FXUS04 KWBC 271909
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
309 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 29/0000 UTC THRU SEP 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY 1...

...SRN APLCHNS/MID-ATLC STATES...

AS JEANNE... OR ITS REMNANTS... LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UP THRU
THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RNFL IS EXPECTED TO LIKEWISE SPREAD NEWD FROM
EXTREME NERN GA UP INTO THE MID-ATLC STATES AND ALONG COASTAL
SRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON THE
TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE.. AT LEAST EARLY ON ... AS IT
LIFTS
NWD AND ALSO SEEMS TO DO A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE PCPN OVER
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APLCHNS. HOWEVER... NOT AT ALL
COMFORTABLE WITH THE GFS WITH THE OVERRUNNING PCPN THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE NRN MID-ATLC STATES THAT SPREADS UP ACROSS
CNTRL PA AND INTO SERN NY. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM... HAVE ADJUSTED THE NRN PORTION OF
THE MAX SOUTHWARD.. MORE IN LINE WITH THE NGM. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SRN APLCHNS WHERE UPSLOPE
EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE LIFT. DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL ALSO ENHANCE
DYNAMICS ALOFT SOMEWHAT AS WILL SOME FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLNS...

AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLNS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE EAST... IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MSTR
STREAMING UP INTO THE REGION FROM THE WRN GULF AND CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME MDT TO HVY CONVECTION OVER WRN TX.. THE TX AND
OK PANHANDLES AND UP INTO SWRN KS.  WHILE BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
WERE A BIT HEAVIER TO THE NORTH OVER OK AND SWRN KS... WENT
WITH A MAX OVER W CNTRL TX WHERE THE BEST MSTR IS EXPECTED.

DAY 2...

THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED DUE TO SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET AND CMC
MODELS AS WELL AS BETTER CONTINUITY THAN THE ETA.  THUS
ANTICIPATE THE HEAVIEST AMTS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TO NJ/EXTREME ERN LONG ISLAND/CAPE
COD AREA WHERE AREAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE .25 TO .50
INCH RANGE.

A BROAD TROF WILL BE SLOWLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
PERIOD.  MANUAL QPF LEANED SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE GFS SINCE IT
HAD OVERALL BETTER INITIALIZATION AT 12Z THAN THE ETA.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MT INTO ND THIS PERIOD WILL SPREAD
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

ROBSON/MAUSSER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 502654 498647 493647 485652 478659 469671 466673 465671 
      468664 471647 471642 470638 468632 466631 459633 453636 
      450637 447639 442638 439637 434637 425640 420642 416645 
      409652 404663 399676 396683 393684 390682 385677 381678 
      378677 373682 370688 369691 370708 371720 369729 365735 
      359744 353750 348753 334764 328767 321767 314769 308774 
      304779 300785 299789 297792 294794 282805 279810 280813 
      282817 287820 289822 290826 288832 290837 296838 300836 
      302833 307826 311825 317828 323840 323848 326853 330857 
      335860 340862 342863 346863 353863 360859 369851 374844 
      378836 380832 383829 389820 392816 395810 401797 409773 
      414759 417751 420743 425725 427707 430700 434693 438691 
      442694 444699 447705 442710 440716 440724 448742 448751 
      446762 445770 445777 447782 445790 442799 436810 433817 
      429824 428828 429832 433837 447834 446840 442849 434864 
      431871 428880 426889 424898 426914 427916 431917 434911 
      444887 460851 462845 464840 467838 476825 480818 482812 
      484802 486792 488760 493739 495729 497718 500701 500690 
      501682 502654 
 0.01 450105 452098 450092 448088 444085 438080 435077 434072 
      434064 430060 424052 415047 410038 407028 406013 406001 
      407992 410981 413970 414964 414955 413941 412936 410933 
      406934 402937 397943 393949 370970 361985 357991 352996 
      347998 342000 332001 322002 313000 306995 300991 294987 
      287984 274977 257967 251967 248969 247972 246976 245979 
      243984 245989 248992 247997 247001 250006 262017 272027 
      280038 286044 293050 295053 300055 308061 308064 311066 
      317068 323067 329065 338064 354073 364071 368071 371075 
      375083 379084 382082 386081 390083 391087 391094 392106 
      386112 378119 373126 373130 376129 383124 387119 391116 
      394116 403120 412123 421127 424130 427128 430124 435117 
      440115 447110 450105 
 0.01 422088 423080 421075 418072 415076 412076 407078 404082 
      404086 407088 409091 412096 415098 418096 421091 422088 
 0.01 346113 345106 346096 345092 341089 338083 336075 333076 
      330079 330082 331088 330092 331096 335099 338102 338107 
      340112 346113 346113 
 0.01 273790 272784 269781 259785 252791 249793 247798 246806 
      242813 240822 242828 246827 249824 255817 257815 259812 
      266805 270798 272794 273790 
 0.25 487689 485685 484686 483688 481693 481694 480698 480700 
      478703 478706 478710 477712 479713 481710 482708 483705 
      485702 485701 486696 487694 487690 487689 
 0.25 423679 421676 417673 412675 408678 395699 387714 382717 
      378722 377736 374744 369750 361758 356767 350774 347778 
      343781 337783 331784 327785 322788 321791 320795 322800 
      324804 329810 332818 333824 335835 337846 341849 345850 
      350849 356845 363839 368833 375826 382817 388809 392803 
      396793 400783 407765 414742 423701 424690 423679 
 0.25 406053 404047 400044 390042 386039 383035 378029 380023 
      385013 388005 390998 392991 395979 395975 393975 390978 
      385984 376992 366997 358005 353010 349014 343017 331019 
      326019 322017 314013 297003 290998 284993 279991 273989 
      272998 278017 281023 284026 293033 299039 306043 313050 
      316055 321057 327058 333056 341051 343048 348044 358040 
      389049 393050 397053 402055 406053 
 0.50 420695 419689 415686 409693 404701 398707 390720 383728 
      381730 381737 379743 376749 364763 361770 357775 346789 
      339794 336799 337805 338810 337818 338828 339837 341842 
      345845 348846 353844 362835 374822 383810 388803 392795 
      395789 398781 405764 410749 412742 414732 417715 418708 
      420696 420695 
 0.50 385999 384996 381998 380999 378001 376003 374003 373005 
      370006 370008 370009 372011 373011 376011 377010 379009 
      381006 382005 383002 384001 385999 
 0.50 341027 340026 339024 337024 334023 331023 329024 326025 
      326027 324029 325032 326032 329034 331035 332035 334035 
      335034 338033 340031 340030 341027 
 0.50 332052 330049 327049 324050 322052 324053 327053 330053 
      332052 
 0.50 323039 322031 318026 316022 312017 303013 293008 286002 
      282999 279999 280002 284005 285008 286012 287018 290024 
      298029 306036 314042 319044 323039 
 1.00 412722 408719 402722 391731 386736 383742 381748 377754 
      371763 363775 358783 352796 346804 345810 345813 343818 
      342827 343836 345840 349840 355836 358832 367822 374814 
      381804 388794 394782 399771 404758 407747 411733 412722 
 1.50 410728 408724 406730 402736 400738 396736 393739 386745 
      383752 371771 368777 364781 359792 353802 348814 345824 
      345832 347836 351836 354834 356831 357826 367817 374808 
      382796 388789 390783 394775 398765 402751 404745 406741 
      409735 410728 
 2.00 394762 393759 392759 390760 389761 389765 389769 388773 
      390774 392771 392770 393767 394765 394762 
 2.00 387782 387777 383777 381777 382773 381768 379766 374773 
      376779 371786 361797 357802 354810 352815 347822 347830 
      349833 353832 358819 370810 378798 383792 386786 387782  
 
24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 484174 496188 504192 512191 521202 525207 530206 531195 
      528183 529173 529166 521156 514151 506148 499142 493137 
      490130 484126 475123 472121 472119 475111 476106 476098 
      473093 470089 464089 459093 455094 452092 449088 445084 
      441083 434083 429080 426076 422071 419064 417060 413056 
      395045 375050 365048 354046 351046 352041 357040 361035 
      362031 362026 359021 355017 350015 339017 328017 321017 
      315016 313013 311007 310001 307995 304992 300990 296993 
      294000 295008 294010 291011 283006 280003 277002 272004 
      269007 269013 270017 275021 279023 282027 285031 288042 
      294051 301058 309062 313065 315069 319075 319078 320082 
      318086 313084 310088 307093 307097 307102 310108 315115 
      321121 328130 333139 339147 347153 357157 368164 374163 
      380164 386165 390163 393159 395154 394150 392145 390139 
      390131 393127 397125 403124 409125 416125 419123 422127 
      426129 429127 432123 435122 437124 440128 438130 434136 
      434144 436151 438158 446166 448171 450176 453178 457177 
      460171 464167 467166 470167 484174 
 0.01 446645 444639 441640 435648 429655 422664 411679 399695 
      389709 378722 372727 364733 357739 353744 350748 347752 
      344758 343767 344773 349779 351781 355783 361783 369783 
      378779 387773 398760 406747 414733 424716 431701 438685 
      442676 444667 446655 446645 
 0.01 507229 505221 503215 500211 494211 493216 493217 496219 
      499223 500232 503234 507229 
 0.01 503985 502976 501966 501962 497954 490947 483944 474947 
      469950 466953 459961 454968 448973 444974 440976 437980 
      436984 436988 437992 439996 443003 441016 442024 444030 
      446035 449039 456045 462047 468046 473042 475038 485028 
      495017 502000 503991 503985 
 0.01 437222 432219 426218 419219 410214 402208 395203 389198 
      386194 382191 381191 380198 386206 393213 398216 403220 
      408224 415227 421229 429229 434226 437222 
 0.01 423009 422004 420001 416998 401996 388991 381988 374986 
      370987 366989 364995 363005 365015 369020 374024 380026 
      386028 390029 393027 394020 394015 398014 405015 414021 
      420017 423009 
 0.01 344857 345851 343846 337845 330845 326840 317829 313818 
      308811 305810 300811 295812 293815 295823 302840 306856 
      305870 306875 309878 315880 319878 322875 325870 333867 
      340865 344857 
 0.25 419695 414696 409702 402712 394722 385732 377744 376749 
      375752 376756 382757 387755 391751 394746 402734 407723 
      413713 418704 419695 
 0.25 401110 398097 396083 393079 387077 378081 374083 369083 
      369078 372072 371068 368067 363065 360065 356068 350076 
      347080 343082 337083 333087 333095 332106 334116 338122 
      342126 344128 350130 361125 365124 368124 369125 374128 
      379126 388122 397116 401110 
 0.50 377092 377101 380098 384093 382088 380089 377092 
 0.50 365089 365082 365075 364070 361070 358072 357075 355079 
      352082 349086 345092 343097 342101 342107 347100 352098 
      358096 362093 365089  
 
$$