####018010306####
FXUS61 KBOX 112007
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE 
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS 
THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.  LARGE CANADIAN HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE BUT DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WLY BL FLOW BEHIND WFROPA MAY BECOME SE SEA BREEZES MIDDAY ALONG
THE E MASS COAST. OTRW PREVAILING ISOBARIC SW FLOW THIS AFTN...LIGHT
AND MILD. 

MWN WB IS 28...NORMALLY OFFERING 68F. CLOUDS INVADE LATE THIS AFTN.
SNOWCOVER AND LACK OF MIXING REDUCES 68F POTENTIAL...BUT POORLY MODELED
SFC TEMPS BY EVEN THE 12Z MODELS /SNOWPACK SKIN TEMP PBLM AND LACK OF MXG/ 
PLUS THE WARM 11AM REALITY REQUIRED A WARMING AN UPGRADE INTO THE LOW
AND MID 60S FOR PTNS OF INTERIOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

ALL PUBLIC KBOX PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED AGAIN AROUND 1135AM TO WARM
TEMPS AND ADJUST SKYCOVER.

CONTD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 2
IN NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH LATER THIS AFTN PER 1640Z RADAR AND
09Z SREF 3HRLY POP FOR .01 WHICH STILL OFFERS A 30 TO 45 PCT CHC OF
SHOWERS RTE 2 NORTHWARD IN THE 20Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT.
CORRESPONDINGLY... AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL WHIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. JUST AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A NARROW BAND OF TOTAL TOTALS INDICES NEAR
50...SHOWALTER INDICES FROM 0 TO -2... AND K INDICES FROM 30 TO 33
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO CATEGORICAL SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT TYPICAL TO FORECAST THUNDER IN MID FEBRUARY AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THIS IS A STRONG SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO
NEAR 50 KNOTS FROM 1-2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. WE MAY SEE WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TO 30 TO 40 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK...AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE... OR IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. 

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN THE MODELS...OFF THE NJ COAST...AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO STEAL OUR THUNDER...AS IT WERE. IT MAY FOCUS THE ENERGY THERE 
INSTEAD OF OVER US.

MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY WILL BE ANY LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
AND THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUES THO TRANSFER POTENTIAL HAS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HIGH WIND CRITERIA. BEST TRANSFER LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY END AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHERN
NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY...
DRIER AND CHILLY AIR WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEHIND 
THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE.  
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH 
MAKING IF FEEL COLDER.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AFTER THE 
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER OF TODAY AND THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE 
MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WILL 
MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY.  
HOWEVER...CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER OUR REGION WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE LOW 
TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEAKEN.  THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WE 
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.  HIGH 
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 
30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 
40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AT OR JUST BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 
THE FORECAST DRY OVER THIS TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  

WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.  BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLES DO NOT HAVE THE 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO BRING THE SYSTEM THIS 
FAR NORTH.  THIS WOULD MEAN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER FOR 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW WOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ALSO SLOWER.  THE ECMWF 
TAKES THE LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND HAS IT OVER NEW YORK CITY BY 
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THAT SAID THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY.  FOR NOW WILL 
INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WE ALL KNOW THAT 
TRACKS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CAN CHANGE 
DRASTICALLY IN THIS TIME RANGE.  THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW WHAT WILL 
HAPPEN THIS FAR OUT...SO WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS EVOLVE 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO GET A BETTER IDEA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF ALTOCU OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS...THIS IS MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA 19-1930Z. ALSO A PATCH OF 2500 CIGS IN WESTERN CT
MOVING NORTHEAST...THIS IS SHRINKING WITH TIME BUT MAY BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF CIGS TO BDL AND BAF BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE CONNECTICUT AREA
OF CLOUDS SEPARATES AIRMASSES...LIGHT WIND AND DEWPOINTS OF 33 TO 40
NORTH/EAST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS 45 TO 55 SOUTH/WEST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA...ROUGHLY 1930Z TO 2230Z.

THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER VIRGINIA...THIS REACHES US AFTER
00Z. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS AN AREA OF LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS. OBSERVED CIGS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE...WE BROUGHT THESE VALUES THROUGH STARTING 04Z-
07Z AND DEPARTING 09Z-13Z. NAM AND GFS STABILITY FORECASTS BRING
THROUGH TOTAL TOTALS OF 50-55...THIS AND UPSTREAM HISTORY SUGGESTS A
CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WHILE
THE STRONGEST VALUES REMAIN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH...950 MB WIND
SPEEDS OVER ACK-HYA-FMH AND POSSIBLY PVD CLIMB TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS. WE
WILL ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THESE TAFS.

CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD ANY CLEARING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
WE MAINTAINED BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVED VALUES. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING SUSTAINED WINDS...WE TARGETED 18-22 KNOTS BASED ON
LOW LEVEL WINDS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD IMPROVE MIXING OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...WE USED VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BASED
ON FORECAST WINDS AT 950 MB.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...VFR DESPITE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS DURING THE 
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TODAY. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE MASS WATERS.
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE THIS AFTN E MASS COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...STRONG SCA. POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALE GUSTS LATE. WINDS
SHIFTING FROM S TO WSW LATE. CHANCE OF TSTMS LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO
UP TO 10 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND 5 TO 10 FT OVER THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING SHOULD 
DIMINISH TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...25 TO 30 KNOT 
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE COLD AIR 
ADVECTION PATTERN.

SATURDAY...SCA WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE 
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS MAY REMAIN AT SCA 
THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LEFT OVER SWELL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS.  
WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION PROMOTING DECENT MIXING...WE MAY SEE SOME 
20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES.  HOWEVER...DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN 
THAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN 
JANUARY...ALLOWING THE FORMATION OF A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RIVER 
ICE IN FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHERN NEW 
HAMPSHIRE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. ICE 
COVERAGE IS SUFFICIENT IN THIS AREA WHERE A SIGNIFICANT THAW AND 
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT COULD BRING A RISK OF BREAKUP ICE JAMS. 

A BRIEF WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...WITH 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. SNOW PACK IS NOT YET RIPE IN THE
FAR INTERIOR...ALTHOUGH SOME MELT IS ANTICIPATED. WITH GENERALLY LOW
QPF /0.25 TO 0.5 INCH/ AND SHORT WARMUP...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR BREAK UP ICE JAMS AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BREAK UP ICE JAM OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY 
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY 
     NIGHT FOR MAZ008>013-015>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY 
     NIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-
     250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAF
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAF
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...GAF






####018010319####
FXUS61 KBOX 112007 RRA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE 
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS 
THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.  LARGE CANADIAN HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE BUT DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WLY BL FLOW BEHIND WFROPA MAY BECOME SE SEA BREEZES MIDDAY ALONG
THE E MASS COAST. OTRW PREVAILING ISOBARIC SW FLOW THIS AFTN...LIGHT
AND MILD. 

MWN WB IS 28...NORMALLY OFFERING 68F. CLOUDS INVADE LATE THIS AFTN.
SNOWCOVER AND LACK OF MIXING REDUCES 68F POTENTIAL...BUT POORLY MODELED
SFC TEMPS BY EVEN THE 12Z MODELS /SNOWPACK SKIN TEMP PBLM AND LACK OF MXG/ 
PLUS THE WARM 11AM REALITY REQUIRED A WARMING AN UPGRADE INTO THE LOW
AND MID 60S FOR PTNS OF INTERIOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

ALL PUBLIC KBOX PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED AGAIN AROUND 1135AM TO WARM
TEMPS AND ADJUST SKYCOVER.

CONTD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 2
IN NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH LATER THIS AFTN PER 1640Z RADAR AND
09Z SREF 3HRLY POP FOR .01 WHICH STILL OFFERS A 30 TO 45 PCT CHC OF
SHOWERS RTE 2 NORTHWARD IN THE 20Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT.
CORRESPONDINGLY... AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL WHIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. JUST AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A NARROW BAND OF TOTAL TOTALS INDICES NEAR
50...SHOWALTER INDICES FROM 0 TO -2... AND K INDICES FROM 30 TO 33
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO CATEGORICAL SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT TYPICAL TO FORECAST THUNDER IN MID FEBRUARY AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THIS IS A STRONG SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO
NEAR 50 KNOTS FROM 1-2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. WE MAY SEE WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TO 30 TO 40 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK...AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE... OR IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. 

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN THE MODELS...OFF THE NJ COAST...AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO STEAL OUR THUNDER...AS IT WERE. IT MAY FOCUS THE ENERGY THERE 
INSTEAD OF OVER US.

MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY WILL BE ANY LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
AND THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUES THO TRANSFER POTENTIAL HAS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HIGH WIND CRITERIA. BEST TRANSFER LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY END AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHERN
NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY...
DRIER AND CHILLY AIR WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEHIND 
THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE.  
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH 
MAKING IF FEEL COLDER.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AFTER THE 
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER OF TODAY AND THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE 
MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WILL 
MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY.  
HOWEVER...CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER OUR REGION WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE LOW 
TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEAKEN.  THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WE 
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.  HIGH 
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 
30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 
40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AT OR JUST BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 
THE FORECAST DRY OVER THIS TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  

WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.  BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLES DO NOT HAVE THE 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO BRING THE SYSTEM THIS 
FAR NORTH.  THIS WOULD MEAN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER FOR 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW WOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ALSO SLOWER.  THE ECMWF 
TAKES THE LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND HAS IT OVER NEW YORK CITY BY 
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THAT SAID THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY.  FOR NOW WILL 
INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WE ALL KNOW THAT 
TRACKS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CAN CHANGE 
DRASTICALLY IN THIS TIME RANGE.  THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW WHAT WILL 
HAPPEN THIS FAR OUT...SO WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS EVOLVE 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO GET A BETTER IDEA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF ALTOCU OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS...THIS IS MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA 19-1930Z. ALSO A PATCH OF 2500 CIGS IN WESTERN CT
MOVING NORTHEAST...THIS IS SHRINKING WITH TIME BUT MAY BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF CIGS TO BDL AND BAF BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE CONNECTICUT AREA
OF CLOUDS SEPARATES AIRMASSES...LIGHT WIND AND DEWPOINTS OF 33 TO 40
NORTH/EAST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS 45 TO 55 SOUTH/WEST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA...ROUGHLY 1930Z TO 2230Z.

THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER VIRGINIA...THIS REACHES US AFTER
00Z. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS AN AREA OF LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS. OBSERVED CIGS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE...WE BROUGHT THESE VALUES THROUGH STARTING 04Z-
07Z AND DEPARTING 09Z-13Z. NAM AND GFS STABILITY FORECASTS BRING
THROUGH TOTAL TOTALS OF 50-55...THIS AND UPSTREAM HISTORY SUGGESTS A
CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WHILE
THE STRONGEST VALUES REMAIN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH...950 MB WIND
SPEEDS OVER ACK-HYA-FMH AND POSSIBLY PVD CLIMB TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS. WE
WILL ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THESE TAFS.

CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD ANY CLEARING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
WE MAINTAINED BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVED VALUES. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING SUSTAINED WINDS...WE TARGETED 18-22 KNOTS BASED ON
LOW LEVEL WINDS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD IMPROVE MIXING OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...WE USED VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BASED
ON FORECAST WINDS AT 950 MB.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...VFR DESPITE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS DURING THE 
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TODAY. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE MASS WATERS.
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE THIS AFTN E MASS COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...STRONG SCA. POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALE GUSTS LATE. WINDS
SHIFTING FROM S TO WSW LATE. CHANCE OF TSTMS LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO
UP TO 10 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND 5 TO 10 FT OVER THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING SHOULD 
DIMINISH TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...25 TO 30 KNOT 
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE COLD AIR 
ADVECTION PATTERN.

SATURDAY...SCA WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE 
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS MAY REMAIN AT SCA 
THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LEFT OVER SWELL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS.  
WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION PROMOTING DECENT MIXING...WE MAY SEE SOME 
20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES.  HOWEVER...DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN 
THAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN 
JANUARY...ALLOWING THE FORMATION OF A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RIVER 
ICE IN FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHERN NEW 
HAMPSHIRE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. ICE 
COVERAGE IS SUFFICIENT IN THIS AREA WHERE A SIGNIFICANT THAW AND 
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT COULD BRING A RISK OF BREAKUP ICE JAMS. 

A BRIEF WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...WITH 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. SNOW PACK IS NOT YET RIPE IN THE
FAR INTERIOR...ALTHOUGH SOME MELT IS ANTICIPATED. WITH GENERALLY LOW
QPF /0.25 TO 0.5 INCH/ AND SHORT WARMUP...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR BREAK UP ICE JAMS AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BREAK UP ICE JAM OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY 
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY 
     NIGHT FOR MAZ008>013-015>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY 
     NIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-
     250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAF
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAF
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...NMB