO CHCS FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN FOR SAT COULD BE                    
DIMINISHED AS WELL WITH ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD MORE ANTICYCLONIC NRLY            
FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH GREATER INFLUENCE OF NRN PLAINS RIDGE.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK LK EFFECT REGIME IN PLACE. ENOUGH            
COOL AIR IS ALLOWING SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN AT KCMX AND AT OUR OFFICE            
IN NEGAUNEE TWP. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS REMAIN ISOLATED WITH DRY AIR JUST             
ABOVE CLOUD BASE...EXPECT A FEW PERIODS THIS MORNING OF MVFR VSBY IN            
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS TO LIFT CIGS TO VFR LATE TODAY            
AND SKIES SHOULD COMPLETELY CLEAR THIS EVENING. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY             
FOG FOR TONIGHT DESPITE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THINK THE               
LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG FORMATION.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
GALES TO 45 KNOTS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT LATE LAST EVENING.            
GALES EXPECTED EARLY TODAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING               
BETWEEN PLAINS HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO.             
PRESSURE RISE OF 6 MB/3 HR WILL ALSO SWING ACROSS THE LAKE TO HELP              
KEEP GALES GOING. BY THIS EVENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS APART AS              
HIGH BUILDS FIRMLY INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AND              
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS INTO LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER BOUT OF                  
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT             
INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN PLAINS HIGH AND                
DEEPENING LOW OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS DIMINISH LATER SAT NIGHT            
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
EXTENDED...VOSS                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...JLA                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
959 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...A DAY MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE                        
NORTHLAND...WINDY...COOL...AND RATHER DAMP. NORTHWEST FLOW CAA                  
CONTINUES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH LATEST RUC ANALYSIS                 
SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -6C OVER CENTRAL LAKE                   
SUPERIOR TO -3C OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS...COMBINED WITH               
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING             
AT 14C AND 10C RESPECTIVELY (PER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BUOY AND                
GREAT LAKES SURFACE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS)...LAKE INDUCED                      
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 6.5KFT...AND 900MB TO 700MB RH               
PERCENTAGES >70 PERCENT...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF LAKE                 
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER TYPICAL NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW              
AREAS. SHOWERS EVEN APPEAR TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BOOST FROM SUBTLE             
LAKE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH HANGING BACK WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE                 
STRAITS REGION.  FORTUNATELY (OR UNFORTUNATELY...DEPENDING ON YOUR              
POINT OF VIEW) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MAKING SURE ALL               
PRECIPITATION STAYS IN THE LIQUID VARIETY. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE            
REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER ON GRADUALLY DEMISE OF LAKE SHOWERS AND             
WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT MARINE HEADLINES UNDER GUSTY MORNING WIND               
REGIME.                                                                         
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND              
INTENSITY AS UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS CONFIRM LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE             
THAT BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PEEL OFF THROUGH THE                
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL               
CONTINUE TO LOWER. HOWEVER...DESPITE LOSS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY                 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...DELTA T/S REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS SHOULD            
KEEP THE LAKE STRATO CU GENERATION GOING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY             
SKIES OVER FAVORED NNW FLOW AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND PARTLY                  
CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SUN (ESPECIALLY ACROSS            
NORTHWEST LOWER) AND CONTINUING CAA SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S TO             
LOWER 50S (WARMEST NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS).               
MARINE...AFTER GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND NEAR GALES              
OVER WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP ANY WIND GUSTS              
BELOW GALE CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH                
BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWING GUST POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS AND THE             
STILL CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (NORTHERN BUOY WAVES                 
RUNNING AT 6FT)...WILL REPLACE ALL GALES WITH SCA/S. ELSEWHERE...               
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES.                                               
UPDATED GRIDS/NEARSHORES/ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                     
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 655 AM                                                       
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONGOING AS COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO                   
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON            
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION THIS EVENING.                
OVERALL NORTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SUPPORT BEST              
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/LOWEST CEILINGS AROUND KPLN AND KTVC...WHERE                 
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO                
BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH FREQUENT               
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL              
BE NOTED BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD...WITH                
WINDS DROPPING QUICKLY TO UNDER 5 KNOTS AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.               
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE                
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT COMING ONSHORE FROM               
LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY COLD               
AIR (H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C TO -6C PER UPSTREAM RAOBS) LIGHTING              
UP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LIKELY SOON TO OCCUR            
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH               
THE SHORT TERM IS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AS WELL AS             
TEMPERATURES/WINDS.                                                             
INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE HEADED OUT OF THE PICTURE PRIOR TO               
12Z AS BEST DEEP LAYER (700-300MB) QG SUPPORT SLIPS EAST WITH THE               
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS INDICATIVE OF            
WHAT`S IN STORE THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH DROPS OVER THE                
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE OBVIOUSLY             
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (SFC-850MB            
DELTA T/S IN EXCESS OF 16C)...WITH TRAJECTORIES SLOWLY TRANSLATING              
FROM NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND                     
15Z...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW               
LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE WESTERN U.P. IN TYPICAL               
LAKE EFFECT FASHION...MID/UPPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE EARLY              
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXCELLENT AS 925-800MB RH             
HOLDS AROUND 90% THROUGH 18Z...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 6500            
FEET. THUS...ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS               
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS COLDEST OF THE AIR DROPS OVERHEAD...             
BEFORE A RATHER ABRUPT END TO ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS              
FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AND INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH/                  
MOISTURE SHALLOWS WITH APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS TODAY                 
RATHER IFFY PENDING PLACEMENT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...BUT WITH                  
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FORESEE MANY                     
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE            
40S.                                                                            
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP             
LAYER RIDGING TAKING HOLD AS HEIGHTS REBOUND TO THE NORTH OF CLOSED             
VORTEX MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DEEP               
DRYING (900-300MB RH FALLS THROUGH THE FLOOR AT 15% OR LESS)...A                
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES CERTAINLY LOOKS IN THE WORKS. GIVEN PLACEMENT             
OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...APPEARS TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE QUITE COLD - PERHAPS THE COLDEST YET THIS SEASON - WITH                 
READINGS WELL INTO THE 20S FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS GIVEN                
ALREADY COOL START EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON             
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD               
LEAD TO QUITE THE SEASONABLE DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S IF              
NOT NEAR 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.                                                     
MARINE ISSUES...AS ANTICIPATED...SEEING A QUICK UPTICK IN WINDS OVER            
THE LAKES AS COLD ADVECTION ENSUES AND CORE OF STRONGEST 900-800MB              
WINDS ADVANCES THROUGH INCREASINGLY MIXED LAYER. PER UPSTREAM VAD               
WIND PLOTS AND 06Z RUC ANALYSIS...APPEARS STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS               
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...DIMINISHING                 
RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER. SOME QUESTION ABOUT ACHIEVABILITY OF                 
GALES THIS MORNING FOR WHITEFISH BAY/LAKE MICHIGAN...NAMELY GIVEN               
ROUGHLY 35 KNOTS (MAYBE BRIEFLY HIGHER) THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS              
BEST CORE WINDS SLIDES BY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER MID LAKE BUOY IN                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALREADY PEAKING AROUND 33 KNOTS...SO WILL                     
OBVIOUSLY LEAVE GOING MENTION IN PLACE AS THINGS SHOULD TREND UP                
JUST A BIT THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS A NEAR               
CERTAINTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON (INCLUDING LOCATIONS WHERE CURRENT             
GALES ALREADY UP)...WITH WINDS ALL LOCATIONS DIMINISHING RATHER                 
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.                               
LATER PERIODS (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODEL GUIDANCE                  
CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO LOCK ONTO A SOLUTION REGARDING THE SOUTHERN             
CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND              
WEATHER OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/CANADIAN              
AND 12Z ECMWF REMAIN IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A GRADUAL                
SHIFT OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AS                
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES               
YIELDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENT TO "CATCH" THE               
SYSTEM. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO OCCUR...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT MID                 
LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH AMPLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING                  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS TONGUE OF WARM ADVECTION WRAPS NORTH AHEAD OF             
THE GYRE WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.                
CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY SUPPORTS CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH               
SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AND THIS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES.             
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
655 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONGOING AS COLD AIRMASS                    
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO               
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION              
THIS EVENING. OVERALL NORTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME                  
WILL SUPPORT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/LOWEST CEILINGS AROUND KPLN                
AND KTVC...WHERE PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY OUT OF THE                        
NORTHWEST...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED.              
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH                      
PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS DROPPING QUICKLY TO UNDER 5               
KNOTS AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.                                                 
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE                
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT COMING ONSHORE FROM               
LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY COLD               
AIR (H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C TO -6C PER UPSTREAM RAOBS) LIGHTING              
UP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LIKELY SOON TO OCCUR            
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH               
THE SHORT TERM IS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AS WELL AS             
TEMPERATURES/WINDS.                                                             
INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE HEADED OUT OF THE PICTURE PRIOR TO               
12Z AS BEST DEEP LAYER (700-300MB) QG SUPPORT SLIPS EAST WITH THE               
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS INDICATIVE OF            
WHAT`S IN STORE THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH DROPS OVER THE                
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE OBVIOUSLY             
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (SFC-850MB            
DELTA T/S IN EXCESS OF 16C)...WITH TRAJECTORIES SLOWLY TRANSLATING              
FROM NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND                     
15Z...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW               
LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE WESTERN U.P. IN TYPICAL               
LAKE EFFECT FASHION...MID/UPPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE EARLY              
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXCELLENT AS 925-800MB RH             
HOLDS AROUND 90% THROUGH 18Z...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 6500            
FEET. THUS...ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS               
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS COLDEST OF THE AIR DROPS OVERHEAD...             
BEFORE A RATHER ABRUPT END TO ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS              
FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AND INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH/                  
MOISTURE SHALLOWS WITH APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS TODAY                 
RATHER IFFY PENDING PLACEMENT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...BUT WITH                  
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FORESEE MANY                     
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE            
40S.                                                                            
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP             
LAYER RIDGING TAKING HOLD AS HEIGHTS REBOUND TO THE NORTH OF CLOSED             
VORTEX MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DEEP               
DRYING (900-300MB RH FALLS THROUGH THE FLOOR AT 15% OR LESS)...A                
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES CERTAINLY LOOKS IN THE WORKS. GIVEN PLACEMENT             
OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...APPEARS TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE QUITE COLD - PERHAPS THE COLDEST YET THIS SEASON - WITH                 
READINGS WELL INTO THE 20S FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS GIVEN                
ALREADY COOL START EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON             
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD               
LEAD TO QUITE THE SEASONABLE DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S IF              
NOT NEAR 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.                                                     
MARINE ISSUES...AS ANTICIPATED...SEEING A QUICK UPTICK IN WINDS OVER            
THE LAKES AS COLD ADVECTION ENSUES AND CORE OF STRONGEST 900-800MB              
WINDS ADVANCES THROUGH INCREASINGLY MIXED LAYER. PER UPSTREAM VAD               
WIND PLOTS AND 06Z RUC ANALYSIS...APPEARS STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS               
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...DIMINISHING                 
RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER. SOME QUESTION ABOUT ACHIEVABILITY OF                 
GALES THIS MORNING FOR WHITEFISH BAY/LAKE MICHIGAN...NAMELY GIVEN               
ROUGHLY 35 KNOTS (MAYBE BRIEFLY HIGHER) THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS              
BEST CORE WINDS SLIDES BY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER MID LAKE BUOY IN                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALREADY PEAKING AROUND 33 KNOTS...SO WILL                     
OBVIOUSLY LEAVE GOING MENTION IN PLACE AS THINGS SHOULD TREND UP                
JUST A BIT THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS A NEAR               
CERTAINTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON (INCLUDING LOCATIONS WHERE CURRENT             
GALES ALREADY UP)...WITH WINDS ALL LOCATIONS DIMINISHING RATHER                 
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.                               
LATER PERIODS (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODEL GUIDANCE                  
CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO LOCK ONTO A SOLUTION REGARDING THE SOUTHERN             
CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND              
WEATHER OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/CANADIAN              
AND 12Z ECMWF REMAIN IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A GRADUAL                
SHIFT OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AS                
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES               
YIELDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENT TO "CATCH" THE               
SYSTEM. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO OCCUR...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT MID                 
LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH AMPLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING                  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS TONGUE OF WARM ADVECTION WRAPS NORTH AHEAD OF             
THE GYRE WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.                
CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY SUPPORTS CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH               
SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AND THIS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES.             
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.          
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES INCLUDE DIMINISHING TREND OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS               
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THEN RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT AS               
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE                
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.                                                        
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE MID-UPR TROF AXIS              
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FCST AREA. FAIRLY TIGHT NRLY GRADIENT PERSISTS            
EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN ASSOC SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOO AND              
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. PRES RISE MAX OF 5+ MB MOVING              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH CAA (8H TEMPS LOWERING TO -6/-7C) IN              
WAKE OF TROF/COLD FRONT ENHANCING GALES FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND            
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. CAA AND ASSOC INSTABILITY            
ALSO GENERATING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH BEST COVERAGE ATTM                
OVER CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                             
TODAY...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 12Z                
AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM WEST AND FLOW BECOMES                        
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL              
BUT THREE ERN COUNTIES WHERE LONGER FETCH OVER THE LAKE COULD STILL             
SUSTAIN SOME SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL SNDGS ALSO SHOW INVERSION               
HEIGHTS LOWERING TO 4KFT OR LESS WITH INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR BLO THE            
INVERSION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO SEE A CLOUDS             
BREAKING UP OVER WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH INCREASING                      
SUBSIDENCE.                                                                     
TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH SFC RDG MOVING OVER            
AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR FAVORED                 
INLAND COLD SPOTS. BOUNDARY LYR WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER               
THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT COULD TEMPER COOLING SOMEWHAT BY DAYBREAK.               
THU...WITH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RDG STILL OVER THE REGION WOULD                
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO 900 MB TEMPS                  
AROUND 5C SHOULD PUSH MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER                    
50S...PER GFS MOS GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.                                  
THU NIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLD FIRM OVER THE AREA SO AGAIN EXPECT              
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE            
READINGS SHOULD LOWER TOWARD GFS MOS GUIDANCE (AROUND 30F). BACKED              
OFF ON INCREASING CLOUDS SOME AS MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH ADVANCE            
OF SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY.                                           
FRI INTO SAT...FOLLOWING THE NCEP PREFERRED 12Z ECMWF SOLN WHICH HAS            
THE SUPPORT OF MODEL ENSEMBLES...BACKED OFF SOME ON TIMING OF                   
INCREASING CLOUDS FOR FRI AS ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER NOW THAN 00Z              
GFS WITH ADVANCE OF LOWER MISS VALLEY SYSTEM. STILL KEPT IN CHC OF              
RAIN FOR COUNTIES ALONG LAKE MI WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE BY FRI                
AFTERNOON. ALSO CONTINUED GOING FCST OF CHC OF RAIN FRI NIGHT ACROSS            
THE CWA...BUT COULD EASILY SEE POPS BEING TRIMMED BACK IF ECMWF                 
CONTINUES EASTWARD TREND WITH SYSTEM THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ERN            
GREAT LAKES. ALSO CHCS FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN FOR SAT COULD BE                    
DIMINISHED AS WELL WITH ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD MORE ANTICYCLONIC NRLY            
FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH GREATER INFLUENCE OF NRN PLAINS RIDGE.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN                  
SHOWERS WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROWN INTO THE MIX. REMOVED               
SNOW FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS NAM SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW IT...GFS            
STILL DOES AT KSAW AND KCMX. THINK THE GFS IS TOO COLD AT THE LOW               
LEVELS AND BELIEVE THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB...SO PCPN SHOULD               
REMAIN AS RAIN AND NOT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AT               
EITHER PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KCMX AND KSAW TOWARDS               
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE AREA AND LIGHTER              
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
GALES TO 45 KNOTS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT LATE LAST EVENING.            
GALES EXPECTED EARLY TODAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING               
BETWEEN PLAINS HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO.             
PRESSURE RISE OF 6 MB/3 HR WILL ALSO SWING ACROSS THE LAKE TO HELP              
KEEP GALES GOING. BY THIS EVENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS APART AS              
HIGH BUILDS FIRMLY INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AND              
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS INTO LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER BOUT OF                  
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT             
INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN PLAINS HIGH AND                
DEEPENING LOW OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS DIMINISH LATER SAT NIGHT            
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GALE WARNING TIL  8 AM EDT TODAY LSZ243>245-263>265                             
GALE WARNING TIL 10 AM EDT TODAY LSZ249>251-266-267                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...MICHELS                                                              
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
411 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE               
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT COMING ONSHORE FROM               
LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY COLD               
AIR (H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C TO -6C PER UPSTREAM RAOBS) LIGHTING              
UP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LIKELY SOON TO OCCUR            
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH               
THE SHORT TERM IS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AS WELL AS             
TEMPERATURES/WINDS.                                                             
INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE HEADED OUT OF THE PICTURE PRIOR TO               
12Z AS BEST DEEP LAYER (700-300MB) QG SUPPORT SLIPS EAST WITH THE               
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS INDICATIVE OF            
WHAT`S IN STORE THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH DROPS OVER THE                
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE OBVIOUSLY             
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (SFC-850MB            
DELTA T/S IN EXCESS OF 16C)...WITH TRAJECTORIES SLOWLY TRANSLATING              
FROM NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND                     
15Z...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW               
LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE WESTERN U.P. IN TYPICAL               
LAKE EFFECT FASHION...MID/UPPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE EARLY              
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXCELLENT AS 925-800MB RH             
HOLDS AROUND 90% THROUGH 18Z...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 6500            
FEET. THUS...ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS               
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS COLDEST OF THE AIR DROPS OVERHEAD...             
BEFORE A RATHER ABRUPT END TO ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS              
FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AND INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH/                  
MOISTURE SHALLOWS WITH APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS TODAY                 
RATHER IFFY PENDING PLACEMENT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...BUT WITH                  
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FORESEE MANY                     
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE            
40S.                                                                            
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP             
LAYER RIDGING TAKING HOLD AS HEIGHTS REBOUND TO THE NORTH OF CLOSED             
VORTEX MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DEEP               
DRYING (900-300MB RH FALLS THROUGH THE FLOOR AT 15% OR LESS)...A                
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES CERTAINLY LOOKS IN THE WORKS. GIVEN PLACEMENT             
OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...APPEARS TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE QUITE COLD - PERHAPS THE COLDEST YET THIS SEASON - WITH                 
READINGS WELL INTO THE 20S FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS GIVEN                
ALREADY COOL START EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON             
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD               
LEAD TO QUITE THE SEASONABLE DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S IF              
NOT NEAR 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.                                                     
MARINE ISSUES...AS ANTICIPATED...SEEING A QUICK UPTICK IN WINDS OVER            
THE LAKES AS COLD ADVECTION ENSUES AND CORE OF STRONGEST 900-800MB              
WINDS ADVANCES THROUGH INCREASINGLY MIXED LAYER. PER UPSTREAM VAD               
WIND PLOTS AND 06Z RUC ANALYSIS...APPEARS STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS               
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...DIMINISHING                 
RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER. SOME QUESTION ABOUT ACHIEVABILITY OF                 
GALES THIS MORNING FOR WHITEFISH BAY/LAKE MICHIGAN...NAMELY GIVEN               
ROUGHLY 35 KNOTS (MAYBE BRIEFLY HIGHER) THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS              
BEST CORE WINDS SLIDES BY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER MID LAKE BUOY IN                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALREADY PEAKING AROUND 33 KNOTS...SO WILL                     
OBVIOUSLY LEAVE GOING MENTION IN PLACE AS THINGS SHOULD TREND UP                
JUST A BIT THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS A NEAR               
CERTAINTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON (INCLUDING LOCATIONS WHERE CURRENT             
GALES ALREADY UP)...WITH WINDS ALL LOCATIONS DIMINISHING RATHER                 
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.                               
LATER PERIODS (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODEL GUIDANCE                  
CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO LOCK ONTO A SOLUTION REGARDING THE SOUTHERN             
CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND              
WEATHER OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/CANADIAN              
AND 12Z ECMWF REMAIN IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A GRADUAL                
SHIFT OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AS                
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES               
YIELDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENT TO "CATCH" THE               
SYSTEM. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO OCCUR...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT MID                 
LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH AMPLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING                  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS TONGUE OF WARM ADVECTION WRAPS NORTH AHEAD OF             
THE GYRE WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.                
CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY SUPPORTS CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH               
SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AND THIS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES.             
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 203 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007/                                
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT                
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE SHOWERS                
WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS                 
AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITHIN THE SHOWERS. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT                
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD                  
DAYBREAK. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF                   
TODAY...IMPACTING MAINLY TVC/PLN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.                 
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WX WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN              
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.          
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE                
BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH               
EXTENDS FROM A JAMES BAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TO             
THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. A BROAD RIDGE BLANKETS THE ROCKIES.            
A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE IS OVER THE MINNESOTA             
ARROWHEAD POISED TO ENTER INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN U.P.                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD             
FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE             
WESTERN U.P.                                                                    
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO                    
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.             
THE MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN             
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY            
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND OVER THE KDET BY SUNRISE. GUIDANCE SHOWING DEEP            
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THUS            
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC                  
ASCENT WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SQUEEZE SOME OF THE MOISTURE OUT            
OF THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA THE             
U.P. THIS EVENING AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AND NORTH                   
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. RAIN IS ALREADY ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY               
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN ONTARIO...AND THE KCMX AREA. A                
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON              
WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN 850MB              
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SIDE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND            
WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A LAKE-850MB DELTA-T OF 14C. WINDS WILL BE OUT              
OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS WILL PRODUCE COLD                
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES AND A LONG ENOUGH FETCH TO DEVELOP A FEW LAKE               
EFFECT RAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. IN THE AFTERNOON. TIGHT GRADIENTS            
AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEE               
THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(WED NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT FOLLOWED BY LAKE               
EFFECT PCPN POTENTIAL INTO EARLY SUN.                                           
WED NIGHT...VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH A SFC                 
RDG MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S            
INLAND. EVEN THOUGH SSW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO 15-20 KT MOVE INTO              
THE NW HALF OVERNIGHT...PER 12Z NAM...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE DURING            
THE EVENING WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.                    
THU...THE SFC AND MID LEVEL RDG REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY            
SUNNY. SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO 900 MB TEMPS AROUND 5C SHOULD PUSH MAX            
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                                         
FRI INTO SAT...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE                
SOLUTION WITH A FASTER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPING TO KICK THE                 
CUTOFF LOW MORE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FCST LEANED MORE                  
TOWARD THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL GEM WHICH OFFERED A REASONABLE                   
COMPROMISE BTWN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER 12ZUKMET/00ZECMWF. THE 12Z            
ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN MDL             
TIMING BUT WAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AT 12Z/SAT.                                  
EXPECT A BAND OF PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TO                
SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SE TO NW TOWARD AND INTO THE CWA IF THE MID LEVEL            
LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH. WITH REMAINING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE                 
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND WEST/CNTRL UPPER MI MAINLY ON THE EDGE OF              
THE FCST PCPN SHIELD...ONLY LOWER END POPS WERE POPS WERE                       
MENTIONED...GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST.                                        
AS THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES IN IT SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH COLD             
AIR...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -6C TO -8C AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS            
VALUES BLO 1305M FOR POTENTIAL OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN              
FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. MODELS TREND TOWARD WNW FLOW                
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE SFC RDG TO BUILD IN WITH BACKING               
WINDS AND WAA...BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT PCPN BY SUN                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
MON-TUE...THE FCST LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINED            
WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DIFFERENCES WITH               
THE GFS WHICH TRENDS TOWARD MORE SW FLOW STEM IN PART FROM POSITION             
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. EVEN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE             
IN DETAILS OF THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK...MAIN SUPPORT FOR PCPN WOULD BE            
WAA AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND A            
TROF/FRONT THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. WITH ONLY LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR             
MOISTURE INFLOW...FCST DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF PCPN.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN                  
SHOWERS WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROWN INTO THE MIX. REMOVED               
SNOW FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS NAM SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW IT...GFS            
STILL DOES AT KSAW AND KCMX. THINK THE GFS IS TOO COLD AT THE LOW               
LEVELS AND BELIEVE THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB...SO PCPN SHOULD               
REMAIN AS RAIN AND NOT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AT               
EITHER PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KCMX AND KSAW TOWARDS               
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE AREA AND LIGHTER              
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH MOVING OUT THE PLAINS AND THE               
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT COUPLED WITH                
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN NW TO N GALES             
TO 35-40 KT ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO                   
SUBSIDE FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE WED                
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH              
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT LATE            
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                
AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TO NEAR 30 KT AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO             
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER                 
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE             
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON SATURDAY ANOTHER RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEAKENING THE                    
GRADIENTS AGAIN.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING FOR LAKE SUPERIOR               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...MICHELS                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...DLG                                                         
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN            
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE                
BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH               
EXTENDS FROM A JAMES BAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS KANJ TO THE LOW OVER                  
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. A BROAD RIDGE BLANKETS THE ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE             
SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA AND                  
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN                 
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MINNESOTA             
ARROWHEAD...THEN WEST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.                                      
THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO SOUTHEAST                    
MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONTARIO                  
SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL SOUTHEAST INTO THE THUNDER BAY AREA. THE COLD               
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE WEST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY NOON AND                
INTO CENTRAL U.P. AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.                  
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO             
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY NOON AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.               
THUS Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC             
ASCENT WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SQUEEZE SOME OF THE MOISTURE OUT            
OF THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA THE             
U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN              
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS THE ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT INCREASES. RAIN IS ALREADY ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY OVER               
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON TODAY BEFORE RAIN               
SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH THE CANADIAN FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHEN THE RAIN                
MOVES IN...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND            
TO THE NORTHWEST. RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT            
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO 35 KNOTS            
OR GREATER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GFS SHOWING                   
SATURATED CONDITIONS AROUND 2.5K FEET AND LITTLE LIGHTER WINDS BY               
18Z. GFS SHOWING 875MB TEMPERATURE AROUND -5C WITH SURFACE                      
TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE POSSIBILITY OF -RASN                
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 18Z.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE DIVING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL               
BRING INCREASING W-SW WINDS INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING             
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL THEN               
SHIFT W-NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE             
TIGHT GRADIENT COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT              
WILL RESULT IN NW TO N GALES TO 35-40 KT ACROSS MOST OF LAKE                    
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE WEST ON WED AS                   
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE              
TO 25 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM                
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH              
BLO 15 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER             
THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TO NEAR 30 KT AGAIN LATE FRI INTO            
SAT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING               
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR:                                               
 GALE WARNING LSZ242 2 PM EDT TUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT.                   
 GALE WARNING LSZ243>246 2 PM EDT TUE THROUGH 6 AM EDT WED.                     
 GALE WARNING LSZ249>251 8 PM EDT TUE NIGHT THROUGH 8 AM EDT WED.               
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR:                                                   
 GALE WARNING LSZ162 11 AM CDT TUE THROUGH 11 PM CDT TUE NIGHT.                 
 GALE WARNING LSZ263-264 11 AM EDT TUE THROUGH 6 AM EDT WED.                    
 GALE WARNING LSZ265 2 PM EDT TUE THROUGH 6 AM EDT WED.                         
 GALE WARNING LSZ266-267 2 PM EDT TUE THROUGH 8 AM EDT WED.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...DLG                                                       
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1048 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN            
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE                
BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH               
EXTENDS FROM A JAMES BAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS KANJ TO THE LOW OVER                  
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. A BROAD RIDGE BLANKETS THE ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE             
SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA AND                  
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN                 
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MINNESOTA             
ARROWHEAD...THEN WEST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.                                      
THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO SOUTHEAST                    
MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONTARIO                  
SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL SOUTHEAST INTO THE THUNDER BAY AREA. THE COLD               
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE WEST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY NOON AND                
INTO CENTRAL U.P. AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.                  
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO             
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY NOON AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.               
THUS Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC             
ASCENT WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SQUEEZE SOME OF THE MOISTURE OUT            
OF THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA THE             
U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN              
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS THE ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT INCREASES. RAIN IS ALREADY ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY OVER               
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MID AFTERNOON TODAY BEFORE RAIN                
SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH THE CANADIAN FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHEN THE RAIN                
MOVES IN...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND            
TO THE NORTHWEST. RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT            
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO 35 KNOTS            
OR GREATER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE DIVING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL               
BRING INCREASING W-SW WINDS INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING             
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL THEN               
SHIFT W-NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE             
TIGHT GRADIENT COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT              
WILL RESULT IN NW TO N GALES TO 35-40 KT ACROSS MOST OF LAKE                    
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE WEST ON WED AS                   
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE              
TO 25 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM                
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH              
BLO 15 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER             
THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TO NEAR 30 KT AGAIN LATE FRI INTO            
SAT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING               
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NEARSHORE AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR:                                               
 GALE WARNING LSZ242 2 PM EDT TUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT.                   
 GALE WARNING LSZ243>246 2 PM EDT TUE THROUGH 6 AM EDT WED.                     
 GALE WARNING LSZ249>251 8 PM EDT TUE NIGHT THROUGH 8 AM EDT WED.               
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR:                                                   
 GALE WARNING LSZ162 11 AM CDT TUE THROUGH 11 PM CDT TUE NIGHT.                 
 GALE WARNING LSZ263-264 11 AM EDT TUE THROUGH 6 AM EDT WED.                    
 GALE WARNING LSZ265 2 PM EDT TUE THROUGH 6 AM EDT WED.                         
 GALE WARNING LSZ266-267 2 PM EDT TUE THROUGH 8 AM EDT WED.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
806 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...RATHER COOL SLUG OF LOW LEVEL AIR(850MB ZERO OVERHEAD             
ON EVENING RAOB) DESCENDING INTO THE CWFA AS COLD MID-UPPER LOW                 
CENTER IN SERN AR MOVING ESEWD EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD          
WITH AN UPDATE TO FORECAST PACKAGE AS HOURLY TEMPS DROPPING OFF A               
LITTLE QUICKER AND HAVE LOWERED MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AT MOST                
LOCATIONS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT STEADIER LIGHT RAINS ACROSS               
THE DELTA FROM 10 PM THRU DAYBREAK ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. ALSO              
NUDGED HIGHS BACK A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AS CORE OF COLD AIR HANGS                 
TOUGH OVER ERN 2/3 MS. UPDATED GRIDS/WEB GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN SENT AND            
ZONES WILL BE COMING. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS            
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:/40/                                                         
SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CLOUDS...LIGHT                    
DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW OVER               
CENTRAL TENNESSEE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN            
ALABAMA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A                
RATHER SHARP EDGE OVER THE WESTERN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA STATE                 
LINES. SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MID-UPPER CLOSED LOW            
OVER THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA STATE LINE. MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON THE             
TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM BUT AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE             
EAST TONIGHT AND OVER MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING               
THE GFS HAS THE LOW OVER SW ALABAMA...THE NAM HAS THE LOW OVER SW               
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW IN BETWEEN OVER SE                        
MISSISSIPPI. FROM THERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR                    
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW FROM THE SW LIMITING RAINFALL. THE BEST RAIN              
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY BELOW AND NORTH OF THE LOW SO               
OUR FORECAST HINGES ON THE POSITION OF LOW. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OVER              
OUR CWA TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST.                  
GREATEST RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CARRIED IN THE             
NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ENDING FROM THE SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. LATEST MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN A            
LITTLE TOO COOL AND BELOW LOWEST 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBER SO HAVE GONE A             
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE SLOWER                  
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WEDNESDAY OF THE UPPER LOW...HAVE TRIMMED SEVERAL             
DEGREES OFF HIGHS IN THE WEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFS                 
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE WEST A LITTLE TOO FAST ALLOWING FOR SOME              
SUN TO WARM OUR PARISHES. HELD MENTION OF RAIN IN OUR SW WEDNESDAY              
EVENING AS THE GFS BEGINS TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE NE A                 
LITTLE FAST. /22/                                                               
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART...I              
DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST.  MAV                   
GUIDANCE CAME IN A GOOD BIT COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY               
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH POPS AS IT`S ABOUT THE FASTEST AT              
DRYING US OUT RAINFALL-WISE THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  WHILE I`M             
NOT BITING OFF ON THIS MUCH COOLER LOWER RAIN CHANCE SOLUTION HOOK              
LINE AND SINKER JUST YET...GIVEN THAT THERE IS DEFINITELY SOME                  
COOLER DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW            
AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I`LL TREND BOTH HIGHS              
AND LOWS THURSDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY                    
FORECASTED...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE TIME BEING.                 
THE SAME GOES FOR POPS...12Z MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH MUCH LOWER               
POPS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.  THE REALLY GOOD DRIER AIR DOESN`T             
APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.  MY FEELING IS THAT AS THIS UPPER LOW            
RETROGRADES TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE SHOULD STILL BE AT LEAST ENOUGH            
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE               
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  ONCE AGAIN AS A RESULT...POPS LOOK            
TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED BUT HIGHER THAN WHAT            
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IN MOST PLACES.                                               
AFTER THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEING TO IMPROVE AREA WIDE AS THE              
UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD UP AND OVER THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE            
EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL ALLOW CLEARING...COOLER...AND            
DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.                       
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND PORTIONS           
OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BEGINNING WITH THE            
WEEKEND. /19/                                                                   
FOR THE WEEKEND...OUR UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND WE WILL               
SEE STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE CENTER OF               
THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST WITH SFC PRESSURES OF                     
1030-1034MB. WE WILL SEE 1025-1028MB BUILD INTO OUR AREA AND THIS               
WILL SERVE TO BRING COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                  
OVERALL...GUID TEMPS LOOK GOOD FROM FRI-TUE...ESPECIALLY HIGHS. I               
DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS DURING THOSE PERIODS TO GET SOME             
LOCATIONS AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO LOWS. THE LARGEST CHANGE FROM GUID             
WAS ON TUE MORNING. GUID WAS ONLY OFFERING CLIMO LOWS IN THE UPPER              
40S. THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RAD COOLING                 
CONDITIONS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S. I DID NOT GET TOO                  
AGGRESSIVE AND ONLY CUT 2-4 DEGREES AREA WIDE. WE COULD SEE LOWER               
40S TO UPPER 30S IF THIS AIRMASS STAYS THE COURSE LIKE THE MODELS               
SUGGEST./CME/                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL                
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ABUNDANT LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE FA. LIFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE             
NORTHWEST AFTER 08Z TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH 15Z WED. THE UPPER LOW             
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS ARE              
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE W SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AS IT REACHES            
E CENTRAL MS AFTER 18Z./40/                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       46  56  43  58 /  30  49  28  25                                  
MERIDIAN      47  55  44  58 /  28  69  55  28                                  
VICKSBURG     46  59  43  60 /  34  32  16  17                                  
HATTIESBURG   47  56  46  60 /  18  39  24  13                                  
NATCHEZ       46  60  42  61 /  16  20  15  12                                  
GREENVILLE    46  59  43  58 /  62  42  17  27                                  
GREENWOOD     46  55  42  57 /  58  58  32  30                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
300 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS...LIGHT                  
DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW OVER               
CENTRAL TENNESSEE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN            
ALABAMA. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A                
RATHER SHARP EDGE OVER THE WESTERN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA STATE                 
LINES. SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MID-UPPER CLOSED LOW            
OVER THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA STATE LINE. MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON THE             
TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM BUT AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE             
EAST TONIGHT AND OVER MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING               
THE GFS HAS THE LOW OVER SW ALABAMA...THE NAM HAS THE LOW OVER SW               
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW IN BETWEEN OVER SE                        
MISSISSIPPI. FROM THERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR                    
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW FROM THE SW LIMITING RAINFALL. THE BEST RAIN              
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY BELOW AND NORTH OF THE LOW SO               
OUR FORECAST HINGES ON THE POSITION OF LOW. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OVER              
OUR CWA TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST.                  
GREATEST RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CARRIED IN THE             
NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ENDING FROM THE SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. LATEST MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN A            
LITTLE TOO COOL AND BELOW LOWEST 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBER SO HAVE GONE A             
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE SLOWER                  
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WEDNESDAY OF THE UPPER LOW...HAVE TRIMMED SEVERAL             
DEGREES OFF HIGHS IN THE WEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFS                 
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE WEST A LITTLE TOO FAST ALLOWING FOR SOME              
SUN TO WARM OUR PARISHES. HELD MENTION OF RAIN IN OUR SW WEDNESDAY              
EVENING AS THE GFS BEGINS TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE NE A                 
LITTLE FAST. /22/                                                               
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART...I              
DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST.  MAV                   
GUIDANCE CAME IN A GOOD BIT COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY               
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH POPS AS IT`S ABOUT THE FASTEST AT              
DRYING US OUT RAINFALL-WISE THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  WHILE I`M             
NOT BITING OFF ON THIS MUCH COOLER LOWER RAIN CHANCE SOLUTION HOOK              
LINE AND SINKER JUST YET...GIVEN THAT THERE IS DEFINITELY SOME                  
COOLER DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW            
AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I`LL TREND BOTH HIGHS              
AND LOWS THURSDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY                    
FORECASTED...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE TIME BEING.                 
THE SAME GOES FOR POPS...12Z MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH MUCH LOWER               
POPS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.  THE REALLY GOOD DRIER AIR DOESN`T             
APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.  MY FEELING IS THAT AS THIS UPPER LOW            
RETROGRADES TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE SHOULD STILL BE AT LEAST ENOUGH            
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE               
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  ONCE AGAIN AS A RESULT...POPS LOOK            
TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED BUT HIGHER THAN WHAT            
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IN MOST PLACES.                                               
AFTER THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEING TO IMPROVE AREA WIDE AS THE              
UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD UP AND OVER THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE            
EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL ALLOW CLEARING...COOLER...AND            
DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.                       
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND THE                
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BEGINNING WITH THE               
WEEKEND. /19/                                                                   
FOR THE WEEKEND...OUR UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND WE WILL               
SEE STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE CENTER OF               
THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST WITH SFC PRESSURES OF                     
1030-1034MB. WE WILL SEE 1025-1028MB BUILD INTO OUR AREA AND THIS               
WILL SERVE TO BRING COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                  
OVERALL...GUID TEMPS LOOK GOOD FROM FRI-TUE...ESPECIALLY HIGHS. I               
DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS DURING THOSE PERIODS TO GET SOME             
LOCATIONS AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO LOWS. THE LARGEST CHANGE FROM GUID             
WAS ON TUE MORNING. GUID WAS ONLY OFFERING CLIMO LOWS IN THE UPPER              
40S. THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RAD COOLING                 
CONDITIONS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S. I DID NOT GET TOO                  
AGGRESSIVE AND ONLY CUT 2-4 DEGREES AREA WIDE. WE COULD SEE LOWER               
40S TO UPPER 30S IF THIS AIRMASS STAYS THE COURSE LIKE THE MODELS               
SUGGEST.                                                                        
LASTLY...LOOKING A BIT BEYOND DAY 7...BOTH THE GFS/EURO ARE SHOWING             
A MORE POTENT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND THE 1ST OF NOV WHICH                
WOULD BRING MORE OF A CANADIAN AIRMASS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST             
THE AREA MIGHT SEE OUR FIRST FREEZE...SOMETIME BETWEEN NOV 2-4. THIS            
WOULD BE A BIT EARLIER THAN NORMAL WHICH IS AROUND NOV 9.  /CME/                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL                
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ABUNDANT LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE. LIFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST              
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH 15Z WED. THE UPPER LOW IS               
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. /22/                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       47  58  43  58 /  30  49  28  25                                  
MERIDIAN      48  56  44  58 /  28  69  55  28                                  
VICKSBURG     47  62  43  60 /  34  32  16  17                                  
HATTIESBURG   48  57  46  60 /  18  39  24  13                                  
NATCHEZ       46  61  42  61 /  16  20  15  12                                  
GREENVILLE    48  59  43  58 /  62  42  17  27                                  
GREENWOOD     48  56  42  57 /  58  58  32  30                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION:22                                                          
LONG TERM: 19/CME                                                               
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1125 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL                  
TENNESSEE WITH THE FRONT TRAILING ACROSS ALABAMA. SATELLITE                     
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MOST            
OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS            
AFTERNOON AND OUR NORTHWEST MOST COUNTIES AS THE LOW DRIFTS CLOSER.             
MAINLY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD                 
COVER. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN                 
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS             
WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THEIR CURRENT READINGS IN             
THE 50S. UPDATES ARE POSTED TO REDUCE POPS AND ADD GUSTS THIS                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN CEILINGS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN              
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ABUNDANT LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE            
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL            
AT ALL SITES AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW CEILINGS AND DRIZZLE PERSISTS                 
ACROSS THE AREA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
201 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...DID AN UPDATE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR                   
TODAY.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                        
DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN THE                
WEST. WIND GUSTS REALLY STARTING TO INCREASE IN THE LBF CWA AND                 
COULD SEE SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH. ALSO DECREASE SKY COVER TO ZERO               
FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS.                                                       
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. CLEAR SKY AND NO VISIBLITY RESTRICTIONS                
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. WIND WILL BE BREEZY THIS              
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN              
AT THIS POINT.                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                          
UPDATE...ZONE UPDATE SENT TO REMOVE MORNING FROST ADVISORY AND                  
FREEZE WARNING.                                                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                          
AVIATION...12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH             
THE DURATION OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS EARLY THIS               
MORNING WILL INCREASE WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE                     
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN DIE DOWN BY        
THIS EVENING AND AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...KGRI COULD SEE A FEW                
SCATTERED CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN              
PLACE HAVE LED TO THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE CWA                
THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S AT ALL OBSERVING                   
SITES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THUS THE GOING            
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. LOOKING AT THE                 
BIGGER PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DATA            
SHOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TX...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW HAVING CUT OFF OVER                 
EASTERN TX/OK AS ADVERTISED. UPSTREAM AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE IS              
SPRAWLING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH                   
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.                                                  
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW            
DAYS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL TURN             
NORTHWESTERLY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF GREAT BASIN SURFACE HIGH              
AND BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING...WHICH             
COMBINED WITH WARMING H85 TEMPS AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER                
RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE REGION...WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER               
60S TO AROUND 70F. SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUN TODAY AS WELL. MID CLOUDS             
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO                
MAKE ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS. A FEW OF THESE MAY WORK ACROSS THE CWA              
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE A FEW HIGH               
THIN CLOUDS SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL BUT OVERALL NOT               
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT               
WITH MILDER TEMPS ON TAP.                                                       
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE                      
ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS A WESTERN                     
OUTLIER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW PROGRESSES THE CUTOFF LOW INTO                 
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE RETROGRADING IT AND PUSHING IT BACK                  
NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND IT THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE                   
WESTERLIES AND PUSHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS               
WEEKEND. HAVE THROWN OUT THE NAM SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG                
OUTLIER. FOLLOWING THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE LOW LOOKS TO                 
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY FAR EAST TO KEEP ALL PRECIP EAST OF THE                     
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE THUS LEFT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.                     
TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY                 
BUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT                   
COOLING AS WE PICK UP AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON AS                
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ABOVE                    
AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TO THE                  
NORTH SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...KNOCKING                  
TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE              
STARVED WITH THE NEXT FRONT...AND HENCE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY            
BLEAK.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HEINLEIN                                                                        
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1218 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN THE               
WEST. WIND GUSTS REALLY STARTING TO INCREASE IN THE LBF CWA AND                 
COULD SEE SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH. ALSO DECREASE SKY COVER TO ZERO               
FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. CLEAR SKY AND NO VISIBLITY RESTRICTIONS               
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. WIND WILL BE BREEZY THIS              
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN              
AT THIS POINT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                         
UPDATE...ZONE UPDATE SENT TO REMOVE MORNING FROST ADVISORY AND                  
FREEZE WARNING.                                                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                          
AVIATION...12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH             
THE DURATION OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS EARLY THIS               
MORNING WILL INCREASE WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE                     
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN DIE DOWN BY        
THIS EVENING AND AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...KGRI COULD SEE A FEW                
SCATTERED CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN              
PLACE HAVE LED TO THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE CWA                
THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S AT ALL OBSERVING                   
SITES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THUS THE GOING            
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. LOOKING AT THE                 
BIGGER PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DATA            
SHOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TX...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW HAVING CUT OFF OVER                 
EASTERN TX/OK AS ADVERTISED. UPSTREAM AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE IS              
SPRAWLING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH                   
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.                                                  
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW            
DAYS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL TURN             
NORTHWESTERLY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF GREAT BASIN SURFACE HIGH              
AND BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING...WHICH             
COMBINED WITH WARMING H85 TEMPS AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER                
RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE REGION...WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER               
60S TO AROUND 70F. SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUN TODAY AS WELL. MID CLOUDS             
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO                
MAKE ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS. A FEW OF THESE MAY WORK ACROSS THE CWA              
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE A FEW HIGH               
THIN CLOUDS SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL BUT OVERALL NOT               
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT               
WITH MILDER TEMPS ON TAP.                                                       
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE                      
ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS A WESTERN                     
OUTLIER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW PROGRESSES THE CUTOFF LOW INTO                 
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE RETROGRADING IT AND PUSHING IT BACK                  
NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND IT THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE                   
WESTERLIES AND PUSHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS               
WEEKEND. HAVE THROWN OUT THE NAM SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG                
OUTLIER. FOLLOWING THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE LOW LOOKS TO                 
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY FAR EAST TO KEEP ALL PRECIP EAST OF THE                     
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE THUS LEFT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.                     
TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY                 
BUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT                   
COOLING AS WE PICK UP AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON AS                
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ABOVE                    
AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TO THE                  
NORTH SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...KNOCKING                  
TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE              
STARVED WITH THE NEXT FRONT...AND HENCE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY            
BLEAK.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HEINLEIN                                                                        
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
919 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...ZONE UPDATE SENT TO REMOVE MORNING FROST ADVISORY AND                 
FREEZE WARNING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                         
AVIATION...12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH             
THE DURATION OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS EARLY THIS               
MORNING WILL INCREASE WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE                     
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN DIE DOWN BY        
THIS EVENING AND AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...KGRI COULD SEE A FEW                
SCATTERED CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN              
PLACE HAVE LED TO THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE CWA                
THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S AT ALL OBSERVING                   
SITES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THUS THE GOING            
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. LOOKING AT THE                 
BIGGER PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DATA            
SHOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TX...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW HAVING CUT OFF OVER                 
EASTERN TX/OK AS ADVERTISED. UPSTREAM AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE IS              
SPRAWLING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH                   
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.                                                  
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW            
DAYS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL TURN             
NORTHWESTERLY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF GREAT BASIN SURFACE HIGH              
AND BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING...WHICH             
COMBINED WITH WARMING H85 TEMPS AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER                
RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE REGION...WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER               
60S TO AROUND 70F. SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUN TODAY AS WELL. MID CLOUDS             
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO                
MAKE ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS. A FEW OF THESE MAY WORK ACROSS THE CWA              
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE A FEW HIGH               
THIN CLOUDS SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL BUT OVERALL NOT               
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT               
WITH MILDER TEMPS ON TAP.                                                       
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE                      
ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS A WESTERN                     
OUTLIER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW PROGRESSES THE CUTOFF LOW INTO                 
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE RETROGRADING IT AND PUSHING IT BACK                  
NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND IT THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE                   
WESTERLIES AND PUSHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS               
WEEKEND. HAVE THROWN OUT THE NAM SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG                
OUTLIER. FOLLOWING THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE LOW LOOKS TO                 
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY FAR EAST TO KEEP ALL PRECIP EAST OF THE                     
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE THUS LEFT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.                     
TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY                 
BUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT                   
COOLING AS WE PICK UP AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON AS                
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ABOVE                    
AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TO THE                  
NORTH SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...KNOCKING                  
TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE              
STARVED WITH THE NEXT FRONT...AND HENCE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY            
BLEAK.                                                                          
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
604 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH            
THE DURATION OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS EARLY THIS               
MORNING WILL INCREASE WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE                     
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN DIE DOWN BY        
THIS EVENING AND AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...KGRI COULD SEE A FEW                
SCATTERED CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN              
PLACE HAVE LED TO THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE CWA                
THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S AT ALL OBSERVING                   
SITES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THUS THE GOING            
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. LOOKING AT THE                 
BIGGER PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DATA            
SHOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TX...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW HAVING CUT OFF OVER                 
EASTERN TX/OK AS ADVERTISED. UPSTREAM AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE IS              
SPRAWLING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH                   
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.                                                  
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW            
DAYS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL TURN             
NORTHWESTERLY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF GREAT BASIN SURFACE HIGH              
AND BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING...WHICH             
COMBINED WITH WARMING H85 TEMPS AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER                
RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE REGION...WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER               
60S TO AROUND 70F. SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUN TODAY AS WELL. MID CLOUDS             
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO                
MAKE ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS. A FEW OF THESE MAY WORK ACROSS THE CWA              
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE A FEW HIGH               
THIN CLOUDS SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL BUT OVERALL NOT               
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT               
WITH MILDER TEMPS ON TAP.                                                       
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE                      
ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS A WESTERN                     
OUTLIER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW PROGRESSES THE CUTOFF LOW INTO                 
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE RETROGRADING IT AND PUSHING IT BACK                  
NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND IT THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE                   
WESTERLIES AND PUSHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS               
WEEKEND. HAVE THROWN OUT THE NAM SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG                
OUTLIER. FOLLOWING THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE LOW LOOKS TO                 
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY FAR EAST TO KEEP ALL PRECIP EAST OF THE                     
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE THUS LEFT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.                     
TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY                 
BUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT                   
COOLING AS WE PICK UP AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON AS                
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ABOVE                    
AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TO THE                  
NORTH SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...KNOCKING                  
TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE              
STARVED WITH THE NEXT FRONT...AND HENCE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY            
BLEAK.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-                 
     046>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.                                           
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-006-017.             
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-018-019.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...WESELY                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION...KB                                                            
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN             
PLACE HAVE LED TO THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE CWA                
THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S AT ALL OBSERVING                   
SITES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THUS THE GOING            
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. LOOKING AT THE                 
BIGGER PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DATA            
SHOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TX...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW HAVING CUT OFF OVER                 
EASTERN TX/OK AS ADVERTISED. UPSTREAM AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE IS              
SPRAWLING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH                   
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.                                                  
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW            
DAYS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL TURN             
NORTHWESTERLY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF GREAT BASIN SURFACE HIGH              
AND BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING...WHICH             
COMBINED WITH WARMING H85 TEMPS AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER                
RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE REGION...WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER               
60S TO AROUND 70F. SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUN TODAY AS WELL. MID CLOUDS             
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO                
MAKE ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS. A FEW OF THESE MAY WORK ACROSS THE CWA              
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEE A FEW HIGH               
THIN CLOUDS SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL BUT OVERALL NOT               
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT               
WITH MILDER TEMPS ON TAP.                                                       
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE                      
ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS A WESTERN                     
OUTLIER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW PROGRESSES THE CUTOFF LOW INTO                 
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE RETROGRADING IT AND PUSHING IT BACK                  
NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND IT THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE                   
WESTERLIES AND PUSHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS               
WEEKEND. HAVE THROWN OUT THE NAM SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG                
OUTLIER. FOLLOWING THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE LOW LOOKS TO                 
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY FAR EAST TO KEEP ALL PRECIP EAST OF THE                     
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE THUS LEFT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.                     
TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY                 
BUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT                   
COOLING AS WE PICK UP AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON AS                
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ABOVE                    
AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TO THE                  
NORTH SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...KNOCKING                  
TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE              
STARVED WITH THE NEXT FRONT...AND HENCE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY            
BLEAK.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE                    
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS EARLY                 
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE                
NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL AGAIN DIE DOWN BY EVENING AND COULD SEE               
A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER 11PM THIS EVENING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-                 
     046>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.                                           
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-006-017.             
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-018-019.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KB/WESELY                                                                       
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
800 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A THREAT FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND                   
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...AS                 
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS. A LARGE               
AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL HEAD NORTHEAST THURSDAY                
NIGHT AND BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...                                     
MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOW TO PULL OUT OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO AM                
PLANNING ON KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SHRA INTO THE EVENING IN THE                 
EASTERN FA. AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO               
THE SOUTHEAST...AS RUC HOLDS ON TO AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                
OH RIVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS                   
TROUGH AND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF COAST                          
STATES...HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP WINDS FOR TONIGHT. LEFT A LINGERING                
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL                   
CONVERGENCE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                     
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN THE LOWER MS                     
VALLEY...BUT WITH ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA VULNERABLE TO               
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE OUTER BANDS OF THIS HIGH.                            
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER               
LOW...RESULTING IN GREAT DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.                  
HAVE GONE WITH AN SREF APPROACH. UPR LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE                   
LOWER TN VALLEY BEFORE PULLING NW AND BECOMING A BROADER TROUGH AS              
IT LIFTS ALONG THE MID MS VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT UP AND                     
ESPECIALLY EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO RECEIVE DEEPER                              
MOISTURE...WHILE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN THE DRIER AIR               
A LITTLE LONGER. SO HAVE KEPT WITH THE TREND OF LOWER CHANCES FOR               
RAINFALL IN THE WEST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
SATURDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A               
MID LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR                    
NORMAL...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON THE POSITION OF THE FEATURE.                       
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPEAR REASONABLE INTO THE EVENING AS THE H5 LOW              
PUSHES OFF TO THE NE.                                                           
SUNDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE             
BUILDS AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.  GENERALLY...DRY CONDITIONS                
WILL PERSIST...WHILE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW                  
NORMAL.  THE LOWS FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL WELL               
INTO THE 30S.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR                
THIS TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND AREAS OF PRECIP HAVE BEEN              
ADVECTING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW                
TODAY. FORECASTING THIS MOISTURE PATTERN IS DIFFICULT SINCE THERE               
IS A GRADIENT BETWEEN MVFR/OCCLY IFR CIGS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND                  
JUST HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NERLY               
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE                
OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT...SO I HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST              
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS TO SEE IF LOW                 
CIGS MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT KCVG.                  
SECOND ITEM OF CONCERN IS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP                    
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH BUILDING                
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS HIGH OVERNIGHT INTO                  
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OCCLY 25KT OR EVEN HIGHER.                                  
FOR THURS...LOW STARTS TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND THE AREA OF MVFR                
CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO                 
ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO ALL AREA TAF SITES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON. BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WILL BE ROUGHLY A 4 HOUR WINDOW               
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS BAND OF H8 WARM AIR ADVECTION                  
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING                
AND WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP SHOULD BE TOO SCATTERED TO                
MENTION ANYTHING MORE THAN A VCSH FOR NOW.                                      
OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY               
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL                                                           
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1120 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...CLOSED UPPER LOW KEEPNG US SHROUDED IN CLOUDS THIS                
MORNING. RAINFALL HAS CERTAINLY SLACKENED OFF TODAY FROM WHAT WE                
SAW EARLIER THIS WEEK AND IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS, OVERALL, WILL REMAIN           
RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.                                                
BOTH THE LATEST RUC AND WRF SHOW A LIKELIHOOD FOR AT LEAST SMALL                
MEASUREABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, AS CLOSED UPPER LOW SINKS           
SOUTHEASTWARD AND DRAGS BAND OF PRECIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE             
MID STATE BY SUNSET.                                                            
EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MOST SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD ESCAPE               
THE RAIN TODAY, DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WON`T RAIN           
AT LEAST A HUNDRETH BY SUNSET TO MESS WITH THE POPS.                            
THUS, FOR NOW, WILL KEEP CURRENT ZFP INTACT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1010 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE FRONT RUNNING FROM CLAY-LAWRENCE COUNTIES WITH GOOD                     
OVERRUNNING RAINS BEHIND IT. SOME AREAS OVER THE W-NW HAVE RECEIVED             
OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. REPORTS OF STREAM                    
FLOODING OVER DECATUR CTY W TN. WILL ISSUE A SMALL STREAM ADVISORY              
FOR BENTON...STEWART...HUMPHRIES...MONTGOMERY AND HOUSTON COUTNIES              
AS MODERATE RAINS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA.                                      
TEMPS BEHIND FRONT IN 50S. RUC HAS RAIN/FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING E              
DURING DAY. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR TEMPS AND OTHER FINE TUNING.                  
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAG                                                                             
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1222 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD COVER             
CONFINED TO ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CIRRUS. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERNS           
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE WIND-RELATED. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS            
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15G25KT AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE                   
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT               
BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE.                        
JOHNSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY NW FLOW THRU A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTINUE TDA...WITH LITTLE OR NO             
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.  NWLY SFC WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD A MORE NLY              
DIRECTION THIS AFTN...WHILE INCREASING AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT TIL           
LATE AFTN.  WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10KT AROUND TIME OF            
SUNSET...REMAINING NWLY OVERNIGHT.  NO STRATUS EXPECTED.  VFR FCST              
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                        
COCKRELL                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING              
TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN EASTERN           
OKLAHOMA. APPEARS THE IS SLOWING DOWN AND DEEPENING...BUT GENERAL               
MOVEMENT IS STILL TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. MODELS INITIALIZING WELL               
AND ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY 00Z           
THIS EVENING. GFS AND EURO HAVE SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST            
24 HOURS WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW. THE NAM IS STILL THE OUTLIER             
KEEPING THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST...BUT IS TRENDING MUCH             
CLOSER TO THE GFS/EURO THAN BEFORE. WITH THAT IN MIND...TRENDED                 
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/EURO OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.                           
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND BY 10 DEGREES OR SO REACHING THE                
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT           
FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SFC WINDS               
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR             
ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS. APPEARS            
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS START TO              
BACK DOWN AND VEER TO THE EAST. THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE                   
PRESENT...SO DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MEX...BUT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL            
CREEP INTO THE 70S. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DECIDED TO PULL ALL THE             
POPS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...OTHER THAN SOME SUB 10 POPS FOR               
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH THE FURTHER WEST NAM              
SOLUTION...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE UPPER PATTERN               
TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A BRIEF RIDGE ON                        
SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO             
THE PANHANDLES. APPEARS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH            
THE FRONT...THEN REBOUND BY 5 DEGREES OR SO ON SUNDAY.                          
OTHERWISE...STUCK CLOSE WITH MEX GUIDANCE.                                      
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
626 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DRY NW FLOW THRU A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTINUE TDA...WITH LITTLE OR NO             
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.  NWLY SFC WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD A MORE NLY              
DIRECTION THIS AFTN...WHILE INCREASING AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT TIL           
LATE AFTN.  WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10KT AROUND TIME OF            
SUNSET...REMAINING NWLY OVERNIGHT.  NO STRATUS EXPECTED.  VFR FCST              
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                        
COCKRELL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING              
TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN EASTERN           
OKLAHOMA. APPEARS THE IS SLOWING DOWN AND DEEPENING...BUT GENERAL               
MOVEMENT IS STILL TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. MODELS INITIALIZING WELL               
AND ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY 00Z           
THIS EVENING. GFS AND EURO HAVE SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST            
24 HOURS WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW. THE NAM IS STILL THE OUTLIER             
KEEPING THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST...BUT IS TRENDING MUCH             
CLOSER TO THE GFS/EURO THAN BEFORE. WITH THAT IN MIND...TRENDED                 
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/EURO OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.                           
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND BY 10 DEGREES OR SO REACHING THE                
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT           
FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SFC WINDS               
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR             
ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS. APPEARS            
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS START TO              
BACK DOWN AND VEER TO THE EAST. THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE                   
PRESENT...SO DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MEX...BUT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL            
CREEP INTO THE 70S. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DECIDED TO PULL ALL THE             
POPS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...OTHER THAN SOME SUB 10 POPS FOR               
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH THE FURTHER WEST NAM              
SOLUTION...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE UPPER PATTERN               
TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A BRIEF RIDGE ON                        
SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO             
THE PANHANDLES. APPEARS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH            
THE FRONT...THEN REBOUND BY 5 DEGREES OR SO ON SUNDAY.                          
OTHERWISE...STUCK CLOSE WITH MEX GUIDANCE.                                      
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                67  43  65  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   5             
BEAVER OK                  70  44  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0  10             
BOISE CITY OK              67  40  70  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0             
BORGER TX                  70  45  68  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   5             
BOYS RANCH TX              71  43  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   5             
CANYON TX                  67  43  67  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   5             
CLARENDON TX               68  44  66  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   5             
DALHART TX                 69  40  71  38  72 /   0   0   0   0   0             
GUYMON OK                  70  42  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0   5             
HEREFORD TX                69  43  67  40  74 /   0   0   0   0   5             
LIPSCOMB TX                70  43  67  39  69 /   0   0   0   0  10             
PAMPA TX                   67  42  65  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   5             
SHAMROCK TX                69  45  68  41  69 /   0   0   0   0  10             
WELLINGTON TX              69  46  68  41  68 /   0   0   0   0  10             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...                  
     RANDALL.                                                                   
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
327 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING              
TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN EASTERN           
OKLAHOMA. APPEARS THE IS SLOWING DOWN AND DEEPENING...BUT GENERAL               
MOVEMENT IS STILL TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. MODELS INITIALIZING WELL               
AND ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY 00Z           
THIS EVENING. GFS AND EURO HAVE SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST            
24 HOURS WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW. THE NAM IS STILL THE OUTLIER             
KEEPING THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST...BUT IS TRENDING MUCH             
CLOSER TO THE GFS/EURO THAN BEFORE. WITH THAT IN MIND...TRENDED                 
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/EURO OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.                           
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND BY 10 DEGREES OR SO REACHING THE                
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT           
FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SFC WINDS               
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR             
ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS. APPEARS            
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS START TO              
BACK DOWN AND VEER TO THE EAST. THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE                   
PRESENT...SO DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MEX...BUT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL            
CREEP INTO THE 70S. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...DECIDED TO PULL ALL THE             
POPS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...OTHER THAN SOME SUB 10 POPS FOR               
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH THE FURTHER WEST NAM              
SOLUTION...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE UPPER PATTERN               
TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A BRIEF RIDGE ON                        
SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO             
THE PANHANDLES. APPEARS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH            
THE FRONT...THEN REBOUND BY 5 DEGREES OR SO ON SUNDAY.                          
OTHERWISE...STUCK CLOSE WITH MEX GUIDANCE.                                      
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                67  43  65  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   5             
BEAVER OK                  70  44  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0  10             
BOISE CITY OK              67  40  70  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0             
BORGER TX                  70  45  68  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   5             
BOYS RANCH TX              71  43  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   5             
CANYON TX                  67  43  67  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   5             
CLARENDON TX               68  44  66  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   5             
DALHART TX                 69  40  71  38  72 /   0   0   0   0   0             
GUYMON OK                  70  42  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0   5             
HEREFORD TX                69  43  67  40  74 /   0   0   0   0   5             
LIPSCOMB TX                70  43  67  39  69 /   0   0   0   0  10             
PAMPA TX                   67  42  65  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   5             
SHAMROCK TX                69  45  68  41  69 /   0   0   0   0  10             
WELLINGTON TX              69  46  68  41  68 /   0   0   0   0  10             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...                  
     RANDALL.                                                                   
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
134 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A FETCH OF ONSHORE MOISTURE INTERSECTING A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL              
ALLOW FOR GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH                     
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY                   
INTO SATURDAY WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY                  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
FOR UPDATE LATER TONIGHT...HAVE ALREADY INC POP GRIDS TO REFLECT                
SHRAS MOVING FROM REIDSVILLE NC TO SAXE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.             
ELSEWHERE...WILL PROB BE REDUCING POPS TO LOW LIKELIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE      
EXTREME WEST CONSIDERING NEWEST RUC AND RLX/LWX RECENT LOCAL WRF.               
AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS WAA REGIME...PRECIP HAVING PROBLEMS MAKING IT             
OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. IT WILL TAKE THE FRONT NOW IN WEST                  
VA...TO REALLY GET PRECIP STARTED. HOWEVER...ITS PASSAGE MAY TAKE               
LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF                
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH DISTURBANCES DUMPING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE               
OF THE TROF TO OUR WEST...THINKING UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE               
AMPLIFIED...LEADING TO LLVL WIND FIELD BACKING TO THE SSE AND SE.               
THIS MAY SERVE TO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS FARTHER WEST THAN                    
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED...PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE FIRST HALF                
OF WEDNESDAY. ALSO...DID TAKE DOWN SKY GRIDS...AS ANY CLOUDS THAT               
POPPED UP DUE TO HEATING WILL CRUMBLE...LEAVING SOME HOLES. LOW                 
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT AT HSP. WITH LESS CLDS IN                 
THE SE PORTION OF CWA TONIGHT...LOWS THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES                 
COLDER...ESPECIALLY AT MTV.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                               
THROUGH THIS PERIOD THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL STALL OVER                   
LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADE INTO ARKANSAS AND KANSAS. WHILE THIS IS                
HAPPENING...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MOVE ON SHORE FROM THE                   
EAST...AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO             
OVER NEW ENGLAND. WHAT WE HAVE SETTING UP FOR THE FORECAST AREA WILL            
BE A PROLONGED FETCH OF MOISTURE OUT OF BOTH THE EASTERN GULF OF                
MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.               
THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING FLOW ALOFT...850 MB WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE            
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT HELPING TO MAXIMIZE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS             
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND THANKS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE                
HIGH TO NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL FORM WITH                   
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY           
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF               
RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM ROUGHLY ROANOKE            
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CAROLINA WITH MAINLY 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCES             
ELSEWHERE. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT AND SO WILL AREAS OF FOG.               
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE EAST WILL BE LIMITED TO 5 DEGREES            
AT BEST. THE BEST TEMPERATURE VARIATION IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE            
AROUND RICHLANDS VIRGINIA AND BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE                 
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AT 850 WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT             
TO IT. HERE A 10 DEGREE SWING WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN LOW AND HIGH             
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
FRIDAY THE WEDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS FIRST A WARM FRONT               
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEN AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST             
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE                    
APPROACHING THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY                
GOOD THOUGH...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIABLE CONCERNING THE SPEED WHICH THE                 
RETROGRADED UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY              
BACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE             
MADE USE OF THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH FOLLOWS BEST WITH THE ECMWF AND              
ENSEMBLE GFS MOS SOLUTIONS REGARDING BOTH PRECIPITATION TIMING AND              
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THIS GUIDANCE TO             
BETTER COLLABORATE WITH OFFICES THAT CHOSE OTHER SOLUTIONS.                     
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY             
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE                 
FRONT POPS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BUT NOT TO ZERO AS WE WILL STILL HAVE            
THE UPPER LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA AND INCREASED NORTHWEST                 
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTEND WITH MAINLY IN THE WEST.                                
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HPC PLACES PARTS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT              
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LOW RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT                 
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. ANY PRECIPITATION              
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO AMOUNT TO A WHOLE LOT GIVEN THIS SCENARIO.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
A MESOSCALE WAVE WORKING THROUGH SW CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS             
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO SW VA/SE WV THROUGH SUNRISE. A NARROW LINE OF             
CONVECTION WORKING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MAY             
BRING A FEW TEMPO SHOWERS TO EASTERN SITES DURING THIS TIME. BEHIND             
THIS FEATURE...CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SOME BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TO HIGH.            
WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TEMPO SHOWERS IN               
THE EAST. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH WITH IFR/MVFR            
POSSIBLE WITH MOUNTAIN RIDGES BEING OBSCURED. VAD WINDS ALSO                    
SHOWING 30+KTS SW FLOW WHILE SURFACE OBS ARE SOUTHERLY AT 6 KTS OR              
LESS. WIND SHEAR PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.                      
ONCE MESOSCALE WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD            
SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN AND POSSIBLY THE CLOUDS. THIS WILL HELP                 
PRODUCE INSTABILITY AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA DURING                   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. BY WEDNESDAY                  
EVENING...STRONG FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING             
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA. DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO SIT OVER                
THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA FOR A                
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.                                                          
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY AND              
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE AREA BELOW VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.              
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST               
COAST.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DS                                                                   
NEAR TERM...KM                                                                  
SHORT TERM...DS                                                                 
LONG TERM...DS                                                                  
AVIATION...RCS                                                                  
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL                  
TONIGHT AND THEN ON HANDLING POPS WITH UPPER LOW THURSDAY NIGHT                 
INTO SATURDAY.                                                                  
WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO ANIMATION SHOWS SHORT WAVE RACING SEWD INTO               
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HELP OF STG UPPER JET. H7 RH PROGS GIVE A                    
GLANCING SHOT OF RH ASSOC WITH TAIL OF VORT INTO 00Z...THOUGH SATELLITE         
TRENDS TEND TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF MID LEVEL DECK AND ANY                     
SPRINKLES WILL STAY NORTH OF CWA. RUC/NAM RH LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER              
THAN GFS IN THIS REGARD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROUGH...NW                
WINDS WILL KICK IN. A 3 OR 4 MB FALL AHEAD OF TROUGH AND 3 MB RISE              
BEHIND...SO PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT                
INTO WED MRNG. IN FACT UPSTREAM WIND GUSTS IN MN RATHER                         
FORMIDABLE. COLD AIR SC FIELD DRIVING SEWD IN WAKE OF VORT. WILL                
BUMP SKY GRIDS INTO PC RANGE TNGT INTO WED MRNG...WITH H8 COOL                  
POOL IN PLACE FOR AT LEAS TTHE MRNG HRS ON WED.                                 
SFC HIGH SETTLES ACRS CWA FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND RIGHT INTO                    
THURSDAY. THE BIG ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE UPPER LOW BEHAVES FROM                  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT HOW QUICKLY                 
THE GFS AND NAM WRAP PRECIP NW INTO THE CWA THU NGT GIVEN THE                   
MODEL PLACEMENT OF UPPER LOW IN ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA VICINITY                  
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE TO                  
HAVE TO WORK OVER AND THE NAM SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE BETTER                      
SATURATION COMES A BIT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM RIDGING IS                
STILL PROGGD TO BE ACRS THE CWA FRI MRNG. HOWEVER THE CONSISTENCY               
AND CONSENSUS OF BOTH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF TO BRING PCPN NW INTO THE               
CWA THU NGT IS THERE AND WE ARE IN A COLLABORATIVE STATE WITH                   
RESPECT TO THE GRIDS. MAY LOWER POPS A SMIDGE HOWEVER WITHIN THE                
RANGE OF TOLERANCE. CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY               
AS GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE UPPER LOW NORTH AND THEN EAST...HOWEVER               
THE ECMWF TRACK IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE GFS AND                    
REALLY ONLY GIVES US A GLANCING SHOT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MUCH               
LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE 00Z GFS WAS PAINTING. NOW THE 12Z                 
GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LOW AND SHIFTS IT TO UR EAST BI               
FRI EVENING. THIS IS THE FIRST SOLUTION SHOWING THE QUICKER                     
MOVEMENT AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS A LITTLE SLOWER SOLUTION PER THE                 
ECMWF. SREF POPS SUGGEST BRINGING THE QPF IN A LITTLE SLOWER AND                
LINGERING A BIT LONGER WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE                  
UPPER SYSTEM.                                                                   
DRIER AIR WORKING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER JET TO                  
OUR NORTH AND OVERALL NO INFLUX OF MOISTURE. SFC HI WILL BE                     
DOMINANT AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWAST AND SET UP A MILDER AND AT              
LEAST INITIALLY DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW. SFC LOW APPCHS BY TUE BUT                   
STILL WELL WEST OF HERE AND 100-500 MEAN RH RATHER LOW.                         
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH                    
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL DRAG A SURFACE FRONT               
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 00-06Z WED. NORTHWEST SURFACE                
WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE WEDENSDAY.             
ONLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS 8 TO 12 THSD FT AGL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SCT TO BKN. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER                 
SOUTEHRN WISCONSIN DUE TO DRYNESS OF AIR AND FACT THAT BEST                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO REMAIN NORTH. DAYTIME HEATING WED WILL GENERATE              
SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DUE TO MIXING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE..NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND SUFACE FRONT LATER TONIGHT WILL                 
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IS SPEED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY               
MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS                
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD THEN GET UP OVER 4 FEET AWAY            
FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
515 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID-UPR RIDGE                    
STRETCHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PLAINS TO THE SW                
STATES. THIS BROAD RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TROFS OVER WRN CANADA/PAC NW             
AND OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FEATURE WHICH WILL AFFECT              
OUR WX FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND IS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF COAST             
STATES. WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION SKIES                
HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER FAR            
ERN UPR MI AND ALONG NRN LAKE MI COUNTIES. LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT             
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND             
FCST AREA...WITH LOWER 20S REALIZED OVER SOME OF THE WRN                        
INTERIOR.                                                                       
WITH MID-LVL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE AND A WARM ADVECTION SRLY FLOW              
AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROF...LOOK FOR 900 MB TEMPS OF 6-8C TO            
MIX TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S                
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN HALF.             
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MIN                        
PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS OF .25 INCH OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE               
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ENHANCED. WHILE THERE MAY BE                
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE S LATE...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH                   
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR INLAND TEMPS TO LOWER TO THE UPPER 20S/LWR              
30S WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...IN LINE WITH              
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                        
FRI...MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON                            
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NNE AND ITS                  
REMNANTS PHASE WITH NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL                
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW SHOULD DRIFT INTO SRN IL BY FRI EVENING               
AND THEN TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SAT IN RESPONSE TO NRN                  
BRANCH SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE UPR GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME. WITH             
DRY AIRMASS/RIDGING INITIALLY IN PLACE EARLY FRI FELT COMPELLED TO              
TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN TO ONLY THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE            
CWA FOR FRI MORNING...THEN SPREAD SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO THE REST OF              
THE EAST FRI AFTERNOON AS BETTER MOISTURE AND WEAK Q-VECT CONV MOVE             
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
AS DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH LOWER MI FRI                           
NIGHT...CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW BEHIND WILL INCREASE OVER UPR MI                     
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE KEPT IDEA OF INCREASING POPS                 
ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT                  
POSSIBLE AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER TO 0 TO -3C TOWARD 12Z SAT.                      
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL TO -6/-7C BY 00Z SUN ALONG WITH            
FREEZING LVLS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO                  
GRADUALLY MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM THE WEST ON SAT. BETTER CHC            
OF SNOW SAT WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WRN AND CENTRAL UPR            
MI AS FLOW BACKS NW THROUGH THE DAY. LONGER FETCH ACROSS ERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR MAY MODERATE LOW-LVLS AND KEEP PREDOMINANT PCPN-TYPE MORE              
RAIN THERE. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BACKING THROUGH THE             
DAY AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC...WOULD NOT EXPECT A LOT             
OF ACCUMULATING RAIN OR SNOW AND DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT 30/40 PCT              
ALONG THE NRN TIER COUNTIES.                                                    
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PD WITH RDG/LLVL DRY             
AIRMASS DOMINATING. FLOW TDAY WL SHIFT TO THE S WITH RDG AXIS TO THE            
E.                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN            
ONTARIO TODAY COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED WINDS ABOVE 25 KNOTS OVER FAR             
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OPEN LAKE. OTHERWISE...WINDS NEXT 24-36 HRS            
WILL STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION SLOWLY PRESSES            
EAST. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT            
INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE                 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE              
WEST TO SET UP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES              
SUBSTANTIAL TOO WHICH INCREASES LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWING                
STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC OR AT LEAST C-MAN AND SHIP                 
LEVEL. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MOSTLY            
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH LATER                    
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE            
REGION. WINDS MAY EXCEED 25 KNOTS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF STRONG COLD             
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
438 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY                
THIS MORNING.  THE RESULTANT WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LEADING            
TO BANDS OF LAKE INDUCED STRATO CU SHIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER             
OF COUNTIES...FROM HURON COUNTY DOWN THROUGH MACOMB COUNTY.  THIS               
CLOUD DECK KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED IN THESE LOCALES...WHILE TOWARD               
THE WEST CLR SKIES ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO DRIFT GENERALLY INTO              
THE 35-40F RANGE.  OVERALL COVERAGE OF FROST THIS MORNING REMAINS IN            
QUESTION AS A 4-8 KT NERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS.  NONETHELESS...GIVEN              
CURRENT SATELLITE AND THERMAL TRENDS...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LOCATIONS              
WITH FROST THIS MORNING TO WARRANT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY FOR                 
AREAS NORTH OF M-59 THROUGH 9 AM.  THE EXCEPTIONS APPEAR TO BE                  
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS HAVE                            
ENCROACHED...AND WILL THUS DROP THE ADVISORY HERE.                              
FOR TODAY...SOUTHEAST LOWER MI WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE                
SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING             
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT STRATUS WILL               
LIKELY MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING...AS THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGH                 
WEAKENS AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST.  OTHERWISE...A VERY DRY            
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE FOR FULL                 
INSOLATION TODAY.  DESPITE THIS...AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL BE SLOW             
WITH THE PREDOMINANT GRADIENT MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.                
THUS...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN                 
YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S.                 
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES SLIGHTLY                 
COOLER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SLOWLY                     
LIFTING NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY                  
WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE FROM THE              
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG              
THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER BEGINS LATE THURSDAY                   
EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT RAIN IS                
POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS BUT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR THAT              
WAS IN PLACE EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER                  
INVERSION HEIGHTS TODAY AND ALSO SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE REMAINING               
BELOW 850MB...LIKELY HANDLING THE CONTRIBUTION OF NORTHEASTERLY                 
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WITH                 
THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO              
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR                
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.                                                          
THEN ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH                     
VORTICITY ADVECTION LIFTING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY AND A MID LEVEL             
DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON.                
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REALLY STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER LOWER MICHIGAN            
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SETTING UP OVER THE THUMB AND                 
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO STRENGTHENS AS THE            
850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY            
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN LARGE             
SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO               
PHASE WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT             
TRACKS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO LAKE HURON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A                 
SLIGHT CONCERN THAT THIS UPPER LOW MAY TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD            
TRACK...IT SEEMS WORTHWHILE OF AT LEAST A LIKELY POP IN SOME AREAS              
AND MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION               
IMPROVE.                                                                        
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST             
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.                        
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER VERY MUCH ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED            
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER DEGREE             
FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IF HIGH                 
PRESSURE IS ABLE TO BUILD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THEN A            
HARD FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD                   
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S OUTSIDE OF THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.                        
MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST THREE MORE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE            
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE MADE               
FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME AS THE FEATURES IN               
QUESTION ARE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND NOT BEING SAMPLED WELL YET             
BY RAOBS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE WAVES AND CURRENT                 
FORECAST HANDLES THAT WELL WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON                 
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH TODAY...WHILE            
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A                   
EASTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  THE STRONGEST PRESSURE                
GRADIENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS...LEADING TO                 
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND ST CLAIR TODAY.  WAVES            
WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG LAKE ERIE AS WINDS TRAVERSE THE LONG                   
LAKE FETCH.  THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT INTO                 
TONIGHT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.  MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL              
EXIST ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON TODAY AND TONIGHT...             
BUT GIVEN THE EASTERLY FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OVER 3                 
FEET.                                                                           
WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SLACKEN ON FRIDAY AS A LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGHEN             
AGAIN BY SATURDAY AS THIS LOW PULLS NORTH AND WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE            
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS                
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE A POSSIBILITY             
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY               
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 103 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007 /                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO BY            
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI                    
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AVIATION                   
WEATHER WHICH WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST...WITH                
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE             
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING              
SOME LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU INTO SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE                  
NIGHT. BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS...CLOUD BASES SHOULD              
REMAIN BETWEEN 3500 FT AND 4500 FT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...FROST ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-         
     MIZ068-MIZ069...UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.                                       
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY.                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.                                  
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MR                                                                 
LONG TERM....KRV                                                                
MARINE.......MR                                                                 
AVIATION.....CONSIDINE                                                          
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
103 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO BY            
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI                    
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AVIATION                   
WEATHER WHICH WILL BE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST...WITH                
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE             
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING              
SOME LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU INTO SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE                  
NIGHT. BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS...CLOUD BASES SHOULD              
REMAIN BETWEEN 3500 FT AND 4500 FT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1019 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER UPPER MI IS FORECAST TO                
BUILD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE              
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO VEER FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.                 
THE LATEST IR IMAGE SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU                  
ACROSS LAKE HURON. EXPECT SOME OF THESE CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO THE               
THUMB REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS VEER.                  
MAY ALSO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND AS                     
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON GETS DUCTED UNDERNEATH THE STRONG                      
INVERSION BASED AROUND 4500FT ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. HAVE                     
THEREFORE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER                
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE THUMB REGION.                      
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH              
CLEARING TONIGHT TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST MIN TEMPS. THUS               
THE FROST ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 631 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007                             
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                    
CLOUD DECK THAT DEVELOPED AS THE SUN TRIED TO COME OUT TODAY WILL               
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE. PERSISTENT HIGH/MID CLOUDS FROM               
THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH END OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN U.S. HAVE STEADILY BEEN SHIFTING EAST AS FLOW ALOFT HAS                
TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT              
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE. CONCERN            
THEN TURNS TO FROST POTENTIAL WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING                   
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER             
30S OUTSIDE OF URBAN METRO DETROIT...WHICH IS JUST COOL ENOUGH TO               
PROMOTE FROST FORMATION. MODEL DATA INDICATES WINDS WILL SLACKEN                
OFF SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF            
THE STATE WHERE THEY WILL START TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE FROM THE                  
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MISSISSIPPI. WILL ISSUE            
A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION             
BEING OVER WASHTENAW...WAYNE...LENAWEE...AND MONROE COUNTIES. THINK             
WE WILL JUST SEE AREAS OF FROST THERE.                                          
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                          
CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWEST TO MISSOURI             
LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS            
THE AREA...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DRY             
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS             
WORK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL DELAY THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION            
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.                                 
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS             
THIS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AS IT IS RE-ABSORBED             
BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT               
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MODELS             
STILL VARY A FAIR AMOUNT ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN BUT             
THE GENERAL SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE CWA TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE              
OF A SIGNIFICANT SHIELD OF RAINFALL THAT LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE                  
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND ON               
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A DEFORMATION AXIS THEN CROSSES THE AREA WITH              
THE ACTUAL UPPER SYSTEM DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.                                
ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA IN BEHIND THIS LOW ON            
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS             
BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO               
AROUND 50. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR SO             
REINFORCING THE COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...AND MAINTAIN LOWS                
GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 40...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.                      
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS OVER SAGINAW BAY               
AND THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR                    
CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES            
OVER INNER SAGINAW BAY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY                          
EVENING...SUBSIDING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 8 PM.             
FOR THE REST OF THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WINDS WILL                    
DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS AND A LONG FETCH             
OVER THE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD HIGHER THROUGH             
THE EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.                        
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE OVER LAKE ERIE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE            
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE                     
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE                    
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. A LONG EASTERLY FETCH OVER THE LAKE                 
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WAVE GENERATION. THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT            
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...FROST ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-         
     MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070...UNTIL 9 AM                     
     THURSDAY.                                                                  
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM FRIDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....CONSIDINE                                                          
UPDATE.......CONSIDINE                                                          
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
720 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS                                           
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID-UPR RIDGE                    
STRETCHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PLAINS TO THE SW                
STATES. THIS BROAD RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TROFS OVER WRN CANADA/PAC NW             
AND OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FEATURE WHICH WILL AFFECT              
OUR WX FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND IS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF COAST             
STATES. WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION SKIES                
HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER FAR            
ERN UPR MI AND ALONG NRN LAKE MI COUNTIES. LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT             
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND             
FCST AREA...WITH LOWER 20S REALIZED OVER SOME OF THE WRN                        
INTERIOR.                                                                       
WITH MID-LVL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE AND A WARM ADVECTION SRLY FLOW              
AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROF...LOOK FOR 900 MB TEMPS OF 6-8C TO            
MIX TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S                
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN HALF.             
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MIN                        
PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS OF .25 INCH OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE               
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ENHANCED. WHILE THERE MAY BE                
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE S LATE...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH                   
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR INLAND TEMPS TO LOWER TO THE UPPER 20S/LWR              
30S WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...IN LINE WITH              
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                        
FRI...MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON                            
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NNE AND ITS                  
REMNANTS PHASE WITH NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL                
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW SHOULD DRIFT INTO SRN IL BY FRI EVENING               
AND THEN TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SAT IN RESPONSE TO NRN                  
BRANCH SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE UPR GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME. WITH             
DRY AIRMASS/RIDGING INITIALLY IN PLACE EARLY FRI FELT COMPELLED TO              
TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN TO ONLY THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE            
CWA FOR FRI MORNING...THEN SPREAD SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO THE REST OF              
THE EAST FRI AFTERNOON AS BETTER MOISTURE AND WEAK Q-VECT CONV MOVE             
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
AS DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH LOWER MI FRI                           
NIGHT...CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW BEHIND WILL INCREASE OVER UPR MI                     
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE KEPT IDEA OF INCREASING POPS                 
ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT                  
POSSIBLE AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER TO 0 TO -3C TOWARD 12Z SAT.                      
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL TO -6/-7C BY 00Z SUN ALONG WITH            
FREEZING LVLS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO                  
GRADUALLY MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM THE WEST ON SAT. BETTER CHC            
OF SNOW SAT WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WRN AND CENTRAL UPR            
MI AS FLOW BACKS NW THROUGH THE DAY. LONGER FETCH ACROSS ERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR MAY MODERATE LOW-LVLS AND KEEP PREDOMINANT PCPN-TYPE MORE              
RAIN THERE. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BACKING THROUGH THE             
DAY AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC...WOULD NOT EXPECT A LOT             
OF ACCUMULATING RAIN OR SNOW AND DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT 30/40 PCT              
ALONG THE NRN TIER COUNTIES.                                                    
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THIS FCST PD WITH RDG/LLVL             
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE AT KSAW. AS                 
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...MVFR STRATOCU OVER LAKE MI COULD                
ADVECT INTO KSAW LATER THIS MORNING. DRY AIR MAY JUST ERODE THE                 
CLOUD AS IT COMES TOWARD KSAW BUT DECIDED TO INCLUDE SCT-BKN MVFR               
CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN            
ONTARIO TODAY COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED WINDS ABOVE 25 KNOTS OVER FAR             
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OPEN LAKE. OTHERWISE...WINDS NEXT 24-36 HRS            
WILL STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION SLOWLY PRESSES            
EAST. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT            
INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE                 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE              
WEST TO SET UP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES              
SUBSTANTIAL TOO WHICH INCREASES LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWING                
STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC OR AT LEAST C-MAN AND SHIP                 
LEVEL. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MOSTLY            
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH LATER                    
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE            
REGION. WINDS MAY EXCEED 25 KNOTS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF STRONG COLD             
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION/MARINE...JLA                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
907 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE                    
EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE                 
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM/...                                                    
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING                
NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL PLUME TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW              
CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. THIS WAVE HAS                   
SHIFTED TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN             
SEEN IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS                     
TROPICAL CONNECTION CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WITH MODELS INDICATING             
THE DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE REMAINING TO THE               
WEST. AS EARLY MORNING SHORTWAVE EXITS THE 11 UTC RUC INDICATES                 
ANOTHER WAVE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL WORK ITS WAY                    
NORTHWARD AND ENTER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AROUND 21 UTC.                 
AT THE SURFACE OCCLUDE FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR ILM AND IT EXTENDS                 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO               
REMAIN IN REGION AND AND RUC INDICATES THE FRONT PULLING BACK TO THE            
WEST THIS AFTERNOON PLACING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR FROM MURRELLS INLET             
THROUGH WHITEVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE.  WITH THE INTERACTION OF THIS               
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SHOW HOURLY POPS SCATTERED UNTIL              
LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES AFTER 21 UTC.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                 
CONFIDENCE A LITTLE BETTER AS GUIDANCE BEGINS TO CONVERGE MORE ON               
A SINGLE SOLUTION. H5 CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA                
LIFTS GENERALLY NNW THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER                  
VALLEY WITH A GOOD BIT OF WOBBLING ALONG THE WAY. ON SATURDAY LOW               
REJOINS THE WESTERLIES WHEN IT LIFTS FURTHER AND BECOMES ABSORBED               
WITHIN ADVANCING LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL                     
FINALLY LEAD TO A COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY AND MIN TEMPS SAT NIGHT                
IN THE 50S...FINALLY APPROACHING CLIMO. UNTIL THEN WARM AND MOIST               
SELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS AND UNSETTLED                
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP                
LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH AMPLE               
MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO FRONT FEEL CONFIDENT IN CATEGORICAL POPS              
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIP                   
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON                
DISTRIBUTION OF QPF THOUGH...ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST                    
EVERYWHERE WILL MEASURE AT LEAST ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH...THERE               
IS NO WAY TO TELL WHERE THE BULK OF IT WILL FALL.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA SUNDAY...COLDER AND DRIER AIR                 
WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL TRENDED POPS DECREASING               
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRIEST                
DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME CONTRAST BETWEEN 06Z RUN               
AND 12Z RUN OF GFS FOR FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 06Z RUN MOVED                   
FRONT THROUGH AREA WITH COLD DRY AIR THROUGH MID WEEK AS SFC HIGH               
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT LATEST RUN SUGGESTS BUCKLING OF                  
COLD FRONT AFTER IT PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY PRODUCING A SURFACE                
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST INTO MID WEEK. ALSO MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE EARLY PART               
OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD ADD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND                    
MOISTURE TO PROVIDE FOR SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH                
MID WEEK...BUT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFF SHORE IN COASTAL                  
WATERS. THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO FIRST HALF OF NEXT                  
WEEK...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW. GFS CUTS OFF                     
ANOTHER LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY.                         
TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR CLIMO AROUND 50 FOR MIN TEMPS AND 70                  
FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH EARLY PART OF WEEK. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY                 
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN INCREASING                      
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
COLD FRONT NEAR ILM MAY STILL MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST EARLY                
TODAY...BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY...THEN MOVE BACK TO             
THE WEST TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FLO/LBT                
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF FRONT AND ILM/CRE/MYR SHOULD BE ALONG OR             
EAST OF FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT TODAY VFR EXPECTED WITH TEMPO                  
MVFR/SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WEST OF FRONT IFR THIS MORNING             
IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR LATER THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THERE            
IS A GOOD CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON                
LBT/FLO. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE GENERALLY VARIABLE OR SOUTHEAST TO             
THE EAST OF THE FRONT...AND FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO THE WEST OF              
THE FRONT. AFTER 06Z RAINFALL INCREASES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...                 
ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.                                               
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPO IFR                  
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM/...                                                     
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD              
TO THE EAST OF GEORGETOWN.  AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION               
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE             
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH. SEAS CONTINUE TO RANGE            
OVER 6 FT ON DURATION OF SOUTHERN WINDS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER. WILL             
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE A BIT THIS                  
AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO WIND DIRECTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR            
FRONTAL POSITION AND MOVEMENT.                                                  
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                  
BRISK SELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SEAS OF 6 FT OR SO THROUGH THE FIRST              
PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS...SO WILL BE                  
EXTENDING SCA FOR AMZ 250-252 OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FROPA                    
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS OFFSHORE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD                
TO RAPID DECLINE IN SEAS. MODEST COLD SURGE WILL LAG WELL BEHIND                
THE FRONT AND MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...PERHAPS                 
INCREASING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 4 OR 5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT.                     
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTER GRADIENT                
ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WHICH IN               
TURN WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MORE               
ALONG SHORE N-NE FLOW UP TO 20 KTS OFF SHORE WHICH SHOULD KEEP                  
SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE NEAR SHORE AND 6 FT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER              
OFF SHORE. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN THE EARLY PART OF WEEK               
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW THROUGH MID               
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...REK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS                                                             
SHORT TERM...REK                                                                
AVIATION...MRR                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
228 PM MDT THU OCT 25 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE MAX TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY             
NEXT WEEK AND IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT           
AND SATURDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUING FROM            
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW IS           
BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN PORTION             
OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE                
NORTH AND WEST. RATHER STRONG AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS PUSHING           
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LARGE HEIGHT FALLS            
ARE OCCURING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS BEING             
FLATTENED AND PUSHED TO THE EAST. A LOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND SYSTEM TO            
THE NORTHWEST.                                                                  
AT JET LEVEL...NO SERIOUS INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS. AT MID LEVELS...             
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER THAN THE                      
UKMET/ECMWF IS SOME PLACES AND THE UKMET/ECMWF DOING BETTER THAN THE            
GFS IN OTHER PLACES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE                 
BETTER THAN THE UKMET. TEMPERATURES HAD THE WORST PROBLEMS. TO THE              
SOUTH THE UKMET/ECMWF WERE THE BEST. HOWEVER AS MOVED WELL TO THE               
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...THE MODELS BECAME TOO COOL JUST               
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...             
THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WERE DOING WELL. WILL BE USING A BLEND OF THE               
MODEL OUTPUT SINCE THERE WAS TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM.                  
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL TIMING.                
BY 12Z...THE MODELS IN GENERAL ARE IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF               
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WINDS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT ACROSS THE                    
ENTIRE AREA AROUND 12Z WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP              
PRETTY GOOD. SO SOME LOCATIONS COULD START OUT FROM A CHILLY                    
TEMPERATURE. THE UKMET IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER.             
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE RUC13 JUST BEHIND THEM.              
THE SREF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF.                             
SO HAVING A FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST HALF TO START THE DAY IS NOT                 
UNREASONABLE. FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA NOT TOO               
LONG AFTER 18Z. CLOUD COVER STARTS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST                
DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SO                
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO WILL SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SUN. WILL TEND            
TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINS. WILL ALSO GO              
A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AS WELL FOR THE MAXES.                            
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE SAME PICTURE AS             
YESTERDAY IN REGARDS TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE              
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT THAT ICE IS STILL NOT IN THE COLUMN BUT IT IS            
GETTING CLOSER. THE LIFT IS VERY WEAK ALOFT UNTIL THE JET MOVES                 
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH             
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CUT            
DOWN THE AREA OF SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE TAKEN            
IT COMPLETELY OUT.                                                              
IN ADDITION TO COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS DURING THE DAY...           
IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY                 
ACCORDING TO THE SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COOL AND NEAR              
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.                                                     
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER             
06Z. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...SOME RETURN FLOW STARTS BUT WINDS                 
REMAIN LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY                 
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINS.                                                        
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND START GETTING RETURN            
FLOW ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN AND MODELS INDICATE              
DIFFERENT AMPLITUDE AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF IS                     
BROADER/STRONGER AND MORE OF A WEST NORTHEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.           
THE GFS HAS MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE RIDGE WITH THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE           
WEST...AND LEAVES THE AREA MORE IN A NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST               
FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF IS WARMER AT THE SURFACE THAN THE            
GFS. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN WHICH MAY COUNTERACT THE RECYCLED COOL             
AIR AT THE SURFACE. WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.                    
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AGAIN SAME ISSUE WITH THE RIDGE                
POSITION AND STRENGTH OCCUR ON MONDAY BUT ARE NOT AS BAD. THE ECMWF             
HAS THE BROADER RIDGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH             
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS PUSHES A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH                  
THROUGH. MODELS DO NOT REALLY MOVE THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY THROUGH             
AS IT EITHER HANGS UP OR WASHES OUT. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS WARMER.                 
CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT...LIKE THE WARMER SOLUTION...BUT AM LEARY            
OF BOUNDARY POSITION AND STRENGTH. SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY           
NIGHT LOOKS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS IS                   
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ON TUE. HOWEVER..THIS              
IS NOW THE OUTLIER AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A H5 RIDGE OVER               
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C. AS A             
RESULT...HIGHS FOR TUES WERE INCREASED INTO THE 70S. A COLD FRONT IS            
STILL EXPECTED WED...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS            
ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. FORECAST FAVORS THE FASTER SOLUTIONS BRINGING           
THE FRONT IN ON WED MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING IS DELAYED...              
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE CHANGED ESPECIALLY TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ON               
WED. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE            
ADVECTION...THEREFORE ONLY VERY LOW POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST.                   
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.                 
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 15 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE             
BY 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE               
NORTHWEST BY ABOUT 10-12Z...BRINGING SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL                       
CLOUDS...POSSIBLY A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MORE LIKELY AT KMCK THAN               
KGLD...AND WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH.                                
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER/SFJ/BLM                                                                  
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE               
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAPPED FOR THE              
TIME BEING UNDER THE RIDGE...A MIDLEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE LWR                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE W...A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE TILT TROF                 
EXTENDS FROM NRN MANITOBA TO OREGON. IT IS THIS TROF AND ITS                    
INTERACTION WITH THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SYSTEM THAT WILL BE OF              
INTEREST FOR THE WEATHER HERE FRI/SAT. CLOSER TO HOME...OVERWATER               
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS NEAR LAKE                 
MICHIGAN FROM KMNN TO KESC AND KISQ LAST NIGHT THRU EARLY AFTN...BUT            
MODERATING AIRMASS AND MIXING OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT HAS WORKED TO             
DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS RECENTLY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS               
BEEN THE RULE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY.                                       
WITH E-W SFC RIDGE AXIS LINGERING ACROSS UPPER MI AND WITH A MIN                
PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS OF 1/4 TO 1/3RD OF AN INCH OVER THE AREA FOR            
A PORTION OF THE NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ENHANCED UNDER             
CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE S              
LATE...STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GO AT OR BLO              
THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE IN MANY LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S/LWR 30S                
SHOULD BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.                                     
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE NW            
BEGINNING TO PICK UP MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY               
TONIGHT/FRI. ALL THE MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO SE MISSOURI FRI WHILE               
TROF OVER THE NW STATES MOVES TO MT AND THE DAKOTAS. WHILE THERE IS             
A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND                 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...FORCING REALLY IS MEAGER FRI. AT THIS                   
POINT...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY MUCH FROM INHERITED FCST WHICH ONLY              
HAD SLIGHT CHC POPS EXPANDING NW TO ROUGHLY A MUNISING/KIMT LINE IN             
THE AFTN WITH CHC POPS CONFINED TO THE KISQ/KERY VCNTY.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(SAT NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS/TYPE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.                      
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE                   
EVOLUTION AND INTERACTION OF THE SRN MS VALLEY CUTOFF AND THE NRN               
STREAM SYSTEM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE WESTERN GREAT                
LAKES. DEFORMATION AND 800-600 MB FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN                  
STREAM MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH MAINLY THE SE PORTION OF              
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY BTWN 06Z-18Z. 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AND                  
ANOTHER BAND OF FGEN WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WRN CWA WITH THE NRN                  
STREAM SHRTWV. UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 300 MB            
JET INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL ALSO AID LARGE SCALE ASCENT. HOWEVER...THE            
BEST MOISTURE (PWAT AROUND 0.80 INCH) WHILE MORE LIMITED MOISTURE TO            
THE WEST (PWAT AROUND 0.50 INCH WITH LITTLE INFLOW) WILL LEAD TO                
LIGHT PCPN WITH MORE SCT COVERAGE. THE NAM/GFS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS            
(AOB 1500 FT AGL) AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS THRESHOLDS SUGGESTS THAT            
POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR MIX WITH SNOW WEST WOULD OCCUR                  
TOWARD 12Z SAT. 850 MB TEMPS TO NEAR -4C WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR                
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV SWEEPS THROUGH THE              
AREA THE PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS TO -8C WILL GIVE LAKE-H8 DELTA/T VALUES TO              
AROUND 17C.                                                                     
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...LAKE EFFECT PCPN FOR NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS WILL            
PERSIST TIL WINDS BACK OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                               
MON-THU...THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY CLOSE INTO MON               
WITH THE TIMING/POSITION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER              
GREAT LAKES. THE BEST QVECTOR CONV AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT               
WITH THE 850-700 MB FRONT SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE ERN CWA. THE CAA             
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED WEAKER. SO...POPS FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT            
WERE REDUCED AND LEFT AS -SHRA. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER              
SHRTWV THROUGH SRN CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED WITH A               
SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT OR WED. THE SLOWER 00Z                  
ECMWF...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENS MEAN...WAS PREFERRED. THIS                
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY CAA AND             
LAKE EFFECT PCPN WED NIGHT INTO THU. MDLS HAVE TRENDED A BIT                    
STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING 850 MB TEMPS OF -10C INTO THE                
AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES                
RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLR            
AT KCMX. AT KSAW...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THRU TONIGHT...THEN            
SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN MID CLOUDS OR STRATOCU WITH BASES AOA 4KFT WILL             
ARRIVE LATE FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES LIFTS N TOWARD LWR MI.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES SAT. A             
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI AFTN AND NIGHT AND THEN            
LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE THRU THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES                  
TOWARD QUEBEC FRI NIGHT AND SAT. STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION W             
OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN            
THE LOW PRES TO THE E AND HIGH PRES OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL RESULT IN             
INCREASING N TO NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TEMP                 
PROFILE BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER THE WATER DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY                
COLD AIRMASS...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN               
TOWARD THE LAKE SFC. END RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF N TO NW GALES             
SAT INTO SAT EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON                    
AFTN/EVENING MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER NW GALE OR NEAR GALE EVENT OVER ERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
140 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS                                           
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT)...                                           
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID-UPR RIDGE                    
STRETCHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PLAINS TO THE SW                
STATES. THIS BROAD RIDGE IS FLANKED BY TROFS OVER WRN CANADA/PAC NW             
AND OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FEATURE WHICH WILL AFFECT              
OUR WX FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND IS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF COAST             
STATES. WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION SKIES                
HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER FAR            
ERN UPR MI AND ALONG NRN LAKE MI COUNTIES. LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT             
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND             
FCST AREA...WITH LOWER 20S REALIZED OVER SOME OF THE WRN                        
INTERIOR.                                                                       
WITH MID-LVL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE AND A WARM ADVECTION SRLY FLOW              
AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROF...LOOK FOR 900 MB TEMPS OF 6-8C TO            
MIX TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S                
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN HALF.             
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MIN                        
PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS OF .25 INCH OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE               
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ENHANCED. WHILE THERE MAY BE                
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE S LATE...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH                   
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR INLAND TEMPS TO LOWER TO THE UPPER 20S/LWR              
30S WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...IN LINE WITH              
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                        
FRI...MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON                            
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NNE AND ITS                  
REMNANTS PHASE WITH NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL                
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW SHOULD DRIFT INTO SRN IL BY FRI EVENING               
AND THEN TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SAT IN RESPONSE TO NRN                  
BRANCH SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE UPR GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME. WITH             
DRY AIRMASS/RIDGING INITIALLY IN PLACE EARLY FRI FELT COMPELLED TO              
TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN TO ONLY THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE            
CWA FOR FRI MORNING...THEN SPREAD SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO THE REST OF              
THE EAST FRI AFTERNOON AS BETTER MOISTURE AND WEAK Q-VECT CONV MOVE             
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
AS DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH LOWER MI FRI                           
NIGHT...CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW BEHIND WILL INCREASE OVER UPR MI                     
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE KEPT IDEA OF INCREASING POPS                 
ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT                  
POSSIBLE AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER TO 0 TO -3C TOWARD 12Z SAT.                      
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL TO -6/-7C BY 00Z SUN ALONG WITH            
FREEZING LVLS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO                  
GRADUALLY MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM THE WEST ON SAT. BETTER CHC            
OF SNOW SAT WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WRN AND CENTRAL UPR            
MI AS FLOW BACKS NW THROUGH THE DAY. LONGER FETCH ACROSS ERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR MAY MODERATE LOW-LVLS AND KEEP PREDOMINANT PCPN-TYPE MORE              
RAIN THERE. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BACKING THROUGH THE             
DAY AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC...WOULD NOT EXPECT A LOT             
OF ACCUMULATING RAIN OR SNOW AND DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT 30/40 PCT              
ALONG THE NRN TIER COUNTIES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES                
RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLR AT               
KCMX. AT KSAW...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THRU TONIGHT...THEN               
SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN MID CLOUDS OR STRATOCU WITH BASES AOA 5KFT WILL             
ARRIVE LATE FRI MORNING/AFTN AS LOW PRES LIFTS N TOWARD LWR MI.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN            
ONTARIO TODAY COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED WINDS ABOVE 25 KNOTS OVER FAR             
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OPEN LAKE. OTHERWISE...WINDS NEXT 24-36 HRS            
WILL STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION SLOWLY PRESSES            
EAST. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT            
INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE                 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE              
WEST TO SET UP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES              
SUBSTANTIAL TOO WHICH INCREASES LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWING                
STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC OR AT LEAST C-MAN AND SHIP                 
LEVEL. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MOSTLY            
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH LATER                    
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE            
REGION. WINDS MAY EXCEED 25 KNOTS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF STRONG COLD             
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1244 PM CDT THU OCT 25 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS. LARGE                 
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING ON NWRN FRINGE OF UPPER                 
LOW HAS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AS IT ENCOUNTERED DRY AIR OVER MO/IL.                
850MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT ILX AND SGF WERE 23C AT 12Z THIS                  
MORNING. PAST TWO RUNS OF THE RUC DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN MID                  
LEVEL FRONTOGENSIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE THE CWA BY                 
21Z...SO HAVE HELD ONTO THE LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                 
ADJUSTED CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE GRIDS...AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS                
ARE A BASED ON RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS.                                           
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT BOTTOMED OUT JUST                 
NORTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA AROUND 01Z LAST NIGHT AND THE CENTER IS                 
ALREADY STARTING TO WOBBLE BACK TO THE NORTH. ALL SHORT RANGE                   
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY                   
MORNING IN BRINGING THE LOW CENTER UP THROUGH THE LOWER                         
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE BOOTHEEL BY THAT TIME. WHILE MODEL                  
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...THE                       
DIFFERENCES ARE MINOR AND SHOULDN`T AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE              
SURFACE SIGNIFICANTLY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE                     
LOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS COOL AND DAMP THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST                
OF THE AREA. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE                
AS MUCH RAIN AS SOUTHERN PORTIONS...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH EVEN UP TO THE HANNIBAL                 
AND QUINCY AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY STAY FAIRLY LIGHT              
UP THERE...PERHAPS NOT EVEN REACHING 1/4 INCH...BUT THE SOUTHERN                
3/4 OF THE CWFA SHOULD GET A GOOD SOAKING RAIN OVER THE NEXT 48                 
HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.                                                
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED...GOING             
FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT HANDLES THIS WELL SO HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE               
CHANGE IN THIS RESPECT.  SINCE THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME TO A                
BETTER CONSENSUS I`VE RATCHETED UP THE POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL               
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST                
ILLINOIS THROUGH FRIDAY.  RAIN SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END ON                 
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY SOME SPRINKLES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY            
MORNING.                                                                        
IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY COOL FOR THE WEEKEND AS A COLD CANADIAN                   
AIRMASS DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.  850MB TEMPS FALL            
TO NEAR OR BELOW 0C DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT.  HAVE                 
TRENDED TEMPS DOWNWARD OUT OF THE 60S ON SUNDAY FOR THIS REASON.                
MONDAY MORNING COULD BE THE COLDEST WEATHER WE`VE SEEN THUS FAR THIS            
FALL ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AREAS IN THE OZARKS IF THE RIDGE AXIS              
DRIFTS DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  FORECAST            
CONTINUES TO LOOK COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.             
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...                                                             
LARGE AREA OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS HAS SPREAD INTO KSUS/KSTL FROM                
THE SOUTHEAST THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH                
THESE CIGS HAS DECREASED RAPIDLY IN AREAL EXTENT THE PAST FEW                   
HOURS BECAUE IT IS ENCOUTERING DRIER AIR...THOUGH DO EXPECT SOME                
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REFLECTED                
THIS IN THE TAFS. BECAUSE OF THE DRIER...DO NOT EXPECT THE MVFR                 
CIGS TO REACH KCOU/KUIN UNTIL AFT 00Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO                    
LOWER...AND DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AFT 06Z WITH ADDITIONAL               
RAIN OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo