AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
357 AM MDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
CURRENTLY...06Z TEMPERATURES WERE ROUGHLY 1-3 DEGREES FROM WHERE                
THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. OLD PESKY UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE            
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO                      
YESTERDAY. STILL HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND             
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. RELATIVELY FLAT WEST                 
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES ANIMATION. HARD              
PRESSED TO FIND THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION               
TODAY...SO IT COULD BE A CRAP SHOOT IF AND WHERE THINGS FORM TODAY.             
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HINTS OF A H3-H2 POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE MOVING            
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD HELP                  
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE                   
PROGGED TO BE 200 - 1200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -4C. THE             
GREATEST INSTABILITY MAY LIE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR                
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT SURFACE BASED CAPES COULD            
BE AROUND 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS NEAR WALSENBURG               
AND TRINIDAD. VERY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR...0-6KM AROUND 30-35                 
KTS...SO COULD NOT RULE OUT A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING            
AROUND PENNY SIZE HAIL...BUT PRIMARILY THE THREAT WOULD BE                      
PEA-MARBLE. PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT DOWNDRAFT CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE             
1K-1.5K J/KG...SO THERE COULD BE MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR              
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN LUIS               
VALLEY...SOUNDING INVERTED-V THERMAL STRUCTURES SUPPORT MAINLY GUSTY            
WINDS...MAYBE SOME PEA SIZE HAIL...AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.                   
ACTUALLY...NO THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED IN THIS AREA YESTERDAY PER POST            
RADAR/LIGHTNING ANALYSES AND THAT COULD VERY HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY.                
MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE AROUND SUNSET WITH              
DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST            
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MOS                          
GUIDANCE. METZE                                                                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW                  
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY SENDING ANOTHER REINFORCING NORTHERLY            
SURGE THROUGH THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.                 
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AIR MASS MODERATES SOME ACROSS THE             
SE PLAINS.  WITH EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE MID            
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND LESS OF A CAP                
ALOFT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH               
DAY THROUGH MONDAY.  THOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT DOESN/T APPEAR OVERLY                 
IMPRESSIVE...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS EVIDENT IN H2-H3 POTENTIAL                
VORTICITY FIELDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. SOME MID/HIGH         
LVL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS WRN AREAS FOR SUN...WHICH                
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR                         
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN AREAS AS WELL...ESP ON SUN.  AS FOR                    
THUNDERSTORM THREATS...MAINLY GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND SOME                
LOCALIZED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN AREAS. ACROSS      
THE EAST...ENOUGH CAPE PRESENT (RANGING FROM 700 TO 1400 J/KG                   
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS) AND DEEP                
LAYER SHEARS (AROUND 30-40KTS) TO SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE               
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE                    
PLAINS...MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTNS TO THE I-25                
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
WRN US UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE US ROCKIES FOR                  
TUES...BRINGING DRIER AND MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS TO THE REGION.  HIGH           
TEMPS SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WITH 80S            
HIGH VALLEYS...AND 60S/70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THUS...MELTING OF                
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW PACK SHOULD PEAK AGAIN BY MID WEEK.                       
00Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION FROM PAST FEW                    
RUNS...WITH NEXT OPEN TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN US ROCKIES ON WED.             
THEN GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SUGGEST A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR LATE IN           
THE WEEK WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE                
NEXT FAST MOVING UPPER TROF WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN US ROCKIES               
BY FRI. THUS SHOULD SEE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH                      
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS (THOUGH STILL ABOVE                        
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS) FOR THURS AND FRI. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND               
DAY 5. -KT                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED VFR THUNDERSTORMS            
NEAR COS AND PUB FLIGHT ZONES BETWEEN 18Z/02 - 03Z/03. ERRATIC WINDS            
AND PEA-MARBLE SIZE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEAR COS/PUB            
AIRPORTS. FOR THE ALS FLIGHT ZONES...ISOLATED VFR THUNDERSTORMS                 
COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z/02 - 03Z/03 WITH THE ERRATIC WINDS THE MAIN             
THREAT. METZE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/31                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
841 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IS RESULTING IN               
SCATTERED (SOME SEVERE) AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TODAY. LOW                 
PRESSURE...EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF BARRY...WILL MOVE UP THE                  
EAST COAST REACHING OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HEAVY                 
RAIN AND HIGH SURF ARE THREATS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS                
LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY.                       
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MORE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED               
BY THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS                   
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE               
HIGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AS SCATTERED               
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO DAY TIME HEATING.                            
LATEST LAPS AND RUC CONVECTIVE ANALYZES (CAPE/LIFTED INDEX)                     
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN INLAND. THIS                
WAS THE REASON FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH               
MEAN FLOW BASICALLY WEST TO EAST TODAY...MARINE ENVIRONMENT                     
PREVENTS CONVECTION FROM REACHING/DEVELOPING ON LONG ISLAND AND                 
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE CITY.                                              
CONVECTION DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.                                     
MOS NUMBERS USED FOR MIN TEMPS WITH DEWS IN THE MID 60S...UNIFORM               
TEMPS HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF NY CITY HEAT ISLAND. HAVE                
FORECAST PATCHY FOG IN THE AM (EXCEPT NYC) AND WATERS. EXPECTING                
SOME 3-5 SM VSBY IN HAZE/BR AS TEMPS LOWER TO NEAR SATURATION.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF TD BARRY MOVE UP THE COAST AS HAS BEEN               
ANTICIPATED FOR SOME TIME. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINOR               
VARIATIONS ON TIMING AND TRACK. NCEP NAM IS FASTER THAN GFS ABOUT 6             
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THIS...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO MAKE IT`S                     
PRESENCE KNOWN SOONER THAN LATER. THICKENING CIRRUS NOW                         
APPROACHING DC IS HERE BY MORNING AND EXPECTING A CLOUDY SUNDAY                 
OVERALL AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER. RAIN SHIELD EXPANDS TO THE                 
NORTH WITH BAROCLINIC BAND SEEN NORTH OF THE LOW (OVER-RUNNING).                
EXPECTING THE RAIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET.                   
THIS RAIN IS WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE.                                      
LOWER TEMPS USED FOR SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUDINESS. CLOSE                
TO FWC GUIDANCE.                                                                
LOW LEVEL STABILITY PREVENTS GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ON LAND. WINDS               
SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEADY AT 20 TO 25 MPH TOMORROW EVENING WITH                   
GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS IS ALL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.                
LOW GRADUALLY PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WITH A MORE                      
SHOWERY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION.                                                  
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON RAINFALL.                               
HIGH SURF IS ALSO A HAZARD (TOO EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY YET) WITH 10              
TO 12 FT SEAS OFF SHORE RESULTING IN RIP TIDES AND AT LEAST SOME                
BEACH EROSION FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES ON LONG ISLAND.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DOMINATES TO START AS COASTAL LOW                
IS ABSORBED IN TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE              
SYNOPTIC CANADIAN LOW DRIVES A COLD FRONT THOUGHT THE REGION ON                 
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.                                              
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION             
DUE TO DYNAMICAL FORCING THOUGH WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS RATHER WEAK               
BASED ON GFS WIND PROFILE.                                                      
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND MID 70              
TEMPS.                                                                          
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH RETROGRADES WEST ACROSS CANADA WHICH BREAKS                
DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK ALLOWING FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE                  
WESTERN U.S.  THIS RESULTS IN SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND WARMING TREND              
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST. 12Z GFS SUGGESTION PCPN                 
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP IT DRY AND FLOW HPC               
GUIDANCE ON THIS. EXPECT A RETURN OF HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY AND TEMPS A             
GOOD 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CHANCE FOR                      
AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION WITH RETURN OF MT AIRMASS.                              
SHORT WAVE IN THE GREAT LAKES COULD DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE                  
REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT BELIEVE THAT WITH WOULD BE WEAK BASED ON               
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. PCPN IN 12Z GFS FOR SATURDAY EVENING IS FROM               
MODEL CONVECTIVE BOMB OVER ILLINOIS AND IS LIKELY ERRONEOUS OR WILL             
DISSIPATE LONG BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SEEMS TO HAVE                     
CEASED...ALTHOUGH A LINE STILL EXISTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS                       
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. THIS LINE IS MOVING IN A               
EASTERLY DIRECTION AND SHOULD NOT POSE A THREAT TO ANY OF THE                   
TERMINALS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A CELL POP UP FROM ANY                 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERSECTING EACH OTHER OR EVEN WITH THE                     
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS                    
OCCURRING IS RATHER SMALL SO HAVE REMOVED ALL CB APPENDAGES IN THE              
00Z TAFS. OTHER THAN SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS CIGS WILL REMAIN              
VFR. PLAYING THE PERSISTENCE GAME WITH VSBYS HOWEVER...WHICH WITH               
NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT...WILL             
LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY (POSSIBLY ISOLATED IFR) IN                   
HZ/BR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT              
VLIFR STRATUS AT KGON OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND WITH DEWPOINTS                 
CLOSE TO WATER TEMPS...THINK IT IS A POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE                      
INCLUDED IT AS A TEMPO BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.                                     
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DROP DOWN TONIGHT AND               
SUN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE REMNANTS OF BARRY...CURRENTLY OVER THE               
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH CLOUDS                  
LOWERING AND THICKENING ON SUN. THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SHOULD                
BE ABLE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN AND                  
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM S TO N                 
JUST BEFORE 00Z.                                                                
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS REMNANTS              
OF BARRY MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.                   
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MVFR                
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL                
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVE WITH SCT TSTMS AND LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR               
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND                        
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
BUOY OBS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY WITH 3 FT            
SEAS. THE 12Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVER FORECAST SHOWING             
4 TO 5 FT SEAS INITIALLY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE WNA GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT            
INTO MON AND HELD SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD.               
PERSISTENT SW FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY SUN THEN SE LATE IN            
THE DAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS BY SUN                 
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON                 
SUN...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT WILL BE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN                
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON PERIOD.                                              
REMNANTS OF BARRY APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON               
MON. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL              
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. FOLLOWED THE SLOWER GFS SOLN WHICH IS             
CLOSE TO THE 09Z SREF AND THE LATEST NHC TRACK OF THE EXTRATROPICAL             
SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS THE LOW CENTER ACROSS LONG ISLAND MON AFTERNOON.            
EXPECT A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS SUN                 
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH A STRONG LOW            
LEVEL JET AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE POSTED GALES ON THE OCEAN             
ZONES FROM 00Z-14Z MON...AND SCA FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD ON THE                
SOUND/HARBOR AND BAYS.                                                          
LOW MOVES AWAY MON NIGHT WITH MDT W FLOW BECOMING SW IN ITS                     
WAKE...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT             
MOVES OFFSHORE TURNING THE WINDS TO WEST TUE NIGHT...THEN QUIET WX              
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE              
REGION.                                                                         
FOLLOWED WNA GUIDANCE FOR SEA FCST SUN NIGHT AND BEYOND WITH THE LOW            
PASSAGE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN ON MON.             
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED                 
AFTER THE LOW PASSES...AS WNA GUIDANCE INDICATES IT COULD BE                    
SOMETIME WED BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNT IN CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR THIS                     
EVENING.                                                                        
MAIN EVENT IS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD                     
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE STRATIFORM NATURE OF THIS                             
PRECIPITATION...DO NOT FORESEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. THUS               
THERE IS NOT FLOOD WATCH BEING ISSUED. WOULD EXPECT SOME PONDING                
THAT COULD PROMPT SOME SHORT FUSED FLOOD ADVISORIES.                            
ANOTHER LOCALIZED 0.5 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES              
INTO NEW ENGLAND.                                                               
MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE FAST              
MOVING. LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS IN POSSIBLE TRAINING OF                   
CONVECTIVE CELLS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAY             
NIGHT AND MIDDAY MONDAY...DUE TO A PERIOD OF STRONG E/NE WINDS AS               
THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES. HOWEVER..IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY                 
LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AS WE MOVE AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON OF MAY            
31...AND FORTUNATE TIMING OF THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL PREVENT MORE             
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. THE HIGHER OF THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCURS               
LATE SUN EVENING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY FETCH             
WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH DURATION UP TO THAT POINT TO PRODUCE THE 1.5 TO            
2 FOOT DEPARTURES NEEDED TO REACH MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. GFS                
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THESE DEPARTURES BEING REACHED BY EARLY TUE                  
MORNING...BUT ASTRO TIDES WILL BE GOING OUT BY THAT TIME. THERE IS              
SOME CHANCE THAT WATER LEVELS WILL RISE FASTER THAN FCST AND CAUSE              
MINOR FLOODING IN WRN LI SOUND AND THE USUAL SUSPECT LOCATIONS SUCH             
AS FREEPORT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...BUT THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY               
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MODERATE FLOODING ON SUN NIGHT WOULD REQUIRE             
2.5 TO 3.5 FOOT DEPARTURES WHICH APPEAR VERY UNLIKELY.                          
FOR MIDDAY MONDAY...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE ABOUT A FOOT            
LOWER...REQUIRING AROUND 2.5 FOOT DEPARTURES FOR MINOR FLOODING.                
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG STRONG E/NE FLOW CONTINUES AS THE LOW                     
APPROACHES LONG ISLAND...SUCH DEPARTURES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE               
WRN SOUND AND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS. MODERATE FLOODING ON MON WOULD             
REQUIRE 3.5 TO 4 FOOT DEPARTURES WHICH AGAIN APPEAR VERY UNLIKELY.              
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR          
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.                                                    
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-              
     353-355.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
850 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 847 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS                 
STILL THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS.                 
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DESPITE THE                      
WEAKENING INSTABILITY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING ACROSS                
IOWA. WE MAY SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN OUR CWA                
AS WELL...SO I LEFT THAT IN THE GRIDS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD                       
DECREASE AS MORNING APPROACHES. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND               
A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...DUE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH                     
DAYTIME HEATING. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE FARTHER EAST...BUT WE              
WILL STILL SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON.                    
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007 FOR THE 00Z TAFS                               
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH ON               
RUC SOUNDINGS TO KEEP A VCTS THROUGH 03-04Z. STORMS LINGERED A                  
LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT LAST NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON                     
UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES. CIGS AND VIS READINGS                
SHOULD REMAIN VFR...WITH ONLY A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR                       
POSSIBLE. NON OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH IN                 
ONE PLACE TO WARRANT PUTTING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.                
FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT...AS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE            
TOWARD MORNING.                                                                 
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 209 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                
MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE LOW POPS OVER THE                 
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY OPENS UP AND MOVES                 
AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE LONGER-TERM...EMPHASIS WILL BE ON EVOLVING         
UPPER AIR PATTERN...AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY THE END                
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST                 
WISCONSIN...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO WEST-CENTRAL              
INDIANA. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK TROUGH/WIND-SHIFT LINE IS EVIDENT                
ACROSS IOWA. ALOFT...STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN                
CONUS...WHILE PERSISTENT LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FINALLY                  
GETTING A NUDGE EASTWARD.                                                       
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                          
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT                
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY FADE AWAY ONCE DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS                   
LOST. BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR                     
NORTHERN KILX CWA...ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO MINONK                       
LINE...AIDED BY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. WILL GO WITH                        
SCT/ISOLATED WORDING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN               
ZONES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.                            
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP ACROSS                  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY...AS UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT              
LAKES. BASED ON ORIENTATION OF UPPER COLD POOL...BEST AREAL                     
COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE E/NE CWA. WILL AGAIN GO                 
WITH SCT WORDING FOR MONDAY...WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE E/NE                      
TAPERING TO 30S ACROSS THE FAR W. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER                    
AROUND...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN               
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.                                                        
THE WEATHER BEGINS TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER WITH NORTHWEST               
FLOW CONTINUING...COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM                      
DEVELOPING DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. BASED ON SCANT PRECIP                    
COVERAGE ON RECENT MORE FAVORABLE DAYS...WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY                
SLIGHT CHC POPS. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO                          
RISE...MARKING THE RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.                  
BOTH NAM-WRF AND GFS DEVELOP WAA TYPE PRECIP WEDNESDAY AND                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE                
AREA. THINK BOTH MODELS ARE WAY OVERDONE WITH THEIR QPF                         
FIELDS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM-WRF...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THINGS                
DRY AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN              
CWA WEDNESDAY...BUT THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL STAY ALONG AND WEST OF               
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE 12Z GFS                     
SOLUTION.                                                                       
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER                   
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM REMAINS                    
LARGELY WEST OF THE REGION. BASED ON LOW-LEVEL THERMAL                          
PROFILES...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
AND EASTERN CWA. WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE WEST...DUE TO               
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL                 
PROGGED TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT                
WITH UPPER SUPPORT TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES...AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED                 
POPS SLIGHTLY TO FEATURE A 30 PERCENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE                  
PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON AREAS...WITH DRY WEATHER FURTHER SOUTH.                  
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED...WITH                 
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES APPEARING IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. MODEL                  
CONSENSUS DROPS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON                       
FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS IT SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL                 
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...PERHAPS DRYING OUT               
BY SUNDAY. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE PUSHING THE                 
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOO AGGRESSIVELY...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE                    
STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.                 
WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS LOOK LIKE BEFORE                 
EXTENDING LOW POPS INTO SUNDAY.                                                 
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
631 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 209 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                
MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE LOW POPS OVER THE                 
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY OPENS UP AND MOVES                 
AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE LONGER-TERM...EMPHASIS WILL BE ON EVOLVING         
UPPER AIR PATTERN...AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY THE END                
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST                 
WISCONSIN...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO WEST-CENTRAL              
INDIANA. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK TROUGH/WIND-SHIFT LINE IS EVIDENT                
ACROSS IOWA. ALOFT...STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN                
CONUS...WHILE PERSISTENT LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FINALLY                  
GETTING A NUDGE EASTWARD.                                                       
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                          
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT                
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY FADE AWAY ONCE DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS                   
LOST. BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR                     
NORTHERN KILX CWA...ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO MINONK                       
LINE...AIDED BY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. WILL GO WITH                        
SCT/ISOLATED WORDING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN               
ZONES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.                            
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP ACROSS                  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY...AS UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT              
LAKES. BASED ON ORIENTATION OF UPPER COLD POOL...BEST AREAL                     
COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE E/NE CWA. WILL AGAIN GO                 
WITH SCT WORDING FOR MONDAY...WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE E/NE                      
TAPERING TO 30S ACROSS THE FAR W. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER                    
AROUND...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN               
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.                                                        
THE WEATHER BEGINS TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER WITH NORTHWEST               
FLOW CONTINUING...COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM                      
DEVELOPING DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. BASED ON SCANT PRECIP                    
COVERAGE ON RECENT MORE FAVORABLE DAYS...WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY                
SLIGHT CHC POPS. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO                          
RISE...MARKING THE RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.                  
BOTH NAM-WRF AND GFS DEVELOP WAA TYPE PRECIP WEDNESDAY AND                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE                
AREA. THINK BOTH MODELS ARE WAY OVERDONE WITH THEIR QPF                         
FIELDS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM-WRF...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THINGS                
DRY AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN              
CWA WEDNESDAY...BUT THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL STAY ALONG AND WEST OF               
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE 12Z GFS                     
SOLUTION.                                                                       
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER                   
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM REMAINS                    
LARGELY WEST OF THE REGION. BASED ON LOW-LEVEL THERMAL                          
PROFILES...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
AND EASTERN CWA. WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE WEST...DUE TO               
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL                 
PROGGED TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT                
WITH UPPER SUPPORT TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES...AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED                 
POPS SLIGHTLY TO FEATURE A 30 PERCENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE                  
PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON AREAS...WITH DRY WEATHER FURTHER SOUTH.                  
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED...WITH                 
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES APPEARING IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. MODEL                  
CONSENSUS DROPS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON                       
FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS IT SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL                 
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...PERHAPS DRYING OUT               
BY SUNDAY. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE PUSHING THE                 
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOO AGGRESSIVELY...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE                    
STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.                 
WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS LOOK LIKE BEFORE                 
EXTENDING LOW POPS INTO SUNDAY.                                                 
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007 FOR THE 00Z TAFS                               
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH ON               
RUC SOUNDINGS TO KEEP A VCTS THROUGH 03-04Z. STORMS LINGERED A                  
LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT LAST NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON                     
UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES. CIGS AND VIS READINGS                
SHOULD REMAIN VFR...WITH ONLY A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR                       
POSSIBLE. NON OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH IN                 
ONE PLACE TO WARRANT PUTTING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.                
FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT...AS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE            
TOWARD MORNING.                                                                 
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SEVERAL N-S ORIENTED LINES OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN INDIANA             
EARLY THIS AFTN. ONE LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH FWA AND CONTG             
TO DVLP TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONT TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT            
1-2HRS. VISIBLE STLT INDICATES A SMALL CLEAR SLOT WEST OF SBN WHICH             
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL             
AFFECT SBN THIS AFTN. CDFNT OVER ERN IL SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN                  
INDIANA THIS EVE, SHIFTING WINDS TO WEST AND DECREASING CONVECTION.             
SECONDARY CDFNT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN             
WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED AS THIS MOVES             
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR MORE             
LIKELY JUST BEYOND, SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND                  
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON              
TRACK PRECIP WISE...GIVEN AMPLE FORCING AVAILABLE FROM H5 VORTEX.               
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS 20 TO 30 KNOT LL JET IN PLACE ACROSS                   
WESTERN IN/EASTERN IL PER VWP/PROFILER/RUC ANALYSIS. THIS FEATURE               
COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL MID LEVEL WAVE HAS ALLOWED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM            
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE                            
INTENSITY...WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE            
SHOWERS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD               
INTO WESTERN ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING               
TREND AS LL JET WEAKENS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE MAINLY            
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.                        
PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO SFC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WRF AND               
GFS BOTH INDICATE GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT                
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE BROAD LIFT FROM H5 VORTEX WILL INCREASE               
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL DRY IN PLACE UPSTREAM                
GIVEN 00Z DVN SOUNDING. BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE HOW MUCH DAYTIME              
HEATING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS FA BEFORE GOOD DYNAMICS FALL IN PLACE.              
SUNSHINE MAY BE LACKING TODAY DUE TO RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM                  
CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS             
TODAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD COOLER SOLUTION IN FORECAST...GIVEN                  
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IF SUNSHINE DOES BREAK               
OUT...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES WOULD EASILY CLIMB TO AOR 1500 J/KG.                
DEEP SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET                 
STREAK ADVECTS INTO THE REGION...PRODUCING DEEP SHEAR VALUES AROUND             
30-35 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES. BOTTOM LINE...IF GOOD                
HEATING DOES OCCUR...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...NOT             
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND               
AND LARGE HAIL.                                                                 
AGAIN HIGHS TODAY WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. CURRENT            
TEMPS IN GRIDS REFLECT PARTIAL CLEARING. TEMPS COULD EASILY SWAY                
5-7 DEGREES EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF ISOLATION.                        
RAIN SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE                              
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. DRY SLOT WITH                  
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LEAD WAVE MAY CLEAR OUT SOUTHERN ZONES...HENCE                
HAVE LEFT LOWER POPS THERE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FA                    
TONIGHT. AMPLE LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH EXPECTED RAIN COMBINED                 
WITH THIS COOLER AIR MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG. HAVE NOT WORDED IN               
FORECAST YET...AS THERE IS QUESTIONS ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                                         
UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY BEFORE                
OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT ON TUESDAY. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES             
UNDER CIRCULATION MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT                 
WAVES SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE             
DAY. BUMPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. MODELS LINGER MOISTURE WITH              
SURFACE FRONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT SO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS                
PERIOD. LOW BEGINS TO EXIT ON TUE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON               
BACK SIDE. PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED POPS FOR TUE SO WILL CONTINUE THOUGH            
DRYING WORKING IN QUICKLY. MODELS MAY STILL BE A TAD FAST LIFTING               
LOW OUT. TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. CUT TEMPS             
SEVERAL DEGREES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST WITH UPPER LOW OVER            
AREA AND FLOW INCREASING OFF OF COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN. NAM12 2M TEMPS            
STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET OUT OF THE 50S. HAVE DROPPED TO MID 60S CLOSER             
TO COOLER MOS FOR NOW. WILL ALSO MENTION RIP CURRENTS FOR LAKE                  
MICHIGAN IN HWO FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS              
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASING WAVES.                                       
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR WED BEFORE RETURN FLOW                  
QUICKLY SETS UP AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. KEPT THIS               
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AS MODELS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE.                         
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT AND TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC                    
ZONE...WOULD EXPECT SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW              
LEVEL JET. BEST FOCUS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT                
WILL MONITOR. THURSDAY STILL LOOKING VERY WARM AND CONTINUED TO STAY            
ABOVE MEX MOS AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES. ECMWF VERY WARM              
WITH +20C AT 850MB. HAVE DOUBTS AS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GIVEN                
VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF TRIGGER TIL LATER IN THE DAY OR THU             
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY IN TIMING               
AND GENERAL SOLUTIONS SO NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. UNCERTAINTY                   
CONTINUES REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON FRONTAL                
POSITION AND MOVEMENT SO NO CHANGES.                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JT/LF                                                                
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM....LASHLEY                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
642 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LINE OF TSRA MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AND EXITING IMMEDIATE KSBN AREA             
AT ISSUANCE. WATCHING REDEVELOPMENT NEAR MONTICELLO AND ROCHESTER               
THAT WILL MOVE NORTH AND BACK INTO KSBN IN A FEW HOURS. KFWA QUIET              
FOR NOW BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN UNSTABLE                
ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR. HAVE KEPT A             
VCSH OR VCTS IN TAFS MOST OF DAY. WENT OPTIMISTIC OVERNIGHT WITH NO             
MENTION BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AFTERNOON TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE                  
INCLUSION OF SHRA OR TSRA THIS EVENING. ALSO KEPT BR OUT OF TAFS FOR            
TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. IF CLEARING OCCURS...FOG            
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND                  
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON              
TRACK PRECIP WISE...GIVEN AMPLE FORCING AVAILABLE FROM H5 VORTEX.               
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS 20 TO 30 KNOT LL JET IN PLACE ACROSS                   
WESTERN IN/EASTERN IL PER VWP/PROFILER/RUC ANALYSIS. THIS FEATURE               
COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL MID LEVEL WAVE HAS ALLOWED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM            
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE                            
INTENSITY...WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE            
SHOWERS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD               
INTO WESTERN ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING               
TREND AS LL JET WEAKENS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE MAINLY            
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.                        
PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO SFC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WRF AND               
GFS BOTH INDICATE GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT                
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE BROAD LIFT FROM H5 VORTEX WILL INCREASE               
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL DRY IN PLACE UPSTREAM                
GIVEN 00Z DVN SOUNDING. BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE HOW MUCH DAYTIME              
HEATING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS FA BEFORE GOOD DYNAMICS FALL IN PLACE.              
SUNSHINE MAY BE LACKING TODAY DUE TO RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM                  
CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS             
TODAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD COOLER SOLUTION IN FORECAST...GIVEN                  
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IF SUNSHINE DOES BREAK               
OUT...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES WOULD EASILY CLIMB TO AOR 1500 J/KG.                
DEEP SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET                 
STREAK ADVECTS INTO THE REGION...PRODUCING DEEP SHEAR VALUES AROUND             
30-35 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES. BOTTOM LINE...IF GOOD                
HEATING DOES OCCUR...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...NOT             
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND               
AND LARGE HAIL.                                                                 
AGAIN HIGHS TODAY WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. CURRENT            
TEMPS IN GRIDS REFLECT PARTIAL CLEARING. TEMPS COULD EASILY SWAY                
5-7 DEGREES EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF ISOLATION.                        
RAIN SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE                              
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. DRY SLOT WITH                  
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LEAD WAVE MAY CLEAR OUT SOUTHERN ZONES...HENCE                
HAVE LEFT LOWER POPS THERE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FA                    
TONIGHT. AMPLE LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH EXPECTED RAIN COMBINED                 
WITH THIS COOLER AIR MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG. HAVE NOT WORDED IN               
FORECAST YET...AS THERE IS QUESTIONS ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                                         
UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY BEFORE                
OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT ON TUESDAY. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES             
UNDER CIRCULATION MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT                 
WAVES SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE             
DAY. BUMPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. MODELS LINGER MOISTURE WITH              
SURFACE FRONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT SO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS                
PERIOD. LOW BEGINS TO EXIT ON TUE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON               
BACK SIDE. PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED POPS FOR TUE SO WILL CONTINUE THOUGH            
DRYING WORKING IN QUICKLY. MODELS MAY STILL BE A TAD FAST LIFTING               
LOW OUT. TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. CUT TEMPS             
SEVERAL DEGREES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST WITH UPPER LOW OVER            
AREA AND FLOW INCREASING OFF OF COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN. NAM12 2M TEMPS            
STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET OUT OF THE 50S. HAVE DROPPED TO MID 60S CLOSER             
TO COOLER MOS FOR NOW. WILL ALSO MENTION RIP CURRENTS FOR LAKE                  
MICHIGAN IN HWO FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS              
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASING WAVES.                                       
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR WED BEFORE RETURN FLOW                  
QUICKLY SETS UP AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. KEPT THIS               
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AS MODELS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE.                         
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT AND TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC                    
ZONE...WOULD EXPECT SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW              
LEVEL JET. BEST FOCUS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT                
WILL MONITOR. THURSDAY STILL LOOKING VERY WARM AND CONTINUED TO STAY            
ABOVE MEX MOS AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES. ECMWF VERY WARM              
WITH +20C AT 850MB. HAVE DOUBTS AS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GIVEN                
VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF TRIGGER TIL LATER IN THE DAY OR THU             
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY IN TIMING               
AND GENERAL SOLUTIONS SO NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. UNCERTAINTY                   
CONTINUES REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON FRONTAL                
POSITION AND MOVEMENT SO NO CHANGES.                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN/LASHLEY                                                  
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM....LASHLEY                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
324 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND                  
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON              
TRACK PRECIP WISE...GIVEN AMPLE FORCING AVAILABLE FROM H5 VORTEX.               
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS 20 TO 30 KNOT LL JET IN PLACE ACROSS                   
WESTERN IN/EASTERN IL PER VWP/PROFILER/RUC ANALYSIS. THIS FEATURE               
COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL MID LEVEL WAVE HAS ALLOWED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM            
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...WITH           
MAJORITY OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS               
AREA OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN                
ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND AS LL                
JET WEAKENS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE                 
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.                               
PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO SFC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WRF AND               
GFS BOTH INDICATE GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT                
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE BROAD LIFT FROM H5 VORTEX WILL INCREASE               
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL DRY IN PLACE UPSTREAM                
GIVEN 00Z DVN SOUNDING. BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE HOW MUCH DAYTIME              
HEATING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS FA BEFORE GOOD DYNAMICS FALL IN PLACE.              
SUNSHINE MAY BE LACKING TODAY DUE TO RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM                  
CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS             
TODAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD COOLER SOLUTION IN FORECAST...GIVEN                  
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IF SUNSHINE DOES BREAK               
OUT...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES WOULD EASILY CLIMB TO AOR 1500 J/KG.                
DEEP SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET                 
STREAK ADVECTS INTO THE REGION...PRODUCING DEEP SHEAR VALUES AROUND             
30-35 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES. BOTTOM LINE...IF GOOD                
HEATING DOES OCCUR...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...NOT             
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND           
LARGE HAIL.                                                                     
AGAIN HIGHS TODAY WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. CURRENT            
TEMPS IN GRIDS REFLECT PARTIAL CLEARING. TEMPS COULD EASILY SWAY                
5-7 DEGREES EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF ISOLATION.                        
RAIN SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE                              
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. DRY SLOT WITH                  
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LEAD WAVE MAY CLEAR OUT SOUTHERN ZONES...HENCE                
HAVE LEFT LOWER POPS THERE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FA                    
TONIGHT. AMPLE LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH EXPECTED RAIN COMBINED                 
WITH THIS COOLER AIR MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG. HAVE NOT WORDED IN               
FORECAST YET...AS THERE IS QUESTIONS ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                                         
UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY BEFORE                
OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT ON TUESDAY. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES             
UNDER CIRCULATION MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT                 
WAVES SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE             
DAY. BUMPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. MODELS LINGER MOISTURE WITH              
SURFACE FRONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT SO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS                
PERIOD. LOW BEGINS TO EXIT ON TUE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON               
BACK SIDE. PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED POPS FOR TUE SO WILL CONTINUE THOUGH            
DRYING WORKING IN QUICKLY. MODELS MAY STILL BE A TAD FAST LIFTING               
LOW OUT. TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. CUT TEMPS             
SEVERAL DEGREES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST WITH UPPER LOW OVER            
AREA AND FLOW INCREASING OFF OF COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN. NAM12 2M TEMPS            
STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET OUT OF THE 50S. HAVE DROPPED TO MID 60S CLOSER             
TO COOLER MOS FOR NOW. WILL ALSO MENTION RIP CURRENTS FOR LAKE                  
MICHIGAN IN HWO FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS              
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASING WAVES.                                       
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR WED BEFORE RETURN FLOW                  
QUICKLY SETS UP AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. KEPT THIS               
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AS MODELS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE.                         
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT AND TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC                    
ZONE...WOULD EXPECT SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW              
LEVEL JET. BEST FOCUS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT                
WILL MONITOR. THURSDAY STILL LOOKING VERY WARM AND CONTINUED TO STAY            
ABOVE MEX MOS AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES. ECMWF VERY WARM              
WITH +20C AT 850MB. HAVE DOUBTS AS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GIVEN                
VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF TRIGGER TIL LATER IN THE DAY OR THU             
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY IN TIMING               
AND GENERAL SOLUTIONS SO NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. UNCERTAINTY                   
CONTINUES REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON FRONTAL                
POSITION AND MOVEMENT SO NO CHANGES.                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM....LASHLEY                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
150 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE EAST OF KFWA AT THIS TIME. FEW SML                
ISOL CELLS MOVING NEAR THE AIRPORT BUT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO                    
INCREASE. HAVE WENT WITH A TEMPO SHOWER FOR A FEW HOURS AT KFWA TO              
COVER THIS DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EXPANDED THROUGH 23Z TO COVER                   
INCREASING COVERAGE WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY SE OF KFWA THAT WAS                
RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVITY YESTERDAY. TOWARDS KSBN BOUNDARY WORKING               
RAPIDLY NE ACROSS NW INDIANA FIRING CONVECTION NOW BUT MAINLY LOOKS             
TO PASS NW OF KSBN. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA                
COURTESY OF LAKE BREEZE BUT SFC OBS SHOWING SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE             
BREEZE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING INLAND WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST              
THEN BACK TO SW. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY PRECIP OUT OF KSBN FOR THE             
MOMENT UNTIL EFFECTS OF LAKE BREEZE CAN BE DETERMINED. OTHERWISE                
KSBN MAY HAVE TO WAIT TILL TONIGHT FOR ANY PRECIP.                              
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOSELY MONITORING CONDITIONS IN NW QUARTER TO HALF OF CWA AS STG               
SFC HEATING AND DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S            
TO AROUND 80 ALREADY LENDING TO SB CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND LI/S -3              
TO -6 C PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE AT 14Z. MESO PAGE ALSO SHOWS MUCH            
OF THE CIN NOW GONE. MUCH OF THE FOCUS IS ALONG THE LAKE WHERE                  
CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR POOLING OF BETTER MSTR WITH A FEW                   
LOCATIONS PUSHING 70 FOR DEWPTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE                
POTENTIAL OF RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LAKE BREEZE TAKES              
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF MCV IN             
MISSOURI PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER               
16Z. ONE OTHER POINT IS A FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KIWX                
BASE DATA THAT NOW RESIDES IN NE PARTS OF THE AREA. STORMS WILL                 
LIKELY BE ISOL-SCT IN NATURE AND OF PULSE VARIETY AT THE START AS               
BEST SHEAR REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST. HOWEVER AS AFTERNOON WEARS ON              
AND EVE APPROACHES COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND LIKELY                   
EXISTENCE OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...SVR THREAT SHOULD             
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NW AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON SVR MENTION IN                 
ZONES FOR NOW. LOOK OUT THE WINDOW NOW SHOWS CU POPPING SO                      
CONVECTIVE TEMP IN LOW 80S AS PROGGED.                                          
HAVE MOVED UP TIMING A BIT ON LIKELY POPS. HAD THOUGHT ABOUT                    
TRENDING WITH SCT POPS NW TO NUMEROUS BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW                 
THINGS EVOLVE BEFORE GETTING LOCKED INTO SPECIFIC WORDING WITH MID              
LEVEL CAPPING STILL SHOWING UP ON 12Z SOUNDINGS THAT COULD SLOW DOWN            
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MCV AND BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACHES LATER TODAY.               
TEMPS ON TRACK. CHANGED SKY COVER TO REFLECT MORE SUN EARLY WITH                
INCREASING CLOUDS NW AREAS FIRST TRENDING EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTN.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
INTERESTING WEATHER SETUP TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN STORE              
FOR TODAYS FORECAST.                                                            
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAKENING PROGRESSING SPEED MAX PROPAGATING            
THROUGH LOWER WESTERN MI. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED               
SOUTH FROM BALDWIN MI TO SOUTH BEND IN. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAA                 
BEING SUPPORTED BY WEAK THETA E ADVECTION UNDER SEMI-STEEP LAPSE                
RATES. OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL               
IL...WHERE LL JET WAS ESTABLISHED...AS INDICATED BY 40 KNOT H85 WIND            
SPEED ON ILX VWP. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LARGE AREA OF WEAKENING                  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADVANCING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL            
MO. RUC HINTS AT A VORT MAX AT 700MB...AND WITH PREVIOUS INTENSITY              
OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCV DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN FULL SWING. THIS            
WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.           
EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS                 
MORNING. H5 SPEED MAX ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LL JET WILL WEAKEN AND              
PUSH OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER              
THREAT INTO MID MORNING GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN                          
PLACE..COUPLED WITH SECONDARY LL SPEED MAX ACROSS CENTRAL IL.                   
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO DEVELOPING MCV UPSTREAM IN MO. THIS IMPULSE IS              
PROGGED TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO FA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN DIURNAL               
EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY...ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT             
ROBUST HEATING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. MODELS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY                  
WEAKEN MCV AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO FA. HOWEVER...MCV SYSTEMS ARE             
NOTORIOUSLY POORLY HANDLED BY FORECAST MODELS AND GIVEN THE NUMEROUS            
LL BOUNDARIES IN PLACE PER RADAR ANALYSIS WITH DEEP MOISTURE                    
CONTINUOUSLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY              
ACROSS THE FA FOR ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE                  
THREAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS FA. WRF INDICATES FAIR AMOUNT OF            
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH STEEP MID               
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NEAR INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND CAPE VALUES AOA               
2000 J/KG...ATM WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND            
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. MAIN H5 VORTEX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND              
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION. BEST                
COMBINATION OF DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WEST              
OF FA UNTIL LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK            
OVER FA. THINKING STORMS ACROSS FA WILL MOST LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A             
LINE OR LINES AND PUSH NORTHEAST...WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND 0-3KM             
SHEAR IN PLACE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY                        
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP GIVEN PRECIP WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5              
TO 2 INCH RANGE.                                                                
PERSISTENT NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT              
WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND ALLOW                           
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                  
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WARMEST            
TEMPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES...WHERE TEMPS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE.                
COOLER H85 TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUELL EXTREME TEMP RISES                
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.                                                           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                                           
COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH REGARD TO DETAILS AND TIMING OF WAVES AND             
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY MADE FEW               
CHANGES TO WEATHER AND POP GRIDS...THOUGH DID TRY AND REFINE A BIT              
FOR COLLABORATION.                                                              
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH            
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST COMES WITH NORTHWARD              
MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SLOWS               
APPROACHING UPPER LOW EVEN MORE. STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE             
FRONT TO BE MOVING THROUGH AT BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.                
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA                   
SUNDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT DRY SLOT MOVING IN BUT NOT GOING TO TRY AND             
TIME THIS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE                
AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES LINGERING.                                
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW AND                  
NORTHERLY FLOW. LATEST MODELS INDICATING THIS COOL STRETCH WILL BE              
SHORT LIVED AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH MID WEEK WITH A              
RETURN TO VERY WARM AIR POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. HAVE RAISED HIGHS                 
SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AS ECMWF AND GFS IN AGREEMENT. EXPECT MAX              
TEMPS BY THU WILL BE CLOSER TO 90 BUT WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION              
AND MONITOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...FISHER                                                        
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM....LASHLEY                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1106 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOSELY MONITORING CONDITIONS IN NW QUARTER TO HALF OF CWA AS STG               
SFC HEATING AND DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S            
TO AROUND 80 ALREADY LENDING TO SB CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND LI/S -3              
TO -6 C PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE AT 14Z. MESO PAGE ALSO SHOWS MUCH            
OF THE CIN NOW GONE. MUCH OF THE FOCUS IS ALONG THE LAKE WHERE                  
CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR POOLING OF BETTER MSTR WITH A FEW                   
LOCATIONS PUSHING 70 FOR DEWPTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE                
POTENTIAL OF RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LAKE BREEZE TAKES              
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF MCV IN             
MISSOURI PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER               
16Z. ONE OTHER POINT IS A FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KIWX                
BASE DATA THAT NOW RESIDES IN NE PARTS OF THE AREA. STORMS WILL                 
LIKELY BE ISOL-SCT IN NATURE AND OF PULSE VARIETY AT THE START AS               
BEST SHEAR REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST. HOWEVER AS AFTERNOON WEARS ON              
AND EVE APPROACHES COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND LIKELY                   
EXISTENCE OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA...SVR THREAT SHOULD             
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NW AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON SVR MENTION IN                 
ZONES FOR NOW. LOOK OUT THE WINDOW NOW SHOWS CU POPPING SO                      
CONVECTIVE TEMP IN LOW 80S AS PROGGED.                                          
HAVE MOVED UP TIMING A BIT ON LIKELY POPS. HAD THOUGHT ABOUT                    
TRENDING WITH SCT POPS NW TO NUMEROUS BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW                 
THINGS EVOLVE BEFORE GETTING LOCKED INTO SPECIFIC WORDING WITH MID              
LEVEL CAPPING STILL SHOWING UP ON 12Z SOUNDINGS THAT COULD SLOW DOWN            
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MCV AND BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACHES LATER TODAY.               
TEMPS ON TRACK. CHANGED SKY COVER TO REFLECT MORE SUN EARLY WITH                
INCREASING CLOUDS NW AREAS FIRST TRENDING EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTN.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH NO CONVECTION ACTIVE AT THE PRESENT TIME...IMMEDIATE CONCERN               
TURNS TOWARDS PATCHY HZ/BR AT KSBN. WILL THROW IN PREDOMINATE HIGH              
END MVFR VSBY FOR A FEW HOURS TILL SUN BURNS OFF WHAT IS AROUND.                
THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MCV MOVING THROUGH MO TOWARDS THE AREA. ITS                 
INTERACTION WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EVE SHOULD SPARK CONVECTION ACROSS BOTH SITES. WITH MAIN              
FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN TERMS OF                  
BOUNDARIES MAY BE DIFFICULT TODAY BUT IF CONVECTION FIRES...WILL                
DEVELOP FAST AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH 6Z              
TAFS OF VC MENTION OF TS/SH FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
INTERESTING WEATHER SETUP TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN STORE              
FOR TODAYS FORECAST.                                                            
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAKENING PROGRESSING SPEED MAX PROPAGATING            
THROUGH LOWER WESTERN MI. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED               
SOUTH FROM BALDWIN MI TO SOUTH BEND IN. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAA                 
BEING SUPPORTED BY WEAK THETA E ADVECTION UNDER SEMI-STEEP LAPSE                
RATES. OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL               
IL...WHERE LL JET WAS ESTABLISHED...AS INDICATED BY 40 KNOT H85 WIND            
SPEED ON ILX VWP. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LARGE AREA OF WEAKENING                  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADVANCING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL            
MO. RUC HINTS AT A VORT MAX AT 700MB...AND WITH PREVIOUS INTENSITY              
OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCV DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN FULL SWING. THIS            
WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.           
EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS                 
MORNING. H5 SPEED MAX ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LL JET WILL WEAKEN AND              
PUSH OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER              
THREAT INTO MID MORNING GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN                          
PLACE..COUPLED WITH SECONDARY LL SPEED MAX ACROSS CENTRAL IL.                   
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO DEVELOPING MCV UPSTREAM IN MO. THIS IMPULSE IS              
PROGGED TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO FA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN DIURNAL               
EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY...ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT             
ROBUST HEATING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. MODELS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY                  
WEAKEN MCV AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO FA. HOWEVER...MCV SYSTEMS ARE             
NOTORIOUSLY POORLY HANDLED BY FORECAST MODELS AND GIVEN THE NUMEROUS            
LL BOUNDARIES IN PLACE PER RADAR ANALYSIS WITH DEEP MOISTURE                    
CONTINUOUSLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY              
ACROSS THE FA FOR ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE                  
THREAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS FA. WRF INDICATES FAIR AMOUNT OF            
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH STEEP MID               
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NEAR INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND CAPE VALUES AOA               
2000 J/KG...ATM WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND            
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. MAIN H5 VORTEX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND              
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION. BEST                
COMBINATION OF DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WEST              
OF FA UNTIL LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK            
OVER FA. THINKING STORMS ACROSS FA WILL MOST LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A             
LINE OR LINES AND PUSH NORTHEAST...WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND 0-3KM             
SHEAR IN PLACE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY                        
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP GIVEN PRECIP WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5              
TO 2 INCH RANGE.                                                                
PERSISTENT NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT              
WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND ALLOW                           
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                  
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WARMEST            
TEMPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES...WHERE TEMPS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE.                
COOLER H85 TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUELL EXTREME TEMP RISES                
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.                                                           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                                           
COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH REGARD TO DETAILS AND TIMING OF WAVES AND             
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY MADE FEW               
CHANGES TO WEATHER AND POP GRIDS...THOUGH DID TRY AND REFINE A BIT              
FOR COLLABORATION.                                                              
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH            
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST COMES WITH NORTHWARD              
MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SLOWS               
APPROACHING UPPER LOW EVEN MORE. STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE             
FRONT TO BE MOVING THROUGH AT BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.                
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA                   
SUNDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT DRY SLOT MOVING IN BUT NOT GOING TO TRY AND             
TIME THIS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE                
AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES LINGERING.                                
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW AND                  
NORTHERLY FLOW. LATEST MODELS INDICATING THIS COOL STRETCH WILL BE              
SHORT LIVED AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH MID WEEK WITH A              
RETURN TO VERY WARM AIR POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. HAVE RAISED HIGHS                 
SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AS ECMWF AND GFS IN AGREEMENT. EXPECT MAX              
TEMPS BY THU WILL BE CLOSER TO 90 BUT WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION              
AND MONITOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...FISHER                                                                 
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN/FISHER                                                   
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM....LASHLEY                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
750 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH NO CONVECTION ACTIVE AT THE PRESENT TIME...IMMEDIATE CONCERN               
TURNS TOWARDS PATCHY HZ/BR AT KSBN. WILL THROW IN PREDOMINATE HIGH              
END MVFR VSBY FOR A FEW HOURS TILL SUN BURNS OFF WHAT IS AROUND.                
THEN FOCUS TURNS TO MCV MOVING THROUGH MO TOWARDS THE AREA. ITS                 
INTERACTION WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EVE SHOULD SPARK CONVECTION ACROSS BOTH SITES. WITH MAIN              
FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN TERMS OF                  
BOUNDARIES MAY BE DIFFICULT TODAY BUT IF CONVECTION FIRES...WILL                
DEVELOP FAST AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH 6Z              
TAFS OF VC MENTION OF TS/SH FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
INTERESTING WEATHER SETUP TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN STORE              
FOR TODAYS FORECAST.                                                            
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAKENING PROGRESSING SPEED MAX PROPAGATING            
THROUGH LOWER WESTERN MI. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED               
SOUTH FROM BALDWIN MI TO SOUTH BEND IN. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAA                 
BEING SUPPORTED BY WEAK THETA E ADVECTION UNDER SEMI-STEEP LAPSE                
RATES. OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL               
IL...WHERE LL JET WAS ESTABLISHED...AS INDICATED BY 40 KNOT H85 WIND            
SPEED ON ILX VWP. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LARGE AREA OF WEAKENING                  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADVANCING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL            
MO. RUC HINTS AT A VORT MAX AT 700MB...AND WITH PREVIOUS INTENSITY              
OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCV DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN FULL SWING. THIS            
WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.           
EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS                 
MORNING. H5 SPEED MAX ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LL JET WILL WEAKEN AND              
PUSH OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER              
THREAT INTO MID MORNING GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN                          
PLACE..COUPLED WITH SECONDARY LL SPEED MAX ACROSS CENTRAL IL.                   
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO DEVELOPING MCV UPSTREAM IN MO. THIS IMPULSE IS              
PROGGED TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO FA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN DIURNAL               
EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY...ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT             
ROBUST HEATING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. MODELS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY                  
WEAKEN MCV AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO FA. HOWEVER...MCV SYSTEMS ARE             
NOTORIOUSLY POORLY HANDLED BY FORECAST MODELS AND GIVEN THE NUMEROUS            
LL BOUNDARIES IN PLACE PER RADAR ANALYSIS WITH DEEP MOISTURE                    
CONTINUOUSLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY              
ACROSS THE FA FOR ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE                  
THREAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS FA. WRF INDICATES FAIR AMOUNT OF            
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH STEEP MID               
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NEAR INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND CAPE VALUES AOA               
2000 J/KG...ATM WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND            
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. MAIN H5 VORTEX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND              
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION. BEST                
COMBINATION OF DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WEST              
OF FA UNTIL LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK            
OVER FA. THINKING STORMS ACROSS FA WILL MOST LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A             
LINE OR LINES AND PUSH NORTHEAST...WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND 0-3KM             
SHEAR IN PLACE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY                        
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP GIVEN PRECIP WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5              
TO 2 INCH RANGE.                                                                
PERSISTENT NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT              
WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND ALLOW                           
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                  
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WARMEST            
TEMPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES...WHERE TEMPS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE.                
COOLER H85 TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUELL EXTREME TEMP RISES                
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                                           
COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH REGARD TO DETAILS AND TIMING OF WAVES AND             
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY MADE FEW               
CHANGES TO WEATHER AND POP GRIDS...THOUGH DID TRY AND REFINE A BIT              
FOR COLLABORATION.                                                              
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH            
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST COMES WITH NORTHWARD              
MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SLOWS               
APPROACHING UPPER LOW EVEN MORE. STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE             
FRONT TO BE MOVING THROUGH AT BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.                
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA                   
SUNDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT DRY SLOT MOVING IN BUT NOT GOING TO TRY AND             
TIME THIS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE                
AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES LINGERING.                                
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW AND                  
NORTHERLY FLOW. LATEST MODELS INDICATING THIS COOL STRETCH WILL BE              
SHORT LIVED AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH MID WEEK WITH A              
RETURN TO VERY WARM AIR POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. HAVE RAISED HIGHS                 
SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AS ECMWF AND GFS IN AGREEMENT. EXPECT MAX              
TEMPS BY THU WILL BE CLOSER TO 90 BUT WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION              
AND MONITOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN/FISHER                                                   
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM....LASHLEY                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1055 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE WEAKENING EXTRA-TROPICAL REMAINS OF BARRY WILL APPROACH FROM                
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TRACK THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. A           
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY               
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WED.                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP TO BACK OFF ON RAFL ARRIVING TIL LATER ON TONIGHT             
PER LATEST RUC & NAM/GFS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING BULK OF THE             
RAFL JUT MOVING INTO SRN ME (KITTY AND PWM). BROUGHT SKY GRIDS UP TO            
100% LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS/DWPTS RUNNING IN LINE. ADDED SOME FOG                 
STARTING FROM 05Z INTO MONDAY MORNING W/ESE FLOW.                               
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD REACHING NORTHERN                 
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER                   
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW INTENSIFIES.                                
AS USUAL A DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS WITH            
THE START OF RAIN WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARRY. USED A COMPROMISE WITH            
RAIN REACHING DOWNEAST SECTIONS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN REACHING               
NORTHERN SECTIONS AROUND NOONTIME MONDAY. ALSO USED A BLEND OF THE              
NAM, GFS, AND HPC FOR QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OVER                   
DOWNEAST SECTIONS TAPERING TO HALF AN INCH OVER EXTREME NORTHERN                
SECTIONS. RAIN TOTAL WILL BE LESS OVER THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH                
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.                                           
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT                     
TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE. NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET                
OF 50 KTS WILL MOVE INTO DOWNEAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH                   
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                  
REMNANTS OF BARRY WILL STILL DICTATE THE WEATHER ON MONDAY NIGHT                
AND TUESDAY. BOTH PERIODS ARE RATHER CLOUDY AND WET. SIMILAR TO                 
PREVIOUS PERIODS...A COMBINATION OF GFS AND NAM WAS USED AS THE                 
PRIMARY GUIDANCE TOOL DURING THIS PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE EXPECT THE              
GREATEST PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL                    
RAINFALL FALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE                  
OVER NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A              
CONCERN GIVEN CURRENT RIVER STAGES. WHAT REMAINS OF THE BARRY`S LOW             
PRESSURE CENTER THEN MOVES NORTH LEAVING THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST                  
FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST. BECAUSE OF                     
INCREASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...WE DO NOT EXPECT              
A RAPID CLEARING AFTER TUESDAY. RATHER LINGERING SHOWERS WILL                   
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES.                        
CONDITIONS IMPROVE GREATLY ON THURSDAY DESPITE A CHANCE OF                      
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                   
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM MODELS IS LOW WITH RUN TO RUN                       
INCONSISTENCIES AND DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS. KEPT CLOSE TO                 
HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON WHICH CLOSELY MATCHED THE 06Z GFS.                 
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO HOLD ON OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO                    
FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY               
CLOUDY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                       
BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER               
NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. 06Z GFS MOVES IT INTO THE              
REGION NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...HOWEVER LATEST              
12Z GFS KEEPS FRONT AND SHOWERS TO OUR WEST DUE TO BLOCKING ALOFT.              
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT SINCE               
RELIED ON HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WENT WITH THE FORMER                     
SOLUTION.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER BACK TO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER                  
DOWNEAST SITES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN AND FOG.                 
VFR ACROSS NORTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO                
MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AS REMNANTS OF BARRY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH.             
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND FOG FOR NORTHERN SITES BY                     
MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SWELL MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL REACH WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON MONDAY PRODUCING SCA WINDS BY                
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE SCA STARTS AT MIDNIGHT AND              
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO COUNT FOR SEAS TONIGHT AND WINDS              
AND SEAS ON MONDAY. VSBY WILL LOWER TO LESS THAN 1 NM ON MONDAY IN              
RAIN AND FOG.                                                                   
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SEA STATES ARE        
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD. SCA MAYBE REQUIRED              
ON TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE PERIOD OF THE SWELL. WILL HOLD OFF                  
FOR NOW AND REASSESS LATER.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY         
     FOR ANZ050.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/FOSTER                                                       
SHORT TERM...LERICOS                                                            
LONG TERM...WEITLICH                                                            
AVIATION...FOSTER                                                               
MARINE...FOSTER/LERICOS                                                         
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
144 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/SUN)...                                                    
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA TRENDS.                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER            
LEVEL HAD MOVED INTO SW MN. ONE IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE SPOKES                 
AROUND THE LOW SUPPORTED A BAND SHRA FROM W AND CNTRL UPPER MI INTO             
FAR NE WI AND LAKE MI. NE MOVING TSTMS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED AND MOVED             
INTO THE BAY OF GREEN BAY NEAR CEDAR RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER                
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS NOTED IN THE CWA. AT THE SFC...                   
AN OCCLUDED FRONT LOOPED FROM SW MN AND NW AND CNTRL WI INTO ERN IA.            
LITTLE RAIN WAS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHRTWV WITH MORE SCT                 
SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER.                                        
TONIGHT AND SUN...MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS              
THE SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHRA                     
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AS QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED THE MID               
LEVEL LOW INCREASES AND WEAK LOW LVL CONV PERSISTS VCNTY SFC TROF               
INTO UPPER MI...PER 18Z RUC. PCPN WITH GREATER QPF WILL BE MORE                 
LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE AREA IS IN A FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF THE MID                 
LEVEL LOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV. THE                  
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TSTM CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE               
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. WITH ONLY MARGINAL SB OR MUCAPE              
THIS EVENING OR SUN OF AROUND 500-700 J/KG OR MUCAPE TONIGHT/SUN AND            
ONLY 30 KT 0-6KM SHEAR INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN                     
RELATIVELY WEAK.                                                                
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT)                                         
STUBBORN UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO            
MON AND EXITS THE REGION ON TUE. FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW             
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOW...AND THUS...WILL NEED TO LINGER POPS LONGER.            
DEEP LAYER Q-G FORCING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE AHEAD OF              
UPR LOW AND DEEPENING SFC LOW OVR LOWER MI TO PLACE MOST OF CWA IN A            
GOOD AREA FOR PERSISTENT SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THETA-E               
ADVECTION GRAZES EASTERN ZONES SO KEPT SOME ISOLD THUNDER IN SUNDAY             
NIGHT...BUT CHANCES SEEM PRETTY SLIM. LATE SUN INTO MON...LEANED ON             
THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NAM SOLUTION. EAST 2/3 OF CWA WILL BE             
UNDER THE LINGERING DEFORMATION AREA ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW.                
NORTH WINDS IN BLYR WILL ALSO PRODUCE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO                    
PCPN OVR NCNTRL CWA. NAM/REGIONAL GEM PRINT OUT OVER AN INCH OF                 
QPF SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON IN NCNTRL. TYPE OF SETUP SUPPORTS THIS                
SOLUTION SO CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT.                                         
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION IN LOWER LEVELS IS THEN SHOWN               
BY GFS/UKMET AND EVEN THE NAM BY LATE MON NIGHT. RE-AMPLIFICATION               
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TUE MOSTLY TAKES PLACE OVR EASTERN CANADA              
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LAPSE RATES DO TRY TO STEEPEN OVR NORTHERN               
PLAINS INTO FAR WESTERN PORTION OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WHERE WARMER               
TEMPS AT H85 HANG ON. OVERALL THOUGH...INSTABILITY SHOWER CHANCES               
FOR CWA APPEAR MINIMAL. TRANSITION BEGINS TUE NIGHT AS UPPER                    
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE PRESSING INTO              
RIDGE OVR WESTERN CONUS. TUE NIGHT AND WED SHOULD BE DRY. POTENTIAL             
OF TEMPS IN THE 30S ON TUE NIGHT IN SHELTERED AREAS THAT KEEP MOSTLY            
CLEAR SKIES. MEANWHILE...PORTION OF SHORTWAVE OVR WESTERN CONUS                 
PRESSES FARTHER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                       
THIS WAVE IS THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT ECMWF WAS                
PICKING UP ON LAST COUPLE DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTH OF IT IS             
NOW AGREED UPON BY GFS/CANADIAN AND UKMET. QUITE A SFC REFLECTION               
WITH THE SHORTWAVE WITH HPC PROGS SHOWING A 984MB LOW OVR DAKOTAS ON            
THU MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW INTO THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF LOW IS IMPRESSIVE WITH SOUTH              
WINDS TO 50KT AT H85. TIMING OF INITIAL WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONTAL            
PASSAGE WILL DICTATE WHEN BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE. H85 TEMPS             
TO 20C AHEAD OF FRONT COULD POINT TO MAX TEMPS THU AROUND 90. TOO               
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT OUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARM FRONT              
POSITION TO GO MUCH ABOVE HPC GUIDANCE. IF WE END UP BEING CAPPED TO            
CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY TEMPS THIS WARM OR WARMER ARE A                  
POSSIBILITY. STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS AND EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AND                 
MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.                   
WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE IN THE HWO. AFTER THE FRONT PLOWS                  
THROUGH...DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE                
WEEKEND. LOOKS COOLER THAN THU...BUT NOT ALL THAT OFF THE NORMAL FOR            
EARLY JUNE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
AS THE SFC LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES TONIGHT INTO                    
SUN...NE WINDS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH             
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT WILL BECOME NRLY BY LATE               
SUN. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST TIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN THE STRONGER               
NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN GREATER DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING. THE                
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE N             
WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH AN AREA OF 30 KT WINDS            
OVER THE E ON MON. COLDER AIR WITH MORE EFFECTIVE MIXING TO THE SFC             
SHOULD RESULT IN WAVES INTO THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
TAFS PROVING TO BE A CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING. KCMX IN                      
PARTICULAR IS JUMPING BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR VSBYS. GIVEN THE                   
VARIABILITY THUS FAR...I DECIDED TO KEEP A WIDER VSBY RANGE IN FOR              
KCMX GOING WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND THEN INCLUDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR             
VLIFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE MORNING IN CASE DENSE FOG ADVECTS IN OFF             
LAKE SUPERIOR. DO NOT LOOK FOR MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE TAF                 
PERIOD EXCEPT WHEN -SHRA MOVE THROUGH WHICH SHOULD TEND TO IMPROVE              
VIS SOME.                                                                       
KSAW WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AS LOW CIGS JUST STARTING TO APPEAR THERE.             
AGAIN I WENT PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AND INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR            
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY            
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONSHORE/UPSLOPE               
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SOCKED IN AT KSAW             
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...JLB                                                         
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
140 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS...                                                     
MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA ARE                   
EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BANDS OF PCPN MOVES              
THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MOVING INTO SW MN.             
BY LATER TONIGHT VLIFFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY MOIST            
LOW LEVELS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SRLY FLOW. AT KCMX THE LIFR CIGS MAY            
BRIEFLY LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PEAK DIURNAL                 
HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH -SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING COMBINED              
WITH WITH MOIST WEAK EASTERLY FLOW...CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP               
DOWN TO VLIFR. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE                 
MORNING SUN WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND THE SFC TROF IN THE VCNTY.             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                     
RADAR INDICATED THAT SHRA/TSRA MOVING NORTH THROUGH WI HAD                      
WEAKENED. IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED THAT CLOUD TOPS HAD WARMED.                    
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT SCT/NUM SHRA TO MOVE INTO THE WEST HALF OF                
UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING SHRTWV OVER WI LIFTS TO               
THE NORTH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE CUT DOWN ON HEATING BUT MAY                 
STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPS/DEWPOINT            
VALUES NEAR 75/60 OVER INTERIOR CNTRL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES IN THE                
500-700 J/KG RANGE. SO...ISOLD TSTMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BY MID                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
POPS WERE REDUCED OVER THE EAST WHERE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE             
MI WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME ISOLD -SHRA MAY SURVIVE             
OVER THE MARINE LAYER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SHRTWV. CONV ZONE WITH            
LK SUPERIOR BREEZE OVER NE CWA MAY ALSO SET OFF SOME ISOLD -SHRA.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007 MAIN FCST                
CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA TRENDS.                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER             
ERN SD AND A RDG FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A               
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN WI PRODUCED SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM               
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF              
WHERE MUCAPES WERE FROM 200-400 J/KG AND UPR DIV WAS PRESENT AT NOSE            
OF 3H JET MAX. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MID-LVL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS              
THE FCST AREA HAVE GENERALLY PREVENTED RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING             
OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...MOIST 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOR               
SOME ADVECTION FOG TO PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK ERLY FLOW              
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS BROUGHT SOME PATCHY FOG INTO KCMX               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
TODAY...EXPECT ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING FROM THE               
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA. AS THE MID-LVL LOW                 
SLOWLY APPROACHES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN             
18-00Z. INCREASING DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV...5H DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF             
THE APPROACHING MID-LVL LOW/TROF AND LOW LVL CONV NEAR THE ASSOC SFC            
TROF WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA             
BY MID AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE WRN             
HALF OF UPR MI WHERE MODEL FORECAST MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH               
NEAR 500 J/KG. DECIDED TO BUMP UP SHRA COVERAGE FROM SCT TO NUMEROUS            
OVER THESE COUNTIES.                                                            
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEST SHRA COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO             
CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MID-LVL LOW             
IS FCST TO BE NEAR KGRB BY 00Z MON. DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASINGLY            
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES 200-400 J/KG) WILL INCREASE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE             
TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WRN COUNTIES.                       
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE             
SLOWLY E REACHING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN            
BY LATE MON. LOOK FOR DEFORMATION PCPN TO WRAP BACK INTO MAINLY THE             
ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS ON THE                 
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF WILL ALSO AID CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY ENHANCE               
PCPN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR EASTERN AREAS INTO MON.                         
OTHERWISE...DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD                
END SHRA OVR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY MON.                                        
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN IN A NW FLOW WILL WARRANT MAINTAINING             
LOW CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM GLF ISSUANCE)...                                              
LOW PRES OF 29.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL              
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD...REACHING NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN             
AT 29.6 INCHES EARLY SUN MORNING...BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC              
AT 29.2 INCHES ON TUE MORNING. AS THIS LOW EXITS...HIGH PRES OF 29.8            
INCHES OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUE WILL EXPAND OVER THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES THROUGH WED.                                                              
WINDS ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE LAKE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TRICKY THIS            
MORNING...WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                   
STRETCHED ACROSS THE WEST PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE.  FOR THIS                  
ISSUANCE MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES...BUT DID INCREASE WIND/GUSTS ON               
MONDAY TO UP TO 30KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION/MARINE...KF                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR INDICATED THAT SHRA/TSRA MOVING NORTH THROUGH WI HAD                      
WEAKENED. IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED THAT CLOUD TOPS HAD WARMED.                    
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT SCT/NUM SHRA TO MOVE INTO THE WEST HALF OF                
UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING SHRTWV OVER WI LIFTS TO               
THE NORTH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE CUT DOWN ON HEATING BUT MAY                 
STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPS/DEWPOINT            
VALUES NEAR 75/60 OVER INTERIOR CNTRL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES IN THE                
500-700 J/KG RANGE. SO...ISOLD TSTMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BY MID                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
POPS WERE REDUCED OVER THE EAST WHERE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE             
MI WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME ISOLD -SHRA MAY SURVIVE             
OVER THE MARINE LAYER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SHRTWV. CONV ZONE WITH            
LK SUPERIOR BREEZE OVER NE CWA MAY ALSO SET OFF SOME ISOLD -SHRA.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAFS...ISSUED 715 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                     
DESPITE THE 4-6 HOUR BREAK FROM FOG AT KCMX...CEIGS AND VIS HAVE                
ONCE AGAIN COME DOWN TO LIFR AROUND SUNRISE.  EVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS              
THAT WERE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW HAVE NOW BEEN REPLACED BY               
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS.  LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE              
LOWER CLOUDS STRETCH DOWN THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH SOME            
PATCHINESS.  AS A RESULT...ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED OVER               
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR-LIFR CEIGS AND              
VIS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT ROLL THROUGH MAINLY FROM             
MID AFTERNOON ON THROUGH AROUND THE 06-09Z TIME PERIOD.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA TRENDS.                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER             
ERN SD AND A RDG FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A               
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN WI PRODUCED SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM               
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF              
WHERE MUCAPES WERE FROM 200-400 J/KG AND UPR DIV WAS PRESENT AT NOSE            
OF 3H JET MAX. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MID-LVL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS              
THE FCST AREA HAVE GENERALLY PREVENTED RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING             
OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...MOIST 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOR               
SOME ADVECTION FOG TO PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK ERLY FLOW              
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS BROUGHT SOME PATCHY FOG INTO KCMX               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
TODAY...EXPECT ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING FROM THE               
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA. AS THE MID-LVL LOW                 
SLOWLY APPROACHES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN             
18-00Z. INCREASING DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV...5H DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF             
THE APPROACHING MID-LVL LOW/TROF AND LOW LVL CONV NEAR THE ASSOC SFC            
TROF WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA             
BY MID AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE WRN             
HALF OF UPR MI WHERE MODEL FORECAST MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH               
NEAR 500 J/KG. DECIDED TO BUMP UP SHRA COVERAGE FROM SCT TO NUMEROUS            
OVER THESE COUNTIES.                                                            
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEST SHRA COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO             
CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MID-LVL LOW             
IS FCST TO BE NEAR KGRB BY 00Z MON. DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASINGLY            
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES 200-400 J/KG) WILL INCREASE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE             
TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WRN COUNTIES.                       
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE             
SLOWLY E REACHING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN            
BY LATE MON. LOOK FOR DEFORMATION PCPN TO WRAP BACK INTO MAINLY THE             
ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS ON THE                 
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF WILL ALSO AID CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY ENHANCE               
PCPN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR EASTERN AREAS INTO MON.                         
OTHERWISE...DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD                
END SHRA OVR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY MON.                                        
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN IN A NW FLOW WILL WARRANT MAINTAINING             
LOW CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM GLF ISSUANCE)...                                              
LOW PRES OF 29.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL              
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD...REACHING NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN             
AT 29.6 INCHES EARLY SUN MORNING...BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC              
AT 29.2 INCHES ON TUE MORNING. AS THIS LOW EXITS...HIGH PRES OF 29.8            
INCHES OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUE WILL EXPAND OVER THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES THROUGH WED.                                                              
WINDS ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE LAKE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TRICKY THIS            
MORNING...WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                   
STRETCHED ACROSS THE WEST PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE.  FOR THIS                  
ISSUANCE MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES...BUT DID INCREASE WIND/GUSTS ON               
MONDAY TO UP TO 30KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION/MARINE...KF                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1048 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                      
.UPDATED...                                                                     
I LOWERED THE POP THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF THE CWA TO CHC SINCE I             
DO NOT SEE ANY REAL MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM GENERATION OTHER THEN            
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTRACTION. TRUE...THERE ARE DECENT CAPES              
AND THE SURFACED BASED LI VALUES WILL BE NEGATIVE OVER JUST ABOUT               
ALL OF THE CWA. EVEN SO...THE DNVA BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING                     
CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION INTO MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE             
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEAR CHI AT 15Z MAY AID LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION NEAR            
US-131 BY MID AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION WITH               
THE SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON I DO HAVE  LIKELY POP NEAR US-131 BY               
MID AFTERNOON. THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING             
BEFORE WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR ENERGY. THUS I KEEP THE                 
NUMEROUS WORDING EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.                         
AS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPES ARE IMPRESSIVE BUT THE WIND                 
FIELD THROUGH MID LEVELS IN NOT CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER.                    
FREEZING LEVELS ON TAMDAR AT 12-14Z ARE SLOPE UP FROM 12000 FT NEAR             
JXN TO 1300 FT NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THE HIGH FREEZING                  
LEVELS AT FIRST GLANCE WOULD NOT SUPPORT HAIL. HOWEVER...MODEL                  
FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST PULSE LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE                    
QUESTION SINCE BASED ON THE RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS THERE IS A FAIR                 
AMOUNT OF CAPE ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL. THE NAM IS MORE CONSERVATIVE.              
THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THE LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS LOWER THIS                    
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. IF SO ALL BETS OF OFF FOR ANY                
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE GRR CWA TODAY OR TONIGHT.                               
THE REST OF THE ZONE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK... SO THAT                   
REMAINS AS IS.                                                                  
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER             
THE PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED             
OVER THE ERN BORDER OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE UPPER            
LOW IS A NICE BELT OF DEEP SW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES RIDING             
TO THE NE. OUR MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE                    
FORECAST IS PCPN CHCS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM TODAY RIGHT ON                  
THROUGH MON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH SUN AND              
IS THEN RIGHT OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MON.                                       
REMNANTS OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED AREAS TO OUR WEST              
OVER IA/IL/WI DURING THE DAY ON FRI...ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH              
THE CWFA THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY...           
HOWEVER DUE TO MESOSCALE EFFECTS AND AN INSTABILITY AXIS ALOFT...               
SOME OF THE CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF AS IT MOVES NE. THIS               
BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA BY 12Z...LEAVING THE             
AREA IN A RELATIVE VOID OF MOST PCPN TEMPORARILY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE              
SOMEWHAT LIMITED THIS MORNING WITH DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION              
RESPONSIBLE MOST CLOUD COVER INITIALLY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY                
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS IN                     
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME RAIN THIS                   
MORNING.                                                                        
AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES...SOME SUN WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BACK INTO              
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. SUN WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AFTER             
THE MORNING AS ADDITIONAL DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION SW OF              
THE AREA WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL WAVES THAT CAN BE                
SEEN FROM LOWER MICHIGAN BACK DOWN INTO THE MO AREA WILL TEND TO                
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE OBVIOUSLY            
HAS TO DO WITH HOW MUCH SUN WE CAN GET...AND THIS DEPENDS ON THE                
TIMING OVER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES. ASSUMING WE CAN GET A FAIR AMOUNT             
OF SUN THIS MORNING...MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WOULD            
SUPPORT SB CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SB LI/S AROUND -5. WITH SHORT             
WAVES EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THE               
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...THIS SUPPORTS A BETTER THREAT OF                
CONVECTION THAN WHAT HAS BEEN PRESENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEEP LAYER             
SHEAR ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY            
AS MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY 25 TO 30 KTS GIVING SHEAR VALUES OF                 
20 KTS OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES INCREASE LATE FROM THE NW AS THE            
MID LEVEL JET MOVES IN. ALSO IF ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MOVES             
IN...THERE WOULD BE SOME GOOD LOCALIZED SHEAR PRESENT. POTENTIAL                
INSTABILITY COULD MAKE UP FOR THIS AND PRODUCE A WIND AND HAIL                  
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATER AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. WE HAVE INCREASED             
THE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TO THE LIKELY/NUMEROUS              
CATEGORY.                                                                       
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD                 
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE             
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN THOUGH WITH THE AREA                   
REMAINING PRONE TO SHORT WAVES RIDING NE ALONG THE MID LEVEL FLOW.              
WE HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT.            
THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN FINALLY MOVE NEARBY DURING THE COURSE OF THE            
DAY ON SUN ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. A FEW PEEKS OF SUN              
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN MORNING...BUT WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING              
OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS                
WILL FILL IN AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING.                      
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE AS SFC TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE                
INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL            
ACT WITH COLD POOL ALOFT TO PROVIDE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE AND             
LI/S AROUND -3. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MUCH BETTER WITH THE MID               
LEVEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE                   
POSSIBLE DUE TO FREEZING LEVELS OF ONLY AROUND 9K TO 10K FEET...AND             
SOME DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS.              
THE POTENTIAL OF PCPN WILL THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON MON AS THE                 
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP INTO A WAVE AND THE BETTER MOISTURE MOVES            
EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON                
AFTERNOON. THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT                  
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND LI/S REMAIN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. TEMPS ON MON                
WILL LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH THE THERMAL            
TROUGH MOVING IN.                                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MON THROUGH FRI...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES                   
THROUGH TUE WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS LATE ON TUE INTO THU AS WRN RIDGE             
BUILD EWD. ON TUE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOWING WEAK S/W ENERGY MOVING               
THROUGH TROF...SO THINKING IS FOR SCT SHOWER THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH             
AFTN DIURNAL HEAT MAX. TEMPS WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND TREND              
UPWARDS TOWARDS THU.                                                            
BY THU EARLY AM WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA WITH S/W ENERGY DIGGING             
ESE AS IT TOPS RIDGE AXIS ALOFT.  THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR             
EARLY MORNING MCS EVENT. BUMPED POPS A FEW PERCENT TO START A TREND             
TOWARDS POTENTIAL EVENT.                                                        
$$                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NJJ COBB WDM                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
515 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAFS...                                                     
DESPITE THE 4-6 HOUR BREAK FROM FOG AT KCMX...CEIGS AND VIS HAVE                
ONCE AGAIN COME DOWN TO LIFR AROUND SUNRISE.  EVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS              
THAT WERE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT AT KSAW HAVE NOW BEEN REPLACED BY               
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS.  LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE              
LOWER CLOUDS STRETCH DOWN THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH SOME            
PATCHINESS.  AS A RESULT...ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED OVER               
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR-LIFR CEIGS AND              
VIS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT ROLL THROUGH MAINLY FROM             
MID AFTERNOON ON THROUGH AROUND THE 06-09Z TIME PERIOD.                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA TRENDS.                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER             
ERN SD AND A RDG FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A               
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN WI PRODUCED SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM               
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF              
WHERE MUCAPES WERE FROM 200-400 J/KG AND UPR DIV WAS PRESENT AT NOSE            
OF 3H JET MAX. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MID-LVL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS              
THE FCST AREA HAVE GENERALLY PREVENTED RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING             
OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...MOIST 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOR               
SOME ADVECTION FOG TO PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK ERLY FLOW              
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS BROUGHT SOME PATCHY FOG INTO KCMX               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
TODAY...EXPECT ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING FROM THE               
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA. AS THE MID-LVL LOW                 
SLOWLY APPROACHES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN             
18-00Z. INCREASING DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV...5H DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF             
THE APPROACHING MID-LVL LOW/TROF AND LOW LVL CONV NEAR THE ASSOC SFC            
TROF WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA             
BY MID AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE WRN             
HALF OF UPR MI WHERE MODEL FORECAST MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH               
NEAR 500 J/KG. DECIDED TO BUMP UP SHRA COVERAGE FROM SCT TO NUMEROUS            
OVER THESE COUNTIES.                                                            
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEST SHRA COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO             
CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MID-LVL LOW             
IS FCST TO BE NEAR KGRB BY 00Z MON. DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASINGLY            
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES 200-400 J/KG) WILL INCREASE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE             
TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WRN COUNTIES.                       
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE             
SLOWLY E REACHING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN            
BY LATE MON. LOOK FOR DEFORMATION PCPN TO WRAP BACK INTO MAINLY THE             
ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS ON THE                 
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF WILL ALSO AID CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY ENHANCE               
PCPN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR EASTERN AREAS INTO MON.                         
OTHERWISE...DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD                
END SHRA OVR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY MON.                                        
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN IN A NW FLOW WILL WARRANT MAINTAINING             
LOW CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM GLF ISSUANCE)...                                              
LOW PRES OF 29.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL              
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD...REACHING NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN             
AT 29.6 INCHES EARLY SUN MORNING...BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC              
AT 29.2 INCHES ON TUE MORNING. AS THIS LOW EXITS...HIGH PRES OF 29.8            
INCHES OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUE WILL EXPAND OVER THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES THROUGH WED.                                                              
WINDS ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE LAKE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TRICKY THIS            
MORNING...WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                   
STRETCHED ACROSS THE WEST PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE.  FOR THIS                  
ISSUANCE MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES...BUT DID INCREASE WIND/GUSTS ON               
MONDAY TO UP TO 30KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION/MARINE...KF                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
510 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA TRENDS.                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER             
ERN SD AND A RDG FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A               
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN WI PRODUCED SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM               
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF              
WHERE MUCAPES WERE FROM 200-400 J/KG AND UPR DIV WAS PRESENT AT NOSE            
OF 3H JET MAX. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MID-LVL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS              
THE FCST AREA HAVE GENERALLY PREVENTED RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING             
OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...MOIST 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOR               
SOME ADVECTION FOG TO PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK ERLY FLOW              
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS BROUGHT SOME PATCHY FOG INTO KCMX               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
TODAY...EXPECT ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING FROM THE               
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA. AS THE MID-LVL LOW                 
SLOWLY APPROACHES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN             
18-00Z. INCREASING DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV...5H DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF             
THE APPROACHING MID-LVL LOW/TROF AND LOW LVL CONV NEAR THE ASSOC SFC            
TROF WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA             
BY MID AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE WRN             
HALF OF UPR MI WHERE MODEL FORECAST MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH               
NEAR 500 J/KG. DECIDED TO BUMP UP SHRA COVERAGE FROM SCT TO NUMEROUS            
OVER THESE COUNTIES.                                                            
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEST SHRA COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO             
CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MID-LVL LOW             
IS FCST TO BE NEAR KGRB BY 00Z MON. DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASINGLY            
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES 200-400 J/KG) WILL INCREASE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE             
TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WRN COUNTIES.                       
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE             
SLOWLY E REACHING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN            
BY LATE MON. LOOK FOR DEFORMATION PCPN TO WRAP BACK INTO MAINLY THE             
ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS ON THE                 
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF WILL ALSO AID CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY ENHANCE               
PCPN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR EASTERN AREAS INTO MON.                         
OTHERWISE...DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD                
END SHRA OVR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY MON.                                        
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN IN A NW FLOW WILL WARRANT MAINTAINING             
LOW CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM GLF ISSUANCE)...                                              
LOW PRES OF 29.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL              
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD...REACHING NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN             
AT 29.6 INCHES EARLY SUN MORNING...BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC              
AT 29.2 INCHES ON TUE MORNING. AS THIS LOW EXITS...HIGH PRES OF 29.8            
INCHES OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUE WILL EXPAND OVER THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES THROUGH WED.                                                              
WINDS ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE LAKE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TRICKY THIS            
MORNING...WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                   
STRETCHED ACROSS THE WEST PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE.  FOR THIS                  
ISSUANCE MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES...BUT DID INCREASE WIND/GUSTS ON               
MONDAY TO UP TO 30KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAFS)...                                                     
TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO KCMX AND HIGH               
CLOUDS AT KSAW. FEELING IS MORE OF THE SAME WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW              
CLOUDS AND FOG BEING ADVECTED INTO KCMX OVERNIGHT WITH EAST WINDS.              
LIFR CEIGS AND VIS...AND DO NOT SEE ANY IMPROVEMENTS THERE AS WINDS             
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIFR CEIGS AT KSAW                   
EXPECTED AS RAIN MOVES IN...POSSIBLY GOING TO MVFR WITH SOUTH                   
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF INCREASED FOG IF ITS ABLE TO             
ADVECT IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...VOSS                                                                   
AVIATION/MARINE...KF                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
319 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM GLF ISSUANCE)...                                              
LOW PRES OF 29.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL              
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD...REACHING NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN             
AT 29.6 INCHES EARLY SUN MORNING...BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC              
AT 29.2 INCHES ON TUE MORNING. AS THIS LOW EXITS...HIGH PRES OF 29.8            
INCHES OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUE WILL EXPAND OVER THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES THROUGH WED.                                                              
WINDS ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE LAKE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TRICKY THIS            
MORNING...WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                   
STRETCHED ACROSS THE WEST PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE.  FOR THIS                  
ISSUANCE MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES...BUT DID INCREASE WIND/GUSTS ON               
MONDAY TO UP TO 30KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAFS)...                                                     
TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO KCMX AND HIGH               
CLOUDS AT KSAW. FEELING IS MORE OF THE SAME WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW              
CLOUDS AND FOG BEING ADVECTED INTO KCMX OVERNIGHT WITH EAST WINDS.              
LIFR CEIGS AND VIS...AND DO NOT SEE ANY IMPROVEMENTS THERE AS WINDS             
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIFR CEIGS AT KSAW                   
EXPECTED AS RAIN MOVES IN...POSSIBLY GOING TO MVFR WITH SOUTH                   
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF INCREASED FOG IF ITS ABLE TO             
ADVECT IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                   
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 430 PM EDT JUN 1 2007                                  
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA TRENDS.                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL OVER             
CNTRL SD AND A RDG FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES.            
A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE SPOKE OVER ERN IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF                    
SHRA/TSRA  FROM SE MN THROUGH SW WI INTO WRN IL. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA                
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR KIMT IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LVL CONV WHERE             
SBCAPE VALUES HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 600 J/KG...PER LAPS ANALYSIS AND            
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE...CU FIELD REVEALED A WELL DEFINED                
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN.                 
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE ISOLD SHRA OVER SRN                
UPPER MI SHOULD DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...SCT SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE IA            
SHORTWAVE WILL MAY MOVE INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS             
EVENING. EXTRAPOLATION OF SHRTWV MOVEMENT AND MDLS CONSENSUS TIMING             
WOULD BRING THE BULK OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV THROUGH             
UPPER MI BTWN 06Z-12Z. SINCE THIS FEATURE SHOULD PIVOT MAINLY                   
NORTHWARD...LOWER OR NO POPS EXPECTED OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH                
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 5 C/KM AND LITTLE/NO ELEVATED CAPE              
WOULD NOT FAVOR TSTMS AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE                
STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV. GREATER CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD CUT                
DOWN ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG COVERAGE/INTENSITY.                         
SAT...SOME LEFTOVER PCPN MAY LINGER DURING THE MORNING AS THE FIRST             
SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ARE                  
EXPECTED EVEN IF THERE IS A LULL BEFORE ANY ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS MOVE             
TOWARD THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES. INCREASING              
DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AND LOW LVL CONV NEAR THE SFC TROF SHOULD               
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA BY MID AFTERNOON.                    
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                      
UPPER LOW SLOWLY FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES               
REGION SAT NIGHT. THE LOW PROBABLY WILL NOT COMPLETELY LOSE ITS GRIP            
ON WEATHER OVER CWA UNTIL LATER TUE. LOTS OF CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW             
MOVES ACROSS. PCPN LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT DRIVEN BY THETA-E                   
ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HINT OF A DRY SLOT COMING                 
ACROSS LATER SAT NIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF SUN. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER             
LOW STILL TO THE WEST...CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME PCPN EVEN DURING THAT             
TIME AS THERE MAY BE OTHER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVES LIFTING              
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. LATEST NAM INDICATES ONE SUCH WAVE. DRYING                 
ALOFT...LINGERING SFC DEWPOINTS 55-60F...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD                 
LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. EVENTUALLY ...DIURNAL HEATING AND              
LIFT FM MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS               
AREA ON SUN. EXPECTED POSITION OF UPPER LOW AND GREATER LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE FAVORS THE SOUTH INTO THE EAST CWA FOR HIGHEST POPS. TROUGH            
AXIS GRINDS EAST SUN NIGHT TO A POSITION CENTERED OVR NORTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN TO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MON. DEFORMATION PCPN THAT IS OVR            
LK SUPERIOR SUN MAY SINK ACROSS EASTERN CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON.                 
CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO ENHANCE PCPN. RAISED POPS               
FOR EASTERN AREAS INTO MON. OTHERWISE...DRYING WILL STEADILY WORK IN            
FM THE NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO END POPS OVR WEST LATE SUN               
NIGHT.                                                                          
TROUGH CONTINUES TO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF THE REGION BY WED. THIS             
SLOW EJECTION IS DUE IN PART TO AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS               
INTO THE TROUGH LATE MON INTO TUE FM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS IDEA IS               
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE               
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA MON NIGHT-TUE                   
(ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE) AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME                    
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS            
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS AND MUCH WARMER AIR              
MAKES MOVE FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES QUICKLY. NEED TO            
KEEP EYE ON TUE NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED            
AS PWAT MINIMUM DRIFTS ACROSS. TRENDED IN DIRECTION OF COOP MOS                 
WHICH SHOWED FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 30S. RECORDS              
FOR THIS DATE SOLIDLY IN THE 20S...EVEN AN UPPER TEENS READING AT               
CHAMPION. SO...AROUND 30 INTO LWR 30S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF                   
POSSIBILITY.                                                                    
THE SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WED-THU COULD TRIP OFF SOME                  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED INTO THU. HPC FAVORED 00Z/12Z                 
ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCES OF PCPN THU JUST AHEAD OF                
WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND...                    
00Z/06Z/12Z GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW A MUCH MORE SLUGGISH SYSTEM FOR               
LATE WEEK WITH RAIN POSSIBILITY LINGERING INTO FRI. ZONAL FLOW                  
EXPECTED...SO WILL GO WITH HPC/ECWMF SOLUTION AND HAVE A DRY FCST               
NEXT FRI.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB/JLA                                                            
MARINE...KF                                                                     
AVIATION...GM/KF                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1250 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAFS)...                                                     
TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO KCMX AND HIGH               
CLOUDS AT KSAW. FEELING IS MORE OF THE SAME WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW              
CLOUDS AND FOG BEING ADVECTED INTO KCMX OVERNIGHT WITH EAST WINDS.              
LIFR CEIGS AND VIS...AND DO NOT SEE ANY IMPROVEMENTS THERE AS WINDS             
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIFR CEIGS AT KSAW                   
EXPECTED AS RAIN MOVES IN...POSSIBLY GOING TO MVFR WITH SOUTH                   
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF INCREASED FOG IF ITS ABLE TO             
ADVECT IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                   
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 430 PM EDT JUN 1 2007                                  
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA TRENDS.                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL OVER             
CNTRL SD AND A RDG FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES.            
A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE SPOKE OVER ERN IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF                    
SHRA/TSRA  FROM SE MN THROUGH SW WI INTO WRN IL. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA                
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR KIMT IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LVL CONV WHERE             
SBCAPE VALUES HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 600 J/KG...PER LAPS ANALYSIS AND            
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE...CU FIELD REVEALED A WELL DEFINED                
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN.                 
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE ISOLD SHRA OVER SRN                
UPPER MI SHOULD DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...SCT SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE IA            
SHORTWAVE WILL MAY MOVE INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS             
EVENING. EXTRAPOLATION OF SHRTWV MOVEMENT AND MDLS CONSENSUS TIMING             
WOULD BRING THE BULK OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV THROUGH             
UPPER MI BTWN 06Z-12Z. SINCE THIS FEATURE SHOULD PIVOT MAINLY                   
NORTHWARD...LOWER OR NO POPS EXPECTED OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH                
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 5 C/KM AND LITTLE/NO ELEVATED CAPE              
WOULD NOT FAVOR TSTMS AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE                
STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV. GREATER CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD CUT                
DOWN ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG COVERAGE/INTENSITY.                         
SAT...SOME LEFTOVER PCPN MAY LINGER DURING THE MORNING AS THE FIRST             
SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ARE                  
EXPECTED EVEN IF THERE IS A LULL BEFORE ANY ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS MOVE             
TOWARD THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES. INCREASING              
DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AND LOW LVL CONV NEAR THE SFC TROF SHOULD               
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA BY MID AFTERNOON.                    
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                      
UPPER LOW SLOWLY FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES               
REGION SAT NIGHT. THE LOW PROBABLY WILL NOT COMPLETELY LOSE ITS GRIP            
ON WEATHER OVER CWA UNTIL LATER TUE. LOTS OF CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW             
MOVES ACROSS. PCPN LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT DRIVEN BY THETA-E                   
ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HINT OF A DRY SLOT COMING                 
ACROSS LATER SAT NIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF SUN. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER             
LOW STILL TO THE WEST...CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME PCPN EVEN DURING THAT             
TIME AS THERE MAY BE OTHER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVES LIFTING              
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. LATEST NAM INDICATES ONE SUCH WAVE. DRYING                 
ALOFT...LINGERING SFC DEWPOINTS 55-60F...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD                 
LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. EVENTUALLY ...DIURNAL HEATING AND              
LIFT FM MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS               
AREA ON SUN. EXPECTED POSITION OF UPPER LOW AND GREATER LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE FAVORS THE SOUTH INTO THE EAST CWA FOR HIGHEST POPS. TROUGH            
AXIS GRINDS EAST SUN NIGHT TO A POSITION CENTERED OVR NORTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN TO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MON. DEFORMATION PCPN THAT IS OVR            
LK SUPERIOR SUN MAY SINK ACROSS EASTERN CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON.                 
CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO ENHANCE PCPN. RAISED POPS               
FOR EASTERN AREAS INTO MON. OTHERWISE...DRYING WILL STEADILY WORK IN            
FM THE NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO END POPS OVR WEST LATE SUN               
NIGHT.                                                                          
TROUGH CONTINUES TO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF THE REGION BY WED. THIS             
SLOW EJECTION IS DUE IN PART TO AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS               
INTO THE TROUGH LATE MON INTO TUE FM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS IDEA IS               
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE               
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA MON NIGHT-TUE                   
(ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE) AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME                    
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS            
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS AND MUCH WARMER AIR              
MAKES MOVE FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES QUICKLY. NEED TO            
KEEP EYE ON TUE NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED            
AS PWAT MINIMUM DRIFTS ACROSS. TRENDED IN DIRECTION OF COOP MOS                 
WHICH SHOWED FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 30S. RECORDS              
FOR THIS DATE SOLIDLY IN THE 20S...EVEN AN UPPER TEENS READING AT               
CHAMPION. SO...AROUND 30 INTO LWR 30S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF                   
POSSIBILITY.                                                                    
THE SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WED-THU COULD TRIP OFF SOME                  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED INTO THU. HPC FAVORED 00Z/12Z                 
ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCES OF PCPN THU JUST AHEAD OF                
WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND...                    
00Z/06Z/12Z GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW A MUCH MORE SLUGGISH SYSTEM FOR               
LATE WEEK WITH RAIN POSSIBILITY LINGERING INTO FRI. ZONAL FLOW                  
EXPECTED...SO WILL GO WITH HPC/ECWMF SOLUTION AND HAVE A DRY FCST               
NEXT FRI.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)...                            
GENERALLY WEAK ERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH WAVES 2 FT OR LESS EXCEPT            
OVER THE FAR WEST END WHERE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER ERN MN AND                 
ASSOCIATED PRES FALLS ALONG WITH TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO               
STRONGER NE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES BY LATE TONIGHT AND SAT.            
SO...LEANED TOWARD THE RUC13 WHICH DISPLAYED THIS SCENARIO BEST.                
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRY ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL PCPN                     
EXPECTED...AREA OF FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. BY SUN...THE FASTER            
GFS WAS FAVORED WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND STRONGER            
N WINDS ON SUN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...JLB                                                         
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...GM/KF                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL M                            
1200 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                      
...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...                                               
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                            
/900 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007/                                                     
CURRENT RADAR INDICATING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG                
MO/KS BORDER AND ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER. SUNSET AND HIGHER STABILITY             
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL WEAKENING OF                  
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING THIS               
TREND AS WELL. STILL...DECENT THETA E ADVECTION SHOWING UP IN MODELS            
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE GENERALLY JUST            
OVER HALF AN INCH FOR ONE HOUR...WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE                
UNTIL MIDNIGHT SHIFT ARRIVES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING             
FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ON TRACK. ADOLPHSON                          
/339 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007/                                                     
MCV THAT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS                  
MORNING HAS NOW PUSHED INTO EASTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING A                 
FAIRLY WORKED OVER BL ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI.           
HOWEVER...SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH           
19Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN            
KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CU                   
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE               
LINE. A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA              
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE SFC TDS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO           
UPPER 60S. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH HIGHEST THETA E WHICH THE LATEST             
RUC SHOWS MAKING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHWARD PUSH BY THIS                  
EVENING.                                                                        
RECENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW              
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AN OVERALL GENERAL            
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MOST IMPRESSIVE CELL ATTM WAS JUST SOUTH OF               
WICHITA ALONG THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT FROM THIS MORNINGS            
CONVECTION. THIS CELL SEEMS TO BE FEEDING OFF OF RICHER THETA E AIR             
MASS TO ITS SOUTH DESPITE MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF                   
30-35KTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND LOOKS TO PUSH INTO KANSAS AND                   
MISSOURI DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. APPEARS ATTM THAT THE                   
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.            
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT                  
WITHIN THICKENING CU FIELD ACROSS NORTHERN MO...HOWEVER WINDOW OF               
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIR MASS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PEAK HEATING IS               
QUICKLY DIMINISHING. NEVERTHELESS...WITH MODEL DISCREPANCY                      
CONTINUING AND FAIRLY LOW FFG VALUES ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN                
TIER COUNTIES...OPTED TO ONLY REMOVE 7 OF THE NORTHWEST MO COUNTIES             
FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.                                                     
OVERALL...BELIEVE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH              
WORKED OVER AIR MASS. HOWEVER...FEEL ANY OPPORTUNITY WOULD EXIST                
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I70 CLOSER TO RICHER THETA E ADVECTION. IN                   
ADDITION...AS MORE ROBUST CELLS NEAR WICHITA PUSH EAST                          
NORTHEAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TIME AS              
DEEP NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST AND 50+ KT H5 JET             
STREAK SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO TONIGHT. WILL HAVE            
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA FOR MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT            
THROUGH THE EVENING.                                                            
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW                
ALLOWING THE SFC COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY                  
TOMORROW NIGHT. BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A SLOWER PROCESS THAN PREVIOUSLY            
THOUGHT AND HAVE THEREFORE HELD ON TO POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE              
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.           
SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN            
MO SATURDAY AS CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM MAKES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS.                 
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH               
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS BY SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY VORT MAX                 
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTED UPPER LOW.                      
HOWEVER...DETAILS ON THIS DISTURBANCE ARE UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT WITH            
CURRENT MODEL INDICATIONS AND WILL ONLY KEEP LOW POPS ATTM.                     
DEROCHE                                                                         
EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                             
EVOLUTION OF THE BREAKDOWN OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS              
THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN CONUS WILL THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM IN              
THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF             
NEXT WEEK SHOWING STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH               
AMPLITUDE...SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO            
NRN ALASKA. THIS IS WHERE ANY SEMBLANCE OF MODEL CONFIDENCE                     
DETERIORATES RAPIDLY. GFS CONTINUITY IS RATHER POOR...WITH THE                  
NORMALLY CONSISTENT ECMWF EVEN SHOWING GREATER THAN NORMAL                      
FLUCTUATIONS. GFS ENSEMBLES OFFER LITTLE HELP WITH A SEASONABLY                 
LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                             
WEAK NWLY FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING                    
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPERATURES VERY             
NEAR THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGES. GRADUAL WARMING LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET             
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AHEAD OF THE            
DIGGING WRN CONUS TROUGH. IN ADDITION...WITH THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER            
THE ROCKIES PRIOR TO MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...FINALLY A MORE ROBUST             
EML WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH GFS FORECASTING +12C TO +14C H7            
TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WAA SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUES NIGHT AS THIS LAYER QUICKLY ADVECTS TOWARDS              
THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HAVE NOT RAISED POPS                   
SUFFICIENTLY TO MENTION IN ZONES AS THETA-E AND ISENTROPIC SURFACES             
HINT THAT FOCUS MAY BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBR/IOWA.                            
DID NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THUNDER MENTION FOR THE END OF THE                
WEEK GIVEN OVERALL MODEL UNCERTAINTY. GIVEN THE SEASONAL TREND THIS             
YEAR...FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION OF A MORE CUTOFF FEATURE MAY BE THE                
BEST OPTION...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS MODEL IS MORE              
QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY IF ONE BUYS THE CUTOFF SOLUTION.                      
ALSO...GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...FEEL IT WILL               
NECESSITATE STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO BREAK               
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.                                                          
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE            
TO MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS AND              
VISIBILITIES WILL BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS LIGHT WINDS SETTLE OVER THE AREA...SOME PATCHY            
FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE ST JOSEPH AREA AND BRING DOWN THE VISIBILTY             
TO AROUND 3 MILES UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. ADOLPHSON                                
DEROCHE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-            
     MOZ008-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-MOZ021-                   
     MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-                   
     MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-                   
     MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.                                               
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-            
     KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
310 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LOW                
SPINNING OVR CNTRL IA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE                   
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP               
AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF VORT LOBE SPINNING AROUND COLD CORE UPPER                  
LOW AND AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.         
WL LINGER POPS IN THE EAST THRU 03Z AS SYSTEM EXITS INTO WI BY                  
00Z. HAVE GONE ON A COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR                  
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.                                                     
NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY RIDING DOWN THE                         
UPPER RIDGE OVR NRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS IS FORECAST TO             
MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND PUSH A WEAK SFC FNT INTO                 
NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN COLLABORATION WITH              
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE INCREASED POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING AS OMEGA VALUES INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND COULD              
SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK OFF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN OUR                 
NERN COUNTIES.                                                                  
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET            
DAY WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND NAM              
DEVELOP MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL NEB TUE EVENING AND SPREAD IT                 
ESE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEB/SWRN IA. STRONG NOCTURNAL LLVL JET WL                
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THIS MCS THRU THE NIGHT AND SHOULD HELP                   
SUSTAIN ACTIVITY INTO WED MORNING WITH SERN NEB/NERN KS/NWRN MO SEEING          
HIGHEST QPF VALUES. RIVERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN THIS AREA AND              
THE MO MAIN STEM AT NEB CITY AND RULO JUST FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE               
SATURDAY MORNING SO WL KEEP CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENT AND FORECAST QPF.           
WK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CNTRL PLAINS LATE                                    
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AHEAD OF CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING ONTO THE               
WA/OR COAST. STRONG RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                
WHILE LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.                   
GREAT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS CYCLONE AND                        
ASSOCIATED WMFNT AND DRYLINE WL SET UP DURING THE DAY BUT BOTTOM                
LINE IS THAT WX SHOULD BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH STRONG LLVL MOIST                
ADVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.                                              
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN               
ACTIVE TIME AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS AND               
CDFNT PUSHES THRU FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH MAIN SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVING WELL TO THE EAST THIS                   
MORNING...ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED OUT OF THE CWA              
OR DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS             
ROTATING SOUTH AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND WILL SPREAD BAND            
OF BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z. CYCLONIC              
FLOW AROUND LOW COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY BRING                  
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BUT HAVE NOT               
MENTIONED IN TAFS WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE BEING ISOLATED AT BEST.                
BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD CENTRAL IOWA AND EAST.                      
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS/DERGAN                                                                  
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV                                                
220 AM PDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH              
SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING                         
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                   
MOVING INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY WILL CAUSE A RETURN TO                 
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING SOME             
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING            
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.             
THIS INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT T-STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN           
NV TODAY...SO EXPECTING ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING T-STORM ACTIVITY             
TO PRIMARILY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. 00Z KLKN SOUNDING SHOWED A            
PW VALUE AROUND 0.50 OF AN INCH LAST EVENING...WHICH CERTAINLY                  
FAVORS DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW                 
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WHERE BOTH              
THE NAM12 AND RUC40 ARE FORECASTING PW`S OF 0.60-0.65 OF AN INCH. BY            
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO WHITE PINE AND                
EASTERN ELKO COUNTIES AS THIS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD.             
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AS STRONG             
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MCGEE                                    
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS COMING INTO                  
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS CWA WHICH WILL BE                 
ACTIVE FOR THE EXTENDED.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES COME WITH TIMING OF              
EACH TROUGH. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF AND                   
CANADIAN ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE WITH FEATURES.  WILL LEAN TOWARD             
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY                
FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.                  
EXPECT AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA WILL BE WINDY              
AND DRY ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO POSSIBLY BE MET WHILE COLD            
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF CWA DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON.  MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH INSTABILITY TUE...BUT GIVEN                 
STRENGTH OF FRONT...THINK THUNDER IS STILL A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY               
AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WET NORTH.                
COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE                
WEEK.  LOOKS LIKE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED BUT HIGHS WILL            
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH WARMER THAN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.               
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW                   
SOMETIME THU AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NV FRI AND BRING                   
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS.  THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP                  
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NORTH OF HWY 50.  TEMPERATURES WILL                  
CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN THE LAST WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW            
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR               
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR SAT BUT NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE              
AND CWA WILL LIKELY START TO FEEL THE EFFECTS FROM THIS ONE SAT                 
NIGHT INTO SUN. JMG                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS                    
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHOULD                 
REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF A KBAM-KTPH LINE. AGAIN WIND GUSTS             
IN EXCESS OF 40KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.           
JMG &&                                                                          
.FIRE WEATHER...AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT T-STORM ACTIVITY            
ACROSS WESTERN NV TODAY...SO EXPECTING ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING               
T-STORM ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.                
BY MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO WHITE PINE AND             
EASTERN ELKO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL               
THROUGH MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A               
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL              
BRING INCREASING WINDS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. AT THIS TIME IT              
APPEARS LIKE FIRE WEATHER ZONES 455 AND 457 WILL MEET RED FLAG                  
CRITERIA FOR WINDS AND RH...SO DAYSHIFT WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUING A              
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY. MCGEE &&                                        
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
</pre> nv                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
938 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF RED RIVER IS RETREATING TOWARDS                 
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS WHICH WOULD CLEAR THE SHOWERS FROM CWA AT                 
LEAST BY 18Z. SO WAS ABLE TO TRIM THE SHOWERS EASTWARD A LITTLE                 
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES              
WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST CLEARED.                                           
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH AT                   
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MB IS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS...MOST ARE VERY                 
LIKELY VIRGA. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP WELL AT 700 MB IN RUC AND                 
GFS. IT WAS ABSENT IN 06Z NAM AND INITIALIZED IT AT 12Z THEN                    
WASHED IT OUT BY 18Z. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SEVERAL HUNDRED                  
J/KG OF BL CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL REACH                
THE CONVECTIVE TEMEPRATURE IN THE UPPER 70S. ISOLATED THUNDER                   
STILL LOOKS PROBABLE. DVL BASIN APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TO FIRE                 
UP STORMS SINCE THEY WILL BE ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THE               
LONGEST (STARTING ABOUT 18Z) BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP LIFT                   
AREAS FARTHER WEST MORE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN WILL MOVE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW              
OVER NORTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND ESTABLISH OVER HUDSON BAY              
WITH WAVE ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM. RIDGE BUILDING WILL OCCUR OVER                
INITIALLY WESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN US THEN DEVELOP AN OMEGA               
BLOCK OVER NORTHWEST CANADA. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US WILL            
SHIFT EAST BY END THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LOW UNDERCUTS RIDGE IN THE               
WESTERN US. FOG LOOP SHOWS WEST EDGE OF CLOUD DECK RUN FROM NEAR ROX            
TO FINGAL ND.                                                                   
PRECIPITATION UNDER 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE                  
SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER AFTERNOON HEATING MAY PRODUCE             
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE MAY KILL THREAT OF PRECIP. WILL KEEP              
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR TODAY.                                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LOWERED TEMPS FOR THU.                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CIGS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MOVE               
OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CREATE                   
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                          
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SARGENT...RANSOM...RICHLAND COUNTIES.             
MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR WILKIN AND GRANT COUNTIES.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
840 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
OUTER BANDS OF SHRA/ISOLD T CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH            
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CURRENT TRENDS WILL BE ABLE TO LOWER              
POPS ACROSS MOST OF AREA. RUC DOING A GOOD JOB DEPICTING MID LEVEL              
DRYING/CLEARING WHICH IS MOVING INTO FAR NW FA SO WILL DROP POPS AFT            
MIDNIGHT OVER DVL BASIN AND LOWER SKY COVER SOME. WITH RECENT                   
RAINFALL AND WEAK FLOW WILL ADD PATCHY BR TO MOST AREAS.                        
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING CLOUD/CLEARING                
TRENDS SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THERE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLD MVFR CIGS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WITH REMAINDER OF FA             
VFR AND EXPECT TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SARGENT...RANSOM...RICHLAND COUNTIES.             
MN...AREAS FLOOD WARNINGS FOR RICHLAND AND GRANT COUNTIES.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
340 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...RUC CAUGHT THE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS/                
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT DEVELOPED FROM GFK TO ROX WITH STRONG 850                 
MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE 300 MB DIVERGENCE...WITHIN 2                  
HOURS AFTER REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER BAND IS                   
TRYING TO DEVELOP A LITTLE EAST OF DVL BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH                
UPPER DIVERGENCE TO FIRE IT UP. BELIEVE THE BULK OF THUNDER WILL                
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A WET GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL              
TURN IT MORE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF                    
SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN HAS NOT WARMED ENOUGH TO GET                   
STRONG CONVECTION DUE THE ALL DAY SHOWERS THERE. RUC SHIFTS THE                 
850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS TO SOUTH OF A FAR-FSE LINE              
BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND THEN TO CWA SOUTHEAST FRINGE BY 06Z.                        
HEAVY OVERNIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST              
CENTRAL MN PROMPTED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING AND SEVERAL RIVER GAGES              
TO HEAD TOWARDS MAJOR FLOODING. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IS A CONCERN                
BUT SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS OVERALL TONIGHT.                              
ON SUNDAY ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND HIGH DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN TO                 
PROBABLY POP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BUT SOME DRY                 
ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ARRIVING WILL END                  
THEM BEFORE EVENING.                                                            
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID WEEK                   
FORECASTS...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS                  
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN              
THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS              
THE AREA... LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS THE REGION                 
FRIDAY... THUS REMOVED POPS FRI/SAT. TEMPS APPEARED TO BE ON TARGET             
SO NO CHANGES.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER INCREASING CU              
DEVELOPMENT WILL PROVIDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA                
LEADING TO MVFR. LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL             
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SARGENT...RANSOM...RICHLAND COUNTIES.             
MN...AREAS FLOOD WARNINGS FOR RICHLAND AND GRANT COUNTIES.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV/JK                                                                           
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
119 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INTERACT                 
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TODAY AND MONDAY. COOLER AND                 
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
OTHER THAN JUST SOME -SHRA NORTHWEST OF CMH METRO...FCST AREA PCPN              
FREE ATTM. CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH VORT THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF ERN                
FCST AREA EARLIER THIS MRNG HAS NOW MOVED INTO NRN OHIO. RAIN                   
GAUGE ANALYSIS OVER SOUTH CNTRL OH INDCG THIS BROUGHT SOME                      
BENEFICIAL RAINS FROM SCIOTO CO NORTH INTO ROSS AND PICKAWAY COS                
WITH SVRL LOCATIONS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES. FAIRLY THICK MID LVL                  
DECK ACRS FCST AREA THIS MRNG WAS HAMPERING WARMING...WITH TEMPS                
MAINLY IN THE L/M70S.                                                           
FCST AREA IS IN A LULL BUT EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTN AS               
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN INDIANA APPCHS WESTERN FCST AREA              
BY LATE AFTN. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS INDCG NICE LO LVL CONV AXIS                  
DVLPG IN TANDEM WITH A SHOT OF MID LVL PVA AHEAD OF FRNTL BNDRY BY              
20-21Z ACRS WESTERN FCST AREA. CURRENT VIS SAT INDCG BREAKS IN AC               
AS CLOSE AS KIND AND KSDF...AND EXPECT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT                
OF SUNSHINE ACRS WESTERN 1/2 FCST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.               
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE AVAIL INSTABILITY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG                     
MLCAPE DVLPG BY MID AFTN. THIS IS ALL POINTING TO QUICK CONVECTIVE              
DVLPMNT ACRS WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTN AND SHIFTING EAST                 
ACRS REST OF THE FCST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO ALIGN WITH              
THIS THINKING...WITH LKLY TO CAT POPS WARRANTED BY MID/LATE AFTN.               
MAX DELTA THETA-E VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN SAT AND WITH                
CLOUDS SUPPRESSING HEATING...SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK ISOLD              
THIS AFTN. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY                   
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL (AND MUCH NEEDED AT THAT) AS MAIN                 
THREATS...AS PROGGED STORM MOTION REMAINS ~10KTS. SLIGHTLY BETTER               
BL SHEAR VALUES AND FORCING ASSOCD WITH FRNTL BNDRY SHOULD ENSURE               
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZATION TO STORMS AND ALLOW THEM TO LAST WELL              
INTO THE EVNG HOURS. STORMS SHOULD DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT AS FORCING                
WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.                                             
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                      
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
H5 LOW BEGINS TO FILL SUN NGT INTO MON. THE SYSTEM IS STILL                     
ORGANIZED ENUF TO SWING H5 S/W ACROSS THE OH VLY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD            
KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTM ON MONDAY. THE BACK AND OF THE SYSTEM            
SHOULD BE PUSHING THRU TUE MRNG. REGION REMAINS IN NW ON TUE...BUT              
WEAK SFC HI BUILDS IN TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD HELP END THE PCPN.                
DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR FORM MAV MOS TODAY THRU MON NGT. WENT WITH THE              
WARMER MET HIGH FOR TUE.                                                        
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A NWRLY FLOW PATTERN BRIEFLY WITH               
A SFC RIDGE BLDG IN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WL ALLOW FOR DRY WX                
AND MORE SEASONABLY TEMPS. THESE SEASONABLE TEMPS WL BE SHORT                   
LIVED WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS                  
HIGH ON THU. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF FROM THE SE               
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TO TRACK INTO THE                  
GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. A              
SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LAY OUT E-W AND              
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WL THEREFORE                     
CONTINUE A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SAT.                              
GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS AT OR A LTL ABOVE MEX GUID THRU THE PERIOD.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
FCST AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH AC/CI SHIELD FROM REMNANTS OF BARRY.               
CLOUDS ARE THINNING THOUGH...AND WDLY SCT CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO               
FIRE JUST WEST OF REGION ACRS CNTRL/NRN INDIANA WHERE THERE IS                  
GREATER INSTABILITY DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE. COLD FRONT EXTNDG SOUTH               
FROM NRN ILLINOIS INTO WRN KY/TN.                                               
ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS AFTN PROGRESSES.                  
NICE LO LVL CONV AND MID LVL PVA AXIS SET UP OVER WESTERN FCST                  
AREA BY LATE AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING FORCING DUE TO                 
APPCHG FRNTL BNDRY WILL ENABLE SCT TO NMRS TSTMS TO DVLP ACRS                   
TERMINALS. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE AFTN...AND               
INTRODUCED FOUR HOUR TEMPOS WHEN TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD HAVE THE                  
GREATEST IMPACT AT EACH TERMINAL. KCVG/KLUK/KDAY WILL BE AFFECTED               
INITIALLY BY 20-21Z WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST TO AFFECT                      
KILN/KCMH/KLCK INTO THE ERLY EVNG. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE                 
WITHIN TSTMS. FRNTL BNDRY BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES INTO               
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. FORCING DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH                       
INSTABILITY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WX AT                
THE TERMINALS FROM LATE EVNG ON OTHER THAN A RENEGADE -SHRA. CU/SC              
MAY SCATTER OUT AFT MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KCVG AND KLUK AS                 
DRIER AIR BRIEFLY WORKS INTO REGION. LESS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS                
SHOULD PROMOTE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS NEAR                     
DAYBREAK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS AT KLUK.                                
UPR LO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY AS                
SFC LO INTENSIFIES OVER CNTRL GRT LKS. WEAK LO LVL CAA AND                      
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT/BKN CU TO DVLP QUICKLY                
MON MRNG. SCT CONVECTION WILL DVLP AGAIN BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT                  
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND OR AFT 18Z MON.                                          
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY                  
TUESDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.                                                  
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
202 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS                    
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT OVER WILL PUSH INTO ILLINOIS TONIGHT...THEN               
INTO OHIO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE               
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE ILN                 
FORECAST AREA. AXIS OF CONVECTION THAT THAT HAS EXTENDED NE                     
THROUGH INDIANA HAS ALSO BEEN WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME                
HEATING. WITH LACK OF ANY REAL ORGANIZED FORCING...HAVE DROPPED                 
POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT                    
HOURS. RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING ROTATING                
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER                      
TONIGHT. FEEL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE IN HELPING TO                
INITIATE CONVECTION THAT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PROVIDED FOR                 
OUR EAST FOR MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                          
WITH SURFACE LOW PROVIDING CONVERGENCE AND LIFT...COUPLED WITH                  
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.              
A MODEST AMOUNT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR...WITH RATHER                 
WEAK WIND FIELDS THE LIMITING FACTOR.                                           
REMNANTS OF TS BARRY WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING                
IN FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.               
THOUGH SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE                
DUE TO LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS                  
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.                                               
AFTER TWO WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE MADE IT                 
FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE...READINGS WILL FALL               
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT FORECAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH                
MAY BE BRINGING IN THE COOLER AIR TOO QUICKLY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
UPPER TROF WL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD              
AS REMNANTS OF THE SE TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKS THRU THE NE US.  A SFC             
COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE OH VALLEY WL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE            
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.                            
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A NWRLY FLOW PATTERN BRIEFLY WITH A             
SFC RIDGE BLDG IN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WL ALLOW FOR DRY WX AND              
MORE SEASONABLY TEMPS. THESE SEASONABLE TEMPS WL BE SHORT LIVED WITH            
A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH ON THU.                
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF FROM THE SE THRU THE GREAT             
LAKES ON THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT             
FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. A SFC COLD FRONT TO                
DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LAY OUT E-W AND WEAKEN AS IT                   
ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WL THEREFORE CONTINUE A CHC OF                
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SAT.                                                
GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS AT OR A LTL ABOVE MEX GUID THRU THE PERIOD.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
A LITTLE MORE TO GO OFF OF THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY              
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. H5 VORT WORKING                
DUE N INTO ERN OH FROM THE REMNANTS OF BARRY MAY SPARK A FEW                    
STORMS JUST E OF SCIOTO VALLEY EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT              
WORK INTO CWA AS THERE IS A SLIGHTLY UNFAVORABLE AREA OF DOWNWARD               
MOTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM AND THE ONE WORKING IN FROM THE              
WEST LATER IN THE DAY.                                                          
TO THE WEST...A H5 LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS CHITOWN AS A SFC LOW AND              
SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHVLY JUST AHEAD OF               
IT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL               
LIKELY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MODELS STARTING OVER WESTERN              
TAF SITES AROUND 18Z...WORKING INTO ERN TAF SITES AFTER ABOUT 0Z.               
H5 LOW SPINS SOME VERY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM SW-NE AFTER 0Z              
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ABOVE 5KFT.                                              
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM                      
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                      
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
1021 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND THE               
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER               
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LATEST VIS SAT THIS MORNING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE               
FORECAST AREA. SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVED THROUGH NW               
PA EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK VORT MAX...BUT THAT HAS SINCE               
MOVED EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH THAT UPDATED TO REMOVE SLGT                 
CHC MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.                                 
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS OF MID MORNING...EXPECTING               
SKIES CU TO DEVELOP AS WE GO THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY                       
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED                   
TEMPS TO QUICKLY CLIMB ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH A                
FEW LOCATIONS ALREADY READING 80 AS OF 10 AM. DEWPOINTS ALSO IN                 
LOWER 60S. INCREASING TEMPS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ALREADY IN                 
PLACE WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AROUND THE AREA INTO THE                        
AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED WITH CAPES BETWEEN                  
1500 AND 2000 J/KG AND LI/S -2 TO -5 CONTINUED WITH 30-40 POPS                  
ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH ACTIVITY BEING              
CONVECTIVE WANTED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.                 
WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO SEE HOW                     
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BECOMES...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL STICK WITH THE              
CHC POPS.                                                                       
TEMPS IN UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR WESTERN ZONES LOOKS GOOD                    
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG LAKESHORE OF FAR NE OH AND NW PA TEMPS                
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BUT MAY LEVEL OUT IN              
MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WIND BECOMES A BIT ONSHORE.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE                
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SLOWLY SUNDAY AND                
SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE               
WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE                    
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.                                           
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE                      
FEATURES IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.                
ACTIVITY COULD POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AS WELL.               
AMPLE FLOW OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHEAST OUT OF THE                  
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDED THAT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF COAST STATES              
DOES NOT DEVELOP AND CUT OFF FLUX OF MOISTURE.                                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCH DURING THE                 
DAY SUNDAY. I ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME                   
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL JET IS AROUND 13 KNOTS SO STORMS ARE                 
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW MOVERS.                                              
STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
WILL HAVE TO GET UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. MODELS TRENDING              
TOWARD MONDAY AS BEING THE LAST DAY WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCD                 
DIRECTLY WITH UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL LINGER. ALL MODELS BRING ANOTHER            
STRONG SHORT WAVE AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY            
AND ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AND               
UNSTABLE AND WILL PROBABLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON               
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE COOL ON TUESDAY AS I DOUBT                
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING UNTIL STRONGER FRONT PASSES AND               
HOPEFULLY WILL BRING A BONIFIDE CHANGE OF AIR MASS AND TUE NGT AND              
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID.                             
TURN AROUND WILL APPARENTLY BE QUICK THOUGH AND RETURN FLOW SEEMS               
TO DEVELOP RIGHT AWAY THURSDAY. ECMWF FASTER BRINGING WARMER AIR                
BACK AND LATEST GFS COMING AROUND...WILL GO A BIT WARMER THAN                   
GUIDANCE THURSDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 80S AT LEAST                 
WEST HALF. MODELS HINT AT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION                   
TSTORMS THURSDAY BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL NEXT COLD FRONT                   
BEGINS TO APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND HIGHER POPS              
FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST. OF COURSE NO                    
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS FAR AHEAD BUT THAT IS THE NATURE OF THE               
7 DAY DETERMINISTIC FCST AND WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN OHIO.                
THE NAM ANALYZED THIS FEATURE AND IT BECOMES A TIGGER FOR                       
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/NW PA THIS MORNING. LATEST IR                 
IMAGERY SUGGEST SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA SO IT SEEMS               
REASONABLE THAT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL POP UP IN THE              
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING.       
WL THEREFORE INCLUDE VCSH BY 14Z FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS                 
MORNING.                                                                        
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH                
THE BEST CHANCE CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST                
AREA. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD                     
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM                 
THE WEST LATE BRININGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS                   
ACROSS WESTERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT. VSBYS SHOULD ALSO LOWER TO MVFR               
AT ALL SITES AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED THIS                   
AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE INCLUDING CLE AND ERI.                                  
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH WEAK              
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A SECONDARY                    
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
QUIET MORNING ON THE LAKE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. EXPECT WINDS TO               
TURN ONSHORE NEARSHORE AND BECOME VARIABLE OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN THIS             
AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER LAND TODAY WITH A WEAK                       
DISTURBANCE SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE WATERS               
FROM THE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO               
THE REGION ON SUNDAY THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO             
THE WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NO LAKE BREEZE ACTIVITY. IN                   
ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALL            
DAY SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THRU MONDAY                             
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO TURN NW AND INCREASE TO             
10-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE AT LEAST POSSIBLE MON             
NIGHT TUE MAINLY FOR WAVES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY                                                             
NEAR TERM...ABE                                                                 
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY                                                           
LONG TERM...KOSARIK                                                             
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
712 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA AS               
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAZY...WARM AND                    
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALL WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS                
AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. TROPICAL                 
STORM /AT LEAST THE REMNANTS OF/ BARRY WILL SLIDE UP THE EASTERN                
SEABOARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN FOR              
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.                  
THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT                  
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN                    
NEARER OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF                
THE WORK WEEK.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...                                        
THE LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE LED TO A VERY FOGGY                
MORNING FOR THOSE WHO RECEIVED RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HRS. WILL                    
BE POSTING A DENSE FOG ADVSIORY FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA...AS                 
CLOUDS IN SE LEAVING AND IT SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AND A BIT                
MORE DENSE THAN WHAT IT IS RIGHT NOW. FOG MAY BURN AWAY SLOWLY                  
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OUT THERE AND ALL NIGHT TO GET THICK...BUT                
EVEN WITHOUT MUCH WIND...IT SHOULD BE BETTER BY 10 OR 11 AM.                    
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN MTS SEEM TO BE ALONG AN AXIS               
OF MSTR CONVERGENCE NOTED BY RUC. THESE SHOWERS STILL HAVE SOME                 
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH DUE TO COOL UPPER TEMPS AND HIGH MSTR AT               
THE SFC.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                        
HAZY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED                   
STRONG /AND PERHAPS SVR OR FLOOD-PRODUCING/ PULSE TSRA AGAIN THIS               
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD FRI. WITH JUST AS                 
MUCH MOISTURE AROUND...THE RESULTS SHOULD BE SIMILAR. WOULD AGAIN               
EXPECT WHAT FIRES UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO DRIFT INTO THE LOWER                 
SUSQ/PIEDMONT LATE IN THE EVENING. LI/S WILL ALREADY BE AT OR                   
BELOW ZERO AT 12Z...SO THINGS COULD GO ANYTIME...BUT SHOULD WAIT                
UNTIL NOON IN MOST PLACES. CAPES ARE PROGGED TO GET NEAR 1500J                  
VCTY OF KUNV AND KMDT THIS AFTN. PERSISTENCE IS THEREFORE THE                   
BEST FORECAST.                                                                  
TONIGHT LOOKS MUCH LIKE RIGHT NOW...IN BETWEEN THE DIURNAL                      
CONVECTION...AND STUCK IN THE SOUP. A LITTLE THE SUBSIDENCE                     
AROUND BARRY MAY START TO IMPACT THE REGION BY MID-DAY                          
SUNDAY...BUT OUR REGION WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION              
OF A JET STREAK MOVING NORTH/EASTWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE                   
CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL BE ADVANCING IN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                
THIS COUL MAKE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL MTNS. WITH ALL THE ACTIVITY WE                
HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...I HAVE KEPT LIKLIES FOR POPS IN                   
MOST PLACES FOR SUNDAY AFTN.                                                    
BARRY /WHILE HE SHOULD BE DEMOTED TO DEPRESSION OR LESS STATUS BY               
THEN/ IS SLATED BY TPC/HPC GUIDANCE TO BE MAKING RAINFALL OVER                  
THE DELMARVA AND NJ AS WELL AS EASTERN PA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE                  
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND BARRY COULD PUT A PINCH OF                   
SUBSIDENCE RIGHT ON THE REGION...AND KEEP A SLOT OF DRY WX RIGHT                
OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT THAT IS FAR TOO CUTE AT THIS POINT.                 
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIGGLE ROOM IN THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE                       
INTERACTIONS OF BARRY WITH THE UPPER LOW AND PAINT LIKELY POPS                  
/60-70 PCT/ OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM...RESULTING IN A MANUAL BLEND                
OF PREVIOUS FCAST WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA.                                   
WHILE PHASING ISSUES WILL BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IN                  
THE LONG- TERM...MREF DATA SHOWS ANOMALOUS 500 HPA HEIGHTS AND BLW              
NORMAL MSLP OVER THE REGION - WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY TRANSLATE INTO              
COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDS. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER/WETTER GUID                 
OVERALL FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK...WHICH AGREES WITH              
THE TREND NOTED IN THE MREF 1000-850MB TEMPERATURE PLUMES.                      
EMBEDDED S/W TROFS AND ASSOC COLD FRONTS WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH                 
THE REGION BRINGING ALMOST DAILY CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
THROUGH MID WEEK. MREF SHOWS HEIGHTS RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL BY                
LATE WEEK /THUR/ WITH TEMPS FOLLOWING SUITE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4SM WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH              
14Z. ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECOVER TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS              
TIME.                                                                           
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT AND SOME WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE OF HIGH                    
PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. DID NOT TRY TO                     
PINPOINT TSRA ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS AS THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW               
DAYS IS THAT ONLY ONE AIRFIELD ACTUALLY REPORTS TSRA. THE TRICK                 
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WHICH ONE...                                              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID                
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REPLACES OUR CURRENT RIDGE. THIS                  
WILL KEEP THE AREA UNSETTLED WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR                         
CONDITIONS. THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY ALSO AFFECT                   
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON SUNDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-                 
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-                        
056>059-063>066.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL                                                    
NEAR TERM...DANGELO                                                             
SHORT TERM...DANGELO                                                            
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL                                                   
AVIATION...TYBURSKI/CONNELLY                                                    
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TODAY. A PAIR OF              
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST LATE             
MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY. THE SECOND OF THESE FRONTS WILL STALL ON                 
WEDNESDAY...AND RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...LEAVING              
OUR AREA IN A WARM SURFACE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
OVERALL...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE WORKING OUT REASONABLY WELL. LARGE             
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NW OF THE             
REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO CONSTRICT...AND SHOULD TRANSLATE SLOWLY TO             
THE EAST AND NORTH AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES UP THE COAST OF THE                 
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A RELAXING                  
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UNDER CONTROL SO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY              
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...               
THE EASTERN ZONES COULD GET A THUNDERSTORM IN A ZONE OF BETTER LOW              
LEVEL CONVERGENCE PIVOTING AROUND THE AREA NEAR MONROE. THAT WILL               
BE INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...THE TREND TO LOWER THE POP FROM THE WEST               
LOOKS GOOD BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY. THE RUC AND 12Z NAM STILL                    
SUPPORT THE NOTION THAT WESTERN ZONES AND NE GEORGIA SHOULD BREAK               
OUT AND BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...              
WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND              
STORMS. IF THERE IS A MID COURSE CORRECTION THAT IS NEEDED...IT                 
WOULD BE THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST OVER THE EXTREME WEST...WHERE IT                
IS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S. WILL BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS OVER THE FAR                 
WEST ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO HANDLE THIS.                                          
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD ROUND THE GREAT LAKES                
UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE NC MTNS. DIMINISHING              
OVERNIGHT INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY RESULTING CONVECTION FROM                 
BECOMING WIDESPREAD...AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE               
POPS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN EASTERN TROUGH FOR MONDAY               
AND TUESDAY...WITH A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE             
LATE MONDAY...AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THOUGH IT ON TUESDAY.               
COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES...BUT THE             
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE WESTERLY...LIMITING                  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE LEE IN DEFERENCE TO THE               
MET AND FWC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE                
DIGIT MAV POPS. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH WILL              
EXISTS FOR DAYTIME AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE                
MOUNTAINS WHERE CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES               
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS            
OF BARRY...AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVERWHELMS HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. ON                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND                      
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS OFFSET DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS LEADS TO                    
MINIMUMS NEAR NORMAL...AND A MAXIMUM TUESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER               
THAN MONDAY...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS REPLACED BY A FLAT RIDGE BY THE               
END OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF THE HPC              
EXTENDED FORECAST SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY...AT LEAST THROUGH                    
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS              
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THE GFS HAS SOME ISSUED            
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... BUT DOWN OUR WAY IS             
STILL IN LINE WITH THE MANUAL PROGS...AND REMAINS SO ON SATURDAY...             
WITH OUR AREA IN A WARM SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE                 
BAHAMAS. LIMITED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON                  
HEATING...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO KCLT THIS MORNING...AS RAINBAND             
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FARTHER WEST. A VERY SLOW END TO THE             
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO NE AS THE BARRY REMNANTS PULL                
AWAY...AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TERMINATE AROUND NOON FOR               
PIEDMONT TAF SITES. STILL ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA TO              
SET UP IN REGION OF BEST LATE DAY HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED                  
CONVECTION KAND TO KGSP TO KAVL LATE. WESTERLY MIXING SHOULD KEEP               
VISIBILITY UP OVERNIGHT DESPITE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                  
AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EACH MORNING.                 
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEEP CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE                    
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR GAZ029.                        
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ071-072-082.                
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ009-011>014-019.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JAT                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HG/PM                                                               
SHORT TERM...JAT                                                                
LONG TERM...JAT                                                                 
AVIATION...HG                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
150 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE WEAKENING CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WILL MOVE ACROSS              
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING...AND REACH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA                
EARLY SUNDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE                
COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES              
NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE             
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE             
ACROSS THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE               
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL            
VALUES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
OUTER BANDS OF WEAKENING TD BARRY HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT FROM               
THE CENTER AS OVERALL SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A NON/TROPICAL LOW.               
THESE ROGUE BANDS HAVE INCREASED IN RADIAL SPEED AND ARE NOW                    
DEVELOPING INTO A DBM (DIFFLUENT BANDING OF MOMENTUM) TYPE OF PATTERN.          
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY               
AND BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL. THE LATEST RUC AND 18Z NAM12 QPF                  
TRENDS STILL KEEP THE WESTERN ZONES OUT OF THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD               
AND WILL LEAVE POPS ALONE IN THESE AREAS. SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN                
-SHRA/TS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE                  
CONTINUING...BUT WILL EXPECT A GENERAL BACKING OF WINDS THROUGH THE             
OVERNIGHT TO HALT MUCH OF A PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.            
EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN SPOTS AS WELL BASED ON               
COOLING PRECIP AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER ON TONIGHT FOR A                
POSSIBLE MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENT.                                                   
PROMISING GFS SOLUTION KEEPS CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACRS            
WESTERN NC SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE                
FLOW SPREADS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND            
COOLING ALOFT PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO THE WESTERN CWFA SUNDAY                    
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                   
LINGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WEAK            
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE TENN VALLEY.                 
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH SUPPORT FOR                
CONVECTION TO LINGER LONG PAST THE LATE EVENING HOURS.                          
AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST               
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION RETURN TO THE AREA. WITH THE            
ESTABLISHMENT OF RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BARRY/S              
REMNANTS...THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE A RESPECTABLE DEGREE OF WIND SHEAR            
ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVECTION             
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR WITHIN LEE TROUGH COULD               
ORGANIZE AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/                   
EVENING...AFFECTING A RATHER LARGE AREA. PREDICTING SUCH AN EVENT 48            
HOURS IN ADVANCE WOULD REQUIRE A BIT OF WISH-CASTING ON OUR                     
PART...SO FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY POPS IN THE 30-40 RANGE FOR MON                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF              
THE EXTENDED RANGE. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS ADVERTISES A SW TROUGH                 
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT             
SLIDING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS SOMEWHAT DISCOURAGING THAT             
THE GFS SEEMS NONE TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR AREA. THE            
GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A                  
STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY EVENING            
THROUGH TUESDAY...A FLOW WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO GOOD MOISTURE                
ADVECTION. WE WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE            
REGION TUE AND TUE EVENING. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MAJOR TROUGH                  
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS...FORCING A RETURN OF STRONG              
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THEREFORE...EXPECT ISOLATED            
TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION (AT BEST AND MAINLY OVER THE             
MTNS) AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY DAY 5.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE BARRY CIRCULATION WILL             
LIKELY AFFECT WESTERN UPSTATE TAFS...AS WELL AS KCLT...THROUGH THE              
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD STEADILY DESCEND TO MVFR              
CIGS...IF NOT THERE ALREADY...WITH SOME IFR LIKELY AT KCLT BY DAYBREAK.         
AS THE RAINBAND PIVOTS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY...CIGS WILL                    
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE            
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TSRA FROM KAND TO KGSP TO            
KAVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE               
CARRIED FOR NOW. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT             
LOW END SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT KAVL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS.                                                          
AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EACH MORNING.                 
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEEP CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE                    
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SBK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...SBK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JDL                                                                 
AVIATION...HG                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
806 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN               
FLORIDA THIS EVENING...AND REACH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY.           
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS               
OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD                   
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY                
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE                    
ACROSS THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE               
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE                   
NORMAL VALUES.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                                  
OUTER BANDS OF WEAKENING TD BARRY HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT FROM               
THE CENTER AS OVERALL SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A NON/TROPICAL LOW.               
THESE ROGUE BANDS HAVE INCREASED IN RADIAL SPEED AND ARE NOW                    
DEVELOPING INTO A DBM (DIFFLUENT BANDING OF MOMENTUM) TYPE OF PATTERN.          
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY               
AND BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL. THE LATEST RUC AND 18Z NAM12 QPF                  
TRENDS STILL KEEP THE WESTERN ZONES OUT OF THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD               
AND WILL LEAVE POPS ALONE IN THESE AREAS. SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN                
-SHRA/TS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE                  
CONTINUING...BUT WILL EXPECT A GENERAL BACKING OF WINDS THROUGH THE             
OVERNIGHT TO HALT MUCH OF A PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.            
EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN SPOTS AS WELL BASED ON               
COOLING PRECIP AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER ON TONIGHT FOR A                
POSSIBLE MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENT.                                                   
PROMISING GFS SOLUTION KEEPS CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACRS            
WESTERN NC SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE                
FLOW SPREADS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND            
COOLING ALOFT PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO THE WESTERN CWFA SUNDAY                    
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                              
LINGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WEAK            
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE TENN VALLEY.                 
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH SUPPORT FOR                
CONVECTION TO LINGER LONG PAST THE LATE EVENING HOURS.                          
AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST               
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION RETURN TO THE AREA. WITH THE            
ESTABLISHMENT OF RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BARRY/S              
REMNANTS...THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE A RESPECTABLE DEGREE OF WIND SHEAR            
ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVECTION             
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR WITHIN LEE TROUGH COULD               
ORGANIZE AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/                   
EVENING...AFFECTING A RATHER LARGE AREA. PREDICTING SUCH AN EVENT 48            
HOURS IN ADVANCE WOULD REQUIRE A BIT OF WISH-CASTING ON OUR                     
PART...SO FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY POPS IN THE 30-40 RANGE FOR MON                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF              
THE EXTENDED RANGE. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS ADVERTISES A SW TROUGH                 
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT             
SLIDING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS SOMEWHAT DISCOURAGING THAT             
THE GFS SEEMS NONE TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR AREA. THE            
GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A                  
STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY EVENING            
THROUGH TUESDAY...A FLOW WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO GOOD MOISTURE                
ADVECTION. WE WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE            
REGION TUE AND TUE EVENING. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MAJOR TROUGH                  
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS...FORCING A RETURN OF STRONG              
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THEREFORE...EXPECT ISOLATED            
TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION (AT BEST AND MAINLY OVER THE             
MTNS) AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY DAY 5.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR THIS                 
PACKAGE AS THE COMBINATION OF NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS AND THE 02/12              
UTC OP GFS SOLUTION YIELDING HIGHER PCPN CHANCES FOR THE TERMINALS.             
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL RAIN OF KCLT BY EARLY                
EVENING AND VCSH FOR THE UPSTATE TAFS AND KHKY BASED ON THIS                    
THINKING. LATEST MAV GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES FOR AT LEAST             
CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS NC WHERE BETTER LLVL               
UPGLIDE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KTS            
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT GRADUAL BACKING WINDS FROM EAST TO NNW              
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEEP                   
CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES EXIST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SBK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...SBK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JDL                                                                 
AVIATION...JDL                                                                  
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
734 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND REACH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY                  
SUNDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL              
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD             
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY                
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS             
THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA                 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL                 
VALUES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                                  
OUTER BANDS FROM REMANANTS OF TD BARRY HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT               
FROM THE CENTER AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A NON/TROPICAL LOW.              
THESE ROUGE BANDS HAVE INCREASED IN RADIAL SPEED AND ARE NOW                    
DEVELOPING INTO A DBM (DIFFLUENT BANDING OF MOMENTUM) TYPE OF                   
PATTERN. POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED                  
ACCORDINGLY AND BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL. THE LATEST RUC AND 18Z                
NAM12 QPF TRENDS STILL KEEP THE WESTERN ZONES OUT OF THE MAIN SHIELD            
AND WILL KEEP POPS ALONE IN THESE AREAS. SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN                 
-SHRA/TS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE                  
CONTINING...BUT WILL EXPECT A GENERAL BACKING OF WINDS THROUGH THE              
OVERNIGHT TO HALT ANY PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                  
EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN SPOTS AS WELL BASED ON               
COOLING PRECIP AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER ON TONIGHT FOR A                
POSSIBLE MIN TEMP UPGRADE.                                                      
PROMISING GFS SOLUTION KEEPS CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACRS            
WESTERN NC SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE                
FLOW SPREADS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND            
COOLING ALOFT PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO THE WESTERN CWFA SUNDAY                    
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                              
LINGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WEAK            
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE TENN VALLEY.                 
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH SUPPORT FOR                
CONVECTION TO LINGER LONG PAST THE LATE EVENING HOURS.                          
AS THE ATM DESTABILIZES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST               
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION RETURN TO THE AREA. WITH THE            
ESTABLISHMENT OF RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BARRY/S              
REMNANTS...THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE A RESPECTABLE DEGREE OF WIND SHEAR            
ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVECTION             
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR WITHIN LEE TROUGH COULD               
ORGANIZE AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/                   
EVENING...AFFECTING A RATHER LARGE AREA. PREDICTING SUCH AN EVENT 48            
HOURS IN ADVANCE WOULD REQUIRE A BIT OF WISH-CASTING ON OUR                     
PART...SO FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY POPS IN THE 30-40 RANGE FOR MON                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF              
THE EXTENDED RANGE. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS ADVERTISES A SW TROUGH                 
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT             
SLIDING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS SOMEWHAT DISCOURAGING THAT             
THE GFS SEEMS NONE TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR AREA. THE            
GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A                  
STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY EVENING            
THROUGH TUESDAY...A FLOW WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO GOOD MOISTURE                
ADVECTION. WE WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE            
REGION TUE AND TUE EVENING. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A MAJOR TROUGH                  
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS...FORCING A RETURN OF STRONG              
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THEREFORE...EXPECT ISOLATED            
TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION (AT BEST AND MAINLY OVER THE             
MTNS) AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY DAY 5.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR THIS                 
PACKAGE AS THE COMBINATION OF NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS AND THE 02/12              
UTC OP GFS SOLUTION YIELDING HIGHER PCPN CHANCES FOR THE TERMINALS.             
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL RAIN OF KCLT BY EARLY                
EVENING AND VCSH FOR THE UPSTATE TAFS AND KHKY BASED ON THIS                    
THINKING. LATEST MAV GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES FOR AT LEAST             
CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS NC WHERE BETTER LLVL               
UPGLIDE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KTS            
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT GRADUAL BACKING WINDS FROM EAST TO NNW              
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEEP                   
CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES EXIST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TJB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...SBK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JDL                                                                 
AVIATION...JDL                                                                  
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1017 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UNSTABLE WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE EVIDENT ACRS AREA THIS MORNING                
PER KMAF SOUNDING. MODIFIED 12Z KMAF SOUNDING AND FCST NAM40                    
SOUNDING INDICATE CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG BY EVENING. ATTP                   
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED S INTO THE TRANS PECOS WITH SFC DWPNTS              
GENERALLY IN THE U50S TO M60S. MSAS DATA INDICATES PRIMARY LOW                  
LEVEL MST AXIS IS ORIENTED NW-SE JUST BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED                     
BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR INDICATES WELL DEFINED AND RATHER LARGE                   
SHRTWV TROF SLOWLY MOVING E THRU W-SW NM WITH 60-70KT 3H JET MAX                
INTO FAR W TX. 7H-5H LR/S AROUND 8 C/KM...REFERENCED CAPES...0-6KM BULK         
SHEAR OF 45-50KT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE TSTMS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING                
WIND PRIMARY CONCERNS...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MSTR FOR LOWER LCL/S                 
AND PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY ALSO INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR FEW                   
TORNADOES. RUC/NAM INDICATE THAT TSTMS MAY INITIALLY FORM NEAR THE              
MTNS/ADJACENT PLAINS 20-22Z PER LIFT FROM SHRTWV TROF/UPSLOPE                   
FLOW/SFC HEATING WITH MCS EVENTUALLY EVOLVING AND ROLLING SE THRU               
PB. 06Z GFS HAS FARTHER E SOLN THAN NAM. SCT POPS ALREADY ACCOUNT               
FOR TSTMS N-NE THIS EVENING AND WILL OPT TO INCREASE POPS FAR                   
W-SW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
912 PM PDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST                
TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT WEATHER. BEHIND THE                   
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON                         
MONDAY...AND EVEN COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED                 
OVER THE PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...                
BUT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REGENERATE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF                 
WASHINGTON TO AS FAR EAST AS YAKIMA. RUC ANALYSIS OF 500MB WINDS                
AND HEIGHTS SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN               
NORTHERN OREGON INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER                 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE TO SUSTAIN                  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE 800MB-700MB LAYER.                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE VERY WEAK SINCE THE UPPER                  
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST MUCH OVERNIGHT. Q-VECTOR                    
CONVERGENCE REMAINS OFF SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO IT IS NOT                  
LIKELY THAT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN              
THEY ARE AS OF 9 PM. USING THAT REASONING...SLIGHT CHANCES OF                   
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO MOSES LAKE...WATERVILLE...OMAK               
AND POINTS WEST. /GKOCH                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE             
OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SHUNTED EAST            
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH BASED MOUNTAIN...MAINLY MOUNTAIN                     
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND             
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN              
03-05Z. FURTHER WEST...ALONG THE CASCADES THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO               
THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A BETTER              
CHANCE OF REMAINING INTACT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BUT CLOUD                 
BASES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET GIVEN THE HOT AND DRY                   
AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS. /GKOCH                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        62  82  54  68  46  65 /  10  20  60  50  20  20                 
COEUR D`ALENE  58  81  54  67  45  63 /  10  20  60  50  30  20                 
PULLMAN        57  81  52  66  45  61 /  10  20  60  50  20  30                 
LEWISTON       66  87  58  73  50  68 /  20  20  50  50  20  20                 
COLVILLE       58  84  54  69  42  66 /  10  20  60  50  40  40                 
SANDPOINT      56  82  52  69  44  60 /  10  30  50  50  40  40                 
KELLOGG        57  80  52  65  44  57 /  10  30  50  50  40  30                 
MOSES LAKE     66  87  55  73  48  70 /  10  20  60  40  20  20                 
WENATCHEE      69  82  54  71  52  68 /  20  20  60  50  10  20                 
OMAK           63  84  54  73  45  70 /  10  20  60  40  20  20                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
1106 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007                                                      
UPDATE...                                                                       
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED                   
OVER FAR SWRN WI AT 15Z WITH SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT /500MB TEMPS OF -15C         
AT KDVN AND -16C AT KMPX/ TRYING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. SFC TDS               
IN THE LOW-MID 60S STILL RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000                 
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RELATIVELY COOL 700MB TEMPS COMBINED              
WITH MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE STILL ONLY PRODUCING H7-H5 LAPSE                   
RATES OF 5.5-6.0C PER KM. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK NOT                 
EXPECTING MUCH OF A HAIL OR WIND THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH RUC MODEL DOES         
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT VALUES OF 0-3KM CAPE AND SFC                      
VORTICITY OVER THE ERN SECTIONS TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT              
POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. ENHANCED STRECTHING POTENTIAL              
(ESP) VALUES QUITE HIGH...SO AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO/COLD AIR FUNNEL IS        
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
OTHER CONCERN IS THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC                
SHOWING A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER FAR WRN SECTIONS OF CWA WITH                    
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING SWD INTO NRN IL. RAINFALL                      
EFFICIENCY WILL BE HIGH WITH THE STORMS DUE TO WARM RAIN                        
PROCESSES...THUS INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WRN AND NRN                     
SECTIONS OF CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT                 
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH                    
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE REMAINS OF A TROPICAL STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST HAVE                   
SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ALSO THE MOVEMENT OF              
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THE STACKED SYSTEM NOW SHOULD ROTATE OVER THE               
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD THE                
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING AT THIS TIME               
EVEN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST OF THE CWA. I EXPECT DAYTIME              
HEATING ON THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD                      
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER                 
SYSTEM DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. I WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV               
MOS POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                     
THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EAST OF WISCONSIN MONDAY.                              
HOWEVER...WISCONSIN REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH COOL                
UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE PREDICTED TO BE                 
TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE COLUMN IS                    
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SATURATED AND LAPS RATES WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP.               
I WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV POPS AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                    
INSTABILITY PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY. A LF QUAD OF A 100KT H300                 
JET IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS AROUND -20 AT H500. GFS PREDICTS SOME              
OMEGA AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE                   
-20 ALOFT AND 50 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT RULE. I WILL KEEP A                   
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.                           
AVIATION...IFR VSBYS NORTH OF MKE ALONG/EAST OF LK BNDRY WL                     
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. UPR LOW OVR SRN MN WL DRIFT OVR SRN WI THIS            
AFTERNOON. SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE               
NUMEROUS AS COLD POOL ALOFT SPREADS OVER RGN AT PEAK HEATING. WHILE             
MAINLY BKN VFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS              
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.                                                
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ052-060.                  
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
303 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...THEN             
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE              
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.                                                          
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST                  
MINNESOTA...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL                   
MINNESOTA AND THEN BACK SOUTH INTO EASTERN IOWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE              
IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS IN THE DRY SLOT FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO                    
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM             
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN AREA OF STRONGER                 
INSTABILITY. THE RUC ANALYZES A POCKET OF STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER             
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES            
FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH                    
NORTHWEST IOWA ASSISTING IN THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS IN VICINITY              
OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION.                                                       
12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH               
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA                
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO NEAR LA CROSSE BY 12Z SUNDAY AND INTO              
EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z MONDAY.                                                
IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD               
OF THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING            
AS INSTABILITY WANES. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL               
AND WIND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS               
EVENING. (SEE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE DETAILS). WILL HAVE             
HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS                      
INSTABILITY WANES.                                                              
WITH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND GIVEN WHATS              
HAPPENING TODAY UNDER THE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE THE                
HIGHER POPS. INSTABILITIES WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER LOW AND               
THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER...AS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF           
TO OUR EAST DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND               
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BEHIND LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS              
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN             
SYSTEM AND THUS WILL TAPER POPS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER END POPS            
FOR MONDAY.                                                                     
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH ITS                      
MAIN EFFECTS BEING FELT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE             
ACROSS THE FAR EAST MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT              
THE LOWER POPS IN FOR THOSE AREAS. LATER FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO                 
MONITOR TO POSSIBLY REMOVE THEM IF HIGH BUILDS FARTHER EAST.                    
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.             
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY GIVEN AMOUNT OF                  
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE AND COOL AND WET PERIOD                  
EXPECTED THROUGH MICH OF THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME.                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE                        
PERIOD. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL OCCURRING WITHIN THE FAST           
FLOW THAT WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS              
SHOW A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES             
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.                        
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON                 
THURSDAY WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND              
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION              
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS ENTIRE SYSTEM PUSHES            
EASTWARD. LOOKS AS THOUGH SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER FRIDAY AND             
INTO SATURDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYING UP TO THE SOUTH OF THE               
AREA. MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH FRONTAL POSITIONS AND TIMING WILL BE               
HARD TO ADD ANY SPECIFICITY TO FORECAST GRIDS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF                
SYSTEM AND MODEL PROGGED WIND PROFILES COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER            
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS IN LINE WITH SPC`S DAYS 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER            
OUTLOOK.                                                                        
RABERDING                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY                 
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THROUGH 02Z                 
SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY            
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...CEILINGS               
WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO THE 1500 TO 3000 FOOT RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY            
OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY                
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
BOYNE                                                                           
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
239 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH                   
MONDAY.                                                                         
MODEL QPF PATTERNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY...AND ARE IN                
LINE WITH MOS POPS. RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE ORGANIZED                
CONVECTION IN MISSOURI HEADING NORTHEAST...AND SHOULD ENTER                     
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 14Z. THIS IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH MODEL               
AND HPC QPF PATTERNS. WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND CURRENT RUC INDICATE A              
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DRIVING THE CONVECTION. LAPS RATES THIS                   
AFTERNOON BECOME STEEP INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE CAPES                     
INCREASE TO NEAR 1000. THE ENTIRE STATE IS IN DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK.              
WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS POPS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.                 
THE UPPER SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY WITH THE CORE OF THE              
COLDEST AIR ALOFT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE                   
FORECAST. LAPS RATES WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP. HPC AND GFS QPF PATTERN              
ARE SIMILAR...AND IN LINE WITH HIGH MAV POPS. WILL AGAIN STAY                   
CLOSE TO HIGH MAV POPS FOR SUNDAY.                                              
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND                    
MONDAY...THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT...-20...FILTERS INTO WISCONSIN. IN               
ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUING SERIES OF SHORT WAVES                   
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WB ZERO HEIGHT                
LOWERS TO AROUND 8K FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY                          
MONDAY...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXCEPT FOR MVFR AND SOME LCL IFR VSBYS AND CIGS ALONG LK            
MICHIGAN...BNDRY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MAINLY VFR                
CONDITIONS TO HOLD INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHRT WAVE TROF                 
BRINGS NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS AND               
VSBYS INTO SWRN WI AROUND/AFT 13Z. ERN WI SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE               
UNTIL 17-18Z.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
35/09                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY TODAY AND INCLUDE                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY                   
NIGHT. SMALL MCS FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY                     
NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY THEY INCLUDE TEMPERATURES WITH 100 DEGREES                 
POSSIBLE...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING                     
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND SLIM CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON TOP OF                 
ALL THIS WE WILL ALSO NEED TO DEAL WITH STRATUS AND/OR FOG FORMATION            
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.                          
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                          
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST 700-500 RH AND 250 DIVERGENCE FORECASTS                  
FROM THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ORGANIZED WEATHER FEATURE ALOFT AS                 
WELL AS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER LATE             
IN THE DAY. ANOTHER FEATURE MOVES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE WARRANTING               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. THESE                  
FEATURES CONTINUE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL               
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES QUITE A BIT WITH THE GFS/NAM/RUC                   
SHOWING STRATUS FORMATION. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE FRONT GETS WILL                
DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE AREA GETS THE LOW CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW                 
HAVE GONE WITH THE RUC/GFS WHICH CLIP THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR               
AREA AFTER 06Z. IF CONVECTION REALLY GETS GOING THE FRONT MAY BE                
INDEED FURTHER SOUTHWEST LIKE THE NAM INDICATES AND THE STRATUS                 
WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT FURTHER SOUTHWEST.                                      
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 850 AND 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH                     
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80-84 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE                 
AREA.                                                                           
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH                    
ANOTHER ORGANIZED UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED 850-500                      
MOISTURE POCKET MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON                    
HOURS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SO              
ANY POPS THEREAFTER WOULD BE MINIMAL. HIGHEST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                
(24%) WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TAPERING TO 15% ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA. THIS GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGH                 
MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS AND DEPENDING ON THE FRONTS               
POSITION DICTATES HOW FAR SOUTHWEST IT REACHES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT               
IT JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.                                                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY TROUBLESOME AS EASTERLY THEN                          
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS IS UNFAVORABLE                 
FOR STRONG WARMING. 850 TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS/NAM/NGM/UKMET                 
AND 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARENT ALL THAT FAR APART WITH READINGS              
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST                
AND WEST.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. LARGE UPPER                
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY LOW AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING                 
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. BREEZY TO WINDY                      
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN                 
1/2 OF THE AREA WITH SPEEDS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOISTURE                 
BELOW 700MB IS VERY DRY THANKS TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. MOISTURE IN               
THE 700-300 IS A BIT BETTER BUT WOULD FAVOR RATHER HIGH BASED                   
STORMS. GFS INSTABILITY IS WEAK...PROBABLY DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOKING AT 850 THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                    
FRONT/DRYLINE AS A GUIDE WOULD SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE THIS               
IDEA GOING SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. ANY PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO               
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z SO HAVE REMOVED               
POPS.                                                                           
850 TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE                
MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST TO NEAR 105 ACROSS THE HILL CITY AREA.                  
GIVEN THE DRY WEST WIND AT 850MB ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLY 2M/MOS                  
GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT LEAST 10F COOLER. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH NEAR               
90 ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO 100 AT HILL CITY AND 102 IN THE GOVE                  
COUNTY AREA...STAYING WITH COLLABORATIVE GUIDELINES. THESE MAY BE               
A BIT UNDERDONE...WE STILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY TO TWEAK THEM.                      
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...                                                 
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES FROM                   
WEDNESDAYS READINGS WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. NO               
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW NOT REAL FAVORABLE                
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT HAVE DROPPED PREVIOUS                 
FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.                                     
FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/DGEX IN FURTHER                   
DROPPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PER 850 TEMPERATURES. CONSENSUS                 
AMONGST THE 3 WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE                 
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH...AT LEAST 5F COOLER THEN CURRENTLY                    
ADVERTISED. WILL DROP THEM FURTHER WHILE STAYING WITHIN                         
COLLABORATIVE GUIDELINES. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTS WITH WHAT                 
ONCE WAS AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS                     
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO BY THE                
END OF THE DAY...FAVORING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST. AS A              
RESULT HAVE REMOVED THEM ACROSS THE EAST.                                       
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NO CHANGES MADE. 850 TEMPERATURES START TO WARM               
AGAIN DESPITE WEAK TROUGHING AT 500MB.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. UPPER                
DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE KMCK AREA AROUND 22Z-00Z AND THE               
KGLD AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z WITH TSRA POSSIBLE.                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/DDT/DDT                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1050 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONLY REAL CHANGES TO MORNING UPDATE INVOLVE TEMPS.  RAISED HIGHS                
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON 15Z OBS AND SUGGESTIONS FROM FORECAST                  
SOUNDINGS.  PCPN TRENDS SEEM RIGHT ON TRACK PER EXTRAPOLATION OF                
CURRENT WX...REACHING FAR NWRN FCST AREA BY 19Z. CONVECTION...                  
ELEVATED FOR THE TIME BEING...ACROSS SD/MN AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHRT             
WV WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES TO              
DROP SWD.  TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE SFC BASED WITH TIME AS MLCAPE               
INCREASES AND CIN ERODES PER 12Z RUC/NAM.  MAY SEE A FEW SVR TSTMS              
BUT LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THAT THREAT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS OLD LOW NEAR KMKG IN LOWER                 
MICHIGAN. WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE            
LOW WITH ONE IN SOUTHERN MO AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN IA. A              
THIRD IS LINING UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHERN MN TNT.                   
ALOFT...LOW OVER THE MIDWEST HAS PHASED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD                 
BERRY ALONG THE EAST COAST FORMING ONE LARGE ELONGATED TROUGH FROM              
H850 TO H700. H500 CONTINUES TO SHOW APPROACHING WAVE NEAR LAKE                 
WINNIPEG THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HT FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM OVER WI ARE QUITE               
MEAGER AND LOW ON THE EAST COAST SHOULD SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT...SO             
NOT EXPECTING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW TODAY. GFS SEEMS TO              
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXITING UPPER LOW WITH TONIGHT 00Z RUN.             
ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE            
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA NOW ENTERING EXTREME NORTHERN ND. WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHTNING FOOTPRINT ENTERING THE CONUS WITH DECENT MID            
LEVEL JET MAX OF 40KTS FORCING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. BOTH             
NAM AND GFS NOW BACKING OFF ON TIMING OF WIND MAX REACHING THE AREA             
WITH 40 TO 50 KTS AFTER 06Z TUES. NONE THE LESS...GFS STILL PAINTS A            
400-600 J/KG STRIPE WITH MAX VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER                  
CENTRAL NE BY 00Z TUES. NAM NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH INSTABILITY.               
WAVE COMBINED WITH WEAK COLD FRONTAL FORCING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD             
YIELD PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON                   
THROUGH EVENING. HIGH BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE SENS WX.                
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED AS H850 TEMPS               
FALL TO +8 TO +11C OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                                      
MAIN SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE WED WITH LEADING THETAE                     
ADVECTION LATE TUES. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE WARMING ALOFT                 
ARRIVES NEARLY CONCURRENTLY WITH LLVL MOISTURE RESULTING IN MODERATE            
TO HIGHLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. NET RESULT IS CONDITIONAL THUNDER                 
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE MOST LIKELY WITH SOME HINT AT DEVELOPMENT                
OVER SOUTHERN IA/N MO AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH WEDNESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CAP QUICKLY TAKES OVER FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS AS BULK                
SHEAR INCREASES NORTHWEST. GFS/GEM SHOW DEEP LOW WITH STRONG                    
DIFFLUENCE AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA               
DURING THE EVENING. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 60 TO 90 KTS FROM NW IA TO               
EASTERN NE/SD...FEEL GREATEST THREAT OF SVR WILL BE NORTHWEST                   
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA EARLY ON WED NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT                    
OUTBREAK THERE...THEN CONTINUED SEVERE EXPANDING THROUGH CENTRAL                
SECTIONS WHEN MORE LINEAR CONVECTION PROPAGATES EASTWARD TOWARD                 
MORNING WITH DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. RESULTANT SEVERE OF WIND AND               
HAIL FOR MOST OF REGION THOUGH MAY ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME TORNADO            
THREAT DURING THE NIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON CURRENT               
PROGS. WIND FIELDS VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM H850-H700 WITH 60KTS PROGGED            
OVER KDSM AT 06Z. DETAILS TO COME INTO FOCUS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS               
TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES BECOME MORE SOLIDIFIED. BEYOND MAIN                 
FROPA...SECONDARY FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THUR NIGHT                   
/FRIDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH TO SETTLE INTO AREA. FRONT EXPECTED             
TO RETURN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING BASED ON GEM. THUS MORE WET WEATHER             
AS MOISTURE POOL SOUTH ADVECTS NORTH INTO REGION SO UNSETTLED                   
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...04/06Z                                                              
ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE FROM KALO TO KOTM TIL 10Z. ALSO A CHANCE OF                
CIGS 015 AT THOSE SITES 08Z-13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH             
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AFT 18Z MON WHEN PROB30 FOR -TSRA             
ENTERS PICTURE NW TO SE THROUGH 03Z. COULD HAVE TEMPORARILY REDUCED             
VSBY AND LOWER CIGS. LEFT TS OUT OF KMCW TAF DUE TO MORE STABLE                 
AIRMASS UP THERE. NWLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BY 15Z MOST LOCATIONS WITH            
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25KT THROUGH MUCH OF DAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
945 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STILL IN                     
CANADA...AND LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVING OVERNIGHT.               
HAVE THUS PULLED POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN 3 TIERS OF KANSAS                        
COUNTIES...AS ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD NOT               
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z IN THESE LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER FORECAST                 
WAS ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY TODAY AND INCLUDE                       
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY                   
NIGHT. SMALL MCS FORMATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY                     
NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY THEY INCLUDE TEMPERATURES WITH 100 DEGREES                 
POSSIBLE...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING                     
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND SLIM CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON TOP OF                 
ALL THIS WE WILL ALSO NEED TO DEAL WITH STRATUS AND/OR FOG FORMATION            
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                           
TODAY/TONIGHT...LATEST 700-500 RH AND 250 DIVERGENCE FORECASTS                  
FROM THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ORGANIZED WEATHER FEATURE ALOFT AS                 
WELL AS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER LATE             
IN THE DAY. ANOTHER FEATURE MOVES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE WARRANTING               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. THESE                  
FEATURES CONTINUE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL               
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES QUITE A BIT WITH THE GFS/NAM/RUC                   
SHOWING STRATUS FORMATION. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE FRONT GETS WILL                
DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE AREA GETS THE LOW CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW                 
HAVE GONE WITH THE RUC/GFS WHICH CLIP THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR               
AREA AFTER 06Z. IF CONVECTION REALLY GETS GOING THE FRONT MAY BE                
INDEED FURTHER SOUTHWEST LIKE THE NAM INDICATES AND THE STRATUS                 
WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT FURTHER SOUTHWEST.                                      
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 850 AND 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH                     
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80-84 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE                 
AREA.                                                                           
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH                    
ANOTHER ORGANIZED UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED 850-500                      
MOISTURE POCKET MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON                    
HOURS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SO              
ANY POPS THEREAFTER WOULD BE MINIMAL. HIGHEST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                
(24%) WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TAPERING TO 15% ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA. THIS GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGH                 
MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS AND DEPENDING ON THE FRONTS               
POSITION DICTATES HOW FAR SOUTHWEST IT REACHES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT               
IT JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.                                                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY TROUBLESOME AS EASTERLY THEN                          
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS IS UNFAVORABLE                 
FOR STRONG WARMING. 850 TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS/NAM/NGM/UKMET                 
AND 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARENT ALL THAT FAR APART WITH READINGS              
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST                
AND WEST.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. LARGE UPPER                
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY LOW AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING                 
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. BREEZY TO WINDY                      
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN                 
1/2 OF THE AREA WITH SPEEDS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOISTURE                 
BELOW 700MB IS VERY DRY THANKS TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. MOISTURE IN               
THE 700-300 IS A BIT BETTER BUT WOULD FAVOR RATHER HIGH BASED                   
STORMS. GFS INSTABILITY IS WEAK...PROBABLY DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOKING AT 850 THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                    
FRONT/DRYLINE AS A GUIDE WOULD SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE THIS               
IDEA GOING SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. ANY PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO               
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z SO HAVE REMOVED               
POPS.                                                                           
850 TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE                
MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST TO NEAR 105 ACROSS THE HILL CITY AREA.                  
GIVEN THE DRY WEST WIND AT 850MB ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLY 2M/MOS                  
GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT LEAST 10F COOLER. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH NEAR               
90 ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO 100 AT HILL CITY AND 102 IN THE GOVE                  
COUNTY AREA...STAYING WITH COLLABORATIVE GUIDELINES. THESE MAY BE               
A BIT UNDERDONE...WE STILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY TO TWEAK THEM.                      
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...                                                  
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES FROM                   
WEDNESDAYS READINGS WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. NO               
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW NOT REAL FAVORABLE                
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT HAVE DROPPED PREVIOUS                 
FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.                                     
FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/DGEX IN FURTHER                   
DROPPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PER 850 TEMPERATURES. CONSENSUS                 
AMONGST THE 3 WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE                 
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH...AT LEAST 5F COOLER THEN CURRENTLY                    
ADVERTISED. WILL DROP THEM FURTHER WHILE STAYING WITHIN                         
COLLABORATIVE GUIDELINES. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTS WITH WHAT                 
ONCE WAS AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS                     
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO BY THE                
END OF THE DAY...FAVORING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST. AS A              
RESULT HAVE REMOVED THEM ACROSS THE EAST.                                       
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NO CHANGES MADE. 850 TEMPERATURES START TO WARM               
AGAIN DESPITE WEAK TROUGHING AT 500MB.                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. UPPER                
DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE KMCK AREA AROUND 22Z-00Z AND THE               
KGLD AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z WITH TSRA POSSIBLE.                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SFJ/DDT                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1150 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW              
WAS SLOWLY MOVING E THROUGH SRN LAKE MI. STRONG 700-500 MB FGEN ON              
ITS NW FLANK SUPPORTED THE PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN ACRS SE UPPER MI.            
THE 12Z NAM AND RUC SUGGEST THAT THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS SHOULD                 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. SO...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL            
OF AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE THIRD OF UPPER             
MI                                                                              
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PCPN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. SOME            
LOCATIONS IN FAR RURAL PORTIONS OF SW DELTA COUNTY AND EASTERN                  
MENOMINEE COUNTY HAD RECEIVED FROM 2.5 TO 4.0 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE              
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCT -SHRA INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND            
W UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHRTWV NW OF CYQT MOVES TOWARD THE               
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 442 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2007                             
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 18Z TODAY FOR THE EASTERN             
THIRD OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP ONLY SHOWERS AFTERWORDS.  LOOKING             
BACK AT WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...ON THE               
BACK SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW...THIS SEEMS REALISTIC.  WITH PIECES OF              
ENERGY CONTINUING TO ROLL THROUGH AROUND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH                 
TONIGHT...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A COUPLE OF                    
LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A GOOD               
ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ONGOING FORECAST BEYOND THIS                    
MORNING.  IN FACT...WITH THE JUST RECENTLY UPDATED DAY1 CONVECTIVE              
OUTLOOK...ONLY THE EASTERN MOST FRINGE IS INCLUDED IN THE GENERAL               
RISK AREA.                                                                      
AM GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH OUR DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT THE            
GFS HAS BEEN DOING A RELATIVELY GOOD JOB AND WAS INITIALIZED                    
WELL...AND DO NOT REALLY WANT TO CUT OUT ITS LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR             
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  UPSTREAM...THE SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING US LIGHT            
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY CREATING TEMPERATURES OF 32 DEGREES OF               
-SHSN AT CYYQ IN NORTHERN MANITOBA.  THIS DOES VALIDATE THE GFS A               
LITTLE MORE THAN THE NAM FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.  STILL...ANY                
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IF IT DOES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO             
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP THE MENTION OF ANY PROLONGED SHOWER                 
ACTIVITY OUT AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.  THE 06Z NAM ACTUALLY LOOKS VERY                
SIMILAR TO OUR FORECAST THAT WE JUST ISSUED...SUPPORTING THE LACK OF            
CHANGE.                                                                         
WILL A FROST ADVISORY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY                
GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS?  WELL...IF THE NAM IS              
CORRECT IT VERY WELL MAY BE.  HOWEVER...THE GFS WOULD KEEP MORE                 
CLOUDS OVER THE PRIME LOCATIONS INHIBITING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST             
DEVELOPMENT.  HAVE INCREASED THE AREA FOR FOG...FOR ALL AREAS WHERE             
MIN TEMPS WILL BE AT OR LOWER THAN 36F.  BUT ONCE AGAIN...IT WILL               
NEED TO BE REANALYZED BY LATER SHIFTS WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE               
WIND AND SKY COVER BY LATER MODEL RUNS.                                         
CUT BACK TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BY A            
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF EVEN WITH A              
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE. AS FOR WEATHER DURING THIS                
TIME PERIOD...HAVE MADE FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...4 AM ISSUANCE                                                         
PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND THEN                
DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER NORTH WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR               
FROM ONTARIO. THE GRADIENT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING FROM LOWER             
MI WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE N WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25            
KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. COLDER            
AIR AND EFFECTIVE MIXING OF WINDS TO THE SFC SHOULD RESULT IN 4 TO 7            
FT WAVES BY LATE MON. A RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL SLACKEN GRADIENT                 
WINDS AND BRING WAVES BACK DOWN ON TUE. A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER            
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK WILL MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER                      
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THU. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE                     
APPROACHING LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT WHILE WAVES                
BUILD TO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE. SW WINDS VEERING W WILL APPROACH GALE            
STRENGTH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE LOW AND FRONT DEPART TO THE                  
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AFFECT              
MAINLY KSAW THROUGH 18Z. VLIFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A               
PROBLEM AT KSAW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPSLOPE/ONSHORE NRLY             
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT SAME TIME...INCREASING MIXING WITH                   
STRONGER NRLY FLOW AND SCT SHRA MAY WORK TO OCCASIONALLY IMPROVE                
VSBYS ABV IFR AT KSAW THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR             
TO ERODE STRATUS DECK AT KSAW BY 21Z AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL                  
THEREAFTER.                                                                     
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR UPSTREAM OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND                    
DOWNSLOPING NRLY WIND SHOULD WORK TO KEEP VSBYS VFR AT KCMX. MVFR               
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW UNTIL LATE MORNING            
AT WHICH TIME DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD SCATTER OUT LOWER DECK.                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...KF                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...JV                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1025 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
GOING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR PRECIP TIMING THIS MORNING.             
HIGH BASED SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTH BETWEEN WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT              
OVER CENTRAL CWA AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE RED RIVER             
VALLEY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGH BASED SHOWERS INITIALLY...BUT MAY             
SEE SOME STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS               
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATS OUT. 12Z NAM/RUC SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY            
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA...AND COULD SEE SOME PULSE TSRA             
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST. EARLIER HWO WORDING             
FOR THIS LOOKS OK...THOUGH MAY TRY TO DEFINE THE AREA OF THE BETTER             
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS A BIT BETTER.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NOT TOO MANY AVIATION PRBLMS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED TSRA                
EMBEDDED IN GREATER COVERAGE OF HIGH BASED SHRA SPREADING SOUTH OVER            
THE AREA THIS MORNING. TSRA MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. SHOULD SEE GENERALLY                
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THRU PD...THOUGH LOCALLY MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER TSRA              
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z AROUND KFSD/KSUX.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
RATHER DYNAMIC AND BUSY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UFN. SCT SHRA/TSRA                
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH CDFNT AND ASSCD SHORT WAVE INTO ND ATTM...               
WHICH WILL MOVE SSEWD OVR CWA THIS AFTN. PREV FCST RATHER WELL                  
TIMED...BUT BEEFED UP POPS JUST SHORT OF LIKELY ESP EARLY AFTN IN               
SD PTN OF CWA. AGAIN GOOD LAPSE RATES IN LOW TO MID LVLS WITH SOME              
HAIL EXPCD...BUT THINK IT WILL BE SHORT OF ANY SVR DUE TO LACK OF               
DEEP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES               
SWD INTO CWA TNGT AND PREV FCST MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING LOWS LOOK               
GOOD WITH GENLY CLRG SKIES EXPCD. RDG MOVES EWD OVR CWA TUE FLWD BY             
INCRG SSELY FLOW OF MILDER AND GRADUALLY MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR            
FM TUE NGT THRU WED. WILL KEEP SMALL CHCS MID LVL WARM ADVECTION                
TSTMS MOVG ENE OVR CWA TUE NGT AND WED MRNG. BIG MOISTURE RETURN                
WILL BE WED WITH STG SLY JET IN PLAINS BRINGING BACK GULF MOISTURE.             
SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DVLP LATE TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG WITH THIS                 
MOISTURE RETURN...PUTTING TEMPORARY DAMPER ON TEMP RISE ON WED...               
BUT NEWD MOVG WMFNT INTO CWA FLWD BY GOOD MIXING SHOULD DESTABILIZE             
ATMOS WED AFTN. THIS WILL LIKELY PRIME US FOR A GOOD SVR WX OUTBREAK            
PROBABLY IN FORM OF SUPERCELLS ALG AND NORTH OF WMFNT BY WED EVE                
FLWD BY A SQUALL LINE DVLPG WITH CDFNT MOVG ESEWD OVR CWA WED NGT.              
VERY STRONG QUASI NEG TILT UPR WAVE OUT OF RCKYS WILL INTERACT WITH             
LOW LVL JET WITH GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPCD...SO SPC MOD RISK             
LOOKS GOOD. LWRD POPS BEHIND FNT LATE WED NGT THRU THU NGT IN A GOOD            
PART OF CWA AS DRIER WLY FLOW EXPCD ALG WITH MINIMAL DYNAMICS.                  
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH                                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
112 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONLY REAL CHANGES TO MORNING UPDATE INVOLVE TEMPS.  RAISED HIGHS                
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON 15Z OBS AND SUGGESTIONS FROM FORECAST                  
SOUNDINGS.  PCPN TRENDS SEEM RIGHT ON TRACK PER EXTRAPOLATION OF                
CURRENT WX...REACHING FAR NWRN FCST AREA BY 19Z. CONVECTION...                  
ELEVATED FOR THE TIME BEING...ACROSS SD/MN AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHRT             
WV WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES TO              
DROP SWD.  TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE SFC BASED WITH TIME AS MLCAPE               
INCREASES AND CIN ERODES PER 12Z RUC/NAM.  MAY SEE A FEW SVR TSTMS              
BUT LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THAT THREAT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS OLD LOW NEAR KMKG IN LOWER                 
MICHIGAN. WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE            
LOW WITH ONE IN SOUTHERN MO AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN IA. A              
THIRD IS LINING UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHERN MN TNT.                   
ALOFT...LOW OVER THE MIDWEST HAS PHASED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD                 
BERRY ALONG THE EAST COAST FORMING ONE LARGE ELONGATED TROUGH FROM              
H850 TO H700. H500 CONTINUES TO SHOW APPROACHING WAVE NEAR LAKE                 
WINNIPEG THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HT FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM OVER WI ARE QUITE               
MEAGER AND LOW ON THE EAST COAST SHOULD SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT...SO             
NOT EXPECTING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW TODAY. GFS SEEMS TO              
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXITING UPPER LOW WITH TONIGHT 00Z RUN.             
ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE            
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA NOW ENTERING EXTREME NORTHERN ND. WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHTNING FOOTPRINT ENTERING THE CONUS WITH DECENT MID            
LEVEL JET MAX OF 40KTS FORCING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. BOTH             
NAM AND GFS NOW BACKING OFF ON TIMING OF WIND MAX REACHING THE AREA             
WITH 40 TO 50 KTS AFTER 06Z TUES. NONE THE LESS...GFS STILL PAINTS A            
400-600 J/KG STRIPE WITH MAX VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER                  
CENTRAL NE BY 00Z TUES. NAM NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH INSTABILITY.               
WAVE COMBINED WITH WEAK COLD FRONTAL FORCING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD             
YIELD PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON                   
THROUGH EVENING. HIGH BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE SENS WX.                
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED AS H850 TEMPS               
FALL TO +8 TO +11C OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                                      
MAIN SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE WED WITH LEADING THETAE                     
ADVECTION LATE TUES. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE WARMING ALOFT                 
ARRIVES NEARLY CONCURRENTLY WITH LLVL MOISTURE RESULTING IN MODERATE            
TO HIGHLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. NET RESULT IS CONDITIONAL THUNDER                 
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE MOST LIKELY WITH SOME HINT AT DEVELOPMENT                
OVER SOUTHERN IA/N MO AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH WEDNESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CAP QUICKLY TAKES OVER FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS AS BULK                
SHEAR INCREASES NORTHWEST. GFS/GEM SHOW DEEP LOW WITH STRONG                    
DIFFLUENCE AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA               
DURING THE EVENING. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 60 TO 90 KTS FROM NW IA TO               
EASTERN NE/SD...FEEL GREATEST THREAT OF SVR WILL BE NORTHWEST                   
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA EARLY ON WED NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT                    
OUTBREAK THERE...THEN CONTINUED SEVERE EXPANDING THROUGH CENTRAL                
SECTIONS WHEN MORE LINEAR CONVECTION PROPAGATES EASTWARD TOWARD                 
MORNING WITH DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. RESULTANT SEVERE OF WIND AND               
HAIL FOR MOST OF REGION THOUGH MAY ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME TORNADO            
THREAT DURING THE NIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON CURRENT               
PROGS. WIND FIELDS VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM H850-H700 WITH 60KTS PROGGED            
OVER KDSM AT 06Z. DETAILS TO COME INTO FOCUS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS               
TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES BECOME MORE SOLIDIFIED. BEYOND MAIN                 
FROPA...SECONDARY FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THUR NIGHT                   
/FRIDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH TO SETTLE INTO AREA. FRONT EXPECTED             
TO RETURN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING BASED ON GEM. THUS MORE WET WEATHER             
AS MOISTURE POOL SOUTH ADVECTS NORTH INTO REGION SO UNSETTLED                   
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...04/18Z                                                              
NOW HAVING SOME QUESTION ABOUT AREAL EXTENT OF APPROACHING                      
SHWRS/TSTMS AND EVEN AMOUNT OF THUNDER.  CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION WOULD            
SUGGEST THAT WRN TAFS...FOD/DSM...HAVE BETTER PROBABILITIES AND ARE             
ALSO CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY SO CARRIED TEMPOS THERE AND VCNTY             
ELSEWHERE.  ANY CIGS THAT DO LOWER IN PCPN SHOULD REMAIN VFR.                   
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
422 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                             
.SYNOPSIS...WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROF OVER             
THE ERN CONUS A RDG FROM THE SW TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND A TROF OVER              
THE ERN PAC. A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD REACHED SW LOWER             
MI.THE AREA OF DEFORMATION AND STRONG 700-500 MB FGEN NW OF THE LOW             
THAT SUPPORTED BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS SE UPPER MI AND NRN LK              
MI WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. SCT SHRA HAD               
ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR CYQT INTO NE MN AHEAD OF A TRAILING                    
SHORTWAVE. -SHRA WERE HAVING A HARD TIME SURVIVING ACROSS THE STABLE            
AIR OVER N AND W LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE VIS LOOP SHOWED AREA OF CLEAR              
SKIES.                                                                          
TONIGHT...RADAR TRENDS AND 12Z NAM/RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE                        
LINGERING AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SE WILL MOVE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON            
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SCT -SHRA BTWN 00Z-03Z ALONG AND E             
OF GRAND MARAIS-KISQ. ALSO...ONLY ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES SHOULD                  
SURVIVE INTO FAR W UPPER MI THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL                   
CLEARING...PER 925-700 MB RH PROGS...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO              
NEAR 40 WITH UPPER 30S INLAND.                                                  
TUE...EVEN THOUGH MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE VERY MARGINAL...100-300 J/KG            
AT BEST...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS TILL NEAR E UPPER MI BY                  
AFTERNOON AND A -23C 500 MB COLD POOL OVER THE AREA...CANNOT RULE               
OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SOUTH. SO...SLGT CHANCE POPS WERE                  
RETAINED. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS IN THE -1C TO 3C RANGE SUPPORT               
DEVELOPMENT OF SC INLAND FROM NRLY FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR AND TEMPS               
RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW 60S S AND W.                     
EXTENDED...                                                                     
THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER               
LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT FROM JUST            
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC. ANOTHER LOW OFF THE                
COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN OREGON. A                 
RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN BRITISH                  
COLUMBIA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST                       
AREA...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH            
CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS WILL BE                
FAIRLY DRY WITH A STRONG INVERSION AT 750MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE              
PRODUCTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.                                                
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AS THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS RIDGE RELOCATES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW            
OVER OREGON WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. A NUMBER OF WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW              
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A WARM FRONT LEADING THIS LOW            
SWEEPS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT            
WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS. A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 750MB WILL CAP             
THE AIR MASS AND PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE.                     
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE            
THE COLD FRONT EDGES INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CAP            
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE MORNING BUT BREAKDOWN DURING THE DAY.               
THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION. THUS                
PLAN TO ONLY HAVE SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...AND SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                 
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE                   
NORTH...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO ON                     
THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW               
WILL SWEEP THROUGH MINNESOTA AND EXTREME WESTERN U.P. ISENTROPIC                
ASCENT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE A CHANCE            
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                   
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE FRONT FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO CENTRAL QUEBEC                 
WHILE THE LOW NEAR KINL WILL MOVE TO NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY             
NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ONTARIO LOW             
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE U.P. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK DRY SLOT                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW  WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY                 
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN OVER THE                    
FORECAST AREA. MUCAPE VALUES WILL DROP OFF TO ZERO AND STABILITY                
INDEXES SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS.                      
DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON              
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO             
CALL FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH PORTIONS.                              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC WHILE A ZONAL             
FLOW SETS UP OVER NORTHERN CONUS AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH               
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING DRY AIR WILL BLANKET THE FORECAST AREA AS            
WELL THROUGH THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS SHOWING AN INCREASE MOISTURE            
FIELD AS WELL, SO WILL ADD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GRIDS.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE 12Z NAM AND RUC13 WERE PREFERRED WITH THE SLOWER DIMINISHING                
TREND OF NRLY FLOW ACROSS THE E 2/3 OF THE LAKE. SO...15 TO 25 KT               
WINDS AND WAVES IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE              
DROPPING OFF TUE MORNING. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE PLAINS            
LOW INTO WRN ONTARIO...PER 12Z GFS RESULTS IN DELAY IN STRONGER SE              
FLOW WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING SW AND W THU NIGHT INTO              
FRI. WAVES INTO THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY            
THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH GREATER MIXING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
DRY ADVECTION WITH NRLY FLOW WILL HELP ERODE/LIFT THE MVFR SC DECK              
AT KSAW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO              
TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILD INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO                
CONTINUE AT KCMX WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE TODAY. SCT/BKN SC                     
DEVELOPING EARLY TUE EITHER WITH A WEAK SHRTWV OR DIURNAL HEATING               
UNDER MID LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD REMAIN ABV 3K FT AS SFC DEWPOINTS              
DROP INTO THE 30S.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
EXTENDED...DLG                                                                  
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...JLB                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
DRY ADVECTION WITH NRLY FLOW WILL HELP ERODE/LIFT THE MVFR SC DECK              
AT KSAW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO              
TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILD INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO                
CONTINUE AT KCMX WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE TODAY. SCT/BKN SC                     
DEVELOPING EARLY TUE EITHER WITH A WEAK SHRTWV OR DIURNAL HEATING               
UNDER MID LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD REMAIN ABV 3K FT AS SFC DEWPOINTS              
DROP INTO THE 30S.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1150 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2007                                     
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW              
WAS SLOWLY MOVING E THROUGH SRN LAKE MI. STRONG 700-500 MB FGEN ON              
ITS NW FLANK SUPPORTED THE PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN ACRS SE UPPER MI.            
THE 12Z NAM AND RUC SUGGEST THAT THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS SHOULD                 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. SO...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL            
OF AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE THIRD OF UPPER             
MI                                                                              
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PCPN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. SOME            
LOCATIONS IN FAR RURAL PORTIONS OF SW DELTA COUNTY AND EASTERN                  
MENOMINEE COUNTY HAD RECEIVED FROM 2.5 TO 4.0 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE              
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCT -SHRA INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND            
W UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHRTWV NW OF CYQT MOVES TOWARD THE               
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 442 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2007                             
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 18Z TODAY FOR THE EASTERN             
THIRD OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP ONLY SHOWERS AFTERWORDS.  LOOKING             
BACK AT WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...ON THE               
BACK SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW...THIS SEEMS REALISTIC.  WITH PIECES OF              
ENERGY CONTINUING TO ROLL THROUGH AROUND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH                 
TONIGHT...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A COUPLE OF                    
LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A GOOD               
ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ONGOING FORECAST BEYOND THIS                    
MORNING.  IN FACT...WITH THE JUST RECENTLY UPDATED DAY1 CONVECTIVE              
OUTLOOK...ONLY THE EASTERN MOST FRINGE IS INCLUDED IN THE GENERAL               
RISK AREA.                                                                      
AM GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH OUR DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT THE            
GFS HAS BEEN DOING A RELATIVELY GOOD JOB AND WAS INITIALIZED                    
WELL...AND DO NOT REALLY WANT TO CUT OUT ITS LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR             
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  UPSTREAM...THE SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING US LIGHT            
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY CREATING TEMPERATURES OF 32 DEGREES OF               
-SHSN AT CYYQ IN NORTHERN MANITOBA.  THIS DOES VALIDATE THE GFS A               
LITTLE MORE THAN THE NAM FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.  STILL...ANY                
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IF IT DOES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO             
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP THE MENTION OF ANY PROLONGED SHOWER                 
ACTIVITY OUT AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.  THE 06Z NAM ACTUALLY LOOKS VERY                
SIMILAR TO OUR FORECAST THAT WE JUST ISSUED...SUPPORTING THE LACK OF            
CHANGE.                                                                         
WILL A FROST ADVISORY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY                
GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS?  WELL...IF THE NAM IS              
CORRECT IT VERY WELL MAY BE.  HOWEVER...THE GFS WOULD KEEP MORE                 
CLOUDS OVER THE PRIME LOCATIONS INHIBITING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST             
DEVELOPMENT.  HAVE INCREASED THE AREA FOR FOG...FOR ALL AREAS WHERE             
MIN TEMPS WILL BE AT OR LOWER THAN 36F.  BUT ONCE AGAIN...IT WILL               
NEED TO BE REANALYZED BY LATER SHIFTS WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE               
WIND AND SKY COVER BY LATER MODEL RUNS.                                         
CUT BACK TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BY A            
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF EVEN WITH A              
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE. AS FOR WEATHER DURING THIS                
TIME PERIOD...HAVE MADE FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...4 AM ISSUANCE                                                         
PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND THEN                
DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER NORTH WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR               
FROM ONTARIO. THE GRADIENT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING FROM LOWER             
MI WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE N WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25            
KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. COLDER            
AIR AND EFFECTIVE MIXING OF WINDS TO THE SFC SHOULD RESULT IN 4 TO 7            
FT WAVES BY LATE MON. A RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL SLACKEN GRADIENT                 
WINDS AND BRING WAVES BACK DOWN ON TUE. A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER            
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK WILL MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER                      
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THU. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE                     
APPROACHING LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT WHILE WAVES                
BUILD TO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE. SW WINDS VEERING W WILL APPROACH GALE            
STRENGTH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE LOW AND FRONT DEPART TO THE                  
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...KF                                                            
MARINE...JV                                                                     
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