AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
330 AM PDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST               
CALIFORNIA TODAY THUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS              
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION                      
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR EARLY                     
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
06Z NAM AND RUC MODEL DATA INDICATES RAPID DRYING LATER THIS AFTERNOON          
ALONG THE COAST THUS EXPECTING CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF             
DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND THIS            
MORNING MAY BE THE CABOOSE OF THIS WINTER/SPRING`S RAIN TRAIN...AS              
LONG TERM FORECAST MODELS DEPICT A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN                
SHAPING AS WE HEAD INTO MAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER            
THE WEST BEGINNING ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE               
ACROSS THE PACNW LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO                
ONLY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE ORCA BORDER OR POSSIBLE                       
DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD             
IN OVER THE WEST ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH 583 DM 500 MB            
HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY NEXT SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SCT SHRA WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST THIS             
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING                   
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY               
VFR ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR EARLY              
THIS MORNING AND IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING              
SKIES CAN BE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  MAB                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND THIS                     
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THUS            
THE GOING PACKAGE WILL REFLECT RELATIVELY SUBDUED CONDITIONS WITH NO            
ADVISORIES.  LONGER PERIOD W SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY               
MONDAY WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS POSSIBLY WARRANTING SMALL                   
CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.  MAB                                                  
NOTE...CDIP BUOY 46212 REMAINS OUT OF COMMISSION WITH NO ESTIMATED              
DATE OF REDEPLOYMENT. MAB                                                       
&&                                                                              
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA                                              
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
958 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOW RIDGING OVER                
THE REGION WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER                
THE CENTRAL PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY LIFTING NEWD. AT SFC...HIGH                
PRES HAS SHIFTED SE WITH A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE S HALF OF              
ZONES SO WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY OUT              
OF THE E AND SE. JAX SOUNDING SHOWS PWATS HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY                 
SINCE YESTERDAY AND A STRONGER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LITTLE                  
LOWER AROUND 850 MB. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION              
TO GENERATE A HEALTHY CU FIELD LATER IN THE DAY.                                
AS FAR AS THE WILD FIRE IN WARE COUNTY...SMOKE PLUME THIS MORNING               
IS ORIENTED SW-NE PER VIS IMAGERY PRESUMABLY DUE TO BACKED FLOW                 
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPED. DEEPER ELY FLOW TODAY AS                 
NOTED IN SOUNDING AND SLOW VEERING OF WINDS WILL ADVECT THE SMOKE               
TO THE W AND THEN NW. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AND                    
WINDS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS                  
FROM MID 70S COAST TO LOWER 80S INLAND.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BENIGN WX PATTERN AND SCT                
CU MAINLY AT NE FL TAF SITES. BRIEF CIGS POSSIBLE DUE SHOULD BE                 
VFR ALL DAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BASED ON BUOY REPORTS AND GUIDANCE WILL LET THE ADVISORY              
EXPIRE AT OR BEFORE 11 AM. SEAS FROM 41012 ARE AROUND 5 FT AND 3-4              
FT IN OUR SE GA WATERS. MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE DOWN SCEC IN NEAR SHORE             
WATERS AND GO WITH 3-5 FT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...A CHALLENGING FIRE WX FORECAST AGAIN WITH MARGINAL              
RED FLAG FOR FL ZONES. BASED ON RECOMPUTED RH VALUES...RED FLAG                 
WARNING IN OUR FL ZONES COULD BE EXPANDED BUT AM HESITANT TO DO                 
THIS BASED ON YESTERDAY`S EVENT WHERE DEWPOINTS DID NOT DROP AS                 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN DEWPOINTS IS LIKELY                
OVER SE GA. BASED ON COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND MOS                    
GUIDANCE SEEMS VERY POSSIBLE TO GET 4 HOURS LOW RH DURATION IN A                
FEW SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THEREFORE WILL         
LIKELY ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING BEFORE NOON.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  81  49  83  52 /   0   0   0  10                                           
SSI  73  60  75  61 /   0   0   0   0                                           
JAX  77  52  81  54 /   0   0   0  10                                           
SGJ  75  57  78  59 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GNV  81  50  84  54 /   0   0   0  10                                           
OCF  82  50  83  53 /   0   0   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.                                      
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-            
     COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.                         
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     APPLING-BACON-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS.                                           
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS               
     MORNING FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM             
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/MCALLISTER                                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER TOPEKA KS                                                      
1008 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. CLOUDS                
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AT MID MORNING. WINDS HAVE                  
INCREASED RAPIDLY IN THIS AREA AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WIND                  
ADVISORY WEST TO ABILENE AND NORTHEAST TO HOLTON FOR TODAY.                     
THE UPPER LOW WAS NEAR KHLC WITH DRY SLOT WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL                
KANSAS. THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR HAYS THIS MORNING AND NEW RUC MOVES            
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY LINE                
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH                
BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AS UPPER LOW MOVE                    
NORTHEAST AND ERODES MID LEVEL CAP. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE              
NEBRASKA BORDER WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.              
WE WILL BE LAUNCHING AN 18Z RAOB BALLOON TODAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW                 
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO. A DRY INTRUSION AT 850-600MB WAS                    
PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KS. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE SLOWLY ADVANCE                
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS.                                                    
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS LIFT THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN              
NE AND WESTERN IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE              
THE CLOUD COVER BREAK UP A BIT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS                 
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN              
KS THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE GET SOME INSOLATION THIS                               
AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING WILL CAUSE THE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE              
WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN                 
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO CAP THUS                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOVING EAST            
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON               
WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO                   
DEVELOP. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PROFILES WILL BE                    
SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO ROTATE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY              
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE                
HAIL. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN SOUTH TO              
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENHANCED                  
LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MAY CAUSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT             
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES             
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DEPENDENT            
ON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. IF            
WE HOLD ON TO THE CLOUD COVER THE INSTABILITY WILL BE REDUCED WHICH             
COULD KEEP MANY STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATES SHOULD              
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE AFTERNOON                 
SUNSHINE. 850MB WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE FORECASTED TO             
BE 40 TO 45 KTS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. IF SKIES CLEAR THE                
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO 850MB AND THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR PARCEL             
WILL MIX DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY SURFACE            
WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS TO INCREASE AT OR                
ABOVE 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE             
I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A                    
HERINGTON TO ALMA TO TOPEKA TO OSKALOOSA LINE.                                  
THIS EVENING THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE                       
CWA...BRINGING AN END TO ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. I KEPT 20 POPS               
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 02Z. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR               
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND              
DECREASE IN SPEED BELOW 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP              
INTO THE 50S.                                                                   
WE`LL BE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ON MONDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR            
ADVECTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID             
70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                                                    
THE NEXT 5H TROUGH LOOKS VERY INTENSE OFF THE OR AND CA COAST.                  
THIS 5H TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON                
MONDAY. A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO               
THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DEEPER              
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO                  
WESTERN KS. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING              
MOIST AXIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS               
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS              
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.                           
ON TUESDAY THE INTENSE 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE                   
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KS...SOUTHWARD INTO              
NORTH TEXAS. DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH INCREASING                
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC                      
FRONT/DRYLINE. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE SCATTERED             
DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS/SQUALL                
LINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.               
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WHEN THEY MOVE                
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING                  
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS               
MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH              
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.                                            
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY AND                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE             
CWA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE                  
COOLER WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...ALSO COLDER AIR            
WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE PACIFIC                
COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING WITH                
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S....WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING                  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.                                                   
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON                          
THURSDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE              
MID TO UPPER 60S. FRIDAY LOOKS WARMER AS A 5H RIDGE MOVES EAST                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID              
70S                                                                             
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER 5H TROUGH MOVING EAST TOWARDS            
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CWA. THE CURRENT EXTENDED RANGE               
FORECAST GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.                            
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH              
700 PM CDT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO              
HOLTON LINE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
639 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE                     
TERMINALS WITH CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 080 TO 100 RANGE. KHYS MAY                 
SEE A PERIOD OF BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY TODAY,                      
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT. THE MAIN STORY             
WILL BE THE WIND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS               
THIS MORNING MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WINDS                 
WILL VEER AROUND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AND WILL              
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME                  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS END ACROSS SOUTHWEST          
KANSAS THIS MORNING AND THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY           
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.                                                            
THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE           
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WAS             
LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE              
MCS THAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE SEVERE CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE                 
EVENING HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA OF                      
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO UNDER THE                   
UPPER SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF STORMS WAS PIVOTING OUT INTO WEST                    
CENTRAL KANSAS.                                                                 
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST                  
THIS MORNING BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW               
STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A TIME...SIMILAR              
TO WHAT IS FORECAST BY THE RUC. HAVE REORIENTED POPS IN THAT AREA               
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. AFTER THAT TIME, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE                   
LOWER LEVELS MIXING OUT TO AROUND 700 MB WITH A SMALL POSITIVE                  
AREA. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD               
POOL ALOFT MOVES OUT. DOUBT IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT                    
PRECIP WITH THESE SHOWERS SO THE SILENT POPS IN PLACE OUGHT TO                  
HANDLE IT.                                                                      
ON MONDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS NOW APPROACHING THE COAST OF                
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH                  
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE                
MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS              
BORDER WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS                    
PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON                 
EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE, THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES              
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE            
CWA WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING. HAVE                 
REORIENTED POPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO REFLECT THIS.                
THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW               
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO IT.                                                        
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN WILL BE CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF              
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TO AFFECT               
THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE               
FROM THE UKMET/GFS, THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS             
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN KS ON TUESDAY.               
THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KS              
DURING THE DAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS AHEAD OF IT OVER MAINLY            
MY EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL             
MOST LIKELY BE EAST OF MY CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE WRAP               
AROUND PRECIP ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN                 
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER              
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END              
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM WESTERN KS. DID NOT PULL             
POPS COMPLETELY AS THE UKMET STILL HAS THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH                 
CENTRAL KS ON WEDNESDAY. THE POP/WX GRIDS WERE TWEAKED TO FOLLOW                
ALONG WITH THE FORECAST REASONING.                                              
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK            
BUT THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF/GFS ALL KEEP THE                  
SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE AND NORTH OF KANSAS. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS                
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT, THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG RAIN PRODUCER            
FOR MY CWA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF US ON FRIDAY AND ALL THE                 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. WILL THEREFORE BACK OFF            
TO SILENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.                                              
ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.             
I TRENDED COOLER IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE COOL AIR ON THE                  
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. ON WEDNESDAY, 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT              
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S OVER THE EAST AND 60S IN THE WEST WITH COOL               
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED FOLLOWING THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  72  47  74  55 /  10   0  30  50                                           
GCK  72  45  74  54 /  10   0  30  40                                           
EHA  74  44  77  54 /  10   0  20  30                                           
LBL  74  46  76  56 /   0   0  30  40                                           
HYS  69  45  72  55 /  30   0  30  50                                           
P28  74  51  76  60 /  10   0  40  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN02/27/27                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
312 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS END ACROSS SOUTHWEST          
KANSAS THIS MORNING AND THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY           
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.                                                            
THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE           
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WAS             
LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE              
MCS THAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE SEVERE CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE                 
EVENING HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA OF                      
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO UNDER THE                   
UPPER SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF STORMS WAS PIVOTING OUT INTO WEST                    
CENTRAL KANSAS.                                                                 
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST                  
THIS MORNING BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW               
STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A TIME...SIMILAR              
TO WHAT IS FORECAST BY THE RUC. HAVE REORIENTED POPS IN THAT AREA               
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. AFTER THAT TIME, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE                   
LOWER LEVELS MIXING OUT TO AROUND 700 MB WITH A SMALL POSITIVE                  
AREA. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD               
POOL ALOFT MOVES OUT. DOUBT IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT                    
PRECIP WITH THESE SHOWERS SO THE SILENT POPS IN PLACE OUGHT TO                  
HANDLE IT.                                                                      
ON MONDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS NOW APPROACHING THE COAST OF                
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH                  
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE                
MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS              
BORDER WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS                    
PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON                 
EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE, THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES              
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE            
CWA WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING. HAVE                 
REORIENTED POPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO REFLECT THIS.                
THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW               
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO IT.                                                        
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN WILL BE CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF              
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS TO AFFECT               
THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE               
FROM THE UKMET/GFS, THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS             
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN KS ON TUESDAY.               
THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KS              
DURING THE DAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS AHEAD OF IT OVER MAINLY            
MY EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL             
MOST LIKELY BE EAST OF MY CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE WRAP               
AROUND PRECIP ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN                 
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER              
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END              
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM WESTERN KS. DID NOT PULL             
POPS COMPLETELY AS THE UKMET STILL HAS THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH                 
CENTRAL KS ON WEDNESDAY. THE POP/WX GRIDS WERE TWEAKED TO FOLLOW                
ALONG WITH THE FORECAST REASONING.                                              
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK            
BUT THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF/GFS ALL KEEP THE                  
SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE AND NORTH OF KANSAS. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS                
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT, THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG RAIN PRODUCER            
FOR MY CWA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF US ON FRIDAY AND ALL THE                 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. WILL THEREFORE BACK OFF            
TO SILENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.                                              
ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.             
I TRENDED COOLER IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE COOL AIR ON THE                  
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. ON WEDNESDAY, 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT              
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S OVER THE EAST AND 60S IN THE WEST WITH COOL               
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED FOLLOWING THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.                       
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  72  47  74  55 /  10   0  30  50                                           
GCK  72  45  74  54 /  10   0  30  40                                           
EHA  74  44  77  54 /  10   0  20  30                                           
LBL  74  46  76  56 /   0   0  30  40                                           
HYS  69  45  72  55 /  30   0  30  50                                           
P28  74  51  76  60 /  10   0  40  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN02/27                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
1059 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG              
SFC-850MB THETA-E AXIS...AND ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE                
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM W AR NWD INTO MO TO THE PARENT CLOSED LOW                 
NOW ENTERING E NE. BOTH THE NEW RUC AND 12Z NAM INITILIZED TOO FAR              
W WITH THESE FEATURES...THUS HAVE SPED UP POPS FOR SW AR AND                    
REMOVED AFTERNOON MENTION. DID UP POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE FAR N              
SW AR COUNTIES PER RADAR TRENDS...AND ASSUMPTION THAT TROUGH AXIS               
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT MORE NEWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PARENT LOW.               
PLENTIFUL SFC-850MB MOISTURE NOTED ALONG THE S EXTENT OF THE                    
THETA-E RIDGE OVER E TX/W LA...WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH                        
ADDITIONAL GULF INFLOW...BUT MAY GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY MID/LATE                  
AFTERNOON. ALREADY NEARING LAKE WIND ADV. CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN               
E TX...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING MAY LIMIT                          
MIXING/POTENTIAL TO ONLY A SMALL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                    
OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS IN FORECAST MAX TEMPS               
BASED ON 15Z OBS...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.                                   
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                                                             
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT             
TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4 KFT BY 18Z. VSBYS...RESTRICTED BY HAZE IN THE            
3 TO 5 MILE RANGE IN MANY AREAS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO P6SM AS BRISK              
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS MIX AIR FROM ALOFT. ISOLATED TSTMS                
WILL BE CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND            
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONLY TERMINALS TO HAVE ANY SHOWER OR TSTM                   
ACTIVITY WITIN 25 MILES AFT 18Z TAF ISSUE WOULD BE TXK AND ELD...               
AND MAYBE SHV...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION.                                  
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...BUT LOOK            
FOR A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEGINNING AROUND 23/07Z AND                 
OCCASIONAL BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 23/10Z AND 23/14Z.                  
TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS...WILL BE               
LFK. SHV MAY REPEAT IFR CIGS.  CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR AFT 23/16Z.               
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 12 TO 16 KT SUSTAINED                     
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS BY 23/01Z.              
WINDS NOT AS STRONG MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED. /14/         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  82  63  84  65 /  10  10  10  20                                           
MLU  81  61  82  64 /   0   0  10  10                                           
DEQ  78  59  82  63 /  20  20  10  20                                           
TXK  79  64  81  66 /  20  20  10  20                                           
ELD  81  61  82  63 /  10  10  10  20                                           
TYR  80  64  81  66 /  10  10  10  20                                           
GGG  81  63  82  66 /  10  10  10  20                                           
LFK  81  64  83  67 /   0  10  10  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/14                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
FEW UPDATES TO FORECAST THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE HI PRES IN                   
PLACE THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ANOTHER QUIET WARM SPRING DAY                 
TODAY. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT SO SURE DW PTS                
WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY TODAY AS YESTERDAY IN SW FLOW. KEPT DW               
PTS ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE THRU THIS EVENING. ZFPAKQ ALREADY OUT.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                      
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES WERE PRIMARILY IN REFINING TEMPERATURES.                  
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN              
CONUS...WITH CLOSEST RADAR ECHOES OF NOTE OVER THE PLAINS STATES.               
ANOTHER WARM/DRY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT              
SE...MOVING OFF CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTN. RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS                
THIS AFTN...AND WARM/DRY RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS L/M 80S            
EASILY ATTAINABLE FOR MOST OF CWA...TO AROUND 80 AT IMMEDIATE COAST             
AND OVER EASTERN SHORE.                                                         
EXPECTING SEA BREEZE TO AGAIN PLAY A ROLE OVER COASTAL PLAIN THIS               
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN AGAINST IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH VRY LGT SYNOPTIC              
WNDS THIS AFTN. HV MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS             
TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MID TO LT AFTERNOON IVOF                    
ORF/CPK/NCZ102.                                                                 
USED MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN...AND TRENDED TOWARDS             
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH LTL/ANY DISCERNIBLE CLOUD COVER            
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NGT.                                        
ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY ON TAP FOR MONDAY...WITH M/U 80S LOOKING                   
POSSIBLE FOR PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA (L/M 80S AT COAST) WITH                    
ROBUST RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY AFTN.                                              
WENT CLOSER TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. CLOUDS                  
SLOWLY INCREASE BY MONDAY NGT/ERY TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER                 
MAKER.                                                                          
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN EXTENDED WAS IN TIMING AND DETERMINING PCPN                
CHANCES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.                                                   
STILL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WL REMAIN NORTH            
OF THE AREA....GENERALLY REMAINING ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND           
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA AND EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VLY. 00Z/APR22               
GFS DOES BRING BACKDOOR FRONTAL BNDRY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN NAM.             
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT                
THIS SOLN ATTM. FOR NOW...WL PUSH FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS FAR NORTHERN            
COUNTIES...RESULTING IN MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY...AND                    
REMAINING WITHIN WARM SECTOR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...WL            
INCREASE CLD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
RIC-WAL AND NORTH FOR TUES NGT/WED. FUTURE SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO                 
ADJUST THIS AS NECESSARY. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT                  
MEAGER AVAILABLE PCPN (PW VALUES REMAIN UNDERWHELMING) AND LACK OF              
ANY VIABLE CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO BOLSTER BELIEF THAT ANY PCPN THAT            
DOES THREATEN THE AREA WL BE LGT AND VERY SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE.              
FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. AGREE WITH GOING FORECAST THAT A             
SIZABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD EXIST BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN          
CWA...WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND SCTD SHRAS HOLDING TEMPS BACK               
A BIT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER              
THAN MEX VALUES GIVEN LACK OF MODEL CONTINUITY OF LATE.                         
NEXT...AND MORE LKLY PCPN THREAT COMES WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI. LOW PRESSURE WL DEVELOP OVER THE MO VLY BY                 
THU...TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE              
CONTINUES TO KEEP BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA.                      
NONETHELESS...CONTINUING THE GOING CHC (30) POP FOR SHRAS/TSTMS AS              
H5 TROF PUSHES THROUGH ERY FRIDAY INTO FRI AFTN LKS GOOD.                       
DRIER WX MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WK HIGH              
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WL LEAVE FRIDAY NGT AND                  
SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.                                                           
AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                           
VFR THRU PRD. WNDS BELOW 10 KTS. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLDS XPCTD.                    
MARINE...                                                                       
NO FLAGS THRU MON AS HIGH PRS MOVES OFFSHORE. WNDS AOB 15 KTS.                  
SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL. DATA                     
SUGGESTS OUR TYPICAL NOCTURNAL SPIKE IN SW WNDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
ERLY TUE...BUT WILL HOLD WNDS TO ARND 15 KT ATTM. BKDR FRNT NOW                 
PROGGED TO ENTER NRN HALF OF MARINE AREA LATE TUE...TURNING WNDS                
INTO A E-SE DRCTN TUE NITE. FRNT THEN PROGGED TO LIFT BACK N AS A               
WRM FRNT WED...RESULTING IN SW WNDS ONCE AGAIN.                                 
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
LOW RH ONCE AGAIN TODAY. UTILIZED RUC/LOCAL WRF MODIFIED SOUNDING               
AND TRENDED RH/DEWPOINT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...GIVEN POOR MODEL                  
PERFORMANCE ON TD OF LATE. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH DRYING FUELS...LGT               
WNDS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONSIDERABLY. EVEN               
STILL.. WL AGAIN MENTION DRY COND IN FWF...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON ANY               
STATEMENTS ATTM.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SMF                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
329 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                     
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES WERE PRIMARILY IN REFINING TEMPERATURES.                  
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN              
CONUS...WITH CLOSEST RADAR ECHOES OF NOTE OVER THE PLAINS STATES.               
ANOTHER WARM/DRY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT              
SE...MOVING OFF CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTN. RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS                
THIS AFTN...AND WARM/DRY RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS L/M 80S            
EASILY ATTAINABLE FOR MOST OF CWA...TO AROUND 80 AT IMMEDIATE COAST             
AND OVER EASTERN SHORE.                                                         
EXPECTING SEA BREEZE TO AGAIN PLAY A ROLE OVER COASTAL PLAIN THIS               
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN AGAINST IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH VRY LGT SYNOPTIC              
WNDS THIS AFTN. HV MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS             
TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MID TO LT AFTERNOON IVOF                    
ORF/CPK/NCZ102.                                                                 
USED MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN...AND TRENDED TOWARDS             
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH LTL/ANY DISCERNIBLE CLOUD COVER            
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER GOOD RADIATING NGT.                                        
ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY ON TAP FOR MONDAY...WITH M/U 80S LOOKING                   
POSSIBLE FOR PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA (L/M 80S AT COAST) WITH                    
ROBUST RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY AFTN.                                              
WENT CLOSER TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. CLOUDS                  
SLOWLY INCREASE BY MONDAY NGT/ERY TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER                 
MAKER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN EXTENDED WAS IN TIMING AND DETERMINING PCPN                
CHANCES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.                                                   
STILL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WL REMAIN NORTH            
OF THE AREA....GENERALLY REMAINING ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND           
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN VA AND EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VLY. 00Z/APR22               
GFS DOES BRING BACKDOOR FRONTAL BNDRY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN NAM.             
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING THAT WOULD SUPPORT                
THIS SOLN ATTM. FOR NOW...WL PUSH FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS FAR NORTHERN            
COUNTIES...RESULTING IN MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY...AND                    
REMAINING WITHIN WARM SECTOR. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...WL            
INCREASE CLD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
RIC-WAL AND NORTH FOR TUES NGT/WED. FUTURE SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO                 
ADJUST THIS AS NECESSARY. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT                  
MEAGER AVAILABLE PCPN (PW VALUES REMAIN UNDERWHELMING) AND LACK OF              
ANY VIABLE CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO BOLSTER BELIEF THAT ANY PCPN THAT            
DOES THREATEN THE AREA WL BE LGT AND VERY SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE.              
FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. AGREE WITH GOING FORECAST THAT A             
SIZABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD EXIST BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN          
CWA...WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND SCTD SHRAS HOLDING TEMPS BACK               
A BIT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER              
THAN MEX VALUES GIVEN LACK OF MODEL CONTINUITY OF LATE.                         
NEXT...AND MORE LKLY PCPN THREAT COMES WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI. LOW PRESSURE WL DEVELOP OVER THE MO VLY BY                 
THU...TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE              
CONTINUES TO KEEP BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA.                      
NONETHELESS...CONTINUING THE GOING CHC (30) POP FOR SHRAS/TSTMS AS              
H5 TROF PUSHES THROUGH ERY FRIDAY INTO FRI AFTN LKS GOOD.                       
DRIER WX MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WK HIGH              
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WL LEAVE FRIDAY NGT AND                  
SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                          
VFR THRU PRD. WNDS BELOW 10 KTS. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLDS XPCTD.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO FLAGS THRU MON AS HIGH PRS MOVES OFFSHORE. WNDS AOB 15 KTS.                  
SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL. DATA                     
SUGGESTS OUR TYPICAL NOCTURNAL SPIKE IN SW WNDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
ERLY TUE...BUT WILL HOLD WNDS TO ARND 15 KT ATTM. BKDR FRNT NOW                 
PROGGED TO ENTER NRN HALF OF MARINE AREA LATE TUE...TURNING WNDS                
INTO A E-SE DRCTN TUE NITE. FRNT THEN PROGGED TO LIFT BACK N AS A               
WRM FRNT WED...RESULTING IN SW WNDS ONCE AGAIN.                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
LOW RH ONCE AGAIN TODAY. UTILIZED RUC/LOCAL WRF MODIFIED SOUNDING               
AND TRENDED RH/DEWPOINT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...GIVEN POOR MODEL                  
PERFORMANCE ON TD OF LATE. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH DRYING FUELS...LGT               
WNDS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONSIDERABLY. EVEN               
STILL.. WL AGAIN MENTION DRY COND IN FWF...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON ANY               
STATEMENTS ATTM.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MONTEFUSCO                                                         
LONG TERM...MONTEFUSCO                                                          
AVIATION...RUSNAK                                                               
MARINE...RUSNAK                                                                 
FIRE WEATHER...MONTEFUSCO                                                       
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
431 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                                
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND TIMING THE               
ENDING OF PCPN MON.                                                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE              
LIFTING NE THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA. AT THE             
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER ERN NEBRASKA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT            
TRANSITIONING TO COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE TOWARD KDLH AND CYQT. WITH             
FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE SPREADING NE...SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING                  
QUICKLY NE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME...AS                
EXPECTED...CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED THIS AFTN              
GENERALLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. SFC DWPTS WERE SLOW TO FALL              
THRU EARLY AFTN...BUT ONCE MIXING BECAME SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO TAP               
THE DRY AIR ALOFT INDICATED BY 12Z KGRB SOUNDING AND TAMDAR                     
SOUNDINGS AT KSAW...DWPTS STARTED TO FALL. IN ADDITION...TEMPS HAVE             
RISEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS...RH HAS DROPPED WELL              
DOWN INTO THE 20S. GUSTY WINDS ARE INCREASING THE CRITICAL FIRE                 
WX CONDITIONS.                                                                  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD FRONT              
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...REACHING THE W DURING THE                 
EVENING AND EXITING THE E AROUND 12Z. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE                  
WEAKENING AND THERE IS ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...EXPECT                  
FORCING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS DECENT SHRA COVERAGE ALONG/BEHIND             
SHARP COLD FRONT TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY IS QUITE STRONG            
WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR WIDEPSREAD PCPN. AS FOR SVR THREAT...            
0-3KM MUCAPE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR              
IS SUFFICIENT (30-40KT) FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...LACK OF CAPE SUGGEST            
LITTLE/NO SVR THREAT. ON LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A               
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AS SHARP WIND SHIFT               
CROSSES THE LAKE. NAM HAS 950MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40KT OVER THE E             
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND RUC13 SHOWS SFC WINDS JUST SHY OF GALES.              
ALTHOUGH PROFILE DOES NOT BECOME UNSTABLE OVER THE LAKE...LOW-LEVEL             
CAA IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP TO 30KT FOR NOW.                 
INHERITED FCST LOOKED FINE FOR TIMING ENDING OF SHRA FROM W TO E MON            
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWING. LOWERED               
TEMPS A BIT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF MARQUETTE AS A STIFF N TO NW                
WIND IS EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.                                   
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                     
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER              
ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN                    
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...ACROSS THE BORDER AND INTO TRI-STATE                
REGION.  WITH THIS STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD IT WILL REMAIN                  
DIFFICULT FOR THE ALREADY WEAKENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL                  
KANSAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND INFLUENCE OUR                  
ONGOING DRY WEATHER.  UNLIKE OUR BRIEF GLIMPSE OF SUMMER LIKE                   
TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR                     
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES...IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S                
SOUTH.                                                                          
AT 500MB THE 00Z CANADIAN RUN FOR THIS NEXT LOW TO CROSS THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS...WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT            
SYSTEM SITTING OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS ALSO IS A STRIKING                 
COMPARISON TO THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS FROM YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH            
THE GFS HAVING GONE BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND CONSENSUS                
BACKING THIS UP...WILL DISCARD THE 00Z CANADIAN.  THIS WILL CONTINUE            
TO MEAN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER PENINSULA. AT THIS                  
TIME...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY 50 OR SO MILES TO THE SOUTH OF                  
MENOMINEE.                                                                      
AS FOR CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME                    
FIGURING OUT WHERE TO PLACE THE NEXT CUT OFF LOW OVER THE                       
SOUTHWESTERN STATES.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST RUNS HAVE PLACED IT              
ABOUT 500 MILES FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND OVER THE BAJA REGION INSTEAD            
OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  THE 06Z GFS SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE             
MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH ITS 00Z RUN MORE OF A COMPROMISE                
BETWEEN THE MORE EASTWARD 00Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF. GENERALLY                 
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 (THURSDAY THROUGH                    
SUNDAY)...WHICH WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS              
ENS MEAN.  SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HPC GUIDANCE WAS TO LOWER POPS             
SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING OUR DRY               
FORECAST IN PLACE.  AFTER THAT...HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW               
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE OVER THE               
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION                 
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH            
THE SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z SUNDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 RED FLAG WARNING MIZ004-005-010>012 UNTIL 8 PM EDT TODAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (SHORT TERM)                                                            
KF (LONG TERM)                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1230 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE              
LIFTING NE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA. CLOSER             
TO HOME...DRY AIRMASS COVERS MUCH OF WI/UPPER MI PER EARLY MORNING              
TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSAW AND 12Z KGRB SOUNDING. AMOUNT OF DRY AIR              
AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN RAISES FIRE WX CONCERNS AS MIXING TO 800MB ON             
KGRB SOUNDING WOULD BRING SFC DWPTS DOWN TO THE MID 30S. WITH HIGHS             
NEARING 80F...RH WOULD FALL TO NEAR 20PCT. HOWEVER...ITS TOUGH TO               
DETERMINE IF DWPTS WILL FALL THAT FAR AS THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT                
MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST (NOTE THE MOIST PROFILE ON             
12Z KMPX SOUNDING). APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD PLAY A ROLE AS                 
SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW/MIDLEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF IT SHOULD HELP                    
MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR OVER ERN WI INTO MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.               
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20MPH...TEMPS RISING TO 75-80F OVER MUCH             
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER AND RH DROPPING TOWARD 25PCT...IT WILL BE A              
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY...ESPECIALLY BTWN L`ANSE/MARQUETTE AND IRON                
RIVER/MENOMINEE. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE E OF ESCANABA            
MAY NOT RISE ABOVE THE LWR 50S WITH A STIFF WIND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.             
OVER THE FAR W...SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT NEAR APPROACHING COLD                 
FRONT MAY ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATE...RESULTING IN A SHARP              
TEMP DROP NEAR THE LAKE LATE IN THE AFTN.                                       
AS FOR PCPN...TRIMMED BACK EWD PROGRESS OF SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN UPPER             
MI LATE THIS AFTN BASED ON THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA. AS COLD FRONT             
OVER NE MN MOVES INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT...BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A              
NICE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TO ACT UPON...               
RESULTING IN DECENT PCPN COVERAGE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT)...                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE              
GRT LKS BTWN LARGER SCALE TROFS OVER THE W AND IN THE WRN ATLANTIC.             
CWA DOMINATED BY SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND            
LO PRES TROF STRETCHING FM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MN ON THE ERN FLANK            
OF WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH 00Z GRB/MPX/APX SDNGS ARE QUITE DRY AND                   
CAPPED...A FEW SHRA/TSRA NOTED OVER OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INTO              
ERN LK SUP WHERE SHRTWV RUC SHOWS MOVING THRU NRN MN/ADJOINING                  
ONTARIO IS INTERACTING WITH H85 WARM FNT ON THE NRN EDGE OF MID LVL             
CAPPING MARKED BY H7 TEMP ARND 2C. SKIES MOCLR TO THE S OF WARM FNT             
DESPITE STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX SDNG ABV H7 WARM            
NOSE/CAP. MORE WDSPRD CNVCTN HAS BROKEN OUT AS FAR E AS WRN MN ALG              
WARM FNT IN ADVANCE OF POTENT SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.            
OTHER SHRTWVS ROTATING WITHIN WRN TROF ARE LOCATED OVER SRN                     
SASKATCHEWAN AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST.                                         
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND DISPOSITION OF ONGOING CNVCTN              
FM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO ERN LK SUP AND FIRE WX ISSUES. FOCUS FOR               
TNGT/MON SHIFTS TO SHRA/TSRA CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW LIFTING            
OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.                                                         
FOR EARLY THIS MRNG...RUC SHOWS SHRTWV HELPING TO INITIATE CNVCTN               
ALG H85 WARM FNT MOVING ENE THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP. MODEL SHOWS               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND WAD LINGERING OVER ERN             
LK SUP UNTIL ABOUT 09Z WHEN THE SYS IS PROGGED TO MOVE CLOSER TO                
JAMES BAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED             
WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARD WRN LK SUP BY 12Z. SO                
EXPECT CNVCTN OVER NE LK SUP TO DIMINISH BY FCST ISSUANCE...BUT WL              
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCT TSRA OVER WRN LK SUP THIS MRNG. THIS NEXT               
SHRTWV FCST TO SLIDE NE INTO ONTARIO AS WELL BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF               
DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF STRONGER SHRTWV FCST TO REACH             
IA BY 00Z MON ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS INDICATE             
MID LVLS WL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED THRU MOST OF THE DAY TO KEEP             
LAND FA DRY EVEN THOUGH SCT SHRA/TSRA WL PERSIST OVER WRN LK SUP ON             
EDGE OF CAP AND CLOSER TO APRCHG COOL FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW            
IN SASKATCHEWAN. BULK OF MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF OVER THE FAR              
WRN ZNS BY 00Z MON JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FNT. CONSIDERING DRY            
NATURE OF LLVLS TO THE SW (MIXING TO H8 ON 00Z MPX SDNG WOULD YIELD             
SFC DWPT ARND 40...DVN SDNG IS EVEN DRIER) AS WELL AS ACYC H85 FLOW             
IN ADVANCE OF FNT...THINK GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE AT               
SPITTING OUT PCPN EVEN OVER THE FAR W BEFORE 00Z AND COLD FROPA...              
ESPECIALLY SINCE BOTH MODELS PUSH SFC DWPTS INTO THE LOW 50S AT IWD             
BY 00Z. BUT SINCE GOING FCST HAS CHC POPS OVER THE FAR W AFT 21Z AND            
MODELS GENERATE SOME QPF...WL MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS FM CMX-IWD. AS               
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...MIXING TO H8-825 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS WOULD             
SUPPORT HI TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE AWAY FM THE MODERATING                   
INFLUENCE OF LK MI. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM MPX/DVN SDNGS...MODELS              
LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE AT RETURNING LLVL MSTR AND PUSHING DWPTS AOA 50.            
IF DWPTS ARE 40 E TO 48 W...EXPECT RH TO DROP AS LO AS 25 TO 30 PCT             
AGAIN. WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY (NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS SHOW                 
MIXED LYR WINDS INCRSG TO 25 TO 35 KT)... FIRE WX PARAMETERS WL                 
APRCH CRITICAL LVLS AGAIN TDAY.                                                 
FOR TNGT...NAM/GFS DIVERGE ON FCST OF HANDLING OF SHRTWV IN IA AT               
00Z MON...WITH GFS SHOWING SHRTWV MOVING TO JUST S OF GRB AT 12 MON             
WHILE NAM HOLDS SHRTWV BACK OVER NW IL. WITH SUPPORT FM THE MOST                
CONSISTENT 00Z UKMET (WHICH IS NCEP FVRD MODEL)...WL FOLLOW THE MORE            
SIMILAR GFS SCENARIO. MEANWHILE... GFS/UKMET FCST SHRTWV IN                     
SASKATCHEWAN THIS PAST EVNG TO MOVE ACRS ONTARIO...WITH ACCOMPANYING            
SFC COLD FNT MOVING TO ABOUT P53-MNM BY 12Z MON. SINCE THESE SHRTWVS            
ARE FCST TO REMAIN OUT OF PHASE THRU THE NGT...GFS SHOWS TWO STRIPES            
OF HEAVIER PCPN. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OVER THE WRN ZNS DURING THE              
NGT DUE TO MORE SGNFT UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF UPR JET SUPPORTING ONTARIO             
SHRTWV AS WELL AS SHARP H85-7 FGEN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SFC FNT.               
GFS SHOWS THESE DYNAMICS TENDING TO SHIFT MORE NE DURING THE                    
NGT...SO ITS HEAVIER QPF DOES NOT SPREAD E. THE UKMET ON THE OTHER              
HAND INDICATES THE SHARPER UPR DVGC/FGEN WL SPREAD FARTHER E...SO IT            
DRAGS HEAVIER PCPN INTO THE CNTRL ZNS BY 12Z.  THE GFS ALSO FCSTS AN            
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF ACRS THE SCNTRL ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV                   
PASSAGE THRU WI AND WHERE INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE.                 
CONCERNING SVR THREAT...OLD DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAD MUCH OF THE            
W HALF OF THE FA IN SLGT RISK. THINK BEST CHC OF SVR TSRA WOULD BE              
IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FROPA OVER THE             
W WHEN FCST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50KT WOULD BE BETTER PHASED WITH              
LOWER SSI FCST IN THE -2C TO -3C RANGE/STEEPER SFC-H8 LAPSE RATES               
THAT WOULD ALLOW MORE EFFICIENT TRANSFER OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC.             
HOWEVER... MODIFIED GFS FCS SDNG FOR IWD AT 00Z FOR SFC T/TD 73/50              
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID LVL TEMPS THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY GFS YIELDS            
MO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. ALTHOUGH WBZ FCST            
AT A FVRBL 9.5K FT...FCST MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WOULD HAVE A                     
DIFFICULT TIME SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL. FCST LAPSE RATES/SHEAR PROGGED            
TO DIMINISH SGNFTLY AFT 06Z...SO ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH                 
OVERNGT AS THE FNT PUSHES E. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NEW DAY1                    
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NO LONGER SHOWS THE FA IN THE SLGT RISK.                     
SINCE NCEP INDICATES THE GFS BECOMES TOO FAST ON MON...TENDED TO                
FOLLOW THE UKMET FCST FOR FCST PREPARATION. AS PAIR OF SHRTWVS MOVE             
TO THE E...MODEL FCSTS COLD FROPA AT ERY BY 15Z...WITH LINGERING                
DEEP MSTR/SHARP H85-7 FGEN CLEARING THAT POINT BY 18Z. WL KEEP                  
LINGERING HIER POPS OVER THE E HALF IN THE MRNG WITH POPS TO THE W              
DIMINISHING W-E AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA. SINCE               
UKMET IS SLOW TO LOWER H85 DWPT (SIMILAR TO OTHER MODELS)...SUSPECT             
THERE WL BE A GOOD AMT OF SC IN THE AFTN OVER AREAS INLAND FM THE               
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP. MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE                 
LATER IN THE DAY...SO EXPECT CLRG OF THE SC LATER WITH LOWERING SUN             
ANGLE. MON WL TURN OUT MUCH COOLER WITH UKMET SHOWING H85 TEMP                  
LOWERING TO 2 TO 4C BY 00Z TUE.                                                 
QUIET AND COOLER WX LOOKS ON TAP MON NGT THRU MOST OF THE REST OF               
THE WEEK AS CNDN HI PRES BLDS FM THE NW TERRITORIES INTO ONTARIO.               
NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD CA LOOKS LIKE IT WL REMAIN WELL TO THE            
S AS IT MOVES E. JUST MINOR CHGS TO MESH BETTER WITH SURROUNDING                
OFFICES MADE TO GOING FCST.                                                     
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 RED FLAG WARNING MIZ004-005-010>012 UNTIL 8 PM EDT TODAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE              
GRT LKS BTWN LARGER SCALE TROFS OVER THE W AND IN THE WRN ATLANTIC.             
CWA DOMINATED BY SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND            
LO PRES TROF STRETCHING FM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MN ON THE ERN FLANK            
OF WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH 00Z GRB/MPX/APX SDNGS ARE QUITE DRY AND                   
CAPPED...A FEW SHRA/TSRA NOTED OVER OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INTO              
ERN LK SUP WHERE SHRTWV RUC SHOWS MOVING THRU NRN MN/ADJOINING                  
ONTARIO IS INTERACTING WITH H85 WARM FNT ON THE NRN EDGE OF MID LVL             
CAPPING MARKED BY H7 TEMP ARND 2C. SKIES MOCLR TO THE S OF WARM FNT             
DESPITE STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX SDNG ABV H7 WARM            
NOSE/CAP. MORE WDSPRD CNVCTN HAS BROKEN OUT AS FAR E AS WRN MN ALG              
WARM FNT IN ADVANCE OF POTENT SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.            
OTHER SHRTWVS ROTATING WITHIN WRN TROF ARE LOCATED OVER SRN                     
SASKATCHEWAN AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST.                                         
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND DISPOSITION OF ONGOING CNVCTN              
FM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO ERN LK SUP AND FIRE WX ISSUES. FOCUS FOR               
TNGT/MON SHIFTS TO SHRA/TSRA CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW LIFTING            
OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.                                                         
FOR EARLY THIS MRNG...RUC SHOWS SHRTWV HELPING TO INITIATE CNVCTN               
ALG H85 WARM FNT MOVING ENE THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP. MODEL SHOWS               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND WAD LINGERING OVER ERN             
LK SUP UNTIL ABOUT 09Z WHEN THE SYS IS PROGGED TO MOVE CLOSER TO                
JAMES BAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED             
WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARD WRN LK SUP BY 12Z. SO                
EXPECT CNVCTN OVER NE LK SUP TO DIMINISH BY FCST ISSUANCE...BUT WL              
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCT TSRA OVER WRN LK SUP THIS MRNG. THIS NEXT               
SHRTWV FCST TO SLIDE NE INTO ONTARIO AS WELL BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF               
DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF STRONGER SHRTWV FCST TO REACH             
IA BY 00Z MON ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS INDICATE             
MID LVLS WL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED THRU MOST OF THE DAY TO KEEP             
LAND FA DRY EVEN THOUGH SCT SHRA/TSRA WL PERSIST OVER WRN LK SUP ON             
EDGE OF CAP AND CLOSER TO APRCHG COOL FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW            
IN SASKATCHEWAN. BULK OF MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF OVER THE FAR              
WRN ZNS BY 00Z MON JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FNT. CONSIDERING DRY            
NATURE OF LLVLS TO THE SW (MIXING TO H8 ON 00Z MPX SDNG WOULD YIELD             
SFC DWPT ARND 40...DVN SDNG IS EVEN DRIER) AS WELL AS ACYC H85 FLOW             
IN ADVANCE OF FNT...THINK GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE AT               
SPITTING OUT PCPN EVEN OVER THE FAR W BEFORE 00Z AND COLD FROPA...              
ESPECIALLY SINCE BOTH MODELS PUSH SFC DWPTS INTO THE LOW 50S AT IWD             
BY 00Z. BUT SINCE GOING FCST HAS CHC POPS OVER THE FAR W AFT 21Z AND            
MODELS GENERATE SOME QPF...WL MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS FM CMX-IWD. AS               
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...MIXING TO H8-825 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS WOULD             
SUPPORT HI TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE AWAY FM THE MODERATING                   
INFLUENCE OF LK MI. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM MPX/DVN SDNGS...MODELS              
LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE AT RETURNING LLVL MSTR AND PUSHING DWPTS AOA 50.            
IF DWPTS ARE 40 E TO 48 W...EXPECT RH TO DROP AS LO AS 25 TO 30 PCT             
AGAIN. WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY (NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS SHOW                 
MIXED LYR WINDS INCRSG TO 25 TO 35 KT)... FIRE WX PARAMETERS WL                 
APRCH CRITICAL LVLS AGAIN TDAY.                                                 
FOR TNGT...NAM/GFS DIVERGE ON FCST OF HANDLING OF SHRTWV IN IA AT               
00Z MON...WITH GFS SHOWING SHRTWV MOVING TO JUST S OF GRB AT 12 MON             
WHILE NAM HOLDS SHRTWV BACK OVER NW IL. WITH SUPPORT FM THE MOST                
CONSISTENT 00Z UKMET (WHICH IS NCEP FVRD MODEL)...WL FOLLOW THE MORE            
SIMILAR GFS SCENARIO. MEANWHILE... GFS/UKMET FCST SHRTWV IN                     
SASKATCHEWAN THIS PAST EVNG TO MOVE ACRS ONTARIO...WITH ACCOMPANYING            
SFC COLD FNT MOVING TO ABOUT P53-MNM BY 12Z MON. SINCE THESE SHRTWVS            
ARE FCST TO REMAIN OUT OF PHASE THRU THE NGT...GFS SHOWS TWO STRIPES            
OF HEAVIER PCPN. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OVER THE WRN ZNS DURING THE              
NGT DUE TO MORE SGNFT UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF UPR JET SUPPORTING ONTARIO             
SHRTWV AS WELL AS SHARP H85-7 FGEN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SFC FNT.               
GFS SHOWS THESE DYNAMICS TENDING TO SHIFT MORE NE DURING THE                    
NGT...SO ITS HEAVIER QPF DOES NOT SPREAD E. THE UKMET ON THE OTHER              
HAND INDICATES THE SHARPER UPR DVGC/FGEN WL SPREAD FARTHER E...SO IT            
DRAGS HEAVIER PCPN INTO THE CNTRL ZNS BY 12Z.  THE GFS ALSO FCSTS AN            
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF ACRS THE SCNTRL ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV                   
PASSAGE THRU WI AND WHERE INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE.                 
CONCERNING SVR THREAT...OLD DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAD MUCH OF THE            
W HALF OF THE FA IN SLGT RISK. THINK BEST CHC OF SVR TSRA WOULD BE              
IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FROPA OVER THE             
W WHEN FCST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50KT WOULD BE BETTER PHASED WITH              
LOWER SSI FCST IN THE -2C TO -3C RANGE/STEEPER SFC-H8 LAPSE RATES               
THAT WOULD ALLOW MORE EFFICIENT TRANSFER OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC.             
HOWEVER... MODIFIED GFS FCS SDNG FOR IWD AT 00Z FOR SFC T/TD 73/50              
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID LVL TEMPS THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY GFS YIELDS            
MO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. ALTHOUGH WBZ FCST            
AT A FVRBL 9.5K FT...FCST MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WOULD HAVE A                     
DIFFICULT TIME SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL. FCST LAPSE RATES/SHEAR PROGGED            
TO DIMINISH SGNFTLY AFT 06Z...SO ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH                 
OVERNGT AS THE FNT PUSHES E. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NEW DAY1                    
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NO LONGER SHOWS THE FA IN THE SLGT RISK.                     
SINCE NCEP INDICATES THE GFS BECOMES TOO FAST ON MON...TENDED TO                
FOLLOW THE UKMET FCST FOR FCST PREPARATION. AS PAIR OF SHRTWVS MOVE             
TO THE E...MODEL FCSTS COLD FROPA AT ERY BY 15Z...WITH LINGERING                
DEEP MSTR/SHARP H85-7 FGEN CLEARING THAT POINT BY 18Z. WL KEEP                  
LINGERING HIER POPS OVER THE E HALF IN THE MRNG WITH POPS TO THE W              
DIMINISHING W-E AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA. SINCE               
UKMET IS SLOW TO LOWER H85 DWPT (SIMILAR TO OTHER MODELS)...SUSPECT             
THERE WL BE A GOOD AMT OF SC IN THE AFTN OVER AREAS INLAND FM THE               
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP. MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE                 
LATER IN THE DAY...SO EXPECT CLRG OF THE SC LATER WITH LOWERING SUN             
ANGLE. MON WL TURN OUT MUCH COOLER WITH UKMET SHOWING H85 TEMP                  
LOWERING TO 2 TO 4C BY 00Z TUE.                                                 
QUIET AND COOLER WX LOOKS ON TAP MON NGT THRU MOST OF THE REST OF               
THE WEEK AS CNDN HI PRES BLDS FM THE NW TERRITORIES INTO ONTARIO.               
NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD CA LOOKS LIKE IT WL REMAIN WELL TO THE            
S AS IT MOVES E. JUST MINOR CHGS TO MESH BETTER WITH SURROUNDING                
OFFICES MADE TO GOING FCST.                                                     
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
134 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...STRONG...DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE WILL MAINTAIN VFR              
CONDITIONS THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIN HIGH CIRRUS (DEBRIS FROM                
SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN) WILL                
PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL            
WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES DUE TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE            
THE SURFACE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST...AWAY FROM             
THE REGION. HOWEVER...STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE                 
WINDS FROM REACHING GROUND LEVEL UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE                
TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SW UNITED STATES CURRENTLY WILL TRACK            
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD            
OF THE SYSTEM...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE             
TAF PERIOD WITH PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.                             
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT SAT APR 21                                      
LATEST RUC AND SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE            
THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  TO THE WEST...A BROAD               
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT             
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO EXTENDING FROM THE PARENT LOW NORTH OF LAKE                
WINNIPEG.  DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER ON TODAY ACROSS                
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAVE STARTED PUSHING INTO THE AREA             
WITH THE MQT RADAR JUST SHOWING A FEW SPOTTY RETURNS OVER CENTRAL               
LAKE SUPERIOR (EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE) AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF            
LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE            
AXIS.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING REVOLVE               
AROUND THESE SPOTTY SHOWERS...THEN LOW TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.            
A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.  HAVE                     
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE                
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PASSING OVERHEAD.  HAVE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE OF A              
SPRINKLE ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY AND THE SOO DUE TO THESE SPOTTY                   
SHOWERS...JUST FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  ONE SHOWER TO THE EAST OF MQT            
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME BEEFIER RETURNS AT 3.5KFT THAT HAS POTENTIAL TO              
REACH THE GROUND DESPITE THE DRY AIR PRESENT (RUC ANALYZED 900-700MB            
RH 25-30 PCT). PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN LATE OVERNIGHT AS            
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ITS SE SLIDE.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON              
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL THEN KICK IN AND KEEP OUR                       
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS.                  
STILL BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE COLD SPOTS AND AREAS                 
ACROSS NE LOWER (WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LAST) WILL                
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S BUT FOR THE REMAINING AREAS...LOWS WILL FALL            
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.                                                   
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                              
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT APR 21                                   
A HUDSON BAY HIGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST SO THAT THE                  
RETURN FLOW IS SLOWLY STARTING. THE OMEGA BLOCK AT 500 MB IS                    
BREAKING DOWN SO THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT                  
LAKES. TO THE WEST OF THAT, THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO                
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST                
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE             
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AND WIND FOR SUNDAY.                                  
TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO PICK UP, BUT WITH THE SFC INVERSION            
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP THIS EVENING, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW            
10 MPH. WITH THE STRONG INVERSION AND LOWER SFC WINDS, THE HUMIDITY             
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO BE POOR WITH THE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO                  
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW              
HIGH CLOUDS SO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COOL THINGS A BIT, BUT              
IT WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE SOUTH WIND STAYS UP ALL            
NIGHT.                                                                          
SUNDAY...AS THE SUN PEEKS OVER THE HORIZON, THE TEMPERATURES WILL               
BEGIN TO ZOOM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SEVERAL LOWER 80S                  
THROWN IN. THE MET AND MAV NUMBERS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN PLN              
AND GLR TO THE LOWER 80S IN GOV, WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE LAKE                   
SHORES. 950 MB WINDS ON BOTH MODELS ARE RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS                  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED            
AROUND 15 KNOTS AT THE AVIATION SITES. FACTORING IN THE 20FT WIND               
LEVEL AND THE 10 MIN AVG OF THE RAWS SITES WOULD EXPECT THAT EVEN IF            
15 MPH ISN`T SUSTAINED, THERE WILL BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 MPH. THIS            
IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE`RE NOT GOING TO JUST MIX THROUGH 950 OR              
850 MB, BUT PROBABLY THROUGH 750 MB LIKE YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP              
KEEP THE SFC RH DOWN AS THE 850 MB RH IS EXPECT TO BE <10% ON THE               
NAM AND <25% ON THE GFS. WITH THE SW FLOW THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES               
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND +14C WHICH WHEN MIXED OUT WOULD BRING IN              
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SO, HOWEVER YOU CUT IT, IT            
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR THE AFTERNOON.                    
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE              
GREAT LAKES IN THE EVENING...AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE ROOKIES                 
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXTENDED MODELS BRING THE SYS INTO               
THE WRN LAKES BTW 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...THE UPPER                 
RIDGING PATTERN ALSO BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES                  
REGION...AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND                  
TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. THE UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE             
WRN LAKES AROUND 12Z MONDAY. 850/500 MB RH INCREASES TO 80 PCT OVR              
THE LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER LVL                     
FEATURES. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST            
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER WRN LWR AND EAST            
UPPER WHERE MSTR INCREASES FIRST. WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY            
IN THE 50S...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW.              
MONDAY...SURFACE FRONT MOVES OVER THE LAKES DURING THE DAY...EXITING            
INTO LAKE HURON AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES OVER             
THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING LATE             
AFTN. 850/500 MB RH QUICKLY BEGINS TO DRY OUT OVER THE WRN LAKES AFT            
18Z MONDAY...DROPPING FROM AROUND 80 PCT IN THE MORNING TO ARND 40              
PCT BY 21Z. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FCST AREA THRU THE                
MORNING. IN THE AFTN...WILL DROP POPS TO CHC OVER THE WRN CWA WHILE             
MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. WILL                 
MENTION DRY CONDS MONDAY NIGHT ACRS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...AS SFC               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACRS THE REGION AND UPPER ZONAL FLOW                  
PERSISTS. 850/500 MB RH SHOWING DRYING TO AROUND 30 PCT MONDAY NIGHT            
INTO TUESDAY. WILL MENTION AFTN HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE              
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND                  
CALMING WINDS...SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.                    
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND 500MB ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE               
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COLDER 850MB AIR WILL FILTER BACK OVER THE              
STATE DURING THE DAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM ARND 10C MONDAY TO             
AROUND +1C TUESDAY AFTN. WILL MENTION AFTN HIGHS IN THE 50S ACRS THE            
FCST AREA. OVERALL WILL MENTION DRY CONDS DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND                
850/500 RH AROUND 40 PCT. HOWEVER EXPECT AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT DUE TO             
850 AND 500 MB COLD POOLS ALOFT AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES.                      
SUBSIDENCE CONDS PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE WILL MENTION DRY             
CONDS INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                           
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SFC RIDGING AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT            
WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY INTO               
THURSDAY. WILL MENTION DRY CONDS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.            
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES            
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...               
MODEL BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL                   
FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING                
OVER THE SRN ROOKIES WED...AND WILL BEGIN PUSHING NORTH EARLY                   
THURSDAY MOVING TOWARD IND/ILL BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OVER             
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER MODELS DO HANDLE THE               
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO            
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF PUSHES THE SFC FEATURE FASTER TOWARD THE                
EAST COAST. AT UPPER LVLS...MODELS ARE DISORGANIZED WITH THE 500 MB             
TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY...MOVING            
INTO THE ERN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY                  
STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS BEING BROKEN DOWN TO FAST THURSDAY...WHILE                
MODELS KEEP THE SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. OVERALL THOUGHT              
IS FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY BUT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF                 
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY               
AFTN. OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE SLOWLY              
BACK INTO THE STATE FRIDAY...SO WILL MENTION DRY CONDS INTO FRIDAY              
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                 
SATURDAY...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST                   
AREA...AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES...WHILE AN            
UPPER TOUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS FRIDAY                      
NIGHT...AND INTO THE WRN LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                    
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
       RED FLAG WARNING...ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER...SUNDAY                        
AFTERNOON                 AND EARLY EVENING.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
100 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. VFR CLEAR               
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF             
A STRAY PATCH OF CIRRUS. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AT DET AND            
DTW...WINDS WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS WELL FROM LAKE                   
BREEZES FROM LAKE ERIE AND ST. CLAIR. BY SUNDAY MORNING...STRONGER              
GRADIENT BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXPECT SSW WIND TO INCREASE             
TO 12 TO 17 KNOTS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1030 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2007                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR GRIDS EDITS. THOSE MINOR EDITS             
WERE TO BRING MORE LAKE BREEZE IN THE WIND GRIDS...AND LOWER THE DEW            
POINTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. RUC SURFACE WINDS WERE MUCH BETTER            
THAN NAM IN REGARD TO THE LAKE BREEZE. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO            
PUSH IN ABOUT 10 TO 15 MILES TODAY GIVE THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE               
REGION AND THE LAND/LAKE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THEN THE DEW POINTS            
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 30 NOW THAT WE HAVE              
STARTED TO MIX THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE THROUGH               
MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN 12Z SOUNDING AND WEAK SURFACE WIND.                       
TEMPS IN GENERAL RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS. 12Z             
SOUNDING MIXING TO 750 MB...WHICH WE DID YESTERDAY...WOULD YIELD                
ABOUT 74.  ALL OF THIS RIGHT IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST.                     
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
THE ONLY VARIATION ON THE THEME OF IDEAL WEATHER IN SE MICHIGAN                 
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE GRADUAL EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE SURFACE             
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW TO                  
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE             
ABOUT A CATEGORY OVER YESTERDAY, MEANING MID 70S OVER SE LOWER AWAY             
FROM THE SHORELINES OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE                
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WE WILL TAILOR HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IN                 
THOSE AREAS IMPACTED BY AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LAKE BREEZE. THE               
MOST DRAMATIC ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE WHERE            
UPPER 50S WILL BE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE              
DAY.                                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND INCREASE              
THE GRADIENT OVER SE MICHIGAN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE                   
PLAINS. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MUCH OF AN                   
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AS STRONG DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE              
NIGHT. THE RESULTING SLOW RETURN IN SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP                  
DEW POINT IN THE UPPER 30S AND ALLOW ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THAT BEING SAID, EVEN A 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING            
KEEPS READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER                   
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM              
INTO THE LOWER TEENS ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST                         
GRADIENT...LEADING TO MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGHOUT                  
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND POSSIBLY EVEN 80              
DEGREES TOWARD THE TRI-CITIES REGION.                                           
EVEN SO...NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FIRE WX WATCH DUE TO THE RH                 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 25 PERCENT. 00Z NAM/GFS INDICATING                
SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S. AFTER SUBTRACTING               
OUT THE MOIST LOW LEVEL BIAS OF THE MODELS (UP TO 10 DEGREES AS                 
OBSERVED YESTERDAY)...STILL THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MAINTAIN DEW              
POINTS BELOW 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT RH`S AT OR              
BELOW 25 PERCENT. IT LOOKS TO REAL CLOSE CALL AND WOULD NOT TOTALLY             
RULE OUT A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED OVER MIDLAND/BAY/SAGINAW               
COUNTIES HOWEVER.                                                               
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHERN              
CALIFORNIA TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.                  
INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AND SUPPORT JUST A              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                          
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY MONDAY                         
EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE                  
OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PER 00Z                
EUROPEAN.                                                                       
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE SLIDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY                   
EVENING WILL CAUSE 850-700 MB FGEN TO INCREASE ALONG WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER SOUTHERN LOWER                              
MICHIGAN...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE              
OHIO BORDER...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE              
OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS EVEN INDICATING THE                  
SHOWALTER INDEX GOING NEGATIVE NEAR THE BORDER...AND HAVE ADDED A               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS WELL.                           
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON                   
WEDNESDAY AND TWEAK MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE             
HURON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...RBP                                                                  
SHORT TERM...BT/RBP                                                             
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1032 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR GRIDS EDITS. THOSE MINOR EDITS             
WERE TO BRING MORE LAKE BREEZE IN THE WIND GRIDS...AND LOWER THE DEW            
POINTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. RUC SURFACE WINDS WERE MUCH BETTER            
THAN NAM IN REGARD TO THE LAKE BREEZE. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO            
PUSH IN ABOUT 10 TO 15 MILES TODAY GIVE THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE               
REGION AND THE LAND/LAKE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THEN THE DEW POINTS            
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 30 NOW THAT WE HAVE              
STARTED TO MIX THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE THROUGH               
MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN 12Z SOUNDING AND WEAK SURFACE WIND.                       
TEMPS IN GENERAL RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS. 12Z             
SOUNDING MIXING TO 750 MB...WHICH WE DID YESTERDAY...WOULD YIELD                
ABOUT 74.  ALL OF THIS RIGHT IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 647 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2007                            
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
THE ONLY VARIATION ON THE THEME OF IDEAL WEATHER IN SE MICHIGAN                 
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE GRADUAL EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE SURFACE             
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW TO                  
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE             
ABOUT A CATEGORY OVER YESTERDAY, MEANING MID 70S OVER SE LOWER AWAY             
FROM THE SHORELINES OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE                
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WE WILL TAILOR HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IN                 
THOSE AREAS IMPACTED BY AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LAKE BREEZE. THE               
MOST DRAMATIC ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE WHERE            
UPPER 50S WILL BE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE              
DAY.                                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND INCREASE              
THE GRADIENT OVER SE MICHIGAN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE                   
PLAINS. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MUCH OF AN                   
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AS STRONG DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE              
NIGHT. THE RESULTING SLOW RETURN IN SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP                  
DEW POINT IN THE UPPER 30S AND ALLOW ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THAT BEING SAID, EVEN A 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING            
KEEPS READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER                   
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM              
INTO THE LOWER TEENS ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST                         
GRADIENT...LEADING TO MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGHOUT                  
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND POSSIBLY EVEN 80              
DEGREES TOWARD THE TRI-CITIES REGION.                                           
EVEN SO...NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FIRE WX WATCH DUE TO THE RH                 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 25 PERCENT. 00Z NAM/GFS INDICATING                
SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S. AFTER SUBTRACTING               
OUT THE MOIST LOW LEVEL BIAS OF THE MODELS (UP TO 10 DEGREES AS                 
OBSERVED YESTERDAY)...STILL THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MAINTAIN DEW              
POINTS BELOW 40 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT RH`S AT OR              
BELOW 25 PERCENT. IT LOOKS TO REAL CLOSE CALL AND WOULD NOT TOTALLY             
RULE OUT A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED OVER MIDLAND/BAY/SAGINAW               
COUNTIES HOWEVER.                                                               
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHERN              
CALIFORNIA TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.                  
INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AND SUPPORT JUST A              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                          
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY MONDAY                         
EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE                  
OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PER 00Z                
EUROPEAN.                                                                       
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE SLIDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY                   
EVENING WILL CAUSE 850-700 MB FGEN TO INCREASE ALONG WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER SOUTHERN LOWER                              
MICHIGAN...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE              
OHIO BORDER...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE              
OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS EVEN INDICATING THE                  
SHOWALTER INDEX GOING NEGATIVE NEAR THE BORDER...AND HAVE ADDED A               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS WELL.                           
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON                   
WEDNESDAY AND TWEAK MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE             
HURON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.                            
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR AVIATION                
INTERESTS TODAY BUT LOSE ITS GRIP A BIT TONIGHT WHILE SLIDING                   
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY              
THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A STRAY PATCH OF CUMULUS OR PATCH OF                 
CIRRUS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERLY                       
COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BT                                                                   
SHORT TERM...BT/RBP                                                             
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
350 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG CENTERED              
OVER THE GRT LKS BTWN TROFS IN THE WRN ATLANTIC AND OVER THE W. SFC             
HI CENTER OVER LWR MI AND DRY/STABLE AIRMASS (PWAT 0.40 INCH E TO               
0.60 INCH W) SHOWN ON LOCAL 00Z RAOBS BRINGING A TRANQUIL NGT TO THE            
FA. CLOSEST PCPN IS SOME SHRA/ TSRA MOVING THRU WRN MN WHERE PAIR OF            
SHRTWVS NOTED BY RUC ANALYSIS MOVING NE THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON THE              
WRN FLANK OF UPR RDG INTERACTING WITH HIER H85 DWPTS/LLJ AXIS/MORE              
SGNFT MSTR CNVGC/AXIS OF H7-5 LAPSE RATE AOA 8C/KM. HI CLD BLOWING              
DOWNSTREAM FM THIS CLUSTER OF CNVCTN MOVING TOWARD WRN LK SUP. A                
MORE POTENT SHRTWV NOTED OVER SRN CA MOVING THRU THE BASE OF THE WRN            
TROF. ANOTHER SHRTWV NOTED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.                               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY INTO SUN WL BE FIRE WX. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO            
PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION BTWN SHRTWV NOW OVER SRN CA               
AND THE OTHER NOW IN BRITISH COLUMBIA.                                          
FOR TDAY...NAM F0 APPEARS TO HAVE VERY GOOD HANDLE ON SHRTWV                    
STRUCTURE/STABILITY/MSTR OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPR LKS...SO WL FOLLOW             
ITS GUIDANCE. THIS MODEL SHOWS UPR RDG REMAINING PRETTY MUCH IN                 
PLACE TDAY DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGER HGT FALLS OVER THE WRN PLAINS                 
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SYS LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW. SFC HI                 
CENTER PROGGED TO DRIFT S TO NEAR CLE BY 00Z...WITH STRENGTHING SLY             
FLOW (H925 WINDS INCRSG TO 30KT BY 00Z SUN) BTWN THIS HI AND FALLING            
PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN. SHARP RDG FCST TO DEFLECT WEAKER              
SHRTWVS NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS MORE NNE VS E...SO NAM FCST              
SHRA STAYING TO THE W SEEMS RSNBL. GFS ALSO IS DRY. WL HOWEVER                  
MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS OVER WRN LK SUP CLOSER TO AXIS OF HIER                     
RETURNING H85 DWPTS/KINX  THRU MN AND WHERE SOME DEEP LYR H85-3                 
QVECTOR CNVGC NOTED. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD OVER             
THE W WITH MORE SUNSHINE TO THE E DEEPER INTO DRIER AIRMASS. MIXING             
TO H8 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS RISING TO ARND 73 OVER THE             
W...WITH DWPT ARND 40 (RH 30 PCT). AIRMASS WL REMAIN DRIER OVER THE             
E BUT TEMPS WL BE LOWER DOWNWIND OF LK MI. WL ISSUE WILDFIRE                    
POTENTIAL STATEMENT TO STRESS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX PARAMETERS.                 
TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW PROGGED TO REACH KS BY               
12Z SUN WHILE SYS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO APRCH LK WINNIPEG.              
GUIDANCE SHOWS UPR RDG AXIS SHIFTING E A TAD...BUT GFS/NAM INDICATE             
ALL OF LAND FA WL REMAIN DRY WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING A CAPPED WARM              
SECTOR. WL INCLUDE CHC SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN/NRN LK SUP AS SHRTWS                  
MOVING ARND RDG AXIS PASS NW OF THE FA AND INTERACT WITH AXIS OF                
HIER H85 DWPT CLOSER TO EDGE OF CAP. GFS/NAM FCST H925 WINDS ARND               
40KT ON WRN FLANK OF SFC HI MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...SO LOOK              
FOR RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMP EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE MORE               
CLR OVER THE SCNTRL AND E. MIN TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM                  
IWD-P59-MQT-P53 WL NOT FALL BLO 50. GOING FCST LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD               
HANDLE ON PATTERN OF LO TEMPS...BUT BUMPED UP EXPECTED TEMPS IN                 
DOWNSLOPE AREAS TOWARD HI END OF MOS GUIDANCE.                                  
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD                
INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z MON AND WEAKENING AS SYS MOVES AWAY FM            
LARGER SCALE WRN TROF. MEANWHILE...OTHER SHRTWV MOVING ACRS SRN CAN             
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. AS SHRTWVS CLOSE IN            
ON THE FA AND DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ARRIVING IN THE AFTN...              
MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING OVER THE NW ERODING BTWN 18Z-24Z.               
GFS IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE AT MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE AND                 
GENERATING QPF OVER THE W. CONSIDERING THE DRY AND CAPPED ANTECEDENT            
AIRMASS AND THE VERY LATE ARRIVAL OF THE MORE SGNFT DYNAMICS WITH               
THE SHRTWV PAIR REMAINING OUT OF PHASE...PREFER THE SLOWER NAM. THIS            
MODEL GENERATES ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT IWD BEFORE 00Z              
MON. THE UKMET IS ALSO SLOWER TO SATURATE THE AIR OVER THE FAR W AS             
WELL. LARGE SCALE ACYC H85 FLOW FCST AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX...             
SO PCPN IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SFC FNT ACCOMPANYING THE                
ONTARIO SHRTWV PASSES AND FAIRLY SHARP H85-7 FGEN ARRIVES SUN                   
EVNG...WL KEEP THE LAND FA DRY ON SUN. FARTHER E...PCPN ON SUN IS A             
NON ISSUE WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALL DAY. MIXING TO H825 OR SO ON              
NAM FCST SDNGS IN THE WARM SECTOR SUG HI TEMPS WL APRCH 80 AWAY FM              
THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SINCE RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING WL              
ALSO TAP DRIER LYR FCST ARND H85...DWPTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE                 
MID-UPR 30S IN THE AFTN OVER THE E AND DROP THE RH TOWARD 25 PCT IN             
AREAS THAT ESCAPE SGNFT COOLING DOWNWIND OF LK MI.                              
SFC LO/LO PRES TROF ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING UP FM THE UPR MS              
VALLEY PROGGED TO REACH THE SRN ZNS BY 12Z MON WHILE SFC COLD FNT               
ACCOMPANYING SHRTWV MOVING ACRS ONTARIO REACHES THE CNTRL ZNS PER               
PREFERRED NAM/UKMET. PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED GOING FCST OF LIKELY                
POPS ADVANCING W-E WITH THESE FEATURES. SINCE MODELS CONSISTENTLY               
SHOW PAIR OF SHRTWVS REMAINING OUT OF PHASE...SUSPECT ACCOMPANYING              
SHRA WL NOT BE TOO HEAVY WITH FAIRLY HEALTHY H85-7 FGEN BEHIND NRN              
BRANCH COLD FNT TENDING TO STAY FARTHER N. FCST SDNGS SHOW RATHER               
UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES...SO CALLED PCPN LIKELY -SHRA WITH JUST A              
CHC T.                                                                          
SINCE EVEN THE SLOWER NAM/UKMET BRING MUCH DRIER E INTO THE FA ON               
MON AFTN...CUT POPS W-E FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. GFS SHOWS NEXT               
SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE SW FARTHER N TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST ON TUE            
WITH SOME LGT QPF OVER THE SRN TIER. UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES INTO                  
BETTER AGREEMENT...FOLLOWED THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF/CNDN MODELS...            
WHICH SHOW THIS SYS/HIER RH REMAINING FARTHER S. SO NO CHGS MADE TO             
DRY TUE FCST.                                                                   
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1119 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAD TO UPDATE ONCE AGAIN TO INCREASE TEMPS EVEN HIGHER. AT 11                   
AM...READINGS AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND                  
LOWER 70S...ALREADY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS/MAV GUIDANCE. IN                    
CREASING CLOUDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER              
70S THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT 60S                
WILL PREVAIL.                                                                   
THIS INCREASED HEATING AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THIS                 
MORNING WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT               
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE POOR CONFIDENCE IN MODEL                         
CAPE/INSTABILITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO WARMER SFC TEMPS                
THAN FCST...STALLED FRONT...AND POOR HANDLING OF YESTERDAY AND                  
LAST NIGHTS DEVELOPMENT. SUSPECT RUC/NAM ARE UNDERESTIMATING                    
INSTABILITY/CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINT                         
DEPRESSIONS IN NW WIS ARE INCREASING AND RANGE 20 TO 25 DEGREE                  
SPREADS. ELEVATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL                
BE THE MAIN THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007/                         
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER...TEMPS...AND MORNING POPS TODAY.                   
CURRENT ASOS/RAWS OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC CYCLONE              
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A NEWRD EXTENDING FRONT POSITIONED                 
THROUGH SW MN...NE INTO NC MN. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW CLOUD                
DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FOUND AHEAD OF IT. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM               
NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA TODAY. INCREASED        
MAX TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES IN WI ZONES WHERE THEY WILL SEE                   
PLENTY OF SUN BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING. TEMPS AT 9 AM              
IN NW WIS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.                                   
ALTHOUGH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DEFINED BY THE SPC WAS SHIFTED                    
SOUTH AND OUT OF THE DLH CWA...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND CAN STILL                  
EXPECT TO SEE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A FEW WILL                 
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. EARLY MORNING ACCUS SEEN NW                
OF DULUTH IMPLIES THERE IS INSTABILITY TO TAP LATER TODAY AS THE                
FRONT APPROACHES.                                                               
ATTM...THE FAVORED TIME FRAME AND LOCATION FOR STORM                            
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF               
THE SFC FRONT. A STRONG SW MEAN WIND WILL RESULT IN NE TRACKING                 
STORMS...ALL SHIFTING TO THE SE WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT THE TSTMS                
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING              
INTO HEAVY RAIN IN NW WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA CONTINUE                
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER               
THERE IS MORE RAIN APPROACHING OUR WRN ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.                
THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS OUR WRN AND NRN ZONES              
THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE                     
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN                   
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND IN                 
TURN INCREASED SENSIBLE HEATING WHICH SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZE THE               
ATMOSPHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM HAS MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING              
TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...WHILE 0-3KM SRH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM               
100 TO 200 M2/S2. THIS COMBINATION IS NOT SIGNIFICANT BY ANY                    
MEANS...BUT IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE INITIATED                
BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY              
AND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE LARGE SCALE                  
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS            
THE MIDWEST.                                                                    
THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OVER NWRN WI BY EARLY THIS                        
EVENING...THEN EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE               
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND COOLING FROM THE                                  
PRECIP...INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY                             
TONIGHT...DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE                 
WEATHER. BY MONDAY MORNING...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER               
ACROSS NWRN WI AS THE FORCING MOVES WELL TO THE EAST...AND HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE                
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS              
FOR THE NORTHLAND.                                                              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  73  41  57  36 /  60  60  10  10                                           
INL  61  36  56  30 /  50  10  10  10                                           
BRD  71  41  60  37 /  70  50  10  10                                           
HYR  76  46  62  35 /  40  70  20  10                                           
ASX  74  44  57  35 /  50  70  20  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
129 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND REFRESH                 
GRIDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST SHORT TERM...AS BEST                  
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE OVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON FAR                  
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE                  
TREND OF LATEST RUC 13 AND 4 KM WRF REFLECTIVITY TRENDS SHOW                    
WEAKENING TREND AS UPPER JET TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND                 
EAST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
REMNANTS OF MORNING CONVECTION HAVE PRETTY MUCH LIFTED OUT OF AREA              
WITH ONE AREA OF REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E TWIN CITIES METRO             
INTO W WI.  THESE SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF AREA BY 6 PM.  GOOD              
MIXING IN S MN HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.  WILL               
LEAVE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SC MN UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.  MAIN                 
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE IN WC MN WHERE AXIS OF                  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. BY 06Z RATHER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE            
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET COMES INTO PLAY PROVIDING A               
GOOD LIFTING MECHANIZM.  CONTINUED TO CARRY A POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN            
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ANOTHER PUSH            
OF WARM ADVECTION.  STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO               
AREA INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROF WITH PWATS OVER 1.25              
INCH. FEEL THAT MAIN WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL                
PROBABLY BE HEAVY RAINS WITH SOME HAIL WITH HIGH PWATS AND CONTINUED            
STRONG FORCING KEEPING AREA MAINLY CLOUDY.  VERY MILD TEMPERATURES              
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTH FLOW AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS             
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  LEFT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR SOUTHERN                
AREAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN SHOULD LIMIT              
THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF PRECIPITATION.                                        
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING OR BLUE                          
EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-REDWOOD-                                  
STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY(IES).                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/JPR                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
304 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED TODAY ALONG A THERMAL AXIS                  
FROM THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE TWIN PORTS...AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-35               
CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE TSTMS BECAME LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE                      
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SW LL FLOW ALLOWED FOR THE STORMS TO                  
MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE NNE AT 40 TO 45 KT. ALTHOUGH NO WIND                   
DAMAGE WAS REPORTED WITH THE FAST MOVING STORMS...PLENTY OF HALF                
INCH HAIL ACCOMPANIED THESE CELLS. THE THERMAL RIDGE HAS DRIFTED                
ABOUT 30 MILES EAST FROM THIS MORNING AND IS NOW ALONG A LINE                   
FROM BAYFIELD TO RICE LAKE...AND INTO THE ERN TWIN CITIES METRO.                
THE RUC ALSO SHOWS THIS REGION IS CO-LOCATED WITH A NARROW AREA                 
OF MAX ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS BOUNDARY LAYER MASS CONVERGENCE.              
THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL                
CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ALONG THE THERMAL RIDGE IN NW WIS THIS                     
EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.                                             
FORECAST FOCUS TURNING TO THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS ON SUNDAY AS               
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION.              
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN                 
WISCONSIN.                                                                      
OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A              
50 KT SW LLJ ENTERS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY             
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY            
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN WRN AND NRN MN. MINOR CHANGES TO POPS                    
OVERNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH NAM/GFS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE                  
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE MAX QPF OVERNIGHT...THE GFS IS                   
STRONGER AND DEEPENS THE SFC FRONT INTO A 998 LOW IN NC MN BY SUNDAY            
MORNING. DUE TO THE POOR HANDLING OF THE LINE OF STORMS                         
TODAY...SIGNIFICANT FURTHER SE THAN MODELS DEPICTED...DECREASED                 
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS PLACEMENT OF THE QPF OVERNIGHT.                        
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS NW MN SUNDAY                      
MORNING...DECREASING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS BEHIND IT. MUCH            
DRIER AIR AND CAA WILL FILTER INTO NW MN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE               
EXTEND OF THE DRY AIR IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS AND             
NAM ARE BRINING IT FURTHER SE INTO THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS            
DRY AIR WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA TO SEE             
ANY STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE ALSO                    
TRENDING WITH A FASTER FROPA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS             
TO REFLECT THEES TRENDS.                                                        
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY              
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CASS LAKE...TO HIBBING...AND INTO THE            
MN ARROWHEAD. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WI AND             
INTO SW MN...WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.             
MUCAPE VALUES SUNDAY AFTN/EVEN ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 1000             
AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE 0-3KM SRH VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM                
100-200 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT FOR               
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. REFER TO THE THE DAY TWO SPC OUTLOOK             
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.                                                            
THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR FA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME                 
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY               
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY               
AND MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL               
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED              
FOR NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM FROM CANADA.                                                             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  47  64  41  57 /  30  70  70  10                                           
INL  49  62  37  49 /  70  60  10  10                                           
BRD  55  65  43  62 /  40  70  70  10                                           
HYR  55  71  44  60 /  10  60  80  10                                           
ASX  53  70  42  57 /  10  70  70  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
915 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED EAST WHILE THE                  
STORM TRACK TO THE NNE. THE LINE OF STRUMS EXTENDS FROM                         
ELY...SOUTH THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR                
INTO THE TWIN CITES. RUC 925MB WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE                
ARE UPWARDS OF 30KT FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A NOSE OF MAX H850 TEMPS              
AND WAA FEEDING INTO THE LINE OF STORMS. AT 9 AM...SMALL HAIL OF                
1/4 INCH WAS REPORTED IN HINCKLEY.                                              
INCREASED THE LIKELY TSTM POPS FURTHER EAST THIS MORNING.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...REMNANTS OF                  
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS...HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO                  
AFFECT OUR WRN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTY WINDS HAVE               
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS...BUT THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN                
FAIRLY MODEST. WE EXPECT THESE LINE OF STORMS TO SLOWLY SPREAD TO               
THE EAST...HOWEVER IT IS MOST LIKELY THEY WILL NOT REACH THE TWIN               
PORTS DUE TO DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE EAST. WE WILL                 
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES AND THE                   
NORTHERN HALF OF SAINT LOUIS COUNTY AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM                     
FORECAST PRECIP IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW                 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA LIFTING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.                
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP                 
AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT WRN AND NRN MINNESOTA WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED              
WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL BE FOCUSED. THIS FRONT ALONG                  
WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST                 
CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR                  
CWA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THERE                 
WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MUCAPE VALUES                   
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500            
J/KG...WHILE 0-3KM SRH VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 100-200                 
J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ISOLATED              
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                                           
THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY                      
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER ACROSS OUR ERN              
ZONES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE               
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRYING                   
TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH                
COOLER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE                    
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA.                                
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  63  49  63  41 /  60  30  70  70                                           
INL  67  50  62  37 /  60  60  70  70                                           
BRD  73  54  65  43 /  60  40  70  50                                           
HYR  74  54  71  44 /  10  10  40  70                                           
ASX  73  53  70  42 /  10  10  40  70                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
430 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY              
DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT                   
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE ARKLAMISS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS               
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT                  
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST MONDAY WHILE RIDGING WEST               
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR SE TO S LOW                
LEVEL FLOW AND SERVE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER              
OUR REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS               
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS                
JUST EAST OF OUR CWA. ALSO NOTED WAS A NEARLY STACKED LOW MOVING                
OVER SW KANSAS. THIS LOW WILL BE DEFLECTED TO THE NE AS THE UPPER               
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TODAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE             
SEEN STREAMING EAST TOWARD OUR DELTA REGION FROM THE CONVECTION                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AS THEY MOVE INTO             
OUR AREA AND WILL DO LITTLE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM PEAKING OUT               
NEAR 80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                
MOVES OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THE TRAILING COLD               
FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA NEAR THE OZARKS.                    
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED IN              
OUR AREA...MODELS CONTINUE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF             
THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE                 
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING A POSSIBLY A FEW                  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE WEST. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE TRIMMED THIS             
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BUT THE UKMET/GFS/NAM/NGM ALL GENERATE SOME LIGHT            
QPF IN OUR WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AND WL NOT IGNORE. BY MONDAY                    
AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE LOW TO            
MID 60S WITH PWS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH RIDGING ALOFT WL                   
ACTUALLY BE STRENGTHENING SOME FROM THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE               
THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS                        
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DAYTIME HEATING WL WEAKEN THE            
EXISTING CAP AND RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW                  
SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR             
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER                
MONDAY HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.            
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE                   
MEMBERS AS WELL. IT WILL STILL BE WARM WITH MOST SITES TOPPING OUT              
AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN. /22/                                                   
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)... FORECAST IS A                
LITTLE TRICKIER FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT UP UNTIL WEDNESDAY             
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. PAST FEW FORECASTS WERE CONFIDENT WITH              
ENTIRELY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD WHILE WE WAIT FOR AN ORGANIZED            
SYSTEM TO BRING THE REGION SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY                   
WEDNESDAY. NOW MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL                
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE ARKLAMISS COULD SPARK               
SOME SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO) TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.              
MAV/MEX POPS STILL CUT SOME FOR THESE PERIODS OWING TO PROBABLE                 
THERMAL CAPPING ISSUES...BUT A LITTLE PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT                
BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST MS...SOUTHEAST AR AND                     
NORTHEAST LA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT             
TO BE FRAUGHT WITH BOUTS OF NIGHT TIME LOWER CLOUDS AND DAYTIME                 
CUMULUS...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH               
WARMER WITH LOWS PRIMARILY RANGING FROM 60 TO 65 WITH HIGHS 80 TO               
85. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK DECENT IN THAT REGARD.                              
BY WEDNESDAY A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HEAD                  
TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT            
MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT                    
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALTHOUGH               
THE "QUALITY" OF MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. SHOULD STILL            
BE ENOUGH JUICE AROUND TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS (MOST CONCENTRATED WEST) BY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERIC              
FORCING INCREASES. PROGGED VALUES OF WIND SHEAR MEET THRESHOLDS FOR             
ORGANIZING STORMS INTO SEVERE MODES...BUT THE POSITIONING OF THE                
SURFACE LOW WILL NOT BE OPTIMUM FOR THE GENERATION OF SEVERE                    
WEATHER. TAME LAPSE RATES WILL EQUATE TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST             
(1000 TO 1500 JOULES) AND SHEAR COULD BE A LITTLE MUCH FOR                      
STRUGGLING UPDRAFTS TO "KEEP UP WITH". THESE "CONS" FOR WIDESPREAD              
SEVERE WEATHER ARE ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP THE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW...BUT            
THERE STILL ARE SOME POSSIBILITIES OF INTENSE CONVECTION BEING                  
AROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE                    
AREA...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS. AS FOR POPS...GUIDANCE CAME            
IN WITH MAINLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
AND I FOUND ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO INCREASE 10 TO 15 POINTS IN NORTHWEST            
ZONES WEDNESDAY AND 10 POINTS NEARLY AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                  
EXPECT HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (WHICH IS                  
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE) WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER             
60S...WHICH IS AGAIN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.                                      
ANNOYING MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST             
GFS RUN HAS TRENDED COMPLETELY TO THE PREVIOUS EURO IDEA OF A STRONG            
FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE THE EURO MODEL HAS               
BACKED OFF FROM THIS IDEA SOME. THE TREND OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS             
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE ERRATIC GFS...SO I HEDGED OUR FORECAST            
TOWARD THE FORMER MODEL. THAT HEDGING BASICALLY ENTAILS GOING WARMER            
THAN MEX GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE THE FRONT WILL            
LIKELY HANG UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA. EXPECT LOWS TO               
DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN FOR MOST LOCALES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT               
THEN TREND SLOWLY BACK UPWARDS THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT                    
MEANDERS BACK NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 70S NORTHERN                
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S                 
THEREAFTER.                                                                     
MODELS ARE REALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO                            
ANOTHER...WEAKER...DISTURBANCE THAT MAY SLOWLY HEAD IN OUR DIRECTION            
NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL            
BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND EVEN GFS GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN             
SOME WITH THIS RUN IN TERMS OF POPS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT            
OF NEXT WEEKEND`S FORECAST FOR NOW. /BB/                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS 3-5SM                
WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH 14Z THIS                  
MORNING. WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT             
IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS TO 15-20KTS ARE                  
EXPECTED IN THE DELTA TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL                
AFTER 15Z ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE SW TONIGHT REACHING MOST OF THE WESTERN            
HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW                
500FT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT MEI AND GTR WHERE CEILINGS AROUND 1KFT            
CAN BE EXPECTED. /22/                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       81  60  79  63 /   0   5   7   6                                  
MERIDIAN      80  57  80  60 /   0   5   6   6                                  
VICKSBURG     81  62  79  63 /   0   7  15   8                                  
HATTIESBURG   80  59  81  63 /   0   4   8   4                                  
NATCHEZ       80  62  79  65 /   0   5  15   7                                  
GREENVILLE    81  62  79  65 /   0  12  15  12                                  
GREENWOOD     80  61  79  64 /   0   8  15  12                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM:22                                                                   
LONG TERM: 50                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
430 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THIS                
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT DOMINATE OVER OUR REGION.                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIRLY                    
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW SPINNING               
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A RATHER LARGE RIDGE OVER THE MS                   
VALLEY. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR CWA               
THIS WEEKEND AND DEFLECT THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE                
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE                   
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER             
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY              
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING             
FROM EASTERLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS A                  
RESULT. PLENTY OF INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD                
COVER. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND                 
SUNDAY FROM THE CONVECTION GENERATED TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT US FROM REACHING AFTERNOON            
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES            
WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. WITH                 
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...SUNDAY MORNING             
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 50S AT             
MOST SITES. /22/                                                                
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)... GENERALLY                  
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
TUESDAY PERIODS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT                  
INFLUENCE OVER THE ARKLAMISS. A DISTURBANCE PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH            
OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS               
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST OF MY BORDERS...AND THEN DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY            
SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH             
EARLY MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP TO GET INTO THE REGION                
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN WESTERN ZONES WILL             
BRING A LITTLE MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...ALL            
THOSE LOOKING FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT A FEW MORE DAYS FOR A MORE             
PROMISING DISTURBANCE SET TO SWING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH               
THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS              
SYSTEM...TRYING TO DAMPEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES OUR                    
LONGITUDE. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL RUN KEEPS THE                  
SYSTEM MORE ROBUST THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI            
VALLEYS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION A               
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW I`M LEANING ON THE                
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SINCE THAT MODEL HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE            
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAS GENERALLY HAD MORE SKILL IN THE                 
LONG-RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST LATELY. THOSE LOOKING TO AVOID               
DROUGHT SHOULD WISH FOR A GOOD SOAKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND                     
HOPEFULLY WE CAN AVOID SEVERE WEATHER. I AM STILL GOING TO LEAVE THE            
HWO CLEAR WITH REGARDS TO THE THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PRESENT TIME                  
CONSIDERING QUESTION MARKS RELATING TO MOISTURE RETURN (AND                     
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY) AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. THOSE                   
UNCERTAINTIES SHOULD BE RESOLVED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                          
MODELS (SPECIFICALLY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN)              
DEVIATE EVEN MORE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE GFS               
SUGGESTS ANOTHER RATHER STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MARCH ACROSS THE                
REGION AROUND SATURDAY...ACTIVATING THE BAROCLINIC ZONES LEFT IN THE            
WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY`S SYSTEM. THE END RESULT WOULD BE ANOTHER            
GOOD SHOT AT RAIN FOLLOWED BY A COOL SHOT. AT THE OTHER END OF THE              
SPECTRUM...THE EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT PHASE THIS DISTURBANCE LIKE              
THE GFS...INSTEAD LEAVING IT ABANDONED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION.             
THAT SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE US WARM AND GENERALLY DRY THROUGH NEXT                
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL COULD NOT BE RULED              
OUT GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A MEANDERING BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.             
BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS THE            
PAST FEW DAYS AND VARIOUS OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HELPING            
TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES MUCH. STILL HAVE TO HEDGE TOWARD THE EURO                
RIGHT NOW THOUGH...MAINLY BECAUSE ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE IN THE LONG            
RANGE HAS BEEN SUPERIOR.                                                        
SO...AFTER A COOLER THAN AVERAGE APRIL THUS FAR WE CAN ANTICIPATE               
TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST             
OF THE MONTH. THAT EQUATES TO LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO                
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS RANGING MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES. THAT                 
SAID...THE EURO MODEL DOES SUGGEST A BIT OF COOLING BEHIND THE                  
COMING FRONT NEXT THURSDAY...BUT ANY SUB-80 DEGREE WEATHER WILL                 
PROBABLY NOT LAST TOO LONG. GIVEN MY MENTIONED DISAGREEMENTS WITH               
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT I DEVIATED                
FROM GFS POP AND TEMP GUIDANCE A BIT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FOR                 
TEMPS...I GENERALLY WENT 1 TO 2 DEGREE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR                 
HIGHS (ESPECIALLY EAST) MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR LOW TEMPS I               
CUT GUIDANCE A TOUCH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS DUE TO DRY AIR IN                 
PLACE...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE I FEEL A                 
LITTLE COOL AIR MAY WORK SOUTH INTO THE ARKLAMISS IN THE WAKE OF THE            
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS FOR POPS...GFS GUIDANCE GENERATES SOME SPURIOUS             
LOOKING POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY MINOR                 
IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING LARGER DISTURBANCE. FEELING            
IS THAT GENERALLY STABLE AND CAPPED AIRMASS IN OUR AREA WILL NOT                
SUPPORT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FORCING. DID LEAVE SOME SLIGHT             
POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT SINCE MOISTURE COULD GET                  
SOMEWHAT DEEPER BY THAT TIME THERE. WENT WITH GFS POPS FOR                      
WEDNESDAY...BUT UPPED THEM SOME 10 TO 15 POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN             
MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE. PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT I             
TRIMMED BACK POPS SOME THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE            
HEDGING TOWARD THE EURO MODEL THAT I MENTIONED ABOVE. /BB/                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WAS BEING            
REPORTED AT KTVR THIS MORNING...BUT ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR                 
CONDITIONS AROUND 12Z IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL                
RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z AND PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUN. SOME SPOTTY MVFR            
CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE 10-13Z               
SUNDAY. /22/                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       80  53  80  57 /   0   0   0   2                                  
MERIDIAN      78  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     81  53  82  59 /   0   0   0   6                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  53  81  54 /   0   0   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       79  55  79  59 /   0   0   0   3                                  
GREENVILLE    80  55  80  60 /   0   0   0   9                                  
GREENWOOD     80  54  80  57 /   0   0   0   8                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM:22                                                                   
LONG TERM: 50                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
315 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRONG SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HANDFUL               
OF AWOS/ASOS STATIONS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AS OF PUBLISHING                
TIME BUT EXPECT MORE SITES TO REACH CRITERIA LATE THIS                          
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPIRATION TIME ON WIND ADVISORY AT               
7 PM MAY BE A FEW HOURS TOO EARLY...HOWEVER WILL JUST KEEP IT AS                
IS AND IF OBS ARE EXCEEDING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...NEXT SHIFT CAN              
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE HEADLINE.                                              
FOCUS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE COLD CORE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER             
FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT WILL MOVE NEWD OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE OVER                
THE TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON. LATEST SUBJECTIVE SFC               
ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTERED OVR SERN CO WITH STRONG              
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY                    
EXTENDING NEWD FM THE SFC LOW THRU FAR SWRN NEB AND INTO NCTNRL NEB             
AND CNTRL SD. MID TO UPPER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS COVER MUCH OF THE                  
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AS FAR EAST AS WRN IA. CONVECTION              
IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG DRY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY                    
EVENING AND ALSO ALONG THE NEWD EXTENDING BOUNDARY...ONCE STRONG                
CAP EVIDENT ON LBF 18Z SOUNDING WEAKENS. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES                 
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT TO KEEP                      
CONVECTION ONGOING AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EWD. QUESTION REMAINS AT HOW              
FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL REACH IF IT INDEED BOWS OUT AS FORECAST. SREF      
SPAGHETTI PLOTS AND 4KM NMM WRF SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING                    
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SPREADS INTO ERN NEB LATE TONIGHT. NOT                      
EXPECTING ANY SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY SOME REMNANT                     
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PASSING ON THROUGH.                                  
BY 12Z SUN...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG            
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN SECTIONS OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY VERTICALLY STACKED       
AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NWRN KS WITH 500MB COLD CORE LOW LAGGING                
SLIGHTLY BEHIND. 12Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONCEPTUAL              
MODEL AND HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO IT. SEVERE WEATHER                      
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FROM BASICALLY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THRU THE                  
AFTERNOON HOURS AS MUCAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE                 
MORNING HOURS...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND       
BULK SHEER VALUES FORECAST AROUND 40-50KTS. ALSO...WITH -20C                    
500MB LOW CORE SLIDING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY AFTERNOON...CANNOT               
RULE OUT MINI SUPERCELL EVENT FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON              
HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS               
SYSTEM MOVES INTO NRN IA BY 03Z.                                                
MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SHORTWAVE                       
RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE AREA. UPSTREAM...LEE             
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS CO AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS               
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PUSHES A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS KANSAS              
AND INTO SRN NEB LATE IN THE EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A                
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP FEED ELEVATED CONVECTION                
ACROSS KANSAS AND SPREAD IT NWD AS 850MB FRONT SLIDES NWD INTO NEB              
OVERNIGHT. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WL MOVE INTO WRN KS LATE MONDAY               
NIGHT AND ACROSS KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY LEAVING 850MB                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BISECT THE AREA THRU TUESDAY. SFC FNT ALSO                  
NUDGES INTO FAR SERN CORNER OF NEB ON TUESDAY. EXPECT CONVECTION                
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE               
LOW AND SO HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO JUST RAIN SHOWERS AS REGION                
LIES IN DEFORMATION AREA. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.                
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES COMING TO A CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE            
A MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY LATE NEXT FRIDAY OR                   
SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE POP IN FOR THIS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-          
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090.                               
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS                                                                         
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
322 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION LIFTING NWD ACROSS NORTHERN                      
NEBRASKA HAD WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS NWRN CWA EARLY THIS                    
MORNING WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE N OF THE CWA BY 12Z. THUS              
WILL RUN A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING ACTIVITY               
AT 07Z WAS 60 KTS PLUS ON AVAILABLE NEBRASKA PROFILERS...ALTHOUGH               
WINDS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN                
BY THIS EVENING. SINCE 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT                    
STRONGER THAN YDA...WHICH SAW A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVSRY                 
CRITERIA...STRONG MIXING AGAIN TODAY SHOULD BRING EVEN STRONGER                 
WINDS. THUS...ISSUED A WIND ADVSRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL BUT FAR               
SERN ZONES WHERE WINDS WERE JUST A BIT LIGHTER TILL 00Z. WITH LOW               
LVL JET CRANKING UP AGAIN TNGT...ADVSRY MAY NEED EXTENDING A BIT                
INTO THE EVENING IF SFC DOESN/T COOL ENOUGH PROVIDING A WEAK                    
INVERSION. ALSO RAISED MOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MILD START               
AND BASED HOW WARM IT GOT YDA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO AGAIN FIRE                  
THIS AFTN NEAR DRY-LINE WRN NEBRASKA WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO                  
SHIFT FARTHER EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUS SPREAD LIKELYS OVER                  
WRN 2/3RDS IN 06Z-12Z PD. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED OR MIXED LAYER                 
CAPE MODEST/WEAK BY 12Z SUN...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG AND                  
UPPER DYNAMICS DECENT AS UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS WRN KS               
BY THEN. THUS SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY               
MORNING WRN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER EAST SUNDAY MORNING.                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW STARTING TO TURN EWD NEAR                  
NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS OF 08Z...PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER THAN 00Z GFS               
BASED ON LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION. HOW FAST UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT                
STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH UKMET/ECMWF AND CANADIAN A BIT                  
SLOWER THAN AMERICAN MODELS. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD A                     
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH COULD ALLOW READINGS SUNDAY TO                 
REACH OR EXCEED 70 AS FAR NW A LNK TO OMA LINE WITH STRONG TO                   
SEVERE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING...IF IT EVEN SUBSIDES...IN THE AFTN              
NEAR AND EAST OF THE MO RIVER. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EWD                 
THOUGH BY EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN THROUGH MON AFTN.              
DID INCREASE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS                 
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH NEXT UPPER LOW LIFTING A WARM                
FRONT TOWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN ZONES. NOTICED 00Z ECMWF AND                 
GFS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND IF                
THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE...POPS MAY NEED LOWERING/DROPPED IN WED               
NGT/THU PD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. MADE LITTLE/NO TEMP CHANGES TO                  
MONDAY AND BEYOND.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-                
     088>090.                                                                   
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHERMOK                                                                         
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
232 PM MDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE PRETTY MUCH GOING AS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE             
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CORE            
ENTERING CWFA. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE                     
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTICALLY AND            
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. LOOK FOR A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN                 
TOWARDS SUNSET ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RESIDUAL              
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS FAR                     
NORTHEAST PLAINS DEPENDING ON DRY LINE ACTION. WILL HOLD SERVE ON               
THE WIND ADVISORY AND LET IT GO THROUGH 8 PM. SIERRA BLANCA AND AN              
OBSERVER HAS ALREADY VERIFIED THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN LINCOLN                  
COUNTY HOWEVER WINDS HAVE ABATED SOMEWHAT THERE. SUSPECT ANOTHER                
BURST WITH THE BL/700MB WIND FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WILL LET THAT                   
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WILL BE LIMITED. A COUPLE OF OTHER OBSERVATION                
SITES TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO HIT HIGH WIND              
WITH THE FROPA BUT NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE. CONVECTIVE SHOWER                    
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MUDDLE UP ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING                  
SPEEDS. PRETTY MUCH CONTINUED WITH INHERITED POP PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT            
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DYING DOWN BETWEEN 6 TO 8 PM. ALL ACTIVITY            
DISSIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LESS CONFIDENCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER            
THE DEPARTING LOW ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT.                 
EVENING SHIFT CAN RELOOK AT THAT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH                        
PRECIPITATION ENDS UP FALLING. LASTLY...SEVERE WEATHER MOST PROBABLE            
ACROSS UNION COUNTY AS DRY LINE MIXES EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT THE             
NAM/RUC HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE MSLP SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS               
BUT THREAT WILL BE QUICK TO END EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY             
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW TRUCKS NORTHEASTWARD. WATCH WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST.                               
SUNDAY WILL BE AN IN BETWEEN DAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES               
THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR HIGHER                 
CLOUDS TO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST AREAS             
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS BOTH PERIODS                      
ACCORDINGLY. ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WHERE TEMPS WILL BE                      
ARTIFICIALLY HIGH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.                
BOTH NAM AND GFS PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND SYSTEM                
TRACK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUMPED UP WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY. DIDNT REALLY ADJUST THE POP OR WX FIELD            
ALL THAT MUCH AS INHERITED PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD. CERTAINLY SOME DRY              
SLOT CONSIDERATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES A                
PROBLEM FOR HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS BOTH DAYS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  30  69  44  60 /   0   0   5  30              
GALLUP..........................  23  66  38  59 /   0   0   0  30              
GRANTS..........................  25  68  36  63 /   0   0   0  20              
GLENWOOD........................  37  78  45  73 /   0   0   0   5              
CHAMA...........................  16  56  33  50 /  20   0   5  30              
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  67  34  63 /   0   0   0  20              
RED RIVER.......................  22  52  34  49 /  20   0   0  20              
TAOS............................  23  65  35  62 /  10   0   0  20              
SANTA FE........................  26  68  35  65 /   5   0   0  10              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  32  70  41  67 /   0   0   0  10              
ESPANOLA........................  32  73  43  70 /   0   0   0  20              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  39  73  50  72 /   5   0   0  10              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  40  75  50  73 /   5   0   0  10              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  36  72  47  70 /   5   0   0  10              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  39  74  49  71 /   5   0   0  10              
SOCORRO.........................  41  76  51  76 /   0   0   0  10              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  32  68  44  68 /   5   0   0  10              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  34  69  48  69 /   0   0   0  10              
CARRIZOZO.......................  38  71  53  73 /   0   0   0   5              
RUIDOSO.........................  39  63  50  63 /   0   0   0   5              
RATON...........................  30  71  37  70 /  10   0   0  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  33  69  41  66 /   0   0   0   5              
ROY.............................  39  72  50  72 /   5   0   0   5              
CLAYTON.........................  40  74  47  77 /  20   0   0   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  43  77  52  79 /   5   0   0   5              
TUCUMCARI.......................  42  78  49  82 /  10   0   0   5              
FORT SUMNER.....................  43  79  49  82 /   5   0   0   5              
CLOVIS..........................  43  78  53  80 /   5   0   0   5              
PORTALES........................  41  79  52  82 /   5   0   0   5              
ROSWELL.........................  44  81  53  84 /   5   0   0   5              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...            
NMZ004>007-009>013-015-018>021-026.                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
ZONES...NMZ016-017.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
935 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPSTATE              
SC AND WESTERN NC. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE MID 50S TO                 
LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S. THE 12Z GSO                  
SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF 0.33 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS OF               
25-30F AS LOW AS 925-950 MB.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS IN             
THE LOWER 80S AS H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC              
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD AND TO THE S/SE BY EVENING.               
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND            
WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE              
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BETWEEN 15-17Z OR SO...FEEL CONFIDENT IN                   
SHOWING A SIMILAR TREND THIS AFTERNOON OF DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE            
LOWER 30S. THIS WILL YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20% DURING THE              
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 7-12 MPH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT               
WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM BEING ATTAINED               
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...VERY DRY RH VALUES COMBINED WITH MIXING              
HEIGHTS OF UP TO 8000 FT WILL LIKELY CREATE ADVERSE CONDITIONS                  
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING. -VINCENT                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 640 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
BASED ON TRENDS EVIDENT IN THE NEW 06Z NAM/GFS OF A STOUT AND                   
GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZE MONDAY SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND                 
GUSTING TO AT LEAST 30 MPH... HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT                   
PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THESE STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW. SEE FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS BELOW. -GIH                                                    
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY                   
COOLER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 800MB AND 500MB CENTRAL AND EAST THIS               
AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH DIURNAL MIXING COULD RESULT IN A FEW CU IF               
THE SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.             
THE GFS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE HIGH ON ITS SURFACE DEW                 
POINT AND IF DEW POINTS ARE MUCH LOWER THERE WOULD BE COMPLETE BLUE             
AGAIN TODAY.  FEW CU AT MOST WITH SURFACE WINDS 10KT OR LESS...                 
VEERING TO THE WEST EARLY TODAY AND RETURNING TO SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST             
LATE...CONTINUING THIS EVENING. -DJF                                            
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
BASED ON THESE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... THE              
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE REGION FOR NEAR-CRITICAL              
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. RH IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AT              
30-35% MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR FIRE WEATHER                
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IF RH                  
FORECASTS BEGIN TO TREND LOWER.                                                 
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR TODAY`S FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. -GIH                      
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 325 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                     
TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED QUIET... GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE... DRY AND               
WARM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL                  
RIDGING OVERHEAD. APART FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN              
THE 80-84 RANGE TODAY... OF NOTE WILL BE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES WITH EXPECTATIONS OF DEWPOINTS DROPPING WELL DOWN THROUGH THE            
30S THIS AFTERNOON... AND POSSIBLE LOWER. SEE FIRE WEATHER                      
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 46-51...              
BUT OUTLYING RURAL AREAS MAY SEE COOLER READINGS.                               
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY                    
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON... INTRODUCING                   
STEADIER SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES AND                  
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS MORNING`S MID LEVEL TROUGH AND                   
SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS             
TROUGH HELPS TAMP DOWN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO              
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... A BIT MORE PROFOUND ON THE NAM THAN THE GFS.            
AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE TO OUR WSW NOSES TOWARD WESTERN NC... AND               
MODELS SHOW A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ZIPPING ACROSS VA MONDAY                   
NIGHT... HOWEVER THE WESTERLY-SHIFTING 850 MB WINDS SHOULD LIMIT                
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE LIFT IS TO OUR                   
NORTH... SO WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT INCREASING            
CLOUDS NW TO SE. HIGHS 80-84 MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY LOWS 53-56. THEN             
ON TUESDAY... THE FRONT BECOMES W-E ORIENTED TO OUR NORTH WITH                  
MODELS DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE IN THE               
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH... ABOUT 150% OF              
NORMAL... AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RISING OVER 500 J/KG            
FAVORS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING            
DESPITE A WARM POCKET IN THE MID LEVELS. HIGHS 80-83... WITH LOWS               
TUESDAY NIGHT 55-60 UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH                   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR              
EVENING STORM ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW THAT             
THE GFS/ECMWF ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN VA LATE IN THE DAY AND THE TAIL               
END OF ITS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DRAGS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.               
HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS TROUGH... ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. THIS WAVE               
DAMPENS AS IT HEADS UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE                     
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NC             
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND REALLY LOSES DEFINITION THROUGH                     
FRIDAY... SO MUCH THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES... WHICH REMAIN ABOVE              
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD... SHOW NO RESPONSE THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE            
SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT WANES CONSIDERABLY... SO QPF MAY BE SORELY               
LIMITED IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS... BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY THEREAFTER WITH THE              
CONSISTENT GFS SHOWING A DRY COLUMN AND STABILIZING MID LEVELS                  
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND IN THE UPPER               
70S TO AROUND 80 THURSDAY-SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.             
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EACH MORNING. -GIH                      
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY...RAPID EVENING COOLING OVER               
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AT            
THE TIME...RESULTED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-TO-IFR FOG AT KFAY AND            
KRWI.  EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD IS                 
HIGHER...AND IN A FEW LOCATIONS THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO            
RESULT IN A LIGHT...BUT OBSERVED...WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AROUND             
06Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ROSE AT KRWI.  DEW POINTS ARE               
HIGHEST TOWARD THE EAST AND HAVE PROVIDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                 
MVFR...LIGHT FOG AT KRWI...BUT ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS.             
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN                
800MB AND 500MB CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH DIURNAL            
MIXING COULD RESULT IN A FEW CU IF THE SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI             
VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.  THE GFS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A            
LITTLE HIGH ON ITS SURFACE DEW POINT AND IF DEW POINTS ARE MUCH                 
LOWER THERE WOULD BE COMPLETE BLUE AGAIN TODAY.  FEW CU AT MOST WITH            
SURFACE WINDS 10KT OR LESS...VEERING TO THE WEST EARLY AND RETURNING            
TO SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST LATE. -DJF                                                
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY REVEALED FIRES BURNING IN              
HARNETT... CUMBERLAND... AND HOKE COUNTIES... AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES PLUMMETED TO 16-20% DURING THE AFTERNOON... MUCH LOWER THAN              
MOS GUIDANCE VALUES INDICATED. WHILE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE MAY               
KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM CRASHING QUITE AS MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY                
WHEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE... WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR               
MASS... ANOTHER STEEP DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED              
TODAY. FORECAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS                    
GUIDANCE VALUES... CLOSE TO THE NUMBERS ONE GETS WHEN THE LOWEST 100            
MB ON THE MORNING RUC SOUNDING IS MIXED. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY SHOULD             
BE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID RECOVERY INTO THE              
30-40% RANGE TOWARD SUNSET. WHILE WIND WILL NOT BE A MAJOR FIRE                 
CONCERN WITH W TO SW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND FAIRLY             
LIGHT ALOFT... GIVEN THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS THAT ARE DOWN TO             
ABOUT 3-5%... THESE DRY RH VALUES WILL NOT HELP THIS SITUATION.                 
EXPECT MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY UP TO 8000 FT. -GIH/DJF                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
640 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
BASED ON TRENDS EVIDENT IN THE NEW 06Z NAM/GFS OF A STOUT AND                   
GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZE MONDAY SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND                 
GUSTING TO AT LEAST 30 MPH... HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT                   
PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THESE STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW. SEE FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS BELOW. -GIH                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY                   
COOLER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 800MB AND 500MB CENTRAL AND EAST THIS               
AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH DIURNAL MIXING COULD RESULT IN A FEW CU IF               
THE SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.             
THE GFS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE HIGH ON ITS SURFACE DEW                 
POINT AND IF DEW POINTS ARE MUCH LOWER THERE WOULD BE COMPLETE BLUE             
AGAIN TODAY.  FEW CU AT MOST WITH SURFACE WINDS 10KT OR LESS...                 
VEERING TO THE WEST EARLY TODAY AND RETURNING TO SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST             
LATE...CONTINUING THIS EVENING. -DJF                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
BASED ON THESE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... THE              
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE REGION FOR NEAR-CRITICAL              
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. RH IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AT              
30-35% MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR FIRE WEATHER                
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IF RH                  
FORECASTS BEGIN TO TREND LOWER.                                                 
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR TODAY`S FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. -GIH                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 325 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                     
TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED QUIET... GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE... DRY AND               
WARM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL                  
RIDGING OVERHEAD. APART FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN              
THE 80-84 RANGE TODAY... OF NOTE WILL BE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES WITH EXPECTATIONS OF DEWPOINTS DROPPING WELL DOWN THROUGH THE            
30S THIS AFTERNOON... AND POSSIBLE LOWER. SEE FIRE WEATHER                      
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 46-51...              
BUT OUTLYING RURAL AREAS MAY SEE COOLER READINGS.                               
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY                    
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON... INTRODUCING                   
STEADIER SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES AND                  
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS MORNING`S MID LEVEL TROUGH AND                   
SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS             
TROUGH HELPS TAMP DOWN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO              
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... A BIT MORE PROFOUND ON THE NAM THAN THE GFS.            
AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE TO OUR WSW NOSES TOWARD WESTERN NC... AND               
MODELS SHOW A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ZIPPING ACROSS VA MONDAY                   
NIGHT... HOWEVER THE WESTERLY-SHIFTING 850 MB WINDS SHOULD LIMIT                
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE LIFT IS TO OUR                   
NORTH... SO WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT INCREASING            
CLOUDS NW TO SE. HIGHS 80-84 MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY LOWS 53-56. THEN             
ON TUESDAY... THE FRONT BECOMES W-E ORIENTED TO OUR NORTH WITH                  
MODELS DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE IN THE               
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH... ABOUT 150% OF              
NORMAL... AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RISING OVER 500 J/KG            
FAVORS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING            
DESPITE A WARM POCKET IN THE MID LEVELS. HIGHS 80-83... WITH LOWS               
TUESDAY NIGHT 55-60 UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH                   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR              
EVENING STORM ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW THAT             
THE GFS/ECMWF ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN VA LATE IN THE DAY AND THE TAIL               
END OF ITS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DRAGS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.               
HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS TROUGH... ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. THIS WAVE               
DAMPENS AS IT HEADS UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE                     
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NC             
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND REALLY LOSES DEFINITION THROUGH                     
FRIDAY... SO MUCH THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES... WHICH REMAIN ABOVE              
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD... SHOW NO RESPONSE THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE            
SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT WANES CONSIDERABLY... SO QPF MAY BE SORELY               
LIMITED IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS... BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY THEREAFTER WITH THE              
CONSISTENT GFS SHOWING A DRY COLUMN AND STABILIZING MID LEVELS                  
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND IN THE UPPER               
70S TO AROUND 80 THURSDAY-SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.             
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EACH MORNING. -GIH                      
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY...RAPID EVENING COOLING OVER               
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AT            
THE TIME...RESULTED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-TO-IFR FOG AT KFAY AND            
KRWI.  EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD IS                 
HIGHER...AND IN A FEW LOCATIONS THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO            
RESULT IN A LIGHT...BUT OBSERVED...WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AROUND             
06Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ROSE AT KRWI.  DEW POINTS ARE               
HIGHEST TOWARD THE EAST AND HAVE PROVIDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                 
MVFR...LIGHT FOG AT KRWI...BUT ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS.             
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN                
800MB AND 500MB CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH DIURNAL            
MIXING COULD RESULT IN A FEW CU IF THE SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI             
VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.  THE GFS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A            
LITTLE HIGH ON ITS SURFACE DEW POINT AND IF DEW POINTS ARE MUCH                 
LOWER THERE WOULD BE COMPLETE BLUE AGAIN TODAY.  FEW CU AT MOST WITH            
SURFACE WINDS 10KT OR LESS...VEERING TO THE WEST EARLY AND RETURNING            
TO SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST LATE. -DJF                                                
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY REVEALED FIRES BURNING IN              
HARNETT... CUMBERLAND... AND HOKE COUNTIES... AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES PLUMMETED TO 16-20% DURING THE AFTERNOON... MUCH LOWER THAN              
MOS GUIDANCE VALUES INDICATED. WHILE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE MAY               
KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM CRASHING QUITE AS MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY                
WHEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE... WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR               
MASS... ANOTHER STEEP DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED              
TODAY. FORECAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS                    
GUIDANCE VALUES... CLOSE TO THE NUMBERS ONE GETS WHEN THE LOWEST 100            
MB ON THE MORNING RUC SOUNDING IS MIXED. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY SHOULD             
BE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID RECOVERY INTO THE              
30-40% RANGE TOWARD SUNSET. WHILE WIND WILL NOT BE A MAJOR FIRE                 
CONCERN WITH W TO SW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND FAIRLY             
LIGHT ALOFT... GIVEN THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS THAT ARE DOWN TO             
ABOUT 3-5%... THESE DRY RH VALUES WILL NOT HELP THIS SITUATION.                 
EXPECT MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY UP TO 8000 FT. -GIH/DJF                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD                                                        
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
325 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED QUIET... GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE... DRY AND               
WARM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL                  
RIDGING OVERHEAD. APART FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN              
THE 80-84 RANGE TODAY... OF NOTE WILL BE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES WITH EXPECTATIONS OF DEWPOINTS DROPPING WELL DOWN THROUGH THE            
30S THIS AFTERNOON... AND POSSIBLE LOWER. SEE FIRE WEATHER                      
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 46-51...              
BUT OUTLYING RURAL AREAS MAY SEE COOLER READINGS.                               
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY                    
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON... INTRODUCING                   
STEADIER SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES AND                  
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS MORNING`S MID LEVEL TROUGH AND                   
SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS             
TROUGH HELPS TAMP DOWN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO              
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... A BIT MORE PROFOUND ON THE NAM THAN THE GFS.            
AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE TO OUR WSW NOSES TOWARD WESTERN NC... AND               
MODELS SHOW A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ZIPPING ACROSS VA MONDAY                   
NIGHT... HOWEVER THE WESTERLY-SHIFTING 850 MB WINDS SHOULD LIMIT                
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE LIFT IS TO OUR                   
NORTH... SO WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT INCREASING            
CLOUDS NW TO SE. HIGHS 80-84 MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY LOWS 53-56. THEN             
ON TUESDAY... THE FRONT BECOMES W-E ORIENTED TO OUR NORTH WITH                  
MODELS DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE IN THE               
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH... ABOUT 150% OF              
NORMAL... AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RISING OVER 500 J/KG            
FAVORS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING            
DESPITE A WARM POCKET IN THE MID LEVELS. HIGHS 80-83... WITH LOWS               
TUESDAY NIGHT 55-60 UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR              
EVENING STORM ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW THAT             
THE GFS/ECMWF ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN VA LATE IN THE DAY AND THE TAIL               
END OF ITS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DRAGS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.               
HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS TROUGH... ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. THIS WAVE               
DAMPENS AS IT HEADS UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE                     
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NC             
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND REALLY LOSES DEFINITION THROUGH                     
FRIDAY... SO MUCH THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESS... WHICH REMAIN ABOVE                
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD... SHOW NO RESPONSE THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE            
SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT WANES CONSIDERABLY... SO QPF MAY BE SORELY               
LIMITED IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS... BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY THEREAFTER WITH THE              
CONSISTENT GFS SHOWING A DRY COLUMN AND STABILIZING MID LEVELS                  
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND IN THE UPPER               
70S TO AROUND 80 THURSDAY-SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.             
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EACH MORNING. -GIH                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                          
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY...RAPID EVENING COOLING OVER               
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AT            
THE TIME...RESULTED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-TO-IFR FOG AT KFAY AND            
KRWI.  EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD IS                 
HIGHER...AND IN A FEW LOCATIONS THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO            
RESULT IN A LIGHT...BUT OBSERVED...WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AROUND             
06Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ROSE AT KRWI.  DEW POINTS ARE               
HIGHEST TOWARD THE EAST AND HAVE PROVIDED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                 
MVFR...LIGHT FOG AT KRWI...BUT ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS.             
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN                
800MB AND 500MB CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH DIURNAL            
MIXING COULD RESULT IN A FEW CU IF THE SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU AND KRWI             
VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.  THE GFS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A            
LITTLE HIGH ON ITS SURFACE DEW POINT AND IF DEW POINTS ARE MUCH                 
LOWER THERE WOULD BE COMPLETE BLUE AGAIN TODAY.  FEW CU AT MOST WITH            
SURFACE WINDS 10KT OR LESS...VEERING TO THE WEST EARLY AND RETURNING            
TO SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST LATE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY REVEALED FIRES BURNING IN              
HARNETT... CUMBERLAND... AND HOKE COUNTIES... AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY              
VALUES PLUMMETED TO 16-20% DURING THE AFTERNOON... MUCH LOWER THAN              
MOS GUIDANCE VALUES INDICATED. WHILE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE MAY               
KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM CRASHING QUITE AS MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY                
WHEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE... WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR               
MASS... ANOTHER STEEP DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED              
TODAY. FORECAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS                    
GUIDANCE VALUES... CLOSE TO THE NUMBERS ONE GETS WHEN THE LOWEST 100            
MB ON THE MORNING RUC SOUNDING IS MIXED. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY SHOULD             
BE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID RECOVERY INTO THE              
30-40% RANGE TOWARD SUNSET. WHILE WIND WILL NOT BE A MAJOR FIRE                 
CONCERN WITH W TO SW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND FAIRLY             
LIGHT ALOFT... GIVEN THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS THAT ARE DOWN TO             
ABOUT 3-5%... THESE DRY RH VALUES WILL NOT HELP THIS SITUATION.                 
EXPECT MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY UP TO 8000 FT. -GIH/DJF                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
253 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
18Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN                               
NE. SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM OVER                  
LAKE SUPERIOR...THROUGH SE MINNESOTA...AND INTO ERN NE... WITH                  
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON MN SIDE OF CWA.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (SUN NIGHT-WED)                                                     
FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT ON PRECIPITATION ENDING IN ERN HALF OF                   
CWA. 12Z NAM SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING OUT                 
OF SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WHILE RUC80                 
HOLDING ON UNTIL THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME. TENDING TOWARDS RUC                 
SOLUTION AND KEEPING PRECIP IN UNTIL 06Z...WITH GENERALLY AROUND                
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH QPF...HOWEVER EXTREME SE CORNER COULD SEE AROUND           
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.                                          
NEXT FOCUS ON A WEAK WAVE CLIPPING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE                  
CWA ON TUESDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH WEAK...MID               
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA TUE                     
MORNING...AND WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA ON                
TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO BRING WEAK QPFS INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH                
DAKOTA...HOWEVER A SFC RIDGE IS PRGOGGED TO EXTEND DOWN FROM NRN                
MANITOBA ...AND NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS DRY.                
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY LAYER BELOW 6000 FEET. EXPECT                    
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE VIRGA SHOWERS AT MOST AT THIS TIME.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TOWARDS WEAK            
ZONAL. MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL ON A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH ON             
THU WITH LIGHT HIT AND MISS PRECIP...OTHERWISE DRY AT LEAST TIL LATE            
SAT. LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY IS A BIGGER QUESTION AS 12Z GFS AND ECMWF             
DISAGREE WIDELY OVER AMPLIFYING ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH...AGAIN INTO              
MB AND LOW POPS ARE APPLICABLE FARTHER SOUTH. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE            
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THIS WEEK AS FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED              
TO AMPLIFY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MON. HIGH SOIL MOISTURE                         
AT FAR/BJI WILL BE OFF SET BY DRY ADVECTION AND A CONTINUING VERY               
LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. SO NO LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.                      
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPEICHER/GV                                                                     
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
230 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL/FLOOD HEADLINES AND             
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD SO WILL USE BLEND FOR             
FORECAST.                                                                       
CURRENT WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT SE HALF OF             
FA SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SD. RUC AND GFS WEAKEN AND SHIFT LOW LEVEL            
JET FLOW MORE WESTERLY AND WARM ADVECTION ALSO SHIFTS EAST SO DO NOT            
EXPECT ANY WEST/NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF CURRENT PCPN BAND. WILL                  
MONITOR FOR T TRENDS AND LIKELY MAINTAIN HIGH POPS OVER FAR EAST                
DURING AM. WITH THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE UNDER CONVECTION AT             
> 2.5 INCHES...CONVECTION WEAKENING UPSTREAM AND ABOVE TRENDS FEEL              
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL               
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO CANCEL ONGOING WATCH. FOR REMAINDER OF FA COLUMN             
DRIES TODAY REFLECTED BY CLEARING OVER CENTRAL WESTERN ND. THERE IS             
AN AREA OF VFR CIGS OVER SASK HOWEVER TIMING WOULD NOT BRING IT IN              
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET SOLAR                   
SOMEWHAT BUT WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TOWARDS WARMER NAM/NGM                     
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS GFS SHOWING MORE CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED.               
FARTHER EAST MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SO COOLER GUIDANCE ACCEPTED.             
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AS REGION COMES UNDER                       
INCREASINGLY SPLIT MID LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION SHUTS DOWN MONDAY             
HOWEVER WITH COOLER COLUMN AND INTEGRATED RH FIELDS INDICATING SOME             
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO NUMERICAL                       
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AS SOUTHERN                  
STREAM UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER FAR SOUTH              
CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE SOURCE AND WEAK NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL             
TROUGH PASSAGE.                                                                 
NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST LATE IN WORK WEEK AND WILL MAINTAIN POP                   
MENTION FOR THUR NIGHT/FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN WARMING COLUMN SHOULD                 
BRING TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS WITHIN CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM              
FAR SE ND INTO WESTERN MN SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS PCPN BAND                 
SHIFTS EAST. REMAINDER OF FA SHOULD BE VFR TODAY WITH SOME ISOLD                
MORNING BR ON BACK EDGE OF CURRENT PCPN SHIELD.                                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1007 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY                    
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN THE AREA OF STORMS ON CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER                
WHICH SHOWS AN MCV IS QUICKLY SHRINKING IN SIZE AND WEAKENING                   
MORE THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT. HAVE DECREASED PROBABILITY OF STORMS                
TO CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGHOUT REGION UNTIL NOON AND MOST OF EAST                
PORTION TIL 3PM.                                                                
TWO SHORTWAVES OF CONCERN: ONE CURRENTLY AT SOUTHWEST CORNER OF                 
ND WHICH IS KEEPING THE REMAINING SHOWERS GOING AHEAD OF IT...AND               
ANOTHER NEAR CO/NE/KS STATE JUNCTION. THE FIRST WILL TARGET                     
NORTHEAST ND AND THE LATTER FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST (INTO RED RIVER              
VALLEY). AN EARLY EXTRAPOLATIVE APPROACH PLACES THE SHORTWAVES                  
INTO THE CWA MUCH LATER THAN RUC INDICATES BUT IS MORE IN LINE                  
WITH CURRENT PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES. BUT AM NOT                  
SURE OF THE TIMING OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD TO DESTABILIZE                
ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ANYWAY.                                               
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO GRIDS OR ZONES AND WILL BE KEEPING WATCH                
FOR SIGNATURES IN SATELLITE AND OBS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY                
     MORNING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.                                            
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY                
     MORNING FOR MNZ003-029.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
415 PM PDT SUN APR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON              
MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. THE QUIET               
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION               
ON TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS                     
APPARENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON.              
COMPARING 21Z VAD WIND PROFILER DATA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER FROM                
KOTX AND KPDT ALSO SHOWS THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE THAT HAS HELPED               
PRODUCE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON                   
TODAY. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE IS NOT STRONG DYNAMICALLY...BUT WITH A               
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST                                
ADIABATIC...LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE                 
RUC AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHALLOW FEATURE EXISTS...BUT DOESN`T              
EXACTLY HAVE THE SMALL SCALE RESOLUTION PEGGED. BOTH MODELS                     
GRADUALLY MINOR THIS CIRCULATION OUT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...SO A                 
GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...AND                  
PERHAPS A SHIFT OF THE PRECIPITATION AXIS SOUTHWARD AS THE                      
CIRCULATION IS ABSORBED BE THE LARGER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE                
GREAT BASIN. THE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND WILL NOT BE SCOURED OUT VERY              
EFFICIENTLY SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE QUITE LIGHT                  
TONIGHT. AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST WITH THE BIGGER UPPER                
TROUGH...REDEVELOPMENT OF BROKEN STRATUS IS PROBABLE IN THE                     
SPOKANE...PULLMAN...AND LEWISTON AREAS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL               
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HINDER OUR WARM UP OVER THE PANHANDLE AND                 
FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON. LOW TO MID 60S ARE WHAT WE EXPECT FOR THE               
SPOKANE AND PULLMAN AREAS TOMORROW...BUT HIGHS COULD BE A BIT                   
WARMER OR A BIT COOLER DEPENDING ON THE NATURE OF THE STRATUS                   
TOMORROW.                                                                       
TUESDAY...THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECASTING               
THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING OUT OF                
THE GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY                     
IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 1.25 INCHES...BUT THE COLD FRONT               
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO                   
SIGNIFICANT STRETCHING. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES CENTRAL AND               
EASTERN WASHINGTON...THE LOWLANDS MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH               
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG                 
THE EAST SLOPES AND INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WITH LOW CHANCES                  
(30-40 PERCENT) FOR THE SPOKANE...PULLMAN...AND LEWISTON AREAS                  
TUESDAY EVENING. /GKOCH                                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS TODAY ARE ONCE AGAIN IN                       
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT AGAIN HAVING INITIALIZATION                     
PROBLEMS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT MAY HAVE A BEARING ON THE                 
EVENTUAL FORECAST EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z                 
GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZED THE SPRAWLING 500 MB LOW THERE MUCH MORE              
ACCURATELY THAN THE BULK OF THE GEFS MEMBERS AND THE GEFS                       
MEAN...SO FORECAST WILL TREND HEAVILY TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL 12Z                
GFS AND ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTED THE LAST                 
SEVERAL DAYS BY GUIDANCE SHOULD HOLD TRUE...THOUGH A FEW TIMING                 
DIFFERENCES COME ABOUT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE                 
GFS AND ECMWF WHICH TEND TO BE THE BETTER PERFORMING MEDIUM RANGE               
MODELS.                                                                         
THE BASIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE                  
NEARLY OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO              
AROUND -26C AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AT OR BELOW                    
ZERO...WESTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15KTS INDICATED BY GFS AND                 
NAM SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY EAST TIME INTERACTING WITH TOPOGRAPHY TO               
CAUSE UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GFS                 
AND NAM SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS VERY WELL IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH              
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE RIDGES AND OVER THE NORTHEAST                   
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. HAVE ALSO ADDED                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WEST PLAINS AND PALOUSE GIVEN THE                  
MORE GENTLE UPSLOPE FROM LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WITH GENERAL FLOW                 
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO POP WITH THE LOW                  
LEVEL INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE MODELS.                                          
CONDITIONS QUICKLY QUIET DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER SUBDUED               
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START TO              
REBOUND SOME...BUT THE WINDOW WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION IS NOT                 
VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH THE 12Z RUNS TODAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE               
NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE CASCADES WITH               
GOOD Q-CONVERGENCE BELOW 500 MB CROSSING THE NORTHERN 3/4THS OF                 
THE CWA AND GFS INDICATING PRETTY GOOD ISENTROPIC OMEGAS IN THE                 
295 TO 305K LAYER WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING                   
DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY BELOW 10 MB ON STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY                     
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 300K. MODELS FAIL TO HAVE WARM FRONT                      
TRAVERSE AREA ENOUGH WITH THE 12Z RUN TODAY TO GET US FULLY INTO                
THE WARM SECTOR...AND AS A RESULT BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES ARE                   
BASICALLY NIL WITH THIS SYSTEM...IN FACT THE FORECAST WILL                      
BASICALLY JUST MENTION STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ON MAINLY                       
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WITH A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF SOME COLDER MID-LEVEL              
AIR SKIRTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND UPSLOPE                  
FLOW PERSISTING BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY...HAVE ADDED THE                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERY POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG                
LAPSE RATES AND WIND FLOW.                                                      
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT                           
WEEK...MODELS OTHER THAN THE DGEX REALLY START TO CRANK HEIGHTS UP              
OVER THE CWA. THE DGEX SOLUTION DOES INDICATE RIDGING BUILDING IN               
AS WELL...BUT IN A MUCH MORE SUBDUED FASHION THAN THE GFS AND                   
ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN GLOBAL ONLY GOES OUT              
144 HRS...BUT CANADIAN GEM ENSEMBLES DO HINT AT A FAIR AMOUNT OF                
RIDGING BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN SEF               
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. FOR THE                  
MOMENT DUE TO CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND                      
ECMWF...THE WARMER SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE               
SLOWED DOWN ABOUT ONE DAY FROM THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY...BUT IT                  
SEEMS BY SUNDAY AND DEFINITELY MONDAY NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD BE IN               
FOR A STRONG WARMING TREND. /FRIES                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE CASCADES IS QUICKLY ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE             
OF BOTH THE LOW CLOUD FIELD AND PRECIPITATION FIELD. WITH CLEARING              
COMING IN A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THIS EFFECT...EFFICIENT            
RADIATION WILL PROBABLY CAUSE INVERSIONS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND WITH             
RAINFALL TODAY...LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG SEEM TO BE A BIT MORE               
LIKELY UNDER THE INVERSION THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HAVE THEREFORE                 
CONTINUED WITH THEM IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...SKIES SCATTER OUT QUICKLY            
TOMORROW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z EVERYWHERE. /FRIES           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        40  63  42  65  41  55 /  30  10   0  20  40  20                 
COEUR D`ALENE  40  63  42  65  41  56 /  20  10  10  20  50  20                 
PULLMAN        38  60  43  64  41  55 /  40  10  10  20  50  20                 
LEWISTON       46  65  44  70  47  59 /  40  10  10  10  40  10                 
COLVILLE       38  67  42  65  37  54 /  20  10   0  40  30  20                 
SANDPOINT      39  65  40  64  43  54 /  20  20  10  20  50  20                 
KELLOGG        39  61  40  63  41  54 /  30  20  10  20  50  30                 
MOSES LAKE     42  70  44  67  42  62 /  20   0  10  20  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      45  70  46  66  44  61 /  10   0  10  20  10  10                 
OMAK           39  70  42  65  37  60 /  10   0  10  30  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
410 AM MDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                    
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS A BIT COMPLICATED AS SATELLITE AND              
RUC SHOW MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS AND VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND            
THE MAIN LOW IN SOUTHERN NV. ONE VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO NW CO AND NE           
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SHORT DRIER SLOT OVER CENTRAL AND SW           
CO AND SE UTAH. THEN THE NEXT VORT MAX WILL MOVE FROM NW AZ/SW UT               
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW IS PROJECTED TO             
MOVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT. CONTEMPLATED A              
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SAN JUAN MT ALONG WITH WFO PUB...BUT WE DECIDED           
AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WARM TONIGHT...-1 TO -4           
AT THE COOLEST AT 700 MB. ALSO AM NOT SURE ENOUGH ABOUT THE MOISTURE            
AVAILABLE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. DAY SHIFT WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO             
ASSESS WHERE THE BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER SEEING WHERE IT ALL              
MOVES THIS MORNING.                                                             
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS LOW MOVES EAST           
OF THE AREA...THOUGH MAY HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND                 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL                    
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                        
THIS PERSISTENT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN           
IN THESE PERIODS...FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY BY               
NEXT WEEKEND.  SYNOPTIC TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NEXT            
WAVE SPLITS WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BRUSHING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF              
THE FORECAST AREA ON THU. SOME ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION GETS              
TRAPPED SOMEWHERE IN THE BAJA REGION...THEN WEAKENS STILL FURTHER AS            
IT EJECTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING                
WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE           
WINDS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...                 
RIDGING TAKES OVER FOR A SPELL. MODEL CONSISTENCY DECREASES BY THE              
WEEKEND IN THE HANDLING OF THE LINGERING SOUTHERN ENERGY. FOR THAT              
REASON...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST BELOW GUIDANCE              
FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...BUT TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THIS                 
BENIGN WX TREND CONTINUES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
CJC/JOE/EH                                                                      
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
409 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE 03 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE                
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE GULF COAST OF LA. VAPOR IMAGERY                
AND UPPER AIR PROFILER DATA SHOW RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A                
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES              
REGION...AND A CLOSED LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER NV. SO FAR                 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF SMOKE AT OUR OBSERVING STATIONS IN                
SOUTH CENTRAL GA...AND THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS SURFACE              
SMOKE JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW           
BECOMES SOUTHERLY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY-WEDNESDAY) THE 00 UTC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD                      
AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE                
SLIGHT POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR OUR GA AND AL COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A                
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER              
MOISTURE) MOVES QUICKLY EAST OVER THIS AREA. 20-40 PERCENT POPS                 
ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM               
THE WEST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES.                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY-MONDAY) THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST THE WEAK COLD FRONT                
TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL BE                
IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS                
IMPRESSIVE TO OUR WEST...BUT THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IT IN A WEAKENING               
TREND BY THE TIME IT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS                 
WARM AND DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS                  
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. WITH THE SURFACE WINDS VEERING AROUND                  
TOWARD THE SOUTH...THE SMOKE PLUME FROM WARE COUNTY WILL REMAIN                 
WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE FROM THE                  
MOODY RADAR INDICATES 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH UP TO 6              
TO 8 KFT. EXPECT THESE WIND CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE                  
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...BACKED-OFF FROM THE PREVIOUS                
IFR VSBY FORECAST TO MVFR FOR THE KVLD SITE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE NOT INCREASED LIKE WE THOUGHT THEY WOULD...BUT              
THE RUC MAINTAINS THEY WILL SHORTLY...AND WE USUALLY DO GET A                   
NOCTURNAL SURGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE NOW THINK WINDS AND SEAS WILL               
REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THIS MORNING.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
THE MOS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO MOIST IN THEIR DEWPOINT                   
FORECASTS THIS SEASON...AND THIS HAPPENED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.               
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL WRF SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT                
(SIMILAR TO SUNDAY)...AND WE EXPECT TO ONCE AGAIN MIX INTO THIS                 
AIR. THUS WE UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES...AND         
EXPANDED OUR RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY TO INCLUDE OUR GA ZONES.                
IT WILL BE MARGINAL IN GA...BUT HAVE FOUND THAT IT IS USUALLY BEST              
TO GO WITH WARNINGS IN THESE CASES. WE ALSO UNDERCUT THE DEWPOINTS              
FOR TUESDAY...BUT LEFT THE WATCH ALONE FOR NOW.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  52  83  56  84  63 /   0  10  10  10  20                           
PANAMA CITY  60  79  64  80  66 /  10  10  10  20  30                           
DOTHAN       56  83  61  83  64 /  10  20  10  20  40                           
ALBANY       56  82  58  84  63 /  10  20  10  10  30                           
VALDOSTA     52  83  57  83  63 /   0  10  10  10  20                           
CROSS CITY   52  84  56  84  61 /   0  10  10  10  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS                 
     EVENING FOR ALL ZONES.                                                     
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS                 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...GADSDEN...                        
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...               
     WAKULLA.                                                                   
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY                  
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...GADSDEN...                        
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...               
     WAKULLA.                                                                   
GMZ750...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ755...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ770...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ775...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GIBBS                                                                
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
345 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TODAY/TONIGHT...DLM LARGE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OFF THE             
SE/MID ATLC COAST WILL GENERATE A STEADY E/SELY FLOW ACROSS THE FL              
PENINSULA THRU DAYBREAK TUE.  THE 00Z SOUNDINGS ALL MEASURED A                  
MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H90-H60 LYR...WHILE LATEST RUC              
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS OVER WRN ATLC TO BE FAR TOO DRY             
TO SUPPORT A SCT STRATOCU DECK...MUCH LESS ANY RAINFALL.  THE STEADY            
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO CLIMO ALONG TEH COASTAL                   
COUNTIES AND NEAR CLIMO INLAND...MIN TEMPS WILL BE ABV CLIMO COASTAL            
AND NEAR CLIMO INLAND.                                                          
TUE-THU...ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN INTACT ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK THEN            
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THU AS DEEPENING TROUGH REACHES THE MS RIVER                
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION TUE SETTLES TO            
CENTRAL PENINSULA WED AND TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATITUDE                      
THU...RESULTING IN LIGHT ONSHORE/EAST WINDS INITIALLY...VEERING TO              
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY TUE/WED THEN WILL BEGIN            
TO MOISTEN THU AS WINDS VEER AND TAP HIGHER MOISTURE SOURCE. WITH               
LIMITED LIFT HOWEVER...WILL STAY WITH DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE               
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TUE...THEN WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES               
ABOVE CLIMO MOST AREAS WED-THU AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ACQUIRE MORE                  
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.                                                            
FRI-SUN...UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY FOLLOWED              
BY BRIEF PERIOD OF FLATTENED MID LEVEL FLOW BEFORE NEXT WEAKER                  
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT               
REACHES THE PANHANDLE FRI THEN LIKELY SLOWS/STALLS/WEAKENS OVER                 
NORTHERN PENINSULA SAT. INCREASED MOISTURE DEPTH COMBINED WITH WEAK             
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WARRANTS SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRI-SAT                 
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW 30-40 PERCENT GFS POP GUIDANCE            
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF SUPPORT REACHING CWA. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS               
EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA FROM THE GULF COAST SUNDAY. TEMPS AVERAGING             
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES THRU 24/00Z...OCNL SFC WND G22KTS ALONG               
THE COAST S OF KMLB FM 16Z THRU 22Z.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS BUILDING SE INTO THE WRN ATLC WILL GENERATE A              
STEADY ERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LCL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER             
THE NRN LEG GIVEN THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE              
STRONGER WINDS OVR THE SRN LEG WILL WORK WITH AN ERLY SWELL TO PUSH             
COMBINED SEAS INTO THE CAUTIONARY RANGE.  WAVEWATCH MODEL                       
INITIALIZES THE SWELL A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVELY WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7FT             
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT                    
READINGS FROM BUOY009 AND THE FT. PIERCE SCRIPPS BUOY.  WILL CAP                
WINDS/SEAS OVER THE SRN LEG IN THE CAUTIONARY RANGE THRU 12Z TUE.               
ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY AOB 15KT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE                
RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TO                      
CENTRAL/SOUTH PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE WEEK...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER             
TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THU-FRI AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BRIEF                 
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS....15-20 KT...POSSIBLE ACROSS OFFSHORE                 
WATERS THU. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TUE...THEN WILL FALL AOB 4 FT             
WED-FRI. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...SPLIT DECISION TODAY WRT UPGRADING THE FIRE WATCH TO            
A RED FLAG WARNING.  GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER              
THE PANHANDLE/NRN PENINSULA...SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE NRN            
INTERIOR BUT SUPPRESSION WILL BE STRONGER...CONDITIONS THAT WOULD               
FAVOR A DURATION RFW.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE TIGHTER PGRAD OVER               
THE SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A 15KT                
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST...WHICH WILL ADVECT MARINE MODIFIED               
AIR WELL INLAND THIS AFTN AND SHOULD PREVENT RH DURATIONS.                      
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE S WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO THE              
INSTANTANEOUS RFW CONDITION OF 15 MPH/35% RH.  THE SITUATION IS                 
MARGINAL...BUT GIVEN THE LATEST KBDI INDEXES ARE WELL OVER 500...               
WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND UPGRADE THE WATCH TO AN RFW FOR             
ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM 12 NOON THRU 800 PM.                                 
MIN RH LIKELY TO REACH 40-45 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK            
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AND DIURNAL                 
MIXING TAKES PLACE DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING. GIVEN HIGH KBDI                  
VALUES ACROSS AREA...HEIGHTENED FIRE WX THREAT WILL CONTINUE...                 
ALTHOUGH CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  79  60  80  65 /   0   0   0  10                                           
MCO  83  60  84  64 /   0   0   0  10                                           
MLB  80  62  81  67 /   0   0   0  10                                           
VRB  80  64  81  67 /   0   0   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR              
     INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-                    
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.                                                    
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW                                                    
LONG TERM....SPRATT                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
337 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE TIMING OF ENDING             
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN                  
WISCONSIN....A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LOW DEEPENING             
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE WISCONSIN               
LOW IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE            
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT LINKING A LOW              
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO.                   
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DRAPES SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN LOW THROUGH THE                
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A PAIR OF LOW CENTERS ARE                      
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. ONE IS OVER EASTERN                
COLORADO AND THE OTHER IS OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. A HIGH PRESSURE             
CENTER IS BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CANADA.                                         
THE WISCONSIN LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE U.P. TODAY                
REACHING EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE                
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL RACE TO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING A            
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES                  
REGION. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA AND BEGIN             
TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THIS            
HIGH WILL DRAW COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN. TRACKING            
THE SPEED AND MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL LOW SHOWS THAT IT WILL BE OVER              
THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING THE WRAP                
AROUND MOISTURE IS ABOUT 3 HOURS BEHIND THE MID LEVEL CENTER. THUS              
BY 15Z DRIER AIR SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN U.P. AND BY 20Z MOST OF               
THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TIMING IN                
THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. GFS/RUC/NAM AGREES WITH THIS TIMING.                 
MODELS SHOWING STRONG DIVERGENCE SPREADING OVER THE AREA BY NOON.               
SHOWALTER INDEX CONTINUES TO SHOW <2 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN             
U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE SHOWALTER INDEX ONLY THE              
EASTERN U.P. WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY 15Z. WEAK               
MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN ONLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. LI`S ALSO                
WILL BE WELL 4 AROUND 12Z. THIS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO >10 BY 15Z.            
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT              
THIS TIME WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR              
TWO. A WEAK POTENTIAL REMAINS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN              
U.P. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.                                                       
MODELS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VARIATION              
ARE SHOWING UP ON THURSDAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. I AGREE            
WITH HPC THAT THE NAM SHOWS THE BEST CONTINUITY AT 500MB WITH THE               
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SO WILL FAVOR THE                    
NAM/CANADIAN ALOFT AND THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN CONSENSUS AT THE SURFACE            
THROUGH 84 HOURS.                                                               
THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC                  
TONIGHT. THE GREAT BASIN LOW WILL MIGRATE INTO MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS.              
THE SURFACE LOWS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MERGE INTO A LOW OVER WESTERN            
KANSAS. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER MANITOBA AND EXPAND INTO             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING COOLER DRIER MORE SEASONAL AIR            
TO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL               
BLANKET THE REGION TONIGHT OTHERWISE DRY BELOW 500MB.                           
THE HIGH PLAINS CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE KANSAS SURFACE LOW WILL               
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER                  
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER CANADA WILL SETTLE OVER              
THE UPPER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
156 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 55KTS AT 3KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE             
THIS EVENING ACCORDING TO THE RADAR JUSTIFYING THE LLWS OVERNIGHT               
FOR ALL TAF SITES.  OTHERWISE...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN                 
SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BEEN TIMED TO ENTER NW LOWER                   
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS BAND HAS BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS IT            
RUNS INTO VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE LAKES...AND BELIEVE THESE SHOWERS             
WILL RUN OUT OF STEAM PRIOR TO REACHING TVC/PLN. SHOWERS AND                    
ISOLATED TSTORMS (WITH MVFR VSBYS) WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A                
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR            
BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON (MVFR CIGS...MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR VSBYS).             
STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO VFR                  
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.              
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SUN APR 22                                      
LATEST RUC/SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A PLETHORA             
OF SURFACE LOWS...ONE OVER FAR WESTERN IOWA...ANOTHER OVER NORTHERN             
WISCONSIN...AND A LAST ONE OVER QUEBEC...ALL LOCATED ALONG A COLD               
FRONT BEING PUSHED SLOWLY EAST BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH LIES OVER            
NW IOWA.  A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN                   
PROGRESSING STEADILY NW ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT ROUGHLY PLACED AT            
AROUND 700MB AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING.  A SLOW WEAKENING                
TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE SHOWERS AS THEY RUN INTO THE VERY DRY             
AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES (13C/18C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 700MB            
FROM 00Z GRB/APX SOUNDINGS).  SURFACE TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY COOLED INTO             
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THIS EVENING...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED                
FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT ITS DESIGNATED TIME.  MAIN FORECAST                   
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS                  
EVENING.                                                                        
COMPLEX SCENARIO SHAPING UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE NOT            
CAPTURING THE SHOWERS ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT WELL AS THE                   
NAM/GFS BOTH WANT TO KEEP THE MID-LEVELS DRY DESPITE THE UPSTREAM               
CONDITIONS.  WILL LEAN AWAY FROM THE MODELS WITH THIS FORCING                   
INITIALLY.  LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS TIMED TO APPROACH SW LOWER                  
MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT WILL THEY HOLD TOGETHER                 
THROUGH THE DRY AIR? STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5C/KM LIE               
AHEAD OF THE BAND DUE TO A WARM NOSE AT 700MB SHOWN ON GRB/APX                  
SOUNDINGS.  BUT DESPITE THIS INSTABILITY...THE DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE            
WINNING OUT JUDGING BY LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  WILL INTRODUCE A 30 PCT            
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR            
THIS.  OTHERWISE...STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REACH WISCONSIN AND                
CENTRAL UPPER WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM GRB TO WHITEFISH POINT            
BY 12Z.  FORCING DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND -DIV Q            
LOOK TO SPREAD A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN             
UPPER BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE              
WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-6.5C/KM.  BUT BULK OF THE                  
PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING.            
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                              
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN APR 22                          
THE MAIN 500 MB RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS            
ADDING SOME UMPH TO THE COLD FRONT IN MINNESOTA THAT IS EXPECTED TO             
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH THE SFC LOWS ATTACHED TO THE              
FRONT AND FORMER HUDSON BAY HIGH, NOW TRANSITIONING TO A BERMUDA                
HIGH, ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN, PROVIDING A STRONG                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BOOSTING WINDS DURING THE DAY.                                
TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PART OF THE FORECAST              
PACKAGE WILL THE CESSATION OF THE RED FLAG AND THE COMMENCEMENT OF              
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT TREND FOR            
THE FIRE WEATHER, WILL LET THE WARNING RIDE UNTIL 00Z. WHILE THE                
MAIN PART OF THE RISK LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DONE AROUND 22Z A FEW              
SITES MAY STAY A LITTLE LONGER (LIKE 00Z).                                      
THUNDER STORMS ARE THE NEXT THING TO TACKLE. WITH THE DRY AIR IN                
PLACE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.            
THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE GOOFY WITH A FEW, WHAT LOOKS FEEDBACK DRIVEN,            
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW. IF THE GFS WOULD BE BELIEVED, THE                
THUNDER WOULD BE IN BY 06Z AND THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WOULD             
WORK, BUT THE NAM WITH NO EVIDENT FEEDBACK, LOOKS BETTER. SO HAVE               
GONE WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM,             
BUT SHOULD FALL A BIT AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE AND THE SKIES REMAIN                
CLEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE                 
MORNING.                                                                        
LUTZ                                                                            
MONDAY...MODEL DATA SHOWING A STORM SYSTEM EAST OF HUDSON BAY...                
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY              
NIGHT CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WRN LAKES MONDAY MORNING.                
THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP OVR THE STATE MONDAY...EXITING EAST INTO                
LAKE HURON IN THE EVENING. 500 MB UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP OVER THE              
STATE DURING THE DAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE               
STATE BEHIND THE TROF IN THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM IS WORKING ITSELF              
INTO A PRETTY DRY AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE OVR THE STATE INTO THE EARLY            
MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE                      
ATMOSPHERIC MSTR INCREASING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. 850/500MB RH                     
INCREASES TO OVR 80 PCT ACRS THE CWA BY 15Z. WILL MENTION LIKELY/CAT            
POPS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING POPS TO              
CHC OVER THE WRN CWA BY THE AFTERNOON...AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER                
LEVEL FEATURES PROGRESS EAST.                                                   
TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDS TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING                    
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TUESDAY             
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES WHILE            
A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE NRN OHIO              
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUNDING DATA AND                 
850/500 MB MSTR PROGS...SHOW RH INCREASING TO 70 PCT OVR THE SAGINAW            
BAY REGION...WITH THE REST OF FCST AREA REMAINING MUCH DRIER IN THE             
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH. WILL MENTION A CHC OF PCPN FOR THE EXTREME             
SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.                                
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH...DROPS SOUTH OVR THE                  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...AS THE OHIO VALLEY STORM                  
SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EAST COAST. UPPER              
LVLS SHOW AN UPPER TROF MOVING OVER THE LAKES REGION IN THE                     
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOUNDING DATA SHOWS DRY CONDS LINGERING OVER THE             
NRN LAKES...WITH 850/500MB RH LINGERING AROUND 40 PCT. THEREFORE                
WILL MENTION DRY CONDS ACRS THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE MID             
50S...AS 850 TEMPS INDICATE A COOL POOL ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS ARND               
-1C.                                                                            
THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...                                                         
THURSDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH              
THE OHIO VALLEY. RESULTANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE                       
OVER THE NRN LAKE REGION. 500MB PATTERN...SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH                 
MOVING OVER THE UPPER LAKES THURSDAY MOVING EAST OF LAKE HURON IN               
THE AFTERNOON. 850/700MB RH AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY LOW                 
LEVELS WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID LVL MSTR NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THE               
UPPER TROF. HOWEVER LOW LVLS...AROUND 30 PCT BTW 850/700...LOOK TO              
REMAIN TO DRY FOR PCPN MOST OF THE CWA AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.             
THEREFORE WILL TRIM POP CHCS BACK. WILL MENTION HIGHS IN THE LOW TO             
MID 50S ACRS THE CWA...AS SOME COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT IN THE                 
UPPER TROF...850 TEMPS TO ARND 0C. WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD               
BTW GRAYLING AND MIO IN THE JACK PINE FLATS WHERE DRY SANDY                     
SOIL...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TYPICALLY ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING.            
FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT ACRS THE STATE.             
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE STATE AND MUCH              
OF THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY...WHILE A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST                
ACRS NRN CANADA AND INTO HUDSON BAY. SOUNDING DATA AND 850/700 MSTR             
PROGS (ARND 40 PCT 850/700) SHOWING DRY CONDS TO PERSIST OVR THE                
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION WARMER                    
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...DUE TO AFTN SUNSHINE...AND UPPER                
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE WARMING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +4C.            
ONCE AGAIN WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD BTW GRAYLING AND MIO IN               
THE SANDY SOIL JACK PINE FLATS AREAS.                                           
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...MODEL DATA WITH SOME DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN SFC               
AND UPPER LVL PATTERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL TREND             
IS FOR RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING BACK INTO            
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST...WITH A STORM SYSTEM REMAINING ARND                
HUDSON BAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRYING TO MOVE OVER THE               
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TWD THE WRN LAKES. CURRENTLY LOOKS             
LIKE BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN MSTR INCREASES A LITTLE            
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE STATE. THEREFORE WILL             
KEEP A CHC OF PCPN SATURDAY MOST ZONES. OTHERWISE SFC RIDGING AND               
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES INTO SUNDAY...SO WILL              
MENTION DRY CONDS INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL MENTION             
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DUE TO SOME SUN AND SOUTHERLY              
FLOW DEVELOPING.                                                                
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
1057 AM CDT MON APR 23 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DESPITE DIRTY RIDGING ATOP THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...ISOLATED                
SHOWERS ARE FORMING OVER SCNTRL/NE LA...WHERE CURRENT ANALYSIS                  
INDICATES ANOTHER SFC-850MB THETA-E RIDGE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OVER              
THESE AREAS. MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW...ROUGHLY BELOW 9KFT...AND MODEL          
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CURRENT STRONG CAPPING INVERSION                
NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THUS               
LIMITING SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT. 15Z LAPS ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES                
LOWEST CIN WHERE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING...WHICH COINCIDES WELL          
WITH THE CU FIELD THAT IS SCATTERING OUT/TEMPS ARE HEATING UP. NOT TOO          
SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH DEVELOPMENT OVER E TX GIVEN HIGHER CIN/MORE            
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL N LA          
EXCEPT THE EXTREME NW SECTIONS /I.E. SHV/...AND ALSO DEEP E TX WHERE            
THE RUC/12Z NAM INDICATE ADDITIONAL THETA-E RIDGING THIS                        
AFTERNOON....IN THE LATE MORNING ZONE UPDATE. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY                 
CONDITIONS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER OVER E TX/SE OK...AND ALSO MADE VERY          
MINOR TWEAK TO THE MAX TEMPS GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT OTHERWISE...FORECAST     
REMAINS ON TRACK.                                                               
SHORTWAVE STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH NE TX/SE OK/SW AR                    
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING TUESDAY AS           
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS E INTO E CO/TX-OK PANHANDLE REGION. BUT MORE ON           
THIS...AND THE POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS...IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.           
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                                                             
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS ACROSS REGION AT THIS TIME.  CONDITIONS                    
IMPROVING TO VFR AFT 23/16Z.                                                    
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY              
16Z. /23/                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  83  67  78  65 /  10  20  40  60                                           
MLU  81  65  80  65 /  20  20  30  50                                           
DEQ  79  65  75  64 /  10  20  60  60                                           
TXK  80  67  76  64 /  10  20  50  60                                           
ELD  82  65  78  64 /  20  20  40  60                                           
TYR  80  67  76  64 /  10  20  50  60                                           
GGG  81  67  76  64 /  10  20  50  60                                           
LFK  82  68  78  66 /  20  20  40  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/23                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1043 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING            
ACROSS LAKE MI TO LWR MI WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING                 
FROM JAMES BAY TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS              
FROM NEAR KGRB TO NEAR SAULT STE MARIE. EVEN THOUGH FRONT HAS                   
CLEARED THE FCST AREA...-SHRA/-RA LINGER OVER CNTRL/ERN UPPER                   
MI...BUT THE PCPN IS QUICKLY MOVING E. UPSTREAM...SKIES HAVE ALREADY            
CLEARED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF                  
MOISTURE/CLOUDS JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR HEADING SE.                            
AREA OF -SHRA/-RA OVER CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI LINES UP WELL WITH                    
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS LOCATED JUST BEHIND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS            
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO HEAD E...FORCING WILL ALSO EXIT THE AREA.                
BASED ON LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE             
OF HRS...THE LAST OF THE -SHRA/-RA SHOULD EXIT THE FAR ERN FCST AREA            
AROUND 17Z. INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. AS FOR                    
CLOUDS...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THRU EARLY AFTN WILL LEAD TO             
ADDITIONAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE                 
SCOURED OUT. IN ADDITION...BATCH OF MOISTURE/STRATOCU NW OF LAKE                
SUPERIOR SUGGESTS SKIES PROBABLY WON`T CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY THIS                
AFTN. ONLY EXCEPTION SHOULD BE OVER THE FAR W AS MESOHIGH PRES                  
DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE OWING TO INCREASING LAKE/LAND TEMP                       
DIFFERENCE. RESULTING SUBSIDENCE/DIVERGENT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES            
TO CLEAR NEAR THE SHORE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...THERE               
SHOULD BE A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUD COVER FROM W TO E            
THRU THE AFTN WITH ANY LINGERING STRATOCU DISSIPATING EARLY THIS                
EVENING. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...              
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. STIFF NW WIND ACROSS ERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LWR/MID 40S ALONG THE LAKE E OF               
MARQUETTE THRU THE AFTN. BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS...HIGHS SHOULD TOP              
OUT AROUND 60/LWR 60S OVER THE SW PORTION OF FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...            
50S WILL BE THE RULE MOST AREAS TODAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT)...                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE TIMING OF ENDING             
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN                  
WISCONSIN....A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LOW DEEPENING             
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE WISCONSIN               
LOW IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE            
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT LINKING A LOW              
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO.                   
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DRAPES SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN LOW THROUGH THE                
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A PAIR OF LOW CENTERS ARE                      
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. ONE IS OVER EASTERN                
COLORADO AND THE OTHER IS OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. A HIGH PRESSURE             
CENTER IS BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CANADA.                                         
THE WISCONSIN LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE U.P. TODAY                
REACHING EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE                
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL RACE TO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING A            
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES                  
REGION. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA AND BEGIN             
TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THIS            
HIGH WILL DRAW COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN. TRACKING            
THE SPEED AND MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL LOW SHOWS THAT IT WILL BE OVER              
THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING THE WRAP                
AROUND MOISTURE IS ABOUT 3 HOURS BEHIND THE MID LEVEL CENTER. THUS              
BY 15Z DRIER AIR SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN U.P. AND BY 20Z MOST OF               
THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TIMING IN                
THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. GFS/RUC/NAM AGREES WITH THIS TIMING.                 
MODELS SHOWING STRONG DIVERGENCE SPREADING OVER THE AREA BY NOON.               
SHOWALTER INDEX CONTINUES TO SHOW <2 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN             
U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE SHOWALTER INDEX ONLY THE              
EASTERN U.P. WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY 15Z. WEAK               
MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN ONLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. LI`S ALSO                
WILL BE WELL 4 AROUND 12Z. THIS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO >10 BY 15Z.            
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT              
THIS TIME WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR              
TWO. A WEAK POTENTIAL REMAINS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN              
U.P. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.                                                       
MODELS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VARIATION              
ARE SHOWING UP ON THURSDAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. I AGREE            
WITH HPC THAT THE NAM SHOWS THE BEST CONTINUITY AT 500MB WITH THE               
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SO WILL FAVOR THE                    
NAM/CANADIAN ALOFT AND THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN CONSENSUS AT THE SURFACE            
THROUGH 84 HOURS.                                                               
THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC                  
TONIGHT. THE GREAT BASIN LOW WILL MIGRATE INTO MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS.              
THE SURFACE LOWS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MERGE INTO A LOW OVER WESTERN            
KANSAS. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER MANITOBA AND EXPAND INTO             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING COOLER DRIER MORE SEASONAL AIR            
TO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL               
BLANKET THE REGION TONIGHT OTHERWISE DRY BELOW 500MB.                           
THE HIGH PLAINS CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE KANSAS SURFACE LOW WILL               
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER                  
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER CANADA WILL SETTLE OVER              
THE UPPER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
DLG (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1123 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
BUSY DAY WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. 5 SPOT FORECASTS FOR PRESCRIBED              
BURNS SO FAR. RED FLAG WARNING FOR PA DUE TO LOWER WIND CRITERIA.               
SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN NY BUT WIND CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. UPDATE TO                 
BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY INTO 70S                  
WITH LOW AND MID 80S EXPECTED. REMOVED POPS FROM THE EARLY AFTN                 
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND RUC. SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TS LATE AFTN                  
INTO TONIGHT. LIS CLOSE TO ZERO AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GOOD FOR              
A FEW HOURS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS                   
LACKING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING ONLY INTO THE U40S.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 635 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007/                                             
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE                   
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND NOON, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE.                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER NIGHTFALL.  DJP               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 254 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                     
WAVE MOVING THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE WILL               
CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT PULLS NORTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF THE              
FRONT HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY YIELDING CONTROL OVER THE MID                     
ATLANTIC STATES. THE INCREASED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COMPETING                   
SYSTEMS WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.                   
WITH THE AIR STILL DRY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, AND ONLY A                   
MARGINAL RISE IN DEW POINTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY                
FLOW, EXPECT THE WINDS WILL CAUSE A GREATER DANGER FOR FIRE. WE                 
HAVE RAISED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF OUR PA COUNTIES, AS IT                
APPEARS THE WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET BY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY               
FUELS ALREADY IN PLACE, AND THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED BRUSH FIRES                
REPORTED PREVIOUS 2 DAYS.                                                       
THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE ONCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH               
OF OUR REGION, INTO CANADA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A                      
THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN AREAS OF OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON,                
BUT BELIEVE THIS THREAT WILL BE FINISHED ONCE THE SUN SETS AND                  
INSTABILITY SLACKENS.                                                           
WITH DRY AIR PROGGED TO RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WE WENT WITH              
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY AND ALSO BOOSTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.             
THE NEXT CHC FOR SUSTAINED PRECIP APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WHEN A                
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ALONG A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE                   
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST PA. DJP                                               
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. OVERRUNNING RAIN MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AND              
STAYING ESPECIALLY IN PA UNTIL SFC LOW MOVES TO THE COAST FRIDAY.               
ON SATURDAY TO SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON NW FLOW WITH                
SHOWERS. FOR THE EXTENDED WET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.              
WITH THE LONG PERIOD OF RAIN AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED MOST                  
LOCATIONS COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES. NE PA COULD GET MORE AND WILL                
NEED TO BE WATCHED SINCE 2 INCHES STARTS GETTING AROUND FLASH                   
FLOOD AND FLOOD GUIDANCE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...&&                                                                         
$$                                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
952 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST PACKAGE                
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE STILL TARGETED AT              
LOWER TO MID 80S. SURFACE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED              
SOMEWHAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.               
CONTINUED DRY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.  -RFG                                          
&&                                                                              
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY.                
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED AT 30 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE                     
SURFACE BASED MORNING INVERSION WITH A BURNOFF TEMPERATURE NEAR 73              
THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS MAY SURFACE TO NEAR 30 MPH ANYTIME AFTER               
TEMPERATURES REACH MID 70S. MIXING HEIGHTS MAX OUT AROUND 7000 FT               
WITH SURFACE MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING LOWER TO MID 80S THIS                    
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DEWPOINTS LOWERING              
INTO THE 30S MAINLY NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COMPUTES TO                
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 18-23 PERCENT RANGE. -RFG                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 314 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007/                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE                  
TUESDAY.THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE                  
AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST FROM                     
TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE STATE LATE                    
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN WORK ITS                 
WAY ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.                                         
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF SHORE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE               
LINGERS OFF THE COAST... WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE                   
SOUTHWEST AND WEST. WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER MAXIMUM                       
RADIATION WILL OCCUR PUSHING THE MERCURY IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST               
OF THE AREA.                                                                    
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS               
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW WILL                
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH NOT TO THREATEN US WITH MORE THAN AN                    
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID              
80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.                    
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                   
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AS                   
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY                    
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OVER             
SPREAD THE REGION. A BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PORTION              
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST AS HIGH                     
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY               
AND SUNDAY.                                                                     
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF               
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. GUSTS                       
APPROACHING 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CEILINGS            
AND VISIBILITIES UNLIMITED.                                                     
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-                    
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...RFG                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1134 AM CDT MON APR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN CHANGE FOR FIRST PERIOD OF FORECAST IS CLOUD COVER AND                     
WEATHER...WITH MODERATE ADJUSTMENTS TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT AND WIND               
GUSTS.                                                                          
THE 40KM RUC/NAM SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL QG                   
FORCING UP TO 850 MB...ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT                    
BISECTING MO FROM SW TO NEWD NEAR KSTL AT 16Z. A NARROW PLUME OF                
HIGH THETA-E AIR...IMPLIED THROUGH THE 925-700 MB MANDATORY LEVEL               
UA CHARTS AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF                 
1.29 INCHES...STRETCHES FROM MURRAY KY TO OWENSBORO KY THIS AM.                 
INSTABILITY IN THIS AXIS WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT ENOUGH SURFACE                  
BASED CAPE /400-500 J/KG IN THE 15Z RUN OF THE 40 KM RUC/ EXISTS THIS           
AFTERNOON OVER WRN KY AND SWRN IN TO WARRANT A CONTINUED MENTION                
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                
THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME RELAXATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCING               
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT IT REGAINS ITS STRENGTH BY MID                    
AFTEROON DURING PEAK HEATING AT THE SURFACE. IN THE GRID                        
FORECAST...ATTEMPTED TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER                 
SERN IL AT THAT TIME.                                                           
GOOD MIXING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH 850 MB.                  
GIVEN THE 40KT PLUS WINDS EVIDENT AT THE 12Z UA CHARTS AND PROGGED              
IN THE RUC SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON...I CANNOT RULE OUT LOCAL WIND               
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. A MANUAL EDIT IN THE TEXT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT                
FOR THE LOCAL WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
THE NAM/RUC OVER-COMPENSATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE                       
DEWPOINTS THAT OBSERVED THIS MORNING. I ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON                  
DEWPOINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT IN LINE WITH THE NAM/RUC ORIENTATION              
OF THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON APR 23 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POPS THROUGHOUT.                 
AN EXAMINATION OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWS A CONSENSUS               
FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP JUST ABOVE 700MB OVER THE ENTIRE AREA                       
TODAY...BUT MOST NOTABLY IN THE NORTH. IN ADDITION THE WEAKENING                
FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. SO DESPITE                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS OVERDONE IN THE GFS...THE              
LACK OF A FOCUS AND THE PRESENCE OF A CAP WILL PREVENT DEEP                     
CONVECTION TODAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION               
MAY DEVELOP AND BE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDER...SO WILL               
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE                 
TODAY. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NO DEVELOPMENT AT ALL.           
FOR TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WORK INTO              
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE EVENING...AND THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AS SHORT              
WAVE RIDGING PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. WITH A LOW-LEVEL                          
FOCUS...ALBEIT WEAK...LITTLE CAP AND EVER INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL            
KEEP 20 POPS WEST AND 30 POPS EAST...WHERE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE             
ARE MOST LIKELY TO INTERACT.                                                    
FOR TUESDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER THE             
AREA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS WET.                
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT THE ENTIRE AREA              
SHOULD BE UNCAPPED...ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH VERY             
WEAK WIND FIELDS...AND LONG...SKINNY CAPE...FEEL THAT ONLY SEVERE               
ISSUE ON TUESDAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN               
THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. WILL HAVE 60 POPS ALL BUT THE EVV                   
AREA...WHERE 50S SHOULD DO FINE.                                                
TUESDAY NIGHT HAS CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL. WITH THE WARM FRONT              
ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE NAM AND GFS...AND THE SURFACE              
LOW WELL WEST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE NO FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE               
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO MAJOR CAP TO                       
OVERCOME...IF SOME FORCING CAN LIFT THE LOW-LEVEL PARCELS. THE GFS              
IS AGRESSIVE IN PUSHING CONSIDERABLE QPF INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN              
HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z...BUT THE NAM KEEPS THE AREA MAINLY DRY.                
CONSENSUS POPS ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL...SO THERE IS NO WAY TO                
AVOID LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU ARE SURROUNDED BY HIGH POPS.            
WILL HAVE A 70 IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...A 50 NEAR KHOP AND 60S                   
ELSEWHERE. AM VERY CONCERNED THE THE NAM WILL BE RIGHT...BUT HPC IS             
GOING MORE TOWARD THE WET GFS SOLUTION.                                         
WIND FIELDS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ORGANIZED              
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HELICITY VALUES SUPPORTING THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. SO THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC SEEMS                     
REASONABLE...IF THE CONVECTION GETS HERE.                                       
WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION AS             
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE EASTERLY RIGHT TOWARD THE                     
AREA...WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY THE END OF            
THE DAY. THE UKMET SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...BUT MAYBE JUST A BIT                
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST DAY...SO WENT                
WITH CATEGORICALS IN THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH HIGH LIKELIES OVER               
WEST KENTUCKY. WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG...SO THE                  
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE LOOKS FINE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING                   
PROBLEMS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM.                                                
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARIES             
FINALLY SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES            
FROM THE WEST.  THURSDAY WILL HAVE 50 POPS EVERYWHERE...AND PROBABLY            
SHOULD HAVE LIKELIES AGAIN...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SLOWS TO A CRAWL               
OVER THE AREA. LI/S AND SI/S BOTH STILL NEGATIVE OVER THE ENTIRE                
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO KEPT FULL THUNDER MENTION                
BOTH PERIODS. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.                   
THE 00Z GFS DOES NOT SUPPORT THE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL               
LET THE DAY SHIFT SORT THAT OUT.                                                
AS FOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET FOR               
HIGHS TODAY...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET CONSENSUS FOR TONIGHT            
AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY GENERALLY WENT JUST A BIT              
ABOVE THE CONSENSUS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMITH/PS                                                                        
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT                
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING MOVING E OVER LAKE             
HURON. SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE                   
ROTATING SE ACROSS SRN HUDSON BAY/NRN ONTARIO. ANOTHER WEAKER                   
SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF JAMES BAY TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. TO             
THE W...A SHORTWAVE HAS DROPPED OUT OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES              
AND HAS CLOSED OFF OVER THE SW STATES. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE            
TO WATCH AS IT HEADS E ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.             
CLOSER TO HOME...STRATOCU HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY BREAKING UP OVER THE             
FCST AREA DURING THE LAST FEW HRS. MESOHIGH TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER              
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE/DIFFLUENT                    
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLR OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ONE            
LAST BATCH OF MOISTURE/STRATOCU IS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA NOW IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY TOWARD LAKE             
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
A QUIET PERIOD OF WX IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/TUE AND THRU MIDWEEK. SFC              
HIGH PRES RIDGE NOSING INTO THE PLAINS FROM CANADA NOW WILL DRIFT E             
TO THE GREAT LAKES TUE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLASSIC SPRING                   
MESOHIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN              
TUE AFTN. SO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN LAKE             
BREEZES WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS THE BOARD TUE. NAM AND ESPECIALLY                 
RUC13 HAVE A NICE DEPICTION OF THIS SCENARIO.                                   
LINGERING STRATOCU SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...               
LEAVING BEHIND CLR/MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT THRU TUE. DRYNESS OF              
AIRMASS SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT TUE. SO AFTER              
STRATOCU DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOME CI              
AT TIMES. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE GONE CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT                
RATHER THAN UNDERCUTTING SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL              
NOT BE IDEAL (COLUMN IS NOT ESPECIALLY DRY). DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS              
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING UPWARDS OF 800MB TUE AFTN. PER NAM/GFS             
FCST SOUNDINGS...THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 55-60F RANGE AWAY               
FROM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON)                                        
ABBREVIATED DUE TO EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTION                                        
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH MID/UPPER             
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY AOB GUIDANCE WITH GOOD                
RADIATONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.                                                  
THU INTO FRI...12Z GFS SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE 00Z/06Z             
RUNS AND BRINGS SRN STREAM MID LEVLE AND SFC LOW FROM THE MID MS                
VALLEY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL FGEN            
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REAMIN TO THE SOUTH THU BUT MAY BRING                
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE NORTHWARD SHIFT WAS             
SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN AND UKMET...NO PCPN WAS ADDED OVER THE SE             
HLF OF THE CWA YET FOR THU NIGHT BUT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE RECENT MDL            
TREND HOLDS UP.                                                                 
FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...MDLS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE                 
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS RESULTING IN WNW FLOW                
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER WITH                     
TIMING/DETAILS OF ANY SHRTWVS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES              
THAT MAY SUPPORT PCPN. LIMITED MDLS CONSENSUS FOR SHRTWV MOVING                 
THROUG NRN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT INTO UPPER MI COULD BRING -SHRA             
CHANCES SUN. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIMITED WHICH WOULD             
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR TSRA AND WOULD RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS             
IF ANY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (SHORT TERM)                                                            
JLB(LONG TERM)                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
413 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW                                              
SUNNY SKIES WERE EXPERIENCED BY MOST THIS MORNING AS A DRY SLOT                 
FOLLOWED THE INITIAL ACTIVITY THAT MOVED THROUGH AT DAYBREAK. THIS              
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE               
CWA BEFORE CLOUDS AGAIN DEVELOPED OVERHEAD. THIS FAST CLIMB IN                  
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWED FOR AN OPTIMUM            
MIXING ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST IN THE MID 40 TO UPPER 40S            
MPH. INSTABILITY EVOLVED AS EXPECTED WITH UPWARDS TO 500 JOULES/KG              
LAPS/SURFACE BASED AND RUC/MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ACROSS FAR                       
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS INSTABILITY RESIDED BETWEEN                   
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT. MAIN SYNOPTIC              
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND                  
WESTERN MICHIGAN...WITH AN OUTSTANDING FINE LINE EARLIER ON MKX                 
88D.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK TO NULL AND IS ATTRIBUTED TO LACK OF             
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY TRYING TO PROVIDE              
INITIATION. THE RATHER DEVELOPED WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S                   
SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND                    
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD.                                       
WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT PACKAGE ISSUANCE.  THE HIGHER WIND                 
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES FROM THE PASSING             
SHOWERS.  WITH THE WANE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS THE EASTWARD              
TRANSLATION TO THE LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTING A QUICK DYING OF THE                 
WINDS.  DIRECTIONS WILL VEER AT FIRST WESTERLY AND THEN                         
NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.                                               
EXPECTING NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION                    
TONIGHT.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP            
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT BUT THAT HAS LOOKED MINIMAL AT BEST               
THE PAST HOUR.  IN ADDITION STRONG DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE            
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN               
ATTM....FURTHER INHIBITING ANY UPDRAFT GROWTH AT THE MID LEVELS.                
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTROL TOMORROW BRINGING A QUIET            
PLEASANT DAY. A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES                   
ALLOWING APRIL SUN TO WARM THE AREA INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.  WINDS             
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT NORTHERLY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                       
THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                             
NORTHERN STREAM 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST                   
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A BIT OF             
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A LOW FROM THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...MODEL CONSENSUS            
SHOWS RIDGE GETTING NUDGED TEMPORARILY NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO             
WEDNESDAY AS AN OVERRUNNING FRONT BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS               
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SOMEWHAT GAINING CONTROL               
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE AGAIN RETREATING                    
THURSDAY.                                                                       
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE GETTING             
SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WORKING BACK            
TO THE NORTH THURSDAY. 925 MB MOISTURE SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS.                  
AS FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA ASCENT...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS                   
INCREASING ASCENT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY               
SOUTH...SOME INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY. 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR                     
CONVERGENCE FAIRLY GOOD BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT SOUTH                    
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE                       
OCCASIONALLY SLIGHT AT BEST UNTIL BECOMING MORE DEFINED                         
THURSDAY...850 MB CONVERGENCE ALSO MOST PREVALENT ON THURSDAY. 290K             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF A FEW UBAR/SEC...WITH SUITABLY LOW                         
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SEEN BY BOTH NAM AND GFS LATE                  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THEN BACKING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.            
STILL SEE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO NORTHERN EXTENT                        
OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS                   
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CONCEIVABLY SUPPRESS RAINFALL            
TO EVEN THE OHIO BORDER. WILL...HOWEVER...PLAY THE ODDS AND STRIATE             
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FROM SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH TO LIKELY             
SOUTH...THEN BACK OFF COVERAGE AND POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GO                  
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT AGAIN THURSDAY.                                          
AFTER THURSDAY...                                                               
WEAKENING EJECTING SOUTHWESTERN 500 MB LOW/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE            
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS PER MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING GFS ENSEMBLE               
MEANS...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO MAINLY THE NORTHERN LAKES            
REGION FRIDAY. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY MORE IN WAY OF OCCASIONAL                 
IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE BROAD PLAINS RIDGE INTO LAKES                          
REGION...ESPECIALLY ABOUT SUNDAY. DGEX/GFS DIG ENERGY DOWN ACROSS               
THE EASTERN LAKES REGION MONDAY.                                                
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT             
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES...BUT THERE             
EXISTS LOTS OF MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD AS TO TRACK OF THIS LOW AND                
THEREFORE HOW VIGOROUSLY MOISTURE AND SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE NORTH.               
WILL COVER BY MENTIONING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND                   
FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH BY                   
MONDAY AS PER MODEL CONSENSUS...SO AM CONTINUING SHOWERS/THUNDER                
MENTION FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 206 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION                 
CHANCES INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING INTO THE LOWER               
40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. GREATER MIXING OF               
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HAS OCCURRED UNDER THE SHOWER/UPDRAFT                      
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY THIS               
AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH BACKING FURTHER TO THE               
NORTHWEST AFTER 00UTC. THUS FAR...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAIN                    
LIMITED WITH RAINFALL RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH IN SAGINAW AND BAD                
AX. DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES CLOSER TO THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN                  
LOWER PENINSULA. LATEST LAPS DATA HAS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES/KG                   
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. EXPECTING A QUICK END TO THE SHOWER               
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FEEDING OFF THAT LIMITED ENERGY             
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROVIDING THE FOCUS WILL                
SLIDE ON TO THE EAST. AN ADDITIONAL LIFTING MECHANISM FOR                       
PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER              
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF                        
RECOVERY/DEVELOPMENT WITH EVEN REDUCED INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA.                
IN ADDITION TO VEERING NORTHWESTERLY...WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN                  
CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO CARRY OUT THE                  
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD..EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AS             
GUIDANCE DRY ADVECTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.                       
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
AVIATION...CB                                                                   
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
254 PM MDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
19Z SURFACE ANLAYSIS SHOWS A 1004MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER SE CO WITH             
A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE E PLAINS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP            
SHOWS A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EJECTING NE ACROSS TX AHEAD OF            
AN UPPER LOW SPINNING EAST ACROSS AZ/UT BORDER. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT              
WIND PLOT SHOWS A 100-120 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH              
THROUGH SOCA ACROSS AZ AND INTO NW CORNER OF NM. WINDS HAVE ALSO                
BEEN INCREASING STEADILY ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER JET             
TRANSLATES EAST EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN THE WIND            
ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST           
WINDS WILL LIKLEY PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS LATE THIS EVENING. 18Z            
RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A SWATH OF 40-50 KNOT 700MB WINDS WITH SUPPORT           
FROM 70-80 KNOT 500MB JET CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH TUES            
MORNING.                                                                        
12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...15Z SREF/12Z MREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE                
500MB PATTERN THROUGH WED MORNING. 560DM H5 LOW AND ASSOCIATED -4C              
COLD POOL WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY 06Z TUE THEN                
OVER NE NM BY 12Z TUE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE                 
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND              
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER                   
ELEVATIONS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD POOL MOVES EAST THROUGH                
THE NORTHERN MTNS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS TENDED TO VEER MORE TO              
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DUE TO SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH                
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH TUE MORNING...SO THINKING SNOW ACCUMS WILL                
AVERAGE 1-3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HPC SNOW ACCUM GRAPHICS               
STILL INDICATING 2-4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN MTNS MAINLY FROM TUE                
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE UP ONCE AGAIN                
TUE WITH ADVISORIES LIKELY IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG AND                 
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL ACCOMPANY THE                   
WINDY CONDITIONS AS MIN RH VALUES HOVER BTWN 10 AND 15 PERCENT.                 
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY WITH                
STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS                
WILL BE COOL IN THE NORTHEAST WED AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES               
SOUTH DOWN THE FAR E PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS                 
THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW THROUGH THURS. A WEAK                   
DISTURBANCE WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE SE OVER THE NE PLAINS FRIDAY                  
WITH A COLD FRONT COOLING TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL. A RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SW CONUS BY THE END OF THE                  
WEEK ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  39  63  35  69 /  40  20   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  33  61  27  68 /  30  20   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  34  61  30  69 /  30  20   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  39  71  40  78 /  10   5   0   0              
CHAMA...........................  28  46  24  58 /  60  60  10   5              
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  56  32  63 /  30  30   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................  26  39  24  48 /  50  60  30   5              
TAOS............................  37  52  30  61 /  40  40  10   5              
SANTA FE........................  35  56  32  64 /  30  30   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  38  59  35  66 /  20  20   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  41  61  37  70 /  30  30   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  65  43  71 /  10  10   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  67  41  72 /  10  10   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  39  62  41  70 /  20  20   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  64  42  72 /  20  10   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  48  70  44  75 /   5  10   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  34  59  34  65 /  30  20   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  40  61  37  67 /   5  10   5   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  68  43  70 /   0   5   0   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  44  60  39  64 /   0   5   0   0              
RATON...........................  37  53  35  59 /  20  40  30  20              
LAS VEGAS.......................  39  59  33  63 /  10  20  10   5              
ROY.............................  42  59  38  59 /   5  10  20   5              
CLAYTON.........................  45  59  37  57 /   5  30  30  20              
SANTA ROSA......................  48  69  44  70 /   5  10  10   5              
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  68  43  66 /   5  10  10   5              
FORT SUMNER.....................  48  71  45  71 /   0   5  10   5              
CLOVIS..........................  48  70  42  69 /   5   5  10   5              
PORTALES........................  48  72  43  70 /   5   5  10   5              
ROSWELL.........................  52  79  47  76 /   0   5   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                  
ZONES...NMZ106>108.                                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                    
ZONES...NMZ005-008>012-014-015-018-019.                                         
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...                 
NMZ108.                                                                         
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...             
NMZ016-017-026.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
204 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z, BUT CONDITIONS                
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH EARLY EVENING            
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOUTHWEST                
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO                   
25-30 KNOTS. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE INCLUDED A TEMPO PERIOD BTW                   
23Z-04Z FOR KRME/KSYR AND BTW 01Z-04Z FOR KELM/KITH/KBGM. LEFT                  
KAVP DRY FOR NOW AS BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS NRN AREAS. BEHIND                    
FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BTW 04Z-07Z WITH CIGS                   
AROUND 4K FT. BY 13Z, CLOUDS WILL SCATTERED OUT AT 4-5K FT WITH                 
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. RRM                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1123 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
BUSY DAY WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. 5 SPOT FORECASTS FOR PRESCRIBED              
BURNS SO FAR. RED FLAG WARNING FOR PA DUE TO LOWER WIND CRITERIA.               
SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN NY BUT WIND CRITERIA IS 25 MPH. UPDATE TO                 
BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY INTO 70S                  
WITH LOW AND MID 80S EXPECTED. REMOVED POPS FROM THE EARLY AFTN                 
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND RUC. SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TS LATE AFTN                  
INTO TONIGHT. LIS CLOSE TO ZERO AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GOOD FOR              
A FEW HOURS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS                   
LACKING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING ONLY INTO THE U40S.                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 254 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                     
WAVE MOVING THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE WILL               
CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT PULLS NORTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF THE              
FRONT HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY YIELDING CONTROL OVER THE MID                     
ATLANTIC STATES. THE INCREASED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COMPETING                   
SYSTEMS WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.                   
WITH THE AIR STILL DRY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, AND ONLY A                   
MARGINAL RISE IN DEW POINTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY                
FLOW, EXPECT THE WINDS WILL CAUSE A GREATER DANGER FOR FIRE. WE                 
HAVE RAISED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF OUR PA COUNTIES, AS IT                
APPEARS THE WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET BY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY               
FUELS ALREADY IN PLACE, AND THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED BRUSH FIRES                
REPORTED PREVIOUS 2 DAYS.                                                       
THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE ONCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH               
OF OUR REGION, INTO CANADA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A                      
THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN AREAS OF OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON,                
BUT BELIEVE THIS THREAT WILL BE FINISHED ONCE THE SUN SETS AND                  
INSTABILITY SLACKENS.                                                           
WITH DRY AIR PROGGED TO RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WE WENT WITH              
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY AND ALSO BOOSTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.             
THE NEXT CHC FOR SUSTAINED PRECIP APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WHEN A                
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ALONG A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE                   
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST PA. DJP                                               
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. OVERRUNNING RAIN MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AND              
STAYING ESPECIALLY IN PA UNTIL SFC LOW MOVES TO THE COAST FRIDAY.               
ON SATURDAY TO SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON NW FLOW WITH                
SHOWERS. FOR THE EXTENDED WET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.              
WITH THE LONG PERIOD OF RAIN AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED MOST                  
LOCATIONS COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES. NE PA COULD GET MORE AND WILL                
NEED TO BE WATCHED SINCE 2 INCHES STARTS GETTING AROUND FLASH                   
FLOOD AND FLOOD GUIDANCE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...&&                                                                         
$$                                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
334 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
PREFRNTL TROF AND ASSOCD -SHRA ACTIVITY HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT                
OF SE FCST AREA ATTM. ADDL -SHRA BEGINNING TO DVLP AHEAD OF COLD                
FRONT SITUATED FROM CNTRL LWR MICHIGAN SW INTO NORTH CNTRL INDIANA              
AND SRN ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE PTLY CLDY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH                  
TEMPS WELL INTO THE M/U70S. BNDRY LYR WAS WELL MIXED THIS AFTN                  
WITH GUSTS UP ABV 30MPH FROM THE SW.                                            
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING COLD FRONT SLOWLY              
SE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG. SO FAR THIS AFTN...WARM DRY BULGE OF               
AIR ABV 800MB HAS KEPT LWR ATMOSPHERE CAPPED. LO LVL MOISTURE                   
CONTINUES TO STREAM NE INTO REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPTS               
APPCH 60 DEG IN SW FCST AREA. COMBINATION OF THIN PLUME OF                      
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO REGION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS WEAK               
MID LVL S/WV PASSES ACRS LWR GRT LKS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT                       
CONVECTION TO DVLP OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRNTL               
BNDRY. 12Z GFS/RUC BOTH INDCG MUCAPES APPCH 1000 J/KG DURING THE                
EVNG HOURS. WHILE BETTER MID/UPR LVL FORCING HAS ALREADY PULLED                 
EAST OF REGION WITH TROF...0-6KM BL SHEAR VALUES WILL HOLD BTWN                 
30-40KTS THIS EVNG WITH HELICITIES AT NEAR 200 M2/S2. THIS WOULD                
LEND ITSELF TO PROMOTING SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR LATE AFTN/EVNG                
HOURS ONCE CAP HAS ERODED...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TO APPCH SVR                
LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFT MIDNIGHT AS FRNTL BNDRY SAGS                   
SLOWLY SOUTH THRU FCST AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED 40-50 POPS FOR ENTIRE              
FCST AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME INTO                 
FAIR AGREEMENT ON STALLING FRNTL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO                   
RIVER ON TUES MRNG AS BNDRY BECOMES PARALLEL TO MEAN UPR FLO AND                
RUNS INTO STRONG HI PRES RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. HAVE MAINTAINED LO                
CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON TUES DUE TO CLOSE              
PROXIMITY OF FRNTL BNDRY. OVERALL FORCING THOUGH IS FAIRLY WEAK.                
DEEP UPR LO AND ASSOCD SFC LO WILL EJECT INTO WESTERN PLAINS BY                 
TUES EVNG. FRNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO FCST                  
AREA TUES NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO MOVEMENT OF PLAINS SYSTEM. THIS                  
WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX FOR                 
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNTL BNDRY HANGS IN THE OH VLY.               
SFC WAVE DVLPS ALONG FRNTL BNDRY OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE                 
TUES NIGHT AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACRS FCST AREA. ISENT LIFT INCREASES               
AFT MIDNIGHT AND STRONG LO LVL FORCING ENHANCES ACRS REGION. RAIN               
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THRU THE NIGHT WITH                   
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE               
TUES NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY INTO WED AS SFC WAVE MOVES ACRS THE OH              
VLY AND PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL               
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE CONTINUED                   
MOVEMENT OF THE FRNTL BNDRY LOCATION PER EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF                 
MODEL DATA. HAVE PLAYED HIGHEST POPS AND CONSEQUENTLY HEAVIEST                  
PCPN ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA AS FEEL FRNTL BNDRY WILL PROGRESS TO                
NEAR I-70 CORRIDOR PER GFS/ECMWF/SREF SOLNS. SOUTH OF FRNTL                     
BNDRY...PCPN LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED. HAVE CAT POPS                         
NORTH/CENTRAL AND LKLY POPS SOUTH THRU WED AFTN. WILL HIGHLIGHT                 
HVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH HWOILN.                                                 
LO LVL FORCING WEAKENS BY LATE WED AFTN AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE              
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. MAY SEE A BIT OF A DECREASE IN PCPN                     
COVERAGE AS FRNTL BNDRY DROPS BACK TO SOUTH WED NIGHT. MAIN SFC LO              
ASSOCD WITH PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VLY LATE               
WED NIGHT. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SHIFTED TOWARDS A                     
SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THIS LOW AS IT APPCHS FOR                    
THURS. EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE WILL FILL BACK IN ACRS REGION                       
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURS AS FRNTL BNDRY MEANDERS ACRS FCST AREA.                  
TEMPS...TRENDED CLOSER TO WARMER END OF GUID TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND              
TUES WITH FRNTL BNDRY NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TOO FAR SOUTH OF FCST                
AREA. TEMPS FROM TUES NIGHT ON BECOME HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION              
OF FRNTL BNDRY. TRENDED TEMPS MUCH CLOSER TO MAV AS GFS SOLN                    
BRINGING BNDRY FURTHER NORTH ON WED/WED NIGHT. COULD VERY EASILY                
BE A 15-20 DEG TEMP SPREAD ACRS FCST AREA HOWEVER ON WED.                       
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY                
MORNING...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF DISCONTINUITY WITH ITS                
EVENTUAL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  00Z GFSENS MEAN AND 06Z GFS               
TOOK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER...WHILE 12Z GFS AND NAM HAVE             
SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACKING INTO NORTHERN OHIO.                 
FORMER SCENARIO KEEPS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO                 
RIVER ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE LATTER BRINGS IT AT LEAST INTO OUR                
CENTRAL CWA IF NOT INTO NORTHERN OHIO.  ECMWF SUPPORTS A SOLUTION               
THAT LEANS TOWARD TODAYS 12Z MODELS...SO FORECAST AT THE BEGINNING              
OF THE EXTENDED IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND                    
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR CONTINUITY. THIS BRINGS THE WARM FRONT            
INTO OUR CENTRAL CWA ON THURS AND SLOWS DOWN THE LOW BY ABOUT 6-12              
HOURS.  THUS...INCREASED TEMPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF ON                      
THURSDAY...AND LINGERED POPS LONGER THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY TO            
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER TREND OF THE MODELS.                                     
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE            
BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL US.  NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL            
BE WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.                                                 
HAWBLITZEL                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
SCT-BKN FAIR WX CU IS FOUND BETWEEN THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IN             
THE PRE-FRONTAL UPPER TROF AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER               
WRN ILL. ONCE WINDS UPSTREAM SWITCH TO THE W AFTER THE FRONT...IT IS            
NOTED THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS IN             
THE COLD POOL BEHIND IT.                                                        
BELIEVE THAT UNTIL THE FRONT IS OVERTOP OF TAF SITES THE RAIN AND               
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF. TRIED TO MITIGATE THE PRECIP THIS            
EVENING TO A 3 OR 4 HOUR PERIOD AND THEN LOWERED CIGS SIGNIFICANTLY             
IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.                                                    
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFTS...I SPED UP               
THE TURN TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW               
VERSUS THE MODELS HOLDING IT OFF UNTIL DAYTIME TOMORROW.                        
FRONT IS LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE            
SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY BUILT UP AHEAD OF IT TODAY TO SPARK AN EARLY            
ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING.                                               
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
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