FXUS04 KWBC 161851
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
150 PM EST TUE MAR 16 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 18/0000 UTC THRU MAR 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 


DAY 1...

NERN U.S...


THE ETA...GFS AND NGM HAVE ALL TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SFC LOW MOVG NEWD TONIGHT OFF THE MID ATL COAST AND TOWARD THE
CAN MARITIMES.  THE ETA'S TREND OVER THE PAST TWO RUNS HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN TOWARD THE PREV RUNS OF THE GFS WHICH HAD A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN THAN
THE ETA.  QPF WISE...FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT FOR DAY 1 WITH PCPN OVR
THE
NERN U.S. GIVEN THE CONVERGING SOLNS.  STRONG UVVS EXPECTED TO
CONT INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE VERY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TO SFC
SYSTEMS....WITH GOOD AGRMNT WITH .25-.50" AMTS FROM NRN PA...MOST
OF
NY INTO SRN TO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND.   SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
NEW ENGLAND...SAVE FAR SRN AND SERN NEW ENGLAND.  SNOW ALSO WL
BE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVR CNTRL TO NRN PA INTO NEARLY ALL OF NY
STATE...EXPECT LONG ISLAND.

FL...

CONVECTION CONTS TO BE WELL DEFINED WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN ERN
U.S. FRONT IN THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS ACRS FL.  THIS MOISTURE AXIS
EXPECTED TO SINK SWD THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY PCPN AMTS LIKELY FOR S FL.  MANUAL DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD
THE HEAVIER NGM GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CURRENT RADAR.  THE
ETA AND GFS APPEAR TO BE DEFICIENT WITH QPF AMTS.  

NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY....

TWO AREAS OF QUICK MOVG HT FALLS EXPECTED TO PUSH ESEWD IN THE
NWLY FLOW ACRS SRN CAN/NRN TIER OF THE U.S.     OVERALL...LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH ONLY LIGHT
PCPN AMTS EXPECTED ACRS THESE AREAS DAY 1.

PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...

THRU DAY 1....HT FALLS MOVG ACRS SRN CAN WL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES.  SUBSEQUENTLY...ONLY SOME LIGHT PCPN
EXPECTED ON THE SRN FRINGES OF THESE HT FALLS FOR THESE REGIONS. 
STRONGER HT FALLS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE PAC NW DAY 2.  


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV




DAY 2...

...NORTHEAST/OHIO VALLEY/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.  MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
SNOW.  NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN MODEL QPFS HERE.

...SRN ARKANSAS TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC...

SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PREFERRED.  RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
DEVELOPING AREA OF WARM.  

 ...PACIFIC  NW/NRN ROCKIES...

THE COMBINATION OF GRADUALLY FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NRN CASCADES/NRN COASTAL
RANGES. FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE FAR NRN ROCKIES WILL RECEIVE
MODERATE PRECIPITATION AS WELL. 
  
  

ORAVEC/KOSIER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 535220 537212 539203 539195 538188 533170 528162 524155 
      518148 512144 501141 498140 495137 490130 487120 487112 
      486106 487102 494096 494092 494086 491075 487067 482062 
      475059 468058 464058 462059 461064 462070 465076 468081 
      468085 461090 456088 448089 441089 437090 433088 428084 
      425082 422084 422087 423091 425095 426101 423106 424112 
      426122 429123 437120 440120 442122 446126 449129 450137 
      454144 457152 461159 466165 471169 483179 490187 493190 
      495195 495199 487201 476207 471211 468216 469219 480223 
      485225 488229 488234 482235 476232 474235 474240 477247 
      482254 500288 504291 509288 513279 517273 520264 521257 
      520251 518239 515230 511222 504207 507202 509202 511204 
      515208 526222 529225 532224 535220 
 0.01 465648 464643 460640 457632 453624 448620 439618 434619 
      429626 426630 423637 421640 417642 409648 401651 384664 
      376671 374675 369679 355694 339712 325730 317738 310746 
      296758 288765 281771 264781 258786 252792 247798 241806 
      237814 236817 237822 237827 240832 244834 249834 257830 
      263823 266818 268814 272812 275808 287797 295790 301785 
      315776 324770 334764 345759 351759 352761 353765 353770 
      354777 356782 360785 366784 370779 376770 379766 382764 
      385766 387771 390778 390784 384792 356816 349824 344832 
      342836 342841 344847 349850 352850 355848 358844 361839 
      364837 366841 367849 369857 374860 379866 381879 379896 
      381912 380928 384943 411962 433958 456963 475980 479995 
      473999 465998 442995 430996 426004 430021 437029 453038 
      492055 506057 513047 513026 509003 512993 526957 529949 
      530929 525891 514873 497867 484870 466875 445870 426866 
      403846 396837 387829 383821 383813 387808 396807 405810 
      416815 425824 436832 443825 448809 456769 460743 460733 
      461719 459696 460685 463670 464658 465648 
 0.01 414072 413068 412068 410066 407066 404066 401068 401069 
      404069 407072 410076 412075 414072 
 0.01 340932 348906 347894 342887 330882 323884 319888 314900 
      302922 298936 294958 297968 304978 312982 321975 340932 
 0.25 524192 523191 521187 521184 519181 518181 517181 516186 
      517187 519191 520192 523195 524192 
 0.25 513261 511255 510248 508240 506235 503234 499228 498224 
      495223 495228 497235 499240 501245 503252 504258 508262 
      510264 513261 
 0.25 451665 448654 443649 439647 433648 423652 410673 408678 
      404693 404705 407716 410725 413741 413751 410778 411785 
      415791 420795 424796 430793 435788 437781 439767 439759 
      440752 444740 446731 447725 448710 448702 448695 450681 
      452671 451665 
 0.25 504272 503269 503266 501262 499260 496258 494258 496261 
      497264 498266 499270 500271 502274 504272 
 0.25 492148 493144 492142 489136 486132 482129 478127 472126 
      469129 467136 469141 474143 480143 485147 488149 492148 
 0.25 271794 267792 259794 254798 250803 246808 243815 245820 
      247821 250820 254815 259810 263806 267802 271796 271794 
 0.50 441699 443677 441671 438663 435662 430665 426668 422673 
      419676 412684 411690 411696 415702 419708 422718 426729 
      431731 436729 440722 441699  
 
24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 524261 523250 520238 517226 514218 507206 513209 518211 
      524212 526212 530210 536203 540196 544183 546173 549163 
      551147 553139 554124 552113 549108 546103 544102 540102 
      533102 528109 528114 527122 527136 527140 524145 518143 
      506132 493122 487117 481108 470098 463093 456089 451087 
      441087 435090 432094 431100 433104 436107 443109 450109 
      454108 458109 462114 458120 455122 452127 452135 454141 
      456150 461159 467165 472171 480182 482186 483192 480195 
      475197 468200 462204 449211 443215 437218 426227 420233 
      416243 416248 419251 422254 431254 437254 441255 446257 
      457261 460263 462266 466275 471282 478288 484293 492297 
      499297 506295 512290 516284 
 0.01 469629 465622 461618 458618 453621 449626 444635 435653 
      428669 417698 404727 402734 401744 401755 403761 403765 
      392779 381792 377796 370799 374786 378780 380771 381764 
      381755 379747 375739 371736 367735 364735 359737 350743 
      344749 340755 336760 330773 327786 323801 321814 319829 
      318848 317866 318883 320920 316932 314947 315957 316963 
      318966 321970 325972 328973 333973 337972 343968 351959 
      355942 358910 360886 361863 358841 363831 370830 375831 
      381833 388843 393852 397862 399874 397883 397891 397896 
      400901 404909 416921 422926 428930 442937 446940 449946 
      453954 458960 463966 469969 486988 495992 500988 501977 
      499958 497939 499929 506914 512897 513878 510860 503844 
      489829 468817 446808 433804 420800 416800 416796 425792 
      432786 437783 440778 450762 453755 457746 460738 463729 
      464721 465711 465695 464684 465676 470648 471638 469629 
 0.25 532190 531179 528169 525163 520156 509146 495135 484129 
      477129 475132 473137 473150 476159 479165 483172 494183 
      505192 510196 514199 522200 529195 532190 
 0.25 520264 520258 519249 516238 511226 505216 499209 495204 
      489202 483202 478204 471208 463213 455218 447222 440227 
      438233 439238 443241 451244 453244 457246 462250 469256 
      475265 481274 490282 500288 506287 510285 513281 515277 
      520264 
 0.25 453687 452682 450679 446679 442683 440690 440705 438718 
      436726 433732 426743 424751 426755 429757 434756 440752 
      443746 446740 449728 452712 453697 453687 
 0.25 349837 348830 345824 342824 339827 336836 335846 333868 
      333889 331910 330921 330930 331934 332937 335938 338935 
      340932 344923 347913 348901 347891 347880 348870 348848 
      349837 
 0.50 512275 515269 517262 517248 514239 511232 507223 502215 
      497209 492205 487204 484205 477207 472211 469213 467218 
      473224 472230 470232 467235 465239 466243 468247 473254 
      478261 482267 487274 493279 501283 505282 508281 512275 
 0.50 525188 525180 524175 521168 517161 511155 505150 497148 
      488146 486150 487156 489166 492172 498179 503185 508190 
      513193 517194 523192 525188 
 0.50 338876 342874 344869 342865 336864 335872 338876 
 0.50 340891 337892 335899 336906 337910 340911 343909 343904 
      343896 342893 340891 
 1.00 504272 506266 506260 507250 507246 509242 509236 504225 
      500217 496213 493210 489209 484209 478212 478217 484222 
      489227 488234 482234 477236 474237 473241 479253 488265 
      493270 500273 504272 
 1.00 518181 517176 516173 515171 513168 511166 511165 508164 
      505163 504164 502168 503173 504174 506178 507179 509181 
      512183 515184 518181 
 1.50 497259 497255 497254 495249 492245 491243 490242 487240 
      484239 481239 480239 478243 480247 482249 482250 485253 
      486255 487257 490259 493261 496260 497259 
 1.50 502228 501226 500223 499221 497218 496217 494214 491213 
      488213 486214 487219 487220 489223 491225 492227 495229 
      497231 500231 502228  
 
$$