FXUS04 KWBC 260639
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
239 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 26/1200 UTC THRU MAY 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY1...

...OK ENEWD THRU THE OH AND TN VLYS INTO THE CNTRL APLCHNS...

MDL QPFS ARE IN BTR AGREEMENT THIS RUN THAN DURG THE DAY
SHIFT..ADDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THIS PARTICULAR FCST. 
HOWEVER..MANUAL DAY 1 QPF IS STILL LEANING TWDS THE HVIER ETA
QPF SOLN..ESP PTNS OF THE OH AND TN VLYS..GIVEN THE HI MSTR
THAT WL BE AVBL AND THE FACT THAT EVEN THE HVIER QPF SOLN
PAST SVRL DAYS HAS BEEN UNDERDONE.   GRIDDED DATA SHOWS PWS
POOLING TO GTR THAN 1.75 INCHES JUST S OF THE FNTL
BNDRY..PARTICULARLY FM ERN AR/SERN MO INTO KY AND NRN TN.  
THIS HI MSTR..ALG WITH S/WVS MOVG ALG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
WLYS..AND A MODEST WSWLY LLJ..SHLD SUPPORT THE SWATH OF HVY
TO ISOLD EXCESSIVE RAINS FM SRN MO/NRN AR ENEWD INTO THE
MID/LWR OH VLY AND NRN PTNS OF THE TN VLY.   AREAL AVG RNFL
AMTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE..BUT WITH ISOLD HVIER
TOTALS PSBL.   AGAIN..PREFERENCE IS THE HVIER ETA QPF SOLN
HERE.


...MID ATLC STATES...

WELL DEFINED S/WV NOW ENTERING WRN WV WL MOV GENLY EWD INTO
NRN VA BY THE START OF THIS PD AND LIFT MORE ENEWD OFF THE
MID ATLC CST BY WED AFTN.  MDLS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SYS..AT LEAST MASS FIELD-WISE..ALTHO THE GFS QPF SOLN LOOKS
A BIT TOO HVY..AS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.   THUS..WL LEAN
TWDS THE LGTR ETA QPF HERE..AND EVEN THO SYS WL BE MOVG THRU
IN THE MRNG HRS..THERE IS ENUF INSTABILITY AND MSTR IN
PLACE..AS PER ETA FCST OF MID 30 K INDICES..TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CNVCTN..WITH SOME 0.50-1.00 INCH RNFL AMTS
LIKELY..ESP NRN MD INTO NRN DE.

...PAC NW...

THE STG MID/UPR LVL TROF MOVG SEWD FROM THE GLFAK TWDS B.C. 
WL HELP TO MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY STG ONSHORE WLY FLO INTO THE
DURG THIS PD.   SYS HAS ALSO TAPPED SIGNIFICANT SUB-TROPICAL
MSTR FM AN AREA WELL NW OF HAWAII...BRINGING PW VALUES NR
1.50 INCHES TWDS TWDS THE WA AND OR CSTS.  GIVEN THE STG
ONSHORE FLO AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES...TRENDED TWD THE
HVIER ETA QPF SOLN..AND XPC SOME GTR THAN 1 INCH RNFL AMTS
FOR THE WA/OR CSTL RANGES AND THE SRN WA/NRN OR
CASCADES..WITH LGTR RAINS SPREADING WELL INLAND INTO THE NRN
GT BASIN. 


...NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY...

FNTL BNDRY DROPPING SEWD THRU THE REGION SHLD FOCUS MORE
ORGANIZED CNVCTN NRN MN INTO NRN WI/U.P. OF MI THIS PD..BUT
RNFL AMTS SHLD RMN GENLY ON THE LGT SIDE IN WHAT WL BE A
MODEST MSTR REGIME..WITH HIER PWS TIED UP WELL S IN THE SRN
PLAINS.   MANUAL QPF IS A BLEND BTWN THE ETA AND GFS QPF
SOLNS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 
24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 452757 465745 479728 490718 496705 495680 484655 471645 
      462645 452650 435663 421669 405670 386678 375688 370703 
      372717 374727 374738 369752 364765 365771 366779 367785 
      365791 354817 348833 347841 347851 347863 346878 348893 
      347917 345930 342940 339952 335963 328985 324995 320004 
      319010 321016 326023 335024 354009 363000 369993 375984 
      381973 386961 389952 391940 393920 397898 397867 400842 
      402834 405825 415805 422794 428785 436775 443767 452757 
 0.01 535216 539202 539196 539190 537182 534175 531169 526163 
      523158 522154 519150 515148 509146 506143 502142 497140 
      494135 489130 483125 480122 475120 472120 473116 477112 
      476102 467102 459093 456089 450089 446089 443088 437088 
      435089 432089 427086 424087 425092 430096 429100 427101 
      424105 424110 424117 426120 429123 434121 437122 438126 
      433136 431147 432156 432161 431168 428173 425176 424180 
      423188 424194 428198 433203 432210 427215 422218 419222 
      418228 416233 414238 414242 417247 422252 427255 434257 
      442258 454256 466258 475260 482266 487274 492281 496287 
      501290 505289 510286 514281 517277 519272 521266 521259 
      520250 518240 515233 510222 506212 507208 509207 512208 
      519215 523221 529222 534218 535216 
 0.01 503961 503927 505901 504871 504843 503831 502819 498811 
      492801 484802 476809 469820 461837 454858 448870 443884 
      438895 434906 430916 428923 428929 429939 429949 424958 
      419967 416971 417975 422979 427981 433984 436984 442984 
      447982 459978 465978 469982 471988 473997 475008 479024 
      485039 490051 494054 500052 507050 511049 514042 515030 
      513009 511997 507980 503961 
 0.25 505263 507255 506250 506244 505237 503228 502221 499215 
      489200 484194 481193 479195 476198 471204 465209 449214 
      442216 437218 433220 432223 432228 435231 437234 436238 
      435243 439246 444248 450248 467251 476255 485259 493263 
      498266 503266 505263 
 0.25 495891 494874 489858 487852 488849 487840 485838 482840 
      479849 474861 470870 467874 462878 457886 452897 450902 
      451909 453912 455912 462910 465910 467917 467926 470935 
      474945 476950 479954 483958 485960 488959 491955 493947 
      494934 495928 495918 495891 
 0.25 492180 495174 495168 495161 494157 490149 487145 483143 
      480147 477148 473147 471142 466140 460140 456142 454144 
      448150 447161 445170 442181 439189 439198 443200 447199 
      451196 457189 461185 468182 472182 476184 479186 484186 
      487185 492180 
 0.25 420704 420697 416693 411690 406687 402686 393690 389695 
      386701 385705 385714 387719 391723 393728 392732 387738 
      385743 379758 377767 377775 378793 376798 372803 362813 
      357830 355838 354846 354858 355896 354904 354914 352925 
      349940 343959 339973 338987 340997 343999 347997 351992 
      356984 364973 369964 376950 379943 382933 386917 387905 
      389885 390866 395799 396791 398784 403773 404764 404757 
      405747 402735 408733 412730 414721 414716 416711 420704 
 0.25 456105 455105 453101 453100 451101 450105 450108 449109 
      449110 452113 455109 456105 
 0.50 497227 496219 496217 491211 488210 483208 480208 476209 
      473211 466213 461213 457215 440218 438221 439226 441228 
      446228 450230 443236 443241 445243 448244 453245 471247 
      480250 485251 487247 479230 480226 484226 489228 495229 
      497227 
 0.50 490920 490914 488912 485909 484904 484895 483891 479890 
      479883 477881 475885 473894 473904 474916 478921 481919 
      483914 487915 489920 490920 
 0.50 486165 484160 479156 474153 472150 469147 467145 464145 
      461146 459149 457152 456156 457159 458163 460165 463166 
      466167 468169 471170 475169 481168 484168 486165 
 0.50 454189 456186 458184 460183 463181 464176 462174 460174 
      457173 455171 454169 452168 450170 450173 450176 451178 
      450182 448182 447185 447188 449190 451190 453190 454189 
 0.50 395766 395761 393759 392759 389760 388761 387765 387766 
      388769 390772 390773 393773 395770 395768 395766 
 0.50 387813 386807 384805 376807 368813 365816 363820 359834 
      358843 357852 357870 358890 357906 355925 352940 346958 
      345966 345975 346981 349983 354978 361966 369950 375938 
      378928 381920 384903 385894 385883 385866 385855 387847 
      388839 388829 387813 
 1.00 480212 477212 474215 473216 473218 475218 480218 483217 
      483215 482212 480212 
 1.00 457224 458225 460226 462227 463226 465223 464220 464217 
      462217 460218 458219 456219 454218 453218 451220 448221 
      446221 444222 444223 445225 447225 448225 452224 455224 
      457224 
 1.00 466239 464236 461235 458234 455234 454235 452236 449238 
      448238 449238 451240 454241 457241 459241 460240 463239 
      466239 
 1.00 380828 377822 374819 372820 366826 364835 362847 361858 
      361873 362898 362912 361926 359935 356948 357951 359948 
      366937 370928 374917 377908 379895 380888 379881 377867 
      379855 379842 380828 
 1.50 373839 370837 367841 365853 364864 364875 364879 365885 
      367893 367899 366904 367910 371906 374898 376893 375886 
      374880 372873 371866 371858 373850 373839  
 
$$