FXUS04 KWBC 022304 PAA
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
603 PM EST SUN FEB 02 2003
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
...18Z UPDATE..THE ETA AND GFS WERE IN VRY GOOD AGRMT WITH THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS ACRS THE LOWER 48..SO LITTLE CHG WAS MADE TO THE
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF...
DAY 1....
...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE PLNS AND GTLKS...
MDLS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT THRU THIS
REGION AFTR SVRL DAYS OF STG DISAGREEMENT. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLNS DISCUSSED YDA SEEMS TO BE STILL THE FAVORED SOLN. THE GFS
IS STILL TRYING TO HANG ONTO A MORE SRN STREAM SFC LOW...BUT
CATCHES UP TO THE OTHER MDLS BY 36 HRS. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH
THIS SYS IS GOING TO BE THE LACK OF MSTR FEEDING NWD FM THE GULF.
SFC RDGG ACRS THE GULF WL GIVE UP SLOWLY AND KEEP THINGS
RATHER DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS PD. SO...MUCH OF THE PCPN WL OCCUR N
OF THE SFC BNDRY AND INVOF THE 8H/7H BNDRYS. NR THE END OF THE PD
WE COULD SEE A THIN BAND OF HIER MSTR FEEDING NWD AHD OF THE
SYS INTO THE GTLKS. THE STG MLVL VORT OVR THE GT BASIN WL SWING
THRU THE CNTRL ROCKIES THIS EVE/ERLY TNGT WITH HVY SNOWS IN THE
HIER TERRAIN. A BAND OF LGT/MOD PCPN WL XTND ENEWD FM THE CNTRL
ROCKIES ACRS THE PLNS INTO THE GTLKS. THE GTLKS REGION WL SEE
MOD LLVL THERMAL FORCING DVLP ON MON THAT SHLD COINCIDE WITH
INCREASING LLVL MSTR...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE HVIER ETA IN THIS
AREA. PLENTY OF WARM AIR WL STREAM NWD AND KEEP A LOT OF THE
PCPN MIXED THRU THE PLNS INTO THE GTLKS. SNOWS WL LIKELY FALL
ALG THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD.
...LWR MS VLY...
SUB-TRPCL ENERGY LIFTING NEWD INTO MEX THIS AFTN WL BRING SOME
WEAK LIFT ACRS THE REGION LATE TNGT/MON. MSTR IS NOT DEEP...SO
ONLY SCTS SHWRS ARE XPCD.
...NEW ENG...
THE POWERFUL NOREASTER LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
AFTN WL CONT TO WRAP DEEP MSTR ARND THE SYS AND INTO ME THRU
ERLY TNGT. MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY STG AGREEMENT...BUT THE ETA SEEMS
OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THIS
AREA..WHICH SHUD HELP LWR PCPN AMTS. MOST OF THE PCPN WL BE
SNOW. SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS.
DAY 2...
IN THE EAST... THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY
WERE YESTERDAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS IS SLOWER
THAN THE ETA WITH THE SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SWINGING NEWD INTO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE OTHER MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THE FASTER
ETA... SO HAVE BASICALLY GONE ALONG WITH THE ETA PCPN PATTERN.
WIDESPREAD MDT TO LOCALLY HVY AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IN THE APPALACHIANS... IN THE WARM
ADVECTION AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN NEW ENGLAND... AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.  BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW... LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP IN U.P. MI... AND IN
PORTIONS OF NR AND WRN L.P. MI.
UPDATE...  THE 18Z ETA SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM 12Z... BUT THE 18Z
GFS IS TRENDING FASTER THAN EARLIER.  THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE
SOLUTION ABOVE... FAVORING THE FASTER ETA. SO ONLY VER MINOR
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE EAST IN THE DAY2 QPF.
IN THE WEST... THE MODELS ARE A LOT CLOSER THAN YDA WITH THE
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. THE
ETA IS STILL SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE GFS WITH THE VORT MAX.  HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO THE ETA PCPN... WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHT AMOUNTS IN
MUCH OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
UPDATE...  THE LATEST 18Z ETA AND GFS ARE BOTH TRENDING SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA.
THEREFORE... LIKE THE MODELS... HAVE EDGED THE LIGHT PCPN
WESTWARD IN THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
DAY3...
IN NRN NEW ENGLAND... MODELS AGREE THAT ONLY LIGHT PCPN LINGERS
IN NRN PORTIONS AS SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD INTO CANADA.
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION... VERY COLD NWRLY TO WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PCPN AMOUNTS.  BEST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE LEE OF LAKES ONTARIO AND SUPERIOR.
IN THE WEST... A WEAK IMPULSE AND THE FRONT LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET MAX WILL HELP TO BRING MORE LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
ROCKIES AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  MEANWHILE... THE DOWNSTREAM
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS TO PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.  THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS STRONGER IN THE ETA THAN IN THE GFS... AND HAS THE
SUPPORT OF THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN IN THAT RESPECT.
ECKERT/WOLF/LINDNER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov
24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 515664 510652 505644 502639 500635 491630 481627 467626
461625
      454625 442625 436626 427629 419640 415648 414657 414663
414671
      414681 415689 416693 419697 424700 428701 433703 436707
437714
      436732 435739 433743 431746 424753 422757 422763 422766
421772
      416778 413786 410796 407800 400806 395813 391819 389826
385833
      379836 372837 363840 357845 346857 331875 327881 324888
320899
      307923 302937 299944 296949 292955 289959 283964 275969
270972
      266977 262983 262989 265993 270991 282982 284981 288979
291980
      296980 302978 308974 313971 318966 323962 326958 330948
334937
      342925 347919 354915 362912 368911 382913 387911 390908
395903
      407891 415886 418888 417893 414901 411906 394931 387944
378961
      374973 370988 368994 367005 366020 364038 362044 358048
356052
      356057 357063 355068 354071 354076 358076 361073 363072
365074
      367076 370083 373093 375097 376099 379100 385097 388097
389100
      392105 389106 384105 379106 378110 377115 372119 367118
362120
      365125 370129 373131 377131 384128 394124 399125 405127
408121
      413122 420120 428123 435117 440117 446122 451122 454125
453129
      449134 447137 446142 440145 438148 439151 443158 445163
446167
      448173 448178 447180 443181 441186 444191 447190 451192
452193
      455190 459186 462182 463178 455173 454170 455166 457163
462164
      463165 465170 466173 468174 473173 478172 483177 493185
494189
      494194 493198 491198 486198 483200 477203 464212 458216
457219
      458222 462224 466222 471221 478221 483223 487228 485231
483233
      479231 474231 472236 473241 476245 486257 495272 500279
502282
      506284 508282 508278 506268 506263 509264 515267 517263
518256
      517250 516244 511231 504215 503211 505207 507205 512205
515206
      520210 523211 525209 527206 529204 529200 526191 523183
519176
      515171 510165 502160 499159 503157 505155 508152 507149
505145
      499140 485126 480124 476122 474119 477110 478107 477103
476099
      474093 471090 467089 462097 459098 456096 453092 449092
443093
      438092 435096 427091 430104 423105 420106 417110 412111
411107
      410100 408092 406087 410082 417077 422074 426069 428062
429056
      433054 441052 444051 446046 446039 444032 443021 452986
457969
      459961 459956 460952 462948 467946 472946 473950 473955
475957
      481959 486960 491960 496959 500957 506952 511946 516940
519934
      516926 519920 522914 520905 514902 510901 506903 497908
491914
      487919 482924 475923 471917 472913 475908 478906 483903
489897
      492893 494888 495879 494872 492865 476823 473814 468801
461781
      456773 454770 448766 443765 441760 442755 444748 446742
451733
      461720 465717 470716 477715 484715 490712 496706 502703
508702
      512700 518695 519693 520688 519683 516674 515664
 0.25 497670 495662 492655 486649 479642 474640 465638 459638
450640
      443642 435646 432648 431652 430657 431662 433668 436673
447682
      460706 467702 474700 484696 491691 493689 497683 498674
497670
 0.25 467870 466859 464848 463838 460829 457821 452816 444810
438809
      435812 431826 420834 417839 417848 423863 427872 430880
432916
      439943 437951 437960 440963 444959 448953 450947 454934
457919
      461904 465891 467884 467874 467870
 0.25 472158 470154 470154 468152 465151 463152 464155 465157
467159
      470161 472158
 0.25 414010 414998 411991 409980 408977 405975 399978 394984
392991
      390001 387017 384035 384041 386046 389050 390054 388058
387060
      389063 391064 394066 399066 406064 410060 410049 413030
414010
 0.50 489667 486663 482659 478656 475654 467651 458651 449654
444660
      445666 452674 456676 460682 463689 465692 469694 475693
483688
      485684 488678 490671 489667
 0.50 458869 458863 457858 454851 446844 442841 439847 437861
438871
      438877 440897 441907 444916 446924 449928 453914 454907
456900
      458885 458869
 1.00 479676 478672 476668 475668 472667 471667 469669 468670
469674
      471678 473680 473680 477680 479677 479676
24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 499625 495615 491608 489603 486600 483596 479591 474596
468604
      465609 463610 459606 454602 451600 447599 444598 441599
428611
      417623 414628 412634 412640 406645 402650 401656 402664
400668
      397670 384677 371688 350709 342717 334726 320744 307763
304769
      298774 291785 279803 274812 270822 261842 249865 248870
248874
      249880 252884 255884 258882 261881 263883 265891 268897
275905
      280907 286908 298902 302900 303904 301916 302929 303936
307938
      311938 315936 329928 339920 348913 358905 374890 388885
395883
      398884 401888 402892 403902 405909 410914 423919 431920
437922
      447921 461918 468916 476911 486904 504882 517868 521863
525860
      528857 532851 536848 537844 540841 543835 542831 543824
546821
      547811 543810 540809 537811 530815 525818 521819 518818
519816
      522811 530799 534792 533786 531784 525783 521779 520775
520771
      521766 524758 525751 526742 527733 528723 528712 526700
524693
      521687 517678 513672 508665 504658 490640 497634 499625
 0.01 535225 537210 537195 537181 536169 532142 532133 529126
522118
      510105 496095 483083 475077 472075 465073 458070 453064
442051
      436045 431047 428049 422049 418047 412047 409049 394056
388062
      384069 384076 389083 396087 401085 405083 398128 405132
404141
      403144 404149 409156 411160 412164 416176 420184 423186
427187
      429183 432179 433173 433166 427148 427135 428130 431124
435121
      438124 438128 437131 434136 432139 432145 431150 431156
442170
      443175 442182 441186 441190 443196 447195 455192 460185
463173
      466172 469170 472167 475161 474152 474147 476144 482145
487147
      500151 504154 505159 501159 496159 493163 491169 492175
498183
      503193 505196 508197 514199 516202 518210 535225
 0.25 485665 482658 480654 476652 472651 456647 448647 442650
438652
      432655 426659 420664 415669 406678 396683 386690 376696
367704
      359712 343730 332744 327753 323759 320767 322770 328770
335766
      341761 347759 353757 355760 355763 358775 360781 364784
371778
      380769 382770 384774 383780 378790 373797 361812 350826
338842
      334850 332856 332860 333864 340868 341869 341873 338882
334891
      336893 340890 347882 362867 373854 387840 391837 397833
409831
      419829 429831 432833 435839 435845 431849 425856 423861
424862
      429864 435864 443868 457883 464891 467892 471891 477883
480873
      483860 487847 490832 491818 496768 497738 497710 497703
496697
      491686 487673 485665
 0.25 298839 297835 294832 286834 284833 284828 283821 281821
278823
      276829 274835 273842 274846 273850 272855 272858 275858
283855
      288852 292847 297842 298839
 0.50 478711 477703 475697 473691 469686 464682 461682 451681
436678
      374704 362717 351731 345739 348741 350740 370727 379722
385722
      386726 384731 380738 376746 375752 375757 377761 381758
384757
      388757 391758 398761 400765 403766 407767 411768 415771
413778
      408783 400788 391791 384795 371809 366815 362821 354837
350858
      352864 353865 359860 370847 378832 384823 391815 395812
400811
      407811 413814 421814 430814 435814 439815 443817 446821
449830
      449838 449849 450855 453860 458867 464875 469878 471873
471865
      473854 475840 481822 484799 484784 485775 485762 483746
481739
      480729 479718 478711
24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 370659 364665 359670 358673 345687 336700 328712 318724
311734
      303747 296758 269808 265821 262834 262839 264842 268843
271841
      275836 277830 283815 291802 299789 307780 317768 322763
327758
      332753 335748 342743 344740 346738 351734 354730 362724
367718
      376712 392699 400694 406689 414683 419681 421682 424682
428686
      432693 443706 442710 440715 436721 429729 427734 425738
422747
      420756 419761 420767 419771 415774 407779 399782 392786
385791
      382793 379797 374804 364816 360820 360823 362828 366829
369830
      375829 387817 395813 399812 402814 407820 411824 415823
419819
      423813 427814 428816 433824 439826 445832 446837 446841
444845
      441847 432850 424849 420850 415852 410854 408857 407860
409863
      415869 420872 426873 430874 434873 441873 446871 451869
456869
      458871 460879 461887 460893 462899 463902 467904 472902
475898
      478893 479887 480881 479874 477867 474861 472852 467843
461838
      456831 456825 456821 457812 460805 464799 472795 480794
487793
      496791 503787 509784 514783 522784 525784 530782 538776
540766
      537743 536735 535729 531715 524690 518672 510647 504633
501629
      500625 497622 486598 480587 477582 473579 468578 464577
461577
      455579 448587 432605 428611 423616 409629 397638 392642
389643
 0.01 522125 522120 520115 516109 506099 501094 494091 489089
485084
      476071 475065 476062 481058 486053 491047 494041 494032
493027
      490024 488022 484024 480023 478015 475013 471014 467017
463015
      460009 458996 456984 452981 446982 440986 436992 434998
434008
      435021 435029 433035 434041 436047 441053 443055 441059
438063
      435068 434074 435080 439084 436089 431089 428088 424087
424091
      424096 422098 418102 404094 403098 402103 399105 389110
384114
      384119 385120 390123 394123 401125 405129 412130 434120
438121
      444126 446129 445133 442136 443143 447149 450154 454155
467149
      473146 479146 483148 487149 489148 500141 514133 520129
522125
 0.01 476924 476919 475915 471914 468913 462914 454919 449923
44