000
FXUS63 KGLD 140446
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
946 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009/ 

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009/ 

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

ONE ITEM TO ADDRESS IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. GIVEN SATURATED/NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER/RECENT SNOWMELT TODAY AND LOW T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AND LATEST RUC/NAM/MOS GUIDANCE VIS FORECASTS CANT
RULE OUT SOME FOG. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME FOG OVER THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WITH
TONIGHTS WEATHER SYSTEM. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
VISIBILITIES BUT FOR NOW IT WOULD SEEM LIKE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE QUICKLY APPROACHING CLOUDINESS
WILL LIMIT AN APPRECIABLE DURATION. 

OTHERWISE...AS TODAYS STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST 
(LEAVING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE TO AS MUCH
AS 3-5 INCHES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE IN THE ADVISORY AREA)
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW CENTER NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE OREGON/NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. TONIGHTS IMPULSE DOES HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THE NOSE OF A 250MB JET
MOVING ACROSS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OR 2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY SOME LIGHT
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WHERE
850-500 MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MAY HAVE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL AS STRATUS (CONFINED TO
THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA) BUT OVERALL MORE SUN THEN PREVIOUS
DAYS AND NOTICEABLY WARMER. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO
MID 30S SOUTH...WARMING SUNDAY INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND MID 40S
SOUTH. FOR MONDAY WILL START THINGS OFF WITH MID 40S NORTH TO MID
50S SOUTH...BASED ON 850 TEMPERATURES AND FULL MIXING THESE
NUMBERS COULD BE UP TO 5F WARMER...WILL WAIT AND SEE. 

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...

TUESDAY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE AREA WELL INTO THE 50S WITH 60S VERY POSSIBLE. FURTHER
NORTH A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH
MID 40S FOR NOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES' PASSAGE WILL DICTATE
HOW LONG THE COLDER AIR LINGERS OR RETREATS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. 

WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST WITH LOW TO MID
40S...FURTHER EAST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH TROUGHS OVER THE EAST COAST AND OFF THE
WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY. 

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
935 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2009

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED SITUATION WITH CIGS IN THE AREA
THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY KGLD UNDER IFR WITH OVC007 WHILE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KMCK. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO HANG IN AT
KGLD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH KMCK IS CURRENTLY CLEAR, LOW IFR CIGS ARE JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP THOSE CLOUDS WEST OF THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT, BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THOSE LOW
CLOUDS FIND THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE KMCK AREA. WINDS AT BOTH SITES
WILL PICK UP GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TO AROUND 10-15KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS..ESPECIALLY
AT KGLD. AT KGLD..CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LOWER CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND 02Z-04Z. AT KMCK..BARRING RETURN OF LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE IN TAF CYCLE.

GJG

&&

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$

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