AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
753 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS                      
MORNING...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS             
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING DOWN              
FROM CANADA WILL PULL A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT              
AND SAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS                
SYSTEMS TRAILING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA                
ON SUNDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS                 
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RETREATS NORTHEAST MONDAY               
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE              
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
WEAK SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT...INDICATED             
BY MSAS AND ALSO BEING PICKED UP BY THE RUC HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME                
LIGHT RA AND SN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. 00Z OKX SOUNDING VERY DRY ABOVE             
775 MB WITH MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.             
NE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO FILTER IN OFF THE                  
OCEAN WITH STRATUS PUSHING FROM EAST TO WEST.                                   
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID                      
ATLANTIC STATES WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT PIVOTS TOWARDS THE LOCAL                 
AREA THIS MORNING.                                                              
RUC/SREF SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST.                    
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS                     
WEST VIRGINIA...OHIO AND WESTERN PA...BUT VERY LITTLE IS                        
REACHING THE GROUND. THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS WITH AN OLD                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH                   
LIFTS NEWD THIS MORNING...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH                       
CAROLINA COAST WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. CANNOT                   
RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER INTO EARLY THIS AFTN WITH                     
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE               
BEING DEPICTED BY THE RUC SO WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS THROUGH EARLY               
AFTN.                                                                           
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE OFFSHORE            
LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDS IN. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WELL.                     
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                               
WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM             
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER OVER            
THE LAST FEW RUNS SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE GRIDS BY KEEPING                
THINGS DRY UNTIL SAT MORNING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH            
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ONLY WEAK WAA EXISTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z                     
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER START TO PRECIP. WARM ADVECTION                 
RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE              
THROUGH SAT EVENING. LEFT CHC POPS SAT NIGHT WITH TROUGHINESS AND               
STRONG VORT MAXES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.                           
ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SUN WITH            
HIGHS LIKELY BEING REACHED IN THE MORNING AS VERY COLD AIR FILTERS              
IN BEHIND IT. GFS AND EC HAVE H85 TEMPS AROUND THE -20 DEGREE MARK              
WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER              
30S DURING THE AFTN. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC UP TO H7               
WITH THE FROPA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS...POSSIBLY              
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...A CLASSIC WINDEX                      
EVENT...BUT WON`T GET TOO EXCITED YET AS NGM (WHICH VERIFIES THE                
BEST WITH THIS) DOESN`T GO OUT FAR ENOUGH YET.                                  
WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FROPA AND WE`LL                    
PROBABLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY (MOSTLY FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...BUT              
COULD SEE A FEW PLACES HIT IT ON SUSTAINED TOO)...BUT WILL JUST                 
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW SINCE IT`S A 5TH PERIOD                
EVENT.                                                                          
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND MAY REACH NORMAL              
LEVELS BRIEFLY SUN BEFORE ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERS IN AND                         
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
NEEDLESS TO SAY A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...               
WITH THE EMPHASIS HERE PUT ON DAYS 6 AND 7. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...               
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NE SUN NIGHT WITH A STRONG PUSH               
OF COLD AIR TO FOLLOW. A STRONG NW FLOW SUN NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY                
DIMINISH ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN                      
MARITIMES AND POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS                   
EASTWARD. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST COMES TUE INTO                     
THU...AS THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF                
THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION...WITH HEIGHT RISES                 
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE                      
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET ALONG THE                       
US/CANADIAN BORDER. IT IS THIS INTERACTION THAT SEEMS TO BE                     
PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.                          
THE 12Z GFS...GLOBAL CANADIAN...AND UKMET ALL POINT TO PHASING OF               
THESE TWO BRANCHES WITH A LESS PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER LOW OVER THE              
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES TUE INTO WED. THIS IS A WARMER               
SOLUTION THAN RECENT DAYS. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE TWO BRANCHES                 
UNPHASED...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER LOW. THIS SCENARIO WAS            
COLDER AND MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX...IF NOT AN ALL SNOW EVENT.            
THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH...IS THAT THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO FOLLOWING SUIT            
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM IN THE EAST. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND            
ECMWF ARE FORMING A SECONDARY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT ARE            
ABOUT 12 HR OFF IN TIMING.  THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER...MORE                       
CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A 984 MB              
SFC LOW  EAST OF CAPE COD AT 00Z THU. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE                
PROGRESSIVE WITH A 1001 MB LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THERE             
IS OBVIOUS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST...BUT BETTER AGREEMENT                
TOWARD A DEEPER...WARMER SYSTEM OVER THE EAST APPEARS EVIDENT.                  
HOWEVER...RATHER THAN WHOLEHEARTEDLY BUYING INTO THESE NEW                      
SCENARIOS....THE GRIDS REPRESENT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO THIS                   
SOLUTION DURING DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD STILL                 
LOOKS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR               
WINTRY WEATHER STILL EXISTS TUE AFT INTO EARLY THU. THERE IS BOUND              
TO BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INVOF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF LONG ISLAND              
CONTINUES TO HOLD IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH HIGH END IFR CIGS                
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL CT...AND LOW END MVFR                
CIGS AT MOST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SOME VERY              
LIGHT PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND...AND             
LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN CT. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP THIS                      
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO HIGHER END MVFR CIGS.             
AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH/WEST...LOWER CIGS               
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND GIVE WAY TO A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BY MIDDAY             
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HANG            
IN UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OUT EAST. VFR BY FRI EVENING.                    
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE COULD SEE SUB VFR                 
CONDITIONS ON SAT WITH PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AND WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH              
MON...ESPECIALLY SUN AND SUN NIGHT WHEN SOME TERMINALS COULD SEE                
WEST WINDS 20-30G40KT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY LATE             
TUE AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT E OF FIRE ISLAND                 
INLET...AS 5 FT SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS...               
LIKELY ALSO CREATING ROUGH CONDITIONS AT THE INLETS. SWELLS SHOULD              
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY...FALLING BELOW 5 FT W OF MORICHES INLET BY             
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TAKING THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY TO SO SO IN              
THE EASTERNMOST OCEAN WATERS.                                                   
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN SAT NIGHT AS FLOW TURNS WESTERLY            
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GALES NOW APPEAR LIKELY ON ALL WATERS             
LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN NIGHT VIA STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A             
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.             
A FEW GUSTS JUST SHY OF STORM FORCE MAY OCCUR ON THE OCEAN.                     
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOW WATER PROBLEMS ON                 
WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NY HARBOR WITH THE LOW TIDE CYCLES SUN            
NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FREEZING SPRAY ON               
THE OCEAN AND SOUND.                                                            
CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE                      
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE            
ON THE OCEAN INTO MON NIGHT.                                                    
SCA CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT            
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.                              
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SAT               
INTO SAT EVENING WITH UP TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED (SOME IN FROZEN                   
FORM). NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS            
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS               
     MORNING FOR ANZ353.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GOODMAN                                                              
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
635 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK            
AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OR             
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER              
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.  A                  
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH              
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON            
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIALLY SOME             
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BLAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW                
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY MORNING.  BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND WIND CHILLS IN            
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...                                                
TODAY...DESPITE A BUBBLE ANTICYCLONE AT THE SFC THIS                            
MORNING...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION            
INHIBITING ANY BONAFIDE CLEARING.  A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER            
NRN NY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER                
OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND NORTH OF THE                     
BERKSHIRES.  THE IR PICTURE WITH H500 HEIGHTS FROM THE RUC13                    
OVERLAYED SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT             
STREAMING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY AND PA.  WE BELIEVE ANOTHER SHORT               
WAVE MAY TAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TRIGGER AND ISOLD SNOW             
SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE PM...WITH PERHAPS                
SOME SCT FLURRIES NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD                 
HILLS.  AGAIN...CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL                            
PREVAIL...EXCEPT NEAR KPOU WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR IN               
THE PM.  NOT TOO MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS EXPECTED DESPITE                
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AT H850 BTWN 18Z AND 00Z.  WE WENT A              
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFSMOS MAX TEMPS.  GENERALLY 20S TO L30S            
TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...MID 30S OVER THE CAPITAL             
REGION...AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF ALY.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY/...                                          
TONIGHT...TRANQUIL WEATHER PERSISTS FOR A BRIEF SPELL LONGER WITH TH            
WEAK SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  MID LEVEL HEIGHTS            
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH CLIPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE/MID             
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS                 
FEATURE WILL BE THE PRELIMINARY PLAYER FOR A ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT              
SNOW FOR THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN TO THE SOUTH             
OF ALY INITIALLY.  THE DISTURBANCE TO KICK IN AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL              
BE THE PV ANOMALY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG SAT MORNING.                
THE LATEST GFS40 DEPICTING POTENTIAL TEMP ON THE 1.5 PVU SFC SHOWS              
THIS ANOMALY DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO WI/MI BY 00Z SUN.                           
OVERALL...LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FRI NIGHT WITH SKIES POSSIBLY                
CLEARING BRIEFLY WITH A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE MID            
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INCREASE WITH THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN                     
ADVANCING N/NE. WE WENT A SHADE WARMER THAN THE COOLEST GFSMOS                  
VALUES HERE.                                                                    
SATURDAY...CLIPPER MOVES NORTH OF LAKE HURON DURING THE PM WITH OVER            
RUNNING PCPN IMPACTING THE FCST AREA.  A QUICK QG ANALYSIS SHOWS THE            
DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER PA             
AND MD COUPLED WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE H850-500            
LAYER WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH QG OMEGA FOR A BURST OF PCPN.  RIGHT                  
NOW...TOTAL QPF PRIOR TO 00Z SUN LOOKS TO BE IN THE TENTH TO QUARTER            
INCH CATEGORY.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WARM ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO              
MIX WITH RAIN FROM ALY SOUTH DOWN THE MID HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.                  
HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND THE INTENSITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD              
INCREASE ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN FOR SNOW OVER THE HILLS AND             
MTNS...AND EVEN OVER THE VALLEYS LATE IN THE DAY.  WE ARE EXPECTING             
1-3" OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO 4" OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.  WE RAISED POPS            
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES...AND PHRASED IT AS LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO                   
NOONTIME.                                                                       
SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOWFALL MAY LINGER THE LONGEST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK            
RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE                  
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MEANWHILE...THE CLIPPER            
LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE POTENT H500 CLOSED LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO.               
THE PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF IT              
WITH A FULL BLOWN LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVING. SUB 500 DECAMETER                   
H1000-500 THICKNESSES ENCROACH WRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS AN ARCTIC              
FRONT MARCHES TOWARD ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.                                
SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF SLIDES EAST FROM THE             
NRN GREAT LAKES REGION.  ARCTIC FRONT TRANSVERSES REGION IN THE                 
12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY                
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH FRONT              
SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY SNOW SQUALLS              
TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  SOME OF THESE INTENSE SQUALLS MAY SNEAK               
DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND HIT THE CAPITAL REGION WITH SNOW               
RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR.  WE WOULDN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE                 
RUMBLES OF THUNDER EITHER WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG                 
DYNAMICS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT BEFORE NOONTIME...WITH -20C AIR            
AT 850 MB MOVING OVER THE REGION BY THE EARLY TO MID PM. TEMPS WILL             
FALL THROUGH THE TWENTIES AND TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE POST                 
FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH 925 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KTS                   
POSSIBLE.  GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE                  
FRONT.  WE COULD SEE WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AND                    
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 45 MPH.  IT COULD BE A BORDERLINE ADVISORY EVENT             
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NRN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES                  
NORTHWARD.  FOR NOW...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN             
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  TEMPS WILL FALL DURING THE DAY...AND            
WIND CHILLS FROM 10 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO WILL BE COMMON. SOME LAKE            
EFFECT SNOW MAY MATERIALIZE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH THE SFC-H700             
FLOW SHIFTING NW QUICKLY THIS WILL LIKELY BE MULTIBANDS...IMPACTING             
CNTRL NY MORE THAN OUR AREA. NONETHELESS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW               
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE WRN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY PM.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
ARCTIC SURGE OF COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL              
BE SHORT LIVED. CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION                 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAPID MID LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY             
AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OVERUNNING                 
PATTERN WILL SET UP IN THIS WARM ADVECTION WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF                
SNOW FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. THE OVERUNNING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO            
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A DEVELOPIONG SURFACE LOW                    
FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE OFF THE MID                
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF                  
MAINLY SNOW HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD                 
ENDING 12Z SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU                
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KGFL THIS            
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS AT ALL THREE SITES BETWEEN 4000             
AND 5000 FEET...WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP LATER                 
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LEAVING MAINLY MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. SURFACE             
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.                                               
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SAT...MVFR/IFR...-SN LIKELY.                                                    
SUN...MVFR/VFR...SCT -SHSN.                                                     
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
TUE...MVFR/VFR...CHC -SHSN.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND IN               
THE HOUSATONIC BASIN THIS MORNING FROM THE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF             
FROM YESTERDAY.                                                                 
A FEW POINTS ON THE HOUSATONIC REMAIN A FEW INCHES TO HALF A                    
FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AS WELL AS THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA. THESE            
POINTS SHOULD FALL BELOW THEIR CRESTS LATER TODAY.  SEE INDIVIDUAL              
FLW/S AND FLS/S FOR MORE DETAILS.                                               
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE DUE TO SEASONABLY COLD                 
WEATHER...AND MAINLY LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN PTYPE             
WILL BE SNOW SAT INTO SUN.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TAW                                                                  
NEAR TERM...TAW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TAW                                                                
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...GJM                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...TAW/KL                                                              
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
335 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE             
LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. ALL OF THE ACTION             
IN TERMS OF WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN                
STREAM. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ARE SEEN EXITING             
THE NORTHEAST AND ALSO PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL                 
PLAINS. FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WE SEE THE FIRST                 
SIGNS OF A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL EVOLVE AND AMPLIFY OVER              
THE NEXT 24 HOURS USHERING A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC BLAST INTO THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERN               
STREAM IS MUCH LESS ACTIVE AT THIS TIME WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW FROM               
NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST.                                  
AT THE SURFACE...1019MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE                 
FORECAST AREA. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A               
BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS SEEN WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THESE                
WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH.                                                         
VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE              
60S AND LOWER 70S REGIONWIDE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN TONIGHT WITH                
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE           
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT WITH UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S MORE            
COMMON.                                                                         
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF            
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK              
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY                 
CROSS DURING EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER WITH A VERY MOISTURE STARVED               
ENVIRONMENT...THE PASSAGE WILL REALLY ONLY BE DISTINGUISHED BY A                
WIND SHIFT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO            
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL THEN QUICKLY                
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                     
JUST A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT                     
RESULTING IN ANOTHER VERY NICE FEBRUARY DAY (ALTHOUGH POTENTIALLY A             
BIT BREEZY) ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH                
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST AS                
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT MOVES              
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPS            
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER             
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO                
INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI                         
VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS              
IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION              
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING FROM WEST TO EAST             
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH                
THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FOR             
THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION....                                                                   
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH            
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. GFS RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTION                 
INDICATING SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.               
WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSION DROPPING TO NEAR 2-3 DEGREES AND NEAR CALM            
WINDS...SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY ARE            
POSSIBLE. WENT WITH MVFR TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG FOR VLD AND TLH.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY                        
SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS             
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING SATURDAY EVENING OR                 
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THE             
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND                    
NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF NEAR CAUTION CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY             
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS...AND             
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CAUTION OR EVEN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS                 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF             
THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT                 
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A BIT OF ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT RH VALUES UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE              
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL DROP BAY...FRANKLIN...AND GULF               
COUNTIES FROM THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS REASON. WILL LEAVE UP               
THE WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH CRITICAL DURATIONS              
OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO STILL REACH. WILL LEAVE              
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH UP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN             
FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND ZONES FOR NOW. WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A                  
WARNING AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE            
WILL RIDE NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS                 
FRONT DRIER AIR WILL CERTAINLY INVADE FROM THE NORTH WITH FIRE WX               
CONCERNS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  38  74  42  70  33 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  46  71  45  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       38  70  42  69  36 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       37  71  40  68  33 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     39  73  41  69  35 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   39  75  44  71  34 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...HOLMES...                 
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                  
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                         
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...                       
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...                
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                  
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BLOCK/WOODRUM                                                        
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA                                                 
LONG TERM...BARRY                                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
950 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE             
LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. ALL OF THE ACTION             
IN TERMS OF WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AT THIS              
TIME. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ARE SEEN MOVING                
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND ALSO EJECTING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN AND               
CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WE SEE THE               
FIRST SIGNS OF A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL EVOLVE AND AMPLIFY             
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS USHERING A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC BLAST INTO THE             
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERN               
STREAM IS MUCH LESS ACTIVE AT THIS TIME WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW FROM               
NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST.                                  
AT THE SURFACE...1019MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE                 
FORECAST AREA AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.            
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL               
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A BAND OF CLOUDS               
AND SHOWERS IS SEEN WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THESE WILL STAY TO OUR              
SOUTH WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVERHEAD PERSISTING INTO            
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM RAPIDLY FROM LOWS AROUND SUNRISE IN              
THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WILL SEE THESE TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE              
TOWARD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. VERY LIKELY THAT            
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL REACH 70F.                         
LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED              
OVER THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT             
WITH UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S MORE COMMON.                                       
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF            
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK              
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS                  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER WITH A VERY                
MOISTURE STARVED ENVIRONMENT...THE PASSAGE WILL REALLY ONLY BE                  
DISTINGUISHED BY A WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL              
THEN QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING OUR               
WEATHER TRANQUIL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES MARRED ONLY BY A FEW                  
THIN CIRRUS AND LIGHT WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS             
THIS MORNING WITH SEAS RANGING FROM AROUND 1 FOOT NEAR THE COAST TO             
AROUND 3 FEET AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME             
MORE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE             
HIGH NEARLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH THE HIGH THEN PUSHING OFF TO THE            
EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES              
FROM THE NORTHWEST...FLOW SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER                 
AROUND TO THE WEST WITH TIME. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER                    
SATURDAY...WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MAY SEE A              
PERIOD OF NEAR CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO              
EARLY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS...AND THEN                   
ANOTHER ROUND OF CAUTION CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY                     
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE UP FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE               
AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENDED DURATIONS OF RELATIVE             
HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH FAIRLY             
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS               
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY OVER THESE                 
AREAS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  69  43  71  40  67 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  67  50  70  43  68 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       66  41  67  41  66 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       66  39  68  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     67  43  70  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   70  44  73  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/           
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                   
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...                       
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...                
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                  
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BLOCK                                                                
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
325 PM EST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE                
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MOST OF THE COUNTRY CHARACTERIZED BY LONG             
WAVE TROUGHING WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES SEEN                     
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. THE FIRST IS MOVING ACROSS                
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND THROUGH THE CENTRAL              
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GOMEX AND A THIRD MOVING ASHORE              
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.                                                   
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST               
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GOMEX.             
1020MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED EAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FROM             
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND IS NOW IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE AREA.               
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH              
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY TO GADSDEN COUNTY AND INTO                  
SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE...CLOUDS HAVE                
FILLED IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS            
THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE SHOWERS              
ARE RESULTING FROM DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310 K                 
SURFACES TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD FRONT (PER GFS/NAM/RUC ANALYSIS).              
THIS LIFT IS BEGINNING TO BE AIDED BY SYNOPTIC DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR              
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ALSO                
DEVELOPING DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE                  
REGION OF A 150 KNOT UPPER JET FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO             
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DYNAMICS FOR LIFT MAXIMIZE DURING THE              
EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THE MOST FAVORABLE                
UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS                  
DURING THIS TIME SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE IN THE VICINITY OF                    
APALACHICOLA TO TALLAHASSEE AND VALDOSTA. THE SHOWERS MAY EVEN                  
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AT TIMES ACROSS TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE               
COUNTIES WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. NORTH AND              
WEST OF THIS LINE THE CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY THIN AND REMAIN                     
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA.             
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WITH            
THE UPPER JET ALSO PUSHING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ENDING THE                 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL               
ALSO HELP PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH TAKING ANY LINGERING             
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL TAPER THE CHANCE              
TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND               
RAPIDLY DOWN TO A SLIGHT RISK AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ENDING            
BY AROUND 2 AM EST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE AREA FROM DIXIE              
TO LAFAYETTE COUNTIES WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY                
HOLD ON INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE                
NORTH AND WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY CLOUDS            
CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.            
A COOL NIGHT IN STORE FOR MOST WITH LOW TEMPS FROM THE MIDDLE TO                
UPPER 30S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND                  
OVER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN FL BIG BEND TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER               
WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S MORE COMMON.                                          
WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT...A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD OF FAIR             
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BEGIN AND LINGER THROUGH THE UPCOMING               
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA                
FRIDAY MORNING AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. ALOFT WE WILL             
SEE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HELPING TO KEEP             
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES FAR TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY TO               
PARTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT                
WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON                
FRIDAY AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SATURDAY. LOW                       
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND AND            
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE COAST...AND THEN A FEW DEGREES             
COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S MORE COMMON AWAY            
FROM THE COAST.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST NORTHWEST            
OR ZONAL FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN...A THROUGH             
DIGS AND SHARPENS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY WITH AXIS               
SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE U.S. WEDNESDAY. SURFACE             
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE                      
RE-ENFORCED BY A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SPILL OUT             
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF            
THE U.S. MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND ENTER THE CWA LATE                
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFSX NOW SHOWS A MORE PROMISING            
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS FRONT. ALTHOUGH...ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A                 
SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEEP LAYER                  
MOISTURE AND A SWATH OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA                   
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOKS SUSPICIOUS. WILL INCREASE              
POPS FROM SLIGHT TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM CLIMO.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION....                                                                   
THE FRONT HAS NOW STALLED OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA.             
A LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THE                
NWRN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL IMPACT TLH AND VLD FOR THE FIRST             
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 7 KFT.                
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT              
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE UPCOMING                
WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE                   
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY              
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT WITH NORTHEAST                
FLOW APPROACHING CAUTION LEVELS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE               
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH FLOW COMING AROUND TO THE                     
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WE ARE LOOKING FOR THE MARGINAL 4-HR DURATION OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT            
ACROSS OUR FL ZONES FOR FRI. BECAUSE IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL, WILL              
JUST ISSUE A WATCH FOR NOW AND LEAVE THE WARNING DECISION TO THE MID            
SHIFT. A RED FLAG EVENT LOOKS MORE LIKELY ON SAT.                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  38  68  42  71  39 /  10   0  10   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  43  66  44  69  44 /  05   0  10   0   0                           
DOTHAN       38  66  40  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       35  67  39  68  38 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     39  69  41  69  39 /  30   0  10   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   44  70  44  72  39 /  60  10  10   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:               
     CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...                        
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WOOL                                                         
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
LONG TERM...BARRY                                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1005 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE                
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE COUNTRY                      
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING. SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVE                 
FEATURES ARE SEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. THE FIRST             
IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND                 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A THIRD MOVING ASHORE               
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.                                                   
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE                
FORECAST AREAS AND NOW LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND OUT             
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GOMEX. IN THE FRONTS WAKE...1020MB HIGH PRESSURE             
IS MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
CURRENTLY LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF            
THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE                
FRONT. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WILL LIKELY SEE THE FRONT BUCKLE BACK              
TO THE NORTH A BIT AS A WEAK WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS              
WAVE WILL HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES             
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST              
THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE                
BOUNDARY ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH             
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND APALACHICOLA TO VALDOSTA DURING THE              
LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ALL THAT MUCH                  
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME...BUT POTENTIALLY ENOUGH TO                  
IMPACT SOME OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AT THE VERY LEAST WILL BE LOOKING AT            
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THESE AREAS AND PARTLY CLOUDY                   
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE              
30-50% RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH            
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE                   
EVOLUTION OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LATEST 09Z SREF ENSEMBLE                
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN TO THE                
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND PERRY TO JACKSONVILLE. THIS WOULD                   
INCLUDE PORTION OF TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE...AND DIXIE COUNTIES. WILL                
SIMPLY MONITOR FOR THE TIME BEING AND MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS               
WITH THE UPCOMING AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.                                   
AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST OVERHEAD DURING THE                
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT...AND ANY                      
ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FORCED BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND            
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FL PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TERMINALS.              
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE CLOUD COVER WE SEE OUT OVER THE             
GULF. WE HAVE NO OBS OUT THERE THAT GIVE US AN INDICATION OF CLOUD              
BASES. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT ANY CEILINGS              
WOULD BE VFR AT ABOUT 5 KFT, AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE              
AT TLH AND VLD. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST INDICATES SCATTERED CLOUDS AT             
THIS LEVEL TODAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA INTO FRIDAY WITH             
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY. WEAK FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE                
NORTH A BIT DURING TODAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST                
WATERS. DO EXPECT A LEAST SCT SHOWERS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF                      
APALACHICOLA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TONIGHT OR DURING THE              
EARLY MORNING ON FRIDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
STILL EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE TO               
REACH 35 PERCENT RH VALUES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...              
HOWEVER CRITICAL DURATIONS STILL APPEAR UNLIKELY.                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  66  40  69  46  70 /  10  10  10   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  63  47  67  52  69 /  10  10   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       62  40  67  45  67 /  10  10  10   0   0                           
ALBANY       62  37  66  43  67 /  10  10  10   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     66  42  69  45  69 /  15  10  10   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   67  45  70  48  72 /  50  40  10   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...WOOL                                                                 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1239 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WK WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTN WITH                
DRIER AIR MOVG IN BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME VFR                     
CONDITIONS AT FWA THIS AFTN/EVE. SBN A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE                   
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD GO VFR FOR A SHORT PD LATE THIS                  
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE, BEFORE SNOW MOVES IN AGAIN CAUSING CIGS/VSBYS              
TO LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS A WK CDFNT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW                
LEVELS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS A RN/SN MIX AT FWA AND              
WITH NAM CONTG TO INDICATE LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS AREA...              
FCST CIGS/VSBYS ONLY LOWERING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT                  
FOR MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH INCRSG                  
W-SW WIND FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE UPR GRTLKS AND A                
STRONG ARCTIC CDFNT MOVES INTO THE MS VALLEY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WAS MOVG NE AT 25KT ACROSS               
NE 1/2 OF CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SOME CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS HAS                
DEVELOPED OVER NW IN/NE IL AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS TRYING TO                 
MOVE INTO THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND LACK OF ECHOES/PRECIP                     
REPORTS UPSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN AND                  
GONE WITH AN OPTIMISTIC PARTLY SUNNY FCST ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF              
THE CWA. OTRWS, NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS GRIDS ATTM.                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008/                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING IN ZFP AND ALSO TO                      
INCREASE POPS ACROSS NW OH AND PORTIONS OF NE INDIANA. WK WARM                  
FRONT WAS MOVG NE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN AREA               
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NRN INDIANA/SRN MI AND PORTIONS OF NW OH.                  
THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY 18Z WITH                  
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RN/SN LINGERING THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN               
SATURATED AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAVORING NAM/RUC IN SHORT TERM WITH SOME                     
CHANGES TO GOING FCST...THOUGH ONLY TWO RELATIVELY MINOR EVENTS OF              
CONCERN IN SHORT TERM. FIRST IS WEAK 8H-7H SPEED MAX ACRS CNTRL IL              
INTO NWRN IN DRIVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS PRIMRLY NRN CWA THIS AM.              
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY AM HIGH PROB/LOW QPF                
EVENT PER UPSTREAM METAR/KLOT REF DATA. LULL IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE               
WITH ONLY SMALL CHC LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MOST OF DAY WITH                
BL TEMPS WARMING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTIAL MELT. CYCLONIC              
8H FLOW EMBEDDED IN BROAD UL TROF AND AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD                
KEEP INSOLATION AT MINIMUM AND HAVE SQUELCHED HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE              
OR TWO. FOR TONIGHT SFC LOW PRESSURE OVR DAKOTAS INTO NE BECOMES A              
REENERGIZED AS STRONG BC SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO NRN PLAINS BY                     
DAYBREAK SAT. THIS LEAD WAVE TO THE ARCTIC INTRUSION IS ASSOCIATED              
WITH NEAR 60-70M MIDTROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS AND I285K UPGLIDE                 
WITH MODEST 2-2.5G/KG MOISTURE TAP THROUGHOUT THE CWA. CPD FALL TO              
NEAR 0 BY 03 UTC NWRN CWA AND NRN CWA APPEARS TO SATURATE BEST AND              
HIT THIS AREA AOA MET POPS FOR AGAIN A HIGH PROB EVENT/RELATIVELY               
LOW QPF EVENT. GOOD DGZ MOISTURE AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR/HOWEVER                  
LAST 2KFT OF FALL INITIALLY AOA 1-2C WETBULB TEMPS A CONCERN FOR                
AN INITIAL MIX/HOWEVER DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD                     
QUICKLY OVERCOME AND ANY RASN MIX SHOULD BE BRIEF/NEGLIGIBLE.                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ARCTIC INTRUSION HIGHLIGHTS THIS PD W/EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS NOTED              
OVR THE INTERIOR OF AK AND THE CANADIAN YUKON W/MAYO REPORTING AN               
AMAZING -58 DEGREES. VAPOR SHOWS ROBUST SW TROUGH DIGGING SEWD                  
THROUGH NRN BC AND TAPPING INTO A PORTION OF THIS AIRMASS.                      
00Z SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/PREV RUNS INDICATING BC TROUGH                
WILL QUICKLY DROP SEWD AND AMPLIFY W/WHAT MAY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF             
THE SEASON YET COME SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM AROUND -25C. TALK              
HERE THIS MORNING IS W/FACT THAT SUNDAYS HIGHS ARE LIKELY A FALLACY             
W/NON-DIURNAL FALL MORE LIKELY. WILL EDGE LOWER WHILE MAINTAINING               
COLLABORATION BUT NONE THE LESS FRIGID THE KEY WORD. BIG BLOW                   
FOLLOWING FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT W/INTENSE CAA AND STG MOMENTUM XFER              
ESP W/UNIDIRECTIONAL LL WINDS. SHLD SEE SOME GUSTS AOA 50 MPH.                  
W/THAT AND SCANT MSTR WILL SCALE BACK LIMITED LK EFFECT. NO DOUBT               
SHEARED BL FLW AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC MSTR INPUT WILL GROSSLY LIMIT               
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YET RETAIN MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR XPCD LIGHT BUT             
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES W/FAVORED NEEDLE ICE CRYSTALS              
AS DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SITTING ON THE GROUND.                                 
BEYOND THAT...WILL STICK W/ECMWF SOLUTION AND ITS HANDLING OF NXT               
SIG UPSTREAM SW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. GFS CONTINUITY             
QUITE POOR AND QUITE A DEPARTURE FM PRIOR RUNS MON-TUE NXT WEEK.                
SUFFICE IT TO SAY...DOUBT ARCTIC RIDGE WILL DISLODGE AS RAPIDLY AS              
EITHER THE GFS/OR NAM/WRF INDICATE MONDAY AND LIKELY AN INDICATION              
OF BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE AND TOO AMPLIFIED. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND             
SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AS THIS POINT              
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY W/SUCH HIGHLY VARIABLE MED RANGE SOLUTIONS.                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                               
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1148 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WAS MOVG NE AT 25KT ACROSS               
NE 1/2 OF CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SOME CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS HAS                
DEVELOPED OVER NW IN/NE IL AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS TRYING TO                 
MOVE INTO THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND LACK OF ECHOES/PRECIP                     
REPORTS UPSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTN AND                  
GONE WITH AN OPTIMISTIC PARTLY SUNNY FCST ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF              
THE CWA. OTRWS, NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS GRIDS ATTM.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING IN ZFP AND ALSO TO                      
INCREASE POPS ACROSS NW OH AND PORTIONS OF NE INDIANA. WK WARM                  
FRONT WAS MOVG NE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN AREA               
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NRN INDIANA/SRN MI AND PORTIONS OF NW OH.                  
THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY 18Z WITH                  
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RN/SN LINGERING THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN               
SATURATED AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAVORING NAM/RUC IN SHORT TERM WITH SOME                     
CHANGES TO GOING FCST...THOUGH ONLY TWO RELATIVELY MINOR EVENTS OF              
CONCERN IN SHORT TERM. FIRST IS WEAK 8H-7H SPEED MAX ACRS CNTRL IL              
INTO NWRN IN DRIVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS PRIMRLY NRN CWA THIS AM.              
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY AM HIGH PROB/LOW QPF                
EVENT PER UPSTREAM METAR/KLOT REF DATA. LULL IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE               
WITH ONLY SMALL CHC LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MOST OF DAY WITH                
BL TEMPS WARMING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTIAL MELT. CYCLONIC              
8H FLOW EMBEDDED IN BROAD UL TROF AND AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD                
KEEP INSOLATION AT MINIMUM AND HAVE SQUELCHED HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE              
OR TWO. FOR TONIGHT SFC LOW PRESSURE OVR DAKOTAS INTO NE BECOMES A              
REENERGIZED AS STRONG BC SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO NRN PLAINS BY                     
DAYBREAK SAT. THIS LEAD WAVE TO THE ARCTIC INTRUSION IS ASSOCIATED              
WITH NEAR 60-70M MIDTROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS AND I285K UPGLIDE                 
WITH MODEST 2-2.5G/KG MOISTURE TAP THROUGHOUT THE CWA. CPD FALL TO              
NEAR 0 BY 03 UTC NWRN CWA AND NRN CWA APPEARS TO SATURATE BEST AND              
HIT THIS AREA AOA MET POPS FOR AGAIN A HIGH PROB EVENT/RELATIVELY               
LOW QPF EVENT. GOOD DGZ MOISTURE AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR/HOWEVER                  
LAST 2KFT OF FALL INITIALLY AOA 1-2C WETBULB TEMPS A CONCERN FOR                
AN INITIAL MIX/HOWEVER DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD                     
QUICKLY OVERCOME AND ANY RASN MIX SHOULD BE BRIEF/NEGLIGIBLE.                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ARCTIC INTRUSION HIGHLIGHTS THIS PD W/EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS NOTED              
OVR THE INTERIOR OF AK AND THE CANADIAN YUKON W/MAYO REPORTING AN               
AMAZING -58 DEGREES. VAPOR SHOWS ROBUST SW TROUGH DIGGING SEWD                  
THROUGH NRN BC AND TAPPING INTO A PORTION OF THIS AIRMASS.                      
00Z SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/PREV RUNS INDICATING BC TROUGH                
WILL QUICKLY DROP SEWD AND AMPLIFY W/WHAT MAY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF             
THE SEASON YET COME SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM AROUND -25C. TALK              
HERE THIS MORNING IS W/FACT THAT SUNDAYS HIGHS ARE LIKELY A FALLACY             
W/NON-DIURNAL FALL MORE LIKELY. WILL EDGE LOWER WHILE MAINTAINING               
COLLABORATION BUT NONE THE LESS FRIGID THE KEY WORD. BIG BLOW                   
FOLLOWING FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT W/INTENSE CAA AND STG MOMENTUM XFER              
ESP W/UNIDIRECTIONAL LL WINDS. SHLD SEE SOME GUSTS AOA 50 MPH.                  
W/THAT AND SCANT MSTR WILL SCALE BACK LIMITED LK EFFECT. NO DOUBT               
SHEARED BL FLW AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC MSTR INPUT WILL GROSSLY LIMIT               
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YET RETAIN MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR XPCD LIGHT BUT             
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES W/FAVORED NEEDLE ICE CRYSTALS              
AS DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SITTING ON THE GROUND.                                 
BEYOND THAT...WILL STICK W/ECMWF SOLUTION AND ITS HANDLING OF NXT               
SIG UPSTREAM SW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. GFS CONTINUITY             
QUITE POOR AND QUITE A DEPARTURE FM PRIOR RUNS MON-TUE NXT WEEK.                
SUFFICE IT TO SAY...DOUBT ARCTIC RIDGE WILL DISLODGE AS RAPIDLY AS              
EITHER THE GFS/OR NAM/WRF INDICATE MONDAY AND LIKELY AN INDICATION              
OF BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE AND TOO AMPLIFIED. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND             
SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AS THIS POINT              
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY W/SUCH HIGHLY VARIABLE MED RANGE SOLUTIONS.                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS UPSTREAM OF KSBN               
HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING AND ALLOWED FOR TEMPO PD OF IFR CONDITIONS                 
09-13 UTC. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER LWRG AS KLOT                
RADAR CONTS TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY RETURNS...HOWEVER             
OVERALL TREND WILL NOT BE FOR SIG SNOW EVENT AS MODELS/PROFILER DATA            
INDICATING SHORTWAVE CENTRAL IL 850-700MB SHORTWAVE DRIVING EVENT               
RATHER WEAK AND ON THE WANE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.                 
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS WITH PD OF RESTRICTED/MVFR VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK            
ANTICIATED AT KFWA IN LIGHT FOG/FLURRIES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
910 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING IN ZFP AND ALSO TO                      
INCREASE POPS ACROSS NW OH AND PORTIONS OF NE INDIANA. WK WARM                  
FRONT WAS MOVG NE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN AREA               
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NRN INDIANA/SRN MI AND PORTIONS OF NW OH.                  
THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY 18Z WITH                  
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RN/SN LINGERING THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN               
SATURATED AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAVORING NAM/RUC IN SHORT TERM WITH SOME                     
CHANGES TO GOING FCST...THOUGH ONLY TWO RELATIVELY MINOR EVENTS OF              
CONCERN IN SHORT TERM. FIRST IS WEAK 8H-7H SPEED MAX ACRS CNTRL IL              
INTO NWRN IN DRIVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS PRIMRLY NRN CWA THIS AM.              
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY AM HIGH PROB/LOW QPF                
EVENT PER UPSTREAM METAR/KLOT REF DATA. LULL IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE               
WITH ONLY SMALL CHC LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MOST OF DAY WITH                
BL TEMPS WARMING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTIAL MELT. CYCLONIC              
8H FLOW EMBEDDED IN BROAD UL TROF AND AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD                
KEEP INSOLATION AT MINIMUM AND HAVE SQUELCHED HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE              
OR TWO. FOR TONIGHT SFC LOW PRESSURE OVR DAKOTAS INTO NE BECOMES A              
REENERGIZED AS STRONG BC SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO NRN PLAINS BY                     
DAYBREAK SAT. THIS LEAD WAVE TO THE ARCTIC INTRUSION IS ASSOCIATED              
WITH NEAR 60-70M MIDTROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS AND I285K UPGLIDE                 
WITH MODEST 2-2.5G/KG MOISTURE TAP THROUGHOUT THE CWA. CPD FALL TO              
NEAR 0 BY 03 UTC NWRN CWA AND NRN CWA APPEARS TO SATURATE BEST AND              
HIT THIS AREA AOA MET POPS FOR AGAIN A HIGH PROB EVENT/RELATIVELY               
LOW QPF EVENT. GOOD DGZ MOISTURE AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR/HOWEVER                  
LAST 2KFT OF FALL INITIALLY AOA 1-2C WETBULB TEMPS A CONCERN FOR                
AN INITIAL MIX/HOWEVER DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD                     
QUICKLY OVERCOME AND ANY RASN MIX SHOULD BE BRIEF/NEGLIGIBLE.                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ARCTIC INTRUSION HIGHLIGHTS THIS PD W/EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS NOTED              
OVR THE INTERIOR OF AK AND THE CANADIAN YUKON W/MAYO REPORTING AN               
AMAZING -58 DEGREES. VAPOR SHOWS ROBUST SW TROUGH DIGGING SEWD                  
THROUGH NRN BC AND TAPPING INTO A PORTION OF THIS AIRMASS.                      
00Z SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/PREV RUNS INDICATING BC TROUGH                
WILL QUICKLY DROP SEWD AND AMPLIFY W/WHAT MAY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF             
THE SEASON YET COME SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM AROUND -25C. TALK              
HERE THIS MORNING IS W/FACT THAT SUNDAYS HIGHS ARE LIKELY A FALLACY             
W/NON-DIURNAL FALL MORE LIKELY. WILL EDGE LOWER WHILE MAINTAINING               
COLLABORATION BUT NONE THE LESS FRIGID THE KEY WORD. BIG BLOW                   
FOLLOWING FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT W/INTENSE CAA AND STG MOMENTUM XFER              
ESP W/UNIDIRECTIONAL LL WINDS. SHLD SEE SOME GUSTS AOA 50 MPH.                  
W/THAT AND SCANT MSTR WILL SCALE BACK LIMITED LK EFFECT. NO DOUBT               
SHEARED BL FLW AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC MSTR INPUT WILL GROSSLY LIMIT               
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YET RETAIN MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR XPCD LIGHT BUT             
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES W/FAVORED NEEDLE ICE CRYSTALS              
AS DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SITTING ON THE GROUND.                                 
BEYOND THAT...WILL STICK W/ECMWF SOLUTION AND ITS HANDLING OF NXT               
SIG UPSTREAM SW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. GFS CONTINUITY             
QUITE POOR AND QUITE A DEPARTURE FM PRIOR RUNS MON-TUE NXT WEEK.                
SUFFICE IT TO SAY...DOUBT ARCTIC RIDGE WILL DISLODGE AS RAPIDLY AS              
EITHER THE GFS/OR NAM/WRF INDICATE MONDAY AND LIKELY AN INDICATION              
OF BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE AND TOO AMPLIFIED. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND             
SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AS THIS POINT              
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY W/SUCH HIGHLY VARIABLE MED RANGE SOLUTIONS.                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS UPSTREAM OF KSBN               
HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING AND ALLOWED FOR TEMPO PD OF IFR CONDITIONS                 
09-13 UTC. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER LWRG AS KLOT                
RADAR CONTS TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY RETURNS...HOWEVER             
OVERALL TREND WILL NOT BE FOR SIG SNOW EVENT AS MODELS/PROFILER DATA            
INDICATING SHORTWAVE CENTRAL IL 850-700MB SHORTWAVE DRIVING EVENT               
RATHER WEAK AND ON THE WANE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.                 
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS WITH PD OF RESTRICTED/MVFR VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK            
ANTICIATED AT KFWA IN LIGHT FOG/FLURRIES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
505 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAVORING NAM/RUC IN SHORT TERM WITH SOME                     
CHANGES TO GOING FCST...THOUGH ONLY TWO RELATIVELY MINOR EVENTS OF              
CONCERN IN SHORT TERM. FIRST IS WEAK 8H-7H SPEED MAX ACRS CNTRL IL              
INTO NWRN IN DRIVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS PRIMRLY NRN CWA THIS AM.              
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY AM HIGH PROB/LOW QPF                
EVENT PER UPSTREAM METAR/KLOT REF DATA. LULL IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE               
WITH ONLY SMALL CHC LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MOST OF DAY WITH                
BL TEMPS WARMING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTIAL MELT. CYCLONIC              
8H FLOW EMBEDDED IN BROAD UL TROF AND AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD                
KEEP INSOLATION AT MINIMUM AND HAVE SQUELCHED HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE              
OR TWO. FOR TONIGHT SFC LOW PRESSURE OVR DAKOTAS INTO NE BECOMES A              
REENERGIZED AS STRONG BC SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO NRN PLAINS BY                     
DAYBREAK SAT. THIS LEAD WAVE TO THE ARCTIC INTRUSION IS ASSOCIATED              
WITH NEAR 60-70M MIDTROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS AND I285K UPGLIDE                 
WITH MODEST 2-2.5G/KG MOISTURE TAP THROUGHOUT THE CWA. CPD FALL TO              
NEAR 0 BY 03 UTC NWRN CWA AND NRN CWA APPEARS TO SATURATE BEST AND              
HIT THIS AREA AOA MET POPS FOR AGAIN A HIGH PROB EVENT/RELATIVELY               
LOW QPF EVENT. GOOD DGZ MOISTURE AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR/HOWEVER                  
LAST 2KFT OF FALL INITIALLY AOA 1-2C WETBULB TEMPS A CONCERN FOR                
AN INITIAL MIX/HOWEVER DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD                     
QUICKLY OVERCOME AND ANY RASN MIX SHOULD BE BRIEF/NEGLIGIBLE.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
ARCTIC INTRUSION HIGHLIGHTS THIS PD W/EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS NOTED              
OVR THE INTERIOR OF AK AND THE CANADIAN YUKON W/MAYO REPORTING AN               
AMAZING -58 DEGREES. VAPOR SHOWS ROBUST SW TROUGH DIGGING SEWD                  
THROUGH NRN BC AND TAPPING INTO A PORTION OF THIS AIRMASS.                      
00Z SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/PREV RUNS INDICATING BC TROUGH                
WILL QUICKLY DROP SEWD AND AMPLIFY W/WHAT MAY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF             
THE SEASON YET COME SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM AROUND -25C. TALK              
HERE THIS MORNING IS W/FACT THAT SUNDAYS HIGHS ARE LIKELY A FALLACY             
W/NON-DIURNAL FALL MORE LIKELY. WILL EDGE LOWER WHILE MAINTAINING               
COLLABORATION BUT NONE THE LESS FRIGID THE KEY WORD. BIG BLOW                   
FOLLOWING FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT W/INTENSE CAA AND STG MOMENTUM XFER              
ESP W/UNIDIRECTIONAL LL WINDS. SHLD SEE SOME GUSTS AOA 50 MPH.                  
W/THAT AND SCANT MSTR WILL SCALE BACK LIMITED LK EFFECT. NO DOUBT               
SHEARED BL FLW AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC MSTR INPUT WILL GROSSLY LIMIT               
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YET RETAIN MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR XPCD LIGHT BUT             
MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES W/FAVORED NEEDLE ICE CRYSTALS              
AS DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SITTING ON THE GROUND.                                 
BEYOND THAT...WILL STICK W/ECMWF SOLUTION AND ITS HANDLING OF NXT               
SIG UPSTREAM SW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. GFS CONTINUITY             
QUITE POOR AND QUITE A DEPARTURE FM PRIOR RUNS MON-TUE NXT WEEK.                
SUFFICE IT TO SAY...DOUBT ARCTIC RIDGE WILL DISLODGE AS RAPIDLY AS              
EITHER THE GFS/OR NAM/WRF INDICATE MONDAY AND LIKELY AN INDICATION              
OF BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE AND TOO AMPLIFIED. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND             
SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AS THIS POINT              
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY W/SUCH HIGHLY VARIABLE MED RANGE SOLUTIONS.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS UPSTREAM OF KSBN               
HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING AND ALLOWED FOR TEMPO PD OF IFR CONDITIONS                 
09-13 UTC. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER LWRG AS KLOT                
RADAR CONTS TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY RETURNS...HOWEVER             
OVERALL TREND WILL NOT BE FOR SIG SNOW EVENT AS MODELS/PROFILER DATA            
INDICATING SHORTWAVE CENTRAL IL 850-700MB SHORTWAVE DRIVING EVENT               
RATHER WEAK AND ON THE WANE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.                 
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS WITH PD OF RESTRICTED/MVFR VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK            
ANTICIATED AT KFWA IN LIGHT FOG/FLURRIES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1235 PM EST THU FEB 7 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS THROUGH THIS FORECAST                  
PACKAGE. LIGHT FLURRIES CONTINUING WITH WEAK LIFT AND LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE. WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY LIGHT               
SNOW POSSIBLE. NOT MANY RETURNS UPSTREAM SO HAVE REMAIN OPTIMISTIC              
WITH VIS FOR NOW. THERE ARE SOME LOWER VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH BR AND             
THIS POSSIBILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM WITH LIGHT WIND FIELD. WILL                  
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN NEXT ISSUANCE.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
08Z ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE EASTERN            
SEABOARD...WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO              
THAT REGION. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS                 
PUSHED OUT OF THE FA. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS                
THE GREAT LAKES SAVE NW WI...WITH A FEW AREAS OF FLURRIES REPORTED              
THOUGH THE REGION. WEAK CAA HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER            
20S IN THE NORTH AND WEST. FARTHER UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY               
AND MODEL ANALYZED H5 FIELDS CONFIRM A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE                
PLAIN STATES. TROUGH FRACTURING IS ONGOING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS                  
INDICATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO DISTINCT VORT CENTERS OVER MB               
AND WESTERN OK. LIGHT PRECIP WAS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS            
AND WESTERN KS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF                 
VIRGA.                                                                          
TODAY...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EASTNMM4/AND RUC 13. GENERALLY                  
BENIGN                                                                          
WEATHER TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE RACES TOWARD THE              
REGION. DUE TO THE FRACTURING NATURE OF THE H5 TROUGH...NOT                     
EXPECTING MUCH INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA WITH ASCENT AREAS SLIDING                 
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FA. HAVE RETAINED FLURRY MENTIONED/ALL BE IT             
SMALL/WITH WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED IN THE STEADFAST                 
STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS                      
DISCUSSION...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SORT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE              
TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR PROGS.                   
HOWEVER...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASCENT PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE               
REGION...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO BE VERY MINIMAL...AND IF               
SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WOULD BE AT MOST A COUPLE TENTHS.                 
EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEAK                
MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. MAY SEE A            
FEW BREAKS BUT WITH CU RULE VALUES APPROACHING -7...GAPS WOULD                  
QUICKLY FILL IN.                                                                
HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WITH WEAK MIXING UNDER CLOUDY               
CONDITIONS....RESIDING BELOW MOS VALUES. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TEMPS             
TONIGHT WITH THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.                     
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                        
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OPERATIONAL EURO               
AND GFS MODELS VERY SIMILAR THRU MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL VERY LITTLE            
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY BAGGINESS                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH ONE SHRTWV DEPARTING            
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AN ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE               
REGION FROM THE PLAINS REACHING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING                
ACROSS HT EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF               
NORTH AMERICA...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO DRIVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HELP OF A STRONG POLAR VORT             
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                       
PRECIP CHCS EXIST LATE FRIDAY AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS              
THE SHRTWV MOVES THRU...MARGINAL TEMPS PROFILE FOR SNOW EARLY ON AS             
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S ACROSS               
THE REGION. BUFKIT ANALYSIS WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE            
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CONCERN HERE THAT THE BIAS OF UNDERPLAYING THE WAA            
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY OCCUR HERE AND THAT RAIN WOULD BE MORE                  
LIKELY. WILL KEEP MIX ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN               
TRANSIT TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.                 
LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE...WITH A BUMP TO THE POP INTO THE LIKELY                  
RANGE.                                                                          
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE                  
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING THRU DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME               
WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WEAK OMEGAS IN THE SNOW GROWTH               
REGION START TO INCREASE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES            
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS VERY STRONG             
CAA WILL DRIVE TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST. WIND CHILLS               
WILL APPROACH -20 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. H850 TEMPS DROP FROM              
NEAR -6C TO AROUND -26C BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE                        
STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40-45            
MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE            
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING               
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. NICE SOUNDINGS AS PER BUFKIT FOR LAKE             
EFFECT SNOWS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTN. THE DRY ARCTIC               
AIR COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH A MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT.             
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                     
SOME MILD DISAGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD...BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE             
BEEN VERY STABLE THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND HAVE STARTED TO SHOW THE               
TREND TO THE NORTH THAT MOST SYSTEMS AND BOUNDARIES HAVE SHOWN THIS             
SEASON. WITH NO BLOCKING IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLC...THE COLDER AIR              
WILL SLIDE EAST AND START TO MODIFY SLOWLY. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL               
DROP THRU ON MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF             
THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BUT                
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE DEEP WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.                   
UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THRU THE END OF THE                 
PERIOD...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE GFS TO SMOOTH OUT THE                   
DIFFERENCES FOR NOW. THE CURRENT GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS A SYSTEM                    
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO               
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SNOWS ACROSS A WIDE AREA.                 
BEHIND THE FRONT IT WOULD REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR WITH MODERATE CAA            
WHICH WOULD BRING BACK SOME VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID WEEK.            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...SCHOTT                                                              
AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
618 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH LOW                
CIGS AROUND 1-1.5K FEET...AND SOME LIGHT FZ DZ POSSIBLE. CIGS                   
SHOULD START TO LIFT SOME THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY               
AFTERNOON INTO THE 3-3.5 K FT RANGE AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE                 
SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LIGHT SOUTHERLY                    
WINDS WITH VFR OR MVFR CIGS AROUND 2.5 TO 3 K FT WILL CONTINUE                  
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
08Z ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE EASTERN            
SEABOARD...WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO              
THAT REGION. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS                 
PUSHED OUT OF THE FA. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS                
THE GREAT LAKES SAVE NW WI...WITH A FEW AREAS OF FLURRIES REPORTED              
THOUGH THE REGION. WEAK CAA HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER            
20S IN THE NORTH AND WEST. FARTHER UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY               
AND MODEL ANALYZED H5 FIELDS CONFIRM A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE                
PLAIN STATES. TROUGH FRACTURING IS ONGOING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS                  
INDICATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO DISTINCT VORT CENTERS OVER MB               
AND WESTERN OK. LIGHT PRECIP WAS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS            
AND WESTERN KS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF                 
VIRGA.                                                                          
TODAY...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EASTNMM4/AND RUC 13. GENERALLY BENIGN           
WEATHER TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE RACES TOWARD THE              
REGION. DUE TO THE FRACTURING NATURE OF THE H5 TROUGH...NOT                     
EXPECTING MUCH INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA WITH ASCENT AREAS SLIDING                 
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FA. HAVE RETAINED FLURRY MENTIONED/ALL BE IT             
SMALL/WITH WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED IN THE STEADFAST                 
STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS                      
DISCUSSION...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SORT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE              
TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR PROGS.                   
HOWEVER...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASCENT PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE               
REGION...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO BE VERY MINIMAL...AND IF               
SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WOULD BE AT MOST A COUPLE TENTHS.                 
EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEAK                
MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. MAY SEE A            
FEW BREAKS BUT WITH CU RULE VALUES APPROACHING -7...GAPS WOULD                  
QUICKLY FILL IN.                                                                
HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WITH WEAK MIXING UNDER CLOUDY               
CONDITIONS....RESIDING BELOW MOS VALUES. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TEMPS             
TONIGHT WITH THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.                     
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                        
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OPERATIONAL EURO               
AND GFS MODELS VERY SIMILAR THRU MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL VERY LITTLE            
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY BAGGINESS                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH ONE SHRTWV DEPARTING            
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AN ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE               
REGION FROM THE PLAINS REACHING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING                
ACROSS HT EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF               
NORTH AMERICA...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO DRIVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HELP OF A STRONG POLAR VORT             
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                       
PRECIP CHCS EXIST LATE FRIDAY AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS              
THE SHRTWV MOVES THRU...MARGINAL TEMPS PROFILE FOR SNOW EARLY ON AS             
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S ACROSS               
THE REGION. BUFKIT ANALYSIS WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE            
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CONCERN HERE THAT THE BIAS OF UNDERPLAYING THE WAA            
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY OCCUR HERE AND THAT RAIN WOULD BE MORE                  
LIKELY. WILL KEEP MIX ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN               
TRANSIT TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.                 
LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE...WITH A BUMP TO THE POP INTO THE LIKELY                  
RANGE.                                                                          
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE                  
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING THRU DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME               
WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WEAK OMEGAS IN THE SNOW GROWTH               
REGION START TO INCREASE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES            
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS VERY STRONG             
CAA WILL DRIVE TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST. WIND CHILLS               
WILL APPROACH -20 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. H850 TEMPS DROP FROM              
NEAR -6C TO AROUND -26C BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE                        
STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40-45            
MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE            
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING               
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. NICE SOUNDINGS AS PER BUFKIT FOR LAKE             
EFFECT SNOWS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTN. THE DRY ARCTIC               
AIR COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH A MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT.             
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                     
SOME MILD DISAGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD...BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE             
BEEN VERY STABLE THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND HAVE STARTED TO SHOW THE               
TREND TO THE NORTH THAT MOST SYSTEMS AND BOUNDARIES HAVE SHOWN THIS             
SEASON. WITH NO BLOCKING IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLC...THE COLDER AIR              
WILL SLIDE EAST AND START TO MODIFY SLOWLY. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL               
DROP THRU ON MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF             
THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BUT                
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE DEEP WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.                   
UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THRU THE END OF THE                 
PERIOD...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE GFS TO SMOOTH OUT THE                   
DIFFERENCES FOR NOW. THE CURRENT GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS A SYSTEM                    
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO               
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SNOWS ACROSS A WIDE AREA.                 
BEHIND THE FRONT IT WOULD REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR WITH MODERATE CAA            
WHICH WOULD BRING BACK SOME VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID WEEK.            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...SCHOTT                                                              
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
424 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
08Z ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE EASTERN            
SEABOARD...WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO              
THAT REGION. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS                 
PUSHED OUT OF THE FA. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS                
THE GREAT LAKES SAVE NW WI...WITH A FEW AREAS OF FLURRIES REPORTED              
THOUGH THE REGION. WEAK CAA HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER            
20S IN THE NORTH AND WEST. FARTHER UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY               
AND MODEL ANALYZED H5 FIELDS CONFIRM A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE                
PLAIN STATES. TROUGH FRACTURING IS ONGOING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS                  
INDICATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO DISTINCT VORT CENTERS OVER MB               
AND WESTERN OK. LIGHT PRECIP WAS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS            
AND WESTERN KS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF                 
VIRGA.                                                                          
TODAY...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EASTNMM4/AND RUC 13. GENERALLY BENIGN           
WEATHER TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE RACES TOWARD THE              
REGION. DUE TO THE FRACTURING NATURE OF THE H5 TROUGH...NOT                     
EXPECTING MUCH INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA WITH ASCENT AREAS SLIDING                 
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FA. HAVE RETAINED FLURRY MENTIONED/ALL BE IT             
SMALL/WITH WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED IN THE STEADFAST                 
STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS                      
DISCUSSION...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SORT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE              
TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR PROGS.                   
HOWEVER...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASCENT PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE               
REGION...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO BE VERY MINIMAL...AND IF               
SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WOULD BE AT MOST A COUPLE TENTHS.                 
EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEAK                
MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. MAY SEE A            
FEW BREAKS BUT WITH CU RULE VALUES APPROACHING -7...GAPS WOULD                  
QUICKLY FILL IN.                                                                
HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WITH WEAK MIXING UNDER CLOUDY               
CONDITIONS....RESIDING BELOW MOS VALUES. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TEMPS             
TONIGHT WITH THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                        
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OPERATIONAL EURO               
AND GFS MODELS VERY SIMILAR THRU MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL VERY LITTLE            
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY BAGGINESS                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH ONE SHRTWV DEPARTING            
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AN ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE               
REGION FROM THE PLAINS REACHING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING                
ACROSS HT EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF               
NORTH AMERICA...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO DRIVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HELP OF A STRONG POLAR VORT             
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                       
PRECIP CHCS EXIST LATE FRIDAY AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS              
THE SHRTWV MOVES THRU...MARGINAL TEMPS PROFILE FOR SNOW EARLY ON AS             
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S ACROSS               
THE REGION. BUFKIT ANALYSIS WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE            
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CONCERN HERE THAT THE BIAS OF UNDERPLAYING THE WAA            
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY OCCUR HERE AND THAT RAIN WOULD BE MORE                  
LIKELY. WILL KEEP MIX ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN               
TRANSIT TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.                 
LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE...WITH A BUMP TO THE POP INTO THE LIKELY                  
RANGE.                                                                          
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE                  
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING THRU DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME               
WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. WEAK OMEGAS IN THE SNOW GROWTH               
REGION START TO INCREASE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES            
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS VERY STRONG             
CAA WILL DRIVE TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST. WIND CHILLS               
WILL APPROACH -20 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. H850 TEMPS DROP FROM              
NEAR -6C TO AROUND -26C BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE                        
STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40-45            
MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE            
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING               
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. NICE SOUNDINGS AS PER BUFKIT FOR LAKE             
EFFECT SNOWS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTN. THE DRY ARCTIC               
AIR COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH A MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT.             
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                     
SOME MILD DISAGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD...BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE             
BEEN VERY STABLE THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND HAVE STARTED TO SHOW THE               
TREND TO THE NORTH THAT MOST SYSTEMS AND BOUNDARIES HAVE SHOWN THIS             
SEASON. WITH NO BLOCKING IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLC...THE COLDER AIR              
WILL SLIDE EAST AND START TO MODIFY SLOWLY. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL               
DROP THRU ON MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF             
THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BUT                
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE DEEP WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.                   
UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THRU THE END OF THE                 
PERIOD...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE GFS TO SMOOTH OUT THE                   
DIFFERENCES FOR NOW. THE CURRENT GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS A SYSTEM                    
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO               
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SNOWS ACROSS A WIDE AREA.                 
BEHIND THE FRONT IT WOULD REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR WITH MODERATE CAA            
WHICH WOULD BRING BACK SOME VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID WEEK.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW OHIO...WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION             
AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SNOW                     
SHOWERS IN EASTERN AREAS TO CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION. EXPECT                 
VISBYS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH CIGS RAISING             
TO MVFR CAT. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
POSSIBLE VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON WITH DRY PUSH CONTINUING                   
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS THE OUTSIDE                 
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON                
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE WILL PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAF              
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...SCHOTT                                                              
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
300 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO                
BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER REMAINING SNOW COVERED                   
AREAS FROM NEAR LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY NORTHEASTWARD TO INTERSTATE              
70. MAGNITUDE OF SFC WINDS ALSO A BIT OF A                                      
CHALLENGE...PARTICULARLY HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE THROUGH THE                    
AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                                
00Z/08 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET                
CORE IMPACTING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.                 
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME MODERATE LIFTING WAS OCCURRING                     
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION ALOFT. NONE OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS                   
REACHING THE GROUND...IN FACT CEILINGS WERE MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 10               
THOUSAND FEET. WEAK SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS               
WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE                  
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG NORTHWEST LOWER TROP WINDS WILL EXIST               
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AM                       
EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 19 TO 23 KNOT RANGE.                   
RUC13 IS SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TOUCHING ADVISORY CRITERIA (26                
KNOTS OR 30 MPH)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FROM OTHER                
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. DAY                
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MORNING OBS SHOULD RUC13 SURFACE WINDS               
COME TO FRUITION.                                                               
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO TODAY...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE QUITE A                 
BIT OF SUNSHINE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL                 
EXIST BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALBEIT DOWNSLOPE MODIFIED. SHOULD ACTUALLY              
SEE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS BUT PERHAPS A                    
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE                
DEGRADATION OF THE SNOWPACK WITH HIGHS OVER THESE AREAS IN THE 39               
TO 43F RANGE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWPACK...HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH                 
UPPER 40S WITH A FEW LOW 50S POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND ELKHART.                
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP DOWN                 
INTO THE LOWER 20S OVER MOST AREAS. WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN                  
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH                      
SATURDAY. AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW JET CORE SHIFTS EASTWARD THOUGH                 
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL RISE               
AND WARMER TEMPS WILL BE SEEN. SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER TO              
MID 50S ON SATURDAY WITH READINGS PERHAPS TOUCHING LOWER 60S IN                 
THE ELKHART AREA. ANY LINGERING SNOW COVER AREAS WILL BE COOLER                 
WITH MID-UPPER 40S AS A RULE.                                                   
AS SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW JET CORE PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST                  
REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT                          
ANTICYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                     
PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL BE OF PURE ARCTIC ORIGINS. THE SOURCE REGION             
OF THIS AIRMASS HAS BITTERLY -15 TO -25C H85 TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH              
IT ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AT THIS TIME. A HEALTHY DOSE OF                 
THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING               
AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY                      
MORNING. -UMSCHEID                                                              
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON                
SUNDAY WITH ARCTIC SURGE, THEN HOW WARM IT CAN GET ON WEDNESDAY WITH            
WARMING AND RIDGING.                                                            
ONLY MODEL HANDLING SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE THE NEW ECMWF            
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT DODGE BY 00Z MONDAY. THAT SAID THE GFS            
WHILE STILL WARM AT 850MB ALSO SHOWS AN BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO                     
OKLAHOMA, BUT KNOW WITH THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC SURGES MODELS STRUGGLE             
WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS. UKMET SHOWS BETTER DOWNSLOPE WITH THE SURFACE             
COLD HIGH FARTHER EAST AND SHALLOW ARCTIC BROKEN IN FAR WEST. WILL              
CONTINUE WITH THE COLD FORECAST OF HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM                 
AROUND 30 AT HAYS TO THE MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. COULD ALSO BE LOTS              
OF CLOUDS WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE AND COLD AIR TRAPPED TOWARD GROUND              
IN INVERSION. CLOUDS AND COLD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME                  
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE            
GFS STILL TRENDING TOWARD -6C AT 850MB ON TUESDAY MORNING WHILE EC              
IS STILL WARM INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH DISCONTINUITY WILL MAINTAIN             
CURRENT WARM TREND WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING THE 50S AND                 
POSSIBLY 60S IF ECMWF VERIFIES. THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN ON                
LATE THURSDAY. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE AUGMENTED            
BY ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND SO TRIED TO KEEP COOLER HIGHS WEST AND                
NORTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE               
ALLOWING MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WITH SUN              
COMING OUT THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD MIXING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30KTS             
THIS MORNING DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATE. VFR CONDITIONS                    
CONTINUE INTO 12Z SATURDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  47  24  52  18 /  10   0   0   0                                           
GCK  41  21  48  14 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  51  24  59  20 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  48  24  54  21 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  41  21  45  14 /  10   0   0   0                                           
P28  49  25  56  21 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN25/06/06                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1034 PM MST THU FEB 7 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  THE PRESSURE               
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AND BY MID-DAY STRONG NORTHWEST               
WINDS WILL GUST PAST 30 KNOTS AT BOTH TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER WILL               
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE END OF THE               
TAF PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM MST THU FEB 7 2008/                          
.DISCUSSION...17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT              
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH            
ENTERING THE PAC NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED                 
ACROSS EASTERN CWA...WHILE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN                 
COLORADO AND WYOMING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING            
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE                
TEMPS.                                                                          
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA                 
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS AT AND ABOVE H85 INCREASE TO 45-50KTS                    
OVERNIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY BEHIND FROPA...BUT              
POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS ALL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION SO DO            
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY KIND OF WIND HIGHLIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY              
UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS MIXING BEGINS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS            
LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 37KTS            
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE BEFORE DEEP MIXING SETS UP             
AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIND HIGHLIGHT ATTM. SHORT WAVE                         
TROUGH...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE ACROSS              
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST TO AREAS OF ASCENT WILL                       
DEVELOP...ON IN AREA WAA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE                      
TROUGH...AND ANOTHER ACROSS WEST WHEN TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP               
ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ATMOSPHERE APPEARS VERY DRY BASED ON RAOBS               
AND CURRENT T-TD SPREADS AND WITH QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AM NOT             
CONFIDENT ON PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY ON THE            
GFS...ARE VERY STEEP WHEN COLD (H5 T AROUND -31C) TROUGH MOVES                  
ACROSS THE AREA. NO REAL PERSISTENT AREAS OF FRONTOGENESIS TO FOCUS             
ANY PRECIP...AND SREF POPS ARE VERY LOW. HARD TO IGNORE POTENTIAL               
INSTABILITY AND FORCING SO WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT               
WITH CONCERNS ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND LACK OF SUPPORT BY                
SREF AND NAM WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. IF SNOW DOES             
DEVELOP...WILL PROBABLY HAVE BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS AS WELL BUT WITH             
SUCH LOW PROBABILITIES OF SNOW  WILL NOT INCLUDE BLSN AT THIS TIME.             
TOMORROW NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH CWA APPEARING TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF                
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE                 
AREA...EXPECT WX TO QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONCERN WILL BE                   
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...AS MODELS ALL SUGGEST VERY COLD AIRMASS TO               
SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGE            
AXIS IN ITS EXPECTED LOCATION...COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL                    
SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AND SHOULD HAVE A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE                  
GRADIENT. ALSO WITH SHALLOW COLD FRONT AND STRONG WAA OVER THE TOP              
OF IT...MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT FZDZ PROBLEMS ON SUNDAY. NOT CONFIDENT              
ENOUGH ON FRONTAL LOCATION AND ANY POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN TO                  
MENTION THIS IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE            
ON THIS TIMEFRAME.                                                              
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH HANDLING             
OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF            
THE WEEK. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME AGREEMENT AND 00Z AND 06Z GFS             
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THESE MODELS...WHILE THE                
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED 06Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH                 
AVAILABLE ENS DATA AND AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A 00Z                
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ANY                    
POTENTIAL PRECIP WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND               
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF            
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT TROUGH...ENSEMBLE DATA                
WARRANTS ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THE                
PERIOD. FOR TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS ALSO TIED TO HOW COLD             
AIRMASS BEHIND TROUGH WILL BE ON TUESDAY. WHILE LARGE DISAGREEMENT              
REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE               
AREA...AM GOING TO KEEP TEMPS IN  THE MIDDLE OF THE WARM ECMWF AND              
COLD GFS SOLUTIONS UNTIL THINGS BECOME A BIT CLEARER.                           
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA                  
WEDNESDAY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NOT REACHING THE AREA TIL            
LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME               
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED            
AS TIMING DIFFERENCES ALBEIT SUBTLE COULD ACCELERATE OR DELAY THE               
ONSET OF PRECIP. SHOULD CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY PRECIP AND               
CLOUDS WOULD EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING BACK IN AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS.                      
ASIDE FROM THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WINDS MAY BE OF CONCERN           
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE             
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND HAVE UPPED WINDS AS A RESULT.                    
850 TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE 8C-12C RANGE EXCEPT              
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH MAY ONLY                   
PRODUCE READINGS IN THE 4C-6C RANGE. SHOULD THIS VERIFY CURRENT                 
ADVERTISED HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. BEHIND             
THE TROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER BUT HOW MUCH IS IN QUESTION              
AS GFS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW HAVE GONE MID 40S WHICH IS A              
GOOD COMPROMISE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND 06Z ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS             
WITH BIAS ADDED FROM THE PREVIOUS 10 DAYS PERFORMANCE FROM THE GFS              
FOR ASOS SITES.                                                                 
ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER WITH TEMPS WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY AND                
WHERE LINGERING SNOW PACK EXISTS. GOODLAND LOST 2 INCHES OF SNOW                
DEPTH YESTERDAY AND MORE IS LIKELY TODAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES               
MUCH OF IT SHOULD BE GONE BY DAY 6 IF NOT SOONER AND NOT MUCH IMPACT            
ON TEMPS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KJ/JRM/DDT                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
424 PM MST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF...CURRENT WV/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DECK OF                          
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA             
INCLUDING BOTH KGLD AND KMCK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT               
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. AS THE TROUGH AXIS                
PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 09Z...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL                   
TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALL CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECTING SUSTAINED             
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH                     
ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING SLOWLY.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM MST THU FEB 7 2008/                          
.DISCUSSION...17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT              
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH            
ENTERING THE PAC NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED                 
ACROSS EASTERN CWA...WHILE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN                 
COLORADO AND WYOMING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING            
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE                
TEMPS.                                                                          
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA                 
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS AT AND ABOVE H85 INCREASE TO 45-50KTS                    
OVERNIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY BEHIND FROPA...BUT              
POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS ALL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION SO DO            
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY KIND OF WIND HIGHLIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY              
UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS MIXING BEGINS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS            
LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 37KTS            
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE BEFORE DEEP MIXING SETS UP             
AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIND HIGHLIGHT ATTM. SHORT WAVE                         
TROUGH...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE ACROSS              
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST TO AREAS OF ASCENT WILL                       
DEVELOP...ON IN AREA WAA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE                      
TROUGH...AND ANOTHER ACROSS WEST WHEN TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP               
ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ATMOSPHERE APPEARS VERY DRY BASED ON RAOBS               
AND CURRENT T-TD SPREADS AND WITH QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AM NOT             
CONFIDENT ON PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY ON THE            
GFS...ARE VERY STEEP WHEN COLD (H5 T AROUND -31C) TROUGH MOVES                  
ACROSS THE AREA. NO REAL PERSISTENT AREAS OF FRONTOGENESIS TO FOCUS             
ANY PRECIP...AND SREF POPS ARE VERY LOW. HARD TO IGNORE POTENTIAL               
INSTABILITY AND FORCING SO WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT               
WITH CONCERNS ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND LACK OF SUPPORT BY                
SREF AND NAM WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. IF SNOW DOES             
DEVELOP...WILL PROBABLY HAVE BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS AS WELL BUT WITH             
SUCH LOW PROBABILITIES OF SNOW  WILL NOT INCLUDE BLSN AT THIS TIME.             
TOMORROW NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH CWA APPEARING TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF                
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE                 
AREA...EXPECT WX TO QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONCERN WILL BE                   
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...AS MODELS ALL SUGGEST VERY COLD AIRMASS TO               
SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGE            
AXIS IN ITS EXPECTED LOCATION...COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL                    
SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AND SHOULD HAVE A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE                  
GRADIENT. ALSO WITH SHALLOW COLD FRONT AND STRONG WAA OVER THE TOP              
OF IT...MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT FZDZ PROBLEMS ON SUNDAY. NOT CONFIDENT              
ENOUGH ON FRONTAL LOCATION AND ANY POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN TO                  
MENTION THIS IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE            
ON THIS TIMEFRAME.                                                              
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH HANDLING             
OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF            
THE WEEK. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME AGREEMENT AND 00Z AND 06Z GFS             
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THESE MODELS...WHILE THE                
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED 06Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH                 
AVAILABLE ENS DATA AND AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A 00Z                
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ANY                    
POTENTIAL PRECIP WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND               
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF            
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT TROUGH...ENSEMBLE DATA                
WARRANTS ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THE                
PERIOD. FOR TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS ALSO TIED TO HOW COLD             
AIRMASS BEHIND TROUGH WILL BE ON TUESDAY. WHILE LARGE DISAGREEMENT              
REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE               
AREA...AM GOING TO KEEP TEMPS IN  THE MIDDLE OF THE WARM ECMWF AND              
COLD GFS SOLUTIONS UNTIL THINGS BECOME A BIT CLEARER.                           
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA                  
WEDNESDAY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NOT REACHING THE AREA TIL            
LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME               
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED            
AS TIMING DIFFERENCES ALBEIT SUBTLE COULD ACCELERATE OR DELAY THE               
ONSET OF PRECIP. SHOULD CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY PRECIP AND               
CLOUDS WOULD EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING BACK IN AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS.                      
ASIDE FROM THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WINDS MAY BE OF CONCERN           
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE             
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND HAVE UPPED WINDS AS A RESULT.                    
850 TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE 8C-12C RANGE EXCEPT              
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH MAY ONLY                   
PRODUCE READINGS IN THE 4C-6C RANGE. SHOULD THIS VERIFY CURRENT                 
ADVERTISED HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. BEHIND             
THE TROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER BUT HOW MUCH IS IN QUESTION              
AS GFS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW HAVE GONE MID 40S WHICH IS A              
GOOD COMPROMISE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND 06Z ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS             
WITH BIAS ADDED FROM THE PREVIOUS 10 DAYS PERFORMANCE FROM THE GFS              
FOR ASOS SITES.                                                                 
ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER WITH TEMPS WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY AND                
WHERE LINGERING SNOW PACK EXISTS. GOODLAND LOST 2 INCHES OF SNOW                
DEPTH YESTERDAY AND MORE IS LIKELY TODAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES               
MUCH OF IT SHOULD BE GONE BY DAY 6 IF NOT SOONER AND NOT MUCH IMPACT            
ON TEMPS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CSF/JRM/DDT                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
237 PM MST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT              
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH            
ENTERING THE PAC NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED                 
ACROSS EASTERN CWA...WHILE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN                 
COLORADO AND WYOMING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING            
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE                
TEMPS.                                                                          
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA                 
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS AT AND ABOVE H85 INCREASE TO 45-50KTS                    
OVERNIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY BEHIND FROPA...BUT              
POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS ALL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION SO DO            
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY KIND OF WIND HIGHLIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY              
UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS MIXING BEGINS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS            
LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 37KTS            
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE BEFORE DEEP MIXING SETS UP             
AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIND HIGHLIGHT ATTM. SHORT WAVE                         
TROUGH...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE ACROSS              
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST TO AREAS OF ASCENT WILL                       
DEVELOP...ON IN AREA WAA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE                      
TROUGH...AND ANOTHER ACROSS WEST WHEN TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP               
ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ATMOSPHERE APPEARS VERY DRY BASED ON RAOBS               
AND CURRENT T-TD SPREADS AND WITH QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AM NOT             
CONFIDENT ON PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY ON THE            
GFS...ARE VERY STEEP WHEN COLD (H5 T AROUND -31C) TROUGH MOVES                  
ACROSS THE AREA. NO REAL PERSISTENT AREAS OF FRONTOGENESIS TO FOCUS             
ANY PRECIP...AND SREF POPS ARE VERY LOW. HARD TO IGNORE POTENTIAL               
INSTABILITY AND FORCING SO WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT               
WITH CONCERNS ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND LACK OF SUPPORT BY                
SREF AND NAM WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. IF SNOW DOES             
DEVELOP...WILL PROBABLY HAVE BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS AS WELL BUT WITH             
SUCH LOW PROBABILITIES OF SNOW  WILL NOT INCLUDE BLSN AT THIS TIME.             
TOMORROW NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH CWA APPEARING TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF                
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE                 
AREA...EXPECT WX TO QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONCERN WILL BE                   
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...AS MODELS ALL SUGGEST VERY COLD AIRMASS TO               
SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGE            
AXIS IN ITS EXPECTED LOCATION...COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL                    
SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AND SHOULD HAVE A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE                  
GRADIENT. ALSO WITH SHALLOW COLD FRONT AND STRONG WAA OVER THE TOP              
OF IT...MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT FZDZ PROBLEMS ON SUNDAY. NOT CONFIDENT              
ENOUGH ON FRONTAL LOCATION AND ANY POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN TO                  
MENTION THIS IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE            
ON THIS TIMEFRAME.                                                              
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH HANDLING             
OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF            
THE WEEK. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME AGREEMENT AND 00Z AND 06Z GFS             
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THESE MODELS...WHILE THE                
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED 06Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH                 
AVAILABLE ENS DATA AND AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A 00Z                
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ANY                    
POTENTIAL PRECIP WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND               
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF            
DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT TROUGH...ENSEMBLE DATA                
WARRANTS ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THE                
PERIOD. FOR TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS ALSO TIED TO HOW COLD             
AIRMASS BEHIND TROUGH WILL BE ON TUESDAY. WHILE LARGE DISAGREEMENT              
REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE               
AREA...AM GOING TO KEEP TEMPS IN  THE MIDDLE OF THE WARM ECMWF AND              
COLD GFS SOLUTIONS UNTIL THINGS BECOME A BIT CLEARER.                           
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA                  
WEDNESDAY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NOT REACHING THE AREA TIL            
LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME               
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED            
AS TIMING DIFFERENCES ALBEIT SUBTLE COULD ACCELERATE OR DELAY THE               
ONSET OF PRECIP. SHOULD CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY PRECIP AND               
CLOUDS WOULD EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING BACK IN AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS.                      
ASIDE FROM THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WINDS MAY BE OF CONCERN           
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE             
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND HAVE UPPED WINDS AS A RESULT.                    
850 TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE 8C-12C RANGE EXCEPT              
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH MAY ONLY                   
PRODUCE READINGS IN THE 4C-6C RANGE. SHOULD THIS VERIFY CURRENT                 
ADVERTISED HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. BEHIND             
THE TROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER BUT HOW MUCH IS IN QUESTION              
AS GFS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW HAVE GONE MID 40S WHICH IS A              
GOOD COMPROMISE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND 06Z ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS             
WITH BIAS ADDED FROM THE PREVIOUS 10 DAYS PERFORMANCE FROM THE GFS              
FOR ASOS SITES.                                                                 
ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER WITH TEMPS WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY AND                
WHERE LINGERING SNOW PACK EXISTS. GOODLAND LOST 2 INCHES OF SNOW                
DEPTH YESTERDAY AND MORE IS LIKELY TODAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES               
MUCH OF IT SHOULD BE GONE BY DAY 6 IF NOT SOONER AND NOT MUCH IMPACT            
ON TEMPS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAF...WV/VIS IMAGERY SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUD            
DECK SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS IN                
ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOOKING AT OBS                 
UPSTREAM...EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT AROUND 10000 FT OVER KGLD WITH A            
BKN DECK OVER KMCK THROUGH AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST...WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP. GIVEN TIGHT                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH             
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/DDT/CSF                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
414 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ALONG WITH THE 00Z UPPER AIR MAPS              
SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS                 
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT`S SNOW FALL                
CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES.                
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC                
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
TODAY...THE 5H TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KS WILL MOVE EAST                 
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE RUC MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING               
THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SFC UP TO 700MB BETTER THAN THE GFS AND NAM.            
CLOUD BASES ARE ALL ABOVE 8KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS AHEAD              
OF THE FRONT. I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SNOW FLURRIES BUT IF THE RUC                
POINT SOUNDING ARE CORRECT ABOUT THE DRY LAYER UP TO 700MB THE SNOW             
MAY SUBLIMATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. AS THE 5H TROUGH MOVES               
EAST ACROSS KS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA                
THROUGH THE MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE A               
PERIOD OF STRATUS IN THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE WEAK             
FRONT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND                     
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WAS NOT                
MUCH COOLER...IN FACT THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP TO                
WARM TEMPS A BIT TODAY. HOWEVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK WILL KEEP               
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON            
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.                                               
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL              
DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY               
MORNING. AGAIN THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                     
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH...THUS ANY LIFT AHEAD OF THE 5H                
TROUGH MAY ONLY RESULT IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW                
FLURRIES. THE 5H TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THUS SKIES MAY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK WIND COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS                  
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL             
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THE DEEPER             
SNOW FIELD IS LOCATED. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW            
COVER LEFT AND MAY WARM INTO THE MID 40S.                                       
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO                
SHOW AN INTENSE 5H TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA             
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STATES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.              
THE STRONG CAA WILL BUILD AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGHS SOUTH ACROSS THE              
EASTERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL            
CAUSE A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY             
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND              
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH INTO THE SINGLE             
DIGITS.                                                                         
SUNDAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS             
ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THE ECMWF IS A BIT COLDER              
AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY HIGHS MAY BE 5 DEGREES OR SO TOO WARM ON               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA AND                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER TX AND             
OK NORTHWARD INTO KS. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND THERE MAY              
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. CLOUD COVER AND            
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.                        
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A 5H TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND CAUSE OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO                
VEER...ADVECTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A            
CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE COLDER AIR MAY              
ADVECT SOUTH AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY              
NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE            
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.                                                      
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER                
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO 40S.             
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S. THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND            
NO CHANGES WERE MADE.                                                           
66                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS              
WITHERED TO ONLY SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES UPON THE APPROACH OF             
MORE DENSE HIGH CLOUDINESS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE            
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A SURFACE WIND SHIFT WILL              
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH WESTERLY WINDS            
BECOMING DOMINANT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND                 
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE OWING TO GREATER RH. THERE               
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES AND CEILINGS NEAR 1000FT DURING               
THE DAY. CEILINGS IMPROVE AROUND SUNSET...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS                 
REENTERING THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE             
TROUGH.                                                                         
BLAIR                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
236 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRATO-CU CONTINUED TO COVER THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW              
FLURRIES NOTED ACROSS THE KEVV TRI-STATE. THE RUC SHOWS THE BACK                
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO SE MISSOURI. HOWEVER THE FLOW             
AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SW AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH                 
18Z. THEN THE MODELS PICK UP THE H9 FLOW AFT 18Z TO 10-20KTS. SO AM             
NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL PROGRESS. MEANWHILE...A                
LARGE AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN ON FOG IMAGERY              
AND WVAPOR IN ASSOC WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVG ESE FROM                 
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE              
AXIS OF THE TROF WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ESE TODAY. IT SHOULD BE OVER                 
LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS BY 00Z. SO WHILE WE              
MAY HAVE A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE THERE IS REDUCED CLOUD COVER...THINK            
MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE CLOUDS. HARD TO FIGURE OUT WHERE TRACE                 
PRECIP WILL END UP. BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE               
FA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WHERE NUMERICAL POPS ARE SLIGHTLY              
HIGHER. HOWEVER THE MODELS CARRY BETTER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THEREFORE...DO NOT PLAN               
ON ALTERING OUR LOW PROB FOR SPRINKLES AT THIS TIME THIS AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING. DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS NECESSARY.                                 
ANOTHER WAVE SEEN APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE               
AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY                 
LATE FRIDAY...IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO WAVE NUMBER 1 LATE TODAY.                 
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AGAIN A QUESTION MARK. GFS SHOWS MORE ROBUST                 
COLUMNAR MOISTURE THAN THE NAM WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHAT WE HAVE NOW               
LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT CHANGE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POP                    
GOING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING               
(MAYBE A MIX...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT / MINIMAL NONE THE LESS).                    
NO MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE POP / WX                  
ELEMENTS. GUIDANCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES WERE RUNNING WARMER FOR              
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY. GUIDANCE WAS NOT QUITE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT               
AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THEREFORE WE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO               
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ABOUT 15 KT ACROSS            
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS RATE...CLEARING LINE SHOULD                
APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 18Z. KEVV/KOWB SITES FORECAST             
TO DECREASE THE LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 00Z. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS WILL              
FOLLOW...WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FEET OR HIGHER. WEST WINDS WILL                   
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...THEN TURN LIGHT                      
SOUTHERLY. NO VSBY ISSUES FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.                                
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
356 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO                 
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON SATURDAY. A                 
LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY                  
NIGHT AND REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM                
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TEMPS THIS MORNING & SNOW TODAY INTO                 
THE EVENING. USED A BLEND OF THE RUC13 AND SREF THIS MORNING AND                
THEN WENT W/33% BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS & SREF THIS AFTERNOON INTO                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING MUCH BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ESP FOR THE NRN                 
AREAS. SOME SITES RUNNING AT LEAST SOME 10 DEGS BELOW MOS PER 06Z               
OBS. STG INVERSION IN PLACE ATTM W/CLR SKIES TO COLDER TEMPS.                   
LOCAL STUDY USING 925 DELTA T`S WORKING QUITE WELL FROM EVEVING                 
CREW/S ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPS WILL START TO WARM AFT 12Z W/WEAK WAA                 
PROGGED TO ARRIVE W/WEAK INVERTED TROF. WENT BELOW THE MOS                      
GUIDANCE TODAY BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE. CUT THE NUMBERS BACK ESP              
FOR THE N AND W BY SOME 3-5 DEGS. THEREFORE LOOKING AT UPPER TEENS              
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE N AND W AND MID-UPPER 20S DOWNEAST TO THE                  
COAST. SATL IR IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD               
THIS MORNING AND PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MIDDAY.                    
STARTED SKY GRIDS OFF W/THE LAPS AND THEN LOADED THE GFS SKY FOR                
TODAY. LIKED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM12 FOR SKY CONDITIONS                  
TONIGHT W/CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BECMG PARTLY CLOUDY AFT 06Z.                  
INVERTED SFC TROF TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY TONIGHT. WEAK                
WAA AND LLVL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION W/MID-LVL FORCING WILL                  
AID IN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT. THEREFORE...DECIDED ON                  
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN               
HAVE THE POPS DROPPING BACK TO CHC CATEGORY BY 06Z W/ERN AREAS                  
HANGING ONTO 60% POPS AS LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM INVERTED SFC TROF                
AND UPPER LVL FORCING TO KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING A WHILE LONGER.                  
DAYCREW/S ASSESSMENT FOR QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD.                   
TWEAKED THEM A BIT BASED ON LATEST HPC QPF GUIDANCE AND USING                   
12-15:1 RATIO WHICH SHOWS 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL AMTS W/HIGHER AMOUNTS               
FOR THE CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED            
WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY             
DIMINISH. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SNOW                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM                    
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE               
TO ADVERTISE AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM                  
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ENGLAND TO AFFECT THE REGION               
ON SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH WITH REGARD TO              
AREA SEEING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM LATER SATURDAY NIGHT                  
THROUGH SUNDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM                 
WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A STRONGER LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND               
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. CONSENSUS                
OF MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF SEEMS TO BE FOR SERIES OF WEAKER LOWS              
TO EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST                
EAST OF THE STATE AND THEN TRACK TOWARD THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT              
WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS THE REGION                 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A STEADY                       
LIGHT/MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO                   
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL              
FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANY                     
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE               
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW              
OF DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH              
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY.                    
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO DEVELOP                
ACROSS THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE                   
STILL UNCERTAIN OF COURSE THIS FAR OUT BUT THERE IS AT LEAST THE                
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT                
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
NEAR TERM: VFR DOWNEAST GOING TO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING AND HANGING              
ONTO THESE CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. VFR HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER               
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES AND THEN CONDITIONS DROP TO               
MVFR W/-SN MOVING IN.                                                           
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. MAINLY VFR RETURNS MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                
BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO EARLY                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TIL 17Z AS SEAS                  
RUNNING ABOUT 1-2 FT ABOVE WNAWAVE. NICE SWELL ATTM W/PERIODS OF                
11-12 SECONDS. NE WIND 15-20 KT WILL TURN ESE LATER THIS MORNING                
BUT WE ARE ANTICIPATING SPDS TO DROP BACK TO 10-15 KT BY AFTERNOON              
W/THE SWELL DROPPING BACK TO 3-5 FT W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE                      
INTRA-COASTAL BAYS WHERE 2-3 FT SHOULD HOLD AS THE SWELL WILL BREAK             
UP AS IT HITS THE SHALLOWER WATER.                                              
SHORT TERM: NEXT CHANCE OF HEADLINES WILL BE LATER SUNDAY AND INTO              
MONDAY AS WINDS/SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE MARITIMES.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY           
     FOR ANZ050-051.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...DUDA                                                               
LONG TERM...DUDA                                                                
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA                                                            
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
359 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH                       
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER QUEBEC. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE                      
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE                  
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE STATE                
ON SATURDAY THEN A LARGER STORM SYSTEM MAY TAKE SHAPE OFF THE                   
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SNOW OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST                    
TODAY WITH HOW MUCH AND HOW FAR NORTH WILL IT EXTEND.                           
DECIDED TO TAKE A RUC13/NAM/GFS BLEND FOR TODAY. RUC13 MATCHING                 
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND PRETTY CLOSE TO THE LATEST REGIONAL                
RADAR MOSAIC W/BANDS OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM               
SRN MAINE NE THROUGH INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. RADAR LOOP                     
SHOWING THESE BANDS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE. LOW PRES WILL                  
SLIDE S OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY W/PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTING                     
FURTHER TO THE SE BY THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE SNOW ADVISORY GOING                
FOR MEZ015>017 AND 029-030 INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...EXPANDING                 
THE SNOW SHIELD INTO CNTL AREAS OF MEZ011-031-032 W/THE POTENTIAL               
FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SNOW ACCUMULATION THERE. FOR THE ADVISORY                 
AREAS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS               
ON THE COAST. NAM AND GFS SNOW TOOLS PUMPING 7 TO 8 INCHES FROM                 
BGR TO BHB BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE PER SOME REPORTS FROM                 
GYX. DECIDED TO GO UNDER THESE AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR SO.                        
TEMPERATURES IN THE CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN STEADY FOR              
THE MOST PART TODAY.                                                            
A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF WAS TAKEN FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER LVL                  
DISTURBANCE IN CONJUNCTION W/A SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION                   
LATER TONIGHT. ATTM...WENT W/3-40% POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BEST                   
FORCING APPEARS TO BE OVER THE W AND SRN AREAS. GMOS TEMPERATURES               
WERE LOADED BUT ONCE AGAIN WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD ESP ACROSS THE N               
AND E WHERE CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO THICKEN. IN THESE                     
AREAS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGS OR SO BEFORE                    
LEVELING OFF.                                                                   
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
SHORT WAVE PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE                   
FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY. THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST               
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE                  
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY NIGH              
THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW                 
ENGLAND. GFS/EC/CAN GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOWING LOW PRESSURE                      
TRACKING EAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WHAT IS                  
STILL NOT SO CERTAIN IS THE EVENTUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM                
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE UTILIZED GMOS POPS                  
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY               
SINCE GMOS LOOKED LOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL ACROSS THE                 
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND               
MONDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER AIR EXPECTED. EXPECT                      
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE                 
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, OVERALL IT                 
APPEARS AS THE ACTIVE WILL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
NEAR TERM: VFR OVER THE REGION ATTM...BUT THINKING THAT IFR/MVFR                
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS BGR AND BHB. THE N WILL               
KEEP VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THINKING HERE IS THAT MVFR                 
CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.            
EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON                 
WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO                       
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. VFR RETURNS FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH             
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: SCA WILL STAY UP TODAY AS WINDS/SEAS ALREADY RESPONDING              
W/SUSTAINED WINDS OUT THERE ATTM OF 20 KTS AND SEAS HITTING 5 FT.               
PREV GRIDS WERE RIGHT THERE AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO                 
THEM FOR TODAY W/20-25 KT AND SEAS INCG TO 4-6 FT. A 50/50 BLEND                
OF THE NAM12/GFS WAS TAKEN FOR TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO CONDITIONS                
GOING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A SWELL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE                  
WAKE OF TH DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS SEAS                  
COULD STAY UP A BIT LONGER AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                  
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SCA                
OR POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ015>017-029-            
     030.                                                                       
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS           
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...DUDA                                                               
LONG TERM...DUDA                                                                
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA                                                            
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1055 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SFC LOW BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN NOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO                  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND UPSTREAM                          
OBSERVATIONS DEPICTING THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE                    
ACCENT...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND AN EXPANSION IN LGT PCPN                   
REPORTS ACROSS EASTERN IL. MORE PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN                
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FEATURE ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL              
PROFILE TO WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME                     
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS REMAINS A CONCERN LOCALLY TONIGHT...                  
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AS THIS MOISTURE TRANSLATES                   
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.                                           
SFC TEMPERATURES PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND               
FREEZING...WITH LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH INTO THE TOLEDO AREA NOW IN                
THE 33-35F RANGE. CHECK OF THE LATEST 00Z NAM SOUNDING DATA                     
INDICATES A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF            
RAIN MIX WITH THE SNOW FROM ROUGHLY ANN ARBOR-DETROIT SOUTHWARD.                
THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AFTER 09Z ACROSS THIS                 
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MODEST FORCING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT                  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09-14Z EARLY THIS                
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM I-69 NORTH WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILE                  
WILL CLEARLY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW AND WHERE MORE PRONOUNCED            
FORCING WILL EXIST. WILL CUT INTO AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OHIO              
BORDER COUNTIES GIVEN THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING BASED                
ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM THERMAL TRENDS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 630 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER                   
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF AN                
AREAS OF LGT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL                    
IMPULSE WILL TAPER OFF AT FNT/MBS BY 02Z...BRINGING VISIBILITY                  
BACK INTO VFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENING. WEAK WARM AIR                    
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL HELP SPREAD ANOTHER                   
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY/MID                   
MORNING HOURS. STRONG LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...               
AND THUS EXPECT VISIBILITY TO HOLD AT MVFR DURING THIS TIME.                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND AN              
INITIAL COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS.                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                              
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                         
VERY LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN                 
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT LOCATION ACROSS THE TRI                  
CITIES AND THUMB. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT ALONG               
LEADING THETA E BUBBLE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THE RUC HAS A              
GREAT HANDLE ON. KDTX RADAR IS GIVING THE DRIZZLE LOOK BEHIND THIS              
SNOW ACTIVITY AND EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE WITH THE SATURATED                 
LOWER TROPOSPHERE. HAVE CUT THE POPS THIS EVENING BACK DOWN TO                  
CHANCE AS METARS HAVE BEEN COMING IN ONLY A TRACE. DESPITE                      
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH BELOW FREEZING...NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGE                   
HEADACHES DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS AREA ROADWAYS SHOULD BE HEAVILY            
TREATED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY HOLD STEADY JUST UNDER THE              
FREEZING MARK.                                                                  
DESPITE WEAK CONTINUED WARMING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS BULLISH ON ALL               
SNOW MENTION LATER TONIGHT IN THE BUFFER SOUNDINGS AND IN AGREEMENT             
WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN RESIDENCE NORTH OF THE IOWAN SURFACE             
REFLECTION.  TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THE            
OTHER OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN                   
QUASI-CONFLUENT FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN A SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM                  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTWARD TO FRANKFORT MICHIGAN BY THE END             
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
AM FAIRLY IMPRESSED WITH THE THERMODYNAMICS OVERNIGHT AS LOW STATIC             
STABILITY EXISTS FROM 900MB UPWARD.  GIVEN MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC             
ENVIRONMENT...FEEL THERE ARE NO NEGATIVE ISSUES REGARDING MOISTURE.             
ON THE OTHER HAND...SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY                          
LACKLUSTER...GIVEN RAGGED APPEARANCE TO MIDLEVEL VORTS...LACK OF ANY            
OBVIOUS JET DYNAMICS...AND WEAK MODELED FRONTOGENESIS.  SO IT                   
APPEARS...FORCING FOR SNOW WILL BE TIED STRICTLY TO 285K ISENTROPIC             
LIFT/WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH THE A LACK OF AN                         
INVERSION...AN EXPECTED SATURATED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH 400MB...THERE              
IS A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 1 TO 2              
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR EVERYONE WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS                
(BEST BET UP NORTH CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW).  HAVE SLOWED THE                     
ONSET...AFTER 6Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY FROM 9-12Z.                       
DID DROP LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS WET BULB PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW            
A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOWS MOVE IN...AT OR JUST               
UNDER 30 DEGREES.                                                               
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE             
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR POISED TO INFILTRATE THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY                
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY                
COLD WIND CHILLS. THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS             
STILL FORECAST TO RACE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY                 
EVENING PER 12Z MODEL SUITE AND DEVELOP INTO A CUT OFF CIRCULATION              
BY SUN MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN                
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY...THEN MERGE WITH THE SURFACE               
LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE             
RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD END THE SNOWFALL BY LATE                    
SATURDAY MORNING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE HOWEVER              
WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT SATURDAY EVENING...LIKELY LEADING TO            
BRIEF YET INTENSE BURST OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.                                
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF            
THE STATE WILL QUICKLY RACE ACROSS SE MI SATURDAY EVENING. THE 12Z              
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA.                
THIS AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY GET ADVECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY            
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS ARE STILL             
FORECAST TO DROP FROM AROUND -8C 00Z SUN TO AROUND -25C BY 12Z SUN.             
A DECENT ISALLOBARIC COUPLET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE FRONT                   
THROUGH THE STATE SAT EVENING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF POTENTIAL                
TEMPERATURE AND OMEGA INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD                    
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITHIN STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE EARLY SUNDAY              
MORNING...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 45            
KNOT WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THUS WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50              
MPH SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC                  
AIRMASS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY                        
MORNING...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE             
TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL                    
READINGS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT THERE            
WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY HOWEVER NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT A            
HAZARD GIVEN THE HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.                           
THE UPPER LOW AND ARCTIC AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED IN              
THIS FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE             
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD STILL HOWEVER ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BELOW              
ZERO IN MANY PLACES BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING EARLY NEXT             
WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT              
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT WAVE FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS               
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ALL               
DEPICT SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY            
NIGHT. FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME            
MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS. THUS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF              
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS STAGE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN             
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND CANADIAN             
ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TUESDAY. GIVEN THE            
UPPER AIR PATTERN...PREFER THE MORE SOUTHERLY ECMWF TRACK...WHICH               
KEEPS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN THE COLDER AIR...INDICATING ANY                 
LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE             
TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN THE WAKE             
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE IMPENDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT             
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF              
LAKE HURON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.                
VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH A              
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY APPROACH             
45 KNOTS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. IF CURRENT                 
MODEL TRENDS HOLD...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNINGS              
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC                 
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-         
     LHZ464...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                
     GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-           
     LHZ443-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM                   
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......MR                                                                 
AVIATION.....MR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....SC                                                                 
MARINE.......SC                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FCST FOR THE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER            
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS                
BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. PER 00Z RUC...              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 285K THETA SFC IS BEING MAXIMIZED IN ERN WI            
AND THAT IS WHERE RADARS SHOW THE BEST RADAR RETURNS. ANOTHER ARC OF            
-SN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL WI JUST N OF VORT MAX            
TRACK (DEFORMATION ZONE).                                                       
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER 00Z RUC AND                        
EXTRAPOLATION OF -SN CURRENTLY OVER WI SUGGEST ROUGHLY THE SE HALF              
OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE SOME -SN OVERNIGHT. MOST PERSISTENT -SN               
WILL BE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL                  
OCCUR. INHERITED FCST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 1 TO              
1.5 INCHES SHOULD COVER SNOW AMOUNTS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 355 PM EST)...                                      
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELTS SATURDAY            
EVENING INTO SUNDAY...                                                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACRS             
NAMERICA WITH TROFFING IN THE ARCTIC AND POLAR BRANCHES CENTERED                
NEAR HUDSON BAY/THE MS RIVER VALLEY. POLAR BRANCH SHRTWV NOTED                  
MOVING INTO WI SUPPORTING AN AREA OF -SN FM CNTRL MN INTO NW WI                 
WHERE MOIST 12Z MPX SDNG SUGS ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED ENUF TO                   
SUPPORT PCPN. EARLIER TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW SHOWED A VERY DRY LYR BTWN             
H9-7...SO LTL GOING ON LOCALLY WITH WEAK RDG OVHD...JUST SOME MID               
AND HI CLD NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW. FARTHER                  
UPSTREAM...A MORE POTENT SHRTWV NOTED DIGGING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.            
H3 WIND SPEEDS APRCHG 150KT NOTED WITHIN UPR JET CORE ACCOMPANYING              
THIS SYS AND ORIENTED ALG SHARP GRADIENT OF H3 HGT RISES.                       
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                            
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TNGT IS POTENTIAL SN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV               
NOW DRIFTING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST. FOCUS FOR SAT SHIFTS TO TIMING/              
IMPACT OF POTENT SHRTWV NOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...SPECIFICALLY                
SN/AND ONSET OF POTENTIALLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE W.            
FOR TNGT INTO SAT MRNG...LO PRES OVER THE UPR MIDWEST FCST TO DRIFT             
INTO NRN LK MI BY 12Z SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING ON THE                    
280-285K SFCS (H65-8) FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA              
IN ADVANCE OF THIS LO. SINCE THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MOISTENING OFF              
LI MI...OPTED TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY NEAR THE LK MI SHORE FM LATE            
TNGT INTO SAT MRNG BEFORE THE SFC LO/ISENTROPIC LIFT TRACKS TO THE              
NE AND A WEAK RDG AXIS MOVES OVHD IN ITS WAKE. 1-2G/KG SPECIFIC                 
HUMIDITY NOTED IN THE H7-75 LYR...SO EXPECT AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF              
SN TO FALL DURING THE 9 HR PD OF PCPN IN THIS AREA. EXPECT LTL SN TO            
THE NW WITH RDG AXIS BTWN LO PRES AREA AND APRCHG COLD FNT                      
ASSOCIATED WITH BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV.                                        
ON SAT AFTN...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF                 
BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV AND ARCTIC FNT...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO REACH               
IWD JUST ARND 19Z AND THEN P53-ESC ARND 00Z. SHARP PRES RISE/CAD                
BEHIND THE BNDRY IN CONCERT WITH 45KT WINDS IN THE MIXED LYR WHERE              
LAPSE RATES WL BE ENHANCED BY THE STRONG CAD SUG SUBSTANTIAL MIXING             
TO THE SFC...SO LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS/BLSN TO DVLP QUICKLY AFT FROPA             
AS TEMPS FALL. ATMOSPHERE WL BE RATHER DRY (PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH)...SO            
A WHOLE LOT OF SN NOT ON TAP WITH QUICK MOVING FNT EVEN THOUGH                  
VIGOROUS 12Z HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW WL TEND              
TO SQUEEZE OUT THE MEAGER MSTR AVBL. THERE WL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT               
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W...WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES WL LIKELY             
FALL BEFORE 24Z.                                                                
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                               
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST NORTH OF SAULT STE MARIE SATURDAY EVENING              
LEAVING 25-30MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN UPR MI AND LK                 
SUPERIOR. STRONG BURST OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WINDS IN                
WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT (AIDED BY 10MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE) SHOULD                   
SWEEP INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY LATE EVENING. AFTERWARD...STRONG                  
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT ARE A FUNCTION OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT               
MAINTAINING THROUGH 12Z SUN. H95-H85 WINDS FM WEST TO NORTHWEST                 
ALLOW MOST CONCENTRATED CONVERGENCE AND LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO               
MOVE INTO ONTONAGON TO BEGIN THE EVENING AND IN THE SNOWBELTS EAST              
OF MUNISING AFTER LATE SAT EVENING. H85 TEMPS LOWERING BLO -20C IN              
THE MIXED LAYER LEAD TO VERY SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE WHICH WON`T BE                
SUITABLE FOR LARGE ACCUMS...BUT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT IN YIELDING              
SEVERELY REDUCED VSBY OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY             
AND IN ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTIES IN THE NE CWA. A CONCERN ON                  
KEWEENAW IS A MORE WNW WIND DIRECTION WHICH MAY SHUT OFF THE MORE               
CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF CALUMET AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE              
OF SNOW/WIND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO SHADOW FM ISLE ROYALE.               
AREAS WHERE THE MAX LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE -12C TO -18C (BETTER SNOW            
GROWTH) LAYER ALSO INDICATE THIS TREND WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OVR                  
ONTONAGON AND ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES.                                              
SINCE AM NOT QUITE SURE HOW KEWEENAW COUNTY WILL WORK OUT AFTER THE             
EVENING FOR THE MEETING OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OPT TO KEEP                 
BLIZZARD WATCH GOING. PREVIOUS SET TIMES FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCHES               
LOOKED FINE. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND              
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT ZONES DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING THE LK EFFECT            
SNOW BANDS FARTHER INLAND/SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND VERY LOW WIND            
CHILLS. SPEAKING OF THE WIND CHILLS ADDED MENOMINEE AND DELTA INTO              
THE GOING WIND CHILL WATCH. EVENTUALLY SOME TYPE OF HEADLINE...BE IT            
WIND CHILL ADVY OR WINTER WEATHER ADVY (SNOW/BLSN/WIND CHILL COMBO)...          
WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT                
INTO SUNDAY.                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC BY LATE SUNDAY WITH LK EFFECT             
SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW DIMINISHING OVER THE NW SNOW BELTS BY                
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FM THE NW               
WINDS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTIAL                 
CLEARING AND PLUMMETING TEMPS OVR WEST INTERIOR. FOLLOWING HPC                  
PREFERENCE OF ECMWF IN THE UPCOMING WEEK RESULTS IN WEAK LOW                    
PRESSURE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING GREAT LAKES MON-TUE. HIGHEST            
CHANCES IN THE CWA APPEAR OVR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ANOTHER LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION ON THU. GFS MORE EMPHATIC IN                 
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY LATE WEEK BUT ECMWF NOT AS               
AMPLIFIED. CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED NOT HIGH AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT             
DISAGREEMENTS BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES NOT POINTING TO              
ANY ONE DIRECTION EITHER. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO/HPC                                  
GUIDANCE ARE PREFERRED FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE NIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF            
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE              
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD...VIS SHOULD               
NOT DROP BLO MVFR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP SAT MORNING AS SW WINDS             
AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                
(WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT OVER MN RIGHT NOW) INTO THE AREA.             
STRONG/SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSING THRU KCMX LATE IN THE AFTN               
WILL BRING A RAPID FALL TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SN/BLSN. VLIFR                   
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WELL BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD INTO SUN                 
MORNING.                                                                        
AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR BY LATE                     
EVENING...THEN IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT S                
FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST GRADUALLY                
DRAWS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATER IN               
THE NIGHT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SN WITH IFR VIS/CIGS PREDOMINATING.             
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTN...BUT DO NOT             
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR. STRONG/SHARP ARCTIC COLD               
FRONT ARRIVING LATE AFTN WILL DROP VIS TO IFR IN A PERIOD OF -SN.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT NW GALES TO DVLP OVER WRN LK SUP BEHIND STRONG COLD FNT ON               
SAT AFTN AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE LK BY EARLY EVNG. STORM                 
FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATER SAT NGT/EARLY SUN IN             
SHARP CYC NW FLOW BEHIND DEEP LO PRES MOVING INTO SE CAN BEFORE LO              
MOVES QUICKLY AWAY AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS SUN AFTN. RELATIVELY              
LGT WINDS WL PREVAIL MON THRU WED WITH NEXT DEEPER LO FCST TO TRACK             
WELL TO THE S EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON            
     FOR MIZ001>003.                                                            
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ009>013.                                                  
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR MIZ085.                                                                
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ084.                                                      
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR            
     MIZ006-007.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.             
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266.             
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-             
     265.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LSZ162-263.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
643 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS                                        
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELTS SATURDAY            
EVENING INTO SUNDAY...                                                          
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 355 PM EST)...                                             
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACRS             
NAMERICA WITH TROFFING IN THE ARCTIC AND POLAR BRANCHES CENTERED                
NEAR HUDSON BAY/THE MS RIVER VALLEY. POLAR BRANCH SHRTWV NOTED                  
MOVING INTO WI SUPPORTING AN AREA OF -SN FM CNTRL MN INTO NW WI                 
WHERE MOIST 12Z MPX SDNG SUGS ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED ENUF TO                   
SUPPORT PCPN. EARLIER TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW SHOWED A VERY DRY LYR BTWN             
H9-7...SO LTL GOING ON LOCALLY WITH WEAK RDG OVHD...JUST SOME MID               
AND HI CLD NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW. FARTHER                  
UPSTREAM...A MORE POTENT SHRTWV NOTED DIGGING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.            
H3 WIND SPEEDS APRCHG 150KT NOTED WITHIN UPR JET CORE ACCOMPANYING              
THIS SYS AND ORIENTED ALG SHARP GRADIENT OF H3 HGT RISES.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ISSUED AT 355 PM EST)...                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TNGT IS POTENTIAL SN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV               
NOW DRIFTING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST. FOCUS FOR SAT SHIFTS TO TIMING/              
IMPACT OF POTENT SHRTWV NOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...SPECIFICALLY                
SN/AND ONSET OF POTENTIALLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE W.            
FOR TNGT INTO SAT MRNG...LO PRES OVER THE UPR MIDWEST FCST TO DRIFT             
INTO NRN LK MI BY 12Z SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING ON THE                    
280-285K SFCS (H65-8) FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA              
IN ADVANCE OF THIS LO. SINCE THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MOISTENING OFF              
LI MI...OPTED TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY NEAR THE LK MI SHORE FM LATE            
TNGT INTO SAT MRNG BEFORE THE SFC LO/ISENTROPIC LIFT TRACKS TO THE              
NE AND A WEAK RDG AXIS MOVES OVHD IN ITS WAKE. 1-2G/KG SPECIFIC                 
HUMIDITY NOTED IN THE H7-75 LYR...SO EXPECT AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF              
SN TO FALL DURING THE 9 HR PD OF PCPN IN THIS AREA. EXPECT LTL SN TO            
THE NW WITH RDG AXIS BTWN LO PRES AREA AND APRCHG COLD FNT                      
ASSOCIATED WITH BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV.                                        
ON SAT AFTN...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF                 
BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV AND ARCTIC FNT...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO REACH               
IWD JUST ARND 19Z AND THEN P53-ESC ARND 00Z. SHARP PRES RISE/CAD                
BEHIND THE BNDRY IN CONCERT WITH 45KT WINDS IN THE MIXED LYR WHERE              
LAPSE RATES WL BE ENHANCED BY THE STRONG CAD SUG SUBSTANTIAL MIXING             
TO THE SFC...SO LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS/BLSN TO DVLP QUICKLY AFT FROPA             
AS TEMPS FALL. ATMOSPHERE WL BE RATHER DRY (PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH)...SO            
A WHOLE LOT OF SN NOT ON TAP WITH QUICK MOVING FNT EVEN THOUGH                  
VIGOROUS 12Z HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW WL TEND              
TO SQUEEZE OUT THE MEAGER MSTR AVBL. THERE WL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT               
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W...WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES WL LIKELY             
FALL BEFORE 24Z.                                                                
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                              
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST NORTH OF SAULT STE MARIE SATURDAY EVENING              
LEAVING 25-30MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN UPR MI AND LK                 
SUPERIOR. STRONG BURST OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WINDS IN                
WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT (AIDED BY 10MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE) SHOULD                   
SWEEP INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY LATE EVENING. AFTERWARD...STRONG                  
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT ARE A FUNCTION OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT               
MAINTAINING THROUGH 12Z SUN. H95-H85 WINDS FM WEST TO NORTHWEST                 
ALLOW MOST CONCENTRATED CONVERGENCE AND LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO               
MOVE INTO ONTONAGON TO BEGIN THE EVENING AND IN THE SNOWBELTS EAST              
OF MUNISING AFTER LATE SAT EVENING. H85 TEMPS LOWERING BLO -20C IN              
THE MIXED LAYER LEAD TO VERY SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE WHICH WON`T BE                
SUITABLE FOR LARGE ACCUMS...BUT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT IN YIELDING              
SEVERELY REDUCED VSBY OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY             
AND IN ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTIES IN THE NE CWA. A CONCERN ON                  
KEWEENAW IS A MORE WNW WIND DIRECTION WHICH MAY SHUT OFF THE MORE               
CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF CALUMET AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE              
OF SNOW/WIND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO SHADOW FM ISLE ROYALE.               
AREAS WHERE THE MAX LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE -12C TO -18C (BETTER SNOW            
GROWTH) LAYER ALSO INDICATE THIS TREND WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OVR                  
ONTONAGON AND ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES.                                              
SINCE AM NOT QUITE SURE HOW KEWEENAW COUNTY WILL WORK OUT AFTER THE             
EVENING FOR THE MEETING OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OPT TO KEEP                 
BLIZZARD WATCH GOING. PREVIOUS SET TIMES FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCHES               
LOOKED FINE. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND              
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT ZONES DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING THE LK EFFECT            
SNOW BANDS FARTHER INLAND/SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND VERY LOW WIND            
CHILLS. SPEAKING OF THE WIND CHILLS ADDED MENOMINEE AND DELTA INTO              
THE GOING WIND CHILL WATCH. EVENTUALLY SOME TYPE OF HEADLINE...BE IT            
WIND CHILL ADVY OR WINTER WEATHER ADVY (SNOW/BLSN/WIND CHILL COMBO)...          
WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT                
INTO SUNDAY.                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC BY LATE SUNDAY WITH LK EFFECT             
SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW DIMINISHING OVER THE NW SNOW BELTS BY                
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FM THE NW               
WINDS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTIAL                 
CLEARING AND PLUMMETING TEMPS OVR WEST INTERIOR. FOLLOWING HPC                  
PREFERENCE OF ECMWF IN THE UPCOMING WEEK RESULTS IN WEAK LOW                    
PRESSURE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING GREAT LAKES MON-TUE. HIGHEST            
CHANCES IN THE CWA APPEAR OVR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ANOTHER LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION ON THU. GFS MORE EMPHATIC IN                 
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY LATE WEEK BUT ECMWF NOT AS               
AMPLIFIED. CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED NOT HIGH AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT             
DISAGREEMENTS BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES NOT POINTING TO              
ANY ONE DIRECTION EITHER. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO/HPC                                  
GUIDANCE ARE PREFERRED FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE NIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF            
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE              
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD...VIS SHOULD               
NOT DROP BLO MVFR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP SAT MORNING AS SW WINDS             
AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                
(WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT OVER MN RIGHT NOW) INTO THE AREA.             
STRONG/SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSING THRU KCMX LATE IN THE AFTN               
WILL BRING A RAPID FALL TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SN/BLSN. VLIFR                   
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WELL BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD INTO SUN                 
MORNING.                                                                        
AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR BY LATE                     
EVENING...THEN IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT S                
FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST GRADUALLY                
DRAWS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATER IN               
THE NIGHT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SN WITH IFR VIS/CIGS PREDOMINATING.             
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTN...BUT DO NOT             
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR. STRONG/SHARP ARCTIC COLD               
FRONT ARRIVING LATE AFTN WILL DROP VIS TO IFR IN A PERIOD OF -SN.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT NW GALES TO DVLP OVER WRN LK SUP BEHIND STRONG COLD FNT ON               
SAT AFTN AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE LK BY EARLY EVNG. STORM                 
FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATER SAT NGT/EARLY SUN IN             
SHARP CYC NW FLOW BEHIND DEEP LO PRES MOVING INTO SE CAN BEFORE LO              
MOVES QUICKLY AWAY AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS SUN AFTN. RELATIVELY              
LGT WINDS WL PREVAIL MON THRU WED WITH NEXT DEEPER LO FCST TO TRACK             
WELL TO THE S EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON            
     FOR MIZ001>003.                                                            
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ009>013.                                                  
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR MIZ085.                                                                
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ084.                                                      
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR            
     MIZ006-007.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.             
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266.             
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-             
     265.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LSZ162-263.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
630 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER                   
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF AN                
AREAS OF LGT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL                    
IMPULSE WILL TAPER OFF AT FNT/MBS BY 02Z...BRINGING VISIBILITY                  
BACK INTO VFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENING. WEAK WARM AIR                    
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL HELP SPREAD ANOTHER                   
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY/MID                   
MORNING HOURS. STRONG LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...               
AND THUS EXPECT VISIBILITY TO HOLD AT MVFR DURING THIS TIME.                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND AN              
INITIAL COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                             
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                         
VERY LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN                 
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT LOCATION ACROSS THE TRI                  
CITIES AND THUMB. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT ALONG               
LEADING THETA E BUBBLE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THE RUC HAS A              
GREAT HANDLE ON. KDTX RADAR IS GIVING THE DRIZZLE LOOK BEHIND THIS              
SNOW ACTIVITY AND EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE WITH THE SATURATED                 
LOWER TROPOSPHERE. HAVE CUT THE POPS THIS EVENING BACK DOWN TO                  
CHANCE AS METARS HAVE BEEN COMING IN ONLY A TRACE. DESPITE                      
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH BELOW FREEZING...NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGE                   
HEADACHES DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS AREA ROADWAYS SHOULD BE HEAVILY            
TREATED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY HOLD STEADY JUST UNDER THE              
FREEZING MARK.                                                                  
DESPITE WEAK CONTINUED WARMING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS BULLISH ON ALL               
SNOW MENTION LATER TONIGHT IN THE BUFFER SOUNDINGS AND IN AGREEMENT             
WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN RESIDENCE NORTH OF THE IOWAN SURFACE             
REFLECTION.  TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THE            
OTHER OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN                   
QUASI-CONFLUENT FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN A SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM                  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTWARD TO FRANKFORT MICHIGAN BY THE END             
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
AM FAIRLY IMPRESSED WITH THE THERMODYNAMICS OVERNIGHT AS LOW STATIC             
STABILITY EXISTS FROM 900MB UPWARD.  GIVEN MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC             
ENVIRONMENT...FEEL THERE ARE NO NEGATIVE ISSUES REGARDING MOISTURE.             
ON THE OTHER HAND...SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY                          
LACKLUSTER...GIVEN RAGGED APPEARANCE TO MIDLEVEL VORTS...LACK OF ANY            
OBVIOUS JET DYNAMICS...AND WEAK MODELED FRONTOGENESIS.  SO IT                   
APPEARS...FORCING FOR SNOW WILL BE TIED STRICTLY TO 285K ISENTROPIC             
LIFT/WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH THE A LACK OF AN                         
INVERSION...AN EXPECTED SATURATED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH 400MB...THERE              
IS A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 1 TO 2              
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR EVERYONE WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS                
(BEST BET UP NORTH CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW).  HAVE SLOWED THE                     
ONSET...AFTER 6Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY FROM 9-12Z.                       
DID DROP LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS WET BULB PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW            
A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOWS MOVE IN...AT OR JUST               
UNDER 30 DEGREES.                                                               
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE             
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR POISED TO INFILTRATE THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY                
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY                
COLD WIND CHILLS. THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS             
STILL FORECAST TO RACE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY                 
EVENING PER 12Z MODEL SUITE AND DEVELOP INTO A CUT OFF CIRCULATION              
BY SUN MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN                
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY...THEN MERGE WITH THE SURFACE               
LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE             
RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD END THE SNOWFALL BY LATE                    
SATURDAY MORNING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE HOWEVER              
WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT SATURDAY EVENING...LIKELY LEADING TO            
BRIEF YET INTENSE BURST OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.                                
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF            
THE STATE WILL QUICKLY RACE ACROSS SE MI SATURDAY EVENING. THE 12Z              
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA.                
THIS AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY GET ADVECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY            
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS ARE STILL             
FORECAST TO DROP FROM AROUND -8C 00Z SUN TO AROUND -25C BY 12Z SUN.             
A DECENT ISALLOBARIC COUPLET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE FRONT                   
THROUGH THE STATE SAT EVENING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF POTENTIAL                
TEMPERATURE AND OMEGA INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD                    
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITHIN STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE EARLY SUNDAY              
MORNING...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 45            
KNOT WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THUS WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50              
MPH SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC                  
AIRMASS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY                        
MORNING...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE             
TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL                    
READINGS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT THERE            
WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY HOWEVER NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT A            
HAZARD GIVEN THE HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.                           
THE UPPER LOW AND ARCTIC AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED IN              
THIS FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE             
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD STILL HOWEVER ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BELOW              
ZERO IN MANY PLACES BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING EARLY NEXT             
WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT              
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT WAVE FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS               
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ALL               
DEPICT SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY            
NIGHT. FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME            
MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS. THUS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF              
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS STAGE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN             
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND CANADIAN             
ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TUESDAY. GIVEN THE            
UPPER AIR PATTERN...PREFER THE MORE SOUTHERLY ECMWF TRACK...WHICH               
KEEPS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN THE COLDER AIR...INDICATING ANY                 
LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE             
TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN THE WAKE             
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE IMPENDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT             
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF              
LAKE HURON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.                
VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH A              
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY APPROACH             
45 KNOTS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. IF CURRENT                 
MODEL TRENDS HOLD...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNINGS              
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC                 
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-         
     LHZ464...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                
     GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-           
     LHZ443-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM                   
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....MR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....SC                                                                 
MARINE.......SC                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELTS SATURDAY            
EVENING INTO SUNDAY...                                                          
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACRS             
NAMERICA WITH TROFFING IN THE ARCTIC AND POLAR BRANCHES CENTERED                
NEAR HUDSON BAY/THE MS RIVER VALLEY. POLAR BRANCH SHRTWV NOTED                  
MOVING INTO WI SUPPORTING AN AREA OF -SN FM CNTRL MN INTO NW WI                 
WHERE MOIST 12Z MPX SDNG SUGS ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED ENUF TO                   
SUPPORT PCPN. EARLIER TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW SHOWED A VERY DRY LYR BTWN             
H9-7...SO LTL GOING ON LOCALLY WITH WEAK RDG OVHD...JUST SOME MID               
AND HI CLD NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW. FARTHER                  
UPSTREAM...A MORE POTENT SHRTWV NOTED DIGGING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.            
H3 WIND SPEEDS APRCHG 150KT NOTED WITHIN UPR JET CORE ACCOMPANYING              
THIS SYS AND ORIENTED ALG SHARP GRADIENT OF H3 HGT RISES.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TNGT IS POTENTIAL SN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV               
NOW DRIFTING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST. FOCUS FOR SAT SHIFTS TO TIMING/              
IMPACT OF POTENT SHRTWV NOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...SPECIFICALLY                
SN/AND ONSET OF POTENTIALLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE W.            
FOR TNGT INTO SAT MRNG...LO PRES OVER THE UPR MIDWEST FCST TO DRIFT             
INTO NRN LK MI BY 12Z SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING ON THE                    
280-285K SFCS (H65-8) FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA              
IN ADVANCE OF THIS LO. SINCE THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MOISTENING OFF              
LI MI...OPTED TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY NEAR THE LK MI SHORE FM LATE            
TNGT INTO SAT MRNG BEFORE THE SFC LO/ISENTROPIC LIFT TRACKS TO THE              
NE AND A WEAK RDG AXIS MOVES OVHD IN ITS WAKE. 1-2G/KG SPECIFIC                 
HUMIDITY NOTED IN THE H7-75 LYR...SO EXPECT AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF              
SN TO FALL DURING THE 9 HR PD OF PCPN IN THIS AREA. EXPECT LTL SN TO            
THE NW WITH RDG AXIS BTWN LO PRES AREA AND APRCHG COLD FNT                      
ASSOCIATED WITH BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV.                                        
ON SAT AFTN...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF                 
BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV AND ARCTIC FNT...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO REACH               
IWD JUST ARND 19Z AND THEN P53-ESC ARND 00Z. SHARP PRES RISE/CAD                
BEHIND THE BNDRY IN CONCERT WITH 45KT WINDS IN THE MIXED LYR WHERE              
LAPSE RATES WL BE ENHANCED BY THE STRONG CAD SUG SUBSTANTIAL MIXING             
TO THE SFC...SO LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS/BLSN TO DVLP QUICKLY AFT FROPA             
AS TEMPS FALL. ATMOSPHERE WL BE RATHER DRY (PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH)...SO            
A WHOLE LOT OF SN NOT ON TAP WITH QUICK MOVING FNT EVEN THOUGH                  
VIGOROUS 12Z HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW WL TEND              
TO SQUEEZE OUT THE MEAGER MSTR AVBL. THERE WL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT               
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W...WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES WL LIKELY             
FALL BEFORE 24Z.                                                                
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                              
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST NORTH OF SAULT STE MARIE SATURDAY EVENING              
LEAVING 25-30MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN UPR MI AND LK                 
SUPERIOR. STRONG BURST OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WINDS IN                
WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT (AIDED BY 10MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE) SHOULD                   
SWEEP INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY LATE EVENING. AFTERWARD...STRONG                  
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT ARE A FUNCTION OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT               
MAINTAINING THROUGH 12Z SUN. H95-H85 WINDS FM WEST TO NORTHWEST                 
ALLOW MOST CONCENTRATED CONVERGENCE AND LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO               
MOVE INTO ONTONAGON TO BEGIN THE EVENING AND IN THE SNOWBELTS EAST              
OF MUNISING AFTER LATE SAT EVENING. H85 TEMPS LOWERING BLO -20C IN              
THE MIXED LAYER LEAD TO VERY SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE WHICH WON`T BE                
SUITABLE FOR LARGE ACCUMS...BUT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT IN YIELDING              
SEVERELY REDUCED VSBY OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY             
AND IN ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTIES IN THE NE CWA. A CONCERN ON                  
KEWEENAW IS A MORE WNW WIND DIRECTION WHICH MAY SHUT OFF THE MORE               
CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF CALUMET AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE              
OF SNOW/WIND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO SHADOW FM ISLE ROYALE.               
AREAS WHERE THE MAX LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE -12C TO -18C (BETTER SNOW            
GROWTH) LAYER ALSO INDICATE THIS TREND WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OVR                  
ONTONAGON AND ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES.                                              
SINCE AM NOT QUITE SURE HOW KEWEENAW COUNTY WILL WORK OUT AFTER THE             
EVENING FOR THE MEETING OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OPT TO KEEP                 
BLIZZARD WATCH GOING. PREVIOUS SET TIMES FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCHES               
LOOKED FINE. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND              
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT ZONES DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING THE LK EFFECT            
SNOW BANDS FARTHER INLAND/SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND VERY LOW WIND            
CHILLS. SPEAKING OF THE WIND CHILLS ADDED MENOMINEE AND DELTA INTO              
THE GOING WIND CHILL WATCH. EVENTUALLY SOME TYPE OF HEADLINE...BE IT            
WIND CHILL ADVY OR WINTER WEATHER ADVY (SNOW/BLSN/WIND CHILL COMBO)...          
WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT                
INTO SUNDAY.                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC BY LATE SUNDAY WITH LK EFFECT             
SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW DIMINISHING OVER THE NW SNOW BELTS BY                
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FM THE NW               
WINDS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTIAL                 
CLEARING AND PLUMMETING TEMPS OVR WEST INTERIOR. FOLLOWING HPC                  
PREFERENCE OF ECMWF IN THE UPCOMING WEEK RESULTS IN WEAK LOW                    
PRESSURE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING GREAT LAKES MON-TUE. HIGHEST            
CHANCES IN THE CWA APPEAR OVR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ANOTHER LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION ON THU. GFS MORE EMPHATIC IN                 
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY LATE WEEK BUT ECMWF NOT AS               
AMPLIFIED. CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED NOT HIGH AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT             
DISAGREEMENTS BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES NOT POINTING TO              
ANY ONE DIRECTION EITHER. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO/HPC                                  
GUIDANCE ARE PREFERRED FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT SAW TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBY TNGT             
AS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LO MOVING THRU THE UPR                 
MIDWEST GRADUALLY DRAWS MORE MSTR INTO THE AREA. AS THE LO APRCHS               
LATER TNGT...EXPECT A PD OF LGT SN WITH IFR VSBY/CIGS PREDOMINATING.            
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE A BIT ON SAT MRNG...BUT LACK OF SGNFT DRYING              
IN THE WAKE OF SFC LO SUGS LO CLDS/SOME FOG WL LINGER.                          
AT CMX...MORE IMPRESSIVE LLVL MOISTENING APPEARS WL SLIDE TO THE                
E...SO LO CLD THERE SHOULD BE MORE TRANSIENT THRU TNGT WITH VFR CIGS            
PREDOMINATING EVEN IF MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR FM TIME TO TIME.                   
ALTHOUGH FOG IS LIKELY THERE TNGT...LACK OF LLVL MOISTENING WITH LO/            
PCPN SHIELD STAYING TO THE SE AS WELL AS MID CLD DECK SHOULD PREVENT            
VSBY FM DROPPING TOO FAR.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT NW GALES TO DVLP OVER WRN LK SUP BEHIND STRONG COLD FNT ON               
SAT AFTN AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE LK BY EARLY EVNG. STORM                 
FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATER SAT NGT/EARLY SUN IN             
SHARP CYC NW FLOW BEHIND DEEP LO PRES MOVING INTO SE CAN BEFORE LO              
MOVES QUICKLY AWAY AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS SUN AFTN. RELATIVELY              
LGT WINDS WL PREVAIL MON THRU WED WITH NEXT DEEPER LO FCST TO TRACK             
WELL TO THE S EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON            
     FOR MIZ001>003.                                                            
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ009>013.                                                  
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR MIZ085.                                                                
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ084.                                                      
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR            
     MIZ006-007.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.             
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266.             
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-             
     265.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LSZ162-263.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
348 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                        
VERY LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN                 
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT LOCATION ACROSS THE TRI                  
CITIES AND THUMB. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT ALONG               
LEADING THETA E BUBBLE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THE RUC HAS A              
GREAT HANDLE ON. KDTX RADAR IS GIVING THE DRIZZLE LOOK BEHIND THIS              
SNOW ACTIVITY AND EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE WITH THE SATURATED                 
LOWER TROPOSPHERE. HAVE CUT THE POPS THIS EVENING BACK DOWN TO                  
CHANCE AS METARS HAVE BEEN COMING IN ONLY A TRACE. DESPITE                      
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH BELOW FREEZING...NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGE                   
HEADACHES DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS AREA ROADWAYS SHOULD BE HEAVILY            
TREATED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY HOLD STEADY JUST UNDER THE              
FREEZING MARK.                                                                  
DESPITE WEAK CONTINUED WARMING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS BULLISH ON ALL               
SNOW MENTION LATER TONIGHT IN THE BUFFER SOUNDINGS AND IN AGREEMENT             
WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN RESIDENCE NORTH OF THE IOWAN SURFACE             
REFLECTION.  TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THE            
OTHER OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN                   
QUASI-CONFLUENT FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN A SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM                  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTWARD TO FRANKFORT MICHIGAN BY THE END             
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
AM FAIRLY IMPRESSED WITH THE THERMODYNAMICS OVERNIGHT AS LOW STATIC             
STABILITY EXISTS FROM 900MB UPWARD.  GIVEN MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC             
ENVIRONMENT...FEEL THERE ARE NO NEGATIVE ISSUES REGARDING MOISTURE.             
ON THE OTHER HAND...SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY                          
LACKLUSTER...GIVEN RAGGED APPEARANCE TO MIDLEVEL VORTS...LACK OF ANY            
OBVIOUS JET DYNAMICS...AND WEAK MODELED FRONTOGENESIS.  SO IT                   
APPEARS...FORCING FOR SNOW WILL BE TIED STRICTLY TO 285K ISENTROPIC             
LIFT/WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH THE A LACK OF AN                         
INVERSION...AN EXPECTED SATURATED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH 400MB...THERE              
IS A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 1 TO 2              
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR EVERYONE WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS                
(BEST BET UP NORTH CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW).  HAVE SLOWED THE                     
ONSET...AFTER 6Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY FROM 9-12Z.                       
DID DROP LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS WET BULB PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW            
A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOWS MOVE IN...AT OR JUST               
UNDER 30 DEGREES.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                            
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE             
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR POISED TO INFILTRATE THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY                
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY                
COLD WIND CHILLS. THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS             
STILL FORECAST TO RACE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY                 
EVENING PER 12Z MODEL SUITE AND DEVELOP INTO A CUT OFF CIRCULATION              
BY SUN MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN                
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY...THEN MERGE WITH THE SURFACE               
LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE             
RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD END THE SNOWFALL BY LATE                    
SATURDAY MORNING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE HOWEVER              
WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT SATURDAY EVENING...LIKELY LEADING TO            
BRIEF YET INTENSE BURST OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.                                
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF            
THE STATE WILL QUICKLY RACE ACROSS SE MI SATURDAY EVENING. THE 12Z              
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA.                
THIS AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY GET ADVECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY            
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS ARE STILL             
FORECAST TO DROP FROM AROUND -8C 00Z SUN TO AROUND -25C BY 12Z SUN.             
A DECENT ISALLOBARIC COUPLET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE FRONT                   
THROUGH THE STATE SAT EVENING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF POTENTIAL                
TEMPERATURE AND OMEGA INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD                    
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITHIN STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE EARLY SUNDAY              
MORNING...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 45            
KNOT WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THUS WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50              
MPH SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC                  
AIRMASS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY                        
MORNING...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE             
TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL                    
READINGS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT THERE            
WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY HOWEVER NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT A            
HAZARD GIVEN THE HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.                           
THE UPPER LOW AND ARCTIC AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED IN              
THIS FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE             
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD STILL HOWEVER ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BELOW              
ZERO IN MANY PLACES BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING EARLY NEXT             
WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT              
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT WAVE FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS               
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ALL               
DEPICT SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY            
NIGHT. FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME            
MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS. THUS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF              
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS STAGE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN             
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND CANADIAN             
ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TUESDAY. GIVEN THE            
UPPER AIR PATTERN...PREFER THE MORE SOUTHERLY ECMWF TRACK...WHICH               
KEEPS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN THE COLDER AIR...INDICATING ANY                 
LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE             
TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN THE WAKE             
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE IMPENDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT             
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF              
LAKE HURON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.                
VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH A              
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY APPROACH             
45 KNOTS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. IF CURRENT                 
MODEL TRENDS HOLD...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNINGS              
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC                 
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1252 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE MOIST PATTERN WILL BRING A COUPLE OF SNOW CHANCES THROUGHOUT                
THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/BR WILL LIFT THROUGH                 
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MVFR                          
VISIBILITIES. THE FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR PREDOMINATELY MVFR                    
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DID TRY TO TIME A VFR                 
TIME PERIOD THIS EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL                
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AFTER 6Z. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE                 
THE 3-4SM MENTION WITH THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TIMING.                
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE               
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-         
     LHZ464...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                
     GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-           
     LHZ443-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM                   
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....SC                                                                 
MARINE.......SC                                                                 
AVIATION.....CB                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1225 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                      
UPDATE AVIATION...                                                              
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELTS THIS                
WEEKEND...                                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD                 
TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS                           
TROUGH...FEATURES TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE A WEAK SHRTWV               
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER UT/CO...AND A            
POTENT SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA NORTH            
OF A 140 KT JET AT 200MB MOVING ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SHRTWV             
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PLAINS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC               
LIFT ON THE 290-300K SURFACES HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH              
CLOUDS OVER MN AND THE DAKOTAS PER IR IMAGERY. BELOW THESE HIGHER               
CLOUDS...11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT LOW STRATUS FROM                   
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NW WI AND MUCH OF MN. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN            
A WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION SETUP AHEAD OF A 100MB LOW OVER THE                   
DAKOTAS...AND BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 900MB SEEN ON THE             
00Z MPX SOUNDING. AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY MILD OVER THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY...WITH                   
READINGS OF -8C AT INL...APX AND MPX. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN STATED              
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND SPS STATEMENTS...THESE READINGS WILL BE             
TAKING A TUMBLE THIS WEEKEND. UPSTREAM JUST NORTH OF THE POTENT                 
BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV...850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW -30S C (SEE 00Z            
CYYE OR FORT NELSON BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUNDING). SURFACE TEMPS THERE             
ALSO REFLECT THE COLD AIR...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW              
ZERO. UP IN THE YUKON...MAYO (SITE CYMA) IS REPORTING -60F! SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 997MB SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENT                
SHRTWV JUST TO THE WEST OF EDMONTON ALBERTA...WITH 1030MB HIGH                  
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH WINDS...TEMPS AND POTENTIAL BLIZZARD              
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.                                                        
TODAY...NORTHERN PLAINS SHRTWV TROUGH AND THE OTHER SHRTWV TROUGH IN            
UT/CO WILL SORT OF CONSOLIDATE AS THEY DROP DOWN INTO THE MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z. THIS MEANS MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS FOR                  
PRODUCING PCPN WILL STAY AWAY FROM HERE...AND THUS A DRY FORECAST IS            
INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE            
TO THE EAST AS THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST. IN                      
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS SITUATED TO OUR SW WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA               
THIS MORNING AS 925-950MB WINDS SHIFT TO THE S TO SW. THE INCREASE              
IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING              
TOO HIGH...BUT GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S SEEM                     
REASONABLE GIVEN READINGS TO OUR SW AND SLOW DAYTIME HEATING.                   
TONIGHT...THE CONSOLIDATED SHRTWV TROUGH OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI               
VALLEY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN SOME            
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CWA. WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING...                   
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING...WOULD EXPECT THAT A LITTLE SNOW WILL            
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS SEEN ON 00Z               
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS SUGGESTS ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE               
LIGHT SIDE. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH               
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP...AND THUS STAYED ON THE HIGH END OF                    
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE TO OUR NW...THE POTENT BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV              
IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z SAT...WITH A              
996MB LOW MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AND THE ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED SOUTH              
THROUGH MPX.                                                                    
SAT...POTENT SHRTWV TROUGH APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BECOME A LITTLE                
STRONGER DURING THIS DAY AS IT BEGINS A SOUTHEASTWARD APPROACH                  
TOWARDS THE CWA...WITH MODELS ALL SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A                  
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NW ONTARIO AT 500MB. MORE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW            
IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS FROM THIS DEEPENING SHRTWV TROUGH.              
AS FAR AS THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR...MODELS REMAIN PRETTY                     
CONSISTENT BOTH WITHIN THEMSELVES AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...WITH ONLY            
VERY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES (I.E. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE DRIVING COLD AIR              
IN COMPARED TO THE NAM/UKMET). AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS                  
NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARDS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE                 
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS TREK ACROSS THE CWA. A                     
CONVERGENT SNOW BAND SEEMS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT                
CROSSES WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN U.P..                 
850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW -10S C SUGGESTS THAT GOOD DENDRITE PRODUCTION            
WILL OCCUR...MEANING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. THE                
BAND WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.P.. WIND FLOW               
TURNING WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP               
ANY LES OUT OF THE NE CWA...EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE                
FROM GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT. WEST WINDS ARE GOOD FOR THE               
KEWEENAW...AND UNTIL THE FULL ARCTIC AIR COMES IN (NOT INDICATED                
UNTIL SAT NIGHT)...DENDRITE PRODUCTION FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL               
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE WEST WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG...AIDED BY RAPID            
PRESSURE RISES...WHICH MEANS THE DENDRITES WILL BREAK APART AND THUS            
CREATING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING SNOW TO             
WATER RATIOS. THE STRONG WIND WILL HELP TO BLOW WESTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT BANDS FARTHER INLAND...LIKELY RIGHT ACROSS                 
MARQUETTE COUNTY. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG WESTERLY WIND DRIVING IN            
COLDER AIR MEANS A FALLING TEMPERATURE SETUP... ESPECIALLY IN THE               
AFTERNOON. IWD TEMP COULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY 00Z. THE               
BLUSTERY WIND WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL WORSE AS WIND CHILLS DROP.              
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...ARCTIC AIRMASS POURS INTO THE CWA. ALL MODELS              
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THE CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER MOVING             
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SAT NIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LOW                 
CENTER...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE -25 TO -30C RANGE             
BY 12Z SUN ON STIFF NW WINDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS A SURE            
BET...AND MOST AREAS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER LOOK VERY GOOD FOR              
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA AS WNW WINDS DRAG COLD AIR IN FROM MN AND             
NW WI. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL WATCHES FOR THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES            
OF GOGEBIC...IRON AND DICKINSON. CONTEMPLATED MENOMINEE...BUT                   
DOWNSLOPING NW WIND KEEPS THE COUNTY WARMER (NOTED IN MOS GUIDANCE)             
AND THUS HAVE HELD OFF AT THIS POINT. HAVE FOLLOWED LOWER GUIDANCE              
VALUES FOR TEMPS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN SINCE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS             
MOVING IN SO QUICK THAT IT MAY NOT HAVE TIME TO MODIFY. IN ADDITION             
TO THE COLD...THE NEXT CONCERNS ARE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW. ALTHOUGH             
THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...IT DOES COME               
BACK INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET BY 12Z SUN...BOTH WITH THE             
TRACK AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. EVEN THE WIND FIELDS LOOK SIMILAR.                
HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT THE LOW TRACK MIGHT BE OFF IN ALL MODELS            
AS THE SETUP WITH THE UPPER LOW SUGGESTS A MORE LIKELY SFC LOW TRACK            
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO SHORELINE. IN FACT...BOTH THE 00Z               
REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 03Z RUC 13 FROM ESRL INDICATE THIS TRACK.                 
GUSTS FROM THE 03Z RUC 13 SHOW AT 03Z SUN OF 35-40 KT OVER MUCH OF              
UPPER MI...WITH A CORRIDOR OF 50 KT NEAR PICTURED ROCKS. SINCE THE              
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40-45 KT AND THERE IS             
NO PROBLEM MIXING THIS DOWN GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR...THE BLIZZARD WIND            
SPEED CRITERIA IS EASILY MET. SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS IN BOTH THE                
KEWEENAW AND EASTERN U.P. DEPICT A PROFILE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A LOT             
OF FINE SNOWFLAKES FROM THE LAKE EFFECT. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND...               
WOULD IMAGINE THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED...VERY                  
SIMILAR TO THE PAST BLIZZARD EVENT. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE THE             
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. INCLUDED ONTONAGON COUNTY...            
AND ALGER INTO LUCE COUNTIES BASED ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/RUC 13                  
OUTPUT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WEATHER OR WIND             
CHILL ADVISORIES...BUT THOSE ARE USUALLY ISSUED CLOSER TO THE                   
EVENT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS            
RELAX DUE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS HEADING EAST TOWARDS QUEBEC.            
SUN NIGHT INTO MON....ECMWF/GFS/UKMET BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH            
REGARDS TO HOW QUICK THE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE EAST EJECTS UP TOWARDS            
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GFS/UKMET ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH ALLOWS FLOW            
TO TURN ZONAL OVER THE CWA...AND THUS BRINGS MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN            
DURING THIS PERIOD AND WARMER AIR COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT              
WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...WHICH ALLOWS TEMPS TO REALLY COOL OFF               
SUN NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...SOME INLAND LOCATIONS WILL                 
LIKELY DROP TO 20 BELOW ZERO AS THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH CURRENTLY OVER              
THE YUKON SITS OVERHEAD. NORTHWEST WINDS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF                
LAKE EFFECT...BUT WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS            
APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN THOSE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN (THOUGH EVEN                
THOSE ARE NOT TOO MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT GIVEN THE SMALL SNOWFLAKE            
SIZE). INCREASING CLOUDS SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY FROM BOTH               
MODELS...THOUGH. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AND KEPT IN THE LOW              
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE EVENT THE GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT SAW TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBY TNGT             
AS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LO MOVING THRU THE UPR                 
MIDWEST GRADUALLY DRAWS MORE MSTR INTO THE AREA. AS THE LO APRCHS               
LATER TNGT...EXPECT A PD OF LGT SN WITH IFR VSBY/CIGS PREDOMINATING.            
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE A BIT ON SAT MRNG...BUT LACK OF SGNFT DRYING              
IN THE WAKE OF SFC LO SUGS LO CLDS/SOME FOG WL LINGER.                          
AT CMX...MORE IMPRESSIVE LLVL MOISTENING APPEARS WL SLIDE TO THE                
E...SO LO CLD THERE SHOULD BE MORE TRANSIENT THRU TNGT WITH VFR CIGS            
PREDOMINATING EVEN IF MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR FM TIME TO TIME.                   
ALTHOUGH FOG IS LIKELY THERE TNGT...LACK OF LLVL MOISTENING WITH LO/            
PCPN SHIELD STAYING TO THE SE AS WELL AS MID CLD DECK SHOULD PREVENT            
VSBY FM DROPPING TOO FAR.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTHWEST GALES STILL ON TRACK TO SPREAD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT                 
SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STORM FORCE WINDS COULD ALSO               
OCCUR...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW.                 
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING              
EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HELPS WEAKEN THE                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR               
     MIZ006-007.                                                                
  BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON               
     FOR MIZ001>003.                                                            
  WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING              
     FOR MIZ009>011.                                                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
432 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELTS THIS                
WEEKEND...                                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD                 
TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. WITHIN THIS                           
TROUGH...FEATURES TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE A WEAK SHRTWV               
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER UT/CO...AND A            
POTENT SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA NORTH            
OF A 140 KT JET AT 200MB MOVING ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SHRTWV             
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PLAINS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC               
LIFT ON THE 290-300K SURFACES HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH              
CLOUDS OVER MN AND THE DAKOTAS PER IR IMAGERY. BELOW THESE HIGHER               
CLOUDS...11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT LOW STRATUS FROM                   
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NW WI AND MUCH OF MN. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN            
A WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION SETUP AHEAD OF A 100MB LOW OVER THE                   
DAKOTAS...AND BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 900MB SEEN ON THE             
00Z MPX SOUNDING. AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY MILD OVER THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY...WITH                   
READINGS OF -8C AT INL...APX AND MPX. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN STATED              
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND SPS STATEMENTS...THESE READINGS WILL BE             
TAKING A TUMBLE THIS WEEKEND. UPSTREAM JUST NORTH OF THE POTENT                 
BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV...850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW -30S C (SEE 00Z            
CYYE OR FORT NELSON BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUNDING). SURFACE TEMPS THERE             
ALSO REFLECT THE COLD AIR...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW              
ZERO. UP IN THE YUKON...MAYO (SITE CYMA) IS REPORTING -60F! SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 997MB SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENT                
SHRTWV JUST TO THE WEST OF EDMONTON ALBERTA...WITH 1030MB HIGH                  
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH WINDS...TEMPS AND POTENTIAL BLIZZARD              
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.                                                        
TODAY...NORTHERN PLAINS SHRTWV TROUGH AND THE OTHER SHRTWV TROUGH IN            
UT/CO WILL SORT OF CONSOLIDATE AS THEY DROP DOWN INTO THE MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z. THIS MEANS MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS FOR                  
PRODUCING PCPN WILL STAY AWAY FROM HERE...AND THUS A DRY FORECAST IS            
INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE            
TO THE EAST AS THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST. IN                      
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS SITUATED TO OUR SW WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA               
THIS MORNING AS 925-950MB WINDS SHIFT TO THE S TO SW. THE INCREASE              
IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING              
TOO HIGH...BUT GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S SEEM                     
REASONABLE GIVEN READINGS TO OUR SW AND SLOW DAYTIME HEATING.                   
TONIGHT...THE CONSOLIDATED SHRTWV TROUGH OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI               
VALLEY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN SOME            
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CWA. WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING...                   
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING...WOULD EXPECT THAT A LITTLE SNOW WILL            
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS SEEN ON 00Z               
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS SUGGESTS ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE               
LIGHT SIDE. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH               
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP...AND THUS STAYED ON THE HIGH END OF                    
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE TO OUR NW...THE POTENT BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV              
IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z SAT...WITH A              
996MB LOW MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AND THE ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED SOUTH              
THROUGH MPX.                                                                    
SAT...POTENT SHRTWV TROUGH APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BECOME A LITTLE                
STRONGER DURING THIS DAY AS IT BEGINS A SOUTHEASTWARD APPROACH                  
TOWARDS THE CWA...WITH MODELS ALL SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A                  
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NW ONTARIO AT 500MB. MORE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW            
IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS FROM THIS DEEPENING SHRTWV TROUGH.              
AS FAR AS THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR...MODELS REMAIN PRETTY                     
CONSISTENT BOTH WITHIN THEMSELVES AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...WITH ONLY            
VERY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES (I.E. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE DRIVING COLD AIR              
IN COMPARED TO THE NAM/UKMET). AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS                  
NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARDS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE                 
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS TREK ACROSS THE CWA. A                     
CONVERGENT SNOW BAND SEEMS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT                
CROSSES WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN U.P..                 
850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW -10S C SUGGESTS THAT GOOD DENDRITE PRODUCTION            
WILL OCCUR...MEANING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. THE                
BAND WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.P.. WIND FLOW               
TURNING WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP               
ANY LES OUT OF THE NE CWA...EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE                
FROM GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT. WEST WINDS ARE GOOD FOR THE               
KEWEENAW...AND UNTIL THE FULL ARCTIC AIR COMES IN (NOT INDICATED                
UNTIL SAT NIGHT)...DENDRITE PRODUCTION FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL               
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE WEST WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG...AIDED BY RAPID            
PRESSURE RISES...WHICH MEANS THE DENDRITES WILL BREAK APART AND THUS            
CREATING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING SNOW TO             
WATER RATIOS. THE STRONG WIND WILL HELP TO BLOW WESTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT BANDS FARTHER INLAND...LIKELY RIGHT ACROSS                 
MARQUETTE COUNTY. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG WESTERLY WIND DRIVING IN            
COLDER AIR MEANS A FALLING TEMPERATURE SETUP... ESPECIALLY IN THE               
AFTERNOON. IWD TEMP COULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY 00Z. THE               
BLUSTERY WIND WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL WORSE AS WIND CHILLS DROP.              
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...ARCTIC AIRMASS POURS INTO THE CWA. ALL MODELS              
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THE CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER MOVING             
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SAT NIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LOW                 
CENTER...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE -25 TO -30C RANGE             
BY 12Z SUN ON STIFF NW WINDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS A SURE            
BET...AND MOST AREAS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER LOOK VERY GOOD FOR              
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA AS WNW WINDS DRAG COLD AIR IN FROM MN AND             
NW WI. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL WATCHES FOR THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES            
OF GOGEBIC...IRON AND DICKINSON. CONTEMPLATED MENOMINEE...BUT                   
DOWNSLOPING NW WIND KEEPS THE COUNTY WARMER (NOTED IN MOS GUIDANCE)             
AND THUS HAVE HELD OFF AT THIS POINT. HAVE FOLLOWED LOWER GUIDANCE              
VALUES FOR TEMPS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN SINCE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS             
MOVING IN SO QUICK THAT IT MAY NOT HAVE TIME TO MODIFY. IN ADDITION             
TO THE COLD...THE NEXT CONCERNS ARE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW. ALTHOUGH             
THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...IT DOES COME               
BACK INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET BY 12Z SUN...BOTH WITH THE             
TRACK AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. EVEN THE WIND FIELDS LOOK SIMILAR.                
HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT THE LOW TRACK MIGHT BE OFF IN ALL MODELS            
AS THE SETUP WITH THE UPPER LOW SUGGESTS A MORE LIKELY SFC LOW TRACK            
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO SHORELINE. IN FACT...BOTH THE 00Z               
REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 03Z RUC 13 FROM ESRL INDICATE THIS TRACK.                 
GUSTS FROM THE 03Z RUC 13 SHOW AT 03Z SUN OF 35-40 KT OVER MUCH OF              
UPPER MI...WITH A CORRIDOR OF 50 KT NEAR PICTURED ROCKS. SINCE THE              
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40-45 KT AND THERE IS             
NO PROBLEM MIXING THIS DOWN GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR...THE BLIZZARD WIND            
SPEED CRITERIA IS EASILY MET. SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS IN BOTH THE                
KEWEENAW AND EASTERN U.P. DEPICT A PROFILE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A LOT             
OF FINE SNOWFLAKES FROM THE LAKE EFFECT. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND...               
WOULD IMAGINE THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED...VERY                  
SIMILAR TO THE PAST BLIZZARD EVENT. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE THE             
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. INCLUDED ONTONAGON COUNTY...            
AND ALGER INTO LUCE COUNTIES BASED ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/RUC 13                  
OUTPUT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WEATHER OR WIND             
CHILL ADVISORIES...BUT THOSE ARE USUALLY ISSUED CLOSER TO THE                   
EVENT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS            
RELAX DUE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS HEADING EAST TOWARDS QUEBEC.            
SUN NIGHT INTO MON....ECMWF/GFS/UKMET BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH            
REGARDS TO HOW QUICK THE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE EAST EJECTS UP TOWARDS            
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GFS/UKMET ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH ALLOWS FLOW            
TO TURN ZONAL OVER THE CWA...AND THUS BRINGS MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN            
DURING THIS PERIOD AND WARMER AIR COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT              
WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...WHICH ALLOWS TEMPS TO REALLY COOL OFF               
SUN NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...SOME INLAND LOCATIONS WILL                 
LIKELY DROP TO 20 BELOW ZERO AS THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH CURRENTLY OVER              
THE YUKON SITS OVERHEAD. NORTHWEST WINDS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF                
LAKE EFFECT...BUT WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS            
APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN THOSE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN (THOUGH EVEN                
THOSE ARE NOT TOO MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT GIVEN THE SMALL SNOWFLAKE            
SIZE). INCREASING CLOUDS SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY FROM BOTH               
MODELS...THOUGH. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AND KEPT IN THE LOW              
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE EVENT THE GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...AIRMASS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO RESULT            
IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT UNDER W TO WSW FLOW. LATEST                    
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS NOW BEGINNING              
TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW N OF KCMX.                     
IF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DO NOT FULLY DEVELOP...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS               
FOR SOME RADIATION FOG/STRATUS (MVFR CONDITIONS) TO DEVELOP UNDER               
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT FOR A               
WHILE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN BEFORE CIGS AGAIN FALL TO MVFR AS            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. AT KSAW...                
GENERALLY RETAINED PREVIOUS FCST OF OPTIMISTIC VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL             
FRI AFTN. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME RADIATION FOG/STRATUS                     
DEVELOPMENT (MVFR CONDITIONS) TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A FEW HRS.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTHWEST GALES STILL ON TRACK TO SPREAD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT                 
SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STORM FORCE WINDS COULD ALSO               
OCCUR...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW.                 
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING              
EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HELPS WEAKEN THE                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR               
     MIZ006-007.                                                                
  BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON               
     FOR MIZ001>003.                                                            
  WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING              
     FOR MIZ009>011.                                                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1206 PM EST THU FEB 7 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS DRY AIR                 
INFILTRATES THE REGION. WEAK STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING MVFR OVERCAST             
ALONG WITH A LIGHT SNOW THREAT LATER THURSDAY EVENING.                          
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1038 PM EST WED FEB 06                                         
THINGS PRETTY MUCH UNFOLDING AS PLANNED AS STRONG FGEN AND                      
DEFORMATION DYNAMICS (RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SEVERAL INCHES OF                
SNOW IN WARNED AND ADVISORIES AREAS WITH REPORTS OF 12+ INCHES JUST             
SOUTH OF OUR CWA) BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA AS MID                
LEVEL CIRCULATION PIVOTS OUT OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LATEST RADAR                
TRENDS CONFIRM LOSS OF DYNAMICS WITH STEADILY SHRINKING SNOW SHIELD             
ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR. BASED OFF RADAR EXTRAPOLATION...SNOW SHOULD            
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PULL SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE AREA DURING THE             
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE BEGIN TO TRIM ADVISORY AREA FROM WEST TO              
EAST AND SEE NO REASON REST OF ADVISORY/WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE                
EXTENDED BEYOND 06Z EXPIRATION TIME. FARTHER NORTH...PRONOUNCED LOW             
AND MID LEVEL DRYING MAKING STEADY SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...WITH SKIES              
BECOMING CLEAR OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO                
CONTINUE...WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE                  
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD                
COVER...WITH READINGS ALREADY APPROACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF            
THE BRIDGE. LOWS PUSHING THE MID SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO APPEAR A              
GOOD BET OVER THE TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN            
AND AROUND THE PELLSTON AREA OF NORTHERN LOWER. OTHERWISE...FORECAST            
LOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR REGIONS TO LOW TO MID TEENS ALONG             
COASTAL AREAS APPEARS ON TARGET.                                                
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES/WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS/AND NEARSHORES OUT                  
SHORTLY.                                                                        
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 330 PM EST WED FEB 06                                 
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER TOUGH FCST...WITH THE CHALLENGE TONIGHT BEING             
LINGERING SNOW/AMOUNTS FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES...AND ADDITIONAL                
SMALL PRECIP CHANCES HEADING INTO TOMORROW. EARLY AFTN SUBJECTIVE               
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM...A POTENT CLOSED              
LOW ADVANCING THRU WESTERN IL AS OF 18Z...WITH HIGHLY DIFLUENT FLOW             
REGIME AIDING IN STRONG FORCED ASCENT INTO CENTRAL/LOWER                        
MICHIGAN...AND A SUBSEQUENT RAPID UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE THUS FAR            
TODAY. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN             
AND INTO TONIGHT AS STACKED SYSTEM SLIDES OVER FAR SOUTHERN                     
MI...WITH AN ELONGATION OF 700-500MB DEFORMATION AXIS COUPLED WITH              
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO RATHER STOUT               
TROWAL FEATURE SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.            
TO THE NORTH...PRONOUNCED LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH            
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG ARCTIC HIGH MOVING THRU ONTARIO...AIDED              
BY OVERALL SUBSIDENCE REGIME NORTH OF PRIMARY FORCING. WILL CONTINUE            
THEME OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACRS            
THE M-55 CORRIDOR...AND POTENTIALLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH GIVEN LATEST            
RADAR TRENDS/RUC GUIDANCE...TRANSITIONING TO BASICALLY NOTHING BY               
LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING HEADS EAST AND WEAK SHORTWAVE                           
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS YET TO             
FALL ACRS THE SOUTH...AND AS SUCH WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE WITH                  
HEADLINES AS WOULD THINK ANOTHER 3 TO LOCALLY 7 INCHES OF SNOW A                
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR WARNING               
CRITERIA TO BE MET IN A FEW SPOTS PER OVERALL BANDED LOOK TO                    
UPSTREAM RADARS.                                                                
TEMPS ARE THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT...AS POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY                
THERE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ACRS THE NORTH GIVEN GOOD DRAINAGE FLOW             
SETUP PER PLACEMENT OF BUBBLE HIGH OVR SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. SKY COVER             
REMAINS TRICKY...OWING OBVIOUSLY TO EVENTUAL NORTHWARD EXTENT OF                
PRECIP/LOW CLOUD SHIELD EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUT FEEL IS DRY                
INTRUSION WILL WIN OUT BY 06-09Z TIMEFRAME ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF OF            
THE CWA AS UPPER LOW SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SETTING THE STAGE FOR             
SOME BELOW ZERO NUMBERS IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS (KPLN/KANJ/KCIU).               
A QUIET DAY (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) RETURNS FOR TOMORROW AS WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE RIDGING HOLDS THRU MIDDAY...THOUGH BY AFTN APPEARS NEXT IN            
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIPPLING THRU THE FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WILL              
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE                     
UNIMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER A RETURN TOWARD WEAK WARM ADVECTION BY AFTN              
COUPLED WITH AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEARBY FROM CURRENT                
STORM ARGUES FOR CHANCY TYPE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE WEST.                 
PRIOR TO THAT TIME...EXPECT THE SUN TO MAKE A RELATIVELY RARE                   
FEBRUARY APPEARANCE WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE BEFORE CLDS            
RETURN BY AFTN. THUS TEMPS MAY SEE A JUMP FOR THE MORNING...SUCH                
THAT CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPR 20S LOOK GOOD (THOUGH MAY HAVE             
TO CUT READINGS OVR THE SOUTH PENDING AMOUNT OF FRESH SNOW TONIGHT).            
LAWRENCE                                                                        
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES OFF TO THE              
EAST. BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF THE               
500 MB TROUGH PLUS ASSOCIATED AREA OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER LEVEL                  
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND                   
FRIDAY. OVERALL LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK THRU THE PERIOD. MOISTURE IS            
INITIALLY LACKING...SPECIFICALLY AT MID LEVELS...BUT ENTIRE COLUMN              
DOES EVENTUALLY MOISTEN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SW FLOW LAKE                      
ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT MARGINAL AS 850 MB TEMPS HOLD AROUND              
-10 C (I.E. DELTA T`S AROUND 10 C). WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THRU              
THE PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTING FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL                
ACCUMULATION. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WELL UNDER AN INCH OF NEW SNOW            
FOR BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND AN INCH MAYBE TWO OF NEW               
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT               
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON            
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.                                  
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...VERY ACTIVE "SEE-SAW" TYPE PATTERN                    
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.                  
SURFACE LOW WILL DEPART NRN MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR             
TO STRONG/RAPID CAA SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS                    
DROPPING FROM AROUND -9 C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO -26 C BY 12Z SUNDAY.                 
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL                 
VCNTY ALL OF SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A 36 TO             
48 HR LONG LAKE EFFECT EVENT. PRIMARY LIMITATION WILL BE THE VERY               
COLD TEMPS AS 850 MB TEMPS HOLD IN THE NEGATIVE LOW TO MID 20S THRU             
THE ENTIRE EVENT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY STRONG DURING THE ONSET             
OF CAA (I.E. ON SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT AS IT            
DRAWS CLOSER FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINE ISSUES. COLD AIR BEGINS TO MODIFY            
ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR                          
SOUTH...SERVING MAINLY TO DISRUPT LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES AND BY            
ASSOCIATION... ONGOING LAKE EFFECT EVENT. STRONG WAA IS PROGGED TO              
TAKE PLACE ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF WARMS 850 TEMPS FROM -14 C AT 12Z                
WEDNESDAY TO NEAR +1 C BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE THIS COULD VERY WELL              
BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...IT CERTAINLY POINTS TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT                 
WARM-UP DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (THUS THE "SEE-SAW").               
OUR FIRST DRY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TUESDAY                   
NIGHT...WITH DRY WX CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS WAA COMMENCES.                 
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-               
     344>346.                                                                   
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ347>349.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1144 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 533 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008/                                
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN ON THE ARCTIC SURGE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND              
RESULTANT EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND BLOWING SNOW                    
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
AT PRESENT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE                    
FOREAST AREA...WITH TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED JUST TO THE                  
WEST OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF                 
THE TROUGH HAS LED TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY                
FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.              
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE TROUGH HAS BEEN DETERIORATING               
EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT PUSHES FURTHER EAST TOWARD MINNESOTA...                
DUE TO WEAKENING FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RUC ISENTROPIC                     
ANALYSES SHOW THAT MAIN AREA OF UPLIFT/CONDENSATION PRESSURE                    
DEFICITS MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHERN                       
MINNESOTA...SO HAVE DROPPED PRECIP CHANCES TODAY IN FAVOR OF A                  
MENTION OF FLURRIES. HAVE ALSO INSERTED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN              
THE MORNING IN ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS...EXCEPT IN              
THE WEST AND SOUTH...WHERE A 5 TO 7 DEGREE JUMP APPEARS                         
REASONABLE.                                                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL               
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY. 280/285K ISENTROPIC SURFACES DEPICT                        
BLOSSOMING REGION OF LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND LIFT                
OVER PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE                     
SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.               
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...ALTHOUGH UP TO AN INCH MAY FALL TO THE                     
NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN MINNESOTA AND ACROSS                  
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.                                                         
THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION                
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS VERY CONSISTENT IN THE                 
DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN                           
CANADA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS A                      
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY RACE                         
SOUTHEASTWARD. MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A               
150 KT UPPER JET...WITH A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS              
TO ABOUT 650/700 MB. BOTH THE GFS/NAM DEPICT 6 HOUR SURFACE                     
PRESSURE RISES OF AT LEAST 15 MB BEHIND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.               
ALL OF THIS POINTS TOWARD A VERY WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO                 
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE               
GONE WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS IN THE 30 KT RANGE...WITH 40 TO 45                
KT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE MINNESOTA                  
RIVER VALLEY...AND THE I-90 CORRIDOR.                                           
AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE SNOW                
LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH                     
CHANCES OF SNOW STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST                
AREA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN BLAST OF COLD ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE               
FRONT. IF ANY SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE FROM THE FRIDAY                        
SYSTEM...OR FROM THIS ONE...THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT              
IN GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. AT THIS                 
POINT...HAVE HIT THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY STRONGLY IN THE              
GRIDS...USING DEFINITE WORDING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE                 
MORE OPEN AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY LATER                  
SHIFTS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES...BUT AT THIS TIME...WE WILL JUST                 
MENTION IT HERE...IN THE GRIDS...AND THE HWO/WEATHER STORY                      
GRAPHIC.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT PLUNGE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES              
PLUNGE TO -30C OR LESS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. TIMING THE                     
TEMPERATURE PLUNGE WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH               
A NON DIURNAL TREND FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS OCCURRING VERY NEAR               
THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME...SIMILAR TO THE LAST ARCTIC PLUNGE WE HAD                
BACK IN LATE JANUARY. HAVE ALSO SHOWN A VERY STRONG GRADIENT IN                 
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS/SATURDAY HIGHS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE                   
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD PLUNGE INTO                
THE DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO RANGE. WITH WINDS REMAINING UP THROUGH              
SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL                   
ADVISORIES...IF NOT WARNINGS...FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY                   
NIGHT...SOMETHING ELSE TO MENTION IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.                     
DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN HOW LONG THE COLD                  
TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND...BUT HAVE FAVORED THE                            
ECMWF...KEEPING THE COLD AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. TEMPERATURES ON                
SUNDAY MAY NOT REACH THE ZERO DEGREE MARK...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE                 
CONFIDENCE TO DEPICT BELOW ZERO HIGHS ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST                 
AREA AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE CLOSE THOUGH.                                      
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH               
PUSHES AWAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT              
WEEK...AND A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN MOVING EAST. ASSOCIATED IFR                   
CIGS WITH A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY OVER WESTERN WI. EXPECT FLURRIES                
TO END BY EARLY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT                   
BREAKS. NEXT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW. MORE WDSPRD              
IFR CONDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.                    
HINTED AT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEGINNING FRI MORNING OVER MN                     
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/KFM                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
533 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE HALF AN HOUR AGO TO ADDRESS FOG SPREADING               
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED...PER CURRENT              
SATELLITE TRENDS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/RUC13 RELATIVE HUMIDITY                   
PROGS. THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT BY MID                           
MORNING...WITH DECK BEING QUITE THIN...PER 12Z RAOB DATA FROM                   
KMPX.                                                                           
ALSO ADDED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN ON THE ARCTIC SURGE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND              
RESULTANT EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND BLOWING SNOW                    
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
AT PRESENT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE                    
FOREAST AREA...WITH TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED JUST TO THE                  
WEST OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF                 
THE TROUGH HAS LED TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY                
FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.              
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE TROUGH HAS BEEN DETERIORATING               
EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT PUSHES FURTHER EAST TOWARD MINNESOTA...                
DUE TO WEAKENING FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RUC ISENTROPIC                     
ANALYSES SHOW THAT MAIN AREA OF UPLIFT/CONDENSATION PRESSURE                    
DEFICITS MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHERN                       
MINNESOTA...SO HAVE DROPPED PRECIP CHANCES TODAY IN FAVOR OF A                  
MENTION OF FLURRIES. HAVE ALSO INSERTED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN              
THE MORNING IN ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS...EXCEPT IN              
THE WEST AND SOUTH...WHERE A 5 TO 7 DEGREE JUMP APPEARS                         
REASONABLE.                                                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL               
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY. 280/285K ISENTROPIC SURFACES DEPICT                        
BLOSSOMING REGION OF LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND LIFT                
OVER PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE                     
SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.               
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...ALTHOUGH UP TO AN INCH MAY FALL TO THE                     
NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN MINNESOTA AND ACROSS                  
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.                                                         
THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION                
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS VERY CONSISTENT IN THE                 
DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN                           
CANADA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS A                      
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY RACE                         
SOUTHEASTWARD. MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A               
150 KT UPPER JET...WITH A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS              
TO ABOUT 650/700 MB. BOTH THE GFS/NAM DEPICT 6 HOUR SURFACE                     
PRESSURE RISES OF AT LEAST 15 MB BEHIND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.               
ALL OF THIS POINTS TOWARD A VERY WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO                 
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE               
GONE WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS IN THE 30 KT RANGE...WITH 40 TO 45                
KT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE MINNESOTA                  
RIVER VALLEY...AND THE I-90 CORRIDOR.                                           
AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE SNOW                
LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH                     
CHANCES OF SNOW STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST                
AREA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN BLAST OF COLD ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE               
FRONT. IF ANY SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE FROM THE FRIDAY                        
SYSTEM...OR FROM THIS ONE...THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT              
IN GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. AT THIS                 
POINT...HAVE HIT THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY STRONGLY IN THE              
GRIDS...USING DEFINITE WORDING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE                 
MORE OPEN AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY LATER                  
SHIFTS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES...BUT AT THIS TIME...WE WILL JUST                 
MENTION IT HERE...IN THE GRIDS...AND THE HWO/WEATHER STORY                      
GRAPHIC.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT PLUNGE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES              
PLUNGE TO -30C OR LESS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. TIMING THE                     
TEMPERATURE PLUNGE WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH               
A NON DIURNAL TREND FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS OCCURRING VERY NEAR               
THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME...SIMILAR TO THE LAST ARCTIC PLUNGE WE HAD                
BACK IN LATE JANUARY. HAVE ALSO SHOWN A VERY STRONG GRADIENT IN                 
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS/SATURDAY HIGHS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE                   
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD PLUNGE INTO                
THE DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO RANGE. WITH WINDS REMAINING UP THROUGH              
SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL                   
ADVISORIES...IF NOT WARNINGS...FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY                   
NIGHT...SOMETHING ELSE TO MENTION IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.                     
DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN HOW LONG THE COLD                  
TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND...BUT HAVE FAVORED THE                            
ECMWF...KEEPING THE COLD AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. TEMPERATURES ON                
SUNDAY MAY NOT REACH THE ZERO DEGREE MARK...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE                 
CONFIDENCE TO DEPICT BELOW ZERO HIGHS ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST                 
AREA AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE CLOSE THOUGH.                                      
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH               
PUSHES AWAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT              
WEEK...AND A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT TERM. IFR STRATUS               
DECK INVADING THE RGN ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RDG...WELL HANDLED BY              
RUC13 LO LVL RH ANALYSES AT LEAST IN PLACEMENT...WITH ABOUT A 2 HR              
LAG ON SPEED OF THE DECK. MSP/STC/RNH SHUD BE IN THE IFR CIGS FOR               
MUCH OF THE MRNG...WITH RWF BREAKING OUT NOT LONG AFTER TAF                     
ISSUANCE. EAU WILL SEE THE DECK FROM MID MRNG THRU MID                          
AFTN. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE REDUCED TO IFR IN THE DECK FOR THE MOST                
PART. WINDS SHUD BACK TO THE E AND SE THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...WHICH               
WOULD FAVOR A RETURN OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE                    
ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST SFC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TNGT...AND THE                    
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AHD OF NEXT SFC LO. HAVE PUT SOME IFR CIGS               
AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MSP...AS ELECTED TO KEEP              
THEM MVFR FOR THE TIME BEING. SOMETHING TO MONITOR ON FUTURE                    
ISSUANCES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
255 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN ON THE ARCTIC SURGE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND              
RESULTANT EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND BLOWING SNOW                    
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
AT PRESENT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE                    
FOREAST AREA...WITH TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED JUST TO THE                  
WEST OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF                 
THE TROUGH HAS LED TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY                
FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.              
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE TROUGH HAS BEEN DETERIORATING               
EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT PUSHES FURTHER EAST TOWARD MINNESOTA...                
DUE TO WEAKENING FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RUC ISENTROPIC                     
ANALYSES SHOW THAT MAIN AREA OF UPLIFT/CONDENSATION PRESSURE                    
DEFICITS MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHERN                       
MINNESOTA...SO HAVE DROPPED PRECIP CHANCES TODAY IN FAVOR OF A                  
MENTION OF FLURRIES. HAVE ALSO INSERTED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN              
THE MORNING IN ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS...EXCEPT IN              
THE WEST AND SOUTH...WHERE A 5 TO 7 DEGREE JUMP APPEARS                         
REASONABLE.                                                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL               
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY. 280/285K ISENTROPIC SURFACES DEPICT                        
BLOSSOMING REGION OF LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND LIFT                
OVER PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE                     
SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.               
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...ALTHOUGH UP TO AN INCH MAY FALL TO THE                     
NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN MINNESOTA AND ACROSS                  
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.                                                         
THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION                
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS VERY CONSISTENT IN THE                 
DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN                           
CANADA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS A                      
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY RACE                         
SOUTHEASTWARD. MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A               
150 KT UPPER JET...WITH A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS              
TO ABOUT 650/700 MB. BOTH THE GFS/NAM DEPICT 6 HOUR SURFACE                     
PRESSURE RISES OF AT LEAST 15 MB BEHIND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.               
ALL OF THIS POINTS TOWARD A VERY WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO                 
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE               
GONE WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS IN THE 30 KT RANGE...WITH 40 TO 45                
KT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE MINNESOTA                  
RIVER VALLEY...AND THE I-90 CORRIDOR.                                           
AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE SNOW                
LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH                     
CHANCES OF SNOW STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST                
AREA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN BLAST OF COLD ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE               
FRONT. IF ANY SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE FROM THE FRIDAY                        
SYSTEM...OR FROM THIS ONE...THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT              
IN GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. AT THIS                 
POINT...HAVE HIT THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY STRONGLY IN THE              
GRIDS...USING DEFINITE WORDING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE                 
MORE OPEN AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY LATER                  
SHIFTS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES...BUT AT THIS TIME...WE WILL JUST                 
MENTION IT HERE...IN THE GRIDS...AND THE HWO/WEATHER STORY                      
GRAPHIC.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT PLUNGE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES              
PLUNGE TO -30C OR LESS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. TIMING THE                     
TEMPERATURE PLUNGE WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH               
A NON DIURNAL TREND FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS OCCURRING VERY NEAR               
THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME...SIMILAR TO THE LAST ARCTIC PLUNGE WE HAD                
BACK IN LATE JANUARY. HAVE ALSO SHOWN A VERY STRONG GRADIENT IN                 
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS/SATURDAY HIGHS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE                   
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD PLUNGE INTO                
THE DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO RANGE. WITH WINDS REMAINING UP THROUGH              
SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL                   
ADVISORIES...IF NOT WARNINGS...FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY                   
NIGHT...SOMETHING ELSE TO MENTION IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.                     
DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN HOW LONG THE COLD                  
TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND...BUT HAVE FAVORED THE                            
ECMWF...KEEPING THE COLD AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. TEMPERATURES ON                
SUNDAY MAY NOT REACH THE ZERO DEGREE MARK...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE                 
CONFIDENCE TO DEPICT BELOW ZERO HIGHS ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST                 
AREA AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE CLOSE THOUGH.                                      
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH               
PUSHES AWAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT              
WEEK...AND A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND                 
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUING TO FILL               
THE SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA JUST SOUTHWEST OF KRWF. EXPECT               
THAT THE LOW STRATUS WILL MAKE SOME NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OVER                 
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE SFC START TO                
INCREASE FROM THE WSW. WOOD LAKE PROFILER STILL SHOWS CALM WINDS                
AT 925 MB ABUT EXPECT THIS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE. LOW LEVEL                      
MOISTURE AXIS DOES APPEAR TO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN BUT               
IS NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS YET. IFR CONDITIONS MAY REACH                  
KRWF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP              
TOWARDS KSTC AND KMSP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED FOG TO                  
VARYING DEGREES AT THE SITES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUT PINNING DOWN                
HOW LOW AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST IS DIFFICULT.                                 
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IS SENDING               
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THIS WILL                 
CONTINUE. LIGHT SNOW ALSO BEING REPORTED WITH SOME MVFR VIS                     
RESTRICTIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT KAXN AND KSTC TO HAVE THE                 
BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE BAND REACHING KAXN AROUND 10Z               
OR SO. SYSTEM LOSES PUNCH AS IT MOVES EAST BUT SOME FLURRIES OR                 
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW MAY AFFECT ALL SITES BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY VIS              
REDUCTION OUTSIDE OF KAXN AND KSTC AREAS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT                    
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TREND TO THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUD COVERAGE                
THURSDAY ALSO PROBLEMATIC BUT EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS                 
WITH POSSIBLE CLEARING WINDOW BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. ANOTHER                
TROUGH QUICKLY SENDS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE                
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.  ..MDB..                               
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/MDB                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
945 PM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF UPPER                
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA ALREADY. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE            
WEAKENING ASSOCIATED LOW OVER GREENWOOD. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO              
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION BUT SOME MID LEVEL              
CLOUDS WERE NOTED WITH THE LOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW GUSTS            
WERE STILL BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE                       
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THE FRONT MOVES            
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE               
HELD TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS UP IN OUR SOUTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP            
FORECAST LOWS A FEW DEGREES THERE AND ADJUSTED TEMP CURVES. VERY                
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE              
CWFA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A FEW WIND GUSTS WERE NOTED EARLIER IN THE WEST                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT. THE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER               
DURING THE LAST HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LIGHTER THE                    
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ELSE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT AT              
ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
1041 AM MST THU FEB 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HOW MUCH SNOW AND HOW STRONG OF WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PROBLEM                
OF THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS               
INCREASING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE                    
NIGHT. GOOD SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN                      
MOUNTAINS WITH PASSES BEING AFFECTED BY SNOW AND WINDS. HAVE                    
CANCELLED SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES AND HAVE ISSUED THROUGH              
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF                     
CENTRAL MONTANA FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WATCH              
FOR TONIGHT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING A WARNING ON THIS AFTERNOON              
PACKAGE. CAMP                                                                   
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
UPDATED 1739Z.                                                                  
A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. STRONG           
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTS TO 70 KTS            
EXPECTED NEAR MOUNTAINS...50 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE PLAINS.           
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKIES DUE TO SNOW...BLOWING              
SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND            
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.                
WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER NIGHT BUT REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NEXT 24              
HOURS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 450 AM MST THU FEB 7 2008)                          
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND SATURDAY...VERY                              
ENERGETIC...MOIST...PROGRESSIVE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT              
WILL AFFECT THE REGION. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY                    
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS.               
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARDS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE                
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND NORTH                
CENTRAL MONTANA. BEFORE THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE              
SEASONAL AVERAGES. A DETAILED FORECAST RATIONALE BEHIND THE 3-DAY               
FORECAST/HEADLINE PLAN IS PROVIDED BELOW. COHEN                                 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE                  
MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO              
FAR SW MT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUESTION              
THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS. IT SHOULD BE              
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY BUT MAIN PROBLEM TIME FRAME WILL             
BE SUNDAY WITH SOME MODELS HAVING THE ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE PLAINS              
AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE PLAINS. DECIDED TO BE SOMEWHAT                   
AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING IT OUT SO HAVE IT OUT OF THE EAST SLOPES ON                
SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP IT OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES. THE FLOW                 
ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY             
NIGHT AND FAIRLY MOIST. MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE            
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE SNOW AND HAVE               
RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER FAR SW MT AND THE NE             
ZONES. MOIST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH            
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. BLANK                            
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A               
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION MID WEEK. TROUGH IS EXPECTED              
TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING            
THE PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS               
AND THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT A FAIRLY            
QUICK PACE AS ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND.              
SAUCIER                                                                         
==============================================================                  
DETAILED 3-DAY FORECAST RATIONALE...AND DISCUSSION OF THE                       
CURRENT HEADLINES (HEADLINE SUMMARY IS PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS              
PRODUCT)...                                                                     
AT PRESENT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70 KT                            
500 MB JET STREAK ARE APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH DEEP MOIST                    
ASCENT FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...AND                     
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA. WEST NORTHWESTERLY                  
WINDS AT 700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER 55 KTS THROUGH THE               
DAY...BRINGING THE THREAT TO STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION.                
THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF                  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AS 500 MB JET STRENGTHENS TO OVER               
80 KTS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND A 700 MB JET OF 60 TO 70 KTS NOSES             
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE 700 MB JET IS NOTED TO BE               
NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT TYPICALLY LEND ITSELF TO BRINGING                
HIGH WINDS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA IN THE ABSENCE OF                   
OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER...INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A                  
HIGH WIND THREAT OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST                
AND CENTRAL MONTANA FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 5 PM MST THIS               
AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/MID LEVEL JET CORE WILL INTERACT              
WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT IN ETA-BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT                 
HELENA...AT THE SAME TIME THAT MIXING HEIGHTS...UP TO 4000 FEET                 
ARE MAXIMIZED. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALSO MAKES AN APPEARANCE OVER               
THAT REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT RIDGE ALOFT. THUS...IT IS                    
BECOMING LIKELY THAT WINDS FROM THAT LOW/MID LEVEL JET CORE WILL                
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM MST TODAY               
IN PORTIONS OF SW/CENTRAL MONTANA. THUS...BETWEEN THOSE HOURS...THE             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 5500 FEET IS TEMPORARILY                   
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 5500 FEET...AND A HIGH                 
WIND WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5500 FEET.               
THIS TEMPORARY UPGRADE/ISSUANCE APPLIES TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                 
LEWIS AND CLARK...JUDITH BASIN...JEFFERSON... BROADWATER...AND                  
MEAGHER COUNTIES ONLY. FOR BEAVERHEAD...MADISON...GALLATIN...AND                
CASCADE COUNTIES...THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN                
TACT FROM 5 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST TONIGHT AT ELEVATIONS                  
ABOVE 5500 FEET.                                                                
OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED           
DOWNSLOPE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL                    
AVERAGES AGAIN TODAY...A REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED AT 305K WILL           
OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH WILL               
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW                
SHOWERS THERE. RUC IS PICKING UP WELL ON THIS PRECIP                            
CHANCE...WHICH IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN HAVRE AND LEWISTOWN.                        
AS ALL THIS IS OCCURRING...THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO                
INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...YIELDING A 500 MB JET OF OVER                 
100 KT BY LATE TONIGHT...FURTHER ENHANCING THE 700 AND 850 MB                   
FLOW. WHILE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND                   
FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME OF INCREASING                   
CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WORKS               
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF YET ANOTHER RIDGE. THUS...A               
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                 
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN                  
SNOW...AND POTENTIAL SNOW DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE PLAINS...             
THE HIGH WIND EMPHASIS MAY BECOME MORE OF A WINTER WEATHER                      
EMPHASIS IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES              
WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND JET STREAM                      
MOVEMENT NORTHWARD. THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH                  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH CONTINUOUS HIGH              
WIND AND STEADY SNOWFALL LIKELIHOOD.                                            
THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS                           
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF ALBERTA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS                 
FRONT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED JET SUPPORT WILL YIELD SNOW SHOWERS               
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH                
THE FRONT STALLING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING                
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY...OVERRUNNING                           
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD POOL                    
APPEARS TO BECOME MORE STEEP. COLDER CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY                  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY...WITH A              
SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY                   
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. COHEN                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  39  25  35  -3 /  20  10  40  60                                           
CTB  35  22  31 -14 /  30  10  40  60                                           
HLN  35  24  32  16 /  60  30  60  60                                           
BZN  38  19  33  17 /  60  40  50  50                                           
WEY  22   9  20   8 /  90  60  70  80                                           
DLN  32  16  31  17 /  70  40  50  40                                           
HVR  38  18  29 -16 /  40  20  40  50                                           
LWT  36  21  32   0 /  30  30  40  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR MTZ008-012-               
014-015-050-052>055.                                                            
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR                  
MTZ010-012>014-044>046-049>054.                                                 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR MTZ009-048.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CAMP/COHEN                                                         
LONG TERM...BLANK/SAUCIER                                                       
AVIATION...ZELZER                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
450 AM MST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION                                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND SATURDAY...VERY                              
ENERGETIC...MOIST...PROGRESSIVE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT              
WILL AFFECT THE REGION. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY                    
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS.               
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARDS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE                
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND NORTH                
CENTRAL MONTANA. BEFORE THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN                    
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A DETAILED FORECAST RATIONALE BEHIND THE               
3-DAY FORECAST/HEADLINE PLAN IS PROVIDED BELOW. COHEN                           
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE                  
MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO              
FAR SW MT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUESTION              
THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS. IT SHOULD BE              
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY BUT MAIN PROBLEM TIME FRAME WILL             
BE SUNDAY WITH SOME MODELS HAVING THE ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE PLAINS              
AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE PLAINS. DECIDED TO BE SOMEWHAT                   
AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING IT OUT SO HAVE IT OUT OF THE EAST SLOPES ON                
SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP IT OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES. THE FLOW                 
ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY             
NIGHT AND FAIRLY MOIST. MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE            
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE SNOW AND HAVE               
RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER FAR SW MT AND THE NE             
ZONES. MOIST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH            
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. BLANK                            
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A               
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION MID WEEK. TROUGH IS EXPECTED              
TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING            
THE PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS               
AND THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT A FAIRLY            
QUICK PACE AS ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND.              
SAUCIER                                                                         
==============================================================                  
DETAILED 3-DAY FORECAST RATIONALE...AND DISCUSSION OF THE                       
CURRENT HEADLINES (HEADLINE SUMMARY IS PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS              
PRODUCT)...                                                                     
AT PRESENT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70 KT                            
500 MB JET STREAK ARE APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH DEEP MOIST                    
ASCENT FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...AND                     
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA. WEST NORTHWESTERLY                  
WINDS AT 700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER 55 KTS THROUGH THE               
DAY...BRINGING THE THREAT TO STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION.                
THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF                  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AS 500 MB JET STRENGTHENS TO OVER               
80 KTS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND A 700 MB JET OF 60 TO 70 KTS NOSES             
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE 700 MB JET IS NOTED TO BE               
NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT TYPICALLY LEND ITSELF TO BRINGING                
HIGH WINDS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA IN THE ABSENCE OF                   
OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER...INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A                  
HIGH WIND THREAT OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST                
AND CENTRAL MONTANA FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 5 PM MST THIS               
AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/MID LEVEL JET CORE WILL INTERACT              
WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT IN ETA-BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT                 
HELENA...AT THE SAME TIME THAT MIXING HEIGHTS...UP TO 4000 FEET                 
ARE MAXIMIZED. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALSO MAKES AN APPEARANCE OVER               
THAT REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT RIDGE ALOFT. THUS...IT IS                    
BECOMING LIKELY THAT WINDS FROM THAT LOW/MID LEVEL JET CORE WILL                
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM MST TODAY               
IN PORTIONS OF SW/CENTRAL MONTANA. THUS...BETWEEN THOSE HOURS...THE             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 5500 FEET IS TEMPORARILY                   
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 5500 FEET...AND A HIGH                 
WIND WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5500 FEET.               
THIS TEMPORARY UPGRADE/ISSUANCE APPLIES TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                 
LEWIS AND CLARK...JUDITH BASIN...JEFFERSON... BROADWATER...AND                  
MEAGHER COUNTIES ONLY. FOR BEAVERHEAD...MADISON...GALLATIN...AND                
CASCADE COUNTIES...THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN                
TACT FROM 5 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST TONIGHT AT ELEVATIONS                  
ABOVE 5500 FEET.                                                                
OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED           
DOWNSLOPE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL                    
AVERAGES AGAIN TODAY...A REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED AT 305K WILL           
OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH WILL               
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW                
SHOWERS THERE. RUC IS PICKING UP WELL ON THIS PRECIP                            
CHANCE...WHICH IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN HAVRE AND LEWISTOWN.                        
AS ALL THIS IS OCCURRING...THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO                
INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...YIELDING A 500 MB JET OF OVER                 
100 KT BY LATE TONIGHT...FURTHER ENHANCING THE 700 AND 850 MB                   
FLOW. WHILE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND                   
FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME OF INCREASING                   
CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WORKS               
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF YET ANOTHER RIDGE. THUS...A               
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                 
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN                  
SNOW...AND POTENTIAL SNOW DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE PLAINS...             
THE HIGH WIND EMPHASIS MAY BECOME MORE OF A WINTER WEATHER                      
EMPHASIS IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES              
WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND JET STREAM                      
MOVEMENT NORTHWARD. THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH                  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH CONTINUOUS HIGH              
WIND AND STEADY SNOWFALL LIKELIHOOD.                                            
THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS                           
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF ALBERTA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS                 
FRONT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED JET SUPPORT WILL YIELD SNOW SHOWERS               
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH                
THE FRONT STALLING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING                
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY...OVERRUNNING                           
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD POOL                    
APPEARS TO BECOME MORE STEEP. COLDER CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY                  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY...WITH A              
SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY                   
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. COHEN                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 1150Z.                                                                  
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST                
AREA TODAY. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL             
TIMING. EXPECT THE FRONT TO GO THROUGH KCTB AROUND 16Z...KGTF AND               
KHLN NR 18Z...KHVR BY 20Z AND KLWT BY 21Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS                
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST BEHIND              
THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS EVEN IN THE            
VALLEYS AND PLAINS NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE EXCEPTION            
OF KHVR. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE WINDS AT KCTB BEHIND THE              
COLD FRONT AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10 TO               
15KTS WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH                
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE LATTER.               
BESIDES STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AVIATION INTERESTS WILL HAVE TO                
CONTEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS SUDDENLY DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR                   
CONDITIONS WITH BANDS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM.               
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. CONDITIONS SHOULD                
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. HOWEVER STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50KTS WITH              
LOCAL GUSTS TO 70KTS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT                
WITH CONTINUED MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  39  25  35  -3 /  20  10  40  60                                           
CTB  37  22  31 -14 /  40  10  40  60                                           
HLN  35  24  32  16 /  70  30  60  60                                           
BZN  36  19  33  17 /  80  40  50  50                                           
WEY  21   9  20   8 / 100  60  70  80                                           
DLN  32  16  31  17 /  90  40  50  40                                           
HVR  38  18  29 -16 /  40  20  40  50                                           
LWT  36  21  32   0 /  50  30  40  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS                      
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                
LEWIS AND CLARK...JUDITH BASIN...JEFFERSON...BROADWATER...AND                   
MEAGHER COUNTIES.                                                               
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THIS                      
MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS            
AND CLARK...JUDITH BASIN...JEFFERSON...BROADWATER...AND MEAGHER                 
COUNTIES.                                                                       
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM                
MST THIS EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND                  
SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...JUDITH                                               
BASIN...JEFFERSON...BROADWATER...AND MEAGHER COUNTIES.                          
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS                   
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                
LEWIS AND CLARK...JUDITH BASIN...JEFFERSON...BROADWATER...AND                   
MEAGHER COUNTIES.                                                               
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR                  
ALL ELEVATIONS IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL...AND                     
SOUTHWEST MONTANA.                                                              
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO                  
11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET IN                        
CASCADE...BEAVERHEAD...MADISON...AND GALLATIN COUNTIES.                         
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN               
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...COHEN                                                              
LONG TERM...BLANK/SAUCIER                                                       
AVIATION...MPJ                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
349 AM MST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND SATURDAY...VERY                              
ENERGETIC...MOIST...PROGRESSIVE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT              
WILL AFFECT THE REGION. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY                    
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS.               
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARDS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE                
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND NORTH                
CENTRAL MONTANA. BEFORE THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN                    
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A DETAILED FORECAST RATIONALE BEHIND THE               
3-DAY FORECAST/HEADLINE PLAN IS PROVIDED BELOW. COHEN                           
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE                  
MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO              
FAR SW MT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUESTION              
THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS. IT SHOULD BE              
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY BUT MAIN PROBLEM TIME FRAME WILL             
BE SUNDAY WITH SOME MODELS HAVING THE ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE PLAINS              
AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE PLAINS. DECIDED TO BE SOMEWHAT                   
AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING IT OUT SO HAVE IT OUT OF THE EAST SLOPES ON                
SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP IT OVER HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES. THE FLOW                 
ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY             
NIGHT AND FAIRLY MOIST. MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE            
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE SNOW AND HAVE               
RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER FAR SW MT AND THE NE             
ZONES. MOIST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH            
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. BLANK                            
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A               
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION MID WEEK. TROUGH IS EXPECTED              
TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING            
THE PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS               
AND THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT A FAIRLY            
QUICK PACE AS ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND.              
SAUCIER                                                                         
==============================================================                  
DETAILED 3-DAY FORECAST RATIONALE...AND DISCUSSION OF THE                       
CURRENT HEADLINES (HEADLINE SUMMARY IS PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS              
PRODUCT)...                                                                     
AT PRESENT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70 KT                            
500 MB JET STREAK ARE APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH DEEP MOIST                    
ASCENT FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...AND                     
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA. WEST NORTHWESTERLY                  
WINDS AT 700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER 55 KTS THROUGH THE               
DAY...BRINGING THE THREAT TO STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION.                
THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF                  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AS 500 MB JET STRENGTHENS TO OVER               
80 KTS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND A 700 MB JET OF 60 TO 70 KTS NOSES             
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE 700 MB JET IS NOTED TO BE               
NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT TYPICALLY LEND ITSELF TO BRINGING                
HIGH WINDS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA IN THE ABSENCE OF                   
OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER...INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A                  
HIGH WIND THREAT OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST                
AND CENTRAL MONTANA FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 5 PM MST THIS               
AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/MID LEVEL JET CORE WILL INTERACT              
WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT IN ETA-BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT                 
HELENA...AT THE SAME TIME THAT MIXING HEIGHTS...UP TO 4000 FEET                 
ARE MAXIMIZED. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALSO MAKES AN APPEARANCE OVER               
THAT REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT RIDGE ALOFT. THUS...IT IS                    
BECOMING LIKELY THAT WINDS FROM THAT LOW/MID LEVEL JET CORE WILL                
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM MST TODAY               
IN PORTIONS OF SW/CENTRAL MONTANA. THUS...BETWEEN THOSE HOURS...THE             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 5500 FEET IS TEMPORARILY                   
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 5500 FEET...AND A HIGH                 
WIND WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5500 FEET.               
THIS TEMPORARY UPGRADE/ISSUANCE APPLIES TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                 
LEWIS AND CLARK...JUDITH BASIN...JEFFERSON... BROADWATER...AND                  
MEAGHER COUNTIES ONLY. FOR BEAVERHEAD...MADISON...GALLATIN...AND                
CASCADE COUNTIES...THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN                
TACT FROM 5 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST TONIGHT AT ELEVATIONS                  
ABOVE 5500 FEET.                                                                
OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...WHILE LEE TROUGHING IN MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED           
DOWNSLOPE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL                    
AVERAGES AGAIN TODAY...A REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED AT 305K WILL           
OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH WILL               
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW                
SHOWERS THERE. RUC IS PICKING UP WELL ON THIS PRECIP                            
CHANCE...WHICH IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN HAVRE AND LEWISTOWN.                        
AS ALL THIS IS OCCURRING...THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO                
INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...YIELDING A 500 MB JET OF OVER                 
100 KT BY LATE TONIGHT...FURTHER ENHANCING THE 700 AND 850 MB                   
FLOW. WHILE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND                   
FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME OF INCREASING                   
CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WORKS               
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF YET ANOTHER RIDGE. THUS...A               
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                 
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN                  
SNOW...AND POTENTIAL SNOW DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE PLAINS...             
THE HIGH WIND EMPHASIS MAY BECOME MORE OF A WINTER WEATHER                      
EMPHASIS IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES              
WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND JET STREAM                      
MOVEMENT NORTHWARD. THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH                  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH CONTINUOUS HIGH              
WIND AND STEADY SNOWFALL LIKELIHOOD.                                            
THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS                           
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF ALBERTA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS                 
FRONT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED JET SUPPORT WILL YIELD SNOW SHOWERS               
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH                
THE FRONT STALLING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING                
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY...OVERRUNNING                           
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD POOL                    
APPEARS TO BECOME MORE STEEP. COLDER CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY                  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY...WITH A              
SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY                   
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. COHEN                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT                   
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD               
SNOW AND OBSCURATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE              
AND IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. KBZN IS STILL EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MVFR                
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 20Z. MODELS ARE                
STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER KHLN WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS                     
TIME...BUT FEEL CHANCE OF LOW CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING               
HAS INCREASED TO 40 PERCENT FROM 09Z ONWARD. BIGGEST CHANGE IN TAF              
FORECASTS HAS BEEN TO LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR AND MENTION VCSH AT                
KHVR AND KLWT AROUND 15Z NORTH AND 19Z SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE AND                
BUFKIT PROFILES ARE SHOWING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE                
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM MOVES              
RAPIDLY EAST THURSDAY EVENING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MPJ                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  39  25  35  -3 /  20  10  40  60                                           
CTB  37  22  31 -14 /  40  10  40  60                                           
HLN  35  24  32  16 /  70  30  60  60                                           
BZN  36  19  33  17 /  80  40  50  50                                           
WEY  21   9  20   8 / 100  60  70  80                                           
DLN  32  16  31  17 /  90  40  50  40                                           
HVR  38  18  29 -16 /  40  20  40  50                                           
LWT  36  21  32   0 /  50  30  40  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS                      
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                
LEWIS AND CLARK...JUDITH BASIN...JEFFERSON...BROADWATER...AND                   
MEAGHER COUNTIES.                                                               
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THIS                      
MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS            
AND CLARK...JUDITH BASIN...JEFFERSON...BROADWATER...AND MEAGHER                 
COUNTIES.                                                                       
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM                
MST THIS EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND                  
SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...JUDITH BASIN...JEFFERSON...BROADWATER...AND          
MEAGHER COUNTIES.                                                               
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS                   
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                
LEWIS AND CLARK...JUDITH BASIN...JEFFERSON...BROADWATER...AND                   
MEAGHER COUNTIES.                                                               
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR                  
ALL ELEVATIONS IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL...AND                     
SOUTHWEST MONTANA.                                                              
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO                  
11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET IN                        
CASCADE...BEAVERHEAD...MADISON...AND GALLATIN COUNTIES.                         
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN               
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...COHEN                                                              
LONG TERM...BLANK/SAUCIER                                                       
AVIATION...MPJ                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
749 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE                
INTERESTING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL ONCE               
AGAIN BECOME QUITE COMMON. THE RETURN TO SNOWY CONDITIONS WILL BE               
ACCOMPANIED BY A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL KEEP US ON THE                  
COLD SIDE OF NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
NEVER TRUST WARM ADVECTION. A GOOD RULE FOR METEOROLOGISTS TO LIVE              
BY.                                                                             
THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FLAT OHIO VALLEY RIDGE HAS SHOWN TO               
BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LIGHT                 
SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS                      
MORNING...WITH 06Z NAM/WRF AND GFS MODELS ALONG WITH THE 09Z RUC13              
GUIDANCE PACKAGE SUPPORTING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPMENT.               
WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE INSIGNIFICANT AT                
AN INCH OR SO FOR MOST AREAS...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL                  
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH HIGH CHC EAST OF LK ONTARIO.                   
THESE CHANGES HAVE BEEN REFLECTED IN THE UPDATED GRIDS AND ALPHA-               
NUMERIC PRODUCTS...INCLUDING THE WRITTEN ZONES.                                 
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...WHICH AT                  
THIS POINT IN THE SEASON RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE BULK                 
OF THE REGION TO THE LOWER 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.                            
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE                     
EVENING HOURS THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT WAMR ADVECTION WILL BECOME                  
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT              
OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SET THE                
STAGE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BY                  
DAYBREAK WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN                 
COUNTIES. POPS WERE TAKEN FROM A BLEND OF THE 21Z SREF AND 00Z                  
GFS MODEL RUNS. THE NAM/WRF SOLUTION APPEARED TO BE A LOW OUTLIER.              
ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAL WILL RANGE FROM A COATING/HALF INCH OVER              
THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO AN INCH OR TWO NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE                   
ONSET OF THIS NEXT ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY                 
MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL                  
KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S (TEENS EAST OF LK ONT). THESE                   
READINGS WILL BE SOME 6 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
THIS PERIOD WILL PROVE TO BE VERY ACTIVE AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE                
WILL DIG FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION               
TO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND                  
THE RETURN OF SUB-ARCTIC TEMPERATURES. SOME DETAILS...                          
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY WILL                     
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD                 
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY THE                  
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC BASED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.              
THE LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE ENHANCED BY SOME JET INDUCED               
LIFT...AS A 140 KT H25 JET WILL BE RACING ACROSS THE MIDDLE                     
ATLANTIC STATES. POPS FROM THE THREE MAIN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE                  
PACKAGES SUGGEST HIGH LIKELY TO MINIMAL CAT (70 TO 80) POPS SHOULD              
BE USED...BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE CANNOT SEE WHY WE CANNOT              
BE AGGRESSIVE AND USE 100 POPS TO COVER THE EVENT.                              
WHILE THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DOUBT OF AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW...                 
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LIEKYL SEND SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S                
TO NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH                 
JUST AN INCH OR TWO ANTICIPATED FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.                     
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                   
UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A DEEPENING SFC                
REFLECTION ACROSS UPPER ONTARIO WITH ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD                 
FRONT TAKING AIM ON OUR REGION. CURRENT GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT              
THE FRONT CROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE                
MORNING THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER               
DAYBREAK.                                                                       
WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE                 
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL                     
PASSAGE...THERE COULD BE A BURST OF SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT                  
ALONG WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THIS CAN BE BETTER DEFINED AS THE               
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT BECOMES NAILED DOWN...BUT PATTERN              
RECOGNITION AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT                    
CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. CAT POPS WILL BE USED FOR                
THIS PERIOD.                                                                    
FOR SUNDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CRUISE ACROSS SOUTHERN               
ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND WHILE ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR OVER THE EASTERN              
GREAT LAKES. THE CHANCE FOR GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND                  
OVER ALL OF THE REGION AS A RESULT...WITH A VERY COLD (-20C H85)                
300-320 FLOW PRODUCING LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.                      
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW                   
NORMAL VALUES...WITH MERCURY READINGS BASICALLY REMAINING WITHIN A              
FEW DEGREES OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE                 
INTO TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REGION SUNDAY WITH STRONG               
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE                    
DIGITS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH CAN              
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO                
STAY TUNED.                                                                     
THE PRESSURE GRAIDENT WILL RELAX SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CONTINUED               
FEED OF COLD -20C H85 AIR OVRE THE LAKES WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS               
IN PLACE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
AFTER A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...A                      
PACIFIC-BASED FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS               
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LAKE SNOWS ONGOING AT THE START OF               
THE PERIOD SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING                
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM AND LAKE-AIR DELTA T`S DROP BELOW                    
CRITICAL VALUES.                                                                
THEREAFTER...OUR ATTENTION WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR            
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WHILE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING                        
PERSIST...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE               
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH AN                      
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE/FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND                 
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A MODEST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THIS                   
COULD BE A TRICKY PERIOD AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE IS                        
CONCERNED...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND                 
LINGERING COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE TO RESULT IN SOME MIXED                     
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THINGS IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS                
PER CONTINUITY...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                           
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY WAVE            
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE INITIAL             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THOUGH MOST OF ITS EFFECTS WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH            
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND PROVIDE THE               
AREA WITH DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER.                                               
IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT             
THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR                 
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO                
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF                 
LIGHT SNOW. GENERALLY SPEAKING...CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR AND VSBYS                 
WILL BE MVFR TO VFR TODAY...THOUGH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL               
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. IMPROVEMENT              
TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR/VFR CEILINGS IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE                  
TROUGH TONIGHT.                                                                 
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR            
SOME LIGHT SNOW AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST              
TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL ACT TO KEEP RELATIVELY              
LIGHT WINDS/MINIMAL WAVES IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE                
APPROACHING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL THEN RESULT IN INCREASING                     
WINDS...WITH GALES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF              
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN              
BUT HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR SALAMANCA AS THE RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW               
FLOOD STAGE THERE. THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AT OLEAN BUT IS STILL                  
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH                      
TODAY. SEE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.                          
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RSH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RSH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJR                                                                 
AVIATION...JJR                                                                  
MARINE...JJR                                                                    
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
924 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HUGE CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS HOW WILL WINDS RESPOND LATE TONIGHT                   
BEHIND COLD FRONT AND HOW LOW WILL VSBY GET IN BLOWING SNOW LATE                
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE AND MORE AFTER LOOKING AT DATA                      
UPSTREAM WOULD APPEAR WIND SPEEDS BEHIND COLD FRONT APPEAR LESS                 
THAN EXPECTED. RUC AND 00Z NAM DOES SHOW MORE 40-45 KTS AT 850 MB               
BEHIND THE FRONT 12Z-18Z A TAD LOWER THAN PREV RUNS. GOOD PRESSURE              
RISE BEHIND IT WITH 8 MB/3 HR...BUT THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN                 
MODELS SHOWED 24 HOURS AGO. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW SUSTAINED 27-31 KTS               
WITH GUSTS TO 35-37KTS AT TIMES...BUT UPSTREAM VSBYS IN BLOWING                 
SNOW AT ESTEVAN AND REGINA HAVE NOT BEEN TOO IMPRESSIVE...BRIEFLY               
TO 1/2 TO 3/4SM FOR 1-3 HOUR PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SNOW BAND                    
MOVING INTO DVL AREA IS AHD OF FRONT AND WIND SHIFT WITH OBS                    
AND RADAR INDICATING LITTLE FALLING SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE                
WIND AREA. SNOW BAND IS PRETTY NARROW PRODUCING ONE QUARTER TO ONE              
HALF INCH IN MINOT AREA. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SNOW                    
UPSTREAM IN THE YORKTON SASK AREA MAY YET WRAP SOUTHWARD AROUND                 
SFC LOW AS IT MOVES EAST OF WINNIPEG LATE TONIGHT INTO FAR NE                   
ND/NW MN. THUS BEST CHC OF 1-2 INCHES IS FAR NRN VALLEY...SO DID                
EXPAND BLIZZARD WARNING INTO THAT AREA. ALSO THIS AREA HAS 10-15                
SNOWPACK.                                                                       
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...INCL GRAND FORKS-FARGO NEW SNOW UNDER                
AN INCH (LIKELY UNDER A HALF INCH) AND WITH FREQUENT WIND SPEEDS                
OVER 35 MPH NOT EXTREMELY PROLONGUED FEEL MORE OF AN ADVISORY                   
SITUATION FOR BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY VERSUS A BLIZZARD.                   
TIME WILL TELL. TWEEKED TEMPS A BIT IN WCNTRL MN BUT OTHERWISE NO               
CHANGES. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HANDLE TRANSITION TO WIND CHILL                  
HEADLINES WHICH WILL BE NEEDED ONCE ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ARE DONE.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS OVER FAR ERN ND INTO MN                 
WILL STAY PUT UNTIL FRONT ARRIVES...WHICH WILL BE NR 08Z-09Z AT                 
GFK...10-11Z AT FAR...AND 12Z OR SO AT BJI. NORTHWEST WINDS                     
SATURDAY 25-35KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COULD GET THOSE MVFR                 
CIGS WITH SUSPENDED BLOWING SNOW ON SATURDAY IN ERN ND.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...CHALLENGE DEALS WITH HEADLINES...POSSIBLE BLIZZARD                 
CONDITIONS. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS. MODELS                  
SIMILAR WITH UNFOLDING SCENARIO...WITH GFS/ECMWF A BIT STRONGER.                
WILL LEAN TOWARD MOST CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF. TIMING IS A BIT                     
SLOWER...AND THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING.                 
GIVEN CURRENT OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT COLD FRONT TO BE                  
ENTERING THE W FA JUST BEFORE 06Z...VALLEY BY 09Z...AND E FA BY                 
12Z. STRONG WIND INDICATORS REMAIN IDEAL. STRONG COLD AIR                       
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MID-DAY ON SATURDAY AS 850MB                  
TEMPS DROP 26 DEGREES IN 12 HOURS. 925MB-850MB WINDS WILL BE                    
UNIDIRECTIONAL AT 45KTS-55KTS THROUGH MID-DAY SATURDAY. 15MB/6HR                
PRESSURE RISE MAXIMUM WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FA FROM W-E ON                  
SAT. THINK STRONGEST CORE (50KNTS-55KTS) OF 850MB WINDS WILL BE                 
ACROSS THE W FA...45KT-50KT SPEEDS OVER THE VALLEY...40KT-45KT                  
SPEEDS E OF THE VALLEY. EXPECT RAPID INCREASE IN SPEEDS WITH FROPA              
AND STRONG GUSTS. THE GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN...AND THINK SUSTAINED                 
WIND SPEEDS WILL MAXIMIZE WITH PASSAGE OF MAXIMUM PRESSURE RISE                 
(SAT MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40MPH SUSTAINED                 
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH (25-35MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45MPH EAST OF                
THE VALLEY). FROPA SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF AT LEAST                  
MODERATE (POSSIBLY HEAVY) SNOWFALL. CURRENT CANADIAN RADAR                      
INDICATES A BAND OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...AND                        
STRENGTHENING. MODELS INDICATE LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                      
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE. MODELS ALSO                 
INDICATE WEAK 700MB CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THINK A                   
BRIEF (2-3 HOUR) PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY. WILL              
GO WITH 1-3 INCHES NEW SNOWFALL GIVEN FAST PROPAGATION. 2 OR 3                  
INCHES OF SNOW IN 1-3 HOURS COMBINED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD                
CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.                                                 
SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING AND CROSSING THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME.               
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY STRONG...SOME                     
QUESTIONS ABOUT WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...SNOW AMTS...AND TIMING/PATH OF              
MAXIMUM PRESSURE RISE STILL REMAIN. MOST CONFIDENT GOING WITH                   
BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS A DVL TO VALLEY CITY CORRIDOR AND WILL                  
ISSUE. THIS AREA RECEIVED MOST SNOWFALL THIS PAST WEEK (3-6                     
INCHES) AND STRONGEST CORE OF 850MB WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ACROSS                  
THIS AREA. WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF BLIZZARD WATCH. WOULD LIKE TO                 
SEE SYSTEM CROSS THE ROCKIES AND DEVELOP FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN               
ORDER TO GAIN SOME ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE. ALSO...WOULD LIKE TO SEE              
HOW SNOW BAND DEVELOPS...AS THIS WILL BE A LIKELY INDICATOR FOR                 
BLIZZARD WARNING VS. WINTER WX ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS                
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL (S VALLEY INTO WC MN)                 
THIS PAST WEEK. A DECISION ABOUT WHAT TO DO WITH THIS WATCH SHOULD              
BE MADE BY THIS EVENING. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY ACROSS                 
THE FAR EASTERN FA. MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND OF SNOW ALONG WITH                   
INCREASING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME VSBY PROBLEMS...AND WIND CHILL                 
VALUES WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.                                
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -40F ARE AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN                
INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE                          
PRODUCTS...BUT WANT TO KEEP BLIZZARD THE MAIN FOCUS OF HEADLINES                
(WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME).                  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES BELOW                
NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS NEXT               
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. AT THIS TIME...MAYBE A COUPLE INCHES NEW                 
SNOWFALL EXPECTED.                                                              
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TRANSITION                 
FROM A MORE ZONAL 500MB FLOW TO MORE AMPLIFICATION BY THE END OF                
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT DO HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON                  
TROF PASSAGES. INITIAL 500MB TROF AND SURFACE FRONT PASS ON                     
TUE...SO KEPT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST. WITH MORE                        
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND RAPID SURFACE                
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS...COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ON WED AND                
WED NIGHT. THEN...A SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER                
OF THE WORK WEEK...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS...LOOK                 
FOR THEM TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                 
     NDZ027-029-030-039-049-052-053.                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-           
     024-026-028-038-054.                                                       
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ008-016.            
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                 
     MNZ001>003-005-008-013>015-029.                                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                 
     MNZ006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ004-007.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1105 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH BLIZZARD WATCH. NEAR                   
TERM...AREAS OF FOG THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH INCREASING SFC DEW               
POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOST OF THE REGION HAS VSBY ABOVE                       
1SM...BUT ISOLD LOCATIONS NEAR ZERO. MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG                     
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z MODELS COMING IN SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL               
OF COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND INDICATORS STILL SUGGEST EXPECTED WIND               
SPEEDS. QPF LOOKS A BIT MORE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT IT                
WILL SNOW. ADJUSTED POPS/WX ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO REAL                    
CHANGES NEEDED TO POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...JUST NEED TO                   
DELAY TIMING OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HARD TO SEE               
MOVEMENT WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OBSCURING LOWER CLOUDS ON FOG LOOP.                 
WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT AND                  
SHOULD ADVECT LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MON MORNING                                          
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND               
WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW. AREA RADARS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ALONG             
THE ND/MB BORDER MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. WILL ADD LOW POPS             
ALONG THE BORDER THIS MORNING. RUC VERIFIED THE BEST WITH AREA VAD              
WINDS COMPARED WITH THE GFS AND NAM AND WILL BE USED IN SHORT TERM.             
STRONG SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.              
SHOWALTER INDEX GETS DOWN TO +2 TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER               
LEVEL JET DIVES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.                           
WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL             
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN STRONG WINDS TO FOLLOW WHICH SHOULD               
CREATE BLOWNG SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES.                                       
EXTENDED...MON AND TUE                                                          
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR MON AND MON NIGHT. APPROACHING TROUGH             
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL KEEP POPS AS IS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     NDZ008-016-027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.                                
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY                 
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054.                          
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-027-028-030-031-040.                            
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     MNZ001>004-007-029.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
430 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MON MORNING                                         
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND               
WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW. AREA RADARS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ALONG             
THE ND/MB BORDER MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. WILL ADD LOW POPS             
ALONG THE BORDER THIS MORNING. RUC VERIFIED THE BEST WITH AREA VAD              
WINDS COMPARED WITH THE GFS AND NAM AND WILL BE USED IN SHORT TERM.             
STRONG SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.              
SHOWALTER INDEX GETS DOWN TO +2 TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER               
LEVEL JET DIVES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.                           
WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL             
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN STRONG WINDS TO FOLLOW WHICH SHOULD               
CREATE BLOWNG SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES.                                       
EXTENDED...MON AND TUE                                                          
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR MON AND MON NIGHT. APPROACHING TROUGH             
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL KEEP POPS AS IS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BJI TO FAR TO                
OAKES ND. MVFR CONDITIONS WERE SOUTH OF LINE FROM SOUTH OF BDE TO               
GFK TO NEAR DAZEY ND. HARD TO SEE MOVEMENT WITH HIGHER CLOUDS                   
OBSCURING LOWER CLOUDS ON FOG LOOP. RUC MODEL HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON            
RH FIELDS. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS                  
MORNING AT GFK AND SHOULD ADVECT LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST.                      
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON              
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.                    
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON                
     FOR MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-027-028-030-031-040.                        
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     MNZ001>004-007-029.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HOPPES                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
839 PM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
500 MB SHORT WAVE IN MONTANA WITH ACCOMPANIED SFC LOW AND WEAK                  
TROUGH IN ERN MT WILL MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND BY 12Z. RADARS AND OBS              
INDICATE SPOTTY LIGHT -SN. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE               
OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION AREA OF               
LOW CLOUDS WHICH WERE FROM WATERTOWN SD TO ALEXANDRIA TO STAPLES                
MN AT 4 PM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD MAINLY ACROSS MN WITH NRN                 
EDGE HANGING NR A FERGUS FALLS-WADENA LINE. RUC13 INDICATES LOWER               
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT..MAINLY AFFECTING               
VALLEY EASTWARD. WITH ALL THESE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND                     
TONIGHT DECIDED TO UP TEMPS SOME...MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE NRN                   
VALLEY...WITH MOST SITES IN THE 10-15 RANGE FOR LOWS.                           
NO CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST THU FEB 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
A CLASSIC ARCTIC OUTBREAK REMAINS IN THE WORKS FRI NIGHT AND THE                
POTENTIAL FOR A GROUND BLIZZARD DURING THAT PERIOD REMAINS AT THE               
FOREFRONT OF THE FCST. THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA               
THAN ITS GFS AND ECMWF COUNTERPARTS...BUT THE GAP IS NARROW AND                 
WITH NO SHORTAGE OF CAA A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.               
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF JUST SLIGHTLY ON THE CORE OF STRONGEST                   
SFC-850MB WINDS 06-18Z SAT...AND SHIFTED THEM INTO THE NRN RRV.                 
OF COURSE...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 45KTS AND 55KTS OF WIND IN THE               
MIXED LAYER MAY NOT MEAN MUCH...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE STILL FAVOR                 
THE STRONGER GFS. THE BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED EXACTLY AS               
INHERITED AS THE TIMING LOOKS WELL IN HAND. WE WILL EVENTUALLY                  
REQUIRE HEADLINES FURTHER INTO MN FROM KBDE-KBJI /LIKELY SOME TYPE              
OF ADVZY...FOLLOWED BY WIND CHILL WARNING/ BUT THE RISK OF BLIZZARD             
CRITERIA BEING MET THERE IS LOW ENOUGH TO REFRAIN FROM A WATCH.                 
A WEAK LEAD S/W WILL PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. PLENTY OF                  
CLOUDS UPSTREAM SO IF WE CAN GET THRU THE EVE WITHOUT FALLING TOO               
MUCH...THEN WARM MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE REASONABLE. THIS S/W LACKS                 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OR ASCENT...BUT SFC-850MB FLOW TURNS SLY AND                
AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP WE SHOULD DEVELOP A STRATUS                  
DECK ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FA BY 12-15Z FRI. NAM PROG                      
SOUNDINGS ARE PARTICULARLY MOIST IN THE BNDRY LAYER...BUT EVEN THE              
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME RISK OF -FZDZ FRI MORNING SINCE                 
SATURATION DOES NOT EXTEND COLDER THAN -10 C. BUFKIT TOOLS ARE NOT              
EXCITED ABOUT THIS...SO WE WILL STOP SHORT OF INCLUDING THIS IN                 
THE FCST AT THIS POINT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.                     
THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD SURGE INTO THE KDVL BASIN 00-03Z SAT AND                
INTO THE VALLEY NEAR 06Z SAT. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PEG                      
15MB/6HR PRESSURE RISES DROPPING RIGHT INTO THE VALLEY SO THERE                 
WILL BE A NOTABLE AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...WHICH THE               
GFS PEGS AT 40-45KTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT 900MB.                  
DRASTIC CAA WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -32 C IN THE NRN FA BY                 
12Z SAT...SO THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO DRIVE               
SIGNIFICANT SFC WINDS. A MORE NRLY LOW LVL FLOW WOULD ENHANCE THE               
WINDS MORE YET...BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE WE SEEM SET ON A BIT OF A                 
CROSS-VALLEY FLOW. WE DO HAVE 1-3 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW OVER MUCH                
OF THE AREA...WTIH EVEN GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR EDDY/NELSON COUNTIES.              
ALWAYS A BIT OF CONCERN THAT WARMING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE                
SIG ENOUGH TO PUT SOME CRUST ON THE SNOW...BUT AT THIS POINT THAT               
IS NOT EXPECTED. BESIDES...WITH THIS MUCH CAA THE RECENT SNOW                   
WOULD BREAK LOOSE ANYWAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR MEETING                     
BLIZZARD CRITERIA WILL BE WHETHER -SN WILL FALL WITH THE WINDS. THE             
NAM REMAINS RATHER DRY...BUT GIVEN PROPENSITY FOR RECENT ARCTIC                 
FRONTS TO DROP SOME -SN WE WILL LEAN IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE               
MOIST GFS. QG FORCING IS FAVORABLE IN THE FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE...               
AND PWATS NEAR 0.30 INCHES SHOULD GIVE US A FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF -SN              
WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO DROP VIS                  
DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS IN OPEN COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SINCE                      
PERCEIVED VIS WILL BE LOWER AT NIGHT ALREADY. IF THE TREND OF THE               
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEETING BLIZZARD              
CRITERIA MAY BE NEAR AND NORTH OF A KDVL-KGFK-KROX LINE. HOWEVER...             
WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS                 
SHIFT BACK A BIT FURTHER WEST...SO THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTIONS TO               
ANSWER ABOUT THIS EVENT. THE GOING WATCH HANDLES ALL OF THIS FOR                
NOW. CERTAINLY IT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE FA WILL SEE              
GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.                                                     
DEEP LAYER RH SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE 12-21Z SAT AS ARCTIC AIR                  
DEEPENS. THE LOW LVL GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WE RETAIN 30-40KTS              
OF WIND UP TO 900MB. AS THE -SN QUICKLY EXITS WITH THE FRONT...OUR              
HAZARD WILL TRANSITION TO WIND CHILLS. WE WILL STRESS THIS DANGER               
IN OUR GOING STATEMENTS...BUT AT SOME POINT A WIND CHILL WARNING                
WILL BE REQUIRED. THE ARCTIC AIR IS QUICK TO MOVE EAST AS ANOTHER               
S/W ENTERS THE NRN ROCKIES...BUT EVEN IF 1000-500MB THICKNESSES                 
AND 925-850MB TEMPS COME UP SAT NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL                 
DOMINATE SFC COOLING. WE DROPPED LOWS A FEW MORE DEG F AND ARE                  
THUS UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE SOME 5 DEG F SAT NIGHT. THE LOW/MID LVL              
BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY SUN AS THE S/W WORKS EAST.               
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND IN FACT BOTH THE              
NAM AND GFS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS UNDER 10MB AFT 18Z              
SUN TO THE WEST OF THE RRV. WE WILL INTRODUCE SOME -SN CHANCES...               
THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY WE WILL BE ABLE TO                 
SATURATE.                                                                       
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                          
AN ACTIVE...PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD STEER PARADE OF                  
S/W`S ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH PERIOD. DUE TO DEGREE OF                    
MOISTURE AND FAST NATURE TO SYSTEMS EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF/SNOW              
EVENTS. AFTER BITTERLY COLD WEEKEND EXPECT COMMENCEMENT OF                      
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS WITH VALUES REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES               
BY MID WEEK.                                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST                  
THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPENING OF               
MOISTURE COLUMN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW CENTER AND ATTENDANT STRONG              
ARCTIC FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. WE COULD WELL SEE A LOW STRATUS                  
DECK WITH IFR CIGS TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. THERE IS ALSO              
SOME RISK OF LOWER VIS IN BR WITH THIS SCENARIO.                                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON              
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.                    
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON           
     FOR MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-027-028-030-031-040.                        
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON              
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/SCHULTZ                                                                  
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
928 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN                      
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN                
OHIO...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DURING THE LAKE MORNING AND                
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY               
AND DRAG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
ON THE EDGE ON WHAT TO DO WITH PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW                  
CURRENTLY FALLING OVER NORTHERN IL AND MOVING THIS WAY. LATEST RUC              
AND 18Z GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW SUB ZERO TEMPS AT 850 MB ALL               
NIGHT. BUT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GOOD PUSH OF WARMER AIR                 
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT. HAD HOPED TO BE ABLE TO PICK ONE               
PRECIP TYPE FOR THE UPDATE...BUT THAT UNFORNATELY WON`T BE                      
HAPPENING. SURFACE TEMPS DROPPED A DEG OR TWO MOST AREAS AFTER                  
DARK AND NOW HAVE STALLED OUT. THEY WILL LIKELY REBOUND UPWARD A                
DEGREE OR TWO BY MORNING...HOPEFULLY...OR WE`LL HAVE TO WORRY                   
ABOUT FREEZING PRECIP. SO IN SUMMARY...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH               
RA OR SN LIKELY WEST. PRECIP SHOULD NOT GET TO NE OH AND NW TILL                
09Z OR SO AND THINK PRECIP THESE AREAS SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. WILL              
HOWEVER KEEP A MENTION OF RA JUST IN CASE. LITTLE IF ANY                        
ACCUMULATION. WILL WORD FOR MAINLY STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT.                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                     
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN WITH A WARM FRONT BISECTING THE AREA                
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING FROM                 
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MARGINAL                
FOR SNOW SO WILL HAVE TO BEGIN WITH A MIX...FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE                
TO RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE UPPER                 
30S OR LOWER 40S. COLD ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE WEST HOWEVER BY               
MID AFTERNOON AND WHILE THE ACTUAL CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LIKELY                
BE LOW IN THE WEST BY AFTERNOON THE TYPE WILL BE SNOW. REAL FUN                 
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE                 
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. BY 00Z SAT 850MB TEMPS ON THE NAM SUGGEST A                 
MIX IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE GFS IS A FEW DEGREES COLDER AND ALL                   
SNOW. WILL SIDE HERE WITH THE GFS AND LEAVE OUT ANY MIX STARTING                
OUT THE EVENING FORECAST. COLD FRONT SWINGS IN QUICK AND BY 06Z                 
FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR A HZY-CAK LINE. WOULD EXPECT A BURST OF                
SNOW WITH THE FRONT AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW UVV DURING THE                
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF DRY AIR HOWEVER MOVES IN FROM THE              
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ON BALANCE WILL GO WITH CHC POPS IN THE                  
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE                    
MOISTURE IS BETTER. DOWN WINDS OF THE LAKE WILL GO WITH                         
CATEGORICAL POPS. LOTS OF ICE ON THE LAKE WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON                
ACCUMS. SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AIR AND VEERING WINDS MOVE IN                
QUICK WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO SHUT OFF THE LAKE. WILL BEGIN WITH                  
LIKELY POPS BUT WILL CUT BACK TO CHC IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY                   
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE SNOW BELT. MAY NEED                
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE               
TO WATCH THIS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MAINLY IN            
THE MORNING. SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND                   
LOWERING INVERSION BY THIS TIME. COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC BLAST                 
LINGERS MONDAY BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WARMUP SLIGHTLY  FOR MID WEEK.             
WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL                
BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE AREA. ECMWF AND GFS FAIRLY CLOSE ON TIMING             
OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH GFS LITTLE WARMER...AND TYPE OF PRECIP WITH               
BOTH MODELS ON EDGE BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW. THEREFORE WILL SHOW CHANCE OF            
RAIN/SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW                
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE            
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AT END                  
PERIOD. ECMWF SHOWING RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY KEEPING LOW                
WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST WITH GFS KEEPING TROF               
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST.              
WENT WITH DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST NARROW RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THEN            
BROUGHT COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AS THE              
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME QUESTIONS TO              
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT IT SEEMS LIKE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST               
AREA IT SHOULD BE SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LAST ABOUT 6 TO 8              
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO RETURN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS AND                
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY.                                                  
.OUTLOOK...                                                                     
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO                
45 KNOTS AND MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS. ON SUNDAY                 
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF CLE...ELSEWHERE MVFR                    
CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR BUILDING IN SUNDAY              
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. COLD                
FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN ON TUESDAY WITH NON VFR CONDITIONS.                     
NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR               
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE                 
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL               
SPREAD VERY QUICKLY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR LOW WATER              
ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.                                                    
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND                   
BEGIN TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AFTER AN INITIAL FRONT                 
PASSES. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH               
IT WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP TO WEST GALES. LOW WATER ADVISORY                 
CRITERIA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST END. BROUGHT WINDS UP TO 45              
KNOT GALES...AND 50 KNOT STORMS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. HIGH                    
PRESSURE TO PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP                   
QUICKLY AND BRING THEM AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A LITTLE BIT                    
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING A RUN TOWARD              
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND REDEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGH               
PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ061-        
     142>149-162>169.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TK                                                                   
NEAR TERM...KUBINA                                                              
SHORT TERM...TK                                                                 
LONG TERM...RANDEL                                                              
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
MARINE...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN                                                       
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
920 PM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SFC LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN ND WITH SFC TROF LOCATED              
JUST WEST OF THE MO RIVER. MODELS STILL SHOW SFC TROF DRIFTING                  
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAS STALLED OVER THE              
FAR ERN CWA...AND MODEL BL RH PLOTS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL STAY IN              
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC/NAM12 QPF ANALYS SUGGESTS THAT                    
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. CURRENT 20% LIGHT SNOW                  
STILL WORKS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT ZONES LOOK IN FAIR TO GOOD               
SHAPE AND NO NEED TO REISSUE ATTM.                                              
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                    
TWO SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL BE               
AFFECTING OUR CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST WAVE AND                    
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT               
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS FROM WATERTOWN SOUTH HAVE NOT                  
MOVED MUCH TODAY AND EXPECT THEY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN INTO THE               
EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...WITH SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH                  
ALONG WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL RH...SOME FOG COULD FORM IN THE                       
WATERTOWN AREA TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE                 
SPREADING QUICKLY OVER ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN. RADARS AND SURFACE OBS                        
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT                
SNOW/FLURRIES WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING IN. KEPT IN THE SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POP AS ONLY EXPECT A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH SNOW               
ACCUMULATION AND IT SHOULD BE LOW ON WATER EQUIVALENT. THE BIG                  
THING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL BE MOVING               
INTO THE WESTERN CWA FROM MONTANA AND WYOMING ON WEST WINDS LATER               
TONIGHT. THUS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THIS EVENING AND THEN               
STEADY OR RISE WITH PACIFIC FRONT COMING THROUGH. THE WINDS WONT                
TURN TO THE WEST UNTIL FRIDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SD AND WEST                  
CENTRAL MN.                                                                     
FRIDAY WILL HAVE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS              
MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. MAY SEE STRONGER WINDS ALONG WITH              
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BAREGROUND AREAS OF CENTRAL AND                  
NORTH CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY.                                                     
THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED UP A BIT WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING                    
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND                     
SATURDAY. THUS...FRIDAY NIGHT`S LOWS AND SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE               
TRICKY. THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY COME LATE WITH THE                     
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CAA KICKING IN. THE HIGH                     
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE EARLY AS CAA INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES               
REMAIN STEADY OR FALL LATE IN THE MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON.                 
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND                
SATURDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT              
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CURRENT SNOW COVER ALONG WITH SOME                    
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MAY BE A PROBLEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT                
AND SATURDAY. ALSO...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT                
AND SATURDAY. MAY HAVE TO ISSUE AT LEAST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR              
SATURDAY IN LATER FORECAST. WILL SEE ABOUT THE BLOWING SNOW AND                 
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.                                                           
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE VERY COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING               
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH WINDS DECREASING                
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO.                 
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                           
WILL BEGIN PERIOD KNEE DEEP IN ARCTIC AIR WITH H85 TEMPERATURES                 
AT/BELOW -25C ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. COLD AIR                     
ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH H85                          
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STATIC TILL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS              
BY 00Z. DESPITE WARMER AIR ALOFT...EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LIKELY              
TO DECOUPLE...SO WILL EXPECT SOME TEMPERATURE FALL BEFORE LEVELING              
OFF. WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF                  
CLIPPER SYSTEM. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT WITH              
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA...AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL                     
FRONTOGENISIS/BAROCLINICITY TO SUPPORT SNOW. MODELS INDICATE UPPER              
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS REGION TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME                   
DISPARITY IN THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS                    
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF STRONGEST WITH H85 TEMPS ABOVE 0C BY 12Z                       
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE RAPIDLY THURSDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL                     
FEATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR A CANADIAN AIRMASS              
TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THOUGH THIS                    
AIRMASS IS MILD COMPARED TO LAST COUPLE OF EVENTS.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SFC TROF SLIDING EAST ACROSS REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING CLOUDY                   
SKIES TO THE AREA. IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED FOR KATY TAF SITE                    
THROUGH 12Z AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN OVER SITE. SOME ISOLD/SCT                  
200-800 FOOT CLOUDS MAY ADVECT INTO KABR AREA AFT 09Z...BUT NOT                 
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CEILING. FURTHER WEST...VFR CONDS EXPECTED                 
THROUGH 10Z FOR KMBG AND KPIR BEFORE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AFT 10Z.                 
ISOLD/SCT POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH LITTLE                 
IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...MOHR                                                               
LONG TERM...CONNELLY                                                            
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1025 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TRAPPED IN BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW 925 MB FM JAMES              
VALLEY EWD THRU SWRN MN AND NWRN IA...WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FM               
W TO E IN CWA THIS AFTN...AND MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL EAST OF I29.                 
INVERSION WILL HANG TOUGH UNDER WEAK SFC RDGG AND SFC WINDS                     
RETURNING TO MORE SLY THRU EVE. SO LWRD HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEG ESP IN                
TRAPPED LWR ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SOME DENSE FOG            
PERSISTING FM NWRN IA TO SRN PART OF SWRN MN THRU AFTN AND TNGT.                
RYRHOLM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG EAST OF LN FM HON TO YKN...              
IMPROVING TO MVFR MOST PLACES WEST OF I29 BY 21Z...BUT PERSISTING               
FM MUCH OF NWRN IA AND SRN PART OF SWRN MN THRU 12Z.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
TODAY...SFC TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY               
AND CHAMBERLAIN WL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EWD. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR             
IT WL GET BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT. 00Z NAM AND GFS WERE MOVG            
THE SFC TROF THRU NEARLY ALL OF THE FA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. HOWEVER A               
QUICK GLANCE AT THE 06Z NAM AND RUC SHOWS IT STALLING AROUND THE I              
29 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY. SO THAT BEARS WATCHING...ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE            
PRETTY LIGHT TODAY. BUT WHAT A STALLING LOW LEVEL TROF WL DO...IS               
NOT ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO USHER OUT OF OUR ERN FA BECAUSE WINDS WL            
STAY SLY OVR THE ERN HALF OF OUR FA. THEREFORE SKY CONDS MAY STAY               
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR EAST. MAY             
HAVE TO UPDATE THESE WINDS BEFORE LEAVING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...            
ASSOCIATED BAND OF FLURRIES IS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND               
EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME             
FLURRIES THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT                  
ECHOES ARE HARD TO IGNORE...AND THE ERN FA IS WELL PLACED IN THE                
LEFT EXIT RGN OF A JET STREAK. CHANGED HIGH TEMPS LITTLE                        
TODAY...JUST WARMED THEM UP EVERY SO SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE LATEST                  
NAM/GFS H925 TEMPS.                                                             
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SFC WINDS WL COME AROUND TO THE S OR SE AHEAD              
OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROF TO THE WEST OF THE FA...SO THIS HAS SOME               
FOG CONCERNS DEVELOPING ESP IF THE STRATUS DOES NOT CLEAR OUT OF OUR            
ERN FA TODAY. THIS SFC TROF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL FEATURE OF             
MODERATE INTENSITY. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF              
MEASURABLE SNOW OVER MUCH OF OUR SRN FA AS THE PROFILE SATURATES UP             
BLO H5. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED...ESP AROUND 285K PER THE               
GFS WHICH DIVES SEWD FM SW SD TO ERN NEB AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...             
FOLLOWING THE JET MAX AS IT ALSO MOVES SWD. THEREFORE SOME DECENT               
LIFT IS FOUND ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW             
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT            
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS THE ERN FA FRIDAY                 
MORNING TAKING THE -SN CHCS WITH IT. HOWEVER INTERESTINGLY...THE SFC            
TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE USHERS UP STRONG WAA WITH IT               
THRU THE ERN FA LASTING THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE DECIDED TO             
KEEP A VERY SMALL CHC FOR -SN IN OUR FAR ERN FA WITH THE SFC WIND               
SHIFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD PROBABLY ONLY OCCUR IN               
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                            
THEN THE FUN BEGINS AS FRIDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...LASTING INTO                   
SATURDAY AS AN ARCTIC BLAST MOVES INTO THIS AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS             
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT A BIT FOR LATE            
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE READINGS STILL LOOK TOO WARM AS             
THEY USUALLY HANDLE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR POORLY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT              
WL COME THRU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS...WITH VERY STRONG WAA AND MIXING             
TO AROUND H9 POST FRONTAL. THIS WL USHER DOWN SOME VERY STRONG WINDS            
ALOFT. FUTURE FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY NEED SOME WIND               
CHILL ADVISORIES FM ABOUT I 90 NWD...AND MAYBE WIND ADVISORIES SOUTH            
OF I 90. OUR FAR SWRN FA MAY ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH A                  
SLIGHTLY BAGGIER SFC PRS GRAD AND LESS WINDS OFF THE SFC. OBVIOUSLY             
TEMPS WL NOT REBOUND ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT MAYBE IN OUR FAR SW                   
CORNER.                                                                         
INDICATIONS SAT NIGHT ARE THAT SKIES WL CLEAR ALLOWING COLD                     
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR SW CORNER WHO COULD STAY               
MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE STRONG H85 BAROCLINIC                 
ZONE.                                                                           
SLOW WAA BEGINS TO RETURN FM W TO E OVR THE FA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH              
THE LIGHT WINDS THRU THE ERN FA...TEMPS WL GRUDGINGLY MOVE UPWARD.              
BUT STRONG WAA IS NOTED SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS MAY NOT DROP OFF THAT              
MUCH FROM SUNDAY HIGHS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE A SMALL POP THRU THE FA              
ON MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER MID LVL WAVE MOVG                
RAPIDLY THRU THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE GFS ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER ARCTIC              
INTRUSION DOWN WITH IT MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WAS NOT BACKED UP BY THE            
ECMWF. THEREFORE LEFT TEMPS ALONE EARLY NEXT WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
 MJF/LIEBL                                                                      
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
455 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...SFC TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY               
AND CHAMBERLAIN WL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EWD. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR             
IT WL GET BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT. 00Z NAM AND GFS WERE MOVG            
THE SFC TROF THRU NEARLY ALL OF THE FA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. HOWEVER A               
QUICK GLANCE AT THE 06Z NAM AND RUC SHOWS IT STALLING AROUND THE I              
29 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY. SO THAT BEARS WATCHING...ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE            
PRETTY LIGHT TODAY. BUT WHAT A STALLING LOW LEVEL TROF WL DO...IS               
NOT ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO USHER OUT OF OUR ERN FA BECAUSE WINDS WL            
STAY SLY OVR THE ERN HALF OF OUR FA. THEREFORE SKY CONDS MAY STAY               
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR EAST. MAY             
HAVE TO UPDATE THESE WINDS BEFORE LEAVING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...            
ASSOCIATED BAND OF FLURRIES IS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND               
EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME             
FLURRIES THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT                  
ECHOES ARE HARD TO IGNORE...AND THE ERN FA IS WELL PLACED IN THE                
LEFT EXIT RGN OF A JET STREAK. CHANGED HIGH TEMPS LITTLE                        
TODAY...JUST WARMED THEM UP EVERY SO SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE LATEST                  
NAM/GFS H925 TEMPS.                                                             
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SFC WINDS WL COME AROUND TO THE S OR SE AHEAD              
OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROF TO THE WEST OF THE FA...SO THIS HAS SOME               
FOG CONCERNS DEVELOPING ESP IF THE STRATUS DOES NOT CLEAR OUT OF OUR            
ERN FA TODAY. THIS SFC TROF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL FEATURE OF             
MODERATE INTENSITY. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF              
MEASURABLE SNOW OVER MUCH OF OUR SRN FA AS THE PROFILE SATURATES UP             
BLO H5. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED...ESP AROUND 285K PER THE               
GFS WHICH DIVES SEWD FM SW SD TO ERN NEB AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...             
FOLLOWING THE JET MAX AS IT ALSO MOVES SWD. THEREFORE SOME DECENT               
LIFT IS FOUND ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW             
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT            
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MID LVL WAVE EXITS THE ERN FA FRIDAY                 
MORNING TAKING THE -SN CHCS WITH IT. HOWEVER INTERESTINGLY...THE SFC            
TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE USHERS UP STRONG WAA WITH IT               
THRU THE ERN FA LASTING THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE DECIDED TO             
KEEP A VERY SMALL CHC FOR -SN IN OUR FAR ERN FA WITH THE SFC WIND               
SHIFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD PROBABLY ONLY OCCUR IN               
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                            
THEN THE FUN BEGINS AS FRIDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...LASTING INTO                   
SATURDAY AS AN ARCTIC BLAST MOVES INTO THIS AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS             
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT A BIT FOR LATE            
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE READINGS STILL LOOK TOO WARM AS             
THEY USUALLY HANDLE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR POORLY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT              
WL COME THRU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS...WITH VERY STRONG WAA AND MIXING             
TO AROUND H9 POST FRONTAL. THIS WL USHER DOWN SOME VERY STRONG WINDS            
ALOFT. FUTURE FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY NEED SOME WIND               
CHILL ADVISORIES FM ABOUT I 90 NWD...AND MAYBE WIND ADVISORIES SOUTH            
OF I 90. OUR FAR SWRN FA MAY ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH A                  
SLIGHTLY BAGGIER SFC PRS GRAD AND LESS WINDS OFF THE SFC. OBVIOUSLY             
TEMPS WL NOT REBOUND ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT MAYBE IN OUR FAR SW                   
CORNER.                                                                         
INDICATIONS SAT NIGHT ARE THAT SKIES WL CLEAR ALLOWING COLD                     
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR SW CORNER WHO COULD STAY               
MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE STRONG H85 BAROCLINIC                 
ZONE.                                                                           
SLOW WAA BEGINS TO RETURN FM W TO E OVR THE FA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH              
THE LIGHT WINDS THRU THE ERN FA...TEMPS WL GRUDGINGLY MOVE UPWARD.              
BUT STRONG WAA IS NOTED SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS MAY NOT DROP OFF THAT              
MUCH FROM SUNDAY HIGHS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE A SMALL POP THRU THE FA              
ON MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER MID LVL WAVE MOVG                
RAPIDLY THRU THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE GFS ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER ARCTIC              
INTRUSION DOWN WITH IT MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WAS NOT BACKED UP BY THE            
ECMWF. THEREFORE LEFT TEMPS ALONE EARLY NEXT WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILINGS TO VARY GREATLY AROUND THE AREA TODAY. FOR HON...MVFR                  
CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FARTHER              
EAST IFR CEILING ARE LIKELY NEAR AND EAST OF FSD THROUGH MUCH OF THE            
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. TOWARDS SUX...LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...                  
PRODUCING PERSISTANT IFR CEILINGS AND SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM            
FOG.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
 MJF/LIEBL                                                                      
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
929 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST RUC`S HANDLING OF NORTHERN CLOUDS, AND                
THE FACT THAT THE BROAD 850 THERMAL TROF NEVER REALLY PASSES EAST OF            
OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY, WILL UPDATE TO GO FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY                    
SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY                      
FORECAST. MIGHT EVEN HAVE TO DEAL WITH STUBBORN CLOUDS IN                       
TONIGHT`S FORECAST OVER SOME NORTEHRN AREAS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CROSS               
THAT BRIDGE A LITTLE LATER TODAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
923 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH               
THE AREA ATTM...HOWEVER THE SFC REFLECTION/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
IS LAGGING BEHIND AND IS ALONG A ROCKSPRINGS TO NACOGDOCHES LINE.               
DWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-5                   
DEGREES GENERALLY EAST OF I-37. THUS EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO                    
DEVELOP IN THESE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST RUC FORECAST BRINGS                
THE FRONT TO A COTULLA TO PORT LAVACA LINE BY DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD              
FOCUS THE FOG TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WASHES OUT               
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES QUICKLY EAST                  
INTO LOUISIANA. IF DWPTS SURGE MUCH ABOVE THE MID 60S...SEA FOG                 
WILL BE BACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON SATURDAY.                             
ZONES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  76  59  70  62  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
VICTORIA          47  74  50  67  55  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            55  84  58  78  63  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
ALICE             50  79  56  73  60  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          56  71  58  67  61  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           46  81  54  75  60  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        51  78  57  72  61  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       59  69  60  69  63  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JM/75...SHORT TERM                                                              
TM/95...AVIATION                                                                
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
850 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGH WIND CRITERIA IN THE                  
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH              
GUSTS TO NEAR 65 AND 70 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT MOUNT LOCKE IN                
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS AT THE BOWL IN THE GUADALUPE                     
MOUNTAINS. HAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 08/20Z FOR                
THESE LOCATIONS...WITH THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE                    
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. REMAINDER OF PRODUCTS OUT                    
SHORTLY. /13/                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING              
FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...                    
PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AREA AND DAVIS                     
MOUNTAINS FROM 11 AM UNTIL 5 PM CST.  FIRST...MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE               
TO HIGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND FURTHER NORTH OVER THE                  
EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  WHEN NORTHWEST              
WINDS INCREASE LATER...THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD DRY/WARM THE AIR              
FURTHER.  SECONDLY...MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS.  12Z               
SOUNDINGS AT KAMA AND KMAF INDICATED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WERE               
STRONGER THAN PROGS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE RUC.  THE H5 HEIGHT                      
GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY TIGHT OVER THE AREA TODAY TOO. AS              
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA THIS                      
AFTERNOON...SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH FOR                    
SEVERAL HOURS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS                 
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.  WILL SEND UPDATED                      
PRODUCTS SHORTLY.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008/                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH                 
WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING            
GENERALLY TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.          
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.                             
12                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH                   
SATURDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND                  
EXPANDS EAST.  THE FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE             
NEXT UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY DEEPENING ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA                  
TUESDAY.  NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH               
THIS TROUGH THOUGH.  AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH             
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                                                              
A LEE TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A             
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY              
WARM THOUGH AS MOST OF THE COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA               
AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AID WARMING.  HAVE GONE ON THE               
HIGH SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERINGS.  SAID WINDS WILL BE AT OR                
ABOVE 20 MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING AND EARLY                        
AFTERNOON...BUT A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED DESPITE DRY               
AIR ENCOMPASSING THE CWA.  IT APPEARS THE BEST WINDS WILL OCCUR                 
BEFORE RH/S BOTTOM OUT.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL STILL BE                    
ELEVATED AREAWIDE DUE TO THE DRY STATE OF FUELS...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT             
IN THE HWO.                                                                     
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL             
TRANSLATE INTO FAIRLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING AS GOOD              
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES              
WILL REBOUND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...               
THEN STAY OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL             
STILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA DURING               
THIS TIME...WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR            
MOST OF THIS TIME.  THERE IS SOME HOPE OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT                
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY FROM THE BIG BEND REGION ACROSS THE                
LOWER TRANS PECOS.  THE SCANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON            
HOW MUCH UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES.  OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED            
TUESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED PRIOR TO...AND                
AFTER TUESDAY.                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST                
TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY.  20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL EXCEED 20 MPH FOR             
AWHILE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST               
NEW MEXICO PLAINS...VAN HORN AREA...UPPER TRANS PECOS...PERMIAN                 
BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SINCE MINIMUM RH/S WILL BE                
BELOW 15 PERCENT THESE AREAS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FROM               
11 AM UNTIL 5 PM CST.  WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ELSEWHERE.             
RECOVERY TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO FAIR IN MOST LOCATIONS               
WITH AFTERNOON RH/S SATURDAY DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT IN MOST                  
LOCATIONS.  20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN                 
BELOW 20 MPH MOST LOCATIONS...SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT IN THE             
OFFING.  RECOVERY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD MOST                      
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM MST THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS                    
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.                      
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM MST THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF                 
     EDDY COUNTY.                                                               
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM           
     CST /4 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...                   
     ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...                  
     DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...               
     HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REAGAN...                  
     REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...UPTON...VAN                 
     HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.                             
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 2 PM            
     CST /1 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...                   
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
709 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING              
FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...                    
PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AREA AND DAVIS                     
MOUNTAINS FROM 11 AM UNTIL 5 PM CST.  FIRST...MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE               
TO HIGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND FURTHER NORTH OVER THE                  
EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  WHEN NORTHWEST              
WINDS INCREASE LATER...THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD DRY/WARM THE AIR              
FURTHER.  SECONDLY...MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS.  12Z               
SOUNDINGS AT KAMA AND KMAF INDICATED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WERE               
STRONGER THAN PROGS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE RUC.  THE H5 HEIGHT                      
GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY TIGHT OVER THE AREA TODAY TOO. AS              
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA THIS                      
AFTERNOON...SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH FOR                    
SEVERAL HOURS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS                 
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.  WILL SEND UPDATED                      
PRODUCTS SHORTLY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH                 
WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING            
GENERALLY TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.          
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.                             
12                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH                   
SATURDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND                  
EXPANDS EAST.  THE FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE             
NEXT UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY DEEPENING ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA                  
TUESDAY.  NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH               
THIS TROUGH THOUGH.  AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH             
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                                                              
A LEE TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A             
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY              
WARM THOUGH AS MOST OF THE COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA               
AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AID WARMING.  HAVE GONE ON THE               
HIGH SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERINGS.  SAID WINDS WILL BE AT OR                
ABOVE 20 MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING AND EARLY                        
AFTERNOON...BUT A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED DESPITE DRY               
AIR ENCOMPASSING THE CWA.  IT APPEARS THE BEST WINDS WILL OCCUR                 
BEFORE RH/S BOTTOM OUT.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL STILL BE                    
ELEVATED AREAWIDE DUE TO THE DRY STATE OF FUELS...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT             
IN THE HWO.                                                                     
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL             
TRANSLATE INTO FAIRLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING AS GOOD              
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES              
WILL REBOUND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...               
THEN STAY OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL             
STILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA DURING               
THIS TIME...WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR            
MOST OF THIS TIME.  THERE IS SOME HOPE OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT                
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY FROM THE BIG BEND REGION ACROSS THE                
LOWER TRANS PECOS.  THE SCANT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON            
HOW MUCH UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES.  OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED            
TUESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED PRIOR TO...AND                
AFTER TUESDAY.                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST                
TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY.  20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL EXCEED 20 MPH FOR             
AWHILE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST               
NEW MEXICO PLAINS...VAN HORN AREA...UPPER TRANS PECOS...PERMIAN                 
BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SINCE MINIMUM RH/S WILL BE                
BELOW 15 PERCENT THESE AREAS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FROM               
11 AM UNTIL 5 PM CST.  WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ELSEWHERE.             
RECOVERY TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO FAIR IN MOST LOCATIONS               
WITH AFTERNOON RH/S SATURDAY DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT IN MOST                  
LOCATIONS.  20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN                 
BELOW 20 MPH MOST LOCATIONS...SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT IN THE             
OFFING.  RECOVERY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD MOST                      
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM MST THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS                    
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.                      
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM           
     CST /4 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...                   
     ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...                  
     DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...               
     HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REAGAN...                  
     REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...UPTON...VAN                 
     HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
12/67                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
911 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS HAS EXPIRED.  THE WIND AT MOUNT           
LOCKE HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 10 MPH SO WILL NOT EXTEND THE WARNING.               
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE           
REGION THIS MORNING WITH A NORTH WIND PICKING UP BEHIND IT.  EXPECT             
OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED NORTHWEST TO NORTH                  
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY BECOME SUSTAINED                
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT THE KMAF TERMINAL FOR A                 
BRIEF PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                  
STATE...AND WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS MOST                  
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.                   
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DAVIS                  
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL HIGH WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS              
MORNING. TAKING A LOOK AT THE RUC13 AND NAM12 MODELS...700MB                    
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 40KTS THROUGH                  
ROUGHLY 15Z. GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...WE HAVE                
OPTED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS                   
UNTIL 15Z. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG A JAYTON TO                   
GAIL TO GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST                
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTY GIVEN 5MB/3           
HOUR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THESE PRESSURE RISES                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER...THUS THE               
STRONGER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STAY GENERALLY NORTH OF A                  
TATUM NEW MEXICO TO BIG SPRING LINE THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE COLD              
FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WE CAN STILL EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES             
TODAY GIVEN A DRY AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION. FOR                         
TOMORROW...THE CURRENT PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF. A MID-                 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY                 
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL AID IN SENDING ANOTHER WEAK                   
FRONT/WIND SHIFT INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. LITTLE COOLING               
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GIVEN 850MB WARMING...WE WILL                
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON                   
FRIDAY. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS EAST                
TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO ORGANIZE LATE IN THE DAY.                   
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON                         
SUNDAY...SIGNALING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.                           
MEANWHILE...WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER                 
THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING               
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A                
SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUT OF MEXICO INTO              
WEST TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                   
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MENTIONED PERIOD...AND WE WILL                
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE               
STOCKTON PLATEAU AND BIG BEND REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN                 
CHANCES CREEP NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS ON TUESDAY AS A              
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS AND               
ECMWF CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LATEST MEX              
GUIDANCE TRENDING MUCH LOWER WITH POPS. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE              
THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN                  
SHOWERS ACROSS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN               
PORTION OF THE CWA.                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.              
20 FT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THIS                       
FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH POSSIBLE NORTH              
OF INTERSTATE 20 UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY               
BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD              
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL              
LIKELY AFFECT THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...WHERE WESTERLY 20             
FT WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE             
ADJACENT EDDY/REEVES COUNTY PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN                 
PLACE...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LIKELY DROPPING BETWEEN 10 AND 15                
PERCENT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY               
MET ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS            
AREAS OF EDDY/CULBERSON/REEVES COUNTIES FOR 1-2 HOURS THIS                      
AFTERNOON. THINK THE DURATION WILL BE BRIEF ENOUGH...AND AREA SHOULD            
BE SMALL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE...BUT WILL              
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER             
PLANNING FORECAST. LIKE YESTERDAY...CAUTION IS VERY MUCH ADVISED                
WHEN WORKING WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS OUTDOORS TODAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
606 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED NORTHWEST TO NORTH                  
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY BECOME SUSTAINED                
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT THE KMAF TERMINAL FOR A                 
BRIEF PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                  
STATE...AND WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS MOST                  
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.                   
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DAVIS                  
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL HIGH WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS              
MORNING. TAKING A LOOK AT THE RUC13 AND NAM12 MODELS...700MB                    
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 40KTS THROUGH                  
ROUGHLY 15Z. GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...WE HAVE                
OPTED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS                   
UNTIL 15Z. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG A JAYTON TO                   
GAIL TO GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST                
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTY GIVEN 5MB/3           
HOUR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THESE PRESSURE RISES                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER...THUS THE               
STRONGER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STAY GENERALLY NORTH OF A                  
TATUM NEW MEXICO TO BIG SPRING LINE THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE COLD              
FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WE CAN STILL EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES             
TODAY GIVEN A DRY AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION. FOR                         
TOMORROW...THE CURRENT PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF. A MID-                 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY                 
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL AID IN SENDING ANOTHER WEAK                   
FRONT/WIND SHIFT INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. LITTLE COOLING               
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GIVEN 850MB WARMING...WE WILL                
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON                   
FRIDAY. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS EAST                
TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO ORGANIZE LATE IN THE DAY.                   
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON                         
SUNDAY...SIGNALING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.                           
MEANWHILE...WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER                 
THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING               
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A                
SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUT OF MEXICO INTO              
WEST TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                   
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MENTIONED PERIOD...AND WE WILL                
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE               
STOCKTON PLATEAU AND BIG BEND REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN                 
CHANCES CREEP NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS ON TUESDAY AS A              
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS AND               
ECMWF CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LATEST MEX              
GUIDANCE TRENDING MUCH LOWER WITH POPS. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE              
THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN                  
SHOWERS ACROSS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN               
PORTION OF THE CWA.                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.              
20 FT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THIS                       
FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH POSSIBLE NORTH              
OF INTERSTATE 20 UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY               
BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD              
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL              
LIKELY AFFECT THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...WHERE WESTERLY 20             
FT WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE             
ADJACENT EDDY/REEVES COUNTY PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN                 
PLACE...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LIKELY DROPPING BETWEEN 10 AND 15                
PERCENT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY               
MET ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS            
AREAS OF EDDY/CULBERSON/REEVES COUNTIES FOR 1-2 HOURS THIS                      
AFTERNOON. THINK THE DURATION WILL BE BRIEF ENOUGH...AND AREA SHOULD            
BE SMALL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE...BUT WILL              
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER             
PLANNING FORECAST. LIKE YESTERDAY...CAUTION IS VERY MUCH ADVISED                
WHEN WORKING WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS OUTDOORS TODAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE               
     FOLLOWING ZONES...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/06                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
529 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DAVIS                  
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL HIGH WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS              
MORNING. TAKING A LOOK AT THE RUC13 AND NAM12 MODELS...700MB                    
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 40KTS THROUGH                  
ROUGHLY 15Z. GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...WE HAVE                
OPTED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS                   
UNTIL 15Z. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG A JAYTON TO                   
GAIL TO GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST                
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTY GIVEN 5MB/3           
HOUR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THESE PRESSURE RISES                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER...THUS THE               
STRONGER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STAY GENERALLY NORTH OF A                  
TATUM NEW MEXICO TO BIG SPRING LINE THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE COLD              
FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WE CAN STILL EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES             
TODAY GIVEN A DRY AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION. FOR                         
TOMORROW...THE CURRENT PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF. A MID-                 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY                 
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL AID IN SENDING ANOTHER WEAK                   
FRONT/WIND SHIFT INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. LITTLE COOLING               
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GIVEN 850MB WARMING...WE WILL                
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON                   
FRIDAY. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS EAST                
TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO ORGANIZE LATE IN THE DAY.                   
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON                         
SUNDAY...SIGNALING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.                           
MEANWHILE...WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TRIES TO ORGANIZE OVER                 
THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING               
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A                
SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUT OF MEXICO INTO              
WEST TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                   
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MENTIONED PERIOD...AND WE WILL                
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE               
STOCKTON PLATEAU AND BIG BEND REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN                 
CHANCES CREEP NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS ON TUESDAY AS A              
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS AND               
ECMWF CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LATEST MEX              
GUIDANCE TRENDING MUCH LOWER WITH POPS. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE              
THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN                  
SHOWERS ACROSS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN               
PORTION OF THE CWA.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.              
20 FT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THIS                       
FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH POSSIBLE NORTH              
OF INTERSTATE 20 UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY               
BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD              
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL              
LIKELY AFFECT THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...WHERE WESTERLY 20             
FT WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE             
ADJACENT EDDY/REEVES COUNTY PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN                 
PLACE...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LIKELY DROPPING BETWEEN 10 AND 15                
PERCENT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY               
MET ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS            
AREAS OF EDDY/CULBERSON/REEVES COUNTIES FOR 1-2 HOURS THIS                      
AFTERNOON. THINK THE DURATION WILL BE BRIEF ENOUGH...AND AREA SHOULD            
BE SMALL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE...BUT WILL              
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER             
PLANNING FORECAST. LIKE YESTERDAY...CAUTION IS VERY MUCH ADVISED                
WHEN WORKING WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS OUTDOORS TODAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              58  37  69  36  /   0   0   0   0                    
CARLSBAD NM                63  37  70  35  /   0   0   0   0                    
DRYDEN TX                  66  38  75  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  39  73  40  /   0   0   0   0                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  37  64  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
HOBBS NM                   59  33  67  31  /   0   0   0   0                    
MARFA TX                   59  28  67  31  /   0   0   0   0                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  36  68  36  /   0   0   0   0                    
ODESSA TX                  58  37  68  36  /   0   0   0   0                    
WINK TX                    63  35  73  34  /   0   0   0   0                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE               
     FOLLOWING ZONES...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/06                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
250 AM MST SAT FEB 9 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING NORTHWEST                 
MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
DIGS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS            
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE            
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WITH STRONG CAA EVIDENT BY SFC TEMPERATURES              
IN THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF                               
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN ADVECTING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND TODAY IN WESTERLY LOW LEVEL                
DOWNSLOPE AHEAD OF THE CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS...HOWEVER TRENDED             
COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT MIXING ONCE AGAIN                
TODAY.                                                                          
BOTH NAM/GFS APPEAR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ARCTIC COLD FRONT              
BACKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT RAISING CONCERNS FOR FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE         
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS. BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS              
SUGGEST A CONSIDERABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION GRADUALLY SUPPORTING SOME            
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER                
WILL APPROACH -10C ALLOWING THE INTRODUCTION OF ICE/FLURRIES TOWARD             
MORNING.                                                                        
RELUCTANT TO WARM TEMPERATURES MUCH ON SUNDAY WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS               
ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO            
THE 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHILE THE WESTERN ZONES MAY BEGIN              
TO MIX OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASING CHANCES FOR INSOLATION             
ACROSS THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A DECENT DIURNAL CLIMB WITH HIGHS                
REACHING THE UPPER 30S.                                                         
MONDAY...SOME WARMING WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A                 
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ADDS A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL                   
FLOW...HOWEVER ANY WARMING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT            
ARRIVES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TRENDED HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND                     
INCREASED POPS AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE                 
AREA. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES             
MONDAY EVENING AND EXPANDED AN AREA OF FLURRIES EAST INTO PORTIONS              
OF WESTERN KANSAS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION IS                  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03-05Z ON TUE WITH              
CIGS LOWERING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT               
BACKS INTO THE AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LEADING             
EDGE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS IN LOW CIGS/AREAS OF FZDZ AND BR/FG. MVFR                
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13-15Z ON TUE.                                     
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCGUIRE                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1226 AM EST SAT FEB 9 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1008 PM EST)...                                              
FCST FOR THE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER            
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS                
BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. PER 00Z RUC...              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 285K THETA SFC IS BEING MAXIMIZED IN ERN WI            
AND THAT IS WHERE RADARS SHOW THE BEST RADAR RETURNS. ANOTHER ARC OF            
-SN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL WI JUST N OF VORT MAX            
TRACK (DEFORMATION ZONE).                                                       
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER 00Z RUC AND                        
EXTRAPOLATION OF -SN CURRENTLY OVER WI SUGGEST ROUGHLY THE SE HALF              
OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE SOME -SN OVERNIGHT. MOST PERSISTENT -SN               
WILL BE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL                  
OCCUR. INHERITED FCST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 1 TO              
1.5 INCHES SHOULD COVER SNOW AMOUNTS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 355 PM EST)...                                      
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELTS SATURDAY            
EVENING INTO SUNDAY...                                                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACRS             
NAMERICA WITH TROFFING IN THE ARCTIC AND POLAR BRANCHES CENTERED                
NEAR HUDSON BAY/THE MS RIVER VALLEY. POLAR BRANCH SHRTWV NOTED                  
MOVING INTO WI SUPPORTING AN AREA OF -SN FM CNTRL MN INTO NW WI                 
WHERE MOIST 12Z MPX SDNG SUGS ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED ENUF TO                   
SUPPORT PCPN. EARLIER TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW SHOWED A VERY DRY LYR BTWN             
H9-7...SO LTL GOING ON LOCALLY WITH WEAK RDG OVHD...JUST SOME MID               
AND HI CLD NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TO THE SW. FARTHER                  
UPSTREAM...A MORE POTENT SHRTWV NOTED DIGGING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.            
H3 WIND SPEEDS APRCHG 150KT NOTED WITHIN UPR JET CORE ACCOMPANYING              
THIS SYS AND ORIENTED ALG SHARP GRADIENT OF H3 HGT RISES.                       
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                            
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TNGT IS POTENTIAL SN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV               
NOW DRIFTING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST. FOCUS FOR SAT SHIFTS TO TIMING/              
IMPACT OF POTENT SHRTWV NOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...SPECIFICALLY                
SN/AND ONSET OF POTENTIALLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE W.            
FOR TNGT INTO SAT MRNG...LO PRES OVER THE UPR MIDWEST FCST TO DRIFT             
INTO NRN LK MI BY 12Z SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING ON THE                    
280-285K SFCS (H65-8) FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA              
IN ADVANCE OF THIS LO. SINCE THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MOISTENING OFF              
LI MI...OPTED TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY NEAR THE LK MI SHORE FM LATE            
TNGT INTO SAT MRNG BEFORE THE SFC LO/ISENTROPIC LIFT TRACKS TO THE              
NE AND A WEAK RDG AXIS MOVES OVHD IN ITS WAKE. 1-2G/KG SPECIFIC                 
HUMIDITY NOTED IN THE H7-75 LYR...SO EXPECT AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF              
SN TO FALL DURING THE 9 HR PD OF PCPN IN THIS AREA. EXPECT LTL SN TO            
THE NW WITH RDG AXIS BTWN LO PRES AREA AND APRCHG COLD FNT                      
ASSOCIATED WITH BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV.                                        
ON SAT AFTN...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF                 
BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV AND ARCTIC FNT...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO REACH               
IWD JUST ARND 19Z AND THEN P53-ESC ARND 00Z. SHARP PRES RISE/CAD                
BEHIND THE BNDRY IN CONCERT WITH 45KT WINDS IN THE MIXED LYR WHERE              
LAPSE RATES WL BE ENHANCED BY THE STRONG CAD SUG SUBSTANTIAL MIXING             
TO THE SFC...SO LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS/BLSN TO DVLP QUICKLY AFT FROPA             
AS TEMPS FALL. ATMOSPHERE WL BE RATHER DRY (PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH)...SO            
A WHOLE LOT OF SN NOT ON TAP WITH QUICK MOVING FNT EVEN THOUGH                  
VIGOROUS 12Z HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW WL TEND              
TO SQUEEZE OUT THE MEAGER MSTR AVBL. THERE WL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT               
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W...WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES WL LIKELY             
FALL BEFORE 24Z.                                                                
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                               
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST NORTH OF SAULT STE MARIE SATURDAY EVENING              
LEAVING 25-30MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN UPR MI AND LK                 
SUPERIOR. STRONG BURST OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WINDS IN                
WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT (AIDED BY 10MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE) SHOULD                   
SWEEP INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY LATE EVENING. AFTERWARD...STRONG                  
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT ARE A FUNCTION OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT               
MAINTAINING THROUGH 12Z SUN. H95-H85 WINDS FM WEST TO NORTHWEST                 
ALLOW MOST CONCENTRATED CONVERGENCE AND LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO               
MOVE INTO ONTONAGON TO BEGIN THE EVENING AND IN THE SNOWBELTS EAST              
OF MUNISING AFTER LATE SAT EVENING. H85 TEMPS LOWERING BLO -20C IN              
THE MIXED LAYER LEAD TO VERY SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE WHICH WON`T BE                
SUITABLE FOR LARGE ACCUMS...BUT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT IN YIELDING              
SEVERELY REDUCED VSBY OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY             
AND IN ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTIES IN THE NE CWA. A CONCERN ON                  
KEWEENAW IS A MORE WNW WIND DIRECTION WHICH MAY SHUT OFF THE MORE               
CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF CALUMET AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE              
OF SNOW/WIND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO SHADOW FM ISLE ROYALE.               
AREAS WHERE THE MAX LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE -12C TO -18C (BETTER SNOW            
GROWTH) LAYER ALSO INDICATE THIS TREND WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OVR                  
ONTONAGON AND ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES.                                              
SINCE AM NOT QUITE SURE HOW KEWEENAW COUNTY WILL WORK OUT AFTER THE             
EVENING FOR THE MEETING OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OPT TO KEEP                 
BLIZZARD WATCH GOING. PREVIOUS SET TIMES FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCHES               
LOOKED FINE. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND              
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT ZONES DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING THE LK EFFECT            
SNOW BANDS FARTHER INLAND/SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND VERY LOW WIND            
CHILLS. SPEAKING OF THE WIND CHILLS ADDED MENOMINEE AND DELTA INTO              
THE GOING WIND CHILL WATCH. EVENTUALLY SOME TYPE OF HEADLINE...BE IT            
WIND CHILL ADVY OR WINTER WEATHER ADVY (SNOW/BLSN/WIND CHILL                    
COMBO)...WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS OF THE CWA SATURDAY             
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                                              
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC BY LATE SUNDAY WITH LK EFFECT             
SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW DIMINISHING OVER THE NW SNOW BELTS BY                
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FM THE NW               
WINDS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTIAL                 
CLEARING AND PLUMMETING TEMPS OVR WEST INTERIOR. FOLLOWING HPC                  
PREFERENCE OF ECMWF IN THE UPCOMING WEEK RESULTS IN WEAK LOW                    
PRESSURE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING GREAT LAKES MON-TUE. HIGHEST            
CHANCES IN THE CWA APPEAR OVR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ANOTHER LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION ON THU. GFS MORE EMPHATIC IN                 
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY LATE WEEK BUT ECMWF NOT AS               
AMPLIFIED. CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED NOT HIGH AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT             
DISAGREEMENTS BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES NOT POINTING TO              
ANY ONE DIRECTION EITHER. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO/HPC                                  
GUIDANCE ARE PREFERRED FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER.              
MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY MVFR VIS IN FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD                    
DAYBREAK...BUT MORE LIKELY SAT MORNING AS SW WINDS AHEAD OF                     
APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (WIDESPREAD             
MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT OVER MN RIGHT NOW) INTO THE AREA. STRONG/SHARP            
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSING LATE IN THE AFTN SHOULD BRING A DRAMATIC              
FALL TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SN/BLSN. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN               
PREVAIL WELL BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD THRU SUN MORNING DUE TO STRONG             
WNW WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW/BLSN.                                            
AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND IFR VIS            
IN -SN/BR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS NRN FRINGE OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH            
LOW PRES OVER WI SPREADS NE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME SAT                   
MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS LOW PRES AND PCPN SHIFT E OF THE AREA. VIS             
WILL TREND VFR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT ABOVE MVFR.                     
STRONG/SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING                 
WILL DROP VIS TO IFR IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE              
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SAT EVENING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT NW GALES TO DVLP OVER WRN LK SUP BEHIND STRONG COLD FNT ON               
SAT AFTN AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE LK BY EARLY EVNG. STORM                 
FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATER SAT NGT/EARLY SUN IN             
SHARP CYC NW FLOW BEHIND DEEP LO PRES MOVING INTO SE CAN BEFORE LO              
MOVES QUICKLY AWAY AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS SUN AFTN. RELATIVELY              
LGT WINDS WL PREVAIL MON THRU WED WITH NEXT DEEPER LO FCST TO TRACK             
WELL TO THE S EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON            
     FOR MIZ001>003.                                                            
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ009>013.                                                  
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR MIZ085.                                                                
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ084.                                                      
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR            
     MIZ006-007.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.             
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266.             
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-             
     265.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LSZ162-263.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1150 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
INCREASING LIFT EAST OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO                
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WILL ALLOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD              
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS. THIS              
WILL BRING VISIBILITY DOWN INTO IFR AT TIMES. SNOW WILL QUICKLY                 
TAPER OFF AS AN INITIAL COLD FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BY MID-MORNING.                
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND                 
THIS FRONT... WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER BAND OF LGT SNOW                
WILL ACCOMPANY AN ARCTIC FRONT TOMORROW EVENING...WITH WINDS                    
SHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST AND INTENSIFYING FURTHER TOWARD 06Z.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1055 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                            
UPDATE...                                                                       
SFC LOW BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN NOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO                  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND UPSTREAM                          
OBSERVATIONS DEPICTING THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE                    
ACCENT...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND AN EXPANSION IN LGT PCPN                   
REPORTS ACROSS EASTERN IL. MORE PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN                
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FEATURE ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL              
PROFILE TO WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME                     
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS REMAINS A CONCERN LOCALLY TONIGHT...                  
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AS THIS MOISTURE TRANSLATES                   
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.                                           
SFC TEMPERATURES PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND               
FREEZING...WITH LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH INTO THE TOLEDO AREA NOW IN                
THE 33-35F RANGE. CHECK OF THE LATEST 00Z NAM SOUNDING DATA                     
INDICATES A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF            
RAIN MIX WITH THE SNOW FROM ROUGHLY ANN ARBOR-DETROIT SOUTHWARD.                
THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AFTER 09Z ACROSS THIS                 
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MODEST FORCING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT                  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09-14Z EARLY THIS                
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM I-69 NORTH WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILE                  
WILL CLEARLY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW AND WHERE MORE PRONOUNCED            
FORCING WILL EXIST. WILL CUT INTO AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OHIO              
BORDER COUNTIES GIVEN THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING BASED                
ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM THERMAL TRENDS.                                         
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008                              
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                         
VERY LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN                 
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT LOCATION ACROSS THE TRI                  
CITIES AND THUMB. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT ALONG               
LEADING THETA E BUBBLE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THE RUC HAS A              
GREAT HANDLE ON. KDTX RADAR IS GIVING THE DRIZZLE LOOK BEHIND THIS              
SNOW ACTIVITY AND EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE WITH THE SATURATED                 
LOWER TROPOSPHERE. HAVE CUT THE POPS THIS EVENING BACK DOWN TO                  
CHANCE AS METARS HAVE BEEN COMING IN ONLY A TRACE. DESPITE                      
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH BELOW FREEZING...NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGE                   
HEADACHES DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS AREA ROADWAYS SHOULD BE HEAVILY            
TREATED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY HOLD STEADY JUST UNDER THE              
FREEZING MARK.                                                                  
DESPITE WEAK CONTINUED WARMING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS BULLISH ON ALL               
SNOW MENTION LATER TONIGHT IN THE BUFFER SOUNDINGS AND IN AGREEMENT             
WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN RESIDENCE NORTH OF THE IOWAN SURFACE             
REFLECTION.  TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THE            
OTHER OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN                   
QUASI-CONFLUENT FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN A SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM                  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTWARD TO FRANKFORT MICHIGAN BY THE END             
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
AM FAIRLY IMPRESSED WITH THE THERMODYNAMICS OVERNIGHT AS LOW STATIC             
STABILITY EXISTS FROM 900MB UPWARD.  GIVEN MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC             
ENVIRONMENT...FEEL THERE ARE NO NEGATIVE ISSUES REGARDING MOISTURE.             
ON THE OTHER HAND...SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY                          
LACKLUSTER...GIVEN RAGGED APPEARANCE TO MIDLEVEL VORTS...LACK OF ANY            
OBVIOUS JET DYNAMICS...AND WEAK MODELED FRONTOGENESIS.  SO IT                   
APPEARS...FORCING FOR SNOW WILL BE TIED STRICTLY TO 285K ISENTROPIC             
LIFT/WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH THE A LACK OF AN                         
INVERSION...AN EXPECTED SATURATED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH 400MB...THERE              
IS A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 1 TO 2              
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR EVERYONE WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS                
(BEST BET UP NORTH CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW).  HAVE SLOWED THE                     
ONSET...AFTER 6Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY FROM 9-12Z.                       
DID DROP LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS WET BULB PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW            
A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOWS MOVE IN...AT OR JUST               
UNDER 30 DEGREES.                                                               
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE             
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR POISED TO INFILTRATE THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY                
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY                
COLD WIND CHILLS. THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS             
STILL FORECAST TO RACE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY                 
EVENING PER 12Z MODEL SUITE AND DEVELOP INTO A CUT OFF CIRCULATION              
BY SUN MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN                
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY...THEN MERGE WITH THE SURFACE               
LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE             
RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD END THE SNOWFALL BY LATE                    
SATURDAY MORNING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE HOWEVER              
WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT SATURDAY EVENING...LIKELY LEADING TO            
BRIEF YET INTENSE BURST OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.                                
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF            
THE STATE WILL QUICKLY RACE ACROSS SE MI SATURDAY EVENING. THE 12Z              
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA.                
THIS AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY GET ADVECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY            
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS ARE STILL             
FORECAST TO DROP FROM AROUND -8C 00Z SUN TO AROUND -25C BY 12Z SUN.             
A DECENT ISALLOBARIC COUPLET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE FRONT                   
THROUGH THE STATE SAT EVENING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF POTENTIAL                
TEMPERATURE AND OMEGA INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD                    
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITHIN STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE EARLY SUNDAY              
MORNING...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 45            
KNOT WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THUS WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50              
MPH SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC                  
AIRMASS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY                        
MORNING...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE             
TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL                    
READINGS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT THERE            
WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY HOWEVER NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT A            
HAZARD GIVEN THE HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.                           
THE UPPER LOW AND ARCTIC AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED IN              
THIS FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE             
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD STILL HOWEVER ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BELOW              
ZERO IN MANY PLACES BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING EARLY NEXT             
WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT              
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT WAVE FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS               
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ALL               
DEPICT SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY            
NIGHT. FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME            
MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS. THUS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF              
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS STAGE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN             
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND CANADIAN             
ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TUESDAY. GIVEN THE            
UPPER AIR PATTERN...PREFER THE MORE SOUTHERLY ECMWF TRACK...WHICH               
KEEPS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN THE COLDER AIR...INDICATING ANY                 
LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE             
TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN THE WAKE             
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE IMPENDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT             
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF              
LAKE HURON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.                
VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH A              
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY APPROACH             
45 KNOTS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. IF CURRENT                 
MODEL TRENDS HOLD...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNINGS              
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC                 
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-         
     LHZ464...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                
     GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-           
     LHZ443-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM                   
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....MR                                                                 
UPDATE.......MR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....SC                                                                 
MARINE.......SC                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
355 AM CST SAT FEB 9 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT AND DURATION OF BLIZZARD FORCE                
WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW. CURRENT SNOW BAND IS FAIRLY NARROW AS              
IT MOVES ACROSS ERN ND... AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE BEHIND THE SNOW.              
SO EXPECTING 3-4 HOUR WORST VSBY CONDITIONS AS BAND TRANSITS THE                
AREA. HAVE STUCK WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS FOR BLIZZARD VERSUS                   
ADVISORY AREAS.  THREAT FOR SUSTAINED LOW VSBYS IS GREATEST WHERE               
RECENT SNOWPACK WAS MOST BLOWABLE...AND NEW ANOW AMTS ARE EXPECTED              
TO BE HIGHEST...MAINLY TO WEST AND NORTH OF GFK-FAR.                            
ATTM THE SFC LOW HAS JUST CROSSED INTO NWRN MN WITH THE COLD FRONTAL            
BAND MOVING INTO AN HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-VALLEY CITY LINE. RUC AND               
NAM40 BRING SFC-850 WIND CORE ALG THE ERN ND CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z...            
WITH A REDUCTION IN COUPLING AFT 15Z AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS                
NWRN MN. COLD AND DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA              
THIS AFTERNOON AND CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL CONDITIONS...FIRST IN            
NERN ND...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT WILL             
ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING LATER TDY TO COVER TONIGHTS EXTREME WIND             
CHILL CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WX                    
ADVISORIES ALSO CONTAIN HAZARDOUS WIND CHILL CONDITIONS FOR TDY.                
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUITE COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST                          
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM COLD BRING              
LIGHT SNOW AND A SLIGHT WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...REACHING             
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.                               
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM            
A MORE ZONAL 500MB FLOW TO MORE AMPLIFICATION BY THE END OF THE                 
EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT DO HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TROF                 
PASSAGES. INITIAL 500MB TROF AND SURFACE FRONT PASS ON TUE...SO KEPT            
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST. WITH MORE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH            
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND RAPID SURFACE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS...COULD               
SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ON WED AND WED NIGHT. THEN...A SURFACE               
HIGH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...SO KEPT                 
FORECAST DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS...LOOK FOR THEM TO MODERATE TO NEAR               
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS OVER FAR ERN ND INTO MN WILL            
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE FA. CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR             
RANGES IN ERN ND BY LATE FORENOON...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH               
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVER NWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AS              
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA...BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW                  
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACORSS NCNTRL MN. STRONG             
N-NW WINDS WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH                    
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW.                                    
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                 
     NDZ027-029-030-039-049-052-053.                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-           
     024-026-028-038-054.                                                       
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ008-016.            
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                 
     MNZ001>003-005-008-013>015-029.                                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                 
     MNZ006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ004-007.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUST/HOPPES/RIDDLE                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1145 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MAKING VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS               
AND JUST MOVED THROUGH SAN ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION. LATEST                  
MODELS PROG THIS BOUNDARY TO EASE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES                       
GENERALLY AROUND 10Z BUT THE PUSH DOESN`T APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO               
COUNTER FOG FORMATION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM BY 9Z AREA WIDE              
WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z SAT. VFR              
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF SAT.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2008/                          
UPDATE...IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH                
THE AREA ATTM...HOWEVER THE SFC REFLECTION/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
IS LAGGING BEHIND AND IS ALONG A ROCKSPRINGS TO NACOGDOCHES LINE.               
DWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-5                   
DEGREES GENERALLY EAST OF I-37. THUS EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO                    
DEVELOP IN THESE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST RUC FORECAST BRINGS                
THE FRONT TO A COTULLA TO PORT LAVACA LINE BY DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD              
FOCUS THE FOG TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WASHES OUT               
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES QUICKLY EAST                  
INTO LOUISIANA. IF DWPTS SURGE MUCH ABOVE THE MID 60S...SEA FOG                 
WILL BE BACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON SATURDAY.                             
ZONES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  76  59  70  62  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
VICTORIA          47  74  50  67  55  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            55  84  58  78  63  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
ALICE             50  79  56  73  60  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          56  71  58  67  61  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           46  81  54  75  60  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        51  78  57  72  61  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       59  69  60  69  63  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JM/75...SHORT TERM                                                              
JR/19...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
231 PM MST SAT FEB 9 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE 7               
DAY PERIOD FOLLOWED BY FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES TONIGHT/SUNDAY              
AND POPS/WX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.                                       
AT 21Z LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS LOCATED (PER SURFACE OBS              
AND 88D REFLECTIVITY) FROM SIDNEY AND IMPERIAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST               
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF RED WILLOW COUNTY AND TO THE EAST               
OF NORTON KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT (GLD CWA) WELL                
INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 50S WHILE NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT (BEHIND)                
TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE 20S WITH 10 AT                  
VALENTINE AND AINSWORTH.                                                        
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                          
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...PER RUC/NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH FORECASTS                    
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE EXTREME EAST/NORTHEAST CORNER OF                
THE AREA BY 03Z THEN SPREAD WEST INTO THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE                
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TYPICALLY THE MODELS UNDER DO               
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION (AND TODAYS MODELS ARE FURTHER WEST THAN               
WHAT YESTERDAYS HAD) AND THE SPEED. HAVE USED THE GFS AS A RESULT               
AS ITS FURTHER WEST FASTER. 18Z NAM JUST COMING IN AND HAS MATCHED              
UP WITH THE GFS AND RUC NOW IN A QUICKER DETERIORATION OF                       
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
WITH THAT SAID NEXT ISSUE IS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. CURRENT                  
OBSERVATIONS IN NEBRASKA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT SHOW SOME                   
LIGHT SNOW AND FOG IN AN AREA OF 700-600 FRONTOGENESIS AND BETTER               
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COLD AIRMASS. MOST OF THIS                  
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF OUR AREA AND GFS QPF POINTS THIS OUT                   
PRETTY WELL. BY 12Z HOWEVER THIS AREA SHIFTS INTO THE CENTER OF                 
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE                
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAVE PULLED FREEZING PRECIPITATION              
AND EXPANDED THE FOG. WILL BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT TO THE LIGHT                    
FREEZING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT RIGHT NOW JUST NOT CONFIDENT               
IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. BY LATE MORNING TEMP/DP SPREADS REMAIN LOW                  
WITH VIS FORECASTS FROM THE NAM SHOWING SOME RESTRICTIONS. WILL                 
ASSUME THE GFS WOULD BE DOING THE SAME BUT FURTHER WEST...HAVE                  
KEPT SOME FOG GOING AS A RESULT. EVEN AFTER 21Z SOME FOG MAY                    
LINGER AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO POSSIBLY ADDRESS IT. IF THE               
18Z NAM VERIFIES THE FOG MAY REDEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING IF IT              
ISNT ALREADY ONGOING LATE IN THE DAY.                                           
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY BUT LATEST GUIDANCE IN                    
BETTER AGREEMENT. 850 TEMPS UNMODIFIED (WORKS BEST IN THESE                     
SITUATIONS) SUGGESTS READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE           
EAST TO LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST. 09Z/15Z SREF 2M TEMPS WITHIN               
A DEGREE OR TWO OF THIS AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST HAD THIS WELL                 
IN HAND SO VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.                                         
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD              
OF APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE WINDS SHIFT                 
TO THE SOUTHWEST ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST               
AND OUT OF THE AREA. PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING                   
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR MONDAY                      
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S. WILL NEED TO                  
WATCH FOR SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL               
FRONTOGENESIS WORKS WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES               
BEHIND THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW AM EXPECTING VIRGA GIVEN DRY LEVELS                 
BELOW 700MB. AGAIN...WILL BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POSSIBLE                  
NEED FOR POP INTRODUCTION. SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY                
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. PULLED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS                    
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA WITH MOISTURE COLUMN DRYING. MAY SEE              
SOMETHING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BUT RIGHT NOW NOT                      
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS GOING.                                            
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...DESPITE 850 TEMPERATURES FALLING SOME                   
5-10F 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW                
TO MID 40S. THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE REMNANTS OF                
MONDAYS FRONT OUT OF THE AREA AND AS A RESULT IT ACTUALLY FURTHER               
COOLS 850 TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM SO A                   
COMPROMISE WILL BE USED WITH MID 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.                  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND                     
MODIFYING 850 TEMPS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.                                       
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...                                              
WEDNESDAY...WARM BEFORE THE STORM (OR NEXT ARCTIC FRONT IN THIS                 
CASE) AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVING              
TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTIN WEST. MAY HAVE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH                      
CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD IMPACT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL              
CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE PER 850 TEMPS AND PREVIOUS 5 DAY BIAS                 
FROM THE GFS AND GO WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD                
SEE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES ON TOP OF THIS IF THE CLOUDS HOLD OFF AND               
MORE TYPICAL 850 BIAS DEVELOP. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIFFERENCES                  
SHOW UP IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS TROUGH. GFS HAS                
THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF                
HAS IT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. CANADIAN IN BETWEEN THE TWO. EITHER               
WAY LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF               
THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. USED THE 18Z HPC POP                 
GUIDANCE AS A START AS IT MATCHES PRETTY WELL TO THE QPF OUTPUT                 
FROM THE VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODELS.                                             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BIT             
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH               
THE PERIOD. GFS...CAN AND ECMWF ALL NOW APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR IN H5              
HEIGHT PATTERN BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE                
US-MEXICO BORDER. 00Z AND 06Z GFS...ALONG WITH AVAILABLE CANADIAN               
DATA ALL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...AND 00Z GFS ENS MEAN SFC FIELDS              
SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY IN PLACING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE               
AREA THUR AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL LARGE              
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR...THINK                     
TRENDING TEMPS TOWARD THE MUCH COLDER GFS ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD BE                
THE WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT. LOWERED TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES...AND              
IF OPERATIONAL GFS VERIFIES TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LOT                  
MORE. FOR WX...THINGS LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS               
NORTHERN PIECE OF THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA THUR-FRI...AND                
STRONGER CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO LIFT OUT AND IMPACT THE EXTREME                    
SOUTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY. ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR SNOW...BUT STILL              
TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN THINGS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF                 
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE KMCK TAF SITE                
EARLY THIS EVENING AND KGLD LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG                 
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT TO MVFR/IFR WITH AREAS OF                    
POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/JRM&DDT/BURTIS                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1040 AM MST SAT FEB 9 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS WARMING TREND WILL              
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S                  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PUSH            
THROUGH MCCOOK EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO BACK SOUTHWEST                
INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST IS ON                 
TRACK SO NO OTHER UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON              
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE KMCK                
TAF SITE EARLY THIS EVENING AND KGLD LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER              
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT TO MVFR/IFR WITH AREAS OF              
POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. -BURTIS                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM MST SAT FEB 9 2008/                          
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING NORTHWEST                 
MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
DIGS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS            
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE            
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WITH STRONG CAA EVIDENT BY SFC TEMPERATURES              
IN THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF                               
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN ADVECTING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND TODAY IN WESTERLY LOW LEVEL                
DOWNSLOPE AHEAD OF THE CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS...HOWEVER TRENDED             
COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT MIXING ONCE AGAIN                
TODAY.                                                                          
BOTH NAM/GFS APPEAR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ARCTIC COLD FRONT              
BACKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT RAISING CONCERNS FOR FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE         
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS. BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS              
SUGGEST A CONSIDERABLE DEPTH OF SATURATION GRADUALLY SUPPORTING SOME            
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER                
WILL APPROACH -10C ALLOWING THE INTRODUCTION OF ICE/FLURRIES TOWARD             
MORNING.                                                                        
RELUCTANT TO WARM TEMPERATURES MUCH ON SUNDAY WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS               
ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO            
THE 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHILE THE WESTERN ZONES MAY BEGIN              
TO MIX OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASING CHANCES FOR INSOLATION             
ACROSS THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A DECENT DIURNAL CLIMB WITH HIGHS                
REACHING THE UPPER 30S.                                                         
MONDAY...SOME WARMING WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A                 
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ADDS A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL                   
FLOW...HOWEVER ANY WARMING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT            
ARRIVES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TRENDED HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND                     
INCREASED POPS AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE                 
AREA. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES             
MONDAY EVENING AND EXPANDED AN AREA OF FLURRIES EAST INTO PORTIONS              
OF WESTERN KANSAS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION IS                  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03-05Z ON TUE WITH              
CIGS LOWERING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT               
BACKS INTO THE AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LEADING             
EDGE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS IN LOW CIGS/AREAS OF FZDZ AND BR/FG. MVFR                
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13-15Z ON TUE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
MCGUIRE                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
345 PM EST SAT FEB 9 2008                                                       
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER SNOWBELTS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS                
THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                               
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING TROF IN             
CNTRL NAMERICA WITH VIGOROUS ARCTIC BRANCH SHRTWV MOVING INTO NW MN             
DRAGGING VERY COLD AIR (12Z H85/5 TEMPS AS LO AS -32C/-43C AT YQD)              
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LEADING EDGE OF THIS BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS...              
WHICH FEATURES SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV -20F IN SRN                     
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS AFTN...IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MN               
AND PASSED DLH AT 1845Z. A BAND OF -SHSN IS AHEAD OF THIS BNDRY WITH            
SFC VSBY VARYING FM 1-3SM. SOME OF THIS -SN HAS MOVED INTO THE WRN              
ZNS EARLY THIS AFTN. OTRW...SHRTWV/SFC LO THAT DROPPED UP TO 4                  
INCHES OF SN OVER THE ERN ZNS IS NOW NEAR ANJ. ACCOMPANYING SN HAS              
PRETTY MUCH ENDED OVER THE ERN ZNS. JUST SOME SCT -SHSN ARE                     
OCCURRING IN THE AXIS BTWN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SN ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE ARCTIC FNT AND THE DEPARTING SFC LO.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                             
LATEST RUC13/NAM12 ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE                
ARCTIC FNT ACRS THE FA THIS EVNG AS INCOMING ARCTIC SHRTWV PHASES               
WITH SYS ASSOCIATED WITH LO NEAR ANJ. WL CARRY SCT-NMRS -SHSN WITH              
THIS BNDRY...LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCNTRL WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW.             
PCPN WL THEN TRANSITION TO PURE LES IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS AS WINDS            
INCRS QUICKLY TO THE WSW OF DEEPENING SFC LO OVER SE ONTARIO                    
FOLLOWING PHASING OF UPR FEATURES. STRONG WINDS THAT WL REACH STORM             
FORCE OVER LK SUP WL TEND TO BLOW THE SHSN WELL INLAND. BUT DRY                 
NATURE OF INCOMING AIRMASS AND FALLING H85 TEMPS TO -25C TO -35C                
OVER THE W BY 12Z SUN THAT WL LIMIT SN GROWTH WL TEND TO CUT LES                
AMTS...WL USE 1/2 THE LES CHART AMTS TO ESTIMATE LES ACCUMULATIONS              
(UP TO 3-4 INCHES/12 HRS).                                                      
AS FOR WINDS...LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOWN NO MORE THAN 40 TO 45 KT               
WINDS WITHIN MIXED LYR TNGT INTO SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECTED PHASING OF             
SHRTWVS AS DESCRIBED ABV AND MAGNITUDE OF INCOMING ARCTIC BLAST SUG             
GUIDANCE MAY BE ON THE LO END. GIVEN EVALUATION OF LOCAL HI WIND                
CHECKLIST...WHICH SHOWS LO END WRNG EVENT...AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS              
SHOWN BY RUC13...MAINTAINED GOING STORM WRNGS ON LK SUP WITH                    
IMPRESSIVE DESTABLIZATION/INCOMING COLD AIR AND RAPID DEEPENING OF              
LO PRES TO THE E. FINE NATURE OF SN FLAKES/STRONG WINDS WL RESULT IN            
EXTENSIVE BLSN...SO ISSUED SOME LES/BLSN ADVYS FOR AREAS OVER THE W             
WHERE STRONG NW WINDS WL BLOW THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND EVEN THOUGH SN            
AMTS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT.                                                      
SINCE NAM12/RUC13 SFC TEMPS ARE OFTEN QUITE RELIABLE IN OUTBREAKS OF            
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR PER 12Z BIS SDNG/OBSVD TEMPS UPSTREAM...TENDED TO            
FOLLOW THIS MODEL EXPLICIT GUIDANCE AND GO LOWER THAN MOS FOR LO                
TEMPS TNGT/HI TEMPS ON SUN. BASED ON THESE LOWER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS            
FCST...EXPANDED WIND CHILL WRNG TO INCLUDE SRN CMX/MNM COUNTIES AND             
INCLUDED SRN SCHOOLCRAFT IN WIND CHILL ADVY.                                    
COORDINATED WITH ENVIRONMENT CAN/GRB/APX/DLH/LOT.                               
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                              
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOW TO EXIT DUE TO PHASING MENTIONED ABOVE                 
LEADS TO CONTINUATION OF LK EFFECT SNOW AND BLSN/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS            
FOR NW FLOW AREAS MOST OF SUN NIGHT. BY LATE NIGHT...MORE                       
SIGNIFICANT BLSN SHOULD BE PINNED TOWARD MORE EXPOSED LK SUPERIOR               
SHORE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MUNISING. BY 12Z MON SHOULD BE WITHIN                
LESS SEVERE LK EFFECT SNOW REGIME. ONSHORE FLOW AND LONGEST OVER                
WATER FETCH JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF                      
MUNISING...BUT BY AFTN WITH APPROACH OF SFC RIDGE...WIND FIELDS                 
BECOME MORE NE/E WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE                   
NORTHEAST CWA BUT MAY ALLOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVR HIGHER            
TERRAIN OF NCNTRL UPR MI.                                                       
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINDER OF THE            
WEEK. MAIN ISSUE IS WHERE EXACT STORM TRACK WILL SET UP. ATTN LATE              
MON TURNS TO SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BTWN THE              
ENDING LK EFFECT AND THICKENING MID CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM TEMPS MAY            
FALL OFF QUICKLY MON EVENING. USED A NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TO SHOW             
TEMPS RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. SHORTWAVE EVENTUALLY PHASES              
WITH ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND FORMS SFC LOW OVER THE OHIO              
VALLEY. INVERTED TROF EXTENDS INTO UPR GREAT LAKES AND THIS COULD               
FOCUS SOME SNOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER               
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WAS PLANNING ON A BREAK FOR WED BUT               
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF ECMWF/GFS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH NORTHERN              
STREAM SHORWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. INCLUDED SOME POPS OVR LK                
SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN UPR MI. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...EXPECT                   
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO ROLL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNLIKE THE EARLY            
WEEK SYSTEM...THIS ONE HAS MORE COLD AIR POURING INTO THE BACK OF               
THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THERMAL GRADIENT/PCPN INTO THE              
GREAT LAKES. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AS UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF              
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP BUT IS FARTHER TO THE            
SOUTH WITH BETTER DYNAMICS. SO...AT THE LEAST...A MODERATE SNOW IS              
LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THU. SOME LK             
EFFECT FOR FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THEN WINDS BACK TO            
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE LIFTING                 
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CEILING HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY GO DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS SW WINDS               
PICK UP AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA.                 
PLENTY OF MVFR TYPE CIGS EXIST OVER NW WI AND EASTERN MN. THE                   
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTN SHOULD BRING A                
DRAMATIC FALL TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SN/BLSN. VLIFR CONDITIONS                  
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THRU SUN MORNING DUE TO STRONG WNW WINDS AND                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW/BLSN. TRENDED FCST TO HIGHER VSBY BY EARLY SUN                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
AT KSAW...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL CONTINUE              
INTERMITTENTLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A BRIEF              
PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER THAT LIES BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW OVER             
NORTHERN LOWER MI AND THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER MN. THE PASSAGE OF THE              
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL DROP VIS TO IFR             
IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN. SHIFTED THE ONSET OF THE FRONT BACK ONE               
HOUR. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SAT                
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...MOSTLY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTHERN              
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY                  
SUNDAY MORNING. CONTINUED MENTION OF NW STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE              
TERRAIN FAVORED E HALF LATE TNGT INTO SUN AFTN WITH STRONG NW CYC               
FLOW/ IMPRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE                  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN                      
DIMINISHING WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS WILL REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. A SECOND             
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND               
WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM NORTHERN                 
SASKATCHEWAN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS            
WILL PREVAIL MON THRU THU WITH NEXT SERIES OF LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK            
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001>003.                     
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR            
     MIZ006-007.                                                                
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ TO 11 AM EST                   
     /10 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ004-005-009>012-084.                             
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM             
     CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ004-                
     010-084.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST                
     MONDAY FOR MIZ085.                                                         
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST                  
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ009.                                                         
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ013-014.          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
     STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR                
     LSZ266-267.                                                                
     STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-265.                 
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ267.                
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266.                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ264-265.                         
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.                         
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO                    
     1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ267.                                                
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST            
     MONDAY FOR LSZ266.                                                         
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ264-             
     265.                                                                       
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR                     
     LSZ162-263.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ248-250.                                                                
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1                   
     PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...MRC                                                                  
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi