FXUS04 KWBC 090643
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
242 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 09/1200 UTC THRU SEP 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 


...DAY 1...

...CONCERNING THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES...

THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES ARE NOW OVR THE CNTRL APLCNS AND WILL
TREK ENEWD PER MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE LYING FM
THE UPPER OH VLY ENEWD THRU NEW ENG.  VERY HVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED BY DEEP-
LAYERED SLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BNDRY AS WELL AS VERY FVBL
DIV ALOFT ASOCTD WITH RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  BOTH
THE 0000 UTC ETA AND GFS QPFS CONTD TO FCST VERY HVY RAINS
INVOF THE BNDRY..AS THEY HAVE FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS...LENDING A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS REGARD. 
MEANWHILE...PREFER THE ETAS HEAVIER QPF IN THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BNDRY OVR SRN NEW ENG AND THE MID
ATLC STATES WHERE CNVCTV BANDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DVLP
IN THE DEEP-LAYERED MSTR.  BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDC A FVBL
MID AND UPPER LVL FORCING WILL BE AVBL TO SUPPORT THE SHWR
DVLPMNT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS.

...FLORIDA...

BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDC A CHANNEL OF HI RH ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...ASOCTD WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES
...TRAILING SWD ACROSS THE STATE.   BOTH THE ETA AND GFS QPFS
INDC SHWRS WILL OCCUR ALONG THIS AXIS WHICH AT THE MOMENT
SEEMS REASONABLE.

...DESERT SW...

AN AREA OF HIER MSTR PER MODEL RH FIELDS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA WILL BE IN PLACE HERE TO SUPPORT THE
DVLPMNT OF SCTD SHWRS WHICH WILL BE TRIGGERED BY PIECES OF
SHRTWV ENERGY CLIMBING THE SOUTHWEST UPPER RIDGE.

...NRN PLAINS...

A SHRTWV ENERGY EMBEDDED IN FAST WLY FLOW AND ITS ASOCTD
CDFNT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SCTD SHWRS ACROSS ND THIS EVNG AND
TNGT.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 502633 500630 496623 489618 485617 480618 471620 462624 
      453636 449641 443644 436648 424665 419670 414674 404677 
      401678 395681 390686 388690 386701 384711 380718 372727 
      369730 365729 359731 354736 351740 348744 345748 339753 
      323765 313771 306776 296782 288788 280794 275797 270797 
      262795 259795 254797 252799 248803 247806 250809 253812 
      257816 256826 255835 257847 258853 261858 268861 273860 
      277857 281850 290835 303820 316807 323801 330804 337806 
      342805 348803 354801 358798 361795 366791 372789 377789 
      379790 378792 373797 366804 359809 357813 357819 359826 
      362829 367830 371829 385824 394823 402823 407823 413821 
      424816 435811 440807 445801 449799 453793 462783 477768 
      481764 484760 490750 501728 505721 507715 511701 514689 
      514675 513669 513663 510655 507648 503641 501639 502633 
 0.01 540207 539197 538191 536186 528171 519158 513152 509146 
      501141 499139 495136 492139 490143 492153 492159 490162 
      487165 485169 492184 495194 498201 506205 512210 517218 
      522225 524232 528236 532234 533232 
 0.01 519269 520260 518251 515236 513227 511224 508221 504217 
      500210 496206 489203 480208 476210 474213 474219 475221 
      489228 496240 499245 501252 507267 510273 511275 514276 
      519269 
 0.01 522934 521929 519927 513923 508923 502925 495930 491936 
      484949 478964 476973 476982 461009 458016 457024 457030 
      459032 464036 469033 474028 476029 475031 473039 470047 
      469051 469057 470060 474060 479057 483051 486044 491028 
      494024 498024 505022 509016 510007 509996 507987 513973 
      516965 518957 520947 522938 522934 
 0.01 496264 496257 494251 492246 490242 487240 484240 481242 
      478238 476236 474237 475242 480245 486248 488252 491257 
      495263 496264 
 0.01 471973 465966 461963 456960 450961 442968 437976 432986 
      429997 428001 430004 432004 439999 442995 444989 447984 
      449981 455978 461977 466976 469976 471973 
 0.01 435968 434964 433962 430961 430960 427960 424961 422962 
      421963 418964 416966 414968 413969 412972 413976 414978 
      416979 417980 420980 423979 426978 428977 431975 434972 
      435968 
 0.01 367136 365127 361121 351113 343106 338111 335114 335119 
      339133 332143 328148 326150 324155 326161 328165 330166 
      336165 342162 345156 351151 357150 361143 367136 
 0.01 310882 310875 307872 302874 300877 293883 289885 288888 
      288900 289910 292922 296928 298927 302924 305915 305903 
      306893 308886 310882 
 0.01 230988 236993 242997 248998 258999 262998 267996 271992 
      278979 283972 288967 292961 294954 295946 292944 289945 
      286948 281949 279944 277942 272943 266947 253956 247960 
      238963 232965 
 0.25 506666 504657 499649 496644 491638 486634 481632 476632 
      471634 461639 449650 443655 437661 429671 418680 405688 
      400694 397699 392710 387721 381732 375742 370747 368749 
      359746 356748 351753 346762 339772 342775 346772 356767 
      365762 369761 376760 386758 396758 399759 401761 404766 
      412777 421798 428797 432797 442790 448786 454780 463771 
      472761 481750 488739 494727 500713 503699 506690 507681 
      507671 506666 
 0.25 531214 532205 530199 527193 524188 521182 518179 516176 
      513174 510174 507179 509187 511193 513197 516201 518206 
      522211 526215 529217 531214 
 0.25 298809 295806 291805 281807 276809 271812 267818 264827 
      263832 265838 268843 271843 275841 278837 283831 289824 
      294817 298809 
 0.25 271964 270961 265961 260963 257965 253967 250970 247972 
      245976 245978 248982 251983 257984 262981 264979 267977 
      269973 271967 271964 
 0.50 502665 500659 497654 491647 485641 480639 473639 468641 
      464644 449655 437668 429676 421683 413688 405695 400703 
      397711 392726 392734 393740 396745 409745 414749 416758 
      417763 420768 424776 427788 431790 436789 444784 451776 
      458770 463764 470756 476750 482742 487734 490726 494716 
      500698 502689 502679 502665 
 0.50 285817 284816 281816 278816 275817 272818 270820 268823 
      268824 268827 269830 270833 272834 274833 277831 278830 
      279829 281826 283823 283821 284819 285817 
 0.50 266968 266967 263967 260968 259969 258970 255972 255973 
      255976 256977 259977 261976 262975 264974 265971 266969 
      266968 
 1.00 497670 496664 493660 488656 477652 472651 468652 465654 
      453663 446667 439673 434680 429686 425691 418696 411702 
      408708 408716 411720 413725 416728 420731 432732 434735 
      433743 429758 429762 430767 432772 433778 435781 438781 
      442779 445776 454765 475742 481734 484727 491711 495697 
      497688 498680 497670 
 1.50 494678 492668 490665 487663 482664 477663 473661 468661 
      464664 460667 451679 443687 441692 443696 439699 431710 
      431716 433718 437721 441729 443732 443738 441744 438748 
      436755 435761 438775 441775 446770 452761 460750 466746 
      471740 478731 484719 489707 492695 494683 494678 
 2.00 488683 487676 484670 476670 473670 469672 465677 463681 
      449696 444704 442710 443714 445716 447722 450728 449732 
      444754 442761 441766 441769 442769 448762 453753 458745 
      460742 465740 473731 479722 484714 487704 488683 
 2.00 463713 462713 460715 457717 456718 458719 461720 461719 
      462719 463715 463713  
 
8$$