AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
238 PM MST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                                           
...WELL ADVERTISED WEATHER SYSTEM TO BLAST THROUGH CO TNGT...                   
CURRENTLY...AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME             
PICKING UP CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA. WIND FLOW THIS MORNING AND                
EARLY AFTN WAS WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE             
LIKELY BEING TRAPPED GIVEN THE ROLL/ROTOR CLOUDS ALONG OUR ERN CO               
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...BY MID AFTN THE EXIT REGION OF THE 120-150KT ULJ           
WAS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE CNTRL ROCKIES PER RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES             
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. REALLY HAVE NOT DEVELOPED A MOD-STRONG                 
STABLE LAYER AT MOUNTAIN TOP AND THE BRUTE FORCE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM              
HAS NOT MATERIALIZED...YET.  WE HAVE RECEIVED SPOTTER REPORTS OF                
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH IN THE UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND 70 MPH              
ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. CERTAINLY             
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD...YET. ONLY GETTING GUSTS OF 20-40 MPH IN THE               
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS PER RAWS AND AWOS SENSORS. REGIONAL RADAR            
ANIMATION SHOWING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALREADY STARTING TO                  
DEVELOP ACROSS SERN WY...NRN CO...AND WRN NE. THE "SNOW MACHINE" HAS            
CONTINUED FOR THE N CNTRL/CNTRL MOUNTAINS GIVE THE RATHER VIGOROUS              
AND MOIST NWLY FLOW.                                                            
TNGT...IT WILL BE A REAL CHALLENGE WITH THE HIGH WIND FORECAST AND              
WHAT TO DO. CURRENTLY...BARELY OR NOT EVEN REACHING THE HIGH WIND               
CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAIN WAVE/MIXING EVENT THIS AFTN AND EVE...                
HOWEVER...IT IS SPOTTY IN SOME LOCATIONS. HATE DROPPING WARNINGS                
WHEN SPOTTY LOCATIONS ARE REACHING CRITERIA. IT APPEARS ANY                     
POTENTIAL STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL NEED TO COME WITH THE SIGNIFICANT              
COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVE...BUT THAT MAY NOT EVEN LAST THAT LONG.               
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO 50KTS WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE               
FROPA. THE POTENTIAL HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NOT BE CONTINUOUS ACROSS SERN CO OR OUR ERN               
MOUNTAINS. PRETTY GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL H8-H7 H7-H6 IMPLIED UPWARD               
FORCING...POSITIVE VALUES...WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SERN CO.               
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE MOISTURE...UP TO H5...            
AND THIS COMBINED WITH VERTICAL INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO SOME                
HEALTHY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CORES. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING              
THAT GREAT OF CSI POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT...AS WE ARE NOW PROGGED              
TO BE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE ULJ AND MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL             
BE VERTICAL. POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE-STRONG SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALONG            
THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-40 MPH AND GUSTS TO                
AROUND 60 MPH COULD CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN THE INTENSE              
PRECIPITATION CORES BETWEEN 7PM AND 12AM TONIGHT...IF EVERYTHING                
COMES TOGETHER. I HAVE PAINTED 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE PALMER              
DIVIDE FOR TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SERN CO             
SHOULD SHIFT FROM N TO S TNGT...SNOW AMOUNTS AND CONDITIONS DO NOT              
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW             
ADVISORY...BUT FOR A BRIEF TIME IT COULD LOOK PRETTY NASTY GIVEN THE            
INSTABILITY AND WIND. PLAN TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR           
THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS WITH ANOTHER 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW...BLOWING                  
SNOW...AND LOW VISIBILITIES TNGT.                                               
TUE...WELL ADVERTISED MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH              
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S/40S ACROSS SERN CO AND 20S/30S OVER THE                   
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. KEPT A LOW POP/WX POTENTIAL ACROSS THE              
SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUTAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS.  ALSO...KEPT              
A LOW POP/WX POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE SW AND            
CNTRL MOUNTAINS BASED ON GJT'S FORECAST. THE H5-H3 LAYER HUMIDITY               
LEVELS BECOME <20%...SO TOUGH TO GET INSTABILITY CLOUDS GOING. NEXT             
ROUND FOR MARGINAL HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SERN CO PLAINS             
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 50KT GUSTS STILL DOABLE...WHICH WILL BE MORE              
OR LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT/MIXING WINDS.  METZE                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)                                             
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM APPEAR TO BE ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY     
SURGES PUSHING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY ALONG             
WITH ASSOCIATED POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH EACH SURGE.                   
MOST RECENT EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THAT CWFA SHOULD BE UNDER A NORTHWEST       
TO NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM WITH NEXT IN A             
SERIES OF SURFACE NORTHERLY SURGES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY             
A MORE POTENT SURGE SATURDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED INHERITED DRY FORECAST TO           
INCLUDE SOME LOW GRADE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM THURSDAY             
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON            
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                         
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES DURING         
THE LONG TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEXT MONDAY WHERE THE POSSIBILITY           
EXISTS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL             
AVERAGES. I ALSO EXPECT A VERY CHILLY START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY             
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE       
POSITIVE DIGITS OVER PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. COOLEST MAXIMUM             
TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE PROJECTED TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY. FINALLY...IT  
MAY GET A BIT WINDY AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN             
PLAINS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES         
FOR COORDINATION AND COLLABORATION.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR COZ058>061-063.                     
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR COZ062-072>088.                        
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM TUESDAY FOR COZ089-                  
093>099.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECASTS ON TRACK. MORNING FOG GRADUALLY                 
DISSIPATING & HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING. UPPED POP FOR KPFN                
ZONE TO 20% PER FORECAST ANALYSIS & EXPECTING SIMILAR TREND AS                  
YESTERDAY WITH MOISTURE INFLUX & WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING               
ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLING OVER NORTHERN MS...NW             
AL TO EASTERN TN. SHORT-RANGE MODELS STILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL               
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT MAINLY SE AL & EASTERN FL PANHANDLE SHOULD               
SEE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EXPECTED DAY-TIME HEATING...                   
MOISTURE INFLUX (TAE SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.15 INCHES &               
MAINLY IN SURFACE TO 10K FT LEVEL)...& WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT. CAN'T             
RULE OUT LATER UPDATE FOR SMALL CHANCE OVER ENTIRE CWA.  OTHERWISE              
TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORDS.               
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN 5-10 KTS WITH 2 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE...WHILE             
JUST A BIT HIGHER OFFSHORE. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                           
.AVIATION...VFR TODAY WITH ONLY A VCSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT              
KDHN & KPFN. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT ALL TAFS TODAY BUT AT THIS TIME             
WILL NOT MENTION. SE-E WIND FLOW MAINLY 5-10 MPH. EXPECTING SOME                
DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT ALL TAF SITES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MCT                                          
LONG TERM/MARINE...FOURNIER                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
138 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE 04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED NORTHEAST               
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND              
EAST TEXAS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG                 
THE GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER                
AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A               
POTENT SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE                    
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED                 
COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE 00 UTC GFS...NAM...AND UKMET REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE                
SYNOPTIC SCALE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT (CURRENTLY OVER THE             
SOUTHEAST U.S.) WILL SOON STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. AS WAS                
THE CASE ON SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN-               
MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE ARE SUFFICIENT                            
THERMODYNAMICS AND WEAK LIFT. THIS SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL                   
COVER A LARGER PORTION OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY                
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AS A               
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH OF THE                   
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND THAT HAS                       
CERTAINLY BEEN THE CASE FOR ALL OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES SO FAR THIS             
SEASON. THE HIGHEST POP WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ZONES                  
(40 PERCENT) TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE 20-30                
PERCENT POP. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW                  
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH                          
WEDNESDAY...THEN FALL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AFTER THE FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WE EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS            
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LONG-                   
LASTING DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE POSITION OF                
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THUS THE FOG WILL TEND TO BE RADIATION FOG              
AND PROBABLY NOT ADVECTION FOG.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL                        
WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD                   
FRONT WILL CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH WINDS LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS                   
REST OF OVERNIGHT...ALREADY AOB 5SM NRN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH                   
OZARK DOWN TO 1/4SM IN SLY FLOW. RUC80 SFC COND PRES DEF IMPLIES                
THAT LOW VSBYS TO ALSO SPREAD W OF ATLC COAST TO IMPACT MNLY ERN                
MOST GA/SE BIG BEND. THUS FORECAST WILL SHOW BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR                
VSBY AT ALL BUT PFN. AFTER 8-9 AM...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CU FIELD              
DEVELOP WITH VFR CEILINGS AT AROUND 5 KFT DEVELOPING DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP ONCE                  
AGAIN ACROSS NWRN AREAS INCLUDING DHN AND PFN. HOWEVER, COVERAGE                
WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MUCH               
DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS ON               
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE 82 59 80 61 / 05 10 10 20                                           
PANAMA CITY 81 64 80 64 / 10 10 20 30                                           
DOTHAN      82 62 80 61 / 20 10 20 40                                           
ALBANY      82 59 81 61 / 10 10 20 30                                           
VALDOSTA    82 59 82 59 / 05 10 20 20                                           
CROSS CITY  83 59 83 62 / 10 10 10 10                                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK                                                   
REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
935 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...WILL NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST FOR                
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING AND CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON. FROM                  
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE 12Z RUC...APPEARS THE SHOWERS AND                   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO NORTH                      
GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER. FURTHER SOUTH POPS            
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED                    
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY TO THE MORE STEADY SHOWERS WHICH WILL NOT REACH               
MUCH FUTHER SOUTH THAN ABOUT ROME.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                         
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY PROGGED TO                 
STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF GEORGIA THIS MORNING...THEN DRIFT BACK                  
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SIMILAR WITH BEST MOISTURE AND                 
UPPER DYNAMICS STAYING NORTH OF GEORGIA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT                
STILL LOOK FOR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE EXTREME                        
NORTH...CLOSEST TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW             
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LATEST             
RUN OF MODELS STILL SLOWING SECOND STRONGER FRONT APPROACHING AND               
THEN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS BRING FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE             
VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN INTO NORTHWEST               
GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOUNDARY NEAR AN                
ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE                 
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. NONETHELESS WILL FOLLOW              
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND WITH BEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY                 
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES FOR THUNDER PRETTY                
WEAK DURING THE PERIOD. BEST INSTABILITY INDICATED NORTH AND WEST OF            
OUR AREA. MODELS DO INDICATED LIFTED INDICES AROUND A MINUS ONE OVER            
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF               
THUNDER THERE. AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSTABLE TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SO SLIGHTLY BETTER              
CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN.                                                        
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                   
FRONT PUSHING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.            
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES              
BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA              
TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF               
WEEK. EXTENDED PROGS SHOW THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC              
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY                 
REGION. LATEST GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND                
WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS (MAINLY ACROSS NORTH SECTIONS) FOR NOW.                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA         73  58  72  52 /  30  20  30  60                                
ATHENS          75  56  70  58 /  20  20  20  60                                
GAINESVILLE     70  56  68  53 /  30  20  30  70                                
ROME            73  58  72  53 /  50  40  40  80                                
COLUMBUS        78  59  78  58 /  20  10  20  60                                
MACON           79  58  78  59 /  20  10  20  40                                
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW               
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY 3000 TO 6000 FT               
CEILINGS WITH SHRA MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.              
WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA AROUND NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS             
MORNING BUT MORE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS STAY NORTH OF THE ATL AREA             
TODAY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TSRA OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOTHING               
MAJOR. VSBYS WILL BE UP AND DOWN THIS MORNING WITH HZ AND BR MOVING             
IN AND OUT. WILL SEE MAINLY 4 TO 6SM WITH A SOME ISOLATED LOWER                 
SPOTS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 14Z-16Z SE WINDS               
BEGIN TO INCREASE. WINDS SHOULD BE SE ALL DAY 5 TO 10KT.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1020 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE ZONES AROUND 1045 PM EST OR SO AS RAIN IS QUICKLY                   
EXITING NORTHEAST...AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AFTER MIDNIGHT                
WILL BE SMALL.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A                 
WARM FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD             
OUR REGION TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE SRN CWFA DURING THE               
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FCST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE REVOLVES AROUND IFR CEILINGS AND              
VSBYS DUE TO RAIN/SHOWERS.                                                      
AT 22Z..SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WARM FRONT FROM NRN ARKANSAS                    
..EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL LIFT               
NORTH INTO SRN IL...CNTRL INDIANA AND SRN OHIO BY 12Z TUESDAY.                  
WARM...MOIST ASCENT WAS OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS             
EVENING.  THIS COMPONENT...COMBINED WITH AN UPR LVL S/WV PASSING                
ACRS NRN IL...NRN IN...AND SRN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WILL              
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING.  RUC40 MODEL INDICATED SOME             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACRS SRN IL/SRN IN ATTM...AND THERE WERE SOME              
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THERE.  THIS INSTABILITY IS FCST TO            
MOVE ACRS THE SRN/SERN CWFA THIS EVENING.  WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE            
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH               
RAIN.                                                                           
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE...RESULTING             
IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS.  THERE ALSO COULD BE A PERIOD OF                
DRIZZLE.  LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF               
TUESDAY.  THEN...A STRONG UPR LVL H5 LOW WILL PIVOT EASTWARD INTO               
THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE FCST             
AREA DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...ANOTHER SURGE OF                        
WARM...MOIST AIR AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN PCPN.  THIS             
SHOULD BE MORE OF A SHOWERY PCPN...AND GIVEN PRECIPITABLE                       
WATER VALUES APCHING 1.4 INCHES...SOME LOWER VSBYS IN SHOWERS CAN BE            
EXPECTED.  ALSO...THERE WILL BE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO SOME                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  WILL ONLY INCLUDE CB CLOUD                
WORDING ATTM FOR THE TAF SITES...BUT LATER SHIFTS/TAF ISSUANCES WILL            
NEED TO PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.                                        
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE H5 UPR              
LVL LOW WILL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING.  SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL              
FUNNEL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND SOME RAIN AND/OR             
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WRAP AROUND MSTR AND LAKE                  
EFFECT INFLUENCES.                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NAM QUICKLY CATCHES ONTO INTENSIFICATION OF                
UPSTREAM SYSTEM AND WILL FOLLOW WITH SIMILAR GFS ADDING TO TIMING               
CONFIDENCE AS WELL.AREA OF RAIN QUICKLY EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL                
ILLINOIS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST. RAFL ASSOCIATED WITH MO SHORT WAVE              
ENERGY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND STRONG ISENT 300K LIFT/SATURATION              
TAPPING OVER 8J/KG AIRMASS OVER MID MS VLY. CPDS QUICKLY FALL FROM              
OVER 100 MB TO LT 30 MB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. WILL NOT OFFER TOO MUCH            
TIMING DETAIL THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO                 
RAPIDLY ADVANCE/DEVELOP NORTHEAST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE              
POTENTIAL MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. 180KT UL JET DIGGING             
INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES TO FUEL STRONG LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS. DEEPENING            
LOW TO TRACK FROM NORTHWEST OK AT 12Z TUE TO NEAR ORD 00Z WED.                  
EXTREME 0-1KM HELICITIES ON ORDER OF 400-500 M2/S2 IMMEDIATELY                  
ALONG/AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LONG/CURVED HODO IN 60-80KT OF 0-6KM             
BULK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...LENDS TOWARD ENHANCED TORNADO RISK                     
ESPECIALLY 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME. LACK OF CAPE WITH MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG            
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE DPS INTO MID 60S ACROSS             
OHIO VALLEY WITH NEAR 60 INTO SOUTHERN CWA ALONG WITH STRONG                    
DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP OVERCOME. 65 TO 70 KT 8H JET WITH COLD FRONT               
POINTS TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF COLD                
FRONT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE...MORE FALL/WINTER LIKE PATTERN            
CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.             
AS DISCUSSED IN SHORT TERM...DEFINITE SVR THREAT WILL                           
EXIST...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS MAINLY EAST. NAM            
IS MUCH FASTER PUSHING SQUALL LINE THROUGH WITH GFS SOMEWHAT SLOWER.            
REGARDLESS...PRECIP LOOKS TO WIND DOWN BY 5Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW DRY              
SLOT WORKING IN BEHIND THE LINE THAT COULD VERY WELL BRING ANY                  
PRECIP TO AN END THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP                 
WOULD BE WITH WRAP AROUND MSTR AND LAKE EFFECT AS COLD AIR FILTERS              
IN. 850 MB FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY SW THROUGH 00Z THURS...SO MAIN                
LAKE EFFECT CONCERN WOULD BE PARTS OF BERRIEN COUNTY AND FURTHER                
NORTH. WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT LAYOUT OF POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.               
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS COLDER AIR...MODELS ALSO SLOWER ON ITS             
ARRIVAL...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES NOT DROPPING TO 1290 M              
UNTIL THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME ON WEDS. THIS WARRANTS ADJUSTING PRECIP             
TYPE TO A MIX IN ALL AREAS VS STRAIGHT SNOW. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP                
LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND THIS WARMING TREND MAY NEED TO CONTINUE IN               
THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE AS GUIDANCE HAS MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 40.                 
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL DROP IN EVOLVING FLOW...WITH THE              
FIRST ONE SOMETIME FRI/FRI NGT AND ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLY LATE SAT                
INTO SUNDAY. SOME MODELS EVEN HINT AT FIRST SYSTEM CLOSING OFF A                
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD SPELL OUT A WET              
/WHITE/ WEEKEND. WITH UNCERTANTITY IN EXACT EVOLUTION OF                        
PATTERN...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. ENOUGH ON THE             
PLATE BEFORE THEN TO SORT OUT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF               
THE PERIOD WITH MODERATION TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST            
PERIOD.                                                                         
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN                                                       
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM....FISHER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
620 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FCST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE REVOLVES AROUND IFR CEILINGS AND              
VSBYS DUE TO RAIN/SHOWERS.                                                      
AT 22Z..SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WARM FRONT FROM NRN ARKANSAS                    
..EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL LIFT               
NORTH INTO SRN IL...CNTRL INDIANA AND SRN OHIO BY 12Z TUESDAY.                  
WARM...MOIST ASCENT WAS OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS             
EVENING.  THIS COMPONENT...COMBINED WITH AN UPR LVL S/WV PASSING                
ACRS NRN IL...NRN IN...AND SRN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WILL              
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING.  RUC40 MODEL INDICATED SOME             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACRS SRN IL/SRN IN ATTM...AND THERE WERE SOME              
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THERE.  THIS INSTABILITY IS FCST TO            
MOVE ACRS THE SRN/SERN CWFA THIS EVENING.  WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE            
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH               
RAIN.                                                                           
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE...RESULTING             
IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS.  THERE ALSO COULD BE A PERIOD OF                
DRIZZLE.  LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF               
TUESDAY.  THEN...A STRONG UPR LVL H5 LOW WILL PIVOT EASTWARD INTO               
THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE FCST             
AREA DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...ANOTHER SURGE OF                        
WARM...MOIST AIR AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN PCPN.  THIS             
SHOULD BE MORE OF A SHOWERY PCPN...AND GIVEN PRECIPITABLE                       
WATER VALUES APCHING 1.4 INCHES...SOME LOWER VSBYS IN SHOWERS CAN BE            
EXPECTED.  ALSO...THERE WILL BE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO SOME                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  WILL ONLY INCLUDE CB CLOUD                
WORDING ATTM FOR THE TAF SITES...BUT LATER SHIFTS/TAF ISSUANCES WILL            
NEED TO PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.                                        
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE H5 UPR              
LVL LOW WILL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING.  SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL              
FUNNEL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND SOME RAIN AND/OR             
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WRAP AROUND MSTR AND LAKE                  
EFFECT INFLUENCES.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NAM QUICKLY CATCHES ONTO INTENSIFICATION OF                
UPSTREAM SYSTEM AND WILL FOLLOW WITH SIMILAR GFS ADDING TO TIMING               
CONFIDENCE AS WELL.AREA OF RAIN QUICKLY EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL                
ILLINOIS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST. RAFL ASSOCIATED WITH MO SHORT WAVE              
ENERGY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND STRONG ISENT 300K LIFT/SATURATION              
TAPPING OVER 8J/KG AIRMASS OVER MID MS VLY. CPDS QUICKLY FALL FROM              
OVER 100 MB TO LT 30 MB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. WILL NOT OFFER TOO MUCH            
TIMING DETAIL THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO                 
RAPIDLY ADVANCE/DEVELOP NORTHEAST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE              
POTENTIAL MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. 180KT UL JET DIGGING             
INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES TO FUEL STRONG LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS. DEEPENING            
LOW TO TRACK FROM NORTHWEST OK AT 12Z TUE TO NEAR ORD 00Z WED.                  
EXTREME 0-1KM HELICITIES ON ORDER OF 400-500 M2/S2 IMMEDIATELY                  
ALONG/AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LONG/CURVED HODO IN 60-80KT OF 0-6KM             
BULK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...LENDS TOWARD ENHANCED TORNADO RISK                     
ESPECIALLY 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME. LACK OF CAPE WITH MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG            
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE DPS INTO MID 60S ACROSS             
OHIO VALLEY WITH NEAR 60 INTO SOUTHERN CWA ALONG WITH STRONG                    
DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP OVERCOME. 65 TO 70 KT 8H JET WITH COLD FRONT               
POINTS TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF COLD                
FRONT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE...MORE FALL/WINTER LIKE PATTERN            
CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.             
AS DISCUSSED IN SHORT TERM...DEFINITE SVR THREAT WILL                           
EXIST...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS MAINLY EAST. NAM            
IS MUCH FASTER PUSHING SQUALL LINE THROUGH WITH GFS SOMEWHAT SLOWER.            
REGARDLESS...PRECIP LOOKS TO WIND DOWN BY 5Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW DRY              
SLOT WORKING IN BEHIND THE LINE THAT COULD VERY WELL BRING ANY                  
PRECIP TO AN END THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP                 
WOULD BE WITH WRAP AROUND MSTR AND LAKE EFFECT AS COLD AIR FILTERS              
IN. 850 MB FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY SW THROUGH 00Z THURS...SO MAIN                
LAKE EFFECT CONCERN WOULD BE PARTS OF BERRIEN COUNTY AND FURTHER                
NORTH. WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT LAYOUT OF POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.               
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS COLDER AIR...MODELS ALSO SLOWER ON ITS             
ARRIVAL...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES NOT DROPPING TO 1290 M              
UNTIL THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME ON WEDS. THIS WARRANTS ADJUSTING PRECIP             
TYPE TO A MIX IN ALL AREAS VS STRAIGHT SNOW. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP                
LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND THIS WARMING TREND MAY NEED TO CONTINUE IN               
THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE AS GUIDANCE HAS MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 40.                 
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL DROP IN EVOLVING FLOW...WITH THE              
FIRST ONE SOMETIME FRI/FRI NGT AND ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLY LATE SAT                
INTO SUNDAY. SOME MODELS EVEN HINT AT FIRST SYSTEM CLOSING OFF A                
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD SPELL OUT A WET              
/WHITE/ WEEKEND. WITH UNCERTANTITY IN EXACT EVOLUTION OF                        
PATTERN...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. ENOUGH ON THE             
PLATE BEFORE THEN TO SORT OUT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF               
THE PERIOD WITH MODERATION TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST            
PERIOD.                                                                         
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM....FISHER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
215 PM MST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)                                             
MAIN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.               
STRONG VORT LOBE COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE SUPPORTING SURFACE COLD               
FRONT OVER WYOMING. IT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE CWA THIS                          
EVENING...BRINGING WIND AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW. TOP                
DOWN CHARTS OFF THE LATEST RUC YIELD RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO              
SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD BE SOME VIRGA TO START AS PRECIPITATION            
FALLS THROUGH VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS. NAM METEOGRAMS WITH 3 DIFFERENT            
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS ALSO SHOW RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WARM             
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION...MAYBE             
A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. AS FOR WIND...CLOSELY FOLLOWED                  
LATEST RUN (19Z) OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUC20. EXPECT THE FRONT TO              
BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA 03Z-04Z. A BRIEF GUST TO NEAR WARNING                 
CRITERIA POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY 25-30KT            
WINDS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WIND ADVISORY SHOULD HANDLE            
THE OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HIGHER              
GUSTS NEAR CONVECTIVE VIRGA/RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.                                  
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST WINDS HAVE COME DOWN COMPARED TO                    
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL TO MEET WARNING            
CRITERIA FOR SUSTAINED OR GUSTS. RUC20 AND NGM MOS SHOWING SUSTAINED            
WINDS 35-40KTS...WHILE MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF BUFKIT AND 750-800MB               
WINDS SUGGEST MAXIMUM GUST POTENTIAL OF AROUND 50KTS. TOO CLOSE TO              
CALL AT THIS TIME...SO LEFT THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. 850MB                 
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.                
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THESE PERIODS WITH              
ACTIVE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT LOWERING                
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. GFS ADVERTISING ANOTHER              
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...BUT DIFFICULT TO FIND             
ANYTHING IN THE ETA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL APPEAR TOO DRY TO                 
SUPPORT A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.                                             
.LONG TERM... (FRIDAY - MONDAY)                                                 
UPPER PATTERN RATHER STATIC THIS PERIOD...WITH A REX BLOCK ALONG THE            
WEST COAST AND MEAN TROUGH POSITION NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH                  
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. CHALLENGE WILL BE TO IDENTIFY                      
SHORTWAVES...NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS WANT TO            
BRING FIRST WAVE THROUGH IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING                      
PERIOD. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY IN                   
QUESTION AND WILL LEAVE A DRY FORECAST. SECOND WAVE QUICKLY                     
FOLLOWS IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY PERIOD. GFS MAYBE A LITTLE              
TOO ROBUST WITH 700MB MOISTURE...AND COMBINED WITH DIFFERENCES IN               
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECMWF NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY                 
POPS. ANOTHER CONCERN NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE MORE WIND...FAIRLY                    
STRONG UPPER JET WITH THE SYSTEM...BEST MIXING POTENTIAL ON THE                 
BACKSIDE WOULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. MODELS TRY TO               
BREAK DOWN WEST COAST RIDGE IN LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER              
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MUCH SLOWER TO BRING HIGHER THICKNESSES EAST OF               
THE ROCKIES. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS TEMPERATURE                           
GUIDANCE...WITH ENSEMBLE AVERAGE RUNNING 5-10F COLDER THAN THE                  
OPERATIONAL MOS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL RUN WITH PERSISTENCE                 
AND THE MAJORITY AND HAVE ONLY SLOW WARMING.                                    
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-                
     KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-KSZ027-                   
     KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042.                                               
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     KSZ001-KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-                   
     KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042.                                        
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079-                
     NEZ080-NEZ081.                                                             
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     NEZ079-NEZ080-NEZ081.                                                      
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090-COZ091-COZ092.             
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     COZ090-COZ091-COZ092.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1051 AM MST MON NOV 14 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST TO CANCEL THE                  
WIND ADVISORY AND ADJUST VARIOUS PARAMETERS. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A                 
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.                                                      
AT 1745Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT              
FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...VERY CLOSE                
TO THE 12Z NAM 18Z POSITION. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING                  
OFFICES AND 12Z NAM ANALYSIS I HAVE PULLED THE ADVISORY THAT WAS                
TO BE IN EFFECT FROM 21Z-01Z TODAY FOR THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF OUR                 
AREA.                                                                           
GIVEN THE CURRENT NAM PERFORMANCE HAVE USED IT FOR THE MORNING                  
UPDATE WIND WISE WITH THE RUC FOR DEWPOINTS. FORECAST HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES IN THE BALLPARK SO NO CHANGES MADE THERE.                          
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH VERY QUICKLY THIS EVENING HAVE               
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH SOME                           
PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IT WOULD                   
APPEAR THAT THERE IS A 1 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF WINDS POSSIBLY                     
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA FROM WINDS GETTING MIXED DOWN FROM THE                
SHOWERS OR THE IMMEDIATE PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS                   
WILL BE A VERY SHORT TERM PROBLEM AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.                  
ON TUESDAY THE LATEST 900-750 WINDS SUGGEST WARNING CRITERIA WILL               
BE MET BUT THEY HAVE COME DOWN FROM THE 12Z FORECAST FROM SUNDAY.               
MET WINDS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ADVISORY                     
CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE MET AND FOR NOW WE HAVE KEPT THE HIGH WIND               
WATCH IN EFFECT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM              
     MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-                    
     KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-                   
     KSZ042.                                                                    
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     KSZ001-KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-                   
     KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042.                                        
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM              
     MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079-NEZ080-NEZ081.                           
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     NEZ079-NEZ080-NEZ081.                                                      
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR             
     COZ090-COZ091-COZ092.                                                      
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     COZ090-COZ091-COZ092.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
318 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT               
AND TUESDAY.                                                                    
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NEAR            
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST                    
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL                   
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE CONVERGENCE.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY            
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...AS THE                  
SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.                      
LATE THIS EVENING THE 12Z GFS CRANKS OUT A BUNCH OF QPF ALONG THE               
FRONT...BUT IT IS OBVIOUSLY CONTAMINATED BY INTENSE GRID SCALE                  
FEEDBACK.  WE LIKE HPC/S IDEA OF SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE GFS                   
SOLUTION...ONLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND LESS THAN HALF THE 3 INCH               
QPF IN THE GFS.                                                                 
MAIN ISSUE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT IS ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY                
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH...WITH LOTS OF CONVECTION COMPETING FOR IT.              
WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF            
THE WARM FRONT.  GIVEN SOME WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL                           
FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR TONIGHT...BUT             
A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.           
THE BAND OF QPF SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY             
MORNING...BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF               
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THAT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR               
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WITH STRONG FORCING            
AND TREMENDOUS WIND FIELDS...A HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD              
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL              
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHES              
EASTWARD.  THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY STORMS THAT            
CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                                               
WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL                          
MENTIONED...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY                   
RAINFALL MENTIONED FOR TUESDAY.  THE 12Z MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT              
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST              
JUST AFTER 18Z AND WILL END IN THE EAST 00-03Z TUESDAY EVENING.                 
THERE SHOULD BE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION                 
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.              
FOR BREVITY WILL NOT TALK TOO MUCH ABOUT THE POST FRONTAL                       
FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO SAY THAT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER...WITH                 
HIGHS ONLY THE 40S WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY            
NIGHT.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT...SO BASICALLY              
WENT NEAR THE RUC 00Z TEMPERATURE FOR LOWS.  FAVORED THE MAV                    
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WITH LITTLE INSOLATION EXPECTED.  THE               
MET LOOKED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MAV               
MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
FROM THURSDAY ON...WILL BE LOOKING AT A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WITH             
H50 N TO NW FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI                 
VALLEY WILL DOMINATE THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE              
CHILLY SIDE...SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF                
YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.            
AS THE HIGH EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IT WILL               
WEAKEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.                  
LATEST MODELS SWING TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE                     
REGION...THE FIRST ON FRIDAY AND THE SECOND ON SUNDAY. THE ONE ON               
FRIDAY WILL PASS BY DRY WITH MOISTURE REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE               
FORECAST AREA AND THE GULF SHUT OFF. THE SECOND ONE WILL BRING AN               
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AND                
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE PULLED THEM FOR NOW GIVEN DRY ENVIRONMENT               
AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL HELP REINFORCE THE AT              
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STUCK CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND WENT            
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE LOWS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1058 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SLOWLY                   
ERODING THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDOMINATELY            
VFR...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. MOST PRECIP REPORTS ARE OF                
10SM/-RA...ALTHOUGH DUH/TOL CAME IN AT 03Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITY.                
PRECIP TYPE STILL A CONCERN...AS 00Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL               
HAVE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2KFT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...             
03Z TAMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING TO THE NORTH FROM DTW SHOWS A NEARLY                 
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER BELOW 870MB...WITH DRY LAYER STILL AROUND               
800MB. THIS EARLY INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO                  
SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. HOWEVER HEAVIER PRECIP RETURNS HAVE               
LEAD TO A MIX WITH SOME GRAUPEL IN HOWELL AND WHITE LAKE. BASED ON              
EXPECTED DURATION BEFORE WARM ADVECTION PICKS UP FURTHER...WILL                 
HIGHLIGHT MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH SHORT-TERM FORECASTS. BACK             
EDGE OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR                
SOUTHWEST LOWER...WITH A TIMING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE                    
TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO 00Z RUC13/NAM DEPICTION...IN LINE WITH GOING               
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...638 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                          
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE            
ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...                     
STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY. GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM             
IN ADDITION TO LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS FURTHER               
REMOVED FROM THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID CLOUD DECK            
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ELEVATED LIFT             
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WORK TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR BELOW 700MB                 
APPARENT ON 22Z/23Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SINCE               
LAST NIGHT FROM TEXAS THROUGH MISSOURI SUPPORT TIME SECTION AND MOS             
FORECASTS OF LIFR CIGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WORST CONDITIONS                
EXPECTED AT DTW/DET OVERNIGHT...AND DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY FARTHER            
NORTH AND FNT/MBS. BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS THE MAIN                  
SYSTEM GETS GOING OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE STRONG PACIFIC JET               
CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW STATUS LOOKS TO            
HOLD TOUGH UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH...WHICH IT SHOULD                   
QUICKLY BREAK UP WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...414 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                  
A RAINY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR SE LOWER MICHIGAN. DESPITE THE DRY AIR              
BELOW 700 MB...VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUCCESSFULLY                   
SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN AS IMPRESSIVE 850 TO 700 MB                          
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LIFTS NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.             
THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE 850 FRONT AND RIGHT                 
ALONG THE SLIGHTLY SPEEDIER 700 MB FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE               
APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION                
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY...THUS REMOVED SNOW WORDING INSTEAD TO GO             
WITH ALL RAIN. WITH GOOD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET OF                    
PRECIP...THE WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING HEIGHT BOTH LOWER TO AROUND             
2K FEET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. DON'T THINK THIS WILL BE QUITE GOOD                 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT 1000-850MB                   
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1300 METERS. IT COULD BE               
CLOSE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES                   
OBSERVED A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MIX OVERNIGHT...BUT WARM AIR                    
ADVECTION BEHIND 850 FRONT WON'T ALLOW THIS TO LAST VERY LONG. THUS             
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION SNOW TONIGHT.                                  
850 FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH BY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT REMAINS JUST             
SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...BUT A             
FULLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH SOME WEAK LIFT LINGERING COULD TAP OFF              
SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIOR TO THE SURFACE FRONT                   
LIFTING NORTH.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...414 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005           
OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED UPSTREAM HEIGHTS AND WIND               
FIELDS WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG                 
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO                   
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE                  
WEATHER TUESDAY EVENING... WITH STRONG WINDS USHERING VERY COLD AIR             
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                        
A 180KT UPPER JET CORE WAS SHOWN ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA ON THE 12Z             
UPPER AIR PLOTS. THIS JET WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH                    
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY                    
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT             
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 18Z TUES. THE GFS/UKMET/NAM                  
INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND EXTREME            
NW LOWER MI TUES NIGHT. THE WRFXX AND CANADIAN ARE JUST A LITTLE                
FARTHER WEST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TOWARD THAT OF A STRONGER             
SYSTEM AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE NORTHEASTWARD                   
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW. AT THIS TIME... LEANING TOWARD THE              
SLOWER AND STRONG NAM SOLUTION ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS               
POINT ARE MINOR.                                                                
A COUPLED UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW THE UPPER WAVE TO                
AMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY 06Z WED. THIS WILL              
ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO LAKE                   
MICHIGAN TUES EVENING. FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WITHIN THE 850-500MB                
LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SE MICHIGAN TUES AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED             
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SPELL CATEGORICAL PRECIP. THE SURFACE             
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BOTH NAM              
AND GFS SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET CORE AROUND 60KTS NOSING INTO SE                   
MICHIGAN...CREATING A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE WEATHER              
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO RELY HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE            
TO ADVECT INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE 12 AND 18Z NAM SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE               
ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG...WITH 925MB LIS AROUND 0C. NOT SURE IF THIS               
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE VERY STRONG SHEAR. IF BY             
CHANCE...A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO ADVECT INTO SE                    
MICHIGAN...THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SPC                
DAY2 OUTLOOK THUS CONTINUES TO HAVE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-69 IN A                
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH 50 TO 55KTS OF WIND DOWN TO 2K             
FT TUES EVENING THOUGH... EVEN WEAK CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO                   
TRANSPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.                                   
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TUES              
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE STRAITS REGION... DEEPENING TO                
AROUND 980MB. GOOD BURST OF SUBSIDENCE LATE WED NIGHT ALONG WITH A              
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING VERY                  
STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO            
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR              
ADVECTION. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN THE             
MIXED LAYER BY WED AFTERNOON... SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH END               
WIND ADVISORY EVENT OR PERHAPS ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT. WILL            
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.                                                      
SOME MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW ON WED.                
THIS COUPLED WITH FALLING 850MB TEMPS WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES. WITH 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO -14C BY 00Z THU IN                  
WISCONSIN... INSTABILITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE QUITE HIGH.                  
STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD EASILY BRING RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY            
INTO SE MICHIGAN WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... PERHAPS LEADING              
TO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WED EVENING.                                        
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS                  
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA...HELPING TO             
MAINTAIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AT LEAST INTO THE             
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE WAVE DROPPING             
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD             
ENOUGH TO WHERE LAKE EFFECT MAY BE ENHANCED DUE TO LIFT FROM THE                
SHORT WAVE. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS. A            
STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE              
GFS SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN COMPARISON TO THE EUROPEAN AND              
NOGAPS. SINCE ALL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER JET            
AROUND 150KTS... PREFER THE DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN.               
THIS SOLUTION ACTUALLY CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES               
BY SUNDAY. SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DEEPER SOLUTION... MAY SEE ENOUGH              
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE PRECIP               
TYPE TO RAIN. WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US... WILL            
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN           
TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.              
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 10 PM              
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
AVIATION.....BRAVENDER                                                          
SHORT TERM...SHULER                                                             
LONG TERM....CONSIDINE                                                          
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
920 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO                 
LOWER TEMPS A BIT TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND TO                      
CORRESPONDINGLY INCLUDE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.                 
LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING            
OVER A GOOD PART OF INTERIOR UPPER MICHIGAN WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS NOT            
COMPLETELY KEEPING THINGS FROM RADIATING. THICKER AC AND SOME LOWER             
CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN LIFTING INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN                       
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS            
FEATURE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING MUCH MORE OVER THE                
EASTERN UP...BUT INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN MAY                
COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL RH INCREASES AND CLOUD              
COVER DEVELOPS AS ADVERTISED BY THE RUC AND NAM. THERE STILL IS SOME            
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO             
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AND FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE                 
KEWEENAW. AM NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL GIVEN THE FAIRLY              
SHALLOW MOISTURE WHICH IS ADVERTISED...CONFINED TO 3K FEET AND                  
BELOW...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD HELP SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE. WITH              
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LIKELY TO REMAIN THERE UNTIL                    
SOUTHEAST FLOW BOOSTS RH AND CLOUDS THICKEN...THERE COULD BE POCKETS            
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IF ANY DRIZZLE MANAGES TO DEVELOP.                          
OTHERWISE...THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT AND             
INTO TUESDAY...SO DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES. WILL LEAVE             
THE WINTER STORM WATCH ALONE AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE A             
CLOSER LOOK AT THE 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECIDING HOW TO ADJUST THE               
HEADLINES...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN LOOKS LIKE             
IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.                                         
TRH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (LATER PERIODS)...                                             
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE PROGRESS OF               
THE LOW IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER IDEA...IT              
ALLOWS FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE NE WITH THE SHRTWV OVER                    
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z...THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL SHOW THE LOW NEAR             
CHICAGO WITH VARYING INTENSITIES. PREFER THE DEEPER GFS/NAM WHICH               
BOTH SHOW 994MB AT 00Z IN COMPARISON TO THE UKMET WHICH IS 1001MB.              
ANOTHER REASON TO PREFER THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS IS THAT CONVECTION                
WILL BE GOING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH DUE TO LATENT HEAT RELEASE            
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DEEPER SYSTEM. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF                 
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING HOURS FROM                
UPSLOPE...THEN AS DEEPER MOISTURE COMES IN IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM               
THE LOW MOVING CLOSER...HAVE BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS. THESE LIKELY               
POPS ARE CONFINED THOUGH TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER BECAUSE OF DRY MID             
LEVEL AIR PREVENTING PRECIP. IN FACT...12Z NAM SUGGESTED LITTLE IF              
ANY QPF DURING THE DAY.                                                         
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHRTWV TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN               
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST TUESDAY               
NIGHT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND LATENT             
HEAT RELEASE FROM CONVECTION AND LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REALLY ALLOW THE            
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN. TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT 12Z                
WED...THE TRACK RANGES FROM NEAR STANNARD ROCK FROM THE 12Z RUC13 TO            
JUST NE OF WHITEFISH POINT BY THE 12Z NAM. ALTHOUGH THIS DIFFERENCE             
SEEMS SMALL...IT HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION                        
TYPE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P.. FOR THE WEST                
HALF OF THE U.P....THERE IS NO PROBLEM WITH HAVING SNOW DUE TO                  
DYNAMIC AND ADVECTIVE COOLING PROCESSES IN THE DEFORMATION BAND ON              
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HERE...THE QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE ANYWHERE                
FROM 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH...YIELDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12                   
INCHES. HAVE WENT WITH A 12 TO 1 SNOWFALL RATIO BECAUSE OF THE                  
WETNESS OF THE SNOW (SNOW GROWTH LAYER BETWEEN 12000 TO 15000 FT AND            
A DEEP AGGREGATION LAYER BELOW THAT). LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO                
COME INTO PLAY DUE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C (LAKE TEMPS ARE +6 TO              
+8C). FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P....ENOUGH WARM AIR LOOKS TO WRAP             
IN THAT WILL EITHER RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR FLAT OUT                       
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN TRACKS PREVENT                 
SINGLING OUT ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS PREDOMINANT AT THIS POINT.               
ON WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO SNOW              
BY 12Z. SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE DROPPING -10 TO -12C BY                           
18Z...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT. NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW               
SUGGEST MAINLY THE WESTERN U.P. AND AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE BEING               
AFFECTED. NEXT PROBLEM IS WINDS. SINCE THE LOW MAY BE IN THE UPPER              
970S MB FOR PRESSURE...A GALE EVENT ON BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND                  
MICHIGAN IS LIKELY. IN FACT...THE NEW 18Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIALLY A            
STORM EVENT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS THE DEEPER                    
SOLUTIONS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE (ALSO SUGGESTED            
BY THE 12Z ECMWF).                                                              
NOTE...18Z NAM...GIVEN THAT IS DEEPER...BRINGS MUCH MORE QPF INTO               
THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ALL OF THIS IS                   
EXPECTED BE SNOW. CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. MAY BECOME               
VERY DANGEROUS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WET SNOW              
POSSIBLY COMING DOWN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR AND N WINDS UP TO 30            
MPH.                                                                            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH LIFTS OUT                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN              
CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -15 TO -20C. PROBLEM IS AT THE SAME              
TIME...THIS COLD AIR IS VERY DRY...WHICH MAY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT.                 
THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS            
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN...HAVE LOWERED               
MINS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE INTERIOR. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT             
AND WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK FROM WEDNESDAY...GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO              
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED             
TO STAY UP DUE TO THE LINGERING GRADIENT FROM WEDNESDAY\S                       
LOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. ON THURSDAY...DRY               
AIR WILL REALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MINNESOTA.               
WARM ADVECTION ALSO KICKS IN HELPING TO RAISE 850MB TEMPS TO -10 TO             
-13C BY 21Z. HOWEVER...THESE TEMPS ARE STILL COLD SO EXPECTING HIGHS            
TO STAY BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.                           
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE               
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOWING A WESTERN                         
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SETUP. THEREFORE...COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE.             
DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ALSO IN                
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...GIVING              
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST. SHRTWV TROUGH COMING DOWN            
THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGING OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO MOVE                 
QUICKLY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH STRONGER                 
SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN. HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THE             
FIRST SHRTWV. THE SECOND MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH               
UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A LOW ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO            
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY WARM TO -4 TO -6C.                    
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS NOT THAT                       
STRONG...ONLY DROPPING THE 850MB TEMPS TO -8C...THESE ARE STILL                 
PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT IN NW FLOW AREAS FOR                 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON (GIVEN NW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS).              
SHRTWV THAT MOVED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE TURNED INTO A              
FULL-LATITUDE EASTERN TROUGH BY SATURDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION                
SETS IN AGAIN LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE IS                
FLATTENED OUT BY A STRONG SHRTWV IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS SHRTWV            
WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON                       
MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE             
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT AND POTENTIAL FOR PATTERNS TO END              
UP BEING SLOWER...HAVE NEGLECTED TO THROW IN POPS AT THIS POINT.                
MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OUT OF THE EXTENDED WITH 850MB TEMPS               
RISING TO APPROX +4C.                                                           
AJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
   WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUE THROUGH WED MIZ009>011.                          
   WINTER STORM WATCH TUE NIGHT AND WED MIZ001>005-084.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN               
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...                                             
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS TO BE EXPECTED WINTER STORM FOR                   
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.                                                        
CURRENT WEATHER...19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED A RIDGE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN                 
SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRUNG OUT SHRTWV FROM CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA              
INTO SE IDAHO. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SHRTWV NOTED BY INCREASED               
DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IS LOCATED OVER SE IDAHO. RIGHT ALONG THE              
WEST SIDE OF THE SHRTWV...12Z RAOBS SHOWED 250MB WINDS ON THE ORDER             
OF 130-160 KT...GREATEST FROM THE CASCADES TO THE CENTRAL BRITISH               
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS...WARM              
ADVECTION CONTINUES...NOTED BY 850MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 35KT             
AT BIS AND ABR AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1 MB/HR.              
THIS MAX IN PRESSURE FALLS IS LOCATED NEAR GRAND FORKS. ANOTHER AREA            
OF PRESSURE FALLS IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ON THE                 
ORDER OF 2-3MB/HR. THESE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1003MB            
LOW IN NW NEBRASKA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTH                 
DAKOTA. PRESSURES ARE ALSO RISING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE LOW (3 MB/HR               
OVER WYOMING)...DUE TO A 1038MB HIGH LOCATED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA              
BUILDING IN. CLOSER TO HOME...CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE                
AREA AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. OTHER THAN FOR             
LOW CLOUDS COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HEADING INTO THE EASTERN                
U.P....NEAREST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SW MINNESOTA AND IOWA. THE REASON              
FOR THIS IS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERING               
MOST OF ONTARIO. 12Z GRB AND APX SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEWPOINT                      
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-30C FROM 900-500MB. ESE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH                  
CONTINUES TO BRING THIS DRY AIR INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...12Z APX                
SOUNDING DID INDICATE A QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BELOW 900MB.                    
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE             
SHRTWV OVER IDAHO...THAT SHRTWV WILL DIG PRETTY FAR SOUTH...AND BY              
12Z IT IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS A RESULT             
OF THE DIGGING...THE LOW THAT IS OVER NEBRASKA IS PULLED SOUTHWARD              
THIS EVENING AND MOVES TO NEAR MIAMI OKLAHOMA BY 12Z TUE. IN THE                
MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL END UP DIGGING INTO             
NORTH DAKOTA...DEVELOPING A LOW NEAR GRAND FORKS BY 12Z TUE. UPPER              
MICHIGAN WILL NOT FEEL MUCH OF THE EFFECTS FROM EITHER OF THESE                 
SYSTEMS YET EXCEPT FOR MORE HIGH CLOUDS. BY SUNRISE...SOME LOWER                
LEVEL CLOUD OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS MAY PUSH NORTHWARD OVER UPPER                
MICHIGAN...BUT WITH ALL OF THE DRY AIR NOTED ON THE 12Z                         
SOUNDINGS...MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL NOT HAVE TOPS GREATER THAN 5000              
FT. SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUD MAY EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL                   
SECTIONS QUICKER TOO DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE            
RUC/NAM SHOWS. SINCE IT IS UPSLOPING...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED A CHANCE             
OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS               
TONIGHT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER.                                                 
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE PROGRESS OF               
THE LOW IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER IDEA...IT              
ALLOWS FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE NE WITH THE SHRTWV OVER                    
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z...THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL SHOW THE LOW NEAR             
CHICAGO WITH VARYING INTENSITIES. PREFER THE DEEPER GFS/NAM WHICH               
BOTH SHOW 994MB AT 00Z IN COMPARISON TO THE UKMET WHICH IS 1001MB.              
ANOTHER REASON TO PREFER THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS IS THAT CONVECTION                
WILL BE GOING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH DUE TO LATENT HEAT RELEASE            
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DEEPER SYSTEM. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF                 
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING HOURS FROM                
UPSLOPE...THEN AS DEEPER MOISTURE COMES IN IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM               
THE LOW MOVING CLOSER...HAVE BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS. THESE LIKELY               
POPS ARE CONFINED THOUGH TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER BECAUSE OF DRY MID             
LEVEL AIR PREVENTING PRECIP. IN FACT...12Z NAM SUGGESTED LITTLE IF              
ANY QPF DURING THE DAY.                                                         
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHRTWV TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN               
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST TUESDAY               
NIGHT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND LATENT             
HEAT RELEASE FROM CONVECTION AND LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REALLY ALLOW THE            
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN. TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT 12Z                
WED...THE TRACK RANGES FROM NEAR STANNARD ROCK FROM THE 12Z RUC13 TO            
JUST NE OF WHITEFISH POINT BY THE 12Z NAM. ALTHOUGH THIS DIFFERENCE             
SEEMS SMALL...IT HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION                        
TYPE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P.. FOR THE WEST                
HALF OF THE U.P....THERE IS NO PROBLEM WITH HAVING SNOW DUE TO                  
DYNAMIC AND ADVECTIVE COOLING PROCESSES IN THE DEFORMATION BAND ON              
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HERE...THE QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE ANYWHERE                
FROM 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH...YIELDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12                   
INCHES. HAVE WENT WITH A 12 TO 1 SNOWFALL RATIO BECAUSE OF THE                  
WETNESS OF THE SNOW (SNOW GROWTH LAYER BETWEEN 12000 TO 15000 FT AND            
A DEEP AGGREGATION LAYER BELOW THAT). LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO                
COME INTO PLAY DUE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C (LAKE TEMPS ARE +6 TO              
+8C). FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P....ENOUGH WARM AIR LOOKS TO WRAP             
IN THAT WILL EITHER RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR FLAT OUT                       
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN TRACKS PREVENT                 
SINGLING OUT ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS PREDOMINANT AT THIS POINT.               
ON WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO SNOW              
BY 12Z. SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE DROPPING -10 TO -12C BY                           
18Z...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT. NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW               
SUGGEST MAINLY THE WESTERN U.P. AND AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE BEING               
AFFECTED. NEXT PROBLEM IS WINDS. SINCE THE LOW MAY BE IN THE UPPER              
970S MB FOR PRESSURE...A GALE EVENT ON BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND                  
MICHIGAN IS LIKELY. IN FACT...THE NEW 18Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIALLY A            
STORM EVENT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS THE DEEPER                    
SOLUTIONS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE (ALSO SUGGESTED            
BY THE 12Z ECMWF).                                                              
NOTE...18Z NAM...GIVEN THAT IS DEEPER...BRINGS MUCH MORE QPF INTO               
THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ALL OF THIS IS                   
EXPECTED BE SNOW. CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. MAY BECOME               
VERY DANGEROUS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WET SNOW              
POSSIBLY COMING DOWN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR AND N WINDS UP TO 30            
MPH.                                                                            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH LIFTS OUT                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN              
CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -15 TO -20C. PROBLEM IS AT THE SAME              
TIME...THIS COLD AIR IS VERY DRY...WHICH MAY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT.                 
THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS            
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN...HAVE LOWERED               
MINS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE INTERIOR. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT             
AND WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK FROM WEDNESDAY...GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO              
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED             
TO STAY UP DUE TO THE LINGERING GRADIENT FROM WEDNESDAY\S                       
LOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. ON THURSDAY...DRY               
AIR WILL REALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MINNESOTA.               
WARM ADVECTION ALSO KICKS IN HELPING TO RAISE 850MB TEMPS TO -10 TO             
-13C BY 21Z. HOWEVER...THESE TEMPS ARE STILL COLD SO EXPECTING HIGHS            
TO STAY BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.                           
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE               
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOWING A WESTERN                         
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SETUP. THEREFORE...COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE.             
DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ALSO IN                
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...GIVING              
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST. SHRTWV TROUGH COMING DOWN            
THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGING OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO MOVE                 
QUICKLY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH STRONGER                 
SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN. HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THE             
FIRST SHRTWV. THE SECOND MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH               
UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A LOW ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO            
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY WARM TO -4 TO -6C.                    
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS NOT THAT                       
STRONG...ONLY DROPPING THE 850MB TEMPS TO -8C...THESE ARE STILL                 
PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT IN NW FLOW AREAS FOR                 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON (GIVEN NW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS).              
SHRTWV THAT MOVED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE TURNED INTO A              
FULL-LATITUDE EASTERN TROUGH BY SATURDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION                
SETS IN AGAIN LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE IS                
FLATTENED OUT BY A STRONG SHRTWV IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS SHRTWV            
WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON                       
MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE             
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT AND POTENTIAL FOR PATTERNS TO END              
UP BEING SLOWER...HAVE NEGLECTED TO THROW IN POPS AT THIS POINT.                
MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OUT OF THE EXTENDED WITH 850MB TEMPS               
RISING TO APPROX +4C.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
   WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUE THROUGH WED MIZ009>011.                          
   WINTER STORM WATCH TUE NIGHT AND WED MIZ001>005-084.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1152 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LWR MI WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS AFTN AS            
IT DRIFTS E. ALTHOUGH LAST OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STREAMING OFF              
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES ARE BREAKING UP...EXTENSIVE              
CI/CS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...AND THERE                  
SHOULD BE A TREND FOR THE CI TO THICKEN SOME DURING THE AFTN. GOING             
FCST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LWR 40S LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN EXPECTED             
LIMITED SUN.                                                                    
A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF              
NOTABLE TRENDS REGARDING THE MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA              
LATE TUE INTO WED. NAM/GFS ARE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS...AND SUGGEST               
HEAVY SNOW WILL TARGET AREAS AS FAR E AS NEGAUNEE AND IRON MOUNTAIN.            
OBVIOUSLY...THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GET THE                  
HEAVIEST SNOW WITH STRONG LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO                 
SYNOPTIC SNOW. CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IS FARTHEST W WITH A 979MB               
LOW NEAR MUNISING AT 12Z WED. RUC13 IS SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN...BUT            
QUITE A BIT WEAKER. UKMET TRACK IS SIMILAR TO NAM/GFS...BUT ITS                 
THERMAL FIELDS ARE WARMER AND MORE SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN SOLUTION.            
BASED ON THIS QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...DON'T ANTICIPATE               
MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING WATCH HEADLINES WITH THE FCST PACKAGE                  
COMING OUT LATE IN THE AFTN...BUT STAY TUNED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST                                        
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV/SFC             
LO THAT BROUGHT LATEST WIND STORM LIFTING STEADILY NEWD INTO QUEBEC.            
SHARP CYC FLOW LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE NE AS WELL WITH APRCH OF HI               
PRES RDG FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. -SHSN THAT DROPPED A               
FEW INCHES OF SLOPPY ACCUMULATION HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED WITH                   
DEPARTURE OF CYC FLOW...AND SKIES TENDING TO CLR NR THE WI BORDER AS            
DRIER AIR/LOWER INVRN HGT NR H9 SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX SDNGS                  
SLIDING IN THIS DIRECTION. PWAT ONLY 0.16 INCH AT INL. WINDS ALSO               
TENDING TO DIMINISH QUICKLY... AND ALL WIND HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED.             
ANOTHER STRG SHRTWV DIGGING SE OUT OF THE PACIFIC INTO SW CAN. 165KT            
H3 WIND SPEED OBSVD ON VANCOUVER ISLAND SUGS THIS SYS WL BE ANOTHER             
SGNFT WX MAKER IN A FEW DAYS. HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV AND            
OTHER SHRTWVS IN THE PAC NW/SW CAN ALREADY SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS.            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS/TYPE/TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV COMPLEX IN THE PAC NW/SW CAN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES ON WHAT              
IS LIKELY TO BE A SGNFT WX MAKER.                                               
RELATIVELY QUIET WX ON TAP FOR TDAY WITH SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES RDG             
BTWN DEPARTING SHRTWV AND DEEPENING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES DOMINATING            
THE UPR LKS. LINGERING SC NR LK SUP SHOULD DEPART THIS MRNG AS BOTH             
NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW SGNFT LO-MID DRYING (SEE INL/MPX SDNGS) WITH            
ARRIVAL OF SFC RDG AXIS. OTRW...EXPECT AN INCRS IN HI CLD NOW IN THE            
PLAINS AS GFS SHOWS MOISTENING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AOA THE 290K SFC            
(ABV H6). MIXING TO H9 ON THE GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS (AS OBSVD AT                   
INL/MPX) YIELDS HI TEMPS FM THE UPR 30S TO THE MID 40S...CONSISTENT             
WITH READINGS OBSVD YDAY UPSTREAM UNDER THE RDG AXIS.                           
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEPARATE SHRTWVS              
DEEPENING UPR TROF IN THE PLAINS TNGT. TWO DISTINCT LO PRES CENTERS             
FCST BY 12Z ACCOMPANYING THESE SEPARATE SHRTWVS...ONE NEAR THE RED              
RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER DEEPER ONE IN THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH                 
THERE WL BE SOME HI CLD ARND...GFS/NAM SHOW SLGTLY ACYC H85 FLOW                
BACKING MORE ESE IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES TO THE S AND W. THESE              
TRAJECTORIES WL TEND TO MAINTAIN DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TROP AND                
WEAKEN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280-290K SFCS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY              
OTHER SGNFT DYNAMICS UNDER SHRTWV RDGING DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING                
TROF TO THE W...GFS/NAM SHOW UPR CNVGC OR JUST WEAK UPR DVGC AND                
DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR DVGC MOST OF THE NGT. SINCE NAM/GFS GENERATE             
ONLY SPARSE PCPN AND CNDN SHOWS JUST SOME LGT AMTS NR THE WI                    
BORDER...HAVE CUT POPS TO JUST 30 ALONG THE WI BORDER/SRN TIER AFTER            
MIDNGT. WITH THE INFUSION OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LLVL AIR...LOWERED GOING            
FCST LO TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.                                                    
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER TOWARD PHASING SHRTWVS/CONGEALING                    
SEPARATE LOWS INTO ONE DISTINCT CENTER OVER SCNTRL LK MI AT 00Z WED.            
OTRW...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CNDN ON THIS                
SCENARIO. 12Z ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT DEEPER WITH A TRACK FARTHER W                
INTO WI...NOT UNRSNBL CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE H3 WINDS OBSVD            
IN SW CAN LAST EVNG/MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SLOWER/DEEPER SPINUP AND              
CONSISTENT ECMWF HANDLING OF SYS. NCEP ALSO PREFERS AN ADJUSTMENT TO            
THE W GIVEN 12Z ECMWF FCST. NAM/GFS SHOW INCRSG UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR               
H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE AFTN UNDER INCRSGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPR            
TROF AND IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX. NAM ALSO HINTS AT               
SOME JET COUPLING BY 00Z IN RRQ OF H3 JET IN ONTARIO...BUT OTHER                
MODELS LESS APRNT WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT PCPN TO              
BREAK OUT SW TO NE IN THE AFTN. PCPN TYPE A MAJOR CONCERN. NAM IS               
THE WARMEST WITH HIER H100-85 THKNS INDICATING AT LEAST A MIX WITH              
RA OVER THE ENTIRE FA. GFS IS A BIT COLDER...WHILE UKMET IS A                   
COMPROMISE IN BTWN. CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR FCST TO COME IN                   
TNGT...WL TEND TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT COLDER GFS AND MENTION JUST SN W             
OF BARAGA/IRON RIVER WITH A MIX TO THE E. FAIRLY STEEP LLVL LAPSE               
RATES RULE OUT ANYTHING BUT RA OR SN.                                           
PER NCEP DISCUSSION AND TREND TOWARD SLOWER/DEEPER LO...HAVE                    
GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE DEEPER AND FARTHER W CNDN FOR PRELIM               
DETAILS FOR THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM ON TUE NGT INTO WED. THIS MODEL             
SUGS DRY SLOTTING OVER THE ERN ZNS...WHERE THERE WL BE EITHER RA/SN             
OR JUST RA NR LK MI MAINLY BEFORE THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES LATER TUE                
NGT. BUT DIDN'T TRY TO TIME THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN LOWERING POPS A             
BIT THERE IN THE OVERNGT. MAIN DEFORMATION ZN BAND OF SN/                       
CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE W OF H5-7 LOW TRACK WL IMPACT THE FAR W...              
WHERE H85 TEMPS (ARND -7C TO -8C VS LK TEMP OF +8 TO 9C) WL BE LO               
ENUF FOR LK ENHANCEMENT IN SHARP CYC NNE FLOW DOWN THE W HALF OF LK             
SUP. THE SLOWER CNDN ALSO HINTS AT A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE LO ON              
WED...SO LINGERED CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THIS AREA THEN WITH                 
SHARP CYC FLOW. STRG WINDS MAY BE A THREAT WED MRNG ESPECIALLY OVER             
THE W IF THIS SOLN VERIFIES...CERTAINLY GALES ON LK SUP TUE NGT/WED.            
ALTHOUGH SHRTWV/LO PRES WL MOVE INTO ONTARIO LATER IN THE DAY...CNDN            
SHOWS BACKWASH MSTR/CYC FLOW LINGERING ALL DAY. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS             
OVER THE W THRU THE AFTN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR            
LATE TUE AFTN THRU WED FOR MQT-IMT AND W FOR GOOD POTENTIAL OF 6-12"            
OR MORE SN...GREATEST ARND IWD WHERE LK ENHANCEMENT WL BE MAXIMIZED.            
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH/NCEP.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
       WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUE THRU WED MIZ001>005-009>011-084.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
815 PM CDT THU NOV 14 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS POPS...AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE                
WEATHER. EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED NNE                 
ACROSS SW AND CENTRAL MS. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE             
TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY 00Z               
JAN SOUNDING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME            
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION AND SOMEWHAT              
RIGHTWARD DEVIANT MOTION...IS MOVING INTO MARION COUNTY ATTM. DEPTH             
OF REFLECTIVITY AND LIGHTNING HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE ON THIS STORM             
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.                                                   
COORDINATED WITH SPC WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THE REST              
OF THE NIGHT. JAN 00Z RAOB ACTUALLY WAS SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE WITH                
SBCAPE VALUE AROUND 1200 J/KG AND DECENT VEERING IN LOWEST 3 KM.                
WHILE SOME MID LEVEL WARMING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN WAA AHEAD OF                  
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER CENTRAL US...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY                     
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY               
SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT. NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT A STRONG OR            
EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE                    
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMBINES WITH ENOUGH LOW            
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PER 21Z            
SPC ENSEMBLES AND 00Z RUC...EXPECT MAIN RISK OF ANY SEVERE                      
CONVECTION TO FOCUS OVER W AND NW SECTIONS OF AREA TOWARD SUNRISE.              
RUC SHOWS DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN THIS AREA BY 12Z...WITH                  
MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG BY MORNING. AS LOW LEVEL JET                     
INCREASES...LOW LEVEL SHEAR DOES AS WELL WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES IN              
EXCESS OF 300 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40 KT.                   
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP IN THIS             
AREA. RUC SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL             
THETA-E ADVECTION...BUT WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS JUST SHOWERY ACTIVITY            
OR TRULY DEEP CONVECTION IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE TO DETERMINE. BASED              
ON PARAMETERS IN RUC/NAM/SREF AND PAST HISTORY WITH NOVEMBER SEVERE             
WEATHER EPISODES...CERTAINLY HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A                       
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH A TORNADIC RISK LATE                 
TONIGHT PARTICULARLY OVER THE DELTA. WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO WORD                
ACCORDINGLY.                                                                    
WITH REGARD TO POPS...WILL UPDATE TO GO BASICALLY SCATTERED                     
SHRA/TSRA MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY AS                 
SOUTHERLY LL FLOW MAINTAINS MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALL NIGHT AND STRATUS             
DECK DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.                                                  
AS FAR AS TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING. RUNS OF               
RUC MODEL SHOW A BIT STRONGER TROUGH THAN DAYTIME GFS/NAM MODELS                
SHOWED. WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE IF 00Z MODELS CONTINUE THIS                   
TREND...AND IF SO WHAT EFFECT IT HAS ON EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF SEVERE            
EVENT. STILL CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT BIGGEST SEVERE RISK IS IN THE               
NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THEN POINTS NORTH FROM                 
THERE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AEG/JPG                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
508 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CHUNK OF THE GLOBE CONTINUES TO BEHAVE AS IF IT             
WERE RAMPED UP ON STEROIDS. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COVERS             
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT CONFIGURATION OF THE UPPER FLOW IS ON               
THE VERGE OF UNDERGOING A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE AS VERY POWER 250MB JET            
(190KT AS SAMPLED BY SUNDAY EVENING RAOBS) DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE             
OF THE BROAD TROUGH AND CARVES OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE VIGOROUS TROUGH             
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER             
TODAY AND TONIGHT A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER                           
PANHANDLE(S)/SW KANSAS REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK                  
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND TAKE A HARD LEFT INTO THE                 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BOMBING BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OPENING             
THE FLOOD GATES FOR COLD CANADIAN AIR TO COME POURING SOUTHWARD.                
WHILE THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT               
FORWARD...THE DEVIL IS CERTAINLY IN THE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT 72                
HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK ALREADY SHOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW                   
VEERING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE             
MODELS INSISTENCE ON CRANKING UP SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP                 
TODAY OVER THE AREA. GFS/NAM/RUC ALL SHOW 30-40KT SOUTHERLY LOW                 
LEVEL JET RUNNING PERPENDICULARLY UP THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES TODAY.             
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED (AT BEST) SO ONLY RETAINED MENTION OF                 
THUNDER FAR SOUTH...BUT STILL SEEMS LIKELY SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT               
EARLY THIS MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS WEAK VORT              
LIFTS OUT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND WEAKENING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BY                 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TRIED TO INDICATE THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS FOR             
TODAY WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND POPS CONFINED TO THE MORNING SOUTH.           
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN FALLING INTO A COOL AND INITIALLY SUB-SATURATED            
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CHILLY TODAY. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE            
OVER MID MISSOURI WHERE IT WOULDNT SHOCK ME TO SEE TEMPS NOT CRACK              
THE BIG FIVE OH TODAY...FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE THE SUN COULD                   
BRIEFLY POKE OUT LATER TODAY HIGHS MAY INCH UP TO NEAR 60.                      
BY TONIGHT WE ENTER INTO OUR 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF TROPOSPHERE GONE              
WILD. SHOULD START OUT DRY AND COOL THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW                 
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST WITH WARM FRONT LURKING TO OUR                 
SOUTH OVER ARKANSAS. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS A BIT AND TRACKS                    
EASTWARD THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO GET DRUG NORTHWARD AS WELL.             
STRONG CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET TO              
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR                  
ELEVATE THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE                   
OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME ELEVATED MARGINAL              
HAILERS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD              
BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.                     
SPEAKING OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WE SHOULD SEE EVENING LOWS               
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING OVERNIGHT. BUT MORNING TEMPS WILLS             
PROBABLY BE IN THE 60S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IMMEDIATELY IN               
ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT WE WILL LIKELY SEE A AREAS OF DENSE FOG               
FORM AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SUCH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION               
WITH STRONG WARM FRONTS.                                                        
OTHER THAN A SMALL THREAT OF SOME ELEVATED MARGINAL HAILERS                     
INITIALLY...THE SEVERE THREAT WITH MORE SUBSTANCE SHOULD HOLD OFF               
UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR.              
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE PAST 2 TORNADO PRODUCERS IN OUR AREA              
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-1KM SRH            
>200 M2/S2. ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE A VERY LOW CAPE EVENT...SO                    
CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE SHALLOW WITH MORE OF A CHANCE OF                   
TORNADOS THAN HAIL OR WIND. OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA LOOKS TO SPEND MUCH            
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VERY JUICY WARM SECTOR...AND THAT WILL BE THE            
PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT             
COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT.                                                    
SEVERE THREAT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD END BY MIDDAY                  
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALREADY BE SENDING TEMPS                    
CRASHING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MOVES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL                  
MISSOURI. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL               
SEND TEMPS A TUMBLIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES                
REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY. 3HR PRESSURE RISES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH            
8MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER WAY              
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUSTS FREQUENTLY OVER 30-35 MPH...MAKING IT A                 
DELIGHTFUL DAY TO SLEEP IN!                                                     
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT GRADIENT NEVER RELAXES SO WE               
WONT REALIZE OUR FULL LOW TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL...OF COURSE IT WILL             
BE HARD TO CONVINCE PEOPLE OF THAT AS THEY WILL BE GREETED BY WIND              
CHILLS APPROACHING (IF NOT IN) THE TEENS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIKE             
IT OR NOT OLD MAN WINTER IS GOING TO VISIT THIS WEEK.                           
CONTINUED MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION GRADUALLY                 
TRANSITIONING TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ENSURE            
A COLD AFTERNOON. THE STING OF THE COLD MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY                
FULL SUNSHINE...BUT AFTER WEEKS OF 60S AND 70S EVEN FULL SUNSHINE               
ISNT GOING TO MAKE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S FEEL MUCH BETTER!                 
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE                
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. GFS DOES SHOW INCREASING HIGH LEVEL                       
MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS HAS A DEFINITE WET BIAS ALOFT SO NOT                     
CONVINCED THAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.                 
MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE NAM SUGGEST SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND                
WINDS LIGHT...SO IF THE NAM VERIFIES THE ONLY THING THAT MAY KEEP               
TEMPS ABOVE 20F WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE SOME DOWNWARD RADIATIVE HEAT             
TRANSFER AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR             
NOW NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT OUR GRIDS MAY                
STILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.                                                   
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED GRIDS! THANKS AGAIN TO THE HELPFUL                  
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING WFOS!                                        
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING                 
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND NOW ENGULF MOST OF THE             
CWA.  LOWEST CEILINGS STILL SOUTH OF THE MO/AR BORDER HOWEVER WOULD             
EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THE MORNING INTO THE 2500 TO                
3500 FOOT RANGE AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE.  UPPER SHORTWAVE TO               
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE.  AS THIS                  
FEATURE PUSHES EAST...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO                 
EAST.  LOW STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES EXIST AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY            
IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE MOST              
PREVELANT ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND SOMEWHERE NEAR               
THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER OVERNIGHT.  A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE                
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY INTO THE PLAINS AND                
EVENTUALLY MISSOURI.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF             
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ALLOWING              
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI TO GO INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  STRONG TO            
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE               
SGF/JLN 12Z TAFS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.                               
LINDENBERG                                                                      
&&                                                                              
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
958 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
PATCHY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR                  
NORTHERN PIEDMONT QUICKLY MOVED NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH EARLY               
EVENING... BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE                  
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE                
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 200% OF NORMAL... AND                    
TRAJECTORIES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN            
FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREEING ON CONTINUED                 
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. DESPITE ALL OF THIS MOISTURE... OTHER THAN                  
POSSIBLE FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IN SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AS                    
INDICATED ON THE LATEST 12HR RUC FORECAST... NO FOCUSING MECHANISM              
IS APPARENT AND AS SUCH WILL RETAIN ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR              
THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL INCLUDE A                   
MENTION OF FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA BASED ON LAST NIGHT'S CONDITIONS            
AND ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP SATURATED SURFACE BASED                
LAYER. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH BASED ON CURRENT                  
DEWPOINTS THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY NOT DROP BELOW 60.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 220 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL               
U.S TONIGHT THROUGH TUE WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC NEXT 48 HOURS. INCREASING LOW/MID              
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVER REGION              
OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC FIELDS...MAINLY BETWEEN 295K-300K...SUGGEST               
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE SPOTTY LIGHT                           
SHOWERS..MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST                
AREA. SHOWERS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF CHS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC                
FIELDS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION SO FAR. EVENING CREW/MID CREW              
WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR COVERAGE S-SE OF REGION FOR POSSIBLE                 
INCREASE IN POPS LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SLY              
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...GENERALLY 57-60.                   
TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MOIST SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE               
CLOUDINESS OVER AREA. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND               
295K...NOT MUCH DEPTH TO LIFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET            
TUE NIGHT AT WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH APPROACHING               
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER             
THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS W-E TUE NIGHT/WED               
MORNING. TEMPS REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS TUE 70-75 AND LOWS TUE NIGHT              
59-63.                                                                          
WED/WED NIGHT...SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH            
APPROACHES AND CROSSES REGION. FRONTAL MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE SLOW             
AS BEST UPPER DYNAMICS/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS N-NE ACROSS SOUTHERN            
CANADA. WHILE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING....850                  
TROUGH DOESN'T CROSS AREA UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED               
POPS A LITTLE LONGER WED NIGHT BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONTINUED               
MILD WED WITH UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S COASTAL PLAIN. MUCH COOLER WED            
NIGHT BUT NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SOME MIXING EXPECTED.             
RAISED MIN TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF TROUGH             
PASSAGE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW            
MORE DEGREES ESPECIALLY EAST HALF.                                              
THU/THU NIGHT...DEEP NW FLOW WILL USHER DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO               
REGION. MAX TEMPS THU A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH            
PROJECTED HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE.                               
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE              
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS AND OTHER            
MEDIUM RANGE HAD A INDICATED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH ATLC COAST            
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LATEST            
12Z/14 GFS NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS 06Z RUN WHICH INDICATED MID                 
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY(LATEST              
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS WERE SIMILAR ON THIS TIMING). ALSO GFS                    
INDICATING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG/JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLC             
COAST DURING MONDAY AND MOVING NORTH...HINTING AT A WET PICTURE FOR             
MONDAY. AT THIS POINT ACCEPTED HPC GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY            
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL                   
READINGS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY MOSTLY 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT               
LOWS IN THE 30S.                                                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOSTLY SCATTERED STRATOCU LAYER 4-6KFT...OCNL BKN AFTER 20Z...AT ALL            
TAF SITES. EXPECT CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT                
WITH CIGS BCMG 3-5KFT. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY VSBYS 3-5 MI FOG                    
DEVELOPING ACROSS AREA AFTER 09Z. THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT                
INDICATE AN AREA ISENTROPIC LIFT (295-300K) ALONG SPEED CONVERGENCE             
ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS AFTER 09Z THROUGH 12Z. THUS EXPECT               
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KFAY/KRWI WITH OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS               
PERIOD...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 13Z.                      
KGSO-KINT-KRDU VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.                                        
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1045 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR                       
WIND/TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS. MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE IS TO UPGRADE               
PORTIONS OF WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WATCH LATE TONIGHT                     
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THIS PERIOD WOULD NORMALLY BE A                 
DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR DEEP MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...IMPRESSIVE DEEP COLD              
ADVECTION PROGS WOULD LEAD US TO EXPECT DEEPER THAN "NORMAL"                    
MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS BEHIND FRONT. WE                
FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE WEAKER WITH              
LOWER LEVEL GRADIENT...BUT STILL HAVE 50KTS IN THE 875-850MB                    
LAYER. EXPECT CRITERIA FOR HIGH WIND WARNING TO BE MET MOSTLY IN                
THE FORM OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL                      
HOURS...BUT COULD STILL SEE 58+MPH GUSTS AT NORMALLY WINDIER                    
LOCATIONS (CHEYENNE/MEDICINE PARK/MINCO/ETC...) WHERE TERRAIN                   
EFFECTS WILL BE ENHANCED. ALTHOUGH MIXING DEPTH WILL BE INCREASING              
LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GRADIENT WILL BE               
WEAKENING AND MAGNITUDE OF WIND DECREASING...THUS WILL LET                      
ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                   
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY                      
TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE                  
FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN PROGD THERMODYNAMIC AND              
SHEAR PROFILES...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE MAIN                      
CONCERN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 348 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005)                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CONTINUED ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN AN INCREASE            
IN SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH               
THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEVELOPMENT NEAR A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO                   
COALGATE AND MADILL. RUC/NAM AGREE THAT THE LOWER/MID LEVEL WIND                
PROFILE WILL VEER FURTHER THROUGH 15Z RESULTING IN WARMER/DRIER AIR             
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING OVER THE                     
SOUTHEAST BY THIS TIME.                                                         
OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. WEST OF             
WHERE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME...VERY DRY CONTINENTAL               
EXISTS...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE TEENS OVER WESTERN KANSAS              
TO THE UPPER 20S OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHICH IS ALSO WHERE A                 
SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED. PRESSURES ARE ALREADY FALLING EAST OF                  
ROCKIES AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SOUTHERLY/                 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS            
MAY BEGIN RISING A LITTLE TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY AFTERNOON ONCE THE            
FLOW STRENGTHENS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE. THE RUC             
SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THUS HAVE            
USED THE RUC LARGELY FOR 1ST DEWPOINT GRIDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL             
LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF                    
OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING A                      
KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX OF OVER 250. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A RED             
FLAG WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 11A-6P WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE...TO            
LAWTON...DUNCAN...WICHITA FALLS...AND SEYMOUR. TEMPERATURES/WINDS               
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT CONCERNED ABOUT VERY LOW HUMIDITIES.             
STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA                    
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IS NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE A FEW HOURS SLOWER              
COMPARED TO MODELS 24 HRS AGO. MAIN IMPACT HERE MAY BE TO ALLOW                 
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO ADVECT A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND/OR WEST TO               
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. NAM/GFS AGREE THAT            
A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SET UP AFTER 00Z TUESDAY                
FROM SW MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR EASTERN                          
OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE                     
CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH INSTABILITY ON              
THE LOW SIDE...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL              
BE QUITE STRONG WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. THE               
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WILL LIKELY BE NARROW AND VERY LATE            
IN THE NIGHT (3 AM TO 9 AM).                                                    
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY SHOULD BE BET             
ALL AREAS WITH WINDS EVEN APPROACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR            
A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT.             
THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND THE              
FRONT WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE/MIXING AND                
FRONTAL DEPTH. THESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ALL DAY TUESDAY WITH                  
TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING LOW.                   
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROPOSED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH                     
EXTREMELY DRY AIR/CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS SUPPORTING                  
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM HOLDING OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH/WRNG AT THIS              
TIME...MAINLY TO EMPHASIZE OTHER MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. HOWEVER...            
ONE WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HRS.                       
STILL NO MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7.              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE WESTERN                     
PERIPHERY OF A GREAT LAKES/EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PERIODIC             
AND MAINLY QUICK MOVING FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY FEW DAYS THAT ALSO               
PREVENTS A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  45  51  27 /   0  20  10   0                              
HOBART OK         73  41  50  26 /   0  10   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  47  55  30 /   0  20  10   0                              
GAGE OK           71  35  47  22 /   0   0  10   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     63  40  49  26 /   0  20  10   0                              
DURANT OK         73  59  61  34 /  10  40  30   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR                
     OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-                   
     OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-                   
     OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ044.                                               
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-            
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-                   
     OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-                   
     OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-                   
     OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-                   
     OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ044.                                                      
     HIGH WIND WATCH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ022-OKZ023-           
     OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-                   
     OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-                   
     OKZ044.                                                                    
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR              
     OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-                   
     OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ021.                   
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-          
     OKZ006-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-                   
     OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-                   
     OKZ038-OKZ044.                                                             
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR                
     OKZ045.                                                                    
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ032-OKZ041-             
     OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                   
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR                
     TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087.                                        
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-            
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087.                                                      
     HIGH WIND WATCH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-           
     TXZ087.                                                                    
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-          
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088.                                               
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR                
     TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/22                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
748 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
SHOWERS IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.                  
THESE APPEARED TO BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HEATING...AN H7                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK H85 WARM ADVECTION. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS              
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION. BELIEVE THE                
RAIN CHANCE IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE                
REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 249 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.                
UNTIL THEN, WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WE ARE              
CAUGHT BETWEEN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND SHOWERS IN THE NC/GA                 
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE                
INCREASING MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP               
LOW POPS ALONG THE EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS ENTIRE                 
AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE                  
MORE LIFT. DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.               
WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER FOR WED WITH WEAK INSTABILITIES AND                  
SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR.                                                           
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSS THE               
AREA IN UPPER FLOW. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.            
GULF OF MEXICO CLOSED. SO, DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH               
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN.             
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER EXPECTING STRATUS TO                 
FORM WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1 THOUSAND FEET AND VSBYS 2-4 MILES.                  
AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT.                       
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
926 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AT 9 PM CST...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN SE COLORADO INTO WEST-CENTRAL           
KANSAS HAVING JUST MOVED THRU TRINIDAD AND SPRINGFIELD WITH A GUST              
TO 58 MPH AT SPRINGFIELD. 2 MB PLUS PER HR SFC PRESSURE RISES                   
INDICATED ON MSAS ANALYSIS IN CO...WY...AND NE BEHIND THE FRONT                 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH IT SOUTHWARD VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. 0Z                 
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH REGARDS TO              
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THUS NO MAJOR REVISIONS ARE                
PLANNED. OZ RUC IS PERHAPS AN HOUR FASTER THAN NAM AND OUR CURRENT              
FCST SO HAVE NUDGED THE FROPA A BIT EARLIER IN GRIDS...NOW INTO                 
OUR NRN COUNTIES AROUND 2-3 AM CST AND THROUGH LBB BY 4-5. ALSO OF              
SOME INTEREST IS BAND OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST                 
RUC AND NAM TAKE THE BAND INTO NE NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OKLA               
PANHANDLE BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT REMNANT                  
LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NW                  
COUNTIES. EXPECT ANY CLOUD COVER TO BE SHORT-LIVED THROUGH AND NOT              
OF MUCH CONCERN. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO CLOUD GRIDS TO SHOW PARTLY               
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT PASSES. UPDATED ZONES/PRODUCTS OUT               
SHORTLY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM TUESDAY FOR THE                         
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAILEY...BRISCOE...CASTRO...CHILDRESS...                       
COCHRAN...COTTLE...CROSBY...DICKENS...FLOYD...GARZA...HALE...                   
HALL...HOCKLEY...KENT...KING...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN...MOTLEY...                
PARMER...STONEWALL...SWISHER...TERRY...AND YOAKUM.                              
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE                
FOLLOWING ZONES: CHILDRESS...COCHRAN...COTTLE...CROSBY...                       
DICKENS...GARZA...HOCKLEY...KENT...KING...LUBBOCK...LYNN...                     
MOTLEY...STONEWALL...TERRY...AND YOAKUM.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/33                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1240 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF LWB...NEAR BLF/ROA AND             
LYH. STRONG WAVE DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS & A FEW TSTMS ACROSS             
THE TN VALLEY WHICH ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL TRACK ALONG THIS              
STALLED FRONT. I EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES                       
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR DAN WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE PRECIP. A             
PERIOD OF IFR IS LIKELY...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AS THE              
PRECIP PULLS AWAY TOWARD DAYBREAK AND BEFORE THE WINDS PICK UP LATER            
IN THE MORNING. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE                
AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH            
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1045 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
ONE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS GREENBRIER              
AND THE HIGHLANDS OF VA WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA SOON. NEXT            
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS MOVING UP INTO THE TN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.             
THIS SHOULD BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS NORTHEASTWARD INTO EXTREME SW              
VA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE               
BULK OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WE            
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS TO NEED A                 
LIKELY PROBABILITY OF PRECIP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CARRY             
ON INTO THIS EVENING...SO I ALSO ADJUSTED THE PRECIP PROBABILITIES              
INTO THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST             
VIRGINIA AND THE VA HIGHLANDS...AND WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS TO THE                
SOUTH WE WILL SEE A LOT MORE HEATING THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST                     
INDICATED. HAD TO RAISE MAX TEMPS NEARLY 5 DEGREES ACROS SOUTHERN               
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH SIDE VA AND NW PIEDMONT OF NC. FOR THE                
SAME REASON...FRONT STALLING FURTHER NORTH...I LOWERED THE PRECIP               
PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND NW NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 640 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
FRONTAL ZONE ENTERING AND STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES                       
WILL BRING SCTD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BLF/LWB AREA TODAY AND                    
TONIGHT. SMALLER CHANCES OF RAIN THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MVFR                  
CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT BLF/LWB WITH SOME IFR                   
EARLY AT LWB. MOSTLY VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN UNTIL LATE TODAY AS LIGHT               
SE FLOW INCREASES. MAINLY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTR                
INCREASES. BLF MAY REMAIN MVFR TNGT UNDER SE FLOW.                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WV ERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE            
TENN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST EARLY            
TODAY...STALLING HALFWAY ACROSS VIRGINIA...AND INTO FAR SW VIRGINIA.            
BEST LIFT IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE TN VLY...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE              
CENTRAL APPS...AS WEAK WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO PA. LOOKING AT                 
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MILD THIS                     
MORNING...AND WANT TAKE TOO MUCH TO WARM INTO THE 60S...SO GOING                
JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS...ESPECIALLY IN MY SERN CWA...WHERE               
INFLUENCE OF PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS.                                    
TONIGHT...LEANING MORE TOWARD GFS....AS STRONG SW FLOW WILL SHIFT               
THE FRONT WELL NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO PA. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER               
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ARRIVING IN THE CENTRAL APPS OVERNIGHT...SO                 
KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE WV INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS.                    
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL.                             
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
TUESDAY WE'LL SEE THE WARM FRONT MOVE FURTHER NORTH THRU THE MID                
ATLANTIC REGION LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF               
STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS THIS                
PD WILL SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PCPN COVERAGE. COLD FRONT BEING               
DRIVEN BY STRONG VORT CENTER TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z WED.                 
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR                  
COULD CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT                          
DEVELOP...HOWEVER INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. STILL               
WILL SEE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT               
AND WED MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE                    
STRONG GOING FROM +10C WED AT 12Z TO -8C 06Z THU. LKG AT PRESSURE               
RISES AND 850 WIND SPEEDS BEHIND FRONT DO NOT THINK ADVISORY WINDS              
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE SOME PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ON               
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL LIGHT ACCUMS.                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1239 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. APPEARS              
BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING                 
THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIFT WILL BRING LIGHT              
RAINFALL INTO THE ROANOKE AND LYH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE              
DANVILLE STAYS IN A DRIER REGIME...AS BATCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TO                 
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...NORTHEAST INTO NRN                 
VIRGINIA. SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME                
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT DANVILLE BEFORE DAWN. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING              
THE DAY...FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ROANOKE AND LYH DURING              
THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENING IN DANVILLE.                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 909 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH                     
PRECIP STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD               
FRONT AND TEMPS RATHER MILD. 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST STILL SOME MID                   
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE RH A               
BIT DEEPER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT/THETA-E RIDGE PER MSAS.              
LATEST WRF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOBE OF PRECIP PERSISTING WEST OF             
THE BLUE RIDGE THRU MORNING PER WEAK LIFT...WHILE THE NAM INDICATES             
THE CURRENT BAND WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT UPON HITTING EASTERN DRY            
AIR. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN ZONES FOR SPOTTY             
-RA OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE IN 20/30 CHANCES OUT EAST WHERE SATURATION              
LOOKS IFFY. MAY ALSO RAISE LOWS A NOTCH IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE            
WEST GIVEN CLOUDS/SLOWER FROPA AND LOWER EAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE            
AIDED EARLY RAD COOLING. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CLEANUP TO REMOVE                  
EVENING/MIDNIGHT WORDING.                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 629 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY PUSHING AXIS OF DEEPER                
MOISTURE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SPOTTY -RA NEARING THE SE WVA                   
SITES. HOWEVER AIR REMAINS QUITE DRY EAST OF THIS AREA AND IFFY                 
AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES. FOR NOW                 
WILL GO WITH LOWERING OF CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR AT                    
BLF/LWB AFTER MIDNIGHT AND VFR ELSW IN AC/CU OVERNIGHT. BEST                    
CHANCE AT VSBY REDUCTION IN -RA IN SE WVA WHERE WILL INCLUDE AN                 
EARLY TEMPO AND THEN PREVAILING MVFR TOWARD 12Z AS ACTUAL FRONT                 
DRIFTS ACROSS. MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT DEEPER MON GIVEN BETTER                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT ALTHO EXPANSE OF RAINFALL A                    
QUESTION PENDING FINAL FRONTAL LOCATION. MODELS SUGGEST WESTERN                 
SITES WITH THE BEST LIFT SO PLAN TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF HIGH END                
MVFR MOST SPOTS WITH OCNL IFR POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB IF PRECIP IS A                
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 318 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                    
BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE               
THIS AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE                
EAST TONIGHT AND CATCH UP TO THE SHOWERS...WITH BOTH ARRIVING IN THE            
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) AROUND 00Z. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE              
TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA AND GREENBRIER VALLEY OF SE WV              
WHERE BEST THETA-E RIDGE AND LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. RAIN WILL                    
STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING             
WESTERLY AS SEE ON VAD WIND PROFILE VIA KFCX RADAR AT 19Z UTC. THE              
AIRMASS STARTED OUT DRY THIS MORNING...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE               
ALREADY RISING...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT               
ARRIVES 850 MB DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND +8 WITH THE PRECIPITABLE               
WATER AROUND 1 INCH. ALSO WITH DEW POINTS ON THE                                
INCREASE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH AND WILL BE 15-20F              
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S                
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY LIKELY THE                   
COLDEST SPOT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR 40F.                                
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A             
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS CLOSE TO THE FRONT WILL BE            
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE                     
COMPONENT ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PLUS THERE IS               
SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K LAYER. SO WILL HOLD THE                 
CHANGE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST            
POPS NORTH OF ROANOKE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT                
LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT STEADY RAIN MONDAY AND INSITU WEDGE WILL                
BREAK EASILY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETREATS STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE             
NORTH. WITH WEAK WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL            
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY               
NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FOG            
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.                                                           
MID TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
MODELS NOW DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND                   
PHASING IT WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS                      
INTERACTION HAS SLOWED THE FRONTAL TIMING DOWN ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE               
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE WV AROUND 06Z WED...THEN TO THE            
BLUE RIDGE BY 12Z WED AND ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND 21Z WED. RAIN             
CHANCES LOOK VERY GOOD AND HAVE SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS FORWARD BY 6               
HOURS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE SHIFTED MOUNTAIN SNOW                  
SHOWERS AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.                                 
WITH ABOVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON              
TEMPERATURE WILL EASILY RUN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD               
FRONT TIMING SLOWING DOWN TO TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL            
BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH HIGHS DURING THE MORNING THEN REMAINING             
STEADY IN THE EAST AND FALLING IN THE WEST. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL             
TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.                  
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR THE WEEKEND.                 
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE                
OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW LIGHT                      
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD SCRAPE THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES              
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN VERY SLOWLY FROM THE WEST SO HAD DELAYED                  
ARRIVAL TIME UNTIL AFT 21Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR                
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AND BY THAT TIME                 
THERE IS MUCH MORE MOISTURE. NEAR THE FRONT EXPECT IFR TOP MVFR                 
CEILINGS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1045 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
ONE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS GREENBRIER              
AND THE HIGHLANDS OF VA WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA SOON. NEXT            
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS MOVING UP INTO THE TN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.             
THIS SHOULD BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS NORTHEASTWARD INTO EXTREME SW              
VA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE               
BULK OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WE            
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS TO NEED A                 
LIKELY PROBABILITY OF PRECIP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CARRY             
ON INTO THIS EVENING...SO I ALSO ADJUSTED THE PRECIP PROBABILITIES              
INTO THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST             
VIRGINIA AND THE VA HIGHLANDS...AND WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS TO THE                
SOUTH WE WILL SEE A LOT MORE HEATING THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST                     
INDICATED. HAD TO RAISE MAX TEMPS NEARLY 5 DEGREES ACROS SOUTHERN               
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH SIDE VA AND NW PIEDMONT OF NC. FOR THE                
SAME REASON...FRONT STALLING FURTHER NORTH...I LOWERED THE PRECIP               
PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND NW NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 640 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
FRONTAL ZONE ENTERING AND STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES                       
WILL BRING SCTD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BLF/LWB AREA TODAY AND                    
TONIGHT. SMALLER CHANCES OF RAIN THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MVFR                  
CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT BLF/LWB WITH SOME IFR                   
EARLY AT LWB. MOSTLY VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN UNTIL LATE TODAY AS LIGHT               
SE FLOW INCREASES. MAINLY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTR                
INCREASES. BLF MAY REMAIN MVFR TNGT UNDER SE FLOW.                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WV ERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE            
TENN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST EARLY            
TODAY...STALLING HALFWAY ACROSS VIRGINIA...AND INTO FAR SW VIRGINIA.            
BEST LIFT IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE TN VLY...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE              
CENTRAL APPS...AS WEAK WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO PA. LOOKING AT                 
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MILD THIS                     
MORNING...AND WANT TAKE TOO MUCH TO WARM INTO THE 60S...SO GOING                
JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS...ESPECIALLY IN MY SERN CWA...WHERE               
INFLUENCE OF PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS.                                    
TONIGHT...LEANING MORE TOWARD GFS....AS STRONG SW FLOW WILL SHIFT               
THE FRONT WELL NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO PA. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER               
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ARRIVING IN THE CENTRAL APPS OVERNIGHT...SO                 
KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE WV INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS.                    
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL.                             
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
TUESDAY WE'LL SEE THE WARM FRONT MOVE FURTHER NORTH THRU THE MID                
ATLANTIC REGION LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF               
STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS THIS                
PD WILL SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PCPN COVERAGE. COLD FRONT BEING               
DRIVEN BY STRONG VORT CENTER TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z WED.                 
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR                  
COULD CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT                          
DEVELOP...HOWEVER INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. STILL               
WILL SEE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT               
AND WED MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE                    
STRONG GOING FROM +10C WED AT 12Z TO -8C 06Z THU. LKG AT PRESSURE               
RISES AND 850 WIND SPEEDS BEHIND FRONT DO NOT THINK ADVISORY WINDS              
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE SOME PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ON               
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL LIGHT ACCUMS.                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1239 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. APPEARS              
BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING                 
THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIFT WILL BRING LIGHT              
RAINFALL INTO THE ROANOKE AND LYH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE              
DANVILLE STAYS IN A DRIER REGIME...AS BATCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TO                 
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...NORTHEAST INTO NRN                 
VIRGINIA. SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME                
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT DANVILLE BEFORE DAWN. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING              
THE DAY...FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ROANOKE AND LYH DURING              
THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENING IN DANVILLE.                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 909 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH                     
PRECIP STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD               
FRONT AND TEMPS RATHER MILD. 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST STILL SOME MID                   
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE RH A               
BIT DEEPER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT/THETA-E RIDGE PER MSAS.              
LATEST WRF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOBE OF PRECIP PERSISTING WEST OF             
THE BLUE RIDGE THRU MORNING PER WEAK LIFT...WHILE THE NAM INDICATES             
THE CURRENT BAND WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT UPON HITTING EASTERN DRY            
AIR. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN ZONES FOR SPOTTY             
-RA OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE IN 20/30 CHANCES OUT EAST WHERE SATURATION              
LOOKS IFFY. MAY ALSO RAISE LOWS A NOTCH IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE            
WEST GIVEN CLOUDS/SLOWER FROPA AND LOWER EAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE            
AIDED EARLY RAD COOLING. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CLEANUP TO REMOVE                  
EVENING/MIDNIGHT WORDING.                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 629 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY PUSHING AXIS OF DEEPER                
MOISTURE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SPOTTY -RA NEARING THE SE WVA                   
SITES. HOWEVER AIR REMAINS QUITE DRY EAST OF THIS AREA AND IFFY                 
AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES. FOR NOW                 
WILL GO WITH LOWERING OF CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR AT                    
BLF/LWB AFTER MIDNIGHT AND VFR ELSW IN AC/CU OVERNIGHT. BEST                    
CHANCE AT VSBY REDUCTION IN -RA IN SE WVA WHERE WILL INCLUDE AN                 
EARLY TEMPO AND THEN PREVAILING MVFR TOWARD 12Z AS ACTUAL FRONT                 
DRIFTS ACROSS. MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT DEEPER MON GIVEN BETTER                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT ALTHO EXPANSE OF RAINFALL A                    
QUESTION PENDING FINAL FRONTAL LOCATION. MODELS SUGGEST WESTERN                 
SITES WITH THE BEST LIFT SO PLAN TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF HIGH END                
MVFR MOST SPOTS WITH OCNL IFR POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB IF PRECIP IS A                
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 318 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                    
BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE               
THIS AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE                
EAST TONIGHT AND CATCH UP TO THE SHOWERS...WITH BOTH ARRIVING IN THE            
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) AROUND 00Z. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE              
TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA AND GREENBRIER VALLEY OF SE WV              
WHERE BEST THETA-E RIDGE AND LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. RAIN WILL                    
STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING             
WESTERLY AS SEE ON VAD WIND PROFILE VIA KFCX RADAR AT 19Z UTC. THE              
AIRMASS STARTED OUT DRY THIS MORNING...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE               
ALREADY RISING...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT               
ARRIVES 850 MB DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND +8 WITH THE PRECIPITABLE               
WATER AROUND 1 INCH. ALSO WITH DEW POINTS ON THE                                
INCREASE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH AND WILL BE 15-20F              
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S                
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY LIKELY THE                   
COLDEST SPOT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR 40F.                                
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A             
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS CLOSE TO THE FRONT WILL BE            
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE                     
COMPONENT ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PLUS THERE IS               
SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K LAYER. SO WILL HOLD THE                 
CHANGE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST            
POPS NORTH OF ROANOKE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT                
LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT STEADY RAIN MONDAY AND INSITU WEDGE WILL                
BREAK EASILY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETREATS STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE             
NORTH. WITH WEAK WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL            
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY               
NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FOG            
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.                                                           
MID TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
MODELS NOW DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND                   
PHASING IT WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS                      
INTERACTION HAS SLOWED THE FRONTAL TIMING DOWN ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE               
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE WV AROUND 06Z WED...THEN TO THE            
BLUE RIDGE BY 12Z WED AND ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND 21Z WED. RAIN             
CHANCES LOOK VERY GOOD AND HAVE SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS FORWARD BY 6               
HOURS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE SHIFTED MOUNTAIN SNOW                  
SHOWERS AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.                                 
WITH ABOVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON              
TEMPERATURE WILL EASILY RUN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD               
FRONT TIMING SLOWING DOWN TO TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL            
BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH HIGHS DURING THE MORNING THEN REMAINING             
STEADY IN THE EAST AND FALLING IN THE WEST. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL             
TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.                  
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR THE WEEKEND.                 
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE                
OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW LIGHT                      
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD SCRAPE THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES              
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN VERY SLOWLY FROM THE WEST SO HAD DELAYED                  
ARRIVAL TIME UNTIL AFT 21Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR                
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AND BY THAT TIME                 
THERE IS MUCH MORE MOISTURE. NEAR THE FRONT EXPECT IFR TOP MVFR                 
CEILINGS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
640 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FRONTAL ZONE ENTERING AND STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES                       
WILL BRING SCTD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BLF/LWB AREA TODAY AND                    
TONIGHT. SMALLER CHANCES OF RAIN THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MVFR                  
CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT BLF/LWB WITH SOME IFR                   
EARLY AT LWB. MOSTLY VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN UNTIL LATE TODAY AS LIGHT               
SE FLOW INCREASES. MAINLY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTR                
INCREASES. BLF MAY REMAIN MVFR TNGT UNDER SE FLOW.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WV ERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE            
TENN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST EARLY            
TODAY...STALLING HALFWAY ACROSS VIRGINIA...AND INTO FAR SW VIRGINIA.            
BEST LIFT IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE TN VLY...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE              
CENTRAL APPS...AS WEAK WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO PA. LOOKING AT                 
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MILD THIS                     
MORNING...AND WANT TAKE TOO MUCH TO WARM INTO THE 60S...SO GOING                
JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS...ESPECIALLY IN MY SERN CWA...WHERE               
INFLUENCE OF PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS.                                    
TONIGHT...LEANING MORE TOWARD GFS....AS STRONG SW FLOW WILL SHIFT               
THE FRONT WELL NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO PA. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER               
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ARRIVING IN THE CENTRAL APPS OVERNIGHT...SO                 
KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE WV INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS.                    
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL.                             
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
TUESDAY WE'LL SEE THE WARM FRONT MOVE FURTHER NORTH THRU THE MID                
ATLANTIC REGION LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF               
STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS THIS                
PD WILL SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PCPN COVERAGE. COLD FRONT BEING               
DRIVEN BY STRONG VORT CENTER TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z WED.                 
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR                  
COULD CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT                          
DEVELOP...HOWEVER INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. STILL               
WILL SEE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT               
AND WED MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE                    
STRONG GOING FROM +10C WED AT 12Z TO -8C 06Z THU. LKG AT PRESSURE               
RISES AND 850 WIND SPEEDS BEHIND FRONT DO NOT THINK ADVISORY WINDS              
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE SOME PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ON               
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL LIGHT ACCUMS.                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1239 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. APPEARS              
BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING                 
THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIFT WILL BRING LIGHT              
RAINFALL INTO THE ROANOKE AND LYH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE              
DANVILLE STAYS IN A DRIER REGIME...AS BATCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TO                 
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...NORTHEAST INTO NRN VIRGINIA.       
SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT FOG                
POSSIBLE AT DANVILLE BEFORE DAWN. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE                    
DAY...FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ROANOKE AND LYH DURING THE              
AFTERNOON...AND EVENING IN DANVILLE.                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 909 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH                     
PRECIP STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD               
FRONT AND TEMPS RATHER MILD. 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST STILL SOME MID                   
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE RH A               
BIT DEEPER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT/THETA-E RIDGE PER MSAS.              
LATEST WRF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOBE OF PRECIP PERSISTING WEST                
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THRU MORNING PER WEAK LIFT...WHILE THE NAM INDICATES          
THE CURRENT BAND WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT UPON HITTING EASTERN                
DRY AIR. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN ZONES FOR                
SPOTTY -RA OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE IN 20/30 CHANCES OUT EAST WHERE                  
SATURATION LOOKS IFFY. MAY ALSO RAISE LOWS A NOTCH IN SOME                      
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CLOUDS/SLOWER FROPA AND LOWER EAST              
WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE AIDED EARLY RAD COOLING. OTHERWISE JUST                  
SOME CLEANUP TO REMOVE EVENING/MIDNIGHT WORDING.                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 629 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY PUSHING AXIS OF DEEPER                
MOISTURE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SPOTTY -RA NEARING THE SE WVA                   
SITES. HOWEVER AIR REMAINS QUITE DRY EAST OF THIS AREA AND IFFY                 
AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES. FOR NOW                 
WILL GO WITH LOWERING OF CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR AT                    
BLF/LWB AFTER MIDNIGHT AND VFR ELSW IN AC/CU OVERNIGHT. BEST                    
CHANCE AT VSBY REDUCTION IN -RA IN SE WVA WHERE WILL INCLUDE AN                 
EARLY TEMPO AND THEN PREVAILING MVFR TOWARD 12Z AS ACTUAL FRONT                 
DRIFTS ACROSS. MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT DEEPER MON GIVEN BETTER                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT ALTHO EXPANSE OF RAINFALL A                    
QUESTION PENDING FINAL FRONTAL LOCATION. MODELS SUGGEST WESTERN                 
SITES WITH THE BEST LIFT SO PLAN TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF HIGH END                
MVFR MOST SPOTS WITH OCNL IFR POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB IF PRECIP IS A                
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 318 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                    
BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE               
THIS AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE                
EAST TONIGHT AND CATCH UP TO THE SHOWERS...WITH BOTH ARRIVING IN THE            
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) AROUND 00Z. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE              
TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA AND GREENBRIER VALLEY OF SE WV              
WHERE BEST THETA-E RIDGE AND LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. RAIN WILL                    
STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING             
WESTERLY AS SEE ON VAD WIND PROFILE VIA KFCX RADAR AT 19Z UTC. THE              
AIRMASS STARTED OUT DRY THIS MORNING...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE               
ALREADY RISING...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT               
ARRIVES 850 MB DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND +8 WITH THE PRECIPITABLE               
WATER AROUND 1 INCH. ALSO WITH DEW POINTS ON THE                                
INCREASE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH AND WILL BE 15-20F              
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S                
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY LIKELY THE                   
COLDEST SPOT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR 40F.                                
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A             
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS CLOSE TO THE FRONT WILL BE            
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE                     
COMPONENT ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PLUS THERE IS               
SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K LAYER. SO WILL HOLD THE                 
CHANGE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST            
POPS NORTH OF ROANOKE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT                
LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT STEADY RAIN MONDAY AND INSITU WEDGE WILL                
BREAK EASILY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETREATS STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE             
NORTH. WITH WEAK WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL            
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY               
NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FOG            
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.                                                           
MID TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
MODELS NOW DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND                   
PHASING IT WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS                      
INTERACTION HAS SLOWED THE FRONTAL TIMING DOWN ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE               
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE WV AROUND 06Z WED...THEN TO THE            
BLUE RIDGE BY 12Z WED AND ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND 21Z WED. RAIN             
CHANCES LOOK VERY GOOD AND HAVE SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS FORWARD BY 6               
HOURS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE SHIFTED MOUNTAIN SNOW                  
SHOWERS AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.                                 
WITH ABOVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON              
TEMPERATURE WILL EASILY RUN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD               
FRONT TIMING SLOWING DOWN TO TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL            
BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH HIGHS DURING THE MORNING THEN REMAINING             
STEADY IN THE EAST AND FALLING IN THE WEST. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL             
TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.                  
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR THE WEEKEND.                 
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE                
OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW LIGHT                      
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD SCRAPE THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES              
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN VERY SLOWLY FROM THE WEST SO HAD DELAYED                  
ARRIVAL TIME UNTIL AFT 21Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR                
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AND BY THAT TIME                 
THERE IS MUCH MORE MOISTURE. NEAR THE FRONT EXPECT IFR TOP MVFR                 
CEILINGS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
251 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
EVERY POSSIBLE PLAYER HAS MADE IT ONTO THE FORECAST PLAYING FIELD               
FOR THE STORM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                 
AFTERNOON.  AS FORECAST...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING IN THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND AS OF 2 AM...A LOW IS NOW CENTERED                
OVER PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA. AMPLE AMOUNTS OF COLD AIR AND VERY MOIST              
AIR ARE RAPIDLY PULLING INTO THIS SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS                       
POSITIONED EAST FROM THE LOW TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SHOULD BE               
THE PRIMARY PATH OF THE LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.   COLD AIR              
IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS...MODERATE TO            
HEAVY DRIZZLE...AND NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. LOW LEVELS ARE             
SATURATED...AND FOG IS DEVELOPING. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG             
ADVISORY THIS MORNING...SHOULD IT THICKEN MUCH MORE.                            
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                        
FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY RAINFALL EARLY                      
TODAY...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI. LIFT WILL BE                 
MAXIMIZED FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...AS THE BULK OF THE             
RAINFALL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  A DRY SLOT MAY STILL IMPACT AREAS              
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE QUAD CITIES...OR GENERALLY THE ILLINOIS              
COUNTIES. THIS MAY SEVERELY LIMIT PCPN AMOUNT THERE FOR THIS EVENT              
SHOULD IT OCCUR.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF LIFT...100                   
PERCENT POPS ARE WARRANTED TODAY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME                 
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS...TOWARD THE               
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS...HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS SHIFTED WEST!!  THE 06Z               
RUC HAS ALSO SHIFTED WEST.  THIS IS VERY DISTURBING AS ANY SHIFT TO             
THE WEST WILL KEEP OUR AREAS PRIMARILY IN RAIN AND NOT SIGNIFICANT              
SNOW.  THAT SAID...06Z RUNS RARELY OVERWHELM GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AT            
00Z WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA.                                   
VERY COLD AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING                
AROUND 3 PM IN THE WEST.  A QUICK CHANGE OVER SHOULD OCCUR AS MODEL             
SOUNDING DROP BELOW FREEZING FROM TOP TO BOTTOM DURING THE                      
CHANGEOVER PERIOD. CHANGE TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE CEDAR                 
RAPIDS AREA AROUND 4 TO 6 PM...AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER                  
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM...INCLUDING SOUTHERN AREAS. CENTRAL ILLINOIS                 
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK TRANSITION AROUND 8 PM.  THE                   
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW            
ALONG AND WEST OF SIGOURNEY...TO DUBUQUE.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT              
IN SNOWFALL FROM 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES. FARTHER EAST...SNOWFALL OF A            
HALF TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS FORECAST DOWN TO FAIRFIELD TO THE QUAD              
CITIES AND FREEPORT.  SOUTHEAST OF THIS...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE                
FORECAST. WIND WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT            
OVER THE AREA...AND SHOULD REACH AND EXCEED 30 MPH SUSTAINED IN MOST            
AREAS BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM...GUST MAY REACH 45 TO 50.  WHERE SNOWFALL             
IS ACCUMULATING...BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING            
CONDITIONS...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS              
RISK.  FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY               
CONDITIONS...THOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OR INTERMITTENT PERIODS MAY SEE              
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS FAIRFIELD TO THE QUAD                 
CITIES...TO FREEPORT. WILL MENTION THIS RISK IN THE WIND ADVISORY               
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THESE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TIL AROUND              
MID DAY WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR TRAVEL                   
HAZARDS.                                                                        
TEMPS WILL CRASH INTO THE 20S TONIGHT...AND ONLY RETURN SLIGHTLY                
INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS                
WILL BE FOUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING              
TO A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE.                                                       
...ERVIN...                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                  
SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING             
CLOUDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...                  
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MANY SHORTWAVES IN               
THE FLOW. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY                  
MORNING. FORCING QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD SEE             
SOME TYPE OF PRECIP OCCUR. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE              
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.                    
DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL ONE BELIEVES...THIS SYSTEM MAY LINGER INTO              
SUNDAY...OR ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE            
ANY CHANGES TO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.    ...08...                       
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A SIGOURNEY...TO            
DUBUQUE LINE FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO NOON WEDNESDAY.  WIND ADVISORY FOR            
ALL OTHER IOWA COUNTIES FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 2 PM WEDNESDAY.                    
IL...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES 6 PM TONIGHT TO 2 PM WEDNESDAY.             
MO...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES 6 PM TONIGHT TO 2 PM WEDNESDAY.             
$$                                                                              
ERVIN/08                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
328 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS THE WIND. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND                   
PROFILERS SHOWING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO               
EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN                  
AND/OR LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE                 
WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DDC CWA WITH PRECIP COMING TO AN END                 
OVER EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO IN THE FACE OF                 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS                   
MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EXTREME              
EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN FROM 12Z-15Z. MAY                
TOTALLY REMOVE POPS BEFORE FORECAST ISSUANCE IF RADAR TRENDS                    
CONTINUE AS THEY ARE. STRATUS DECK HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA                
ATTM AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS FROM               
THE NAM, THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO                  
EAST THIS MORNING WITH ALL AREAS EITHER SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY BY               
MIDDAY.                                                                         
WINDS HAVE REACH WARNING CRITERIA AT KLBL AND ARE APPROACHING AT                
KHQG WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. THE 850              
MB WIND PROGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE 50KT WINDS OVER THE                 
AREA MAINLY FROM 12Z-15Z AND THEN SETTLING DOWN TO AROUND 40KTS                 
THEREAFTER. THE RUC40 IS COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH 50KT                  
WINDS THROUGH 18Z. HAD ENTERTAINED THE IDEA OF DOWNGRADING THE                  
WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY BUT EVEN IF WE DON'T HAVE WIDESPREAD                 
WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH, THINK THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WIND               
SPEEDS AT 40 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY THROUGH                 
THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTACT.                  
THINK THE WINDS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY MID                    
AFTERNOON WHEN THE WARNING EXPIRES.                                             
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON TODAYS              
HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING THROUGH 850                 
MB. WITH FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 0C AT KEHA TO -5                
AT KHYS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE                
NORTH TO NEAR 45 IN THE SOUTHEAST.                                              
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE LATEST                 
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT AS IS.                                
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE UPPER AIR                  
PATTERN THRU 7 DAYS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG                     
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.              
THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN IS STILL ADVERTISED             
ALTHOUGH DELAYED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN               
THE 50S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE               
LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEXT TO NIL            
IN THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE GOING GRIDS HAD THIS LAID OUT WELL SO            
OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NO CHANGES WERE MADE.                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  42  16  46  23 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK  40  15  47  21 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  41  16  50  23 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  42  17  49  22 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  39  17  43  22 /  20   0   0   0                                           
P28  44  20  45  26 /  10   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
KSZ030-KSZ031-KSZ043-KSZ044-KSZ045-KSZ046-KSZ061-KSZ062-KSZ063-                 
KSZ064-KSZ065-KSZ066-KSZ074-KSZ075-KSZ076-KSZ077-KSZ078-KSZ079-                 
KSZ080-KSZ081-KSZ084-KSZ085-KSZ086-KSZ087-KSZ088-KSZ089-KSZ090.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GERARD/LACY                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
210 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
...ACTIVE WX NEXT 24 HOURS: HVY RAIN THIS MORNING AND WIDESPREAD SVR            
WX THIS AFTN/EVE...                                                             
.SHORT TERM (TODAY...TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY)...                                    
FOLLOWING RUC/NAM DATA FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FCST. BAND OF MAINLY             
ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN ASSOC            
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO IN/OH. HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER             
SRN IND WITH TRAINING CELLS. MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY IS BELOW                  
20KFT...SUGGESTIVE OF TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SMALL HAIL...CONFIRMED BY            
SPOTTER REPORTS. SOME SPOTS IN SRN IND MAY PICK UP 3-4 INCHES OF                
RAIN...HIGHER AMTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HPC HAS PUT THIS AREA IN            
A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS...SO WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR                  
FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS. DRY                   
ANTECEDENT GROUND MAY HELP DELAY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT               
THE BAND OF RAIN STRETCHES BACK ALL THE WAY TO SE MO...SO HAVE                  
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 9 AM EST FOR SRN IND AND KY COUNTIES               
ALONG OHIO RIVER.                                                               
WITH INCREASING LLJ...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS...            
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN ADVECT NWD INTO THE                
REGION. LAPS IS SHOWING THAT LI'S HAVE FINALLY GONE BELOW ZERO IN               
THE WARM SECTOR FROM SRN KY DOWN INTO WRN TN AS OF 06 UTC. SCT TSRA             
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THOSE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED             
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NAM BUFKIT HODOGRAPHS IN LOWEST 1KM AGL                
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS WITHIN WARM SECTOR. TORNADO              
WATCH #863 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 UTC.                                              
LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT WARM FRONTAL PCPN SHOULD LIFT NWD BY                  
AROUND DAYBREAK LEAVING CWA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH MAINLY            
SCT TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND             
HAS LIKELY ESTABLISHED A GOOD COLD POOL THAT MAY HELP ANCHOR PCPN               
WHERE IT IS NOW RATHER THAN LIFTING IT NWD. SO WILL CONTINUE                    
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG/NORTH OF AN OWB-FFT                  
LINE...WITH SCT-LIKELY POPS FOR REST OF CWA.                                    
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHARP UPPER TROF EJECTS OUT OF THE            
CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING NAM 700MB OMEGA              
FIELDS...LINEAR CONVECTION LOOKS TO ORGANIZE BY MID/LATE AFTN OVER              
MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD AT A QUICK RATE                 
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS USUALLY ARE TOO SLOW WITH                     
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY FORWARD                  
PROPAGATING LINEAR CONVECTION...SO WILL FACTOR IN ABOUT A 3 HOUR                
BIAS CORRECTION IN OUR FORECAST FOR SQUALL LINE PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD             
DAMAGING WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH THIS LINE...HIGHLIGHTED IN               
HWO. CWA IS IN A SPC DAY ONE "RISK GRADIENT" WITH A HIGH RISK WEST              
OF I-65...THEN A MODERATE RISK...THEN A SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR ERN                 
COUNTIES. SEE SPC OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.                           
AHEAD OF SQ LINE IN THE WARM SECTOR...DISCRETE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE               
THIS AFTN. THESE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL.                 
CURRENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF MEMPHIS DO SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING              
ABOUT 600MB...AND NAM IS SHOWING THOSE SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS AT 600MB             
ADVECTING NWD INTO CWA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN HOURS WHICH MAY AFFECT            
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THAT PERIOD. SOMETHING TO                 
WATCH...BUT IN THESE STRONG AUTUMN STORMS THE DYNAMICS CAN EASILY               
OVERCOME COMPARATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF THE               
FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL BE GUSTY (25KTS OR SO)...AND TEMPERATURES              
WILL GET FAIRLY WARM. FOLLOWING MAINLY RAW NAM12 NUMBERS TODAY...               
THOUGH MAY GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OVER CNTRL KY SINCE WE MAY              
SEE A FAIR AMT OF SUN THERE...EVIDENCED BY CLEAR SLOT NOW ON SAT PIX            
FROM WRN TN BACK DOWN INTO AR. CURRENT RECORD HIGHS SHOULD BE                   
SAFE...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO COME CLOSE.                               
AFTER SQ PASSAGE THIS EVENING...SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE FCST              
FOR A FEW HOURS...AS POST-FRONTAL WINDS GUST UP TO 25KTS AND                    
TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY. INTO WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW            
TO RISE (IF AT ALL)...ESP FROM SRN IND OVER INTO LOU/LEX ZONES WHERE            
CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT BASED ON NAM BUFKIT DATA. CS                     
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...                                          
DUE TO ONGOING WX...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM                  
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...EXCEPT TO ADD NEW DAY 7 GRIDS FOR THE NDFD.            
RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION CONTINUED                
BELOW. CS                                                                       
WED NIGHT THRU THU NGT...                                                       
AS NW FLO GOES ZONAL WED NGT/THU...PARTIAL CLEARING WILL LEAD TO SUB            
FRZG TEMPS WED AND THU NGT...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THIS            
AUTUMN.--DK                                                                     
FRI THRU MON...                                                                 
WE CONT IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR LVL PATTERN DURG THIS PD WITH A                 
SHRTWV TROF TO MOVE INTO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS FRI AND ANOTHER TROF                
SUN. PROGGED MSTR DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENUF TO INSERT POPS FOR                  
FRI...HOWEVER CDFNT ASCTD WITH SECOND TROF MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS             
LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. NCEP FAVORS A DRY WEEKEND BASED ON THE ECMWF             
WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM NCEPS ENSMEAN AND 06Z GFS. WILL STAY                     
CONSISTENT WITH ONGOING DRY FCST FOR NOW AND TEMPS AS WELL. --DK                
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST FOR COUNTIES ALONG OHIO RIVER.                  
     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST WEST OF A FT KNOX TO GLASGOW LINE.            
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST ALL COUNTIES.                                   
     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST BASICALLY HARRISON COUNTY WESTWARD.           
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
352 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
OVERALL FORECAST IS PRETTY EASY...WET AND WINDY...AS MAJOR STORM                
WRAPS UP TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...ARE               
VERY PROBLEMATIC. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE                 
WEATHER LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY             
OR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.                  
MODELS ALL BOMB OUT THE SURFACE LOW...BUT TRACKS/INTENSITIES VARY               
SIGNIFICANTLY. AS OF 08Z...GFS IS TOO WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE             
SURFACE LOW AND WILL DISCOUNT AS IT ENDS UP BEING THE EASTERNMOST               
SOLUTION AS LOW TRACKS THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO (AND WEAKER).              
GIVEN VERIFICATION IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...PREFER              
RUC13...WHICH IS LOCKED ON THE SURFACE LOW SO FAR. NAM IS NOT TOO               
FAR BEHIND IN ITS REPRESENTATION. THE DIFFERENCE -VS- GFS IS A MUCH             
STRONGER SURFACE LOW WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG/JUST WEST OF              
LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                                  
WITH THIS IDEA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE GREATER             
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM FRONT SHOULD RACE NORTH OF              
THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS             
THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE PARAMETER GIVEN THE SHEAR/DYNAMICS OF THE                 
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE                   
NORTHERN PORTION OF A RATHER AGGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE ON THE OCCLUDING            
COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. FOR FORECAST PURPOSES...RAIN WITH A              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL WORK AS            
ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY BY MID            
TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL THE TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE                
BASED CONVECTION ENSUES LATE IN THE DAY.                                        
AS FOR WINDS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO                
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST AND             
NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THIS PACKAGE. SETUP IS               
MARGINAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT (GUSTS OF 58+ MPH) SO OPTED TO FORGO             
THE HIGH WIND WATCH. DO EXPECT A SOLID ADVISORY (45+ MPH GUSTS) W/              
THE PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TIMING...DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A              
LOOK AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING AND 12Z                
RUNS OF MODELS TO DECIDE WHICH WAY TO GO. BASICALLY...THE CLOSE THE             
SOLUTION IS TO RUC13...THE CLOSER THE NORTHWEST CWA (I-69 NORTH AND             
ALONG/WEST OF I-75) IS TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THE TIMING &              
AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE COLD              
FRONT WILL MINIMIZE MIXING SOMEWHAT (PERHAPS KEEPING WINDS DOWN).               
ALSO...THE SYSTEM RACES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SO THE WINDOW FOR VERY             
STRONG WINDS IS LIMITED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.                 
ON A RELATED NOTE...WILL BE HOISTING A STORM WARNING FOR THE OPEN               
WATERS OF LAKE HURON...AS WELL AS OUTER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE THE                 
FUNNELING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MAXIMIZE. FROM HERE...INTO THE NORTH              
PART OF THE LAKE...EXPECT 55+ KNOT GUSTS PER RUC13/NAM SOLUTIONS.               
WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR INNER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE                 
WATERS...BUT WORD TO 45 KNOT GUSTS...JUST SHORT OF STORMS. EVEN                 
LESS TO THE SOUTH FOR LAKE ST CLAIR/WESTERN LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL               
GALES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
THE RUC13 WAS THUS FAR VERIFYING WELL AND FOLLOWED FOR WEDNESDAY.               
WITH A DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK...IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISE              
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY.  HOWEVER...AFTER               
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL HOLD OFF             
ON HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL WIND              
GUSTS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE                
CWA.  BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TAP INTO THE                 
50KTS BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND BEST PRESSURE RISE OCCURRING EARLY               
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIGHT NOT GET THERE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NOT                 
CHANGE MUCH AND ACTUALLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS              
BRINGS ABOUT THE TALKED ABOUT DEFORMATION AXIS AND SNOW FOR                     
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS FEATURE BUT             
SLOWER IN ARRIVING WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN THE LATE ARRIVAL AND ONLY              
IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA.  BUT COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN               
WILL GET THE LAKES ACTIVATED TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW                   
SHOWERS AND WE WILL TAPER BACK THE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.              
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE                   
GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH             
INTO CANADA.  SO OUR CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD.             
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 20S AND WITH THE WINDS EXPECT               
WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.                                 
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH LAKE AGGREGATE IN                
PLACE BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROGRESS                  
DURING THE DAY...SO SOME FLURRIES EARLY ON.  WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO              
THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE STATE...WE FIND IT HARD TO ACCEPT HIGH            
TEMPS MUCH ABOVE 35 (IF NOT 32!)...SO WE WILL UNDERCUT MACHINE                  
NUMBERS A FEW NOTCHES.  NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DIVING QUICKLY FROM THE            
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING TO              
BRING ABOUT FRIDAYS FORECAST.                                                   
MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO CALMED DOWN A BIT WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND                 
OVERALL SYNOPTIC INTENSITY.  WITH A NEARLY BELOW 0C SOUNDING...ALL              
PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW!  SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS MIGHT REMAIN              
ABOVE FREEZING SO IT STILL SEEMS ELEVATED SURFACES WILL STAND THE               
BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH              
INFLUENCE LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE TO THE QPF.                                   
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WE REMAIN IN THIS PROGRESSIVE COLD NORTHWEST            
FLOW REGIME WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR             
MORE PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EVEN HINTS             
OF A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC!                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1220 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005)                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LIGHT             
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME IFR REPORTS            
MIXED IN. WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH              
WILL SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...                    
AFFECTING DTW/DET OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH THROUGH MBS THIS                
AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL INCREASE IN CIGS BASED ON                 
UPSTREAM TRENDS YESTERDAY. SURFACE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA             
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD                  
PRECIP. FRONT WILL ALSO HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO              
CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL IMPROVE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT.                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN           
     TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.              
     STORM WARNING...LHZ421-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY           
     TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                                                         
     GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO               
     PORT HURON...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                         
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                    
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT                       
     WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444                 
     UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DG                                                                 
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
320 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENIG UPR TROF             
OVER THE WRN PLAINS WITH SVRL SGFNT SHRTWVS AND RIBBON OF H3 WINDS              
UP TO 150KT/H5 WINDS UP TO 100KT ON BACK SIDE OF TROF ADVECTING H5              
TEMPS AOB -35C S THRU MT HELPING TO INTENSIFY THIS FEATURE. THE MOST            
PRONOUNCED SHRTWV ALF IS LOCATED OVER ND...WITH ONLY WEAK INVERTED              
TROF AT THE SFC. SOME -RA/-SN OBSVD OVER MN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                
SYS. STRONGER SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING 100KT H5 WIND MAX IS PRESENT OVER             
THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH DVLPG SFC LO OVER NB. THIS SHRTWV BEGINNING            
TO INTERACT WITH GLFMEX MSTR RETURNING N (H85 DWPTS UP TO 11C/PWAT              
UP TO 1.20 INCH AS FAR N AS LIT AT 00Z) TO CAUSE OUTBREAK OF CNVCTN             
IN THE MID MS VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...FA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF              
SHRTWV RDG ACRS THE UPR UPR GRT LKS AND DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H65-7 AND            
INVRN AT H9 ON THE 00Z GRB/APX SDNGS. SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU THE              
CNTRL LKS HAS BRUSHED THE SE ZNS WITH THICKER MID CLD...BUT                     
ASSOCIATED PCPN REMAINS TO THE S. HOWEVER...SOME SC HAS DVLPD OVER              
PARTS OF THE CNTRL FA AT THE INVRN BASE AS NAM SHOWS MOISTENING ON              
THE 280K SFC (ARND H925) AS LLVL ESE FLOW ADVECTING SOMEWHAT HIER               
DWPTS OVER NRN LWR MI INTO THE U.P. UNDER THE INVRN.                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE NMRS AND INCLUDE PCPN TIMING/               
TYPE/AMTS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPR TROF TO THE W AND             
GOING HEADLINES.                                                                
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DVLPG SCENARIO WITH DEEPENING TROF               
OVER THE PLAINS GAINING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT AND FOCUSING                   
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CNTRL GRT LKS TNGT. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN                
GFS/NAM/CNDN/NGM SHOWING 998-999MB SFC LO NR CHI AT 00Z WED. SOME               
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AT F24 WITH GFS A BIT FARTHER E. GIVEN               
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS IN PLAY ATTM AS NOTED ABV AND LATENT HTG FM THE             
GRT LKS AGGREGATE/DVLPG CNVCTN IN THE MID MS VALLEY...PREFER THE                
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FARTHER W TRACK OF THE NAM/CNDN/NGM NNE UP LK MI            
AND OVER ERY INTO SE LK SUP BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z             
THU. SINCE NAM FVRD MODEL...USED ITS HIER RESOLUTION OUTPUT FOR FCST            
DETAILS. FA TO THE LEFT OF H5-7 LO TRACK FM CNTRL WI THRU THE CNTRL             
FA FM IMT TO MQT AND INTO CNTRL LK SUP TNGT WL BE IN FVRBL                      
DEFORMATION BAND AND UPSLOPE NE FLOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF SFC LO                 
TRACK. OTHER ENHANCEMENTS INCLUDE ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF             
SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA IN PRIME SN              
GROWTH LYR ARND H6...PRESENCE OF BAND OF NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT                    
POTENTIAL VORTICITY JUST ABV THE BEST FORCING INDICATING POTENTIAL              
FOR SLANTWISE/UPRIGHT CNVCTN ABV THE FA...4G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY               
AVBL ARND H7...AND LK ENHANCEMENT WITH SHARP CYC NNE FLOW IN THE                
PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS -6C TO -8C. GIVEN THESE FVRBL DYNAMICS...NAM/             
CNDN QPF ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES IN A BAND ACRS THE CNTRL              
FA FM THIS EVNG THRU WED...AND NCEP SN FCST GRAPHIC JUSTIFY UPGRADE             
OF GOING WATCH IN THE CNTRL ZNS TO A WRNG (EVEN WITH RATHER POOR                
SN/LIQUID RATIO OF 10:1) WITH SN FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1-2 INCHES              
AN HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HGT OF THE STORM BTWN 03Z-12Z WED.                  
EXPECT DRY SLOT/PCPN TYPE CONCERNS TO THE E OF IMT-MQT TO HOLD DOWN             
SN AMTS ENUF SO THAT NO HEADLINES NEEDED ATTM...ESPECIALLY SINCE                
STORM MAY END UP TRACKING A BIT FARTHER W DUE TO STRENGTH OF                    
DYNAMICS AND EVEN THOUGH DVLPG LES IN THE WAKE OF THE LO ON WED MAY             
OR MAY NOT REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR ALGER/LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT ONCE                
COLDER AIR (H85 TEMPS AOB -10C) POUR OVER LK SUP IN THE WAKE OF THE             
LO AND GENERATE LES ON WED.                                                     
AS FOR FCST DETAILS...EXPECT SGNFT PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TDAY             
WHEN NAM SHOWS INCRSG UPR DVGC/MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT             
AND MOISTENING ON THE 285K-295K SFCS AFT 21Z. PCPN TYPE WL BE A                 
CONCERN AT FIRST WITH SFC WBLB TEMPS AOA 32 EVEN RIGHT NOW. ALTHOUGH            
THICKENING CLDS TDAY WL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL RECOVERY IN TEMP...EXPECT             
AT LEAST A MIX WITH RA AT THE ONSET WITH DEPTH OF ABV FRZG LYR AOA              
1K FT EVEN AT IWD. BUT THEN UPSLOPE FLOW/DYNAMIC COOLING WITH PCPN              
INTENSITY INCRSG THIS EVENG WL COOL THE ATMOSPHERE ENUF TO CAUSE                
PCPN TO CHG TO ALL SN W OF MUNISING-MNM EARLY THIS EVNG.                        
ON WED...SYNOPTIC SCALE SN WL TRANSITION TO LES AS LO PRES/DYNAMICS             
EXIT TO THE NE. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS MAY EXIT...LINGERING BACKWASH             
MSTR IN STRG CYC NW FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO AND IN            
ADVANCE OF A SECOND SHRTWV DIGGING IN BEHIND THE MAIN SHRTWV MAY ACT            
AS A PSEUDO-LK ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM WITH COLD AIR POURING OVER THE             
LK (H85 TEMPS DOWN AS LO AS -16C BY LATE IN THE DAY PER NAM/ UKMET).            
LES CHART SUGS 1-3" LK ENHANCEMENT/6 HRS FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS.               
BEST CHC FOR GREATER ACCUMS UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 7 INCHES DURING THE             
DAY WL BE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES               
LATE IN THE DAY. ACRS THE E...GREATER SHSN CHCS WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL             
LATER IN THE MRNG WHEN THE WIND SHIFTS TO MORE NW. OTRW...NAM SHOWS             
50KT WINDS AS LO AS 3KT FT. AS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE LAST FEW                 
STORMS...THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WL NOT BE IN LINE WITH THE GRADIENT               
FLOW (IN FACT MORE PERPENDICULAR)...SO GOING HI GALE ON THE LK                  
APPEARS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A STORM WRNG EVEN THOUGH LLVL LAPSE               
RATES SHARPEN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. LES WL CONT WED NGT                   
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...BUT APRCH OF SFC RDG WL DIMINISH THE                    
ACTIVITY AFTR MIDNGT OVER THE W UNLESS SLOWER GFS VERIFIES.                     
COORDINATED WITH NCEP/GRB/DLH/ENVIRONMENT CAN.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
   WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MIZ001>005-009-084.                    
   WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MRNG MIZ010>011.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1220 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LIGHT             
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME IFR REPORTS            
MIXED IN. WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH              
WILL SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...                    
AFFECTING DTW/DET OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH THROUGH MBS THIS                
AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL INCREASE IN CIGS BASED ON                 
UPSTREAM TRENDS YESTERDAY. SURFACE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA             
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD                  
PRECIP. FRONT WILL ALSO HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO              
CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL IMPROVE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT.                              
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...1058 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                                           
PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SLOWLY                   
ERODING THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDOMINATELY            
VFR...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. MOST PRECIP REPORTS ARE OF                
10SM/-RA...ALTHOUGH DUH/TOL CAME IN AT 03Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITY.                
PRECIP TYPE STILL A CONCERN...AS 00Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL               
HAVE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2KFT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...             
03Z TAMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING TO THE NORTH FROM DTW SHOWS A NEARLY                 
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER BELOW 870MB...WITH DRY LAYER STILL AROUND               
800MB. THIS EARLY INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO                  
SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. HOWEVER HEAVIER PRECIP RETURNS HAVE               
LEAD TO A MIX WITH SOME GRAUPEL IN HOWELL AND WHITE LAKE. BASED ON              
EXPECTED DURATION BEFORE WARM ADVECTION PICKS UP FURTHER...WILL                 
HIGHLIGHT MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH SHORT-TERM FORECASTS. BACK             
EDGE OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR                
SOUTHWEST LOWER...WITH A TIMING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE                    
TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO 00Z RUC13/NAM DEPICTION...IN LINE WITH GOING               
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...414 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005                  
A RAINY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR SE LOWER MICHIGAN. DESPITE THE DRY AIR              
BELOW 700 MB...VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUCCESSFULLY                   
SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN AS IMPRESSIVE 850 TO 700 MB                          
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LIFTS NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.             
THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE 850 FRONT AND RIGHT                 
ALONG THE SLIGHTLY SPEEDIER 700 MB FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE               
APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION                
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY...THUS REMOVED SNOW WORDING INSTEAD TO GO             
WITH ALL RAIN. WITH GOOD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET OF                    
PRECIP...THE WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING HEIGHT BOTH LOWER TO AROUND             
2K FEET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. DON'T THINK THIS WILL BE QUITE GOOD                 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT 1000-850MB                   
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1300 METERS. IT COULD BE               
CLOSE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES                   
OBSERVED A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MIX OVERNIGHT...BUT WARM AIR                    
ADVECTION BEHIND 850 FRONT WON'T ALLOW THIS TO LAST VERY LONG. THUS             
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION SNOW TONIGHT.                                  
850 FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH BY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT REMAINS JUST             
SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...BUT A             
FULLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH SOME WEAK LIFT LINGERING COULD TAP OFF              
SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIOR TO THE SURFACE FRONT                   
LIFTING NORTH.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...414 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005           
OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED UPSTREAM HEIGHTS AND WIND               
FIELDS WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG                 
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO                   
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE                  
WEATHER TUESDAY EVENING... WITH STRONG WINDS USHERING VERY COLD AIR             
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                        
A 180KT UPPER JET CORE WAS SHOWN ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA ON THE 12Z             
UPPER AIR PLOTS. THIS JET WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH                    
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY                    
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT             
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 18Z TUES. THE GFS/UKMET/NAM                  
INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND EXTREME            
NW LOWER MI TUES NIGHT. THE WRFXX AND CANADIAN ARE JUST A LITTLE                
FARTHER WEST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TOWARD THAT OF A STRONGER             
SYSTEM AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE NORTHEASTWARD                   
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW. AT THIS TIME... LEANING TOWARD THE              
SLOWER AND STRONG NAM SOLUTION ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS               
POINT ARE MINOR.                                                                
A COUPLED UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW THE UPPER WAVE TO                
AMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY 06Z WED. THIS WILL              
ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO LAKE                   
MICHIGAN TUES EVENING. FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WITHIN THE 850-500MB                
LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SE MICHIGAN TUES AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED             
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SPELL CATEGORICAL PRECIP. THE SURFACE             
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BOTH NAM              
AND GFS SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET CORE AROUND 60KTS NOSING INTO SE                   
MICHIGAN...CREATING A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE WEATHER              
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO RELY HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE            
TO ADVECT INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE 12 AND 18Z NAM SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE               
ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG...WITH 925MB LIS AROUND 0C. NOT SURE IF THIS               
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE VERY STRONG SHEAR. IF BY             
CHANCE...A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO ADVECT INTO SE                    
MICHIGAN...THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SPC                
DAY2 OUTLOOK THUS CONTINUES TO HAVE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-69 IN A                
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH 50 TO 55KTS OF WIND DOWN TO 2K             
FT TUES EVENING THOUGH... EVEN WEAK CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO                   
TRANSPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.                                   
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TUES              
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE STRAITS REGION... DEEPENING TO                
AROUND 980MB. GOOD BURST OF SUBSIDENCE LATE WED NIGHT ALONG WITH A              
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING VERY                  
STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO            
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR              
ADVECTION. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN THE             
MIXED LAYER BY WED AFTERNOON... SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH END               
WIND ADVISORY EVENT OR PERHAPS ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT. WILL            
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.                                                      
SOME MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW ON WED.                
THIS COUPLED WITH FALLING 850MB TEMPS WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES. WITH 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO -14C BY 00Z THU IN                  
WISCONSIN... INSTABILITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE QUITE HIGH.                  
STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD EASILY BRING RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY            
INTO SE MICHIGAN WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... PERHAPS LEADING              
TO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WED EVENING.                                        
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS                  
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA...HELPING TO             
MAINTAIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AT LEAST INTO THE             
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE WAVE DROPPING             
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD             
ENOUGH TO WHERE LAKE EFFECT MAY BE ENHANCED DUE TO LIFT FROM THE                
SHORT WAVE. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS. A            
STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE              
GFS SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN COMPARISON TO THE EUROPEAN AND              
NOGAPS. SINCE ALL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER JET            
AROUND 150KTS... PREFER THE DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN.               
THIS SOLUTION ACTUALLY CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES               
BY SUNDAY. SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DEEPER SOLUTION... MAY SEE ENOUGH              
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE PRECIP               
TYPE TO RAIN. WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US... WILL            
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT                  
AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.            
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.              
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 10 PM              
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
AVIATION.....BRAVENDER                                                          
SHORT TERM...SHULER                                                             
LONG TERM....CONSIDINE                                                          
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
447 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STORM SYS TO MOVE UP INTO AND ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND               
TONITE. THIS SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA BY LATER ON             
WED. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON WED NITE AND THU.                          
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                  
00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M30S-M40S TODAY WITH E-SE           
SFC WINDS AT 5-15 KTS. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED             
ON THIS DATA. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TODAY. PW VALUES             
ACRS THE FA TODAY LOOK TO BE 0.2-1.1". RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE            
FA TODAY WITH RA/SN DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA FROM THE SOUTH...CHANGING            
OVER TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY TO MID THIS AFTERNOON.                                
H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...THEN CAA FOR WED           
THRU THU. GOOD LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY           
AND AGAIN EARLY ON WED. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA                   
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO            
BE HI ACRS THE FA LATE ON WED THRU THU. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT             
MUCH OF THE FA FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. GOOD H85-7 FGEN               
STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT THE FA FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND AGAIN LATER ON             
WED. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AROUND AN INCH TONITE AND ON              
WED...THEN AOB 0.5" ON WED NITE AND THU. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK             
TO AOB 100 J/KG ON WED.                                                         
LATEST NAM BUFR DATA THERMAL PROFILES LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR A              
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOLID/FREEZING PCPN ACRS THE FA (AND ESPECIALLY             
ACRS MUCH OF SRN VT) TODAY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...SIGNIFICANT PCPN            
NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE FA BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY. ALL PCPN            
STILL EXPECTED TO GO OVER TO ALL RAIN BY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN THAT            
WAY THRU WED EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE STEADY PCPN LATER             
TONITE. POSSIBLE SN AMTS ACRS THE FA TODAY STILL LOOK TO BE AOB 2".             
WILL LET THE GOING WINTER WX HEADLINES RIDE PRETTY MUCH AS IS. FEW              
TWEAKS TO P-TYPE/TIMING EARLY TODAY BASED ON LATEST THINKING FROM               
ABOVE. GOING POP DISTRIBUTION/TEMPS ACRS THE FA STILL LOOK PRETTY               
GOOD IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SFC WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE             
ACRS THE FA BY LATER TONITE THRU MUCH OF WED. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION            
OF THUNDER TO THE FCST FOR MUCH OF WED AND WED EVENING. LATER SHIFTS            
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONGER WINDS IN SOME +TSRA ON WED.                 
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...EXCEPT TO TWEAK WIND                   
DIRECTIONS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION ON THU. MORE UPSLOPE SN ON THU?               
WE/LL HAVE TO SEE. THERE/S PLENTY OF WX TO GET THROUGH BETWEEN NOW              
AND THEN.                                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A STRENGTHENING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WL MV N INTO THE GRT LAKES           
BY TNGT AND GET WRAPPED UP IN CANADA ON WED. XCLNT WAA PTRN AND                 
DYNAMICS WL ACCNT FOR GOOD OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN COLD...SHALLOW                
AIRMASS MEANING WINTRY MIX TO RAIN AS WELL AS LOW CIGS...LOW VSBY AND           
STG LLVL JET...MEANING DVLPG LLWS.                                              
VFR CONDS THRU 09Z THEN CIGS/VSBY DROP TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF PCPN               
BTWN 09-13Z ACRS TAF SITES. A 2-4 HR WINDOW OF SNPL AND RA BFR CHGOVR           
TO RAIN WITH IFR CONDS DVLPG WITH LIFR PSBL THRU REST OF FCST PERIOD.           
LLWS OF 40 KTS WL LKLY DVLP ARD 1.5-2K BTWN 06-09Z.                             
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NOTE: THIS IS THE LAST DAY OF THE 2005 SEASON FOR THE FWF/FWM. PER              
AN ERH MANDATE THOUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DO FIRE WX GFE GRAPHICS             
YEAR-ROUND.                                                                     
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
SOME MIXED PCPN EXPECTED ACRS THE FA EARLY TODAY (WITH AOB 0.5" OF              
LIQUID)...THEN EXPECTED QPF AFTER THAT (THRU 00Z THU) LOOKS TO BE               
ANOTHER 1-2" OF LIQUID POSSIBLE. THIS JIVES PRETTY WELL WITH THE                
LATEST NERFC QPS. EARLIER NERFC RUNS SHOWED NO REAL PROBLEMS ON ANY             
OF THE MAJOR RIVERS. MUCH OF THE EXPECTED QPF LOOKS TO BE CONVECTIVE            
AS WELL...SO IT SHOULDN/T NECESSARILY AFFECT ALL BASINS.                        
ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...                                     
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ011-012-019 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.             
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ001-002-005-009 UNTIL 1 PM                  
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018                 
     UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.                                                        
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087 UNTIL               
     NOON TUESDAY.                                                              
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ028-035 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY                   
AVIATION...SLW                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1100 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO START CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY FOR OUR                      
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PRECIP HAS LIFTED INTO DETROIT NORTH OF A                    
SURFACE WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHWESTERN              
MISSOURI. A STEADY RAIN HAS ENCOMPASSED THE DETROIT METRO AREA                  
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.              
METRO PICKED UP CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH JUST IN THE PAST 2                
HOURS. THE WARM FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY EDGE NORTH THROUGH THE                
DAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING.                
THERE STILL EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IT                  
WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE WE ARE ABLE TO GET BUT GIVEN                 
THE RAIN AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY               
IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. A BETTER SCENARIO ON SEVERE                     
WEATHER FOR US WOULD BE FOR ANY DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM                  
BEING ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LLJ                   
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AROUND SUNSET AND ANY CONVECTION                 
WOULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER A LOW            
LEVEL INVERSION...SETTING UP AROUND THAT TIME...MAY BE ENOUGH TO                
KEEP STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IF LOW LEVEL CAP                   
LOSES THE BATTLE...THEN VERY GOOD BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL                      
HELICITIES WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND                 
POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. WE WILL FURTHER EXAMINE THIS                  
THREAT THROUGH THE DAY AND ALSO LOOK CLOSER AT THE HIGH WIND                    
POTENTIAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 635 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005)                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
PLENTY OF PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST AS IFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY                
DZ/BR THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO MVFR AND RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND              
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING...TO JUST PLAIN               
OLD WINDS OVERNIGHT.                                                            
THIS ALL THANKS TO A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING TO THE                
WEST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO               
THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BY THIS                
EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY            
HAVE SOME RATHER STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CULMINATE IN A                
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MID/LATE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES              
THROUGH THE AREA. IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL                
TAPER OFF...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN...GUSTING TO 30+ KNOTS             
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST                           
OVERALL FORECAST IS PRETTY EASY...WET AND WINDY...AS MAJOR STORM                
WRAPS UP TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...ARE               
VERY PROBLEMATIC. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE                 
WEATHER LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY             
OR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.                  
MODELS ALL BOMB OUT THE SURFACE LOW...BUT TRACKS/INTENSITIES VARY               
SIGNIFICANTLY. AS OF 08Z...GFS IS TOO WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE             
SURFACE LOW AND WILL DISCOUNT AS IT ENDS UP BEING THE EASTERNMOST               
SOLUTION AS LOW TRACKS THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO (AND WEAKER).              
GIVEN VERIFICATION IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...PREFER              
RUC13...WHICH IS LOCKED ON THE SURFACE LOW SO FAR. NAM IS NOT TOO               
FAR BEHIND IN ITS REPRESENTATION. THE DIFFERENCE -VS- GFS IS A MUCH             
STRONGER SURFACE LOW WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG/JUST WEST OF              
LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                                  
WITH THIS IDEA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE GREATER             
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM FRONT SHOULD RACE NORTH OF              
THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS             
THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE PARAMETER GIVEN THE SHEAR/DYNAMICS OF THE                 
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE                   
NORTHERN PORTION OF A RATHER AGGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE ON THE OCCLUDING            
COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. FOR FORECAST PURPOSES...RAIN WITH A              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL WORK AS            
ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY BY MID            
TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL THE TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE                
BASED CONVECTION ENSUES LATE IN THE DAY.                                        
AS FOR WINDS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO                
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST AND             
NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THIS PACKAGE. SETUP IS               
MARGINAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT (GUSTS OF 58+ MPH) SO OPTED TO FORGO             
THE HIGH WIND WATCH. DO EXPECT A SOLID ADVISORY (45+ MPH GUSTS) W/              
THE PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TIMING...DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A              
LOOK AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING AND 12Z                
RUNS OF MODELS TO DECIDE WHICH WAY TO GO. BASICALLY...THE CLOSE THE             
SOLUTION IS TO RUC13...THE CLOSER THE NORTHWEST CWA (I-69 NORTH AND             
ALONG/WEST OF I-75) IS TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THE TIMING &              
AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE COLD              
FRONT WILL MINIMIZE MIXING SOMEWHAT (PERHAPS KEEPING WINDS DOWN).               
ALSO...THE SYSTEM RACES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SO THE WINDOW FOR VERY             
STRONG WINDS IS LIMITED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.                 
ON A RELATED NOTE...WILL BE HOISTING A STORM WARNING FOR THE OPEN               
WATERS OF LAKE HURON...AS WELL AS OUTER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE THE                 
FUNNELING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MAXIMIZE. FROM HERE...INTO THE NORTH              
PART OF THE LAKE...EXPECT 55+ KNOT GUSTS PER RUC13/NAM SOLUTIONS.               
WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR INNER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE                 
WATERS...BUT WORD TO 45 KNOT GUSTS...JUST SHORT OF STORMS. EVEN                 
LESS TO THE SOUTH FOR LAKE ST CLAIR/WESTERN LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL               
GALES.                                                                          
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST                     
THE RUC13 WAS THUS FAR VERIFYING WELL AND FOLLOWED FOR WEDNESDAY.               
WITH A DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK...IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISE              
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY.  HOWEVER...AFTER               
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL HOLD OFF             
ON HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL WIND              
GUSTS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE                
CWA.  BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TAP INTO THE                 
50KTS BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND BEST PRESSURE RISE OCCURRING EARLY               
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIGHT NOT GET THERE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NOT                 
CHANGE MUCH AND ACTUALLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS              
BRINGS ABOUT THE TALKED ABOUT DEFORMATION AXIS AND SNOW FOR                     
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS FEATURE BUT             
SLOWER IN ARRIVING WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN THE LATE ARRIVAL AND ONLY              
IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA.  BUT COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN               
WILL GET THE LAKES ACTIVATED TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW                   
SHOWERS AND WE WILL TAPER BACK THE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.              
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE                   
GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH             
INTO CANADA.  SO OUR CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD.             
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 20S AND WITH THE WINDS EXPECT               
WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.                                 
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH LAKE AGGREGATE IN                
PLACE BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROGRESS                  
DURING THE DAY...SO SOME FLURRIES EARLY ON.  WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO              
THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE STATE...WE FIND IT HARD TO ACCEPT HIGH            
TEMPS MUCH ABOVE 35 (IF NOT 32!)...SO WE WILL UNDERCUT MACHINE                  
NUMBERS A FEW NOTCHES.  NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DIVING QUICKLY FROM THE            
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING TO              
BRING ABOUT FRIDAYS FORECAST.                                                   
MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO CALMED DOWN A BIT WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND                 
OVERALL SYNOPTIC INTENSITY.  WITH A NEARLY BELOW 0C SOUNDING...ALL              
PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW!  SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS MIGHT REMAIN              
ABOVE FREEZING SO IT STILL SEEMS ELEVATED SURFACES WILL STAND THE               
BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH              
INFLUENCE LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE TO THE QPF.                                   
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WE REMAIN IN THIS PROGRESSIVE COLD NORTHWEST            
FLOW REGIME WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR             
MORE PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EVEN HINTS             
OF A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC!                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HU
     MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                                                        
     STORM WARNING...LHZ421-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY           
     TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                                                         
     GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...M
     TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                                                         
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                    
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDN
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...SHULER                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DG                                                                 
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
635 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PLENTY OF PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST AS IFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY                
DZ/BR THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO MVFR AND RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND              
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING...TO JUST PLAIN               
OLD WINDS OVERNIGHT.                                                            
THIS ALL THANKS TO A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING TO THE                
WEST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO               
THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BY THIS                
EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY            
HAVE SOME RATHER STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CULMINATE IN A                
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MID/LATE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES              
THROUGH THE AREA. IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL                
TAPER OFF...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN...GUSTING TO 30+ KNOTS             
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST                          
OVERALL FORECAST IS PRETTY EASY...WET AND WINDY...AS MAJOR STORM                
WRAPS UP TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...ARE               
VERY PROBLEMATIC. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE                 
WEATHER LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY             
OR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.                  
MODELS ALL BOMB OUT THE SURFACE LOW...BUT TRACKS/INTENSITIES VARY               
SIGNIFICANTLY. AS OF 08Z...GFS IS TOO WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE             
SURFACE LOW AND WILL DISCOUNT AS IT ENDS UP BEING THE EASTERNMOST               
SOLUTION AS LOW TRACKS THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO (AND WEAKER).              
GIVEN VERIFICATION IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...PREFER              
RUC13...WHICH IS LOCKED ON THE SURFACE LOW SO FAR. NAM IS NOT TOO               
FAR BEHIND IN ITS REPRESENTATION. THE DIFFERENCE -VS- GFS IS A MUCH             
STRONGER SURFACE LOW WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG/JUST WEST OF              
LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                                  
WITH THIS IDEA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE GREATER             
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM FRONT SHOULD RACE NORTH OF              
THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS             
THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE PARAMETER GIVEN THE SHEAR/DYNAMICS OF THE                 
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE                   
NORTHERN PORTION OF A RATHER AGGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE ON THE OCCLUDING            
COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. FOR FORECAST PURPOSES...RAIN WITH A              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL WORK AS            
ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY BY MID            
TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL THE TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE                
BASED CONVECTION ENSUES LATE IN THE DAY.                                        
AS FOR WINDS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO                
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST AND             
NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THIS PACKAGE. SETUP IS               
MARGINAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT (GUSTS OF 58+ MPH) SO OPTED TO FORGO             
THE HIGH WIND WATCH. DO EXPECT A SOLID ADVISORY (45+ MPH GUSTS) W/              
THE PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TIMING...DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A              
LOOK AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING AND 12Z                
RUNS OF MODELS TO DECIDE WHICH WAY TO GO. BASICALLY...THE CLOSE THE             
SOLUTION IS TO RUC13...THE CLOSER THE NORTHWEST CWA (I-69 NORTH AND             
ALONG/WEST OF I-75) IS TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THE TIMING &              
AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE COLD              
FRONT WILL MINIMIZE MIXING SOMEWHAT (PERHAPS KEEPING WINDS DOWN).               
ALSO...THE SYSTEM RACES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SO THE WINDOW FOR VERY             
STRONG WINDS IS LIMITED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.                 
ON A RELATED NOTE...WILL BE HOISTING A STORM WARNING FOR THE OPEN               
WATERS OF LAKE HURON...AS WELL AS OUTER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE THE                 
FUNNELING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MAXIMIZE. FROM HERE...INTO THE NORTH              
PART OF THE LAKE...EXPECT 55+ KNOT GUSTS PER RUC13/NAM SOLUTIONS.               
WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR INNER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE                 
WATERS...BUT WORD TO 45 KNOT GUSTS...JUST SHORT OF STORMS. EVEN                 
LESS TO THE SOUTH FOR LAKE ST CLAIR/WESTERN LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL               
GALES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST                    
THE RUC13 WAS THUS FAR VERIFYING WELL AND FOLLOWED FOR WEDNESDAY.               
WITH A DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK...IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISE              
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY.  HOWEVER...AFTER               
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL HOLD OFF             
ON HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL WIND              
GUSTS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE                
CWA.  BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TAP INTO THE                 
50KTS BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND BEST PRESSURE RISE OCCURRING EARLY               
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIGHT NOT GET THERE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NOT                 
CHANGE MUCH AND ACTUALLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS              
BRINGS ABOUT THE TALKED ABOUT DEFORMATION AXIS AND SNOW FOR                     
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS FEATURE BUT             
SLOWER IN ARRIVING WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN THE LATE ARRIVAL AND ONLY              
IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA.  BUT COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN               
WILL GET THE LAKES ACTIVATED TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW                   
SHOWERS AND WE WILL TAPER BACK THE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.              
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE                   
GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH             
INTO CANADA.  SO OUR CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD.             
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 20S AND WITH THE WINDS EXPECT               
WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.                                 
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH LAKE AGGREGATE IN                
PLACE BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROGRESS                  
DURING THE DAY...SO SOME FLURRIES EARLY ON.  WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO              
THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE STATE...WE FIND IT HARD TO ACCEPT HIGH            
TEMPS MUCH ABOVE 35 (IF NOT 32!)...SO WE WILL UNDERCUT MACHINE                  
NUMBERS A FEW NOTCHES.  NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DIVING QUICKLY FROM THE            
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING TO              
BRING ABOUT FRIDAYS FORECAST.                                                   
MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO CALMED DOWN A BIT WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND                 
OVERALL SYNOPTIC INTENSITY.  WITH A NEARLY BELOW 0C SOUNDING...ALL              
PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW!  SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS MIGHT REMAIN              
ABOVE FREEZING SO IT STILL SEEMS ELEVATED SURFACES WILL STAND THE               
BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH              
INFLUENCE LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE TO THE QPF.                                   
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WE REMAIN IN THIS PROGRESSIVE COLD NORTHWEST            
FLOW REGIME WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR             
MORE PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EVEN HINTS             
OF A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC!                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN           
     TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.              
     STORM WARNING...LHZ421-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY           
     TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                                                         
     GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO               
     PORT HURON...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                         
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM              
     WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT                    
     WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT                       
     WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444                 
     UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....DG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DG                                                                 
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
420 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WARM AND HUMID THIS MORNING AS                
CURRENT TEMPERATURES(IN THE LOWER 70S)CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE            
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LATEST WATER VAPOR            
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE                  
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DELTA. THIS AREA WAS ON THE LEFT                    
ENTRANCE(SUBSIDENCE REGION) OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK THAT WAS            
HELPING MIX DOWN FAIRLY BREEZY WINDS ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.                
THIS HAS RAISED CONCERNS ABOUT STRONGER WINDS LATER THIS MORNING IN             
ADVANCE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR                  
REGION LATER TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY TODAY                 
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND ACROSS TO GREENWOOD. HAVE            
ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY.                     
OVERALL LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING CONCERNING THE            
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THIS RUN              
CONSISTENCY HAS LED TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE              
WEATHER OUTBREAK IS ON TRACK FROM OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND                     
NORTHWARD. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE GREATEST RISK FOR            
SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...                   
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL            
WINDS/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL EXIST ABOVE               
VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE STILL EXPECT A SQUALL LINE WILL                
FORM ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON MOVE INTO OUR               
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES BY 6 PM. THE 06Z TUE JAN SOUNDING SHOWS             
NO CAP AND A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE                  
SUPERCELLS TODAY EVEN BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE                   
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY               
OCCUR OVER OUR AREA LATER TODAY ALLOWING OUR AIRMASS TO WARM AND                
DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS              
NEAR 80 DEGREES TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS                   
RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT...NEAR JACKSON BY MIDNIGHT AND NEAR              
THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. /22/                            
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE            
FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.  DESPITE THIS...THE MAIN             
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND A BIT.  THIS               
SHOULD KEEP THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER OUR AREA FOR A GOOD BIT              
OF THE DAY.  WHEN COMBINED WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...            
WE'LL PROBABLY SEE SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULI (LOW CLOUD NUMBER 4               
FOR ANYONE KEEPING TRACK) OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  WE              
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR THE SKIES OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR                 
EVENING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND LOWER RELATIVE                    
HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.                    
THEN THE NEXT CHAPTER IN THE WEATHER STORY BEGINS.  WITH NEARLY                 
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS...AND A DEEPENING              
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THURSDAY MORNING IS JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT             
COLD.  CONSIDERING THE FORECAST 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...A ROMP            
THROUGH OUR SOUNDING AND SURFACE OBSERVATION DATABASE SHOWS LOW                 
TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S.  FOR               
THESE REASONS...I THINK LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING COULD                 
FEASIBLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND I PLAN             
ON LEANING MORE TOWARD NGM MOS NUMBERS FOR THESE TEMPERATURES.  WITH            
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THURSDAY...WE MIGHT SEE A NICE REBOUND IN                
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.                
AS A SIDE NOTE ABOUT THURSDAY MORNING LOWS...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A             
FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR MANY SPOTS.  I WILL MENTION THIS              
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY                 
CONSIDER THIS PRODUCT.  FOR NOW...FIRST THING'S FIRST.  WE'VE GOT TO            
DEAL WITH THE REAL POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.                               
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD A COUPLE OF                   
REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIR POURING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI            
VALLEY IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST.  SHOT NUMBER 1 SHOULD              
MOVE INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES            
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST              
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY               
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND COULD PUSH ANOTHER "WEAK" FRONT (RELATIVELY             
SPEAKING OF COURSE) INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  AND ALTHOUGH IT'S OUT              
IN "VOODOO LAND"...NUMBER 3 COULD BOTHER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
I DON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ANY OF THESE                   
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SINCE IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT WE'LL               
GET MUCH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE PRIOR TO EACH SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL.                 
SIMPLY PUT...EACH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING THE                
HIGHLY AMPLITUDINAL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN IN THE                       
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MORAL OF THE STORY -- YOU MIGHT                
WANT TO KEEP THE COATS HANDY.  IT LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH DAY 7.                                        
THAT SAID...AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND 925 MB EXPECTED TO                 
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE                    
WEEKEND...I PLAN TO DROP FORECAST TEMPERATURES (BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS)            
SEVERAL DEGREES.                                                                
THANKS GOES OUT TO WFOS IN MEMPHIS...CALERA...SLIDELL...NORTH LITTLE            
ROCK...AND HUNTSVILLE FOR ALL OF THE COORDINATION AND COLLABORATION             
THIS MORNING.  /#10/                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12KTS THIS MORNING HAS THWARTED              
ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND                 
1500FT HAS RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY               
INCREASE ABOVE 3000FT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS                
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BY 16Z...GREATEST CONVECTIVE RISK                 
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FOR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES. /22/                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       81  44  52  26 /  60 100   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      80  46  52  27 /  60 100  10   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS                 
     EVENING FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ036-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-                     
     MSZ047.                                                                    
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS                 
     EVENING FOR MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ032-MSZ037-MSZ043-MSZ048-                     
     MSZ049-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061.                                 
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING              
     FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ034-MSZ035.                                    
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS                 
     EVENING FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-                     
     LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.                                                      
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING              
     FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22/10                                                                           
...CORRECTED TYPO IN PARAGRAPH 3...  BUTTS                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
951 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
ALL IN ALL GOING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS OK.  DO PLAN TO               
TWEAK POPS UP A TAD FOR NC COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO CURRENT                      
ACTIVITY.  RUC ALSO SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE                      
PERSISTING ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF            
THE AFTERNOON.  ELSEWHERE...PLAN TO LEAVE POPS AS IS.  FOG HAS                  
DIMINISHED ENOUGH THAT IT CAN BE REMOVED WITH THE UPDATE. WILL TWEAK            
TEMPERATURES AS NEEDED BASED ON NUMBERS NEARER 11 AM BUT MID 70S OR             
SO SEEMS REASONABLE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
BASED ON LAST COUPLE HOURS OF BUOY OBS AND COASTAL METARS...WINDS               
ARE STILL WAVERING A BIT BETWEEN SE AND S...BUT COMING UP TO A MORE             
SOLID 15 KT IN THE NC WATERS WHERE THERE IS DECENT COVERAGE OF                  
SHOWERS.  WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH...MAY NEED TO ALLOW             
FOR MORE OF A SE DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAKE A FINAL               
DETERMINATION ON INITIALIZATION TWEAKS AFTER I SEE THE 15Z OBS.                 
SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE LOOK GOOD.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 7 KTS AND SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER WILL DOMINATE              
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WINDS MAY DROP               
DOWN OVERNIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS.  BR MAY BE AN ISSUE            
THAT THE NEXT ISSUANCE CONSIDERS.  IT WAS TOO FAR OUT THIS MORNING              
TO MAKE A CALL ON THAT SO EARLY.  SHRA IS TOO SCATTERED TO EVEN                 
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS POINT.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL               
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 454 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                   
SHOWERS SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME                  
PATCHY FOG WELL INLAND. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS                
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. ON SHORE FLOW AROUND THIS AREA OF HIGH               
PRESSURE HAS ALREADY STEERED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SHORE AND THIS                
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS E. A DEEP S TO SW               
FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WED AND THIS WILL                   
RESULT IN MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS WELL AS DECREASING                   
STABILITY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. H8 WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT                 
WILL VEER AND INCREASE TO 50+ KT AT MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS                    
FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO MORE S...ESPECIALLY NEAR                 
THE COAST AS STRONG HEATING ALLOWS A RESULTANT SEABREEZE TO                     
DEVELOP. THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT IS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND                 
GUSTS AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. TIMING OF SUCH A                      
SCENARIO WILL COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING. EXPECT LINE OF                         
THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER W AROUND 19Z ON WED AND PUSH TO THE COAST                
BY EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED                             
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RESULTANT.                              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING               
AROUND 1/2 AN INCH OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.                                     
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE...DID UNDERCUT                     
SLIGHTLY ON WED...BUT NONETHELESS...WE ARE TALKING UNSEASONABLY                 
WARM NEXT TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS NOT FAR FROM 80 AWAY FROM THE                     
INFLUENCE OF THE COOL OCEAN WATERS.                                             
FRONT SHOULD BARREL THROUGH HERE ENDING THIS WARM STRETCH 03Z-07Z.              
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
COLDEST OF AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL LATE THU AND THU NIGHT WITH                  
PASSAGE OF H8 FRONT. LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY ON THU WITH COLD AIR                  
ADVECTION COUNTERING THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SUNSHINE. SHOULD                 
BE ABOUT 15 DEG COOLER ON THU THAN ON WED. TEMPS MAY FLIRT WITH                 
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE VIRTUALLY               
ON TOP OF US. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE                
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE                   
COAST ON SAT AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP TO OUR SE                  
SUN-SUN NIGHT AND THEN CLOSES OFF AS IT LIFTS TO NE ON MON. AT                  
THIS TIME NOT SURE HOW CLOSE THIS FEATURE WILL GET...BUT WITH                   
UPPER TROUGH STILL DIGGING TO OUR WEST...AT LEAST WENT WITH                     
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...HIGHEST E. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY                
SKIRT AT LEAST THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT AT THIS TIME...KEPT POPS                 
JUST BELOW THRESHOLD...WITH SHOWERS CONFINED TO COASTAL WATERS.                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SOME FOG IN THE AREA AND THAT IT             
IS IN FACT LOCALLY DENSE. CPC AND UDG HAVE HAD SOME SHORT LIVED                 
BOUTS OF LIFR (M1/4SM AND OVC001) AND ILM EVEN SLIPPED TO IFR VSBY A            
FEW TIMES. MID CLOUD DECK HAS MADE SATELLITE DIAGNOSIS OF THE FOG               
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. SO FAR GFS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL            
THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL IMPLY LITTLE MORE THAN MVFR AT ALL                     
TERMINALS THIS MORNING EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME IFR AT FLO. AGAIN               
THE LACK OF RELIABLE SAT INFO MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF                
LIFR CONDS AFFECT FLO. GFS IMPLIES VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                 
PERIOD WHILE THE NAM SEEMS OVERDONE WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.                     
MARINE...                                                                       
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS                 
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE            
WEST. OVERALL THOUGH THE DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY               
GRADUAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE            
WEDNESDAY AND COLD ADVECTION ENSUES THE WINDS MAY PICK UP AND BRING             
SEAS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A                  
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS A BIT LOW GIVEN THE STRENGTH            
OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THIS WNA GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY                    
CONSISTENT AND REASONABLE AND SO WAS FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY.                   
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...31                                                                 
MARINE...35                                                                     
AVIATION...49                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
430 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES TOO WARM HAVE GREATLY REDUCED SNOW                   
POTENTIAL. SURFACE TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF RED RIVER VALLEY ATTM                 
WHILE THE UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR THE NORTHCENTRAL ND BORDER. RADARS               
SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE) JUST                
EAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE SNOW IS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF               
THE UPPER LOW. THIS SNOW IS UNIMPRESSIVE BUT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS               
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BIT OF A DRY              
SLOT OVER MOST OF EASTERN ND.                                                   
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS                
OVER ND ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO              
CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THIS MORNING. CANNOT SEE A REASON THAT               
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE VERY MUCH AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ARE               
SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE KS/OK BORDER. THE UPPER               
JET HAS FINALLY CROSSED THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL MAKE            
THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...HAVE FAVORED              
THE SLOWER MOVING MODELS OVER ND/MN TODAY (RUC FIRST THEN NAM) AS               
THE GFS IS FILLING THE SURFACE TROUGH TOO QUICKLY. BUT THE NAME IS              
HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN MT WHICH MADE             
THE 00Z RUN HAVE A TOO STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (60 KNOTS) BY 00Z WED.              
THE 06Z NAM LOOKS BETTER AND ITS JET CAME DOWN TO 55. WINDY IN ANY              
CASE LATE TODAY. A LITTLE SNOW TODAY...ROADS BECOMING ICY AS THE                
WINDS PICK UP...AND WIND PICKING UP LOOSE SNOW BY EVENING. ENOUGH               
THERE TO ONLY DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO WINTER WEATHER              
ADVISORY AND NOT HAVE NO HEADLINES AT ALL.                                      
.LONGER TERM (WED ONWARD)...VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY THOUGH               
DIDN/T GET TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WARMING TREND            
THE 00Z MEX IS SHOWING LATER THIS WEEK. IT SHOWS MAXES REBOUNDING TO            
30S EVERYWHERE ACROSS CWA BY FRI. GRIDS WERE ALREADY SHOWING                    
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE...NOW THEY ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW.                          
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL MIDNIGHT CST FOR                               
     NDZ006-NDZ007-NDZ014-NDZ015-NDZ024.                                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 6 AM CST FOR NDZ008-NDZ016-NDZ026-             
     NDZ027-NDZ028-NDZ029-NDZ030-NDZ038-NDZ039-NDZ049-NDZ052-                   
     NDZ053-NDZ054.                                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR                       
     MNZ001-MNZ002-MNZ003-MNZ004-MNZ005-MNZ006-MNZ007-MNZ008-MNZ009-            
     MNZ013-MNZ014-MNZ015-MNZ016-MNZ017-MNZ022-MNZ023-MNZ024-MNZ027-            
     MNZ028-MNZ02 9-MNZ030-MNZ031-MNZ032-MNZ040.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1118 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
UPDATED ZONES SENT OUT. ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN                 
CANCELLED. TEMPS HAVE WARMED A BIT ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS. MIXED              
PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO JUST RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT RAIN               
TO BE MIXED WITH SNOW/SLEET THRU EARLY PM IN NE VT...AND PERHAPS                
ACRS EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF CHMPLN/ST LWR VLYS...BUT NO SNOW                   
ACCUM EXPECTED. REST OF FCST GENERALLY UNCHANGED. EXPECT HIGHS                  
MOSTLY IN UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL CONTINUE               
THIS PM/EVENING AS WRMFRNT GRDLY LIFTS NORTH INTO RGN.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 447 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005)                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
STORM SYS TO MOVE UP INTO AND ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND               
TONITE. THIS SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA BY LATER ON             
WED. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON WED NITE AND THU.                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                   
00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M30S-M40S TODAY WITH E-SE           
SFC WINDS AT 5-15 KTS. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED             
ON THIS DATA. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TODAY. PW VALUES             
ACRS THE FA TODAY LOOK TO BE 0.2-1.1". RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE            
FA TODAY WITH RA/SN DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA FROM THE SOUTH...CHANGING            
OVER TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY TO MID THIS AFTERNOON.                                
H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...THEN CAA FOR WED           
THRU THU. GOOD LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY           
AND AGAIN EARLY ON WED. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA                   
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO            
BE HI ACRS THE FA LATE ON WED THRU THU. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT             
MUCH OF THE FA FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. GOOD H85-7 FGEN               
STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT THE FA FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND AGAIN LATER ON             
WED. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AROUND AN INCH TONITE AND ON              
WED...THEN AOB 0.5" ON WED NITE AND THU. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK             
TO AOB 100 J/KG ON WED.                                                         
LATEST NAM BUFR DATA THERMAL PROFILES LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR A              
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOLID/FREEZING PCPN ACRS THE FA (AND ESPECIALLY             
ACRS MUCH OF SRN VT) TODAY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...SIGNIFICANT PCPN            
NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE FA BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY. ALL PCPN            
STILL EXPECTED TO GO OVER TO ALL RAIN BY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN THAT            
WAY THRU WED EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE STEADY PCPN LATER             
TONITE. POSSIBLE SN AMTS ACRS THE FA TODAY STILL LOOK TO BE AOB 2".             
WILL LET THE GOING WINTER WX HEADLINES RIDE PRETTY MUCH AS IS. FEW              
TWEAKS TO P-TYPE/TIMING EARLY TODAY BASED ON LATEST THINKING FROM               
ABOVE. GOING POP DISTRIBUTION/TEMPS ACRS THE FA STILL LOOK PRETTY               
GOOD IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SFC WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE             
ACRS THE FA BY LATER TONITE THRU MUCH OF WED. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION            
OF THUNDER TO THE FCST FOR MUCH OF WED AND WED EVENING. LATER SHIFTS            
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONGER WINDS IN SOME +TSRA ON WED.                 
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...EXCEPT TO TWEAK WIND                   
DIRECTIONS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION ON THU. MORE UPSLOPE SN ON THU?               
WE/LL HAVE TO SEE. THERE/S PLENTY OF WX TO GET THROUGH BETWEEN NOW              
AND THEN.                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
A STRENGTHENING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WL MV N INTO THE GRT LAKES           
BY TNGT AND GET WRAPPED UP IN CANADA ON WED. XCLNT WAA PTRN AND                 
DYNAMICS WL ACCNT FOR GOOD OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN COLD...SHALLOW                
AIRMASS MEANING WINTRY MIX TO RAIN AS WELL AS LOW CIGS...LOW VSBY AND           
STG LLVL JET...MEANING DVLPG LLWS.                                              
VFR CONDS THRU 09Z THEN CIGS/VSBY DROP TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF PCPN               
BTWN 09-13Z ACRS TAF SITES. A 2-4 HR WINDOW OF SNPL AND RA BFR CHGOVR           
TO RAIN WITH IFR CONDS DVLPG WITH LIFR PSBL THRU REST OF FCST PERIOD.           
LLWS OF 40 KTS WL LKLY DVLP ARD 1.5-2K BTWN 06-09Z.                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
NOTE: THIS IS THE LAST DAY OF THE 2005 SEASON FOR THE FWF/FWM. PER              
AN ERH MANDATE THOUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DO FIRE WX GFE GRAPHICS             
YEAR-ROUND.                                                                     
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
SOME MIXED PCPN EXPECTED ACRS THE FA EARLY TODAY (WITH AOB 0.5" OF              
LIQUID)...THEN EXPECTED QPF AFTER THAT (THRU 00Z THU) LOOKS TO BE               
ANOTHER 1-2" OF LIQUID POSSIBLE. THIS JIVES PRETTY WELL WITH THE                
LATEST NERFC QPS. EARLIER NERFC RUNS SHOWED NO REAL PROBLEMS ON ANY             
OF THE MAJOR RIVERS. MUCH OF THE EXPECTED QPF LOOKS TO BE CONVECTIVE            
AS WELL...SO IT SHOULDN/T NECESSARILY AFFECT ALL BASINS.                        
ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...                                     
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                             
900 AM PST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...UPPER LEVEL                 
RIDGE NOW DOMINATING THE REGION AS RUC AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS BOTH              
SHOW A STRONG ANTICYCLONE NOW PARKED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.                  
WILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...AS SUBSIDENCE             
FROM THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE               
OVER THE WEST COAST. CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS HIGH                 
PRESSURE AREA TO BE A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN THAT MAY                  
PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE              
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST...A DEEP TROF EXIST OVER THE CENTER              
OF THE COUNTRY WITH COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS               
COLD AIR IS GENERATING A RATHER STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM                
MONTANA/IDAHO TO CALIFORNIA...WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT ALONG                 
THE SIERRA RANGE. THIS PATTERN IS CREATING A GOOD OFFSHORE WIND FLOW            
THAT MAY PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER                     
ELEVATIONS. WHILE STRONG WIND REPORTS THIS MORNING ARE STILL RATHER             
ISOLATED...AFTERNOON HEATING FROM DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR             
MORE WIDE SPREAD STRONG WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS              
THINKING SO NO UPDATES NEEDED. OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT ANOTHER WARM             
DAY WITH LIGHT VALLEY AND FOOTHILL WINDS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL               
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z (1000 PST) TODAY              
AS A RESULT OF FOG AND INVERSION CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO            
VFR AROUND 20Z (NOON) TODAY WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES PERSISTING IN A              
FEW LOCALITIES. FOG WILL REFORM TONIGHT IN THE VALLEY AND                       
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR BY 08Z (MIDNIGHT)             
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. REFER TO TERMINAL                   
FORECASTS KFAT...KBFL...AND KMCE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.                          
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/                                    
MOLINA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1255 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONCERN WITH TIMING OF TSRA. CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING BACK TEMPO              
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT. HOWEVER WITH INCREASED PRESSURE                
FALL IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE MOVING INTO            
THE MS VLY ANTICIPATE A RAPID NORTHWARD RESPONSE TO BEGIN SOON. KILX            
BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASE IN DISCRETE CELL ALONG/NORTH OF WARM                 
FRONT. KEPT THE STRONGEST FORECAST FOR WINDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH            
SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AS LOW LIFTS TO OUR                   
NORTH...GUSTS TO 60KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT MAINTAINED G45KT            
AS CHANCES FOR SVR TSRA AT INDIVIDUAL SITES LOWER. LES SHOULD REMAIN            
NO LOWER THAN MVFR WED WITH STRONG WEST FETCH LIMITING RESIDENCE                
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IMMINENT...                                 
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF DEEPENING 5H TROF ACROSS             
ERN KS. WINCHESTER AND WOLCOTT PROFILES RESPONDING WITH DRAMATIC MID            
LEVEL SPEED INCREASE AND BACKED IN LOWER GATES. SPC MESOANALYSIS                
SHOWING 0-1KM SR HELICITIES 400-650 M2/S2 IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WARM             
FRONT ACROSS SRN IL/IN. NAM12 TAKES SFC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST AND                 
RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL DEEPENING OF AROUND 160M AT            
7H 21Z TUE-09Z WED. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTH IN             
BRINGING EVERY BIT OF PROGGED NAM/RUC 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 300-500               
WITH TREMENDOUS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON ORDER OF 70-90KTS. LOWER               
60S DPS ALREADY INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA SO DONT THINK LACK OF                     
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE OUTBREAK WITH MOISTURE TAP OVER GRADUALLY             
REDUCING STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE NOW FOR POTENTIAL LONG-TRACK            
TORNDAOES. MUCAPES INCREASE TO NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS                          
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD BEHIND COLD                
FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS...LEWP/BOW                
STRUCTURE WITH PRIMARILY SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHTLINE WIND DAMAGE AND               
SECONDARLY A TORNADO RISK AS HELICITY REMAINS HIGH IN EXTREMELY LOW             
LCL ENVIRONMENT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED AT 413 AM)                                           
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...               
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE             
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                 
130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO BASE OF DEEP CENTRAL CONUS              
TROUGH THIS MORNING AND HELPING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TODAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE                 
NORTHEAST AS UPPER JET MAX ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH. AS LOW DEEPENS AND            
MOVES NORTH...WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR OHIO RIVER WILL MOVE NORTH AS            
WELL. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AS STRONG 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET              
RIDES OVER TOP. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING WARM FRONT AND                  
ASSOCIATED LIFT AND PCPN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR                 
LOOPS SHOW THIS ALREADY BEGINNING. HAVE ADDED SOME TIMING TO GRIDS              
THIS MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND CATEGORICAL POPS FAR            
SOUTH...TRENDING TO CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING.                     
BREAK IN PCPN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS SURFACE              
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVE NORTH. WILL NOT TRY AND DEPICT               
THIS IN GRIDS DUE TO DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING. WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE             
TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO 60S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOWER 60S. COMBINATION             
OF THIS VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...IMPRESSIVE WIND            
FIELDS...AND STRONG COLD FRONT...LEAD TO THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE                
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY SPC FOR OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM              
BULK SHEAR AND HELICITY AS SEEN IN THE NAM. 00Z 0-1KM HELICITY IN               
THE 300-400 M2/S2 RANGE OVER ENTIRE CWA WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AROUND            
40KTS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES IN EXCESS              
OF 60KTS. INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE BY ANY MEANS OVER OUR AREA BUT             
ENOUGH LOW END INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE HELICITY                 
VALUES TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION.              
FIRST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING                
NORTH. STORMS RIGHT ALONG FRONT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME                   
SURFACE BASED AND TAP INTO THE IMPRESSIVE HELICITY. LARGE HAIL ALSO             
POSSIBLE WITH THESE ROTATING STORMS AS FREEZING LEVELS FAVORABLE                
AROUND 10KFT. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS                  
EVENING...SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE                  
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS AND IMPRESSIVE 500MB 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF               
OVER 200M...INTENSE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE            
SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE INTENSE                  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND EVENT THAT OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 6TH               
WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.                                                    
EVERYONE SHOULD MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL                 
MEDIA STATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER                
SHOULD ANY WARNINGS BE ISSUED.                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING             
WEDNESDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROF SHIFTS EAST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL               
SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL TO                
MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION                
WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL WARMING WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STEADY OR                   
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES               
FALL TO BETWEEN -12C TO -14C PER NAM AND GFS...WITH MAX DELTA T                 
VALUES OVER 20.  LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE            
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE              
LOW...FETCH NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE WITH WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY                
GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWEST LAST IN THE DAY. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION            
TO BE LIGHT AND ON GRASSY AREAS DUE TO INITIALLY WARM CONDITIONS...             
AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO                      
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. INVERSIONS HEIGHTS              
LOWER RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END              
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MAV MOS AND NAM MOS LOOK A LITTLE TOO COLD WITH            
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS...SO WENT                
CLOSE TO 25F OVER MOST AREAS. KEPT A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN                
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DUE TO SLOWER ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT OF             
TROF IN LOW ZONAL FLOW...WENT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT ONGOING             
FORECAST. ALSO...GFS THICKNESS STAY BELOW 1290 METERS OVER NEARLY               
ALL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND BELOW 1280 FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WENT WITH               
JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND A                
CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                    
GIVEN PATTERN WITH SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN              
ABOUT EVERY TWO DAYS...CONSIDERED ADDING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION             
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT FELT THIS WAS A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO             
TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING...SO LEFT DRY FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE CANADIAN             
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE                    
POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE TO             
HOLD OFF WITH INTRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION.                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR             
     LMZ043-LMZ046.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM....SKIPPER                                                            
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1215 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IMMINENT...                                 
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF DEEPENING 5H TROF ACROSS             
ERN KS. WINCHESTER AND WOLCOTT PROFILES RESPONDING WITH DRAMATIC MID            
LEVEL SPEED INCREASE AND BACKED IN LOWER GATES. SPC MESOANALYSIS                
SHOWING 0-1KM SR HELICITIES 400-650 M2/S2 IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WARM             
FRONT ACROSS SRN IL/IN. NAM12 TAKES SFC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST AND                 
RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL DEEPENING OF AROUND 160M AT            
7H 21Z TUE-09Z WED. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTH IN             
BRINGING EVERY BIT OF PROGGED NAM/RUC 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 300-500               
WITH TREMENDOUS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON ORDER OF 70-90KTS. LOWER               
60S DPS ALREADY INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA SO DONT THINK LACK OF                     
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE OUTBREAK WITH MOISTURE TAP OVER GRADUALLY             
REDUCING STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE NOW FOR POTENTIAL LONG-TRACK            
TORNDAOES. MUCAPES INCREASE TO NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS                          
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD BEHIND COLD                
FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS...LEWP/BOW                
STRUCTURE WITH PRIMARILY SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHTLINE WIND DAMAGE AND               
SECONDARLY A TORNADO RISK AS HELICITY REMAINS HIGH IN EXTREMELY LOW             
LCL ENVIRONMENT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED AT 413 AM)                                           
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...               
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE             
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                 
130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO BASE OF DEEP CENTRAL CONUS              
TROUGH THIS MORNING AND HELPING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TODAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE                 
NORTHEAST AS UPPER JET MAX ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH. AS LOW DEEPENS AND            
MOVES NORTH...WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR OHIO RIVER WILL MOVE NORTH AS            
WELL. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AS STRONG 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET              
RIDES OVER TOP. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING WARM FRONT AND                  
ASSOCIATED LIFT AND PCPN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR                 
LOOPS SHOW THIS ALREADY BEGINNING. HAVE ADDED SOME TIMING TO GRIDS              
THIS MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND CATEGORICAL POPS FAR            
SOUTH...TRENDING TO CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING.                     
BREAK IN PCPN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS SURFACE              
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVE NORTH. WILL NOT TRY AND DEPICT               
THIS IN GRIDS DUE TO DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING. WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE             
TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO 60S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOWER 60S. COMBINATION             
OF THIS VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...IMPRESSIVE WIND            
FIELDS...AND STRONG COLD FRONT...LEAD TO THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE                
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY SPC FOR OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM              
BULK SHEAR AND HELICITY AS SEEN IN THE NAM. 00Z 0-1KM HELICITY IN               
THE 300-400 M2/S2 RANGE OVER ENTIRE CWA WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AROUND            
40KTS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES IN EXCESS              
OF 60KTS. INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE BY ANY MEANS OVER OUR AREA BUT             
ENOUGH LOW END INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE HELICITY                 
VALUES TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION.              
FIRST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING                
NORTH. STORMS RIGHT ALONG FRONT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME                   
SURFACE BASED AND TAP INTO THE IMPRESSIVE HELICITY. LARGE HAIL ALSO             
POSSIBLE WITH THESE ROTATING STORMS AS FREEZING LEVELS FAVORABLE                
AROUND 10KFT. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS                  
EVENING...SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE                  
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS AND IMPRESSIVE 500MB 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF               
OVER 200M...INTENSE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE            
SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE INTENSE                  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND EVENT THAT OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 6TH               
WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.                                                    
EVERYONE SHOULD MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL                 
MEDIA STATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER                
SHOULD ANY WARNINGS BE ISSUED.                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING             
WEDNESDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROF SHIFTS EAST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL               
SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL TO                
MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION                
WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL WARMING WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STEADY OR                   
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES               
FALL TO BETWEEN -12C TO -14C PER NAM AND GFS...WITH MAX DELTA T                 
VALUES OVER 20.  LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE            
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE              
LOW...FETCH NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE WITH WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY                
GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWEST LAST IN THE DAY. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION            
TO BE LIGHT AND ON GRASSY AREAS DUE TO INITIALLY WARM CONDITIONS...             
AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO                      
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. INVERSIONS HEIGHTS              
LOWER RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END              
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MAV MOS AND NAM MOS LOOK A LITTLE TOO COLD WITH            
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS...SO WENT                
CLOSE TO 25F OVER MOST AREAS. KEPT A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN                
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DUE TO SLOWER ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT OF             
TROF IN LOW ZONAL FLOW...WENT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT ONGOING             
FORECAST. ALSO...GFS THICKNESS STAY BELOW 1290 METERS OVER NEARLY               
ALL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND BELOW 1280 FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WENT WITH               
JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND A                
CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                    
GIVEN PATTERN WITH SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN              
ABOUT EVERY TWO DAYS...CONSIDERED ADDING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION             
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT FELT THIS WAS A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO             
TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING...SO LEFT DRY FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE CANADIAN             
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE                    
POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE TO             
HOLD OFF WITH INTRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST THIS PACKAGE. KEPT GENERAL TREND OF               
PREVIOUS PACKAGES. IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS                  
MORNING IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.            
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS REMAINDER OF NIGHT SO LOWER VIS POSSIBLE            
ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS. WARM FRONT NEAR OHIO RIVER LIFTS NORTH                   
OVERNIGHT AND RAINFALL BEGINS TO AFFECT TAF SITES BETWEEN 14 AND                
18Z. INSTABILITY NOT AS GREAT INITIALLY SO HAVE OPTED FOR RAIN AND              
NO THUNDER AT TAF SITES WITH THIS WAVE. ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE                
AROUND BUT TIMING AND LOCATION SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 12Z                 
PACKAGE. STRONG WIND FIELD AND POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE             
FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND            
EARLY EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED TSRA CHANCES AT BOTH SITES WITH THIS               
LINE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR             
     LMZ043-LMZ046.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM....SKIPPER                                                            
AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
345 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
...ACTIVE WX NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH            
THIS EVENING AND COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...                
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                             
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON             
AND INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL             
OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME               
TORNADOES.                                                                      
THE DYNAMICS ARE VERY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A LOW LEVEL JET              
AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS                 
EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE             
GREAT LAKES STATES.                                                             
AT MID AFTERNOON...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUPERCELLS...            
SOME TORNADIC WAS ENTERING LMK FA AND WILL RACE EAST ACROSS THE AREA            
THIS EVENING. A SECOND LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY CATCH             
UP WITH THE FIRST LINE. SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE LINES                
MERGE.                                                                          
THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.             
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES WITHIN 3 HOURS AFTER            
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE USED A BLEND OF CURRENT MOVEMENT...NAM AND RUC            
FOR FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOST AS GUIDANCE FOR            
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE ONLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER                   
MORNING LOWS AS BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR               
ACROSS THE AREA.                                                                
.LONG TERM  (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)                                   
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A SLOW             
WARMING TOWARD THE WEEKEND.                                                     
HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE ONGOING SEVERE            
WEATHER.                                                                        
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
SCHOLZ                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
442 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO TRACK THE SFC LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...              
TAKING IT WEST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z THEN TO THE DOOR PENINSULA OF WI BY            
06Z. 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WILL CAUSE              
THE LOW TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TO 987 MB BY 06Z AS IT EJECTS TO THE NNE.             
THE H5 TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY THAT TIME TOO.                        
IT APPEARS THAT THE SE CWFA... FROM AZO TO JXN AND LAN WILL GET INTO            
THE WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT               
SWEEPS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE SW. THINKING THE MOST LIKELY SVR WEATHER             
SCENARIO IS THAT A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION WITH DAMAGING WIND                 
GUSTS WILL RACE RAPIDLY NE...CLIPPING THE SE CWFA. TORNADO THREAT               
EXISTS AS WELL GIVEN EXTREMELY HIGH LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ON THE                 
ORDER OF 400-500 M2/S2. WE'LL HAVE TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS            
SEEN IN LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT                  
THOUGH...AND THAT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.                                         
DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN AFTER 06Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD SHUT              
THE PCPN OFF FOR A WHILE. THIS IS ALSO WHEN THE STRONG GUSTY                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS WILL KICK IN. COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AS              
WELL...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS                  
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING... PARTICULARLY IN THE WRN CWFA.                      
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WRAPS INTO THE             
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER H8 TEMPS (AROUND                 
-10C) CONTINUES POURING IN. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME                 
NUMEROUS FOR THE AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE                     
RESTRICTED TO MAINLY GRASSY SURFACE. HOWEVER ANY HEAVIER/PERSISTENT             
BANDS COULD BRING SOME ACCUMS ON ROADS. AM GENERALLY USING WORDING              
OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE FCST.                                                 
H8 THERMAL TROUGH AROUND -15C COMES IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                   
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THUS WE WILL HAVE A BETTER            
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO STICK AND FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER DRIVING               
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL COME AS A SHOCK TO MANY AS IT WILL             
BE THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AFTER SUCH A MILD FALL. USUALLY THE            
FIRST SNOW EVENT RESULTS IN SOME CARS IN DITCHES (EVEN IF IT'S JUST             
AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION)...AS PEOPLE ARE NOT ACCLIMATED TO OR             
PREPARED FOR THE CONDITIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY THURSDAY                
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY DIMINISH TO                   
FLURRIES.                                                                       
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO               
THE REGION FRIDAY AND ANOTHER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE               
CWA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON                
FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING A BIT WARMER AIR NORTH INTO THE               
CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WON/T            
BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP              
SOUTH SATURDAY. MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE                   
CWA...BUT ENOUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHSN.             
THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HAVE SOME DECENT DPVA TOO. WE/LL CONTINUE              
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND TRANSITION TO SHSN             
SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -10C OVER THE LAKE...CREATING            
DELTA T/S NEAR 20C. THAT AIR QUICKLY WARMS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEST            
WIND DEVELOPS AND RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER                  
TROUGH. AFTER A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY                
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. GFS SHOWS COLDER AIR                  
BEHIND THAT WAVE...-13C 850 MB AIR...BY TUESDAY MORNING. WE/LL GO               
WITH SHSN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LAKE              
SNOW POTENTIAL.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH            
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM ST. JOSEPH TO              
MANISTEE.                                                                       
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SW MI FROM 10 PM TONIGHT TO NOON WEDNESDAY             
FOR SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MEADE 93                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
416 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINTER STORM FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND               
POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT BAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                    
CURRENT WEATHER...19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED RIDGES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND FROM FLORIDA INTO THE                    
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH              
WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT. WITHIN THE TROUGH...SHRTWVS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS             
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AT 250MB AT 12Z...THERE WAS A 110KT JET ON            
THE SE SIDE OF THE KANSAS SHRTWV...WHICH HAS NOW PROPAGATED                     
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PER PROFILER DATA. ANOTHER JET MAX OF ABOUT             
THE SAME MAGNITUDE CAN BE SEEN REDEVELOPING IN SE KANSAS. AHEAD OF              
THE SE KANSAS SHRTWV...WARM ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH PROFILERS                  
SHOWING 850MB WINDS OF 50 KT OR MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE              
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHTS FALLS FROM THE             
SHRTWV MOVING EASTWARD IS INDUCING PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1             
TO 2 MB/HR NEAR PEORIA ILLINOIS. THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW...WHICH HAS             
A PRESSURE OF 1000MB...IS LOCATED NEAR SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS. THE                
WARM FRONT THEN EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO INDIANAPOLIS AND               
PITTSBURGH. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS                
SHOW RAIN SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN                
ILLINOIS AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS DUE TO              
ISENTROPIC LIFTING OF THE WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT             
(TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S). TO THE NW OF THE               
LOW EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH GOES ALL THE WAY INTO SE                 
MANITOBA...AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LIGHT              
SNOW IS OCCURRING ALONG THE TROUGH IN WESTERN MINNESOTA...BUT THE               
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE NW SIDE OF               
THE LOW. LOCATIONS IN WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE ALREADY            
SEEN MODERATE SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER 1/2SM.                               
WINTER STORM DETAILS...                                                         
TRACK...                                                                        
DESPITE THAT THE EVENT IS NOW WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THERE ARE             
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. EVEN BY                     
00Z...THERE IS A RANGE FROM THE 12Z RUC13 WHICH IS NEAR ROCKFORD TO             
THE 12Z GFS WHICH IS NE OF CHICAGO. THE 12Z NAM LIES ABOUT HALFWAY              
INBETWEEN. THEREFORE...BY 12Z WED...THE LOW TRACK RANGES FROM JUST              
NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS (RUC13) TO ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF WAWA ONTARIO            
(GFS/CANADIAN REGIONAL). THIS DIFFERENCE MEANS A LOT FOR WIND AND               
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTS. TRENDS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS ARE                 
FARTHER WEST WITH THE GFS AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE RUC13...CLOSING             
IN ON THE NAM SOLUTION. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE NAM...ESPECIALLY              
SINCE IT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK. NEW 18Z NAM IS ALSO             
CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK. LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM WILL BE USED               
FOR DETAILS.                                                                    
INTENSITY...                                                                    
NCEP WRF REMAINS THE DEEPEST OF ALL MODELS WITH THE LOW...REACHING              
972MB AT CARIBOU ISLAND AT 12Z WED. LOCAL NAM ALSO HAS A 974MB                  
PRESSURE. NAM IS A BIT HIGHER AT 979MB WITH THE GFS AT 985MB. TEND              
TO BELIEVE THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS WILL PAN OUT DUE TO MANY FACTORS:               
PLENTY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW RELEASING LATENT HEAT...LOW               
MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE WATERS...THE STRONG SHRTWV MOVING NE              
CAUSING RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND THE INTENSE WARM ADVECTION. CURRENT              
PRESSURE FALLS ALSO GIVE INDICATION TO A STRONGER LOW.                          
PRECIPITATION...                                                                
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AT A RAPID RATE ACROSS WISCONSIN             
AND LOWER MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE             
LOW. NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS DOES THE              
PREVIOUS FORECAST...INDICATING PRECIPITATION COVERING MOST OF THE               
CWA BY 00Z. AS FOR THE TYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION                
INITIALLY STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA DUE TO THE                 
INITIAL WARM LEVELS. IRON MOUNTAIN AND IRONWOOD RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE            
MID 30S. HOWEVER...HAVE PUT IN A POTENTIAL MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN THE              
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS RAIN MIX SHOULD BE BRIEF OUT IN THE              
WEST AS THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT COOLS THE COLUMN. SO BY                           
01Z...EVERYTHING WEST OF A LINE FROM NEGAUNEE TO IRON MOUNTAIN                  
SHOULD BE SNOW. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER AND INTENSIFIES                         
TONIGHT...CAUSING INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID-LEVELS DUE TO             
DEFORMATION...THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO INTENSIFY. FOR THE WEST               
HALF OF THE U.P....THE BEST SYNOPTIC OMEGA WILL INTERSECT THE PRIME             
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER BETWEEN 12000-15000 FEET. THIS SNOW WILL            
THEN FALL THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF -5 TO -8C TEMPERATURES...YIELDING             
EXCELLENT AGGREGATION. ALSO...WITH THE WINDS NORTHEASTERLY...UPSLOPE            
WILL OCCUR FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST...RESULTING IN MORE               
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. FINALLY...SINCE 850MB                 
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -5 TO -6C AND LAKE TEMPS AROUND                    
+6C...THIS WILL PROVIDE A VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR LAKE                        
ENHANCEMENT. THEREFORE...VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 2 TO 3               
INCHES PER HOUR MAY OCCUR FROM THE WEST TO NORTH CENTRAL UPPER                  
MICHIGAN. THE BEST TIME FOR ALL THE PARAMETERS DESCRIBED ABOVE TO               
INTERSECT IS PLANNED FOR BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z. EASTERN HALF OF THE               
U.P. SHOULD STAY MAINLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AFTER               
MIDNIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SYNOPTIC                    
PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE AREA.  850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL IN             
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM (PROGGED AT 12Z OF              
-7C AND AT 00Z OF -12 TO -15C)...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT TO TAKE OVER.             
DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW AREAS IN THE                
WESTERN U.P. TO GET ANOTHER 4 TO 7 INCHES. AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE              
SHOULD ALSO GET INTO THE LAKE EFFECT. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR             
ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES BECAUSE OF LAKE EFFECT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO            
HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN ALL THE OTHER HEADLINES RIGHT NOW.                       
WINDS...                                                                        
AS THE LOW DEEPENS TONIGHT AND TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORELINE OF            
LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARDS GRAND MARAIS...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE            
ON LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P.. RUC13 SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF              
STORM FORCE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN. FOR NOW GALE WARNINGS HAVE ONLY             
BEEN POSTED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE                 
MONITORED. HOWEVER...HAVE POSTED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN                   
SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS THE LOW               
MOVES TOWARDS CARIBOU ISLAND...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND IT.                
SOME OF THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER THE PLAINS WHERE GUSTS HAVE               
BEEN IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE WITH THE LOW ONLY AT 1000MB. RUC13 AND               
NAM BOTH SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR SO HAVE PLACED STORM WARNINGS THERE. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN              
EFFECT ELSEWHERE. HAVE PUT OUT WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALGER AND                    
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT FOR THE NW WINDS. THE OTHER HAZARD WILL BE HIGH            
WAVES DUE TO THE STORM FORCE WINDS. DERIVED WAVE OUTPUT SUGGEST                 
WAVES AS HIGH AS 20 FEET CRASHING INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF             
MARQUETTE...THEREFORE HAVE PUT OUT A LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE FOR               
THAT.                                                                           
REST OF FORECAST...                                                             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONCERN HERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT BAND ON                
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. 950MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS FROM THE NAM...GFS               
AND LOCAL HIGH RES NAM SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL AS LAKE TO 850MB                  
DELTA-T\S CLIMB ABOVE 20. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY WITH NW              
FLOW. SOUNDINGS FROM THE NEWBERRY AREA HAVE INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND            
10000 FT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. HAVE INSERTED                 
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES UNDER THIS DOMINANT BAND...BUT IT IS                  
POSSIBLE TO HAVE EVEN HIGHER. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD            
KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT MORE SCATTERED IN THE WEST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY              
SKIES IN THE SOUTH. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY DUE TO THE COLD             
850MB TEMPS MOVING IN (-15 TO -19C). MAV COOP GUIDANCE HAS A LOW OF             
2F FOR CHAMPION. HAVE LOWERED LOWS...BUT NOT TO THAT EXTENT SINCE               
THE WINDS WILL STAY UP. NONETHELESS...WIND CHILLS WILL END UP IN THE            
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.                                                       
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE                   
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO NW WINDS...BUT               
THEN END AS WINDS TURN SW AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THIS PERIOD OF               
DRYING WILL BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SE FROM             
CENTRAL MANITOBA. HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SHRTWV COMING IN              
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED             
TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO NW FLOW.                                          
EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...PREVIOUS THINKING FROM                    
YESTERDAY FOR THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK...BUT            
THERE ARE A FEW NEW THINGS TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT. FIRST IS                      
SATURDAY\S CLIPPER SHRTWV THAT COMES DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE ON                  
FRIDAY. YESTERDAY\S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINTED AT A FARTHER SOUTH                 
TRACK...BUT LATEST 00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS ARE BACK CLOSER TO BEFORE               
WITH A LOW MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW             
THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK AND GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED WITH TONIGHT\S                  
STORM...WILL FOLLOW THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. IN EITHER EVENT...KEPT             
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY                  
MORNING WITH THE CLIPPER. NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL COME DOWN THE                
WESTERN RIDGE ON SUNDAY...MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT              
AND MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS              
POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OUT OF IT THOUGH            
BECAUSE OF A LACK OF INFLOW MOISTURE EXCEPT PERHAPS FROM THE                    
PACIFIC. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY                 
BEHIND THE CLIPPER WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C SUPPORTS KEEPING             
CHANCES OF SNOW ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.                                            
COORDINATED WITH APX...GRB...ENVIRONMENT CANADA.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
   WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MIZ001>005-009-084.                    
   WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MRNG MIZ010>011.                       
   WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT 1 AM TO 6 PM EST WED MIZ007-014.                     
   WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT 5 AM TO 6 PM EST WED MIZ006-085.                     
   STORM WARNING IN EFFECT EAST 1/2 LAKE SUPERIOR                               
   GALE WARNING IN EFFECT WEST 1/2 LAKE SUPERIOR                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
100 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SPC HAS UPGRADED THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA INTO A MDT RISK...                 
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SOUTH HAVEN TO LANSING. THE               
REST OF THE AREA IS IN THE SLIGHT RISK.                                         
PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM SQUALL LINE                
TYPE EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT                  
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH ELEVATED STORMS.                                   
BASED ON LATEST PROGGED TRACK OF THE LOW TOWARD MILWAUKEE...IT IS               
APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SRN CWFA WILL GET INTO THE              
WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY FOR A TIME THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF             
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THIS CREATES A REAL TORNADO THREAT...WITH             
0-1 KM HELICITIES AROUND 400. SEE THE SWODY1 PRODUCT FROM SPC FOR               
MORE DETAILS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE AROUND 50 MPH TO THE                       
NORTHEAST... SO THINGS WILL HAPPEN FAST ONCE THEY GET GOING.                    
PER THE LATEST RUC: THE LOW SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL IL AT 21Z...LIFTING            
NNE AND DEEPENING TO 996 MB BY 00Z JUST WEST OF CHI. AT 03Z THE LOW             
SHOULD BE NORTH OF MKE AND AROUND 992 MB. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED            
TO BE ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER AT 00Z...LIFTING TO THE I96 CORRIDOR BY            
03Z. AFTER THAT... THE COLD FRONT RACES IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW AND              
SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z. HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE...                  
INCLUDING THE TORNADO THREAT...LOOKS TO BE IN THE 7-10 PM TIME                  
FRAME.                                                                          
HAVE WENT AHEAD AND POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER THIS EVENING               
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT             
AND AFTER PASSAGE OF THE LOW. BUFKIT SHOWS MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO             
45 KNOTS WINDS... ALTHOUGH 50 KNOTS LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE NE CWFA                
AROUND MT PLEASANT. SHOULD BE A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT... POSSIBLY                
BRIEFLY TOUCHING WARNING CRITERIA.                                              
SO IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY ACTIVE/BUSY SEVERE WEATHER DAY MAY BE                   
SHAPING UP FOR PARTS OF SRN LWR MI...IF THE WARM FRONT GETS IN HERE             
AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS CAN BE ERODED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH            
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM ST. JOSEPH TO              
MANISTEE.                                                                       
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SW MI FROM 10 PM TONIGHT TO NOON WEDNESDAY             
FOR SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MEADE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1257 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DETROIT AND FLINT TAF SITES THROUGH               
MOST OF THE DAY...SPREADING INTO MBS AS A WARM FRONT ALOFT                      
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL                 
REMAIN POOR WITH LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES.             
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL                
LIFT INTO MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT                
WILL CAUSE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE... AHEAD                    
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEAR                     
MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO                 
AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 60                         
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE DETROIT TAFS. AT THIS TIME HAVE INCLUDED              
WINDS TO 45 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN TAFS BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THIS            
AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION AND NATURE OF STORMS.                     
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AT ALL SITES WITH               
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45             
KNOTS. WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS              
THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS.             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO START CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY FOR OUR                      
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PRECIP HAS LIFTED INTO DETROIT NORTH OF A                    
SURFACE WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHWESTERN              
MISSOURI. A STEADY RAIN HAS ENCOMPASSED THE DETROIT METRO AREA                  
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.              
METRO PICKED UP CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH JUST IN THE PAST 2                
HOURS. THE WARM FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY EDGE NORTH THROUGH THE                
DAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING.                
THERE STILL EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IT                  
WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE WE ARE ABLE TO GET BUT GIVEN                 
THE RAIN AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY               
IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. A BETTER SCENARIO ON SEVERE                     
WEATHER FOR US WOULD BE FOR ANY DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM                  
BEING ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LLJ                   
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AROUND SUNSET AND ANY CONVECTION                 
WOULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER A LOW            
LEVEL INVERSION...SETTING UP AROUND THAT TIME...MAY BE ENOUGH TO                
KEEP STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IF LOW LEVEL CAP                   
LOSES THE BATTLE...THEN VERY GOOD BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL                      
HELICITIES WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND                 
POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. WE WILL FURTHER EXAMINE THIS                  
THREAT THROUGH THE DAY AND ALSO LOOK CLOSER AT THE HIGH WIND                    
POTENTIAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 635 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005)                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
PLENTY OF PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST AS IFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY                
DZ/BR THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO MVFR AND RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND              
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING...TO JUST PLAIN               
OLD WINDS OVERNIGHT.                                                            
THIS ALL THANKS TO A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING TO THE                
WEST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO               
THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BY THIS                
EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY            
HAVE SOME RATHER STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CULMINATE IN A                
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MID/LATE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES              
THROUGH THE AREA. IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL                
TAPER OFF...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN...GUSTING TO 30+ KNOTS             
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST                           
OVERALL FORECAST IS PRETTY EASY...WET AND WINDY...AS MAJOR STORM                
WRAPS UP TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...ARE               
VERY PROBLEMATIC. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE                 
WEATHER LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY             
OR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.                  
MODELS ALL BOMB OUT THE SURFACE LOW...BUT TRACKS/INTENSITIES VARY               
SIGNIFICANTLY. AS OF 08Z...GFS IS TOO WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE             
SURFACE LOW AND WILL DISCOUNT AS IT ENDS UP BEING THE EASTERNMOST               
SOLUTION AS LOW TRACKS THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO (AND WEAKER).              
GIVEN VERIFICATION IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...PREFER              
RUC13...WHICH IS LOCKED ON THE SURFACE LOW SO FAR. NAM IS NOT TOO               
FAR BEHIND IN ITS REPRESENTATION. THE DIFFERENCE -VS- GFS IS A MUCH             
STRONGER SURFACE LOW WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG/JUST WEST OF              
LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                                  
WITH THIS IDEA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE GREATER             
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM FRONT SHOULD RACE NORTH OF              
THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS             
THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE PARAMETER GIVEN THE SHEAR/DYNAMICS OF THE                 
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE                   
NORTHERN PORTION OF A RATHER AGGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE ON THE OCCLUDING            
COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. FOR FORECAST PURPOSES...RAIN WITH A              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL WORK AS            
ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY BY MID            
TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL THE TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE                
BASED CONVECTION ENSUES LATE IN THE DAY.                                        
AS FOR WINDS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO                
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST AND             
NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THIS PACKAGE. SETUP IS               
MARGINAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT (GUSTS OF 58+ MPH) SO OPTED TO FORGO             
THE HIGH WIND WATCH. DO EXPECT A SOLID ADVISORY (45+ MPH GUSTS) W/              
THE PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TIMING...DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A              
LOOK AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING AND 12Z                
RUNS OF MODELS TO DECIDE WHICH WAY TO GO. BASICALLY...THE CLOSE THE             
SOLUTION IS TO RUC13...THE CLOSER THE NORTHWEST CWA (I-69 NORTH AND             
ALONG/WEST OF I-75) IS TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THE TIMING &              
AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE COLD              
FRONT WILL MINIMIZE MIXING SOMEWHAT (PERHAPS KEEPING WINDS DOWN).               
ALSO...THE SYSTEM RACES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SO THE WINDOW FOR VERY             
STRONG WINDS IS LIMITED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.                 
ON A RELATED NOTE...WILL BE HOISTING A STORM WARNING FOR THE OPEN               
WATERS OF LAKE HURON...AS WELL AS OUTER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE THE                 
FUNNELING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MAXIMIZE. FROM HERE...INTO THE NORTH              
PART OF THE LAKE...EXPECT 55+ KNOT GUSTS PER RUC13/NAM SOLUTIONS.               
WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR INNER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE                 
WATERS...BUT WORD TO 45 KNOT GUSTS...JUST SHORT OF STORMS. EVEN                 
LESS TO THE SOUTH FOR LAKE ST CLAIR/WESTERN LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL               
GALES.                                                                          
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST                     
THE RUC13 WAS THUS FAR VERIFYING WELL AND FOLLOWED FOR WEDNESDAY.               
WITH A DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK...IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISE              
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY.  HOWEVER...AFTER               
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL HOLD OFF             
ON HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL WIND              
GUSTS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE                
CWA.  BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TAP INTO THE                 
50KTS BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND BEST PRESSURE RISE OCCURRING EARLY               
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIGHT NOT GET THERE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NOT                 
CHANGE MUCH AND ACTUALLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS              
BRINGS ABOUT THE TALKED ABOUT DEFORMATION AXIS AND SNOW FOR                     
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS FEATURE BUT             
SLOWER IN ARRIVING WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN THE LATE ARRIVAL AND ONLY              
IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA.  BUT COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN               
WILL GET THE LAKES ACTIVATED TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW                   
SHOWERS AND WE WILL TAPER BACK THE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.              
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE                   
GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH             
INTO CANADA.  SO OUR CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD.             
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 20S AND WITH THE WINDS EXPECT               
WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.                                 
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH LAKE AGGREGATE IN                
PLACE BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROGRESS                  
DURING THE DAY...SO SOME FLURRIES EARLY ON.  WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO              
THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE STATE...WE FIND IT HARD TO ACCEPT HIGH            
TEMPS MUCH ABOVE 35 (IF NOT 32!)...SO WE WILL UNDERCUT MACHINE                  
NUMBERS A FEW NOTCHES.  NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DIVING QUICKLY FROM THE            
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING TO              
BRING ABOUT FRIDAYS FORECAST.                                                   
MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO CALMED DOWN A BIT WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND                 
OVERALL SYNOPTIC INTENSITY.  WITH A NEARLY BELOW 0C SOUNDING...ALL              
PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW!  SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS MIGHT REMAIN              
ABOVE FREEZING SO IT STILL SEEMS ELEVATED SURFACES WILL STAND THE               
BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH              
INFLUENCE LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE TO THE QPF.                                   
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WE REMAIN IN THIS PROGRESSIVE COLD NORTHWEST            
FLOW REGIME WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR             
MORE PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EVEN HINTS             
OF A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC!                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HU
     MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                                                        
     STORM WARNING...LHZ421-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY           
     TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                                                         
     GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...M
     TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                                                         
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                    
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDN
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...SHULER                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DG                                                                 
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
AVIATION...KEK                                                                  
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1145 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO FCST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS 12Z MODEL RUNS              
STRONGLY SUPPORT GOING FCST. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER MO ATTM               
WILL LIFT TO NEAR CHICAGO THIS EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT              
HEADS NNE ACROSS FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED MORNING (CNTRL PRES                  
POSSIBLY AS LOW AS THE HIGH 970S MB). PUSHED BACK TIMING OF LIGHT               
PCPN A FEW HRS THIS AFTN BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...ONCE                
MAIN PCPN AREA LIFTS INTO UPPER MI THIS EVENING...EXPECT INTENSE                
PCPN RATES FOR A NUMBER OF HRS AS FCST AREA FALLS UNDER EXTREMELY               
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID DEEPENING OF SYSTEM THRU              
THE COLUMN. WILL NEED TO RECONSIDER A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS ON            
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED MORNING/EARLY AFTN.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 320 AM EST                                        
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENIG UPR TROF             
OVER THE WRN PLAINS WITH SVRL SGFNT SHRTWVS AND RIBBON OF H3 WINDS              
UP TO 150KT/H5 WINDS UP TO 100KT ON BACK SIDE OF TROF ADVECTING H5              
TEMPS AOB -35C S THRU MT HELPING TO INTENSIFY THIS FEATURE. THE MOST            
PRONOUNCED SHRTWV ALF IS LOCATED OVER ND...WITH ONLY WEAK INVERTED              
TROF AT THE SFC. SOME -RA/-SN OBSVD OVER MN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                
SYS. STRONGER SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING 100KT H5 WIND MAX IS PRESENT OVER             
THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH DVLPG SFC LO OVER NB. THIS SHRTWV BEGINNING            
TO INTERACT WITH GLFMEX MSTR RETURNING N (H85 DWPTS UP TO 11C/PWAT              
UP TO 1.20 INCH AS FAR N AS LIT AT 00Z) TO CAUSE OUTBREAK OF CNVCTN             
IN THE MID MS VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...FA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF              
SHRTWV RDG ACRS THE UPR UPR GRT LKS AND DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H65-7 AND            
INVRN AT H9 ON THE 00Z GRB/APX SDNGS. SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU THE              
CNTRL LKS HAS BRUSHED THE SE ZNS WITH THICKER MID CLD...BUT                     
ASSOCIATED PCPN REMAINS TO THE S. HOWEVER...SOME SC HAS DVLPD OVER              
PARTS OF THE CNTRL FA AT THE INVRN BASE AS NAM SHOWS MOISTENING ON              
THE 280K SFC (ARND H925) AS LLVL ESE FLOW ADVECTING SOMEWHAT HIER               
DWPTS OVER NRN LWR MI INTO THE U.P. UNDER THE INVRN.                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE NMRS AND INCLUDE PCPN TIMING/               
TYPE/AMTS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPR TROF TO THE W AND             
GOING HEADLINES.                                                                
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DVLPG SCENARIO WITH DEEPENING TROF               
OVER THE PLAINS GAINING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT AND FOCUSING                   
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CNTRL GRT LKS TNGT. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN                
GFS/NAM/CNDN/NGM SHOWING 998-999MB SFC LO NR CHI AT 00Z WED. SOME               
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AT F24 WITH GFS A BIT FARTHER E. GIVEN               
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS IN PLAY ATTM AS NOTED ABV AND LATENT HTG FM THE             
GRT LKS AGGREGATE/DVLPG CNVCTN IN THE MID MS VALLEY...PREFER THE                
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FARTHER W TRACK OF THE NAM/CNDN/NGM NNE UP LK MI            
AND OVER ERY INTO SE LK SUP BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z             
THU. SINCE NAM FVRD MODEL...USED ITS HIER RESOLUTION OUTPUT FOR FCST            
DETAILS. FA TO THE LEFT OF H5-7 LO TRACK FM CNTRL WI THRU THE CNTRL             
FA FM IMT TO MQT AND INTO CNTRL LK SUP TNGT WL BE IN FVRBL                      
DEFORMATION BAND AND UPSLOPE NE FLOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF SFC LO                 
TRACK. OTHER ENHANCEMENTS INCLUDE ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF             
SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA IN PRIME SN              
GROWTH LYR ARND H6...PRESENCE OF BAND OF NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT                    
POTENTIAL VORTICITY JUST ABV THE BEST FORCING INDICATING POTENTIAL              
FOR SLANTWISE/UPRIGHT CNVCTN ABV THE FA...4G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY               
AVBL ARND H7...AND LK ENHANCEMENT WITH SHARP CYC NNE FLOW IN THE                
PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS -6C TO -8C. GIVEN THESE FVRBL DYNAMICS...NAM/             
CNDN QPF ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES IN A BAND ACRS THE CNTRL              
FA FM THIS EVNG THRU WED...AND NCEP SN FCST GRAPHIC JUSTIFY UPGRADE             
OF GOING WATCH IN THE CNTRL ZNS TO A WRNG (EVEN WITH RATHER POOR                
SN/LIQUID RATIO OF 10:1) WITH SN FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1-2 INCHES              
AN HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HGT OF THE STORM BTWN 03Z-12Z WED.                  
EXPECT DRY SLOT/PCPN TYPE CONCERNS TO THE E OF IMT-MQT TO HOLD DOWN             
SN AMTS ENUF SO THAT NO HEADLINES NEEDED ATTM...ESPECIALLY SINCE                
STORM MAY END UP TRACKING A BIT FARTHER W DUE TO STRENGTH OF                    
DYNAMICS AND EVEN THOUGH DVLPG LES IN THE WAKE OF THE LO ON WED MAY             
OR MAY NOT REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR ALGER/LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT ONCE                
COLDER AIR (H85 TEMPS AOB -10C) POUR OVER LK SUP IN THE WAKE OF THE             
LO AND GENERATE LES ON WED.                                                     
AS FOR FCST DETAILS...EXPECT SGNFT PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TDAY             
WHEN NAM SHOWS INCRSG UPR DVGC/MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT             
AND MOISTENING ON THE 285K-295K SFCS AFT 21Z. PCPN TYPE WL BE A                 
CONCERN AT FIRST WITH SFC WBLB TEMPS AOA 32 EVEN RIGHT NOW. ALTHOUGH            
THICKENING CLDS TDAY WL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL RECOVERY IN TEMP...EXPECT             
AT LEAST A MIX WITH RA AT THE ONSET WITH DEPTH OF ABV FRZG LYR AOA              
1K FT EVEN AT IWD. BUT THEN UPSLOPE FLOW/DYNAMIC COOLING WITH PCPN              
INTENSITY INCRSG THIS EVENG WL COOL THE ATMOSPHERE ENUF TO CAUSE                
PCPN TO CHG TO ALL SN W OF MUNISING-MNM EARLY THIS EVNG.                        
ON WED...SYNOPTIC SCALE SN WL TRANSITION TO LES AS LO PRES/DYNAMICS             
EXIT TO THE NE. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS MAY EXIT...LINGERING BACKWASH             
MSTR IN STRG CYC NW FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO AND IN            
ADVANCE OF A SECOND SHRTWV DIGGING IN BEHIND THE MAIN SHRTWV MAY ACT            
AS A PSEUDO-LK ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM WITH COLD AIR POURING OVER THE             
LK (H85 TEMPS DOWN AS LO AS -16C BY LATE IN THE DAY PER NAM/ UKMET).            
LES CHART SUGS 1-3" LK ENHANCEMENT/6 HRS FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS.               
BEST CHC FOR GREATER ACCUMS UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 7 INCHES DURING THE             
DAY WL BE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES               
LATE IN THE DAY. ACRS THE E...GREATER SHSN CHCS WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL             
LATER IN THE MRNG WHEN THE WIND SHIFTS TO MORE NW. OTRW...NAM SHOWS             
50KT WINDS AS LO AS 3KT FT. AS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE LAST FEW                 
STORMS...THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WL NOT BE IN LINE WITH THE GRADIENT               
FLOW (IN FACT MORE PERPENDICULAR)...SO GOING HI GALE ON THE LK                  
APPEARS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A STORM WRNG EVEN THOUGH LLVL LAPSE               
RATES SHARPEN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. LES WL CONT WED NGT                   
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...BUT APRCH OF SFC RDG WL DIMINISH THE                    
ACTIVITY AFTR MIDNGT OVER THE W UNLESS SLOWER GFS VERIFIES.                     
COORDINATED WITH NCEP/GRB/DLH/ENVIRONMENT CAN.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
   WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MIZ001>005-009-084.                    
   WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MRNG MIZ010>011.                       
   GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
105 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MESOSCALE UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND             
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. 18Z                   
SOUNDINGS REVEAL AN INTERESTING SCENARIO ACROSS REGION. 18Z JAN                 
SOUNDING HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL            
CAP HAVING DEVELOPED. FARTHER SW...LCH SOUNDING IS QUITE UNSTABLE               
WITH SBCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG...BUT FAIRLY WEAK WIND PROFILE. MID LEVEL            
WINDS MUCH STRONGER TO THE NW WHERE LZK HAD 65 KT AT 500 MB ON 18Z              
SOUNDING.                                                                       
18Z RUC WOULD SEEM TO IMPLY THAT BEST OVERLAY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND            
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS GENERALLY N/E OF I-55 AND I-20.               
MLCAPE VALUES APCHG 1500 J/KG EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA ALONG WITH 0-1            
KM SR HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. DEEP LAYER                        
SHEAR/DYNAMICS ALSO SHOULD IMPROVE AS 20-40M 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS                
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL...THIS AREA EXPECTED TO               
HAVE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA            
DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME AS CELLS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS                  
BUILD/MOVE INTO NE AREAS AND INTENSIFY.                                         
FARTHER S/W...MAIN RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE               
LINE OF STORMS FORMING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS                
HAVE VEERED AROUND SOMEWHAT OVER AR/LA...WHICH IS LIKELY DECREASING             
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL STORMS               
THERE. AS LINE OF STORMS SWEEPS ACROSS REGION...MAIN THREAT WILL BE             
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH LEWP/BOW                   
STRUCTURES. TIMING OF FRONT/SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO BE 22Z-00Z GRENADA             
TO VICKSBURG...00Z-02Z STARKVILLE TO JACKSON METRO TO NATCHEZ...                
02Z-05Z ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR.                                       
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-          
     MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ032-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-                   
     MSZ043-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ059-MSZ060-                   
     MSZ061.                                                                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-               
     MSZ025-MSZ034-MSZ035.                                                      
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-          
     LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.                          
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
308 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.        
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL                   
TROF EXTENDING FM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO ERN NEB AND KS WITH                 
700MB LOW ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL IOWA AT 20Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS                
SHOWS 1000MB LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL WITH INVERTED TROF AXIS               
EXTENDING INTO NRN MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1034MB                       
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS CREATING QUITE THE                      
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB WINDS REMAIN                 
STRONG WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOWING 50KTS OFF FIRST FEW                      
GATES. WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED OVER 30 MPH ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS              
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 52 MPH IN BOTH FET AND                
OFK. MOST GUSTS HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 MPH WITH EXTENSIVE              
CLOUD COVER LIMITING FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL. LIGHT SNOW               
CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EXTREME ERN NEB WHERE BEST LIFT HAS                    
BEEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE BEEN RECEIVING               
REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW IN PLACES...EVEN THOUGH SNOW HAS BEEN                   
SLUSHY AND AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED QUITE LOW WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES COMMON.           
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS                
EVENING AS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ASSOCIATED                 
LIFT SHIFTS EAST. WINDS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY            
AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY                
UNTIL 8PM TO COVER LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.                 
OTHERWISE...HAVE DOWNGRADED HIGH WIND WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY                
SINCE IT HAS BEEN A STRETCH TO MEET CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...WIND                  
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z WED.                             
RH PROFILES INDICATE STRONG DRYING AFTER 06Z AND WITH                           
THAT...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S BY                      
SUNRISE. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL INDICES WILL                
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.                                              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGH                   
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY         
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS A STRONG                
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.                
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE                   
LOOKS LIMITED THIS FAR SOUTH SO WL REMOVE SMALL POPS BUT CONTINUE               
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SKIRTS THE                  
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...THE                     
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SO                
WILL JUST COVER THIS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL A              
GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S              
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-            
     NEZ045-NEZ052-NEZ053-NEZ067-NEZ068.                                        
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR             
     NEZ034-NEZ045-NEZ052-NEZ053-NEZ067-NEZ068-NEZ090-NEZ091-                   
     NEZ092-NEZ093.                                                             
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ015-NEZ032-NEZ033-           
     NEZ042-NEZ043-NEZ044-NEZ050-NEZ051-NEZ065-NEZ066-NEZ078-                   
     NEZ088-NEZ089.                                                             
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-NEZ012-NEZ016-           
     NEZ017-NEZ018-NEZ030-NEZ031.                                               
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-            
     IAZ055-IAZ056-IAZ069-IAZ079-IAZ080-IAZ090-IAZ091.                          
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR             
     IAZ043-IAZ055-IAZ056-IAZ069-IAZ079-IAZ080-IAZ090-IAZ091.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
320 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...DRY FALL LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FLOW              
AROUND THE HEMISPHERE HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A COUPLE OF                
WEAK REX BLOCKS SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.               
THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AND REMAIN            
IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. DRY NORTHERLY TO                  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS...WITH COOL                     
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.                                                     
IN THE SHORT TERM...WIND AND RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT                 
UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN THAT ADVISORY                  
CRITERIA WINDS COULD CONTIUE ONE OR TWO HOURS BEYOND 6 PM...AS 0-1KM            
MEAN WINDS STAY UP AROUND 30 KNOTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...COLD                    
ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BOTH BE WANING...PROVIDING LITTLE                 
IMPETUS TO MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND BREAK THROUGH THE              
DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION. BEST DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE ALONG              
THE RED RIVER...WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE ALREADY MARGINAL...SO WILL GO             
AHEAD AND LET THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE. THE BIGGER STORY BY                   
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES...AND A HARD FREEZE WITH            
TEMPERATURES UNDER 28 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH            
OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN               
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE RUC               
AND ETA ARE HANDLING DEWPOINTS FAIRLY WELL IN THE SOURCE REGION OF              
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS WILL            
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WILL GO LOWER THAN              
GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH                        
TEXAS...WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. ELSEWHWERE...THE ONLY AREA                
THAT MAY AVOID A HARD FREEZE LOOKS TO BE SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH            
THE WARMEST SOILS AND 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS. THIS AREA SHOULD STILL HIT            
THE FREEZING MARK.                                                              
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...EACH DAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SIMILAR THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE VERY WELL ON THE LARGE                 
SCALE PATTERN...FEATURING FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING                  
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE DETAILS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL             
MAKE AN IMPACT ON DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERALL...A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO                
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT ONE SHOWING UP IN            
THE MODELS THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS WERE NOT TOO FAR              
OFF...BUT DEVELOPED SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURE OVER THE PACIFIC                     
NORTHWEST WHICH AFFECTS TIMING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. GOING BY             
THE 00Z GFS...EXPECT ONE WEAK SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY...ANOTHER ON                  
SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER ON MONDAY. THIS TIMING WOULD HELP KEEP                   
TEMPERATURES UP AT NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION...THEN PUT A LID ON                
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH COLD ADVECTION. EVEN IF THIS CHANGES...THERE               
SHOULD BE NO EXTREME TEMPERATURE CHANGES...AND WITH VERY DRY LOW                
LAYERS...SUSPECT THESE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL ONLY PRODUCE VIRGA              
OR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE               
MISSOURI RIVER.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  24  50  30  57 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         23  52  29  63 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  28  53  30  64 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           17  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     22  49  26  56 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         30  52  30  59 /   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-          
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-                   
     OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-                   
     OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-                   
     OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-                   
     OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-                   
     OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                 
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR             
     OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-                   
     OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-                   
     OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-                   
     OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-                   
     OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-                   
     OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                                      
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-             
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-                   
     OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-                   
     OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-                   
     OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-                   
     OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ044.                                                      
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ032-OKZ041-             
     OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-                   
     OKZ052.                                                                    
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-          
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR             
     TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-             
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087.                                                      
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ088-TXZ089-             
     TXZ090.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/BURKE                                                                        
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