FXUS04 KWBC 040650
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
249 AM EDT TUE MAY 04 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 05/1200 UTC THRU MAY 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

UNSEASONABLY DRY PATRN WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE U.S. AFTER UPR
TROF EXITS THE NE U.S..WITH NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN
EXPECTED MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY. 

CNTL U.S...GT LAKES......
A COUPLE AREAS OF GENLY LIGHT PCPN ARE EXPECT HERE OVER THE
NEXT 36 HRS.   SCTD SHWRS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF WEAK S/WV THAT
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE ERN LAKES TUES NIGHT WITH THE
ETA HAVING TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED GFS. 
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE S/WV AND ASSOCD
SFC FRONT..BUT WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MSTR...AT MOST EXPECT SOME
.25 INCH AMOUNTS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO LATE IN
THE PD.   SCTD SHWRS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM MAY DVLP IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACRS THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  PWS INCREASE TO AROUND AN
INCH IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONT..BUT OVERALL DRYNESS AND
FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS GENLY LESS THAN .25 INCH.   ACRS THE NRN
DAKOTAS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCD WARM ADV PATRN
AHEAD OF WEAK PAC FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE NRN HI PLAINS COULD
TRIGGER A ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS TUES NIGHT OVER ERN ND INTO NE
SD AND WRN MN.  ETA AXIS OF HIER K VALUES ACRS THIS AREA SEEMED
TO SUPPORT THE SLIGHTLY HIER GFS AMOUNTS OF .25 INCH OR SO.  

PAC NW...
MODEL MASS FIELDS AND QPFS ARE REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE.  WEAK S/WV ENERGY EJECTING INLAND AHEAD OF OFFSHORE
CLOSED LOW WILL HELP TRIGGER MAINLY LIGHT SHRS ACRS THE
PREFERRED HIER ELEVS. 

MAINE...
PCPN ASSOCD WITH UPR TROF PUSHING EWD FROM THE GT LAKES
REGION SHOULD END EARLY IN THE PD.   MODEL QPFS GENLY SIMILAR
WITH .25 INCH ACRS NRN MAINE..AND THIS WAS GENLY ACCEPTED. 

DAY 2...

...NEW ENG/MID ATLC/APLCHNS...

MDLS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A CLUSTER OF MID
LVL ENERGY ACROSS NEW ENG DURING THE PERIOD.  TROF EXTENDING
SWD SHOULD PROGRESS FROM THE APLCHNS INTO THE MID ATLC.  BEST
ORGANIZED AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ASSOC WITH THE NEW
ENG ENERGY DURING THE DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING HRS... WITH SOME .25-
.50 INCH AREAL AVG TOTALS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.  FARTHER S...
MID LVL TROF SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER AND MORE SCT RNFL FROM THE
APLCHNS EWD.

...UPR MS VLY/GRTLKS...

STG JET FLOWING FROM THE PAC NW EWD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL SUPPORT SFC LOW PRES THAT TRACKS FROM JUST N OF ND
TOWARD JAMES BAY... AND TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE
UPR GRTLKS TO N-CNTRL PLAINS BY THE END OF WED NIGHT.  WHILE AMTS
ARE LGT... MDLS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH HOW MUCH SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE STG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM.  RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z UKMET BOTH SHOW .25
INCH OR GREATER MAX AMTS IN CONTRAST TO THE CANADIAN WHICH
KEEPS RNFL ALONG/N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THE ETA HAS
BROADENED ITS AREA OF LGT ACTIVITY COMPARED TO YDAY BUT IS STILL
LIGHTER THAN THE GFS/UKMET.  MSTR IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH PW
VALUES AROUND OR BELOW AN INCH... BUT STG LOW LVL JET SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST AS MUCH DEVELOPMENT AS AN ETA/GFS BLEND WITH
.10-.25 INCH MAX AMTS OVER MUCH OF MN INTO NRN WI.  LIGHTER AMTS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO SRN WI/NRN MI.

...PAC NW...

OVER THE LAST 24 HRS THE ETA HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM OFF THE PAC NW COAST
AND FLOW OVER WRN CANADA... BRINGING ETA/GFS QPF INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE.  VERY MODEST MAGNITUDE OF ONSHORE FLOW
AND DEEP MSTR WILL KEEP RNFL AMTS LGT AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO
THE WA CASCADES AND WA/NRN OR COAST... WITH MAX AMTS OF LESS
THAN .25 INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS.    

SULLIVAN/RAUSCH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510658 506646 501637 491628 488625 485623 480622 475620 
      468620 457621 445624 439625 433629 428632 425639 423647 
      423653 426663 432669 442678 445684 444692 440707 439712 
      440718 442720 454724 459724 466723 478718 486715 492710 
      496707 502699 505693 508683 510669 510658 
 0.01 524257 522249 524238 531218 535205 539188 541177 541171 
      541166 538150 535142 532133 528116 527109 526098 533081 
      534063 538048 540031 540022 537013 534007 532004 534000 
      541990 545986 549980 558966 560963 560958 558952 553946 
      543938 531936 519935 510937 506940 506945 506951 506972 
      505986 504996 504007 502015 502023 501032 500045 500054 
      498059 497071 497081 497102 500123 504135 506141 506147 
      504148 500146 497142 489131 485130 482132 476134 472137 
      470132 467127 464121 461121 457119 458114 462116 468116 
      472114 475110 482099 483096 483090 479084 468087 464098 
      458098 454095 450097 450103 449111 450115 454119 455124 
      454132 451148 452157 452165 450172 452178 455182 462182 
      463177 461171 463165 465163 470159 474157 478160 480166 
      482172 485177 489183 494187 497190 499193 502197 505204 
      504207 502206 498202 491199 489197 485199 479202 473205 
      464207 456212 445216 440218 438220 437222 439224 445226 
      452229 456231 452234 448235 447238 449241 449246 447250 
      442256 438264 435268 435272 436275 456270 461270 468272 
      484278 492281 495283 498287 503293 510297 
 0.01 514830 512819 509814 507810 505805 500797 489776 482765 
      472751 465741 461738 457736 450737 446739 438742 431746 
      420753 412761 405772 398783 392795 387803 372824 368833 
      365843 364849 364854 364863 367873 371885 373894 375907 
      378913 382918 388927 389932 392938 395945 397949 401964 
      409992 411000 414006 416008 421009 425009 428006 430999 
      430986 431982 435984 439987 448998 450003 454007 457013 
      458018 460027 462033 464042 465052 469065 472066 474065 
      477060 481044 482034 483030 481024 480019 479008 479989 
      481983 482980 483979 491974 495969 496962 494959 483955 
      473952 467949 458951 446955 441958 436961 432965 430967 
      428972 425972 424968 421962 412938 400909 399892 402881 
      404876 403867 402860 404853 409848 413851 416867 460860 
      469867 478876 484883 492892 495896 500898 506897 511893 
      514886 517877 518870 517862 513852 511845 510842 512836 
      514830 
 0.01 437242 436239 434237 431237 428238 427239 427242 428243 
      430244 431244 433244 436244 437242 
 0.01 268785 265780 257781 253782 250787 245792 242797 239802 
      235808 232819 229832 232835 235834 239833 242831 255825 
      261821 263816 267810 270804 269798 268788 268785 
 0.25 477672 475664 471657 468655 464654 462655 465660 468665 
      471673 471677 471683 472692 475694 478691 479686 478677 
      477672 
 0.25 532200 532193 530190 530184 529169 527164 524159 520155 
      518155 516157 517172 513171 510168 505165 502164 499166 
      497172 498177 506187 511196 516205 523216 527213 532200 
 0.25 514262 515252 515246 514239 513235 509231 504225 502219 
      497213 491211 482211 476213 474216 476219 478219 486222 
      489224 492228 498244 499249 497252 492248 485246 488252 
      490258 492262 498268 506269 511265 514262 
 0.25 520025 521015 519010 516016 513021 512026 511031 510035 
      511040 511049 512054 511058 510063 511067 514059 515054 
      516044 517039 519030 520025 
 0.25 440765 438762 437761 431763 426769 424771 421776 419781 
      417786 416791 415796 417800 419797 423792 426787 428784 
      432778 435776 438770 440765 
 0.25 472990 472986 472982 471978 469974 469973 468970 466967 
      465966 462963 462962 459961 456963 456964 457967 457968 
      458972 459976 460980 461983 462984 464988 465989 466991 
      468994 471994 472990 
 0.50 510255 509250 508242 505238 502233 499228 496222 495222 
      495226 497232 500237 502243 504248 506254 508257 510255 
 0.50 518191 517189 517186 515181 515180 513177 511175 510174 
      507174 506179 508184 509185 511188 514190 517192 518191  
 
24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 526257 526249 527240 526228 527219 530216 536211 538197 
      540183 540167 535156 533141 531125 529109 529099 529088 
      530068 532053 533038 535024 536009 538995 543973 545961 
      547949 548935 549919 550903 550892 549882 547872 546862 
      546852 544834 540814 538806 536800 531789 525781 519773 
      515769 506765 500764 492763 485764 480766 477763 477756 
      478749 479744 481737 480728 478721 477715 478710 479698 
      479686 481674 482668 481663 481652 481647 478641 476639 
      472635 466637 451649 440656 434661 414677 405686 404689 
      399695 394704 391707 387713 385715 383720 376725 371732 
      369737 368741 366750 368760 367763 363767 362771 362774 
      365776 369776 375772 388766 391765 394766 394773 393783 
      391787 388791 376797 373801 371806 370817 371822 373824 
      378824 383822 394809 400802 405798 409796 417793 427788 
      432785 438779 444779 448780 452783 454786 461796 463802 
      464810 463813 460815 457813 454810 449808 446810 442814 
      440823 440834 440843 441858 442868 442871 440873 436874 
      429874 426877 426883 426889 428896 433907 439931 441947 
      444957 451964 457968 463975 465987 470995 473999 476002 
      483006 489013 493020 494033 495074 496091 497105 498119 
      498127 497135 495137 493135 489132 478133 479138 483140 
      486144 488151 490153 494157 494159 491162 488163 486162 
      482155 474153 467148 466150 467154 470158 478164 480163 
      482163 483167 483174 487179 493186 500192 503197 505201 
      507206 507212 505216 495204 492203 490198 483204 474207 
      468209 462213 458216 457220 458226 462229 454231 450234 
      447237 448242 454246 458249 462249 473251 479254 483259 
      488269 492277 498287 504290 509289 514286 517282 
 0.01 491234 489229 486226 483226 480225 478225 480227 482231 
      482233 485234 488234 491234 491234 
 0.01 474229 474228 472223 471223 470227 471229 474229 474229 
 0.01 473046 474038 473029 472025 469020 465017 461017 459022 
      459030 460039 462044 465050 468053 472051 473046 
 0.01 457085 458080 458076 458072 458068 457064 456063 453061 
      451064 451068 451072 451076 451080 451084 452089 453089 
      455089 456088 457085 
 0.01 370851 367845 365838 362834 358830 356827 354824 350820 
      347820 344822 343828 343832 345835 348841 350844 354850 
      356853 360855 365856 368855 370851 
 0.01 261817 259812 256808 257806 257802 255800 249799 245805 
      244808 240815 240822 244827 249823 253820 258819 261817 
 0.25 534834 534827 533820 531814 529810 522809 517809 513811 
      507814 503817 498825 495835 493844 491852 489860 489866 
      490874 490895 491902 493909 494916 494923 495936 497941 
      499946 505948 509951 509953 505954 503954 501957 498965 
      499974 501977 505979 518962 521971 523977 531960 536942 
      538930 538918 538905 536891 533878 530867 530850 532840 
      534834 
 0.25 531175 531169 530160 527147 521134 516125 513123 510125 
      507139 504145 503150 504155 505159 504163 501168 499172 
      500176 502182 508192 514199 518203 523202 525198 525194 
      525183 528179 531175 
 0.25 518263 517258 515252 513246 510236 508234 503232 500229 
      498225 496222 495222 494227 495231 500237 502247 505258 
      510264 515267 518263 
 0.25 518058 518054 518049 518044 517040 515044 514047 514049 
      513054 512058 512063 513068 514069 515068 517063 517061 
      518058 
 0.25 454715 453711 451709 450709 448709 444709 443709 441710 
      439711 438713 438717 437718 438718 440720 442721 445721 
      446722 449721 452720 454717 454715 
 0.25 446744 445740 442737 438735 434735 429738 425737 422735 
      419735 416737 413743 413746 415750 419755 422756 427756 
      431755 437753 442749 446744 
 0.50 515888 514878 513874 512870 509867 506867 503871 501877 
      500884 500889 500898 501907 502916 505922 508919 510913 
      512908 514901 516892 515888 
 0.50 524168 524164 523159 523157 522154 520150 519148 518146 
      515145 512146 511147 510151 509156 511161 513165 514166 
      516169 519171 522171 524168 
 0.50 518191 518186 515181 515180 513177 510175 510174 509175 
      508179 509184 512186 514187 517191 518191  
 
$$