AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
642 PM MST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.640 PM UPDATE...A BAND OF STRONG SNOWFALL OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON              
OVER GRAND JUNCTION. THIS PRODUCED OVER 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT 1+              
INCH/HOUR RATES. 00Z GJT SOUNDING SHOWS DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE              
RATE FROM 780 TO 400MB. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ENDED THIS AFTERNOON                 
AND LIKELY THE LEFT EXIT QUADRANT OF THE JET HELPED PRODUCE THESE               
BANDS. BANDED SNOWS ARE GETTING QUITE ACTIVE. AT 620 HEAVY SNOWFALL             
LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE GRAND MESA AT COUNTY LINE...AND                       
CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL MARCH EAST DOWN THE I-70 LIKELY PRODUCING                 
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE GFS SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS BEST AND                    
CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVY PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR                 
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE 18Z WRF AND LATEST RUC SHOW ONLY LIGHT                
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING. BASED ON WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE            
UPGRADE OF ZONE 6 AND 7...GRAND JUNCTION AND RIFLE AREAS...TO                   
WARNINGS THIS EVENING. STORM TOTALS OF OVER 6 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE              
THERE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...                                            
A DEEP COLD TROUGH CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON STATE AND EXTENDING TO              
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHIFTS INLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING            
A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS            
DEVELOPED...TYPICALLY FAVORED FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND OTHER              
SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.  BUT A STRONG JET ALOFT AND UPPER                 
LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS STRENGTHENED UPWARDS MOTION AND MOISTENED THE              
AIR MASS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED THE LOWER               
LAYERS TO BECOME SATURATED FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOME WIND SHELTERED            
VALLEYS.  THE STRONGEST UPWARDS FORCING WILL BE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE            
SURFACE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN UTAH AND TRAILING              
BACK TO ELY NEVADA.  GUSTY WINDS HAVE FORMED ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF             
THE GRAND MESA (NORTH FACING SLOPE) AND THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AS              
THE AIR MASS IS STILL STABLE IN THE LOWER LAYERS.  MOST VALLEY AREAS            
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...BUT MONTROSE HAS WARMED TO THE LOWER 40S DUE            
TO GUSTY WINDS.  THIS WILL CHANGE AS STATIC STABILITY LOWERS AS THE             
COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER AND REACHED NORTHEAST UTAH LATE TONIGHT.  THE            
AIR MASS WILL BE PRIMED AND MOISTENED AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ARRIVES            
AND THE WILL RECEIVE THE BEST SNOWFALL RATES...IN ADDITION TO THE               
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.  THE HEAVIEST MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE              
OVER THE SOUTH FACING SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC            
FLOW AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER.                                             
FOR THE NRN VALLEYS...SOUTHWEST FLOW TYPICALLY NOT FAVORABLE...BUT              
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE WARM MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN OVERRIDING               
THE COLD DOME HAS HELPED PRODUCE STEADY SNOW OVER THE UINTA BASIN               
WHERE VERNAL HAS RECEIVED 4 INCHES SO FAR.  UPGRADED THE ERN UINTA              
BASIN AND THE LOWER YAMPA RIVER VALLEY TO A WARNING...OTHERWISE                 
CURRENT HEADLINES APPEAR ON TRACK.  ALTHOUGH DID BOOST SNOW AMOUNTS             
FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO BY AN EXTRA 12 INCHES.                                   
COLD FRONT REACHES THE I70 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AND             
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AROUND NOON.  BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SNOW WILL              
TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST VALLEY                       
LOCATIONS...BUT OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL REMAIN STEADY ON WINDWARD                  
SLOPE.  THE INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASING AND THE SURFACE WINDS OVER             
RIDGE TOPS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL DIMINISH.                                   
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                  
..THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS TO PASS CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY..           
TUESDAY NIGHT: TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST WITH SNOWFALL DIMINISHING              
FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY NEAR THE              
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL-BELOW NORMAL                
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
WEDNESDAY-CHRISTMAS: WARM ADVECTION SW FLOW BRINGS MAINLY LIGHT                 
SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VALLEYS. W-E ORIENTED 115KT JET                
BECOMES MORE SW-NE ORIENTED ON CHRISTMAS PRODUCING DIFLUENCE ALOFT              
NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF CHRISTMAS SNOWFALL                 
THERE. ALSO THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NE UTAH CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON              
FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SNOWFALL FOR VERNAL TO RANGELY AND PERHAPS             
CRAIG. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE G40-50MPH AS THE FRONT             
APPROACHES ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WIND COULD MIX DOWN INTO SELECTED             
NORTH-FACING VALLEYS.                                                           
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT: A STRONG STAND-UP COLD FRONT SWEEPS                
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 125KT JET SUPPORT                 
ALOFT. IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...MTN TOP TEMPERATURES DROP FROM -5C            
PRE-FRONTAL TO -16C OR SO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD VERY                    
EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY GET                
WARNING OR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL...WITH THE MTNS LOOKING AT 1-             
2 FEET OF NEW ON AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON NW-FACING            
SLOPES. MOST SNOWFALL WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VERY COLD               
TEMPERATURES AGAIN BLANKETING THE REGION.                                       
SATURDAY-MONDAY: FINALLY A BREAK IN THE STORMS...TIMED PERFECTLY SO             
FOLKS CAN TRAVEL HOME AFTER THE HOLIDAYS. FLOW BACKS AROUND TO A DRY            
SW BY SUNDAY BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. LIGHT                  
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING            
THE NEXT STORM FOR NEW YEAR`S EVE. HAPPY NEW YEAR!                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.                      
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH PERIODS OF                       
MVFR. SNOWS ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LIFR                    
CONDITIONS ONLY IMPROVING TO IFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOCAL                      
CONVECTIVE HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL LIFR                    
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM                     
WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR                   
          THE WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ZONES                                
          3/4/9/10/12/13/17/18/19.                                              
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY FOR             
          THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...ZONES 21/22/23.                             
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT                     
          TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE UPPER GUNNISON RIVER BASIN AND                  
          THE CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN...ZONES 8/14.                        
      WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH NOON TUESDAY FOR THE LOWER YAMPA             
          RIVER BASIN...ZONE 1                                                  
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT                    
          FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND THE DEBEQUE TO SILT                     
          CORRIDOR...ZONES 2/5/7.                                               
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH                  
          MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE GRAND VALLEY...THE CENTRAL             
          GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN AND THE PARADOX                  
          VALLEY...ZONES 6/11/20.                                               
.UT...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR                   
           THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...ZONE 28.                            
      WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH NOON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN                 
           UINTA BASIN...ZONE 24.                                               
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE                      
           EASTERN TAVAPUTS PLATEAU...ZONE 25.                                  
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TUESDAY FOR                          
           SOUTHEAST UTAH CANYON COUNTRY...ZONES 22/27/29.                      
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH                   
           TUESDAY NIGHT...ZONE 23.                                             
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM.....PF                                                               
LONG TERM......JOE                                                              
AVIATION.......JOE                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
815 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...THIS EVENING`S CURRENT WATER VAPOR/RUC H4 COMPOSITE                   
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE DAKOTAS 24 HRS               
AGO HAS MOVED TO NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH               
WAS POISED TO DROP SEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SRN CANADA. THE             
00Z TAE SOUNDING REVEALED DRYING IN THE SURFACE TO 800 MB LAYER WITH            
NWLY FLOW. WINDS BACK TO WLY WITH A NEAR SATURATED PROFILE BETWEEN              
700 AND 750 MB. THE LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE               
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH USHERING THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS OVER            
CENTRAL FL. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT HAS                 
MAINTAINED N-NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT THIS EVENING. BANDS OF MID/HIGH               
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM W TO E FROM THE GULF COAST TO                
THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST. DEW POINTS WERE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES LOWER               
THAN GUIDANCE AT 00Z...WITH TEMPS RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE. MAIN CONCERN            
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PROSPECTS FOR A LIGHT FREEZE. IT DEFINITELY                 
LOOKS LIKE AN ADVECTION FREEZE VERSUS RADIATION FREEZE LATER TONIGHT.           
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER CENTRAL MS/AL/GA...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN              
INTO THE 30S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. EXPECT THIS AIR              
MASS TO CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH PARTIAL             
CLEARING. FREEZING TEMP DURATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6                        
HRS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN ZONES. DUE TO THE WINDS IN              
THE 5-10 MPH RANGE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS...FROST SHOULD NOT BE A              
CONCERN. WILL UPDATE THE AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE                  
EVENING PERIOD...TWEAK WINDS...AND ADD WIND CHILL WORDING TO                    
GA/AL/INLAND PANHANDLE ZONES WHERE INDICES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER               
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT RESULTING            
IN SUSTAINED NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS HAVE               
RESPONDED AS WELL WITH BUOYS REPORTING 6-9 FT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL               
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA UNTIL             
AT LEAST MIDDAY MONDAY. GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE                    
TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SLIDES QUICKLY TO THE EAST...WINDS            
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS AND PERSIST THROUGH MID             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A               
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL GIVE WAY              
TO A CIRRUS DECK OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT              
OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KTS RETURNING BY AROUND 14Z.               
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS.                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG               
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASES BEGINNING TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME                    
ONSHORE...AND THERE WILL BE NO ADDITIONAL RED FLAG CONCERNS FOR THE             
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...FORECAST POINTS ALONG THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA            
AND OCHLOCKNEE RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD                 
STAGES. TODAY`S RAINFALL...WHICH AVERAGED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN               
INCH...SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE AREA RIVERS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  30 51 29 64 49/ 0 0 0 10 10                                        
PANAMA CITY  33 52 37 64 56/ 0 0 0 10 10                                        
DOTHAN       29 47 32 61 51/ 0 0 0 10 20                                        
ALBANY       28 48 32 61 47/ 0 0 0 10 20                                        
VALDOSTA     32 48 32 62 46/ 0 0 0 10 10                                        
CROSS CITY   34 55 29 70 51/ 0 0 0 10 10                                        
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY ALL ZONES.                  
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY ALL ZONES.                  
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM EST /7 PM               
     CST/ MONDAY ALL ZONES.                                                     
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...WOOL                                                                 
REST OF DISCUSSION...JAMSKI                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1236 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC              
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL MODIFY              
AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC                   
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE              
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY                
AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
MADE ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                  
INCREASED INITIAL CLOUD COVERAGE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO                
LINGERING JET-INDUCED CIRRUS. GENERALLY EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR            
SKIES BY MORNING. A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE                 
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA               
MOVES CLOSER. EXPECT TEMPS WILL REACH FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS                  
MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST ON A BRISK W/NW WIND.                    
LOWERED OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY AS MANY AREAS ACROSS THE                   
REGION HAVE ALREADY SEEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS. BRISK                      
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES                 
IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT.                                                        
LAKE WINDS...REPORTS FROM PINEVILLE AND SHORT STAY SUGGEST WINDS                
OVER LAKE MOULTRIE ARE SOLIDLY WITHIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.            
IN FACT...A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IS IN ORDER BASED ON                    
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING MODEL DATA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...                         
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MON...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S              
IN MOST PLACES. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON THE                  
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND WE MAY NOT HAVE GONE LOW ENOUGH IF THE NAM              
/NGM-BASED GUIDANCE IS CORRECT WHICH SHOWS HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER              
40S AT CHARLESTON.                                                              
LAKE WINDS...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE MON MORNING                 
AND THINK THAT WINDS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NOON.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIP OFF THE EAST COAST                    
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS                 
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH COLD                     
ADVECTION WILL HAVE WEAKENED...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN                 
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT                
WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING INTO THE                   
LOWER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST.                           
SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE TUESDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES            
TO MODERATE. A SURFACE WEDGE COULD LINGER WELL INLAND AS THE HIGH               
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...CREATING A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST            
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM              
THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FAR SOUTHEAST             
GEORGIA ZONES.                                                                  
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND WEDGE WILL SHIFT               
NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE                 
COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FROM THIS FEATURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED               
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.                                                
A RATHER RAPID WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY               
FLOW RESUMES AND ADVECTS WARM MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH              
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL                           
NORMALS...REACHING THE LOWER 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL                      
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AT THE SAME TIME...EVENTUALLY              
BLOCKING THE PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.                
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST OUTSIDE OF THE                       
FORECAST AREA...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE               
FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY.                  
HAVE MAINTAINED NO MORE THAN 30 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS TIME                   
PERIOD...AS BEST LIFT/OMEGA VALUES REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST.                     
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS                 
POINT HAVE FOLLOWED THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION BY INDICATING A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES ONLY THROUGH           
FRIDAY MORNING. WITH STRONG RIDGING STILL OVER THE AREA AND THE                 
BEST FORCING MOVING NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...HAVE KEPT MOST OF               
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RAIN FREE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND                 
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH                        
SATURDAY...MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY PERSISTENT PARTLY TO MOSTLY                    
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITHIN ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.                    
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.                       
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT                      
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL PICKING UP ON A THICK BAND OF CIRRUS ALONG              
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW              
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF              
PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH                   
MIDDAY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN BY EARLY                     
AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST.                                
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST                
OF THIS WEEK...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A                 
STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE               
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS TO A GALE WARNING AS 21Z RUC BOUNDARY                   
LAYER WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30-35 KT FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH                
SUNRISE MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE MOST INTENSE COLD AIR                        
ADVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION WATER TEMPERATURE DATA INDICATE SEA                  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION              
OF AMZ374...MAINLY FROM 40-60NM OUT. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST                 
MIXING AND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR GALES WILL BE. RUC                     
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40 KT AT TIMES AND                  
CONSIDERING 41004 HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30                
KT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IT                   
SEEMS THE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN                
UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING. COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION                
CENTER...THANKS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK ON TARGET FOR THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.                                                        
MONDAY...EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND IN MARINE CONDITIONS MON AS                  
COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE                   
AREA. THINK THE ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING                 
CHS HARBOR...WILL BE DROPPED BY NOON WHEREAS THE ADVISORY WILL                  
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS.                              
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT            
OFF THE EAST COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS MID WEEK. A WEAK                  
COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE MONDAY              
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND              
TO THE SOUTHEAST.                                                               
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT                
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SMALL                   
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER SEAS COULD REACH 6 FT TUESDAY                 
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE OUTER WATERS.                                    
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO THE NORTH AND RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT                
FRIDAY...WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.                  
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE PATTERN                     
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ045.                        
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ330-350-352-          
     354.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1037 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS ARCTIC                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL MODIFY              
AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC                   
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE              
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY                
AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
MADE ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                  
INCREASED INITIAL CLOUD COVERAGE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO                
LINGERING JET-INDUCED CIRRUS. GENERALLY EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR            
SKIES BY MORNING. A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE                 
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA               
MOVES CLOSER. EXPECT TEMPS WILL REACH FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS                  
MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST ON A BRISK W/NW WIND.                    
LOWERED OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY AS MANY AREAS ACROSS THE                   
REGION HAVE ALREADY SEEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS. BRISK                      
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES                 
IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT.                                                        
LAKE WINDS...REPORTS FROM PINEVILLE AND SHORT STAY SUGGEST WINDS                
OVER LAKE MOULTRIE ARE SOLIDLY WITHIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.            
IN FACT...A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IS IN ORDER BASED ON                    
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING MODEL DATA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                        
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MON...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S              
IN MOST PLACES. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON THE                  
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND WE MAY NOT HAVE GONE LOW ENOUGH IF THE NAM              
/NGM-BASED GUIDANCE IS CORRECT WHICH SHOWS HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER              
40S AT CHARLESTON.                                                              
LAKE WINDS...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE MON MORNING                 
AND THINK THAT WINDS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NOON.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIP OFF THE EAST COAST                    
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS                 
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH COLD                     
ADVECTION WILL HAVE WEAKENED...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN                 
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT                
WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING INTO THE                   
LOWER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST.                           
SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE TUESDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES            
TO MODERATE. A SURFACE WEDGE COULD LINGER WELL INLAND AS THE HIGH               
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...CREATING A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST            
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM              
THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FAR SOUTHEAST             
GEORGIA ZONES.                                                                  
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND WEDGE WILL SHIFT               
NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE                 
COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FROM THIS FEATURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED               
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.                                                
A RATHER RAPID WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY               
FLOW RESUMES AND ADVECTS WARM MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH              
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL                           
NORMALS...REACHING THE LOWER 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL                      
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AT THE SAME TIME...EVENTUALLY              
BLOCKING THE PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.                
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST OUTSIDE OF THE                       
FORECAST AREA...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE               
FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY.                  
HAVE MAINTAINED NO MORE THAN 30 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS TIME                   
PERIOD...AS BEST LIFT/OMEGA VALUES REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST.                     
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS                 
POINT HAVE FOLLOWED THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION BY INDICATING A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES ONLY THROUGH           
FRIDAY MORNING. WITH STRONG RIDGING STILL OVER THE AREA AND THE                 
BEST FORCING MOVING NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...HAVE KEPT MOST OF               
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RAIN FREE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND                 
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH                        
SATURDAY...MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY PERSISTENT PARTLY TO MOSTLY                    
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITHIN ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.                    
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.                       
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT                      
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
THE FRONT IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS WITH                  
GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIND GUSTS MAY                
SUBSIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BY MID-                
LATE EVENING AS THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED                 
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH. A THICK BAND OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL                  
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT VFR              
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF               
THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS FINALLY DIMINISHING BY MID-LATE                       
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION                          
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST                
OF THIS WEEK...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A                 
STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE               
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS TO A GALE WARNING AS 21Z RUC BOUNDARY                   
LAYER WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30-35 KT FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH                
SUNRISE MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE MOST INTENSE COLD AIR                        
ADVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION WATER TEMPERATURE DATA INDICATE SEA                  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION              
OF AMZ374...MAINLY FROM 40-60NM OUT. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST                 
MIXING AND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR GALES WILL BE. RUC                     
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40 KT AT TIMES AND                  
CONSIDERING 41004 HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30                
KT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IT                   
SEEMS THE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN                
UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING. COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION                
CENTER...THANKS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK ON TARGET FOR THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.                                                        
MONDAY...EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND IN MARINE CONDITIONS MON AS                  
COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE                   
AREA. THINK THE ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING                 
CHS HARBOR...WILL BE DROPPED BY NOON WHEREAS THE ADVISORY WILL                  
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS.                              
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT            
OFF THE EAST COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS MID WEEK. A WEAK                  
COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE MONDAY              
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND              
TO THE SOUTHEAST.                                                               
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT                
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SMALL                   
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER SEAS COULD REACH 6 FT TUESDAY                 
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE OUTER WATERS.                                    
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO THE NORTH AND RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT                
FRIDAY...WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.                  
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE PATTERN                     
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
BLOW OUT CONDITIONS ARE IN PROGRESS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA              
AND UPPER GEORGIA COASTS WHERE TIDE LEVELS ARE RUNNING A SOLID 1                
TO 1.5 FT BELOW PREDICTED LEVELS. AT 10 PM...THE TIDE IN THE                    
CHARLESTON HARBOR HAD DROPPED TO -0.72 FT MLLW AND -0.38 FT MLLW                
AT FT. PULASKI. LOW TIDE IS OCCURRING NOW SO THE TIDE LEVELS                    
SHOULD ONLY DROP A LITTLE MORE BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW RECOVERY AS              
MID-TIDE APPROACHES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ045.                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330-350-352-        
     354.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JP/ST                                                                           
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID                                           
837 PM MST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...WINDS REFUSING TO WIND DOWN ALONG I-15 CORRIDOR PER SFC               
OBS. CHATS WITH LOCAL MEDIA INDICATE NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS                  
SUPPORTED WITH AREA WEBCAMS AND FRESH ROAD CLOSURES FROM TRANS                  
DEPT. WILL EXTEND ADVISORY AGAIN FOR ID ZONES 20/21 AND WORD                    
STRONGLY. WILL ALSO KEEP WARNING IN PLACE FOR ZONE 19 BUT ALLOW                 
REST OF ZONES TO EXPIRE. DMH                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM MST MON DEC 22 2008/                         
UPDATE...WILL EXTEND HEADLINES EXPIRING AT 02Z TO 04Z. PER                      
MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEBCAMS...GUSTY WINDS STILL                       
PRODUCING ENOUGH BLOWING SNOW TO PRODUCE INCREASED TRAVEL HAZARDS               
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION                 
CONVERGENCE ZONE BAND WELL DEVELOPED IN UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND                   
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST PER RADAR. EXPECT WINDS TO TAKE A              
FEW MORE HOURS TO DECREASE. LATEST RUC SHOWS 30AGL WINDS AT                     
GREATER THAN 30KTS THROUGH 04Z THEN DECREASING RAPIDLY THEREAFTER.              
CONVERGENCE BAND ALWAYS THE WILDCARD BUT EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE               
ALONG WITH WINDS NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO               
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER BAND. DMH                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM MST MON DEC 22 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...OUR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING                   
FROM NEAR DRIGGS INTO WYOMING AT THE MOMENT. SURFACE WINDS IN THE               
UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN SHOULD DECREASE WITH DECREASING                     
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM MST. WILL EXTEND THE WINTER                
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TO GIVE TIME FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING               
SNOW TO WIND DOWN. THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT PASS THE ISLAND              
PARK AREA UNTIL ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM                   
WARNING FOR THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH                 
THAT TIME PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THE REST OF TONIGHT                   
WHICH SHOULD FAVOR SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES              
AND THE BENCH AREAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER VALLEY. LAPSE                 
RATES REMAIN MODERATELY STEEP AS WELL...ENOUGH TO KEEP AN CHANCE                
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS              
CLOUD SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION IN OREGON THAT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS               
NOT EXPECTED BUT AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE AROUND POMERELL. OUR                 
NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.              
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DIG THE JET STREAM WINDS SHARPLY TOWARDS                 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO BUT AMOUNTS              
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN THE CURRENT STORM. WILL LET THE NEXT                   
SHIFT LOOK CLOSER. RS                                                           
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                      
BOTH EUROPEAN MODEL AND GFS MODEL INDICATING A SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL            
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND.  EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE THE COLDEST            
DAY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THE             
LAST IN A SERIOUS OF MAJOR UPPER SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST              
IDAHO.  WITH THIS PATTERN IT SHOULD REMAIN WET IN THE MOUNTAINS AND             
KEPT HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE                    
MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.                  
EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY GETTING TO NEAR                 
SEASONAL AVERAGES OR EVEN ABOVE BY SUNDAY.  GENERALLY RAISED                    
TEMPERATURES IN GRIDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY NEED TO RAISE EVEN               
MORE.                                                                           
GK                                                                              
AVIATION...SNOW CONTINUED ALL DAY IN THE POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS               
CORRIDOR WITH IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH WINDS INCREASED TO THE             
20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO              
FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES REMAIN HIGH            
AND FEEL MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS             
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW WEAK SHORT            
WAVE MOVING THROUGH AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES EAST               
TUESDAY MORNING.                                                                
GK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ020-                
021.                                                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ019.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID                                           
643 PM MST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...WILL EXTEND HEADLINES EXPIRING AT 02Z TO 04Z. PER                     
MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEBCAMS...GUSTY WINDS STILL                       
PRODUCING ENOUGH BLOWING SNOW TO PRODUCE INCREASED TRAVEL HAZARDS               
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION                 
CONVERGENCE ZONE BAND WELL DEVELOPED IN UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND                   
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST PER RADAR. EXPECT WINDS TO TAKE A              
FEW MORE HOURS TO DECREASE. LATEST RUC SHOWS 30AGL WINDS AT                     
GREATER THAN 30KTS THROUGH 04Z THEN DECREASING RAPIDLY THEREAFTER.              
CONVERGENCE BAND ALWAYS THE WILDCARD BUT EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE               
ALONG WITH WINDS NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO               
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER BAND. DMH                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM MST MON DEC 22 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...OUR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING                   
FROM NEAR DRIGGS INTO WYOMING AT THE MOMENT. SURFACE WINDS IN THE               
UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN SHOULD DECREASE WITH DECREASING                     
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM MST. WILL EXTEND THE WINTER                
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TO GIVE TIME FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING               
SNOW TO WIND DOWN. THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT PASS THE ISLAND              
PARK AREA UNTIL ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM                   
WARNING FOR THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH                 
THAT TIME PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THE REST OF TONIGHT                   
WHICH SHOULD FAVOR SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES              
AND THE BENCH AREAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER VALLEY. LAPSE                 
RATES REMAIN MODERATELY STEEP AS WELL...ENOUGH TO KEEP AN CHANCE                
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS              
CLOUD SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION IN OREGON THAT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS               
NOT EXPECTED BUT AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE AROUND POMERELL. OUR                 
NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.              
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DIG THE JET STREAM WINDS SHARPLY TOWARDS                 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO BUT AMOUNTS              
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN THE CURRENT STORM. WILL LET THE NEXT                   
SHIFT LOOK CLOSER. RS                                                           
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                      
BOTH EUROPEAN MODEL AND GFS MODEL INDICATING A SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL            
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND.  EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE THE COLDEST            
DAY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THE             
LAST IN A SERIOUS OF MAJOR UPPER SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST              
IDAHO.  WITH THIS PATTERN IT SHOULD REMAIN WET IN THE MOUNTAINS AND             
KEPT HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE                    
MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.                  
EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY GETTING TO NEAR                 
SEASONAL AVERAGES OR EVEN ABOVE BY SUNDAY.  GENERALLY RAISED                    
TEMPERATURES IN GRIDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY NEED TO RAISE EVEN               
MORE.                                                                           
GK                                                                              
AVIATION...SNOW CONTINUED ALL DAY IN THE POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS               
CORRIDOR WITH IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH WINDS INCREASED TO THE             
20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO              
FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES REMAIN HIGH            
AND FEEL MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS             
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW WEAK SHORT            
WAVE MOVING THROUGH AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES EAST               
TUESDAY MORNING.                                                                
GK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-                 
020-021.                                                                        
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ022>025.                
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ019.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
930 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT TEMPS SOME GIVEN LATEST ADVECTION               
PATTERN AND CONSIDERING UPSTREAM CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.                   
EXPECT LOWS OVER FAR LOWER MICH TO BE STEADY NEAR ZERO WITH                     
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE ZERO OVER MOST OF NORTHERN INDIANA                 
AND NW OHIO.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA                         
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...BUT                
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL                 
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF SBN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE                    
RAPIDLY TUESDAY AND WILL OVERRUN THE RETREATING COLD AIRMASS.                   
GIVEN THE INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS...GAVE SOME                
LAG TIME FOR LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX            
AT SBN AND FWA WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.            
INCLUDED AN ICE PELLET MIX AT SBN AND A FZRA MIX AT FWA. THE                    
NAM/WRF WAS MORE ROBUST WITH THE ADVECTION...BUT CHANGEOVER TIMES               
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSUE WILL BE SLIDING OVER FORECAST AREA THIS                   
EVENING BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER FROZEN SNOW/SLEET              
PACK AND FRESH FOOT OF SNOW IN FAR NORTH ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND             
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL YEILD OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING                 
CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. AS USUAL...MODELS                 
THERMAL FIELDS AND MOS CANNOT MODEL THIS SMALL SCALE COOLING AND ARE            
MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPS. RUC HAS BEST HANDLE ON SITUATION ONCE                 
AGAIN BUT IT MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO COLD. RUC13 DROPS MOST AREAS OF                
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA TO BELOW NEGATIVE 10 BY 05Z. WHILE THIS IS             
POSSIBLE IN LOCAL AREAS...NOT READY TO GO THAT LOW AREA WIDE GIVEN              
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...FEEL CONFIDENT IN FAST DROP THIS              
EVENING TO BELOW ZERO GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN SINGLE DIGITS OR            
LOW TEENS AND DEW POINTS IN SINGLE DIGITS WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.              
WILL BE OUT OF COLLABORATION MOST AREAS BUT JUST CANNOT FIND REASON             
TO NOT DROP TEMPS GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING AND MODEL WARM BIAS LAST            
TWO DAYS WITH THIS ARCTIC AIR. MOS LOWS TONIGHT IN SEVERAL AREAS ARE            
WARMER THAN 20Z OBSERVATIONS. WILL HAVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW AND EVENING             
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                                                     
RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT WITH                   
INCREASING CLOUDS. MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES ON TUESDAY THOUGH               
12Z MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW               
DEVELOPING WEST BY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES ON MODELS APPEAR                 
SIMILAR INITIALLY BUT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO            
TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM QUICKER TO WARM LOWER LEVELS WHILE GFS SLOWER.               
BASICALLY CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS TREND BUT BROUGHT CHANGEOVER TO               
RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN A LITTLE QUICKER AND ALSO MOVED MIXED PCPN                 
FARTHER NORTH. STILL FEEL MODELS WILL WAVER A LITTLE MORE WITH NEXT             
RUN GIVEN TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES SO WILL KEEP SPIRIT OF FORECAST AND             
MIXED PCPN INTACT AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW WATCH HEADLINE TO                    
CONTINUE AND INCREASE MENTION OF MIXED PCPN NORTH. MODELS BEGINNNIG             
TO CONVERGE ON WARMING WEDNESDAY ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT IN FAR              
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AGAIN TRENDED GRIDS IN THAT DIRECTION.                     
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                 
LESS COMPLICATED EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS ON WEEKEND STORM.              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WANING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE                
MAINLY OVER BERRIEN COUNTY AND SCT SHSN/FLURRIES NORTH COUNTIES                 
THROUGH THE DAY.  SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SHOULD END EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE REGION UNDER SFC RIDGING FOR CHRISTMAS              
DAY.                                                                            
WEEKEND EVENT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AS WESTERN TROF LIFTS NE INTO                
THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES OFF BECOMING NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED               
WITH SFC LOW THROUGH QUEBEC BY SUNDAY.  AS STRONG WAA GETS UNDERWAY             
AHEAD OF SFC TROF AREA OF ASCENT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA                
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SFC FRONT ON SATURDAY.   USED COMPROMISE BETWEEN             
GEFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING AND ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STRONGLY                    
SUGGESTIVE OF AN ALL RAIN EVENT HAVE KEPT RA/SN MENTION AT ONSET                
BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TAKES SHAPE WHICH IS LIKELY                     
OVERDONE.   KEPT TEMPS MORE MODERATE BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO AND                  
SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION MANIFEST AS SEEN WOULD EXPECT A NEEDED                    
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD.  VERY EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT DYNAMICS AS               
CURRENTLY SHOWN ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 150KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX             
AND ROBUST 80KT LL JET ASSISTING WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING/MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT IN WARM SECTOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS                   
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT IN FOLLOWUP MODEL CYCLES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     MORNING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                        
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.                                                    
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                            
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                            
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                              
UPDATE...SKIPPER                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
812 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA                         
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...BUT                
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL                 
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF SBN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE                    
RAPIDLY TUESDAY AND WILL OVERRUN THE RETREATING COLD AIRMASS.                   
GIVEN THE INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS...GAVE SOME                
LAG TIME FOR LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX            
AT SBN AND FWA WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.            
INCLUDED AN ICE PELLET MIX AT SBN AND A FZRA MIX AT FWA. THE                    
NAM/WRF WAS MORE ROBUST WITH THE ADVECTION...BUT CHANGEOVER TIMES               
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSUE WILL BE SLIDING OVER FORECAST AREA THIS                   
EVENING BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER FROZEN SNOW/SLEET              
PACK AND FRESH FOOT OF SNOW IN FAR NORTH ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND             
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL YEILD OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING                 
CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. AS USUAL...MODELS                 
THERMAL FIELDS AND MOS CANNOT MODEL THIS SMALL SCALE COOLING AND ARE            
MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPS. RUC HAS BEST HANDLE ON SITUATION ONCE                 
AGAIN BUT IT MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO COLD. RUC13 DROPS MOST AREAS OF                
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA TO BELOW NEGATIVE 10 BY 05Z. WHILE THIS IS             
POSSIBLE IN LOCAL AREAS...NOT READY TO GO THAT LOW AREA WIDE GIVEN              
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...FEEL CONFIDENT IN FAST DROP THIS              
EVENING TO BELOW ZERO GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN SINGLE DIGITS OR            
LOW TEENS AND DEW POINTS IN SINGLE DIGITS WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.              
WILL BE OUT OF COLLABORATION MOST AREAS BUT JUST CANNOT FIND REASON             
TO NOT DROP TEMPS GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING AND MODEL WARM BIAS LAST            
TWO DAYS WITH THIS ARCTIC AIR. MOS LOWS TONIGHT IN SEVERAL AREAS ARE            
WARMER THAN 20Z OBSERVATIONS. WILL HAVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW AND EVENING             
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                                                     
RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT WITH                   
INCREASING CLOUDS. MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES ON TUESDAY THOUGH               
12Z MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW               
DEVELOPING WEST BY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES ON MODELS APPEAR                 
SIMILAR INITIALLY BUT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO            
TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM QUICKER TO WARM LOWER LEVELS WHILE GFS SLOWER.               
BASICALLY CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS TREND BUT BROUGHT CHANGEOVER TO               
RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN A LITTLE QUICKER AND ALSO MOVED MIXED PCPN                 
FARTHER NORTH. STILL FEEL MODELS WILL WAVER A LITTLE MORE WITH NEXT             
RUN GIVEN TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES SO WILL KEEP SPIRIT OF FORECAST AND             
MIXED PCPN INTACT AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW WATCH HEADLINE TO                    
CONTINUE AND INCREASE MENTION OF MIXED PCPN NORTH. MODELS BEGINNNIG             
TO CONVERGE ON WARMING WEDNESDAY ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT IN FAR              
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AGAIN TRENDED GRIDS IN THAT DIRECTION.                     
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                 
LESS COMPLICATED EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS ON WEEKEND STORM.              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WANING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE                
MAINLY OVER BERRIEN COUNTY AND SCT SHSN/FLURRIES NORTH COUNTIES                 
THROUGH THE DAY.  SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SHOULD END EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE REGION UNDER SFC RIDGING FOR CHRISTMAS              
DAY.                                                                            
WEEKEND EVENT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AS WESTERN TROF LIFTS NE INTO                
THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES OFF BECOMING NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED               
WITH SFC LOW THROUGH QUEBEC BY SUNDAY.  AS STRONG WAA GETS UNDERWAY             
AHEAD OF SFC TROF AREA OF ASCENT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA                
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SFC FRONT ON SATURDAY.   USED COMPROMISE BETWEEN             
GEFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING AND ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STRONGLY                    
SUGGESTIVE OF AN ALL RAIN EVENT HAVE KEPT RA/SN MENTION AT ONSET                
BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TAKES SHAPE WHICH IS LIKELY                     
OVERDONE.   KEPT TEMPS MORE MODERATE BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO AND                  
SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION MANIFEST AS SEEN WOULD EXPECT A NEEDED                    
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD.  VERY EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT DYNAMICS AS               
CURRENTLY SHOWN ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 150KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX             
AND ROBUST 80KT LL JET ASSISTING WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING/MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT IN WARM SECTOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS                   
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT IN FOLLOWUP MODEL CYCLES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     MORNING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                        
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.                                                    
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                            
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                            
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
337 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS                                                            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR SC DECK HAVE SHIFTED NE            
OF TAF SITES AS LL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK WITH SHORTWAVE                        
RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH               
FWA AND SBN...WITH THESE CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO                   
TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER ARCTIC DOME WILL                
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.               
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR -SN AND MVFR CIGS/VIS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES                
AFTER 12Z TUE...WITH BETTER CHANCE AT SBN. WILL LEAVE -SN/MVFR                  
MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW WITH MUCH OF THE MORNING LIKELY                     
INVOLVING SATURATION OF THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH DRY/SHALLOW ARCTIC             
AIRMASS IN PLACE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSUE WILL BE SLIDING OVER FORECAST AREA THIS                   
EVENING BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER FROZEN SNOW/SLEET              
PACK AND FRESH FOOT OF SNOW IN FAR NORTH ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND             
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL YEILD OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING                 
CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. AS USUAL...MODELS                 
THERMAL FIELDS AND MOS CANNOT MODEL THIS SMALL SCALE COOLING AND ARE            
MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPS. RUC HAS BEST HANDLE ON SITUATION ONCE                 
AGAIN BUT IT MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO COLD. RUC13 DROPS MOST AREAS OF                
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA TO BELOW NEGATIVE 10 BY 05Z. WHILE THIS IS             
POSSIBLE IN LOCAL AREAS...NOT READY TO GO THAT LOW AREA WIDE GIVEN              
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...FEEL CONFIDENT IN FAST DROP THIS              
EVENING TO BELOW ZERO GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN SINGLE DIGITS OR            
LOW TEENS AND DEW POINTS IN SINGLE DIGITS WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.              
WILL BE OUT OF COLLABORATION MOST AREAS BUT JUST CANNOT FIND REASON             
TO NOT DROP TEMPS GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING AND MODEL WARM BIAS LAST            
TWO DAYS WITH THIS ARCTIC AIR. MOS LOWS TONIGHT IN SEVERAL AREAS ARE            
WARMER THAN 20Z OBSERVATIONS. WILL HAVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW AND EVENING             
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                                                     
RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT WITH                   
INCREASING CLOUDS. MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES ON TUESDAY THOUGH               
12Z MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW               
DEVELOPING WEST BY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES ON MODELS APPEAR                 
SIMILAR INITIALLY BUT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO            
TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM QUICKER TO WARM LOWER LEVELS WHILE GFS SLOWER.               
BASICALLY CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS TREND BUT BROUGHT CHANGEOVER TO               
RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN A LITTLE QUICKER AND ALSO MOVED MIXED PCPN                 
FARTHER NORTH. STILL FEEL MODELS WILL WAVER A LITTLE MORE WITH NEXT             
RUN GIVEN TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES SO WILL KEEP SPIRIT OF FORECAST AND             
MIXED PCPN INTACT AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW WATCH HEADLINE TO                    
CONTINUE AND INCREASE MENTION OF MIXED PCPN NORTH. MODELS BEGINNNIG             
TO CONVERGE ON WARMING WEDNESDAY ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT IN FAR              
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AGAIN TRENDED GRIDS IN THAT DIRECTION.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                
LESS COMPLICATED EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS ON WEEKEND STORM.              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WANING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE                
MAINLY OVER BERRIEN COUNTY AND SCT SHSN/FLURRIES NORTH COUNTIES                 
THROUGH THE DAY.  SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SHOULD END EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE REGION UNDER SFC RIDGING FOR CHRISTMAS              
DAY.                                                                            
WEEKEND EVENT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AS WESTERN TROF LIFTS NE INTO                
THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES OFF BECOMING NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED               
WITH SFC LOW THROUGH QUEBEC BY SUNDAY.  AS STRONG WAA GETS UNDERWAY             
AHEAD OF SFC TROF AREA OF ASCENT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA                
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SFC FRONT ON SATURDAY.   USED COMPROMISE BETWEEN             
GEFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING AND ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STRONGLY                    
SUGGESTIVE OF AN ALL RAIN EVENT HAVE KEPT RA/SN MENTION AT ONSET                
BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TAKES SHAPE WHICH IS LIKELY                     
OVERDONE.   KEPT TEMPS MORE MODERATE BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO AND                  
SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION MANIFEST AS SEEN WOULD EXPECT A NEEDED                    
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD.  VERY EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT DYNAMICS AS               
CURRENTLY SHOWN ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 150KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX             
AND ROBUST 80KT LL JET ASSISTING WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING/MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT IN WARM SECTOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS                   
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT IN FOLLOWUP MODEL CYCLES.                                    
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     MORNING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                        
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.                                                    
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                            
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                            
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL                                                           
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1241 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                     
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE                  
PERIOD WITH A WANING TREND AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE               
REGION. LOOK FOR AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MI AND EXTREME                    
NORTHERN IN THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS                        
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN                  
PROBLEMATIC THROUGH MORNING WITH INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF BLSN                
DECREASING AS WIND GUSTS WANE. SCT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS                
MI AND FAR NORTHERN IN WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. OTHERWISE...VFR                  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH ISOLATED BLSN                    
REDUCING VIS DOWN TO 5SM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE WW ADV OVER PROTONS OF THE NORTH FA...WHERE               
LIGHT SNOWS AND INTENSITY/FREQUENCY OF BLSN HAVE DIMINISHED.                    
ISOLATED AREAS OF BLSN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS AT                 
TIMES...WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY                 
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH MORNING ALTHOUGH                   
REMAIN RATHER BRISK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
..DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY WINTER CONDITIONS CONTINUE...                
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH KGRR AND THEIR DISCUSSIONS WITH MICHIGAN               
STATE POLICE...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO             
A BLIZZARD WARNING. CONDITIONS BEING MET ALONG MAJOR ROADS WITH                 
HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATES BEING CLOSED DUE TO ZERO VISIBILITIES AND              
HIGH WINDS. KBEH OBSERVATION CERTAINLY CLOSE OR MEETING CRITERIA AT             
TIMES SO HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH KGRR.                                 
ARCTIC COLD AIR NOW IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS                  
AROUND ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR STRATOCU FINALLY DEVELOPING                
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS               
HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN BERRIEN BUT AS EXPECTED HAVE BEEN ON LIGHT                 
SIDE. STRONG GRADIENT FLOW AND DIURNAL MIXING WITH SUN HAS LED TO               
WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES AND              
RECENT REPORT OF I94 ACCIDENT AND ROAD CLOSURE IN NEAR WHITEOUT                 
CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES.                                            
BULK OF COLD AIR TO PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS            
PROGGED TO BE NEAR A STAGGERING NEGATIVE 28C. RATHER UNUSUAL SETUP              
AS THIS COLD CORE PASSES OVER AREA THIS EVENING AND TEMPS BEGIN TO              
WARM WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF MAIN UPPER              
LOW TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. NAM 2M SURFACE TEMPS               
AND MANY OF THE WRF RUNS NOT HANDLING SURFACE TEMPS WELL AT ALL AND             
TOO WARM THIS AFTERNOON. RUC DOING BEST JOB AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED              
WITH BLEND OF CURRENT COLD GRIDS THROUGH END OF RUC CYCLE. PROBLEM              
IS POTENTIAL WARMING OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LAKE PLUME                  
INCREASING. WILL TREND TOWARD STEADYING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT                  
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT PLUME AND RISING TEMPERATURES WITHIN MODIFIED            
PLUME OFF OF LAKE.                                                              
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT...POOR DGZ REGION EARLY THIS EVENING              
BEGINS TO CLIMB AND BECOME LOCATED WITHIN MOIST LAYER AND MAXIMUM               
OMEGA OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS 925-700MB LAYER BEGINS TO WARM.            
DELTA T VALUES REMAIN IN LOWER 20S AND WINDS BEGIN TO DROP TO A MORE            
FAVORABLE SPEED WITH LONGER FETCH OVER LAKE. KSBN BUFKIT SOUNDING               
STILL SHOWS INVERSION HANGING ON BUT KAZO AND KGRR PROFILES MUCH                
MORE FAVORABLE. NAM WRF 4KM SHOWING LAKE EFFECT IMPROVING THROUGH               
THE NIGHT WITH INDICATIONS OF A COUPLE DOMINATE BANDS...THE SECOND              
BEING OVER OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA INTO BRANCH AND HILLSDALE                
COUNTIES. THIS SECOND BAND WILL BE INTERESTING AND IF IT INDEED                 
DEVELOPS WILL NEED TO INCREASE AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS FROM CURRENT              
RANGE. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL FOCUS ON BETTER CHANCE AREA OF IMPACT             
IN CURRENT WARNING AREA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS HIGHER THAN                    
PREFERRED TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCH SNOW             
RANGE BUT STILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF IDEAL CONDITIONS             
CAN SET UP AND PERSIST...MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF MICHIGAN COUNTIES.            
FLOW BEGINS TO BACK MONDAY BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH FLOW TURNING             
MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY MORNING AND                    
TRANSITION TO CHANCE POPS BY AFTERNOON BEFORE LAKE EFFECT ENDS.                 
MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND COULD HELP SET STAGE               
FOR NEXT PCPN EVENT COMING IN FOR TUESDAY. AS WE SAW THIS PAST                  
THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF ICE STORM...SKIES CLEARED                  
BRIEFLY IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH NEARBY.                
TEMPS DROPPED WELL BELOW GUIDANCE EARLY BEFORE RECOVERING DURING                
EVENT. SIMILAR SET UP APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES                    
CLEARING AND WINDS LIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH WARM             
AIR ADVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOWS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE OVER                
LOCKED SNOW PACK THAT IS FRESH IN AREAS AND FROZEN SOLID IN OTHERS.             
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT NEAR ZERO SOUTHWEST AND BELOW ZERO                     
NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWING RISING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.                
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM TUESDAY            
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS A POTENT SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE                    
REGION.  MODEL CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THIS TIME FRAME AND LOW                
BEYOND IT AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES.          
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY LEADS TO SFC LOW EJECTING IN SW FLOW AS            
WESTERN CONUS TROF FLATTENS AND EJECTS UPR LEVEL ENERGY ALONG MID               
LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK OVER INDIANA WHICH               
BRINGS INEVITABLE PTYPE CONCERNS.  ESSENTIALLY A ONE TWO PUNCH WITH             
WAA PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SFC LOW ITSELF EARLY                   
WEDNESDAY.  INITIAL TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TO BREAK OUT             
IN WAA REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING LOW.  GOMEX IS WIDE OPEN BY MIDDAY             
TUESDAY AND THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SETTING THE              
STAGE FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ESP ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF FORECAST               
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE SFC FEATURE               
ADVANCES BRINGING IN THE SECOND ACT AS WARM AIR RAPIDLY ADVANCES                
AHEAD OF LOW WITH 60+ KT FLOW AT H85 STREAMING WARM MOIST AIR                   
THROUGH LOW LEVELS INTO THE CWA. AS USUAL MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT               
WITH AMOUNT OF WARMING AND EFFECTS ON THERMAL PROFILE/PTYPE.  HAVE              
BASICALLY FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A BIT OF              
FURTHER SOUTH..COLDER SREF AND AWAY FROM THE WARM BIASED ECMWF.  ABV            
FZ H85 TEMPS MIGRATE INTO NORTH CWA WHILE SFC TEMPS REMAIN                      
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE FZ MARK.  SREF PLUMES INDICATE TRANSITION            
TO NON-TRIVIAL FZRA AMOUNTS SOUTHERN HALF CWA WITH CHANGEOVER TO ALL            
RAIN POSSIBLE EXTREME SOUTH.   GIVEN SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG             
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE KEPT MIXED BAG OF PRECIP IN THIS AREA FROM ONSET            
THROUGH RETURN TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEHIND SFC LOW LATE ON WED.               
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINLY IN PTYPE AND SUSPECT QPF AMOUNTS AFTER COLLAB             
WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING WATCH AND WILL LET NIGHT            
SHIFT REASSESS OFF NEXT MODEL CYCLE FOR BETTER CONFIDENCE.                      
NEVERTHELESS...TRAVELERS SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER             
STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE               
AND SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.                                                    
A BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE MODERATE COLD AIR BEFORE             
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER IN SERIES OF SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION               
FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.  TRENDS AT THIS TIME AMONG GFS/ECMWF ARE             
TOWARDS A COLD RAIN EVENT BUT IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO BANK ON ANY               
PARTICULAR OUTCOME.  TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL APPARENT BUT OVERALL              
CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING IN NEXT SYSTEM SAT/SUN REMAINS.                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     INZ004>006.                                                                
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ080-081.           
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ080-           
     081.                                                                       
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077-078.              
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079.              
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-002-           
     004-005-015-016-024-025.                                                   
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING             
     FOR LMZ043-046.                                                            
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                            
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION/UPDATE...JC                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1200 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.                                                        
WINDS CONTINUED TO GUST FM THE NW UP TO 28KTS LATE THIS EVE. SFC                
PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNGT AS SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE              
CNTRL PLAINS CONTINUED TO APRCH. SO...WL KEEP GUSTS GOING THROUGH               
09Z BUT MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20-25KTS. THEN...SFC HIGH PRES TO               
MOV ACRS THE OH VLY AFT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WL PUT AN END TO               
THE GUSTS. SCT LGT SN SHOWERS AND BKN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS WERE             
CONTINUING THIS EVE IN THE CYCLONIC UPR FLOW...BUT WL BE ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z AS AN UPR RIDGE APPROACHES FM THE W AND THE COLUMN DRIES             
OUT. FINALLY...TNGT...EXPECT SOME INCRS IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFT              
06Z PER THE MODEL TIME SECS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON ANOTHER POTENTIAL               
ICING EVENT FOR TUE.                                                            
AT 19Z SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE LOW               
PRESSURE WAS JUST INSIDE SERN CANADA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE WAS            
CREATING SFC WINDS GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA /FA/. TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE COLD AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO             
MID TEENS.                                                                      
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH MOST DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE            
COLD AIR. FOR THE BIGGER PICTURE WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF                    
SOLUTIONS...USING THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED AND A            
BLEND OF THE SREF AND GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM. FOR TEMPERATURE                   
DETAILS WILL NOT RELY ON ANY SPECIFIC MODEL.                                    
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS                
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE E. RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS               
HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES. USING IT WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES            
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NRN FA. NOT QUITE SURE THAT IT WILL GET              
THAT COLD WITH CLOUDS EARLY AND WITH CORE OF COLD AIR MOVING OFF                
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT DOES COME TRUE. WILL            
COMPROMISE AND GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS FAR NRN FA              
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. THIS IS BELOW ALL                
MOS. STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WITH THE COLD                
TEMPS WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS STILL WARRANTED. WILL BE FLIRTING WITH             
WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS EXTREME N...BUT OVERALL ADVISORY             
SHOULD HOLD IT. MEANWHILE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL END AT 700 PM AND              
THIS LOOKS GOOD OVERALL...SO WILL LET IT RIDE.                                  
ON MONDAY EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH               
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN HOW POORLY MOS IS DOING WITH                     
TEMPS...WENT COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS.                                         
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.               
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH AND THEN ALLOWING THEM TO                
RISE SOME LATE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRECIP IN THE NWRN FA                
BEFORE 12Z BUT LOWER ATMS IS QUITE DRY. ATTM FEEL THAT ANY PRECIP               
WOULD EVAPORATE. THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST.                                   
ON TUE STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE              
FA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH WORKED WELL WITH             
LAST EVENT...INDICATE PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW ACROSS THE N AND              
AS A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON ENOUGH                
WARM AIR WILL WORK IN ALOFT FOR PRECIP TO BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS               
SRN HALF OF FA AND SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS NRN FA. COULD BE A FEW                 
INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NRN FA WHERE COLDEST TEMPS WILL              
LINGER LONGEST. WITH COLD AIR HANGING ON AT THE SFC...THERE MAY BE              
SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL FA TUE AFTN...BUT ATTM FEEL                
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA. SRN FA WILL WARM              
TO OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING FOR ONLY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.                
TUE NIGHT FORCING INCREASES WITH AN UPPER JET MOVING IN ALONG WITH              
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. THUS WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS. MUCH OF FA WILL            
WARM TO AT LEAST JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE               
JUST A COLD RAIN. NRN FA WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN             
EARLY ON UNTIL TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING.                                    
RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SAID FRONT              
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY AND SHUT OFF THE BULK OF THE            
PRECIP BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES LEFTOVERS TO SNOW.              
COULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTN.                     
THANKS TO IWX AND LMK FOR COORDINATION.                                         
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...CS                                                                     
AVIATION...MK/LJ                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
702 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.                                                        
SFC PRES GRADIENT WL WEAKEN ONLY GRADUALLY TNGT...SO WL GRADUALLY               
DCRS WINDS IN ACCORDANCE. GUSTS...MEANWHILE...SHOULD DROP OFF                   
QUICKER WITH THE LOSS OF SS AND MIXING. TOMORROW...DONT EXPECT ANY              
GUSTS AS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE OH VLY. WL GO MORE                      
OPTIMISTIC TNGT REGARDING DCRS IN CU AS NOT MUCH UPSTREAM...MOSTLY              
DIURNAL AND WK S/W TO PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE IN              
ITS WAKE. SO...WL SCATTER OUT THE CU EARLY IN THE OVERNGT. PRIOR TO             
THAT...CIGS BORDERLING MVFR/VFR. FOR NOW...WL GO OPTIMISTIC WITH                
VFR. CI TO INCRS TOMORROW AS WRN RIDGE APPROACHES.                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON ANOTHER POTENTIAL               
ICING EVENT FOR TUE.                                                            
AT 19Z SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE LOW               
PRESSURE WAS JUST INSIDE SERN CANADA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE WAS            
CREATING SFC WINDS GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA /FA/. TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE COLD AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO             
MID TEENS.                                                                      
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH MOST DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE            
COLD AIR. FOR THE BIGGER PICTURE WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF                    
SOLUTIONS...USING THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED AND A            
BLEND OF THE SREF AND GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM. FOR TEMPERATURE                   
DETAILS WILL NOT RELY ON ANY SPECIFIC MODEL.                                    
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS                
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE E. RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS               
HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES. USING IT WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES            
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NRN FA. NOT QUITE SURE THAT IT WILL GET              
THAT COLD WITH CLOUDS EARLY AND WITH CORE OF COLD AIR MOVING OFF                
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT DOES COME TRUE. WILL            
COMPROMISE AND GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS FAR NRN FA              
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. THIS IS BELOW ALL                
MOS. STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WITH THE COLD                
TEMPS WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS STILL WARRANTED. WILL BE FLIRTING WITH             
WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS EXTREME N...BUT OVERALL ADVISORY             
SHOULD HOLD IT. MEANWHILE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL END AT 700 PM AND              
THIS LOOKS GOOD OVERALL...SO WILL LET IT RIDE.                                  
ON MONDAY EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH               
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN HOW POORLY MOS IS DOING WITH                     
TEMPS...WENT COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS.                                         
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.               
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH AND THEN ALLOWING THEM TO                
RISE SOME LATE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRECIP IN THE NWRN FA                
BEFORE 12Z BUT LOWER ATMS IS QUITE DRY. ATTM FEEL THAT ANY PRECIP               
WOULD EVAPORATE. THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST.                                   
ON TUE STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE              
FA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH WORKED WELL WITH             
LAST EVENT...INDICATE PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW ACROSS THE N AND              
AS A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON ENOUGH                
WARM AIR WILL WORK IN ALOFT FOR PRECIP TO BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS               
SRN HALF OF FA AND SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS NRN FA. COULD BE A FEW                 
INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NRN FA WHERE COLDEST TEMPS WILL              
LINGER LONGEST. WITH COLD AIR HANGING ON AT THE SFC...THERE MAY BE              
SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL FA TUE AFTN...BUT ATTM FEEL                
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA. SRN FA WILL WARM              
TO OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING FOR ONLY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.                
TUE NIGHT FORCING INCREASES WITH AN UPPER JET MOVING IN ALONG WITH              
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. THUS WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS. MUCH OF FA WILL            
WARM TO AT LEAST JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE               
JUST A COLD RAIN. NRN FA WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN             
EARLY ON UNTIL TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING.                                    
RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SAID FRONT              
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY AND SHUT OFF THE BULK OF THE            
PRECIP BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES LEFTOVERS TO SNOW.              
COULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTN.                     
THANKS TO IWX AND LMK FOR COORDINATION.                                         
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...CS                                                                     
AVIATION...MK                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
357 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY WINTER CONDITIONS CONTINUE...               
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH KGRR AND THEIR DISCUSSIONS WITH MICHIGAN               
STATE POLICE...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO             
A BLIZZARD WARNING. CONDITIONS BEING MET ALONG MAJOR ROADS WITH                 
HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATES BEING CLOSED DUE TO ZERO VISIBILITIES AND              
HIGH WINDS. KBEH OBSERVATION CERTAINLY CLOSE OR MEETING CRITERIA AT             
TIMES SO HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH KGRR.                                 
ARCTIC COLD AIR NOW IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS                  
AROUND ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR STRATOCU FINALLY DEVELOPING                
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS               
HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN BERRIEN BUT AS EXPECTED HAVE BEEN ON LIGHT                 
SIDE. STRONG GRADIENT FLOW AND DIURNAL MIXING WITH SUN HAS LED TO               
WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES AND              
RECENT REPORT OF I94 ACCIDENT AND ROAD CLOSURE IN NEAR WHITEOUT                 
CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES.                                            
BULK OF COLD AIR TO PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS            
PROGGED TO BE NEAR A STAGGERING NEGATIVE 28C. RATHER UNUSUAL SETUP              
AS THIS COLD CORE PASSES OVER AREA THIS EVENING AND TEMPS BEGIN TO              
WARM WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF MAIN UPPER              
LOW TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. NAM 2M SURFACE TEMPS               
AND MANY OF THE WRF RUNS NOT HANDLING SURFACE TEMPS WELL AT ALL AND             
TOO WARM THIS AFTERNOON. RUC DOING BEST JOB AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED              
WITH BLEND OF CURRENT COLD GRIDS THROUGH END OF RUC CYCLE. PROBLEM              
IS POTENTIAL WARMING OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LAKE PLUME                  
INCREASING. WILL TREND TOWARD STEADYING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT                  
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT PLUME AND RISING TEMPERATURES WITHIN MODIFIED            
PLUME OFF OF LAKE.                                                              
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT...POOR DGZ REGION EARLY THIS EVENING              
BEGINS TO CLIMB AND BECOME LOCATED WITHIN MOIST LAYER AND MAXIMUM               
OMEGA OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS 925-700MB LAYER BEGINS TO WARM.            
DELTA T VALUES REMAIN IN LOWER 20S AND WINDS BEGIN TO DROP TO A MORE            
FAVORABLE SPEED WITH LONGER FETCH OVER LAKE. KSBN BUFKIT SOUNDING               
STILL SHOWS INVERSION HANGING ON BUT KAZO AND KGRR PROFILES MUCH                
MORE FAVORABLE. NAM WRF 4KM SHOWING LAKE EFFECT IMPROVING THROUGH               
THE NIGHT WITH INDICATIONS OF A COUPLE DOMINATE BANDS...THE SECOND              
BEING OVER OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA INTO BRANCH AND HILLSDALE                
COUNTIES. THIS SECOND BAND WILL BE INTERESTING AND IF IT INDEED                 
DEVELOPS WILL NEED TO INCREASE AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS FROM CURRENT              
RANGE. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL FOCUS ON BETTER CHANCE AREA OF IMPACT             
IN CURRENT WARNING AREA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS HIGHER THAN                    
PREFERRED TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCH SNOW             
RANGE BUT STILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF IDEAL CONDITIONS             
CAN SET UP AND PERSIST...MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF MICHIGAN COUNTIES.            
FLOW BEGINS TO BACK MONDAY BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH FLOW TURNING             
MORE SOUTHWEST. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY MORNING AND                    
TRANSITION TO CHANCE POPS BY AFTERNOON BEFORE LAKE EFFECT ENDS.                 
MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND COULD HELP SET STAGE               
FOR NEXT PCPN EVENT COMING IN FOR TUESDAY. AS WE SAW THIS PAST                  
THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF ICE STORM...SKIES CLEARED                  
BRIEFLY IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH NEARBY.                
TEMPS DROPPED WELL BELOW GUIDANCE EARLY BEFORE RECOVERING DURING                
EVENT. SIMILAR SET UP APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES                    
CLEARING AND WINDS LIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH WARM             
AIR ADVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOWS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE OVER                
LOCKED SNOW PACK THAT IS FRESH IN AREAS AND FROZEN SOLID IN OTHERS.             
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT NEAR ZERO SOUTHWEST AND BELOW ZERO                     
NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWING RISING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                        
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM TUESDAY            
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS A POTENT SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE                    
REGION.  MODEL CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THIS TIME FRAME AND LOW                
BEYOND IT AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES.          
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY LEADS TO SFC LOW EJECTING IN SW FLOW AS            
WESTERN CONUS TROF FLATTENS AND EJECTS UPR LEVEL ENERGY ALONG MID               
LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK OVER INDIANA WHICH               
BRINGS INEVITABLE PTYPE CONCERNS.  ESSENTIALLY A ONE TWO PUNCH WITH             
WAA PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SFC LOW ITSELF EARLY                   
WEDNESDAY.  INITIAL TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TO BREAK OUT             
IN WAA REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING LOW.  GOMEX IS WIDE OPEN BY MIDDAY             
TUESDAY AND THE MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SETTING THE              
STAGE FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL ESP ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF FORECAST               
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE SFC FEATURE               
ADVANCES BRINGING IN THE SECOND ACT AS WARM AIR RAPIDLY ADVANCES                
AHEAD OF LOW WITH 60+ KT FLOW AT H85 STREAMING WARM MOIST AIR                   
THROUGH LOW LEVELS INTO THE CWA. AS USUAL MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT               
WITH AMOUNT OF WARMING AND EFFECTS ON THERMAL PROFILE/PTYPE.  HAVE              
BASICALLY FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A BIT OF              
FURTHER SOUTH..COLDER SREF AND AWAY FROM THE WARM BIASED ECMWF.  ABV            
FZ H85 TEMPS MIGRATE INTO NORTH CWA WHILE SFC TEMPS REMAIN                      
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE FZ MARK.  SREF PLUMES INDICATE TRANSITION            
TO NON-TRIVIAL FZRA AMOUNTS SOUTHERN HALF CWA WITH CHANGEOVER TO ALL            
RAIN POSSIBLE EXTREME SOUTH.   GIVEN SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG             
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE KEPT MIXED BAG OF PRECIP IN THIS AREA FROM ONSET            
THROUGH RETURN TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEHIND SFC LOW LATE ON WED.               
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINLY IN PTYPE AND SUSPECT QPF AMOUNTS AFTER COLLAB             
WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING WATCH AND WILL LET NIGHT            
SHIFT REASSESS OFF NEXT MODEL CYCLE FOR BETTER CONFIDENCE.                      
NEVERTHELESS...TRAVELERS SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER             
STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE               
AND SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.                                                    
A BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE MODERATE COLD AIR BEFORE             
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER IN SERIES OF SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION               
FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.  TRENDS AT THIS TIME AMONG GFS/ECMWF ARE             
TOWARDS A COLD RAIN EVENT BUT IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO BANK ON ANY               
PARTICULAR OUTCOME.  TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL APPARENT BUT OVERALL              
CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING IN NEXT SYSTEM SAT/SUN REMAINS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS                                                            
VERY DRY/COLD AIRMASS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ARCTIC                  
FRONT HAS LED TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR               
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS...ALTHOUGH              
DEVELOPING CU FIELD MAY ALLOW FOR BKN HIGH END MVFR CIGS. WILL                  
REMAIN OPTIMISTIC WITH SCT020 FOR NOW AND AMEND IF NEEDED. STRONG               
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND LOW TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES                
HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST NEAR 35 KTS. EXPECT THESE STRONG                      
WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING                 
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID MS                   
VALLEY. MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT SHSN                   
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS              
PIVOTS THROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF DEEP UPPER VORTEX. FLOW WITHIN THE                
CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL SHIFT MORE WNW WHICH WILL ALLOW SHSN                   
ACTIVITY AND MVFR SC DECK TO IMPACT FWA/SBN. THERE IS THE                       
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS AT SBN LATE THIS                  
AFTN AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH                                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR                   
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ013-015-017-             
     018-020-022>027-032>034.                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR              
     INZ003>009-012-014-016.                                                    
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.             
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                    
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ079.                    
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-           
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ015-016-024-             
     025.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-             
     004-005.                                                                   
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-             
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                            
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL                                                           
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
239 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON ANOTHER POTENTIAL               
ICING EVENT FOR TUE.                                                            
AT 19Z SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE LOW               
PRESSURE WAS JUST INSIDE SERN CANADA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE WAS            
CREATING SFC WINDS GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA /FA/. TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE COLD AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO             
MID TEENS.                                                                      
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH MOST DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE            
COLD AIR. FOR THE BIGGER PICTURE WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF                    
SOLUTIONS...USING THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED AND A            
BLEND OF THE SREF AND GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM. FOR TEMPERATURE                   
DETAILS WILL NOT RELY ON ANY SPECIFIC MODEL.                                    
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS                
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE E. RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS               
HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES. USING IT WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES            
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NRN FA. NOT QUITE SURE THAT IT WILL GET              
THAT COLD WITH CLOUDS EARLY AND WITH CORE OF COLD AIR MOVING OFF                
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT DOES COME TRUE. WILL            
COMPROMISE AND GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS FAR NRN FA              
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. THIS IS BELOW ALL                
MOS. STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WITH THE COLD                
TEMPS WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS STILL WARRANTED. WILL BE FLIRTING WITH             
WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS EXTREME N...BUT OVERALL ADVISORY             
SHOULD HOLD IT. MEANWHILE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL END AT 700 PM AND              
THIS LOOKS GOOD OVERALL...SO WILL LET IT RIDE.                                  
ON MONDAY EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH               
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN HOW POORLY MOS IS DOING WITH                     
TEMPS...WENT COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS.                                         
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.               
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH AND THEN ALLOWING THEM TO                
RISE SOME LATE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRECIP IN THE NWRN FA                
BEFORE 12Z BUT LOWER ATMS IS QUITE DRY. ATTM FEEL THAT ANY PRECIP               
WOULD EVAPORATE. THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST.                                   
ON TUE STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE              
FA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH WORKED WELL WITH             
LAST EVENT...INDICATE PRECIP STARTING OUT AS SNOW ACROSS THE N AND              
AS A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON ENOUGH                
WARM AIR WILL WORK IN ALOFT FOR PRECIP TO BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS               
SRN HALF OF FA AND SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS NRN FA. COULD BE A FEW                 
INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NRN FA WHERE COLDEST TEMPS WILL              
LINGER LONGEST. WITH COLD AIR HANGING ON AT THE SFC...THERE MAY BE              
SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL FA TUE AFTN...BUT ATTM FEEL                
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA. SRN FA WILL WARM              
TO OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING FOR ONLY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.                
TUE NIGHT FORCING INCREASES WITH AN UPPER JET MOVING IN ALONG WITH              
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. THUS WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS. MUCH OF FA WILL            
WARM TO AT LEAST JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE               
JUST A COLD RAIN. NRN FA WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN             
EARLY ON UNTIL TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING.                                    
RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SAID FRONT              
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY AND SHUT OFF THE BULK OF THE            
PRECIP BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES LEFTOVERS TO SNOW.              
COULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTN.                     
THANKS TO IWX AND LMK FOR COORDINATION.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.                                                        
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD W-NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.                
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND               
EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.  WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY            
INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING LEVEL INCREASES. MIE             
ALREADY REPORTED A WIND GUST UP TO 39 KNOTS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS                   
ESPECIALLY NAM SHOWS BROKEN CLOUDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.                   
GFS/RUC ALSO SHOW THIS...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NAM AND GFS IS              
QUICKER TO CLEAR US OUT LATER TONIGHT.  WILL GO WITH LATTER SCENARIO            
AS CURRENTLY NOT MUCH CLOUDS UPSTREAM.  THEY MAY TEMPORARILY                    
INCRAESE...THIS SHOULD REVERSE TONIGH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.             
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...CS                                                                     
AVIATION...JH                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1224 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS                                                            
VERY DRY/COLD AIRMASS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ARCTIC                  
FRONT HAS LED TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR               
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS...ALTHOUGH              
DEVELOPING CU FIELD MAY ALLOW FOR BKN HIGH END MVFR CIGS. WILL                  
REMAIN OPTIMISTIC WITH SCT020 FOR NOW AND AMEND IF NEEDED. STRONG               
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND LOW TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES                
HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST NEAR 35 KTS. EXPECT THESE STRONG                      
WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING                 
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID MS                   
VALLEY. MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT SHSN                   
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS              
PIVOTS THROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF DEEP UPPER VORTEX. FLOW WITHIN THE                
CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL SHIFT MORE WNW WHICH WILL ALLOW SHSN                   
ACTIVITY AND MVFR SC DECK TO IMPACT FWA/SBN. THERE IS THE                       
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS AT SBN LATE THIS                  
AFTN AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIG/VIS FCST                
WITH A TEMPO IFR MENTION THIS EVENING AT SBN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008/                        
..DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND INCREASING          
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
UPDATE...                                                                       
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST THIS MORNING AND ALL PRODUCTS              
SHOULD BE UPDATED AND OUT. SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED               
WITH ARCTIC INTRUSION HAS CLEARED SKIES ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT                
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS PERSIST. ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP INCREASE                  
MIXING TO SOME EXTENT IN LOWER LEVELS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN                   
INCREASED WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE                  
AGAIN LATER TODAY. SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC WIND PLOT SHOWING 50 TO 60               
KNOTS AT 12Z UPSTREAM TO EASTERN IA AND WESTERN WI. BUFKIT                      
SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL OF UP TO 45 KNOTS FROM INVERSION               
HEIGHT. GIVEN THE ICING SITUATION AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES                    
ALREADY OCCURRING...DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A WIND ADVISORY MOST                  
AREAS. HOWEVER...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A LIGHT SNOW                  
OCCURRED AND SNOW COVER ALREADY EXISTS...WENT WITH A WINTER                     
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADDED IMPACT OF BLOWING SNOW AND POTENTIAL                 
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PRODUCT                   
COMBINES THE WIND THREAT WITH THE BLOWING SNOW FOR SIMPLICITY OF                
HEADLINES.                                                                      
NEXT FOCUS WAS ON WIND CHILL CRITERIA. AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING               
LAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAD NO CLUE ON SEVERITY OF THIS COLD AIRMASS             
AND ONLY COLLABORATION ISSUES KEPT US FROM GOING COLDER. NOW THAT IT            
IS HERE AND TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...UPGRADES ARE NEEDED FROM            
WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO WARNINGS. SEVERAL SITES ALREADY AT OR BELOW              
ZERO WITH TEMPERATURES AND CURRENT WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS AT                
WARNING CRITERIA NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO. UPGRADED ALL AREAS TO WARNING              
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PUSH                  
VALUES COLDER THAN 30 BELOW IN SOME AREAS AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING               
MUCH RECOVERY IN TEMPS. WINDS RELAX SOME TONIGHT BUT LOWS BELOW                 
ZERO EXPECTED SO WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN WARNING AREA. IT HAS              
BEEN AWHILE SINCE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THESE KIND OF WIND CHILLS.                
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS LEFT INTACT. AGAIN TO KEEP HEADLINES                   
SIMPLE...WIND ADVISORY AND WIND CHILL ARE COMBINED INTO THE WARNING             
AND MENTIONED IN BODY. WIND CHILLS ACTUALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT            
MORE MODERATE IN THIS AREA DUE TO WARMER LAKE PLUME AND CLOUDS.                 
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS COULD BE GREATER NEAR THE LAKE.                             
SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                       
.BITTER WIND CHILLS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS AND INCREASING                    
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING BEHIND             
IT. MOST LOCATIONS GOING FROM MIDDLE 20S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITHIN            
3 HOURS. ALSO BURST OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STG              
CAA WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE. HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ON            
WIND ADVISORIES FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT THINK FOR NOW WILL               
HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING. IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR ONE FOR THE            
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.                    
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR.                
STARTING AT 12Z ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO BE WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS            
WEST TO MID TEENS EAST AS FRONT WILL JUST BE CLEARING THESE AREAS.              
THEN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. POPULATED WITH RUC40 DATA              
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME              
LOCATIONS IN THE SW AREAS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO BY LATE MORNING.              
GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY 1 ABOVE AT ORD AND CORE OF COLDEST 850             
MB TEMPS POISED TO PASS OVER THE SW HALF THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES             
IN THE -25 TO -28 C RANGE /15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MEANS FOR                     
DECEMBER/...THINK THIS IS REASONABLE AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS. THIS               
BRINGS ANOTHER CHALLENGE. IF WINDS DO REMAIN UP...THEN THESE SAME               
AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW              
WILL STICK WITH ADVISORY...BUT SPEED UP ONSET TO START WITH PACKAGE             
RELEASE AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR WINDS AND TEMPS FOR POSSIBLE                  
UPGRADE.                                                                        
ALSO HAS HAS BEEN NOTED IN MANY PRODUCTS...ANTICIPATING INCREASED               
ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES AND TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE AS STRONG WINDS            
OVERLOAD ALREADY BURDENED LINES AND TREES. POWER HAS ALREADY BEEN               
FLUCTUATING HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MANY             
AREAS WITH ICE STILL AROUND.                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS WILL QUICKLY KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH              
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN THROUGH ST JOE              
COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN. WHILE BEING A BIT OF A PROLONGED EVENT...WIND             
CHILLS...WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL WILL ALL LEAD TO ROUGH TRAVEL IN            
THESE AREAS. BAND STILL LOOKS TO SET UP RATHER NICELY TOWARDS MONDAY            
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND SINCE THIS HAS             
BEEN THERE FOR SEVERAL RUNS WILL BLEND WITH GRR AND DTX AND EXPAND              
LIKELY POPS OUT INTO HILLSDALE CO. WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2              
INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW.                                              
THINGS LOOK TO EASE UP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO GIVE A DRY BUT            
COLD FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE LONG TERM.                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
DIFFICULT FCST PD THROUGHOUT.                                                   
VRY INTENSE SW TROUGH OVR THE GULF OF AK YDA HAS STEAMED SEWD TO NR             
COASTAL WA STATE THIS MORNING...BRINGING RARE HEAVY SNOW TO KSEA AND            
A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW INTENSE THIS SYS IS. UPSTREAM JET STREAK PER VAPOR      
LOOKS QUITE INTENSE AS WELL AND WILL AID SYS DIG INTO SWRN ROCKIES              
TUE. DOWNSTREAM CONDS REMAIN A MESS THOUGH W/INCOMING INTENSE ARCTIC            
WEDGE AND EVENTUALLY STG LL MSTR RTN OVERTOP RETREATING COLD DOME               
MID WEEK. 00Z GUIDANCE TAKEN AS A WHOLE TRENDING QUICKER W/PCPN DVLPMNT         
AND NOW INDICATING SNOW TUE AM AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN UPR             
JET SHIFTING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY TUE AFTN. PRIMARY DIFFICULTY              
LIES W/LL THERMAL RESPONSE INTO RETREATING ARCTIC WEDGE. AS NOTED               
YDA...STILL FEEL MODELS ERODING ARCTIC DOME TOO QUICKLY ESP OVR                 
DEEPER HIGH DENSITY SNOWPACK ACRS NRN PORTION OF CWA YET ON THE                 
OTHER HAND CAN`T DISCOUNT LACK OF SNOW CVR ACRS DOWNSTATE IL/IN.                
THUS IT SEEMS AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIG ICING             
EVENT PSBL TUE NIGHT AND WED ACRS NRN/NW THIRD OF CWA. PRIOR TO                 
THAT...MAINLY SNOW TUE INTO TUE EVENING BFR WARM LYR LEADS TO IP MIX            
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US 30 AND ZR SOUTH OF US 24.                                 
EJECTION OF INTENSE WRN SW LT TUE MORE DISCONCERTING GIVEN DRAMATIC             
MED RANGE TRENDS W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT SEEN IN 00Z GFS AND ITS                
ENSEMBLES. OP GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SIMILAR...BOTH IN INTENSITY AND               
QUICKER NEWD EJECTION COMPARED W/GFS ENSEMBLES YET CERTAINLY WITHIN             
THE SCOPE OF POSSIBILITIES. PRIOR FLAT OPEN WV EJECTION SEEN IN 12Z             
RUNS COMPARABLE W/LATEST WRF 4KM RUN SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. BEST               
RECOURSE AT THIS POINT IS TO WEIGHT WED PD MORE HEAVILY TWD A MIXED             
PCPN EVENT XPC PERHAPS FAR NW PER IMPLIED SFC LOW TRACK BUT DO XPC              
ADDNL SIG FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE NXT 36HRS UNTIL THIS SYS GETS                
FURTHER INTO UPR AIR NETWORK AND SAMPLED BTR. IN THE LEAST...ANOTHER            
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT LIKELY TO BE REALIZED TUE NIGHT/WED.                  
AFT THAT...PATTN RELOADS AMAZINGLY FAST W/YET ANOTHER INTENSE MID               
LAT CYCLONE FOR LT WEEK. ADDNL HEADACHES CERTAIN YET WILL SPARE ANY             
DETAILS FOR THE MOMENT GIVEN THAT TIME RANGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR                   
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ013-015-017-             
     018-020-022>027-032>034.                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR              
     INZ003>009-012-014-016.                                                    
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>079.                
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-           
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ015-016-024-             
     025.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-             
     004-005.                                                                   
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-             
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
UPDATE...LASHLEY                                                                
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL                                                           
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1212 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.                                                        
STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD W-NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.                
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND               
EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.  WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY            
INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING LEVEL INCREASES. MIE             
ALREADY REPORTED A WIND GUST UP TO 39 KNOTS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS                   
ESPECIALLY NAM SHOWS BROKEN CLOUDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.                   
GFS/RUC ALSO SHOW THIS...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NAM AND GFS IS              
QUICKER TO CLEAR US OUT LATER TONIGHT.  WILL GO WITH LATTER SCENARIO            
AS CURRENTLY NOT MUCH CLOUDS UPSTREAM.  THEY MAY TEMPORARILY                    
INCRAESE...THIS SHOULD REVERSE TONIGH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.             
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST. EXTREMELY              
TIGHT PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING INTO INDIANA. AT INDY            
HAD A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH AT 130 AM. RUC HAS 48 MPH WINDS AT 2,500              
FT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY DURING             
THE MORNING THERE WILL BE GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ABOVE               
ADVISORY LEVELS CENTRAL AND N AND CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE SOUTH. THE                
WINDS WILL DROP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE WAY TO WARM            
WITH THE TEMPS. THE NAM WHICH IS THE COLDEST AT HUF AT 09Z HAS 20               
THEY WILL BE 16 OR MAYBE LOWER. THE NAM 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -25                
THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CUT GUIDANCE HIGHS WAY BACK TODAY. THEY MAY             
TRY TO REBOUND SOME THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH COLD AIR SC MOVING IN               
THIS WILL SLOW THAT ALONG WITH THE SHORTEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE OF               
THE YEAR. THIS WILL PUT WIND CHILL VALUES WELL INTO ADVSRY LEVELS.              
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING THEY WILL REMAIN HIGH              
ENOUGH WITH THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE ZERO TO KEEP THE ADVSRY GOING                  
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE WEDGE OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL MOVE EAST              
OF INDIANA ON MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY WILL                
ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.                
MODEL TIME SECS FAVOR SOME CLRG ON MON AS LOW LVL MOISTURE THINS AND            
SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE OH VLY ALONG WITH A FLAT UPR RIDGE.              
NICE RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APRCHG CD FNT SHOULD BRING              
SOME LGT SN IN TUES PM AND CHRISTMAS EVE PERHAPS MIXED WITH RN S PER            
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS.                                         
MODELS SUGGESTING MORE PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED THAN EITHER HPC OR                
THIS MRNGS FCST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES BUT ARE                
TRENDING TOWARD A PROLONGED PD OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING            
CD FNT. SO...OVERRUNNING SECENARIO PSBL WITH RN/SN MIX SUGGESTED BY             
THICKNESSES. LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE USUALLY MORE ACCURATE             
ECMWF AND HAVE PRECIP IN ON CHRISTMAS NGT                                       
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...HAINES                                                                 
AVIATION...JH                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1040 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND INCREASING         
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST THIS MORNING AND ALL PRODUCTS              
SHOULD BE UPDATED AND OUT. SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED               
WITH ARCTIC INTRUSION HAS CLEARED SKIES ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT                
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS PERSIST. ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP INCREASE                  
MIXING TO SOME EXTENT IN LOWER LEVELS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN                   
INCREASED WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE                  
AGAIN LATER TODAY. SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC WIND PLOT SHOWING 50 TO 60               
KNOTS AT 12Z UPSTREAM TO EASTERN IA AND WESTERN WI. BUFKIT                      
SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL OF UP TO 45 KNOTS FROM INVERSION               
HEIGHT. GIVEN THE ICING SITUATION AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES                    
ALREADY OCCURRING...DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A WIND ADVISORY MOST                  
AREAS. HOWEVER...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A LIGHT SNOW                  
OCCURRED AND SNOW COVER ALREADY EXISTS...WENT WITH A WINTER                     
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADDED IMPACT OF BLOWING SNOW AND POTENTIAL                 
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PRODUCT                   
COMBINES THE WIND THREAT WITH THE BLOWING SNOW FOR SIMPLICITY OF                
HEADLINES.                                                                      
NEXT FOCUS WAS ON WIND CHILL CRITERIA. AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING               
LAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAD NO CLUE ON SEVERITY OF THIS COLD AIRMASS             
AND ONLY COLLABORATION ISSUES KEPT US FROM GOING COLDER. NOW THAT IT            
IS HERE AND TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...UPGRADES ARE NEEDED FROM            
WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO WARNINGS. SEVERAL SITES ALREADY AT OR BELOW              
ZERO WITH TEMPERATURES AND CURRENT WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS AT                
WARNING CRITERIA NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO. UPGRADED ALL AREAS TO WARNING              
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PUSH                  
VALUES COLDER THAN 30 BELOW IN SOME AREAS AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING               
MUCH RECOVERY IN TEMPS. WINDS RELAX SOME TONIGHT BUT LOWS BELOW                 
ZERO EXPECTED SO WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN WARNING AREA. IT HAS              
BEEN AWHILE SINCE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THESE KIND OF WIND CHILLS.                
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS LEFT INTACT. AGAIN TO KEEP HEADLINES                   
SIMPLE...WIND ADVISORY AND WIND CHILL ARE COMBINED INTO THE WARNING             
AND MENTIONED IN BODY. WIND CHILLS ACTUALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT            
MORE MODERATE IN THIS AREA DUE TO WARMER LAKE PLUME AND CLOUDS.                 
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS COULD BE GREATER NEAR THE LAKE.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY MVFR CONDS XPCD WITHIN POST FNTL ARCTIC WEDGE TDA AND                 
TONIGHT. STG GRADIENT FLW WILL CONT BTWN DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES OVR             
CNTRL LWR MI AND INCOMING ARCTIC RIDGE W/GUSTS EASILY TO 35KTS IF               
NOT MORE ESP LT MORNING INTO THIS AFTN IF WE CAN MANAGE SOME                    
INSOLATION. OTHERWISE FLW MODEL FCST FLW TRAJECTORIES KEEP BRUNT OF             
LK EFFECT SHSN BOTTLED UP ACRS LWR MI W/SCT SHSN XPCD FURTHER S AS              
COLD POOL ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTN.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                     
..BITTER WIND CHILLS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS AND INCREASING                   
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING BEHIND             
IT. MOST LOCATIONS GOING FROM MIDDLE 20S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITHIN            
3 HOURS. ALSO BURST OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STG              
CAA WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE. HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ON            
WIND ADVISORIES FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT THINK FOR NOW WILL               
HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING. IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR ONE FOR THE            
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.                    
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR.                
STARTING AT 12Z ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO BE WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS            
WEST TO MID TEENS EAST AS FRONT WILL JUST BE CLEARING THESE AREAS.              
THEN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. POPULATED WITH RUC40 DATA              
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME              
LOCATIONS IN THE SW AREAS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO BY LATE MORNING.              
GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY 1 ABOVE AT ORD AND CORE OF COLDEST 850             
MB TEMPS POISED TO PASS OVER THE SW HALF THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES             
IN THE -25 TO -28 C RANGE /15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MEANS FOR                     
DECEMBER/...THINK THIS IS REASONABLE AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS. THIS               
BRINGS ANOTHER CHALLENGE. IF WINDS DO REMAIN UP...THEN THESE SAME               
AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW              
WILL STICK WITH ADVISORY...BUT SPEED UP ONSET TO START WITH PACKAGE             
RELEASE AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR WINDS AND TEMPS FOR POSSIBLE                  
UPGRADE.                                                                        
ALSO HAS HAS BEEN NOTED IN MANY PRODUCTS...ANTICIPATING INCREASED               
ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES AND TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE AS STRONG WINDS            
OVERLOAD ALREADY BURDENED LINES AND TREES. POWER HAS ALREADY BEEN               
FLUCTUATING HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MANY             
AREAS WITH ICE STILL AROUND.                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS WILL QUICKLY KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH              
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN THROUGH ST JOE              
COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN. WHILE BEING A BIT OF A PROLONGED EVENT...WIND             
CHILLS...WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL WILL ALL LEAD TO ROUGH TRAVEL IN            
THESE AREAS. BAND STILL LOOKS TO SET UP RATHER NICELY TOWARDS MONDAY            
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND SINCE THIS HAS             
BEEN THERE FOR SEVERAL RUNS WILL BLEND WITH GRR AND DTX AND EXPAND              
LIKELY POPS OUT INTO HILLSDALE CO. WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2              
INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW.                                              
THINGS LOOK TO EASE UP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO GIVE A DRY BUT            
COLD FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE LONG TERM.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
DIFFICULT FCST PD THROUGHOUT.                                                   
VRY INTENSE SW TROUGH OVR THE GULF OF AK YDA HAS STEAMED SEWD TO NR             
COASTAL WA STATE THIS MORNING...BRINGING RARE HEAVY SNOW TO KSEA AND            
A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW INTENSE THIS SYS IS. UPSTREAM JET STREAK PER VAPOR      
LOOKS QUITE INTENSE AS WELL AND WILL AID SYS DIG INTO SWRN ROCKIES              
TUE. DOWNSTREAM CONDS REMAIN A MESS THOUGH W/INCOMING INTENSE ARCTIC            
WEDGE AND EVENTUALLY STG LL MSTR RTN OVERTOP RETREATING COLD DOME               
MID WEEK. 00Z GUIDANCE TAKEN AS A WHOLE TRENDING QUICKER W/PCPN DVLPMNT         
AND NOW INDICATING SNOW TUE AM AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN UPR             
JET SHIFTING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY TUE AFTN. PRIMARY DIFFICULTY              
LIES W/LL THERMAL RESPONSE INTO RETREATING ARCTIC WEDGE. AS NOTED               
YDA...STILL FEEL MODELS ERODING ARCTIC DOME TOO QUICKLY ESP OVR                 
DEEPER HIGH DENSITY SNOWPACK ACRS NRN PORTION OF CWA YET ON THE                 
OTHER HAND CAN`T DISCOUNT LACK OF SNOW CVR ACRS DOWNSTATE IL/IN.                
THUS IT SEEMS AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIG ICING             
EVENT PSBL TUE NIGHT AND WED ACRS NRN/NW THIRD OF CWA. PRIOR TO                 
THAT...MAINLY SNOW TUE INTO TUE EVENING BFR WARM LYR LEADS TO IP MIX            
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US 30 AND ZR SOUTH OF US 24.                                 
EJECTION OF INTENSE WRN SW LT TUE MORE DISCONCERTING GIVEN DRAMATIC             
MED RANGE TRENDS W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT SEEN IN 00Z GFS AND ITS                
ENSEMBLES. OP GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SIMILAR...BOTH IN INTENSITY AND               
QUICKER NEWD EJECTION COMPARED W/GFS ENSEMBLES YET CERTAINLY WITHIN             
THE SCOPE OF POSSIBILITIES. PRIOR FLAT OPEN WV EJECTION SEEN IN 12Z             
RUNS COMPARABLE W/LATEST WRF 4KM RUN SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. BEST               
RECOURSE AT THIS POINT IS TO WEIGHT WED PD MORE HEAVILY TWD A MIXED             
PCPN EVENT XPC PERHAPS FAR NW PER IMPLIED SFC LOW TRACK BUT DO XPC              
ADDNL SIG FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE NXT 36HRS UNTIL THIS SYS GETS                
FURTHER INTO UPR AIR NETWORK AND SAMPLED BTR. IN THE LEAST...ANOTHER            
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT LIKELY TO BE REALIZED TUE NIGHT/WED.                  
AFT THAT...PATTN RELOADS AMAZINGLY FAST W/YET ANOTHER INTENSE MID               
LAT CYCLONE FOR LT WEEK. ADDNL HEADACHES CERTAIN YET WILL SPARE ANY             
DETAILS FOR THE MOMENT GIVEN THAT TIME RANGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR                   
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ013-015-017-             
     018-020-022>027-032>034.                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR              
     INZ003>009-012-014-016.                                                    
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>079.                
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-           
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ015-016-024-             
     025.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-             
     004-005.                                                                   
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-             
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
UPDATE...LASHLEY                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
653 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY MVFR CONDS XPCD WITHIN POST FNTL ARCTIC WEDGE TDA AND                 
TONIGHT. STG GRADIENT FLW WILL CONT BTWN DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES OVR             
CNTRL LWR MI AND INCOMING ARCTIC RIDGE W/GUSTS EASILY TO 35KTS IF               
NOT MORE ESP LT MORNING INTO THIS AFTN IF WE CAN MANAGE SOME                    
INSOLATION. OTHERWISE FLW MODEL FCST FLW TRAJECTORIES KEEP BRUNT OF             
LK EFFECT SHSN BOTTLED UP ACRS LWR MI W/SCT SHSN XPCD FURTHER S AS              
COLD POOL ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTN.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                     
...BITTER WIND CHILLS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS AND INCREASING                  
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING BEHIND             
IT. MOST LOCATIONS GOING FROM MIDDLE 20S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITHIN            
3 HOURS. ALSO BURST OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STG              
CAA WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE. HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ON            
WIND ADVISORIES FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT THINK FOR NOW WILL               
HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING. IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR ONE FOR THE            
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.                    
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR.                
STARTING AT 12Z ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO BE WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS            
WEST TO MID TEENS EAST AS FRONT WILL JUST BE CLEARING THESE AREAS.              
THEN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. POPULATED WITH RUC40 DATA              
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME              
LOCATIONS IN THE SW AREAS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO BY LATE MORNING.              
GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY 1 ABOVE AT ORD AND CORE OF COLDEST 850             
MB TEMPS POISED TO PASS OVER THE SW HALF THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES             
IN THE -25 TO -28 C RANGE /15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MEANS FOR                     
DECEMBER/...THINK THIS IS REASONABLE AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS. THIS               
BRINGS ANOTHER CHALLENGE. IF WINDS DO REMAIN UP...THEN THESE SAME               
AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW              
WILL STICK WITH ADVISORY...BUT SPEED UP ONSET TO START WITH PACKAGE             
RELEASE AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR WINDS AND TEMPS FOR POSSIBLE                  
UPGRADE.                                                                        
ALSO HAS HAS BEEN NOTED IN MANY PRODUCTS...ANTICIPATING INCREASED               
ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES AND TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE AS STRONG WINDS            
OVERLOAD ALREADY BURDENED LINES AND TREES. POWER HAS ALREADY BEEN               
FLUCTUATING HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MANY             
AREAS WITH ICE STILL AROUND.                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS WILL QUICKLY KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH              
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN THROUGH ST JOE              
COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN. WHILE BEING A BIT OF A PROLONGED EVENT...WIND             
CHILLS...WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL WILL ALL LEAD TO ROUGH TRAVEL IN            
THESE AREAS. BAND STILL LOOKS TO SET UP RATHER NICELY TOWARDS MONDAY            
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND SINCE THIS HAS             
BEEN THERE FOR SEVERAL RUNS WILL BLEND WITH GRR AND DTX AND EXPAND              
LIKELY POPS OUT INTO HILLSDALE CO. WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2              
INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW.                                              
THINGS LOOK TO EASE UP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO GIVE A DRY BUT            
COLD FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE LONG TERM.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
DIFFICULT FCST PD THROUGHOUT.                                                   
VRY INTENSE SW TROUGH OVR THE GULF OF AK YDA HAS STEAMED SEWD TO NR             
COASTAL WA STATE THIS MORNING...BRINGING RARE HEAVY SNOW TO KSEA AND            
A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW INTENSE THIS SYS IS. UPSTREAM JET STREAK PER VAPOR      
LOOKS QUITE INTENSE AS WELL AND WILL AID SYS DIG INTO SWRN ROCKIES              
TUE. DOWNSTREAM CONDS REMAIN A MESS THOUGH W/INCOMING INTENSE ARCTIC            
WEDGE AND EVENTUALLY STG LL MSTR RTN OVERTOP RETREATING COLD DOME               
MID WEEK. 00Z GUIDANCE TAKEN AS A WHOLE TRENDING QUICKER W/PCPN DVLPMNT         
AND NOW INDICATING SNOW TUE AM AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN UPR             
JET SHIFTING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY TUE AFTN. PRIMARY DIFFICULTY              
LIES W/LL THERMAL RESPONSE INTO RETREATING ARCTIC WEDGE. AS NOTED               
YDA...STILL FEEL MODELS ERODING ARCTIC DOME TOO QUICKLY ESP OVR                 
DEEPER HIGH DENSITY SNOWPACK ACRS NRN PORTION OF CWA YET ON THE                 
OTHER HAND CAN`T DISCOUNT LACK OF SNOW CVR ACRS DOWNSTATE IL/IN.                
THUS IT SEEMS AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIG ICING             
EVENT PSBL TUE NIGHT AND WED ACRS NRN/NW THIRD OF CWA. PRIOR TO                 
THAT...MAINLY SNOW TUE INTO TUE EVENING BFR WARM LYR LEADS TO IP MIX            
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US 30 AND ZR SOUTH OF US 24.                                 
EJECTION OF INTENSE WRN SW LT TUE MORE DISCONCERTING GIVEN DRAMATIC             
MED RANGE TRENDS W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT SEEN IN 00Z GFS AND ITS                
ENSEMBLES. OP GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SIMILAR...BOTH IN INTENSITY AND               
QUICKER NEWD EJECTION COMPARED W/GFS ENSEMBLES YET CERTAINLY WITHIN             
THE SCOPE OF POSSIBILITIES. PRIOR FLAT OPEN WV EJECTION SEEN IN 12Z             
RUNS COMPARABLE W/LATEST WRF 4KM RUN SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. BEST               
RECOURSE AT THIS POINT IS TO WEIGHT WED PD MORE HEAVILY TWD A MIXED             
PCPN EVENT XPC PERHAPS FAR NW PER IMPLIED SFC LOW TRACK BUT DO XPC              
ADDNL SIG FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE NXT 36HRS UNTIL THIS SYS GETS                
FURTHER INTO UPR AIR NETWORK AND SAMPLED BTR. IN THE LEAST...ANOTHER            
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT LIKELY TO BE REALIZED TUE NIGHT/WED.                  
AFT THAT...PATTN RELOADS AMAZINGLY FAST W/YET ANOTHER INTENSE MID               
LAT CYCLONE FOR LT WEEK. ADDNL HEADACHES CERTAIN YET WILL SPARE ANY             
DETAILS FOR THE MOMENT GIVEN THAT TIME RANGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR                  
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>079.                
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-          
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-             
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
620 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.                                                        
ARCTIC FRONT HAS CROSSED THE AREA AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER ALONG               
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN                
THE SUSTAINED RANGE OF 20 TO 25KTS THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS AS HIGH               
AS 36KTS DURING THIS TIME. SKIES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD CLEAR...BUT              
AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...A BKN CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO                 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS CLOUD              
DECK WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 3KFT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT LAF WHERE IT                   
SHOULD BE AROUND 2500 FEET AND THUS IN THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL              
DISSIPATE AROUND 01Z AND THEN SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TO SCATTERED               
CLOUDS BY 12Z. AS FOR WINDS...THE GUSTINESS WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z               
AND THEN SUSTAINED WINDS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY                
12Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.             
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST. EXTREMELY              
TIGHT PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING INTO INDIANA. AT INDY            
HAD A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH AT 130 AM. RUC HAS 48 MPH WINDS AT 2,500              
FT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY DURING             
THE MORNING THERE WILL BE GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ABOVE               
ADVISORY LEVELS CENTRAL AND N AND CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE SOUTH. THE                
WINDS WILL DROP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE WAY TO WARM            
WITH THE TEMPS. THE NAM WHICH IS THE COLDEST AT HUF AT 09Z HAS 20               
THEY WILL BE 16 OR MAYBE LOWER. THE NAM 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -25                
THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CUT GUIDANCE HIGHS WAY BACK TODAY. THEY MAY             
TRY TO REBOUND SOME THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH COLD AIR SC MOVING IN               
THIS WILL SLOW THAT ALONG WITH THE SHORTEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE OF               
THE YEAR. THIS WILL PUT WIND CHILL VALUES WELL INTO ADVSRY LEVELS.              
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING THEY WILL REMAIN HIGH              
ENOUGH WITH THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE ZERO TO KEEP THE ADVSRY GOING                  
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE WEDGE OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL MOVE EAST              
OF INDIANA ON MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY WILL                
ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.                
MODEL TIME SECS FAVOR SOME CLRG ON MON AS LOW LVL MOISTURE THINS AND            
SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE OH VLY ALONG WITH A FLAT UPR RIDGE.              
NICE RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APRCHG CD FNT SHOULD BRING              
SOME LGT SN IN TUES PM AND CHRISTMAS EVE PERHAPS MIXED WITH RN S PER            
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS.                                         
MODELS SUGGESTING MORE PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED THAN EITHER HPC OR                
THIS MRNGS FCST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES BUT ARE                
TRENDING TOWARD A PROLONGED PD OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING            
CD FNT. SO...OVERRUNNING SECENARIO PSBL WITH RN/SN MIX SUGGESTED BY             
THICKNESSES. LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE USUALLY MORE ACCURATE             
ECMWF AND HAVE PRECIP IN ON CHRISTMAS NGT                                       
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-                   
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JOHNSON                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
406 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                     
...BITTER WIND CHILLS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS AND INCREASING                  
THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO LOOM...                                    
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING BEHIND             
IT. MOST LOCATIONS GOING FROM MIDDLE 20S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITHIN            
3 HOURS. ALSO BURST OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STG              
CAA WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE. HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ON            
WIND ADVISORIES FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT THINK FOR NOW WILL               
HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING. IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR ONE FOR THE            
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.                    
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR.                
STARTING AT 12Z ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO BE WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS            
WEST TO MID TEENS EAST AS FRONT WILL JUST BE CLEARING THESE AREAS.              
THEN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. POPULATED WITH RUC40 DATA              
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME              
LOCATIONS IN THE SW AREAS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO BY LATE MORNING.              
GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY 1 ABOVE AT ORD AND CORE OF COLDEST 850             
MB TEMPS POISED TO PASS OVER THE SW HALF THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES             
IN THE -25 TO -28 C RANGE /15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MEANS FOR                     
DECEMBER/...THINK THIS IS REASONABLE AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS. THIS               
BRINGS ANOTHER CHALLENGE. IF WINDS DO REMAIN UP...THEN THESE SAME               
AREAS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW              
WILL STICK WITH ADVISORY...BUT SPEED UP ONSET TO START WITH PACKAGE             
RELEASE AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR WINDS AND TEMPS FOR POSSIBLE                  
UPGRADE.                                                                        
ALSO HAS HAS BEEN NOTED IN MANY PRODUCTS...ANTICIPATING INCREASED               
ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES AND TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE AS STRONG WINDS            
OVERLOAD ALREADY BURDENED LINES AND TREES. POWER HAS ALREADY BEEN               
FLUCTUATING HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MANY             
AREAS WITH ICE STILL AROUND.                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS WILL QUICKLY KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH              
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN THROUGH ST JOE              
COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN. WHILE BEING A BIT OF A PROLONGED EVENT...WIND             
CHILLS...WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL WILL ALL LEAD TO ROUGH TRAVEL IN            
THESE AREAS. BAND STILL LOOKS TO SET UP RATHER NICELY TOWARDS MONDAY            
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND SINCE THIS HAS             
BEEN THERE FOR SEVERAL RUNS WILL BLEND WITH GRR AND DTX AND EXPAND              
LIKELY POPS OUT INTO HILLSDALE CO. WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2              
INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW.                                              
THINGS LOOK TO EASE UP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO GIVE A DRY BUT            
COLD FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE LONG TERM.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
DIFFICULT FCST PD THROUGHOUT.                                                   
VRY INTENSE SW TROUGH OVR THE GULF OF AK YDA HAS STEAMED SEWD TO NR             
COASTAL WA STATE THIS MORNING...BRINGING RARE HEAVY SNOW TO KSEA AND            
A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW INTENSE THIS SYS IS. UPSTREAM JET STREAK PER VAPOR      
LOOKS QUITE INTENSE AS WELL AND WILL AID SYS DIG INTO SWRN ROCKIES              
TUE. DOWNSTREAM CONDS REMAIN A MESS THOUGH W/INCOMING INTENSE ARCTIC            
WEDGE AND EVENTUALLY STG LL MSTR RTN OVERTOP RETREATING COLD DOME               
MID WEEK. 00Z GUIDANCE TAKEN AS A WHOLE TRENDING QUICKER W/PCPN DVLPMNT         
AND NOW INDICATING SNOW TUE AM AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN UPR             
JET SHIFTING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY TUE AFTN. PRIMARY DIFFICULTY              
LIES W/LL THERMAL RESPONSE INTO RETREATING ARCTIC WEDGE. AS NOTED               
YDA...STILL FEEL MODELS ERODING ARCTIC DOME TOO QUICKLY ESP OVR                 
DEEPER HIGH DENSITY SNOWPACK ACRS NRN PORTION OF CWA YET ON THE                 
OTHER HAND CAN`T DISCOUNT LACK OF SNOW CVR ACRS DOWNSTATE IL/IN.                
THUS IT SEEMS AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIG ICING             
EVENT PSBL TUE NIGHT AND WED ACRS NRN/NW THIRD OF CWA. PRIOR TO                 
THAT...MAINLY SNOW TUE INTO TUE EVENING BFR WARM LYR LEADS TO IP MIX            
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US 30 AND ZR SOUTH OF US 24.                                 
EJECTION OF INTENSE WRN SW LT TUE MORE DISCONCERTING GIVEN DRAMATIC             
MED RANGE TRENDS W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT SEEN IN 00Z GFS AND ITS                
ENSEMBLES. OP GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SIMILAR...BOTH IN INTENSITY AND               
QUICKER NEWD EJECTION COMPARED W/GFS ENSEMBLES YET CERTAINLY WITHIN             
THE SCOPE OF POSSIBILITIES. PRIOR FLAT OPEN WV EJECTION SEEN IN 12Z             
RUNS COMPARABLE W/LATEST WRF 4KM RUN SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. BEST               
RECOURSE AT THIS POINT IS TO WEIGHT WED PD MORE HEAVILY TWD A MIXED             
PCPN EVENT XPC PERHAPS FAR NW PER IMPLIED SFC LOW TRACK BUT DO XPC              
ADDNL SIG FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE NXT 36HRS UNTIL THIS SYS GETS                
FURTHER INTO UPR AIR NETWORK AND SAMPLED BTR. IN THE LEAST...ANOTHER            
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT LIKELY TO BE REALIZED TUE NIGHT/WED.                  
AFT THAT...PATTN RELOADS AMAZINGLY FAST W/YET ANOTHER INTENSE MID               
LAT CYCLONE FOR LT WEEK. ADDNL HEADACHES CERTAIN YET WILL SPARE ANY             
DETAILS FOR THE MOMENT GIVEN THAT TIME RANGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008/                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS.                                                                       
TAFS OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ARRIVAL OF STG COLD FRONT INTO                  
KSBN SOMETIME AROUND 7Z AND KFWA A FEW HOURS LATER. QUICK INCREASE              
IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE                   
COMMON. EXPECTED BURST OF SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW NOW MOVING KSBN                 
AND WILL CLIP KFWA AS WELL. AFTER THAT MAINLY BLOWING SNOW AND ON               
AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS TO PREVAIL UNTIL MORNING WHEN THINGS                       
TRANSITION TO MORE LAKE EFFECT AND FOCUS TO NEAR OR NORTH OF KSBN.              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR                  
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ080-081.                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>079.                
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-          
     015-016-024-025.                                                           
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-             
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
300 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.             
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO MOVING EAST. EXTREMELY              
TIGHT PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING INTO INDIANA. AT INDY            
HAD A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH AT 130 AM. RUC HAS 48 MPH WINDS AT 2,500              
FT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY DURING             
THE MORNING THERE WILL BE GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ABOVE               
ADVISORY LEVELS CENTRAL AND N AND CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE SOUTH. THE                
WINDS WILL DROP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE WAY TO WARM            
WITH THE TEMPS. THE NAM WHICH IS THE COLDEST AT HUF AT 09Z HAS 20               
THEY WILL BE 16 OR MAYBE LOWER. THE NAM 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -25                
THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CUT GUIDANCE HIGHS WAY BACK TODAY. THEY MAY             
TRY TO REBOUND SOME THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH COLD AIR SC MOVING IN               
THIS WILL SLOW THAT ALONG WITH THE SHORTEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE OF               
THE YEAR. THIS WILL PUT WIND CHILL VALUES WELL INTO ADVSRY LEVELS.              
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING THEY WILL REMAIN HIGH              
ENOUGH WITH THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE ZERO TO KEEP THE ADVSRY GOING                  
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE WEDGE OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL MOVE EAST              
OF INDIANA ON MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY WILL                
ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.                
MODEL TIME SECS FAVOR SOME CLRG ON MON AS LOW LVL MOISTURE THINS AND            
SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES ACRS THE OH VLY ALONG WITH A FLAT UPR RIDGE.              
NICE RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APRCHG CD FNT SHOULD BRING              
SOME LGT SN IN TUES PM AND CHRISTMAS EVE PERHAPS MIXED WITH RN S PER            
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS.                                         
MODELS SUGGESTING MORE PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED THAN EITHER HPC OR                
THIS MRNGS FCST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES BUT ARE                
TRENDING TOWARD A PROLONGED PD OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING            
CD FNT. SO...OVERRUNNING SECENARIO PSBL WITH RN/SN MIX SUGGESTED BY             
THICKNESSES. LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE USUALLY MORE ACCURATE             
ECMWF AND HAVE PRECIP IN ON CHRISTMAS NGT                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.                                                        
CHALLENGING FCST IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR CUT AS OF MIDNIGHT. ARCTIC              
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z WITH GUSTY WEST              
WINDS AND IMPROVING VIS CONDS INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND EVENTUALLY TO             
VFR BY 08Z. CIGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH UNRESTRICTED CIGS                
EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 09Z. MODEL GUIDANCE                  
APPEARS TOO HIGH WITH RH FCSTS IN THE LOWEST 5KFT FEET WHEN COMPARED            
TO REALITY ON SATELLITE. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN THE             
FCST INTO SUNDAY. I DO EXPECT SOME STRATOCU TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER                 
SUNRISE BUT AS MENTIONED WE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL            
PERSIST WITH GUSTS AOA 30KTS EXPECTED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7AM TO 7PM SUNDAY...                                      
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST                   
MONDAY...                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...LJ                                                                   
PUBLIC...SH                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1150 AM CST MON DEC 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LITTLE CHANGE WITH MORNING UPDATE OUTSIDE OF TWEAKING FOR CURRENT               
CONDITIONS.  TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE THE GREATEST CHALLENGE TODAY.             
MOS GUIDANCE RELATIVELY USELESS...WAY TOO WARM...SO RELIED ON                   
RUC/NAM RAW TEMPS WHICH HAVE SOME IDEA WHAT IS GOING ON.  RUC TOO               
COOL AND NAM TOO WARM TO ON TARGET DEPENDING ON SITE.  BLEND OF THE             
TWO WAS CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST SO DECIDED TO LET IT RIDE.  15Z               
SFC ANLYS PLACES RIDGE THROUGH HEART OF IA...AND AM HOPING ANY                  
INCREASE IN SELY WINDS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE INVERSION                       
SUFFICIENTLY TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS.  NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS              
AS OF YET.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/                                                           
SFC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE                
AREA TODAY WITH FLOW BECOMING ROUGHLY SOUTHERLY BY LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH                  
PLAINS BUT THIS WILL NOT ENTER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z.                         
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE AHEAD OF THIS                 
FEATURE. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES.             
WITH CAA SHUT OFF AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING EXPECT NEUTRAL             
TO WEAK WAA FLOW. HOWEVER INSOLATION IS LOW ON ONE OF THE SHORTEST              
DAYS OF THE YEAR...CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING ESPECIALLY IN THE             
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY WE HAVE             
A GOOD SNOW PACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS A            
FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR OUT OF RESPECT FOR LIGHT WAA AS              
WINDS COME AROUND...BUT WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND HAVE STILL               
STAYED WELL BELOW MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE CWA.                                   
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WL BE STRONG TONIGHT AS                   
INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS THROUGH THE REGION.  ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL               
EXPANDING ACRS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS DEEPER SATURATION OCCURS WITH            
PCPN MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST.  WL SEE DECENT LIFT IN DENDRITIC ZONE            
WITH GOOD SNOW GROWTH. EXPECT TO SEE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE               
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WHERE             
2 TO 4 WILL BE COMMON NEAR THE MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK ON                  
TUESDAY. HAVE STAYED BACK FROM ADVISORY AT THIS POINT AS AMOUNTS                
GENERALLY UNDER CRITERIA AS THE SHOT OF HEAVIER PCPN REMAINS                    
PROGRESSIVE.  MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AFTER SUNRISE BUT              
IN GENERAL...THE MAJORITY OF BETTER LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND                
EAST.  HOWEVER...INVERTED SFC TROF WL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE WITH                
WEAKER LIFT OCCURRING THROUGH TUESDAY.  WL CONTINUE TO SEE THE                  
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING DURING THE DAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS              
WL BE LIMITED. ANTICIPATE LOWS TONIGHT TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET            
WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS...WAA AND CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE                  
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.  A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WL BEGIN              
TO PULL INTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.  A SFC WAVE WL FORM IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO A                
SCOOT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.  EXPECT FORCING FROM THIS             
SYSTEM TO PICK UP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY            
MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MIDDAY.  SNOW IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY ACRS              
THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND PERSIST               
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY                     
ACCUMULATIONS.  00Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A POSSIBLE 4 TO 7 INCH               
BAND ACRS OUR SOUTHEAST THAT MAY REQUIRE A WATCH IN SUBSEQUENT                  
FORECASTS. WL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF COLD AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WAA TAKES OVER QUICKLY ONCE MORE.  ANOTHER                 
THREAT OF PCPN WL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT                 
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST US.  TEMPERATURES ARE NOW                   
EXPECTED TO RISE ENOUGH TO HAVE THE THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW BY FRIDAY            
AS READINGS APPROACH OR CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...22/18Z                                                              
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH               
INITIAL EVENT OF CONCERN TONIGHT.  MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE PREVALENT                
AFTER 03Z WITH AREAS OF SNOW DEVELOPING...MAINLY WITH IFR/MVFR                  
VSBYS.  MCW/ALO SHOULD SEE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AND BEST SNOW                  
CHANCES.  MVFR CIGS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IFR...ARE THEN                  
EXPECTED TO FORM TUE MORNING WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER                
ROUND OF SNOW.  CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING FAIRLY LOW WITH             
THIS ROUND HOWEVER SO HAVE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF FORECASTS FOR THE TIME            
BEING.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LEE/SMALL                                                 
LONG TERM...COGIL                                                               
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1125 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATED 22/06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                          
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT STILL SHOWING UP ON                  
SLATER PROFILER AT THIS TIME...AND ALTHOUGH LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW             
THE MIXED LAYER ONLY TO BE ABOUT 2 KFT...WINDS HAVE BEEN PLENTY                 
STRONG AND GUSTY SINCE LATE MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW            
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY                 
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG WINDS. DESPITE ASOS OBS MAINLY JUST ABOVE            
1/4SM VSBY...REPORTS FROM COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA                 
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT              
00Z. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS             
WAS AND STILL IS COMMON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE AFTER SUNSET AS                
INVERSION LOWERS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLIDES EAST              
OVER WEST-CENTRAL IOWA BY 12Z.                                                  
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE REALLY THE MAIN STORY FOR                
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO             
AND SETTLING BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 20 BELOW TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH              
THE WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES 30 BELOW TO 40 BELOW NORTH OF             
HIGHWAY 92 THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY SLIGHT WARMER SOUTH             
OF THERE. HAVE EXPANDED WIND CHILL WARNING SOUTH TO HIGHWAY 92 TO               
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE WIND DIMINISHING UNDER 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT                
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES TO GO AROUND 4 AM.                   
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE STORM SYSTEMS ON              
TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ROLLER COASTER              
RIDE FOR TEMPS.  RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER MONDAY...VERY COLD BUT               
NOT MUCH WIND AND NO PRECIP.  BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF              
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ON BOARD OVER THE SW U.S. THE FLOW OVER               
THE CENTRAL CONUS BECOMES STRONGLY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY                    
TUESDAY.  THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL            
AND SOUTHERN IOWA.  MONDAY NIGHT MINS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z              
AND WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MOVE THE TUESDAY             
SYSTEM THROUGH AS AN OPEN LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE             
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA.  BOTH MODELS ALSO                 
PRINT OUT IMPRESSIVE QPF TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO IS WAY MORE                   
AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.                
HOWEVER...WITH THIS KIND OF FLOW WE CAN EASILY GET HEAVIER SNOW AND             
MORE MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM.  I HAVE BEEFED UP POPS AND               
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERED THE LIGHT               
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY.  SOME HINT OF A TROWAL WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE            
SOUTHEAST SO SNOW AMOUNTS HIGHER THERE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.                 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH CHRISTMAS THOUGH I MADE SOME               
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.                                
AS FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH            
THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW.  THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS HUGE             
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTING              
UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THIS SCENARIO PUTS CENTRAL IOWA IN ABOUT              
36 HOURS OF SNOW.  THE EURO IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER AND MUCH                   
SHARPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH DISPLACES THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO             
THE EAST AND GIVES US ALMOST NOTHING FOR PRECIP.  WE WILL ALSO NEED             
TO CONSIDER MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WARMER AIR WILL BE IN              
PLACE AND ICE WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.  WITH THE KIND OF                     
DISCREPANCIES OUT THERE I PUT LOW POPS IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH                   
SATURDAY.  BETTER DEFINITION WILL COME AS MODELS CONVERGE SOME.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...22/06Z                                                              
WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN LATE THIS EVENING AND REDUCTIONS IN                        
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW HAVE ENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BUILD INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY AND CONTINUED DIMINISHING            
WINDS. A BAND OF WAA SNOW SHOULD LIFT INTO THE STATE MONDAY EVENING             
AND HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KFOD/KDSM WITH -SN AT 03Z            
MONDAY EVENING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK                
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-                      
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-                  
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-                  
MARSHALL -PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-                   
WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.                                          
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAMS-APPANOOSE-                  
CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-                
WAYNE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOYER                                                              
AVIATION...KINNEY                                                               
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
626 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.UPDATED 22/00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AND WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS...            
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT STILL SHOWING UP ON                  
SLATER PROFILER AT THIS TIME...AND ALTHOUGH LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW             
THE MIXED LAYER ONLY TO BE ABOUT 2 KFT...WINDS HAVE BEEN PLENTY                 
STRONG AND GUSTY SINCE LATE MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW            
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY                 
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG WINDS. DESPITE ASOS OBS MAINLY JUST ABOVE            
1/4SM VSBY...REPORTS FROM COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA                 
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT              
00Z. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS             
WAS AND STILL IS COMMON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE AFTER SUNSET AS                
INVERSION LOWERS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLIDES EAST              
OVER WEST-CENTRAL IOWA BY 12Z.                                                  
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE REALLY THE MAIN STORY FOR                
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO             
AND SETTLING BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 20 BELOW TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH              
THE WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES 30 BELOW TO 40 BELOW NORTH OF             
HIGHWAY 92 THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY SLIGHT WARMER SOUTH             
OF THERE. HAVE EXPANDED WIND CHILL WARNING SOUTH TO HIGHWAY 92 TO               
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE WIND DIMINISHING UNDER 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT                
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES TO GO AROUND 4 AM.                   
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE STORM SYSTEMS ON              
TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ROLLER COASTER              
RIDE FOR TEMPS.  RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER MONDAY...VERY COLD BUT               
NOT MUCH WIND AND NO PRECIP.  BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF              
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ON BOARD OVER THE SW U.S. THE FLOW OVER               
THE CENTRAL CONUS BECOMES STRONGLY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY                    
TUESDAY.  THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL            
AND SOUTHERN IOWA.  MONDAY NIGHT MINS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z              
AND WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MOVE THE TUESDAY             
SYSTEM THROUGH AS AN OPEN LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE             
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA.  BOTH MODELS ALSO                 
PRINT OUT IMPRESSIVE QPF TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO IS WAY MORE                   
AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.                
HOWEVER...WITH THIS KIND OF FLOW WE CAN EASILY GET HEAVIER SNOW AND             
MORE MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM.  I HAVE BEEFED UP POPS AND               
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERED THE LIGHT               
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY.  SOME HINT OF A TROWAL WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE            
SOUTHEAST SO SNOW AMOUNTS HIGHER THERE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.                 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH CHRISTMAS THOUGH I MADE SOME               
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.                                
AS FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH            
THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW.  THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS HUGE             
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTING              
UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THIS SCENARIO PUTS CENTRAL IOWA IN ABOUT              
36 HOURS OF SNOW.  THE EURO IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER AND MUCH                   
SHARPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH DISPLACES THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO             
THE EAST AND GIVES US ALMOST NOTHING FOR PRECIP.  WE WILL ALSO NEED             
TO CONSIDER MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WARMER AIR WILL BE IN              
PLACE AND ICE WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.  WITH THE KIND OF                     
DISCREPANCIES OUT THERE I PUT LOW POPS IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH                   
SATURDAY.  BETTER DEFINITION WILL COME AS MODELS CONVERGE SOME.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...22/00Z                                                              
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS. VISIBILITIES               
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT KMCW. HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO IOWA WITH A CLEARING SKY FROM MID TO LATE              
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK                
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-                      
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-                  
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-                  
MARSHALL -PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-                   
WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.                                          
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAMS-APPANOOSE-                  
CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-                
WAYNE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOYER                                                              
AVIATION...KINNEY                                                               
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
530 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.UPDATED 22/00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                          
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT STILL SHOWING UP ON                  
SLATER PROFILER AT THIS TIME...AND ALTHOUGH LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW             
THE MIXED LAYER ONLY TO BE ABOUT 2 KFT...WINDS HAVE BEEN PLENTY                 
STRONG AND GUSTY SINCE LATE MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW            
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY                 
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG WINDS. DESPITE ASOS OBS MAINLY JUST ABOVE            
1/4SM VSBY...REPORTS FROM COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA                 
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT              
00Z. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS             
WAS AND STILL IS COMMON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE AFTER SUNSET AS                
INVERSION LOWERS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLIDES EAST              
OVER WEST-CENTRAL IOWA BY 12Z.                                                  
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE REALLY THE MAIN STORY FOR                
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO             
AND SETTLING BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 20 BELOW TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH              
THE WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES 30 BELOW TO 40 BELOW NORTH OF             
HIGHWAY 92 THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY SLIGHT WARMER SOUTH             
OF THERE. HAVE EXPANDED WIND CHILL WARNING SOUTH TO HIGHWAY 92 TO               
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE WIND DIMINISHING UNDER 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT                
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES TO GO AROUND 4 AM.                   
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE STORM SYSTEMS ON              
TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ROLLER COASTER              
RIDE FOR TEMPS.  RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER MONDAY...VERY COLD BUT               
NOT MUCH WIND AND NO PRECIP.  BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF              
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ON BOARD OVER THE SW U.S. THE FLOW OVER               
THE CENTRAL CONUS BECOMES STRONGLY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY                    
TUESDAY.  THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL            
AND SOUTHERN IOWA.  MONDAY NIGHT MINS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z              
AND WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MOVE THE TUESDAY             
SYSTEM THROUGH AS AN OPEN LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE             
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA.  BOTH MODELS ALSO                 
PRINT OUT IMPRESSIVE QPF TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO IS WAY MORE                   
AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.                
HOWEVER...WITH THIS KIND OF FLOW WE CAN EASILY GET HEAVIER SNOW AND             
MORE MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM.  I HAVE BEEFED UP POPS AND               
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERED THE LIGHT               
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY.  SOME HINT OF A TROWAL WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE            
SOUTHEAST SO SNOW AMOUNTS HIGHER THERE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.                 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH CHRISTMAS THOUGH I MADE SOME               
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.                                
AS FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH            
THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW.  THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS HUGE             
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTING              
UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THIS SCENARIO PUTS CENTRAL IOWA IN ABOUT              
36 HOURS OF SNOW.  THE EURO IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER AND MUCH                   
SHARPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH DISPLACES THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO             
THE EAST AND GIVES US ALMOST NOTHING FOR PRECIP.  WE WILL ALSO NEED             
TO CONSIDER MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WARMER AIR WILL BE IN              
PLACE AND ICE WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.  WITH THE KIND OF                     
DISCREPANCIES OUT THERE I PUT LOW POPS IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH                   
SATURDAY.  BETTER DEFINITION WILL COME AS MODELS CONVERGE SOME.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...22/00Z                                                              
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS. VISIBILITIES               
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT KMCW. HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO IOWA WITH A CLEARING SKY FROM MID TO LATE              
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR                                   
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-                 
GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-              
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.                                     
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR                
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-                     
CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-                  
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAMA-                  
WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                 
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLACK HAWK-                  
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-                 
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-                
MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-                 
WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOYER                                                              
AVIATION...KINNEY                                                               
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
330 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT STILL SHOWING UP ON                  
SLATER PROFILER AT THIS TIME...AND ALTHOUGH LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW             
THE MIXED LAYER ONLY TO BE ABOUT 2 KFT...WINDS HAVE BEEN PLENTY                 
STRONG AND GUSTY SINCE LATE MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW            
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY                 
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG WINDS. DESPITE ASOS OBS MAINLY JUST ABOVE            
1/4SM VSBY...REPORTS FROM COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA                 
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT              
00Z. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS             
WAS AND STILL IS COMMON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE AFTER SUNSET AS                
INVERSION LOWERS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLIDES EAST              
OVER WEST-CENTRAL IOWA BY 12Z.                                                  
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE REALLY THE MAIN STORY FOR                
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO             
AND SETTLING BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 20 BELOW TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH              
THE WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES 30 BELOW TO 40 BELOW NORTH OF             
HIGHWAY 92 THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY SLIGHT WARMER SOUTH             
OF THERE. HAVE EXPANDED WIND CHILL WARNING SOUTH TO HIGHWAY 92 TO               
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE WIND DIMINISHING UNDER 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT                
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES TO GO AROUND 4 AM.                   
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE STORM SYSTEMS ON              
TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ROLLER COASTER              
RIDE FOR TEMPS.  RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER MONDAY...VERY COLD BUT               
NOT MUCH WIND AND NO PRECIP.  BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF              
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ON BOARD OVER THE SW U.S. THE FLOW OVER               
THE CENTRAL CONUS BECOMES STRONGLY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY                    
TUESDAY.  THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL            
AND SOUTHERN IOWA.  MONDAY NIGHT MINS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z              
AND WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MOVE THE TUESDAY             
SYSTEM THROUGH AS AN OPEN LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE             
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA.  BOTH MODELS ALSO                 
PRINT OUT IMPRESSIVE QPF TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO IS WAY MORE                   
AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.                
HOWEVER...WITH THIS KIND OF FLOW WE CAN EASILY GET HEAVIER SNOW AND             
MORE MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM.  I HAVE BEEFED UP POPS AND               
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERED THE LIGHT               
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY.  SOME HINT OF A TROWAL WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE            
SOUTHEAST SO SNOW AMOUNTS HIGHER THERE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.                 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH CHRISTMAS THOUGH I MADE SOME               
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.                                
AS FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH            
THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW.  THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS HUGE             
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTING              
UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THIS SCENARIO PUTS CENTRAL IOWA IN ABOUT              
36 HOURS OF SNOW.  THE EURO IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER AND MUCH                   
SHARPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH DISPLACES THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO             
THE EAST AND GIVES US ALMOST NOTHING FOR PRECIP.  WE WILL ALSO NEED             
TO CONSIDER MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WARMER AIR WILL BE IN              
PLACE AND ICE WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.  WITH THE KIND OF                     
DISCREPANCIES OUT THERE I PUT LOW POPS IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH                   
SATURDAY.  BETTER DEFINITION WILL COME AS MODELS CONVERGE SOME.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...21/18Z                                                              
WINDS HAVE INCREASED RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS MAX SUBSIDENCE ALOFT MOVES            
OVER CENTRAL IOWA. A SOLID 40 TO 50 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TOP             
OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS THROUGH                 
21-22Z. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED EITHER FROM A THIN LAYER OF                
STRATUS OR FROM BLSN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS                   
EVENING. VSBY WILL BE LOCALLY REDUCED TO 1SM OR LESS AT NRN TAF                 
SITES FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY AT SOUTHERN SITES.              
THE WIND DIMINISHES AND BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH OVERNIGHT               
AND AFT 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFT 03-05Z.                            
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR                                   
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-                 
GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-              
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.                                     
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR                
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-                     
CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-                  
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAMA-                  
WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                 
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLACK HAWK-                  
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-                 
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-                
MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-                 
WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOYER                                                     
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1043 AM MST MON DEC 22 2008                                                     
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM MST MON DEC 22 2008/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
219 AM MST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED TROUGH-RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS            
THE CONUS WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE CWA. NEXT                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA WAS DIGGING INTO               
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC...RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM KVTN TO             
KTUL. NEITHER THE GFS  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SNOW CHANCES               
AND AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                      
TODAY-TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT              
NET RESULT OF THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE VERY WEAK AS SHORT WAVE                  
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE DURING THE MORNING                     
HOURS...WITH Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATING  NET FORCING FOR ASCENT                 
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS PRESENT                  
MAINLY BTWN 15-21Z OVERALL STABILITY PROFILE LOOKS RATHER STABLE AND            
WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM...IT SEEMS             
DOUBTFUL THAT FORCING WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF                    
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE A            
FINAL CALL IF OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THAT. H5 RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT            
TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z WITH 110KT H3 JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE AREA             
OVERNIGHT. CWA NOT REALLY IN FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF THE JET THROUGH              
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT AND RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL                      
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE                
DURING THE DAY...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO STABLE AND DRY FOR ANY                   
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. OTHER                
CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS                 
TODAY. POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN AND ABOVE             
THE INVERSION LEVEL...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40KTS AT               
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AVG MIXED LAYER                
SPEEDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE TODAY JUMP UP TO THE 26-30KT RANGE               
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY AND WHILE SOME QUESTION IF GUSTS WILL            
REACH THE 45 MPH THRESHOLD...LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WINDS             
TO SUSTAIN AROUND 30 MPH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. FINDING THE             
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE DIFFICULT AS IT WILL              
BE TIED TO POSITION OF WARM FRONT. OVERNIGHT RUC HAS JUMPED AROUND              
WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD. NAM HAS                   
GENERALLY HAD FRONT SOMEWHERE ALONG A SYF TO HLC LINE THROUGH THE               
DAY AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED THAT IDEA...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE A                    
LITTLE LOW ON EXPANDING ADVISORY MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN                        
INTERSTATE 70. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY AS CLOUD                   
COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.              
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH                 
THE LOW 20S WHILE TO THE SOUTH MID 30S LOOK POSSIBLE.                           
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SNOW                
CHANCES AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. H7 FRONTAL               
ZONE STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE MORNING. MESOSCALE               
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE               
NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS             
WEAK OR SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE MORNING. THINK INITIAL FORCING WILL               
LIKELY WORK MORE TO GET THINGS SATURATED...AND MORE WIDESPREAD                  
PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE                
AREA AFTER 00Z WED. APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD WHERE LARGE SCALE DEEP               
FORCING AS INDICATED ON H7-H3 DIV Q FIELDS LINES UP WELL WITH                   
FRONTAL ZONE AT THE SAME TIME FRONTOGENESIS VALUES PEAK ACROSS THE              
AREA. STABILITY PROFILES ALSO APPEAR TO BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF A                 
STRONG BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AFTER 00Z...WITH                
EPV* VALUES EITHER NEGATIVE OR ONLY SLIGHTLY POSITIVE ABOVE FRONTAL             
ZONE. GFS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN APPEARS TO BE THE                
MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNTS.              
NAM SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO FORCING...BUT GENERALLY LESS IMPRESSIVE             
WITH INSTABILITY BUT STILL HAS A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA               
UNDER LIGHT SNOW TOMORROW. THINK CONFIDENCE IS THERE TO UP POPS IN              
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THINK RATHER QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM             
WILL LIMIT OVERALL AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH IF GFS INSTABILITY FORECAST               
VERIFIES COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. FOR NOW THINK                  
AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE APPEAR REASONABLE.                                
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SHOULD END             
WELL BEFORE 12Z WED AS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA BEHIND SHORT             
WAVE TROUGH. FLOW ALOFT  GENERALLY IS ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE                 
PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WED                    
NIGHT...BUT SOUNDINGS APPEAR SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND LOOK TO DRY AND             
STABLE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING             
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AM CONCERNED NEW SNOWFALL MAY               
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL ONLY                
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1042 AM MST MON DEC 22 2008                                                     
FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE              
STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE                                 
AREA...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 40MPH.                 
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING BUT BEGIN TO SUBSIDE                   
OVERNIGHT. LATER IN THE PERIOD AN APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKS TO LOWER             
CIGS TO MVFR BY 15Z.                                                            
GJG                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR                   
     KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.                                                
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ091-092.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
424 AM MST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
219 AM MST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED TROUGH-RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS            
THE CONUS WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE CWA. NEXT                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA WAS DIGGING INTO               
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC...RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM KVTN TO             
KTUL. NEITHER THE GFS  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SNOW CHANCES               
AND AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                      
TODAY-TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT              
NET RESULT OF THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE VERY WEAK AS SHORT WAVE                  
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE DURING THE MORNING                     
HOURS...WITH Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATING  NET FORCING FOR ASCENT                 
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS PRESENT                  
MAINLY BTWN 15-21Z OVERALL STABILITY PROFILE LOOKS RATHER STABLE AND            
WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM...IT SEEMS             
DOUBTFUL THAT FORCING WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF                    
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE A            
FINAL CALL IF OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THAT. H5 RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT            
TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z WITH 110KT H3 JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE AREA             
OVERNIGHT. CWA NOT REALLY IN FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF THE JET THROUGH              
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT AND RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL                      
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE                
DURING THE DAY...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO STABLE AND DRY FOR ANY                   
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. OTHER                
CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS                 
TODAY. POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN AND ABOVE             
THE INVERSION LEVEL...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40KTS AT               
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AVG MIXED LAYER                
SPEEDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE TODAY JUMP UP TO THE 26-30KT RANGE               
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY AND WHILE SOME QUESTION IF GUSTS WILL            
REACH THE 45 MPH THRESHOLD...LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WINDS             
TO SUSTAIN AROUND 30 MPH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. FINDING THE             
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE DIFFICULT AS IT WILL              
BE TIED TO POSITION OF WARM FRONT. OVERNIGHT RUC HAS JUMPED AROUND              
WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD. NAM HAS                   
GENERALLY HAD FRONT SOMEWHERE ALONG A SYF TO HLC LINE THROUGH THE               
DAY AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED THAT IDEA...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE A                    
LITTLE LOW ON EXPANDING ADVISORY MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN                        
INTERSTATE 70. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY AS CLOUD                   
COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.              
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH                 
THE LOW 20S WHILE TO THE SOUTH MID 30S LOOK POSSIBLE.                           
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SNOW                
CHANCES AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. H7 FRONTAL               
ZONE STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE MORNING. MESOSCALE               
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE               
NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS             
WEAK OR SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE MORNING. THINK INITIAL FORCING WILL               
LIKELY WORK MORE TO GET THINGS SATURATED...AND MORE WIDESPREAD                  
PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE                
AREA AFTER 00Z WED. APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD WHERE LARGE SCALE DEEP               
FORCING AS INDICATED ON H7-H3 DIV Q FIELDS LINES UP WELL WITH                   
FRONTAL ZONE AT THE SAME TIME FRONTOGENESIS VALUES PEAK ACROSS THE              
AREA. STABILITY PROFILES ALSO APPEAR TO BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF A                 
STRONG BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AFTER 00Z...WITH                
EPV* VALUES EITHER NEGATIVE OR ONLY SLIGHTLY POSITIVE ABOVE FRONTAL             
ZONE. GFS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN APPEARS TO BE THE                
MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNTS.              
NAM SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO FORCING...BUT GENERALLY LESS IMPRESSIVE             
WITH INSTABILITY BUT STILL HAS A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA               
UNDER LIGHT SNOW TOMORROW. THINK CONFIDENCE IS THERE TO UP POPS IN              
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THINK RATHER QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM             
WILL LIMIT OVERALL AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH IF GFS INSTABILITY FORECAST               
VERIFIES COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. FOR NOW THINK                  
AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE APPEAR REASONABLE.                                
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SHOULD END             
WELL BEFORE 12Z WED AS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA BEHIND SHORT             
WAVE TROUGH. FLOW ALOFT  GENERALLY IS ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE                 
PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WED                    
NIGHT...BUT SOUNDINGS APPEAR SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND LOOK TO DRY AND             
STABLE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING             
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AM CONCERNED NEW SNOWFALL MAY               
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL ONLY                
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
414 AM MST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH              
PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WINDS               
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MAY BE DELAYED                     
SOMEWHAT AS CLOUD COVER LIMITS HEATING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT              
GLD WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 28KTS LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THE                  
AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS BEGINNING TO HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF             
-SN/STRATUS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY RAOBS              
WOULD SUGGEST AIRMASS OVER AREA VERY DRY AND THIS IS                            
UNLIKELY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR MOSAICS AND 12Z                   
RAOBS AND MODIFY TAFS IF NEEDED.                                                
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST            
     /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.                    
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING              
     FOR COZ091-092.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
329 AM CST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING AND SNOW CHANCES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO TEMPERATURES INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                  
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE             
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE             
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE             
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY THIS EVENING CAUSING LOW PRESSURE TO            
DEEPEN RAPIDLY IN EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL FORCE A TIGHT PRESSURE            
GRADIENT INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH                     
MIDNIGHT. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO AROUND 820MB               
SHOULD PROVIDE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS TO MAKE IT WELL INTO WIND                    
ADVISORY CRITERIA OR 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.                     
EVALUATION USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND FSL RUC GUIDANCE HAS US WELL            
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY              
FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. DAY SHIFT OR EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO                
PULL IT AS NEEDED EARLIER, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME SURFACE WINDS OFF               
THE DECK STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE IN THE EARLY EVENING.                             
THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION            
AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT, THEN QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA              
BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES               
WILL BE IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH MAY BE AN INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE ON                
TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF GUIDANCE HAS AROUND .01 QPF WHILE THE GFS HAS                
AROUND 1/4 INCH. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH DOWN TO 20 POPS                
SOUTH. AT THIS TIME WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND ONLY MINOR               
ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT PLAN ON A SNOW ADVISORY.                                   
FOR TEMPS TODAY WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 40             
SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD BE              
VERY TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WINDS DECREASE BUT SHOULD STAY            
WELL MIXED INTO EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. LOWS COULD BE VERY MILD                  
ESPECIALLY EAST. HAVE WARMED GOING OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW NOTCHES INTO            
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.                                                           
ON TUESDAY A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND              
TO NEAR DODGE CITY BY 4 TO 5 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH OR             
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH. MID CLOUDS INCREASE WITH SOME VIRGA SHOWERS.            
HIGHS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR 50 AT                    
MEDICINE LODGE. HAYS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID 30S BEFORE THE FRONT                
GOES THROUGH.                                                                   
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS              
OF 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY MORNING. LOWS                
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD FALL TO THE                  
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.                                        
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KS FRIDAY AND                
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE PREVIOUS             
SYSTEM WILL HAVE SHUNTED THE DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST. SO                 
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.                                         
A SLOW WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT            
WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF TO DEVELOP               
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THIS PATTERN            
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH JAN 3. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW, PRECIPITATION                
CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO NIL.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KTS                
SHOULD DEVELOP BY 16-18Z AT THE TAF SITES.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  33  28  45  14 /   0   0   0  30                                           
GCK  33  26  41  12 /   0   0   0  40                                           
EHA  39  27  47  15 /   0   0   0  20                                           
LBL  36  28  47  17 /   0   0   0  20                                           
HYS  26  21  32   9 /   0   0  10  60                                           
P28  30  26  49  21 /   0   0   0  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST                   
/11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-                     
084>090.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN06/24                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1040 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
230 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                      
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                             
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDS              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE UPSTREAM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                  
INDICATES A DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST KANSAS.               
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS               
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE            
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT            
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH             
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.                 
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL POTENTIAL              
AS WELL AS POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                        
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN                 
ZONES DUE TO A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHICH                
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE BEST               
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST FLURRIES                
SOUTH OF THAT AREA. FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z          
SO WILL LEAVE FLURRIES OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES.                                
FOR THE SNOW EVENT ON TUESDAY...DECIDED TO ADD A SMALL AREA OF                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND            
MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE AFTER 06Z                
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE TUESDAY EVENT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK BUT LEFT POPS             
AT SLIGHT CHANCE.  BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT LEAVING             
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN TO HAVE A SMALL AREA OF                 
FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SOUTH ZONES OTHERWISE WILL REMOVE POPS. ALL               
OTHER PERIODS...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY WITH NIL              
POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.                                                         
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN QUESTION DUE TO WIND SPEED BEHIND THE                  
EXITING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE WORST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE              
ABOUT 12 MPH OR JUST ABOVE THE CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE             
AND AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS MAY BE LOWER IF THE GFS WINDS            
ARE RIGHT. LOWER WINDS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE RUC. THERE MAY BE A            
FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE BORDERLINE OR JUST               
ABOVE CRITERIA. THE POTENTIAL GOES AWAY QUICKLY AFTER 12Z.                      
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE HELD UP SOME BY INCREASING CLOUDS AS             
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MINS ARE FORECAST NEAR OR JUST BELOW             
ZERO. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL HELP BRING SOME WARMER AIR               
BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO WITH SINGLE              
DIGIT READINGS. MINS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY NIGHT WITH                    
INCREASING CLOUDS. READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. TUESDAY NIGHT               
LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME POSSIBLE             
SNOW ON THE GROUND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE              
TEENS SUNDAY WARMING TO THE 20S MONDAY/TUESDAY.                                 
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WESTERLY FLOW WILL             
DOMINATE THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES                
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE GFS                 
BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A WINTER STORM                
WHILE THE EUROPEAN TAKES AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE                
FORECAST DRY AND WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS TO GET RESOLUTION ON               
THIS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO ABOVE NORMAL 40S WITH                
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING. MINS WILL RISE BACK TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE               
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S.                                
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1040 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT               
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW                 
DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED WITH TRANSIENT MVFR AT KGLD AROUND 05Z. LOW            
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM KGLD/KMCK TAF               
SITES AFTER 06-07Z. A SECONDARY CONCERN REMAINS PATCHY FOG                      
DEVELOPING IN THE KMCK AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM REMAIN LARGE             
LATE THIS EVENING LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY CROSSING              
FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY THRESHOLDS AT KMCK WITH NO INCLUSION AT THIS               
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
134 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RECEIVED PIREP OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KBTR. BASED ON THE                    
REPORT AND AN EXAMINATION OF RUC13 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THERE              
IS 10-20 DEGREES AND 15-20 KNOTS OF SHEAR FROM ABOUT 300 FEET TO                
100 FEET AGL ON APPROACH TO RUNWAY 4L. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR                     
INCLUSION IN THE TAF...BUT WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED LLWS THROUGH                 
23Z AT KBTR ONLY. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS HAVE SLIGHTLY STRONGER                    
PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS...AND RADAR WIND ESIMATES FROM VAD WIND                
PROFILE AT KMSY AND KLIX SUGGESTS LOWER WINDS IN THE 100-2000 FEET              
AGL LAYER...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE LLWS AT KMCB...KMSY...AND KGPT. 22              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED GRIDS AND PRODUCTS TO ELIMINATE MORNING WORDING AND TO                  
REFINE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH TONIGHT. WAS               
CONTEMPLATING ISSUING A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE                 
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE 26 DEGREES              
OR LOWER FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO.                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS              
INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS 13-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25                 
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 22-23Z...AND AT KMSY               
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY.                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SE AT 30 MPH THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE                
OUT OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL                
SETTLE NEAR SOUTH TEXAS AND A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO FORM AS                     
BAROCLINCITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST GULF. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY                
MOVE NE ALONG ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WED.                           
PROBLEM AREAS IN THE FCAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND THIS TRANSITION                  
FROM A COLD DRY AIR MASS TO A QUICKLY WARMING MOISTENING ONE. AS                
MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD WITH THE SFC LOW LATE MONDAY...SOME LIGHT              
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE MOST WESTERN PERIPHERAL PORTION                
OF THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 8K` AND SHOULD BECOME DEEP                 
ENOUGH BY 2AM TUE MORNING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT THAT                    
LEVEL. MEANTIME THE SFC TEMP WILL BE IN THE MID 30S OVER EXTREME                
SOUTHERN MISS. THIS IS NOT THE ISSUE...BUT THE DP TEMP IS. DP                   
TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING IN THE TEENS AS RAIN STARTS FALLING THROUGH               
THE MID LEVELS AT 45-50 DEGREES F. AS THE RAIN FALLS INTO THE DRY               
AIR NEAR THE SFC VIRGA WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING AND                   
WARMING OF THESE LOWER LEVELS.                                                  
SINCE THE LIGHT RAIN FALLS THROUGH AIR AROUND 50 DEGREES BEFORE                 
FALLING INTO THE COLDER AIR IT WILL CAUSE A VERTICAL WARM AND                   
MOISTURE ADVECTION PROCESS. THIS WILL CAUSE WET BULB COOLING                    
THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MAY EVEN CAUSE THE TEMP TO FALL               
TO FREEZING AT THE TOP OF THE BL. THIS PROCESS IS SO QUICK TO                   
MODIFY THE DRY COOL AIR THAT A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF AN ICE PELLET               
MIXING WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS                 
WILL BE BETWEEN 3AM AND 5AM TUESDAY MORNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN               
MISS AND SOME AREAS ALONG THE LA BORDER. HAZARDOUS DRIVING                      
CONDITIONS OR ANY OTHER PROBLEMS ARE NOT GOING TO ACCOMPANY THIS                
EVENT.                                                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OUT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER LA BY                 
WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF               
THE ROCKIES. THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NW IN THE FORM OF A STRONGLY           
INVERTED TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS FOR A FEW DAYS                     
STARTING THU. NOW FOR THE WET STUFF. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE                         
DISTURBANCE WILL RUSH THROUGH THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SW FLOW.                  
SINCE THE OLD FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT WITH                
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS WILL HELP SHOWERS AND A FEW                       
THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT STARTING THU NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH                  
FRI NIGHT. PLACEMENT WILL BE THE VARIABLE TO NAIL DOWN OVER THE                 
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT CURRENTLY THIS LOOKS TO BE FROM SE LA THROUGH                 
NORTHERN ALA. THEN THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN TO FORCE                 
ALL THE MESS OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND. IT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM              
AND POSSIBLY WET CHRISTMAS DAY.                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                              
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH KMCB AT 0737Z AND KBTR AROUND 0840Z.            
CURRENT PROGRESS IS MEASURED AT ESE 30KT AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH                
KASD AROUND 1030Z...KMSY AROUND 1135Z AND KGPT AROUND 1145Z. A 25NM             
WIDE BAND OF BROKEN -SHRA PRECEDES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH VERY                
LITTLE INDICATED AFTER WINDSHIFT. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SHOW A NARROW             
BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS JUST BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR HIGH CEILINGS AND             
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KAEX-KTVR                
LINE. THIS IS INDICATED IN TAFS MAINLY AFTER 14Z.  24                           
MARINE...                                                                       
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AFTER 12Z FROM WEST TO                
EAST AND SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS             
BEFORE 18Z. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO ONSET SHORTLY AFTER              
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION            
BEFORE LEVELING OFF SOME MONDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                 
WINDS AND SEAS WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS TODAY INTO THIS                 
EVENING. BAROCLINIC RETURN EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW            
TO MAINTAIN HIGH SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY               
AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE MODERATING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT            
COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE NORTH GULF WATERS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY               
NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 24                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
MCB  47  26  41  32 /  20   0  10  20                                           
BTR  55  29  45  37 /  20   0  10  20                                           
MSY  56  34  45  42 /  30   0  10  20                                           
GPT  55  31  47  38 /  30  10  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ066.                     
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ550-555-570-             
     575.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530.                    
MS...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ555-570-575.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1007 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
INTENSE NOREASTER WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED                          
BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
HEADLINES REMAIN IN TACK. JUST ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS        
AND THIS IS EXPLAINED BELOW.                                                    
UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZFP TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS CWA WIDE AS SNOINCR           
OF UP TO 2"/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. THINKING HERE IS THAT THE HUL-MLT          
TO GNR COULD EASILY SEE 2+ FT BY MIDDAY MONDAY. INTERIOR DOWNEAST SHOULD        
ROLL IN W/14-20 INCHES AND THE COAST 10-16 INCHES. ADDED SOME RAIN AND SLEET    
FOR THE COAST AS WARMER AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE COAST PER THE LATEST     
RUC AS IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS ATTM. NORTHERN MAINE     
SHOULD COME W/A RANGE OF 16-22 INCHES BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN BY MID AFTERNOON. 
HAD TO INCREASE WINDS UP ALONG THE COAST AS GUSTS HIT 50+ KTS RIGHT ALONG       
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.                       
NOREASTER STILL ON TRACK TO CREATE A BLIZZARD FOR THE ENTIRE REGION             
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC STATES THIS                
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN SOUTH OF            
MID BY MIDNIGHT. MODELS COMING TOGETHER WITH THE NOREASTER TRACKING             
JUST INLAND THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS TRACK WILL PREVENT                  
UPPER DRY SLOT MOVING INTO DOWNEAST SO WILL UP SNOW AMOUNTS THERE.              
AS THIS LOW BOMBS FROM A 992MB CENTER THIS AFTERNOON TO 960 LOW                 
BY 12 MON, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE A BLIZZARD WITH HEAVY             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. BIGGEST IMPACT ACROSS                    
DOWNEAST WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW RATES BETWEEN 2 TO 3                    
INCHES AN HOUR MAY OCCUR. THIS HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE                       
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS FEELING THE                
BRUNT OF THE STORM LATER THIS EVENING.                                          
WILL NOT VARY MUCH FROM PAST SNOW AMOUNTS. WIND WILL HAVE A MAJOR               
IMPACT ON THE SNOW RATIO AS IT FRACTURES THE FLAKES INTO SMALLER                
MORE COMPACT PIECES SO NOT BUYING THE HIGH SNOW RATIOS THUS HIGH                
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE BUFKIT. PREFER A COMPROMISE FROM THE MODEL                
AWIPS OUTPUT USING THE GFS AND NAM. THE DOWNEAST WILL HAVE THE                  
MOST AMOUNT OF QPF WITH AROUND 1.3 INCHES OF LIQUID. HOWEVER, THE               
BEST OMEGA WILL BE BELOW THE FAVORABLE GROWTH ZONE WHERE MIXED                  
CRYSTALS AND RIMED FLAKES WILL OCCUR KEEPING SNOW RATIOS AROUND 12              
TO 1 BUT STILL EXPECT 12 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW. CENTRAL SECTIONS                 
APPEAR TO BE IN THE CROSS HAIRS FOR THE MOST AMOUNT OF SNOW. WITH               
QPF OVER AN INCH COMBINED WITH STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 20 INCHES              
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE NORTH THE STRONGEST UVV WILL BE                
ABOVE THE STELLAR DENDRITES ZONE SO RATIOS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.                 
SO EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH, SNOW                 
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 12 AND 16 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.          
ONLY THING THAT COULD KNOCK AMOUNTS DOWN WOULD BE THE QUICK                     
MOVEMENT OF THE STORM. AS SURFACE LOW EXPLODES OVER MAINE IT                    
CAUSES THE UPPER LOW TO QUICKLY JUMP EASTWARD. ALSO 180 KT WESTERLY             
JET AND NO BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM SHOULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO              
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
VERY BRISK WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY WIND DOWN MON NGT THRU TUE MORN               
AS ARCTIC AIR POURS BACK ACROSS THE FA. 925MB TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS              
THE LOWER -20S DEG C BY 12Z TUE AND ONLY RECOVER BACK INTO THE                  
UPPER -10S BY 18Z...SUGGESTING THAT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE N WILL                
STRUGGLE TO GET BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FROM SUB-ZERO MORNING               
LOWS. HI TEMPS SHOULD GET AOA ABV +10 DEG F OVR DOWNEAST AREAS.                 
NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NGT WITH THE SFC               
HI PASSING SO FAR S OF THE FA AND HI/MID CLDS ALREADY ADVANCING                 
EWRD INTO THE FA TUE EVE WITH WARM ADVCN BREAKING OUT WELL IN                   
ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. LGT SNOW WILL                  
LIKELY OVRSPREAD ALL OF THE FA BY ERLY WED MORN. QPF FCSTS ATTM                 
APPEAR LGT SO WILL INSERT LGT WORDING IN ZFP.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS WHAT MODELS TO BELIEVE REGARDING THE                   
TRACK OF THE MAIN SFC WV AND ASSOCIATED S/WV LATE WED NGT INTO                  
THU. OPNL 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS STILL WOULD LIKE TO TRACK THE                
LOW RIGHT ACROSS FAR NRN ME ARND 12Z THU...ALTHOUGH THIS PSN IS A               
LITTLE FURTHER S THAN THE PRIOR OPNL RUNS. THE GFS ENS MEAN AND                 
ALMOST ALL OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES PREFER TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM              
FURTHER S...ALG THE DOWNEAST MAINE COAST. THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS AN              
IMPORTANT ROLE TO PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU WITH              
ANY ONGOING PRECIP. LOOKING CLOSELY AT THE GFS ENS...WE NOTED THAT              
THE ENS MEAN IS INDICATING A STRONGER NRN BR S/WV ROTATING ARND                 
THE LARGE CAN MID/UPPER LVL VORTEX OVR NRN QB. THE CONFLUENCE                   
BETWEEN THIS BRANCH IN THE UPPER FLOW AND THE MORE SRN BRANCH                   
SUPPORTING THE S/WV COMPLEX ARRIVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS IS FCST                
TO BE JUST N OF OUR FA. IF THIS IS SO...A BRIDGING SFC ARCTIC HI                
MAY MOVE INTO CNTRL QB AND SRN LABRADOR...SUPRESSING THE FRONTAL                
ZONE FURTHER S OVR OUR FA.                                                      
FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE OPNL/GFS ENS SFC                 
LOW TRACK...AND WILL INTRODUCE TRANSITIONAL PRECIP AN RN TO AS FAR              
N AS THE CNTRL ZONES...AND KEEP NRN ZONES SN ATTM. STARTED THE                  
EVENT WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT THEN SLOWLY DROP POPS INTO                
THE LIKELY CAT WED NGT AND THEN ENDING AS CHC POPS THU...GIVEN                  
UNCERTAINTIES. ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF ARTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS                    
SYSTEM THU AFT INTO FRI. DESPITE THE COLDNESS OF THIS AIR MASS                  
LLVL WARM ADVCN WILL ERODE MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE ARCTIC AIR BY               
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG S/WV FROM THE NE PAC RELOADS A DEEP             
WRN U.S. TROF.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.               
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AS THE STORM EXITS              
TO THE EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY HOLD ON OVR NRN TAF SITES MONDAY               
EVE WITH REMNANT BLSN...THEN ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR LATE MON NGT               
THRU TUE EVE. THE NEXT PD OF MVFR/IFR CLGS WILL BE LATE TUE NGT                 
INTO THU MORN...INITIALLY IN LGT SN...THEN LGT SN/PL/RN WED NGT                 
INTO THU MORN. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR THU AFT AND CONT SO                  
THRU FRI.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NOREASTER BUT                
BETTER CHANCE WILL BE AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY              
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN       
QUITE STRONG...LIKELY IN THE GALE CAT WITH GALES XPCTD TO LAST MON EVE          
BEFORE LOWERING TO SCA LATE MON NGT.                                            
SIGNIFICANT FZSPY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF LLVL TEMPS BECOME COLD                 
ENOUGH. GIVEN CURRENT STORM HDLNS AND UNCERTAINTY OF LLVL COLD                  
ADVCN ATTM...WE WILL WAIT A COUPLE OF MORE MODEL RUNS TO RE-ASSESS              
FZSPY POTENTIAL DURING THIS PD.                                                 
SHORT TERM: SCA WINDS SHOULD CONT INTO TUE MORN AS A COLD NW FLOW               
SLOWLY SUBSIDES TUE AFT. HAZ SEAS WILL LIKELY CONT AT LEAST INTO                
TUE NGT...BEFORE LLVL WINDS BACK TO THE SSW LATE TUE NGT. WINDS                 
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BACK TO THE SCA RANGE BY WED NGT AS LLVL SRLY              
RETURN FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVANCING EWRD FROM THE                 
GREAT LKS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...BLIZZARD WARNING IN FEECT UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006.            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.     
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST                
     MONDAY FOR MEZ029-030.                                                     
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...NORTON/HEWITT                                                       
SHORT TERM...VJN                                                                
LONG TERM...VJN                                                                 
AVIATION...NORTON                                                               
MARINE...NORTON/FOSTER/VJN                                                      
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
711 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL              
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD CAPE COD LATER TODAY.  GUSTY NORTHWEST                
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND                 
BRING VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY              
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...                  
MODERATING TEMPATURES TO ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS BUT WITH BETTER THAN            
NORMAL CHC FOR CLOUDS AND PCPN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
08Z SFC ANALY FEATURES FRACTURED LOPRES FM WRN PA SWD TO WRN VA--               
CNTRS NR PIT AND GEV. A HIPRES RDG EXTEND SWD FM NEW ENGLND DWN I-95            
CRRDR TO DC. PLENTY OF LLVL COLD AIR IN PLACE...W/ FRZG LN JUST ABT             
TO EZF-CGE.                                                                     
AT 11Z...LOWS HV SPLIT FURTHER. THE NRN LOW HAS RETROGRADED BACK TWD            
GRTLKS...CLSR TO H5 CYCLONE. SRN LOW IN WRN NC. BUT...PRIND CSTL                
RDVLPMNT TAKING PLACE OFF ACY. RGNL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS MOST OF THE            
MSTR NOW E OF BLURDG. SWATH OF FAIRLY INTENSE REFLECTIVITIES                    
OMH-ESN. RECVD REPORT OF SOME WET SNW IN SRN CHARLES CNTY A CPL HRS             
AGO. SEEMS AS THO COLD AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN.                                  
GDNC HAS BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT IN CAPTURING EXTENT OF THE SUBFRZG               
AMS. LWX-WRF-ARW4N SEEMS TO BE DOING RELATIVELY WELL. OF THE                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE MDLS...NAM12 PREFERRED. IT/S BEEN MAINLY FZDZ ACRS               
CWFA THUS FAR...THO 88D SUGGESTS A FEW POCKETS OF PL OUT THERE.                 
SPOTTER CALLS/EMAILS INDICATE ACCRETION HAS BEGUN. PLS KEEP THOSE               
CALLS COMING!                                                                   
THE SRN LOW WL TRANSLATE ACRS SSIDE VA ELY THIS MRNG. H5 SUPPORT                
LINGERS BACK ACRS GRTLKS. JETSTREAM ACRS CWFA...BUT 160KT JETMAX                
BACK ACRS OHVLY. QPF WL CONT TO BE ON THE LGT SIDE TIL SFC AND UPR              
LVL FEATURES PHASE AND TAKE ON A NEG TILT. STORM WL BE PAST CWFA BY             
THE TIME THAT HPPNS.                                                            
WE/VE JUST ABT REACHED OUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. DYNAMICS                      
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTD PCPN THRU ABT 15Z. AS JUST MNTND...SFC              
LOW WL BE OFF DELMARVA BY THEN...AND WNDS WL TURN WLY RATHER                    
SHARPLY. SIGNIFICANTLY LWR DEWPTS WL ADVECT EWD AT THAT PT...WHICH              
SHUD MARK NOT JUST END OF PCPN...BUT ALSO PRTL CLRG FOR THE AFTN HRS.           
IN TERMS OF PTPYE...GOING MAINLY W/ FZRA/FZDZ. NOT ONLY DO OBS                  
SUPPORT IT...BUT MDL SNDGS DEPICT STRONG H8 WAA...LEADING TO A                  
NOTABLE WM AIR INTRUSION WHILE SFC LYR SHALLOW. AT STORMS END...ENUF            
COLD AIR LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO MTNS FOR IT TO POTENTIALLY END AS SN.            
SINCE FRZG LN HAS SUNK FAIRLY FAR S INTO VA...AM SUSPECT ABT PCPN               
ENDING AS RA XCPT FOR EZF-NHK. BUT...ESELY SFC FLOW ATTM SUGGESTS IT            
STILL PSBL ABT DCA-BWI. WL HEDGE BETS THAT WAY...WHICH STILL IS                 
COLDER THAN SYNOPTIC SCALE GDNC. /BTW...WRF-ARW4 SUPPORTS A WARMER              
END ALL THE WAY W INTO SHEN VLY. WE SHALL SEE./                                 
--CHGS FOR THIS UPDT-- WL ALLW ADDED SEGMENT TO WSW ACRS SERN CWFA              
/SRN MD AND INVOF EZF/ TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. TEMPS STILL BRDRLN 32F.                
BUT...RAFL RATES HIER THAN ANTICIPATED...MORE IN LN TO WHAT RUC                 
SUGGESTED. ICE ACCRETION WONT TAKE PLACE W/ THAT MUCH LIQUID AND                
ONLY BDRDLN TEMPS. ELSW...WL LV ADVYS STAND AS IS. ALTHO STDY PCPN              
LIKELY WL BE ENDING PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME...PATCHY FZDZ LIKELY TO            
LINGER. PERFER TO HOLD ONTO ADVY TIL SOME SIGN OF TEMP RISE                     
BEGINS...WHICH WL BE AFTR SUNRISE. PLUS...XPCT SHIELD OF PCPN TO                
PIVOT BACK AS CSTL STORM STRENGTHENS/ATTAINS NEG TILT. SO...AREA                
THAT HAD ADVY EXTENDED TIL NOON STILL WONT BE OUT OF THE WOODS SOON.            
INSTEAD OF FZRA...IT/LL BE COLD TEMPS AND FZDZ...KEEPING ICY CONDS              
IN PLACE.                                                                       
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS TAFTN. INCRSD P-GRAD WL LEAD TO            
WINDY CONDS...BUT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS IT WL BE JUST THAT--               
WINDY BUT ADVYS NOT REQD. DAY CREW WL NEED TO MONITOR AND                       
INTERROGATE LATER GDNC TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS REQD.                              
ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS...UPSLOPE COMPONENT REPONSIBLE FOR SCT SHSN.                
BUT...FLOW SO STRONG AND TRAJ WLY THAT IT WONT BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE              
OR PICK UP NEEDED MSTR. THUS...POPS NO HIER THAN CHC.                           
GIVEN STRONG CAA...MAXT WL BE A STRUGGLE BTWN PROCESSES. THINK THE              
DWNSLOPE AND CLRG WL ALLW A QUICK BURST BEFORE CAA REALLY KICKS IN.             
THAT PERMITS RISING TEMPS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS GDNC SUGGESTS.                   
THUS...FCST MAXT WL BE UNDER GDNC VALUES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
SUNDAY NIGHT THE TRAILING H5 VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                     
CWA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF LLVL CAA AS H85 TEMPS DROP TO                  
-20C. THIS CAA WILL PRODUCE A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TONIGHT UP               
TO H75...WHERE WINDS ARE 40+KTS. SHOULD SEE A GUSTY WIND                        
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN SUNSET AND 2 AM...WILL KEEP IT JUST BLO WIND               
ADVSRY FOR NOW. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE WIND CHILL ADVSRY THRESHOLDS               
IN THE HIER ELEVATIONS ABV 1500 FT LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT               
THAT IS LATE 2ND/ERLY 3RD PD SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL                   
ADVSRY ATTM BUT HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURENCE.                                   
MONDAY WILL BE NW FLO DAY WITH SCT-BKN SC BUT GUSTY WIND WILL                   
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.  UPSLOPE MACHINE WILL BE ON IN WESTERN 5              
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BUT A BIT STARVED OF MOISTURE SO ONLY INCH OR            
SO XPCTD ATTM.                                                                  
MONDAY NIGHT THE SFC HIGH FROM THE TN VALLEY BUILDS IN AND STARTS               
PUMPING WARM AIR INTO REGION.  TUE NIGHT MIGHT SEE OVERUNNING PCPN              
START AS A BRIEF PD OF FZRA BUT WITH STRONG WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS             
WILL QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
MODERATING TEMPS MID WEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH            
LONG RANGE MEX GDNCE GIVING HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK U50S/L60S. BUT               
NOT WITHOUT ALOT OF CLOUDS AND POTL FOR WARM FRONTAL SHRA XMAS                  
NIGHT AND FRI.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
SHIELD OF PCPN E OF BLURDG. TEMPS ACRS TERMINALS BLO FRZG...SO PTYPE            
FZRA/FZDZ. STDY PCPN WL END SHORTLY...BUT PATCHY FZDZ WL LINGER THRU            
MRNG...AS TEMPS WON/T RISE ABV 32F ALL THAT QUICKLY.                            
ELY WNDS WL BECOME WLY BY MIDDAY...WHICH WL SCOUR OUT ANY FLGT                  
RESTRICTIONS. AS P-GRAD INCREASES...XPCT WNDS TO PICK UP TO 15-30 KT            
DURING AFTN...CONTG INTO EVNG.                                                  
SUN NGT AND MON..STRONG NW WINDS WL GENERATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE              
IN LEE OF THE APLCHNS. OTRW...VFR XPCTD THRU AT LEAST TUE. NXT                  
THREAT OF FLGT RESTRICTIONS COMES TUE NGT-WED.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOPRES TRACKS ACRS WATERS THIS MRNG. PGARD INCR IN ITS WAKE. GLW                
ALREADY IN PLACE TAFTN. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 35 KT GUSTS W/IN             
REACH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR DCZ001.                   
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     MDZ501-502.                                                                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ003>007-               
     009>011-013-014.                                                           
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     VAZ021-025>027-029-030-036>041-050-051.                                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ028-031-               
     042-052>054.                                                               
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     WVZ050-054-055-501>504.                                                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ051>053.               
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR           
     ANZ530>537.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LEE                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HTS                                                                 
SHORT TERM...LEE                                                                
LONG TERM...LEE                                                                 
AVIATION...HTS                                                                  
MARINE...HTS/LEE                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS              
NORTH AMERICA AROUND A LARGE LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. A RIDGE OUT               
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW HAS SAILED ACROSS            
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE            
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS...INCLUDING              
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE HIGH                
PLAINS GETTING READY TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.              
GRADIENTS ARE FAIRLY WEAK NORTH OF THE HIGH CAUSING WINDS TO BE LESS            
THAN 10 MPH THIS EVENING. MQT-88D SHOWS A FEW LES SHOWERS OVER THE              
LAKE EAST OF MARQUETTE. ONLY KCMX SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO              
SHOW SNOW THIS HOUR.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND TUE)...                                        
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT                 
REACHING THE EASTERN U.P. BY 12Z TUESDAY. LES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE            
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TONIGHT. THESE WILL LESSEN AS THE WINDS BACK WITH            
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP             
LES GOING FOR THE EFFECT AREA TONIGHT. IR SATELLITE SHOWING MOSTLY              
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR IN PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. A SHORTWAVE               
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT OVER WISCONSIN. Q-VECTOR                    
CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE LIFT OVER                  
WISCONSIN AND WESTERN U.P. BY SUNRISE PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD            
COVER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHOW LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE              
WESTERN U.P. BY DAWN.                                                           
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.P. ON TUESDAY. THE            
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO AROUND KMSP. ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
AHEAD OF THIS LOW TO THE SOUTH IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME UPPER             
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE MORNING...BUT MUCH OF THE                   
ACCOMPANYING UVV SHOULD BE WASTED IN SATURATING THE ANTECEDENT DRY              
AIRMASS. BETTER FORCING IN TERMS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARRIVES              
IN THE 18Z-24Z TIMEFRAME WITH APROACHING OF 120KT H3 JET MAX AS                 
SHOWN BY  NAM/GFS. MOISTER IS ANOTHER CONCERN. NAM/GFS SHOW 1.0-1.5             
G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE 285K SURFACE (ABOUT H725) WITH A                  
GRADUAL INCREASE TOWARD 2.0 G/KG OVER THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.                
THIS MOISTURE INFLUX WOULD SUG 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE MRNG AND 1.5-2.0             
INCHES DURING THE AFTN PER IMXR METHOD. FVRBL UVV IN A FAIRLY DEEP              
DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN IS A POSITIVE FOR SN AMTS. HOWEVER...CUT THE             
MRNG SN A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AND DEARTH OF MSTR              
NOW SHOWN IN THE PLAINS. SO THRU THE DAY...WENT WITH A GENERAL 1-3              
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS OVER SCHOOLCRAFT/ERN             
ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES WITH A MSTR CONTRIBUTION/DESTABILIZATION OFF LK             
MI. BUMPED UP QPF/SN AMTS IN THIS AREA WITH FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL               
SSW SFC-H925 FLOW CONTRIBUTING TOWARD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH                  
CHILLY H85 TEMPS AOB -10C TO -12C THRU THE DAY OVER NRN LK MI.                  
ELECTED TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM FOR LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
THE LOCAL WRF RUN CONTINUES LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN              
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE EVENING WITH THE LAKE MICHIGAN                    
ENHANCED BAND CONTINUING ACROSS SCHOOLCRAFT INTO SRN LUCE COUNTY.               
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SYNOPTIC SNOW DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE TUE             
EVENING WITH 700MB MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 1-2 G/KG. THE REG WRF                 
SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IN THE LAKE ENHANCED AREA...HOWEVER 4               
INCHES IS PROBABLY THE HIGH END SINCE THE BAND WILL LIKELY BE                   
SHIFTING INTO MACKINAW COUNTY AS THE WINDS VEER. OTHERWISE...THE                
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE            
MOVES INTO THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE.                                           
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER TRICKY DAY AS THE NAM AND GFS            
SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT WILL                  
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.            
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI WHICH              
WOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER NORHTERN LOWER                    
MI...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BEST 850MB THERMAL PACKING WILL BE               
OVER NORTHERN LOWER. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE                     
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN UPPER            
MI WED...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE                
DESPITE THE NAM SHOWING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. FOR                 
NOW...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AREAS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN               
WED AFTN. IN GENERAL...700MB MIXING RATIOS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF            
UPPER MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 2 G/KG FROM 12Z-24Z ON WED...WHICH WOULD              
EQUATE TO 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A DEEP              
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER...THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL ALSO BE            
A CONSIDERABLE LAYER BELOW THE DGZ CONTAINING LIFT WHICH WILL CAUSE             
ACCRETION AND CAUSE SLR/S TO LOWER. THAT WOULD SUPPORT ONLY GOING               
WITH 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST WED.                                            
AS THE LOW DEEPENS...NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE             
SUPERIOR WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LES TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN               
AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE WED NIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR                     
SIGNIFICANT LES WED NIGHT ARE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AND THE                  
BACKING OF WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A                    
CONVERGENCE BAND INTO EASTERN MQT AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTY LATE WED             
AFTN AND INTO EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ADVISORY TYPE                         
AMOUNTS...BUT AGAIN THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE RELATIVELY             
WARM AIR AND SHORT DURATION AS THE WINDS WILL BE BACKING THROUGH THE            
NIGHT. ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...DRY AIR AND A RAPIDLY                    
LOWERING INVERSION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT             
SNOW. ANY LES BANDS ACROSS ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES                  
SHOULD SHIFT EAST AS THE WINDS BACK.                                            
CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE                
AREA. IN FACT...IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY              
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S. MIGHT            
BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND INTO FAR NRN             
LUCE COUNTY...BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTN AS RETURN FLOW                   
DEVELOPS THU AFTN.                                                              
IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT HAS               
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE LAST WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK. IN GENERAL...IT              
LOOKS LIKE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST AND CENTER ITSELF            
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN STATES WILL               
REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH SYSTEMS DIVING INTO THE PAC NW FROM               
ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA AFTER                  
CHRISTMAS DAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST TEMPS ABOVE            
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...CONFIDENCE IS              
LOW DUE TO THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK AND THE AREA BEING NEAR THE                   
RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS            
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850MB TO WELL               
ABOVE 0C /THE ECMWF SHOWS +8C OVER THE EAST SATURDAY                            
MORNING/...HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND NAEFS AS WELL            
AS THE CANADIAN DO NOT SUPPORT THIS MUCH WARMTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.            
AT THIS TIME...WILL TEND TO GO WITH LOWER 30S EAST AND UPPER 20S                
WEST FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND GO WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE               
REGION. WILL NEED TO AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR            
SNOW ACROSS THE EAST HALF GIVEN THE STORM TRACK. WITH STRONG                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME                
FZRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET OF PCPN FRI NIGHT. WILL NOT               
MENTION ANY FREEZING PCPN AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE ECMWF             
AND GFS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ               
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI. IN FACT...THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT UPPER             
MICHIGAN WOULD BE A DRY SLOT MUCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE               
06Z GFS BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS FOR A STRONG LOW TO                   
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS AN              
OUTLIER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUIETER WITH W-NW FLOW SUNDAY AND IS                 
PREFERRED. IN FACT...IT MAY END UP BEING TOO WARM FOR LES ON SUNDAY             
WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -13C. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE              
EAST...BUT DRY WEST. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY THE             
THE ECWMF FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO THE GFS. NO              
PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LOW 30 POPS FOR             
THE ENTIRE AREA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOR CMX...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENIG WITH WESTERLY            
FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UPSLOPING INTO THE                  
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ONCE LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT             
AND LOSES OVERWATER COMPONENT...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS WILL SET UP              
AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE -SN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVES            
IN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND DROPS VISBILITY AND CEILINGS TO                  
IFR/MVFR RANGE.                                                                 
AT SAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SNOW IN                
ADVANCE OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN DURING THE MORNING AND DROPS              
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO IFR/MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND            
NEW AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND REACH THE EASTERN GREAT            
LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE            
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL               
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
TO 35 KNOTS. CONSIDERED A GALE WARNING...BUT PLACEMENT OF SHARPER               
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS A MARGINAL EVENT DESPITE SOME              
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. ON                  
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH OF              
THE LOW TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THE LOW                
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ALONG THE TROUGH OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...LOOK            
FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY              
MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING            
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES REDEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.             
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS SAT               
INTO SAT NIGHT IF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST                    
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ007-014-085.                                          
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ001-              
     003.                                                                       
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DLG                                                                  
SHORT TERM...DLG/KC                                                             
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...KC/SF                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
646 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
UPDATE FOR AVIATION...                                                          
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS               
NAMERICA WITH FA DOMINATED BY NRN BRANCH NW FLOW OF COLD ARCTIC AIR             
BTWN RDG OVER WRN CAN AND TROF IN SE CAN. DESPITE ADEQUATE OVERWATER            
INSTABILITY (12Z H85 TEMPS OVER LK SUP IN THE -17C TO -20C RANGE)               
AND A RELATIVELY MOIST 12Z INL RAOB (ALBEIT ABSOLUTELY DRY WITH PWAT            
0.11 INCH)...ONLY RELATIVELY LGT LES CONTINUES IN THE NW WIND SN                
BELTS E OF MQT EARLY THIS AFTN. MQT 88D SHOWS VERY FEW ECHOES                   
GREATER THAN 20DBZ WITHIN BANDS MOVING INTO ALGER COUNTY. OVER THE W            
HOWEVER...SPOTTER REPORTS OF AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF SN TDAY OVER THE            
HIER TERRAIN ARND CALUMET EVEN THOUGH VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A LACK            
OF BANDING OVER WRN LK SUP AND INVRN BASE ON THE 12Z INL/GRB SDNGS              
WAS AT H925-9. DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE SHARP CONFLUENCE BTWN 330               
WIND AT P59 AND 200 WIND AT ONTONAGON AS WELL AS MORE EFFICIENT                 
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. OTRW...SKIES HAVE TURNED PCLDY OVER THE                 
INTERIOR W HALF OF THE CWA...BUT SFC TEMPS REMAIN BLO ZERO AS OF                
NOON OVER THE FAR W WITH ONLY FEEBLE LATE DEC SUNSHINE.                         
A MORE ACTIVE SRN BRANCH IS NOTED ACRS THE SRN TIER OF THE CONUS...             
WITH DEEP TROF OVER THE W. ONE SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF                 
APPEARS TO BE MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER MORE POTENT             
SYS IS CRASHING INTO CA/NEVADA. HOWEVER...12Z H85 RAOBS SHOW ONLY               
VERY DRY AIR IN THE PLAINS. IN FACT...H85 DWPTS/PWATS ARE IN THE                
-20C TO -25C RANGE/AOB 0.25 INCH AS FAR S AS TX.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND TUE)...                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PD ARE LES TRENDS TNGT/HOW LO TEMPS CAN GO              
TNGT AND THEN FCST POPS/SN AMTS ON TUE WITH DVLPG WAD PATTERN BTWN              
DEPARING MN RDG AND FALLING HGTS/MSLP IN THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF               
WRN TROF.                                                                       
FOR TNGT...WITH RISING HGTS DOWNWIND OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE W...              
SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS FCST TO DRIFT ACRS THE FA AND TO THE E BY 12Z              
TUE. WITH STEADILY BACK FLOW TO MORE SW OVERNGT...EXPECT LINGERING              
LES OVER THE KEWEENAW AND E OF P53 TO END AND DRIFT INTO LK SUP.                
ISSUED LES ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW BASED ON REPORT FM CALUMET AND                 
EXPECTED CONFLUENCE BTWN P59 AND ONTONAGON BEFORE FLOW EVERYWHERE               
TURNS SW ARND MIDNGT. WITH A PD OF MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS OVER               
THE INTERIOR IN PRESENCE OF PWAT ARND 0.10 INCH...SUSPECT TEMPS WL              
CRASH THIS EVNG BEFORE ARRIVAL OF HI CLD AHEAD OF WRN TROF. WL TEND             
TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE AND DEPICT A DIURNAL TEMP TREND               
WITH READINGS TENDING TO STEADY OUT/RISE AFT MIDNGT.                            
ON TUE...WAD IS FCST TO DOMINATE BTWN DEPARTING RDG AND FALLING MSLP            
IN THE NRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NRN                    
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE H85-H925 FLOW IS FCST TO BE NEUTRAL/ACYC TO              
THE N OF SHARPER WARM FGEN/H85 THERMAL PACKING/DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT             
TO THE S IN THE LOWER GRT LKS. SOME UPR DVGC IS FCST TO ARRIVE IN               
THE MRNG...BUT MUCH OF THE ACCOMPANYING UVV SHOULD BE WASTED IN                 
SATURATING THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS. BETTER FORCING IN TERMS OF               
UPR DVGC ARRIVES IN THE 18Z-24Z TIMEFRAME WITH APRCH OF 120KT H3 JET            
MAX AS SHOWN BY NAM/GFS. MSTR IS ANOTHER CONCERN. NAM/GFS SHOW                  
1.0-1.5 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE 285K SFC (ABOUT H725) WITH A              
GRDL INCRS TOWARD 2.0 G/KG OVER THE S LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MSTR                
INFLUX WOULD SUG 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE MRNG AND 1.5-2.0 INCHES DURING             
THE AFTN PER IMXR METHOD. FVRBL UVV IN A FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC SN               
GROWTH ZN IS A POSITIVE FOR SN AMTS. HOWEVER...CUT THE MRNG SN A BIT            
TO ACCOUNT FOR ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AND DEARTH OF MSTR NOW SHOWN IN               
THE PLAINS. SO THRU THE DAY...WENT WITH A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF                 
ACCUMULATION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS OVER SCHOOLCRAFT/ERN ALGER/LUCE            
COUNTIES WITH A MSTR CONTRIBUTION/DESTABILIZATION OFF LK MI. BUMPED             
UP QPF/SN AMTS IN THIS AREA WITH FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSW SFC-H925             
FLOW CONTRIBUTING TOWARD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH CHILLY H85 TEMPS              
AOB -10C TO -12C THRU THE DAY OVER NRN LK MI. ELECTED TO ISSUE ADVY             
ATTM FOR LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
THE LOCAL WRF RUN CONTINUES LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN              
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE EVENING WITH THE LAKE MICHIGAN                    
ENHANCED BAND CONTINUING ACROSS SCHOOLCRAFT INTO SRN LUCE COUNTY.               
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SYNOPTIC SNOW DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE TUE             
EVENING WITH 700MB MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 1-2 G/KG. THE REG WRF                 
SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IN THE LAKE ENHANCED AREA...HOWEVER 4               
INCHES IS PROBABLY THE HIGH END SINCE THE BAND WILL LIKELY BE                   
SHIFTING INTO MACKINAW COUNTY AS THE WINDS VEER. OTHERWISE...THE                
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE            
MOVES INTO THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE.                                           
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER TRICKY DAY AS THE NAM AND GFS            
SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT WILL                  
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.            
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI WHICH              
WOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER NORHTERN LOWER                    
MI...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BEST 850MB THERMAL PACKING WILL BE               
OVER NORTHERN LOWER. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE                     
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN UPPER            
MI WED...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE                
DESPITE THE NAM SHOWING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. FOR                 
NOW...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AREAS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN               
WED AFTN. IN GENERAL...700MB MIXING RATIOS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF            
UPPER MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 2 G/KG FROM 12Z-24Z ON WED...WHICH WOULD              
EQUATE TO 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A DEEP              
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER...THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL ALSO BE            
A CONSIDERABLE LAYER BELOW THE DGZ CONTAINING LIFT WHICH WILL CAUSE             
ACCRETION AND CAUSE SLR/S TO LOWER. THAT WOULD SUPPORT ONLY GOING               
WITH 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST WED.                                            
AS THE LOW DEEPENS...NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE             
SUPERIOR WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LES TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN               
AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE WED NIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR                     
SIGNIFICANT LES WED NIGHT ARE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AND THE                  
BACKING OF WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A                    
CONVERGENCE BAND INTO EASTERN MQT AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTY LATE WED             
AFTN AND INTO EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ADVISORY TYPE                         
AMOUNTS...BUT AGAIN THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE RELATIVELY             
WARM AIR AND SHORT DURATION AS THE WINDS WILL BE BACKING THROUGH THE            
NIGHT. ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...DRY AIR AND A RAPIDLY                    
LOWERING INVERSION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT             
SNOW. ANY LES BANDS ACROSS ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES                  
SHOULD SHIFT EAST AS THE WINDS BACK.                                            
CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE                
AREA. IN FACT...IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY              
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S. MIGHT            
BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND INTO FAR NRN             
LUCE COUNTY...BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTN AS RETURN FLOW                   
DEVELOPS THU AFTN.                                                              
IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT HAS               
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE LAST WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK. IN GENERAL...IT              
LOOKS LIKE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST AND CENTER ITSELF            
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN STATES WILL               
REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH SYSTEMS DIVING INTO THE PAC NW FROM               
ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA AFTER                  
CHRISTMAS DAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST TEMPS ABOVE            
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...CONFIDENCE IS              
LOW DUE TO THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK AND THE AREA BEING NEAR THE                   
RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS            
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850MB TO WELL               
ABOVE 0C /THE ECMWF SHOWS +8C OVER THE EAST SATURDAY                            
MORNING/...HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND NAEFS AS WELL            
AS THE CANADIAN DO NOT SUPPORT THIS MUCH WARMTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.            
AT THIS TIME...WILL TEND TO GO WITH LOWER 30S EAST AND UPPER 20S                
WEST FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND GO WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE               
REGION. WILL NEED TO AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR            
SNOW ACROSS THE EAST HALF GIVEN THE STORM TRACK. WITH STRONG                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME                
FZRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET OF PCPN FRI NIGHT. WILL NOT               
MENTION ANY FREEZING PCPN AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE ECMWF             
AND GFS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ               
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI. IN FACT...THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT UPPER             
MICHIGAN WOULD BE A DRY SLOT MUCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE               
06Z GFS BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS FOR A STRONG LOW TO                   
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS AN              
OUTLIER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUIETER WITH W-NW FLOW SUNDAY AND IS                 
PREFERRED. IN FACT...IT MAY END UP BEING TOO WARM FOR LES ON SUNDAY             
WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -13C. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE              
EAST...BUT DRY WEST. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY THE             
THE ECWMF FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO THE GFS. NO              
PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LOW 30 POPS FOR             
THE ENTIRE AREA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOR CMX...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENIG WITH WESTERLY            
FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UPSLOPING INTO THE                  
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ONCE LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT             
AND LOSES OVERWATER COMPONENT...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS WILL SET UP              
AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE -SN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVES            
IN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND DROPS VISBILITY AND CEILINGS TO                  
IFR/MVFR RANGE.                                                                 
AT SAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SNOW IN                
ADVANCE OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN DURING THE MORNING AND DROPS              
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO IFR/MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND            
NEW AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND REACH THE EASTERN GREAT            
LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE            
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL               
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
TO 35 KNOTS. CONSIDERED A GALE WARNING...BUT PLACEMENT OF SHARPER               
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS A MARGINAL EVENT DESPITE SOME              
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. ON                  
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH OF              
THE LOW TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THE LOW                
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ALONG THE TROUGH OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...LOOK            
FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY              
MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING            
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES REDEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.             
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS SAT               
INTO SAT NIGHT IF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST                    
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ007-014-085.                                          
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ001-              
     003.                                                                       
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KC                                                                   
SHORT TERM...KC                                                                 
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC/SF                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
413 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS               
NAMERICA WITH FA DOMINATED BY NRN BRANCH NW FLOW OF COLD ARCTIC AIR             
BTWN RDG OVER WRN CAN AND TROF IN SE CAN. DESPITE ADEQUATE OVERWATER            
INSTABILITY (12Z H85 TEMPS OVER LK SUP IN THE -17C TO -20C RANGE)               
AND A RELATIVELY MOIST 12Z INL RAOB (ALBEIT ABSOLUTELY DRY WITH PWAT            
0.11 INCH)...ONLY RELATIVELY LGT LES CONTINUES IN THE NW WIND SN                
BELTS E OF MQT EARLY THIS AFTN. MQT 88D SHOWS VERY FEW ECHOES                   
GREATER THAN 20DBZ WITHIN BANDS MOVING INTO ALGER COUNTY. OVER THE W            
HOWEVER...SPOTTER REPORTS OF AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF SN TDAY OVER THE            
HIER TERRAIN ARND CALUMET EVEN THOUGH VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A LACK            
OF BANDING OVER WRN LK SUP AND INVRN BASE ON THE 12Z INL/GRB SDNGS              
WAS AT H925-9. DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE SHARP CONFLUENCE BTWN 330               
WIND AT P59 AND 200 WIND AT ONTONAGON AS WELL AS MORE EFFICIENT                 
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. OTRW...SKIES HAVE TURNED PCLDY OVER THE                 
INTERIOR W HALF OF THE CWA...BUT SFC TEMPS REMAIN BLO ZERO AS OF                
NOON OVER THE FAR W WITH ONLY FEEBLE LATE DEC SUNSHINE.                         
A MORE ACTIVE SRN BRANCH IS NOTED ACRS THE SRN TIER OF THE CONUS...             
WITH DEEP TROF OVER THE W. ONE SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF                 
APPEARS TO BE MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER MORE POTENT             
SYS IS CRASHING INTO CA/NEVADA. HOWEVER...12Z H85 RAOBS SHOW ONLY               
VERY DRY AIR IN THE PLAINS. IN FACT...H85 DWPTS/PWATS ARE IN THE                
-20C TO -25C RANGE/AOB 0.25 INCH AS FAR S AS TX.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND TUE)...                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PD ARE LES TRENDS TNGT/HOW LO TEMPS CAN GO              
TNGT AND THEN FCST POPS/SN AMTS ON TUE WITH DVLPG WAD PATTERN BTWN              
DEPARING MN RDG AND FALLING HGTS/MSLP IN THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF               
WRN TROF.                                                                       
FOR TNGT...WITH RISING HGTS DOWNWIND OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE W...              
SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS FCST TO DRIFT ACRS THE FA AND TO THE E BY 12Z              
TUE. WITH STEADILY BACK FLOW TO MORE SW OVERNGT...EXPECT LINGERING              
LES OVER THE KEWEENAW AND E OF P53 TO END AND DRIFT INTO LK SUP.                
ISSUED LES ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW BASED ON REPORT FM CALUMET AND                 
EXPECTED CONFLUENCE BTWN P59 AND ONTONAGON BEFORE FLOW EVERYWHERE               
TURNS SW ARND MIDNGT. WITH A PD OF MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS OVER               
THE INTERIOR IN PRESENCE OF PWAT ARND 0.10 INCH...SUSPECT TEMPS WL              
CRASH THIS EVNG BEFORE ARRIVAL OF HI CLD AHEAD OF WRN TROF. WL TEND             
TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE AND DEPICT A DIURNAL TEMP TREND               
WITH READINGS TENDING TO STEADY OUT/RISE AFT MIDNGT.                            
ON TUE...WAD IS FCST TO DOMINATE BTWN DEPARTING RDG AND FALLING MSLP            
IN THE NRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NRN                    
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE H85-H925 FLOW IS FCST TO BE NEUTRAL/ACYC TO              
THE N OF SHARPER WARM FGEN/H85 THERMAL PACKING/DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT             
TO THE S IN THE LOWER GRT LKS. SOME UPR DVGC IS FCST TO ARRIVE IN               
THE MRNG...BUT MUCH OF THE ACCOMPANYING UVV SHOULD BE WASTED IN                 
SATURATING THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS. BETTER FORCING IN TERMS OF               
UPR DVGC ARRIVES IN THE 18Z-24Z TIMEFRAME WITH APRCH OF 120KT H3 JET            
MAX AS SHOWN BY NAM/GFS. MSTR IS ANOTHER CONCERN. NAM/GFS SHOW                  
1.0-1.5 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE 285K SFC (ABOUT H725) WITH A              
GRDL INCRS TOWARD 2.0 G/KG OVER THE S LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MSTR                
INFLUX WOULD SUG 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE MRNG AND 1.5-2.0 INCHES DURING             
THE AFTN PER IMXR METHOD. FVRBL UVV IN A FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC SN               
GROWTH ZN IS A POSITIVE FOR SN AMTS. HOWEVER...CUT THE MRNG SN A BIT            
TO ACCOUNT FOR ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AND DEARTH OF MSTR NOW SHOWN IN               
THE PLAINS. SO THRU THE DAY...WENT WITH A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF                 
ACCUMULATION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS OVER SCHOOLCRAFT/ERN ALGER/LUCE            
COUNTIES WITH A MSTR CONTRIBUTION/DESTABILIZATION OFF LK MI. BUMPED             
UP QPF/SN AMTS IN THIS AREA WITH FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSW SFC-H925             
FLOW CONTRIBUTING TOWARD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH CHILLY H85 TEMPS              
AOB -10C TO -12C THRU THE DAY OVER NRN LK MI. ELECTED TO ISSUE ADVY             
ATTM FOR LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
THE LOCAL WRF RUN CONTINUES LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN              
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE EVENING WITH THE LAKE MICHIGAN                    
ENHANCED BAND CONTINUING ACROSS SCHOOLCRAFT INTO SRN LUCE COUNTY.               
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SYNOPTIC SNOW DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE TUE             
EVENING WITH 700MB MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 1-2 G/KG. THE REG WRF                 
SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IN THE LAKE ENHANCED AREA...HOWEVER 4               
INCHES IS PROBABLY THE HIGH END SINCE THE BAND WILL LIKELY BE                   
SHIFTING INTO MACKINAW COUNTY AS THE WINDS VEER. OTHERWISE...THE                
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE            
MOVES INTO THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE.                                           
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER TRICKY DAY AS THE NAM AND GFS            
SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT WILL                  
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.            
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI WHICH              
WOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER NORHTERN LOWER                    
MI...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BEST 850MB THERMAL PACKING WILL BE               
OVER NORTHERN LOWER. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE                     
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN UPPER            
MI WED...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE                
DESPITE THE NAM SHOWING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. FOR                 
NOW...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AREAS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN               
WED AFTN. IN GENERAL...700MB MIXING RATIOS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF            
UPPER MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 2 G/KG FROM 12Z-24Z ON WED...WHICH WOULD              
EQUATE TO 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A DEEP              
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER...THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL ALSO BE            
A CONSIDERABLE LAYER BELOW THE DGZ CONTAINING LIFT WHICH WILL CAUSE             
ACCRETION AND CAUSE SLR/S TO LOWER. THAT WOULD SUPPORT ONLY GOING               
WITH 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST WED.                                            
AS THE LOW DEEPENS...NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE             
SUPERIOR WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LES TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN               
AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE WED NIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR                     
SIGNIFICANT LES WED NIGHT ARE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AND THE                  
BACKING OF WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A                    
CONVERGENCE BAND INTO EASTERN MQT AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTY LATE WED             
AFTN AND INTO EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ADVISORY TYPE                         
AMOUNTS...BUT AGAIN THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE RELATIVELY             
WARM AIR AND SHORT DURATION AS THE WINDS WILL BE BACKING THROUGH THE            
NIGHT. ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...DRY AIR AND A RAPIDLY                    
LOWERING INVERSION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT             
SNOW. ANY LES BANDS ACROSS ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES                  
SHOULD SHIFT EAST AS THE WINDS BACK.                                            
CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE                
AREA. IN FACT...IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY              
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S. MIGHT            
BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND INTO FAR NRN             
LUCE COUNTY...BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTN AS RETURN FLOW                   
DEVELOPS THU AFTN.                                                              
IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT HAS               
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE LAST WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK. IN GENERAL...IT              
LOOKS LIKE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST AND CENTER ITSELF            
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN STATES WILL               
REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH SYSTEMS DIVING INTO THE PAC NW FROM               
ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA AFTER                  
CHRISTMAS DAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST TEMPS ABOVE            
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...CONFIDENCE IS              
LOW DUE TO THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK AND THE AREA BEING NEAR THE                   
RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS            
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850MB TO WELL               
ABOVE 0C /THE ECMWF SHOWS +8C OVER THE EAST SATURDAY                            
MORNING/...HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND NAEFS AS WELL            
AS THE CANADIAN DO NOT SUPPORT THIS MUCH WARMTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.            
AT THIS TIME...WILL TEND TO GO WITH LOWER 30S EAST AND UPPER 20S                
WEST FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND GO WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE               
REGION. WILL NEED TO AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR            
SNOW ACROSS THE EAST HALF GIVEN THE STORM TRACK. WITH STRONG                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME                
FZRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET OF PCPN FRI NIGHT. WILL NOT               
MENTION ANY FREEZING PCPN AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE ECMWF             
AND GFS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ               
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI. IN FACT...THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT UPPER             
MICHIGAN WOULD BE A DRY SLOT MUCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE               
06Z GFS BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS FOR A STRONG LOW TO                   
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS AN              
OUTLIER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUIETER WITH W-NW FLOW SUNDAY AND IS                 
PREFERRED. IN FACT...IT MAY END UP BEING TOO WARM FOR LES ON SUNDAY             
WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -13C. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE              
EAST...BUT DRY WEST. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY THE             
THE ECWMF FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO THE GFS. NO              
PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LOW 30 POPS FOR             
THE ENTIRE AREA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOR CMX...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVNG WITH             
WLY FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER WRN LK SUP UPSLOPING INTO THE KEWEENAW                
PENINSULA. ONCE LLVL FLOW BACKS TO MORE SW OVERNGT AND LOSES                    
OVERWATER COMPONENT...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUE BEFORE -SN IN             
ADVANCE OF NEXT LO PRES MOVES IN DURING THE MRNG AND DROPS VSBY/CIG             
TO IFR/MVFR RANGE.                                                              
AT SAW...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST INTO TUE BEFORE -SN IN ADVANCE OF            
NEXT LO PRES MOVES IN DURING THE MRNG AND DROPS VSBY/CIG TO IFR/MVFR            
RANGE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND REACH THE EASTERN GREAT            
LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE            
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL               
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
TO 35 KNOTS. CONSIDERED A GALE WARNING...BUT PLACEMENT OF SHARPER               
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS A MARGINAL EVENT DESPITE SOME              
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. ON                  
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH OF              
THE LOW TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THE LOW                
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ALONG THE TROUGH OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...LOOK            
FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY              
MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING            
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES REDEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.             
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS SAT               
INTO SAT NIGHT IF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST                    
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ007-014-085.                                          
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ001-              
     003.                                                                       
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KC                                                                   
SHORT TERM...KC                                                                 
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC/SF                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1247 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A                  
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A SHORTWAVE WORKING                 
THROUGH THIS TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND A LARGE DOME            
OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM A HIGH OVER NORTH OKLAHOMA                     
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS MOVING                
ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS              
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LES OVER THE WESTERN AND                 
NORTH CENTRAL U.P.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...                                            
LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT                
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. MAIN SHORT TERM             
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY                    
MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH             
THE FLOW IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BACK AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST.              
OUR LOCAL WRF AS WELL AS THE RUC13 SUGGEST THAT THE WIND SHIFT MAY              
BE A LITTLE SLOWER. A SLOWER BACKING OF WIND MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE              
STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO AREAS NORTH OF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...SO ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WARNING AREAS WILL                 
LIKELY BE IN THE 3-7 INCH RANGE JUST TONIGHT. SINCE THE WINDS HAVE              
BACKED TO 330 DEGREES...THE STRONGEST BANDS OF SNOW WILL REMAIN                 
ACROSS ALGER COUNTY AND GENERALLY OUT OF MARQUETTE COUNTY.                      
AS FOR THE ADVISORY AREAS FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL NOT MAKE            
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THOSE AREAS. THE MAIN BANDING OF LES WILL BE               
OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST DELTA COUNTY NEAR ROCK THIS EVENING. THE                 
LOCAL HIGH RES WRF SHOWING HEAVY BANDS SWEEPING THROUGH SCHOOLCRAFT             
AND LUCE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE            
SUPERIOR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...IT SHOULD CAUSE SOME                  
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. PERHAPS THE            
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN SCHOOLCRAFT INTO              
LUCE IS THE NORTHERLY FETCH INITIALLY...THEN WHEN THE WINDS DO START            
BACKING...THEY DO RATHER QUICKLY SO ANY BANDS WILL NOT SET UP FOR               
ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.                                                    
THE POCKET OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL HAS GENERALLY MISSED UPPER                   
MICHIGAN AND IS SWEEPING THROUGH WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE COLDER AIR              
IN MINNESOTA WILL WORK INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...                 
ESPECIALLY INLAND GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES. WITH WINDS CONTINUING              
AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS AROUND -5F...WILL STAY WITH WIND              
CHILL ADVYS FOR THIS AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                      
MON NIGHT...BACKING WINDS WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE                  
KEWEENAW OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. A PERIODS OF MID LEVEL AND SFC            
RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING               
THROUGH 06Z/TUE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BLO GUIDANCE VALUES INLAND.              
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO SUPPORTING LIGHT                
SNOW AS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS THROUGH THE              
REGION AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SFC             
TROF INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MDLS QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10-0.15 WITH            
SNOW WATER RATIO AVERAGING ABOUT 20/1 WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS            
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 1 TO 2               
G/GK AVBL MOISTURE DURING A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD OF BEST LIFT.                    
HOWEVER...S FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCEMENT COULD SUPPORT AMOUNTS INTO THE 3-5 INCH...ADVY RANGE                
FROM ESC TO ISQ.                                                                
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH             
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT LITTLE IN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION            
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
WED...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED A BIT SINCE                            
YESTERDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS                   
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH SE WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK COMPARED TO THE 00Z               
CYCLE BUT  THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAKER LESS PHASED SHRTWV              
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF                
WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE CWA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR                       
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS ACRS THE E HALF OF THE CWA. SOME              
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF NRLY FLOW MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL            
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. SO...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS N                
CNTRL WILL BE MARGINAL.                                                         
THU-SUN...THE FCST REFLECTS THE HPC PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF INTO THE                
WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS SLOWER IN EJECTING A SHRTWV FROM THE SW                
CONUS AND SHOWS A WEAKER NRN STREAM SHRTWV BRUSHING THE UPPER LAKES             
FRI OR FRI NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING A STRONG SHRTWV AND SFC LOW INTO THE            
WRN LAKE SUN. THE ECMWF SUPPORTED BY THE CMC/UKMET EMPHASIZE A MORE             
A STRONGER PHASED MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN             
LAKES FRI INTO SAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRENGTH             
OR POSITION OF ANY SFC LOW OR FRONTS. IF THE SYSTEM TRENDS TOWARD               
THE STRONGER 12Z ECMWF...PCPN MIX WOULD AFFECT MUCH OF UPPER MI AS              
850 MB TEMP CLIMBS TO NEAR 5C INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE 00Z ECMWF                
KEPT THE WARMER AIR FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD KEEP PCPN MAINLY SNOW.            
FOR NOW...KEPT MENTION OF RAIN MIX OVER THE FAR SE TIL BETTER                   
AGREEMENT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE IN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOSTLY IMPACTING              
CMX WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT EVEN SAW IS SEEING AN OCCASIONAL MVFR             
VSBY. EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS               
WINDS STAY NW AND COLD AIR FLOWING IN GENERATES MORE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY               
MONDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES...THANKS TO BACKING WINDS AND DRY AIR                  
MOVING IN FROM MN. THE RESPONSE WILL BE QUICKEST AT SAW SINCE A                 
BACKING WIND TO THE WEST IS NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT             
AS IT IS AT CMX. BY EARLY EVENING...BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE VFR...               
WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING             
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GALES CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD DIMINISH                  
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN WLY AND THEN SLY BY MON NIGHT.                
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR GALES IN THE SLY FLOW TUE AFTN INTO EVENING.             
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM...BUT THE             
00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS NE GALES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE GFS MUCH WEAKER.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ007-013-014-             
     084-085.                                                                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                     
     MIZ002>006-009.                                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001.                   
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR MIZ009-010.                    
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY                 
     FOR LSZ162-250-251-263>267.                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/                       
    MONDAY FOR LSZ240>249.                                                      
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ248>251.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DLG                                                                  
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1041 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A                  
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A SHORTWAVE WORKING                 
THROUGH THIS TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND A LARGE DOME            
OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM A HIGH OVER NORTH OKLAHOMA                     
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS MOVING                
ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS              
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LES OVER THE WESTERN AND                 
NORTH CENTRAL U.P.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...                                            
LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT                
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. MAIN SHORT TERM             
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY                    
MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH             
THE FLOW IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BACK AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST.              
OUR LOCAL WRF AS WELL AS THE RUC13 SUGGEST THAT THE WIND SHIFT MAY              
BE A LITTLE SLOWER. A SLOWER BACKING OF WIND MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE              
STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO AREAS NORTH OF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...SO ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WARNING AREAS WILL                 
LIKELY BE IN THE 3-7 INCH RANGE JUST TONIGHT. SINCE THE WINDS HAVE              
BACKED TO 330 DEGREES...THE STRONGEST BANDS OF SNOW WILL REMAIN                 
ACROSS ALGER COUNTY AND GENERALLY OUT OF MARQUETTE COUNTY.                      
AS FOR THE ADVISORY AREAS FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL NOT MAKE            
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THOSE AREAS. THE MAIN BANDING OF LES WILL BE               
OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST DELTA COUNTY NEAR ROCK THIS EVENING. THE                 
LOCAL HIGH RES WRF SHOWING HEAVY BANDS SWEEPING THROUGH SCHOOLCRAFT             
AND LUCE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE            
SUPERIOR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...IT SHOULD CAUSE SOME                  
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. PERHAPS THE            
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN SCHOOLCRAFT INTO              
LUCE IS THE NORTHERLY FETCH INITIALLY...THEN WHEN THE WINDS DO START            
BACKING...THEY DO RATHER QUICKLY SO ANY BANDS WILL NOT SET UP FOR               
ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.                                                    
THE POCKET OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL HAS GENERALLY MISSED UPPER                   
MICHIGAN AND IS SWEEPING THROUGH WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE COLDER AIR              
IN MINNESOTA WILL WORK INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...                 
ESPECIALLY INLAND GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES. WITH WINDS CONTINUING              
AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS AROUND -5F...WILL STAY WITH WIND              
CHILL ADVYS FOR THIS AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                      
MON NIGHT...BACKING WINDS WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE                  
KEWEENAW OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. A PERIODS OF MID LEVEL AND SFC            
RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING               
THROUGH 06Z/TUE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BLO GUIDANCE VALUES INLAND.              
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO SUPPORTING LIGHT                
SNOW AS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS THROUGH THE              
REGION AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SFC             
TROF INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MDLS QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10-0.15 WITH            
SNOW WATER RATIO AVERAGING ABOUT 20/1 WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS            
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 1 TO 2               
G/GK AVBL MOISTURE DURING A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD OF BEST LIFT.                    
HOWEVER...S FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCEMENT COULD SUPPORT AMOUNTS INTO THE 3-5 INCH...ADVY RANGE                
FROM ESC TO ISQ.                                                                
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH             
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT LITTLE IN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION            
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
WED...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED A BIT SINCE                            
YESTERDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS                   
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH SE WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK COMPARED TO THE 00Z               
CYCLE BUT  THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAKER LESS PHASED SHRTWV              
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF                
WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE CWA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR                       
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS ACRS THE E HALF OF THE CWA. SOME              
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF NRLY FLOW MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL            
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. SO...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS N                
CNTRL WILL BE MARGINAL.                                                         
THU-SUN...THE FCST REFLECTS THE HPC PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF INTO THE                
WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS SLOWER IN EJECTING A SHRTWV FROM THE SW                
CONUS AND SHOWS A WEAKER NRN STREAM SHRTWV BRUSHING THE UPPER LAKES             
FRI OR FRI NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING A STRONG SHRTWV AND SFC LOW INTO THE            
WRN LAKE SUN. THE ECMWF SUPPORTED BY THE CMC/UKMET EMPHASIZE A MORE             
A STRONGER PHASED MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN             
LAKES FRI INTO SAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRENGTH             
OR POSITION OF ANY SFC LOW OR FRONTS. IF THE SYSTEM TRENDS TOWARD               
THE STRONGER 12Z ECMWF...PCPN MIX WOULD AFFECT MUCH OF UPPER MI AS              
850 MB TEMP CLIMBS TO NEAR 5C INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE 00Z ECMWF                
KEPT THE WARMER AIR FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD KEEP PCPN MAINLY SNOW.            
FOR NOW...KEPT MENTION OF RAIN MIX OVER THE FAR SE TIL BETTER                   
AGREEMENT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LES BANDS CONTRIBUTE TO A VARIATION FROM MVFR TO IFR AT KCMX THIS               
EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS PRODUCING BLSN IT SEEMS REASONABLE.                   
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BEFORE BECOMING IFR AGAIN AS WINDS              
SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUGGESTS                
STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING WITH MORE SNOW SO WE COULD SEE SOME LIFR            
CONDITIONS AT CMX BEFORE IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING. AS FOR                     
SAW...THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIFR WILL LIKELY BE SEEN IN THE            
NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AS THE CONVERGENT                
BAND OVER MQT REMAINS SOUTHERLY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST LATER             
THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL                 
IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND DRY              
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GALES CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD DIMINISH                  
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN WLY AND THEN SLY BY MON NIGHT.                
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR GALES IN THE SLY FLOW TUE AFTN INTO EVENING.             
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM...BUT THE             
00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS NE GALES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE GFS MUCH WEAKER.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ007-013-014-             
     084-085.                                                                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                     
     MIZ002>006-009.                                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001.                   
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY                
     FOR MIZ009-010.                                                            
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     MIZ010>012.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY                 
     FOR LSZ162-250-251-263>267.                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ265>267.                       
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY                
     FOR LSZ240>249.                                                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ248>251.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DLG                                                                  
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
640 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
...UPDATE FOR AVIATION...                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS                   
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE BEST SNOW SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTH                  
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.                       
INTERESTINGLY...UPPER MICHIGAN IS THE WARMEST AREA IN THE MIDWEST               
DUE TO WARM AIR WRAPPING INTO THE U.P. FROM THE EAST. OF EVEN MORE              
INTEREST...GRB IS CURRENTLY -2C WHILE MNM AND IMT ARE IN THE TEENS              
ABOVE ZERO. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY HAS ESSENTIALLY SET UP JUST SOUTH OF            
THE WI BORDER AND THE NLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE               
COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE UP TODAY. A SHORT WAVE OVER NW MN WILL                
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REGION MON MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                           
LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT                
BLOWING AND SOME DRIFTING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. MAIN SHORT             
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LES TONIGHT INTO MON                  
MORNING. STRONG NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE               
FLOW IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BACK AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST.                  
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW WILL BACK RATHER QUICKLY                
THIS EVENING...OUR LOCAL WRF AS WELL AS THE RUC13 SUGGEST THAT THIS             
WIND SHIFT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER. A SLOWER BACKING OF WIND MAKES               
SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO AREAS N              
OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...SO ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WARNING AREAS              
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 3-7 INCH RANGE AGAIN TONIGHT. AT THIS                     
TIME...THERE IS NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO               
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THE BEST BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BE                    
SITUATED ACROSS FAR EASTERN MQT INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY THIS                  
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS BACK.              
EVENTUALLY...THE WINDS WILL TURN TO 330 DEG WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR              
THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE ACROSS ALGER COUNTY AND GENERALLY OUT OF                
MARQUETTE COUNTY. WITH THE WINDS GENERALLY 360 DEG TODAY...KEWEENAW             
COUNTY RECEIVED VERY LITTLE SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO              
THE NW LATER TONIGHT...THAT STILL IS NOT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR              
KEWEENAW COUNTY...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CONVERGENCE. IN                  
FACT...KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY SEE BETTER SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE PBL                 
WINDS TURN WESTERLY.                                                            
AS FOR THE ADVISORY AREAS FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL NOT MAKE            
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THOSE AREAS. NORTHERN DELTA COUNTY MAY SEE THE             
MOST SNOW THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN BANDING INTO EXTREME NW DELTA              
COUNTY NEAR ROCK. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS BAND WILL END UP SHIFTING              
EAST THIS EVENING SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HELD BELOW WARNING                 
CRITERIA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WITH THE             
FLOW BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-BANDED SNOW INTO AREAS NEAR              
SENEY ESPECIALLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM EVEN A LITTLE MORE                     
CONCERNED FOR THIS AREA GIVEN THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NW MN               
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UP RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME THE WINDS               
ALIGN INTO NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. PERHAPS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR             
FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN SCHOOLCRAFT INTO LUCE IS THE NLY FETCH             
INITIALLY...THEN WHEN THE WINDS DO START BACKING...THEY DO RATHER               
QUICKLY SO ANY BANDS WILL NOT SET UP FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF                 
TIME. HOWEVER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED              
CLOSELY FOR WARNING AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY  MORNING.                     
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER INTERESTING THIS                   
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY IN            
UPPER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS GENERALLY MISSED UPPER              
MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTH. IT/S AMAZING THAT GRB IS -2F...WHILE MNM AND             
IMT ARE WELL INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED                
THAT SOME OF THE COLDER AIR IN MN WILL WORK INTO WESTERN UPPER                  
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES.               
WITH WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10+ MPH OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS AROUND                 
-5F...WILL GO WITH WIND CHILL ADVYS FOR THIS AREA INTO MONDAY                   
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                      
MON NIGHT...BACKING WINDS WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE                  
KEWEENAW OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. A PERIODS OF MID LEVEL AND SFC            
RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING               
THROUGH 06Z/TUE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BLO GUIDANCE VALUES INLAND.              
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO SUPPORTING LIGHT                
SNOW AS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS THROUGH THE              
REGION AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SFC             
TROF INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MDLS QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10-0.15 WITH            
SNOW WATER RATIO AVERAGING ABOUT 20/1 WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS            
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 1 TO 2               
G/GK AVBL MOISTURE DURING A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD OF BEST LIFT.                    
HOWEVER...S FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCEMENT COULD SUPPORT AMOUNTS INTO THE 3-5 INCH...ADVY RANGE                
FROM ESC TO ISQ.                                                                
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH             
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT LITTLE IN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION            
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
WED...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED A BIT SINCE                            
YESTERDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS                   
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH SE WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK COMPARED TO THE 00Z               
CYCLE BUT  THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAKER LESS PHASED SHRTWV              
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF                
WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE CWA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR                       
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS ACRS THE E HALF OF THE CWA. SOME              
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF NRLY FLOW MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL            
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. SO...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS N                
CNTRL WILL BE MARGINAL.                                                         
THU-SUN...THE FCST REFLECTS THE HPC PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF INTO THE                
WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS SLOWER IN EJECTING A SHRTWV FROM THE SW                
CONUS AND SHOWS A WEAKER NRN STREAM SHRTWV BRUSHING THE UPPER LAKES             
FRI OR FRI NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING A STRONG SHRTWV AND SFC LOW INTO THE            
WRN LAKE SUN. THE ECMWF SUPPORTED BY THE CMC/UKMET EMPHASIZE A MORE             
A STRONGER PHASED MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN             
LAKES FRI INTO SAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRENGTH             
OR POSITION OF ANY SFC LOW OR FRONTS. IF THE SYSTEM TRENDS TOWARD               
THE STRONGER 12Z ECMWF...PCPN MIX WOULD AFFECT MUCH OF UPPER MI AS              
850 MB TEMP CLIMBS TO NEAR 5C INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE 00Z ECMWF                
KEPT THE WARMER AIR FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD KEEP PCPN MAINLY SNOW.            
FOR NOW...KEPT MENTION OF RAIN MIX OVER THE FAR SE TIL BETTER                   
AGREEMENT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LES BANDS CONTRIBUTE TO A VARIATION FROM MVFR TO IFR AT KCMX THIS               
EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS PRODUCING BLSN IT SEEMS REASONABLE.                   
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BEFORE BECOMING IFR AGAIN AS WINDS              
SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUGGESTS                
STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING WITH MORE SNOW SO WE COULD SEE SOME LIFR            
CONDITIONS AT CMX BEFORE IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING. AS FOR                     
SAW...THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIFR WILL LIKELY BE SEEN IN THE            
NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AS THE CONVERGENT                
BAND OVER MQT REMAINS SOUTHERLY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST LATER             
THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL                 
IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND DRY              
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GALES CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD DIMINISH                  
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN WLY AND THEN SLY BY MON NIGHT.                
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR GALES IN THE SLY FLOW TUE AFTN INTO EVENING.             
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM...BUT THE             
00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS NE GALES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE GFS MUCH WEAKER.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ007-013-014-             
     084-085.                                                                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                     
     MIZ002>006-009.                                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001.                   
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY                
     FOR MIZ009-010.                                                            
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     MIZ010>012.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY                 
     FOR LSZ162-250-251-263>267.                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ265>267.                       
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY                
     FOR LSZ240>249.                                                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ248>251.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS                   
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE BEST SNOW SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTH                  
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.                       
INTERESTINGLY...UPPER MICHIGAN IS THE WARMEST AREA IN THE MIDWEST               
DUE TO WARM AIR WRAPPING INTO THE U.P. FROM THE EAST. OF EVEN MORE              
INTEREST...GRB IS CURRENTLY -2C WHILE MNM AND IMT ARE IN THE TEENS              
ABOVE ZERO. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY HAS ESSENTIALLY SET UP JUST SOUTH OF            
THE WI BORDER AND THE NLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE               
COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE UP TODAY. A SHORT WAVE OVER NW MN WILL                
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REGION MON MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                           
LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT                
BLOWING AND SOME DRIFTING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. MAIN SHORT             
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LES TONIGHT INTO MON                  
MORNING. STRONG NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE               
FLOW IS SLOWLY STARTING TO BACK AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST.                  
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW WILL BACK RATHER QUICKLY                
THIS EVENING...OUR LOCAL WRF AS WELL AS THE RUC13 SUGGEST THAT THIS             
WIND SHIFT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER. A SLOWER BACKING OF WIND MAKES               
SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO AREAS N              
OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...SO ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WARNING AREAS              
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 3-7 INCH RANGE AGAIN TONIGHT. AT THIS                     
TIME...THERE IS NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO               
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THE BEST BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BE                    
SITUATED ACROSS FAR EASTERN MQT INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY THIS                  
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS BACK.              
EVENTUALLY...THE WINDS WILL TURN TO 330 DEG WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR              
THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE ACROSS ALGER COUNTY AND GENERALLY OUT OF                
MARQUETTE COUNTY. WITH THE WINDS GENERALLY 360 DEG TODAY...KEWEENAW             
COUNTY RECEIVED VERY LITTLE SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO              
THE NW LATER TONIGHT...THAT STILL IS NOT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR              
KEWEENAW COUNTY...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CONVERGENCE. IN                  
FACT...KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY SEE BETTER SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE PBL                 
WINDS TURN WESTERLY.                                                            
AS FOR THE ADVISORY AREAS FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL NOT MAKE            
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THOSE AREAS. NORTHERN DELTA COUNTY MAY SEE THE             
MOST SNOW THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN BANDING INTO EXTREME NW DELTA              
COUNTY NEAR ROCK. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS BAND WILL END UP SHIFTING              
EAST THIS EVENING SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HELD BELOW WARNING                 
CRITERIA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WITH THE             
FLOW BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-BANDED SNOW INTO AREAS NEAR              
SENEY ESPECIALLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM EVEN A LITTLE MORE                     
CONCERNED FOR THIS AREA GIVEN THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NW MN               
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UP RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME THE WINDS               
ALIGN INTO NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. PERHAPS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR             
FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN SCHOOLCRAFT INTO LUCE IS THE NLY FETCH             
INITIALLY...THEN WHEN THE WINDS DO START BACKING...THEY DO RATHER               
QUICKLY SO ANY BANDS WILL NOT SET UP FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF                 
TIME. HOWEVER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED              
CLOSELY FOR WARNING AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY  MORNING.                     
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER INTERESTING THIS                   
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY IN            
UPPER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS GENERALLY MISSED UPPER              
MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTH. IT/S AMAZING THAT GRB IS -2F...WHILE MNM AND             
IMT ARE WELL INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED                
THAT SOME OF THE COLDER AIR IN MN WILL WORK INTO WESTERN UPPER                  
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES.               
WITH WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10+ MPH OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS AROUND                 
-5F...WILL GO WITH WIND CHILL ADVYS FOR THIS AREA INTO MONDAY                   
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                      
MON NIGHT...BACKING WINDS WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE                  
KEWEENAW OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. A PERIODS OF MID LEVEL AND SFC            
RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING               
THROUGH 06Z/TUE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BLO GUIDANCE VALUES INLAND.              
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO SUPPORTING LIGHT                
SNOW AS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS THROUGH THE              
REGION AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SFC             
TROF INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MDLS QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10-0.15 WITH            
SNOW WATER RATIO AVERAGING ABOUT 20/1 WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS            
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 1 TO 2               
G/GK AVBL MOISTURE DURING A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD OF BEST LIFT.                    
HOWEVER...S FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCEMENT COULD SUPPORT AMOUNTS INTO THE 3-5 INCH...ADVY RANGE                
FROM ESC TO ISQ.                                                                
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH             
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT LITTLE IN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION            
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
WED...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED A BIT SINCE                            
YESTERDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS                   
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH SE WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK COMPARED TO THE 00Z               
CYCLE BUT  THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAKER LESS PHASED SHRTWV              
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF                
WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE CWA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR                       
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS ACRS THE E HALF OF THE CWA. SOME              
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF NRLY FLOW MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL            
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. SO...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS N                
CNTRL WILL BE MARGINAL.                                                         
THU-SUN...THE FCST REFLECTS THE HPC PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF INTO THE                
WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS SLOWER IN EJECTING A SHRTWV FROM THE SW                
CONUS AND SHOWS A WEAKER NRN STREAM SHRTWV BRUSHING THE UPPER LAKES             
FRI OR FRI NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING A STRONG SHRTWV AND SFC LOW INTO THE            
WRN LAKE SUN. THE ECMWF SUPPORTED BY THE CMC/UKMET EMPHASIZE A MORE             
A STRONGER PHASED MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN             
LAKES FRI INTO SAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRENGTH             
OR POSITION OF ANY SFC LOW OR FRONTS. IF THE SYSTEM TRENDS TOWARD               
THE STRONGER 12Z ECMWF...PCPN MIX WOULD AFFECT MUCH OF UPPER MI AS              
850 MB TEMP CLIMBS TO NEAR 5C INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE 00Z ECMWF                
KEPT THE WARMER AIR FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD KEEP PCPN MAINLY SNOW.            
FOR NOW...KEPT MENTION OF RAIN MIX OVER THE FAR SE TIL BETTER                   
AGREEMENT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CMX VSBY REMAINS IFR. NORMALLY...NORTHERLY WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT IFR             
LES...BUT GIVEN THE BLSN IT SEEMS REASONABLE. NORTHERLY WINDS DO NOT            
NORMALLY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME               
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BEFORE BECOMING IFR AGAIN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE             
NW BY THIS EVENING. THE NUMERICAL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STRONGER WINDS                
THIS EVENING WITH MORE SNOW SO WE COULD SEE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS                
OVERNIGHT AT CMX BEFORE IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING. AS FOR SAW...THE            
WORST CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIFR WILL LIKELY BE SEEN IN THE NEXT 3-6             
HOURS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AS THE CONVERGENT BAND OVER               
MQT MOVES SOUTH TO SAW BY 1830Z. AS THE WINDS SHIFT NW THIS                     
EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MON             
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GALES CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD DIMINISH                  
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN WLY AND THEN SLY BY MON NIGHT.                
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR GALES IN THE SLY FLOW TUE AFTN INTO EVENING.             
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM...BUT THE             
00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS NE GALES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE GFS MUCH WEAKER.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ007-013-014-             
     084-085.                                                                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                     
     MIZ002>006-009.                                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001.                   
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY                
     FOR MIZ009-010.                                                            
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     MIZ010>012.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY                 
     FOR LSZ162-250-251-263>267.                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ265>267.                       
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ MONDAY                
     FOR LSZ240>249.                                                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ248>251.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1235 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SNOW HAS SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH AND WRN CWA. DRY AIR ABOVE H9 EVIDENT            
ON EVENING TAMDAR AT ESC AND ON THE 00Z RAOB AT APX IS LEADING TO               
JUST FLURRIES IN THE EAST. DESPITE PERISISTENT VSBY 1-2SM...SNOW HAS            
ONLY ADDED UP TO 2 INCHES AT THE MOST FOR THE SOUTH. THUS FAR...                
LOOKS LIKE LOWER SNOW RATIOS...10-15:1...ARE LIMITING SNOW AMOUNTS.             
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN MAY STILL IMPACT NRN MEMOMINEE INTO                 
DELTA COUNTY...BUT WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS AND LACK OF A CONVERGENCE               
AREA SETTING UP YET...DID NOT EMPHASIZE REAL HEAVY SNOW FOR THOSE               
AREAS AND KEPT ADVY GOING. SPOTTER REPORT FM KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS              
EVENING DID INDICATE A FLUFFIER SNOW IS OCCURRING THERE.                        
OVERALL...DO TO THE LOWER SNOW RATIOS AND LESS QPF PROGGED THAN                 
EARLIER...LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AROUND AN INCH MOST            
SPOTS. DID NOT ALTER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS WHERE ESE WINDS PROVIDE             
POTENTIAL LAKE CONTRIBUTION (KEWEENAW AND SOUTH CNTRL). THOSE SPOTS             
COULD STILL SEE NIGHTTIME ACCUMS UP TO 5 INCHES.                                
LOW TEMPS OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING AND TEMPS HAVE NOW BECOME               
STEADY OR WILL RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES TO SUNDAY OR              
SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW/WITH SFC TROUGH                  
PASSAGE STILL ON TRACK TO COME ACROSS KEWEENAW IN THE MORNING...THEN            
INTO THE REST OF THE LK SUPERIOR ZONES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.                 
AFTER THAT...FOCUSED HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE AFTN OVR FAR WEST AS                  
BETTER DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW AND H85                 
TEMPS NEAR -18C. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MAY KNOCK DOWN SNOW OVR THE              
CNTRL SLIGHTLY. STRONG WINDS (30-35 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER) WILL              
BLOW AND DRIFT SNOW SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING.              
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE IN THIS REGARD. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP ARE             
OUT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGE AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH             
DAKOTA...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGIONS. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS              
LOW AND ARE OVER MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN            
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IOWA NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST               
MANITOBA. THIS TROUGH IS SEPARATING A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO                
FROM A HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW IS OVER              
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES               
EAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                               
STRONG LIFT PER 700-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE                 
THROUGH 20KFT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SYNOPTIC             
SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS INTO FORECAST AREA               
AFTER 00Z. MAIN SNOW WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 00Z. A SURFACE LOW                  
EJECTING OUT OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RESULTING             
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY LES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH               
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN             
EFFECT FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/ALGER. ADVISORIES WILL KEEP              
ELSEWHERE AS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.                
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE OF LES MAY FALL ACROSS            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY...AREAS OF KEWEENAW COUNTY               
AND INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THIS IS FURTHER                    
SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF MODEL. CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY...FOR POSSIBLE NEED FOR             
WARNING. HOWEVER...WRF/NAM12 SHOWING WINDS BACKING NORTH SHORTLY                
AFTER SUNRISE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...AND             
LACK OF TERRAIN SUPPORT OF LES. THUS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT                 
ADVISORIES FOR THAT AREA TOO. AFTER COORDINATED WITH GRB DECIDED TO             
STAY WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                     
SUN NIGHT...EXPECT TRANSITION FROM LAKE ENHANCED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
WITH CONTINUED VERY FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS WITH GOOD                  
UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ THROUGH 06Z/MON. EVEN THOUGH SNOW/WATER                
RATIOS SHOULD BE AOA 30/1 DURING THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED WINDY             
CONDITIONS...FRACTURING AND DRIFTING SHOULD REDUCE ACTUAL/OBSERVED              
SNOW TOTALS. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH               
RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS...WITH THE GREATEST             
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE LIFT WILL OCCUR.             
OVERNIGHT...WITH BACKING WINDS...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS/ EXIT OF            
DEEPER MOISTURE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL TAPER OFF AND LES SHOULD SHIFT            
TOWARD NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE                  
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.             
AS WINDS BACK TO WRLY BY MIDDAY MON...LES WILL SHIFT INTO                       
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE UPPER MI WHILE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER              
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN MON                  
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV...TEMPS MAY PLUMMET CLOSER TO               
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE VALUES NEAR -10F WELL INLAND.                                
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL AND SFC               
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF              
SNOW. MDLS TEMP/UVV/RH PROFILE SUGGEST SNOW/WATER MAY BE RELATIVELY             
LOW WITH BEST LIFT ABOVE THE DGZ. SO WITH QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10 TO             
0.20 RANGE AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS NEAR 15/1 ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN              
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WOULD BE EXPECTED.                                        
WED...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER            
STRONGER SHRTWV AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET                
FAVORED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS              
AND CMC DID NOT. IF THE EURO MODELS VERIFY...ANOTHER HEAVY                      
SNOW EVENT WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW IN N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                              
THU-SAT...THE FCST GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF/CMC               
MDLS SCENARIO WHICH ALSO HAD DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GFS                    
ENSEMBLES. THE 06Z/12Z WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING A WEAKER NRN                  
STREAM SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN TIER AND DELAYING THE EJECTION OF A               
STRONGER SHRTWV FROM THE SW CONUS. SO...WITH A SW FLOW PATTERN AND              
STRONGER SE CONUS RIDGE...A SHRTWV AND SFC LOW TRACK THROUGH OR WEST            
OF CNTRL UPPER MI COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN                          
(SN/FZRA/PL/RA) AND A BRIEF WARMUP AOA FREEZING BY LATE FRI.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH SITES TONIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE            
AND SURFACE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH AREA. EXPECT IFR VSBY/CIGS WITH THE             
SNOW. PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW/POTENTIAL VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS                
AROUND 12Z AT CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...THEN BY                    
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AT SAW. IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY SNOW THROUGH               
SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITE DUE             
TO LK EFFECT SNOW...STRONG NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS...AND                 
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT SAW               
AND CMX BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND                
DIMINISHING WINDS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OUT OF THE                     
NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND A LOW PRESSURE OVER              
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO               
NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 OR              
40 KT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH OUT              
OF CANADA. THIS COLD AIR WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING                  
SPRAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND GALE FORCE            
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE              
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS             
ON SUPERIOR SHOULD STILL STAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. A            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON                     
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND                   
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALES CRITERIA WITH THIS                     
SYSTEM...THOUGH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ON TUESDAY AND THE              
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND ON IT ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE                
FROM 15 TO 30 KNOTS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ004-013-084.           
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     MIZ007-014-085.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                   
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR                  
     MIZ005-006.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MIZ010>012.               
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR               
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR                
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                   
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/                  
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.                                                         
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY                  
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.                          
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR                    
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1135 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SNOW HAS SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH AND WRN CWA. DRY AIR ABOVE H9 EVIDENT            
ON EVENING TAMDAR AT ESC AND ON THE 00Z RAOB AT APX IS LEADING TO               
JUST FLURRIES IN THE EAST. DESPITE PERISISTENT VSBY 1-2SM...SNOW HAS            
ONLY ADDED UP TO 2 INCHES AT THE MOST FOR THE SOUTH. THUS FAR...                
LOOKS LIKE LOWER SNOW RATIOS...10-15:1...ARE LIMITING SNOW AMOUNTS.             
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN MAY STILL IMPACT NRN MEMOMINEE INTO                 
DELTA COUNTY...BUT WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS AND LACK OF A CONVERGENCE               
AREA SETTING UP YET...DID NOT EMPHASIZE REAL HEAVY SNOW FOR THOSE               
AREAS AND KEPT ADVY GOING. SPOTTER REPORT FM KEWEENAW EARLIER THIS              
EVENING DID INDICATE A FLUFFIER SNOW IS OCCURRING THERE.                        
OVERALL...DO TO THE LOWER SNOW RATIOS AND LESS QPF PROGGED THAN                 
EARLIER...LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AROUND AN INCH MOST            
SPOTS. DID NOT ALTER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS WHERE ESE WINDS PROVIDE             
POTENTIAL LAKE CONTRIBUTION (KEWEENAW AND SOUTH CNTRL). THOSE SPOTS             
COULD STILL SEE NIGHTTIME ACCUMS UP TO 5 INCHES.                                
LOW TEMPS OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING AND TEMPS HAVE NOW BECOME               
STEADY OR WILL RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES TO SUNDAY OR              
SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW/WITH SFC TROUGH                  
PASSAGE STILL ON TRACK TO COME ACROSS KEWEENAW IN THE MORNING...THEN            
INTO THE REST OF THE LK SUPERIOR ZONES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.                 
AFTER THAT...FOCUSED HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE AFTN OVR FAR WEST AS                  
BETTER DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW AND H85                 
TEMPS NEAR -18C. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MAY KNOCK DOWN SNOW OVR THE              
CNTRL SLIGHTLY. STRONG WINDS (30-35 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER) WILL              
BLOW AND DRIFT SNOW SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING.              
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE IN THIS REGARD. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP ARE             
OUT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGE AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH             
DAKOTA...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGIONS. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS              
LOW AND ARE OVER MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN            
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IOWA NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST               
MANITOBA. THIS TROUGH IS SEPARATING A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO                
FROM A HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW IS OVER              
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES               
EAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                               
STRONG LIFT PER 700-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE                 
THROUGH 20KFT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SYNOPTIC             
SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS INTO FORECAST AREA               
AFTER 00Z. MAIN SNOW WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 00Z. A SURFACE LOW                  
EJECTING OUT OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RESULTING             
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY LES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH               
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN             
EFFECT FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/ALGER. ADVISORIES WILL KEEP              
ELSEWHERE AS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.                
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE OF LES MAY FALL ACROSS            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY...AREAS OF KEWEENAW COUNTY               
AND INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THIS IS FURTHER                    
SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF MODEL. CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY...FOR POSSIBLE NEED FOR             
WARNING. HOWEVER...WRF/NAM12 SHOWING WINDS BACKING NORTH SHORTLY                
AFTER SUNRISE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...AND             
LACK OF TERRAIN SUPPORT OF LES. THUS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT                 
ADVISORIES FOR THAT AREA TOO. AFTER COORDINATED WITH GRB DECIDED TO             
STAY WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                     
SUN NIGHT...EXPECT TRANSITION FROM LAKE ENHANCED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
WITH CONTINUED VERY FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS WITH GOOD                  
UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ THROUGH 06Z/MON. EVEN THOUGH SNOW/WATER                
RATIOS SHOULD BE AOA 30/1 DURING THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED WINDY             
CONDITIONS...FRACTURING AND DRIFTING SHOULD REDUCE ACTUAL/OBSERVED              
SNOW TOTALS. NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH               
RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS...WITH THE GREATEST             
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE LIFT WILL OCCUR.             
OVERNIGHT...WITH BACKING WINDS...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS/ EXIT OF            
DEEPER MOISTURE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL TAPER OFF AND LES SHOULD SHIFT            
TOWARD NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE                  
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.             
AS WINDS BACK TO WRLY BY MIDDAY MON...LES WILL SHIFT INTO                       
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE UPPER MI WHILE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER              
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN MON                  
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV...TEMPS MAY PLUMMET CLOSER TO               
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE VALUES NEAR -10F WELL INLAND.                                
TUE...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL AND SFC               
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF              
SNOW. MDLS TEMP/UVV/RH PROFILE SUGGEST SNOW/WATER MAY BE RELATIVELY             
LOW WITH BEST LIFT ABOVE THE DGZ. SO WITH QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10 TO             
0.20 RANGE AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS NEAR 15/1 ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN              
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WOULD BE EXPECTED.                                        
WED...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER            
STRONGER SHRTWV AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET                
FAVORED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS              
AND CMC DID NOT. IF THE EURO MODELS VERIFY...ANOTHER HEAVY                      
SNOW EVENT WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW IN N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                              
THU-SAT...THE FCST GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF/CMC               
MDLS SCENARIO WHICH ALSO HAD DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GFS                    
ENSEMBLES. THE 06Z/12Z WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING A WEAKER NRN                  
STREAM SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN TIER AND DELAYING THE EJECTION OF A               
STRONGER SHRTWV FROM THE SW CONUS. SO...WITH A SW FLOW PATTERN AND              
STRONGER SE CONUS RIDGE...A SHRTWV AND SFC LOW TRACK THROUGH OR WEST            
OF CNTRL UPPER MI COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN                          
(SN/FZRA/PL/RA) AND A BRIEF WARMUP AOA FREEZING BY LATE FRI.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SNOW IS SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER MICHIGAN AS                
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH PUSH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT LGT             
SNOW...MOSTLY IFR VSBY/CIGS...TO START UP AT BOTH SITES BY MIDNIGHT.            
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW/POTENTIAL VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS LATE                 
TONIGHT AT CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...THEN BY LATE                  
SUNDAY MORNING AT SAW. IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY             
AFTN...EXPECT VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITE DUE TO LK EFFECT               
SNOW...STRONG NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS...AND SIGNIFICANT                  
BLOWING SNOW.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OUT OF THE                     
NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND A LOW PRESSURE OVER              
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO               
NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 OR              
40 KT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH OUT              
OF CANADA. THIS COLD AIR WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING                  
SPRAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND GALE FORCE            
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE              
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS             
ON SUPERIOR SHOULD STILL STAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. A            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON                     
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND                   
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALES CRITERIA WITH THIS                     
SYSTEM...THOUGH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ON TUESDAY AND THE              
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND ON IT ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE                
FROM 15 TO 30 KNOTS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ004-013-084.           
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     MIZ007-014-085.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                   
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR                  
     MIZ005-006.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MIZ010>012.               
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR               
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR                
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                   
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/                  
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.                                                         
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY                  
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.                          
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR                    
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1113 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/353 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008/                                                    
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND                   
TOMORROW MORNING AND CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO               
WEDNESDAY. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES                
STILL LOOK GOOD...SO HAVE LEFT THEM AS IS.                                      
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS NOT CAPTURING HOW COLD THIS                  
AIRMASS IS AND ALL BUT THE RUC 2-METER TEMPERATURES WERE VERIFYING              
TOO WARM AT 18Z....PARTICULARLY OVER PART OF NRN MO INTO IA. SO                 
WENT 2-5 DEGREES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH               
BELOW ZERO LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE                   
ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS               
HIGH THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO               
THE PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF SLOWLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND               
WINDS WILL CAUSE WINDS CHILLS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT.                  
ALSO CUT BACK ON HIGHS TOMORROW AND CONTINUED TO SHOW NEAR STEADY OR            
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS            
IN BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.            
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND                 
STRENGTH OF TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.                 
EXPECT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS DECENT              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ON NOSE OF BROAD 65KT LOW               
LEVEL JET UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS               
FAVOR A MIX OF FZRA/PL IN THE SRN CWA AND FZRA/PL/SN IN THE NRN                 
CWA TO START...THOUGH DO EXPECT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS                         
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY 21Z UP TO I-70. PRECIPITATION              
WILL THEN BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS               
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT                         
ACCUMULATION OF ICE AND SNOW OVER THE AREA BASED ON EXPECTED LIGHT              
QPF ON TUESDAY. ECMWF/NAM ALSO SHOWING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                  
SETTING UP OVER NRN MO/SRN IA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...SO THINK THERE                 
WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW LATE TUESDAY               
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE AREA ON                
WEDNESDAY AS THROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY LATE IN THE WEEK.               
LEANED TOWARD THE ECWMF/CANADIAN WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH                    
ACROSS MO/IL ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE SLOWER GFS. TEMPERATURES               
FAVOR GOING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANGER OVER TO              
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUMPED UP GFS MOS                         
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING WHICH LOOK TOO COLD FOR THE AMOUNT               
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...GMOS TEMPS LOOK GOOD.                        
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/1104 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2008/                                                   
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...STILL SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW LVL CLOUDS                
FM 2000-3000 FT ACRS THE CWA. MAY INCLUDE SCT025 IN THE TAFS LT                 
TGT BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL GO BKN. GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE                 
W-NWLY SFC WNDS SHOULD CONT LT TGT ALONG WITH A LOSS OF GUSTINESS               
AS THE SFC HI CNTR MOVES SEWD TO SWRN MO BY 12Z MON. SFC WNDS WILL              
BACK ARND TO A S-SELY DIRECTION MON AFTN AS THE SFC RDG SHIFTS                  
E-SE OF THE CWA. DO NOT SEE ANY CLOUDS MON MRNG...THEN INCRSG MID               
LVL CLOUDINESS LT MON AFTN AND EVNG AS LOW-MID LVL WAA INCRS OVER               
THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC/850 MB RDG.                                 
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-           
     SHELBY.                                                                    
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN-MONROE-              
     PIKE-RALLS.                                                                
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.           
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR PIKE IL.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
913 PM MST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...                                          
MAIN SHORTWAVE WITH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT SIGNATURE ALOFT SLIDING                  
THRU YELLOWSTONE PARK. COLDEST TOPS AND STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO               
BE ANCHORED TO OUR WEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...BUT NONETHELESS              
A LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS OF 9              
PM. HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD BE                
LIGHTEST ALONG OUR FOOTHILLS AS SOME DOWNSLOPING IS CURRENTLY                   
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. RUC/BLX VAD WINDS CONFIRM WHAT IS                      
SUGGESTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SPOTTER CALLS INDICATE A LIGHT                
SNOW WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW SINCE LATE AFTN...EXCEPT IN FAR                 
WEST WHERE AMTS SINCE NOON ARE A BIT MORE. SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN                
RUNNING NEAR 10 TO 1 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A                 
FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER FROM NEAR THE SFC TO 600MB...SO SNOW                
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE AT A SIMILAR RATE UNTIL THE AIRMASS               
BECOMES A BIT COLDER. OVERALL FORECAST OF 2-3 INCHES DURING THE                 
NIGHTTIME PERIOD LOOKS GOOD. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN OUR SOUTH              
CENTRAL PARTS WHERE SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE MORE               
SHALLOW. AS FOR ANY CHANGES...HAVE RAISED POPS THRU THE NIGHT IN                
OUR WEST HALF AS DIFFLUENT SIGNATURE DRIFTS EASTWARD...THOUGH TOPS              
HAVE BEGUN TO WARM OF LATE...AND OVERNIGHT ACCUMS SHOULD NOT BE                 
MUCH ESP AS WE LOSE THE DENDRITIC LAYER. HEAVIEST PCPN WILL SHIFT               
EAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS TROF SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD. QG FORCING                 
AND SHARPLY CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF                
TOMORROW EAST OF BILLINGS...AND IN THIS AREA HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND               
THE ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW. SNOW SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN AN INCH              
OR TWO ON TUESDAY...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW WITH                     
LINKED BUT MODEST 10-20KT NW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...WITH WIND                   
CHILLS IN THE 20-30 BELOW RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON TUESDAY.                  
THINGS WILL WIND DOWN FOR GOOD BY TOMORROW EVENING IN THE EAST.                 
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...                           
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WITH                   
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE                  
20S. SURFACE WAVE PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA INTO                
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH THE 700MB LOW PROGGED TO FOLLOW A                    
SIMILAR PATH WHICH BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER SNOWFALL EVENT FOR                  
THURSDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS.                   
HOWEVER...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS BEING PERMANENTLY MODIFIED BY THIS              
SYSTEM AS IT IS FOLLOWED BY PATTERN CHANGE AS A STRONGER JET                    
STREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS GOING TO BRING DOWNSLOPING TO THE                  
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND MONTANA. THE TRACK OF THE CHRISTMAS DAY                    
SYSTEM IS NOT REAL CERTAIN WITH THE NAM INDICATING A SLOWER AND                 
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SO WHERE THE BEST SPOT FOR SNOW               
IS STILL A TOUGH CALL. TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR                
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER OPPORTUNITIES BUT THE CANADIAN DOWNSLOPING               
LIMITS ANY RESURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY SEES              
A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST SHIFT INTO MONTANA WITH                     
PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPING ARRIVING FOR A MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURE                   
REGIME. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY OR               
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE PATTERN EVOLVES. WILL LIKELY SEE               
DRY WEATHER FOR THE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND               
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE EROSION OF              
THE DENSE ICY SNOWPACK WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN WARMING INITIALLY. BORSUM            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS...IN WIDESPREAD              
SNOWFALL...CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST                  
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. GILSTAD                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 904/008 002/024 013/028 007/020 007/023 017/035 021/035                     
    +4/S    10/B    03/S    42/S    11/B    10/B    01/B                        
LVM 903/013 006/026 017/026 009/019 008/024 020/033 024/035                     
    +3/S    10/N    23/S    43/S    22/S    20/N    01/B                        
HDN 904/010 906/024 007/029 003/024 003/025 013/033 015/037                     
    +4/S    10/U    02/S    42/S    11/B    10/B    01/B                        
MLS 907/004 910/020 002/024 001/015 002/019 010/028 014/030                     
    +8/S    20/U    01/B    42/S    11/B    10/B    01/B                        
4BQ 905/008 905/024 004/030 004/022 004/023 012/030 017/037                     
    +8/S    20/U    01/B    42/S    11/B    10/B    00/B                        
BHK 907/001 910/016 003/021 001/015 001/020 010/027 009/035                     
    +8/S    20/U    01/B    32/S    11/B    11/B    01/B                        
SHR 901/008 906/027 006/032 004/020 003/024 013/032 014/036                     
    +4/S    20/U    02/S    42/S    11/B    10/B    01/B                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR               
      ZONES 28-29-34-35-40>42-56-63>66.                                         
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR               
      ZONES 30>33-36-37.                                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR                  
      ZONE 67.                                                                  
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
323 PM CST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                                         
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH LARGE TROF OVER THE                     
WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF                
MAKE THE FORECAST QUITE CHALLENGING AND RULING OUT ANY PCPN                     
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH IS TOUGH TO DO.                   
FIRST OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS                 
NERN KS/SWRN NEB PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SFC...HIGH              
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION                   
WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO. STRONG WARM              
AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAS PRODUCED SNOW SHOWERS AT                
SOME OBS ACROSS NRN KS/CENTRAL NEB WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN                 
BRIEFLY REDUCED TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. AS THIS AREA CONTINUES TO                 
MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON....EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW                    
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS               
ISENTROPIC OMEGA MAXIMUM AT THE 290K SFC PASSES QUICKLY THRU THE                
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH SUCH FAST MOVEMENT              
AND A DRY AIRMASS TO OVERCOME FROM THE RETREATING HIGH...AM NOT                 
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING FOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST          
AREAS. NEAR AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/4 OF THE               
FORECAST AREA AS BEST LIFT DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL BETTER SATURATION.               
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AT US FROM THE SOUTHWEST              
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO SERN KS ON TUESDAY. A COLD                  
FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                   
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN ON                 
TUESDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MIX OF PATCHY              
FREEZING DRIZZLE THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO ICE CRYSTALS ENTERING                
INTO THE CLOUD LAYER SO LATER FORECASTS WL BE MONITORING FOR                    
MENTION OF THIS.                                                                
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES TO BE LATE TUESDAY                   
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE              
BASE OF MID LEVEL TROF AND STRONG LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION                   
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE                
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURRING AROUND 24/06Z WITH A LARGE MID LEVEL                   
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION FROM AROUND 700-400MB. HIGHEST                      
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH 3-5                
INCHES POSSIBLE AND 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF I-80.                                   
THE NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AT MOVING STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE                 
FORECAST AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND DEVELOP QPF IN STRONG WAA                   
REGIME. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN OUR EAST.                             
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                     
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO                 
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. MOST NOTABLY...THE GFS DEPICTION OF A SLOWER/STRONGER                 
SYSTEM FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE MORE                  
CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION OF A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE             
TROUGH. THAT SAID...HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN OUR LONG TERM              
FORECAST TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.                                           
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE FOUR             
CORNERS REGION FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WILL SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS              
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS FROM MID WEEK                   
ON...THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PULL SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE NORTH             
INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER TIMING/TRACK OF EJECTING SURFACE LOW/FRONT             
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND AXIS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ARE                
STILL IN QUESTION. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION FRIDAY            
WILL FALL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF              
EASTERN NEBRASKA. TREND THIS COLD SEASON HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO             
EJECT THESE SYSTEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...SO COULD SEE SOME                    
WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WITH LATER RUNS.              
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SMALL POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY              
NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROGS SUGGEST A             
WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN               
THE MOST LIKELY TYPE IN THE SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY COULD ALSO               
GET WELL ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HAVE NUDGED FRIDAY HIGHS             
IN TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.                        
SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT SHOULD END EARLY SATURDAY...BUT              
COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. SO WILL LEAVE THE               
BULK OF SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.                                                   
UPPER FLOW GOES GENERALLY ZONAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO                
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL                
TEMPERATURES WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A MINIMUM.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK THROUGH 23/18Z.                                    
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND WILL CONTINUE              
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS LOW PRES OVR WY/CO MOVES INTO WRN SD AND WRN             
NEB BY 12Z.  SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH THICKENING CLOUDS.                   
INCREASED SOUTH WINDS TO 15 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND HELD THEM              
UP THRU TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST              
ACRS THE TAF SITES.  THE UVV IN COMBINATION WITH THE WAA WITH THE               
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME                   
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. MAY PUT SOME LLWS IN DUE TO THE                         
WIND SPEED/DIR DIFFERENCE. SFC REPORTS SHOW LIGHT SNOW AT HILL CITY             
KS AND THIS AREA SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST.  IN ADDITION...MAY SEE SOME             
MVFR CIGS WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.  NAM/RUC            
PICK UP ON THE LOW LEVEL RH WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT...SO DID PUT IN              
SOME MVFR CIGS. AS THE SFC FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...SFC WINDS WILL            
DECREASE AFTER 15Z.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS/DERGAN/ZAPOTOCNY                                                        
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
934 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WINTER BEGAN THIS MORNING AT 504 AM MST...AND MOTHER NATURE KNOWS               
IT. QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS ARCTIC             
AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUD                
COVER WILL HAMPER ANY HEATING THIS FIRST DAY OF WINTER...AND RUC13              
GUIDANCE SHOWS LEE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF                
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. REMAINING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.             
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...308 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2008...                                
QUIET RIGHT NOW AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE VCNTY OF THE               
SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO BETWEEN KLVS AND KCQC AND SOUTHWARD TO THE                 
LOWER PECOS VALLEY. THIS FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE FITFULLY A LITTLE                 
WAYS FARTHER S AND W TODAY...THEN RATHER WEAKLY AND SHALLOWLY MAY               
EASE THROUGH THE LOWER PASSES/CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN                  
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. IT SHOULD                  
BEGIN TO WASH OUT MON AS THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF AT LEAST 3                  
SEPARATE STORM SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT AMTS OF                     
SNOW AND RAIN TO NW AND N CENTRAL NM. WITH THE CLOUD MASS ACROSS                
AT LEAST THE N HALF OF THE STATE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE               
REMNANT ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY NOT COMPLETELY GET SCOURED OUT ACROSS                
THE CENTRAL...N CENTRAL SECTIONS AND ON EASTWARD. SO LOWERED A                  
LITTLE SOME OF THE MON MAX TEMPS THESE AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND                    
ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES 1...2...4 AND 8 FOR THE 18Z                 
MON TO 00Z WED PERIOD WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DUMP OF SNOW LIKELY                
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY NW AND N CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN.               
IN ZONE 1 LATE MORNING AND AFTN TEMPS MON AND POSSIBLY TUE MAY BE               
TOO WARM TO ALLOW FOR A LOT OF SNOW ACCUM...ESPECIALLY ON                       
PAVEMENT...SO THIS IS THE WEAKEST LINK FOR NOW AMONG THE ZONES                  
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH. ZONE 3 LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE TOO WARM                    
OVERALL...SO NOT INCLUDED IN WATCH SO FAR...THOUGH MON NIGHT INTO               
EARLY TUE IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC. ZONES 5...10...11 AND 14 WILL                
BE ZONES PERHAPS TO CONSIDER LATER AS START TIME OF EVENT FOR THEM              
LIKELY NOT TIL LATER MON NIGHT OR EVEN TUE AM. AMOUNTS THERE WILL               
ALSO BE LESS THAN CURRENT WATCH ZONES AND FOR MAINLY THESE TWO                  
REASONS LEFT THEM OUT OF WATCH FOR NOW. STORM TWO WITH GOOD                     
COVERAGE BUT LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE LATER WED AND EARLY THU PERIOD             
WITH THIRD ONE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATER THU AND FRI. GET YOUR                
SHOVELS READY.                                                                  
43                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS STATEWIDE TODAY...WITH INCREASING                     
CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AS STORM SYSTEM OVER             
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES TO NORTHERN NEVADA. CIGS STEADILY                   
FALLING TO OVC050 NEAR FMN BY 18Z SUNDAY AND TO THE RIO GRANDE BY               
22Z SUNDAY WITH MT TOP OBSCURATION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.             
STORM SYSTEM MOVING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 12Z EARLY MONDAY                   
MORNING WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WITH GUSTS             
TO 40 KTS NEAR TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DEVELOPING BY EARLY                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. SHY                                 
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT              
COUPLE OF DAYS AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS RAPIDLY            
TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER                  
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER              
NEW MEXICO AS DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE STATE WILL                
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING LATE                
MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL NORTH AND WEST...AND HEAVIEST                  
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN RIO ARRIBA COUNTY. TROUGH AXIS                
SWEEPS INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES TO            
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO ESTABLISH WEST FLOW AND CONTINUING SNOW. NEXT                
TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL CYCLE INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY FOR             
CONTINUED RAIN AND SNOW...AND NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE PARADE WILL ROLL            
IN LATE THURSDAY FOR MORE RAIN AND SNOW. NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL              
AMPLIFY AND DIG THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW               
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD                
ACROSS THE STATE LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME SHORT LIVED CLEARING            
ON SATURDAY AS AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN                        
PLAINS...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH ARRIVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TO            
CLOUD UP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE IN THE             
FLOW...EXPECTING NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK               
WEEK AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.                            
SHY                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...                                         
FARMINGTON......................  38  25  41  30 /   5  10  40  50              
GALLUP..........................  39  21  42  28 /   0   5  30  60              
GRANTS..........................  39  20  45  27 /   0   5  20  40              
GLENWOOD........................  58  25  55  32 /   0   0   0  10              
CHAMA...........................  31   9  34  17 /   5  20  60  80              
LOS ALAMOS......................  32  17  40  24 /   0   5  20  50              
RED RIVER.......................  29   7  30  18 /   5  10  20  70              
TAOS............................  34  11  38  22 /   5   5  20  60              
SANTA FE........................  32  18  42  27 /   0   5  10  50              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  34  19  41  28 /   0   5  10  50              
ESPANOLA........................  35  17  44  23 /   0   5  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  41  26  46  33 /   0   5   5  30              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  21  48  29 /   0   5   5  20              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  22  45  28 /   0   5   5  30              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  24  47  30 /   0   5   5  30              
SOCORRO.........................  47  21  52  29 /   0   5   0   5              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  43  18  41  26 /   0   5  10  40              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  39  16  44  25 /   0   5   0  20              
CARRIZOZO.......................  50  21  46  30 /   0   0   5   5              
RUIDOSO.........................  42  19  47  29 /   0   0   5   5              
RATON...........................  31  12  40  24 /   0   5   5  20              
LAS VEGAS.......................  30  15  42  28 /   0   5   5  30              
ROY.............................  27  17  39  27 /   0   5   5  10              
CLAYTON.........................  29  13  39  28 /   0   5   5   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  32  19  47  33 /   0   5   5  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  32  19  44  34 /   0   5   5   5              
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  18  47  30 /   0   5   5   5              
CLOVIS..........................  32  18  43  33 /   0   5   5   5              
PORTALES........................  33  18  45  33 /   0   5   5   5              
ROSWELL.........................  38  21  49  34 /   0   5   5   5              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-002-004-008.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
349 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WINTER OFFICIALLY BEGAN YESTERDAY AMIDST BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS             
PARTS OF THE REGION...AND THE TREND WILL ONLY MARGINALLY IMPROVE FOR            
TODAY. IMPRESSIVE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE FOUND WELL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND            
WATERTOWN WHERE SNOWFALL COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER FOOT. ELSEWHERE...            
SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE BLOWING SNOW WITH              
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING MORE TRANQUIL             
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXED                     
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
MESOSCALE UPDATE...THE KBUF VWP IS SHOWING LITTLE VARIABILITY                   
WITH ONLY A HINT OF OF VEERING WINDS AT AROUND 5000 FT WHILE THE                
LOWER PROFILE IS PEGGED AT AROUND 240 DEGREES. VELOCITY IMAGERY                 
CLEARLY SHOWS A TREND TO THE NORTHWEST OVER LAKE ONTARIO...SO THE               
END IS ALMOST IN SIGHT...NOT THAT YOU CAN SEE MUCH WITH A 1/4 MI                
VISIBILITY SINCE ABOUT ABOUT NOON.  EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL              
WIN OUT AND THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE              
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OCCURS...WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 HOURS                   
AWAY...THE SOUTHTOWNS WILL STILL GET POUNDED BY CONTINUING LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW.                                                                    
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE LATEST RADAR DATA FROM KBUF SHOWS A                  
SUBTLE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE MAIN BAND...SO SOME                    
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS              
SO MUCH BLOWING SNOW IT WILL CONTINUE BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN A                 
SNOW SHOWER FROM BLOWING SNOW.                                                  
ONE OTHER NEAT ITEM TO NOTE AT THIS TIME...THE VELOCITY IMAGERY                 
ALSO SHOWS A NEAT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE                   
PORTION OF THE MAIN LAKE ERIE BAND. THIS CAN BE SEEN AS A                       
DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN WEST SENECA AND ELMA AT 03Z.                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RUC ANALYSES SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW              
IN THE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST...WHILE THE UPPER               
LEVEL COLD CORE HAS PUSHED EAST...AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE                     
ADIRONDACKS. THE LAKE ERIE BAND ACTUALLY EXTENDS ACROSS MONROE                  
COUNTY...CURRENTLY RIGHT OVER KROC...AND IS FEEDING THE LAKE                    
ONTARIO BANDS. ACTUALLY...MULTIPLE BANDS CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE                  
ONTARIO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH               
MOST OF JEFFERSON AND NEARLY ALL OF LEWIS COUNTY. THESE TOO WILL                
CONSOLIDATE LATER TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE               
MORNING HOURS.                                                                  
OUTSIDE OF THE BANDS...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH               
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING WIND                   
CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW -10F WHILE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE BAND ARE                
ABOUT 5F WARMER. WITH ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN PLACE...THERE NO               
NEED TO COMPLICATE MATTERS BY ADDING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES...BUT                
NO DOUBT IT WILL BE A COLD AND UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING.                           
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE HEAVILY                 
WORDED SPS PRODUCTS /SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/.                               
AFTERNOON AFD INTACT BELOW...                                                   
WOW. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THIS. ONCE AGAIN WE                 
HAVE SOME PRETTY BIG TIME CONSTRAINTS SO THIS WILL BE BRIEF.                    
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY THE POPS WILL BE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS             
THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO                  
EASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH              
ACROSS THE BOARD...PRECIP AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY.                    
FIRST AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE            
AND ONTARIO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH             
4 AM FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES BUT WE HAVE HAD TO ADD              
NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT BECAUSE THE STEERING              
WINDS BACKED ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS UP THERE AS WELL. WE STILL                
EXPECT A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT              
AS STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO VEER. WYOMING AND LIVINGSTON COUNTY                  
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM. FOR SOUTHERN                         
ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES THE WARNING               
WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. LAKE INDUCED CAPES AND                      
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE IMPRESSIVE RIGHT THROUGH THEN.                           
OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE TRANSITIONED INTO            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS. THEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 7 AM                 
MONDAY FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES AND 7 PM FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.             
WE HAVE ALSO ADDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN CAYUGA AND            
WAYNE COUNTIES FROM 7 AM THROUGH 7 PM. UNTIL THEN WE WILL KEEP                  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UP FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES AND ALSO FOR                
MONROE AND ONTARIO COUNTIES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW.                  
THE MOST IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THIS FORECAST REMAINS THE WINDS.                  
BLOWING AND DRIFTING CAUSING NEAR BLIZZARD CRITERIA RIGHT THROUGH               
THE NIGHT IN THE WARNING AREAS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ELSEWHERE                 
WHERE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN WILL BE BLOWN AND DRIFTED                    
EXTENSIVELY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                      
WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION...            
IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                
CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE A ROUND OF MIXED ICE AND SNOW                  
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY...THEN POTENTIALLY                    
DAMAGING WINDS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. LETS GET TO THE DETAILS...                    
TUESDAY WILL START OFF WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN               
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE              
OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE CAP WILL BE LOWERING AND THE            
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION WILL ERODE THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA.                
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS TO START THE              
DAY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST WHILE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM              
WILL DROP OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. THE                  
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A STRENGTHENING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH                
WILL WARM THE MID LEVELS AND INCREASE THE GENERAL MOISTURE IN THE               
BOUNDARY LAYER. IN OTHER WORDS...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.                
THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN             
COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY.                                                       
A WELL DEVELOPED STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT AHEAD            
OF IT PRODUCING A COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR OUR REGION. THERMAL                  
PROFILES ACROS OUR REGION INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIXED BAG OF             
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. AREAS EAST OF LK ONTARIO WILL                 
LIKELY JUST SEE SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE             
FROM A COATING NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE TO A COUPLE INCHES NEAR               
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.                                                       
THE MAIN CONCERN THOUGH WILL BE THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF ANY                  
FREEZING RAIN...WHICH COULD PRODUCE VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING                      
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN                 
THREAT FOR ANY PROBLEMS WILL COME OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE             
WRN SRN TIER...THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WHERE            
THE 03Z SREF PLUMES ARE SUGGESTING MORE THAN AN A TENTH OF AN INCH              
OF FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY `FLAGS`            
FOR THIS EVENT...BUT AN ADVISORY WOULD BE REQUIRED IF THE SCENARIO              
DOES NOT CHANGE. STAY TUNED.                                                    
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE `CUTTER` TYPE STORM WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE              
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO ABOUT DTW THEN TO YYZ WHILE DEEPENING TO              
ABOUT 995 MB. THIS TRACK IS NEARLY IDENTICAL AS DEPICTED BY THE                 
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...SO STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE              
OVER OUR REGION WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING AROUND +8C. A WIDE OPEN GULF            
WILL ALSO ENABLE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED TO OUR REGION.            
IN FACT...THE GEFS IS SUGGESTING THAT PWATS WILL BE SOME 2 STD ABOVE            
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE IDEAL OF                   
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NEAR 100 POPS THAT WE HAVE IN THE PACKAGE.                 
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN CHRISTMAS EVE AS IT WILL               
TRACK FROM NEAR TORONTO TO ABOUT MONTREAL THEN TO THE MOUTH OF THE              
ST LAWRENCE RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THIS IS THE CLASSIC TRACK FOR HIGH               
WIND EVENTS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELLED               
DOWN THE FULL FETCH OF LAKE ERIE. THE FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED UPPER                 
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME `PINCHED` AS WELL...WITH COLD ADVECTION                  
HELPING TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 40-60 KNOT H85 WINDS. WE WOULD                
NORMALLY SEE VERY IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS OUR              
REGION DURING THESE EVENTS....BUT GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE UPSTREAM            
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS COMPONENT SHOULD NOT BE A BIG PLAYER.               
REGARDLESS...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS EVENT FOR ADVISORIES            
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FROM THE                
LAKE ERIE SHORE AND THE IAG FRONTIER...ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO                  
BORDERING COUNTIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER REASON TO STAY                 
TUNED!                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN             
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WILL STILL LEAVE A TOKEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
IN FOR THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER                 
LASTING INTO MOST OF FRIDAY.                                                    
THEN...ANOTHER STORM WILL BE ON TAP.  THIS ONE MIGHT BE THE                     
WARMEST OF ALL THE SEEMINGLY COUNTLESS SYNOPTIC STORMS THAT WILL                
HAVE AFFECTED THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF WEEK.  FOR THE 12Z GEFS             
ENSEMBLE...PWATS EXCEED 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL ON                    
SATURDAY WHICH IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  BUT BUT BUT...THERE ARE               
SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DURING THE                 
WEEKEND...AND THE FSU CONFIDENCE CHART SHOWS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE            
ABILITY TO PREDICT WHAT IS IN STORE.  THEREFORE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE             
IN THE FORECAST OUTCOME FOR THE WEEKEND...THE PREDICTABILITY IS JUST            
TOO LOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL BE THE                   
DECIDING FACTOR IN TAFS AS SITES WITHIN LAKE EFFECT WILL BE AT OR               
BELOW IFR AND AREAS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MVFR TO VFR. KBUF            
AND KART WILL REMAIN AT LOW IFR TO VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE              
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE WITH 1/4SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY            
SNOW AND VSBY RESTRICTED ALSO BY BLOWING SNOW. KIAG AND KROC WILL BE            
INFLUENCED BY THE EDGES OF LAKE EFFECT AND WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH             
PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH 08Z...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THEREAFTER. KROC          
MAY SEE SOME LAKE SNOWS FROM LAKE ONTARIO AFTER 10Z...THEN RETURN TO            
MVFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MAINLY FOR LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS.              
KJHW WILL HAVE NIL TAF AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OBSERVATIONS                  
AVAILABLE SINCE 1935Z ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                      
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.                                                         
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.                                                           
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW.                                                  
THURSDAY...VFR.                                                                 
FRIDAY...VFR.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR LAKE ERIE...BUT GALES WILL BE              
RAISED FOR THE BULK OF TODAY. GALES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO BE                
IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AS STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE                   
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A VERY DEEP                 
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF MAINE.                                            
THE PASSING OF A RIDGE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT             
TO WEAKEN AND FOR WINDS TO FINALLY DROP BELOW GALE WARNING                      
CRITERIA.                                                                       
HIGH WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                   
     NYZ006-019>021-085.                                                        
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     NYZ007-008-012-013.                                                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ004-            
     005.                                                                       
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST                
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ004-005.                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                    
     NYZ001>003-010-011-014.                                                    
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-041.             
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ020.                  
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                         
         LOZ042>045-062>065.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RSH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...SAGE/ZAFF                                                           
SHORT TERM...RSH/ZAFF                                                           
LONG TERM...ZAFF                                                                
AVIATION...WCH                                                                  
MARINE...RSH/SAGE/ZAFF                                                          
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1157 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND STRONG WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE                
WEATHER STORY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR              
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.  A             
BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL              
MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR A MIXED BAG                
WINTRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT ALL CHANGES OVER TO RAIN ON              
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
MESOSCALE UPDATE...THE KBUF VWP IS SHOWING LITTLE VARIABILITY                   
WITH ONLY A HINT OF OF VEERING WINDS AT AROUND 5000 FT WHILE THE                
LOWER PROFILE IS PEGGED AT AROUND 240 DEGREES. VELOCITY IMAGERY                 
CLEARLY SHOWS A TREND TO THE NORTHWEST OVER LAKE ONTARIO...SO THE               
END IS ALMOST IN SIGHT...NOT THAT YOU CAN SEE MUCH WITH A 1/4 MI                
VISIBILITY SINCE ABOUT ABOUT NOON.  EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL              
WIN OUT AND THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE              
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OCCURS...WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 HOURS                   
AWAY...THE SOUTHTOWNS WILL STILL GET POUNDED BY CONTINUING LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW.                                                                    
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE LATEST RADAR DATA FROM KBUF SHOWS A                  
SUBTLE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE MAIN BAND...SO SOME                    
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS              
SO MUCH BLOWING SNOW IT WILL CONTINUE BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN A                 
SNOW SHOWER FROM BLOWING SNOW.                                                  
ONE OTHER NEAT ITEM TO NOTE AT THIS TIME...THE VELOCITY IMAGERY                 
ALSO SHOWS A NEAT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE                   
PORTION OF THE MAIN LAKE ERIE BAND. THIS CAN BE SEEN AS A                       
DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN WEST SENECA AND ELMA AT 03Z.                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RUC ANALYSES SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW              
IN THE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST...WHILE THE UPPER               
LEVEL COLD CORE HAS PUSHED EAST...AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE                     
ADIRONDACKS. THE LAKE ERIE BAND ACTUALLY EXTENDS ACROSS MONROE                  
COUNTY...CURRENTLY RIGHT OVER KROC...AND IS FEEDING THE LAKE                    
ONTARIO BANDS. ACTUALLY...MULTIPLE BANDS CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE                  
ONTARIO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH               
MOST OF JEFFERSON AND NEARLY ALL OF LEWIS COUNTY. THESE TOO WILL                
CONSOLIDATE LATER TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE               
MORNING HOURS.                                                                  
OUTSIDE OF THE BANDS...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH               
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING WIND                   
CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW -10F WHILE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE BAND ARE                
ABOUT 5F WARMER. WITH ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN PLACE...THERE NO               
NEED TO COMPLICATE MATTERS BY ADDING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES...BUT                
NO DOUBT IT WILL BE A COLD AND UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING.                           
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE HEAVILY                 
WORDED SPS PRODUCTS /SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/.                               
AFTERNOON AFD INTACT BELOW...                                                   
WOW. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THIS. ONCE AGAIN WE                 
HAVE SOME PRETTY BIG TIME CONSTRAINTS SO THIS WILL BE BRIEF.                    
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY THE POPS WILL BE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS             
THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO                  
EASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH              
ACROSS THE BOARD...PRECIP AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY.                    
FIRST AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE            
AND ONTARIO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH             
4 AM FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES BUT WE HAVE HAD TO ADD              
NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT BECAUSE THE STEERING              
WINDS BACKED ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS UP THERE AS WELL. WE STILL                
EXPECT A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT              
AS STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO VEER. WYOMING AND LIVINGSTON COUNTY                  
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM. FOR SOUTHERN                         
ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES THE WARNING               
WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. LAKE INDUCED CAPES AND                      
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE IMPRESSIVE RIGHT THROUGH THEN.                           
OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE TRANSITIONED INTO            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS. THEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 7 AM                 
MONDAY FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES AND 7 PM FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.             
WE HAVE ALSO ADDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN CAYUGA AND            
WAYNE COUNTIES FROM 7 AM THROUGH 7 PM. UNTIL THEN WE WILL KEEP                  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UP FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES AND ALSO FOR                
MONROE AND ONTARIO COUNTIES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW.                  
THE MOST IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THIS FORECAST REMAINS THE WINDS.                  
BLOWING AND DRIFTING CAUSING NEAR BLIZZARD CRITERIA RIGHT THROUGH               
THE NIGHT IN THE WARNING AREAS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ELSEWHERE                 
WHERE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN WILL BE BLOWN AND DRIFTED                    
EXTENSIVELY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                           
EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO WEAKEN DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS A                 
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL                   
CONTINUES TO LOWER.  EXISTING BANDS WILL BE HEADING TO THE NORTH                
DURING THE NIGHT BUT WILL SLOWLY FALL APART.                                    
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR THE MOST                      
PART...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP SKIES OVERCAST WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE                 
ALOFT MOVING IN DURING THE DAY.  SREF INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF              
PRECIPITATION BY NIGHTFALL...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW IN FOR               
THE AFTERNOON WEST OF ROCHESTER.                                                
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.               
EXPECT IT TO DROP ACROSS THE SIERRAS ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE               
PLAIN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS               
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH HEADING TOWARD WESTERN NY.  THERE IS OVERALL              
GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE EVENT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE             
IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO MODEL VARIATIONS.                                  
AT THIS TIME...EXPECT A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN TUESDAY               
NIGHT OVER THE BELOW FREEZING SURFACE...BRINGING IN THE POSSIBILITY             
OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET.  THE EXPANSIVE SNOW PACK MAKES THIS              
POSSIBILITY MORE LIKELY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN                   
MODEL OUTPUT.  MODEL PROFILES VARY OF COURSE...BUT WILL MAKE SOME               
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP ALL OF THE EASTERN                
LAKE ONTARIO REGION UNDER SNOW AS WELL AS A STRIP ALONG THE LAKE                
ONTARIO SHORELINE.  SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL INTRODUCE A MIXED SNOW              
AND SLEET SCENARIO...FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN                  
TIER.  THIS IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE SOUNDING PROFILES OF THE NAM.             
THIS SHOULD ALL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY              
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY              
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL                   
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATION AND INTENSITY BY WEDNESDAY              
AFTERNOON...WITH A 996MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND DEEPENING                
WITH TIME.  THE NAM AND THE SREF ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE YET.  WILL               
LEAN TOWARD THE DEEPENING LOW SCENARIO...WHICH MAY MAKE FOR A WIND              
EVENT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE.  BUT FOR NOW...WILL NOT PUT TOO MUCH                   
EMPHASIS ON THIS AS WE STILL NEED TO GET THROUGH THE ONGOING LAKE               
EFFECT AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ISSUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.               
OTHERWISE...CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD FEATURE RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS                  
MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE NOT            
EXPECTED HOWEVER.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN             
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WILL STILL LEAVE A TOKEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
IN FOR THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER                 
LASTING INTO MOST OF FRIDAY.                                                    
THEN...ANOTHER STORM WILL BE ON TAP.  THIS ONE MIGHT BE THE                     
WARMEST OF ALL THE SEEMINGLY COUNTLESS SYNOPTIC STORMS THAT WILL                
HAVE AFFECTED THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF WEEK.  FOR THE 12Z GEFS             
ENSEMBLE...PWATS EXCEED 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL ON                    
SATURDAY WHICH IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  BUT BUT BUT...THERE ARE               
SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DURING THE                 
WEEKEND...AND THE FSU CONFIDENCE CHART SHOWS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE            
ABILITY TO PREDICT WHAT IS IN STORE.  THEREFORE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE             
IN THE FORECAST OUTCOME FOR THE WEEKEND...THE PREDICTABILITY IS JUST            
TOO LOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL BE THE                   
DECIDING FACTOR IN TAFS AS SITES WITHIN LAKE EFFECT WILL BE AT OR               
BELOW IFR AND AREAS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MVFR TO VFR. KBUF            
AND KART WILL REMAIN AT LOW IFR TO VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE              
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE WITH 1/4SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY            
SNOW AND VSBY RESTRICTED ALSO BY BLOWING SNOW. KIAG AND KROC WILL BE            
INFLUENCED BY THE EDGES OF LAKE EFFECT AND WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH             
PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH 08Z...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THEREAFTER. KROC          
MAY SEE SOME LAKE SNOWS FROM LAKE ONTARIO AFTER 10Z...THEN RETURN TO            
MVFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MAINLY FOR LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS.              
KJHW WILL HAVE NIL TAF AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OBSERVATIONS                  
AVAILABLE SINCE 1935Z ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                      
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.                                                         
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.                                                           
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW.                                                  
THURSDAY...VFR.                                                                 
FRIDAY...VFR.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
STORM WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE ERIE...WITH GALES FOR LAKE                
ONTARIO AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GEORGIAN BAY MOVES             
EAST TONIGHT.  THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST            
HALF OF TONIGHT...THEN THEY WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND                
MONDAY.                                                                         
THE PASSING OF A RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW THE SFC PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND FOR WINDS TO FINALLY DROP BELOW GALE WARNING             
CRITERIA.                                                                       
HIGH WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ006-                 
     019>021-085.                                                               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ007-008-             
     012-013.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ004-005.              
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR                  
     NYZ004-005.                                                                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ001>003-              
     014.                                                                       
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ010-011.             
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.                    
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ020.                         
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042>045-                     
         062>065.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ZAFF                                                                 
NEAR TERM...SAGE/ZAFF                                                           
SHORT TERM...ZAFF                                                               
LONG TERM...ZAFF                                                                
AVIATION...WCH                                                                  
MARINE...SAGE/ZAFF                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1229 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES               
THIS MORNING, WHILE A SECOND AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE                  
NORTHEAST COAST BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL LIGHT TO                   
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL                  
AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN                     
CATSKILLS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT,              
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
FIRST SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING, WITH TROF ACROSS               
THE AREA EXTENDING TO SECOND SFC LOW OFF NEW JERSEY COAST...WHICH IS            
DEEPENING. STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS ERN HALF OF THE FA, WHILE               
GOOD BAND OF SNOW HANGS ON ACROSS THE EAST AS THE COASTAL LOW                   
TAKES OVER TODAY. RUC DATA SHOWS THIS PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST THRU               
ABOUT 20Z THIS AFTN BEFORE LIFTING OUT. EVEN THIS LOOKS A BIT                   
SLOW GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL TENDENCY TO BE TOO LATE BRINGING              
PRECIP IN AND OUT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT THE              
CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS, AND TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY IN THE WEST.               
WILL WAIT A BIT LONGER TO END THE ADVISORY IN THE CENTRAL ZONES,                
WHERE THE PRECIP IS WINDING DOWN NOW. SO FAR, RECEIVING SOME                    
REPORTS IN THE NORTHEAST OF 5 TO NEARLY 7 INCHES FROM ONEIDA TO                 
OTSEGO COUNTIES.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
TONIGHT...AS SFC LOW LIFTS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING SFC                
PRES DROPS TO 975 MB RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS WITH CONSIDERABLE                
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH                 
TMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 10                
BELOW ZERO.                                                                     
INITIALLY FLOW NOT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ACROSS FA BUT AFTER                
09Z LAKE EFFECT WILL DROP INTO ONEIDA COUNTY WITH SEVERAL INCHES                
OF SNOW LIKELY BY SUNRISE.                                                      
MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER MONDAY MORNING WITH                   
UNSTABLE LAYER SHOWING 300 DEGREE VECTOR. THROUGH MIDDAY UNSTABLE               
LAYER VERY DEEP WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY. DURING THE AFTERNOON                  
INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE. FOR NOW, 4               
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS ONONDAGA/MADISON AND                  
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE                        
ADVISORIES.                                                                     
OTHERWISE, A FRIGID DAY WITH MAXES ONLY 15-20 DEGREES AND NORTHWEST             
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. SCATTERED SNOW                   
SHOWERS MOST PLACES WITH MINOR ACCUM ACROSS CORTLAND/CHENANGO AND               
OTSEGO COUNTIES NEAR LAKE BAND.                                                 
MONDAY NIGHT...FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AS RIDGING BEGINS AT LOW AND                 
UPPER LEVELS. LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING THEN LIFT               
NORTH TO JUST NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PROBABLY NORTH               
OF THERE BY DAYLIGHT. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH                
ADVISORY ACCUM POSSIBLE.                                                        
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN VERY COLD BUT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING.               
TUESDAY...WITH SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, DAY WILL               
START PARTLY SUNNY WITH INC CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC LOW                
PRES IN THE MID WEST WILL BEING THE CHC FOR SNOW DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON FROM I81 WEST.                                                        
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREA OF LOW PRES WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPR GREAT                
LAKES SOUTH TO MID WEST BY 12Z WED. DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC                
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS FA WITH HIGH CHC POPS ENTIRE CWA. AFTER                 
06Z, T85 ABOVE FREEZING ENTIRE FA BUT FAR NORTH PER NAM/GFS.                    
INCLUDED PRECIP MIXING WITH SLEET ALL AREA BUT FAR NRN CWA.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                
LONG RANGE CONTS TO SHOW A DVLPG SE RDG AND A RETURN TO MILDER AIR              
FOR THE FCST AREA. TREND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z EURO WAS TO KEEP                
THE RDG FLATTER FOR MUCH OF THE PD...SO WHILE WE WILL SEE MUCH                  
MILDER AIR...PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS MILD AS EARLIER RUNS. SO...WILL               
KEEP THE IDEA OF A TEMP RETURN TO SEASONABLE COLD ON XMAS...AND A               
SLOW REBOUND OF TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE PD.                                   
HPC GUID SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE PTRN AND TREND WELL SO I HAVE USED               
THAT GUID FOR THE XTNDD GRIDS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
STEADY SNOW HAS NOW PULLED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AND OUR TAF SITES               
ARE RETURNING TO VFR. XPCT VFR OR MVFR CONDS TO CONT THIS AFTN                  
WITH JUST SOME OCNL LGT SNOW SHWRS...AND SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY                
DUE TO BLWG SNOW. OVRNGT...WINDS WILL INCRS AND BLWG SNOW WILL                  
CONT TO CAUSE LWRD VSBY...AS WILL SCT SNOW SHWRS. ON MON...MORE                 
NWLY FLOW WILL BRING THE HEAVIER LES INTO THE AREA...ESP AT RME                 
AND SYR. FURTHER RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN ALL NY TAFS WITH THE INCRSD               
SNOW SHWRS AND BLWG SNOW.                                                       
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WLY...AND GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS MORE                
THAN 30 KTS. MORE OF THE SAME ON MON...XCPT THAT THE WINDS WILL                 
BECOME MORE NWLY AS THE LOW PULLS OUT.                                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON NIGHT...MVFR/IFR SHSN POSSIBLE AT SYR/RME...WITH MOSTLY VFR                 
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.                                                         
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION          
EVENT.                                                                          
THURSDAY...IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR.                                             
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     PAZ040-048-072.                                                            
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     NYZ018-036-044-045-056-062.                                                
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-             
     037-046-057.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JML/RRM                                                              
NEAR TERM...JML/RRM                                                             
SHORT TERM...DGM                                                                
LONG TERM...MLJ                                                                 
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
923 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE W               
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY            
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH              
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE               
AREA ON FRIDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS               
IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.              
BASED ON LAST SET OF OBSERVATIONS...WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR                
THE OUTER BANKS TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT                  
CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
A COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS SFC                
HIGH PRES NEARS FROM THE W LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS AND GOOD                    
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE ONSET OF WAA A LITTLE HIGHER UP IN THE                 
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN UPR MOISTURE WHICH MAY            
LIMIT COOLING SOME LATE...BUT EITHER WAY STILL LOOKING AT LOWS                  
RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN SHELTERED SPOTS AWAY FROM THE              
COAST TO LOW 30S OBX.                                                           
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD JUST N OF AREA EARLY TUE THEN SLIDE                        
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPR RIDGING MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES             
WILL RISE IN RESPONSE AND TEMPS WILL THEREBY WARM...BUT A COLD START            
WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM SURPASSING THE M-U40S INLAND TO NR 50 COAST.            
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW NIGHTS SHOWING A               
WEAK COASTAL TROF FORMING JUST OFFSHORE TUE THEN DRIFTING W TOWARDS             
THE SRN COASTAL AREAS TUE EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW                   
SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST            
BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ASSOCIATED MSTR/CLOUDS WILL BE                 
QUITE SHALLOW SO HELD OFF ADDING ANY POPS FOR NOW. WINDS VEERING SE             
TO S THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL MEAN A MUCH WARMER CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING            
THAN 24HRS PRIOR WITH LOWS U30S INLAND AND L-M40S COAST.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM (M-U60S COAST/U60S-NR 70                   
INLAND) WITH INCREASING SLY FLOW BTWN OFFSHORE HIGH PRES AND                    
APPROACHING FRONT. KEPT POPS OUT THO AS MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE               
AREA DRY...THO INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.                         
STILL NO BIG IMPROVEMENT TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES SURROUNDING OUR               
CHRISTMAS DAY COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE 22/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS                 
FURTHER S WITH THIS FEATURE THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND               
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT BRINGING THE                    
BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA THU AFTN AND JUST S OF AREA BY 26/00Z...WHILE            
GFS STALLS THE FRONT BETWEEN HATTERAS AND APPROX LENOIR COUNTY THEN             
RETURNS IT N AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE                        
IMPLICATIONS ON BOTH THE TEMP AND POP FORECASTS BUT AT THIS POINT               
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LATE WED NIGHT AND ON                  
CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO AND THRU THE AREA. AM                   
INCLINED TO THINK THE ECMWF/GFS MEAN ARE ON TO SOMETHING SO HAVE                
STARTED TRENDING THE GRIDS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER THU NIGHT INTO             
FRI WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRES N OF AREA EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN                 
PLAYER...THO DID KEEP A SCHC IN THERE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. IT DOES                
APPEAR THAT WE WILL RE ENTER THE WARM SECTOR SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT              
FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED PREFRONTALY SLY WINDS COMBINED WITH A STRONG              
UPR RIDGE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPS                  
RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH L70S PSBL INLAND. KEPT CHC POPS IN FOR            
SUN WITH NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE                
BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS. WINDS WILL              
STAY GUSTY INTO THIS AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.                                                      
AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TUE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE                   
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS                    
DEVELOP AND WILL PROB BE SOME CIGS IN MVFR RANGE. CONT S/SW FLOW                
INTO WED WITH CONT THREAT OF SOME LOWER CIGS. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO              
DROP INTO THE REGION THU WITH SCT SHRA AND LIKELY SOME REDUCED                  
CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. FOR FRI LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE                
TO THE S...STILL COULD SEE SOME LOWER CIGS WITH ENE FLOW.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH STRONG              
SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ALL ZONES. CONTINUING THE GALES IS A TOUGH                   
CALL AS OBS SHOW WINDS JUST UNDER CRITERIA. BASED ON THE LATEST                 
RUN OF THE RUC13 AND RUC40...I WILL LET THE GALE EXPIRE ON THE                  
PAMLICO AT 10 AM...AND KEEP THE GALES GOING NORTH OF OCRACOKE                   
THROUGH 17Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE                    
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE                     
GRADIENT LOOSENS.                                                               
WINDS BECOME SE TUE WITH SPEED LESS THAN 15 KTS. WINDS INCREASE                 
AND BECOME S WED WITH HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND FRONT TO THE                       
NW...LOOKS LIKE SCA FOR MOST COASTAL WTRS WED INTO THU AHEAD OF                 
FRONT. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST FROM THU ON WITH FRONT CROSSING THU AND               
STALL TO THE S FRI. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW SCA LVL THU AS GUSTY SW                
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND DECREASE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.                 
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-135.              
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ156-158.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MW                                                                   
NEAR TERM...CTC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MW                                                                 
LONG TERM...MW                                                                  
AVIATION...RF/HSA                                                               
MARINE...RF/HSA                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
630 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL                 
RESULT IN BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. THE VERY COLD WEATHER               
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND THEN               
OFFSHORE. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO ABOVE               
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...                                                          
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER            
THE MIDWEST...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE OH             
VALLEY. SFC TROUGHING WAS NOTED IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.                 
ALOFT...WV IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LOW                   
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING              
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS.                                            
TODAY:                                                                          
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST/NORTH OVER THE TN/OH                
VALLEYS WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN            
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST              
OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IN              
COMBINATION WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS (ASSOC/W STRONG COLD            
ADVECTION AS COLD/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM              
THE WEST) WILL LEAD TO CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TODAY. AS NICE AS IT WILL              
BE TO HAVE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...IT REALLY WON`T FEEL TOO NICE DUE TO             
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES THIS MORNING ARE              
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1240-1255M...INCREASING TO NO MORE THAN                  
1270-1280M THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES...THESE THICKNESSES            
SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE            
AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS (PARTICULARLY                 
DURING THE MORNING HOURS) WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE. IN             
FACT...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION CURRENTLY UNDERWAY IN THE             
WESTERN PIEDMONT (AND BY SUNRISE ELSEWHERE) IS WELL REFLECTED IN THE            
LATEST INT/GSO OBS...WHICH SHOW 15-20 KT SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS              
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AS OF 04-05Z. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A              
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH 25-35 KT NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW            
THOUSAND FEET THROUGH 12-15Z THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT ROUGHLY 15 KT            
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH              
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY. THE BREEZIEST PORTION OF THE DAY IS             
EXPECTED BETWEEN BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 15-17Z...AFTER THE ONSET OF                
DIURNAL HEATING AND BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN              
AND FLOW IN THE MIXED LAYER DECREASES INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY                
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF MORNING TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID              
20S AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE VERY COLD WIND CHILL                 
VALUES THIS MORNING...IN THE 5-15F RANGE AT TIMES...WITH THE COLDEST            
WIND CHILLS IN THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT. ALTHOUGH THE BREEZIEST                     
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WIND CHILL                
VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 20S SINCE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TOP              
OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 30S.                                                       
TONIGHT:                                                                        
STRONG (1035-1040MB) SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD DIRECTLY             
OVER CENTRAL NC BY 12Z TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF             
SCT/BKN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME IN                 
ASSOC/W THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS FROM THE WEST/SW...SKIES               
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME...AND EXPECT NEAR               
MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CALM WINDS AND A VERY COLD/DRY                 
AIRMASS IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE IS EVEN INDICATING LOWS IN THE UPPER             
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL FORECAST VERY COLD LOWS RANGING FROM              
16-20F ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE TYPICAL               
RURAL AND LOW LYING AREAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLD            
READINGS IN THE 14-16F RANGE...PARTICULARLY IF THERE IS MINIMAL OR              
NO CLOUD COVER IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. -VINCENT                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...                                                          
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY                       
TUE...SETTING UP A FAMILIAR PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND                
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING.              
THIS MEANS THAT INITIALLY CLEAR / MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TUE                     
MORNING/AFT WILL GIVE WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA              
BY ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT EARLY WED MORNING AS EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS                  
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER               
LEVELS. WITH THICKNESSES WARMING THROUGH THE DAY (UP TO 1300-1310M              
OR SO BY 18-21Z TUE AFTERNOON)...HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE                  
WARMER...AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE                
AREA...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NW PIEDMONT. MOS GUIDANCE IS            
SPLIT BY AS MUCH AS 5-8F FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. FOR                  
EXAMPLE...AT FAYETTEVILLE...THE NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH OF 43F AND            
THE MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH OF 51F. DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS WHAT             
THE THICKNESSES SUGGEST SINCE THOSE VALUES AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH               
WHAT YOU WOULD GET FROM A MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT               
SOMEWHAT TRICKY AT THIS TIME...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL                
COOLING CAN OCCUR BEFORE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SIGNIFICANTLY                    
INCREASES. AT THIS TIME A MOS GUIDANCE BLEND SEEMS PRETTY                       
REASONABLE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 34-40F. W/REGARD TO POPS...                 
ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF BETWEEN                  
06-12Z WED MORNING...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION NOT EVEN                    
EXTENDING UP TO THE 0C ISOTHERM ANYWHERE...AND AS A RESULT...WE                 
SHOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO GET ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TUE NIGHT. FCST             
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW PRETTY GOOD WARM ADVECTION IN THE EASTERN HALF OF             
THE AREA 06-12Z WED MORNING...AND THIS WARM ADVECTION COULD BE                  
STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO...PRIMARILY EAST OF             
THE TRIANGLE WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION EXTENDING THROUGH             
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LAYER (LOWEST 5-6 KFT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN VERSUS             
LOWEST 3 KFT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT). SO...AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY WED            
MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR              
DRIZZLE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AS               
FAR WEST AS HWY 1...WITH NO MENTION OF WX IN THE FAR WESTERN                    
PIEDMONT WHERE SATURATION IS PROGGED TO BE THE SHALLOWEST.                      
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
YET ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP ON WED. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED            
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE              
DAY WED...WITH AN ASSOC SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH ILLINOIS INTO                  
MICHIGAN...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z THU. AT            
THE SAME TIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL               
CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE            
HEIGHT FIELD / PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO STRENGTHEN             
QUITE A BIT. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A 40-50 KT                         
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 40 KT             
FLOW AS LOW AS 3 KFT AGL. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA                  
SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER...A                
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE AREA...AND             
THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THE                
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WED AFTERNOON. SINCE THE COLD SFC              
HIGH WILL BE WELL EAST IN THE ATLANTIC...AND NO LONGER IN A POSITION            
TO REINFORCE THE WEDGE AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE WED MORNING...                
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO MODIFY WARMER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH FCST              
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE LOWER             
LEVELS. EXACTLY HOW WARM WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY LOCATIONS CAN               
MIX OUT THE COOL/SATURATED AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AT THIS                 
TIME...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING ONLY THE COASTAL PLAIN                     
LOCATIONS COMPLETELY MIXING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH               
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT REMAINING SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS...AND THE             
TRIANGLE AREA SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW THE                   
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE MOS GUIDANCE IS            
INDICATING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. MOS GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BY AS MUCH             
AS 10-12F IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE SHOWING               
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE MAV GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.             
SO...THERE IS DEFINITELY THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH TEMP BUST ON                  
WED...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT A            
COMPROMISE WORKS BEST...AND WILL SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN THE               
WESTERN PIEDMONT. GIVEN A STRONG LLJ OVER THE AREA DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON...ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO MIX OUT COULD SEE QUITE BREEZY                
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH JUST HOW BREEZY DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE            
MIXING IS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE                 
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY ON WED...            
WITH HARDLY ANY FORCING IN THE LOWER OR UPPER LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL             
NC. THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE                 
MOUNTAINS ON WED.                                                               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT:                                                                
THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WED AFT/EVE IS EXPECTED TO                 
WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT...STALLING SW-NE                 
ACROSS THE STATE BY THU MORNING. GIVEN WELL ABOVE PWAT VALUES IN THE            
1.00-1.50" RANGE...WITH SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE             
BOUNDARY...WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WED             
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE (50%) IN THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT. DECIDED             
AGAINST GOING LIKELY IN THE NW PIEDMONT DUE TO LITTLE IF ANYTHING IN            
THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL HELP...HOWEVER...IF CURRENT MODEL QPF TRENDS             
CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO LIKELY.              
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...VERY MILD LOW TEMPS ARE              
EXPECTED WED NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NW PIEDMONT              
TO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
AS OF 225 AM MONDAY...                                                          
NO WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS YEAR. THE PERIOD COVERING                
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK MILD WITH PARTLY            
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC BUT GENERALLY SMALL CHANCES OF              
SHOWERS... PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.                           
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY... THE STORM SYSTEM NOW BASHING THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST TRACKS UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY AS            
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NC FROM THE NW. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A                   
SLIGHTLY FASTER/WEAKER MID LEVEL WAVE AS WELL AS A WEAKER SURFACE               
HIGH PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT... AND AS A RESULT IT STILL TAKES              
THE FRONT JUST INTO NRN NC BEFORE KICKING IT BACK NORTH AS A WARM               
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG RIDGING OFF THE FL            
COAST AND A RETURN TO ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC. IN                   
CONTRAST... THE ECMWF`S STRONGER HIGH AND SLOWER/STRONGER MID LEVEL             
WAVE SERVE TO PUSH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY LEADING TO A            
DROP IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DELAYED REBOUND UNTIL FRIDAY                
NIGHT. GIVEN THE MEAN PATTERN AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE...             
A LEAN TOWARD THE GFS`S WEAKER/TRANSIENT PARENT HIGH AND FASTER                 
FRONTOLYSIS IS PREFERRED... ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO DROP FAR            
ENOUGH INTO THE CWA TO TRIM HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK ESPECIALLY IN THE            
NORTH. EXPECT HIGHS OF 59-68... CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.                  
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THAT                        
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL APPROACH 300% OF NORMAL WITH IMPROVING                  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THROUGH THE DAY.                                             
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED GFS/ECMWF DIFFERENCES             
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT... WITH THE               
ECMWF SHOWING THE SLOWER/STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD                
INTO NC WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES... AND THE GFS SHOWING STRONG 850            
MB GULF INFLOW AND ABUNDANT WARM ADVECTION AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE                
WATER. AGAIN THE GFS TREND IS FAVORED BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE              
OFFSHORE RIDGING... BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HERE IS LOW. WILL             
HOLD ONTO LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH A MOIST COLUMN BUT WITH A FLAT SWRLY            
MID LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY WEAK UPGLIDE EVIDENT. LOWS 42-52 AND HIGHS              
57-69... LOWEST NW WITH A NOD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK DAMMING              
EVENT IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... AS                  
HINTED AT BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS.                                     
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN OF WESTERN               
U.S. TROUGHING WITH RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST HOLDS ON INTO THE              
WEEKEND. HEIGHTS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH OVER THE NC AS THE LOW                 
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN PERSISTS... AND WILL CONTINUE LOW                  
CHANCE POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE                  
PATTERN APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT                
APPROACHES FROM THE NW... ALTHOUGH THE LATEST CANADIAN SHOWS LESS OF            
A BREAKDOWN. WILL SHOW RISING POPS FOR SUNDAY BUT KEEP IT RATHER                
MILD WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE. -GIH                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...                                                          
VFR CONDITIONS... WITH UNLIMITED CIGS AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS... ARE             
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH                   
TONIGHT... AND WILL PASS OVERHEAD TUESDAY MORNING. BLUSTERY WINDS               
FROM THE NW PERSIST THIS MORNING AND BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND            
PROJECTED VERTICAL MIXING... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS             
OF 20-25 KTS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY.                
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH HEADING INTO MID AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP                    
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS THE HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. PRIMARILY               
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED                
AFTER SUNSET TODAY.                                                             
LOOKING BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD                
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 8000              
FEET WILL BE INCREASING AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE                    
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE                
REGION FROM THE SW AND WARM AIR RIDING UP AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL                
COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS                  
STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE               
TUESDAY NIGHT. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTENDING                 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY BEYOND AS A COLD FRONT                     
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. -GIH                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD                                                            
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...HARTFIELD                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1050 AM CST MON DEC 22 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND SNOW                  
CHANCES. THROUGH 00 UTC TONIGHT...GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO                
USED A BLEND FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT DID              
KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES PRIMARILY USING BETTER                    
INITIALIZED 12 UTC RUC GUIDANCE. MAV/MET MOS NUMBERS WERE 5-10                  
DEGREES TO WARM FOR THIS MORNINGS LOWS AND WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL                 
CLOUDS THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY AND BEST PRE-TROUGH LOW-LEVEL                 
WARM ADVECTION DELAYED UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT               
TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUITE AS MUCH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO              
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN                     
FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE FORECAST.                  
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE/INVERTED TROUGH                
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS/                   
POSSIBLE ADVISORY HEADLINES. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE AFTERNOON                 
FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR SKY AND CIGS WITH WINDS TURNING FROM SW TO S ARE EXPECTED                   
TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. CI AND AC WILL THEN               
OVERSPREAD AREA QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS LOWERING AS                    
INVERTED TROF AND CHC OF -SN APPROACHES AFTER 03Z.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST MON DEC 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT             
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL              
AND E ND INTO E SD. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS ARE                  
ACTUALLY IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE                 
RIDGE AND THE LOW THAT FOLLOWS IT. THUS...ENDED UP USING A MODEL                
BLEND FOR FORECAST...WITH THE GFS SYSTEM TIMING PREFERRED AS IT WAS             
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE NAM.                    
THE RIDGE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. WITH LITTLE MIXING             
BUT PLENTY OF SUN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO             
RECOVER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR HIGHS TODAY.            
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG AN                  
INVERTED TROF THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR               
SNOW DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE 700MB BEST LIFT AND 850MB Q-VECTOR               
CONVERGENCE REMAIN S OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE LOW...THERE WILL BE              
ADEQUATE LIFT AND WAA ALONG THE TROF AXIS TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE                 
SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION               
NORTH OF A GFK TO BJI LINE...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL                
ACCUMULATION S OF THIS LINE APPEARS REASONABLE BY THE TIME THE TROF             
EXITS BY WED MORNING. WITH MINIMAL WINDS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS                  
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES            
AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SNOWFALL            
POTENTIAL TO DETERMINE IF ANY SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION OCCURS WHICH               
WOULD WARRANT A HEADLINE.                                                       
THE PARADE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH                 
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE N PLAINS FOR                     
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES             
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON THU NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING              
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW TO START OUT THE WEEKEND.                    
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROGERS/NG                                                                       
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1236 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN                   
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH                  
WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN WILL MOVE                
QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SURGE AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM                
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH                    
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM-WRF AND THE LATEST RUC DUE TO THEIR                
BETTER HANDLING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE              
REGION TODAY.                                                                   
MODELS SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE                  
REGION TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST DROP EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW                    
REGION WHERE THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL INFILTRATE FIRST.                 
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EARLY AND WILL TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS                
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 20 SOUTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN               
AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE                
NE WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL                
ALSO GUST AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE AND MIXING                     
SCHEMES SUGGEST REGION WILL BE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY AND HAVE                
OPTED AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT TO COVER THE                 
WINDY CONDITIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE PLUMMETING WIND                
CHILL READINGS AND HAVE THUS ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE               
ENTIRE REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES               
WILL APPROACH 20 BELOW NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5 BELOW SE.                          
SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...LEAVING PARTLY TO                
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THEREAFTER...INCREASING RH             
BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB WILL ENCROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW...               
ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM AND ADVECT SE.                            
SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW EARLY HIGHS,..UPDATED             
TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND ZONE FORECAST WORDING.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                      
AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES                   
REGION AND AS HIGHER LOW LVL RH AIR MOVES SE ACROSS THE                         
REGION...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY TONIGHT. SFC                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING                   
HOURS...SO BLUSTERY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH                
WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT                    
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 DUE TO AN                       
APPROACHING SFC TROF AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT. HAVE RELIED ON                 
RAW NAM-WRF SFC TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SHOULD HANDLE               
THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS BETTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL RANGE               
FROM NEAR 0 NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. A WIND CHILL                      
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.                                                 
ON MONDAY...COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE                
OHIO VALLEY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY FROM SW               
TO NE THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE                     
MORNING ACRS THE NE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO               
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY AFTERNOON...WIND CHILLS WILL RISE ABOVE               
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE                
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.                                                        
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY                  
EVENING...SKIES WILL BRIEFLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. THEREAFTER...MID              
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AHEAD OF NEXT               
DEVELOPING WX SYSTEM.                                                           
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE              
LOW AND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...BRING AN ABUNDANT SURGE OF                  
GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF                
PCPN ONSET BY TUESDAY AFTN. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...AIR                  
ALOFT WILL WARM MUCH QUICKER THAN AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL               
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO                   
RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR                  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NW WITH SOME SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS                
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE RIVER. AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES           
TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WILL              
CONTINUE TO WARM AND ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD TURN OVER TO JUST RAIN                
BY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A DECENT RAINFALL EVENT                  
ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHERE UP TO AN INCH MAY FALL.                           
THE PROSPECTS FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS ARE NOT LOOKING GOOD ATTM.                  
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NW OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...                
SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS                       
SCENARIO WILL PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH                   
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CHANCES                 
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT IS MINIMAL              
AS SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE EXIT QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE              
BEFORE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS               
DAY PROVIDING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL                
THEN QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.                    
MODELS VARYING SOME ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL               
KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE                
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PCPN MAINLY RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE VFR. HOWEVER...WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30                 
KNOTS WILL BE A PROBLEM ESPECIALLY AT CVG WHERE CROSS WINDS WILL                
AFFECT THE MAIN RUNWAYS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN AFTER                  
04Z...THOUGH DRY AIR MAY INHIBIT THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE.             
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER AROUND 15Z EXCEPT AT CMH AND LCK               
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN THROUGH 18Z.                                
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-             
     042>046-051>053-060>062.                                                   
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY             
     FOR OHZ054>056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.                                
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY             
     FOR KYZ089>100.                                                            
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.             
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY             
     FOR INZ066-073>075-080.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN                                                    
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL                                                         
AVIATION...CONIGLIO                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1141 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE               
WIND CHILL WARNING GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS STILL              
CLOSE TO OR JUST MEETING CRITERIA. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AS                   
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA. NEW                   
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES FACING THE NEAR TERM THIS MORNING DEALS WITH               
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS & SNOWFALL THIS MORNING...AND SNOWFALL                
POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.                                                 
CURRENTLY MSAS IS SHOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH                
CWA ATTM...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AS SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE              
APPROACHES THE AREA. CURRENTLY KABR IS GUSTING TO 30KTS...WITH                  
KPIR GUSTING TO 44KTS. WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY WELL BELOW ZERO...WIND              
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA HAVING NO TROUBLE BEING MET. AS WRAP-AROUND              
WAA/TROWEL DROPS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE AN              
UPTICK IN THE SNOW COVERAGE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY 18Z WAA                  
FINALLY BEGINS TO WANE AS THETA-E FORCING BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL.                 
THE DECISION IS THEN WILL THERE BE ENOUGH LIGHT SNOW TO COUPLE                  
WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO JUSTIFY A HEADLINE FOR THE BLOWING                     
SNOW...OR WILL THE WIND CHILL WARNING TAKE CENTER STAGE?                        
ATTM...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL WARNING DUE TO HIGHER                      
PERSONAL DANGER...BUT ADD A MENTION OF BLSN AND RESTRICTED VSBYS                
TO WSW STATEMENT. ALSO...WITH LATEST RUC SHOWING THAT MAIN                      
PRESSURE RISE AXIS WILL REACH THE ERN CWA BY 18Z THIS                           
AFTERNOON...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND IN TIME THE WIND CHILL WARNING                 
THROUGH 22Z. LOCAL ABRWRF MODEL SHOWS THAT SFC WINDS WILL FALL                  
RATHER FAST THEREAFTER.                                                         
CWA THEN CATCHES A BRIEF BREAK...ALBEIT COLD...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                
MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MEX GUIDANCE VALUES              
WERE THE COLDEST...AND HAVE UNDERCUT THAT BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO.              
GIVEN STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE...NO CLOUDS FORECAST TO ADVECT IN               
UNTIL AFT 12Z MONDAY AND DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...SHOULD BE PRIME                
CONDITIONS TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                     
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE                 
CWA. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH                  
ROBUST WAA MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. 85H/7H THETA-E FORCING                  
BECOMES PRETTY IMPRESSIVE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME ON TUESDAY...AND 85H-7H              
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO SHOW RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAA LIFTING INTO               
THE REGION. BUFKIT SHOWS THAT PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION MAY BE A                 
TAD HIGH...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEST VALUES OF LIFT THROUGH THE                  
LAYER. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT...AND                 
ALSO GONE WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY NIGHT IN                  
ANTICIPATION OF STRONG WAA. AM A BIT WORRIED ABOUT HOW QUICK THE                
SW PART OF THE CWA WILL MOISTEN UP MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR                
PCPN DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL POPS 18Z-00Z                    
MONDAY GIVEN RAPID INCREASE SEEN IN THE 85H-7H LAYER SPEC                       
HUMIDITIES DURING THAT TIME. HAVE ALSO BOLSTERED THE SNOWFALL                   
TOTAL GRID FOR THE 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY GRID.                       
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM END OF                
SHORT TERM PERIOD HAVING MOVED EAST INTO MN WITH MOST OF THE                    
PRECIP ALSO HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...HAVE                      
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR TUESDAY                
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS                    
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT              
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT                  
LOWS ONCE AGAIN...WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO QUITE POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS              
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WAA PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF                 
THE WEEK. GFS STILL HANGING ONTO A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE                  
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH               
DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO IGNORE THIS                  
FEATURE. LOOKS LIKE POPS HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY REMOVED FOR THURSDAY               
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT IT APPEARS AS IF                      
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC                
IN SAYING THE NORTHERN CWA COULD SEE 20 DEGREES WHILE THE                       
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WARM INTO THE MID 20S.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOST CLOUD COVER MOVED EAST OF THE               
AREA. ASOS OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING CLOUD LAYERS BUT EVEN THESE               
REPORTS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED AS WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND                   
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW BECOMES LESS OF A PROBLEM. THROUGH THE                
DAY EXPECT THE REPORTED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WINDS               
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES              
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE GROUND OPERATIONS PROBLEMATIC. BY THIS                    
EVENING EXPECT A RETURN OF GOOD VFR WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS AND                 
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISHING TO 10 TO              
15 KTS LATE THIS EVENING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR            
     BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-                   
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-                   
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-               
     WALWORTH.                                                                  
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BIG STONE-            
     TRAVERSE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...TMT                                                                 
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
337 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY                                       
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES FACING THE NEAR TERM THIS MORNING DEALS WITH               
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS & SNOWFALL THIS MORNING...AND SNOWFALL                
POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.                                                 
CURRENTLY MSAS IS SHOWING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH                
CWA ATTM...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AS SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE              
APPROACHES THE AREA. CURRENTLY KABR IS GUSTING TO 30KTS...WITH                  
KPIR GUSTING TO 44KTS. WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY WELL BELOW ZERO...WIND              
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA HAVING NO TROUBLE BEING MET. AS WRAP-AROUND              
WAA/TROWEL DROPS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE AN              
UPTICK IN THE SNOW COVERAGE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY 18Z WAA                  
FINALLY BEGINS TO WANE AS THETA-E FORCING BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL.                 
THE DECISION IS THEN WILL THERE BE ENOUGH LIGHT SNOW TO COUPLE                  
WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO JUSTIFY A HEADLINE FOR THE BLOWING                     
SNOW...OR WILL THE WIND CHILL WARNING TAKE CENTER STAGE?                        
ATTM...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL WARNING DUE TO HIGHER                      
PERSONAL DANGER...BUT ADD A MENTION OF BLSN AND RESTRICTED VSBYS                
TO WSW STATEMENT. ALSO...WITH LATEST RUC SHOWING THAT MAIN                      
PRESSURE RISE AXIS WILL REACH THE ERN CWA BY 18Z THIS                           
AFTERNOON...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND IN TIME THE WIND CHILL WARNING                 
THROUGH 22Z. LOCAL ABRWRF MODEL SHOWS THAT SFC WINDS WILL FALL                  
RATHER FAST THEREAFTER.                                                         
CWA THEN CATCHES A BRIEF BREAK...ALBEIT COLD...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                
MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MEX GUIDANCE VALUES              
WERE THE COLDEST...AND HAVE UNDERCUT THAT BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO.              
GIVEN STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE...NO CLOUDS FORECAST TO ADVECT IN               
UNTIL AFT 12Z MONDAY AND DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...SHOULD BE PRIME                
CONDITIONS TO MAXIMIZE RADITIONAL COOLING.                                      
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE                 
CWA. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH                  
ROBUST WAA MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. 85H/7H THETA-E FORCING                  
BECOMES PRETTY IMPRESSIVE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME ON TUESDAY...AND 85H-7H              
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO SHOW RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAA LIFTING INTO               
THE REGION. BUFKIT SHOWS THAT PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION MAY BE A                 
TAD HIGH...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEST VALUES OF LIFT THROUGH THE                  
LAYER. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT...AND                 
ALSO GONE WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY NIGHT IN                  
ANTICIPATION OF STRONG WAA. AM A BIT WORRIED ABOUT HOW QUICK THE                
SW PART OF THE CWA WILL MOISTEN UP MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR                
PCPN DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL POPS 18Z-00Z                    
MONDAY GIVEN RAPID INCREASE SEEN IN THE 85H-7H LAYER SPEC                       
HUMIDITIES DURING THAT TIME. HAVE ALSO BOLSTERED THE SNOWFALL                   
TOTAL GRID FOR THE 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY GRID.                       
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM END OF                
SHORT TERM PERIOD HAVING MOVED EAST INTO MN WITH MOST OF THE                    
PRECIP ALSO HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...HAVE                      
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR TUESDAY                
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS                    
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT              
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT                  
LOWS ONCE AGAIN...WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO QUITE POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS              
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WAA PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF                 
THE WEEK. GFS STILL HANGING ONTO A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE                  
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH               
DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO IGNORE THIS                  
FEATURE. LOOKS LIKE POPS HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY REMOVED FOR THURSDAY               
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT IT APPEARS AS IF                      
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC                
IN SAYING THE NORTHERN CWA COULD SEE 20 DEGREES WHILE THE                       
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WARM INTO THE MID 20S.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE               
MORNING HOURS WITH AREAS OF -SN AND BLSN. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED TO               
AROUND 1/2 SM TO 1 SM AT TIMES ACROSS KPIR/KABR/KATY TERMINALS.                 
LESS SNOW COVER AT KMBG SHOULD PREVENT VSBYS FROM GETTING THIS                  
LOW. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND              
WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS                 
WILL BRING AN END TO THE BLSN.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR            
     BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-                   
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-                   
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-               
     WALWORTH.                                                                  
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BIG STONE-            
     TRAVERSE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...TMT                                                                 
AVIATION...TMT                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1239 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                     
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO                
INCREASE WITH LOWERING BASES...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES              
THE REGION. MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE              
TAF PERIOD WHERE -SN AND PL WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE IS                 
THE POTENTIAL FOR ZR AT FWA LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH ZR EXPECTED               
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA THIS EVENING. MAINLY SNOW                   
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1 MILE OR                  
POSSIBLY LESS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ZR WILL                    
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN IN THE SE WED MORNING WITH A                 
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. IFR AND LIFR                
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND.                      
HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE OUT LOWER RESTRICTIONS UNTIL BETTER TIMING                 
AND LOCATION ARE ESTABLISHED.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT TEMPS SOME GIVEN LATEST ADVECTION               
PATTERN AND CONSIDERING UPSTREAM CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.                   
EXPECT LOWS OVER FAR LOWER MICH TO BE STEADY NEAR ZERO WITH                     
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE ZERO OVER MOST OF NORTHERN INDIANA                 
AND NW OHIO.                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSUE WILL BE SLIDING OVER FORECAST AREA THIS                   
EVENING BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER FROZEN SNOW/SLEET              
PACK AND FRESH FOOT OF SNOW IN FAR NORTH ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND             
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL YEILD OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING                 
CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. AS USUAL...MODELS                 
THERMAL FIELDS AND MOS CANNOT MODEL THIS SMALL SCALE COOLING AND ARE            
MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPS. RUC HAS BEST HANDLE ON SITUATION ONCE                 
AGAIN BUT IT MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO COLD. RUC13 DROPS MOST AREAS OF                
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA TO BELOW NEGATIVE 10 BY 05Z. WHILE THIS IS             
POSSIBLE IN LOCAL AREAS...NOT READY TO GO THAT LOW AREA WIDE GIVEN              
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...FEEL CONFIDENT IN FAST DROP THIS              
EVENING TO BELOW ZERO GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN SINGLE DIGITS OR            
LOW TEENS AND DEW POINTS IN SINGLE DIGITS WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.              
WILL BE OUT OF COLLABORATION MOST AREAS BUT JUST CANNOT FIND REASON             
TO NOT DROP TEMPS GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING AND MODEL WARM BIAS LAST            
TWO DAYS WITH THIS ARCTIC AIR. MOS LOWS TONIGHT IN SEVERAL AREAS ARE            
WARMER THAN 20Z OBSERVATIONS. WILL HAVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW AND EVENING             
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                                                     
RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT WITH                   
INCREASING CLOUDS. MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES ON TUESDAY THOUGH               
12Z MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW               
DEVELOPING WEST BY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES ON MODELS APPEAR                 
SIMILAR INITIALLY BUT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO            
TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM QUICKER TO WARM LOWER LEVELS WHILE GFS SLOWER.               
BASICALLY CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS TREND BUT BROUGHT CHANGEOVER TO               
RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN A LITTLE QUICKER AND ALSO MOVED MIXED PCPN                 
FARTHER NORTH. STILL FEEL MODELS WILL WAVER A LITTLE MORE WITH NEXT             
RUN GIVEN TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES SO WILL KEEP SPIRIT OF FORECAST AND             
MIXED PCPN INTACT AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW WATCH HEADLINE TO                    
CONTINUE AND INCREASE MENTION OF MIXED PCPN NORTH. MODELS BEGINNNIG             
TO CONVERGE ON WARMING WEDNESDAY ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT IN FAR              
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AGAIN TRENDED GRIDS IN THAT DIRECTION.                     
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                 
LESS COMPLICATED EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS ON WEEKEND STORM.              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WANING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE                
MAINLY OVER BERRIEN COUNTY AND SCT SHSN/FLURRIES NORTH COUNTIES                 
THROUGH THE DAY.  SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SHOULD END EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE REGION UNDER SFC RIDGING FOR CHRISTMAS              
DAY.                                                                            
WEEKEND EVENT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AS WESTERN TROF LIFTS NE INTO                
THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES OFF BECOMING NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED               
WITH SFC LOW THROUGH QUEBEC BY SUNDAY.  AS STRONG WAA GETS UNDERWAY             
AHEAD OF SFC TROF AREA OF ASCENT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA                
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SFC FRONT ON SATURDAY.   USED COMPROMISE BETWEEN             
GEFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING AND ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STRONGLY                    
SUGGESTIVE OF AN ALL RAIN EVENT HAVE KEPT RA/SN MENTION AT ONSET                
BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TAKES SHAPE WHICH IS LIKELY                     
OVERDONE.   KEPT TEMPS MORE MODERATE BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO AND                  
SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION MANIFEST AS SEEN WOULD EXPECT A NEEDED                    
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD.  VERY EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT DYNAMICS AS               
CURRENTLY SHOWN ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 150KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX             
AND ROBUST 80KT LL JET ASSISTING WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING/MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT IN WARM SECTOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS                   
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT IN FOLLOWUP MODEL CYCLES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING           
     FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING           
     FOR MIZ077>081.                                                            
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING           
     FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                                    
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST                    
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                            
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
UPDATE...SKIPPER                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
407 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY              
LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE              
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL                 
MOISTURE IS STREAMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES IN THE SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE.             
WITHIN THE FLOW...MAIN SHRTWVS OF NOTE ARE OVER SW MN...NE AZ AND               
OVER NW CA. UNDERNEATH THE FLOW...850MB WINDS FROM PROFILERS OVER               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN SPEED OUT OF THE               
SOUTH AND SW...NOW 60-70KT. THESE WINDS ARE HELPING TO BRING                    
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THIS HAS BEEN                
TAKING A WHILE BECAUSE OF SO MUCH DRY AIR INITIALLY TO OVERCOME.                
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE TEENS F IN OKLAHOMA. NONETHELESS...             
THE MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENOUGH SUCH THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE                   
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DPVA FROM THE SW              
MN SHRTWV...LIGHT SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT OVER NRN IA INTO SRN                      
MN/CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL/SRN WI. TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS APPEAR TO              
BE BTWN 1-2 INCHES. SNOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...BEING IMPACTED BY             
DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF               
15C OR GREATER FROM 950MB UP TO 500MB. THIS DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED               
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSING LOWER MI AND INTO THE                   
MID-ATLANTIC NOW. SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH HAVE ALLOWED            
ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES              
DROPPED DOWN BELOW ZERO LAST EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES             
AND THE DRY AIR. HOWEVER...NOW WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND CLOUDS                 
INCREASING... TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO SLOWLY RISE. OFF TO THE              
WEST... DOWNSLOPING MID-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES HAS RESULTED IN              
997MB LOW PRESSURE IN NE COLORADO.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER SW MN IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS UPPER MI THIS               
MORNING. NEXT SHRTWV CURRENTLY IN NE AZ IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH SE            
MN BY 00Z. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF DPVA WILL OCCUR BTWN 12 AND 16Z              
AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF DPVA SHOULD HELP             
BRING THE SNOW TO OUR SW INTO THE CWA...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODEL LIQUID PCPN VALUES OF                  
0.05-0.10 OF AN INCH SEEM REASONABLE WITH THIS ROUND OF FORCING...              
GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST               
MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...RESULTING IN A             
SNOW TO WATER RATIO PROBABLY AROUND 20 TO 1...SO BASICALLY THE                  
PERIOD BTWN 12-18Z SHOULD SEE ABOUT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS MATCHES            
UP WELL WITH OBSERVED VALUES TO OUR SW AS WELL. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY              
LIGHTEN UP EARLY IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV...BUT                    
CONTINUOUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN ON THE 285-300K SFCS WILL LIKELY                
KEEP SOME GOING. IN FACT...LATER IN THE AFTN SNOW SHOULD INCREASE               
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHRTWV COMING INTO SE MN...ALONG                
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120-130KT              
JET STREAK LIFTING INTO SE WI. THEREFORE ANOTHER 0.05-0.10 OF AN                
INCH OF PCPN IS LIKELY...OR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE FORCING AGAIN              
IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS LAKE                 
EFFECT BANDING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTN WHEN THE               
LOW LEVELS GET SATURATED ENOUGH TO HELP THE LAKE PRODUCE THE BAND.              
AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD ON THE POSITION OF THE BAND...RANGING FROM ERN            
DELTA IN THE NAM TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY IN THE REGIONAL                      
CANADIAN/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN. GFS IS SPLIT BTWN THE TWO...BUT ACTUALLY            
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE. IT SUGGEST THE BAND FIRST IMPACTS THE                
GARDEN PENINSULA AREA WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN HEADS EAST             
ACROSS LUCE AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AS WINDS VEER SW. THIS LAKE                  
ENHANCEMENT SHOULD HELP ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO...SO A SOLID              
ADVISORY EVENT IS LIKELY. DECIDED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO DELTA             
COUNTY IN CASE THE NAM SHOULD PAN OUT...AND THAT THE GENERAL                    
SYNOPTIC SNOW IS CLOSE TO ADVISORY ANYWAY. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE                
WARMER THAN PAST DAYS...RISING INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS SHOWN BY                  
MODELS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS...DUE TO NEW TROUGHING DROPPING              
DOWN OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A STRONG SHRTWV MOVING INTO CA               
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST...IT CARRIES THE               
COLORADO LOW EASTWARD TO THE ST LOUIS MO AREA BY 12Z WED. OVER UPPER            
MI...A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN.               
THIS TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK THAT ACTIVE...PRIMARILY DUE TO A LOSS OF              
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANY DPVA (SHRTWV OVER SE MN ENDS UP CROSSING                
UPPER MI IN THE EVENING). STILL...A FEW FLURRIES OR -SN SEEM                    
POSSIBLE...AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY               
LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD MOVE INTO MACKINAC COUNTY BY               
MIDNIGHT...SO GOING ADVISORY END TIME LOOKS REASONABLE. DESPITE LACK            
OF PCPN...SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...PRIMARILY LOW AND HIGH            
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP...EVEN WITH WINDS               
DIMINISHING FROM THE BREEZY STATE DURING THE DAY. WENT WITH A BLEND             
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                                                      
WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM OF FOCUS WILL BE ON THE LOW IN ST LOUIS MO AT             
12Z WED...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV IN WRN MO (CURRENTLY THE              
ONE IN NW CALIFORNIA). MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING             
THE SHRTWV NE THROUGH NRN IL AND INTO LAKE HURON BY 00Z THU...                  
PHASING WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER              
THE YELLOWSTONE NATL PARK AREA. THE NET RESULT IS TO DEEPEN THE SFC             
LOW AS IT HEADS UP INTO CENTRAL LAKE HURON LATE WED. THE NAM IS BY              
FAR THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS NOT TO                    
DIFFERENT (AROUND 1000MB). THE GFS AND UKMET ARE THE DEEPEST WITH               
PRESSURES AROUND 990MB. DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH OUR                
LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN WHICH AS A PRESSURE AROUND 997MB...BUT A DEEPER               
SOLUTION IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE GIVEN PHASING PRESENCE. EITHER                  
WAY...MAJORITY OF DEFORMATION PCPN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW IS              
LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH OR JUST CLIP THE LAKE MI COUNTIES AND               
LUCE COUNTY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. NORTHERLY FLOW                 
INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -13C              
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.             
COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION FROM THE LAKE EFFECT...SINCE            
IT APPEARS MOST OF THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC                 
GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THE COOLING 850MB TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR                 
AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PROBABLY FALL. HAVE AGAIN FOLLOWED A              
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.                                                    
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SHRTWV AND SFC LOW OVER LAKE            
HURON LOOK TO RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE NE...WITH MODELS INDICATING               
THEM REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z THU. BEHIND THEM...A                
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UPPER MI BY 12Z. COLD                    
ADVECTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW SHOULD CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT...BUT FLOW TURNING ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE                 
RIDGE MOVING IN...ALONG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF            
THE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT AND THE BANDS MOVING. STILL MAINTAINED HIGH               
POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND EAST GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LAKE                  
EFFECT OCCURRING. INLAND AREAS COULD GET QUITE CHILLY AFTER MIDNIGHT            
AS WINDS DROP OFF AND SKIES CLEAR. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF            
GOING BELOW GUIDANCE...TO AS LOW AS 8 BELOW NEAR THE WI BORDER.                 
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                  
BUILDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRYING AND                   
SUBSIDENCE. IN FACT...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOME                  
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO -5             
TO -9C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 20S. DID NOT            
WANT TO GO TOO MUCH HIGHER GIVEN THE COLD START OFF.                            
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE               
WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z FRI...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WYOMING.              
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL IN              
GENERAL OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE              
OUT AT LEAST INTO THE PLAINS...OR PERHAPS NE TOWARDS THE UPPER                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE CASE OF THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN. IN ANY                  
EVENT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHRTWV LIFTING THROUGH THE SW FLOW                
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING GULF                    
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...SIMILAR TO THAT OF             
TODAY. THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING IT            
INTO UPPER MI THU NIGHT AND EXITING SOMETIME FRI MORNING. CONTINUED             
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INDICATED FRI AFTERNOON AS A PLUME OF ABOVE 0C               
850MB TEMPS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI. THIS MEANS CONTINUED PCPN             
IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND                 
RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR STRAIGHT RAIN WOULD BE ALONG LAKE MI.                     
REGARDING TEMPS...LOWS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE EVENING AS                      
INCREASING WINDS AND PCPN CAUSE READINGS TO RISE. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB            
UP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ON FRI...SOMETHING NOT SEEN IN UPPER              
MI SINCE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THE 15TH OF THIS MONTH.                     
BEYOND FRI...SOME CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE FRI NIGHT/SAT TIME                  
PERIOD. ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN OVERALL CONTINUE TO MOVE MORE AND              
MORE NW WITH THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE                 
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TAKING THE LEAD ROLE IN THE TREND WITH THE OTHER              
RUNS CATCHING UP TO IT. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS THAT FRI                
NIGHT COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT IT            
HAS BEEN...WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH            
THE NIGHT. DID NOT GO COMPLETELY THAT WAY YET...BUT TRENDED IN THAT             
DIRECTION. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT...SO            
RAISED HIGHS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI.                 
FUTURE REFINEMENT TO THE FRI NIGHT/SAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE NEEDED               
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW             
BECOMES CLEARER.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOR CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY              
FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UPSLOPING INTO THE                  
KEWEENAW PENINSULA PRODUCING AN OCCASIONAL LES AND MVFR CEILINGS AND            
VISIBILITIES. EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH -SN            
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND                  
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR RANGE.                                          
AT SAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.               
BEFORE SNOW IN ADVANCE OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN DURING THE                 
MORNING AND DROPS VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO IFR/LIFR RANGE. WINDS              
WILL PICK UP AROUND NOON AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA.                
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO               
MVFR TUESDAY EVENING.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...WITH A FEW GALE            
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER EASTERN LAKE                     
SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL                
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN                
WISCONSIN TO MISSOURI WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD THEN MOVE TO                
LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE LOWER OHIO             
VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE            
TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE               
DAY THURSDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE                
NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE                  
DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO CAN BE EXPECTED MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST               
     TONIGHT FOR MIZ007-014-085.                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS              
     EVENING FOR MIZ013.                                                        
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
316 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY              
THIS MORNING...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RUC-PROGGED ISENTROPIC                
LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280K-                 
290K SURFACES. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING                
TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN/WI THIS MORNING...AS THE PV ANOMALY NOSES INTO       
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN. ESTIMATE TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH               
RANGE HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LAPS               
SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES. ESTIMATE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE                 
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING /MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL                
WI/...WHERE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 G/KG. THE              
ADVISORY APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE                     
CORRELATION OF THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING AROUND               
THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE IN THE 15               
TO 25 KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED               
TO LINGER THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT                  
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS THE INVERTED TROUGH NOSES              
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE                
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES              
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO              
THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW                       
NORMAL. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE                    
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE              
NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE CWA THE OPPORTUNITY TO                  
WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE                    
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COME WITH A PRICE...AS LOW LEVEL                       
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A               
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A POTENTIAL FOR            
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED              
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FROM 12Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...WITH               
DECENT AGREEMENT/CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL                      
SOLUTIONS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SNOW IS UNDERWAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND                   
RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 1                
TO 2 SM RANGE SOON AFTER SNOW BEGINS WITH SOME 1/2 TO 3/4 SM                    
APPEARING. EXPECT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES TO BECOME MORE                       
PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3/4 AND 1 SM OVER THE NEXT FEW                   
HOURS AS BETTER ORGANIZED FORCING DEVELOPS. SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO              
KSTC/KMSP/KRNH RIGHT AROUND 06Z AND AT KEAU AROUND 08Z. EXPECT A 3              
TO 5 HOUR WINDOW OF STRONG FORCING AT EACH SITE WITH PRIME TIME                 
BEING BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z AT KMSP/KSTC/KRNH AND A BIT EARLIER AT                 
KAXN AND BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z AT KEAU. THESE PERIODS SHOULD YIELD                 
VIS AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES. KRWF SEEING ITS BEST SNOWFALL AT                    
ISSUANCE AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. CEILINGS PRIMARILY FROM              
1000 TO 2000 FT WITH PERIODS OF 600 TO 900 FT IN THE HEAVIEST                   
SNOW. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT KRWF MAY BRING SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER                
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MID               
MORNING. SNOW WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE LATTER PART OF              
THE MORNING BUT PERSISTENT WEAKER LIFT SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW INTO              
MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION. A                
SECOND ROUND OF LIFT CROSSING SOUTHERN WI WILL GRAZE KEAU DURING                
THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO BROUGHT IN TEMPO 3SM IN THE AFTERNOON TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                               
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON               
BEFORE A TROUGH AXIS PASSES SHIFTING THEM TO SOUTHWEST THEN WEST-               
NORTHWEST BY EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FT                 
RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA              
INTO THE EVENING SO A LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO AROUND 1000 FT OR                 
LOWER IS POSSIBLE.  ..MDB..                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-           
     BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-                    
     ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-RAMSEY-RICE-                   
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.                           
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLUE               
     EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI                   
     PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-                 
     SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.                
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BARRON-          
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/MDB                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
450 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE              
OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN TONIGHT AS              
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY              
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. COLDER DRIER                 
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS               
MRNG AS INITIAL SHOT OF ISENT LIFT PASSES THRU. LOWS HAVE ALREADY               
BEEN REACHED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND ARE BEGINNING A SLOW CLIMB AS                
LO LVL WAA DVLPG. AT 09Z...TEMPS WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.               
FULL PLATE OF FCST ISSUES TODAY AS DVLPG SFC LO EJECTS OUT OF THE               
CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. LO LVL MOISTURE                        
AND INCREASING ISENT LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ENABLE LIGHT                
PCPN TO DVLP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SFC HI PRES ALREADY PUSHING                 
OFF TO THE EAST BUT REMNANT ARCTIC AIRMASS LEFTOVER AND THIS WILL               
POSE SOME PCPN TYPE PROBLEMS FOR THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. HAVE                  
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/03Z SREF/CURRENT RUC FOR TWO                     
SPECIFIC REASONS. FIRST...ALL THREE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING                
ARCTIC AIRMASS THIS MRNG...AND CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSER TO              
THEIR SOLNS. SECOND...THEY ALL ARE SLOWER WITH THE EROSION OF THE               
ARCTIC AIRMASS LATER TODAY AND CONSEQUENTLY...ARE PROVIDING A MORE              
REALISTIC SOLN AS TO HOW THE NEAR SFC AIR WILL IMPACT PCPN TYPE                 
LATER. 00Z GFS SOLN ERODES ARCTIC AIRMASS RAPIDLY...TOO MUCH SO IN              
MY OPINION.                                                                     
SECOND ISSUE IS ONSET OF PCPN WHICH BELIEVE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE              
TOO SLOW WITH. GLANCE AT ISENT LIFT SPECIFICALLY BTWN 285-295K                  
LVLS SHWNG A NICE MOISTENING OF THE MID LVLS THRU THE MRNG HOURS                
ACRS WESTERN FCST AREA. BOTH GFS/NAM INDCG NICE SURGE OF STRONG                 
CROSS-CONTOUR LIFT BY MID AFTN INTO WESTERN 1/2 FCST AREA WITH                  
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN INTO THE BNDRY LYR...ROUGHLY AROUND                    
850MB. WHILE SOME LIGHT PCPN IS LKLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY ACRS FAR                
WESTERN FCST AREA...FEEL THAT THIS SURGE IN LIFT WILL BE THE                    
CATALYST IN EXPANDING PCPN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AND INCREASING PCPN               
INTENSITY TO SOME EXTENT NW OF I-71. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING                 
ANY PCPN PRIOR TO 18Z WILL FALL LARGELY IN THE FORM OF -SN OR MORE              
LIKELY AS FLURRIES. WARMING OF THE BNDRY LYR WILL ALLOW A                       
TRANSITION TO -IP AND EVENTUALLY TO -FZRA BY LATE AFTN ALONG AND                
SOUTH OF I-70. LITTLE IF ANY -SN/IP ACCUM IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME                
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED FROM THE -FZRA AS IT BECOMES THE                        
PREDOMINANT PCPN TYPE BY LATE AFTN. WITH THE POTENTIAL AT ICE                   
ACCUMS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 FROM MID                 
AFTN THRU THE EVNG...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WX ADV TO BEGIN AT 18Z.              
THE ADV IS SLATED TO DROP AT 04Z IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND                       
INCLUDING THE CMH/DAY METROS AS SFC TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV 32F                   
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVNG AND ALLOW PCPN TO CHANGE TO -RA. THE              
WINTER WX ADV WILL LAST THRU 06Z FURTHER NORTH AS APPEARS TEMPS                 
WILL NOT GO ABV FREEZING IN WEST CNTRL OH UNTIL THIS TIME. FURTHER              
SOUTH...-IP/FZRA IS EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTN AND                 
INTO THE ERLY EVNG...BUT PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENUF TO NOT               
WARRANT AN ADV IN THESE AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABV 32F ACRS                   
ENTIRE SRN 1/2 FCST AREA BY 00Z.                                                
SFC LO BEGINS A NORTHEAST TREK FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVNG...               
LIFTING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY BY DAYBREAK WED. 65-70KT 850               
LLJ WILL NOSE INTO THE OH VLY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING PCPN TO                     
INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.                  
STILL APPEARS THRU 12Z WED THAT HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL               
BE FOUND INVOF I-71 CORRIDOR AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED INTO               
THE REGION COURTESY OF THE LLJ. WILL MAINTAIN 100 POPS THRU THE                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED PREV FCST TREND AND UNDERCUT MOS GUID FOR                
HIGHS TODAY...SIGNIFICANTLY SO IN THE CASE OF THE GFSMOS. KEPT                  
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IN THE 30-35 DEG RANGE                  
TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH. IT SHOULD BE                  
NOTED THAT FCST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TEMPS AT 23-00Z THIS EVNG. LOWS              
WILL BE THE SAME AS FCST HIGHS...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE SVRL               
DEG THRU THE NIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WED AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC                
LO TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO SRN ONTARIO BY WED EVNG. 00Z GFS                       
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGEST WITH SFC LO...WHILE 00Z ECMWF AND BULK                
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE WEAKER. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS                    
WEAKER CONSENSUS ATTM. DEEP LO LVL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL                
REMAIN FOCUSED ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA THRU THE DAY...AND MAY END                
UP BEING IN TWO SHOTS. MODELS HINTING AT A DIMINISHING IN PCPN                  
INTENSITY FROM MID MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN AS LEAD 850 LLJ SHIFTS                   
EAST. ADDL JET ENERGY FOCUSED ALONG APPCHG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                 
BACK INTO THE OH VLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FROPA ON WED            
AFTN...AND MAY BRING A SECOND PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.                       
PROGS AGAIN FAVOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EFFICIENT RAINERS LKLY TO BE                
SOUTHEAST OF I-71 AS LLJ LINES UP WITH HIGHEST PWATS AND DEEPEST                
CONVERGENCE IN THESE AREAS. ADDITION OF A NICE 140KT DIFFLUENT UPR              
JET ROTATING AROUND BASE OF APPCHG UPR TROF WILL FURTHER                        
CONTRIBUTE TO RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN CAT POPS THRU THE DAY WED.                
FROPA EXPECTED DURING MID/LATE AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PCPN                 
ENDING QUICKLY BEHIND IT. POTENTIAL AT A LARGE SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES              
OF RAIN ONCE ITS ALL SAID AND DONE WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AGAIN                  
INVOF I-71 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM DOES APPEARS                   
PROGRESSIVE ENUF ATTM TO LIMIT FLOODING CONCERNS. LOCALIZED                     
NUISANCE FLOODING IS VERY LIKELY...BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT                    
EXPECTED AS AREA RIVERS/STREAMS REMAIN CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW FOR                 
THIS TIME OF YEAR.                                                              
SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH COLDER AIR              
ADVECTING INTO REGION. STRONG LO LVL WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH CAA              
EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE                   
FRONT FOR SVRL HOURS WED EVNG. HAVE INSERTED GUSTS AT 35 TO 40 MPH              
UNTIL PASSAGE OF UPR TROF LATE WED NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS               
QUICKLY...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY -SN ON BACK SIDE OF PCPN SHIELD.              
SFC HI PRES DRIFTS ACRS OH VLY CHRISTMAS DAY AS REGION WILL BE IN               
BTWN TWO SYSTEMS. LO LVL WIND FIELDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AS                  
WEAK MID LVL RIDGING DVLPS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SC DECK STRUGGLING             
TO PULL OUT OF FCST AREA. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG STRONG LO LVL               
INVERSION SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURS TRAPPING ANY                     
LEFTOVER MOISTURE BENEATH IT. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS                  
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUDS EXTENSIVELY                
FROM PREV FCST...WITH MSTLY CLDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE                 
DAY. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE IN THE WEST LATE IN THE               
DAY...BUT WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY MID/HI LVL CLOUDS AHEAD OF                
NEXT SYSTEM. ANY PCPN ASSOCD WITH APPCHG WARM FRONT SHOULD HOLD                 
OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK OR AFT ON FRI...SO LEFT DRY FCST FOR CHRISTMAS               
NIGHT.                                                                          
TEMPS...WITH SUCH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION                     
WED...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 TO MAKE IT                
INTO THE 50S. LEANED TOWARDS MET GUID FOR HIGHS. NEAR MOS GUID FOR              
LOWS WED NIGHT. WITH POTENTIAL AT MORE CLOUDS THURS...CUT BACK ON               
TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREV FCST AND MOS GUID...RUNNING MAINLY                
IN THE 30S.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE IN REGARD TO                   
SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE INCREASING                       
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF                
ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD                
TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN GOOD WAA THAT DEVELOPS...EXPECT                
TEMPS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME ANY PCPN STARTS SO WILL                  
KEEP IT ALL RAIN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BETTER FORCING                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA                
ON SATURDAY AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP INTO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. THE               
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH                  
SATURDAY NIGHT SO WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT               
AND THEN GO DRY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING OF              
FRONT...PCPN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW               
FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WILL GENERALLY             
GO AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH AND LOWS. COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN             
WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT            
MORE SEASONABLE READINGS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                    
TODAY...TRACKING NE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE                 
WIND FLOW BETWEEN THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH              
TO THE EAST WILL BRING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT OUT OF THE GULF              
OF MEXICO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WAA               
INDUCED CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY THICKENED ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND                
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAA INDUCED PCPN WILL                
LIKELY SPREAD FROM W TO E ACRS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z.               
GIVEN THE LINGERING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND DRY LOW LVLS AT                 
THE ONSET OF PCPN...THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR SOME -SNPL AT KDAY...               
KCMH...KLCK...A MIX OF -FZRASNPL AT KILN...AND SOME -FZRAPL AT                  
KCVG. HAVE KEPT KLUK WITH -RAPL EARLY ON AS IT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY               
WARMER IN THE LITTLE MIAMI RIVER VALLEY. THEN...AS SURFACE WAA                  
CONTINUES ON A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO              
CHANGE OVER TO JUST RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z.               
THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY                 
RAIN AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT FROM A STRONG LOW LVL               
JET. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON...THEN MVFR                    
CONDITIONS WITH THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...THEN EVENTUALLY IFR                     
CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TOWARD 06Z.                                               
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS                
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY                   
THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST              
     THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-053>056-060>062.                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST               
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051-052.                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST              
     THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RYAN                                                                 
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...RYAN                                                               
LONG TERM...JGL                                                                 
AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
257 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
CORRECTED FORMATTING GLITCH IN HEADLINE CODING                                  
.SYNOPSIS...STG JET FLOWING ARND NERN PAC RIDGE WAS SPLITTING                   
OVER NOAM...WITH NRN BRANCH FLOWING ARND DEEP VORTEX OVER HUDSON                
BAY...AND SRN BRANCH MAINTAINING DEEP TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE              
TREND DURING THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR ENERGY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO               
THE SRN STREAM...THEN FOR THE FLOW ACRS NOAM TO DEAMPLIFY. BY THE               
MIDDLE OF NEXT WK...LOOKS LIKE WE WL HAVE A VERY FAST WLY JET                   
FLOWING ACRS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...THROUGH WHAT WL BE BASE                
OF VERY LARGE BROAD TROF.                                                       
PATTERN WL REMAIN EXTREMELY ACTIVE AS LONG AS AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM              
REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD BE FOR THE REST OF THE WK AND INTO              
THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE CHGS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT                
QUIETER WX REGIME NEXT WK...BUT WITH STG BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSE TO               
THE AREA HAVE TO WONDER IF SOME SMALLER SCALE SYSTEMS THAT AREN/T               
REALLY FULLY RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT WL END UP COMING INTO PLAY.                  
PCPN AMNTS FOR THE NEXT WK SHOULD END UP ABV NORMAL. WOULD EXPECT               
TEMPS TO TEND TO AOB NORMAL LEVELS AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/WED. ALL KINDS OF ISSUES TO SORT OUT WITH                
THE FCST. SERIES OF SHRTWVS EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL LEAD                
TO SEVERAL SLUGS OF PCPN THE NEXT 36 HRS. FIRST SLUG NOW LIFTG                  
INTO THE RGN...BEING SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE AND ISENT LIFT AT                 
NOSE OF DECENT LLJ. GULF MOISTURE STILL WAY S...AND LOW-LEVEL                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS THE AREA NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE. BUT ENOUGH                   
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING BAND OF SNOW NWD ACRS THE AREA THIS                  
MORNING. THINK THAT WL BE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL. THEN EXPECT              
A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATER THIS MORNING. THAT/S ABOUT AS FAR AS WE               
GET BEFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST TAKES A REAL NOSE-DIVE. OVERALL...            
MODELS SUGGEST PCPN WL INCR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/2 OF THE FCST                 
AREA AGAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW                
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER               
BACK TO THE NW. THEN SOME MODELS...MAINLY THE RUC AND HIGHER                    
RESOLUTION MESO-MODELS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...INDICATE PCPN OVER                
THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA COULD JUST KEEP GOING UNTIL FINAL                
SHRTWV AND DEEPENING SFC SYSTEM RACE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW                
AFTN. THEN AGAIN...SOME OF THE MODELS DON/T GENERATE MUCH IN THE                
WAY OF PCPN AT ALL WITH SYSTEM TOMORROW. NEW GFS AND UKMET PRETTY               
IMPRESSIVE WITH QG FORCING OVER E-C WI. ECMWF HAS SYSTEM...BUT HAS              
BACKED AWAY SOMDWHAT FM IT/S EARLIER FCSTS. WAS REALLY HOPING TO                
GET MORE OF A CONSENSUS ON THE SYSTEM NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN 48                 
HRS OF THE EVENT. MY FEELING RIGHT NOW IS THAT IT WL BE AN ADVISORY-            
TYPE EVENT. BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT...PLUS I DON/T HAVE A                 
REAL GOOD COURSE OF ACTION IF I PULL THE WATCH. I WOULDN/T WANT TO              
JUST DROP IT...SINCE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY SNOW. DON/T WANT              
TO HAVE A SECOND ADVISORY STARTING LESS THAN 12 HOURS AFTER FIRST               
EXPIRES...AND DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SIG PRECIP JUST                   
CONTINUING TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY THOUGH TOMORROW. SO...WE/LL               
JUST KEEP THE WATCH. WITH PLENTY OF TRAVEL OCCURRING TOMORROW...IT              
WON/T BE A BAD THINK TO KEEP THE POTENTAIL FOR MORE SNOW TOMORROW               
FRONT AND CENTER...EVEN THOUGH I SHADED BACK ON AMNTS AND NOW AM A              
LITTLE BLO WARNING CRITERIA.                                                    
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT               
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT FRIDAY                      
ONWARD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM              
TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES.  NO ONE MODEL STANDS OUT AT THIS                     
PARTICULAR TIME...SO INCORPORATED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF                  
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TREND TOWARD MORE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.  IN               
THE END...GENERAL NEG PNA PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WILL SEE MORE            
OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP BY END OF THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL RAPIDLY        
MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC DURING THE EVENING.  NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW               
WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY THE START OF THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...OP                 
MODELS POINT TOWARDS LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN THE BACK EDGE OF            
THE COMMA HEAD STILL AFFECTING THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.  AS A             
RESULT...STILL TOO EARLY TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR             
FLURRIES FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND PERHAPS OVER               
VILAS AS WELL BEFORE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE WEST.  SKIES WILL                 
CLEAR HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW LEVEL               
RIDGE AXIS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY              
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES             
ESTABLISHED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING POORLY AS OF LATE                   
CAPTURING THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES.  HAVE BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A             
FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY...FIGURING VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS ON AREA              
SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.                                 
REST OF THE FORECAST...LARGELY DEPENDANT UPON TRACK OF THE SURFACE              
LOW...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARM AIR REACHES OUR NECK OF THE            
WOODS.  A SHORTWAVE STILL WAY OUT IN THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIVE SE INTO            
THE MEAN WESTERN NOAM TROUGH AND THEN EJECT NE TOWARDS THE GREAT                
LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY JUST STARTING TO             
GET REASONABLY SAMPLED BY THE ALASKAN UPPER AIR NETWORK THIS                    
EVENING.  REGARDLESS...00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT            
TRACKING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH               
PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...12Z GFS ENSEMBLE             
MEMBERS TAKE THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER SOUTHERN LAKE                    
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SO STILL QUITE A BIT OF                 
SPREAD AMONGST THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO             
THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF.                                                
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL PUSH A              
POCKET OF MODERATE 700-500MB -DIVQ AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM SW TO             
NE THURSDAY NIGHT.  DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH MIXING                 
RATIOS APPROACH 3 G/KG WILL SURGE NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SATURATION            
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  MODEL QPFS SUGGEST               
THIS WILL LEAD TO A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL AT BEST WITH THE HIGHEST                  
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH.                                                         
LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON FRIDAY WITH INDICATIONS OF MID-LEVEL                  
MOISTURE STRIPPING OUT WHILE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES DOWN             
LOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  EVEN THE GFS            
ENSEMBLE SHOWS 30-40KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY BOOST 850MB              
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C.  THE QUESTION IS HOW WELL WILL                  
SURFACE TEMPS RESPOND GIVEN SNOWPACK ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL             
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI?  00Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SEVERAL               
HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY AS AN ABOVE 0C WARM              
LAYER DEVELOPS ALOFT BEFORE BL TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TYPE TO             
BE ALL LIQUID.  TOUGH TO GET CUTE WITH PRECIP TYPE THIS FAR OUT                 
GIVEN CHANGES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK/TIMING ARE EXPECTED.  SO WILL GO             
WITH A MIXED BAG FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING THE SE            
FORECAST AREA TO ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.                                     
FROPA IS PROGGED TO OCCUR SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN EVENTUAL                
TRANSITION FROM RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO MIXED PRECIP/SNOW.  SOME PRECIP            
MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES.  AIR BEHIND              
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD...SO WILL PORTRAY TEMPS NEAR THE                 
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.                                              
LATEST 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A NW TREND WITH THE SURFACE            
LOW...AND MUCH WARMER 850MB TEMPS WORKING INTO NE WISCONSIN.  AS                
MENTIONED EARLIER...PLENTY OF CHANGES IN THE TRACK/TIMING OVER THE              
NEXT FEW DAYS.  TRIED MY BEST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...AND NOT STRAY             
TOO FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CIGS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT SLOW TO COME DOWN. BUT WITH                 
CONTD WAA...EVEN THOUGH WEAK MUCH OF THE TIME...WOULD EXPECT SOLID              
LOWER CLOUD DECK TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA.                
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON                               
WIZ020-030-031-035>037-045-                                                     
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING                                 
WIZ022-038>040-048>050-073-074-                                                 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON                
WIZ022-038>040-048>050-                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SKOWRONSKI/MPC                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
257 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...STG JET FLOWING ARND NERN PAC RIDGE WAS SPLITTING                   
OVER NOAM...WITH NRN BRANCH FLOWING ARND DEEP VORTEX OVER HUDSON                
BAY...AND SRN BRANCH MAINTAINING DEEP TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE              
TREND DURING THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR ENERGY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO               
THE SRN STREAM...THEN FOR THE FLOW ACRS NOAM TO DEAMPLIFY. BY THE               
MIDDLE OF NEXT WK...LOOKS LIKE WE WL HAVE A VERY FAST WLY JET                   
FLOWING ACRS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...THROUGH WHAT WL BE BASE                
OF VERY LARGE BROAD TROF.                                                       
PATTERN WL REMAIN EXTREMELY ACTIVE AS LONG AS AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM              
REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD BE FOR THE REST OF THE WK AND INTO              
THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE CHGS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT                
QUIETER WX REGIME NEXT WK...BUT WITH STG BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSE TO               
THE AREA HAVE TO WONDER IF SOME SMALLER SCALE SYSTEMS THAT AREN/T               
REALLY FULLY RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT WL END UP COMING INTO PLAY.                  
PCPN AMNTS FOR THE NEXT WK SHOULD END UP ABV NORMAL. WOULD EXPECT               
TEMPS TO TEND TO AOB NORMAL LEVELS AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/WED. ALL KINDS OF ISSUES TO SORT OUT WITH                
THE FCST. SERIES OF SHRTWVS EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL LEAD                
TO SEVERAL SLUGS OF PCPN THE NEXT 36 HRS. FIRST SLUG NOW LIFTG                  
INTO THE RGN...BEING SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE AND ISENT LIFT AT                 
NOSE OF DECENT LLJ. GULF MOISTURE STILL WAY S...AND LOW-LEVEL                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS THE AREA NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE. BUT ENOUGH                   
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING BAND OF SNOW NWD ACRS THE AREA THIS                  
MORNING. THINK THAT WL BE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL. THEN EXPECT              
A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATER THIS MORNING. THAT/S ABOUT AS FAR AS WE               
GET BEFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST TAKES A REAL NOSE-DIVE. OVERALL...            
MODELS SUGGEST PCPN WL INCR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/2 OF THE FCST                 
AREA AGAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW                
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER               
BACK TO THE NW. THEN SOME MODELS...MAINLY THE RUC AND HIGHER                    
RESOLUTION MESO-MODELS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...INDICATE PCPN OVER                
THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA COULD JUST KEEP GOING UNTIL FINAL                
SHRTWV AND DEEPENING SFC SYSTEM RACE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW                
AFTN. THEN AGAIN...SOME OF THE MODELS DON/T GENERATE MUCH IN THE                
WAY OF PCPN AT ALL WITH SYSTEM TOMORROW. NEW GFS AND UKMET PRETTY               
IMPRESSIVE WITH QG FORCING OVER E-C WI. ECMWF HAS SYSTEM...BUT HAS              
BACKED AWAY SOMDWHAT FM IT/S EARLIER FCSTS. WAS REALLY HOPING TO                
GET MORE OF A CONSENSUS ON THE SYSTEM NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN 48                 
HRS OF THE EVENT. MY FEELING RIGHT NOW IS THAT IT WL BE AN ADVISORY-            
TYPE EVENT. BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT...PLUS I DON/T HAVE A                 
REAL GOOD COURSE OF ACTION IF I PULL THE WATCH. I WOULDN/T WANT TO              
JUST DROP IT...SINCE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY SNOW. DON/T WANT              
TO HAVE A SECOND ADVISORY STARTING LESS THAN 12 HOURS AFTER FIRST               
EXPIRES...AND DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SIG PRECIP JUST                   
CONTINUING TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY THOUGH TOMORROW. SO...WE/LL               
JUST KEEP THE WATCH. WITH PLENTY OF TRAVEL OCCURRING TOMORROW...IT              
WON/T BE A BAD THINK TO KEEP THE POTENTAIL FOR MORE SNOW TOMORROW               
FRONT AND CENTER...EVEN THOUGH I SHADED BACK ON AMNTS AND NOW AM A              
LITTLE BLO WARNING CRITERIA.                                                    
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT               
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT FRIDAY                      
ONWARD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM              
TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES.  NO ONE MODEL STANDS OUT AT THIS                     
PARTICULAR TIME...SO INCORPORATED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF                  
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TREND TOWARD MORE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.  IN               
THE END...GENERAL NEG PNA PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WILL SEE MORE            
OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP BY END OF THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL RAPIDLY        
MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC DURING THE EVENING.  NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW               
WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY THE START OF THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...OP                 
MODELS POINT TOWARDS LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN THE BACK EDGE OF            
THE COMMA HEAD STILL AFFECTING THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.  AS A             
RESULT...STILL TOO EARLY TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR             
FLURRIES FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND PERHAPS OVER               
VILAS AS WELL BEFORE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE WEST.  SKIES WILL                 
CLEAR HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW LEVEL               
RIDGE AXIS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY              
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES             
ESTABLISHED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING POORLY AS OF LATE                   
CAPTURING THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES.  HAVE BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A             
FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY...FIGURING VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS ON AREA              
SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.                                 
REST OF THE FORECAST...LARGELY DEPENDANT UPON TRACK OF THE SURFACE              
LOW...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARM AIR REACHES OUR NECK OF THE            
WOODS.  A SHORTWAVE STILL WAY OUT IN THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIVE SE INTO            
THE MEAN WESTERN NOAM TROUGH AND THEN EJECT NE TOWARDS THE GREAT                
LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY JUST STARTING TO             
GET REASONABLY SAMPLED BY THE ALASKAN UPPER AIR NETWORK THIS                    
EVENING.  REGARDLESS...00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT            
TRACKING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH               
PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...12Z GFS ENSEMBLE             
MEMBERS TAKE THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER SOUTHERN LAKE                    
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SO STILL QUITE A BIT OF                 
SPREAD AMONGST THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO             
THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF.                                                
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL PUSH A              
POCKET OF MODERATE 700-500MB -DIVQ AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM SW TO             
NE THURSDAY NIGHT.  DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH MIXING                 
RATIOS APPROACH 3 G/KG WILL SURGE NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SATURATION            
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  MODEL QPFS SUGGEST               
THIS WILL LEAD TO A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL AT BEST WITH THE HIGHEST                  
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH.                                                         
LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON FRIDAY WITH INDICATIONS OF MID-LEVEL                  
MOISTURE STRIPPING OUT WHILE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES DOWN             
LOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  EVEN THE GFS            
ENSEMBLE SHOWS 30-40KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY BOOST 850MB              
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C.  THE QUESTION IS HOW WELL WILL                  
SURFACE TEMPS RESPOND GIVEN SNOWPACK ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL             
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI?  00Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SEVERAL               
HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY AS AN ABOVE 0C WARM              
LAYER DEVELOPS ALOFT BEFORE BL TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TYPE TO             
BE ALL LIQUID.  TOUGH TO GET CUTE WITH PRECIP TYPE THIS FAR OUT                 
GIVEN CHANGES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK/TIMING ARE EXPECTED.  SO WILL GO             
WITH A MIXED BAG FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING THE SE            
FORECAST AREA TO ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.                                     
FROPA IS PROGGED TO OCCUR SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN EVENTUAL                
TRANSITION FROM RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO MIXED PRECIP/SNOW.  SOME PRECIP            
MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES.  AIR BEHIND              
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD...SO WILL PORTRAY TEMPS NEAR THE                 
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.                                              
LATEST 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A NW TREND WITH THE SURFACE            
LOW...AND MUCH WARMER 850MB TEMPS WORKING INTO NE WISCONSIN.  AS                
MENTIONED EARLIER...PLENTY OF CHANGES IN THE TRACK/TIMING OVER THE              
NEXT FEW DAYS.  TRIED MY BEST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...AND NOT STRAY             
TOO FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CIGS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT SLOW TO COME DOWN. BUT WITH                 
CONTD WAA...EVEN THOUGH WEAK MUCH OF THE TIME...WOULD EXPECT SOLID              
LOWER CLOUD DECK TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA.                
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON                               
WIZ020-030-031-035>037-045-                                                     
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING                                 
WIZ022-038>040-048>050-073-074-                                                 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON                
WIZ022-038>040-048>050-                                                         
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ020-               
030-031-035>037-045.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SKOWRONSKI/MPC                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
947 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TO CURRENT SITUATION                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FREEZING LINE NOW NEAR DYERSBURG AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE                      
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ARE RISING ABOUT 1 DEGREE PER HOUR. WILL KEEP                 
THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AND CANCEL AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE                 
FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND RUC 2M                        
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                       
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR TO                     
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWFA. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN                 
MORE CORRECT SINCE 12Z YESTERDAY DEPICTING THE MINOR MORNING                    
PRECIP EVENT 09-15Z...DESPITE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. RADAR                     
CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLD/SCT VERY LIGHT FZRA/IP SHOWERS MOVING ENE               
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS DUE TO                
THE INSTANT FREEZING OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON TO ROAD                      
SURFACES.                                                                       
NEW 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FLARE UP OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS              
THE FA BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM. AT 14Z...THE FREEZING LINE WAS AS                 
CLOSE AS KDYR...BUT THEN HEADED SW OF KJBR IN NE ARKANSAS. THE 12Z              
NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 32F TEMPS WHERE THE                
ORIGINAL ADVISORY WAS IN PLACE...FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SW                 
INDIANA. THE RUC 2M TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY COLDER THAN THE NAM AND MAY              
BE MORE CORRECT. MEANWHILE...ACROSS SW INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE                
OF WRN KY THE 12Z NAM TEMPS RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WILL                
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE STILL                    
BELIEVE THAT WE SHOULD TRANSITION TO ABOVE FREEZING CONDITIONS                  
AROUND 00Z/ISH.                                                                 
AVIATION... / ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008 /                            
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL HOLD EARLY TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL                      
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY AHEAD OF AN                    
APPROACHING FRONT. VFR CIGS DURING THE AM HOURS WL LOWER TO MVFR                
(PREVAILING) DURING THE PM HOURS...WITH IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED AFTER              
00Z WED. PRECIP THIS AM WILL BE SLEET/FZRA...TRANSITIONING TO ALL               
FZRA. AFTER 18Z PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO LIQUID AS SURFACE TEMPS               
RISE TO 32F OR BETTER. THE MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE PCPN AND               
AT TIMES BETTER INTENSITIES DURING THE LATE PM-EVENING HOURS MAY                
CAUSE VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE OFF AND                
ON THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD                 
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BALLARD-          
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-                   
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-                   
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-                  
     WEBSTER.                                                                   
MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW                     
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.                            
IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-               
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION                
     IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.                                       
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GIBSON-           
     PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PS/MY                                                                           
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
900 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR TO                     
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWFA. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN                 
MORE CORRECT SINCE 12Z YESTERDAY DEPICTING THE MINOR MORNING                    
PRECIP EVENT 09-15Z...DESPITE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. RADAR                     
CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLD/SCT VERY LIGHT FZRA/IP SHOWERS MOVING ENE               
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS DUE TO                
THE INSTANT FREEZING OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON TO ROAD                      
SURFACES.                                                                       
NEW 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FLARE UP OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS              
THE FA BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM. AT 14Z...THE FREEZING LINE WAS AS                 
CLOSE AS KDYR...BUT THEN HEADED SW OF KJBR IN NE ARKANSAS. THE 12Z              
NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 32F TEMPS WHERE THE                
ORIGINAL ADVISORY WAS IN PLACE...FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SW                 
INDIANA. THE RUC 2M TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY COLDER THAN THE NAM AND MAY              
BE MORE CORRECT. MEANWHILE...ACROSS SW INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE                
OF WRN KY THE 12Z NAM TEMPS RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WILL                
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE STILL                    
BELIEVE THAT WE SHOULD TRANSITION TO ABOVE FREEZING CONDITIONS                  
AROUND 00Z/ISH.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... / ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008 /                           
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL HOLD EARLY TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL                      
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY AHEAD OF AN                    
APPROACHING FRONT. VFR CIGS DURING THE AM HOURS WL LOWER TO MVFR                
(PREVAILING) DURING THE PM HOURS...WITH IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED AFTER              
00Z WED. PRECIP THIS AM WILL BE SLEET/FZRA...TRANSITIONING TO ALL               
FZRA. AFTER 18Z PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO LIQUID AS SURFACE TEMPS               
RISE TO 32F OR BETTER. THE MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE PCPN AND               
AT TIMES BETTER INTENSITIES DURING THE LATE PM-EVENING HOURS MAY                
CAUSE VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE OFF AND                
ON THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD                 
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BALLARD-          
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-                   
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-                   
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-                  
     WEBSTER.                                                                   
MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW                     
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.                            
IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-               
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION                
     IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.                                       
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GIBSON-           
     PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
650 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 407 AM)...                                                 
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY              
LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE              
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL                 
MOISTURE IS STREAMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES IN THE SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE.             
WITHIN THE FLOW...MAIN SHRTWVS OF NOTE ARE OVER SW MN...NE AZ AND               
OVER NW CA. UNDERNEATH THE FLOW...850MB WINDS FROM PROFILERS OVER               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN SPEED OUT OF THE               
SOUTH AND SW...NOW 60-70KT. THESE WINDS ARE HELPING TO BRING                    
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THIS HAS BEEN                
TAKING A WHILE BECAUSE OF SO MUCH DRY AIR INITIALLY TO OVERCOME.                
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE TEENS F IN OKLAHOMA. NONETHELESS...             
THE MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENOUGH SUCH THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE                   
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DPVA FROM THE SW              
MN SHRTWV...LIGHT SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT OVER NRN IA INTO SRN                      
MN/CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL/SRN WI. TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS APPEAR TO              
BE BTWN 1-2 INCHES. SNOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...BEING IMPACTED BY             
DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF               
15C OR GREATER FROM 950MB UP TO 500MB. THIS DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED               
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSING LOWER MI AND INTO THE                   
MID-ATLANTIC NOW. SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH HAVE ALLOWED            
ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES              
DROPPED DOWN BELOW ZERO LAST EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES             
AND THE DRY AIR. HOWEVER...NOW WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND CLOUDS                 
INCREASING... TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO SLOWLY RISE. OFF TO THE              
WEST... DOWNSLOPING MID-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES HAS RESULTED IN              
997MB LOW PRESSURE IN NE COLORADO.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 407 AM)...                                               
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER SW MN IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS UPPER MI THIS               
MORNING. NEXT SHRTWV CURRENTLY IN NE AZ IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH SE            
MN BY 00Z. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF DPVA WILL OCCUR BTWN 12 AND 16Z              
AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF DPVA SHOULD HELP             
BRING THE SNOW TO OUR SW INTO THE CWA...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODEL LIQUID PCPN VALUES OF                  
0.05-0.10 OF AN INCH SEEM REASONABLE WITH THIS ROUND OF FORCING...              
GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST               
MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...RESULTING IN A             
SNOW TO WATER RATIO PROBABLY AROUND 20 TO 1...SO BASICALLY THE                  
PERIOD BTWN 12-18Z SHOULD SEE ABOUT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS MATCHES            
UP WELL WITH OBSERVED VALUES TO OUR SW AS WELL. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY              
LIGHTEN UP EARLY IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV...BUT                    
CONTINUOUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN ON THE 285-300K SFCS WILL LIKELY                
KEEP SOME GOING. IN FACT...LATER IN THE AFTN SNOW SHOULD INCREASE               
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHRTWV COMING INTO SE MN...ALONG                
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120-130KT              
JET STREAK LIFTING INTO SE WI. THEREFORE ANOTHER 0.05-0.10 OF AN                
INCH OF PCPN IS LIKELY...OR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE FORCING AGAIN              
IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS LAKE                 
EFFECT BANDING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTN WHEN THE               
LOW LEVELS GET SATURATED ENOUGH TO HELP THE LAKE PRODUCE THE BAND.              
AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD ON THE POSITION OF THE BAND...RANGING FROM ERN            
DELTA IN THE NAM TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY IN THE REGIONAL                      
CANADIAN/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN. GFS IS SPLIT BTWN THE TWO...BUT ACTUALLY            
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE. IT SUGGEST THE BAND FIRST IMPACTS THE                
GARDEN PENINSULA AREA WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN HEADS EAST             
ACROSS LUCE AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AS WINDS VEER SW. THIS LAKE                  
ENHANCEMENT SHOULD HELP ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO...SO A SOLID              
ADVISORY EVENT IS LIKELY. DECIDED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO DELTA             
COUNTY IN CASE THE NAM SHOULD PAN OUT...AND THAT THE GENERAL                    
SYNOPTIC SNOW IS CLOSE TO ADVISORY ANYWAY. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE                
WARMER THAN PAST DAYS...RISING INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS SHOWN BY                  
MODELS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS...DUE TO NEW TROUGHING DROPPING              
DOWN OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A STRONG SHRTWV MOVING INTO CA               
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST...IT CARRIES THE               
COLORADO LOW EASTWARD TO THE ST LOUIS MO AREA BY 12Z WED. OVER UPPER            
MI...A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN.               
THIS TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK THAT ACTIVE...PRIMARILY DUE TO A LOSS OF              
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANY DPVA (SHRTWV OVER SE MN ENDS UP CROSSING                
UPPER MI IN THE EVENING). STILL...A FEW FLURRIES OR -SN SEEM                    
POSSIBLE...AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY               
LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD MOVE INTO MACKINAC COUNTY BY               
MIDNIGHT...SO GOING ADVISORY END TIME LOOKS REASONABLE. DESPITE LACK            
OF PCPN...SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...PRIMARILY LOW AND HIGH            
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP...EVEN WITH WINDS               
DIMINISHING FROM THE BREEZY STATE DURING THE DAY. WENT WITH A BLEND             
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                                                      
WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM OF FOCUS WILL BE ON THE LOW IN ST LOUIS MO AT             
12Z WED...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV IN WRN MO (CURRENTLY THE              
ONE IN NW CALIFORNIA). MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING             
THE SHRTWV NE THROUGH NRN IL AND INTO LAKE HURON BY 00Z THU...                  
PHASING WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER              
THE YELLOWSTONE NATL PARK AREA. THE NET RESULT IS TO DEEPEN THE SFC             
LOW AS IT HEADS UP INTO CENTRAL LAKE HURON LATE WED. THE NAM IS BY              
FAR THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS NOT TO                    
DIFFERENT (AROUND 1000MB). THE GFS AND UKMET ARE THE DEEPEST WITH               
PRESSURES AROUND 990MB. DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH OUR                
LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN WHICH AS A PRESSURE AROUND 997MB...BUT A DEEPER               
SOLUTION IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE GIVEN PHASING PRESENCE. EITHER                  
WAY...MAJORITY OF DEFORMATION PCPN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW IS              
LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH OR JUST CLIP THE LAKE MI COUNTIES AND               
LUCE COUNTY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. NORTHERLY FLOW                 
INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -13C              
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.             
COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION FROM THE LAKE EFFECT...SINCE            
IT APPEARS MOST OF THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC                 
GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THE COOLING 850MB TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR                 
AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PROBABLY FALL. HAVE AGAIN FOLLOWED A              
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.                                                    
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SHRTWV AND SFC LOW OVER LAKE            
HURON LOOK TO RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE NE...WITH MODELS INDICATING               
THEM REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z THU. BEHIND THEM...A                
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UPPER MI BY 12Z. COLD                    
ADVECTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW SHOULD CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT...BUT FLOW TURNING ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE                 
RIDGE MOVING IN...ALONG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF            
THE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT AND THE BANDS MOVING. STILL MAINTAINED HIGH               
POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND EAST GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LAKE                  
EFFECT OCCURRING. INLAND AREAS COULD GET QUITE CHILLY AFTER MIDNIGHT            
AS WINDS DROP OFF AND SKIES CLEAR. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF            
GOING BELOW GUIDANCE...TO AS LOW AS 8 BELOW NEAR THE WI BORDER.                 
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                  
BUILDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRYING AND                   
SUBSIDENCE. IN FACT...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOME                  
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO -5             
TO -9C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 20S. DID NOT            
WANT TO GO TOO MUCH HIGHER GIVEN THE COLD START OFF.                            
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE               
WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z FRI...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WYOMING.              
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL IN              
GENERAL OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE              
OUT AT LEAST INTO THE PLAINS...OR PERHAPS NE TOWARDS THE UPPER                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE CASE OF THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN. IN ANY                  
EVENT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHRTWV LIFTING THROUGH THE SW FLOW                
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING GULF                    
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...SIMILAR TO THAT OF             
TODAY. THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING IT            
INTO UPPER MI THU NIGHT AND EXITING SOMETIME FRI MORNING. CONTINUED             
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INDICATED FRI AFTERNOON AS A PLUME OF ABOVE 0C               
850MB TEMPS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI. THIS MEANS CONTINUED PCPN             
IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND                 
RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR STRAIGHT RAIN WOULD BE ALONG LAKE MI.                     
REGARDING TEMPS...LOWS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE EVENING AS                      
INCREASING WINDS AND PCPN CAUSE READINGS TO RISE. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB            
UP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ON FRI...SOMETHING NOT SEEN IN UPPER              
MI SINCE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THE 15TH OF THIS MONTH.                     
BEYOND FRI...SOME CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE FRI NIGHT/SAT TIME                  
PERIOD. ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN OVERALL CONTINUE TO MOVE MORE AND              
MORE NW WITH THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE                 
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TAKING THE LEAD ROLE IN THE TREND WITH THE OTHER              
RUNS CATCHING UP TO IT. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS THAT FRI                
NIGHT COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT IT            
HAS BEEN...WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH            
THE NIGHT. DID NOT GO COMPLETELY THAT WAY YET...BUT TRENDED IN THAT             
DIRECTION. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT...SO            
RAISED HIGHS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI.                 
FUTURE REFINEMENT TO THE FRI NIGHT/SAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE NEEDED               
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW             
BECOMES CLEARER.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET ON PRECIPITATION...OR AT LEAST ADDED A               
MID STEP BETWEEN THE CURRENT VFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.  HIGH CLOUDS               
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ON SOUTHERLY                 
WINDS...WITH A THICK WALL OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN                   
WISCONSIN. LLJ WILL COME INTO PLAY NEAR 18Z...WITH 30 TO 40 KT WINDS            
AROUND 2KFT TO 3KFT...STRONGEST AT SAW AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING                     
DIRECTION CLOSER TO THE SFC.  BOTH SITES WILL IMPROVE CEIG/VIS WISE             
AFTER 05Z AT SAW.  CMX BECOMES A LITTLE TRICKIER...AS NW WINDS                  
ATTEMPT TO BRING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AROUND OR                
AFTER 11Z WEDNESDAY.  THIS MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TO EARLY...AND              
WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED AT THE TIME NEARS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...WITH A FEW GALE            
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER EASTERN LAKE                     
SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL                
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN                
WISCONSIN TO MISSOURI WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD THEN MOVE TO                
LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE LOWER OHIO             
VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE            
TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE               
DAY THURSDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE                
NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE                  
DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO CAN BE EXPECTED MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST               
     TONIGHT FOR MIZ007-014-085.                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS              
     EVENING FOR MIZ013.                                                        
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
531 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND MID LEVEL WAVE OVER             
EASTERN SD HAS MOVED MAINLY TO THE NE OF KMSP...AND KRWF BUT STILL              
AFFECTING THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND OCNL                
LIFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON IN THE SNOW AREAS. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL               
MOVE EAST AND NORTH OF THE OTHER TAF STIES BEFORE 18Z. THIS WILL                
LEAVE OCNL FLURRIES OR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW THE REST OF THE DAY                  
WITH WEAKER WARM AVECTION. ASSOCIATED CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR BUT              
COULD BE A SCT015-020 CONDITION AND LOW VFR FOR A TIME. SURFACE                 
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.              
STILL GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IN WEAK GRADIENT PRESSURE PATTERN                
BUT COULD BE SOME BREAKS WITH INCREAISNG RIDGING TOWARD END OF                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 316 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008/                          
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY              
THIS MORNING...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RUC-PROGGED ISENTROPIC                
LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280K-                 
290K SURFACES. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING                
TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN/WI THIS MORNING...AS THE PV ANOMALY NOSES INTO       
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN. ESTIMATE TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH               
RANGE HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LAPS               
SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES. ESTIMATE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE                 
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING /MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL                
WI/...WHERE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 G/KG. THE              
ADVISORY APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE                     
CORRELATION OF THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING AROUND               
THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE IN THE 15               
TO 25 KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED               
TO LINGER THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT                  
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS THE INVERTED TROUGH NOSES              
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE                
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES              
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO              
THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW                       
NORMAL. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE                    
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE              
NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE CWA THE OPPORTUNITY TO                  
WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE                    
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COME WITH A PRICE...AS LOW LEVEL                       
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A               
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A POTENTIAL FOR            
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED              
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FROM 12Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...WITH               
DECENT AGREEMENT/CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL                      
SOLUTIONS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-           
     BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-                    
     ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-RAMSEY-RICE-                   
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.                           
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLUE               
     EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI                   
     PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-                 
     SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.                
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BARRON-          
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/JPR                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
425 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARMER AND WETTER. AS             
THE CENTER OF THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA            
TODAY A DECENT WARM UP AND MOISTENING IS EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR                  
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION                 
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN                 
CONUS. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL HELP THE ASSOCIATED LEE SIDE               
SURFACE LOW MOVER TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE                         
STRENGTHENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING CENTER OF             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR CWFA            
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT HAVE HELPED ALL SITES WARM ABOVE                 
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE HARD FREEZE WARNING            
THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. AS THE ATMOSPHERE            
WARMS AND MOISTENS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS                
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A FEW               
RETURNS BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR.             
THE 00Z TUE JAN SOUNDING AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME             
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING THAT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH                
LIGHT SLEET IN THE WEST BEFORE WARMING ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.                     
CONSIDERING THE WARMING TEMPERATURES SURFACE AND ALOFT NO                       
ACCUMULATIONS NOR FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.                    
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MEET LOCAL LAKE WIND               
CRITERIA OVER ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEAST MOST COUNTIES. WL HOIST THE LAKE            
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE                  
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN OUR             
WARM UP TONIGHT. MODELS LIKELY WARM AND MOISTEN OUR AREA A LITTLE               
TOO FAST BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE STILL RUNNING IN               
THE TEENS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY               
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED                     
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST.              
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THE                        
STRENGTHENING SHEAR MAY LEND TO AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. WL                   
CONTINUE MENTION OF STRONG STORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. MODELS AGREE             
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN LIFTING RAPIDLY TO             
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO DROP            
INTO OUR CWFA WEDNESDAY AND STALL. THE GFS NOW STALLS THIS FRONT A              
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN LAST NIGHT`S RUN...ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84               
CORRIDOR. GREATEST POPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE CARRIED TUESDAY               
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY                  
EVENING. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO            
THE COAST CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THE FLOW WILL QUICKLY SWING AROUND                
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY            
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THE                
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...PUSHING NORTH               
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE                   
CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH               
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.                                                    
ANOTHER DEEPENING U/L TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ARKLAMISS ON FRIDAY              
AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH              
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE EURO/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WITH                
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE EURO WILL GO WITH              
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE               
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AS APPOSED TO OPERATIONAL WHICH PUSHES                    
EVERYTHING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE               
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WITH              
THIS SYSTEM AND THE SLOWER SOLUTION MAY ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE                     
INSTABILITY SINCE IT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH AT MAX HEATING. WILL               
CONTINUE TO MENTION STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.                         
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY             
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.                                            
MADE SOME CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE                  
WEEKEND WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE EURO. CUT POPS FRIDAY                   
NIGHT...BUT RAISED POPS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND ALSO SATURDAY            
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATE ON SATURDAY              
SO ALSO BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE./15/                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MOST             
CEILINGS BEING REPORTED AROUND 6KFT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER              
TO BELOW 3000FT TODAY FROM THE WEST AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE                 
APPROACHES AND RAIN SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA. ALL SITES ABOVE                 
FREEZING THIS MORNING SO FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED                    
ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN MAY STILL MIX WITH LIGHT SLEET MAINLY IN THE                
NORTHWEST BEFORE 16Z. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 18Z. ISOLATED                     
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING. IN ADDITION... SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME            
GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT. /22/                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       60  59  72  48 /  44  69  88  79                                  
MERIDIAN      57  56  73  47 /  21  52  72  90                                  
VICKSBURG     61  60  72  46 /  62  76  91  63                                  
HATTIESBURG   62  61  76  56 /  18  43  50  79                                  
NATCHEZ       65  64  74  50 /  60  66  90  64                                  
GREENVILLE    57  56  69  40 /  73  88  91  46                                  
GREENWOOD     58  57  66  42 /  64  86  91  54                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY           
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>062.                                                    
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY           
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.                                            
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY           
     FOR ARZ074-075.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: 15                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
704 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SNOW PILING UP PRETTY FAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE FIRST WAVE               
OF PCPN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NE THIS AFTN. BUT FAST START HAS                  
SOME IMPLICATIONS. FIRST...NEED TO POST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH                  
SINCE A QUICK 3 INCHES OR SO LIKELY THERE THIS MORNING...AND SOME               
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO NEED TO UP TOTALS FOR              
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BACK TO 3 TO 5 INCHES. WILL KEEP THE EAST AT                
3-5 INCHES SINCE NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON GETTING SIG REDEVELOPMENT                  
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT ASAP.                                           
SKOWRONSKI                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008...                      
SYNOPSIS...STG JET FLOWING ARND NERN PAC RIDGE WAS SPLITTING                    
OVER NOAM...WITH NRN BRANCH FLOWING ARND DEEP VORTEX OVER HUDSON                
BAY...AND SRN BRANCH MAINTAINING DEEP TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE              
TREND DURING THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR ENERGY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO               
THE SRN STREAM...THEN FOR THE FLOW ACRS NOAM TO DEAMPLIFY. BY THE               
MIDDLE OF NEXT WK...LOOKS LIKE WE WL HAVE A VERY FAST WLY JET                   
FLOWING ACRS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...THROUGH WHAT WL BE BASE                
OF VERY LARGE BROAD TROF.                                                       
PATTERN WL REMAIN EXTREMELY ACTIVE AS LONG AS AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM              
REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD BE FOR THE REST OF THE WK AND INTO              
THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE CHGS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT                
QUIETER WX REGIME NEXT WK...BUT WITH STG BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSE TO               
THE AREA HAVE TO WONDER IF SOME SMALLER SCALE SYSTEMS THAT AREN/T               
REALLY FULLY RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT WL END UP COMING INTO PLAY.                  
PCPN AMNTS FOR THE NEXT WK SHOULD END UP ABV NORMAL. WOULD EXPECT               
TEMPS TO TEND TO AOB NORMAL LEVELS AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.                   
SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/WED. ALL KINDS OF ISSUES TO SORT OUT WITH                 
THE FCST. SERIES OF SHRTWVS EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL LEAD                
TO SEVERAL SLUGS OF PCPN THE NEXT 36 HRS. FIRST SLUG NOW LIFTG                  
INTO THE RGN...BEING SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE AND ISENT LIFT AT                 
NOSE OF DECENT LLJ. GULF MOISTURE STILL WAY S...AND LOW-LEVEL                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS THE AREA NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE. BUT ENOUGH                   
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING BAND OF SNOW NWD ACRS THE AREA THIS                  
MORNING. THINK THAT WL BE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL. THEN EXPECT              
A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATER THIS MORNING. THAT/S ABOUT AS FAR AS WE               
GET BEFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST TAKES A REAL NOSE-DIVE. OVERALL...            
MODELS SUGGEST PCPN WL INCR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/2 OF THE FCST                 
AREA AGAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW                
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER               
BACK TO THE NW. THEN SOME MODELS...MAINLY THE RUC AND HIGHER                    
RESOLUTION MESO-MODELS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...INDICATE PCPN OVER                
THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA COULD JUST KEEP GOING UNTIL FINAL                
SHRTWV AND DEEPENING SFC SYSTEM RACE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW                
AFTN. THEN AGAIN...SOME OF THE MODELS DON/T GENERATE MUCH IN THE                
WAY OF PCPN AT ALL WITH SYSTEM TOMORROW. NEW GFS AND UKMET PRETTY               
IMPRESSIVE WITH QG FORCING OVER E-C WI. ECMWF HAS SYSTEM...BUT HAS              
BACKED AWAY SOMDWHAT FM IT/S EARLIER FCSTS. WAS REALLY HOPING TO                
GET MORE OF A CONSENSUS ON THE SYSTEM NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN 48                 
HRS OF THE EVENT. MY FEELING RIGHT NOW IS THAT IT WL BE AN ADVISORY-            
TYPE EVENT. BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT...PLUS I DON/T HAVE A                 
REAL GOOD COURSE OF ACTION IF I PULL THE WATCH. I WOULDN/T WANT TO              
JUST DROP IT...SINCE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY SNOW. DON/T WANT              
TO HAVE A SECOND ADVISORY STARTING LESS THAN 12 HOURS AFTER FIRST               
EXPIRES...AND DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SIG PRECIP JUST                   
CONTINUING TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY THOUGH TOMORROW. SO...WE/LL               
JUST KEEP THE WATCH. WITH PLENTY OF TRAVEL OCCURRING TOMORROW...IT              
WON/T BE A BAD THINK TO KEEP THE POTENTAIL FOR MORE SNOW TOMORROW               
FRONT AND CENTER...EVEN THOUGH I SHADED BACK ON AMNTS AND NOW AM A              
LITTLE BLO WARNING CRITERIA.                                                    
LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT                
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT FRIDAY                      
ONWARD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM              
TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES.  NO ONE MODEL STANDS OUT AT THIS                     
PARTICULAR TIME...SO INCORPORATED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF                  
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TREND TOWARD MORE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.  IN               
THE END...GENERAL NEG PNA PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WILL SEE MORE            
OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP BY END OF THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL RAPIDLY        
MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC DURING THE EVENING.  NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW               
WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY THE START OF THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...OP                 
MODELS POINT TOWARDS LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN THE BACK EDGE OF            
THE COMMA HEAD STILL AFFECTING THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.  AS A             
RESULT...STILL TOO EARLY TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR             
FLURRIES FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND PERHAPS OVER               
VILAS AS WELL BEFORE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE WEST.  SKIES WILL                 
CLEAR HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW LEVEL               
RIDGE AXIS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY              
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES             
ESTABLISHED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING POORLY AS OF LATE                   
CAPTURING THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES.  HAVE BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A             
FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY...FIGURING VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS ON AREA              
SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.                                 
REST OF THE FORECAST...LARGELY DEPENDANT UPON TRACK OF THE SURFACE              
LOW...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARM AIR REACHES OUR NECK OF THE            
WOODS.  A SHORTWAVE STILL WAY OUT IN THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIVE SE INTO            
THE MEAN WESTERN NOAM TROUGH AND THEN EJECT NE TOWARDS THE GREAT                
LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY JUST STARTING TO             
GET REASONABLY SAMPLED BY THE ALASKAN UPPER AIR NETWORK THIS                    
EVENING.  REGARDLESS...00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT            
TRACKING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH               
PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...12Z GFS ENSEMBLE             
MEMBERS TAKE THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER SOUTHERN LAKE                    
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SO STILL QUITE A BIT OF                 
SPREAD AMONGST THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO             
THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF.                                                
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL PUSH A              
POCKET OF MODERATE 700-500MB -DIVQ AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM SW TO             
NE THURSDAY NIGHT.  DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH MIXING                 
RATIOS APPROACH 3 G/KG WILL SURGE NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SATURATION            
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  MODEL QPFS SUGGEST               
THIS WILL LEAD TO A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL AT BEST WITH THE HIGHEST                  
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH.                                                         
LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON FRIDAY WITH INDICATIONS OF MID-LEVEL                  
MOISTURE STRIPPING OUT WHILE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES DOWN             
LOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  EVEN THE GFS            
ENSEMBLE SHOWS 30-40KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY BOOST 850MB              
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C.  THE QUESTION IS HOW WELL WILL                  
SURFACE TEMPS RESPOND GIVEN SNOWPACK ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL             
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI?  00Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SEVERAL               
HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY AS AN ABOVE 0C WARM              
LAYER DEVELOPS ALOFT BEFORE BL TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TYPE TO             
BE ALL LIQUID.  TOUGH TO GET CUTE WITH PRECIP TYPE THIS FAR OUT                 
GIVEN CHANGES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK/TIMING ARE EXPECTED.  SO WILL GO             
WITH A MIXED BAG FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING THE SE            
FORECAST AREA TO ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.                                     
FROPA IS PROGGED TO OCCUR SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN EVENTUAL                
TRANSITION FROM RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO MIXED PRECIP/SNOW.  SOME PRECIP            
MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES.  AIR BEHIND              
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD...SO WILL PORTRAY TEMPS NEAR THE                 
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.                                              
LATEST 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A NW TREND WITH THE SURFACE            
LOW...AND MUCH WARMER 850MB TEMPS WORKING INTO NE WISCONSIN.  AS                
MENTIONED EARLIER...PLENTY OF CHANGES IN THE TRACK/TIMING OVER THE              
NEXT FEW DAYS.  TRIED MY BEST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...AND NOT STRAY             
TOO FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                             
AVIATION...CIGS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT SLOW TO COME DOWN. BUT WITH                  
CONTD WAA...EVEN THOUGH WEAK MUCH OF THE TIME...WOULD EXPECT SOLID              
LOWER CLOUD DECK TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA.                
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-                 
038>040-048>050-073-074.                                                        
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR WIZ022-038>040-048>050.                                                     
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ020-               
030-031-035>037-045.                                                            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-                
018-019-021.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
300 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 300 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                               
ONGOING STORM SYSTEM THE MAIN CONCERN...AND HOW TO HANDLE PRECIP                
TYPE AND WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. LATE WEEK SYSTEM CONTINUES TO                
LOOK WARM...WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND                        
SATURDAY.                                                                       
NAM AND GFS HAD A TOUGH TIME WITH PRECIP TYPE TODAY. RUC WAS QUITE              
CLOSE THIS MORNING. TRIED TO FOLLOW THE RUC SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHTS              
PRECIP TYPE...THEN LEAN TWRD THE GFS FOR THE REST OF THE INITIAL                
EVENT.                                                                          
FZRA DEVELOPED SOONER THAN EXPECTED...BUT SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR                
AND ENHANCED UVM MIGHT HAVE HELPED PUSH PRECIP BACK TO SLEET                    
AGAIN. THIS SAVED US FROM A MAJOR ICING EVENT. IF PRECIP HAD                    
REMAINED FZRA...WE WOULD HAVE NEEDED AN ICE STORM WARNING. AS                   
IS...WE WILL BE ALLOWING THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO CONTINUE THEIR                
COURSE. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES CAN BE TRIMMED AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE                
FREEZING FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.                                                
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.                                             
THE WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN STEADILY PROGRESSING NORTHWARD                      
TODAY...WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING A COATING OF ICE FROM FREEZING                
RAIN...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.2 INCHES. THE BAND OF SNOW TODAY                   
HAS DEVELOPED JUST NW OF OUR CWA. EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS OUT                  
MAIN SNOW ACCUMS NW OF THE IL RIVER. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW WILL AFFECT AREAS NW OF THE IL RIVER.              
RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE SMOOTHER APPEARANCE OF SNOW IN N MO HEADED                
FOR OUR NW CWA. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS TO HAVE ESTABLISHED A               
WHERE A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND MAY DEVELOP...AND IT WILL JUST CLIP                
OUR NW ZONES. THEREFORE...WE PULLED BACK SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE                   
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NW ZONES. EXPECT 2 TO 4                          
INCHES...INSTEAD OF 3 TO 5. WE ALREADY HAVE UP TO 1 INCH IN SPOTS               
IN THAT AREA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.                                         
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ICING FROM                   
FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR. SOUTH               
OF THERE...TEMPS ARE QUICKLY WARMING IN THE LAST HOUR. SOME CALLS               
FROM SPOTTERS IN THE SOUTH INDICATE TEMPS AT 32 AND THE RAIN IS                 
BEGINNING TO MELT THE ICE. SINCE DURING THE PROCESS OF                          
FREEZING...HEAT IS RELEASED TO THE AIR...THE SELF DEFEATING                     
PROCESS OF FREEZING IS BEGINNING TO WARM THE LOWER LEVELS ABOVE                 
WHERE FREEZING CAN CONTINUE WITHOUT AN INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR                   
CONTAINING WET BULBS BELOW FREEZING.                                            
WILL MAINTAIN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW            
MORNING IN THE NW ZONES. SOUTHERN AREAS N OF I-72 AND S OF I-55                 
ARE SCHED TO END AT 12Z...HOWEVER SOUTHERN EDGES OF THAT WILL BE                
ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE 12Z...POSSIBLY EVEN LATE THIS EVENING...SO                
WE WILL LET THE EVE SHIFT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS CONDITIONS                
DICTATE.                                                                        
WILL LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY END AT 6 PM S OF I-70...SINCE               
THEY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN.                                            
WED MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND                
BRING A WAVE OF SNOWS TO THE NW ZONES. WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2                 
INCHES OF SNOW NW OF THE IL RIVER...WITH RAIN OR SNOW BACK TO NEAR              
BMI TO LINCOLN/SPI...AND ALL RAIN SE OF THERE. BY WED                           
AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL SHUT DOWN PRECIP AS COLD AIR                   
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TURN ANY LINGERING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. THE                 
DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW BAND THAT PASSES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE              
CWA SHOULD ONLY DROP LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS...MAINLY FOR AREAS N OF                  
LINCOLN TO CMI.                                                                 
LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                      
CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WEATHER WISE...WITH SOME SUNSHINE                 
EXPECTED. THURSDAY NIGHT...A RETURN OF MOISTURE OVER A COLD                     
AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT ICING FROM FREEZING                   
RAIN...MAINLY N OF I-72. PRECIP AMOUNTS THURS NIGHT WILL BE VERY                
LIGHT...BUT ANY ICE THAT FORMS COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FRI              
MORNING.                                                                        
VERY WARM AIR IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL                  
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH UPPER 50S PSBL FOR LWV. HEAVY RAINS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND                      
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEVERE                    
WEATHER IS EVEN BEING MENTIONED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THAT         
TIME FRAME...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. ANOTHER AREA OF                   
CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES THAT             
COULD FALL DURING THAT TIME. SOME FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.                    
COLDER AIR WILL RETURN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIP               
TO SNOW...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP                   
WINDS DOWN DURING THE TRANSITION TO SNOW.                                       
WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS              
THROUGH TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME AS               
THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS NORTH OF ILLINOIS.                                       
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1152 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                              
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL                      
ILLINOIS TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THE TWO MOST                 
PERSISTENT WAVES WILL BE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN                  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. KPIA SHOULD STAY MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH SOME                   
SLEET IS POSSIBLE. KBMI WILL BE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN...SNOW IS                  
LIKELY WITH THE SECOND WAVE. KSPI/KDEC/KCMI WILL SEE MAINLY                     
FREEZING RAIN WITH THE FIRST WAVE...BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN                
THIS EVENING AS SURFACES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. KSPI/KDEC/KCMI WILL              
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH SECOND WAVE. MVFR CONDITIONS                 
WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR. THE               
IFR CONDITIONS...AT LEAST WITH CIGS...WILL LINGER THROUGH THE                   
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.                                                
BAK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ062-                
063-066>068-071>073.                                                            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ027>031-               
036>038-040>048.                                                                
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ049>057-                
061.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
332 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AT 21Z...MAIN SURFACE LOW WAS INDICATED BY MSAS OVER SE CO WITH                 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS KS INTO WESTERN IA THEN N                 
TO WEAKER LOW COMPLEX OVER WESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS                     
SW...WITH 12Z ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE HT FALLS AXIS AT H5 THROUGH              
H3 AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS FROM MT TO BAJA CA. ONE SHORTWAVE IN THE                
SW FLOW WAS LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PRODUCING                       
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MO AND                        
AR...WHILE THE MAIN STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY                   
PUNCHING E-NE ACROSS NM. IN THE LOCAL AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW              
WAS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA...WHILE IN THE FAR                           
SOUTH...SPOTTER REPORTS WERE INDICATING FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING               
DRIZZLE WELL SOUTH OF HWY 34. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE                 
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT IN TWO MAIN CHUNKS. THE INITIAL WILL BE                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN               
ANOTHER STRONGER PUSH LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS NM SHORTWAVE              
TRACKS OVERHEAD. VERY ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE        
EXTENDED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..                                           
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. SHORT              
TERM MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THERMAL PROFILES               
IN THE SOUTH...BUT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STARTING TO CATCHUP               
WITH A STILL TOO NARROW ABOVE ZERO C LAYER TO SUPPORT OBSERVED                  
FREEZING PRECIP. CONSIDERING THIS AND CURRENT TRENDS...MIXED PRECIP             
SHOULD LIFT ANOTHER COUPLE COUNTIES NORTH AS LOW LEVEL WAA                      
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION...IN FORM OF                
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA                  
SHOULD STAY IN FORM OF SNOW WITH BRIEF MIX OF SLEET POSSIBLE ALONG I-80.        
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AND UPPER JET               
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT EVENING SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE HALF              
OF THE CWFA. THE FOLLOWING ROUND TOWARD 12Z LOOKS TO FOCUS ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL CWFA...WITH STRONG QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE STRONG VORT              
MAX CONCENTRATING ALONG AND N OF I-80. HAVE FAVORED THE MORE                    
CONSISTENT GFS WITH ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL MO LATE                
TONIGHT TO SW LOWER MI MIDDAY WED.                                              
HAVE ALREADY UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING OVER NW               
IL AND FAR EAST CENTRAL IA...WHERE MAIN SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT                 
HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW TOTALS AND HAVE GONE                  
WITH 6 TO 8 AMOUNTS THERE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE IN WINTER              
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR COMBINATION OF MIXED PRECIP IN THE                       
SOUTH...SNOW AMOUNTS IN 3 TO 5 INCHES BUFFERING THE WARNING                     
AREA CENTRAL AND N...AND THEN MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NW.              
HOWEVER..EVEN WHERE SNOW TOTALS MARGINAL...STRENGTHENING W WINDS                
WED SHOULD RESULT IN MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER ENTIRE                 
AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO WED AFTERNOON.                                      
WILL HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH               
THIS EVENING...AND THEN FALLING TEMPS WED AFTERNOON IN PERIOD OF                
STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ..SHEETS..                                               
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE                    
WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN SOME FOR CHRISTMAS BUT BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN              
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL BE PULLING AWAY              
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE               
BUILDING IN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH OVER THE                 
EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING TO SUPPORT INCLUDING SOME LOW CHANCE              
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW. CLEARING IS EXPECT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY                 
MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TIMING                
OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH FRESH SNOW COVER SUPPORTS CUTTING GUIDANCE               
ABOUT A CATEGORY IN THE NORTH...YIELDING LOWS OF 0 TO -5 NORTH OF               
I-80 AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE SOUTH. CHRISTMAS DAY                   
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH RETURN FLOW HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES              
ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS. HELD HIGHS TO AROUND 20               
IN THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. IN THE SOUTH THOUGH EXPECT              
TEMPS TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVES               
THROUGH. UPPER TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. MID WEEK IS                
PROGGED TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY                     
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MESSY WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION.                   
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT                  
WILL DRAW IN GULF AIR. THE GFS SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF SWLY 50KT+                
H8 WINDS TRANSPORTING DEWPOINTS OF +4 TO +6C AND H8 TEMPS OF +4 TO              
+10C INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO BREAKING                
OUT PCPN IN STRONG WAA. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF FREEZING              
RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE AREA WITH THE BETTER THREAT NORTH. MODELS               
ARE SUGGESTING QPFS AROUND A COUPLE OF TENTHS BY FRIDAY                         
MORNING...OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER HOW MUCH OF               
THIS ENDS UP BEING FREEZING RAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF                   
CHANGE OVER FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN. STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD                 
KEEP TEMPS RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN                 
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. BY 12Z FRIDAY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING              
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS               
SETTING UP FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH GULF MOISTURE                     
ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE               
PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE MOST DRAMATIC OF THE MODELS LIFTING A WAVE               
NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MI SATURDAY MORNING.              
THE ECMWF FAVORS A LESS INTENSE SOLUTION BUT STILL GENERATES SOME               
SIGNIFICANT PCPN. EVEN THROUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE                
MODELS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE GENERAL IDEA IS                      
THERE...SO CONFIDENCE IS ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN                 
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER NORTHWESTERN IL DURING               
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST OF THE RIVER                   
SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE UPPER FLOW GOES ZONAL                  
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK SUGGESTING THE YEAR SHOULD END                
UP ON A DRY NOTE WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.                       
...DLF...                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR CIGS AND            
VSBYS BY 03Z AS SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.  SOME FRZR AND/OR PL               
CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT KBRL DURING THIS TIME.  THE SNOW IS EXPECTED              
TO INCREASE AFTER 03Z DROPPING CONDITIONS TO LIFR AT                            
KDBQ/KMLI/KCID.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY                   
MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS UNTIL                
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WNW            
WITH THE FROPA. ...DLF.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE STRONG SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT THE END OF              
THE WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.  AT THIS            
TIME IT APPEARS THE HEAVIER RAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FALL                
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH            
SNOWMELT FROM AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY            
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TRIBUTARIES TO RISE CLOSE            
TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THE COMBINATION OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES            
AND RISING RIVER LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ICE            
JAM FORMATION. ...DLF...                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     CLINTON-JACKSON.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST                    
     WEDNESDAY FOR CLINTON-JACKSON.                                             
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR DES MOINES-          
     HENRY IA-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN.                             
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST                
     WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-                 
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.                            
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST                    
     WEDNESDAY FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.                     
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR HANCOCK-             
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.                             
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BUREAU-               
     HENRY IL-PUTNAM.                                                           
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLARK-               
     SCOTLAND.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHEETS/DLF                                                                      
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1155 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS                                           
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FREEZING LINE NOW NEAR DYERSBURG AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE                      
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ARE RISING ABOUT 1 DEGREE PER HOUR. WILL KEEP                 
THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AND CANCEL AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE                 
FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND RUC 2M                        
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                       
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR TO                     
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWFA. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN                 
MORE CORRECT SINCE 12Z YESTERDAY DEPICTING THE MINOR MORNING                    
PRECIP EVENT 09-15Z...DESPITE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. RADAR                     
CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLD/SCT VERY LIGHT FZRA/IP SHOWERS MOVING ENE               
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS DUE TO                
THE INSTANT FREEZING OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON TO ROAD                      
SURFACES.                                                                       
NEW 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FLARE UP OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS              
THE FA BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM. AT 14Z...THE FREEZING LINE WAS AS                 
CLOSE AS KDYR...BUT THEN HEADED SW OF KJBR IN NE ARKANSAS. THE 12Z              
NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 32F TEMPS WHERE THE                
ORIGINAL ADVISORY WAS IN PLACE...FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SW                 
INDIANA. THE RUC 2M TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY COLDER THAN THE NAM AND MAY              
BE MORE CORRECT. MEANWHILE...ACROSS SW INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE                
OF WRN KY THE 12Z NAM TEMPS RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WILL                
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE STILL                    
BELIEVE THAT WE SHOULD TRANSITION TO ABOVE FREEZING CONDITIONS                  
AROUND 00Z/ISH.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR ACROSS THE COLD                 
GROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING               
CEILINGS...WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS TONIGHT. VSBYS WILL BE LOCALLY IFR              
IN FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS...BUT STRONG WINDS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT FOG             
PROBLEMS. ISOLATED THUNDER COULD OCCUR...BUT CHANCES OF THUNDER AT              
ANY GIVEN AIRPORT ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. COVERED                
THIS POSSIBILITY WITH CB CLOUD TYPE. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES               
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST.               
WIND SPEEDS NEAR 80 KNOTS AT 4K FEET COULD POSE SOME LLWS CONCERN.              
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BALLARD-          
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-                   
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-                   
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-                  
     WEBSTER.                                                                   
MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW                     
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.                            
IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-               
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION                
     IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.                                       
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GIBSON-           
     PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PS/MY                                                                           
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
352 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A COLD         
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...CROSSING               
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE               
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING                
THE MID ATLANTIC LATE SATURDAY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
AT 20Z...CNTR OF 1038MB SFC HI PRES NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID               
ATLANTIC COAST. BROAD AREA OF STRONG LLVL FLOW...CURRENTLY FROM                 
THE PIEDMONT TO THE MIDDLE MS VLY...TO SHIFT EWARD OVER THE FA                  
THIS EVE THRU WED NGT.                                                          
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH HAS KEPT SKIES CLEAR WITH                 
SFC TEMPS LWR 30S ON THE ERN SHRE TO LWR 40S IN THE TIDEWATER OF                
VA AND NE NC. WRMG AND MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERE TO BEGIN TONIGHT                
WITH SLY FLOW.                                                                  
LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS AGREE ON SSWLY LLJ DVLPNG TNGT (50 KTS AT 925 MB             
BY 06Z WED). TIMING OF SATURATION OF LLVLS (900 MB TO 950 MB) OVER              
VA PIEDMONT VARIES AMONG THE MODELS WITH 18Z NAM EARLIEST (BY                   
03Z) AND RUC LATEST (AFTER 06Z). DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ALONG               
ERN VA PIEDMONT (WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR). WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING              
FROM LWR 20S AND SFC TEMPS AROUND 32F AT THE TIME...EVAPORATIVE                 
COOLING WOULD RESULT IN SFC TEMPS BLO 32F WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR             
AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR LIGHT                   
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN FROM 08 TO 12Z (3AM TO 7AM) FOR PRINCE EDWARD                
CO N THRU LOUISA CO VA. LIQUID LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EASTWARD ACROSS               
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE SUNRISE. LATER SHIFT WILL REANALYZE                    
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEWEST GUIDANCE.                                   
MIN TEMP TONITE AROUND MIDNIGHT...LWR 40S SE TO LWR 30S NW...WITH               
RISING TEMPS FROM WAA THEREAFTER.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                          
DP LYRD WAA THRU WED NGT AHEAD OF NEXT CDFRNT. CO LOW CURRENTLY                 
SPILLING ONTO THE PLAINS TO OVER CHICAGO BY MIDDAY WED. TRAILING                
SFC CDFNT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED NGT...THEN CONTS TO THE                  
CAROLINA COAST BY THU MRNG. TEMPS RISE FROM MIDNIGHT TNGT THRU WED              
AFTN...MAX TEMPS WED MID 50S NW TO MID 60S. SCHC OF SHOWERS AHEAD               
OF FRONT WED AFTER SUNRISE...THEN POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TO LIKELY                
NW TO SE (SW TO NE ORIENTATION OF EWARD MVNG FRNT) MID AFTN THRU                
THE EVE. AROUND A QUARTER INCH QPF ACRS FA.                                     
FRNT PUSHES INTO CAROLINAS BY THU AFTN...W/ HI PRES BUILDING INTO               
FRI. MINS THUR MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE...SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND                
FRONT THUR MRNG WITH CAA KEEPING AFTN TEMPS ON THUR IN MID 50S (NR              
50 ERN SHRE). RADIATIONAL COOLING THUR NGT...UPR 20S NW AND ERN                 
SHRE TO MID TO UPR 30S SE. MAX UPR 40S N TO MID 50S S FRI WITH                  
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS             
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A               
WARM FRONT WL MOVE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWINGING              
THROUGH LATE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE                  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA                 
CLOSE TO THE END OF THE PERIOD ON NEXT WEDNESDAY. LOOKS TO BE A MILD            
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. DO NOT                  
EXPECT A MAJOR COOL DOWN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY...MAYBE                   
FALLING OFF INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND SORT OF STAYING THAT              
WAY UNTIL AROUND MID-WEEK. RAINFALL CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT                    
TREMENDOUS AS NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THE MOISTURE                              
ADVECTION...HOWEVER HAVE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME SHOWER CHANCES                
FRIDAY AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED UP FROM THE SE. THE             
SREF CIGS ALL SHOW HIGH PROBABILITY OF CIGS BELOW 1000 FEET. HOWEVER            
SO FAR THE MOISTURE HAS NOT COME ON SHORE LIKE THE MODELS ARE                   
SHOWING. ALSO WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE A               
HARD TIME GETTING MUCH LOW CIGS. WILL GO FOR SOME IFR CIGS LATE                 
TONIGHT THEN RISE THEM AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES ON WED AND BRING                
BACK VFR CONDITIONS. WITH FRONT COMING THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN             
BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT. BACK TO VFR ON CHRISTMAS            
DAY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA FLAGS FLAGS RAISED RIGHT NOW UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY             
MORNING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO TIMING...HOWEVER               
THINK CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. GFS SOLN INDICATES SOME              
GUSTS TO GALE ON WEDNESDAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT SOLUTION AS                
BEING ENOUGH FOR A MIXING DOWN TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE SO WILL                
JUST GO WITH STRONG SCA UNTIL FURTHER REVIEW. SEAS COULD GET AS HIGH            
AS 7 OR 8 FEET OR SOMEWHERE ABOUTS. AFTER THURSDAY...SHOULD GET A               
BREAK FROM ANY MARINE HAZARDS AT LEAST UP UNTIL SUNDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY         
     FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BAJ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BAJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BAJ                                                                
LONG TERM...KLL                                                                 
AVIATION...JAB                                                                  
MARINE...KLL                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
445 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...                                             
.SYNOPSIS...(445 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008)                                        
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND             
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF SNOW            
ARE EXPECTED SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE SNOW            
WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND                                                         
PRECIPITATION COULD MIX WITH RAIN... SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN              
WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96.                                        
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS EVE. HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND BRING AN END TO ANY                 
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL TRY TO MOVE IN               
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SHOWERS AND                    
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1208 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008)                                     
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)                                               
EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REGION NORTH OF A              
LINE FROM SAUGATUCK TO MOUNT PLEASANT.                                          
THE WINTER STORM IS CONTINUES WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADING            
TO SOME MODERATE SNOWS HERE IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. ALREADY REPORTS              
OF 6 INCHES IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS COMING IN FROM AROUND NEW RICHMOND            
TO HUDSONVILLE TO GRAND HAVEN AREA. CURRENT                                     
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING                      
WITH WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.  WILL                
NEED TO MONITOR THE ICE STORM ONGOING IN PARTS OF ILLINOIS TRYING TO            
MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER MI.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND                
MIDNIGHT.  THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO COME IN ON               
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW.  WARMER AIR IS SHOWN TO               
POTENTIALLY LIFT INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 ON WEDNESDAY.             
THE GFS HAS 925 MB TEMPS UP TO 5 DEG C AT KJXN 18Z WED... WHILE THE             
NAM IS 1 DEG C.  THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY              
AS IT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND STORM TOTAL             
ACCUMULATIONS. THE STORM WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING                           
WE ADDED A MENTION OF THE WEIGHT OF THE WATER ON ROOFS TO OUR                   
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  2 TO 4 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT                      
ALREADY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRI INTO SAT...WILL LEAD            
TO AN INCREASING RISK DUE TO THE WEIGHT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(400 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2008)                                       
(CHRISTMAS THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                     
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS FOR THE                  
EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                                
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS            
DAY PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT... AS LOW PRESSURE             
SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO            
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE UP THE            
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND HELP TO MOVE THE WEATHER             
OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF             
THE COLD FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT             
AND CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND                   
SATURDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. AS THE TEMPERATURES              
FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT... THE RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK            
TO SNOW AND COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING.                                      
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.                      
HOWEVER... A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE                 
REGION AND MAY BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN.               
THESE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED... AS A SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH            
WOULD BRING THE WEATHER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(955 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2008)                                          
WILL CONTINUE THE GALES THIS EVENING. THE RUC MODEL SHOWED GALE                 
FORCE GUSTS IN THE NSH WATERS THROUGH 00Z WED..  THE WINDS WILL                 
SETTLE DOWN AFTER THAT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1227 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008)                                       
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES VARYING FROM                
UNDER A MILE TO SEVERAL MILES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES BELOW 1000 FT.              
WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THIS                
WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED MIXED               
PRECIPITATION TO ALL BUT KMKG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AS             
AN AREA WITH LESS MOISTURE DEPTH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE WINDS             
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND                
EASTERN TAF SITES TOMORROW WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A MIX IN               
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SITES.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(445 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008)                                       
ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE SOME FLUCTUATING RIVER STAGES THROUGH THE COMING            
DAYS. ANOTHER STORM ON FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING AS                    
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OR MAYBE 50S WILL MELT A LOT OF THE                     
SNOWPACK. THEREFORE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MELTING AND              
RUNOFF INTO THE RIVERS AND STREAMS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND              
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.                               
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE THROUGH                    
00Z WED.                                                                        
MI...WINTER WX ADVISORY SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWFA THROUGH 08Z                 
THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING NORTHWEST  TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWFA                
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     MJS                                                               
SHORT TERM:   MJS                                                               
LONG TERM:    IOD                                                               
MARINE:       MJS                                                               
AVIATION:     IOD                                                               
HYDROLOGY:    MJS                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
405 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WV IMAGERY AND H500 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE              
WRN CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH.            
FIRST WAVE THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED OVER SWRN              
ONTARIO...WHILE NEXT WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. BROAD            
AREA OF CLOUDS SEEN ON VIS/IR SAT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND GREAT             
LKS REGION...AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OVERRIDES THE COLD AIR             
IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LKS. AT THE SFC...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1003MB            
LOW OVER SRN MN...WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING SW TO SECONDARY 997MB                
LOW OVER SE CO. CLOSER TO HOME...SAT AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING                   
DIMINISHING PCPN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT OVER ERN UP...WHERE            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IS SLIDING EAST INTO WRN                
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. THIS BAND...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT                 
EARLIER IN THE DAY...PRODUCED A FEW FLUFFY 5-6 INCH SNOWFALL REPORTS            
OVER THE SE HALF OF DELTA COUNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA SAW AROUND               
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING MOVED THROUGH.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...                                          
TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS SHIFTED OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY...AS A SERIES              
OF WAVES MOVED NE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTENSIFIED UPPER JET OVER              
THE GREAT LKS REGION. BEST ISENTROPIC FORCING ON 285-300K LAYERS AND            
SHORTWAVE SLIDES NE OVER CANADA THIS EVENING...BRINING AN END TO                
MOST OF THE PCPN TO THE CWA. DRY AIR...AND WARMER CLOUD TOPS ON IR              
SAT...BETWEEN H700-500 WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE WRN UP AND               
INTO THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK THIS WILL LIMIT              
THE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK PCPN                  
CHANCES A LITTLE MORE OVER THE CNTRL UP THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.                 
CONTINUED THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE FAR WRN CWA DURING THE              
OVERNIGHT HRS...AS LLVL CONV...MARGINAL OMEGA IN DGZ...AND WEAK                 
H700-500 Q-VECT CONV ALONG THE WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDES INTO THERE                
BETWEEN 06-12Z. AS FOR THE ERN PART OF THE CWA...EXPECT LES OFF LK              
MI TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO              
THE SW. DELTA T VALUES REMAIN DECENT...AROUND 13-14C...AND LOW LVL              
CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP A STRONG WIND PARALLEL BAND GOING DURING                
THE EVENING. LOCAL REGWRF AND NAM SHOW THE BAND SHIFTING TO THE E               
AND EXITING SCHOOLCRAFT BY 03Z AND LUCE BY 06Z. THIS WAS HANDLED                
WELL BY THE PREVIOUS FCST...SO HAVEN/T CHANGED MUCH TO THAT PORTION             
OF THE FCST. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THINK THAT A QUICK COUPLE OF                 
INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR ERN DELTA...SRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND SRN               
LUCE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LARGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON SNOW AMNTS               
WILL BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BAND AS WINDS TURN TO THE SW AND                
HIGH DGZ...BETWEEN 5-9KFT...WHICH IS ABOVE BEST OMEGA. LATEST 18Z               
REGREW SHOWS THE BAND SLIDING E A LITTLE QUICKER THAN                           
EXPECTED...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS OF THE LES BAND            
SLIDING E OF DELTA COUNTY. THUS...WILL END THE DELTA COUNTY ADVISORY            
WITH FCST ISSUANCE AND KEEP SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE AS IS FOR NOW.                 
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODELS FOR THE TRACK AND INTENSITY            
OF THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FOR WED. IT APPEARS             
THAT THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAVE HANDLED THE POSITION AND                    
INTENSITY OF THE LOW AT 12Z TODAY...SO HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF                 
THOSE FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS PLACES THE 1005MB LOW OVER ERN MO AT             
12Z...WITH AN BROAD SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LKS                         
REGION...FROM A LOW OVER NRN HUDSON BAY. WAVE / JET STREAK ROTATING             
AROUND THE TROUGH TODAY...WILL INTERACT WITH THE LOW WED MORN. THIS             
WILL INTENSIFY THE LOW AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE                
AFTN WED. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE OVER LK MI AND NRN LOWER                     
MI...WITH DECENT F-GEN...LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 130KT JET STREAK...AND              
H500-300 Q-VECT CONV. EXPECT THIS TO JUST BRUSH THE SERN HALF OF                
UPPER MI...WITH THE BEST QPF/SNOW OCCURRING ALONG THE LK MI                     
SHORELINE. BEST OMEGA ALONG THE LAKESHORE LOOKS TO BE BELOW THE                 
DGZ...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SLR...SO ONLY HAVE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW                
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE SHORE ON WED. OVER THE W...WINDS TURN TO THE             
NW BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH WILL ALLOW LES TO CONTINUE. H850               
TEMPS ARE AROUND -13C AND SOME LLVL CONV PROMOTE LIKELY POPS ACROSS             
THE TRAD LES LOCATIONS OVER THE W. DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH FOR                   
ACCUMULATION...JUST A COUPLE OF INCHES...DUE TO LIMITED OMEGA IN THE            
DGZ AND INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 4-5KFT.                                         
.LONG TERM (WED NGT THRU TUE)...                                                
FOR WED NGT...WL MAINTAIN HI POPS FOR LES WED EVNG TO ACCOUNT FOR               
COLD AIR INFLUX (H85 TEMPS AT 00Z THU FCST AS LO AS -16C OVER THE W)            
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER LO...BUT WL TEND LOWER ON POPS                     
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W LATER AT NGT WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER            
STEADILY RISING HGTS IN DNVA IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/DOWNWIND OF            
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W (12HR H5 RISES IN EXCESS OF 100M FCST).                 
ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVIER SHSN MAY FALL (LES CHART WOULD SUG AS MUCH AS             
5-6"/12 HRS FOR EXPECTED PARAMETERS)...QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS THRU              
THE NGT WL LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME OF INDIVIDUAL BANDS AND OVERALL SN              
AMTS. OVER THE SCNTRL... SKIES SHOULD BCM CLR/PCLDY WITH TEMPS                  
FALLING BLO EVEN THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE CONSIDERING LGT WINDS               
EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC RDG AXIS AND LO PWAT NEAR              
0.1 INCH. PREVIOUS FCST LO TEMPS NEED LTL ADJUSTMENT.                           
EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING LES IN THE MRNG ON XMAS DAY OVER THE                  
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK SUP E OF P53...SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY WITH DRY                
AIRMASS OVHD (PWAT NOT MUCH ABV 0.10 INCH). ADJUSTED GOING FCST HI              
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SUBSIDENCE WRMG INCRSG H85 TEMPS TO               
ARND -5C BY 00Z FRI AND MIXING TO H9 ON GFS FCST SDNGS.                         
VIGOROUS WAD FCST TO DVLP ON THU NGT BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES RDG AND             
DEEPENING LO PRES IN THE PLAINS E OF DEEPENING TROF OVER THE                    
ROCKIES. SO AFT A DRY EARLY EVNG...EXPECT SN TO BREAK OUT OVER THE              
FA WITH GFS/NAM FCST SLY H85 WINDS AOA 50KTS ENHANCING MSTR INFLUX              
(12Z NAM SHOWS PWAT INCRSG TO ALMOST 0.75 INCH BY 12Z FRI)...WITH               
NAM AND GFS INCRSG H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TO 3-4G/KG AND 2-3G/KG BY               
12Z FRI. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/CNDN MODELS AT BREAKING            
OUT PCPN IN THE EVNG...WITH THE UKMET A COMPROMISE. CONSIDERING THE             
STRONG WINDS FCST BY BOTH MODELS...TENDED TOWARD THE FASTER SCENARIO            
AND THE HIER H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY. VIGOROUS H5-7 FGEN AND ENHANCED              
UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF WAD H3 JET MAX FCST TO DVLP BY 06Z WL ALSO                   
ACCENTUATE PCPN AMTS. THESE STRG DYNAMICS WARRANT HIER                          
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS. UPSLOPE SSE FLOW OFF LK MI WL LIKELY                   
ACCENTUATE PCPN AMTS OVER THE SCNTRL. LATER SHIFTS WL NEED TO                   
CONSIDER AN ADVY HEADLINE FOR SOME AREAS. TEMPS WL REACH OVERNGT                
LOWS RELATIVELY EARLY BEFORE RISING OVERNGT.                                    
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS MODEL SOLNS SHOWING DRYING ALF INVADING            
THE FA ON FRI IN SW FLOW ALF TO THE E OF LO PRES IN THE PLAINS...               
WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING MSTR CONFINED TO LYRS WHERE TEMPS ARE WARMER            
THAN -10C (IN FACT -5C ALMOST EVERYWHERE) BY AFTN. CONSIDERING THE              
HI LLVL STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF             
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR FRI. WITH LOSS OF HIER RH IN THE DGZ AND MSTR            
CONFINED TO LOWEST 100-150MB BY 00Z SAT...ANY PCPN ON FRI AFTN                  
SHOULD BE LGT -RA/-FZRA (ACTUALLY DZ/FZDZ). THERE WL BE LTL DIURNAL             
DROP IN TEMP ON FRI NGT. AS LO PRES CUTTING UP TO THE W ON SAT LIFTS            
NEWD INTO ONTARIO FRI NGT INTO SAT...COLDER AIR WL SPILL BACK INTO              
THE UPR GRT LKS. THERE ARE SGNFT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF             
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FROPA WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z CNDN MODEL/00Z                 
EXPERIMENTAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (STATISTICALLY ADJUSTED) SHOWING A               
MUCH QUICKER COLD FROPA ON FRI NGT. 12Z GFS HAS TENDED IN THIS                  
DIRECTION...WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT AND HAS IN FACT SLOWED DOWN THE             
FROPA A BIT. TENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLN GIVEN RECENT PREFERENCE FOR             
GFS FCST SCENARIO. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT SHOWN BY THIS MODEL              
IS A FARTHER W TRACK OF ANOTHER LO PRES LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE SRN             
PLAINS ON SAT. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT OVER THE E TO REFLECT THIS                  
POTENTIAL. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE MIXED GRDLY CHGING TO SN OVER THE W.              
ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WL FLOW BACK INTO THE UPR GRT LKS ON SAT NGT                
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA/LO PRES WAVE...FCST ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF             
THIS SYS WL LIMIT COLD AIR INFLUX (FCST H85 TEMPS ONLY TO -10C/LES              
INTENSITY SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG/ACYC FLOW ON             
SUN ENDING LGT LES BY SUN NGT. NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV/LO PRES IS                   
PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS ONTARIO ON MON. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND              
BETTER DYNAMICS STAYING TO THE N...WL GO WITH SOMEWHAT HIER CHC POPS            
OVER THE N BUT ONLY SLGT CHC OVER THE S. THE ECMWF SHOWS H85 TEMPS              
RISING ABV 0C... SO WL TEND TOWARD THE HI END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI            
TEMPS. WL TEND TOWARD LO CHC POPS ON MON NGT WITH APRCH OF CLIPPER              
COLD FNT BEFORE TRANSITION TO LES ON TUE. LACK OF MSTR...MODERATE               
COLD AIR INFLUX WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALF SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY             
OF THIS PCPN.                                                                   
COORDINATED WITH DLH/NCEP.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WIDESPREAD SNOW STILL WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS              
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3                    
HOURS...AS THE LAST SURGE MOVES OUT OF NRN WI. THIS SHOULD DROP                 
VSBYS DOWN TO LIFR AT BOTH TAF SITES...AS VSBYS DOWN TO 1/2SM WERE              
SEEN AT NRN WI SITES. BEHIND THIS PCPN BAND...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS             
TO COME UP...AS DRIER AIR AT THE MID LEVELS WORKS INTO THE AREA AND             
PCPN CHANCES DIMINISH. SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS WRN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO CMX LATE                 
TONIGHT...THUS TRIED TO PUT SOME TIMING IN WITH LOWER VSBYS. AT                 
SAW...BROUGHT AN END TO THE PCPN BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE MVFR CIGS                 
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID BRING -SN INTO SAW AROUND 14Z...AS LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI BRUSHES THE SITE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT SW WINDS TO 30KTS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING OVER THE              
ERN THIRD OF LK SUP. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                     
WED...BRINGING WINDS TO 30KTS OVER ERN LK SUP ON WED NIGHT. HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON WED NIGHT AND THURS...KEEPING             
WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN                
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURS NIGHT AND FRI...WITH GALE              
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR ON FRI.                   
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LK              
SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007-                
   014-085.                                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...SRF                                                       
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...SRF                                                                  
MARINE...SRF                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1241 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 407 AM)...                                                 
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY              
LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE              
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL                 
MOISTURE IS STREAMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES IN THE SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE.             
WITHIN THE FLOW...MAIN SHRTWVS OF NOTE ARE OVER SW MN...NE AZ AND               
OVER NW CA. UNDERNEATH THE FLOW...850MB WINDS FROM PROFILERS OVER               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN SPEED OUT OF THE               
SOUTH AND SW...NOW 60-70KT. THESE WINDS ARE HELPING TO BRING                    
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THIS HAS BEEN                
TAKING A WHILE BECAUSE OF SO MUCH DRY AIR INITIALLY TO OVERCOME.                
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE TEENS F IN OKLAHOMA. NONETHELESS...             
THE MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENOUGH SUCH THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE                   
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DPVA FROM THE SW              
MN SHRTWV...LIGHT SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT OVER NRN IA INTO SRN                      
MN/CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL/SRN WI. TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS APPEAR TO              
BE BTWN 1-2 INCHES. SNOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...BEING IMPACTED BY             
DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF               
15C OR GREATER FROM 950MB UP TO 500MB. THIS DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED               
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSING LOWER MI AND INTO THE                   
MID-ATLANTIC NOW. SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH HAVE ALLOWED            
ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES              
DROPPED DOWN BELOW ZERO LAST EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES             
AND THE DRY AIR. HOWEVER...NOW WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND CLOUDS                 
INCREASING... TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO SLOWLY RISE. OFF TO THE              
WEST... DOWNSLOPING MID-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES HAS RESULTED IN              
997MB LOW PRESSURE IN NE COLORADO.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 407 AM)...                                               
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER SW MN IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS UPPER MI THIS               
MORNING. NEXT SHRTWV CURRENTLY IN NE AZ IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH SE            
MN BY 00Z. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF DPVA WILL OCCUR BTWN 12 AND 16Z              
AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF DPVA SHOULD HELP             
BRING THE SNOW TO OUR SW INTO THE CWA...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODEL LIQUID PCPN VALUES OF                  
0.05-0.10 OF AN INCH SEEM REASONABLE WITH THIS ROUND OF FORCING...              
GIVEN THAT THE MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST               
MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...RESULTING IN A             
SNOW TO WATER RATIO PROBABLY AROUND 20 TO 1...SO BASICALLY THE                  
PERIOD BTWN 12-18Z SHOULD SEE ABOUT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS MATCHES            
UP WELL WITH OBSERVED VALUES TO OUR SW AS WELL. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY              
LIGHTEN UP EARLY IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV...BUT                    
CONTINUOUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN ON THE 285-300K SFCS WILL LIKELY                
KEEP SOME GOING. IN FACT...LATER IN THE AFTN SNOW SHOULD INCREASE               
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHRTWV COMING INTO SE MN...ALONG                
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120-130KT              
JET STREAK LIFTING INTO SE WI. THEREFORE ANOTHER 0.05-0.10 OF AN                
INCH OF PCPN IS LIKELY...OR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE FORCING AGAIN              
IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS LAKE                 
EFFECT BANDING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTN WHEN THE               
LOW LEVELS GET SATURATED ENOUGH TO HELP THE LAKE PRODUCE THE BAND.              
AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD ON THE POSITION OF THE BAND...RANGING FROM ERN            
DELTA IN THE NAM TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY IN THE REGIONAL                      
CANADIAN/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN. GFS IS SPLIT BTWN THE TWO...BUT ACTUALLY            
SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE. IT SUGGEST THE BAND FIRST IMPACTS THE                
GARDEN PENINSULA AREA WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN HEADS EAST             
ACROSS LUCE AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AS WINDS VEER SW. THIS LAKE                  
ENHANCEMENT SHOULD HELP ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO...SO A SOLID              
ADVISORY EVENT IS LIKELY. DECIDED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO DELTA             
COUNTY IN CASE THE NAM SHOULD PAN OUT...AND THAT THE GENERAL                    
SYNOPTIC SNOW IS CLOSE TO ADVISORY ANYWAY. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE                
WARMER THAN PAST DAYS...RISING INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS SHOWN BY                  
MODELS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS...DUE TO NEW TROUGHING DROPPING              
DOWN OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A STRONG SHRTWV MOVING INTO CA               
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST...IT CARRIES THE               
COLORADO LOW EASTWARD TO THE ST LOUIS MO AREA BY 12Z WED. OVER UPPER            
MI...A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN.               
THIS TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK THAT ACTIVE...PRIMARILY DUE TO A LOSS OF              
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANY DPVA (SHRTWV OVER SE MN ENDS UP CROSSING                
UPPER MI IN THE EVENING). STILL...A FEW FLURRIES OR -SN SEEM                    
POSSIBLE...AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY               
LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD MOVE INTO MACKINAC COUNTY BY               
MIDNIGHT...SO GOING ADVISORY END TIME LOOKS REASONABLE. DESPITE LACK            
OF PCPN...SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...PRIMARILY LOW AND HIGH            
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP...EVEN WITH WINDS               
DIMINISHING FROM THE BREEZY STATE DURING THE DAY. WENT WITH A BLEND             
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                                                      
WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM OF FOCUS WILL BE ON THE LOW IN ST LOUIS MO AT             
12Z WED...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV IN WRN MO (CURRENTLY THE              
ONE IN NW CALIFORNIA). MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING             
THE SHRTWV NE THROUGH NRN IL AND INTO LAKE HURON BY 00Z THU...                  
PHASING WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER              
THE YELLOWSTONE NATL PARK AREA. THE NET RESULT IS TO DEEPEN THE SFC             
LOW AS IT HEADS UP INTO CENTRAL LAKE HURON LATE WED. THE NAM IS BY              
FAR THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS NOT TO                    
DIFFERENT (AROUND 1000MB). THE GFS AND UKMET ARE THE DEEPEST WITH               
PRESSURES AROUND 990MB. DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH OUR                
LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN WHICH AS A PRESSURE AROUND 997MB...BUT A DEEPER               
SOLUTION IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE GIVEN PHASING PRESENCE. EITHER                  
WAY...MAJORITY OF DEFORMATION PCPN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW IS              
LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH OR JUST CLIP THE LAKE MI COUNTIES AND               
LUCE COUNTY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. NORTHERLY FLOW                 
INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -13C              
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.             
COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION FROM THE LAKE EFFECT...SINCE            
IT APPEARS MOST OF THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC                 
GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THE COOLING 850MB TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR                 
AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PROBABLY FALL. HAVE AGAIN FOLLOWED A              
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.                                                    
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SHRTWV AND SFC LOW OVER LAKE            
HURON LOOK TO RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE NE...WITH MODELS INDICATING               
THEM REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z THU. BEHIND THEM...A                
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UPPER MI BY 12Z. COLD                    
ADVECTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW SHOULD CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT...BUT FLOW TURNING ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE                 
RIDGE MOVING IN...ALONG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF            
THE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT AND THE BANDS MOVING. STILL MAINTAINED HIGH               
POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND EAST GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LAKE                  
EFFECT OCCURRING. INLAND AREAS COULD GET QUITE CHILLY AFTER MIDNIGHT            
AS WINDS DROP OFF AND SKIES CLEAR. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF            
GOING BELOW GUIDANCE...TO AS LOW AS 8 BELOW NEAR THE WI BORDER.                 
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                  
BUILDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRYING AND                   
SUBSIDENCE. IN FACT...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOME                  
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO -5             
TO -9C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOW 20S. DID NOT            
WANT TO GO TOO MUCH HIGHER GIVEN THE COLD START OFF.                            
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE               
WESTERN U.S. AT 00Z FRI...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WYOMING.              
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL IN              
GENERAL OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE              
OUT AT LEAST INTO THE PLAINS...OR PERHAPS NE TOWARDS THE UPPER                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE CASE OF THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN. IN ANY                  
EVENT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHRTWV LIFTING THROUGH THE SW FLOW                
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING GULF                    
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...SIMILAR TO THAT OF             
TODAY. THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING IT            
INTO UPPER MI THU NIGHT AND EXITING SOMETIME FRI MORNING. CONTINUED             
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INDICATED FRI AFTERNOON AS A PLUME OF ABOVE 0C               
850MB TEMPS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI. THIS MEANS CONTINUED PCPN             
IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND                 
RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR STRAIGHT RAIN WOULD BE ALONG LAKE MI.                     
REGARDING TEMPS...LOWS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE EVENING AS                      
INCREASING WINDS AND PCPN CAUSE READINGS TO RISE. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB            
UP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ON FRI...SOMETHING NOT SEEN IN UPPER              
MI SINCE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THE 15TH OF THIS MONTH.                     
BEYOND FRI...SOME CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE FRI NIGHT/SAT TIME                  
PERIOD. ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN OVERALL CONTINUE TO MOVE MORE AND              
MORE NW WITH THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE                 
ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TAKING THE LEAD ROLE IN THE TREND WITH THE OTHER              
RUNS CATCHING UP TO IT. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS THAT FRI                
NIGHT COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT IT            
HAS BEEN...WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH            
THE NIGHT. DID NOT GO COMPLETELY THAT WAY YET...BUT TRENDED IN THAT             
DIRECTION. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT...SO            
RAISED HIGHS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI.                 
FUTURE REFINEMENT TO THE FRI NIGHT/SAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE NEEDED               
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW             
BECOMES CLEARER.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WIDESPREAD SNOW STILL WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS              
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3                    
HOURS...AS THE LAST SURGE MOVES OUT OF NRN WI. THIS SHOULD DROP                 
VSBYS DOWN TO LIFR AT BOTH TAF SITES...AS VSBYS DOWN TO 1/2SM WERE              
SEEN AT NRN WI SITES. BEHIND THIS PCPN BAND...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS             
TO COME UP...AS DRIER AIR AT THE MID LEVELS WORKS INTO THE AREA AND             
PCPN CHANCES DIMINISH. SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS WRN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO CMX LATE                 
TONIGHT...THUS TRIED TO PUT SOME TIMING IN WITH LOWER VSBYS. AT                 
SAW...BROUGHT AN END TO THE PCPN BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE MVFR CIGS                 
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID BRING -SN INTO SAW AROUND 14Z...AS LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI BRUSHES THE SITE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...WITH A FEW GALE            
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER EASTERN LAKE                     
SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL                
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN                
WISCONSIN TO MISSOURI WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD THEN MOVE TO                
LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE LOWER OHIO             
VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE            
TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE               
DAY THURSDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE                
NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE                  
DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO CAN BE EXPECTED MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007-                
     014-085.                                                                   
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013.               
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...SRF                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1218 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LET WINTER WX ADVY EXPIRE AT NOON FOR 3 REMAINING WC WI COUNTIES.               
SFC LOW NR WC MN WL TRACK EWRD DRNG AFTN...BUT BEST LIFT NOW                    
ACROSS N MN WITH NVA ACRS MOST OF THE SOUTH.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1134 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008/                                            
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH NOON...OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE                        
ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAD ENDED OVER OUR CWA. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST                  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...MOST OF SEEDED FEEDED CLOUDS ALOFT               
HAVE LIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT                
SOME SNOW FLURRIES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.                       
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 316 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008/                           
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY              
THIS MORNING...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RUC-PROGGED ISENTROPIC                
LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280K-                 
290K SURFACES. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO             
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN/WI THIS MORNING...AS THE PV ANOMALY NOSES               
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN. ESTIMATE TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2               
INCH RANGE HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE               
LAPS SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES. ESTIMATE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE            
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING /MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL                
WI/...WHERE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 G/KG. THE              
ADVISORY APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE                     
CORRELATION OF THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING AROUND               
THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE IN THE 15 TO            
25 KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO               
LINGER THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW                
CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS THE INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO              
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA                
LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES                   
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO              
THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.               
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO              
FRIDAY...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.               
THIS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE CWA THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE                 
UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES              
WILL COME WITH A PRICE...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND                  
THICKNESSES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION            
ON FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SNOW ACROSS              
THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE              
CATEGORY FROM 12Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT/CONTINUITY             
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SATL IMAGERY SHWG SM ERROSION OF CLDS ACRS S MN IN RATHER STG                   
NVA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO RMN THRU AFTN AT AXN...BUT RMDR TAF                 
SITES VFR. SFC TROF WL PUSH INTO W MN THIS AFTN AND INTO WC WI IN               
THE EVE WHICH SHUD BRNG A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS/VSVYS IN LGT FOG IN               
OVERNITE HRS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JVM/BAP                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1134 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1045 AM CST                                                
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH NOON...OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE                        
ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAD ENDED OVER OUR CWA. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST                  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...MOST OF SEEDED FEEDED CLOUDS ALOFT               
HAVE LIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT                
SOME SNOW FLURRIES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 316 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008/                          
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY              
THIS MORNING...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RUC-PROGGED ISENTROPIC                
LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280K-                 
290K SURFACES. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO             
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN/WI THIS MORNING...AS THE PV ANOMALY NOSES               
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN. ESTIMATE TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2               
INCH RANGE HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE               
LAPS SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES. ESTIMATE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE            
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING /MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL                
WI/...WHERE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 G/KG. THE              
ADVISORY APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE                     
CORRELATION OF THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING AROUND               
THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE IN THE 15 TO            
25 KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO               
LINGER THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW                
CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS THE INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO              
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA                
LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES                   
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO              
THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.               
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO              
FRIDAY...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.               
THIS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE CWA THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE                 
UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES              
WILL COME WITH A PRICE...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND                  
THICKNESSES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION            
ON FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SNOW ACROSS              
THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE              
CATEGORY FROM 12Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT/CONTINUITY             
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.                                       
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SATL IMAGERY SHWG SM ERROSION OF CLDS ACRS S MN IN RATHER STG                   
NVA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO RMN THRU AFTN AT AXN...BUT RMDR TAF                 
SITES VFR. SFC TROF WL PUSH INTO W MN THIS AFTN AND INTO WC WI IN               
THE EVE WHICH SHUD BRNG A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS/VSVYS IN LGT FOG IN               
OVERNITE HRS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-          
     RUSK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JVM/BAP                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1045 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF WEST                
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH NOON...OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE                        
ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAD ENDED OVER OUR CWA. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER             
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...MOST OF SEEDED FEEDED CLOUDS ALOFT HAVE               
LIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME                
SNOW FLURRIES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND MID LEVEL WAVE OVER             
EASTERN SD HAS MOVED MAINLY TO THE NE OF KMSP...AND KRWF BUT STILL              
AFFECTING THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND OCNL                
LIFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON IN THE SNOW AREAS. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL               
MOVE EAST AND NORTH OF THE OTHER TAF STIES BEFORE 18Z. THIS WILL                
LEAVE OCNL FLURRIES OR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW THE REST OF THE DAY                  
WITH WEAKER WARM AVECTION. ASSOCIATED CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR BUT              
COULD BE A SCT015-020 CONDITION AND LOW VFR FOR A TIME. SURFACE                 
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.              
STILL GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IN WEAK GRADIENT PRESSURE PATTERN                
BUT COULD BE SOME BREAKS WITH INCREAISNG RIDGING TOWARD END OF                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 316 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008/                          
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY              
THIS MORNING...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RUC-PROGGED ISENTROPIC                
LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280K-                 
290K SURFACES. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO             
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN/WI THIS MORNING...AS THE PV ANOMALY NOSES               
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN. ESTIMATE TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2               
INCH RANGE HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE               
LAPS SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES. ESTIMATE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE            
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING /MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL                
WI/...WHERE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 G/KG. THE              
ADVISORY APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE                     
CORRELATION OF THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING AROUND               
THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE IN THE 15 TO            
25 KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO               
LINGER THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW                
CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS THE INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO              
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA                
LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES                   
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO              
THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.               
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO              
FRIDAY...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.               
THIS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE CWA THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE                 
UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES              
WILL COME WITH A PRICE...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND                  
THICKNESSES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION            
ON FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/SNOW ACROSS              
THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE              
CATEGORY FROM 12Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT/CONTINUITY             
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THIS AFTERNOON FOR                      
     BARRON...CHIPPEWA-RUSK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JVM/LS/JPR                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
935 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...ADJUSTED HIGHS FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SOME                 
SECTIONS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARMER TEMPS AS WEAK WARM              
FRONT LIFTS NWD...JUST ADJUSTED DEGREE OF WARMING SLIGHTLY. WILL SEE            
GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LAKE WIND                    
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EFFECTS OF THE            
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG WIND            
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON.            
AREAS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER WRN                   
SXNS...DUE TO CONTINUED WAA TODAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...425 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008 TODAY THROUGH                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARMER AND WETTER. AS THE CENTER OF THE DRY ARCTIC            
AIRMASS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA TODAY A DECENT WARM UP AND              
MOISTENING IS EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING              
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH               
WILL HELP THE ASSOCIATED LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW MOVER TOWARD THE                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW              
AND THE DEPARTING CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING             
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR CWFA TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT HAVE                
HELPED ALL SITES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS HAVE                  
CANCELED THE HARD FREEZE WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTH               
CENTRAL COUNTIES. AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS AND MOISTENS FROM THE                 
SOUTHWEST TODAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE               
WEST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A FEW RETURNS BUT MUCH OF THE                    
ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THE 00Z TUE JAN SOUNDING            
AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL THIS MORNING               
THAT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SLEET IN THE WEST               
BEFORE WARMING ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. CONSIDERING THE WARMING                     
TEMPERATURES SURFACE AND ALOFT NO ACCUMULATIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN IS            
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE              
AND MEET LOCAL LAKE WIND CRITERIA OVER ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEAST MOST               
COUNTIES. WL HOIST THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS              
EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS            
WILL HELP MAINTAIN OUR WARM UP TONIGHT. MODELS LIKELY WARM AND                  
MOISTEN OUR AREA A LITTLE TOO FAST BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS                  
MORNING ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE TEENS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE            
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING OVER OUR                
SOUTHWEST. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THE             
STRENGTHENING SHEAR MAY LEND TO AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. WL                   
CONTINUE MENTION OF STRONG STORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. MODELS AGREE             
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN LIFTING RAPIDLY TO             
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO DROP            
INTO OUR CWFA WEDNESDAY AND STALL. THE GFS NOW STALLS THIS FRONT A              
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN LAST NIGHT`S RUN...ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84               
CORRIDOR. GREATEST POPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE CARRIED TUESDAY               
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY                  
EVENING. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO            
THE COAST CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THE FLOW WILL QUICKLY SWING AROUND                
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY            
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THE                
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...PUSHING NORTH               
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE                   
CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH               
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.                                                    
ANOTHER DEEPENING U/L TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ARKLAMISS ON FRIDAY              
AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH              
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE EURO/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WITH                
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE EURO WILL GO WITH              
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE               
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AS APPOSED TO OPERATIONAL WHICH PUSHES                    
EVERYTHING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE               
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WITH              
THIS SYSTEM AND THE SLOWER SOLUTION MAY ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE                     
INSTABILITY SINCE IT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH AT MAX HEATING. WILL               
CONTINUE TO MENTION STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.                         
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY             
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.                                            
MADE SOME CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE                  
WEEKEND WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE EURO. CUT POPS FRIDAY                   
NIGHT...BUT RAISED POPS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND ALSO SATURDAY            
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATE ON SATURDAY              
SO ALSO BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE./15/                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT MOST SITES AS CEILINGS            
HAVE GRADUALLY LOWERED THROUGH THE MORNING TO BELOW 3000 FEET.  THIS            
WILL BE THE CASE AT ALL SITES TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                    
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS            
SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE RAIN IS EXPECTED AT ALL              
SITES PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...SOME ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.             
IN ADDITION...AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES               
CLOSER TO THE REGION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME                 
GUSTY FROM THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND INTO              
CHRISTMAS EVE. /19/                                                             
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-                    
     019-025>062.                                                               
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR                            
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.                                                
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: 15                                                                   
03/19                                                                           
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1119 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...MAIN BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY EXITING FAR NE WI LATE THIS               
MORNING WITH VSBYS IMPROVING ACROSS CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI. AFTER                 
COLLABORATION WITH ARX AND DLH...WL DROP THE ADVY FOR CNTRL AND                 
PARTS OF FAR NE WI AT NOON. HAVE KEPT THE ADVY IN EFFECT FOR                    
E-CNTRL WI AS THIS RGN TO GET INTO THE RGT ENTRANCE RGN OF THE UPR              
JET FOR ADDL LGT SNOW ACCUMULATION THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO                
RAISED TEMPS OVR E-CNTRL WI AS READINGS ALREADY APPROACHING                     
PREVIOUSLY THROUGH MAXS FOR THE DAY.                                            
AK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 704 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008...                      
UPDATE...SNOW PILING UP PRETTY FAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE FIRST WAVE                
OF PCPN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NE THIS AFTN. BUT FAST START HAS                  
SOME IMPLICATIONS. FIRST...NEED TO POST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH                  
SINCE A QUICK 3 INCHES OR SO LIKELY THERE THIS MORNING...AND SOME               
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO NEED TO UP TOTALS FOR              
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BACK TO 3 TO 5 INCHES. WILL KEEP THE EAST AT                
3-5 INCHES SINCE NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON GETTING SIG REDEVELOPMENT                  
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT ASAP.                                           
SKOWRONSKI                                                                      
DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008...                              
SYNOPSIS...STG JET FLOWING ARND NERN PAC RIDGE WAS SPLITTING                    
OVER NOAM...WITH NRN BRANCH FLOWING ARND DEEP VORTEX OVER HUDSON                
BAY...AND SRN BRANCH MAINTAINING DEEP TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE              
TREND DURING THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR ENERGY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO               
THE SRN STREAM...THEN FOR THE FLOW ACRS NOAM TO DEAMPLIFY. BY THE               
MIDDLE OF NEXT WK...LOOKS LIKE WE WL HAVE A VERY FAST WLY JET                   
FLOWING ACRS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...THROUGH WHAT WL BE BASE                
OF VERY LARGE BROAD TROF.                                                       
PATTERN WL REMAIN EXTREMELY ACTIVE AS LONG AS AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM              
REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD BE FOR THE REST OF THE WK AND INTO              
THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE CHGS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT                
QUIETER WX REGIME NEXT WK...BUT WITH STG BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSE TO               
THE AREA HAVE TO WONDER IF SOME SMALLER SCALE SYSTEMS THAT AREN/T               
REALLY FULLY RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT WL END UP COMING INTO PLAY.                  
PCPN AMNTS FOR THE NEXT WK SHOULD END UP ABV NORMAL. WOULD EXPECT               
TEMPS TO TEND TO AOB NORMAL LEVELS AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.                   
SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/WED. ALL KINDS OF ISSUES TO SORT OUT WITH                 
THE FCST. SERIES OF SHRTWVS EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL LEAD                
TO SEVERAL SLUGS OF PCPN THE NEXT 36 HRS. FIRST SLUG NOW LIFTG                  
INTO THE RGN...BEING SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE AND ISENT LIFT AT                 
NOSE OF DECENT LLJ. GULF MOISTURE STILL WAY S...AND LOW-LEVEL                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS THE AREA NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE. BUT ENOUGH                   
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING BAND OF SNOW NWD ACRS THE AREA THIS                  
MORNING. THINK THAT WL BE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL. THEN EXPECT              
A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATER THIS MORNING. THAT/S ABOUT AS FAR AS WE               
GET BEFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST TAKES A REAL NOSE-DIVE. OVERALL...            
MODELS SUGGEST PCPN WL INCR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/2 OF THE FCST                 
AREA AGAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW                
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER               
BACK TO THE NW. THEN SOME MODELS...MAINLY THE RUC AND HIGHER                    
RESOLUTION MESO-MODELS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...INDICATE PCPN OVER                
THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA COULD JUST KEEP GOING UNTIL FINAL                
SHRTWV AND DEEPENING SFC SYSTEM RACE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW                
AFTN. THEN AGAIN...SOME OF THE MODELS DON/T GENERATE MUCH IN THE                
WAY OF PCPN AT ALL WITH SYSTEM TOMORROW. NEW GFS AND UKMET PRETTY               
IMPRESSIVE WITH QG FORCING OVER E-C WI. ECMWF HAS SYSTEM...BUT HAS              
BACKED AWAY SOMDWHAT FM IT/S EARLIER FCSTS. WAS REALLY HOPING TO                
GET MORE OF A CONSENSUS ON THE SYSTEM NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN 48                 
HRS OF THE EVENT. MY FEELING RIGHT NOW IS THAT IT WL BE AN ADVISORY-            
TYPE EVENT. BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT...PLUS I DON/T HAVE A                 
REAL GOOD COURSE OF ACTION IF I PULL THE WATCH. I WOULDN/T WANT TO              
JUST DROP IT...SINCE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY SNOW. DON/T WANT              
TO HAVE A SECOND ADVISORY STARTING LESS THAN 12 HOURS AFTER FIRST               
EXPIRES...AND DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SIG PRECIP JUST                   
CONTINUING TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY THOUGH TOMORROW. SO...WE/LL               
JUST KEEP THE WATCH. WITH PLENTY OF TRAVEL OCCURRING TOMORROW...IT              
WON/T BE A BAD THINK TO KEEP THE POTENTAIL FOR MORE SNOW TOMORROW               
FRONT AND CENTER...EVEN THOUGH I SHADED BACK ON AMNTS AND NOW AM A              
LITTLE BLO WARNING CRITERIA.                                                    
LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT                
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT FRIDAY                      
ONWARD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM              
TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES.  NO ONE MODEL STANDS OUT AT THIS                     
PARTICULAR TIME...SO INCORPORATED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF                  
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TREND TOWARD MORE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.  IN               
THE END...GENERAL NEG PNA PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WILL SEE MORE            
OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP BY END OF THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL RAPIDLY        
MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC DURING THE EVENING.  NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW               
WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY THE START OF THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...OP                 
MODELS POINT TOWARDS LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN THE BACK EDGE OF            
THE COMMA HEAD STILL AFFECTING THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.  AS A             
RESULT...STILL TOO EARLY TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR             
FLURRIES FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND PERHAPS OVER               
VILAS AS WELL BEFORE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE WEST.  SKIES WILL                 
CLEAR HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW LEVEL               
RIDGE AXIS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY              
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES             
ESTABLISHED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING POORLY AS OF LATE                   
CAPTURING THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES.  HAVE BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A             
FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY...FIGURING VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS ON AREA              
SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.                                 
REST OF THE FORECAST...LARGELY DEPENDANT UPON TRACK OF THE SURFACE              
LOW...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARM AIR REACHES OUR NECK OF THE            
WOODS.  A SHORTWAVE STILL WAY OUT IN THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIVE SE INTO            
THE MEAN WESTERN NOAM TROUGH AND THEN EJECT NE TOWARDS THE GREAT                
LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY JUST STARTING TO             
GET REASONABLY SAMPLED BY THE ALASKAN UPPER AIR NETWORK THIS                    
EVENING.  REGARDLESS...00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT            
TRACKING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH               
PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...12Z GFS ENSEMBLE             
MEMBERS TAKE THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER SOUTHERN LAKE                    
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SO STILL QUITE A BIT OF                 
SPREAD AMONGST THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO             
THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF.                                                
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL PUSH A              
POCKET OF MODERATE 700-500MB -DIVQ AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM SW TO             
NE THURSDAY NIGHT.  DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH MIXING                 
RATIOS APPROACH 3 G/KG WILL SURGE NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SATURATION            
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  MODEL QPFS SUGGEST               
THIS WILL LEAD TO A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL AT BEST WITH THE HIGHEST                  
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH.                                                         
LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON FRIDAY WITH INDICATIONS OF MID-LEVEL                  
MOISTURE STRIPPING OUT WHILE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES DOWN             
LOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  EVEN THE GFS            
ENSEMBLE SHOWS 30-40KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY BOOST 850MB              
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C.  THE QUESTION IS HOW WELL WILL                  
SURFACE TEMPS RESPOND GIVEN SNOWPACK ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL             
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI?  00Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SEVERAL               
HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY AS AN ABOVE 0C WARM              
LAYER DEVELOPS ALOFT BEFORE BL TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TYPE TO             
BE ALL LIQUID.  TOUGH TO GET CUTE WITH PRECIP TYPE THIS FAR OUT                 
GIVEN CHANGES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK/TIMING ARE EXPECTED.  SO WILL GO             
WITH A MIXED BAG FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING THE SE            
FORECAST AREA TO ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.                                     
FROPA IS PROGGED TO OCCUR SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN EVENTUAL                
TRANSITION FROM RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO MIXED PRECIP/SNOW.  SOME PRECIP            
MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES.  AIR BEHIND              
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD...SO WILL PORTRAY TEMPS NEAR THE                 
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.                                              
LATEST 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A NW TREND WITH THE SURFACE            
LOW...AND MUCH WARMER 850MB TEMPS WORKING INTO NE WISCONSIN.  AS                
MENTIONED EARLIER...PLENTY OF CHANGES IN THE TRACK/TIMING OVER THE              
NEXT FEW DAYS.  TRIED MY BEST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...AND NOT STRAY             
TOO FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                             
AVIATION...CIGS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT SLOW TO COME DOWN. BUT WITH                  
CONTD WAA...EVEN THOUGH WEAK MUCH OF THE TIME...WOULD EXPECT SOLID              
LOWER CLOUD DECK TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA.                
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-                 
038>040-048>050.                                                                
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR WIZ022-038>040-048>050.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi