FXUS04 KWBC 030627
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 AM EDT SAT JUL 03 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 03/1200 UTC THRU JUL 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
UPR MS VALLEY SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...
MODELS LIFT NEG TILTED CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER NE KS NEWD
TOWARD THE LOWER GT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS WITH SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES...THOUGH THE FASTER GFS IS OVERALL
THE PREFERRED MODEL CHOICE IN TIMING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER SUCH THAT A DECENT
COMMA HEAD BAND OF MDT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PCPN IS EXPECTED
ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY ALONG AND TO THE LEFT OF THE 7H LOW
TRACK. SECOND AREA OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED ACRS
PARTS OF KY/TN PSBLY EXTENDING WWD INTO NRN AR WHERE DECENT
LOW LEVEL INFLOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO FEED IN BEHIND THE
MAIN UPR S/WV AND TRACK EWD WITH MID LEVEL FLOW.  THE GFS
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS AREA VERY WELL AT
ALL..WHILE AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM THE EDGE SEEMS TO GO
TOWARD THE ETA.  INCREASED AMOUNTS OVER BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
OVER PARTS OF WRN TN/KY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS ON SATL/RADAR
ACRS AR/OK.    

CNTL PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK S/WV ENERGY LIFTG OUT ACRS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS AHEAD OF SWD MOVING COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT.  ETA SHOWS SOME ORGANIZED CNVTV COMPLEX AND GREATER
THAN 1.5 INCH PCPN MAX ACRS CNTL NEB DVLPG IN LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE IT SHOWS K VALUES APCHG 40 LATER
THIS AFTN AND EVE OVER SRN SD/NRN NE.  THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW
NEARLY AS STG A LOW LEVEL JET DVLPG ACRS THE CNTL HI PLAINS
AND WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO BE HANDLING TROF TO THE EAST
BETTER THAN THE ETA...CAN'T QUITE BUY INTO THE VERY
AGGRESSIVE ETA AT THIS TIME...SO CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY.

SERN U.S...
SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK EWD BEHIND S/WV ALONG THE
CNTL GULF COAST...KEEPING FOCUS FOR DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY
MAINLY FROM SE LA EWD INTO THE SE U.S. AND FL.  WEAK SHEAR
AXIS AND ASSOCD WEAK SFC REFLECTION MAY AID TSTM DVLPMENT
ACRS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTN..WHERE THE ETA LOOKED A
LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.  

NWRN U.S....
HT FALLS ASSOCD WITH WEAK S/WV PUSHING ACRS THE PAC NW IS
EXPECTED TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHWRS ACRS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION..WITH SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AMOUNTS PSBL ACRS PARTS OF ERN
MT AS UPR ENERGY INTERACTS WITH LEE TROF AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET SAT NIGHT.  GFS MAY HAVE SOME FEEDBACK GOING ON
HERE..BUT EVEN THE ETA SHOWS K VALUES INCREASING ABOVE 33
OVER NE MT ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CNVGC AND
INSTABILITY..SO FEEL THIS JUSTIFIES INCLUDING SOME .50 INCH
AMOUNTS ACRS THIS AREA.

...NAME AREA....
LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT SHOW ANY SGFNT CHANGES IN OVERALL
PATTERN ACRS THE NAME AREA FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.  A MEAN UPR
RIDGE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TIER 1 AREA DURG DAY 1. SOME
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY AGAIN DVLP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT PCPN AMTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



                                   
 
24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 224065 229064 234066 237068 240069 245071 250069 253066 
      253063 251060 249057 247054 245050 242046 240042 239039 
      236036 231034 228034 
 0.01 546854 547849 546844 543840 534833 531833 527836 524839 
      521840 521833 523815 526802 525798 522795 518793 509790 
      506794 503796 501801 498812 495826 492839 490850 487856 
      485858 471846 456833 448825 440817 435815 429816 421818 
      416817 400805 395800 394789 398789 398786 395786 391782 
      382778 375773 370771 368768 366765 363758 362753 360747 
      357740 353738 348741 342744 338751 329775 324783 320788 
      315791 247801 243804 241807 239817 240823 242827 245829 
      248829 252831 258830 263827 269828 273830 283835 285838 
      288845 290858 289866 286876 285886 284892 284897 284903 
      285910 289918 294919 297918 302914 305910 308905 313897 
      316887 322875 326875 328876 332880 333885 333890 331902 
      330927 331936 335947 346959 350963 356962 360959 362955 
      362951 364945 366934 369932 371932 372935 375938 378945 
      383954 387959 392962 397965 401969 413968 413972 411977 
      406988 402998 402004 400011 399024 402035 408042 415046 
      423044 429041 433045 436051 440056 440060 438063 438070 
      439083 436088 431091 427096 426099 426103 429108 430114 
      422121 415131 411136 408139 400143 394150 392156 394162 
      396166 399166 402164 408164 416161 420159 422153 424147 
      427141 429144 429149 429155 433160 437162 443165 447170 
      451175 455176 464170 469166 473166 481169 487180 495187 
      500191 505196 510203 514209 518212 524214 529214 532215 
      535207 537195 538186 541177 543167 547153 548144 550131 
      550116 548108 547102 545101 539102 536100 533098 531093 
      526082 520073 516068 512065 509061 505054 499045 493037 
      485029 476028 470028 465029 461031 458027 456018 454010 
      453005 455000 467978 474964 481955 485949 488947 498940 
      504938 510937 519935 522934 526930 530926 532922 534920 
      539910 543896 546875 545861 546854 
 0.01 480670 475663 470659 464654 457650 451651 446655 441660 
      437667 437673 434676 431683 431700 436703 438706 442705 
      444708 448710 454708 460706 465702 466698 468697 471698 
      476698 481691 482683 480670 
 0.01 488215 488213 485210 479209 473211 470210 467213 464213 
      461216 452214 446215 443217 436223 434225 436228 441228 
      450226 459224 468222 478221 485219 488215 
 0.01 413068 413064 411062 407057 402055 395057 390059 384059 
      378061 372061 369062 367064 369067 371072 373086 375094 
      381094 383094 386090 388084 389082 391083 401079 410075 
      413068 
 0.01 399185 395180 392180 389183 385186 382189 377187 373188 
      373191 376195 381199 383201 387201 390198 393191 397188 
      399185 
 0.01 363132 362128 362126 361125 359121 357118 355117 354116 
      351114 349113 347116 348118 349120 350124 351125 352127 
      353131 356133 359133 362133 363132 
 0.01 352037 351030 348027 343024 337024 334025 332025 329028 
      327032 327035 327039 329040 335038 338038 341038 344040 
      346041 349040 352037 
 0.01 336058 333055 330054 327050 324049 320045 315043 310044 
      305046 302049 301052 305054 310053 314055 319058 321059 
      327059 333059 336058 
 0.25 510871 509867 507864 504862 500862 494868 489877 485885 
      480891 478892 475890 473886 467870 466866 463862 460859 
      456857 445851 435848 429846 423844 410839 400835 389832 
      375832 367836 361840 356845 352850 348863 345877 343893 
      344901 346907 348911 350916 350926 352939 353943 355947 
      358941 360925 362918 365914 368912 373912 379914 383919 
      387928 391934 395937 399941 402947 406954 409955 414955 
      423953 431949 434942 439936 442932 449928 455926 463923 
      462927 459936 455948 457951 459950 464948 469943 472941 
      475938 485926 490920 494913 502899 508883 510875 510871 
 0.25 522120 520100 520094 518088 514080 512076 507073 502068 
      496059 491053 486052 482055 476060 472063 470067 467076 
      465106 469109 473105 476094 484092 491086 493085 499085 
      503086 504091 506103 509114 510120 513124 519124 522120 
 0.25 433016 433012 431009 430009 428007 427009 426013 425015 
      425017 425021 426023 429024 431020 432019 433016 
 0.25 377791 368784 364780 359773 357766 353765 346768 343771 
      339776 337781 334787 332792 330798 330801 333804 342805 
      349803 354804 362813 366817 370817 373813 373808 373804 
      374800 375795 377791 
 0.25 311861 310853 308845 306838 303831 297823 295825 293823 
      288819 285815 281813 272806 269804 266803 263805 261809 
      263814 267818 271820 281823 290825 295827 299833 298845 
      297851 298857 297869 297876 295883 296896 298899 299898 
      303893 306883 310872 311861 
 0.25 226050 228051 229052 230051 230048 229048 226046 
 0.50 496895 495893 492892 486895 481900 479904 476909 474915 
      472920 470926 473927 476924 478922 481918 486913 489910 
      491906 496900 496895 
 0.50 493072 491070 490068 488066 485066 482066 480068 479068 
      477072 479075 482076 485076 488077 491074 493072 
 0.50 467901 467894 466887 463872 461867 458866 451867 425856 
      418855 409852 399847 391845 384845 375847 367852 361855 
      355862 352868 350876 349885 348894 349898 351902 355907 
      361905 366904 373900 382897 389898 396902 400908 404916 
      410922 416927 417931 417937 417944 421945 425943 431937 
      435931 440925 456917 463911 467903 467901 
 0.50 365793 362789 358785 356782 353776 350775 348776 345780 
      343785 340790 340794 341797 343797 348794 354793 357795 
      361797 364796 365793 
 0.50 306866 306863 305862 305863 304867 306867 306866 
 0.50 273816 272813 270810 269811 270814 272816 273816 
 1.00 461894 461890 461885 460882 457878 451883 448886 443889 
      436896 428905 424900 421891 418892 418897 422903 423910 
      424918 426930 429928 432924 441917 450912 454909 458904 
      461894 
 1.00 370873 370870 368868 365871 363874 362876 361878 360880 
      362881 364880 367878 369875 370873 
 1.50 458887 455886 452889 450891 447893 446895 445899 446903 
      449905 452903 453901 454898 455896 456894 458891 458887 
      458887  
 
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