AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
1010 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...LOWERED DEWPOINTS/RHS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AFTER LOOKING A            
THE RUC, WRF, AND CURRENT TRENDS. THE RESULT IS RED FLAG CONDITIONS             
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FAR              
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST THIS                  
AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWN DURING SUNDAY SINCE              
THE HEIGHTS SEEMED TO JUMP UP TOO QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS.             
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AND            
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.                                                     
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS                      
MORNING...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED               
ACROSS THE REGION IN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.                 
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH               
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...DRY               
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON SATURDAY WILL BOTH              
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF EAST COAST SEABREEZE AND ENHANCE THE FIRE                
WEATHER THREAT FOR INTERIOR AND EAST COAST LOCATION...AND WILL                  
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN UPCOMING ISSUANCE OF THE FWFMFL.  MODELS               
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING AN EASTWARD                      
TRANSLATION OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER               
NORTHERN MEXICO...DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ULTIMATELY               
ALLOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST ON                
SUNDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS             
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.                                                       
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY                
NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME LEADING TO                 
RAPIDLY INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.  MODELS                 
INDICATE THAT RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE              
DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 65-70 F AND               
850 MB DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO 12-15 C.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL                 
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORM               
THE WEST AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...AND EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE             
OF RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY                
MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN           
PRESENCE OF 30-40 KNOT FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MAGNITUDE OF                  
INSTABILITY BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG               
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO                 
REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG            
THE GFS/UKMET/CMC GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY                
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                     
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY               
AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY              
DIMINISH AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE                
PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE              
CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  TIMING OF THE TRUE COLD                  
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH AVAILABLE               
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL INDICATING A DIFFERENT TIMING               
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...WILL SPLIT THE                    
DIFFERENCE AND INDICATE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES ON                
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE                  
AFTERNOON.  NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN PLOT SUGGEST THAT A DEEP UPPER LOW               
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF            
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH              
FLORIDA.  THUS...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO PERSIST              
FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH             
WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.  FORECAST                 
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER DEEP                 
MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO FORM IN THE 4-5K FOOT RANGE DURING               
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ONLY PROBLEM FORESEEN AT THIS TIME IS SOME                
PATCHY FOG AROUND THE KTMB AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD BURN OFF                      
RELATIVELY QUICKLY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE                 
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...DESPITE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING               
GULF STREAM SEAS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. STRONGER                          
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL               
PRESENT THE GREATEST CONCERN...WITH SEAS LIKELY APPROACHING 6 FEET              
BY WEDNESDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
GREATEST SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                     
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH A DRY AIRMASS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND                
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT. A              
RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE                      
AREA...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS LATER THIS                 
MORNING. AFTER TODAY...ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF                   
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT UNTIL                
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN DRY AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD SOUTHWARD              
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  77  57  75  64 / -  10 10 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  61  76  67 / -  10 10 10                                   
MIAMI            80  61  77  67 / -  10 10 20                                   
NAPLES           74  56  74  59 / -  -  -  10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...70/DD                                                               
SHORT TERM...65                                                                 
AVIATION...65                                                                   
UPDATE...TINGLER                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
855 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATING THE FORECAST AROUND 915 PM TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF                  
LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF I-74 WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR               
FLURRIES FROM I-74 NORTH. BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE             
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 ACROSS NORTHERN IL WERE A COUPLE INCHES OF              
SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER.                            
02Z/8 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER WV WHILE 1008             
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING              
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI...NORTHERN WI AND SOUTHERN MN. MID AND             
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD EAST ACROSS IL AND INTO INDIANA BY MID EVENING.              
8 TO 10 KFT CEILINGS FROM PEORIA AND SPRINGFIELD WEST. LIGHT SNOW               
WAS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SW WI NORTH OF I-80 AND MOVING EAST                
TOWARD NORTHERN IL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE 20S FROM I-74 NORTH TO THE             
LOWER 30S FROM GALESBURG...SPRINGFIELD...MATTOON AND TERRE HAUTE SW.            
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20F. MOST AREAS GOT ABOVE             
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S FROM I-74 NORTH             
TO THE LOWER 40S FROM SPRINGFIELD AND LAWRENCEVILLE SW.                         
RUC AND WRF KEEP LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF GALESBURG AND LACON AND                    
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW THE LOWER PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS               
NORTH OF I-74 TONIGHT AND SHIFTING NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT. SO JUST             
HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM I-74 NORTH AND              
DRY CENTRAL AND SE IL. SE WINDS UNDER 10 MPH BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES            
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING TOO MUCH MORE WITH LOWS AROUND 20F IN                
EAST CENTRAL IL AND AROUND 25F FROM GALESBURG TO SPRINGFIELD TO                 
LAWRENCEVILLE SW.                                                               
MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT              
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE INTO NORTH TX/SW OK             
MON. QPF MOVING INTO SW HALF DURING MON AFTERNOON AND COULD BE WARM             
ENOUGH FOR RAIN MON AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SE IL WHERE TEMPS UPPER 30S            
TO NEAR 40F. GFS IS COLDER AND FASTER WITH QPF THAN WRF MODEL WHICHS            
WAITS UNTIL MON NIGHT TO BRING IN QPF AND LIGHTER FROM THE IL                   
RIVER NW.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE                     
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS OVER THE              
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO              
THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALSO...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST IN THE LEE OF              
THE ROCKIES...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO CONNECT WITH             
THE UPPER MIDWEST COLD FRONT. ALOFT...A POLAR VORTEX WAS CENTERED               
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE              
GULF COAST OF TEXAS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALSO...A VIGOROUS WAVE            
WAS COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN            
THE NEXT FEW DAYS REVOLVES AROUND INTERACTION OF THE UPPER                      
VORTEX...APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...AND STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS            
THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING                  
REGION AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS WEEK.              
12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST MAJOR FEATURES...THOUGH                  
SUBTLE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN QPF AMOUNT AND MAX/MIN                  
AXES AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO                 
CONTINUED TO SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE WEST COAST WAVE...MAKING THE              
CURRENT EXPECTED ONSET OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ABOUT 24 HOURS              
LATER THAN PROGS OF ONLY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. DUE TO THIS LINGERING               
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS...CONTINUED SLOWING IN THE MODELS...AND              
AT LEAST A 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD BEFORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION                 
ARRIVES...WE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE GOING WATCH            
UNCHANGED.                                                                      
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
TONIGHT...AS STATED ABOVE...WEST COAST WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE              
AND FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT DROPS IN                  
TONIGHT. INITIAL...MODEST WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING              
WAVE SHOULD ONLY YIELD AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY AND RESTRICTED THOSE THAT REMAIN             
TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                         
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN EVENT. SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS TO              
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A POSITION IT WILL MAINTAIN               
UNTIL MAIN SYSTEM PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL             
CONTINUE/INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TIME MONDAY AND             
SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY                
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF             
FORECAST AREA...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH              
FOR SLEET OR RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-70 SHOULD ALSO BE            
JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO ICE IS NOT CONSIDERED A MAJOR THREAT UNTIL               
MONDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE LATE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...SIGNIFICANT            
ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN               
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.                                                             
MAIN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING...TO THE CENTRAL OHIO                
VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG FORCING WILL PASS THROUGH FORECAST            
AREA FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. THIS FORCING WILL                 
INITIAL COME FROM PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND TRANSITION MORE TO             
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH TIME. THE TIGHTENING OF THE                 
ALREADY SUBSTANTIAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL OCCUR COURTESY OF STRONG               
UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM A COUPLED JET PASSING NEARLY OVERHEAD.                    
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS STILL A                
TOUGH CALL. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE THAT HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR            
IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD. THE AMPLE FORCING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL                  
ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PRECIPITABLE WATER                 
VALUES ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE ONE HALF TO THREE              
QUARTERS OF AN INCH DURING THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION PERIOD. LOOKING            
AT IT ANOTHER WAY...MIXING RATIOS WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 4 G/KG DURING               
THE UP TO 12 HOURS OF MODEST TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH COULD              
YIELD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. SOUTH OF I-70...THERMAL PROFILES                   
SUPPORT PERIODS OF SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN AS WELL AS THE              
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL AVERAGE 2-3 C               
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE IN             
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER...STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS              
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW. HOWEVER...            
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD                  
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS RETURN AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH             
STARTS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK                   
CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE COLDER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.                
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDANT ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW             
FALLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                             
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY                
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERALLY QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS            
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY                 
BUILD THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A COMPLEX POLAR             
VORTEX CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA. SOME IMPULSES ARE               
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND IN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPPER             
FLOW...BUT THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES                  
PRECLUDE ADDING A MENTION OF SNOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL             
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                              
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE ILX CWA FROM 18Z MONDAY TO              
00Z WEDNESDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/BAK                                                                      
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
239 PM MST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)                                            
LATEST SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED                 
OVER ILLINOIS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND                 
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY                 
SHOWED CYCLONIC SPIN AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STRONG SHORTWAVE               
AND TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES FROM IDAHO THROUGH NEVADA                
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEN WITH                
THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.                                                     
MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY               
OF MORE FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AND THEN PRECIPITATION TYPES AND                   
AMOUNTS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH TROUGH TO OUR WEST.                    
FOR TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN SOUTHEAST                 
COLORADO. WILL STILL HAVE LOTS OF BOUNDARY LATER RH AS SEEN ON                  
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. WILL CARRY MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE              
AND FOG ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE               
AND FREEZING FOG MUCH OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF                    
FLURRIES IN FAR NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER              
MIDNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE                
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING              
FROM LOW 20S NORTHWEST TO LOW 30S SOUTH AND EAST.                               
THEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BECOME QUITE INTERESTING. SURFACE LOW              
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS               
ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS                  
MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CONCERN                 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MIXTURE OF TYPES TO BEGIN WITH. PRIOR TO               
18Z WILL PLAN TO CARRY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND CHANCE OF                  
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA WITH AREAS OF                
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET SOUTHEAST HALF. AFTER 18Z DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON WILL SEE COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN AROUND ON THE BACKSIDE                
OF THE LOW AND TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CHANGE OVER ALL PRECIPITATION                
TO A FROZEN VARIETY. WILL GO WITH COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING                
FROM THE MIDDLE 20S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH THROUGH EAST.                  
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE                
ENTIRE AREA WITH LOWER CHANCES WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS                   
SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WILL EXPECT TO              
SEE SOME SNOW BY THE TIME ALL IS DONE. AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECTING              
ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH                     
HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM THE HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE AREAS. WILL GO CLOSE              
TO GUIDANCE FOR COLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE                   
DIGITS.                                                                         
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY                  
BEFORE THE NEXT WEAKER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY                  
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH             
WHICH THIS SYSTEM CAN USE. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR                  
LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID NOT CHANGE                     
TEMPERATURES MUCH AT ALL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR              
STILL IN PLACE.                                                                 
.LONG TERM... (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                         
UPPER RIDGE PRESENTLY OVER WEST COAST WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD                
AND MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALSO                    
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UP AS WELL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE                 
40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAMMERS                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1030 AM MST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...JUST COMPLETED ANOTHER UPDATE. MAIN REASON WAS TO DROP            
THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. VERY COMPLICATED AND TEDIOUS SITUATION               
FOR TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE                     
CLEARING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST            
THAN RIGHT NOW. MODELS DO NOT HAVE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST                   
STRONG ENOUGH AS EVIDENCED BY THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE KANSAS AND            
COLORADO BORDER. ALSO BECAUSE OF THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF                   
TROUGH...WINDS ARE GOING TO BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY               
EXPECTED. THAT IS WHY CLEARING LINE WILL NOT PROGRESS MUCH FURTHER              
AND ALSO WHY HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.                                        
BOUNDARY LAYER RH STAYS VERY HIGH IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. THAT WILL              
KEEP OVERCAST SKIES THERE. RUC40 AND RUC13 WHICH DID BETTER ON                  
STRATUS AND FOG POSITION AND RETURN YESTERDAY...BRING FOG AND                   
STRATUS BACK RAPIDLY IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO KEPT             
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED               
FOG PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF                  
PRECIPITATION. WILL BE TALKING WITH THE DAY FORECASTER AND MONITOR              
TRENDS TO MAKE A LATER DECISION ON THAT.                                        
THERE IS SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH                  
WHICH COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST EVEN MORE. BECAUSE OF THE           
CLEARING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGH            
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO PORTION OF OUR            
AREA. THINK THAT IS ALL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
229 PM MST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)                                              
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE MORE FREEZING FOG                  
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                  
MONDAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM               
IOWA TO TEXAS WITH STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO              
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE                     
IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPROACHING THE              
WEST COAST. SEVERAL OTHER SIMILAR FEATURES WERE SEEN FURTHER WEST               
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HUGE HUDSON BAY LOW STILL SPINNING IN                 
PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. COLD ARCTIC AIR STILL ENTRENCHED                
ACROSS THE GOOD LAND FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST             
SEVERAL DAYS WITH REGARD TO LOW STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG EPISODES.              
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH REGARD               
TO SURFACE FEATURES AS WELL AS WITH THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF                
TROUGH OFF WEST COAST WHICH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER BY                 
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS MODEL SLIGHTLY BETTER                
THAN THE REST AS IT WAS DOING LITTLE BETTER WITH TIMING AND                     
POSITION OF SYSTEMS AS WELL AS WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURE FIELDS.                
FOR TONIGHT LATEST RUC MODEL STILL SHOWED DECENT SWATH OF HIGH                  
BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS WHICH               
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. WILL CARRY AREAS OF               
FREEZING FOG. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR                
LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE                
20S.                                                                            
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE FREEZING FOG FOR THE MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF               
BY MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL STILL HAVE CANOPY OF STRATUS CLOUDS IN               
PLACE AS WELL. 850 MB TEMPS OF SHORT RANGE MODELS ATTEMPT TO WARM               
UP THE REGION FROM PREVIOUS DAY AND EXPECT SOME WARMING TO OCCUR.               
TEMPERATURES DO HOWEVER REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AS WE STILL                 
HAVE OUR SNOW COVER IN PLACE. WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES                    
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.                                                       
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY                
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                   
MODELS DO SHOW SOME REALLY DECENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS                
SYSTEM. APPEARS WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY                
NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED                
POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE ALSO                
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM EXITS THE                    
REGION. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SLUG OF COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO REGION               
WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE               
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALL                
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.                                                 
FOR TUESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH                
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.          
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COLD MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. BY                   
TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT SYSTEM TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH ENOUGH                      
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO BEGIN TO PRODUCE SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT                 
SNOW. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COLD IN THE TEENS AND                   
SINGLE DIGITS.                                                                  
.LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY)                                            
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO                  
EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE                    
FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY TRACK LOOKS TO BE MORE TO OUR SOUTH.                   
MODELS DO ALSO HINT AT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP                   
NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME ENOUGH CONFIDENCE                
WAS HAD TO CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE               
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY                
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION AND DRIES OUT THE              
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY                
WITH A LITTLE WARMING ON FRIDAY. THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR                 
LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. FUTURE                    
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THE EXTENDED MODELS CLOSELY FOR BETTER                
TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE FEATURES NEXT WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAMMERS                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1157 AM MST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...JUST COMPLETED ANOTHER UPDATE. CLEARING IS OCCURRING              
FROM THE WEST AND QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GET. BOUNDARY                
LAYER MOISTURE FORECASTS FROM RUC/NAM MATCHING UP WELL WITH REALITY.            
GOING TO BE AN EXTREMELY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE COLORADO COUNTIES              
TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. CLOUD COVER HANGING ON                  
TOUGH AND ACTUALLY THICKENING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SO BLEND OF            
REALITY AND RUC/NAM SHOULD WORK OUT FINE.                                       
ALSO WILL HAVE TO EXTEND THE FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF             
THE AREA. WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE ACCORDING             
TO THE RUC/NAM...WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG. KMCK HAS ACTUALLY DROPPED              
IN VISIBILITY RECENTLY SO LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL WORK. WILL HAVE                  
PATCHY FOG ON THE BORDER OF THIS AREA WITH THE EXTREME EAST AND                 
NORTHWEST SECTION WITH NO FOG...HOPEFULLY. FOG LOOKS TO RAPIDLY                 
REDEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST IF BELIEVE THE RUC.                                  
NAM12 DOING VERY WELL WITH THE WIND FIELD...AND UPDATED THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH IT. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST                   
SLIGHTLY WHERE PERSISTENT FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE.                        
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE FOCUSES ON LES TRENDS.                                                   
LATEST MQT RADAR LOOP SHOWS DOMINANT LES BAND WHICH FORMED ALONG                
WIND SHIFT LINE HAS SAGGED SE ALONG SHOT POINT-MUNISING LINE. STILL             
SOME REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 30 DBZ WITHIN THIS NARROW BAND AND                
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXCEEDING AN INCH/HOUR             
AS IT PASSES.                                                                   
QUESTIONS FOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THIS BAND WILL                   
PERSIST IN INTENSITY OR IF ANOTHER BAND WILL REFORM OVER ERN ALGER              
AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES IN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL                      
CONVERGENCE AS DEPICTED BY 00Z MESOSCALE MODELS (RUC13, NAM12, AND              
WRF-ARW). GIVEN THAT THE BAND APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT                
ALONG ITS WESTERN EXTENT...IT LOOKS LIKE MESOSCALE MODELS MIGHT HAVE            
RIGHT IDEA. SO WOULD LOOK FOR CURRENT BAND TO EITHER PROPAGATE BACK             
EAST OR REFORM OVER ERN ALGER AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT LATER TONIGHT AS              
LAND BREEZES HELP FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THIS AREA. KEPT              
IN ADDITIONAL AMTS OF 1-3 INCHES FOR ALGER COUNTY IN THE OVERNIGHT              
PERIOD. ALSO TRIMMED BACK LES COVERAGE FM NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED                 
ALONG MQT COUNTY LAKESHORE AREA GIVEN THAT BETTER CONVERGENCE WILL              
TEND TO BE FOCUSED FARTHER E.                                                   
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO TRIM BACK POPS OVER WRN COUNTIES AS VERY DRY AIR            
UPSTREAM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAVE BASICALLY DIMINISHED LES TO                 
FLURRIES THERE AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD VORTEX CENTERED IN            
THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO            
THE NE GULF OF ALASKA. RESULT IS NW FLOW DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES             
REGION. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM IS A SHEARED                 
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO. AT THE LOW LEVELS...             
CONVERGENT WRLY FLOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO MAIN ZONE OF             
LES ACROSS N HALF OF HOUGHTON COUNTY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THE                   
GENERALLY DRY UPSTREAM AIRMASS PER 12Z KINL SOUNDING HAS LARGELY                
KEPT LES IN CHECK. 19Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KCMX LOOKED MORE                    
SUPPORTIVE OF DECENT LES THOUGH WITH INVERSION AT 830MB (5.4KFT)...             
SO THERE MIGHT BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS OCCURRING.                 
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...LES HAS UNDERGONE SOME REORGANIZATION THIS             
AFTN...AND THE EXPECTED HVY BAND OF LES ALONG WIND SHIFT HAS                    
FINALLY TAKEN SHAPE FROM NEAR THE HURON ISLANDS TO GRAND MARAIS.                
BAND IS VERY NARROW...BUT 0.5 DEGREE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM KMQT             
RADAR IS SHOWING INCREASING AREA OF GREATER THAN 28DBZ ECHOES. SO               
1-3 INCH/HR SNOW RATES ARE PROBABLY COMMON IN THIS NARROW BAND OF               
SNOW.                                                                           
AS SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUES SHEARING SE THIS EVENING...              
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT TO LES WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS INDICATED            
BY DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA. THIS                  
FORCING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL ASSIST THE MAIN BAND OF LES ON             
WIND SHIFT WHICH IS DROPPING THRU SCNTRL/SE LAKE SUPERIOR ATTM.                 
COULD SEE A QUICK 2-3INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS LES BAND PROVIDED IT              
DOES NOT BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WIND SHIFT               
WILL PROGRESS STEADILY THRU ERN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES THIS EVENING                
WHICH WOULD KEEP BAND ON THE MOVE AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER              
W...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ALGER COUNTY. AS WINDS BECOME               
NW...LAND BREEZE OFF HURON MOUNTAINS COULD RESULT IN THE TAIL END OF            
THIS BAND BECOMING STATIONARY FROM AROUND BIG BAY TOWARD THE AREA               
FROM SHOT POINT TO MUNISING. OTHERWISE...WITHOUT FOCUSED                        
CONVERGENCE...LES THRU THE NIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE                    
(GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES) WITH INVERSION SETTING UP AROUND 4KFT. OUT               
W...LES SHOULD BECOME SCT OVER THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS VEER NNW WITH              
ISLE ROYALE LIMITING FETCH. LES SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED FARTHER S INTO            
ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES. ICE COVER EXTENDS FROM THE APOSTLE                  
ISLANDS TO NEAR THE LOCATION OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BUOY. ALTHOUGH THE            
ICE COVER IS NOT SOLID...IT WILL WORK TO LIMIT HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES             
AND WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LES COVERAGE INTO GOGEBIC COUNTY. HAVE             
THUS CONFINED NUMEROUS SHSN COVERAGE TO ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE                
COUNTY N OF KIWD. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED MINS INLAND TONIGHT A                  
FEW DEGREES WITH A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.               
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE -10F OR LOWER AT THE USUAL COLD SPOTS              
OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.                                                       
ON MON...WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO A N TO NE DIRECTION AS SFC                   
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS ONTARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE              
CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO INVERSION HEIGHTS/MOISTURE PROFILES. SO...LES            
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE (SUB ADVY ACCUMULATIONS). THOUGHT                 
ABOUT LOWERING POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY OVER THE KEWEENAW...BUT               
WITH WINDS VEERING N...FETCH WILL ACTUALLY IMPROVE. EVEN SO...WITH A            
N WIND...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR DIVERGENCE OVER THE KEWEENAW              
DUE TO LAND BREEZE COMPONENTS OVER LAND. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST KEEP              
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHTER THAN WHAT WILL OCCUR FROM ROCKLAND TO THE                 
VCNTY OF THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI.                      
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                      
NORTHERLY WINDS AND H85 TEMPS NEAR -20C WILL KEEP LES GOING CLOSE TO            
LK SUPERIOR. WX MAY GET MORE MUDDLED LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS RUC            
13 AND LOCAL WRF-ARW INDICATE LAND BREEZES BEGIN TO DOMINATE LOWER              
LEVEL WINDS. IDEA MAKES SOME SENSE AS TEMPS WILL BE REALLY COOLING              
OVR FAR EASTERN UPR MI AS WINDS ARE FM NORTHEAST. SOME SCENARIOS                
EVEN RESULT IN PUSHING ANY LES COMPELTELY OFFSHORE OF NCNTRL AREAS              
OUT INTO LK SUPERIOR. NOT SURE HOW THIS SETUP WILL PLAY OUT...BUT               
FOR NOW DID SHOW A RETREATING TREND TO THE LES MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM            
BEFORE SYNOPTIC FLOW FM N STRENGTHENS AGAIN. AIRMASS IS DRY AS MAIN             
MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP TO SIG STORM AFFECTING CNTRL PLAINS INTO               
OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. IF THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WITH THAT            
LOW COULD PROGRESS FARTHER NORTH...THEN ONGOING LES MAY GET A BOOST.            
AS IT STANDS NOW...LES SHOULD BE PRETTY MINIMAL WITH INVERSIONS WELL            
BLO H85. NE WINDS MAKE LES A NON ISSUE OVR LUCE COUNTY...SO LOWERED             
TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF ONTARIO            
ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS             
TOWARD 25 BLO ZERO MON NIGHT OVR FAR EAST. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE IN               
LOCAL COLD SPOTS WHERE SKIES CAN CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME CALM.                   
WHILE LARGE STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...UPR LOW AND POOL             
OF COLD AIR SINKS ACROSS UPR LAKES BY WED. ON AVERAGE H85 TEMPS FALL            
TO -20C TO -25C 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THU. AT SFC...CYCLONIC N/NW FLOW            
BTWN STRONG LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND AND SPRAWLING HIGH OVR CNTRL                 
CANADA INTO PLAINS WILL GENERATE MODERATE LES. LES WILL LIKELY                  
BECOME HEAVY FOR A PERIOD LATER WED INTO THU AS UPR LOW/LARGE SCALE             
LIFT/10KFT INVERSION/MOISTURE TO 10-15KFT SWEEPS ACROSS UPR GREAT               
LAKES. NW-N WINDS IN LOWER LAYERS AS ENHANCING FACTORS ARE BOOSTING             
LES. EXTENDED LIKELY POPS INTO THU NIGHT-FRI NEAR LK SUPERIOR. UPR              
LOW SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON FRI WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING               
TOWARD A WEST DIRECTION BY SAT. CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKED LIKE IT WAS               
GOING TO AFFECT UPR LAKES FRI-SAT. NOW...AS MAIN UPR LOW IS TRENDING            
SLOWER IN EXITING THE CONUS...THAT SYSTEM STAYS WELL TO THE SW OF               
THE REGION. KEPT SMALL POPS IN AS WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH                 
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI INTO SAT. MORE NW FLOW LES ON SUN.                       
INTERESTING THAT SIGNS ARE BEGINNING TO EMERGE IN LATEST LONG RANGE             
GUIDANCE THAT A PATTERN CHANGE COULD START TAKING SHAPE 7-10 DAYS               
OUT. ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF LOOKS LIKE MORE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVR              
EASTERN PACIFIC AS STRONGER JET SETS UP FARTHER NORTH TOWARD GULF OF            
AK. THIS LEADS TO RIDGE OVR WEST CONUS AND TROUGH OVR ERN CANADA AND            
CONUS BOTH BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD. RESULT IS A WARMER PATTERN               
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...INCLUDING UPR GREAT LAKES.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1150 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD VORTEX CENTERED               
OVER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE NE               
GULF OF ALASKA. RESULT IS NW FLOW DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.            
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY IS A SHEARED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE               
ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO. AT THE LOW LEVELS...CONVERGENT WRLY FLOW               
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS               
INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING...BUT THE GENERALLY DRY UPSTREAM                 
AIRMASS PER 12Z KINL SOUNDING HAS KEPT LES IN CHECK. OVER ERN LAKE              
SUPERIOR...MAIN LES BANDS ARE OFFSHORE OF ERN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...              
LIGHTER LES WHICH DEVELOPED N OF MUNISING EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS              
BEEN STREAMING INTO THE LAKESHORE AREAS FROM PICTURED ROCKS E.                  
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE SHEARING SE TODAY...BUT IT              
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AS INDICATED BY WEAK DEEP             
LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE. THAT FORCING IS SPREADING ACROSS LAKE                
SUPERIOR NOW. THUS...EXPECT A BOOST IN LES FOR A TIME. 12Z NAM/RUC              
SHOW FORCING EXITING THE NW FCST AREA BY 21Z...SO PERIOD OF                     
ENHANCEMENT IS SHORT-LIVED THERE. IN ADDITION...WITH WINDS VEERING              
FROM W TO NW...BANDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND FETCH WILL BECOME SHORTER.            
A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY SEEMS REASONABLE FOR              
THE KEWEENAW BASED ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD            
OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HOUGHTON WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL              
BE FOCUSED EARLY THIS AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER S. TO THE E...THE            
BENEFIT OF A LONGER OVERWATER FETCH WILL YIELD HEAVIER SNOW AS BANDS            
SHIFT S INTO ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. CONSIDERED HOISTING AN ADVY...BUT             
IT REALLY APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE JUST ONE DOMINATE BAND ALONG               
THE WIND SHIFT. SINCE THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...DON`T                
THINK ANY LOCATION IN PARTICULAR WILL BE UNDER THE BAND FOR LONG. IN            
GENERAL...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR ALGER/LUCE FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH SOME LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR THE SHORE.               
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL E OF MUNISING TODAY.                                 
ELSEWHERE...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS MUCH OF ONTONAGON                 
COUNTY. MIGHT SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NRN PART             
OF THE COUNTY. SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES WILL ALSO EXPAND INTO SRN                     
HOUGHTON/BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTIES AS WINDS VEER. ACROSS THE                 
S...A DRY AFTN IS EXPECTED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 515 AM EST                                        
TAKING A LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND RUC                   
ANALYSIS...MUCH OF THE NATION WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH                   
PRESSURE.  IN FACT...EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WAS DOMINATED BY                
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  AN ELONGATED AREA OF            
LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY                    
MOUNTAINS...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST                   
MONTANA...SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING...EASTERN                          
COLORADO...AND WESTERN TEXAS.  CLOSER TO HOME...BUT ACROSS THE                  
BORDER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN HUDSON BAY             
AND JAMES BAY.  FROM THIS SYSTEM...A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT                 
STRETCHED WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  LOOKING AT THE IR AND                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SOME CLOUDS WERE EVIDENT ALONG THIS                       
FEATURE...DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE THE FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARDS            
MANITOBA YOU GO. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN APPROACHING            
SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST...ACROSS CENTRAL AND             
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA.                                                  
GREATEST CONVERGENCE TODAY STILL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE KEWEENAW                  
PENINSULA BETWEEN 09 AND 18Z. IN FACT...SNOW BEGAN AT CMX SHORTLY               
BEFORE 08Z. INVERSION HEIGHTS...AND INITIAL DRY ARE OVER THE AREA               
HAS HINDERED AND SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.                       
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS            
PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY                   
18Z...THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND EXIT THE MNM AREA AROUND OR                   
SHORTLY AFTER 03Z SUNDAY.  AS A RESULT...OUR WESTERLY FLOW TODAY                
WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE                    
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AIR.  FOR                
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...GUIDANCE VALUES FROM THE MET AND               
MAV DIFFER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 6 DEGREES OR SO...WITH THE NAM             
BEING THE WARMEST DESPITE IT ALSO GIVING FEWER CLOUDS AT THIS TIME              
PERIOD.  WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES...HAVE LEANED THE TEMPERATURES EVER            
SO SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS...COOLING TEMPS 1 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS               
THE REGION.  THE GFS IS GENERALLY QUICKER AND INITIALLY COOLER TO               
BRING IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.  THE 00Z/10 NAM DID SEEM TO             
HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH INITIALIZATION.                                         
FOR MONDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET FROM THE                
CURRENT -12 TO -14C TO A LOW POINT OF -18C WEST TO -22 TO -24C                  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES BY 18Z MONDAY.  THE                
COLDEST AIR WILL STILL REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NNE...WITH -33C                    
ANTICIPATED OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO.  OTHERWISE ON MONDAY...LARGE             
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM ALBERTA THROUGH CENTRAL MANITOBA            
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...NEVER                 
MAKING IT DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA.  A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS             
AND OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT ACROSS THE                            
NATION...LEAVING US WITHOUT SYNOPTIC FORCING TO ASSIST IN SNOW                  
PRODUCTION.  INSTEAD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND            
TO A LESSER EXTEND LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...WITH             
INVERSION HEIGHTS...WIND DIRECTION...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEING               
KEY...WITH MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.                 
BACK TO MONDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON               
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
TO SLIDE WESTWARD OUT OF LUCE COUNTY.  HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD                
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...FOR             
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.                                             
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ON...INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED            
SURFACE LOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH WILL STRETCH OVER THE CWA...AND               
MORE SPECIFICALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.                 
LOOKING AT THE 500MB FEATURES...LOOKS LIKE THE 12Z/10 CANADIAN MODEL            
IS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z/11 RUNS OF               
THE NAM AND GFS.  STILL...JUST ANOTHER REASON TO CONTINUE TO HEDGE              
THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE NAM THROUGH            
THE PERIOD.  WILL CONTINUE TO REVISIT THE LOCATION OF THIS 500MB LOW            
AS IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN ENHANCING OUR LAKE EFFECT                             
SNOW...MOISTENING UP THE MID LEVELS                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                          
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KF (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1110 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE FOCUSED ON HEADLINE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW                
ADVISORY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                                           
UPSTREAM TAMDAR AND 00Z RAOBS WERE QUITE DRY AT LOW LEVELS WITH                 
INVERSION HGTS AROUND 3KFT. RUC...NAM AND WRF-ARW FCST SNDGS SEEMED             
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DRY AIR AND LOW INVERSION HGTS ALONG WITH              
CONVERGENCE AREA OFF TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GIVEN DRYNESS OF            
SNDGS AND FACT THAT GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REALLY DOESN`T COME              
ONSHORE UNTIL AFT 08Z TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE LES WHICH FORMS LATE             
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE VERY ORGANIZED OR INTENSE. NAM AND RUC              
FCST SNDGS ALSO SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT LES WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS             
INVERSION HGTS REMAIN BLO 4KFT. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE LES AND               
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TRIMMED LES AMTS             
TO 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED IN            
THE MORNING.                                                                    
ALSO HAD TO ADJUST TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING             
IN FROM THE WEST HAVE KEPT READINGS FROM FALLING MUCH OVER THE WI               
BDR COUNTIES. WENT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE                    
INTERIOR FCST AREA AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR                  
SHORELINE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                             
H5 HEIGHTS INDICATE A RIDGE OVR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH TROUGHING            
OVR EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.            
POLAR VORTEX HAS SUNK INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH H5 HEIGHTS BLO 500             
DAM. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL SWING              
TOWARD THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON            
THE 280K SFC WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SWATH OF MID CLOUDS INTO SUN...BUT             
SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER S OVR WI WHERE LOWER LEVEL                  
MOISTENING IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE               
LAST WEEK...ANY PCPN OVR UPR MI WILL BE CAUSED BY LK SUPERIOR.                  
LES RIGHT NOW IS PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. INVERSION LOWERING BLO H9            
AS SEEN ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING/EARLY AFTN TAMDAR FM CYQT IS CAUSING               
THIS TREND. TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION CONTINUE TO WARM ALSO...                  
NEARING -15C BY 00Z. LOBES OF LARGE SCALE LIFT FM POLAR VORTEX                  
DROPPING TOWARD LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FM               
THE WEST SHOULD BOOST LES AFT MIDNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL WINDS ALSO                  
BECOME LESS SHEARED FM THE WEST AND CONVERGENCE PICKS UP FM SFC-H9              
AS WELL. SO...EXPECT LES TO GET SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE                
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF-ARW AND RUC13 INDICATE                   
GREATEST CONVERGENCE OVR KEWEENAW 09Z-18Z SUN AS NW WINDS OVR LK                
SUPERIOR MEET THE STUBBORN W/SW FLOW OVR LAND. EVEN WITH THESE                  
POSITIVES...INVERSION HEIGHTS STILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND H85...SO                
CONVECTIVE DEPTH DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. THIS WAS PRIMARY                 
REASON NOT TO GO WITH WARNING. INSTEAD...WILL ISSUE A LES/BLSN ADVY             
FOR KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ADDED BLSN AS EXPECT BLYR WINDS TO BE BTWN              
20-30 MPH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. WINDS SHIFTING NW IN MIXED                 
LAYER AFT 18Z SHOULD DIMINISH LES ON KEWEENAW SUN AFTN...SO WILL END            
ADVY AT THAT TIME. OTHER CONCERN IS OVR FAR NE CWA...WHERE AN ADVY              
MAY BE NEEDED ON SUN. NOT ISSUING THAT NOW SINCE IT IS STILL LATER              
IN THE SECOND PERIOD.                                                           
BACK TO WINDS...MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED LATELY WITH WIND SPEEDS OVR LK            
SUPERIOR. LAST TWO GALE EVENTS...NAM/GFS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED MAX                
WINDS BY 5-10KT AND IT IS HAPPENING AGAIN TODAY...WITH GALE FORCE               
GUSTS OBSERVED MOST DAY ON LK SUPERIOR AND 30 KT AT MOST IN MODEL               
GUIDANCE. SINCE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH H85 TONIGHT               
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES...WENT WITH GALE WARNING ON LK SUPERIOR THROUGH             
SUN AM.                                                                         
MOS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY SEEMED REASONABLE. LOWERED TEMPS OVR               
INLAND WEST HALF (5 TO 10 BLO ZERO) AS CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND             
FAIRLY LGT WINDS MAY RESULT IN TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY TOWARD CURRENT            
DEWPOINTS.                                                                      
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH SAT)...                                           
COLD FRONT REACHING THE KEWEENAW SUN AFTN WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA               
SUN EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -20 TO -24C                
RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF                
INSTABILITY FOR LES....NAM HAS COME AROUND TO THE GFS WITH RESPECT              
TO LOWER INVERSIONS OF 4-5KFT AND A LESS SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE                    
PROFILE. SO...AFTER INTIAL BURST OF SNOW WITH FROPA...LES SHOULD                
SETTLE DOWN TO A RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY THROUGH SUN NIGHT.                  
VEERING WINDS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING E THRU MANITOBA/ONTARIO WILL              
ALSO KEEP BANDS SHIFTING...KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS DOWN. IN                       
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE ANOTHER NEGATIVE.              
HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT LOCAL CONVERGENCE OR EVEN A                
MESOLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AS VEERING LARGE                 
SCALE WINDS ARE ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO TO TAKE ON A                
MORE ERLY COMPONENT OVER ERN SUPERIOR. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON              
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL HVY LES IN MARQUETTE OR                
ALGER COUNTIES LATE SUN NIGHT.                                                  
ON MON...WINDS CONTINUING VEERING TO A NE DIRECTION...BUT THERE IS              
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO INVERSION HEIGHTS/MOISTURE PROFILES.              
SO...LES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE (SUB ADVY ACCUMULATIONS). IF             
A MESOLOW DOES DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN NIGHT...              
SNOW COULD BE LOCALLY HVY THRU MON MORNING OVER A SMALL PART OF                 
NCNTL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH CORE OF COLDEST AIR PASSES JUST NE OF FCST             
AREA...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO REACH 10F OVER THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCNTL FCST AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING                  
AROUND -22C.                                                                    
TUE THRU SAT...OTHER THAN LES...THERE WON`T BE MUCH PCPN DURING THIS            
PERIOD UNDER A GENERAL DRY NW FLOW PATTERN. MAIN FCST ISSUE IS                  
POTENTIAL OF A MIDLEVEL LOW TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES                  
MIDWEEK. 00Z/12Z FEB9 ECWMF/GFS/GLOBAL CANADIAN RUNS WERE IN GOOD               
AGREEMENT ON SUCH A SCENARIO. THE 00Z/12Z FEB10 ECMWF RUNS STILL                
SHOW THIS SOLUTION (JUST SLIGHTLY W AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN FEB9               
RUNS). THE 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS RUNS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THE MIDLEVEL              
LOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND NOW ONLY SHOW AN OPEN WAVE SWINGING                
THRU THE UPPER LAKES WED OR KEEP MIDLEVEL LOW N OF LAKE SUPERIOR.               
THE 00Z GLOBAL CANADIAN SUPPORTS THE ECWMF...BUT WITH HEIGHTS NOT               
NEARLY AS LOW AS THE ECMWF (500MB HEIGHT WITH MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NE              
LWR MI 00Z THU IN THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS 180M HIGHER THAN THE                 
ECWMF). THE 00Z UKMET WHICH HAS SHOWN VERY POOR RUN-TO-RUN                      
CONSISTENCY DOES SUPPORT AN ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION BUT IS ABOUT                
24HR SLOWER WITH THE WHOLE PROGRESSION OF MIDLEVEL LOW. 12Z UKMET               
NOW LOOKS JUST LIKE THE ECWMF WITH TIMING AND DEPTH OF MIDLEVEL                 
SYSTEM. 12Z CANADIAN HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND FARTHER W WITH MIDLEVEL             
LOW AND JUST DRIFTS IT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED AND THU. AT               
THIS POINT...DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS FOR A SYSTEM 3-5DAYS OUT YET            
WON`T MAKE TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE BASIC WEATHER HERE AS ALL                 
SUGGEST A GENERAL NRLY FLOW LES PATTERN TUE/WED WITH LIKELY POPS                
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD               
BE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS                 
FAVORED BY NRLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS LATE TUE THRU WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH               
NON GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...                     
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO START HIGHLIGHTING                   
POSSIBILITY IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. LES WILL WIND DOWN WITH                    
MODERATING AIRMASS AND BACKING WINDS THU AND SHOULD ACTUALLY END FRI            
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE. DESPITE REASONABLE GFS/ECMWF                   
AGREEMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING NEXT                 
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING UPPER LAKES LATE FRI. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHC               
POPS FOR -SN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW            
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL RISE TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE END            
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS (UPDATE)                                                                   
JLA (SHORT TERM)                                                                
ROLFSON (LONG TERM)                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
947 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...A RELATIVELY BENIGN NIGHT ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN COMPARED TO             
NIGHTS RECENT NIGHTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH TO THE                   
SOUTH...WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST (PER              
00Z GRB SOUNDING) AND MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING LAKE                   
CONVECTION IN CHECK. 00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING THE RESULTS WITH THE              
INVERSION LOWERED BLO 875 MB AND DRYING OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOW            
LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS                   
REMAINING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TAKING ON A NEARLY            
SW FLOW ORIENTATION WHILE AREAS FURTHER INLAND LOOKING AT GENERALLY             
CLEAR SKIES AT THE MOMENT. UPSTREAM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN              
AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER SLIDING OUT OF WISCONSIN AND HEADING               
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NEXT             
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING QUICKLY SE ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG...                 
EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.                  
OVERNIGHT...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ANTICIPATED TO THE GOING FORECAST. LOW            
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND MORE WSW-W OVERNIGHT PER 00Z NAM             
AND RECENT RUC DATA. ENOUGH OVER LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINING BELOW               
THE INVERSION TO KEEP LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GOING             
PRIMARILY BETWEEN M-72 TO THE STRAITS IN NW LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT                 
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 875 MB/MARGINAL              
INSTABILITY (DELTA T`S IN THE MID TEENS) AND FURTHER LOW LEVEL                  
DRYING SLIDING OUT OF WISCONSIN...LOOKING AT ONLY MINOR ACCUMS.                 
PERHAPS AROUND HALF AN INCH OFF THE LONGEST FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN              
IN CHARLEVOIX/EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. FOR EVERYONE ELSE...AREA            
OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ADVANCING INTO THE REGION OVER THE              
NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING SCT-BKN CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. COMBINED             
WITH A PERSISTENT WIND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.            
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                         
DISCUSSION...ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1031 MB HIGH                   
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE              
OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO. APX RADAR SHOWED LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE                
MICHIGAN HAD A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WHILE BEGINNING TO BACK                  
TOWARD THE WEST. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE             
AROUND POPS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THEN POPS AND SNOWFALL                  
ACCUMULATIONS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.                                
TONIGHT...MEAN SURFACE-850 MB FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK INTO THE WEST              
OR EVEN WEST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND HOLDS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS            
DEFINITELY ON THE LEAN SIDE HOWEVER WITH MEAN 900-700 MB RH ONLY 30             
TO 40 PERCENT. PLUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY -13 TO -14C AND                
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE A PALTRY 2500 FEET OR SO. THEREFORE...ONLY                
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A                
HALF INCH. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES                   
EXPECTED. A WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES                
FROM FALLING BELOW ZERO WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST              
AREAS EXCEPT FOR AROUND 10 ABOVE NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.              
SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS                 
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO DURING THE DAY. ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR FORCING AND A             
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LATE IN THE DAY             
AND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST. IN                      
ADDITION...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON            
WITH MEAN 900-700 MB RH TO NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND            
60 TO 70 PERCENT IN EASTERN UPPER. ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN             
EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -13 AND -15C. THIS WILL               
OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WITH HIGH LIKELY              
POPS IN ORDER (70). WILL PENCIL IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF                        
ACCUMULATION FOR NOW IN THESE AREAS AS WELL AS IN THE WHITEFISH                 
POINT/PARADISE REGION AS WINDS VEER TO ONSHORE BEHIND SURFACE COLD              
FRONT WITH UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER                
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.                                                            
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN            
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE STRAITS SUNDAY                
EVENING...BEFORE EXITING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 12Z MONDAY.              
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT (80 PCT BTW 850/300 MB) WILL BE             
ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE                
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NOTED ALONG LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON                    
SHORELINES DUE TO LAKE EFFECTS. 925 AND 850 MB WINDS WILL BE TURNING            
THRU 12Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE AT 270 AT 00Z MONDAY...SHIFTING TO               
360 BY 12Z MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND                
4500 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ADDING TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL            
OVER FAVORED WEST TO NORTH SNOW BELTS. WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS             
UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THE MOMENT...AS BOTH THE FRONTAL POSITION            
AND WINDS WILL BE CHANGING QUICKLY. THE BEST SNOWFALL CHANCES SHOULD            
BE BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 06Z MONDAY...AS LAKE EFFECTS AND SYNOPTICS            
COMBINE. WITH 850 TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -16C...WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT             
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WILL NOT DROP TEMPS BELOW ZERO AS                   
SNOWFALL AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HINDER DRASTIC TEMPERATURE DROPS.               
MONDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE LAKES...WITH COLD              
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. 850 MB TEMPS DROP              
FROM AROUND -16C TO AROUND -20C...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SINKING SOUTH.            
850/300 MB RH DROPS FROM THE 80 PCT SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 40                   
PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. 925 AND 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY              
BETWEEN 350 AND 010...AS RIDGING SLIDES SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW             
INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER NRN LOWER AND EAST UPPER DROPPING TO AROUND              
3300 FEET. OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ONCE AGAIN                    
WITH...THE ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND              
MUCH DRIER AIR (900/700MB RH 40 TO 50 PCT). WILL KEEP MUCH OF NRN               
LWR MICHIGAN DRY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE                
MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. WILL HOWEVER KEEP A MENTION OF LAKE INDUCED               
SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN             
SHORELINES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN COLD...ONLY IN THE                 
TEENS...AS 850 AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DROPS...HOWEVER FULL              
MID FEB SUNSHINE WILL FEEL PRETTY GOOD.                                         
MONDAY NIGHT...MUCH THE SAME EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS MONDAY. LAKE              
EFFECTS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. 925 AND 850MB WINDS WILL TURN MORE            
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AS THE STRONG COLD AND DRY RIDGE FROM CENTRAL            
CANADA BUILDS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE LAKES REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS              
ONCE AGAIN SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 3000 FEET...AND              
900/700 MB RH REMAINS AROUND 40 PERCENT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME               
MENTION OF LAKE SNOW ALONG THE LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON IMMEDIATE               
LAKE SHORES. WILL MENTION MUCH COLDER LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED             
TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH COLDER 850 AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE                   
GENERATING A CLR SKIES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE            
CWA. WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 5              
BELOW ZERO.                                                                     
TUESDAY...AGAIN NORTHEAST LAKE EFFECTS THE MAIN ISSUE. 850 MB TEMPS             
ATTEMPT TO RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM                 
PUSHES UP INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER STRONG CANADIAN                
RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DRY AIR             
REMAINING. IT WILL BE HARD FOR MUCH CLOUD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS            
900/700 AND 850/300 MB RH REMAINS AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL KEEP            
SOME LIGHT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF               
LOWER MICHIGAN...AS 900/700 WINDS TURN EVEN MORE NORTHEAST TO AROUND            
030-040. INVERSIONS HEIGHT REMAIN LOW NEAR 3000 FEET. EXPECT SOME               
SUN AGAIN TUESDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PREVAIL. WILL GO A FEW            
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE TUESDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON SOLAR                           
HEATING...HOWEVER HIGHS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHS IN THE TEENS.                        
DAYS 4-7 (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH           
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE LAKES REGION AND                  
CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE                
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE...WITH PVA AFFECTING THE REGION IN               
THE BASE OF A 500 MB TROF...MOVING INTO ERN HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BE            
ENOUGH FOR A LEAST A CHC OF SHSN OVER THE CWA INTO THURSDAY. WINDS              
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS TURN MORE                     
NORTHWEST...AS THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES A BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE                
STRONG LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD              
AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LAKE SNOW                
BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TURNING                
WEST...TO ALMOST SOUTHWEST...AS THE NORTH ATLANTIC STORM PUSHES                 
FURTHER NORTH AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS SOUTH INTO THE               
EASTERN US AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO              
BE ON THE HORIZON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.                      
CURRENTLY...850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM FROM AROUND -20C                   
WEDNESDAY TO -8C ON SATURDAY.                                                   
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
436 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                             
H5 HEIGHTS INDICATE A RIDGE OVR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH TROUGHING            
OVR EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.            
POLAR VORTEX HAS SUNK INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH H5 HEIGHTS BLO 500             
DAM. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL SWING              
TOWARD THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON            
THE 280K SFC WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SWATH OF MID CLOUDS INTO SUN...BUT             
SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER S OVR WI WHERE LOWER LEVEL                  
MOISTENING IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE               
LAST WEEK...ANY PCPN OVR UPR MI WILL BE CAUSED BY LK SUPERIOR.                  
LES RIGHT NOW IS PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. INVERSION LOWERING BLO H9            
AS SEEN ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING/EARLY AFTN TAMDAR FM CYQT IS CAUSING               
THIS TREND. TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION CONTINUE TO WARM ALSO...                  
NEARING -15C BY 00Z. LOBES OF LARGE SCALE LIFT FM POLAR VORTEX                  
DROPPING TOWARD LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FM               
THE WEST SHOULD BOOST LES AFT MIDNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL WINDS ALSO                  
BECOME LESS SHEARED FM THE WEST AND CONVERGENCE PICKS UP FM SFC-H9              
AS WELL. SO...EXPECT LES TO GET SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE                
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF-ARW AND RUC13 INDICATE                   
GREATEST CONVERGENCE OVR KEWEENAW 09Z-18Z SUN AS NW WINDS OVR LK                
SUPERIOR MEET THE STUBBORN W/SW FLOW OVR LAND. EVEN WITH THESE                  
POSITIVES...INVERSION HEIGHTS STILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND H85...SO                
CONVECTIVE DEPTH DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. THIS WAS PRIMARY                 
REASON NOT TO GO WITH WARNING. INSTEAD...WILL ISSUE A LES/BLSN ADVY             
FOR KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ADDED BLSN AS EXPECT BLYR WINDS TO BE BTWN              
20-30 MPH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. WINDS SHIFTING NW IN MIXED                 
LAYER AFT 18Z SHOULD DIMINISH LES ON KEWEENAW SUN AFTN...SO WILL END            
ADVY AT THAT TIME. OTHER CONCERN IS OVR FAR NE CWA...WHERE AN ADVY              
MAY BE NEEDED ON SUN. NOT ISSUING THAT NOW SINCE IT IS STILL LATER              
IN THE SECOND PERIOD.                                                           
BACK TO WINDS...MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED LATELY WITH WIND SPEEDS OVR LK            
SUPERIOR. LAST TWO GALE EVENTS...NAM/GFS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED MAX                
WINDS BY 5-10KT AND IT IS HAPPENING AGAIN TODAY...WITH GALE FORCE               
GUSTS OBSERVED MOST DAY ON LK SUPERIOR AND 30 KT AT MOST IN MODEL               
GUIDANCE. SINCE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH H85 TONIGHT               
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES...WENT WITH GALE WARNING ON LK SUPERIOR THROUGH             
SUN AM.                                                                         
MOS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY SEEMED REASONABLE. LOWERED TEMPS OVR               
INLAND WEST HALF (5 TO 10 BLO ZERO) AS CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND             
FAIRLY LGT WINDS MAY RESULT IN TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY TOWARD CURRENT            
DEWPOINTS.                                                                      
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH SAT)...                                           
COLD FRONT REACHING THE KEWEENAW SUN AFTN WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA               
SUN EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -20 TO -24C                
RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF                
INSTABILITY FOR LES....NAM HAS COME AROUND TO THE GFS WITH RESPECT              
TO LOWER INVERSIONS OF 4-5KFT AND A LESS SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE                    
PROFILE. SO...AFTER INTIAL BURST OF SNOW WITH FROPA...LES SHOULD                
SETTLE DOWN TO A RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY THROUGH SUN NIGHT.                  
VEERING WINDS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING E THRU MANITOBA/ONTARIO WILL              
ALSO KEEP BANDS SHIFTING...KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS DOWN. IN                       
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE ANOTHER NEGATIVE.              
HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT LOCAL CONVERGENCE OR EVEN A                
MESOLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AS VEERING LARGE                 
SCALE WINDS ARE ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO TO TAKE ON A                
MORE ERLY COMPONENT OVER ERN SUPERIOR. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON              
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL HVY LES IN MARQUETTE OR                
ALGER COUNTIES LATE SUN NIGHT.                                                  
ON MON...WINDS CONTINUING VEERING TO A NE DIRECTION...BUT THERE IS              
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO INVERSION HEIGHTS/MOISTURE PROFILES.              
SO...LES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE (SUB ADVY ACCUMULATIONS). IF             
A MESOLOW DOES DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN NIGHT...              
SNOW COULD BE LOCALLY HVY THRU MON MORNING OVER A SMALL PART OF                 
NCNTL UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH CORE OF COLDEST AIR PASSES JUST NE OF FCST             
AREA...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO REACH 10F OVER THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCNTL FCST AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING                  
AROUND -22C.                                                                    
TUE THRU SAT...OTHER THAN LES...THERE WON`T BE MUCH PCPN DURING THIS            
PERIOD UNDER A GENERAL DRY NW FLOW PATTERN. MAIN FCST ISSUE IS                  
POTENTIAL OF A MIDLEVEL LOW TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES                  
MIDWEEK. 00Z/12Z FEB9 ECWMF/GFS/GLOBAL CANADIAN RUNS WERE IN GOOD               
AGREEMENT ON SUCH A SCENARIO. THE 00Z/12Z FEB10 ECMWF RUNS STILL                
SHOW THIS SOLUTION (JUST SLIGHTLY W AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN FEB9               
RUNS). THE 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS RUNS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THE MIDLEVEL              
LOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND NOW ONLY SHOW AN OPEN WAVE SWINGING                
THRU THE UPPER LAKES WED OR KEEP MIDLEVEL LOW N OF LAKE SUPERIOR.               
THE 00Z GLOBAL CANADIAN SUPPORTS THE ECWMF...BUT WITH HEIGHTS NOT               
NEARLY AS LOW AS THE ECMWF (500MB HEIGHT WITH MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NE              
LWR MI 00Z THU IN THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS 180M HIGHER THAN THE                 
ECWMF). THE 00Z UKMET WHICH HAS SHOWN VERY POOR RUN-TO-RUN                      
CONSISTENCY DOES SUPPORT AN ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION BUT IS ABOUT                
24HR SLOWER WITH THE WHOLE PROGRESSION OF MIDLEVEL LOW. 12Z UKMET               
NOW LOOKS JUST LIKE THE ECWMF WITH TIMING AND DEPTH OF MIDLEVEL                 
SYSTEM. 12Z CANADIAN HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND FARTHER W WITH MIDLEVEL             
LOW AND JUST DRIFTS IT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED AND THU. AT               
THIS POINT...DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS FOR A SYSTEM 3-5DAYS OUT YET            
WON`T MAKE TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE BASIC WEATHER HERE AS ALL                 
SUGGEST A GENERAL NRLY FLOW LES PATTERN TUE/WED WITH LIKELY POPS                
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD               
BE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS                 
FAVORED BY NRLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS LATE TUE THRU WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH               
NON GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...                     
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO START HIGHLIGHTING                   
POSSIBILITY IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. LES WILL WIND DOWN WITH                    
MODERATING AIRMASS AND BACKING WINDS THU AND SHOULD ACTUALLY END FRI            
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE. DESPITE REASONABLE GFS/ECMWF                   
AGREEMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING NEXT                 
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING UPPER LAKES LATE FRI. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHC               
POPS FOR -SN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW            
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL RISE TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE END            
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLSN ADVY 06Z UNTIL 18Z SUN MIZ001-003.                   
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA (SHORT TERM)                                                                
ROLFSON (LONG TERM)                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
335 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW ARCTIC BRANCH              
FLOW ALF OVER THE GRT LKS BTWN PERSISTENT HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN             
CAN AND VORTEX CENTERED IN SE CAN. ONE SHRTWV EMBBEDDED WITHIN THIS             
FLOW HAS TRACKED ACRS NRN WI INTO NRN LWR MI TNGT WHILE ANOTHER HAS             
DROPPED SE THRU NW ONTARIO TOWARD ANJ. THE TRACK OF THESE SHRTWVS               
HAS CAUSED LLVL WINDS TO VEER MORE NW THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS...WHICH            
HAS RESULTED IN LES THAT WAS MAINLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND OVER THE              
OPEN WATERS OF ERN LK SUP TO SHIFT INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY AND INTO               
ALGER/LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. MQT 88D SHOWS HIER                         
REFLECTIVITIES IN THE BANDS TO THE E ARE FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT A FEW             
RETURNS IN THE 24-28DBZ RANGE NOTED WITHIN THE CLOSER BANDS. NW GALE            
FORCE WINDS OBSVD AT PILM4/STDM4...AND WIND GUSTS ARND 40 MPH NOTED             
AT P59. LES APPEARS WEAKER OVER THE WRN ZNS WITH SHORTER FETCH                  
(LIMITED BY SOME ICE COVG) AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LO INVRNS ARND               
H9-925 NOTED ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS AND 03Z TAMDAR SDNG FM CYQT AS            
WELL AS DRY SUB INVRN LYR (SFC DWPTS UPSTREAM OF WRN LK SUP IN THE              
-15C TO -20C RANGE). HOWEVER...INL SDNG DOES SHOW SOME MSTR ABV THE             
INVRN BTWN H925-825. 00Z APX SDNG/TAMDAR SDNG FM CIU HINT THAT INVRN            
IN AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LK MODERATION IS H8-85. OVER THE INTERIOR                
ZNS...SKIES ARE CLR-PCLDY...AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN AOB 0F AT A NUMBER            
OF SPOTS. OTRW...SHRTWV RDGING NOTED BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA            
BEHIND ONTARIO SHRTWV. 00Z YQD SDNG IS QUITE DRY (PWAT 0.06 INCH)               
AND EXCESSIVELY STABLE (INVRN BASE H95).                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REVOLVE ARND LES TRENDS/             
AMTS/HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW ARCTIC BRANCH             
FLOW AND DROP SE OVER THE GRT LKS.                                              
FOR TDAY...SHRTWV RDGING OVER SCNTRL CAN PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO THE              
UPR GRT LKS. GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN BASE AT ERY DROPPING FM              
H85 THIS MRNG TO H9 BY 00Z SUN WHILE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE W. INVRN              
BASE AT CMX FCST TO DROP FM H875 TO H9 (GFS) OR EVEN H925 (NAM) BY              
THIS EVNG WITH ARPCH OF RDG. ALTHOUGH MOIST H9-85 LYR ON THE INL                
SDNG MAY SUSTAIN THE LES THRU THE MRNG...SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL REALLY             
WANE THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR W-NW OF INL AND LOWER INVRN            
BASE. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER THE E/SHIFTING                
NATURE OF LES BANDS SO FAR HAVE PROBABLY LIMITED SN ACCUMULATION                
THERE...WL EXTEND LES/BLSN ADVY (BLSN PER GALE FORCE WINDS OBSVD                
OVER LK SUP) THRU THE MRNG FOR ALGER/LUCE ZNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDOW             
OF BETTER MSTR/FVRBL WIND DIRECTION BEFORE INVRN FALLS/FLOW BACKS               
TOO WSW LATER IN THE AFTN AND DRIER SUB INVRN AIR ARRIVES. DESPITE              
POTENTIAL FOR FVRBL DENDRITIC SN GROWTH WITH MIXED LYR TEMPS IN THE             
-12C TO -20C RANGE...STEADILY SHIFTING WINDS/LLVL CNVGC AFT 15Z                 
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRNG SN AMTS. OVER THE INLAND                    
ZNS...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY-MOSUNNY. CONSIDERING THE HI STABILITY              
OF UPSTREAM AIRMASS/ MAX TEMPS ON FRI/BETTER RECENT VERIFICATION OF             
THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE...WL TEND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS                   
GUIDANCE FOR HI TEMPS TDAY.                                                     
TNGT...GFS/NAM SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING INTO THE UPR GRT LKS FM             
SCNTRL CAN. THIS WAVE IS RATHER SHEARED HOWEVER...SO THE FCST IMPACT            
ON INVRN HGT APPEARS TO BE RATHER MINIMAL. THE GFS SHOWS SOMEWHAT               
MORE RESPONSE AT CMX WITH INVRN BASE RISING FM H9 TO H875 WITH SOME             
LO-MID LVL MOISTENING AS WELL. WITH FLOW BACKING TO A MORE 260                  
DIRECTION...EXPECT LES OVER THE W TO SHIFT TO MAINLY JUST THE                   
KEWEENAW. IN FACT...RECENT RUC13 SHOWS FLOW ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE             
BACKING SUFFICIENTLY THAT MODEL QPF IS ALMOST ENTIRELY N OF CMX. IF             
UPSTREAM AIRMASS WERE MOISTER/SHRTWV STRONGER/INVRN HIER AND ICE                
OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF WRN LK SUP WERE ABSENT...POTENTIAL FOR MORE            
INTENSE DOMINANT BAND IN LAND BREEZE/SYNOPTIC SCALE WNW FLOW CNVGC              
RUNNING THE LENGTH OF WRN LK SUP TO CAUSE HEAVY SN WOULD BE HI.                 
HOWEVER... NEGATIVES MENTIONED ABV SUG MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WL BE A             
SUB ADVY EVENT...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES FCST OVER HIER TERRAIN N OF CMX            
PER RUC13 QPF ARND 0.15 INCH AND FVRBL SN/WATER RATIO. SINCE TEMPS              
ARND -15C WITHIN MIXED LYR ARE FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH...                 
REMAIN WARY OF POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SN WITH PERSISTENT LLVL CNVGC.                
OVER THE E... INCRSG LAND BREEZE WSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH LINGERING LES             
INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF ERN LK SUP...BUT WL RETAIN CHC POPS NEAR THE            
SHORE E OF THE PIX ROCKS IN CASE FLOW ABV SHALLOW ARCTIC. SKIES WL              
BE MARRED BY ONLY SOME HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV OVER THE              
INTERIOR...WITH TEMPS NEAR LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH LAND BREEZE/             
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR DESPITE STEADY W WIND/SOME HI CLD.                           
A MORE IMPORTANT SHRTWV/COLD FNT IS FCST TO APRCH ON SUN WITH DPVA/             
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS FCST BY GFS/NAM/CNDN                 
MODELS TO RAISE INVRN BASE OVER THE NW AND E TOWARD H8 AND MOISTEN              
THE LLVLS. CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SN LATER SAT NGT                
OVER THE KEWEENAW AND APRCH OF THIS SYS/FVRBL TEMPS FOR DENDRITIC SN            
GROWTH BEFORE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR LATE BEHIND THE COLD FROPA...               
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN LES WATCH FOR THAT AREA SAT NGT INTO SUN BEFORE             
SHIFTING WINDS TO A MORE UNFVRBL 330 DIRECTION IN THE AFTN DIMINISH             
THE ACTIVITY THERE. RUC13 SHOWS WSHFT EARLIER IN THE MRNG...BUT                 
NAM/GFS HOLD ON TO FVRBL 270-280 FLOW LONGER UNDER INCRSG DPVA. HAVE            
TO ADMIT DOUBTS ABOUT ICE COVER/SHORTER FETCH/UPSTREAM DRY AIR MIGHT            
CUT BACK ON SN AMTS...BUT CONFIDENT ENUF THAT AT LEAST AN ADVY SN WL            
OCCUR SAT NGT THRU SUN MRNG. SINCE MAIN SN BAND WL BE OFFSHORE OVER             
THE E WHEN THE SHARPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE...WL HOLD OFF ON ANY                     
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES THERE ATTM. AS LLVL WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NNW SUN            
NGT...MORE SGNFT LES WL SHIFT MORE TOWARD IWD/MQT.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY UNTIL 17Z SAT MIZ006-007.               
 LES WATCH 03Z-22Z SUN MIZ001-003.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
845 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAJOR SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE HEADED OUR WAY IS EASILY EVIDENT              
ON CONUS-SCALE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL              
BE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE            
ARKLAMISS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE IS                  
CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SO IT HAS             
A LONG WAY TO GO AND THEREFORE THE ONSET OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE            
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY WILL              
BE GRADUAL. IR IMAGERY SHOWS LOWER CLOUDS FORMED THROUGH WARM AIR               
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PROCESSES TO BE THICKEST WEST OF THE MS RIVER            
THIS EVENING...WITH THOSE CLOUDS MUCH MORE SPORADIC OVER MS. THIS               
GENERAL TREND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE                            
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE SUBTLY ON THE INCREASE FROM THE                 
WEST TOWARD DAWN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME               
LIGHT RAIN TO THE SURFACE BY MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON TOMORROW ALONG AND             
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO                
BACK OFF THE ADVANCE OF CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FEATURES WITH THE                    
INCOMING SYSTEM SO MOST MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE REGION SHOULD HOLD             
OFF UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.                                                       
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MENTIONED CLOUD REGIME WILL BE VERY                 
TRICKY SINCE RAD COOLING POTENTIAL WILL BE GOOD IN AREAS OF CLEAR               
SKIES. TWEAKED FORECAST MINS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND            
THE EXPECTATION THAT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY RISE IN MOST AREAS TOWARDS             
DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS INCREASE. OVERALL TEMP FORECAST NOT FAR FROM                 
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...REDUCED POPS 5 TO 15 POINTS IN                
MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW DUE TO ABOVE REASONING...ALTHOUGH LEAVING               
NUMBERS IN THE UPPER DELTA ALONE WHERE LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL STILL               
DEEMED BEST. /BB/                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH                
MIDDAY TUESDAY...AT WHICH POINT WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL             
COMMON. EXPECTING MOST CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR TONIGHT...BUT THEN                
DECREASING AT LEAST INTERMITTENT TO MVFR EARLY TUESDAY FROM THE AXIS            
OF THE MS EASTWARD. MAIN CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP COMING IN LATER                 
TOMORROW WILL BE CONFINED NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.              
/BB/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) LATEST                    
SATELLITE VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT             
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM.                
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS               
LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS            
SHOWS EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION COMING INTO THE REGION                
FROM THE WEST. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE             
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                                       
LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME SEVERE                  
WEATHER ON MONDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. CLOUDS WILL                    
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW               
LEVEL FLOW AND THETA ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                   
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN            
PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. FOR MONDAY THINGS               
START TO GET A LITTLE INTERESTING. WE WILL GET SOME WARM AIR                    
ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.             
IT WILL ADVECT SOME 40S AND 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH               
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SOME GOOD 500 DKM HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH THE               
REGION DURING THE FROM THE PLAINS(70 DKM). IN THE JET DEPARTMENT A              
STRONG UPPER JET OF AROUND 150 KNOTS PUNCHES INTO THE SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS TOWARD THE REGION...WHICH WILL AFFECT US ON MONDAY NIGHT.                
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. WE WILL HAVE JUST              
ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MONDAY                   
MORNING THEN MIX IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY ALONG               
AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE             
SOME GOOD COOLING ALOFT WITH -16C TO -18C COMING INTO THE REGION                
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY NIGHT THINGS COME TOGETHER FOR A              
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE PLAINS                
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHES                   
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE NIGHT. JET DYNAMICS COME INTO              
PLAY AS WE WILL GET INTO THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 160 PLUS KNOT JET             
BY EARLY TUESDAY. WE WILL ALSO GET INTO THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 70               
KNOT JET AT 500 MB. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL ALOFT WITH -45C AT 300             
MB AND 500 MB TEMPS AT -18 TO -21C...WHICH COULD SPELL SOME GOOD                
HAIL RISKS. THERE WILL BE 100 PLUS DKM HEIGHT FALLS COMING INTO THE             
REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH SPELL GOOD FOLDING OF THE TROP. WITH            
THIS SCENARIO SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN              
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. DURING THE NIGHT DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP TO            
THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S...WHICH MEANS THE CONVECTION WILL BE                     
ELEVATED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOWER            
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EVOLVE DURING THE NIGHT. AS FAR AS LOW                 
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS CONCERN LIFTED INDEXES -1 TO -5 I-55 ON                    
WESTWARD...SHOWALTER INDEX 0 TO -2...PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE              
INCH...CAPE AROUND 500...AND LAPSE RATES 6-8C.                                  
TIMING WISE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE DELTA               
REGION FROM THE 8 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME...THE NATCHEZ TRACE TO I-55             
CORRIDOR TO BE FROM MIDNIGHT TO 4 AM...THEN THE EAST MISSISSIPPI                
REGION FROM 3 TO 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND                
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE                     
WEATHER.                                                                        
THE PRIMARY RISKS FOR THIS SEVERE EVENT WILL PRIMARILY BE HAIL WITH             
A LESS RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL SIZE WISE LOOKING AT UP TO                 
QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL DURING THE NIGHT. IF WE DO GET                   
ISOLATED TORNADOES...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST IF            
60 PLUS DEWPOINTS SNEAK INTO THAT AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK.                         
LOOKING AT SURFACE WINDS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWEST            
OF THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION.             
GUIDANCE HAD GRIDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE DELTA REGION...SO PUT IN           
GUST GRIDS OF APPROACHING 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL BRING US TO POSSIBLE            
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE WILL BE ESPECIALLY            
TRUE ACROSS THE DELTA REGION.                                                   
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO                     
GUIDANCE. WITH POPS WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR MONDAY AND               
MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.                                          
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...TWO MAIN             
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO DISCUSS. FIRST WILL BE THE EXTENDED SVR             
RISK ON TUE THEN A SHIFT TO COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF              
THE WEEK.                                                                       
WITH MOST OF THE SVR STORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6            
AM...THE START OF THE TUE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE QUITE. THAT WILL NOT            
LAST REAL LONG FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS I WILL DISCUSS. BASED ON THE               
PROGRESSION OF THINGS...I REALLY DON`T EXPECT THE MAIN AXIS OF                  
STORMS TO LINGER PAST 6 AM. JUST TO COVER ANY TIMING ISSUES...I WILL            
HAVE SOME WX GOING FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TUE PERIOD FOR THE            
FAR EASTERN CWA. WHAT I AM EXPECTING IS THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH (AND             
ASSOCIATED WX) TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 5-7 AM AS THE UPPER             
TROUGH TAKES ON NEG TILT AND THE DRY SLOT SURGES EAST. THIS DRY SLOT            
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CWA QUIET THROUGH LATE MORNING OR AROUND NOON.            
THE KEY NOW BECOMES THE POSITION AND PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND             
COLD FRONT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS PROGRESSION             
AND THE LATEST ONE IS NO DIFFERENT. THIS HAS HUGE IMPACTS ON THE                
FORECAST FOR TUE NOW. AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA...COLDER              
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT H5) WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN ALREADY STEEP LAPSE              
RATES! COMBINE THIS WITH SFC TEMPS BETWEEN 65-73 IN ADVANCE OF THE              
SFC FRONT AND THE REGION WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. THIS UNSTABLE               
AIR WILL LIKELY GET REALIZED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS FRONTAL FORCING              
OCCURS WITH THE SE PUSH OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. THE FRONT WON`T FIRE               
STORMS EVERYWHERE DUE TO SOME LOCATIONS BEING CAPED AND IN A                    
UNFAVORABLE LOCATION DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL             
JET. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A GREENVILLE TO                    
CARTHAGE TO QUITMAN LINE WILL BE LOCATED N OF THE H5 JET STREAK AND             
WITHIN THE VERY FAVORABLE CYCLONICALLY CURVED SIDE OF THIS JET.                 
AREAS S OF THAT WILL BE UNDER THE JET CORE (NOT FAVORABLE) AND                  
BATTLING LOW-LEVEL CAPPING. THE THING ABOUT THE NORTHERN AREA IS                
THAT IT WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE FRONT AND ITS FORCING MOVE                
THROUGH...SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS             
TIME...1000-1500 MLCAPE AND -5 TO -8 LI LOOK TO BE PRESENT WITH THE             
MLCAPE OF THE "FAT" VARIETY.                                                    
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THIS POINTS TO A SECONDARY SVR WX RISK FOR             
LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...AN AREA               
ALONG AND NORTH OF A GREENVILLE TO CARTHAGE TO QUITMAN LINE SEEM                
UNDER THE GUN. THIS THERMODYNAMIC SETUP REALLY FAVORS LARGE                     
HAIL...AT LEAST TO GOLF BALL SIZE IF NOT NOT LARGER. I EXPECT SCT               
SUPERCELL STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG AN IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC             
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST            
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL. THINGS SHOULD                  
EVOLVE QUICKLY AND BE DONE WITH OR OUT OF THE CWA BY 21-23Z AS                  
UNFAVORABLE JET LEVEL WINDS WILL MOVE IN BY LATE AFTERNOON.                     
WITH THAT DONE NOW DONE...BUNDLE UP AND GET READY FOR ANOTHER SHOT              
OF COLD WX. AS THE FRONT PUSH SE AND THROUGH THE CWA...DON`T BE                 
SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT RA...SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRIZZLE AS THE                    
LOW-LEVELS GET SQUEEZED. CLOUDS HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY              
TUE AS CAA REMAINS STRONG.                                                      
AS FOR TEMPS...I FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUID TEMPS ON TUE AND ACTUALLY               
BUMPED A FEW SITES UP A TAD BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AREAS ALONG            
AND SE OF THE TRACE WILL LIKELY SEE 66-73 DEGREES TUE AFTERNOON.                
THINGS TURN COLD TUE NIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW LATEST GUID WITH AROUND              
30 N TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...CURRENT LOW            
TEMPS WERE GOOD AND STAYED BASICALLY WITH WHAT WE HAD WITH FEW                  
TWEAKS. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO GO COLDER WITH HIGHS WED/THU. I                
STAYED CONSERVATIVE AND WENT WITH UPPER 30S N TO LOWER/MID 40S                  
SOUTH. I COULD ACTUALLY KNOCK OFF 3-5 MORE DEGREES.                             
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
240 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR             
IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF            
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. LATEST VISIBLE                  
IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND                
ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS                    
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION COMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE             
WEST. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                                             
LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER          
ON MONDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS            
THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THETA          
ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE     
WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF             
LOW PRESSURE. FOR MONDAY THINGS START TO GET A LITTLE INTERESTING.              
WE WILL GET SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE          
REGION DURING THE DAY. IT WILL ADVECT SOME 40S AND 50S DEWPOINTS                
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SOME GOOD 500 DKM HEIGHT          
FALLS APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE FROM THE PLAINS(70 DKM). IN THE            
JET DEPARTMENT A STRONG UPPER JET OF AROUND 150 KNOTS PUNCHES INTO THE          
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE REGION...WHICH WILL AFFECT US ON MONDAY              
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. WE WILL HAVE JUST       
ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MONDAY                   
MORNING THEN MIX IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST      
OF THE MS RIVER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME GOOD            
COOLING ALOFT WITH -16C TO -18C COMING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY              
AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY NIGHT THINGS COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE          
WEATHER. THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE PLAINS BECOME NEGATIVELY              
TILTED AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS           
DURING THE NIGHT. JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY AS WE WILL GET INTO THE           
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 160 PLUS KNOT JET BY EARLY TUESDAY. WE WILL ALSO GET       
INTO THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 70 KNOT JET AT 500 MB. TEMPS WILL BE                
QUITE COOL ALOFT WITH -45C AT 300 MB AND 500 MB TEMPS AT -18 TO                 
-21C...WHICH COULD SPELL SOME GOOD HAIL RISKS. THERE WILL BE 100                
PLUS DKM HEIGHT FALLS COMING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY                           
TUESDAY...WHICH SPELL GOOD FOLDING OF THE TROP. WITH THIS SCENARIO              
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE MID TO                 
UPPER LEVELS. DURING THE NIGHT DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP TO THE LOWER             
TO UPPER 50S...WHICH MEANS THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. EXPECT              
THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL             
DYNAMICS EVOLVE DURING THE NIGHT. AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS            
CONCERN LIFTED INDEXES -1 TO -5 I-55 ON WESTWARD...SHOWALTER INDEX              
0 TO -2...PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE INCH...CAPE AROUND 500...AND            
LAPSE RATES 6-8C.                                                               
TIMING WISE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE DELTA REGION        
FROM THE 8 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME...THE NATCHEZ TRACE TO I-55 CORRIDOR           
TO BE FROM MIDNIGHT TO 4 AM...THEN THE EAST MISSISSIPPI REGION FROM             
3 TO 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF                    
INTERSTATE 55 WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.                    
THE PRIMARY RISKS FOR THIS SEVERE EVENT WILL PRIMARILY BE HAIL WITH             
A LESS RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL SIZE WISE LOOKING AT UP TO                 
QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL DURING THE NIGHT. IF WE DO GET                   
ISOLATED TORNADOES...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST IF            
60 PLUS DEWPOINTS SNEAK INTO THAT AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK.                         
LOOKING AT SURFACE WINDS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWEST            
OF THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION.             
GUIDANCE HAD GRIDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE DELTA REGION...SO PUT IN           
GUST GRIDS OF APPROACHING 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL BRING US TO POSSIBLE            
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE       
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION.                                                        
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO                     
GUIDANCE. WITH POPS WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR MONDAY AND               
MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.                                          
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...TWO MAIN             
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO DISCUSS. FIRST WILL BE THE EXTENDED SVR             
RISK ON TUE THEN A SHIFT TO COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF              
THE WEEK.                                                                       
WITH MOST OF THE SVR STORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6            
AM...THE START OF THE TUE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE QUITE. THAT WILL NOT            
LAST REAL LONG FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS I WILL DISCUSS. BASED ON THE               
PROGRESSION OF THINGS...I REALLY DON`T EXPECT THE MAIN AXIS OF                  
STORMS TO LINGER PAST 6 AM. JUST TO COVER ANY TIMING ISSUES...I WILL            
HAVE SOME WX GOING FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TUE PERIOD FOR THE            
FAR EASTERN CWA. WHAT I AM EXPECTING IS THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH (AND             
ASSOCIATED WX) TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 5-7 AM AS THE UPPER             
TROUGH TAKES ON NEG TILT AND THE DRY SLOT SURGES EAST. THIS DRY SLOT            
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CWA QUIET THROUGH LATE MORNING OR AROUND NOON.            
THE KEY NOW BECOMES THE POSITION AND PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND             
COLD FRONT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS PROGRESSION             
AND THE LATEST ONE IS NO DIFFERENT. THIS HAS HUGE IMPACTS ON THE                
FORECAST FOR TUE NOW. AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA...COLDER              
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT H5) WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN ALREADY STEEP LAPSE              
RATES! COMBINE THIS WITH SFC TEMPS BETWEEN 65-73 IN ADVANCE OF THE              
SFC FRONT AND THE REGION WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. THIS UNSTABLE               
AIR WILL LIKELY GET REALIZED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS FRONTAL FORCING              
OCCURS WITH THE SE PUSH OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. THE FRONT WON`T FIRE               
STORMS EVERYWHERE DUE TO SOME LOCATIONS BEING CAPED AND IN A                    
UNFAVORABLE LOCATION DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL             
JET. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A GREENVILLE TO                    
CARTHAGE TO QUITMAN LINE WILL BE LOCATED N OF THE H5 JET STREAK AND             
WITHIN THE VERY FAVORABLE CYCLONICALLY CURVED SIDE OF THIS JET.                 
AREAS S OF THAT WILL BE UNDER THE JET CORE (NOT FAVORABLE) AND                  
BATTLING LOW-LEVEL CAPPING. THE THING ABOUT THE NORTHERN AREA IS                
THAT IT WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE FRONT AND ITS FORCING MOVE                
THROUGH...SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS             
TIME...1000-1500 MLCAPE AND -5 TO -8 LI LOOK TO BE PRESENT WITH THE             
MLCAPE OF THE "FAT" VARIETY.                                                    
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THIS POINTS TO A SECONDARY SVR WX RISK FOR             
LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...AN AREA               
ALONG AND NORTH OF A GREENVILLE TO CARTHAGE TO QUITMAN LINE SEEM                
UNDER THE GUN. THIS THERMODYNAMIC SETUP REALLY FAVORS LARGE                     
HAIL...AT LEAST TO GOLF BALL SIZE IF NOT NOT LARGER. I EXPECT SCT               
SUPERCELL STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG AN IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC             
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST            
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL. THINGS SHOULD                  
EVOLVE QUICKLY AND BE DONE WITH OR OUT OF THE CWA BY 21-23Z AS                  
UNFAVORABLE JET LEVEL WINDS WILL MOVE IN BY LATE AFTERNOON.                     
WITH THAT DONE NOW DONE...BUNDLE UP AND GET READY FOR ANOTHER SHOT              
OF COLD WX. AS THE FRONT PUSH SE AND THROUGH THE CWA...DON`T BE                 
SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT RA...SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRIZZLE AS THE                    
LOW-LEVELS GET SQUEEZED. CLOUDS HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY              
TUE AS CAA REMAINS STRONG.                                                      
AS FOR TEMPS...I FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUID TEMPS ON TUE AND ACTUALLY               
BUMPED A FEW SITES UP A TAD BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AREAS ALONG            
AND SE OF THE TRACE WILL LIKELY SEE 66-73 DEGREES TUE AFTERNOON.                
THINGS TURN COLD TUE NIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW LATEST GUID WITH AROUND              
30 N TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...CURRENT LOW            
TEMPS WERE GOOD AND STAYED BASICALLY WITH WHAT WE HAD WITH FEW                  
TWEAKS. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO GO COLDER WITH HIGHS WED/THU. I                
STAYED CONSERVATIVE AND WENT WITH UPPER 30S N TO LOWER/MID 40S                  
SOUTH. I COULD ACTUALLY KNOCK OFF 3-5 MORE DEGREES                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       39  64  54  66 /   8  26  97  44                                  
MERIDIAN      35  64  50  70 /   5  14  90  71                                  
VICKSBURG     42  63  55  62 /   9  38 100  23                                  
HATTIESBURG   38  66  53  73 /   6   8  74  30                                  
NATCHEZ       44  65  56  65 /  11  35  99  12                                  
GREENVILLE    40  60  52  58 /  12  54 100  54                                  
GREENWOOD     38  61  54  60 /   9  40 100  67                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 17                                                         
LONG TERM: CME                                                                  
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
515 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS AS A SIGNIFICANT               
WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION. GFS/NAM/SREF ARE IN GOOD                   
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. DID NOTICE              
THAT LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE SURFACE LOW A TAD                 
FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS ALSO CLOSE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL                
SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS A TAD FASTER THAN THE             
NAM. PRIMARY DIFFERENCES...ALTHOUGH MINOR...ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE             
MASS FIELDS...AND THEY COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON THE                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER. OVERALL FELT THE GFS/SREF OFFER THE BEST                      
CONTINUITY WITH A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE GFS QPF...AT LEAST                 
INITIALLY.                                                                      
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE EFFECTIVELY DRAWN UP WARMER MORE            
MOIST AIR. NOW THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN TEMPERATURES OVER             
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD ONLY DRIFT DOWNWARD WHILE AN                
EARLY EVENING LOW ANTICIPATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE               
REBOUNDING ONCE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE MOVE IN THIS EVENING.                   
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERALL GRIDS ON PLACEMENT              
AND TIMING OF THE DIFFERENT WEATHER TYPES. SLEET NOT AS MUCH OF AN              
ISSUE BUT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BECOME A MORE             
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. STILL EXPECTING AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO             
SET UP BY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MO. ONCE THE FRONT SETS              
UP IT SHOULD HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND WAIT TILL               
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. ONCE THAT OCCURS              
THE COLDER AIR NECESSARY TO SUFFICIENTLY COOL THE COLUMN FOR A                  
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD. RIGHT NOW THAT LOOKS LIKE             
IT WILL BEGIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.             
UNTIL THEN INSPECTION OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LACK OF ICE             
CRYSTALS ACROSS NORTHERN MO SO FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE               
PRIMARY WEATHER TYPE WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY              
LINE SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN. THAT BEING SAID WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE              
ON MORNING TEMPERATURES AND ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE EXTREME                  
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE FURTHEST FROM THE MORE MOIST AIR             
AND MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE START OF THE MORNING FOR SOME PATCHY              
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING THE DAY.            
PRIMARY LIFT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
CENTERED ON THE 300K SURFACE AND PRONOUNCED SLOPED FRONTOGENIC                  
FORCING WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW RATES ACROSS NORTHERN MO. STILL               
CONCERNED ABOUT THE 3-4 G/KG OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW                     
PRODUCTION BUT TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE BEST                  
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS NOW CENTERED BELOW THE FAVORED DENDRITIC              
GROWTH ZONE. IF THIS REGION OF UVV SHIFTS UPWARDS THEN LATER                    
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS.                        
LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF                      
CONVECTION. EXPECT ANY THUNDER ON MONDAY TO OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF THE             
CWA BUT IF THE MODELS SHIFT THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH THEN THIS WILL              
NEED TO BE REVISITED. PVU PROGS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR                     
CONVECTIVE SNOWS WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH FORMS LATE MONDAY            
NIGHT OVER EASTERN KS. THIS WAS PRIMARY REASON TO EXTEND THE WINTER             
STORM WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL LAST             
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER                
WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO              
MEET WARNING CRITERIA. STILL A WAYS OUT BUT JUST ANOTHER ITEM TO                
CONSIDER.                                                                       
MJ                                                                              
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...                                                             
FOR A COUPLE DAYS FOLLOWING THE EARLY WORK WEEK WINTER STORM                    
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW                   
NORMAL. A COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL FLOW SOUTH AS THE WINTER STORM                 
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE PLAINS. TRENDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY                      
TEMPERATURES DOWN AS A RESULT. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A SLOW BEGINNING             
TO A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.                          
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO                 
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE FLOW             
ACROSS THE PACIFIC SPLITS. THIS MAKES FOR A MESSY PATTERN IN THE                
OFFING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AND BY MESSY I MEAN HARD            
TO PIN DOWN WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE                
BACK TOWARDS SEASONALLY NORMAL VALUES AS THE PROGGED WEST COAST                 
RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF ANY               
WAVES AND THEIR TIMING IS VERY POOR OWING TO THE SPLIT FLOW.                    
THEREFORE...HAVE AVOIDED ATTACHING POPS TO ANY OF THE SHORTWAVES                
PROGGED TO COMING ZIPPING THROUGH PLAINS OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE              
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                                          
CUTTER                                                                          
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
505 AM...                                                                       
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT                
WINTER STORM ACROSS THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.                            
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER             
THE REGION WITH THE ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER PRODUCING UPPER WAVE             
FINALLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS                   
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR                
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING                
UPPER SYSTEM.                                                                   
FORECAST GRIDS GENERALLY SIDED TOWARD THE GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE AS              
THEY HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THERMAL FIELDS AND THE GFS              
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT WITH THE HEAVIER QPF.               
INITIAL CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO REDUCE POPS TONIGHT FROM LIKELY              
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT WON`T BE REACHING           
THE AREA UNTIL TOWARD DAWN. IN ADDITION...THE 21Z RUN OF THE SREF WAS           
POINTING MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF CHANCE POPS.                                  
STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND HOW FAST THE                
COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE             
RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MEAN             
SREF DATA SHOWS BOTH THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE AND 0 DEG C LINE AT              
850 MB ONLY MAKING VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON              
MONDAY...WITH THE PROGGED FREEZING LINE NOT MAKING IT TO THE METRO              
AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GFS POINT                     
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT AND THERE IS CONCERN            
REGARDING HOW MUCH THE EXPECTED STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL COOL THE            
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.                                                               
THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG OMEGAS AND MID-           
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA                 
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70                
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY GET THE BEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST QPFS IS THIS             
FORCING PANS OUT. WILL START OUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA AS ALL RAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WINTERY MIX ACROSS OUR FAR             
NORTHERN 2 OR 3 TIERS OF COUNTIES. WILL ANTICIPATE THAT COLD AIR WILL           
MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND TRANSITION NORTHERN AREAS TO MAINLY              
SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70                  
CORRIDOR STARTING TO GET A WINTRY MIX...BUT RAIN HOLDING ON ACROSS              
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DURATION OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY                 
LATE MONDAY EVENING...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW.            
POINT SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE LONG PERIODS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS.              
THEY SHOW MORE OF A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY A FEW HOUR TRANSITION              
PERIOD WHERE AN ICY MIX IS POSSIBLE.                                            
KEPT THE STORM TOTAL SNOW GRIDS AS IS SINCE IT DEPICTED THE HEAVIEST            
SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND WAS SIMILAR TO THE HPC                  
GUIDANCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TOTALS FURTHER...AS CROSS-           
SECTIONS SHOW A NICE BULLSEYE OF LIFT WITHIN THE BEST TEMPERATURES              
FOR DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN                           
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS MIXING RATIOS ARE            
IN THE 3 TO 4 G/KG RANGE. WITH CONCERNS REGARDING PRECIP                        
TYPE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON UPPING TOTALS YET. FORECAST SNOW                  
TOTALS ARE FOR AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN 2 OR 3 TIERS            
OF COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS LOWERING TO AN INCH OR TWO OVER FAR                    
SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY MORNING.                 
WENT AHEAD AN HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN                  
MISSOURI FROM 12Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST              
CHANCE OF GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR HEAVIER SNOW...AND AS MENTIONED               
BEFORE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER MID-LEVEL FORCING. IF COLDER AIR              
FILTERS IN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE           
EXPANDED SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE               
CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH.                   
MADE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS.                                    
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 12 PM TUESDAY FOR                   
MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-                 
MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017.                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
505 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT                
WINTER STORM ACROSS THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.                            
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER             
THE REGION WITH THE ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER PRODUCING UPPER WAVE             
FINALLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS                   
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR                
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING                
UPPER SYSTEM.                                                                   
FORECAST GRIDS GENERALLY SIDED TOWARD THE GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE AS              
THEY HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THERMAL FIELDS AND THE GFS              
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT WITH THE HEAVIER QPF.               
INITIAL CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO REDUCE POPS TONIGHT FROM LIKELY              
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT WON`T BE REACHING           
THE AREA UNTIL TOWARD DAWN. IN ADDITION...THE 21Z RUN OF THE SREF WAS           
POINTING MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF CHANCE POPS.                                  
STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND HOW FAST THE                
COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE             
RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MEAN             
SREF DATA SHOWS BOTH THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE AND 0 DEG C LINE AT              
850 MB ONLY MAKING VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON              
MONDAY...WITH THE PROGGED FREEZING LINE NOT MAKING IT TO THE METRO              
AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GFS POINT                     
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT AND THERE IS CONCERN            
REGARDING HOW MUCH THE EXPECTED STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL COOL THE            
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.                                                               
THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG OMEGAS AND MID-           
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA                 
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70                
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY GET THE BEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST QPFS IS THIS             
FORCING PANS OUT. WILL START OUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA AS ALL RAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WINTERY MIX ACROSS OUR FAR             
NORTHERN 2 OR 3 TIERS OF COUNTIES. WILL ANTICIPATE THAT COLD AIR WILL           
MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND TRANSITION NORTHERN AREAS TO MAINLY              
SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70                  
CORRIDOR STARTING TO GET A WINTRY MIX...BUT RAIN HOLDING ON ACROSS              
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DURATION OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY                 
LATE MONDAY EVENING...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW.            
POINT SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE LONG PERIODS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS.              
THEY SHOW MORE OF A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY A FEW HOUR TRANSITION              
PERIOD WHERE AN ICY MIX IS POSSIBLE.                                            
KEPT THE STORM TOTAL SNOW GRIDS AS IS SINCE IT DEPICTED THE HEAVIEST            
SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND WAS SIMILAR TO THE HPC                  
GUIDANCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TOTALS FURTHER...AS CROSS-           
SECTIONS SHOW A NICE BULLSEYE OF LIFT WITHIN THE BEST TEMPERATURES              
FOR DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THERE LOOKS    
TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS MIXING RATIOS ARE IN THE 3 TO 4 G/KG                
RANGE. WITH CONCERNS REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON             
UPPING TOTALS YET. FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE FOR AROUND 4 TO 6                   
INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN 2 OR 3 TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS                
LOWERING TO AN INCH OR TWO OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE TIME THE              
SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY MORNING.                                                
WENT AHEAD AN HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN                  
MISSOURI FROM 12Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST              
CHANCE OF GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR HEAVIER SNOW...AND AS MENTIONED               
BEFORE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER MID-LEVEL FORCING. IF COLDER AIR              
FILTERS IN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE           
EXPANDED SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE               
CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH.                   
MADE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS.                                    
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY               
EVENING AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY. IN THE NEAR TERM WEAK WARM                    
ADVECTION AND STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AIDING BAND OF MID CLOUDS                    
STREAMING THROUGH CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME LOWER UPSTREAM MID CLOUDS            
WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.                 
SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLOUD COVER TILL TOMORROW.                
FOLLOWED MAV/MET MOS NUMBERS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GOING LOW                  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.                                               
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE NOW APPROACHING THE CA              
COAST IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN              
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EACH OF THE PAST                
COUPLE MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH THE 18Z RUN TODAY HAS              
COME IN WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AS                
WELL AS DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS STILL                  
BELIEVE THE WARM ADVECTION AS NOTED SPECIFICALLY ON THE 300K                    
ISENTROPIC CHART WILL GENERATE THE FIRST SALVO OF PRECIPITATION                 
SUNDAY EVENING. HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TOMORROW             
AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL GO A LONG WAYS TOWARDS DETERMINING                      
PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION               
AND KNOWING THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL NEEDS THE COLD AIR TO BE IN PLACE               
AHEAD OF TIME IN MOST CASES HAVE SHIFTED THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT             
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA. WENT CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW                
AMOUNTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH ABOVE FREEZING                      
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP PLUS THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE THERMAL             
PROFILES AS WARM NOSES COULD EASILY SHOW UP IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND            
THUS DISTORT THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE CURRENT THERMAL PROFILES               
ALSO SUGGEST MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.               
THAT BEING SAID HAVE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH THE 4-6G/KG OF MOISTURE               
AVAILABLE ON THE 300K SURFACE AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD SNOW            
FOR 18-24 HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MO THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE MUCH                
MORE THAN THE 6 INCHES CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FAR NORTHERN MO.                  
DID NOT GO WITH HEADLINES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE                      
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/SREF ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF             
AND THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT EVEN REACHED THE WEST COAST. SO            
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THE PLACEMENT OF A WINTER STORM               
WATCH AS WELL AS DETERMINE A MORE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW             
THREAT.                                                                         
MJ                                                                              
TUESDAY-SATURDAY...                                                             
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IT LOOKS AS IF THE TAIL END OF OUR SUNDAY            
NIGHT/EARLY WORK WEEK WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE JUST LEAVING THE              
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THE WRF/GFS/AND                
ECMWF HAVE ALL FOLLOWED THIS SLOWING TREND WITH THE LATE WEEKEND                
SYSTEM...SWINGING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH             
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW THE UPSHOT OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL                
ADJUSTMENTS IS TO ADD IN CHANCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE DAYLIGHT              
HOURS OF TUESDAY. ON THE UPSIDE TEMPERATURE PROFILES BY TUESDAY                 
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING            
MAKING FOR A SIMPLER PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST...SNOW.                        
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY MUTED TO                 
UNDER AN INCH AS THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE                 
EXACT EXIT TIMING.                                                              
OTHERWISE...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WORK WEEK WINTER STORM SOME                
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH              
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE HIGH STARTING OUT GREATER THAN               
1040MB AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE STATES...BUT IT BEGINS TO MODIFY             
AS IT SETTLES THROUGH THE PLAINS TO AROUND 1035MB BY THURSDAY                   
MORNING. CANADIAN MODEL IS MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR                
KEEPING THE SURFACE HIGH ABOVE 1040MB THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS                
MAKES THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST AT MOVING THE SURFACE COLD POOL OUT              
OF THE PLAINS. ALSO...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN BUCKLING THE             
STRONG ZONAL JET...THAT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS             
COMING WEEK...ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THINK THIS            
SHOULD HELP SHOVE THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.            
HOWEVER...I HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW MEX GUIDANCE                
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL BE                       
REESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE PLAINS.                                        
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR MOZ001-            
     MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-                   
     MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017.                                 
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
503 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE 12Z SHORT-TERM MODELS (TIL TUESDAY)...GENERAL PATTERN AT H500               
THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH LONGWAVE TROF OVER ERN                 
NOAM AND NWLY FLOW OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT                  
FLOW PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THREE SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT OUR                 
REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE FIRST TONIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE              
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS WILL NOT PRODUCE PCPN BUT JUST AN AREA               
OF MID CLOUD...THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LEAD              
IMPULSE FROM A SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND              
THEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. AT              
THE SURFACE...HI PRES WILL SLIDE TO THE SE TONIGHT WITH SLY FLOW                
ON SUNDAY. CDFNT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE N SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MOVE THRU MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LO PRES ORGANIZES AND RIDES ALONG                 
THE FRONT THRU NRN AR AND WRN TN DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.               
AN ARCTIC HI PRES THEN BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY.                          
MAIN WX STORY WILL BE ON THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT              
THRU TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WARMER SOLUTION THRU                 
THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS A SLOWER PROGRESSING STORM THRU OUR PART                
OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL PUSH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE FURTHER                  
N...BUT WILL BE PARTIALLY MADE UP IN OUR AREA BY THE LAGGING STORM              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                                                 
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...EVAPORATIONAL             
COOLING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING P-TYPES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT               
INTO MONDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PCPN MOVES IN...WITH SOME                   
MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS MOVING IT IN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST               
LOCATIONS AND OTHERS LIKE THE NAM MUCH SLOWER IN DEVELOPING IT.                 
WITH RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH THE LEAD                 
IMPULSE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...TENDED TO FAVOR THE FASTER GFS ON                     
TIMING. H700 LO CENTER NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TIL MONDAY                       
AFTERNOON...AND THEN UPSTREAM FROM OUR FA...SO TIL THEN...LOOK FOR              
WEDGE OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP ALOFT AND RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX FOR               
AREAS GENERALLY N AND NE OF ST LOUIS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF WINTRY MIX              
FOR OTHER AREAS AT THE INITIAL ONSET NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                   
H700 LO CENTER WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS NRN MO/CNTRL IL MONDAY NIGHT              
SETTING UP THE NRN LIMITS OF THE WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT AS WELL                
AS WHERE THE BETTER BANDED SNOW WILL SETUP. IT IS THERE WHERE THE               
BEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOUND...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6                
INCHES BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS TUESDAY MORNING.                                   
WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT ELSEWHERE WILL MAINTAIN EITHER JUST A COLD              
RAIN OR...WHERE TEMPS CAN EDGE CLOSER TO OR JUST BELOW THE                      
FREEZING MARK...A WINTRY MIX WITH MINOR ICE ACCUMS.                             
HOWEVER...ADD TO THIS THAT WE ARE TRACKING A /MOVING TARGET/ ON                 
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THAT THIS IS ALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE                 
4TH THRU 6TH PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...AND CONFIDENCE IN A WARNING              
CRITERIA EVENT IS JUST A HAIR BELOW 50PCT AT THIS TIME...AND SO                 
WILL DEFER ANY WATCH DECISION TO THE MID SHIFT.                                 
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...SIGNIFICANT                
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NRN STREAM            
AND THE H500 POLAR VORTEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD JUST            
NW OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC WANT TO                
LINGER THIS POLAR VORTEX AROUND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN             
A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU WHILE THE GFS/DGEX                
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. EVEN THE MODELS THAT WANT TO              
MAINTAIN POLAR VORTEX DO SO IN VARYING DEGREES AND FOR NOW PLAN ON              
GOING WITH A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD CONSENSUS SOLUTION BETWEEN THEM                 
WHICH SLOWLY PULLS POLAR VORTEX AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE               
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS ARE MORE OR LESS THE SAME WITH COLD               
ARCTIC HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA THRU FRIDAY AND THEN OUR                  
REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HI ON SATURDAY WITH A FRONT                   
EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU LATE SATURDAY. AM EXPECTING A DRY AND LARGELY             
COLD PERIOD...WITH SPLIT FLOW NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNFICANT              
PCPN EVENTS. THE ONLY SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO                
DELIVER SOME PCPN IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR S ON THURSDAY.                     
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVR NWRN MO WILL BE                       
SPREADING E-SEWD THRU THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG.                    
LATEST RUC RH ANALYSIS HAS 80 PERCENT OR GREATER RH VALUES AT 700               
MB OVER ALL THE TAF SITES BY 03Z SUN. SFC HI CNTRD OVR NWRN MO                  
SWRN IA WILL MOVE E-SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG.                  
NWLY SFC WNDS WILL BCM LGT BY LT AFTN AND EARLY EVNG UNDERNEATH                 
SFC HI...THEN THE SFC WND WL BCM S-SELY LT TGT AND SUN MRNG ON THE              
WEST SIDE OF THE SFC RDG.                                                       
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1027 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BUT HAVE                        
REORIENTED MORE FROM 300 DEGREE IN A LL CONVERGENT REGION ALONG                 
THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO. SUBSDC HAS KICKED IN AND THE WINDS               
HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NW AT LEAST ABV THE SFC LAYER. THIS                
CAN BE SEEN SOMEWHAT ON THE TYX 88D VWP. SFC WINDS ARE MORE SWRLY.              
THE SHEARING HAS LIKELY LESSONED THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT               
SOME. KEPT ADVY TOTAL SNOW AMNTS MAINLY FOR FAR NRN PARTS OF                    
ONONDAGA AND MADISON AND CENTRAL ONEIDA. SHRT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN               
WELL MOVG INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL BACK THE FLO ENUF TO                    
POTENTIALLY RE-ORGANIZE THE LES BANDS AS THEY SHIFT NORTH BACK                  
INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. WILL KEEP WARNINGS GOING SINCE                     
WARNING CRITERIA HAS ALREADY BEEN MET UP IN NRN ONEIDA AND                      
THIS NEXT BAND WILL ADD TO THE SNOWFALL. SOME LAKE ERIE                         
SNOW BANDS WILL CONT TO AFFECT STEUBEN CO TO THE WRN FINGER                     
LAKES OVRNGT. REST OF CWA...PC SKIES FEW FLURRIES IN C NY...MAINLY              
CLR IN NE PA OVERNIGHT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 747 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE TO HIT NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE                   
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISH SOME AS SUBSDC DRYING BEHIND A SHRT                  
WAVE LIKELY IS LOWERING INVERSION SOME. IN ADDITION A MORE NWRLY                
FLO HAS SET UP ACRS NRN LAKE ONT WITH SW LL WINDS SOUTH OF THE                  
LAKE. CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN AN AXIS THAT SEEMS TO BE                    
FAVORING A NEW BAND TO RE-ORGANIZE FARTHER SOUTH ACRS FAR NORTHERN              
ONONDAGA COUNTY...FAR NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY AND TO THE THRUWAY                
IN ONIEDA COUNTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM RUC...WRF ALL SUGGEST A                  
MAJOR SHIFT TO NW WINDS IN THE LL/S THAT JUST IS NOT APPEARING IN               
THE VWP DATA OR IN THE SFC DATA. THEREFORE AM NOT GOING ANY                     
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS THAN THE THRUWAY. THE LL               
FLOW WAS ALSO BACKING IN SRN ONT IN RESPONSE TO ANTHR SHRT WAVE                 
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE WILL REORGANIZE THE LAKE                 
EFFECT BANDS LATER TONIGHT SHIFT THEM BACK NORTH ACR NRN ONEIDA                 
COUNTY AGAIN FOR A TIME...UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING (THE LATEST).               
ISSUED ADVY 3-7 INCHES FROM THRUWAY SYR-UCA AND NORTH TO RME.                   
NORTH OF THERE WARNING SNOWS WILL CONT. S OF THRUWAY 1-3 INCHES AT              
BEST.                                                                           
ALSO HAVE SOME LES SNOWS AFFECTING FAR WESTERN STUEBEN CO AND                   
YATES CO/S OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SEE SUB-ADVY CRITERIA SNOWS IN               
THESE AREAS. 1-3 INCHES HIGHER TERRAIN.                                         
REST OF CWA...PC SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES...JUST QUIET AND COLD.                
NEXT SHORT TERM UPDATE BY 10 PM OR SO.                                          
AVIATION /01Z-24Z/...                                                           
FOR KSYR AND KRME...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR                 
OVERNIGHT. FOR KSYR...IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED AFTER ABOUT                    
09Z...AS THE LAKE BAND SHIFTS NORTH OF THIS TERMINAL. AT                        
KRME...NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 12Z             
SUNDAY.                                                                         
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED.                                
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT THIS EVENING...WILL BACK TO THE                      
SOUTHWEST...AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT AFTER 06Z.                                  
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LOOK FOR VFR AREA-WIDE...WITH SOUTHWEST                 
WINDS NEAR 10 KT.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 318 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE AS LK ONTARIO REFUSES TO SHUT OFF.                      
CONNECTION HAS NOW BEEN MADE TO LK HURON WITH LONG BAND STREAMING               
ACROSS CENTER AXIS OF LAKE AND INTO OSWEGO/NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.                   
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND BEING REPORTED AT 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN              
CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY. BAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NRN              
ONEIDA COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE FLUCTUATION TO THE                 
NORTH BTWN 21Z AND 00Z. TROF LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LK ONTARIO WILL               
RESULT IN A MORE NWRLY FLOW LATE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DROPPING               
BAND INTO SRN ONEIDA COUNTY BTWN 03-06Z AND THEN INTO EXTREME NRN               
ONONDAGA/MADISON CTY. HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME...INVERSION BEGINS               
CRASHING AND LIFT DIMINISHES. AM EXPECTING SNOWFALL RATES TO                    
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS OF 2-4 INCHES                      
EXPECTED OVER ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES TONIGHT.                            
FOR ONEIDA...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE ROME                
UTICA AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT AM EXPECTING ACCUMS TO REMAIN JUST BLO                
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS BAND OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH THIS EVENING.              
HAVE CONTD WARNING FOR NRN ONEIDA WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR AMOUNTS                
POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COULD SEE STORM                   
TOTALS EXCEEDING A FOOT BY MORNING...MOST OF IT FALLING BTWN NOW                
AND MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER OF AREA SHOULD SEE FEW LIGHT SNOW                       
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT.                       
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF FA MID-MORNING                      
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE REGION. ON               
SUNDAY NIGHT NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER CANADA AND DRAGS AND                   
ARCTIC CLD FRONT WITH IT. FRONT WILL APPROACH UPSTATE NY MONDAY                 
MORNING AND MOVE THRU FA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS WAS THE CASE                 
LAST TIME...BRIEF SQUALLS COULD ACCOMPANY FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER               
NRN ZONES WITH LESS CHC OVER NEPA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOES NOT               
APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO                
PRODUCE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES NORTH AND CENTRAL. AFTER PASSAGE...NRLY              
FLOW USHERING IN COLD CANADIAN AIR...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING               
UP SOUTH OF REGION THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                      
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. SAME PATTERN CONTINUES FOR EXTENDED. NW FLOW             
WITH COLD AIR. A LARGE CONTINENTAL ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE                  
PLAINS WHILE A STORM HEADS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL                  
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR N THE SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED.                
THE COLD AIR WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF NY WITH ONLY LGT SNOW            
IN PA. WITH VARIED MODEL OUTPUT AND LOW HPC CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH CHC POPS. AS THIS STORM EXITS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND LES             
WILL RETURN FOR WED TO FRI.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ018-036-            
     037.                                                                       
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009.                
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJN                                                                
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
747 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE TO HIT NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE                   
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISH SOME AS SUBSDC DRYING BEHIND A SHRT                  
WAVE LIKELY IS LOWERING INVERSION SOME. IN ADDITION A MORE NWRLY                
FLO HAS SET UP ACRS NRN LAKE ONT WITH SW LL WINDS SOUTH OF THE                  
LAKE. CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN AN AXIS THAT SEEMS TO BE                    
FAVORING A NEW BAND TO RE-ORGANIZE FARTHER SOUTH ACRS FAR NORTHERN              
ONONDAGA COUNTY...FAR NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY AND TO THE THRUWAY                
IN ONIEDA COUNTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM RUC...WRF ALL SUGGEST A                  
MAJOR SHIFT TO NW WINDS IN THE LL/S THAT JUST IS NOT APPEARING IN               
THE VWP DATA OR IN THE SFC DATA. THEREFORE AM NOT GOING ANY                     
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS THAN THE THRUWAY. THE LL               
FLOW WAS ALSO BACKING IN SRN ONT IN RESPONSE TO ANTHR SHRT WAVE                 
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE WILL REORGANIZE THE LAKE                 
EFFECT BANDS LATER TONIGHT SHIFT THEM BACK NORTH ACR NRN ONEIDA                 
COUNTY AGAIN FOR A TIME...UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING (THE LATEST).               
ISSUED ADVY 3-7 INCHES FROM THRUWAY SYR-UCA AND NORTH TO RME.                   
NORTH OF THERE WARNING SNOWS WILL CONT. S OF THRUWAY 1-3 INCHES AT              
BEST.                                                                           
ALSO HAVE SOME LES SNOWS AFFECTING FAR WESTERN STUEBEN CO AND                   
YATES CO/S OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SEE SUB-ADVY CRITERIA SNOWS IN               
THESE AREAS. 1-3 INCHES HIGHER TERRAIN.                                         
REST OF CWA...PC SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES...JUST QUIET AND COLD.                
NEXT SHORT TERM UPDATE BY 10 PM OR SO.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z-24Z/...                                                          
FOR KSYR AND KRME...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR                 
OVERNIGHT. FOR KSYR...IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED AFTER ABOUT                    
09Z...AS THE LAKE BAND SHIFTS NORTH OF THIS TERMINAL. AT                        
KRME...NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 12Z             
SUNDAY.                                                                         
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED.                                
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT THIS EVENING...WILL BACK TO THE                      
SOUTHWEST...AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT AFTER 06Z.                                  
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LOOK FOR VFR AREA-WIDE...WITH SOUTHWEST                 
WINDS NEAR 10 KT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 318 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE AS LK ONTARIO REFUSES TO SHUT OFF.                      
CONNECTION HAS NOW BEEN MADE TO LK HURON WITH LONG BAND STREAMING               
ACROSS CENTER AXIS OF LAKE AND INTO OSWEGO/NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.                   
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND BEING REPORTED AT 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN              
CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY. BAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NRN              
ONEIDA COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE FLUCTUATION TO THE                 
NORTH BTWN 21Z AND 00Z. TROF LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LK ONTARIO WILL               
RESULT IN A MORE NWRLY FLOW LATE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DROPPING               
BAND INTO SRN ONEIDA COUNTY BTWN 03-06Z AND THEN INTO EXTREME NRN               
ONONDAGA/MADISON CTY. HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME...INVERSION BEGINS               
CRASHING AND LIFT DIMINISHES. AM EXPECTING SNOWFALL RATES TO                    
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS OF 2-4 INCHES                      
EXPECTED OVER ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES TONIGHT.                            
FOR ONEIDA...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE ROME                
UTICA AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT AM EXPECTING ACCUMS TO REMAIN JUST BLO                
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS BAND OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH THIS EVENING.              
HAVE CONTD WARNING FOR NRN ONEIDA WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR AMOUNTS                
POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COULD SEE STORM                   
TOTALS EXCEEDING A FOOT BY MORNING...MOST OF IT FALLING BTWN NOW                
AND MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER OF AREA SHOULD SEE FEW LIGHT SNOW                       
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT.                       
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF FA MID-MORNING                      
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE REGION. ON               
SUNDAY NIGHT NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER CANADA AND DRAGS AND                   
ARCTIC CLD FRONT WITH IT. FRONT WILL APPROACH UPSTATE NY MONDAY                 
MORNING AND MOVE THRU FA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS WAS THE CASE                 
LAST TIME...BRIEF SQUALLS COULD ACCOMPANY FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER               
NRN ZONES WITH LESS CHC OVER NEPA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOES NOT               
APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO                
PRODUCE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES NORTH AND CENTRAL. AFTER PASSAGE...NRLY              
FLOW USHERING IN COLD CANADIAN AIR...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING               
UP SOUTH OF REGION THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                      
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. SAME PATTERN CONTINUES FOR EXTENDED. NW FLOW             
WITH COLD AIR. A LARGE CONTINENTAL ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE                  
PLAINS WHILE A STORM HEADS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL                  
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR N THE SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED.                
THE COLD AIR WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF NY WITH ONLY LGT SNOW            
IN PA. WITH VARIED MODEL OUTPUT AND LOW HPC CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH CHC POPS. AS THIS STORM EXITS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND LES             
WILL RETURN FOR WED TO FRI.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ018-036-            
     037.                                                                       
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009.                
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJN                                                                
AVIATION...MLJ                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
954 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
CLEAR AND DRY DAY FOR CENTRAL NC. WILL UPDATE FORECAST DWPTS FOR                
THIS AFTERNOON DROPPING THEM SEVERAL DEGREES BASED UPON RUC                     
SOUNDINGS AND NW FLOW. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER              
CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 245 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                      
TODAY...                                                                        
WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CWA WILL            
BE EAST OF AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THEN CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT SOME             
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL                    
PREVAIL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE                
REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE                    
SUB-ZERO VALUES OF YESTERDAY. BUT SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS PLUNGE TO                
SUB-ZERO VALUES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS RE-ENFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR               
INTO REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TIER BUT NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY.             
WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S...A FEW             
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY APPROACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK.                   
TONIGHT...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL              
RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT. SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TIER.           
GENERAL RANGE OF 19-24 ACROSS THE CWA.                                          
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER AREA.            
THUS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. CONTINUED WARMING             
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 30.              
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE P-TYPE ISSUES TOWARD MID WEEK BUT LOW                    
CONFIDENCE AS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODELS INCONSISTENCIES.              
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMP WARM              
AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.             
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RAIN DEVELOPING MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS               
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST MID ATLC. TRENDS                
INDICATE PRECIP MOVING IN SLOWER. SO DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF             
RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. STILL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE                     
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. ALSO MODEL              
TRENDS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE. THE GFS TRENDS HAVE BEEN                       
INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...AS ONE RUN BRINGS SYSTEM FURTHER                 
NORTH AND WARMER...NEXT RUN COLDER WITH SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH. ALSO              
OF NOTE...NO STRONG HIGH AS HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND             
NO DRY AIR RIDGE. SO AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST               
TRENDS...RAIN MOVING IN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS TUESDAY            
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE ANY P-TYPE                
TRENDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEPENDANT UPON                       
TRACK/STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW. ANY DEVIATION COULD MEAN THE                     
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER LIQUID OR FROZEN P-TYPE CONCERNS. ADDRESS              
ON LATER SHIFTS/SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.  A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER                 
WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                 
AVIATION /05Z-24Z/...                                                           
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MINOR DISTURBANCES IN FAST WEST                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL BROKEN LAYERS AT OR              
ABOVE 8 THSD FT THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE              
AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM              
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.  -RFG/RHJ                                    
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RHS AGAIN             
TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. POTENTIAL FOR RHS AT OR              
BELOW 15 PERCENT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JO                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
1154 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM UPDATE/THIS AFTERNOON/...                                           
A SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN GREAT LAKES CAUSING SOME                  
FLURRIES AND OR SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS INCH OR LESS THROUGH                
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS 15 TO 20.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA THIS MORNING.                 
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BUT LITTLE TO             
NO ACCUMULATION.  SNOW WILL BE A LITTLE HEAVIER IN THE SNOW BELT                
EAST OF CLEVELAND...BUT EVEN THERE SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF            
ACCUMULATION.  AGAIN AS WITH THE 06Z AFD RUC SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST            
HANDLE ON THE CLOUDS.  CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS             
AFTERNOON AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI                 
VALLEY SHIFTS EAST.  THINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TODAY-MONDAY/...                                                   
WEAK SFC TROF ACRS WRN LERI INTO NW OHIO WITH AN UPR LVL S/W MOVING             
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES PROG TO MOV ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.               
EXPECT CLOUDINESS WITH THESE FEATURES TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER            
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT FLURRIES THIS MORNING MOST PLACES AS            
THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC/SCT LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE EXTREME NE                      
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND WITH LAKE BEING MOSTLY            
ICE COVERE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULULATING OR LEAST LESS THAN INCH.            
SOME FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE NE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE             
BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT             
AND EARLY SUNDAY. BACKING WINDS SHOULD END ANY LAKE EFFECT                      
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO                    
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AT THIS TIME. STILL DIFFERENCE             
IN MODELS ON HOW FAST PCPN RETURN WITH NAM NOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL                
MONDAY WITH GFS SPREADING BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT...FLIP FLOP FROM 12Z             
RUN. THE DRY AMS IN PLACE AND RIDGE JUST EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL              
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF THE PRCIP UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT IN THE WEST.                 
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY-FRIDAY/...                                                  
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. PATTERN REMAINS QUITE                
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY               
GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT DO HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE TIMING OF THE TRUE            
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN BY WED. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY                
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE THE GFS              
IS STARTING TO COME AROUND.                                                     
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH             
AND EAST TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THE                     
INEVITABLE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA TUE THERE COULD            
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING THRU...BUT THE DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD MOTION            
FROM THE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY DIMINISH MOST PCPN. WILL              
DROP POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE AREA ON TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW MAY                 
ALLOW FOR A LAKE HURON FETCH...AND HAVE CONTINUED 30 POP FOR THE                
NORTH TUE NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA WED-THU              
WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW -20C PER GFS/ECMWF PROGS. FLOW EVENTUALLY                
BACKS TO THE NW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LES IN THE TRADITIONAL                   
SNOWBELT. HOWEVER...WITH LAKE ERIE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED...WILL              
HAVE TO RELY ON LAKE HURON FOR MUCH OF THE HEAT FLUX AND MOISTURE.              
ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY SNOW WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS...DO NOT THINK IT            
WILL BE A BIG EVENT DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY                  
AIR/DOWNWARD MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE WORDING IN THE                   
SNOWBELT THRU FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW.                                   
AS STATED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL. SOME TIMING                 
ISSUES WITH THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...BUT WED/THU WILL LIKELY BE THE                
COLDEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPS LUCKY TO RISE OUT OF THE                
TEENS DURING THE DAY AND WILL STAY IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT                  
NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS AGAIN WED/THU. IN                          
GENERAL...HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC                
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER AND                     
POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON                                                           
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
630 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA THIS MORNING.                 
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BUT LITTLE TO             
NO ACCUMULATION.  SNOW WILL BE A LITTLE HEAVIER IN THE SNOW BELT                
EAST OF CLEVELAND...BUT EVEN THERE SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF            
ACCUMULATION.  AGAIN AS WITH THE 06Z AFD RUC SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST            
HANDLE ON THE CLOUDS.  CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS             
AFTERNOON AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI                 
VALLEY SHIFTS EAST.  THINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TODAY-MONDAY/...                                                   
WEAK SFC TROF ACRS WRN LERI INTO NW OHIO WITH AN UPR LVL S/W MOVING             
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES PROG TO MOV ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.               
EXPECT CLOUDINESS WITH THESE FEATURES TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER            
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT FLURRIES THIS MORNING MOST PLACES AS            
THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC/SCT LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE EXTREME NE                      
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND WITH LAKE BEING MOSTLY            
ICE COVERE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULULATING OR LEAST LESS THAN INCH.            
SOME FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE NE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE             
BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT             
AND EARLY SUNDAY. BACKING WINDS SHOULD END ANY LAKE EFFECT                      
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO                    
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AT THIS TIME. STILL DIFFERENCE             
IN MODELS ON HOW FAST PCPN RETURN WITH NAM NOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL                
MONDAY WITH GFS SPREADING BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT...FLIP FLOP FROM 12Z             
RUN. THE DRY AMS IN PLACE AND RIDGE JUST EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL              
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF THE PRCIP UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT IN THE WEST.                 
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY-FRIDAY/...                                                  
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. PATTERN REMAINS QUITE                
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY               
GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT DO HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE TIMING OF THE TRUE            
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN BY WED. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY                
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE THE GFS              
IS STARTING TO COME AROUND.                                                     
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH             
AND EAST TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THE                     
INEVITABLE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA TUE THERE COULD            
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING THRU...BUT THE DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD MOTION            
FROM THE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY DIMINISH MOST PCPN. WILL              
DROP POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE AREA ON TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW MAY                 
ALLOW FOR A LAKE HURON FETCH...AND HAVE CONTINUED 30 POP FOR THE                
NORTH TUE NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA WED-THU              
WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW -20C PER GFS/ECMWF PROGS. FLOW EVENTUALLY                
BACKS TO THE NW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LES IN THE TRADITIONAL                   
SNOWBELT. HOWEVER...WITH LAKE ERIE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED...WILL              
HAVE TO RELY ON LAKE HURON FOR MUCH OF THE HEAT FLUX AND MOISTURE.              
ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY SNOW WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS...DO NOT THINK IT            
WILL BE A BIG EVENT DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY                  
AIR/DOWNWARD MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE WORDING IN THE                   
SNOWBELT THRU FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW.                                   
AS STATED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL. SOME TIMING                 
ISSUES WITH THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...BUT WED/THU WILL LIKELY BE THE                
COLDEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPS LUCKY TO RISE OUT OF THE                
TEENS DURING THE DAY AND WILL STAY IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT                  
NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS AGAIN WED/THU. IN                          
GENERAL...HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC                
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER AND                     
POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WCR                                                                
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
300 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY-MONDAY/...                                                   
WEAK SFC TROF ACRS WRN LERI INTO NW OHIO WITH AN UPR LVL S/W MOVING             
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES PROG TO MOV ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.               
EXPECT CLOUDINESS WITH THESE FEATURES TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER            
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT FLURRIES THIS MORNING MOST PLACES AS            
THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC/SCT LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE EXTREME NE                      
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND WITH LAKE BEING MOSTLY            
ICE COVERE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULULATING OR LEAST LESS THAN INCH.            
SOME FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE NE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE             
BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT             
AND EARLY SUNDAY. BACKING WINDS SHOULD END ANY LAKE EFFECT                      
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO                    
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AT THIS TIME. STILL DIFFERENCE             
IN MODELS ON HOW FAST PCPN RETURN WITH NAM NOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL                
MONDAY WITH GFS SPREADING BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT...FLIP FLOP FROM 12Z             
RUN. THE DRY AMS IN PLACE AND RIDGE JUST EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL              
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF THE PRCIP UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT IN THE WEST.                 
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY-FRIDAY/...                                                  
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. PATTERN REMAINS QUITE                
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY               
GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT DO HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE TIMING OF THE TRUE            
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN BY WED. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY                
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE THE GFS              
IS STARTING TO COME AROUND.                                                     
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH             
AND EAST TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THE                     
INEVITABLE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA TUE THERE COULD            
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING THRU...BUT THE DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD MOTION            
FROM THE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY DIMINISH MOST PCPN. WILL              
DROP POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE AREA ON TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW MAY                 
ALLOW FOR A LAKE HURON FETCH...AND HAVE CONTINUED 30 POP FOR THE                
NORTH TUE NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA WED-THU              
WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW -20C PER GFS/ECMWF PROGS. FLOW EVENTUALLY                
BACKS TO THE NW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LES IN THE TRADITIONAL                   
SNOWBELT. HOWEVER...WITH LAKE ERIE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED...WILL              
HAVE TO RELY ON LAKE HURON FOR MUCH OF THE HEAT FLUX AND MOISTURE.              
ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY SNOW WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS...DO NOT THINK IT            
WILL BE A BIG EVENT DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY                  
AIR/DOWNWARD MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE WORDING IN THE                   
SNOWBELT THRU FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW.                                   
AS STATED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL. SOME TIMING                 
ISSUES WITH THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...BUT WED/THU WILL LIKELY BE THE                
COLDEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPS LUCKY TO RISE OUT OF THE                
TEENS DURING THE DAY AND WILL STAY IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT                  
NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS AGAIN WED/THU. IN                          
GENERAL...HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC                
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER AND                     
POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY 12Z. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER MICHIGAN SEEMED TO BE HEADED TO              
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A TOUGH TIME                    
HANDLING THIS. THE GFS AND NAM TRY TO BRING THE CLOUDS IN FOR A                 
SHORT TIME OVERNIGHT AND THEN LIFT THEM OUT SATURDAY MORNING AND                
THEN BRING THEM BACK IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 03Z RUC SEEMS TO                
HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS BRINING IN CEILINGS 3000 TO 3500 AND KEEPING            
THEM MUCH OF SATURDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THEN AS THE                 
RIDGE GETS CLOSER AND THE FLOW WESTERLY...DRYING OUT. BECAUSE OF THE            
NORTHWEST FLOW...I AM GOING WITH THE RUC AND BRING THE CLOUDS IN AND            
KEEP THEM IN. WATCHING PLENTY OF FLURRIES OVER MICHIGAN...MOST OF               
THE VISIBILITIES ARE UNRESTRICTED...WILL GO WITH THAT EXCEPT AT ERI             
AND YNG.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WCR                                                                
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
1146 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007                                                      
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY 12Z. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER MICHIGAN SEEMED TO BE HEADED TO              
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A TOUGH TIME                    
HANDLING THIS. THE GFS AND NAM TRY TO BRING THE CLOUDS IN FOR A                 
SHORT TIME OVERNIGHT AND THEN LIFT THEM OUT SATURDAY MORNING AND                
THEN BRING THEM BACK IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 03Z RUC SEEMS TO                
HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS BRINING IN CEILINGS 3000 TO 3500 AND KEEPING            
THEM MUCH OF SATURDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THEN AS THE                 
RIDGE GETS CLOSER AND THE FLOW WESTERLY...DRYING OUT. BECAUSE OF THE            
NORTHWEST FLOW...I AM GOING WITH THE RUC AND BRING THE CLOUDS IN AND            
KEEP THEM IN. WATCHING PLENTY OF FLURRIES OVER MICHIGAN...MOST OF               
THE VISIBILITIES ARE UNRESTRICTED...WILL GO WITH THAT EXCEPT AT ERI             
AND YNG.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
QUESTION FOR REST OF TNGT IS WHETHER OR NOT SFC TROF WL BE ABLE TO              
CLEANLY PUSH SE ACRS LERI INTO NERN OH AND NW PA.  FOR WK TROFS LIKE            
THIS THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE MODELS TO PUSH THE TROF THRU BUT IN            
FACT THE TROF OFTEN LINGERS BACK OVER THE LAKES CLOSER TO THE                   
THERMAL FIELD INDUCING THE TROF. FOR THE OVERNIGHT WL TRIM BACK SOME            
ON THE SNOWFALL TO MAKE THE FCST MORE OPTIMISTIC AND BACK TIMING OF             
ACCUMULATING SN FOR THE SNOWBELT TIL TWD DAYBREAK.                              
WL STAY WITH FCST LOW TEMPS WHICH SEEM TO BE A GOOD A GUESS AS ANY.             
WNDS ON AVG SHUD STAY UNDER 10 MPH DURG THE COLDER LATE NITE/EARLY              
MORN HRS SO WL CONT TO STAY AWAY FM ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.                  
BESIDES THE WND CHILL ADVSRY HAS BEEN BEATEN TO DEATH OVR THE PAST              
WK ANYWAY AND TOMORROW MORN IS NOT A SCHOOL DAY NOR A WORK DAY FOR              
MOST PEOPLE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-MONDAY/...                                                 
HIGH PRES RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST                    
OVERNIGHT...AND PASS OVER THE AREA SAT MORNING. NOT MUCH WEATHER                
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...OTHER THAN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS. AHEAD            
OF THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO W-SW                
LIMITING ANY LES TO THE EXTREME LAKESHORE OF NW PA. BEHIND THE SHORT            
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL              
TURN W-NW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANY LES TO MOVE INLAND AND INCREASE DUE            
TO BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY             
POPS IN THE NW PA SNOWBELT...BUT ONLY LIMIT ACCUMS TO 1-2 INCHES DUE            
TO THE LOSS OF HEAT FLUX FROM THE LAKE DUE TO IT BEING MOSTLY ICE               
COVERED. THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE                    
WEEKEND. W-NW FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST SMALL CHANCE OF LES IN THE                
SNOWBELT THRU SUNDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED            
DUE TO ICE COVER. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD ON SAT NIGHT/SUN                  
MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AWAY FROM              
THE SNOWBELT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN SW ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS            
EAST AND WARM ADVECTION SETS UP. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH ALL CHANCES OF            
SNOW UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. THE MODELS              
DIFFER ON HOW FAST THE PCPN MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE NAM                  
BRINGING PCPN IN SUN NIGHT AND THE GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON AFTN.              
WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT               
THAT THE PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS              
ALREADY IN PLACE. A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP JUST SOUTH OF THE            
AREA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PCPN              
WILL ALSO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER LIFT OCCURS. COULD            
SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW MON/MON NIGHT...WITH                  
PERHAPS SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NE FLOW MON NIGHT...BUT               
WITH THE STRONG RIDGING MOVING IN IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.                      
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE WKND.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE QUITE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE              
WITH WINDS 5-10 MPH. EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND -10F...OR JUST             
BELOW ADVY CRITERIA OF -15F. ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE ALLOWS TEMPS TO              
RISE INTO THE MID-UPR 20S ON SUNDAY...WITH THE SNOW COVER AND                   
INCREASING MID CLOUDS HAVE OPTED TO GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. SKIES               
SHOULD ALSO BE RELATIVELY CLEAR SAT NIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO ALSO BE            
A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY-FRIDAY/...                                                  
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. PATTERN REMAINS QUITE                
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY               
GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT DO HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE TIMING OF THE TRUE            
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN BY WED. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY                
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE THE GFS              
IS STARTING TO COME AROUND.                                                     
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH             
AND EAST TO KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THE                     
INEVITABLE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA TUE THERE COULD            
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING THRU...BUT THE DRY AIR AND DOWNWARD MOTION            
FROM THE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY DIMINISH MOST PCPN. WILL              
DROP POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE AREA ON TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW MAY                 
ALLOW FOR A LAKE HURON FETCH...AND HAVE CONTINUED 30 POP FOR THE                
NORTH TUE NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA WED-THU              
WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW -20C PER GFS/ECMWF PROGS. FLOW EVENTUALLY                
BACKS TO THE NW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LES IN THE TRADITIONAL                   
SNOWBELT. HOWEVER...WITH LAKE ERIE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED...WILL              
HAVE TO RELY ON LAKE HURON FOR MUCH OF THE HEAT FLUX AND MOISTURE.              
ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY SNOW WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS...DO NOT THINK IT            
WILL BE A BIG EVENT DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY                  
AIR/DOWNWARD MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE WORDING IN THE                   
SNOWBELT THRU FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW.                                   
AS STATED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL. SOME TIMING                 
ISSUES WITH THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...BUT WED/THU WILL LIKELY BE THE                
COLDEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPS LUCKY TO RISE OUT OF THE                
TEENS DURING THE DAY AND WILL STAY IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AT                  
NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS AGAIN WED/THU. IN                          
GENERAL...HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC                
EXTENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER AND                     
POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MRD/ADAMS                                                          
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1137 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NOT A CLEAR CUT CIG/FR FCST FOR N TX TAFS...BUT COORD WITH CWSU HAS             
BEEN INVALUABLE. PER RUC BL AND SOUNDING TRENDS...AND SATL...HAVE               
DECIDED TO KEEP VFR CIGS BTWN 035-040 THRU AT LEAST 21-22Z WHICH                
WILL AFFECT AIRPORT ACCEPTANCE RATES FOR LANDINGS. SFC FLO STILL                
N/NE MOST AREAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP CIGS IN DFW AREA TAFS...AND SLOWLY            
FILL IN AT WACO BY 20Z.                                                         
MAY BE OPTIMISTIC ON SCT/HI VFR CIG CONDS AFTR 00Z...BUT WILL INDICATE          
THAT FOR NOW PER RUC PROGS...AS FLO VEER SELY...THEN SLY BY 18Z/AFTR            
ON SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDS RETURNING JUST BEFORE 12Z SUN AND LINGERING         
THRU 18Z.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
MADE ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH...AND             
REMOVED MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO FURTHER CHANGES AT            
THIS TIME.     42                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
52227 AM CST...                                                                 
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH              
OVC SKIES LIKELY BREAKING UP A BIT DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A               
FEW HOURS WITH NO CIGS BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME. FLOW GOES BACK                   
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN/EVE AND AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE OVERNIGHT IT               
LOOKS LIKE MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. 84                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
410 AM                                                                          
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS               
TODAY AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS                
A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE               
EAST...WE WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...              
AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY. WE WILL THEN SEE MODERATING                  
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AND                     
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS                  
THE EAST...AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...WE WILL SEE A                 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN               
THE EXPECTED LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL                
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST                
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED              
TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON             
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL SEE                  
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE              
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCE RETURN.                 
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT WE HAVE A CHANCE OF A               
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE              
PRECIPITATION ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. #58                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  38  56  56  69 /  10  10  10  40  50                  
WACO, TX              49  41  58  58  70 /  10  10  20  40  50                  
PARIS, TX             48  34  49  49  66 /  10  10  10  60  60                  
DENTON, TX            47  38  55  55  70 /  10  10  10  40  40                  
MCKINNEY, TX          46  36  53  53  67 /  10  10  10  40  50                  
DALLAS, TX            48  40  56  56  70 /  10  10  10  40  50                  
TERRELL, TX           47  38  54  54  69 /  10   0  10  50  60                  
CORSICANA, TX         48  38  56  56  69 /  10  10  20  50  60                  
TEMPLE, TX            50  42  57  57  71 /  10  10  20  40  50                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
42/58/05                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
926 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...ISENTROPIC LIFT WL CONTRIBUTE TO STRATIFORM RAIN TDA                  
NOTWITHSTANDING THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVG ACRS DEEP SOUTH TX.                  
CURRENT POPS REASONABLE. BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE RUC...EXPECT                  
SFC WIND TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERION OVR THE COASTAL WATERS BY                  
21Z. SEA HGTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION.                                
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT                  
ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN                
BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO                    
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS              
20 TO 60 NM-WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60              
NM.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...87                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
945 PM PST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                   
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW                  
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND                 
HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. KOTX RADAR IS SHOWING A             
BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM NEAR CHELAN SOUTHEAST TO NEAR PULLMAN.               
THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LINING UP WITH THE ISENTROPIC                   
UPGLIDE ALONG THE 285-295K. THE RUC40/00Z GFS SEEM TO HAVE HAD THE              
BEST HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z NAM IS ABOUT            
3 HOURS TO SLOW. POPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BUMPED UP ACROSS THE                    
FORECAST AREA AND DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO UPDATE ANY FURTHER. REPORTS            
OF A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE KLICKITAT VALLEY EARLIER            
THIS EVENING ABOVE 2500 FEET. THIS IS ALREADY COVERED IN THE                    
FORECAST. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT             
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS NORTH OF A SPOKANE-WENATCHEE LINE. AT 05Z SOME             
OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING...HOWEVER                    
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN                
BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES INCREASE BACK ABOVE FREEZING. /TOBIN                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
KGEG-KCOE CORRIDOR AND THE VALLEYS TO THE NORTH OF THAT LINE WILL               
SEE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH 07-09Z OR SO FOR VSBY/CIGS.                 
OTHERWISE AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW A LITTLE BETTER                  
VERTICAL MIXING FOR CONDITIONS IMPROVING VFR-MVFR OVERNIGHT. A BREAK            
IN THE STABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER 11Z WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY ALLOW               
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS               
DEVELOPING WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN                 
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO CLIMB TO VFR-MVFR. /TOBIN                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        33  39  30  38  30  41 /  80  80  30  20  20  10                 
COEUR D`ALENE  33  39  30  38  30  41 /  70  90  50  30  20  10                 
PULLMAN        36  41  32  40  32  43 /  80  70  40  20  20  20                 
LEWISTON       38  45  35  45  33  46 /  80  60  40  20  20  10                 
COLVILLE       31  37  32  40  29  40 /  60  80  50  30  20  10                 
SANDPOINT      31  38  27  36  28  38 /  60  90  60  40  20  10                 
KELLOGG        32  41  31  39  30  41 /  60  90  60  40  30  10                 
MOSES LAKE     34  43  31  44  32  44 /  70  50  20  20  20  20                 
WENATCHEE      35  44  31  42  32  43 /  70  60  20  30  20  20                 
OMAK           32  41  29  39  28  42 /  70  70  30  20  20  20                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1020 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK UPPER LEVEL                
DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 16Z SURFACE METARS ACROSS            
FORECAST AREA INDICATING SNOW FLURRIES. 15Z LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS                  
INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS                 
FORECAST AREA. 12Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE ALL SNOW                  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FOR             
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOSS            
OF ICE CRYSTALS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY                   
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TODAYS FORECAST             
FOR THESE TRENDS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
DTJ                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2007/                         
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PLENTY...CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE                
TODAY...SNOW CHANCES/ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...AND THEN LARGE WINTER              
STORM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                                       
WITH HPC NOTING NAM-WRF INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NRN STREAM...HAVE              
SIDED THE FORECAST STRONGLY IN GFS/SREF COURT...WITH THESE                      
SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS HI-RES CANADIAN GIVING A RATHER STRONG                     
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 48-60 HOURS.                                        
FIRST THING WE NEED TO ADDRESS IS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE                          
POSSIBILITIES TODAY IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME                   
AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.              
AREA PROFILERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RAPIDLY EXPANDING               
IFR CEILING/VISIBILITY DECK IN SWRN MN/NWRN IA MOVING EAST ON                   
WESTERLY 925MB WINDS ON WOOD LAKE PROFILER. HAVE SEEN                           
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO OUR WEST LOWER QUICKLY...WITH WFO DMX                  
NOTING SOME ICING OCCURRING IN NRN IA WHERE VSBYS DOWN TO 2SM AND               
BELOW. LATEST RUC-WRF SHOWING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING INTO              
CWA THIS MORNING...AND DEEPENING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PERUSING BUFR              
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA GIVES MIXED RESULTS...AS TEMPERATURES VERY             
CLOSE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF ICE INTRODUCTION AT THE TOP OF THE             
CLOUD LAYER /-10C/. ALSO OF CONCERN...IS TRANSIENT MID CLOUDS WHICH             
MAY SEED LOWER LEVEL DECKS AT TIMES THROUGH DAY. ALSO...LIFT IN THE             
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC CHARTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN/ON TOP              
OF THE SATURATED LAYER...SO I DIDN/T GO TOO BULLISH ON THIS.                    
STILL...WITH UPSTREAM SITES REPORTING SOME ISOLD -FZDZ...AND ALSO               
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...I CARRIED THIS SCENARIO THROUGH MUCH            
OF THE DAY ACROSS CWA AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE              
AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DON/T THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD            
ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS THIS MORNING...BUT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT /QG             
FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS/ INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF              
THE WAVE...COULD SEE A SOME MORE ORGANIZED AREAS BY LATER IN THE                
AFTERNOON...THUS LOWER POPS IN THE AFTN.                                        
NEXT UP IS THE WAVE FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY THIS EVENING. FORCING                  
SIGNALS DRASTICALLY ON THE UPTICK IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF                 
DETERMINISTIC WRF AND GFS. THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS ROCKIES AS WE                
SPEAK...AND HAS SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE TO TAP...WITH                      
AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND BACKSIDE OF                   
DEPARTING HIGH. WEAK/MOD BUT DEEP Q/G SIGNAL CROSSES SRN 2/3RD OF               
ARX CWA THIS EVENING AMIDST DEEP SATURATION. ISENTROPIC WORK                    
/280-290K/ VERY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG LIFT OVER THE SRN CWA. LATEST              
11.06Z NAM-WRF NOW PUMPING OUT 0.30 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS SRN 2               
TIERS OF COUNTIES...AND 11.00Z GFS NOT FAR BEHIND. BOTH 21Z AND                 
03Z SREF SHOW INCREASING PROBABILITIES...WITH 03Z SREF MEAN                     
INDICATING 2 INCH PLUS OF SNOW IN GRANT COUNTY ALONG IL/WISC                    
BORDER. THINK THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST HIGH END LIKELY POPS RIGHT                 
NOW AND SHOULD BE MOVED CATEGORICAL OVER SRN 1/2 OF CWA WITH NEXT               
ISSUANCE. FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONG ACROSS SRN 2 TIERS OF ARX                     
CWA...AND EVEN CONCERNED ABOUT ANOTHER FRONTOGENETICAL BAND                     
/800MB/ FURTHER NORTH OVER RST TO LSE LINE WHICH MAY BRING ACCUMS               
FURTHER NORTH FOR A TIME. STILL...ANTICIPATE THE LONGEST                        
DURATION/STRONG FORCING ACROSS ALL OF NERN IA INTO SWRN WI...WHERE              
I AM RUNNING 2.0-3.5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. GIVEN STRONG                       
CONSISTENT SIGNALS IN SREF/GFS/NAM WRF...AND ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IN              
SPC 5KM WRF AND HI RES CANADIAN...WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF              
WE NEED TO MOVE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE SRN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES FOR              
3-4 OR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. COBB DATA INDICATING SNOW-WATER RATIOS               
A LITTLE LESS THAN RECENTLY SEEN...DUE TO INFLUX OF WARMER                      
AIR...MAINLY 11-13:1. NRN FRINGE OF SNOW WILL BE TOUGH /I-90                    
CORRIDOR/...AND THIS AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO 2                
INCHES GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE A TIGHT NRN FRINGE TO THE SNOW.                     
FINALLY...LARGE WRN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTL CONUS MONDAY AND                 
GENS UP SIGNIFICANT/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH. NAM                
IS MUCH MORE NLY THAN ANY OTHER DETERMINISTIC RUN...THUS I AM                   
IGNORING THE DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IT SENDS OUR WAY MONDAY                       
NIGHT/TUES. THE SREF MEANS/PROBABILITIES AND GEFS PROBABILITIES DO              
NOT SUPPORT THIS PCPN THIS FAR NORTH INTO THE DRY NELY FLOW INTO                
THE SRN PLAINS LOW. I DID KEEP THE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR WHAT               
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AS THE NRN FRINGE OF THE                                   
DEFORMATION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BRUSHES BY IN THE I-80/HWY 30                       
CORRIDORS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT 24                        
HOURS...BUT AS OF NOW...AGREEMENT IN ECMWF/GEFS/GFS SEEMS RATHER                
STRONG THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. WILL NEED TO WATCH              
WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUES FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER OPEN AREAS OF                  
NERN IA WITH WHAT FALLS THIS EVENING.                                           
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
PATTERN RE-AMPLIFICATION SEEMS IN THE CARDS IN THE WAKE OF THE                  
STRONG SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE CNTL-ERN CONUS MON-WED. NEW 11.00Z                 
GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN                 
RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WITH ARX CWA IN STRONG NWLY FLOW. ECMWF SHOWS                  
RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THIS FLOW FRI/SAT SO THIS                
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR SNOW CHANCES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES              
STARTING OUT VERY COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES                 
THROUGH...THEN MODERATION AS PROXIMITY OF PACIFIC AIRMASS ALLOWS                
SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THAT FRI/SAT WAVE. SHOULD SEE                      
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN               
WEEKS...THOUGH LIKELY TO STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL GIVEN LOCATION OF               
RIDGE AXIS AND NWLY FLOW. MAY BE ANOTHER BRIEF DUMP OF ARCTIC AIR               
BEHIND THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE TOO.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
352 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PLENTY...CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE                
TODAY...SNOW CHANCES/ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...AND THEN LARGE WINTER              
STORM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                                       
WITH HPC NOTING NAM-WRF INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NRN STREAM...HAVE              
SIDED THE FORECAST STRONGLY IN GFS/SREF COURT...WITH THESE                      
SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS HI-RES CANADIAN GIVING A RATHER STRONG                     
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 48-60 HOURS.                                        
FIRST THING WE NEED TO ADDRESS IS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE                          
POSSIBILITIES TODAY IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME                   
AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.              
AREA PROFILERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RAPIDLY EXPANDING               
IFR CEILING/VISIBILITY DECK IN SWRN MN/NWRN IA MOVING EAST ON                   
WESTERLY 925MB WINDS ON WOOD LAKE PROFILER. HAVE SEEN                           
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO OUR WEST LOWER QUICKLY...WITH WFO DMX                  
NOTING SOME ICING OCCURRING IN NRN IA WHERE VSBYS DOWN TO 2SM AND BELOW.        
LATEST RUC-WRF SHOWING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING INTO CWA                 
THIS MORNING...AND DEEPENING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PERUSING BUFR                  
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA GIVES MIXED RESULTS...AS TEMPERATURES                  
VERY CLOSE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF ICE INTRODUCTION AT THE TOP               
OF THE CLOUD LAYER /-10C/. ALSO OF CONCERN...IS TRANSIENT MID                   
CLOUDS WHICH MAY SEED LOWER LEVEL DECKS AT TIMES THROUGH DAY.                   
ALSO...LIFT IN THE WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC CHARTS NOT ALL THAT                
IMPRESSIVE IN/ON TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER...SO I DIDN/T GO TOO                
BULLISH ON THIS. STILL...WITH UPSTREAM SITES REPORTING SOME ISOLD               
-FZDZ...AND ALSO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...I CARRIED THIS                 
SCENARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS CWA AS THE MOISTURE                     
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DON/T THINK              
IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS THIS                      
MORNING...BUT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT /QG FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS/               
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WAVE...COULD SEE A                 
SOME MORE ORGANIZED AREAS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS LOWER                
POPS IN THE AFTN.                                                               
NEXT UP IS THE WAVE FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY THIS EVENING. FORCING                  
SIGNALS DRASTICALLY ON THE UPTICK IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF                 
DETERMINISTIC WRF AND GFS. THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS ROCKIES AS WE                
SPEAK...AND HAS SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE TO TAP...WITH                      
AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND BACKSIDE OF                   
DEPARTING HIGH. WEAK/MOD BUT DEEP Q/G SIGNAL CROSSES SRN 2/3RD OF               
ARX CWA THIS EVENING AMIDST DEEP SATURATION. ISENTROPIC WORK                    
/280-290K/ VERY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG LIFT OVER THE SRN CWA. LATEST              
11.06Z NAM-WRF NOW PUMPING OUT 0.30 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS SRN 2               
TIERS OF COUNTIES...AND 11.00Z GFS NOT FAR BEHIND. BOTH 21Z AND                 
03Z SREF SHOW INCREASING PROBABILITIES...WITH 03Z SREF MEAN                     
INDICATING 2 INCH PLUS OF SNOW IN GRANT COUNTY ALONG IL/WISC                    
BORDER. THINK THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST HIGH END LIKELY POPS RIGHT                 
NOW AND SHOULD BE MOVED CATEGORICAL OVER SRN 1/2 OF CWA WITH NEXT               
ISSUANCE. FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONG ACROSS SRN 2 TIERS OF ARX                     
CWA...AND EVEN CONCERNED ABOUT ANOTHER FRONTOGENETICAL BAND                     
/800MB/ FURTHER NORTH OVER RST TO LSE LINE WHICH MAY BRING ACCUMS               
FURTHER NORTH FOR A TIME. STILL...ANTICIPATE THE LONGEST                        
DURATION/STRONG FORCING ACROSS ALL OF NERN IA INTO SWRN WI...WHERE              
I AM RUNNING 2.0-3.5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. GIVEN STRONG                       
CONSISTENT SIGNALS IN SREF/GFS/NAM WRF...AND ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IN              
SPC 5KM WRF AND HI RES CANADIAN...WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF              
WE NEED TO MOVE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE SRN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES FOR              
3-4 OR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. COBB DATA INDICATING SNOW-WATER RATIOS               
A LITTLE LESS THAN RECENTLY SEEN...DUE TO INFLUX OF WARMER                      
AIR...MAINLY 11-13:1. NRN FRINGE OF SNOW WILL BE TOUGH /I-90                    
CORRIDOR/...AND THIS AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO 2                
INCHES GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE A TIGHT NRN FRINGE TO THE SNOW.                     
FINALLY...LARGE WRN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTL CONUS MONDAY AND                 
GENS UP SIGNIFICANT/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH. NAM                
IS MUCH MORE NLY THAN ANY OTHER DETERMINISTIC RUN...THUS I AM                   
IGNORING THE DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IT SENDS OUR WAY MONDAY                       
NIGHT/TUES. THE SREF MEANS/PROBABILITIES AND GEFS PROBABILITIES DO              
NOT SUPPORT THIS PCPN THIS FAR NORTH INTO THE DRY NELY FLOW INTO                
THE SRN PLAINS LOW. I DID KEEP THE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR WHAT               
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AS THE NRN FRINGE OF THE                                   
DEFORMATION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BRUSHES BY IN THE I-80/HWY 30                       
CORRIDORS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT 24                        
HOURS...BUT AS OF NOW...AGREEMENT IN ECMWF/GEFS/GFS SEEMS RATHER                
STRONG THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. WILL NEED TO WATCH              
WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUES FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER OPEN AREAS OF                  
NERN IA WITH WHAT FALLS THIS EVENING.                                           
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
PATTERN RE-AMPLIFICATION SEEMS IN THE CARDS IN THE WAKE OF THE                  
STRONG SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE CNTL-ERN CONUS MON-WED. NEW 11.00Z                 
GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN                 
RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WITH ARX CWA IN STRONG NWLY FLOW. ECMWF SHOWS                  
RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THIS FLOW FRI/SAT SO THIS                
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR SNOW CHANCES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES              
STARTING OUT VERY COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES                 
THROUGH...THEN MODERATION AS PROXIMITY OF PACIFIC AIRMASS ALLOWS                
SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THAT FRI/SAT WAVE. SHOULD SEE                      
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN               
WEEKS...THOUGH LIKELY TO STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL GIVEN LOCATION OF               
RIDGE AXIS AND NWLY FLOW. MAY BE ANOTHER BRIEF DUMP OF ARCTIC AIR               
BEHIND THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE TOO.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1039 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ARCTIC HIGH OVER WESTERN IOWA             
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. 12Z 850MB UPPER AIR PLOT INDICATES COLD POOL              
OF -17 AT MPX...GRB AND -12 DEGREES CELSIUS AT DVN THIS MORNING.                
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN                   
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LATEST RUC INDICATES ARCTIC COLD POOL OVER              
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO EASTERN IOWA            
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO LOWER MAX                   
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
DTJ                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2007/                         
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY                                                    
SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON LIGHT SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND                 
SUNDAY...AND SYSTEM SKIRTING BY TO OUR SOUTH MON...WITH CONTINUED               
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                                      
CURRENTLY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STILL RUNNING FROM SASKATCHEWAN                
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SIOUX FALLS AND OMAHA. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS                  
COMBINING WITH THE SUBZERO TEMPS TO CREATE LOCAL WIND CHILLS OF 15              
TO 30 BELOW ZERO. WITH VERY FEW SITES MEETING CRITERIA-MANDATED 10              
MPH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY.                                                
SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN NWP MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING...BUT                   
EFFECTS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL IN ARX CWA IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE                     
WEATHER.                                                                        
TODAY...SURFACE HIGH TO QUICKLY SINK SOUTH INTO SRN IA BY THIS                  
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING                   
MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT WEAK PERTURBATIONS ZIP DOWN              
THE NWLY FLOW INTO THE REGION BY TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS               
MORNING. AS PER LAST WEEK OR SO...UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS MOST                       
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN SERN MN/NERN IA PER PVS FORECAST. ANOTHER                 
DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME                  
COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MODERATE AS WINDS                    
DECREASE AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO IOWA.            
TONIGHT...STARTING TO SEE INCREASING SIGNAL IN OPERATIONAL RUNS                 
OF 10.00Z GFS/WRF AND 21Z/03Z SREF OF A COUPLE WEAK WAVES                       
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING INCREASING THERMODYNAMIC LIFT OVER AREA.                 
VERY LITTLE SIGNAL OF THESE SYSTEMS ALOFT...BUT MARKED WARM                     
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC SIGNALS. 275-285K LAYER DEPICTS INCREASING                 
ASCENT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES IN ON SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.                
BUFR SOUNDINGS /WRF AND GFS/ SHOWING MUCH OF THE OMEGA CENTERED                 
VERY LOW ON THE SOUNDINGS...TIED DIRECTLY TO THIS ISENTROPIC                    
LIFT/WARM ADVECTION. SREF NOW DEPICTS A RATHER DECENT SIGNAL FOR                
MEASURABLE SNOW...CENTERED SQUARELY ON ARX CWA FROM 09Z THROUGH                 
18Z AS ISENTROPIC OMEGA MAX CROSSES CWA. ALSO A WEAK 850-700MB Q/G              
SIGNAL WITH THE VERY WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. WITH SATURATED PORTIONS               
OF SOUNDINGS AGAIN RESIDING IN OR VERY NEAR DENDRITIC ZONE /-12C                
TO -18C/...WON/T BE HARD TO BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF DECENT SNOW TO              
THE AREA AS THIS BAND OF FORCING MOVES THROUGH. MOVED POPS INTO                 
CHANCE RANGE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CWA...AND              
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MOVED FURTHER TOWARD LIKELY IF CURRENT                     
SIGNALS PERSIST. ACCUMS WON/T BE MORE THAN AN INCH...AND MAY NOT                
BE MORE THAN A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS GIVEN WEAK FORCING.                   
FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TURNS TO WRN ENERGY AND SFC LOW TO                    
ORGANIZE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. COLD FRONT TIED TO AFOREMENTIONED                 
WAVES SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND SETS UP DRY NELY FLOW IN                
LOW LEVELS OVER MUCH OF CWA. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER              
CNTL PLAINS AS HEIGHT FALLS MOVE OUT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.                
INCREASING MIDLEVEL FORCING /FRONTOGENESIS/ TO OUR SOUTH WILL                   
ORGANIZE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER                      
IOWA...AND STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FURTHER...AS               
SREF POINTS TO A FEW MEMBERS DRAGGING NRN FRINGE OF THIS                        
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND ACROSS FAR SRN TIER OF CWA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY                
WITH LIGHT ACCUM POTENTIAL. DON/T WANT TO GIVE UP ON THIS TOO SOON              
DESPITE THE BETTER CHANCES OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WINNING OUT.                  
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SRN CWA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY UNTIL                
SREF POPS DROP OUT OF CWA...WHICH THEY ARE NOT FOR NOW. BEST                    
CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CLOSEST               
BY...BEFORE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.                                 
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
EXTENDED FORECAST STILL CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL                           
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...BEFORE SLOW MODERATION IS                  
SEEN. NEW 10.00Z ECMWF AND 10.00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL IN STRONG               
AGREEMENT IN AN OTHERWISE PERIOD OF INCREASING UNCERTAINTY ON HOW               
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF                     
FEBRUARY. ON TUESDAY...HUGE 1045MB HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL                   
DROP SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE ERN SEABOARD. ONE MORE                  
ARCTIC PUSH WITH THIS HIGH...AND LIKELY ANOTHER ROUND OF                        
SUBZERO NIGHTS AS THE DRY/COLD AIRMASS FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES                 
TUES/WED MAY NEED TO BE MOVED DOWNWARD IN COMING FORECASTS. THIS                
HIGH SINKS SOUTH OFF THE GULF COAST BY FRIDAY WITH RAPID WARM                   
ADVECTION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING TO              
SOME SEMBLANCE OF NORMALCY...THOUGH LIKELY STILL BELOW CLIMO.                   
SEEMS INCREASING SIGNALS THOUGH THAT PACIFIC AIRMASS /OR A                      
DESCENDANT THEREOF/ WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING INTO THE WRN CONUS NEXT              
WEEKEND...WITH ARCTIC AIR DEPARTING. MAY BE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO                  
WITH WARM ADVECTION SNOW CHANCES AT SOME POINT THURS/FRI...BUT NOT              
ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL YET. BETTER CHANCES RIGHT NOW SEEM TO BE ON                  
FRIDAY. WILL LET DAY CREW ASSESS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
303 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007                                                      
...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THRU TUE NIGHT...                                     
.SYNOPSIS...WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE INDICATED OVER THE CENTRAL                   
GOMEX BY BOTH H2O VAPOR SAT PIX AND RUC ANALYSIS WITH LARGE SHIELD              
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS THE SE US. LIGHT TO                 
MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS THE S FL PENINSULA WHERE THE SHORT               
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC                  
ALSO INDICATING VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL FL...BUT AS YET               
THIS APPEARS TO BE VIRGA. ANOTHER ELONGATED SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM              
THE PAC NW TO EXTREME N MEXICO. CLOUDINESS HAS SLOWED TEMP DROP                 
OVER MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM              
THE LOWER 40S OVER N ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE S. INVERTED                  
TROF IS LOCATED OVER OUR ATLC WATERS.                                           
.SHORT TERM...MODELS SHIFT S SHORTWAVE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF                
THE GOMEX AND THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. MEANWHILE...N SYSTEM                      
AMPLIFIES AND MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS AGREE THAT THESE                  
SYSTEMS DON`T PHASE UNTIL BOTH ARE NE OF OUR AREA. AT THE                       
SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE E INTO THE SE US...THEN SHIFT               
NE AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST AND MERGES WITH THE                 
AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.                                   
GFS...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NGM....DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW OVER                 
THE E GOMEX LATE TODAY AND MOVE IT ACROSS S CENTRAL FL. REGARDLESS              
OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...POSITION OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT                  
WILL LIKELY STAY S OF OUR CWA UNTIL THIS WEAKNESS MOVES AWAY AND                
SE FLOW CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF STRONGER LOW.                    
HOWEVER...INCREASING THICKNESSES AND GENERAL VEERING LOW LEVEL                  
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS               
FOR TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE S 1/3 OF THE AREA DUE TO MODEST                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT MOST OF               
THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND STRATIFORM IN NATURE.                               
PRECIP INCREASES TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY E AREAS AS WARM FRONT                    
BEGINS TO LIFT N. PRECIP FIELDS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFUSED TUE                
AFTN AND EVENING AS LOWS CONSOLIDATE N OF THE AREA. NONE OF THE                 
MODELS INDICATE MUCH OF AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH THIS                      
SYSTEM...EITHER ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF OF THE FRONT ITSELF...               
PROBABLY DUE TO COMPETING FLOW FROM SFC FEATURES PROVIDING LIMITED              
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NAM DOES HINT AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION W OF               
THE AREA TUE AFTN...BUT IT MOSTLY FALLS APART BEFORE REACHING OUR               
W ZONES. STILL EXPECT ISOLD STRONG TO SVR STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY            
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. GREATEST              
THREAT FROM ANY STORMS APPEARS TO BE HAIL ATTM WITH 500 MB TEMPS                
AROUND -15 C AND ENUF SHEAR TO TILT STORMS TUE AFTN AND EVENING.                
CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE                       
NIGHT...BUT 850 MB PROGS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF WRAP-AROUND LOW                
CLOUDS THRU WED OVER N ZONES.                                                   
MAV AND NAM MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND A BLEND WAS USED                
WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUD COVER. FOG THREAT WILL BE                
LIMITED BY CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND BY CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW                 
LEVEL WINDS TUE MORNING. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG AT BEST.                       
.LONG TERM...COLD STRETCH STILL LOOKS LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK...                  
SEVERAL DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING LOWS OVER INLAND SECTIONS. TEMPS                   
EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS                    
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS THIS                
PACKAGE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED DELAY THE ONSET OF FOG                  
BUT THIN SPOTS COMING IN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUES AM WILL HELP                  
PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF FOG. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR AFTER 09Z AT                  
JAX...CRG...SSI AND PUT IN A TEMPO AT GNV FOR IFR BETWEEN 09Z                   
AND 13Z. SE WINDS BRING IN INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND                   
HAVE GONE WITH CIGS AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH THE MORNING...INCREASING             
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP                  
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FL PEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL                   
FORM IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN             
AREAS. HAVE GONE WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AT GNV AFTER 19Z.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN TODAY AS HIGH                     
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE                      
SOUTHERN FL PEN. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE TO SCEC LEVELS OFFSHORE                    
TODAY. INCREASING SE FETCH BUILDS SEAS TO THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE                 
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM FOR THE FL OFFSHORE AND HAVE GONE               
WITH SCA THERE FOR TONIGHT INTO TUES AM. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED                
TUES NIGHT/WED AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  70  52  71  48 /   0  10  60  50                                           
SSI  67  55  69  52 /  10  30  50  50                                           
JAX  71  55  73  52 /  20  30  40  40                                           
SGJ  69  59  72  54 /  20  40  40  40                                           
GNV  72  53  75  51 /  30  30  50  40                                           
OCF  71  55  75  52 /  40  30  50  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY FOR                    
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-               
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARROLL/PETERSON                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
520 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.               
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE PERSISTENT SURFACE               
RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION SLIPS OFF THE EAST COAST THIS               
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY TODAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD                 
AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED              
SURFACE LOW. GFS IS STILL A LITTLE MORE EAGER TO SHIFT THE SURFACE              
LOW FURTHER EAST FASTER TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS OFF THE              
CAROLINA COAST. ALL IN ALL THE EFFECT IS THE SAME FOR GEORGIA AS A              
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW.               
MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP A SUPER LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION...BUT             
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR THE THREAT OF SOME SEVERE            
STORMS AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP               
AROUND MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY EVENING...BUT I THINK THE           
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING BEFORE THE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVES IN           
LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR ANY WINTRY CHANGEOVER.                                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GOES THROUGH A REAMPLIFICATION DURING THE               
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST AND THE           
EASTERN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST              
AREA BACK INTO A COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THE UPPER                 
PATTERN IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THIS SET UP WAS THE PAST                 
COUPLE OF WEEKS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST SLOWLY            
OVER TIME. IN THE MEANTIME A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN THE              
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH BRINGING US A CHANCE FOR SOME                    
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME THE GFS IS KEEPING THE                 
REGION COOL ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBILITY THIS COULD END UP BEING AT LEAST           
A RAIN SNOW MIX. THIS IS AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST AND A LOT CAN              
CHANGE IN 6 DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST 06Z RUN OF NAM AND GFS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA EARLIER THAN               
PREVIOUS RUN. NAM AND GFS HAVE 925MB MOISTURE INCREASING OVER                   
FLORIDA AND MOVING RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL AND EARN GA BY 18Z. AM NOT              
READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET BUT WILL BEGIN TRENDING LOWER LEVEL                  
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MCN AND AHN. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WEST            
AND NORTH AFTER 00Z BRINGING CIGS DOWN TO 1500 TO 2500 FT BY 06Z TO             
09Z ALL SITES. OTHER PROBLEM IS THE 5K FT CLOUDS OVER AL. MODELS                
APPEAR TO BE A BIT SLOW IN SPREADING THIS EASTWARD BUT ALSO ADVECT              
THE MOISTURE NORTHEAST KEEPING IT OUT OF ATL. THE RUC CONTINUES TO              
SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL. HOWEVER SEEING THAT THE CLOUDS ARE FURTHER             
EAST THAN WHAT THE MODELS SHOW FOR THIS TIME WILL ADD SCT050 IN ATL             
AREA AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST BUT LESS THAN 10 KTS.                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          64  43  59  38  45 /   0   5  80  40   5                        
ATLANTA         64  48  61  37  43 /   0   5  80  40   5                        
BLAIRSVILLE     59  40  57  33  41 /   5  10  80  50   5                        
CARTERSVILLE    62  44  58  35  40 /   5  10  80  50   5                        
COLUMBUS        67  48  65  41  50 /   0   5  60  30   5                        
GAINESVILLE     62  46  58  37  44 /   5   5  80  50   5                        
MACON           68  48  66  43  53 /   0   5  60  30   5                        
ROME            61  43  63  32  43 /   5  20  90  50   5                        
PEACHTREE CITY  63  44  63  35  44 /   0   5  80  40   5                        
VIDALIA         69  52  68  48  56 /   0  10  60  30   5                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
20/20                                                                           
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
645 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
S/W APPEARS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AS VISIBILITIES DROP TO 2 MILES IN THE            
NORTH AND 5-7 WEST CENTRAL.  WILL ALSO ADJUST TEMPS AS FALL HAS                 
PRETTY MUCH ENDED AND STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING.  RUC HANDLING THIS               
SITUATION WELL.                                                                 
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
PLENTY OF ISSUES IN THIS FORECAST AS SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM PASSES                  
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGE PASSING              
ACRS THE STATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE               
RIDGE WL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT AS WAA                        
INTENSIFIES.  CLDS ALREADY SPREADING INTO WESTERN IA IN ASSOCIATION             
WITH THE WAA AND EXPECT THEM TO MOVE ACRS ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT.                 
SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO REMAIN PSBL WITH THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR.               
TEMPS WL BOTTOM THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING READINGS DURING THE             
NIGHT WITH INCREASING GRADIENT AND CLDS.                                        
IA WL BE IN THE "WARM SECTOR" ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING TO               
THEIR WARMEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 26TH.  HAVE MODERATED THE                    
GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT WITH SNOW COVER AND WINDS NOT OVERLY CONDUCIVE TO             
LARGE WARMUP...BUT THIS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.  OTHERWISE...COLD                
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A               
SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  SOME FLURRIES OR LGT SNOW MAY BE             
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE LARGE INCREASE IN PCPN                    
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS LIKELY NOW AND HAVE CUT BACK                
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY              
WL SEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR IN SE COLORADO AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH             
THE WESTERN U.S.  BOUNDARY IN IA WL EASE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH            
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING ACRS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE                      
DEVELOPING LOW.  IT NOW APPEARS PCPN SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING OUT AFTER            
MIDNIGHT ACRS THE SOUTH IN INCREASING WAA WITH A BAND FARTHER NORTH             
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.  HAVE TRENDED            
POPS HIGHER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.  SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME                
WARM AIR ALOFT AND SOME MIXTURE REMAINS PSBL IN THE FAR SOUTH PRIOR             
TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY AS PCPN INTENSITY INCREASES.                
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WL SEE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE              
STATE WITH BEST UVV ACRS THE SOUTH.  PCPN RATES EXPECTED TO INCREASE            
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHEST QPF IN THE SOUTH.  QPF AND HPC GUIDANCE             
WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING WARNING                
CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING.  BUFKIT PCPN OVERVIEW AND COBB PCPN                
ALSO GIVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ACRS SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA. GIVEN                 
RECENT MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING                     
OFFICES...WL ISSUE STRONGLY WORDED HWO BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO            
SEE SOME HEADLINES ISSUED TONIGHT.  WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO CRANK UP BY            
MONDAY NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND DEEPENING LOW SO BLOWING               
SNOW MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AS WELL.                                              
SYSTEM TO DEPART ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING LGT SNOW ACRS THE SE            
IN THE MORNING.  THEN LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WL SETTLE ACRS THE STATE              
WITH COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES.  REMAINDER OF             
EXTENDED IS DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH SOME                 
MODERATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
COGIL/FORSTER 203/39                                                            
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
235 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND             
SHIFTING OUR NEXT SURFACE CYCLONE EAST...IS PROGRESSING AS SCHEDULED            
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING SOME                       
INTERESTING SIGNATURES OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING...SOME                 
EVIDENCE THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION EXISTS AND THAT THE STRENGTH AND             
STRUCTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE DIFFERENT THAN WHAT MODELS HAVE            
SUGGESTED THUS FAR.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION                
TODAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.                  
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST              
CHALLENGES.  HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLOODING OVER SOUTH                 
CENTRAL/CENTRAL MISSOURI WAS ALSO CLOSELY ANALYZED.                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...                                                 
CONCERNS ARE INCREASING REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED OFF               
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA.  NONE OF THE MODELS HAD                    
SUGGESTED THIS TO HAPPEN.  IF STRENGTHENING OCCURS AS THE                       
CIRCULATION SHIFTS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO...THEN                  
ENHANCED LIFT ON IT`S NORTHERN FLANK WOULD FAVOR A TRACK DIRECTLY               
OVER THE CWA.                                                                   
MEANWHILE TIMING WOULD FAVOR RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AT ABOUT                
THIS TIME.  THE LATEST RUC80 MAY BE CATCHING ON WITH THE SYSTEM`S               
STRUCTURE.  500 MB THETA E FIELDS ARE SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL TROWAL               
DEVELOPING BY 18Z THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR WICHITA BACK INTO THE                  
PANHANDLES.  I`M NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE                   
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WE`LL BE KEEPING A            
CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                      
LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS COMMENCED OVER WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA EARLY             
THIS MORNING.  RAIN IS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...WHICH WILL                
EVENTUALLY SPREAD OVER SE KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATER                  
TODAY.  AREAL COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD BE 100%...AND THATS            
WHAT WE`LL BE GOING WITH IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HEAVY RAIN IS               
LIKELY AS MODELS SUGGEST PWATS APPROACHING 1.00...WHICH IS HIGH FOR             
THE TIME OF YEAR.  DUE TO THE LACK OF FEBRUARY VEGETATION...RAINFALL            
SURPLUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND A FROZEN GROUND...WE`LL BE            
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44...FROM                  
SPRINGFIELD TO ROLLA.                                                           
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING IN BEHIND THE LOW             
CENTER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  RAIN WILL CHANGE               
OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT              
TONIGHT.  RESIDUAL FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE              
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING EAST OF THE                
REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                        
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY)...                                               
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW OUR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACTIVE                   
WEATHER.  LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN JUST            
ABOUT EVERY PERIOD.  THE ARCTIC HIGH IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE DOWN             
THE PLAINS AND TRACK ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THE HIGH...OR OVER WESTERN                  
CANADA...ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING -25 TO -30 DEGS.                             
A WARM UP MAY BE IN SIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS LONG RANGE                
PROGS.  BY NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE MODELS                    
SUGGESTS THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MIDDLE AMERICA.                 
THIS SUGGESTED PATTERN HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED FOR TWO OR THREE                   
MONTHS.  ONGOING PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN THE EXTENDED LOOKED                 
GOOD...AND MADE NO CHANGES.                                                     
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...                                              
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED THIS EVENING WHILE GRADUALLY LOWERING. SOME             
VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED AT KSGF DURING THE PAST HOUR AND               
THE VISIBILITY...WHILE STILL VFR...HAS BEEN AFFECTED. WILL DROP THE             
VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS FAVORED BY             
CONDITIONAL CLIMO. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA NEAR                        
SUNRISE...AND HAVE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR DURING THE MORNING.               
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE                  
EVENING HOURS. DSA                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF I44 AND EAST OF US 65 THROUGH TUESDAY                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1138 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...                                                             
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS PRECIPITATION TYPE               
TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE.                                                    
IN THE SHORT TERM...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ENVELOPED THE AREA WITH A                
STEADY DROP WEST OF THE KS/MO BORDER DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE. THESE             
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2KFT AGL OVERNIGHT...WITH                    
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 4-6SM RANGE AS SOME PATCHY LIGHT                  
DRIZZLE ACCOMPANIES THE MODEST WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION.                     
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS                
NEBRASKA AND IOWA TO DISSOLVE TOWARD DAYBREAK AS A SECONDARY FRONT              
DEVELOPS FROM KTUL-KSGF-KSTL. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK INTO THE            
EAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST.                                                  
HOWEVER...WITH THE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS IS NOT A COLD                
ADVECTION DIRECTION AND AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE               
AREA TOWARD NOON...RAIN IS EXPECTED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...                      
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE WITH HEIGHT SO PILOTS WILL LIKELY                    
ENCOUNTER A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN                  
5-7KFT AGL.                                                                     
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO ARKANSAS MONDAY EVENING...WINDS             
OVER NW MO WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE                    
NORTHEAST. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS MAY BECOME FREQUENT TOWARD DAYBREAK             
TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GRADUAL                
WIND SHIFT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT THE KANSAS               
CITY TERMINALS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. FOR THIS REASON HAVE DELAYED             
THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL AND REDUCED THE CHANCES FOR BOTH KMKC/KMCI.               
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS AS A SIGNIFICANT               
WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION. GFS/NAM/SREF ARE IN GOOD                   
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. DID NOTICE              
THAT LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE SURFACE LOW A TAD                 
FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS ALSO CLOSE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL                
SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS A TAD FASTER THAN THE             
NAM. PRIMARY DIFFERENCES...ALTHOUGH MINOR...ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE             
MASS FIELDS...AND THEY COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON THE                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER. OVERALL FELT THE GFS/SREF OFFER THE BEST                      
CONTINUITY WITH A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE GFS QPF...AT LEAST                 
INITIALLY.                                                                      
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE EFFECTIVELY DRAWN UP WARMER MORE            
MOIST AIR. NOW THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN TEMPERATURES OVER             
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD ONLY DRIFT DOWNWARD WHILE AN                
EARLY EVENING LOW ANTICIPATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE               
REBOUNDING ONCE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE MOVE IN THIS EVENING.                   
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERALL GRIDS ON PLACEMENT              
AND TIMING OF THE DIFFERENT WEATHER TYPES. SLEET NOT AS MUCH OF AN              
ISSUE BUT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BECOME A MORE             
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. STILL EXPECTING AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO             
SET UP BY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MO. ONCE THE FRONT SETS              
UP IT SHOULD HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND WAIT TILL               
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. ONCE THAT OCCURS              
THE COLDER AIR NECESSARY TO SUFFICIENTLY COOL THE COLUMN FOR A                  
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD. RIGHT NOW THAT LOOKS LIKE             
IT WILL BEGIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.             
UNTIL THEN INSPECTION OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LACK OF ICE             
CRYSTALS ACROSS NORTHERN MO SO FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE               
PRIMARY WEATHER TYPE WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY              
LINE SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN. THAT BEING SAID WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE              
ON MORNING TEMPERATURES AND ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE EXTREME                  
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE FURTHEST FROM THE MORE MOIST AIR             
AND MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE START OF THE MORNING FOR SOME PATCHY              
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING THE DAY.            
PRIMARY LIFT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
CENTERED ON THE 300K SURFACE AND PRONOUNCED SLOPED FRONTOGENIC                  
FORCING WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW RATES ACROSS NORTHERN MO. STILL               
CONCERNED ABOUT THE 3-4 G/KG OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW                     
PRODUCTION BUT TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE BEST                  
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS NOW CENTERED BELOW THE FAVORED DENDRITIC              
GROWTH ZONE. IF THIS REGION OF UVV SHIFTS UPWARDS THEN LATER                    
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS.                        
LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF                      
CONVECTION. EXPECT ANY THUNDER ON MONDAY TO OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF THE             
CWA BUT IF THE MODELS SHIFT THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH THEN THIS WILL              
NEED TO BE REVISITED. PVU PROGS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR                     
CONVECTIVE SNOWS WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH FORMS LATE MONDAY            
NIGHT OVER EASTERN KS. THIS WAS PRIMARY REASON TO EXTEND THE WINTER             
STORM WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL LAST             
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER                
WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO              
MEET WARNING CRITERIA. STILL A WAYS OUT BUT JUST ANOTHER ITEM TO                
CONSIDER.                                                                       
MJ                                                                              
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...                                                             
FOR A COUPLE DAYS FOLLOWING THE EARLY WORK WEEK WINTER STORM                    
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW                   
NORMAL. A COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL FLOW SOUTH AS THE WINTER STORM                 
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE PLAINS. TRENDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY                      
TEMPERATURES DOWN AS A RESULT. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A SLOW BEGINNING             
TO A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.                          
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO                 
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE FLOW             
ACROSS THE PACIFIC SPLITS. THIS MAKES FOR A MESSY PATTERN IN THE                
OFFING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AND BY MESSY I MEAN HARD            
TO PIN DOWN WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE                
BACK TOWARDS SEASONALLY NORMAL VALUES AS THE PROGGED WEST COAST                 
RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF ANY               
WAVES AND THEIR TIMING IS VERY POOR OWING TO THE SPLIT FLOW.                    
THEREFORE...HAVE AVOIDED ATTACHING POPS TO ANY OF THE SHORTWAVES                
PROGGED TO COMING ZIPPING THROUGH PLAINS OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE              
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                                          
CUTTER                                                                          
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
505 AM...                                                                       
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT                
WINTER STORM ACROSS THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.                            
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER             
THE REGION WITH THE ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER PRODUCING UPPER WAVE             
FINALLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS                   
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR                
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING                
UPPER SYSTEM.                                                                   
FORECAST GRIDS GENERALLY SIDED TOWARD THE GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE AS              
THEY HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THERMAL FIELDS AND THE GFS              
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT WITH THE HEAVIER QPF.               
INITIAL CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO REDUCE POPS TONIGHT FROM LIKELY              
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT WON`T BE REACHING           
THE AREA UNTIL TOWARD DAWN. IN ADDITION...THE 21Z RUN OF THE SREF WAS           
POINTING MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF CHANCE POPS.                                  
STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND HOW FAST THE                
COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE             
RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MEAN             
SREF DATA SHOWS BOTH THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE AND 0 DEG C LINE AT              
850 MB ONLY MAKING VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON              
MONDAY...WITH THE PROGGED FREEZING LINE NOT MAKING IT TO THE METRO              
AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GFS POINT                     
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT AND THERE IS CONCERN            
REGARDING HOW MUCH THE EXPECTED STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL COOL THE            
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.                                                               
THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG OMEGAS AND MID-           
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA                 
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70                
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY GET THE BEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST QPFS IS THIS             
FORCING PANS OUT. WILL START OUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA AS ALL RAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WINTERY MIX ACROSS OUR FAR             
NORTHERN 2 OR 3 TIERS OF COUNTIES. WILL ANTICIPATE THAT COLD AIR WILL           
MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND TRANSITION NORTHERN AREAS TO MAINLY              
SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70                  
CORRIDOR STARTING TO GET A WINTRY MIX...BUT RAIN HOLDING ON ACROSS              
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DURATION OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY                 
LATE MONDAY EVENING...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW.            
POINT SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE LONG PERIODS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS.              
THEY SHOW MORE OF A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY A FEW HOUR TRANSITION              
PERIOD WHERE AN ICY MIX IS POSSIBLE.                                            
KEPT THE STORM TOTAL SNOW GRIDS AS IS SINCE IT DEPICTED THE HEAVIEST            
SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND WAS SIMILAR TO THE HPC                  
GUIDANCE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TOTALS FURTHER...AS CROSS-           
SECTIONS SHOW A NICE BULLSEYE OF LIFT WITHIN THE BEST TEMPERATURES              
FOR DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN                           
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS MIXING RATIOS ARE            
IN THE 3 TO 4 G/KG RANGE. WITH CONCERNS REGARDING PRECIP                        
TYPE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON UPPING TOTALS YET. FORECAST SNOW                  
TOTALS ARE FOR AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN 2 OR 3 TIERS            
OF COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS LOWERING TO AN INCH OR TWO OVER FAR                    
SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY MORNING.                 
WENT AHEAD AN HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN                  
MISSOURI FROM 12Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST              
CHANCE OF GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR HEAVIER SNOW...AND AS MENTIONED               
BEFORE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER MID-LEVEL FORCING. IF COLDER AIR              
FILTERS IN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE           
EXPANDED SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE               
CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH.                   
MADE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS.                                    
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 12 PM TUESDAY FOR                   
MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-                 
MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017.                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
930 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE                
YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST SOUTH OF THE KEYS             
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND INTO                  
THE NW BAHAMAS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF UPR            
LVL JET MAX ACROSS CWA WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT RIGHT ABOVE THE                 
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE STRAITS. THE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A                    
NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W TROUGH JUST DUE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN                      
PENINSULA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME WITH PLENTY            
OF DIVERGENCE TO ITS EAST NORTHEAST ALOFT. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR                
LOOPS OVER PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE AXIS OF THE S/W                 
BECOMING LESS NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ONE WOULD EXPECT UPR LVL DIV TO             
DECREASE WITH THAT IF THAT TREND CONTINUES. FOR THE TIME BEING                  
HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR                      
CONVECTION...EVEN STRONG CONVECTION LIKE IT IS HAPPENING ACROSS THE             
KEYS. WHEN LOOKING AT THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ONE CAN SEE THE                 
LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME AND THAT IS LIMITED CAPE (LESS THAN                
1000) WITH TEMP PROFILES THAT LOOK VERY CLOSE TO MOIST ADIABATIC A              
RESULT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR ADVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TAKING                
PLACE SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THIS IS DESPITE            
MODIFIED AFTERNOON LI`S OF AROUND -4. NOW...THE QUESTION IS WHAT                
HAPPENS FROM THIS POINT ON.                                                     
THIS IS WHERE YOU GO ON A LIMB DUE TO THAT DATA HOLE THAT IS THE                
GULF OF MEXICO. THERE COULD BE...ARGUABLY A WEAK SFC LOW TRYING TO              
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT IT IS HARD TO                
FIND EVEN VIA HAND ANALYSIS. THIS IS PERHAPS WHAT GFS IS LATCHING ON            
TO WHICH IT DEVELOPS RATHER AGGRESSIVELY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES IN               
RESPONSE TO UPR LVL S/W FORCING. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN THERE IS NO              
DOUBT SFC TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LIFT NORTH AS THE LOW AND UPR              
LVL S/W APPROACHES WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA TONIGHT INCREASING               
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM12            
...LOCAL WRF...AND RUC DO NOT QUITE BUY THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP THE              
SFC TROUGH EITHER TO OUR SOUTH OR MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN                    
PORTIONS OF CWA. THIS WOULD KEEP ANY POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER              
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTH AND EXTREME ESE FLORIDA COAST. AT THIS TIME               
HAVE OPTED TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN HWO OVER NEXT            
FEW HOURS IN GULF STREAM WATERS SE OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ACROSS THE               
OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES WITH THE                
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER            
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IF THE SFC TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND               
THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD TO OVERCOME LACK OF CONVECTIVE             
INSTABILITY (AND THERE ARE SOME). RIGHT NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH SHEAR             
FOR THE AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE              
NAM12 AND RUC40 BRN EXCEPT FOR THE GFS40 WHICH SHOWS BRN TYPICAL OF             
SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENTS.                                                         
AT THIS TIME THE PRUDENT THING TO DO IS KEEP TALKING ABOUT THE                  
POTENTIAL...WHICH CERTAINLY EXISTS... BUT KEEP IT AT THAT UNTIL                 
TRENDS IN THE DATA BEGINS TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION. HWO WILL BE                
UPDATED AS NEEDED DURING THE DAY.                                               
OTHER THAN THAT WILL TAPER DOWN THE 100 POPS TO 80 TO KEEP IT                   
CATEGORICAL AS IT IS EVIDENT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY LONG BUT            
CERTAINLY MOST OF THE DAY. OTHER THAN THAT CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON                
TRACK. DESPITE SEVERE WEATHER OR NOT...THERE IS A CHC OF TSTMS                  
EVERYWHERE AS S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY.                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A VERY PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION -- SEEN ON WATER VAPOR                  
ANIMATION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF JUST NORTH OF YUCATAN THIS MORNING              
-- WILL HAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE               
NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS                
THAT IT IS LIKELY STRONGER THAN ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE             
WOULD INDICATE...WITH THE GFS SOLUTION PROBABLY CLOSEST TO REALITY.             
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE              
PENINSULA IN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SEEN IN               
AREA VWP DATA.  BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL IS                
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE              
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  AT THE                     
SURFACE...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS               
THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH THE NORTHWARD MOTION LIKELY IMPEDED              
BY DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.  IF            
THIS BOUNDARY INDEED BISECTS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE           
TROPICAL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                
HALF OF THE PENINSULA...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL                 
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA                
OVER THE AREA AND LONG HODOGRAPHS PROGGED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.                   
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL APPEARS AS IF IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT               
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER            
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.                
EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO               
NORTHEAST AS THIS OCCURS...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED RAINFALL                  
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EASTWARD OFF THE                
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST            
ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND               
WESTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MIX DOWNWARD. THIS                 
WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON                    
TUESDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA GIVEN           
PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER              
UPPER SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY                   
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT              
ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS SOLUTION               
CLOSELY MATCHED WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF/CMC SUITE IN INDICATING FRONTAL            
PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. WITH WESTERLY FLOW                
IN PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE VERY WARM FOR ALL LOCATIONS...                
BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR QUITE AWHILE AS UPPER LOW                
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING OVER THE                 
NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS TO COME               
CRASHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS                   
STILL A SIGNAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND                    
FRIDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE               
POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA ON                 
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN               
ANY AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH FORECASTED POSITION OF SURFACE HIGH               
ALLOWING FOR A GOOD NORTHERLY FETCH DOWN THE PENINSULA.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO               
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS COPIOUS               
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE STREAM NORTHWARD...HOWEVER CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD            
ONLY DROP BELOW VFR LEVELS IN HEAVIER RAINFALL...WHICH MAY BE STEADY            
FOR A WHILE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS.                 
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IS UNCERTAIN IN REGARDS TO HOW MANY BREAKS IN             
THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEFINITELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR A              
FEW BREAKS AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS KMIA AND KTMB BY MID DAY. FOR NOW              
HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS AS              
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE SOMEWHAT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO                 
WESTERLY ON TUESDAY...AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG                 
THE GULF COAST CAN BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...GULF STREAM SEAS WILL               
SLOWLY RESPOND TO STRONGER WINDS BY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA               
ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS SHOULD EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA BEGINNING ON                 
THURSDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD               
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE                    
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA BEING REACHED ONCE                  
AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS SPREADS              
ACROSS THE AREA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  74  70  81  66 / + 90 40 20                                    
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  71  82  67 / + 90 40 20                                    
MIAMI            75  71  82  68 / + 70 30 20                                    
NAPLES           75  67  78  68 / + 70 30 20                                    
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...70/DD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
935 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
GIVEN THE DEPTH AND OPACITY OF THE MID CLOUD LAYER THIS MORNING AND             
PERHAPS SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW                   
ALOFT... SKY COVER WILL BE INCREASED FOR TODAY THOUGH SOME BREAKS               
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE AS                
ALREADY BEING OBSERVED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  MAX READINGS            
WILL BE REDUCED 2-3 DEGREES AS SUPPORTED BY THE NEWEST RUC AND WRF.             
-RFG                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 315 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING WINDS             
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A LOW             
PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS             
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOISTURE ABOUNDS... THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL              
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.                               
THE TEXAS LOW WILL MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY                   
AFTERNOON... WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINAS. THESE            
TWO SYSTEM WILL MERGE INTO A SINGLE LOW OVER DELMARVA WEDNESDAY                 
MORNING. THUS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.                
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT               
THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL RETREAT WEDNESDAY              
BEFORE THE COLD AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.                                     
HIGHS TODAY MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE... COOLING TO MID 30S NW TO              
MID 409S SE BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TONIGHT...                
DROPPING TO LOWER 30S NW TO AROUND 40 SE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.                      
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US BELOW NORMAL ON                       
TEMPERATURES. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES             
TO CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO              
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A             
SLOW WARMING TREND AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 40S SATURDAY... AND THE              
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE                   
EXTENDED.                                                                       
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH            
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES SHOULD            
BE AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET THROUGH 13Z. CLOUD BASES WILL GRADUALLY               
LOWER TO BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN THOUSAND FEET BY EARLY MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS GRADUALLY GAINS MOISTURE IN INCREASING                
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR               
EVENING...CLOUD BASES CONTINUE TO LOWER TO NEAR MVFR CEILINGS AS                
COLUMNS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO              
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS (NO PRECIPITATION) THROUGH 06Z               
TUESDAY. PRETTY DECENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR PROJECTED FOR                
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE              
INTRODUCED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCE. -WSS/RLH                                      
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
215 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SNOW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.              
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING TWO AREAS OF PRECIP MOVING TOWARD THE CWA AT            
19Z. ONE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT                
WAVE AND THE SECOND OVER KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT                 
AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW. SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND              
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD                  
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. 18Z RUC LIMITS ISENTROPIC            
FORCING TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER DURING THE             
AFTERNOON AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S A                
PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN SLEET AND SNOW LIKELY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL               
SNOW BY EVENING THERE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AS DYNAMIC                
COOLING AND COLDER SURFACE AIR COMBINE TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE              
LOWER LAYERS. SNOW ADVISORY CHANGED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY                  
EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE THAT HEADLINE FOR THIS FORECAST. LATEST               
INDICATIONS STILL LOOKING FOR 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA              
BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MAIN PERIOD OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THIS               
EVENING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.                                                 
ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WITH VERY COLD                 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH CENTER DROPS            
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUED TO TREND TEMPERATURES                  
TOWARD THE COLDER GFS WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED THURSDAY                   
MORNING AS CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.                          
IN THE EXTENDED RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD              
AS SFC HI PRES SHIFTS SEWD INTO MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. THIS SHOULD              
GIVE US A QUICK WARM UP AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN.                  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND A SHORTWAVE TROF AND ITS                 
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSH THRU THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE DAY FRIDAY. SFC            
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODELS             
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AT THIS SO WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS             
FOR SNOW. WL COOL DOWN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER               
WARM PUSH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S QUITE POSSIBLE BY              
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST               
     TUESDAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068-090>093.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-             
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.                       
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST               
     TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOBERT/GRIFFIS                                                                  
</pre> ne