AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
841 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE...                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG ACTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN              
INDIANA. STORMS HAVE PASSED SBN...BUT SHOULD REACH FWA LATER THIS               
EVENING. EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AGAIN LATER                        
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS                 
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS              
IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE               
AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND SURROUNDING AREAS HAS RECOVERED               
QUITE WELL FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WERE NEAR 90            
JUST UPSTREAM AND DEW POINTS 70 TO 75. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING YIELDED            
CAPE OF OVER 5200 J/KG...AND 17Z LAPS CAPE NOT FAR BEHIND AT                    
4000-4500. HOWEVER...GIVEN EARLIER CANOPY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL                 
CLOUDS AND EARLIER CONVECTION...EXPECT INITIATION TIME TO BE                    
SOMEWHAT LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ACARS SOUNDING FROM BMI                   
INDICATED A SMALL CAP JUST BELOW 800 MB...ALSO SUGGESTING A LATER               
INITIATION TIME. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A CAP. A WELL              
DEFINED VORT MAX ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WAS NEAR DSM AT 18Z...AND             
SHOULD REACH NW INDIANA/FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY 04Z/MIDNIGHT EDT.              
EXPECT CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.                  
ONGOING FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS             
AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO APPEARS ON TRACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE               
WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE            
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...BY AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE                
AIRMASS TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHTER WIND             
FIELD...POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH SLOWER MOVING                  
STORMS WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY WITH                       
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING               
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT FRIDAY DRY THIS PACKAGE AS NCEP            
MODELS SHOWING MIXED SOLUTIONS. MAIN FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS THE                 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SW CONUS. THE               
GFS AND ECMWF HAS SHOWN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE STRENGTH AND                 
PROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS            
WAS SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE            
TROF AXIS SHIFTED WEST A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE                   
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WERE 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE BETWEEN THE GFS.               
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE ANALOGS SHOWED A PATTERN                
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY...SO WITH ALL CONSIDERED...KEPT THE FORECAST               
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE             
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM....SKIPPER                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
255 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENING W/OUTBREAK OF SVR STORMS EXPECTED...           
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS              
IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE               
AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND SURROUNDING AREAS HAS RECOVERED               
QUITE WELL FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WERE NEAR 90            
JUST UPSTREAM AND DEW POINTS 70 TO 75. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING YIELDED            
CAPE OF OVER 5200 J/KG...AND 17Z LAPS CAPE NOT FAR BEHIND AT                    
4000-4500. HOWEVER...GIVEN EARLIER CANOPY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL                 
CLOUDS AND EARLIER CONVECTION...EXPECT INITIATION TIME TO BE                    
SOMEWHAT LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ACARS SOUNDING FROM BMI                   
INDICATED A SMALL CAP JUST BELOW 800 MB...ALSO SUGGESTING A LATER               
INITIATION TIME. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A CAP. A WELL              
DEFINED VORT MAX ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WAS NEAR DSM AT 18Z...AND             
SHOULD REACH NW INDIANA/FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY 04Z/MIDNIGHT EDT.              
EXPECT CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.                  
ONGOING FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS             
AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO APPEARS ON TRACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE               
WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE            
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...BY AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE                
AIRMASS TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHTER WIND             
FIELD...POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH SLOWER MOVING                  
STORMS WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY WITH                       
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING               
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT FRIDAY DRY THIS PACKAGE AS NCEP            
MODELS SHOWING MIXED SOLUTIONS. MAIN FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS THE                 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SW CONUS. THE               
GFS AND ECMWF HAS SHOWN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE STRENGTH AND                 
PROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS            
WAS SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE            
TROF AXIS SHIFTED WEST A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE                   
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WERE 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE BETWEEN THE GFS.               
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE ANALOGS SHOWED A PATTERN                
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY...SO WITH ALL CONSIDERED...KEPT THE FORECAST               
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE             
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN             
THROUGH IA AND BACK INTO NE/KS WHILE A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED UP                 
NORTH OF BOTH SBN AND FWA. MAIN FEATURE TO KEY ON EXPECTED TO BE MID            
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS VORT MAX OVER EASTERN IA WITH SPEED MAX MOVING UP                
INTO NORTHERN IL. EXPECT THIS TO INTERACT WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE               
BOUNDARIES LAID OUT OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A VERY UNSTABLE                
AIRMASS...TO TRIGGER TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE              
EVENING HOURS AND IMPACT BOTH TAF SITES. WILL INTRODUCE AS VCTS LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BRINGING PREVAILING -SHRA TO BOTH SITES...BUT             
STILL LEAVING CIGS VFR. EXACT TIMING STILL IN QUESTION BUT WILL                 
BRING IN A 1 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO INDICATE TREND EXPECTED.                
CANNOT RULE OUT ADDL MCS CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL WAIT FOR             
THIS TO UNFOLD AND LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...LOGSDON                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM....SKIPPER                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
815 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.MESO UPDATE...                                                                 
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS             
WILL MOVE FROM DODGE CITY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS            
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OR IF MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL               
KANSAS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST.                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING TWO MESOSCALE COMPLEXES. ONE OF THE             
COMPLEXES IS MOVING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF CONCORDIA WHILE THE OTHER             
COMPLEX EXTENDS FROM DODGE CITY TO ST. JOHN. LATEST PROFILERS ARE               
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KTS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH              
EXCEPT AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS DODGE CITY WHERE THE LATEST 00Z SOUNDING             
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS IS             
ALSO EVIDENT ON THE SURFACE OBS. THIS IS VERY CONCERNING ESPECIALLY             
WITH THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO. THIS                 
WHOLE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE DODGE CITY AREA COULD END UP                   
DEVELOPING INTO A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) THIS                  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE A STRONG COLD POOL/MCV. WITH THAT             
IN MIND...THIS MCS COULD MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 04Z AND              
PUSH EAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING                
HOURS. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH WIND            
SPEEDS UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE. THOSE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS                 
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THIS COMPLEX COULD PRODUCE                 
ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED FRIDAY NIGHT.                  
ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE COMPLEX OF STORMS EAST OF CONCORDIA IS ALSO               
TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTH. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS             
EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE               
OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS COMPLEX MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME                 
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG IT...BUT I WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING             
WIDESPREAD WITH THIS COMPLEX.                                                   
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE SEVERE CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT THAN               
PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN THU.                                                       
THIS EVE AND TNGT:                                                              
INSTABILITY (SBCAPES OF 3500-4000 J/KG) AND UPPER 60S SURFACE                   
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG SURFACE TROF AND REMNANTS OF THE               
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM DDC TO HYS TO CNK. SB CIN CONTINUES            
TO WEAKEN...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY BY THE                  
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH RUC SHOWING FN-CONVERGENCE            
MAXIMIZED NEAR THE BOUNDARY.  INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT            
SUGGEST STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING                   
DAMAGING WINDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INVERTED V SOUNDING             
WITH DRIER LAYERS NEAR THE SURFACE. SO WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN            
THE GRID/ZONES.                                                                 
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE                 
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO             
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE SE TOWARDS ICT AS            
THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AREA FROM ICT            
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THIS CHANCE.                                                  
THU:                                                                            
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...                     
(ESPECIALLY OVER SRN/SERN KS) AS REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION               
FORMS MORE OF AN MCV THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SERN KS INTO SWRN MO. SO             
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AS THIS MCV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.                     
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR FOR THE                 
AFTERNOON HOURS AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY             
INTO SRN KS. LOTS OF INSTABILITY AGAIN WILL POOL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY            
WITH THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THU EVE/NIGHT.  WILL KEEP                 
CHANCE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS AS 850H BOUNDARY REMAINS A LITTLE                 
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT                 
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN INCREASES.                     
FRI:                                                                            
COULD SEE SOME MORNING REMNANTS AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON                  
FRI...ESPECIALLY IN SRN KS (FURTHER SOUTH THAN THU MORNINGS).  WEAK             
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND                 
NIGHTIME HOURS.  SO WILL REDUCE POPS FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY                   
PROGRESSES...WITH CLEARING SKIES POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS IN CEN KS.                                                                
SAT-SUN:                                                                        
THIS IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN TIME FRAME AS MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS            
FOR SAT INTO SUN.  UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOES GO MORE NW WITH                      
TIME...WITH GFS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA              
FOR SAT.  THIS MODEL ALSO SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING             
ITS WAY ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA BY SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME CONVECTION                 
POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NERN KS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MOST OF SAT               
WITH THIS IN MIND...AS EVEN THE ECMWF ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT IN THE              
LOW LAYERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT.                                             
WILL KEEP THE POPS IN PLACE FOR SUN AS GFS ADVERTISES THE WEAK                  
BOUNDARY IN NEBRASKA DROPPING ACROSS CEN KS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.             
NOT ALOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT                 
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE                 
BOUNDARY TO WARRANT A LOW POP.                                                  
MON-WED:                                                                        
NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT AS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT             
WEEK STARTS...WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES ACTUALLY RETROGRADING             
TO THE WEST SOME.  THIS WILL ALLOW PROBABLY ALLOW NOCTURNAL                     
CONVECTION TO AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER MAKERS FOR TUE INTO WED             
AS LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN SETS UP ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MED RANGE GFS                
HINTS AT THIS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NE/NRN KS.             
WILL NOT BITE ON THIS JUST YET...AS MCS TYPE SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO                
PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.                                                          
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    71  84  67  86 /  60  70  40  20                                
HUTCHINSON      70  84  65  86 /  80  70  40  20                                
NEWTON          71  84  67  86 /  60  70  40  20                                
ELDORADO        72  85  67  85 /  50  70  40  20                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  86  68  86 /  40  60  50  30                                
RUSSELL         66  82  64  86 /  90  50  20  10                                
GREAT BEND      69  83  64  86 /  80  50  30  10                                
SALINA          70  84  66  85 /  90  70  30  10                                
MCPHERSON       70  84  66  86 /  80  70  30  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  66  83 /  20  60  60  40                                
CHANUTE         70  85  66  84 /  20  70  60  30                                
IOLA            70  85  66  83 /  20  70  50  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  66  83 /  20  60  60  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
311 PM MDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE OF               
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH                
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN             
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN           
ATLANTIC. MEAN UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES               
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. ONE...WHICH COULD BE LEFT OVER CIRCULATION               
FROM LAST NIGHT...IS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE           
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THERE IS ANOTHER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE           
STRONGEST ONE LOOKS TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF             
THE COUNTRY. MAIN FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH WITH LOW             
LEVEL UPSLOPE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                                  
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...BASED ON                
SATELLITE MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DETAILS WELL.               
BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...THE MODELS ARE ALSO CLOSE WITH THE GFS            
DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT ESPECIALLY IS DOING             
WELL WITH THE SHORTWAVES IN QUESTION. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE              
DRY WITH THE GFS CLOSER. AT LOW LEVELS...THE UKMET DID BEST ON THE              
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY THE GFS. MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE WIND                 
FIELD WITH THE GFS/WRF-NAM ABOUT THE SAME. WILL BE GOING WITH A                 
BLEND OF THE MODELS.                                                            
TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET STAYS OVER THE                    
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS...THROUGH THE ENTIRE               
NIGHT. CONVECTION HAS STARTED FROM THE WEST BUT STORM MOTIONS ARE               
SLOW. AN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA HAS PUSHED INTO THE              
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL GET SOMETHING WITH THE SOUTHERN              
HALF SEEING THE MOST. WILL LAY OUT THE POPS THAT WAY.                           
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STAYS OVER THE EASTERN            
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOWING                 
ONGOING AND ACTUALLY EXPANDING PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY...                  
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. JUST GOING BY THE RUC13 WOULD SAY THERE IS           
MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ON THIS DAY THAN TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER             
LEVEL LIFT...PROBABLY FROM NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SYSTEM...WOULD                  
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THEN THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE               
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WILL BE MENTIONED             
ALL DAY. WITH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS...WILL TEND            
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.                                                     
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE                
FORECASET AREA DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR             
THE NIGHT IS MATCHING NEW GUIDANCE VERY WELL...AND DO NOT PLAN ON               
CHANGING AT ALL.                                                                
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT COMES IN DURING             
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE           
COLORADO COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE...           
AT LEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE           
NIGHT. WILL HAVE SOME SUN...AND WILL WARM IT UP A LITTLE ALTHOUGH NOT           
MUCH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND MOIST GROUND.                                       
SATURDAY...BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST               
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE                  
NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...ALL THE MODELS INDICATE LIFT THROUGH              
THE MID LEVELS INCREASING...BEGINNING RIGHT AT 12Z...THROUGH THE                
DAY. IT GIVES ME SOME CONFIDENCE THAT ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING             
THIS BUT ALL NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR THE WRF-NAM.                
WILL PUT SOME LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF PRECIPITATION...AND                
PROBABLY FOR THE DAY. WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR               
MAXES.                                                                          
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD             
AGREEMENT BETWEEN EACH OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS. SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW           
UP TOWARD THE END OF PERIOD. HOWEVER...ESSENTIALLY WESTERN RIDGE WILL           
BUILD AND LEAVE AREA OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH IN                
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE IN THE AREA. ALSO BOUNDARIES WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE                   
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS             
IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE               
SUNDAY. IT GETS A LITTLE MORE IFFY IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME              
FRAME BUT AM LEARY OF THIS FLOW PATTERN. DURING THAT TIME...IT LOOKS            
LIKE THE WESTERN PORTION WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. WENT PRETTY CLOSE           
TO GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE END WHERE THE GFS LOOKS TOO COOL BECAUSE             
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
320 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE SEVERE CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT THAN               
PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN THU.                                                       
THIS EVE AND TNGT:                                                              
INSTABILITY (SBCAPES OF 3500-4000 J/KG) AND UPPER 60S SURFACE                   
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG SURFACE TROF AND REMNANTS OF THE               
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM DDC TO HYS TO CNK. SB CIN CONTINUES            
TO WEAKEN...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY BY THE                  
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH RUC SHOWING FN-CONVERGENCE            
MAXIMIZED NEAR THE BOUNDARY.  INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT            
SUGGEST STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING                   
DAMAGING WINDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INVERTED V SOUNDING             
WITH DRIER LAYERS NEAR THE SURFACE. SO WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN            
THE GRID/ZONES.                                                                 
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE                 
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO             
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE SE TOWARDS ICT AS            
THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AREA FROM ICT            
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THIS CHANCE.                                                  
THU:                                                                            
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...                     
(ESPECIALLY OVER SRN/SERN KS) AS REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION               
FORMS MORE OF AN MCV THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SERN KS INTO SWRN MO. SO             
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AS THIS MCV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.                     
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR FOR THE                 
AFTERNOON HOURS AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY             
INTO SRN KS. LOTS OF INSTABILITY AGAIN WILL POOL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY            
WITH THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THU EVE/NIGHT.  WILL KEEP                 
CHANCE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS AS 850H BOUNDARY REMAINS A LITTLE                 
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT                 
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN INCREASES.                     
FRI:                                                                            
COULD SEE SOME MORNING REMNANTS AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON                  
FRI...ESPECIALLY IN SRN KS (FURTHER SOUTH THAN THU MORNINGS).  WEAK             
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND                 
NIGHTIME HOURS.  SO WILL REDUCE POPS FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY                   
PROGRESSES...WITH CLEARING SKIES POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS IN CEN KS.                                                                
SAT-SUN:                                                                        
THIS IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN TIME FRAME AS MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS            
FOR SAT INTO SUN.  UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOES GO MORE NW WITH                      
TIME...WITH GFS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA              
FOR SAT.  THIS MODEL ALSO SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING             
ITS WAY ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA BY SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME CONVECTION                 
POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NERN KS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MOST OF SAT               
WITH THIS IN MIND...AS EVEN THE ECMWF ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT IN THE              
LOW LAYERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT.                                             
WILL KEEP THE POPS IN PLACE FOR SUN AS GFS ADVERTISES THE WEAK                  
BOUNDARY IN NEBRASKA DROPPING ACROSS CEN KS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.             
NOT ALOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT                 
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE                 
BOUNDARY TO WARRANT A LOW POP.                                                  
MON-WED:                                                                        
NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT AS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT             
WEEK STARTS...WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES ACTUALLY RETROGRADING             
TO THE WEST SOME.  THIS WILL ALLOW PROBABLY ALLOW NOCTURNAL                     
CONVECTION TO AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER MAKERS FOR TUE INTO WED             
AS LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN SETS UP ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MED RANGE GFS                
HINTS AT THIS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NE/NRN KS.             
WILL NOT BITE ON THIS JUST YET...AS MCS TYPE SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO                
PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.                                                          
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    71  84  67  86 /  60  70  40  20                                
HUTCHINSON      70  84  65  86 /  80  70  40  20                                
NEWTON          71  84  67  86 /  60  70  40  20                                
ELDORADO        72  85  67  85 /  50  70  40  20                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  86  68  86 /  40  60  50  30                                
RUSSELL         66  82  64  86 /  90  50  20  10                                
GREAT BEND      69  83  64  86 /  80  50  30  10                                
SALINA          70  84  66  85 /  90  70  30  10                                
MCPHERSON       70  84  66  86 /  80  70  30  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  66  83 /  20  60  60  40                                
CHANUTE         70  85  66  84 /  20  70  60  30                                
IOLA            70  85  66  83 /  20  70  50  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  66  83 /  20  60  60  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMIT 2                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
910 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SKIES ARE               
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE LMK CWA AS OF 9 PM EDT. WE DID HAVE A COUPLE              
LONE SHOWERS POP UP JUST NE OF BWG AROUND 7 PM...BUT THOSE HAVE                 
LONG SINCE DIMINISHED. AIRMASS IS VERY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE              
LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH A DECENT CAP AROUND                  
850MB SEEN IN ACARS DATA EARLIER TODAY HELPED HINDER CONVECTIVE                 
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD STILL SEE AN ISLTD -SHRA THIS                  
EVENING...BUT CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO CONTINUE DRY FCST. ORGANIZED                
SEVERE WX OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES CONTAINED WITHIN BELT OF                
FASTER WESTERLIES...AND THOSE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF                
TO THE E.                                                                       
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/SKY/DEWPOINT GRIDS. UPDATED                 
FORECAST OUT BY 10 PM EDT.                                                      
CS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 315 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006)                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM             
TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF STATES. FARTHER NORTH...A TROUGH NOW             
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR BY EARLY TOMORROW. SEVERAL MINOR FEATURES MOVING EAST ALONG            
GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ARE PRODUCING SEVERAL            
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT WILL STRETCH FROM IOWA THROUGH MICHIGAN             
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM               
FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH OHIO. THIS FRONT               
WILL FARTHER MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STAY            
WELL NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.                            
OUR AREA FIRMLY WITHIN PERHAPS THE MOST HUMID AIRMASS OF THE SEASON             
SO FAR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH STRONG SURFACE                
BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH               
THIS EVENING. BOTH NAM AND RUC SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE              
OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES              
AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION...WHERE MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS WEAKER. ANY               
ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY AND PRODUCED LOCALIZED              
HEAVY RAIN.                                                                     
AFTER ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION...SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR            
OVERNIGHT. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE THIS A STICKY NIGHT WITH                    
PROBABLY OUR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES YET THIS YEAR.                        
TOMORROW...A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER LATER            
THIS WEEK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. AGAIN CONVECTION IS             
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS...WHERE RESIDUAL SURFACE            
BOUNDARIES AND A WEAKER CAP WILL BE LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES              
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE NORTH...TAPERING               
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.                                 
JSD                                                                             
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                 
TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS EXIST IN EXTENDED PD OF FCST. FIRST...IS                   
FRONTAL BNDRY SAGGING SWD ACRS OUR FCST AREA ON FRI AND ATTENDANT               
PRECIP. SECOND...IS INTERACTION OF THIS FRONTAL MOISTURE LATE THIS              
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DIG SEWD                  
TOWARD OH VLY.                                                                  
SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FRI SYS. EXPECT ONE OR MORE            
MCS'S TO BE IN PROGRESS TO OUR N OR NW...AND AT LEAST SHWRS/TSTMS               
COULD PROPAGATE OR DVLP INTO S-CNTRL IN LATE THU NGT/FRI MRNG.                  
S-CNTRL KY SHOULD BE CAPPED AND DRY THU NGT/FRI MRNG.                           
QUESTION EVOLVES AROUND HOW MRNG MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR N WILL                     
COMPLICATE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION AND CNVCTV OUTFLOW                         
BNDRIES...AND HOW MRNG CNVCTN WILL PROPAGATE AND AFFECT AFTN                    
REDVLPMT. 12Z NAM KEEPS MUCH OF MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR N DURG DAY                  
ALLOWING SCT AFTN TSTMS TO DVLP OVR OUR FCST AREA APPARENTLY FM                 
OUTFLOW FROM THE N...BEFORE A LINE OF TSTMS DVLPS AND SWEEPS ACRS               
OUR AREA LATE FRI/FRI NGT. GFS BASICALLY SAGS MOISTURE AND CNVCTN               
ACRS AREA DURG DAY. EITHER WAY...FRI SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE CNVCTV DAY             
ACRS NRN HALF OF FCST AREA...AND ACRS SRN SECTIONS EITHER FRI AFTN              
OR NIGHT.                                                                       
PRECIP WATER VALUES FM 1.75-2.0 INCHES AND K VALUES FM 35-40 SUGGEST            
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TSTMS. MID LVL LAPSE RATES NOT FCST TO BE TOO            
STEEP...BUT STEEP ENOUGH COMBINED WITH MDT-TO-STG LOW-LVL                       
INSTABILITY FOR SOME STG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SAG                
SEWD FRI NGT WITH LINGERING PRECIP PSBL SAT OVER ERN/SERN                       
SECTIONS.                                                                       
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD NOT PROGRESS TOO FAR EWD DUE TO AN                 
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO DIG SEWD INTO OH VLY SUN/MON.                
EARLIER GFS RUNS WHICH HAD BEEN RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYS                 
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK WWD...IS NOT SO WITH 12Z RUN. HOWEVER...12Z              
CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF MODELS (AND HINTED AT BY 72 HR UKMET) SHOW               
UPSTREAM SYS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN LATEST GFS.                
THUS...WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF PRECIP OVER ERN/SERN                 
SECTIONS OF FCST AREA ON MON AS DIGGING TROF PULLS MOISTURE BACK                
TOWARD BLUEGRASS REGION.                                                        
BY TUE/WED...EFFECTS OF THIS SYS SHOULD BE TO OUR E ALLOWING FOR                
DRY WX THROUGHOUT AREA. CURRENT EXTENDED MAX/MIN TEMP GRIDS WERE                
TWEEKED SOME BUT MAJOR CHANGES REALLY NOT NEEDED. EXPECT COOLEST                
TEMPS OVER ERN AREAS SUN/MON ESPCLY IF ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY.              
TWF                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
315 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM             
TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF STATES. FARTHER NORTH...A TROUGH NOW             
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR BY EARLY TOMORROW. SEVERAL MINOR FEATURES MOVING EAST ALONG            
GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ARE PRODUCING SEVERAL            
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT WILL STRETCH FROM IOWA THROUGH MICHIGAN             
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM               
FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH OHIO. THIS FRONT               
WILL FARTHER MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STAY            
WELL NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.                            
OUR AREA FIRMLY WITHIN PERHAPS THE MOST HUMID AIRMASS OF THE SEASON             
SO FAR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH STRONG SURFACE                
BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH               
THIS EVENING. BOTH NAM AND RUC SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE              
OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES              
AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION...WHERE MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS WEAKER. ANY               
ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY AND PRODUCED LOCALIZED              
HEAVY RAIN.                                                                     
AFTER ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION...SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR            
OVERNIGHT. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE THIS A STICKY NIGHT WITH                    
PROBABLY OUR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES YET THIS YEAR.                        
TOMORROW...A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER LATER            
THIS WEEK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. AGAIN CONVECTION IS             
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS...WHERE RESIDUAL SURFACE            
BOUNDARIES AND A WEAKER CAP WILL BE LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES              
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE NORTH...TAPERING               
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.                                 
JSD                                                                             
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS EXIST IN EXTENDED PD OF FCST. FIRST...IS                   
FRONTAL BNDRY SAGGING SWD ACRS OUR FCST AREA ON FRI AND ATTENDANT               
PRECIP. SECOND...IS INTERACTION OF THIS FRONTAL MOISTURE LATE THIS              
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DIG SEWD                  
TOWARD OH VLY.                                                                  
SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FRI SYS. EXPECT ONE OR MORE            
MCS'S TO BE IN PROGRESS TO OUR N OR NW...AND AT LEAST SHWRS/TSTMS               
COULD PROPAGATE OR DVLP INTO S-CNTRL IN LATE THU NGT/FRI MRNG.                  
S-CNTRL KY SHOULD BE CAPPED AND DRY THU NGT/FRI MRNG.                           
QUESTION EVOLVES AROUND HOW MRNG MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR N WILL                     
COMPLICATE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION AND CNVCTV OUTFLOW                         
BNDRIES...AND HOW MRNG CNVCTN WILL PROPAGATE AND AFFECT AFTN                    
REDVLPMT. 12Z NAM KEEPS MUCH OF MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR N DURG DAY                  
ALLOWING SCT AFTN TSTMS TO DVLP OVR OUR FCST AREA APPARENTLY FM                 
OUTFLOW FROM THE N...BEFORE A LINE OF TSTMS DVLPS AND SWEEPS ACRS               
OUR AREA LATE FRI/FRI NGT. GFS BASICALLY SAGS MOISTURE AND CNVCTN               
ACRS AREA DURG DAY. EITHER WAY...FRI SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE CNVCTV DAY             
ACRS NRN HALF OF FCST AREA...AND ACRS SRN SECTIONS EITHER FRI AFTN              
OR NIGHT.                                                                       
PRECIP WATER VALUES FM 1.75-2.0 INCHES AND K VALUES FM 35-40 SUGGEST            
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TSTMS. MID LVL LAPSE RATES NOT FCST TO BE TOO            
STEEP...BUT STEEP ENOUGH COMBINED WITH MDT-TO-STG LOW-LVL                       
INSTABILITY FOR SOME STG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SAG                
SEWD FRI NGT WITH LINGERING PRECIP PSBL SAT OVER ERN/SERN                       
SECTIONS.                                                                       
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD NOT PROGRESS TOO FAR EWD DUE TO AN                 
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO DIG SEWD INTO OH VLY SUN/MON.                
EARLIER GFS RUNS WHICH HAD BEEN RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYS                 
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK WWD...IS NOT SO WITH 12Z RUN. HOWEVER...12Z              
CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF MODELS (AND HINTED AT BY 72 HR UKMET) SHOW               
UPSTREAM SYS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN LATEST GFS.                
THUS...WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF PRECIP OVER ERN/SERN                 
SECTIONS OF FCST AREA ON MON AS DIGGING TROF PULLS MOISTURE BACK                
TOWARD BLUEGRASS REGION.                                                        
BY TUE/WED...EFFECTS OF THIS SYS SHOULD BE TO OUR E ALLOWING FOR                
DRY WX THROUGHOUT AREA. CURRENT EXTENDED MAX/MIN TEMP GRIDS WERE                
TWEEKED SOME BUT MAJOR CHANGES REALLY NOT NEEDED. EXPECT COOLEST                
TEMPS OVER ERN AREAS SUN/MON ESPCLY IF ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY.              
TWF                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1043 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING OVER THE                   
APPALACHIANS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPREAD OUT ABOVE THE UPPER             
MIDWEST AND EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY.             
ON GOING CONVECTION IS FOUND TO THE NORTH OVER OHIO...JUST BRUSHING             
PAST THE CWA. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEND OUT ITS OWN OUTFLOW                    
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MIX WITH OUR PRE-              
EXISTING BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION AND ENHANCE THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS A               
RESULT...WE ARE IN A HOLDING PATTERN...WAITING FOR THE EXPECTED                 
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER             
THE AREA WILL PROBABLY HINDER THE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST             
INITIALLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY.                   
WITHOUT ANY SPECIFIC FEATURES TO KEY ON...AM INCLINED TO RUN WITH THE           
CURRENT POPS AND UPDATE THE TEXT ZONES MAINLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING             
WORDING AND FOG. WILL FINE TUNE THE GRIDS FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS            
...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED. UPDATES TO TEXT PRODUCTS...IFPS            
GRIDS...AND WEB GRAPHICS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. THE CURRENT HWO IS             
WELL WRITTEN AND ADDRESSES THE SVR AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT QUITE WELL.            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
450 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH GOOD                
INSTABILITY AND TRAVERSING IMPULSES AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL               
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED STORMS TODAY. TRIGGERS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER            
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER STORM INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY            
MAKE UP FOR THIS ONCE AGAIN. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR                     
HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.                        
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN MORE FROM THE SOUTH                    
TOMORROW...WITH BOUNDARY HELD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. CURRENT                  
FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH A 20 INSTABILITY POP AND                
HIGH TEMPS OF AROUND 90.                                                        
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SAG SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN            
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER CANADA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING            
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. BEEFED POPS UP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 50            
PERCENT RANGE WITH THE BOUNDARY APPROACHING ALONG BETTER MID-LEVEL              
TRIGGERING. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTACT FROM SATURDAY             
THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                                
1143 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006                                                     
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...              
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DROP SE ACROSS CENTRAL KY. THIS AREA OF                 
SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH        
RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY          
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF COUNTIES...AND VIS ALREADY AT 4SM AT                 
SME...PATCHY FOG OR EVEN AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.                 
VALLEYS SHOULD BE THE MOST AFFECTED. MOST OF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION           
TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT             
LAKES AND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY NOW OVER NORTHERN KY.           
INCREASING HEIGHTS ON WED...SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TO A MIN...WITH              
TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT OR EXCEEDING 90 IN ALL BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.           
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF             
THESE HAVE BEEN SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. RUC SHOWS A WEAK VORT MOVING            
THROUGH ERN KY ATTM. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THIS                           
EVENING...TAKING THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT. RUC AND           
WRF MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. I WILL            
KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.                    
INSTABILITY DECREASES OVER OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINS RATHER               
HIGH OVER ILLINOIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FUEL               
SOME CONVECTION AS WELL. THIS COULD MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CWA            
OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY GOOD TRIGGER FOR TOMORROW...BUT THE           
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE CONVECTIVE                   
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...SO GENERALLY DID NOT FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE. WRF              
SEEMS TO BE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CAPES                 
AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF AROUND -7 ARE LIKELY.                   
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S...SO WHEN THESE TEMPS ARE           
REACHED AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE. THURSDAY                 
SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY...WITH THE H5 HIGH BUILDING             
OVER THE AREA. WITH THE INSTABILITY...KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR             
PRECIP. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE DIURNAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH               
THURSDAY NIGHT. MIXED DOWN 850 MB TEMPS...AND USED MOS FOR HIGH TEMP            
FORECAST. USED A COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCE AND KNOWN LOCAL                    
TEMPERATURE PATTERNS FOR MINS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF            
THE WEEK.                                                                       
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
GENERALLY USED DGEX DATA FOR A START WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS           
WAS ALSO CLOSE TO THE HPC PROGS. GFS STILL CONTINUES TO HAVE                    
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GFS HAS ALSO BEEN            
INCONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. GENERALLY...A WEAK COLD              
FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.                
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE MIDWEST ON            
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP PUSH A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH AROUND                
TUESDAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD          
AS INSTABILITY AND WEAK VORT MAXES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.                       
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE                
CLOUDS AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN. AGAIN USED MIXED DOWN            
850 MB TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND USED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER                 
INFORMATION TO DERIVE MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GREIF                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
930 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE GULF STATES. A WEAK WAVE IS            
MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE A MOVE VIGOROUS WAVE MOVES            
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS            
REVEAL THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT            
LAKES...WITH 80-100KT FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. 19Z SURFACE               
ANALYSIS PLACED A WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM A TRIPLE POINT IN               
UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN                  
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE COLD FRONT                   
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS WHERE IT STALLS. A TROUGH WAS                
NOTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.                                                       
MUCH OF THE RESIDUAL CIRRUS AND DIURNAL HIGH BASE CUMULUS HAS                   
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE             
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND THE VIGOROUS MCS DEVELOPMENT NEAR                    
DETROIT. WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE MCV EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND             
OVERNIGHT...THE NAM (WRF-NMM) ALLOWS THIS ENERGY TO BEGIN TO DROP               
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN A WEAKNESS IN THE             
850-300MB THICKNESS FIELD AS DEPICTED BY THE RUC ACROSS EASTERN                 
PENNSYLVANIA...ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN THE TRANSLATE                 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.                   
POSITIONING OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE               
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.              
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN              
VIRGINIA TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...RAISING DEW POINTS TO NEAR               
THE FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THIS IN TURN COULD LEAD TO AREAS             
OF LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.                                          
EXPECT MCS TRACK TO DEVELOP A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS                       
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR               
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY...WITH ACTIVITY            
SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON WEAKNESS IN                 
MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. BELIEVE IT WILL BE                  
DIFFICULT TO FORCE STORM INITIATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH 15-20             
KNOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DISRUPTING TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND                
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH.                                              
SEVERAL DEGREE C OF WARMING IS EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS AS A                  
RESULT OF MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS              
COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WHEN              
COMBINED WITH FORECAST DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO                 
RANGE BETWEEN 95 AND 100F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL REISSUE THE              
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (WBCSPSLWX).                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A                 
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT                
LATE TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS RISE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.                               
EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT TO               
LAY A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE                 
MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE               
SOUTHEAST MOST LIKELY THE PREFERRED MOTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
EXPECTING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY OVERNIGHT ONCE THE               
BAY BREEZE BREAKS DOWN LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY REACH 15 KNOTS              
WITHIN THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY.                                             
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE                 
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...GIVEN LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LAND AND LOWER 80S             
FORECAST OVER THE WATERS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MARGINAL (SYNOPTIC              
GRADIENT) FOR A BAY BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.                     
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.                
WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING AT PREDICTED VALUES. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS                
WANING TO A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...ROGOWSKI                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1040 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE              
FOR SOME SVR WX ACRS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FA MOVING QUICKLY               
ACRS ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FNT IS STILL JUST            
W OF ERY/ISQ...BUT ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE               
REGION S OF THE SHRTWV AND SFC RDGING BEHIND THE FNT HAVE ENDED THE             
SHRA OVER THE ENTIRE CWA EVEN TO THE E OF THE SFC FNT. SECOND COLD              
FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA IS NOW                
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SCT CLDS IN ADVANCE             
OF THIS BNDRY...AND CNDN THUNDER BAY RADAR SHOWS SOME SCT -SHRA TO              
THE NW OF YQT. UPDATED TO END SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FA THIS EVNG AND TO            
PUSH BACK TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHRA CHCS LATER TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH             
NEXT COLD FNT. 00Z RUC INDICATES THIS BNDRY WL ARRIVE OVER THE NW               
ZNS ARND 09Z...SO ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA CLOSER TO THE FROPA GIVEN             
RATHER UNEVENTFUL WX OBSVD AHEAD OF THE FNT THIS EVNG.                          
KC                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 428 PM)...                                          
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND PCPN POTENTIAL THRU                 
THURSDAY.                                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS             
THE CONUS. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES WAS UNDERCUTTING A            
RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. NRN BRANCH FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE               
IS AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SHARPLY S INTO               
NRN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO             
THE AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS APPROACHING THE             
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z RAOBS FROM KINL/KBIS INDICATED 12HR 500MB                
HEIGHT FALLS OF 50/70M RESPECTIVELY. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE...              
DEEP LAYER FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT SPREADING OVERTOP SFC TROF HAS             
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN NE MN EARLY THIS AFTN. STORMS              
HAVE SINCE SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI/CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. MLCAPE                 
AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50KT HAVE RESULTED IN A             
FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS. STRONGEST FORCING IS SPREADING OVER NRN LAKE             
SUPERIOR/ADJACENT ONTARIO WHICH MAY KEEP SVR THREAT A BIT MORE                  
LIMITED THIS EVENING ACROSS UPPER MI.                                           
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING ALONG             
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WHICH THE MODELS SHOW EXITING THE ERN FCST             
AREA BTWN 03-05Z. WILL CARRY SHRA/TSRA UNTIL PASSAGE OF SFC TROF.               
MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA FOLLOW ACROSS THE NRN FCST AREA UNDER SHORTWAVE.             
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING S THRU NRN                   
MANITOBA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL DROP S ACROSS UPPER            
MI VERY LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. A FEW SHRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING                
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SRN MANITOBA TO SRN             
HUDSON BAY. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW CHC POPS              
ALONG FRONT AS IT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. HAVE            
CONFINED ISOLD TS MENTION TO THE FAR S AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED                 
TIME TO DEVELOP INSTABLITY BEFORE FROPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS              
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEHIND             
FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...SKIES             
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN PARTLY SUNNY. AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT IS CHILLY              
WITH SFC OBS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE N HALF OF                  
MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN (12Z CHURCHILL RAOB SHOWED 850MB TEMP             
OF -4C). CORE OF COLD AIR WILL PASS NE OF THE AREA...BUT UPPER MI               
WILL STILL GET CLIPPED WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS BRIEFLY THU/THU NIGHT.             
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COOL AIR...BUT WILL             
LEAN TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR THU/THU NIGHT. GFS              
COOP MOS HAS MINS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS THU NIGHT            
(AS LOW AS 36 AT CHAMPION). THIS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN                  
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE                
AREA PROVIDING LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER             
AROUND 0.5 INCHES).                                                             
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES LINGERING ACROSS             
THE UPPER LAKES. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FAR W THOUGH FOR POSSIBLE               
AFTN CONVECTION AS GFS PUSHES MLCAPES TO 600-800J/KG. NAM ONLY SHOWS            
UPWARDS OF ABOUT 200J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHORTWAVE TRIGGER AND                    
RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN...WILL STAY WITH A DRY FCST FOR NOW.                      
ON SAT...NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING ESE TOWARD THE UPPER                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 12Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH SHORTWAVE AND SUGGESTS              
POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE WRN FCST AREA. WILL            
HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW GIVEN SLOWER ECWMF/CANADIAN TIMING.                    
SUN THRU WED...00Z UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT            
FOR THIS PERIOD. NW/WNW FLOW WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME               
WITH PERSISTENT TROFFING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES                     
DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...              
FIRST PCPN CONCERN IS ON SUN AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE                 
PUSHING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NO             
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT DUE TO A                 
FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW PATTERNS            
THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY HAVE NO PROBLEM GENERATING GENERALLY LOW              
COVERAGE SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. HAVE THUS             
EXPANDED GOING CHC POPS FOR SCNTRL/SW UPPER MI ACROSS ALL BUT THE               
ERN FCST AREA FOR SUN AFTN/EVENING (ERN FCST AREA SHOULD SEE LESS               
INSTABILITY WITH MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE). IN THE WAKE OF THAT                   
SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLIP IN A DRY DAY ON MON. UNCERTAINTY             
ABOUT SHORTWAVE TIMING SEEN IN YESTERDAYS 00Z/06Z RUNS FOR EARLY                
NEXT WEEK HAS DECREASED WITH TODAYS 00Z RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS                
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AS ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER AS IT                 
DROPS A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW TO NEAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z WED.               
TIMING-WISE...EXPECT FRONT TO CROSS THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE            
MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT THE BEST TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...WILL                
SPREAD LOW CHC POPS FROM W TO E...STARTING IN THE EVENING W AND                 
REACHING THE E BY TUE MORNING. WILL LINGER CHC THRU TUE AFTN OVER               
THE SCNTRL/SE IN THE EVENT FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.               
WILL GO WITH A DRY DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS...               
WNW/NW FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THRU THE               
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION NOW             
FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA             
INSTEAD OF PERSISTENT TROFFING. WILL NEED TO REASSESS THIS                      
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CONTINUITY IN LATER SHIFTS.                               
ROLFSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1015 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...INITIAL FRONT HAS REACHED THE WISCONSIN SHORELINE OF LAKE             
MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE AREA OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTION                 
WHICH RAVAGED SRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST               
INTO NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO...AND IS STILL PACKING QUITE A PUNCH.             
NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IMPACTED PORTIONS OF WRN AND                 
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS MOVED NE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS                  
GREATLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.               
ONLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WHITEFISH BAY              
AREA IN ERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE REST OF THE CWA IS NOW DRY AND                  
PARTLY CLOUDY.  UPSTREAM RADARS OVER WISCONSIN SHOW NO RETURNS.                 
HOWEVER...SURFACE OBS OVER SW ONTARIO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER                
ACTIVITY IN THE VCNTY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM              
THE SURFACE LOW THRU SW ONTARIO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST NAM                 
SUGGESTS SOME LIFT AND MOISTURE VIA A SHORT WAVE WILL GRAZE ERN UPR             
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...INITIAL FRONT WILL MOVE THRU                    
OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WITH IT. WILL LEAVE            
IN A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT END THIS                
CHANCE BEFORE DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA               
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL ALLOW THE SCA             
FOR WHITEFISH BAY...ST MARYS RIVER AND MOST OF THE LAKE HURON                   
NEARSHORE AREAS TO EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA.                 
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                            
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SW HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT                   
INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER. CLOSER TO HOME...WE FINALLY SAW A BIT OF              
CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CU QUICKLY FOLLOWED AS DEW               
POINTS ROSE INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN              
WI WAS LIFTING ENE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT OVER               
CENTRAL LAKE MI. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE LATE                
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING THRU NORTHERN            
LOWER MI. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS STILL IN               
FAR SW LOWER...SEPARATING MID 60S DEW POINTS AND SE WINDS TO THE NE             
AND NEAR 70 DEWS/SW WINDS TO THE SW. A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING               
IWD...WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NOW              
IN NORTHERN WI. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT.               
TONIGHT...STILL A FEW AVENUES FOR POTENTIAL SVR...THOUGH NONE ARE               
CERTAIN. WILL CERTAINLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WI/LAKE MI CONVECTION.             
WELL-DEFINED SWIRL SEEN IN RADAR ECHOES IN WI...INDICATING A                    
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX ABOUT WHERE IT SHOULD BE. WIND FIELDS             
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING (500MB WINDS INCREASING FROM 30KT TO            
50KT BY 03Z...EARLIER IN EASTERN UPPER MI). SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR             
STORM ORGANIZATION TO INCREASE...PERHAPS COMPENSATING FOR MARGINAL              
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SPECIAL 18Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS SHOW AN                    
ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM 900MB TO 700MB THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO               
OVERCOME WITHOUT MUCH MORE HEATING. IF WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION                
GETS GOING...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE MAIN THREAT...WITH FREEZING LEVELS             
RATHER HIGH FOR HAIL GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. THE LACK OF AN E-W                 
ORIENTED WIND SHIFT LINE ALSO WORKS AGAINST ORGANIZED SVR AND ANY               
POTENTIAL TOR THREAT.                                                           
MY BIGGER CONCERN IS NOW TO THE NW. NAM/RUC BOTH BRING MUCAPES TO               
1.5-2K J/KG (LIFTING FROM 925MB) IN A NARROW BAND JUST AHEAD OF THE             
ONCOMING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN DEVELOPING                 
LINEAR CONVECTION WITH A WIND THREAT AND MAYBE HAIL....DESPITE                  
BECOMING NON-SURFACE BASED AS IT HITS THE MARINE LAYER EAST OF ESC.             
THIS SVR THREAT DIMINISHES WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY WANES AND COLD              
FRONT GETS FARTHER FROM PARENT DYNAMIC FORCING (SHORTWAVE GRAZING BY            
LAKE SUPERIOR). WILL STILL NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO             
THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MI.           
OTHERWISE...EASTERN UPPER MI (AND EVENTUALLY NW LOWER) WILL DRY/                
CLEAR OUT CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM              
MID 50S FAR NW TO MID 60S FAR SE.                                               
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM A BIT              
SLOWER IN THE BEGINNING THAN THE GFS. LOOKING AT OTHER MODELS THE               
GFS LOOKS MORE ON THAN THE NAM. HAVE BLENDED THE FORECAST, BUT                  
LEANING TOWARD THE GFS A BIT.                                                   
THURSDAY...THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE MOISTURE AT               
850 MB, BUT THE MOISTURE IS PRETTY SHALLOW.  SO HAVE JUST A SLIGHT              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING AS THE FRONT                
GOES THROUGH. THEN WITH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON,               
THE COLUMN DRIES OUT.                                                           
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT THE 850            
MB LEVEL, THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY TO AROUND 25%. THE 500 MB               
TROUGH IS GETTING PRETTY FLAT AND THE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING INTO THE             
REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.                                      
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH                
MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AROUND 30% AND THE MOISTURE AT THE             
850 MB LEVEL AROUND 50% WOULD EXPECT THAT NO PRECIPITATION WILL                 
FALL.                                                                           
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE, BUT WITH IT IN                
MINNESOTA BY 12Z, THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL TO THE WEST.                          
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD               
AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE PRETTY                 
CLOSE. THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE SCATTERED ALL OVER THE PLACE,                    
HOWEVER, OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH            
THE GFS MEAN AND GEM MEAN. READING THE HPC DISCUSSION AND LOOKING AT            
THE FRONTAL POSITIONS LOOKS LIKE IT IS A PRETTY GOOD BLEND OF THE               
TWO. THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST VERIFYING THOUGH IS ON THE LOW              
SIDE AS THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE, AS STATED BEFORE, ALL OVER THE                 
PLACE. SO THE FORECAST WILL GO LIKE THIS...SUNDAY, THE SFC HIGH                 
REMAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A SFC LOW IN NE IOWA WHICH SINKS               
SE. MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE                
REGION DRY. TUESDAY, THE GREAT LAKES GET INTO A SANDWICH PLAY AS THE            
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH W UPPER BY 12Z AND A SECOND SFC LOW MOVES              
UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SW ONTARIO SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF            
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH N LOWER BUT               
STALLS OUT ON A KMKG TO KDET LINE, SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF                   
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
428 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND PCPN POTENTIAL THRU                 
THURSDAY.                                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS             
THE CONUS. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES WAS UNDERCUTTING A            
RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. NRN BRANCH FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE               
IS AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SHARPLY S INTO               
NRN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO             
THE AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS APPROACHING THE             
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z RAOBS FROM KINL/KBIS INDICATED 12HR 500MB                
HEIGHT FALLS OF 50/70M RESPECTIVELY. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE...              
DEEP LAYER FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT SPREADING OVERTOP SFC TROF HAS             
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN NE MN EARLY THIS AFTN. STORMS              
HAVE SINCE SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI/CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. MLCAPE                 
AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50KT HAVE RESULTED IN A             
FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS. STRONGEST FORCING IS SPREADING OVER NRN LAKE             
SUPERIOR/ADJACENT ONTARIO WHICH MAY KEEP SVR THREAT A BIT MORE                  
LIMITED THIS EVENING ACROSS UPPER MI.                                           
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING ALONG             
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WHICH THE MODELS SHOW EXITING THE ERN FCST             
AREA BTWN 03-05Z. WILL CARRY SHRA/TSRA UNTIL PASSAGE OF SFC TROF.               
MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA FOLLOW ACROSS THE NRN FCST AREA UNDER SHORTWAVE.             
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING S THRU NRN                   
MANITOBA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL DROP S ACROSS UPPER            
MI VERY LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. A FEW SHRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING                
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SRN MANITOBA TO SRN             
HUDSON BAY. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW CHC POPS              
ALONG FRONT AS IT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. HAVE            
CONFINED ISOLD TS MENTION TO THE FAR S AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED                 
TIME TO DEVELOP INSTABLITY BEFORE FROPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS              
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEHIND             
FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...SKIES             
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN PARTLY SUNNY. AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT IS CHILLY              
WITH SFC OBS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE N HALF OF                  
MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN (12Z CHURCHILL RAOB SHOWED 850MB TEMP             
OF -4C). CORE OF COLD AIR WILL PASS NE OF THE AREA...BUT UPPER MI               
WILL STILL GET CLIPPED WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS BRIEFLY THU/THU NIGHT.             
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COOL AIR...BUT WILL             
LEAN TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR THU/THU NIGHT. GFS              
COOP MOS HAS MINS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS THU NIGHT            
(AS LOW AS 36 AT CHAMPION). THIS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN                  
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE                
AREA PROVIDING LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER             
AROUND 0.5 INCHES).                                                             
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES LINGERING ACROSS             
THE UPPER LAKES. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FAR W THOUGH FOR POSSIBLE               
AFTN CONVECTION AS GFS PUSHES MLCAPES TO 600-800J/KG. NAM ONLY SHOWS            
UPWARDS OF ABOUT 200J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHORTWAVE TRIGGER AND                    
RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN...WILL STAY WITH A DRY FCST FOR NOW.                      
ON SAT...NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING ESE TOWARD THE UPPER                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 12Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH SHORTWAVE AND SUGGESTS              
POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE WRN FCST AREA. WILL            
HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW GIVEN SLOWER ECWMF/CANADIAN TIMING.                    
SUN THRU WED...00Z UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT            
FOR THIS PERIOD. NW/WNW FLOW WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME               
WITH PERSISTENT TROFFING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES                     
DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...              
FIRST PCPN CONCERN IS ON SUN AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE                 
PUSHING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NO             
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT DUE TO A                 
FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW PATTERNS            
THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY HAVE NO PROBLEM GENERATING GENERALLY LOW              
COVERAGE SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. HAVE THUS             
EXPANDED GOING CHC POPS FOR SCNTRL/SW UPPER MI ACROSS ALL BUT THE               
ERN FCST AREA FOR SUN AFTN/EVENING (ERN FCST AREA SHOULD SEE LESS               
INSTABILITY WITH MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE). IN THE WAKE OF THAT                   
SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLIP IN A DRY DAY ON MON. UNCERTAINTY             
ABOUT SHORTWAVE TIMING SEEN IN YESTERDAYS 00Z/06Z RUNS FOR EARLY                
NEXT WEEK HAS DECREASED WITH TODAYS 00Z RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS                
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AS ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER AS IT                 
DROPS A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW TO NEAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z WED.               
TIMING-WISE...EXPECT FRONT TO CROSS THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE            
MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT THE BEST TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...WILL                
SPREAD LOW CHC POPS FROM W TO E...STARTING IN THE EVENING W AND                 
REACHING THE E BY TUE MORNING. WILL LINGER CHC THRU TUE AFTN OVER               
THE SCNTRL/SE IN THE EVENT FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.               
WILL GO WITH A DRY DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS...               
WNW/NW FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THRU THE               
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION NOW             
FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA             
INSTEAD OF PERSISTENT TROFFING. WILL NEED TO REASSESS THIS                      
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CONTINUITY IN LATER SHIFTS.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
332 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SW HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT                  
INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER. CLOSER TO HOME...WE FINALLY SAW A BIT OF              
CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CU QUICKLY FOLLOWED AS DEW               
POINTS ROSE INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN              
WI WAS LIFTING ENE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT OVER               
CENTRAL LAKE MI. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE LATE                
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING THRU NORTHERN            
LOWER MI. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS STILL IN               
FAR SW LOWER...SEPARATING MID 60S DEW POINTS AND SE WINDS TO THE NE             
AND NEAR 70 DEWS/SW WINDS TO THE SW. A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING               
IWD...WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NOW              
IN NORTHERN WI. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT.               
TONIGHT...STILL A FEW AVENUES FOR POTENTIAL SVR...THOUGH NONE ARE               
CERTAIN. WILL CERTAINLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WI/LAKE MI CONVECTION.             
WELL-DEFINED SWIRL SEEN IN RADAR ECHOES IN WI...INDICATING A                    
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX ABOUT WHERE IT SHOULD BE. WIND FIELDS             
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING (500MB WINDS INCREASING FROM 30KT TO            
50KT BY 03Z...EARLIER IN EASTERN UPPER MI). SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR             
STORM ORGANIZATION TO INCREASE...PERHAPS COMPENSATING FOR MARGINAL              
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SPECIAL 18Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS SHOW AN                    
ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM 900MB TO 700MB THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO               
OVERCOME WITHOUT MUCH MORE HEATING. IF WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION                
GETS GOING...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE MAIN THREAT...WITH FREEZING LEVELS             
RATHER HIGH FOR HAIL GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. THE LACK OF AN E-W                 
ORIENTED WIND SHIFT LINE ALSO WORKS AGAINST ORGANIZED SVR AND ANY               
POTENTIAL TOR THREAT.                                                           
MY BIGGER CONCERN IS NOW TO THE NW. NAM/RUC BOTH BRING MUCAPES TO               
1.5-2K J/KG (LIFTING FROM 925MB) IN A NARROW BAND JUST AHEAD OF THE             
ONCOMING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN DEVELOPING                 
LINEAR CONVECTION WITH A WIND THREAT AND MAYBE HAIL....DESPITE                  
BECOMING NON-SURFACE BASED AS IT HITS THE MARINE LAYER EAST OF ESC.             
THIS SVR THREAT DIMINISHES WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY WANES AND COLD              
FRONT GETS FARTHER FROM PARENT DYNAMIC FORCING (SHORTWAVE GRAZING BY            
LAKE SUPERIOR). WILL STILL NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO             
THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MI.           
OTHERWISE...EASTERN UPPER MI (AND EVENTUALLY NW LOWER) WILL DRY/                
CLEAR OUT CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM              
MID 50S FAR NW TO MID 60S FAR SE.                                               
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM A BIT              
SLOWER IN THE BEGINNING THAN THE GFS. LOOKING AT OTHER MODELS THE               
GFS LOOKS MORE ON THAN THE NAM. HAVE BLENDED THE FORECAST, BUT                  
LEANING TOWARD THE GFS A BIT.                                                   
THURSDAY...THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE MOISTURE AT               
850 MB, BUT THE MOISTURE IS PRETTY SHALLOW.  SO HAVE JUST A SLIGHT              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING AS THE FRONT                
GOES THROUGH. THEN WITH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON,               
THE COLUMN DRIES OUT.                                                           
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT THE 850            
MB LEVEL, THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY TO AROUND 25%. THE 500 MB               
TROUGH IS GETTING PRETTY FLAT AND THE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING INTO THE             
REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.                                      
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH                
MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AROUND 30% AND THE MOISTURE AT THE             
850 MB LEVEL AROUND 50% WOULD EXPECT THAT NO PRECIPITATION WILL                 
FALL.                                                                           
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE, BUT WITH IT IN                
MINNESOTA BY 12Z, THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL TO THE WEST.                          
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD               
AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE PRETTY                 
CLOSE. THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE SCATTERED ALL OVER THE PLACE,                    
HOWEVER, OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH            
THE GFS MEAN AND GEM MEAN. READING THE HPC DISCUSSION AND LOOKING AT            
THE FRONTAL POSITIONS LOOKS LIKE IT IS A PRETTY GOOD BLEND OF THE               
TWO. THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST VERIFYING THOUGH IS ON THE LOW              
SIDE AS THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE, AS STATED BEFORE, ALL OVER THE                 
PLACE. SO THE FORECAST WILL GO LIKE THIS...SUNDAY, THE SFC HIGH                 
REMAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A SFC LOW IN NE IOWA WHICH SINKS               
SE. MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE                
REGION DRY. TUESDAY, THE GREAT LAKES GET INTO A SANDWICH PLAY AS THE            
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH W UPPER BY 12Z AND A SECOND SFC LOW MOVES              
UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SW ONTARIO SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF            
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH N LOWER BUT               
STALLS OUT ON A KMKG TO KDET LINE, SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF                   
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1245 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION FOR AFTN IS MAIN CONCERN                                 
WV LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE STRONG SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY OVR SE               
MANITOBA AND NW MN. H3 JET OF 100KT IS PUSHING INTO N MN. BOTH THESE            
FEATURES SHOULD PROGRESS STEADILY EWD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE            
EVENING. CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY SFC             
TROUGH OVR W MN. DLH HAS ISSUED SOME WARNINGS FOR ACTIVITY OVR MN               
ARROWHEAD. NOT SURE IF CONVECTION OVR UPR MI LATER TODAY WILL COME              
DIRECTLY FM THE NE MN ACTIVITY OR IF THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL                   
DEVELOPMENT OVR NW WI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT (TEND TO              
FAVOR THIS SECOND SCENARIO ATTM). MODIFIED SOUNDINGS (INL/MPX/GRB)              
AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALL POINTED TO MLCAPES BY LATE AFTN OVR W UPR MI              
BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE NEG AREA (T/TD OF 84/58). PLENTY            
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ONLY CONCERN EARLIER THIS                  
MORNING WAS LACK OF MOISTURE IN H9-H5 LAYER...HOWEVER INL SOUNDING              
SHOWED A BIT MORE MOISTURE CLOSER TO APPROACHING WAVE AND THIS SEEMS            
TO BE SUFFICIENT AS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVR NE MN.                         
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO UPR MI...EXPECT THEM TO                  
PROCEED EWD ACROSS CWA. INSTABILITY MAY BE LESS OVR E CWA WITH                  
LINGERING UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE (SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MORE                  
CAPPING) DUE TO EARLIER MORNING MCS THAT PASSED OVR WI/LWR MI. HAVE             
INCREASED CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED SVR THREAT DUE TO 0-6KM LAYER SHEAR             
UPWARDS OF 50KT AND SUFFICIEINT INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE                    
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT REGION. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND                   
SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN THREAT.              
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12.5KFT AND WBZERO HEIGHTS AT 11.5KFT ARE ALS             
FAVORABLE FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AS STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED INITIALLY.             
UPDATED/PUBLISHED GRIDS AND ZFPMQT (HIGHLIGHTING DAMAGING WINDS LATE            
AFTN INTO EVENING) ARE ALREADY OUT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT)...                                      
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERALLY DIE OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS            
OF GOOD DIURNAL HEATING AND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS.                       
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING ISOLD SHRA OVER NRN                
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN FROM SOUTHERN             
ONTARIO. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP S ACROSS UPPER MI THU                   
MORNING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS SSE INTO ONTARIO. TIMING OF              
FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT              
THERE MAY BE AN ISOLD TSRA OVER THE FAR S WHERE FROPA WILL OCCUR                
EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND SBCAPES WILL RISE TO A FEW                
HUNDRED J/KG. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA ALONG FRONT AS IT             
CROSSES THE AREA...WITH ONLY MENTION OF TSRA OVER THE FAR S.                    
SFC HIGH AND COOL/DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING UNDER 0.5            
INCHES PER NAM FCST) WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU NIGHT.            
GOING FCST OF LWR 40S MINS STILL LOOKS GOOD UNDER EXPECTED EXCELLENT            
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS MAY EVEN DROP A BIT MORE FOR               
FAVORED COOL SPOTS BASED ON GFS COOP MOS GUIDANCE.                              
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES LINGERING OVER               
THE UPPER LAKES. GFS STILL TRIES TO BRING MLCAPES UP TO AROUND 500              
J/KG ALONG THE WI BDR WITH MIMINAL/NO CIN BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY            
TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHRA AT THIS POINT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLA                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1045 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD THROUGH             
THE CWA AT 1045 AM.  FOR THAT I UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TO HAVE               
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM I-96 NORTH FOR                
THOSE THUNDERSTORMS.                                                            
THE MCS OVER SRN WI AND NRN IL IS DISSIPATING AS OF 1045 AM THIS                
MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING THIS WILL BE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY            
AFTERNOON. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF           
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS AND DEEP STABLE LAYER              
AS SEEN ON TAMDAR...AROUND 880 MB.                                              
THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE IOWA            
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. BY THEN               
THE CLOUDS FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE BROKEN UP ENOUGH             
TO ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE. AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID               
80S OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA WITH DEW POINTS NEAR              
70F. 12Z RUC40 SOUNDING SUGGEST EQ LEVELS NEAR 40000 FT.  CAPES NEAR            
3000 J/KG... AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CAPE ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL.             
THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS OVER 400 J/KG AT 14Z IN THE -10 TO -30C                 
RANGE. SFC BASED LI VALUES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.              
3 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 200 RANGE SO THERE IS SOME             
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR              
ROUTE 10 IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET SOME             
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GOING EAST              
OF US-131 DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.                               
THUS WE WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON FORECAST LARGELY AS IS.                         
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
541 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEGUN IN THE VICINITY OF CONCORDIA KS                 
WHERE 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK             
LOW CENTER. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE             
MAXIMIZED ALONG A GENERAL SW-NE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS               
DRAPED FROM FAR NRN MO INTO SW KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY                    
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF MUCH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE                    
REGIONWIDE...NOTED BY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH HAS LOCALLY BEGUN TO             
CONGEAL AND TOWER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.                                          
12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING AND RUC/NAM-WRF PROGS SHOW THAT VERY STEEP MID              
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION BENEATH A NARROW                
PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAKING NNE FROM PERSISTENT                      
CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED            
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS               
TIME.                                                                           
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN KS/NRN MO WILL DECOUPLE                    
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR AIDED BY AN INCREASING             
NOCTURNAL JET...ALONG WITH AMBIENT INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED LOW-MID            
LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD ALLOW CURRENTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO                  
STEADILY GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL                   
TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BACK BUILD...HOWEVER GENEROUS DCAPE VALUES               
AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE AND                 
FORWARD PROPAGATION...BRINGING AN EXPECTED MCS INTO THE AREA AROUND             
MIDNIGHT. THINK THE NAM-WRF HAS GENERAL HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE                    
EVOLUTION...BUT LIKELY MUCH TOO SLOW ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION.               
ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE MATURITY OF THE MCS...WITH                 
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR             
LARGE HAIL GIVEN ENHANCED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AREA OF CONCERN AT              
THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE                 
KANSAS CITY METRO TO TRENTON.                                                   
AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE BEST                
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR WRN MO/ERN KS IN                 
QUITE SOME TIME.                                                                
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
325 PM...                                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE TIED TO A WEAK FRONT                    
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST IA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER             
OF MO THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS. THE KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED            
LITTLE OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE AREA OF MOST               
IMPORTANCE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE                         
IA/NORTHWEST MO PORTION OF THE FRONT IS PASSING BY...SO THE FRONT               
WILL STALL AS IT CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MO. PLENTY OF CU HAS FORMED              
ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING MUCH MORE DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE             
FIELD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKENING ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPECT            
CONVECTION TO FORM SOON FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS.                         
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT            
OF CO THIS EVENING AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS KS. NAM-WRF IS FURTHER              
NORTH THAN THE GFS WHILE THE CANADIAN SHOWS TWO CENTERS BY 12Z                  
THURSDAY WHILE THE UKMET IS AT ABOUT THE SAME LATITUDE BUT A BIT                
FASTER. FAVOR THE NAM/UKMET SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INITIATING THIS            
EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS FRONT AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST INTO               
NORTHWEST MO LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE                   
RESULTING COLD POOLS WILL SHIFT THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SOUTH WITH                  
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE KC METRO BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE             
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER KS ON THURSDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME                     
BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION EVEN IF THE MCS MOVES AWAY FROM THE CWA              
IN THE MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY OVER            
A LARGE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES DUE TO              
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED STORMS. AM                    
STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT AND MORE OF A HYDRO            
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH A SLOW             
MOVING BOUNDARY AND STRONG SHORTWAVE. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RATHER                
WEAK                                                                            
WITH 850MB WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT FAVORING                  
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.                        
MJ                                                                              
UPPER LVL TROUGH LIFTS NE OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST             
AREA TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT             
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN              
MISSOURI THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY            
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT               
LAKES BUILDS INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS.                                  
WEBBER                                                                          
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT FOR THE              
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO             
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA WHILE UPPER RIDGING SETS UP              
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA                  
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING               
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO             
THE AREA DURING THE DAYS 4 TO 7 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT REMAINS                  
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT                       
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ONE SUCH POSSIBLE                      
DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SEASONABLY                
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.            
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
915 AM...                                                                       
WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST TO DROP RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY ACROSS THE             
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. MORNING RAOBS AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW            
A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS             
GOING FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA AS ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER                   
NORTHERN KS IS TRACKING EASTWARD WITH A SHEARED VORTICITY PATTERN               
SUPPORTING IT. IN ADDITION...STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NE IS             
SENDING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH NEW CONVECTION COULD            
FORM ALONG AND CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST MO              
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS FOR MORE SUN ACROSS             
SOUTHERN CWA AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.                             
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
915 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST TO DROP RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY ACROSS THE             
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. MORNING RAOBS AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW            
A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS             
GOING FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA AS ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER                   
NORTHERN KS IS TRACKING EASTWARD WITH A SHEARED VORTICITY PATTERN               
SUPPORTING IT. IN ADDITION...STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NE IS             
SENDING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH NEW CONVECTION COULD            
FORM ALONG AND CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST MO              
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS FOR MORE SUN ACROSS             
SOUTHERN CWA AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.                             
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
417 AM...                                                                       
CHALLENGING FORECAST AS UPPER PATTERN IS BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW                 
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONE WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE THIS MORNING                 
MOVING INTO IOWA...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIGHT ON ITS                 
HEELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY EVENING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE IS               
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THIS            
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON                   
THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING.                                      
EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING ROUNDS OF              
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP TO DRIVE A SURFACE                      
FRONT...THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHEAST             
NEBRASKA...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THAT BY THURSDAY MORNING...THIS            
FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO THIS POINT...BUT THEN             
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH GFS FOCUSING CONVECTION                
FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS UPPER SHORT WAVE LESS OF A COHERENT FEATURE              
AS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PRODUCES MULTIPLE VORT MAXES IN THE FLOW.                
NAM/WRF MODEL KEEPS SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MCS            
MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND TOWARD THE             
LATTER SOLUTION AND BUMP UP POPS INTO A LIKELY CATEGORY WITH THIS               
FEATURE.                                                                        
THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH            
OF FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SHORT WAVE PHASES WITH              
STRONGER UPPER WAVE OVER EASTERN CANADA...EXPECT MORE OF A NORTHWEST            
FLOW SETTING UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.                                         
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR MUCH OF THE              
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL TEMPER THE                
WARM UP A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. STILL WITH               
FRONT NOT MOVING MUCH TODAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...SHOULD             
SEE TEMPERATURES MAKE A QUICK RECOVERY.  AFTER TODAY...READINGS                 
SHOULD HEAD BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS AS FRONT SAGS THROUGH AREA.              
CONVERGENCE ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEVER VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT               
850 WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS ALOFT TO SUPPORT               
STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MID                
LEVEL COOLING STARTING TODAY WILL BE BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG CAP               
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. IF A STRONGER WAVE OCCURS AS NAM/WRF                    
SHOWS...WILL BE CONCERNED FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE STORMS BUT ALSO HEAVY             
RAIN AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.                                     
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
355 PM CDT TUE...                                                               
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN IL SNAKES NORTHWEST            
THROUGH NORTHEAST MO TO EAST CENTRAL NE BEFORE HEADING BACK TO THE              
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST KS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR             
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION            
MOVING EAST INTO NORTHEAST MO WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA SHORTLY. A                 
VORTICITY LOBE IS GUIDING THIS PRECIPITATION.                                   
GFS/NAM-WRF/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL PICK UP ON CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK                   
SIGNALS EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECTING TO SEE A              
SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES COME ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN A               
PSEUDO ZONAL TYPE FLOW. TIMING IS ONE ISSUE WHILE PLACEMENT OF                  
CONVECTION IS THE OTHER. 18Z NAM-WRF AND 20Z RUC PROG A VORTICITY               
MAX OVER CENTRAL CO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CLOUD                 
COVER AND FRONT RANGE CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE LINKED TO THIS                    
FEATURE. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION SPREAD/FORM EAST NORTHEAST ALONG              
THE KS/NE PORTION OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE NORTHWEST                
CORNER OF MO AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD            
ACT AS A CAP FOR SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO ALL BUT THE NORTHERN                
TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                             
COLD OUTFLOWS FROM THE IA/NE CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH             
INTO NORTHERN MO TOMORROW WHILE THE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL ACT TO COOL               
THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD                  
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP             
FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE IDEA LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED                   
EVENTUALLY. 0-6KM SHEAR AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT            
SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MAX             
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDANT ON CLOUD             
COVER. THINK LOWER 90S PRETTY REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CHANGE IN            
THE AIRMASS.                                                                    
FIRST DAY OF NAM-WRF SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS               
WELL AS SEVERAL SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS             
WHILE THE ABNORMALLY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH PLAGUED THE                   
PREVIOUS NAM HAVE BEEN CORRECTED....YEA.                                        
MJ                                                                              
FOR THURSDAY MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN            
KANSAS AT 12Z. THE NAM/WRF LIFTS THE TROF NE WHILE THE GFS TRACKS               
THE BASE OF THE TROF FURTHER SOUTH...PREFER THE NAM/WRF SOLUTION                
WITH STRONGER WINDS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND                
PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE             
JETSTREAM...WHILE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE              
FEEDBACK. SHORT WAVE APPROACHES ERN KS/NWRN MO DURING LATE AFTERNOON            
AND SHOULD HELP FIRE CONVECTION ALONG PERSISTENT SURFACE FRONT OVER             
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN                  
MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND                    
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT...HOWEVER LACK OF LOW LEVEL              
JET...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ALONG                 
FRONT MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.                                                  
WEBBER                                                                          
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE                 
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE POLAR VORTEX OVER               
JAMES BAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS A JET MAX                  
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF              
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI             
WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. ON THE GFS...THE FRONT             
IS DRIVEN SOUTH MAINLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK GENERATED OVER THE            
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS SLOWER DROPPING THE FRONT            
SOUTH. FOR EITHER SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MORE                 
PRONOUNCED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SHOW             
ME STATE. SO I HAVE INTRODUCE 40 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH OF THE                   
MISSOURI RIVER WITH LESSER CHANCES NORTH OF THE RIVER.                          
AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES JET MAX PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON                  
SATURDAY...AMPLIFICATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL               
PUT KANSAS AND MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE                
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERATE A CONVECTIVE SIGNAL OVER THE MID                   
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH BASED                    
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE A CHANCE            
TO REACH FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...SO FOR SATURDAY I HAVE INTRODUCED A            
30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI                     
COUNTIES...CARRYING THE CHANCE INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA               
SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NEBULOUS. FOR              
NOW...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW             
IS SELDOM DRY THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS TOO TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN ANY               
SPECIFICS...AND INCLUDING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR                     
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE 7 DAY FORECAST SEEMED TO BE TOO MUCH OF A                
BROADBRUSH AT THIS TIME.                                                        
KOCH                                                                            
FIRST DAY OF NAM-WRF                                                            
SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS WELL AS SEVERAL SMALL              
SCALE FEATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1156 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 532.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1050 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                   
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 530.                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 930 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW S/W TO TRACK ACRS SRN GRTLKS OVERNIGHT.                  
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHD OF THIS FEATURE ACRS NRN IN/NW                 
OH/SRN MI WHERE CAPES ARE BTWN 3500-4000 J/KG. ILN 00Z SOUNDING                 
SHOWS 50MB AVG CAPE AROUND 2600 J/KG BUT A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE.              
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING THIS CAP HAS INHIBITED TSTM                  
DEVELOPMENT. AS STORMS ACRS NRN INDIANA AND NRN OH WORK EAST AND                
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BUILD SWD INTO ILN/S              
FA. HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST RUC SOLN AND HAVE SLOWED TSTMS TIMING...               
TAKING STORMS INTO CNTRL FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SRN OH LATE                 
TNGT. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS ACRS THE NW WITH STORMS ACRS                
NRN IN SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD.                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 756 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                            
AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                           
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE                        
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES                 
THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NW OHIO THROUGH SE                    
OHIO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO                   
WITH MORE FIRING BACK WEST TOWARD CHICAGO. HAVE LEFT ALL                        
TERMINALS DRY AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN NORTH OF                 
SITES THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. WITH                   
MOIST AND MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE...KLUK COULD EXPERIENCE MVFR BR                
AROUND SUNRISE. WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HAVE CB                   
MENTION AT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RLG                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                  
IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION                
RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. S/W OVER MID                 
MS VLY TO TRACK EWD ACRS SRN GRTLKS THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTBY               
IN PLACE WITH 18Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATING A CAPE OF 2200 J/KG.                  
AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH UPR DIV TO WORK INTO NW OH LATE             
THIS AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CAPE WL LEAD TO THE                
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SPREAD E ACRS FA WITH              
BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE N. DELTA THETA E DIFFERENCE VALUES APPROACHING           
20 DEGS INTO THIS EVENING WITH WET BULB ZERO ABOVE 12K FEET. EXPECT             
DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.                            
EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TNGT IN THE WAKE OF THIS              
INITIAL S/W. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LOOKS LKLY ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL              
TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH AFTN HEATING WITH CAPE VALUES OF                 
2500-3000 J/KG. AN AXIS OF LO LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE NW DURG                
THE AFTN SHUD FOCUS STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH LKLY POPS ACRS THE NW                
TO CHC SE. HAVE EXPANDED THESE LKLY POPS SE WITH STORMS EXPECTED                
TO OVERSPREAD ENTIRE FA THU NIGHT.                                              
TEMP WISE...HAVE GENERALLY GONE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUID                   
THRU THE PERIOD.                                                                
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS. THUS AT THE BEGINNING            
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST SOUTH OF             
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND            
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE                    
SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.                                     
THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING                 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO             
THE NORTHERN ZONES. INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY AND REMAINS            
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH WEAKENING            
WITH TIME. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF I-71.                                             
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGHOUT.                
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1050 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                  
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 530.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 930 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW S/W TO TRACK ACRS SRN GRTLKS OVERNIGHT.                  
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHD OF THIS FEATURE ACRS NRN IN/NW                 
OH/SRN MI WHERE CAPES ARE BTWN 3500-4000 J/KG. ILN 00Z SOUNDING                 
SHOWS 50MB AVG CAPE AROUND 2600 J/KG BUT A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE.              
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING THIS CAP HAS INHIBITED TSTM                  
DEVELOPMENT. AS STORMS ACRS NRN INDIANA AND NRN OH WORK EAST AND                
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BUILD SWD INTO ILN/S              
FA. HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST RUC SOLN AND HAVE SLOWED TSTMS TIMING...               
TAKING STORMS INTO CNTRL FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SRN OH LATE                 
TNGT. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS ACRS THE NW WITH STORMS ACRS                
NRN IN SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD.                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 756 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                            
AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                           
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE                        
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES                 
THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NW OHIO THROUGH SE                    
OHIO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO                   
WITH MORE FIRING BACK WEST TOWARD CHICAGO. HAVE LEFT ALL                        
TERMINALS DRY AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN NORTH OF                 
SITES THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. WITH                   
MOIST AND MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE...KLUK COULD EXPERIENCE MVFR BR                
AROUND SUNRISE. WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HAVE CB                   
MENTION AT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RLG                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                  
IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION                
RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. S/W OVER MID                 
MS VLY TO TRACK EWD ACRS SRN GRTLKS THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTBY               
IN PLACE WITH 18Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATING A CAPE OF 2200 J/KG.                  
AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH UPR DIV TO WORK INTO NW OH LATE             
THIS AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CAPE WL LEAD TO THE                
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SPREAD E ACRS FA WITH              
BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE N. DELTA THETA E DIFFERENCE VALUES APPROACHING           
20 DEGS INTO THIS EVENING WITH WET BULB ZERO ABOVE 12K FEET. EXPECT             
DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.                            
EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TNGT IN THE WAKE OF THIS              
INITIAL S/W. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LOOKS LKLY ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL              
TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH AFTN HEATING WITH CAPE VALUES OF                 
2500-3000 J/KG. AN AXIS OF LO LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE NW DURG                
THE AFTN SHUD FOCUS STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH LKLY POPS ACRS THE NW                
TO CHC SE. HAVE EXPANDED THESE LKLY POPS SE WITH STORMS EXPECTED                
TO OVERSPREAD ENTIRE FA THU NIGHT.                                              
TEMP WISE...HAVE GENERALLY GONE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUID                   
THRU THE PERIOD.                                                                
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS. THUS AT THE BEGINNING            
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST SOUTH OF             
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND            
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE                    
SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.                                     
THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING                 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO             
THE NORTHERN ZONES. INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY AND REMAINS            
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH WEAKENING            
WITH TIME. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF I-71.                                             
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGHOUT.                
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
735 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(00Z-00Z)...                                                           
FIRST WAVE DEVELOPING AND THEN MORE SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE AIRMASS IS            
UNSTABLE. A BREAK THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN TIMING OF HOW MUCH                  
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON A SHORT WAVE BUT THE FRONT IS STILL REAL              
FAR NORTH.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM UPDATE...                                                           
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH.  ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS BASED             
ON RECENT TRENDS.  WESTERN OH COUNTIES RECOVER AS SUN BREAKS OUT.               
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...GOING CATEGORICAL                
WITH WATCH BOX.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL                  
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST.  DEW POINTS WERE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER            
60S IN THE EAST AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN                  
WESTERN OHIO.  LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST WITH THE               
CONVECTION ALLOWING CEILINGS TO THIN OUT AND ALLOW SOME SUN DURING              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE                 
ATMOSPHERE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER              
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO            
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RUC MODEL              
INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN               
2000 AND 3500 J/KG OVER WESTERN OHIO AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER                  
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.  CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND IT WILL LIKELY                
DIVE INTO THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER THE AREA.  MODERATE RISK            
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO INCLUDE THE REST             
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.                                                   
LARGE AREA OF NVA MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS WILL               
GIVE US A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE             
PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRIMED AND UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE                  
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLIP              
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE            
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY.                                          
I WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70              
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND WITH CLOUD COVER WE               
WILL NOT SEE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN                 
TOMORROW SO HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE EVEN MORE THAN TODAY SO WILL GO             
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY            
COOLER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                  
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT                
WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO               
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                     
SATURDAY.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL.  SO WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT             
BUT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES              
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL FORCE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY              
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY OVER            
THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.                            
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES             
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR.  THERE               
WILL BE ENOUGH MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP               
SKIES FROM BEING CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FROM                  
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  WILL UP MINS AND MAXES BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY                                                            
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
615 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE...                                                           
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH.  ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS BASED             
ON RECENT TRENDS.  WESTERN OH COUNTIES RECOVER AS SUN BREAKS OUT.               
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...GOING CATEGORICAL                
WITH WATCH BOX.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL                  
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST.  DEW POINTS WERE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER            
60S IN THE EAST AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN                  
WESTERN OHIO.  LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST WITH THE               
CONVECTION ALLOWING CEILINGS TO THIN OUT AND ALLOW SOME SUN DURING              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE                 
ATMOSPHERE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER              
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO            
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RUC MODEL              
INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN               
2000 AND 3500 J/KG OVER WESTERN OHIO AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER                  
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.  CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND IT WILL LIKELY                
DIVE INTO THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER THE AREA.  MODERATE RISK            
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO INCLUDE THE REST             
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.                                                   
LARGE AREA OF NVA MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS WILL               
GIVE US A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE             
PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRIMED AND UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE                  
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLIP              
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE            
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY.                                          
I WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70              
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND WITH CLOUD COVER WE               
WILL NOT SEE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN                 
TOMORROW SO HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE EVEN MORE THAN TODAY SO WILL GO             
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY            
COOLER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                  
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT                
WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO               
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                     
SATURDAY.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL.  SO WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT             
BUT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES              
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL FORCE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY              
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY OVER            
THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.                            
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES             
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR.  THERE               
WILL BE ENOUGH MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP               
SKIES FROM BEING CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FROM                  
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  WILL UP MINS AND MAXES BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS GENERALLY WEAKEND LAST FEW HOURS BUT SOME            
NEW DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ON BACK EDGE BEFORE GETTING EAST OF              
YNG AND ERI LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND             
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. MORE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP              
OVER CENTRAL GRTLKS AND MIDWEST TODAY. NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING AND                
INTENSITY BUT THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL PRETTY MUCH FORCE ME TO             
INCLUDE STORMS IN TAFS AND MY BEST GUESS IS THIS EVENING INTO FIRST             
HALF OF TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN MOST TAF SITES. SOME              
STORMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL             
NOT KEEP THEM IN TAF ALL NIGHT LONG. MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY BY                    
DAYBREAK AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTENED UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A              
BREEZE TONIGHT TO KEEP VSBY FROM GOING TOO LOW.                                 
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY                                                            
AVIATION...KOSARIK                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
249 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL                  
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST.  DEW POINTS WERE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER            
60S IN THE EAST AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN                  
WESTERN OHIO.  LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST WITH THE               
CONVECTION ALLOWING CEILINGS TO THIN OUT AND ALLOW SOME SUN DURING              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE                 
ATMOSPHERE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER              
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO            
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RUC MODEL              
INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN               
2000 AND 3500 J/KG OVER WESTERN OHIO AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER                  
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.  CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND IT WILL LIKELY                
DIVE INTO THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER THE AREA.  MODERATE RISK            
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO INCLUDE THE REST             
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.                                                   
LARGE AREA OF NVA MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS WILL               
GIVE US A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE             
PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRIMED AND UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE                  
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLIP              
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE            
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY.                                          
I WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70              
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND WITH CLOUD COVER WE               
WILL NOT SEE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN                 
TOMORROW SO HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE EVEN MORE THAN TODAY SO WILL GO             
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY            
COOLER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                  
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT                
WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO               
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                     
SATURDAY.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL.  SO WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT             
BUT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES              
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL FORCE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY              
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY OVER            
THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.                            
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES             
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR.  THERE               
WILL BE ENOUGH MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP               
SKIES FROM BEING CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FROM                  
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  WILL UP MINS AND MAXES BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS GENERALLY WEAKEND LAST FEW HOURS BUT SOME            
NEW DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ON BACK EDGE BEFORE GETTING EAST OF              
YNG AND ERI LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND             
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. MORE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP              
OVER CENTRAL GRTLKS AND MIDWEST TODAY. NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING AND                
INTENSITY BUT THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL PRETTY MUCH FORCE ME TO             
INCLUDE STORMS IN TAFS AND MY BEST GUESS IS THIS EVENING INTO FIRST             
HALF OF TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN MOST TAF SITES. SOME              
STORMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL             
NOT KEEP THEM IN TAF ALL NIGHT LONG. MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY BY                    
DAYBREAK AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTENED UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A              
BREEZE TONIGHT TO KEEP VSBY FROM GOING TOO LOW.                                 
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY                                                           
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY                                                            
AVIATION...KOSARIK                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
845 PM MDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ARE INCREASING ACRS ERN WY IN               
RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE MOVG THRU WRN WY ATTM. BOTH 00Z NAM/RUC                  
APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED            
POPS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SWRN ZONES THRU 18Z TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE               
PARAMETERS RATHER WEAK FOR SVR STORMS. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO             
TEMP/WIND FCST.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU ACRS            
NERN WY AND SWRN SD/NWRN NEB AS SCT -TSRA/-SHRA SPREAD ACRS THE                 
AREA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JOHNSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1055 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                     
UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINT VALUES SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST PART OF              
THIS AREA TO REFLECT VALUES IN THE 12Z RUC MODEL OUTPUT.  IT IS                 
NOTED THAT EVEN THESE VALUES HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH IN SOME CASES.  THIS            
AREA IS AROUND 5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THIS YEAR TO DATE.                
HAVE USED THESE NEW VALUES TO AMEND THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER                   
PRODUCT AND ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES ON BOTH             
SIDES OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.  NEW PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                             
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                        
A SMALL AREA OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SW SD...AND IS CURRENTLY            
PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY IS PUSHING               
THROUGH JONES...LYMAN...AND BUFFALO COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT. SOME                
LINGERING WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH               
MID MORNING...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE A              
WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THAT               
LINE OF CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA AS CAA                  
CONTINUES ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. STRONGER UPPER WAVE                     
CURRENTLY SLIDING ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH            
EAST TODAY AND PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS                
WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.                
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE                
NEXT FEW DAYS AS H85 TEMPS HOVER IN THE TEENS. EXPECT BREEZY TO                 
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WELL...WITH A TIGHTENED SFC PRES                      
GRADIENT...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND 25-30KT. DO FEEL THAT WINDS               
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH MODELS INDICATING BETTER             
PRES GRADIENT TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER             
LEVELS. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO            
FRIDAY NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER WAVE IMPACTS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL               
BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE CWA...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT             
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES INCREASE FROM AROUND 0.6                  
INCHES THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE AN INCH BY LATE FRIDAY. LATEST NAM                
INDICATES A STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT ORIENTED TOWARD                
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS KEEPS IT                
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST SD. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE              
LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE MADE NO OTHER CHANGES                    
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.                                                      
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                           
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AGAIN THIS TIME AROUND. THE               
UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE                
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WITH NORTHWEST               
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE               
JUST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND EXITS TO THE                
EAST DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP GOING TO CATCH ANY                   
LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION                    
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES AFFECTING THE               
REGION FROM THEN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL GO             
DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO                 
TEMPERATURES WITH H85 TEMPS REMAINING IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN               
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS                  
MAINLY IN THE 50S.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 268 THROUGH 270.                   
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KEEFE/ALBRECHT/PARKIN                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
355 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BENDING                
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN               
SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ALL DAY AND MODEST               
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 40S TO LOWER 50S REMAIN ACROSS THIS               
REGION. THE LATEST RUC HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT AND CORRECT SHOWING             
THESE MIXED DEWPOINTS AND BREAKING OUT PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR               
NORTHWEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GFS INDICATES THE BATCH TO THE               
SOUTHWEST AS WELL...PERHAPS HAVING AN IMPACT INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND              
EVEN WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER IN THE EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS                 
WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANYWAY...WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS              
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE CAPES AND               
LOW SHEAR WITH HIGH BASES STILL SPELL A WIND GUST THREAT...AND A                
LOWER HAIL THREAT...AS IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. RIDGE HEIGHTS             
SHOULD DIP A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO REFORM FURTHER             
WEST...ALLOWING A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF STORMS             
LATE IN THE DAY. THICKNESS COOLING ALSO SHOULD ALLOW ABOUT 3 DEGREES            
COOLING FROM TODAY MOST AREAS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS                    
TEMPERATURE GRIDS.  MCQUEEN                                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UPWARD AS THURSDAY EVENING PROGRESSES                
WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN                  
CWA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD                    
RESULT IN MCS DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY THE                    
EVENING HRS. FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND COMPLEX OF STORMS               
SOUTHEAST WITH BEST CHC OF WETTING RAINS ACRS THE NORTHEAST                     
QUADRANT OF THE CWA. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER                 
HAIL EARLY THEN OUTFLOW WINDS LATER AS MCS MATURES. WILL BUMP UP                
POPS IN THE KCDS VCNTY TO NR 60 PERCENT.                                        
OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVG ON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                 
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FINALLY ARRIVING FOR FRI AND SAT. DID NOT                
GO AS COOL AS GFS/NAM WRF NUMBERS...WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LINGERING               
CLOUD COVER AND POST FRONTAL PRECIP. BEST PRECIP CHANCE TO SHIFT                
SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING.                               
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WHICH FEATURES SLOW WARM-UP                 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW POPS DURG THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT                
HRS LOOK FINE WITH POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY ROLLING IN FROM NEW                    
MEXICO.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        65  94  65  88 /  40  30  40  20                                  
TULIA         66  90  66  86 /  30  20  50  30                                  
PLAINVIEW     66  93  67  88 /  30  20  40  30                                  
LEVELLAND     66  94  66  90 /  30  20  20  30                                  
LUBBOCK       70  94  68  90 /  20  20  30  30                                  
BROWNFIELD    66  94  67  91 /  30  20  20  30                                  
CHILDRESS     70  92  69  89 /  20  20  60  30                                  
SPUR          68  93  70  89 /  10  10  30  30                                  
ASPERMONT     69  93  73  90 /  10  10  30  30                                  
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/21                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
820 PM MDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD            
ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE               
STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL UT...WITH 16C ANALYZED BY RUC ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN UT...WHILE 700MB TEMPS NEAR THE ID BORDER ARE AROUND 8C                
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN ONLY                     
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR EASTERN CWA. A FEW                   
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED EARLIER OVER THE UINTAS...HOWEVER DRIER            
AIR SPREADING INTO THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN A MARKED DECREASE IN               
CONVECTION AS WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE THERE IS SHIFTS EAST INTO CO.               
FURTHER WEST AN AREA OF HIGH BASED SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH                     
DEVELOPED NEAR SURFACE TROUGH EARLIER OVER EAST CENTRAL NV HAS                  
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST UT THIS EVENING. THUS FAR NO LIGHTNING STRIKES            
HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS CANT BE               
RULED OUT NEAR ANY VIRGA. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH                
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.                         
OTHERWISE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN              
THURSDAY...BEFORE SPREADING EAST ACROSS UT FRIDAY THROUGH THE                   
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH            
OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND...AND NO             
UPDATED ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AT KSLC             
AROUND 05Z TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY EARLY LAKE                  
BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY DUE TO PREVAILING NORTHWEST             
FLOW. SEE THE LATEST SLCTAFSLC FOR TIMING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...VERY LIMITED MOISTURE MANAGED TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON            
BUILDUPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN UT...WITH A HANDFUL OF                
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE UINTAS. ADDITIONAL BUILDUPS NOTED                    
SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST UT THIS EVENING. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ARE              
POSSIBLE WITH ANY VIRGA...OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS            
SUN SETS.                                                                       
OTHERWISE HAINES INDEX WILL RUN VERY HIGH THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN             
UTAH AS WELL...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF WELL DEVELOPED FIRE                
COLUMNS ON ACTIVE FIRES. VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH             
POOR RH RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO CRITICAL DAYS NOT             
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SEAMAN                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
455 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC40 AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THIS FCST               
PACKAGE.                                                                        
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24                 
HOURS.                                                                          
AT 08Z...THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS                   
LOCATED FROM SE ONTARIO...ACRS NRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO FAR SE                  
WISCONSIN.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BEING LOCATED              
FROM ABOUT DETROIT...TO GOSHEN...IN...TO KANKAKEE IL BY 18Z...THEN              
FROM NEAR CLEVELAND...TO CNTRL INDIANA...THEN INTO CNTRL ILLINOIS BY            
00Z THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE             
UNSTABLE AS EXHIBITED BY CURRENT MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG.             
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE REGION...A WEAK S/WV WILL APCH FROM THE             
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACRS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  ALTHOUGH            
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY                 
WEAK...THE S/WV AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SBCAPES NEAR LIMA               
OHIO ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTN) WILL BE ENOUGH TO             
KICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE              
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY END ACRS THE FAR NW CWFA THIS                
AFTN AS DRIER AIR FROM 925 MB TO 850 MB MOVES INTO THIS AREA.  DO               
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO DRY JUST YET...SO WILL LAYER POPS FROM            
20 PERCENT FAR NW TO 50 PERCENT SE.  THIS WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO               
FINE TUNE FCST.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE                
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE UPPER 80S ACRS THE SOUTH AND                     
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH.  ANOTHER COLD             
FRONT WILL APCH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE FCST            
AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THEN INTO THE SRN CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING.                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF            
THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHILE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN               
THE WAY OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.  WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20               
PERCENT NORTH TO 50 SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS...THEN JUST A 30                
PERCENT CHC IN THE FAR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY             
FILTER INTO THE REGION.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO              
MID 60S.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TIME                 
FRAME IS A DRY ONE...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY             
MORNING. THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL FOR FRIDAY               
AND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IT HAS KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN TO             
THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS JUST CREEPING SOME QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART             
OF OUR CWA. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE YET              
FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. SO WITH A CHANCE               
THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GOING ON INTO FRIDAY                
MORNING...HAVE PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE               
CWA WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL.                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE            
GFS IS SHOWING A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN AND CANADA TO THE               
NORTH NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW TO HAVE NO             
AFFECT ON THE CWA. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL                
SHORTWAVE THAT GFS IS SHOWING TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE DRY FOR OUR                  
CWA...SO LEFT THIS TIME FRAME DRY. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE                 
PATTERN FOR THIS COMING WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR EACH AFTERNOON            
ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR. SO NO BIG RANGES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY            
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECASTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST INTO SE             
WISCONSIN...THEN INTO ERN IOWA AT 05Z.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS               
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.                                           
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING LOW LVL AC/STRATOCUMULUS             
ACRS NRN INDIANA.  THESE CLOUDS WERE BEING SUSTAINED BY A MOIST LOW             
LVL WAA FLOW PATTERN.  SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE                 
LOCATED EAST OF KFWA...AND THESE SHOULD STAY EAST OF KFWA THROUGH               
THE NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF                       
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TODAY.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE               
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KSBN BY 16Z.  THUS...HAVE                   
REMOVED CHC/S OF THUNDERSTORMS HERE AS IT LOOKS TO BE A SLIM CHC                
ATTM.  AS FOR KFWA...FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NEAR 22Z...SO HAVE                 
MAINTAINED A VCTS IN THE TAF.                                                   
FOR THURSDAY EVENING...ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL               
REMAIN ACRS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION.              
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APCH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER 06Z             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...BML                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
150 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST INTO SE             
WISCONSIN...THEN INTO ERN IOWA AT 05Z.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS               
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.                                           
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING LOW LVL AC/STRATOCUMULUS             
ACRS NRN INDIANA.  THESE CLOUDS WERE BEING SUSTAINED BY A MOIST LOW             
LVL WAA FLOW PATTERN.  SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE                 
LOCATED EAST OF KFWA...AND THESE SHOULD STAY EAST OF KFWA THROUGH               
THE NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF                       
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TODAY.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE               
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KSBN BY 16Z.  THUS...HAVE                   
REMOVED CHC/S OF THUNDERSTORMS HERE AS IT LOOKS TO BE A SLIM CHC                
ATTM.  AS FOR KFWA...FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NEAR 22Z...SO HAVE                 
MAINTAINED A VCTS IN THE TAF.                                                   
FOR THURSDAY EVENING...ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL               
REMAIN ACRS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION.              
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APCH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER 06Z             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS              
IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE               
AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND SURROUNDING AREAS HAS RECOVERED               
QUITE WELL FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WERE NEAR 90            
JUST UPSTREAM AND DEW POINTS 70 TO 75. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING YIELDED            
CAPE OF OVER 5200 J/KG...AND 17Z LAPS CAPE NOT FAR BEHIND AT                    
4000-4500. HOWEVER...GIVEN EARLIER CANOPY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL                 
CLOUDS AND EARLIER CONVECTION...EXPECT INITIATION TIME TO BE                    
SOMEWHAT LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ACARS SOUNDING FROM BMI                   
INDICATED A SMALL CAP JUST BELOW 800 MB...ALSO SUGGESTING A LATER               
INITIATION TIME. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A CAP. A WELL              
DEFINED VORT MAX ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WAS NEAR DSM AT 18Z...AND             
SHOULD REACH NW INDIANA/FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY 04Z/MIDNIGHT EDT.              
EXPECT CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.                  
ONGOING FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS             
AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO APPEARS ON TRACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE               
WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE            
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...BY AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE                
AIRMASS TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHTER WIND             
FIELD...POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH SLOWER MOVING                  
STORMS WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY WITH                       
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING               
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT FRIDAY DRY THIS PACKAGE AS NCEP            
MODELS SHOWING MIXED SOLUTIONS. MAIN FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS THE                 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SW CONUS. THE               
GFS AND ECMWF HAS SHOWN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE STRENGTH AND                 
PROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS            
WAS SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE            
TROF AXIS SHIFTED WEST A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE                   
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WERE 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE BETWEEN THE GFS.               
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE ANALOGS SHOWED A PATTERN                
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY...SO WITH ALL CONSIDERED...KEPT THE FORECAST               
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE             
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM....SKIPPER                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
120 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN             
THROUGH IA AND BACK INTO NE/KS WHILE A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED UP                 
NORTH OF BOTH SBN AND FWA. MAIN FEATURE TO KEY ON EXPECTED TO BE MID            
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS VORT MAX OVER EASTERN IA WITH SPEED MAX MOVING UP                
INTO NORTHERN IL. EXPECT THIS TO INTERACT WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE               
BOUNDARIES LAID OUT OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A VERY UNSTABLE                
AIRMASS...TO TRIGGER TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE              
EVENING HOURS AND IMPACT BOTH TAF SITES. WILL INTRODUCE AS VCTS LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BRINGING PREVAILING -SHRA TO BOTH SITES...BUT             
STILL LEAVING CIGS VFR. EXACT TIMING STILL IN QUESTION BUT WILL                 
BRING IN A 1 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO INDICATE TREND EXPECTED.                
CANNOT RULE OUT ADDL MCS CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL WAIT FOR             
THIS TO UNFOLD AND LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
N-S ELEVATED CONVN ALG ERN EDGE OF PLAINS EML PLUME THIS AM FM WRN              
LWR MI DOWN INTO CNTRL IN. DOUBT THIS WILL POSE MUCH OF A SHRT TERM             
PROB AND MORE CONCERNED W/UPSTREAM DVLPMNT TAKING PLACE FM SE IA                
INTO NRN IL ATTM. THESE STORMS CONT TO UNDERGO ORGANIZATION AND                 
ASSUMING CONV COLD POOL FORMS SUFFICIENTLY...THEN A MORE COHERENT               
SVR THREAT IN FORM OF HAIL/WIND SHLD MATERIALIZE YET BFR DAYBREAK.              
OTHERWISE...WARM FRONTAL BNDRY CONTS TO MIX NWD AND NOW ARCHING FM              
CNTRL IL INTO SW OH. DOES NOT APPEAR MORNING CONV DEBRIS WILL POSE              
PROBLEMS IN TERMS OF ATTAINING ROBUST AFTN DESTABILIZATION W/ML                 
CAPES APCHG 3K J/KG AND TREMENDOUS DEEP LYR SHEAR IN ASSOCN/W MCV               
AND MID LVL JET STREAK PROGRESSING OUT OF NEB. SUSPECT WKNG MCS OVR             
ERN NEB WILL REDEVELOP BY MID AM OVR IA AND THEN QUICKLY GO UPSCALE             
AS IT MOVES INTO NRN IL BY EARLY AFTN. DEGREE OF MSTR POOLING                   
UNDERNEATH STEEP EML AND PROGGED INTENSITY OF MID LVL SPEED MAX                 
SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD HIGH END WIND EVENT POSSIBLE W/MATURE SQUALL               
LINE AND VRY LARGE HAIL/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT W/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.             
SVR THREAT WILL CONT WELL INTO THIS EVENING ALG QUASI-STATIONARY                
BNDRY OR COMPOSITE BNDRY MODULATED BY MCS INDUCED OUTFLW                        
W/BACKBUILDING DVLPMNT XPCD ALG SW FLANK OF MCS.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WITH A COLD FRONT BEING IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO OCCUR. SOUNDINGS ARE                
SHOWING AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND YET. THE STORM PREDICTION                
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH              
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. CAPE VALUES UP TO            
1500 J/KG...LI VALUES TO -4...SOME MODERATE LAPSE RATES ALSO. THE               
FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN              
SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. GFS IS               
SHOWING QPF/MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS MOVING IT SOUTHWARD            
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN FURTHER AWAY ON FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM IS             
NOT SHOWING THAT MUCH QPF ON THURSDAY BUT SHOWS QPF FOR THURSDAY                
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND DOESN'T SHOW THE HIGH SHOWING ITS INFLUENCE AND            
BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR TIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM ALSO APPEARS TO            
KEEP THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS DOES. FOR EXAMPLE AT 12Z              
FRIDAY THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT CUTTING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA                 
WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS IT AROUND SOUTHERN INDIANA. NO CHANGES WERE               
ALSO MADE TO SATURDAY TO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN              
TO BE OVER THE AREA FOR THEN WITH A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE              
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING                
THIS SHORTWAVE TO BE DRY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...JAL/HOLSTEN                                               
LONG TERM....LOTHAMER                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
520 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
MAIN CONCERN IS ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT                 
PASSAGE.                                                                        
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS             
THE CONUS. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES WAS UNDERCUTTING A            
RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE A                     
SHORTWAVE WAS DIGGING INTO ONTARIO AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS                  
SYSTEM WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THIS             
MORNING. CANADIAN RADAR JUST NORTH OF THUNDER BAY SHOWS SHRA                    
GENERALLY DISSIPATING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING.       
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT INDICATING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH          
NRN COUNTIES BY 12Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND WILL PASS THROUGH KMNM            
BY 18Z. GIVEN DISSIPATION OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND              
UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD WILL             
TRIM BACK SHRA TO ISOLD OVER THE NRN COUNTIES. LATE MORNING TIMING              
OF FRONT FOR SRN COUNTIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP            
THERE (CAPES RISE TO OVER 400 J/KG ON KMNM NAM BUFR SNDG). THUS WILL            
CONTINUE MENTION OF SCT SHRA/ISOLD TS FOR COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE               
MI. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF            
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN                
PARTLY SUNNY. MIDDAY 8H TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5C OVER THE NW                
PORTION OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS 10-11C OVER THE SE. MIXING THESE TEMPS            
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SFC WILL EQUATE TO HIGHS OF LOW 60S NW AND             
LOW TO MID 70S FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE MI.                             
CLEARING SKIES...WITH SFC RDG AND ASSOC PREC WATER AXIS OF AROUND .5            
WILL BUILD OVER UPR MI TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL                   
COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE KEPT WITH GOING FCST FOLLOWING COOLER GFS COOP         
MOS WHICH HAS MINS REACHING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL              
COLD SPOTS.                                                                     
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES LINGERING ACROSS             
THE UPPER LAKES. 00Z NAM AND GFS TRY TO BRING IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE            
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROF AND PUSH MLCAPES TO 200-400J/KG ALONG THE              
WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH STILL NO DISCERNABLE SHORTWAVE TRIGGER AND             
VERY DRY MID-LVLS NOTED ON 06Z NAM SNDGS WILL STAY WITH DRY FCST FOR            
NOW.                                                                            
ON SAT...MODELS DO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING IN NW FLOW                  
TOWARD EVENING. UKMET/GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE A BIT QUICKER                 
TIMING THAN THE NAM. GIVEN THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH                 
TIMING AND THE FACT THAT THE NAM BUFR SNDGS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER              
AT LEAST DURING THE DAY...WILL KEEP WITH GOING DRY FCST. THIS WILL              
NEED TO BE EXAMINED FURTHER BY DAY SHIFT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF             
CONTINUING MODEL TRENDS WOULD WARRANT CHC POPS FOR THE WRN HALF                 
COUNTIES LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
318 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24              
HOURS. OVERALL UPPER PATTERN SHOWS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR                
HUDSON BAY AREA...WHILE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAKER               
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AT THIS TIME. ALSO EMBEDDED IN THIS             
FLOW ARE MCV TYPE CIRCULATIONS THAT ARE THE RESULT OF ONGOING                   
CONVECTION. ONE OF THESE MCV CIRCULATIONS IS MOVING ALONG THE IOWA              
MISSOURI BORDER AT THIS TIME...AND ANOTHER IS NOTED IN EAST CENTRAL             
KANSAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO THIS MORNING...WE            
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG JET MAX OVER NORTHERN              
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN                    
NEBRASKA. WRF/NAM MODEL HAS THIS UPPER JET INCREASING TO AROUND 100             
KTS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. NORTHERN             
MISSOURI WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS JET THIS                        
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THUS             
WILL PULL CATEGORICAL POPS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH FOR THE                
MORNING HOURS...IN AREA WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES.               
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MCS COMPLEX THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE                   
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE             
UPSWING ONCE AGAIN AFTER DIMINISHING SOME THIS MORNING. WRF/NAM                 
MODEL IS SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI               
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE COLD POOL EFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE               
REMAINING AFTER MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIES DOWN A BIT.                  
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD BE RUNNING FROM              
JUST SOUTH OF ST LOUIS...INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND HEAVIER RAIN               
SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL PULL               
CATEGORICAL POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP THEM IN LINE            
WITH THIS EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.                                            
ALL THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS             
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORT              
WAVE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON               
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RETURN DRIER WEATHER TO NORTHERN MISSOURI.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND                   
PRECIPITATION.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE STAYED UNSEASONABLY                 
WARM...WITH ONLY THE RAIN COOLING OFF SOME AREA. RAIN SHOULD DROP               
TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT SOME POINT THIS                    
MORNING...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY              
STAYING PRETTY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BUT RAIN MOVING INTO             
THOSE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP ANY BIG WARM UP FROM                 
OCCURRING. SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGES AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR               
TODAY.                                                                          
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
541 PM CDT WED...                                                               
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEGUN IN THE VICINITY OF CONCORDIA KS                 
WHERE 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK             
LOW CENTER. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE             
MAXIMIZED ALONG A GENERAL SW-NE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS               
DRAPED FROM FAR NRN MO INTO SW KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY                    
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF MUCH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE                    
REGIONWIDE...NOTED BY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH HAS LOCALLY BEGUN TO             
CONGEAL AND TOWER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.                                          
12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING AND RUC/NAM-WRF PROGS SHOW THAT VERY STEEP MID              
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION BENEATH A NARROW                
PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAKING NNE FROM PERSISTENT                      
CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED            
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS               
TIME.                                                                           
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN KS/NRN MO WILL DECOUPLE                    
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR AIDED BY AN INCREASING             
NOCTURNAL JET...ALONG WITH AMBIENT INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED LOW-MID            
LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD ALLOW CURRENTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO                  
STEADILY GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL                   
TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BACK BUILD...HOWEVER GENEROUS DCAPE VALUES               
AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE AND                 
FORWARD PROPAGATION...BRINGING AN EXPECTED MCS INTO THE AREA AROUND             
MIDNIGHT. THINK THE NAM-WRF HAS GENERAL HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE                    
EVOLUTION...BUT LIKELY MUCH TOO SLOW ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION.               
ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE MATURITY OF THE MCS...WITH                 
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR             
LARGE HAIL GIVEN ENHANCED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AREA OF CONCERN AT              
THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE                 
KANSAS CITY METRO TO TRENTON.                                                   
AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE BEST                
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR WRN MO/ERN KS IN                 
QUITE SOME TIME.                                                                
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
325 PM...                                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE TIED TO A WEAK FRONT                    
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST IA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER             
OF MO THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS. THE KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED            
LITTLE OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE AREA OF MOST               
IMPORTANCE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE                         
IA/NORTHWEST MO PORTION OF THE FRONT IS PASSING BY...SO THE FRONT               
WILL STALL AS IT CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MO. PLENTY OF CU HAS FORMED              
ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING MUCH MORE DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE             
FIELD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKENING ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPECT            
CONVECTION TO FORM SOON FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS.                         
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT            
OF CO THIS EVENING AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS KS. NAM-WRF IS FURTHER              
NORTH THAN THE GFS WHILE THE CANADIAN SHOWS TWO CENTERS BY 12Z                  
THURSDAY WHILE THE UKMET IS AT ABOUT THE SAME LATITUDE BUT A BIT                
FASTER. FAVOR THE NAM/UKMET SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INITIATING THIS            
EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS FRONT AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST INTO               
NORTHWEST MO LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE                   
RESULTING COLD POOLS WILL SHIFT THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SOUTH WITH                  
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE KC METRO BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE             
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER KS ON THURSDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME                     
BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION EVEN IF THE MCS MOVES AWAY FROM THE CWA              
IN THE MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY OVER            
A LARGE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES DUE TO              
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED STORMS. AM                    
STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT AND MORE OF A HYDRO            
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH A SLOW             
MOVING BOUNDARY AND STRONG SHORTWAVE. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RATHER                
WEAK                                                                            
WITH 850MB WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT FAVORING                  
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.                        
MJ                                                                              
UPPER LVL TROUGH LIFTS NE OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST             
AREA TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT             
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN              
MISSOURI THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY            
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT               
LAKES BUILDS INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS.                                  
WEBBER                                                                          
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT FOR THE              
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO             
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA WHILE UPPER RIDGING SETS UP              
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA                  
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING               
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO             
THE AREA DURING THE DAYS 4 TO 7 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT REMAINS                  
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT                       
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ONE SUCH POSSIBLE                      
DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SEASONABLY                
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.            
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
300 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRI NGT)...                                                
WHAT LOOKED LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR MCS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS            
TURNED INTO ANYTHING BUT.  LARGE SCALE COMPLEX RAKING NORTHERN OH IS            
GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO WV/PA WITH BACK-BUILDING INTO NW               
OH.  ADDNL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS                    
PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC.  CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF            
MAIN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN                 
PORTIONS OF FA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  EVOLUTION FROM THERE IS              
MURKY...AS IS ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.                                
00Z MODELS ALL HAD HARD TIME WITH INITIALIZATION OF QPF FIELDS.  GFS            
INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH COMPLEX AND AS A RESULT...IS TOO FAR             
NORTH WITH LOCATION BY 12Z.  RUC ALSO DID POOR JOB WITH                         
INITIALIZATION BUT HAS SO FAR CAUGHT ONTO TREND OF DROPPING IT                  
SOUTHEAST THRU MORNING.  LOCAL AND OPERATIONAL WRF ALSO DID NOT PICK            
UP ON NORTHERN OH CONVECTION BUT DID INITIALLY SEE DEVELOPMENT                  
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS EXPLODE CONVECTION              
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO FA BTWN 10-12Z.  IN REALITY...WHAT LITTLE                 
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED HAS LONG SINCE WEAKENED.  HAVING SAID ALL                  
THAT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLN IS EXTREMELY LOW FOR THE FIRST 6            
HRS AS TO WHETHER ANY ADDNL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.                
WRF BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT              
INTO FA TODAY.  THIS IS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN MODELS WERE             
INDICATING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE WOULD BE IN PLACE.  H8 LLJ HAS ALSO              
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE...WITH MAIN CORE BEING SHOWN BY RUC ACROSS                
SEPA RATHER THAN UPSTATE NY AS INDICATED WITH PREVIOUS 00Z RUN.                 
WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST POSSIBLE MINUTE BEFORE ISSUANCE TO SEE WHETHER             
ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.  GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HIGHEST              
POPS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THEN TAPERING TO LO CHC POPS                 
ACROSS NORTH.                                                                   
SCTD STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT                 
ANYWHERE.  00Z WRF HINTING AT PRE-FRONTAL TROF TO OUR NORTH BY EARLY            
EVENING WITH CONVECTION SPREADING AHEAD OF IT.  DRYING ALOFT WILL               
WORK IN...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE.  MODEL DEWPTS MAY BE                
SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT STILL THINK MID-UPPER 60S REASONABLE.  THIS             
WOULD YIELD CAPES ON ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LI/S ARND -5C.                 
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LOW WET-BULB ZEROES FVRBL FOR DAMAGING WIND             
GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.                               
AS IF IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WEREN/T BAD ENOUGH...MODELS DIVERGE                  
RAPIDLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.  GFS STILL FASTER WITH                  
MOVEMENT OF FRONT...BUT STALLS IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  WITH THIS              
SCENARIO...DEVELOPING WAVE THAT RIDES UP FRI NIGHT WOULD DUMP HEAVY             
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM 00-12Z SAT...WITH GFS                   
INDICATING 3.00+ INCHES ACROSS CATSKILLS.                                       
OPERATIONAL WRF SAGS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH LIGHTER QPF IN                 
THESE AREAS.  HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BTWN GFS/WRF.  00Z WRF                
ALSO SHOWING SPURIOUS HEAVY PCPN BAND TO NORTHWEST OF SFC FRONT 00Z             
SATURDAY IN REGION OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.  NOT SURE IF THIS IS A              
RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OR IF FEATURE MAY BE REAL...BUT WOULD             
TEND TO DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW.  IF GFS VERIFIES...EXTREMELY WET                 
PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASED              
FLOODING THREAT FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  -PB             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (22/06Z TO 23/06Z)...                                                 
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY              
THIS MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR... WITH ISOLATED            
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.             
MOST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THIS AFTERNOON... HOWEVER EXPECT            
SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER 16Z AND WILL MENTION A CB IN THE CLD GROUP            
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OR TWO TAF SITES WILL BE HIT BY A             
STRAY STORM.  MSE                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG RANGE (SAT - WED)...                                                      
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR ENTIRE EXTENDED. BOUNDARY REMAINS             
OVER SRN PTN OF CWA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF REGION THROUGH MONDAY.              
POP GRADIENT THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AREAS OVER              
SRN PTN OF CWA POSSIBLY RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM                     
CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY, BOUNDARY MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR AREA             
TO RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR FOLLOWED BY FROPA ON WEDNESDAY.  RRM                   
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
142 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                          
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARMFRONT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST               
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTH                 
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN IOWA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO                
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SETTLING ALONG THE OHIO                    
RIVER BY 06Z FRIDAY. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS DEPICT LARGE              
MCC OVER NORTHEAST OHIO MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY              
SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE               
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA AND               
MOVE EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE TAFS.              
THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS IN.                    
HANDLED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON BY USING CB WORDING. THEN                   
ADDED TEMPO FOR TIME PERIOD WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO              
BE MORE NUMEROUS DUE TO PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. FELT PRECIPITATION               
WOULD WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES KCVG AND KLUK, THUS NO                      
MENTION. HIGH DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR                  
FOG TO FORM VICINITY KLUK A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. HAYDU                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1156 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 532.                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 1050 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                   
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 530.                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 930 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW S/W TO TRACK ACRS SRN GRTLKS OVERNIGHT.                  
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHD OF THIS FEATURE ACRS NRN IN/NW                 
OH/SRN MI WHERE CAPES ARE BTWN 3500-4000 J/KG. ILN 00Z SOUNDING                 
SHOWS 50MB AVG CAPE AROUND 2600 J/KG BUT A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE.              
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING THIS CAP HAS INHIBITED TSTM                  
DEVELOPMENT. AS STORMS ACRS NRN INDIANA AND NRN OH WORK EAST AND                
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BUILD SWD INTO ILN/S              
FA. HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST RUC SOLN AND HAVE SLOWED TSTMS TIMING...               
TAKING STORMS INTO CNTRL FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SRN OH LATE                 
TNGT. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS ACRS THE NW WITH STORMS ACRS                
NRN IN SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD.                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 756 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                  
IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION                
RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. S/W OVER MID                 
MS VLY TO TRACK EWD ACRS SRN GRTLKS THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTBY               
IN PLACE WITH 18Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATING A CAPE OF 2200 J/KG.                  
AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH UPR DIV TO WORK INTO NW OH LATE             
THIS AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CAPE WL LEAD TO THE                
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SPREAD E ACRS FA WITH              
BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE N. DELTA THETA E DIFFERENCE VALUES APPROACHING           
20 DEGS INTO THIS EVENING WITH WET BULB ZERO ABOVE 12K FEET. EXPECT             
DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.                            
EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TNGT IN THE WAKE OF THIS              
INITIAL S/W. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LOOKS LKLY ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL              
TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH AFTN HEATING WITH CAPE VALUES OF                 
2500-3000 J/KG. AN AXIS OF LO LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE NW DURG                
THE AFTN SHUD FOCUS STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH LKLY POPS ACRS THE NW                
TO CHC SE. HAVE EXPANDED THESE LKLY POPS SE WITH STORMS EXPECTED                
TO OVERSPREAD ENTIRE FA THU NIGHT.                                              
TEMP WISE...HAVE GENERALLY GONE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUID                   
THRU THE PERIOD.                                                                
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS. THUS AT THE BEGINNING            
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST SOUTH OF             
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND            
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE                    
SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.                                     
THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING                 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO             
THE NORTHERN ZONES. INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY AND REMAINS            
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH WEAKENING            
WITH TIME. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF I-71.                                             
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGHOUT.                
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
140 AM EDT THU JUN 221 2006                                                     
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
LARGE MCS ACROSS AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING BUT SCT TSTMS STILL BUILDING              
BACK TO W. WILL GRADUALLY END PCPN FROM W TO E BY ARND 12Z. SHOULD              
BE A BREAK THEN LATER THIS MORNING. FRONT JUST N OF AREA TOMORROW               
EVENING EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON              
AND LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AT LEAT OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE            
AREA WITH WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM UPDATE...                                                           
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH.  ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS BASED             
ON RECENT TRENDS.  WESTERN OH COUNTIES RECOVER AS SUN BREAKS OUT.               
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...GOING CATEGORICAL                
WITH WATCH BOX.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL                  
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST.  DEW POINTS WERE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER            
60S IN THE EAST AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN                  
WESTERN OHIO.  LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST WITH THE               
CONVECTION ALLOWING CEILINGS TO THIN OUT AND ALLOW SOME SUN DURING              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE                 
ATMOSPHERE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER              
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO            
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RUC MODEL              
INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN               
2000 AND 3500 J/KG OVER WESTERN OHIO AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER                  
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.  CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND IT WILL LIKELY                
DIVE INTO THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER THE AREA.  MODERATE RISK            
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO INCLUDE THE REST             
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.                                                   
LARGE AREA OF NVA MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS WILL               
GIVE US A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE             
PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRIMED AND UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE                  
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLIP              
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE            
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY.                                          
I WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70              
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND WITH CLOUD COVER WE               
WILL NOT SEE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN                 
TOMORROW SO HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE EVEN MORE THAN TODAY SO WILL GO             
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY            
COOLER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                  
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT                
WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO               
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                     
SATURDAY.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL.  SO WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT             
BUT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES              
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL FORCE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY              
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY OVER            
THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.                            
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES             
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR.  THERE               
WILL BE ENOUGH MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP               
SKIES FROM BEING CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FROM                  
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  WILL UP MINS AND MAXES BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY                                                            
AVIATION...WCR                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
415 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                     
WHAT TO DO WITH THE MCS? THE GFS SEEMS THE FARTHEST FROM REALITY                
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP RIDING INTO NEW YORK STATE. BOTH THE RUC            
AND THE NAM ARE TOO SLOW, BUT AT LEAST THEY DO SHOW A SOUTHEAST                 
DRIFT. WE'LL RUN WITH THE NAM THIS MORNING, BUT BASED OFF SAT PIX               
TRENDS SPEED THINGS UP BY ABOUT THREE HOURS. WITH THE SYSTEM RUNNING            
INTO STABLE AIR, WHATEVER MAKES IT OVER THE CWA WILL BE IN A                    
WEAKENED FORM. IR IMAGES ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME WARMING CLOUD                
TOPS. LIGHTNING IS ALSO STARTING TO WANE.                                       
THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS SHOULD EFFECT US MORE THIS             
MORNING THAN THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL SHOW SOME DECREASING CLOUD TRENDS            
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BECAUSE OF THIS. THE MORNING MCS               
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE HAD FULL               
SUN TODAY, MID 90S WOULD BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE WARMEST LOCALES.              
ALTHOUGH, MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, OUR BELIEF IS THAT               
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDINESS AROUND TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES. IT               
WILL STILL BE HOT AND SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT                  
TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE MID 90S, HEAT INDICES              
WILL AS DEWPOINTS INCH TOWARD 70 DEGREES.                                       
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THE LAST 24 HOURS COMBINED WITH THIS              
AFTERNOON'S HEAT, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE CAPE/LI VALUES.              
THEY LOOK MORE LEGITIMATE THAN IN THE RECENT PAST WITH FORECAST                 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE NAM, AS OF LATE, HAS BEEN PRODUCING TOO             
MUCH CAPE DUE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WERE TOO HIGH. EVEN THE GFS             
SOUNDINGS ARE IMPRESSIVE. WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE TROF IN THE                   
VICINITY OR EVEN A BOUNDARY STEMMING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION, THE               
SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.                                  
THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE IN THE             
POCONOS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CAPES AND LI'S ARE ONCE AGAIN                     
INDICATING A RIPE ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT'S MORE OF A                 
CONCERN IS THE PW'S THAT ARE BEING FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND                
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TOPS OUT AROUND 2.25", WHILE THE NAM                 
CLIMBS UP TO 2.60". WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE, LOADS OF INSTABILITY,               
AND WITH A COLD FRONT INVOF, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS FLASH              
FLOODING IS A CONCERN. THE SPC HAS ONCE AGAIN PUT THE REGION IN                 
SLIGHT RISK (PER SWODY2). AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS OUR                  
CONCERNS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
OVERALL THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT              
LOOKS TO STALL OVER OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS THE                   
PRIMARY CAUSE OF CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT             
WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE REGION CONTINUING THE ALREADY WET                 
CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE CWA COULD CAUSE                
SOME LOCATIONS TO GET CLOSE TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN (THIS IS IN             
ADDITION TO WHAT FALLS TODAY AND FRIDAY). IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WET            
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.              
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE               
YEAR. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE ESF.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BY 3:00 AM, SOME MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS HAD BEGUN TO DRIFT                   
OVERHEAD.  THE CLOUDS WERE IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX                   
LOCATED IN NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  THE LEADING EDGE            
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVED             
INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.                 
MEANWHILE, TSTMS WERE REGENERATING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COMPLEX              
AS MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                        
WE WE'RE NOT TERRIBLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE               
PRECIP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  IT APPEARS AS THOUGH               
THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX.           
THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING              
WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE              
RESULTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE, WE'VE MENTIONED SOME               
CUMULONIMBUS FOR RDG AND ABE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WE'VE LEFT             
THE MENTION OUT OF OUR REMAINING SIX TAF SITES FOR THE TIME BEING,              
WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR TODAY ON AND NEAR THE COASTAL              
PLAIN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OUR                  
MARINE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE                    
WEEKEND.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,                 
PERHAPS GETTING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA (5 FEET) ON                  
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO                                                            
LONG TERM...MEOLA                                                               
AVIATION...IOVINO                                                               
MARINE...IOVINO                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
920 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.PUBLIC...                                                                      
13Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ASSOCIATED             
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH JUST A FEW KINKS IN THE FLOW RELATED              
TO PROPAGATING MCS CLUSTERS ACROSS PA AND ANOTHER OVER IL. SOUTHEAST            
CONUS UNDER CONTROL OF LARGE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL ONCE               
AGAIN PROVIDE THE AREA WITH VERY WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.            
STILL EXPECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                
COAST. A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR AL & GA ZONES MAY                
ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK.                                         
MEAN 1000-700 MB FLOW REMAINS A WEAK E-NE FLOW OR A TYPE 2 REGIME.              
CURRENT POPS AROUND 20% ARE JUSTIFIED WITH THIS REGIME...SIMILAR TO             
WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODIFIED 12Z KTLH               
SOUNDING IS SHOWING A BIT BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR THIS                 
AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. MODIFYING TO ACCOUNT FOR                
FORECAST CONDITIONS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON YIELDS BETWEEN 2000-2500              
J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE...AN LI OF AROUND -6...AND A PW OF AROUND            
1.7 INCHES (NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). TWO FOCUSING                    
MECHANISMS WILL BE THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND A VERY              
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STILL ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA (AGAIN               
VERY SIMILAR TO SURFACE FEATURES FROM YESTERDAY). AT THIS POINT IN              
TIME WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING               
POPS AS UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL HAVE SOME SUPPRESSING                
EFFECTS ON THE DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO GET GOING THIS            
AFTERNOON WILL CERTAINLY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY                  
RAINS...AND WITH THE WEAK FLOW MAY BE RATHER SLOW MOVERS.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF             
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. WINDS STARING OUT GENERALLY 5 TO            
10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE INTO THE                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER                        
MONTHS...SOME ENHANCEMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE                 
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WITHIN ABOUT 10 MILES OF THE COAST.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AFTER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT TLH AND VLD THIS                      
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAIN               
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THEIR MENTION IN OUR TAFS. BRIEF                 
IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO 25                  
KT...WILL OCCUR IN THESE STORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND                        
VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP                                 
HOT AND FAIRLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT            
EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A FEW               
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE            
EXPECTED. OVER THE WEEKEND...LOOK FOR INCREASING MOISTURE TO RETURN             
TO THE REGION WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                             
REST OF DISCUSSION...BAM                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
837 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
...ANOTHER ACTIVE SVR WX DAY FROM LT MORNING INTO THIS AFTN ACRS                
MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...                                  
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ANOTHER COMPLEX MESOSCALE SITUATION DVLPG THIS AM W/UPSCALE TRENDS              
NOTED IN SMALL BUT SVR FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NOW INTO WRN IL.                 
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED W/STEEP MID            
LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME STILL IN PLACE ACRS MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES OVERTOP            
SEASONABLY MOIST BNDRY LYR. QUASI-STATIONARY FNTL BNDRY EXTENDS FM              
CNTRL LK HURON BACK SW INTO WK SFC FNTL WAVE ANALYZED OVR NE MO AS A            
REFLECTION OF ROBUST MCV ACRS NE KS SPAWNED FM LAST NIGHTS CONVN.               
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF IL ACTIVITY WILL HEAT RAPIDLY THIS MORNING                
UNDERNEATH THIN CIRRUS SHIELD AND WARM START. GIVEN WELL DVLPD COLD             
POOL IN PLACE AND DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR XPC THIS CLUSTER WILL             
CONT TO INTENSIFY AS IT GRAVITATES EWD ACRS THE REMAINDER OF IL                 
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS XPC ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE                       
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACRS IN/OH PORTIONS OF CWA BY LT MORNING INTO            
MID AFTN. WILL UPDATE RELEVANT PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MICHIGAN INTO NRN ILLINOIS THIS             
MORNING...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE AIR             
MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE.  LOOKING TO THE                 
WEST...WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A MCS OVER ERN             
IOWA.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING EAST INTO WRN ILLINOIS.  THIS MCS WAS            
ASSOCD WITH A MCV WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACRS THE REGION                 
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  IT APPEARS THAT THE MCS HAS CAUSED A WEAK SFC             
LOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN IOWA ON THE SOUTH END OF THE COLD FRONT.  AM            
CONCERNED THAT THE FORMATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL SLOW THE COLD FRONT            
MORE THAN CURRENT RUC AND NAM-WRF ARE INDICATING.  WITH THAT                    
SAID...WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO SHOWER WITH A CB MENTION AT KSBN.  THE            
FRONT SHOULD PASS KSBN BY MID AFTERNOON...DWINDLING THE THREAT FOR              
PCPN THERE.  FOR KFWA...THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR                         
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THUS WILL EMPLOY A TEMPO TSRA BETWEEN 18Z             
AND 22Z...THE BEST TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR.                                      
FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTH.             
BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KFWA BY THIS                  
TIME...SO WILL GO DRY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SRN               
GREAT LAKES TOWARD MORNING.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH            
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH EXPECTED AT KSBN TOWARD MORNING.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC40 AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THIS FCST               
PACKAGE.                                                                        
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24                 
HOURS.                                                                          
AT 08Z...THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS                   
LOCATED FROM SE ONTARIO...ACRS NRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO FAR SE                  
WISCONSIN.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BEING LOCATED              
FROM ABOUT DETROIT...TO GOSHEN...IN...TO KANKAKEE IL BY 18Z...THEN              
FROM NEAR CLEVELAND...TO CNTRL INDIANA...THEN INTO CNTRL ILLINOIS BY            
00Z THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE             
UNSTABLE AS EXHIBITED BY CURRENT MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG.             
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE REGION...A WEAK S/WV WILL APCH FROM THE             
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACRS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  ALTHOUGH            
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY                 
WEAK...THE S/WV AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SBCAPES NEAR LIMA               
OHIO ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTN) WILL BE ENOUGH TO             
KICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE              
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY END ACRS THE FAR NW CWFA THIS                
AFTN AS DRIER AIR FROM 925 MB TO 850 MB MOVES INTO THIS AREA.  DO               
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO DRY JUST YET...SO WILL LAYER POPS FROM            
20 PERCENT FAR NW TO 50 PERCENT SE.  THIS WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO               
FINE TUNE FCST.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE                
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE UPPER 80S ACRS THE SOUTH AND                     
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH.  ANOTHER COLD             
FRONT WILL APCH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE FCST            
AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THEN INTO THE SRN CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING.                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF            
THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHILE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN               
THE WAY OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.  WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20               
PERCENT NORTH TO 50 SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS...THEN JUST A 30                
PERCENT CHC IN THE FAR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY             
FILTER INTO THE REGION.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO              
MID 60S.                                                                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TIME                 
FRAME IS A DRY ONE...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY             
MORNING. THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL FOR FRIDAY               
AND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IT HAS KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN TO             
THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS JUST CREEPING SOME QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART             
OF OUR CWA. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE YET              
FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. SO WITH A CHANCE               
THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GOING ON INTO FRIDAY                
MORNING...HAVE PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE               
CWA WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL.                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE            
GFS IS SHOWING A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN AND CANADA TO THE               
NORTH NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW TO HAVE NO             
AFFECT ON THE CWA. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL                
SHORTWAVE THAT GFS IS SHOWING TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE DRY FOR OUR                  
CWA...SO LEFT THIS TIME FRAME DRY. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE                 
PATTERN FOR THIS COMING WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR EACH AFTERNOON            
ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR. SO NO BIG RANGES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY            
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECASTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY.            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                                
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...BML                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
710 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MICHIGAN INTO NRN ILLINOIS THIS             
MORNING...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE AIR             
MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE.  LOOKING TO THE                 
WEST...WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A MCS OVER ERN             
IOWA.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING EAST INTO WRN ILLINOIS.  THIS MCS WAS            
ASSOCD WITH A MCV WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACRS THE REGION                 
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  IT APPEARS THAT THE MCS HAS CAUSED A WEAK SFC             
LOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN IOWA ON THE SOUTH END OF THE COLD FRONT.  AM            
CONCERNED THAT THE FORMATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL SLOW THE COLD FRONT            
MORE THAN CURRENT RUC AND NAM-WRF ARE INDICATING.  WITH THAT                    
SAID...WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO SHOWER WITH A CB MENTION AT KSBN.  THE            
FRONT SHOULD PASS KSBN BY MID AFTERNOON...DWINDLING THE THREAT FOR              
PCPN THERE.  FOR KFWA...THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR                         
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THUS WILL EMPLOY A TEMPO TSRA BETWEEN 18Z             
AND 22Z...THE BEST TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR.                                      
FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTH.             
BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KFWA BY THIS                  
TIME...SO WILL GO DRY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SRN               
GREAT LAKES TOWARD MORNING.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH            
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH EXPECTED AT KSBN TOWARD MORNING.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC40 AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THIS FCST               
PACKAGE.                                                                        
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24                 
HOURS.                                                                          
AT 08Z...THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS                   
LOCATED FROM SE ONTARIO...ACRS NRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO FAR SE                  
WISCONSIN.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BEING LOCATED              
FROM ABOUT DETROIT...TO GOSHEN...IN...TO KANKAKEE IL BY 18Z...THEN              
FROM NEAR CLEVELAND...TO CNTRL INDIANA...THEN INTO CNTRL ILLINOIS BY            
00Z THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE             
UNSTABLE AS EXHIBITED BY CURRENT MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG.             
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE REGION...A WEAK S/WV WILL APCH FROM THE             
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACRS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  ALTHOUGH            
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY                 
WEAK...THE S/WV AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SBCAPES NEAR LIMA               
OHIO ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTN) WILL BE ENOUGH TO             
KICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE              
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY END ACRS THE FAR NW CWFA THIS                
AFTN AS DRIER AIR FROM 925 MB TO 850 MB MOVES INTO THIS AREA.  DO               
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO DRY JUST YET...SO WILL LAYER POPS FROM            
20 PERCENT FAR NW TO 50 PERCENT SE.  THIS WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO               
FINE TUNE FCST.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE                
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE UPPER 80S ACRS THE SOUTH AND                     
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH.  ANOTHER COLD             
FRONT WILL APCH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE FCST            
AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THEN INTO THE SRN CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING.                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF            
THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHILE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN               
THE WAY OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.  WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20               
PERCENT NORTH TO 50 SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS...THEN JUST A 30                
PERCENT CHC IN THE FAR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY             
FILTER INTO THE REGION.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO              
MID 60S.                                                                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TIME                 
FRAME IS A DRY ONE...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY             
MORNING. THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL FOR FRIDAY               
AND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IT HAS KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN TO             
THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS JUST CREEPING SOME QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART             
OF OUR CWA. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE YET              
FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. SO WITH A CHANCE               
THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GOING ON INTO FRIDAY                
MORNING...HAVE PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE               
CWA WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL.                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE            
GFS IS SHOWING A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN AND CANADA TO THE               
NORTH NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW TO HAVE NO             
AFFECT ON THE CWA. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL                
SHORTWAVE THAT GFS IS SHOWING TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE DRY FOR OUR                  
CWA...SO LEFT THIS TIME FRAME DRY. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE                 
PATTERN FOR THIS COMING WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR EACH AFTERNOON            
ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR. SO NO BIG RANGES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY            
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECASTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST INTO SE             
WISCONSIN...THEN INTO ERN IOWA AT 05Z.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS               
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.                                           
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING LOW LVL AC/STRATOCUMULUS             
ACRS NRN INDIANA.  THESE CLOUDS WERE BEING SUSTAINED BY A MOIST LOW             
LVL WAA FLOW PATTERN.  SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE                 
LOCATED EAST OF KFWA...AND THESE SHOULD STAY EAST OF KFWA THROUGH               
THE NIGHT.  THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF                       
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TODAY.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE               
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KSBN BY 16Z.  THUS...HAVE                   
REMOVED CHC/S OF THUNDERSTORMS HERE AS IT LOOKS TO BE A SLIM CHC                
ATTM.  AS FOR KFWA...FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NEAR 22Z...SO HAVE                 
MAINTAINED A VCTS IN THE TAF.                                                   
FOR THURSDAY EVENING...ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL               
REMAIN ACRS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION.              
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APCH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER 06Z             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...BML                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
1120 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MORNING MCS HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING... WITH LINE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MO LIKELY TO MISS THE CWA TO               
THE SOUTH.  15Z OBS INDICATE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS             
CENTRAL MO/IL... THOUGH CONVECTION IN IL IS MUDDYING THE SFC                    
ANALYSIS.  DISTINCT MCV WAS OVER NE KS/NW MO... AND 12Z SUBJECTIVE              
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP SHORTWAVE OVER NE KS.  THESE                  
FEATURES WILL PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL HELP FUEL                  
STORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/MCV.  QUESTION               
FOR CWA IS WHETHER STORMS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN                 
COUNTIES.  RUC PROGS INDICATE VIRTUALLY NO CAPE NORTH OF HWY 34...              
EVEN ELEVATED... AND ONLY MINIMAL THERE... THOUGH RUC SOUNDINGS DO              
INDICATE SOME SBCAPE AROUND 18Z IF TEMPS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE                   
LOW-MID 80S.  STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EASTWARD... WITH                        
RIGHT-MOVERS MOVING ESE.  BELIEVE CHANCE EXISTS FOR STORMS TO CLIP              
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES... BUT AREA WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH OF THE              
BOUNDARY WITH TOO LITTLE CAPE AND SHEAR TO SUSTAIN SEVERE STORMS                
THIS FAR NORTH.  DESTABILIZATION IN CLEARING AREA SHOULD NOT BE                 
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME DRYING AT LOW/MID LEVELS ENOUGH FOR STRONG                   
UPDRAFTS... THOUGH MAY SEE PULSY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF              
STRONGEST HEATING... AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER MAY REACH              
INTO SOUTHERN AS MCV AND SHORTWAVE PASS BY. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO            
MAINTAIN LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL POPS SOUTH BUT TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT             
TO NO PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN 2/3 AS BELIEVE AREA IS TOO FAR                     
POST-FRONTAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  HAVE TWEAKED CLOUD AND TEMP              
GRIDS... BUT OTHER THAN CHANGES TO WEATHER AND POPS... CHANGES WERE             
MINOR.                                                                          
..MAYES..                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 400 AM...                                      
LATEST SFC/MSAS ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING INITIAL SFC BOUNDARY WASHING            
OUT ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER...AND UP THRU NORTHEAST IL AND WI. MORE              
DEFINED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST ACRS CENTRAL IA AND WESTERN WI                
GATEWAY TO DRIER AIRMASS. ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT WILL               
ROLL ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES AND MAKE IT RIGHT ACRS THE             
SOUTH HALF OF THE LOCAL FA THRU MIDDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED MCS JUST               
UPSTREAM IMPACTING THE SAME AREA THIS MORNING. WILL COVER THE SOUTH             
HALF WITH CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY POPS...BUT WILL KEEP CHC POPS TO THE           
NORTH FOR MORE SCTRD AND ELEVATED TYPE CONVECTION. SOUTHERN 2-3                 
TIERS OF COUNTIES MAY BE SUSPECT TO ISOLATED SVR IN WAY OF WET                  
MICROBURSTS UP TO 65 MPH...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HAIL UP TO AN INCH.           
H25 MB JET STREAK INCREASING TO AT LEAST 100 KTS JUST NORTH OF THE              
MN/IA BORDER WILL ALSO ADD SUPPORT THIS MORNING TO STORM ACTIVITY.              
BETTER THERMODYNAMIC...INSTABILITY...AND LLVL CONVERGENCE OF THTA-E             
FIELDS ALL MIGRATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AS THE DAY                    
PROGRESSES...WITH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF MO AND SOUTH HALF OF IL                 
LOOKING PRIME FOR SVR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES/IGNITED BY REMNANTS OF               
CURRENT MCS/. AS LARGE HUDSON BAY REGION UPPER LEVEL VORTEX TAKING              
HOLD...MAIN BELT OF UPPER WESTERLIES WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH AND MORE            
CYCLONIC IN NATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE                 
BUILDING DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE                   
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL SHUNT MAIN BOUNDARIES AND HIGHER SFC DPT POOLS             
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY...AND WILL TREND FCST POPS TO DRY LATER              
TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BETS POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ACRS           
THE FAR SOUTH FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION FEEDING ON NORTHERN              
FRINGE OF RE-INVIGORATED LLVL THTA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE FIELDS               
ACRS MO.                                                                        
GRT LKS HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LK EFFECT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL DEEPEN               
ACRS THE CWA AS FRI PROGRESSES...MAKING FOR A DRIER/LOWER RH AND                
PLEASANT DAY TO END THE WEEK. WITH INSOLATION AND MIXING IN                     
DEEPENING NORTHEAST FETCH...EXPECT WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S              
FOR FRI HIGHS. RIDGE OVERHEAD AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRI NIGHT                  
SHOULD SET UP IDEAL RADIATION COOLING...AND WITH DPTS CONTINUING TO             
DRY OUT A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IN THE 50S WILL BE IN STORE.                    
QUICK LOOK AT LONGER RANGE SUGGEST TROUBLING NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT               
STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LEAVE THE EARLIER                  
INTRODUCED CHC POPS.                                                            
..12..                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAYES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
535 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH 18Z TO BETTER REPRESENT             
CURRENT TRENDS.                                                                 
PRECIP HAS REALLY DECREASED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE LAST                  
COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER BOTH THE 09Z RUC AND 06Z WRF/NAM ARE                   
CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SLN TO ICT BETWEEN 12Z               
AND 15Z. NOTICED THAT THE RUC ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWING AROUND                  
1500J/KG OF MU CAPE ALONG AND EAST OF I 135 ALONG WITH SOME WEAK                
700MB WARM ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ALONG THE 310K SURFACE. THEREFORE              
AM HESITANT TO YANK POPS OVER CENTRAL KS...BUT DID LOWER QUITE A BIT            
FROM ORIGINAL ZONE ISSUANCE.                                                    
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY             
AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.                              
TODAY-TONIGHT:                                                                  
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING A GOOD                  
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS I TYPE. LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER                   
WESTERN KS EARLIER THIS EVENING GENERATED AN MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY              
SITUATED NEAR GBD AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY.               
850MB FRONT WILL BE LINGERING AROUND THIS AREA PROVIDING SOME                   
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY              
PREDICATED ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER SE KS THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL             
STORM INITIATION WOULD BE LIKELY DOWN THERE IF SOME SUN WOULD BE                
POSSIBLE. IF TEMPS CAN GET TO AROUND 80 IN SE KS...THERE WOULD BE               
AROUND 2500-3000J/KG OF CAPE...WITH A GOOD PORTION OF BELOW 700MB.              
DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AREA CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.                     
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE               
DAY PROGRESSES SO ADJUST POPS IN GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. EVEN IF WE GET              
SOME SUN TODAY...SATURATED GROUNDS WILL NOT ALLOW TO MUCH OF A WARM             
UP...SO WENT WITH HIGHS A TAD BELOW GFS MOS.                                    
FOR TONIGHT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE REGIONS FOR STORM                 
DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL BE  SW KS/SE CO WHERE UPSLOPE WILL BE               
VERY PREVALENT TODAY. THE SECOND WOULD BE OVER EXTREME SE                       
KS/NORTHERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO ALONG FRONT AS LOW LEVEL JET PICKS               
UP. THEREFORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER SE KS.                        
FRI-SAT:                                                                        
BY FRI MORNING THERE SHOULD BE STORMS OVER ONGOING OVER WESTERN OK              
AND THE OZARKS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN               
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WITH THE THINKING THAT STORMS OVER SW KS               
MAY GENERATE ANOTHER...WEAKER...MCV. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON             
THIS PANNING OUT. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM                     
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WOULD BE OVER              
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NE/WY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AROUND THE WESTERN                 
PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH. WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE                 
WILL TO OUR WEST...WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL SET UP. IT WILL BE                
INTERESTING TO SEE IF STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR              
STORMS IN FOR FRI NIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS AND GO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE               
FOR SAT NIGHT AS STORM INITIATION MAY TAKE PLACE CLOSER TO HOME...IE            
NW KS.                                                                          
WITH SATURATED GROUNDS STILL IN PLACE...MUCH OF HEATING WILL GO                 
TOWARDS EVAPORATION...THUS KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK. SO WILL GO UNDER             
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS.                                  
SUN-WED:                                                                        
BOTH ECM AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER WAVE TO TRACK            
FROM WI AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUN. EVEN WITH              
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AREA...THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH                 
LIFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA TO GET PRECIP FOR                
SUN. WITH THIS WAVE TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MON...WILL SHUT            
PRECIP CHANCES AFTER SUN...EXPECTING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE. NW            
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MON-WED KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH            
NO SIGNIFICANT WARM-UPS ANTICIPATED.                                            
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    84  64  85  64 /  60  20  20  10                                
HUTCHINSON      84  63  86  64 /  60  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          84  64  85  64 /  70  30  20  10                                
ELDORADO        85  64  84  64 /  70  40  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  65  85  65 /  60  30  20  10                                
RUSSELL         82  62  87  63 /  40  20  10  20                                
GREAT BEND      83  62  87  63 /  40  20  10  20                                
SALINA          84  63  85  63 /  70  30  10  20                                
MCPHERSON       84  63  85  63 /  60  20  10  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     86  65  83  64 /  80  60  30  10                                
CHANUTE         84  65  84  62 /  90  70  20  10                                
IOLA            84  65  83  62 /  90  70  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    85  65  83  64 /  80  60  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1150 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
I UPDATED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST THE 30 PCT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS            
NORTH TO INTERSTATE 96.  LOOKING RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS OVER LAKE                
MICHIGAN AND IN VARIOUS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THERE IS              
AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT THE MCV MOVING OUT              
OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WRN IL HAS ACTIVATED. AS THE LEAD EDGE OF THE              
MCS MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 9 AM...AN AREA OF CONVECTION                
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPED AND IS NOW MOVING ON SHORE.                 
SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR BY...FROM FNT TO GRR AT 14Z...               
THE MCV MAY ACT TO INDUCE A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND KEEP THE                      
CONVECTION GOING EAST ACROSS THE CWA.  I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SURFACE             
BASED CONVECTION DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM            
THE MCS EVEN SO I WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER                 
REPORT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.                              
TONIGHT...THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AND               
BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE CONVECTION WITH THAT                  
BOUNDARY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. GIVE THE JET ENTRANCE REGION IS                
OVER CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL                   
MOISTURE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...               
IT MADE SENSE TO ME SO I PUT A 30 PCT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM OVER               
OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.                                                     
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
700 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WE'VE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST COUPLE              
OF DAYS IS TRYING TO MOVE AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS            
KICKS THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ALONG.  FRONTAL POSITION IS QUITE                  
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THIS MORNING SINCE THE MCS ACTIVITY OVER                   
KANSAS...NEBRASKA...AND IOWA IS MUDDYING THE WATERS.  HOWEVER...IT              
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EXTREME            
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND CONTINUING EAST THROUGH             
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING               
DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS IS CONTINUED TO BE            
EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOVES THE FRONT IN FITS AND STARTS              
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  TRYING TO TIME FROPA AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION             
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE DUE TO THE FICKLE NATURE OF WHERE AND WHEN                
THESE MCS'S WILL FORM.                                                          
HAVE BASICALLY THROWN THE GFS IN THE TRASH DUE TO ITS CONTINUED                 
PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  THE NEW NAM/WRF MODEL SEEMS TO              
HAVE AT LEAST A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT'S GOING ON OVER THE PLAINS AND            
WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME...SO I'VE LEANED HEAVILY ON ITS                   
SOLUTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO 60-70 PERCENT FOR             
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH            
THE CWFA.  I'M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SAY CATEGORICALLY THAT IT                
WILL RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THAT TIME-FRAME DUE TO THE               
LACK OF STRONG FORCING...BUT IT SURE SEEMS LIKELY THAT A MAJORITY OF            
THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN.  SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL OR               
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI MAY RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT            
AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND SMALL SHORTWAVE            
TROF ALOFT.  BUT AGAIN...SIGNALS ARE VERY WEAK...SO HAVEN'T                     
HIGHLIGHTED ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.  MAY MENTION                     
IT IN THE HWO LATER...                                                          
THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR                 
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP CHANCES.  THIS             
FINAL PUSH SEEMS TO BE AT LEAST PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING             
UPPER PATTERN AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND             
A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.  THIS SHOULD PUT THE                  
MIDWEST BACK INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOW A CANADIAN AIRMASS             
TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING OUR AREA RELATIVELY               
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                               
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MCS CENTERED OVR SE IA IS MOVING TO THE EAST                 
WITH CONVECTION AS FAR SOUTH AS CNTRL MO ON ITS SW FLANK. THE                   
CELLS ON THE SW FLANK ARE MOVING TO THE NE. THIS MOTION ALG WITH                
THE MOVEMENT OF THE MCS SHOULD BRING SHRA/TSRA INTO UIN THIS MRNG.              
THE INITIAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL                  
OCCUR ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MCS. THERE IS A RATHER PRONOUNCED                  
OUTFLOW BNDRY AND THE RUC SHOWS DECENT H85 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE                 
THRU CNTRL MO...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THIS MRNG                
IN THE COU TAF IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL. THIS OUTFLOW IF IT LASTS              
COULD MORE OR LESS BECOME THE EFFECTIVE FORCING MECHANISM FOR PCPN              
TDA. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING A THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA TO COME WITH THE              
FRONTAL BNDRY. THE FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM BUT STILL                 
APPEARED TO BE DRAPPED ACRS IA INTO NRN KS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING               
A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FRONT...BUT THE GREATEST CONSENSUS               
WOULD BRING THE FRONT TO AROUND I-70 BY 00Z AND THEN SLOWLY SINK                
IT SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT. I HAVE PROB OR TEMPO GROUP TO                 
ACCT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX              
WITH THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THEN                   
REMOVED THE PCPN CHANCES FEELING THE BEST CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH              
OF THE TAF SITES.                                                               
GLASS                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
935 AM MDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                 
UPDATES TO INCREASE CHANCES AND COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST RUN OF WRF...AND RUC...INCREASE                   
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXTENDED                 
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE                
TO THIS CHANGE LATE IN FIRST PERIOD...EXPANDED CHANGES INTO EVENING             
PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST            
AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. INCREASED SKY GRIDS COMMENSURATE WITH CHANGES              
TO POPS. SLIGHT INCREASE TO DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY TODAY TO ACCOUNT            
FOR INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHWEST. WINDS AND MAXIMA LOOK OK.                    
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...                                                          
FAIRLY BLAND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NEARLY ZONAL                 
FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE                 
WESTERN STATES.                                                                 
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE                 
SURFACE. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM THE                  
LAST FEW DAYS SO WILL NOT NEED LAKE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE STILL              
SOME WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WITH                
SLIGHT INSTABILITY LINGERING AT THE SURFACE...COULD RESULT IN A                 
LITTLE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT MUCH AT LOW                   
LEVELS TO FOCUS LIFT OTHER THAN POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LEE TROF                    
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MONTANA.                                                  
STRONGER WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED                  
WITH IT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO DAKOTAS...SHOULD SEE                    
RISING DEW POINTS ACROSS THE EAST IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.                  
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST IN ADVANCE OF                 
THE FRONT...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                       
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON SATURDAY WITH BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE                   
PUSHING UPPER VORTICITY STREAMS FURTHER NORTH FOR DRY FORECAST.                 
EBERT                                                                           
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                 
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE              
GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST FROM A LARGE                 
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT                 
INITIALLY WITH UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT              
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY                       
CONDITIONS WITH THIS PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE                 
WEEKEND THE DGEX MODEL PARTS WAYS WITH GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH GFS AND              
ECMWF MAINTAIN THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING AN UPPER LOW OFF              
THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ECMWF THEN IS                
MUCH QUICKER IN BRINGING THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC                  
NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD INITIATE COOLER FLOW OVER THE FORECAST                    
AREA...A TREND NOT SEEN IN THE GFS. MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BY THE               
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN LARGE CHANGES IN MODELS...WILL                
POSTPONE CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY IN HOPES OF SEEING GREATER MODEL                 
CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH FUTURE RUNS. THEREFORE IN AGREEMENT               
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE              
ENSEMBLES. SCT                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR                
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS. EXPECT                
JUST FEW TO SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS TO FORM AROUND 7-8K FT AGL FOR               
TODAY. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTRUBANCE WILL CAUSE A                    
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE KGGW AREA WESTWARD               
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. -MDP                                   
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1040 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRI NGT)...                                                
UPDATE...MRNG SHWRS HAVE NOW PULLED EAST AND WE ARE NOW AWAITING SCT            
AFTN CONV TO DVLP. WRF DERIVED MODEL SNDGS CAPES A BIT HI AS THE                
MODEL SEEMS TO STILL HAVE TOO MUCH LOW LVL MOISTURE...AND DEW PTS               
ARE TOO HIGH. STILL...MODIFYING 12Z RAOBS GIOVES CAPES NEAR 1500                
J/KG SO AFTN CONV SEEMS LIKELY WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CAP.            
WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGER...WLD IMAGINE LAKE BNDRIES AND TERRAIN WILL            
FOCUS INITIAL BLD UPS. MAIN CNCNR FOR ANY SVR WLD BE HAIL AND GUSTY             
WINDS WITH A BIT OF A MID LVL DRY PUNCH MVG IN. WITH SOME MID AND               
UPPER LVL CONV DEBRIS ARND...AND PLENTY OF CU...BELIEVE FCSTD MAX               
TEMPS A BIT HIGH SO HAVE LWRD. OTRW...JUST ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CRNT              
CONDS AND REISSUED. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.  MORFORD                               
WHAT LOOKED LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR MCS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS            
TURNED INTO ANYTHING BUT.  LARGE SCALE COMPLEX RAKING NORTHERN OH IS            
GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO WV/PA WITH BACK-BUILDING INTO NW               
OH.  ADDNL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS                    
PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC.  CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF            
MAIN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN                 
PORTIONS OF FA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  EVOLUTION FROM THERE IS              
MURKY...AS IS ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.                                
00Z MODELS ALL HAD HARD TIME WITH INITIALIZATION OF QPF FIELDS.  GFS            
INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH COMPLEX AND AS A RESULT...IS TOO FAR             
NORTH WITH LOCATION BY 12Z.  RUC ALSO DID POOR JOB WITH                         
INITIALIZATION BUT HAS SO FAR CAUGHT ONTO TREND OF DROPPING IT                  
SOUTHEAST THRU MORNING.  LOCAL AND OPERATIONAL WRF ALSO DID NOT PICK            
UP ON NORTHERN OH CONVECTION BUT DID INITIALLY SEE DEVELOPMENT                  
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS EXPLODE CONVECTION              
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO FA BTWN 10-12Z.  IN REALITY...WHAT LITTLE                 
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED HAS LONG SINCE WEAKENED.  HAVING SAID ALL                  
THAT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLN IS EXTREMELY LOW FOR THE FIRST 6            
HRS AS TO WHETHER ANY ADDNL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.                
WRF BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT              
INTO FA TODAY.  THIS IS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN MODELS WERE             
INDICATING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE WOULD BE IN PLACE.  H8 LLJ HAS ALSO              
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE...WITH MAIN CORE BEING SHOWN BY RUC ACROSS                
SEPA RATHER THAN UPSTATE NY AS INDICATED WITH PREVIOUS 00Z RUN.                 
WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST POSSIBLE MINUTE BEFORE ISSUANCE TO SEE WHETHER             
ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.  GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HIGHEST              
POPS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THEN TAPERING TO LO CHC POPS                 
ACROSS NORTH.                                                                   
SCTD STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT                 
ANYWHERE.  00Z WRF HINTING AT PRE-FRONTAL TROF TO OUR NORTH BY EARLY            
EVENING WITH CONVECTION SPREADING AHEAD OF IT.  DRYING ALOFT WILL               
WORK IN...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE.  MODEL DEWPTS MAY BE                
SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT STILL THINK MID-UPPER 60S REASONABLE.  THIS             
WOULD YIELD CAPES ON ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LI/S ARND -5C.                 
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LOW WET-BULB ZEROES FVRBL FOR DAMAGING WIND             
GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.                               
AS IF IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WEREN/T BAD ENOUGH...MODELS DIVERGE                  
RAPIDLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.  GFS STILL FASTER WITH                  
MOVEMENT OF FRONT...BUT STALLS IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  WITH THIS              
SCENARIO...DEVELOPING WAVE THAT RIDES UP FRI NIGHT WOULD DUMP HEAVY             
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM 00-12Z SAT...WITH GFS                   
INDICATING 3.00+ INCHES ACROSS CATSKILLS.                                       
OPERATIONAL WRF SAGS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH LIGHTER QPF IN                 
THESE AREAS.  HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BTWN GFS/WRF.  00Z WRF                
ALSO SHOWING SPURIOUS HEAVY PCPN BAND TO NORTHWEST OF SFC FRONT 00Z             
SATURDAY IN REGION OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.  NOT SURE IF THIS IS A              
RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OR IF FEATURE MAY BE REAL...BUT WOULD             
TEND TO DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW.  IF GFS VERIFIES...EXTREMELY WET                 
PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASED              
FLOODING THREAT FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  -PB             
&&                                                                              
.LONG RANGE (SAT - WED)...                                                      
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR ENTIRE EXTENDED. BOUNDARY REMAINS             
OVER SRN PTN OF CWA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF REGION THROUGH MONDAY.              
POP GRADIENT THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AREAS OVER              
SRN PTN OF CWA POSSIBLY RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM                     
CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY, BOUNDARY MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR AREA             
TO RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR FOLLOWED BY FROPA ON WEDNESDAY.  RRM                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (22/12Z TO 23/12Z)...                                                 
VFR THROUGHOUT PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS FIRST 2 HOURS. CIGS DROP TO 4 OR            
5K FT...THEN MOVE EAST MIDDAY. SOME TS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON            
BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY FOR EVEN A TEMPS. WINDS OUT OF SW AT 5 TO              
10 KTS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO W. WINDS TONIGHT             
AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TAC                                                   
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
820 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.AVIATION (22/12Z TO 23/12Z)...                                                 
VFR THROUGHOUT PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS FIRST 2 HOURS. CIGS DROP TO 4 OR            
5K FT...THEN MOVE EAST MIDDAY. SOME TS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON            
BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY FOR EVEN A TEMPS. WINDS OUT OF SW AT 5 TO              
10 KTS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO W. WINDS TONIGHT             
AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TAC                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRI NGT)...                                                
WHAT LOOKED LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR MCS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS            
TURNED INTO ANYTHING BUT.  LARGE SCALE COMPLEX RAKING NORTHERN OH IS            
GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO WV/PA WITH BACK-BUILDING INTO NW               
OH.  ADDNL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS                    
PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC.  CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF            
MAIN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN                 
PORTIONS OF FA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  EVOLUTION FROM THERE IS              
MURKY...AS IS ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.                                
00Z MODELS ALL HAD HARD TIME WITH INITIALIZATION OF QPF FIELDS.  GFS            
INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH COMPLEX AND AS A RESULT...IS TOO FAR             
NORTH WITH LOCATION BY 12Z.  RUC ALSO DID POOR JOB WITH                         
INITIALIZATION BUT HAS SO FAR CAUGHT ONTO TREND OF DROPPING IT                  
SOUTHEAST THRU MORNING.  LOCAL AND OPERATIONAL WRF ALSO DID NOT PICK            
UP ON NORTHERN OH CONVECTION BUT DID INITIALLY SEE DEVELOPMENT                  
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS EXPLODE CONVECTION              
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO FA BTWN 10-12Z.  IN REALITY...WHAT LITTLE                 
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED HAS LONG SINCE WEAKENED.  HAVING SAID ALL                  
THAT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLN IS EXTREMELY LOW FOR THE FIRST 6            
HRS AS TO WHETHER ANY ADDNL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.                
WRF BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT              
INTO FA TODAY.  THIS IS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN MODELS WERE             
INDICATING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE WOULD BE IN PLACE.  H8 LLJ HAS ALSO              
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE...WITH MAIN CORE BEING SHOWN BY RUC ACROSS                
SEPA RATHER THAN UPSTATE NY AS INDICATED WITH PREVIOUS 00Z RUN.                 
WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST POSSIBLE MINUTE BEFORE ISSUANCE TO SEE WHETHER             
ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.  GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HIGHEST              
POPS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THEN TAPERING TO LO CHC POPS                 
ACROSS NORTH.                                                                   
SCTD STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT                 
ANYWHERE.  00Z WRF HINTING AT PRE-FRONTAL TROF TO OUR NORTH BY EARLY            
EVENING WITH CONVECTION SPREADING AHEAD OF IT.  DRYING ALOFT WILL               
WORK IN...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE.  MODEL DEWPTS MAY BE                
SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT STILL THINK MID-UPPER 60S REASONABLE.  THIS             
WOULD YIELD CAPES ON ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LI/S ARND -5C.                 
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LOW WET-BULB ZEROES FVRBL FOR DAMAGING WIND             
GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.                               
AS IF IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WEREN/T BAD ENOUGH...MODELS DIVERGE                  
RAPIDLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.  GFS STILL FASTER WITH                  
MOVEMENT OF FRONT...BUT STALLS IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  WITH THIS              
SCENARIO...DEVELOPING WAVE THAT RIDES UP FRI NIGHT WOULD DUMP HEAVY             
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM 00-12Z SAT...WITH GFS                   
INDICATING 3.00+ INCHES ACROSS CATSKILLS.                                       
OPERATIONAL WRF SAGS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH LIGHTER QPF IN                 
THESE AREAS.  HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BTWN GFS/WRF.  00Z WRF                
ALSO SHOWING SPURIOUS HEAVY PCPN BAND TO NORTHWEST OF SFC FRONT 00Z             
SATURDAY IN REGION OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.  NOT SURE IF THIS IS A              
RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OR IF FEATURE MAY BE REAL...BUT WOULD             
TEND TO DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW.  IF GFS VERIFIES...EXTREMELY WET                 
PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASED              
FLOODING THREAT FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  -PB             
&&                                                                              
.LONG RANGE (SAT - WED)...                                                      
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR ENTIRE EXTENDED. BOUNDARY REMAINS             
OVER SRN PTN OF CWA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF REGION THROUGH MONDAY.              
POP GRADIENT THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AREAS OVER              
SRN PTN OF CWA POSSIBLY RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM                     
CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY, BOUNDARY MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR AREA             
TO RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR FOLLOWED BY FROPA ON WEDNESDAY.  RRM                   
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1032 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ATOP THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH              
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT LIKELY CLIMBING ABOVE -10C                   
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MCS TRACK WILL HOLD TO OUR NORTH AND NO LARGE              
SCALE FORCING MECHANISM FOR NC IS EVIDENT IN THE UPPER AIR                      
ANALYSES... ASIDE FROM VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE PIEDMONT FROM             
THE SURFACE THROUGH 925 MB. DESPITE A WEAK CAP ALOFT... MODERATE                
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH ADJUSTED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING            
CAPE VALUES OVER 1700 J/KG... BUT TOTAL TOTALS ARE A MINISCULE 39.              
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL EXCEED 6 C/KM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN                 
CWA... AND GIVEN THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE               
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY'S MCS            
AND ANY POSSIBLE GROUND MOISTURE FLUX DIFFERENTIAL... FEEL JUSTIFIED            
LEAVING IN THE CURRENT ISOLATED POPS. WE ARE STARTING THE DAY                   
TRENDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST PACE OF                         
TEMPERATURES... BUT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S STILL APPEAR REACHABLE.             
-GIH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 653 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT AND                    
CONFINE IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS                      
MORNING. -RFG                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 140 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH                 
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP                  
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TEMPERATURES APPEAR DESTINED            
FOR MID 90S AND COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 68-71 DEGREE RANGE              
WILL YEILD HEAT INDICES NEAR 102.  A SPEACIAL STATEMENT WILL BE                 
UPDATED FOR POTENTIAL HEAT STRESS TODAY.                                        
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES            
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT                 
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE             
FLOW ALOFT IN FAVOR OF A MORE SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN.              
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BACK DOWN BUT STILL MAX ABOVE 90 ON FRI AND                 
CLOSER TO NORMAL UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME CLOUDINESS ON               
THE INCREASE.  -RFG                                                             
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
MODELS SUGGEST A PREDOMINANTLY WET PERIOD FOR CENTRAL NC WITH THE               
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES FROM AN INFUSION OF               
TROPICAL MOISTURE.  EACH OF THE MODELS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH                 
SETTING UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW SAT NIGHT-SUN WITH AN AXIS FROM              
THE NE GULF TO THE UPPER TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS.  THIS IN               
COMBINATION WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NE OF BERMUDA PRODUCES            
A FLOW OF AIR WITH A LONG FETCH OFF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO               
THE CAROLINAS.  THIS PATTERN BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY WITH WITH                 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONS FIXED OVER THE WEST COAST AND CENTRAL               
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EASTERN U.S.               
THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND BASICALLY SETS UP A STATIONARY                 
BOUNDARY OVER THE EAST COAST STATES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE                
INTERACTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE              
FREQUENT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE AXIS OF                    
HEAVIEST AND GREATEST RAINFALL COVERAGE YET TO BE DETERMINED.  BUT              
FOR CENTRAL NC...EACH 12 HOURS SEGMENT WILL SHOW ABOVE NORMAL                   
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. VARIABLE              
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DEW POINTS FAVORING THE 70 DEGREE MARK               
SHOULD KEEP NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 70.  -RFG                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
HIGH HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 BUT RADIATION IS BEING BLOCKED            
A BIT BY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. STILL                   
EXPECT IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG IN THE PREDAWN AT FAY AND RWI WHICH HAD            
RAIN YESTERDAY AND HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO MVFR AT ISSUANCE.                     
TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5KFT AS              
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION. -MLM                                  
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1152 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                     
HAVE UPDATED TO SPRUCE UP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.                    
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPS/POPS/WX FOR THIS AFTERNOON.             
CLEARING IS SPREADING DOWN FROM THE N AND NW, SO AFTERNOON TEMPS                
SHOULD GET UP TO FORECAST LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED TSTMS                 
TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COULD BE                   
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING                 
MORE UNSTABLE, SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR.                     
ALSO ADJUSTED POPS AND WX TO FIT MORE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES                  
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL REEVALUATE THE HEAVY RAIN                    
THREAT IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                            
RPW                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISC...                                                                
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                     
WHAT TO DO WITH THE MCS? THE GFS SEEMS THE FARTHEST FROM REALITY                
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP RIDING INTO NEW YORK STATE. BOTH THE RUC            
AND THE NAM ARE TOO SLOW, BUT AT LEAST THEY DO SHOW A SOUTHEAST                 
DRIFT. WE'LL RUN WITH THE NAM THIS MORNING, BUT BASED OFF SAT PIX               
TRENDS SPEED THINGS UP BY ABOUT THREE HOURS. WITH THE SYSTEM RUNNING            
INTO STABLE AIR, WHATEVER MAKES IT OVER THE CWA WILL BE IN A                    
WEAKENED FORM. IR IMAGES ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME WARMING CLOUD                
TOPS. LIGHTNING IS ALSO STARTING TO WANE.                                       
THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS SHOULD EFFECT US MORE THIS             
MORNING THAN THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL SHOW SOME DECREASING CLOUD TRENDS            
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BECAUSE OF THIS. THE MORNING MCS               
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE HAD FULL               
SUN TODAY, MID 90S WOULD BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE WARMEST LOCALES.              
ALTHOUGH, MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, OUR BELIEF IS THAT               
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDINESS AROUND TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES. IT               
WILL STILL BE HOT AND SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT                  
TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE MID 90S, HEAT INDICES              
WILL AS DEWPOINTS INCH TOWARD 70 DEGREES.                                       
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THE LAST 24 HOURS COMBINED WITH THIS              
AFTERNOON'S HEAT, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE CAPE/LI VALUES.              
THEY LOOK MORE LEGITIMATE THAN IN THE RECENT PAST WITH FORECAST                 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE NAM, AS OF LATE, HAS BEEN PRODUCING TOO             
MUCH CAPE DUE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WERE TOO HIGH. EVEN THE GFS             
SOUNDINGS ARE IMPRESSIVE. WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE TROF IN THE                   
VICINITY OR EVEN A BOUNDARY STEMMING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION, THE               
SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.                                  
THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE IN THE             
POCONOS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CAPES AND LI'S ARE ONCE AGAIN                     
INDICATING A RIPE ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT'S MORE OF A                 
CONCERN IS THE PW'S THAT ARE BEING FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND                
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TOPS OUT AROUND 2.25", WHILE THE NAM                 
CLIMBS UP TO 2.60". WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE, LOADS OF INSTABILITY,               
AND WITH A COLD FRONT INVOF, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS FLASH              
FLOODING IS A CONCERN. THE SPC HAS ONCE AGAIN PUT THE REGION IN                 
SLIGHT RISK (PER SWODY2). AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS OUR                  
CONCERNS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
OVERALL THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT              
LOOKS TO STALL OVER OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS THE                   
PRIMARY CAUSE OF CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT             
WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE REGION CONTINUING THE ALREADY WET                 
CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE CWA COULD CAUSE                
SOME LOCATIONS TO GET CLOSE TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN (THIS IS IN             
ADDITION TO WHAT FALLS TODAY AND FRIDAY). IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WET            
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.              
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE               
YEAR. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE ESF.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BY 3:00 AM, SOME MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS HAD BEGUN TO DRIFT                   
OVERHEAD.  THE CLOUDS WERE IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX                   
LOCATED IN NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  THE LEADING EDGE            
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVED             
INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.                 
MEANWHILE, TSTMS WERE REGENERATING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COMPLEX              
AS MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                        
WE WE'RE NOT TERRIBLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE               
PRECIP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  IT APPEARS AS THOUGH               
THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX.           
THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING              
WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE              
RESULTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE, WE'VE MENTIONED SOME               
CUMULONIMBUS FOR RDG AND ABE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WE'VE LEFT             
THE MENTION OUT OF OUR REMAINING SIX TAF SITES FOR THE TIME BEING,              
WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR TODAY ON AND NEAR THE COASTAL              
PLAIN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OUR                  
MARINE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE                    
WEEKEND.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,                 
PERHAPS GETTING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA (5 FEET) ON                  
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO                                                            
LONG TERM...MEOLA                                                               
AVIATION...IOVINO                                                               
MARINE...IOVINO                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1048 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...TODAY                                                                 
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR              
NE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. CU FIELD ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS               
THIS AREA AND A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RUC/HI              
RES NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING LI VALUES FROM -2 TO -4 OVER THE AREA AND             
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON                 
TRACK AND NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TT                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
940 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SEVERE TSTM IN SOUTHWEST KY OVER BENTON KY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS               
FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT CENTER AND                 
ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL POOL AROUND 500 MB ON LATEST RUC RUN WHICH IS              
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST.                                                      
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LURKING IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM CONVECTION                 
THAT COLLAPSED LAST EVENING ALONG PLATEAU AND FAR EASTERN MIDDLE.               
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM LEWISBURG TO LEBANON TO LAFAYETTE. HAVE SEEN              
A FEW SHOWERS WORK NORTH THROUGH THE PULASKI AREA THIS MORNING BUT              
THESE HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED.                                              
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ON TRACK.                                       
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY HERE IN MIDDLE TN WITH SOME LOCATIONS               
REACHING THE MID 90S.                                                           
BOYD                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS. AN WEAK TROUGH LIES FROM                      
NRN OK TO NRN MO TO NRN OH. FURTHER N...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH                   
LIES FROM NORTH DAKOTA EWD ACROSS MN TO A STRONG SFC LOW IN                     
E CNTRL CANADA. 500MB HGHTS DROP FROM THEIR CURRENT 591 DM                      
DOWN TO 585 DM BY SAT AM AS THE H5 LOW OVER HUDSON BAY DEEPENS                  
A BIT. AS THE ASSOCD CANADIAN SFC RIDGE PRESSES THE 2 TROUGHS                   
SWD THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A FAIRLY INTENSE SFC LOW OVER THE MISS               
VALLEY THU NGT AND MOVES IT EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.            
THE 48 HR TIME STEPS ON THE 20 KM NAM AND THE 80 KM NGM HAVE NO SUCH            
FEATURE. THUS IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM                 
HAS REARED ITS UGLY HEAD AGAIN. THUS THE SHORT RANGE GFS WAS MOSTLY             
TOSSED AND THE NAM/NGM WAS USED FOR INITIALIZATION.                             
AS THE FRONT GETS PUSHED SWD POPS DECLINE INTO THE 20S OR LOWER                 
FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST AS THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER S                
AND DRIER AIR OCCUPIES THE MIDSTATE.                                            
MOS TEMPS WERE IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE             
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. MOS POPS...DESPITE THE GFS SHORT RANGE PROBLEMS...           
SEEM TO BE FAIRLY REASONABLE AND INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE                 
AS THE FRONT/TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THEN DECLINE AFTERWARD.                     
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
309 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZFP/GRIDS...                                          
MCV ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS PULLED OUT OF THE            
FCST AREA THIS AFTN...WITH SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF                
SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN IL/NW IND. 18 UTC SOUNDING FROM ILX AND RECENT              
ACARS OBSERVATIONS OUT OF KRFD/KORD INDICATE INVERSION ASSOCIATED               
WITH THIS SINKING AIR...WITH WARMING IN 750-850 HPA LAYER KEEPING               
CAP ON ANY RENEWED CONVECTION AS WELL AS PREVENTING FULL POTENTIAL              
OF AFTN WARMING AT SFC. MAIN QUESTION NOW IS DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE               
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS SECONDARY SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH               
INTO REGION AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM MN...AND ALSO              
FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AS SHORT WAVE/MCS OVER MO MOVES             
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS IL. FOR THE FORMER...LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS             
TOOLS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY DVLPG SRN WI SOUTHWEST THROUGH                  
IA...WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST ALONG SFC BOUNDARY.              
VIS SAT PICS SHOW SOME ENHANCED CU DVLPG OVER WRN IA...AND OVER                 
ECNTRL WI. GIVEN THAT THIS BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN NRN               
IL/NW IND UNTIL LATE EVENING AT DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR LOW              
LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND CAPPING ALREADY NOTED DURG AFTN HOURS AHEAD             
OF IT WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NRN PARTS OF CWA. FOR SRN PARTS            
ALSO NOT IMPRESSED WITH ABILITY TO RECOVER THIS AFTN...THOUGH AM                
CONCERNED THAT NORTHERN EDGE OF CURRENT MCS PRECIP WILL BRUSH                   
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST INTO TAIL BROAD                 
UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP CHANCE FOR OUR              
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVRNGT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRI. MID LVL             
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST IN THE AFTN...DECREASING PCPN THREAT THERE.             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS GRTLKS FRI AFTN THROUGH                    
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY QUITE WX FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.                
NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIP THREAT OCCURS SUNDAY AFTN...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE            
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MS VLY/WI IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALFT.                  
APPEARS AT THIS TIME POTENTIAL WOULD MAINLY BE DIURNAL ISOLATED/SCT             
TRW SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL WAA              
ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS GFS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL             
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LLVL WIND FIELD IN VCNTY OF WEAKENING SFC RIDGE            
AXIS. BASED ON THIS WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHC POP MAINLY NRN 1/2 OF CWA            
SUN AFTN THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET.                                                  
OTHERWISE GOING FCST APPEARS TO BE HOLDING UP VERY WELL...AND ONLY A            
FEW MINOR TEMP TWEAKS WERE MADE. ECMWF/GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY MID               
NEXT WEEK WITH HANDLING OF UPPER TROUGH OVER NOAM...SO WILL NOT MAKE            
ANY REAL MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING DRY FCST ATTM.                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS...                                      
100 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE ON SHORT TERM WINDS...AND            
THEN POST-FRONTAL WINDS TONIGHT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY MVFR                 
CIGS. MESO-HIGH HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND WINDS HAVE            
BEEN RATHER CHAOTIC IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. WILL                 
CARRY A VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST VALID                
PERIOD AND THEN BECOMING WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE              
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA. WITH               
LIGHTER WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SOME CONCERN THAT AN EASTERLY                
LAKE ENHANCED COMPONENT COULD HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT EXPECTING             
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS              
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION TO                
PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY                
THIS EVENING SHOULD SEE WINDS VEER AROUND TO NORTH AND EVENTUALLY               
NORTHEAST AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. WILL KEEP TAFS DRY THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER INSTABILITY SETTING UP WELL SOUTH OF THE                  
TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF FEW CU BASED AROUND 5K FT THIS                            
AFTERNOON...JUST EXPECTING SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD IN ASSOCIATION              
WITH MCV TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM THE REMANTS OF THE             
MORNING MCS.                                                                    
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU             
BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS               
ARE INDICATING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN            
IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA REGION. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CAA SHOULD                
AFFECT NORTHEAST ILLINOIS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME SO HAVE                     
INTRODUCED MENTION OF 2K FT STRATOCU LATE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT HAVE               
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE ANY CIGS. DURING TIME OF            
PEAK LOW LEVEL CAA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP IN THE 15 TO 20 RANGE                
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE             
MORNING ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO NORTHERN                  
ILLINOIS WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS.                                              
NDM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1255 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                     
...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO NORTHWEST OHIO LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON...                                                                    
.UPDATE NUMBER 2...                                                             
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE FOR SEVERE               
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 541 INCLUDING ALL OF OUR OHIO COUNTIES.               
EXTENDED LIKELY POPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR OHIO COUNTIES AS WELL.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE            
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CROSSING NORTHERN INDIANA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN              
THRUST IS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...BUT THUNDERSTORM                
DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIKELY AT FORT WAYNE TERMINAL. KEPT THUNDER                
MENTION IN FORT WAYNE TAF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE SOUTH            
BEND TERMINAL BY 18Z WITH NO MORE THUNDER EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF                 
ISSUANCE TIME PERIOD.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN VFR FOR              
THE MOST PART...BUT WILL DROP TO IFR VISIBILITY IN THUNDERSTORMS.               
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z WITH VFR                    
CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.  THERE MAY BE             
A CHANCE OF FOG LATER TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT HAVE ELECTED              
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.                          
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ANOTHER COMPLEX MESOSCALE SITUATION DVLPG THIS AM W/UPSCALE TRENDS              
NOTED IN SMALL BUT SVR FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NOW INTO WRN IL.                 
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED W/STEEP MID            
LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME STILL IN PLACE ACRS MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES OVERTOP            
SEASONABLY MOIST BNDRY LYR. QUASI-STATIONARY FNTL BNDRY EXTENDS FM              
CNTRL LK HURON BACK SW INTO WK SFC FNTL WAVE ANALYZED OVR NE MO AS A            
REFLECTION OF ROBUST MCV ACRS NE KS SPAWNED FM LAST NIGHTS CONVN.               
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF IL ACTIVITY WILL HEAT RAPIDLY THIS MORNING                
UNDERNEATH THIN CIRRUS SHIELD AND WARM START. GIVEN WELL DVLPD COLD             
POOL IN PLACE AND DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR XPC THIS CLUSTER WILL             
CONT TO INTENSIFY AS IT GRAVITATES EWD ACRS THE REMAINDER OF IL                 
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS XPC ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE                       
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACRS IN/OH PORTIONS OF CWA BY LT MORNING INTO            
MID AFTN. WILL UPDATE RELEVANT PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC40 AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THIS FCST               
PACKAGE.                                                                        
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24                 
HOURS.                                                                          
AT 08Z...THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS                   
LOCATED FROM SE ONTARIO...ACRS NRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO FAR SE                  
WISCONSIN.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BEING LOCATED              
FROM ABOUT DETROIT...TO GOSHEN...IN...TO KANKAKEE IL BY 18Z...THEN              
FROM NEAR CLEVELAND...TO CNTRL INDIANA...THEN INTO CNTRL ILLINOIS BY            
00Z THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE             
UNSTABLE AS EXHIBITED BY CURRENT MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG.             
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE REGION...A WEAK S/WV WILL APCH FROM THE             
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACRS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  ALTHOUGH            
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY                 
WEAK...THE S/WV AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SBCAPES NEAR LIMA               
OHIO ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTN) WILL BE ENOUGH TO             
KICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE              
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY END ACRS THE FAR NW CWFA THIS                
AFTN AS DRIER AIR FROM 925 MB TO 850 MB MOVES INTO THIS AREA.  DO               
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO DRY JUST YET...SO WILL LAYER POPS FROM            
20 PERCENT FAR NW TO 50 PERCENT SE.  THIS WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO               
FINE TUNE FCST.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE                
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE UPPER 80S ACRS THE SOUTH AND                     
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH.  ANOTHER COLD             
FRONT WILL APCH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE FCST            
AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THEN INTO THE SRN CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING.                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF            
THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHILE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN               
THE WAY OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.  WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20               
PERCENT NORTH TO 50 SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS...THEN JUST A 30                
PERCENT CHC IN THE FAR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY             
FILTER INTO THE REGION.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO              
MID 60S.                                                                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TIME                 
FRAME IS A DRY ONE...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY             
MORNING. THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL FOR FRIDAY               
AND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IT HAS KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN TO             
THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS JUST CREEPING SOME QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART             
OF OUR CWA. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE YET              
FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. SO WITH A CHANCE               
THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GOING ON INTO FRIDAY                
MORNING...HAVE PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE               
CWA WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL.                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE            
GFS IS SHOWING A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN AND CANADA TO THE               
NORTH NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW TO HAVE NO             
AFFECT ON THE CWA. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL                
SHORTWAVE THAT GFS IS SHOWING TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE DRY FOR OUR                  
CWA...SO LEFT THIS TIME FRAME DRY. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE                 
PATTERN FOR THIS COMING WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR EACH AFTERNOON            
ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR. SO NO BIG RANGES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY            
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECASTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY.            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537 INZ006-007-008-009-012>016-                  
017-018-020-022>024-025>027-032>034                                             
.OH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORN WATCH 541 FOR OHZ 002-004-005-015-                    
016-024-025                                                                     
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...GLL                                                           
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...BML                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
446 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL UPDATE GOING FCST SHORTLY FOR PRECIP AND POPS IN THE SRN CWA.              
SHORTWV TRACKING E THRU IA/MO HAS FLARED UP AN AREA OF PRECIP NR                
IA/MO BORDER MORE WIDEPREAD THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. BASED ON                    
SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE RUC I EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE                   
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING BEFORE PUSHING SE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
334 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN QUESTION THIS CYCLE WILL AGAIN BE CONVECTION.                              
CONVECTION ALREADY BLOWING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OUT INTO                    
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT.               
NONE OF THE 12Z OR 15Z MODELS HAD FORECAST ANY OF THE HUGE                      
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, NORTHEAST COLORADO                
AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH IS GREATLY DISTRESSING. EVEN THE                 
USUALLY GOOD FSL RUC13 AND RUC20 MISSED IT ENTIRELY. THE MUCH                   
VAUNTED 12Z WRF IN PARTICULAR WAS HORRIBLE IN BOTH INITIALIZATION               
AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE 18Z WRF DID                
INITIALIZE THE CONVECTION BUT IMMEDIATELY LOST IT IN ITS FORECASTS.             
PER DISCUSSION WITH GLD WILL HOLD ON TILL THE LAST MINUTE IN HOPES              
WE CAN DEDUCE ANY TRENDS FROM IT THAT WILL HELP WITH THE FORECAST.              
GIVEN THE ABOVE FOR TONIGHT WILL PLAY WHAT THE MODELS DID FORECAST,             
NAMELY ANOTHER MCS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF COLORADO MOVING EAST AND             
SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT                
WHICH EXTENDS FROM AROUND COS TO BETWEEN EHA AND LBL AND SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE EAST TX PANHANDLE. MUCAPES IN THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE               
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL SHEAR ALONG               
THE BOUNDARY THAT STORMS MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO SPIN UP SOME ISOLATED              
TORNADOES. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH SPC WATCH 545 FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST            
KANSAS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LATER WATCH INTO THE                 
PANHANDLES. HAVE ALSO GONE CATEGORICAL FOR PRECIP FROM DDC WEST                 
WHERE THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS. THE             
BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT IN MY            
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.                                                         
AFTER TONIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP SUPPORTS A FEW MORE NIGHTS OF            
LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FIRING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND                  
MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. HAVE LEFT              
SOME SMALLER POPS IN PLACE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER                  
SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. GIVEN THE                  
MODELS PERFORMANCE AND THEIR HUGE UNCERTAINTIES, HAVE KEPT POPS LOW             
WITH THIS FEATURE.                                                              
FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER BOTH NIGHTS AND ALSO             
ON SATURDAY AS THE MOS SEEMS TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH WARMING IN                
SPITE OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR REINFORCING THE POLAR FRONT TO OUR                 
SOUTH EACH NIGHT.                                                               
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
LATE IN THE PERIOD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO                 
STRUGGLE WITH THE WEST COAST/ERN PACIFIC LOW AND LOCATION OF OUR                
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AROUND THE CNTL CONUS. AM THEREFORE LEANING TOWARDS            
PERSISTENCE ON DAYS 6 AND 7. UNTIL THEN ANY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW             
FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PCPN             
SOMEWHERE IN WRN KS. AT THIS TIME AM UNABLE TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OR            
LOCATION DOWN DUE TO HOW MODELS HANDLE THESE WEAKER WAVES EMBEDDED              
IN THE FLOW. THE CURRENT GRIDS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE WITH                
THIS SO WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA SAT NIGHT AND              
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COOL AND DRYER            
PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. CURRENT GRIDS FOR HIGHS STILL LOOK ON                 
TRACK SINCE SEE LITTLE REASON TO GO MUCH WARMER BASED ON PROGGED EC             
OR GFS 85H TEMPS. DID LOWER OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS THE             
MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY NOT LOOKING TOO BAD THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN             
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  62  85  62  85 /  90  10  10 20                                            
GCK  61  86  61  85 /  90  10  20 30                                            
EHA  61  84  61  87 / 100  10  20 10                                            
LBL  62  86  62  87 / 100  10  20 10                                            
HYS  62  85  62  84 /  30   0  10 20                                            
P28  63  85  63  86 /  30  10  10 10                                            
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SVR TSTM WATCH 545 TIL 11PM CDT.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN08/18                                                                         
JOHNSON/BURGERT                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
230 PM MDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION             
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE               
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...FLOW OVER THE              
CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY AND RETROGRESS. THIS WILL                  
PROBABLY HERALD THE CHANGE TO THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY            
THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. THREE SHORTWAVES TO NOTE IN THE            
PROGRESSIVE FLOW. FIRST ONE IS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND             
WESTERN NEBRASKA. SECOND ONE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC                     
NORTHWEST. THIRD ONE IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH              
THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF IT.                       
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...SATELLITE               
SHOW THE MODELS NOT TOO BAD. UKMET/GFS WERE CATCHING THE SHORTWAVE              
DETAILS IN THE PACIFIC THE BEST WITH THE GFS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER ON           
THE LOW POSITIONS. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND RUC LOOK TO BE CAPTURING             
THE SECOND AND THIRD SHORTWAVE POSITIONS THE BEST. ALSO THE RUC AND             
UKMET ARE CATCHING THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING SHORTWAVE THE BEST.                    
HOWEVER...THE UKMET DAMPENS THIS SHORTWAVE OUT. MODELS HAVE TROUBLE             
WITH TROUGH POSITIONS AND STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL                 
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR EAST/NOT DEEP ENOUGH           
WITH SYSTEMS. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR             
EAST THAT BROUGHT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THE GFS WAS THE CLOSEST             
BUT IT WAS TOO FAR EAST. THE PROBLEMS WERE NOT AS BAD OUT WEST. WITH            
THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...THE UKMET WAS DOING SLIGHTLY              
BETTER ON THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE GFS.                                        
AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS DOING VERY WELL WITH CURRENT SITUATION. NAM              
IS DOING THE BEST RIGHT NOW ON THE WIND FIELD. GFS INITIALIZED A                
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST ON TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF            
THE GFS/UKMET/NAM FOR THIS FORECAST.                                            
TONIGHT...INTERESTING COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS           
HAVE BEEN ONGOING/APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALL DAY. THIS IS IN            
RESPONSE TO THE WYOMING SHORTWAVE. ALSO...EITHER ANOTHER FRONTAL                
SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OR BOTH                
PROVIDING SURFACE CONVERGENCE HELP TO THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. RIGHT             
REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY ON. THE               
PRECIPITATION FORECAST WILL HINGE ON THE TRENDS OF THIS CONVECTION.             
HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION MAY HAVE             
PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH            
THE EASTERN PORTION RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THIS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD           
SHUT OFF QUICKLY WITH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS COMING IN BEHIND THIS               
FEATURE.                                                                        
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE SEEING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND                    
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH                 
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NAM/NGM SHOW A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF              
THE JET MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS/UKMET DO NOT                
SHOW THIS.  WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH EARLY...AND RAPIDLY                 
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF           
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE AREA...           
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW                     
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.                
THIS ONE HAS A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AFTER IGNORING              
IT YESTERDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS                 
FEATURE...AND THE POPS HAVE INCREASED. ALSO SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES             
INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE              
AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. WILL START THE             
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST IN THE WEST...AND THEN PUSH IT                
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WARMEST IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.            
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE SURFACE...POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL                
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH IN                 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL AGAIN GO CHANCE STARTING IN THE LATE                 
AFTERNOON. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO               
WET GROUND AND UPSLOPE WINDS.                                                   
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR GOOD                  
PERFORMANCE AND PREVIOUS TRENDS. IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE MAKING THE             
WESTERN RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS.              
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING HOW THE FLOW IS TRANSITIONING                 
RIGHT NOW. OVERALL THE GFS DOES THE BEST WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE            
ECMWF NOT TOO FAR BEHIND UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF                 
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE TOO FAST AND IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.             
ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH FLOW ALOFT THEN WE START TRANSITIONING INTO A             
MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.                
AGAIN HARD TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THIS PATTER WITH THE DETAILS              
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT ON THE PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP SOME               
KIND OF SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.             
TEMPERATURES IN THIS FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT WARM TOO MUCH...AND GUIDANCE           
LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL PROBABLY GO CLOSE TO.                                 
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1204 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THIS AFTERNOON:                                                                 
NEARLY ALL FACETS OF INHERITED FORECAST APPEAR INTACT...AS BEST                 
CHANCES FOR TSRA REMAIN SLATED FOR SE KS WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO               
850-MB COLD FRONT THAT'LL SURGE SE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MOISTURE-             
RICH ENVIRONMENT. PER LATEST IR IMAGERY AC & CUMULIFORM DEBRIS                  
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY & WITH SFC & 850-MB DEWPOINTS OF ~65F & ~15C                
RESPECTIVELY AIRMASS SHOULD QUICKLY DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPES                    
REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG...SO A FEW SVR TSRA POSSIBLE. ONLY CHANGE               
TO FORECAST WAS TO "UPGRADE" THE WX DESCRIPTOR FROM "TRW-" TO                   
"TRWM"...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL UPDATE TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH 18Z TO BETTER REPRESENT             
CURRENT TRENDS.                                                                 
PRECIP HAS REALLY DECREASED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE LAST                  
COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER BOTH THE 09Z RUC AND 06Z WRF/NAM ARE                   
CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SLN TO ICT BETWEEN 12Z               
AND 15Z. NOTICED THAT THE RUC ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWING AROUND                  
1500J/KG OF MU CAPE ALONG AND EAST OF I 135 ALONG WITH SOME WEAK                
700MB WARM ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ALONG THE 310K SURFACE. THEREFORE              
AM HESITANT TO YANK POPS OVER CENTRAL KS...BUT DID LOWER QUITE A BIT            
FROM ORIGINAL ZONE ISSUANCE.                                                    
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY             
AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.                              
TODAY-TONIGHT:                                                                  
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING A GOOD                  
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS I TYPE. LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER                   
WESTERN KS EARLIER THIS EVENING GENERATED AN MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY              
SITUATED NEAR GBD AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY.               
850MB FRONT WILL BE LINGERING AROUND THIS AREA PROVIDING SOME                   
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY              
PREDICATED ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER SE KS THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL             
STORM INITIATION WOULD BE LIKELY DOWN THERE IF SOME SUN WOULD BE                
POSSIBLE. IF TEMPS CAN GET TO AROUND 80 IN SE KS...THERE WOULD BE               
AROUND 2500-3000J/KG OF CAPE...WITH A GOOD PORTION OF BELOW 700MB.              
DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AREA CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.                     
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE               
DAY PROGRESSES SO ADJUST POPS IN GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. EVEN IF WE GET              
SOME SUN TODAY...SATURATED GROUNDS WILL NOT ALLOW TO MUCH OF A WARM             
UP...SO WENT WITH HIGHS A TAD BELOW GFS MOS.                                    
FOR TONIGHT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE REGIONS FOR STORM                 
DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL BE  SW KS/SE CO WHERE UPSLOPE WILL BE               
VERY PREVALENT TODAY. THE SECOND WOULD BE OVER EXTREME SE                       
KS/NORTHERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO ALONG FRONT AS LOW LEVEL JET PICKS               
UP. THEREFORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER SE KS.                        
FRI-SAT:                                                                        
BY FRI MORNING THERE SHOULD BE STORMS OVER ONGOING OVER WESTERN OK              
AND THE OZARKS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN               
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WITH THE THINKING THAT STORMS OVER SW KS               
MAY GENERATE ANOTHER...WEAKER...MCV. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON             
THIS PANNING OUT. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM                     
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WOULD BE OVER              
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NE/WY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AROUND THE WESTERN                 
PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH. WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE                 
WILL TO OUR WEST...WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL SET UP. IT WILL BE                
INTERESTING TO SEE IF STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR              
STORMS IN FOR FRI NIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS AND GO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE               
FOR SAT NIGHT AS STORM INITIATION MAY TAKE PLACE CLOSER TO HOME...IE            
NW KS.                                                                          
WITH SATURATED GROUNDS STILL IN PLACE...MUCH OF HEATING WILL GO                 
TOWARDS EVAPORATION...THUS KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK. SO WILL GO UNDER             
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS.                                  
SUN-WED:                                                                        
BOTH ECM AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER WAVE TO TRACK            
FROM WI AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUN. EVEN WITH              
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AREA...THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH                 
LIFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA TO GET PRECIP FOR                
SUN. WITH THIS WAVE TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MON...WILL SHUT            
PRECIP CHANCES AFTER SUN...EXPECTING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE. NW            
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MON-WED KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH            
NO SIGNIFICANT WARM-UPS ANTICIPATED.                                            
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    84  64  85  64 /  60  20  20  10                                
HUTCHINSON      84  63  86  64 /  60  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          84  64  85  64 /  70  30  20  10                                
ELDORADO        85  64  84  64 /  70  40  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  65  85  65 /  60  30  20  10                                
RUSSELL         82  62  87  63 /  40  20  10  20                                
GREAT BEND      83  62  87  63 /  40  20  10  20                                
SALINA          84  63  85  63 /  70  30  10  20                                
MCPHERSON       84  63  85  63 /  60  20  10  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     86  65  83  64 /  80  60  30  10                                
CHANUTE         84  65  84  62 /  90  70  20  10                                
IOLA            84  65  83  62 /  90  70  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    85  65  83  64 /  80  60  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
357 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN WHEN TO INTRODUCE PCPN            
CHANCES INTO FCST FRI-SUN.                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WRLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING A              
RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A TROF               
HAS AMPLIFIED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS A SHORTWAVE               
TRACKED THRU ONTARIO. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS              
CLEARED THE FCST AREA (JUST RECENTLY KMNM) AND IS INTRODUCING A                 
COOL/DRY AIRMASS INTO UPPER MI. 12Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF 3/0C            
AT KINL/CWPL WHICH ARE 8/10C LWR THAN THE 00Z READINGS. PRECIPITABLE            
WATER FROM BOTH SOUNDINGS WAS LOW AT AROUND 0.35 INCHES...WHICH IN              
THE CASE OF KINL IS 43PCT OF NORMAL. STRATUS/STRATOCU IN THE WAKE OF            
THE FRONT ARE ERODING FROM THE NW...AND IN FACT SKIES HAVE BEEN                 
CLEAR OVER THE KEWEENAW SINCE ABOUT 18Z.                                        
A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER UPPER              
MI. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE NOT            
CLEARED OUT YET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A BATCH OF CLOUDS TO THE NW                 
AROUND KINL THAT ARE NOT GENERATED BY DAYTIME HEATING. CANADIAN                 
RADARS EVEN SHOW ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE CLOUD AREA.                   
SPRINKLES WON'T SURVIVE THIS FAR E INTO THE DRY AIR...BUT SCT MID               
CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT               
PLAN ON THE CLOUDS REALLY AFFECTING COOLING TONIGHT (EVENING SHIFT              
WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE IF CLOUDS MAY BE A FACTOR TO KEEP              
TEMPS UP). WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW                    
PRECIPITABLE WATER (DEPICTED BY 12Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS TO ENHANCE              
RADIATIONAL COOLING)...TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET. GOING FCST HAS THIS                
COVERED WELL WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA            
AND AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. PROBABLY                 
WON'T QUITE BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE ANY FROST. 38F RECORD FOR THE 23RD            
AT THE OFFICE IS WITHIN REACH.                                                  
HIGH PRES JUST DRIFTS TO THE SE FRI. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY               
SKIES (MORE CLOUDS SW WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS INDICATED)...             
MIXING UPWARDS OF 750MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS              
AS HIGH AS 75F AT THE TOP END WHICH IS INLINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. NAM            
INDICATES MLCAPE INCREASING TO 400-600J/KG OVER THE FAR W (VCNTY OF             
KIWD) LATE IN THE AFTN WHILE GFS SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING TO                     
600-800J/KG. MODELS SEEM A BIT QUICK TO INCREASE THE BOUNDARY LAYER             
MOISTURE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY LATE AFTN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY             
CONSIDERING LACK OF FORCING. WILL ALSO STAY WITH A DRY FCST SAT                 
NIGHT DESPITE GFS CONTINUED INSISTENCE ON SOME PCPN ACROSS THE WRN              
FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER FORCING IS MEAGER AT BEST AS IS ISENTROPIC                
ASCENT/WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
TRACKS ESE TO THE SW OF UPPER MI.                                               
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS INDICTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY ON SAT AND INTO THE WRN LAKES ON SUN. THERE IS SOME                      
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR S THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WITH THE                       
CANADIAN/UKMET FARTHER S THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT THIS TIME RANGE...                
DIFFERENCE DOESN'T REALLY IMPACT FCST HERE SIGNIFICANTLY AS ALL THE             
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN WOULD STAY S OF FCST                
AREA WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BE GREATER. WILL BRING IN LOW               
CHC POPS SAT AFTN OVER THE SW/CNTRL AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF               
THE FCST AREA BY SUN AFTN.                                                      
MON THRU THU...THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT TODAY BTWN THE 00Z                    
UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS FOR THIS PERIOD. CHANGE THAT BEGAN TO SHOW             
UP IN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS CONTINUES WITH MANY OF THE 00Z MODELS                 
TODAY. ECWMF SHOWS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE LAST 2 RUNS (12Z/21 AND            
00Z/22). IT HAS THE SHORTWAVE THAT DROPS INTO THE WRN LAKES SUN                 
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AS A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST            
MON-THU AS MAIN FLOW ABANDONS IT BY SHIFTING WELL TO THE N. AFTER               
THE GFS (12Z/21 RUN) SHOWED SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE ECWMF                      
YESTERDAY...THE RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE GONE BACK TO THE PATTERN IT HAD            
BEEN SHOWING FOR SOME TIME (NAMELY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REESTABLISHING             
THE TROF FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD). THE            
00Z CANADIAN/UKMET LEND SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES            
GENERALLY SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE               
TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH TROFFING FROM HUDSON BAY             
TO THE GREAT LAKES. SO...WILL FAVOR SOMETHING ALONG THE LINES OF THE            
GFS GIVEN ITS OVERALL CONSISTENCY ON THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR               
THE LAST MANY RUNS AND SINCE IT STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE GOING FCST.               
SIMILAR TO THE DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DAY MON...            
ASSUMING THE SHORTWAVE FROM SUN SLIPS FAR ENOUGH S AND E. NEXT                  
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE AREA TUE...AND WILL            
THUS CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS MON NIGHT/TUE. WILL LEAVE WED DRY               
AND EXTEND INTO THU WITH NO CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF ANY SHORTWAVES            
APPROACHING THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...WNW/NW FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS               
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR UPPER MI WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO                
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
328 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ATTM WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR              
IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL                    
SPREAD INTO WI BY DAYBREAK WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE EASTERN CWA.              
ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS US THIS EVENING...          
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE FEW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO OUR NW                   
HAVE BEEN SHRINKING AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BEST LAYER MOISTURE                 
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARE PROGGED BY THE RUC TO PASS JUST NORTH              
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. EVENING CREW CAN HANDLE A SHOWER OR TWO                
WITH A NOW. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE                
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE NAM HAS THE BEST                
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A SOUTHWARD                      
DISPLACEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. AFTER                 
SEEING THE 09Z SREF...SIDED MORE WITH THE NAM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND              
SATURDAY. RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT OVER WEST CENTRAL AREAS LATE                
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD THE 50 POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST                
CENTRAL MN ON SATURDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS SEEN              
ON THE NAM ALONG WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LAYER                      
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN 850-300MB THICKNESS                 
RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE MN CWA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COINCIDES                
WELL WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.               
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT COULD BE INTERESTING IF WE CAN RECOVER FROM              
THE EXPECTED DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. THIS IS DUE TO A SURFACE WAVE               
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. SHEAR PARAMETERS FORECAST               
BY THE NAM ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THE                     
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. BUT AGAIN...MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON WHAT               
HAPPENS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS. MINOR                   
CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING LOW/HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.                         
.LONGER TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                    
HAVE ACCEPTED GFS40 GUIDANCE AS MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO ITS RECENT               
DEPICTION OF LAST TWO COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. FORECAST PERIOD                  
BEGINS WITH EXITING OF 50H SHORT WAVE OVER SE CWA. HAVE KEPT SLT                
POPS OVER EXTREME SE PORTION OF CWA DUE TO WEAK FORCING PER 305K                
ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND POSSIBILITY COOL FRONT MAY BE SLOWER THEN                
ANTICIPATED DUE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC                
STATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE UNTIL TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER FAST               
MOVING RATHER MOISTURE LIMITED COOL FRONT DIVES INTO CENTRAL MN                 
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AN IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE COUPLET DOES                    
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MN THIS TIME FRAME. DP/DT INDICATING                  
MOISTURE AXIS A TAD FARTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS RUN. RIGHT REAR                 
QUAD OF 250MB JET MAX PROGGED OVER SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE EVENING              
HOURS ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SEEN THEREAFTER...WITH                    
TEMPERATURES THROTTLED BACK AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY DURING REMAINDER              
OF EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION                 
AND PERSISTENT CLOSED 50H LOW ORBITING JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/AZ                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
430 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MCV LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION OVER KS REFIRED RATHER                
QUICKLY BY MID MORNING OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ORGANIZED INTO            
ANOTHER MCS. THIS FEATURE IS NOW JUST NORTH OF SZL. CURRENT                     
CONVECTION OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD EXIT THE CWA IN ANOTHER             
1-2 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS ALLOWING AT                 
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN IT WAKE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE                
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO TRUE COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH WITH A                    
BOUNDARY STILL LYING FROM SOUTHEAST NE THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND                   
ANOTHER BOUNDARY FROM EAST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST KS. THIS LATTER            
BOUNDARY WILL GUIDE ANOTHER MCS WHICH IS ONGOING OVER NORTHWEST KS.             
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THE               
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAY AND A LACK OF DRYING WITH              
LIGHT WINDS SUGGEST FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT. SO                
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.                                                
MINOR COOLING AT 850MB FOR TOMORROW AND HAVE FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE              
WHICH GIVES US SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.                                           
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO A PATTERN CHANGE STARTING TOMORROW             
NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE ROCKIES WHILE GENERAL               
TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...LEAVING US IN A NORTHWEST                
FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY TRYING TO TIME ANY SHORTWAVES            
COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT             
5-7 DAYS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ONE SHORTWAVE AND            
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY                  
MORNING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS FOR PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS.                  
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER            
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS NOT                    
FOLLOWED AS IT HAS HAD SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES. UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF            
YEAR TO SEE THE ATMOSPHERE CLOSE OFF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THEN STALL             
IT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAKE             
ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES.                                                  
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
318 AM...                                                                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24              
HOURS. OVERALL UPPER PATTERN SHOWS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR                
HUDSON BAY AREA...WHILE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAKER               
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AT THIS TIME. ALSO EMBEDDED IN THIS             
FLOW ARE MCV TYPE CIRCULATIONS THAT ARE THE RESULT OF ONGOING                   
CONVECTION. ONE OF THESE MCV CIRCULATIONS IS MOVING ALONG THE IOWA              
MISSOURI BORDER AT THIS TIME...AND ANOTHER IS NOTED IN EAST CENTRAL             
KANSAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO THIS MORNING...WE            
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG JET MAX OVER NORTHERN              
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN                    
NEBRASKA. WRF/NAM MODEL HAS THIS UPPER JET INCREASING TO AROUND 100             
KTS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. NORTHERN             
MISSOURI WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS JET THIS                        
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THUS             
WILL PULL CATEGORICAL POPS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH FOR THE                
MORNING HOURS...IN AREA WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES.               
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MCS COMPLEX THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE                   
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE             
UPSWING ONCE AGAIN AFTER DIMINISHING SOME THIS MORNING. WRF/NAM                 
MODEL IS SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI               
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE COLD POOL EFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE               
REMAINING AFTER MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIES DOWN A BIT.                  
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD BE RUNNING FROM              
JUST SOUTH OF ST LOUIS...INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND HEAVIER RAIN               
SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL PULL               
CATEGORICAL POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP THEM IN LINE            
WITH THIS EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.                                            
ALL THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS             
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORT              
WAVE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON               
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RETURN DRIER WEATHER TO NORTHERN MISSOURI.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND                   
PRECIPITATION.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE STAYED UNSEASONABLY                 
WARM...WITH ONLY THE RAIN COOLING OFF SOME AREA. RAIN SHOULD DROP               
TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT SOME POINT THIS                    
MORNING...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY              
STAYING PRETTY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BUT RAIN MOVING INTO             
THOSE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP ANY BIG WARM UP FROM                 
OCCURRING. SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGES AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR               
TODAY.                                                                          
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
541 PM CDT WED...                                                               
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEGUN IN THE VICINITY OF CONCORDIA KS                 
WHERE 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK             
LOW CENTER. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE             
MAXIMIZED ALONG A GENERAL SW-NE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS               
DRAPED FROM FAR NRN MO INTO SW KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY                    
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF MUCH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE                    
REGIONWIDE...NOTED BY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH HAS LOCALLY BEGUN TO             
CONGEAL AND TOWER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.                                          
12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING AND RUC/NAM-WRF PROGS SHOW THAT VERY STEEP MID              
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION BENEATH A NARROW                
PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAKING NNE FROM PERSISTENT                      
CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED            
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS               
TIME.                                                                           
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN KS/NRN MO WILL DECOUPLE                    
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR AIDED BY AN INCREASING             
NOCTURNAL JET...ALONG WITH AMBIENT INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED LOW-MID            
LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD ALLOW CURRENTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO                  
STEADILY GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL                   
TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BACK BUILD...HOWEVER GENEROUS DCAPE VALUES               
AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE AND                 
FORWARD PROPAGATION...BRINGING AN EXPECTED MCS INTO THE AREA AROUND             
MIDNIGHT. THINK THE NAM-WRF HAS GENERAL HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE                    
EVOLUTION...BUT LIKELY MUCH TOO SLOW ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION.               
ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE MATURITY OF THE MCS...WITH                 
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR             
LARGE HAIL GIVEN ENHANCED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AREA OF CONCERN AT              
THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE                 
KANSAS CITY METRO TO TRENTON.                                                   
AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE BEST                
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR WRN MO/ERN KS IN                 
QUITE SOME TIME.                                                                
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
325 PM...                                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE TIED TO A WEAK FRONT                    
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST IA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER             
OF MO THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS. THE KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED            
LITTLE OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE AREA OF MOST               
IMPORTANCE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE                         
IA/NORTHWEST MO PORTION OF THE FRONT IS PASSING BY...SO THE FRONT               
WILL STALL AS IT CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MO. PLENTY OF CU HAS FORMED              
ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING MUCH MORE DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE             
FIELD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKENING ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPECT            
CONVECTION TO FORM SOON FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS.                         
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT            
OF CO THIS EVENING AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS KS. NAM-WRF IS FURTHER              
NORTH THAN THE GFS WHILE THE CANADIAN SHOWS TWO CENTERS BY 12Z                  
THURSDAY WHILE THE UKMET IS AT ABOUT THE SAME LATITUDE BUT A BIT                
FASTER. FAVOR THE NAM/UKMET SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INITIATING THIS            
EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS FRONT AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST INTO               
NORTHWEST MO LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE                   
RESULTING COLD POOLS WILL SHIFT THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SOUTH WITH                  
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE KC METRO BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE             
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER KS ON THURSDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME                     
BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION EVEN IF THE MCS MOVES AWAY FROM THE CWA              
IN THE MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY OVER            
A LARGE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES DUE TO              
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED STORMS. AM                    
STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT AND MORE OF A HYDRO            
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH A SLOW             
MOVING BOUNDARY AND STRONG SHORTWAVE. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RATHER                
WEAK                                                                            
WITH 850MB WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT FAVORING                  
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.                        
MJ                                                                              
UPPER LVL TROUGH LIFTS NE OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST             
AREA TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT             
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN              
MISSOURI THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY            
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT               
LAKES BUILDS INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS.                                  
WEBBER                                                                          
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT FOR THE              
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO             
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA WHILE UPPER RIDGING SETS UP              
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA                  
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING               
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO             
THE AREA DURING THE DAYS 4 TO 7 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT REMAINS                  
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT                       
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ONE SUCH POSSIBLE                      
DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SEASONABLY                
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.            
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
305 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
TONIGHT: HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY ON TARGET THIS                      
AFTERNOON... TOPPING OUT IN THE 100-103 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.            
SCATTERED STORMS POPPED UP EARLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS              
ALONG A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOUNDARY                
LAYER FLOW HAS BEEN DIFFLUENT TO THE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN              
NC... AND THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HOLDING JUST              
NORTHWEST OF THE RAH CWA INTO THE EVENING. LAPS FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
HOWEVER STILL INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN... ALTHOUGH WITH            
A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD... ANY CELLS SHOULD GO UP AND DOWN QUICKLY.              
WILL HOLD ONTO A MENTION OF SCATTERED STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CWA               
THIS EVENING. GROUND MAY HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY TODAY TO MINIMIZE              
WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.            
WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE... ABOUT 68-70.               
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST            
ON FRIDAY THEN REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS            
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT STALLS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...            
PLACING NC IN A PATTERN OF INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH            
THE WEEKEND... PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE            
INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR NORTH              
WILL BE AUGMENTED BY A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE SE TO S FLOW.            
ALSO TO BE CONSIDERED IS THE WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT                 
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE THE                
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FORECAST                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL RISING TO 3-4             
KM... AN INDICATOR OF GOOD PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. HAVE GONE WITH             
HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... PRIMARILY DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND WILL PROBABLY NEED LIKELY POPS AT SOME             
POINT ONCE WE ARE BETTER ABLE TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING. AS MOISTURE               
DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH              
THE PERIOD... THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD SHOULD NARROW... WITH              
INITIAL LOWS GOING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO 70-73 AND HIGHS DROPPING               
INTO THE LOW-MID 80S BY SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A             
FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK STATEMENT FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FOR               
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
WEAK BOUNDARIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH HIGH                  
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED               
WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT             
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH                 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...AND AROUND 90                
THURSDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER             
70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.  -RHJ                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT SOUTHWEST                
WINDS OVER THE TAF AREA...RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS UNTIL DARK.            
OTHERWISE CEILINGS UNLIMITED AND VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED. AFTER 09Z             
FRIDAY MORNING VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO 5 MILES IN HAZE              
AND FOG. EXCEPT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FAY TO RWI 09Z              
TO 12Z.  -RHJ                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...RHJ                                                                 
AVIATION...RHJ                                                                  
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