AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                             
 305 PM MST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                                        
 SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES AND               
 AMOUNTS.                                                                       
 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING              
 WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH ONE WEAK SHORT              
 WAVE SHEARING APART AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS ANOTHER              
 STRONGER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS             
 THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ATTM. WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATING SUBTROPICAL             
 MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF OLD UPPER              
 LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION.                                           
 MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH WEATHER DETAILS WITH INCREASING                  
 WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AS CENTRAL CANADIAN               
 SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT JET CORE DIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
 GREAT BASIN CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES             
 TONIGHT. THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE            
 STATE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TROUGH AXIS PROGGED ACROSS           
 CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z THU.                                                   
 FOR TONIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PROGGED           
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD              
 WITH BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS AND SOUTHERN TIER           
 ZONES WITH PROXIMITY TO SUBTROPICAL PLUME. OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL               
 YIELDING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS                    
 OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING ASCENT           
 AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGH...HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FROM 06Z WED               
 THROUGH 06Z THU FOR ZONES 66 AND 68. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP            
 LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL WITH INCREASING WESTERLY           
 FLOW...THOUGH AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LEAST               
 UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN A CHALLENGE WITH               
 DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOME INCREASING HIGH            
 CLOUDS TO HELP KEEP TEMPS UP...HOWEVER DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A              
 WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE COLD AND SNOW COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE               
 LOWER ARKANSAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL TANK BEFORE STEADYING OUT              
 OR WARMING INTO THE EARLY MORNING.                                             
 WEDNESDAY...PASSING TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER FRONT AND RE-ENFORCING                
 SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY                      
 MORNING...WITH FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 15Z AND              
 17Z AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LIFT            
 AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE  REGION AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS HAVE           
 GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND                    
 IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR                
 EASTERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH          
 POTENTIAL WITH TEMPS BETWEEN -14C AND -20C WITHIN THE MOIST                    
 LAYER...WITH LATER SHIFTS POSSIBLY HOISTING HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS                  
 THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS WITH SNOW ACCUMS BETWEEN 4-8 INCHES                
 POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING               
 WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS BY THE LATE MORNING WITH DECREASING                      
 TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -MW                                        
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (WED NIGHT THROUGH TUE)                                                        
 ...WINTRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUN...                        
 ...PREPARE NOW FOR EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FRI-WEEKEND...                  
 WED NIGHT AND THU...THE COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND YET               
 ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLUFFY               
 SNOWFALL AND COLD TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO                
 RANGE FROM -12C TO -15C. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT            
 TO SQUEEZE OUT SNOWFLAKES FROM THE CLOUD COVER. COULD SEE ANOTHER              
 3-5 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER                  
 ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO. MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY           
 FOR OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH WED            
 EVENING...IF THE POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT STILL LOOKS GOOD. IT APPEARS             
 THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT AND COULD           
 PICKUP AGAIN AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THU AFTERNOON. THERE                
 COULD BE A BRIEF RESPITE OF THE FLUFFY SNOW POTENTIAL ON THU UNTIL             
 THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES AIM FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. I           
 HAVE INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS               
 HIGHER TERRAIN WED EVENING GIVEN THE SNOW ADVISORY. ALSO...INCREASED           
 POPS TO HIGH "CHANCE" AND "LIKELY" FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                    
 MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR FOR WED EVENING. DECREASED OR REMOVED              
 POPS FOR THU...BUT MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AROUND THE CONTINENTAL             
 DIVIDE.                                                                        
 FRI THROUGH SUN...DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE POLAR LOW              
 OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE HAS BEEN                   
 RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THIS PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR LATE THIS           
 WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWED THE 06Z/30 DGEX GIVEN THE FINER                
 TERRAIN RESOLUTION. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -18C             
 TO -28C FRI AND SLIGHTLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH AND LOW             
 TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SUB-ZERO VALUES FOR OUR MOUNTAINS           
 AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS           
 WILL RANGE FROM SUB-ZERO VALUES INTO THE TEENS. FRI COULD BE A                 
 BRUTAL DAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND THERMAL                    
 STRUCTURE PROJECTED FOR FRI-SAT...HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LIKELY              
 20-1 TO 40-1...SO JUST A MINUTE AMOUNT OF QPF COULD PRODUCE 1-6                
 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH "CHANCE" FOR THE                 
 MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR ON FRI...AND CONTINUED "SLIGHT CHANCE"             
 TO NO MENTION OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE ALL              
 THAT STRONG...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND SPEED TO DROP THE WIND                
 CHILL VALUES GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES.  WIND CHILL                
 READINGS OF -25F TO -35F IN THE MOUNTAINS AND -20F TO 0F WILL BE               
 COMMON FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                
 MON AND TUE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROJECTING NORTHWEST FLOW TO                 
 DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE EXTREMELY COLD LONGWAVE TROUGH                 
 MIGRATES EASTWARD. A BIG CHALLENGE IF AND WHEN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR         
 MASS WILL RECEDE ACROSS EASTERN CO. AGAIN...FOLLOWED THE 06Z/30 DGEX           
 FINER TERRAIN RESOLUTION MODULE. WILL PLAY A MODERATING TEMPERATURE            
 TREND...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO           
 GIVEN THE 1-2 FEET OF SNOW PACK...AND POSSIBLY MORE...THAT WILL BE OVER        
 THIS AREA. MOS/HPC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN 10-20 DEGREES TOO WARM IN THESE           
 DENSE SNOW PACK AREAS. IT HAS BEEN SEVERAL WEEKS SINCE KLAA WAS 35F            
 OR GREATER...SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE UNTIL THEY             
 REACH ABOVE 35F. METZE                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR               
 COZ066-068.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 23/17                                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                             
 309 PM MST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                                          
 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES...                    
 ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW PACK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL LATER               
 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                                           
 CURRENTLY...BLAZING SUNSHINE ACROSS CO AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL                 
 ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO WARM OVER THE DENSE              
 SNOW PACK AND VALLEYS DESPITE THE FULL SUNSHINE. KLAA AND KALS ARE             
 STRUGGLING TO REACH 20F EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR               
 IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED A CLOSED LOW JUST              
 OFF THE CA COASTLINE AND THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM ACROSS OLD MEXICO             
 INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER            
 LEVEL JET STREAK WAS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA              
 INTO ID/MT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.               
 THERE IS A COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE             
 TROUGH ACROSS NERN UT...SWRN WY...AND NWRN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.            
 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE 12KM WRF AND 40KM GFS ARE LIKE NIGHT AND             
 DAY IN TERMS OF QPF BEING GENERATED LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE             
 12KM WRF PRINTS OUT RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SPARSE QPF...WHILE THE                
 GFS HAS A LITTLE BROADER COVERAGE OF QPF. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING              
 VERY LITTLE IMPLIED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT TO FOCUS ON QPF BULLSEYES            
 ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS A HINT OF SOME MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL              
 IMPLIED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...BUT IT GOES IN AND OUT OF THE MODEL           
 RUNS THROUGH TIME. LAPSE RATES IN THE "MOIST" LAYER IS FORECAST TO             
 BE 7-8 C/KM AND MUCH OF THE "BEST" MOISTURE IS NEAR THE SFC TO H7.             
 IF WE CAN JUXTAPOSE THE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL UPWARD FORCING...             
 INSTABILITY...AND ANY OROGRAPHICS...THEN IT COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME             
 SNOWFLAKES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE               
 HIGHER POPS IS A CHALLENGE. WILL TWEAK POPS UP A LITTLE FOR TELLER             
 AND EL PASO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BASED ON BOU/S FORECAST.                    
 OTHERWISE...NOT PLANNING TO CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH GIVEN MUCH                
 UNCERTAINTY. WONDERING IF THIS EVENT WILL BE MUCH LIKE SAT/S                   
 SOMEWHAT NON-EVENT EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS NEAR OUR ERN           
 MOUNTAINS(E.G. 1-2 INCHES). IF THE SNOW CAN MANAGE TO BE                       
 CREATED...THEN IT SHOULD BE PRETTY FLUFFY CONSIDERING THE THERMAL              
 STRUCTURE AND INSTABILITY. 20-1 RATIOS WOULD BE COMMON AND RESULTING           
 IN 1-3 INCHES WITH LOW WATER CONTENT. WILL ADD SOME PRECIPITATION              
 INTENSITY VALUE TO THE FORECAST SINCE THE POTENTIAL EVENT WOULD BE             
 LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT BEST TONIGHT. TEMPERATUREWISE...MODEL MOS            
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE HORRIBLE OVER THE SNOW PACK/VALLEY AREAS.             
 PLAN TO UNDERCUT MOS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR KLAA...KLHX...AND KALS. ON            
 TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD RE-ENFORCE THE COLD AIR               
 ACROSS MUCH OF S CNTRL AND SE CO. METZE                                        
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                                 
 LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TEMPERATURES AND TIMING PRECIP CHANCES AS            
 OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.                  
 TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS COMING CLOSER ON                 
 NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DETAILS WITH INCREASING WEST TO                   
 NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS            
 NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MOVEMENT OF            
 NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM KEEPS THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND WEAKENING OLD             
 NORTHERN BAJA UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND ALSO SENDS               
 COLD FRONT AND RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO           
 WEDNESDAY. AT ANY RATE...WITH PROXIMITY TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND            
 LIFT ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OROGRAPHIC FLOW...SHOULD SEE SNOW                   
 DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH 4 TO 8              
 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW               
 DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS               
 MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF TROUGH...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS             
 LOOK TO  STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM. MODELS ALSO IN DECENT                
 AGREEMENT OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS                 
 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMBINES            
 WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE BEHIND PASSING FRONT.           
 WITH TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN -14C AND -20C WITHIN THE MOISTURE                   
 LAYER...COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS BY EARLY              
 THURSDAY MORNING.                                                              
 THURSDAY-SATURDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AGAIN THROUGH            
 THE DAY THURSDAY AS NEXT 140+ KT JET CORE DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND              
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AGAIN MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH               
 SLIGHT WARMUP AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY            
 BEFORE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON              
 FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT BEST POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY WITH               
 INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND           
 FRIDAY WITH PASSING FRONT. HAVE GONE WELL BELOW CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE           
 FOR HIGHS...AND IF LATEST MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH H7 AND H85 TEMPS             
 BETWEEN -18C AND -24C AND -8C AND -16C RESPECTIVELY...SOME AREAS               
 WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ON FRIDAY. WITH                  
 MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ON SATURDAY...HAVE LOWERED                  
 FORECAST TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH BEST POPS ACROSS THE                 
 CENTRAL MTS WITH CONTINUED OROGRAPHICS.                                        
 SUNDAY-MONDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH             
 MARKED WARMING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING               
 BUILDS INTO THE STATE. -MW                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 17/23                                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 1045 AM CST MON JAN 29 2007                                                    
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 UPDATING FORECAST TODAY STRONGER WSW WINDS TO BRISK LEVELS.                    
 OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND ONLY TWEAKED THE                 
 HOURLY GRIDS TODAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...WILL             
 SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN ESPECIALLY NW AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE             
 CHANCE OF FLURRIES. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S...EXPECT           
 UPPER 20S NORTH OF I-74. BRISK WSW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTING              
 AROUND 30 MPH...SIMILIAR TO PAST FEW DAYS.                                     
 16Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MS           
 WHILE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW WI. THIS LOW HAD A WARM                 
 FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IL WHILE ITS COLD FRONT WAS OVER SE            
 MN FAR NW IA AND SE NEBRASKA. BRISK WSW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS IL           
 WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...EVEN 34 MPH GUST AT DANVILLE. AREA OF             
 LIGHT SNOW EXIT EASTCENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LARGE BREAK            
 IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL IL. TEMPS MODERATED INTO THE 20S               
 WITH COOLEST READINGS NE. ALOFT A 517 DM 500 MB CUTOFF LOW WAS OVER            
 THE UPPER MS VALLEY NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL             
 TROF EAST OF THE ROCKIES.                                                      
 RUC AND NAM/WRF MOVE LOW PRESSURE INTO LOW MI THIS EVENING WITH ITS            
 ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS IL THEN. MOST OF THE LIGHT              
 SNOW WILL STAY NORTH OF CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLURRIES                
 POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NW OF LINCOLN. CLOUDS OVER IOWA WILL             
 SPREAD SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES BECOME              
 MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NW AREAS BECOMING CLOUDY. WSW WINDS AND SOME                
 SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP ELEVATE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S MOST AREAS               
 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE JAN.                          
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH             
 PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.  ONE FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL             
 SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE A SECOND WILL COME THROUGH            
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE POPS AND MINOR SNOW                    
 ACCUMULATIONS WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS.                                         
 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN                 
 MINNESOTA...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS.  COLD             
 FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO           
 THE DAKOTAS.  ALOFT...WESTERN CONUS REX BLOCKING CONTINUES...WITH              
 LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  A SERIES OF WEAK                   
 DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA IN BROAD                 
 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  ONE WAVE IS EVIDENT            
 IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS IOWA...WHILE A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE           
 IS DROPPING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.                                                 
 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                        
 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK E/SE TODAY...REACHING CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY              
 00Z TUE.  BEST LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR WAA SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE            
 SYSTEM WILL LARGELY STAY NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...WITH                
 PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN KILX CWA.  LATEST             
 SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A SWATH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH           
 THE WARM FRONT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN                     
 ILLINOIS.  MEANWHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM...SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS           
 WESTERN IOWA.  THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS              
 MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS           
 AFTERNOON.  WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH SW LOW-LEVEL                   
 FLOW...TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE               
 SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.  WILL FOLLOW THE FWC NUMERIC GUIDANCE MOST            
 CLOSELY AS IT HAS BEEN SUPERIOR FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...TAKING HIGHS           
 TODAY MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.                                               
 SECOND STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL APPROACH THE             
 AREA THIS EVENING...SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.              
 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS                       
 SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM-WRF BEING A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH QPF/SNOW               
 ACCUMULATIONS THAN THE GFS.  BASED ON CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS           
 SHOWING VSBYS AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT TIMES...THINK A LIGHT ACCUMULATION            
 OF SNOW IS IN ORDER ACROSS PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  PATH OF THE              
 VORT MAX SUGGESTS THE BEST BET FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE ACROSS              
 THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA.  A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH           
 WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS AREA...WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF                        
 ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH STRETCHING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF             
 I-74.  FURTHER SOUTH...LITTLE OR NO SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF I-70.              
 COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE                    
 DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE                
 LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.  AFTER THAT...A SLIGHT WARM-UP WILL BE ON TAP             
 FOR WEDNESDAY...AS YET ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM              
 THE WEST.  WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY             
 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BULK OF PRECIP NOT ARRIVING UNTIL                   
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR                         
 TONIGHT...THIS ONE MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ACROSS             
 CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THURSDAY                               
 MORNING.                                                                       
 LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                         
 NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...AS GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN            
 REMAINS UNCHANGED.  LATEST GFS IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH            
 THE CANADIAN/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM            
 TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  MODEL CONSENSUS NOW              
 TAKES BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...WITH ANY                   
 CYCLOGENESIS STAYING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP CENTRAL ILLINOIS COLD            
 AND DRY.  CURRENT GRIDS HANDLE THE SITUATION WELL...SO NO CHANGES              
 MADE AT THIS TIME.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BARNES                                                                         
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 226 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 NEXT MESO VORT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SHOULD                   
 EVENTUALLY TURN SE. LATEST NAM/WRF WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD                
 HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE ALREADY STARTING           
 TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SBN AND FWA SHOULD BE            
 WITHIN OR CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SO HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE            
 SOME TIMING HERE. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE SW OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW            
 DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OR ENDING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN            
 SOME AS IT MOVE FARTHER INLAND.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 HAVE UPDATED FOR SMALL LOW/MESO LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORT           
 TERM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING SE OVER FAR               
 SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SBN MEDIA REPORTED               
 AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO WEEKEND BERRIEN COUNTY SNOWFALL RATES OF 5 INCHES           
 IN 3 HOURS. WITH LIGHTER/DRIER SNOW AND WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...PLENTY            
 OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALREADY AND SHOULD PERSIST. EXPECT                
 SNOWFALL TO DROP OFF AS MESO LOW MOVES DEEPER INLAND. GIVEN ANOTHER            
 IN A SERIES OF MESO LOWS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...HAVE            
 ADDED A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...                
 ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON              
 BETWEEN SYSTEMS... EXCEPT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE               
 MICHIGAN.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                             
 WILL BE USING THE LATEST RUC AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST           
 AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE             
 SITUATION.                                                                     
 SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACRS THE WRN GREAT               
 LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MICHIGAN WITH A           
 COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO WRN INDIANA...THEN BACK INTO             
 THE SRN PLAINS.  THE MAIN SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY             
 EAST THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING A              
 DECENT SIZE OF SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS            
 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW WAS LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS               
 INDICATED BY THE 08Z KFWA OBSERVATION WHICH REPORTED AN INCH IN ONE            
 HOUR.  THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND               
 SHOULD BE EXISTING THE ERN FCST AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM.  TO THE               
 WEST...AN UPR LVL VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL.  THIS FEATURE              
 WILL SWEEP ACRS NRN INDIANA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BRINING A ROUND OF           
 SNOW SHOWERS.  TO ADD TO THE MIX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL               
 DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AS THE MEAN LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO A 290                      
 DIRECTION.  MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD           
 PCPN...EXCEPT IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS OF MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN               
 INDIANA...BY THIS AFTN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THIS ATTM.  GUSTY            
 WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF             
 SNOW...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE ZONES ACRS NRN INDIANA...SRN                 
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE            
 FROM AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH TO 4 INCHES IN BERRIEN AND CASS                  
 COUNTIES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.            
 FOR TONIGHT...MEAN LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE                 
 NORTHWEST...ABOUT 300 DEGREES.  ONE LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING.                      
 THEREAFTER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND DRIER AIR               
 WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO CAUSE THE LAKE            
 EFFECT PCPN TO DWINDLE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.  WILL RAISE           
 POPS ACRS THE MICHIGAN/FAR NRN INDIANA COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN                
 ANTICIPATION OF THE LAST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN.  ADDITIONAL                
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE SOUTH (FLURRIES) TO 1 TO 2            
 INCHES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.  SINCE POPS WILL BE             
 RAISED TO LIKELY ACRS THE NORTH...WILL EXTEND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 ADVISORY FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO 06Z...OR 1 AM EDT.  TOTAL            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ACRS THE                   
 ADVISORY AREA.                                                                 
 AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THEY WILL BE TRICKY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL               
 CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY MID MORNING            
 ACRS THE SWRN CWFA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWNWIND OF              
 LAKE MICHIGAN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE IS EXPECTED            
 THIS AFTN.  FOR TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS            
 MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE. WHERE TEMPS           
 WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.                                      
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                      
 THE ARCTIC EXPRESS CONTINUES TO BE THE WX FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST           
 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE THE              
 RULE.                                                                          
 FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE IN SOLUTION...SO NO                
 REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. AS POLAR VORTEX                
 GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...SURGES OF COLDER AIR              
 CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE COLD            
 AIR CONTINUES TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE            
 WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA...A VERY           
 UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE                 
 AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...MOST PERIODS HAVE A MENTION OF               
 SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                              
 COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.              
 WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND STRONG CAA...MIN TEMPS COULD APPROACH OR             
 FALL BELOW ZERO AND MAXS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY                   
      FOR INZ004>009-016>018.                                                   
 MI...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR               
      MIZ079>081.                                                               
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                     
 MIZ077-078.                                                                    
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...SKIPPER                                                           
 AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                             
 LONG TERM....EDDY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 1150 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 HAVE UPDATED FOR SMALL LOW/MESO LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORT           
 TERM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING SE OVER FAR               
 SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SBN MEDIA REPORTED               
 AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO WEEKEND BERRIEN COUNTY SNOWFALL RATES OF 5 INCHES           
 IN 3 HOURS. WITH LIGHTER/DRIER SNOW AND WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...PLENTY            
 OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALREADY AND SHOULD PERSIST. EXPECT                
 SNOWFALL TO DROP OFF AS MESO LOW MOVES DEEPER INLAND. GIVEN ANOTHER            
 IN A SERIES OF MESO LOWS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...HAVE            
 ADDED A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...                
 ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON              
 BETWEEN SYSTEMS... EXCEPT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE               
 MICHIGAN.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 AN UPR LVL VORT MAX AND ASSOCD SFC TROF WILL MOVE ACRS NRN INDIANA             
 BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.  LATEST KIWX RADAR INDICATED A LOW LVL                    
 MESOSCALE LAKE MICHIGAN VORTICITY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER                  
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DROP             
 VSBYS TO A 1/2SM MILE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT KSBN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY           
 SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KSBN             
 UNTIL THIS EVENING.  FOR KFWA...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED                
 THROUGH 15Z...THEN VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO P6SM WITH ONLY A SCATTERING           
 OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.                                         
 FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER SFC TROF AND LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS           
 FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE KSBN TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  WILL             
 INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  LAKE               
 EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AND WILL PUSH NORTH              
 INTO MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z.                                                       
 SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z               
 WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                             
 WILL BE USING THE LATEST RUC AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST           
 AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE             
 SITUATION.                                                                     
 SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACRS THE WRN GREAT               
 LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MICHIGAN WITH A           
 COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO WRN INDIANA...THEN BACK INTO             
 THE SRN PLAINS.  THE MAIN SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY             
 EAST THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING A              
 DECENT SIZE OF SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS            
 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW WAS LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS               
 INDICATED BY THE 08Z KFWA OBSERVATION WHICH REPORTED AN INCH IN ONE            
 HOUR.  THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND               
 SHOULD BE EXISTING THE ERN FCST AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM.  TO THE               
 WEST...AN UPR LVL VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL.  THIS FEATURE              
 WILL SWEEP ACRS NRN INDIANA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BRINING A ROUND OF           
 SNOW SHOWERS.  TO ADD TO THE MIX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL               
 DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AS THE MEAN LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO A 290                      
 DIRECTION.  MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD           
 PCPN...EXCEPT IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS OF MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN               
 INDIANA...BY THIS AFTN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THIS ATTM.  GUSTY            
 WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF             
 SNOW...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE ZONES ACRS NRN INDIANA...SRN                 
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE            
 FROM AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH TO 4 INCHES IN BERRIEN AND CASS                  
 COUNTIES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.            
 FOR TONIGHT...MEAN LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE                 
 NORTHWEST...ABOUT 300 DEGREES.  ONE LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING.                      
 THEREAFTER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND DRIER AIR               
 WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO CAUSE THE LAKE            
 EFFECT PCPN TO DWINDLE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.  WILL RAISE           
 POPS ACRS THE MICHIGAN/FAR NRN INDIANA COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN                
 ANTICIPATION OF THE LAST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN.  ADDITIONAL                
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE SOUTH (FLURRIES) TO 1 TO 2            
 INCHES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.  SINCE POPS WILL BE             
 RAISED TO LIKELY ACRS THE NORTH...WILL EXTEND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 ADVISORY FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO 06Z...OR 1 AM EDT.  TOTAL            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ACRS THE                   
 ADVISORY AREA.                                                                 
 AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THEY WILL BE TRICKY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL               
 CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY MID MORNING            
 ACRS THE SWRN CWFA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWNWIND OF              
 LAKE MICHIGAN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE IS EXPECTED            
 THIS AFTN.  FOR TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS            
 MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE. WHERE TEMPS           
 WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.                                      
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                      
 THE ARCTIC EXPRESS CONTINUES TO BE THE WX FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST           
 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE THE              
 RULE.                                                                          
 FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE IN SOLUTION...SO NO                
 REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. AS POLAR VORTEX                
 GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...SURGES OF COLDER AIR              
 CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE COLD            
 AIR CONTINUES TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE            
 WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA...A VERY           
 UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE                 
 AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...MOST PERIODS HAVE A MENTION OF               
 SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                              
 COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.              
 WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND STRONG CAA...MIN TEMPS COULD APPROACH OR             
 FALL BELOW ZERO AND MAXS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY                   
      FOR INZ004>009-016>018.                                                   
 MI...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR               
      MIZ079>081.                                                               
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                     
 MIZ077-078.                                                                    
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...SKIPPER                                                           
 AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                             
 LONG TERM....EDDY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 635 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 AN UPR LVL VORT MAX AND ASSOCD SFC TROF WILL MOVE ACRS NRN INDIANA             
 BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.  LATEST KIWX RADAR INDICATED A LOW LVL                    
 MESOSCALE LAKE MICHIGAN VORTICITY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER                  
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DROP             
 VSBYS TO A 1/2SM MILE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT KSBN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY           
 SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KSBN             
 UNTIL THIS EVENING.  FOR KFWA...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED                
 THROUGH 15Z...THEN VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO P6SM WITH ONLY A SCATTERING           
 OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.                                         
 FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER SFC TROF AND LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS           
 FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE KSBN TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  WILL             
 INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  LAKE               
 EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AND WILL PUSH NORTH              
 INTO MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z.                                                       
 SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z               
 WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                             
 WILL BE USING THE LATEST RUC AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST           
 AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE             
 SITUATION.                                                                     
 SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACRS THE WRN GREAT               
 LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MICHIGAN WITH A           
 COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO WRN INDIANA...THEN BACK INTO             
 THE SRN PLAINS.  THE MAIN SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY             
 EAST THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING A              
 DECENT SIZE OF SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS            
 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW WAS LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS               
 INDICATED BY THE 08Z KFWA OBSERVATION WHICH REPORTED AN INCH IN ONE            
 HOUR.  THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND               
 SHOULD BE EXISTING THE ERN FCST AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM.  TO THE               
 WEST...AN UPR LVL VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL.  THIS FEATURE              
 WILL SWEEP ACRS NRN INDIANA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BRINING A ROUND OF           
 SNOW SHOWERS.  TO ADD TO THE MIX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL               
 DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AS THE MEAN LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO A 290                      
 DIRECTION.  MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD           
 PCPN...EXCEPT IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS OF MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN               
 INDIANA...BY THIS AFTN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THIS ATTM.  GUSTY            
 WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF             
 SNOW...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE ZONES ACRS NRN INDIANA...SRN                 
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE            
 FROM AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH TO 4 INCHES IN BERRIEN AND CASS                  
 COUNTIES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.            
 FOR TONIGHT...MEAN LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE                 
 NORTHWEST...ABOUT 300 DEGREES.  ONE LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING.                      
 THEREAFTER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND DRIER AIR               
 WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO CAUSE THE LAKE            
 EFFECT PCPN TO DWINDLE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.  WILL RAISE           
 POPS ACRS THE MICHIGAN/FAR NRN INDIANA COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN                
 ANTICIPATION OF THE LAST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN.  ADDITIONAL                
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE SOUTH (FLURRIES) TO 1 TO 2            
 INCHES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.  SINCE POPS WILL BE             
 RAISED TO LIKELY ACRS THE NORTH...WILL EXTEND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 ADVISORY FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO 06Z...OR 1 AM EDT.  TOTAL            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ACRS THE                   
 ADVISORY AREA.                                                                 
 AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THEY WILL BE TRICKY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL               
 CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY MID MORNING            
 ACRS THE SWRN CWFA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWNWIND OF              
 LAKE MICHIGAN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE IS EXPECTED            
 THIS AFTN.  FOR TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS            
 MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE. WHERE TEMPS           
 WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.                                      
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                      
 THE ARCTIC EXPRESS CONTINUES TO BE THE WX FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST           
 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE THE              
 RULE.                                                                          
 FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE IN SOLUTION...SO NO                
 REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. AS POLAR VORTEX                
 GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...SURGES OF COLDER AIR              
 CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE COLD            
 AIR CONTINUES TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE            
 WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA...A VERY           
 UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE                 
 AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...MOST PERIODS HAVE A MENTION OF               
 SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                              
 COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.              
 WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND STRONG CAA...MIN TEMPS COULD APPROACH OR             
 FALL BELOW ZERO AND MAXS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077-            
      078.                                                                      
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                  
 LONG TERM....EDDY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 404 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                             
 WILL BE USING THE LATEST RUC AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST           
 AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE             
 SITUATION.                                                                     
 SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACRS THE WRN GREAT               
 LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MICHIGAN WITH A           
 COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO WRN INDIANA...THEN BACK INTO             
 THE SRN PLAINS.  THE MAIN SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY             
 EAST THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING A              
 DECENT SIZE OF SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS            
 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW WAS LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS               
 INDICATED BY THE 08Z KFWA OBSERVATION WHICH REPORTED AN INCH IN ONE            
 HOUR.  THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND               
 SHOULD BE EXISTING THE ERN FCST AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM.  TO THE               
 WEST...AN UPR LVL VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL.  THIS FEATURE              
 WILL SWEEP ACRS NRN INDIANA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BRINING A ROUND OF           
 SNOW SHOWERS.  TO ADD TO THE MIX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL               
 DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AS THE MEAN LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO A 290                      
 DIRECTION.  MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD           
 PCPN...EXCEPT IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS OF MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN               
 INDIANA...BY THIS AFTN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THIS ATTM.  GUSTY            
 WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF             
 SNOW...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE ZONES ACRS NRN INDIANA...SRN                 
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE            
 FROM AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH TO 4 INCHES IN BERRIEN AND CASS                  
 COUNTIES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.            
 FOR TONIGHT...MEAN LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE                 
 NORTHWEST...ABOUT 300 DEGREES.  ONE LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING.                      
 THEREAFTER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND DRIER AIR               
 WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO CAUSE THE LAKE            
 EFFECT PCPN TO DWINDLE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.  WILL RAISE           
 POPS ACRS THE MICHIGAN/FAR NRN INDIANA COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN                
 ANTICIPATION OF THE LAST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN.  ADDITIONAL                
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE SOUTH (FLURRIES) TO 1 TO 2            
 INCHES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.  SINCE POPS WILL BE             
 RAISED TO LIKELY ACRS THE NORTH...WILL EXTEND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 ADVISORY FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO 06Z...OR 1 AM EDT.  TOTAL            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ACRS THE                   
 ADVISORY AREA.                                                                 
 AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THEY WILL BE TRICKY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL               
 CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY MID MORNING            
 ACRS THE SWRN CWFA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWNWIND OF              
 LAKE MICHIGAN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE IS EXPECTED            
 THIS AFTN.  FOR TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS            
 MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE. WHERE TEMPS           
 WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                      
 THE ARCTIC EXPRESS CONTINUES TO BE THE WX FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST           
 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE THE              
 RULE.                                                                          
 FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE IN SOLUTION...SO NO                
 REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. AS POLAR VORTEX                
 GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...SURGES OF COLDER AIR              
 CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE COLD            
 AIR CONTINUES TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE            
 WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA...A VERY           
 UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE                 
 AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...MOST PERIODS HAVE A MENTION OF               
 SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                              
 COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.              
 WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND STRONG CAA...MIN TEMPS COULD APPROACH OR             
 FALL BELOW ZERO AND MAXS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1229 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                           
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT                  
 LAKES THROUGH 12Z...THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT                  
 LAKES BY 18Z. SVRL UPR LVL WX DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY                
 THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF UPR LVL LIFT AND LOW LVL             
 CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO                
 NRN INDIANA ANS SUBSEQUENT TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.                     
 THEREAFTER...COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF               
 LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH                   
 SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE KSBN TAF SITE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE             
 EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR                     
 CONDITIONS BEYOND 15Z WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS                
 AROUND 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD                        
 FRONT...WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW TO OCCUR AT KSBN BEYOND             
 12Z.                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077-            
      078.                                                                      
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                  
 LONG TERM....EDDY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1220 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                        
 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 22KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD              
 FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL            
 DIMINISH AROUND 00Z. SCT TO BKN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SDF AND             
 LEX THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO             
 VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z.  --JA                    
 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                
 AT 16Z A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM WINCHESTER IN              
 CENTRAL KY TO GLASGOW. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED 5 TO 10 DEGREES JUST           
 AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOOKING UP STREAM READINGS WERE IN THE           
 TEENS. JUST LIKE SUNDAY... DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA.                                
 WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS                   
 AFTERNOON AS CU FIELD DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH STEEPENING            
 LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DOWNWARD TREND              
 EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE. UPDATED FORECAST OUT BY 1115. --JA                    
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                     
 CLIPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE THROUGH IOWA INTO IL/IN ATTM...WITH              
 ASSOC SFC TROF/FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR IND TO PAH AS OF 6Z.                 
 MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE              
 MID 20S. SCT SHSN HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...WITH           
 A FEW MOVING INTO THE LMK CWA AND AS FAR S AS NEAR LEITCHFIELD.                
 RECENT ACARS DATA AT KSDF SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...              
 HELPING PROMOTE THIS PRECIP.                                                   
 EXPECT ISLTD-SCT SHSN TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING                   
 HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA...DECREASING               
 SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW AMTS SHOULD BE MINOR AT BEST THOUGH SOME OF THE            
 SHSN HAVE BEEN INTENSE OVER IL/IN/OH BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITIES             
 NEAR 35DBZ OR HIGHER...SO IF SOME OF THESE WERE TO AFFECT OUR CWA              
 THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED ACCUMS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN A             
 SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO             
 THE MORNING DRIVE.                                                             
 BASED ON NAM/RUC...SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WRN COUNTIES AROUND             
 10-12Z...INTO ERN/SRN COUNTIES 12-14Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A             
 ROUND OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY. BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE GUSTS             
 TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM               
 OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS (EXCEPT             
 PERHAPS THE FAR SE COUNTIES). HAVE FOLLOWED A RUC/NAM BLEND FOR                
 TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
 CHANCES FOR SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN WITH STEEP LAPSE                  
 RATES...THOUGH FEEL THAT OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN IN THE              
 MORNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO           
 VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTN.           
 WILL WORD AFTERNOON POPS AS CHANCE VERSUS MORNING COVERAGE WORDING.            
 GUSTY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS              
 WIND CHILL VALUES THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY DROP            
 INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW NEAR-ZERO VALUES POSSIBLE. HAVE              
 ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DID NOT GO WITH COMPLETE             
 CLEARING SINCE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS SUGGEST AN AREA OF               
 3-5KFT CLOUDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6-9Z/WED (OVERNIGHT).            
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1105 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                
 AT 16Z A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM WINCHESTER IN              
 CENTRAL KY TO GLASGOW. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED 5 TO 10 DEGREES JUST           
 AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOOKING UP STREAM READINGS WERE IN THE           
 TEENS. JUST LIKE SUNDAY... DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA.                                
 WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS                   
 AFTERNOON AS CU FIELD DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH STEEPENING            
 LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DOWNWARD TREND              
 EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE. UPDATED FORECAST OUT BY 1115. --JA                    
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                     
 CLIPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE THROUGH IOWA INTO IL/IN ATTM...WITH              
 ASSOC SFC TROF/FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR IND TO PAH AS OF 6Z.                 
 MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE              
 MID 20S. SCT SHSN HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...WITH           
 A FEW MOVING INTO THE LMK CWA AND AS FAR S AS NEAR LEITCHFIELD.                
 RECENT ACARS DATA AT KSDF SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...              
 HELPING PROMOTE THIS PRECIP.                                                   
 EXPECT ISLTD-SCT SHSN TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING                   
 HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA...DECREASING               
 SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW AMTS SHOULD BE MINOR AT BEST THOUGH SOME OF THE            
 SHSN HAVE BEEN INTENSE OVER IL/IN/OH BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITIES             
 NEAR 35DBZ OR HIGHER...SO IF SOME OF THESE WERE TO AFFECT OUR CWA              
 THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED ACCUMS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN A             
 SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO             
 THE MORNING DRIVE.                                                             
 BASED ON NAM/RUC...SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WRN COUNTIES AROUND             
 10-12Z...INTO ERN/SRN COUNTIES 12-14Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A             
 ROUND OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY. BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE GUSTS             
 TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM               
 OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS (EXCEPT             
 PERHAPS THE FAR SE COUNTIES). HAVE FOLLOWED A RUC/NAM BLEND FOR                
 TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
 CHANCES FOR SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN WITH STEEP LAPSE                  
 RATES...THOUGH FEEL THAT OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN IN THE              
 MORNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO           
 VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTN.           
 WILL WORD AFTERNOON POPS AS CHANCE VERSUS MORNING COVERAGE WORDING.            
 GUSTY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS              
 WIND CHILL VALUES THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY DROP            
 INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW NEAR-ZERO VALUES POSSIBLE. HAVE              
 ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DID NOT GO WITH COMPLETE             
 CLEARING SINCE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS SUGGEST AN AREA OF               
 3-5KFT CLOUDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6-9Z/WED (OVERNIGHT).            
 CS                                                                             
 .AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                        
 COLD FRONT NOW ROLLING THROUGH THE LMK CWA AS OF 11Z...WITH WINDS AT           
 HNB SOLIDLY NW WHILE DIRECTIONS AT SDF/FTK SWITCHING SOON. WITH                
 FROPA...WE EXPECT WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS TO           
 20-25KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. SHSN ARE             
 WIDELY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT AND CIGS ARE VFR-MVFR UPSTREAM OVER             
 SRN IL AND SW IN. LATEST NAM SHOWS CIGS DROPPING TO AROUND 3000 FEET           
 THIS MORNING AT SDF/LEX...THEN RISING TO NEAR 5KFT WITH SKIES                  
 ACTUALLY GOING SCT (EVEN FEW OVER SRN KY).                                     
 -SHSN THREAT FOR THE TAF SITES SEEMS MINIMAL...WILL NOT MENTION IN             
 PREVAILING GROUPS AND HANDLE ANY -SHSN WITH TEMPO GROUPS IF                    
 NECESSARY. GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LOWER           
 CIGS (~2KFT) TONIGHT BETWEEN 0Z-6Z...AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                
 WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 3Z AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES               
 INTO THE REGION.                                                               
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 605 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                        
 COLD FRONT NOW ROLLING THROUGH THE LMK CWA AS OF 11Z...WITH WINDS AT           
 HNB SOLIDLY NW WHILE DIRECTIONS AT SDF/FTK SWITCHING SOON. WITH                
 FROPA...WE EXPECT WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS TO           
 20-25KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. SHSN ARE             
 WIDELY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT AND CIGS ARE VFR-MVFR UPSTREAM OVER             
 SRN IL AND SW IN. LATEST NAM SHOWS CIGS DROPPING TO AROUND 3000 FEET           
 THIS MORNING AT SDF/LEX...THEN RISING TO NEAR 5KFT WITH SKIES                  
 ACTUALLY GOING SCT (EVEN FEW OVER SRN KY).                                     
 -SHSN THREAT FOR THE TAF SITES SEEMS MINIMAL...WILL NOT MENTION IN             
 PREVAILING GROUPS AND HANDLE ANY -SHSN WITH TEMPO GROUPS IF                    
 NECESSARY. GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LOWER           
 CIGS (~2KFT) TONIGHT BETWEEN 0Z-6Z...AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                
 WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 3Z AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES               
 INTO THE REGION.                                                               
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                 
 CLIPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE THROUGH IOWA INTO IL/IN ATTM...WITH              
 ASSOC SFC TROF/FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR IND TO PAH AS OF 6Z.                 
 MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE              
 MID 20S. SCT SHSN HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...WITH           
 A FEW MOVING INTO THE LMK CWA AND AS FAR S AS NEAR LEITCHFIELD.                
 RECENT ACARS DATA AT KSDF SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...              
 HELPING PROMOTE THIS PRECIP.                                                   
 EXPECT ISLTD-SCT SHSN TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING                   
 HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA...DECREASING               
 SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW AMTS SHOULD BE MINOR AT BEST THOUGH SOME OF THE            
 SHSN HAVE BEEN INTENSE OVER IL/IN/OH BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITIES             
 NEAR 35DBZ OR HIGHER...SO IF SOME OF THESE WERE TO AFFECT OUR CWA              
 THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED ACCUMS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN A             
 SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO             
 THE MORNING DRIVE.                                                             
 BASED ON NAM/RUC...SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WRN COUNTIES AROUND             
 10-12Z...INTO ERN/SRN COUNTIES 12-14Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A             
 ROUND OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY. BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE GUSTS             
 TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM               
 OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS (EXCEPT             
 PERHAPS THE FAR SE COUNTIES). HAVE FOLLOWED A RUC/NAM BLEND FOR                
 TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
 CHANCES FOR SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN WITH STEEP LAPSE                  
 RATES...THOUGH FEEL THAT OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN IN THE              
 MORNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO           
 VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTN.           
 WILL WORD AFTERNOON POPS AS CHANCE VERSUS MORNING COVERAGE WORDING.            
 GUSTY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS              
 WIND CHILL VALUES THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY DROP            
 INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW NEAR-ZERO VALUES POSSIBLE. HAVE              
 ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DID NOT GO WITH COMPLETE             
 CLEARING SINCE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS SUGGEST AN AREA OF               
 3-5KFT CLOUDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6-9Z/WED (OVERNIGHT).            
 CS                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-MONDAY)...                                               
 ...ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE            
 WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                                  
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                              
 FAIRLY ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN STORE           
 FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATE EVENING MODELS CONTINUE            
 TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL WAVE             
 EJECTING EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.  ALL THE MODELS INDUCE SFC                
 CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND BRING A SFC LOW EASTWARD                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.  THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODELS              
 HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS              
 THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  WE STILL HAVE TWO CAMPS OF TRACKS TONIGHT...WITH           
 THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND NAM-WRF BEING THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE              
 LOW COMING ACROSS THE FA...WHILE THE UKMET AND EURO ARE FURTHER                
 SOUTH.  THE 00Z OP GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS AND OFFERS A                 
 PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE.                                                        
 USING A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL DATA...WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A            
 DRY DAY WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.               
 ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW BEGINS           
 ITS TREK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL TAKE              
 SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO PRECIPITATION MAY NOT               
 START UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  NONETHELESS...IT DOES APPEAR                
 PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY            
 FOR THIS PERIOD.  MODEL PROFILES FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ALL SNOW AS              
 THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                    
 MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON THURSDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT            
 AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER KENTUCKY.  BANDED           
 PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND BE                
 ORIENTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING.  HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY               
 POPS HERE BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE CHALLENGING.  IN THE PAST             
 SEVERAL EVENTS...WE HAVE SEEN STORMS SYSTEMS OUT IN THE LONG RANGE             
 BEING FORECAST TO GO SOUTH...ONLY TO SEE A NORTHWARD TRACK VERIFY AS           
 THE EVENT CAME CLOSER/UNFOLDED.  IN ADDITION...THE NUMERICAL MODELS            
 HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTING IN           
 ALOFT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.             
 TONIGHT...WE ARE IN THE SAME DILEMMA.                                          
 BASED ON ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA...AND NOT COMPLETELY THROWING OUT              
 THE NAM-WRF...AM INCLINED TO LEAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IN                 
 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR HARTFORD TO JUST              
 SOUTH OF RICHMOND.  NORTH OF THAT LINE...FEEL THAT DOMINANT                    
 PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST THU                    
 NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ALL AREAS GO TO SNOW.  ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW                
 APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE                  
 NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH ONE TO TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.                    
 HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWARD TREND IN THE SURFACE TRACK OCCURS...LESS            
 SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH AND THE 2-4 INCH BAND WOULD BE                
 DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH...PROBABLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN              
 THIS EVENT IS SOME 60-72 HORUS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STMT THIS             
 MORNING HIGHLIGHT IMPACTS OF THE EVENT.                                        
 SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH SOME BY                  
 FRIDAY.  SECONDARY CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH            
 THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND            
 OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.  THUS...HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT ONGOING           
 FORECAST INTACT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES              
 THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF OP GFS RAW SFC              
 TEMPS WITH A SPLASH OF THE MOS STAT GUIDANCE.                                  
 JARVIS                                                                         
 FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ONWARD WAS LEFT AS IS...PREVIOUS FORECAST               
 DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                          
 WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE EURO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME SUPPORT             
 FROM THE GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. INDICES (PNA/EPO/AO) STILL           
 SUPPORT THE COLDER AIR TO CONTINUE TO REPLENISH ITSELF THROUGH THE             
 NEXT FEW WEEKS. DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY POLAR             
 VORTEX(PV) ROTATING FROM THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVER            
 THE WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER TO DATE IN           
 THIS PERIOD. SFC HI PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO             
 SUNDAY...WEAK CLIPPER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY           
 MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPS INTO THE                 
 CENTRAL US AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED              
 EARLIER IF AN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND DURING THIS PERIOD...MAY SEE            
 TEMPS APPROACH ZERO FOR LOWS...WILL NOT ADJUST THAT WAY AS OF                  
 NOW...BUT HAVE TRENDED COLDER THRU THE PERIOD.                                 
 -SCHOTT                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 240 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                 
 CLIPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE THROUGH IOWA INTO IL/IN ATTM...WITH              
 ASSOC SFC TROF/FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR IND TO PAH AS OF 6Z.                 
 MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE              
 MID 20S. SCT SHSN HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...WITH           
 A FEW MOVING INTO THE LMK CWA AND AS FAR S AS NEAR LEITCHFIELD.                
 RECENT ACARS DATA AT KSDF SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...              
 HELPING PROMOTE THIS PRECIP.                                                   
 EXPECT ISLTD-SCT SHSN TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING                   
 HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA...DECREASING               
 SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW AMTS SHOULD BE MINOR AT BEST THOUGH SOME OF THE            
 SHSN HAVE BEEN INTENSE OVER IL/IN/OH BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITIES             
 NEAR 35DBZ OR HIGHER...SO IF SOME OF THESE WERE TO AFFECT OUR CWA              
 THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED ACCUMS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN A             
 SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO             
 THE MORNING DRIVE.                                                             
 BASED ON NAM/RUC...SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WRN COUNTIES AROUND             
 10-12Z...INTO ERN/SRN COUNTIES 12-14Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A             
 ROUND OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY. BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE GUSTS             
 TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM               
 OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS (EXCEPT             
 PERHAPS THE FAR SE COUNTIES). HAVE FOLLOWED A RUC/NAM BLEND FOR                
 TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
 CHANCES FOR SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN WITH STEEP LAPSE                  
 RATES...THOUGH FEEL THAT OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN IN THE              
 MORNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO           
 VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTN.           
 WILL WORD AFTERNOON POPS AS CHANCE VERSUS MORNING COVERAGE WORDING.            
 GUSTY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS              
 WIND CHILL VALUES THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY DROP            
 INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW NEAR-ZERO VALUES POSSIBLE. HAVE              
 ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DID NOT GO WITH COMPLETE             
 CLEARING SINCE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS SUGGEST AN AREA OF               
 3-5KFT CLOUDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6-9Z/WED (OVERNIGHT).            
 CS                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-MONDAY)...                                               
 ...ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE            
 WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                                  
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                              
 FAIRLY ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN STORE           
 FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATE EVENING MODELS CONTINUE            
 TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL WAVE             
 EJECTING EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.  ALL THE MODELS INDUCE SFC                
 CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND BRING A SFC LOW EASTWARD                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.  THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODELS              
 HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS              
 THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  WE STILL HAVE TWO CAMPS OF TRACKS TONIGHT...WITH           
 THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND NAM-WRF BEING THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE              
 LOW COMING ACROSS THE FA...WHILE THE UKMET AND EURO ARE FURTHER                
 SOUTH.  THE 00Z OP GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS AND OFFERS A                 
 PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE.                                                        
 USING A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL DATA...WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A            
 DRY DAY WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.               
 ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW BEGINS           
 ITS TREK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL TAKE              
 SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO PRECIPITATION MAY NOT               
 START UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  NONETHELESS...IT DOES APPEAR                
 PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY            
 FOR THIS PERIOD.  MODEL PROFILES FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ALL SNOW AS              
 THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                    
 MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON THURSDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT            
 AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER KENTUCKY.  BANDED           
 PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND BE                
 ORIENTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING.  HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY               
 POPS HERE BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE CHALLENGING.  IN THE PAST             
 SEVERAL EVENTS...WE HAVE SEEN STORMS SYSTEMS OUT IN THE LONG RANGE             
 BEING FORECAST TO GO SOUTH...ONLY TO SEE A NORTHWARD TRACK VERIFY AS           
 THE EVENT CAME CLOSER/UNFOLDED.  IN ADDITION...THE NUMERICAL MODELS            
 HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTING IN           
 ALOFT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.             
 TONIGHT...WE ARE IN THE SAME DILEMMA.                                          
 BASED ON ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA...AND NOT COMPLETELY THROWING OUT              
 THE NAM-WRF...AM INCLINED TO LEAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IN                 
 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR HARTFORD TO JUST              
 SOUTH OF RICHMOND.  NORTH OF THAT LINE...FEEL THAT DOMINANT                    
 PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST THU                    
 NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ALL AREAS GO TO SNOW.  ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW                
 APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE                  
 NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH ONE TO TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.                    
 HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWARD TREND IN THE SURFACE TRACK OCCURS...LESS            
 SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH AND THE 2-4 INCH BAND WOULD BE                
 DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH...PROBABLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN              
 THIS EVENT IS SOME 60-72 HORUS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STMT THIS             
 MORNING HIGHLIGHT IMPACTS OF THE EVENT.                                        
 SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH SOME BY                  
 FRIDAY.  SECONDARY CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH            
 THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND            
 OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.  THUS...HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT ONGOING           
 FORECAST INTACT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES              
 THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF OP GFS RAW SFC              
 TEMPS WITH A SPLASH OF THE MOS STAT GUIDANCE.                                  
 JARVIS                                                                         
 FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ONWARD WAS LEFT AS IS...PREVIOUS FORECAST               
 DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                          
 WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE EURO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME SUPPORT             
 FROM THE GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. INDICES (PNA/EPO/AO) STILL           
 SUPPORT THE COLDER AIR TO CONTINUE TO REPLENISH ITSELF THROUGH THE             
 NEXT FEW WEEKS. DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY POLAR             
 VORTEX(PV) ROTATING FROM THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVER            
 THE WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER TO DATE IN           
 THIS PERIOD. SFC HI PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO             
 SUNDAY...WEAK CLIPPER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY           
 MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPS INTO THE                 
 CENTRAL US AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED              
 EARLIER IF AN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND DURING THIS PERIOD...MAY SEE            
 TEMPS APPROACH ZERO FOR LOWS...WILL NOT ADJUST THAT WAY AS OF                  
 NOW...BUT HAVE TRENDED COLDER THRU THE PERIOD.                                 
 -SCHOTT                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                        
 FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS IN THE TAFS CENTERS ON CHCS FOR SNOW             
 SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT AS CLIPPER/COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH             
 THE REGION. AREA RADARS SHOW SCT SHSN OVER IL/IN...BASED ON TRENDS             
 AND LATEST RUC/NAM DATA...A FEW OF THESE MAY AFFECT LEX/SDF TAF                
 SITES THROUGH 15Z...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISLTD SUCH THAT             
 WE WILL NOT CARRY A PREVAILING SHSN GROUP IN THE TAFS...WILL RATHER            
 HANDLE WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.                                                  
 CIGS OVER THE REGION ARE NOT TERRIBLY LOW (GENERALLY MVFR-VFR) AND             
 PLAN ON CONTINUING THAT BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. SOME CIGS CLOSE TO            
 1-1.5KFT AGL MAY DROP INTO SRN IND AND PARTS OF CNTRL KY NORTH OF              
 I-64 BETWEEN 12-15Z (PER NAM)...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THOSE IN THE              
 TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AS COLD FRONT PUSHES           
 THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING (11-14Z TIMEFRAME). WHEN THIS HAPPENS            
 WINDS WILL GET GUSTY (GUSTS TO 20-23KTS OR SO) FOR THE BALANCE OF              
 THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.                                                            
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1210 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                        
 FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS IN THE TAFS CENTERS ON CHCS FOR SNOW             
 SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT AS CLIPPER/COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH             
 THE REGION. AREA RADARS SHOW SCT SHSN OVER IL/IN...BASED ON TRENDS             
 AND LATEST RUC/NAM DATA...A FEW OF THESE MAY AFFECT LEX/SDF TAF                
 SITES THROUGH 15Z...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISLTD SUCH THAT             
 WE WILL NOT CARRY A PREVAILING SHSN GROUP IN THE TAFS...WILL RATHER            
 HANDLE WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.                                                  
 CIGS OVER THE REGION ARE NOT TERRIBLY LOW (GENERALLY MVFR-VFR) AND             
 PLAN ON CONTINUING THAT BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. SOME CIGS CLOSE TO            
 1-1.5KFT AGL MAY DROP INTO SRN IND AND PARTS OF CNTRL KY NORTH OF              
 I-64 BETWEEN 12-15Z (PER NAM)...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THOSE IN THE              
 TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AS COLD FRONT PUSHES           
 THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING (11-14Z TIMEFRAME). WHEN THIS HAPPENS            
 WINDS WILL GET GUSTY (GUSTS TO 20-23KTS OR SO) FOR THE BALANCE OF              
 THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.                                                            
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF ISLTD -SHSN FOR SRN                     
 INDIANA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER IL/IN WILL AFFECT NRN             
 SECTIONS OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SE                
 FROM IA INTO IL. WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY...AND              
 ADD MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THE LOU/LEX VICINITIES.                            
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                           
 LONG LOOP WATER VAPOR PICTURES INDICATE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE               
 SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.           
 TEMPERATURE HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AHEAD OF A            
 COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. THIS FRONT WILL               
 SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 9-15Z TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF           
 THE FRONT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW            
 SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE               
 ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS                
 REGION MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COLD              
 AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND I HAVE GONE                
 SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS HIGHS TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST                       
 TEMPERATURES OCCURING IN THE MORNING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING           
 THE AFTERNOON.                                                                 
 FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS. MOS            
 TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD LOOK GOOD. --JA                                   
 .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                   
 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
 GREAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS NEARLY UNANIMOUS SOLUTION AMONG             
 THE SHORT RANGE MODELS. WILL USED THE 09Z SREF AS A BASIS FOR THE              
 FORECAST AND HOURLY GRIDS...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM                   
 PREVIOUS FORECAST. TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING              
 ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AS LARGE AREA OF SFC HI PRESSURE WORKS EAST            
 INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BEHIND THE TROUGH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF            
 COLDER AIR. SFC HI PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...SOME           
 HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM ACROSS THE SKIES DURING THE                   
 AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SOUTHERN                  
 SYSTEM. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE              
 TEENS.                                                                         
 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...                                                         
 AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THESE TWO DAYS ARE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN           
 THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO JUMPY MODELS AND THE                 
 ALWAYS PRESENT POSSIBILITY THAT MODELS ARE UNDERPLAYING THE STRENGTH           
 OF SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND CONTAIN A COLD BIAS                   
 ALOFT...THIS ESPECIALLY GOES FOR THE GFS. ONE THING THAT DOES ADD              
 MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST AS A WHOLE IS THE SOLUTIONS               
 HAVE CONVERGED SOMEWHAT FOR EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF AND            
 12Z GFS RUNS FROM TODAY. THEREFORE WILL USE A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR             
 THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS NOT TOO FAR OFF BUT HAS A                 
 SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTION...BUT THE UKMET DOES LEND SOME SUPPORT TO             
 THE BLENDED SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF             
 THEIR SOLUTIONS.                                                               
 EARLY THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY APPARENT IN BOTH THE GFS              
 AND THE NAM THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE 280 TO 290K               
 SURFACES...AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SOME                 
 UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST TO HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE VERY DRY LOW               
 LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP...WOULD THINK THAT NO PRECIP SHOULD REACH                 
 GROUND UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 1AM TO 4AM                 
 ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SPREADING EAST              
 AFTER 7AM. MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH            
 WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA           
 THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EAST OF I-65 FROM THE           
 LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH A 130 TO 140KT JET                 
 STREAK PASSING ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING INTO              
 THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. ALL TOGETHER IT MEANS A DECENT SHOT A SOME             
 ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST             
 POSSIBLE ACCUMS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA            
 SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARTFORD TO RICHMOND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                  
 INDICATE THE DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE TO BE SNOW...THOUGH AS MENTIONED             
 EARLIER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TREND OF STRONGER SW WINDS ALOFT                
 WHICH MAY CREATE MORE OF A MIX ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AS               
 USUAL AT 3 DAYS OUT OR MORE SOME CHANGES IN TRACK CAN BE EXPECTED IF           
 THE TRACK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THEN MORE MOISTURE MAY BE              
 BROUGHT INTO THE REGION AND BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW...LIQUID              
 EQUIV CURRENTLY SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN KY MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES IF NO           
 MIX WERE TO OCCUR...WITH AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF THERE AT THIS TIME.           
 ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF             
 THE FORECAST AREA SO A MIX IS VERY UNLIKELY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
 ALOFT NEVER WARM HIGHER THAN -2C DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE                
 UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS HERE WITH EVAP COOLING AND CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE           
 DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.                                                 
 FRIDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RESPECT TO CONFIDENCE...THOUGH THE            
 MODELS HAVE CLOSED SOMEWHAT ON A SOLUTION. STILL MUCH MORE                     
 UNCERTAINTY HERE THAN ON THURSDAY. GFS LOOKS ODD...IF YOU USE THE              
 HIGHER RESOLUTION VERSION SAY 40KM...PULL BACK TO THE 90KM VERSION             
 AND IT LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE 12Z EURO SOLUTION. OVERALL LESSER CHANCES           
 FOR ACCUMS ON FRIDAY BUT STILL A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AS A FRONT              
 WILL SWING THRU THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. MODEST             
 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SEEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND STRONG JET            
 STREAK MAY HELP WITH LIFT...ONLY CONCERN LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE SO               
 HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 30 ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START             
 TO TUMBLE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIR WORKS ACROSS              
 THE REGION. IF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWCOVER EXISTS THEN WE WILL HAVE TO           
 LOWER TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY THRU THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.           
 SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...                                               
 WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE EURO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME SUPPORT             
 FROM THE GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. INDICES (PNA/EPO/AO) STILL           
 SUPPORT THE COLDER AIR TO CONTINUE TO REPLENISH ITSELF THROUGH THE             
 NEXT FEW WEEKS. DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY POLAR             
 VORTEX(PV) ROTATING FROM THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVER            
 THE WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER TO DATE IN           
 THIS PERIOD. SFC HI PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO             
 SUNDAY...WEAK CLIPPER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY           
 MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPS INTO THE                 
 CENTRAL US AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED              
 EARLIER IF AN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND DURING THIS PERIOD...MAY SEE            
 TEMPS APPROACH ZERO FOR LOWS...WILL NOT ADJUST THAT WAY AS OF                  
 NOW...BUT HAVE TRENDED COLDER THRU THE PERIOD.                                 
 SCHOTT                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                         
 945 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CLOUD COVER A PLENTY THIS EVENING WITH THE PRESENCE OF A 150KT SUBTROPICAL     
 JET OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ADVANCING          
 E ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND REGION ATTM...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE E ACROSS           
 CENTRAL/SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO S LA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOWERING CIGS           
 ACROSS E TX HAS PROVIDED A BLANKET OVER THESE AREAS...WITH 3Z TEMPS            
 SOME 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. MIN TEMP                 
 FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT...AS CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT ELSEWHERE           
 OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THUS TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP            
 SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OR SO THROUGH 12Z. THE NEW 00Z NAM RUN NOW INDICATES      
 LITTLE IF ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AFTER 6Z OVER SE TX/SW                
 LA...ALTHOUGH THE RUC MAINTAINS CONSISTENCY IN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS          
 OF GENERATING ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS          
 ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES...SIMILAR TO THE 18Z GFS RUN. PSN PROFILER         
 INDICATING GOOD 30KT SW FETCH BETWEEN 1-2KM...THUS BELIEVE THE                 
 ISENTROPIC LIFT/-RA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 6Z IN VC OF THE MIDDLE TX               
 COAST...WHICH WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE TX/SW LA OVERNIGHT...BRUSHING            
 THE S ZONES. HAVE RAISED POPS A TAD TO LOW CHANCE AFTER 6Z FOR DEEP E          
 TX AND PORTIONS OF WCNTRL LA...AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR           
 THE EXTREME SE ZONES. BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TYR/GGG AREAS AS BEST          
 FORCING WILL REMAIN S OF THESE AREAS. ALSO REMOVED TEMPORAL SKY                
 CONDITION WORDING AND ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD TO ACCOMMODATE SLOW          
 FALL THIS EVENING.                                                             
 OTHERWISE...BUILDING CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE         
 ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THUS               
 SHIFTING THE RAIN AREA QUICKLY OUT OF THE S SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST           
 AREA TUESDAY.                                                                  
 REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                
 15                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31/00Z. HOWEVER...EXPECT MARGINAL                
 CONDITIONS VICINITY LFK BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z.                                   
 COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO             
 MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR BY 08Z. THE FRONT WILL            
 BRING CIGS NEAR 5 THOUSAND. WIDESPREAD CIGS NEAR 5 THOUSAND WILL               
 ALSO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 06Z...OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO                 
 AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET LFK TO AEX LINE AFT 08Z.  VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY             
 FALL TO NEAR 3 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN SECTIONS AFT 08Z. CIGS             
 AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AFT 18Z. EXPECT SOUTHERLY             
 WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST           
 BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z BEHIND THE FRONT.  /14/                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 SHV  36  44  28  41 /  10  10  10  20                                          
 MLU  34  43  28  43 /  10  30  10  10                                          
 DEQ  29  44  24  41 /  10  10  10  30                                          
 TXK  32  44  27  42 /  10  10  10  20                                          
 ELD  31  43  24  42 /  10  20  10  20                                          
 TYR  37  45  30  42 /  10  20  10  30                                          
 GGG  36  44  27  41 /  10  20  10  20                                          
 LFK  40  46  33  44 /  30  20  10  20                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AR...NONE.                                                                     
 LA...NONE.                                                                     
 OK...NONE.                                                                     
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 15/14                                                                          
</pre> la                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                            
 1023 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007                                                    
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH                    
 PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL USHER IN MORE COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM THE               
 NORTHWEST TODAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                 
 WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE                    
 BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A LACK OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND               
 DRY LOW LEVELS PER MORNING SOUNDING DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION              
 OF SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. ALSO CUT BACK ON CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON                  
 ACROSS THE NORTH. SAT SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH OCEAN LOW                   
 BACKING IN TOWARD THE COAST SO WENT PARTLY CLOUDY HERE. REST OF                
 FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. UPDATED AFM/PFM/ZFP             
 ALREADY SENT.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR              
 SET TO INVADE THE CWA LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SO THEREFORE...THE             
 MAIN FOCUS THIS FCST PACKAGE IN TEMPERATURES AND HOW EXTENSIVE                 
 WILL CLOUDS BE.                                                                
 USED THE GFS PRIMARILY INTO TUESDAY W/UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH              
 THE CWA & VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH. GFS MATCHED WELL PER 00Z UA.              
 ONE CAVEAT IS I DID LOAD IN THE NAM12 FOR THE SKY GRIDS FOR THE                
 1ST 12 HRS OF THE FCST BASED ON ITS HANDLING OF THINGS OVER THE                
 PAST 6 HRS PER IR SATL IMAGERY. AFT THAT...THE GFS WAS USED                    
 W/ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD ESP TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ALONG               
 THE MTNS OUT W & OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HANG           
 ON W/COLD AIR IN NWLY FLOW. ADDED SCTD SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO THE             
 EVENING ACROSS THE N & W. NO HIGHER THAN 30% POP.                              
 NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES...MAV MOS HAS BEEN PRETTY                             
 REASONABLE...HOWEVER IT IS UNDERDONE ON TEMPERATURES ATTM.                     
 DECISION WAS TO USE THE GFS 2M TEMPERATURES W/SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON              
 THE UPWARD END FOR MINS TONIGHT AS WINDS COULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO               
 ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING. ANYWAY...THINKING IS THAT NORMALLY COLDER               
 AREAS LIKE SAINT JOHN VALLEY...WRN AREAS & NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY               
 WILL SEE MINS TONIGHT BOTTOMING BETWEEN -15 TO -20F W/SOME SITES               
 POSSIBLY HITTING LOWER. WENT BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY DOWN TO                    
 DOWNEAST AREAS W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS                       
 TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND ZERO. PREV FCST MAXES LOOKED GOOD &             
 ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND THIS WAS FOR TUESDAY W/THIS               
 ARCTIC AIRMASS BECOMING ENTRENCHED.                                            
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FORECASTED TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY              
 NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO              
 CROSS MAINE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE              
 ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES DURING WEDNESDAY               
 AFTERNOON WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN               
 WILL SETUP OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BUT AGAIN WITH LIMITED                  
 MOISTURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 50 PERCENT WITH             
 HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS                
 CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH GFS AND             
 ECMWF PLACE A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONNECTED WITH A LOW OFF THE            
 EAST COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS MAY                 
 MOVE THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A                 
 PERIOD OF SNOW AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN ROTATES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE             
 AREA.                                                                          
 AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...                                                          
 LOOKS LIKE VFR RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                       
 MARINE...                                                                      
 KEPT THE SCA IN PLACE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE READY TO GO                  
 INTO THE CATEGORY. PREV FCST PACKAGE RIGHT ON ESP W/THE WAVE                   
 HEIGHTS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING NAM12 & RUC RUNNING TOO               
 LOW ON WINDS. 20-25 KTS LOOKS GOOD INTO TONIGHT W/SURGE OF THAT                
 ARCTIC AIR ON NW WINDS. WNA RUNNING TOO LOW BY AT LEAST A FOOT.                
 WAVE HEIGHTS RUNNING 5 FT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. SEA SPRAY                    
 NOMOGRAM SHOWS FREEZING SPRAY TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.                  
 DAY CREW CAN ASSESS THIS MORE W/LATER GUIDANCE.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ME...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050.               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...DUDA                                                              
</pre> me                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                         
 208 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
 RUC AND NAM-WRF SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
 CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER             
 OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. HENCE, TONIGHT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE           
 MAINLY AFFECTED BY POSTFRONTAL COLD-ADVECTION LIFT/INSTABILITY AND             
 LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON           
 THE ORDER OF AN INCH FOR MOST PLACES, BUT AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES NEAR             
 THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.                            
 BASED ON NAM-WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS, EXPECT THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY              
 LAYER TO SHRINK TO A HEIGHT OF LESS THAN 6 KFT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
 THEREFORE, THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY               
 WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. SO WILL KEEP ENDING TIME OF CURRENT SNOW/LAKE               
 SNOW ADVISORIES AS IS.                                                         
 FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL KEEP WITH RECENT NAM AND GFS MOS VALUES.                
 WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY AT 10 TO 15 MPH, ALBEIT           
 SOME GUSTS CAN BRIEFLY REACH 20-25 MPH.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                
 RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT              
 UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AND                  
 PERHAPS INTO MID FEBRUARY, WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN                
 CANADA PROVIDING A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES              
 AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SO THE CURRENT EPISODE OF COLDER THAN NORMAL            
 TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING CLIPPER-RELATED PERIODS OF LIGHT BUT             
 PESKY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE INTO NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR             
 THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS WEEK AS 850MB                  
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE FREQUENTLY COLDER THAN M20C AND SURFACE                   
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE ZERO TO 15 ABOVE RANGE AS                   
 INDICATED BY RECENT HPC GUIDANCE AND GFS MOS VALUES.                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /19Z-18Z/...                                                         
 COLD FRONT IS CROSSING PITTSBURGH AT THE MOMENT BRINGING A BAND OF             
 HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS IN THE IFR           
 RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 2SM OR LOWER. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY            
 MVFR RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD                   
 CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO            
 MVFR OR VFR OVERNIGHT AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE               
 AIRPORT AREAS AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MD...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.                        
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ030-032.                    
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                    
      PAZ007>009.                                                               
 WV...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 66/11/66/                                                                      
</pre> md                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                            
 1248 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 WNDS ABV SCA CRITERIA AT TPLM2...AND GUSTS ARND 20 KT REPORTED AT              
 ERN MTR SITES. SEEMS THO SUFFICIENT MIXING TAKING PLACE IN SPITE               
 OF IMPENDING CLDCVR AND COLD WATER. WL RAISE FLAGS NOW...AND FIRE              
 OFF A QUICK MARINE UPDT.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL...W/ CHC -SHSN ALL SITES XCPT CHO LT AFTN                 
 INVOF FROPA. SHUD HV LTL TO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS...AND THUS NO                 
 OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLY FLOW /G20 KT/ WL VEER NW BY 00Z. HIER                  
 GUSTS PROBABLE...SPCLY RIGHT BHD FROPA.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1005 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 VORT MAX CNTRD IN SRN OH ATTM PER VAPOR LOOP. RGNL RADARS DEPICT               
 SHSN HAS SPREAD E OF THAT TO THE WRN RDGS OF CWFA. AFTR GLANCING               
 AT 12Z RUNS OF RUC AND NAM...IT APPRS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP MSTR               
 WL BE CONFINED TO THOSE RDGS. TRACK OF SHEARED VORT WL BE W-E ACRS             
 CWFA...PASSING NEAR OF JUST N OF DC. SFC REFLECTION WL CROSS PA...             
 WELL N OF US. THUS...DONT HV MUCH HOPE THAT SNW WL FALL E OF FVRD              
 UPSLOPE TRRN. GOING FCST CVRS THAT. WL HOLD ONTO SNW ADVY AREA AS              
 THESE ZNS CARRY HIEST RISK. AM A LTL CONCERNED THAT MAXT MAY BE A              
 CPL TICKS TOO HIGH PER MRNG RAOBS. BUT DUE TO AMPLE SUN ATTM AND               
 BRIEF PD OF SW FLOW AHD OF S/WV...WL LV THAT AS IS ALSO. THUS...HV             
 TOUCHED UP A FEW GRIDS...BUT NO UPDT TO TXT PRODUCTS XPCTD ATTM.               
 AVIATION /15Z-12Z/...                                                          
 VFR CONDS THRU PD...W/ 5000 FT CIGS LT TAFTN-ELY EVE. MAYBE A                  
 PD OF FLURRIES AT MRB AS CLIPPER PASSES N OF AREA. CUD EVEN BE A               
 FLURRY OR TWO DC-BALT AREA AIRPORTS...BUT RISK TOO SLIM FOR TAF                
 MNTN. SHUD HV NO IMPACT TO OPS.                                                
 MARINE...                                                                      
 LGT SLY FLOW AHD OF CLIPPER SYSTM. WNDS WL VEER NW AND PICK UP                 
 TNGT IN WAKE OF SYSTM. WL HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINE FOR TNGT.                     
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 320 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
 A BIT OF A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH SOME CONFLICTING INFO FROM THE                
 MODELS ABOUT A CLIPPER COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC LOW              
 WAS MOVING THRU THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND PRESSING EAST. IT           
 WILL BE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA AND OUT              
 OVER THE OCEAN. THE VORT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS SHEARED VORTICITY               
 MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATL AND NOT A STRONG PACKET SO NOT IMPRESSED             
 WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS SOME FN VECTR               
 CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB THAT EXTENDS S FROM THE VORT                 
 MOVING THROUGH LIKE A COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS ONE             
 INDICATOR THAT A SMALL SNOW BAND COULD MOVE THROUGH IN THE                     
 AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE SHEARED VORT THAT MOVES EAST THRU DC...            
 THE BEST CHC WOULD BE N OF THAT AND WITH THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE             
 SYSTEM... A SLIM CHC EVEN THERE. ALSO HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST            
 ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR AT ELEVATION... AND CURRENT RADAR EXTENT             
 OF THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED. PUT ALL OF THAT TOGETHER AND THE BEST CHC            
 IS THAT NO MEASURABLE SNOW MAKES IT EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS                 
 AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHC FOR A DUSTING FOR THE N TIER OF MD... AND AN           
 EVEN SMALLER 10-20 PERCENT CHC OF A DUSTING SOUTH OF THAT.                     
 ONCE THE CLIPPER ROLLS THRU... SKIES CLEAR OUT AGAIN AND NW WINDS              
 KICK UP AGAIN BRINGING COLD TEMPS AROUND 20 FOR MANY BY WED MORNING            
 WITH WIND CHILLS BACK DOWN AROUND ZERO IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND            
 IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE REST.                                   
 IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF W GRANT W MINERAL AND W ALLEGANY               
 COUNTIES THERE WILL BE A SNOW ADV ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND                
 OVERNIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL LIKELY PILE UP AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS             
 RETURN.                                                                        
 AVIATION /09Z-12Z/...                                                          
 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART. MAY             
 BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR CONDTIONS WHEN THE CLIPPER ACTUALLY MOVES THRU IN           
 THE AFTERNOON... BUT BETTER CHC THAT IT WILL REMAIN VFR. SW WINDS              
 WILL FLIP TO NW AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.               
 SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE TWEBS. THERE            
 IS A SLIGHT CHC OF A CONVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING                
 ALONG THE CLIPPER...BUT AGAIN A BETTER CHC THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL              
 NOT MAKE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.                                             
 MARINE...                                                                      
 AFTER THE CLIPPER LOW MOVES THRU AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BIT WINDS            
 WILL KICK UP ONCE AGAIN AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR             
 9 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY.                                          
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW            
 PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.                           
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
 BUSY MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY           
 FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES           
 THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM OUT TO SEA FOR             
 THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS             
 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE                  
 CONTINUED CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT.              
 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW APPROACHING            
 THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE THEIR INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM               
 FROM TIMING AND LOCATION TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHILE THE TRACK OF             
 THE ACTUAL LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT GUIDANCE COMES BACK IN LINE            
 WITH THE LOW PLACED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY                 
 MORNING AT 12Z. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER MODEL WHILE THE NAM IS THE             
 SLOWEST AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN. TOOK A BLEND OF THE THREE USING THE            
 GFS. WHILE EARLIER RUNS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION IN FASTER...GUIDANCE             
 HAS SINCE BACKED OFF. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST                 
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST POPS MOST           
 LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE            
 INTERESTING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH THE VARYING                
 TRACKS OF THE LOW...TYPE FORECASTING HAS BEEN MORE OF A CHALLENGE.             
 USING HPC GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS...A CHANGE OVER FROM             
 SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST             
 AREA...AND SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. HAVE              
 ADDED THE MENTION OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR                   
 WASHINGTON DC WEST TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE                     
 SHENANDOAH VALLEY...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS BALTIMORE.                 
 CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW GIVEN VARIANCE OF RECENT             
 MODEL RUNS...SO THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48            
 HOURS.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 DC...NONE.                                                                     
 MD...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.                        
 VA...NONE.                                                                     
 WV...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.                    
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                    
 ANZ530>537.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATES...HTS                                                                  
 ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...STRONG/SAR                                               
</pre> md                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                            
 1005 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 VORT MAX CNTRD IN SRN OH ATTM PER VAPOR LOOP. RGNL RADARS DEPICT               
 SHSN HAS SPREAD E OF THAT TO THE WRN RDGS OF CWFA. AFTR GLANCING               
 AT 12Z RUNS OF RUC AND NAM...IT APPRS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP MSTR               
 WL BE CONFINED TO THOSE RDGS. TRACK OF SHEARED VORT WL BE W-E ACRS             
 CWFA...PASSING NEAR OF JUST N OF DC. SFC REFLECTION WL CROSS PA...             
 WELL N OF US. THUS...DONT HV MUCH HOPE THAT SNW WL FALL E OF FVRD              
 UPSLOPE TRRN. GOING FCST CVRS THAT. WL HOLD ONTO SNW ADVY AREA AS              
 THESE ZNS CARRY HIEST RISK. AM A LTL CONCERNED THAT MAXT MAY BE A              
 CPL TICKS TOO HIGH PER MRNG RAOBS. BUT DUE TO AMPLE SUN ATTM AND               
 BRIEF PD OF SW FLOW AHD OF S/WV...WL LV THAT AS IS ALSO. THUS...HV             
 TOUCHED UP A FEW GRIDS...BUT NO UPDT TO TXT PRODUCTS XPCTD ATTM.               
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /15Z-12Z/...                                                         
 VFR CONDS THRU PD...W/ 5000 FT CIGS LT TAFTN-ELY EVE. MAYBE A                  
 PD OF FLURRIES AT MRB AS CLIPPER PASSES N OF AREA. CUD EVEN BE A               
 FLURRY OR TWO DC-BALT AREA AIRPORTS...BUT RISK TOO SLIM FOR TAF                
 MNTN. SHUD HV NO IMPACT TO OPS.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 LGT SLY FLOW AHD OF CLIPPER SYSTM. WNDS WL VEER NW AND PICK UP                 
 TNGT IN WAKE OF SYSTM. WL HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINE FOR TNGT.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 320 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
 A BIT OF A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH SOME CONFLICTING INFO FROM THE                
 MODELS ABOUT A CLIPPER COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC LOW              
 WAS MOVING THRU THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND PRESSING EAST. IT           
 WILL BE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA AND OUT              
 OVER THE OCEAN. THE VORT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS SHEARED VORTICITY               
 MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATL AND NOT A STRONG PACKET SO NOT IMPRESSED             
 WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS SOME FN VECTR               
 CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB THAT EXTENDS S FROM THE VORT                 
 MOVING THROUGH LIKE A COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS ONE             
 INDICATOR THAT A SMALL SNOW BAND COULD MOVE THROUGH IN THE                     
 AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE SHEARED VORT THAT MOVES EAST THRU DC...            
 THE BEST CHC WOULD BE N OF THAT AND WITH THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE             
 SYSTEM... A SLIM CHC EVEN THERE. ALSO HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST            
 ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR AT ELEVATION... AND CURRENT RADAR EXTENT             
 OF THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED. PUT ALL OF THAT TOGETHER AND THE BEST CHC            
 IS THAT NO MEASURABLE SNOW MAKES IT EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS                 
 AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHC FOR A DUSTING FOR THE N TIER OF MD... AND AN           
 EVEN SMALLER 10-20 PERCENT CHC OF A DUSTING SOUTH OF THAT.                     
 ONCE THE CLIPPER ROLLS THRU... SKIES CLEAR OUT AGAIN AND NW WINDS              
 KICK UP AGAIN BRINGING COLD TEMPS AROUND 20 FOR MANY BY WED MORNING            
 WITH WIND CHILLS BACK DOWN AROUND ZERO IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND            
 IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE REST.                                   
 IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF W GRANT W MINERAL AND W ALLEGANY               
 COUNTIES THERE WILL BE A SNOW ADV ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND                
 OVERNIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL LIKELY PILE UP AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS             
 RETURN.                                                                        
 AVIATION /09Z-12Z/...                                                          
 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART. MAY             
 BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR CONDTIONS WHEN THE CLIPPER ACTUALLY MOVES THRU IN           
 THE AFTERNOON... BUT BETTER CHC THAT IT WILL REMAIN VFR. SW WINDS              
 WILL FLIP TO NW AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.               
 SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE TWEBS. THERE            
 IS A SLIGHT CHC OF A CONVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING                
 ALONG THE CLIPPER...BUT AGAIN A BETTER CHC THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL              
 NOT MAKE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.                                             
 MARINE...                                                                      
 AFTER THE CLIPPER LOW MOVES THRU AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BIT WINDS            
 WILL KICK UP ONCE AGAIN AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR             
 9 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY.                                          
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW            
 PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.                           
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
 BUSY MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY           
 FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES           
 THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM OUT TO SEA FOR             
 THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS             
 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE                  
 CONTINUED CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT.              
 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW APPROACHING            
 THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE THEIR INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM               
 FROM TIMING AND LOCATION TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHILE THE TRACK OF             
 THE ACTUAL LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT GUIDANCE COMES BACK IN LINE            
 WITH THE LOW PLACED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY                 
 MORNING AT 12Z. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER MODEL WHILE THE NAM IS THE             
 SLOWEST AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN. TOOK A BLEND OF THE THREE USING THE            
 GFS. WHILE EARLIER RUNS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION IN FASTER...GUIDANCE             
 HAS SINCE BACKED OFF. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST                 
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST POPS MOST           
 LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE            
 INTERESTING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH THE VARYING                
 TRACKS OF THE LOW...TYPE FORECASTING HAS BEEN MORE OF A CHALLENGE.             
 USING HPC GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS...A CHANGE OVER FROM             
 SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST             
 AREA...AND SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. HAVE              
 ADDED THE MENTION OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR                   
 WASHINGTON DC WEST TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE                     
 SHENANDOAH VALLEY...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS BALTIMORE.                 
 CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW GIVEN VARIANCE OF RECENT             
 MODEL RUNS...SO THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48            
 HOURS.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 DC...NONE.                                                                     
 MD...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY              
      FOR MDZ501.                                                               
 VA...NONE.                                                                     
 WV...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY              
      FOR WVZ501-503.                                                           
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST              
      WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>537.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG/SAR                                                   
 UPDATED SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...HTS                                       
</pre> md                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1035 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MAIN FCST CONCERN IS LOCATION/STRENGTH OF LES BANDS.                           
 RADAR INDICATED A PROMINENT WEST TO EAST LES BAND FROM JUST SOUTH OF           
 STANNARD ROCK TO WHITEFHISH POINT. SIGNFICANT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE              
 WAS EVIDENT WITH W OR SW WINDS FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND NW           
 WINDS FROM THE KEWEENAW AND STANNARD ROCK. OVER THE WEST...SFC OBS             
 SUGGEST LOW LVL CONV WAS FOCUSED BETWEEN ONTONAGON AND KCMX. 00Z               
 TAMDAR SNDG SHOWED TEMPS TO NEAR -19C AT 850 MB (5K FT) INVERSION              
 WHILE UPSTREAM KDLH SNDG SHOWED A LOWER INVERSION(AROUND 900 MB) AND           
 A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER PROFILE.                                                 
 MESO MODELS SHOWED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT POSITION FOR BEST LOW LVL CONV           
 AND LIKELY LOCATION FOR STRONGEST LES OVER THE WEST. THE NAM                   
 CONTINUED TO FOCUS LES BAND FARTHER NORTH...INTO HOUGHTON...THAN THE           
 LAPS WRF-ARW (JUST N OF M-38) OR THE RUC13(SOUTH OF M-38). THE GOING           
 FCST ADEQUATELY REFLECTS POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCH FROM ROCKLAND TO               
 CALUMET. HOWEVER...ONLY MORE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE                     
 EXPECTED...MOST LIKELY S OF HOUGHTON.                                          
 RADAR TREND AND MESO MODELS STILL SUGGEST SIGNFICANT LES POTENTIAL             
 ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE E OF GRAND MARAIS THAT EVENTUALLY                
 WOULD SAG FARTHER S INTO ERN ALGER COUNTY AND NRN LUCE COUNTY BY               
 DAYBREAK. AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE NEED AT THIS POINT TO ALTER GOING            
 FCST AS POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR LOCAL 4-8 INCH AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK.              
 &&                                                                             
 JLB                                                                            
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                           
 ...ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS                   
 WEEKEND...                                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                
 TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF SE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE           
 CENTER BEING A 498 DAM POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY. ON THE WEST               
 SIDE OF THE VORTEX WAS A SHRTWV OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO...                   
 ACCOMPANIED BY A 90 KT JET STREAK NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE. THIS SHRTWV             
 IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM             
 NE MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO JUST N OF PICKLE LAKE. ALTHOUGH              
 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM NEARBY CANADIAN RAOBS DO NOT INDICATE A LOT OF              
 MOISTURE WITH THE SHRTWV...SURFACE OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY           
 DOES SHOW A STRATUS DECK ALONG AND BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WITH                   
 OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT. EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW HAS           
 BEEN REPORTED...WITH A 2 1/2 SM VISIBILITY RECENTLY AT PICKLE LAKE.            
 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL CHILLY NEAR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE PICKLE LAKE           
 ONTARIO 12Z SOUNDING REPORTING AROUND -17C. CLOSER TO HOME...A                 
 1018MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...             
 WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD TO A 1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA. THE            
 COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR (SEE 12Z INL SOUNDING) AND DEVELOPING                 
 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS HELPED TO              
 GREATLY DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.           
 HOWEVER...WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS              
 ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.               
 FARTHER TO THE WEST...A STRONG SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN DIVING SOUTHWARD             
 THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE                
 WHEICH EXTENDS UP INTO ALASKA. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE OVER            
 THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS YET A STRONGER SHRTWV...AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT           
 WILL BRING THE ARCTIC AIR IN FOR THE WEEKEND.                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...                                               
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LES WITH APPROACHING SHRTWV.                          
 WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING              
 SHRTWV AND SURFACE TROUGHS...WILL SET UP AN INTERESTING SCENARIO               
 FOR TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN THIS EVENING IN THE INTERIOR            
 AND OVER ONTARIO...LAND BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO SET UP. THESE LAND               
 BREEZES WILL HELP TO FOCUS STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE                
 TROUGH...WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE              
 LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE NEAR GRAND MARAIS AROUND 03Z. THIS                     
 CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY (AS               
 NOTED WITH PICKLE LAKES RAOB) AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD HELP                
 GENERATE SOME HEAVY LES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OMEGA INDUCED FROM              
 THE LAKE EFFECT WILL INTERSECT A 50-75MB DEEP SNOW GROWTH LAYER PER            
 MODEL SOUNDINGS. EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE LAND BREEZE IS WILL DICTATE            
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVERGENCE AND HEAVY SNOW GOES...PARTICULARLY IN            
 THE WESTERN U.P. THE 13 KM RUC...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON                
 LATEST LES EVENTS...SUGGESTS THE BAND WILL FOCUS IN THE AREA BETWEEN           
 ROCKLAND AND BARAGA. HOWEVER THE NAM...REGIONAL CANADIAN AND LOCAL             
 HIGH RESOLUTION WRF RUNS KEEP THE BAND FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS                  
 PAINESDALE AND HOUGHTON. THE LATEST 15Z AND 18Z RUC RUNS APPEAR TO             
 BE FOLLOWING THE NAM SCENARIO TOO. SINCE ALL SOLUTIONS SEEM                    
 PLAUSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE. WHEREVER IT SETS              
 UP...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 9 TO 12 HOURS                 
 BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES NORTHWARD...AND GIVEN GREAT SNOW             
 GROWTH ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO HOIST WARNINGS EARLIER FOR NE           
 ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR            
 KEWEENAW AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON FOR BOTH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BAND             
 PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE OTHER BANDS THAT ARE AIDED BY UPSLOPE.                  
 KEWEENAW COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS              
 THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY GET STUCK THERE. DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH A             
 WARNING...THOUGH...AS THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY FROM THAT           
 OBSERVED TONIGHT.                                                              
 FOR THE EASTERN CWA...UPGRADED THE WATCH EARLIER TO A WARNING AS               
 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH THE CONVERGENCE AREA. LOCAL             
 HIGH RESOLUTION WRF RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 0.60 OF QPF UNDER THIS                  
 CONVERGENCE...WHICH GIVEN RECENT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WOULD SUGGEST            
 UP TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH AT THE PRESENT                   
 TIME...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF AMOUNTS THAT HIGH                     
 OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXTRA CONVERGENCE HELP FROM LAND BREEZES              
 OFF ONTARIO.                                                                   
 AWAY FROM THE LES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...CONDITIONS LOOK               
 FAIRLY QUIET. ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS DECK OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO            
 MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE SHRTWV FORCING WHICH              
 HAS HELPED PRODUCE THE LIGHT SNOW AT PICKLE LAKE IS PROGGED TO MOVE            
 OFF TO THE E. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR                
 SYNOPTIC SNOW. ALSO REMOVED POPS FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW ON WED SINCE MUCH           
 OF THE CWA IS PROGGED TO BE IN WEAK SHRTWV RIDGING BETWEEN TONIGHTS            
 SHRTWV AND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHRTWV TROUGH.                                     
 GOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE               
 MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THEM.                                                 
 .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                     
 ON WED NGT...SHRTWV TROF/DEEPER MSTR WL BE PUSHING TO THE E WED                
 NGT...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS LLVL FLOW VEERING MORE W OVERNGT W-E IN ITS           
 WAKE AND GRDLY BECMG MORE ACYC WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDGING/DNVA/               
 H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC. THESE EVENTS SHOULD CAUSE LES BANDS NEAR THE TIP           
 OF THE KEWEENAW TO MIGRATE TO THE S IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM FCST                  
 SHARPER LLVL CNVGC. HOWEVER...SHIFTING WINDS/MORE TRANSIENT CNVGC/             
 NEGATIVE DYNAMICS MIGHT LIMIT SN ACCUMULATION WED NGT. WL GO WITH              
 LIKELY POPS OVER THE W FM ONTONAGON COUNTY TO THE N. SINCE GUIDANCE            
 SHOWS FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC REMAINING TO THE N OF THE ERN ZNS...WL GO             
 WITH JUST CHC POPS NR LK SUP E OF P53. OTRW...ANY PTCHY -SN/                   
 FLURRIES ACCOMPANYING SHRTWV WL TEND TO DIMINISH OVERNGT ONCE DEEPER           
 MSTR/DYNAMICS EXIT TO THE E. PREFER LOWER GOING FCST MIN TEMPS WITH            
 PROSPECT OF DRYING ALF LATE AS SHOWN ON GFS FCST SDNGS EVEN THOUGH             
 BKN-OVC SC SHOULD LINGER UNDER DVLPG SUBSIDENCE INVRN.                         
 EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON THU UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG                     
 DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LLVL FLOW                 
 SLOWLY BACKING MORE SW. EVEN THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF SC WL LINGER                
 UNDER MID LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN ON GFS FCST SDNGS....WL           
 RESTRICT MENTION OF POPS ON THU TO AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP IN                 
 EXPECTED WSW FLOW. PREFER SOMEWHAT LOWER GFS MOS TEMPS GIVEN                   
 EXPECTED CLD COVER/H85 TEMPS -15C TO -17C OR SO.                               
 AS SHRTWV FM THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI            
 AND THEN INTO ERN LK SUP BY 00Z FRI ACCOMPANINED BY SOME FAIRLY                
 HEALTHY DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/12 HR H5 HGT FALLS APRCHG 80M...              
 EXPECT A RELATIVELY WDSPRD SN TO DVLP...WITH THE HEAVIEST SN FALLING           
 OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK WHERE LLVL             
 NW FLOW WL OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AS H85                
 TEMPS TUMBLE IN THE AFTN AND GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW DEEP MSTR THRU THE            
 TROP. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE WITH CATEGORICAL            
 POPS FM IWD-CMX-HURON MTNS ON FRI. LATER SHIFTS WL LIKELY NEED TO              
 ISSUE HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT EVEN THOUGH LATEST NCEP FCST SN AMTS             
 JUST A FEW INCHES.                                                             
 BITTER COLD WL BE THE MAIN WX STORY THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN            
 PERSISENT HI AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE NAO/POSTIVE PNA DEEP UPR TROF                  
 CENTERED BTWN ERN PAC RDG NOSING INTO AK AND BLOCKING UPR HI IN THE            
 N ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SLGT TIMING DIFFERENCES...           
 00Z>12Z MID RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 0Z GFS                
 REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTING SFC LO CROSSING LK SUP ON FRI (SEE              
 ABV) IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING WAVE OF ARCTIC AIR. CORE OF ARCTIC COLD            
 WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -28C TO -32C RANGE FCST BY BOTH 06Z GFS/12Z              
 ECMWF TO INVADE SAT AND PERSIST INTO TUE. GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN             
 SHOWS AVERAGE H1000-5 THKNS ARND 488DM WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN EXCESS           
 OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO NORMAL. AS A COMPARISON TO RECENT COLD            
 WAVES...H85 TEMPS IN THE EARLY FEB 1996 COLD WAVE WERE -30C TO                 
 -35C...SO THIS EVENT MAY END UP MARGINALLY WARMER THAN THE COLD                
 OBSVD IN EARLY FEB 1996. GIVEN AGREEMENT AMONG OPS MODELS/ENSEMBLE             
 MEAN...WL GO TOWARD THE LO END OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE                     
 WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH SOME MIN TEMPS AOB -30F/MAX TEMPS              
 REMAINING BLO 0F A GOOD BET FOR INTERIOR AREAS. ALTHOUGH LES WL BE             
 ONGOING NR LK SUP WITH CORE OF COLD PASSING OVER LK SUP ESPECIALLY             
 IN NW FLOW BELTS TO THE S OF LK INDUCED TROF NR LK SUP...SUCH FRIGID           
 TEMPS WL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR FVRBL SN GROWTH.                                 
 COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ002-003              
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ006-007             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ001                 
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM WED MIZ084                
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (SHORT TERM)                                                                
 KC (LONG TERM)                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 ...ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS                   
 WEEKEND...                                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                
 TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF SE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE           
 CENTER BEING A 498 DAM POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY. ON THE WEST               
 SIDE OF THE VORTEX WAS A SHRTWV OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO...                   
 ACCOMPANIED BY A 90 KT JET STREAK NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE. THIS SHRTWV             
 IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM             
 NE MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO JUST N OF PICKLE LAKE. ALTHOUGH              
 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM NEARBY CANADIAN RAOBS DO NOT INDICATE A LOT OF              
 MOISTURE WITH THE SHRTWV...SURFACE OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY           
 DOES SHOW A STRATUS DECK ALONG AND BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WITH                   
 OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT. EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW HAS           
 BEEN REPORTED...WITH A 2 1/2 SM VISIBILITY RECENTLY AT PICKLE LAKE.            
 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL CHILLY NEAR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE PICKLE LAKE           
 ONTARIO 12Z SOUNDING REPORTING AROUND -17C. CLOSER TO HOME...A                 
 1018MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...             
 WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD TO A 1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA. THE            
 COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR (SEE 12Z INL SOUNDING) AND DEVELOPING                 
 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS HELPED TO              
 GREATLY DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.           
 HOWEVER...WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS              
 ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.               
 FARTHER TO THE WEST...A STRONG SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN DIVING SOUTHWARD             
 THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE                
 WHEICH EXTENDS UP INTO ALASKA. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE OVER            
 THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS YET A STRONGER SHRTWV...AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT           
 WILL BRING THE ARCTIC AIR IN FOR THE WEEKEND.                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...                                               
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LES WITH APPROACHING SHRTWV.                          
 WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING              
 SHRTWV AND SURFACE TROUGHS...WILL SET UP AN INTERESTING SCENARIO               
 FOR TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN THIS EVENING IN THE INTERIOR            
 AND OVER ONTARIO...LAND BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO SET UP. THESE LAND               
 BREEZES WILL HELP TO FOCUS STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE                
 TROUGH...WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE              
 LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE NEAR GRAND MARAIS AROUND 03Z. THIS                     
 CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY (AS               
 NOTED WITH PICKLE LAKES RAOB) AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD HELP                
 GENERATE SOME HEAVY LES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OMEGA INDUCED FROM              
 THE LAKE EFFECT WILL INTERSECT A 50-75MB DEEP SNOW GROWTH LAYER PER            
 MODEL SOUNDINGS. EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE LAND BREEZE IS WILL DICTATE            
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVERGENCE AND HEAVY SNOW GOES...PARTICULARLY IN            
 THE WESTERN U.P. THE 13 KM RUC...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON                
 LATEST LES EVENTS...SUGGESTS THE BAND WILL FOCUS IN THE AREA BETWEEN           
 ROCKLAND AND BARAGA. HOWEVER THE NAM...REGIONAL CANADIAN AND LOCAL             
 HIGH RESOLUTION WRF RUNS KEEP THE BAND FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS                  
 PAINESDALE AND HOUGHTON. THE LATEST 15Z AND 18Z RUC RUNS APPEAR TO             
 BE FOLLOWING THE NAM SCENARIO TOO. SINCE ALL SOLUTIONS SEEM                    
 PLAUSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE. WHEREVER IT SETS              
 UP...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 9 TO 12 HOURS                 
 BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES NORTHWARD...AND GIVEN GREAT SNOW             
 GROWTH ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO HOIST WARNINGS EARLIER FOR NE           
 ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR            
 KEWEENAW AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON FOR BOTH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BAND             
 PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE OTHER BANDS THAT ARE AIDED BY UPSLOPE.                  
 KEWEENAW COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS              
 THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY GET STUCK THERE. DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH A             
 WARNING...THOUGH...AS THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY FROM THAT           
 OBSERVED TONIGHT.                                                              
 FOR THE EASTERN CWA...UPGRADED THE WATCH EARLIER TO A WARNING AS               
 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH THE CONVERGENCE AREA. LOCAL             
 HIGH RESOLUTION WRF RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 0.60 OF QPF UNDER THIS                  
 CONVERGENCE...WHICH GIVEN RECENT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WOULD SUGGEST            
 UP TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH AT THE PRESENT                   
 TIME...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF AMOUNTS THAT HIGH                     
 OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXTRA CONVERGENCE HELP FROM LAND BREEZES              
 OFF ONTARIO.                                                                   
 AWAY FROM THE LES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...CONDITIONS LOOK               
 FAIRLY QUIET. ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS DECK OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO            
 MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE SHRTWV FORCING WHICH              
 HAS HELPED PRODUCE THE LIGHT SNOW AT PICKLE LAKE IS PROGGED TO MOVE            
 OFF TO THE E. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR                
 SYNOPTIC SNOW. ALSO REMOVED POPS FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW ON WED SINCE MUCH           
 OF THE CWA IS PROGGED TO BE IN WEAK SHRTWV RIDGING BETWEEN TONIGHTS            
 SHRTWV AND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHRTWV TROUGH.                                     
 GOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE               
 MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THEM.                                                 
 .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                     
 ON WED NGT...SHRTWV TROF/DEEPER MSTR WL BE PUSHING TO THE E WED                
 NGT...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS LLVL FLOW VEERING MORE W OVERNGT W-E IN ITS           
 WAKE AND GRDLY BECMG MORE ACYC WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDGING/DNVA/               
 H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC. THESE EVENTS SHOULD CAUSE LES BANDS NEAR THE TIP           
 OF THE KEWEENAW TO MIGRATE TO THE S IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM FCST                  
 SHARPER LLVL CNVGC. HOWEVER...SHIFTING WINDS/MORE TRANSIENT CNVGC/             
 NEGATIVE DYNAMICS MIGHT LIMIT SN ACCUMULATION WED NGT. WL GO WITH              
 LIKELY POPS OVER THE W FM ONTONAGON COUNTY TO THE N. SINCE GUIDANCE            
 SHOWS FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC REMAINING TO THE N OF THE ERN ZNS...WL GO             
 WITH JUST CHC POPS NR LK SUP E OF P53. OTRW...ANY PTCHY -SN/                   
 FLURRIES ACCOMPANYING SHRTWV WL TEND TO DIMINISH OVERNGT ONCE DEEPER           
 MSTR/DYNAMICS EXIT TO THE E. PREFER LOWER GOING FCST MIN TEMPS WITH            
 PROSPECT OF DRYING ALF LATE AS SHOWN ON GFS FCST SDNGS EVEN THOUGH             
 BKN-OVC SC SHOULD LINGER UNDER DVLPG SUBSIDENCE INVRN.                         
 EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON THU UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG                     
 DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LLVL FLOW                 
 SLOWLY BACKING MORE SW. EVEN THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF SC WL LINGER                
 UNDER MID LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN ON GFS FCST SDNGS....WL           
 RESTRICT MENTION OF POPS ON THU TO AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP IN                 
 EXPECTED WSW FLOW. PREFER SOMEWHAT LOWER GFS MOS TEMPS GIVEN                   
 EXPECTED CLD COVER/H85 TEMPS -15C TO -17C OR SO.                               
 AS SHRTWV FM THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI            
 AND THEN INTO ERN LK SUP BY 00Z FRI ACCOMPANINED BY SOME FAIRLY                
 HEALTHY DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/12 HR H5 HGT FALLS APRCHG 80M...              
 EXPECT A RELATIVELY WDSPRD SN TO DVLP...WITH THE HEAVIEST SN FALLING           
 OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK WHERE LLVL             
 NW FLOW WL OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AS H85                
 TEMPS TUMBLE IN THE AFTN AND GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW DEEP MSTR THRU THE            
 TROP. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE WITH CATEGORICAL            
 POPS FM IWD-CMX-HURON MTNS ON FRI. LATER SHIFTS WL LIKELY NEED TO              
 ISSUE HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT EVEN THOUGH LATEST NCEP FCST SN AMTS             
 JUST A FEW INCHES.                                                             
 BITTER COLD WL BE THE MAIN WX STORY THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN            
 PERSISENT HI AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE NAO/POSTIVE PNA DEEP UPR TROF                  
 CENTERED BTWN ERN PAC RDG NOSING INTO AK AND BLOCKING UPR HI IN THE            
 N ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SLGT TIMING DIFFERENCES...           
 00Z>12Z MID RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 0Z GFS                
 REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTING SFC LO CROSSING LK SUP ON FRI (SEE              
 ABV) IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING WAVE OF ARCTIC AIR. CORE OF ARCTIC COLD            
 WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -28C TO -32C RANGE FCST BY BOTH 06Z GFS/12Z              
 ECMWF TO INVADE SAT AND PERSIST INTO TUE. GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN             
 SHOWS AVERAGE H1000-5 THKNS ARND 488DM WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN EXCESS           
 OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO NORMAL. AS A COMPARISON TO RECENT COLD            
 WAVES...H85 TEMPS IN THE EARLY FEB 1996 COLD WAVE WERE -30C TO                 
 -35C...SO THIS EVENT MAY END UP MARGINALLY WARMER THAN THE COLD                
 OBSVD IN EARLY FEB 1996. GIVEN AGREEMENT AMONG OPS MODELS/ENSEMBLE             
 MEAN...WL GO TOWARD THE LO END OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE                     
 WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH SOME MIN TEMPS AOB -30F/MAX TEMPS              
 REMAINING BLO 0F A GOOD BET FOR INTERIOR AREAS. ALTHOUGH LES WL BE             
 ONGOING NR LK SUP WITH CORE OF COLD PASSING OVER LK SUP ESPECIALLY             
 IN NW FLOW BELTS TO THE S OF LK INDUCED TROF NR LK SUP...SUCH FRIGID           
 TEMPS WL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR FVRBL SN GROWTH.                                 
 COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ002-003              
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ006-007             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ001                 
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM WED MIZ084                
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (SHORT TERM)                                                                
 KC (LONG TERM)                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1207 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 16Z WATER VAPOR LOOP...RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS                 
 SHOWED UPPER TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF SE CANADA INTO THE GREAT               
 LAKES...WITH THE CENTER BEING A 498 DAM POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON               
 BAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VORTEX WAS A SHRTWV OVER FAR NORTHERN             
 ONTARIO...ACCOMPANIED BY A 90 KT JET STREAK NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE.               
 THIS SHRTWV IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH              
 EXTENDS FROM NE MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO JUST N OF PICKLE                
 LAKE. ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM NEARBY CANADIAN RAOBS DO NOT                 
 INDICATE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SHRTWV...SURFACE OBS AND VISIBLE           
 SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A STRATUS DECK ALONG AND BEHIND THIS               
 TROUGH...WITH OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT. 850MB TEMPS              
 ARE STILL CHILLY NEAR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO               
 SOUNDING REPORTING AROUND -17C. CLOSER TO HOME...A 1018MB HIGH                 
 PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN FROM LAKE                  
 SUPERIOR...WHICH EXTENDS OFF A 1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA.             
 THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR (SEE 12Z INL SOUNDING) AND DEVELOPING             
 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS HELPED TO              
 GREATLY DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.           
 IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS CLEAR WITH BANDS              
 ONLY EXTENDING OUT ABOUT 25 MILES OFFSHORE. NONETHELESS...WITH THE             
 GREATER FETCH LENGTH OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO            
 HELP WITH MOISTENING... SOME BANDS STILL CONTAIN 24-28DBZ                      
 REFLECTIVITIES ON THE CURRENT RADAR LOOP.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS DEVELOPING LES TONIGHT                                  
 FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WIND FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE             
 WEST AS BOTH THE SHRTWV AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN                       
 ONTARIO...AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...DRIFT               
 SOUTH. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE BANDS OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO CONTINUE            
 MOVING EASTWARD...THEN LIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WHEN THE               
 WIND IS PROGGED TO TURN DUE WEST. GOING FORECAST HAS THE SCENARIO              
 HANDLED WELL AND ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE SNOW                 
 COVERAGE AREA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.                                           
 THE WIND SWITCHING TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING SHRTWV             
 AND SURFACE TROUGHS...SETS UP AN INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT.             
 AS TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN THIS EVENING IN THE INTERIOR AND OVER                
 ONTARIO...LAND BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO SET UP. THESE LAND BREEZES WILL           
 HELP TO FOCUS STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS           
 PROGGED TO REACH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR                  
 SHORELINE NEAR GRAND MARAIS AROUND 03Z. THIS CONVERGENCE...COMBINED            
 WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY (AS NOTED WITH PICKLE LAKES              
 RAOB) AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME HEAVY                    
 LES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OMEGA INDUCED FROM THE LAKE EFFECT WILL             
 INTERSECT A 50-75MB DEEP SNOW GROWTH LAYER PER MODEL SOUNDINGS.                
 EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE LAND BREEZE IS WILL DICTATE HOW FAR SOUTH THE           
 CONVERGENCE AND HEAVY SNOW GOES...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN U.P.             
 THE 13 KM RUC...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON LATEST LES                      
 EVENTS...SUGGESTS THE BAND WILL FOCUS IN THE AREA BETWEEN ROCKLAND             
 AND BARAGA. HOWEVER THE NAM AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF RUNS KEEP            
 THE BAND FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS PAINESDALE AND HOUGHTON. THE LATEST            
 15Z RUC APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING THE NAM SCENARIO TOO. SINCE ALL                
 SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE.                
 WHEREVER IT SETS UP...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 9            
 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES NORTHWARD...AND GIVEN            
 GREAT SNOW GROWTH ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO HOIST WARNINGS FOR           
 NE ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ADVISORIES ARE POSTED             
 FOR KEWEENAW AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON FOR BOTH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING              
 BAND PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE OTHER BANDS THAT ARE AIDED BY UPSLOPE.             
 FOR THE EASTERN CWA...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING AS MODELS ARE            
 IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH THE CONVERGENCE AREA. LOCAL HIGH                   
 RESOLUTION WRF RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 0.60 OF QPF UNDER THIS                       
 CONVERGENCE...WHICH GIVEN RECENT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WOULD SUGGEST            
 UP TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH AT THE PRESENT                   
 TIME...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF AMOUNTS THAT HIGH                     
 OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXTRA CONVERGENCE HELP FROM LAND BREEZES              
 OFF ONTARIO.                                                                   
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 LARGE SCALE SHOWS RIDGE OVER PACIFIC COAST INTO WESTERN CANADA AND             
 ALASKA WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES EASTERN CANADA INTO GREAT LAKES.              
 THIS PATTERN WILL STAY AROUND FOR FORSEEABLE FUTURE. TROUGH ONLY               
 DEEPENS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND MOST LIKELY STAYING THAT           
 WAY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY COLD AIR WILL DECEND INTO MUCH OF              
 THE CONUS...INCLUDING THE UPR GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE THAT HAS           
 PRODUCED STEADY LIGHT SNOW OVR MAINLY SOUTH CWA SINCE YDY AFTN IS              
 MOVING INTO N LWR MI. SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT ALLOWED LK           
 EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY TREMENDOUSLY SINCE LATE LAST                  
 EVENING. HOWEVER...BANDS OF MOST INTENSE SNOW ARE ISOLATED. ONE BAND           
 WAS AFFECTING SW SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. NOTHING HEARD           
 FM THIS AREA YET...BUT WITH ECHOES PINGING 12KFT ON MQT RADAR OUT              
 OVR N LK MI STAYING STATIONARY OVR SAME AREA FOR 5 HOURS OR SO                 
 SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS OF A FOOT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. THAT             
 AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS JUST             
 OFF SFC ARE INCREASING FM NORTH. MEANWHILE...STRONG SNOW BAND OVR              
 LAKE SUPERIOR...THAT PRODUCED 6 INCHES OF SNOW LAST EVENING AT                 
 COPPER HARBOR PER LOCAL MEDIA REPORT...MIGRATED SOUTH AND HIT THE              
 HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL UPR MI WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. BAND WAS                 
 PRETTY NARROW...BUT VERY INTENSE...DROPPING 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN ONE            
 HOUR AT THE NWS OFFICE IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP. FORTUNATELY...BAND IS             
 TRANSITORY AND IS SHIFTING STEADILY INLAND. OPTED TO COVER QUICK               
 MOVING BAND WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS INSTEAD OF AN ADVISORY. EXPECT           
 HEAVIEST SNOW...AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...TO DIMINISH BY MID                 
 MORNING IF NOT SOONER. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREV GRIDS FOR TODAY WAS            
 TO KEEP LIKELY POPS OVR NE CWA INTO THE AFTN THOUGH SNOW INTENSITY             
 SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY THEN.                                               
 TURNING TO TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR CHURCHILL MANITOBA                
 TRUCKS SSE AND REACHES NE LK SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD            
 OF SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO 10KFT WILL SPIKE              
 LES AGAIN. GFS APPEARED TOO WEST WITH BLYR WINDS CONSIDERING                   
 CLOSENESS OF TROUGH...SO FOLLOWED NAM/RUC13/CAN GEM WITH IDEA OF               
 NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON N HALF OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD WHITEFISH BAY              
 AND MORE W WINDS REMAINING ON W HALF OF LK SUPERIOR OVR KEWEENAW.              
 THIS RESULTS IN A QUITE STRONG AREA OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER             
 FAR NE CWA TOWARD WHITEFISH POINT IN APX CWA. ANY DOMINANT BAND                
 STREAMING INTO THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE ADDED BENEFIT OF MAXIMUM               
 OVER WATER FETCH OVR THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. ONE OR              
 TWO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SEEM PROBABLE IN THESE AREAS WITH SNOWFALL             
 RATES SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS RELATIVELY           
 SMALL...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF LES ARE THERE. SO...COORD               
 WITH APX AND ISSUED A LK EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR ALGER AND LUCE                  
 COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WED FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF GRAND MARAIS.               
 FARTHER WEST OVER KEWEENAW...DID NOT GO WITH WATCH DUE TO THAT AREA            
 BEING FARTHER DISPLACED FM SYNOPIC LIFT/MOISTURE AND A SHORTER OVER            
 WATER FETCH. IF CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS IN VCNTY OF APOSTLE ISLANDS            
 (AS GFS INDICATES) THEN HEAVY SNOW COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF KEWEENAW           
 PENINSULA AS WELL. JUST HAVE ADVY AMOUNTS IN GRIDS ATTM. WINDS                 
 BACKING TO WSW SHOULD PUSH MOST OF HEAVY SNOW OFFSHORE OF ALGER/LUCE           
 BY LATE MORNING ON WED...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THE                 
 KEWEENAW.                                                                      
 ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI FORECAST PERIODS.             
 SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE THU-THU NIGHT AHEAD OF              
 PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO BRING IN BITTER COLD AIR LATE FRI.            
 SOME CONCERN THAT FRI AFTN-FRI EVENING PERIOD MAY BE QUITE HAZARDOUS           
 DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW...INCREASING WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...             
 REDUCED VISIBILITIES. NOT TO MENTION...TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND NO            
 DOUBT WIND CHILL ISSUES. LOWERED TEMPS IN FRI NIGHT-SAT PERIODS FOR            
 WEST HALF INTERIOR. WINDS BY LATE FRI NIGHT ARE MOSTLY FM WEST                 
 WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY OVER LAND TRAJECTORIES...LIMITING LAKE               
 SUPERIOR MODERATION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EFFICIENT TRANSPORT OF BITTER           
 COLD AIR BANKED TO THE WEST AND NORTH INTO THE UPR LAKES. MEX                  
 GUIDANCE FOR FRI NIGHT SHOWED -10F TO -15F INLAND INTERIOR WHICH               
 SEEMED FEASIBLE AND THAT WOULD LIKELY MEAN SOME LOCALES SAT WILL               
 NOT HIT ZERO INLAND. IN FACT...LATEST GFS...WHICH AGREES WITH THE              
 ECMWF...SHOWS TEMPS AT KIWD REMAINING BLO ZERO FM FRI NIGHT THROUGH            
 MON. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING COLD IN HWO.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ002-003              
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ006-007             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ001                 
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM WED MIZ084                
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING EAST 1/2 LAKE SUPERIOR.                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (UPDATE)                                                                    
 JLA (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 940 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 RADAR INDICATED A PROMINENT LES BAND FROM THE LEELANAU PENINSULA TO            
 SE UPPER MI. MESO-LOW CHARACTER TO THE BAND INTO THE AREA FROM                 
 KESC-KISQ WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES IN AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY VERY           
 FAVORABLE FOR SNOW GROWTH. 00Z AREA TAMDAR SNDGS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPS           
 NEAR -17C WITH MOIST PROFILE OR NO INVERSION TO 700 MB(KPLN). THE              
 00Z NAM WAS CATCHING ON TO THIS FEATURE WHILE THE 18Z RUC13 HAD BEST           
 GRASP OF THE LES SCENARIO. THE SHRTWV OVER NE WI IS EXPECTED TO SAG            
 SE HELPING TO DRAG THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD RESULT            
 IN A STRONG ENOUGH NRLY FLOW TO PUSH THE BAND OUT OF THE CWA BY                
 06Z-09Z. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE                  
 BAND(PER REPORT NEAR PT AUX BARQUES)...EXPECT LCL AMOUNTS INTO THE             
 4-8 INCH RANGE. SO...LES WARNING WAS POSTED FOR DELTA-SCHOOLCRAFT              
 COUNTIES.                                                                      
 FARTHER NORTH...LES WAS ALSO INCREASING JUST OFFSHORE FROM MARQUETTE           
 AND WERE MOVING INLAND AS NE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE RUC13               
 ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST LOW LVL CONV WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FORM               
 KP59-STANNARD ROCK VCNTY SOUTHWARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE                 
 SIGNIFICANT LES INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS            
 SCENARIO IS MORE LIMITED...GIVEN UNORGANIZED LOOK OF THE LES ON                
 RADAR. SO...WILL ONLY MODERATELY BOOST GOING SNOWFALL AMOUNT FCST              
 INTO THIS AREA.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 JLB                                                                            
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007.                          
 ...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO MOVE INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER               
 MICHIGAN ON FRI...                                                             
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RDG               
 OVER THE ERN PAC AND NW NOAM WHILE DOWNSTREAM A BROAD TROF IS NOTED            
 MUCH OF CANADA EXTENDING INTO GREAT LAKES AND NE U.S. THIS HIGH                
 AMPLITUDE PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THIS WEEK WHICH WILL             
 ALLOW FOR POLAR VORTEX TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPR GREAT            
 LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. IN THE SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM           
 DIVING JUST TO OUR S HAS BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TODAY TO MUCH OF WI AND            
 SOME FLURRIES TO SW UPR MI. WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE N-NE THIS               
 EVENING BEHIND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LES BACK ONSHORE                 
 TONIGHT INTO TUE.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                               
 THE MAIN CONCERN IS LES FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE.                                  
 SFC/MARINE OBS SHOWS WINDS ALREADY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO NE               
 OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN LINE WITH FCST OF RUC AND LOCAL MESOSCALE            
 MODELS. MID-LAKE LES CONVERGENCE BAND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO           
 COME ONSHORE THIS EVENING INTO WRN AND NCNTRL COUNTIES AS WINDS                
 SHIFT TO N-NE BEHIND CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW DIVING S. EXPECT A BURST               
 OF HEAVIER SNOW AS CONVERGENCE BAND COMES THROUGH AND THEN LOOK FOR            
 SOME WIND-PARALLEL BANDS SETTING UP BEHIND IT INTO TUE.                        
 WEAK ENHANCEMENT THIS EVENING FROM MID-LVL TROF PASSAGE COULD BOOST            
 SNOW AMTS SOME...BUT SHIFTING WINDS WILL NOT FOCUS HEAVY BANDS OVER            
 ANY ONE AREA FOR TOO LONG. BEST CONVERGENCE WITH N-NE FLOW WOULD               
 TEND TO FAVOR MQT COUNTY WHERE MESOSCALE MODEL QPF AROUND .10-.15              
 INCH COULD BRING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES AT SOME HIGHER             
 TERRAIN LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS IN                  
 GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE             
 ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTY...GENERALLY EXPECT 1-2". DID BUMP POPS TO           
 CATEGORICAL FOR WEST AND NCNTRL COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH GOOD CYCLONIC            
 FLOW AND POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROF.                              
 LOOKS LIKE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END QUICKLY FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY           
 MIDDAY TUE AS FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AND BACKS MORE WRLY WITH               
 BUILDING SFC RDG FROM THE NRN PLAINS. LEFT HIGHER POPS OVER ERN                
 COUNTIES DUE TO LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW TO W FLOW.             
 .LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH MON)...                                          
 TUE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHRTWV OVER THE NE PORTION OF NUNAVUT                
 MOVING SSE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO             
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE NAM BRINGS THIS SHRTWV MUCH CLOSER TO             
 THE CWA THAN ALL THE OTHER MODELS (NEAR WAWA BY 06Z)...BUT BELIEVE             
 THIS IS TOO CLOSE GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE ACROSS THE            
 UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO MONTANA. THEREFORE WILL           
 FOLLOW THE GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN AND OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS...WHICH              
 KEEP THE SHRTWV FARTHER TO THE NE. BASICALLY...AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES            
 DOWN...VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DPVA HELP TO PRODUCE A MID              
 CLOUD DECK WHICH MOVES OVER THE CWA. AT THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A                
 SURFACE RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND A WEAK TROUGH               
 MOVING S ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...A                     
 CONVERGENT LAKE EFFECT BAND LOOKS LIKELY...AIDED BY LAND BREEZES.              
 RIGHT NOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF              
 LUCE COUNTY AND EASTERN ALGER COUNTY...WHERE OUR LOCAL HIGH                    
 RESOLUTION WRF-ARW RUN PRINTS OUT UP TO 0.40 OF AN INCH OF QPF                 
 BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH...BUT GIVEN A FAVORABLE LAKE             
 ENHANCED SETUP WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE...HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL                   
 SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY             
 ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND IN THE HIGH QPF AREA SINCE THESE CONTINUE TO           
 LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS             
 EVENT IN CASE IT AMOUNTS TO MORE. GOING FORECAST TEMPS SEEM                    
 REASONABLE.                                                                    
 WED...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO NEBRASKA BY           
 00Z WHILE A WEAKER EXTENSION OF THIS SHRTWV EXTENDS UP INTO WESTERN            
 LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO SWITCH THE             
 LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW MORE WSW...THEREFORE ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT              
 BAND OVER THE NE CWA TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
 WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE KEWEENAW AREA THOUGH...GIVEN THAT THE WIND              
 FLOW IS STILL NOT TRUE SW...THEREFORE LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED              
 THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN THE APPROACHING SHRTWV AND STILL            
 PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...FEEL IT IS STILL PRUDENT TO              
 HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. HOWEVER ANY SYNOPTIC SNOW RIGHT NOW           
 DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR THAT THEY              
 WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO TUE AS SW FLOW ALLOW 850MB TEMPS           
 TO CLIMB TO ABOUT 3-5C HIGHER.                                                 
 WED NIGHT AND THU...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV TROUGH IS SHOWN BY THE           
 GFS/UKMET/ECMWF TO DROP S THROUGH CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY           
 THU EVENING (MORE MENTIONED ABOUT THIS SHRTWV IN THE NEXT PERIOD               
 DISCUSSION). THIS SHRTWV WILL CAUSE THE PREVIOUS WEAKER SHRTWV                 
 TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO CROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY IN            
 THE EVENING. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL AROUND -16C BEHIND THE                      
 SHRTWV...AND WITH A LIGHT TO NEARLY LAND-BREEZE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL           
 WIND FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CHANCES REMAINS FOR THE WESTERN U.P. WED               
 NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE REST OF THE CWA DRY...WITH SKIES BECOMING                 
 PARTLY CLOUDY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. BECAUSE           
 OF THE CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS...DROPPED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.           
 ON THU...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH              
 THE CWA...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE             
 KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE               
 TROUGH...BUT AS THE POPS STATE...AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT. HAVE ALSO              
 KEPT 30 POPS IN FOR THE SAME LAKE EFFECT AREA MENTIONED WED                    
 NIGHT...BUT WITH THE 950MB AND SURFACE WINDS TURNING TRUE SW AHEAD             
 OF THE SURFACE LOW...THINK MUCH OF THE SNOW MAY END UP BEING IN THE            
 MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WED GIVEN             
 SIMILAR 850MB READINGS AND SOME PARTIAL SUN IN THE MORNING TO HELP             
 OUT.                                                                           
 THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...THE WORD FOR THIS PERIOD IS COLD.                      
 OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE THE THEME THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN OVER THE             
 PAST WEEK OF SUGGESTING THAT THE POLAR VORTEX CURRENTLY SITUATED               
 NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN...DUE           
 TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO EASTERN ALASKA AND           
 A STRONG SHRTWV NORTH OF ALASKA RIDING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE               
 RIDGE. THIS SHRTWV MAY RESULT IN AN INTERESTING FRI FOR THE CWA AS             
 MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT BOTH IT AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW (THE            
 ONE THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA ON THU) ARE              
 STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE               
 SHRTWV MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA THU              
 NIGHT. THEN ON FRI AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS UPPER MI...THE             
 COLD AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID -20S C               
 WILL BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE CWA ON STRONG NW WINDS...POSSIBLY EVEN           
 GALES ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN HOW COLD IT IS...LAKE EFFECT             
 THAT THE DOES FORM ONCE THE COLD AIRMASS MOVES IN WILL LIKELY                  
 CONSIST OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES...AND WITH THE WIND...BLOWING SNOW WITH            
 VERY LOW VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME A CONCERN. COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO           
 CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE POLAR             
 VORTEX HEADS TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS FROM THE              
 GFS/ECMWF THAT THE VORTEX WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOME               
 POINT ON SUN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C. IF WINDS CAN           
 BACK TO THE WEST AT NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR AND DIMINISH TO                      
 LIGHT...AND SKIES CAN CLEAR...-20S F TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.                  
 HOWEVER...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON ALL THREE PARAMETERS AT              
 THIS POINT AND RESULTS IN GOING NOW LOWER THAN -15F AT THIS POINT.             
 OTHERWISE...WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE WEEKEND            
 GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE           
 NORTHERN U.P.. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE VORTEX WILL           
 STAY AROUND...WITH THE 06Z/12Z GFS MUCH QUICKER ON EXITING IT (SUN             
 NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH STILL HAS IT NEAR WAWA MON              
 EVENING. PREFER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF...WHICH IS CLOSE            
 TO HPC PROGS.                                                                  
 WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING COLD IN THE HWO. ON A FINAL            
 NOTE...THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THE ARCTIC AIR MIGHT HANG AROUND             
 FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AFTER MON...RAISING SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL           
 FOR PIPES UNDERGROUND FREEZING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE                
 SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXIST ON THE                
 GROUND. WILL WAIT AND SEE ON THIS...BUT AT A MINIMUM...EVERYONE                
 SHOULD TRY TO MAKE SURE ANY EXPOSED PIPES ARE INSULATED.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEST 1/2 LAKE SUPERIOR.                           
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10Z FOR MIZ013-014.                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 346 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 ...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO MOVE INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER               
 MICHIGAN ON FRI...                                                             
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RDG               
 OVER THE ERN PAC AND NW NOAM WHILE DOWNSTREAM A BROAD TROF IS NOTED            
 MUCH OF CANADA EXTENDING INTO GREAT LAKES AND NE U.S. THIS HIGH                
 AMPLITUDE PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THIS WEEK WHICH WILL             
 ALLOW FOR POLAR VORTEX TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPR GREAT            
 LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. IN THE SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM           
 DIVING JUST TO OUR S HAS BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TODAY TO MUCH OF WI AND            
 SOME FLURRIES TO SW UPR MI. WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE N-NE THIS               
 EVENING BEHIND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LES BACK ONSHORE                 
 TONIGHT INTO TUE.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                               
 THE MAIN CONCERN IS LES FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE.                                  
 SFC/MARINE OBS SHOWS WINDS ALREADY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO NE               
 OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN LINE WITH FCST OF RUC AND LOCAL MESOSCALE            
 MODELS. MID-LAKE LES CONVERGENCE BAND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO           
 COME ONSHORE THIS EVENING INTO WRN AND NCNTRL COUNTIES AS WINDS                
 SHIFT TO N-NE BEHIND CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW DIVING S. EXPECT A BURST               
 OF HEAVIER SNOW AS CONVERGENCE BAND COMES THROUGH AND THEN LOOK FOR            
 SOME WIND-PARALLEL BANDS SETTING UP BEHIND IT INTO TUE.                        
 WEAK ENHANCEMENT THIS EVENING FROM MID-LVL TROF PASSAGE COULD BOOST            
 SNOW AMTS SOME...BUT SHIFTING WINDS WILL NOT FOCUS HEAVY BANDS OVER            
 ANY ONE AREA FOR TOO LONG. BEST CONVERGENCE WITH N-NE FLOW WOULD               
 TEND TO FAVOR MQT COUNTY WHERE MESOSCALE MODEL QPF AROUND .10-.15              
 INCH COULD BRING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES AT SOME HIGHER             
 TERRAIN LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS IN                  
 GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE             
 ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTY...GENERALLY EXPECT 1-2". DID BUMP POPS TO           
 CATEGORICAL FOR WEST AND NCNTRL COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH GOOD CYCLONIC            
 FLOW AND POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROF.                              
 LOOKS LIKE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END QUICKLY FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY           
 MIDDAY TUE AS FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AND BACKS MORE WRLY WITH               
 BUILDING SFC RDG FROM THE NRN PLAINS. LEFT HIGHER POPS OVER ERN                
 COUNTIES DUE TO LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW TO W FLOW.             
 .LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH MON)...                                          
 TUE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHRTWV OVER THE NE PORTION OF NUNAVUT                
 MOVING SSE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO             
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE NAM BRINGS THIS SHRTWV MUCH CLOSER TO             
 THE CWA THAN ALL THE OTHER MODELS (NEAR WAWA BY 06Z)...BUT BELIEVE             
 THIS IS TOO CLOSE GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE ACROSS THE            
 UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO MONTANA. THEREFORE WILL           
 FOLLOW THE GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN AND OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS...WHICH              
 KEEP THE SHRTWV FARTHER TO THE NE. BASICALLY...AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES            
 DOWN...VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DPVA HELP TO PRODUCE A MID              
 CLOUD DECK WHICH MOVES OVER THE CWA. AT THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A                
 SURFACE RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND A WEAK TROUGH               
 MOVING S ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...A                     
 CONVERGENT LAKE EFFECT BAND LOOKS LIKELY...AIDED BY LAND BREEZES.              
 RIGHT NOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF              
 LUCE COUNTY AND EASTERN ALGER COUNTY...WHERE OUR LOCAL HIGH                    
 RESOLUTION WRF-ARW RUN PRINTS OUT UP TO 0.40 OF AN INCH OF QPF                 
 BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH...BUT GIVEN A FAVORABLE LAKE             
 ENHANCED SETUP WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE...HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL                   
 SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY             
 ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND IN THE HIGH QPF AREA SINCE THESE CONTINUE TO           
 LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS             
 EVENT IN CASE IT AMOUNTS TO MORE. GOING FORECAST TEMPS SEEM                    
 REASONABLE.                                                                    
 WED...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO NEBRASKA BY           
 00Z WHILE A WEAKER EXTENSION OF THIS SHRTWV EXTENDS UP INTO WESTERN            
 LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO SWITCH THE             
 LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW MORE WSW...THEREFORE ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT              
 BAND OVER THE NE CWA TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
 WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE KEWEENAW AREA THOUGH...GIVEN THAT THE WIND              
 FLOW IS STILL NOT TRUE SW...THEREFORE LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED              
 THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN THE APPROACHING SHRTWV AND STILL            
 PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...FEEL IT IS STILL PRUDENT TO              
 HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. HOWEVER ANY SYNOPTIC SNOW RIGHT NOW           
 DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR THAT THEY              
 WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO TUE AS SW FLOW ALLOW 850MB TEMPS           
 TO CLIMB TO ABOUT 3-5C HIGHER.                                                 
 WED NIGHT AND THU...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV TROUGH IS SHOWN BY THE           
 GFS/UKMET/ECMWF TO DROP S THROUGH CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY           
 THU EVENING (MORE MENTIONED ABOUT THIS SHRTWV IN THE NEXT PERIOD               
 DISCUSSION). THIS SHRTWV WILL CAUSE THE PREVIOUS WEAKER SHRTWV                 
 TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO CROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY IN            
 THE EVENING. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL AROUND -16C BEHIND THE                      
 SHRTWV...AND WITH A LIGHT TO NEARLY LAND-BREEZE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL           
 WIND FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CHANCES REMAINS FOR THE WESTERN U.P. WED               
 NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE REST OF THE CWA DRY...WITH SKIES BECOMING                 
 PARTLY CLOUDY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. BECAUSE           
 OF THE CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS...DROPPED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.           
 ON THU...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH              
 THE CWA...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE             
 KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE               
 TROUGH...BUT AS THE POPS STATE...AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT. HAVE ALSO              
 KEPT 30 POPS IN FOR THE SAME LAKE EFFECT AREA MENTIONED WED                    
 NIGHT...BUT WITH THE 950MB AND SURFACE WINDS TURNING TRUE SW AHEAD             
 OF THE SURFACE LOW...THINK MUCH OF THE SNOW MAY END UP BEING IN THE            
 MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WED GIVEN             
 SIMILAR 850MB READINGS AND SOME PARTIAL SUN IN THE MORNING TO HELP             
 OUT.                                                                           
 THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...THE WORD FOR THIS PERIOD IS COLD.                      
 OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE THE THEME THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN OVER THE             
 PAST WEEK OF SUGGESTING THAT THE POLAR VORTEX CURRENTLY SITUATED               
 NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN...DUE           
 TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO EASTERN ALASKA AND           
 A STRONG SHRTWV NORTH OF ALASKA RIDING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE               
 RIDGE. THIS SHRTWV MAY RESULT IN AN INTERESTING FRI FOR THE CWA AS             
 MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT BOTH IT AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW (THE            
 ONE THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA ON THU) ARE              
 STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE               
 SHRTWV MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA THU              
 NIGHT. THEN ON FRI AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS UPPER MI...THE             
 COLD AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID -20S C               
 WILL BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE CWA ON STRONG NW WINDS...POSSIBLY EVEN           
 GALES ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN HOW COLD IT IS...LAKE EFFECT             
 THAT THE DOES FORM ONCE THE COLD AIRMASS MOVES IN WILL LIKELY                  
 CONSIST OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES...AND WITH THE WIND...BLOWING SNOW WITH            
 VERY LOW VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME A CONCERN. COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO           
 CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE POLAR             
 VORTEX HEADS TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS FROM THE              
 GFS/ECMWF THAT THE VORTEX WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOME               
 POINT ON SUN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C. IF WINDS CAN           
 BACK TO THE WEST AT NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR AND DIMINISH TO                      
 LIGHT...AND SKIES CAN CLEAR...-20S F TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.                  
 HOWEVER...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON ALL THREE PARAMETERS AT              
 THIS POINT AND RESULTS IN GOING NOW LOWER THAN -15F AT THIS POINT.             
 OTHERWISE...WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE WEEKEND            
 GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE           
 NORTHERN U.P.. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE VORTEX WILL           
 STAY AROUND...WITH THE 06Z/12Z GFS MUCH QUICKER ON EXITING IT (SUN             
 NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH STILL HAS IT NEAR WAWA MON              
 EVENING. PREFER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF...WHICH IS CLOSE            
 TO HPC PROGS.                                                                  
 WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING COLD IN THE HWO. ON A FINAL            
 NOTE...THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THE ARCTIC AIR MIGHT HANG AROUND             
 FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AFTER MON...RAISING SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL           
 FOR PIPES UNDERGROUND FREEZING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE                
 SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXIST ON THE                
 GROUND. WILL WAIT AND SEE ON THIS...BUT AT A MINIMUM...EVERYONE                
 SHOULD TRY TO MAKE SURE ANY EXPOSED PIPES ARE INSULATED.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEST 1/2 LAKE SUPERIOR.                         
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                              
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1142 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 NO BIG CHANGES ON THE UPDATE.                                                  
 BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES/LIGHT -SN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WI             
 BDR BORDER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS BEST 275K ISENTROPIC ASCENT FM           
 CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING INTO NW WI WILL STAY GENERALLY S OF FCST AREA.           
 WINDS SHIFTING NE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LES CONVERGENCE BAND           
 NOW OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ONSHORE THIS EVENING.                    
 HIGH TEMPS IN TEENS GENERALLY STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON                
 BASED ON LOCAL SNDGS.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL              
 FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                         
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC              
 NORTHWEST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH BLANKETING MUCH OF THE EASTERN                 
 CANADA AND NORTHEAST CONUS. A LOW CENTER SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE             
 OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SEVERAL WEAK               
 SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANY THIS LOW CENTER AND ARE OVER WISCONSIN...                  
 SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS             
 DEPICT A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI                
 RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT             
 LAKES. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID LEVEL ONE IS OVER NORTHWEST              
 MINNESOTA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS LIES ALONG             
 THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING             
 THIS SYSTEM IS OVER WISCONSIN...MINNESOTA...AND THE DAKOTAS.                   
 KMQT-88D AND SAT IR SHOW WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS PERSISTING OVER           
 THE EASTERN U.P.                                                               
 THE LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO JUST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS                  
 THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE ACCOMPANYING Q-VECTOR                     
 CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE               
 U.P. BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN AROUND               
 -19C ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAINLY             
 BE FOCUSED OVER WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE U.P. THE SURFACE           
 LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL DIVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID DAY AND             
 THEN MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON.                   
 CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT EARLY               
 THEN BECOME MORE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH              
 THE DAY. THE SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT TO                
 AROUND 925MB BY MID DAY AND TO AROUND 850MB BY DUSK. CONDITIONS                
 FAVOR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND                
 ADJACENT LANDS THIS MORNING. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL ADIABATIC LIFT           
 WITH THE HIGHER INVERSION...LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S OF 22C...AND WEAK             
 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE OF LAKE EFFECT               
 SNOWS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKE BY LATE                
 AFTERNOON SO NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE           
 THE HEAVIEST LES. THE LIMITING FACTORS SEEM TO BE THE LACK OF ANY              
 DEEP MOISTURE AND THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THUS PLAN TO KEEP            
 SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING OVER THE EAST AND ADD SYSTEM SNOWS                 
 SPREADING INTO THE AREA ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER.                            
 THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT                   
 SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH            
 CENTRAL CANADA SWINGS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL ONTARIO.             
 THE SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME           
 SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN                
 PLAINS. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOCUS WILL SHIFT INTO LAKE HURON.                 
 SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE             
 DELTA-T`S OVER THE LAKE WILL BE AROUND 22C AND THE LOWEST INVERSION            
 LEVEL WILL CONTINUE AROUND 850MB. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AT            
 THE LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LITTLE DRIER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE           
 WILL ALSO BE WEAK. THUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE              
 NORTHERN U.P. AND SYSTEM SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE WRAP AROUND            
 THE SURFACE LOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM              
 PRODUCE SNOWS OVER THE SOUTH.                                                  
 AS ONE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY ANOTHER WILL               
 FOLLOWING INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT            
 INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE             
 INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE            
 WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE MORNING. AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN                 
 MISSOURI ON TUESDAY THE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BACK                 
 WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL FILL SLOWLY AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN                   
 MANITOBA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND -19C. MODELS           
 SHOWING 925MB WINDS INDICATING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEP MOISTURE            
 WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER...LES SHOULD PERSIST. THE BACKING WINDS              
 WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR TO DETERMINE WHO WILL BE GETTING THE LES.              
 SINCE IT WILL BE SHIFTING NO ONE AREA SHOULD BE GETTING THE                    
 SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.                                                     
 A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT              
 FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE DEEPER SHORTWAVE LATE. MODELS SHOWING PREVALENT           
 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL              
 PUSH INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A LOW MOVES INTO               
 SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OF THE              
 U.P...WHILE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THE WINDS WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE               
 WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW IN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS                
 ALONG WITH THE HIGH WILL DRAW MORE DEEP MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE           
 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL STILL BE AROUND -18C. CONDITIONS LOOK                   
 FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE              
 SHORE WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW.                                            
 ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY                      
 ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. 850MB TEMPERATURES             
 OVER THE LAKE WILL REMAIN AROUND -19C. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER            
 ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAWING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST             
 AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL                
 SQUEEZE MORE SNOW OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                                  
 ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY              
 NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST AFTER THE FROPA. 850MB                    
 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER (-15C TO 17C) ACROSS           
 THE LAKE BUT STILL COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT                
 SNOWS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. WHERE LES IS PRONE TO OCCUR WITH A WEST           
 NORTHWEST FLOW. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL SETTLE OUT OF SOUTH               
 CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE DRAGGING A               
 COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC                 
 ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SQUEEZE MORE LIGHT SNOW              
 OUT OVER THE AREA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A LITTLE             
 WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL REACH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ON               
 THURSDAY.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 VOSS (UPDATE)                                                                  
 DLG (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 345 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL              
 FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                         
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC              
 NORTHWEST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH BLANKETING MUCH OF THE EASTERN                 
 CANADA AND NORTHEAST CONUS. A LOW CENTER SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE             
 OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SEVERAL WEAK               
 SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANY THIS LOW CENTER AND ARE OVER WISCONSIN...                  
 SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS             
 DEPICT A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI                
 RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT             
 LAKES. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID LEVEL ONE IS OVER NORTHWEST              
 MINNESOTA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS LIES ALONG             
 THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING             
 THIS SYSTEM IS OVER WISCONSIN...MINNESOTA...AND THE DAKOTAS.                   
 KMQT-88D AND SAT IR SHOW WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS PERSISTING OVER           
 THE EASTERN U.P.                                                               
 THE LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO JUST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS                  
 THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE ACCOMPANYING Q-VECTOR                     
 CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE               
 U.P. BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN AROUND               
 -19C ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAINLY             
 BE FOCUSED OVER WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE U.P. THE SURFACE           
 LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL DIVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID DAY AND             
 THEN MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON.                   
 CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT EARLY               
 THEN BECOME MORE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH              
 THE DAY. THE SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT TO                
 AROUND 925MB BY MID DAY AND TO AROUND 850MB BY DUSK. CONDITIONS                
 FAVOR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND                
 ADJACENT LANDS THIS MORNING. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL ADIABATIC LIFT           
 WITH THE HIGHER INVERSION...LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S OF 22C...AND WEAK             
 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE OF LAKE EFFECT               
 SNOWS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKE BY LATE                
 AFTERNOON SO NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE           
 THE HEAVIEST LES. THE LIMITING FACTORS SEEM TO BE THE LACK OF ANY              
 DEEP MOISTURE AND THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THUS PLAN TO KEEP            
 SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING OVER THE EAST AND ADD SYSTEM SNOWS                 
 SPREADING INTO THE AREA ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER.                            
 THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT                   
 SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH            
 CENTRAL CANADA SWINGS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL ONTARIO.             
 THE SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME           
 SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN                
 PLAINS. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOCUS WILL SHIFT INTO LAKE HURON.                 
 SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE             
 DELTA-T`S OVER THE LAKE WILL BE AROUND 22C AND THE LOWEST INVERSION            
 LEVEL WILL CONTINUE AROUND 850MB. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AT            
 THE LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LITTLE DRIER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE           
 WILL ALSO BE WEAK. THUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE              
 NORTHERN U.P. AND SYSTEM SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE WRAP AROUND            
 THE SURFACE LOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM              
 PRODUCE SNOWS OVER THE SOUTH.                                                  
 AS ONE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY ANOTHER WILL               
 FOLLOWING INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT            
 INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE             
 INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE            
 WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE MORNING. AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN                 
 MISSOURI ON TUESDAY THE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BACK                 
 WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL FILL SLOWLY AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN                   
 MANITOBA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND -19C. MODELS           
 SHOWING 925MB WINDS INDICATING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEP MOISTURE            
 WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER...LES SHOULD PERSIST. THE BACKING WINDS              
 WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR TO DETERMINE WHO WILL BE GETTING THE LES.              
 SINCE IT WILL BE SHIFTING NO ONE AREA SHOULD BE GETTING THE                    
 SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.                                                     
 A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT              
 FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE DEEPER SHORTWAVE LATE. MODELS SHOWING PREVALENT           
 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL              
 PUSH INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A LOW MOVES INTO               
 SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OF THE              
 U.P...WHILE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THE WINDS WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE               
 WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW IN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS                
 ALONG WITH THE HIGH WILL DRAW MORE DEEP MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE           
 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL STILL BE AROUND -18C. CONDITIONS LOOK                   
 FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE              
 SHORE WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW.                                            
 ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY                      
 ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. 850MB TEMPERATURES             
 OVER THE LAKE WILL REMAIN AROUND -19C. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER            
 ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAWING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST             
 AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL                
 SQUEEZE MORE SNOW OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                                  
 ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY              
 NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST AFTER THE FROPA. 850MB                    
 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER (-15C TO 17C) ACROSS           
 THE LAKE BUT STILL COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT                
 SNOWS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. WHERE LES IS PRONE TO OCCUR WITH A WEST           
 NORTHWEST FLOW. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL SETTLE OUT OF SOUTH               
 CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE DRAGGING A               
 COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC                 
 ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SQUEEZE MORE LIGHT SNOW              
 OUT OVER THE AREA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A LITTLE             
 WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL REACH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ON               
 THURSDAY.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DLG                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 1155 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...WILL                  
 GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST                 
 RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS A                
 LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR               
 OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL DRIVE MVFR CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION                 
 BETWEEN 06-09Z WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES. WINDS TO BACK EVEN             
 FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST 12-18Z AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER LOW...WHICH              
 WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS IN THE DTW AREA...WITH AC             
 DECK 080-100 ADVANCING INTO THE DTW AREA 15-21Z...AHEAD OF NEXT                
 SYSTEM. ANTICIPATE GOOD ISENTROPIC SATURATION 21Z-00Z AS NOTED ON              
 280K SURFACE...AND GIVEN PRECIPITATION ALREADY OCCURRING IN CENTRAL            
 MINNESOTA. BEST LEFT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW                    
 TRACK...WITH SNOW SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION BY 00Z AND                    
 CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. BEST LIFT WILL FOCUS SOUTH OF FNT WHERE                
 PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 00-06Z...MAINLY MVFR                    
 CONDITIONS FROM FNT NORTHWARD.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007                           
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                           
 SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MIGRATING FROM THE VICINITY OF 8-MILE              
 ROAD TO SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE THIS EVENING.  LAKE EFFECT            
 SNOW CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE THUMB DOWN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF                
 THE ADJACENT LAKE HURON COUNTIES WITH RECENT SIGNS OF WEAKENING                
 ACROSS HURON/TUSCOLA COUNTIES. HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS               
 BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND               
 UPPER LEVEL LOW...THERE COULD BE ONE MAIN BAND TO IMPACT THE M 25              
 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY 03Z. THIS IS                 
 SUGGESTED BY THE 18Z RUC AND TO SOME EXTENT BY THE 18Z NAM (ALBEIT             
 WEAKER) SO WILL HAVE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY/WARNING FOR A FEW MORE             
 HOURS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.                               
 FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT TAKING LAKE EFFECT             
 BAND WELL OFFSHORE.  THIS COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME                 
 DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH PTCLOUDY CONDITIONS.  THIS COULD GIVE THE CWA           
 A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK RATHER QUICKLY (ESPECIALLY               
 WHERE FRESH SNOW COVER HAS OCCURRED TODAY) BEFORE LEVELING OFF                 
 OVERNIGHT.  AS FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND LINGERING            
 INSTABILITY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRATUS DECK              
 MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL             
 FLURRIES.  WILL SHADE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BLEND           
 OF THE MAV/FWC THAN THE MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS A BIT WARM                    
 CONSIDERING DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.                      
 LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY                                         
 COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ON                
 MONDAY. THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TENDS TO SUPPORT A SLOWER                
 ONSET OF SNOW WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM, MORE IN LINE              
 WITH THE NAM KEEPING THINGS DRY THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER OVERCOMING              
 DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BECOME LIKELY                
 ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT AFTER               
 MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND             
 NORTHERN THUMB. THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL GET A BOOST FROM             
 LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE            
 I 96 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BENEFIT FROM SHORT WAVE FORCING IN           
 THE FORM OF DCVA EARLY AND DEFORMATION LATER IN THE NIGHT.                     
 ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LOOKS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN INCH OR TWO             
 THE BEST TARGET RANGE. THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE WAVE BRINGING                   
 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 1 G/KG AT 700 MB. THIS PARAMETER BEING                
 ABOUT EQUAL AMONG THE MODELS INDICATES QPF NEAR A TENTH INCH FROM              
 THE NAM AND GFS LOOKS BETTER THAN LIGHTER AMOUNTS OFFERED FROM OTHER           
 SOLUTIONS.                                                                     
 SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,            
 AS WILL A CHANCE DUE TO A NARROW WINDOW OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE THUMB.           
 HOWEVER, IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING           
 THE AFTERNOON AS WELL, EVEN AS THE WIND TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.            
 THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT, AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS               
 FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE CHANCE GOING THROUGH THE DAY IN SE            
 MICHIGAN.                                                                      
 THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING OUR AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS                 
 TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLD NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST BUT DRY           
 AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE                  
 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR WILL ELIMINATE                 
 SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BUT PROBABLY NOT STRATUS                       
 DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SLOWLY BACKING WIND DIRECTION                 
 WILL TEND TO KEEP THE TRI CITIES, FLINT, AND THUMB IN THE CLOUDS               
 WITH 925 MB TEMPS AROUND -13C. SECTIONS SOUTH OF THAT TO THE OHIO              
 BORDER WILL BREAK OUT IN SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW                
 BECOMES MORE FROM INDIANA RATHER THAN HAVING A LAKE TRAJECTORY.                
 THE NEXT WAVE IN THE PERPETUAL NW FLOW ALOFT IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE                
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY THE GFS. THIS SOLUTION IS STRONGER THAN THAT                
 OFFERED BY THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH SHEARS THE WAVE THROUGH LOWER                   
 MICHIGAN FASTER AND MORE WEAKLY. HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING IN THE                 
 PLAINS AND ROCKIES MIGHT SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SHORT               
 WAVE BUT EITHER WAY IT IS WORTH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW, EVEN THE               
 STRONGER GFS CAN ONLY PRODUCE A FEW 100THS OF QPF BOTH WEDNESDAY               
 NIGHT AND THURSDAY.                                                            
 THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND             
 KEEP COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL YET ANOTHER                 
 SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME               
 MODEST TEMPERATURE MODERATION IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,             
 BUT THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE                
 LARGE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY... LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS               
              FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                 
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...BGM                                                               
 LONG TERM....BT                                                                
 AVIATION.....GSS                                                               
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                            
 900 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS           
 THE OZARKS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.              
 THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE                
 HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH              
 THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CONTINUES PROVIDE CLOUD COVER OVER              
 OUR CWA. LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE SFC              
 DEW POINTS AS MOST OBS ARE REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE 20S NOW. OUR            
 AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN SLOWLY OVERNIGHT BUT LATEST RUC               
 ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO GET ANY                   
 MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INTO OUR CWA UNTIL LATER...TOWARD MORNING.            
 HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AND              
 PARISHES BUT BACKED WX GRIDS TO AFTER 3 AM. FCST MORNING LOWS LOOK             
 GOOD BUT HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP CURVES AS CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED COOLING           
 THIS EVENING. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 EXPECT THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM             
 APPROACHES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH                  
 CEILINGS THIS EVENING AROUND 20KFT LOWERING TO BETWEEN 6KFT AND 8KFT           
 DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH            
 LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TUESDAY.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MS...NONE.                                                                     
 LA...NONE.                                                                     
 AR...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 22                                                                             
</pre> ms                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 907 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MAKING THE TURN AS WINDS BACK MORE TO                    
 WEST/SWLY AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND                 
 WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED BAND ORIENTATION FOR THE REST OF               
 TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NAM AND RUC IS SUGGESTING THAT THE                 
 BAND WILL SWEEP THROUGH ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES THIS AFTN                
 BEFORE SETTING UP ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE             
 IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WARNING ACROSS ONONDAGA AND MADISON. WILL                 
 WAIT AND SEE HOW THE BAND SETS UP THIS AFTN AND WAIT FOR 12Z                   
 SOUNDINGS, THUS CONTINUING ALL WARNINGS BEFORE MAKING DECISIONS                
 ON CHANGES, IF ANY, FOR THE AFTN PACKAGE.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 653 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND               
 FLURRIES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION.                       
 AS THE FLOW BACKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AN              
 ORGANIZED SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT KSYR/KRME.               
 AT KSYR, MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL DETERIORATE LATE             
 THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR THEN LIFR TOWARD EVENING. AFTER 06Z, THE                 
 BAND MAY LIFT NORTH OF TERMINAL WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO                   
 MVFR. AT KRME, VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN MVFR WITH                      
 CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR TOWARD EVENING THEN LIFR AFTER 02Z.                    
 FOR KITH/KBGM, MVFR OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z DUE TO             
 SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS. AFTER 15Z, VFR FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH             
 STRATO CU AROUND 3.5K FT. FOR KAVP/KELM, OCCASIONAL MVFR THROUGH               
 14Z DUE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. AFTER 15Z, VFR             
 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS AT 4K FT. NORTHWEST WINDS               
 10-12 KNOTS WILL BECOME WESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN                     
 SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  RRM                                                      
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 454 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
 NORTH TO NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN SETTING OFF                 
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SOME FINGER LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD BE CAUSING                
 LOW VSBYS IN NARROW BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW. FLOW WILL BEOME BETTER             
 ALIGNED LATER THIS MORNING AFTER A LARGE SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW                
 PULL FURTHER NE. ALSO IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.                        
 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LES WARNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MANY             
 SIGNS OF A SINGLE BAND SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO             
 THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. MULTIBANDS THIS MORNING WITH 300                
 FLOW SHIFTING TO 290 THIS AFTERNOON THEN 280 TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN             
 ONEIDA. MOISTURE INCREASES MIDDAY TO BRING THE INVERSION TO 10K.               
 LAKE EFFECT INSTABILITY GOES TO EXTREME. MODELS ALSO SHOW A LARGE              
 BAND OF OMEGA WITH A CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS                
 COULD EXCEED A FOOT WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THIS AFTN             
 AND EVE.                                                                       
 LATE TONIGHT WEAK WAA WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE EFFECT BUT NOT                      
 COMPLETELY SHUT IT DOWN IN NRN ONEIDA. A WEAK SFC LOW AND SHORT                
 WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NY AND PA TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED             
 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.                                                        
 THE SFC LOW WILL EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT PULLING COLDER AIR BACK INTO               
 TEH CWA. WEAK LAKE EFFECT TUES NGT INTO WED NW FLOW SHIFTS FROM NW             
 TO W SO ANOTHER SINGLE BAND POSSIBLE LATE WED. THIS EVENT WILL BE              
 WEAKER THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. TAC                                             
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 316 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007/                                            
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
 THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX AT 500 MB WILL BRING             
 COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG RANGE WITH A PATTERN           
 DOMINATED BY SEVERAL WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND CHCS FOR LAKE EFFECT             
 SNOW SHOWERS. 12Z GFS BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL SYSTEM AT           
 THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH MAIN CHC FOR SHSN FROM WEAKER LOW MOVING             
 THRU GREAT LAKES AND SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST             
 THAN PREVIOUS RUN. STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CERTAINTY FOR EITHER             
 SOLUTION.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-018-           
      036-037.                                                                  
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                            
 940 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE SECOND ARCTIC SURGE INTO CENTRAL            
 NC IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND           
 TRIANGLE. THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA IS PRODUCING A               
 BAND OF BROKEN MID CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AOA 7.5KFT...WHICH MATCHES             
 UP WELL WITH THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 700-800MB SEEN ON THE             
 00Z/31 GSO RAOB. LIGHT WINDS AND ABSENCE OF CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED                 
 TEMPERATURES IN THE NE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN TO COOL FASTER               
 THAN OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING...WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY ROSE          
 A FEW DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS             
 WHERE THE CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS HAVE PROMOTED MIXING. RUC TIMING           
 OF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z APPEARS           
 REALISTIC...WITH CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS                   
 GRADUALLY FALLING OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST CAA WILL OCCUR AFTER                
 DAYBREAK...BEHIND THE VIGOROUS VORT. MAX CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST            
 INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER CAA WILL BE STRONG           
 ENOUGH TO RESULT IN UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN THE NW PIEDMONT AS             
 CURRENT MIN GRIDS INDICATE...AS MIXING WILL BE SUFFICE AS NOT TO               
 ALLOW FURTHER COOLING. WILL RAISE MINS TONIGHT IN THE WEST TO LOWER            
 20S...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 230 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
 TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: THE DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT MID                
 LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...                 
 INTRODUCING THE POLAR AIR MASS BENEATH WHICH DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE              
 SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO. EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING             
 THEN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO NW. LOWS             
 19 TO 26. WEDNESDAY SHOULD START OFF WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE... THEN           
 MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER NM AND W TX WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA...           
 RESULTING IN INCREASED CLOUDS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THICKNESSES              
 INDICATE HIGHS OF 37 TO 43.                                                    
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS IN EARNEST           
 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET            
 LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THE 12Z NAM HAS SPED UP ITS                
 PRECIP ONSET CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION.               
 HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS BASED ON ITS BETTER CONSISTENCY. OVERALL           
 PATTERN LOOKS TO BE AN IN SITU DAMMING EVENT WITH A MILLER B                   
 CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE PARENT HIGH CONTAINS           
 AND WILL BE DEPOSITING SOME VERY COLD DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...               
 SINCE IT IS TRANSITORY IN NATURE AND WILL BE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE             
 ATLANTIC... THE LOW LEVEL FEED OF COLD AIR IS UNLIKELY TO BE                   
 SUFFICIENTLY LONG LASTING THURSDAY FOR ANY MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATION...           
 AND EXPECT ACCRUAL TO BE SHUT OFF BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE BY THURSDAY           
 AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WINTRY               
 WEATHER POTENTIAL... BUT HOLD OFF ON SPECIFIC AMOUNTS.                         
 GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ONSET OF            
 PRIMARILY SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET IN THE WEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC             
 THURSDAY MORNING... WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX IN THE               
 EAST. SOUNDINGS START OUT NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL... BUT AT THIS              
 TIME... WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG PVA OR JET FORCING... IT LOOKS              
 LIKE PRECIP RATES WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY MORNING TO                
 ALLOW FOR BURSTS OF SNOW THAT COULD LEAD TO NOTABLE ACCUMULATION...            
 ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL CERTAINLY MUST BE WATCHED. THE MID LEVELS              
 THEN WARM RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON... LEADING TO A QUICK TRANSITION            
 TO MOSTLY RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE LOWS OF 23-27                    
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH           
 HIGHS THURSDAY 32-39... AND ABOUT 2 DEGREES LOWER FOR LOWS THURSDAY            
 NIGHT. WITH A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN BEHIND THE SPINUP COASTAL LOW AND           
 PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FRIDAY MORNING... EXPECT SLOW CLEARING             
 DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGHS 45-52... ALTHOUGH IF CLEARING IS               
 MUCH SLOWER FRIDAY... THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO COME DOWN MORE IN             
 LATER FORECASTS. -GIH                                                          
 LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
 BROAD L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN DRY AND CHILLY           
 CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE              
 OFFER VARYING TIMING SOLUTIONS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN              
 STREAM. THE ECMWF KEEPS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH           
 OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SPREAD MOISTURE WELL NWWD            
 INTO THE COLDER AIR SUN BUT THE RECENT RUN HAS RETRACTED AND HAS               
 DEEPEST MOISTURE S-SE OF AREA. THE CANADIAN PLACES MORE EMPHASIS ON            
 THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A MILLER A SCENARIO ON SATURDAY WITH LOW              
 TRACKING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WITH             
 THE LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD A SIMILAR SCENARIO, PLAN TO KEEP                
 SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.                                   
 GFS ADVECTS BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO REGION DAY 6 AND 7 WITH LOW LEVEL           
 THICKNESSES FALLING INTO THE 1220S BY TUESDAY MORNING. SAW A SIMILAR           
 TREND YESTERDAY FOR MON AND IT HAS SINCE RECOVERED INTO THE 1250S.             
 NEEDLESS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL              
 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST WEATHER EXPECTED MON INTO TUE.             
 POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE COLDER BY DAY6/7 BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO           
 FINE TUNE. -WSS                                                                
 AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
 DRY AIR MASS OVER REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z                
 WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS TOWARD 18Z WED AHEAD OF               
 APPROACHING/DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. REINFORCING SHOT OF             
 COLD DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT                 
 ASSOCIATED WITH NEW SURGE WILL CROSS REGION BETWEEN 00-05Z. THIS               
 WILL RESULT IN A STEADY NW WIND OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS AROUND           
 20KTS. -WSS                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...CBL                                                               
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 809 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS WITH TEMPERATURES. SFC LOW LOCATED OVER                 
 YORKTON SASK AT 00Z AND THIS IS RIGHT ON WITH MODEL LOCATION.                  
 USING 21Z AND INCOMING 00Z RUC FOR GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW DROPPING                 
 SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE GRAND FORKS AREA AROUND 12Z. THIS ALSO FITS              
 THE INCOMING 00Z NAM GUIDANCE AS WELL. CANADIAN RADARS AND METARS              
 SHOW LIGHT SNOW NORTHEAST OF SFC LOW CENTER...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF             
 SNOW FURTHER WEST ASSOC WITH VORT MAX AND 500 MB HEIGHT FALL                   
 CENTER IN SE ALBERTA/SW SASK. THE VORT OUT WEST WILL DROP INTO ERN             
 MT AND SW ND DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND NOT GREATLY AFFECT OUR               
 AREA. LIGHT SNOW ASSOC WITH SFC LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY             
 AFFECT NORTHEAST ND AFTER 08Z AND THEN SPREAD THROUGH THE FCST                 
 AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THRU MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. DID              
 SLIGHT POP TIMING RE-ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS THINKING. AS FOR                     
 TEMPS...SOME DROP SEEN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA WITH WADENA               
 AT ZERO...BUT OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WIND AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS              
 HOLDING TEMPS UP WITH ONLY MINIMAL FALL SINCE 22Z. WITH THICKER                
 CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WOULD EXPECT LITTLE                  
 CHANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT AND MIGHT RISE IN SPOTS. DID ADJUST TEMP               
 GRIDDS TONIGHT THRU 18Z WED FOR THIS THINKING.                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                        
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 CURRENTLY...ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS COMBINED WITH SOME MIXING IS                  
 ALLOWING DECENT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A MORE                  
 SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DECK MOVES FROM MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO                
 NW ND AHEAD OF VORT/SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. WITH                   
 RESPECT TO GUIDANCE...WILL TEND TOWARDS THE GFS AND ITS                        
 PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS AND ITS RECENT CONSISTENCY.                    
 TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FIRST OF TWO CLIPPERS DESCENDS THIS EVENING                
 INTO NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS               
 INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GO WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS                       
 PROGRESSING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM                
 ALONG WITH THICKENING CLOUD AND SW WIND MAY YIELD NON- DIURNAL                 
 TEMP TREND OVERNIGHT...THIS CAN BE REFINED BY THE EVENING CREW                 
 MEMBERS. DON`T SEE MUCH COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS FIRST SYSTEM SO                 
 MINIMAL PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS                 
 TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY NUDGES IN BEHIND DEPARTING CLIPPER                 
 LATER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE POTENT                 
 SYSTEM LURKING TO THE NORTH TAKES AIM ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR                 
 THURSDAY.                                                                      
 THURSDAY/FRIDAY...NEXT SYSTEM MORE LOADED IN TERMS OF LIFT...GRADIENT          
 AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. THESE FACTORS COMPUTE TO LIKELY POPS THURSDAY       
 AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ROBUST SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY              
 NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SOLID LINKAGE (ALBEIT PERHAPS NOT AS               
 STRONG AS PRIOR RUNS) WILL PRODUCE VENTURI EFFECT FOR THE VALLEY.              
 ALL IN ALL THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR A BLOWING SNOW/VERY                
 LOW VISIBILITY EVENT PRIMARILY OVER OPEN COUNTRY...H925 LEVEL                  
 WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KTS LIKELY TO TRANSLATE DOWN TO 20-25 KTS WITH               
 HIGHER GUSTS AT SURFACE...WITH AREA OF MAXIMUM PRESSURE RISES                  
 LOOKING NOW TO BE OVER CENTRAL ND.                                             
 SATURATED COLUMN TO AT LEAST 600 MB SHOULD PERSIST ON                          
 FRIDAY...WINDS DIMINISH...BUT EVEN WITH LACK OF OTHER                          
 PARAMETERS...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SNOW SHOWER                   
 ACTIVITY ALIVE.                                                                
 LONG TERM (SAT THROUGH TUE)...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY               
 GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EXTENDED FORECAST. 500MB TROF AND SURFACE LOW               
 START MOVING E OF THE AREA ON SAT...KEEPING A NW FLOW OVER THE                 
 REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND WILL              
 CONTINUE ON SAT...UNTIL THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN             
 FOR SUN. THEN...THE COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN...BUT WITH LESS WIND              
 FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ON MON...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS               
 MOVING E AND S-SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP...KEEPING THE COLD AIR MASS              
 OVER THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY.  AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...KEPT               
 MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.                               
 FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
 RIDDLE/                                                                        
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                      
 1012 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                         
 WILL SEND OUT A QUICK...LATE EVENING ZONE UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP                 
 THE WORDING FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC FRONT HAS               
 PUSHED EAST OF THE SUSI VALLEY...TAKING THE HEAVY SQUALLS WITH IT.             
 WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SNOWS ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS WILL               
 BRING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW                  
 HOURS WITHIN THE SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST.          
 PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND                 
 LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE A FEW                
 MORE INCHES OVERNIGHT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE LAKE EFFECT/SNOW                  
 ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS.                                                    
 ELSEWHERE...EXPECT FLURRIES AND A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER                    
 OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY 700-500 HPA THERMAL TROUGH MOVES SE FROM              
 THE GLAKES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE                 
 CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. OVC LAYER WILL BREAK UP AFTER                 
 MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE                
 UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ADVECT EAST VIA A DOWNSLOPE LLVL FLOW.                     
 TRIMMED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BY 2-4 DEG F IN MANY                    
 LOCATIONS.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 728 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                
 AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 50 CROSSING THE SUSQ                
 VALLEY...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG...ALBEIT COMPACT UPPER SHORT               
 WAVE MOVE EAST OVER THE NCENT MTNS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SNOW                    
 SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS EARLY TONIGHT.                          
 ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT                  
 WHERE A MESO-B MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND CORRESPONDING                      
 EAST/WEST BELT OF ENHANCED 850-700 HPA OMEGA WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL              
 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.                                                            
 SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED FLURRIES                   
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING.            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 MESO ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW JUST WEST OF BFD AT 18Z...WITH THE COLD                
 FRONT MOVING THRU SWRN PA. RUC SHOWS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE           
 AIR...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM AND T-TOTALS                
 TOPPING 50...HELPING TRIGGER THE CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS              
 MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE            
 AFTER ABOUT 21Z ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WITH THE FRONT              
 EXPECTED TO CLEAR MY EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z.                                     
 AFTER THE FROPA...WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW               
 REGIME WITH LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOWS IN THE                 
 WEST...AND ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF TO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND            
 FLURRIES THE FURTHER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND LAURELS ONE GETS.               
 ONLY CONCERN IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER-AIR PORTION OF             
 THE OCCLUDED FRONT HANGS TOUGH FOR A TIME INTO NW PA...ENHANCING THE           
 CONVERGENCE THERE INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOWS UP AS A WELL DEFINED            
 THERMAL RIDGE UP THRU ABOUT 850MB IN ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.             
 THEY SHIFT THIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.                                    
 WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW WILL BE OVER             
 WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE WE SHUD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN                   
 FLURRIES.                                                                      
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
 UPPER TROFFING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE LONG           
 TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
 EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL                    
 TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                               
 MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY...BUT TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN STAND            
 OUT. A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO             
 AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK                  
 COMPLEX...WITH VARYING RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A SOUTHERN STREAM           
 TROF IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.                
 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROF FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE       
 REGION LATER FRIDAY. MUCH YET DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL              
 LOW AND ANY PHASING THAT MAY TAKE PLACE BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS. AT            
 THIS TIME...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE ACROSS ALL OF            
 THE CWA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                
 REGION...EVEN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHERE SNOWFALL SO FAR             
 THIS SEASON IS LESS THAN AN INCH TOTAL.                                        
 A PRONOUNCED ARCTIC TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST              
 AREA ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS              
 WINTER.                                                                        
 AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                          
 THE AFTERNOON`S WIDESPREAD IFR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW                
 SHOWERS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE                
 UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW                  
 DEVELOPS. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THOUGH...JST/BFD WILL NOT SHARE IN              
 THE IMPROVEMENT AS UPSLOPE AND PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE CONSPIRE TO              
 KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MAINLY DOWN BELOW 3000/3 WITH FREQUENT SNOW                
 SHOWERS BRINGING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. WILL PROB SEE AOO/UNV/IPT              
 IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MOSTLY UNLIMITED VIS WITH ONLY OCNL               
 SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS AFTER 00Z...WITH VFR                 
 DEVELOPING SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. STILL A                
 QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FAR SERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MUCH                    
 INCLEMENT WX AT ALL AS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOISTURE STARVED AND              
 DOWN-SLOPING FLOW WILL ONLY HELP IN MAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER             
 ACTIVITY DRY UP BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THINK           
 THERE IS A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS THRU THE           
 EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT CIG/VIS SHUD NOT POSE MUCH OF A CHALLENGE             
 THERE.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-                
 005-010.                                                                       
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.                        
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ041-042-046-                   
 053.                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...LAMBERT                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                      
 728 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                               
 AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 50 CROSSING THE SUSQ                
 VALLEY...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG...ALBEIT COMPACT UPPER SHORT               
 WAVE MOVE EAST OVER THE NCENT MTNS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SNOW                    
 SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS EARLY TONIGHT.                          
 ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT                  
 WHERE A MESO-B MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND CORRESPONDING                      
 EAST/WEST BELT OF ENHANCED 850-700 HPA OMEGA WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL              
 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.                                                            
 SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED FLURRIES                   
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING.            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 MESO ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW JUST WEST OF BFD AT 18Z...WITH THE COLD                
 FRONT MOVING THRU SWRN PA. RUC SHOWS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE           
 AIR...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM AND T-TOTALS                
 TOPPING 50...HELPING TRIGGER THE CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS              
 MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE            
 AFTER ABOUT 21Z ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WITH THE FRONT              
 EXPECTED TO CLEAR MY EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z.                                     
 AFTER THE FROPA...WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW               
 REGIME WITH LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOWS IN THE                 
 WEST...AND ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF TO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND            
 FLURRIES THE FURTHER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND LAURELS ONE GETS.               
 ONLY CONCERN IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER-AIR PORTION OF             
 THE OCCLUDED FRONT HANGS TOUGH FOR A TIME INTO NW PA...ENHANCING THE           
 CONVERGENCE THERE INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOWS UP AS A WELL DEFINED            
 THERMAL RIDGE UP THRU ABOUT 850MB IN ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.             
 THEY SHIFT THIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.                                    
 WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW WILL BE OVER             
 WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE WE SHUD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN                   
 FLURRIES.                                                                      
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
 UPPER TROFFING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE LONG           
 TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
 EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL                    
 TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                               
 MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY...BUT TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN STAND            
 OUT. A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO             
 AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK                  
 COMPLEX...WITH VARYING RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A SOUTHERN STREAM           
 TROF IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.                
 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROF FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE       
 REGION LATER FRIDAY. MUCH YET DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL              
 LOW AND ANY PHASING THAT MAY TAKE PLACE BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS. AT            
 THIS TIME...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE ACROSS ALL OF            
 THE CWA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                
 REGION...EVEN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHERE SNOWFALL SO FAR             
 THIS SEASON IS LESS THAN AN INCH TOTAL.                                        
 A PRONOUNCED ARCTIC TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST              
 AREA ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS              
 WINTER.                                                                        
 AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                          
 THE AFTERNOON`S WIDESPREAD IFR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW                
 SHOWERS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE                
 UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW                  
 DEVELOPS. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THOUGH...JST/BFD WILL NOT SHARE IN              
 THE IMPROVEMENT AS UPSLOPE AND PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE CONSPIRE TO              
 KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MAINLY DOWN BELOW 3000/3 WITH FREQUENT SNOW                
 SHOWERS BRINGING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. WILL PROB SEE AOO/UNV/IPT              
 IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MOSTLY UNLIMITED VIS WITH ONLY OCNL               
 SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS AFTER 00Z...WITH VFR                 
 DEVELOPING SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. STILL A                
 QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FAR SERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MUCH                    
 INCLEMENT WX AT ALL AS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOISTURE STARVED AND              
 DOWN-SLOPING FLOW WILL ONLY HELP IN MAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER             
 ACTIVITY DRY UP BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THINK           
 THERE IS A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS THRU THE           
 EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT CIG/VIS SHUD NOT POSE MUCH OF A CHALLENGE             
 THERE.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-                
 005-010.                                                                       
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.                        
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ011-012-041-                   
 042-046-053.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...LAMBERT                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 914 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR                   
 SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...WITH THE BEST RADAR                  
 RETURN CURRENTLY OVER HASKELL COUNTY AND THROCKMORTON COUNTY.                  
 SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN MAINLY NORTHEAST.               
 HOWEVER...LATEST RUC DATA INDICATE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST                 
 OVERNIGHT. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.                             
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SURFACE                
 NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN               
 TO SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS                
 OF BKN010-020 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/09Z              
 ..WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 31/13Z. SCT SHRA               
 WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/09Z...POSSIBLY                 
 MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.  21                          
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                         
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE REDEVELOPING FROM THE WEST WITH UPSLOPE                
 FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON (AT LEAST SOUTH OF                       
 INTERSTATE 20). WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS                 
 OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME LIFT INDICATED AHEAD OF THE               
 SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.                                            
 MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
 SHEARS OUT AND MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...AND RIDING OVER THE COLD              
 FRONT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD MORNING. GFS                    
 FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THIS TO BE SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE IN             
 THE BIG COUNTRY...IF IT OCCURS. DO NOT ANTICIPATED ACCUMULATIONS.              
 WENT A LITTLE LOWER ON TEMPERATURES (FROM MAV GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE             
 BIG COUNTRY WHERE IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR CLOUD COVER TO               
 COME IN TONIGHT.                                                               
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 BEST SHORTWAVE/LIFT COMES IN WEDNESDAY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES                   
 PROFILES INDICATE THIS TO BE MAINLY RAIN...THROUGH ITS POSSIBLE                
 SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.                  
 RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN              
 ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THIS WEEKEND.                
 MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS                             
 WEEKEND...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO.                              
 ECMWF DIFFER IN HANDLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HAS               
 COLD FRONT MONDAY...WHICH BUILDS IN VERY STRONGLY THROUGH                      
 TUESDAY. THE GFS PUSHES MOST OF THE COLD AIR TO THE EAST ON                    
 MONDAY...WITH ONLY A WEAKER COLD FRONT. IT THEN BRINGS WEST CENTRAL            
 TEXAS IN SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY...BEFORE A SECOND                    
 STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE COLDER              
 ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW...AS A LOT OF TIMES FRONT GETS CHANNELS                 
 AGAINST THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  31  48  37  48 /  20  30  50  20                                      
 SAN ANGELO  34  51  40  55 /  20  20  50  20                                   
 JUNCTION  37  49  44  60 /  20  20  50  20                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 23/HUBER                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                        
 1257 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .DISCUSSION...SFC LOW OVER NWRN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY WITH HIGH          
 PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. NRLY LLVL WINDS COMBINED WITH               
 SW WINDS ALOFT MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. SFC WINDS                
 WILL VEER TO THE SE THEN S WED AS A SFC LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SIERRA            
 MADRE ORIENTAL. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED LLVL           
 MOISTURE PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES...SCHC POPS...AREAS             
 OF FG AND PATCHY DZ. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SFC LOW                  
 MOVES E ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO CWA ON NW WINDS. A                   
 SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS OR JUST              
 S OF CWA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK                    
 COASTAL TROUGHING TO PRODUCE CHC POPS AND DZ THROUGH THE WEEKEND.              
 CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS                 
 INTO THE REGION.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...SURFACE WINDS AT BUOY020 HAVE TAKEN A JUMP IN THE LAST               
 HOUR REACHING TO NEAR 14 KTS WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORMATION OF           
 THE MARINE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEX. A BEST               
 GUESS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW UTILIZING SURFACE                    
 OBS...BUOY DATA AND THE LATEST RUC MSL FIELDS SEEMS TO BE ABOUT                
 HALFWAY BETWEEN BUOY019 AND BUOY002. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW           
 WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN THE PGF OFFSHORE TO PUSH WINDS TO NEAR SCA                 
 LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL ISSUE AN SCA FOR THE            
 OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS SURFACE           
 LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOWER TX COASTLINE...THE PGF WILL              
 RELAX SOME TOMORROW ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS TO WEAKEN INTO                 
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PUSH OF                  
 STRONGER NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY WITH STRONG            
 NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING INTO SAT AND SUN. THE PGF WILL WEAKEN               
 ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON INTO TUES AS THE CENTER OF THE               
 STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. LIFTS OUT TO THE EAST AND            
 SURFACE TROFFING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX DIMINISHES.  GWW GUIDANCE              
 KEEPS 2 TO 3 METER SWELLS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE AREAS LATE SAT             
 AND SUN AND IN THE 1 TO 2 METER RANGE FOR MON AND TUES.  THIS LOOKS            
 REASONABLE AND IS PRETTY WELL REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT CWF WORDING.            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PRETTY EXTENSIVE AND THICK            
 LOW LEVEL SC IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ACCORDINGLY...LOW CEILINGS              
 WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FWC/MAV AND MET VSBY                   
 GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM LATER TONIGHT WITH           
 THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING AND THE FAIRLY                 
 NARROW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.             
 IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE              
 LOWER RGV AIRPORTS.  INCREASED LOW LEVEL MIXING TOMORROW WILL                  
 GRADUALLY IMPROVE CEILINGS AND VSBYS ONCE AGAIN.  HOWEVER...THE                
 CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW ONCE AGAIN ON WED.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  55  67  59  71  57 /  20  20  20  20  10                  
 BROWNSVILLE          54  67  58  75  55 /  20  20  20  20  10                  
 HARLINGEN            52  67  57  76  52 /  20  20  20  20  10                  
 MCALLEN              53  64  56  75  53 /  20  20  20  20  10                  
 RIO GRANDE CITY      53  61  53  76  52 /  20  20  20  10  10                  
 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   55  67  59  71  57 /  20  20  20  20  10                  
 &&                                                                             
 .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SCA GMZ 150-155-170-175 AFTER 6 PM CST.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                    
 HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                    
 55/60/VEGA                                                                     
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 935 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF              
 NORTH TEXAS.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY                
 SUNRISE TUESDAY.  WE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POSITION AND            
 SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT BASED ON TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.               
 THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL            
 FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WE             
 WILL LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO 20 PERCENT.                                
 THE LATEST NAM MODEL SOLUTION IS KEEPING NORTH TEXAS DRY THROUGH               
 SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND DOES NOT INCREASE THE LIFT OVER NORTH TEXAS              
 UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THAT MOST             
 IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY WOULD FALL AS RAIN. FOR NOW WE              
 WILL WAIT FOR SOME AGREEMENT FROM THE OTHER MODELS BEFORE                      
 ADJUSTING/REMOVING THE MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION                
 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                 
 79                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION ...                                                                  
 MODELS GIVING MIXED SIGNALS ON MOISTURE IN THE METRO DFW TRACON                
 AREA. STRATUS DECK OVR SOUTH CENTRAL TX IS STILL MOVG TOWARD NE                
 TEXAS. MAV AND RUC IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH CEILINGS AROUND              
 040-050 THRU 06Z. CDFNT MOVG ACRS SW OK MOVING AROUND 10 KTS. TIMING           
 LOOKS GOOD ARND 06/07Z. LAMP IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE IN TIMING OF                
 FRONTAL PASSAGE SO HAVE SLOWED TIMING TO THE 06-07Z TIMEFRAME.                 
 50                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 ...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY            
 THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                            
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WE DO NOT                 
 ANTICIPATE A MAJOR WINTER EVENT. JUST A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WITH               
 LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION.                                                 
 UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND BY TUESDAY                
 NIGHT...WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE THEN MERGE WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE             
 COMING OUT OF CANADA AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                  
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MORE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE INTO              
 THE MEAN TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THIS WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING THE               
 LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NOAM AND AIDING THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR                
 SOUTHWARD.  WE CONTINUE TO FEEL THAN MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD                 
 HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC SURGES...THUS MOS TEMPS SEEM TOO                          
 WARM...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.                        
 THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS A              
 SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE           
 FIRST COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR SETTLES OVER NORTH               
 TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS AN IMPULSE FROM THE WEST NEARS AND INCREASES                
 PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL             
 BE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT MIGRATES NORTH WITH TIME              
 DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS WET BULBING EFFECTS SHOULD PRODUCE            
 SOME SLEET OVER THE WEST AND NORTH COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY            
 NIGHT. ALSO...LIQUID RAIN COULD FALL INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR IN THE              
 EARLY MORNING HOURS...THUS HAVE ADDED SOME FREEZING RAIN. THE                  
 PRECIPITATION PROCESS WILL DIMINISH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST            
 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                           
 ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. THIS ONE WILL TURN NORTH             
 TEXAS QUITE COLD AS PARTIAL THICKNESSES FALL INTO THE 1270-1290                
 RANGE...BUT RIGHT NOW DO NOT SEE ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND               
 THIS FRONT.                                                                    
 FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST... WE/VE HEDGED TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL            
 WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THIS             
 ONE MAY BE EVEN COLDER THAN FRIDAY...SO HAVE UNDERCUT MIN/MAX TEMPS            
 THROUGH MONDAY AS ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE LOWER THAN THE GFS             
 VALUES OF FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                        
 THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME           
 PERIOD DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CLOSE LOW OFF THE                     
 CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND AND THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT FORMS             
 OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  52  33  47  32  41 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 WACO, TX              52  34  50  32  43 /   0  20  10  10  20                 
 PARIS, TX             49  31  43  25  39 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 DENTON, TX            52  31  47  27  41 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          51  32  45  26  38 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 DALLAS, TX            52  34  48  32  42 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 TERRELL, TX           51  33  47  30  39 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 CORSICANA, TX         52  35  48  31  41 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 TEMPLE, TX            53  36  48  34  44 /   0  20  20  20  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 42/75                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 528 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION ...                                                                  
 MODELS GIVING MIXED SIGNALS ON MOISTURE IN THE METRO DFW TRACON                
 AREA. STRATUS DECK OVR SOUTH CENTRAL TX IS STILL MOVG TOWARD NE                
 TEXAS. MAV AND RUC IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH CEILINGS AROUND              
 040-050 THRU 06Z. CDFNT MOVG ACRS SW OK MOVING AROUND 10 KTS. TIMING           
 LOOKS GOOD ARND 06/07Z. LAMP IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE IN TIMING OF                
 FRONTAL PASSAGE SO HAVE SLOWED TIMING TO THE 06-07Z TIMEFRAME.                 
 50                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 ...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY            
 THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                            
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WE DO NOT                 
 ANTICIPATE A MAJOR WINTER EVENT. JUST A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WITH               
 LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION.                                                 
 UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND BY TUESDAY                
 NIGHT...WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE THEN MERGE WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE             
 COMING OUT OF CANADA AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                  
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MORE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE INTO              
 THE MEAN TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THIS WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING THE               
 LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NOAM AND AIDING THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR                
 SOUTHWARD.  WE CONTINUE TO FEEL THAN MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD                 
 HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC SURGES...THUS MOS TEMPS SEEM TOO                          
 WARM...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.                        
 THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS A              
 SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE           
 FIRST COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR SETTLES OVER NORTH               
 TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS AN IMPULSE FROM THE WEST NEARS AND INCREASES                
 PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL             
 BE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT MIGRATES NORTH WITH TIME              
 DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS WET BULBING EFFECTS SHOULD PRODUCE            
 SOME SLEET OVER THE WEST AND NORTH COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY            
 NIGHT. ALSO...LIQUID RAIN COULD FALL INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR IN THE              
 EARLY MORNING HOURS...THUS HAVE ADDED SOME FREEZING RAIN. THE                  
 PRECIPITATION PROCESS WILL DIMINISH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST            
 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                           
 ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. THIS ONE WILL TURN NORTH             
 TEXAS QUITE COLD AS PARTIAL THICKNESSES FALL INTO THE 1270-1290                
 RANGE...BUT RIGHT NOW DO NOT SEE ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND               
 THIS FRONT.                                                                    
 FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST... WE/VE HEDGED TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL            
 WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THIS             
 ONE MAY BE EVEN COLDER THAN FRIDAY...SO HAVE UNDERCUT MIN/MAX TEMPS            
 THROUGH MONDAY AS ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE LOWER THAN THE GFS             
 VALUES OF FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                        
 THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME           
 PERIOD DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CLOSE LOW OFF THE                     
 CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND AND THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT FORMS             
 OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  52  33  47  32  41 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 WACO, TX              52  34  50  32  43 /   0  20  10  10  20                 
 PARIS, TX             49  31  43  25  39 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 DENTON, TX            52  31  47  27  41 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          51  32  45  26  38 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 DALLAS, TX            52  34  48  32  42 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 TERRELL, TX           51  33  47  30  39 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 CORSICANA, TX         52  35  48  31  41 /   0  10  10  10  30                 
 TEMPLE, TX            53  36  48  34  44 /   0  20  20  20  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 42/75                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                          
 824 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LATEST THINKING HERE IS TO LET ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED AT 9 PM.               
 ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT IS WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AREA WHERE                      
 MOD/HEAVY SNOW STILL FALLING /KLNR AT 1/4SM IN +SN RIGHT NOW/ AND              
 WINDS AT KPDC JUST GUSTED TO 27KTS...SO NO DOUBT THIS AREA STILL               
 RECEIVING IMPACTIVE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL. MAY NEED LOCAL EXTENSION               
 TO 11 PM IN FAR SRN CWA TO GET PAST THE BURST OF WINDS.                        
 SFC LOW PULLING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH SRN WISC. VERY COMPACT LITTLE             
 WAVE EMBEDDED DEEPER IN THE LARGE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE                  
 UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL SCALE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET NOW ACROSS WRN                  
 CWA...WITH STRONGEST PUSH OF WIND /30KT/ ON THE LEADING EDGE WHICH             
 IS CROSSING MS RIVER SOUTH OF LA CROSSE AT THIS MOMENT. WINDS AND              
 VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SERN MN/WRN PORTIONS OF NERN IA              
 SINCE ABOUT 7 PM WHEN I MADE THE LAST ROUND OF CALLS TO LAW                    
 ENFORCEMENT. THINK TRENDS OF IMPROVEMENT IN THESE AREAS WILL                   
 CONTINUE...SO FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT DROPPING ADVRY WEST OF               
 ALLAMAKEE/CLAYTON COUNTIES AT 9PM. LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED               
 TO THE EAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE.                                                
 THE MESOSCALE BAND OF SNOW ON NRN/NERN FRINGE OF THE TIGHT                     
 CIRCULATION WAS INTENSE...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A 2-2.5+ INCH BAND           
 ACROSS SRN HOUSTON/VERNON/CRAWFORD/FILLMORE/RICHLAND COUNTIES.                 
 WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 3 INCH REPORT COME OUT OF THIS                 
 BAND YET. PLENTY OF COLD AIR/WIND CHILLS TO FILTER INTO CWA                    
 OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC INDICATING BLOB OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO ROTATE             
 SOUTHWEST OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW/MID                 
 LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. CURRENT GRIDS                  
 HANDLE THIS. WILL MAKE FINAL CALL ON ADVRY AND HAVE FRESH ZONES                
 OUT BY 9 PM.                                                                   
 THANKS TO MEDIA PARTNERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SURROUNDING NWS               
 WFO/S THIS EVENING FOR REPORTS AND COLLABORATION.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WI...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR            
      WIZ054-WIZ061.                                                            
 MN...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR            
      MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ094-MNZ095.                                              
 IA...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR            
      IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BINAU                                                                          
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                 
 230 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FOCUS ON THREAT OF SNOW TONIGHT AND AGAIN             
 LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  COMPACT SHORT WAVE VICINITY             
 OF ALBERT LEA MN /KAEL/ TRACKING SOUTHEAST.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
 AIDING FORCING PRODUCING NUMEROUS AREAS OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN              
 ONE MILW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.  ECHOES EXPANDING RAPIDLY                 
 ACROSS JUST WEST OF STATE LINE WITH DECORAH NOW DOWN TO 3/4 MILE.              
 LATEST WS-ETA AND RUC SHOWS STRONG FORCING WITH 700MB OMEGA                    
 EXCEEDING 10 MICROBARS PASSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PART OF COUNTY                 
 WARNING AREA THROUGH 03Z.  UPSTREAM SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES                  
 REPORTED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THIS FEATURE.  BELIEVE HEAVIEST            
 AMOUNTS WILL AFFECT GREEN...LAFAYETTE...IOWA...ROCK AND PERHAPS                
 SOUTHERN WALWORTH...DANE COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONG              
 FORCING REMAINS OVER SOUTH SO WILL DROP OFF POPS TO CHC OR AREAS IN            
 NORTH.  REMNANTS OF DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH PASSES THROUGH               
 LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SO WL TRAIL DOWN POPS TO CHC AFT            
 MID AND FLURRIES TUE.   CONCERN OVER BURST OF SNOW DURING RUSH HOUR            
 IN THE SOUTHWEST.  WL STRESS IN NOWS AND HWO...BUT PONDERING QUICK             
 HITTING SNOW ADVY IN MY SOUTHWEST.                                             
 BOTH GFS AND NAM SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT WEAK           
 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE STILL SPREAD INTO                  
 SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WL CONTINUE SMALL POPS FOR           
 NOW BUT IF TREND CONTINUES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TONE DOWN TO             
 FLURRIES OR FOCUS MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE             
 SHOWING PROBABILITIES FOR MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO              
 OVER 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WL HOLD ON TO 30 TO 40           
 PERCENT RANGE                                                                  
 A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 4-7 PERIOD AS GFS SHOWING CONSISTENCY            
 OVER LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN           
 AS WELL AS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THE                 
 PERIOD. FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD OF MUCH ANTICIPATED SURGE OF                 
 ARCTIC AIR AS POLAR VORTEX AND LONG WAVE TROF DEEPENS ACROSS CANADA            
 INTO EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER GFS HAS BEEN SLOWING UP BITTER COLD 85H            
 TEMPERATURES OF LOWER THAN -25C UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 85H                 
 TEMPERATURE NORMALIZED ANOMOLY OF 2 TO 3 UNITS VALID 00Z/05 SO                 
 TEMPERATURES THIS COLD BECOMING A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR EARLY               
 FEBRUARY. /RECORD LOWEST WI AND MN TEMP SET IN EARLY FEBRUARY 11               
 YEARS AGO ON GROUNDHOG DAY/. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 500H 5 DAY MEANS AS            
 COLDEST PERIOD WITH LOWEST HEIGHT ANOMOLY OF 200 TO 300 METERS OVER            
 WESTERN GREAT LAKES CENTERED ON 00Z/05 WITH SOME SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF           
 NEGATIVE ANOMOLY BY THE END OF FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.                         
 MOISTURE STILL LACKING AS SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE            
 THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.  MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE PERCENT OF            
 MEASUREABLE PROGNOSIS REMAINS VERY LOW AS DOES TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE           
 HOWEVER CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE...WL UP POPS SLIGHTLY TO            
 CHC CATEGORY IN WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING.              
 &&                                                                             
 .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MBK                                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                        
 500 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 07Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN               
 ACROSS THE CONUS. SEVERAL VERY DISTINCT SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN                 
 RIDING THE NORTHERN STREAM...ONE DROPPING OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL                 
 CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ABOUT TO EXIT THE                  
 CAROLINA COAST. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDING IS SEEN ACROSS THE LOWER               
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE               
 SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.                                                       
 AT THE SURFACE WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE           
 TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HIGH             
 IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF              
 COOL AND DRY AIR FOR TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK            
 EDGE OF THE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS            
 THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING           
 WITH THE EXCEPTION THE THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHICH WILL TAKE A BIT            
 LONGER TO CLEAR OUT. NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CAN ALSO BE           
 SEEN IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN BE               
 REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM THAT SHOULD BE OUR NEXT                 
 WEATHER MAKER STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.           
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TODAY-FRIDAY) AS MENTIONED ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTH OF THE           
 FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL                  
 CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AS WELL WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR           
 MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE             
 IN THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT                
 MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. WOULD           
 EXPECT TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEGIN TO                
 OVERSPREAD OUR SKIES BY LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE                  
 EVENING HOURS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...HIGH                  
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE ONLY REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE            
 50 MOST LOCATIONS.                                                             
 RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE           
 WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM IN THE WESTERN GULF            
 BEGINS TO APPROACH. NOT THINKING THAT THE RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ALL             
 THAT HEAVY...BUT COVERAGE COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD AFTER                  
 MIDNIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.                                       
 LOW BEINGS TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS            
 IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW POSITION SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST              
 NORTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE WARMFRONT SHOULD              
 SLOWLY PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF               
 SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HELP TO SLOW THE FRONTS                 
 PROGRESS. RAINFALL ON THURSDAY MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT                     
 TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY. MOST SO ACROSS THE NORTH. RIGHT             
 NOW WILL BE GOING WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER            
 60 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ARE LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL           
 THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH                
 THROUGH. FOR THAT REASON THE HIGH NEAR 60 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AL/GA            
 COUNTIES WILL LIKELY WAIT TO VERY LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO AS THE DAY             
 PROGRESSES...JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TO               
 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.              
 SHEAR PROFILES LOOK IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG                  
 THUNDERSTORMS AND SPC HAS OUTLOOKED PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR A                 
 SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.                                                 
 THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT                  
 DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED           
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THIS               
 FRONT HAS PASSES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THE              
 RAINFALL MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES. EXACT AMOUNTS ARE                  
 UNCERTAIN BUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE             
 1"+ RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE. WILL                
 OUTLOOK AS WELL IN THE HWO. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE               
 SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY             
 MORNING. GUIDANCE SPLITS AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS CLEARING US              
 OUT AND THE NAM HOLDING THE FRONT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR               
 SOUTHERN ZONES. NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN ITS SOLUTION WITH THE GFS                 
 HAVING STRONG BACKING FROM THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON DROPPED POPS             
 BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.                        
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY) AREA IS IN THE SQUEEZE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY           
 NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND THE FRONT TO SOUTH                
 SOUTH TRYING TO COME BACK NORTH. GFS HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT ON               
 BRINGING QPF BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA BY LATE                  
 SATURDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAN THE FORECAST IN A SIMILAR             
 FASHION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR            
 SOUTHEAST. EITHER WAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH LOOKS TO WIN THE            
 BATTLE BY SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA            
 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. JUST FOR MENTIONING...THE AIRMASS COMING INTO              
 THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS RATHER COLD. IF...IF THERE            
 WAS ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA OR            
 SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THICKNESS VALUES BOTH (1000-850/850-700) WOULD             
 INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN. AT THIS            
 TIME THE THINKING IS THAT THE PRECIP WILL EXIT TO RAPIDLY...BUT                
 THERE IS A CHANCE. EITHER WAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD BE VERY               
 LIGHT AND ANY FROZEN PRECIP WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.                          
 UPPER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A VERY              
 DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND SURFACE              
 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS DRY BUT COOL FOR             
 THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 DESPITE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL                          
 SPRINKLES SO FAR TONIGHT...VFR WEATHER IS BEING REPORTED AT                    
 ALL OF OUR LOCAL STATIONS. THE CEILINGS (AROUND 8K FT) WILL                    
 GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN NOW                    
 AND DAY BREAK...AS WILL THE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. IN FACT...ANY                  
 SHOWERS THAT OCCUR TONIGHT WILL BE OF LITTLE IMPACT TO                         
 OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT                      
 AND WEDNESDAY...AND QUICKLY VEER FROM NORTHWEST EARLY                          
 TODAY...TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT                       
 WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND APPROACH LATER                     
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO                         
 FORECAST ANY RAIN THROUGH 06 UTC.                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS                         
 TODAY BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS LOW                     
 PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT                 
 BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AND               
 SEAS TO CAUTION LEVELS IN THE OFFSHORE LEGS TODAY AND FOR ALL LEGS             
 TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE COASTAL              
 WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED              
 TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH                     
 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE             
 THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS                
 THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE                  
 BRIEFLY BUILDING IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE             
 AGAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BETWEEN THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND              
 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT AN EXTENDED                 
 PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BOTH                
 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .FIRE WEATHER...                                                               
 CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES FOR THIS               
 AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY TOO LOW IN THE GUIDANCE           
 AND ADJUSTED CURRENT GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. RH VALUES ARE NO LONGER            
 ANTICIPTATED TO REACH CRITICAL DURATIONS. RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN           
 EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND              
 REGIONS. INCREASING MOISTUREA AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY WILL END           
 ANY FIRE WX THREAT.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 TALLAHASSEE  54  43  67  56  66 /  10  60  90  90  30                          
 PANAMA CITY  54  49  67  56  65 /  10  70  90  90  20                          
 DOTHAN       51  43  62  49  63 /  10  70  90  80  20                          
 ALBANY       51  41  62  49  64 /   0  50  90  90  20                          
 VALDOSTA     54  42  68  57  66 /  10  40  80  90  30                          
 CROSS CITY   57  46  69  61  69 /  10  40  70  80  50                          
 &&                                                                             
 .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AL...NONE.                                                                     
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11AM CST/ TODAY TO 5 PM EST               
 /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE             
 ...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE          
 ...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.               
 GMZ750...NONE.                                                                 
 GMZ755...NONE.                                                                 
 GMZ770...NONE.                                                                 
 GMZ775...NONE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                            
 REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                      
 107 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                         
 IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CONSIDERABLE BINOVC SC DECK...WITH                 
 SOME SITES SCOURING OUT TO SKC-SCT. UPSLOPE/LAKE SNOW SHOWERS                  
 WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CONDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TAFS /KBFD- KJST/                  
 WITH DOWNSLOPING WRLY COMPNT TO THE LLVL WND FIELD AIDING IN VFR               
 CONDS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OF A BRIEF REDUCTION              
 TO MVFR AT KUNV/KIPT/KAOO THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH OCNL               
 -SHSN. WEST TO WNW SFC WNDS 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT                
 KJST AND KMDT.                                                                 
 HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE MID MS VLY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN                
 MID ATLANTIC STATES...EFFECTIVELY LOWERING INVERSION HGTS AND                  
 SHUTTING DOWN THE LAKE SNOWS - ALLOWING KBFD/KJST TO IMPROVE BY                
 LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFT.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1223 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY FOR THE NRN MTS/POCONOS.              
 ONLY A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT THERE...AS LOW IS WELL TO THE                 
 EAST AND INVERSION LOWERING SFC PRESSURES RISING. WILL TWEAK JUST              
 THE FIRST PD WORDING FOR NOW. ALSO RE-ISSUED THE WSW FOR                       
 NOW...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING AS THE UPSLOPE AND CROSS-LAKE                 
 FETCH CONTINUES. SO WILL JUST CONTINUE THEM FOR NOW.                           
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1012 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                          
 WILL SEND OUT A QUICK...LATE EVENING ZONE UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP                 
 THE WORDING FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC FRONT HAS               
 PUSHED EAST OF THE SUSI VALLEY...TAKING THE HEAVY SQUALLS WITH IT.             
 WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SNOWS ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS WILL               
 BRING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW                  
 HOURS WITHIN THE SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST.          
 PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND                 
 LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE A FEW                
 MORE INCHES OVERNIGHT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE LAKE EFFECT/SNOW                  
 ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS.                                                    
 ELSEWHERE...EXPECT FLURRIES AND A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER                    
 OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY 700-500 HPA THERMAL TROUGH MOVES SE FROM              
 THE GLAKES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE                 
 CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. OVC LAYER WILL BREAK UP AFTER                 
 MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE                
 UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ADVECT EAST VIA A DOWNSLOPE LLVL FLOW.                     
 TRIMMED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BY 2-4 DEG F IN MANY                    
 LOCATIONS.                                                                     
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 728 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                
 AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 50 CROSSING THE SUSQ                
 VALLEY...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG...ALBEIT COMPACT UPPER SHORT               
 WAVE MOVE EAST OVER THE NCENT MTNS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SNOW                    
 SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS EARLY TONIGHT.                          
 ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT                  
 WHERE A MESO-B MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND CORRESPONDING                      
 EAST/WEST BELT OF ENHANCED 850-700 HPA OMEGA WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL              
 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.                                                            
 SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED FLURRIES                   
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING.            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 MESO ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW JUST WEST OF BFD AT 18Z...WITH THE COLD                
 FRONT MOVING THRU SWRN PA. RUC SHOWS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE           
 AIR...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM AND T-TOTALS                
 TOPPING 50...HELPING TRIGGER THE CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS              
 MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE            
 AFTER ABOUT 21Z ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WITH THE FRONT              
 EXPECTED TO CLEAR MY EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z.                                     
 AFTER THE FROPA...WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW               
 REGIME WITH LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOWS IN THE                 
 WEST...AND ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF TO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND            
 FLURRIES THE FURTHER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND LAURELS ONE GETS.               
 ONLY CONCERN IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER-AIR PORTION OF             
 THE OCCLUDED FRONT HANGS TOUGH FOR A TIME INTO NW PA...ENHANCING THE           
 CONVERGENCE THERE INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOWS UP AS A WELL DEFINED            
 THERMAL RIDGE UP THRU ABOUT 850MB IN ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.             
 THEY SHIFT THIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.                                    
 WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW WILL BE OVER             
 WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE WE SHUD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN                   
 FLURRIES.                                                                      
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
 UPPER TROFFING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE LONG           
 TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
 EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL                    
 TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                               
 MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY...BUT TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN STAND            
 OUT. A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO             
 AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK                  
 COMPLEX...WITH VARYING RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A SOUTHERN STREAM           
 TROF IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.                
 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROF FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE       
 REGION LATER FRIDAY. MUCH YET DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL              
 LOW AND ANY PHASING THAT MAY TAKE PLACE BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS. AT            
 THIS TIME...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE ACROSS ALL OF            
 THE CWA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                
 REGION...EVEN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHERE SNOWFALL SO FAR             
 THIS SEASON IS LESS THAN AN INCH TOTAL.                                        
 A PRONOUNCED ARCTIC TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST              
 AREA ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS              
 WINTER.                                                                        
 AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                          
 THE AFTERNOON`S WIDESPREAD IFR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW                
 SHOWERS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE                
 UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW                  
 DEVELOPS. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THOUGH...JST/BFD WILL NOT SHARE IN              
 THE IMPROVEMENT AS UPSLOPE AND PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE CONSPIRE TO              
 KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MAINLY DOWN BELOW 3000/3 WITH FREQUENT SNOW                
 SHOWERS BRINGING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. WILL PROB SEE AOO/UNV/IPT              
 IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MOSTLY UNLIMITED VIS WITH ONLY OCNL               
 SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS AFTER 00Z...WITH VFR                 
 DEVELOPING SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. STILL A                
 QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FAR SERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MUCH                    
 INCLEMENT WX AT ALL AS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOISTURE STARVED AND              
 DOWN-SLOPING FLOW WILL ONLY HELP IN MAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER             
 ACTIVITY DRY UP BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THINK           
 THERE IS A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS THRU THE           
 EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT CIG/VIS SHUD NOT POSE MUCH OF A CHALLENGE             
 THERE.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                     
 PAZ004-005-010.                                                                
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024-033.                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...STEINBUGL                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                      
 1223 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY FOR THE NRN MTS/POCONOS.              
 ONLY A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT THERE...AS LOW IS WELL TO THE                 
 EAST AND INVERSION LOWERING SFC PRESSURES RISING. WILL TWEAK JUST              
 THE FIRST PD WORDING FOR NOW. ALSO RE-ISSUED THE WSW FOR                       
 NOW...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING AS THE UPSLOPE AND CROSS-LAKE                 
 FETCH CONTINUES. SO WILL JUST CONTINUE THEM FOR NOW.                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1012 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                          
 WILL SEND OUT A QUICK...LATE EVENING ZONE UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP                 
 THE WORDING FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC FRONT HAS               
 PUSHED EAST OF THE SUSI VALLEY...TAKING THE HEAVY SQUALLS WITH IT.             
 WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SNOWS ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS WILL               
 BRING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW                  
 HOURS WITHIN THE SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST.          
 PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND                 
 LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE A FEW                
 MORE INCHES OVERNIGHT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE LAKE EFFECT/SNOW                  
 ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS.                                                    
 ELSEWHERE...EXPECT FLURRIES AND A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER                    
 OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY 700-500 HPA THERMAL TROUGH MOVES SE FROM              
 THE GLAKES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE                 
 CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. OVC LAYER WILL BREAK UP AFTER                 
 MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE                
 UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ADVECT EAST VIA A DOWNSLOPE LLVL FLOW.                     
 TRIMMED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BY 2-4 DEG F IN MANY                    
 LOCATIONS.                                                                     
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 728 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                
 AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 50 CROSSING THE SUSQ                
 VALLEY...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG...ALBEIT COMPACT UPPER SHORT               
 WAVE MOVE EAST OVER THE NCENT MTNS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SNOW                    
 SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS EARLY TONIGHT.                          
 ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT                  
 WHERE A MESO-B MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND CORRESPONDING                      
 EAST/WEST BELT OF ENHANCED 850-700 HPA OMEGA WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL              
 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.                                                            
 SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED FLURRIES                   
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING.            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 MESO ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW JUST WEST OF BFD AT 18Z...WITH THE COLD                
 FRONT MOVING THRU SWRN PA. RUC SHOWS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE           
 AIR...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM AND T-TOTALS                
 TOPPING 50...HELPING TRIGGER THE CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS              
 MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE            
 AFTER ABOUT 21Z ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WITH THE FRONT              
 EXPECTED TO CLEAR MY EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z.                                     
 AFTER THE FROPA...WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW               
 REGIME WITH LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOWS IN THE                 
 WEST...AND ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF TO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND            
 FLURRIES THE FURTHER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND LAURELS ONE GETS.               
 ONLY CONCERN IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER-AIR PORTION OF             
 THE OCCLUDED FRONT HANGS TOUGH FOR A TIME INTO NW PA...ENHANCING THE           
 CONVERGENCE THERE INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOWS UP AS A WELL DEFINED            
 THERMAL RIDGE UP THRU ABOUT 850MB IN ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.             
 THEY SHIFT THIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.                                    
 WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW WILL BE OVER             
 WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE WE SHUD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN                   
 FLURRIES.                                                                      
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
 UPPER TROFFING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE LONG           
 TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
 EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL                    
 TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                               
 MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY...BUT TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN STAND            
 OUT. A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO             
 AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK                  
 COMPLEX...WITH VARYING RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A SOUTHERN STREAM           
 TROF IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.                
 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROF FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE       
 REGION LATER FRIDAY. MUCH YET DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL              
 LOW AND ANY PHASING THAT MAY TAKE PLACE BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS. AT            
 THIS TIME...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE ACROSS ALL OF            
 THE CWA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                
 REGION...EVEN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHERE SNOWFALL SO FAR             
 THIS SEASON IS LESS THAN AN INCH TOTAL.                                        
 A PRONOUNCED ARCTIC TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST              
 AREA ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS              
 WINTER.                                                                        
 AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                          
 THE AFTERNOON`S WIDESPREAD IFR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW                
 SHOWERS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE                
 UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW                  
 DEVELOPS. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THOUGH...JST/BFD WILL NOT SHARE IN              
 THE IMPROVEMENT AS UPSLOPE AND PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE CONSPIRE TO              
 KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MAINLY DOWN BELOW 3000/3 WITH FREQUENT SNOW                
 SHOWERS BRINGING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. WILL PROB SEE AOO/UNV/IPT              
 IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MOSTLY UNLIMITED VIS WITH ONLY OCNL               
 SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS AFTER 00Z...WITH VFR                 
 DEVELOPING SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. STILL A                
 QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FAR SERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MUCH                    
 INCLEMENT WX AT ALL AS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOISTURE STARVED AND              
 DOWN-SLOPING FLOW WILL ONLY HELP IN MAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER             
 ACTIVITY DRY UP BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THINK           
 THERE IS A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS THRU THE           
 EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT CIG/VIS SHUD NOT POSE MUCH OF A CHALLENGE             
 THERE.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                     
 PAZ004-005-010.                                                                
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024-033.                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...DANGELO                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 1152 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG                  
 COUNTRY HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN WE WERE ANTICIPATING. THE             
 STRATUS...CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...WILL               
 LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE BIG COUNTRY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.              
 THUS...JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE                    
 DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. ALSO...ADJUSTED SKY                   
 CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. AS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR              
 THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...LATEST RUC SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS                   
 COLUMN OVER THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND REMAIN               
 AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK UNTIL AROUND 12Z. THEN...A                  
 WARMER LAYER...CENTERED AROUND 800 MB...EDGES A COUPLE DEGREES C               
 ABOVE FREEZING. SO...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SNOW FOR               
 THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. HOWEVER...AS                  
 BEFORE...WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...LIQUID               
 PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS BEST.                                                
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                       
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OF BKN010-020 ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS                
 WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/11Z...WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE                 
 WIDESPREAD AFTER 31/14Z. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST                     
 CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/09Z...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW                
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY UNTIL 31/18Z. ALSO...SURFACE WINDS WILL                 
 BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND                            
 WEDNESDAY.  21                                                                 
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                         
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR                   
 SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...WITH THE BEST RADAR                  
 RETURN CURRENTLY OVER HASKELL COUNTY AND THROCKMORTON COUNTY.                  
 SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN MAINLY NORTHEAST.               
 HOWEVER...LATEST RUC DATA INDICATE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST                 
 OVERNIGHT. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.                             
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                         
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE REDEVELOPING FROM THE WEST WITH UPSLOPE                
 FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON (AT LEAST SOUTH OF                       
 INTERSTATE 20). WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS                 
 OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME LIFT INDICATED AHEAD OF THE               
 SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.                                            
 MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
 SHEARS OUT AND MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...AND RIDING OVER THE COLD              
 FRONT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD MORNING. GFS                    
 FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THIS TO BE SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE IN             
 THE BIG COUNTRY...IF IT OCCURS. DO NOT ANTICIPATED ACCUMULATIONS.              
 WENT A LITTLE LOWER ON TEMPERATURES (FROM MAV GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE             
 BIG COUNTRY WHERE IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR CLOUD COVER TO               
 COME IN TONIGHT.                                                               
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 BEST SHORTWAVE/LIFT COMES IN WEDNESDAY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES                   
 PROFILES INDICATE THIS TO BE MAINLY RAIN...THROUGH ITS POSSIBLE                
 SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.                  
 RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN              
 ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THIS WEEKEND.                
 MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS                             
 WEEKEND...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO.                              
 ECMWF DIFFER IN HANDLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HAS               
 COLD FRONT MONDAY...WHICH BUILDS IN VERY STRONGLY THROUGH                      
 TUESDAY. THE GFS PUSHES MOST OF THE COLD AIR TO THE EAST ON                    
 MONDAY...WITH ONLY A WEAKER COLD FRONT. IT THEN BRINGS WEST CENTRAL            
 TEXAS IN SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY...BEFORE A SECOND                    
 STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE COLDER              
 ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW...AS A LOT OF TIMES FRONT GETS CHANNELS                 
 AGAINST THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  29  48  37  48 /  20  30  50  20                                      
 SAN ANGELO  34  51  40  55 /  20  20  50  20                                   
 JUNCTION  37  49  44  60 /  20  20  50  20                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 23/23                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OF BKN010-020 ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS                
 WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/11Z...WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE                 
 WIDESPREAD AFTER 31/14Z. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST                     
 CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/09Z...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW                
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY UNTIL 31/18Z. ALSO...SURFACE WINDS WILL                 
 BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND                            
 WEDNESDAY.  21                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR                   
 SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...WITH THE BEST RADAR                  
 RETURN CURRENTLY OVER HASKELL COUNTY AND THROCKMORTON COUNTY.                  
 SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN MAINLY NORTHEAST.               
 HOWEVER...LATEST RUC DATA INDICATE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST                 
 OVERNIGHT. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.                             
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                         
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE REDEVELOPING FROM THE WEST WITH UPSLOPE                
 FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON (AT LEAST SOUTH OF                       
 INTERSTATE 20). WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS                 
 OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME LIFT INDICATED AHEAD OF THE               
 SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.                                            
 MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
 SHEARS OUT AND MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...AND RIDING OVER THE COLD              
 FRONT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD MORNING. GFS                    
 FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THIS TO BE SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE IN             
 THE BIG COUNTRY...IF IT OCCURS. DO NOT ANTICIPATED ACCUMULATIONS.              
 WENT A LITTLE LOWER ON TEMPERATURES (FROM MAV GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE             
 BIG COUNTRY WHERE IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR CLOUD COVER TO               
 COME IN TONIGHT.                                                               
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 BEST SHORTWAVE/LIFT COMES IN WEDNESDAY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES                   
 PROFILES INDICATE THIS TO BE MAINLY RAIN...THROUGH ITS POSSIBLE                
 SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.                  
 RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN              
 ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THIS WEEKEND.                
 MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS                             
 WEEKEND...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO.                              
 ECMWF DIFFER IN HANDLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HAS               
 COLD FRONT MONDAY...WHICH BUILDS IN VERY STRONGLY THROUGH                      
 TUESDAY. THE GFS PUSHES MOST OF THE COLD AIR TO THE EAST ON                    
 MONDAY...WITH ONLY A WEAKER COLD FRONT. IT THEN BRINGS WEST CENTRAL            
 TEXAS IN SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY...BEFORE A SECOND                    
 STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE COLDER              
 ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW...AS A LOT OF TIMES FRONT GETS CHANNELS                 
 AGAINST THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  31  48  37  48 /  20  30  50  20                                      
 SAN ANGELO  34  51  40  55 /  20  20  50  20                                   
 JUNCTION  37  49  44  60 /  20  20  50  20                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                          
 954 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CURRENT...WRN ATLC LOW PRES HAS DRAGGED A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS           
 NRN/CTRL FL. DUE TO DVLPG LOW PRES OVER THE WRN GOMEX THE TROUGH HAS           
 SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AND IS ALREADY FALLING APART AS I TYPE. NORTH OF           
 THIS DISSIPATING FEATURE...EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS MOVED             
 INTO THE MID MS/OH/TN VLYS. MORNING RAOBS/RUC ANLYS FIELDS INDICATE            
 THE LARGE SWATH OF >90% H70-H50 RH WHICH MOVED OVER THE STATE LAST             
 NIGHT...PRODUCING NMRS SPRINKLES IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. FIRST              
 HR OR SO OF VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LAST NIGHT`S EXTENSIVE            
 MID LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY IS THINNING OUT QUITE A BIT ATTM.                       
 TODAY...EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN FOR SKIES TO WIND            
 UP AVGING "PSUNNY"...HOWEVER WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE            
 A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL VORT IN THE GOMEX BTWN BUOYS 42001/42003 TO SEE           
 IF IT MIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUDS THIS WAY BY            
 LATE AFTN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THIS WON`T BE THE CASE.                
 GIVEN THIS...WE SHOULD WIND REACHING FCSTR MAX TEMPS CWA-WIDE...AND            
 DON`T SEE A PRESSING NEED FOR A ZFP UPDATE.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...VFR WITH DCRSG COVRG OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW N-NNW WINDS OF 15-20KT.             
 NEAR SHORE. OVER THE LAST 2HR...SCRIPPS BUOY 41114 (OFFSHORE FPR)              
 HAS ACTUALLY NUDGED INTO THE 3-4FT RANGE...ABOVE THE CURRENT FCST.             
 ALL INDICATIONS FOR THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE LOCAL PGRAD           
 WILL SLACKEN THIS AFTN...ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF TO 10-15KT AS              
 THE FLOW VEERS FROM N TO NE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDS...              
 PLAN TO KEEP CAUTIONARY STMT FOR THE FLG-COF 20-60NM LEG GOING THRU            
 EARLY AFTN. WILL ALSO TWEAK SEAS OVER THE 0-20NM COF-JUP LEG UP TO             
 2-4FT TO ACCT FOR CURRENT CONDS.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FL...NONE.                                                                     
 AM...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 CRISTALDI                                                                      
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1107 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                    
 .MORNING UPDATE...                                                             
 DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS             
 A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS HOURLIES WERE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN                 
 WHAT THE GRIDS REFLECTED.                                                      
 SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO THE MID AND UPPER             
 20S...WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS SRN KY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.              
 SINCE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT...WIND CHILLS NOT A FACTOR TODAY DESPITE             
 IT BEING COLD.                                                                 
 CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MID TO              
 UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN DOWNSTREAM OF GULF COAST SYSTEM.               
 UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                            
 AL                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...                                                   
 TODAY...                                                                       
 SCT STRATOCU CURRENTLY FROM NEAR CVG TO SDF TO OWB FCST TO SLIDE ESE           
 THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COUPLE FLURRIES NOT OUT OF THE              
 QUESTION ASSOC WITH THESE CLOUDS. MOST OF THE CWA WILL START OFF               
 PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE DAWN...BUT QUICKLY GO SUNNY THIS MORNING. TEMPS           
 WILL BE QUITE COLD...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO UPPER                
 SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN           
 LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS...SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT                
 PROBLEM. THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE SPREAD IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH           
 TEMPS TODAY...BIGGEST AT LEX WHERE NAM-MOS SHOWS 27 WHILE GFS-MOS              
 PREDICTS A HIGH OF 35! NGM NUMBERS ARE CLOSER TO COOLER NAM-MOS. A             
 BLEND OF RAW GFS/NAM DATA YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR           
 NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS SEEMS                  
 REASONABLE.                                                                    
 CS                                                                             
 TONIGHT-FRIDAY...                                                              
 THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF WINTERY PRECIP ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR             
 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                                           
 UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH                   
 CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE            
 SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS PATTERN...ANY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL           
 BE QUITE SHEARED IN A CONFLUENT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO            
 VALLEY. ONE THING TO NOTE IS A SHARPENING JET STREAK THAT WILL                 
 DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. LIFT              
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS JET WILL MOVE ACROSS           
 THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SNOW BEGINNING EARLY             
 THURSDAY.                                                                      
 AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC           
 SEABOARD EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL               
 FLOW TO RESUME ABOVE COLDER AIR IN PLACE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.            
 MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH...WHERE PLENTY OF RAIN IS              
 EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED           
 WARM FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE            
 AVAILABLE AND WILL BE A RESULT OF UPPER AIR DYNAMICS.                          
 BOTH ETA AND GFS HINT AT POSSIBLY TWO SEPARATE EPISODES OF WINTERY             
 PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY                        
 THURSDAY...AND THE SECOND...LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST           
 SOUNDINGS SHOW BASICALLY ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL           
 SNOW WITH THIS FIRST EPISODE. MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT...BUT WITH                
 RAIN/SNOW RATIOS GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...              
 PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...LOOK LIKELY. INITIALLY...VERY DRY LOW                 
 LEVEL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY THURSDAY...THIS I THINK WILL HELP             
 KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW AT THE BEGINNING...BUT ALSO MAY DELAY THE                 
 ONSET...WHICH SHOULD BE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                             
 BY LATE THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST BY BOTH            
 THE NAM AND THE GFS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. A SECOND ROUND OF               
 LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY                
 LAYER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF KENTUCKY MAY ALLOW             
 SOME RAIN TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS WILL             
 BE LIGHT AS WELL...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ONE            
 INCH. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE                
 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY             
 AFTERNOON AS FLURRIES WILL BE ENDING.                                          
 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY                      
 MORNING...WITH HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON                 
 ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                                              
 JSD                                                                            
 LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...                                                
 DEEP POLAR VORTEX JUST SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP VERY COLD           
 AIR LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES.              
 COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS HIGH                   
 PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRIGID AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE           
 SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY TWO ARCTIC FRONTS ARE FORECAST           
 TO MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND THE SECOND ONE                
 EARLY MONDAY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE              
 COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE LATE DECEMBER 2004.                                 
 JSD                                                                            
 AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
 BAND OF STRATOCU HAS BEEN PERSISTENT...CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM               
 NEAR SDF TO LEX. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST RUC RH                   
 FIELDS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PROGRESS OFF TO THE ESE AFFECTING THE SDF            
 TAF SITE THROUGH 12-13Z...LEX THROUGH 14Z. CIGS ARE NOT TOO LOW...             
 AROUND 2.5KFT. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND OF CLOUDS              
 BUT VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. VFR/SKC FROM MID MORNING INTO THE              
 AFTN HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FCST TO MOVE INTO           
 THE REGION TOWARD 21Z...WITH CIGS DROPPING BELOW 10KFT AFTER 0Z.               
 BASED ON LATEST NAM BUFKIT DATA...WILL INTRODUCE -SN AFTER 6Z FROM             
 SW TO NE...BUT WILL KEEP CIGS AOA 2KFT THROUGH 12Z/THU.                        
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 605 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                        
 BAND OF STRATOCU HAS BEEN PERSISTENT...CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM               
 NEAR SDF TO LEX. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST RUC RH                   
 FIELDS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PROGRESS OFF TO THE ESE AFFECTING THE SDF            
 TAF SITE THROUGH 12-13Z...LEX THROUGH 14Z. CIGS ARE NOT TOO LOW...             
 AROUND 2.5KFT. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND OF CLOUDS              
 BUT VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. VFR/SKC FROM MID MORNING INTO THE              
 AFTN HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FCST TO MOVE INTO           
 THE REGION TOWARD 21Z...WITH CIGS DROPPING BELOW 10KFT AFTER 0Z.               
 BASED ON LATEST NAM BUFKIT DATA...WILL INTRODUCE -SN AFTER 6Z FROM             
 SW TO NE...BUT WILL KEEP CIGS AOA 2KFT THROUGH 12Z/THU.                        
 CS                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...                                                  
 TODAY...                                                                       
 SCT STRATOCU CURRENTLY FROM NEAR CVG TO SDF TO OWB FCST TO SLIDE ESE           
 THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COUPLE FLURRIES NOT OUT OF THE              
 QUESTION ASSOC WITH THESE CLOUDS. MOST OF THE CWA WILL START OFF               
 PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE DAWN...BUT QUICKLY GO SUNNY THIS MORNING. TEMPS           
 WILL BE QUITE COLD...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO UPPER                
 SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN           
 LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS...SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT                
 PROBLEM. THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE SPREAD IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH           
 TEMPS TODAY...BIGGEST AT LEX WHERE NAM-MOS SHOWS 27 WHILE GFS-MOS              
 PREDICTS A HIGH OF 35! NGM NUMBERS ARE CLOSER TO COOLER NAM-MOS. A             
 BLEND OF RAW GFS/NAM DATA YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR           
 NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS SEEMS                  
 REASONABLE.                                                                    
 CS                                                                             
 TONIGHT-FRIDAY...                                                              
 THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF WINTERY PRECIP ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR             
 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                                           
 UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH                   
 CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE            
 SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS PATTERN...ANY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL           
 BE QUITE SHEARED IN A CONFLUENT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO            
 VALLEY. ONE THING TO NOTE IS A SHARPENING JET STREAK THAT WILL                 
 DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. LIFT              
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS JET WILL MOVE ACROSS           
 THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SNOW BEGINNING EARLY             
 THURSDAY.                                                                      
 AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC           
 SEABOARD EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL               
 FLOW TO RESUME ABOVE COLDER AIR IN PLACE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.            
 MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH...WHERE PLENTY OF RAIN IS              
 EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED           
 WARM FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE            
 AVAILABLE AND WILL BE A RESULT OF UPPER AIR DYNAMICS.                          
 BOTH ETA AND GFS HINT AT POSSIBLY TWO SEPARATE EPISODES OF WINTERY             
 PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY                        
 THURSDAY...AND THE SECOND...LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST           
 SOUNDINGS SHOW BASICALLY ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL           
 SNOW WITH THIS FIRST EPISODE. MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT...BUT WITH                
 RAIN/SNOW RATIOS GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...              
 PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...LOOK LIKELY. INITIALLY...VERY DRY LOW                 
 LEVEL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY THURSDAY...THIS I THINK WILL HELP             
 KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW AT THE BEGINNING...BUT ALSO MAY DELAY THE                 
 ONSET...WHICH SHOULD BE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                             
 BY LATE THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST BY BOTH            
 THE NAM AND THE GFS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. A SECOND ROUND OF               
 LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY                
 LAYER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF KENTUCKY MAY ALLOW             
 SOME RAIN TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS WILL             
 BE LIGHT AS WELL...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ONE            
 INCH. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE                
 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY             
 AFTERNOON AS FLURRIES WILL BE ENDING.                                          
 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY                      
 MORNING...WITH HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON                 
 ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                                              
 JSD                                                                            
 .LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...                                               
 DEEP POLAR VORTEX JUST SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP VERY COLD           
 AIR LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES.              
 COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS HIGH                   
 PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRIGID AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE           
 SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY TWO ARCTIC FRONTS ARE FORECAST           
 TO MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND THE SECOND ONE                
 EARLY MONDAY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE              
 COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE LATE DECEMBER 2004.                                 
 JSD                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1056 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                    
 ...SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY              
 NEXT WEEK...                                                                   
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 15Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS SHOW WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING OVER            
 UPPER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A SHRTWV TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM NW                  
 MINNESOTA INTO SE WYOMING. WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH CLOUDS                  
 CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV TROUGH...THOUGH VERY             
 DRY AIR BETWEEN 650-900MB AS SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX...GRB AND INL                 
 SOUNDINGS HAVE KEPT SNOWFALL PRODUCTION AT A MINIMUM. IN FACT...THE            
 ONLY SNOW OCCURRING IS BACK IN THE FARGO AREA...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE            
 ON THE BACK SIDE OF A 1010MB LOW IN NW MINNESOTA. A TROUGH EXISTS TO           
 THE E OF THE LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND SE TO WHITEFISH            
 BAY. KMQT RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DECENT BANDS ALONG THIS            
 TROUGH NEAR GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY. THE             
 HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT IS ALSO ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND AS            
 NOTED BY VISIBILITIES OF 1SM OR LESS FOR THE PAST 5 HOURS. HAVE MADE           
 NUMEROUS CALLS TO COOP OBSERVERS THIS MORNING FOR VERIFICATION OF              
 THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND FOUND THAT SNOWFALL RATES WERE AS                  
 EXPECTED...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE            
 CONVERGENT BANDS (WHICH LOOK DECENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY               
 RIGHT NOW) NEVER STAYED IN ONE PLACE FOR MORE THAN 4 HOURS...MOST OF           
 THE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UNDER 6 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE                 
 COMBINATION OF LAND BREEZES AND HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV               
 TROUGH HAVE HELPED TO PUSH THE TROUGH AND HEAVIER LES NORTHWARD...             
 AND THIS TREND CAN BE OBSERVED IN THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. LASTLY...             
 TO OUR N...THE POLAR VORTEX STILL SITS UP IN HUDSON BAY...THOUGH IS            
 EXPECTED TO DROP S THIS WEEKEND TO BRING THE UPCOMING COLD WAVE.               
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS ONGOING HEADLINES.                                      
 THE 12Z RUC SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRESSURE             
 FIELD AND CONVERGENT AREAS FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...THUS HAVE                  
 FOLLOWED IT FOR THE UPDATE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO                   
 CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH PERHAPS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A                 
 SURFACE LOW/MESO-LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SHOULD            
 HELP PULL MOST...IF NOT ALL THE LAKE EFFECT...OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN.           
 STILL KEPT SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY AFTER 20Z           
 IN THE EVENT THAT THE BAND IS SLOWER TO MOVE NORTH. AS FAR AS                  
 HEADLINES GO...WILL LET THEM EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE SINCE THERE STILL IS           
 SOME DECENT SNOWFALL RATES OCCURRING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS.               
 SNOW AMOUNTS AND QPF FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE               
 EFFECT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING                
 ACROSS THE CWA SINCE WE REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF THE NW MINNESOTA SHRTWV           
 TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP SOLAR INSOLATION LOW...HOWEVER A 5 TO           
 15 MPH SW WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO GOING FORECAST            
 HIGHS. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS OR SKY COVER.                                  
 GRID UPDATE...ARBWSWMQT AND ARBZFPMQT UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 MAIN FCST ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND ONGOING HEADLINE LES EVENT...ANOTHER           
 POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED EVENT FRI WITH                  
 SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...AND THEN THE VERY COLD AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE              
 AREA IN ITS WAKE.                                                              
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GFS ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY PRONOUNCED RIDGE              
 ALONG THE W COAST OF NAMERICA. 500MB HEIGHTS THERE ARE 2.5                     
 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH TRANSLATES TO 370M ABOVE                
 NORMAL IN THE CORE OF THE ANOMALY OVER SE ALASKA/SRN YUKON.                    
 DOWNSTREAM TROF IS DOMINATING THE ERN 2/3RDS OF NAMERICA...AND THE             
 TROF WILL ONLY BECOME DEEPER DUE TO THE UPSTREAM POSTIVE HEIGHT                
 ANOMALY. IN THE NW FLOW...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SE THRU THE               
 DAKOTAS WHILE ANOTHER WAS TRACKING SE JUST TO THE E OF LAKE                    
 SUPERIOR. THE LATTER SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED INTENSIFY LES OVER ERN               
 LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH IS OCCURRING IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE BTWN WRLY               
 WINDS OVER UPPER MI AND NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE. LES BANDS HAVE HAD A           
 FAIR AMOUNT OF SEPARATION WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF               
 HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. MOST INTENSE BANDS ARE WIDELY SEPARATED.                 
 SFC WIND FIELDS SHOW CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE                   
 KEWEENAW (WIND DIRECTION WAS SSW AT ONTONAGON AND NW AT HOUGHTON).             
 WOULD EXPECT SOME HEAVIER SNOW TO BE OCCURRING IN THE PAINESDALE               
 VCNTY. EVEN SO...DRIER UPSTREAM AIRMASS PER 00Z KINL SOUNDING IS               
 PROBABLY HAVING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE NW FCST           
 AREA.                                                                          
 WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL VEER            
 A BIT MORE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND                
 SPEEDS WILL DECREASE. THE VEERING WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE            
 TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE ACROSS ERN ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES EARLY THIS             
 MORNING WHILE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY                    
 STATIONARY ACROSS CNTRL HOUGHTON COUNTY. FROM MID MORNING INTO THE             
 AFTN...WINDS WILL BACK SW IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THE NRN                   
 EXTENSION OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE                  
 ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE WIND FIELD RESPONSE. IT APPEARS            
 WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY BACKED TO END LES OVER ALGER/LUCE AROUND            
 18Z. SO...WILL ALLOW ONGOING WARNING FOR THAT AREA TO CONTINUE AS IS           
 UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 18Z. WIDE SEPARATION BTWN STRONGEST LES BANDS              
 WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE WARNING              
 CRITERIA OF 10 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT. MEANWHILE...THERE IS A BIT               
 MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WIND FIELDS OVER/NEAR THE KEWEENAW DUE TO SMALL            
 BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE NWD MOVEMENT OF CONVERGENCE            
 ZONE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY LATE AFTN...MAIN CONVERGENCE            
 WILL HAVE SHIFTED JUST N AND NW OF THE KEWEENAW. WITH WIND FIELDS              
 DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY THRU THE DAY AND THUS WEAKENING THE                  
 CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT LES IN THE MAIN BAND TO DIMINISH AS IT              
 LIFTS N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. OF COURSE...THAT IS NOT ALWAYS THE                
 CASE. IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF ONTONAGON/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES HAVE               
 SEEN VERY LITTLE/NO SNOW. RECENT REPORT FROM MASS CITY WAS JUST                
 LIGHT SNOW. PERHAPS THE AREA JUST N OF M-38 HAS SEEN SOME                      
 ACCUMULATION...BUT THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW AT THIS TIME OF DAY.                
 BASED ON THE SOLID SSW WIND AT ONTONAGON AND REPORT FROM MASS                  
 CITY...WILL DROP WARNING FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY AS CONVERGENCE AREA IS           
 PROBABLY JUST N OF COUNTY. WILL THUS ALSO DROP SRN HOUGHTON COUNTY             
 ADVY. NOT SURE WARNING WILL VERIFY FOR NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY...BUT               
 WITH CONVERGENCE ZONE THERE...WILL LET IT RIDE. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT             
 HEADLINE FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND                    
 18Z...BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT TO SEE HOW THE WIND                
 FIELDS ACTUALLY EVOVLE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE MAKING ANY           
 NECESSARY HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS. AWAY FROM LES...EXPECT DRY WEATHER             
 TODAY.                                                                         
 PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING MORE WRLY            
 AGAIN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. IF A BAND OF HEAVIER LES REMAINS INTO            
 THE EVENING OVER THE LAKE IN THE CONVERGENT ZONE THAT LIFTED N                 
 TODAY...IT WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE OVER THE KEWEENAW. WHILE GFS FCST            
 SOUNDING FOR KCMX INDICATES MIDLEVEL DRYING AND INVERSION SETTLING             
 DOWN TO 4-5KFT...NAM LOOKS MORE PROMISING FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH                
 INVERSION AT 6-7KFT AND DEEP LAYER OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW                 
 CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPS. FOW NOW...WILL PAINT NEAR ADVY LEVEL SNOW                
 ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. TROF HANGS UP OVER ERN LAKE                 
 SUPERIOR SO WSW WINDS WILL KEEP LES OFFSHORE OF THE ERN FCST AREA.             
 WINDS BACK TOWARD THE SW OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ALL THE MODELS           
 SUGGEST WINDS WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH WRLY COMPONENT TO KEEP LES E OF            
 FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...MIGHT SEEM PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES WITH PASSAGE             
 OF SHORTWAVE.                                                                  
 EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY THU UNDER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING                 
 DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL           
 BE THE SYSTEM INITIATING THE ARCTIC BLAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.             
 WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF WRLY COMPONENT THU OVER WRN LAKE                 
 SUPERIOR TO KEEP LES IN THE PICTURE FOR THE KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...               
 DRYING EVIDENT IN GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AND INVERSION DROPPING TO             
 3-4KFT WILL KEEP LES ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS NOT MUCH MORE THAN            
 FLURRIES BY AFTN.                                                              
 SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI WITH SFC LOW PRES            
 ORGANIZING AND THEN DEEPENING MOST LIKELY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE           
 TO HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES (850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -16C FRI                   
 MORNING). GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AND DEEP LAYER FORCING           
 WITH SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENING WITH TIME PER NAM/GFS 850-500MB QVECTOR           
 CONVERGENCE...SFC LOW AND THE WIND FIELDS TO THE W AND N OF SFC LOW            
 WILL PROBABLY BE STRONGER THAN WHAT ANY OF THE 00Z MODELS SHOW.                
 SHOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR             
 AS WINDS SWING SHARPLY AND STRONGLY TO THE NW. WILL LIKELY BE A                
 HEADLINE EVENT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE              
 SUPERIOR. TEMPS WILL RISE LITTLE OVER THE W WITH EARLY FROPA.                  
 OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE             
 SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. ACTUALLY...THE COLD WILL RIVAL               
 SOME OF THE COLDEST OUTBREAKS DURING THE LAST 10 YEARS. MEDIUM RANGE           
 MODELS FOR OVER A WEEK HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS SCENARIO...AND IT             
 IS NOW ONLY THE EXACT DETAILS OF HOW COLD IT WILL GET THAT REMAIN IN           
 QUESTION. CONSENSUS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS OF ECWMF/GFS RUNS IS THAT             
 850MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE -28 TO -32C RANGE LATE IN THE               
 WEEKEND. NOGAPS AND SEVERAL RECENT LOCAL HEMISPHERIC WRF-ARW RUNS              
 HAVE INDICATED 850MB TEMPS OF -34C TO AS LOW AS -38C. IT IS VERY               
 RARE TO SEE AIR THAT COLD HERE...SO THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE VIEWED AS              
 OUTLIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. IN ANYCASE...SAT THRU TUE WILL BE AN                
 EXTREMELY COLD PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SAT/SUN/MON. IT IS CERTAINLY                
 POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI AWAY FROM             
 LAKE SUPERIOR INFLUENCE WILL SEE TEMPS REMAIN BLO ZERO FROM FRI                
 NIGHT UNTIL TUE AFTN. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD                           
 COVER/WINDS...BUT -10F TO -20F SHOULD BE THE RULE AWAY FROM LAKE               
 SUPERIOR INFLUENCE. IF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE CAN SETTLE OVER THE AREA            
 ONE NIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MIN TEMPS IN THE USUAL WEST HALF COLD              
 SPOTS WOULD EASILY PLUMMET BLO -30F. WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG               
 THRU THE PERIOD...SO WIND CHILLS WON`T BE AS LOW AS COULD BE THE               
 CASE. AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...GFS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY              
 MOIST WITH HIGH INVERSIONS 8KFT TO AS MUCH AS 15KFT. HOWEVER...AN              
 OVERWHELMING NEGATIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS THE VERY COLD AIR                
 WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AND THUS                         
 ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY                
 LIGHT EACH DAY...DURING SNOW SHOWERS THE AIR WILL BE THICK WITH                
 SMALL SNOWFLAKES WHICH WILL BE EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING                 
 VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM TODAY MIZ003.                             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM TODAY MIZ006-007.                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TODAY MIZ001.                            
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (UPDATE)                                                                    
 ROLFSON (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                      
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                             
 254 PM MST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                                         
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAIN SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.                             
 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING              
 BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE               
 ROCKIES WITH TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO ATTM.                
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING NORTH            
 OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES ATTM. AT THE           
 SFC...COLD FRONT WHICH BLASTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS              
 MORNING IS CURRENTLY BACKED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH                  
 EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ATTM AS HIGH             
 PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. REGIONAL            
 SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING CLOUD TOP COOLING AND WIDESPREAD               
 ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM.                         
 FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE             
 WITH TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND 06Z THU           
 AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 12Z...AS NEXT CANADIAN SYSTEM CONTINUES           
 TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED                
 WITH PASSING SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL               
 COLORADO THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH                   
 ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST                 
 WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AXIS...SAVE THE CENTRAL MTS WITH CONTINUED              
 OROGRAPHIC FLOWS. HAVE KEPT CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE             
 SW AND CENTRAL MTS WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE             
 EVENING. SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATING GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES HAS               
 FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS ATTM...THOUGH WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST             
 LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP...WILL KEPT CURRENT                    
 HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AS WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL               
 ACCUMS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS           
 THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. SNOW HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY                 
 ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THUS FAR...BUT EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE AS             
 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES                  
 POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.              
 NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR            
 EASTERN PLAINS...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT                
 AHEAD OF PASSING SYSTEM. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS TO            
 REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND HAVE GONE AOB COOLEST                     
 GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN LUIS AND LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEYS WITH             
 PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY MORNING.                                          
 ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE AS               
 NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH                   
 ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST                   
 COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION               
 WITH FASTER MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE INTRODUCED                 
 CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND ALONG THE PALMER DVD FOR THE            
 AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW INCREASING               
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS WITH 1 TO 3                
 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -MW                                     
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (THU NIGHT THROUGH WED)                                                        
 ...FLUFFY SNOW ANTICIPATED FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI...                           
 ...PREPARE NOW FOR EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FRI-WEEKEND...                  
 ...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT-SAT...                       
 THU NIGHT AND FRI...NEXT CANADIAN WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING AIM            
 ON THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS IS STRONGEST ONE OF THE ARCTIC                 
 SYSTEM INTRUSIONS. SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SHOULD BE BLASTING THROUGH           
 CO THU NIGHT AND COULD BE FASTER. A LITTLE BETTER AND DEEPER                   
 SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IMPLIED GIVEN THE DYNAMICS. H5-H3 DIV-Q                  
 IMPLIED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION JUXTAPOSED WITH H8-H7 AND                       
 H7-H6 IMPLIED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PER 2-D PETTERSON ANALYSES.               
 BOTH 12KM WRF AND GFS HAVE THIS SCENARIO FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI                
 MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGH OF PRECIPITATION AND                  
 ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH "LIKELYS" FOR THU           
 NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS                   
 INCLUDING THE I-25 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ALONG THE             
 FRONT...EXCELLENT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOIST            
 LAYER RESULTING IN 20-1 TO 40-1 SNOW RATIOS PRODUCING FLUFFY SNOW              
 THAT CAN ADD UP QUICKLY IN LOW WATER CONTENT SNOWFALL. MIGHT NEED              
 SOME ADVISORIES FOR OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AS              
 THE EVENT NEARS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY FRI            
 AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING                
 FRI...BUT IF THE PRECIPITATION STOPS DURING THE THE AFTERNOON...THEN           
 THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES RECOVERY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES              
 FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET AND ONLY MINOR SPATIAL CONSISTENCY ISSUES             
 WERE TAKEN CARE OF.                                                            
 FRI NIGHT AND SAT...12KM WRF AND GFS KIND OF DIVERGE IN TERMS OF THE           
 AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING THAT OCCURS. THE GFS IS                
 SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MIDLEVEL FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WHILE THE              
 WRF HAS H7 TEMPERATURES -18C TO -26C EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD            
 SAT. IT SHOULD BE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE CHILLY TEMPERATURES...EITHER              
 EXTREMELY COLD OR VERY COLD. SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE                 
 HIGHLY PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH SOUTHERN CO LOCATIONS FRI NIGHT AND                
 STRUGGLING TO WARM SAT...ESPECIALLY IN TRAPPED VALLEYS AND OVER                
 DENSE SNOW-PACK. A BIG FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE DANGEROUS WIND                 
 CHILLS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. COULD REACH WARNING VALUES IN THE                   
 MOUNTAINS(E.G. -35F OR LOWER) AND ADVISORY TO MAYBE WARNING VALUES             
 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILL VALUES OF              
 -15F TO -35F LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. WIND CHILL HEADLINES              
 MAY BE NEEDED AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER               
 OUTLOOK HAS THIS HANDLED WELL RIGHT NOW. ANY PRECIPITATION                     
 POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY BY AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE              
 WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                                     
 SUN THROUGH WED...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT              
 WEEK AS THE EXTREMELY COLD TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD. MIDLEVEL                  
 WARMING STARTS SUN AND THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN AND IF THE           
 LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS RECEDES FROM EASTERN CO AND GETS "MIXED              
 OUT" FROM THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A                    
 MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE             
 IN HIGH VALLEYS AND DENSE SNOW-PACK AREAS LIKE KLAA. HPC GUIDANCE              
 HAS A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED. THIS MAY BE                
 VALID AS A PATTERN CHANGE TO WESTERLY FLOW GIVEN MANY OF THE                   
 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WARM-UP OVER           
 DENSE SNOW-PACK...WHERE HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TOO                     
 WARM PER GRIDDED VERIFICATION DATA. METZE                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060-066-                 
 068-072>075-079-080.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 23/17                                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 324 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                            
 ...SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS...                  
 SHORT-TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND SNOW           
 ACCUMULATION CHANCES WITH EACH.                                                
 TONIGHT-MIDDAY THURS...                                                        
 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AS AN               
 INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.           
 MOISTURE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE                  
 DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. SOUTHERN JET OF ROUGHLY 150 KTS OR SO WILL BE             
 OVERHEAD...WITH THE CWA UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
 AMPLE LIFT WILL THUS HELP SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD                   
 MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE               
 BETWEEN 10-17Z. SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES GIVEN UPSTREAM           
 REPORTS AND PROGGED -EPV ALOFT CO-LOCATED WITH MAX OMEGAS. BUT GIVEN           
 THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY           
 WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVSY FROM 1-2 INCHES              
 POSSIBLE MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEBANON. MAY BE A              
 BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE ADVY GIVEN THE NAM 18Z RUN...BUT 12Z                
 GFS/NAM AND HPC INDICATE FAR SRN KY COULD GET THESE ACCUMULATING               
 SNOWS. THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING NOT THE ACTUAL ACCUMS. GIVEN          
 TIME OF DAY (NEAR MORNING COMMUTE TIME) FELT IT WAS WORTH BUMPING              
 UP THE SPS TO AN ADVSY. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS               
 THE FAR SERN CWA.                                                              
 ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.              
 FEEL THAT THE THREAT IS MINIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL KY...HOWEVER A                
 BETTER CHANCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE DEFORMATION               
 ZONE DEVELOPING FROM KC TO WICHITA. THIS SHOULD ALIGN SOMEWHERE                
 ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...POSSIBLY NEAR THE KY/IN BORDER. SNOWFALL                  
 AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SPS AREA WILL BE HIGHER IN THE DEFORMATION                  
 ZONE...BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW ONLY.                         
 MAIN PRECIP WILL END BY MIDDAY (ADVY ENDS AT 18Z)...THOUGH LOW                 
 CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...EVEN A FEW              
 LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC              
 TEMPS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO               
 LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE                  
 SOUTH FOR NOW.                                                                 
 MIDDAY THURS-OVERNIGHT THURS...                                                
 SECOND WAVE IN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST               
 COAST RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE OF           
 A CLOSED SFC LOW AS OPPOSED TO A SFC TROUGH...AND IS COMBINED WITH             
 EVEN STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE                    
 LACKING...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE THERE FOR YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE                  
 ADVSY SITUATION THRS NIGHT-FRI MORN. WILL LOOK MORE AT IT TONIGHT              
 AND TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE HWO. THIS                   
 LATTER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE OF A CWA-WIDE EVENT TOO. WILL CONTINUE             
 WITH ONE-INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW.                                                  
 AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 5                 
 DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP OUR TEMPS            
 STEADY. TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY HEAT UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE                     
 AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL UNDERCUT RUC13/GFS AS I FEEL THESE ARE                 
 RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH. LOW TO MID 30S LOOK LIKELY FOR HIGHS THURS.            
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...                                                   
 FRI THRU SAT NGT...                                                            
 SHRTWV TROF WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GREAT                
 LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE            
 OF THE UPR LEVEL BROAD TROF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY. THIS ELONGATED            
 AXIS OF HIER VORTICITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THRU           
 OUR FA FRI WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MOVG WELL TO OUR NORTH...ACRS            
 THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERWARD...WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE END            
 OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER IMPLSE APPROACHING OUR FA SAT NIGHT.                
 ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU FRI...WITH A RIDGE OF HI PRES IN ITS           
 WAKE FOR FRI NIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR LIGHT           
 SNOW PRECEDING FRONT...MAINLY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.                    
 A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED                
 IMPULSE...WILL LIKELY MOVE THRU OUR FA SAT NIGHT. WILL DOWNPLAY                
 THE NAM/WRF DEEPER MOISTURE PRECEDING AND WITH FRONT AND CONT A                
 PARTLY CLOUDY FCST...CLOSER TO THE GFS.                                        
 11                                                                             
 SUN THRU WED...                                                                
 VERY COLD AND MAINLY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.                                     
 BROAD UPR LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE ACRS THE OH VLY THRU LATE MON WITH            
 AXIS SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST               
 WED. AFTER AXIS PASSAGE MON...OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLD NW FLO                
 THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND 12Z GFS                
 ARE SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A FAST MOVG CLIPPER SYS/WEAK SFC LO                   
 MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VLY SUN NGT AND EXITING MON MORNING. THIS             
 APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHC FOR A MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THIS                   
 PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY A 1 TO 3 INCH DRY FLUFFY SNOW ACRS OUR                    
 FORECAST AREA(FA)...MOSTLY OVER OUR NRN/ERN FA. TEMPS WILL BE                  
 UNSEASONALLY COLD...ESPECIALLY AFTER CLIPPER PASSAGE MON WITH                  
 SINGLE DIGIT READINGS MON AND TUE NGT AS ARCTIC HI PRES BUILDS                 
 INTO AND OVER THE LOWER OH VLY.                                                
 AFTER POPULATING WITH HPC GRIDS FOR TUE AND WED...WILL MAKE THE                
 FOLLOWING CHGS TO TEMP GRIDS. WILL RAISE SUN NGT MINS CONSIDERABLY             
 TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS/A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION              
 AHEAD OF CLIPPER. WILL RAISE MAXS MON A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO                  
 ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HPC AND TO AGREE BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.                 
 IF WE GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COVER BEFORE THIS PERIOD AND ON SUN           
 NGT AS WELL...THESE TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN...IN OTHER             
 WORDS...BELOW ZERO FOR MINS BEGINNING MON NGT.                                 
 DK                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                        
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SDF...LEX AND BWG TAF SITES               
 THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS TAF FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE                
 OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO              
 SOUTH WINDS...5 TO 10 MPH.                                                     
 MID-LEVEL DECK WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST FROM 21-00Z THIS                   
 EVENING. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR UNTIL 06Z FOR BWG...AND BY 10Z AND 12Z           
 FOR SDF AND LEX RESPECTIVELY...WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VISBYS              
 DOWN TO ONE MILE OR SO AT TIMES. ONSET OF -SN WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO             
 LOWER LEVELS NOT BEING FULLY SATURATED. MAY CARRY A TEMPO FOR                  
 HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE BWG TAF ROUGHLY FROM 10-14Z. ONCE SNOW                    
 BEGINS...MAY TREND TOWARD LOWER END MVFR CIGS AND IFR VISBYS WITH              
 THE HEAVIER SNOW SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.                    
 AL                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/            
      THURSDAY FOR KYZ062>066-070>078-081-082.                                  
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 434 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY                                             
 OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY               
 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT TEMPS REMAIN            
 IN THE TEENS...15 AT ADRIAN. THUS...LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE                  
 EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AND                
 POSSIBLY CLIMB A LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNDER A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION              
 REGIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVES                 
 AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE               
 AND A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LIGHT SIDE                
 WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SAGINAW VALLEY STANDS             
 TO SEE THE BEST ACTIVITY AS THAT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR LAKE LAKE             
 ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.                        
 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THE MODELS CONSISTENT              
 FORECAST OF THE SHORT WAVE SHEARING OUT WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT            
 OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER                             
 DIVERGENCE...WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET STREAK...           
 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXTRA LIFT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH           
 HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERY DRY 900 TO             
 700 MB COLUMN OF AIR WILL THEN MOISTEN UP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE              
 EARLY MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LACK OF              
 LOW LEVEL SUPPORT...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME                 
 SIDE.                                                                          
 BY THE TIME BETTER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...THE MID             
 AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STRIP AWAY AS THE UPPER                 
 SUPPORT BECOMES SHEARED OUT. HOWEVER WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND             
 800 MB ON THURSDAY NORTH OF DETROIT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT            
 BE RULED OUT.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...THE PLAINS WAVE WILL HAVE SHEARED TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT   
 LEAVING ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES UNTIL THE              
 NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE                
 LOOKS TO BE HANDLED WELL JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY BUT IT           
 IS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW AS IT MOVES                
 THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AT A             
 PREMIUM AS THE WAVE WILL BE CUT OFF FROM BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC                 
 MOISTURE SOURCES. HOWEVER, A BOOST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKS                    
 REASONABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY               
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS WORTH CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS FOR SNOW            
 SHOWERS.                                                                       
 OUR FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY            
 NIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS ALL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -20C            
 BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL                   
 INITIALLY HELP WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES, DESPITE SOME                
 CLOUD COVER, AS COLDER SURFACE AIR FLOWS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF               
 LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THIS SAME SW FLOW WILL               
 STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE               
 SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE            
 SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. IN THIS REGARD, GUIDANCE                      
 TEMPERATURES CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS LOOK OK BUT THESE                  
 READINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 10 TO 20 MPH WIND AND WIND CHILLS            
 NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.                                                            
 THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODELS ON THE HANDLING            
 OF THE SATURDAY WAVE. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTIONS, OF WHICH THE GFS            
 IS ONE, AS RENEWED HEIGHT FALLS GET UNDERWAY IN CENTRAL CANADA AND             
 ANCHOR THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL                
 BRING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND AND REPLENISH THE             
 ARCTIC AIR MASS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MOST               
 BRUTAL PORTION OF THE COLD OUTBREAK WHEN FACTORING IN BOTH                     
 TEMPERATURE AND WIND TAKING WIND CHILL TO AROUND -20F. THE GFS                 
 FORECASTS 850 MB TEMPS TO DROP DOWN NEAR -28C WHICH CORRESPONDS TO             
 DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. IN            
 FACT, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY IN REGIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA SHOW            
 A FEW READINGS STILL BELOW ZERO WITH SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPERATURES. IN           
 ADDITION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY MORE OF A SURFACE                  
 PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL DIRECT A SW             
 FLOW OF LESS MODIFIED AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE LAST TIME METRO                
 DETROIT HAD AT LEAST TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGH                 
 TEMPERATURES WAS IN JANUARY 1994.                                              
 VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE CORE           
 OF THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO           
 SHOW THE VORTEX MOVING EAST BY TUESDAY BUT DEEP NW FLOW WILL                   
 CONTINUE THE SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.             
 SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND               
 BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, PREVENTING THE LESS MODIFIED              
 AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE REGION.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...ISSUED AT 104 PM EST                                               
 SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO                    
 SUPPORT MID CLOUDS TODAY. MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE                            
 THIS AFTERNOON AT THE FNT AND MBS TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS               
 EXPECTED PERIODICALLY. MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN AGAIN AND BECOME               
 MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH              
 OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO                   
 REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED               
 LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO                   
 PROVIDE FNT AND MBS WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED                 
 SNOW SHOWERS...THUS THE REASONING FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR                         
 VISIBILITIES IN THAT AREA.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN 
      THURSDAY.                                                                 
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422 UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.             
 LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LCZ460 UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.  
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...JDS                                                               
 LONG TERM....BT                                                                
 AVIATION...JDS                                                                 
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 330 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 ...SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT               
 WEEK...                                                                        
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED OVERALL              
 UPPER TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...EXCEPT ALONG THE              
 WEST COAST INTO ALASKA WHERE A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXISTS.                    
 FAIRBANKS 850MB TEMP WAS 10C! WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE ARE A            
 FEW FEATURES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER WESTERN            
 MINNESOTA. DPVA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND A LITTLE               
 MORE MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LIGHT              
 SNOW ON THE MINNEAPOLIS RADAR ACROSS THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA INTO SW              
 WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE NORTH END OF THIS REFLECTIVITY SHIELD IS              
 MAINLY VIRGA...DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS NOTED BY THE 12Z MPX                
 SOUNDING AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20F. THIS DRY LOW              
 LEVEL AIR...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A 1007MB LOW               
 WEST OF DULUTH...HAS HELPED PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT CONVERGENT BAND               
 AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW BACK OUT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF                 
 LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RESULT IS NOW ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS             
 THE CWA. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO REGARDING THE EXPIRED HEADLINES...               
 PLACES ACROSS THE KEWEENAW ENDING UP WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES WHILE THOSE            
 BETWEEN THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKESHORE AND TAHQUAMENON FALLS            
 ENDED UP WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES. ACROSS THE LUCE COUNTY LINE IN                    
 PARADISE...HOWEVER...SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED 10 TO 15 INCHES. THE               
 SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE COLD AIR           
 ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY LES TO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...IS A              
 STRONGER SHRTWV LOCATED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BEHIND THIS                
 SHRTWV...850MB TEMPS ON 12Z RAOBS WERE OBSERVED NEAR -30C. THE                 
 ACTUAL ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL            
 SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THU)...                                               
 TONIGHT...THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO TRACK                 
 ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 06Z. ALL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD           
 HANDLE ON THE SNOW AFFECTING THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA AND BASICALLY HAVE           
 MUCH OF IT GOING ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. IT APPEARS              
 THE NORTHERN END MAY CLIP THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES...BUT AGAIN               
 GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN ACROSS THE CWA AND ON THE 12Z GRB             
 SOUNDING...DO NOT BELIEVE MUCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. MEANWHILE...HIGH           
 RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THAT THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
 SHRTWV WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN           
 MOVE TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE TROUGH EXTENDING             
 SW FROM THE LOW WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SOME LES ALONG IT...PERHAPS EVEN           
 THE CURRENT LES BAND THAT EXISTS ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE                
 SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...MODELS DEPICT THE CONVERGENCE TO NOT BE AS                 
 STRONG AS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND THUS THE              
 QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT NEARLY AS GREAT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT             
 OF THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW BASED ON THE 13 KM RUC AND OUR HIGH               
 RESOLUTION WRF RUN SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO STAY SW                
 UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK TONIGHT.            
 THU...AS THE SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PLOWS SOUTHWARD INTO            
 THE NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW            
 WHICH TRACKS TO DULUTH BY 00Z...SW FLOW REDEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.             
 HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS NOT ALL THAT              
 STRONG...WHICH MEANS THAT THE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE KEWEENAW              
 PENINSULA TONIGHT MAY GET HUNG UP OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY ON THU. THIS            
 SCENARIO IS DEPICTED WELL IN HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS AND THE GFS.                 
 THEREFORE HAVE RAISED BOTH POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE KEWEENAW.             
 KEPT AMOUNTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH...SINCE THE                 
 CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH ONLY A 90 DEGREE            
 CHANGE IN DIRECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY (COMPARED TO 180 DEGREES WITH           
 THIS PAST EVENT). ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF                 
 TONIGHTS SHRTWV LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE              
 CWA DRY.                                                                       
 ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT              
 AND THU BASED ON INCREASES/DECREASES IN CLOUD COVER AFFECTING                  
 RADIATION PROCESSES. NOTE THAT THESE READINGS WILL BE THE WARMEST              
 THAT WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE FOR AWHILE...PROBABLY            
 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                                                     
 .LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED)...                                     
 FCST FOCUS FOR THU NGT/FRI CONCERNS TIMING/IMPACT OF FAIRLY SHARP              
 SHRTWV FCST TO DROP FM SCNTRL CAN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. MODEL TREND            
 HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO/ARCTIC                 
 FNT...SO FOLLOWED THE FASTER GFS/UKMET/CNDN MODELS FOR TIMING THE              
 ARCTIC BNDRY PER NCEP PREFERENCE OVER THE SLOWER NAM. GFS SHOWS                
 HEALTHY DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/12HR H5 HGT FALLS NEAR               
 150M ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO WI AT 12Z FRI AND THEN TO LK           
 HURON BY 00Z SAT. ARCTIC FNT PROGGED TO REACH THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z FRI           
 BEFORE PASSING ERY SHORTLY AFT 18Z. CONSIDERING THESE POTENT                   
 DYNAMICS AND DEEP MSTR DEPICTED ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS...WL MAINTAIN            
 CATEGORICAL POPS AOA MOS FCST OVER THE W AS EARLY AS LATE THU NGT              
 AND THEN ACRS ALL BUT THE SCNTRL ON FRI. SINCE THE SHRTWV IS PROGGED           
 TO MOVE QUICKER WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF DPVA THU NGT AND THEN                  
 DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC/LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON FRI...THE ONLY              
 ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FCST WX WL BE TO START THE HIER POPS EARLIER              
 W-E THU NGT AND THEN END SYNOPTIC SN POPS EARLIER FRI AFTN. ARRIVAL            
 OF ARCTIC AIR WL SPUR ONSET OF LES OFF LK SUP ON FRI...AND THERE               
 APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A 6-HR PD OF LK ENHANCEMENT OVER THE W BEFORE           
 THE DYNAMICS EXIT FRI AFTN AND THE ACTIVITY EVOLVES TO PURE LES.               
 SINCE FINER SCALE EXTENDED RUC13 GUIDANCE HINTS THE SFC LO MAY GET             
 STUCK OVER ERN LK SUP WITH LATENT HEATING OFF THE WARM LK SUP                  
 WATERS...THINK THE MORE W LLVL WIND FIELD WL BE LESS FVRBL FOR LK              
 ENHANCEMENT E OF THE HURON MTNS. ALTHOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF THE VERY LO           
 H85 TEMPS (DOWN TO -25C AT IWD BY 00Z SAT) WL NEGATIVELY IMPACT SN             
 GROWTH MICROPHYSICS...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR               
 LATE THU NGT THRU FRI FOR WRN COUNTIES BORDERING LK SUP AS WELL AS             
 BARAGA COUNTY. WL GO WITH FALLING TEMPS OVER THE W ON FRI WITH                 
 ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                                                         
 12Z UKMET/GFS/ECMWF SHOW REINFORCING SHRTWV/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC           
 ARRIVING FRI NGT BEFORE DEPARTING ON SAT. ARRIVAL OF THIS SHRTWV/              
 DYNAMICS/DEEPER MSTR WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS FOR LK ENHANCED SN...BUT            
 AIR IS SO COLD (H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE -24C TO -28C RANGE) LES                  
 OVERALL WL BE RELATIVELY LGT WITH POOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH                     
 MICROPHYSICS. ONLY CONCERN WL BE BAND OF HEAVIER SHSN THAT COULD               
 DVLP IN SHARP CNVGC BTWN MORE WLY LAND BREEZE FLOW OVER LAND AND               
 SYNOPTIC SCALE NW WIND OVER LK SUP. LATER SHIFTS WL NEED TO EVALUATE           
 THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES ONCE THE LOCATION OF THESE LLVL CNVGC               
 AREAS CAN BE DETERMINED WITH MORE CONFIDENCE. WITH MORE WLY LAND               
 BREEZE FLOW FRI NGT IN BACKED WINDS AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV...PREFER            
 LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR LO TEMPS. GOING FCST HI TEMPS BLO ZERO              
 OVER THE INTERIOR W SEEM RSNBL ON SAT GIVEN GFS/ECMWF FCST OF H85              
 TEMPS APRCHG -30C BY 00Z SUN IN WAKE OF SHRTWV.                                
 00Z-12Z OPS MODELS/00Z GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT              
 SHOWING HI AMPLITUDE TROF IN ERN NAMERICA PERSISTING THIS WEEKEND              
 INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH FCST H85 TEMP BOTTOMING OUT AS            
 LO AS -28C TO -32C THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MODERATING MON-WED. 12Z                 
 TRENDS ARE SIMILAR...BUT LESS AGGRESSIVE AT RAISING THE H85 TEMPS              
 THAN EARLIER RUNS. HOWEVER...GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINT THAT            
 CORE OF COLDEST AIR (H85 TEMPS AOA 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO NORMAL)           
 WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MON/TUE FOLLOWING REINFORCING SHRTWV/SFC LO ON             
 SUN/MON AS FCST BY 06Z GFS. THIS FCST WOULD SUG SGNFT MODERATION WL            
 NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WED. WL GO WITH FCST TEMPS NR THE LO END OF MOS               
 GUIDANCE FOR SAT-TUE. FCST SOMEWHAT HIER...MORE WDSPRD POPS ON                 
 SUN/SUN NGT TO ACCOUNT FOR PSBL REINFORCING SHRTWV. THE OPS MODELS             
 DO SHOW A SOMEWHAT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THIS            
 SHRTWV AND IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN                      
 PLAINS...WHICH ALG WITH SAT (SHARPER PRES GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF              
 FRI LO) MIGHT END UP BEING THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS AT             
 LEAST CLOSE TO WRNG CRITERIA. OTRW...THE ONLY PCPN THRU THE PD WL BE           
 LES MAINLY IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS LIMITED BY VERY COLD AIR THAT WL            
 HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SN GROWTH. BUT... SMALL SNFLAKE SIZE WL BE           
 EFFECTIVE AT LIMITING VSBY.                                                    
 COORDINATED WITH DLH/GRB.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  WINTER STORM WATCH THU NIGHT AND FRI MIZ001>004-009-084.                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (SHORT TERM)                                                                
 KC (LONG TERM)                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 335 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 BAND OF SNOW WITH FAIRLY SIG 850-700 MB THETA E ADVECTION AS                   
 DEPICTED BUT RUC HAS MOSTLY MOVED OFF INTO WI BUT REMAINS OF UPPER TROF        
 MOVING ACROSS REST OF AREA THIS EVENING. FAIRLY SIG TROP LOWERING              
 WITH THIS TROF..AND SIMILAR FORCING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA               
 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THE              
 GFS ON TIMING AND IS VERY CLOSE TO ECMWF/UKMET. THE FIRST BLAST OF             
 COLD AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE STRONGER SURGE WILL BE               
 FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. THE UPPER JET WILL             
 BE CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON                    
 FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY NEED AN ADVISORY IN WESTERN CWA ON THURSDAY            
 NIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION/WIND CHILLS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.              
 THE LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE TROUGH THURSDAY                        
 AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT WILL SPEED UP THE ONSET A BIT. HAVE PAINTED                
 IN A SMALL POP/ABOVE GUID/ FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BASED ON                 
 THE ABOVE MENTIONED FORCING AS WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS                    
 ENTRENCHED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.             
 HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER DRAMATICALLY IN THE SKY GRIDS WITH THE              
 ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JPR                                                                            
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                             
 406 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...SNOW THIS MORNING WAS MOST CONCENTRATED OVER                     
 NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES. LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET                   
 ELSEWHERE WAS MORE INTERMITTENT...BUT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH               
 FOLLOWED HAS GREATLY IMPACTED TRAVEL. THIS OCCURRED AS WESTERLY                
 MID LEVEL WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE REMOVED MOISTURE FROM THE ICE                   
 CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE...WHILE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUED AT              
 LOWER LEVELS. THERE IS A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE UPGLIDE PUSHING             
 THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT             
 WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS                      
 EVENING...SO LOW LEVEL DOWNGLIDE WILL BE THE RULE                              
 OVERNIGHT...HOPEFULLY PREVENTING ANY MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE.                    
 MEANWHILE...WE STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO RECEIVE A SWATH OF SNOW                
 LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT ESPECIALLY                     
 HEAVY...ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR EITHER SIDE OF THE THURSDAY                   
 MORNING COMMUTE...AGAIN IMPACTING TRAVEL. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED                
 THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND                  
 WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. ORIGINALLY...THIS WAS EXPECTED              
 TO BE RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN              
 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL WELL BELOW                        
 FREEZING...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO EAST AND                     
 NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER                   
 ADVISORY FOR A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE SNOW ADVISORY. REALLY              
 DIFFICULT TO DRAW THE FREEZING LINE EVEN 12 HOURS AHEAD OF                     
 TIME...BUT OUR ADVISORY WILL BE BASED LARGELY ON THE 18Z RUC                   
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE 850 MB TEMPS.                    
 WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...THERE IS STILL BELOW             
 AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE NAM              
 HAS LATCHED ONTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE RED                      
 RIVER...WHILE THE GFS PAINTS MORE SNOW ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT               
 FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BOTH AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE               
 LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...AND LESS                
 CHANCE FOR MELTING IS WITH THE ACTIVITY FORECAST TO SURROUND INTERSTATE        
 40 BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FORECAST OF 1 TO 3             
 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A BROAD AREA...BUT MESOSCALE BANDING AND/OR                
 SOME WEAK CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO HIGHER TOTALS IN SMALL AREAS.                 
 WHATEVER DOES FALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE GROUND THROUGH THE                
 WEEKEND...AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT REMAIN CLOUDY...AND AN               
 ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LINGER               
 IN THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN SEEMS              
 A POSSIBILITY. WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE STALLED LOW              
 LEVEL FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC              
 FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT THIS PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT...BUT AS             
 WE HAVE SEEN...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.                        
 IN THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SEEMS UNLIKELY TO                       
 BUDGE...WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN OMEGA BLOCK ON AN UNUSUALLY LARGE              
 SCALE...FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE IN THE                
 BLOCK MAY TEND TO MOVE EAST BUT ALSO BE BATTED BACK BY LOW LEVEL               
 COLD AIR INTRUSIONS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. SO WILL CONTINUE A COOL             
 FORECAST...BUT WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND.                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  32  20  26 /  90  70  20  30                             
 HOBART OK         27  31  21  28 /  90  40  30  30                             
 WICHITA FALLS TX  32  36  26  32 /  80  40  30  30                             
 GAGE OK           20  29  16  21 /  60  20  30  30                             
 PONCA CITY OK     21  29  16  22 /  60  50  20  20                             
 DURANT OK         32  38  28  35 /  80  70  30  20                             
 &&                                                                             
 .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
      OKZ014>019-021>032-040-042.                                               
      SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>044.            
      SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>013-020.                
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ045>048-          
      051-052.                                                                  
 TX...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083.                        
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ084>086.          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BURKE/SIX                                                                      
</pre> ok                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                            
 342 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN ARKANSAS AND LAKE...DYER             
 AND OBION COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE TO THE SNOW ADVISORTY. RADAR AND SURFACE       
 TRENDS INDICATE THE SNOW MOVING EAST. ROAD CONDITIONS GETTING                  
 SLIPPERY VERY QUICKLY DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES. LATEST RUC MODEL SOME          
 HELP WITH PROGRESSION OF SNOWFALL...BUT STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THAN       
 ANTICIPATED PROVIDING BETTER THAN FORECAST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR              
 LIFTED MOTION                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007/                        
 SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
 COLD HIGH RETREATING OFF THE EAST COAST.  RADAR TRENDS SHOW                    
 PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.      
 WITH THE LOW LEVELS SO DRY...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION INDICATED               
 ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER OVER NORTHEAST                    
 ARKANSAS IT IS. WITH LOW LEVELS SO COLD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING ON               
 ROADS FAST. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THE MODELS BY                      
 GENERALLY 5 DEGREES. WITH MODELS NOT HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL                    
 TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS TO OUR SHORT              
 TERM FORECAST.                                                                 
 SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                 
 RADAR TRENDS SHOW SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FOR             
 SOME TIME. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. WITH                  
 TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S ALL OF THE SNOW IS STICKING NICELY. HAVE                
 DECIDED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY.                   
 FOR THE REST OF THE AREA MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER                    
 MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. MUCH OF THE               
 LIFT FOR THIS EVENT IS ISENTROPIC AND BROAD IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH                
 JET STREAK IS FAIRLY STRONG THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE              
 CYCLOGENESIS. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE BROAD AND             
 LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH                
 WINTER PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE MIDSOUTH. THIS              
 COUPLED WITH THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND WE HAVE A NEED TO               
 PINPOINT THE IMPACTS.                                                          
 OUR PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN TWO BURSTS. TONIGHT...MIXED                     
 PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING               
 IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE LOCATION OF THE BEST ISENTROPIC                
 LIFT AND MOISTURE. THE PROBLEM IS THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE AN                 
 ONSET OF FREEZING RAIN FROM FULTON TO TUPELO TO OXFORD. THIS IS                
 WHERE TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED MOST WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING OVER             
 TO RAIN LATER ON THURSDAY. AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA             
 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.                                               
 TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD             
 BEGIN AS SNOW...HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH ACCUMULATIONS             
 RANGING FROM AN INCH TO ONLY A DUSTING. THIS MAKES IT HARD TO                  
 DETERMINE WHETHER WE SHOULD ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD              
 OFF AND WAIT ON ANY WIDESPREAD ADVISORIES...EXCEPT IN NORTHEAST                
 ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE              
 ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.                                 
 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PROBLEMATIC.  ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE           
 MOVES INTO MS/AL RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING IN THE                
 AFTERNOON.  AGAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TYPE.  FOR NOW BELIEVE THE              
 MODEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE TOO WARM IN THE LOWER LEVELS (THEY               
 SUGGEST A DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH PRECIPITATION?) WILL KEEP RAIN            
 FOR THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...A MIX OF THE MIDDLE THIRD           
 AND ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH.  AGAIN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE                
 LIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW TEMPERATURES PLAY OUT A WINTER WEATHER            
 ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.                                                        
 WILL USE THE UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  NAM            
 IS TOO SLOW WITH COLD AIR SEEPING IN.  CONSEQUENTLY WILL GO LOWER              
 THAN GUIDANCE WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE STRONG COLD AIR                    
 ADVECTION.  OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD               
 LOOKS WARM.  BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISING WITH LOW LEVEL COLD             
 AIR IN PLACE. ...BELLES...                                                     
 LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS IN                  
 GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN ARCTIC LOW PINWHEELING AROUND HUDSON BAY             
 THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER              
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH             
 THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO                
 THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOW END               
 OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SINCE OPERATIONAL GFS NUMERICAL                   
 GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK                
 BASED ON UPPER AIR PATTERN AND VERY COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES.                   
  ...CJC...                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 MEM  27  38  30  38 /  80 100  60  10                                          
 MKL  23  36  28  35 /  80  90  60  10                                          
 JBR  20  34  24  34 /  80  90  60  10                                          
 TUP  29  39  33  41 /  90 100  60  10                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AR...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-          
      LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-RANDOLPH.                                            
 MO...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.               
 MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST                 
      THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-                
      MARSHALL-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION.                       
 TN...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-OBION.                
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST                 
      THURSDAY FOR HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> tn