FXUS04 KWBC 281004 PAA
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
503 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2003
 
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 29/1200 UTC THRU JAN 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
DAY 1...
THERE WAS LITTLE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE 0000 UTC AND 0600 UTC MODEL
RUNS.  THE ETA AND GFS MASS FIELD FCSTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE NATION THRU DAY1 WITH ANY DIFFERENCES BEING IN THE
NOISE LEVEL.   MINOR CHANGES..MOSTLY DUE TO CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...WERE MADE FM THE PRELIM TO THE FINAL DAY1.
......MIDWEST ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE OH VLY...
MOISTURE AVBLTY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE HERE AS A STG LLVL SLY
WIND COMPONENT ADVECTS HIER MSTR INTO AN E/W ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE.   A VERY WEAK WAA IS EXPECTED OVR THE OH VLY
EARLY IN THE PD.   THE BULK OF THE PCPN DEPICTED HOWEVER WILL BE
TRIGGERED BY THE DYNAMIC LIFT ASOCTD WITH THE SHRTWV FCST TO BE
PRESSING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. BY THIS EVNG.  IN GNRL LGT
PCPN AMTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.   THE 0000 UTC GFS WAS
HEAVIER THAN THE ETA WITH AMTS OVER THE MIDWEST THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PD AND BELIEVED IT WAS OVERDONE GIVEN THE FCSTS OF
AVBL PW AND RECENT WET BIAS ON ITS PART.   MORE TROUBLING WAS
THAT THE 0000 UTC GFS PCPN AXIS IN GNRL WAS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
ETAS AND THE ETA HAD TRENDED A BIT NWD FM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  
FORTUNATELY...THE 0600 MODEL RUNS WHETHER RIGHT OR WRONG
BASICALLY CONVERGED ON BOTH AMTS AND THE AXIS OF PCPN.   A
COMPROMISE BTWN THE MINOR REMAINING DIFFERENCES IS PROBABLY
THE BEST BET.
...LWR MS/TN/AND SRN OH VLY...
DIFFICULTY HERE IS TRYING TO GAUGE WHEN AND WHERE ENUF MSTR
WILL BE AVBL TO SATURATE THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV ADVANCING EWD FM THE CNTRL U.S. BY THIS
EVNG.   BOTH THE ETA AND GFS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE BUT
BOTH BASICALLY AGREE THAT SHWRS WILL DVLP ACROSS THIS REGION AS
HGT FALLS GRADUALLY SQUEEZE MSTR OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  
ATTEMPTED A COMPROMISE BTWN THE TWO QPF SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE
LACK OF SGFNT MODEL DIFFERENCES.
...NRN PLAINS...
OVRRNG OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SWD ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL TRIGGER VERY LGT PCPN TOTALS.   THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON DETAILS HERE.
DAY 2...
SE...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED ACRS THE REGION WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR MSTR FEEDING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS SRN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY SHEARS EWD ACRS THE REGION.  OVERALL.. THE
ETA AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH THE
PCPN AND BASICALLY JUST WENT WITH COMPROMISE SOLN.
PAC NW...
GOOD AGREEMENT HERE ALSO BETWEEN THE ETA AND THE GFS AS THEY
BRING A FAIRLY POTENT S/WV OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE NW. 
SUPPORTED BY GOOD ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION... THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE MDT TO HVY RNFL ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES OF WA
AND OR AND INTO NRN CA.  THE ETA IS WETTER HERE THAN THE GFS AND
GIVEN THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS WITH PW'S OVER AN INCH... CAN SEE NO
REASON TO NOT GO WITH THE HEAVIER SOLN.
DAY3....
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SGFNT CHANGE FROM DAY2 INTO DAY3 AS
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONTINUES TO BRING
PLENTY OF MSTR INTO THE REGION. ETA AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON DAY3 THAN THEY WERE ON DAY2 WITH BOTH
SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS OF LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING PW'S IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH INTO THE COASTAL RANGES OF WA AND OR AND ALSO
FARTHER INLAND INTO THE CASCADES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
EWD WILL ALSO BRING LT TO MDT RAINS.. WITH SNOW AT THE HIER
ELEVS..
THRU THE NRN INTRMTN REGION AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.  FARTHER
EAST... MSTR WILL STILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS INTO THE WEAKENING
BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS THE SE.
KORTY/ROBSON
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov
24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 530219 532212 532204 532194 529184 525173 522166 517161
514161 
      513166 511172 510179 513190 516198 518206 520211 523216
529220 
      530219 
 0.01 521265 518256 515248 512238 508231 504225 500221 496219
493223 
      493229 495240 491237 489235 486235 484236 481236 480233
476230 
      472232 458234 456237 457241 465244 469246 473249 479255
483261 
      488269 495282 498287 501289 503292 508292 512290 
 0.01 465735 464730 459731 453733 445738 439743 436751 434760
434768 
      436772 440771 444764 449759 456751 460745 464737 465735 
 0.01 477788 477784 475783 472786 469795 463814 461824 459834
459845 
      458857 457864 457868 459882 462892 464899 466901 471902
476900 
      477895 479888 480878 481872 481864 478838 476826 475812
477791 
      477788 
 0.01 501063 501057 500052 497045 491036 484026 481021 478012
475994 
      470973 464958 461954 457953 454951 452930 448913 445900
443891 
      439882 433866 429846 426811 426783 424768 421752 419746
415740 
      411733 406726 402721 399721 396723 394729 393735 392751
392762 
      392775 392780 390787 389794 387802 383808 376812 364814
360815 
      357818 354824 350829 348834 347839 348845 346857 344868
340881 
      336892 331905 325918 323922 318926 309931 303938 296945
289955 
      287959 289964 293964 305959 310958 316953 321952 326952
332952 
      338951 344949 348946 354939 369917 378906 383903 387904
390910 
      392916 397919 398922 398951 399961 401972 403978 406981
410982 
      417982 420988 423005 425026 427031 431035 440040 442046
442055 
      442066 443072 444076 451085 453094 456101 458106 461110
466115 
      467116 469119 468122 467127 467133 466151 467154 470155
472152 
      471147 474141 479140 487139 485133 480127 474121 473116
473110 
      476098 475077 476068 478067 486068 491069 497070 501063 
 0.01 453845 453845 450846 449847 447848 445852 444854 443856
443858 
      444860 446861 447861 448860 449858 451855 452854 453850
453847 
      453845 
 0.01 427060 424053 418042 404049 398047 393046 389049 389054
391057 
      390060 389064 388067 388071 389076 393085 391098 393108
391113 
      391117 410114 411107 409102 400102 397096 398089 400083
406079 
      410076 415074 417072 418069 418063 425064 427060 
 0.25 507283 508278 509274 510269 510267 509264 508260 505259
502258 
      499257 497256 495254 494253 493253 492257 493260 493263
495267 
      495268 497272 497274 499277 501280 501281 504283 507283
507283 
 0.25 413817 412811 410806 406805 403810 400817 397828 397837
401851 
      406876 410887 414897 415909 415920 416927 418930 422927
424922 
      426913 424901 423877 421866 419851 417839 414825 413817 
 0.25 383857 384850 383846 381843 375846 368855 363862 359871
356881 
      353890 353900 356900 359898 366890 372884 378874 381866
383857  
 
24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 510679 506668 502659 498654 494646 495640 493636 489627
488625 
      485624 483622 478619 472617 466616 460617 454621 451621
447624 
      438631 431638 429641 428645 426649 425653 424660 424666
423674 
      415679 412679 411676 411673 408669 404667 397671 390675
383680 
      376687 369693 366697 362700 353711 339732 330744 327749
325754 
      320765 315779 312795 309807 305831 301858 291916 288928
285937 
      283943 281950 278962 279967 278973 281980 283981 287981
293979 
      301978 306980 315987 320992 325994 331992 335988 338975
339968 
      339958 339937 340929 343923 350915 360903 367893 372883
379871 
      385858 387851 389844 393830 399812 403806 406805 411810
414819 
      417824 420826 421831 416844 412860 411870 413875 417876
422873 
      430869 436870 445869 455872 459877 461886 461903 465911
470912 
      473908 477902 482896 487891 491883 491870 489859 487852
484846 
      479838 471823 463810 460803 461797 464790 469782 479771
485763 
      489756 493745 495743 497737 501729 504721 508703 510690
510679 
 0.01 540202 540197 538191 534182 524164 518155 512147 503138
495132 
      482123 480118 478113 479103 479091 477075 470046 457005
456999 
      454991 451986 449981 439963 433960 425959 420960 415963
409969 
      408975 408982 412992 417999 419003 422007 427016 431021
440040 
      444048 448058 450064 451072 453081 451089 448090 442091
434090 
      429088 425085 423086 421089 421095 419099 415100 407096
396113 
      399121 407124 412125 415127 415131 414134 411137 407139
400138 
      394137 391141 390147 392152 395154 400155 403159 407162
408164 
      408170 407177 409182 412184 413192 410198 407202 403203
398203 
      395203 391207 391211 393214 396218 397221 396224 389225
385227 
      384230 384234 385242 390249 397255 416268 423272 427279
432286 
      435286 437280 439274 442267 445265 451267 461270 472276
479280 
      488286 507299 525251 524251 523246 522245 520241 519239
517237 
      515233 515233 513228 513227 513223 513222 516223 517224
519226 
      522227 525227 526227 528227 531226 533225 534223 535221
538216 
      538215 
 0.01 419076 420071 419065 415059 410056 404053 400052 398053
391057 
      384058 378063 372061 366061 365066 368068 370071 371075
373082 
      379086 380094 384089 387090 391087 392083 395079 398081
404078 
      409081 415079 419076 
 0.01 264800 264800 261799 258800 255801 253802 250803 248805
247807 
      246808 245811 245812 245814 244817 247819 249816 249815
250812 
      250812 252808 253808 254806 257805 259804 262803 264801
264800 
 0.25 521269 520260 517253 511236 505220 502212 498206 491204
483203 
      471206 464206 456205 444209 431211 425213 422217 419221
417221 
      413218 410218 409221 405229 397238 397242 401245 406248
419256 
      425261 428263 432261 440255 447253 455253 462256 469259
477264 
      482268 493278 501284 506288 512286 516281 
 0.25 528208 530202 529197 525189 517172 513166 509159 497148
490144 
      484142 478137 474135 469134 464130 460128 456127 445139
437139 
      433145 430153 426159 422165 420170 421176 426180 428178
430174 
      434168 437166 442169 445176 445179 444182 442188 443192
449196 
      452197 454197 458189 463183 466175 474173 478175 483178
493188 
      504199 517205 525209 528208 
 0.25 448113 447109 447109 444105 443105 441102 438104 438105
435107 
      433108 432109 430112 431116 432117 435118 437119 440118
443117 
      444117 446116 448113 
 0.25 378747 376739 374736 369733 365732 362733 355738 350744
346754 
      342764 339775 341786 344796 345807 343827 332824 325849
323859 
      321870 319883 316896 313906 308916 306921 307925 307929
306939 
      306943 309942 313938 317934 330915 335906 339896 344885
352875 
      359867 363861 366858 372860 376856 380843 382831 384817
385811 
      382802 381793 381785 383768 383764 381760 379757 378753
378747 
 0.50 515262 514254 511246 505230 502223 499217 494212 486208
479207 
      473209 468210 458211 449213 440214 434216 430217 424220
423224 
      421229 419230 414230 411229 409231 407237 407240 408244
414248 
      420252 425256 428256 431254 437250 447247 454246 462247
469249 
      476253 482258 489265 497275 501279 505280 508279 508275
505259 
      507259 513265 515262 
 0.50 487170 488166 487164 484160 479156 473155 470153 468148
465146 
      462146 460148 461152 462157 465161 469165 472166 475165
478164 
      481166 486170 487170 
 0.50 367758 367754 364752 362755 361757 360758 359762 359763
358766 
      358769 358770 357774 359777 360776 360776 362772 362772
363767 
      364767 365763 365762 366758 367758 
 0.50 366823 365818 363816 358819 354825 350832 348837 346845
346853 
      346856 348855 354850 357845 361838 364831 366824 366823 
 0.50 343854 339848 336845 333845 330851 327858 325872 322886
319900 
      315914 314920 316928 320924 324918 329907 335894 340879
343864 
      342857 343854 
 1.00 501266 499262 498260 496257 495254 494253 492248 492248
489246 
      488247 489249 490252 491254 492258 493259 495263 495263
498266 
      501266 
 1.00 481240 479236 477234 476233 474233 473236 472237 473237
475241 
      478242 481240 
 1.00 471219 470216 467217 465217 465221 466222 466222 469220
471219 
 1.00 458219 455218 451219 442219 433222 429223 429229 429232
425235 
      416235 413238 415242 418244 422248 426250 429248 435242
433237 
      433233 435232 443227 451223 454223 458219 
 1.00 334874 334871 334867 332865 331868 330870 330872 329876
328878 
      326883 325892 326896 329895 330889 333879 334876 334874 
 1.50 427243 427242 424240 422239 419239 416240 418241 421243
424244 
      427244 427243  
 
24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 521270 523260 526254 527248 525239 523232 531224 533218
532209 
      529188 528179 526170 523163 518158 509149 487130 483127
479125 
      475124 463122 462104 458101 453096 449093 446093 438093
432092 
      428090 425091 422096 424100 421099 415101 412100 410098
407097 
      404098 395106 391111 393116 402124 411132 419133 421136
419139 
      412152 412157 410157 407158 405159 409171 407176 407183
412187 
      414190 415193 413202 415208 411211 407214 407221 408229
405233 
      403236 403240 406244 411248 419252 430260 435263 443266
457271 
      483279 496286 501289 504292 508293 513291 518278 
 0.01 515834 514828 512823 507819 500808 494805 489804 483803
477804 
      474808 473812 471819 468825 464831 452855 443869 437881
428891 
      418898 413902 405906 401909 395912 389916 383919 374927
370932 
      366938 364944 362951 363955 365959 369964 378969 384969
390974 
      389986 391995 394001 398005 401007 405007 410007 416006
430001 
      441996 453990 464981 472973 477968 483966 493971 501972
510969 
      516964 519959 522951 524942 526925 526913 525906 524900
520895 
      515893 510893 507889 508882 509866 513847 515834 
 0.01 387726 385720 381717 373718 364720 358723 350727 346729
341733 
      334738 330744 324761 323769 322778 325783 325787 321795
314809 
      302838 300844 299853 301858 299865 295882 286893 287913
284928 
      283934 284943 282950 279958 273972 270977 266984 256996
253002 
      252010 254012 258013 268012 274009 280004 285998 290991
297979 
      304965 307959 309951 311941 312932 312923 313914 317907
321902 
      331889 336883 340876 345870 349862 352854 354847 355839
355834 
      354828 353817 353812 355808 365796 370788 375781 382767
386755 
      387752 386744 38