AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                            
 941 PM PST WED DEC 27 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...REMOVE PRECIP FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA/S TONIGHT AND                   
 MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...AS PRECIP DIMINISHES OVER THE DISTRICT...WINDS WILL              
 CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEM THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. A +120KT JET                 
 MAX CONTINUES TO SHIFT ONSHORE AS OBSERVED ON RUC40 AND GOES HIGH              
 DENSITY WINDS. THEREFORE...AS THE JET CORE SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD             
 ...SUBSIDANCE WILL TRANSER STRONG WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE                    
 SURFACE. SURFACE OBSERVATION ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO INDICATE                 
 THIS DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF WINDS AS SANDBERG...JUST SOUTH OF                    
 FRAZIER PARK...REPORTED WIND SPEED GUSTS UP TO 61 MPH. WITH WINDS              
 ON THE RISE THIS EVENING...WILL ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO                 
 REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM ON THURSDAY. AGAIN...WILL REMOVE THE             
 MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...BUT MAINTAIN THE PRECIP             
 OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...THE SNOW LEVEL WAS                 
 NEAR 3500-4000 FEET WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING AT TEJON PASS.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                         
 AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION TO BEGIN ON JANUARY 1, 2007                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM PST WED DEC 27 2006/                        
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL             
 BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVE. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BACK SIDE ALONG           
 WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDS ACROSS THE                
 REGION...ESPECIALLY THE KERN MTNS/DESERTS...WHERE A HIGH WIND                  
 WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES. REMAINING SHOWER           
 ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE OVER BY THIS EVE...EXCEPT FOR A              
 FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS OVERNITE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL               
 MOVE TOWARD THE COAST TONITE AND THURS...THEN IT MOVES INLAND THURS            
 NITE AND FRI. THIS WILL BRING DRY WX TO THE REGION WITH MODERATING             
 TEMPS. RATHER DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOVING IN THURS AND               
 THURS NITE. THIS WILL BRING FROST POTENTIAL BACK TO THE VALLEY.                
 SINCE THE INBOUND AIRMASS IS NOT OF ARCTIC ORIGIN...A HARD FREEZE IS           
 NOT ANTICIPATED. THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA INTO SAT FOR                    
 CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE              
 AND FRI NITE SHOULD SEE LESS FROST PROBLEMS.                                   
 LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY GOOD MODEL                 
 AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TO              
 BEGIN THE PERIOD. BUT THEN THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE REGARDING SHORTWAVE           
 ENERGY APPROACHING THE NORCAL COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SCENARIOS                
 RANGE FROM JUST SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE TROUGH               
 MOVING THROUGH THE DISTRICT AND CLOSING OFF AROUND SOCAL. GIVEN THIS           
 LARGE SPREAD WILL DEFER FROM MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE             
 EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. INTERESTINGLY...A COUPLE DAYS AGO THE GFS           
 INDICATED LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIDGE AND THE GEM TRACKED THE LOW               
 RIGHT OVER CENTRAL CA. NOW THEY HAVE ESSENTIALLY SWAPPED IDEAS.                
 CONSENSUS DOES DEVELOP AGAIN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE                  
 REBUILDING INTO THE AREA. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND               
 CLIMO WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY THEN REBOUNDING TUESDAY.            
 AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THRU             
 12Z THURSDAY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS             
 WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR EXCEPT FOR               
 LOCAL MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND                    
 ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY.  FOR SPECIFIC                         
 DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL...AND              
 TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ095-098-099.                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MOLINA/BINGHAM/DCH                                                             
 WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                            
</pre> ca                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                             
 806 PM MST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 EXTREMELY CHALLENGING WEATHER SYSTEM OCCURRING AND IN THE MAKING.              
 REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWED THE PRECIPITATION HAD DIMINISHED                    
 QUICKLY...EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF AREAS IN FREMONT AND TELLER                   
 COUNTIES...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO. MIDLEVEL "DRY" SLOT MOVED               
 INTO SOUTHERN CO...PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND KILL ALL                     
 PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND "SEEDER FEEDER" FOR HEAVY SNOW                     
 POTENTIAL. LIKE WE HAVE SAID ALL ALONG...THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT             
 WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES. "WAVE 2" OF PRECIPITATION IS NOW                    
 DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM IN RESPONSE TO A                     
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM AND ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT                
 LOW STILL OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM PER WATER VAPOR                   
 IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. THIS AREA OF                         
 PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CO LATER TONIGHT. THE                  
 00Z/29 WRF12 IS LEANING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE RUC.              
 SO...WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION PICKUP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF                   
 SOUTHERN CO... ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS             
 SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE               
 SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS TONIGHT...TOO. IT STILL APPEARS THE                        
 PRECIPITATION WILL SHUTDOWN AGAIN DURING FRI. HOWEVER...IT WILL                
 PICKUP AGAIN LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT ACROSS              
 THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE "WAVE 3" OF THE                        
 PRECIPITATION EVENTS. 00Z/29 WRF12 IS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE H7               
 AND H5 LOW TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY                
 SAT/SAT NIGHT. DEFORMATION CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD               
 BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS AS NICE TROUGH OF WARM AIR                  
 ALOFT(TROWAL) DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. HEAVY SNOW COULD RETURN TO                    
 SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ALSO...PRESSURE               
 GRADIENT WILL PICK UP ACROSS EASTERN CO FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.           
 THERE COULD BE 1-2 FEET OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS             
 FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS 15-30 MPH WITH                 
 GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WOULD CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS               
 SOUTHEAST CO. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS            
 THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES LIKE             
 THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SO...PLAN TO UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH             
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AFTER                 
 MIDNIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AGAIN...THE HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER               
 EVENT WILL PROBABLY COME IN WAVES FROM THE SAME STORM...SO JUST                
 RAN THE WARNING FOR 54 HOURS CONSIDER THE SLOW NATURE OF THE                   
 STORM AND TRIED NOT TO GET CUTE WITH IT. NOW...HOW FAR WEST WILL               
 THE 3RD WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM GET                 
 TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS IS ANOTHER                  
 CHALLENGE FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...WILL NOT                
 ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR I-25 CORRIDOR AND OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS             
 FOR FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SO THERE IS NO CONFUSION AND WILL                  
 MAINTAIN AROUND 50 PERCENT POPS...HOWEVER...SOMETHING TO                       
 WATCH.  (METZE)                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY                  
 FOR COZ089-093>099.                                                            
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ059-062-064.                        
 HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-063-               
 065>068-072>080-083-087-088.                                                   
 SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ085-               
 086.                                                                           
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ081-082-084.                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                             
 448 PM MST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED             
 THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOBBLING OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND                   
 SOUTHWEST NM. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE              
 PARENT LOW. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW WAS             
 ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CO AND A COUPLE MORE ARE OVER EASTERN               
 NM. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND IS                
 SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CO LATER TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR              
 ANALYSIS HAD THE GREATEST SNOW COVERAGE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR                
 AND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. ALREADY RECEIVED 1 FOOT                    
 REPORTS IN THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS...AND               
 IT IS STILL SNOWING. BROAD AREA OF SNOW HAS BEEN OVER MUCH OF                  
 FREMONT COUNTY WHICH IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING HEAVY SNOW WARNING                 
 CRITERION. WILL ADD THE LOWER ELEVATION FREMONT COUNTY ZONES...                
 076...077...AND 083 IN THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING. I HAVE ALSO                     
 ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW ADVISORY               
 NUMBERS.                                                                       
 WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THE CURRENT FORECAST BY MIDEVENING AND                
 SEE HOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST NM EVOLVES.               
 METZE                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ089-093>099.               
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ059-062-064.                        
 HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-063-               
 065>068-072>080-083-087-088.                                                   
 SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ085-               
 086.                                                                           
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ081-082-084.                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                        
 750 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC                
 ANALYSIS IS THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CROSSING INTO WESTERN TEXAS.                  
 SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ONGOING TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND              
 SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ONGOING TO THE EAST ACROSS                  
 PORTIONS OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER                     
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL            
 OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGING WILL            
 BE FLATTENING OUT AND MOVING EAST AS SYSTEM TO THE WEST NUDGES EAST            
 OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.                                                     
 SURFACE RIDGING STILL IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SHORT            
 TERM. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM TEXAS LOW INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL            
 GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIONS/LIGHTING JUST NOW BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT           
 ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.                                                           
 LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES THIS EVENING SHOWING AFTERNOON CU-FIELD                
 DISSOLVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE                  
 FORECAST AREA AND HAVE UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO REPRESENT THESE                
 P-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MORE IN THE WAY                
 OF CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS AND THESE MAY TEND              
 TO EXPAND BACK WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS DECK TRIES TO              
 DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS AND                         
 SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 WITH THE DEWPOINT UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WE ARE            
 LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO                
 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE MAV IS TRYING TO             
 DEVELOP SOME VERY LOW CIGS/VIS FOR OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL TAF SITES.              
 NOT BUYING INTO THE REAL LOW VISIBILITIES JUST YET...AT LEAST NOT IN           
 A WIDESPREAD NATURE. CURRENT SITUATION FAVORS A LOW CIGS EVENT                 
 RATHER THEN DENSE FOG. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL BE ADDING PATCHY                 
 (NON-DENSE) FOG/MIST TO THE GRIDS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE ACROSS OUR           
 EASTERN                                                                        
 ZONES.                                                                         
 FORECAST THINKING BEYOND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HASN`T CHANGED MUCH              
 THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED           
 COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF               
 COAST WITH SHOWERS/TSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF IT.                 
 SATURDAY SHOULD END UP A MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREAS WITH AN               
 INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF OVERSPREADS OUR              
 SKIES. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR WESTERN PANHANDLE ZONES              
 AND UP INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...BUT MUCH OF THE QPF IN THESE AREAS             
 SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.             
 SYSTEM REALLY LOOKS TO SLOW IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESS DURING THIS TIME           
 FRAME AND SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY TO                
 REACH THE BIG BEND/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE             
 BULK OF THE MOISTURE FOR EASTERN AREA WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY                 
 NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...A                   
 WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT ACROSS OUR WARNING AREA DOES NOT APPEAR                
 LIKELY AS BEST DYNAMICS/SHEAR SET UP TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. EVEN               
 SO...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BIGGEST THREAT MAY            
 END UP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT             
 OF THE FRONT AND TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. IT IS A BIT EARLY TO            
 PIN DOWN AN EXACT TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS BUT PERSONS PLANNING             
 OUTDOOR NEW YEARS EVE ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE            
 FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST EXPECTED WITH             
 THIS EVENINGS ISSUANCE. WINDS REMAIN RIGHT ABOUT AT LOW END CAUTION            
 LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN IN THIS CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.           
 WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FOOT CAUTION RANGE AS WELL ACROSS THE               
 OFFSHORE LEGS AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH                   
 SATURDAY.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 THE 00Z TAF SET IS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE 18Z AS DEW POINTS           
 HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 50S. WINDS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE            
 CONDITIONS MORE CONDUCIVE TO A LOW CEILING EVENT AS OPPOSED TO DENSE           
 FOG. WE DID INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR VSBY, BUT RESTRICTED LIFR            
 TO THE NORMALLY FOGGY VLD DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO NEARBY SWAMPS.               
 CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SAT MORNING WITH MVFR                    
 CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY. VFR LEVEL STRATUS CAN BE                 
 EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL              
 HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AL...NONE.                                                                     
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 FL...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...WOOL                                                   
 PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                        
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 1006 AM EST THU DEC 28 2006                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...CURRENT IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME STRATOCU           
 OFFSHORE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE LOW            
 LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF GA/FL SO               
 WILL BEGIN TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ESP ALONG COASTAL GA THIS              
 AFTERNOON. MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND OVERHEAD WILL BEGIN             
 TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE           
 A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND AS A RESULT WILL SEE A           
 SEA BREEZE START TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE             
 ZONES...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE             
 ATLANTIC RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS               
 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY E TO NE AOB 10 KT WHILE THE               
 OUTER GA WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KT. THE RUC ALONG WITH THE               
 SCATTEROMETER IS SHOWING A HINT OF A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING                 
 ALREADY BUT THIS FEATURE SHOULD NOT INTERFERE WITH THE SHORT TERM.             
 ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY INC SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS BASED ON           
 THE CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND THE WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.           
 CLOUDS WILL BEGIN ROLLING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH                
 SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A SEA BREEZE WILL START TO DEVELOP               
 LATER TODAY AND WILL SEE WINDS OUT OF THE SE LESS THAN 10 KT.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 REV                                                                            
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 1033 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                    
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 WILL BE MAKING MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST IN SOUTHEAST IL TO ADD             
 THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A PERSISTANT            
 BAND OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN IL IS EXPECTED TO            
 AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN                
 SOUTHERN IL REPORTED VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES THE PAST FEW HOURS.             
 THE NAM/WRF ALSO HINTS AT VERY WEAK IN SE/ERN IL CONTINUING INTO               
 THIS AFTERNOON...LENDING SOME CREDENCE TO CONTINUING THIS WEAK AREA            
 OF LIGHT RAIN.                                                                 
 FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL WILL NOT MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE              
 FORECAST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE            
 AFTERNOON WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY IN AND OUT OF           
 THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TARGET DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...SO            
 ANOTHER DAY IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE IS IN STORE FOR CENT IL.              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET START TO NEW YEARS WEEKEND... BUT THE PERIOD            
 OF HEAVIEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK NARROWER... AND THE MAX QPF               
 POTENTIAL ALSO APPEARS TO BE DROPPING... GOOD NEWS FOR AREA RIVERS.            
 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                           
 WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE           
 NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL THIS MORNING.  STRONG JET MAX IS WRAPPING IN ON            
 THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW... EVIDENCED BY WAVE CLOUDS OVER THE             
 SIERRA MADRES IN CENTRAL MEXICO.  FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN              
 PACIFIC HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN               
 INTO THIS SYSTEM SO FAR... AND NAM/GFS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER                
 MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT GET DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM UNTIL LATER              
 SATURDAY AS IT HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER           
 THE GULF EVEN SHOWS FAIRLY DRY AIR DOWN THERE.  PERHAPS YET ANOTHER            
 FACTOR GOING AGAINST THE EARLIER PREDICTIONS OF HIGHER QPF.                    
 THE SLOWING TREND HAS SETTLED DOWN SOMEWHAT... WITH THE                        
 GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC GEM ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION             
 OF THE SYSTEM... AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE LOW RIGHT NOW IS           
 BASICALLY STALLED... BUT THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED... AND THUS FAR THE            
 MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SITUATION WELL... WHICH LENDS SOME              
 INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING.                                           
 STILL APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING RATHER EARLY... AND AS A            
 RESULT... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL HAVE A DECENT                  
 EASTERLY COMPONENT RIGHT UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS WILL TEND             
 TO KEEP DRIER AIR IN PLACE... WITH THE REALLY JUICY GULF AIR TENDING           
 TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-42 HOURS.  IT WILL TEND TO             
 POOL ALONG THE FRONT IN TIME... AND THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ACROSS            
 KANSAS.  THIS NARROW MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE FRONT FURTHER SUPPORTS           
 THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE MAX QPF IN A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW... WITH              
 RELATIVELY ANEMIC PRECIP COVERAGE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE                  
 STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                     
 SREF POPS... AND BUFKIT GFS/NAM TIME HEIGHT X-SECTS SHOW THIS NARROW           
 WINDOW OF PRECIP QUITE WELL... AND IT APPEARS THAT FOR MUCH OF THE             
 CWA... IT WILL BE CONFINED TO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...                 
 LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.                              
 HAVE PUT A LITTLE MORE DETAIL INTO THE POP GRIDS NOW... WITH 6 HOUR            
 CHUNKS REPRESENTING THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  TENDED TO             
 SUPPRESS POPS PRIOR TO MAX FORCING DUE TO EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE AND            
 LOW QPF.                                                                       
 WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WE SHOULD SEE           
 LESS AND LESS OF A DIURNAL TREND.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE                 
 EXHIBITED QUITE A RANGE BASED ON SKY COVER.  AT 08Z PIA WAS 46                 
 DEGREES UNDER A 4KFT OVERCAST DECK... WHILE CMI WAS 33 DEGREES AND             
 CLEAR BELOW 12KFT.                                                             
 MIXED CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS MAX TEMPS A LITTLE               
 BIT... BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF LOW/MID 50S IS ON TAP.  ROUGHLY           
 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.                                                     
 LONG TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...                                              
 GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS KICKING OUR UPPER LOW OUT LATE MONDAY... BUT           
 SO FAR APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT IS QUITE VIGOROUS               
 WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM THE                
 CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  NAM IS BY FAR THE SLOWEST MODEL... AND SHOWS               
 LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN FROM UP NORTH BY             
 +84HRS.  ECMWF IS A HAPPY MIDDLE GROUND AT THIS POINT... WITH JUST             
 ENOUGH OF A KICKER DROPPING IN TO MOVE OUR UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT             
 PRECIP CHANCES OUT BY TUESDAY.  THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR             
 NOW.  THE RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE BY THE ECMWF... AND THE GENERAL              
 UNRELIABILITY OF THE NAM BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS WEIGHS HEAVILY INTO             
 THIS DECISION.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MILLER/HARDIMAN                                                                
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 309 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET START TO NEW YEARS WEEKEND... BUT THE PERIOD            
 OF HEAVIEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK NARROWER... AND THE MAX QPF               
 POTENTIAL ALSO APPEARS TO BE DROPPING... GOOD NEWS FOR AREA RIVERS.            
 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                           
 WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE           
 NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL THIS MORNING.  STRONG JET MAX IS WRAPPING IN ON            
 THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW... EVIDENCED BY WAVE CLOUDS OVER THE             
 SIERRA MADRES IN CENTRAL MEXICO.  FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN              
 PACIFIC HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN               
 INTO THIS SYSTEM SO FAR... AND NAM/GFS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER                
 MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT GET DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM UNTIL LATER              
 SATURDAY AS IT HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER           
 THE GULF EVEN SHOWS FAIRLY DRY AIR DOWN THERE.  PERHAPS YET ANOTHER            
 FACTOR GOING AGAINST THE EARLIER PREDICTIONS OF HIGHER QPF.                    
 THE SLOWING TREND HAS SETTLED DOWN SOMEWHAT... WITH THE                        
 GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC GEM ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION             
 OF THE SYSTEM... AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE LOW RIGHT NOW IS           
 BASICALLY STALLED... BUT THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED... AND THUS FAR THE            
 MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SITUATION WELL... WHICH LENDS SOME              
 INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING.                                           
 STILL APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING RATHER EARLY... AND AS A            
 RESULT... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL HAVE A DECENT                  
 EASTERLY COMPONENT RIGHT UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS WILL TEND             
 TO KEEP DRIER AIR IN PLACE... WITH THE REALLY JUICY GULF AIR TENDING           
 TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-42 HOURS.  IT WILL TEND TO             
 POOL ALONG THE FRONT IN TIME... AND THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ACROSS            
 KANSAS.  THIS NARROW MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE FRONT FURTHER SUPPORTS           
 THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE MAX QPF IN A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW... WITH              
 RELATIVELY ANEMIC PRECIP COVERAGE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE                  
 STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                     
 SREF POPS... AND BUFKIT GFS/NAM TIME HEIGHT X-SECTS SHOW THIS NARROW           
 WINDOW OF PRECIP QUITE WELL... AND IT APPEARS THAT FOR MUCH OF THE             
 CWA... IT WILL BE CONFINED TO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...                 
 LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.                              
 HAVE PUT A LITTLE MORE DETAIL INTO THE POP GRIDS NOW... WITH 6 HOUR            
 CHUNKS REPRESENTING THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  TENDED TO             
 SUPPRESS POPS PRIOR TO MAX FORCING DUE TO EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE AND            
 LOW QPF.                                                                       
 WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WE SHOULD SEE           
 LESS AND LESS OF A DIURNAL TREND.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE                 
 EXHIBITED QUITE A RANGE BASED ON SKY COVER.  AT 08Z PIA WAS 46                 
 DEGREES UNDER A 4KFT OVERCAST DECK... WHILE CMI WAS 33 DEGREES AND             
 CLEAR BELOW 12KFT.                                                             
 MIXED CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS MAX TEMPS A LITTLE               
 BIT... BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF LOW/MID 50S IS ON TAP.  ROUGHLY           
 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.                                                     
 LONG TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...                                              
 GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS KICKING OUR UPPER LOW OUT LATE MONDAY... BUT           
 SO FAR APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT IS QUITE VIGOROUS               
 WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM THE                
 CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  NAM IS BY FAR THE SLOWEST MODEL... AND SHOWS               
 LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN FROM UP NORTH BY             
 +84HRS.  ECMWF IS A HAPPY MIDDLE GROUND AT THIS POINT... WITH JUST             
 ENOUGH OF A KICKER DROPPING IN TO MOVE OUR UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT             
 PRECIP CHANCES OUT BY TUESDAY.  THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR             
 NOW.  THE RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE BY THE ECMWF... AND THE GENERAL              
 UNRELIABILITY OF THE NAM BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS WEIGHS HEAVILY INTO             
 THIS DECISION.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 HARDIMAN                                                                       
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                       
 1126 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.                                                       
 AT 16Z AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU WAS ACROSS SRN IL AND WRN KY              
 AND WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NE. SE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE             
 ATMS WAS BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO HELP EVAPORATE SOME OF THESE                 
 CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN EDGE...CREATING MORE OF A N MOVEMENT. MODELS             
 PICK UP ON THIS PRETTY WELL. CURRENT BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS HUF MAY            
 MIX OUT EARLY THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE THE LARGER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL              
 MOVE INTO LAF AND HUF BEFORE 00Z. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER THE CLOUDS             
 OR DRY SE FLOW WILL WIN OUT FOR A WHILE AT BMG AND IND. DECIDED TO             
 BRING IN CLOUDS AT 04Z AT IND AND AFT 06Z AT BMG. SOME PERIODS OF              
 MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS NOTED IN UPSTREAM OBS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEM           
 MAKING IT HERE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THESE IN TAFS.                            
 WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THAT                 
 ENOUGH BREAKS WILL BE IN CLOUDS FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO FORM AT ALL BUT           
 IND. AT IND...EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE HEAT ISLAND ACROSS THE CITY              
 MAY KEEP TEMPS UP ENOUGH SO THAT MVFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHG EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TNGT AS FA CONTS TO             
 BE INFLUENCED BY BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE ERN AND NRN              
 CONUS AS WELL AS A STNRY UPR RIDGE ACRS THE FA. MAIN CHALLENGE WL BE           
 CLDS AND TEMPS.                                                                
 RUC40 75% 925 MB RH PROG HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON SC DECK ACRS AR AND            
 SRN MO SEEN ON 11-3.9 MICRON LOOP. RUC AND OTHER MODELS KEEP THE LOW           
 LVL MOIST AWAY UNTIL TOWARD SATURDAY MRNG WHEN THE LOWER LVLS                  
 MOISTEN UP FM N-S. CU PROGS ONLY INDICATING AT BEST SCT DIURNAL CU             
 ACRS WRN FA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE TIME SECS AND SATELLITE PROGS               
 FAVOR SCT HIGH CLDS THROUGH TNGT.                                              
 YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPS MATCHED WITH SFC PARCEL TRAJ FCST WOULD FAVOR           
 RAISING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FM YESTERDAY`S HIGHS...WHILE H850 TEMP             
 PROGS ONLY FORECASTING A 1 DEGREE OR LESS RISE WITH LITTLE MIXING              
 EXPECTED. FEEL COMPROMISE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO WITH TEMPS A DEGREE             
 OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. FINALLY...BASED ON TEMPS SO FAR TNGT             
 AND SIMILAR CONDS EXPECTED TOMORROW NGT...FAVOR COOLEST GFS MOS. WL            
 ALSO MENTION PATCHY FOG AS DEW PTS SHOULD COME UP A BIT IN S LOL LVL           
 FLOW.                                                                          
 LONG TERM...DEEP UPPR SYS CURRENTLY OVR THE SRN ROCKIES WL BE SLOW             
 TO EJECT OUT AS NO IMMINENT KICKER UPSTREAM EVIDENT ON H20 LOOP.               
 RATHER STG UPPR RDG ACRS THE AREA SHOULD HOLD AT LEAST INTO SAT                
 KEEPING PCPN CHCS TO A MINIMUM UNTIL THEN. MODELS CONTINUE TO                  
 SUPPORT THIS WAY OF THINKING AS THEY SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPR              
 SYS. WL SHAVE THE POPS ON SAT AFT BACK A BIT IN BOTH TIME AND                  
 SPACE...AND CONT WITH THE HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.                      
 LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS NUMBERS LOOK MORE ACCURATE              
 FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. XPCTD CLD COVER/PCPN BY SUN SUGGESTS THE COOLER             
 ETA MOS WL WORK BETTER FOR HIGHS ON SUN.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...CS                                                                  
 SHORT TERM...KOCH                                                              
 LONG TERM...SKOWRONEK                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                       
 635 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.                                                       
 RUC40 80% 850 MB RH PROG HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON SC DECK ACRS NRN IN            
 AND CNTRL IL THIS MRNG. DECK ALMOST TO LAF AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN              
 THERE THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT THE SC TO MAKE IT TO HUF BY EARLY                 
 AFTERNOON AS WELL. MEANWHILE...MODEL TIMES AND SATELLIT PROGS FAVOR            
 BRINGING CI DECK IN AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TNGT FOR             
 SOME PATCHY FOG.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHG EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TNGT AS FA CONTS TO             
 BE INFLUENCED BY BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE ERN AND NRN              
 CONUS AS WELL AS A STNRY UPR RIDGE ACRS THE FA. MAIN CHALLENGE WL BE           
 CLDS AND TEMPS.                                                                
 RUC40 75% 925 MB RH PROG HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON SC DECK ACRS AR AND            
 SRN MO SEEN ON 11-3.9 MICRON LOOP. RUC AND OTHER MODELS KEEP THE LOW           
 LVL MOIST AWAY UNTIL TOWARD SATURDAY MRNG WHEN THE LOWER LVLS                  
 MOISTEN UP FM N-S. CU PROGS ONLY INDICATING AT BEST SCT DIURNAL CU             
 ACRS WRN FA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE TIME SECS AND SATELLITE PROGS               
 FAVOR SCT HIGH CLDS THROUGH TNGT.                                              
 YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPS MATCHED WITH SFC PARCEL TRAJ FCST WOULD FAVOR           
 RAISING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FM YESTERDAY`S HIGHS...WHILE H850 TEMP             
 PROGS ONLY FORECASTING A 1 DEGREE OR LESS RISE WITH LITTLE MIXING              
 EXPECTED. FEEL COMPROMISE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO WITH TEMPS A DEGREE             
 OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. FINALLY...BASED ON TEMPS SO FAR TNGT             
 AND SIMILAR CONDS EXPECTED TOMORROW NGT...FAVOR COOLEST GFS MOS. WL            
 ALSO MENTION PATCHY FOG AS DEW PTS SHOULD COME UP A BIT IN S LOL LVL           
 FLOW.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION/SHORT TERM...KOCH                                                     
 LONG TERM...SKOWRONEK                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                       
 300 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHG EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TNGT AS FA CONTS TO             
 BE INFLUENCED BY BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE ERN AND NRN              
 CONUS AS WELL AS A STNRY UPR RIDGE ACRS THE FA. MAIN CHALLENGE WL BE           
 CLDS AND TEMPS.                                                                
 RUC40 75% 925 MB RH PROG HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON SC DECK ACRS AR AND            
 SRN MO SEEN ON 11-3.9 MICRON LOOP. RUC AND OTHER MODELS KEEP THE LOW           
 LVL MOIST AWAY UNTIL TOWARD SATURDAY MRNG WHEN THE LOWER LVLS                  
 MOISTEN UP FM N-S. CU PROGS ONLY INDICATING AT BEST SCT DIURNAL CU             
 ACRS WRN FA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE TIME SECS AND SATELLITE PROGS               
 FAVOR SCT HIGH CLDS THROUGH TNGT.                                              
 YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPS MATCHED WITH SFC PARCEL TRAJ FCST WOULD FAVOR           
 RAISING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FM YESTERDAY`S HIGHS...WHILE H850 TEMP             
 PROGS ONLY FORECASTING A 1 DEGREE OR LESS RISE WITH LITTLE MIXING              
 EXPECTED. FEEL COMPROMISE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO WITH TEMPS A DEGREE             
 OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. FINALLY...BASED ON TEMPS SO FAR TNGT             
 AND SIMILAR CONDS EXPECTED TOMORROW NGT...FAVOR COOLEST GFS MOS. WL            
 ALSO MENTION PATCHY FOG AS DEW PTS SHOULD COME UP A BIT IN S LOL LVL           
 FLOW.                                                                          
 LONG TERM...DEEP UPPR SYS CURRENTLY OVR THE SRN ROCKIES WL BE SLOW             
 TO EJECT OUT AS NO IMMINENT KICKER UPSTREAM EVIDENT ON H20 LOOP.               
 RATHER STG UPPR RDG ACRS THE AREA SHOULD HOLD AT LEAST INTO SAT                
 KEEPING PCPN CHCS TO A MINIMUM UNTIL THEN. MODELS CONTINUE TO                  
 SUPPORT THIS WAY OF THINKING AS THEY SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPR              
 SYS. WL SHAVE THE POPS ON SAT AFT BACK A BIT IN BOTH TIME AND                  
 SPACE...AND CONT WITH THE HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.                      
 LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS NUMBERS LOOK MORE ACCURATE              
 FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. XPCTD CLD COVER/PCPN BY SUN SUGGESTS THE COOLER             
 ETA MOS WL WORK BETTER FOR HIGHS ON SUN.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.                                                       
 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE            
 FROM SPREADING EAST INTO INDIANA FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. IT             
 MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION AT LEAST SCT030-040 AT KLAF AND KHUF.           
 MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO SPREAD DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO                 
 WESTERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN INDIANA TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF                
 PERIOD.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION/SHORT TERM...KOCH                                                     
 LONG TERM...SKOWRONEK                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                         
 839 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NW 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH            
 MINOR SCATTERED REFLECTIVITY RETURNS SHOWING UP ACROSS THE                     
 NORTHCENTRAL. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT IN POSITION HOWEVER                  
 EXPANDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AF FOG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH OF FRONTAL             
 POSITION FOR TONIGHT AND PLACED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AFTER            
 MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SW WHERE RUC BRINGS IN ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF             
 50+ J/KG AROUND 9Z. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY WORKED AS FAR N AND                 
 CENTRAL KS. WILL UPDATE HWO AND ZONES SHORTLY.                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 RUSSELL                                                                        
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                         
 225 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .DAYS 1-2...                                                                   
 THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW FAST AND HOW FAR EAST TO WITH              
 RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER LINE. NEXT WILL BE HOW                
 HIGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH AND WILL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BE MET.               
 KEPT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AS IS WAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE               
 WAS TO CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE              
 DIGHTON TO MEADE CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. DO NO EXPECT AS MUCH SNOW              
 ACCUMULATION AS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...SOME 3 TO 5 INCHES                 
 TONIGHT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF FREEZING PRECIP ON                            
 ROADS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH LOW VISIBILITIES...AND SNOW             
 ON TOP OF ALL THAT TO RESULT IN ENOUGH HAZARDS TO WARRANT A WINTER             
 STORM WARNING. WE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED BOTH AREAS...STARTING                
 THE WINTER STORM WARNING AT 1845Z IN THE FAR WEST...AND CHANGING               
 THE AREA WEST OF A DIGHTON TO MEADE LINE TO A WARNING TONIGHT.                 
 WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE RUC (OF COURSE), THE NGM AND THE              
 NAM SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST THIS MORNING.  FOLLOWING THE                 
 NAM80...THE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FALL ALONG AND EVEN AFTER               
 THE PHASE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.  SOME PLACES REPORTED 2.5-2.6 INCHES            
 OF RAIN THIS PAST NIGHT IN MY WEST-CENTRAL ZONES.  THIS WILL SURELY            
 SATURATE THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE SURFACE AND SLOW DOWN SNOWFALL                
 ACCUMULATION ONCE IT BEGINS.  WILL HAVE TO PLACE THE STRONGEST                 
 FORCING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS SETTING              
 UP.  THERE COULD BE 9 TO 12 INCHES THERE BEFORE IT ENDS.  BLOWING              
 SNOW IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THE SNOWFALL                 
 EFFECTS.  ON THE CHANCE THAT SNOW MOVES FARTHER EAST FASTER THAN I             
 HAVE FORECAST...THE NEXT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE IF AN                    
 ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.  FOR NOW...THINK THE WET                   
 GROUND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN DETERMINING WHERE SNOW WILL                   
 ACCUMULATE THE QUICKEST.                                                       
 .DAYS 3-7...                                                                   
 NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED DUE TO SHORT TERM             
 CONCERNS.  AFTER SHIPPING THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST             
 SUNDAY NIGHT, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT           
 UPPER TROUGH.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG THE SYSTEM DOWN INTO THE             
 SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  THEY THEN TRY AND BRING THE UPPER LOW           
 OUT INTO THE PLAINS SOMETIME DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME                
 FRAME.  THERE WERE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z             
 GFS RUNS, WITH THE 06Z BRINGING OUT THE SYSTEM FASTER AND FURTHER              
 NORTH WHILE THE 12Z BACKS OFF.  GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES AND THE                
 LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, WILL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY PRECIP IN FOR              
 NOW.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE, WHICH            
 WAS JUST A BIT COLDER THAN THE GOING GRIDS FOR TUESDAY TO THURSDAY.            
 THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF           
 SNOW ON THE GROUND.  NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DDC 31 32 27 33 / 100  90 70 30                                                
 GCK 28 29 24 33 / 100  90 70 30                                                
 EHA 25 30 22 33 /  90  90 80 30                                                
 LBL 28 29 24 33 / 100  90 70 30                                                
 HYS 33 34 27 33 / 100 100 70 40                                                
 P28 47 48 34 37 / 100  80 50 30                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR                    
 KSZ043-061-062-074-084.                                                        
 WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY               
 FOR KSZ044-063-075>077-085>087.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 FN12/26                                                                        
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                            
 1231 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                    
 .SHORT TERM.../REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                   
 MAINLY A SKY AND TEMP FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD...AS                
 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SAT. LARGE SFC               
 HIGH PRESSURE STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.             
 THUS FAR WE HAVE ONLY HAD TO CONTEND WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CI. SAT             
 LOOPS INDICATE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO OUR SOUTH OVER GA...AND                
 THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RUC...NAM AND GFS TRACK THE              
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WELL OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA              
 AND GRADUALLY LIFT MOISTURE IN GA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE                   
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 TEMPS THIS MORNING STARTED OUT COLD WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF FROST              
 REPORTED ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS. HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING ROUGHLY 3               
 DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING THAN 24 HRS AGO. THIS WOULD PUT MAX                
 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH CURRENT FCST HAS WELL            
 IN HAND.                                                                       
 SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING IN THE              
 FIRST PERIOD. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS WHILE AT IT SINCE THEY             
 ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER                  
 CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE. UPDATE OUT ASAP.                                  
 THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                 
 MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SAT...15 TO 20 DEGREES             
 ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO           
 MIN RH COULD DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT IN A FEW AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.              
 RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLIT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET TONIGHT WITH HIGH             
 PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT RIDGETOP               
 LEVEL.                                                                         
 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE            
 SOUTHEASTERN US. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE           
 SYSTEM TODAY OVER CENTRAL TX EARLY TODAY AND THEN TRACK INTO KANSAS            
 BY SAT EVENING. A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH           
 ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS SW/VS ROTATE            
 AROUND THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM ON SAT NIGHT AND TRACK TO NEAR THE                
 CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY AROUND 12Z ON SUN. A WARM                
 FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON SAT NIGHT AND CROSS THE               
 AREA ON SUN AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS INTO IA BY LATE IN THE DAY.               
 THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE SUN...WITH THE             
 SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT REACHING CENTRAL KY BY LATE IN THE DAY. MAX T              
 WILL AGAIN BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                   
 THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN AREA OF MEAN SUBSIDENCE UNTIL THE RIDGE           
 AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA ON SAT EVENING. THE UPPER FLOW WILL                
 BECOME DIFFLUENT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE           
 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AM. THIS LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH AND NOT ALL           
 THAT STRONG ON THE 300 AND 310K PLANES IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT.           
 FLOW BETWEEN HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW TO THE NW OF THE CWA            
 WILL LEAD TO INITIAL DOWNSLOPING. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE              
 RAIN FALLING OUT OF RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES...WILL LEAD TO LIGHT           
 QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE 0Z AND 6Z GUIDANCE...IT                
 APPEARS MORE AND MORE DOUBTFUL THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL FALL                
 BEFORE MIDDAY ON SUN OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES. FOR NOW TRENDED POPS            
 DOWN IN THE SE ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND CONTINUED LIKELY              
 POPS FOR SUN. ATTM...INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT              
 APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER.                                                 
 .LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/                                   
 BEST OVERALL FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD           
 FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING.            
 CONTINUED LIKELY POPS ON SUN EVENING FOR EASTERN AREAS AND CHANCE IN           
 THE WEST. NAM/WRF HAS A LITTLE SLOWER FROPA...WHILE ECMWF AND GFS              
 ARE FASTER. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD THE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT                  
 SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DRY SLOTTING WILL              
 WORK INTO THE AREA ON MON...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LEAVING THE AREA.             
 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVELS MAY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH              
 FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON MON. OPTED TO                   
 MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON MON AND                
 CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MON INTO MON EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL SW/V                
 TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA. UPSLOPE RAIN            
 SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUE OVER THE FAR SE...BUT               
 RIDGING WILL WORK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ENDING THE              
 THREAT OF PRECIP. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER           
 THAN RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE COLD AIR REMAINS CONFINED TO THE           
 NORTH OF THE OH RIVER.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION.../18Z-18Z/...UPDATED                                                
 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ONLY SOME CIRRUS TO TRAVERSE              
 THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOME LIGHT FROST IN THE             
 PREDAWN HOURS BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...JP/RAY                                                            
 LONG TERM...JP                                                                 
 AVIATION...DUSTY                                                               
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                            
 1100 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                    
 .SHORT TERM.../REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED                         
 MAINLY A SKY AND TEMP FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD...AS                
 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SAT. LARGE SFC               
 HIGH PRSSURE STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.              
 THUS FAR WE HAVE ONLY HAD TO CONTEND WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CI. SAT             
 LOOPS INDICATE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO OUR SOUTH OVER GA...AND                
 THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RUC...NAM AND GFS TRACK THE              
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WELL OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA              
 AND GRADUALLY LIFT MOISTURE IN GA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE                   
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 TEMPS THIS MORNING STARTED OUT COLD WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF FROST              
 REPORTED ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS. HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING ROUGHLY 3               
 DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING THAN 24 HRS AGO. THIS WOULD PUT MAX                
 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH CURRENT FCST HAS WELL            
 IN HAND.                                                                       
 SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING IN THE              
 FIRST PERIOD. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS WHILE AT IT SINCE THEY             
 ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER                  
 CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE. UPDATE OUT ASAP.                                  
 THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                 
 MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SAT...15 TO 20 DEGREES             
 ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO           
 MIN RH COULD DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT IN A FEW AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.              
 RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLIT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET TONIGHT WITH HIGH             
 PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT RIDGETOP               
 LEVEL.                                                                         
 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE            
 SOUTHEASTERN US. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE           
 SYSTEM TODAY OVER CENTRAL TX EARLY TODAY AND THEN TRACK INTO KANSAS            
 BY SAT EVENING. A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH           
 ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS SW/VS ROTATE            
 AROUND THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM ON SAT NIGHT AND TRACK TO NEAR THE                
 CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY AROUND 12Z ON SUN. A WARM                
 FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON SAT NIGHT AND CROSS THE               
 AREA ON SUN AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS INTO IA BY LATE IN THE DAY.               
 THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE SUN...WITH THE             
 SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT REACHING CENTRAL KY BY LATE IN THE DAY. MAX T              
 WILL AGAIN BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                   
 THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN AREA OF MEAN SUBSIDENCE UNTIL THE RIDGE           
 AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA ON SAT EVENING. THE UPPER FLOW WILL                
 BECOME DIFFLUENT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE           
 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AM. THIS LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH AND NOT ALL           
 THAT STRONG ON THE 300 AND 310K PLANES IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT.           
 FLOW BETWEEN HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW TO THE NW OF THE CWA            
 WILL LEAD TO INITIAL DOWNSLOPING. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE              
 RAIN FALLING OUT OF RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES...WILL LEAD TO LIGHT           
 QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE 0Z AND 6Z GUIDANCE...IT                
 APPEARS MORE AND MORE DOUBTFUL THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL FALL                
 BEFORE MIDDAY ON SUN OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES. FOR NOW TRENDED POPS            
 DOWN IN THE SE ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND CONTINUED LIKELY              
 POPS FOR SUN. ATTM...INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT              
 APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER.                                                 
 .LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/                                   
 BEST OVERALL FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD           
 FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING.            
 CONTINUED LIKELY POPS ON SUN EVENING FOR EASTERN AREAS AND CHANCE IN           
 THE WEST. NAM/WRF HAS A LITTLE SLOWER FROPA...WHILE ECMWF AND GFS              
 ARE FASTER. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD THE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT                  
 SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DRY SLOTTING WILL              
 WORK INTO THE AREA ON MON...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LEAVING THE AREA.             
 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVELS MAY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH              
 FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON MON. OPTED TO                   
 MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON MON AND                
 CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MON INTO MON EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL SW/V                
 TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA. UPSLOPE RAIN            
 SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUE OVER THE FAR SE...BUT               
 RIDGING WILL WORK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ENDING THE              
 THREAT OF PRECIP. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER           
 THAN RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE COLD AIR REMAINS CONFINED TO THE           
 NORTH OF THE OH RIVER.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION.../12Z-12Z/                                                          
 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ONLY SOME CIRRUS WILL TRAVERSE THE                    
 THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...JP/RAY                                                            
 LONG TERM...JP                                                                 
 AVIATION...GEOGERIAN                                                           
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1015 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                    
 ...LATE MORNING UPDATE...                                                      
 LOW AND MID CLOUDS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH              
 PROGRESS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC MODEL KEEPS LOW RH              
 VALUES (30%) AT 8H HEIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THIS IN           
 MIND WE WILL CUT BACK CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST AND MAY UP                   
 TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. --JA          
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                   
 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
 FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE BIGGEST                 
 CONCERNS FOR NOW. WITH THE SFC FLOW FROM THE ESE AND WITH THE SFC              
 DEWPOINTS LIKELY ONLY RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S LATER            
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS BOTH PERIODS WILL HAVE            
 A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MAX AND MIN TEMPS. SINCE THE WESTERN               
 PLAINS SYSTEM IS NOT SHIFTING AS MUCH TO THE EAST AS EARLIER                   
 PREDICTED DURING THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RH            
 WILL LIKEWISE BE SLOWER TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD TOO. SO SCT TO BKN            
 MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.                             
 THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT SUNSHINE AGAIN TODAY AND SOME EFFECTIVE             
 RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.  WE WILL MORE OR LESS GO WITH A BLEND             
 OF THE LATEST MET AND MAV MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TODAY AND              
 TONIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY MEAN SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT             
 FORECAST TRENDS. --21                                                          
 .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                      
 A FEW CHANGES NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...TO CATCH TIMING TRENDS            
 FOR WEEKEND SYSTEM AND ADJUSTMENTS TO LATE PERIOD TRENDS IN THE BOTH           
 THE EURO AND GFS. AGREE WITH HPC THAT THE OPERATIONAL 00Z UKMET                
 LOOKS LIKE A SOLID SOLUTION THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG              
 TERM...WILL START TO BLEND TOWARDS THE 00Z EURO FROM MONDAY THROUGH            
 THE REST OF THE PERIOD.                                                        
 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                                     
 UKMET/NAM/EURO ALL ARE SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...AS THE GFS HAS AN              
 ODDITY ACROSS CANADA ALTERING ITS SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES              
 FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY MORNING TO KANSAS CITY BY SUNDAY                
 EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST           
 AREA AS OF MONDAY 00Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE                
 UKMET TIMING...AND START RAPID CLIMB IN POPS OVERSPREADING THE                 
 FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY (SATURDAY NIGHT). PWATS ARE STILL               
 EXTREMELY HIGH FOR LATE DEC...AND FORCING IS MODERATE AT BEST...SO             
 SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT            
 INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND .5 TO .75               
 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR                 
 SATURDAY WITH NO PRECIP COMING UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE             
 FORECAST AREA AND SUNDAY EVEN WITH THE RAIN...AS A FEW BREAKS IN THE           
 RAIN AND THE STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH TEMPS            
 INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MANY.                                                   
 COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...WITH              
 THE DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT              
 MORE SUN DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY AND TEMPS WILL RISE              
 SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CLOUDS ROLL BACK IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER             
 LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...COLDEST H500 AIR NOW LOOKS TO           
 STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE LAPSE RATES DO NOT           
 GET TOO IMPRESSIVE AFTER ALL...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC            
 FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.                                                         
 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                    
 UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE           
 NE CONUS TUESDAY AS SFC HI SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MS           
 RVR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE               
 SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND WILL START TO PUMP HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION            
 AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPS TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV                 
 NORMAL. SFC HI PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED              
 AFTN...AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 6 TO 8C. HAVE RAISED TEMPS                  
 SLIGHTLY TO THE EDGE OF COLLAB LIMITS FOR WEDNESDAY AND                        
 THURSDAY...MAY NEED ADDITIONAL TWEAKS UPWARDS IF THE TRENDS                    
 CONTINUE AND THE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION DOES LOOK MORE REASONABLE. THE             
 GFS LOOKS TO DIG THE UPPER LOW TOO FAR SOUTH DEEP INTO MEXICO...WITH           
 THE ENSEMBLE GFS TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF                  
 TX...SIMILAR TO THE EURO.                                                      
 THOSE LOOKING FOR SOME SNOW MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF               
 NEXT MONTH BEFORE CONDITIONS MAY TURN IN YOUR FAVOR...AS THE EPO               
 INDEX SHOWS A RAPID DECLINE FROM BEING STRONGLY POSITIVE THE 8TH TO            
 THE 11TH OF JAN...AND THE PNA AND NAO SEEM TO BECOME MORE COLD                 
 FRIENDLY (+PNA AND -NAO) AFTER THAT TIMEFRAME THANKS TO SOME                   
 FORECASTED BUCKLING OF THE PAC JET WHICH HAS BEEN SCREAMING ACROSS             
 THE PACIFIC FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS.                                            
 SCHOTT                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                            
 942 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF VT AT 02Z WILL                 
 MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD              
 FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY SOUTHWARD FROM LANCASTER PA TO BALTIMORE MD             
 TO PATUXENT MD AT 02Z. 00Z RUC/18Z GFS/18Z NAM PROJECT THAT THE                
 BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE                
 FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT              
 HAS ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO DE AND EASTERN MD THIS EVENING WITH SFC             
 DEWPOINTS INCREASING 3 TO 6 F INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.                   
 INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT              
 WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE AREAS OF               
 FOG TO FORM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT DENSER FOG TO FORM                  
 ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WHERE MOISTURE                 
 ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF OF A                
 MILE CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THESE AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 MILE                        
 VISIBILITIES FURTHER INLAND.                                                   
 UPDATED ZONES TO LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE               
 BLUE RIDGE. ZONES SENT AT 9:20 PM.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 148 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2006/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE                      
 NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE              
 NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IN THE MID AND UPPER                      
 LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS ZIG ZAGGED FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE             
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WAS                
 SENDING WAVES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. MID               
 ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.                         
 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH              
 SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS A LITTLE EAST TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE            
 VALLEYS BY SATURDAY...CREATING MORE OF A NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER               
 FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE THE SAME AS THE PAST            
 COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WAVES OF MID AND HIGH MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH            
 WITH SCT-OCNLY BKN CI/AC. HOWEVER...WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT MAKING             
 IT SOUTH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TAKING            
 CONTROL...A MOISTER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. BOTH GFS             
 AND NAM BUFKIT INDICATE SATURATION BELOW THE DEVELOPED                         
 INVERSION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE                  
 TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MTNS ESPECIALLY NEAR BWI/DCA           
 (CHO MAY BE EXEMPT). THEREFORE...WILL TRANSITION FROM PARTLY CLOUDY            
 TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY EAST OF THE MTNS            
 BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF            
 SATURDAY. FOG MAY ALSO BE PRESENT...HOWEVER DO NOT BELIEVE FOG WILL            
 BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY INCLUDE PATCHY FOG               
 WORDING.                                                                       
 FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT                   
 MINS...BUT ONCE AGAIN WENT ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW MOS FOR MAXES ON             
 SATURDAY GIVEN THE RECENT WARM BIAS FROM MOS...AND EXPECTED LOW                
 CLOUDS TO START THE DAY.                                                       
 LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                   
 THE GNRL THEME FOR THE UPCOMING STORM REMAINS CONSISTENT...W/                  
 NYE/NYD THE FOCUS FOR PCPN. HWVR...NAM/GFS/GFSENS/SREF TIMING                  
 DIVERGES...MOST NOTABLY IN THE H5 AND QPF FIELDS. RECENT TRENDS WUD            
 SUGGEST TO SLOW FWD PROGRESS DWN AGN /CLSR TO THE NAM SOLN/... HV              
 CONCERNS THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPR LOW MIGHT BE A LTL UNDERDONE             
 ON THE NAM. SIMILAR QUANDRY FOR THE QPF...THE ENTRENCHED RDG AND ITS           
 DRY AIR BTWN CONUS CYCLONE AND WRN ATLC TROF WUD SPEAK TO A SLOER              
 SOLN...BUT H8 WAA AND ITS RSLTNT OVERRUNNING SHUD BE IMPRSV...AND              
 THE UPGLIDE THAT PROVIDES SUCH FORCING USUALLY UNDERDONE BY MDL                
 GDNC. THUS...PREFER AN ENSEMBLE SOLN-- GFSENS OBVIOUSLY IS GFS                 
 WEIGHTED...AND SREF WEIGHTED TWD WRF. A BLEND OF THESE TWO SUGGEST             
 ONSET LT SUN AFTN CBE-CHO...SPREADING TO I-95 CRRDR IN THE 00-03Z              
 TIMEFRAME...AND TO THE BAY BY MIDNGT. HWVR...BEST RAIN WL BE OVNGT             
 SUN THRU MON MRNG. THIS CYCLONE WL BE FLLWG SIMILAR PATH TO THE LAST           
 TWO...W/ A HINT OF CSTL DVLPMNT MON AFTN. MSTR STREAM WL COME FM               
 GLFMEX...W/ CONTRIBUTION FM ATLC DUE TO E/NE FLOW PRECEDING CYCLONE.           
 LLVL CNVGNC SGFNT...AND FEEL COMFY W/ A PD OF CAT POPS /80 PCT/ IN             
 THIS ZN. SREF DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF 90 PCT PROBABILITY OF RAFL.              
 PWAT UPWD OF AN INCH. WL GO W/ THAT FOR TARGET QPF.                            
 TKNS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT PCPN OTR THAN RA...AND DENSE CLDCVR                   
 OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHD OF SYSTM SUN WUD INHIBIT TEMPS FM                   
 DROPPING TOO FAR ANYWAY. BLENDED MOS TEMPS USED...MIN-T 30S SAT NGT            
 /APPROPRIATE FOR PTCLDY SKIES AND DEWPTS LWR-MID 30S/...MAXT SUN IN            
 THE 40S W/ LMTD SUNSHN DUE TO THICKENING CLDS...AND MIN-T UPR                  
 30S/LWR 40S SUN NGT. MAXT MON A BIT TRICKY...CONTINGENT UPON                   
 PROGRESS OF WMFNT ACRS AREA. WUD RATHER NOT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN               
 THIS AREA...SINCE ELY FLOW WUD SUGGEST AN IN-SITU WEDGE SHUD DVLP.             
 WL HOLD ONTO GOING FCST.                                                       
 PCPN WL DEPART MON NGT...WHICH WL BE FLLWD BY A PD OF CAA TUE-WED.             
 UPSLOPE FLOW WL BE PRESENT...AND AMS WL BE MARGINALLY COLDER. UNSURE           
 THO IF THE CLD DECK THAT DOES DVLP WUD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT PCPN. WL             
 HOLD ONTO A TOKEN SCHC /FOR GRIDS...NOT TO APPR IN TXT FCSTS/...AND            
 LET THRML CONDS GOVERN PTYPE RA/SN.                                            
 THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST WL BE IN THE HANDS OF HIPRES. TEMPS FAIRLY           
 CONSISTENT W/ RECENT PAST-- AOA CLIMO. MAY BE ANTHR SYSTM AT DAY 7.            
 AVIATION /19Z-18Z/...                                                          
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.            
 GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SATURATION MAY PROMOTE LOW             
 CLOUDS ACROSS TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KDCA/KIAD/KBWI/KMTN. BOTH GFS             
 AND NAM BUFKIT INDICATES THIS POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY                
 SATURDAY. IN THE 18Z TAFS...HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC BASED ON             
 LOW CLOUDS EXPECTATION...WITH CIGS GOINGS AS LOW AS IFR. FOG MAY               
 ALSO LOW VSBYS INTO MVFR...PERHAPS EVEN IFR AT KBWI/KMTN. BELIEVE              
 THAT KCHO AND KMRB WILL BE LESS VULNERABLE FOR LOW CLOUD/FOG                   
 FORMATION AND WILL RETAIN VFR MOST OF THE TIME.                                
 MARINE...                                                                      
 NO FLAGS FORESEEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL               
 PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WNDS WL INCR TO                
 15 KT AHD OF STORM SYSTM SUN NGT/MON MRNG. TRAJ A LTL TRICKY...AS              
 GDNC LIKES TO SWING WNDS ARND FM E TO S A BIT TOO QUICKLY. IT WL               
 HAPPEN PRIOR TO FROPA LT MON/MON NGT...W/ WSHFT ULTIMATELY TO THE              
 W. WL COME REAL CLOSE TO SCA DURING DIURNAL MIXING IN NW FLOW                  
 DAYTIME TUE AND WED.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 DC...NONE.                                                                     
 MD...NONE.                                                                     
 VA...NONE.                                                                     
 WV...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...SMITH                                                             
</pre> md                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 530 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TODAY AND PCPN                     
 CHANCES/TYPE SUN INTO MON.                                                     
 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG FROM THE PAC NW INTO WRN           
 CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM NRN STREAM TROF FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO SRN             
 SASK AND MT. THE SRN STREAM WAS DOMINATED BY A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED              
 OVER SW NM. MAINLY CONFLUENT FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT             
 LAKES BTWN A RDG FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE NRN PLAINS AND A TROF OVER           
 ERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...ERLY FLOW FLOW CONTINUED BTWN A RDG                   
 STRETCHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TO             
 SASK AND FRONT FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND A           
 TROF THROUGH THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW            
 DEVELOPING FROM ERN SD INTO SW MN SUPPORTED BY 700-600 FGEN NEAR THE           
 RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY                
 SKIES COVERED THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE ERN EDGE OF THE CWA. MOIST             
 VEERING LOW LVL FLOW WITH UPSLOPE INTO CNTRL UPR MI HAS PRODUCED LOW           
 STRATUS AND FOG.                                                               
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM AND LOCAL HIGH RES WRF MDLS                
 SUGGEST THAT THE BAND OF STRONGER 700-600 FGEN WILL LIFT ENE TO NEAR           
 THE WI BORDER BY MIDDAY AND WEAKEN LATE AS IT SLIDES TO ERN UPR MI             
 AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE 250-300 MB JET LIFTS TO             
 THE NE. POPS WERE BOOSTED TO LIKELY NEAR THE WI BORDER IN BEST                 
 PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER FORCING. FARTHER N...TAPERED POPS TO                 
 CHANCE GIVEN WEAKER DYNAMICS AND AMOUNT OF LOW LVL DRY AIR IN                  
 PLACE...PER LATE EVENING TAMDAR SNDGS. COMBINATION OF THE                      
 GFS/HIRESWRF QPF WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH.                
 GIVEN NARROW FGEN BAND...SOME LCLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE              
 BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHERE/IF THIS MIGHT SET UP. DEPARTURE OF            
 THE JET AND FGEN WITH 700-300 QVECTOR DIV BUILDING INTO THE AREA               
 FROM W TO E SHOULD BRING AN END TO SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT.                       
 THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE                   
 TIMING/POSITION OF THE 500 MB AND SFC LOW THROUGH LATE 00Z/MON                 
 ALTHOUGH THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER ON THE SLOW SIDE...GIVEN SOME                  
 SUPPORT FROM THE SLOWER UKMET AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH           
 THE MDLS HISTORY OF DELAYING THE SYSTEM...THE FCST WILL CONTINUE TO            
 HEDGE TOWARD A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE UKMET.                                   
 SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW              
 WILL ALLOW THE SFC RDG TO BUILD FROM NRN ONTARIO SHOULD BRING ENOUGH           
 DRYING FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY...PER GFS             
 FCST SNDGS. SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO                 
 UPPER 30S. A PERIOD OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE DRY                 
 AIRMASS IN PLACE BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE AFT 06Z/SUN...SHOULD             
 ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO GUIDANCE VALUES AND THEN           
 BEFORE BECOMING STEADY.                                                        
 SUN INTO MON...EVEN IF THE GFS INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN WITH A                    
 LEAD SHRTWV AND 295K-300K LIFT IS OVERDONE...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS              
 ARE WARRANTED BY AFTERNOON FOR PCPN TO SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.            
 CONSENSUS OF UKMET/ECMWF/GFS 850 MB TEMPS OR 850-700 THICKNESS AND             
 GFS FCST SNDGS SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PCPN WITH EITHER                  
 SLEET/FZRA OR RAIN/SNOW AS TEMPS EDGE ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON.             
 THE GFS 900-700 MB LAYER REMAINS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXED PCPN             
 OVER THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA TIL MON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND WEAK CAA           
 TAKES OVER.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JLB                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 835 PM EST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 SPOTTERS CALLS TO SRN MNM COUNTY REVEAL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW HAS              
 FALLEN WITH STEADY SN FALLING NOW UNDER NARROW BAND OF HIER                    
 REFLECTIVITY STRETCHING ACRS NCNTRL WI ACRS THE S HALF OF MNM COUNTY           
 INTO NRN LK MI COINCIDENT WITH AXIS OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF UPR JET/             
 SHARPER H7-8 FGEN WHERE DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON 00Z APX RAOB IS                   
 PROBABLY REPRESENTATIVE. AREAL EXTENT OF BAND IS CONFINED TO THIS              
 NARROW BAND DUE TO DRIER AIR SHOWN ON 00Z GRB SDNG AND RECENT TAMDAR           
 SDNGS AT SAW/CMX. IN FACT...NO SN IS FALLING AT IMT OR ESC. BUMPED             
 UP POPS OVER SRN MNM COUNTY TO CATEGORICAL AND WENT WITH                       
 ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES BEFORE LATEST RUC/GFS SUG DYNAMICS/                
 DEEPER MSTR WL EXIT BY 06Z OR SO FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SUBTLE                 
 SHRTWV SHEARING ACRS THE UPR LKS. CLD TOP TEMPS APPEAR TO BE RISING            
 UPSTREAM OVER CNTRL MN/WRN WI IN THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK             
 FEATURE.                                                                       
 COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                          
 KC                                                                             
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 349 PM)...                                     
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...                                          
 TAKING A LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...A CLOSED           
 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.            
 THE 250MB 140KT JET WAS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA             
 AND THE PACIFIC.  ANOTHER...WEAKER 110KT JET WAS SLIDING DOWN                  
 THROUGH THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA BORDER.                               
 AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN             
 TIER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR           
 AND THE UPPER PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS             
 SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.  AT 500           
 MB...THE RIDGE IS LOCATED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...CENTERED OVER                
 SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA.  BACK TO OUR REGION...THE MODELS HAVE                   
 GENERALLY HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PICKING UP ON THE SNOW TODAY...AS A             
 WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ALONG THE MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN BORDER.  HAVE           
 NUDGED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR TONIGHT AND                 
 TOMORROW.                                                                      
 LIKED THE WAY THAT TEMPS WERE SET UP FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO                
 FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE                  
 CLOUDIER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.  SO...KEPT THIS GOING WITH ONLY            
 SMALL TWEAKS TO THE NUMBERS.  CLOUDS REMAIN THE TRICKY POINT                   
 HERE...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THEIR PROGRESSION.                       
 INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  STILL...THIS            
 LINES UP WITH FOR MENOMINEE...WITH OUR FORECAST FOR A MIXTURE OF               
 RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THERE.                                
 .LONGER TERM...00Z SAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...                                   
 NAM BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE FORECAST              
 PERIOD WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW EAST INTO NORTHERN KS BY            
 00Z MON. NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS IS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF           
 THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND IS SLOWER BRINGING IN THE PCPN FOR LATE              
 SUN WITH SLOWER 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 1000-500 MB RH             
 WHICH COMES INTO THE CWA ON SUN WITH THE MOISTURE ARRIVING ALONG THE           
 BORDER LATE SUN. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER BRINGING THE UPPER LOW NORTH              
 AND EAST AND IS TOO FAST BASED ON HOW MUCH THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS             
 INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION             
 SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL GO WITH SLOWER SOLUTION FOR NOW AND             
 DISCARD THE GFS WHICH IS TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST WITH THINGS AND TOO            
 FAST.                                                                          
 FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K             
 SURFACES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MENTION OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST ALONG             
 WITH SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS LASTS THE WHOLE           
 NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL NIGHT WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM           
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT HAD PCPN IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN               
 DRY. NAM THEN BRINGS IN SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ON SAT...SO             
 SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON SAT. WILL KEEP PCPN AS SNOW FOR THE MOST PART             
 AS DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL TRY TO BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR AND WITH              
 EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THIS SHOULD KEEP PCPN AS SNOW EXCEPT ALONG THE           
 LAKE MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORELINE WITH LOW LEVEL HEATING FROM           
 THE BODIES OF WATER WHICH COULD HAVE RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT.                  
 OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND              
 WENT CLOSE TO ADJMVR FOR TEMPERATURES.                                         
 SAT NIGHT LOOKS QUIET WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY                
 EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AND CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST              
 AND SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP AND COLD              
 CONDITIONS. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT FOR LOWS BECAUSE OF THIS.             
 WILL HOLD OFF PCPN UNTIL LATE SUN AFTERNOON ALONG THE BORDER                   
 COUNTIES OF WISCONSIN AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THINGS NEED TO             
 BE DELAYED FURTHER AND PCPN WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN NIGHT IF THIS             
 SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.                          
 IN THE EXTENDED...500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE             
 CORNBELT 00Z MON WITH TROUGHING ON THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS           
 THE ROCKIES AND THE EAST COAST. CANADIAN AND GFS TAKE A TROUGH                 
 FURTHER EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE WHILE THE ECMWF IS             
 SLOWER WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IL 00Z TUE. TROUGH IS TO              
 THE EAST THEN FOR 00Z WED. WILL GO DRY FOR TUE THROUGH THU WITH SFC            
 RIDGING IN THE AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR WHICH             
 SEEMED REASONABLE. HPC GRIDS WERE TOO HIGH ON LOWS AND HIGHS FOR WED           
 AND THU AND WENT WITH COLDER ADJMXR. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR              
 MON AND MON NIGHT AND GO WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SIMILAR TO              
 THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.              
 WILL GO CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE.              
 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO              
 COLD ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS IN SIGHT.                                           
 SHORT TERM...KF                                                                
 LONG TERM...GM                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 349 PM EST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...                                          
 TAKING A LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...A CLOSED           
 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.            
 THE 250MB 140KT JET WAS SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA             
 AND THE PACIFIC.  ANOTHER...WEAKER 110KT JET WAS SLIDING DOWN                  
 THROUGH THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA BORDER.                               
 AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN             
 TIER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR           
 AND THE UPPER PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS             
 SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.  AT 500           
 MB...THE RIDGE IS LOCATED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...CENTERED OVER                
 SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA.  BACK TO OUR REGION...THE MODELS HAVE                   
 GENERALLY HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PICKING UP ON THE SNOW TODAY...AS A             
 WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ALONG THE MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN BORDER.  HAVE           
 NUDGED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR TONIGHT AND                 
 TOMORROW.                                                                      
 LIKED THE WAY THAT TEMPS WERE SET UP FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO                
 FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE                  
 CLOUDIER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.  SO...KEPT THIS GOING WITH ONLY            
 SMALL TWEAKS TO THE NUMBERS.  CLOUDS REMAIN THE TRICKY POINT                   
 HERE...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THEIR PROGRESSION.                       
 INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  STILL...THIS            
 LINES UP WITH FOR MENOMINEE...WITH OUR FORECAST FOR A MIXTURE OF               
 RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THERE.                                
 .LONGER TERM...00Z SAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...                                   
 NAM BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE FORECAST              
 PERIOD WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW EAST INTO NORTHERN KS BY            
 00Z MON. NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS IS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF           
 THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND IS SLOWER BRINGING IN THE PCPN FOR LATE              
 SUN WITH SLOWER 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 1000-500 MB RH             
 WHICH COMES INTO THE CWA ON SUN WITH THE MOISTURE ARRIVING ALONG THE           
 BORDER LATE SUN. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER BRINGING THE UPPER LOW NORTH              
 AND EAST AND IS TOO FAST BASED ON HOW MUCH THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS             
 INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION             
 SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL GO WITH SLOWER SOLUTION FOR NOW AND             
 DISCARD THE GFS WHICH IS TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST WITH THINGS AND TOO            
 FAST.                                                                          
 FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K             
 SURFACES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MENTION OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST ALONG             
 WITH SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS LASTS THE WHOLE           
 NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL NIGHT WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM           
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT HAD PCPN IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN               
 DRY. NAM THEN BRINGS IN SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ON SAT...SO             
 SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON SAT. WILL KEEP PCPN AS SNOW FOR THE MOST PART             
 AS DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL TRY TO BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR AND WITH              
 EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THIS SHOULD KEEP PCPN AS SNOW EXCEPT ALONG THE           
 LAKE MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORELINE WITH LOW LEVEL HEATING FROM           
 THE BODIES OF WATER WHICH COULD HAVE RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT.                  
 OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND              
 WENT CLOSE TO ADJMVR FOR TEMPERATURES.                                         
 SAT NIGHT LOOKS QUIET WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY                
 EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AND CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST              
 AND SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP AND COLD              
 CONDITIONS. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT FOR LOWS BECAUSE OF THIS.             
 WILL HOLD OFF PCPN UNTIL LATE SUN AFTERNOON ALONG THE BORDER                   
 COUNTIES OF WISCONSIN AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THINGS NEED TO             
 BE DELAYED FURTHER AND PCPN WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN NIGHT IF THIS             
 SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.                          
 IN THE EXTENDED...500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE             
 CORNBELT 00Z MON WITH TROUGHING ON THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS           
 THE ROCKIES AND THE EAST COAST. CANADIAN AND GFS TAKE A TROUGH                 
 FURTHER EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE WHILE THE ECMWF IS             
 SLOWER WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IL 00Z TUE. TROUGH IS TO              
 THE EAST THEN FOR 00Z WED. WILL GO DRY FOR TUE THROUGH THU WITH SFC            
 RIDGING IN THE AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR WHICH             
 SEEMED REASONABLE. HPC GRIDS WERE TOO HIGH ON LOWS AND HIGHS FOR WED           
 AND THU AND WENT WITH COLDER ADJMXR. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR              
 MON AND MON NIGHT AND GO WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SIMILAR TO              
 THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.              
 WILL GO CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE.              
 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO              
 COLD ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS IN SIGHT.                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...KF                                                                
 LONG TERM...GM                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 445 AM EST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 FCST REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PCPN CHANCES               
 VERY UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...FCST CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH FROM           
 THE LAST DAY OR TWO DESPITE WEEKEND EVENT GETTING CLOSER IN TIME.              
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW TAKING           
 SHAPE OVER AZ IN BASE OF TROF THAT HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE WRN              
 CONUS DURING THE LAST 24 HRS. SYSTEM IS EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE BASED             
 ON 00Z RAOBS WHICH SHOWED 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF A WHOPPING 280M           
 OVER SRN CA. RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PRESENT DOWNSTREAM TO           
 THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THIS IS KEEPING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT            
 LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU SE ONTARIO HAS FORCED A COLD               
 FRONT S THRU UPPER MI INTO WI/NRN LWR MI. MEANWHILE...RIGHT ENTRANCE           
 REGION DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 100-110KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM           
 LAKE SUPERIOR TO PA HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF -SN FROM ECNTRL MN              
 ACROSS CNTRL WI IN THE VCNTY OF COLD FRONT. SNOW LINES UP WELL WITH            
 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM LATEST RUC.                                       
 WHILE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM OVER THE SW STATES JUST DRIFTS E TOWARD THE            
 SRN PLAINS BY SAT EVENING...ANY PCPN CONCERNS OVER THE UPPER LAKES             
 REGION WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY FORCING FROM UPPER JET OVER SE                
 CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. HVY PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SRN ROCKIES/SRN            
 PLAINS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL SW OF HERE THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT...           
 AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT MAY NEVER REACH ALL OR PARTS OF UPPER MI (THIS            
 HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WAS DEEMED              
 THE LEAST LIKELY SCENARIO). IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH RIGHT                 
 ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET WILL BE IN THE VCNTY PROVIDING UPPER                     
 DIVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT MORE                  
 IMPORTANTLY...MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTING TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL TEND            
 TO DRAW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE NW OVER THE PLAINS RATHER THAN           
 ALLOWING MOISTURE TO FLOW FREELY N TO THE GREAT LAKES. IN                      
 ADDITION...MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                        
 VALLEY/SCNTRL CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF SYSTEM OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN             
 PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTING UP SHOP JUST N OF              
 FCST AREA. THIS WILL ENSURE A FEED OF DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS              
 FROM THE E. FOR TODAY...BASED ON ASCENT VIEWED ON 290K SFC AND                 
 LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...-SN THAT OCCURS TODAY SHOULD BE                  
 CONFINED MAINLY TO MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL GO WITH A TIGHT POP                  
 GRADIENT THERE WITH LIKELY POPS AROUND THE CITY OF MENOMINEE AND DRY           
 WEATHER N OF HIGHWAY US-2. WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE REST           
 OF THE WI/MI BORDER AREA. MAY END UP WITH 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OF SNOW          
 AROUND MENOMINEE. ASCENT ENDS LATE AFTN THRU THE EVENING...SO WILL             
 DROP MENTION OF -SN DOWN TO JUST SLIGHT CHC TONIGHT. ASCENT                    
 REDEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI AS UPPER JET REORGANIZES AND                  
 STRENGTHENS FROM JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEW ENGLAND. EVEN                  
 SO...ASCENT IS WEAK...BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN FLAVOR OF            
 INHERITED FCST WHICH HAD CHC POPS SPREADING N ACROSS FCST AREA FRI.            
 HOWEVER...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FROM THE KEWEENAW TO THE NE FCST          
 AREA AS WEAK LIFT WILL STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE DRIER LOW LEVELS               
 THAT FAR N AND E. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PTYPE AS -SN...BUT WILL               
 CONTINUE TO MENTION MIX WITH -RA OVER ERN MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE               
 ERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP ENOUGH                    
 SFC-BASED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER FOR POSSIBLE LIQUID PCPN.                       
 FRI NIGHT/SAT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE TROFFING            
 OVER SE CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE IN THE            
 MAIN FLOW ACROSS CANADA. AT THE SAME TIME...MIDLEVEL RIDGING BTWN              
 THE SRN PLAINS SYSTEM AND THE SE CANADA TROF BUILDS/SHARPENS OVER              
 THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RESULTS            
 IN SFC HIGH PRES BECOMING MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS ONTARIO INTO           
 THE UPPER LAKES REGION. SO...AFTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENDS FRI                  
 EVENING...WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF PCPN OVERNIGHT FRI THROUGH SAT              
 NIGHT AS AIRMASS DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY THRU THE COLUMN PER GFS               
 WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF. NAM IS SLOWER TO PUSH OUT THE LOW-LEVEL           
 MOISTURE...BUT WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS GIVEN ITS SOLID TREND               
 TOWARD INCREASED DRYING IN RECENT RUNS. SO...SAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE            
 A NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN. BASED ON LATEST MEDIUM             
 RANGE GUIDANCE AND RECENT TRENDS...WILL KEEP A DRY FCST GOING THRU             
 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SAT NIGHT AT              
 LEAST 10 DEGREES FROM INHERITED FCST AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE               
 FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING (LIGHT/CALM WINDS...MINIMAL CLOUD                
 COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.15             
 INCHES TO ENHANCE COOLING).                                                    
 AT THIS POINT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE UPPER MI WILL GET BRUSHED BY THE           
 PLAINS SYSTEM AS IT WEAKENS AND LIFTS ENE...BUT IT`S NOT OUT OF THE            
 QUESTION THAT PART OF THE FCST AREA WON`T SEE ANY PCPN DUE TO THE              
 DRY AIR THAT WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE FCST AREA EARLY IN THE                 
 WEEKEND. PER BULK OF LATEST GUIDANCE...WILL BRING CHC POPS INTO THE            
 FCST AREA SUN NIGHT. EVAPORATIVE COOLING DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIRMASS            
 SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE. AS FOR AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH             
 SYSTEM WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW OVER THE PLAINS...THAT            
 CONNECTION WILL FADE WITH TIME AND DRY AIR WILL IMPACT ADVANCING               
 PCPN SHIELD. SO...WHAT LOOKED LIKE A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT           
 DOESN`T LOOK THAT WAY ANYMORE. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT                         
 ACCUMULATIONS...BUT DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. LINGERED -SN INTO        
 MON...BUT TRENDED FCST TO DRY TUE/WED WITH MILD PACIFIC FLOW AGAIN             
 DOMINATING THE PICTURE.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ROLFSON                                                                        
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 1013 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO PLAN...ALTHOUGH                 
 TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE                  
 NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THAN THOUGHT A FEW HOURS AGO...MOST LIKELY              
 DUE TO THE INFUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE                  
 FLOW. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FREEZING                  
 DRIZZLE...AS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES INFERRED FROM IR SATELLITE                 
 IMAGERY ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN OR SNOW /ESPECIALLY WHEN              
 COMPARED WITH LOWER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEASTERN                     
 MINNESOTA WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED/...PATCHY                   
 FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD STILL OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST                
 AREA TOWARD MORNING.                                                           
 THE FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION THAT HAS TAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN               
 FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MOST OF IT REMAINING              
 IN THE LIQUID FORM...ALTHOUGH A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE FROM SLEET              
 TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE. HAVE INCLUDED A                  
 NARROW MENTION OF RAIN/SLEET MIX...ROUGHLY IN THE REGION WHERE THE             
 HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES AND UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION SURFACE                       
 OBSERVATIONS ARE APPEARING. KAT                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION BAND WELL ESTABLISHED ON THE AREA 88D              
 MOSAIC...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION POISED JUST SOUTHWEST              
 OF THE FORECAST AREA. RUC FRONTOGENESIS FORECASTS SHOW THAT THIS               
 SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT...BUT SOME                
 FORCING SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE                
 AREA...LEADING TO LIGHTER /BUT STILL ACCUMULATING/ PRECIPITATION.              
 HAVE BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP IN A BAND SOUTH OF A LINE                 
 FROM MONTEVIDEO TO THE TWIN CITIES TO LADYSMITH. ATMOSPHERIC                   
 THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THREAT OF MOISTLY RAIN OR               
 DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH TAKING THE LOWER PORTION OF THE 00Z ABERDEEN                
 SOUNDING INTO ACCOUNT...LED TO A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST              
 PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE THING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE                   
 WATCHED CLOSELY IS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL THE                       
 FOG...DRIZZLE...AND RAIN AROUND. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT                     
 EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH /IF AT ALL/ DURING THE                     
 NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDINESS AND STEADY DEW POINT                     
 TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION OF                    
 FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF                  
 ISOLATED GLAZINGS DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS /WHICH IS WHY THERE               
 IS A BRIEF MENTION IN THE HWO/.                                                
 UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. KAT                        
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 USED NAM80 AS MODEL OF CHOICE THIS GO AROUND...DUE TO PLACEMENT OF             
 SNOW BAND THIS MORNING OVER N CWA...PLUS ITS HANDLING OF DEVELOPING            
 STORM SYSTEM ABOVE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. BOTH NAM AND GFS SIMILAR IN          
 INITIAL PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...BY DAWN ON MONDAY GFS DEFINITELY MORE             
 AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM...DEEPENING           
 SURFACE CYCLONE A TAD MORE AND PLACING IT OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.              
 NAM80 AT THIS TIME FRAME PARKS UPPER AND SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN              
 IA. WITH STACKED SYSTEMS ALMOST ALWAYS POISED FOR SLOW FORWARD                 
 MOMENTUM...NAM SHOULD PAN OUT NICELY. GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE              
 OF THIS PACKAGE OF COURSE WILL BE TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN FAR                  
 NORTHERN CWA AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO AN ALL SNOW EVENT LATER               
 THIS WEEKEND. WITH WEAKER NAM SURFACE LOW SOLUTION...WINDS WILL BE             
 FAIRLY LIGHT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT...ALMOST GUARANTEEING AREAS                 
 OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN FA. USED 295K ISENTROPIC                
 ANAL FOR PLACEMENT OF PCPN SHIELD FOR BRUNT OF STORM. SURFACE TO               
 500 MB THICKNESS VALUES POINT TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT OVER REMAINDER              
 OF CWA...MINUS FAR NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHT SNOW           
 IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW LOVERS WILL BE LOATHE TO HEAR BEST QPF VALUES             
 EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN IS LACKING            
 PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SERIES OF 250MB DIVERGENCE COUPLETS               
 BEGINS TO PARADE THROUGH OUR REGION BEGINNING AT 31/00Z...AND                  
 ENDING ABRUPTLY 24 HOURS LATER. DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH POTENTIAL                 
 NOT TOO TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...NOR FULL WIND 6-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC             
 FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONE PROBLEM WITH UNFOLDING WEATHER MAKER             
 IS THICKNESS VALUES WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE INCREASE PRIOR TO COLD AIR        
 INTRUSION ON SUNDAY. THUS MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS LIQUID.                
 BUFKIT...HOWEVER POINTING TO A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO FOR A GOOD               
 BRUNT OF SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF FA. SYSTEM WILL                
 FINALLY EXIT REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. SNOW TOTALS AT THIS TIME                
 .AND MAINLY ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS                
 MOST OF THE REGION.                                                            
 REMAINDER OF FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR CONTINUED INFLUX OF NORTHERN           
 PACIFIC MARITIME AIR PER EL NINO PATTERN. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL             
 ARRIVE OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  ENOUGH COLD AIR            
 IN PLACE FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...FINALLY THIS TIME FRAME. WEAK SURFACE         
 TROUGH...HOWEVER...DOES NOT BODE FOR MORE THEN A INCH OR TWO THIS SYSTEM       
 IF IT PANS OUT.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 704 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION BAND WELL ESTABLISHED ON THE AREA 88D              
 MOSAIC...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION POISED JUST SOUTHWEST              
 OF THE FORECAST AREA. RUC FRONTOGENESIS FORECASTS SHOW THAT THIS               
 SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT...BUT SOME                
 FORCING SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE                
 AREA...LEADING TO LIGHTER /BUT STILL ACCUMULATING/ PRECIPITATION.              
 HAVE BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP IN A BAND SOUTH OF A LINE                 
 FROM MONTEVIDEO TO THE TWIN CITIES TO LADYSMITH. ATMOSPHERIC                   
 THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THREAT OF MOISTLY RAIN OR               
 DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH TAKING THE LOWER PORTION OF THE 00Z ABERDEEN                
 SOUNDING INTO ACCOUNT...LED TO A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST              
 PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE THING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE                   
 WATCHED CLOSELY IS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL THE                       
 FOG...DRIZZLE...AND RAIN AROUND. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT                     
 EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH /IF AT ALL/ DURING THE                     
 NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDINESS AND STEADY DEW POINT                     
 TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION OF                    
 FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF                  
 ISOLATED GLAZINGS DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS /WHICH IS WHY THERE               
 IS A BRIEF MENTION IN THE HWO/.                                                
 UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. KAT                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 USED NAM80 AS MODEL OF CHOICE THIS GO AROUND...DUE TO PLACEMENT OF             
 SNOW BAND THIS MORNING OVER N CWA...PLUS ITS HANDLING OF DEVELOPING            
 STORM SYSTEM ABOVE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. BOTH NAM AND GFS SIMILAR IN          
 INITIAL PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...BY DAWN ON MONDAY GFS DEFINITELY MORE             
 AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM...DEEPENING           
 SURFACE CYCLONE A TAD MORE AND PLACING IT OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.              
 NAM80 AT THIS TIME FRAME PARKS UPPER AND SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN              
 IA. WITH STACKED SYSTEMS ALMOST ALWAYS POISED FOR SLOW FORWARD                 
 MOMENTUM...NAM SHOULD PAN OUT NICELY. GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE              
 OF THIS PACKAGE OF COURSE WILL BE TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN FAR                  
 NORTHERN CWA AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO AN ALL SNOW EVENT LATER               
 THIS WEEKEND. WITH WEAKER NAM SURFACE LOW SOLUTION...WINDS WILL BE             
 FAIRLY LIGHT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT...ALMOST GUARANTEEING AREAS                 
 OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN FA. USED 295K ISENTROPIC                
 ANAL FOR PLACEMENT OF PCPN SHIELD FOR BRUNT OF STORM. SURFACE TO               
 500 MB THICKNESS VALUES POINT TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT OVER REMAINDER              
 OF CWA...MINUS FAR NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHT SNOW           
 IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW LOVERS WILL BE LOATHE TO HEAR BEST QPF VALUES             
 EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN IS LACKING            
 PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SERIES OF 250MB DIVERGENCE COUPLETS               
 BEGINS TO PARADE THROUGH OUR REGION BEGINNING AT 31/00Z...AND                  
 ENDING ABRUPTLY 24 HOURS LATER. DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH POTENTIAL                 
 NOT TOO TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...NOR FULL WIND 6-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC             
 FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONE PROBLEM WITH UNFOLDING WEATHER MAKER             
 IS THICKNESS VALUES WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE INCREASE PRIOR TO COLD AIR        
 INTRUSION ON SUNDAY. THUS MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS LIQUID.                
 BUFKIT...HOWEVER POINTING TO A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO FOR A GOOD               
 BRUNT OF SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF FA. SYSTEM WILL                
 FINALLY EXIT REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. SNOW TOTALS AT THIS TIME                
 ..AND MAINLY ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS               
 MOST OF THE REGION.                                                            
 REMAINDER OF FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR CONTINUED INFLUX OF NORTHERN           
 PACIFIC MARITIME AIR PER EL NINO PATTERN. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL             
 ARRIVE OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  ENOUGH COLD AIR            
 IN PLACE FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...FINALLY THIS TIME FRAME. WEAK SURFACE         
 TROUGH...HOWEVER...DOES NOT BODE FOR MORE THEN A INCH OR TWO THIS SYSTEM       
 IF IT PANS OUT.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 723 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AIDING RELATIVELY RAPID SOUTHWARD SPREAD                
 OF LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LEADING EDGE STRETCHING             
 FROM AROUND REDWOOD FALLS...TO LAKEVILLE...TO JUST SOUTH OF RED                
 WING. THIS IS WELL MARKED BY THE 950 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY ANALYSIS             
 FROM THE LATEST RUC DATA. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DECK /ALTHOUGH CIGS             
 ARE NOT NEARLY AS LOW AS IN THE DECK CURRENTLY ATOP THE AREA/                  
 CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST /ROUGHLY EASTERN KS AND               
 NE/...IN THE WARM SECTOR OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THESE TWO                  
 AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO FORM COMPLETELY OVERCAST SKIES               
 BY EARLY MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LACK OF COOL AIR                 
 ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO SLOW THE DIURNAL COOLDOWN THIS                  
 EVENING...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM                  
 CURRENT LEVELS BY MORNING. AS A RESULT...INCREASED EXPECTED LOW                
 TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                                              
 WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT...NAM BUFKIT                   
 SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW /WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE                         
 UPSTAIRS/...BUT RATHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS LOW AND                
 MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AFFECT THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO NORTHWARD              
 MOVING SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL IOWA AT THIS TIME. REPORTS RELAYED                 
 FROM WFO ARX SUPPORT THE MODEL DATA...AND AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE              
 WITH A MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED THE SNOW              
 THAT WAS FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. HOW MUCH THE DIURNAL COOLDOWN IS                 
 SLOWED BY THE ADVANCE OF THE STRATUS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL                   
 EFFECT ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...SO THIS WILL BE                     
 MONITORED CLOSELY...WITH UPDATES FORTHCOMING AS NEEDED.                        
 UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST AND TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY AVAILABLE. KAT              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE                 
 DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EASTERLY SURFACE                    
 AIRFLOW...WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHING LOW PRESSURE                  
 SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN             
 THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT PATCHY AREAS             
 OF FOG TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.  SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE             
 OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.                                               
 AFTERWARDS...OUR FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER           
 THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO           
 THE MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODELS ARE IN LITTLE                      
 DISAGREEMENT IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.                  
 FORECAST SENARIO SEEM SIMILAR WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW                     
 CONTINUING OVER THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.                                   
 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE OR THE TRANSITION              
 FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF           
 FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND                
 CENTRAL MN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW.  NAM80 MODEL PREFERRED.           
 GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESIVE AND FASTER.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 611 AM CST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND DURATION OF                 
 PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH STORM THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL BE                   
 DIFFICULT FOR THE DEEP SWRN CONUS LOW TO LIFT NEWD THE NEXT FEWS               
 DAYS GIVEN THAT MODELS LOOK TO HAVE A SMALL REX BLOCK NORTH OF THE             
 LOW BY FRIDAY EVENING. GFS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SREF...IT`S                     
 ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE              
 ITS SOLUTION OVER THE MAV. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DELAYED THE                
 PROGESS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.                   
 IN THE NEAR TERM...GIVEN THE SLOWER ONSET OF THE STORM...HAVE SCALED           
 BACK ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY.              
 MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS STRATUS IS              
 ALREADY SHOWING UP OVER ERN OK/ERN TX EARLY THIS MORNING.  SO SKIES            
 WILL BE MO CLOUDY/CLOUDY BEGINNING TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE AS           
 WELL AS CI/CS AHEAD OF THE STORM.  HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA            
 TOMORROW AS THERE IS ONLY  MINOR LOW LEVEL FORCING/LARGE SCALE                 
 ASCENT AVAILABLE...AND HAVE SCALED BACK ON THE LIKELY POPS TO JUST             
 THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE               
 ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL                    
 MOISTURE FORCING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WARRANTS UPPING TO                
 CATEGORICAL POPS. PWATS UP TO 250% OF NORMAL WILL BE ADVECTED NWD              
 INTO THE AREA BY A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...SO SOME AREAS WILL SEE AT              
 LEAST AND INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. TSRA WITH THIS SYSTEM             
 WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE DEEP LAYER                  
 SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GFS AND SREF MUCAPES               
 ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WHILE I DO HAVE CHC             
 OF TSRA OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO               
 SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER CHC SEEMS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SYSTEM               
 WILL LIFT OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION.            
 HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES UP AS THE ONSET OF PRECIPTATION WILL BE               
 DELAYED AND I EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BRING QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR               
 WITH IT. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM ARE A COMBINATION OF GOING              
 TEMPS AND THE WARMER ETA MOS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND GFS                     
 SOUNDINGS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE                 
 COOL ENOUGH FOG SNOW BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT...SO                      
 FORECAST WILL NOT MENTION IT.                                                  
 BRITT                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...S-SELY SFC WNDS WL CONT OVR THE CWA THIS FCST               
 PERIOD BTWN SFC RDG OVR THE ERN US AND DVLPG LOW PRESSURE OVR THE              
 SRN PLAINS. SCT-BKN MID-HI LVL CLOUDINESS WILL CONT TO STREAM NEWD             
 THRU THE CWA THIS FCST PD WITH MDL TIME HGT SECTIONS DEPICTING AT              
 LEAST 60-80 PERCENT RH FM 500 MB AND ABV. MORE SIGNIFICANT IS LOW              
 LVL CLOUDINESS ARND 2000-3000 FT OVR ERN OK AND WRN AR ADVCTG NEWD             
 ATTM. LATEST RUC FCST SHOWS 80-90 PERCENT RH AT 925 MB PUSHING                 
 NEWD THRU WRN MO TDA. MDL TIME HGT SECTIONS OF RH INDICATE INCRSG              
 RH BLW 850 MB AS WELL TDA. SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY                 
 DISSIPATE WITH DRYING AND MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME HRS WITH                   
 SOLAR HTG...BUT WILL CONT PREVIOUS FCST TREND OF BRINGING A LOW                
 LVL CLOUD CEILING ARND 2500 FT INTO THE TAF SITES THIS EVNG...THEN             
 LWR THE CEILING HGT LT TGT AND INCLUDE LGT FOG.                                
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                       
 956 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 ISSUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR BOONE COUNTY AFTER DISCUSSION                
 WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALL GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST               
 NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. COOP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM AT OR JUST               
 BELOW FREEZING TEMPS FROM NORTHWEST BOONE INTO WESTERN KNOX                    
 COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN                    
 NORTHWEST ANTELOPE AND WESTERN KNOX COUNTIES...BUT RUC SOUNDING                
 FORECAST STILL PUSH NOSE OF WARM AIR OVER COLDER SURFACE TEMPS.                
 THUS FREEZING RAIN STILL MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AS WE PUSH LATER              
 INTO THE NIGHT. A VERY SUBTLE WIND SHIFT WAS NOTED ON SURFACE                  
 CHARTS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH FAR NORTHWEST CWA SEEING LOW              
 LEVEL FLOW JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTH...AND COOLER TEMPS BEING                  
 ADVECTED IN. WINDS FROM A NORFOLK TO COLUMBUS LINE HAD WINDS JUST              
 EAST OF NORTH...AND THIS FLOW WOULD KEEP TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AT               
 OR ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT. THUS HAVE NOT EXPANDED ADVISORIES ANY             
 FARTHER EAST THE OUR FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.                             
 STILL LOOKING AT PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH              
 APPROACH OF UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 HAVE CHANGED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR OUR TWO FAR NORTHWEST              
 COUNTIES TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH AN IMMEDIATE START TIME.            
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 INVERTED TROUGH REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING...                
 WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 50S IN SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE EAST                
 WINDS PREVAILED. NORTH WINDS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WERE KEEPING                  
 TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. HOWEVER DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR             
 SPILLING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES                  
 THERE IN THE MID 20S. HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF ACCUMULATING                 
 SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS OF WESTERN KNOX AND ANTELOPE COUNTIES.                    
 TEMPERATURES FROM ASOS SITES AND COOP OBSERVERS SUGGEST SURFACE                
 AIR IS AT OR JUST GOING BELOW FREEZING IN THESE SAME AREAS.                    
 COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ROTATING INVERTED TROUGH           
 WEST OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED INFUSION OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR                
 FROM THE WEST...SUGGESTS TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN IN THE FAR          
 NORTHWEST CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS                  
 POINT TO WARM ABOVE-SURFACE AIR CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO LIQUID BY              
 LATE THIS EVENING. THUS FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP                
 TYPE THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY DELAY IN WARM AIR ARRIVING WILL LEAD            
 TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW OR SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO                    
 FREEZING RAIN...WHICH WOULD BE THE BETTER OF TWO EVILS. WILL HAVE              
 TO MONITOR THIS CHANGEOVER AS A QUICKER SWITCH TO FREEZING                     
 RAIN...COMBINED WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER                
 MIDNIGHT AS ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SPREADS INTO THE                         
 PLAINS...WOULD POINT TO THE POTENTIAL OF MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH              
 OF ICE AND AN UPGRADE TO AN ICE STORM WARNING.                                 
 DERGAN                                                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/                         
 SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                          
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WAS NEAR EL                 
 PASO TX AT 20Z THIS AFTN. CLOSER TO HOME...SFC INVERTED TROF                   
 CURRENTLY EXTENDED FM CNTRL KS NEWD INTO SE NEB AND INTO WRN IA.               
 THIS INVERTED TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LO WILL BE THE                   
 PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE PERIOD. MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL             
 DATA ARE CONSISTENT THAT MUCH OF THE SFC FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED              
 WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALNG THE INVERTED TROF. CROSS SECTIONS THRU                
 THE INVERTED TROF INDC MUCH OF THE PV ADVECTION/TMP ADVECTION IS               
 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH LEADS TO MUCH OF THE LIFT               
 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS FOR TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT                
 PRECIP TO CONT TO LINE UP ALONG THE INVERTED TROF OVR CNTRL NEB                
 INTO NE NEBRASKA. AGEO CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED                
 TROF IS FAIRLY INTENSE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE                
 THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF. THIS LEADS TO CONCERNS              
 WITH TMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TMPS AS OF 21Z                 
 RUNNING IN THE MID 30S. WOULD EXPECT TMPS TO DROP OFF A COUPLE OF              
 DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH THIS INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE                 
 WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS THERE IS SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL               
 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS SOME RELATIVELY COOLER AIR                 
 GETS PULLED SWD INTO KNOX/ANTELOPE COUNTIES. THUS HAVE ISSUED A                
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS. PV ON THE 305              
 K SFC OVERLAID ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AS IN THE             
 LAST BIG UPPER LOW...THIS ONE IS NEARLY CUT OFF FROM ANY COLD AIR              
 SUPPLY TO THE NORTH AND THUS WOULD THINK THE FREEZING RAIN                     
 POTENTIAL IS LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE WITH NO ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE.               
 THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY THOUGH AS THE                        
 FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES ALONG THE TROUGH. TO THE EAST OF THE TROF              
 OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...EXPECT MORE OF A WARM             
 NIGHT WITH A DRIZZLE FEST ONGOING. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FAIRLY                
 SIG IN THESE AREAS AT LEAST THRU 09Z SAT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR               
 PRECIP.                                                                        
 STRONGER FORCING WILL ENTER THE CWA ON SAT AS 130 KT JET WHICH WAS             
 OVR SRN CA AT 12Z THIS MRNG ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF AND EJECTS             
 INTO THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME STG PRES ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PVU                
 SFC ALNG WITH DECENT DPVA NOTED. THUS WILL CONT WITH THE DEF POPS              
 FOR SAT. AS THE INVERTED TROF BACKS TO THE WEST WITH THE STG                   
 WAA...SHLD SEE TMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY ON SAT WITH ALL             
 RAIN THEN OVR THE ENTIRE CWA. STILL EXPECTING SOME HEALTHY AMOUNTS             
 WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INVERTED TROF WITH AMOUNTS             
 OVR 1 INCH EXPECTED. NAM/GFS DIFFER THEN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE               
 UPPER LOW ONCE THE MAIN JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF...AND              
 WILL CONT TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE GFS. DRYSLOT MAY START TO EFFECT             
 THE SRN CWA ON SAT NIGHT AS SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE NE INTO ERN KS.              
 WILL CONT WITH THE DEF POPS FOR ALL BUT THE SRN CWA AS DOWNSTREAM              
 JET REMAINS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND PUTS CWA IN FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR           
 ENTRANCE REGION...AS WELL AS TROP LEVEL PRES ADVECTION CONTS. WILL             
 START TO TRANSITION THE RAIN TO RA/SN/FZRA AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT                  
 NIGHT IN THE NW CWA AS INVERTED TROF STARTS TO MOV A LITTLE BACK               
 TO THE EAST. PRECIP WL LIKELY BECOME ALL SNOW OVR WRN                          
 KNOX/ANTELOPE COUNTIES BY 12Z SUN WITH THE RA/SN LINE MAKING SOME              
 PROGRESS EWD DURING THE DAY. WILL LEAVE ALNG THE MO RVR E ALL RAIN             
 THRU SUN WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS AND A CONTD LACK OF                   
 CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR AROUND. SOME TROWEL DEVELOPMENT IS VISIBLE ON              
 THE 305KE SFC OVR NE NEBRASKA ON SUN AND CROSS SECTIONS THRU THIS              
 INDC ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS ARND 600 MB WITH GOOD LIFT INDICATED               
 IN THE FN VECTORS AT 550 MB. THUS IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE MUCH IN               
 THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE IN THAT AREA LATE             
 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND HAVE INDICATED 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE                   
 GRIDS. FARTHER EAST...NO EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION AS ANY                
 SNOW WOULD BE OCCURRING AS THE PRECIP IS ENDING SUN EVENING AND                
 HAVE PUSHED ANY SNOW WORDING BACK TO SUN EVNG ALNG THE MO RIVER                
 AND POINTS EAST.                                                               
 LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                      
 SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WHILE            
 A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A SEPARATE              
 NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY                   
 TUESDAY. THIS NORTHERN STREAM LOW OPENS AND PUSHES A WEAK TROF                 
 THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING PERHAPS A           
 FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW             
 REMAINS FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND DOES NOT AFFECT OUR AREA.                         
 COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH  MOVES           
 OVER THE REGION. LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP INTO THE 10-15F           
 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY EARLY ON                   
 WEDNESDAY SO A REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF           
 THE PERIOD.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NE...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ030.               
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ011-016.          
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BOUSTEAD/GRIFFIS                                                               
</pre> ne                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                           
 926 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT REMAINS SURFACE TEMPERATURES               
 AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY SPOTS WILL RECEIVE ADVISORY LEVEL FREEZING              
 RAIN OR DRIZZLE. SURFACE PLOTS OF THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS                     
 INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH                    
 DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES RISING IN MANY SPOTS. THE ONLY AREA                 
 HOLDING BACK AT THIS POINT IS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER A               
 GLANCE AT THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT EVEN THOSE SPOTS MAY GAIN A                
 DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE                 
 FORECAST SINCE THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE AT KLXN IS 32F. HAVE                    
 DEBATED THE MERITS OF ISSUING A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A SMALL             
 PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST CWA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT                 
 VERY HIGH IN THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME...AND PLAN IS TO WAIT AND SEE                
 IF THE TEMPERATURES RISE IN THE NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE                      
 ACCUMULATING RAINFALL ARRIVES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND BE               
 READY TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF THE TEMPERATURES DO NOT RESPOND.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006/                        
 SHORT TERM...THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.                                           
 FORECAST HAS BEEN AND STILL IS THIS MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM SET TO                
 BRING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN TERMS            
 OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THIS IS LIKELY A DAILY RECORD BREAKING...           
 AND 3-DAY RECORD BREAKING EVENT /DEC. 29-31/. MANY OF THE DECEMBER             
 29TH DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS WERE SET WAY BACK IN 1906...WITH              
 A SIMILAR UNSEASONABLY WARM STORM AND HEAVY RAIN. IT LIKELY THAT               
 MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWFA WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER             
 EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. ENSEMBLE               
 DATA HAS A PRECIPITATION WATER OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE             
 NORMAL FOR THE DATE...WHICH IS A WHOLE NOTCH HIGHER THAN THE LAST              
 STORM...DURING WHICH EVERYONE MEASURED ABOUT 1 TO 1.25 INCHES.                 
 THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST IS ALL THE WARM AIR WHICH                
 IS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM. UNLIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...THE RAIN AREA              
 LOOKS A LOT WARMER...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE 40S. THE RISK             
 FOR FREEZING RAIN IS REARING ITS HEAD AGAIN...AS THE WARM LAYER                
 HAS NOW DEEPENED...AND MUCH OF THE AREA FROM ORD...TO HOLDREGE AND             
 EITHER SIDE OF THAT LINE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ICING.             
 GROUND IS 4 DEGREES COLDER AT 4 INCH SOIL DEPTH THIS WEEK THAN LAST            
 WEEK...SO THE ICE ISSUE MAY BE A BIGGER PLAYER. NOW...THERE ARE ALSO           
 MODELS WHICH DON/T MUCH OF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ICE...SO THE                 
 UNCERTAINTY IS RAMPANT. EXPECT THE NEXT MODEL RUN AND SHIFT WILL               
 LIKELY HAVE TO IS ADJUST CURRENT WATCH...AND POSSIBLY BUFFER WITH A            
 FRZA ADVISORY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. MOST OF           
 THE AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WILL REMAIN RAIN...WITH THAT FZRA AREA            
 JUST WEST OF 281 POSSIBLY SLIPPING BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY                 
 SATURDAY.                                                                      
 AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMES OUT INTO KANSAS SATURDAY AND                       
 SATURDAY NIGHT IT DEEPEN WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS. THE TRACK IS                
 PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF SNOW FORMING ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE              
 OF THE LOW...WHICH PUTS OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PATH. AT THIS                 
 TIME...AVERAGE OF ABOUT 3 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE FOR SNOWFALL                 
 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE MORE...ITS                
 JUST VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.                                               
 FINALLY...BACK TO TONIGHT...SOME CONCERN REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE            
 AND FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AREA OF               
 UPPER MOTION SET TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA...WITH WEDGE OF DRY                   
 AIR...AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE BY MIDNIGHT. THE FAR WESTERN           
 CWFA IS CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...AND WILL BE HANGING AROUND THAT              
 TEMPERATURE ALL NIGHT. ONE PROBLEM IS THERE SEEMS TO BE NO REASON              
 FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH BELOW 32...SO ICING THINGS UP MAY NOT            
 BE A BIG PLAYER. TEMPS ALSO FORECAST TO LIFT SOME BY MID MORNING               
 FRIDAY. THE CWFA IS SET TO  SEE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND               
 VISIBILITIES COULD APPROACH DENSE FOG ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.            
 LONG TERM...18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM TURNS INTO A                
 DEEP DYNAMIC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING              
 HOURS SUNDAY.  THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE                   
 FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE                    
 NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE             
 THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL BANDS FORMING WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AS            
 THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING              
 OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.                               
 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WEST OF HIGHWAY                  
 281...BUT THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO                   
 PINPOINT. OTHER CONCERN IS THE ABUNDANCE OF WARM AIR WRAPPING UP               
 INTO THE SYSTEM AND THIS COULD PROLONG THE RAINFALL BEFORE CHANGING            
 OVER TO ALL SNOW. WHILE THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE                      
 LOCATION...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY ON THE              
 LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL EXTEND IN A                
 SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WELL           
 PRONOUNCED TRANSITION FROM HEAVY SNOW TO NO SNOW.                              
 FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT              
 THROUGH MONDAY MORNIGN.                                                        
 IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY           
 IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY                   
      AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039-060-072-082.                                         
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ne                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                           
 330 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.                                          
 FORECAST HAS BEEN AND STILL IS THIS MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM SET TO                
 BRING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN TERMS            
 OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THIS IS LIKELY A DAILY RECORD BREAKING...           
 AND 3-DAY RECORD BREAKING EVENT /DEC. 29-31/. MANY OF THE DECEMBER             
 29TH DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS WERE SET WAY BACK IN 1906...WITH              
 A SIMILAR UNSEASONABLY WARM STORM AND HEAVY RAIN. IT LIKELY THAT               
 MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWFA WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER             
 EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. ENSEMBLE               
 DATA HAS A PRECIPITATION WATER OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE             
 NORMAL FOR THE DATE...WHICH IS A WHOLE NOTCH HIGHER THAN THE LAST              
 STORM...DURING WHICH EVERYONE MEASURED ABOUT 1 TO 1.25 INCHES.                 
 THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST IS ALL THE WARM AIR WHICH                
 IS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM. UNLIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...THE RAIN AREA              
 LOOKS A LOT WARMER...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE 40S. THE RISK             
 FOR FREEZING RAIN IS REARING ITS HEAD AGAIN...AS THE WARM LAYER                
 HAS NOW DEEPENED...AND MUCH OF THE AREA FROM ORD...TO HOLDREGE AND             
 EITHER SIDE OF THAT LINE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ICING.             
 GROUND IS 4 DEGREES COLDER AT 4 INCH SOIL DEPTH THIS WEEK THAN LAST            
 WEEK...SO THE ICE ISSUE MAY BE A BIGGER PLAYER. NOW...THERE ARE ALSO           
 MODELS WHICH DON/T MUCH OF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ICE...SO THE                 
 UNCERTAINTY IS RAMPANT. EXPECT THE NEXT MODEL RUN AND SHIFT WILL               
 LIKELY HAVE TO IS ADJUST CURRENT WATCH...AND POSSIBLY BUFFER WITH A            
 FRZA ADVISORY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. MOST OF           
 THE AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WILL REMAIN RAIN...WITH THAT FZRA AREA            
 JUST WEST OF 281 POSSIBLY SLIPPING BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY                 
 SATURDAY.                                                                      
 AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMES OUT INTO KANSAS SATURDAY AND                       
 SATURDAY NIGHT IT DEEPEN WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS. THE TRACK IS                
 PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF SNOW FORMING ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE              
 OF THE LOW...WHICH PUTS OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PATH. AT THIS                 
 TIME...AVERAGE OF ABOUT 3 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE FOR SNOWFALL                 
 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE MORE...ITS                
 JUST VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.                                               
 FINALLY...BACK TO TONIGHT...SOME CONCERN REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE            
 AND FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AREA OF               
 UPPER MOTION SET TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA...WITH WEDGE OF DRY                   
 AIR...AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE BY MIDNIGHT. THE FAR WESTERN           
 CWFA IS CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...AND WILL BE HANGING AROUND THAT              
 TEMPERATURE ALL NIGHT. ONE PROBLEM IS THERE SEEMS TO BE NO REASON              
 FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH BELOW 32...SO ICING THINGS UP MAY NOT            
 BE A BIG PLAYER. TEMPS ALSO FORECAST TO LIFT SOME BY MID MORNING               
 FRIDAY. THE CWFA IS SET TO  SEE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND               
 VISIBILITIES COULD APPROACH DENSE FOG ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.            
 .LONG TERM...18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM TURNS INTO A               
 DEEP DYNAMIC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING              
 HOURS SUNDAY.  THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE                   
 FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE                    
 NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE             
 THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL BANDS FORMING WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AS            
 THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING              
 OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.                               
 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WEST OF HIGHWAY                  
 281...BUT THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO                   
 PINPOINT. OTHER CONCERN IS THE ABUNDANCE OF WARM AIR WRAPPING UP               
 INTO THE SYSTEM AND THIS COULD PROLONG THE RAINFALL BEFORE CHANGING            
 OVER TO ALL SNOW. WHILE THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE                      
 LOCATION...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY ON THE              
 LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL EXTEND IN A                
 SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WELL           
 PRONOUNCED TRANSITION FROM HEAVY SNOW TO NO SNOW.                              
 FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT              
 THROUGH MONDAY MORNIGN.                                                        
 IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY           
 IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY                   
      AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039-060-072-082.                                         
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 MLM/MSL                                                                        
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ne                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                         
 953 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGE IS TO                
 REMOVE WORDING OF FLURRIES NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING. LAKE              
 BAND HAS WEAKENED...BUT IS STILL PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS OVER                    
 WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE FORECAST.              
 OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH               
 ONLY OTHER TWEAK TO MAKE SKIES SUNNY ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE                  
 CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY. TREND NOW APPEARS             
 FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT COULD PRODUCE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER             
 A LARGER AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WAIT FOR ALL              
 NEW DATA TO COME IN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL ASSESSMENT.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006/                        
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FLURRIES ACRS NORTHERN NEW           
 YORK AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ZNS...ALONG WITH ADJUSTING THE SKY                
 COVER GRIDS TO MOSTLY CLR. HOWEVER...BASED ON CRNT SAT PICS AND                
 BURLINGTON WEB CAM DATA...ALONG WITH CRNT RADAR TRENDS HAVE MENTION            
 SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THE CPV ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE EFFECT OFF FROM            
 LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO...HAVE TRIED TO PLACE HIGHER POPS...QPF...AND             
 SNOW AMOUNT IN THE GRIDS BTWN SHELBURNE AND FERRISBURG IN SOUTHERN             
 CHITTENDEN AND NORTHERN ADDISON COUNTIES...FOR THE POINT AND CLICK             
 FCST USERS. CXX VAD SHOWS NORTHERLY FLW...(WHICH PROVIDES AIR PARCEL           
 WITH LONGEST FETCH OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN) THROUGH 3KFT WITH LIMITED              
 SHEAR. IN ADDITION...SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM LAND BREEZE IS NOTED           
 WITH BTV SFC WNDS AT 36007KT...WHILE PLB IS 33005KT WHICH IS HELPING           
 TO ENHANCE WEAK SNOW BAND WITH DBZ RETURNS NEAR 25 OFF THE CXX                 
 RADAR. KWMW SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWS 925MB TEMPS AT -14C...WHICH                
 COMBINED WITH LAKE WATER TEMP OF 4C IS CREATING A MODERATELY                   
 UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HELPING WITH CLOUD/MOISTURE DEVELOPMENT.              
 HOWEVER...EXPECT DRY AIR AND LWRING INVERSION...ALONG WITH SOME SFC            
 HEATING TO DISSIPATE THE LAKE BAND BY LATE MORNING/EARLY                       
 AFTN...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LOCAL STUDIES. BASED ON ABOVE                     
 PARAMETERS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO RECEIVE A REPORT OR TWO NEAR              
 FERRISBURG OR CHARLOTTE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW THIS                   
 MORNING.                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006/                         
 SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
 BIG PICTURE SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NE CONUS WITH CONFLUENT NW           
 FLW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD OVER THE             
 CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF DEEP CUTOFF CIRCULATION OVER THE SW CONUS.             
 THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS AND STRONG JET STREAM            
 COUPLETS WL ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY. THIS             
 LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED ULVL CIRCULATION WL INFLUENCE OUR FA EARLY             
 NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN                    
 PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WL DROP ALONG A SFC WARM FRNT ON SATURDAY AND           
 DELIVERY ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW.                                     
 OVERALL...GFS/NAM INITIALIZED WELL WITH ULVL FEATURES ACRS THE                 
 EASTERN CONUS...BUT CONTS TO BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES TOO WARM AT 925MB AT            
 MANIWAKI BASED ON 00Z RAOB DATA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONT TO HAVE             
 DIFFICULTIES WITH LEFTOVER LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK                  
 UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR CWA THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOME LAKE INSTABILITY            
 FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND NORTHERLY FLW DOWN THE CPV HAS HELPED TO               
 PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AT BTV THIS MORNING. CRNT IR SAT PICS CONT TO            
 SHOWS LLVL CLOUDS ACRS THE DACKS/WESTERN GREEN MTNS...WHICH HAVE               
 KEPT TEMPS IN THE M/U TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER....WITH                 
 1040MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO FA AND LLVL DRY AIR                         
 ADVECTION...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO               
 FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NNY.             
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
 SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WL SHIFT EAST              
 TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS WL PROVIDE FA WITH SOME                   
 SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPS BASED ON NORTHERLY FLW AND PROGGED 925MB             
 TEMPS NEAR -10C. LIKE PREVIOUS FCSTER IDEA OF COOLER TEMPS IN THE              
 DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BASED ON LLVL NATURE OF COLD AIRMASS             
 AND WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE TEMP IN THE              
 LOWER 40S AND LLVL COLD AIR MASS ON NORTHERLY FLW...THIS COULD                 
 PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV THIS MORNING. IR            
 SAT PIC AND VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME HIGH WISPY CIRRUS THAT MAY IMPACT            
 OUR CWA FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED INFLUENCE            
 ON SKY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS             
 FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MAINLY HIGH              
 LVL MOISTURE EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS           
 WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER             
 GUIDANCE NUMBERS...SINGLE DIGITS DEEPER VALLEYS TO TEENS BTV/RUT.              
 SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS NE CONUS               
 WITH                                                                           
 EMBEDDED 5H VORT PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS OUR CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE            
 GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THIS FEATURE...BUT HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN                 
 PLACEMENT OF BEST PVA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/QPF. THE GFS TAKES THE           
 BEST LIFT/MOISTURE AND QPF ACRS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE NAM SHOWS             
 THIS FEATURE TRACKING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS ON SATURDAY WITH           
 QPF NEAR 0.25 AT BTV...SLK...AND MPV. GIVEN...QUICK MOVEMENT OF                
 SYSTEM...LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN NW FLW (PWS AROUND                   
 0.30)...AND THE LACK OF STRONG FGEN FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WL            
 MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE           
 IN THE FAVORABLE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UVV`S...AND           
 SEVERAL ELONGATED OR SPOKES OF FGEN FORCING/PVA MOVING ACRS OUR CWA            
 ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED VALLEYS PICK UP A              
 QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW...WHILE MTNS ZNS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 3                 
 INCHES BY SATURDAY EVENING. UPSLOPE FLW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE                  
 SATURDAY EVENING COULD PROLONG SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL             
 MTNS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GENERAL CLRING TREND FROM WEST           
 TO EAST WITH LLVL CAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL TO -10C BY 12Z                   
 SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH CLRING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER WL              
 DROP TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                  
 SUNDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA              
 ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE IN THE TRACK OF THIS                 
 FEATURE...BUT HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES. THE NAM IS SLOWER BY 6 TO 8             
 HRS AND HOLDS ONTO THE LLVL COLD AIR LONGER WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER           
 WITH BRING THE SFC HIGH INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z MONDAY AND             
 MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LLVL WAA AND SPREADING CLOUDS TOWARD OUR                  
 REGION. GIVEN...WELL ESTABLISHED NW FLOW ALOFT AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR           
 MASS IN PLACE WL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION FOR                      
 SUNDAY...BUT WL SHOW AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO               
 EAST. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -6C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C SUPPORT            
 HIGHS L/M 30S MOST LOCATIONS.                                                  
 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
 OVERALL EXTENDED FCST IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS           
 TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS. WL ADJUST THEM UP SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON NEW           
 GUIDANCE AND THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA.           
 OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIP MIXED PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACRS OUR           
 FA ON MONDAY...THAT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY ON                 
 MONDAY. INTERESTING THERMAL PROFILE WITH LLVL COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE            
 TO START WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR -1C...BUT STRONG LLVL WAA PUSHES 830MB            
 TEMPS TO 8C AT SLK BY 15Z MONDAY. THIS VERY WARM THERMAL RIDGE                 
 COMBINED WITH INCREASED SFC MIXING AND THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TO             
 OUR WEST SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL RAIN...THEN BACK TO A                
 BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WITH            
 A WARM SOUTHERLY FLW COULD APPROACH 40 ACRS THE CPV ON MONDAY.                 
 COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TUES INTO WEDS           
 OF NEXT WEEK.                                                                  
 AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...                                  
 AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS...AND ISOLD IFR CEILINGS /INCLUDING OVC007 AT           
 KSLK AT 06Z/ ARE NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN 00Z NAM OR GFS MODEL                  
 SOUNDINGS. THE RUC DOES SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SFC            
 AT KSLK...WHICH BECOMES LESS PRONOUNCED AFTER 9Z. IT APPEARS FROM              
 OBSERVATIONS THAT A SHALLOW COLD FRONT MAY BE WORKING SWD ACROSS THE           
 CHAMPLAIN VLY AT 07Z...PRODUCING A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AND THE BAND OF           
 LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. IN THE TAFS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LESS                  
 LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO              
 DETERMINE. ONCE INVERSION BREAK BY 14Z...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD               
 COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. SFC HIGH TO OUR NW SETTLES ACROSS THE FA 00Z             
 SATURDAY. LIGHT NLY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BECOME                 
 NEARLY CALM AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY                   
 RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AND ANY CEILINGS SHOULD             
 BE VFR /MOSTLY CIRRUS/ ONCE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING.           
 &&                                                                             
 .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VT...NONE.                                                                     
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...EVENSON                                                           
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                         
 656 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FLURRIES ACRS NORTHERN NEW           
 YORK AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ZNS...ALONG WITH ADJUSTING THE SKY                
 COVER GRIDS TO MOSTLY CLR. HOWEVER...BASED ON CRNT SAT PICS AND                
 BURLINGTON WEB CAM DATA...ALONG WITH CRNT RADAR TRENDS HAVE MENTION            
 SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THE CPV ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE EFFECT OFF FROM            
 LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO...HAVE TRIED TO PLACE HIGHER POPS...QPF...AND             
 SNOW AMOUNT IN THE GRIDS BTWN SHELBURNE AND FERRISBURG IN SOUTHERN             
 CHITTENDEN AND NORTHERN ADDISON COUNTIES...FOR THE POINT AND CLICK             
 FCST USERS. CXX VAD SHOWS NORTHERLY FLW...(WHICH PROVIDES AIR PARCEL           
 WITH LONGEST FETCH OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN) THROUGH 3KFT WITH LIMITED              
 SHEAR. IN ADDITION...SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM LAND BREEZE IS NOTED           
 WITH BTV SFC WNDS AT 36007KT...WHILE PLB IS 33005KT WHICH IS HELPING           
 TO ENHANCE WEAK SNOW BAND WITH DBZ RETURNS NEAR 25 OFF THE CXX                 
 RADAR. KWMW SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWS 925MB TEMPS AT -14C...WHICH                
 COMBINED WITH LAKE WATER TEMP OF 4C IS CREATING A MODERATELY                   
 UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HELPING WITH CLOUD/MOISTURE DEVELOPMENT.              
 HOWEVER...EXPECT DRY AIR AND LWRING INVERSION...ALONG WITH SOME SFC            
 HEATING TO DISSIPATE THE LAKE BAND BY LATE MORNING/EARLY                       
 AFTN...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LOCAL STUDIES. BASED ON ABOVE                     
 PARAMETERS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO RECEIVE A REPORT OR TWO NEAR              
 FERRISBURG OR CHARLOTTE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW THIS                   
 MORNING.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006/                        
 SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
 BIG PICTURE SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NE CONUS WITH CONFLUENT NW           
 FLW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD OVER THE             
 CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF DEEP CUTOFF CIRCULATION OVER THE SW CONUS.             
 THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS AND STRONG JET STREAM            
 COUPLETS WL ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY. THIS             
 LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED ULVL CIRCULATION WL INFLUENCE OUR FA EARLY             
 NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN                    
 PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WL DROP ALONG A SFC WARM FRNT ON SATURDAY AND           
 DELIVERY ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW.                                     
 OVERALL...GFS/NAM INITIALIZED WELL WITH ULVL FEATURES ACRS THE                 
 EASTERN CONUS...BUT CONTS TO BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES TOO WARM AT 925MB AT            
 MANIWAKI BASED ON 00Z RAOB DATA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONT TO HAVE             
 DIFFICULTIES WITH LEFTOVER LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK                  
 UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR CWA THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOME LAKE INSTABILITY            
 FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND NORTHERLY FLW DOWN THE CPV HAS HELPED TO               
 PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AT BTV THIS MORNING. CRNT IR SAT PICS CONT TO            
 SHOWS LLVL CLOUDS ACRS THE DACKS/WESTERN GREEN MTNS...WHICH HAVE               
 KEPT TEMPS IN THE M/U TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER....WITH                 
 1040MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO FA AND LLVL DRY AIR                         
 ADVECTION...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO               
 FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NNY.             
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
 SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WL SHIFT EAST              
 TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS WL PROVIDE FA WITH SOME                   
 SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPS BASED ON NORTHERLY FLW AND PROGGED 925MB             
 TEMPS NEAR -10C. LIKE PREVIOUS FCSTER IDEA OF COOLER TEMPS IN THE              
 DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BASED ON LLVL NATURE OF COLD AIRMASS             
 AND WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE TEMP IN THE              
 LOWER 40S AND LLVL COLD AIR MASS ON NORTHERLY FLW...THIS COULD                 
 PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV THIS MORNING. IR            
 SAT PIC AND VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME HIGH WISPY CIRRUS THAT MAY IMPACT            
 OUR CWA FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED INFLUENCE            
 ON SKY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS             
 FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MAINLY HIGH              
 LVL MOISTURE EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS           
 WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER             
 GUIDANCE NUMBERS...SINGLE DIGITS DEEPER VALLEYS TO TEENS BTV/RUT.              
 SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS NE CONUS               
 WITH                                                                           
 EMBEDDED 5H VORT PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS OUR CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE            
 GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THIS FEATURE...BUT HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN                 
 PLACEMENT OF BEST PVA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/QPF. THE GFS TAKES THE           
 BEST LIFT/MOISTURE AND QPF ACRS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE NAM SHOWS             
 THIS FEATURE TRACKING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS ON SATURDAY WITH           
 QPF NEAR 0.25 AT BTV...SLK...AND MPV. GIVEN...QUICK MOVEMENT OF                
 SYSTEM...LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN NW FLW (PWS AROUND                   
 0.30)...AND THE LACK OF STRONG FGEN FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WL            
 MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE           
 IN THE FAVORABLE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UVV`S...AND           
 SEVERAL ELONGATED OR SPOKES OF FGEN FORCING/PVA MOVING ACRS OUR CWA            
 ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED VALLEYS PICK UP A              
 QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW...WHILE MTNS ZNS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 3                 
 INCHES BY SATURDAY EVENING. UPSLOPE FLW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE                  
 SATURDAY EVENING COULD PROLONG SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL             
 MTNS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GENERAL CLRING TREND FROM WEST           
 TO EAST WITH LLVL CAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL TO -10C BY 12Z                   
 SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH CLRING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER WL              
 DROP TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                  
 SUNDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA              
 ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE IN THE TRACK OF THIS                 
 FEATURE...BUT HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES. THE NAM IS SLOWER BY 6 TO 8             
 HRS AND HOLDS ONTO THE LLVL COLD AIR LONGER WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER           
 WITH BRING THE SFC HIGH INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z MONDAY AND             
 MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LLVL WAA AND SPREADING CLOUDS TOWARD OUR                  
 REGION. GIVEN...WELL ESTABLISHED NW FLOW ALOFT AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR           
 MASS IN PLACE WL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION FOR                      
 SUNDAY...BUT WL SHOW AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO               
 EAST. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -6C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C SUPPORT            
 HIGHS L/M 30S MOST LOCATIONS.                                                  
 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
 OVERALL EXTENDED FCST IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS           
 TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS. WL ADJUST THEM UP SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON NEW           
 GUIDANCE AND THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA.           
 OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIP MIXED PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACRS OUR           
 FA ON MONDAY...THAT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY ON                 
 MONDAY. INTERESTING THERMAL PROFILE WITH LLVL COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE            
 TO START WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR -1C...BUT STRONG LLVL WAA PUSHES 830MB            
 TEMPS TO 8C AT SLK BY 15Z MONDAY. THIS VERY WARM THERMAL RIDGE                 
 COMBINED WITH INCREASED SFC MIXING AND THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TO             
 OUR WEST SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL RAIN...THEN BACK TO A                
 BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WITH            
 A WARM SOUTHERLY FLW COULD APPROACH 40 ACRS THE CPV ON MONDAY.                 
 COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TUES INTO WEDS           
 OF NEXT WEEK.                                                                  
 AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...                                  
 AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS...AND ISOLD IFR CEILINGS /INCLUDING OVC007 AT           
 KSLK AT 06Z/ ARE NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN 00Z NAM OR GFS MODEL                  
 SOUNDINGS. THE RUC DOES SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SFC            
 AT KSLK...WHICH BECOMES LESS PRONOUNCED AFTER 9Z. IT APPEARS FROM              
 OBSERVATIONS THAT A SHALLOW COLD FRONT MAY BE WORKING SWD ACROSS THE           
 CHAMPLAIN VLY AT 07Z...PRODUCING A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AND THE BAND OF           
 LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. IN THE TAFS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LESS                  
 LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO              
 DETERMINE. ONCE INVERSION BREAK BY 14Z...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD               
 COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. SFC HIGH TO OUR NW SETTLES ACROSS THE FA 00Z             
 SATURDAY. LIGHT NLY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BECOME                 
 NEARLY CALM AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY                   
 RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AND ANY CEILINGS SHOULD             
 BE VFR /MOSTLY CIRRUS/ ONCE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING.           
 &&                                                                             
 .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VT...NONE.                                                                     
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...TABER                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                         
 335 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY ARE                
 SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS                                                       
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 BIG PICTURE SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NE CONUS WITH CONFLUENT NW           
 FLW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD OVER THE             
 CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF DEEP CUTOFF CIRCULATION OVER THE SW CONUS.             
 THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS AND STRONG JET STREAM            
 COUPLETS WL ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY. THIS             
 LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED ULVL CIRCULATION WL INFLUENCE OUR FA EARLY             
 NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN                    
 PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WL DROP ALONG A SFC WARM FRNT ON SATURDAY AND           
 DELIVERY ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW.                                     
 OVERALL...GFS/NAM INITIALIZED WELL WITH ULVL FEATURES ACRS THE                 
 EASTERN CONUS...BUT CONTS TO BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES TOO WARM AT 925MB AT            
 MANIWAKI BASED ON 00Z RAOB DATA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONT TO HAVE             
 DIFFICULTIES WITH LEFTOVER LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK                  
 UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR CWA THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOME LAKE INSTABILITY            
 FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND NORTHERLY FLW DOWN THE CPV HAS HELPED TO               
 PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AT BTV THIS MORNING. CRNT IR SAT PICS CONT TO            
 SHOWS LLVL CLOUDS ACRS THE DACKS/WESTERN GREEN MTNS...WHICH HAVE               
 KEPT TEMPS IN THE M/U TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER....WITH                 
 1040MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO FA AND LLVL DRY AIR                         
 ADVECTION...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO               
 FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NNY.             
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
 SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WL SHIFT EAST              
 TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS WL PROVIDE FA WITH SOME                   
 SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPS BASED ON NORTHERLY FLW AND PROGGED 925MB             
 TEMPS NEAR -10C. LIKE PREVIOUS FCSTER IDEA OF COOLER TEMPS IN THE              
 DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BASED ON LLVL NATURE OF COLD AIRMASS             
 AND WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE TEMP IN THE              
 LOWER 40S AND LLVL COLD AIR MASS ON NORTHERLY FLW...THIS COULD                 
 PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV THIS MORNING. IR            
 SAT PIC AND VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME HIGH WISPY CIRRUS THAT MAY IMPACT            
 OUR CWA FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED INFLUENCE            
 ON SKY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS             
 FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MAINLY HIGH              
 LVL MOISTURE EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS           
 WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER             
 GUIDANCE NUMBERS...SINGLE DIGITS DEEPER VALLEYS TO TEENS BTV/RUT.              
 SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS NE CONUS               
 WITH                                                                           
 EMBEDDED 5H VORT PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS OUR CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE            
 GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THIS FEATURE...BUT HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN                 
 PLACEMENT OF BEST PVA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/QPF. THE GFS TAKES THE           
 BEST LIFT/MOISTURE AND QPF ACRS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE NAM SHOWS             
 THIS FEATURE TRACKING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS ON SATURDAY WITH           
 QPF NEAR 0.25 AT BTV...SLK...AND MPV. GIVEN...QUICK MOVEMENT OF                
 SYSTEM...LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN NW FLW (PWS AROUND                   
 0.30)...AND THE LACK OF STRONG FGEN FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WL            
 MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE           
 IN THE FAVORABLE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UVV`S...AND           
 SEVERAL ELONGATED OR SPOKES OF FGEN FORCING/PVA MOVING ACRS OUR CWA            
 ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED VALLEYS PICK UP A              
 QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW...WHILE MTNS ZNS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 3                 
 INCHES BY SATURDAY EVENING. UPSLOPE FLW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE                  
 SATURDAY EVENING COULD PROLONG SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL             
 MTNS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GENERAL CLRING TREND FROM WEST           
 TO EAST WITH LLVL CAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL TO -10C BY 12Z                   
 SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH CLRING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER WL              
 DROP TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                  
 SUNDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA              
 ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE IN THE TRACK OF THIS                 
 FEATURE...BUT HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES. THE NAM IS SLOWER BY 6 TO 8             
 HRS AND HOLDS ONTO THE LLVL COLD AIR LONGER WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER           
 WITH BRING THE SFC HIGH INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z MONDAY AND             
 MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LLVL WAA AND SPREADING CLOUDS TOWARD OUR                  
 REGION. GIVEN...WELL ESTABLISHED NW FLOW ALOFT AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR           
 MASS IN PLACE WL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION FOR                      
 SUNDAY...BUT WL SHOW AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO               
 EAST. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -6C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C SUPPORT            
 HIGHS L/M 30S MOST LOCATIONS.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                  
 OVERALL EXTENDED FCST IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS           
 TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS. WL ADJUST THEM UP SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON NEW           
 GUIDANCE AND THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA.           
 OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIP MIXED PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACRS OUR           
 FA ON MONDAY...THAT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY ON                 
 MONDAY. INTERESTING THERMAL PROFILE WITH LLVL COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE            
 TO START WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR -1C...BUT STRONG LLVL WAA PUSHES 830MB            
 TEMPS TO 8C AT SLK BY 15Z MONDAY. THIS VERY WARM THERMAL RIDGE                 
 COMBINED WITH INCREASED SFC MIXING AND THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TO             
 OUR WEST SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL RAIN...THEN BACK TO A                
 BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WITH            
 A WARM SOUTHERLY FLW COULD APPROACH 40 ACRS THE CPV ON MONDAY.                 
 COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TUES INTO WEDS           
 OF NEXT WEEK.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...                                 
 AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS...AND ISOLD IFR CEILINGS /INCLUDING OVC007 AT           
 KSLK AT 06Z/ ARE NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN 00Z NAM OR GFS MODEL                  
 SOUNDINGS. THE RUC DOES SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SFC            
 AT KSLK...WHICH BECOMES LESS PRONOUNCED AFTER 9Z. IT APPEARS FROM              
 OBSERVATIONS THAT A SHALLOW COLD FRONT MAY BE WORKING SWD ACROSS THE           
 CHAMPLAIN VLY AT 07Z...PRODUCING A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AND THE BAND OF           
 LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. IN THE TAFS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LESS                  
 LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO              
 DETERMINE. ONCE INVERSION BREAK BY 14Z...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD               
 COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. SFC HIGH TO OUR NW SETTLES ACROSS THE FA 00Z             
 SATURDAY. LIGHT NLY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BECOME                 
 NEARLY CALM AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY                   
 RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AND ANY CEILINGS SHOULD             
 BE VFR /MOSTLY CIRRUS/ ONCE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING.           
 &&                                                                             
 .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VT...NONE.                                                                     
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SYNOPSIS...TABER                                                               
 SHORT TERM...TABER                                                             
 LONG TERM...TABER                                                              
 AVIATION...BANACOS                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                              
 920 PM EST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...MADE CHANGES TO REFLECT TEMPS AND              
 DEWPOINTS AT 02Z AND ASSOCIATED RH CHANGES.  ALSO LOWERED LOWS                 
 TONIGHT BY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  NO OTHER                 
 CHANGES NEEDED.   FROM PREV DISCUSSION.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY             
 NIGHT/...SFC HIGH SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTHEAST. FORECAST            
 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE             
 PERIOD. HIGH PRES WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE                   
 PEIDMONT REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NE FLOW OVER THE AREA.              
 LOWERED AFTERNOON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BOTH FRI AND SAT AS COOL NE              
 FLOW PREVAILS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S INLAND TO              
 THE UPPER 50S OUTER BANKS BOTH DAYS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL                
 ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S              
 AND LOW 40S FAR EAST AND OUTER BANKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS FOR SAT             
 AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE. ONLY POPS TO SPEAK            
 OF WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN             
 ZONES SAT EVENING INCREASING TO CHANCE OVER THE SAME REGION SAT                
 NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES SE WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO              
 THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN AND CONTINUE INTO                
 MON NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION                 
 WITH THE GFS NOW INDICATING FROPA MONDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS NOT                 
 IMPRESSIVE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM                
 WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH               
 OF THE AREA ON SUN AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT.                 
 RAIN CHANCES WILL GO UP SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS                     
 ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA INCREASES OVER THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD BE                
 MORE OF A STRATIFORM TYPE SUNDAY AND SUN NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO                
 MORE OF A CONVECTIVE EVENT SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD              
 FRONT. IT APPEARS THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL AHEAD OF COLD                
 FRONT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.                                           
 PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON WITH SFC HIGH PRES                        
 BUILDING IN FOR TUE AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS THE 60S ON              
 SUN WITH A MODERATING TREND SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES             
 NORTH. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SUN NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WARM                  
 FRONT. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ON MON AHEAD OF THE COLD                  
 FRONT. MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND 71 FOR FAR INLAND ZONES BUT              
 WILL TRIM OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP AROUND.          
 SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUE AND WED WITH DRY                     
 CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.                                              
 ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING THU BUT WILL                
 LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...HIGH PRES OVER THE RGN SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE             
 EAST TONIGHT BUT LOW LVL WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MUCH OF A               
 SRLY COMPONENT. STILL WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP             
 IN FAVORED AREAS NEAR INLAND BODIES OF WATER. THINK PATCHY DENSE               
 FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS FALLING TO AROUND 1/2 MILE OR             
 LOWER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. OVERALL THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                 
 PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PATCHY IS BETWEEN                
 05Z AND 13Z TONIGHT.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...SFC HIGH ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST                  
 TONIGHT AND ALLOW SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE ESE EARLY IN THE                    
 EVENING THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK TROF DROPS SOUTH                
 ACROSS THE WATERS. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TRYING TO                 
 SPIN UP A CIRCULATION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING BUT                
 THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. GFS AND RUC DO NOT INDICATE AS                
 MUCH DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING BUT BOTH DO SHOW THE NRLY WINDS                  
 LATER TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO RUC EARLY THIS EVENING                
 THEN CLOSER TO GFS.                                                            
 SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE RGN AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD                
 REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AS CAA DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WW3              
 GUIDANCE GENERALLY USED FOR SEAS BUT DID BUMP UP SEAS NRN AND                  
 CNTRL WATERS BUT A FOOT OR SO THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER BACK DOOR SFC               
 BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY MODELS DROPPING THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT               
 BEFORE STALLING TO THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY THEN RETURNS NORTH AS              
 A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SYSTEM THAT SWINGS NE OUT OF THE MID SOUTH               
 BY MON. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM             
 AND ITS SPEED WITH GFS NOW INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS A              
 DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF.               
 HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HPC WINDS FOR THIS SYSTEM             
 AND WILL INDICATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY MON IN THE                
 FORECAST FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS. WITH PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT               
 WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON AND SEAS SLOWLY                 
 DECREASE THROUGH TUE.                                                          
 AS MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT ERRATIC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS                   
 SYSTEM MAY NEED TO UP THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS TO                 
 INDICATE MINIMAL GALES BY MON...ESPECIALLY IF SFC LOW DEVELOPS A               
 BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENT MODELS INDICATE.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...KRIEHN                                                            
 LONG TERM...KRIEHN                                                             
 AVIATION...KENNEDY                                                             
 MARINE...KENNEDY                                                               
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                              
 427 PM EST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SFC HIGH SITUATED               
 JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTHEAST. FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH               
 EARLY SAT WITH A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES WILL              
 NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PEIDMONT REGION WHICH WILL               
 RESULT IN LIGHT NE FLOW OVER THE AREA. LOWERED AFTERNOON TEMPS A               
 FEW DEGREES BOTH FRI AND SAT AS COOL NE FLOW PREVAILS. HIGHS                   
 EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S OUTER               
 BANKS BOTH DAYS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP                
 INTO THE LOW 30S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FAR EAST             
 AND OUTER BANKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS FOR SAT AS LOW LEVEL                     
 THICKNESS VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE. ONLY POPS TO SPEAK OF WILL BE              
 A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN ZONES SAT              
 EVENING INCREASING TO CHANCE OVER THE SAME REGION SAT NIGHT AS                 
 FLOW BECOMES SE WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING.                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO              
 THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN AND CONTINUE INTO                
 MON NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION                 
 WITH THE GFS NOW INDICATING FROPA MONDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS NOT                 
 IMPRESSIVE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM                
 WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH               
 OF THE AREA ON SUN AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT.                 
 RAIN CHANCES WILL GO UP SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS                     
 ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA INCREASES OVER THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD BE                
 MORE OF A STRATIFORM TYPE SUNDAY AND SUN NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO                
 MORE OF A CONVECTIVE EVENT SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD              
 FRONT. IT APPEARS THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL AHEAD OF COLD                
 FRONT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.                                           
 PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON WITH SFC HIGH PRES                        
 BUILDING IN FOR TUE AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS THE 60S ON              
 SUN WITH A MODERATING TREND SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES             
 NORTH. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SUN NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WARM                  
 FRONT. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ON MON AHEAD OF THE COLD                  
 FRONT. MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND 71 FOR FAR INLAND ZONES BUT              
 WILL TRIM OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP AROUND.          
 SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUE AND WED WITH DRY                     
 CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.                                              
 ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING THU BUT WILL                
 LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...HIGH PRES OVER THE RGN SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE             
 EAST TONIGHT BUT LOW LVL WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MUCH OF A               
 SRLY COMPONENT. STILL WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP             
 IN FAVORED AREAS NEAR INLAND BODIES OF WATER. THINK PATCHY DENSE               
 FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS FALLING TO AROUND 1/2 MILE OR             
 LOWER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. OVERALL THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                 
 PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PATCHY IS BETWEEN                
 05Z AND 13Z TONIGHT.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...SFC HIGH ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST                  
 TONIGHT AND ALLOW SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE ESE EARLY IN THE                    
 EVENING THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK TROF DROPS SOUTH                
 ACROSS THE WATERS. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TRYING TO                 
 SPIN UP A CIRCULATION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING BUT                
 THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. GFS AND RUC DO NOT INDICATE AS                
 MUCH DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING BUT BOTH DO SHOW THE NRLY WINDS                  
 LATER TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO RUC EARLY THIS EVENING                
 THEN CLOSER TO GFS.                                                            
 SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE RGN AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD                
 REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AS CAA DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WW3              
 GUIDANCE GENERALLY USED FOR SEAS BUT DID BUMP UP SEAS NRN AND                  
 CNTRL WATERS BUT A FOOT OR SO THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER BACK DOOR SFC               
 BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY MODELS DROPPING THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT               
 BEFORE STALLING TO THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY THEN RETURNS NORTH AS              
 A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SYSTEM THAT SWINGS NE OUT OF THE MID SOUTH               
 BY MON. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM             
 AND ITS SPEED WITH GFS NOW INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS A              
 DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF.               
 HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HPC WINDS FOR THIS SYSTEM             
 AND WILL INDICATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY MON IN THE                
 FORECAST FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS. WITH PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT               
 WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON AND SEAS SLOWLY                 
 DECREASE THROUGH TUE.                                                          
 AS MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT ERRATIC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS                   
 SYSTEM MAY NEED TO UP THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS TO                 
 INDICATE MINIMAL GALES BY MON...ESPECIALLY IF SFC LOW DEVELOPS A               
 BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENT MODELS INDICATE.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...WINGENROTH                                                        
 LONG TERM...WINGENROTH                                                         
 AVIATION...FAUCETTE                                                            
 MARINE...FAUCETTE                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 850 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...                                             
 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES        
 WHILE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WAS NOTED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SASK       
 PROVINCE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS        
 WESTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN MONTANA WAS RESULTING IN LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL        
 ACROSS ABOVE LOCATIONS...PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC.                              
 .FORECAST DETAILS...                                                           
 CURRENT RUC MODEL KEEPS MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT CONFINED TO THE WEST         
 PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT WHERE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH WILL          
 REMAIN SITUATED. EXPECT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER CWFA TO SLOWLY            
 INCREASE MOISTURE LAYER OVERNIGHT...THUS WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT POPS            
 FOR PERHAPS A BIT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BY MORNING HOWEVER PRESENT THINKING       
 HEAVILY FAVORS DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING OVERNIGHT    
 EXPECT MERCURY DESCENT TO LEVEL OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 EXPECT LARGE SCALE MFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF IFR      
 ESPECIALLY EAST OF VALLEY IN BJI TAF SITE VICINITY.                            
 .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BERG                                                                           
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                             
 320 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER             
 LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE LOW                    
 INSTABILITY... WIND SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF 1             
 KM SHEAR AND 60 TO 70 KNOTS OF 6 KM SHEAR ANALYZED ON THE LAPS                 
 ANALYSIS WHICH WILL ALLOW SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING IF THERE               
 IS ANY AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. RUC PREDICTS EVEN                   
 HIGHER SHEAR TONIGHT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 1 KM SHEAR PREDICTED AROUND        
 3Z. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR NORTH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION               
 WILL EXIST... BUT IT CAN EXIST IN OUR CWA... THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH            
 SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER.                                               
 FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE STORM SYSTEM ITSELF AND PRECIP TYPE. LOW               
 LEVELS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIP SHOULD STAY LIQUID THROUGH               
 MOST OF THE FIRST PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME MIX IN THE FAR                  
 NORTHWEST LATE. STILL WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED                 
 WITH THE WRAP-AROUND AS COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW HIGHER                  
 CHANCES OF WINTER PRECIP.                                                      
 STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH             
 RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE GFS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN               
 THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  55  36  44 / 100  40  30  20                             
 HOBART OK         44  47  32  43 / 100  30  30  20                             
 WICHITA FALLS TX  49  54  36  50 / 100  20  10  10                             
 GAGE OK           35  37  29  37 / 100  70  40  20                             
 PONCA CITY OK     50  55  36  41 / 100  70  30  30                             
 DURANT OK         54  60  37  51 / 100  50  20  10                             
 &&                                                                             
 .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OK...NONE.                                                                     
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ok                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA            
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                        
 945 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO THE ZFP TEXT AND GRIDS. MAIN CONCERN RIGHT              
 NOW IS THE STRONGER ECHOES WHICH HAVE MOVED INTO GREGORY CO...AND              
 NOW NUDGING INTO CHARLES MIX. SOME OF THESE ECHOES ARE APPROACHING             
 30 DBZ. A BIT OF DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE MID LVLS IN THAT AREA...WITH            
 PLENTY OF STRATUS AND HIGHER CLOUDS. SOME OF THAT COULD BE REACHING            
 THE GROUND IN THE FORM OF -SN AND/OR SLEET...WITH A LITTLE SEEDER              
 FEEDER ACTION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES PER THE RUC AND NAM SNDGS                 
 INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING AIR ALOFT EXISTS TONIGHT IN THAT AREA.              
 ALL OF THAT ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL BAND OF MID LVL             
 FRONTOGENESIS THAT IS MOVG NWD AND EVENTUALLY SCRAPES ALONG THE WRN            
 FRINGE OF THE FSD FA THE REST OF THE NIGHT. YOU CAN SEE THE ECHOES             
 EXTENDING BACK WWD INTO SW SD AND NW NEB ALONG THE FRONTOGENESIS.              
 TWEAKED THE PCPN GRIDS TO MAINLY INCLUDE OUR WRN FRINGE AFTER                  
 MIDNIGHT. BUT ALSO KEPT SOME CHCS OF LIGHT RAIN GOING IN OUR FAR S             
 FM KYKN TO KSLB LATE TONIGHT. THAT AREA OF PCPN IS DUE TO LOW LVL              
 WAA...COUPLED WITH PURE MSTR ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW             
 LVL THTE RIDGE SURGING NWD. THEREFORE THE THTE ADV IS POSITIVE.                
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW              
 SPINNING INTO THE REGION. SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED IN SOUTHERN                
 ARIZONA AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS            
 AS JET ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST             
 WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUS DECREASING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AND            
 INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.           
 FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST           
 AREA. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE BEGINNING TO CREEP INTO                  
 SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND WILL                 
 CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING              
 ATMOSPHERE IS HAVING A HARD TIME SATURATING ALOFT...SO AM NOT                  
 EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. HAVE                  
 HOWEVER LEFT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA            
 AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                                
 MODELS SUGGESTING 40-60 PERCENT POP-WISE TOMORROW...HOWEVER                    
 SATURATION ISSUES CONTINUE UPSTAIRS SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POPS             
 TOMORROW MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES                
 GREATLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS.                 
 EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ON SATURDAY               
 ALONG DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CWA. PRECIPITATION             
 TO THE EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN IN WARM                
 MOIST AIRMASS...WHILE WEST OF THE TROUGH THINGS ARE MUCH MORE                  
 UNCLEAR.  EXPECT A VARIETY OF RAIN MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW           
 ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS IS FOR              
 NOW...BUT AM THINKING ICING THREAT IS GREATER THAN SNOW THREAT                 
 ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. ANY ICE COMBINED WITH             
 THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED COULD MAKE FOR SOME TREACHEROUS                      
 CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES CLOSER...PRECIP IN THE SOUTH            
 WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA STILL SEEING           
 THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW WITH QPF RANGING FROM 1-2                
 INCHES.                                                                        
 AS THE MARGINALLY COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON                    
 SUNDAY...PRECIP HAS A CHANCE OF CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE               
 REMAINING PORTIONS OF CWA...HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE FOCUSED LIFT AT              
 THIS TIME HAS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE EAST...SO AM ONLY EXPECTING AN            
 INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR.                      
 INTO NEXT WEEK...HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE...BUT HAVE            
 UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN WESTERN CWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 MVFR STRATUS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE KHON AREA. AM EXPECTING THESE              
 CIGS TO GO DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDN...MVFR             
 CIGS CONT TO MOV NWD TOWARD KSUX. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING KSUX TO               
 FIRST GO TO MVFR CIGS CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT...THEN DOWN TO IFR AS THE              
 OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES OR LATE TONIGHT. KFSD WL ALSO GO DOWN TO MVFR             
 TO IFR CIGS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON           
 FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.                                        
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 NE...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MJF/BT/08                                                                      
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                    
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                         
 820 PM MST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .EVENING UPDATE...COMPOSIT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT                 
 PRECIPITATION SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH              
 DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS PRECIP MATCHES UP                  
 NICELY WITH A AREA OF NEGATIVE DIV Q AND FRONTOGENESIS FORECAST                
 BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB ON THE 00Z RUC UPDATE. IT IS FORECAST TO                
 CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CURRENT           
 FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING           
 THE ONSET OF SNOW IN THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS OF WYOMING. SPOTTERS             
 IN SUNDANCE, WY ARE REPORTING LITTLE OR ACTIVITY YET THIS EVENING.             
 THE SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA NEED TO COME AROUND TO THE NORTH A              
 LITTLE MORE TO BEGIN THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. SHORT RANGE MODELS               
 SHOW WINDS REMAINING FROM ABOUT 330 DEGREES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.              
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW IN SOUTHWEST CO            
 WITH INVERTED TROUGH INTO WESTERN ND. A COUPLE OF NOTABLE FORCING              
 FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST IS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING             
 THROUGH MT...CAUSING SNOW OVER EASTERN HALF OF MT. STRONG UPPER LOW            
 OVER AZ SPINNING COMPACT FAIRLY STRONG WAVE NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST               
 WY/CO/NE PANHANDLE. LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90KT JET ASSOCIATED            
 WITH WAVE CAUSING RAPIDLY COOLING IR SIGNATURE WITH REGIONAL RADARS            
 TO THE SOUTH SHOWING INCREASING REFLECTIVITY. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS             
 WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG INVERTED TROUGH AS BOTH SYSTEMS INTERACT            
 OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LIFT WILL SPIT OUT ADVISORY                  
 CRITERIA SNOWS OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL SD.                
 ACTIVITY SHOULD START SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IN THE SOUTH AND BY                 
 MID-EVENING FURTHER NORTH. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS            
 WILL BE 3-5 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW BANDS MAY              
 OCCUR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD TOWARD THE MT/SD/ND BORDERS.           
 ACTIVITY WILL DROPOFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                        
 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE           
 ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z NAM/GFS OUTPUT WITH MAJOR               
 SENSIBLE WEATHER DISCREPANCIES FOR WESTERN SD THIS WEEKEND.                    
 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AZ UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE                 
 CENTRAL PLAINS. 12Z NAM SOLUTION ALLOWS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO              
 DROP INTO THE TROUGH STALLING THE LOW OVER NE. THIS WOULD GIVE                 
 WESTERN SD SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS BY              
 SUNDAY. HOWEVER...12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT DOES NOT MERGE             
 BOTH UPPER AIR SYSTEMS. 18Z NAM IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH                     
 SYSTEM...BUT STILL NOT VERY PROGRESSIVE. HAVE TAKEN THE INBETWEEN              
 ROUTE...CLOSE TO HPC THINKING...AND WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR             
 HEAVY SNOW TO BE PRESENT FROM THE WY BLACK HILLS TO PHILIP AND AREAS           
 TO THE SOUTH IN SD. FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH STORM...WITH THE               
 BEST CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THIS STORM            
 WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. IF STORM DOES TRACK FURTHER                   
 EAST...WOULD THINK FAR WESTERN SD WOULD STILL GET SEVERAL INCHES               
 OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL EXPAND WINTER STORM WATCH SLIGHTLY TO THE               
 NORTH AND WEST.                                                                
 EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING               
 STORM SYSTEM BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE            
 RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE             
 MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE               
 PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP...BUT           
 WILL REEVALUATE WITH LATER RUNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY              
 REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S WITH THE ANTICIPATED SNOWPACK.              
 HIGH TEMPS IN THE BLACK HILLS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE                  
 PLAINS...WITH WARMER AIR PROGGED ALOFT.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THIS               
 EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IFR CONDITIONS                        
 FROM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE             
 AREA AS SNOW MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST. IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER                   
 NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS OVER            
 THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER... BRINGING IFR                    
 CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...SNOW ADVISORY SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD THROUGH FRIDAY                
       MORNING.                                                                 
   ...WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHERN 2/3RDS SD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH                
       SUNDAY.                                                                  
 WY...SNOW ADVISORY NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                   
   ...WINTER STORM WATCH WY BLACK HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.            
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 CARPENTER/HELGESON/SMITH                                                       
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                    
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                         
 935 AM MST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...16Z HAD TROUGH FROM WESTERN ND INTO CENTRAL WY. WATER            
 VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER AZ/NM BORDER. FIRST PIECE OF             
 ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT INTO CO/KS. IR/RADAR LOOPS SHOW RAPIDLY              
 BLOSSOMING COOLING/RETURNS IN CO. 12Z RUC/NAM/GFS SHOWED THIS WAVE             
 PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD                 
 OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL BE CONSIDERING EXPANDING SNOW              
 ADVISORY INTO NORTHEAST WY WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE...MONITORING SNOW            
 TRENDS IN WY/CO/NE PANHANDLE.                                                  
 MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND. 12Z NAM ALLOWS                
 NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO DROP INTO SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW...CUTTING              
 OFF AND SPINNING OVER NE. THIS WOULD GIVE WESTERN SD SIGNIFICANT               
 HEAVY SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEMS SEPARATE AND               
 THUS...THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST. THE           
 RESULT WOULD BE LITTLE SNOW OVER WESTERN SD FOR THE WEEKEND.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA                 
      INCLUDING THE BLACK HILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY                     
      MORNING...                                                                
   ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY                  
      NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                   
 WY...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 HELGESON                                                                       
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                         
 828 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CLOUDS THAT WERE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA               
 AND ACROSS NORTHERN GA HAVE DISSIPATED...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND               
 TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW FORECAST VALUES. MOISTURE OVER THE            
 LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND                 
 AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS SHOWN IN THE RUC AND                   
 NAM...HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 09Z. FORECAST              
 UPDATE WILL DECREASE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY           
 ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 TN...NONE.                                                                     
 VA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DGS                                                                            
</pre> tn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                     
 957 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...PACIFIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH           
 THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED TORNADO                 
 WATCH #888 AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BEHIND THE FRONT. TRAILING                 
 STRATIFORM RAIN IS EVIDENT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PER ECHOES FROM THE             
 KCRP WSR-88D. KLRD IS ALSO REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. THE LIGHT RAIN                
 SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT OVER THE CWA AS THE UPPER             
 LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD AND STREAMS PACIFIC                     
 MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. IN ADDITION...WITH POCKETS OF ENERGY                
 ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID/UPR TROUGH...COULD ALSO SEE                
 ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT. UPDATED THE ZFP TO REFLECT               
 THE HYBRID-TYPE OF ACTIVITY OF STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN WITH ISOLATED             
 THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT AS                 
 STRONG AS ANTICIPATED. HAVE THEREFORE DECREASED WIND SPEEDS OVER               
 THE COASTAL WATERS. IN EFFECT...THE SCA OVER THE BAYS WAS                      
 DOWNGRADED TO SCEC. SCA CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT                
 FOR THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO ROUGH SEAS (WAVE HEIGHTS              
 AROUND 7 FT). NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST IS PLANNED              
 AT THIS TIME.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 610 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006)                        
 UPDATE...SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO THE ZFP AND CWF TO REFLECT TORNADO              
 WATCH 888 THAT REPLACED TORNADO WATCH 886. THE NEW WATCH REMOVED               
 LIVE OAK AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AND EXTENDED THE                 
 DURATION OF THE WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES UNTIL 2 AM CST.               
 PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 434 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006)                         
 UPDATE...RECEIVED REPORT OF SEA FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS                  
 WHICH SHOULD REMAIN TIL WIND SHIFTS AOA 03Z. UPDATED CWF FOR                   
 AFOREMENTIONED SEA FOG.                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 335 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006)                         
 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TOR WATCH TIL 8 PM               
 OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF CWFA. WINDS STILL UP AT KCRP BUT                  
 LOWER ELSEWHERE SO WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF              
 THE AFERTNOON. MAIN WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO GET GOING LATE                   
 THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS UPPER                  
 ENERGY APPROACHES AND ERODES THE CAP. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION                
 OVER THE CWA HELD BY CAP BUT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. ONCE UPPER              
 ENERGY APPROACHES...EXPECT CONVECTIVE LINE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING             
 AND SPREAD EASTWARD. LATEST RUC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW                  
 TROUGH IS MOVING FASTER THAN NAM WAS SHOWING...GFS SEEMS MORE IN               
 LINE. THUS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE EAST OF A FREER TO TILDEN LINE.              
 CATEGORICAL POPS EAST WITH LIKELY POPS WEST. THINK MAIN SEVERE                 
 CONCERN WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL AT THIS                  
 TIME...INCLUDING FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH LESS                
 CONFIDENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN AM OVER THE NORTH. ENERGY ALOFT                   
 CONTINUES TONIGHT BUT INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY GOES AWAY...SO                    
 THUNDER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT OVER INLAND SECTIONS BUT               
 STILL BE THERE...MORE THUNDER IN THE GULFMEX. MODELS STILL SHOWING             
 ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT ON SATURDAY TO WARRANT SOME LIGHT             
 RAIN EASTERN 2/3 OF AREA...HOWEVER...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POPS               
 SOME AS FEEL MOST OF THE AREAS WILL HAVE TROUBLE TIPPING THE                   
 BUCKET/OBTAINING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SINCE GFS HAS BEEN HANDLING              
 FEATURES BETTER THAN NAM/NGM WENT CLOSER TO GFS NUMBERS FOR                    
 TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...GFS-MOS IS SHOWING              
 POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER...THINK MOS DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT ON               
 THE HIGH SIDE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON THE FOG FOR NOW.                             
 MARINE...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TEMPORARILY TONIGHT BEFORE CONVECTIVE             
 LINE MOVES THROUGH. THINK WINDS WILL STAY UP AFTER CONVECTIVE LINE             
 SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...GRADUALLY ENDING IT             
 FOR THE BAYS BY MORNING AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. PRETTY MUCH               
 CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE...THEN LIGHT RAIN CHANCE             
 ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP AFTER THAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH PERIOD.           
 AVIATION...CATAGOCIAL THUNDER IN FOR THE EVENING XCPT AT KLRD BUT              
 ENDING BY 05Z. COULD BE CLOSE TO SVR WND AT KVCT. HAVE ALSO                    
 MENTIONED -RA AFTER INSTABILITY MOVES EAST OF AREA AFTER 05Z WTH               
 VCTS OVR ERN AREA. IMPROVING CIGS BY 15Z WITH NO -RA MENTIONED                 
 THOUGH COULD HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES AFTER THAT.                                  
 LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK            
 NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORT WAVE/TROF PROGD TO SWING                
 ACROSS S TX THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN               
 PLACE THEREFORE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE ON                  
 SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WEAK RIDGING TAKES PLACE AHD OF              
 THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL            
 MAINTAIN A NELY FLOW WHILE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT OF THE S              
 TUE THRU WED. THIS WILL USHER IN MOISTURE AND ENHANCE ISENTROPIC               
 UPGLIDE. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGD            
 TO MOVE ACROSS W TX WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE OUT AHD OF IT. WED              
 LOOKS TO BE A WET DAY AS A COASTAL TROF/CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN            
 RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF              
 UPPER LOW WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND THE DGEX THE                 
 SLOWEST...KEEPING THE LOW OVR W MEX INTO THUR. FOR NOW WILL KEEP               
 RAIN CHCS AT 30-40 PERCENT BUT MAY BE INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE ON               
 TIMING INCREASES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WITH RAIN CHCS/SKY                
 COVER DIMINISHING FROM W TO E ON THU AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.           
 A COOLING TREND TAKES PLACE SUN THRU TUE DUE TO INCREASING                     
 MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND WED DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. THEN A WARMING              
 TREND THU/FRI WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20                   
      NM...AND COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP                    
      CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.                                                        
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...AND                
      WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 TM/95...UPDATE                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                           
 613 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT              
 KAMA. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE            
 NEXT FEW HOURS AS THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE        
 LATEST SOUNDING BUT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW BELOW FREEZING...FEEL           
 THAT THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3              
 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...BUT IT            
 APPEARS THAT THE LAST FEW IR FRAMES SHOW THE LOW MAY FINALLY BE                
 MOVING TO THE EAST WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE STEADY (IF LESS INTENSE)            
 PRECIP WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.                                      
 WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR CHILDRESS WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY               
 NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND          
 OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING SNOW WILL CREATE            
 VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING           
 WITH PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DECIDED NOT TO SHOW          
 ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE TAFS IN CASE THE LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW                 
 PROGRESSION EAST.                                                              
 HENNIG                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE WINTER EVENT IS NOW BEGINNING TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL                 
 PANHANDLES. THE EASTERN PANHANDLES CHANGED OVER TO SNOW EARLY TODAY            
 WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES OF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. WV               
 IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE RUC             
 ANALYSIS PLACED A 100 TO 110 KT 300MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW           
 SO THINKING THE SYSTEM MAY STILL TRACK SOUTH BEFORE PUSHING NE                 
 TOMORROW. THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION IS THE QUICKEST LIFTING THE LOW              
 NORTH...BUT STILL PROJECTS HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES               
 OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z GFS KEEPS THE LOW A FEW MILES SOUTH OF THE NAM AND          
 ALSO A BIT FURTHER EAST. THINKING A COMBINATION OF THE TWO MODELS              
 WITH THE NAMS TIMING AND GFS LOCATION SEEMS TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO.          
 THIS WOULD CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE                 
 PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SNOW          
 SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...CURRENT OBS IN DHT AND              
 INTO CIMARRON COUNTY INDICATE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 30KT. GFS SOLUTION             
 HINTS TOWARDS INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THAT AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND              
 12Z. SO THINKING WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SUSTAIN 30KT IN AT LEAST                   
 DALLAM...HARTLEY AND CIMARRON COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SO            
 DECIDED TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS...AS VISIBILITIES          
 SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE CAUSING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. THEN             
 THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT          
 MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THAT WRAP AROUND PRECIP LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH           
 TO CAUSE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS.                                                
 SPENT LITTLE TIME ON THE EXTENDED BUT DID EVALUATE THE NEXT SYSTEM             
 SET TO REACH THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF             
 THE GFS TOOK THE LOW SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR LIMITED              
 PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER THE 18Z RUN NOW BRINGS THE LOW                 
 SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH WITH MORE PRECIP PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT TIME            
 FRAME. THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN                   
 TIMING AND LOCATION...SO AM JUST CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE 20              
 POPS IN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                    
 WEDNESDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE MODELS ARE              
 MUCH TOO WEAK AND FAST WITH THE LOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CUT THE             
 LOW OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. THEY THEN SUGGEST THE LOW WILL KICK          
 EAST OF THE PANHANDLES WELL BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE           
 COAST. WOULD THINK THE CLOSED LOW WOULD LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL          
 NEXT UPPER TROUGH REACHES AT LEAST CALIFORNIA. BUT THAT IS ALL 6 TO 7          
 DAYS OUT SO AM NOT READY TO ADJUST POP GRIDS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW             
 MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE SYSTEM.                                              
 JJB                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...HANSFORD...               
      HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...                   
      OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.                            
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE               
      FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.                                        
      BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.                                                  
 OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.                                                    
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE               
      FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                
      BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 10/15                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                     
 610 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO THE ZFP AND CWF TO REFLECT TORNADO             
 WATCH 888 THAT REPLACED TORNADO WATCH 886. THE NEW WATCH REMOVED               
 LIVE OAK AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AND EXTENDED THE                 
 DURATION OF THE WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES UNTIL 2 AM CST.               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 434 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006)                        
 UPDATE...RECEIVED REPORT OF SEA FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS                  
 WHICH SHOULD REMAIN TIL WIND SHIFTS AOA 03Z. UPDATED CWF FOR                   
 AFOREMENTIONED SEA FOG.                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 335 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006)                         
 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TOR WATCH TIL 8 PM               
 OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF CWFA. WINDS STILL UP AT KCRP BUT                  
 LOWER ELSEWHERE SO WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF              
 THE AFERTNOON. MAIN WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO GET GOING LATE                   
 THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS UPPER                  
 ENERGY APPROACHES AND ERODES THE CAP. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION                
 OVER THE CWA HELD BY CAP BUT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. ONCE UPPER              
 ENERGY APPROACHES...EXPECT CONVECTIVE LINE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING             
 AND SPREAD EASTWARD. LATEST RUC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW                  
 TROUGH IS MOVING FASTER THAN NAM WAS SHOWING...GFS SEEMS MORE IN               
 LINE. THUS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE EAST OF A FREER TO TILDEN LINE.              
 CATEGORICAL POPS EAST WITH LIKELY POPS WEST. THINK MAIN SEVERE                 
 CONCERN WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL AT THIS                  
 TIME...INCLUDING FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH LESS                
 CONFIDENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN AM OVER THE NORTH. ENERGY ALOFT                   
 CONTINUES TONIGHT BUT INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY GOES AWAY...SO                    
 THUNDER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT OVER INLAND SECTIONS BUT               
 STILL BE THERE...MORE THUNDER IN THE GULFMEX. MODELS STILL SHOWING             
 ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT ON SATURDAY TO WARRANT SOME LIGHT             
 RAIN EASTERN 2/3 OF AREA...HOWEVER...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POPS               
 SOME AS FEEL MOST OF THE AREAS WILL HAVE TROUBLE TIPPING THE                   
 BUCKET/OBTAINING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SINCE GFS HAS BEEN HANDLING              
 FEATURES BETTER THAN NAM/NGM WENT CLOSER TO GFS NUMBERS FOR                    
 TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...GFS-MOS IS SHOWING              
 POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER...THINK MOS DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT ON               
 THE HIGH SIDE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON THE FOG FOR NOW.                             
 MARINE...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TEMPORARILY TONIGHT BEFORE CONVECTIVE             
 LINE MOVES THROUGH. THINK WINDS WILL STAY UP AFTER CONVECTIVE LINE             
 SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...GRADUALLY ENDING IT             
 FOR THE BAYS BY MORNING AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. PRETTY MUCH               
 CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE...THEN LIGHT RAIN CHANCE             
 ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP AFTER THAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH PERIOD.           
 AVIATION...CATAGOCIAL THUNDER IN FOR THE EVENING XCPT AT KLRD BUT              
 ENDING BY 05Z. COULD BE CLOSE TO SVR WND AT KVCT. HAVE ALSO                    
 MENTIONED -RA AFTER INSTABILITY MOVES EAST OF AREA AFTER 05Z WTH               
 VCTS OVR ERN AREA. IMPROVING CIGS BY 15Z WITH NO -RA MENTIONED                 
 THOUGH COULD HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES AFTER THAT.                                  
 LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK            
 NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORT WAVE/TROF PROGD TO SWING                
 ACROSS S TX THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN               
 PLACE THEREFORE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE ON                  
 SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WEAK RIDGING TAKES PLACE AHD OF              
 THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL            
 MAINTAIN A NELY FLOW WHILE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT OF THE S              
 TUE THRU WED. THIS WILL USHER IN MOISTURE AND ENHANCE ISENTROPIC               
 UPGLIDE. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGD            
 TO MOVE ACROSS W TX WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE OUT AHD OF IT. WED              
 LOOKS TO BE A WET DAY AS A COASTAL TROF/CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN            
 RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF              
 UPPER LOW WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND THE DGEX THE                 
 SLOWEST...KEEPING THE LOW OVR W MEX INTO THUR. FOR NOW WILL KEEP               
 RAIN CHCS AT 30-40 PERCENT BUT MAY BE INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE ON               
 TIMING INCREASES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WITH RAIN CHCS/SKY                
 COVER DIMINISHING FROM W TO E ON THU AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.           
 A COOLING TREND TAKES PLACE SUN THRU TUE DUE TO INCREASING                     
 MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND WED DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. THEN A WARMING              
 TREND THU/FRI WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...AND                
      WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...              
      AND BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20                   
      NM...AND COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP                    
      CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 TM/95...UPDATE                                                                 
 MB/80...AVIATION                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                           
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                           
 450 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE WINTER EVENT IS NOW BEGINNING TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL                 
 PANHANDLES. THE EASTERN PANHANDLES CHANGED OVER TO SNOW EARLY TODAY            
 WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES OF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. WV               
 IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE RUC             
 ANALYSIS PLACED A 100 TO 110 KT 300MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW           
 SO THINKING THE SYSTEM MAY STILL TRACK SOUTH BEFORE PUSHING NE                 
 TOMORROW. THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION IS THE QUICKEST LIFTING THE LOW              
 NORTH...BUT STILL PROJECTS HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES               
 OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z GFS KEEPS THE LOW A FEW MILES SOUTH OF THE NAM AND          
 ALSO A BIT FURTHER EAST. THINKING A COMBINATION OF THE TWO MODELS              
 WITH THE NAMS TIMING AND GFS LOCATION SEEMS TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO.          
 THIS WOULD CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE                 
 PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SNOW          
 SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...CURRENT OBS IN DHT AND              
 INTO CIMARRON COUNTY INDICATE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 30KT. GFS SOLUTION             
 HINTS TOWARDS INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THAT AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND              
 12Z. SO THINKING WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SUSTAIN 30KT IN AT LEAST                   
 DALLAM...HARTLEY AND CIMARRON COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SO            
 DECIDED TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS...AS VISIBILITIES          
 SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE CAUSING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. THEN             
 THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT          
 MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THAT WRAP AROUND PRECIP LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH           
 TO CAUSE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS.                                                
 SPENT LITTLE TIME ON THE EXTENDED BUT DID EVALUATE THE NEXT SYSTEM             
 SET TO REACH THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF             
 THE GFS TOOK THE LOW SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR LIMITED              
 PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER THE 18Z RUN NOW BRINGS THE LOW                 
 SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH WITH MORE PRECIP PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT TIME            
 FRAME. THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN                   
 TIMING AND LOCATION...SO AM JUST CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE 20              
 POPS IN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                    
 WEDNESDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE MODELS ARE              
 MUCH TOO WEAK AND FAST WITH THE LOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CUT THE             
 LOW OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. THEY THEN SUGGEST THE LOW WILL KICK          
 EAST OF THE PANHANDLES WELL BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE           
 COAST. WOULD THINK THE CLOSED LOW WOULD LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL          
 NEXT UPPER TROUGH REACHES AT LEAST CALIFORNIA. BUT THAT IS ALL 6 TO 7          
 DAYS OUT SO AM NOT READY TO ADJUST POP GRIDS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW             
 MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE SYSTEM.                                              
 JJB                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 AMARILLO TX                25  31  21  34  21 / 100  70  20  10   0            
 BEAVER OK                  30  34  23  33  16 / 100  80  30  10   0            
 BOISE CITY OK              21  32  18  33  14 / 100  80  30  10   0            
 BORGER TX                  29  33  24  34  23 / 100  80  20  10   0            
 BOYS RANCH TX              26  34  22  34  16 / 100  70  20  10   0            
 CANYON TX                  25  33  21  36  14 / 100  60  20  10   0            
 CLARENDON TX               27  36  25  37  26 / 100  50  20  10   0            
 DALHART TX                 25  31  19  31  13 / 100  80  20  10   0            
 GUYMON OK                  22  33  24  33  14 / 100  80  30  10   0            
 HEREFORD TX                24  33  22  37  14 / 100  60  20  10   0            
 LIPSCOMB TX                30  35  25  33  18 / 100  80  30  10   0            
 PAMPA TX                   28  32  22  33  27 / 100  80  20  10   0            
 SHAMROCK TX                33  40  28  38  24 / 100  70  20  10   0            
 WELLINGTON TX              34  42  29  39  25 / 100  50  20  10   0            
 &&                                                                             
 .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...                 
      HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...POTTER...                     
      RANDALL...ROBERTS.                                                        
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE               
      FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.                                        
      BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.                                                  
      WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...SHERMAN.                                     
 OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: BEAVER.                                                            
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE               
      FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                
      BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                          
      WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: TEXAS.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 04/14                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                           
 450 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE WINTER EVENT IS NO BEGINNING TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL                  
 PANHANDLES. THE EASTERN PANHANDLES CHANGED OVER TO SNOW EARLY TODAY            
 WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES OF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. WV               
 IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE RUC             
 ANALYSIS PLACED A 100 TO 110 KT 300MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW           
 SO THINKING THE SYSTEM MAY STILL TRACK SOUTH BEFORE PUSHING NE                 
 TOMORROW. THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION IS THE QUICKEST LIFTING THE LOW              
 NORTH...BUT STILL PROJECTS HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES               
 OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z GFS KEEPS THE LOW A FEW MILES SOUTH OF THE NAM AND          
 ALSO A BIT FURTHER EAST. THINKING A COMBINATION OF THE TWO MODELS              
 WITH THE NAMS TIMING AND GFS LOCATION SEEMS TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO.          
 THIS WOULD CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE                 
 PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SNOW          
 SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...CURRENT OBS IN DHT AND              
 INTO CIMARRON COUNTY INDICATE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 30KT. GFS SOLUTION             
 HINTS TOWARDS INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THAT AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND              
 12Z. SO THINKING WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SUSTAIN 30KT IN AT LEAST                   
 DALLAM...HARTLEY AND CIMARRON COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SO            
 DECIDED TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS...AS VISIBILITIES          
 SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE CAUSING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. THEN             
 THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT          
 MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THAT WRAP AROUND PRECIP LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH           
 TO CAUSE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS.                                                
 SPENT LITTLE TIME ON THE EXTENDED BUT DID EVALUATE THE NEXT SYSTEM             
 SET TO REACH THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF             
 THE GFS TOOK THE LOW SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR LIMITED              
 PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER THE 18Z RUN NOW BRINGS THE LOW                 
 SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH WITH MORE PRECIP PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT TIME            
 FRAME. THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN                   
 TIMING AND LOCATION...SO AM JUST CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE 20              
 POPS IN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                    
 WEDNESDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE MODELS ARE              
 MUCH TOO WEAK AND FAST WITH THE LOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CUT THE             
 LOW OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. THEY THEN SUGGEST THE LOW WILL KICK          
 EAST OF THE PANHANDLES WELL BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE           
 COAST. WOULD THINK THE CLOSED LOW WOULD LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL          
 NEXT UPPER TROUGH REACHES AT LEAST CALIFORNIA. BUT THAT IS ALL 6 TO 7          
 DAYS OUT SO AM NOT READY TO ADJUST POP GRIDS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW             
 MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE SYSTEM.                                              
 JJB                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 AMARILLO TX                25  31  21  34  21 / 100  70  20  10   0            
 BEAVER OK                  30  34  23  33  16 / 100  80  30  10   0            
 BOISE CITY OK              21  32  18  33  14 / 100  80  30  10   0            
 BORGER TX                  29  33  24  34  23 / 100  80  20  10   0            
 BOYS RANCH TX              26  34  22  34  16 / 100  70  20  10   0            
 CANYON TX                  25  33  21  36  14 / 100  60  20  10   0            
 CLARENDON TX               27  36  25  37  26 / 100  50  20  10   0            
 DALHART TX                 25  31  19  31  13 / 100  80  20  10   0            
 GUYMON OK                  22  33  24  33  14 / 100  80  30  10   0            
 HEREFORD TX                24  33  22  37  14 / 100  60  20  10   0            
 LIPSCOMB TX                30  35  25  33  18 / 100  80  30  10   0            
 PAMPA TX                   28  32  22  33  27 / 100  80  20  10   0            
 SHAMROCK TX                33  40  28  38  24 / 100  70  20  10   0            
 WELLINGTON TX              34  42  29  39  25 / 100  50  20  10   0            
 &&                                                                             
 .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...                 
      HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...POTTER...                     
      RANDALL...ROBERTS.                                                        
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE               
      FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.                                        
      BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.                                                  
      WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...SHERMAN.                                     
 OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: BEAVER.                                                            
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE               
      FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                
      BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                          
      WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: TEXAS.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 04/14                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                     
 434 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...RECEIVED REPORT OF SEA FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS                 
 WHICH SHOULD REMAIN TIL WIND SHIFTS AOA 03Z. UPDATED CWF FOR                   
 AFOREMENTIONED SEA FOG.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 335 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006)                        
 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TOR WATCH TIL 8 PM               
 OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF CWFA. WINDS STILL UP AT KCRP BUT                  
 LOWER ELSEWHERE SO WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF              
 THE AFERTNOON. MAIN WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO GET GOING LATE                   
 THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS UPPER                  
 ENERGY APPROACHES AND ERODES THE CAP. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION                
 OVER THE CWA HELD BY CAP BUT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. ONCE UPPER              
 ENERGY APPROACHES...EXPECT CONVECTIVE LINE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING             
 AND SPREAD EASTWARD. LATEST RUC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW                  
 TROUGH IS MOVING FASTER THAN NAM WAS SHOWING...GFS SEEMS MORE IN               
 LINE. THUS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE EAST OF A FREER TO TILDEN LINE.              
 CATEGORICAL POPS EAST WITH LIKELY POPS WEST. THINK MAIN SEVERE                 
 CONCERN WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL AT THIS                  
 TIME...INCLUDING FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH LESS                
 CONFIDENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN AM OVER THE NORTH. ENERGY ALOFT                   
 CONTINUES TONIGHT BUT INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY GOES AWAY...SO                    
 THUNDER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT OVER INLAND SECTIONS BUT               
 STILL BE THERE...MORE THUNDER IN THE GULFMEX. MODELS STILL SHOWING             
 ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT ON SATURDAY TO WARRANT SOME LIGHT             
 RAIN EASTERN 2/3 OF AREA...HOWEVER...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POPS               
 SOME AS FEEL MOST OF THE AREAS WILL HAVE TROUBLE TIPPING THE                   
 BUCKET/OBTAINING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SINCE GFS HAS BEEN HANDLING              
 FEATURES BETTER THAN NAM/NGM WENT CLOSER TO GFS NUMBERS FOR                    
 TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...GFS-MOS IS SHOWING              
 POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER...THINK MOS DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT ON               
 THE HIGH SIDE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON THE FOG FOR NOW.                             
 MARINE...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TEMPORARILY TONIGHT BEFORE CONVECTIVE             
 LINE MOVES THROUGH. THINK WINDS WILL STAY UP AFTER CONVECTIVE LINE             
 SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...GRADUALLY ENDING IT             
 FOR THE BAYS BY MORNING AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. PRETTY MUCH               
 CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE...THEN LIGHT RAIN CHANCE             
 ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP AFTER THAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH PERIOD.           
 AVIATION...CATAGOCIAL THUNDER IN FOR THE EVENING XCPT AT KLRD BUT              
 ENDING BY 05Z. COULD BE CLOSE TO SVR WND AT KVCT. HAVE ALSO                    
 MENTIONED -RA AFTER INSTABILITY MOVES EAST OF AREA AFTER 05Z WTH               
 VCTS OVR ERN AREA. IMPROVING CIGS BY 15Z WITH NO -RA MENTIONED                 
 THOUGH COULD HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES AFTER THAT.                                  
 LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK            
 NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORT WAVE/TROF PROGD TO SWING                
 ACROSS S TX THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN               
 PLACE THEREFORE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE ON                  
 SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WEAK RIDGING TAKES PLACE AHD OF              
 THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL            
 MAINTAIN A NELY FLOW WHILE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT OF THE S              
 TUE THRU WED. THIS WILL USHER IN MOISTURE AND ENHANCE ISENTROPIC               
 UPGLIDE. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGD            
 TO MOVE ACROSS W TX WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE OUT AHD OF IT. WED              
 LOOKS TO BE A WET DAY AS A COASTAL TROF/CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN            
 RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF              
 UPPER LOW WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND THE DGEX THE                 
 SLOWEST...KEEPING THE LOW OVR W MEX INTO THUR. FOR NOW WILL KEEP               
 RAIN CHCS AT 30-40 PERCENT BUT MAY BE INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE ON               
 TIMING INCREASES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WITH RAIN CHCS/SKY                
 COVER DIMINISHING FROM W TO E ON THU AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.           
 A COOLING TREND TAKES PLACE SUN THRU TUE DUE TO INCREASING                     
 MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND WED DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. THEN A WARMING              
 TREND THU/FRI WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...AND                
      WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...              
      AND BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20                   
      NM...AND COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP                    
      CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 GW/86...SHORT-TERM                                                             
 TE/81...LONG-TERM                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                     
 335 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TOR WATCH TIL 8 PM              
 OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF CWFA. WINDS STILL UP AT KCRP BUT                  
 LOWER ELSEWHERE SO WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF              
 THE AFERTNOON. MAIN WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO GET GOING LATE                   
 THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS UPPER                  
 ENERGY APPROACHES AND ERODES THE CAP. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION                
 OVER THE CWA HELD BY CAP BUT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. ONCE UPPER              
 ENERGY APPROACHES...EXPECT CONVECTIVE LINE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING             
 AND SPREAD EASTWARD. LATEST RUC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW                  
 TROUGH IS MOVING FASTER THAN NAM WAS SHOWING...GFS SEEMS MORE IN               
 LINE. THUS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE EAST OF A FREER TO TILDEN LINE.              
 CATEGORICAL POPS EAST WITH LIKELY POPS WEST. THINK MAIN SEVERE                 
 CONCERN WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL AT THIS                  
 TIME...INCLUDING FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH LESS                
 CONFIDENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN AM OVER THE NORTH. ENERGY ALOFT                   
 CONTINUES TONIGHT BUT INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY GOES AWAY...SO                    
 THUNDER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT OVER INLAND SECTIONS BUT               
 STILL BE THERE...MORE THUNDER IN THE GULFMEX. MODELS STILL SHOWING             
 ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT ON SATURDAY TO WARRANT SOME LIGHT             
 RAIN EASTERN 2/3 OF AREA...HOWEVER...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POPS               
 SOME AS FEEL MOST OF THE AREAS WILL HAVE TROUBLE TIPPING THE                   
 BUCKET/OBTAINING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SINCE GFS HAS BEEN HANDLING              
 FEATURES BETTER THAN NAM/NGM WENT CLOSER TO GFS NUMBERS FOR                    
 TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...GFS-MOS IS SHOWING              
 POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER...THINK MOS DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT ON               
 THE HIGH SIDE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON THE FOG FOR NOW.                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TEMPORARILY TONIGHT BEFORE CONVECTIVE            
 LINE MOVES THROUGH. THINK WINDS WILL STAY UP AFTER CONVECTIVE LINE             
 SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...GRADUALLY ENDING IT             
 FOR THE BAYS BY MORNING AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. PRETTY MUCH               
 CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE...THEN LIGHT RAIN CHANCE             
 ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP AFTER THAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH PERIOD.           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...CATAGOCIAL THUNDER IN FOR THE EVENING XCPT AT KLRD BUT             
 ENDING BY 05Z. COULD BE CLOSE TO SVR WND AT KVCT. HAVE ALSO                    
 MENTIONED -RA AFTER INSTABILITY MOVES EAST OF AREA AFTER 05Z WTH               
 VCTS OVR ERN AREA. IMPROVING CIGS BY 15Z WITH NO -RA MENTIONED                 
 THOUGH COULD HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES AFTER THAT.                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK           
 NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORT WAVE/TROF PROGD TO SWING                
 ACROSS S TX THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN               
 PLACE THEREFORE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE ON                  
 SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WEAK RIDGING TAKES PLACE AHD OF              
 THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL            
 MAINTAIN A NELY FLOW WHILE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT OF THE S              
 TUE THRU WED. THIS WILL USHER IN MOISTURE AND ENHANCE ISENTROPIC               
 UPGLIDE. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TUE. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGD            
 TO MOVE ACROSS W TX WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE OUT AHD OF IT. WED              
 LOOKS TO BE A WET DAY AS A COASTAL TROF/CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN            
 RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF              
 UPPER LOW WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND THE DGEX THE                 
 SLOWEST...KEEPING THE LOW OVR W MEX INTO THUR. FOR NOW WILL KEEP               
 RAIN CHCS AT 30-40 PERCENT BUT MAY BE INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE ON               
 TIMING INCREASES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WITH RAIN CHCS/SKY                
 COVER DIMINISHING FROM W TO E ON THU AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.           
 A COOLING TREND TAKES PLACE SUN THRU TUE DUE TO INCREASING                     
 MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND WED DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. THEN A WARMING              
 TREND THU/FRI WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 CORPUS CHRISTI    56  67  48  71  46  /  90  30  10  10  10                    
 VICTORIA          53  64  45  69  42  / 100  30  10  10  10                    
 LAREDO            53  69  48  73  46  /  50  10   0  10  10                    
 ALICE             54  68  46  73  44  /  80  30  10  10  10                    
 ROCKPORT          58  65  49  68  48  /  90  30  10  10  10                    
 COTULLA           50  67  43  72  41  /  70  10   0  10  10                    
 KINGSVILLE        55  67  46  73  47  /  80  30  10  10  10                    
 NAVY CORPUS       58  68  50  69  51  /  90  30  10  10  10                    
 &&                                                                             
 .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...AND                
      WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...              
      AND BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20                   
      NM...AND COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP                    
      CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 TE/81...SHORT-TERM                                                             
 GW/86...LONG-TERM                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 1200 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT METROPLEX TAF SITES LOOK TO BE                      
 TEMPORARY AS SE WINDS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE MOIST LAYER. EXPECT               
 VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE                
 CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AFT 06Z. BY 12Z...CONTINUED                   
 MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NEAR SATURATION CONDITIONS                 
 NEAR THE GROUND LIKELY TO RESULT IN IFR CIGS. AS INFLUENCE OF                  
 AZ/NM UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LIKELY TO BEGIN               
 SPREADING INTO AREA AFT 12Z.  /09                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM CST THU DEC 28 2006/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR             
 TODAY BASED ON DRY PROGS FROM NAM/RUC MODELS...AS THE GFS IS OVERLY            
 AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  LOW CLOUDS                 
 SHOULD HANG TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF           
 SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.  HAVE               
 LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE NORTH AND BACKED THE WIND               
 DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR ALL ZONES.                                      
 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SYSTEM IN             
 THE SW US. THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW                    
 AGAIN...WHICH MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH THIS MORNINGS RAOB                 
 SAMPLING OF A 170 KT UPPER JET OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.                       
 CONSEQUENTLY THE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND            
 POPS TONIGHT MAY BE TOO HIGH...BUT WILL NEED TO WAIT AND LOOK AT THE           
 REST OF THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.                              
 TR.92                                                                          
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 VERY DIFFICULT 12Z TAF SET THIS A.M...AS GFS/ETA MOS GUIDANCE ARE              
 INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS LATER THIS A.M...BUT RUC SOUNDINGS          
 ARE ONLY INDICATING A DROP TO TO MVFR CONDS. PER OBS/FOG IR...WILL             
 LEAN WITH THE MVFR CONDS AND NOT DROP ANY N TX TAF SITES INTO IFR CONDS        
 ATTM...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. EXPECT SUSTAINED SE WINDS TO INCREASE         
 TO BETWEEN 15-20 KTS BY AFTN...WITH GSTS TO 25 KTS...AS MIXING OF              
 40KT+ LLJ ENHANCES TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE INSERTED LLWS                 
 THRU 15Z DUE TO DECOUPLING...THOUGH IT`S NAMELY SPEED SHEAR.                   
 BY TNGT...FEEL CAP WILL KEEP A LID ON N-CENTRAL TX MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE...    
 BUT DID ALLOW FOR SOME PROB30 SHALLOW -SHRA BELOW THE CAP...AS IT SLOWLY       
 RISES AND WEAKENS. DO NOT XPCT TSRA THO PER BEST LIFT REMAINING WELL           
 W OF D/FW AREA THRU 12Z FRI. WILL CONT TO BACK SFC WNDS AFTR 00Z TO            
 REFLECT DEEPENING/APPROACHING SFC LOW OVER HI PLAINS IN THE 00Z- 12Z           
 FRI PD.                                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU DEC 28 2006/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 420 AM CST                                                                     
 STRATUS STREAMING INTO NORTH TEXAS...CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST                     
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AND SFC MOISTURE                   
 STILL RECOVERING...CAP SHOULD HOLD STRONG. VERY DRY AIR WILL                   
 REMAIN ABOVE 850MB...AND A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER SHOULD BE THE EXTENT              
 OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY. GFS PERFECT PROG PRECIP SEEMS TO BE                
 OVEREMPHASIZING THIS PROCESS.                                                  
 DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN WEST TEXAS TODAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL               
 MOISTURE LIMITED. HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL RESULT                 
 FROM LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL ASCENT...WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND                  
 SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. STEERING FLOW FOR THIS CONVECTION                
 WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST...BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP                   
 SOUTHWARD AS EASTWARD PROGRESSION ALLOWS MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY TO              
 FEED OFF OF INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE. SUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE             
 NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER ON LOWER TERRAIN. (SOMEWHAT SLOWER                    
 MOVEMENT OF ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS DELAYED POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...                
 AND EXTENDED MORE INTO FRIDAY EVENING.) ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL               
 BE IN WESTERN CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY               
 HELP TO ERODE THE CAP...BUT EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ELEVATED               
 UNTIL SFC BOUNDARY REACHES AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FRIDAY                 
 AFTERNOON. DRYLINE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL              
 ASCENT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE               
 THE ERODING CAP.                                                               
 SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW END. HAIL IS EASIER              
 TO COME BY THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER ELEVATED              
 CELLS. DEEP CONVECTION AND SVR WINDS WILL BE BEST SUITED TO SFC-               
 BASED SQUALL LINE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY.                   
 UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT...AND SOME CLOUDINESS NORTH MAY                
 LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR WILL HELP               
 KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.                  
 ANOTHER SOUTHERN TRACK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK. 25                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  58  62  43  56 /  10  50  90  50  20                 
 WACO, TX              68  60  66  44  59 /  10  50  70  50  20                 
 PARIS, TX             61  54  65  46  58 /  10  30  80  70  30                 
 DENTON, TX            63  55  61  42  56 /  10  50  90  50  20                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          63  56  63  44  56 /  10  50  90  50  20                 
 DALLAS, TX            63  59  63  44  56 /  10  50  90  50  20                 
 TERRELL, TX           63  56  65  46  58 /  10  40  90  50  20                 
 CORSICANA, TX         65  59  66  48  60 /  10  40  80  50  20                 
 TEMPLE, TX            68  60  67  46  60 /  10  50  70  50  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 09/99/99                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 950 AM CST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR             
 TODAY BASED ON DRY PROGS FROM NAM/RUC MODELS...AS THE GFS IS OVERLY            
 AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  LOW CLOUDS                 
 SHOULD HANG TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF           
 SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.  HAVE               
 LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE NORTH AND BACKED THE WIND               
 DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR ALL ZONES.                                      
 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SYSTEM IN             
 THE SW US. THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW                    
 AGAIN...WHICH MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH THIS MORNINGS RAOB                 
 SAMPLING OF A 170 KT UPPER JET OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.                       
 CONSEQUENTLY THE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND            
 POPS TONIGHT MAY BE TOO HIGH...BUT WILL NEED TO WAIT AND LOOK AT THE           
 REST OF THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.                              
 TR.92                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VERY DIFFICULT 12Z TAF SET THIS A.M...AS GFS/ETA MOS GUIDANCE ARE              
 INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS LATER THIS A.M...BUT RUC SOUNDINGS          
 ARE ONLY INDICATING A DROP TO TO MVFR CONDS. PER OBS/FOG IR...WILL             
 LEAN WITH THE MVFR CONDS AND NOT DROP ANY N TX TAF SITES INTO IFR CONDS        
 ATTM...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. EXPECT SUSTAINED SE WINDS TO INCREASE         
 TO BETWEEN 15-20 KTS BY AFTN...WITH GSTS TO 25 KTS...AS MIXING OF              
 40KT+ LLJ ENHANCES TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE INSERTED LLWS                 
 THRU 15Z DUE TO DECOUPLING...THOUGH IT`S NAMELY SPEED SHEAR.                   
 BY TNGT...FEEL CAP WILL KEEP A LID ON N-CENTRAL TX MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE...    
 BUT DID ALLOW FOR SOME PROB30 SHALLOW -SHRA BELOW THE CAP...AS IT SLOWLY       
 RISES AND WEAKENS. DO NOT XPCT TSRA THO PER BEST LIFT REMAINING WELL           
 W OF D/FW AREA THRU 12Z FRI. WILL CONT TO BACK SFC WNDS AFTR 00Z TO            
 REFLECT DEEPENING/APPROACHING SFC LOW OVER HI PLAINS IN THE 00Z- 12Z           
 FRI PD.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU DEC 28 2006/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 420 AM CST                                                                     
 STRATUS STREAMING INTO NORTH TEXAS...CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST                     
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AND SFC MOISTURE                   
 STILL RECOVERING...CAP SHOULD HOLD STRONG. VERY DRY AIR WILL                   
 REMAIN ABOVE 850MB...AND A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER SHOULD BE THE EXTENT              
 OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY. GFS PERFECT PROG PRECIP SEEMS TO BE                
 OVEREMPHASIZING THIS PROCESS.                                                  
 DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN WEST TEXAS TODAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL               
 MOISTURE LIMITED. HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL RESULT                 
 FROM LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL ASCENT...WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND                  
 SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. STEERING FLOW FOR THIS CONVECTION                
 WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST...BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP                   
 SOUTHWARD AS EASTWARD PROGRESSION ALLOWS MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY TO              
 FEED OFF OF INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE. SUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE             
 NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER ON LOWER TERRAIN. (SOMEWHAT SLOWER                    
 MOVEMENT OF ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS DELAYED POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...                
 AND EXTENDED MORE INTO FRIDAY EVENING.) ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL               
 BE IN WESTERN CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY               
 HELP TO ERODE THE CAP...BUT EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ELEVATED               
 UNTIL SFC BOUNDARY REACHES AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FRIDAY                 
 AFTERNOON. DRYLINE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL              
 ASCENT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE               
 THE ERODING CAP.                                                               
 SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW END. HAIL IS EASIER              
 TO COME BY THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER ELEVATED              
 CELLS. DEEP CONVECTION AND SVR WINDS WILL BE BEST SUITED TO SFC-               
 BASED SQUALL LINE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY.                   
 UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT...AND SOME CLOUDINESS NORTH MAY                
 LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR WILL HELP               
 KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.                  
 ANOTHER SOUTHERN TRACK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK. 25                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  58  62  43  53 /  20  50  90  50  20                 
 WACO, TX              68  60  66  44  57 /  20  50  70  50  20                 
 PARIS, TX             64  54  65  46  54 /  20  30  80  70  30                 
 DENTON, TX            66  55  61  42  52 /  20  50  90  50  20                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          64  56  63  44  52 /  20  50  90  50  20                 
 DALLAS, TX            66  59  63  44  54 /  20  50  90  50  20                 
 TERRELL, TX           65  56  65  46  55 /  20  40  90  50  20                 
 CORSICANA, TX         67  59  66  48  57 /  20  40  80  50  20                 
 TEMPLE, TX            69  60  67  46  59 /  20  50  70  50  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 25/05                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 551 AM CST THU DEC 28 2006                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VERY DIFFICULT 12Z TAF SET THIS A.M...AS GFS/ETA MOS GUIDANCE ARE              
 INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS LATER THIS A.M...BUT RUC SOUNDINGS          
 ARE ONLY INDICATING A DROP TO TO MVFR CONDS. PER OBS/FOG IR...WILL             
 LEAN WITH THE MVFR CONDS AND NOT DROP ANY N TX TAF SITES INTO IFR CONDS        
 ATTM...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. EXPECT SUSTAINED SE WINDS TO INCREASE         
 TO BETWEEN 15-20 KTS BY AFTN...WITH GSTS TO 25 KTS...AS MIXING OF              
 40KT+ LLJ ENHANCES TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE INSERTED LLWS                 
 THRU 15Z DUE TO DECOUPLING...THOUGH IT`S NAMELY SPEED SHEAR.                   
 BY TNGT...FEEL CAP WILL KEEP A LID ON N-CENTRAL TX MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE...    
 BUT DID ALLOW FOR SOME PROB30 SHALLOW -SHRA BELOW THE CAP...AS IT SLOWLY       
 RISES AND WEAKENS. DO NOT XPCT TSRA THO PER BEST LIFT REMAINING WELL           
 W OF D/FW AREA THRU 12Z FRI. WILL CONT TO BACK SFC WNDS AFTR 00Z TO            
 REFLECT DEEPENING/APPROACHING SFC LOW OVER HI PLAINS IN THE 00Z- 12Z           
 FRI PD.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU DEC 28 2006/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 420 AM CST                                                                     
 STRATUS STREAMING INTO NORTH TEXAS...CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST                     
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AND SFC MOISTURE                   
 STILL RECOVERING...CAP SHOULD HOLD STRONG. VERY DRY AIR WILL                   
 REMAIN ABOVE 850MB...AND A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER SHOULD BE THE EXTENT              
 OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY. GFS PERFECT PROG PRECIP SEEMS TO BE                
 OVEREMPHASIZING THIS PROCESS.                                                  
 DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN WEST TEXAS TODAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL               
 MOISTURE LIMITED. HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL RESULT                 
 FROM LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL ASCENT...WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND                  
 SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. STEERING FLOW FOR THIS CONVECTION                
 WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST...BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP                   
 SOUTHWARD AS EASTWARD PROGRESSION ALLOWS MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY TO              
 FEED OFF OF INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE. SUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE             
 NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER ON LOWER TERRAIN. (SOMEWHAT SLOWER                    
 MOVEMENT OF ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS DELAYED POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...                
 AND EXTENDED MORE INTO FRIDAY EVENING.) ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL               
 BE IN WESTERN CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY               
 HELP TO ERODE THE CAP...BUT EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ELEVATED               
 UNTIL SFC BOUNDARY REACHES AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FRIDAY                 
 AFTERNOON. DRYLINE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL              
 ASCENT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE               
 THE ERODING CAP.                                                               
 SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW END. HAIL IS EASIER              
 TO COME BY THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER ELEVATED              
 CELLS. DEEP CONVECTION AND SVR WINDS WILL BE BEST SUITED TO SFC-               
 BASED SQUALL LINE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY.                   
 UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT...AND SOME CLOUDINESS NORTH MAY                
 LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR WILL HELP               
 KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.                  
 ANOTHER SOUTHERN TRACK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK. 25                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  58  62  43  53 /  20  50  90  50  20                 
 WACO, TX              68  60  66  44  57 /  20  50  70  50  20                 
 PARIS, TX             64  54  65  46  54 /  20  30  80  70  30                 
 DENTON, TX            66  55  61  42  52 /  20  50  90  50  20                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          64  56  63  44  52 /  20  50  90  50  20                 
 DALLAS, TX            66  59  63  44  54 /  20  50  90  50  20                 
 TERRELL, TX           65  56  65  46  55 /  20  40  90  50  20                 
 CORSICANA, TX         67  59  66  48  57 /  20  40  80  50  20                 
 TEMPLE, TX            69  60  67  46  59 /  20  50  70  50  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 25/05                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                          
 830 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                     
 .UPDATED...A BAND OF PCPN WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST         
 AREA...THIS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND THE RUC HAD FRONTOGENETIC FORCING       
 IN THAT GENERAL AREA. ASOS SITES HAD PICKED UP AROUND 0.01 INCH EARLIER        
 SO DECISION WAS MADE TO INCREASE POPS. ANOTHER UPDATE WILL LIKELY BE           
 NEEDED IF DENSE FOG DOES NOT REDEVELOP.                                        
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE DENSE FOG          
 AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.                              
 SNOW HAD TAPERED OFF ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-         
 AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE SHALLOWING OUT ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIP WAS           
 TRANSITIONING TO A STEADY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. DENSE FOG WAS           
 OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF C/NC WI.                                             
 HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER IN THE            
 AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS           
 WAS BASED ON VSBY TRENDS OFF THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. WITH WEAK EAST           
 FLOW...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE AND A COLD GROUND...EXPECT THE FOG TO            
 PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.           
 FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE         
 NIGHT...WITH SATURATION FOM THE SFC THROUGH 800-750 MB. EXPECT TEMPS TO        
 REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...        
 SO NO ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED THERE. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS NW OF A LINE       
 FROM WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN JUST BARELY WARMED TO THE FREEZING MARK           
 THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CERTAINLY DROP AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES                
 OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...          
 HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVSY FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF GRB CWA.          
 FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOIST LAYER SHALLOWING OUT ENOUGH TO BRING AN          
 END TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE ADVSY AREA TOWARD 12Z/SAT. PATCHY           
 DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF C/EC WI.          
 STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY.                               
 .LONG TERM...SAT NGT THRU NXT FRI. SPLIT FLOW PATN TO PERSIST THRU NXT         
 WEEK WITH WEAKER NRN BRANCH REMAINING OVR SRN CANADA AND MORE ACTIVE SRN       
 BRANCH BRINGING PCPN TO THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. NXT SRN BRANCH UPR        
 LOW TO TAKE MORE OF A SRN TRACK COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSORS...THUS A          
 MAINLY DRY PERIOS IS IN THE OFFING FOR NE WI. PACIFIC AIRMASS WL KEEP          
 TEMPS ABV NORMAL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.                                         
 CLOSED UPR LOW IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING NE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SAT NGT       
 AS A 110 KT UPR JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF. LRG BAND OF PCPN          
 EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING NORTH THRU THE MIDWEST DURING THE NGT...HOWEVER         
 BEST FORCING AND LIFT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...THUS ONLY A CHC OF PCPN         
 REACHING CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK. APRS TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WL STAY AT OR       
 SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING OVR CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI SO ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL          
 WOULD BE ALL LIQUID. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON               
 SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND LIFT SPREAD ACROSS WI.         
 STILL PREFER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE OF PCPN OVERSPREADING NE WI FROM           
 SOUTH TO NORTH...OTHERWISE IT IS HARD TO ARGUE ABT PCPN CHCS WITH MDLS         
 INDICATING GOOD Q-VEC CONVERGENCE...MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS...CONTINUAL          
 ISEN LIFT AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FOR EXTRA LIFT. MAIN QSTN FOR SUNDAY        
 WL BE PCPN TYPE FOR THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. FOR CNTRL WI...IT APRS       
 THAT PCPN WL TRANSITION FROM ALL RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COOLER AIR         
 BEGINS TO WRAP IN FROM THE NW. NRN WI EXPECTED TO ONLY SEE MAX TEMPS           
 AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABV. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MIXED PCPN EVENT         
 OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW IN THE MORNING AND THEN TRANSITION TO A       
 RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS.       
 THE SFC LOW MOVS INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS SUNDAY NGT ACCOMPANIED BY              
 ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD Q-FEC CONVERGENCE AND DECENT LIFT. PREFER TO BUMP        
 POPS UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH PCPN TYPE          
 AGAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. WHILE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN                 
 INITIALLY...FCST SNDNGS INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD START AS A RAIN/SNOW         
 MIX SUNDAY EVENING FOR NRN AND CNTRL WI BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. ERN       
 WI WL START AS ALL RAIN BEFORE MIXING WITH SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING       
 THE OVRNGT HRS. THE SFC LOW TO TRACK FROM SW LWR MI TOWARD THE ERN GREAT       
 LKS ON MON WITH A DIMINISHING CHC OF PCPN. TEMPS STILL LOOK WARM ENUF          
 FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVR E-CNTRL WI WHILE ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVR THE          
 REST OF THE FCST AREA. SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE MSTR WL HAVE ALREADY          
 MOVED EWD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. DUE TO          
 THE MILD START TO THE DAY...PREFER TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS ON          
 MON.                                                                           
 STORM CONTS TO PULL AWAY MON NGT WITH HI PRES OVR THE CNTRL ROCKIES/           
 CNTRL PLAINS STARTING TO BRING DRIER AIR TO THE WRN GREAT LKS. A FLURRY        
 OR STRAY SNOW SHWR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LINGERING Q-VEC CONVERGENCE          
 MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT LGT PCPN. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE SLGT CHC        
 POP WORDING FROM PREV FCST ALONE FOR NOW. THE SPRAWLING AREAS OF HI PRES       
 TO THEN EXTEND FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUE          
 PROVIDING FOR SOME SUNSHINE WITH MILD CONDITIONS. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MAX        
 TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGS. THIS HI PRES WL THEN MOV EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL         
 U.S. INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WED KEEPING THE QUIET AND MILD              
 CONDITIONS GOING FOR NE WI. DUE TO PACIFIC ORIGIN AND LACK OF SNOW             
 CVR...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS A GOOD 3 OR 4 DEGS FROM PREV FCST.                 
 THE NXT SRN STREAM UPR LOW/TROF IS PROGGED TO MOV INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY       
 NXT THU. THE GFS ALREADY TRIES TO EJECT THIS SYSTEM AND FIND IT HARD TO        
 BELIEVE CONSIDERING THE TREND OF PREV SYSTEMS OVR THE PAST MONTH. PREFER       
 THE ECMWF HERE WHICH KEEPS THE UPR LOW/TROF OVR TX WHILE THE NOW-ERN           
 U.S. HI PRES MAINTAINS ITS GRASP ON OUR WEATHER. THERE WL BE ONGOING           
 CONSTERNATION IN THE COMING DAYS AS TO THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THIS UPR       
  LOW/TROF AMONG THE EXTENDED MDLS. PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS             
 SYSTEM EVOLVES BEFORE JUMPING ON POPS. THUS...WL LEAVE FRI DRY WITH            
 ANOTHER DAY OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY                                         
 WIZ018>020-030-031-035>037-045-                                                
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY                                     
 WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-                                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MG                                                                             
 WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 430 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/TYPE/AMOUNT SUN INTO MON.                  
 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW               
 ACROSS NOAM. A VIGOROUS CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE TX                 
 PANHANDLE WAS THE DOMINANT ACTIVE WEATHER FEATURE IN THE CONUS.                
 ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN              
 HIGH PLAINS. A DEPARTING AREA OF COLDER TOPS FROM E LK SUPERIOR TO             
 QUEBEC...PER IR LOOP...WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM SHRTWV FROM            
 NEAR JAMES BAY TO WRN LK SUPERIOR. RADAR INDICATED SOME -SN OR                 
 FLURRIES INTO E UPR MI ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. PCPN WAS ALSO             
 AIDED BY ANOTHER BAND OF 700-500 MB FGEN AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN                
 RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES               
 EXTENDED FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND NRN LK SUPERIOR             
 TO NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SW OK WITH A FRONT TO THE            
 NE THROUGH NE KS TO NRN IL. IR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWED AN                   
 EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING LINE WELL           
 TO THE NW OVER SRN MANITOBA. 05Z TAMDAR SNDGS INDICATED MOISTURE TO            
 NEAR 700 MB OVER FROM CYQT/KRHI THINNING OUT FARTHER W OVER MN.                
 TODAY...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD DEPART E UPR MI            
 EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE             
 EAST. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM/RUC/GFS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS WILL                 
 DIMINISH AS THE RDG CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT                  
 CLEARING MAY BE DELAYED SINCE THE MDLS WERE ALREADY TOO AGGRESSIVE             
 IN BRINGING CLEARING TO THE SE AND THAT RELATIVELY WEAK ADVECTION              
 AND LOW SUN ANGLE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE            
 BLO THE 925 MB INVERSION. LATER OR LIMITED CLEARING SHOULD LIMIT MAX           
 TEMPS TO VALUES AOB GUIDANCE.                                                  
 THE FCST WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD THE HPC PREFERRED GFS                      
 FOR THE COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH MON. HOWEVER...THE GFS MAY            
 A BIT FAST BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH THE MID LVL AND SFC                      
 LOW...GIVEN THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MUCH                 
 SLOWER NAM AGAIN WAS MORE OF AN OUTLIER AND WAS DISCOUNTED.                    
 TONIGHT INTO SUN...ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE S WILL GIVE             
 WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH DRY AIR TO FILTER            
 INTO THE AREA FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE CLOUDS THIN OUT.            
 THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. THE             
 GFS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND 295K-300K ISENTROPIC             
 LIFT THROUGH WI TO SW UPPER MI BY SUN MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD           
 SHORTWAVES EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS LOW. AS IS OFTEN THE                       
 CASE...CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH(OVER THE LWR/MID MS VALLEY) MAY                 
 INTERCEPT SOME OF THE NORTHBOUND MOISTURE...LIMITING PCPN AMOUNTS              
 FARTHER NORTH OVER UPPER MI. NEVERTHELESS PCPN AMOUNTS OF AROUND A             
 TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WHERE SFC TEMPS MAY            
 BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AFTER A BRIEF INITIAL PERIOD OF              
 EVAPORATION COOLING THAT COULD SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET...GFS               
 FCST SNDGS SHOW A WARM ENOUGH 900-700 MB LAYER FOR LIQUID PCPN.                
 GIVEN LOWER PROBABILITY OF QPF AND PROLONGED TEMPS BLO FREEZING                
 WINTER/ICE STORM WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED AT THIS TIME.                            
 ALTHOUGH THE GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW ENOUGH COOLING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO            
 SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE ECMWF/UKMET THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST           
 THAT TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD MORE LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE WARM                 
 PASSAGE OF THE INVERTED TROF SUN EVENING.                                      
 SUN NIGHT AND MON...THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE 700-500           
 MB DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING WILL SET UP OVER W UPPER MI.                       
 HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE 12/22/06 STORM...THE DRY SLOT IS LESS LIKELY TO           
 WRAP INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. SO...AS THE MID LVL AND SFC LOW SLIDE INTO           
 NRN LWR MI...DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH SOME LAKE              
 CONTRIBUTION (850 MB TEMPS ONLY NEAR -5C) SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST              
 MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS(OVERALL IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE) OVER THE              
 FAVORED NRLY WIND UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN THE W HLF OF THE CWA.                   
 AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA              
 WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN SNOW              
 CHANGEOVER AND LOCATION OF STRONGEST FORCING...FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.             
 A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN ADDITION TO THE HWO WILL BE ISSUED TO           
 HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TRAVEL FROM SUN INTO MON.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JLB                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION                            
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 520 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
 S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ONTARIO THIS MORNING IS SPAWNING                
 SOME SHSN JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN                    
 CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST              
 SPREADING A DECENT AREA OF PVA/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE                    
 CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING. 00Z                    
 SOUNDING FROM KALB WAS NOT ENCOURAGING FOR SNOW AS IT FEATURED                 
 QUITE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE LLEVELS. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN                
 VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...SUGGESTING             
 THAT THE LOWER TROP IS SLOWLY MOISTENING /ALSO INDICATED IN                    
 RUC/NAM BUFKIT PROFILES/...ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTENING HAS NOT YET                
 TRANSLATED INTO ANYTHING AT THE SURFACE...WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN               
 BETWEEN 10-15F AT SYR/UCA WHERE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE ENSURING              
 A STEADY SUPPLY OF DRY AIR UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT SOME                   
 LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER ONEIDA                     
 COUNTY...AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT AS THE S/WV PASSES                      
 OVERHEAD. MODEL QPFS SUGGEST A COATING-2" ISN`T OUT OF THE                     
 QUESTION OVER ONEIDA COUNTY. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...OVER THE FINGER               
 LAKES...SUSQUEHANNA...AND CATSKILL AREAS...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW               
 SHOWERS WITH NO MORE THAN A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION...POTENTIALLY              
 MIXING WITH RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS RISE TOWARDS                
 40. UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS AS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN IN             
 PLACE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.                                                    
 TONIGHT...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND AS NVA/DRYING ALOFT TAKE OVER.               
 TRAJECTORIES DO CONTINUE TO BE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE                 
 NIGHT HOWEVER...SO EXPECT MCLOUDY SKIES TO SETTLE IN FROM SYR-UCA.             
 ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE                   
 MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD ENSURE LIGHT WINDS. UNDERCUT MOS                
 TEMPS SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OF THE SYR-UCA AREA.                                    
 SUNDAY SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR WHERE THEY HAVEN`T ALREADY WITH A                
 NICE DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD AND THEN BEGINS               
 TO PUSH EAST. T925 BETWEEN -4-0C WILL ALLOW HIGHS IN THE U30S/L40S             
 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.                                                           
 MODELS STILL VERY DIFFERENT IN THEIR TIMING WITH THE UPCOMING                  
 SYSTEM FOR NEW YEARS EVE AND DAY. THE NAM IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER               
 THAN THE GFS WITH THE GFS BRINGING PCP IN AS EARLY AS 00Z MON. THE             
 NAM HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE SREFS AND EVEN THE MREFS...WITH THE              
 ECMF/CMC BEING SOMEWHAT OF A GFS/NAM COMPROMISE. THE GFS EVOLUTION             
 AT 500 LOOKS A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS SO HAVE USED A GFS/NAM COMPROMISE             
 THAT LEANS MORE TO THE NAM THINKING. THIS WILL BRING IN CLOUDINESS             
 LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP ARRIVING ABOUT THE TIME 2007                 
 DOES.                                                                          
 THE BIG QUESTION AT THE ONSET OF PCP WILL BE PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT                
 WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO SNOW IS OUT OF THE QUESTION YET                 
 AGAIN. WET BULB TEMP PROFILES QUICKLY GO ABOVE FREEZING AT 1000MB              
 BUT REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR A TIME AT 925MB. ENVISION ALL AREAS              
 STARTING WITH A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...WITH A VERY QUICK                       
 CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN OVER THE FINGER LAKES...TWIN TIER REGION              
 AND WY VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE COOLER...AND               
 THE AREA WILL HAVE HAD MORE TIME TOO COOL RADIATIONALLY SUNDAY                 
 NIGHT...EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST LONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER               
 THE ELEVATED REGIONS OF THE CATSKILLS/POCONOS AND SUSQUEHANNA                  
 REGIONS. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY FLOW UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY WILL                 
 LIKELY PROLONG THE ZR AT PLACES LIKE UCA. SOME AREAS MAY STAY COLD             
 ENOUGH FOR ZR INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD                
 CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY BEFORE PCP ENDS. PCP AMOUNTS DON`T              
 LOOK INCREDIBLY IMPRESSIVE....SO ATTM WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE NO               
 MORE THAN AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT OVER THE FAVORED AREAS MENTIONED             
 ABOVE. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.             
 WITH THE MODELS STILL HANDLING THIS SYSTEM QUITE DIFFERENTLY...                
 STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE SITUATION.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                    
 FCST AREA IN A NEAR FLAT ZONAL FLOW WITH ABV NRML HGTS. LTL TO                 
 TRIGGER ANY REAL WX. SOME LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT PCPN INTO TUE NGT               
 AS THE NW FLOW PETERS OUT. OTRW DRY AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SYSTEM                
 FRI. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS NOW HAS A DEEPENING CSTL LOW FOR FRI NGT              
 AND SAT...THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT             
 OVERALL THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /301000Z - 310600Z/...                                               
 LOWER CLOUD DECK HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY           
 EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO            
 PREVAIL TODAY. BRIEF EPISODES OF IFR ARE EVEN POSSIBLE AT SITES                
 WHERE ANY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.                                                 
 SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO           
 NORTHWEST BY MID-AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KT.                                        
 THIS EVENING...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS DRYING SETS           
 IN. VFR EXPECTED AREA-WIDE AFTER 00Z...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...JMA                                                               
 LONG TERM...DGM                                                                
 AVIATION...MLJ                                                                 
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                           
 1038 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 WILL KEEP WINTER HIGHLIGHTS WHERE THEY ARE...BUT WILL LOWER SNOWFALL           
 TOTALS FROM ABOUT A GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE ON EASTWARD. SNOW IS               
 HAVING A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF A GUYMON TO HEREFORD             
 LINE AS COLUMN AS NOT COOLED SUFFICIENTLY WITH UPPER LOW STILL SO FAR          
 AWAY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A VORT LOBE HAS ROTATED NORTH AHEAD            
 OF MAIN LOW AND IS NOW NEAR CLOVIS NEW MEXICO AND THIS HAS SET OFF A           
 WIDE BAND OF SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWEST            
 SOUTH PLAINS. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHWEST AND WILL           
 CATCH THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.           
 THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL                    
 PANHANDLES ON EAST AS TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM ON THE SHOWERS MOVING              
 NORTHWEST INTO THE PANHANDLES. THERE STILL MAY BE A CHANCE TO GET 4            
 INCHES PLUS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON          
 SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE WARNING AREA GETS UNDER          
 THE WRAP AROUND AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT              
 KAMA. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE            
 NEXT FEW HOURS AS THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE        
 LATEST SOUNDING BUT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW BELOW FREEZING...FEEL           
 THAT THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3              
 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...BUT IT            
 APPEARS THAT THE LAST FEW IR FRAMES SHOW THE LOW MAY FINALLY BE                
 MOVING TO THE EAST WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE STEADY (IF LESS INTENSE)            
 PRECIP WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.                                      
 WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR CHILDRESS WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY               
 NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND          
 OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING SNOW WILL CREATE            
 VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING           
 WITH PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DECIDED NOT TO SHOW          
 ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE TAFS IN CASE THE LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW                 
 PROGRESSION EAST.                                                              
 HENNIG                                                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE WINTER EVENT IS NOW BEGINNING TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL                 
 PANHANDLES. THE EASTERN PANHANDLES CHANGED OVER TO SNOW EARLY TODAY            
 WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES OF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. WV               
 IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE RUC             
 ANALYSIS PLACED A 100 TO 110 KT 300MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW           
 SO THINKING THE SYSTEM MAY STILL TRACK SOUTH BEFORE PUSHING NE                 
 TOMORROW. THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION IS THE QUICKEST LIFTING THE LOW              
 NORTH...BUT STILL PROJECTS HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES               
 OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z GFS KEEPS THE LOW A FEW MILES SOUTH OF THE NAM AND          
 ALSO A BIT FURTHER EAST. THINKING A COMBINATION OF THE TWO MODELS              
 WITH THE NAMS TIMING AND GFS LOCATION SEEMS TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO.          
 THIS WOULD CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE                 
 PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SNOW          
 SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...CURRENT OBS IN DHT AND              
 INTO CIMARRON COUNTY INDICATE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 30KT. GFS SOLUTION             
 HINTS TOWARDS INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THAT AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND              
 12Z. SO THINKING WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SUSTAIN 30KT IN AT LEAST                   
 DALLAM...HARTLEY AND CIMARRON COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SO            
 DECIDED TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS...AS VISIBILITIES          
 SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE CAUSING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. THEN             
 THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT          
 MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THAT WRAP AROUND PRECIP LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH           
 TO CAUSE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS.                                                
 SPENT LITTLE TIME ON THE EXTENDED BUT DID EVALUATE THE NEXT SYSTEM             
 SET TO REACH THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF             
 THE GFS TOOK THE LOW SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR LIMITED              
 PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER THE 18Z RUN NOW BRINGS THE LOW                 
 SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH WITH MORE PRECIP PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT TIME            
 FRAME. THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN                   
 TIMING AND LOCATION...SO AM JUST CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE 20              
 POPS IN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                    
 WEDNESDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE MODELS ARE              
 MUCH TOO WEAK AND FAST WITH THE LOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CUT THE             
 LOW OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. THEY THEN SUGGEST THE LOW WILL KICK          
 EAST OF THE PANHANDLES WELL BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE           
 COAST. WOULD THINK THE CLOSED LOW WOULD LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL          
 NEXT UPPER TROUGH REACHES AT LEAST CALIFORNIA. BUT THAT IS ALL 6 TO 7          
 DAYS OUT SO AM NOT READY TO ADJUST POP GRIDS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW             
 MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE SYSTEM.                                              
 JJB                                                                            
 .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...HANSFORD...               
      HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...                   
      OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.                            
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE               
      FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.                                        
      BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.                                                  
 OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING            
      ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.                                                    
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE               
      FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                
      BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
      ZONES: CIMARRON.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 10/15                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 1105 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MSAS/RUC DEFINITIVELY SHOWS A COASTAL TROF               
 JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CHS CWFA. THE COMBINATION OF LLVL CONVERGENCE             
 AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF DECENT OMEGA LIFT           
 IN SE GA...MAKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVG INLAND OVER THE SRN               
 HALF OF THE CWFA. IN COMPARING THE NAM AND GFS...THE GFS BRINGS THE            
 PRECIP WAY TOO FAR N TOO EARLY WHEREAS THE NAM IS HANDLING THE                 
 DRZL/SHWR ACTIVITY OVER GA THE BEST BY FOCUSING THE ACTIVITY S OF              
 THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND LESSER AMTS N. HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO SHOW CHC            
 ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH SLGT CHC N.             
 HAVE ALSO SUBSEQUENTLY INCRD CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA BASED            
 ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND LLVL MOISTURE SCHEMES OF THE NAM.                      
 DESPITE INCRD CLOUD COVER OVER MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE CWFA...TEMPS             
 HAS RISEN NICELY ABOVE FCST CURVE SO HAVE TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS AND             
 ADJUSTED TEMP CURVE TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDS. DEVELOPING LOW              
 AND MID LVL SLY FLOW HELPING TO WARM BLYR AND THIS IS SHOWN ON KCHS            
 RAOB WITH SFC ELY WINDS BUT QUICKLY SHIFTING TO SE 800 FT UP AND TO            
 SLY 1500 FT UP.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...MSAS AND BUOYS SHOW A FAIRLY DISTINCT COASTAL TROF OVER              
 THE MARINE AREA...MAKING FOR GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND INCRD WAVE                  
 HEIGHTS. CHAS PILOT BOAT REPORTED 3-4 FT WAVES...WITH AN ADDITIONAL            
 1-2 FT SWELL...AND NE 15KT WINDS ABOUT 10NM OUT. THESE REPORTS ALONG           
 WITH THE CONTINUED PINCHED GRADIENT THRU AT LEAST THIS AFTN WILL               
 CAUSE THE SCA TO REMAIN OVER ALL MARINE ZONES EXCEPT CHAS HARBOR.              
 WW3 KEEPS 4-6 FT WAVES WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH ALSO CONFIRMS           
 THE FCST.                                                                      
 HAVE INCRD THE DURATION OF AND THICKNESS OF SEA FOG IN THE GRIDS...            
 STARTING LATE THIS EVE AND LASTING THRU MIDDAY TMRW. CONSIDERING               
 RECENT PAST EVENTS PLAYED A PART IN DOING SO...AND WOULD RATHER                
 EXPAND THE TIME PERIOD FOG MAY OCCUR RATHER THAN LEAVE AS IS OR                
 SHORTEN.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /15Z-12Z/...WITH GOOD ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE BLYR                   
 DEPICTED ON 12Z KCHS RAOB AND ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THRU THIS AFTN...             
 MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL IN THESE LOWEST LAYERS AND MAKE FOR             
 LOW VFR CIGS IF NOT MVFR CIGS. KSAV HAS THE BETTER CHC OF SEEING               
 MVFR CIGS DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER                
 MOISTURE. FEW SHWRS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL LET 12Z TAFS RUN            
 AS THEY ARE ADVERTISED BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF MORE            
 SUSTAINED PRECIP NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED IN TAFS. WINDS NOT AN ISSUE...           
 REMAINING AOB 11 KT. WILL ALSO INVESTIGATE FOG POSSIBILITIES IN NEXT           
 SET OF ROUTINE TAFS.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ350-352-354-374.                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JPC                                                                            
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 1025 AM CST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                    
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IN THE MIDWEST INDICATING THAT THE RAIN IN                 
 CENTRAL MISSOURI IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT NORTHEAST INTO                
 EASTERN MO AND IL. MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS             
 HOLDING STRONG ACROSS IL...WHICH IS KEEPING THE RAIN AT BAY. THE               
 12Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE 700-500 MB               
 LAYER...AND BELOW 900 MB IN THE LOWEST 4000 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.              
 THE 12Z RUC AND NAM/WRF ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT ON HOLDING ON TO THE             
 DRY AIR UNTIL THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL. THE RESULT OF            
 ALL OF THIS WILL BE AN UPDATE IN THE FORECAST TO DROP THE MENTION OF           
 RAIN COMPLETELY IN EASTERN IL FOR TODAY...LOWER POPS TO THE SLIGHT             
 CHANCE CATEGORY IN CENTRAL IL. WILL ONLY HOLD ON TO A 30 POP IN THE            
 FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WEST OF A LINE FROM                
 GALESBURG TO JACKSONVILLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
 DESPITE THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNSEASONABLY              
 WARM AGAIN...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE ENTIRE            
 AREA.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 LARGE STORM SYSTEM EJECTING NE FROM TEXAS INTO THE MIDWEST THIS                
 WEEKEND TO BRING WET AND MILD WEATHER TO IL. FORECAST CHALLENGE                
 IS RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH MON. GFS...NAM/WRF AND UKMET IN                  
 BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THIS STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND                  
 AND FOLLOWED. NGM LOOKS A BIT TOO SLOW WITH ITS QPF FIELDS.                    
 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                     
 09Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SW OK WITH A            
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCHED INTO EASTERN KS...SE IOWA AND NW IL. 1038 MB           
 HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT           
 LAKES INTO ND AND LAKE WINNIPEG. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FUELED BY 40            
 TO 45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DEEP MOISTURE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD                
 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS WESTERN MO. A FEW LIGHT           
 SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL NORTH OF               
 I-74 AND SOUTH OF I-88. MILD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH                
 PEORIA AT 51F. MOIST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.                 
 ALOFT A DEEP 550 DM 500 MB CUTOFF LOW WAS OVER EASTERN NM WHILE A              
 555 DM 500 MB CUTOFF LOW WAS OVER FAR NW SD.                                   
 MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF TODAY AND MAINLY JUST FEW TO SCATTERED             
 LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS NE INTO            
 CENTRAL IL BY NOON AND NORTH OF AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE            
 ANOTHER MILD DAY LIKE YESTERDAY DESPITE ALL THE CLOUD COVER WITH               
 HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SE IL BY LAWENCEVILLE AT 60F.               
 BRUNT OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AND ADDED                  
 ISOLATED THUNDER BY OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF I-74 PER SPC GENERAL RISK OF            
 THUNDER AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS TOWARD KANSAS CITY BY DAWN SUNDAY.              
 GULF WIDE OPEN WITH THIS STORM AND HAS DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.             
 HEAVIEST RAINS APPEARS TO AFFECT SE IL TONIGHT AND SHIFT INTO                  
 INDIANA SUNDAY. MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY           
 IN THE MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER PER SPC GENERAL RISK OF THUNDER           
 AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z/MON WITH STRONG               
 UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER IL SUNDAY.                                           
 RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TO PROB30/40 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS STORM            
 ACCELERATES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF LINGERS             
 OVER IL KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AROUND. TEMPS COOL MON WITH HIGHS IN THE            
 LOW TO MID 40S. MODELS COOL 850 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C LATE SUNDAY NIGHT            
 INTO MON BUT LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME.              
 DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER AWAY           
 FROM IL.                                                                       
 LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...                                           
 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO IL AND THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL            
 PLAINS TUE/WED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10            
 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN              
 THE MID TO UPPER 20S.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MILLER/HUETTL                                                                  
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 1004 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 SKIES CLEARED TOWARD SUNRISE AND THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ASPECT                
 RESULTED IN THE FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. WHEN MODIFYING THE                 
 SOUNDINGS FROM YESTERDAY UTILIZING THE UPS TECHNIQUE...IT DID SHOW             
 FOG BEING MORE WIDESPREAD THAN OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD HAVE                   
 SUGGESTED (MODELS HAD WAY TOO MUCH STRATUS). LATEST 1KM VISIBLE                
 IMAGERY AND METARS SHOW THE FOG DECK SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE EDGES             
 AND HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.                                       
 THE NEXT ISSUE IS THE BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI CITIES             
 AND THUMB. COMBINATION OF SHEARED OUT VORTMAX APPROACHING (AS SEEN             
 IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) AND DEPARTURE OF 100+KT JET TO OUR                    
 NORTHEAST HAS RESULTED IN A LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION AND THE                     
 TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 850-700MB. INCLUDED THE              
 CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THOSE NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING              
 AS THIS WAVE...PROGGED BY THE NAM12 AND RUC13...SHOULD QUICKLY                 
 TRACK EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS                
 INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 650 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                           
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 WILL INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES SOUTH OF M 59 HAVE           
 CONSISTENTLY DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS...AT LEAST OUTSIDE            
 THE URBAN AREA WHERE THE LOCAL HEAT ISLAND EFFECT IS TEMPERING FOG             
 FORMATION TO SOME EXTENT. THE POOREST VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO             
 THE SOUTH OF DETROIT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. CONDITIONS           
 WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.                                                   
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 540 AM                                             
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 FOG WILL BE A MINOR ISSUE THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH KDTW            
 PERHAPS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE AT VISIBILITIES AOB 1SM FOR A SHORT           
 TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS WILL HOVER IN THE 3-5SM             
 AREA FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE           
 RATHER DIFFICULT DURING THE DAY AS VARIOUS LEVELS OF STRATUS WILL              
 CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AREA...AT LEAST AT TIMES.                               
 THE TREND TONIGHT SHOULD BE FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. THIS IS            
 SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT THOUGH GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF THESE VARIOUS AREAS             
 OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR           
 NOW AND LET THE DAYSHIFT ADJUST THE FORECAST BASED ON HOW QUICKLY              
 THE CLOUDS BURN OFF DURING THE DAY.                                            
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 316 AM                                             
 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE            
 TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL               
 DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL             
 CLIMB INTO THE 40S TODAY WITH THE HELP OF SOME MINIMAL SUNSHINE.               
 LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THANKS TO A             
 CONTINUED CLEARING TREND. STILL...THESE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE            
 NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALL AND ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES             
 MADE TO THE GOING SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                         
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 IT`S GOING TO RAIN ON SUNDAY...THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHEN AS THE                
 UPPER LOW OVER EL PASO TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 00Z                          
 GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY CONVERGE ON THE             
 TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH              
 THE GFS STILL APPEARING TO BE A TOUCH FAST (3 HRS) BASED ON THE                
 CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO PROBLEMS IN THE QPF FIELDS. WILL             
 CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST BY LOWERING POPS FURTHER SUNDAY             
 MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO                 
 OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z MONDAY AS THE GOOD                    
 ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SETS IN.                                  
 WILL BE CARRYING CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY EVENING AS OCCLUSION/TROWAL           
 SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LOWERING POPS OVERNIGHT (40                
 SOUTH-60 NORTH) AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS IN. STILL LOTS OF LOW              
 LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ON MONDAY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED               
 LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE             
 THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY EVEN HAVE TO            
 BE INCREASED AS GOOD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD BE NEARBY.                    
 WITH THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BECOMING                
 ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION...ENOUGH COLD AIR EXPECTED TO BE               
 INFUSED TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT                
 BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.                                                     
 PREVIOUS MENTIONED MODELS...ALONG WITH 00Z EUROPEAN...ALL INDICATING           
 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                   
 TUESDAY...AND HAVE PULLED THE MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION AS LARGE            
 SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LINGERING INTO                     
 WEDNESDAY. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND           
 TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CONCERNED MOISTURE/LOW STRATUS WILL BE TRAPPED              
 UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND MAY NEED MORE CLOUDS FOR THE MID WEEK                 
 PERIOD. IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS...THE CURRENT FORECASTED MINS WILL            
 LIKELY BE TOO COLD.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...BGM                                                               
 LONG TERM....SF                                                                
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                              
 1019 AM CST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 BACK EDGE OF PRECIP IS ROTATING TO THE EAST AND NORTH ACROSS                   
 EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS SEEMS TO BE PICKED UP WELL IN THE UVV                   
 FIELDS OF THE 12Z RUC AND WRF/NAM MODELS. THEY BOTH IMPLY THE                  
 CURRENT PRECIP WILL BE THE LAST OF IT FOR TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED                 
 POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST                         
 AR...PRIMARILY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE                
 ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE EARLY              
 THIS AFTERNOON TO AGAIN ADJUST FOR THE PRECIP TRENDS.                          
 MODIFIED THE MAX TEMPS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY IN CONSIDERATION OF THE              
 EXPECTED PRECIP AND FOR THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS FROM THE 12Z MOS RUNS.              
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 TUL   60  39  47  32 /  70  10  20  10                                         
 FSM   63  45  52  34 /  70  10  20  10                                         
 MLC   63  40  48  31 /  40   0  10  10                                         
 BVO   60  39  44  28 /  80  20  20  10                                         
 FYV   61  41  47  31 /  80  20  20  10                                         
 BYV   58  43  51  31 /  90  40  20  10                                         
 MKO   61  41  48  30 /  60  10  10  10                                         
 MIO   60  42  50  30 /  90  30  20  10                                         
 F10   61  39  46  30 /  50   0  10  10                                         
 HHW   59  42  52  34 /  50  10  10  10                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OK...NONE.                                                                     
 AR...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...02                                                                
 LONG TERM....10                                                                
</pre> ok                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                         
 958 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN           
 LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF MISS               
 VALLEY AXIS OF SHRA. GIVEN DEGREE OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVERTOP LOW                 
 LEVEL INVERSION OFF 12Z RAOBS...APPEARS NORTHWARD                              
 EXTENT/ADVECTION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CLOUDS FROM NC THE MAIN                    
 CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC AND THE 12Z NAM SHOW THE                 
 MAJORITY OF SIG STRATO-CU ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE                
 LIFT/RH BETTER. FARTHER NORTH INTO VA/WVA FLOW TURNS MORE                      
 WESTERLY AND HEATING/MIXING LIKELY TO DETER MOISTURE A BIT.                    
 HOWEVER APPEARS BY LATE IN THE DAY THAT COMBO OF CI/SC WILL LIKELY             
 FILL IN ACROSS MOST OF THE SW HALF BUT STILL DRY. THUS PLAN TO GO              
 WITH MORE CLOUDY INTERVALS SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES AND PARTLY SUNNY              
 FAR WEST FOR CI...BUT MAINLY SUNNY IN WEDGE FROM BCB/ROA AND                   
 POINTS NE. THICKNESS VALUES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN GIVING             
 HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S. HOWEVER THINK MORE CLOUDS AND                 
 WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT ENOUGH TO STAY A BIT COOLER ESPCLY NW NC                
 IF CLOUDS FILL IN MORE.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 619 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006/                                            
 AVIATION /11Z-06Z/...                                                          
 3000-5000 FOOT CEILINGS ARE SPREADING NORTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE              
 BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME                   
 SCATTERED AFTER 14Z. OVERNIGHT MORE CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE               
 SOUTH AGAIN BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.                   
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 144 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
 SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND              
 SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS OF                 
 VIRGINIA. BUFKIT FORECAST SHOW SATURATED LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT 500               
 FEET THICK AND THAT WITH MIXING THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE STARTING           
 AROUND 14Z. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR ABOVE NORMAL                   
 TEMPERATURES TODAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE AS IT HAS BEEN             
 PERFORMING WELL THE PAST FEW DAYS.                                             
 THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT AND BELOW 850 MB ARE MORE                 
 SUBSTANTIAL ON THE MODELS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND                  
 FOOTHILLS TONIGHT THAT EVEN WITH THE CURRENT STRATUS. EXPECT MORE              
 LOW CLOUDS IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. MODELS             
 HOLD HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST           
 AREA TODAY THEN SPREAD THE MOISTURE NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN             
 BY 03Z MONDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE 1000-300 MB COMPLETELY COVERS THE              
 FORECAST AREA. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INFLOW FROM THE GULF                 
 SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE OF RAIN EVEN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY                
 WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY.                                                        
 THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LIFTS INTO THE              
 MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT           
 LAKES ON MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL FROM               
 SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE             
 OF RAIN IN ALL AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
 850 WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                  
 SUNDAY...BUT WITH SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE...ONLY FAR WESTERN COUNTIES           
 MAY TAP SOME OF THAT WARMER AIR. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONGER             
 850 MB JET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH 55 TO 60 KNOTS OUT OF THE              
 SOUTH OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR               
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DEEP IN THE WEDGE FOR SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP                
 RIDGES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WARMER.                        
 MODELS BRING IN ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 700 MB IN THE                   
 NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE           
 MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE WESTERN                 
 UPSLOPE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SECOND             
 SURGE OF COLD AIR COMING IN AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE           
 AREA ON MONDAY. WESTERN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WINDS IS NOT IDEAL            
 BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS SINCE PLENTY OF LOW           
 LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AROUND 12Z MONDAY LAYER AT COLD              
 AIR GETS DEEP ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.              
 THE UPPER LOW ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP NOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA GETS               
 ABSORBED BY THE LARGE SOUTHWEST LOW AND EVENTUALLY PROVIDES SOME               
 DYNAMICS AND LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE                 
 COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLAN ON ADDING SNOW SHOWERS FOR           
 HIGH ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AND                    
 INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT.               
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                    
 NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                       
 AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...                                                          
 MOSTLY CLEAR ACRS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH STRATUS               
 DECK AT AROUND 3500 FEET WORKING UP INTO THE NC COUNTIES AND THIS              
 MVFR DECK MAY WORK INTO DAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEAK               
 BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL VA AS SFC HIGH OVER NEW                 
 ENGLAND RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NOT MUCH EFFECT WITH                 
 THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND FEW HIGH CLOUDS.             
 LARGER CLOUD MASS DEEVLOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY                    
 OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS/VSBY CONDITIONS                
 TO BE MOSTLY VFR INTO TOMORROW EVENING.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VA...NONE.                                                                     
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 WV...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...JH                                                                
</pre> va                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                        
 240 PM CST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                    
 FIRST ROUND OF RAIN JUST E OF THE FA THIS AFTN. ANOTHER BATCH OF               
 RAIN CONTS TO LIFT NEWD ACRS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. ALL           
 THE ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS SLOLY DRIFTING EWD             
 IN THE TX PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW NOTED NEAR KICT...WITH AN             
 OCCLUDED BNDRY EXTENDING SEWD INTO NWRN LA.                                    
 THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO START LIFTING TO THE NE LATER TNGT AS A            
 STRONG JET MAX ROTATES ARND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL               
 RESULT IN A DIMINISHING RAIN CHCS OVERNIGHT FM THE SW AS DRIER AIR             
 ALOFT CONTS WORKS IN FM THE SW. POPS TRENDS WL BE THE MAIN FCST                
 CHALLENGE TNGT AND WL BASE THEM PRIMARILY ON LATEST RADAR/RUC TRENDS.          
 UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PASS NW OF AR SUN AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES                
 REGION SUN NGT AND MON. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER SYS WL ROTATE           
 ACRS NRN AR ON SUN. HAVE CONT WITH SLGT CHC POPS OVR NRN COUNTIES              
 SUN AFTN AS DAYTIME HEATING WL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO                
 PRODUCE SOME LGT RAIN.                                                         
 SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE WL LINGER OVR THE REGION SUN NGT AND MON...              
 RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL            
 WORK INTO THE FA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                        
 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL                
 TROF/CLOSED LOW...DEPENDS ON THE MODEL RUN...MOVES EAST FROM THE               
 DESERT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF                      
 COAST...AND MOVE NORTHEAST.                                                    
 HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST AS MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT           
 IN THE OVERALL PICTURE. HAVE PRECIP MOVING EAST BY FRIDAY                      
 MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING AFTER THAT.                               
 COLD AIR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE LEFT ALL PRECIP LIQUID.            
 TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58                                               
</pre> ar                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 250 PM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                            
 UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL SPIN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO              
 IOWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT FROM           
 THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH AN 8H JET OF 45KTS BY 12Z SUNDAY.                  
 PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST              
 TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5             
 INCHES UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE DECIDED TO                 
 NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS BEST AXIS OF                  
 INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA AT 12Z SUNDAY. THIS AXIS             
 DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY SO WILL HOLD ONTO THUNDER THEN. THE           
 RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS            
 DRY AIR BEGINS TO WRAP INTO THE REGION.                                        
 WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL           
 NOT DROP BELOW 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND WILL WARM INTO THE             
 60S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST           
 AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  --JA                                               
 .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...                                        
 SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT...                                                         
 EARLY SUN EVENING...CONSENSUS OF SREF/GFS/NAM/RUC HAVE SFC LOW OVER            
 WI/IA/IL BORDER REGION...WITH ASSOC DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE LOWER           
 OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD LARGELY END THE PRECIP THREAT BY                
 3Z/MON...HOWEVER A FEW -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT                
 HOURS WITH SATURATION CONFINED TO BELOW 5KFT.                                  
 SFC COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY...AND              
 WITH THIS ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP IS FORECAST. ACTUALLY MUCH OF THE             
 FORCING FOR LIFT IS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER TROPOSPHERE PER NAM Q-VECTOR           
 DIAGNOSTICS...ASSOC WITH SHARP UPPER TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE                 
 REGION. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LAPSE RATES FROM LATE MORNING            
 THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS MON...AND EVEN A LITTLE SB-CAPE (~100 J/KG AT           
 KLEX ~20Z/MON PER NAM). HOWEVER SATURATION NEVER REACHES INTO THE              
 CRITICAL -10 TO -20C LAYER...SO PRECIP AMTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT             
 SIDE. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SHOWERS MON...HIGHEST VALUES            
 IN THE NE 1/2 OF THE CWA.                                                      
 AROUND 0Z/TUE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL HAVE PASSED THE CWA...WITH             
 SFC HIGH PRES MOVING IN BEHIND. WITH THIS SAID...HAVE NOT BEEN TOO             
 AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING CLOUD COVER VALUES MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS NAM           
 BUFKIT DATA INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA             
 DURING THAT PERIOD. GFS SHOWS THIS AS WELL...BUT ONLY EXTENDS OVC              
 CONDITIONS UNTIL 12Z/TUE. UPPER RIDGE FCST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA               
 WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO QUIET/MOSTLY CLEAR WX CONDITIONS.                       
 REGARDING TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL SHOW A COOLING TREND FROM               
 SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUES LIKELY BEING THE                 
 COOLEST WITH THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA PER SREF AND POTENTIAL FOR             
 EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IF NAM VERIFIES. EVEN THEN READINGS ARE STILL            
 FCST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE 2ND DAY OF 2007.                      
 THURSDAY-SATURDAY...                                                           
 USED A BLEND OF 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF FOR THIS SECTION OF             
 THE LONG TERM. BOTH SHOW UPPER TROF LIFTING NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS             
 INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM 0Z/FRI THROUGH 0Z/SAT. SURGE OF WARM                 
 ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF               
 RAIN OVER THE DISTRICT LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE OVERALL               
 PATTERN AND LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE             
 SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH UPPER           
 WAVE PROGRESSION FRI-SAT...SUCH THAT PRECIP CHCS FRI NIGHT WOULD BE            
 MUCH LOWER IF IT VERIFIES. NCEP ENS MEAN IS SLOWER WITH STRONGER               
 DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE               
 ARE...DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC SO WILL LEAVE IN CHC POPS                
 FRI-FRI NIGHT.                                                                 
 ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP IS FCST FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH DECENT                 
 BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT PER            
 ENS MEAN. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT FEEL REASONABLE IN                    
 FOLLOWING HPC PRELIM GUIDANCE AND MENTIONING A LOW CHC FOR RAIN                
 SAT/06 JAN. OVERALL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE CLIMO DURING               
 THIS PERIOD.                                                                   
 CS                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 357 PM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                               
 ANOTHER VERY DIFFICULT CLOUD AND VISIBILITY FORECAST TONIGHT AND ONE           
 LOOK AT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE COMPLEXITY.  HI-RES 1KM              
 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW STRATUS DECK EXTENDING ACROSS THE TRI              
 CITIES AND THUMB EXTENDING ACROSS I69 TO JUST NORTH OF MTC AS OF               
 20Z.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM PLAINS SYSTEM WAS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL                
 CLOUD COVER... UNDER AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY... ACROSS THE REMAINDER            
 OF THE CWA.  AT THE SURFACE...1032MB HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS                  
 NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL OOZE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  HERE IS             
 WHERE IT GETS QUITE COMPLICATED WITH RESPECT TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG                 
 FORMATION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE CURRENT               
 CLOUD PATTERN WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING WITH AN               
 IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING SHAPE SOUTH OF I69.                           
 HOWEVER...RECENT RUC FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK            
 ACROSS IL/IN WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA TOWARD MIDNIGHT                  
 THEREFORE REDUCING THE POTENTIAL OF FOG FORMATION.  AT THIS                    
 TIME...WE FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DESPITE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD               
 COVER AND METAR REPORTS OF HAZE...THINK FOG WILL REDEVELOP THIS                
 EVENING AND WILL PLACE AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                  
 COUNTIES.  FURTHERMORE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING A BIT               
 MORE EAST TONIGHT...LAKE MOISTURE COMPONENT COULD ADD ADDITIONAL               
 MOISTURE TO COMPLICATE LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORMATION.  NEEDLESS TO               
 SAY...LATER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED AS WE MONITOR                 
 TRENDS CLOSELY.                                                                
 THEN THE RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  OVERALL MODELS AGREE WITH             
 SYNOPTIC SET UP BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING.  WITH INCREASING               
 DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE            
 GULF...FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE AFTERNOON             
 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.  EXACTLY WHERE THE OCCLUSION OCCURS WILL                   
 DICTATE JUST HOW WARM WE GET IN THE AFTERNOON AND GIVEN CURRENT                
 UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...THINK 50 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  IN                 
 ADDITION...CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH               
 DEEP THETA-E AIR ARRIVING AND THE APPROACH OF THE DRY SLOT LATE                
 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE               
 FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD           
 OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARD EVENING WITH IMPRESSIVE OMEGA AND PWATS IN            
 EXCESS OF 1 INCH (NOT TO MENTION 850MB DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 10C               
 ACROSS THE SOUTH!).                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE ONGOING              
 SUNDAY EVENING AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE FINISHES MOVING THROUGH SE                
 MICHIGAN. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, CONSIDER MODEL FORECASTS OF              
 850 MB DEW POINT AROUND 8C IN OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING (00Z MONDAY)             
 AVERAGE 1 DEGREE GREATER THAN THE HIGHEST MEASURED IN THE DTX UPPER            
 AIR CLIMATE DATABASE FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. IN OTHER WORDS,            
 THIS IS RECORD MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH            
 OF MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING OF THE LOW PRESSURE             
 SYSTEM, WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF              
 THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE OVERHEAD                 
 AND THE DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS                
 THIS OCCURS, EXPECT DRIZZLE AND FOG TO TAKE THE PLACE OF SHOWERS               
 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.                               
 COLDER AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUPPORT FROM SHORT WAVE            
 ENERGY TRAILING THE MAIN UPPER WAVE. THE NAM KEEPS A MORE DISCRETE             
 VERSION OF THE CURRENT NORTHERN PLAINS CIRCULATION IN THE MIX                  
 THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH IS OUTSIDE OF THE MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL                  
 SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ENERGY GETTING SHEARED APART DURING THIS                
 TIME. PREFER THE 12Z VERSION OF THE GFS IN THAT REGARD BUT WITH A              
 BIT MORE MOISTURE DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE                  
 REGION. SCATTERED POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS COVERS THIS NICELY WITH                
 TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEFORE THE FRONT                
 MOVES PAST.                                                                    
 LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL COUNTER SURFACE COLD ADVECTION MONDAY                
 NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH               
 PRESSURE WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING TUESDAY BUT              
 MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL FOR NO BETTER THAN PARTLY                
 SUNNY CONDITIONS.                                                              
 THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF              
 OF THE COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN               
 FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL               
 COMBINE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SW SURFACE WIND, MOSTLY CLEAR SKY, AND              
 CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN                
 TRANSITION TOWARD DEEPER SW FLOW AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES BY               
 THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR              
 ON MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OR ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE                   
 NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.                                                      
 THE DEEPER SW FLOW WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF TOWARD            
 THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE AMOUNT DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF             
 THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW. IT IS ABOUT THIS TIME IN THE FORECAST           
 THAT MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME A FACTOR REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF              
 THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW. THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS LIKE THE BEST               
 SOLUTION CONSIDERING THE NEW ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING ALONG            
 THE WEST COAST AND GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT IN           
 THE 12Z NCEP ENSEMBLE FOR A SLOWER VERSION OF THE ECMWF HEADING INTO           
 NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1238 PM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                          
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 ANOTHER AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE AS CURRENT SKY CONDITIONS WILL             
 PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
 BASED ON BUFKIT PROFILES AND UPS TECHNIQUE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER                 
 NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION                
 THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND AS FLOW                    
 BECOMES MORE EASTERLY...MARINE COMPONENT SHOULD ALSO KICK IN                   
 AIDING IN THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL              
 TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING THEN A TEMPO GROUP LIFR               
 OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG JUST NORTH OF MBS               
 AND WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.  STORM SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL                
 TRACK TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT                    
 SUPPORT A PROB30 FOR RAIN STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...BGM                                                               
 LONG TERM....BT                                                                
 AVIATION...BGM                                                                 
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 1238 PM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 ANOTHER AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE AS CURRENT SKY CONDITIONS WILL             
 PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
 BASED ON BUFKIT PROFILES AND UPS TECHNIQUE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER                 
 NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION                
 THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND AS FLOW                    
 BECOMES MORE EASTERLY...MARINE COMPONENT SHOULD ALSO KICK IN                   
 AIDING IN THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL              
 TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING THEN A TEMPO GROUP LIFR               
 OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG JUST NORTH OF MBS               
 AND WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.  STORM SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL                
 TRACK TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT                    
 SUPPORT A PROB30 FOR RAIN STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1004 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                          
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SKIES CLEARED TOWARD SUNRISE AND THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ASPECT                
 RESULTED IN THE FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. WHEN MODIFYING THE                 
 SOUNDINGS FROM YESTERDAY UTILIZING THE UPS TECHNIQUE...IT DID SHOW             
 FOG BEING MORE WIDESPREAD THAN OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD HAVE                   
 SUGGESTED (MODELS HAD WAY TOO MUCH STRATUS). LATEST 1KM VISIBLE                
 IMAGERY AND METARS SHOW THE FOG DECK SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE EDGES             
 AND HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.                                       
 THE NEXT ISSUE IS THE BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI CITIES             
 AND THUMB. COMBINATION OF SHEARED OUT VORTMAX APPROACHING (AS SEEN             
 IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) AND DEPARTURE OF 100+KT JET TO OUR                    
 NORTHEAST HAS RESULTED IN A LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION AND THE                     
 TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 850-700MB. INCLUDED THE              
 CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THOSE NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING              
 AS THIS WAVE...PROGGED BY THE NAM12 AND RUC13...SHOULD QUICKLY                 
 TRACK EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS                
 INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                          
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 316 AM                                             
 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE            
 TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL               
 DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL             
 CLIMB INTO THE 40S TODAY WITH THE HELP OF SOME MINIMAL SUNSHINE.               
 LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THANKS TO A             
 CONTINUED CLEARING TREND. STILL...THESE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE            
 NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALL AND ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES             
 MADE TO THE GOING SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                         
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 IT`S GOING TO RAIN ON SUNDAY...THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHEN AS THE                
 UPPER LOW OVER EL PASO TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 00Z                          
 GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY CONVERGE ON THE             
 TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH              
 THE GFS STILL APPEARING TO BE A TOUCH FAST (3 HRS) BASED ON THE                
 CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO PROBLEMS IN THE QPF FIELDS. WILL             
 CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST BY LOWERING POPS FURTHER SUNDAY             
 MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO                 
 OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z MONDAY AS THE GOOD                    
 ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SETS IN.                                  
 WILL BE CARRYING CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY EVENING AS OCCLUSION/TROWAL           
 SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LOWERING POPS OVERNIGHT (40                
 SOUTH-60 NORTH) AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS IN. STILL LOTS OF LOW              
 LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ON MONDAY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED               
 LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE             
 THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY EVEN HAVE TO            
 BE INCREASED AS GOOD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD BE NEARBY.                    
 WITH THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BECOMING                
 ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION...ENOUGH COLD AIR EXPECTED TO BE               
 INFUSED TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT                
 BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.                                                     
 PREVIOUS MENTIONED MODELS...ALONG WITH 00Z EUROPEAN...ALL INDICATING           
 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                   
 TUESDAY...AND HAVE PULLED THE MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION AS LARGE            
 SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LINGERING INTO                     
 WEDNESDAY. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND           
 TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CONCERNED MOISTURE/LOW STRATUS WILL BE TRAPPED              
 UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND MAY NEED MORE CLOUDS FOR THE MID WEEK                 
 PERIOD. IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS...THE CURRENT FORECASTED MINS WILL            
 LIKELY BE TOO COLD.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...BGM                                                               
 LONG TERM....99                                                                
 AVIATION...BGM                                                                 
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 1237 PM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                    
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 UPPER LVL LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW ZIPPING THRU THE FCST AREA ATTM.                
 MAINLY LGT PCPN XPCTD FOR THE NEXT CPL OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH UCA IS              
 CRNTLY RPTG MOD SNOW. PCPN SHD BE MUCH LGTR TO THE SOUTH AWAY FROM             
 THE BEST UPPER LIFT. ALSO...CNTRL AND SRN STATIONS HAVE MRGNL                  
 TEMPS FOR SNOW. SO...XPCT LIFR CIGS AT UCA FOR SNOW...GNRLY MVFR               
 OR IFR AT TIMES ELSEWHERE AS THE WAVE GOES BY. MUCH DRIER AIR                  
 MOVES IN LTR THIS AFTN AND HOLDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THIS             
 WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALL STATIONS. SFC HIPRES OVHD                
 WILL ALLOW FOR LGT WINDS WITH VRBL DIRECTION AFT 00Z.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1004 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006/                                           
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO WITH H5 SHORT               
 WAVE BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE              
 JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. REMOVED CHC POPS FROM POCONOS BUT                 
 KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. ACROSS FAR NRN ZONES REMOVED               
 MENTION OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AS CAA BEHIND WAVE WILL KEEP PRECIP             
 ALL SNOW. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY, HERE. RRM                         
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 630 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
 S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ONTARIO THIS MORNING IS SPAWNING                
 SOME SHSN JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN                    
 CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST              
 SPREADING A DECENT AREA OF PVA/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE                    
 CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING. 00Z                    
 SOUNDING FROM KALB WAS NOT ENCOURAGING FOR SNOW AS IT FEATURED                 
 QUITE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE LLEVELS. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN                
 VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...SUGGESTING             
 THAT THE LOWER TROP IS SLOWLY MOISTENING /ALSO INDICATED IN                    
 RUC/NAM BUFKIT PROFILES/...ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTENING HAS NOT YET                
 TRANSLATED INTO ANYTHING AT THE SURFACE...WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN               
 BETWEEN 10-15F AT SYR/UCA WHERE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE ENSURING              
 A STEADY SUPPLY OF DRY AIR UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT SOME                   
 LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER ONEIDA                     
 COUNTY...AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT AS THE S/WV PASSES                      
 OVERHEAD. MODEL QPFS SUGGEST A COATING-2" ISN`T OUT OF THE                     
 QUESTION OVER ONEIDA COUNTY. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...OVER THE FINGER               
 LAKES...SUSQUEHANNA...AND CATSKILL AREAS...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW               
 SHOWERS WITH NO MORE THAN A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION...POTENTIALLY              
 MIXING WITH RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS RISE TOWARDS                
 40. UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS AS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN IN             
 PLACE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.                                                    
 TONIGHT...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND AS NVA/DRYING ALOFT TAKE OVER.               
 TRAJECTORIES DO CONTINUE TO BE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE                 
 NIGHT HOWEVER...SO EXPECT MCLOUDY SKIES TO SETTLE IN FROM SYR-UCA.             
 ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE                   
 MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD ENSURE LIGHT WINDS. UNDERCUT MOS                
 TEMPS SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OF THE SYR-UCA AREA.                                    
 SUNDAY SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR WHERE THEY HAVEN`T ALREADY WITH A                
 NICE DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD AND THEN BEGINS               
 TO PUSH EAST. T925 BETWEEN -4-0C WILL ALLOW HIGHS IN THE U30S/L40S             
 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.                                                           
 MODELS STILL VERY DIFFERENT IN THEIR TIMING WITH THE UPCOMING                  
 SYSTEM FOR NEW YEARS EVE AND DAY. THE NAM IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER               
 THAN THE GFS WITH THE GFS BRINGING PCP IN AS EARLY AS 00Z MON. THE             
 NAM HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE SREFS AND EVEN THE MREFS...WITH THE              
 ECMF/CMC BEING SOMEWHAT OF A GFS/NAM COMPROMISE. THE GFS EVOLUTION             
 AT 500 LOOKS A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS SO HAVE USED A GFS/NAM COMPROMISE             
 THAT LEANS MORE TO THE NAM THINKING. THIS WILL BRING IN CLOUDINESS             
 LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP ARRIVING ABOUT THE TIME 2007                 
 DOES.                                                                          
 THE BIG QUESTION AT THE ONSET OF PCP WILL BE PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT                
 WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO SNOW IS OUT OF THE QUESTION YET                 
 AGAIN. WET BULB TEMP PROFILES QUICKLY GO ABOVE FREEZING AT 1000MB              
 BUT REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR A TIME AT 925MB. ENVISION ALL AREAS              
 STARTING WITH A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...WITH A VERY QUICK                       
 CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN OVER THE FINGER LAKES...TWIN TIER REGION              
 AND WY VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE COOLER...AND               
 THE AREA WILL HAVE HAD MORE TIME TOO COOL RADIATIONALLY SUNDAY                 
 NIGHT...EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST LONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER               
 THE ELEVATED REGIONS OF THE CATSKILLS/POCONOS AND SUSQUEHANNA                  
 REGIONS. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY FLOW UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY WILL                 
 LIKELY PROLONG THE ZR AT PLACES LIKE UCA. SOME AREAS MAY STAY COLD             
 ENOUGH FOR ZR INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD                
 CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY BEFORE PCP ENDS. PCP AMOUNTS DON`T              
 LOOK INCREDIBLY IMPRESSIVE....SO ATTM WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE NO               
 MORE THAN AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT OVER THE FAVORED AREAS MENTIONED             
 ABOVE. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.             
 WITH THE MODELS STILL HANDLING THIS SYSTEM QUITE DIFFERENTLY...                
 STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE SITUATION.                                       
 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
 FCST AREA IN A NEAR FLAT ZONAL FLOW WITH ABV NRML HGTS. LTL TO                 
 TRIGGER ANY REAL WX. SOME LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT PCPN INTO TUE NGT               
 AS THE NW FLOW PETERS OUT. OTRW DRY AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SYSTEM                
 FRI. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS NOW HAS A DEEPENING CSTL LOW FOR FRI NGT              
 AND SAT...THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT             
 OVERALL THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...DGM                                                                 
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                            
 215 PM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                  
 TONIGHT: WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD            
 CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL/S GA AND SC            
 PUSHES NORTHWARD. SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH TRIES TO BUILD                    
 SOUTHWARD INTO NC LATE TONIGHT BUT IT`S QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE             
 LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HELD WELL UP TO OUR NORTH... YIELDING LITTLE           
 IMPACT FOR NC. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 290-295K INCREASES OVERNIGHT              
 BUT AN INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD           
 PRODUCE SPRINKLES AT MOST... SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS FOR TONIGHT WITH            
 JUST 10% POPS. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT OF 42-52 LOOK                     
 REASONABLE.                                                                    
 SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NM/TX              
 BORDER FINALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION               
 THROUGH THE PERIOD... WHILE WE`RE INITIALLY PROTECTED BY THE                   
 STILL-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GRADUALLY                  
 INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN NC... ALTHOUGH THE LIFT EARLY ON SHOULD BE            
 TEMPERED BY DIFFLUENT 850 MB FLOW. BY LATE SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL FLOW           
 OVER THE CAROLINAS FINALLY BECOMES CYCLONIC WITH INCREASING UPPER              
 DIVERGENCE AND RISING LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES OVER CENTRAL NC. WILL           
 GRADUALLY EXPAND POPS WEST TO EAST... UP TO CATEGORICAL WEST WITH              
 CHANCES EAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF            
 ARRIVAL/EXIT OF PRECIP... WITH THE GFS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER IN                 
 BRINGING RAIN IN AND ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER TO TAKE IT OUT. GIVEN THE            
 GFS`S SUPERIOR INITIALIZATION OF EXISTING PRECIP... A LEAN TOWARD              
 ITS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE                    
 PROPAGATING FAIRLY SLOWLY AND A PRECEDING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET               
 (RUC ANALYSIS OF 40+ KT AT 925 MB INTO SRN MS)... BELIEVE WE`LL SEE            
 DECENT STORM TOTAL QPF OF 1-2 INCHES... A REGIME WHICH IS SUPPORTED            
 BY NCSU RESEARCH RESULTS. HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST AND STRONGEST                   
 CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH HOLD            
 ZERO AND LOWER LIFTED INDICES OVER SC... AND WHILE THE 0-3 KM                  
 HELICITY IS IMPRESSIVE AT OVER 400 M2/S2 IN SPOTS... AS IS THE DEEP            
 LAYER SHEAR OF NEARLY 50 KT... THE INSTABILITY SIMPLY ISN`T THERE              
 WITH A DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE. SO WHILE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH             
 STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE... DON`T EXPECT MUCH THUNDER. EXPECT            
 CATEGORICAL POPS WEST WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...               
 INCREASING EAST TO CATEGORICAL BEFORE ENDING RAIN WEST TO EAST                 
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT...               
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL FORECAST             
 STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY 60-68... CLOSE           
 TO THE MEAN OF GUIDANCE... WITH THOUGHTS THAT VERY LITTLE COOL AIR             
 WILL WORK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY. -GIH/BSD                
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
 THE WARM SPELL CONTINUES AS THE MEAN RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST           
 HOLDS FIRM. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR DRY WITH THE MID            
 LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND SURFACE HIGH               
 PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THEN OVER THE STATE. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER             
 POST-FRONT BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS... THUS EXPECT                
 TEMPERATURES ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL. THEN... MODEL                  
 SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF TX               
 TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 06Z GFS              
 WAS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE 00Z RUN... BY 18-24 HRS... AND A              
 QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN STILL SHOWS A SLIGHT SLOWING FROM THE 06Z            
 RUN. THE GFS ALSO REMAINS QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM... KEEPING A           
 CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH             
 SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS FLATTER AND DAMPENS OUT THIS WAVE AS IT                 
 ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE... AND THIS SOLUTION MAKES               
 MUCH MORE SENSE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC               
 RIDGE AND THE PROJECTED CONTINUATION OF A POSITIVE NAO PATTERN INTO            
 THE 6-10 DAY TIME FRAME. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE           
 STARTING LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE AND THE              
 WARM FRONT HEADS TO OUR NORTH. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR             
 FRIDAY/SATURDAY GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CHANGES AND THE WIDE                
 SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL KEEP POPS AS CHANCES FOR              
 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... AND LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THEM ONCE           
 TIMING CAN BE BETTER PINNED DOWN. -GIH/BSD                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC  SEABOARD WILL KEEP A MOIST              
 EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST             
 CLOUD 4 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET WILL LOWER TO MVFR CEILINGS NEAR MIDNIGHT           
 AS DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL U.S. APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.             
 AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE              
 LEADING TO A LOWERING CLOUDS TO IFR AND VSBYS TO MVFR AS RAIN                  
 DEVELOPS OVER THE TAF AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. -RHJ                            
 &&                                                                             
 .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/BSD                                                     
 LONG TERM...HARTFIELDBSD                                                       
 AVIATION...RHJ                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                           
 354 PM CST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                    
 BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH ONGOING                          
 PCPN...HEADLINES AND TIMING OF DRY AIR PUSH INTO WEST.                         
 FLIP-FLOP TOOK PLACE IN MODEL SOLNS TODAY...WITH THE NAM FINALLY               
 GETTING A GRIP ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND HANDLING OF NORTHERN             
 STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE GFS PUSHED THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT             
 FURTHER EAST FASTER THAN NAM AND ENSEMBLE SOLNS. HAVE GONE MORE                
 WITH SLOWER NAM SOLN WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE                 
 SNOW THAN GFS IS FORECASTING ACROSS EAST. NAM AND GFS...ALONG WITH             
 RUC MODEL...ARE SHOWING IMPRESSIVE 7H AND 85H FRONTOGENESIS TAKING             
 PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE                
 EASTERN CWA..LEADING ANTICIPATED BANDING AND HEAVIER SNOW. BANDING             
 IS NOW EVIDENT ON KABR 88D WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2                    
 INCH/HOUR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEAVY DENDRITES                     
 CURRENTLY FALLING AT KABR. FURTHER EAST...OBS INDICATE SIMPLY RAIN             
 FALLING. WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM PUSHING SLOWLY EAST...ANTICIPATE               
 THAT INVERTED TROF WILL ALSO PUSH EAST...KICKING PCPN BACK OVER TO             
 FZRA THIS EVENING...THEN OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED             
 EASTERN CWA TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR COMBINATION OF FZRA AND                
 SNOWFALL. ACROSS FAR WESTERN CWA...THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED              
 AS SNOWFALL MAY END SOONER THAN I HAVE PUT IN GRIDS WITH DRY AIR               
 INTRUSION.                                                                     
 SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS               
 EAST. HAVE CONT WARNING UNTIL 00Z MONDAY FOR ERN CWA AS NAM SHOWS              
 7H WAA FORCING TAKING PLACE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME             
 CONCERN FOR WINDS INCREASING DURING DAY SUNDAY AS WELL...AND HAVE              
 INSERTED SOME BLSN WORDING FOR WRN CWA. MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR               
 REMAINDER OF CWA AS WELL. WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN OCCURRING...LITTLE              
 DIURNAL VARIATION EXPECTED IN TEMPS.                                           
 SNOWFALL SHOULD FINALLY EXIT SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC FORCING                
 EXITS REGION AND DRY AIR PUSHES FULLY THROUGH CWA.                             
 .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
 FOLLOWING THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT WAS THE            
 PREFERRED SOLUTION THIS GO ROUND IN HANDLING SPURIOUS UPPER                    
 CIRCULATION NOW MEANDERING OVER SWRN NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION IS            
 SLIPPING SEWD INTO IOWA AND SERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THEN. DRY                     
 CONDITIONS UNDER CLEARING SKIES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH              
 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CHANGE             
 MADE TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES THESE PERIODS AS INHERITED GRIDS WERE             
 ACCEPTABLE BASED OFF MODEL PROGS AND AREA COVERED BY 3 TO 12 INCHES            
 OF SNOW BY THEN.                                                               
 IN THE EXTENDED...INSERTED LOW POPS MENTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE                  
 PROGGED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FOR             
 ANOTHER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND           
 EVENING. THIS SECOND WAVE APPEARS ATTM TO HAVE A BETTER MID-LEVEL              
 BAROCLINIC ZONE/UPPER LEVEL JET TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE               
 PRECIPITATION FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SWRN CWFA. GENERALLY                   
 ACCEPTED AND FOLLOWED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND ISC                  
 COLLABORATION FOR MAX/MIN T GRIDS DAYS 4 THROUGH 7.                            
 .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON             
      FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-              
      SULLY-WALWORTH.                                                           
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY            
      FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.                                 
      WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BUFFALO-EDMUNDS-           
      FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON.                                                
      WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-DAY-           
      MARSHALL-SPINK.                                                           
 MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY            
      FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 HINTZ/DORN                                                                     
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                         
 1216 PM EST SAT DEC 30 2006                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 WILL BE SENDING A QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO REFLECT NORTHWARD ADVANCE                
 OF LOW CLOUDS INTO SW AND SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS APPEAR             
 ON TRACK SO FEW ADDED CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE                   
 SLOWLY WORKS EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER                 
 EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE                     
 EXCEPTION AROUND DAN WHERE OCNL MVFR LEVELS POSSIBLE. ONGOING                  
 ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO LOWER FURTHER FROM SW TO              
 NE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST REACHING MVFR BY MORNING. SOME -RA ALSO                 
 POSSIBLE ESPCLY BLF/DAN SUNDAY MORNING WHEN WILL INCLUDE MVFR                  
 VSBYS...OTRW MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY                   
 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 958 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN           
 LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF MISS               
 VALLEY AXIS OF SHRA. GIVEN DEGREE OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVERTOP LOW                 
 LEVEL INVERSION OFF 12Z RAOBS...APPEARS NORTHWARD                              
 EXTENT/ADVECTION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CLOUDS FROM NC THE MAIN                    
 CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC AND THE 12Z NAM SHOW THE                 
 MAJORITY OF SIG STRATO-CU ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE                
 LIFT/RH BETTER. FARTHER NORTH INTO VA/WVA FLOW TURNS MORE                      
 WESTERLY AND HEATING/MIXING LIKELY TO DETER MOISTURE A BIT.                    
 HOWEVER APPEARS BY LATE IN THE DAY THAT COMBO OF CI/SC WILL LIKELY             
 FILL IN ACROSS MOST OF THE SW HALF BUT STILL DRY. THUS PLAN TO GO              
 WITH MORE CLOUDY INTERVALS SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES AND PARTLY SUNNY              
 FAR WEST FOR CI...BUT MAINLY SUNNY IN WEDGE FROM BCB/ROA AND                   
 POINTS NE. THICKNESS VALUES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN GIVING             
 HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S. HOWEVER THINK MORE CLOUDS AND                 
 WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT ENOUGH TO STAY A BIT COOLER ESPCLY NW NC                
 IF CLOUDS FILL IN MORE.                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 619 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006/                                            
 AVIATION /11Z-06Z/...                                                          
 3000-5000 FOOT CEILINGS ARE SPREADING NORTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE              
 BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME                   
 SCATTERED AFTER 14Z. OVERNIGHT MORE CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE               
 SOUTH AGAIN BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.                   
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 144 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
 SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND              
 SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS OF                 
 VIRGINIA. BUFKIT FORECAST SHOW SATURATED LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT 500               
 FEET THICK AND THAT WITH MIXING THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE STARTING           
 AROUND 14Z. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR ABOVE NORMAL                   
 TEMPERATURES TODAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE AS IT HAS BEEN             
 PERFORMING WELL THE PAST FEW DAYS.                                             
 THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT AND BELOW 850 MB ARE MORE                 
 SUBSTANTIAL ON THE MODELS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND                  
 FOOTHILLS TONIGHT THAT EVEN WITH THE CURRENT STRATUS. EXPECT MORE              
 LOW CLOUDS IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. MODELS             
 HOLD HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST           
 AREA TODAY THEN SPREAD THE MOISTURE NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN             
 BY 03Z MONDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE 1000-300 MB COMPLETELY COVERS THE              
 FORECAST AREA. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INFLOW FROM THE GULF                 
 SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE OF RAIN EVEN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY                
 WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY.                                                        
 THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LIFTS INTO THE              
 MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT           
 LAKES ON MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL FROM               
 SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE             
 OF RAIN IN ALL AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
 850 WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                  
 SUNDAY...BUT WITH SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE...ONLY FAR WESTERN COUNTIES           
 MAY TAP SOME OF THAT WARMER AIR. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONGER             
 850 MB JET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH 55 TO 60 KNOTS OUT OF THE              
 SOUTH OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR               
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DEEP IN THE WEDGE FOR SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP                
 RIDGES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WARMER.                        
 MODELS BRING IN ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 700 MB IN THE                   
 NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE           
 MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE WESTERN                 
 UPSLOPE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SECOND             
 SURGE OF COLD AIR COMING IN AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE           
 AREA ON MONDAY. WESTERN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WINDS IS NOT IDEAL            
 BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS SINCE PLENTY OF LOW           
 LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AROUND 12Z MONDAY LAYER AT COLD              
 AIR GETS DEEP ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.              
 THE UPPER LOW ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP NOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA GETS               
 ABSORBED BY THE LARGE SOUTHWEST LOW AND EVENTUALLY PROVIDES SOME               
 DYNAMICS AND LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE                 
 COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLAN ON ADDING SNOW SHOWERS FOR           
 HIGH ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AND                    
 INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT.               
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                    
 NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                       
 AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...                                                          
 MOSTLY CLEAR ACRS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH STRATUS               
 DECK AT AROUND 3500 FEET WORKING UP INTO THE NC COUNTIES AND THIS              
 MVFR DECK MAY WORK INTO DAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEAK               
 BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL VA AS SFC HIGH OVER NEW                 
 ENGLAND RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NOT MUCH EFFECT WITH                 
 THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND FEW HIGH CLOUDS.             
 LARGER CLOUD MASS DEEVLOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY                    
 OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS/VSBY CONDITIONS                
 TO BE MOSTLY VFR INTO TOMORROW EVENING.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VA...NONE.                                                                     
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 WV...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SHORT TERM...JH                                                                
 AVIATION...JH                                                                  
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